自我拆台的战争
反恐战争是一个错误的比喻,它导致了适得其反、自我挫败的政策。9/11 事件五年后,一个被字面理解、具有误导性的修辞,释放出了一场在多条战线——伊拉克、加沙、黎巴嫩、阿富汗、索马里——上真实进行的战争,这场战争已造成数千无辜平民死亡,并激怒了全世界数百万人。然而,基地组织并未被压制;一个可能造成比 9/11 更多受害者的阴谋,刚刚因英国情报机构的警惕而被挫败。
The war on terror is a false metaphor that has led to counterproductive and self-defeating policies. Five years after 9/11, a misleading figure of speech applied literally has unleashed a real war fought on several fronts — Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Somalia — a war that has killed thousands of innocent civilians and enraged millions around the world. Yet al Qaeda has not been subdued; a plot that could have claimed more victims than 9/11 has just been foiled by the vigilance of British intelligence.
不幸的是,“反恐战争”这个比喻被美国公众不加批判地接受,视作对 9/11 事件的理所当然的反应。如今,入侵伊拉克已被广泛承认是一个严重失误。但反恐战争依然是美国政策必须套入的框架。大多数民主党政客也认同它,因为害怕被贴上防御软弱的标签。
Unfortunately, the “war on terror” metaphor was uncritically accepted by the American public as the obvious response to 9/11. It is now widely admitted that the invasion of Iraq was a blunder. But the war on terror remains the frame into which American policy has to fit. Most Democratic politicians subscribe to it for fear of being tagged as weak on defense.
是什么让反恐战争自我挫败?
What makes the war on terror self-defeating?
• 第一,战争本身就会制造无辜受害者。针对恐怖分子的战争更可能伤及无辜,因为恐怖分子往往隐藏行踪。平民的死亡、受伤和屈辱,会在其家人和社区中引发愤怒和怨恨,这反过来又为恐怖分子赢得了支持。
• First, war by its very nature creates innocent victims. A war waged against terrorists is even more likely to claim innocent victims because terrorists tend to keep their whereabouts hidden. The deaths, injuries and humiliation of civilians generate rage and resentment among their families and communities that in turn serves to build support for terrorists.
• 第二,恐怖主义是一个抽象概念。它将所有使用恐怖手段的政治运动混为一谈。基地组织、哈马斯、真主党、逊尼派叛乱以及伊拉克的马赫迪军,是截然不同的力量,但布什总统的全球反恐战争使我们无法区分它们,并区别对待。它抑制了与伊朗和叙利亚等支持恐怖组织的国家进行迫切需要的谈判。
• Second, terrorism is an abstraction. It lumps together all political movements that use terrorist tactics. Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Sunni insurrection and the Mahdi army in Iraq are very different forces, but President Bush’s global war on terror prevents us from differentiating between them and dealing with them accordingly. It inhibits much-needed negotiations with Iran and Syria because they are states that support terrorist groups.
• 第三,反恐战争强调军事行动,而大多数领土冲突需要政治解决。而且,正如英国人所展示的,对付基地组织的最佳手段是良好的情报。反恐战争反而增加了恐怖威胁,并使情报机构的任务更加困难。奥萨马·本·拉登和艾曼·扎瓦希里仍在逃;我们需要集中精力找到他们,并阻止像英国挫败的那类袭击。
• Third, the war on terror emphasizes military action while most territorial conflicts require political solutions. And, as the British have shown, al Qaeda is best dealt with by good intelligence. The war on terror increases the terrorist threat and makes the task of the intelligence agencies more difficult. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are still at large; we need to focus on finding them, and preventing attacks like the one foiled in England.
• 第四,反恐战争在“我们”和“他们”之间制造隔阂。我们是无辜受害者,他们是施害者。但我们没有注意到,在此过程中我们也变成了施害者;然而,世界其他地区却注意到了。这就是美国和世界上大部分地区之间产生如此巨大鸿沟的原因。
• Fourth, the war on terror drives a wedge between “us” and “them.” We are innocent victims. They are perpetrators. But we fail to notice that we also become perpetrators in the process; the rest of the world, however, does notice. That is how such a wide gap has arisen between America and much of the world.
综合来看,这四个因素决定了反恐战争无法获胜。一场针对看不见的敌人的无休止战争,正在严重损害我们的国力与海外声望,以及我们国内的开放社会。它导致了行政权力的危险扩张;它玷污了我们对普世人权的坚持;它抑制了开放社会核心的批判过程;它还耗费了大量金钱。最重要的是,它转移了对其他需要美国领导力的紧迫任务的注意力,例如完成我们在阿富汗正确开始的工作、应对迫在眉睫的全球能源危机,以及处理核扩散问题。
Taken together, these four factors ensure that the war on terror cannot be won. An endless war waged against an unseen enemy is doing great damage to our power and prestige abroad and to our open society at home. It has led to a dangerous extension of executive powers; it has tarnished our adherence to universal human rights; it has inhibited the critical process that is at the heart of an open society; and it has cost a lot of money. Most importantly, it has diverted attention from other urgent tasks that require American leadership, such as finishing the job we so correctly began in Afghanistan, addressing the looming global energy crisis, and dealing with nuclear proliferation.
在美国影响力处于低谷之际,世界正面临滑入暴力不断升级的恶性循环的危险。只有我们美国人抛弃“反恐战争”这个错误比喻,才能逃脱这一困境。如果我们继续坚持错误方向,局势将持续恶化。受到考验的不是我们的意志,而是我们对现实的理解。承认我们当前的困境是由我们自身的误解造成的,这很痛苦。然而,不承认这一点,长期来看必将带来更大的痛苦。开放社会的力量在于其识别和纠正错误的能力。这就是我们面临的考验。
With American influence at low ebb, the world is in danger of sliding into a vicious circle of escalating violence. We can escape it only if we Americans repudiate the war on terror as a false metaphor. If we persevere on the wrong course, the situation will continue to deteriorate. It is not our will that is being tested, but our understanding of reality. It is painful to admit that our current predicaments are brought about by our own misconceptions. However, not admitting it is bound to prove even more painful in the long run. The strength of an open society lies in its ability to recognize and correct its mistakes. This is the test that confronts us.
索罗斯先生是金融家,著有《谬误年代:反恐战争的后果》(公共事务出版社,2006)。
Mr. Soros, a financier, is author of “The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror” (Public Affairs, 2006).