应对欧洲财政瘫痪的有效之策
之前我写过很多文章，讨论欧盟发行永续债券的可行性。但今天我要提议的是，各成员国应该自己发行永续债券。
I have written a lot in the past about the desirability of the European Union issuing perpetual bonds. But today I am proposing that individual member states should do so.
目前，欧盟不可能发行永续债券，因为成员国之间分歧太大。波兰和匈牙利否决了下一期的欧盟预算和新冠疫情复苏基金，而所谓的“节俭五国”（奥地利、丹麦、德国、荷兰和瑞典）更关心省钱，而不是为共同利益做贡献。投资者只会从他们认为在可预见的未来会继续存在的实体购买永续债券。这一点，18 世纪的英国（当时发行了统一公债）和 19 世纪的美国（当时整合了各州的债务）都曾做到。遗憾的是，如今的欧盟做不到。
Right now, it would be impossible for the EU to issue perpetual bonds, because the member states are too divided. Poland and Hungary have vetoed the next EU budget and the COVID-19 recovery fund, and the so-called Frugal Five (Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden) are more interested in saving money than in contributing to the common good. Investors will buy perpetual bonds only from an entity that they believe will continue to exist for the foreseeable future. That was true of Britain in the eighteenth century (when it issued Consols) and of the United States in the nineteenth century (when it consolidated individual states’ debt). Sadly, it is not true of the EU today.
欧盟现在处境非常艰难。第二波新冠疫情来袭，破坏力可能比第一波更可怕。成员国在第一波抗疫中已经耗尽了大部分财力。在医疗和经济复苏上的投入，仅凭“下一代欧盟”新预算和复苏基金中的 1.8 万亿欧元（2.2 万亿美元）是远远不够的。而且，这笔资金还因为匈牙利和波兰动用否决权而迟迟无法到位。
The EU finds itself in a very difficult situation. It is experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 that threatens to be even more devastating than the first. Member states used up most of their financial resources fighting the first wave. Providing health care and resuscitating the economy will require much more than the €1.8 trillion ($2.2 trillion) in the new budget and recovery fund, called Next Generation EU. In any case, the availability of those funds has been delayed by Hungary and Poland’s veto.
匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班担心，欧盟的新法治条款会对他个人及政治腐败施加实质性限制。他忧心忡忡，以至于与波兰签下具有约束力的合作协议，把那个国家也拖下水。
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is concerned that the EU’s new rule-of-law provision would impose practical limits on his personal and political corruption. He is so worried that he has concluded a binding cooperation agreement with Poland, dragging that country down with him.
结果发现，有一种简单办法可以避开否决权：启用所谓的“强化合作程序”。这一程序在《里斯本条约》中正式确立，其明确目的是为欧元区进一步一体化建立法律基础，但从未被用于此目的。它的最大优势在于可用于财政事务。成员国中的一个小型群体可以制定预算，并就融资方式达成一致——比如，通过联合债券。
It turns out that there is an easy way to overcome the veto: employ the so-called enhanced cooperation procedure. It was formalized in the Lisbon Treaty with the express purpose of creating a legal basis for further eurozone integration, but it was never used for that purpose. Its great merit is that it can be used for fiscal purposes. A sub-group of member states can set a budget and agree on a way to fund it – say, through a joint bond.
在这一点上，永续债券可能会非常有用。它们将由成员国发行，而像人寿保险公司这样的长期投资者很容易接受这些国家的持续存在。
At this point, perpetual bonds could come in very useful. They would be issued by member states whose continued existence would be readily accepted by long-term investors such as life-insurance companies.
永续债券有一个巨大的优势：本金永远无需偿还，只需支付每年的利息。未来利息支付的折现值会随时间递减——它会趋近于零，但永远不会等于零。如果用以发行永续债券而非普通债券，一定量的财政资源——比如目前计划的 1.8 万亿欧元——能发挥数倍的作用。这将基本解决欧洲的财政问题。
Perpetual bonds offer the great advantage that the principal never has to be repaid; only the annual interest is due. The discounted present value of future interest payments diminishes over time – it will approach, but never reach, zero. A certain amount of financial resources – say, the €1.8 trillion currently planned – would go several times further if it were used to issue perpetual bonds rather than ordinary bonds. This would largely solve Europe’s financial problems.
如果一个国家发行永续债券，其他欧洲国家会觉得这是一个值得效仿的榜样。节俭五国应该会发现永续债券特别有吸引力。毕竟，他们喜欢省钱。
If one country issued perpetual bonds, it would have the additional advantage that other European countries would find it an example worth following. The Frugal Five should find perpetual bonds particularly attractive. After all, they like to save money.
欧洲的保险公司及其他长期投资者对长期债券存在大量未满足的需求。起初，他们可能因为不熟悉永续债券这种工具而要求溢价。但随着他们熟悉这一工具，溢价很可能会消失。
There is a lot of unsatisfied demand in Europe from insurance companies and other long-term investors for long-term bonds. At first, they may demand a premium for perpetual bonds because they are not familiar with the instrument. But the premium is likely to disappear as they acquaint themselves with it.
意大利并不属于那些幸运到可以以自己的名义发行永续债券的国家；然而，它比其他国家更需要这些好处。意大利是欧盟第三大经济体——没有意大利，欧盟会是什么样子？
Italy is not among the countries fortunate enough to be able to issue perpetual bonds in their own name; yet it needs the benefits more than others. Italy is the EU’s third largest economy – what would the EU be without it?
如果那些以自己名义发行永续债的国家，也愿意为意大利发行的永续债提供担保，那将是一个极好的团结姿态。这将加强欧盟，从而间接让它们自己受益。最终，欧盟或许会变得足够强大，能够以自身名义发行永续债。那是一个值得努力追求的目标。
It would be a wonderful gesture of solidarity if the countries that sell perpetual bonds in their own name would also guarantee an issue by Italy. This would strengthen the EU and thus benefit them indirectly. Eventually, the EU could grow strong enough to also issue perpetual bonds in its own name. That is a goal worth striving for.