贝莱德的中国失误
全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德（BlackRock）已在中国启动一项重大举措。8 月 30 日，贝莱德为中国消费者推出了一系列共同基金及其他投资产品。这家总部位于纽约的公司是首家获准开展此类业务的外资企业。推出这些产品仅数周前，贝莱德曾建议投资者将中国资产的配置比例提高两倍。此举将推动数十亿美元资金流入中国。“中国市场是帮助中国及国际投资者实现其长期目标的重要机遇，”贝莱德董事长拉里·芬克在致股东的信中写道。
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has begun a major initiative in China. On Aug. 30 it launched a set of mutual funds and other investment products for Chinese consumers. The New York-based firm is the first foreign-owned company allowed to do so. The launch came just weeks after BlackRock recommended that investors triple their allocations in Chinese assets. This will push billions of dollars into China. “The Chinese market represents a significant opportunity to help meet the long-term goals of investors in China and internationally,” BlackRock Chairman Larry Fink wrote in a letter to shareholders.
贝莱德对客户资金非常尽责，也是环境、社会和治理运动的领军者。但它似乎误解了习近平主席领导下的中国。
BlackRock takes its responsibilities for its clients’ money seriously and is a leader in the environmental, social and governance movement. But it appears to misunderstand President Xi Jinping’s China.
这家公司似乎完全相信了习近平政权所发表的声明。它在国有企业与私有企业之间划出了界限，但这远非现实。该政权将所有中国企业都视为这个一党制国家的工具。
The firm seems to have taken the statements of Mr. Xi’s regime at face value. It has drawn a distinction between state-owned enterprises and privately owned companies, but that is far from reality. The regime regards all Chinese companies as instruments of the one-party state.
这种可能的误解或许能解释贝莱德的决定，但可能还有另一层原因。进驻中国迄今仍封闭的金融市场所能赚取的利润，可能影响了他们的决策。贝莱德的管理层一定清楚，中国房地产市场正酝酿着一场巨大危机。他们或许认为，流入中国的投资资金将帮助习近平主席应对局势，但习主席面临的问题要深刻得多。中国的出生率远低于官方统计数据所显示的水平，而习主席提升出生率的尝试反而让情况变得更糟。习主席最近推出了“共同富裕”计划，这是一次根本性的方向转变。它试图通过将富人的财富分配给普通大众来缩小不平等。这对外国投资者来说可不是好兆头。
This possible misunderstanding could explain BlackRock’s decision, but there may be another explanation. The profits to be earned from entering China’s hitherto closed financial markets may have influenced their decision. The BlackRock managers must be aware that there is an enormous crisis brewing in China’s real-estate market. They may believe that investment funds flowing into China will help Mr. Xi handle the situation, but the president’s problems go much deeper. China’s birthrate is much lower than official statistics indicate and Mr. Xi’s attempts to increase it have made matters worse. The president recently launched his “Common Prosperity” program, which is a fundamental change in direction. It seeks to reduce inequality by distributing the wealth of the rich to the general population. That does not augur well for foreign investors.
现在向中国投入数十亿美元是一个悲剧性的错误。它很可能让贝莱德（BlackRock）的客户亏钱，更重要的是，会损害美国及其他民主国家的国家安全利益。习先生在 2022 年面临一个重大障碍。许多人认为他打算超越邓小平确立的任期限制，让自己成为终身统治者。他必然有敌人，他必须阻止这些人联合起来反对他。因此，他需要让任何富到足以行使独立权力的实体臣服。
Pouring billions of dollars into China now is a tragic mistake. It is likely to lose money for BlackRock’s clients and, more important, will damage the national security interests of the U.S. and other democracies. Mr. Xi faces an important hurdle in 2022. Many believe he intends to overstep the term limits established by Deng Xiaoping and make himself ruler for life. He is bound to have enemies, whom he must prevent from uniting against him. Thus, he needs to bring to heel any entity rich enough to exercise independent power.
过去一年，这一过程一直在推进，并在最近几周达到高潮。始于 2020 年 11 月阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团突然叫停新股发行。接着是滴滴出行去年 6 月在纽约上市后受到处罚。最后是赶走美国资助的教培公司，事情由此达到顶峰。这对离岸市场产生了深远的负面影响，重创了在纽约上市的中资公司和壳公司。自那以后，中国金融监管部门一直在努力安抚市场。
This process has been unfolding in the past year and reached a crescendo in recent weeks. It began with the abrupt cancellation of a new issue by Alibaba’s Ant Group in November 2020. Then came the disciplinary measures against Didi Chuxing after it floated an issue in New York in June. Things culminated with the banishment of U.S.-financed tutoring companies from China. This had a profoundly negative effect on offshore markets, hammering New York-listed Chinese companies and shell companies. Chinese financial authorities have tried to reassure markets ever since.
西方资产管理公司的领导者，例如投资公司黑石（Blackstone）的联合创始人斯蒂芬·施瓦茨曼（Stephen Schwarzman）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）前总裁约翰·桑顿（John L. Thornton），长期对中国消费者市场感兴趣——也对习先生抛出的商业机会前景充满期待。
The leaders of Western asset-management firms, such as Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of investment firm Blackstone, and former Goldman Sachs President John L. Thornton, have long been interested in the Chinese consumer market—and in the prospect of business opportunities dangled by Mr. Xi.
BlackRock 只是最新一家试图与中国接触的公司。早先的那些努力或许还能从道德层面辩解，称其是在架设桥梁、拉近两国关系，但如今的情况已截然不同。今天，美国和中国正陷入两种治理体系——专制体制与民主体制——之间的生死冲突。
BlackRock is only the latest company trying to engage with China. Earlier efforts could have been morally justified by claims that they were building bridges to bring the countries closer, but the situation now is totally different. Today, the U.S. and China are engaged in a life and death conflict between two systems of governance: repressive and democratic.
贝莱德的计划危及美国及其他民主国家的国家安全利益，因为投入中国的资金将帮助支撑习近平政权——该政权对内压制、对外激进。国会应通过立法，授权美国证券交易委员会限制资金流入中国。这一举措理应获得两党共同支持。
The BlackRock initiative imperils the national security interests of the U.S. and other democracies because the money invested in China will help prop up President Xi’s regime, which is repressive at home and aggressive abroad. Congress should pass legislation empowering the Securities and Exchange Commission to limit the flow of funds to China. The effort ought to enjoy bipartisan support.