市场反转还是熊市反弹?

2022 · 随笔 · 原文约 882 词
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市场反转事件凸显的是牛市反弹还是熊市反弹?

MARKET REVERSAL EVENT HIGHLIGHTS OR BEAR RALLY?

杰里米·格兰瑟姆对超级泡沫的见解

杰里米·格兰瑟姆与里克·弗里德曼 | 2022 年 9 月 9 日

概述

在这场网络直播中,联合创始人兼长期投资策略师杰里米·格兰瑟姆分享了他对当前超级泡沫的最新看法、其与以往泡沫的相似之处,以及未来如何应对。投资组合策略师里克·弗里德曼也加入讨论,他介绍了 GMO 高确信度策略“股权错位”中蕴含的机会,该策略旨在从成长股泡沫的消退中获益。

JEREMY GRANTHAM’S VIEWS ON THE SUPERBUBBLE Jeremy Grantham and Rick Friedman | September 9, 2022 OVERVIEW In this webcast, Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and long-term investment strategist, shares his updated views on the current superbubble, its parallels to past bubbles, and ways to navigate ahead. Jeremy is joined by portfolio strategist Rick Friedman, who describes the opportunity embedded in Equity Dislocation, GMO's high-conviction strategy designed to benefit from the unwind of the Growth bubble.

要点 ■ 在演讲中,杰里米解释了普通资产泡沫与超级泡沫之间的区别——后者偏离趋势 2.5 个标准差或更多,且如今跨越多种资产类别和地区。在描述超级泡沫的各个阶段时,杰里米分享了他对各种资产估值和基本面状况的看法,并对未来前景给出了悲观的预测。 ■ 杰里米强调,对于希望重新调整投资组合以抵御进一步下行波动的投资者来说,熊市周期还未到无法挽回的地步。他介绍了一些在当前环境下保护资产的方法,包括将资金配置到 GMO 的股票错位策略。 ■ 我们相信 GMO 在驾驭市场错位方面具有独特的能力,而 GMO 股票错位策略旨在利用当今最极端的错位之一。里克在深入探讨该策略整体及不同板块中仍存的机会之前,先概述了股票错位。里克还解释了股票错位如何能对仍显昂贵的成长型股票起到重要的分散化作用。

KEY POINTS ■ During the presentation, Jeremy explains the difference between a run-of-the- mill asset bubble and a superbubble – a 2.5 sigma or greater deviation from trend with today’s spanning multiple asset classes and geographies. In describing the various phases of a superbubble, Jeremy shares his view of where valuations and fundamentals stand across various assets and provides a pessimistic view of what lies ahead. ■ Jeremy underscores that it is not too late in the bear market cycle for investors to reposition their portfolios to protect from further downside volatility. He explains some of the ways he looks to protect assets in the current environment, including by allocating to GMO’s Equity Dislocation Strategy. ■ We believe GMO has a unique ability to navigate market dislocations, and the GMO Equity Dislocation Strategy aims to take advantage of one of today’s most extreme dislocations. Rick provides an overview of Equity Dislocation before diving into the opportunity remaining in the strategy broadly and across various sectors. Rick also explains how Equity Dislocation can act as an important diversifier to still expensive growth equities.

GMO 事件亮点:市场反转还是熊市反弹?杰里米·格兰瑟姆对超级泡沫的看法 | 第 2 页

杰里米·格兰瑟姆 格兰瑟姆先生于 1977 年联合创立了 GMO,现为 GMO 资产配置团队的一员,担任公司的长期投资策略师。他是 GMO 董事会成员,还曾在多家非营利组织的投资委员会任职。在创立 GMO 之前,格兰瑟姆先生于 1969 年联合创立了 Batterymarch Financial Management,并于 1971 年率先提出商业指数化策略,这被视为他开创性的成就之一。他的投资生涯始于皇家荷兰壳牌公司,担任经济学家。格兰瑟姆先生在英国谢菲尔德大学获得学士学位,并在哈佛商学院获得 MBA 学位。他是美国艺术与科学院院士,拥有英国授予的 CBE 勋章,并荣获卡内基慈善奖章。

增长回撤的有效对冲 平均而言,在纳斯达克下跌的日子里,股市错位策略带来了 +0.4% 的收益

股市错位策略在纳斯达克跌幅超过 5% 的时期表现出色

2021 年 11 月 19 日 – 2022 年 3 月 14 日

纳斯达克 -21.7%

股市错位 +20.9%

超额收益 +42.6%

2021 年 2 月 12 日 – 2021 年 3 月 8 日

纳斯达克 -10.5%

股市错位 +16.3%

超额收益 +26.8%

纳斯达克累计回报率 135

2022 年 3 月 29 日 – 2022 年 6 月 16 日

纳斯达克 -27.2%

股市错位 +10.2%

超额收益 +37.4%

2021 年 9 月 7 日 – 2021 年 10 月 4 日

纳斯达克 -7.8%

股市错位 +9.1%

超额收益 +16.9%

纳斯达克累计回报率 115

2021 年 4 月 26 日 – 2021 年 5 月 12 日

纳斯达克 -7.3%

股市错位 +3.2%

超额收益 +10.5%

纳斯达克累计回报率 110

纳斯达克累计回报率 105

纳斯达克累计回报率 100

GMO EVENT HIGHLIGHTS Market Reversal or Bear Rally? Jeremy Grantham’s Views on the Superbubble | p2 Jeremy Grantham Mr. Grantham co-founded A HELPFUL OFFSET TO GROWTH DRAWDOWNS GMO in 1977 and is a On average, Equity Dislocation has generated +0.4% on NASDAQ down days member of GMO’s Asset Allocation team, serving EQUITY DISLOCATION RALLIED IN PERIODS NASDAQ FELL >5% as the firm’s long-term 150 11/19/21 – 3/14/22 investment strategist. He is NASDAQ -21.7% a member of the GMO Board of Directors and has 145 2/12/21 – 3/8/21 Equity Dislocation+20.9% also served on the investment boards of several NASDAQ -10.5% Outperformance +42.6% non-profit organizations. Prior to GMO’s founding, Mr. Equity Dislocation +16.3% NASDAQ Cumulative Return 135 Outperformance +26.8% 3/29/22 – 6/16/22 Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial NASDAQ -27.2% Management in 1969 where he recommended 130 Equity Dislocation +10.2% commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims 125 9/7/21 – 10/4/21 Outperformance +37.4% to being first. He began his investment career as NASDAQ -7.8% an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham Equity Dislocation +9.1% earned his undergraduate degree from the University 115 Outperformance +16.9% of Sheffield (U.K.) and an M.B.A. from Harvard 110 4/26/21 – 5/12/21 Business School. He is a member of the Academy of NASDAQ -7.3% 105 Equity Dislocation +3.2% Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK and is a 100 Outperformance +10.5% recipient of the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.

2020 年 10 月 30 日(起投日)至 2022 年 8 月 31 日 里克·弗里德曼 弗里德曼先生是 GMO 资产配置团队的成员,也是公司的合伙人。业绩数据为历史表现,不代表未来业绩。净回报在扣除模型咨询费及适用情况下的激励费后列示。本回报含交易成本、佣金、对外国收入代扣的税款及资本利得税,并包含股息及其他收入的再投资(如适用)。组合内账户实际支付的费用可能高于或低于所采用的模型费用。一份全球投资业绩标准(GIPS®)组合报告载于本演示文稿末尾的重要信息部分。GIPS® 是 CFA 协会拥有的注册商标。CFA 协会未背书或推广本产品,也不对演示文稿的准确性或质量作任何保证。在 2013 年加入 GMO 之前,他曾在联博(AllianceBernstein)担任高级副总裁。此前,他曾在 Arrowpath Venture Capital 任合伙人,在 Technology Crossover Ventures 任董事。弗里德曼先生获宾夕法尼亚大学经济学学士学位,以及哈佛商学院 MBA 学位。

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Rick Friedman Mr. Friedman is a member of GMO’s Asset Allocation Returns from 10/30/2020 (inception) to 8/31/2022 | Source: GMO team and a partner of Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. the firm. Prior to joining GMO in2013, he was a Net returns are presented after the deduction of a model advisory fee and incentive fee if applicable. senior vice president at These returns include transaction costs, commissions and withholding taxes on foreign income and AllianceBernstein. Previously, he was a partner capital gains and include the reinvestment of dividends and other income, as applicable. Fees paid by at Arrowpath Venture Capital and a principal at Technology Crossover Ventures. Mr. Friedman accounts within the composite may be higher or lower than the model fees used. A Global Investment earned his bachelor's degree in Economics from Performance Standards (GIPS®) Composite Report is included in the Important Information section the University of Pennsylvania and his MBA from at the back of this presentation. GIPS® is a registered trademark owned by CFA Institute. CFA Harvard Business School.

研究所并未认可或推介该组织,亦不对本文件所含内容的准确性或质量做出任何保证。实际费用已在 GMO 的 Form ADV 第二部分中披露,同时也可在各策略的集合投资报告(Composite Report)中获取。

Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. Actual fees are disclosed in Part 2 of GMO's Form ADV and are also Disclaimer available in each strategy's Composite Report.

所表达的观点截止到 2022 年 9 月,并随时可能根据市场及其他条件发生变化。本文并非对 RELATED STRATEGIES 任何证券的买入或卖出要约或招揽,也不应被理解为上述文件。请点击下方链接,获取与此活动相关的策略信息。提及特定证券和发行人仅为 ■ GMO Equity Dislocation Strategy 说明之用,无意也不应被解读为买入或卖出此类证券的建议。

The views expressed are through the period ending September 2022, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of RELATED STRATEGIES any security and should not be construed as such. Please click on the links below to access strategies related to this event. References to specific securities and issuers are for ■ GMO Equity Dislocation Strategy illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.

版权所有 © 2022 GMO 有限责任公司。保留所有权利。相关研究请点击下方链接访问与本次活动相关的研究。■ 进入超级泡沫的终章 ■ 让狂欢开始吧 ■ 价值回归才刚刚起步 ■ 成长泡沫:从那些不赚钱的公司身上赚钱

Copyright © 2022 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved. RELATED RESEARCH Please click on the links below to access research related to this event. ■ Entering The Superbubble's Final Act ■ Let The Wild Rumpus Begin ■ The Turn in Value Is Just Getting Started ■ Growth Bubble: Making Money on Companies That Make No Money