再投资

2009 · 随笔 · 原文约 977 词

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再投资杰里米·格兰瑟姆的观点：当恐惧时

杰里米·格兰瑟姆 | 2009 年 3 月

1999 年，在上涨途中放弃赚钱、并让自己承担因看起来像个老古董而带来的职业风险，在心理上是痛苦的。同样今天，与你日益钟爱的现金分手，既痛苦又充满职业风险，尤其是在这个流动性空前的市场中，现金如此难以筹措。随着这场危机走向高潮，原本理性的人会开始预言世界末日，他们手握大量可怕且准确的数据，这些数据反过来会让你觉得自己的谨慎更加明智。每一次下跌都会让现金更加美好，直到像我们一些人 1974 年经历过的那样，“终极瘫痪”降临。那些仓位过重的人会呆若木鸡，只能坐着祈祷。而少数看起来极为高明、手握大把现金的人，则不愿轻易放弃他们的英明形象。于是几乎所有人都在观望和等待，他们的惰性开始像水泥一样凝固。通常，那些持有大量现金的人会错失市场复苏的很大一部分。

REINVESTING JEREMY GRANTHAM VIEWPOINTS WHEN TERRIFIED Jeremy Grantham | March 2009 It was psychologically painful in 1999 to give up making money on the way up and to expose yourself to the career risk that comes with looking like an old fuddy duddy. Similarly today, it is both painful and career risky to part with your increasingly beloved cash, particularly since cash has been so hard to raise in this market of unprecedented illiquidity. As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable people will start to predict the end of the world, armed with plenty of terrifying and accurate data that will serve to reinforce the wisdom of your caution. Every decline will enhance the beauty of cash until, as some of us experienced in 1974, ‘terminal paralysis’ sets in. Those who were over invested will be catatonic and just sit and pray. Those few who look brilliant, oozing cash, will not want to easily give up their brilliance. So almost everyone is watching and waiting with their inertia beginning to set like concrete. Typically, those with a lot of cash will miss a very large chunk of the market recovery.

彻底瘫痪只有一种解药：你必须制定一个再投资作战计划并严格执行。既然每步行动都必须克服瘫痪心理，我建议采取大动作而非小碎步。在底部精准迈出一步固然理想，但既然没跟魔鬼签合同，分几步大踏步走会更稳妥。这正是 GMO 采取的做法。我们 10 月执行了一次大规模再投资，将仓位从中性水平拉到了距离最低股票仓位一半的位置，并且制定了后续市场下跌时进一步加仓的时间表。尤其重要的是，你得明确定义什么条件才算满仓。如果没有类似计划，就等着你的委员会（包括你自己）的投资热情随市场下跌一起消退吧。你必须现在——在尸僵发生之前——就让他们同意，因为写这篇文章时我们正在进入那个区间。记住，你永远抄不到底。明智的价值型投资者总会在泡沫中卖得太早，在崩盘中买得太早。但作为回报，你不仅能在这一来一回中赚到可观的额外收益，还能降低平均风险暴露。

There is only one cure for terminal paralysis: you absolutely must have a battle plan for reinvestment and stick to it. Since every action must overcome paralysis, what I recommend is a few large steps, not many small ones. A single giant step at the low would be nice, but without holding a signed contract with the devil, several big moves would be safer. This is what we have been doing at GMO. We made one very large reinvestment move in October, taking us to about half way between neutral and minimum equities, and we have a schedule for further moves contingent on future market declines. It is particularly important to have a clear definition of what it will take for you to be fully invested. Without a similar program, be prepared for your committee’s enthusiasm to invest (and your own for that matter) to fall with the market. You must get them to agree now – quickly before rigor mortis sets in – for we are entering that zone as I write. Remember that you will never catch the low. Sensible value-based investors will always sell too early in bubbles and buy too early in busts. But in return, you may make some important extra money on the roundtrip as well as lowering the average risk exposure.

记录在此：我们现在认为标普指数的公允价值在 900 点，比当前价格高出 30%。全球股市甚至更为便宜。（我们对当前价值的估算，基于正常市盈率适用于正常利润率这一假设。）我们对各类股票未来 7 年的预计回报，在扣除通胀后处于 +10% 到 +13% 的区间，这一估算假设从现在起用 7 年时间，环境从当前状态回归正常。而一年前，这些回报预期还全部为负！遗憾的是，这个数字也与 1974 年低点时 +15% 的预测形成了对比——正因如此，我们的猜测是，标普 500 指数仍有五五开的可能跌破 600 点。

For the record, we now believe the S&P is worth 900 at fair value or 30% above today’s price. Global equities are even cheaper. (Our estimates of current value are based on the assumption of normal P/Es being applied to normal profit margins.) Our 7-year estimated returns for the various equity categories are in the +10 to +13% range after inflation based on an assumption of a 7-year move from today’s environment back to normal conditions. This compares to a year ago when they were all negative! Unfortunately it also compares to a +15% forecast at the 1974 low, and because of that our guess is that there is still a 50/50 chance of crossing 600 on the S&P 500.

人生很简单：如果你投入得太早太多，你会后悔——“经济这么糟、市场一泻千里、历史书都在尖叫着说过度扩张，你怎么还能干这种事？”另一方面，如果你明明谈着可观的潜在回报、市场却反弹了，而你投入得太少，那你活该被枪毙。我们试着把这些相互竞争的代价和悔恨都建了模型。你也应该试着这样做。

Life is simple: if you invest too much too soon you will regret it; “How could you have done this with the economy so bad, the market in free fall, and the history books screaming about overruns?” On the other hand, if you invest too little after talking about handsome potential returns and the market rallies, you deserve to be shot. We have tried to model these competing costs and regrets. You should try to do the same.

GMO 杰里米·格兰瑟姆观点：在恐惧中重新投资 | p2 杰里米·格兰瑟姆：如果你做不到，那么一个简单明确的作战计划——哪怕它直接来自你的直觉（格兰瑟姆先生是 GMO 的联合创始人）——在崩盘时也比完全没有计划好得多。相反，追求最优解是一个陷阱和错觉；它只会加剧你的瘫痪。GMO 成立于 1977 年，投资者必须对快速下跌的价格做出反应，因为事件可能迅速变化。1933 年 6 月，远在所有银行倒闭或失业率达到顶峰之前，标普指数在 6 个月内上涨了 105%。同样，1974 年英国股市在 5 个月内上涨了 148%！当时你手握巨额心爱的现金储备会作何感受？最后，要意识到市场并非在看见隧道尽头的光明时反转。它反转时，一切都显得黑暗，只是比前一天稍微不那么黑暗而已。

GMO JEREMY GRANTHAM VIEWPOINTS Reinvesting When Terrified | p2 Jeremy Grantham If you can’t, a simple clear battle plan – even if it comes directly from your stomach Mr. Grantham co-founded – will be far better in a meltdown than none at all. Perversely, seeking for optimality GMO in 1977 and is a is a snare and delusion; it will merely serve to increase your paralysis. Investors must member of GMO’s Asset respond to rapidly falling prices for events can change fast. In June 1933, long before Allocation team, serving all the banks had failed or unemployment had peaked, the S&P rallied 105% in 6 as the firm’s long-term months. Similarly, in 1974 it rallied 148% in 5 months in the UK! How would you have investment strategist. He is a member of the felt then with your large and beloved cash reserves? Finally, be aware that the market GMO Board of Directors and has also served does not turn when it sees light at the end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, on the investment boards of several non-profit organizations. Prior to GMO’s founding, Mr. but just a subtle shade less black than the day before.

格兰瑟姆于 1969 年联合创办了 Batterymarch Financial Management，并在 1971 年推荐了商业指数化策略——这项举措让他成为最早倡导该理念的人之一。他的投资生涯始于壳牌石油公司（Royal Dutch Shell），担任经济学家。格兰瑟姆先生本科毕业于英国谢菲尔德大学，并在哈佛商学院获得工商管理硕士学位。他是美国艺术与科学院院士，曾获英国颁发的大英帝国司令勋章（CBE），并荣获卡内基慈善奖章（Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy）。

Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial Management in 1969 where he recommended commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims to being first. He began his investment career as an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield (U.K.) and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School. He is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.

免责声明本文所表达的观点是杰里米·格兰瑟姆截至 2009 年 3 月 4 日的看法，并可能随市场及其他条件的变化随时调整。本文不构成对任何证券的买卖要约或招揽，也不应被解读为此类文件。任何前瞻性陈述均基于 GMO 的合理信念，并非对未来业绩的保证。本文中的任何内容均不应被视为投资建议。

Disclaimer The views expressed are the views of Jeremy Grantham through the period ending March 4, 2009, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. Any forward looking statements are based on the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Nothing in this article should be considered investment advice.