华尔街赌场

1999 · oped · 原文约 1162 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

8/10/22, 9:46 PM 伯格电子博客 » 博客存档 » 华尔街赌场时光机 - https://web.archive.org/web/20170630141541/http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/2006/0… “华尔街赌场” JCB - 2006 年 3 月 15 日《纽约时报》– 1999 年 8 月 23 日股票市场上狂热的交易活动已成为我们这个伟大牛市的一大标志。到 1999 年，每个交易日投资者都要交易大约 15 亿股股票。股票的年换手率已升至 95% 的半个世纪高点，正逼近 1929 年创下的历史最高纪录 119%。1960 年，换手率仅为 12%。如今，投资者平均持有一只股票的时间只有一年。

8/10/22, 9:46 PM The Bogle eBlog » Blog Archive » The Wall Street Casino The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20170630141541/http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/2006/0… THE WALL STREET CASINO JCB - Mar 15, 2006 The New York Times – August 23, 1999 Feverish transaction activity in the stock market has become one of the hallmarks of our great bull market. So far, on every business day of 1999, investors have traded some 1.5 billion shares of stock. The annual turnover rate of shares has risen to a half-century high of 95 percent, closing in on the all-time high of 119 percent recorded in 1929. In 1960, the turnover rate was just 12 percent. Today, the average investor holds a share of stock for but a single year.

共同基金行业作为美国家庭储蓄流中最大份额的守护者，为这些创纪录的交易活动做出了巨大贡献。与 20 世纪 60 年代初平均 5 到 6 年的持有期相反，现在基金平均持有一个投资组合的时间仅略超过一年。曾经被描述为长期投资者的绝大多数基金经理，现在可以被公允地称为短期投机者。

The mutual fund industry, guardian of the lion’s share of the savings flows of American families, is a vigorous contributor to these new highs in activity. In contrast to the average five- to six-year holding period of the early 1960’s, the average fund now holds a portfolio investment for little more than a year. Once characterized as long-term investors, most fund managers can now be fairly described as short-term speculators.

在当今狂热的市场氛围中，受其基金经理的影响，共同基金投资者自己也变成了活跃的交易者。他们现在持有自己的基金份额（名义上是为了实现长期目标而购买，比如建立退休储备金）的平均时间只有 3 年。这些活动有很大一部分发生在“免佣”的基金份额交易市场上——这个说法严重名不副实，因为基金份额持有人的资产本身被用来支付账单。

And, taking the cue from their fund managers in the heady market atmosphere of the day, mutual fund investors themselves have become active traders. They now hold their own fund shares, ostensibly purchased to meet long-term goals such as the building of a retirement nest egg, for an average of but three years. Much of this activity takes place in ”no-fee” marketplaces for trading fund shares — a serious misnomer, for the assets of the fund shareholders themselves are tapped to pay the bills.

这些趋势没有显示出任何减弱的迹象。事实上，股票网上交易——交易量猛增的主要推手之一——据说现在已占市场总成交量的 20% 以上。令人惊叹的技术让投资者只需在电脑上按几个键，就能在异常活跃的互联网股票市场上交易投机性的互联网股票。

These trends show no sign of abating. Indeed, stock trading over the Internet — one of the principal contributors to the surge in activity — is now said to account for more than 20 percent of all market volume. Breathtaking technology enables investors to trade speculative Internet stocks over the hyperactive Internet stock market simply by pressing a few keys on their computers.

在股票市场里这样折腾对投资者有好处吗？明确地说，没有。投资者实际赚取的回报，必然等于股票市场本身产生的回报，减去投资者在获取这些回报过程中承担的成本。市场就像一个赌场，投资者作为一个整体徒劳地想战胜市场。战胜市场是一个零和游戏，但仅在扣除成本之前如此。在股票市场这个赌场里，赢家是庄家。

Is all this thrashing around in the stock market productive for investors? Unequivocally, it is not. The returns investors actually earn are inevitably represented by the returns earned in the stock market itself, less the costs investors incur in earning those returns. The market is simply a gambling casino where investors as a whole try vainly to outpace the market. Beating the market is a zero-sum game, but only before costs are deducted. In the stock market casino, it is the croupiers who win.

庄家很多，他们挥着长长的耙子。普通股票基金的管理费每年收取其资产的 1.5%。基金销售人员每年至少收取 0.5%。处理基金频繁交易活动的经纪商或许再收取 1%。在牛市期间，联邦政府——所有庄家中最贪婪的一个——每年又从基金投资者那里收取 3%，因为这些投资者要为基金分配给他们实现的资本利得缴税。交易活跃的基金实现长期和短期收益的速度，至少有助于平衡联邦预算——据估计，1998 年由此带来的额外税收高达 100 亿美元。

And there are lots of croupiers, wielding wide rakes. The manager of the average equity fund rakes in annual revenue equal to 1.5 percent of its assets. The fund salesman receives, over time, at least 0.5 percent per year. The brokers who handle the fund’s vigorous trading activity collect perhaps another 1 percent. And during the bull market, the Federal Government, the greediest croupier of them all, has been raking in another 3 percent per year from fund investors who pay taxes on the capital gains the fund distributes. Hyperactive funds realize both long-term and short-term gains at a rate that, if nothing else, helps to balance the Federal budget — by an estimated $10 billion of extra taxes in 1998.

投资者逐渐开始意识到基金成本带来的负担。1999 年股票基金的净现金流入量比 1998 年水平下降了 30%。许多投资者对基金回报率低于市场平均水平（很大程度上源于高成本）感到失望，转而投向在互联网上交易个股，在那里他们可以自己管理资金，并且大多数交易的手续费仅为 24.95 美元或更低。

Investors are gradually becoming aware of the toll taken by fund costs. Net cash flows into equity funds in 1999 are running 30 percent below 1998 levels. Disenchanted by poor fund returns relative to market averages — largely engendered by high costs — many investors have apparently turned to trading individual stocks on the Internet, where they can manage their own money and execute most trades for $24.95 or less.

这种看似微不足道的佣金可能划算也可能不划算，这不仅取决于交易执行得有多好，还取决于投资者交易的频率。随着交易活动的飙升，庄家们耙到的钱更多。当庄家才是赚大钱的买卖。那么，客户的游艇或私人飞机在哪里？

This seemingly trivial commission may or may not be a bargain, depending not only on how well the trade is executed, but on how often the investor trades. The croupiers rake in more money as trading activity soars. Being a croupier is where the big money is. Where, indeed, are the customers’ yachts or private jets?

可悲的事实是，今天的投资者通过承担所有这些成本，直接违背了自身的最佳利益。从长远来看，尽可能多地获取股票市场回报的最佳方式，是买入并持有股票，同时最小化投资成本。这样一来，投资者在扣除成本后，可以获取市场税前年回报的 98% 到 99%。但每年支付总计 2.5% 费用（不含税收）的共同基金投资者，在市场年回报为 10% 的情况下，只能获得其中的 75%。活跃交易个股的投资者似乎表现更差，在扣除交易成本后，估计只能获得市场回报的 65%。

The sad fact is that investors today, by incurring all of these costs, are acting directly counter to their own best interests. In the long run, the best way to capture as much of the stock market’s return as is possible is to buy and hold stocks and minimize the costs of investing. In this way, investors can capture 98 percent to 99 percent of the market’s pre-tax annual return, after the deduction of costs. But mutual fund investors, paying aggregate costs of 2.5 percent per year (excluding taxes), would receive only 75 percent of an annual market return of 10 percent. Active investors in individual stocks seem to do even worse, capturing an estimated 65 percent of the market’s return after trading costs.

随着时间的推移，这些年复一年的成本在复利作用下的负面影响是毁灭性的。假设未来 25 年市场回报率为 10%。初始投入 10,000 美元，如果简单投资于股市，将增长到 108,300 美元。现在假设投资成本为 2.5%，额外税收为 1.5%。投资者最终只累积到 42,900 美元，比市场回报少了整整 65,000 美元。投资庄家们耙走了 44%，政府庄家耙走了 16%。赌场生意兴隆。但投资者却没有。投资者投入了 100% 的资本并承担了 100% 的风险，却只获得了 40% 的回报。这不是一笔好买卖。

Extended over time, the negative impact of the compounding of these annual costs is confiscatory. Assume a 10 percent market return over the next 25 years. An initial $10,000, simply invested in the stock market, would grow to $108,300. Now assume investment costs of 2.5 percent and extra taxes of another 1.5 percent. The investor 8/10/22, 9:46 PM The Bogle eBlog » Blog Archive » The Wall Street Casino accumulates but $42,900, fully $65,000 less than the market. The investment croupiers rake in 44 percent, and the government croupiers rake in 16 percent. The casinos flourish. But not the investor. Having put up 100 percent of the capital and assumed 100 percent of the risk, the investor would receive barely 40 percent of the return. It is not a good deal.

聪明的投资者该怎么做？首先，他们认识到投资成功的关键不在于短期交易纸片（这是大多数基金正在做的），而在于拥有企业股份并长期持有。

What do intelligent investors do? First, they realize that the key to investment success lies not in trading pieces of paper on a short-term basis (what most funds do), but in owning shares of businesses and holding them for the long term.

有些人可能会通过聘请强调买入并持有策略的投资经理来做到这一点。（沃伦·巴菲特的策略是买入少数几家大公司的股份，而他最喜欢的持有期是“永远”。）其他人则简单地自行买入股票并长期持有。还有些人持有跟踪股票市场的指数基金，实际上等于买入了美国每家公司的股份，并只要这家企业存在就一直持有。通过避开那些常见的庄家，采用此类策略的投资者有最好的机会度过任何短期失望，并享受最佳的长期财富积累。

Some may do this by retaining investment managers who emphasize a buy-and-hold strategy. (Warren Buffett’s strategy is to buy shares in a small number of large companies, and his favorite holding period is ”forever.”) Others simply buy their own stocks and hold them for the long term. And still others own index funds that track the stock market, in effect buying a share in every corporation in America and holding it as long as the business exists. By steering clear of the usual croupiers, investors using such strategies have the best possible opportunity to ride out any short-term disappointments and enjoy optimal long-term wealth accumulation.

今天的股票交易狂潮对投资者没有好处。这让人想起凯恩斯勋爵的警告：“当一国的资本发展成为赌场活动的副产品时，这项工作很可能做不好。”那些远离赌场、长期持有股票的投资者，最有可能让自己资本积累的工作做好。

Today’s stock trading frenzy ill serves the investor. It brings to mind Lord Keynes’s warning that ”when the capital development of a country becomes a byproduct of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.” Investors who stay out of the casino and hold stocks for the long term stand the best chance that their own job of capital accumulation will be well done.