变中不变：事物变化越多，相同之处越多

1995 · report · 原文约 5661 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

打开来源正文

股权研究——美洲

EQUITY RESEARCH–AMERICAS

行业：食品 1995 年 12 月 13 日 FD2748 迈克尔·J·莫布森 212/909-3108

Industry: Food December 13, 1995 FD2748 Michael J. Mauboussin 212/909-3108

Plus Ça Change, Plus C’est Pareil “万变不离其宗。”

Plus Ça Change, Plus C’est Pareil “The more things change, the more they stay the same.”

财富最大化应当成为管理层首要目标。

Wealth Maximization Should Be Management’s Prime Goal

ROIC • 回报率差与估值之间的相关性很强。

ROIC • The correlation between return spreads and valuation is strong.

市场会识别并奖励那些高回报的企业。

• The market recognizes and rewards high-return businesses.

资本· 分析师通过理解资本配置比预测盈利更能获得更大的优势。

Capital • Analysts can gain a greater edge by under-Allocation standing capital allocation than by predicting earnings.

Valuation

管理层必须专注于最大化股东价值。

• Managements must focus on maximizing shareholder value.

导言在投资领域中获取竞争优势，无疑是一项艰巨的挑战。要应对这个难题，分析师首先必须清楚理解市场关注什么，然后破解股东财富的驱动因素。更进一步，只有当这些价值驱动力有别于——或者说偏离于——日常的投资热议话题时，它们才可被视为具备增量信息或增量分析价值。

Introduction Gaining a competitive advantage in the investing business is certainly challenging. To tackle this problem, an analyst must first clearly understand what the market cares about and then decipher the drivers of shareholder wealth. Further, only to the extent that these value drivers are different from, or tangential to, the day-to-day investment chatter can they be considered of incremental informational or analytical value.

本报告旨在勾勒出应对这一投资挑战的解决方案。我们尝试分几个步骤来实现这一目标。首先，我们运用基本的统计工具，来理解最能解释包装食品行业估值的各项要素。随后，我们考察实证证据对股市行为的揭示。

This report seeks to outline a solution to this investing challenge. We have attempted to do this in a few steps. First, we use basic statistical tools to understand the elements that best explain valuation in the packaged food industry. We then consider what our empirical evidence says about stock market behav-

最后，我们概述了价值的多重维度，这些维度理应是管理者和投资者共同关注的焦点。我们的结论也正是本文标题：译成中文，就是“万变不离其宗”。也就是说，企业尽可以参与并购、进行资产减记、推行重组计划、实施战略调整、玩弄会计把戏，但归根结底，真正重要的是公司能否用其所运用的资本，创造令人满意的现金回报。在瞬息万变的商业世界中持续做到这一点，需要勤奋、远见和自律。哲学家巴鲁赫·斯宾诺莎的话，对管理者而言恰如其分：“一切卓越之物，既难能，亦罕见。”

ior. Finally, we outline the facets of value that should be the focus of managers and investors alike. Our conclusion also serves as our title: translated into English, it simply means “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” That is, companies can partake in M&A, write-offs, restruc-turing programs, strategic repositionings, and accounting chicanery, but at the end of the day what matters is a company’s ability to generate satisfactory cash returns on the capital it employs. Doing so consistently in the face of a rapidly changing business world requires hard work, foresight, and discipline. The philosopher Baruch Spinoza’s words ring true for managers: “All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.”

研究成果我们以已动用资本回报率（ROIC）与加权平均资本成本（WACC）的差值作为自变量，以企业价值对已动用资本之比作为因变量，对 1995 年、1990 年和 1985 年的包装食品行业数据进行了回归分析。正如金融理论（以及常识）所预示的那样，我们的结果表明，在十年的衡量周期内，回报率差值与企业估值之间的相关性相当强。同样重要的是，t 统计量表现显著，证明该模型具有强大的解释力。表 1 汇总了我们的 R 平方值和 t 统计量结果，图表 1 至图表 3 则展示了实际散点图。此外，我们进行的所有实证研究都表明，与每股收益增长和净资产收益率等其他广泛使用的价值衡量指标相比，ROIC 与 WACC 的差值是一个更优的企业估值指标。

Study Results We performed a regression analysis on packaged food industry data for 1995, 1990, and 1985 using the return on invested capital (ROIC) versus weighted average cost of capital (WACC) spread as the independent variable, and enterprise value to invested capital as the dependent variable. As finance theory (and common sense) would suggest, our results show that the correlation between return spreads and valuation was quite strong over a ten-year measurement period. As important, the t-statistics were impressive, demonstrating that the model has substantial explanatory power. Table 1 summarizes our r-squared and t-statistic findings, and Charts1-3 show the actual plots. Further, all of the empirical work we have done suggests that the ROIC to WACC spread is a better indicator of valuation than other widely used value proxies, including earnings per share growth and return on equity. 1 Table 1 Return Spreads Correlate Well with Valuation

年份	R 平方值	t 统计量
1995	88%	10.3
1990	55	3.5
1985	80	6.7

Year   R-squared   t-statistic
1995   88%   10.3
1990   55   3.5
1985   80   6.7

来源：已公布数据，CS 第一波士顿估计。

Source: Published data, CS First Boston estimates.

关于我们的研究结果，还有另外两点值得注意。第一是 Y 轴截距（即价差为零时的企业价值/投入资本）在我们追踪的这十年间保持稳定。第二，回归线的斜率在测量时间序列上变得更陡峭了。我们推测了这些情况出现的原因：

There are two other noteworthy points about our results. First is that the y-intercept (the enterprise value/invested capital at a zero spread) remained stable over the decade we tracked. Second, the slope of the regression line steepened over the measured time series. We hypothesize why these conditions have emerged:

• 纵轴截距——资本回报率等于资本成本的那个点——在三个测量期内几乎恒定，保持在约 1.6 倍企业价值与投入资本之比。（理论上，如果 ROIC 等于 WACC，企业价值应等于 1.0 倍投入资本。）我们认为，这一观察结果有两种可能的解释。第一种是，投入资本可能因通货膨胀而被低估。假设一家食品公司的固定资产平均使用寿命约为五年——该行业折旧通常占净厂房设备价值的 10%——且通胀率为 3%，那么投入资本可能被低估了 15-20%。这一观察，加上市场对该行业的看法在测量期内未发生显著变化这一论点，既解释了纵轴截距高于 1.0 倍的原因，也解释了其一致性。第二，我们认为市场很可能在提前计入未来价值创造，即增长机会的现值具有正值。在一个过去十年总体回报超过资本成本的行业中，这一假设或许并非不合理。

• The y-intercept—the point where the return on capital equals the cost of capital—remained nearly constant at about 1.6 times enterprise value to invested capital over the three measurement periods. (In theory, if the ROIC equals WACC, the enterprise value should equal 1.0 times invested capital.) We believe there are two potential explanations for this observation. The first is that invested capital may be understated as the result of inflation. Assuming that the average life of fixed assets for a food company is roughly five years—depreciation regularly represents 10% of net property plant and equipment in the industry—and that inflation equals 3%, invested capital may be understated by 15- 20%. This observation, when coupled with the the-sis that the market’s view of the industry has not changed dramatically in the measured period, explains both the y-intercept’s above-1.0 multiple and its consistency. Second, we believe the market is likely impounding future value creation, meaning that the present value of growth opportunities has had a positive value. This may not be an unreason-able assumption in an industry that has had, on balance, returns that exceed the cost of capital during the past decade.

1 参见《包装食品行业回报率分析，1994 年 7 月》

1 See “Packaged Food Industry Rate of Return Analysis,” July 1994.

• 回归线的斜率在十年测量期内变得更陡了。这意味着，对于任何既定的正 ROIC-WACC 利差，企业价值对投入资本的倍数随着时间的推移变得更高；而在负 ROIC-WACC 利差下，企业价值对投入资本的倍数则随着时间的推移趋于更低。

• The slope of the regression line has steepened over the ten-year measurement period. This means that for any given positive ROIC-WACC spread, the multiple of enterprise value to invested capital has become higher over time; given a negative ROIC-WACC spread, the multiple of enterprise value to invested capital trends lower over time.

再次请注意，截距并没有发生变化。我们认为对此有两种合理的解释。首先，我们感觉到可能存在“富者愈富、贫者愈贫”的现象，这解释了为何高回报公司能获得更高的相对估值，而低回报公司则被给予更低的倍数。用金融术语来说，我们可以讲，对竞争地位最强的公司而言，“竞争优势期”被认为在延长，而对回报率低的企业，这一期限则在缩短。² 其次，更低的利率——在我们的分析中具体表现为更低的加权平均资本成本——对企业价值与投入资本倍数产生了放大效应（见表 2）。

Again, note that the y-intercept has not changed. We believe there are two plausible explanations for this. First, we sense there might be a “rich get richer and poor get poorer” phenomenon, justifying the fact that high-return companies are enjoying higher relative valuations and low-return companies are receiving lower multiples. In finance terms, we might say that the “competitive advantage period” is deemed to be expanding for the best competitively positioned companies, and shrinking for weak return businesses. 2 Second, lower interest rates—expressed more specifically in our analysis as a lower weighted average cost of capital—have had a mag-nifying affect on enterprise value to invested capital multiples (see Table 2).

表 2 ROIC/WACC 比率如何定义估值倍数 1985 1990 1995 ROIC-WACC 利差 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 企业价值/投入资本 2.05 2.36 2.52 来源：公司公开数据，CS 第一波士顿银行估算。

Table 2 How ROIC/WACC Ratio Defines Multiples 1985 1990 1995 ROIC-WACC spread 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Enterprise value/invested capital 2.05 2.36 2.52 Source: Company published data, CS First Boston estimates.

用另一种方式表述就是：当已投资资本回报率（ROIC）与加权平均资本成本（WACC）之间的差额为正且保持不变时，企业价值与投入资本之比会随着 WACC 的下降而上升。

Stated differently, when the ROIC to WACC spread is positive and constant, the enterprise value to invested capital ratio will increase as WACC falls.

反过来，如果投入资本回报率（ROIC）与加权平均资本成本（WACC）之间的差值为负且恒定不变，那么企业价值与投入资本比率会随着 WACC 的下降而降低。³ 这一点的数学原理在附录中有详细说明。

Inversely, if the ROIC to WACC spread is negative and constant, the enterprise value to invested capital ratio declines as WACC falls. 3 The math behind this point is laid out in the appendix.

尽管我们的分析有力地表明，市场确实青睐高回报企业，但由此得出结论认为管理者的唯一目标是最大化投入资本回报率，这是不正确的。事实上，人

Although our analysis firmly suggests that the market appreciates high-return businesses, it is incorrect to conclude that a manager’s sole objective is to maximize returns on invested capital. In fact, man-

2 竞争优势期，是指一家公司在新增项目上能够获得超过资本成本的回报率的那段时期。

2 Competitive advantage period is the time during which a company is assumed to earn returns in excess of the cost of capital on incremental projects.

3 作者感谢查理·沃尔夫对这一点做出的澄清。在确定企业价值与投入资本的关系时，投入资本回报率与加权平均资本成本的比率才是关键变量，而不一定是两者之间的差值本身。

3 The author is indebted to Charlie Wolf for clarifying this point. In determining the enterprise value/invested capital relationship, the ratio of ROIC to WACC is the key variable, not necessarily the spread itself.

管理层的首要目标应当是最大化企业价值与投入资本之间的差额。

agement’s prime goal should be to maximize the difference between enterprise value and invested capital.

表 3 说明了这一观点为何成立。假设一家全股本公司有两个战略选项：它可以延续当前路径（情景 A），在 100 美元投资资本基础上赚取 20 美元利润；或者，追加 100 美元投资，以 15% 的增量回报率扩展业务（情景 B）。假设资本成本为 10%、发行在外的股份为 20 股，情景 A 下企业每股价值 20 美元，市净率 2.0 倍，ROIC 为 20%。在情景 B——假设资本追加通过发行股份融资——下，ROIC、市净率和发行在外股份数均被稀释，但每股价值却上升了近 17%。正是这个原因，我们认为管理层不应采用单纯与投入资本回报率挂钩的薪酬方案。

Table 3 outlines why this point is valid. Assume an all-equity financed company has two strategy options. It can either continue on its present course (scenario A), delivering $20 of earnings on a $100 invested capital base, or invest an additional $100 into its business at an incremental rate of return of 15% (scenario B). Assuming a 10% cost of capital and 20 shares outstanding, the business is worth $20 per share under scenario A, with a price-tobook ratio of 2.0 times and an ROIC of 20%. Under scenario B—assuming the capital addition was financed by issuing shares—the ROIC, price/book ratio and shares outstanding all get diluted. However, the value of each share rises almost 17%. This is precisely why we believe managers should avoid compensation programs linked solely to return on invested capital.

表 3　财富最大化并非仅与投入资本收益率相关

Table 3 Wealth Maximization Not Tied Solely to ROIC

情景 A	情景 B
税后营业利润（NOPAT）	20 美元	35 美元
投入资本	100 美元	200 美元
加权平均资本成本（WACC）	10%	10%
投入资本回报率（ROIC）	20%	17.5%
价值	200 美元	350 美元
市净率	2.0	1.75
流通股数	10	15
每股价值	20.00 美元	23.33 美元
市场传递的信息

Scenario A   Scenario B
NOPAT   $20   $35
Invested capital   100   200
WACC   10%   10%
ROIC   20   17.5
Value   $200   $350
Price/book   2.0   1.75
Shares outstanding   10   15
Value per share   $20.00   $23.33
Message from the Market

从我们的证据中，可以得出关于资本市场行为的两个重要结论。

We can draw two important conclusions about what our evidence says about capital markets behavior.

首先，市场通过给予超过 1.0 倍投入资本的估值倍数，来识别并体现价值的创造。这通常被称为“1 美元测试”。其次，市场在这方面长期保持一致，意味着它日复一日、年复一年地“关心”投入资本回报率。沃伦·巴菲特，美国最成功的投资者之一，在他 1982 年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的信中描述了“1 美元测试”的用法。他写道，“我们的工作是选择那些具有经济特性的企业，使得每一美元留存收益最终能转化为至少一美元的市场价值。”

The first is that the market recognizes and impounds value creation by granting a multiple of invested capital in excess of 1.0. This is often called the “$1 test.” Second, the market is consistent in this regard over time, meaning it “cares about” returns on invested capital day in, day out and year in, year out. Warren Buffett, one of America’s most successful investors, described the use of the “$1 test” in his 1982 Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders. He wrote, “it is our job to select businesses with economic characteristics allowing each dollar of retained earnings to be translated eventually into at

至少创造一美元的市场价值。”4 巴菲特之所以特别关注这项指标，在 20 世纪 80 年代初尤为恰当，当时利率以及由此带来的资本成本处于异常高的水平。核心在于，管理层投入企业的资金或多或少，其重要性并不及一个理念——投入企业的所有资本都必须产生相应的经济效益。此外，市场通常能清楚地看到这种情况是否在发生。

least a dollar of market value.” 4 Buffett’s focus on this measure was particularly appropriate in the early 1980s, when interest rates, and hence capital costs, were at extraordinarily high levels. The central point is that how much or how little management invests back into the business is not as important as the concept that all capital tied up in a business pull its economic weight. Further, the market generally clearly sees whether or not this is occurring.

如果说巴菲特 1982 年的评论还不足以证明“1 美元测试”经得起时间考验，那么分析单一公司时，看看回报差与投入资本市值比之间的关系，就能让“1 美元测试”活起来。图表 4 展示了桂格燕麦公司的年末回报差和投入资本市值倍数。最突出的一点是，回报差和倍数在 1994 财年达到最高，而在 1995 财年跌至最低（原因是 Snapple 交易）。值得注意的是，市场只是重新定价了企业对应的倍数，以适应新的低 ROIC 现实。万变不离其宗。

If Buffett’s comments from 1982 are not enough evidence of this “$1 test” holding true over time, a glimpse at the relationship between return spreads and the enterprise value to invested capital ratio brings to life the $1 test when analyzing a single company. Chart 4 shows the year-end spreads and enterprise value to invested capital multiples for Quaker Oats. What stands out is that the return spread and multiple were at their highest in fiscal 1994 and their lowest in fiscal 1995 (as a result of the Snapple deal). Remarkably, the market simply repriced the multiple accorded the business to adjust to the new, low-ROIC reality. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

给管理层的寄语

我们对管理层传递的核心信息是：最大化股东价值应成为首要目标。管理者需要关注驱动股东财富的两大基本要素。第一，必须坚持不懈地确保企业所投入的所有资本都能产生超过资本成本的回报（或有合理预期能够实现），同时要将无法创造价值的资本返还给股东。第二，管理者应持续寻求投资于能创造价值的项目和战略。以下我们将详细阐述这两个要点。

Message to Management Our overriding message to management is that maximizing shareholder value should be its primary goal. There are two fundamental drivers of shareholder wealth to which managers should be sensitive. First, there should be an unrelenting focus on making sure that all the capital lodged in the business generates returns in excess of the cost of capital (or can reasonably be expected to do so), with an eye toward returning nonproductive capital back to shareholders. Second, managers should constantly seek to invest in value-creating projects and strategies. We will develop these points in more detail.

在罗杰·洛温斯坦那本关于沃伦·巴菲特的优秀著作中，作者讲述了巴菲特与伯克希尔·哈撒韦新任总裁肯·钱斯之间的一次交流。那是 1965 年，

In Roger Lowenstein’s excellent book on Warren Buffett, the author recounts the exchange between Buffett and the newly appointed president of Berkshire Hathaway, Ken Chance. It was 1965 and

4 参见《伯克希尔致股东信 1977-1983》第 52 页。巴菲特当时刚接管伯克希尔，股价为每股 18 美元。5 洛温斯坦写道：“随后巴菲特向钱斯讲解了投资回报的基本原理。他并不特别关心钱斯生产了多少纱线，甚至不关心他卖了多少。巴菲特也不把利润本身当作一个孤立的数字来看待。真正重要的是利润占投入资本的百分比——这才是巴菲特衡量钱斯业绩的标尺。”

4 Berkshire Letters to Shareholders, 1977-1983, p. 52. Buffett had just taken control of Berkshire. The stock was at $18 per share. 5 Lowenstein writes: “Then Buffett explained to Chance the basic theory of return on investment. He didn’t particularly care how much yarn Chance produced, or even how much he sold. Nor was Buffett interested in the total profit as an isolated number. What counted was the profit as a percentage of the capital invested. That was the yardstick by which Buffett would grade Chance’s performance.

“对于像大多数管理者一样从小就被教导将增长视为绝对的好事——谢斯来说，这个想法是全新的。但他明白这对巴菲特的资本主义信条至关重要，而巴菲特用谢斯能理解的话来解释。

“To Chance, who had been reared, like most managers, to think of growth as an absolute good, this idea was new. But he grasped that is was pivotal to Buffett’s capitalist credo, and Buffett put in terms that Chance could understand.

“巴菲特说过：‘我宁可要一个赚 15% 的 1000 万美元生意，也不要一个赚 5% 的 1 亿美元生意。我的钱有其他地方可以放。’” 6 每位投资组合经理都应用同样的纪律约束管理者，因为投资组合经理确实有其他放钱的地方（即其他股票）。我们感觉到，投资领域的讨论太多聚焦于短期会计结果，而对资本配置的关注远远不够。

“‘I’d rather have a $10 million business making 15 percent than a $100 million business making 5 percent,’ Buffett said. ‘I have other places I can put the money.’” 6 Every portfolio manager should hold managers to the same discipline, because portfolio managers do have other places they can put the money (i.e., other stocks). We sense that too much of the dialogue in the investment business deals with near-term accounting-based results, and that not enough attention is paid to capital allocation.

同理，我们值得思考这样一个问题：有多少资本沉淀在那些无法（或没有前景）获得满意回报的企业中。专注于价值导向绩效衡量与规划的咨询公司马拉克合伙人（Marakon Associates）表示，根据其经验，对大多数公司而言，100% 的价值创造集中在不到 50% 的已动用资本上。7 这个数字表明，即使在美国——很可能是全球最具竞争力的经济体——释放价值的空间依然相当可观。

In the same context, it is worth considering the magnitude of capital lodged in businesses that does not earn (or does not have the prospects of earning) a satisfactory return. Marakon Associates, a con-sulting firm that concentrates on value-based performance measuring and planning, states that, in its experience, 100% of the value created for most companies is concentrated in less than 50% of the capital employed. 7 This figure suggests that even within the United States—likely the most competitive economy in the world—there remains substantial opportunity to unlock value.

5 此后的 30 年间，该股票的年复合涨幅达到 27%。

5 The stock rose 27% compounded annually in the sub-sequent 30 years.

6 Roger Lowenstein,《巴菲特：一个美国资本家的成长》（纽约：兰登书屋，1995 年）,第 131-132 页。

6 Roger Lowenstein, Buffett: The Making of an Ameri-can Capitalist (New York: Random House, 1995), pp. 131-132.

7 McTaggart、Kontes、Mankins，《价值法则》（纽约：自由出版社，1994 年），第 241 页。

7 McTaggart, Kontes, Mankins, The Value Imperative (New York: The Free Press, 1994), p. 241.

第二个要点是第一点的必然推论，那就是投资只应投向能创造价值的项目和策略。这句看似显而易见的话，还潜藏着几个更微妙的含义。首先，管理层必须对所有增加投入资本（invested capital）的资产负债表项目保持敏感，而不仅仅是资本支出和收购这些显而易见的项目。一个很好的例子是营运资金（working capital），它往往得不到应得的审视。

The second point, a necessary corollary to the first point, is the importance of investing only in value-creating projects and strategies. This seemingly obvious comment has a couple of more subtle implications. First, managers must be sensitive to all balance sheet items that add to invested capital, not just obvious ones like capital expenditures and acquisitions. A good example is working capital, which often does not get the scrutiny it deserves.

第二，我们认为有必要区分项目和策略。有时，一项投资支出从净现值角度看可能并不划算，但从整体价值创造的角度看，却可能是正确的选择。例如，一家公司可能会投资一个净现值为负的项目，而替代策略（即什么都不做）的价值更低。因此，我们强调管理者应该投资那些能使公司价值最大化的策略。话说回来，我们认为有太多管理者以“战略性”投资为幌子，错误地配置资本。简而言之，资本配置——从最宽泛的意义上说——是管理层的核心长期任务。

Second, we believe it is necessary to distinguish between projects and strategies. There are times when an investment outlay, viewed strictly on a net present value basis, may not provide the right answer in overall value creation. For example, a company may invest in a project that is NPV negative when the alternative strategy (i.e., doing nothing) has even less value. Hence we stress that managers invest in strategies that maximize the value of the firm. That noted, we believe too many managers hide behind the cloak of “strategic” investments as they misallocate capital. Simply stated, capital allocation, in the broadest sense of the term, is management’s central long-term task.

致分析师与投资组合经理的话：如果投资资本回报率（ROIC）与加权平均资本成本（WACC）之间的差值（财务层面）确实是企业价值与投资资本倍数（估值）的关键驱动力，那么思考分析师如何能获得竞争优势似乎就很有价值。我们认为，处理这个问题的正确方法是把 ROIC 与 WACC 的差值拆解成其主要构成部分。

Message to Analysts/Portfolio Managers If in fact the ROIC to WACC spread (financial) is the key driver of the enterprise value to invested capital multiple (valuation), it would appear worth-while to consider how an analyst might gain a competitive advantage. We believe the proper approach to this question is to dissect the ROIC to WACC spread into its prime components.

如果为了简化分析而忽略等式中的 WACC 部分（我们也承认，对资产负债表的右侧进行良好管理可以创造价值），那么 ROIC 就会成为焦点。而 ROIC 又可以分解为税后净营业利润（NOPAT）除以投入资本。NOPAT 与盈利的相关性很强，因此它似乎不是一个分析师能够从中获得持续优势的领域。然而，投入资本得到的关注却相对较少，因此可能更适合作为分析重点。换句话说，那些深入理解资本配置以及已投入资本预期回报的分析师，或许能更好地把握未来的盈利能力和估值倍数的走向（包括盈利和现金流的倍数）。

If one dismisses the WACC part of the equation to simplify the analysis (and we do recognize that value can be derived from good management of the right-hand side of the balance sheet), ROIC moves into the spotlight. ROIC, in turn, can be broken down into net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) divided by invested capital. NOPAT correlates quite well with earnings, and, as a result, does not appear to be an area where an analyst can derive a sustain-able advantage. Invested capital, however, tends to get proportionately less attention, and hence may be a better area for analytical focus. In other words, analysts who dig to understand the allocation of capital and the prospective returns on the employed capital may be better able to appreciate future earnings power and the direction of valuation multiples (including multiples of earnings and cash flow).

不出所料，我们发现，作为一名投资者获得优势的方式，与作为一名管理者获得竞争优势的方法如出一辙：弄清楚资本流向何处、流去多少，以及这些资本将收获怎样的回报。理论上听起来很简单，实践中却极其难以贯彻。

Not surprisingly, we find that the way of gaining an edge as an investor is identical to the method of gaining a competitive advantage as a manager. Understand where the capital is going, how much is going there, and at what return that capital will be greeted. As simple as it sounds in theory, it is extraordinarily difficult to pursue in practice.

注CS 第一波士顿公司可能在过去三年内担任过上述任何一家公司的证券公开发行的主承销商或联席主承销商，或为这些公司的证券做市。收盘价取自 1995 年 12 月 11 日。

N.B.CS First Boston Corporation may have, within the last three years, served as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for or makes a primary market in issues of any or all of the companies mentioned. Closing prices are as of December 11, 1995:

金宝汤（CPB，评级：持有，目标价：59 美元）

Campbell Soup (CPB, 59, Hold)

ConAgra（CAG，40 1/8 美元，持有）

ConAgra (CAG, 40 1 / 8 , Hold)

CPC 国际（CPC，70 1/4 美元，持有）

CPC International (CPC, 70 1 / 4 , Hold)

通用磨坊（GIS，55 1/4 美元，买入）

General Mills (GIS, 55 1 / 4 , Buy)

H.J. 亨氏（HNZ，32 7/8，持有）

H.J. Heinz (HNZ, 32 7 / 8 , Hold)

好时食品公司（HSY，65 美元，持有）

Hershey Foods (HSY, 65, Hold)

洲际烘焙公司（IBC，股价 21.25 美元，买入评级）

Interstate Bakeries (IBC, 21 1 / 4 , Buy)

Kellogg (K, 77 7 / 8 , Buy)

麦考密克（MCCRK，价格 23.25 美元，评级：买入）

McCormick (MCCRK, 23 1 / 4 , Buy)

晨星（MSTR，8，买入）

Morningstar (MSTR, 8, Buy)

纳贝斯克控股公司（NA，28 3/4，持有）桂格燕麦（OAT，36 1/8，买入）

Nabisco Holdings Corporation (NA, 28 3 / 4 , Hold) Quaker Oats (OAT, 36 1 / 8 , Buy)

雷科控股（RAH，24.25 美元，持有）

Ralcorp Holdings (RAH, 24 1 / 4 , Hold)

罗尔斯顿·普里纳公司（RAL，66 1/4 美元，买入）

Ralston Purina (RAL, 66 1 / 4 , Buy)

莎莉集团（SLE，33 1/4 美元，持有）

Sara Lee (SLE, 33 1 / 4 , Hold)

泰森食品（TYSNA，24 1/8，持有）

Tyson Foods (TYSNA, 24 1 / 8 , Hold)

术语解释竞争优势期（CAP）

Glossary Competitive Advantage Period (CAP)

一家公司能够持续获得高于资本成本的回报的时间长度。这取决于行业结构、竞争地位、政府政策以及整体市场信心等内外部因素。从具体操作层面来说，CAP 代表着贴现现金流模型中的预测期。

Length of time a company can sustain returns above its cost of capital. It is a function of internal and external factors such as industry structure, competitive position, government policy, and overall market confidence. In a nuts and bolts sense, CAP represents the forecast period for a discounted cash flow model.

经济账面价值（EBV）

Economic Book Value (EBV)

公司的“稳态”价值，即假设不会创造任何增量价值时的公司价值。它等于公司最近一期税后净营业利润（NOPAT）按公司加权平均资本成本资本化后的值减去债务。当市价与经济账面价值之比为 1.0 时，表明市场预期公司不会创造价值。

The “steady state” value of the firm, or the value of the firm assuming no incremental value will be created. It equals the company’s most recent net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) capitalized by the company’s weighted average cost of capital minus debt. A price-to-economic-book-value ratio of 1.0 suggests the market expects no value creation.

任何高于 1.0 的比率意味着价值创造，低于 1.0 则意味着价值毁灭。

Any ratio above 1.0 assumes value creation and anything below 1.0 assumes value destruction.

经济增加值（EVA）

Economic Value Added (EVA)

旨在通过对税后净营业利润（NOPAT）收取资本占用费的方式，来确定一家公司的“剩余”收入。

Seeks to determine the “residual” income of a company by charging NOPAT with a capital charge.

只有在公司的税后净营业利润（NOPAT）超过资本提供方对其使用净资产所要求的最低回报时，经济增加值（EVA）才为正数。计算公式如下：

EVA can be positive only when a company’s NOPAT is greater than the minimum return required by capital providers for the net assets the company employs. The formula is:

NOPAT -（投入资本 × 加权平均资本成本）

NOPAT - (invested capital * WACC)

企业价值股权市值（流通股数乘以股价）加上总债务（短期及长期）再加上优先股。

Enterprise Value Market value of equity (shares outstanding times stock price) plus total debt (short-term and long-term) plus preferred stock.

自由现金流（FCF）

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

代表可分配给所有索赔持有人的现金。该数字在税后计算，扣除资本投资（营运资本与固定资本支出），但未扣除融资成本。自由现金流是 NOPAT 与 I 之间的差额。在现金流贴现模型中，FCF 是被预测并贴现到现值的关键变量。

Represents the cash that is distributable to all claimholders. It is after tax, after capital investment (working and fixed capital spending), but before financing costs. Free cash flow is the difference between NOPAT and I. FCF is the number that is projected and discounted to a present value in a discounted cash flow model.

投资资本：一家公司用于产生其现金流的净资产总和。由于净资产必须被融资，投资资本可以从资产负债表的任何一侧计算。从资产一侧来看，投资资本等于净营运资本、固定资产净值、商誉及其他经营性资产。

Invested Capital Sum of the net assets a company employs to generate its cash flows. As net assets must be financed, invested capital may be calculated from either side of the balance sheet. From the asset side, invested capital equals net working capital, net PP & E, goodwill and other operating assets.

未来增长投资（一）

Investment in Future Growth (I)

代表一家公司每年在营运资本上的变动、资本支出（扣除折旧后）以及现金收购支出。它代表一家公司为增长其 NOPAT 所必须投入的“燃料”。

Represents the change in working capital, capital expenditures (net of depreciation) and cash acquisitions a company makes on an annual basis. I represents the “fuel” a company must use to grow its NOPAT.

市场增加值（MVA）

Market Value Added (MVA)

企业市场价值与其投入资本之间的差额。通常，若市场增加值（MVA）为正，意味着市场认为该公司能创造高于资本成本的回报。

The difference between a company’s market value and its invested capital. Generally, if MVA is positive the market believes a company will generate returns above its cost of capital.

税后营业净利润（NOPAT）

Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)

代表一家公司在完全无负债情况下所能赚取的现金利润。计算方式为：经营利润减去经调整后的税费（包括实际缴纳的现金税款以及由于利息支出产生的税盾价值），再加上商誉摊销额。NOPAT 是计算投入资本回报率时的分子。

Represents the cash profits a company would earn if it were completely debt-free. Operating income is reduced by adjusted taxes—which incorporate the cash taxes paid and the value of the tax shield from interest expense—and is increased by the amortiza-tion of goodwill. NOPAT is the numerator for an ROIC calculation.

投入资本回报率（ROIC）

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

税后净营业利润（NOPAT）除以平均投入资本。ROIC 显示公司对已投入运营的资本总额所获得的现金回报率。当与加权平均资本成本进行比较时，ROIC 有助于判断一家公司是否为股东创造价值。加权平均资本成本（WACC）

Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) divided by average invested capital. ROIC shows a company’s cash rate of return on the sum of capital it has put to work. When compared to the weighted average cost of capital, ROIC can help determine whether or not a company is creating value for its shareholders. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

反映了债务和股权持有者的机会成本，按其相对贡献在公司资本结构中的权重计算。这是公司必须达到的最低经济回报率，以补偿其债务和股权证券持有者所承担的风险。

Reflects the opportunity cost for debt and equity holders, weighted for their relative contribution to a company’s capital structure. It is the minimum economic return a company must generate to com-pensate its debt and equity security holders for their assumed risk.

图表 1 ROIC–WACC 与企业价值/投入资本比率， 1995 年除每股数据外，金额以百万美元计

Chart 1 ROIC–WACC Versus Enterprise Value/Invested Capital, 1995 $ in millions, except per share data

1995

4.5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA K 4.0 G AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 3.5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA 0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA3AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA CPB 2.5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA CPC RAL MCCRK HSY HNZ 2.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA RAH SLE OAT 1.5 C G AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA NA TYSNA MST R 1.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 企业价值/投入资本

4 .5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA K 4 .0 G IS AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 3 .5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA .0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA3AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA CPB 2 .5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA CPC RAL MCCRK HSY HNZ 2 .0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA RAH SLE OAT 1 .5 C G AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA NA TYSNA MST R 1 .0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Enterprise value/invested capital

IB C AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA 0 .5 AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA

原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

   AAAAAAAA
   AAAAAAAA
   AAAAAAAA
   AAAA
   0 .0
-4 .0 %   -2 .0 %   0 .0 %   2 .0 %   4 .0 %   6 .0 %   8 .0 %   1 0 .0 %
   y = 2 2 .6 5 7 x + 1 .6 2 9 7   ROIC - WACC

   AAAAAAAA
   AAAAAAAA
   AAAAAAAA
   AAAA
   0 .0
-4 .0 %   -2 .0 %   0 .0 %   2 .0 %   4 .0 %   6 .0 %   8 .0 %   1 0 .0 %
   y = 2 2 .6 5 7 x + 1 .6 2 9 7   RO IC -W A C C

回归统计量

多元相关系数 R 93.9%

判定系数 R 方 88.2%

调整后 R 方 87.4%

标准误差 33.4%

观测值 16

R egres s ion S tatis tic s M ultiple R 93.9% R S qua re 88.2% A djus ted R S qu are 87.4% S ta ndard E rror 33.4% O bs erv ations 16

系数标准误差 t 统计量 P 值下限 95% 上限 95% 截距 1.6 0.1 16.6 0.0 1.4 1.8 X 变量 1 22.7 2.2 10.3 0.0 17.9 27.4

C oeffic ie nts S ta ndard E rror t S ta t P -v alue Low er 95% U pper 95% Interc ept 1.6 0.1 16.6 0.0 1.4 1.8 X V aria ble 1 22.7 2.2 10.3 0.0 17.9 27.4

表 2 投入资本回报率-加权平均资本成本对比企业价值/投入资本，1990 年金额单位为百万美元，每股数据除外

Chart 2 ROIC–WACC Versus Enterprise Value/Invested Capital, 1990 $ in millions, except per share data

1990

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 4.0

3.5 GIS AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA K 3.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA HNZ AAAA 2.5 AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA CPC AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAA AAA HSY RAL CAG AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 2.0 MCCRK OAT SLE 1.5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA TYSNA 1.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

AAAA 0.5 AAAA 企业价值/投入资本

AAAA 0.5 AAAA Enterprise value/invested capital

AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAA AAA

原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

0.0 -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% y = 16.561x + 1.664 ROIC-WACC

回归统计多重 R 79.1% R 平方 62.5% 调整后 R 平方 58.3% 标准误差 43.7% 观测数 11

Regression Statistics Multiple R 79.1% R Square 62.5% Adjusted R Square 58.3% Standard Error 43.7% Observations 11

系数	标准误差	t 统计量	P 值	下限 95%	上限 95%
截距	1.7	0.2	8.1	0.0	1.2	2.1
X 变量 1	16.6	4.3	3.9	0.0	6.9	26.2

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 1.7 0.2 8.1 0.0 1.2 2.1 X Variable 1 16.6 4.3 3.9 0.0 6.9 26.2

表 3 投入资本回报率–加权平均资本成本对比企业价值/投入资本，1985 年（除每股数据外，单位：百万美元）

Chart 3 ROIC–WACC Versus Enterprise Value/Invested Capital, 1985 $ in millions, except per share data

1985

4.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA K AAAA 3.5AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAA 3.0AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAA

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 2.5 RAL GIS HNZ HSY CAG 2.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA MCCRK CPB TYSNA OAT 1.5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA SLE CPC 1.0 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 企业价值/投入资本

IBC 0.5 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

0.0 -6.0% -1.0% 4.0% 9.0% 14.0% 19.0% y = 11.15x + 1.6018 ROIC-WACC

回归统计多重相关系数 R 89.5% R 平方 80.1% 调整后 R 平方 78.3% 标准误差 33.0% 观测数 13

Regression Statistics Multiple R 89.5% R Square 80.1% Adjusted R Square 78.3% Standard Error 33.0% Observations 13

系数	标准误差	t 统计量	P 值	下限 95%	上限 95%
截距	1.6	0.1	15.3	0.0	1.4	1.8
X 变量 1	11.2	1.7	6.7	0.0	7.5	14.8

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 1.6 0.1 15.3 0.0 1.4 1.8 X Variable 1 11.2 1.7 6.7 0.0 7.5 14.8

图表 4 ROIC–WACC 对比企业价值/投入资本，桂格燕麦除每股数据外单位为百万美元

Chart 4 ROIC–WACC Versus Enterprise Value/Invested Capital, Quaker Oats $ in millions, except per share data

Quaker Oats: 1982-1995

3.50 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 1993

3.00 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 1994

2.50 1986 1991 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 1992 1987 1989

2.00 1990 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 1988 1995 1985 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA 1.50 1984 AAAA AAAA 1983 AAAAAAAA AAAA1982 1.00 AAAA AAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAAA AAAAAAA AAA 企业价值/投入资本

0.50 -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% y = 15.972x + 1.3988 ROIC-WACC

回归统计数据

复相关系数 R 78.5%

判定系数 R² 61.6%

调整后判定系数 58.4%

标准误差 43.0%

观测次数 14

Regression Statistics Multiple R 78.5% R Square 61.6% Adjusted R Square 58.4% Standard Error 43.0% Observations 14

系数	标准误差	t 统计量	P 值	下限 95%	上限 95%
截距	1.4	0.2	7.3	0.0	1.0	1.8
X 变量 1	16.0	3.6	4.4	0.0	8.0	23.9

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 1.4 0.2 7.3 0.0 1.0 1.8 X Variable 1 16.0 3.6 4.4 0.0 8.0 23.9

支持数据，1995 年单位：百万美元，每股数据除外

Support Data, 1995 $ in millions, except per share data

FISCAL

1995 Enterprise Value/

公司	评级	股价*	股数（百万）*	债务	优先股	企业价值	NOPAT	投入资本	ROIC	WACC	ROIC-WACC 差值	投入资本倍数
金宝汤	A	46.75	249	1722.0	0.0	13362.8	837.6	5016.00	16.7%	10.6%	6.1%	2.7 X
康尼格拉	A	32.88	245	2567.90	354.9	10977.2	741.58	6597.00	11.2%	11.2%	0.0%	1.7 X
CPC 国际	E	66.38	146	1710.0	0.0	11400.8	667.34	4633.00	14.4%	10.0%	4.4%	2.5 X
通用磨坊 **	A	50.00	159	1607.5	0.0	9557.5	499.37	2343.9	21.3%	11.6%	9.7%	4.1 X
H.J. 亨氏	A	42.38	260	3401.1	0.0	14418.6	957.50	6631.41	14.4%	10.5%	4.0%	2.2 X
好时可可	E	59.75	81	504.5	0.0	5344.2	321.60	2467.32	13.0%	10.3%	2.8%	2.2 X
州际面包公司	A	14.63	20	213	0.0	505.7	36.08	490.32	7.4%	9.6%	-2.3%	1.0 X
家乐氏	E	72.25	219	591.5	0.0	16414.3	774.70	3718.40	20.8%	11.5%	9.3%	4.4 X
味好美	E	24.75	81	733.3	0.0	2738.0	134.63	1348.17	10.0%	10.5%	-0.5%	2.0 X
晨星集团	E	7.75	15	61.9	0.0	178.1	12.69	128.66	9.9%	10.3%	-0.4%	1.4 X
纳贝斯克控股公司	E	27.00	265	4660.0	0.0	11815.0	701.50	10944.00	6.4%	8.8%	-2.4%	1.1 X
桂格燕麦	A	32.75	134	1652.0	0.0	6030.7	331.75	3562.90	9.3%	10.9%	-1.6%	1.7 X
Ralcorp 控股	E	23.00	34	379.4	0.0	1161.4	63.50	614.10	10.3%	9.0%	1.3%	1.9 X
罗尔斯顿普瑞纳	A	58.13	101	2049.4	0.0	7920.0	490.75	3273.28	15.0%	9.3%	5.7%	2.4 X
莎莉集团	A	28.25	481	2597.0	300.0	16475.5	1169.62	8258.00	14.2%	11.5%	2.7%	2.0 X
泰森食品	E	23.88	145	1557.9	0.0	5020.5	306.04	3423.77	8.9%	10.1%	-1.1%	1.5 X
组别均值		38.16	165	1625.5	40.9	8332.5	502.89	3965.64	12.7%	10.4%	2.4%	2.2 X

   Shares   Total   Preferred   Enterprise   Invested   ROIC-WACC   Invested Capital
Company   Price*   (MM)*   Debt   Stock   Value   NOPAT   Capital   ROIC   WACC   Spread   Multiple
Campbell Soup   A   46.75   249   1,722.0   0.0   13,362.8   837.6   5,016.00   16.7%   10.6%   6.1%   2.7 X
ConAgra   A   32.88   245   2,567.90   354.9   10,977.2   741.58   6,597.00   11.2%   11.2%   0.0%   1.7 X
CPC International   E   66.38   146   1,710.0   0.0   11,400.8   667.34   4,633.00   14.4%   10.0%   4.4%   2.5 X
General Mills **   A   50.00   159   1,607.5   0.0   9,557.5   499.37   2,343.9   21.3%   11.6%   9.7%   4.1 X
H.J. Heinz   A   42.38   260   3,401.1   0.0   14,418.6   957.50   6,631.41   14.4%   10.5%   4.0%   2.2 X
Hershey Foods   E   59.75   81   504.5   0.0   5,344.2   321.60   2,467.32   13.0%   10.3%   2.8%   2.2 X
Interstate Bakeries   A   14.63   20   213   0.0   505.7   36.08   490.32   7.4%   9.6%   -2.3%   1.0 X
Kellogg   E   72.25   219   591.5   0.0   16,414.3   774.70   3,718.40   20.8%   11.5%   9.3%   4.4 X
McCormick   E   24.75   81   733.3   0.0   2,738.0   134.63   1,348.17   10.0%   10.5%   -0.5%   2.0 X
Morningstar   E   7.75   15   61.9   0.0   178.1   12.69   128.66   9.9%   10.3%   -0.4%   1.4 X
Nabisco Holdings Corp.   E   27.00   265   4,660.0   0.0   11,815.0   701.50   10,944.00   6.4%   8.8%   -2.4%   1.1 X
Quaker Oats   A   32.75   134   1,652.0   0.0   6,030.7   331.75   3,562.90   9.3%   10.9%   -1.6%   1.7 X
Ralcorp Holdings   E   23.00   34   379.4   0.0   1,161.4   63.50   614.10   10.3%   9.0%   1.3%   1.9 X
Ralston Purina   A   58.13   101   2,049.4   0.0   7,920.0   490.75   3,273.28   15.0%   9.3%   5.7%   2.4 X
Sara Lee   A   28.25   481   2,597.0   300.0   16,475.5   1,169.62   8,258.00   14.2%   11.5%   2.7%   2.0 X
Tyson Foods   E   23.88   145   1,557.9   0.0   5,020.5   306.04   3,423.77   8.9%   10.1%   -1.1%   1.5 X
  Group Averages   38.16   165   1,625.5   40.9   8,332.5   502.89   3,965.64   12.7%   10.4%   2.4%   2.2 X

数据截止 1995 年 10 月 31 日的价格与股份数为估计值。** 价格为 1995 年 5 月 30 日的数据。

Price and Shares as of October 31, 1995 for estimates. ** Price as of May 30, 1995.

支持数据，1990 年，单位：百万美元，每股数据除外

Support Data, 1990 $ in millions, except per share data

1990 Enterprise Value/

原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

公司	股价	股份数量（百万）	总债务	优先股	企业价值	税后净营业利润	投入资本	资本回报率	加权平均资本成本	利差	投入资本倍数
康尼格拉	20.50	184.09	1018.30	2.2	4794.3	342.75	2219.49	15.4%	11.9%	3.5%	2.2 倍
CPC 国际	41.63	150.91	1585.20	0.0	7867.6	472.72	3463.00	13.7%	11.3%	2.4%	2.3 倍
通用磨坊	40.31	163.20	872.10	0.0	7450.7	410.94	2119.40	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	3.5 倍
H.J. 亨氏	31.13	259.44	1256.61	0.0	9333.0	650.92	3473.60	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	2.7 倍
好时食品	37.50	90.19	297.80	0.0	3679.9	199.99	1714.65	11.7%	12.0%	-0.3%	2.1 倍
家乐氏	37.94	241.32	678.20	0.0	9833.9	595.87	2973.90	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	3.3 倍
味好美	11.50	83.72	241.90	0.0	1204.7	81.72	649.63	12.6%	12.1%	0.5%	1.9 倍
桂格燕麦	23.88	151.18	1115.80	0.0	4725.2	347.89	2563.10	13.6%	10.8%	2.8%	1.8 倍
罗尔斯顿·普瑞纳	49.57	111.35	2363.60	0.0	7883.2	634.23	3415.60	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	2.3 倍
萨拉·李	14.57	460.68	1867.00	300.0	8876.8	691.55	5365.00	12.9%	11.3%	1.6%	1.7 倍
泰森食品	13.00	136.60	1020.5	0.0	2796.3	240.96	2228.08	10.8%	10.7%	0.1%	1.3 倍
组别平均值	26.79	169.39	1026.42	25.2	5703.8	389.13	2515.45	13.9%	10.6%	3.4%	2.1 倍

   Share   Shares   Total   Preferred   Enterprise   Invested   ROIC-WACC   Invested Capital
Company   Price   (MM)   Debt   Stock   Value   NOPAT   Capital   ROIC   WACC   Spread   Multiple
ConAgra   20.50   184.09   1,018.30   2.2   4,794.3   342.75   2,219.49   15.4%   11.9%   3.5%   2.2 X
CPC International   41.63   150.91   1,585.20   0.0   7,867.6   472.72   3,463.00   13.7%   11.3%   2.4%   2.3 X
General Mills   40.31   163.20   872.10   0.0   7,450.7   410.94   2,119.40   19.4%   12.2%   7.2%   3.5 X
H.J. Heinz   31.13   259.44   1,256.61   0.0   9,333.0   650.92   3,473.60   18.7%   11.8%   6.9%   2.7 X
Hershey Foods   37.50   90.19   297.80   0.0   3,679.9   199.99   1,714.65   11.7%   12.0%   -0.3%   2.1 X
Kellogg   37.94   241.32   678.20   0.0   9,833.9   595.87   2,973.90   20.0%   12.2%   7.8%   3.3 X
McCormick   11.50   83.72   241.90   0.0   1,204.7   81.72   649.63   12.6%   12.1%   0.5%   1.9 X
Quaker Oats   23.88   151.18   1,115.80   0.0   4,725.2   347.89   2,563.10   13.6%   10.8%   2.8%   1.8 X
Ralston Purina   49.57   111.35   2,363.60   0.0   7,883.2   634.23   3,415.60   18.6%   10.6%   8.0%   2.3 X
Sara Lee   14.57   460.68   1,867.00   300.0   8,876.8   691.55   5,365.00   12.9%   11.3%   1.6%   1.7 X
Tyson Foods   13.00   136.60   1,020.5   0.0   2,796.3   240.96   2,228.08   10.8%   10.7%   0.1%   1.3 X
  Group Averages   26.79   169.39   1,026.42   25.2   5,703.8   389.13   2,515.45   13.9%   10.6%   3.4%   2.1 X

支持数据，1985 年，单位：百万美元，除每股数据外

Support Data, 1985 $ in millions, except per share data

1985 Enterprise Value/

原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

公司	股价	股份（百万）	总债务	优先股	企业价值	税后营业利润	投入资本	投入资本回报率	加权平均资本成本	投入资本回报率 - 加权平均资本成本	投入资本倍数
金宝汤	9.32	258.58	389.26	0.0	2,799.2	256.96	1,555.56	16.5%	13.2%	3.3%	1.8 倍
康尼格拉	7.55	149.02	283.84	23.6	1,432.5	153.96	684.94	22.5%	13.4%	9.1%	2.1 倍
CPC 国际	12.84	194.54	749.10	0.0	3,247.0	287.98	2,357.60	12.2%	11.5%	0.7%	1.4 倍
通用磨坊	15.00	177.76	888.70	0.0	3,555.1	213.13	1,675.40	12.7%	12.7%	0.0%	2.1 倍
H.J. 亨氏	11.94	266.82	463.41	0.0	3,649.2	342.31	1,598.48	21.4%	13.3%	8.1%	2.3 倍
好时食品	17.13	94.01	119.79	0.0	1,729.7	131.26	904.60	14.5%	12.7%	1.8%	1.9 倍
州际面包公司	12.50	3.70	41.50	0.0	87.8	6.69	115.57	5.8%	11.5%	-5.7%	0.8 倍
家乐氏	16.97	246.74	427.40	0.0	4,614.6	354.26	1,217.80	29.1%	12.6%	16.5%	3.8 倍
味可美	4.42	98.00	151.30	0.0	584.6	41.68	346.54	12.0%	12.6%	-0.6%	1.7 倍
桂格燕麦	13.03	161.28	336.20	0.0	2,437.9	209.87	1,343.10	15.6%	13.0%	2.6%	1.8 倍
罗尔斯顿普瑞纳	22.94	160.37	930.30	0.0	4,609.2	321.09	1,872.70	17.1%	12.5%	4.6%	2.5 倍
莎拉李	5.39	428.05	624.65	75.0	3,006.8	288.89	2,086.67	13.8%	12.9%	0.9%	1.4 倍
泰森食品	3.58	127.60	140.80	0.0	597.6	36.06	370.82	9.7%	12.4%	-2.7%	1.6 倍
组平均值	11.74	182.04	426.63	7.6	2,488.6	203.39	1,240.75	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	1.9 倍

   Share   Shares   Total   Preferred   Enterprise   Invested   ROIC-WACC   Invested Capital
Company   Price   (MM)   Debt   Stock   Value   NOPAT   Capital   ROIC   WACC   Spread   Multiple
Campbell Soup   9.32   258.58   389.26   0.0   2,799.2   256.96   1,555.56   16.5%   13.2%   3.3%   1.8 X
ConAgra   7.55   149.02   283.84   23.6   1,432.5   153.96   684.94   22.5%   13.4%   9.1%   2.1 X
CPC International   12.84   194.54   749.10   0.0   3,247.0   287.98   2,357.60   12.2%   11.5%   0.7%   1.4 X
General Mills   15.00   177.76   888.70   0.0   3,555.1   213.13   1,675.40   12.7%   12.7%   0.0%   2.1 X
H.J. Heinz   11.94   266.82   463.41   0.0   3,649.2   342.31   1,598.48   21.4%   13.3%   8.1%   2.3 X
Hershey Foods   17.13   94.01   119.79   0.0   1,729.7   131.26   904.60   14.5%   12.7%   1.8%   1.9 X
Interstate Bakeries   12.50   3.70   41.50   0.0   87.8   6.69   115.57   5.8%   11.5%   -5.7%   0.8 X
Kellogg   16.97   246.74   427.40   0.0   4,614.6   354.26   1,217.80   29.1%   12.6%   16.5%   3.8 X
McCormick   4.42   98.00   151.30   0.0   584.6   41.68   346.54   12.0%   12.6%   -0.6%   1.7 X
Quaker Oats   13.03   161.28   336.20   0.0   2,437.9   209.87   1,343.10   15.6%   13.0%   2.6%   1.8 X
Ralston Purina   22.94   160.37   930.30   0.0   4,609.2   321.09   1,872.70   17.1%   12.5%   4.6%   2.5 X
Sara Lee   5.39   428.05   624.65   75.0   3,006.8   288.89   2,086.67   13.8%   12.9%   0.9%   1.4 X
Tyson Foods   3.58   127.60   140.80   0.0   597.6   36.06   370.82   9.7%   12.4%   -2.7%   1.6 X
  Group Averages   11.74   182.04   426.63   7.6   2,488.6   203.39   1,240.75   15.6%   12.6%   3.0%   1.9 X

Support Data、Quaker Oats 数据，单位：百万美元，每股数据除外

Support Data, Quaker Oats $ in millions, except per share data

原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

公司：桂格
年份  每股价格  股份数（百万）  总债务  优先股  企业价值  NOPAT  投入资本  ROIC  WACC  利差  投入资本倍数
1982  5.00  156.8  350.5  0.0  1,134.6  162.98  1,166.7  14.0%  14.5%  -0.5%  0.97 X
1983  6.38  159.5  343.0  0.0  1,359.7  185.62  1,154.4  16.1%  12.6%  3.5%  1.18 X
1984  7.97  162.0  417.2  0.0  1,708.2  239.64  1,374.8  17.4%  13.7%  3.7%  1.24 X
1985  13.03  161.3  336.2  0.0  2,437.7  209.87  1,343.1  15.6%  13.0%  2.6%  1.81 X
1986  19.63  156.1  598.2  0.0  3,662.4  218.91  1,475.1  14.8%  10.4%  4.5%  2.48 X
1987  26.38  159.0  1,096.4  0.0  5,289.0  335.40  2,215.1  15.1%  10.2%  5.0%  2.39 X
1988  22.31  158.8  641.0  0.0  4,183.8  275.00  2,219.1  12.4%  11.5%  0.9%  1.89 X
1989  31.13  157.5  900.8  0.0  5,804.2  432.73  2,434.0  17.8%  11.3%  6.5%  2.38 X
1990  23.88  151.2  1,115.8  0.0  4,725.2  347.89  2,563.1  13.6%  10.8%  2.8%  1.84 X
1991  31.00  152.7  814.7  0.0  5,547.2  359.93  2,189.3  16.4%  11.1%  5.4%  2.53 X
1992  28.38  146.8  807.6  0.0  4,973.1  371.10  2,071.3  17.9%  10.7%  7.2%  2.40 X
1993  37.88  144.0  809.5  0.0  6,261.6  364.96  1,887.7  19.3%  10.3%  9.1%  3.32 X
1994  34.88  135.4  1,016.2  0.0  5,739.0  406.01  2,040.9  19.9%  10.4%  9.5%  2.81 X
1995  32.75  133.7  1,652.0  0.0  6,030.7  331.75  3,562.90  9.3%  10.9%  -1.6%  1.69 X

Company: Quaker
   Enterprise Value/
   Share   Shares   Total   Preferred   Enterprise   Invested   ROIC-WACC   Invested Capital
Year   Price   (MM)   Debt   Stock   Value   NOPAT   Capital   ROIC   WACC   Spread   Multiple
1982   5.00   156.8   350.5   0.0   1,134.6   162.98   1,166.7   14.0%   14.5%   -0.5%   0.97 X
1983   6.38   159.5   343.0   0.0   1,359.7   185.62   1,154.4   16.1%   12.6%   3.5%   1.18 X
1984   7.97   162.0   417.2   0.0   1,708.2   239.64   1,374.8   17.4%   13.7%   3.7%   1.24 X
1985   13.03   161.3   336.2   0.0   2,437.7   209.87   1,343.1   15.6%   13.0%   2.6%   1.81 X
1986   19.63   156.1   598.2   0.0   3,662.4   218.91   1,475.1   14.8%   10.4%   4.5%   2.48 X
1987   26.38   159.0   1,096.4   0.0   5,289.0   335.40   2,215.1   15.1%   10.2%   5.0%   2.39 X
1988   22.31   158.8   641.0   0.0   4,183.8   275.00   2,219.1   12.4%   11.5%   0.9%   1.89 X
1989   31.13   157.5   900.8   0.0   5,804.2   432.73   2,434.0   17.8%   11.3%   6.5%   2.38 X
1990   23.88   151.2   1,115.8   0.0   4,725.2   347.89   2,563.1   13.6%   10.8%   2.8%   1.84 X
1991   31.00   152.7   814.7   0.0   5,547.2   359.93   2,189.3   16.4%   11.1%   5.4%   2.53 X
1992   28.38   146.8   807.6   0.0   4,973.1   371.10   2,071.3   17.9%   10.7%   7.2%   2.40 X
1993   37.88   144.0   809.5   0.0   6,261.6   364.96   1,887.7   19.3%   10.3%   9.1%   3.32 X
1994   34.88   135.4   1,016.2   0.0   5,739.0   406.01   2,040.9   19.9%   10.4%   9.5%   2.81 X
1995   32.75   133.7   1,652.0   0.0   6,030.7   331.75   3,562.90   9.3%   10.9%   -1.6%   1.69 X

市场/账面比率当资本回报率等于加权平均资本成本时单位：百万美元，每股数据除外

Market/Book When ROIC Equals WACC $ in millions, except per share data

	第 1 年	第 2 年	第 3 年	第 4 年	第 5 年	永续期
投入资本	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000
投入资本回报率	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%
加权平均资本成本	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%
经济增加值	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0

   Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Perpetuity
Invested capital   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000
ROIC   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%
WACC   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%
EVA   $0   $0   $0   $0   $0   $0

Perpetuity factor 8.333

折现因子	0.893	0.797	0.712	0.636	0.567	4.729
若 ROIC = WACC，则
经济增加值 (EVA) 现值	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	WACC 的取值水平
EVA 现值合计	$0				无关紧要，且
初始资本	$1,000					市净率始终为
企业价值	$1,000					1.0。

Discount factor   0.893   0.797   0.712   0.636   0.567   4.729
   If ROIC = WACC, then
PV EVA   $0   $0   $0   $0   $0   $0   the level of WACC does
Sum PV EVA   $0   not matter, and the
Beginning capital   $1,000   market/book is always
Enterprise value   $1,000   1.0.

Market/book 1.00

市值/账面值（当投资资本回报率低于加权平均资本成本时）

（单位：百万美元，除每股数据外）

Market/Book When ROIC Is Less Than WACC $ in millions, except per share data

年份	第 1 年	第 2 年	第 3 年	第 4 年	第 5 年	永续期
投入资本	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元
投入资本回报率（ROIC）	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
加权平均资本成本（WACC）	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%
经济增加值（EVA）	（30 美元）	（30 美元）	（30 美元）	（30 美元）	（30 美元）	（30 美元）

Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Perpetuity
Invested capital   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000
ROIC   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%
WACC   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%
EVA   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)

永续因子 8.333 折现因子 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 4.729

Perpetuity factor 8.333 Discount factor 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 4.729

PV EVA （27 美元）（24 美元）（21 美元）（19 美元）（17 美元）（142 美元） PV EVA 合计（250 美元）

PV EVA ($27) ($24) ($21) ($19) ($17) ($142) Sum PV EVA ($250)

初始资本	$1,000
企业价值	$750
市净率	0.75
年份	第 1 年	第 2 年	第 3 年	第 4 年	第 5 年	永续年
投入资本	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000
投入资本回报率	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%	6.0%
加权平均资本成本	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
经济增加值	($30)	($30)	($30)	($30)	($30)	($30)

Beginning capital   $1,000
Enterprise value   $750
Market/book   0.75
Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Perpetuity
Invested capital   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000
ROIC   6.0%   6.0%   6.0%   6.0%   6.0%   6.0%
WACC   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%
EVA   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)   ($30)

永续因子 11.111 折现因子 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 7.221

Perpetuity factor 11.111 Discount factor 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 7.221

PV EVA：（27 美元）（24 美元）（21 美元）（19 美元）（17 美元）（217 美元） PV EVA 合计：（325 美元）

PV EVA ($27) ($24) ($21) ($19) ($17) ($217) Sum PV EVA ($325)

期初资本 1000 美元企业价值 675 美元市净率 0.68 如果（投入资本回报率－加权平均资本成本）< 0 且保持不变，那么市净率会随着加权平均资本成本的下降而下降。决定市净率的是投入资本回报率与加权平均资本成本的比值，而不是两者之间的差值。

Beginning capital $1,000 Enterprise value $675 Market/book 0.68 If (ROIC-WACC) < 0 and remains constant, then the market/book ratio decreases as the WACC falls.The ratio of ROIC to WACC defines market/book, not just the spread.

市场/账面比率——当投资资本回报率高于加权平均资本成本时单位：百万美元，每股数据除外

Market/Book When ROIC Is Greater Than WACC $ in millions, except per share data

	第 1 年	第 2 年	第 3 年	第 4 年	第 5 年	永续期
投入资本	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000	$1,000
投入资本回报率	18.0%	18.0%	18.0%	18.0%	18.0%	18.0%
加权平均资本成本	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%	12.0%
经济增加值	$60	$60	$60	$60	$60	$60

   Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Perpetuity
Invested capital   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000
ROIC   18.0%   18.0%   18.0%   18.0%   18.0%   18.0%
WACC   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%   12.0%
EVA   $60   $60   $60   $60   $60   $60

永续因子 8.333 折现因子 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 4.729

Perpetuity factor 8.333 Discount factor 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 4.729

PV EVA

$54

$48

$43

$38

$34

$284

PV EVA 合计 $500

期初资本 $1,000

企业价值 $1,500

如果 (ROIC-WACC) > 0 且市账率 1.50 保持不变，那么当 WACC 下降时，市账率会上升。ROIC 的比率

PV EVA $54 $48 $43 $38 $34 $284 Sum PV EVA $500 Beginning capital $1,000 Enterprise value $1,500 If (ROIC-WACC) > 0 and Market/book 1.50 remains constant, then the market/book ratio increases as the WACC falls.The ratio of ROIC

年份	第 1 年	第 2 年	第 3 年	第 4 年	第 5 年	永续期
投入资本	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元	1000 美元
投入资本回报率	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
加权平均资本成本	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
经济增加值	60 美元	60 美元	60 美元	60 美元	60 美元	60 美元

   Year 1   Year 2   Year 3   Year 4   Year 5   Perpetuity   to WACC defines market/book,
Invested capital   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   $1,000   not just the spread.
ROIC   15.0%   15.0%   15.0%   15.0%   15.0%   15.0%
WACC   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%   9.0%
EVA   $60   $60   $60   $60   $60   $60

永久性因子 11.111 折现因子 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 7.221

Perpetuity factor 11.111 Discount factor 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 7.221

PV EVA 54 美元 48 美元 43 美元 38 美元 34 美元 433 美元合计 PV EVA 650 美元期初资本 1000 美元企业价值 1650 美元市净率 1.65

PV EVA $54 $48 $43 $38 $34 $433 Sum PV EVA $650 Beginning capital $1,000 Enterprise value $1,650 Market/book 1.65

美国纽约州纽约市东 52 街 55 号美洲公园大道广场，邮编 10055

Americas Park Avenue Plaza 55 East 52nd Street New York, NY 10055, U.S.A.

城市	电话	城市	电话
纽约	212 909 2000	亚特兰大	404 656 9500
墨西哥城	011 525 202 6000	波士顿	617 556 5500
明尼阿波利斯	612 935 7400	布宜诺斯艾利斯	011 541 394 3100/8455
费城	215 851 1000	芝加哥	312 750 3000
波特兰	207 780 6210	克利夫兰	216 479-6878
旧金山	415 765 7000	休斯顿	713 220 6700
圣保罗	011 55 11 822 4862	洛杉矶	213 253 2000
多伦多	416 947 2600

212 909 2000
Atlanta   404 656 9500   Mexico City   011 525 202 6000
Boston   617 556 5500   Minneapolis   612 935 7400
Buenos Aires   011 541 394 3100/8455   Philadelphia   215 851 1000
Chicago   312 750 3000   Portland   207 780 6210
Cleveland   216 479-6878   San Francisco   415 765 7000
Houston   713 220 6700   São Paulo   011 55 11 822 4862
Los Angeles   213 253 2000   Toronto   416 947 2600

欧洲
卡伯特广场 1 号
伦敦 E14 4QJ，英国
44 1 71 516 1616
阿姆斯特丹 3120 556 7222	米兰 392 7601 2482
布达佩斯 361 175 9002	巴黎 331 4076 8888
法兰克福 49 69 15340	布拉格 422 2481 0937
日内瓦 4122 732 9050	华沙 48 2 630 6212
马德里 341 555 0796	楚格 4142 232151
莫斯科 7 095 564 8777	苏黎世 411 252 4477

Europe
One Cabot Square
London E14 4QJ, England
44 1 71 516 1616
Amsterdam   3120 556 7222   Milan   392 7601 2482
Budapest   361 175 9002   Paris   331 4076 8888
Frankfurt   49 69 15340   Prague   422 2481 0937
Geneva   4122 732 9050   Warsaw   48 2 630 6212
Madrid   341 555 0796   Zug   4142 232151
Moscow   7 095 564 8777   Zurich   411 252 4477

太平洋
城山大厦
东京都港区虎之门 4-3-1
日本东京 105
813 5404 9000
奥克兰 649 302 5500	首尔 822 399 7355
北京 861 501 4538	新加坡 65 535 3088
香港 852 847 0388	惠灵顿 644 474 4000
大阪 816 243 0789

Pacific
Shiroyama Hills
4-3-1 Toranomon
Minato-ku, Tokyo 105, Japan
813 5404 9000
Auckland   649 302 5500   Seoul   822 399 7355
Beijing   861 501 4538   Singapore   65 535 3088
Hong Kong   852 847 0388   Wellington   644 474 4000
Osaka   816 243 0789

This memorandum is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, any security. While the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may from time to time have long or short positions in and buy and sell securities referred to herein. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. © 1995, CS First Boston Corporation