我在特百惠派对上学会的一切：特百惠派对如何教你投资与生活
2003 年 2 月 25 日 第 2 卷第 4 期
February 25, 2003 Volume 2, Issue 4
我在特百惠派对上学会了一切需要知道的事 特百惠派对教你投资与人生
All I Really Need to Know I Learned at a Tupperware Party What Tupperware Parties Teach You about Investing and Life
任何一个熟悉特百惠派对运作方式的人，都能认出其中各种影响力武器的使用……
Anybody familiar with the workings of a Tupperware party will recognize the use of various weapons of influence . . .
罗伯特·西奥迪尼，《影响力：说服心理学》
Robert Cialdini 1 Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion
特百惠……发展出了一套我认为是腐败的心理操纵体系。但这套做法……很有效，而且经久不衰。特百惠派对在几十年里卖出了数十亿美元的商品。
Tupperware . . . developed what I believe to be a corrupt system of psychological manipulation. But the practice . . . worked and had legs. Tupperware parties sold billions of dollars of merchandise for decades.
查理·芒格，《查理·芒格讲话——第二部分》
Charlie Munger 2 Charlie Munger Speaks-Part 2
擦鞋店的提示 在我们老办公楼附近，一家鞋店的橱窗里打出广告，慷慨地提供免费擦鞋服务。我从这家店门前走过几十次，从未在意过。但有一天，我的鞋看起来有点脏，时间又宽裕，我决定去享受一下这份小馈赠。
A Tip from Shining Shoes Nearby our old office building, the window of a shoe store advertised the generous offer of a free shoeshine. I walked by this store dozens of times and thought nothing of it. One day, though, with my shoes looking a little scuffed and some time on my hands, I decided to avail myself of this small bounty.
擦完鞋后，我给了擦鞋师傅小费。他拒绝了。免费就是免费，他说。我从椅子上下来，心里明显觉得亏欠。“这人给我擦了鞋，”我想，“却什么都不图？”
After my shine, I offered the shoeshine man a tip. He refused. Free was free, he said. I climbed down from the chair feeling distinctly indebted. “How could this guy shine my shoes,” I thought, “and expect nothing?”
于是，我做了我认为大多数享受这项服务的人都会做的事——四处看看有没有什么可买的。我总得还清这笔人情。既然我不需要鞋子，我发现自己心不在焉地翻看着鞋撑、鞋带和鞋油。最后，我两手空空、心里不踏实地溜出了店门。虽然我总算没掏钱包就逃了出来，但我敢肯定，很多其他顾客就没这么幸运了。
So I did what I suspect most people who take the offer do—I looked around for something to
迈克尔·J·莫布森 212-325-3108
buy. I had to even the score, somehow. Since I didn’t need shoes, I found myself mindlessly perusing shoetrees, laces, and polish. Finally, I slinked out of the store empty-handed and uneasy. Even though I had managed to escape without pulling out my wallet, I was sure many Michael J. Mauboussin 212-325-3108 others weren’t so fortunate.
[email protected] 投资（以及人生）中一个令人着迷的话题，是人类为何会做出那样的行为。在那次让我额头冒汗的擦鞋经历几个月后，我读到了罗伯特·西奥迪尼的《影响力：说服心理学》，这本书为这个问题提供了许多答案。
[email protected] A topic that is fascinating in investing (and in life) is why humans act the way they do. A few Kristen Bartholdson months after my sweat-on-the-brow-inducing shine, I read Robert Cialdini’s Influence: The 212-325-2788 Psychology of Persuasion, a book that provides many of the answers to this question. [email protected] Cialdini’s work over the past three decades has concentrated on what induces a specific form of behavior change: compliance with a request. Cialdini argues that six tendencies of human 3 behavior spur a positive response to a request. All these tendencies are important to understand for life, and a few of them are particularly important for investors.
克里斯滕·巴索尔森 212-325-2788
As I read Cialdini I realized that the shoe store was preying on an essential rule of human conduct—the code of reciprocity. If someone gives you something, you feel that you must give something in return. If you want to use this innate tendency to your advantage, you give something small and ask for something large in return. A two-dollar shoeshine for two-hundred-dollar wing tips is a good trade.
[email protected] 西奥迪尼过去三十年来的研究，集中于什么会诱发一种特定形式的行为改变：对别人请求的顺从。西奥迪尼认为，人类有六种心理倾向会促使我们对请求做出积极回应。这些倾向对于人生都至关重要，其中的几种对投资者尤其重要。
We will take a brief look at each of the six tendencies, discuss how party sellers use them, and highlight the three tendencies most important for investors.
在阅读西奥迪尼时，我意识到那家鞋店利用了一条基本的人类行为准则——互惠原则。如果有人给了你东西，你就会觉得必须回报。如果你想利用这种先天倾向为自己谋利，你就可以先给别人一点小东西，然后要求对方回报以更大的东西。一次两美元的擦鞋换来一双两百美元的翼尖皮鞋，这是一笔好交易。
You Can Fool Mother Nature Here are the six tendencies—reciprocation, consistency, social validation, liking, authority, and scarcity— along with brief descriptions. While Cialdini does not strongly stress the point, we believe these tendencies are deeply rooted in evolutionary psychology. Each behavior likely contributed to the reproductive success of our forebears.
我们将简要审视这六种倾向，讨论派对销售员如何利用它们，并重点指出对投资者最重要的三种倾向。
• Reciprocation. We’ve already encountered reciprocity. Research shows that there is no human 4 society that does not feel the obligation to reciprocate. Companies make ample use of this tendency, from charitable organizations sending free address labels to real estate firms offering free house appraisals.
你骗得了大自然 以下是这六种倾向——互惠、一致性、社会认同、喜好、权威和稀缺性——附带简要说明。虽然西奥迪尼没有特别强调这一点，但我们认为这些倾向深深植根于进化心理学。每种行为很可能都对我们祖先的繁殖成功有所贡献。
• Commitment and consistency. Once we have made a decision, and especially if we’ve validated that decision through public affirmation, we’re loath to change our view. Cialdini offers two deep-seated reasons for this. First, consistency allows us to stop thinking about the issue—it gives us a mental break. And second, consistency allows us to avoid the consequence of reason—namely, that we have to change. The first allows us to avoid thinking; the second allows us to avoid acting. • 5 Social validation. One of the main ways we make decisions is by observing the decisions of others. In a famous illustration of this point, psychologist Solomon Asch put a group of eight subjects in a room and showed them a series of slides with vertical lines of various lengths. He asked the group to identify which line on the right matched the length of the one on the left. (See Exhibit 1.) The answer was obvious, but Asch instructed every member of the group, save one, to give the same, wrong answer.
• 互惠。我们已经碰到了互惠。研究表明，没有任何人类社会是不感到有回报义务的。公司们充分利用这种倾向，从慈善机构寄送免费地址标签到房地产公司提供免费房屋评估。
The subjects, bright college students, were clearly confused and one-third of them went with the majority view even though it was obviously incorrect. While extreme, Asch’s experiment shows how 6 we all rely to some degree on what others do.
• 承诺与一致性。一旦我们做出了一个决定，尤其是当我们通过公开表态确认了这个决定之后，我们就极不情愿改变自己的观点。西奥迪尼为此提供了两个深层次原因。第一，一致性让我们可以不再思考这个问题——它给了我们一个心智上的休息。第二，一致性让我们避免了理性的后果——也就是说，我们必须改变。前者让我们避免思考，后者让我们避免行动。
Exhibit 1: The Asch Experiment
• 社会认同。我们做决定的主要方式之一，是观察他人的决定。心理学家所罗门·阿施做了一个著名的实验来说明这一点：他把一组八名受试者带入一个房间，向他们展示一系列画有不同长度垂直线的幻灯片。他要求小组识别出右侧的哪条线与左侧线的长度匹配。（见图表 1。）答案显而易见，但阿施指示小组中的其他七名成员，除了一个人之外，全部给出同样的错误答案。
A B C Source: Duncan J. Watts, Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003), 207.
受试者——聪明的大学生——明显感到困惑，其中三分之一的人选择了与多数人相同的观点，尽管那显然是错误的。虽然极端，但阿施的实验表明，我们在多大程度上会依赖他人的行为。
• Liking. We all prefer to say yes to people we like. We tend to like people who are similar to us, who compliment us, cooperate with us, and who are attractive.
图表 1：阿施实验
• Authority. In one of the most enlightening and unsettling human experiments ever, social psychologist Stanley Milgram (of six degrees of separation fame) had subjects come in and play the role of “teacher” for a “learner.” The subjects asked the learner questions, and were told by a stern, lab-coated supervisor to administer progressively stronger electric shocks in return for incorrect answers. The learners would scream in pain and beg for mercy to avoid the increasingly painful shocks. Even though they were never forced to do anything, nor were they subject to reprisal, many of the subjects ended up doling out lethal shocks.
A B C
The learners in this experiment were actors and the shocks fake, but Milgram’s findings were real and chilling: People obey authority figures against their better judgment. Here again, the behavior generally makes sense—authorities often know more than others about their field—but such 7 obedience can lead to inappropriate responses.
来源：邓肯·J·瓦茨，《六度：互联时代的科学》（纽约：W.W. 诺顿公司，2003 年），第 207 页。
• Scarcity. Evidence shows humans find items and information more attractive if they are either scarce, or perceived to be scarce. Companies routinely leverage this tendency by offering products or services for a limited time only.
• 喜好。我们都更愿意对我们喜欢的人说是。我们倾向于喜欢那些与我们相似的人、赞美我们的人、与我们合作的人，以及有吸引力的人。
These tendencies are singularly powerful. But when they are invoked in combinations, they are even more potent and create what Charlie Munger calls lollapalooza effects. (Yes, lollapalooza is in the dictionary.)
• 权威。社会心理学家斯坦利·米尔格拉姆（因六度分隔理论而闻名）做了一个有史以来最具启发性也最令人不安的人类实验。他让受试者进来扮演“老师”的角色，面对一名“学生”。受试者向学生提问，并被一名严厉、身穿白大褂的主管告知，对于错误答案要施加逐渐增强的电击。学生们会痛苦尖叫，哀求怜悯，以躲避越来越痛的电击。即使受试者从未被强迫做任何事，也不会遭到报复，但许多人最终仍然施加了致命电击。
All I Really Need to Know . . .
这个实验中的学生是演员，电击是假的，但米尔格拉姆的发现是真实而令人不寒而栗的：人们会违背自己的最佳判断去服从权威人物。在这里，这种行为通常是有道理的——权威人物往往比其他人更了解自己的领域——但这种服从可能导致不恰当的反应。
The seemingly innocuous Tupperware party, which according to The New York Times is “back with a 8 vengeance” in the affluent suburbs of New York City, captures such lollapalooza effects. The Tupperware party takes advantage of four of the six tendencies. This is big business: Tupperware generates annual sales of about $1 billion from its in-home “consultants.”
• 稀缺性。证据表明，如果物品或信息是稀缺的，或者被认为稀缺，人类会觉得它们更有吸引力。公司们经常通过限时提供产品或服务来利用这种倾向。
First is reciprocity. Early in the party, there is a quiz game that allows participants to win play money that they can “spend” on giveaway items. Each participant is also encouraged to share with the group the uses of products she has already purchased—evidence of commitment. Once the buying starts, each transaction demonstrates that others want the product, providing social validation.
这些倾向单独来看已经非常强大。但当它们被组合触发时，威力更加强大，并且会产生查理·芒格所说的“合奏效应”。（没错，“lollapalooza”这个词在词典里。）
But perhaps the single most important facet of the Tupperware formula is the tendency to say yes to people you like. The purchase request comes not from a stranger, but rather a friend. Indeed the Tupperware handbook counsels the salespeople to use the “feel, felt, found” method, effectively encouraging similarity through empathy while still highlighting product features.
一切需要知道的事……
Combine these effects, and it’s not hard to see why many people try to avoid going to a Tupperware party in the first place, because they know that once they are there, they will buy something. For example, the Times reported that one attendee spent “far more than she had planned,” no doubt swept up by the lollapalooza effect.
看似无害的特百惠派对，据《纽约时报》报道，在纽约市富裕的郊区“卷土重来”，它完美地捕捉了这种合奏效应。特百惠派对利用了六种倾向中的四种。这是门大生意：特百惠通过其家庭“顾问”每年创造约 10 亿美元的销售额。
The Psychology of Investing Investors need to pay a great deal of attention to what influences their behavior. Three of Cialdini’s six tendencies are particularly relevant for investors: consistency and commitment, social validation, and scarcity.
首先是互惠。派对一开始，会有一个问答游戏，让参与者赢得可以“花”在赠品上的游戏币。每名参与者还被鼓励与大家分享她已购买过的产品的使用心得——这是承诺的证据。一旦购买开始，每笔交易都表明其他人想要这个产品，提供了社会认同。
Psychologists discovered that after bettors at a racetrack put down their money, they are more confident in 9 the prospects of their horses winning than immediately before they placed their bets. After making a decision, we feel pressure (both internal and external) to remain consistent to that view, even if subsequent evidence questions the validity of the initial decision.
但特百惠模式中最重要的一个方面，或许是对你喜欢的人说不的倾向。购买请求并非来自陌生人，而是来自朋友。特百惠手册确实建议销售人员使用“感受、感觉、发现”的方法，在突出产品特性的同时，通过共情有效地促进相似感。
So an investor that has taken a position in a particular stock, recommended it publicly, or encouraged colleagues to participate, will feel the need to stick with the call. Related to this tendency is the confirmation trap, post-decision openness to confirming data coupled with disavowal or denial of disconfirming data. One useful technique to mitigate consistency is to think about the world in ranges of values with associated probabilities versus single points. Acknowledging multiple scenarios provides psychological shelter to change views when appropriate.
把这些效应结合起来，就不难理解为什么很多人一开始就试图避免参加特百惠派对，因为他们知道，一旦去了，就会买点什么。例如，《纽约时报》报道说，一位参加者“花的钱远远超出了她的计划”，毫无疑问是被合奏效应冲昏了头脑。
A large body of work about the role of social validation in investing exists. Investing is an inherently social activity, and investors periodically act in concert. Awareness of breakdowns in the diversity of opinion and respect for extreme valuations can help offset the deleterious impact of social validation.
投资心理学 投资者需要高度关注是什么在影响他们的行为。西奥迪尼六种倾向中的三种与投资者尤其相关：一致性和承诺、社会认同、以及稀缺性。
Finally, scarcity has an important role in investing (and certainly plays a large role in the minds of corporate executives). Investors in particular seek informational scarcity. The challenge is to distinguish between what is truly scarce information and what is not. One means to do this is to reverse-engineer market expectations—in other words, figure out what the market already thinks.
心理学家发现，赌马者在赛马场下注之后，比下注之前对自己所选马匹获胜的前景更有信心。在做出决定之后，我们会感到压力（来自内部和外部）去保持与该观点一致，即使后续证据对最初决定的正确性提出质疑。
____________________________ 1 Robert B. Cialdini, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion (New York: William Morrow, 1993), 167. 2 Whitney Tilson, “Charlie Munger Speaks—Part 2: Notes from the Wesco Annual Meeting,” The Motley Fool, May 15, 2000. See http://www.fool.com/boringport/2000/boringport00051500.htm.
因此，一个投资者如果持有某只股票的头寸，公开推荐过它，或者鼓励过同事参与，就会感到有必要坚持这个判断。与这种倾向相关的是确认陷阱，即决策后对佐证数据的开放态度，以及对证伪数据的否定或否认。一种缓解一致性的有用技巧，是用概率关联的价值区间来思考世界，而不是用单一数值。承认多种情景，可以在适当的时候为改变观点提供心理庇护。
3 Robert B. Cialdini, “The Science of Persuasion,” Scientific American, February 2001, 76-81. 4 Cialdini, Influence, 18.
关于社会认同在投资中的作用，已有大量研究。投资本质上是一种社会性活动，投资者会定期采取一致行动。对意见多样性崩溃的警觉，以及对极端估值的尊重，有助于抵消社会认同的有害影响。
5 Michael J. Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Guppy Love: The Role of Imitation in Markets,” The Consilient Observer, May 21, 2002.
最后，稀缺性在投资中扮演着重要角色（当然，在企业管理层的头脑中也发挥着很大作用）。投资者尤其追求信息稀缺性。挑战在于区分什么是真正稀缺的信息，什么不是。做到这一点的方法之一是反向工程市场预期——换句话说，搞清楚市场已经知道了什么。
6 For an interesting account of Asch’s experiment, see Duncan J. Watts, Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003), 207-210.
1 罗伯特·B·西奥迪尼，《影响力：说服心理学》（纽约：威廉·莫罗出版社，1993 年），第 167 页。
2 惠特尼·蒂尔森，“查理·芒格讲话——第二部分：西科金融年会笔记”，《傻瓜投资指南》，2000 年 5 月 15 日。见 http://www.fool.com/boringport/2000/boringport00051500.htm。
3 罗伯特·B·西奥迪尼，“说服的科学”，《科学美国人》，2001 年 2 月，第 76-81 页。
4 西奥迪尼，《影响力》，第 18 页。
5 迈克尔·J·莫布森和克里斯滕·巴索尔森，“古比之爱：模仿在市场中的作用”，《和谐观察者》，2002 年 5 月 21 日。
6 关于阿施实验的有趣描述，见邓肯·J·瓦茨，《六度：互联时代的科学》（纽约：W.W. 诺顿公司，2003 年），第 207-210 页。
7 西奥迪尼，第 208-215 页。另见 http://www.milgramreenactment.org/pages/section.xml?location=1。
8 丽莎·W·福德拉罗，“如果琼·克利弗加入了‘欲望都市’：特百惠派对进入《时尚》杂志读者群”，《纽约时报》，2003 年 2 月 1 日。
7 Cialdini, 208-215. Also see http://www.milgramreenactment.org/pages/section.xml?location=1. 8 Lisa W. Foderaro, “If June Cleaver Joined ‘Sex and the City’: Tupperware Parties for the Cosmo Set,” The New York Times, February 1, 2003.
9 Cialdini, 37.
9 Cialdini, 37.
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本报告中提供的信息、工具和材料仅供您参考，不得视为或用作出售或购买或认购证券或其他金融工具的要约或要约邀请。CSFB 可能未采取任何措施确保本报告中提及的证券适合任何特定投资者。CSFB 不会因接收方收到本报告而将其视为客户。本报告中包含或提及的投资或服务可能不适合您，建议您在对此类投资或投资服务有疑问时咨询独立投资顾问。本报告中的任何内容均不构成投资、法律、会计或税务建议，也不表示任何投资或策略适合您的个人情况或以其他方式构成对您的个人推荐。CSFB 不就投资的税务后果提供建议，建议您联系独立税务顾问。请特别注意，税基和税率可能会发生变化。
The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. CSFB may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. CSFB will not treat recipients as its customers by virtue of their receiving the report. The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. CSFB does not offer advice on the tax consequences of investment and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note in particular that the bases and levels of taxation may change.
本报告中呈现的信息和意见来自 CSFB 认为可靠的来源，但 CSFB 不对其准确性或完整性作任何陈述。可应要求提供额外信息。CSFB 不承担因使用本报告材料而产生的任何损失责任，但此责任排除不适用于根据特定法规或适用于 CSFB 的法律产生责任的情况。本报告不应替代独立判断。CSFB 可能已发布，并可能在未来发布其他与本报告信息不一致且得出不同结论的报告。这些报告反映了编写报告的分析师的不同假设、观点和分析方法，CSFB 无义务确保此类其他报告被本报告的任何接收方知晓。CSFB 及其关联公司涉及许多可能与报告中提及的公司相关的业务。这些业务包括专业交易、风险套利、做市及其他自营交易。CSFB 可在法律允许的范围内，在材料发布之前根据或使用本报告中的信息或意见，或其依据的研究或分析。
Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by CSFB to be reliable, but CSFB makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Additional information is available upon request. CSFB accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to CSFB. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. CSFB may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and CSFB is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. CSFB and its affiliate companies are involved in many businesses that may relate to companies mentioned in this report. These businesses include specialized trading, risk arbitrage, market making, and other proprietary trading. CSFB may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published.
过往业绩不应被视为未来业绩的指示或保证，并且不对未来业绩作出任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证。本报告中包含的信息、意见和估计反映了 CSFB 在原发布日的判断，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本报告中提及的任何证券或金融工具的价格、价值及收益可能下跌也可能上涨。证券和金融工具的价值受汇率波动影响，可能对此类证券或金融工具的价格或收益产生积极或不利影响。投资于价值受汇率波动影响的证券（如 ADR）的投资者实质上承担了此风险。
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgement at its original date of publication by CSFB and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADR’s, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk.
结构性证券是复杂的工具，通常涉及高风险，仅面向能够理解并承担相关风险的成熟投资者销售。任何结构性证券的市场价值可能受到经济、金融和政治因素（包括但不限于即期和远期利率及汇率）、到期时间、市场条件和波动性以及任何发行人或参考发行人的信用质量变化的影响。任何有意购买结构性产品的投资者应自行对该产品进行调查和分析，并咨询其专业顾问有关进行此类购买所涉及的风险。
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct their own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
本报告中讨论的一些投资具有高波动性。高波动性投资可能会经历价值的突然大幅下跌，在实现该投资时造成损失。这些损失可能等于您的初始投资。实际上，对于某些投资，潜在损失可能超过初始投资金额，在这种情况下，您可能需要支付更多资金来弥补这些损失。来自投资的收入收益可能会波动，因此，用于进行投资的初始资本可能被用作该收入收益的一部分。某些投资可能不易变现，并且可能难以出售或变现这些投资，同样，您可能难以获得有关此类投资所面临价值或风险的可靠信息。
Some investments discussed in this report have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is realised. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment, in such circumstances you may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part of that income yield. Some investments may not be readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realise those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.
本报告可能提供网站的地址或包含超链接。除非本报告引用了 CSFB 自己的网站材料，CSFB 未审查链接网站，并且对其内容不承担任何责任。此类地址或超链接（包括指向 CSFB 自己网站材料的地址或超链接）仅供您方便和信息参考，链接网站的内容绝不构成本文件的组成部分。通过本报告或 CSFB 网站访问此类网站或跟随此类链接的风险由您自行承担。
This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to CSFB’s own website material, CSFB has not reviewed the linked site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to CSFB’s own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this report or CSFB’s website shall be at your own risk.
本报告由 Credit Suisse First Boston (Europe) Limited（地址：One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, England）在欧洲（瑞士除外）发行和分发，该公司在英国受金融服务管理局（“FSA”）监管。本报告在美国由 Credit Suisse First Boston LLC 分发；在瑞士由 Credit Suisse First Boston 分发；在加拿大由 Credit Suisse First Boston Canada Inc. 分发；在巴西由 Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse Boston S.A. 分发；在日本由 Credit Suisse First Boston Securities (Japan) Limited 分发；在亚洲/太平洋其他地区由以下在相关司法管辖区获得适当授权的实体分发：Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong) Limited、Credit Suisse First Boston Australia Equities Limited、Credit Suisse First Boston (Thailand) Limited、CSFB Research (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd、Credit Suisse First Boston Singapore Branch，以及在世界其他地方由上述实体的相关授权关联公司分发。由 Credit Suisse First Boston, Taipei Branch 制作的关于台湾证券的研究报告已由注册高级业务人员准备和/或审阅。
This report is issued and distributed in Europe (except Switzerland) by Credit Suisse First Boston (Europe) Limited, One Cabot Square, London E14 4QJ, England, which is regulated in the United Kingdom by The Financial Services Authority (“FSA”). This report is being distributed in the United States by Credit Suisse First Boston LLC; in Switzerland by Credit Suisse First Boston; in Canada by Credit Suisse First Boston Canada Inc.; in Brazil by Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse Boston S.A.; in Japan by Credit Suisse First Boston Securities (Japan) Limited; elsewhere in Asia/Pacific by whichever of the following is the appropriately authorised entity in the relevant jurisdiction: Credit Suisse First Boston (Hong Kong) Limited, Credit Suisse First Boston Australia Equities Limited, Credit Suisse First Boston (Thailand) Limited, CSFB Research (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, Credit Suisse First Boston Singapore Branch and elsewhere in the world by the relevant authorised affiliate of the above. Research on Taiwanese securities produced by Credit Suisse First Boston, Taipei Branch has been prepared and/or reviewed by a registered Senior Business Person.
在 CSFB 尚未注册或许可进行证券交易的司法管辖区，交易将仅根据适用的证券法规进行，该法规因司法管辖区而异，并可能要求交易根据注册或许可要求的适用豁免进行。除非适用法律另有规定，非美国客户如欲进行交易，应联系当地司法管辖区的 CSFB 实体。美国客户如欲进行交易，应仅通过联系美国的 Credit Suisse First Boston LLC 代表进行。
In jurisdictions where CSFB is not already registered or licensed to trade in securities, transactions will only be effected in accordance with applicable securities legislation, which will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. Non-U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction should contact a CSFB entity in their local jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Credit Suisse First Boston LLC in the U.S.
请注意，本报告最初由 CSFB 准备和发布，用于分发其市场专业和机构投资者客户。
Please note that this report was originally prepared and issued by CSFB for distribution to their market professional and institutional investor customers.
非 CSFB 市场专业或机构投资者客户的接收方，在根据本报告做出任何投资决定或需要对其内容进行任何解释之前，应寻求其独立财务顾问的建议。本研究可能涉及英国境外人士的投资或服务，或涉及 FSA 未监管的其他事项，或有关 FSA 对私人客户和/或英国补偿计划的保护可能不适用的事项，可应要求获取本报告中此类情况的更多详细信息。
Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor customers of CSFB should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents. This research may relate to investments or services of a person outside of the UK or to other matters which are not regulated by the FSA or in respect of which the protections of the FSA for private customers and/or the UK compensation scheme may not be available, and further details as to where this may be the case are available upon request in respect of this report.
版权所有瑞士信贷第一波士顿银行及其子公司和关联公司，2003 年。保留所有权利。
Copyright Credit Suisse First Boston, and its subsidiaries and affiliates, 2003. All rights reserved.
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