财富转移：通过资本配置实现价值再分配
Counterpoint Global Insights
Counterpoint Global Insights
Wealth Transfers
Wealth Transfers
通过资本配置实现价值的再分配
Redistribution of Value via Capital Allocation
CONSILIENT OBSERVER | 2022 年 5 月 10 日
CONSILIENT OBSERVER | May 10, 2022
引言 资本主义的核心是私人拥有生产资料以追求经济利润。一家公司赚取超过资本机会成本的投资回报时，便创造了正的经济利润。
Introduction The core of capitalism is the private ownership of the means of production in the pursuit of economic profit. A company generates a positive economic profit when it earns a return on investment in excess of the opportunity cost of capital.
竞争是资本主义的一个特征。一家赚取可观经济利润的公司，会吸引竞争对手试图通过以更低成本销售类似商品或服务，或提供有吸引力的替代品来夺取这份利润。
Competition is a feature of capitalism. A company earning a handsome economic profit will attract competitors that seek to wrest that profit away either by selling similar goods or services at a lower cost or by providing attractive substitute offerings.
生产性投资是资本主义的引擎。企业将资金投入有形或无形资产，期望未来的现金流（折现到当前）能超过初始支出。成功的投资之所以创造财富，是因为 1 美元的投资能产生超过 1 美元的价值。
Productive investment is the engine of capitalism. Companies spend on tangible or intangible assets with the expectation that future cash flows, discounted to the present, will be worth more than the outlay. Successful investment creates wealth because one dollar of investment is worth more than one dollar in value.
债权人及股权持有人为投资提供资本。债权人对现金流享有优先求偿权，因此其风险与预期回报均低于股权持有人。股权持有人对现金流拥有剩余求偿权，因而承担更高风险，也获得更高潜在回报。公司一旦正常运营，投资资本的主要来源往往为内部产生的现金。
Creditors and equity holders provide the capital to invest. Creditors have a senior claim on cash flows and hence have lower risk and expected return than equity holders. Equity holders have a residual claim on cash flows, so they have higher risk and potential reward. Once a company is up and running, the primary source of investment capital tends to be cash that is generated internally.
自 1980 年以来，美国国内投资所需资本中超过 90% 来自内部融资。¹这些资金可以来自留存收益，也可以来自供应商等其他利益相关方。²资本配置可以说是一个管理团队最重要的任务。资本配置的目标，是将资源投入到最好、效用最高的用途上，从而为现有股东创造每股长期价值。你可以把资本配置分为两部分。一部分是对业务进行投资，包括资本支出、无形资产以及并购等大家熟悉的形式。
Since 1980, internal financing has supplied more than 90 percent of the capital for investment in the U.S. 1 This can come from retained earnings or other stakeholders, including suppliers. 2 Capital allocation is arguably a management team’s most important task. The goal of capital allocation is to put resources to their best and highest use so as to create long-term value per share for ongoing shareholders. You can think of capital allocation in two parts. One is investing in the business, which includes familiar forms such as capital expenditures, intangible assets, and mergers and acquisitions.
第二种则是交易那些价格基于公司价值的证券，包括买卖一家公司的债券和股权。这为创造财富打开了可能性之门。
The other is transacting with securities that have prices that are based on corporate value, including buying and selling the debt and equity of a company. This introduces the potential for a wealth
迈克尔·莫布森 （[email protected]）
丹·卡拉汉，特许金融分析师 （[email protected]）
Michael J. Mauboussin [email protected] Dan Callahan, CFA [email protected]
转移，即一个利益相关者以牺牲另一个利益相关者为代价而获益。
transfer, where one stakeholder benefits at the expense of another.
Wealth Transfers
Wealth Transfers
当一家公司买入或卖出定价错误的证券时，财富转移就发生了。3 我们聚焦于权益类证券。其直觉很简单，说白了就是“低买高卖”。关键在于高管们能否分辨价格与价值的区别。理论上，他们应该掌握投资者所没有的、关于公司前景的信息。这就提供了启动财富转移的机会。
A wealth transfer occurs when a company buys or sells a mispriced security.3 We focus on equity. The intuition is straightforward and amounts to little more than “buy low and sell high.” The essential issue is whether executives can discern between price and value. In theory, they should have information about the prospects for their companies that investors lack. This can provide an opportunity to initiate a wealth transfer.
关于这一主题的实证研究得出几个结论。首先，公司确实能够把握买卖股票的时机，从而让现有股东受益。其次，高价卖出股票带来的财富转移效应，通常大于折价买入股票。第三，在与公司进行交易时，机构投资者总体上比个人投资者更具判断力。
The empirical research on the topic comes to a few conclusions. First, companies can indeed time the sale and purchase of equity so as to benefit ongoing shareholders. 4 Second, wealth transfers tend to be larger for sales of overpriced equity than they are for purchases of undervalued equity.5 Third, institutional investors are generally more discerning than individual investors when transacting with a company.6
理查德·斯隆和尤海峰两位会计学教授研究发现，在交易发生五年后衡量，买卖股票的公司将交易前市值的 1% 到 2% 从交易股东转移给了持续持股的股东。
Richard Sloan and Haifeng You, professors of accounting, find that companies buying and selling equity transfer one to two percent of the pre-deal market value from the transacting shareholders to the ongoing shareholders, measured five years after the event.7
这些资金转移的一个重要含义是：一只股票的美元加权平均回报可能低于其时间加权回报。股东总回报通常使用时间加权回报来报告。这一概念与以下观察有关：共同基金投资者通常因时机选择不当而获得比其所投资基金更低的回报。例如，截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的 10 年间，美国股票型共同基金的美元加权回报比其时间加权回报低了 117 个基点。
An important implication of these transfers is that a stock’s dollar-weighted average return can be less than its time-weighted return. Total shareholder returns are generally reported using time-weighted returns. This concept is related to the observation that mutual fund investors generally earn lower returns than the funds in which they invest because of poor timing. For example, the dollar-weighted returns were 117 basis points lower than time-weighted returns for U.S. equity mutual funds for the 10 years ended December 31, 2020. 8
会计学教授伊利亚·迪切夫（Ilia Dichev）举了一个例子来把这个问题说清楚（我们对他所举的数字稍作改动）：某公司最初持有 1000 股股票，每股交易价格 100 美元。随后股价翻倍至 200 美元，公司卖出 1000 股。最后，股价回到 100 美元。
Ilia Dichev, a professor of accounting, provides an example to make the point clear (we modify his numbers modestly).9 A company starts with 1,000 shares of a stock that trades at $100 a share. The stock then doubles to $200 and the company sells 1,000 shares. Finally, the stock returns to $100.
很明显，首批股东的投资收益为零，新股东则亏损 50%。事实上，在这种情景下，用内部收益率（IRR）衡量的美元加权回报率为 -26.8%。但时间加权回报率为零，因为股价最终回到了起点。
It is obvious that the initial shareholders are flat on their investment and the new shareholders are down 50 percent. In fact, in this scenario the dollar-weighted return is -26.8 percent, measured using internal rate of return (IRR). But the time-weighted return is zero because the stock ended where it began.
这一分析基于价格变动，而价格变动正是投资者最终关心的核心。财富转移依赖股票被错误定价，即假设价格与内在价值存在偏差。当我们引入价值概念时，可以发现卖出被高估的股票、回购被低估的股票，能够提升公司每股价值。
This analysis is based on price change, which is what investors ultimately care about. Wealth transfers rely on a stock being mispriced, which presumes that price differs from intrinsic value. When we introduce value, we can observe that selling overvalued stock and buying back undervalued stock add to firm value per share.
与之对称的是，回购被高估的股票和出售被低估的股票，会降低每股企业价值（见表 1）。
Symmetrically, buying back overvalued stock and selling undervalued stock subtract from firm value per share (see exhibit 1).
附件一：通过股权交易实现的财富转移
Exhibit 1: Wealth Transfers Via Equity Transactions
股价被低估还是被高估
Stock Price Undervalued Overvalued
• 买方获利 • 买方亏损 卖方
• Buyers gain • Buyers lose Sells
• 持续持有的股东受损 • 持续持有的股东受益
• Ongoing holders lose • Ongoing holders gain
Company
Company
• 卖方亏损 • 卖方获利 买入
• Sellers lose • Sellers gain Buys
• 持续持有者获益 • 持续持有者受损
• Ongoing holders gain • Ongoing holders lose
来源：Counterpoint Global。
Source: Counterpoint Global.
让我们回到例子。假设公司一开始的内在价值是 10 万美元，价格精确反映了这一价值（100 美元/股 × 1000 股流通股 = 10 万美元）。股价涨到 200 美元，公司新发行了 1000 股。公司的新价值变成 30 万美元（30 万美元 = 10 万美元 + 20 万美元发行收入），每股价值从 100 美元上升到 150 美元（150 美元 = 30 万美元 ÷ 2000 股流通股）。财富从买入股东转移到了老股东手中——如果股价跌回 150 美元、与新的每股价值一致，这一点就变得一目了然。买入股东每股亏 50 美元，而老股东每股赚 50 美元。注意，价格回归到了更高的价值。
Let’s return to our example. Say the intrinsic value of the firm at the outset is $100,000 and that the price accurately reflects that value ($100 per share x 1,000 shares outstanding = $100,000). The stock rises to $200, and the firm sells 1,000 shares. The new value of the firm is $300,000 ($300,000 = $100,000 + $200,000 in proceeds) and the value per share rises from $100 to $150 per share ($150 = $300,000 ÷ 2,000 shares outstanding). The wealth transfer is from the buying shareholders to ongoing holders, which becomes clear if the stock price declines to $150 and matches its new value per share. Buying shareholders lose $50 per share while the ongoing holders gain $50. Note that the price regresses to a higher value.
我们可以从同样的内在价值和价格出发，看看如果公司回购被低估的股票会发生什么。现在假设股价从 100 美元跌至 50 美元，公司回购了 500 股。
We can start with the same intrinsic value and price and see what happens if the company buys back undervalued stock. Now assume the stock drops from $100 to $50 and the company repurchases 500 shares.
公司的价值下降至 7.5 万美元（7.5 万美元 = 10 万美元 - 2.5 万美元回购成本），但每股价值上升至 150 美元（150 美元 = 7.5 万美元 ÷ 500 股流通股）。如果回购价格与新的价值匹配，财富就从卖出股东转移至持续持股的股东。卖出股东每股损失 50 美元，而持续持股股东每股获得 50 美元。
The value of the firm decreases to $75,000 ($75,000 = $100,000 - $25,000 repurchase cost) but the value per share increases to $150 per share ($150 = $75,000 ÷ 500 shares outstanding). The wealth transfer is from the selling shareholders to the ongoing holders if price and the new value align. Selling shareholders lose $50 per share and ongoing holders gain $50.
一家出售被高估股票的公司，会为继续持有的股东增加每股价值。但值得注意，这些股东如果随公司一同卖出股票，日子会过得更好。一家回购被低估股票的公司，同样会提升每股价值。但在这种情况下，持续持股的股东什么都不做，处境反而会改善。
A company that sells overvalued stock increases the value per share for the ongoing holders. But it should be noted that those holders would be better off selling alongside the firm. A company that buys undervalued stock also augments value per share. But in this case, ongoing shareholders improve their situation by doing nothing.
这一分析适用于那些通过社交媒体获得关注、主要吸引散户投资者的股票。这类股票被通俗地称为“表情包股票”，因为买入它们的个体通常会对互联网上产生并传播的观点做出反应。10 想想看，在表情包股票风头最劲的时候，个人投资者对美股和交易所交易基金的日均净买入量，大约是在主要在线券商转向零佣金之前的 2019 年水平的 10 倍。11
This analysis is relevant for stocks that gain attention through social media and appeal primarily to retail investors. These are colloquially called “meme stocks” because the individuals who buy them commonly react to ideas developed and spread on the Internet.10 Consider that the net daily purchases of U.S equities and exchange-traded funds by individuals at the height of popularity for meme stocks was roughly 10 times the level of purchases in 2019 before major online brokerage firms moved to zero commissions.11
这些股票的大幅价格变动表明存在错误定价。股价飙升为企业行动提供了财富转移的机会。
The large price changes of these stocks suggest mispricing. These stock price spikes present an opportunity for a wealth transfer via corporate action.
我们在例子中特意设定了价值数值，以便说明这一要点。但在现实中，确定内在价值要困难得多。为简化分析，我们采用覆盖某只股票的卖方分析师平均目标价作为内在价值的替代指标。众所周知，目标价并不十分准确，而且往往偏于乐观。这意味着实际成交价格往往低于目标价。¹² 财富转移的数学原理依然成立，但如果目标价高于内在价值，其影响幅度就会减弱。
We designated value in our example so as to illustrate the point. But in reality, determining intrinsic value is much more difficult. To simplify our analysis, we use the average target price of the sell-side analysts who cover a stock as a proxy for intrinsic value. As is generally known, target prices are not very accurate and tend to be optimistic. This means that realized prices tend to fall short of the target.12 The math of wealth transfers still works, but the magnitude of the effect is muted if the target price is higher than the intrinsic value.
近期电子游戏和消费电子产品零售商 GameStop 的案例，就是一次以远超分析师目标价所隐含价值的价格执行的股权发行。2021 年 4 月 9 日，GameStop 流通股为 6530 万股，收盘价为每股 158.36 美元。在 6 月 9 日至 6 月 22 日期间，GameStop 以平均每股 225.20 美元的价格出售了 500 万股。在出售期间，分析师的平均目标价为 65.48 美元。
The recent case of GameStop, a retailer of video games and consumer electronics, is an example of equity issuance executed at a price that substantially exceeded value as implied by the target price of analysts. On April 9, 2021, GameStop had 65.3 million shares outstanding and the stock closed at $158.36. Between June 9 and June 22, GameStop sold 5 million shares at an average price of $225.20 per share. During the time of the sale, the average target price was $65.48.
内在价值从每股 65.48 美元增长到 76.84 美元，涨幅超过 17%。13 2021 年 8 月 11 日，股票收盘价为 158.78 美元。从发行前约两个月到发行后两个月来衡量股价回报率，内部收益率为 -1.4%，但时间加权收益率为 0.3%。
The intrinsic value increased from $65.48 to $76.84 per share, a gain of more than 17 percent, as a result of the issuance.13 On August 11, 2021, the stock closed at $158.78. Measuring stock price returns from roughly two months before the issuance to two months after reveals an IRR of -1.4 percent but a time-weighted gain of 0.3 percent.
此次交易的另一个值得关注的方面是，公司资产负债表增加了超过 11 亿美元。这带来了资本配置的机遇和风险。如果这些资本被投入到运营中，并且获得超过资本成本的回报，就会创造额外的财富。但低于资本成本的投资，则会拖累运营的价值。14
Another noteworthy aspect of the transaction is that the company added more than $1.1 billion to its balance sheet. This introduces a capital allocation opportunity and risk. The capital creates additional wealth if it is deployed into the operations and earns a return in excess of the cost of capital. But an investment below the cost of capital is a drag on the value of the operations.14
AMC 娱乐控股公司（AMC Entertainment Holdings）是一家连锁影院，其股票也属于所谓的“网红股”。该公司以类似的方式出售股票。事实上，它的操作对内在价值的影响比游戏驿站（GameStop）还要大。AMC 选择将部分现金投入一家金矿公司——海克罗夫特矿业（Hycroft Mining），从而偏离了其核心业务。15
AMC Entertainment Holdings, a movie theater chain, is another company with equity that qualified as a meme stock. The company sold stock in a similar fashion. Indeed, its actions had an even larger impact on intrinsic value than was the case for GameStop. AMC chose to deploy some of its cash into a gold mine company, Hycroft Mining, hence diversifying away from its core operations.15
Conclusion
Conclusion
企业影响财富的方式有两种。其一，它们可以对自身业务进行投资，所获回报超过资本成本。这种行为对资本提供者有利。但维持高于资本成本的回报率颇具挑战性，原因在于竞争以及各类商品或服务市场难以避免的成熟化进程。
Companies can affect wealth in a couple of ways. First, they can make investments in their operations that earn in excess of the cost of capital. This activity benefits capital providers. But sustaining returns above the cost of capital is challenging because of competition and the inevitable maturation of various markets for goods or services.
公司也可以通过买卖定价错误的股票来实现财富转移。证据表明，从整体上看，公司确实是在高位卖出、低位买入，这意味着交易股东的表现不如长期持有股东。
Companies can also transfer wealth by buying or selling mispriced stock. The evidence shows that in the aggregate companies do sell high and buy low, which means that transacting shareholders fare worse than ongoing holders.
精明的投资者会关注管理层配置资本的能力，并且往往侧重于企业在业务上的投资。这是合理的。但投资者也应该知晓管理层在自家股票上的行动所带来的影响。其核心指引在于价格与价值之间的差距。
Astute investors focus on a management’s ability to allocate capital and tend to focus on investments in the business. This is appropriate. But investors should also be aware of the impact of management actions with regard to their own stock. The essential guide is the gap between price and value.
最后，许多投资者依赖错误定价的股票随时间回归其每股价值，以此作为产生超额收益的手段。财富转移显示，管理层的行为能在企业运营基本面毫无变化的情况下，改变每股价值。
Finally, many investors count on mispriced stocks regressing toward their value per share over time as a means to generate excess returns. Wealth transfers show that actions by management can change the value per share without any change in the underlying fundamentals of the operations.
注释 1 美联储研究统计部，《资金流账户表 F.103》。见 https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20220310/z1.pdf，第 18 页。
Endnotes 1 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Flow of Funds Accounts Table F.103. See https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20220310/z1.pdf, page 18.
2 这一点可以通过分析现金转换周期来观察，该指标衡量的是将资金转化为现金所需的时间。
2 This can be seen through analysis of the cash conversion cycle, a measure of how long it takes to convert
将存货投资转化为现金。拥有负现金转换周期的公司，在向供应商付款之前，就能提前收到客户为其产品或服务支付的现金。只要业务持续增长，这种时间差就是一项现金来源。
investments in inventory into cash. Companies with a negative cash conversion cycle receive cash for the goods or services they produce before they have to pay their suppliers. This timing difference is a source of cash as long as the business grows.
3 财富转移也可以通过其他方式发生。最好的一个例子体现在委托-
3 Wealth transfers can happen by other means as well. One of the best examples is captured in the principal-
代理问题。在这种情况下，委托人是股东，代理人是企业的管理者。当代理人为自己牟利时——例如通过不必要的额外津贴——问题就出现了，这些做法将财富从委托人转移给了代理人。其他潜在但更模糊的情况包括杠杆式资本重组（公司借钱回购股票）以及分拆。
agent problem. In this case, the principal is the shareholder and the agent is the manager of the business. The problem arises when the agent enriches his or herself, for instance through unnecessary perquisites, that transfer wealth from the principal to the agent. Other potential but more ambiguous cases include leveraged recapitalizations, where companies borrow money to repurchase stock, and spinoffs.
艾米·迪特马尔和劳拉·卡萨雷斯·菲尔德合著，《管理者能否把握市场时机？来自回购价格的证据》
4 Amy Dittmar and Laura Casares Field, “Can Managers Time the Market? Evidence Using Repurchase Price
Data,” 《金融经济学杂志》，第 115 卷，第 2 期，2015 年 2 月，261-282 页；Richard G. Sloan 和 Haifeng You，“通过股权转移实现财富转移”，《金融经济学杂志》，第 118 卷，第 1 期，2015 年 10 月，93-112 页；Ilona Babenko、Yuri Tserlukevich 和 Pengcheng Wan，“市场择时对股东有利吗？”
Data,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 115, No. 2, February 2015, 261-282; Richard G. Sloan and Haifeng You, “Wealth Transfers via Equity Transfers,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 118, No. 1, October 2015, 93-112; Ilona Babenko, Yuri Tserlukevich, and Pengcheng Wan, “Is Market Timing Good for Shareholders?”
Management Science, Vol. 66, No. 8, August 2020, 3542-3560; 以及 Dinis Daniel Santos 和 Paulo Gama 合著的“Timing the Market with Own Stock: An Extensive Analysis with Buying and Selling Evidence”，载于 International Journal of Managerial Finance, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2020, 141-164。
Management Science, Vol. 66, No. 8, August 2020, 3542-3560; and Dinis Daniel Santos and Paulo Gama, “Timing the Market with Own Stock: An Extensive Analysis with Buying and Selling Evidence,” International Journal of Managerial Finance, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2020, 141-164.
5 一个相关发现是，“首次公开募股公司在上市后的三到五年内表现逊于市场。”源于
5 A related finding is that “IPO firms underperform the market for the three and five years after the IPO.” From
米歇尔·劳瑞、罗尼·迈克尔利与叶卡捷琳娜·沃尔科娃合著《首次公开发行：文献综述与未来研究方向》，载于《金融学基础与前沿》2017 年第 11 卷第 3-4 期，第 154–320 页。6 R. 贾里德·德利斯尔、贾斯汀·D. 莫尔斯切克与约翰·R. 诺夫辛格合著《股票回购与财富转移》
Michelle Lowry, Roni Michaely, and Ekaterina Volkova, “Initial Public Offerings: A Synthesis of the Literature and Directions for Future Research,” Foundations and Trends in Finance, Vol. 11, No. 3-4, 2017, 154-320. 6 R. Jared DeLisle, Justin D. Morscheck, and John R. Nofsinger, “Share Repurchases and Wealth Transfer
“股东之间”，《经济学与金融学季刊》，第 76 卷，2020 年 5 月，第 368-378 页；伦道夫·B
Among Shareholders,” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 76, May 2020, 368-378; Randolph B.
Cohen, Paul A. Gompers, 与 Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 《谁对现金流新闻反应不足？来自个人与机构间交易的证据》，《金融经济学杂志》，第 66 卷，第 2-3 期，2002 年 11-12 月，第 409-462 页；以及 John R. Nofsinger 与 Richard W. Sias, 《机构与个人投资者的羊群效应及反馈交易》，《金融学杂志》，第 54 卷，第 6 期，1999 年 12 月，第 2263-2295 页。
Cohen, Paul A. Gompers, and Tuomo Vuolteenaho, “Who Underreacts to Cash-Flow News? Evidence from Trading between Individuals and Institutions,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 66, Nos. 2-3, November-December 2002, 409-462; and John R. Nofsinger and Richard W. Sias, “Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors,” Journal of Finance , Vol. 54, No. 6, December 1999, 2263-2295. 7 Sloan and You, “Wealth Transfers via Equity Transfers” and Ulrike Malmendier, “Behavioral Corporate
“金融”，载于 B. 道格拉斯·伯恩海姆、斯特凡诺·德拉·维尼亚、戴维·莱布森编，《行为经济学手册——基础与应用》第 1 卷（阿姆斯特丹：北荷兰出版社，2018 年），第 277–380 页。
Finance,” in B. Douglas Bernheim, Stefano Della Vigna, and David Laibson, eds., Handbook of Behavioral Economics—Foundations and Applications 1 (Amsterdam: North Holland, 2018), 277-380.
艾米·C·阿诺特，《关注差距 2021：美国投资者回报报告》，晨星，8 月
8 Amy C. Arnott, “Mind the Gap 2021: A Report on Investor Returns in the United States,” Morningstar, August
31, 2021.
31, 2021.
9 伊利亚·D·迪切夫（Ilia D. Dichev），《股票投资者的实际历史回报是多少？来自美元加权回报的证据》，
9 Ilia D. Dichev, “What Are Stock Investors’ Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns,”
《美国经济评论》，第 97 卷，第 1 期，2007 年 3 月，386-401 页。
American Economic Review, Vol. 97, No. 1, March 2007, 386-401.
10 《韦氏词典》将“模因”定义为“一种理念、行为、风格或用法，从…传播开来”。
10 The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines a meme as “an idea, behavior, style, or usage that spreads from
文化背景相近的人之间，交流起来会更顺畅。
person to person within a culture.”
11 斯宾塞·贾卡布，《一场未能成行的革命：游戏驿站、Reddit 与散户投资者的羊毛被剪记》（New
11 Spencer Jakab, The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors (New
约克：投资组合/企鹅出版社，2022 年），第 139 页。
York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2022), 139.
12 Stefano Bonini, Laura Zanetti, Roberto Bianchini 和 Antonio Salvi 合著的论文《股权目标价的准确性》
12 Stefano Bonini, Laura Zanetti, Roberto Bianchini, and Antonio Salvi, “Target Price Accuracy in Equity
《研究》，载于《商业金融与会计杂志》，第 37 卷，第 9 与 10 期，2010 年 11 月/12 月，第 1177-1217 页；马克·T·布拉德肖、劳伦斯·D·布朗与凯莉·黄，《卖方分析师是否在目标价预测能力上存在差异？》，载于《会计研究评论》，第 18 卷，第 4 期，2013 年 12 月，第 930-955 页；以及马克·T·布拉德肖，《利用目标价证明卖方分析师股票推荐的合理性》。
Research,” Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 37, Nos. 9 and 10, November/December 2010, 1177-1217; Mark T. Bradshaw, Lawrence D. Brown, and Kelly Huang, “Do Sell-side Analysts Exhibit Differential Target Price Forecasting Ability?” Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 18, No. 4, December 2013, 930-955; and Mark T. Bradshaw, “The Use of Target Prices to Justify Sell-Side Analysts’ Stock Recommendations,”
Accounting Horizons，第 16 卷，第 1 期，2002 年 3 月，第 27-41 页。目标价可通过运用分布得到优化。参见 Guy Weyns、Juan-Luis Perez、Barry Hurewitz 和 Vlad Jenkins 合著的《摩根士丹利风险-收益视角：释放基本面分析的全部潜力》，《应用公司金融杂志》，第 23 卷，第 2 期，2011 年春季，第 59-68 页；Patricia M. Dechow 和 Haifeng You 合著的《理解分析师目标价隐含回报的决定因素》，《会计评论》，第 95 卷，第 6 期，2020 年 11 月，第 125-149 页。
Accounting Horizons, Vol. 16, No. 1, March 2002, 27-41. Target prices can be improved through the use of distributions. See Guy Weyns, Juan-Luis Perez, Barry Hurewitz, and Vlad Jenkins, “Morgan Stanley’s Risk-Reward Views: Unlocking the Full Potential of Fundamental Analysis,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 23, No. 2, Spring 2011, 59-68; Patricia M. Dechow and Haifeng You, “Understanding the Determinants of Analyst Target Price Implied Returns,” Accounting Review, Vol. 95, No. 6, November 2020, 125-149.
以下是段落的译文：
13 以下是计算过程。交易前，该公司的隐含内在价值为 42.76 亿美元，即 65.3
13 Here’s the math. The company’s implied intrinsic value before the transaction was $4,276 million, or 65.3
590 万股乘以每股 65.48 美元。该公司出售了价值 11.26 亿美元的股票，这是 500 万股的乘积。
million shares times $65.48 per share. The company sold stock worth $1,126 million, the product of 5 million
的股票，价格为 225.20 美元。公司的新价值是 54.02 亿美元，即 42.76 亿美元加上 11.26 亿美元，除以新的流通股总数 7030 万股（6530 万 + 500 万），每股价值 76.84 美元。14 “投资”是多个知名因素中的一个（其他因素包括规模、价值、动量和质量）。
shares and a price of $225.20. The new value of the firm is $5,402 million, or $4,276 plus $1,126 million, which divided by the new shares outstanding of 70.3 million (65.3 + 5.0 million) equals $76.84 per share. 14 “Investment” is one of the factors (others include size, value, momentum, and quality) in a number of prominent
试图在资本资产定价模型输出之外解释股票收益的因子模型。衡量投资的常见方式是资产增长，普遍的结论是：资产快速增长往往伴随着后续较差的总股东回报。较新的研究将资产增长分解为投资部分和非投资部分。由投资增长导致的资产快速增长并不会预示较差的回报。相反，因股权发行但无投资所导致的资产快速增长却会。参见 Michael Cooper、Huseyin Gulen 和 Mihai Ion 合著的《资产增长在实证资产定价模型中的应用》工作论文，2020 年 8 月。
factor models that seek to explain equity returns beyond the output of the capital asset pricing model. The common way to measure investment is the growth in assets, and the general conclusion is that rapid asset growth is associated with poor subsequent total shareholder returns. More recent work parses asset growth into investment and non-investment components. Rapid asset growth as the result of investment growth does not predict poor returns. By contrast, rapid asset growth as the result of equity issuance but without investment does. See Michael Cooper, Huseyin Gulen, and Mihai Ion, “The Use of Asset Growth in Empirical Asset Pricing Models,” Working Paper, August 2020.
15 亚历山大·格拉德斯通和凯特琳·麦凯布，“一场新的迷因股狂潮让 AMC 获得了金矿股份”，《华尔街
15 Alexander Gladstone and Caitlin McCabe, “A New Meme-Stock Frenzy Led AMC to Gold Mine Stake,” Wall
《华尔街日报》，2022 年 3 月 15 日。
Street Journal, March 15, 2022.