变化中的世界秩序——引文与参考书目

CITATIONS, BIBLIOGRAPHY, AND INDEX FOR

PRINCIPLES FOR DEALING WITH THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER: WHY NATIONS SUCCEED AND FAIL BY RAY DALIO

The following pages provide more detailed attributions of sources used in the book. References are made via page number and opening words of relevant text.

CONTENTS Note on Data Sources Notes and Citations References Works With Named Author Works Without Named Author Databases and Other Sources Corrections to Initial 2021 Printing

3 4 41 41

NOTE ON DATA SOURCES

In addition to the specific cases, which we call out in the following pages, the internal analyses shown in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order utilize data and information from public, private and internal sources. In particular, the country power analyses shown throughout Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order draw upon thousands of individuals series, which come from a variety of databases and academic sources, too many to list here in full. A partial list of notable data sources used includes: Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labor Studies (ICTWSS Dataspace), Bank of England, Bank for International Settlements, Barro-Lee Educational Attainment Dataset, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Clio Infra, Correlates of War, Encyclopedia Britannica, Energy Information Administration, Gapminder, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), Global Financial Data, Global Trade Information Services, Google NGram Viewer, INSEAD Knowledge, Institute of International Finance, International Labour Organization, International Monetary Fund, Long Finance Initiative, Maddison Historical Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research (Historical Cross-Country Technology Adoption (HCCTA) Dataset), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Our World in Data, Penn World Table, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Transparency International, United Nations, Varieties of Democracy (V-DEM), World Bank, World Economic Forum, World Inequality Database, World Intellectual Property Organization, and World Values Survey. Other potential sources for internal analyses include: the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, CBRE, Inc., CEIC Data Company Ltd., Clarus Financial Technology, Conference Board of Canada, Consensus Economics Inc., Corelogic, Inc., CoStar Realty Information, Inc., CreditSights, Inc., Credit Market Analysis Ltd., Dealogic LLC, DTCC Data Repository (U.S.), LLC, Ecoanalitica, Energy Aspects, EPFR Global, Eurasia Group Ltd., European Money Markets Institute – EMMI, Evercore, Factset Research Systems, Inc., The Financial Times Limited, GaveKal Research Ltd., Harvard Business Review, Haver Analytics, Inc., The Investment Funds Institute of Canada, ICE Data Derivatives UK Limited, IHS Markit, Impact-Cubed, Institutional Shareholder Services, Informa (EPFR), Investment Company Institute, International Energy Agency (IEA), Investment Management Association, JP Morgan, Lipper Financial, Mergent, Inc., Metals Focus Ltd, Moody’s Analytics, Inc., MSCI, Inc., Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCED), Pensions & Investments Research Center, Qontigo GmbH, Quandl, Refinitiv RP Data Ltd, Rystad Energy, Inc., S&P Global Market Intelligence Inc., Sentix GmbH, Spears & Associates, Inc., State Street Bank and Trust Company, Sustainalytics, Totem Macro, US Department of Commerce, Verisk-Maplecroft, Vigeo-Eiris (V.E), Wind Information (HK) Company, Wood Mackenzie Limited, and World Bureau of Metal Statistics.

NOTES AND CITATIONS

10 This study is called “Productivity and Structural Reform”: Please visit economicprinciples.org to see all the studies mentioned in this book. For this specific study, “Productivity and Structural Reform: Why Countries Succeed & Fail, and What Should Be Done So Failing Countries Succeed” please go to: https:// economicprinciples.org/downloads/ray_dalio__how_the_economic_machine_works__leveragings_and_ deleveragings.pdf. 10 “Populism: The Phenomenon”: To read this study of mine, please go to: https://economicprinciples.org/ downloads/bw-populism-the-phenomenon.pdf. 11 “Our Biggest Economic, Social, and Political Issue: The Two Economies—The Top 40% and the Bottom 60%”: To read this study of mine, please go to: https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/ bwam102317.pdf. 11 “Why and How Capitalism Needs to Be Reformed”: To read this study of mine, please go to: https:// economicprinciples.org/Why-and-How-Capitalism-Needs-To-Be-Reformed/. 11 In 2021, more than $16 trillion: Mullen, Cormac. “Negative-Yielding Debt Hits Record $16 Trillion on Curve Fright.” Bloomberg, August 14, 2014. 16 the US has military bases: Hussein, Mohammed, and Mohammed Haddad. “Infographic: US Military Presence around the World.” Al Jazeera, September 10, 2021. 18

such as videos you can find online: To see all of my videos, please visit economicprinciples.org.

CHAPTER 1THE BIG CYCLE IN A NUTSHELL

30 GLOBAL REAL GDP PER CAPITA: This chart combines spliced estimates at a country level for major countries. The analysis for this chart is based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and from Fouquet, Roger and Stephen N. Broadberry. “Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29.4 (2015): 227–244. Specific country series, many found via Fouquet and Broadberry, include: for the UK, the Bank of England’s dataset, “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data”; as well as Broadberry, Stephen, Bruce Campbell, Alexander Klein, Mark Overton and Bas van Leeuwen. British Economic Growth, 1270–1870. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015. For NLD, van Zanden, Jan Luiten, and Bas van Leeuwen. “Persistent but not consistent: the growth of national income in Holland 1347–1807.” Explorations in Economic History 49 (2015): 119–130. For ITA, Malanima, Paolo. “The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913.” European Review of Economic History 15 (2011): 169–219. For ESP, Alvarez-Nogal, Carlos and Leandro Prados de la Escosura. “The rise and fall of Spain (1270–1850).” Economic History Review 66.1 (2013): 1–37. For SWE, Schön, Lennart and Olle Krantz. “The Swedish economy in the early modern period: constructing historical national accounts 1560–2000.” European Review of Economic History 16 (2012): 529–549. For PRT, Palma, Nuno, and Jaime Reis. “Portuguese demography and economic growth, 1500– 1850.” Paper for “Accounting for the Great Divergence” Conference, The University of Warwick in Venice, 22–24 May 2014. For CHN, Broadberry, Stephen. “Accounting for the Great Divergence.” VoxEU (2013); as well as Deng, Kent and O’Brien, Patrick Karl. “Creative Destruction: Chinese GDP per capita from the Han Dynasty to Modern Times,” Working Papers 0063, European Historical Economics Society (EHES), 2014. 30 GLOBAL LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH: This chart was produced using internal Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Our World in Data and the UN for the front history, extended back based on data from Clio Infra and Gapminder. The 2020 point is based on countries that had reported data for the year as of August 2021. 33 GLOBAL DEATHS BY CATEGORY: This chart was produced using internal analysis, with reference to Our World in Data, specifically for global deaths from conflicts and based on data from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica. 33 ESTIMATED DEATHS FROM CONFLICT: This chart is based on Bridgewater analysis, based on analysis of death counts from major conflict events using data from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica. 37

For example, Tom Brokaw: “Tom Brokaw Explains the Origins of ‘The Greatest Generation’.” NBC Nightly News, June 4, 2014.

47 “Exorbitant privilege” is a way: Bernanke, Ben S. “The Dollar’s International Role: An ‘Exorbitant Privilege’?” Brookings, January 7, 2016. 48 when it had a per capita income 40 times: Welniak, E. J. “Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States: 1985.” Current Population Reports: Consumer Income 156 (1987): 1–213.

48 that of China’s: Friesen, Garth. “Politics, Productivity & Population: Why the Chinese Economy Flew and India’s Just Grew.” Forbes, May 21, 2019. 48

started borrowing from the Chinese: Lee, Amanda. “US Debt to China: How Big Is It and Why Is It Important?” South China Morning Post, December 3, 2020.

56

it then had two-thirds of the world’s: “The Postwar Drain on Foreign Gold and Dollar Reserves.” Federal Reserve Bulletin 34.4 (April 1948): 375.

56 it then accounted for: Lundestad, Geir. International Relations since 1945: East, West, North, South. Los Angeles: Sage Publications, 2018. 56 it then had a monopoly: “Atomic Diplomacy.” Milestones: 1945-1952. Office of the Historian, United States Department of State.

CHAPTER 2THE DETERMINANTS

69 The Black Death killed: Gould, George M., and Walter L. Pyle. Anomalies and Curiosities of Medicine: Being an Encyclopedic Collection of Rare and Extraordinary Cases, and of the Most Striking Instances of Abnormality in All Branches of Medicine and Surgery, Derived from an Exhaustive Research of Medical Literature from Its Origin to the Present Day. New York, NY: Kaplan, 2009: 891–894. 69

and smallpox killed: “Bugs, Drugs & Smoke: Stories from Public Health.” World Health Organization, 2012: 5.

69 which is more than double: Hedges, Chris. “What Every Person Should Know about War.” The New York Times, July 6, 2003. 87 “speaking softly and carrying a big stick”: Vice President Theodore Roosevelt coined this term at a speech at the Minnesota State Fair in Minneapolis on September 2, 1901. 91

These shifts in inequality: Scheidel, Walter. The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2017.

92

As Aristotle said: This is a quotation sourced from Aristoteles. Aristotle Politics. Translated by Benjamin Jowett. Mineola: Dover Publications, 2000: IV.11.

94 For example, in France: Neely, Sylvia. A Concise History of the French Revolution. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2008: 55–67.

CHAPTER 3THE BIG CYCLE OF MONEY, CREDIT, DEBT, AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

116 For example, after the destruction of debt: I discuss this in detail in my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises. Westport, CT: Bridgewater, 2018, Part 1: 32–34. 117 such as temples in China: See, Mitchell, Matthew. “Borrowing from the Buddha.” Entrepreneurship in Asia 24.2 2019: 51–54. 119 W hen this is done well: Please see my book, Principles for Navigating Big Debt (Part 1: 32–34) for a more in-depth discussion on beautiful deleveraging. 123

The Fed announced that plan: “Federal Reserve Takes Additional Actions to Provide up to $2.3 Trillion in Loans to Support the Economy.” Press release, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 9, 2020.

125

As I explained comprehensively in my book: Please see my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (Part 1: 12) for a comprehensive explanation on the policy makers’ four levers.

e.g., in dynastic China and during the Roman Empire: Please see my book, Principles for Navigating Big 127 Debt Crises for more as well as a detailed case study on Germany’s Weimar Republic (Part 1: 60, Part 2: 5-45). 128 For example, the Old Testament: 25 Lev. 8–13.

CHAPTER 4THE CHANGING VALUE OF MONEY

132 Of the roughly 750 currencies: This is based on internal Bridgewater analysis, using data sourced from Dollar Daze. 134 R ESERVE CURRENCIES VS GOLD: This chart was produced using internal Bridgewater analysis, based in part on exchange rate and price data from Global Financial Data. 135

SPOT FX VS GOLDThis chart was created from Bridgewater analysis, based in part on exchange rate

and price data from Global Financial Data.

135 F X TOTAL RETURN VS GOLD: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on exchange rate, interest rate, and price data from Global Financial Data. 136 Major exceptions were Japan: Mitchener, Kris James, Masato Shizume, and Marc D. Weidenmier. “Why Did Countries Adopt the Gold Standard? Lessons from Japan.” National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2009: 24–27. 136 Spain, which frequently suspended: Solans, Domingo. “A Farewell to the Peseta.” Speech delivered at the Colegio de Economistas de Madrid, European Central Bank, February 28, 2002. 136 Still, between 1919 and 1922: Lopez, Jose A, and Kris James Mitchener. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I.” Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2018. 137 In 1968–73 (most importantly in 1971): Ghizoni, Sandra Kollen. “Nixon Ends Convertibility of U.S. Dollars to Gold and Announces Wage/Price Controls.” Federal Reserve History, August 1971. 137

For example, in the early 1900s: Moen, Jon R, and Ellis W Tallman. The Panic of 1907. Federal Reserve History.

138 A stock market bubble led: Taylor, Bryan. A Century of Chinese Stocks and Bonds. Global Financial Data, January 4, 2019. 138

SPOT FX VS GOLD (1850–1913): This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on exchange rate and price data from Global Financial Data.

139 which I describe in great detail: For a detailed case study on Weimar Germany, please see my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (Part 2: 5–45). 139 SPOT FX VS GOLD (1913–1930): This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on exchange rate and price data from Global Financial Data.

143 CURRENCY AND GOLD REAL RETURNS OF MAJOR COUNTRIES SINCE 1850: This table was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on exchange rate, interest rate, and price data from Global Financial Data. 144

R EAL RETURN OF GOLDThis chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on

exchange rate and price data from Global Financial Data.

145 R EAL RETURN OF BILLS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on interest rate and price data from Global Financial Data.

CHAPTER 5THE BIG CYCLE OF INTERNAL ORDER AND DISORDER

153 To get a rich picture of what makes leaders great in different types of circumstances, I recommend Henry Kissinger’s forthcoming book on leadership: Kissinger, Henry A. Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy. Penguin Press, 2022. 156 GLOBAL RGDP PER CAPITA: This chart combines spliced estimates at a country level for major countries. The analysis for this chart is based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and from Fouquet and Broadberry (2015). Specific country series, many found via Fouquet and Broadberry, include: for the UK, “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data,” as well as Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, and van Leeuwen (2015). For NLD, van Zanden and van Leeuwen (2015). For ITA, Malanima (2011). For ESP, Alvarez-Nogal and de la Escosura (2013). For SWE, Schön and Krantz (2013). For PRT, Palma, and Reis (2014). For CHN, Broadberry (2013) as well as Deng and O’Brien (2013). 158

HISTORICAL LIKELIHOOD OF INTERNAL CONFLICT: This chart was produced based on Bridgewater analysis, using in part data from Global Financial Data.

161 As Aristotle conveyed in Politics: Direct quotation sourced from, Aristoteles. Aristotle Politics. Translated by Benjamin Jowett. Mineola: Dover Publications, 2000: IV.11. 163 In the British Empire’s Victorian Age: Adonis, Andrew. “The People’s William.” Prospect, July 4, 2009. 163

In the German Empire in the late 1800s: Kissinger, Henry A. “Otto Von Bismarck, Master Statesman.” The New York Times, March 31, 2011.

164 Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew successfully: “Lee Kuan Yew.” Encyclopedia Britannica. 164

it is glorious to be rich: This is a simplified version of a quote by Deng Xiaoping, see: Osnos, Evan. “To Get Rich Is Glorious.” The New Yorker, December 7, 2009.

164

it doesn’t matter whether the cat: This quote is attributed to Deng Xiaoping, “It Doesn’t Matter If a Cat Is Black or White, as Long as It Catches Mice.” Oxford Reference.

166

the notorious Emperor Nero: Levine, Joshua. “The New, Nicer Nero.” Smithsonian Magazine, October 2020.

166

Louis XIV: Meares, Hadley. “How Versailles’ Over-the-Top Opulence Drove the French to Revolt.” https://www.history.com/news/versailles-palace-opulence

166 Ming Dynasty’s Wanli Emperor: “The Eternal Emperor’s Road from Glory to Ashes.” China Daily, May 20, 2017. 170 Interestingly, those states and cities in the US: Analysis based on data from a variety of US government organizations and Truth in Accounting’s January 2020 report, Financial State of the Cities.

170 has the highest per capita income: Singer, Stephen. “US: Personal Income in Connecticut Highest in the Nation in 2018, but Growth Lagged.” Hartford Courant, May 26, 2019. 170

largest wealth gap and income gap: Smolnik, Dan. “Income Inequality in Connecticut Towns Has a Racial Component.” The CT Mirror, September 30, 2020.

170 one of the largest per capita debt: Financial State of the States 2021. Truth in Accounting, September 2021. 171 Consider this fact: Parthenon-EY Education practice, Ernst & Young LLP. Untapped Potential: Engaging All Connecticut Youth. Parthenon, 2016: 11. 174 Though it varies from state to state: Turner, Cory. “America’s Schools Are ‘Profoundly Unequal,’ Says U.S. Civil Rights Commission.” NPR, January 11, 2018. 176 During the French Revolution: Popkin, Jeremy D. “The Royalist Press in the Reign of Terror.” The Journal of Modern History 51.4 (1979): 685. 176

Viscount Northcliffe, who controlled just under: Thompson, J. Lee. “Fleet Street Colossus: The Rise and Fall of Northcliffe, 1896–1922.” Parliamentary History 25.1 (2008): 115–138.

177 For example, a 2019 Gallup poll: Brenan, Megan. “Americans’ Trust in Mass Media Edges Down to 41%.” Gallup, September 26, 2019. 177 Still, in reflecting on the problem: “Media’s Next Challenge: Overcoming the Threat of Fake News.” The New York Times, November 6, 2016. 183 Stage 6: When There Are Civil Wars: I owe a debt of gratitude to Crane Brinton, whose book The Anatomy of Revolution (New York: Vintage Books, 1965) served as a significant influence on my analysis in this section. 185 A nother is Japan’s Meiji Restoration: “Meiji Restoration.” Encyclopedia Britannica.

CHAPTER 6THE BIG CYCLE OF EXTERNAL ORDER AND DISORDER

EST EUROPEAN DEATHS FROM CONFLICT: This chart was produced internally, based on analysis of death counts from major conflict events using data from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica. The estimates shown in the chart are rough and were compiled by looking at deaths in major conflicts across the most prominent European powers.

202 But the global depression: Dimsdale, Nicholas H, Nicholas Horsewood, and Arthur van Ruil. “Unemployment in Interwar Germany: An Analysis of the Labor Market, 1927–1936.” The Journal of Economic History 66.3 (2006): 778–808. 202 Specific developments and detail: I discuss this period in great detail in my book, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (Part 2: 4–45). 203 He privatized state-owned businesses: Bel, Germa. “Against the Mainstream: Nazi Privatization in 1930s Germany.” The Economic History Review 63.1 (2010): 34–55. 203 He financed the substantially increased: Nathan, Otto. Nazi War Finance and Banking. National Bureau of Economic Research, April 1944: 5–26. 204 the unemployment rate was 25: DeLong, J. Bradford. “Slouching Towards Utopia? The Economic History of the Twentieth Century: XV. Nazis and Soviets.” J. Bradford DeLong, University of California at Berkeley, February 1997. 205

W hen its exports fell by around 50 percent: Hatase, Mariko. “Devaluation and Exports in Interwar Japan: The Effects of Sharp Depreciation of the Yen in the Early 1930s.” Monetary and Economic Studies (October 2002): 144–145.

205

In 1931, Japan went broke: Hatase (2002): 146.

205 In 1934, there was severe famine: Doglia, Arnaud. Japanese Mass Violence and Its Victims in the Fifteen Years’ War (1931–45). SciencesPo, 2011. 207 In combination with extreme government policies: Applebaum, Anne. “How Stalin Hid Ukraine’s Famine from the World.” The Atlantic, October 13, 2017. 207 At the same time, internal political fighting: BRIA 4 a The Stalin Purges and “Show Trials”. Constitutional Rights Foundation. 207 Soak the Rich Tax: Blakey, Roy G., and Gladys C. Blakey. “The Revenue Act of 1935.” The American Economic Review 25.4 (1935): 673.

top marginal income tax rate: “Income and Wealth Taxes (1934–1941).” Living New Deal, May 7, 2018.

207 versus as low as 25: Compiled using data from Thomas Piketty.

By 1941, the top personal tax rate: Compiled using data from Thomas Piketty.

the top corporate tax rate: Historical Corporate Top Tax Rate and Bracket: 1909–2014. Tax Policy Center, December 2, 2015.

From 1935 until the end of 1936: For more on this, please see my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (Part 2: 84–90).

207 Specific developments through the Great Depression: I explain this in great detail in my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (Part 2: 49–102). 208

In 1936, the Federal Reserve tightened money: For more, please see my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (Part 2: 91).

210 W hile the US remained isolationist: Xu, Guangqiu. “The Issue of US Air Support for China during the Second World War, 1942–45.” Journal of Contemporary History 36.3 (July 2001): 464. 210 A Japanese soldier struck: Abend, Hallett. “Diplomat Slapped by Tokyo Soldier.” The New York Times, January 28, 1938. 211 Earlier in 1940, Secretary of War Henry Stimson: Fuller, Joseph V. (ed.). Proclamation No. 2413: Restrictions Upon Trade with Japan. Papers Relating to the Foreign Relations of the United States, Volume II, Japan, 1931-1941, p. 211. Office of the Historian, United States Department of State. 211 a ll iron and steel to destinations: As quoted in Barnes, Harry Elmer. Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace: A Critical Examination of the Foreign Policy of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Its Aftermath. Torrance, CA: Institute for Historical Review, 1953. 211

v ital to the defense of the United States: “Documents Related to FDR and Churchill.” National Archives and Records Administration.

212 Th is cut off three-fourths: “United States freezes Japanese assets.” History.com, November 16, 2009. Author’s note: This includes the impact on Japan of other countries joining the US in the embargo. 212 and 80% of its oil: Arima, Yuichi. The Way to Pearl Harbor: US vs Japan. Inventory of Conflict and Environment, December 2003. 212 Japan calculated that it would run: Donovan, Patrick H. “Oil Logistics in the Pacific War: In and after Pearl Harbor.” Air Force Journal of Logistics XXVIII.1 (2001).

R EGULATIONS IMPACTING ASSETSThis table was produced using data sourced from Thomas

Piketty for top marginal tax rates for the US, UK, and Germany; data for Japan was sourced from Moriguchi, Chiaki, and Emmanuel Saez. “The Evolution of Income Concentration in Japan, 1886–2002: Evidence from Income Tax Statistics.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 90.4 (2008): 728.

215 EQUITY RETURNS IN WWII: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data.

CHAPTER 7INVESTING IN LIGHT OF THE BIG CYCLE

221 Up until around 1350: For a history of usury laws within religious communities, see Calder, Ryan. “God’s Technicians: Religious Jurists and the Usury Ban in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.” European Journal of Sociology 57.2 (2016): 207–257. 223 The alchemy of lending: Armstrong, Lawrin D. Usury and Public Debt In Early Renaissance Florence: Lorenzo Ridolfi on the “Monte Comune”. Vol. II. Toronto: Pontifical Institute of Mediaeval Studies, 2003. 223 Rules for lending changed: Scott, Hamish M. The Oxford Handbook of Early Modern European History: 1350–1750. Vol. II. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015: 520. 225 A LOOK AT ASSET RETURNS ACROSS THE GREAT POWERS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data. 226 A LOOK AT ASSET RETURNS ACROSS THE GREAT POWERS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data. 227

SHARE OF PORTFOLIOS LOSING X%: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data.

228 WORST INVESTOR EXPERIENCES: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data. 229 w ith global exports up several multiples: Federico, Giovanni, and Antonio Tena-Junguito. “World Trade, 1800–1938: a New Data-Set.” Working Paper, European Historical Economics Society, January 2016: 4. 231

STOCK MARKET CLOSURESThis chart was produced using Bridgewater Analysis, based primarily

on Jorion, Philippe, and William N Goetzmann. “Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century.” Forthcoming in Journal of Finance (1999) as well as information from Global Financial Data.

231

DEATHS IN MAJOR VIOLENT CONFLICTS (%POP): Chart produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on analysis of death counts from major conflict events using data from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica.

232 A recent study showed that US: Dash, Jonathan. “How Investors Are Costing Themselves Money”. Forbes, June 2, 2021. 232

effective average federal tax rate: The Distribution of Household Income, 2017 § (2020).

234 USA FINANCIAL ASSETS SHARE OF TOTAL ASSETS: Chart produced using Bridgewater analysis, based primarily on data from World Inequality Database. 234

R EAL RETURN OF BILLThis chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on

interest rate and price data from Global Financial Data.

CHAPTER 8THE LAST 500 YEARS IN A TINY NUTSHELL

244 Back in 1500: Kissinger, Henry. World Order. New York: Penguin Books, 2015: 3–4. 245 Up until the 1300s and 1400s: Blum, Jerome. The Rise of Serfdom in Eastern Europe. Indianapolis: BobbsMerrill, 1957: 807–836. 246 As a result of this, the church: Ekelund, Robert B., Robert D. Tollison, Gary M. Anderson, Robert F. Hébert, and Audrey B. Davidson. Sacred Trust: The Medieval Church as an Economic Firm. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996: 35. 247 Map of major powers in Europe: This map is a recreation of borders at the time, based in part on the map at this link: https://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/20100000/Europe-1550-europe-20101490-2560-1825.png. 248

Literacy rates were extremely high: Smith, Richard J. The Qing Dynasty and Traditional Chinese Culture. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2015: 38.

248

For example, it had a widespread: Perdue, Peter C. “Empire’s Little Helper.” Foreign Policy, July 4, 2020.

248 Of all the civilizations: Kennedy, Paul M. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House, 1989: 4. 249 Map of Ming China: This map is a recreation of borders at the time, based in part on a map from Grolier Online Atlas, available at this link: http://go.grolier.com/atlas?id=mh00012. [Accessed February 2021]. 250

its capital, Tenochtitlán: Levy, Buddy. Conquistador: Hernán Cortés, King Montezuma, and the Last Stand of the Aztecs. New York: Bantam Books Trade Paperbacks, 2009: 106.

252 W hile private and government borrowing weren’t new: Taylor, Bryan. “Birds, Boats, and Bonds in Venice: The First AAA Government Issue.” The Big Picture, December 20, 2013. 253 They used their riches: “The Renaissance – why it changed the world.” The Telegraph, October 6, 2015. 254 K nowledge and ideas spread: Buringh, Eltjo and Jan Luiten van Zanden. “Charting the ‘Rise of the West’: Manuscripts and Printed Books in Europe, a Long-Term Perspective from the Sixth through Eighteenth Centuries.” The Journal of Economic History 69.2 (2009): 11–13. 254 BOOK/MANUSCRIPT PRODUCTION: Chart produced from Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Buringh, Eltjo, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. “Charting the ‘Rise of the West’: Manuscripts and Printed Books in Europe, a Long-Term Perspective from the Sixth through Eighteenth Centuries.” The Journal of Economic History 69.2 (2009). 255 The Spanish Empire grew: Coleman, David. “Spain.” In The Reformation World. Edited by Andrew Pettegree. London: Routledge, 2000: 296.

256 UK CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: This chart is based off of data from “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 256 SILVER PRODUCTION MEXICO/PERU: Henriques, António, and Nuno Palma. “Comparative European Institutions and the ‘Little Divergence’, 1385–1800.” VoxEU: CEPR, December 10, 2019. 256 However they eagerly accepted: “China and Europe: 1500–1800.” China and Europe, 1500–2000 and Beyond: What is “Modern?”, Columbia University: Asia for Educators. 257 Though not colonizing expeditions: Fairbank, John King. China: A New History. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2005: 138. 257

Yongle’s navy was the largest: Fairbanks and Goldman (2005): 138

257 ROUGH COUNT OF TRIBUTARY AREAS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based primarily on data from Fairbank, J. K., and S. Y. Teng. “On the Ch’ing Tributary System.” Harvard Journal of Asiatic Studies 6.2 (1941).

CHAPTER 9THE BIG CYCLE RISE AND DECLINE OF THE DUTCH EMPIRE AND THE GUILDER

268 Spanish silver coinage came close: von Glahn, Richard. The Economic History of China: From Antiquity to the Nineteenth Century. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 2016: 307–308. 269 SHARE OF MAJOR INVENTIONS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Bunch, Bryan H., and Alexander Hellemans. The Timetables of Technology: A Chronology of the Most Important People and Events in the History of Technology. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994. 269 EMPIRE SIZE: Chart produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on landmass data from the World Bank and data on historical dates of empire control from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia, Oxford Reference, and Encyclopedia Britannica. 269 SHARE OF GLOBAL OUTPUT: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics. 270 Terrible national finances caused: Drelichman, Mauricio and Hans-Joachim Voth. Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt, Taxes, and Default in the Age of Philip II. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014: 1. 271 Leadership deteriorated: McLean, John. “Western Civilization: The Spanish Habsburgs.” Lumen Learning. 271 SPANISH MARAVEDI COIN: This chart was produced using data from Global Financial Data. 271 THE RISE: Three sources were instrumental in understanding the detail of the Dutch economy and the guilder during the time period covered in this study: de Vries, Jan and Ad van der Woude. The First Modern Economy: Success, Failure, and Perseverance of the Dutch Economy, 1500–1815. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010; Hart, Marjolein’t, Joost Jonker, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. A Financial History of the Netherlands. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010; Quinn, Stephen, and William Roberds. Death of Reserve Currency. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: Working Paper Series, September 2014. 272 The Dutch invented ships: de Vries and van der Woude (2010): 344, 346–347, 357. 273 Dutch literacy rates: This is based on internal Bridgewater analysis. For more specific data, see: Akçomak, I Semih, Dinand Webbink, and Bas ter Weel. “Why Did the Netherlands Develop so Early? The Legacy of the Brethren of the Common Life.” ISA Discussion Paper Series, no. 7167 (January 2013): 2; Roser, Max, and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina. “Literacy rate, 1475 to 2015.” Our World in Data, August 13, 2016. 273 NLD UNIVERSITIES FOUNDED: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Clio Infra. 273 NLD BOOKS PUBLISHED: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Clio Infra.

274 NLD SHARE OF MAJOR INVENTIONS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Bunch and Hellemans (1994).

NLD EXPORTSThis chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data for the 16th to 18th

centuries from Findlay, Ronald, and Kevin O’Rourke. Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium. Princeton N.J.: Princeton Univ. Press, 2009.

274 M AJOR INVENTIONS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and Bunch and Hellemans (1994). 274 R EAL GDP PER CAPITA (2017 USD): The analysis for this chart is based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and from Fouquet and Broadberry (2015). Specific country series, many found via Fouquet and Broadberry, include: for the UK, “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data,” as well as Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, and van Leeuwen (2015). For NLD, van Zanden and van Leeuwen (2015). For ITA, Malanima (2011). For ESP, Alvarez-Nogal and de la Escosura (2013). For SWE, Schön and Krantz (2013). For PRT, Palma, and Reis (2014). For CHN, Broadberry (2013) as well as Deng and O’Brien (2013). 275 The voyages across the world: de Vries, Jan and Ad van der Woude (2010): 244; Petram, L.O. “The World’s First Stock Exchange: How the Amsterdam Market for Dutch East India Company Shares Became a Modern Securities Market, 1602–1700.” Thesis, University of Amsterdam, 2011: 3. 275 The formation of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange: Petram (2011): 2, 18. 276 DUTCH EAST INDIA CO DIVIDENDS: This chart produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from de Vries and van der Woude (2010). 276

In addition to creating: Hart, Jonker, and van Zanden (2010): 40.

276 In 1609, the Bank of Amsterdam: Hart, Jonker, and van Zanden (2010): 45. 277 GRAMS OF FINE SILVER PER GUILDER: This chart was produced using data from Hart, Jonker, and van Zande (2010). 277 As a result of this system: Hart, Jonker, and van Zanden (2010): 41. 277 By 1650, it was fairly common: For more, see Hart, Jonker, and van Zanden (2010). 278 Cardinal Richelieu: Kissinger (2015): 21–23. 279 The Peace of Westphalia reflected: Henry Kissinger’s World Order served as a meaningful influence on my analysis and understanding of the Peace of Westphalia. 281 Eighty Years’ War: Israel, Jonathan Irvine. Dutch Primacy in World Trade, 1585–1740. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2002: 185.

281 The First Anglo-Dutch War: Israel (2002): 207. 281 The Dano-Swedish War: Israel (2002): 219. 281 The Second Anglo-Dutch War: Israel (2002): 270–278. 281

The Franco-Dutch War: Israel, Jonathan Irvine. The Dutch Republic: Its Rise, Greatness, and Fall: 1477– 1806. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 2007: 824–825

281

The Fourth Anglo-Dutch War: Israel (2002): 402–403.

282 A fter 1688, as Great Britain: Neal, Larry. The Rise of Financial Capitalism: International Capital Markets in the Age of Reason. New York: Cambridge University, 1990: 17. 283 Additionally, as is classic: de Vries and van der Woude (2010): 618–619. 283 ACCOUNTS AT BANK OF AMSTERDAM and BANK OF AMSTERDAM HOLDINGS: These charts were produced using data sourced from Hart, Jonker, and van Zanden (2010). 283 Because bills of exchange: See Quinn and Roberds (2014). 284 Starting in the 1770s: de Vries, Jan and Ad van der Woude (2010): 126. 284 Available payment data supports: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 13. 285 Having lost half its ships: de Vries and van der Woude (2010): 126. 285 the Dutch East India Company: de Vries and van der Woude (2010): 455–456. 285 DUTCH EAST INDIA COMPANY BALANCE SHEET and DUTCH EAST INDIA COMPANY PROFIT & LOSS: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from de Vries and van der Woude (2010). 285 As the Bank of Amsterdam printed: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 17. 286 That led to the classic: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 16. 286 BANK OF AMSTERDAM HOLDINGS: This chart was produced based on data from Hart, Jonker, and van Zanden (2010). 286 For reference, the full balance sheet: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 16. 286 The Bank of Amsterdam had no choice: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 17–18. 286 BANK OF AMSTERDAM LOANS OUTSTANDING: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 34.

Bank of Amsterdam deposits: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 19, 26.

287 The bank used its holdings: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 19–20. 287 Accounts backed by coins: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 16.

In 1971, the bank: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 24.

and in 1975: de Vries and van der Woude (2010): 685–686.

287 The Bank of Amsterdam was ahead of its time: Quinn, Stephen and William Roberds. “The Bank of Amsterdam Through the Lens of Monetary Competition.” Working Paper 2012–14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper Series (2012): 2. 287 Historical data suggests: Quinn and Roberds (2014): 26. 288 DUTCH GUILDER and VALUE OF THE DUTCH GUILDER: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Global Financial Data and Quinn and Roberds (2014). 288 BANK OF AMSTERDAM RESERVE RATIO (PRECIOUS METAL TO MONETARY LIABILITIES): This chart was produced using data from Quinn and Roberds (2014). 289 DUTCH EIC TOTAL RETURNS BY YEAR and TOTAL EQUITY RETURNS: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Global Financial Data; van Lent, Wim, and Stoyan V. Sgourev. “Local Elites versus Dominant Shareholders: Dividend Smoothing at the Dutch East India Company.” Academy of Management Proceedings (2013): 1; as well as other sources. 289 GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS: This chart was produced using data from Gelderblom, Oscar, and Joost Jonker. “Exploring the Market for Government Bonds in the Dutch Republic (1600–1800).” Draft, Utrecht University (2006) and “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 290 DUTCH BOND PRICES (TERM ANNUITIES): Gelderblom and Jonker (2006): 16.

CHAPTER 10THE BIG CYCLE RISE AND DECLINE OF THE BRITISH EMPIRE AND THE POUND

293 At its peak: This is from Bridgewater analysis based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics. 295 W hile these strengths: For a thorough argument of the role of the Glorious Revolution in setting up institutions critical to the UK’s success, please see: North, Douglass C., and Barry R. Weingast. “Constitutions and Commitment: Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in SeventeenthCentury England.” Journal of Economic History 49 (1989): 803–832. 295 By the 18th century: Mokyr, Joel. “Editor’s Introduction: The New Economic History and the Industrial Revolution.” In British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective, edited by Joel Mokyr, 2nd ed. New York: Routledge, 2019: 48. 295 The creation of the Bank of England: Goodman, Halley. “The Formation of the Bank of England: A Response to Changing Political and Economic Climate, 1694.” Penn History Review 17.1 (2009): 10. 296 GBR GOVT BOND YIELD: This chart is based in part on data from “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 296 GBR GOVT BOND YIELD (VS MAJOR COUNTRY MEDIAN): This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data and “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 296 GBR GOVT REVENUE: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis based on data from “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 297

M AJOR INVENTIONS and SHARE OF MAJOR INVENTIONS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Bunch and Hellemans (1994).

297

The Industrial Revolution: For this section, I owe a debt of gratitude to Joel Mokyr for his insightful analysis in The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective (2019).

299 R EAL GDP PER CAPITA: This chart combines spliced estimates at a country level for major countries. The analysis for this chart is based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and from Fouquet and Broadberry (2015). Specific country series, many found via Fouquet and Broadberry, include: for the UK, “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data,” as well as Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, and van Leeuwen (2015). For NLD, van Zanden and van Leeuwen (2015). For ITA, Malanima (2011). For ESP, Alvarez-Nogal and de la Escosura (2013). For SWE, Schön and Krantz (2013). For PRT, Palma, and Reis (2014). For CHN, Broadberry (2013) as well as Deng and O’Brien (2013). 301 From 1720 to 1780: Chartier, Roger. The Cultural Origins of the French Revolution. Translated by Lydia G. Cochrane. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1991: 72.

301 FRENCH UNIVERSITIES: This chart produced from Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Clio Infra.

LITERACY RATESThis chart is based on data from Our World in Data.

301 At the time, France’s…: Velde, Francois R. “John Law’s System.” The American Economic Review 97.2 (2007): 276–279.

Th is law created monopolistic: Velde (2007): 276–279.

302 New laws prohibited: Velde, François R., and David R. Weir. “The Financial Market and Government Debt Policy in France, 1746–1793.” The Journal of Economic History 52.1 (1992): 18. 303 W hile a number of these wars: Sargent, Thomas J., and François R. Velde. “Macroeconomic Features of the French Revolution.” Journal of Political Economy 103.3 (1995): 504. 303 Th is caused France’s debt service: This is based on internal Bridgewater analysis using information from Global Financial Data and Sargent and Velde (1995): 504. 303 Because the nobility: Morrisson, C., and W. Snyder. “The Income Inequality of France in Historical Perspective.” European Review of Economic History 4.1 (2000): 61. 303 Many French laborers: Sharp, Paul R., and Jacob L. Weisdorf. “French Revolution or Industrial Revolution? A Note on the Contrasting Experiences of England and France up to 1800.” Cliometrica 6.1 (2011): 84. 304 During the American Revolution the deficits: White, Eugene N. “The Legacy of Western European Fiscal and Monetary Institutions for the New World: The Seventeenth to the Nineteenth Century.” Presented at the 12th International Economic History Congress (1998). 304 Due to France’s inefficient: Neely (2008): 55–67. 305 FRENCH INFLATION: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Global Financial Data. 305 As is also classic: Oosterlinck, Kim, Loredana Ureche-Rangau, Jacques-Marie Vaslin. “Waterloo: A Godsend for French Public Finances?” Working Paper 41, European Historical Economics Society (2013): 1–2. 305

In 1796, the government held a ceremony: “An Assignat Press from the French Revolution.” Cité de l’Économie.

306 FRENCH CURRENCY VS GOLD: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Global Financial Data. 307 It should be noted that: “Great Britain, France, and the Neutrals, 1800–02.” Encyclopedia Britannica. 307 A New World Order: I owe a debt of gratitude for this section to Henry Kissinger, A World Restored. Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1957.

It may not have fulfilled: Direct quotation sourced from Kissinger (1957): 5.

“splendid isolation”: The sentiment for this term dates back to a speech made by 1st Lord of the Admiralty, George Goschen in 1896. It then became popular among contemporary politicians to describe Britain’s foreign policy at the time. See: Veldeman, Marie-Christine. “Britain and Europe: From ‘Splendid Isolation’ to ‘Semi-Detachment.’” Équivalences 39.1 (2012): 40–41.

309

As mentioned, at their peak: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics.

309 GBR EMPIRE SIZE (%WORLD): This chart was produced using Bridgewater internal analysis, based on landmass data from the World Bank and data on historical dates of empire control from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia, oxfordreference.com, and Encyclopedia Britannica. 310 A nd the share of trade denominated: Daudin, Guillaume, Kevin H O’Rourke, and Leandro Pradios de la Escosura. Trade and Empire, 1700–1870. Working Paper 2008–24, Centre de recherche en économique de Sciences Po, July 2008. 310

GBR SHARE OF WORLD EXPORTSThis chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in

part on Daudin, O’Rourke, and de la Escosura and “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.”

311

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT (%DEV WLD GDP): This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on Kindleberger, Charles P. A Financial History of Western Europe. London: Routledge, 2007.

311 In 1818, the English Rothschild: MacDonald, Scott B., and Albert L. Gastmann. A History of Credit and Power in the Western World. Transaction, 2004: 139. 311 Trust in the pound: For a more detailed description of this phenomenon, see: Sowerbutts, Rhiannon and Marco Schneebalg. “The demise of Overend Gurney.” The Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2016: 96–106. 312 SHARE OF GLOBAL DEBT IN GBP: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on “Interwar Public Debt Dataset, 1914–1949” in Chiţu, Livia, Barry Eichengreen, and Arnaud Mehl. “When Did the Dollar Overtake Sterling as the Leading International Currency? Evidence from the Bond Markets.” Journal of Development Economics (2013); Kindleberger; and data from Global Financial Data. 312 SHARE OF GLOBAL TRANSACTIONS IN GBP: Chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Broz, J. Lawrence. “Origins of the Federal Reserve System: International Incentives and the Domestic Free-Rider Problem.” International Organization 53.1 (1999); Eichengreen, Barry, Livia Chiţu, and Arnaud Mehl. Network Effects, Homogenous Goods and International Currency Choice: New Evidence on Oil Markets from an Older Era. Working Paper 1651, European Central Bank: Eurosystem, 2014; Hartmann, Philipp. Currency Competition and Foreign Exchange Markets: The Dollar, the Yen and the Euro. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007; Schenk, Catherine R. The Decline of Sterling: Managing the Retreat of an International Currency, 1945–1992. Cambridge University Press, 2010; and “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.”

312 Stepping back: Elbaum, Bernard, and William Lazonick. “The Decline of the British Economy: An Institutional Perspective.” The Journal of Economic History 44.2, 1984: 567–583. 313

INVENTIONS (% OF GLOBAL INVENTIONS): This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Bunch and Hellemans (1994).

313

GDP (% OF GLOBAL GDP): This chart was produced based on Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics.

313

For comparison, the top 1 percent’s: This was sourced from the data available from Thomas Piketty.

314 UK WEALTH GAP: This chart was produced using the World Inequality Database as well as data available from Thomas Piketty. 314 The combination of social change: “Liberal Welfare Reforms 1906–11” The National Archives. 314 By 1911, around 25 percent: Wrigley, Chris. “Trade Unionists and the Labour Party in Britain: The Bedrock of Success.” Revue française de civilisation britannique 15.2 (2009): 59–72. 315 Viewing an effective education system: Landes, David S. The Unbound Prometheus. 2nd ed. Harvard University Press, 2003: 346–348. 315 Starting in the 1860s: Landes (2003): 342. 315 PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE: This chart was produced using data from Roser, Max and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina. “Financing Education.” Our World in Data, 2016. 315 In order to create: Landes (2003): 151. 315 [Bismarck] remained undisputed world: This is a direct quotation from Hobsbawm, E.J. The Age of Empire: 1875–1914. Random House, 1987: 312. 316

SHARE OF WORLD PATENT APPLICATIONS: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from the World Intellectual Property Organization statistics database (as of Dec 2020) and Khan, B. Zorina. “An Economic History of Patent Institutions.” Economic History Services. https://eh.net/encyclopedia/an-economic-history-of-patent-institutions/.

316 % OF NOBEL PRIZES WON: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from “Nobel Prize Winners by Year.” Encyclopedia Britannica. 316 R ELATIVE SHARES OF WORLD MANUFACTURING: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Allen, Robert C. “Lessons from History for the Future of Work.” Nature 550 (2017). 317 W hile Bismarck was a skilled: Mommsen, Wolfgang J. “Kaiser Wilhelm II and German Politics.” Journal of Contemporary History 25.2 (1990): 289–316.

317 WARSHIP TONNAGE: This chart was produced based on data from Kennedy (1988). 317 SHARE OF GLOBAL MILITARY SPENDING: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from The Correlates of War Project and Kennedy (1988). 318

In fact, the term “new world order”: “The Wilsonian Model of Foreign Policy & the Post-Cold War World.” Working Paper, Air University, July 26, 1999.

319 DEU REAL GDP PER CAPITA and JPN REAL GDP PER CAPITA: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in on part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and Global Financial Data. 320 DEU SPOT FX/DEU BLACK MARKET SPOT FX: Black market exchange rate based on data from Global Financial Data. 320 Other countries’ central banks continued: Schenk (2011). 321 GBR SHARE OF GLOBAL RESERVES: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Eichengreen, Barry, Livia Chiţu, and Arnaud Mehl. “Stability or Upheaval? the Currency Composition of International Reserves in the Long Run.” IMF Economic Review 64.2 (2015); Eichengreen, Barry, and Marc Flandreau. “The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When Did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading International Currency?” Working Paper 1651, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2008. 321

GBP SHARE OF GLOBAL DEBTThis chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part

on data from Chiţu, Eichengreen, and Mehl; Kindleberger (2013); and data from Global Financial Data.

321 GBP SHARE OF GLOBAL TRANSACTIONS: Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Eichengreen, Chiţu, and Mehl (1999); Hartman; Schenk (2010); and “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 322 The Pound’s Suspended Convertibility: Beyond specific instances listed below, much of this account of the pound’s decline is indebted to the illuminating research of Catherine Schenk on this topic. 322 The 1940s are frequently: Schenk (2010): 37. 322 The war required: Schenk (2010): 38–39. 322 The US was anxious: Schenk (2010): 44–46. 322 The Bank of England was eager: Schenk (2010): 31–33; See also, Cairncross, Alec. Years of Recovery: British Economic Policy, 1945–51. Routledge, 2013: 126–127. 322 We are engaged in another battle: This is a quote from a speech by Prime Minister Clement Attlee given in 1947 as cited by Todman, Daniel. Britain’s War: A New World, 1942–1947. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2020: 829.

323 GBR CURRENT ACCOUNT: This chart was produced based on “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data.” 323 The governor of the National Bank: Schenk (2010): 66–67. 323 Competitiveness returned: For a discussion of other contributing factors, see Cairncross, A., and B. Eichengreen. Sterling in Decline: The Devaluations of 1931, 1949 and 1967. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2003: 151–155. 323

The devaluation did not lead: Schenk (2010): 39–46.

324 As a result, numerous efforts: For further description of these and other coordinated policies, see Schenk (2011). 324

In addition, the UK mandated: Singleton, John, and Catherine R. Schenk. “The Shift from Sterling to the Dollar, 1965–76: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand.” The Economic History Review 68.4 2015: 1162–1163.

324 The result was that: For more detail on the dynamics of the Sterling Area, see Schenk, Catherine R. Britain and the Sterling Area from Devaluation to Convertibility in the 1950s. Routledge, 1994. 325

Countries that continued to hold: Schenk (2010): 273.

326 AVERAGE SHARE OF POUNDS: Data for these bar charts are from Schenk (2011): 25. 327

The story of Robert Schuman: “Robert Schuman: the Architect of the European Integration Project.” EUROPA. https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/history-eu/eu-pioneers/robertschuman_en.

327

“not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible”: “Robert Schuman.” EUROPA.

328 The pooling of coal and steel: Quotation is from the Schuman Declaration, EUROPA, The Schuman Declaration – 9 May 1950. http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/symbols/europe-day/schumandeclaration/index_en.htm. 329 THE EUROZONE COMPARED TO THE US AND CHINA: This chart was produced primarily based on Bridgewater analysis. Data for GDP per capita was sourced from the World Bank; military spending data primarily from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; patent data from the WIPO statistics database (as of Dec 2020); and Nobel prize data from Encyclopedia Britannica.

CHAPTER 11THE BIG CYCLE RISE AND DECLINE OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE DOLLAR

335 Only two US banks: Cottrell, P.L. “Aspects of Commercial Banking in Northern and Central Europe 1880–1931,” in International Banking in an Age of Transition: Globalisation, Automation, Banks and Their Archives. Edited by Sara Kinsey and Lucy Newton. Ashgate, 1998: 109. 335 Investment banking took off: Bordo, Michael D. and David C. Wheelock. “Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms.” Working Paper 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004: 14–17. 335

in the pre-war period: Evidence of the size of insurance trusts relative to national and state banks during this time can be found in sources like: Moen, Jon, and Ellis W. Tallman. “The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of Trust Companies.” The Journal of Economic History 52.3 (1992).

335

The fact that the US economy: Bordo and Wheelock (2004), 14–17.

336 By 1910, stock market capitalization: This is sourced from internal analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data. 336 New sectors and companies rose: Kauflin, Jeff, and Michael Noer. “America’s Top 50 Companies 1917– 2017.” Forbes, September 27, 2017. 337 The monetary system in the immediate: Eichengreen, Barry. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996. 339 Every nation must choose: Quotation from the Truman Doctrine delivered in a March 1947 speech. “Truman Doctrine.” Avalon Project, Yale Law School. 340 As shown in the following chart: “Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance.” Arms Control Association, October 2021. 341

N UCLEAR WEAPONS STOCKPILE: This chart was produced using data from Roser, Max and Mohamed Nagdy. “Nuclear Weapons” Our World in Data, 2013.

343 By the end of World War II: Federal Reserve Bulletin (1948): 375. 343 As for monetary policy, from 1933 until 1951: Carlson, Mark A. and David C. Wheelock. “Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, 1935–59.” Working Paper 205, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute (2014): 7–13. 344

The post-war recession saw the unemployment: Bohanon, Cecil. “Economic Recovery: Lessons from the Post-World War II Period.” Policy Brief, Mercatus Center; George Mason University (2012).

344

In 1965, only 13 US banks: Houpt, James V. “International Activities of U.S. Banks and in the U.S. Banking Markets.” Federal Reserve Bulletin (1999): 603.

346 A fter 1945, foreign central banks: Elwell, Craig K. “Brief History of the Gold Standard in the United States.” Congressional Research Services (2011): 11–12. 346 As inflation accelerated: Elwell (2011): 12–13. 346

In the summer of 1971: “US tourists hit by dollar crisis.” Golden Daily Transcript, May 6, 1971, 104 edition, sec. 98.

348 The panic out of dollar debt: Kollewe, Julia. “Gold Prices - the Highs and Lows since 1971.” The Guardian, September 17, 2017. 348

If you want to read: Volcker, Paul A., and Toyoo Gyohten. Changing Fortunes: The World’s Money and the Threat to American Leadership. Time Books, 1993.

349

In October 1979, Volcker announced: Carney, John. “A Timely Banking Lesson from the Paul Volcker Era.” CNBC, April 5, 2012.

349 “since Jesus Christ”: Rowen, Hobart. “Rich and Poor Nations to Chart the Future of Lending Agencie.” Washington Post, May 9, 1982. 356 USA INCOME SHARES and USA WEALTH SHARES: These charts based on data from the World Inequality Database. 357 IDEOLOGICAL POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR PARTIES: This chart was produced based on data from Vote View. 357 SHARE OF CONGRESSIONAL MEMBERS’ VOTES CAST ALONG PARTY LINES: This chart was produced based on data from Vote View. 358 USA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE and USA CB BALANCE SHEET: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, including data from Global Financial Data. 359 U NEMPLOYMENT RATE and CB BALANCE SHEET across countries: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, including data from Global Financial Data.

CHAPTER 12THE BIG CYCLE RISE OF CHINA AND THE RENMINBI

364 Socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics: This is an amalgam of two phrases by Deng Xiaoping, “socialist market economy” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics. Cui, Zhiyuan. “Making Sense of the Chinese ‘Socialist Market Economy.’” Modern China 38.6 (November 2012); Wilson, Ian. “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics: China and the Theory of the Initial Stage of Socialism.” Politics 24.1 (1989). 364 The entire report on China’s dynasties: To see this and my other reports, please visit economicprinciples.org. 369 The Tang Dynasty (618–907): Lewis, Mark Edward. “China’s Cosmopolitan Empire: The Tang Dynasty,” in The Cambridge History of China Vol. 8: The Ming Dynasty, 1368–1644 Part 2, edited by Denis Twitchett and Frederick W. Mote, et al. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998: 388–401. 370 during which China: von Glahn (2016): 208–209. 370 a) bring together the different factions: von Glahn (2016): 187–191. 370 These investments in education: von Glahn (2016): 247–248. 371

financial problems: von Glahn (2016): 247–248.

371

For much of his rule: Rossabi, Morris. “The reign of Kubilai khan,” in The Cambridge History of China Vol. 6: Alien Regimes and Border States, 907–1368. Edited by Denis Twitchett and Frederick W. Mote. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994: 414–454.

371 Corruption grew later in his rule: Rossabi (1994): 492–494. 371

It was founded by the Hongwu Emperor: Mote, Frederick W, and Denis Twitchett et al (Eds.) The Cambridge History of China, Vol. 7: The Ming Dynasty, 1368–1644 Part 1. 1st ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998: 48, 49–50, 53, 54.

371 He consolidated power: Mote, Twitchett, et al. (1998): 109. 371

in a 14-year purge: Fairbanks and Goldman (2005): 128.

371 A fter winning power: Mote, Twitchett, et al. (1998): 70. 371 early Ming leaders built: Kerr, Gordon. Short History of China: From Ancient Dynasties to Economic Powerhouse. Oldcastle Books, Ltd., 2013: 80–81. 371 Over time the Ming Dynasty: China and Europe: 1500–1800. 371 A mong the many inventions: von Glahn, Richard. Fountain of Fortune: Money and Monetary Policy in China, 1000–1700. Taipei: SMC Pub., 1997: 51.

as Chinese goods were of superior quality: von Glahn (2016): 308–309.

However, the Ming’s failure: von Glahn (2016): 310–311.

Manchu people capitalized on instability: von Glahn (2016): 311.

China achieved its maximum: von Glahn (2016): 312.

The Europeans came offering: von Glahn (2016): 320–321.

A series of military: von Glahn (2016): 348.

China’s share of world GDP: Kennedy (1988): 149.

376 Growing inequality and fiscal problems: For more details on this topic, see Huang, Ray. China: A Macro History. London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2015. 378 For example, the north is colder, flatter, and drier: MacDonald, Scott B. “China, Food Security and Geopolitics.” The Diplomat, September 30, 2020. 378 For that reason, China: Larson, Christina. “How Resource Scarcity Constrains China.” Bloomberg Businessweek, December 7, 2013. 379

Critique of Pure Reason: Kant, Immanuel. Critique of Pure Reason. Outlook Verlag, 2020.

380 On Practice: Mao, Zedong. On Practice: On the Relation between Knowledge and Practice, between Knowing and Doing. Peking: Foreign Language Press, 1971. 380 On Contradiction: Mao, Zedong. On Contradiction. Peking: Foreign Language Press, 1965. 380

The Little Red Book: Mao, Zedong. Quotations from Chairman Mao, and Related Material. Peking: Foreign Language Press, 1966.

381 modern socialist country: Direct quotation from Xi Jinping’s speech “Secure a Decisive Victory in Building a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Community Party of China, October 18, 2017. 381 The Made in China 2025 plan: McBride, James, and Andrew Chatzky. Is ‘Made in China 2025’ a Threat to Global Trade? Council on Foreign Relations, May 13, 2019. 384 Scholars believe that China: Knapp, Mark. “Chinese Culturalism: The Underlying Factor.” Emory University, 2011. 385 The currency the Chinese used: von Glahn (2016): 289.

385 The graded and concentric hierarchy: This quotation is sourced from Fairbank, John K. The Chinese World Order: Traditional China’s Foreign Relations. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1968: 2. 386

In fact, different parts of China: Irigoin, Alejandra. “The End of a Silver Era: The Consequences of the Breakdown of the Spanish Peso Standard in China and the United States, 1780s–1850s.” Journal of World History 20.2 (2009): 207.

387

At the start of the Tang Dynasty: von Glahn (2016): 187.

387

“Flying cash” started out as: von Glahn (2016): 216.

387

In the early 1100s during the Song Dynasty: von Glahn (1997): 51.

387

Thus began an early version: Huang (2015): 151.

387

By the mid-1100s the financial demands: von Glahn (1997): 52–53.

387

Initially, the monetization of deficits: von Glahn (1997): 51.

387

But the Song government: von Glahn (1997): 52–53.

387

The government office issued: Huang (2015): 151.

388

As internal and external conflicts: von Glahn (2016): 53.

388

As a result, the market value: von Glahn (2016): 53.

388 The Yuan Dynasty: “China in 1000 CE: The Song Economic Revolution.” The Song Dynasty in China. Columbia University: Asia for Educators. 389 Establishing the first stock companies: “China in 1000 CE”, Asia for Educators. 390 Further, China’s support for: For more, please see Huang (2015). 390 Debt grew dramatically during civil unrest: Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. “From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis.” Working Paper 15795, National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2010. Forthcoming in American Economic Review. 390 a fiat paper one for domestic transactions: Shiroyama, Tomoko. China During the Great Depression: Market, State, and the World Economy, 1929–1937. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2008: 183–195.

a gold one for international payments: Miller, Mark David. “Printing China’s gold: The American bank note company and the customs gold units of 1930.” Thesis, UNLV, 2007.

The fiat paper one was printed: Shiroyama (2008): 183–195.

391 A fter the turbulence of World War II: “TIMELINE: The past and present of China’s yuan.” Reuters, April 9, 2010. 391

CHINESE INFLATION: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Allen, Robert C, Jean-Pascal Bassino, Debin Ma, Christine Moll-Murata, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. “Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, 1738–1925: In Comparison with Europe, Japan, and India.” The Economic History Review 64.1 (2011) and the League of Nations.

392 CNY VS USD and GOLD PRICE: These charts were produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Global Financial Data. 392 CHN INFLATION: This chart was produced using internal Bridgewater analysis based in part on data from Allen, Bassino, Ma, Moll-Murata, and van Zanden (2011) and League of Nations 393 The end of World War II in 1945: For a description of the mass forced repatriation throughout Asia after the end of World War II, please see: Watt, Lori. When Empire Comes Home: Repatriation and Reintegration in Postwar Japan. Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Asia Center, 2009: 1–6. 394 The British East India Company wanted tea: von Glahn (2016): 248. 394 The Qing government borrowed heavily: Lim, Seung Hwan. “Chinese Loans 1861–1911.” Research Paper, December 2009. 394 W hen the rebellion failed: Spence, Jonathan. The Search for Modern China. New York: W.W. Norton, 2012. 398 Deng Xiaoping reiterated: This quotation is excerpted from Deng Xiaoping. Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, Vol. 2. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1994. 400 Domestically, the new government: Burdekin, Richard C.K. “Ending Inflation in the People’s Republic of China: From Chairman Mao to the 21st Century.” Working Paper 2000–08, Claremont Colleges, 2000: 223–235. 400 The government also nationalized most: “China’s Great Leap Forward.” Association for Asian Studies, July 13, 2020. 401 The Chinese viewed this as a threat: Brands, H W. “The Redacted Testimony That Fully Explains Why General MacArthur Was Fired.” Smithsonian Magazine, September 28, 2016. 402

Between 1952 and 1957: “China’s Great Leap Forward.”

402 Estimates suggest that over: Field, Robert Michael. “Industrial Production in Communist China: 1957– 1968.” The China Quarterly 42 (1970): 56. 403 estimates range from hundreds of thousands: Ramzy, Austin. “China’s Cultural Revolution, Explained.” The New York Times, May 14, 2016.

403 Henry Kissinger quoted Chinese officials: This is a direct quotation sourced from Kissinger, Henry. On China. London, England: Penguin Books, 2012: 211. 404 acknowledges that all Chinese: Phillips, Steven E. (ed.). Joint Statement Following Discussions With Leaders of the People’s Republic of China, Document 203. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, Volume XVII, China, 1969-1972, Document 203. Office of the Historian, Department of the Historian, United States Department of State. 405

its per capita income was less: “GDP per Capita (Current US$) - China.” The World Bank: Data.

405 “socialist market economy” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics: Cui (2012); Wilson (2012): 665–673. 406 More specifically, he moved: Wang, Zhengxu, and Anastas Vangeli. “The Rules and Norms of Leadership Succession in China: From Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping and Beyond.” The China Journal 76 (2016): 25–27. 410 That year, the United States had more: Leng, Alyssa, and Roland Rajah. “Chart of the Week: Global Trade through a US-China Lens.” The Interpreter, December 18, 2019. 412 W hen he came to power: This is based on Bridgewater analysis, using data from the World Bank and the UN. 412 at the time of his death: “Poverty Headcount Ratio at $1.90 a Day (2011 PPP) (% of Population) - China.” The World Bank: Data. 418

e.g., Made in China 2025: McBride and Chatzky (2019).

418

In 2009 China declared: Ki-Moon, Ban, CML/17/2009 § United Nations, (2009).

419 It has invested heavily: See “The Belt and Road Initiative in the Global Trade, Investment and Finance Landscape.” OECD Business and Finance Outlook, 2018. 419 the largest such program: Li, Xiang, Mengqi Shao, and May Tan-Mullins. “China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Debates, Impacts, and Trends.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies (2021). 421 CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT SINCE 1949: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis based on data from the World Bank and the UN. 421 For example, in a recent ranking: “2020 Academic Ranking of World Universities.” ShanghaiRanking’s Academic Ranking of World Universities. 422

US VS CHINA EDUCATION TABLEThis chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis based in

part on data from the OECD, UNESCO/UIS, Barro-lee, Clio Infra, and the US Treasury.

CHAPTER 13US-CHINA RELATIONS AND WARS

It is because of that destiny: Hussein and Haddad (2021).

430 “undergoing changes not seen in a century”: Quotation from a speech by President Xi at the hundredth year anniversary of the Chinese Community Party, as cited by “Upbeat Xi Says Time on China’s Side as Turmoil Grips U.S.” Bloomberg News, January 11, 2021. 430 “[i]n the face of an external environment”: Quotation from a speech by President Xi at a symposium with entrepreneurs in July 2021 as cited in Lanxu, Zhou, and Cheng Yu. “Dual Circulation at Heart of Economic Strategy.” China Daily, March 5, 2021. 431 The largest public Chinese tech companies: Protska, Olga. “Top 10 World’s Most Valuable Technology Companies in 2021.” FXSSI, October 10, 2021. 431

Consider that 40 percent of the world’s Jun, Xie, and Xiong Xinyi. “Chinese Supercomputers Hold onto Supremacy despite US Squeeze.” Global Times, July 4, 2021.

431 As for providing people: McCarthy, Niall. “The Countries With The Most STEM Graduates.” IndustryWeek, February 6, 2017. 432 One in five North America-based: Rosenbaum, Eric. “1 In 5 Corporations Say China Has Stolen Their IP within the Last Year: CNBC CFO Survey.” CNBC: CFO Council, March 1, 2019. 437 “Looking at the world at large”: Quotation from President Xi’s 2019 New Year’s address, President Xi Jinping. “2019 New Year Speech.” Speech presented through China Media Group and online on December 31, 2018 at https://youtu.be/EJcxCxi8T_E. 439 natural resources and military equipment: O’Hanlon, Michael E, and Adam Twardowski. Unpacking the China-Russia ‘Alliance’. Brookings, December 13, 2019. 441 As of 2019, there were approximately: Gilsinan, Kathy. “A Boom Time for U.S. Sanctions.” The Atlantic, May 3, 2019. 442 The roughly $1 trillion of US debt: Pesek, William. “China’s $1.1 Trillion Bet on U.S. Treasuries Still Getting Trumped.” Forbes, October 8, 2021. 442

$28 trillion outstanding: “Historical Debt Outstanding.” U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data. United States Treasury.

443

For example, Russia and China: Gilsinan (2019).

446 China is now militarily stronger: For example, see Cardenas, Nicky C. “Military Competition between the United States and China in the South China Sea: A Critical Analysis.” Expeditions with MCUP, July 2020.

Such a culture clash took place: Yglesias, Matthew. “The Raging Controversy over the NBA, China, and the Hong Kong Protests, Explained.” Vox, October 7, 2019.

455 For example, in a recent Pew survey: Silver, Laura, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang. “Americans Fault China for Its Role in the Spread of COVID-19.” Pew Research Center, July 30, 2020. 459 By and large we will: Deserve Victory. Photograph. Museum of World War II. London, Museum of World War II.

CHAPTER 14THE FUTURE

465 GLOBAL POPULATION This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis based in part on data from the World Bank. 466 GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis based in part on data from the World Bank. 466 GLOBAL LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Our World in Data and the UN for the front history, extended back based on data from Clio Infra and Gapminder. The 2020 point is based on countries that had reported data for the year as of August 2021. 467 GLOBAL RGDP PER CAPITA (LOG) and GLOBAL RGDP PER CAPITA (2017 USD): Global RGDP is primarily a mix of European countries before 1870 due to limited reliable data coverage across other countries before that point. These charts combine spliced estimates at a country level for major countries. The analysis is based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and from Fouquet and Broadberry (2015). Specific country series, many found via Fouquet and Broadberry, include: for the UK, “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data,” as well as Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, and van Leeuwen (2015). For NLD, van Zanden and van Leeuwen (2015). For ITA, Malanima (2011). For ESP, Alvarez-Nogal and de la Escosura (2013). For SWE, Schön and Krantz (2013). For PRT, Palma, and Reis (2014). For CHN, Broadberry (2013) as well as Deng and O’Brien (2013). 467 GLOBAL REAL WEALTH PER CAPITA: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Shorrocks, Anthony, James Davies, and Rodrigo Lluberas. Global Wealth Report 2021. Credit Suisse: Research Institute, June 2021, and World Inequality Database. Note from the author: Because there are not good records prior to 1900, I can’t give you the picture of wealth before then. 470 GLOBAL RGDP PER CAPITA DRAWDOWNS: Global RGDP is primarily a mix of European countries before 1870 due to limited reliable data coverage across other countries before that point. These charts combine spliced estimates at a country level for major countries. The analysis is based in part on data from Maddison Historical Statistics and from Fouquet and Broadberry (2015). Specific country series, many found via Fouquet and Broadberry, include: for the UK, “A Millennium of Macroeconomic Data,” as well as Broadberry, Campbell, Klein, Overton, and van Leeuwen (2015). For NLD, van Zanden and van Leeuwen (2015). For ITA, Malanima (2011). For ESP, Alvarez-Nogal and de la Escosura (2013). For SWE, Schön and Krantz (2013). For PRT, Palma, and Reis (2014). For CHN, Broadberry (2013) as well as Deng and O’Brien (2013). 471 GLOBAL REAL WEALTH PER CAPITA DRAWDOWNS: Bridgewater analysis, based in part on data from Shorrocks, Davies, and Lluberas (2021) and World Inequality Database. Note from the author: Because there are not good records prior to 1900, I can’t give you the picture of wealth before then. 471 GLOBAL DEATHS BY CATEGORY: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on analysis of death counts from major events using data from various online encyclopedias, including

Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica. 472 ESTIMATED DEATHS FROM CONFLICT: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on analysis of death counts from major events using data from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica. 480 Luo Guanzhong’s classic book: Luo, Guanzhong. San Kuo, or, Romance of the Three Kingdoms: An English Version of San Kuo Chi Yen I. Translated by C. H. Brewitt-Taylor. Shanghai: Kelly & Walsh, 1929. 482 For example, in a 2019 Pew survey: Partisan Antipathy: More Intense, More Personal. Pew Research Center, October 10, 2019. 482 A nother study reported that: Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization and Key Issues in 2020 Presidential Elections. PRRI, October 20, 2019. 482 A 2010 study showed that: Iyengar, S., G. Sood, and Y. Lelkes. “Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization.” Public Opinion Quarterly 76.4 (2012): 416–418. 483 That compares with about: Iyengar, Sood, and Lelkes (2012): 416–418. 483 One recent survey showed that: Kalmoe, Nathan P, and Liliana Mason. Lethal Mass Partisanship: Prevalence, Correlates, & Electoral Contingencies. NCAPSA American Politics Meeting, January 2019: 22. 483

In 1919, over 20 percent: “Postwar Labor Tensions.” Digital History, 2021.

487 There have been just over 50: Pinker, Steven. The Better Angels of Our Nature: The Decline of Violence in History and Its Causes. London: Allen Lane, 2011: 225. 487

Eighty percent of the years: Pinker (2011): 229.

490

As Graham Allison explained: Allison, Graham T. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017: vii.

490

and big military buildups were: This is based on internal Bridgewater analysis using data from Allison.

490 We may be seeing such a buildup: This is based on internal Bridgewater analysis as well as data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 491 GLOBAL DEATHS BY CATEGORY: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on analysis of death counts from major events using data from various online encyclopedias, including Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica. 492 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHARTS: PAGES 2K Consortium. “Consistent Multidecadal Variability in Global Temperature Reconstructions and Simulations over the Common Era.” Nature Geoscience 12.8 (2019): 643–649. GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN TEMPERATURE: This chart was produced using data from the NOAA and IAC Switzerland.

492 N UMBER OF NATURAL CATASTROPHIC EVENTS: “sigma 1/2021 - Natural catastrophes in 2020.” Swiss Re Institute, January 2021. 493

TOTAL LOSSES FROM CATASTROPHES“Sigma 1/2021” (2021).

494 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY: This chart was produced using Bridgewater analysis, based on data from Notre Dame and “The economics of climate change.” Swiss Re Institute, April 22, 2021.