附录 · 原始资料与证据

完整来源与证据等级

本附录说明全书的取证规则,并按材料类型编目本书使用的全部 77 件材料(合计 1,537,518 字符,2011—2026)。它是来源索引,不是第三方全文转载;每一行都给出可回源的原始链接,证据等级与归档状态会随新原件更新。

一、证据分级

  • A1 本人或本人任职机构正式发布的原始文字,可逐字引用。
  • A2 带日期的官方转录或第一方记录(电视台官方文字稿、国会证词转录),可引用但须标明转录性质。
  • B1 可核验的第三方转录或转载,仅在无 A 级原件时使用,并注明来源与已知讹误。
  • C 数据附件、监管备案与第三方特写。只作旁证与交叉核对,不作为他本人的话引用。

二、取证边界

四处结构性缺口决定了这本书的写法。其一,他管理杜肯与量子的二十九年里没有任何投资人通信,也没有留存的实时交易记录——所有材料非退隐后回述,即电视上的当期时评。其二,同一件事在不同年份讲,数字会漂(1999 年翻红 +35% 还是 +42%、量子 70 亿还是 75 亿),本书按出处并列,不取平均、不假装精确。其三,61 份 13F 只含美股多头,系统性漏掉他自称赚了七成的债、汇、外股与空头,只能作有限旁证。其四,Lost Tree 2015 是图像 PDF 机器转录、In Good Company 2024 是自动字幕稿,关键引文入稿前均按勘误校正。

三、材料编目

13F 持仓报告(61 件 · 2011—2026 · 约 1,122,528 字符)

年份 材料 等级 字符
2026 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2026-03-31 C 29,631
2025 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2025-12-31 C 26,527
2025 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2025-09-30 C 27,592
2025 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2025-06-30 C 29,138
2025 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2025-03-31 C 22,670
2024 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2024-12-31 C 32,674
2024 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2024-09-30 C 31,381
2024 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2024-06-30 C 27,130
2024 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2024-03-31 C 30,588
2023 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2023-12-31 C 22,141
2023 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2023-09-30 C 18,298
2023 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2023-06-30 C 22,861
2023 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2023-03-31 C 20,967
2022 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2022-12-31 C 24,921
2022 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2022-09-30 C 27,473
2022 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2022-06-30 C 19,020
2022 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2022-03-31 C 22,106
2021 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR/A, holdings as of 2021-06-30 C 3,696
2021 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR/A, holdings as of 2021-03-31 C 3,696
2021 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2021-12-31 C 21,329
2021 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2021-09-30 C 21,331
2021 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2021-06-30 C 21,269
2021 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2021-03-31 C 25,930
2020 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2020-12-31 C 24,025
2020 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2020-09-30 C 25,963
2020 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2020-06-30 C 30,073
2020 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2020-03-31 C 20,146
2019 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2019-12-31 C 26,231
2019 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2019-09-30 C 18,947
2019 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2019-06-30 C 25,760
2019 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2019-03-31 C 25,760
2018 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2018-12-31 C 14,349
2018 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2018-09-30 C 17,803
2018 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2018-06-30 C 15,188
2018 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2018-03-31 C 10,998
2017 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2017-12-31 C 13,998
2017 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2017-09-30 C 16,697
2017 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2017-06-30 C 15,600
2017 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2017-03-31 C 20,458
2016 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2016-12-31 C 14,780
2016 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2016-09-30 C 18,183
2016 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2016-06-30 C 14,411
2016 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2016-03-31 C 15,222
2015 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2015-12-31 C 7,582
2015 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2015-09-30 C 9,868
2015 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2015-06-30 C 13,696
2015 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2015-03-31 C 13,319
2014 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2014-12-31 C 15,914
2014 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2014-09-30 C 16,318
2014 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2014-06-30 C 20,231
2014 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2014-03-31 C 10,683
2013 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR/A, holdings as of 2013-06-30 C 9,434
2013 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2013-12-31 C 18,713
2013 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2013-09-30 C 13,381
2013 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2013-06-30 C 9,072
2013 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2013-03-31 C 8,183
2012 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2012-12-31 C 7,722
2012 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2012-09-30 C 9,115
2012 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2012-06-30 C 7,834
2012 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2012-03-31 C 7,951
2011 Duquesne Family Office LLC — Form 13F-HR, holdings as of 2011-12-31 C 6,551

访谈(9 件 · 2015—2024 · 约 250,171 字符)

年份 材料 等级 字符
2024 In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen (NBIM) — ‘Inside the mind of a legendary investor’ A2 48,967
2024 CNBC transcript — Druckenmiller on Squawk Box (Nvidia trim, Argentina, Fed) A2 29,688
2023 CNBC transcript — Druckenmiller on Squawk Box (‘drunken sailors’) A2 29,001
2022 CNBC transcript — Druckenmiller with Joe Kernen, Delivering Alpha conference A2 24,465
2019 CNBC excerpts — Stanley Druckenmiller on Squawk Box A2 30,475
2017 CNBC transcript — Stanley Druckenmiller with Kelly Evans A2 18,976
2016 CNBC excerpts — Stanley Druckenmiller on Squawk Box (post-election) A2 7,744
2015 Full Bloomberg TV interview — transcript B1 43,063
2015 CNBC transcript — Duquesne Capital founder Stan Druckenmiller with Kelly Evans, Closing Bell A2 17,792

演讲(6 件 · 2015—2023 · 约 164,170 字符)

年份 材料 等级 字符
2023 Keynote, 37th USC Marshall Center for Investment Studies Annual Meeting A1 12,391
2020 The Economic Club of New York — May 2020 conversation A2 37,565
2019 The Economic Club of New York, 507th Meeting — in conversation with Scott Bessent A2 49,636
2016 The Endgame — Sohn Investment Conference keynote (transcript) A1 11,038
2015 Lost Tree Club talk — plain-text transcription (incl. Langone Q&A) A2 50,244
2015 Lost Tree Club speech — reposted text B1 3,296

演示幻灯(1 件 · 2016 · 约 649 字符)

年份 材料 等级 字符
2016 The Endgame — Sohn Investment Conference keynote (slide deck) A1 649

本表按本库归档时的材料类型分组,同一场活动的不同载体(文字稿与幻灯)分列。正文每章末尾的「本章依据」逐条标明所用材料与证据等级。

本站正文为基于公开材料的独立编辑与研究归纳,不替代原始资料,也不构成投资建议。