失树俱乐部演讲——转载文本

2015 · 演讲 · 原文约 462 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒发表了一篇非常精彩的演讲，他或许是有史以来最杰出的宏观交易员。话题范围广泛，其中包含了他如何进入这个行业以及对市场看法的一些洞见。

A very interesting speech from Stanley Druckenmiller, probably the best macro trader of all time. Wide ranging topics with some insights into how got into the business and thinks about markets.

“永远不要低估复利的力量、熊市年份的破坏性、税收的影响以及绝对回报。”——山姆·里夫斯（介绍德鲁肯米勒）

“Never underestimate the compounding, the power of it; the damage of down years; the impact of taxes; absolute returns.” – Sam Reeves (introducing Druckenmiller)

“如果你在职业生涯早期，面前有选择：一位伟大的导师，或者更高的薪水，每一次都要选择导师。”——S.D.

“If your early in your career and they give the choice of a great mentor or higher pay, take the mentor every time.” -S.D.

“我刚入行时，听到的第一句话，不是来自我的导师，而是‘多头赚钱，空头赚钱，而猪会被宰杀。’ 今天我要告诉你们，我曾经就是那头猪。而且我坚信，在这个行业里，想要获得长期超额回报的唯一方法，就是做一头猪。我认为，如今商学院里教的那套分散投资以及其他所有东西，可能是最普遍的错误理念。”——S.D.

“The first thing I heard when I got in the business, not from my mentor, was ‘bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered.’ I’m here to tell you I was a pig. And I strongly believe the only way to make long-term returns in our business that are superior is by being a pig. I think diversification and all the stuff they’re teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere.” -S.D.

“……要关注央行，关注流动性动向，而市场中的大多数人都在寻找盈利数据和常规指标。是流动性在推动市场。”——S.D.

“…focus on central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity, that most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.” -S.D.

“……在我们赚到的巨额、巨额的利润中，大约 80% 来自于熊市和股市，因为在那个 30 年期间，疯狂的事情总是在我称之为央行犯错之后发生。”——S.D.

“…about 80% of the big, big money we made as in bear markets and equities because crazy things were going on in response to what I would call central bank mistakes during that 30-year period.” -S.D.

其中还有一段精彩的总结，讲述了德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯“做空英国央行”的交易，以及一个关于美联储过度宽松政策所带来意外后果的有趣部分（4 年后，在最近降息 25 个基点后，历史性的宽松政策正变得更为宽松！）。

There is also a good summary of Druckenmiller and Soros’ trade that “broke the bank of England” and also an interesting section on unintended consequences of overly loose Fed policy (which 4 years later is now going from still loose historically to even looser with the recent 1/4 point cut!).

以下是完整的文字记录。他的部分从第 10 页开始。

Here is the full transcript. His section starts on page 10.

斯坦·德鲁肯米勒致失落之树俱乐部

Stan Druckenmiller Ltr Lost Tree