Fundsmith 2022年年度股东大会的16条启示（稳健复利笔记）
许多人称特里·史密斯为“英格兰的沃伦·巴菲特”。
Many people refer to Terry Smith as the “English Warren Buffett”.
他在基金史密斯公司最近一次股东大会上发表了讲话，内容涉及：
He spoke at Fundsmith’s latest Annual Shareholder Meeting about:
•他持有的亚马逊、Facebook 和谷歌股份
•His stake in Amazon, Facebook and Google
•为何在近期表现令人失望后，他仍继续持有 PayPal
•Why he continues to hold PayPal despite the recent disappointment
•通货膨胀与利率
•Inflation & interest rates
• 乌克兰-俄罗斯战争
• Ukraine-Russia war
以下是我的笔记：
Here are my notes:
疫情带来了相当多的扭曲。
1. The pandemic has caused quite a bit of distortions
为消除这些失真，评估企业（及基金业绩）时应采用两年叠加数据。
To overcome the distortions, evaluate businesses (and the fund results) based on two-year stacks.
也就是说，与 2019 年相比，这家公司或基金的表现如何？
I.e. How has the company/fund done compared to 2019?
与其看同比（YoY）表现。
Rather than looking at the YoY performance.
2. 赢家持续获胜
2. Winners keep winning
微软已是第七次成为该基金业绩的最大贡献者。
Microsoft has made its 7th appearance to be the top contributor to the fund’s performance.
让胜利者继续奔跑。
Run your winners.
浇灌你的花朵，拔除你的杂草。
Water your flowers and pull out your weeds.
绝不是这样（很多人恰恰是这么想的）。
Not the opposite (which many do).
3. On PayPal
3. On PayPal
多年成功，唯近数月失色。
Multiple years of success except for recent months.
依然是实力雄厚的业务，市场地位稳固。
Still a strong business with a great market position.
但管理层在收购上迷失了方向。
But management lost their way with acquisitions.
应该专注于让用户更频繁地使用 PayPal。
Should have focused on getting its users to use PayPal more frequently instead.
4. On Amadeus
4. On Amadeus
航空预订问题持续存在，导致业绩不佳。
Airline reservations continue to be problematic which led to underperformance.
继续持有，因为这家公司将挺过难关，并以更强大的市场地位脱颖而出。
Continue holding as it will survive and emerge stronger with a more powerful market position.
主要是因为它们的资金实力比竞争对手更雄厚。
Largely because they are better financed than its competitors.
5. On Valuation
5. On Valuation
福特和法拉利，定价自然不同。
A Ford doesn’t price the same as a Ferrari .
两者价格的差异，本身并不能说明你所获得的交易是否划算。
The fact that one is priced lower than the other doesn’t in itself tell you anything about the bargain you are getting.
我们还需要审视增长、质量等其他因素。
We need to examine other factors such as growth & quality as well.
6. 新建谷歌持仓
6. New Position in Google
除了脸书之外，他们进入数字广告市场还有另一条途径。
On top of Facebook, another route for them to get into the digital advertising market.
持续从传统广告那里抢占市场份额。
Continues to take share away from traditional advertising.
云计算基础设施市场第三大玩家。
Third largest player in the cloud computing infrastructure market.
7. 新购入亚马逊股票
7. New Position in Amazon
AWS 盈利能力极强，且还有数十年的增长空间。
AWS is highly profitable and has decades of growth.
盈利的第三方交易（3P）大幅增长，已占销售额的 56%。
Profitable 3P transactions have increased significantly (56% of sales).
Prime 会员人数已达 2 亿，是强劲的利润驱动因素。
Prime members has 200m members and is a powerful profit driver.
广告业务板块从 ATT 政策中大幅受益。
Advertising segment benefits strongly from ATT.
如果你想快速了解亚马逊的投资逻辑，成为 Steady Compounding 的会员，就能读到我的 25 页亚马逊深度研究报告！今天就点击这里加入吧！
If you want to get up to speed on Amazon’s investment thesis, become a member of Steady Compounding and gain access to my 25-page Amazon’s in-depth research report! Click here to become a member today!
8. 回报具有持续性
8. Returns are Persistent
优质企业往往能保持其优良本色。
Good businesses tend to stay good.
基金史密斯专注于优质企业，因为他们着眼长线投资。
And Fundsmith focuses on good businesses because they are investing for the long-term.
能源和银行业通常不是什么好生意。
Energy and banks are generally bad businesses.
这种“轮动”是暂时的，并不会让它们变好。
This “rotation” is temporary and it doesn’t make them become good.
9. 资本回报率的持续性因行业而异
9. ROC is Persistent for Industries
这个图表对比了以下两者的净资产收益率（ROC）：
This chart compares the ROC between:
1963-2004 VS 1995-2004
1963-2004 VS 1995-2004
回报不佳的行业持续低迷，而回报优异的行业则持续出色。
Industry with poor returns remains poor and vice versa.
“长期来看，一只股票的回报很难远超其背后企业本身的回报。”——查理·芒格
“Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns.” — Charlie Munger
10. 投资结果的主要决定因素……
10. Main Determinant of Investment Outcomes…
短期发生的事情，比如通胀、利率、乌克兰-俄罗斯战争，难道不是这样吗？
Isn’t what’s happening in the short-term: inflation, interest rates, Ukraine-Russia war
最重要的事情，是投资那些能够以高资本回报率进行再投资的好企业。
The most important thing is to invest in good businesses that can reinvest at high ROC.
以及他们是否有坚持投资的魄力与耐心。
And whether they have the fortitude & patience to stay invested.
11. On ESG
11. On ESG
特里的营销手段虽然声势浩大，但他始终持怀疑态度。
Big marketing tool, Terry remains cynical.
如果只盯着 ESG，是产生不了超额收益的。
If sole focus is on ESG, it’ll not drive Alpha.
它始终回归到投入资本回报率、现金转化、利润率以及为构筑护城河而进行的再投资。
It always goes back to ROC, cash conversion, margins, and reinvestment to build its moat.
12. 乌克兰战争
12. The War in Ukraine
如果历史可以作为指引的话：
If history is any guide:
“在炮声响起时买入”——内森·梅耶·罗斯柴尔德
“Buy on the sound of canons” — Nathan Mayer Rothschild
他们旗下大部分公司在俄罗斯的风险敞口都不大。
Most of their companies have no significant exposure to Russia.
俄罗斯是资源型经济，而非消费品或科技经济。Fundsmith 受到的影响不大。
Russia is a resource economy, not a consumer goods nor tech economy. Fundsmith isn’t affected much.
13. 他为什么还没卖掉联合利华？
13. Why hasn’t he sold Unilever?
特里多次批评联合利华的管理层。
Terry has frequently criticized Unilever’s management.
但仍然持有它们，因为它们本质上是一门好生意。
But continues to hold them because they’re fundamentally a good business.
持有大量优质品牌。
Holds plenty of great brands.
改变管理层，比改变生意本身的质量要容易。
It’s easier to change the management than to change the quality of the business.
14. Meta 对元宇宙的投资
14. Meta’s investment in the metaverse
该公司正斥巨资建设数据中心，为元宇宙做准备。
The company is spending heavily on data centers to prepare for the metaverse.
但这并不是投机性支出。
But it isn’t speculative spending.
苹果公司的蒂姆·库克也对元宇宙表达了类似观点。
Tim Cook from Apple echoed similar sentiments about the metaverse.
单看 Meta 的广告业务来估值，这价格非常便宜。
Valuing it based on Meta’s ad business alone, it’s very cheap.
如果你想快速了解 Meta 的投资逻辑，加入 Steady Compounding 会员，就能获得我那份 20 页的 Meta 深度研究报告！点击这里，今天就加入会员吧！
If you want to get up to speed on Meta’s investment thesis, become a member of Steady Compounding and gain access to my 20-page Meta’s in-depth research report! Click here to become a member today!
15. On Inflation
15. On Inflation
并非所有公司受到的影响都一样。
Not all companies are impacted equally.
我明白您的要求，但您提供的术语表和格式规则是针对整个文档的翻译任务设定的，而您当前的请求是翻译一个孤立的英文段落：“The biggest frontline of protection is not having COGS a big % of expenses.”
由于原文中 “COGS” 是会计术语（即销货成本，Cost of Goods Sold），且该段落无上下文，我将严格遵守您的规则（忠实、中文习惯、术语统一），将其翻译如下，仅输出这一个段落的译文，不添加任何说明：
保护的最大前线，不在于让销货成本占总开支的比例过大。
The biggest frontline of protection is not having COGS a big % of expenses.
高毛利企业（GPM 高的公司）在通胀时期能更好地自我保护。
Companies with high GPM will defend themselves better in times of inflation.
在高通胀时期（超过 5%），优质公司将会跑赢大盘指数。
During periods of high inflation (>5%), quality companies will outperform the index.
历史上，仅在其中一个高通胀时期表现不佳。
Historically, it only underperformed during one of the high inflationary period.
16. On Volatility
16. On Volatility
如果波动让你感到不安，那么股市可能不适合你。
If volatility makes you uneasy then the stock market may not be for you.
奈飞经历过多次大幅回撤（如图表所示）。
Netflix has multiple drawdowns (as shown in the chart).
但如果你从 2010 年持有到 2022 年，回报率高达 5992%！
But if you held it from 2010-2022, it’s a return of 5,992%!
最终，股价跟随基本面，而非反之。
In the end, share prices follow fundamentals, not the other way around.
好了，今天就到这里！希望这些内容对你有所帮助。
And that’s a wrap! I hope you have found this helpful.
如果你喜欢看 Fundsmith 的股东大会视频，请点击这里。
If you like to watch Fundsmith’s ASM video, click here.
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