1961 年中致合伙人信(1961-07)
巴菲特合伙有限公司
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
基维特广场 810 号
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
内布拉斯加州,奥马哈 31
OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
1961 年 7 月
July, 1961
致各位合伙人
TO MY PARTNERS
过去有合伙人评论说,一年才写一封信“间隔太久了”,要是能半年写一封倒是个好主意。一年找两次话题来写,确实不该太难;至少今年不难。于是就有了这封信,往后每年都会照此办理。1961 年上半年,道琼斯工业平均指数含股息在内的总涨幅约为 13%。虽然这类市况本应是我们最难跑赢这一基准的时候,但所有完整运作满六个月的合伙基金,业绩都略优于指数。1961 年内成立的合伙基金,自成立之日起,业绩要么与指数持平,要么超越指数,主要取决于运作时间长短。不过,有两点我要着重强调。第一,一年时间太短,完全不足以对投资表现形成任何判断,而基于六个月的衡量就更不可靠了。我之所以有点不愿写半年信,一个原因是担心合伙人可能会开始以短期表现来考量,而短期表现最具误导性。我自己的思考更侧重于五年期的表现,最好辅以在强市和弱市中的相对业绩检验。第二点我希望人人都明白:如果市场延续 1961 年上半年的上涨速度,我不仅怀疑我们能否继续跑赢道指,而且我们的业绩很可能会落后于指数。我一向认为,与一般投资组合相比,我们的持仓偏于保守,而随着大盘整体水位上涨,持仓会愈发趋于保守。在任何时候,我都力求让组合中有一部分证券至少在一定程度上免受市场波动的直接影响,而这一部分应随着市场上涨而增加。眼下行情诱人,连业余厨师都跃跃欲试(或许业余人士尤其如此),我们却发现,组合里更多的菜并没有上灶。我们还在公开市场上着手买进一项潜在的重仓股,我当然希望它在未来至少一年里,行情上毫无作为。这样的投入可能会拖累短期业绩,但极有希望在数年之内带来出众的回报,同时兼具很强的防御特性。将所有合伙基金在年底合并的工作已取得进展。我就这一目标与过去一年多里加入的所有合伙人谈过,也与所有更早成立的合伙基金的代表合伙人过了一遍方案。
In the past, partners have commented that a once-a-year letter was “a long time between drinks,” and that a semi-annual letter would be a good idea. It really shouldn’t be too difficult to find something to say twice a year; at least it isn’t this year. Hence, this letter which will be continued in future years. During the first half of 1961, the overall gain of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average was about 13%, including dividends. Although this is the type of period when we should have the most difficulty in exceeding this standard, all partnerships that operated throughout the six months did moderately better then the Average. Partnerships formed during 1961 either equaled or exceeded results of the Average from the time of formation, depending primarily on how long they were in operation. Let me, however, emphasize two points. First, one year is far too short a period to form any kind of an opinion as to investment performance, and measurements based upon six months become even more unreliable. One factor that has caused some reluctance on my part to write semi-annual letters is the fear that partners may begin to think in terms of short-term performance which can be most misleading. My own thinking is much more geared to five year performance, preferably with tests of relative results in both strong and weak markets. The second point I want everyone to understand is that if we continue in a market which advances at the pace of the first half of 1961, not only do I doubt that we will continue to exceed the results of the DJIA, but it is very likely that our performance will fall behind the Average. Our holdings, which I always believe to be on the conservative side compared to general portfolios, tend to grow more conservative as the general market level rises. At all times, I attempt to have a portion of our portfolio in securities as least partially insulated from the behavior of the market, and this portion should increase as the market rises. However appetizing results for even the amateur cook (and perhaps particularly the amateur), we find that more of our portfolio is not on the stove. We have also begun open market acquisition of a potentially major commitment which I, of course, hope does nothing marketwise for at least a year. Such a commitment may be a deterrent to short range performance, but it gives strong promise of superior results over a several year period combined with substantial defensive characteristics. Progress has been made toward combining all partners at yearend. I have talked with all partners joining during this past year or so about this goal, and have also gone over the plans with representative partners of all earlier partnerships
其中一些条款如下:
Some of the provisions will be:
(A)所有合伙基金按年末市值进行合并,并订立条款,就年末未实现收益所对应的未来纳税义务,在合伙人之间妥善分摊。合并本身免税,也不会加速利润的实现;
(A) A merger of all partnerships, based on market value at yearend, with provisions for proper allocation among partners of future tax liability due to unrealized gains at yearend. The merger itself will be taxfree, and will result in no acceleration of realization of profits;
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(B)有限合伙人与普通合伙人之间的利润划分:以年初的市值资本为基数,合伙人每年先取得 6% 的收益;超出部分,四分之一归普通合伙人,四分之三按出资比例分给所有合伙人。任何不足 6% 的收益缺口将结转、用以抵减未来收益,但不会回溯用于抵减过往收益。目前,新加入的合伙人可以在三种利润
(B) A division of profits between the limited partners and general partner, with the first 6% per year to partners based upon beginning capital at market, and any excess divided one-fourth to the general partner and three-fourths to all partners proportional to their capital. Any deficiencies in earnings below the 6% would be carried forward against future earnings, but would not be carried back. Presently, there are three profit
分配安排中自行选择:
arrangements which have been optional to incoming partners:
(1) (2) (3)
(1) (2) (3)
利息条款 6% 4% 无
Interest Provision 6% 4% None
普通合伙人超额分成 1/3 1/4 1/6
Excess to Gen. Partner 1/3 1/4 1/6
有限合伙人超额分成 2/3 3/4 5/6
Excess to Ltd. Partners 2/3 3/4 5/6
在盈利的情况下,新分配方案对有限合伙人显然将优于前两种安排。至于第三种安排,当年回报率在 18% 以内时,新方案更优;但超过这一水平,有限合伙人在现有协议下会更划算。目前,约 80% 的合伙资产选择了前两种安排,我希望,倘若我们的年均回报率能超过 18%,目前采用第三种安排的合伙人届时也不会觉得新协议让自己吃了亏;(C)在亏损的情况下,不会向后回溯、用过去已计入我作为普通合伙人的收益来抵减,但亏损可以结转,用于冲抵未来的超额收益。不过,我和我妻子将是新合伙基金中最大的单一投资者,大概占合伙总资产的六分之一,因而一旦亏损,我们承担的美元损失将超过任何其他合伙人或家族。我将把一条款写入合伙协议,禁止我本人或我的家人购买任何上市证券。换句话说,新合伙基金将代表我在上市证券上的全部投资操作,这样一来,我的投资结果必然与各位的结果直接成正比,只不过若我们跑赢 6%,我能得到前述好处而已;(D)一条按月支付、年率 6% 的条款,以年初的市值资本为基数计算。不想当期取款的合伙人,这笔钱会自动转为他的一笔预付款,按 6% 计息,并可在年末用于购买额外的合伙权益。这将解决合并道路上此前一直存在的一个障碍,因为许多合伙人希望定期取款,而另一些合伙人则希望将所有收益再投资;(E)年内可按 6% 的利率借款,借款上限为你合伙权益价值的 20%,此类贷款须在年末或更早时候偿还。这将为目前只能在年末处置的投资增添一定流动性。设立这一条款,并非意在让非长期资金投入合伙基金,我们也无意将合伙基金办成一家银行。准确地说,我预计这将是一个较少被用到的条款,只有当意外发生,等到年末再变现部分或全部合伙权益会造成困难时,它才能派上用场;(F)约定日后合伙基金报税时若出现任何相对较小的税务调整,将直接由我承担。这样一来,我们就不必因为一些小问题,去劳烦八十位甚至更多合伙人修改各自早先的报税表。照目前的状况,一个小小的变动,例如认定合伙基金收到的某笔股息含有 63% 的资本返还而非 68%,都可能引发大量的文书工作。为避免这种情况,任何所引起的税额变动不足 1,000 美元的调整,将直接由我承担。我们已将拟定的协议提交华盛顿,以争取裁定合并免税,且该合伙基金在税法下按合伙企业处理。所有这些工作虽然繁重,却会让未来的事情大为简化。你可以把这封信保留好,作为收到年内晚些时候的协议时的参考文件,比照阅读。
In the event of profits, the new division will obviously have to be better for limited partners than the first two arrangements. Regarding the third, the new arrangement will be superior up to 18% per year; but above this rate the limited partners would do better under the present agreement. About 80% of total partnership assets have selected the first two arrangements, and I am hopeful, should we average better than 18% yearly, partners presently under the third arrangement will not feel short-changed under the new agreement; (C) In the event of losses, there will be no carry back against amounts previously credited to me as general partner. Although there will be a carry-forward against future excess earnings. However, my wife and I will have the largest single investment in the new partnership, probably about one-sixth of total partnership assets, and thereby a greater dollar stake in losses than any other partner of family group, I am inserting a provision in the partnership agreement which will prohibit the purchase by me or my family of any marketable securities. In other words, the new partnership will represent my entire investment operation in marketable securities, so that my results will have to be directly proportional to yours, subject to the advantage I obtain if we do better than 6%; (D) A provision for monthly payments at the rate of 6% yearly, based on beginning of the year capital valued at market. Partners not wishing to withdraw money currently can have this credited back to them automatically as an advance payment, drawing 6%, to purchase an additional equity interest in the partnership at yearend. This will solve one stumbling block that has heretofore existed in the path of consolidation, since many partners desire regular withdrawals and others wish to plow everything back; (E) The right to borrow during the year, up to 20% of the value of your partnership interest, at 6%, such loans to be liquidated at yearend or earlier. This will add a degree of liquidity to an investment which can now only be disposed of at yearend. It is not intended that anything but relatively permanent funds be invested in the partnership, and we have no desire to turn it into a bank. Rather, I expect this to be a relatively unused provision, which is available when something unexpected turns up and a wait until yearend to liquidate part of all of a partner’s interest would cause hardship; (F) An arrangement whereby any relatively small tax adjustment, made in later years on the partnership’s return will be assessed directly to me. This way, we will not be faced with the problem of asking eighty people, or more, to amend their earlier return over some small matter. As it stands now, a small change, such as a decision that a dividend received by the partnership has 63% a return of capital instead of 68%, could cause a multitude of paper work. To prevent this, any change amounting to less than $1,000 of tax will be charged directly to me. We have submitted the proposed agreement to Washington for a ruling that the merger would be taxfree, and that the partnership would be treated as a partnership under the tax laws. While all of this is a lot of work, it will make things enormously easier in the future. You might save this letter as a reference to read in conjunction with the agreement which you will receive later in the year.
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新合伙人目前的最低投资额为 25,000 美元,当然,此规定不适用于现有合伙人。我们的运作方式允许合伙人在年末以任意金额(以 100 美元的整数倍为单位)追加投资或提取资金。合伙基金的预估总资产将在 400 万美元左右,这使我们能够考虑像本信前文所提及的那类投资,而在几年前,我们只能错过。这封信写下来,倒比我的年度信还要耗费心力了。如果你有任何疑问,尤其是关于我对新合伙协议阐述中不清楚的任何地方,请务必告知。如果问题较多,我会给所有的合伙人再写一封补充信,附上收集到的问题及其解答。
The minimum investment for new partners is currently $25,000, but, of course, this does not apply to present partners. Our method of operation will enable the partners to add or withdraw amounts of any size (in round $100) at yearend. Estimated total assets of the partnership will be in the neighborhood of $4 million, which enables us to consider investments such as the one mentioned earlier in this letter, which we would have had to pass several years ago. This has turned out to be more of a production than my annual letter. If you have any questions, particularly regarding anything that isn’t clear in my discussion of the new partnership agreement, be sure to let me know. If there are a large number of questions, I will write a supplemental letter to all partners giving the questions that arise and the answers to them.
沃伦·E·巴菲特
Warren E. Buffett
Vlb 1961 年 7 月 22 日
Vlb July 22, 1961
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1961 年致股东的信
1961 Letter