致合伙人信(1962-11-01)

合伙人信 · 原文约 1129 词
译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文,也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。
打开来源正文

巴菲特合伙有限公司

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.

基威特广场 810 号

810 KIEWIT PLAZA

内布拉斯加州奥马哈 31

OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA

1962 年 11 月 1 日

November 1, 1962

致 1963 年的各位合伙人

TO MY PARTNERS FOR 1963

一年一度的文书往来又开始了。随信附上 1963 年修订版合伙协议一式两份。其中附有《总则》的那份请您留存,另一份单页协议请签署后寄回。与去年的协议相比,实质内容没有任何变动。此次修订只是为了接纳几位新合伙人,并在几处把现行条款的措辞改得更清楚一些(但愿如此)。改动几乎全在《总则》第 5 条(即去年协议的第 7 段)。我们没有另立一份修订文件,而是把改动直接并入了一份完整的协议,一份文件便囊括了全部条款。

随信还附上两份承诺函(一份留存,一份寄回),请您在函上注明 1 月 1 日增资或撤资的打算。协议和承诺函都请在 12 月 1 日前寄回。不过承诺函在年底之前(年底之后就不行了)随时可改——万一您改了主意,而承诺函已经寄出,只需与我联系,我会按您的意思一并改妥。撤资款项会在 1 月 1 日后立即支付。增资须在 1 月 10 日前到账;若在 11 月内到账,则视作预付款,年底之前按 6% 的年利率计息。

请务必将合伙协议上的签名办理公证。奥马哈的合伙人愿意的话,可以直接到我们办公室办理。另外,请在承诺函上圈出您的选择,明确告知 1963 年是否希望按月领款。为免误会,我再说明一次:这笔月度款项绝不是什么保证收益之类的东西。它只是一种便于定期提取的安排——收益率超过 6% 的部分,付的是收益;不足 6% 的部分,付的是本金。

您 1962 年度报税所需的全部税务资料,将于 1 月 20 日前送到您手上。在此之前若需估算税负,请告诉我,我会给您一个大致的数。12 月底我们还会再发一封谈税务的短函。

读到这里,您有权知道我们 1962 年至今的成绩。截至 10 月 31 日,道琼斯工业平均指数连同已收股息在内,整体下跌约 16.8%。对我们在邓普斯特农机公司的控股权益,今年年末仍沿用去年年末的估值方法。这套方法是对资产负债表各项计提不同折扣,以反映我判断在极快变现的前提下能拿回多少钱。去年的做法是:存货打 40% 折扣、应收账款打 15% 折扣、固定资产按拍卖估值计算,如此得出每股约 35.00 美元。

把邓普斯特的大部分资产成功变现,而且几乎是一美元对一美元、分文不折地拿回现金,这是 1962 年最漂亮的一笔。举个例子:去年年末 420 万美元的存货,今年年末大概只剩 190 万美元,单这一项的折扣就少计约 92 万美元(存货减少 230 万美元的 40%)。这段故事,我会在年度信里用我全套的报道笔法细讲。这里只消一句话:沿用上面那套折扣,年末估值很可能至少到每股 50.00 美元。

这项资产变现工作做得有多彻底,或许一句话就能说清楚:

Here we go on the annual paper flurry. Two copies of an amended partnership agreement for 1963 are enclosed. The one with the General Provisions attached is to be kept by you and the other single-page agreement should be returned. There are no substantive changes of any sort from last year's agreement. This amendment is merely to allow for a few new partners and in several places to reword in clearer (we hope) language provisions of the present agreement. Practically all of the rewording is in General Provision 5 (paragraph 7 in last year's agreement). Rather than have a separate amending document, we have incorporated the changes into one complete document embodying the entire agreement. We are also enclosing two commitment letters (one for you--one to be returned) on which you are to indicate your wishes regarding additions or withdrawals at January 1st. We would like to have the agreement and the commitment letter back by December 1st. However, the commitment letter can be amended right up until the end of the year (not after) so if you should have a change of plans and you have already mailed us your commitment letter, all you have to do is get in touch with me, and I will make whatever changes you desire. Any withdrawals will be paid immediately after January 1st. Any additions must reach us by January 10th, and should they be paid in during November, they will take on the status of advance payments and draw interest at the rate of 6% until yearend. Please be sure the signature on your partnership agreement is notarized. Partners in Omaha may obtain the notarization at our office if they wish. Also, be sure to let us know by an appropriate circle on the commitment letter whether you wish to receive monthly payments in 1963. In order to be sure everyone understands this, let me again state that these monthly payments are in no sense guaranteed earnings or anything of the sort. They represent a convenient form of regular withdrawal, which to the extent we earn better than 6% are payments from earnings, and to the extent we don't, are payments from capital. Complete tax information for your 1962 return will be in your hands by January 20th. If you should need an estimate of your tax position before that time, let me know and I will give you a rough idea. We will also send out a short letter on taxes in late December. Having read this far, you are entitled to a report on how we have done to date in 1962. For the period ending October 31st, the Dow-Jones Industrials showed an overall loss, including dividends received, of approximately 16.8%. We intend to use the same method or valuing our controlling interest in Dempster Mill Manufacturing at this yearend that we did at the end of last year. This involved applying various discounts to the balance sheet items to reflect my opinion as to what could be realized on a very prompt sale. Last year this involved a 40% discount on inventories, a 15% discount on receivables, estimated auction value of fixed assets, etc., which led to an approximate value or $35.00 per share. The successful conversion of substantial portions of the assets of Dempster to cash, at virtually 100 cents on the dollar, has been the high point of 1962. For example, inventory of $4.2 million at last yearend will probably be about $1.9 million this yearend, reducing the discount on this item by about $920,000 (40% of $2.3 million reduction). I will give this story my full journalistic treatment in my annual letter. Suffice to say at this point that applying the same discounts described above will probably result in a yearend value of at least $50.00 per share. The extent of the asset conversion job can perhaps best be illustrated in a sentence by pointing out that whereas

30
30

1961 年 11 月 30 日(邓普斯特财年截止日),我们手头只有 16.6 万美元现金,却背着 231.5 万美元负债;而今年预计能有约 100 万美元现金和投资(都是合伙基金平时买的那类),对应的负债只剩 25 万美元。1963 年这一局面继续改善的势头看来不错,我们预计明年邓普斯特的投资组合会大幅扩充。

若把邓普斯特按每股 50 美元估值,截至 10 月 31 日,合伙基金的整体收益(尚未向合伙人分配前)为 5.5%。这比道指领先 22.3 个百分点,若能保持到年底,将跻身我们历来最大的领先幅度之列。其中约 60% 的优势来自邓普斯特之外的投资组合,40% 来自邓普斯特本身的增值。

我希望所有合伙人和有意加入的人都清楚:上述成绩明显反常,即便重演也极为少见。它主要是因为道指大跌之际,我们把大笔资金押在了控股资产和套利机会上,而不是普通的市场仓位。假如 1962 年道指大涨,我们的相对表现会难看得很;今年至今的成功,丝毫说明不了我有什么判断行情的本事(这种事我从不去猜),只不过是普通股价格太高,逼得我不得不转向别的类别。倘若道指一路狂涨,我们就是垫底的那一个。我们完全料到,将来会有一些年份,我们的做法连道指都跑不赢——当然,我并不认为这会长期如此,否则我早就认输,直接去买道指了。这番说教就此打住,结论是:我绝不希望有谁以为过去几年的势头还会重来;我预计今后的业绩,平均而言,领先道指的幅度要小得多。

每封信的结尾我都请各位把不明白的地方告诉我,这次也请务必如此。我们已经配齐了秘书、新打字机等一应设备,就是想让这封信和这份协议人人都看得懂。

顺致敬意,

沃伦·E·巴菲特

WEB:bf

附言:最晚交回协议和承诺函的人可没有奖,所以请尽早办妥。别忘了,承诺函一张明信片、一个电话就能改——我们只是想赶在 12 月 31 日前把大头的活儿清掉,好在年底集中精力,把审计、税务资料等事情麻利地办出来。

we had $166,000 of cash and $2,315,000 of liabilities at November 30, 1961 (Dempster fiscal yearend), we expect this year to have about $1 million in cash and investments (of the type the Partnership buys) against total liabilities of $250,000. Prospects for further improvement in this situation in 1963 appear good, and we expect a substantially expanded investment portfolio in Dempster next year. Valuing Dempster at $50 per share, our overall gain (before any payments to partners) to October 31st for the Partnership has been 5.5%. This 22.3 percentage-points advantage over the Dow, if maintained until the end of the year, will be among the largest we have ever had. About 60% of this advantage was accomplished by the portfolio other than Dempster, and 40% was the result of increased value at Dempster. I want all partners and prospective partners to realize the results described above are distinctly abnormal and will recur infrequently, if at all. This performance is mainly the result of having a large portion of our money in controlled assets and workout situations rather than general market situations at a time when the Dow declined substantially. If the Dow had advanced materially in 1962, we could have looked very bad on a relative basis, and our success to date in 1962 certainly does not reflect any ability on my part to guess the market (I never try), but merely reflects the fact that the high prices of generals partially forced me into other categories or investment. If the Dow had continued to soar, we would have been low man on the totem pole. We fully expect to have years when our method of operation will not even match the results of the Dow, although obviously I don't expect this on any long-term basis or I would throw in the towel and buy the Dow. I’ll cut this sermon short with the conclusion that I certainly do not want anyone to think that the pattern of the last few years is likely to be repeated; I expect future performance to reflect much smaller advantages on average over the Dow. Each letter ends with the request that you let me know about anything that isn't clear. Please be sure that you do this. We are all geared up with secretarial help, a new typewriter, etc., and we want to be sure that this letter and agreement are understood by all. Cordially, Warren E. Buffett WEB:bf P/S: There are no prizes for being the last ones to get in the agreement and commitment letter, so please get to it as soon as possible. Remember the commitment letter can be amended by a postcard or a phone call--we are just trying to get the bulk of the work out of the way well before December 31st so we can concentrate on getting the audit, tax information, etc., out pronto at yearend.

31
31