2010 年 6 月 CNBC 专访
贝基·奎克我们现在在新学院（The New School）现场，稍后即将听到金融危机调查委员会（FCIC）的听证。我们会提一些问题。听证会正在进行中，他们正在与多位即将出庭的证人进行沟通。在第二组证人中，其中一位将是沃伦·巴菲特。此刻，我们请到了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的沃伦·巴菲特。巴菲特先生，感谢您接受我们的连线。
BECKY QUICKWe are standing by at the New School where we'll be hearing from the FCIC Commission in just a little bit. We're gonna be asking some questions. They are in progress right now, where they are talking to a lot of — of the people who are coming forth as witnesses. In the second session of witnesses, one of those will be Warren Buffett. And we are joined right now by Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway. And Mr. Buffett, thank you for being with us.
沃伦·巴菲特别客气。
WARREN BUFFETTPleasure.
贝基·奎克您今天出席——并非出于自愿——
BECKY QUICKYou are here today — not of your own free will —
沃伦·巴菲特（笑）没错。
WARREN BUFFETT(LAUGH) That's right.
贝基·奎克——您是收到了传票才来的。
BECKY QUICK— you were subpoenaed for this.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克为什么非得要传票才能把您请来？
BECKY QUICKWhy did it take a subpoena to get you here?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，在过去 12 到 15 个月里，我收到了八个不同的——要么是国会委员会，要么是国会委员会任命的委员会——的邀约，他们都请我去华盛顿，主要是去作证。我一直愿意通过电话配合他们做任何事情，回答他们所有的问题。比如，就在上周，我还为伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）领导的委员会这么做了。当时电话那头有不少人，我回答了所有问题，并告诉他们如果还有更多问题，可以再找我。但我的本职工作是经营伯克希尔，如果——如果我自愿去了一场听证会，接下来就会有另外十个对我说：“你为什么——你为什么不能也来我们这儿作证？”
WARREN BUFFETTWell, in the last 12 or 15 months, I've had eight different — either congressional committees or — commissions appointed by congressional committees — who have asked me to go to Washington, primarily to testify. And I've always offered to do anything they want by phone, and answer all their questions, and I just did it last week for Elizabeth Warren's commission, for example. And they had a number of people on the phone, and I — I answered all their questions, and told them if they wanted more to come back. But I've got a job running Berkshire, and I — if I — if I go to one voluntarily, I'm gonna have ten others that say, "Why d — why can't you come and do it for us?"
贝基·奎克虽说如此，您今天不会是一位带有敌意的证人吧——
BECKY QUICKBut having said that, you're not gonna be a hostile witness today —
沃伦·巴菲特哦，我不会带有敌意。（笑）
WARREN BUFFETTOh, I'm not hostile. (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克他们问什么，您就会答什么？
BECKY QUICKYou'll tell 'em what they're asking?
沃伦·巴菲特我会告诉他们——我会告诉他们我知道的一切。而且，一周前我已经接受了他们工作人员长达两小时的访谈，他们来了奥马哈。那一次——我们谈得很不错。他们问的问题很好，追问也很好。而且——
WARREN BUFFETTI'll tell 'em — I'll tell 'em whatever I know. And I've already had a two hour interview — with their staff a week ago, they came out to Omaha. And — and we had a good session. They asked good questions, good follow on questions. And —
贝基·奎克今天——今天的重点是评级机构在金融衰退中所扮演的角色。您认——您认为评级机构扮演了什么角色？
BECKY QUICKThe — the focus today is going to be on the role that the ratings agencies played in the financial downturn. What — what role do you think the fi — the — ratings agencies played?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，我认为它们跟其他所有人一样都犯了错。（笑）它们——显然人们很看重评级，它们的——它们的评级体系里有一套模型，但基本上——我——我——我从没见过那个模型，但它一定推导出——房价——住宅价格不可能暴跌，以及房价不会在整个美国范围内全面暴跌。它们——在某种程度上，它们大概认为各地房价未必相互关联。而——这是一个错误的模型，房地美、房利美、美国国会、媒体、我自己，（笑）投资者，还有全美各地的购房者，全都相信这个模型。所以它正是——它正是泡沫心态的一部分，而这种泡沫心态又被植入进了——不仅评级机构，还有其他机构所使用的模型。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think they were wrong like everybody else. (LAUGH) They — obviously people pay attention to ratings, and they had a model in — in their — rating system, but basically — I — I — I've never seen the model, but it must have said that — that — house prices — residential house prices can't take a dive, and that they won't take a dive all over the country. That they — to some extent, they probably thought they were not necessarily correlated with each other. And — and that was — that was a fallacious model, it was held by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the U.S. Congress, the media, me, (LAUGH) investors, and— and home buyers all over. So it was— it was part of a bubble mentality, and that bubble mentality got incorporated into— into models used by not only rating agencies, but others.
贝基·奎克但是，当你看到评级机构给出的评级在一夜之间从 A 级或 AA 级跌到 D 级时，我想说，这表明业已建立的那套系统存在巨大的问题——
BECKY QUICKBut when you have ratings agencies that go from an A or— a AA rating overnight to a D, I mean, that shows that there's a huge problem with the— the system that's been set up—
沃伦·巴菲特那个模型存在巨大的缺陷。那——从根本上说，美国公众心里都有一个模型，认为房价不可能——不可能崩盘。而一个极其、极其、极其巨大的泡沫，也许是我毕生见过最大的泡沫，破裂了。泡沫一破裂——A 级就变成了 D 级，诸如此类。这——
WARREN BUFFETTThere was a huge flaw in the model. That w— basically, the American public had a model that— where they didn't think house prices could— could crash. And— and a very, very, very big bubble, probably the biggest I've ever seen, popped. And when it popped— A's became D's and so on. That—
贝基·奎克但这听起来像是你觉得问题不在于评级机构的模型，而在于所有人看这个问题的模型。现在有很多疑问在于，单单评级机构模型本身是否存在内在的利益冲突。
BECKY QUICKBut that makes it sound like you think it's a problem not with the rating agencies' models, but with— everyone's model that was looking at this. There— there are a lotta questions now about whether there's an inherent conflict of interest just with the ratings agencies' models themselves.
沃伦·巴菲特不，我——我认为每个人的模型——我的意思是，如果你——如果——谁比房地美和房利美更了解抵押贷款？我的意思是，它们为美国 40% 的抵押贷款提供担保。它们拥有数百万、数百万笔抵押贷款、借款人、抵押贷款经纪人等所有人的数据。而在 2007 年 3 月 30 日，向国会提交的由监管它们的 OFHEO 准备的报告中，它们说它们的质量不错。我们——我们都参与了一个巨大的泡沫。这并不一定为评级机构开脱，但它——但它——但它——
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I— I think everybody's mo— I mean, if you— if— who knew more about mortgages than Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? I mean, they were guaranteeing 40 percent of all the mortgage in the United States. They had data on millions and millions and millions of mortgages, borrowers, mortgage brokers, everybody else. And— in March 30th of 2007, in the report to Congress that was prepared by OFHEO who oversaw them, they said that the— that their quality was good. It— we— we participated in a huge bubble. That does— that doesn't necessarily excuse the rating agencies, but it— but it— but it—
贝基·奎克嗯，这能让它们逃脱责任吗？
BECKY QUICKYeah, does it let them off the hook?
沃伦·巴菲特——但它——它——它——意味着它们无法思考——与几乎所有人的想法截然不同的情况。
WARREN BUFFETT—but it— it— it— it means that they were not inca— they were incapable of thinking— at great variants with how almost everybody thought.
贝基·奎克但评级机构整体有没有更好的模式？现在，是被评判的公司付钱。它们可以选择——
BECKY QUICKBut is there a better model for rating agencies overall? Right now, you have the companies that are— are being judged, paying the bill. And they get to shop around—
沃伦·巴菲特对，伯克希尔就在付一大笔费用。
WARREN BUFFETTRight, I'm paying a big bill at Berkshire.
贝基·奎克嗯——而且您可以选择，去不同的——
BECKY QUICKWell— and you get to shop around, and— and go to different—
沃伦·巴菲特不，我不能选择——我——我不能选择。这——我——标准普尔和穆迪——是——完全是伯克希尔的基准。我倒是很想选择。（笑）相信我，我对标准普尔或穆迪都没有定价权——没有任何议价能力。而且在保险领域我也是专家。但相信我，如果有人来提供评级，价格是标准普尔或穆迪的一半，我很乐意接受，但我做不到。市场要求我必须由标准普尔和穆迪来评级。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I don't get to— I— I don't get to shop around. That's the— I— I— Standard and Poor's and Moody's are— are the— are totally the benchmarks for Berkshire. I would love to shop around. (LAUGH) Believe me, I have no pricing— no— no negotiating power with either Standard and Poor's or Moody's. And best as a specialist in the insurance field too. But believe me, if somebody came and offered me ratings of half the price of Standard and Poor's or Moody's, I would love to do it, but I can't do it. The— the market demands that I be rated by Standard and Poor's and Moody's.
贝基·奎克市场要求这样，是因为政府——法律规定了——
BECKY QUICKThe market demands it because of the government— laws that are set up requiring—
沃伦·巴菲特它们——要求这样有几个原因。一个是穆迪和标准普尔是先来的，它们一直存在。它们被写进了各种监管——法规。我的意思是，我——作为一家寿险公司——我们有一家人寿保险公司。它告诉我们——关于 BBB 或 A 级之类的事情我们能做什么。所以一个州又一个州都有与评级机构挂钩的保险公司法规。而且指定的就是这些机构。所以我不能去找 XYZ 评级机构说，“你能半价做这个吗？”然后让任何人接受。
WARREN BUFFETTThey— it— it demands it for— for a couple reasons. One is Moody's and Standard and Poor's were there first, they've been around forever. They got enshrined into various regulatory— regulations. I mean, I— as a life in— we have a life insurance company. It tells us— what we can do in terms of BBB or in terms of A and all of that sort of thing. So state after state has regulations relating to insurance companies that ties in with the rating agencies. And the agencies are specified. And so I can't go to the XYZ rating agency and say, "Will you do this for half the price," and have it accepted by anybody.
贝基·奎克不过，您是否认为存在固有缺陷，回到刚才的问题。评级机构现在的商业模式有问题吗？如果有其他竞争者能进入，会不会更好？
BECKY QUICKDo you think though that there's an inherent flaw, just back to the question. Is there a problem with the business model right now for the ratings agencies? Would it be better if there were other competitors who could get in?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，确实有其他竞争者，但——但它们——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, there are other competitors, but— but they—
贝基·奎克是吗？
BECKY QUICKAgain?
沃伦·巴菲特——而且——而且——那里也有问题。但——但我们假设你创办了一家评级机构，你知道，然后你说——到处说，“我半价做。”我很喜欢这样，但唯一的问题是，这对我没任何好处。（笑）
WARREN BUFFETT—and— and— there are issues there. But— but let's just say you start a rating agency, you know, and— and you say— come around and say, "I'll do it for half the price." I love that, the only trouble is, it won't do me any good. (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克但有办法改变这个系统吗？我认为委员会今天要探讨的是，这个——需要做出哪些改变——
BECKY QUICKBut is there a way to change the system? I think what the commission's going to be getting at today is what changes need to be— made to this—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，它们可以——
WARREN BUFFETTWell they could—
贝基·奎克——这个特定的商业模式。
BECKY QUICK—particular business model.
沃伦·巴菲特它们——它们可以说十家评级机构中的任何一家都可以接受。但问题是——这——这里有一个相当微妙的点，因为如果有十家评级机构，而我可以从中选择，我会因为两个原因之一，也许两个都选，来选择——价格和宽松度。我的意思是，从某种意义上说，拥有垄断或双头垄断的安排，意味着评级机构可以独立于客户。它们——它们——这——基本上和报纸是同样的问题。如果一个镇上有十家报纸，它们的收入来自当地百货公司和杂货店等，它们可能不如只有一家报纸时独立，因为那家报纸可以嗤之以鼻，而百货公司（笑）还得在报纸上买广告。
WARREN BUFFETTThey— they could say any one of ten rating agencies was acceptable. And the— the problem is— there's— there's a really nuanced point in this, because if you have ten rating agencies out there, and I can choose among them, I'm gonna choose for one of two reasons, maybe both, price and laxity. I mean, in a sense, the— having a monopoly or a duopoly arrangement, means that the rating agencies can be independent of the people. They— they— it's— it's the same problem, you know, basically as with newspapers. If you have ten newspapers in a town, and they're getting their revenue from the local department stores and grocery stores and so on, they are likely to be less independent than if there's only one newspaper, because that newspaper can thumb their nose and the department (LAUGH) store still has to buy ads in the paper.
贝基·奎克没错，国会里有两个提案引起了广泛讨论。一个是来自众议员巴尼·弗兰克的，他提出这样的想法：“听着，我们不再给他们那种政府强制授权了，这样一来市场上就会产生大量竞争。”另一个来自参议员阿尔·弗兰肯，他说：“我们将设立一个政府监督委员会，告诉你要去哪里获取评级。”这两种模式中，有哪一种有道理吗？
BECKY QUICKRight, there are— are two proposals in congress that have gotten a lotta play. One is from senate— is from Congressman Barney Frank who takes a look at— this idea that— "Look, we're just not going to give them the government mandate for them to be required anymore, so that will therefore create a lotta competition in the marketplace." The other is from Senator Al Franken, who says, "We'll set up a government oversight board that tells you where you're going to go to get your ratings." Do either of those models make sense?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，我需要看到更多细节。我——我——我认为市场会继续要求那些品牌。我的意思是，我——我希望不是这样。我的意思是，当评级机构来给伯克希尔评级时，它们掐住了我的喉咙。你知道，如果它们说要收我 100 万美元，我说，“你知道，为什么不 90 万美元？”我——我——我没有任何筹码。所以——如果有十家机构，我可以选择，“我想要最便宜的那个。”人们会说，“嗯，你选了最便宜的，但它们——它们给你——你知道，它们没做工作，”之类的。所以这——这——这不是一个容易的答案。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'd have to see more details on it. I— I— I think that the market will continue to demand from the brand names. I mean, I— I wish it weren't the case. I mean, when the rating agency comes to rate Berkshire, they have me by the throat. You know, if they say that it's gonna cost me a million dollars, and I say, "You know, why can't you do this for $900,000?" The— the— I have— I have— no leverage whatsoever. So— if there were ten agencies, and I could say, "I'd like the cheapest." People will say, "Well, you took the cheapest, but they— they gave you— you know, they didn't do the work," or something to the sort. So it's— it's— it's not an easy answer.
贝基·奎克所以不一定有一个清晰的解决方案能消除任何形式的利益冲突？
BECKY QUICKSo there's not necessarily a clear solution that cuts out any sort of conflict of interest along the line?
沃伦·巴菲特不，我们——我们作为证券买家的解决方案是不用评级机构。我的意思是，我——我不认为——而且我——我怀疑 BIMCO 也是如此，比如，或者贝莱德。我的意思是，我们——我们——我们的工作是靠自己来评级信用。我们不会把这个外包给评级机构。但世界是这样做的，而且有所有这些嵌入的法规。所以评级机构有点像演变成了这种自然的双头垄断。这使得它们成为了一笔好投资，但很难——
WARREN BUFFETTNo, our— our solution as a buyer securities is we don't use rating agencies. I mean, I— I don't think— and I don't— and I doubt if BIMCO does, for example, or BlackRock. I mean, our— our— our job is to rate credit ourselves. We do not outsource that to rating agencies. But the world does, and it has all these regulations built in. So the rating agencies sort of evolved into this natural duopoly. That's what made it a good investment but tough to—
贝基·奎克我刚想说——（笑声）你不用评级机构，但你是穆迪的最大投资者——
BECKY QUICKI was gonna say— (LAUGHTER) you don't use the ratings agencies, but you're the largest investor in Moody's—
沃伦·巴菲特是啊，它——它有——它——它有着全球最出色的商业模式之一。你看看标普或穆迪的投入资本回报率，简直高得惊人。所以它们有定价权。如果你想用一个问题来判断一家公司业务好不好，就问它明天能不能涨价。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it— it had— it— it had one of the world's great business models. If you look at the return on invested capital for Standard & Poor's or Moody's, it's practically infant. So they have the power to price. And if you wanna know one question to ask in terms of determining whether somebody's got a good business or not, just ask 'em whether they can raise prices tomorrow.
贝基·奎克这很有意思，不过你刚才一开口就说，“它们有很好的商业模式。”那个商业模式现在没了吗？
BECKY QUICKYou know, that's interesting, though you— when you first that talking, you said, "They had a great business model." Is that business model gone?
沃伦·巴菲特眼下还没消失，但它——它——它可能受到某种威胁。而且——而且——十年之前，看上去什么事都不会发生，现在却有可能出事了。它仍然是很好的商业模式。我是说，我得让评级——我们有个公司叫伯克希尔·哈撒韦担保公司。它得让标普和穆迪给评级。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's not gone at the moment, but it's— it's— it's perhaps threatened in some way. And— and— and the— ten years ago, it looked like nothing would happen to it, and now there's the possibility of something happening to it. It's still a great business model. I mean, I have to get rated— we have a company called Berkshire Hathaway Assurance. We have to get a rating from Standard & Poor's and Moody's.
贝基·奎克你一直在减持——你仍然是最大的股东，但你在减持。如果随你心意，你现在会一股穆迪都不持有吗？
BECKY QUICKYou have been selling your stake— you're still the largest sell— shareholder, but you've been selling your stake. If you had your druthers, would you own no Moody stock at this point?
沃伦·巴菲特不，如果——如果——如果真那样，我早就全卖光了。（笑）这取决于价格，也取决于其他投资机会。但它没有十年前那种铁板一块的局面了。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, if I— if— if that were the case, I would've sold it all. (LAUGH) It depends on the price, it depends on alternative investments. But it does not have the bullet proof situation that it had ten years ago.
贝基·奎克这就是你一直在卖的原因？
BECKY QUICKThat's why you've been selling?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，那——那是一个原因。是个大原因，但不是唯一原因。这也取决于我们拿钱能做什么，以及我们卖的是什么价钱。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, that— that is a reason. It's a big reason, but it's not the only reason. But it's what we can do with the money and what price we're getting for it.
贝基·奎克评级机构出问题后，政治和监管的关注是不是另一个原因？
BECKY QUICKIs the political spotlight, the regulatory spotlight with the problems with the— with the ratings agencies another reason?
沃伦·巴菲特那会威胁到铁板一块的特许权。（笑）没错。
WARREN BUFFETTThat threatens the bulletproof franchise. (LAUGH) Yeah.
贝基·奎克我的意思是，作为——作为一名投资者，你——你总在谈论自己重仓持股的公司。你跟穆迪的 CEO 很熟吗？
BECKY QUICKI mean, as an— as an investor, you— you talk all the time about the companies that you're highly invested in. Do you know the CEO of— of Moody's well?
沃伦·巴菲特我见着他也不一定认得出来，我——三四年前见过他一次，但我这人记名字（笑）和长相都不太行，所以今天我会坐他旁边，可——可——你知道，我倒希望他们别安排错了人，要不我——（笑）我真会叫错名字。
WARREN BUFFETTI wouldn't know if I saw him, I— I met him once three or four years ago, but I'm not very good on names (LAUGH) and faces, so I will be sitting next to him today, and— and— you know, I hope they don't put somebody else in there, or I'll c— (LAUGH) I'll call him by the wrong name.
贝基·奎克另外——不过眼下冒出了很多质疑。你为穆迪所做的那些工作感到自豪吗——
BECKY QUICKThe other— there are a lotta questions that come up, though. Are you proud of the work that Moody's has done—
沃伦·巴菲特我——我——
WARREN BUFFETTI— I—
贝基·奎克——站在投资者的角度？
BECKY QUICK—as an investor?
沃伦·巴菲特——我认为——听着，如果我早料到事情会发展到这一步，我也会在 60 或 70 美元的时候就把穆迪的股票卖了。所以我自己也没聪明到哪儿去。
WARREN BUFFETT—I think— listen, if I'd seen this coming, I would've sold my Moody stock at 60 or 70 too. So I— I wasn't a lot smarter myself.
贝基·奎克好吧。昨天《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金写了一篇专栏，文章末尾提了一个问题，他列了一长串问题——
BECKY QUICKOkay. There was an— a column that was written yesterday by Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times and it's asked a question at the bottom, he proposed a lotta questions—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯哼。
WARREN BUFFETTUh-huh.
贝基·奎克——说如果他今天列席这个调查委员会就会问。其中一个是——穆迪收到 Wells Notice 之后一星期，你就卖掉了一部分穆迪的股票。你知道那份 Wells Notice 吗？
BECKY QUICK—he'd be asking if he were on this commission today. One of this is that— you sold a lot of your— you sold a stake in Moody's a week after they received the Wells Notice. Did you know about that Wells Notice?
沃伦·巴菲特不知道，我从来没——从来没听说过这事，直到前些日子在报道里读到才知道。我——我们一年前就开始卖了，我们持有 4800 万股，过去一年卖了大概 1800 万股，而且都是趁股价涨到一定位置卖的。我们卖出股票的消息公开之后，时不时会有交易商过来报个 10 万股的买单，或者类似的单子。但是——不，我完全不知道他们收到了 Wells Notice。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I never— never heard of it till I read— read about it the other day. I— we started selling it a year ago, and we had 48 million shares, we sold about 18 million shares over the last year, and it's— it's been when the price is up to some degree. And once it was publicized that we'd sold stock, every now and then a dealer the would have a bid for 100,000 shares, or something, would come in. But— no, I had no notion that they had a Wells Notice.
贝基·奎克你今天在《今日秀》上说——你认为这次金融危机的真正根源是——住房和房地产泡沫。
BECKY QUICKYou said today on The Today Show that— you thought the real reason for the financial crisis was— housing and the housing bubble.
沃伦·巴菲特它——它——根源就是房地产泡沫。我是说，还有很多其他因素掺杂其中，可——可要是没有房地产泡沫——以及泡沫破裂后接踵而至的一切，那么——而且你也知道，房地产是美国公众最大的资产类别，大约有 66% 到 67% 的美国公众投了钱，还都是加了杠杆的。所以，你想想看，如果——如果 66% 到 67% 的美国公众都满仓融资持有股票，然后有什么东西导致那个泡沫破裂，那也会是一次大崩盘。只不过这一次出问题的是——是那个最大的资产类别，明白吧？（笑）
WARREN BUFFETTIt— it— it was the housing bubble. I mean, there are a lot of other things that entered in, but— but if we hadn't had the housing bubble— and everything that went with it when it popped, and— and you know, it was the largest asset class to the American public, and it's one of 66 or 67 percent of the American public had an investment in it, and they were leveraged in it. So, you know, if s— if 66 or 67 percent of the American public had stocks margined to the hilt, and something caused that bubble to pop, that would've been a big pop too. But this was— the was the biggest asset class, you know? (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克你知道，现在很多人担心欧洲的局面。这对经济的影响有多大？因为上次我们跟你聊的时候，你认为美国经济确实在快速推进。
BECKY QUICKYou know, there are a lotta people who are worried about what's happening in Europe right now. How big of an impact is that having on the economy? Because the last time we spoke with you, you thought the economy was really moving along at quite a clip.
沃伦·巴菲特经济正在积蓄动能。特别是三月、四月和五月，已经——已经——已经显露出一些加速的迹象。所以欧洲那边的情况，到目前还没有影响到我们这里——我是说就我们旗下企业的经营而言。形势确实很危险，但是——但——但至少到目前为止，我们的复苏还在继续推进。我们每周都在招人。
WARREN BUFFETTThe economy's picking up steam. And particular March, April, and May, it's— it's— it's shown some acceleration. So what's happening in Europe has not had an effect here yet in— in terms of our businesses. It's— it's a dangerous situation, but— but— but so far our recovery is coming along. We're hiring every week.
贝基·奎克伯克希尔每周都在招人——
BECKY QUICKYou're hiring every week at Berkshire—
沃伦·巴菲特每周都招，没错。
WARREN BUFFETTEvery week, yeah.
贝基·奎克（通用电气 CEO 杰夫·伊梅尔特）倒说，他看欧洲经济现在摇摇欲坠。
BECKY QUICK(General Electric CEO) Jeff Immelt though, said, when he looked at the European economy, it's tottering right now.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克那会不会波及我们？那种浪潮会不会把我们卷进去？
BECKY QUICKCan that catch up? Is that— a wave that can kind of wash over us?
沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛，我会极其关注。（笑）他们那边——你知道，有个相当严重的问题。不过——大多数经济体都能挺过大多数严重问题。但——但眼下他们确实碰上了一个。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's something I'll watch with great interest. (LAUGH) They have— they have— you know, they have a very severe problem over there. And— and most economies get through most severe problems. But— but they have one right now.
贝基·奎克与一个月前相比，你是更乐观了，还是更不乐观了？
BECKY QUICKAre you more optimistic or less optimistic than you were a month ago?
沃伦·巴菲特我对这个国家始终乐观。
WARREN BUFFETTI'm always optimistic about the country.
贝基·奎克可你——说到对国家的乐观，咱们单谈经济。你觉得变好了还是变差了——
BECKY QUICKBut do you feel optimistic about the country, let's just talk about the economy. You feel better or you feel worse—
沃伦·巴菲特哦，我觉得——我当然对美国经济感到乐观。
WARREN BUFFETTOh I feel— I feel optimistic about the U.S. economy, sure.
贝基·奎克那全球经济呢？
BECKY QUICKBut the global economy?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，我对亚洲感到乐观。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I feel optimistic about Asia. (LAUGHTER)
贝基·奎克你对——
BECKY QUICKYou feel optimistic about—
沃伦·巴菲特南极洲我相当看好。
WARREN BUFFETTAntarctica I'm big on.
贝基·奎克（笑）好吧。闪电崩盘出现时，扰乱了交易，我们目睹道指单日暴跌逾 1000 点，很多人开始担心市场到底稳不稳。你有什么担忧吗？
BECKY QUICK(LAUGH) Okay. When the flash crash came up, and it disrupted the trading, and we saw this massive drop of over 1,000 points in the Dow, it raised a lotta people's concerns about how stable the markets are. Do you have any concerns?
沃伦·巴菲特没有，没有影响，你知道，我们照样在做自己的生意，世界也不会因此改变。当时情况——有可能是网络攻击。有 15 到 20 分钟我完全不知道发生了什么。然后——然后——那并没有多大关系。我是说，周六周日市场关门的时候，不也一样没什么影响吗，对吧？（笑）
WARREN BUFFETTNo, no it doesn't affect, you know, we're still out there selling what we sell, and the— the world wasn't gonna change. It c— it could've been a cyber attack. I didn't know what was going on there for 15 or 20 minutes. And— and— but it didn't make any difference. I mean, it doesn't make any difference on Saturday and Sunday when the markets are closed, right? (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克那你——你对市场正常运转有信心吗，还是觉得还有地方需要完善？
BECKY QUICKBut do you th— do you have confidence that the markets function properly, or do you think there's more that needs to be done?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，它们——可能——可能有一些我不太懂的技术性层面需要完善。但——不，那件事并没有动摇我对经济或市场的基本看法。
WARREN BUFFETTWe'll, they— they— prob— there's probably some mechanical aspect that I don't understand, that needs work on. But— but— but— no, that did not raise fundamental questions in my mind about either the economy or the market.
贝基·奎克好的，再问一个问题，既然你今天准备去委员会发言，有什么话是你想确保一定传达给他们的吗？
BECKY QUICKOkay, and again, as you're getting ready to head in today to speak to this (Commission, is there anything you want to make) sure you impart to them?
沃伦·巴菲特没有，我会——我会到场回答他们的提问。我不做开场陈述。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I'll— I'll be there to answer their questions. I don't have an opening statement.
贝基·奎克就他们之前跟你的会面来看，主要焦点是在评级机构上，还是——问题范围很广？
BECKY QUICKIn terms of the meetings that they had with you beforehand, did they focus mostly on the ratings agencies or was it— a broad range of questions?
沃伦·巴菲特不，我跟他们谈了两个小时，其中涉及评级机构的时间不超过十分钟。所以，后来发现我要跟穆迪的六位代表同台，这对我来说很意外。他们——他们之前完全没有以任何方式、任何形式向我透露过这一点。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I talked to them for two hours, and there wasn't more than ten minutes on rating agencies. So it was a surprise to me to find out that I was going to appear with six people from Moody's. They— they did not indicate that to me in any way, shape, or form.
贝基·奎克好的，沃伦，非常感谢你提前抽出时间接受采访，我们会关注今天的听证会。
BECKY QUICKAll right, well Warren, we wanna thank you very much for your time ahead of this, and we'll be watching the hearing today.
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