2012 年 Charlie Rose:'Tap Dancing to Work'
“跳着踢踏舞去上班”
'Tap Dancing to Work'
2012 年 11 月 26 日,星期一
Monday 11/26/2012
https://charlierose.com/videos/17620
https://charlierose.com/videos/17620
沃伦·巴菲特与《跳着踢踏舞去上班》的作者卡罗尔·卢米斯,聊了聊巴菲特的政见、职业抉择和慈善事业。
Warren Buffett and Carol Loomis, author of "Tap Dancing to Work," discuss Buffett's political views, career decisions, and philanthropic efforts.
查理·罗斯:沃伦·巴菲特和卡罗尔·卢米斯来到了我们的节目。他是全球最成功的投资者之一,也是我们节目的老朋友。她是《财富》杂志的传奇撰稿人,从巴菲特还是奥马哈一位 35 岁的对冲基金经理时,就一路追踪他的职业生涯。早在 1966 年,她连他的名字都写不对。卡罗尔·卢米斯第一次在《财富》杂志上提到沃伦·巴菲特时,把他的姓拼错了,少写了一个“t”。这段美好的友谊,以及《财富》杂志对这位后来我们所熟知的伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长的报道,竟然始于这样一个不太靠谱的开头。《跳着踢踏舞去上班》是卡罗尔·卢米斯的新书,它是一组文章合集,讲述了沃伦·巴菲特的非凡历程。这同样也是一个关于友谊的故事。我很高兴能请到两位坐在一起。欢迎。
Charlie Rose: Warren Buffett and Carol Loomis are here. He's one of the world's most successful investors and a long time friend of this program. She is the legendary "Fortune" magazine writer who has followed his career since he was a 35-year-old hedge fund manager from Omaha. Back in 1966 she couldn't even get his name right. When Carol Loomis made the first mention of Warren Buffett in "Fortune" she spelled his name with only one "t". It was an unlikely start to a beautiful friendship and to "Fortune's" coverage of the man who we've come to know as the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. "Tap Dancing to Work" is Carol Loomis' new book; it is a collection of articles telling the remarkable story of Warren Buffett. It's also a story about friendship. I am pleased to have them together at this table. Welcome.
沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢。
Warren Buffett: Thank you.
查理·罗斯:很高兴能请到你们两位;你们之前各自都来过——
Charlie Rose: It's so good to have you; you both have been here separately --
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:很高兴来到这里。
Carol J. Loomis: It's good to be here.
查理·罗斯:——但今天是请两位一起。
Charlie Rose: -- but to have you together.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:太棒了。
Carol J. Loomis: It's terrific.
查理·罗斯:所以我想聊聊这本书,聊聊你的职业生涯,还有《财富》杂志,以及你们的交情。不过,今天早上,我们所有人醒来都读到了你写的一篇专栏,标题是《向富人征收最低税》。你在开头就说,就你所知,大多数投资者,如果是一笔好买卖,他们不会因为要交一些税就不痛快。
Charlie Rose: And so I want to talk about the book and about the career and about "Fortune" magazine and the relationship, but first this morning we all got up to read an op-ed by you called "A minimum tax for the wealthy". And you start off by saying that most investors you know, if it's a good deal they're not going to be upset about the fact that they're going to have to pay some tax.
沃伦·巴菲特:我认识的每一个投资者都这样。我这辈子还从未见过——我今年 82 岁了,活脱一个第欧根尼,满世界寻觅,就想找到那位会说“这机会能赚大钱,我看还是算了吧”的投资者。
Warren Buffett: Every investor I know. I've never -- I'm 82 years old and I'm looking like Diogenes; I'm out there looking at that investor who says "I think I'll pass on this chance to make a lot of money."
查理·罗斯:哪怕是一笔十拿九稳的买卖,我也放弃——
Charlie Rose: Even if it's a certain deal I'm going to pass --
沃伦·巴菲特:查理,我假设今晚半夜给你打电话,我可不是慌慌张张打来的,我会说:“这是我碰到过的最好的主意。”然后你会说:“那我得交多少税?”
Warren Buffett: Charlie I'm going to call you tonight at midnight and I'm going to not be panning and I'm going to say "This is the best idea I've ever had." And you're going to say "How much will the tax I have to pay?"
查理·罗斯:我可不这么认为。你在文章里是这样写的:“说不定,什么时候我们还真能碰到这么一个人,他有一个绝佳的投资想法,却因为成功后得交税而裹足不前。把这种主意发给我吧,让我来替他卸下包袱。”
Charlie Rose: I don't think so. Here is how you in the article you say "In the meantime maybe we'll run into someone with a terrific investment idea who won't go forward with it because of the tax he would owe when he succeeds. Send it my way. Let me unburden him."
沃伦·巴菲特:这个提议对所有观众都有效。
Warren Buffett: That offer goes to all viewers.
查理·罗斯:你虽然这样开了头,但你今天来是有严肃用意的。
Charlie Rose: You started with that but you have a serious purpose here.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Sure.
查理·罗斯:你认为国会现在就应该通过的最低税率是多少?这件事不能再等,不能等着税制改革可能耗费的所有时间和可能涉及的各种交易都谈完了再做。
Charlie Rose: What is the minimum tax that you think ought to be done today by Congress and not wait for all the time it might take and all the deals it might take to reform the tax code?
沃伦·巴菲特:我认为,收入超过 100 万美元的部分,应该设定最低 30% 的税率。你也知道,他们现在讨论的是把最高税率提高到 39.6%。
Warren Buffett: I think on incomes of over $1 million that the excess over $1 million should be -- have a minimum tax of 30 percent. As you know, they're talking about bringing the top tax rate up to 39.6 percent.
查理·罗斯:好,好。
Charlie Rose: Right, right.
沃伦·巴菲特:而现在最高一档的税率是 36%。
Warren Buffett: And right now the tax rate is 36 percent.
查理·罗斯:所以,收入在 100 万到 1000 万美元之间的部分,最低税率 30%。
Charlie Rose: So if you make from $1 million to $10 million a minimum tax of 30 percent.
沃伦·巴菲特:针对的是 100 万到 1000 万美元这个区间。
Warren Buffett: On the $1 million to $10 million.
查理·罗斯:嗯。
Charlie Rose: Right.
沃伦·巴菲特:超过 1000 万美元的部分,最低税率 35%。
Warren Buffett: And then over $10 million 35 percent.
查理·罗斯:好的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:我之所以提这个建议,是因为在我们有数据可查的最近年份,也就是 2009 年,收入最高的 400 名纳税人平均收入为 2.02 亿美元,其中有一半人适用的税率低于 20%。四分之一的人税率低于 15%。而且,信不信由你,有 6 个人,平均收入 2.02 亿美元,一分钱税都没交。他们就是罗姆尼口中那 47% 的人。我猜罗姆尼得了他们的选票——但他们就是一群寄生虫,只是一群寄生虫。
Warren Buffett: And the reason I'm suggesting that is because the 400 highest taxpayers in the most recent year we have figures for, 2009, who had average incomes of $202 million, half of those people paid at a rate below 20 percent. A quarter paid at a rate below 15 percent. And believe it or not, six, average income of $202 million paid nothing. I mean they were members of Romney's 47 percent. I mean -- and I suspect he got their vote -- but they're just a bunch of moochers, just a bunch of moochers.
查理·罗斯:你认为他们投了他的票,是吗?
Charlie Rose: You think that they voted for him, did they?
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。不过,你知道——我们在我的办公室做过三次调查,分属三个不同年份,在此期间办公室的员工人数在 16 到大概 21 人之间。每一次,我的税率——我指的是工资税加上所得税——都远低于办公室里的其他所有人。而这些人的收入各不相同。而且,税法在很多方面并不是累进的。我觉得税法应该是累进的。我认为,当有人赚了 1500 万、2000 万美元,甚至 2 亿美元,却只按 10% 的税率交税时,我认为应该对此采取一些措施。
Warren Buffett: Yes. You know, but they're -- well, we've conducted a survey three times in my office in three different years and the office has between 16 and probably 21 employees during that period and each time my tax rate was considerably lower -- I'm talking about payroll taxes plus income taxes -- considerably lower than anybody else in the office. And these -- these people made various incomes. And -- and the tax law in many cases is not progressive. I think the tax law should be progressive. I think that when people make $15 or $20 million or $200 million and pay a 10 percent rate I think -- I think something should be done about that.
查理·罗斯:但有人会说——有人站出来说,那是因为大部分收入来自股息,而股息的税率更低。
Charlie Rose: But people say that -- people step forward and say well, that's because most of the income comes from dividends which is taxed at a lower rate.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,大部分人——他们大概会说是大部分来自资本利得。
Warren Buffett: Well most -- they would probably say most of it comes from capital gains.
查理·罗斯:没错。
Charlie Rose: Right.
沃伦·巴菲特:而且那部分是按较低的税率征税的。
Warren Buffett: And that's taxed at a lower rate.
查理·罗斯:我说的是资本利得。
Charlie Rose: I mean capital gains.
沃伦·巴菲特:这个——没错,这个方案就是——就是确保那些收入极高的人,缴税的税率跟隔壁一年挣 10 万美元左右的人差不多。
Warren Buffett: This -- yes this just -- this just makes sure that people that have really high incomes pay at a rate the sort of like the people next door to them are you know who are making $100,000 a year or something of the sort.
查理·罗斯:如果你有权自行设定资本利得和普通收入的税率,你会定在多少?嗯,我——我可能会——我可能会觉得资本利得至少应该在 25% 的水平,我还会——而且——股息应该按普通收入征税,我会实行比现在更累进的税制。但由于——由于富人的游说者和律师太擅长绕开这些规定,我会设立一个最低税,这样无论你的游说者或律师是谁,如果你——如果你有 1000 万或 2000 万美元收入,你缴纳的税率要跟大多数看这个节目的人差不多。你写过并且非常了解那些极其成功的商人。你觉得,如果坐下来一对一谈话,他们会同意他的观点吗?他们到底是哪种人?
Charlie Rose: If you had automatic powers to establish what the tax rate should be both for -- for capital gains and for ordinary income, what would you set it at? Well, I would -- I would probably have -- I would probably feel that capital gains should be at least at the 25 percent level and I would -- and -- and dividends should be as ordinary income and I would have a more progressive tax system than we have. But since -- since the lobbyists and the lawyers for the rich are so good at getting around these things I would have a minimum tax so no matter who your lobbyist or lawyer was, if you -- if you had $10 million or $20 million of income you paid at a rate comparable to what most of the people who are watching this program pay. You write about and you know enormously successful businessmen and women. Do you think that if you sat down on a one-on-one conversation, they would agree with him or not? Which are they?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:嗯,我不认为——我绝不相信这会是一致意见。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, I don't think -- I don't think it would be unanimous by any means.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:嗯,多数——
Carol J. Loomis: Well, the majority --
查理·罗斯:他对富豪应尽的责任和公平之举的看法,是否代表了富豪阶层中一种孤独的声音?
Charlie Rose: Does he represent a voice in the wilderness for very wealthy people in the ideas he has about what's necessary and fair to do?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我觉得很多人同意他的看法。不过我并不确定支持者能超过 50%。
Carol J. Loomis: I think there are a lot of people who agree with him. But I'm not sure that it would be over 50 percent by any means.
查理·罗斯:那你觉得他说得对?
Charlie Rose: So you think he's right?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我确实认为他说得对。而且我得说,我丈夫在华尔街工作过很长一段时间,那段时间华尔街收入相当高,所以我这话可不是出自一个不会被征收很多税的人之口。我认为问题在于从来没有人谈论过工资税,这个话题根本就不会出现在讨论中。但当你像沃伦指出的那样把工资税加进去,结果就大不相同了,所以我确实认为他说得对。
Carol J. Loomis: I do think he's right. And I must say, my husband worked on Wall Street during a time when there was a lot of income associated with working on Wall Street and so I'm not talking as someone who wouldn't be subject to quite a lot of tax. And I think the problem is no one's ever talking about the payroll tax. That just doesn't ever come into the discussion. But when you add it in as Warren has pointed out that you should do, it makes a huge difference and so I do think he's right.
查理·罗斯:你希望总统能对这个请求作出回应。你认为这正是今天应该发生的事。
Charlie Rose: You hope that the President will be responsive to this. You think it's what ought to happen today.
沃伦·巴菲特:我认为——我希望总统和国会对这件事有所回应。
Warren Buffett: I think -- I hope the President and the Congress is responsive to it.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:我认为——我不认为我们应该干等着去——税法有各种各样的问题。改革是必要的。削减开支也是必要的。但我不想等到所有这些问题都解决了,才去办那些眼下明摆着该办的事。所以,那些谈改革的人,有些——很多人确实是在寻求改革。但也有些人说“改革”,只不过是想把事情再拖一两年。我——我不想让一件明摆着该做的事,被扣为人质,等着把所有事都办完。
Warren Buffett: I think that -- I don't think we should wait around to have a -- there are all kinds of things wrong with the tax code. Reform is called for. Expenditure cuts are called for. But I don't want to wait around until all of that stuff is done to do some things that are obvious now. So the people who talk reform, some of them -- many of them really are seeking reform. But some of them are saying "reform" because it just means pushing things down the road another year or two. And I -- I do not want to have something that obviously should be done be held hostage to getting everything done.
那么现在就该实行最低税制了吗?
Charlie Rose: So therefore do the minimum tax now?
沃伦·巴菲特:我的想法是,从 1 月 1 号开始。
Warren Buffett: I'd like to say starting January 1st.
查理·罗斯:如果财政悬崖真的来了,真的发生了,会怎样?它会对我们的经济造成什么影响?
Charlie Rose: What happens if the fiscal cliff comes and happens? What will it do to our economy?
沃伦·巴菲特:我、我不认为会有多大影响,因为我觉得人们会假定很快就能找到解决方案。这有点像债务上限问题。我的意思是,大家知道——世界其他地方可能时不时觉得我们很蠢,但他们不认为我们会自杀。所以、所以我觉得——我希望能在 1 月 1 号之前谈出个结果,但如果、如果稍微拖过那个时间,我也不认为——
Warren Buffett: I -- I don't think it will do that much because I think people will assume that a solution will be found quite promptly. It's a little like the debt ceiling question. I mean people know -- the rest of the world may think that we're idiotic at times but they don't think we're going to commit suicide. And -- and so I think if -- I hope something gets worked out before January 1st, but if it -- if it goes a little bit beyond that I do not think --
查理·罗斯:也就是说,1 月 10 号或者 1 月 2 号——
Charlie Rose: So January 10th or January 2nd --
沃伦·巴菲特:我不会——就算你向我打包票,说我们肯定会越过财政悬崖,我今天也不会卖出一股股票。
Warren Buffett: I will not -- if you guaranteed me that the fiscal cliff we would go past that, I wouldn't sell a share of stock today.
查理·罗斯:那你抱有这样的信心——相信他们最终会把这个事情解决?
Charlie Rose: That -- you have that confidence that in the end they will fix it?
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,而且我相信这个经济体本身也在发挥作用。
Warren Buffett: Yes, and that this economy works.
查理·罗斯:情况在好转吗?
Charlie Rose: Is it getting better?
沃伦·巴菲特:在好转。其实从 2009 年夏天就开始好转了。而且你看,我们已经连续四年,年年股市都实现了正回报。我是说,经济就是在不断改善。我们经历了一场巨大的泡沫,当泡沫破裂时,它对社会方方面面都产生了连锁反应,而华尔街和各种各样地方发生的种种乱象又把这种影响放大了。多米诺骨牌就这么排着倒下了。我们那时候问题很多。不过我们现在已经在——已经恢复三年了,因为问题的确很大,所以花了很长时间,但我们确实一直在变好。
Warren Buffett: It's getting better. It's been getting better since really the summer of 2009. And you know we've got four years straight now where the stock market's given a positive return. I mean the economy is getting better. We had a tremendous bubble and when it burst it was -- it had ramifications for all aspects of society and it was magnified by the abuses that had taken place in -- in -- in Wall Street and all kinds of places. So the dominos were lined up. We had plenty of problems. But we have been on -- we've been the mend now for -- for three years and it's taken a long time because it was a big problem but we are getting better all the time.
查理·罗斯:这本书叫做《跳着踢踏舞去上班》。你为什么选这个书名?
Charlie Rose: This book is about "Tap Dancing to Work. Why did you choose that title?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我跟你说,这几个月我在出版界学到了不少东西,我了解到书名是出版商和你之间经过一番协商才定下来的。我们考虑过两三个备选,之后我想出了这个,出版商展现出了极好的判断力。他说:“我觉得这个书名棒极了,就用它吧。”这个书名很贴切,因为他就是那个跳着踢踏舞去上班的人;他一直都是这样。
Carol J. Loomis: Let me tell you I've learned a lot about the publishing world in the last few months and I've learned that the title is a process of negotiation between the publisher and you. And I came up with this after we'd considered two or three others and the publisher just displayed great judgment. Said "I think it's a wonderful title, let's go with it." And that's what's apt because he is a man, who tap dances to work; he has forever.
查理·罗斯:这个——这确实是他经常说起的。我是说,你在那些访谈里提到过跳着踢踏舞去上班。那是一种……你给我解释一下,跳踢踏舞是什么意思来着?
Charlie Rose: This -- and has talked about it. I mean in the interviews yo have talked about tap dancing. It is someone -- you explain to me tap dancing was?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,意思就是,我每天早上都迫不及待地想去上班。而且,而且我是说,一天中最让我兴奋的时刻就是踏进办公室的那一刻。我、没有哪一天我不是盼着去上班的。
Warren Buffett: Well it just means that I can hardly wait to get to work in the morning. And -- and -- and I mean it's the most exciting part of the day is getting there. And I -- there's never been a day I haven't looked forward to it.
查理·罗斯:比起周六周日,你更喜欢周一到周五吗?
Charlie Rose: Do you like Monday through Friday better than Saturday and Sunday?
沃伦·巴菲特:那得看内布拉斯加队有没有橄榄球赛。
Warren Buffett: It depends whether Nebraska is playing football.
查理·罗斯:或者如果他们是在对阵圣母大学。
Charlie Rose: Or if they're playing Notre Dame.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,嗯,对,我可不想今年让我们跟圣母大学打比赛。
Warren Buffett: Yes, well, yes I don't want us to play Notre Dame this year.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:你怎么会认为他周六周日不去办公室?
Carol J. Loomis: What makes you think he doesn't go to the office on Saturday and Sunday?
沃伦·巴菲特:我星期六去办公室。
Warren Buffett: I go to the office on Saturday.
查理·罗斯:但——但你在办公室做的事和在家里做的事是一样的。你就是在看书和打电话。
Charlie Rose: But -- but what you do at the office and what you do at home is the same thing. You're reading and on the phone.
沃伦·巴菲特:我在阅读——我在阅读、思考,打电话,和朋友聊天。你知道,我的周六周日和工作日差别不大。不过工作日事情会多一点。
Warren Buffett: I'm reading and -- I'm reading and thinking and on the phone and talking to friends. And -- you know, there's very little difference in my -- in Saturday and Sunday from the weekdays. A little more action during the week, though.
查理·罗斯:这让我想起,关于建议,最让你吃惊的是什么。你问他最糟糕的建议是什么?
Charlie Rose: This reminds me of what surprised you most about in terms of advice. You asked him what was the worst advice?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我问他什么——
Carol J. Loomis: I ask him what --
查理·罗斯:或者说,一些最棒的建议。
Charlie Rose: Or some of the best advice.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,我们当时——我们当时正在做一个大动作。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, we were -- we were doing a big action (ph).
沃伦·巴菲特:对。他就要上杂志封面了,所以我——其实并不真正知道那个问题的答案——就说,好吧,现在告诉我,你这辈子从别人那里得到过的最好建议是什么?结果他接下来花了很长时间,讲的却是他收到过的最糟糕的建议。于是我回去跟我的总编说了这事,可能还有点——耷拉着脑袋——心里想,我没带回什么像样的东西,不过我们还是让他上了封面。就这样——
Warren Buffett: Right. He was going to be on the cover and so I -- without truly knowing the answer to the question I said all right, now, tell me what is the best advice you've ever gotten in your life from anyone? And he proceeded to talk for a long time about the worst advice that he had ever gotten. And so I went back and told my managing editor this, which probably kind of -- with my head down in -- in thinking well I hadn't come back with quite the right thing and we put him on the cover anyway. So --
查理·罗斯:有意思的是你回答这个问题的方式——聪明人告诉过你不要进入证券行业。
Charlie Rose: But what's interesting is what you -- the way you answered the question which is smart people told you don't go into the securities business.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:没错。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:你从这里面读出了什么?毕竟你后来进入了证券行业。
Charlie Rose: And what did you read from that? Because you went into the securities business.
沃伦·巴菲特:没错,不仅是聪明人,而且是爱我、我也爱的人。所以我的意思是,他们是在给我最好的建议。
Warren Buffett: Yes not only smart people, but people that love me and that I love them. So I mean they were giving me their best advice.
查理·罗斯:因为他们觉得你当时还没准备好,或者证券行业在那个时候是个差生意。
Charlie Rose: Because they thought you weren't ready for it or the security business was a bad business at that time.
沃伦·巴菲特:他们觉得股票卖得太贵了,因为道琼斯指数超过了 200 点。而我在几乎所有事情上始终认为,如果你要做一件事,就赶紧开始。我的意思是,坐在那里等一个不同的时机,对我来说根本行不通。不过,也有可能我当时才 20 岁,行为举止却像个 14 岁的小孩,看上去又像 16 岁的样子。
Warren Buffett: They thought stocks were selling too high because the Dow Jones was above 200 and I always feel on almost anything that if you're going to do it, get started. And I mean the idea of sitting around and waiting for a different time did not -- did not register with me. Now, it's also possible that I was 20 years old then and that I was behaving like I was about 14 and looked like I was about 16 or something.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:所以他们——那可能是他们用一种委婉的方式告诉我“再成熟一点再干这事吧。”但除此之外,他们确实觉得——这两位是我当时世界上最仰慕的人,他们告诉我,他们觉得股市太高了。
Warren Buffett: So they -- that may have been their nice way of telling me "Grow up a little bit before you do it." But beyond that, though, they really did feel -- here are the two guys I admired the most in the world and they told me they thought the stock market was too high.
查理·罗斯:这是你父亲和本杰明·格雷厄姆。
Charlie Rose: This is your father and Ben Graham.
沃伦·巴菲特:我父亲、本·格雷厄姆和我当时就说:“听着,我想开始干了。”你知道,我——我根本不想上大学。
Warren Buffett: My father and Ben Graham and I just said "Listen, I want to get going." You know I -- I didn't want to go to college.
查理·罗斯:是,但你那时候已经开始了,因为从 11 岁起你就一直在投资。
Charlie Rose: Yes but you'd already been going because you already had been investing since you were 11 years old.
沃伦·巴菲特:这倒没错,但现在我可以全职干这个了。
Warren Buffett: That's true but now I could do it full time.
查理·罗斯:那你第一次见到这家伙的时候呢。
Charlie Rose: So the first time you met this guy.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:没错。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:你其实当时在做一个节目。在见他之前,你正在拍一个对冲基金经理——他叫什么来着?
Charlie Rose: You were actually doing a piece. Before you met him you were doing a piece on a hedge fund guy -- what's his name?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:阿尔弗雷德·温斯洛·琼斯。
Carol J. Loomis: Alfred Winslow Jones.
查理·罗斯:阿尔弗雷德·温斯洛·琼斯。
Charlie Rose: Alfred Winslow Jones.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:对。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:其中一个——
Charlie Rose: One of the --
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:他非常出名。
Carol J. Loomis: He's very famous.
查理·罗斯:一个很有名的人,巴菲特这个名字被提到了。
Charlie Rose: A very famous guy and the name Buffett came up.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:巴菲特走上前来,萨姆·斯塔曼是位桥牌玩家,是那个叫“巴菲特合伙有限公司”的怪东西的投资人。
Carol J. Loomis: Buffett came up and Sam Stamen, a bridge player, was an investor in this strange thing called Buffett Partnership Limited.
查理·罗斯:是吗?
Charlie Rose: Yes?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:然后我满不在乎地直接拼写了出来,只打了一个“t”。所以——他第一次登上《财富》杂志时,我们就把他的名字拼错了。你知道我说的是编辑部的“我们”,因为干这事的就是我。
Carol J. Loomis: And I just blithely went ahead and spelled it with only one "t". So I -- the first time that he was ever in "Fortune" we misspelled his name. And you know I say that's the editorial "we" because it was I who did it.
沃伦·巴菲特:既然她从来没错过,从那以后我就一直用单个“t”(听不清)。
Warren Buffett: And since she's never been wrong I've been (INAUDIBLE) with one "t" ever since.
查理·罗斯:你的丈夫,约翰·卢米斯。
Charlie Rose: Your husband, John Loomis.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:是的。
Carol J. Loomis: Yes.
查理·罗斯:是先见了他。
Charlie Rose: Met him first.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:是的,他先见了他。
Carol J. Loomis: Yes, he did.
查理·罗斯:然后他回来说了什么?
Charlie Rose: And came back and said what?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:他说:“我觉得自己刚刚见到了全美国最聪明的投资人。”当然,我确信自己也跟所有妻子一样翻了翻白眼,心想,哦,是是是。后来我见到他和他太太——第一任妻子苏茜,才意识到他确实给人印象极其深刻,从那天起我也那么认为了。
Carol J. Loomis: He said "I think I've just met the smartest investor in the country." And of course I'm sure like wives do I rolled my eyes and thought, oh, yes, yes. Then I met him with his wife -- first wife Susie and I realized how terribly impressive he was and from that day forward I thought that, too.
查理·罗斯:然后他就成立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦。
Charlie Rose: And then he formed Berkshire Hathaway.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:嗯,他接手了伯克希尔·哈撒韦,但那时候——根本没人知道这个名字。这家公司完全无足轻重。然后我们从那个拼错单词的一句话开始,到 1970 年发展到两段文字。但到 1977 年,我们已经有了一篇沃伦自己写的 7000 字长文。我们意识到他是个非常出色的作者,于是——我们也顺着那个方向继续推进。所以这本书里有十多篇他写的文章,我刚才提到的那篇只是其中之一。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, he'd taken over Berkshire Hathaway but it was -- nobody even knew the name. It was totally insignificant. And so then we worked up from that one sentence with the word misspelled to two paragraphs in 1970. But by 1977 we had a 7,000-word piece by Warren himself. We recognized that he was a very good writer and we -- we went forward with that, too. And so there -- this book has a dozen pieces by him and that the one I just mentioned was only one.
查理·罗斯:那篇文章是什么?第一篇?
Charlie Rose: What was that piece? The first piece?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,就是《通胀如何欺诈股票投资者》。
Warren Buffett: Well, that was how inflation swindles the equity investor.
查理·罗斯:人们至今还在谈论那篇文章。
Charlie Rose: And people still talk about that piece.
沃伦·巴菲特:我不确定他们会怎么说。
Warren Buffett: I'm not sure what they say about it.
查理·罗斯:我读过那篇文章。还是有人——
Charlie Rose: I read that. There are still people --
卡罗尔·卢米斯:他们写信——他们写信跟他说这事。他们也写信跟我们说这事。这篇文章——这篇文章名气很大,确实如此。
Carol J. Loomis: They write -- they write him about it. They write us about it. It's a -- it's a famous piece. It really is.
查理·罗斯:如果你今天写一篇类似的文章——也许你正在写——除了致股东信之外,你会怎么评价我们当前所处的位置?
Charlie Rose: If you were writing today the same kind of piece-- and perhaps you are -- other than the letter to stockholders, what would you be saying about where we are?
沃伦·巴菲特:我会说——我会做很多历史回顾之类的事情,但核心观点是,对绝大多数——实际上对压倒性多数的、能够长期投资的人来说——股票是他们资金的最佳去处。
Warren Buffett: I would say that -- I would do a lot of historical things and all of that but basically I would say that for most -- overwhelmingly for people that can invest over time that -- that equities are the best place to put their money.
查理·罗斯:我还应该提一下那封致股东信。你当时来写那封信——你认识她,你仰慕她,你觉得她是你见过的最优秀的商业撰稿人。
Charlie Rose: I should also talk about the letter to the stockholders. You came in to do -- you knew her, you admired her, you thought she was the best business writer you'd ever met.
沃伦·巴菲特:当然。
Warren Buffett: Absolutely.
查理·罗斯:现在也还是。
Charlie Rose: And still do.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:跟我说说致股东信的事情,你想通过它达到什么效果,在你心里你想的是写给谁看?
Charlie Rose: Tell me about the letter to stockholders and what you want to do with that and who you're addressing in your own mind's eye?
沃伦·巴菲特:我是在跟合伙人说话,总共有 60 万人。但我脑海里想的通常是我的两个姐妹,伯蒂和多丽丝。她们非常聪明,但不在金融界工作。她们相当于离开了一年,把大部分钱投在伯克希尔,我想告诉她们,什么对她们来说是重要的。如果换作我是她们的位置,我会想让她们告诉我什么。所以我试着这么做。然后,我偶尔会转入一篇随笔,谈谈我觉得在投资界可能重要的某个话题。
Warren Buffett: I'm addressing partners, there are 600,000 of them. But in my mind I usually have my two sisters Bertie and Doris. And they're very bright. They don't work in the financial world. They've been gone for a year, metaphorically, and they've got a lot of their money in Berkshire and I want to tell them what I think is important to them. What I would want them to tell me if our positions were reversed. So I try to do that. And then I occasionally branch into an essay on something that I think may be important in the investment world generally.
查理·罗斯:甚至整个国家。
Charlie Rose: Or even the country.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:而且你从一开始就参与了——
Charlie Rose: And you got involved in the beginning --
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,我是 1977 年开始参与这封信的——
Carol J. Loomis: Well, I got involved with the letter 1977 and --
查理·罗斯:沃伦说,看看这个?
Charlie Rose: Warren said take a look at this?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:沃伦把它发给我,说:“今年的年报我想尝试点新东西,你帮我看一遍,告诉我你的想法?”我当时回得很谨慎。我说,我记得我建议把某个“the”改成“a”。
Carol J. Loomis: Warren sent it to me and said "I'm trying something new with the annual report, would you just look it over and tell me what you think?" And I was very timid in what I came back with. I said, I think I suggested changing a "the" to an "a".
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:然后这事似乎挺顺利的,所以第二年他又寄来了一封。后来这就成了惯例——他手写出来,助理打好字,寄给我,然后我俩的草稿就这么飞来飞去,我也会提些建议。
Carol J. Loomis: And then that seemed to work all right and so the next year he sent it again and then it became a routine where he would write it in long hand. His assistant would type it and it would come to me and then we would have drafts flying back and forth with suggestions from me.
查理·罗斯:嗯,我觉得这里还有个故事,就是您写的第一篇东西,编辑们想改一些内容。是第一篇吗?而且——基本上他们差点就毙了那篇文章,因为您不希望改动太大?
Charlie Rose: Well, I think there's a story in here, too, that the first thing you wrote the editors wanted to change some things. Was it the first thing? And -- and basically they almost killed the article because you didn't want that much editing?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,而且——我觉得那是 1977 年的那篇文章。
Warren Buffett: Well, and -- and I think that was the 1977 article.
查理·罗斯:对,没错。
Charlie Rose: Yes right, exactly.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,梅格·格林菲尔德,她是《新闻周刊》的著名撰稿人,而且——
Warren Buffett: Yes Meg Greenfield, who was a famous writer for "Newsweek" and --
查理·罗斯:对,是的。
Charlie Rose: Right, yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:我把那篇文章拿给她看,梅格非常温和地对我说:“沃伦,你没必要在一篇文章里把自己知道的所有东西都倒出来。”虽然我照做了——
Warren Buffett: I showed her the -- the article I'd written and Meg very gently said to me "Warren, you don't have to tell everything you know in one article." Although I go with the
查理·罗斯:是不是有这么个故事,说《财富》杂志有个编辑跑去找主编,说——
Charlie Rose: Isn't there a story in there that one of the editors at "Fortune" went in to the big editor and said --
卡罗尔·卢米斯:有一位编辑去了——就是负责那篇稿子的,特地跑到奥马哈去说服他改些东西,然后打电话回来说:“我劝他改什么都没太大成效。也许我们该考虑别发了。”总编回答说:“不,我觉得值得发。”
Carol J. Loomis: One of the editors went in -- the one who was assigned to the piece and went out to Omaha to get him to change certain things called up and said "I'm not having too much luck getting him to change anything. Maybe we should think about not running this." And the managing editor said "No I think it's worthwhile."
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:于是我们照办了。7000 个单词,没多少配图——确实没有,一张图也没有。
Carol J. Loomis: And so we did. 7,000 words without many pictures -- really not about, not any pictures.
查理·罗斯:那她之后做什么呢?就是点点“i”上的点,再画画——
Charlie Rose: And so what does she do now? Just dotting "I's" and crossing --
沃伦·巴菲特:不,首先我——我——我会先改写大约十遍才发给她。然后——然后我发给她,她——她从不试图改动内容之类的东西,但——但会指出哪里行文不顺、哪里语法错误多、各种各样的东西——有时她会写“这是报告中我最不喜欢的一段”——而通常那段确实也不怎么样。
Warren Buffett: No, for one thing I -- I -- I rewrite it about ten times before I send it to her. And then -- and then I send it to her and -- and she never tries to change the content or anything like that but -- but she points out when the flow is wrong, where there's lots of grammatical errors, all kinds of things and -- and sometimes she'll write "This is my least favorite part of the report," which is -- and usually it is, too.
查理·罗斯:那这段友谊持续了多少年?
Charlie Rose: So how many years has it been this friendship?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:呃,那是什么?35 年?35 年。哦,我们的友谊还不止那么久。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, what is that? 35? 35 years. Oh, the friendship has been longer than that.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes, yes.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:这友谊可以追溯到 1967 年。
Carol J. Loomis: The friendship goes back to 1967.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。她有一条装点着小饰物的手链——实际上有四条,每条上面都挂着她当年年报的复刻品——每份报告都有一份。
Warren Buffett: Yes. She has a charm bracelet -- four charm bracelets, a replica of every -- a copy of every report.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:对。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:那你们友谊的秘诀是什么?
Charlie Rose: So what's the secret to the friendship?
沃伦·巴菲特:呃,我——就我来说,肯定有太多方面了。我的意思是,她是一位极好的朋友,但她也——她也是我见过的最聪明的人之一,而且她很客观,并且——用一种非常、非常友善的方式,在我胡说八道的时候点醒我,指出一些问题。
Warren Buffett: Well, I -- certainly on my part all kinds of things. I mean she's a wonderful friend but she's -- she's also one of the smartest people I've ever seen and she's objective and -- and in a very, very nice way she tells me when I'm full of baloney and a few things.
查理·罗斯:卡罗尔,你也这么看吗?
Charlie Rose: Is that how you see it Carol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,我确实觉得自己是为数不多敢跟他争论的人之一。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, I do think I'm one of the few people who argue with him.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我确实这么想。而且我有时会思考——
Carol J. Loomis: I do think that. And I do sometimes about --
查理·罗斯:难道没人跟你争辩吗?
Charlie Rose: You don't have people argue with you?
沃伦·巴菲特:查理——我的合伙人查理·芒格——我们俩从来没吵过架,但分歧不少。每次有不同意见,他最后总会甩出那句杀手锏:“沃伦,等咱们聊完这事儿,你就会同意我的,因为你聪明,而我是对的。”
Warren Buffett: Charlie -- my partner Charlie Munger -- we've never had an argument, we had a lot of disagreements and wherever we have a disagreement his clincher always is "Warren, when we get through talking about this you'll agree with me because you're smart and I'm right."
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我也把查理算进那几个跟他争论的人里。我只是——我确实觉得只有那么几个人。
Carol J. Loomis: And I will include Charlie in the few people who argue with him. I just -- I do think it's only a handful.
查理·罗斯:那倒是会跟他争辩。不过有意思的是这一点——为什么他能取得这样的成绩?你曾跟我聊过,说他懂得如何审视财务报表,找出关键信息,哪怕那信息藏在一个脚注里。
Charlie Rose: That will argue with him. Here is what interests me. Why is he -- does he the record he does? And you have said in a conversation with me he understands how to look at accounting statements and find the telling point. And it may be in a footnote.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:确实如此。
Carol J. Loomis: That's true.
查理·罗斯:这样一来,他就能看到机会,看到未来。
Charlie Rose: So that he'll see opportunity and see the future.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:他会的。他有这样一种本事——我认为很少有投资者能与之匹敌。他对商业有着广博而深厚的了解,这话我大概跟你说过。所以当新东西出现时,他脑子里有一个参照框架可以把它放进去。再加上他那份理性——我觉得确实只有极少数人——
Carol J. Loomis: He will. He has a -- an ability to do that that I think is matched by very few other investors. And he has this broad, extensive knowledge of business and I think maybe I said this to you. So when something new comes up, he has a frame of reference in which to place it. And then he adds this rationality that I really think just a handful --
查理·罗斯:你说的理性是指什么?
Charlie Rose: What do you mean by rationality?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,他在考虑是否买入时,不会让情绪主导。他以非常理性的方式来做决策,然后价格下跌他会买得更多,而大多数人在价格下跌时会恐慌抛售。他就是——在思考投资的方式上极其自律。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, he doesn't let emotion take over when he's considering whether to buy. He goes at the decision in a very rational way and then the price goes down and he buys more whereas most people panic and sell when the price goes down. And he just is -- he's extremely disciplined in the way he thinks about investments.
查理·罗斯:这说起来话长,但——你是怎么把价值弄得如此透彻的?以至于价格下跌时,你知道价值没有变,于是买得更多。而且你清楚价值在哪——所以你绝不会多付一分钱。
Charlie Rose: This will take a long time to explain, but -- but how is it that you know value so well? So that if it goes down you know the value hasn't changed so you buy more. And so that you know the value -- so you're not going to pay a nickel more than the value you see.
沃伦·巴菲特:我只涉足那些我确实知道价值的情形。有——有成千上万家公司是我不知道其价值的。
Warren Buffett: I only get into the situations where I do know the value. There's -- there's thousands of companies whose value I don't know.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:但我知道——我知道自己懂的那部分——而且——而且——顺便说一句,这——你不需要做精确到小数点的判断。我的意思是,如果现在有人走进这扇门,体重在 300 到 350 磅之间,我用不着说他体重 327 磅才能断定他偏胖。
Warren Buffett: But I know -- I know the ones that I know and -- and -- and incidentally, it is -- you don't pinpoint things. I mean, if somebody walks in this door now and they weigh between 300 and 350 pounds, I don't need to say they weigh 327 to say that they're fat.
查理·罗斯:没错。
Charlie Rose: Right.
沃伦·巴菲特:所以只要——只要在这个区间内,我就能接受。不过——我也知道,有各种公司是我搞不懂的。所以我不会——所以我的确知道——我通常知道自己是否在与我能理解的公司打交道,而且我确实——会计是一门语言,而且是我喜欢的一门语言。
Warren Buffett: So if -- if they're in that zone I'm fine with it. And -- but I also know that there are all kinds of companies that I can't figure out. So I don't -- so I do know -- I usually know when I'm dealing with companies that I understand and then I do -- accounting is a language, and it's a language that I like.
查理·罗斯:你不仅理解这门语言,还很喜欢。
Charlie Rose: A language you not only understand but like.
沃伦·巴菲特:我喜欢,是的。
Warren Buffett: I like it, yes.
查理·罗斯:因为它能与你交谈。
Charlie Rose: Because it speaks to you.
沃伦·巴菲特:它确实能与我交谈——而且——而且——当它以虚假的腔调说话时,有时我也能察觉出来。所以你明白我的意思——这——这——几乎就像演奏音乐一样,你看财务报表的时候就是这种感觉。而这并非对所有的公司都成立。完全不是对所有的公司都成立。但你没有必要——我不必在那些我忽略掉的公司上做到正确。
Warren Buffett: It really speaks to me and -- and -- and when it speaks in a false voice I can detect that sometimes, too. So you know I mean it's -- yo know -- it -- it is almost like playing music, you know, when you look at an accounting statement. And that's not true of all companies. It's not true of all companies at all. But you don't have to be right about -- I don't have to be right about the ones I ignore.
查理·罗斯:当你看到一条脚注向你透露了某些信息时,你心里会有一种——
Charlie Rose: When you see a footnote that says something to you, you just feel of kind of emotional --
沃伦·巴菲特:它——秘密就在脚注里。是的,你说得对。我是说,脚注——脚注就是——
Warren Buffett: It's -- it's in the footnotes. Yes you're right. I mean the footnotes -- the footnotes are --
查理·罗斯:不论好坏,背后都有一个故事。
Charlie Rose: Good or bad, there's a story.
沃伦·巴菲特:这就是个提示。没错,而且顺便说一句,卡罗尔本人在这方面非常、非常在行。
Warren Buffett: There's a tipoff there. Yes and Carol is very, very good at this, incidentally, herself.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,跟他比起来,我在这上面的排名可差远了。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, so far down the ladder on this compared to where he is.
查理·罗斯:再看看伯克希尔的投资情况,以及——你们还持有大量可口可乐吗?
Charlie Rose: Let's look at the investments that Berkshire and some of this -- you still have a lot of Coca-Cola?
沃伦·巴菲特:非常多。是的。
Warren Buffett: A lot. Yes.
查理·罗斯:你很早就看出了那一点的价值。
Charlie Rose: You saw the value of that early on.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,还是不够早。我的意思是,我大概 1935 年就喝上了第一瓶汽水,可直到 1988 年才买它的股票。要说这桩买卖,我自个儿都得把自己归到反应迟钝那一档去。
Warren Buffett: Well, not early enough. I mean, I probably had my first soft drink in 1935 and I didn't buy the stock until 1988. So I would -- I would put me in the slow category on that one.
查理·罗斯:你还持有大量富国银行股票,而且还在继续增持。
Charlie Rose: You still have a lot of Wells Fargo and buying more.
沃伦·巴菲特:对,大量富国银行。
Warren Buffett: Yes a lot of Wells Fargo.
查理·罗斯:是啊,价值就在那里,你看到了。
Charlie Rose: Yes value there you saw.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。你寻找的要素包括——管理层是其中之一。当然,还要有某种持久的竞争优势。
Warren Buffett: Yes. And the qualities you look for -- management is one. Sure, some kind of an enduring competitive advantage.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:“持久”是关键词。我的意思是,呼啦圈曾经火过一阵子,基石什么的也都是类似的东西。
Warren Buffett: Enduring being the emphasis. I mean hula hoops were great for a while or bedrocks and all that sort of thing.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:但我喜欢——我喜欢那种我认为能放眼五年、十年,仍然能看到同样优势保持下去的东西。
Warren Buffett: But -- but I like -- I like something where I think I can look out five or ten years and still see the same sort of advantage that -- maintaining.
查理·罗斯:所以你刚刚投资了约翰迪尔。
Charlie Rose: So you just invested in John Deere.
沃伦·巴菲特:那件事不是我。不是。我们还有另外两位——
Warren Buffett: That wasn't me. No. We have two other --
查理·罗斯:好的。好的。
Charlie Rose: OK. OK.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:但你知道他们在做什么,是不是?
Charlie Rose: But you know what they're doing, do you not?
沃伦·巴菲特:不想。我不想知道他们在做什么。我不想知道他们在做什么。
Warren Buffett: No. I don't want to know what they're doing. I don't want to know what they're doing.
查理·罗斯:为什么?(听不清)你雇他们来算是——
Charlie Rose: Why is that? (INAUDIBLE) you hired to be sort of --
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我想是因为——他们管理的资金大概在 40 亿美元左右。
Warren Buffett: Well because I guess -- they manage -- they managing something around $4 billion or something like that.
查理·罗斯:你不想知道他们在做什么?
Charlie Rose: You don't want to know what they're doing?
沃伦·巴菲特:不想。我不——我——他们——他们有责任管理那笔钱。他们必须有完全的自主权。他们不能看着我的脸色行事,看我是在微笑还是皱眉,而他们的报酬取决于那些证券的表现。
Warren Buffett: No. I don't -- I -- they have -- they have the responsibility for managing that money. They've got to have full authority. They can't look at me and see whether I'm smiling or frowning over and they get paid based on how those securities do.
查理·罗斯:你曾说过你在寻找一头大象。
Charlie Rose: You have said you're hunting for a big elephant.
沃伦·巴菲特:那当然,越大越好。
Warren Buffett: You bet, the bigger the better.
查理·罗斯:多大的生意才算“大象”?
Charlie Rose: What qualifies as a big elephant?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,就我们目前的资源而言,大概从 200 亿美元起,可能稍微多一点。
Warren Buffett: Well, in terms of our present resources probably something from $20 billion maybe up a little bit.
查理·罗斯:能有多高?
Charlie Rose: How high?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这要看那头大象有多吸引人了。我是说——不是所有大象都长得一样。
Warren Buffett: Well, it would depend on how -- how attractive that elephant was. So I mean -- not all elephants look alike.
查理·罗斯:卡罗尔,马上轮到你来提问。所以你正在四处看。你会怎么进行寻找大象这件事?因为你说过,扳机就在那儿——你的手已经扣在了扳机上。
Charlie Rose: Coming to you, Carol, in just a moment. So you're looking around. How will you go about this process of looking for a big elephant? Because you've said that the trigger is -- you've got your hand on the trigger.
沃伦·巴菲特:当然。
Warren Buffett: Absolutely.
查理·罗斯:你已经准备好了,随时可以开火。
Charlie Rose: You're ready to fire.
沃伦·巴菲特:那还用说。
Warren Buffett: You bet.
查理·罗斯:你有钱。你有 450 亿美元,差不多就这个数。
Charlie Rose: You've got the money. You've got $45 billion or whatever it is.
沃伦·巴菲特:够了。
Warren Buffett: Enough.
查理·罗斯:够了。那笔钱就在你面前摆着呢。
Charlie Rose: Enough. You've got it sitting right there.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:你已经准备好出手。那你打算怎么找到这个人选?
Charlie Rose: You're prepared to do it. How are you going to find the candidate?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,如果你说的是买下整个企业——我们这里讨论的就是这种情况。
Warren Buffett: Well if you're talking about buying an entire business, which we're talking about in this case.
查理·罗斯:对,对。
Charlie Rose: Right, right.
沃伦·巴菲特:到了那个体量,这些公司我都熟悉。我是说,所有大象我都见过。每一家都见过。所以——所以问题其实是,什么时候公司里有人——
Warren Buffett: I'm familiar with all the companies when you get to that size. I mean I've seen all the elephants. I've seen them all. And so -- so it's really a question of when they -- somebody at the company, the
查理·罗斯:是的。
Ceo: Yes.
沃伦·巴菲特:——其实是在考虑做点什么。然后我就能——我很快就能判断出来——
Warren Buffett: -- is -- is actually thinking about doing something. And then I can -- I can tell very quickly --
查理·罗斯:嗯,你知道他们是否愿意——
Charlie Rose: Well you know whether they are open to --
沃伦·巴菲特:哦对,是否——主动权必须来自他们,因为,你知道,可口可乐不卖,富国银行也不卖。99% 的公司都不——
Warren Buffett: Oh yes, whether -- the initiative really has to come from -- from them because, you know, Coca-Cola isn't for sale, Wells Fargo isn't for sale. And 99 percent of the companies are not --
查理·罗斯:IBM 不卖。
Charlie Rose: IBM is not for sale.
沃伦·巴菲特:当然。而且我了解我们正在讨论的这种规模的所有公司,如果有一天我拿起电话,对方说,你知道,我们确实一直在思考,觉得成为伯克希尔的一部分会更好,那我随时准备好——
Warren Buffett: Sure. And so and I know the universe of companies of this size we're talking about and if I pick up the phone one day and somebody says, you know, we've really been thinking about things and we feel that we'd do better as a part of Berkshire, I'm ready to --
查理·罗斯:这很了不起,卡罗尔,你不觉得吗?很多公司主动找上伯克希尔·哈撒韦,它们想加入伯克希尔。
Charlie Rose: This is what's amazing, don't you think Carol, is that a lot of the companies that come to Berkshire Hathaway, they wanted to be there.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:对。完全正确。
Carol J. Loomis: That's right. That's absolutely right.
查理·罗斯:如果他们喜欢那通电话的话,我想到那家以色列公司了。
Charlie Rose: You know if they like the phone call, I'm thinking about the Israeli company.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:如果有人对你说,巴菲特先生,我能去奥马哈和你聊聊吗。
Charlie Rose: If somebody says Mr. Buffett, can I come to Omaha and talk to you.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:没错。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:而且你反应相当快,能很快判断要不要继续推进。
Charlie Rose: And you're pretty quick on the draw to figure out whether you want to go forward.
沃伦·巴菲特:五到十秒,是的。
Warren Buffett: Five or ten seconds, yes.
查理·罗斯:展开说说。
Charlie Rose: Talk about that.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,他——他——
Carol J. Loomis: Well he -- he --
查理·罗斯:因为兼并——
Charlie Rose: Because mergers --
卡罗尔·卢米斯:兼并。
Carol J. Loomis: Mergers.
查理·罗斯:还有收购。
Charlie Rose: And acquisition.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:你知道,他对于是否要进一步考虑一件事,真的是几分钟甚至几秒钟就能下定决心。而且就在那么短的时间内,他就会对电话那头的人说:“嗯,我感兴趣”或者“嗯,我觉得这不适合我们。”
Carol J. Loomis: You know he does make up his mind in literally minutes if not seconds as to whether this is something he wants to consider further. And he will, within that much time, say to the guy on the other end of the phone, "Well, I'm interested" or "Well, I don't think this is for us."
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Yes.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:他——他心里清楚。他见过这个庞大的企业世界,这就是我刚才说的。他带着这个参照框架去审视,知道这家公司拿不出什么有持久特质的东西。不像可口可乐,它能拿出某种持久的东西。
Carol J. Loomis: And -- and he knows. He's seen this great universe of companies and this is what I was talking about. He brings this frame of reference to it and knows that this company has nothing of a kind of eternal nature to offer. Like Coca-Cola has something eternal to offer.
查理·罗斯:没错。你在这本书里也谈到了他犯过的那些最大错误,对吗?
Charlie Rose: Yes. You also get in this book about biggest mistakes, right?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:谈了。
Carol J. Loomis: I do.
查理·罗斯:这家伙犯的最大错误是什么?
Charlie Rose: What's the biggest mistake this guy has made?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,沃伦自己会说,有一类失误是“不作为”——明明知道该买某只股票却没有买。他在书里举的一个例子是房利美。那是在房利美出事之前。没错,但我觉得他会及时脱手的。他确实从房地美脱手了,那次是他买了很多,并且在正确时机退出了。所以说到最大的失误,嗯,有那么几次,他是被行为失当的人所伤害。这一点毫无疑问。嗯,他们确实——但我想到的这个人,大卫·索科尔,曾经为伯克希尔·哈撒韦做出了极大的贡献,所以我不认为沃伦有可能预见到,当某些事实摆在面前时,大卫·索科尔会做出那种不妥的举动。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, Warren himself would say that there -- that there are acts of omission where he has known that he should buy a stock and hasn't bought it. One of that he cited there is Fannie Mae. This is before Fannie Mae got into trouble. That's right but he would have gotten out, I think. But he did get out of Freddie Mac, which was a case where he bought a lot and did get out at the right time. And so the biggest mistakes, well, a couple of times he's been hurt by people who erred in the way that they acted. There's no question about that. Well they were -- but this is the person that I'm thinking about had done a remarkable amount -- David Sokol-- had done a remarkable amount for Berkshire Hathaway and so I don't think it was something that Warren could have known that presented with a certain set of facts that David Sokol acted in a way that didn't work.
查理·罗斯:我敢说你肯定也问过自己这个问题,对吧?
Charlie Rose: I bet you asked yourself that question, didn't you?
沃伦·巴菲特:对。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:我怎么会没看出来——
Charlie Rose: How could I have not seen --
沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道答案。
Warren Buffett: I don't know the answer.
查理·罗斯:你不知道,你永远也不可能知道。你有没有在脑子里复盘过——
Charlie Rose: You don't, could never. Did you review in your mind --
沃伦·巴菲特:而且他确实为伯克希尔做了很多好事。
Warren Buffett: And he did a lot of good things for Berkshire.
查理·罗斯:对,那当然。
Charlie Rose: Yes of course.
沃伦·巴菲特:是。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:但你也说过,最难做的事——虽然不常发生——就是解雇一个人。
Charlie Rose: But you've said the hardest thing to do -- and it doesn't happen that often is to fire somebody.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。这件事——这件事确实极其难受。不过——你知道,我也不常需要做。但我宁愿花一大笔钱,雇一个专门负责解雇的人。可问题是——问题是我做不到,因为这些人都是我的朋友。
Warren Buffett: Yes. It's -- it's absolutely miserable. But -- and you know, I don't have to do it very often. But I'd pay a lot of money to have a designated firer. But the trouble is -- the trouble is I can't do it because these are people who are friends of mine.
查理·罗斯:你——有一期封面故事——你得提醒我是哪一期——我想应该是你写的那篇重磅特写,讲的是你从投资者到首席执行官兼管理者的转变。
Charlie Rose: You -- one of these cover stories -- and you have to remind me which one it was -- signal, I think it was the one you wrote, the big profile, of the transition from investor to CEO and manager.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:是的。
Carol J. Loomis: Yes.
查理·罗斯:这说明——沃伦·巴菲特也具备那样的能力。
Charlie Rose: Showing that -- that Warren Buffett had those skills as well.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:没错。书里确实有几篇文章很能说明这一点。但我想你心里想的是那篇《沃伦·巴菲特内幕》。
Carol J. Loomis: Right. Well, there are several articles in the book that really pertain to that. But I think the one that you have in mind is "The Inside Story of Warren Buffett."
查理·罗斯:那是第一篇重大人物特写。
Charlie Rose: That was the first big profile.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:是一篇重磅特写。那也是我写沃伦的第一篇长文,此前我只写过两段那种小短文。那是 1988 年,他当时正在经历转型。那时他手上有六家公司,他称它们为“圣徒六家”——六家还是七家?
Carol J. Loomis: That's a big profile. And it was the first big article I ever wrote about Warren. I'd only written two paragraphs that kind of thing. And it was 1988 and he was making a transition then. At the time he had six companies that he called the sainted six -- six or seven?
沃伦·巴菲特:我记得是七家。
Warren Buffett: I think it was seven.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:七家,没错,是“七圣徒”。里面还有像费希海默(Fetchheimer)这样的公司——
Carol J. Loomis: Seven that's right, Sainted Seven. And names like Fetchheimer that you are --
查理·罗斯:对,对。
Charlie Rose: Right, right.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:——这类公司名字可能不像现在这么响当当,哪怕到了今天也是。
Carol J. Loomis: -- that you know they don't ring wildly but even now.
查理·罗斯:是的。
Charlie Rose: Right.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:然而——他当时显然正朝着那个方向前进,查理也在帮他,因为查理向他指出了像喜诗糖果这类企业的优点。他们彼时确实正在经历转型:从一家以投资见长的公司,转变为一家以旗下全资拥有的企业著称的公司。而且即便在今天,我也认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦被低估了。沃伦没有被低估。但伯克希尔·哈撒韦的实力和威力,我确实觉得有点儿被低估了。
Carol J. Loomis: And -- but he was clearly headed in that direction and Charlie was helping him because Charlie was pointing out to him the virtues of things like C's Candy. And they were really at that moment transitioning to a company that had been distinguished by its investments to a company distinguished by the companies that it owned entirely. And even today I think that Berkshire Hathaway is underestimated. Warren is not underestimated. But Berkshire Hathaway and its power and might I do think is a little bit underestimated.
查理·罗斯:但你也以善于放权而闻名。
Charlie Rose: But you have a reputation for delegation.
沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。说实在的,这该叫“甩手不管”。我喜欢让别人干活,查理。
Warren Buffett: Yes. Abdication, actually, is what you call it. I like other people to do the work, Charlie.
查理·罗斯:可你并没有待在哪个地方的游艇上享清闲。你并没有——
Charlie Rose: But you're not out on a boat somewhere. You're not out --
沃伦·巴菲特:没有。
Warren Buffett: No.
查理·罗斯:——你并非因为想去做别的事才放手不管。你想做的,恰恰是你长久以来每天在做的那同一件事。
Charlie Rose: -- you know, you don't delegate because you want to go do something else. What you want to do is the same thing you've been doing everyday for a long time.
沃伦·巴菲特:当然,是的。我喜欢了解事态的进展,但我不想指挥乐队,我只想听它演奏。
Warren Buffett: You bet, yes. I like knowing what's going on but I don't want to direct the orchestra, I want to listen to it.
查理·罗斯:我曾经问过,资本配置是什么——他会怎么定义——他说:“嗯,他们把资金送到奥马哈。”这就是资本配置。
Charlie Rose: I once asked what was the allocation of capital -- how would he define -- he said "Well, they send the money to Omaha." That's what allocation of capital is.
沃伦·巴菲特:我变聪明了。我就是这样做的。
Warren Buffett: I got wise. I do that.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:子公司的 CEO 们说他们根本不用操心这个。把钱往奥马哈一寄,完事。
Carol J. Loomis: And the CEOs of the subsidiary say they don't even have to worry about it. They just ship it off to Omaha and that's it.
查理·罗斯:我们来赚,你来花。你是不是觉得这就是伯克希尔·哈撒韦了不起的地方?
Charlie Rose: We'll make it, you spend it. Is that your idea of what makes Berkshire Hathaway great?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我们每年有 120 亿到 130 亿美元可以调配。
Warren Buffett: Well, we've got this $12 billion or $13 billion a year to work with.
查理·罗斯:好,这些都是智慧箴言。投资法则:法则一:永远不要亏钱。法则二:永远不要忘记法则一。说到职业建议,我觉得这一点很重要。我总是告诉大学生,要选择那份就算你已经财务自由也会去做的职业。你在这份工作上会干得很出色。你我都知道,确实如此。
Charlie Rose: All right, these are some pearls of wisdom. Rules of investment: Rule number one: never lose money. Rule Number two: never forget rule number one. And on a career advice I think this is very important. I always tell college students to take the job that you would take if you were independently wealthy. You're going to do well at it. You and I, true.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:确实如此。你知道大多数公司都会认可才干。所以你该做的是进一家公司,展现自己有多出色,然后就会被提拔上来。
Carol J. Loomis: That's absolutely true. You know that in most companies merit is recognized. And so what you need to do is to get into a company and show how good you are and you will get pushed up.
查理·罗斯:我就是这么说的。
Charlie Rose: That's exactly what I say.
沃伦·巴菲特:我 23 岁那年搬到了纽约。那时我们已经有了一个孩子,第二个也快出生了,我去给本·格雷厄姆打工——他是我心目中的英雄。我压根不知道自己的薪水是多少,直到第一次拿到工资条才看到。我从没问过工资多少,我就知道这份工作我求之不得。
Warren Buffett: I moved to New York when I was 23. We had a child, we another one on the way and I took a job with Ben Graham, who was my hero. And I did not know my paycheck until I got -- my pay until I got my first paycheck. I never asked what the salary was. I just knew I would love the job.
查理·罗斯:他和您父亲仍然是——对您影响最大的人。
Charlie Rose: He and your dad still remain the people that had the most influence on you in terms of --
沃伦·巴菲特:他们确实影响巨大,但我的贵人不止这些。比如乔·罗森菲尔德、汤姆·墨菲,当然还有我的妻子们。卡罗尔也对我影响极大。
Warren Buffett: Well, they were huge but I've had others, too. I mean, yes, Joe Rosenfield, Tom Murphy. Certainly my wives. Carol's had a lot of influence on me.
查理·罗斯:她跟你打过桥牌。
Charlie Rose: She played bridge with you.
沃伦·巴菲特:她的影响真的很大。
Warren Buffett: She's just had a lot of influence.
查理·罗斯:那你呢——你每天都给她打电话。
Charlie Rose: What would you -- you call her up every day.
沃伦·巴菲特:几乎每天。
Warren Buffett: Just about every day.
查理·罗斯:还是她天天给你打电话?
Charlie Rose: Or she calls you every day?
沃伦·巴菲特:不是,是我打给她。
Warren Buffett: No I call her.
查理·罗斯:你打给她。
Charlie Rose: You call her.
沃伦·巴菲特:差不多每天都打。
Warren Buffett: Just about every day.
查理·罗斯:那你们聊些什么?你看到这个了吗?就是那种——
Charlie Rose: So what's the conversation about? Did you see this? It's the kind of thing that --
沃伦·巴菲特:就看当时在发生什么事了。
Warren Buffett: Just depends what's going on.
查理·罗斯:你读了这篇报道没?就那类的事?
Charlie Rose: Did you read this story? That kind of thing?
沃伦·巴菲特:有的是可聊的。
Warren Buffett: There's plenty to talk about.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:没错。重大商业事件之类的,你知道的。我们最近倒没怎么忙——
Carol J. Loomis: Right. Big business events, you know. We haven't been so busy with our --
沃伦·巴菲特:你昨晚那期节目。
Warren Buffett: Your show last night.
查理·罗斯:你第二天早上锻炼的时候会看。这又是另一回事了。“互联网改变不了人们嚼口香糖的习惯。每当我观察互联网的时候,我都在琢磨,一个行业或一家公司会怎样被它伤害或改变,然后我就避开它。”
Charlie Rose: Which you see the next morning while you're working out. This is another thing. "The Internet won't change chewing gum. When I look at the Internet, I try to figure out how an industry or company can be hurt or changed by it and then I avoid it.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:对。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:拿箭牌来说吧,我不认为互联网会改变人们嚼口香糖的方式。
Charlie Rose: Take Wrigley's, I don't think the Internet is going to change the way people chew gum.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:对。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
沃伦·巴菲特:这个嘛,你知道,创新对社会来说是极为重要的。但它们也打乱了很多东西,你知道,我在书里的一篇文章中拿汽车行业举过例子。当时有几千家汽车公司,只有少数几家活了下来——还只是勉强不赔钱。所以说,汽车行业极为重要,我很高兴它被发明出来。飞机也极为重要。但是,如果把从奥维尔在基蒂霍克试飞成功之后航空业发生的所有事加在一起,某个资本家当初就该把他打下来——因为他让我们亏了太多钱。
Warren Buffett: Well, you know, the innovations are enormously important for society. But they disrupt a lot of things and, you know, I used in one of the articles in the book the auto industry. There's a couple thousand auto companies and a few succeeded-- barely. So auto was enormously important. I love the fact that it was invented. The airplane was enormously important. But if you take all of what's happened in the airline industry since Orville was down there in it Kitty Hawk, some capitalist should have shot him down because he's cost us money.
查理·罗斯:航空业到底哪里不对?
Charlie Rose: What's wrong with the airline industry?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,它碰巧在卖一种被普遍视为大宗商品的东西。航空公司的增量座位成本几乎为零,所以它们总有一种诱惑,想不惜任何代价填满最后一个座位。而当你有四五个家伙都在试图不惜任何代价填满最后一个座位时,你就得不到什么好价格了。
Warren Buffett: Well, it happens to be selling something that's regarded as very much a commodity product. The incremental seat cost for the airline is nothing. So they have this temptation to try to fill the last seat at any price. And if you get four or five guys that trying to fill the last seat at any price you do not get very good prices.
查理·罗斯:而这些是会跌的。
Charlie Rose: And these go down.
沃伦·巴菲特:这个行业的结构决定了,要建立持续的竞争优势极其困难。你得在飞机上投入巨额固定资产。飞机买来了,花掉你几亿美元,然后你要填满座位——你从报纸上看到竞争对手在收什么价,你就得收同样的价。这个行业的结构层面非常糟糕。而我偏偏买进去了。
Warren Buffett: It' structurally set up so that it's very, very difficult to have a sustained competitive advantage. And you get this enormous fixed investment in planes. Now you've got the plane. It cost you a couple hundred million and you're trying to fill a seat and you read in the newspaper today what your competitor is charging and you have to charge the same price. It's got terrible structural aspects to it. And I bought into it.
查理·罗斯:你还买入了铁路行业。
Charlie Rose: You also bought into the railroad industry.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:货运铁路行业。
Charlie Rose: Freight carrying railroad industry.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:伯灵顿——
Charlie Rose: Burlington --
沃伦·巴菲特:北伯林顿铁路公司。
Warren Buffett: BNSF.
查理·罗斯:伯灵顿——
Charlie Rose: Burlington --
沃伦·巴菲特:——圣塔菲。
Warren Buffett: -- Northern Santa Fe.
查理·罗斯:——北伯林顿铁路公司,对。你为什么买它?
Charlie Rose: -- Northern Santa Fe, right. Why did you do that?
沃伦·巴菲特:铁路行业承担了全美城际货运吨位的 42%。一加仑柴油就能把一吨货物运 500 英里。我是说,这是一种效率极高的运输方式。现在美国有四家大型铁路公司。以后也不会再建新的铁路线了,从现在算起,50 年甚至 100 年后,铁路仍将是货物运输的骨干。
Warren Buffett: Well, the railroad industry carries 42 percent of all tonnage intercity. It carries -- carrying a ton of cargo 500 miles on as gallon of diesel. I mean it's an enormously efficient way of moving things. And now you have four huge railroads in the United States. They're not going to build any more of them and it will be the backbone of the movement of goods 50 years from now or 100 years from now.
查理·罗斯:你在衍生品上走过怎样的历程?
Charlie Rose: What's this history with derivatives?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:嗯,我得说,他在衍生品上有一段毁誉参半的历史。首先,书里最精彩的故事之一来自 1987 年,就在那年股市崩盘之后,他给丁格尔议员写了一封信,在信中他警告——
Carol J. Loomis: Well, he has a checkered history with derivatives, I'd say. First of all, one of the best stories in the book is from 1987 right after the crash of '87 and it's a letter that he wrote Congressman Dingle in which he warned --
查理·罗斯:约翰·丁格尔。
Charlie Rose: John Dingle.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:——对,完全正确——在那封信里,他警告了指数期货交易可能带来的后果——指数期货交易——当时国会正要批准指数期货交易,后来也确实批准了。沃伦对此发出了警告,如果当时有人听他的,我觉得我们今天会好得多,他一直——所以那是关于衍生品很早的一件事。
Carol J. Loomis: -- right. Absolutely -- in which he warned about what could happen with index -- trading futures -- index trading futures -- trading of index which was just then being about to be approved by Congress and was approved by it. And Warren warned about that and if he had been listened to I think we would be far better off today and he has always -- so that's an early thing about derivatives.
查理·罗斯:所以你也看到了他——请接着说。
Charlie Rose: So you saw him -- go ahead.
沃伦·巴菲特:我记得那封信实际上是 1982 年写的。
Warren Buffett: I think I actually wrote the letter in '82.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:嗯,你是 1982 年写的,但我们在 1987 年股灾之后才把它刊登出来。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, you wrote in the '82 but we printed it in '87 after the crash.
沃伦·巴菲特:在出问题之后。
Warren Buffett: After the troubles.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:对。
Carol J. Loomis: Right.
查理·罗斯:信是你写的,但直到 1987 年才刊登?
Charlie Rose: You wrote the letter but it wasn't printed until '87?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:《财富》杂志刊登了那篇文章。不过说到衍生品,我对沃伦的评价是,他确实无法对定价错误的证券视而不见。我觉得他——
Carol J. Loomis: "Fortune" printed it and ran it. But then on derivatives, what I say about Warren is that he really cannot ignore securities that have -- are mispriced. I think that he has --
沃伦·巴菲特:这让你看出来了,是吧?
Warren Buffett: You noticed that, huh?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:你知道,他不会跑去买原棉或那一类的东西,就算买也不常买。但在他眼里,衍生品经常是被错误定价的。
Carol J. Loomis: You know, he doesn't go out and buy raw cotton or anything like that, or not very often. But derivatives in his eyes have often been mispriced.
查理·罗斯:那对他来说,是错失机会了。
Charlie Rose: Missed opportunity for him.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:所以一方面——一方面,他会在年报里写文章警示衍生品的风险,另一方面他又会去买那些明显被错误定价的品种。
Carol J. Loomis: So on the one hand -- on one hand, he will be writing in the annual report warning about derivatives and over on the other hand he'll be buying those that are clearly mispriced.
查理·罗斯:巴菲特先生,我恳请您说说。
Charlie Rose: Mr. Buffett, I plead you.
沃伦·巴菲特:这个——我们持有 200 来份——我们持有的每一份衍生品我都一清二楚,全都是我亲手买的。话说回来,我们收购了一家叫通用再保险的公司,它手里有 23,000 份衍生品,我们为清掉那些头寸足足亏了 4 亿美元。我们想把每一份都清掉——现在还剩一点——
Warren Buffett: Well I -- we have 200 -- I know every single derivative we own and they're all the product of my purchase. Now, we've bought a company called General Rhee which had 23,000 and it cost us $400 million before we got out of those. We tried to liquidate every one -- there's still a few --
查理·罗斯:能多快就多快。
Charlie Rose: As fast as you could.
沃伦·巴菲特:没错。但我挑的那 200 来份,你知道,我觉得还是能赚钱的。而且每一份我都了如指掌。我认为当你面对的是——你看雷曼大概有上百万份合约,就会面临巨大的对手方风险。我们接手通用再保险时——有 900 多家交易对手。其中有三四百家我根本不知道是谁,连名字都念不出来。我的意思是,这可不是我理解中的审慎财务。
Warren Buffett: Absolutely. But the 200 and some that I picked, you know, I think we'll make money on. But I'm a familiar with every one of those. I think when you have an -- well Lehman had probably a million and you get huge counterparty risks. General Rhee when we went in -- we had over 900 counterparties. I didn't know who 300 or 400 of them were. I couldn't pronounce their names. I mean that is not my idea of prudent finance.
查理·罗斯:多德-弗兰克法案难道不是在说衍生品吗?
Charlie Rose: Doesn't Dodd-Frank speak to derivatives?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:有一点吧。但我跟沃伦一样,没有通篇读过,也没有写过相关文章——要是写过,我确实会有想法。不过我说不出特别强烈的——沃尔克规则挺合我意的。
Carol J. Loomis: It does, to some extent. But I'm like Warren, I haven't read the whole thing and I have not written about in which case I really would have an opinion. But I could not express a strong -- the Volcker Rule appeals to me.
查理·罗斯:这个吸引你吗?
Charlie Rose: Does it appeal to you?
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,这很吸引我。
Warren Buffett: Yes, it appeals to me.
查理·罗斯:这是正确的事?
Charlie Rose: It's the right thing?
沃伦·巴菲特:总体而言,是的。我觉得——不,我是说——我觉得银行越老老实实做纯粹的银行业务,我就越喜欢。我的意思是,它们从美国政府那里拿到了一张经济特许权,因为人们把存款看作是有美国政府担保的。这话不完全准确,但大家就是这么认为的——当你能够从那些觉得有美国政府兜底的人那里吸收资金时,无论你的信用好不好,他们都会把钱给你。所以你需要一些切实的监管,来确保人们不会拿着这张特许权胡来。银行拿着这些资金、享受着这份信任,能干出一些极其出格的事。尤其是当——盈利归管理层所有的时候。我不担心股东的道德风险。股东在这些银行里全都被干掉了,但管理层赚了大把的钱,而且没有落得血本无归的下场。
Warren Buffett: In general. Yes. I think -- no but I think -- I think the more banks stick with just pure banking the better I like it. I mean they have a franchise from the United States government in that people look at their deposits as guaranteed by the U.S. government. That's not totally correct but that's what they -- and when you have the ability to take in money from people who feel that they have the U.S. government behind it, they're going to give you money whether you're credit worthy or not. And therefore you need some real regulation to make sure that people don't go wild with that franchise. And banks with those funds and with that trust can some do some pretty extreme things. Particularly when they've go -- the upside belongs to management. I don't worry about moral hazard with stockholders. Stockholders get killed in all these banks but the management's made lots of money and they didn't go away broke.
查理·罗斯:你怎么评价——我是说,我觉得这属于同一类问题——2008 年发生的事和次贷危机?
Charlie Rose: How do you assess -- I mean, this is part of that, I think-- what happened in 2008 and the subprime?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,不光是次贷的问题,而是——我们离场了——
Warren Buffett: Well, it wasn't just subprime but it was -- we left --
查理·罗斯:那是其中一部分原因。
Charlie Rose: That was part of it.
沃伦·巴菲特:我们经历了一个全球前所未见的房地产泡沫。房地产市场在顶峰时价值约 22 万亿美元,而当时美国的总资产大概在 60 万亿美元左右。所以那是个巨大的资产。有 5000 万个家庭拿它做抵押借款,借了大概 11 到 12 万亿美元。这相当于,人们本质上是用保证金持有一个存在巨大泡沫的资产。而且人们认为它只会涨不会跌,就像 20 年代人们觉得股票只会涨不会跌一样。所以当那个泡沫破裂时——不仅限于房地产领域——冲击波就开始在整个经济中蔓延。我们后来发现,几乎每一家美国公司都是一块巨大的多米诺骨牌,它们彼此紧挨着排成一排,然后开始一个接一个倒下。
Warren Buffett: We had a housing bubble like the world has never seen. Well, housing was $22 trillion at the peak out of maybe total assets in the United States of $60 trillion or something. So it was an enormous asset. 50 million people, families, had borrowed against that and they borrowed $11 or $12 trillion. So you had an asset that had a huge bubble that was owned on margin, basically. And people thought it could do nothing but go up just like in the '20s they thought stocks could do nothing but go up. So when that bubble burst -- not only in housing -- it just started rippling through the economy. And we found out that almost every company in the United States was a big domino and they were lined up very close to each other and they started toppling.
查理·罗斯:你觉得那家公司的高管当时清楚自己在干什么吗?
Charlie Rose: Do you believe the executive there knew what they were doing?
沃伦·巴菲特:他们没有预见到多米诺骨牌开始倒塌的后果。我是说,当骨牌倒下时,最终会波及每一个人,而人们没有意识到这些骨牌有多大,彼此之间有多近。我是说,人们盯着房地美和房利美——它们差不多是 9 月份最早陷入麻烦的。然后是华盛顿互助银行、雷曼兄弟、美林也岌岌可危,突然之间人们意识到,如果他们有银行授信额度……(听不清)……这种事根本不可能发生。所以那是我见过最接近——最疯狂的恐慌。
Warren Buffett: Well, they did not see the consequences of the dominos starting to topple. I mean people -- when the dominos topple, eventually they get to everybody and people did not realize how big they were, how close to each other they were. I mean people looked at Freddie and Fanny which were the first ones to get in trouble in September, more or less. And then WaMu then Lehman and then Merrill was going and all of a sudden people realized if they had bank lines that (INAUDIBLE) it wasn't going to happen so it was as close -- to the wildest panic I ever saw.
查理·罗斯:你见过的最疯狂的一次?
Charlie Rose: The wildest you ever saw?
沃伦·巴菲特:远远不止。
Warren Buffett: By far.
查理·罗斯:你是在哪一年退出了对冲基金这个行业的——
Charlie Rose: You got out of the hedge fund business in --
卡罗尔·卢米斯:1969 年——1969 年底。
Carol J. Loomis: 19-- end of 1969.
查理·罗斯:你退出是因为……?
Charlie Rose: You got out because?
沃伦·巴菲特:我退出是因为我不——在那之前我的业绩一直不错。有那么多人都指望着我,可我觉得市场已经变得非常投机,我不知道在那个阶段该怎么赚钱。我又太好胜了,不想让自己的表现比别人差太多,可我也不想去做他们正在做的那一套。所以唯一的办法就是把钱还回去,我就把钱还了。
Warren Buffett: I got out because I didn't -- I had a good record up until then. I had all these people counting on me and I thought things were getting very speculative and I didn't know how to make money in that period and I was competitive enough to feel that I didn't want to do lousy compared to other people and yet I didn't want to do the things they were doing. So the only thing to do was give the money back and I gave the money back.
查理·罗斯:你怎么看如今的对冲基金?
Charlie Rose: What do you think of hedge funds today?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我觉得——我打过一场著名的赌,卡罗尔一直在帮我记着,我赌的是对冲基金——一大群对冲基金和基金的基金,长期跑不赢标普指数。
Warren Buffett: Well, I think that -- I made a famous bet that carol has been keeping track of where I'm betting that hedge -- a large group of hedge funds, funds of funds will underperform the S&P over time.
查理·罗斯:赌注是什么?
Charlie Rose: What's the bet?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我们其实有一个百万美元的慈善赌约,挂在一个叫“Long Bets”的网站里。但是,给自己挂个“对冲基金”的名头,并不会给你带来什么特殊的赚钱门道,而且这行的费用非常、非常高。我不认为对冲基金的整体业绩会好过标普 500 指数——你买这个指数只需要花——
Warren Buffett: Well, we've got a million-dollar bet for charity actually out in -- something called long bets. But calling yourself a hedge fund does not make -- it gives you no special way to make money and the fees associated with it are very, very high. And I'm -- I do not think the results of hedge funds in aggregate will be better than the S&P which you can buy for --
查理·罗斯:在那些你跑不赢标普 500 的年份……
Charlie Rose: In the couple years that you didn't do as well as the S& P.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,是有好些年。是的。
Warren Buffett: Well, there's been a number of years. Yes.
查理·罗斯:你对此感觉如何?
Charlie Rose: How does that make you feel?
沃伦·巴菲特:这让我觉得明年得干得更漂亮些。我是说,这是我的本分。
Warren Buffett: Makes me feel like I better do better next year. I mean that's my job.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:你注意到他这个人有多好胜吗?
Carol J. Loomis: Have you noticed he's competitive?
沃伦·巴菲特:如果我不这样,就不会干这行。随着时间推移——
Warren Buffett: I wouldn't be in this business if I wasn't. Over time --
查理·罗斯:还有一个总被人问到的问题,就是接班。你说过,董事会此刻就知道我的继任者是谁。
Charlie Rose: There's also the question which always is asked of you is succession. You have said the board of directors knows who my successor is as of this moment.
沃伦·巴菲特:他们明天就知道。如果我今晚去世,明天一早他们就会任命自己知道的那个人。
Warren Buffett: They know tomorrow. If I die tonight, tomorrow morning they will appoint somebody they know.
查理·罗斯:而他们任命的那个人并不知道自己就是那个人选。
Charlie Rose: and the person they appoint does not know he is the one to be appointed.
沃伦·巴菲特:没错。
Warren Buffett: That's correct.
查理·罗斯:那这个角色会和你现在的角色一样吗?
Charlie Rose: And will the role be the same role that you have?
沃伦·巴菲特:不,那将是我一半的角色。负责运营旗下企业,而托德和特德(听不清)——他们将负责投资。他们将负责投资。我的工作将一分为二。
Warren Buffett: No, it will be half my role. It will be running the businesses and there will be -- Todd and Ted (INAUDIBLE) -- they will run investments. They will run investments. My job will be split.
查理·罗斯:但经营这些企业对你来说,和从小浸淫其中的投资领域一样重要吗?
Charlie Rose: But is running the businesses as important to you as the investment aspect of it which you grew up on?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,随着时间的推移,经营好这些企业会变得越来越重要,这是肯定的。现在已经如此了。
Warren Buffett: Well, running the businesses will be more important over time, sure. It is right now.
查理·罗斯:但它对你来说,心理上的烙印还是一样的吗——
Charlie Rose: But does it have the same psychic imprint to you --
沃伦·巴菲特:经营一家企业带来的精神满足感更强。
Warren Buffett: Running a business has more psychic satisfaction.
查理·罗斯:你和比尔·盖茨的这段友谊,你和我聊过很多次——既和你聊过,也和比尔聊过。但对今天在座的观众来说——从你们俩在比尔母亲家共进晚餐的那一刻讲起,当时比尔的父亲开始问问题,问你们最欣赏对方什么品质,我记得比尔说的是专注。
Charlie Rose: This friendship with Bill Gates, you and I have talked about this many time, with you and with Bill. But for this audience at this moment -- from the moment that you two had dinner together at Bill's mother's house and Bill's father started asking questions about what was the quality that most admired and I think Bill said focus.
沃伦·巴菲特:我们俩都回答了专注。没错。
Warren Buffett: We both answered focus. Yes.
查理·罗斯:后来在苏茜去世后,你决定要做她本来会做的事,就是进行慈善捐赠,你选择了比尔,因为你认为盖茨基金会做的方向是对的?
Charlie Rose: And then you make a decision that when it came time after Susie's death that you wanted to do what she would have done to make -- do philanthropic contribution you chose Bill because you thought that the Gates Foundation did it right?
沃伦·巴菲特:我选了五家基金会,但盖茨基金会是最大的一家。
Warren Buffett: I chose five foundations but the Gates was the largest one.
查理·罗斯:最大的一家。但这段友谊本身是因什么而生的?
Charlie Rose: Big one. But the friendship itself is born out of what?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我——这就跟查理·芒格一样,你会觉得对方非常有意思,觉得他们值得信任。我是说,你和他们在一起很开心,但——有一点很重要,有五家基金会。我刚把我给每个孩子基金会的捐款翻了一倍。所以他们每家都有超过 20 亿美元,但他们没办法像比尔那样扩大规模。他是在一个庞大的规模上运作。
Warren Buffett: Well, I'm -- it's like with Charlie Munger, you find the other person very interesting. You find them trustworthy. I mean you have a good time with them and -- but it's important to point out that there are five foundations. I just doubled what I give to each one of my children's foundation. So they have over two billion each there but they couldn't scale up the same way as Bill. He' operating on a scale.
查理·罗斯:而比尔基金会的那笔钱——
Charlie Rose: And the mount for Bill's Foundation --
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,还是——可能和以前差不多。按递减余额的 5% 计算,如果一只股票每年涨幅超过 5%,那实际上这个数字还会不断增加。
Warren Buffett: Yes, it would be -- it's probably still about the same. It's five percent of a declining balance so if a stock goes up more than five percent a year the amount actually keeps increasing.
查理·罗斯:你认识他这么久,和他聊了这么多,你对他这个人有什么好奇的地方?
Charlie Rose: What is it -- knowing this man as long as you have, shared as many conversations as you have, what are you curious about with respect to him?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:嗯,我搞不懂他怎么总有那么充沛的精力。我觉得他是从跟你们交流这种场合中汲取能量的。他在这方面真是让人佩服。他一直在外面跑来跑去,我倒担心自己会先累垮。我好奇什么?嗯,有时候我会想知道,他内心深处怎么看待自己那些可能不算完美的投资。不过我倒没有太多好奇的地方,因为我知道的已经非常多了。
Carol J. Loomis: Well, I don't see how he has as much energy as he constantly has. I think he draws energy from being out like talking to you. He's amazing about that. I worry about my getting tired while he's just out there just running around all the time. What am I curious about? Well, I wonder what he thinks in his innermost thoughts sometimes about some of his maybe not perfect investments. But I'm not curious about a lot because I know an awful lot.
沃伦·巴菲特:那本书的每一章她都了如指掌。相信我,她——她全都知道。
Warren Buffett: She knows every chapter of the book. Believe me, she knows -- she knows it all.
查理·罗斯:我知道不少。
Charlie Rose: I know a lot of it.
沃伦·巴菲特:我知道你确实如此。
Warren Buffett: I know you do.
卡罗尔·卢米斯:你知道吗,写这本书其实让我把自己知道的所有东西都重新梳理了一遍。
Carol J. Loomis: And you know, doing the book, as a matter of fact, kind of refreshed everything that I knew.
查理·罗斯:还有这么一件事。伯克希尔·哈撒韦已经超越了通用电气。按市值算,它现在是第六大公司了?市值?
Charlie Rose: There was this item, too. Berkshire Hathaway has overcome General Electric. It's now the sixth largest company in terms of market value? Market cap?
沃伦·巴菲特:我是说,在这一点上我并不意外。
Warren Buffett: I mean look -- that doesn't surprise me in this area.
查理·罗斯:这对你有什么意义吗?
Charlie Rose: Does that mean anything to you?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,它的意思是——
Warren Buffett: Well, it means --
查理·罗斯:我猜也是。我猜也是。
Charlie Rose: I bet it does. I bet it does.
沃伦·巴菲特:我想说的是——真正有意义的是让它长期跑赢大盘。我的工作就是让我的投资者获得比他们自己操作更好的回报。因为我们留存了所有收益,规模已经非常庞大,但还会变得更大。
Warren Buffett: What it means -- what means something is having it outperform the general market over time. I mean that -- my job is to do better for my investors than they would do if they were doing it themselves. And since we retain all the earnings, we've gotten very large, but we'll get a lot larger.
查理·罗斯:你第一次见到他的时候,伯克希尔·哈撒韦股价大概是 22 美元一股,差不多吧?
Charlie Rose: When you first met him, I think Berkshire Hathaway was $22 a share, something like that?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:没错。
Carol J. Loomis: That's right.
查理·罗斯:现在是 133 美元?
Charlie Rose: It is now $133?
卡罗尔·卢米斯:我今天不知道股价多少,但每股 13 万美元。而同一只股票,从 22 美元涨到 133 美元。真是了不起。
Carol J. Loomis: I don't know what it is today but $130,000 a share. And that's the same stock, $22 to $133. It's remarkable.
查理·罗斯:那我还是把话题拉回国民健康问题和全球经济吧。欧洲呢?
Charlie Rose: Let me just come back to the nation's health and the global economy. Europe?
沃伦·巴菲特:欧洲仍在某种程度上持续下行。我们有些业务遍布全球,实际上亚洲刚刚经历了最快的增长,但也在——也在有所回落。
Warren Buffett: Europe is still drifting downward to some degree. I mean we have businesses that operate worldwide and actually Asia's coming off the best rate of growth but they're coming -- they're coming down somewhat.
查理·罗斯:不再是两位数增长了?
Charlie Rose: No longer in double digits?
沃伦·巴菲特:欧洲已经走弱了一段时间了,而美国实际上,比起六个月或九个月前,可以说现在是最强的。房地产正大幅回暖。
Warren Buffett: Europe has been sliding, you know, for some time and the U.S. actually is I would say strongest relative to where it was six months ago or nine months ago. The housing is coming back big time.
查理·罗斯:那新兴市场国家呢?我的意思是,就连巴西都涨上去了。
Charlie Rose: And the emerging nations? I mean even Brazil, they're all higher.
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。但在我看来,五年后、十年后,世界各地的状况都会比现在更好。
Warren Buffett: Yes. But five years from now, ten years from now, the world everywhere will be doing better, in my view.
查理·罗斯:为什么?
Charlie Rose: Because?
沃伦·巴菲特:就因为资本主义和市场体系确实有效。我是说,这套体系从 1776 年就在这里运转了,可不是因为我们 1794 年搞了什么刺激计划。是因为,你知道,这套制度——我们的制度释放了人的潜力。我们有三亿一千二百万美国人,人人都想明天比今天过得更好,从长期来看,这就会起作用。人类潜力在很大程度上仍未开发,而我们的制度确实能随着时间把它释放出来。这个过程走走停停,但这个国家一直在前进,并且会继续前进。在我看来,从概率上说,历史上最幸运的人,就是今天在美国出生的那个婴儿。
Warren Buffett: Just because capitalism and market systems work. I mean it's been working since 1776 here and it wasn't because we had stimulus programs in 1794. It's because, you know, a system -- our system unleashes people's potential and we've got 312 million people that want to do better tomorrow than today and over time that works. Human potential is still untapped to a big degree and our system does unleash it over time. We do it in fit and starts but this country goes forward and it will continue to go forward. The luckiest person in history on a probability basis, in my view, is the baby being born in the United States today.
查理·罗斯:比中国的机会还要大?比那些基数更低、增长空间更大的地方还要幸运?
Charlie Rose: More so than China? More so than places where the base is lower and they'll have a greater opportunity to --
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:过去三年里,什么催生了最多的亿万富翁?
Charlie Rose: What has created the most number of billionaires in the last three years?
沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道过去三年具体如何,但金融业的确催生了一大堆,而且我得说,相对于他们对社会的贡献来说,这些人的数量是严重不成比例的——
Warren Buffett: I don't know about the last three years but finance created a lot of them and I would say that relative to their contribution to society, a disproportionate number --
查理·罗斯:嗯,这个观点确实有人提。有些人认为,金融业在我们经济中的占比过大了。
Charlie Rose: Well, that's a point that's made. Some people argue that th financial sector is too large a percentage of our economy.
沃伦·巴菲特:在一个庞大的资本主义体系里,哪怕从桌子上掉下来的面包渣,都能让人富得流油——特别是当他们很擅长从别人那里把钱募集过来,还能享受税收优惠,以及一大堆其他好处的时候。我很久以前就说过,如果你想在同等智商和同等精力投入下变得最有钱,那就捏着鼻子去华尔街吧。这话有一定道理。这并不是说那帮人乐善好施或诸如此类,只是说,相对于你给牌局带来的东西,你在那里得到的回报,比在社会上绝大多数行当都要高得多。拿新闻业来说。
Warren Buffett: When you get a huge capitalistic system, just the crumbs that fall off the table can make people very rich particularly if they're very good at getting other people to hand them their money and if they get favored tax treatment and a bunch of things. I said a long time ago that if you want to get rich per point of IQ and per erg of energy, just hold your nose and go to Wall Street. There's a certain truth in that. That doesn't mean they're charitable people or anything like that, it just means the payoff there is so much greater relative to what you bring to the party than it is in most aspects of society. Take journalism.
查理·罗斯:买报纸,社区报纸?
Charlie Rose: Buy newspapers, community newspapers?
沃伦·巴菲特:是的。
Warren Buffett: Yes.
查理·罗斯:这是单纯因为你刚好有机会从那家特定的公司买入,而且买下了好几家?还是因为你信奉某种理念,或者干脆就像鲁珀特·默多克一样,这事融在你血液里了。
Charlie Rose: Is that simply because you had an opportunity to buy from that particular company, a number of them? Or you believe in something or simply just like Rupert Murdoch, it's in your blood.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这确实融在我的血液里,但我不会为此支付一个已经把这份情结折算进去的价格。
Warren Buffett: Well, it's in my blood but I won't pay a price that reflects the fact that's in my blood.
查理·罗斯:你有没有过——我是说,我觉得你可以说,比如鲁珀特,他会因为非得到某个东西不可而买下它,并为此付更高的价钱。
Charlie Rose: Have you ever paid -- I mean I believe you could argue that Rupert, for example, would buy something because he had to have it and pay more.
沃伦·巴菲特:没错。确实如此。
Warren Buffett: That's right. That's right.
查理·罗斯:他相信自己能实现某种效率提升,而且还能保住它。你做过这种事吗?有没有付过比你——
Charlie Rose: Believing that he could make some kind of efficiencies and he'd still have it. Have you ever done that? Ever paid more than you've - -
沃伦·巴菲特:不,我不会在伯克希尔·哈撒韦这样做。
Warren Buffett: No, I wouldn't do in the Berkshire Hathaway.
查理·罗斯:这是你对股东应尽的责任吗?
Charlie Rose: That's what you owe to your stockholders?
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,我说的是他们的钱。这就是为什么我们不会对报纸的社论立场指手画脚——我不会规定报纸的社论立场。我投票给了奥巴马。我们有 12 家报纸做出了 endorsement——其中 10 家支持罗姆尼,而你知道,我是首席执行官。但有两家报纸支持了我投票的奥巴马,另外 10 家支持了罗姆尼。
Warren Buffett: Yes, I mean it's their money. That's why we don't take a editorial -- I don't dictate an editorial position to the newspaper. I voted for Obama. We have 12 newspapers that endorsed -- ten of them endorsed Romney and, you know, I'm the CEO. But two papers endorsed Obama who I voted for and ten endorsed Romney.
查理·罗斯:说到奥巴马,就是总统先生,你觉得他在第二个任期会有所不同吗?
Charlie Rose: Speaking of Obama, the President, do you think he'll be different in the second term?
沃伦·巴菲特:有一点。他不会——
Warren Buffett: Somewhat. He won't --
查理·罗斯:你凭什么这么想?会怎么个不同法?
Charlie Rose: What makes you think that and how?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我觉得第二任期跟第一任期不一样。我是说第一任期——
Warren Buffett: Well, I think second terms are different than the first terms. I mean first terms --
查理·罗斯:有时候也可能布满地雷。
Charlie Rose: Sometimes they can be full of land mines, too.
沃伦·巴菲特:确实可能。但在第一任期,你和你所在的政党在某种程度上总得想着连任这件事。而第二任期无疑会让你从这种顾虑中解脱出来,接下来的问题就是你有多大本事能让国会配合你工作了。
Warren Buffett: They can be. But in the first term to some extent you and your party have to be thinking about your re-election, I mean. And a second term certainly frees up that aspect of it and then the question is how effective you can be in getting Congress to work with you.
查理·罗斯:我是说你能接触到他。他会打电话给你,然后——
Charlie Rose: I mean you have access to him. He calls you and --
沃伦·巴菲特:我从来没给他打过电话。我从来没给总统打过电话。
Warren Buffett: I've never called him. I've never called the President.
查理·罗斯:但假如他打电话来,你接了,和他通电话。你去见他,也见其他首席执行官。你觉得他对商业有没有一种新的态度,是头四年带来的?
Charlie Rose: But say he calls and you go and you talk to him on the phone. And you go meet him and other CEOs. Do you think he has a new attitude about business that's come about because of the first four years?
沃伦·巴菲特:我认为,在他的第一个任期,他觉得商界误解了他,而我认为商界也觉得他误解了——其实是他们觉得自己被误解了。我觉得他们——
Warren Buffett: I think that in the first term he felt that business misunderstood him and I think that business felt that he misunderstood -- they were misunderstood. I think they --
查理·罗斯:你觉得,他是否相信、是否明白,创造就业的地方就是企业?
Charlie Rose: Do you think he believes and understands that business is the place where jobs are created?
沃伦·巴菲特:哦,这毫无疑问。他知道自己得靠资本主义有效运转,而企业是其中的一环。我觉得,在某种程度上,当人们确实感觉被对方误解时,这种情绪会自我强化,形成一股劲儿。
Warren Buffett: Oh, there's no question about it. He knows he's dependent on capitalism working and that business is part of that. I think to some extent when people do feel misunderstood by the other party it can develop its own dynamic.
查理·罗斯:这里的情况就是这样。
Charlie Rose: That's what happened here.
沃伦·巴菲特:我觉得——但我觉得双方都应该说,算了,别计较了。一笔勾销,在人际关系中这有时是个好主意。当国家福祉面临风险时,这尤其是个好主意。所以我建议双方就此打住,也许你对我有误会,但算了,我们往前看,一起做点事。
Warren Buffett: And I think that -- but I think both sides should just say forget it, you know. Wipe the slate clean and it's sometimes a good idea in human relationships. I think it's a particularly good idea when the country's well-being is at stake. So I would recommend both sides just say maybe I was misunderstood by you but forget it. We work together going forward.
查理·罗斯:但你觉得他愿意这么做吗?
Charlie Rose: But do you think he wants to do that?
沃伦·巴菲特:我觉得他想取得极大的成功。我想他会做到的,经济形势也会帮到他。但我觉得——我的意思是,这并非——你知道,在各自极为看重的问题上,哪一方都不可能完全让步,但我认为,言辞当然应该始终保持非常克制、文明,而且你得想办法寻找彼此合作的方式。
Warren Buffett: I think he wants to succeed big time. And I think he will and I think the economy will be a help to him. But I think it's -- I mean that isn't -- you know, neither side can roll over in terms of the things they feel strongly about but I feel the rhetoric certainly should be very civil all the time and I think that you look for ways to work with each other.
查理·罗斯:假如他任命一位像杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)这样的人当财政部长——或者说就任命杰米·戴蒙——这会向全国发出一个重大信号吗?
Charlie Rose: Does this send a big signal to the country if he would appoint as Secretary of the Treasury someone like Jamie Dimon? Or Jamie Dimon?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我想这可能确实是个重大信号。
Warren Buffett: Well, I think that that might be a big signal.
查理·罗斯:任命杰米·戴蒙当财政部长?
Charlie Rose: Appointing Jamie Dimon as Secretary of the Treasury?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我觉得杰米·戴蒙实际上会——我认为他会非常出色,因为我觉得他——我觉得他——要是市场真的遇到麻烦,我认为他绝对会是你能找到的最佳人选。
Warren Buffett: Well, I think Jamie Dimon actually would be -- I think he'd be terrific because I think he -- I think he -- if we did run into problems in markets I think he would absolutely be the best person you could have.
查理·罗斯:他对市场了解得这么深——
Charlie Rose: He knows that much about markets --
沃伦·巴菲特:而且我认为,世界各国领袖也会对他有信心。
Warren Buffett: And I think world leaders would have confidence.
查理·罗斯:那你看到杰米在伦敦捅的篓子,还有(听不清)那些事,你觉得这些该归咎于什么?
Charlie Rose: So when you see a problem that Jamie's had with London and the (INAUDIBLE) all that, what do you mark that up to?
沃伦·巴菲特:如果你掌管一家 2 万亿美元的机构——就算我经营伯克希尔几十年,有些事也注定会出问题。我的意思是,不管你带一支军队、管一个教会还是治理一个政府,任何大型机构里,总会有人做出格的事,有时还能在很长时间内不被发现。当然,当你在金融机构工作时,你可以非常快地在数字后面添上很多个零。所以,你知道,这显然是控制上出现了失效,但伯克希尔也出现过控制失效。我还会犯更多错误。我希望尽量少犯,也希望尽早发现,但错误难免,大错误也难免。
Warren Buffett: If you're running a $2 trillion institution -- if I run Berkshire for decades, some things are going to wrong go wrong. I mean if you run an army, if you run a church, if you run a government, any large institution people go off the reservation sometimes and sometimes they'll get away with it for a long period. And of course, when you work in a financial institution you can add a lot of zeros very quickly. So, you know, obviously there was a failure of control but there had been failures of control at Berkshire. I am going to make more mistakes. I hope I minimize, I hope I catch them fast but there can be mistakes and there can be big mistakes.
查理·罗斯:鲍尔斯-辛普森(Bowles-Simpson)方案是否应该成为他们拿出来的菜单中的核心方案?你认不认同这是该走的方向?
Charlie Rose: Should Bowles-Simpson be the operating model from the menu that they operate on and do you believe that's the direction to go?
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我觉得这个菜单上的方案,应该能让政府收入提高到占 GDP 的 18.5%,并在根本上不设任何漏洞,体现出累进税制的理念;同时,我认为支出应该削减到占 GDP 的 21%。
Warren Buffett: Well, I think the menu should be something that raises 18.5 percent of GDP in revenues and embodies -- with no loopholes, basically, the idea of a progressive tax system and I think that expenditures should be reduced to the 21 percent of
GDP 总水平:你是想消除赤字,还是消除债务?
Gdp Level: Do you want to eliminate the deficit or the debt?
沃伦·巴菲特:它能消除——它并不能消除年度赤字。
Warren Buffett: It eliminates -- it does not eliminate the annual deficit.
查理·罗斯:对。
Charlie Rose: Right.
沃伦·巴菲特:这样能让债务占 GDP 的比例保持恒定。
Warren Buffett: It keeps the debt as a percentage of GDP constant.
查理·罗斯:而这本质上就是我们能接受的状态。
Charlie Rose: and that's what we can live with in essence.
沃伦·巴菲特:我们能接受。净债务率在 70% 多,大概是 73% 左右。我们一直以来都是这么说的,直到最近大家都兴奋起来了。二战结束后这个比率是 120%。它会保持在 70% 多,甚至可能降到 60% 多——如果我们……18.5% 和 21% 的税率不会推高债务占 GDP 的比率,很可能还会让它略微下降。
Warren Buffett: We can live with it. The net debt is in the 70s. It's around 73 percent or something like that. That's what we always talked about until everybody got excited lately. That was 120 percent coming out of World War II. And it will stay in the 70s, might even come down into the 60s if we -- the 18.5 percent and 21 percent won't increase the ratio of debt-to-GDP. And it may very well bring it down slightly.
查理·罗斯:你和沃伦·巴菲特的这段友谊对你意味着什么?
Charlie Rose: What has this meant to you this friendship with Warren Buffett?
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:哦,这真是一段无比珍贵的友谊。你能想象有机会跟沃伦·巴菲特聊几乎任何事吗?向他请教你心中盘桓过的每一篇报道的看法?这……这是无价的。从某种意义上说,着手整理这本书,看着一切重新铺展开来,加上我写的导读,见证好运如何始终眷顾这个人,也同样是无价的——就像我所说的,我们站在一旁,看着沃伦·巴菲特成为沃伦·巴菲特。我们得缘见证这一切,是件了不起的事,我乐在其中。
Carol J. Loomis: Oh well, it's been a wonderful friendship. Can you imagine the chance to Warren Buffett about almost anything? To ask his opinion about every story you've ever had on your mind? It's -- it's priceless. And it's been priceless in a way to go at this book and to see it all put down again, to add my introductions and to see how good fortune was at staying with this man as -- as I say, we were standing by while Warren Buffett was becoming Warren Buffett. and it was a remarkable thing that we were allowed to do and I loved it.
查理·罗斯:我足够聪明,知道把最后一句留给她来说。
Charlie Rose: I'm smart enough to give her the last word.
沃伦·巴菲特:你确实聪明。
Warren Buffett: You are smart.
查理·罗斯:这本书叫《跳着踢踏舞去上班:沃伦·巴菲特几乎无所不谈》,收录了 1966 年至 2012 年的内容,由卡罗尔·J·卢米斯汇编扩充而成。谢谢。
Charlie Rose: This book is called "Tap Dancing to Work: Warren Buffett on Practically Everything"; from 1966 to 2012, collected and expanded by Carol J. Loomis. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特:谢谢,查理。
Warren Buffett: Thank you, Charlie.
卡罗尔·J·卢米斯:谢谢,查理。
Carol J. Loomis: Thank you, Charlie.
查理·罗斯:感谢收看我们的节目。
Charlie Rose: Thank you for joining us.