2018 年股东会后专访

2018-05-07 · 股东大会后 · 原文约 29248 词
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贝基·奎克早上好。我现在在内布拉斯加州奥马哈,这里是伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会的举办地。接下来三个小时,我们的特邀嘉宾——如果你还没猜到的话——正是伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。非常感谢您来到这里。

BECK QUICKGood morning. I am in Omaha, Nebraska this morning that's the site of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Our special guest for the next three hours if you haven't figured it out is Berkshire Hathaway Chairman & CEO Warren Buffett. Thank you so much for being here

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢邀请。

WARREN BUFFETTThanks for having me.

贝基·奎克您刚刚结束了第 53 届股东大会。多年来我们一直来参加,但 53 年过去了,我只想问您,您觉得这个周末怎么样,对所有这一切有什么感受?这个周末有什么让您印象深刻的?

BECKY QUICKYou are coming off the 53rdannual shareholders meeting Its something that we have been coming to you for years but 53 years in I just want to ask you what you thought about this weekend and how you feel about all of it? What stood out to you through this weekend?

沃伦·巴菲特我觉得每个人都和往年一样尽兴。到场人数肯定追平了我们的纪录,我跟几千名股东碰过面,他们个个都玩得很开心,我们的董事在这儿也很快活——这就像一场狂欢节。

WARREN BUFFETTI think everybody had as much fun as ever. We had a crowd certainly equal our record I run into thousands of shareholders and they are all having a good time and our directors have a good time here so its sort of a Mardi Gras

贝基·奎克这次股东大会有什么不同的地方吗,还是说正是它的不变才让它如此特别?

BECKY QUICKIs there anything different about this meeting or is it the sameness that makes it so special?

沃伦·巴菲特基本上还是老样子。和查理·芒格一起工作,我们不会对形式做太大改动。

WARREN BUFFETTIt is the sameness pretty much working with Charlie Munger we are not going to change the format very much

贝基·奎克虽然布莱恩刚才提到,这次有很多争议性话题和引人注目的东西,因为你和查理——尤其是查理——总是想到什么就说什么,所以这次吸引了很多媒体关注。

BECKY QUICKAlthough Brian pointed out earlier, there were a lot of controversial subjects and things that caught peoples attention and picked up a lot of news this time because you and Charlie say what you think especially Charlie

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。查理想什么就说什么,而且他想的措辞还特有画面感。你注意到了吧?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Charlie says exactly what he thinks and he thinks in colorful language too. Have you noticed that?

贝基·奎克我注意到了。这几年有所变化吗,还是一直如此?

BECKY QUICKI have noticed that. Has that changed over the years or Is that more of the same?

沃伦·巴菲特这就是查理。

WARREN BUFFETTThat's Charlie

贝基·奎克那是你刚认识查理时的他吗?

BECKY QUICKThat's Charlie since you met him?

沃伦·巴菲特从 1959 年我见到他算起。

WARREN BUFFETTSince 1959 when I met him.

贝基·奎克我们来聊聊那些真正让听众产生共鸣的话题,或许就从你今年股东大会的开场说起吧。那场开场白是你跟股东们分享投资心得,沿途给出了一些建议和教训。你把那段话当成了一个教学体验用在了开场部分。

BECKY QUICKLets talk about some of the things that really resonated with people and maybe start where you began the annual meeting this year it was talking to your investors and telling them a little bit about investing some tips and lessons along the way. You kind of used it as a teaching experience at the top.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,往常我不会这么做,事实上我都不记得自己什么时候这么做过——我们一般都是直接进入问答环节。但我这次确实觉得,可能我们传递的方向有点偏,因为所有问题很自然地都会倾向于当下的时事热点。所以这次我回溯到 1942 年,我买第一只股票的时候,用它来举例说明——自 1942 年以来发生了多少事情:我们经历了 14 位总统,7 位共和党人,7 位民主党人;我们经历了世界大战、9·11 事件、古巴导弹危机,各种各样的风浪。而在 1942 年 3 月 11 日,你能做的最明智的一件事,就是买入一只指数基金,然后从此再也不看任何头条,再也不琢磨股票,就像你买下一座农场那样:只管买下来,让佃户替你耕种经营。如果你投入 1 万美元买入一只将股息进行再投资的指数基金——我当时停顿了一会儿,让在场股东猜猜这笔钱最终会变成多少——现在会变成 5100 万美元。你当时真正需要相信的事情只有一件,那就是美国会打赢那场战争,而且美国会像 1776 年以来那样不断向前发展。你需要清楚的是,只要美国往前走,美国的企业就会往前走。你根本不必操心该买哪只股票、哪一天进场或出场。你都不知道美联储会存在。美国这个国家能成事。

<<<END P 14>>>

WARREN BUFFETTYeah normally I don't do that in fact I cant remember when i did it we just go right into questions and answers. I really thought that maybe we were giving a little bit the wrong lesson because all the questions would naturally tend to be towards current events. So this time I went back to 1942 when I bought my first stock as an illustration of all the things that have happened since 1942 we have had 14 presidents, 7 Republicans. 7 Democrats. We have had world wars, 9/11, Cuban Missile Crisis we have had all kinds of things. The best single thing you could have done on march 11th, 1942 is buy an index fund and never look at a headline never think about stocks just like you would if you buy a farm. Just do it and let the tenant farmer run it for you. If you put $10,000 in an index fund that reinvested dividends and i paused for a moment to let the audience guess how much it would amount to. It would come to $51 million now. The only thing you really has to believe in then is that America would win the war and that America would progress as it has since 1776 You would have to know that if America moved forward, American business would move forward. You didnt have to worry about what stock to buy or what day to get in or out. You didn't know the Federal Reserve would exist. America works.

贝基·奎克你之所以回溯到 1942 年那天,是因为那是你买入人生第一只股票的日子——顺便提一句,你当时才 11 岁。

BECKY QUICKYou went back to the day in 1942 because it was the day you purchased your first stock which to point out you were 11 years old then

沃伦·巴菲特是的,那段时间每天的头条都糟透了。

WARREN BUFFETTYes and the headlines were terrible every day.

贝基·奎克这就是那天的那份《纽约时报》。

BECKY QUICKThis is the new york times that day

沃伦·巴菲特对。1942 年《纽约时报》卖 3 美分一份,我还拿到了前几天的头条。当时一切都很糟:菲律宾两个月内就会沦陷,欧洲形势严峻,我们的船只不断被击沉,战局一塌糊涂。我买入那天是 3 月 11 日,道琼斯指数跌破 100 点,跌了 2%,相当于今天跌 500 点。前一天晚上,3 月 10 日,我跟父亲说,我要全押进去。我有 125 美元,全部投进三股城市服务优先股。这——我到现在还是这个性格:要干就全押进去——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. 1942 new york times sold for 3 cents and I also got the headlines from some days before. Everything was going badly the Philippines were going to fall within two months, things were grim in Europe, our ships were being sunk the war was bad then and that day that I bought March 11, The Dow Jones cracked 100 on the down side, it was a 2% decline which would be 500 points today the night before on march 10th I said to my dad I want to go all in I had $125 put every bit of it in three shares of City Service Preferred. And-- which is still my personality is to get it all in and--

贝基·奎克就像我们看到的苹果一样。

BECKY QUICKAs we've seen with Apple.

沃伦·巴菲特对,有点这个意思。而且——我跟大家说过,我买那只股票的价格是 38.25 美元。它前一年从 84 美元跌下来,当年 1 月又从 55 美元跌下来。我当时想,自己确实买得很便宜。结果我买完之后,它又跌到了 27 美元。后来——那只股票——后来涨到了 200 美元。但——我在 40 美元就卖掉了。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, somewhat. And-- as I pointed out to the crowd, I bought that stock at 38 and a quarter. It was down from 84 the year before and it was down from 55 in January. I thought I'm really buying it cheap. So it went down to 27 after I bought it. And then I did-- it-- and it went up to 200 later on. But-- I sold at 40.

贝基·奎克您之所以分享这些经验教训,正是因为您告诉投资者,他们不应该试图择时操作,不应该整天盯着市场。您说应该投资,然后别去关注,把目光移开。但您自己确实会关注市场估值,如果您觉得某只股票便宜就多买,觉得贵就少买。我只是想知道,您认为当前市场处于什么位置。我们在今年 2 月底跟您聊的时候,您说您觉得当时的东西没有被高估。但您也说自己找不到任何觉得可以买入的企业。现在呢——您认为目前情况如何?

BECKY QUICKYou know, these are lessons that you point out because you tell investors that they shouldn't really be trying to market time. They shouldn't be looking at things. You should invest, stop paying attention and look away. But you are somebody who does pay attention to market valuation, buys more if you think a t-- a stock is cheap and less if you think it's expensive. And I'm just wondering where you think the markets stand right now. When we talked to you back in February, at the end of February-- you said you thought things were not overly priced. But you didn't find any businesses that you, yourself, felt like you could purchase. Where-- do you think things stand right now?

沃伦·巴菲特是的,自从我上次见你们以来,我们没有整体收购过任何企业。不过我们买了不少苹果的股票,这一点我前几天也提过。如果——让我在标普指数、十年期美国国债或是三十年期美国国债之间做选择,我根本不用一纳秒就会——选择股票。当然——这也可能是因为债券会大幅下跌——但投资者面临的选择无非就是三四种东西:股票、短期政府债券、长期债券或长期政府债券。还有——或者他们可以买——买一块农场、一小片农田——或者——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, and we haven't bought any businesses in their entirety since I saw you last. We bought a lot of Apple as we pointed out the other day. If--I had a choice between buying the S&P index or buying the ten-year U.S. Treasury or the 30 U.S. Treasury it wouldn't take me a nanosecond to--go into stocks. Now that-- it may be because bonds are going to fall a lot-- but the investor has a choice between three or four things. They've got stocks, they've got short-term governments, got long-term bonds or long-term governments. And-- or they could buy-- they could buy a farm, piece-- a small farm or--

贝基·奎克那公司债券呢——

BECKY QUICKWhat about corporate bonds--

沃伦·巴菲特——一个——

WARREN BUFFETT--a do--

贝基·奎克——也是?

BECKY QUICK--too?

沃伦·巴菲特——对,他们可以买公司债。但他们——很可能知识不够,无法评估信用。我是说,他们会被垃圾债券引诱进去,而且时机总是不对。那时候发行就会涌来,契约条款形同虚设。所以——

WARREN BUFFETT--yeah, they can buy corporate bonds. But they-- they probably don't know enough to evaluate credits. I mean, they will-- they get enticed into junk bonds with exactly the wrong time. That's when the issuances will come and the covenance will be non-existent. And so--

贝基·奎克所以你是在说那些不……

BECKY QUICKSo you're talking about average investors who don't--

沃伦·巴菲特普通投资者。

WARREN BUFFETTThe average investors.

贝基·奎克——以投资为日常工作的普通投资者。

BECKY QUICK--do this for their day job.

沃伦·巴菲特不,不是专业投资者。而是——普通投资者——但——但 99% 的人都是非专业投资者。如果为了获得体面收益他们非得那样做的话,你可以理解我大致是在赌这样能取得体面的结果。但——关键是你不必这么做。你不必非得买到完全正确的股票,也不必在完全正确的时机买入。你唯一要避免的,是在某个错误时机买入某只错误的股票。而大多数人都是在股票或市场涨上去之后才开始兴奋。我是说,他们邻居赚了一大笔钱,他们觉得自己比邻居聪明。邻居买了新车,你配偶说:“你——那个——那家伙是比你聪明还是怎么着。”这太让人恼火了。于是他们就被引诱,在错误的时机进了市场。他们需要做的只是买入美国经济的一个横截面。而且最好分时段买入。在你工作的头十年,你只管存钱并且在这段时间里持续买入——你根本不必挑什么时机。

WARREN BUFFETTNo not professional investors. But-- average investors-- but-- but 99% of people are non-professional-- investors. And-- that would-- if they had to do that to come out decently you-- can understand I'm sort of gambling on that. Or-- but the point is you don't need to do it. You-- don't have to buy exactly the right stock or b-- buy at exactly the right time. The one thing you have to avoid is buying the single wrong stock or at the single wrong time. And most people get excited about a stock or about the market after it's gone up. I mean, their neighbors made a lotta money and they know they're smarter than their neighbor. Very irritating to have a neighbor buy a new car and your spouse says, "You-- that-- that guy's smarter than you are or what." So they-- have this-- they're enticed into the market at the wrong time. And all they need to do is buy a cross section of America. And it's best to buy it over time. If the first ten years of your working life you just save and—that's for that period of time, that-- you don't have to be the right time.

贝基·奎克你——你在周末的时候更直截了当地谈到了国债——美国国债——基本上就是说——从来——就没有过买入美国国债的好时机,哪怕一直追溯到 40 年代的战争债券。

BECKY QUICKYou-- you made the point even more drastically over the weekend in terms of looking at treasuries-- U.S. Treasuries-- basically said there-- there's-- never been a good time to buy it even going all the way back to the war bonds back in the '40s.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,那个——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, that--

贝基·奎克那是——

BECKY QUICKThat was the--

沃伦·巴菲特——放到现在也是一样。你买它是出于爱国考虑。不过,当时政府给你的利率是 2.9%。你买的是美国的——你叫它战争债券,他们当时叫国防债券,后来又叫储蓄债券。但——我们那时是很乐意买战争债券的。我们付 18.75 美元,十年后拿到 25 美元。四——三变四。事实上——他们甚至把《带我去看棒球赛》那首歌改成了宣传买战争债券的歌。你知道吗?歌词大意是:“那老债券游戏里,每三块变四块。”这个——就这么一小段歌,我们在学校里还会唱。然后——政府还很高兴地告诉你,你能拿到 2.9% 的复利。但那个——当然,现在的情况是,美联储说他们想要 2% 的通胀率。他们就是说,会试图让那债券每年按美元计价贬值 2%。所以——几乎总是股票更值得买。而且,如果你年轻时就想长期存一笔钱,这一点是确定无疑的——你可以在一段相当长的时期内分批买入股票,你买不到最低点,但也不至于全买在最高点。如果你买的是一个有代表性的组合——嗯,就像我说的,把 1 万美元变成 5100 万美元,而且你根本不需要再看一眼财经版面,也不用听经纪人说什么。

WARREN BUFFETT--that is true now. You bought it for patriotic reasons. But-- the government then was offering you t-- 2.9%. You bought a U.S.-- you called it a war bond. They called them defense bonds. And then savings bonds later on. But-- we were happy to buy war bonds then. And we paid $18.75 and we got $25 in ten years. Four-- three gets you four. That was-- in fact, they had-- they took Take Me Out to the Ballgame and turned it into a song about buying war bonds. You know? And for each three you get four at the old bond game. And-- that's-- that-- there's a little song. And we'd sing it in school. And but-- and the government happily pointed out to you that you were getting 2.9% compounded for that. But that-- and of course now you have a situation the Federal Reserve says they want inflation of 2%. So they say they're going to try and devalue that bond by 2% a year in dollar terms. And-- it's almost always equities have been a better buy. And certainly if you're gonna put away money over time when you're younger-- you can buy stocks over a conservable period of time you're not gonna get the lows but you're not just gonna buy at the highs. And if you buy a cross-section-- well, like I say, you turn $10,000 into $51 million and you'd never have had to look at a financial page again or listen to a broker.

贝基·奎克不过回到您刚才的观点,您认为当前市场对普通投资者来说是个好去处。标普 500 指数是个好选择。但如果您是专业投资者,是像您这样的人,您看到这些价格时,心里会怎么想?

BECKY QUICKGoing back to this idea though that the markets, you think, are a good place for average investors right now. The S&P 500 is a good place. If you're a professional investor, if you're somebody like you, you look at prices and you think what?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我看价格,觉得很难买进东西。顺便说一句,专业投资者在几乎所有情况下都不会比普通业余投资者做得更好。但我不容易找到可买的标的。我的意思是,2009 年 3 月,道指在 660 多点或 670 多点的时候,我们就在场上。我们当时就谈过这事。我的意思是,那简直就是打折柜台。而且这种情况持续了很长时间。股票曾经非常非常便宜。但你得衡量——你得把它们跟其他选择对比。我的意思是,如果政府债券收益率涨到 1982 年那样的 15%,那跟股票的关系就跟现在完全不同了。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I look at prices and I-- find it hard to buy things. And incidentally professional investors aren't going to do better than the average-- amateur-- in almost all cases. But I-- don't find things easily. I mean, we were on and-- in March of 2009 when the Dow was in the 660s or 670s. And-- we talked about it then. I mean, there's-- this was the bargain counter. And-- it continued for a long time. Stocks have been very, very cheap. But you have to measure-- you have to measure 'em against alternatives. I mean, if—government bonds got to 15% like they were in 1982 that's a different equation against stocks than exist now.

贝基·奎克不过,过去也有过一些时期,你说过股票在你看来贵了,或者说像是处于泡沫区域。我猜这次不属于那种时候吧?

BECKY QUICKYou've had periods in the past though where you have said stocks look expensive to you or that we look like we're in bubble type territory. This is not one of those times I take it?

沃伦·巴菲特这——这次不属于那种时候。但——现在如果政府债券利率涨到 7% 或 8%,也就是说,如果你现在持有长期债券会亏得很惨——那你现在买的股票也会显得不那么有吸引力。很可能——就是没有吸引力。

WARREN BUFFETTThat-- this is not one of those times. That-- now if government bonds go to 7% or 8% which means if you own a long bond now you'd get killed-- stock you bought now will not necessarily look attractive. It-- probably won't be attractive.

贝基·奎克还有——

BECKY QUICKAnd--

沃伦·巴菲特利率就像地心引力。如果利率是 1%,并且会维持 100 年,那很显然,任何能给你带来 2% 或 3% 收益的东西都会表现好得多。但我不认为利率会 100 年都维持在 1%。

WARREN BUFFETTInterest rates are like gravity. If interest rates are 1% and they're gonna be that for 100 years obviously anything that yields you 2% or 3% is going to do way better. But I don't think they're going to be 1% for 100 years.

贝基·奎克不过我们再来深入聊聊细节。

BECKY QUICKJust to get into the nuances again though.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

贝基·奎克你——你刚才大致在说,你觉得股市对普通投资者来说是个好地方。也许不是你找到很多便宜货的地方。而当你想要整体收购一家公司时,我的意思是——这个周末我和这里的一些人聊过,他们对并购非常了解,对非上市公司也很熟悉,知道它们在不同情况下的估值,他们觉得看价格时,所有东西都显得相当贵。你说过价格比公允的基础价格高出 15% 到 20%——哈——这与你观察到的一致吗——

BECKY QUICKWhat-- you're talking broadly about issues in terms of how you see the stock market as a great place for average investors. Maybe a place where you're not finding all that many bargains. And when you look to buy a company all in, I mean-- I've spoken with some people here this weekend who know an awful lot about M&A, who know a lot about private businesses, what they're valued out at different things you'd say, that when they're looking at prices things look really rich. You're talking about prices that are 15% to 20% above what the fair price of base-- ha-- does that match up with what you see--

沃伦·巴菲特我——

WARREN BUFFETTI would--

贝基·奎克——就现在的情况?

BECKY QUICK--right now?

沃伦·巴菲特——我认同这点。这也是我们好一阵子没买下任何一家企业的原因。除了公开市场的常规因素外,现在人们收购企业时,常常——买家是借了购买价的 60% 或 70% 的钱,甚至可能更多。

WARREN BUFFETT--I would agree with that. That's why we haven't bought any businesses for quite a while. In addition to the normal factors in the public market too, when people buy businesses these days frequently-- they're being bought by people that are-- borrowing 60% or 70% of the money, maybe even more.

贝基·奎克你指的是私募股权?

BECKY QUICKYou're talking about private equity?

沃伦·巴菲特主要是私募股权,但也不仅仅是。如果有人——我们不愿意在计算回报时,把借入占购买价 70% 的资金作为基础。那或许是最好的做法。但——我们——通常都是以全股权基础来算账的。这样一来,我们就毫无竞争力了。再——加上,市场在某种程度上存在一股普遍的亢奋情绪。那些私募股权基金必须把钱投出去。而且他们的做法也挺有意思,因为他们——从机构投资者那里拿到钱,然后通常又从市场上那些同一批机构投资者手里,花更高的溢价把公司买下来,说辞是,公司私有化之后我们能经营得更好。然后他们持有一段时间,之后再把它卖回给公开市场,卖给那些机构投资者——在此期间,那些投资者已经支付了巨额的费用,他们这会儿的说辞又变成了,公司还是上市更好。我的意思是,这——是一场很有意思的运作。

WARREN BUFFETTMostly private equity but not exclusively private equity. And if some-- we're not willing to calculate our returns based on borrowing money at 70%-- of the purchase price. That may be the best thing to do. But-- we--calculate things generally on an all-equity basis. And we are not competitive. And-- then you've got a general euphoria that-- to some degree. The private equity funds have to put the money out. And it's kind of interesting what they do because-- they take the money which they get usually from institutional investors and then they buy a company in the market from some of those same institutional investors except pay a premium and they say we can run it better if it's private. Then they hold it for a while. And then they sell it back to the market in these private institutional investors having-- with them having paid substantial fees in the meantime and say it's better to be public. I mean, it's-- an interesting exercise.

贝基·奎克我们来谈谈这个周末引起很多人关注的一些事,以及一些更有争议的言论。这个周末有一次,你说比特币,这是基于——有人问你——查理说,“比特币就像老鼠药。”别人问你对这个评论的看法。你说,“嗯,可能更像是——老鼠药的平方。”查理后来在会上基本把比特币叫作粪球。

BECKY QUICKLet's talk about some of the things that came up this weekend that really caught people's attention and some of the more controversial statements that came out. At one point this weekend you said that Bitcoin and this is was based-- you were asked-- Charlie said, "Bitcoin's like rat poison." You were asked about that comment. And you said, "Well, it's probably more like-- rat poison squared." Charlie went on in the meeting to then basically call Bitcoin turds.

沃伦·巴菲特他——是个爱表达的人,不是吗?也许他再老几岁就会成熟了。

WARREN BUFFETTHe--is an expressive sort, isn't he? Maybe when he gets a little older he'll mature.

贝基·奎克我想问你这个问题,因为它引发了这么多争议。尤其是在推特和一些你可能预料到加密货币交易者会大声嚷嚷的地方——他们听到这些话后很激动。为什么是比特币让你们这么上火?

BECKY QUICKI just wanna ask you about that because it sparked so much controversy. And it's-- particularly on Twitter and some of the places where you might expect people who are trading in-- in cryptocurrency-- to be pretty-- loud about what they heard. What-- is it about Bitcoin that gets you guys so fired up?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,当你买一个农场——你每年看收成和价格,决定这是不是让人满意的投资,我的意思是,你看的是资产本身以及它为你产出的东西。当我们买一家企业时,我们看企业赚多少钱,然后根据我们付的价格判断感觉如何。但我们买的东西,在期末不仅保留了当初买的东西,还有资产产出的东西。而当你买非生产性资产——你指望的只是下一个人会不会付更多钱,因为他更兴奋地期待再下一个人出现。但资产本身什么都不创造。举个例子——比如黄金。如果你回溯到基督时代,看买一盎司黄金要付出多少小时的劳动,然后一直算到现在,你会发现年化复合增长率大概只有千分之一或千分之二。而且这段时期你还得为它买保险,确保没人偷走它,但它什么都不生产。而——生产性资产——你甚至可能为生产性资产付了过高的价格。但我在 1980 年代买过一个农场。每年看它生产大豆和玉米的产量。到期末我仍然拥有那个农场,还从它那里获得了一笔可观的收入。公寓楼、经营企业也是一样。但——如果你和我买了各种加密货币,它们不会增值——它们不会像一群兔子那样坐在我们面前。它们——它们就只是待在那里。而且我有一整套——下次你从我这里买走它之后变得更兴奋,然后也许我变得更兴奋,再从你那里买回来。实际上我们可以——我们俩自己待在屋里,不停地互相抬高价格。但到最后,那里只有一个比特币。现在我们必须再找一个人。它们——终归会结束。我的意思是,那些——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, when you buy a farm-- you look at the crop every year and what prices are and you decide whether it was satisfactory investment, I mean, you look to the asset itself and what it produces for you. When we buy a business we look at what the business earns and decide how we feel about it in terms of what we paid. But we are buying something that at the end of the period we not only have what we bought in the first place but we have something that the asset produced. And when you buy non-productive assets-- all you're counting on is whether the next person is going to pay you more because they're even more excited about another next person coming along. But the asset itself is creating nothing. One of the interesting things—for example is gold. If you go back to the time of Christ and you look at how many hours of labor you had to give up in order to buy an ounce of gold and you take it forward to now you'll find a compound right, maybe 1/10 or 2/10 of 1%. You know, and then you have to insure it during that time and make sure, you know, somebody doesn't steal it from you and every-- but it doesn't produce anything. And-- productive assets-- you may have even paid too much for a productive asset. But I bought a farm in the 1980s. And--every year look at how much it produced in the way of soybeans and corn. And at the end of that period I've still got the farm and I've got some significant income off of it. Apartment house, operating business. But-- if you and I buy various cryptocurrency they're not gonna multiply-- they're not gonna be a bunch of rabbits sitting there in front of us. They-- they're just gonna sit there. And I got a whole-- next time you get more excited after I bought it from you and then maybe I'll get more excited it and buy it from you. And actually we could-- we could sit in the house by ourselves and we could keep running up the price between the two of us. But at the end of the time there's one Bitcoin sitting there. And now we gotta find somebody else. And-- they come to an end. I mean, those--

贝基·奎克那——我的意思是,那是个博傻理论。你是这个意思吧?

BECKY QUICKThat-- that, I mean, that's a greater fool theory. That's what you're saying?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯——对。是——因为期望想买它的人——他们想卖给其他人——这个人群会扩大而买入。而且——你知道,这很妙,因为它确实会推高价格。确实会创造更多买家,人们会想,“我得参与进来。”而且——如果他们不懂更好。这是非生产性资产的另一件事——如果你不懂,你会比懂的时候兴奋得多。我的意思是,如果你买一张债券,说好每年付你 4%,不会有任何惊喜。它只会每年付你 4%。但如果你——看着什么东西说,“这有魔力”,你可以想象任何你想要的东西。你对鲨鱼牙齿、贝壳,什么都行。而且——你知道,17 世纪在阿姆斯特丹他们用郁金香干过。他们还会再干。我的意思是,人们——喜欢投机。喜欢赌博。如果你能得到某种东西——特别是半真半假的东西。如果你在 1942 年买了黄金,你说,“我们可能打输这场战争。我们可能得逃去别的国家,所以把资产放在黄金里,”那你从拥有股票得到的每一美元里,连一美分都不到。不到一美分。现在有人管这叫价值储存。我的意思是,我觉得他们是妄想。

WARREN BUFFETTIt-- well, yeah. It's-- buying something because you expect the pool of people who wanna buy it because they wanna sell it to somebody else will grow. And-- you know, it's-- wonderful because it does create a rising price. Does create more buyers and people think, "I've gotta get in on this." And--it's better if they don't understand it. That's the other thing about non-product-- if you don't understand it you get much more excited than if you understand it. I mean, if you buy a bond that says it's gonna pay you 4% a year you're not gonna get any pleasant surprises. It only pay you 4% a year. But if-- you can have anything you wanna imagine if you just look at something and say, "That's magic." You can do it with sharks teeth or seashells or anything. And-- you know, they did it with tulips in the 17th century in-- Amsterdam. And-- they'll do it again. I mean, people-- they like to speculate. They like to gamble. And-- if you can get something-- particularly if you have something half plausible going on. If you had bought gold in 1942 and you said, "We might lose the war. We might have to run off to some other country and, you know, so let's put our assets in gold," you would have less than a penny for every dollar you got from owning stocks. Less than a penny. Now somebody calls that a stored value. I mean, I think they're delusionary.

贝基·奎克安德鲁也有个问题。安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew has a question too. Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金嘿,沃伦,跟比特币这个问题有关——你看到了,高盛上周刚宣布他们要——创建一个——实际上是一个围绕加密货币、特别是比特币的交易业务。你一直是高盛的投资者。你怎么看他们这个决定?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINHey, Warren, related to this-- issue of Bitcoin, you saw that Goldman Sachs just last week announced that they were gonna-- create a-- effectively a trading operation around cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular. You've been an investor-- in Goldman. What do you think of their decision to do that?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,他们可能觉得很多人会非常兴奋,嗯,而且——也许已经兴奋了。但他们觉得交易它们能赚钱。我不认为他们是在表达对最终价值的看法。如果高盛的高级合伙人卖掉高盛股票去买比特币,我会非常惊讶。但我想现在把这个话题说完,因为我的朋友查理 8 点要来。没人能猜到他到时候会说什么。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, they probably think that lots of people are gonna get very excited about, well, and-- maybe already are. But they think there's money to be made trading them. I don't think they're expressing an opinion on the ultimate value. I would be very surprised if the top partners of Goldman are selling their Goldman stock and putting it into Bitcoin. But I wanna cover the subject now because my friend, Charlie, will come on at 8:00. There's no telling what he will say.

贝基·奎克嗯——这正是我的意思。我确实想问查理这个问题,因为我觉得他谈到粪球时指的是这个,他说,“如果你在交易这个,就像看别人交易粪球,然后决定你也想分一杯羹。”

BECKY QUICKWell, that-- that's my whole entire point. I do wanna ask Charlie about it because I think when he talked about the turds he was referring to this he said, "If you're trading this it's like watching other people trading turds and deciding you wanna get a piece of that."

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,你别想让我评论那个。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, you're not gonna get me to comment on that.

贝基·奎克希望查理没醒,不在——

BECKY QUICKHopefully Charlie's not awake and is not--

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,事实是——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, the truth is--

贝基·奎克——现在正在看这个。

BECKY QUICK--watching right now.

沃伦·巴菲特——就是总会有人去交易那些荒唐至极的东西。你想啊,在阿姆斯特丹,人们甚至卖了自己的房子,就为了去买一朵郁金香。要是人们觉得明天就能赚到钱,更糟糕的是,要是他们看到自己认识的人赚到了钱,而自己没赚到——这就会把人卷进去。知道吗,我都可以在这个节目上悄悄说点什么,内容越离谱,大家的反应反而越热烈,因为根本没有量化标准来约束。你买股票的时候会说,“嗯,15 倍市盈率我买,但 20 倍我就不买了。”可一旦你碰上一个本身什么也不产出的东西,你就没有任何衡量标准了。根本没有东西可以用来参照。它只是——它一直在涨,所以就会让人觉得它会继续涨下去。

<<<END P 15>>>

WARREN BUFFETT--there's people who do trade on very crazy things over time. You know, imagine people selling their homes to buy a tulip in Amsterdam. If people think they're going to make money the next day and, worse yet, if they think somebody else that they know is going to make money and they aren't going to make money they-- it just draws people in. You know, I can whisper something on this program and kind of the more sillier it was the more it right react because there's no quantitative limits. If you buy a stock and you say, "Well, I'll buy it at 15 times earnings but I won't buy it at 20 times earnings." But when you get into something that doesn't produce anything, you know, there's no checkpoints there. There's nothing to reference it to. It's just-- it's gone up and it will keep going up

贝基·奎克那我得说,我在推特上转发你和查理这个周末说的那些话时,我只是重复你们说的话。有些人回过来,评论相当愤怒——包括像“我买了房子——买加密货币。你对这个过时了。”他们说了更难听的话——“你不懂这个,所以你应该闭嘴。”你——其实不是这样的。

BECKY QUICKNow I will say when I was tweeting the things that you and Charlie were saying about this weekend all I was doing was repeating what you were saying. And people were coming back with some pretty angry comments-- --including things like, "I bought a house-- buying cryptocurrency. You're outdated on this." They said a lot meaner things that-- "You don't understand it so you should shut up about it." What-- you're not.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,有意思的是,如果你在投资——你自己或别人。你——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, the interesting thing is if you're investing you or other people. You--

贝基·奎克什么——

BECKY QUICKWhat--

沃伦·巴菲特——如果我在投资苹果——我很喜欢人们说苹果很糟糕,因为我想让股价下跌,这样回购股票时我的权益会涨得更快。你——如果你买的是能产生利润的东西,你不会觉得需要防御。你买一个农场,不会有人过来说“你不该买农场”你就真着急。如果有人说:“我看着庄稼长,我能看到最后卖什么价。我的投资回报有 4% 或 8%。”可当你看着这个东西什么都不产生时,你就会变得防御。你只是希望明天、后天有人出更高价买。你依赖更多人——人群不断扩大,基本上就是。所以——那些人会生气。但——那个用加密货币买了房子的人,我会说他做得很对。他卖了。

WARREN BUFFETT--if I'm investing in Apple-- I love the idea of people saying Apple is terrible 'cause I want the stock to go down because the repurchasing shares and my interest will go up faster. You-- don't get defensive if you're buying something that produces. You don't buy a farm and get real defensive if somebody comes and says, "You shouldn't buy a farm." If somebody says, "I watch the crops go and I can see what I sell-- I'm selling my crop for at the end. And I'm making s-- 4% or 8% on my investment." You're getting defensive when you look at this thing and it doesn't do anything. You're just hoping somebody comes along to pay you more tomorrow and the next day. And you're dependent on more people-- the mob growing, you know, basically. So-- those people do get angry. But-- the person that bought a house with it, I would say they did the very right thing. They sold it.

贝基·奎克他卖了。他卖了,然后用它买了别的东西。嘿,乔——你有话要说吗?

BECKY QUICKThey sold it. They sold it and bought something else with it. Hey, Joe-- you have a comment to?

乔·科南我只是——我刚才在说——但看看你买苹果花了多久,沃伦。我是说,你最后确实买了。但——你需要,你知道,它需要——就是花了很长时间。我不知道比特币会怎样。但你看这些——我也不懂。但——它在那些人中间很有追随者,你知道,他们觉得会涨到 25000 或 100000。我是说,你确实——你从来没有像拥抱很多其他你更懂的东西那样拥抱科技。你最后终于进了苹果。但你是什么时候买的苹果?你买的时候它可能已经是 7000 亿美元的公司了。本来——你知道,要是能在 1000 亿或 500 亿时买就好了。

JOE KERNENJust-- I was saying in it-- but look how long it took you to buy Apple though, Warren. I mean, you finally did buy it. But-- you needed to be, you know, it needed-- it just took a long time. I don't know what happens with Bitcoin. But you see these-- I don't understand it either. But-- it's got quite a following amongall these people that, you know, think it's going to 25,000 or 100,000. I mean, it did take you-- you've never embraced-- technology as much as a lot of other things that you understood a lot better. And you're finally in Apple. But what did you finally buy Apple? It's was already probably a $700 billion company when you finally bought it. Coulda-- you know, woulda been nice to buy it a $100 billion or $50 billion.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。关于买苹果,我的态度是,我根本不在乎以后还有没有人再提起苹果。我是说——你知道,比特币就不一样了——买比特币的人需要去吹捧它,因为他们希望更多人加入这个群体。所以他们想站出来说:“买比特币吧,”因为只有这样——如果人群不聚集起来,他们就会亏钱。如果人群开始散掉——所以他们有一万个理由去吹捧它。而我买苹果的时候,我知道苹果会回购大量股份。所以现在,苹果在这个季度末,不管它当时是 49.27 亿股还是 9.23 亿股,管它具体是多少。我们持有大约 5%。但我知道我什么事都不用做。很可能过几年,我们不用再多花一分钱,持股比例就会变成 6%。嗯,我相当喜欢这种持股从 5% 自然变成 6% 的情况。而且股价越便宜,他们用同样的钱回购的股份就越多。所以——我完全没有任何理由去鼓励别人——

<<<END P 6>>>

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I say about buying Apple is I don't care whether anybody ever mentions Apple again. I mean-- you know, whereas with Bitcoin you do-- people that buy it wanna taut it because they want more people joining the crowd. So they wanna come on and say, "You buy Bitcoin," because the only-- they're gonna lose money unless the crowd gathers. If the crowd starts to dispersing-- so they've got every reason in the world to taut it. When I buy Apple I know that Apple is going to repurchase a lot of shares. So right now Apple had whatever it did at the quarter 4,927,000,000 shares or 923 million, whatever it was. And we own about 5%. But I know I don't have to do a thing. And probably in a couple years we'll own 6% without laying out another dollar. Well, I love the idea of having 5% go to 6%. And the cheaper the stock is, the more they will get for their money when they're buying it in. So there's-- no reason at all for me to encourage other people--

乔·科南嘿——沃伦——

JOE KERNENHey-- Warren--

沃伦·巴菲特——去买苹果。我——

WARREN BUFFETT--to buy Apple. I'm--

乔·科南——我好长时间没听人提起城市服务了。那是——那是优先股吗?我——我不——肯定是可转换的。不是吗?不然怎么会有那么大的价格波动。

JOE KERNEN-- I hadn't heard anyone say City Service in a long time. Was that-- it was-- it was a preferred stock? I-- I don't-- it must've been convertible. Wasn't it or something to have huge price—swings like that

沃伦·巴菲特事情是这样的,乔,城市服务一开始是一家公用事业公司,听起来就是那样。很早——大约 1910 年,差不多那时候。

WARREN BUFFETTNow what---- happened, Joe, was that City Service started out as a utility company like it sounds. Way-- back around 1910, sometime around then.

乔·科南对。

JOE KERNENRight.

沃伦·巴菲特但后来他们收购了——他们开始开发天然气,然后连带发现了石油。所以过了一段时间它仍然是——一家大型公用事业公司。它——演变成了一家基础能源公司——有生产力的公司。但他们当初在公用事业为主时发行了——发行了一种 6 美元的优先股——累积优先股。它在 1932 年停止支付股息——很多人那时候都没钱了。所以——从 1932 年起,这种面值 100 美元、每年累积 6 美元的优先股就存在了。有一种罕见的——就在我买的头一年,他们实际上付了 3 美元,算是一种罕见情况。但那仍然低于 6 美元的年息。然后他们最终以 200 多美元赎回,那是——面值 100 美元,可能加上赎回溢价和所有累积的欠息。它不是可转换的。

WARREN BUFFETTBut then they bought it-- they started developing natural gas and then they found oil in connection with it. So over a period of time it still = it was a big utility company. It-- morphed into a basic energy company-- productive company. But they issued when they were a utility primarily-- they issued a $6 preferred that-- cumulative preferred. And it quit paying dividends in 1932-- a lotta people, they ran outta money then. So-- from 1932 forward you had this preferred which, $100 par, which was accumulating at $6. A rarity just-- the year before I bought it they actually made a $3 payment on a rarity. But that still was less than $6 coupon. And then they eventually called it at 200 and something which was-- $100 par, probably a call premium plus all the rariges. It was not convertible.

乔·科南我明白了。你 11 岁时就买了,真是惊人——而且城市服务的历史那么丰富。我是说,有繁荣周期,有吃豆人防御,被西方石油收购。然后他们部分加油站被委内瑞拉买了,记得吗?他们因此得到免费汽油。还有红袜队,那个大——

JOE KERNENI see. That's pretty amazing that you were 11 years old when you-- and what a history City Service had. I mean, there's a boom ticking and a Pacman defense, it was bought by Oxy. And then part of their gas stations were bought by Venezuela, remember? And they were given free gas around it. And-- the Red Sox, the big--

沃伦·巴菲特当然。

WARREN BUFFETTSure.

乔·科南——CITGO 标志在——棒球场附近。真是惊人——

JOE KERNEN--CITGO sign up at-- near the-- baseball stadium. It's amazing--

沃伦·巴菲特对,对。它变成了一家——主要的石油公司。

WARREN BUFFETTRight, right. It became-- a major oil company.

乔·科南是啊。

JOE KERNENYeah.

沃伦·巴菲特其实我想他们当初是挨家挨户卖这种优先股的——很久以前——在 20 年代,大概也是那时候。但——

WARREN BUFFETTThey actually I think sold the preferred door to door-- way back in the-- in the '20s, sometime like that too. But--

乔·科南别再说什么买——

JOE KERNENQuit talking about buying--

沃伦·巴菲特——它很便宜。你知道。

WARREN BUFFETT--it was cheap. You know.

乔·科南——每次你说“买了个农场”,我就想,“什么——”,我就会走神一秒钟,然后你接着说,“我在买农场——买——”,别再说这个了。我查了一下——那是个奇怪的——说法,来源于——其实挺不吉利的——它真正的来源。但——我都不打算细说了。不过——它——有一个——衍生来历,我猜是那些士兵——他们想打完仗回来,回来就买个农场。可不幸的是,最后是他们的家人用保险理赔金之类买下的。太可怕了。但——反正——是啊,我们接着聊——比特币和——

JOE KERNEN-- every time you say bought the farm I'm like, "What--" I'm, like, not listening for a second and then you go, "I'm buying a farm-- buying--" like, stop talking about that. I looked up what-- that's a weird-- expression that came from-- it's very morbid-- what it actually came from. But-- I'm not even gonna go into it. But it-- there's-- a-- derivation for what it came from when I guess the guys-- they wanna come back from a war and they're gonna buy a farm when they do. And unfortunately it's their family that ends up buying it from insurance proceeds or something. It's horrible. But-- anyway-- yeah, let's move onto-- Bitcoin and--

贝基·奎克转入不同资产——

BECKY QUICKTo different assets--

乔·科南——苹果。

JOE KERNEN--Apple.

贝基·奎克——这个话题上的不同资产。

BECKY QUICK--different assets on this.

沃伦·巴菲特二——二战就没有——哦你先说。

WARREN BUFFETTThe War-- World War II there wasn'tgo ahead actually.

贝基·奎克你——继续,你说。

BECKY QUICKGo-- ahead, go.

沃伦·巴菲特从某种意义上说这很有意思,因为约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在 1935 年或 1936 年写了《通论》。而——凯恩斯的经济学——在我——我家周围,人人都觉得那完全是骗人的,差不多就是这种看法。二战迫使国家搞起了那种大规模的凯恩斯式财政。我是说,我们当时的赤字融资规模大得令人难以置信。债务一度上升到 GDP 的 120%,比现在高得多,而在此之前这个数字还远低于现在。我们送走了数百万最有生产力的人——我们把很大一部分经济腾挪出来。我们开始建造东西,然后扔进海里。我们是借钱干的这些事。而这铺就了一条跑道,你知道,造就了世界有史以来最伟大的经济进步。

WARREN BUFFETTIt was very interesting in one sense because John Maynard Keynes had written in 1935 or 1936 The General Theory. And-- Keynes in economics of-- around my household everybody thought it was a total fraud and all of that. World War II forced the country into this huge Keynesian type financing. I mean, we had the deficit financed in a way that was incredible. And-the debt went up to 120% of GDP which is considerably higher than it is now from a figure far lower than that. And we sent millions of the most productive people-- we took a lot of the economy. We started building things that we dumped into the sea. We did it on borrowed money. And it created the runway for, you know, the greatest economic progress the world's ever seen.

乔·科南那——

JOE KERNENThat

贝基·奎克沃伦,让我再问一个问题——哦你先说。

BECKY QUICKWarren, let me ask you one more question on-- oh go ahead.

乔·科南不,我——所以那几乎——那算是,某种对凯恩斯经济学的认可吗,沃伦?

JOE KERNENNo I-- so that almost-- so is that, like, an endorsement of Keynesian economics, Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特它在二战中当然是管用的。我是说,我们——我不——我认为,如果没有那种巨额的赤字支出,40 年代、50 年代和 60 年代的发展绝不会是后来那个样子。当时——所有这些事件,你知道,我们正在——我们费尽力气想要走出 30 年代的泥潭。然后——他们拧开水龙头,这由不得他们不做,造了一大堆东西,再扔进海里。你知道,他们——不是在造冰箱、汽车或任何这类东西。他们——而且——有很多人预测——有一件事我记得特别清楚,很多极有声望的人物都预测,我们在二战后会陷入一场大萧条,就像一战后那样。所以——那在当时是一种主流——

WARREN BUFFETTIt certainly worked in World War II. I mean, we would-- we-- I don't-- I do not think the '40s and '50s and '60s would have developed remotely like they did without the huge deficit spending. And-- all these events that, you know, we were trying-- we were struggling to get out of the '30s. And-- then they just turned a spigot loose which they had to do and build a whole bunch of things they dumped in the sea. You know, they-- weren't building refrigerators or cars or anything like that. They-- and-- there were a lotta people that predicted a-- one of the things that I do remember very well was that a lot of very respected figures that we would come out and have a Depression post-World War-- II just like we had post-World War I. So-- that was a prevailing sort of--

贝基·奎克但有没有该搞凯恩斯主义的时候,也有该往回缩、重新收紧的时候?

BECKY QUICKBut are there times to be Keynesian and then times to pull it back in and rein it back in?

沃伦·巴菲特对,嗯,那是——不过凯恩斯也会这么说。没错。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, that's-- but Keynes would say that too. Yeah.

乔·科南嗯,我们需要一个有点——

JOE KERNENWell, we need a guy with a little--

贝基·奎克让我——我问你——

BECKY QUICKLet-- me ask you--

乔·科南——有点经验的人——来谈这些。不是你这个年纪的,你懂吧。我们需要——查理,他估计真能——

JOE KERNEN--experience-- to talk about all this. Not someone-- you're age, you know. We need-- Charlie on who can probably really--

贝基·奎克查理。

BECKY QUICKCharlie.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金——有点经验在身上的。

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN--with a little experience under his belt.

沃伦·巴菲特给他一——对,准——准备好随时给他消音啊。

WARREN BUFFETTGive him a s-- yeah, g-- be prepared to bleep him out though.

贝基·奎克查理那边得设三秒延迟。嘿,沃伦,我问你,就说公共服务公司吧,这事你聊过。我知道那是你买的第一只股票。我知道你当时 11 岁。但对在家看电视的人来说,听说一个 11 岁的孩子自己挑股票,让他爸去买,尤其父亲还是股票经纪人,大家肯定会觉得是他父亲引导他得出那个结论的。我猜完全是你自己琢磨出来的。你是怎么想到的?

BECKY QUICKWe need a three-second delay with Charlie. Hey, Warren, let me ask you, just City Services, you've talked about this. I knew that was your first purchase. I knew you were 11. But for people watching at home, you hear an 11 year old picks out a stock and asks their dad to buy it, particularly when their father is a stock broker, you assume their father is the one that led them to that conclusion. My guess is you did that all by yourself. How-- did you come up with it?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我肯定听谁聊起过它。而且——你如果当时去看公共服务公司,这家公司在大萧条时期没钱付股息。这会儿突然开始偿还债务了,而且要大赚一笔了。再说它们有不少,你知道,有不少——资产正在变得更值钱。而且二战之后我们会有通胀,所以资产大概会变得更值钱,而它们的债务却在下降。优先股的收益也相当可观,只是它们没把这些收益派发出来。所以——我早晚能拿到 200 美元。但问题是——我是 38.25 美元买的,结果它跌到了 27 美元——我跟我姐姐一起走路上学,她也想买三股,因为我买了——她可不想看我发财她自己却没发财——她天天指着它跟我说这玩意儿又跌了,等它涨回 40 美元,我们——每人都有机会赚 5 美元,我想,这下好了,我姐姐又该觉得我是天才了,而且我还多了 5 美元。人生还能更美吗?结果我 40 美元卖了,眼睁睁看着它涨到 200 美元。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I must've heard somebody talk about it. But-- and if you looked at City Service at that point, here was this company in the Depression, didn't have the money to pay it. Now all of a sudden was paying down its debts and it was going to earn a lotta money. And they had a lot of, you know, they had- -- assets that were becoming worth more. And we were going to have inflation after World War II so that assets probably were going to be worth more while their debt was coming down. And the earnings on the preferred were terrific. They just weren't paying 'em out. So-- I was gonna get $200 at some time. But the problem was that I-- buying it at 38 and a quarter, as a matter of fact, and having it go down to 27-- and walking to school with my sister who also wanted to buy three shares 'cause I was buying it-- she hated to see me get rich, while she wasn't getting rich- and having her point out that this thing was going down every day,when it got back up to 40 and we had-- each had a chance to make a $5 profit I thought, you know, now my sister will again consider me a genius and I will have $5 more. How could life be any better? So then I watched it go to 200 after selling it at 40.

贝基·奎克嗯,人生早年的教训。想必非常深刻。沃伦·巴菲特会陪我们到早上 9 点。我们还有很多要聊的。不过,各位,我先切回演播室交给你们。

BECKY QUICKWell, lessons learned early in life. Probably very powerful ones. Warren Buffett's gonna be with us until 9:00 a.m. We have a lot to talk about still. But, guys, I'll send it back to you in the studio right now.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金好的,谢谢你,贝基。接下来,我们回来之后,会有两位特别嘉宾加入贝基和沃伦·巴菲特。将会在 8 点时段发生,伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格。我们正在给他准备三秒延迟。然后是伯克希尔董事会成员比尔·盖茨。别走开,我们马上从奥马哈带回更多内容,就在 Squawk 节目上。早上好。欢迎回到 CNBC 的“Squawk Box”节目。现在看看美国股指期货情况。告诉大家现在怎么样了。道指看来可能高开,大约 60 点,现在差不多 70 点。纳斯达克看来高开约 38 点,标普 500 看来高开约 9 点。快速看下原油现在的情况。一桶 WTI 原油,70.42 美元。这是自 2014 年 11 月以来的最高水平。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOkay, thank you, Becky. Coming up, when we return, we have two special guests joining Becky and Warren Buffett. That's gonna happen in the 8:00 hour, Berkshire vice chair Charlie Munger. We are getting the three-second delay ready for him. And then Berkshire board member Bill Gates. Stick around, we've got a lot more coming back from Omaha in just a moment right here on Squawk. Good morning. Welcome back to "Squawk Box" right here on CNBC. Let's show U.S. equity futures at this hour. Let's let you know what's going on right now. Dow looks like it could open up higher, about 60, almost 70 points higher now. NASDAQ looking to open about 38 points higher and the S&P 500 looking to open up about nine points higher. A quick look at crude right now. Barrel costs a WTI, $70.42. That's the highest level since November of 2014.

乔·科南这让人不禁想问——如果伊朗协议真被否定,这因素是已经反映在股价里了,还是已经计入价格了?因为如果总统决定退出那项协议,这价格可不会跌。我们连回奥马哈的贝基那边,她和我们的特别嘉宾巴菲特先生在一起。贝基?

JOE KERNENAnd it makes you wonder when – if the Iran deal is decertified, is it in the stock or is it in the price already? Because that's not going down if the president decides to exit that deal. Let's get back to Becky out in Omaha with our special guest, Mr. Buffett. Beck?

贝基·奎克乔,谢谢。再次说明,我们在奥马哈,和伯克希尔的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在一起。他将陪我们度过整个上午。稍后节目里,查理·芒格和比尔·盖茨也会加入。但现在,沃伦,我们来聊聊你这周末谈到的一些个股。可能最有争议的是富国银行。在股东大会上,你被股东直接问到了这个问题。有些股东说,“好,”我后来也确实听到其他股东说——

BECKY QUICKJoe, thank you. Once again, we are in Omaha with Berkshire's chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett. He's going to be with us through the entire morning. We'll be joined also by Charlie Munger and Bill Gates a little later in the program. But right now, Warren, let's talk through some of the individual stocks that you've spoken about this weekend. Maybe the most controversial one was Wells Fargo. You were questioned directly on that at the shareholders' meeting with questions from shareholders. And who have said, "Okay," and I did hear this from other shareholders later on –

沃伦·巴菲特当然。

WARREN BUFFETTSure.

贝基·奎克富国银行一次又一次地碰上麻烦。罚款不断。我们查出的那些事,尤其是一些“蟑螂”——你知道,你可能这么形容——还在不断往外爬。但你还一直拿着这只股票,说你不卖,并且你信任现任首席执行官蒂姆·斯隆。有人反驳说,“你看,这家公司麻烦不断,这跟你跟我们讲过的所罗门那件事对不上号。”你怎么说,这件事确实符合我们的投资理念?

BECKY QUICKWells Fargo has run into trouble time and time again. The fines have continued. The developments and things that we've found out about some of the cockroaches particularly – you know, as you might phrase – continue to come out. But you've stuck with this stock and said that you're not selling and that you have faith in Tim Sloan who's the existing CEO. People have pushed back and said, "Look, this is a company that's run into trouble and it doesn't jive with what we've heard you say about Salomon." How do you say yes this does fit with our investing philosophy?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,在富国银行,他们犯了一个错,我自己有时也犯过,那就是激励机制有效,他们制定了不当的激励机制,结果也确实有效。所以他们激励了坏行为,而不是好行为。这种事时不时会发生。你可能会在类似的东西上放太多佣金。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, at Wells Fargo they made one mistake that maybe I've made from time to time, which is incentives work, and they came up with improper incentives and they work. And so they incented bad behavior instead of incenting good behavior. And that happens from time to time. You could put too big a commission in something of the sort.

贝基·奎克但我们具体说说创造了什么激励机制。那些奖励人们开立新账户数量的机制。

BECKY QUICKBut let's talk very specifically about what incentives were created. They were incentives that rewarded people for the number of new accounts that were opened.

沃伦·巴菲特新账户数量。他们在投资者演示中经常说,“我们有这么多。八个会很棒。6.2 个产品比 6.1 个好。”所以对外界和员工都极其强调这一点。但对外界强调的是每个客户的服务更多。

WARREN BUFFETTNumber of new accounts. And they got in – they regularly on their investor presentations would say, "We've got so many. And eight would be great. And 6.2 was better than 6.1 products." So it put this huge emphasis to the public out there as well as to their employees. But to the public that they had more services per customer.

贝基·奎克对他们的股东。

BECKY QUICKTo their shareholders.

沃伦·巴菲特还有股东。每个人都会听。然后,意想不到的是,人们开始创建假账户。一旦有人做了坏事,其他人就会有样学样——我的意思是,如果你奖励坏行为,就会催生大量坏行为。这是个问题。我确定我们在伯克希尔和其他地方时不时也会碰到这类问题。但关键问题在于,当你发现时,必须立即制止。我不知道为什么当时没有制止,不清楚具体原因,但我以前见过这种情况。然后局势就会彻底失控。如果你不立即制止,拖到四个月后再动手,所有人都会跑来问你:“那你为什么四个月前不做点什么?”

WARREN BUFFETTAnd shareholders. And everybody would listen. And surprise, surprise, people started creating fake accounts. And when bad behavior gets in there, other people figure it out – I mean if you get rewarded for bad behavior, you're going to have a lot of bad behavior. That's a problem. I'm sure it's a problem we've had from time to time in Berkshire and other places. But the real problem was when you find out about it, you've got to stop it immediately. And I don't know the details about why it wasn't stopped, but I've seen that before. And then it just gets out of hand. And if you don't stop it immediately, then if you do it four months later everybody will come and say, "Well, why didn't you do something four months earlier?"

贝基·奎克但我们更尖锐一点地说。这不只是富国银行没有立即制止不当激励的问题。他们还在打压行为正当的举报人,并解雇他们。

BECKY QUICKBut let's be a little more pointed with this. This was not just a case where Wells Fargo was not stopping bad incentives immediately. It was quashing whistle-blowers who were behaving properly and firing them.

沃伦·巴菲特我不太了解细节。

WARREN BUFFETTI don't know the details too much on that.

贝基·奎克根据报道。我不是亲身经历。

BECKY QUICKFrom what's been reported. I don't know this first-hand.

沃伦·巴菲特我不跟你争。

WARREN BUFFETTI won't argue with you.

贝基·奎克我不是亲身经历,但根据报道,有很多举报人说他们试图做正确的事。他们试图举报。结果却丢了工作。

BECKY QUICKI don't know this first-hand, but from what's been reported, there have been many whistle-blowers who said that they were trying to do the right thing. They tried to report it. And as a result they wound up losing their jobs.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,一旦你没做,你就陷入麻烦了。我的意思是,1991 年 4 月,约翰·古特弗罗因德得知保罗·莫泽,一个政府债券交易员,在做非常错误的事。他绝对——约翰没有从中获利。他不知道。但下一分钟他就得拿起电话,打给纽约联邦储备银行的格里·科里根。房间里所有人都以为他会这么做。但这很不愉快,或者他分心了。然后在 5 月 15 日,莫泽又做了一次,现在你处于的位置是,你抓住了他,你知道外面有个纵火犯会放火,你让他又划了一根火柴。然后你就麻烦大了。不管怎样,你必须行动。我的意思是,查理在这类事上对我很好。如果我告诉他任何问题,我的意思是,他不会让我拖延。我可能会拖延一点。这很人性。但无论如何,然后随着深入,他们会发现其他错误。现在我们的一些好机会也来自类似的情况。我的意思是,GEICO 在 70 年代初有个首席执行官,拒绝接受损失准备金在恶化的事实。如果你拒绝准确评估损失准备金,你也不知道成本,因为你先卖产品,然后开始自欺欺人地估计成本。然后就陷入困境了。现在你的准备金在——也许你想明白了。但如果你做了,就必须承认。闭上眼睛,希望好事发生更容易。这基本上让公司破产了。这对我们来说是个巨大机会,因为 GEICO 本质上是一家稳健的公司。但他们的资产负债表一团糟。他们需要融资。差点被吊销许可证。我们花了不到 5000 万美元买了公司一半股份。所以富国银行的基本业务,他们仍然有账户,有贷款客户。我们每天都和他们做生意。另外,其他银行在 2008 和 2009 年期间遇到了更多其他类型的麻烦。更多是卖大东西,你知道,比如抵押贷款支持证券之类的。所以银行都经历过各自的麻烦。但富国银行的方式尤其恶劣,简直是向公众嗤之以鼻。他们这样赚的钱远少于捆绑大额 MBS 并赚取数千万甚至数亿美元。罚款也很大,你知道,甚至更大。但未来,你可以停止坏做法。应该更早停止,越早越容易。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, once you have not done it, you're in the soup. I mean, John Gutfreund in April of 1991 got word that Paul Mozer, a trader in government bonds, was doing something that was very wrong. And he absolutely – John was not profiting by it. He didn't know about it. But the next minute he had to pick up that phone and call Gerry Corrigan of the Federal Reserve of New York. And everybody thought he was going to do it in the room. But it was unpleasant or he got distracted. And then on May 15th Mozer did it all over again and now the position you're in is you caught him and you knew this pyromaniac was out there who would set fires and you let him light another match. And then you're in big trouble. Anyway, you have to act. I mean, Charlie's been very good with me on things like that. If I tell him about anything is a problem, I mean, he doesn't let me procrastinate. And I might procrastinate a little. It's a very human trait. But anyway, and then they uncover other wrong things as you get into it. Now a couple of our great opportunities came from similar situations. I mean GEICO had a CEO in the early '70s who refused to accept the fact that the lost reserves were developing badly. Now if you refuse to accurately assess your loss reserves, you also don't know your costs because you sell the product first and then you start kidding yourself on the cost. And then you get in a hole. And now your reserves are at a – maybe you figure it out. But then you've got to admit it if you do it. And it's just easier to shut your eyes and hope that something good happens. And it essentially bankrupted the company. Now that was a huge opportunity for us because GEICO was a solid company underneath. But their balance sheet was a mess. They needed to raise capital. They almost got their licenses withdrawn. And we bought half the company for less than 50 million bucks. So the fundamental business of Wells Fargo, they've still got the accounts, they've got the loan customers. We do business with them every day. And incidentally, other banks ran into much other kinds of trouble in the 2008 and '09 period. More on the selling bigger stuff, you know, maybe mortgage back securities or something of the sort. So the banks had their share of trouble. But Wells had theirs in a particularly egregious way, which was really kind of thumbing their nose at the public. They made way, way, way less money doing that than if they were bundling big MBS' and raking it in by the tens or hundreds of millions. And the fines were big, you know, even bigger. But going forward, you can stop bad practices. They should be stopped earlier and much earlier is easier.

贝基·奎克我看所罗门的情况,你介入并负责清理。蒂姆·斯隆是内部人。蒂姆·斯隆不是——这事不是在他任内发生的。

BECKY QUICKI look at the situation with Salomon and you came in and were the person who had to clean it up. Tim Sloan was an insider. Tim Sloan was not the one who – this didn't happen on his watch.

沃伦·巴菲特不是,确实不是。

WARREN BUFFETTNo it didn't.

贝基·奎克但他当时是内部人。那——你能既是内部人,又充当收拾烂摊子的人吗?

BECKY QUICKBut he was an insider. Is that – can you be an insider and still be the one who cleans it up?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我收拾了涉及国会那边的烂摊子,试着定下基调等等。德雷克·莫恩(Deryck Maughan)进来了,我让他全权负责所罗门兄弟的运营。他所做的每一件事,可以说,都相当完美。我是说,他有那么多事需要去查去看,我们也不知道什么时候又会冒出新的意外。他每天工作 15 个小时,从未索要过任何形式的额外报酬。

<<<END P 15>>>

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I cleaned up affairs with Congress and tried to set a tone and everything. Deryck Maughan came in and I put him in total charge of running Salomon Brothers. And everything he did, you know, was perfect. I mean, and he had all kinds of things he had to look at, we didn't know when we'd get more surprises. He was working 15-hour days. He never asked for any extra compensation of any kind.

贝基·奎克而且他是所罗门的内部人。

BECKY QUICKAnd he was an insider at Salomon.

沃伦·巴菲特没错,他以前就是那儿的内部人。当然,他是我面试过的七八个高层人选之一。我必须找一个内部人,因为我周五才到那里,你知道,他们马上就要把我们关了——总得有人来管理一家交易规模可能上千亿美元、涉及国债之类的业务的公司。我们当时拥有华尔街最大的资产负债表。所以我根本不可能等,去从外面找人。我周六面试了一群人。我周五到的,周六下午之前就必须找出一个人来主持局面。而当时那个房间里有些人,本身就在某种程度上助长了那类行为背后的文化。所以我选了一个了解内情、认识所有相关人员的内部人。那个人表现得极其出色,帮我摆脱了困境。

WARREN BUFFETTOh yeah, he'd been an insider there. Sure, he was one of seven or eight people that would – top people I interviewed. I had to have an insider because I arrived there on a Friday, you know, and they were about closing us up – and somebody had to run a business that was doing more maybe hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of business and things like government bonds and everything. We had the largest balance sheet of Wall Street. So there was no way I could wait and get an outsider. I interviewed people on a Saturday. I started interviewing at 9:00 in the morning. I got in on a Friday. And I had to come up with somebody by Saturday afternoon to run the place. And there were people in that room that semi-contributed to the culture anyway that led to this activity. And so I picked an insider who knew about it, knew all the people involved. And the guy behaved magnificently and got me outta trouble.

贝基·奎克乔?

BECKY QUICKJoe?

乔·科南安德鲁想问你。

JOE KERNENAndrew wants to talk to you.

沃伦·巴菲特同样的事也发生在 GEICO 身上。他们选了一个新人。他们选了杰克·伯恩。

WARREN BUFFETTThe same thing happened to GEICO. They picked a new guy. They picked Jack Byrne.

乔·科南沃伦,我好奇富国银行跟你谈了多少。他们现在在进行彻底重启。昨天是富国银行锦标赛,在鹌鹑谷举行。我不知道你看了没有。但他们的整个广告宣传活动,都在回放富国银行创立时的场景,展示驿站马车和他们做过的一切。然后画面完全空白,旁白说,“但这件事发生了。而现在是全新的——”我的意思是,他们花钱请人做了整套广告,来宣告他们已经彻底重启、从头开始。而且,锦标赛上他们的发言人也全都在讲这个。我是说,这花了点时间。但他们终于走到了这一步,公开说,“所有历史都已过去,我们现在从头开始。”这相当惊人,他们不得不走到这一步。他们跟你谈过这个广告活动吗?

JOE KERNENWarren, I wonder how much Wells Fargo talked to you. They're on a complete reset now. Yesterday was a Wells Fargo championship down at Quail Hollow. I don't know if you saw it. But the entire advertising campaign they go back and show when Wells Fargo was, you know, was founded and they show stage coaches and everything they did. And then they just go completely blank where they say, "But this happened. And now it's the new—" I mean, they paid someone to get an entire ad campaign that there's been a complete reset and we're starting over. And, you know, the spokesperson that they had on at the tournament it's all they talked about as well. I mean, that took a while. But they finally got to the point where they're saying, "All that history is in the past and we're starting all over right now," which is pretty amazing that they had to come to that point. Did they talk to you about that advertising campaign?

沃伦·巴菲特谈过。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

乔·科南我猜也是。

JOE KERNENI guess they did.

沃伦·巴菲特不。没有。

WARREN BUFFETTNo. No.

乔·科南没有吗?他们没谈?

JOE KERNENNo, they didn't?

沃伦·巴菲特没有,我们从来没——在所罗门兄弟的时候,我们没有投放广告活动。但我在发布第三季度财报时,在《纽约时报》、《华尔街日报》和《金融时报》上登了一个跨版双页广告。我说了哪里出了问题,也说了我们打算怎么改。字体非常小。我们当时需要改变。富国银行这事,有意思。我第一次买入时是卡尔·赖卡特在管理。我可以告诉你,没有比卡尔·赖卡特更好的人了。这种事在卡尔·赖卡特手下根本不会发生。但机构会犯错。我可以跟你说,伯克希尔现在有 37.7 万名员工,此时此刻,我不知道是五个人、十个人还是二十个人——但我保证不会是零——正在做错事。我的工作就是,一听到任何情况就采取行动,并确保我们有某种机制能听到这些情况。我们每年通过所谓的热线会收到大约 2000 条举报。我还会收到匿名信。这是发现问题的最好的两个来源。我是说,这比派 100 个人把账册翻个底朝天更管用。匿名,匿名的。有时候他们也署名。但我上周刚收到一封,你知道。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, we never – and at Salomon, we did not run an advertising campaign. But I ran a two-page, double truck ad in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times when we reported our third quarter. And I said what was wrong and I said how we were going to change it. And it was in very small type. And we needed change. Wells, it's interesting. I first bought in when Carl Reichardt was running it. I can tell you that there's no finer guy than Carl Reichardt. It wouldn't have happened under Carl Reichardt. But institutions make mistakes. And I will tell you this, we have 377,000 people working for Berkshire and right now I don't know whether five of them or ten of them or 20 of them – but I'll guarantee it isn't zero – are doing something wrong. And my job is to act when I hear about anything. And to make sure we've got some system so we do hear about things. So we get about 2,000 contacts through what we call the hotline a year. I get anonymous letters. And those are the two best sources of finding out where something's wrong. I mean, it's better than having 100 people crawling all over the books. Anonymous, anonymous. Sometimes they sign them. But I just received one last week, you know.

贝基·奎克你上周收到一封关于伯克希尔内部某件事的举报信?

BECKY QUICKYou received one last week about something happening at Berkshire?

沃伦·巴菲特对,当然。但我的意思是,我一直在收到这类信件——而且,它们总会来的。有时候人们就是不喜欢旁边一起干活的那个人,所以,你知道,他们出于很多无关紧要的理由来举报。但你得去查清楚到底是怎么回事。你查了 100 条线索,可能有 99 条是“我旁边那家伙有口臭”之类的。但说到底,你基本上都是靠这样来发现问题的——就是靠线索。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, sure. But, I mean, I receive them all the – and I mean, they're going to come in. And sometimes people just don't like the person working next to them so they, you know, they come in for a lot of frivolous reasons. But you have to look into what it is. And if you look at 100 and 99 are, you know, the guy next to me has bad breath, you know, or something like that. But that's the way you do find them, overwhelmingly, is tips basically.

贝基·奎克你如何追踪每一条这样的线索?

BECKY QUICKHow do you track down every one of those tips?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们有一个审计部门,他们会筛选出那些他们认为我应该看的内容。你知道,贝基·阿米克负责审计部门。顺便说一句,规模较大的公司,他们内部也有自己的团队。但那些人不仅可以向自己公司举报,也可以写信给我们。有些举报信就是直接寄给“沃伦·巴菲特 董事长”收——通常没有签名。但这没关系,我是说,很明显,当内容变得非常具体,比如“某个事正在发生”或“那个事正在进行”,1964 年美国运通那件事就是这样。他们有一家现场仓储子公司。他们接到一个从贝永一家酒吧打来的电话,打给负责人的,那人说:“那些储油罐是假的。去查查这个罐,再去查查那个罐,你会发现里面装的不是固态油。”但那个人不想听这些。他也不愿意告诉自己的老板。事情就变得越来越糟,越来越糟。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we have an audit department that sorts out the ones that they think I ought to see. I mean, you know, so Becki Amick is in charge of the audit department. And incidentally, the larger companies, they have their own groups too. But those people could not only write their own company but they could write us. And some of them just come into, you know, a letter comes into Warren Buffett chairman – it's usually not signed. But that's okay, I mean, and obviously when they get very specific and say, "This is going on or that's going on," that's what happened at American Express in 1964. They had a field warehousing subsidiary. They were getting calls from a guy at a bar in Bayonne to the head of the – and he was saying, "The tanks are phony. Go to this tank and go to that tank and you will find that it's not filled with solid oil." And the guy didn't want to hear it. And he didn't want to tell his boss. And it just gets worse and worse and worse.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金嘿,沃伦?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINHey, Warren?

贝基·奎克安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金周六那场会上你点评完富国银行之后,我收到几封邮件,有人问我能不能追问一个问题。问题是这样的:你买入所罗门的时候,是在所罗门出事后才介入的。你举的其他例子里,机会之所以出现,是因为你当时没持有那几只股票。而富国银行的情况是,你一直在持股。所以有两个问题。第一,你是否希望自己当初出问题时没有持股?也就是说,你是不是更愿意把钱投到比如摩根大通上——我知道你个人之前买过它。还有人问,你有一句名言:如果丢了信誉,“我会毫不留情”。问题是,这次你会什么时候毫不留情,或者说要到什么程度你才会毫不留情,是富国银行这事就够,还是必须做得更恶劣才行?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINYou know, after you had commented on Wells Fargo during the meeting when we discussed it on Saturday I got a couple of emails of folks who asked me I could – if there could be a follow-up question. So the follow-up question is this. When you bought Salomon you came in after Salomon had its problems. And some of the other examples that you gave, the opportunity came because you weren't in the stock. In the case of Wells Fargo, you've been in the stock. So there were two questions. One is do you wish you weren't in the stock when they had the problems, meaning would you have preferred to put your money, for example, in something like JPMorgan, which I know you've put personal money in before. And somebody else said that, you know, you famously said if you lose reputation, "I will be ruthless." And the question is, when will you be ruthless or at what point would you be ruthless either in this case of Wells Fargo or does it have to be even more egregious?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我说“毫不留情”指的是替我做事的人。但我不——答案是,我当然希望自己当初买的是别的银行股,然后现在卖掉它们,这样就能现在买进富国银行。我是说,富国银行实际上正在大量回购股票。你可能会说,正因为出了这些坏消息,他们回购成本更低,所以每股价值反而在提升。但我觉得,十年后你去看,如果从今天起往后看十年,你去看富国银行的十年记录,你极有可能会发现它跑赢大多数竞争对手。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'd be ruthless if anybody was working for me. But I don't – and the answer is, of course I wish I wish I'd bought the other stocks – bank stocks – and then sold them now so I'd be buying Wells Fargo now. I mean, Wells Fargo actually is buying in a lot of shares. And you can argue that they are improving the per share value because they had this bad news they're buying it cheaper. But I think ten years from now, I think if you look at the ten-year record of Wells Fargo ten years from now you will – you're very likely to find that it outperforms most of its competitors.

贝基·奎克如果允许的话,你现在会继续买入更多股票吗?你不能,因为受银行监管的持股上限限制,伯克希尔对富国银行的持股已达到 10%。

BECKY QUICKWould you be buying more shares now if you could? You can't because of the bank thresholds, bank owned 10%.

沃伦·巴菲特对,如果——我不想给出该买哪只股票的建议。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, if – I don't want to give recommendations on which stocks to buy.

贝基·奎克好吧。不过回到安德鲁的另一个问题,我觉得你刚才只是一带而过。关于“毫不留情”这件事,你曾说过,如果你让公司哪怕损失一丝信誉——

BECKY QUICKYeah. To Andrew's other point though, I think you touched on it very quickly. But the idea of being ruthless, if you lose a shred of reputation for the company—

沃伦·巴菲特那说的是伯克希尔。

WARREN BUFFETTThat's Berkshire.

贝基·奎克对,但你现在是在做区分——把伯克希尔旗下全资子公司和股票投资区分开来。

BECKY QUICKRight, but what you're saying, you're distinguishing between Berkshire-owned companies and investments.

沃伦·巴菲特当然。当然。

WARREN BUFFETTSure. Sure.

贝基·奎克或许有必要指出一点,你在富国银行是一家银行的被动投资者,而且你必须保持被动。

BECKY QUICKIt may be worth pointing out that you're a passive investor in Wells Fargo and the bank and you have to be.

沃伦·巴菲特对,嗯,我必须做一个被动投资者。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, I have to be a passive investor.

贝基·奎克但我不确定所有人都理解这一点。

BECKY QUICKBut I'm not sure everyone understands that.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。不,不,不。我们不是——我们不想成为一家银行控股公司。如果我们持股超过 10%,在某个节点上我们的活动就可能使我们变成银行控股公司,或者触发某些——我们没有——我们以前拥有过一家银行。我们在 1980 年被迫把它处置掉了。我们买了一家银行,然后 1969 年的银行法案通过了。我们本来还会买更多银行的。我喜欢银行业这门生意。后来他们在 1969 年修改了法律,给了我们十年剥离期。说不定是 1970 年改的。我们有十年时间剥离我们拥有的那家银行。但我不会——如果不是在 1970 年前后改了法律,我们现在还会持有那家银行,而且还会持有其他银行。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. No, no, no. We are not – we do not want to be a bank-holding company. Now, we can become a bank-holding company if we own over 10% and there's a point at which your activities could make you or some of these – we have no – we owned a bank. And we had to dispose of it back in 1980. We bought a bank and then they passed the banking act of 1969. We'd have bought more banks actually. I like the banking business. And then they changed the law in 1969 and we had ten years to divest. Maybe they changed it in 1970. We had ten years to divest of the bank we owned. But I would not – we'd still own that bank and we'd own other banks if they hadn't changed the law in the 1970 period.

贝基·奎克好的。

BECKY QUICKOkay.

沃伦·巴菲特但我不会为此负责。你的苹果手机出问题,也别怪我。

WARREN BUFFETTBut I don't feel responsible. If you're having trouble with your Apple phone don't blame me.

贝基·奎克好的。我们还有更多沃伦·巴菲特的内容要播出。现在我们切回演播室,交给乔和安德鲁。

BECKY QUICKOkay. We have much more from Warren Buffett still to come. Right now we're going to send it back to Joe and Andrew in the studio.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金好的。广告之后,节目回来将播出亿万富豪峰会。届时沃伦·巴菲特将与伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格及伯克希尔董事会成员比尔·盖茨一同亮相,东部时间早上 8 点开始。《财经论谈》稍后从奥马哈回到现场。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOkay. Coming up when we return, billionaire summit. Warren Buffett's going to be joined by Berkshire vice chair Charlie Munger and Berkshire board member Bill Gates. That starts at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. "Squawk Box" returns from Omaha in just a moment.

贝基·奎克好的,大家早上好。欢迎回到《财经论谈》,我们正在奥马哈现场直播。今天,我们要推出沃伦·巴菲特档案库。这是一个网站,拥有全世界关于巴菲特谈论商业、投资、金钱和人生的最完整收藏。它涵盖了伯克希尔·哈撒韦 25 场完整的股东大会,沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格在现场回答观众提问。这些资料最早可以追溯到 1994 年,每一年都有精选片段。顺便说一句,各位,这是你们能获取这套完整档案的唯一地方。它还有 130 个小时的可搜索视频内容,同步配上了 2600 页的文字记录,这些记录由亚历克斯·克里彭(Alex Crippen)逐字逐句悉心核对,他干得相当出色,确保了自己把提到的每一点都弄得清清楚楚。这些都是手工完成的。我管这叫 AC,而不是 AI,是亚历克斯·克里彭的缩写。里面有 500 个视频片段,涵盖几十个主题,外加 CNBC 的采访、一条巴菲特时间线和一个伯克希尔持仓追踪器。如果你想看看,一定要今天就去看,网址是 Buffett.CNBC.com。沃伦,您也有机会看了这个。这些都是因为您把 25 年的股东大会资料开放给了我们的 NBC 环球董事长史蒂夫·伯克(Steve Burke)。这些资料本来是伯克希尔这些年来一直自己保管着的。

BECKY QUICKAll right, good morning again, everybody. Welcome back to "Squawk Box" where we are live from Omaha. Today we are introducing the Warren Buffett archive. This is a website with the world's largest collection of Buffett speaking about business, investing, money and life. It includes 25 full annual meetings for Berkshire Hathaway with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger taking questions from the audience. It goes all the way back to 1994 with a highlight reel for each year. By the way, folks, this is the only place that you can get this complete archive. It's also got 130 hours of searchable video. It's synchronized to 2,600 pages of transcripts that have been painstakingly checked by Alex Crippen who did a phenomenal job of running through and making sure he knew exactly what everything that was mentioned was done. This was done by hand. I'm calling it, instead of AI, AC for Alex Crippen. There are 500 video clips covering scores of subjects plus CNBC interviews, a Buffett timeline and a Berkshire portfolio tracker. If you want to check it out make sure you do it today, it's Buffett.CNBC.com. Warren, you got a chance to take a look at this too. And this came from you giving Steve Burke, our chairman at NBCUniversal, access to 25 years of annual meetings. This is stuff that only Berkshire's been holding onto for this time.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,史蒂夫之前跟我提过几次。后来他提的时候态度更坚决了些。听起来是个好主意。我本来没想到能做成这个样子。所以我们就把所有股东大会的材料都给了他。我们没有给电影那段,因为里面有些内容我们承诺过不公开,你知道,不过——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, Steve had suggested it to me a few times. And then he suggested it a little stronger. And it sounded like a good idea. I didn't think it could be done like this. So we just gave him all the annual meeting material. We didn't give the movie because that's got some stuff that we've promised not to put out, you know, but—

贝基·奎克您是指那些有名人出镜的内容。

BECKY QUICKYou mean with celebrities who have done things.

沃伦·巴菲特名人确实会出场,没错。不过就股东大会来说,你知道,从头到尾,我们手上有的全部资料。统统给了史蒂夫。我还跟史蒂夫说:“你想怎么处理都行。”我的意思是,我认识史蒂夫很久了。我本来觉得这活儿不可能完成。但我知道,要是这事真能做成,那一定会做得很出色。我看到成品时确实大感震撼。

WARREN BUFFETTThe celebrities come on, yeah. But in terms of the annual meetings, you know, door to – portal-to-portal and everything we had. Everything we had. And even, you know, with university students – anything we had, we gave Steve. And I told Steve, "You can do with it exactly what you want." I mean, I've known Steve a long time. And I thought it'd be an impossible job. But I knew that if it was done, it would be done well. I mean, it blew my mind when I saw it.

贝基·奎克对我来说,光是回头去查证一些事情,这个网站就确实管用,因为这么多年下来,很多事都混在一起了,你记不清到底是谁说的,是你还是查理,或者原话是怎么说的。搜索功能比我预想的还好用,光是在查找这件事上。比如说我可能想知道你什么时候开始买苹果股票。输入“苹果股票”,结果就出来了。我甚至还能往回翻,链接到文字记录,再点击一下就直接跳到那段视频,看到你当时究竟为什么买入。

BECKY QUICKI mean, it's been really useful for me just going back trying to figure things out because over the years things kind of blend together when you said what or exactly what you said or if it was you who said it or Charlie who said it. The search function is better than I had anticipated just in terms of being able to look up things. Like maybe I wanted to find out when you started buying shares of Apple. Type in Apple shares and it comes up. And I can even go back, link to the transcript and then click to the video of you saying exactly why you were buying it.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,对我来说,光回想自己说过什么本来就挺有意思。不过所有东西都在里头。我的意思是,本来就该是这样。我太喜欢这个主意了。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it'd be more fun for me to just recall what I was saying. The bottom of all. But it's all there. I mean and that's the way it should be. I just love the idea of it.

贝基·奎克太好了,谢谢。电视机前的各位,如果你们想看看,网址再说一遍,是 Buffett.CNBC.com。网站已经上线。我们也想听听你们的看法。今天早上节目回来后,我们还有更多沃伦·巴菲特的内容,此外,伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格,以及微软联合创始人、伯克希尔董事比尔·盖茨将加入我们一小时。节目将在美国东部时间早上 8 点开始。我们马上从内布拉斯加州奥马哈回到直播现场。安德鲁,非常感谢。再次提醒各位,我们在内布拉斯加州奥马哈现场直播。这里就是本周末伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会的举办地,第 53 届股东大会。我们的特邀嘉宾是伯克希尔董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦,再次感谢您今天早上参与我们的节目。

BECKY QUICKGreat, thank you. And folks at home, if you are wanting to check this out the address, again, is Buffett.CNBC.com. The website is live. We'd love to hear what you think about it too. When we come back this morning, we have much more from Warren Buffett plus we'll be joined for an hour by Berkshire's vice chair Charlie Munger and Microsoft co-founder and Berkshire board member Bill Gates. That is coming up at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. We will be right back live from Omaha, Nebraska. Andrew, thank you very much. Again, folks, we are live in Omaha, Nebraska. This was the site of the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this weekend, the 53rd annual meeting. Our special guest is Berkshire's chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett. And, Warren, thank you again for being with us this morning.

沃伦·巴菲特挺开心的。

WARREN BUFFETTIt's fun.

贝基·奎克确实很开心。我想聊聊伯克希尔持有的巨额现金。去年年底,您持有 1160 亿美元现金。您上周告诉我们——您一季度花出去了大约 120 亿到 130 亿美元。所以,考虑到您可能还买了其他一些东西,您觉得现金持有量更接近 1000 亿美元。好吧。那么您花出去了几十亿美元,但手上还有 1000 亿美元。这——这算理想状况吗?

BECKY QUICKIt is fun. I want to talk through the cash hoard that Berkshire has. At the end of the year, you had $116 billion in cash. You told us last week-- that you had spent about $12 to $13 billion in the first quarter. So you were thinking the cash hoard was closer to $100 billion based on some other things that you had potentially bought as well. Okay. So you're spending billions of dollars, but you still have $100 billion. Is-- is that ideal?

沃伦·巴菲特不。不。这笔钱我们几乎挣不到什么收益。不过——我们今年在这上面挣的会比去年稍微多一点——但它大概算是世界上最差的投资了,除非你做的是某种长期来看更蠢的事。然而——它确实在某个巨无霸机会出现时,给了你迅速出手的能力。但我更希望那个数字是 300 亿美元,而不是 1000 亿美元,然后让另外那 700 亿美元投出去——理想情况是投进我们拥有的企业里,但也可以是我们持有的证券。而我们的确做了投资,举个例子,我们在第一季度投了——我不太记得第一季度是多少,四月份又是多少了。但我们净投出去了大约 150 亿美元买入股票。我很喜欢这点。如果能找到足够多的标的买到足够的量,要是第一季度我能投出去 500 亿,我会更开心。或者我们买下了一家 500 亿美元的企业。但——你也不能让钱在口袋里烧出个洞来。我的意思是,我们做生意——如果我们买下一家企业,我们是为了长久持有。所以,不论我们为一家企业付了 X 还是 2X 的价格,企业本身并不知道,它也不会根据我付的价格来调整。它还是挣同样的钱,所以——如果我在买价上犯了错,伯克希尔·哈撒韦会永远背负着这个错误。

WARREN BUFFETTNo. No. It-- it-- it's-- we earn very little on it. But that is-- we will earn a little more this year on it than-- but it's-- it's-- it's just about the world's w-- worst investment except doing something dumb that y-- you're doing for a longer term. And-- but it does give you the ability to move very quickly if something very big comes along. But I would much rather have that number be $30 billion than $100 billion and have that-- the other $70 billion invested in-- ideally in businesses we own but also-- in securities we own. And we did, for example, put out-- I don't know whether it was-- how much was in the first quarter, how much was in April I'm not sure. But-- but we-- we-- we put out 15 or so billion net-- into stocks. And I like that. And-- and it wouldn't-- if I could find 'em and buy 'em in sufficient quantity, if that had been 50 billion, I would have been even happier in the first quarter. Or if we'd bought a $50 billion business. But-- you don't want to let money burn a hole in your pocket either. I mean, we-- we make-- if we buy a business, we buy it to keep. So-- if we pay X for a business or 2X for a business, the business doesn't know, it's doesn't adapt itself to what I'm paying. And it's going to earn the same, and so it – if I make a mistake on purchase price, Berkshire Hathaway lives with that mistake. Forever.

贝基·奎克那么,对于我们旁人来说,看到您手里握着 1000 亿美元,我们就会觉得您认为市场看起来很贵,找不到任何比现金或短期国债更值得投钱的标的。

BECKY QUICKAnd so, for the rest of us who see you sitting on $100 billion, we think that you think the market looks expensive and that you can't find anything that's worth putting your money into that's better than cash or short-term treasuries.

沃伦·巴菲特我们——我们持有 1700 亿美元的股票。每个季度都在涨,第一季度涨了不少。所以——不,我更愿意持有我们现在拥有的这 1700 亿美元股票,而不是国库券,差距非常大。但我能买多少我喜欢的一些公司是有限制的。通常我们几乎总是买到 10% 就停手了。所以,不,如果你告诉我我有选择权,可以调整——如果你告诉我可以在国库券、长期国债和普通股之间选,我会买普通股,而且如果我要持有 10 年或 20 年,我眨眼就会做。我们会把钱用起来的。我们——我们——会有事情发生的。

WARREN BUFFETTWe – we own $170 billion worth of equities. We go up every quarter, and we went up a fair amount in the first quarter. So – no, I would rather own the $170 billion of stocks we have than own treasury bills by a very significant margin. But there are limits to how much I can buy of -- of some of these companies that I like. Usually we quit at 10% almost always. So, no, if you told me I had a choice and I could make a change – if you told me I could make the choice of owning treasury bills, long-term treasuries or common equities, I'd buy common equities, and I-- I was gonna keep it for 10 years or 20 years, I'd do it in a second. And-- we'll get the money in play. We-- we've-- something will happen.

贝基·奎克总会遇到点事,指的是出现一笔大交易?

BECKY QUICKSomething will happen meaning a big deal?

沃伦·巴菲特有可能。当然。我说不定明天就把钱全花了。我的意思是,我不会把整整 1000 亿都花光。但我会——虽然如果有一笔 1000 亿美元的交易出现,而且查理和我确实喜欢的话,我们会做成的。

WARREN BUFFETTIt could. Yeah. Sure. I could spend it all tomorrow. I mean, I wouldn't spend the whole 100. But I'd-- I-- I-- I-- although if a 100 million-- a $100 billion deal came along that-- Charlie and I really liked, we'd get it done.

贝基·奎克您会怎么做成——是把现金全花光,还是找个提供融资的合作伙伴?

BECKY QUICKYou'd get it done by spending it all or by a financing partner?

沃伦·巴菲特呃,我们可能得——我们可能会借 300 亿。250 亿或 300 亿。或者我们可能会卖掉一些东西。我是说——不论哪种方式,只要是我们喜欢的交易,我们都会想法子把它做成。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we'd probably have to-- we might borrow 30. 25 or 30. Or we might sell some things. I mean-- but one way or another, we'd get it done if we liked the deal.

贝基·奎克这个周末有不少股东发来了问题。我没——没——能——把大家提的所有问题都问出来。有些人问:“200 亿仍然是你觉得拿着就安心的金额吗?”还有人问:“既然你有这么多现金,又告诉我们都把钱投到标普指数里去,那你为什么不把你这 1000 亿美元投进标普指数呢?”

BECKY QUICKThere are-- questions that came in from shareholders that I got this weekend. And I-- I-- I didn't get a chance to ask you all the questions that came in. Some of them said, "Is 20 billion still the amount that you feel comfortable holding?" Others asked, "If you've got all this and you're telling all of us to put our money in an S&P index, why don't you put that $100 billion in an S&P index?"

沃伦·巴菲特如果我们真这么做,倒也不是世界上最蠢的事。但——那笔资金量太大,进出不方便。没有指数基金能接得住,首先,因为他们知道我们可能会想在一周内抽走 500 亿美元。所以——我们——我们——我们几乎得自己创建一个指数基金来做这件事。

WARREN BUFFETTIt wouldn't be the dumbest thing in the world if we did. But-- that's a lot to move in and out. No index fund would take it, I mean, to start with-- knowing that we would want to-- might want to yank it out-- 50 billion of it out in a week. So we-- we-- we'd almost have to create our own-- index fund to do it.

贝基·奎克那应该不难。

BECKY QUICKIt wouldn't be hard.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,那——那——那工作量不小。我的意思是,他们更适合按正确比例买入 500 只股票并保持指数。但我们可以创建一个准指数基金。而且——那——那——那会比我们实际做的更聪明,贝基。那——那会更聪明。你知道,我的意思是,我——我——我考虑过这一点。我觉得——如果将来你想退出,必须清掉 500 个持仓,操作起来会更难一些。我喜欢出手时快刀斩乱麻。但总体而言,如果你告诉我未来 30 年伯克希尔会保留超额现金——我们还会保留至少 200 亿在国债——或者国库券里。但如果你告诉我,对于超额资金,我们会采用指数基金策略而不是国库券策略,我会说,假设我们能合理执行的话,指数基金策略会奏效。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it-- it-- it'd be a fair amount. I mean, they're better set up to do it than we are to buy 500 sto-- stocks in the proper proportions and keep an index. But we could create something that was a quasi-index fund. And-- that-- that-- that would have been smarter than what we've done, Becky. That-- that would have been smarter. You know, I mean, I've-- I've-- I've thought about that some. I think-- I think it's a little harder to act when you see something later on if you do have to unwind 500 positions and all. I-- I like to move when I move. So I-- but net, if you told me over the next 30 years that Berkshire would keep it's excess-- that we'd still have 20 billion in-- at least in treasuries-- but-- or treasury bills. But if you told me we were gonna follow-- for the excess money we were gonna follow an index fund policy versus a treasury bill policy, I would say the index fund policy would work well assuming we could execute it reasonably well.

贝基·奎克好的。我们——我们来谈谈——苹果,这是你第一季度花费大部分现金的地方,也是你部署资金的地方。你投入了 120 亿到 130 亿美元。这还不算,我想去年年底时你已经持有苹果 270 亿或 280 亿美元——也许已经是 290 亿美元了。这是那 1700 亿美元中的一大块。它也是你持有的最大股票,远超过其他。在买入这些额外股份之前,它就已经是了。7500 万股。为什么?

BECKY QUICKOkay. Let-- let's talk-- about Apple, the-- the place where you were spending the bulk of-- of that cash that you were in the first quarter where you were deploying it. $12 to $13 billion that you put in. That's on top of the, I think $27 or $28 billion you already-- maybe it was 29 billion you already owned in Apple as of the end of the year. That's a big chunk of that $170 billion. It's the biggest stock that you own by far. It already was before you bought these additional shares. 75 million shares. Why?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯——我得说,过去我们有很多次,单只股票在我们总净资产中占更大比例。但就近期而言——嗯——它——它是——它是——它是我喜欢的公司,我非常喜欢它的业务。而且我们能买很多。还有一些其他公司,它们规模小得多,我们就是买不了那么多。我可能同样喜欢它们,但投不了那么多钱。但我显然喜欢苹果。而且——我们买入持有。而且——我们买入了大约 5% 的公司股份。我——我愿意拥有它 100% 的股份。但这就是考验。你会愿意拥有一家公司 100% 的股份吗?如果——如果你要买入 5%——我们在买入苹果时,心里想的不是买股票。我们是在买入一家企业 5% 的股份。我们买入一些企业 100% 的股份。而当它们公开上市时,我们买入 5%。但我们带着同样的思考去做。而且——而且——我们非常——非常喜欢他们业务的经济特性。而且我们非常喜欢管理层,喜欢他们的思考方式和行事方式。

WARREN BUFFETTWell-- I should say in the past we had plenty of times when-- when a single stock was a bigger proportion of our total net worth. But in terms of recent times-- well-- it-- it was-- it was-- it was a company I liked, a business I liked very much. And we could buy a lot of it. There are some others that-- that are much smaller companies we just can't buy that much. I might like them equally as well, but I can't put as much money in it. But I clearly like Apple. And-- and we buy up 'em to hold. And-- and we bought about 5% of the company. And-- I'd love to own 100% of it. But that's the test. Would you like to own 100% of a company? If-- if you're gonna by 5%-- we're not buying a stock when we buy Apple in our minds. We're buying 5% of a business. We buy 100% of some businesses. And when they're publicly held, we buy 5%. But we bring the same thinking to it. And-- and--we like-- we like very much the economics of their activities. And we like very much the management, and the way they think, and the way they act.

贝基·奎克安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金另一个问题,沃伦,我们周末没机会问——是关于 USG。这笔交易你——你已经参与了。你历来避免——所谓的敌意收购,并说过你不想参与其中。这笔交易有点微妙——因为在这个——USG 的情况下,你实际上支持了一家公司——这家公司试图实际上接管 USG。你能不能——能不能稍微谈一下?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOne of the-- other questions, Warren, that we didn't get a chance to ask-- over the weekend-- was one-- about USG. This is a transaction you-- you've been involved. You've historically avoided-- what are described as hostile takeovers and said you didn't want to be involved in them. This one's a little tricky-- because the US-- in the-- this case of USG, you have effectively backed a company-- that is trying to effectively take over USG. Can you-- can you talk about that a little bit?

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们 18 年前第一次买入 USG,投了相当大一笔钱。2006 年,这家公司——公司曾经——两次破产。而且——而且——这家公司还面临巨额的石棉索赔。我们伯克希尔单枪匹马地为它做了一次一比一股权增发的后盾,这是非常罕见的。我们投了 16 亿或 17 亿美元——这家公司——在破产重组走出时做了一次一比一增发。然后——两年后,2008 年——当——危机爆发,也冲击了房地产市场,这家公司发现自己又需要用钱了。当时它需要 4 亿美元,我们拿出了其中的 3 亿。从我们第一次买入股票算起已经 18 年,从我们实际上为这家公司走出破产提供资金算起已经 12 年,我们从来没收到过一分钱股息。而且我们 2006 年以 40 美元为后盾的那只股票,当时卖——后来一直在低于那个价格交易。而且——总体来说,盈利预期、新产品这些东西——你知道,都没达到预期。这种事情也会发生在我们自己持股的公司身上。我是说——生意有时候很难做。但后来另一家公司也递来了收购要约,这家公司同样是持股 18 年的股东,也是一家非常负责任的建材公司——它实际上和我们的约翰斯·曼维尔公司是竞争对手。这家公司提出了收购要约。而 USG——我们拥有 USG 30% 的股份。(这家公司没有打电话来说:“你们觉得这个要约怎么样?”或者类似的话。他们只是事后打了个电话,说董事会一致决定,认为与对方谈判或做任何类似的事不符合我们的利益。而且——就像我说的,我们拥有这家公司 30% 的股份。然后那家公司又提出了第二次要约。是德国公司 Knauf。结果再次被拒绝,没有任何谈判或类似的动作。所以我们确实觉得那些董事——可能——是非常好的人。我不认识他们。但我们觉得他们——他们没有代表我们的利益——我们说过——我们打算在股东大会上投票反对他们。我们自己没有提出候选人或者类似的事情。我们只是认为董事的存在就是为了代表股东。而——我们并不觉得他们确实在代表我们这 30% 的利益。而且从那以后,两家代理咨询机构——ISS 和 Glass-Steagall——Glass Lewis——也表态了——他们觉得——他们建议投票反对这些董事。现在这家公司又说要跟 Knauf 谈判了。所以这就是——这就是目前的情况。我们——这——这大概是伯克希尔 53 年来头一次,我们反对了一份董事候选人名单。几年前我们在可口可乐投过反对票——是因为一项薪酬计划。我们还对个别的议案投过一两次反对票。可能是针对股票期权之类的东西。但——但——但这只是——问题在于——股东是否应该决定——他们觉得这家公司的价值是多少。我所知道的就是——18 年来,情况并不怎么好。而且——而且——管理层一直比——后来的实际结果——要乐观。而且——我们觉得他们应该坐下来好好谈。

沃伦,还有一个问题很多股东都问过。周六我们问答环节时多少也涉及了一些,但我想也许你可以再多讲一点细节。就是关于消费品包装公司。比如可口可乐这样的公司——上个月股价跌到了 52 周低点,尽管公司交出了好于预期的盈利——还有像卡夫亨氏这样的公司,过去 12 个月跌了大约 35%,而标普 500 指数涨了 11%,这让很多人觉得消费品包装公司的前景没那么光明了。我——我觉得——豪尔赫·保罗甚至可能最近在米尔肯会议上开玩笑说,觉得自己像恐龙。你怎么看——好吧——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We bought USG first 18 years ago. We made a substantial investment. In 2006, the company-- company had been-- went into bankruptcy twice. And-- and-- and the company faced these huge asbestos claims. And we backstopped singlehandedly, Berkshire did, a one-for-one stock offering, which is very unusual. And we backed with a billion six or a billion seven-- this company c-- coming out of bankruptcy having a one-for-one offering. And-- and then two years later, in 2008-- when the-- the crisis hit and also hit housing, the company found itself needing money again. And-- we put up 300 of the $400 million they needed at that time. And 18 years from the time we bought the first stock and 12 years from the time we in effect bankrolled the company in terms of coming out of bankruptcy, we've never received a dividend. And the stock that we backstopped in 2006 at $40 was selling-- has been selling for less than that. And-- and in general, the-- the earnings estimates, the new products, and that sorta thing-- you know, have fallen short. Now, that happens with companies we own, too. I mean-- business can be tough. But when they received an offer from another company that also had been an 18-year-old shareholder and perf-- perfectly responsible-- building materials company-- that actually competes with our company Johns Manville, this company, they made an offer. And-- the company did not-- we own 30% of USG. (The c-- the company did not call and say, "What do you think of this offer?" Anything of the sort. They just called afterwards and said that their board had unanimously decided that it wasn't in our interest to-- negotiate with them or anything. And-- and like I say, we own 30% of the company. And then the company made a second offer. And-- the German company Knauf. And, again, they were turned down with no negotiation or anything of the sort. So we really felt the directors were p-- probably f-- very fine people. I don't know them. But we felt that they-- they did not represent our interest and that-- and we said that-- we intended to vote against them at the annual meeting. We don't have a candidate of our own or anything like that. But we just think that directors are there to represent shareholders. And-- we do not feel that they were certainly representing us with a 30% interest. And I-- and it's been since then that two proxy advising organizations, ISS and Glass-Steagall -- Glass Lewis, have said that-- they think-- they recommend a vote against these directors as well. And now the company said it's going to negotiate with the-- with-- Knauf. So that's-- that-- that is the situation. We-- that-- that's the first time I think in the 53 years I've been at Berkshire that we've voted against a slate. We withheld our vote at Coca-Cola a few years ago about-- because of a compensation plan. And we voted a time or two against individual issues. Maybe on stock options or something of the sort. But-- but-- but it's just-- it's a question of-- of whether-- the stockholders should determine what-- what they think the value of the company is. All-- all I know is that-- that for 18 years it has not worked out that well. And-- and-- and management has been more optimistic than-- than-- subsequent events-- delivered. And-- and-- we thought they should sit down and negotiate. Warren, another question that came up from a lot of shareholders. We-- we covered it some in the question and answers period on Saturday, but I thought maybe you could go into a little more deal-- detail on it. Just the idea of consumer packaged goods. Companies like Coca-Cola-- which hit a 52-week low last month even though the company came in with better than expected earnings on issues-- and-- and a company like Kraft Heinz, which is down about 35% over the last 12 months versus the S&P being up 11%, it-- it has a lot of people thinking that consumer packaged goods-- don't have as a bright of a future. I-- I think-- Jorge Paulo may have even called them-- saying jokingly that he felt like a dinosaur at the Milken Conference recently. What-- what do you think when you-- Well--

贝基·奎克——看这些领域?

BECKY QUICK--look at these areas?

沃伦·巴菲特——它们仍然是很好的业务。我是说,你有一个品牌。如果你看有形资产回报率,你知道——在可口可乐,或者卡夫亨氏——你有一个非常好的业务。它看起来不像五年前或十年前那么好了。换句话说,我认为有两个原因。一个是,在我看来,人们似乎比——比过去更愿意尝试不同的饮食或食物——

WARREN BUFFETT--it's-- they're still very good businesses. I mean, you've got a brand. If you look at the return on tangible assets, you know-- at Coca-Cola, or at Kraft Heinz-- you've got a very good business. It doesn't look as good as it did five or 10 years ago. In other words, There-- there's two reasons I think for that. One is, people are-- seem to me to be a little more willing to experiment with different diets or foods than they were--

贝基·奎克说下去。你是指——

BECKY QUICKGive me. You mean--

沃伦·巴菲特——五年前或十年前相比。

WARREN BUFFETT--five or 10 years ago.

贝基·奎克——有些人会说健康饮食,他们不吃包装食品。他们认为那对他们不好。这也是千禧一代的态度,他们不买老品牌。

BECKY QUICK-- Some people would say healthy diets where they won't eat things that are packaged. They think that's bad for them. It's a millennial attitude, too, where they won't buy from the old brands.

沃伦·巴菲特这当然——是一个因素,在所有这一切里,我想它可能还在某种程度上超越了千禧一代。人们更加——嗯,他们对生活中更多的变化总体上已经习惯了。而且——而且——所以我要说——忠诚度因素仍然非常巨大。只是——但它不如五年、十年或二十年前那么强了。其次——零售商和品牌之间一直存在角力。我是说,现在——你没法——我是说,这——这是美国市场体系的内置特征。而我要说零售商——而且——而且——他们一直都有自有品牌。在其他一些国家,自有品牌比美国强大得多,比如说。而且——自有品牌的价格低于大品牌。而——零售商——每次零售商与——一位包装食品——推销员碰面时,他们都在为更低的价格和更好的交易条件而争论。而我要说——随着开市客、沃尔玛,以及在其他国家的这类零售商——变得越来越强,他们的筹码——变得越来越大——角力可能会向某一方略微倾斜。我认为——我认为几年前——我认为开市客下架了可口可乐。如果你想检验的话,那是一个实实在在的考验。而——而——当然,那时候山姆会员店开始更大量地供应可乐和其他一切。而且——而且——那——可口可乐是一个相当强大的品牌。所以开市客可以决定那么做。但如果开市客决定下架你能说出名字的一堆其他品牌——或者沃尔玛决定下架它们,我是说——包装食品公司可能会比零售商感受到更大的影响。而且他们会更快地达成协议。这是一个——有趣的动态变化。而且它已经变得有点对包装食品公司不利。它们仍然是好业务——非常、非常好的业务。

WARREN BUFFETTThey're certainly— that's a factor in all of it, I think it may even extend beyond millennials to some degree. People are more-- well, they've gotten used to more change in their life generally. And-- and--and-- so I would say that the-- that there's still a huge loyalty factor. And there's-- but it is not as strong as it was five, or 10, or 20 years ago. And secondly-- there's always been a struggle between the retailer and the brands. I mean, they-- now, the-- you can't-- I mean, that's-- that's built into the American market system. And I would say that the retailers-- and-- and-- and they've-- they've always had private label b-- brands. In some other countries, private labels are much stronger than the United States, for example. And-- and the private label brands are priced below the big brands. And-- the retailer-- every time a retailer meets up with-- a packaged goods-- salesperson, they are arguing for lower prices and better deals. And I would say that their hand-- becomes stronger as the Costcos, and the-- and the Walmarts, and in other countries this other kinda-- as they become stronger-- the struggle can tilt a little bit one way or the other. I think-- I think a few years ago-- I-- I think Costco dropped Coca-Cola. And that's a real test if you want. And-- and-- and of course Sam's Club at that time started pouring it on with more Coke and everything. And-- and-- and that-- Coca-Cola's a pretty strong brand. So that Costco could decide to do that. But if Costco decided to drop a bunch of other brands-- that you could name-- they-- or Walmart decided to drop 'em, I mean-- the packaged good company might feel it more than the retailer would feel it. And they would come to terms faster. It's an-- it's an interesting dynamic. And it has gone somewhat against the packaged good companies. They're still good b-- very, very good businesses.

贝基·奎克这是——零售商和包装食品公司之间的动态关系,就是一个会来回摆动的钟摆吗?还是说这——

BECKY QUICKIs that-- the dynamic between the retailer and the packaged goods companies, is that a pendulum swing that swings back? Or is this--

沃伦·巴菲特我希望如此。

WARREN BUFFETTI hope so.

贝基·奎克还是说这是一个新的——

BECKY QUICKOr is this a new--

沃伦·巴菲特不,不一定。不,我是说,现在德国折扣店都打进来了。每家公司都有点实力。如果你一直在卖一种产品,无论是可口可乐,还是,你知道,你小时候可能吃过的某种食品之类的,我是说,你一直在用力敲打——你想要消费者,因为最终你必须赢得消费者。你必须拥有一款足够强大的产品,让零售商在某种程度上不得不进货,而且他们的自有品牌即使定价更低,也抢不走销量。如果你拿——拿亨氏番茄酱来说,想和亨氏番茄酱抢市场份额是非常、非常、非常难的。想和费城奶油奶酪抢份额也很难,但我能举出其他一些——更容易被抢走份额的产品。而——消费者在持续——消费者每天都在投票。有些东西在影响消费者,比如觉得其他东西更健康之类的。价格会影响消费者。但仅仅是零售商的普及度和实力,也能影响消费者。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, not necessarily. No, I mean you've got these German discounters coming over here now. And-- each company's got some muscle. And if you've been selling whether it's Coca-Cola, or, you know, whatever food you m-- may have eaten as a kid, or something like that, I mean, you were pounding-- you want the c-- consumer 'cause you gotta win with the consumer in the end. You've gotta have a product that's strong enough that the realer-- retailer has to c-- carry it to some degree and where their private label, even though it's priced below it, does not draw volume away. And if you take-- take Heinz Ketchup, it's very, very, very hard to take share away from Heinz Ketchup. It's hard to take share away from Philadelphia cream cheese, but I could name some other products which are-- w-- where it's easier to take-- share away. And-- the consumer is going-- the consumer votes every day. And some things are affecting the consumer like the feeling that th-- other things are healthier or something of the sort. Price affects the consumer. But just the prevalence and strength of the retailer can affect the consumer, too.

贝基·奎克这就是为什么一些包装食品公司面临那么大的压力要变得更大、要做新交易吗?比如我——我把很多产品打包在一起,然后如果零售商想用他们的自有品牌来排挤我,我就有更大的筹码去抗衡?

BECKY QUICKIs that why there's so much pressure for some of these packaged goods companies to get bigger, for-- new deals to come in? Like-- I'm gonna take and wrap up with a lot of products, and then I have more heft against the retailers if they try and turn me around with their friends?

沃伦·巴菲特你——你并不会——如果——如果——如果可口可乐去收购——他们拥有——拥有——世界上最庞大的分销系统。所以他们可以——他们能通过它来推送饮品。我不知道他们能不能通过他们的——分销系统来推销麦乳之类的东西——某些东西。显然,一套强大的分销系统——价值巨大。而且——就像我说的,可口可乐就有一套了不起的分销系统。顺便提一句,可口可乐——他们现在多卖了约 5% 的饮品。他们在全球范围内,按人均算,每年卖出 100 盎司饮品。全球 70 亿人都在喝他们的可口可乐产品。他们正以每年 100 盎司的速度在喝。这十分可观。还有大量的盎司有待发掘。但是——他们确实卖出了比以往任何时候都多的饮品盎司数——他们现在有了更多的品牌——但销量在逐年增长。而且仍在增长。詹姆斯·昆西(James Quincey)在这方面的表现极其出色。第一季度已经有所体现。但——但——如果你拥有的是一个在市场上有点失宠之类的品牌,想获得货架空间就很难。而——零售商只会进能卖得动的货。有时这涉及到价格。你——你想要的是一个零售商不得不进货的产品。

WARREN BUFFETTYou don't-- you don't get-- if-- if-- if Coca-Cola were to buy-- they've got the-- the-- the world's greatest distribution system. So they can-- they can push liquids through that. I don't know whether they could push cream of wheat, you know, or some things through their-- their distribution system. Obviously, a great distribution system is-- is worth an enormous amount. And-- and like I say, Coca-Cola has a great one. Coca-Cola incidentally, you know-- they're selling 5% more liquids. They are selling 100 ounces of liquids per capita in the whole world. 7 billion people are drinking their Coca-Cola product. And they're drinking that at the rate of 100 ounces a year. That's substantial. Leaves a lotta ounces to go. But-- but they are selling more ounces of liquid-- they've got more-- but they've got more brands now. But they are selling than they've ever sold. And it-- it grows year by year. And it's growing. And James Quincey is doing a sensational job on that. And first quarter even showed it. But-- but the-- if you've got a brand that's kind of lost out there or something of the sort, it's hard to get shelf space. And-- the retailer is going to stock what will move. And sometimes that involves price. And what you-- what you want to have is a product the retailer has to have.

贝基·奎克这个周末有很多话题引起了争议,占据了大量头条——包括您和查理,还有埃隆·马斯克之间的一些来回交锋。我们稍后马上就谈那个话题,但我想我们需要先进一段广告。所以乔、安德鲁,我们把现场信号交回演播室。我们马上会有更多相关报道。

BECKY QUICKThere are a lot of subjects that-- that drew some controversy and got a lotta headlines from this weekend-- including some back and forth-- between you, and Charlie, and then Elon Musk. And we're gonna talk about that in just a moment, but I-- I think we need to take a break. So Joe and Andrew, we will send it back to you in the studio. And we'll have more on that coming up in just a moment.

乔·科南谢谢——贝基。你手边也有《华尔街日报》吗,贝基?有吗?他们——

JOE KERNENThanks-- Becky. You got a Wall Street Journal out there, too, Beck? You got one? They –

贝基·奎克就在这儿。你想让我看哪篇?

BECKY QUICKRight here. What do you want me to look at?

乔·科南我想让沃伦——他可能已经看过这篇尼尔·弗格森的文章了,因为它呼应了沃伦之前谈到这次美中摩擦时说的一些话。这次摩擦——

JOE KERNENI want Warren to-- he may have already seen this Neil Ferguson-- piece 'cause-- it echoes some of the stuff that-- Warren was saying about this-- this China skirmish that--

贝基·奎克在这儿。

BECKY QUICKHere it is.

乔·科南——我们正在经历的。非常有意思。

JOE KERNEN--that we're having. Very interesting.

贝基·奎克好的。我现在就递给他,乔,这样他就能看一看。在评论版上。他会读一下——

BECKY QUICKAll right. I'm giving it to him right now, Joe, so he can take a look at it. It's in the op-ed page. He'll read up on it--

乔·科南太好了。

JOE KERNENExcellent.

贝基·奎克——然后做好准备。

BECKY QUICK--and be prepared.

乔·科南太好了。因为——巴菲特先生,我认为他们觉得,在“中美国”这个概念出现之后,我们之间的关系发生了变化,情况也变了。你知道,中国做得不错。他们需要面对现实世界。也许我们这样做并没有错。这就是这篇文章的要旨。不管怎样,我想——

JOE KERNENExcellent. 'Cause-- like-- like-- Mr. Buffett, I-- I think they think that it's something that because of the changing relationship we have-- and things have changed-- since—"Chi-merica" actually came about. And, you know, China's done well. And they need to come into the-- the real world. And maybe we're not wrong to be doin' it this way. That's the thrust of the piece. Anyway-- I would like--

贝基·奎克这也是个很好的铺垫。我们待会儿可以多聊聊这个话题。

BECKY QUICKThat's a good tease, too. We can talk more about that.

乔·科南是啊,我想听听沃伦对此的评论——或者至少是看法。广告之后,我们将继续与贝基和沃伦·巴菲特的对话。与此同时,我们先来回顾一下市场行情。上周四我们采访了凯蒂·斯托克顿。她当时说她仍然认为趋势会积极地重新确立。结果周四当天我们就跌了 400 点,远低于 24000 点。但那天收盘时上涨了 5 点。随后又是一个上涨交易日。于是突然间,我们现在比她上节目之后的最低点高了大约 700 点——趋势确实重新确立了。今早道琼斯指数期货上涨了大约 100 点。纳斯达克指数期货上涨约 45 点。我们今早还在关注油价。据报道,沙特想要油价达到 80 美元。他们希望是 80 美元。而且这次他们似乎正在得偿所愿。不过,10 年期国债收益率仍然低于 3%。我今早看的时候是 2.96%。现在是 2.959%。稍事休息后,我们将在《财经论谈》与投资传奇沃伦·巴菲特继续对话。

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JOE KERNENYeah, I'd like Warren's comments or-- or at least thoughts on that. We'll more from Becky and Warren Buffett-- on the other side of the break. In the meantime, let's get you caught up-- on the markets. We had Katie Stockton on last Thursday. And she was saying still thought the trend would reassert itself positively. And suddenly on Thursday we are down 400 points. Well below 24,000. But it closed up five that day. And then another positive session. And suddenly, we're about 700 points above-- the worst levels after she was on-- as it did reassert itself. There's the futures up 100 this morning-- just about on the Dow Jones. The NASDAQ up about 45. And we're watching oil this morning. Saudis reportedly want $80. And they'd like 80. And they seem to be getting their way-- this time around. The 10-year note, still below 3% though. 2.96 when I looked-- this morning. We'll have-- 2.959 now. And we'll have more Squawk Box-- coming up in a minute with investing legend Warren Buffett when we return.

贝基·奎克大家早上好。欢迎回到内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,我们现在正在这里与伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特一起直播,刚刚结束伯克希尔·哈撒韦的第 53 届股东大会。沃伦,再次感谢您今早抽时间参加节目。

BECKY QUICKGood morning, everybody. And welcome back to Omaha, Nebraska, where we are live with-- Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett, coming off of the 53rd annual shareholders meeting for Berkshire Hathaway. Warren, again, thank you for your time this morning.

沃伦·巴菲特很高兴来到这里。

WARREN BUFFETTGlad to be here.

贝基·奎克今早我们有很多话题想和您聊。有一个问题我一直憋着,想听听您的评论,是关于埃隆·马斯克的。这个周末的股东大会上,有人提问把埃隆·马斯克带进了对话。我忘了是谁问的。可能是某个股东。提到了护城河这个概念。竞争优势和护城河。埃隆·马斯克最近说他认为护城河很蠢。人们——

BECKY QUICKThere are so many things that we wanted to talk to you about this morning. One I've kind of been holding off, waiting to get your comments on is Elon Musk. Elon Musk was brought into the conversation this weekend at the shareholders meeting by a question. And I forget who asked it. One of the shareholders maybe. Bringing up this idea-- or maybe-- maybe it was Andrew. But somebody brought up this idea of-- of moats. Competitive advantages and moats. Elon Musk recently said that he thinks moats are stupid. People--

沃伦·巴菲特他可以把他的给我。

WARREN BUFFETTHe could give me his.

贝基·奎克——然后查理也插话了,说,是的,他说城堡护城河很蠢这一点是对的。但你们有点开玩笑地说,想看他试着进一家糖果店。他这个周末在推特上回应说:“我要开一家糖果公司,它会非常棒。我超级超级认真。我突然意识到《威利·旺卡》的情节相当混乱。好吧好吧,就算只是为了辩论,你对糖果有什么期望?加密糖果。然后我要建一条护城河,里面灌满糖果。沃伦·B 将无法抗拒投资。伯克希尔·哈撒韦的氪石。我要笑死我自己了。哈哈。”(清喉咙)

BECKY QUICKAnd-- and that became a subject where Charlie weighed in and said, yes, he's-- he's right that actual moats around castles are stupid. But you guys got into a little bit where you were joking around, saying that-- you'd like to see him try and get into a candy store. He responded this weekend with some tweets, saying, "I'm starting a candy company, and it's going to be amazing. I am super, super serious. It just occurred to me that the plot of Willy Wonka is really messed up. Okay, okay. Just for the sake of argument, what do you wish for in candy? Cryptocandy. Then I'm going to build a moat and fill it with candy. Warren B. will not be able to resist investing. Berkshire Hathaway kryptonite. I'm killin' me. L-O-L." (THROAT CLEARING)

沃伦·巴菲特嗯——

WARREN BUFFETTWell--

贝基·奎克您怎么看这一切?

BECKY QUICKWhat do you think about all of this?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果你看看过去 50 年里领先的糖果棒,我想你会发现士力架排第一。然后是 M&M 豆。有两种。他们没把花生和其他口味合在一起。但我认为它们排第二和第四。好时大概排在第三位。是啊,我没办法跟它们竞争。我不认为埃隆应该跟它们竞争。你知道?它们有护城河。你走进一家药店、一家 7-Eleven 之类的,你说:“我要一个士力架。”店主说:“哦,我有个东西——马斯克棒——比士力架便宜 10 美分。”你说:“给我士力架。”如果他不给你士力架,你就过马路去买士力架。品牌就是护城河,很明显。而且——如果你想——这个产品卖给了——数以亿计想喝可口可乐的人。如果你说:“我便宜两分钱卖给你一个东西,”或者“我有某个名人的名字在上面,”实际上,大约 15 或 20 年前,理查德·布兰森在美国尝试过维珍可乐。还有上百万人尝试过。所以——我真的没有他显然有的那种生产汽车的冲动来生产糖果。但我不——我不建议他跟士力架竞争。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, if you look at the leading candy bars, for example, for the last 50 years, I think you'll find Snickers on top. And then you've got M&M's. You've got two types. So they don't combine the peanuts with the-- the other ones. But I think they're number two and four. And, you know-- Hershey's in there at number three or something of the sort. Yeah. I can't take 'em on. I don't th-- I don't think Elon should take 'em on. You know? They have moats. When you go into-- a drug store, a 7-Eleven, or something and you say, "I would like a Snickers bar," and the owner says, "Oh, I've got something-- the Musk Bar at-- at-- at 10 cents off the Snickers bar," you say, "Give me the Snickers." And if he doesn't give you the Snickers, you go across the street and buy the Snickers. Brands-- brands are moats, I mean, obviously. And-- and-- and if you try to-- you know, this-- this-- this product is selling, you know-- to hundreds of millions of people who want Coca-Cola. And if you say, "I'll sell you something for two cents less," or, "I've got some celebrity's name on it, they actually-- Richard Branson tried Virgin Cola in the United States about 15 or 20 years ago. And a million others have been tried. So-- I don't really have the same urge to produce automobiles that he apparently has to produce candy. But I don't-- I don't suggest that he take on Snickers.

贝基·奎克您是在字面理解我的话,偏离了故事的重点,那就是您、查理和埃隆之间这场唇枪舌剑。我只是想——您认识埃隆·马斯克吗?

BECKY QUICKYou're taking me literally and stepping away from the real story here, which is kinda this war of words between you, and Charlie, And Elon. And I-- I just want-- do you even know Elon Musk?

沃伦·巴菲特我——我从来没有——我从来没有说过埃隆任何负面的话。我是说,你——你有点在引诱我这么做,但是——

WARREN BUFFETTI've-- I've never-- I've never said anything negative about Elon. I mean, you're-- you're baiting me a little bit to do it, but--

贝基·奎克我是在引诱。

BECKY QUICKI am.

沃伦·巴菲特但是——我从来没有——你知道,我——我——人们喜欢他的车之类的东西。但是——有人提到他现在在谈融资。今早有些关于这个的消息。我——我想我今早早些时候听到了。

WARREN BUFFETTBut-- but I've-- I've never-- you know, I-- I-- people like his car and everything. But-- but somebody mentioned that now he's talking about financing. Something this morning about that. I-- I-- I thought I heard that earlier.

贝基·奎克是的。实际上,沃——安德鲁刚才读了一些头条,看起来他们可能——特斯拉可能重返市场——来——来筹集一些额外的资金。我不完全确定。

BECKY QUICKYes. Well, actually, War-- Andrew just read some headlines where it looked like they may be-- Tesla may be going back to market-- to-- to pick up some additional financing. I'm not entirely sure.

沃伦·巴菲特那是——

WARREN BUFFETTThat's--

贝基·奎克我只听到那个——我只听到了标题。

BECKY QUICKAll I heard was the-- all I heard was the headline.

沃伦·巴菲特我把这叫作“反启示”。我在说——(笑声)你知道,因为就在几天前,他们还说不需要融资。但——但——你知道,他是在尝试改进产品。我为此向他致敬。美国公众会决定它能否成功。而——这不容易,对吧?所以——开发一辆新车可能比与士力架竞争要容易一些。但有些产品拥有极强的护城河。埃尔默胶水(Elmer's Glue)大概就是。还有,你知道,WD-40。就是这样。有些东西你就是不太会不满意,也懒得去找替代品——而且我要说——顺便提一句,iPhone——你知道,拥有一道极强的护城河。我是说,用 iPhone 的人——或许也用过别的手机,但他们——他们想继续用自己手里这款产品。他们——他们想要新版本。现在对他们来说省事多了,因为他们已经学会怎么操作,生活也围绕它构建起来了,诸如此类。护城河非常有用。好市多(Costco)在人们心目中就有护城河。我是说——亚马逊可以把 Prime 会员费提价 20%,你要没在亚马逊 Prime 的形象里建立起一些基于现实的东西——让你觉得物超所值,让你愿意继续用——就做不到这一点。有了这些,你才能提价 20 美元。但如果你卖的是——你知道,如果你卖的是某种大宗商品类产品,你就做不到。你需要护城河。

WARREN BUFFETTThat's what I call a counter-revelation. I'm talking-- (LAUGH) you know, because I think it was just a few days ago they said they wouldn't need financing. It-- it-- but, you know, he's-- he's trying something to improve a product. And I-- I salute him for that. And the American public will decide whether it's a success. And-- and-- and it's not easy. You know? So-- it's probably easier to develop a new car than it is to compete with Snickers. But some products have terrific moats. Probably Elmer's Glue does. You know, WD-40. I mean, there you go. You can-- there's just certain things that you are not in-- much inclined to be dissatisfied with and seek-- and I would say that-- incidentally that the the iPhone-- you know, has a terrific moat. I mean, people that have an iPhone-- or maybe have some other phone. But they-- they want to continue with the product that they've got. They-- they want-- they want the new version. It's just easier for 'em now that they've have learned how to do everything, and their life's built around it, and all of that. And moats are very useful. Costco has a moat in people's mind. I mean-- Amazon can raise the price of Prime, you know, 20%. And you can't do that unless you've built something within that image of the Amazon Prime that's based on reality that you're going to get a lot for your money and you're gonna wanna use it. And then you can raise prices $20. But if you're selling-- you know, if you're selling some commodity prod-- product, you can't do that. You need a moat.

贝基·奎克你提到了亚马逊。那我们来聊聊这个。因为你周末确实说过,亚马逊是你没买但希望当初买过的股票之一。你最终会买亚马逊的股票吗?

BECKY QUICKYou mentioned Amazon. So let's talk about that. Because you did say over the weekend that Amazon is one of the shares that you haven't bought that you wished you had. Are you ever going to buy shares of Amazon?

沃伦·巴菲特恐怕很难。大概因为当初没买,我心里有太多疙瘩,所以现在很难再去买它。我——我一直都——第一次见到杰夫·贝索斯,我就知道这个人是非凡之辈。而且他至今还会把 1997 年的年报附在现在的年报里,那份年报当时我就读过。他不仅才华横溢,而且思路极其清晰。然后——他连接——我是说,这一切远超我最疯狂的想象。我的意思是,如果当初我真能想象到——如果真的意识到这些都能做到,我当时就该买了。我知道他会把自己任何想法都做到极致,但我完全没——没想到它有这么大的潜力。我搞砸了。

WARREN BUFFETTIt-- it-- it'll probably be tough. I've probably got so many psychological problems with the fact that I didn't do it that it's very hard to do it. I-- I always-- when I first met Jeff, I-- I knew he was an incredible-- person. And-- and he still encloses his 1997 annual report, which I read at the time, with his current annual report. And he's an extraordinarily clear thinker as well as being a brilliant thinker. And-- and-- and then he-- he connects-- I mean, it-- it's far surpassed anything I would have dreamt could have been done. I mean, 'cause if I had dream it-- if I had really felt it could have been done, I should have bought it then. It-- I knew he would do the most with whatever idea he had. I had no idea-- idea that it had this potential. I blew it.

贝基·奎克你周末提到的另一只股票,说你早就该看出来的——是谷歌,Alphabet,也就是谷歌的母公司,因为你知道从 GEICO 的角度他们能从你这里收多少钱——你周末提到的另一只股票,说你早就该看出来的——是谷歌,Alphabet,也就是谷歌的母公司。

BECKY QUICKAnother stock that you mentioned over the weekend, saying you-- you should have known it early on-- w-- was Google, Alphabet, the parent companies of Google, because you knew how much they could charge you when it came to GEICO-- Another stock that you mentioned over the weekend, saying you should have known it early on was Google, Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

贝基·奎克因为你知道从 GEICO 的角度他们能从你那里收多少钱。

BECKY QUICKBecause you knew how much they could charge you when it came to GEICO.

沃伦·巴菲特对,我们当时在 GEICO,每点击一次就得付给他们 10 美元。你看看——10 美元啊,10 美元。而且销售成本为零。我是说,它确实给我们带来了效果,所以我们才愿意付这个钱。所以我亲眼见过这款产品的效果,也知道它那种利润率。我一直说,能找到一种成本一美分、卖一美元、又让人形成习惯的东西,那就太棒了。这玩意儿几乎零成本,而且还非常有用。我是说,你要是通过谷歌搜索 GEICO 汽车保险,说明你对车险有需求。这是一种非常精准的触达用户的方式。所以当时我心里的关键问题——在桥牌网站上玩牌之前这些我全都见过——是我不确定会不会有更多新入局者。我对技术的了解不足以判断,它是否就是那个能终结竞争赛局的角色。但我当初也本该买谷歌的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, here we were at GEICO, paying them 10 bucks or something for every click. I mean, you – 10 bucks. 10 bucks. And no cost to goods sold. I mean, and it produced results for us. That's why we paid them the money. So I had seen the product work. And I knew the kind of margins. I mean, I always said it's great to find something that costs a penny, and sells for a dollar, and is habit forming. This doesn't cost anything. And it's very useful. I mean, if you're looking up auto insurance on GEICO, you know, you've got an interest in auto insurance. I mean, it's a very directed way of talking to people. So the real question in my mind, I'd seen all of this to before I used to play bridge on all of this. And what I didn't know was whether there'd be more entrants. I didn't know enough about technology to know whether this really was the one that would stop the competitive race and all that. But I should have gotten Google, too.

贝基·奎克你说硅谷和那里发生的很多事都不在你的能力圈内。但你毕竟见多识广,目睹过许多事情如何演变,尤其是在华盛顿如何施加影响这一块。苹果股价今年早些时候下跌,部分原因是 iPhone,但可能也是因为 FANG 股票整体承压,毕竟 Facebook 惹了麻烦,监管机构有可能介入这个领域。你对这些监管议题、隐私议题有什么总体看法,或者你考虑过这些吗?

BECKY QUICKYou say that Silicon Valley and a lot of the things that happen there is not really your field of expertise. But you've been around, and you've seen how a lot of things happen. Particularly with how Washington can have an impact. The reason shares of Apple were down earlier this year was in part because of the iPhone, but probably also in part because the FANG stocks overall were under pressure because of Facebook, the trouble it got into, the potential for regulators coming into this arena. What do you think broadly about some of these regulatory issues, some of these privacy issues or do you even consider it?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我确实考虑过。但基本上,我喜欢那些不会持久的坏消息——或者说不会持久的坏消息。我正要说这算其中一类。但我是说,负面头条吓不到我。想当初我买了那只股票,是在珍珠港事件之后两三个月,我知道未来很长时间都会是负面新闻。所以我并不担心——我们在出现某些短暂坏消息的时候赚得最多。我是说,长期来看是这样。当然,你得判断清楚那是不是永久性的或类似情况。可如果人们过度担心(你知道)人们口味变了,喝东西的习惯变了,他们总会喝下 64 盎司的什么饮料。碳酸软饮料失去了市场份额。它们曾连续增长了很多很多年,几乎好像会永远增长下去。但后来——但坏消息吓不倒我。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, no, I think about that. But basically I like good news that isn't – or bad news that isn't going to last. And I'm saying that is one of them. But, I mean, bad headlines don't bother me. I mean, I had bad headlines when I bought that stock right after two or three months after Pearl Harbor and knew it was going to have bad headlines for a long time. So, I am not worried about – we've made the most money when there's been some temporary bad news. I mean, over time. Now, you got to be sure it isn't permanent or something of the sort. But if people get excessively worried about, you know, people changing their tastes and what they drink, they're going to drink 64 ounces of something or other. And carbonated soft drinks have lost share. They gained share just steadily for I don't know how many years, practically forever. But then – but bad news does not scare me.

贝基·奎克不过说得更确切一点:围绕 FANG 股票的监管问题,你认为只是暂时的新闻标题,也许有些小题大做?还是说你也不确定?

BECKY QUICKJust to put a finer point on that though, the regulatory issues concerning the FANG stocks, you think that's just a temporary headline where maybe there's much ado about nothing here? Or are you not sure?

沃伦·巴菲特哪方面的监管问题?

WARREN BUFFETTThe regulatory issues on which?

贝基·奎克关于 Facebook 的。

BECKY QUICKOn Facebook.

沃伦·巴菲特哦,不。我觉得那——不,那很重要,那很重要。你看——《60 分钟》做了两期不同节目。一期在 10 月 8 日,几周前又有一期,那期展示了一个影响——嗯,就是那个人说 Facebook 帮特朗普赢得了大选。就是那个在圣安东尼奥负责上一届大选行动、现在又被任命为他们 2020 年委员会负责人的家伙。那期节目非常有意思。我是说,他们真的知道怎么精准定向全国几乎每一个人,推送那些直接打动他们的内容。这不仅可以影响他们,鼓励支持者出来投票,也可以压制投票。而且——Facebook 被安插——那个家伙用了“安插”这个词。所以这是一个极其重要的问题。我认为国会也许才刚刚触及其皮毛。

WARREN BUFFETTOh no. I think that's – no, that's important. That's important. I mean, if you – 60 Minutes had two different ones. They had one back on October 8th. And then they had one a couple weeks ago that illustrated the effect of – well, the fellow said Facebook won the election for Trump. The fellow who managed their operation in the last election out of San Antonio, and has been appointed the head of their committee for 2020. And he – it's a very interesting episode. I mean, they really knew how to target everybody in the country basically with things that would appeal directly to them. And that could not only affect them in encouraging the followers to come bring out the vote, but it could suppress votes. And, I mean, they had – Facebook embedded – the fellow used the term embedded there. I mean, so it's a very, very important issue. And I think probably Congress has just begun to scratch the surface of it.

贝基·奎克特朗普竞选团队的做法,与四年前奥巴马竞选团队的做法有什么不同?当时他们也在用 Facebook,并且因为把这些东西玩通了,一度被看成技术奇才。

BECKY QUICKWhat's different with what the Trump campaign did than what the Obama campaign did four years earlier where they were using Facebook and were kind of seen as, like, these technology wizards for figuring it out?

沃伦·巴菲特对。嗯,他们迈出了第一步。然后——我不怪任何人这样做。但我猜他们认为,自己在 2016 年民主党竞选中做得和共和党人一样好。但共和党人在技术上——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, they took a first step. And then – I don't blame anybody for doing it. And but my guess is they thought they were doing it as well in the Democratic campaign in 2016 as the Republicans were. But the Republicans were technologically—

贝基·奎克更先进。对。

BECKY QUICKAdvanced. Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特对。对。而奥巴马在 2012 年是很先进的。我是说,诀窍在于说服人。但诀窍也在于让你的支持者出来投票。而那个诀窍——不,那个诀窍,确实相当棘手,而且非常反民主——就是压制对方的投票。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Yeah. And Obama was advanced for 2012. I mean, the trick is to convince people. But the trick also is to get your vote out. And then the trick which is not – which is really tricky and is very counter-democratic is to suppress the other guy's vote.

贝基·奎克你认为这类事情会引起监管机构的注意,还是会促使国会更多关注?

BECKY QUICKAnd you think that's the type of thing that will get regulators' attention or it will make Congress pay more attention?

沃伦·巴菲特哦,隐私方面的很多问题都会引起注意。你知道,我——有人冒充我,你知道。

WARREN BUFFETTOh, a lot of things in privacy will get it. You know, I am – people impersonate me, you know.

贝基·奎克对,乔模仿得可像了。

BECKY QUICKYeah, Joe does it very well.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,但他是对你们这种非常精明的观众在模仿。可是,如果有谁在某个网站上冒充我,说些本来是我会说的话,我可能一下子就传遍全世界了。那不是我。不,这已经带出了许多既新又重要的问题。而我们还只是处于早期阶段。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, but he's doing it to a very sophisticated audience in your case. But if somebody impersonates me on some website and says something I say, I may even be all over the world. It isn't me. No, this has brought a lot of new issues that are important issues out. And we're just in the early stages.

贝基·奎克好的。我们接下来会再聊这些和其他很多事情。不过现在,我们把画面交回给演播室的乔和安德鲁。

BECKY QUICKOkay. We're going to talk more about this and many other things. We'll send it right now though back to Joe and Andrew in the studio.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金好的。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOkay.

贝基·奎克安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金贝基,我们一会儿就切回来找你。顺便说一下,贝基,我们还有亚历克斯·奥哈尼安的问题,得找个机会问。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINBecky, we will be coming back to you in just a little bit. We have that question from Alex Ohanian, by the way, Becky, which we're going to have to ask at some point.

贝基·奎克哦,好的。

BECKY QUICKOh, good.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金稍等一下。但我们会马上回到奥马哈,听听他们对中国以及贸易战是否即将来临的看法。别忘了,今天我们将推出沃伦·巴菲特档案库,这是全球规模最大的巴菲特谈商业、投资、金钱和人生的资料集。它收录了 25 场完整的股东大会,最早可追溯至 1994 年。每场都有精彩集锦。此外,还有 CNBC 专访、巴菲特时间轴和伯克希尔投资组合追踪器。一定要去看看,Buffett.CNBC.com,非常酷。《Squawk Box》稍后回来。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINIn just a little bit. But we will get back to them in Omaha get their thoughts on China and whether or not a trade war is on the horizon. And don't forget today we're introducing the Warren Buffett Archive, the world's largest collection of Buffett speaking about business, investing, money, and life. It includes 25 full annual meetings going back all the way back to 1994. We have a highlight reel for each. Plus, CNBC interviews, a Buffett timeline, and a Berkshire portfolio tracker. Be sure to check it out. Buffett.CNBC.com. It is very cool. "Squawk Box" returns in just a moment.

贝基·奎克大家再次早上好。我们现在在内布拉斯加州奥马哈,伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会的现场进行直播。今天早上的特邀嘉宾是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦,今天早上和整个周末我们聊了很多事情。其中一个话题就是经济。我知道你上周跟我们提过一点,感觉情况确实有所好转,势头起来了。我只是好奇,你为什么这么想。你看到了哪些数字?你在判断伯克希尔经济指数时,脑子里会过哪些东西?

BECKY QUICKGood morning again, everybody. We are live from Omaha, Nebraska, the site of the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting. Our special guest this morning is Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett. And Warren, so many things that we've talked about this morning and over the weekend. One issue is just the economy. And I know you told us last week a little bit about it, that it does feel like things have improved a little bit. Things have picked up steam. I just wonder why you think that. What numbers you see. What are the things that kind of run through your head in determining the Berkshire economic index.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。我看到的数字很多,而且拿到手很快。我的意思是,生意普遍相当强劲。比如说,你可以看铁路货车——谁都可以看铁路货车装载量,数据每周三发布。你可以按类别看,分成 22 个不同类别。我想马特·罗斯前几天可能提到过,22 个类别中有 18 个在上升,总体也在上升。货车在运货,是因为人们在买东西,他们在补充库存。你看到这些,也会看到与此相关的一些通胀。在一些建筑材料上能看到。我们在电子元件上看得尤其明显。我们有一项业务——大多数人可能根本不知道——叫 TTI。它经营着近一百万个不同种类的电子产品。我的意思是,你可以从我们这里订购这一百万个品种中的任何一个。它们非常小。但人们买它们是因为在用。而且,我们这项业务在满足订单方面相当吃力。这种情况已经持续走强了一整年,直到我们此刻说话的当下。所以,我们在绝大多数领域都看到了相当不错的生意。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I see a lot of numbers. And I get them pretty fast. I mean, and business is generally pretty strong. I mean, you could look at railroad car – anybody can look at railroad car loadings, for example every week. They come out on Wednesday. And you can see them by category. 22 different categories. And I think Matt Rose may have mentioned the other day that 18 of the 22 are up and overall they're up. And they're carrying stuff because people are buying stuff. They're adding inventory. And you see it and you're seeing some inflation connect with some of this. But you see it in some building materials. We've seen it particularly in electronic components. We have an operation – most people probably don't even know anything about called TTI. And it carries close to a million different types of electronics. I mean, you can order any one of a million items from us. They're very small. But people buy them because they're using them. And, you know, we have a hard time filling orders in that business. And that's kept getting stronger now for a year right up to what we're talking here. So we're seeing pretty good business most places.

贝基·奎克周五的就业数据让一些人猜测,失业率已经没法再低多少了,很难找到人来填补那些空缺的职位。你有这种感受吗?

BECKY QUICKThe jobs number on Friday had some people speculating that we can't get much lower in terms of an unemployment rate. That it's hard to find bodies to fill the jobs that are opening. Do you experience that?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这绝对是真的。我的意思是,我们有很多职位。我们有——如果你想当地毯安装工,你可以赚很好的钱,因为懂怎么安装地毯的人短缺。我们可以教你做。需要一点时间。但那是一个非常好的工作。我们的住宅建筑商——你在别处也读到过——除了有预制住宅业务,我们还有所谓的现场施工业务。我们在丹佛、德克萨斯州的奥斯汀等地都有业务。我们在某些建筑行业很难招到人。而且,我们实际上在丹佛资助了一所学校——可能还有其他参与者——就是为了教人那些能让他们一年赚 5 万到 6 万美元的工作。没错,某些领域就业是紧张的。毫无疑问。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that's absolutely true. I mean, we have a lot of jobs. We have – if you want to be a carpet installer, you can make very good money because there's a shortage of people that know how to install carpet. And we can teach you to do it. It takes a little while. But that's a very good job. And our home builders— and you've read about this elsewhere – but we have, in addition to having a manufactured housing operation, we have a site build operation as they call them. And we're in Denver, and Austin, Texas. Various places. And we have a hard time getting people for certain of the construction trades. And, again, we're actually funding a school in Denver – we probably have other participants doing it – just to teach people jobs that can pay them 50 or $60,000 a year. And no, there's – employment is tight in some areas. There's no question about it.

贝基·奎克那你们怎么做?最后是不是得支付超过 5 万或 6 万美元的年薪?我只是想搞明白通胀是怎么开始的。

BECKY QUICKWhat do you do? Do you end up having to pay more than 50 or $60,000 a year? I'm just trying to find out how inflation gets started.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,市场体系归根结底,只要一种资源稀缺——无论是人力还是其他——只要资源稀缺,价格就会上涨。很可能——我们现在就看到某些领域的价格在上涨,而且近几个月来,对这些价格上涨的阻力也在减弱。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, the market system in the end, if a resource is scare – whether it's human or otherwise – if a resource is scare, the price will go up. And probably – we are seeing prices moving now in some areas and less resistance to those prices in recent months.

贝基·奎克哪些——

BECKY QUICKWhich—

沃伦·巴菲特这不像二战时期那种物资极度匮乏的大爆发,或类似的情况。

WARREN BUFFETTThis is not an explosion of World War II scarcity or anything like that.

贝基·奎克不,不是,但我——

BECKY QUICKNo. No, but I—

沃伦·巴菲特但方向肯定是朝那边走的,贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTBut it's definitely going in that direction, Becky.

贝基·奎克然后你就会琢磨,这会把我们带到什么地步,通胀到什么程度美联储会开始察觉,并可能出手应对。有很多人都在试图弄清楚这一点。

BECKY QUICKAnd then you wonder where that gets us in terms of inflation that the Fed would start to see and potentially act against. And there are so many people who are trying to figure that out.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。我不知道——我看到了所有这些数字,但我买东西时的决策从来没有因此有过丝毫改变。在我记忆中,我这辈子从来没有因为一条头条新闻、一篇社论观点,甚至我们看到的事实,而改变过任何一项活动。我了解这些信息,也喜欢掌握它们。但接下来会是不同的一年——一年后或五年后,我们依然会持有这家公司。我可以告诉你,反过来想,如果你是政策中心顾问或美联储理事会成员,我就会——我对这些数字就负有责任了。在某种程度上,我得试图引导它们。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And I don't – I see all these figures, and I don't change one thing I ever do in terms of buying something. I've never changed an activity based on a headline in my life that I can remember, or an editorial opinion, or even the facts we get. I'm aware of them. And I like to know them. But it's going to be a different news year – we're going to own the company a year from now or five years from now. But I can tell you, I mean, if you're a policy center adviser or a member of the Fed board, I would be – I've got a responsibility then in terms of these figures. And I'm trying to steer them to some degree.

贝基·奎克但这可能没有影响或改变你是否收购一家企业的决定。不过,它确实会影响你的估值和预期,比如在比较股票和债券,或者股票和其他资产的时候。你在这个节目里跟我们说过,通胀对股票估值是一种拖累。而当利率这么低的时候——

BECKY QUICKBut it may not have affected or impacted a decision on whether or not you were going to by a business. But it does impact your valuation, expectations in terms of looking at stocks versus bonds or stocks versus something else. You've told us on this program that inflation acts as a weight on stock valuations. And when interest rates are so low –

沃伦·巴菲特随着时间的推移,通胀应该会推高利率。

WARREN BUFFETTIt should push up interest rates over time.

贝基·奎克没错。

BECKY QUICKRight.

沃伦·巴菲特设定一个 2% 的目标,嘴上说说很容易。但要防止它偏离又是另一回事——一旦它开始往某个方向走,我们并不知道政策会多有效。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd it's very easy to talk about having a 2% goal. But it's another thing to keep it from going – once it starts in either direction, we don't know how well that'll work.

贝基·奎克我们来聊聊乔刚才提到的一个话题——中国和贸易。不只是和中国,还有墨西哥——

BECKY QUICKLet's talk about something that Joe alluded to earlier. And-that's China and Trade. Not just with China. With Mexico--

沃伦·巴菲特对,整个世界。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the world.

贝基·奎克——涉及北美自由贸易协定和其他正在发生的事情。我们的代表团这个周末刚从中国回来,就是财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦、威尔伯·罗斯、莱特希泽,他们全回来了。现在我们只能等着看。我们得搞清楚,特朗普的强硬言论是会开始带来红利、改善贸易关系,还是会把我们推向另一个方向,甚至卷入一场贸易战。你觉得会发生什么?顺便提一句,这是总统发的一条推文,我记得是周五晚上发的:“我们的高级别代表团正从中国返回,他们与中国领导人和商界代表进行了长时间的会谈。我们明天将开会评估结果,但中国很难办,因为他们已经被美国在贸易上的胜利惯坏了。”

BECKY QUICK--with NAFTA, other things that are happening. But our delegation just returned from China over this weekend. This is Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, Wilbur Ross, Lighthizer. All of them-- coming back. And now we have to wait and see. We have to-- figure out if Trump's tough talk will start paying dividends-- and improved trade relations or if it-- pushes us the other direction and leads us potentially into a trade war. What do-- you think happens? By the way, here's a tweet from the president. I believe this was Friday night. "Our high-level delegation is on the way back from China, where they had long meetings with Chinese leaders and business representatives. We will be meeting tomorrow to determine the results, but it's hard for China in that they have become very spoiled with U.S. trade wins."

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。嗯,答案是,我认为我们不会发生大规模贸易战。会有贸易摩擦。但就那种不断升级的、老式思维里的贸易战而言——我不认为会发生。那不符合我们的利益。不符合中国的利益。不符合世界上每个国家的利益。我的意思是,世界靠贸易繁荣。没有大量贸易,我们不会有现在的经济,中国不会有,世界其他地方也不会有现在的经济福祉。顺便提一下,1970 年,我们的进出口额完全一样。都是 GDP 的 5% 左右。所以我们的出口增长到了 GDP 的 11% 多一点,现在这是一个巨大的数字。我的意思是——但进口方面——大概有 3 个百分点的差距。总有人想占便宜之类的事情。但最终——中国和美国在非常重大的事情上有共同利益。然后我们在一些边缘问题上有——不那么共同的利益。我们会——随着时间的推移,世界不会在贸易上做蠢事。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, the answer is I don't think we will have trade wars because-- of significance. We will have trade movements. But--in terms of the old fashioned thought of a trade war where-- you just keep piling it on-- I don't think that happens. It's counter to the interests of us. It's counters to the interests of China. It's counter to the interest of every country in the world. I mean, the world thrives on trade. We would not have the economy, nor would China, nor would the rest of the world have the economic wellbeing that they have without a lot of trade. And incidentally in 1970, we exported and imported exactly the same amount. It was about 5% of GDP. So our exports have grown to 11 and a fraction percent of GDP, which is a huge number now. I mean-- but the imports have-- there's about a three-point gap or thereabouts. And-- there will always be people trying to get edges and all of that sort of thing. But in the end-- China and the United States have a common interest in something very big. And then we have-- a less-than-common interest in some things around the edges. It-- we will-- the world will not do something stupid over time in trade.

贝基·奎克乔,你想插两句吗?我知道这是你一直密切关注的议题。

BECKY QUICKJoe, did you want to jump in here? I know this is-- an issue you've been following very closely.

乔·科南我就简单说几句。我是说,而且我想沃伦可能读过那篇文章。但令人感慨的是,当初这种中美之间的联盟——或者随便你管它叫什么——在 2001 年启动时,完全是另一个世界。中国当时确实是在提供廉价劳动力和廉价商品,我们则从低通胀中受益,这让我们的利率得以保持低位。但那篇文章,尼尔·弗格森的那篇点出了,中国已不再是一个新兴市场。他们在经济体、消费者和方方面面都越来越像我们。在这个节点上,贸易逆差必须下降,这样才合理。这种事又不是说——你知道,美国如今提出这个要求并非不现实。中国对此不应该感到震惊——而且或许应该做出一些让步。沃伦,上周——我们来回争论不下。我们说中国损失更大。中国说我们损失更大。我们就这么在那种辞令里争来争去。但一个简单的事实是,我认为当前中国大约 4% 的出口流向美国,而我们只有不到 1% 的出口流向中国。所以——我的意思是,我们对他们的影响力,要远大于他们对我们的影响力。要求他们降低贸易逆差并不过分,即便大多数经济学家会说“你不该那样看问题”。但我的意思是,在双边贸易中,这样才公平。

JOE KERNENIt just-- I would just a little. I mean, the and I think Warren probably read this piece. But it is amazing when this alliance or whatever you want to call it between China and the United States started back in 2001, it was a different world. And-- China really was supplying cheap labor and cheap goods. And we were benefiting from that with low inflation. It kept our interest rates low. But the article, the Neil Ferguson article, points out China, no longer an emerging market. And they're looking more and more like us in terms of their economy, and consumers, and everything else. And-- at this point, it only makes sense that the trade deficit has to come down. And that's something that's not-- you know, it-- it's not unrealistic for the United States to be asking for that at this point. And China shouldn't be shocked that-- the-- and should probably make some concession. Warren, last week-- we went back and forth. We said China has more to lose. China said we have more to lose. And we went back and forth with that rhetoric. But the simple fact remains I think right now 4% of China's-- exports go to the United States. Less than 1% of our exports go to China. So-- I mean, we can affect them much more significantly than they can affect us. And it's not too much to ask for them for the trade defect to go down even though most economists say, "You shouldn't look at it that way." But, I mean, it's only fair in bilateral trade.

沃伦·巴菲特我想是 2003 年,乔,我当时确实为《财富》杂志写了一篇关于贸易逆差的文章。那时我就担心逆差变得过大了。因为,再说一次,它当时正逼近 GDP 的 3% 左右。那篇文章完全不特定针对中国,纯粹是关于让贸易逆差越变越大到底有多大智慧的问题。因为当你处于——当你实质上从别国购买的东西多于他们从你这里购买的东西时,你就是在把投资资金交到他们手上。我的意思是,这本质就是:你给他们一些小纸片,他们能把这些小纸片转换成——他们可以买政府债券,可以在这里买大楼。而且——日本人在 1980 年代买下圆石滩的时候,他们当时就正坐拥巨额的顺差。我的意思是,究其根本,你是在交出对我们国家的索取权,来换取眼下超出国内产出的消费。所以我确实认为,贸易逆差达到某些水平会让我感到不安。我当时有一套机制,并不针对特定国家。但我认为——世界已经变得越来越好。毫无疑问,各国可能会在这件事或那件事上试图占便宜。而且我们过去自己其实有时候也犯过这种事。我不认为其他国家的领导人——无论是中国还是其他 100 个国家的领导人——会不够聪明,意识不到继续促进贸易是符合自身利益的。随着时间的推移,我们的贸易量越大越好。而我们绝不希望出现这样一种局面:我们进口的东西占到 GDP 的 20%,出口却为零。是的,我们可以马上全体不工作,给世界其他地方发小纸片,他们则继续给我们运来食物、送汽车、给我们各种东西。但最终,他们会拥有我们全部财富的索取权。所以,我们确实需要制定政策,让整体贸易逆差相对于 GDP 不至于失控。这一点我已经主张了很久很久。

WARREN BUFFETTI think it was in 2003, Joe, I wrote an article for Fortune actually about the trade deficit. I was worried about it getting too large then. Because, again, it was getting to be 3% or so of GDP. It-- wasn't specific to China at all. But it was just a question of how wise it is to let the trade deficit grow larger and larger. Because when you run-- when you are in effect buying more from other countries than they're buying from you, you are handing them investment funds. I mean, it's the nature. You give 'em little pieces of paper, and they can convert that into buying-- they can buy government bonds. They can buy buildings here. And-- Japanese bought Pebble Beach in the 1980s when they were running a big-- surplus. I mean, so you are giving up claim checks on our country essentially in exchange for having more consumption now than you're producing in this country. And so I do think that there's levels of trade deficit that bother me. I had some system that did not make it country specific. But I think-- the world has gotten better and better. And there's no question that-- that countries may try and take advantage in this or that. And-- we've actually been guilty of that sometimes in the past, too. I don't think leaders in other countries, whether China or 100 other countries, are not smart enough-- to realize that it's in the interest to keep promoting trade. The more we trade over time. And-- we don't want it to be a question of where we important 20% of our GDP and we export nothing. Now, we could all quick working, and we could hand little pieces of paper to the rest of the world, and they could keep sending us food. And they can send us autos. And they can send us all kinds of things. But eventually they have claims on all our wealth. So-- we do want to have policies where the overall trade deficit does not get out of hand in relation to GDP. And I've been arguing that for a long, long time.

贝基·奎克各位,我们现在得休息一下了。我们本打算继续播下去。比尔·盖茨和查理·芒格在整点都会加入我们。不过——查理·芒格来得早,我不想让他干坐在一旁等着。所以我们先暂停一下,好直接请他过来。我们待会儿马上继续和他们俩聊。两位估计都想揍我了,因为我临时变卦,但查理·芒格已经就坐在这里了,既然他到了,我就想让他直接上节目。好,我们现在短暂休息一下。回来之后,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的副董事长查理·芒格将加入我们。别走开,我们马上回来。大家再次早上好。欢迎回到内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,在过去将近两个小时里,我们一直和伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在一起。此刻,伯克希尔的副董事长——查理·芒格也已落座,加入我们。查理,感谢你今天能来。我真的很感激你到场。

BECKY QUICKGuys, I'm going to take a break right now. We were going to keep going. We have both Bill Gates and Charlie Munger who are going to be joining us at the top of the hour. But-- Charlie Munger's here early, and I don't want him sitting on the sideline. So we're gonna take a break so we can bring him right over. And we'll have more coming up with these two-- in just a few moments. The guys are ready to kill me because I'm calling an audible, but Charlie Munger's sitting here, and I want him on set if he's here. So-- right now, we'll take a very quick break. When we come back, we'll be joined by Charlie Munger, the vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Stick around. We'll be right back. Good morning again, everybody. And welcome back to Omaha, Nebraska where we have been live for almost the last two hours with Warren Buffett, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. We are joined right now by Berkshire's vice chairman-- Charlie Munger, who's sitting down with us and joining us. And-- Charlie, thank you so much for being with us today. I really appreciate you being here.

查理·芒格啊,我很高兴能来。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I'm delighted to be here.

贝基·奎克那我们聊聊这个。你们二位之间——

BECKY QUICKWell, let's talk about this. Between the two of you—

查理·芒格能待在任何一个地方,我都挺高兴的。

CHARLIE MUNGERI'm delighted to be anywhere.

贝基·奎克你们二位加起来,一共拥有 181 年的阅历,办这个股东大会也有 53 年了。我想请你们花一两分钟——回顾一下这些会议,看看它们这些年来是如何演变的,以及到底是什么——使得你们那么享受与彼此坐在一起。查理,你怎么想?要不你先说?

BECKY QUICKBetween the two of you, you have 181 years of experience and you've been doing this annual meeting for 53 years. I thought we could take just a minute or two-- for both of you to reflect on these meetings, how they've evolved over time and-- what it is that-- you enjoy so much about sitting with each other. Charlie, what do you think? Why don't you start?

查理·芒格嗯,那是我长大的家乡。当然,我喜欢这家公司,喜欢这些股东,喜欢这场盛会,每个人都开开心心的。我们既在庆祝一套价值观,也在庆祝我们自身。所以,我当然喜欢。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, my hometown where I was raised. And, of course, I like the company and I like the shareholders and I like the festival and everybody's having a good time. And we're celebrating values as well as ourselves. And so, of course, I like it.

贝基·奎克沃伦,在台上坐在查理身旁是一种什么感觉?

BECKY QUICKWarren, what's it like sitting next to Charlie on the stage?

沃伦·巴菲特我总能学到一些东西。而且——我肯定也屡屡会被他惊到。查理和我,我们曾在离这里不到 4 英里的同一家杂货店打工。但我们不是同时在那儿做,所以直到 20 年后才认识。但我们形成了一种极其好的伙伴关系。而且——做商业更有趣——有了一位好的个人伙伴,商业生涯就更有趣。能拥有一个绝佳的商业伙伴——你知道,这简直——我们不仅做出了更多成就,我们还获得了多得多的快乐。查理和我——这话不假,我们——在很多事情上看法都有分歧。不算多,但有一些。然而,我们自相识至今,差不多 60 年了,彼此之间从未有过一次争执。

WARREN BUFFETTI always learn something. And-- I certainly get surprised. And Charlie and I, we worked in the same grocery store less than four miles from here. We didn't work at the same time so we didn't know each other till 20 years later. But we've got an extremely good partnership. And-- business is more fun-- business life is more fun with a good personal partner. And to have great business partner-- you know, it just-- it-- we've accomplished more but we've also had way more fun. And Charlie and I-- and this is true, we've had-- we--disagree on a lotta things. Not-- that many, but some. We've never had an argument in the entire time we've known each other, which is almost 60 years now.

贝基·奎克查理为你做过哪一件事——一个决策也好,一个领域也好——关乎你的生活,你听了查理的话,结果你变得更好?

BECKY QUICKWhat's one thing that Charlie's done for you? A decision, an arena-- something about your life that-- that-- that you listened to Charlie and you're better off for it?

沃伦·巴菲特查——查理给了我一个人能给予另一个人最终极的礼物。他让我成长为一个更好的人,远超原本可能的模样。这就是你能为别人所做的最极致的事情。我——我听他的话。能让我听进话的人不多,但查理——你知道,他长期以来给了我很多好建议。我——在某种程度上我可能不太情愿接受,不过——有时候。但我的决策确实因此变得更好。我只是——我的人生的确因为查理而更美好了。

WARREN BUFFETTChar-- Charlie has given me the ultimate gift that a person could give to somebody else. He's made me a better person than I would otherwise have been. And that's the most you can do for somebody else. And-- I've listened to him. Not too many people I listen to but Charlie-- you know, he's given me a lot of good advice over time. And-- I may hate to take it to a certain degree, but-- sometimes. But my decisions have been better. But I just-- I've lived a better life because of Charlie.

贝基·奎克查理,沃伦为你做过什么事吗?

BECKY QUICKCharlie, has Warren done anything for you?

查理·芒格嗯,他说服我放弃了律师执业,结果证明这是个非常好的想法。沃伦的——这个叫伯克希尔的地方,每个人都为别人做了很多。这就是人们喜欢这里的原因。我不觉得这么多人聚到这里,仅仅是为了庆祝赚了大钱。他们是来这里庆祝,我会说,庆祝一套价值观。这就像天主教的教义问答一样。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, he talked me outta leaving a law practice, which turned out to be a very good idea. Warren's-- this is a place, Berkshire, where everybody's done a lot for everybody else. And that's why people like it. I don't think all these people would come just to celebrating making a lotta money. They're here to celebrate I'd say a set of values. It's like the Catholic catechism.

贝基·奎克怎么说?

BECKY QUICKHow so?

查理·芒格嗯,有一点,它从来不变。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it never changes, for one thing.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。而且通常掌舵的都是些老头儿。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And usually has old guys in charge.

查理·芒格而且掌舵的是一群老白人男性,毫无疑问。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd there's old, white males in charge, absolutely.

沃伦·巴菲特我们越来越看到其中的智慧了。当时查理还在做律师,但我说,“查理,当个爱好还行,但别当真。”所以。

查理·芒格:他说得对。他花了不少时间才说服我。不过我当时——我有时候学东西确实比较慢。

WARREN BUFFETTWe're seeing the wisdom of that more and more. Now, Charlie was practicing law but I said, "Charlie, it's okay as a hobby but forget it." So. CHARLIE MUNGER:H e was right. It took him a while to convince me. But I was-- I'm a slow learner sometimes.

贝基·奎克人们好奇你们两位还能做多久。查理,你 94 岁了。沃伦,你 87 岁了。但上个周末你们在台上看起来相当轻松。

BECKY QUICKPeople wonder how long you guys can keep doing this. Charlie, you're 94. Warren, you're 87. But you made it look pretty easy up there onstage this weekend.

沃伦·巴菲特这——说实话,到现在这个阶段,这事确实很容易。迟早有一天会不容易的。不过,不,我想说现在做起来和以往任何时候一样轻松。我的意思是,你没看到我去参加那场比赛(笑声)(听不清)或做其他类似的事吧。但这份工作确实不需要——不需要手眼协调,也不需要体力或其他什么。你知道,你只需要坐在桌前,运用你在六七十年前学到的那些东西,只不过它们现在可能以稍微不同的形式出现——这样或那样。但——对于想在八九十岁还继续工作的人来说,这真是一份完美的工作。

WARREN BUFFETTIt-- is easy, actually, at this point. At some point it won't be. But, no, I would say it's as easy now as ever. I mean, you didn't see me enter the race that took place (LAUGH) (UNINTEL) or anything of the sort. But this job doesn't really require-- doesn't require hand eye coordination or stamina or anything. You know, you just sit at a desk and you apply things that you learned 60 or 70 years ago and they come in a little different form now, maybe-- this way or that way. But-- it's the perfect job for somebody that wants to be working at 80 or 90.

贝基·奎克您提到多年来你们在想法上有过不同意见。你们俩能记起来的最大分歧是什么?即便没演变成争执或冲突,在什么事上——一个人认为应该做,另一个人却认为不该,或者反过来?

BECKY QUICKYou mentioned that you have had disagreements in ways of thinking over the years. What's the biggest thing that either of you can remember disagreeing on? Even though it wasn't a fight or didn't get into anything, where is-- an area where one of you thought you should do something, the other one didn't, or vice versa?

查理·芒格法国人退出的时候,我本想伯克希尔买下他们在 Costco 的股份。

CHARLIE MUNGERI wanted Berkshire to buy the French stake in Costco when the French left.

贝基·奎克那是哪一年?

BECKY QUICKWhat year was that?

查理·芒格哦,那是很久很久以前的事了。

CHARLIE MUNGEROh, that was a long time ago.

沃伦·巴菲特我当时在桥牌——我当时正在打一场桥牌锦标赛。他们居然硬是把我从比赛中叫了出来——这在桥牌锦标赛里可是非常失礼的。然后——查理说的是——他大概的意思是——那家法国公司,是一家大型零售企业,手里大约有 15% 的股份之类的。查理说:“闭上眼睛买就行了。”然后——

WARREN BUFFETTI was at a bridge-- I was playing at a bridge tournament. They actually called me outta this thing-- which is very bad etiquette at bridge tournaments. And-- Charlie is saying-- basically saying-- the French firm, big retailing firm there, had about a 15% block or something like that. Charlie said, "Shut your eyes and buy it." And--

查理·芒格他说:“我要闭上眼睛,说不行。”

CHARLIE MUNGERHe said, "I'm gonna shut my eyes and say no."

沃伦·巴菲特我本该买下来的。

WARREN BUFFETTI should've bought it.

贝基·奎克你本该买下来?

BECKY QUICKYou should've bought it?

沃伦·巴菲特一点没错。我告诉你,我实在——我几乎想不出查理建议我做的事里,有哪件是不该做的。我做的事会比查理多,但这部分是因为我人就在那儿,你知道,一天待上八小时什么的。我行动上稍微更积极一点。而查理是真心想等着那个正中好球。我是说,他想要的——他——如果在他自己的人生世界大赛最后一场里,十次上场打击轰出十支全垒打,就此收工,他会非常满意。在证券投资里就是这样——那确实是正确的做法。但我就是喜欢多一点动作。

WARREN BUFFETTAbsolutely. I'll tell ya, I can't really-- I can hardly think of anything Charlie has recommended that I do that shouldn't have been done. I would do more things than Charlie would. But that's partly 'cause I'm there, you know, eight hours a day or something. I've got a little more inclination toward action. And Charlie wants to really wait for the fat pitch. I mean, he wants-- he would-- he would be very happy hitting ten homeruns and ten homeruns at bat in the final game of the World Series of his life and just have that be it. It in securities. And--that's the right way to proceed. But I like a little more action.

贝基·奎克好了,亿万富翁们陆续到场了。比尔·盖茨来了。我们稍后将带来更多伯克希尔峰会的消息。

BECKY QUICKAll right, the billionaires keep showing up. Bill Gates is here. We're gonna have more from this Berkshire summit in just a moment.

乔·科南欢迎回到《财经论谈》,我们在 CNBC 现场直播,地点是时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场。我是乔·科南,旁边是安德鲁·罗斯·索金,贝基在奥马哈。接下来一小时很精彩——奥马哈的亿万富翁峰会。伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格和微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨,将与贝基一起,和沃伦·巴菲特现场连线。马上开始。但先快速看一下市场。道琼斯指数一直在三位数附近徘徊,要么略高,要么略低,现在大约上涨 92 点,标普 500 指数上涨约 10 点。纳斯达克指数显示上涨 41 点。十年期国债收益率连续几个交易日在 3% 以下,现在是 2.96%,2.95%。还有——我不知道我们是不是觉得可以,把三个人的身家加起来,然后说这就是——嗯,那不是重点,对吧,安德鲁?真的吗?

JOE KERNENWelcome back-- to Squawk Box here on CNBC live from-- the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernen along with Andrew Ross Sorkin and Becky is in Omaha. Big hour coming up. A billionaire summit-- in Omaha. Berkshire Hathaway vice chair Charlie Munger and Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates-- will join Becky alongside Warren Buffett live. That's-- coming up in just a moment. First though, a quick check-- on the markets. We've been right around triple digits on the Dow, either just above or just below, now up about 92 on the Dow, up about-- ten on the S&P 500. And the NASDAQ-- indicated up 41 points. The ten year has been under 3% for a few sessions now, 2.96%, 2.95%-- at this point. And-- I don't know if we-- think it's okay to, like, add up three guys, how much they're worth and say that's how-- yeah, that's not what it's about is it, Andrew? Really?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金跟钱没关系。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINIt's not about money.

乔·科南那么,你——如果——我早上起床的时候,还是一只裤腿一条腿地穿——如果我错了,你可以纠正我——

JOE KERNENNow, do you-- if-- correct me if-- when you get up in the morning, do you put on - I still put on one pants leg at a time--

安德鲁·罗斯·索金一条裤腿——

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOne pant--

乔·科南——你呢?

JOE KERNEN--you?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金——一次一条腿。

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN--leg at a time.

乔·科南你能问一下那些人吗——

JOE KERNENCan you ask those guys--

安德鲁·罗斯·索金而且——这些人也——

ANDREW ROSS SORKINAnd-- these guys do--

乔·科南贝基——对,问清楚——

JOE KERNENBecky-- yeah, find out--

安德鲁·罗斯·索金他们也这么穿。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINThey do.

乔·科南我不知道。也许他们不这么穿。也许他们能爬上梯子跳进去——

JOE KERNENI don't know. Maybe they don't. Maybe they're able to get on a ladder and jump in--

安德鲁·罗斯·索金我向你保证,他们也这么穿。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINI assure you, they do.

乔·科南他们也是?

JOE KERNENThey do?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金我们把镜头切回贝基,她今天早上在奥马哈,现在有三位非常特别的嘉宾。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINWe're goin' to get back to Becky, who is in Omaha this morning and she has three now very special guests.

乔·科南六条裤腿——

JOE KERNENSix pant legs--

安德鲁·罗斯·索金贝基。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINBecky.

乔·科南六条腿。

JOE KERNENSix legs.

贝基·奎克不,不,我猜他们穿裤子的方式跟你一样,乔。但我还是更愿意听他们的意见,而不是你的。我们来开始今天的亿万富翁峰会吧。现在加入我们的是比尔·盖茨,他是微软的联合创始人,也是伯克希尔的董事会成员。查理·芒格是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的副董事长,今天早上还有沃伦·巴菲特,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官,仍然和我们在一起。各位先生,欢迎。感谢你们今天早上来到这里。

BECKY QUICKNo, no, my guess is they put their pants on the same way you do, Joe. But I'd still rather hear their opinion than yours. Let's get to our billionaire summit this morning. Joining us right now is Bill Gates. He is the cofounder of Microsoft. He's also a Berkshire board member. Charlie Munger is the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and still with us this morning, Warren Buffett, who's the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. And gentlemen, welcome. Thank you all for being here this morning.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢邀请。

WARREN BUFFETTThanks for havin' us.

贝基·奎克我一直在想,怎么和你们三个人展开对话。这不简单。你们三位都是思想卓越的人,可能有点让人紧张。但我回想过去这些年我们一起坐下聊天的时刻。你们在很多方面非常相似。你们都是分析型思考者,逻辑思维很强。你们都是如饥似渴的读者。你们都是把知识当作终极追求的人,想弄清楚世界是如何运转的。但我觉得,你们成为朋友的部分原因,不仅仅是共同点,还在于有时候你们在这些事情上有不同看法。你们可能喜欢在一些问题上互相挑战。我想,今天早上我们可以挖掘出一些这样的问题,那些你们看法不完全一致的地方。你们可能在某些领域有更细微的见解。所以,我今天早上就抛出几个话题,看看你们在哪里一致,在哪里有分歧。先从市场开始吧,因为今天早上 6 点(东部时间,我得指出)我们和沃伦聊的就是这个。就是现在市场的位置。估值合理吗?昂贵吗?找到喜欢的东西难吗?比尔,既然你刚坐下来,不如你先来。沃伦指出,在他看来,很多出现的私人交易看起来很贵。市场上很难找到便宜货。你也是个大投资者。你看今天的市场,怎么看?

BECKY QUICKI was tryin' to figure out how to get into these conversations with the three of you. And it's-- it's always difficult. The three of you are brilliant thinkers. It can be a little intimidating. But I was thinking back over the years of the times that we've sat down. And you are all very similar-- in a lotta ways. You're analytical thinkers, you're logical thinkers. You're voracious readers. And you're-- all people who think knowledge is the ultimate quest. You wanna figure out how the world works. But it occurs to me that part of the reason that you're friends is not just because of what you share in common, but that sometimes you have differing opinions on these things. And you probably like to challenge each other on some of these issues. And I thought maybe we could tease out some of those issues this morning, where you may not see eye to eye exactly on things. You may have more nuanced views on areas. So I'm just gonna throw up some areas this morning and see where you all agree and see where you all differ. And so I'll start with the idea of the markets because this is where we started with Warren this morning at 6:00 a.m.-- 6:00 a.m. eastern, I should point out. Just the idea of where the markets are right now. Are they fairly valued? Are they expensive? Is it hard to find things that you like? Bill, why don't we start with you since you're just sitting down with us. Warren pointed out that t looks pretty expensive to him on a lotta private deals that come along. And it's pretty hard to find bargains in the market. You're a big investor too. What--do you think when you look at the market today?

比尔·盖茨嗯,就绝对回报而言,十年期国债收益率在 3% 左右。这就是美元的无风险利率。要想赚到远高于 3% 的回报,你要么比所有人都聪明,要么就得承担一定的风险。所以,未来十年的绝对回报预计会比大多数十年周期要低。

BILL GATESWell, in terms of absolute returns, you've got the ten year around 3%. And so that's your risk free rate in dollars. So expecting to make a lot more than 3% on things-- you know, either you're being smarter than everybody else, or you're taking some level of risk. So with-- absolute returns are predicted to be lower-- over these next ten years than they've been in most ten year periods.

贝基·奎克股票的绝对回报?

BECKY QUICKAbsolute returns on stock?

比尔·盖茨所有资产类别。短期国债指明了基准。这就像地心引力一样。所以我不清楚——你知道,如果你去问投资者,我觉得他们期望的回报,就说州养老金计划吧——设定在 7.5%,少数几个设的还是 8%。那是不切实际的预期,这让那些赤字显得更糟糕。实际上,比它们纸面上显现的要糟糕不少。

<<<END P 8>>>

BILL GATESOn all asset classes. The--T-bill sets the rules. But strength of gravity-- and so I don't know-- you know, if you ask investors, I think they expect to earn, you know, just say state pension plans-- have 7.5%, a few still at 8%. That's an unrealistic expectation which makes those deficits a little worse. Actually, quite a bit worse than they appear on paper.

贝基·奎克嗯哼。查理,你怎么看?

BECKY QUICKUh-huh. Charlie, what do you think?

查理·芒格我同意。我同意比尔说的。

CHARLIE MUNGERI agree. I agree with Bill.

贝基·奎克没有更多补充了?

BECKY QUICKYou have nothing further to add?

查理·芒格没有更多补充了。

CHARLIE MUNGERI have nothing further to add.

贝基·奎克好,那我们——

BECKY QUICKAll right, we--

查理·芒格不过——还有一件事。我认为伯克希尔会表现得好一点。

CHARLIE MUNGERBut-- except one thing. I think Berkshire's gonna do a little better.

贝基·奎克比尔,你也同意吗?

BECKY QUICKBill, you agree with that too?

比尔·盖茨哦,当然。

BILL GATESOh, absolutely.

贝基·奎克伯克希尔做了什么,让它有这种优势?是——

BECKY QUICKSo what-- does Berkshire do that gives it that advantage? Is it--

查理·芒格我们没那么疯狂。我们只是——有些坏习惯我们没有。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe're less crazy. The way we just-- there're certain bad habits we don't have.

贝基·奎克比如?

BECKY QUICKSuch as?

查理·芒格非理性的方式有一百万种。虽然我们经常非理性,但比大多数人非理性的次数少。这确实很有帮助。

CHARLIE MUNGERThere're a million ways to be irrational. And while we are irrational pretty often, we're less often irrational than most people. That really helps.

沃伦·巴菲特我们的坏习惯不是财务上的。

WARREN BUFFETTOur bad habits are not financial.

贝基·奎克我想你大概不想细说。

BECKY QUICKI don't suppose you wanna go into any detail there.

沃伦·巴菲特我说的是查理的——我不打算谈——

WARREN BUFFETTI'm talkin' about Charlie's-- I'm not gonna talk about--

贝基·奎克好吧。我们来聊聊你们可能做的一些小投资。你们各自有自己的钱,除了伯克希尔的资金之外,你们会看并投资。查理,我知道你经常看中国,当你开始寻找你喜欢的地方时。

BECKY QUICKAll right. Let's-- talk a little bit about-- the dabbling you all may do. You-- each have your own money, aside from Berkshire money, that you look and you invest. And Charlie, I know you've looked to China a lotta times when you start looking at places that you like.

查理·芒格芒格家族在中国有大量投资。

CHARLIE MUNGERThe Munger family has invested in China substantially.

贝基·奎克从什么时候开始,为什么?

BECKY QUICKSince when and why?

查理·芒格大约 14 年前。我这么做是因为我尊重负责投资的那个人。而且一切看起来都很便宜。公司看起来也非常强大。当然,结果不错。我的回报远远超出了我合理的预期。

CHARLIE MUNGERSince about 14 years ago. And I did it because I respected the man who was going to do the investing. And it all looked inexpensive to me. And the companies looked very strong to me. And, of course, this worked out. I've done way better than I had any right to expect.

贝基·奎克现在看中国市场,还是这样吗?

BECKY QUICKDoes it still look that way when you look to the Chinese market?

查理·芒格我认为中国最好的公司比美国最好的公司更便宜。

CHARLIE MUNGERI think that the best companies in China are cheaper than the best companies in the United States.

贝基·奎克其他投资者在跟风之前可能担心的,是他们对中国公司了解不多,也许——

BECKY QUICKThe concern other investors might have before they-- follow in that way is that they don't know that much about Chinese companies and maybe--

查理·芒格他们就是普遍害怕中国。

CHARLIE MUNGERThey're just generally afraid of China.

贝基·奎克他们可能有一些理由吗?我的意思是,你有别人指导你,他们了解中国。如果有人想自己做,会不会更危险一点?

BECKY QUICKIs there a reason that they may have some-- I mean, you have people who are guiding you, who understand China well. If someone was tryin' to do this on their own, would it be a little more dangerous?

查理·芒格当然。了解你投资的国家确实很有帮助。当然。

CHARLIE MUNGERSure. It really helps to understand the country you're operating in. Of course.

贝基·奎克好吧,这就是我那个“愚蠢问题时刻”。我想我的意思是,对于在家看电视的投资者来说,你不一定会建议他们也这么做,对吧?

BECKY QUICKAll right, there's my that's a stupid question moment. You would not necessarily advise others to do this, I guess is my point, for investors who are sitting at home watching?

查理·芒格我觉得对任何聪明人来说,在中国找到四五家伟大的公司去投资,并不那么难。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think it would be all that hard for any smart person to find four or five great companies in China to invest in.

贝基·奎克好吧。比尔,你呢?你看下来,哪些领域吸引你?我知道你过去做过的事情,比如你涉足过外汇市场或者做过其他不同的事,但现在你在想什么?什么抓住了你的注意力?

BECKY QUICKAll right. Bill, how about you? When you look around, what areas are catching your fancy? I know of things that you've done in the past, areas where you've-- kind of gotten into currency markets or done different things, but what are you thinking right now? What--captures your attention?

比尔·盖茨嗯,我的科技投资几乎全部是微软的股票。从那些会有超高回报的东西来看,有些科技股被低估了。科技股的波动会非常大,因为有些市场里赢家最终会获得可观的利润池。因为我不想和微软产生冲突——我不怎么投资其他科技股。但我创建了一个幻想投资组合,来看看我的预测能力好不好。除此之外,我有一个团队在帮我投资。他们的投资相当多样化。在中国投了不少。中国看起来相当有吸引力。

BILL GATESWell, my tech-- investing is almost entirely the Microsoft stock. I think in terms of-- things that will have super high returns, there are tech stocks that are undervalued. You're just gonna get very high variance-- out of tech stocks because you have some markets where the winner ends up getting a substantial profit pool. Because I don't wanna have a conflict with Microsoft-- I don't invest a lot in other tech stocks. But I create a fantasy portfolio to see if my predictive powers is good or not. And outside of that, I have a team of people who invest. And they're quite diversified. They have-- a fair bit in China. China looks quite attractive.

贝基·奎克你的幻想科技联盟里都有谁?

BECKY QUICKWho's on your fantasy technology league?

比尔·盖茨我大概不应该谈这个。我的意思是,有些还是私人公司——比如 AirBnB,它在合理的估值下(笑)——是个很强的长期业务。

BILL GATESI probably shouldn't--talk about that. I mean, there're some that are still private-- like AirBnB, which-- you know, at a fair (LAUGH) valuation-- that's-- a strong long term business.

贝基·奎克为什么?

BECKY QUICKWhy?

比尔·盖茨因为他们为全球客户服务。所以他们的声誉和房源列表,你不能像打车服务那样,只进入一个城市,然后砸低价格,拉拢司机,做大量营销,就只在一个城市竞争。在这里,你需要全球声誉,全球库存。这让挑战那个领导地位变得困难得多。

BILL GATESBecause they serve customers globally. And so the-- reputation and listings they have you can't just go into one city like you might for a ride service and bomb the prices, you know, go get the drivers and do a lot of marketing. And-- just compete in that one city. Here, you have to have a global reputation, global inventory. And so it just makes challenging that leader position far more difficult.

贝基·奎克我的意思是,我一直以为 AirBnB 和打车服务有一些类似的风险——比如当地法规可能带来麻烦。你不担心 AirBnB 这点吗?

BECKY QUICKI--mean, I've always kind of thought of AirBnB and the ride services as having some of the similar risks-- in terms of local regulations that could get in the way with things. Does that not concern you with an AirBnB?

比尔·盖茨哦,当然。但他们——逐个城市地去处理。这对后来者来说是个进入壁垒。打车服务和 AirBnB 的竞争动态不一样,AirBnB 更有利。

BILL GATESOh, absolutely. But they're-- you know, city by city they get to deal with that. It's a barrier to entry for other people who come along. I-- the competitive dynamics for the ride services versus the-- AirBnB are different in AirBnB's favorite.

贝基·奎克我不会问你整个幻想科技公司名单,因为你已经告诉我你不会说。但苹果在名单上吗?毕竟伯克希尔投了那么多钱进去?

BECKY QUICKI won't ask you for your entire list of fantasy technology companies 'cause you already told me you wouldn't tell me. But is Apple on that list with Berkshire plowing so much money into it?

比尔·盖茨嗯,苹果是一家了不起的公司。而且它的市盈率不算离谱。它也不是那种还在烧钱或者乱七八糟的科技投机公司。所以,你知道,我觉得沃伦在这里运用了很棒的投资思路。顶尖的科技公司现在确实有——非常强劲的盈利地位。但苹果——拥有其中最大的份额。

BILL GATESWell, Apple's an amazing company. And the multiple's not gigantic. And it's not a tech speculative company where it's still losing money or anything. So, you know, I think Warren's applied, you know, great thinking there. The top tech companies do have-- a very strong profit position right now. But Apple-- has the most of all.

贝基·奎克沃伦,我猜当你描述这家公司时,你喜欢苹果的原因——不是基于技术层面的原因。你把它看成一家消费——

BECKY QUICKAnd Warren, I guess when you have described this company, the reason you like Apple is-- not reasons that are technology based reasons. You think of it as a consumer--

沃伦·巴菲特它是一家消——

WARREN BUFFETTIt's a c--

贝基·奎克——品公司。

BECKY QUICK--goods company.

沃伦·巴菲特我是说,是消费者对产品的行为——他们拿它做什么,它怎么融入他们的生活,诸如此类——才是我观察并主要据以推理的东西。如果明天有什么新东西冒出来,能把所有让它对那批用户有吸引力的地方淘汰殆尽,那,比尔肯定比我先知道。但它在消费者心智中占据着一席之地——并且对他们有一种极为、极为、极为实用的效用。这是一个不可思议的生态系统,而且他们一路走来还找到了从中获取更多利润的办法。我也该提一下,这两位——各自非伯克希尔持股的表现都比我强多了。

WARREN BUFFETTI mean, it's the consumer behavior with the product-- what they do with it, how it becomes part of their lives and all that sort of thing-- that I observe and primarily reason from. Now, if there was something coming out tomorrow that would obsolete everything that made it attractive to that group, you know, Bill would know it before I would. But it has a position in consumers' minds that is-- and a utility to them that's very, very, very useful. And it's an incredible ecosystem that they have found ways to profit more from as they've gone along. I should mention that both of these fellows-- have done way better with their non-Berkshire holdings than I have.

贝基·奎克沃伦,你连一部 iPhone 都没有,所以——

BECKY QUICKWarren, you don't even have an iPhone so--

沃伦·巴菲特前几天有个人寄给我一部——iPhone 10。但我还没——还没开始用。不过这人非常友善。他甚至解释——我想他——我想他假装是在给他三岁的小孩写信。他给我写了封非常贴心的信,说明了——这东西该怎么用,它不会咬我,你知道,不会干那种事。我——我这会儿正在给自己攒勇气呢。总有一天——我会迈出那一步。

WARREN BUFFETTA fellow sent me-- a ten the other day. But I haven't-- I'm not using it yet. A very nice fellow though. He even explained-- I think he-- I think he pretended he was writing to his three year old child. And he wrote me this very nice letter and explained-- what to do with it, it wouldn't bite me or, you know, do anything like that. And--- I'm kind of screwing up my courage here. And one of these days-- I'll move.

贝基·奎克查理,你有 iPhone 吗?

BECKY QUICKCharlie, do you have an iPhone?

查理·芒格当然没有。

CHARLIE MUNGEROf course not.

贝基·奎克你怎么看苹果?

BECKY QUICKWhat do you think about Apple?

查理·芒格我已经把我的加法机给弃了。

CHARLIE MUNGERI've given up my adding machine.

贝基·奎克你怎么看苹果?对这只股票有什么看法吗?

BECKY QUICKWhat do you think about Apple? Do you have a thought on the stock?

查理·芒格有。我希望我们持仓更多。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. I wish we owned more of it.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们聊过。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we talked about it.

查理·芒格我希望我们持仓更多。

CHARLIE MUNGERI wish we owned more of it.

贝基·奎克为什么?是不够吗?

BECKY QUICKWhy?

查理·芒格我觉得我们有点克制过头了。

CHARLIE MUNGERI think we've been a little too restrained.

贝基·奎克430 亿美元还不够?

BECKY QUICK$43 billion's not enough?

查理·芒格不够。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

贝基·奎克你——喜欢这家公司什么?

BECKY QUICKWhat--do you like about the company?

查理·芒格嗯,我喜欢它价格合理且实力强大。这是一个非常理想的组合。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I like the fact that it's reasonably priced and strong. That's a very desirable combination.

沃伦·巴菲特而且管理层——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd the management--

查理·芒格我喜欢管理层——

CHARLIE MUNGERI like the management--

沃伦·巴菲特告诉我们——

WARREN BUFFETTTells us --

查理·芒格是的。哦,是的。极为聪明的管理层。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. Oh, yes. Very intelligent management.

贝基·奎克查理,我想问问你周末发表的一些评论——人们很关注。我在推特上发了其中几条之后,我的推特信息流就炸了。尤其是你开始把比特币比作粪块的时候。为什么——你为什么——

BECKY QUICKLet me ask you, Charlie, about some comments that you made over the weekend-- that people paid attention to. My Twitter feed lit up when I tweeted about some of them. Specifically when you started talking about Bitcoin as turds. What-- why--

沃伦·巴菲特这居然会引起关注,我很意外。

WARREN BUFFETTI'm surprised that attracted any attention.

贝基·奎克你为什么把两者等同起来?

BECKY QUICKWhy did you equate the two?

查理·芒格嗯,比特币是一种毫无价值的人造黄金,如果它成功的话……会伴随大量非法活动。这可不是我认为世界需要的东西。它确实源自巧妙的计算机科学,但这并不意味着它应该被广泛使用,也不意味着体面的人应该鼓励别人去投机它。比特币让我想起奥斯卡·王尔德对猎狐的定义:不可言说之人追逐不可食之物。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, Bitcoin is worthless, artificial gold which, if it succeeded… a lot of illicit activity. Now, that is not something I think the world needs. And the fact that it's clever computer science doesn't mean that it should be widely used and that respectable people should encourage other people to speculate on it. Bitcoin reminds me of Oscar Wilde's definition of fox hunting, the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这比他之前用的说法好听。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it sounds better than what he used before.

贝基·奎克我们之前问过,查理——安德鲁跟沃伦提过这事,但是——

BECKY QUICKWe- asked earlier, Charlie, - Andrew brought it up with Warren, but--

查理·芒格我觉得这是一种下三滥的行当。这样说——你满意了吗?

CHARLIE MUNGERI think it's a scum ball activity. Does that bet-- serve you better?

贝基·奎克谢谢。是的。我们——之前问过高盛涉足比特币交易柜台业务的事。伯克希尔·哈撒韦持有约 25 亿美元的高盛股票。这让你困扰吗,还是你并不惊讶,就——

BECKY QUICKThank you. Yeah. We-- asked earlier about Goldman Sachs getting into the business of having a trading desk for Bitcoin. Berkshire Hathaway owns about $2.5 billion of Goldman Sachs. Does it bother you or does it not surprise you, just--

查理·芒格嗯,我不指望每家投资银行都同意我的一切想法。投资银行里有大量动物精神。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't expect every investment bank to agree with everything I think. They have a lot of animal spirits in investment banking.

贝基·奎克比尔,查理和沃伦已经对比特币发表了看法。你持有吗?

BECKY QUICKBill, Charlie and Warren have weighed in on Bitcoin. Do you own any?

比尔·盖茨有人在我生日时送了我一些。几年后,我想,“嘿,我要把它卖了。”所以现在没有了。在共享数据库和验证交易方面,有一些相当好的技术——就是大家说的区块链。那是件好事。至于比特币和各种 ICO,我完全同意——这是最疯狂的投机行为之一,它不算一种资产类别,你什么也不生产。所以你不应该指望它会涨。这纯属一种“博傻理论”型投资。所以,你知道,我同意。要是有简单的做空方法,我会做空它。

BILL GATESSomebody gave me some for my birthday. And then a few years later, I thought, "Hey, I'm gonna sell that." So no. There's some really good technology in terms of sharing databases and verifying transactions-- that is talked about as block chain. That is a good thing. Bitcoin and eye codes, I agree completely-- it's one of the crazier speculative things where it's not as an asset class, you're not producing anything. And so you shouldn't expect it to go up. It's-- kind of a pure, greater fool theory type-- investment. So, you know, I-- agree. I would short it if there was an easy way to do it.

沃伦·巴菲特有趣的是——如果人们在你批评他们的投资时生气,那他们就是在赌博。你知道,如果有人批评苹果或伯克希尔,我们喜欢这样。我是说,如果股价下跌,我们会买更多——因为——我们不在乎它是否——我们不觉得这事跟我们有关。但如果我们批评他们持有的东西,因为他们只希望它明天上涨——他们会觉得我们在伤害他们。因此,他们对此非常恼火。如果他们真的喜欢自己持有的东西,那又有什么关系呢,你知道?如果我批评他们的妻子或其他什么,他们不会那么烦恼。

WARREN BUFFETTOne of the-- interesting things. If people react-- when you criticize their investment, if they get mad, they're gambling. You know, if somebody criticizes Apple or Berkshire, we like it. I mean, if the stock goes down, we'll buy more of it-- because-- it's-- we don't care whether it just-- we don't feel that it has anything to do with us. But if we criticize something that they own because they only want it to go up tomorrow-- they feel we are hurting them. And therefore, they get very upset about it. If they really liked what they owned, what difference would it make, you know? If I criticize their wife or something, they don't get all upset about it.

比尔·盖茨那是个坏习惯。

BILL GATESThat's a bad habit.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,那是——是的。是的,这大概不是最完美的例子。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, that's-- yeah. Yeah, it's probably not the perfect-- example to use.

贝基·奎克关于隐私问题——我们之前跟沃伦谈过这事。硅谷发生的事情,围绕 Facebook 和 Twitter 以及 Google 和 Apple 的隐私问题,以及这如何给这些股票带来压力,让很多人把目光转向华盛顿,想知道是否会有监管措施出台——也看向欧盟,那里这个月就有监管措施出台。比尔,你过去处理过监管部门的严密审查。你认为这事有可能对硅谷产生影响吗?监管机构会出手吗?会改变硅谷的事情吗,会让这些公司更难遵循它们的商业模式吗?

BECKY QUICKIn terms of privacy issues-- we--spoke with-- Warren about this earlier. What's happened in Silicon Valley, privacy issues surrounding Facebook and Twitter and Google and Apple and how that has kind of weighed on those same stocks has a lotta people looking towards Washington, wondering if there will be regulation that comes down-- and looking towards the European Union, where regulation is coming this month. Bill, you've dealt with regulatory-- close scrutiny in the past. Is this something that you think is likely to have an impact in Silicon Valley? Will the regulators come? Will it change things in Silicon Valley and will it make it tougher for these companies to follow their business models?

比尔·盖茨嗯,隐私是一个非常重要的问题。但我确实认为,大公司即使面对监管——这是不可避免的——它们也能应对。人们不介意自己的一点人口统计信息被用来定向投放广告。这对用户来说是增值的。还有一些问题,比如医疗记录或通信内容,这些是非常私密的。隐私法的一个挑战是确保小公司仍然能够进入广告市场。这些规则可能会阻碍很多新公司。所以,我认为隐私的挑战是可以应对的。而平台发布内容的挑战——仇恨言论、言论自由、假新闻,以及你允许什么让人们愤怒,你知道,你应该做什么,每个政府都有自己的看法。所以,确保政府对这些规则承担责任,我认为这是任何人们表达意见的平台中最困难的事情之一。所以——

BILL GATESWell, privacy's a super important issue. But I do think that the big companies, even as regulation comes, which is-- inevitable-- they'll be able to handle it. People don't mind having a little bit of demographic information about themselves used to target ads. That's-- value added to the user. And there are issues about medical records or the content of your communications that are-- very private. One challenge with the privacy laws is making sure small companies can still-- get involved in the ad market. These rules could block-- lots of new companies. So I-- think the challenge of privacy can be met. The challenge of what gets published on a platform-- hate speech, free speech-- fake news and what you allow people to get outraged about, you know, and what you should do, every government has a view. And so making sure the government takes responsibility for those rules, I think that's one of the toughest things for any platform where people are expressing opinions. So--

贝基·奎克我是说——

BECKY QUICKI mean--

比尔·盖茨——那是一个单独的问题。而且我认为是两者中更难的那个。

BILL GATES--that's a separate issue. And I think the harder of the two.

贝基·奎克你是说扮演出版商而不是公告板的角色,一路回溯到 CompuServe 时代?

BECKY QUICKYou mean acting as a publisher rather than a bulletin board, going all the way back to CompuServe?

比尔·盖茨对。如果人们期望你阻止某些东西而不阻止其他东西,他们总是会事后诸葛亮。这是一个实时系统,有成千上万的人在写东西。这些判断决定,你需要——一些政府的标准制定机构,而不是私人公司来做这些决定。

BILL GATESRight. And if people expect you to stop certain things and not others, they'll always do that in retrospect. And it's a real-time system with millions of people writing things. Those judgment calls, you need-- some standards group of the government, not a private corporation to make those calls.

贝基·奎克查理,你怎么看?

BECKY QUICKCharlie, what do you think?

查理·芒格嗯,我认为我们总是用电视广告把各党的蠢货赶到投票站。而且——用一种非常误导的方式卖给他们。我们只是把误导性的广告转移到不同的媒介上。我确实认为它效果更好。换句话说,我认为 Facebook 这东西,在把愤怒的蠢货赶到投票站方面真有一套。我认为这在一定程度上改变了游戏规则。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think we always use television ads to flog the idiots of each party to the polls. And to-- sell 'em in a very misleading way. And we're just shifting the misleading ads to a different medium. I do think it works better. In other words, I think the Facebook thing, it's really good at flogging angry idiots to the polls. And I think that changes the equation some.

贝基·奎克改变游戏规则,你的意思是它会——

BECKY QUICKChanges the equation meaning you think it would--

查理·芒格意思是它对政治有影响。

CHARLIE MUNGERMeaning it has an effect on politics.

贝基·奎克它对政治有影响,因此会带来监管?

BECKY QUICKIt has an effect on politics and therefore will bring in regulation?

查理·芒格我不——我认为它因此不会带来监管。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't-- I think it therefore won't bring in regulation.

贝基·奎克因为政客们——

BECKY QUICK'Cause the politicians--

查理·芒格很难管住那些非要在政治上犯傻的人。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's hard to control people who want to be silly about politics.

贝基·奎克安德鲁也有一个问题。安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew has a question too. Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金我本来想问比尔,但大家都可以说说。考虑到 GEICO 的股权关系,也许你们——沃伦和查理——对此也有一些见解。我在想自动驾驶汽车的事,也就是你们刚才谈到的技术,甚至包括埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉。就目前市面上的汽车和整个汽车市场来看,从技术角度讲,你们觉得有没有哪家比另一家做得更出色?另外,你们怎么看特斯拉本身——作为一项投资?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINI was just gonna ask Bill, but everybody can weigh in on this. Given the ownership of Geico, maybe you have some insight into it as well-- Warren and Charlie. I was thinking of autonomous vehicles, where you guys were talking about technology and even Elon Musk-- with Tesla. When you look at the cars that are-- and the car market that's out there, do you see in terms of technology any of them-- doing better-- than the other? And--what do you think of Tesla actually-- as an investment itself?

贝基·奎克比尔?

BECKY QUICKBill?

查理·芒格我不想对特斯拉发表看法。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't wanna weigh in on Tesla.

比尔·盖茨对,特斯拉正在打造一款优秀的产品。它们的估值非常高,未来将面临所有汽车厂商入局与之竞争的局面。这与某些科技市场不同,在那些市场里领先者能拿走几乎全部份额。汽车行业会艰难得多。向自动驾驶和电动化的转型是并行的。如果以 15 年为时间跨度来看,变化将是极其剧烈的。我本人对新技术的普及偏乐观。而且我认为,放眼全球,很多城市都想抢先引入这类廉价的自动驾驶服务。所以这件事很令人期待,其他汽车公司如今也被逼着制定了电动车和自动驾驶的战略。有些公司拿出的计划相当亮眼。

BILL GATESYeah, Tesla's-- making a great product. They have a very high valuation and they will experience-- all the auto makers coming in and competing with them. And-- so it's not like some tech markets that the leader gets all that-- market share. It's gonna be a tougher thing. The-- move to autonomous and electric are proceeding in parallel. And if you take-- you know, 15 year timeframe, it's gonna be a very, very dramatic change. You know, I tend to be optimistic about technology adoption. And I think worldwide, while there's a lot of cities that wanna be the first to get in with these cheap autonomous services. So-- it's exciting and the other car companies now have been forced to have strategies for electric cars and autonomous. Some have very impressive plans.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金保险费会不会更低——

ANDREW ROSS SORKINAre there lower insurance--

贝基·奎克沃伦,你……你先说,安德鲁。

BECKY QUICKWarren, what-- what does-- oh, go ahead, Andrew.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金我刚才是想问,保险费会不会更低,就 GEICO 而言,对于特斯拉,或者新款凯迪拉克,就是那种带半自动驾驶功能的车——你知道,某些新功能让电脑能比人开得稍微多一些的车——保险费会不会更低?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINI was just gonna say are there lower insurance rates, talking about-- thinking about Geico, for a Tesla or for the new Cadillac that has-- some kind of-- semi autonomous driving you know, some of these new features that-- that allow the computer to drive a little bit more than the human?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,任何能够大规模普及的汽车,大概率都会更安全。更安全的车会带来更低的保险费。但有一点微弱的抵消因素:在碰撞事故这块,车辆本身的损坏——比如保险杠或侧后视镜之类的——现在修起来要贵得多,因为车子本身比以前复杂太多了。所以单起事故的财产损失,不是指人身伤害,而是车辆本身的物理损坏,这部分费用很可能大幅攀升。不过,事故数量不会……除非车辆真的更安全,否则你看不到大规模普及。我们也希望车更安全。所以,净效果来看,如果自动驾驶汽车日后在汽车保有量中占据很大比重,长期而言,这对汽车保险行业是不利的。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the-- presumably, any cars that catch on big are going to be safer. And a safer car is going to bring lower insurance rates. There's one some-- there's-- modest offset to that in that, in terms of-- collision activity-- the damage is done to a car by-- in terms of a bumper or-- a side rearview mirror something. Costs far more now-- it's a much more complex product. So the damage per accident, not human damage, but physical damage to the car, that will probably go up substantially. But the number of accidents won't-- you won't see widespread adoption unless they're safer. And-- we want a safer car. So it's-- net, it will be bad for the-- auto insurance industry over time if autonomous cars become-- a big part of the fleet.

贝基·奎克比尔刚才提到,未来 15 年会看到相当重大的变化。GEICO 也是按这个时间维度来考量的吗?

BECKY QUICKBill just mentioned that over the next 15 years you are gonna see some pretty significant changes. Is that the timeframe that Geico is looking at that too?

沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,我们当然也不知道未来具体会怎样。眼下美国路上有 2.6 亿辆车。假设一年里有 10% 的人换成了自动驾驶汽车,那也就是年销量 1800 万辆新车里占了 180 万辆。这个更新换代周期是相当长的,等等。但任何对消费者最有利、长期看也最安全的东西,最终一定会胜出。这对美国大众是件好事。很难说赢家会是谁。在传统汽车时代,要提前十年挑出表现最好的公司就已十分困难,这也是查理和我总在聊汽车行业的原因。所以挑选赢家非常难,五年后再来挑一样很难。没人能独占整个市场,绝不会有这种事。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it-- we don't know, I mean, what it'll be. And you've got 260 million cars on the road. Let's just say that 10% of the people took up-- autonomous cars in a year. Now you're talking about-- a million eight outta the 18 million. And-- there's-- a big life cycle to it and all that. But what does best for the consumer and is safer over time really will prevail-- over time. It-- and that's good for the American public. It's very hard to tell who the winner will be. Or there-- won't-- it-- was hard under the conventional car to pick out which would be the company that was doing the best ten years earlier. That's why Charlie and I have talked about the auto industry for-- forever. So it's very hard to pick winners. And it'll be hard to pick winners five years from now. Nobody's gonna own the market or anything of the sort.

查理·芒格几乎所有的车现在做得这么好,真是让我叹服。那么多机械结构,到处布满了电路,你买辆车开上十年居然几乎不出一点毛病。这实在是了不起的成就。

CHARLIE MUNGERI am amazed at how good almost all the cars are. With all those several mechanisms and all that electricity scattered through, you can buy a car and drive it ten years with practically no trouble. It's an amazing achievement.

贝基·奎克你们在电动汽车上不是也重仓了比亚迪吗。

BECKY QUICKI mean, you were big on the electric vehicles too with BYD.

查理·芒格这个嘛,你得知道,在中国,那会儿城市里的空气都没法正常呼吸。所以我觉得,中国最终可能转向更多电动车。这思路不难想。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you gotta remember in China, you couldn't breathe the air in the city. So I thought they might end up with more electric cars. Wasn't a very difficult idea.

贝基·奎克我们稍微谈谈伯克希尔整体的情况,以及今年我们看到的一些变化。阿吉特·贾恩和格雷格·阿贝尔被任命为副董事长,和查理并列担任这一职务。沃伦,这一变化对你日常工作有什么影响?

BECKY QUICKLet's talk a little bit about Berkshire overall and some of the changes that we've seen this year. Ajit Jain and Greg Abel named as-- co-vice chairmen along with Charlie on this. How has it changed your day to day life, Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,变化不大,但确实轻松了些。本来就已经很轻松了。我是说——但——确实很轻松。我不喜欢的那 5% 部分,我就说:“好吧,这些是你们的新职责——”我就是这样分配他们的职责的。而且——嗯,查理可以告诉你,这对我们的生活改变很小,但全是好事。对伯克希尔非常好,对我就更好了。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, not a lot, but it's made it easier. It was already easy to start with. I mean-- but -- the-- really easy. But the 5% that I didn't like, I just said, "Well, those are your new-- responsibility--" that's the way I selected what their responsibilities would be. And-- it-- well, Charlie could tell you, it's changed our lives very little, but all for the better. It's been very, very good for Berkshire and it's been even better for me.

贝基·奎克查理,你是支持这个的。我觉得是你的主意——任命他们为副董事长——

BECKY QUICKCharlie, you were a proponent of this. I think it was your idea-- to name them vice chairmen--

查理·芒格嗯,几乎——在全美国,你几乎找不到两个人在工作中做得比他们更好。非常杰出的人。事实是我们来得太晚了。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it was hardly-- you could hardly find two people who've done better in their jobs in all of America. Very outstanding people. The truth is that we're too late.

贝基·奎克比尔,我知道继任问题——对董事会其他成员来说是个常见或持续的话题。董事会怎么看这些安排?现在他们俩都成了董事会成员,从董事会角度看这又意味着什么?

BECKY QUICKBill, I know succession is-- a common, or constant-- topic with the rest of the board members. What does the board think about this, about these positionings and now that they're both board members too, what does that mean just from board's perspective?

比尔·盖茨嗯,有两位精力充沛、能力超强的人帮助沃伦,这是件激动人心的事。现在他们又是董事会成员。我认识他们都超过十年了。我对他们的贡献感到惊讶。他们理解伯克希尔的文化,因为他们身处其中并从中受益。所以这是个好消息。

BILL GATESWell, it's exciting to have two, you know, highly energetic, super capable people helping out Warren. And now as board members. I've gotten to know both of them-- for over ten years. And I'm just amazed at-- what they bring. They understand the Berkshire culture because they've been inside it and have benefited from it. So it's great news.

贝基·奎克有人怀疑这是否在制造一场继任竞赛。我听说罗恩·奥尔森上周末驳斥了这个想法。你会怎么回应?

BECKY QUICKThere're people who are wondering if this was creating a horserace for-- successor. I heard Ron Olson s-- knocking down that idea over the weekend. How-- would you respond to that?

比尔·盖茨不,这不是一场竞赛或者——成为继任者。这样描述并不恰当。

BILL GATESNo, it's-- not a horserace or-- being the successor. That's-- that's not a good way to characterize it.

贝基·奎克那怎样描述才合适?

BECKY QUICKWhat is the right way to characterize it?

比尔·盖茨向沃伦汇报的业务数量——是个相当惊人的数字。所以现在从一个人管理所有这些业务,变成了三个人。公司并没有增加很多员工,比如在格雷格和阿吉特手下。你只是有了三个出色的商业头脑——管理者超过 50 个业务实体。这仍然是你见过的最扁平的管理结构之一。如果你画一张组织图,就算现在有了三个人,你仍然需要一张极宽的纸。所以——你知道,伯克希尔仍然非常非常独特。

BILL GATESThat-- the number of businesses that report to Warren-- is a pretty unbelievable number. And so now you've gone from one person with all those businesses reporting to him, to three people. So the company's not adding, you know, a lot of staff, you know, under Greg and under Ajit. You just have three great business minds-- managing, you know, over 50-- business entities. So it's still one of the leanest management structures you ever seen. If you draw it out as an org chart, you have to have one of the widest pieces of paper ever, even with the three now. So-- you know, Berkshire's still very, very unique.

贝基·奎克好的。各位,我们还会和沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、比尔·盖茨继续聊这个话题。广告之后,我们将从内布拉斯加州的奥马哈带来更多内容。(音乐)欢迎回到《财经论谈》特别节目。我们现在在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈直播。今早我们请到了微软联合创始人、伯克希尔董事会成员比尔·盖茨。查理·芒格,伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长。以及沃伦·巴菲特,伯克希尔董事长兼首席执行官。先生们,过去半小时我们聊了你们对市场、科技、隐私问题、比特币的看法。我想接下来半小时我们聊得更广泛一点,因为你们三位对世界和如何改善它都有大想法。你们在慈善项目上投入了大量金钱和时间,试图找到超越的方法。你们恰好对很多不同的事情了解极深。过去半年左右,媒体上经常提到的一个问题是,伯克希尔与摩根大通和亚马逊联手,试图找到遏制美国医疗成本和医疗成本上涨的方法。沃伦,我们和你聊过这个,但还没有机会和比尔、查理多聊。顺便说一下,对于不清楚的人,查理过去 31 年一直是洛杉矶好撒玛利亚人医院的董事会主席。所以他对医疗保健了解很深。比尔·盖茨在全球医疗问题上不遗余力。实际上,盖茨基金会在过去五年里已经向全球健康项目投入了 120 亿美元。所以如果有人质疑你们在这方面的资质,这就是答案。比尔,我们从你开始吧?你认为解决医疗成本上涨的问题怎么样,美国该如何应对?这事能取得进展吗?

BECKY QUICKAll right. Folks, we are gonna have more of this conversation with Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates. We will be back with more from Omaha, Nebraska, right after this. (MUSIC) Welcome back to a special edition of "Squawk Box." We are live from Omaha, Nebraska. And we are joined this morning by Bill Gates, the cofounder of Microsoft and a Berkshire board member. Charlie Munger, who's the vice chair of Berkshire Hathaway, and Warren Buffett, who is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire. And gentlemen, the last half hour we've kind of been delving through your thoughts on the markets, on technology, on privacy issues, on Bitcoin. I thought we might take this next half hour and go a little broader because all three of you have big ideas about the world and how to fix it. You have spent a considerable amount of money and time on philanthropic projects, on trying to find ways to move beyond. And you all happen to know a lot about so many different things. One of the issues that's been so much in the headlines over the last six months or so has been Berkshire's move to go along with JPMorgan and Amazon to try and come up with a way to reign in health care cost and health care cost inflation in the United States. Warren, we've talked with you about this but we haven't gotten the chance to talk with Bill and Charlie so much about this. For those who don't know it, by the way, Charlie for the last 31 years, has been the chairman of the board at Good Samaritan Hospital in Los Angeles. So he knows an awful lot about health care. Bill Gates has worked tirelessly when it comes to health care issues around the globe. In fact, the Gates Foundation has invested $12 billion in global health initiatives just over the last five years. So for anybody who's wondering about your credentials on this, there they are. Why don't we start with you, Bill? What do you think about the idea of trying to tackle health care cost inflation and how that might be tackled in the United States? Is this something that could get traction?

比尔·盖茨嗯,我认为除了改善教育体系外,确保医疗成本不会继续快速上涨是最大的问题。看看州政府,长期来看,它们不得不把钱从教育和基础设施转移到各种医疗支出上。所以这对政府是个问题,对企业也是个问题。任何审视这个系统、利用最新技术提高效率、奖励低成本提供者让他们获得市场份额的努力,我认为都非常棒。我研究了很多。但我不认为这是个容易解决的问题。但三家公司合作是非常棒的。如果他们成功了,会有数百家公司愿意加入。但首先,他们得招人,得把焦点明确起来。

BILL GATESWell, I think other than improving the education system, making sure that health care costs don't continue to go up so rapidly is the biggest issue. If you look at state governments, over time, they've had to shift money away from education and infrastructure, into the various health care expenses they have. And so it's a problem for the government, it's a problem for business. So any effort to take a look at this system and how we use the latest technology to make it more efficient, to reward the low cost providers so that they gain market share, I think that's fantastic. I've studied it a lot. And I don't think it's an easy thing to fix. But it's fantastic that the three companies are going to work together. To the degree they succeed, there are hundreds of companies that would love to join in. But first, they've got to hire some people and it's got to come into focus.

贝基·奎克查理,我们来聊聊你认为这个问题有多容易解决。从你在医院的角度看,你是否看到了大量浪费?

BECKY QUICKCharlie, let's just talk about how fixable you think this problem is. Do you see a lot of rampant waste when it comes to these issues at least from your perspective at the hospital?

查理·芒格大量的浪费是个好说法,当然。但我们的系统充斥着大量的浪费。而且我们提供的很多医疗是错的。所以,又贵又错是荒谬的。很多医疗提供者人为延长死亡,以便赚更多钱。我认为这是极其不道德的。而且这种情况很多。所以我认为,当民主党第一次控制政府所有三个分支时,我们会得到单一支付方医疗。我认为情况太糟了,人们会寻求由政府推动的彻底变革。让一个年轻人生孩子时面临 5000 美元的免赔额,那已经不是保险了。这是为了让某些保险公司日子好过一点的伎俩。但它算不上医疗保险。整个系统充斥着缺陷。当然,我欢迎伯克希尔试图在某些方面让它变得更好。

CHARLIE MUNGERRampant waste is a good phrase, of course. But our system is shot through with rampant waste. And a lot of the medical care we do deliver is wrong. And so, expensive and wrong is ridiculous. A lot of our medical providers artificially prolong death so they can make more money. I regard that as deeply immoral. And there's a lot of it. And so I think the first time the Democrats control all three branches of government, we will get single payer medicine. I think it's so bad, that people will reach out for a complete change forced by the government. To have a young person have a $5,000 deductible when he has a baby, that's not insurance anymore. It's some stratagem to make things better for some insurance company. But it's not really medical insurance. This whole system is shot through with defects. And, of course, I welcome the fact that Berkshire is trying to make it a little better in some ways.

贝基·奎克如果你能解决它,你会怎么做?有没有可能不是简单的方法,但有明显的途径来应对?

BECKY QUICKIf you could fix it, how would you go about doing it? Are there maybe not easy ways, but are there obvious ways of trying to tackle that?

查理·芒格要达到新加坡那样的体制非常困难,它的成本只有我们体制的大约 20%,运行得还更好。从我们目前的位置出发,我认为我们永远不可能达到。在我们这样一个庞大富有的国家。但我们可以比现在做得更好。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's very hard to get to a system like Singapore's, which costs about 20% of what our system does and works better. From where we are now, we will never get there, in my opinion. In a big, rich nation like ours. But we can have a better system than we have now.

贝基·奎克全民医保是答案吗?您说过您认为这是未来的方向。

BECKY QUICKWould universal health care be the answer? You said you think that's what would happen.

查理·芒格全民医保确实有很多缺陷。但带有退出机制的全民医保,就像所有发达国家——英国、加拿大等等——所实行的体制,是一个相当合理的体系。而且其他地方也都是这样的。所以我并不担心它。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, there're many defects in universal health care. But universal health care with an opt out, which they have in all the advanced nations – England, Canada and so forth – it's a perfectly reasonable system. And it exists everywhere else. So I'm not frightened of it.

贝基·奎克带有退出机制的全民医保,基本上就是富人付更多钱、享受不同级别的医疗服务,这是不是——

BECKY QUICKUniversal health care with an opt out being basically universal health care that rich people pay more for and get a different level of care, is that—

查理·芒格没错。即便在新加坡,如果你想要一间更好的病房,你并不会因此得到更好的医生或护士,但只要你愿意出钱,他们就会给你一间更好的病房。

CHARLIE MUNGERSure. Even in Singapore if you want a better hospital room, you don't get a better doctor or a better nurse, but they'll give you a better hospital room if you want to pay for it.

贝基·奎克安德鲁有一个问题。

BECKY QUICKAndrew has a question.

查理·芒格我觉得这完全没问题。

CHARLIE MUNGERI see nothing wrong with that.

贝基·奎克安德鲁也有一个问题,我猜是接着这个话题的。安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew has a question too. I'm assuming it jumps onto this. Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金确实是接着医保这个话题。这个问题是提给沃伦的。沃伦,一直以来,您都放手让伯克希尔的各位经理人自主运营各自的业务板块,没有从总部层面强加过什么方案。我很好奇,当您真的和亚马逊、摩根大通一起推进这个医疗计划时,经理人们是自愿选择加入,还是会被要求必须参加?

ANDREW ROSS SORKINIt does on the health care front. And it's for Warren. Warren, historically, you've allowed all the managers at Berkshire to run their groups autonomously and haven't imposed different programs from headquarters. I'm curious when you do implement the health care program with Amazon and JPMorgan, whether it will be voluntary for the managers to effectively choose to be part of it, or whether it'll be something that they're going to have to do.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,第一,等到这个计划落地的时候,我可能已经不在了。这可能得等到未来的某个时候——这是一个极其困难的项目。我是说,这不是——我觉得在某些地方小修小补或许相当容易。但我们现在非常希望,能针对一个占 GDP 的比重已经从 5% 攀升到 18% 而且还在继续走高的领域,做点什么。要知道,我们选的可不是一件轻松的差事。整个医疗体系的开支有 3.3 万亿美元左右。每一块钱,就像政府开支里的每一块钱一样,都对应着某一个利益群体,都有它的捍卫者。我确实认为这件事太重要了,值得我们去尝试。我会告诉我们的经理人,而且我已经告诉过他们,我们绝不会——绝不会推出任何在他们所享受的医疗服务上损害他们利益的东西。而且这事如果——如果我们能拿出任何行之有效的改进方案,我可以保证他们会喜欢的。我不需要——任何人都不需要硬塞给他们。我的意思是,会有人加入我们的。但这确实是一个极为艰难的爬坡。不过,这事我们应该干。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, A, I may not be around when that takes place. That may be sometime in the – this is an extraordinarily difficult project. I mean, this is not – and I think it might well be reasonably easy to make – do a little something here and there. But we're really hoping that something that has gone from 5% of GDP to 18% of GDP and just keeps moving, we can do something about it. You know, we have not picked an easy task. You've got $3.3 trillion or something like that spent on the health care system. And every dollar, just like in government, every dollar has – hits a constituency, has a defender. And I do think it's so important that it should be tried. And what I would tell our managers, and I've told our managers, that we will never – we will not be coming up with something that hurts them in terms of the care they receive. And it's going – if we come up with any kind of an improved product, I can guarantee you they will like it. I won't have to – no one will have to stuff it down their throat. I mean, and we will have people join us. But it is really an uphill climb. But we should be doing it.

贝基·奎克您上周末说过,希望能在未来几个月内为这三家公司合作的这个新计划任命一位 CEO。

BECKY QUICKYou said over the weekend that you hope to have a CEO named for this new initiative between the three companies in the next couple of months.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。

WARREN BUFFETTYes.

贝基·奎克这个人选的范围已经大幅缩小了吗?

BECKY QUICKHas it been narrowed down significantly, the search?

沃伦·巴菲特是的,已经缩小到很少几个人了。而这无疑是我们将要做出的最重要的决定。我是说,这事没别的方法——而且我们有很多人想要这份工作。但这是一个异常艰难的工作,因为你需要非常——你必须对这个体系有极其深入的了解。但你还必须能够跳出体系思考,必须明白你的对手会是谁,必须理解公众舆论。而且你必须,你知道,能在某些领域把成本砍下来 1% 或 2%。但我们确实希望,在这个位置上能找到那个能带来实质性突破的完美人选。而且正如查理会告诉你的那样,历史上是有过一些先例的。

WARREN BUFFETTIt's been narrowed down to, yeah, a very few. And it's by far the most important decision we'll make. I mean, there's no way – and we've got plenty of people who want the job. But it is an extraordinarily difficult job because you have to be very – you have to plenty knowledgeable about, enormously knowledgeable about the system. But you have to be able to get your mind beyond it and you have to understand who your opponents will be, you have to understand public opinion. And you have to, you know, you could bargain down costs in some areas 1%, or 2%. But we really hope we can find the perfect person in terms of being able to make a real jump. And as Charlie will tell you, there's some history in terms of what happened.

查理·芒格当年洛克菲勒彻底让美国医疗体系旧貌换新颜,他瞄准的就是那些低垂的果实。他打击的是那些江湖郎中和庸医之流。我猜伯克希尔也能找到一些低垂的果实。

CHARLIE MUNGERWhen Rockefeller totally revolutionized American health care for the better, he went after the low hanging fruit. He went after the charlatans and the quacks and so forth. And my guess is that Berkshire will find some low hanging fruit.

贝基·奎克如果非要您猜一下,这些低垂的果实可能在哪里——

BECKY QUICKIf you had to guess where that low hanging fruit would be—

查理·芒格哦,我知道有很多低垂的——我不想说了。

CHARLIE MUNGEROh, I know there's a lot of low hanging – I don't want to say.

贝基·奎克好吧。

BECKY QUICKOkay.

沃伦·巴菲特不过我们会悄悄告诉我们的新 CEO。

WARREN BUFFETTWe will whisper it to our new CEO, though.

贝基·奎克说到新 CEO,我知道这件事由托德·库姆斯牵头。但考虑到你们的专长,查理和比尔,你们对新 CEO 的人选或该做什么有什么建议吗?

BECKY QUICKWell, speaking of the new CEO, I realize that this is something that Todd Combs is heading it up. But given your expertise, Charlie and Bill, have you had any input into what should happen with this, who the new CEO should be?

比尔·盖茨托德是个很善于学习的人。他和我探讨过医保体系的现状。但没有具体讨论该雇谁。你知道,我认为有三件非常不同的事情。如果伯克希尔能找到优化自身医保成本的方法,这与整个美国医保体系、以及可及性与成本,是完全不同的两码事。如果你增加可及性,除非像全民医保那样非常小心,否则会急剧推高成本。

BILL GATESWell, Todd's a great learner. And he and I have brainstormed about, you know, what health care looks like. But not specifically on who gets hired. You know, I think there's three things that are very separable. If Berkshire, you know, finds a way to optimize its health care cost, versus the entire U.S. health care system and access versus cost are two different things. If you add access, unless you're very careful like a universal coverage, it will actually drive up costs pretty dramatically.

贝基·奎克而且还可能降低标准或减少人们获得的服务。

BECKY QUICKAnd potentially lower standards or lower what access people get.

比尔·盖茨对。你知道,佛蒙特州测算过全民医保的成本,连支持者都被那个数字惊呆了。所以我们必须创造两个奇迹:在美国提高可及性,同时降低成本。

BILL GATESRight. So when, you know, Vermont costed out what universal care would cost, even the proponents were stunned at the cost. So we have to perform two miracles. We have to get better access in America and get the cost down.

沃伦·巴菲特可能还有另外几个我们甚至没意识到的奇迹。目标不是降低伯克希尔的成本。我们会有一位 CEO,我希望,预计在几个月内到位。我们需要一个杰出的人。那个人还必须吸引一批同样杰出的人来加入。这是关键之一,你得有能吸引其他人才的人,等等。所以不会有任何事很快发生,除了我们当然希望尽快把 CEO 确定下来。但他们不会立刻把整个体系翻个底朝天。但你需要找一个能思考五年后你想达到什么目标、并找出通往那里路径的人。

WARREN BUFFETTProbably couple other miracles we don't even know about. The goal is not to reduce Berkshire's costs. And we will have a CEO and I hope, I would expect within a couple of months. And we will need a remarkable individual. That person will have to also have a number of remarkable people who wish to join the person. That's one of the things, you have to have somebody that does attract other talent, so on. And so nothing's going to happen fast, except we do want to get the CEO in place, obviously. But they're not going to turn the whole system upside down immediately. But you want somebody that thinks about where you want to be in five years and figure out some path toward that.

贝基·奎克这个人显然必须是医疗专家,但来自哪个领域呢?因为不管他们来自哪个领域——

BECKY QUICKI mean, obviously the person has to be an expert in health care, but from which arena? Because whatever arena they're coming from—

沃伦·巴菲特当然。是的,你跟一个经营了 20 年医院的人谈,他会觉得除了医院之外都是问题,你明白吗?如果你跟一个……我是说,现实就是这样。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, sure. Yeah, if you'd talk to somebody that's run a hospital for 20 years, they think everything but the hospital's a problem, you know? And if you talk to some, I mean, it's just the way it is.

贝基·奎克没错。我们来更广泛地谈谈我们今天看到的一些问题。早些时候,我们和沃伦讨论了贸易问题,特别是与中国的贸易,我们的代表团刚从中国回来。但贸易在北美自由贸易协定以及我们全球的贸易协议中一直是个大问题。而且特朗普政府的策略与以往几届政府有些不同。也许我们现在就能看到它是否奏效。我们正处于这个节点。查理,你认为我们最终会陷入贸易战,还是你会认为我们能因此得到更好的贸易协议?

BECKY QUICKRight. Let's talk a little bit more broadly about some of the issues that we're seeing today. Earlier, we spoke with Warren about trade issues, particularly with China, with our delegation just coming back from China. But trade has been a big issue when it comes to NAFTA, when it comes to our trade agreements around the world. And the strategy from the Trump administration has been a little different than what we've seen from previous administrations. Maybe now we're going to find out if it works or not. We're at that point. Charlie, what do you think about whether or not we're going to wind up in trade wars or whether you think we get better trade agreements as a result?

查理·芒格我对中国和美国合作相当乐观。他们不合作、不发展互信的建设性关系,那将是疯狂的。我没有理由认为这不会发生。

CHARLIE MUNGERI'm pretty optimistic about China and the United States working together. It would be insane for them not to work together and not to develop a trusting, constructive relationship. And I have no reason to think that that won't happen.

贝基·奎克比尔?

BECKY QUICKBill?

比尔·盖茨我同意。不过我可以说,美国目前在可预测性、稳定性和找到正确方法方面,让事情变得有点挑战性。你知道,我们都是贸易巨大好处的坚定信奉者。所以,当情绪转向反对贸易时,你知道,是否需要做更多来帮助那些受贸易影响的人?政治上,两个候选人都没有支持自由贸易,这很引人注目。

BILL GATESI agree. Although I would say the U.S. is making that a bit challenging right at the moment in terms of predictability and stability and finding the right approach. You know, we're all big believers in the large benefits of trade. And so, the fact that the sentiments have turned against it, you know, do you need to do more to help those who aren't hurt by trade? Politically, it's impressive that free trade was not supported by either candidate.

贝基·奎克你指的是在总统选举中?

BECKY QUICKYou mean in the U.S. election?

比尔·盖茨正是。

BILL GATESExactly.

贝基·奎克对。这可能是 2008 年和 2009 年之后的反噬。那些感觉被抛下、至今没追上别人的人。我不确定还能怎么处理。哪种才是正确的做法。但比尔,你是一个需要走遍各国,通过你的基金会和你在那里的工作,希望每个人都能合作的人。做这件事变得比以前更难了,还是跟以前一样?

BECKY QUICKRight. It may be the blowback after what happened in 2008 and 2009. People who felt like they got left behind and who haven't caught up with others. I'm not sure how else to handle that. What the right way about going to do that would've been. But Bill, you're somebody who has to go from nation to nation, country to country, and through the foundation and your work there, kind of hope that everyone can work together. Has it gotten tougher to do that, or is it the same as it was before?

比尔·盖茨世界上最重要的关系就是中美关系。你可以想象出很多双赢的事,贸易、创新、帮助推动世界稳定,尽管这两个国家有着截然不同的历史和截然不同的政府。所以当你看到即便是过去这几个月,火花四溅,你确实会担心。但我认为理性最终会胜出。我们的基金会与中国政府合作了很多。我们很高兴看到中国正在成为一个更大的援助国。所以即使对于我们帮助贫穷国家的工作来说,让这种关系保持稳固也将非常有、非常有帮助。

BILL GATESWell, the most important relationship in the world is between the United States and China. And you could imagine lots of win-win things with trade, with innovation, with helping to drive stability for the world, where countries with very different histories, very different governments. And so you do worry as you watch even in these last few months, the sparks fly. But I think logic will prevail. Our foundation has worked a lot with the Chinese government. And we're excited they're becoming a bigger aid donor. So even for the work we do to help poor countries, having this relationship be strong would be very, very helpful.

沃伦·巴菲特比尔和梅琳达在推动各国于健康领域携手合作这件事上,也确实做了极其重大且重要的事情。在攻坚疫苗以及诸多健康相关事务上,他们让世界变得更加紧密。假以时日,这类事业终将在世界范围内占据上风。我的意思是,当人们亲眼看到某些做法行之有效、自己的生活变得更好——而且你还提到了繁荣带来的问题——我是说,如果国家变得远比过去繁荣,它们就理应想出一种办法,让其全体公民都能以某种方式参与其中。你希望保留市场体系——它能创造奇迹,诸如此类。但你能真真切切地看到比尔和梅琳达所取得的成就。他们已经影响其他国家采取了合作行动。这是一项极为了不起的成就。

WARREN BUFFETTBill and Melinda as well have actually done very big and important things in terms of getting countries to work together in the health field. And they have brought the world closer together in terms of attacking particularly vaccines, but a number of things to do with health. And over time, that sort of thing will prevail in the world. I mean, when people see something working and their lives greatest better, and you mentioned the problem of the prosperity, I mean, if countries get far more prosperous, they should figure out a way that all of their citizenry participate in some way. You want to keep the market system – does wonders and all of that. But you have seen what you can actually look at what Bill and Melinda have done. And they have influenced other countries to act cooperatively. And it's a tremendous achievement.

贝基·奎克你们几位在慈善上的投入都极其惊人,已捐出了数十上百亿美元。但是,如果一定要你找一个领域、一个议题、一个你认为得到的资助依然不足的地方,除了你们已在用自己的钱、用基金会资金投入的领域之外,有没有一个你会说“嘿,还有件事需要更多资金,它被忽视了,而且极值得投入”的领域?比尔,你怎么看?

BECKY QUICKYou all have been incredibly philanthropic. You've given billions and billions of dollars away. But if you had to look and try and find one arena, one topic, one place that you think gets underserved, aside from what you're already doing with your own money, with the foundation money, is there an area where you would look and say, "Hey, here's another thing that needs some additional funding. It's overlooked and it's very deserving"? Bill, what do you think?

比尔·盖茨嗯,世界上有太多重要的事业。你知道,我们选择了全球健康和教育领域。通过在这些领域形成专长,你可以把事情做得很好。然而,需求确实极为庞大。有些慈善家正在美国司法系统内开展工作,以解决那里的不平等问题。我们在贫困方面也做了一些工作,但还有很多其他人对此有不同的切入角度。你知道,慈善的美妙之处就在于,你接手的这些社会目标极其极其难以实现,而你是在努力向政府展示如何才能做得更好。所以,这件事一直很有意义。也取得了长足的进步。但事业实在太多了。就像沃伦和我鼓励其他人投身慈善一样,我们希望他们能选择一个尚未被充分满足的领域,对其产生热忱,并把他们当年在商业中练就的那些技能带过来——因为这一点的重要性或许极其重大,甚至远超金钱本身。

BILL GATESWell, there are so many important causes out there. You know, we picked global health and education. And by sort of specializing in those, you can do a good job. But-- the-- the needs are-- are really vast. Some philanthropists are working in the U.S. Justice System-- to deal with the inequities there. We do some work on poverty, but there's many others-- who have different cuts on that. You know, the beauty of philanthropy is you're taking on-- you know, these social-- goals-- that are very, very difficult to achieve and trying to show government how to do-- a better job. And so it's been rewarding. There's a lotta progress. But there're so many causes. And-- as Warren and I encourage other people to do philanthropy, you know, we hope they'll pick-- one of these unmet areas and get a passion for it and bring their same skills they had in business-- because that's-- huge probably rather, even beyond the money.

贝基·奎克你指的是通过“捐赠誓言”计划吧,你们——

BECKY QUICKYou're talking about through the giving pledge, where you--

比尔·盖茨通过——最理想的情况,是通过“捐赠誓言”。我的意思是,我们会坐下来跟人们谈论慈善。而其中大多数人最终确实都会加入这个誓言。

BILL GATESThrough-- ideally, through the giving pledge. I mean, we sit and talk to people about philanthropy. And most of those people do end up -- joining the pledge.

贝基·奎克查理,你呢?什么领域——

BECKY QUICKCharlie, how about you? What-- area –

查理·芒格嗯,更好的药物和器械自有其优势。它们几乎能自动发挥作用。而在我看来,有一个将改变世界的发明,就是新型宫内节育器,这是对人类文明的巨大贡献。它正势不可挡地普及开。它将改变很多人的生活。这件事的美妙之处在于,它不需要任何政府,不需要任何自负的官僚机构。他们只是发明了一种更好的方法,它就自动传播开了。我喜欢这类东西。当然,我也推崇疫苗接种。想想看,推行疫苗接种能带来多大的好处啊。而且,当然,如果你接种了而我不接种,效果就没那么好了。所以各国自然地会展开合作。不过,比尔在这方面能争取到的合作,会比沃伦多。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, better drugs and devices have the advantage. They work almost automatically. And the one I see-- that will change the world is the new IUD is a huge contribution to human civilization. And it's just sweeping. It'sand it's gonna change-- that's gonna change lives. And the beauty of that, it didn't require any government, didn't require any pompous bureaucracy. S-- they just invented a better way of doing it and it spreads automatically. We-- I love that kinda thing. And, of course, I like the vaccinations. Think of the good that it does to do the vaccinations. And, of course, if you vaccinate and I don't, it doesn't work as well. So naturally, the nations cooperate. But Bill's gonna get more cooperation than Warren is.

贝基·奎克为什么?

BECKY QUICKBecause?

查理·芒格他……他那边能让人们同意比尔的激励更强。沃伦所对抗的那些利益集团 根本不会喜欢他这么做。

CHARLIE MUNGERHe-- has more incentive for the people to be-- agree with Bill. Warren's taking -- interests aren't gonna like it at all.

贝基·奎克比尔,很快问一下,在我们请沃伦谈谈这个问题之前——正好说到这些疫苗,你能给我们介绍一下目前脊髓灰质炎的最新情况吗?

BECKY QUICKBill, very quickly, before we go to Warren on this-- can you give us an update on where polio stands right now, just speaking of these vaccinations?

比尔·盖茨嗯,我们还有两个国家尚未消灭脊髓灰质炎,那就是巴基斯坦和阿富汗。我们正在确保它不会传播到世界其他地区。所以我们必须把疫苗接种率保持住。而且,我们在这两个国家对所有儿童进行接种的工作也做得更好了。如果运气好的话,今年可能是最后一年出现病例。但这非常艰难。你知道,我每天早上起来都要看看,好,病例数现在是什么情况?我们实际上还会对污水进行采样检测,看是否有任何脊髓灰质炎病毒在传播。所以我们已非常接近终点。但零才是那个神奇的数字。如果你没能达到零,那么,你知道,就得再花一年时间。所以我们只能祈祷好运了。

BILL GATESWell, we have two countries that we haven't gotten rid of polio and it's-- Pakistan and Afghanistan. We're making sure it doesn't travel to other parts of the world. So we have to keep the vaccination rates up. And-- we're doing a better job getting out to all the children in those two countries. So with luck, this could be the last year with cases. But it's very tough. You know, it's-- every morning I get up and see, okay, what-- does the case count look like? And we actually sample the sewage to see if there's any-- polio being transmitted. So we're very close. But zero's the magic number. If you miss it then, you know, you have to go another year. So we've-- we've got our fingers crossed.

贝基·奎克你们做污水采样的原因是——?

BECKY QUICKThe reason that you sample sewer-- samples is because --?

比尔·盖茨很不可思议,如果一个孩子得了脊髓灰质炎,而且他就在那座城市里,只要你去查污水,里面——哪怕是来自一个孩子的病毒量也非常大,大到我们足以检测出来。我们还能看出它近似哪种病毒。这样我们就能确定它源自哪里。所以这实际上是我们最好的工具,我们把它客气地称为环境采样。

BILL GATESAmazingly, if a kid has polio and they're in that city, if you go look in the sewage, there-- there're so many viruses-- out of even a single kid, that we can detect it. And we can see which virus it's like. And so we can understand where it came from. So that's actually our best tool, is that-- we politely say environmental sampling.

沃伦·巴菲特这下你该明白我为什么把慈善事务委托出去了。我——我对污水采样的冲动一直没那么——

WARREN BUFFETTYou could see why I delegate philanthropy. I-- my-- urge to sample sewage has not been--

比尔·盖茨我们又回到——

BILL GATESWe're back--

沃伦·巴菲特我都活到 87 岁了,从没有过丝毫冲动——丝毫去对污水采样的冲动。比尔倒是对此热情高涨。

WARREN BUFFETTI've gotten to 87 without any urge -- any urge to sample sewage. Bill gets excited about it.

查理·芒格嗯,比尔·盖茨有一个巨大的优势。没有人支持小儿麻痹症。而很多人支持做适得其反的医疗实践。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, Bill Gates has-- a huge advantage. Nobody's in favor of infantile paralysis. And a lotta people are in favor of medical practice as counterproductive.

贝基·奎克虽然——疫苗接种并非稳操胜券。你们遇到过麻烦——来自一些文化——他们不喜欢你们介入,还有一些接种工作人员也遇到了大麻烦。

BECKY QUICKAlthough-- it's not a slam dunk for the vaccinations. You've had trouble-- with some cultures-- who don't like you coming in there and some vaccination workers who have gotten into big trouble too.

比尔·盖茨嗯,关于疫苗会有谣言——甚至在美国——比如这对孩子有好处吗?如果你的孩子之后发烧了,人们就会担心。所以你必须不断提醒人们疫苗有多有益。而且,每隔一段时间,当接种覆盖率下降时,你就会看到很多麻疹或百日咳卷土重来。所以,了解情况的人确实很需要这些东西。进展是惊人的。但为了实现我们的目标,我们既要创造供给,也要创造需求。

BILL GATESWell, you get rumors about vaccines-- even in the U.S.-- that is this good for the child if you s-- have a child that gets a fever afterwards, people worry about that. So you have to constantly remind people of how beneficial it is. And-- every once in a while, when you-- coverage rates go down, then you'll get lots of measles-- or pertussis-- coming in. So-- y-- t-- people who understand really want these things. And the progress has been phenomenal. But we have to create demand as well as supply to meet our goals.

贝基·奎克沃伦,我想回到你这里,就找一个你认为重要的事业而言,也许你希望别人会花些时间在上面。

BECKY QUICKWarren, I wanna come back to you just in terms of-- finding a cause that you think is important, that you maybe hope somebody else will-- spend some time on.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我认为人类的第一号问题是大规模杀伤性武器。我是说,自 1945 年以来,我们已经了解到——心怀恶意的个人、心怀恶意的组织,或者偶尔,心怀恶意的政府——如何杀死数百万人的知识已经存在。而且,在某些情况下,意图也可能存在。在核武器方面,材料在某种程度上很难获取,而现在网络因素又加入了进来。所以我认为那是人类的第一号问题。我不知道如何特别地用钱来对抗它。但我相信女性有权决定如何处理自己的身体。这方面已经取得了相当大的进展,但还有大量工作要做。但我认为,在美国,仅次于大规模杀伤性武器的第一号问题是,找出如何保持市场体系的所有好处——这个体系在持续创造更多产出方面运作得极为出色。与此同时,确保那些确实不太适应市场体系的人,仍然能过上体面的生活。我们有资源做到这一点。我们在这方面已经取得了很大进步。社会保障就是进步。我的意思是,我们更好地照顾了年轻人和老年人。但我们还没有找到一种方法,来很好地照顾那些不适应市场体系,但却是完全正派的公民的人。一个富裕的社会应该解决这个问题。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think the number one problem of mankind is weapons of mass destruction. I mean, we have learned since 1945-- how somebody with bad intent or some organization with bad intent or m-- occasionally, some government with bad intent, the-- knowledge is there of how to-- kill millions of people. And-- in some cases, the intent might be there. The materials have been hard in the case of nuclear to some extent, and now you've added cyber to the equation. So that's the n-- I consider that the number one problem of mankind. I'm-- I don't how to use money to fight it-- particularly. And-- but then I believe in-- in-- in-- in-- in women having the right to decide-- what to do with their bodies. And that's been-- advanced very considerably. But there's-- still a lot of work to be done there. But-- I believe the number one problem to get beyond weapons of mass destruction in the United States is to figure out-- how to maintain all the benefits of a market system works-- which works wondrously in creating more output all of the time. And-- at the same time, make sure that people-- that are-- really don't fit a market system very well, still lead des-- l-- live decent lives. And-- we've got the resources to do it. And-- we've made a lotta progress on that. Social Security was progress. I mean, we-- we take better care of our young and old. But we don't-- we haven't figured out the way to take some-- very good care of somebody that just doesn't fit into the market system but is a perfectly decent citizen. And a rich society should-- solve that one.

贝基·奎克安德鲁也有一个问题。安德鲁?

BECKY QUICKAndrew has a question as well. Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金我没有一个严肃的问题,贝基。我有一个希望是个有趣的问题,给各位。这实际上是周末从一位现场观众那里来的问题,沃伦,他叫亚历克西斯·奥哈尼安,是 Reddit 的首席执行官。他也是塞雷娜·威廉姆斯的丈夫。他非常希望我们问这个问题,所以我来问你们。顺便说一句,比尔·盖茨已经被问过这个问题了。这是 Reddit 上他们做“你问我任何问题”活动时的一个著名问题。这是一个有点逻辑链条的问题。问题是这样的,我不知道你是否听过。你愿意和一只马那么大的鸭子打,还是和一百只鸭子那么大的马打?互联网上对这个问题的正确答案有巨大的争议。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINI don't have a serious question, Becky. I have-- a hopefully fun question for the-- for the bunch. This is actually a question-- Warren, that came in over the weekend-- from a guy who was in the audience, Alexis Ohanian, who's the CEO of Reddit. He's also the husband of Serena Williams. He was desperate for us to ask this question so I'm gonna ask of you. Bill Gates has, by the way, already been asked this question. It's a famous question on Reddit-- in these Ask Me Anything-- sessions that they do. It's a bit of a logic train-- question. So the question is this, and I don't know if -- you've ever heard it. Would you want to battle a – one horse sized duck or 100 duck sized horses? And there's huge debate on the internet about what the right answer is to this question.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,你找错地方了,这里找不到答案。我会去买一群符合这个条件的鸭子和一群符合条件的马,然后做一个真实的演示。但我对这个问题没有任何见解。比尔可能已经知道答案了。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, you've gone to the wrong place to find the answer. I'll-- I will-- go out and buy a bunch of ducks that meet the test and horses that meet the test and we'll have a real life illustration. But-- I do not bring any insight into that one. Bill probably knows the answer already.

查理·芒格我的态度是,沃伦比我知道的多。

CHARLIE MUNGERMy attitude is that Warren knows more about it than I do.

贝基·奎克嘿,我问你们一个问题——这个问题这个周末居然没人问到,我有点意外。你们都是如饥似渴的读者。通常,总有人在股东大会上问你们最近在读什么。我就直接把这个问题抛出来吧。比尔,你经常有一份自己正在读的书单。今年——哪些书上了你的书单?

BECKY QUICKHey, I'll ask you guys a question that I was surprised didn't come up this weekend. You all are voracious readers. And-- generally, somebody will ask you guys at the-- at the annual meeting what you've been reading recently. Let me just toss that out. Bill, you constantly have a list of what you've been reading. Have-- what-- makes it this year?

比尔·盖茨嗯,最推荐的是汉斯·罗斯林的新书《事实真相》。它非常易读。讲述了世界是如何变化的,汉斯分享了他如何有一些误解,没有看到所有的进步。它告诉你如何思考新闻以及我们未来的方向。所以那本书非常出色。

BILL GATESWell, the-- the top would be this new Hans Rosling book called Factfulness. It's very readable. Talks about how the world has changed and Hans shares how he had some misperceptions that he didn't see all the progress. And I-- talks to you about how to-- how to think about-- news and where we're going. So that's-- brilliant.

贝基·奎克查理?

BECKY QUICKCharlie?

查理·芒格我读了一位曾在世界银行工作过的中国经济学家写的书。他的总体观点是,我们在帮助贫困国家发展方面已经学得更好了。早期我们给一些非常贫穷落后的国家建大型钢厂,那真是愚蠢透顶。当然,根本行不通。我觉得这位经济学家说得对。所以总的来说,这个世界上很多事都在往对的方向走。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I read a book by a Chinese-- economist who had worked in the World Bank. And his general idea was that we had learned better how to help a poor nation develop. There was a lotta stupidity in the early days when we'd give some very poor and backward nation a big steel plant. Of course, it wouldn't work. And-- I think this economist was right. So I think generally speaking-- there's a lot that's right in the world.

贝基·奎克嗯哼。沃伦,你最近读了什么让你注意的东西吗?

BECKY QUICKUh-huh. Warren, have you been reading anything lately that's caught your attention?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯——有——但我想说得再具体点。我已经推荐过《聪明的投资者》第八章了,这本书多年来一直是畅销书。不过本着同样的精神,我再推荐一下史蒂芬·平克新书的第四章。那一章里有一些非常有趣的理由,让人对世界感到乐观。

WARREN BUFFETTWell-- yeah-- but I- narrow it down a little bit more. I've already recommended chapter eight, you know, of The Intelligent Investor, and-- which stays up there among the top sellers-- for years. But so in that same spirit, I would re-- re-- recommend reading chapter four of-- Steven Pinker's new-- book. And-- there're some very interesting reasons to be optimistic ab-- about the world in-- in-- in-- in that chapter.

贝基·奎克那一章聚焦什么?

BECKY QUICKWhat does it focus in on?

沃伦·巴菲特对。比尔,告诉他们那本书的名字——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Tell 'em the name of the book, Bill--

比尔·盖茨那章叫“渐进式恐惧”(Progressive Phobias),书名叫《当下的启蒙》(Enlightenment Now)。这跟罗什林那本书一样,讲的是我们已经取得的进步,以及如何从进步更快的地方学习。它源于他上一本书《人性中的善良天使》的研究,那本书里他发现暴力在下降。现在他又研究了很多其他东西,比如工作场所安全、幸福感。这本书读起来比很多书更严肃,但非常棒。

BILL GATESIt's called Progressive Phobias, the chapter name. And the book is called Enlightenment Now. It's another book like the Rosling book that talks about the progress we've made and how we could learn from the places we've made even faster progress. It came outta the work he did in his previous book-- Better Angels of our Nature, where he saw that violence was going down. And now he's looked at a lot of other things-- like workplace safety and happiness. And-- it's-- a more serious read-- than a lot of books, but really fantastic.

贝基·奎克我们之前和查理、沃伦聊过他们从彼此身上学到了什么。在你们即将结束这一个小时的时候,我想问你们每个人,从伯克希尔这个大整体上学到了什么?作为董事会成员,作为一起旅行、一起工作、一起玩乐、共度时光的人。这些年它意味着什么?比尔,我先从你开始,因为你还没机会谈这个。你从查理、沃伦以及整个董事会身上学到了什么?

BECKY QUICKWe-- we've-- spoken a little bit with Charlie and Warren about what they've learned from each other. I'll ask each of you as we're wrapping up this hour what you've learned from Berkshire-- broadly. As board members, as-- people who travel together, who work together, who have fun together and spend time together. Just what it's meant over the years. Bill, I'll go ahead and start with you because you haven't gotten to weigh in on this yet. Something you've learned from-- Charlie and or Warren and-- the-- board at large.

比尔·盖茨从沃伦身上,我学到了逻辑思考、长远思考的整套方法。这是一次不可思议的教育。它完全塑造了我思考问题的方式。而且,还有查理这样的了不起的人,以及那些经理人,我都有机会接触到。我们的第二次董事会会议,一大批经理人进来谈他们的业务。那是一年中最有意思的时刻之一,听他们讲各种各样的生意、竞争动态、技术如何影响它们。还有这套系统:一群伟大的长期思考者,有着极高的诚信,应对这些挑战。所以,我的整个商业教育,从见到沃伦那天就开始了。伯克希尔团队让这股势头一直高速持续。

BILL GATESWell, from Warren-- the whole approach to thinking logically-- thinking long-term. It's been an incredible education. And totally shaped how-- I think about things. The fact that then there's this incredible set of people including Charlie and the managers that I've gotten exposed to-- we have in our second board meeting, a bunch of man-- the managers come in and talk about their businesses. And it's one of the most fun times of the year to hear about very different businesses and the competitive dynamics and how technology affects them. And how a system where you have these great long term thinkers with very high integrity who are dealing with these-- challenges. So, you know, my whole business education-- started the day I met Warren. And-- the Berkshire team has-- has helped keep it going at full speed.

贝基·奎克沃伦?

BECKY QUICKWarren?

沃伦·巴菲特人生中很重要的一件事是跟比你优秀的人相处。这是最重要的决定之一——你交往的人会影响你的方向。你会从他们那里获得想法,看到他们的行为方式如何起作用,诸如此类。这方面最重要的决定通常是你的配偶。但在朋友中也极其重要,你要既有钦佩的人,又能和他们一起享受很多乐趣。你会朝着他们更好的行为方式前进。和比尔、查理在一起,我学到了很多,也享受了巨大的乐趣。我从他们那里汲取想法,这真是件好事。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's very important in life to associate with people that are better than you are. And it's the most important decision -- you will go in the direction of the people that you associate with. And you'll get ideas from them and you'll see how their behavior works and all of that sort of thing. And the most important decision usually in that respect-- is your spouse. But it's enormously important among your friends to have people that you admire as well as have a lot of fun with. And you will move in the direction of their better behavior. And-- -- with both-- Bill and Charlie, I-- I've learned a lot, I've had an enormous amount of fun. But I pick up on their ideas. And-- that's been a very good thing.

贝基·奎克查理,今天这个话题我想让你做最后总结。

BECKY QUICKCharlie, I'd like to have you have the last word today on that topic.

查理·芒格今年我看着下面伯克希尔的经理们说:“这个房间的好处是,我们都很放心,随便从这群人里挑一个把孩子托付给他。”在大多数地方你没法这么说。我敢说,很多地方都在争权夺利、争名争位。但我们有一群非常值得敬佩的人。我们的官僚主义比几乎任何公司都少。这可不是个小成就。我想不出任何一家跟我们规模相当的公司,官僚主义比我们更少。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I said to the Berkshire managers this year as I looked out over the crowd, "The nice thing about this room is that we would all feel pretty safe just delivering our children to almost anybody selected at random from the group." You couldn't say that at most places. I should say there's a horserace for power and prominence or something or other. So we have a very admirable bunch of people. And we have less bureaucracy than almost anybody. And so that is not a small achievement. I don't think of a single-- I can't think of a single company of our size that has less bureaucracy than we do.

贝基·奎克你们一开始就有意这么做吗?

BECKY QUICKDid you set out to do that at the beginning?

查理·芒格我们向来厌恶官僚主义。所以从某种意义上说,是的。你不也这么认为吗,沃伦?

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we always hated bureaucracy. And so I would say, in a sense, yes. Wouldn't you say, Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特当然,绝对如此。不,我们俩都——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, absolutely. No, we both--

查理·芒格我们都讨厌它。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe both hated it.

沃伦·巴菲特而且我们有能力——或者说运气好——在某种程度上,我们能创建我们想要的公司。我一直说,画家如果最后画出来的不是自己想要的那幅画,那就是疯了。伯克希尔就像一幅画。我们不是走进一个庞大组织,必须爬过那些晋级和勾心斗角。我们创造了自己想创造的东西。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd we had the ability-- or-- you know, were fortunate. We could create the company, to some extent, that we wanted to have. And I've always said it was crazy to be a painter painting something at the end you didn't-- it's not the painting you wanted to have. And Berkshire is a sort of painting. And we have ha-- we haven't walked into some huge organization, had to claw through the progressions and the politics that went. And we have created what we wanted to create.

贝基·奎克沃伦——

BECKY QUICKWarren--

查理·芒格我觉得我们没法修好一个庞大的官僚机构。

CHARLIE MUNGERI don't think we could fix a big bureaucracy.

沃伦·巴菲特不行,我们做不到。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, we couldn't. No.

查理·芒格我们——能创造一个不会变成庞大官僚机构的东西。但我们没法修好一个——

CHARLIE MUNGERWe-- could create something that didn't become a big bureaucracy. But we-- we couldn't fix one--

沃伦·巴菲特不行。

WARREN BUFFETTNo.

查理·芒格——已经官僚化的机构。

CHARLIE MUNGER--that's already bureaucratic.

贝基·奎克查理、沃伦、比尔,感谢三位今天抽出时间。我们非常感谢。各位,今天的节目到此结束。请记得明天继续收看。接下来是《华尔街直击》。关于 CNBC:CNBC 在美国、亚太、欧洲、中东和非洲以及 CNBC 全球频道,作为公认的全球商业新闻领导者,向全球超过 4.09 亿户家庭提供实时金融市场报道和商业资讯,其中包括美国和加拿大的逾 9100 万户家庭。CNBC 还向中国 4 亿户家庭提供每日商业资讯。该频道在北美工作日每天播出 15 小时直播商业节目(东部时间凌晨 4:00 至晚 7:00),节目在位于新泽西州恩格尔伍德克利夫斯的 CNBC 全球总部制作,并涵盖 CNBC 全球各地记者站发回的报道。CNBC 晚间时段则融合了多档全新真人秀、为 CNBC 独家制作的多部高人气系列节目以及一批独具特色的内部纪录片。CNBC 还拥有庞大的数字产品矩阵,通过多种平台提供实时金融市场新闻与资讯,包括:CNBC.com;CNBC PRO,一款高级集成桌面/移动端服务,可实时收看 CNBC 节目,提供独家视频内容以及全球市场数据与分析;一系列 CNBC 移动产品,涵盖适用于 iOS、Android 和 Windows 设备的 CNBC 各款应用;以及适用于 Apple Watch 和 Apple TV 的 CNBC 应用等其他产品。媒体从业者可前往 NBCUniversal Media Village 网站 http://www.nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc 了解关于 CNBC 及其节目的更多信息。如需进一步了解 NBCUniversal,请访问 http://www.NBCUniversal.com。有需要保密的新闻线索吗?我们希望收到您的来信。还可注册免费通讯,将更多 CNBC 资讯直接送达您的邮箱。订阅即可获取上述信息,同时了解更多产品和服务详情。© 2026 Versant Media, LLC. 保留所有权利。Versant Media 旗下公司。数据为实时快照 *数据延迟至少 15 分钟。

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