2026 年股东会现场专访

2026-05-02 · AI 与深度伪造 · 原文约 4142 词
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今天,2026 年 5 月 2 日,星期六

WHEN: Today, Saturday, May 2, 2026

地点CNBC。以下为 CNBC 于 2026 年伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会期间,在今日(2026 年 5 月 2 日星期六)对伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长沃伦·巴菲特所做采访的非官方文字记录。以下为 CNBC.com 上的视频链接:https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-berkshire-hathaway-chair-warren-buffett.html,https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/warren-buffetts-message-to-shareholders-and-partners-follow-the-golden-rule.html,https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/warren-buffett-on-deepfakes-artificial-intelligence-we-dont-know-whats-going-to-happen.html,以及 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/warren-buffett-tells-cnbc-its-not-the-ideal-environment-to-invest-berkshires-record-cash-hoard.html。所有引用均须注明来源为 CNBC。

WHERECNBC Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett today, Saturday, May 2, during the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. Following are links to video on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-berkshire-hathaway-chair-warren-buffett.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/warren-buffetts-message-to-shareholders-and-partners-follow-the-golden-rule.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/warren-buffett-on-deepfakes-artificial-intelligence-we-dont-know-whats-going-to-happen.html, and https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/02/warren-buffett-tells-cnbc-its-not-the-ideal-environment-to-invest-berkshires-record-cash-hoard.html. All references must be sourced to CNBC.

贝基·奎克我们现在和沃伦·巴菲特坐在一起,他是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长。60 年来,他还是头一回坐在台下,而不是台上,观看这一切。沃伦,你知道,去年这个时候,你出人意料地宣布将辞去首席执行官一职。转眼一年过去,眼下就是这样了。你怎么看?

BECKY QUICKWe are sitting down right now with Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who, for the first time in 60 years, has been watching all of this from the audience instead of being on stage. And you know, last year at this time, Warren, you surprised everyone with the announcement that you were stepping down as CEO. Fast forward a year, and here we are. What do you think?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得一切都在顺利运转。一切都在顺利运转。就伯克希尔的现金配置而言,我得说,我们周边的氛围或环境并不是最理想的,但在管理团队找对人、制度安排做对这件事上,我们可以自主选择时机,没人能对我们指手画脚。所以,有时候我们什么都没做,但其他时候又会相当积极。我是说,

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think it's all working. It's all working. It isn't our ideal surrounding area or environment, I should say, in terms of deploying cash for Berkshire, but in terms of how we got the right management, we got the right arrangement, and you know, we can pick our spots, and nobody can tell us what to do exactly. And so sometimes we're doing nothing, but other times we get quite active. I mean,

贝基·奎克你知道,阿吉特今天在台上讲了不少,说他做保险的一条诀窍就是在该什么都不做的时候——

QUICKYou know, Ajit spent some time on the stage today talking about how one of his keys is to do nothing when it –

沃伦·巴菲特正是如此。

BUFFETTAbsolutely.

贝基·奎克——什么都不做,这跟你们一直说的要不要投资的道理,是一回事。

QUICK– comes to insurance, when it comes to writing insurance, which is the same thing that you have always talked about with whether to invest or not.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,这世上到处都有人追着你,要你干这干那。问题在于,要从中找到一个你确实知道能成立的机会。可能外面有 20 个能成的机会,但你不懂,那就别碰。

BUFFETTYeah, the world is full of people that are offering you things to do. And then the question, is to – find one that you know makes sense, and there may be 20 out there that make sense, that you don't understand, and you just leave them alone.

贝基·奎克你说目前的世界或者说周围环境不太理想。我猜,这跟手上那将近 4000 亿美元的现金有关——尽管格雷格花了些力气说明,实际账面现金更像是 3800 亿美元——

QUICKYou said that the world or the surrounding environment is not ideal. And I guess that points to the idea that there's almost $400 billion in cash on hand, although Greg took some pains to show it's really more like $380 billion in cash on hand –

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,是啊——

BUFFETTWell, yeah –

贝基·奎克——但公司就是手握大量现金,而你也还在积极管理投资组合,盯着股票看。到处看看,却没多少你想投的东西。

QUICK– but that there's a lot of cash on hand, and you're still active in managing the portfolio too, and looking at stocks. You're looking around and you don't see a lot that you want to invest in.

巴菲特那样的话,我们就什么也不做。我是说,我入行已经 60 年了,大概只有 5 年算得上机会绝佳。我记得 IBM 的老托马斯·沃森说过——有人问他 IBM 为什么这么成功之类的问题——他说,我有些聪明的想法,就守着那些想法不放,就这么回事。IBM 当时涉足三个不同行当,包括考勤钟什么的——三个里头有两个后来证明不行,但——他们就专注在剩下的那一个上。

BUFFETTWell, then we don't do anything. I mean, we've been – up to 60 years I've been in the business. Probably five of them really juicy. And I think it was Tom Watson Sr. of IBM that said they asked him the reason why IBM had been so successful, or something like that, and he said, I'm smart of spots, and I stay around those spots, and that's the whole thing. And IBM was in three different businesses, including time clocks and a couple – and two of the three turned out to be no good, but – so they just focused on the one.

贝基·奎克你四处看下来,具体是什么感觉——是不是眼下价格确实太高了?

QUICKWhat is it when you look around that – it's just prices are too high at this point?

沃伦·巴菲特是。

BUFFETTYeah.

贝基·奎克我猜肯定有一些——格雷格在台上也说了,有些公司你们挺喜欢的——

QUICKI would imagine there are – Greg said this from the stage too, there are businesses that you liked –

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个嘛——

BUFFETTYeah, well –

贝基·奎克——唯独不是这个价格。

QUICK– just not these prices.

巴菲特而且我得说,我在所有公司中能看懂的生意占比,比十年前更低了。我已经有些年头没有去学习新行业了,所以在这件事上我不自欺欺人。我不打算去学它们。对那些伴随着这些行业长大、用过相关产品、亲眼见证过一切的年轻人,我是占不到优势的。不过——正如我提到过的,你不需要弄懂太多公司,只要它们像苹果那样就行。

BUFFETTAnd I would say, I understand fewer of the businesses as a percentage of the whole than I did 10 years ago. I have not learned new industries for some years. And so I don't kid myself on that. I'm not going to learn them. I'm not going to have an edge on a whole bunch of younger people that have actually grown up with them, used the product, seen things, but – well, as I mentioned, you know, you don't have to understand too many if they're like Apple.

贝基·奎克但话说回来,我们先聊聊宏观层面的看法吧,因为我不确定这件事本身是不是格雷格会直接点评的。单看宏观股市环境,你感觉如何?贵吗?还是觉得某些地方依然存在机会?

QUICKBut looking around, let's just get some macro thoughts on this, because I don't know that this is something that that Greg is going to comment on, per se, just looking at the macro stock market environment, what does this feel like to you? Is – does it feel expensive? Does it feel like there are opportunities in some places?

巴菲特嗯,感觉嘛,你知道的,我一直把市场比作一座附带赌场的教堂。人们可以在教堂和赌场之间来回走动。我的看法是,现在教堂里的人更多了,赌场里的人也更满了,但赌场对人们的吸引力已经变得极强。你要是玩一天期的期权,不管是买入还是卖出,那都不是投资,也不是投机,纯粹是赌博,彻头彻尾的赌博。没人能解释清楚为什么要买一天期的期权,除非是那个靠提前知道我们何时挺进委内瑞拉而赚了几十万美元的家伙。但我要说的是,那类交易的规模已经大到不可思议。所以,人们的赌兴之浓,从未像现在这么高涨。但这也不意味着投资这行就糟糕透顶了。它确实意味着,大量资产的价格会显得极其荒唐。我的意思是,会出现逼空行情,然后就连 Avis 这种公司都能被炒起来,真是的。对吧,Avis 已经存在了 50 年,但就在过去这一周——而且尽管我们现在的监管规定比以前多得多,人们却把时间花在琢磨怎么绕开规则上,而不是遵守规则。这本身就是个挑战。

BUFFETTWell, it feels like, you know, I've compared the markets to a church with a casino attached. And people can move between the church and casino. And I would say there are more people in the church and more people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive to people. If you're buying one day options, or selling them, I mean that is – that's not investing, it's not speculating, it's gambling. Just totally. There's nobody that can explain why they're buying an option for one day, unless they maybe the fellow that made the 400 and some thousand dollars from knowing when we were going into Venezuela can do it. But I mean, that's for – and the quantity of those things is just incredible. So we've never had people in a more gambling mood than now. But that doesn't mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly. I mean, they have a squeeze, and then Avis of all things. Well, Avis has been around for 50 years, but just this past week – and we have lots more regulation and everything now, but people spend their time figuring out how to get around the rules rather than follow the rules. That's just a challenge.

贝基·奎克不过,你是哪种投资者,你自己早就说明白了。在经商的这 60 年里,你也许只遇到了五个特别丰美的年头。我想这意味着你始终在寻找下一个丰美之年。你觉得,要怎样才算是为你造就了一个丰美之年或丰美的机会?

QUICKThe type of investor you though, is, you laid it out yourself. In the 60 years you've been doing this in the business, you've had maybe five juicy years. I guess that means you're always looking for the next juicy year. What do you think it would take to make a juicy year or a juicy opportunity for you?

巴菲特一通电话就够了。很多——有些时候是这样,但去年的那桩生意规模不够大,不足以产生实质影响,不过我们收到了一封信。

BUFFETTIt's a phone call. In many – in some cases, but the board of business last year wasn't big enough to be meaningful but we got a letter.

贝基·奎克在贝尔实验室?

QUICKAt Bell Labs?

巴菲特对,贝尔实验室。有时候那些机会后面跟着的零就是会更多一些,而我们的体量足以吃下任何规模的生意,我们做决策比谁都快,而且我们说到做到。有很多人干的是倒买倒卖的营生,你要是个好销售,那可就占大便宜了。完全没必要去卖吸尘器什么的,不如去卖股票,赚的钱要多得多。钱就在那里,而且现在市场上的钱比以往任何时候都多。

BUFFETTYeah, Bell Labs. And sometimes there's more zeros attached to them than others, and we're big enough to handle anything, and we can make decisions faster than anybody, and our word is good. There's an awful lot of people that when they –  they're in the business of reselling something, or you know, it's – and it's a lot better if you're a good salesperson. There's no reason to be selling vacuum cleaners or, you know, might as well sell stock. You'll make way more money. It's where the money is, and there's more money around than ever.

贝基·奎克但最好的机会,大概还是出现在宏观环境引发恐慌的时候……

QUICKBut the best opportunities have probably come when the macro environment leads to panic –

巴菲特对,那是最有可能的。嗯,最有可能买进东西的时机,就是当别人都不接电话的时候。你知道,所有人都吹嘘自己的交易部门多厉害,各种夸耀。你去试试便知。有时候,市场崩盘时,他们根本不接电话。就算接了,报买价也是可议价的,报卖价也是可议价的,而且买卖价差极大,然后他们还会利用从你那里套到的交易意图,去别的地方把你活活吃掉。我是说,真就跟进屠宰场一样。我是说,那之后你好一阵子都不会想吃热狗了。

BUFFETTThat's the most likely, yeah. Well, the most likely time to buy things is when nobody else will answer their phones. You know, everybody else talks about their wonderful trading departments and everything. Just try them out. Sometimes, when markets are collapsing, they don't answer the phones. And if they do, the bids are subject and the offers are subject and the spread is wide, and they'll use the information they get from you about what you want to do to go out and kill you some other way. I mean, it's really like going to a slaughterhouse. I mean, you know, you don't feel like eating hot dogs for a while.

贝基·奎克我想我真正想问的是,你有没有看到哪里正在酝酿类似的情形,可能导致那种时刻——也就是某种市场恐慌——再度出现?

QUICKI guess what I'm trying to get at is, do you see the circumstances building up anywhere that could lead to a time like that again, any sort of panic in the market?

巴菲特当然有。

BUFFETTSure.

贝基·奎克你觉得在哪里?

QUICKWhere do you see them?

巴菲特嗯,如果连你都能看见,那它们就不会发生了。

BUFFETTWell, if you saw them, then they wouldn't happen.

贝基·奎克好吧。

QUICKOkay.

巴菲特我是说,什么样的情况都有可能——人们整天挂在嘴边讨论的那些事,你不必担心。总是会有些事突然冒出来,但确实会有事突然冒出来。我的意思是,核弹也可能突然冒出来。

BUFFETTI mean, you've got all kinds –  you don't worry about what people are talking about can happen. It's something that comes out of the blue, but something will come out of the blue. I mean, a nuclear bomb could come out of the blue.

贝基·奎克嗯,但愿如此吧。

QUICKWell, let's knock on wood on that.

巴菲特嗯,担心根本没用。它不会——这就是关键。就拿一战来说吧,大公被刺杀,然后 1914 年之类的,战争就爆发了。生活中的事情就是这样。如果某件事是人们正在谈论、正在思考的,那它就不会发生。但有些事会毫无征兆地发生,说实话,用“从天而降”这个词来形容现在特别贴切,因为我们不知道明天会发生什么。我不喜欢跟人这么说话,不管是对你还是对别人,因为担心这种事对你有什么好处呢?我觉得担心一点好处都没有。意识到它存在是好的,但担心就太糟糕了。我不喜欢——我甚至不想让别人产生这种心态,我不想去跟他们说“末日要来了”。末日要来了,或者类似这种话。

BUFFETTWell, it doesn't do any good. It's not going to – that's the point. It was the Arch Duke getting shot, you know, and then 1914 or something like that, for World War One. It just takes everything in life. And if it's something people are talking about and thinking about, it's not going to happen. But there are things that can happen out of the blue, and actually, that's particularly true to use that phraseology now, because the things that can come out of the sky, we don't know what can happen tomorrow. I don't like to talk that way to people, whether it's you or anybody else, I mean, because whether it does you a lot of good to worry about that. I don't think it does do any good to worry about it. I think it's good to be cognizant of it, but the worrying about it is terrible. And I don't like to – I don't like to even cause that belief with people, I don't like to go and tell them the end is coming. The end is coming or something like that.

贝基·奎克昨天有个朋友跟我说,他最近开始用一句话——我不焦躁,我不担忧。这大概是个不错的活法。不过咱们聊聊当下的一些问题。通胀在涨,这是个麻烦。那伯克希尔——伯克希尔的各个生意怎么应对这个?

QUICKA friend told me yesterday, he's recently started using the phrase I don't fret, I don't worry. And that's probably a good way to go about life. But let's talk about some of the issues that are out there right now. Inflation is up. That's an issue. So how does Berkshire – how does Berkshire handle that with its businesses?

巴菲特好吧,我们对付不了失控的通货膨胀,唯一能做的就是别让它找上门来。你看看二战以来经历过恶性通胀的国家数量,在我一生中,多得数不清。一旦通胀失控,整个世界就变了样。德国在第一次世界大战后显然经历过,但还有几十个国家也尝过这个滋味。当然,还有那些破产过六七次的国家。我的意思是,人们在金融市场干出来的事,简直让人目瞪口呆。

BUFFETTWell, we can't handle runaway inflation, except not to be there in the way of it. And if you look at the number of countries that had runaway inflation since World War Two, you know, in my lifetime, it's very large. And once you create that, it becomes a different world. Germany obviously experienced it after World War One, but there are dozens and dozens of countries that have experienced it. And of course, you have countries going bankrupt like six or seven times. I mean, it's just amazing what people do in financial markets.

贝基·奎克那我们现在面对的通货膨胀呢?你知道,不算过度。目前通胀率在 3% 以上。但我们甚至还没回到疫情期间的水平,那时通胀达到了 8% 到 9%——

QUICKWhat about the inflation that we're dealing with right now, which is, you know, not excessive. It's north of 3% at this point. But we're not even back at the levels we were during covid, where we got to eight to 9% –

巴菲特哦,不——

BUFFETTOh no –

贝基·奎克那只是能源价格上涨呢?这会如何沿着产业链传导,你又是怎么应对的?

QUICK– so what about just higher energy prices? How that works through the line and how you handle it?

巴菲特嗯,在沃尔克上任之前,情况已经很接近了。我的意思是,简直就到了“现金是垃圾”的地步。人们对货币失去了信心,他们觉得自己能借 12% 的利息,在农业或类似领域赚到 6%,内布拉斯加州有很多大农场主因此垮掉——因为他们买入的价格超出了盈利能力,他们支付的利率也超出了盈利能力,就是因为他们觉得美元会消失,而土地不会消失。这对很多人来说是场悲剧。如果你是镇上最好的医生或最好的律师,在任何情况下你总能赚到钱——最好的电视主持人也一样,我的意思是,但——对货币丧失信心对一个国家造成的后果,是把它变成了别的东西。

BUFFETTWell, it came close before Volcker. I mean, it was just, it was cash is trash. People were losing faith in the currency, and they felt they could borrow 12%, earn 6% on farming or something like that, and they had huge farmers in this state – Nebraska – collapse because they bought beyond the earning power, they're paying interest rates beyond the earning power just because they felt that the dollar was going to disappear and the land wouldn't disappear. And it's tragic for many people, and if you're the best doctor in town or the best lawyer in town, you'll always make money under any – the best TV personality, I mean it's, but – what not having faith in the money does to a country, it turns it into something else.

贝基·奎克是的。

QUICKYeah.

巴菲特我一直希望美国永远不会走这条路,但我们并非对此免疫。利率上升或下降半个百分点,我们有很大的控制力,但利率上升 50 个百分点这种事,我们可能就控制不了了。

BUFFETTI've always hoped the U.S. never does it, but we are not immune from it happening. We have a lot of control over whether rates may go up a half a point or down a half a point, but what we may have less control over is whether they go up 50 points.

贝基·奎克你一直是杰伊·鲍威尔的支持者。

QUICKYou've long been a supporter of Jay Powell's.

巴菲特一点没错。

BUFFETTExactly.

贝基·奎克就在上周,他主持了作为主席的最后一次 FOMC 会议。他确实说过,在可预见的未来,他会留在美联储继续担任那个职位,部分原因是他所面临的威胁。

QUICKHe had his last FOMC meeting as chairman just this last week. He did say that he's going to be sticking around staying on the Fed, staying in that position for the foreseeable future, in part because of the threats that he's faced.

巴菲特他在的时候,我会比不在的时候感觉好一些。我是说,你知道,沃尔克在那里我就会安心一些。但经济学家们并不擅长这类事情,你知道,翻翻 1950、1970 年代的老经济学教材——保罗·萨缪尔森是个了不起的人,聪明绝顶。他的标准教材用了 25 年。如果你去查零利率,一年又一年,那是一本 900 页的书,里面居然没有这个词条,你知道,我是说,那本该是经济学领域最重要的进展,就它对学生时代读者的影响和一切而言。但真正造成破坏的,正是那些你没想到的东西。

BUFFETTI'll feel better when he's there better than when he's not. I mean, you know, I just felt better when Volcker was there. But you, economists aren't the best this sort of thing, you know, read it in the old economics book from 1950, 1970 that, Paul Samuelson was a terrific guy and smart as hell. He had the standard textbook for 25 years. And if you looked up, you know, zero interest rates, and year after year after year, it was a 900 page book, and there wasn't an entry for it, you know, I mean, it was the most important economic development, I mean, in terms of the impact it would have and everything during the lifetime of the students reading it. But it's what you don't think of that does all the damage.

贝基·奎克我们聊聊伯克希尔旗下一些公司的首席执行官吧。你提到了苹果的蒂姆·库克,而且你认为他干得相当出色。

QUICKLet's talk a little bit about CEOs in some of the Berkshire holdings. You mentioned Apple's Tim Cook and just the phenomenal job you think he's done.

巴菲特不可思议。

BUFFETTIncredible.

贝基·奎克他不是您主要持股公司里唯一一位卸任的 CEO。詹姆斯·昆西最近也从可口可乐卸任了。我们刚刚采访了维基·霍卢布,她宣布退休,辞去西方石油的职位。格雷格提到的一点是,这个投资组合有多么稳定,这些持股公司都是他了解的、管理者也是他熟悉的。现在几家主要持股公司要迎来一些新管理者了。这算问题吗?

QUICKHe's not the only one of your major holding CEOs who's stepped down. James Quincey recently stepped down from Coca-Cola too. And we just spoke with Vicki Hollub who announced that she is retiring and stepping down from that position at Occidental. Part of what Greg's talked about is how stable that portfolio is and and these holdings or companies that he knows, and managers that he did, that he knows. There's going to be some new managers in some of those major holdings coming in. Is that a problem?

巴菲特这个问题在可口可乐身上确实存在了很多年,我还在公司的时候就有。我的意思是,当然,真正出色的公司反而会面临最多问题,因为它会——会——会——会持续下去。我是说,如果你卖的产品人们每天都在买,他们可能在很长一段时间里都做出错误决定。但这是投资中的一个难题。我觉得蒂姆·库克从一开始就非常非常出色,而我们大多数经理在应对较小问题时也都很出色——比如他们无法预判那些压倒性的问题。那是我的工作,或者说现在是格雷格的工作。

BUFFETTWell, it was certainly a problem in Coca-Cola there for a good many years when I was around the company. I mean, sure, it's and you have the most problems with a really good company, because it'll, it'll, it'll, it'll continue. I mean, if you're selling some product that people are buying every day, they make the wrong decision for a long time. But that's one of the problems with investing that, Tim Cook, I felt was very, very good from the start and are, most of our managers are very good at the smaller problems, like they can't anticipate the overwhelming problems. That's my job, or now Greg's job.

贝基·奎克你对自己仍然持有的那些资产感觉良好吗?你有没有见过那些企业的新任管理层?

QUICKDo you feel good about those holdings still? Have you met any of the new managers of those businesses?

巴菲特我还没见过那些老经理——

BUFFETTI haven't met the old managers—

贝基·奎克指的是新上任的 CEO 们将接手的新业务?蒂姆·库克的继任者?

QUICKOf the new businesses of the new CEOs that are coming in? Tim Cook's replacement?

巴菲特哦,是啊,你知道——

BUFFETTOh yeah, you know—

贝基·奎克可口可乐的恩里克。

QUICKHenrique at Coca-Cola.

巴菲特我当然见过贝尔实验室的那些人,我们确实合作过。你知道,我显然见过贝基,我们做了这笔交易,所以我很喜欢和这些人见面,但你在看人上也可能犯错。我是说,看看离婚率就知道了。你知道,这比你是否选对了首席执行官或其他任何事都重要,而且现在你还有多年试错的时间。我是说,在我年轻的时候,你必须做出决定,或者说你不一定非要做决定,但很多人都是在 20 岁或 21 岁时做决定的——

BUFFETTI certainly met the people at Bell Labs that we did. You know, obviously I met Becky, we made the deal and so I enjoy meeting the people, but you can make mistakes with people. I mean look at the divorce rate. You know, that's more important than whether you got the right CEO or anything else, and now you've got years of trial. I mean, back when I was young, you had to make the decision, or you didn't have to make the decision but a good many people made the decision when they were 20 or 21—

贝基·奎克结婚。

QUICKTo get married.

巴菲特是啊,他们结婚了,现在过了五年,还在犯同样的错误。

BUFFETTYeah, they got married and now they spend five years, they still make the same mistakes.

贝基·奎克所以您认为我们的判断力在变差?

QUICKSo you think we're getting worse at our judgment?

巴菲特嗯,我也不知道。也许婚姻前后人们的表现不一样吧,谁知道呢。我只能说,几乎所有人结婚一个月后,都会觉得自己的婚姻要么比预想的好,要么比预想的差。但具体是哪一种,我说不上来。

BUFFETTWell, I don't know. Maybe that people behave differently before the marriage than after, who knows exactly, I would say that almost everybody feels either their marriage is better or worse than they anticipated a month after they were married. But I don't know which.

贝基·奎克沃伦,我们来聊聊深度伪造。这次股东大会一开始出现的那段深度伪造沃伦的视频还挺像样的。有人站起来——格雷格还拿这事开玩笑——但你知道,第一个提问的是一位来自沃伦的观众,他住在奥马哈。你一直很担心这些 AI 深度伪造的问题,以及这对世界意味着什么。

QUICKWarren, let's talk a little bit about deepfakes because the deepfake Warren that popped up early in this session was pretty good. They had somebody standing up, you know, Greg was joking about it, but, you know, the first, the first question went to a guy from Warren up in the rafters, who lives in Omaha. You've been concerned about some of these AI deepfakes, and what that means for the world.

巴菲特是啊,我会担心,要是人人都——其实最糟的情况是出现一位特别高明的模仿者,不管模仿的是哪任总统。我是说,你想想看,以前在新泽西就有过那桩出名的事儿,说火星人来了什么的——

BUFFETTYeah, I would be concerned if everybody was, well, actually, the worst thing would be to have a really good imitator of any president that came along. I mean, just imagine, well yet we had that famous thing before, way back in New Jersey, where they the Martians coming and everything like—

贝基·奎克哦,是奥逊·威尔斯的那部《世界大战》。

QUICKOh, "War of the Worlds" with Orson Welles.

巴菲特但你能做的是——如果你说服别人借钱给你,你本不该借这笔钱——我的意思是,这事很可怕,尤其可怕的是,现在有大约九个拥核国家,还有人在造核武器,甚至更糟。我们还没有处理好这个问题。我们不知道会发生什么。

BUFFETBut what you can do, well, if you convince people to lend you money, you shouldn't be borrowing it, I mean, it's it's scary, and it's particularly scary when you have nine countries or so with nuclear weapons and people working on it, something even more, we haven't dealt with this. We don't know what's going to happen.

贝基·奎克咱们回到伯克希尔和今天的伯克希尔这个话题。我好像昨天或前天跟你说过,我们聊了一点格雷格·阿贝尔这个人,说他真是个好人。

QUICKLet's circle back to Berkshire and the Berkshire of today. I think I was speaking with you yesterday or the day before, and we were talking a little bit about Greg Abel, and what a nice guy he is.

巴菲特他是个非常出色的人。

BUFFETTHe is a terrific guy.

贝基·奎克不过你跟我说过一件有意思的事,关于你选他的原因,并不是因为他是个好人。那你为什么选他?

QUICKYou said something interesting to me though about how you picked him, and it wasn't because he was a nice guy. Why did you pick him?

巴菲特嗯,他对商业的理解极其、极其、极其透彻。顺便说一句,他马上就要拿到加拿大……我是说,他很快就要拿到美国公民身份了,他跟我过了一遍所有需要学习的内容。其实我过去也花过一些时间跟一些群体打交道。当然,我妻子也成了美国公民。他们要学习宪法之类的东西。他们通常都以成为美国公民为傲。我觉得,就连格雷格也是如此——你知道,他在其他方面已经那么成功了,但成为美国公民对他意义重大。他跟他小儿子坐在一起,儿子对他可能会被问到的一些公民入籍问题知道得更多。这真的很有意思。世界上还有哪个地方会发生这种事?我是说,人们……美国很特殊,美国取得的成就简直是个奇迹。绝对就是个奇迹。然而,这个奇迹在产出的分配等方面,却又是你能想到的最不公平的。但同时,它又有着如此强大的吸引力。这里面有某种秘方。我从来没能准确描述过它,但当你管理一个国家两百多年,每年都有人想来到这里——这东西肯定存在。格雷格·阿贝尔非常期待成为美国公民。这对他来说意义重大。这东西在任何地方都买不到,你没法包装它,麦迪逊大道的广告手法也搞不定它,“成为美国人”之类的口号行不通。在我 95 年的生命里,我一次又一次见过这种感受。所以,当格雷格有一天主动告诉我他要去参加公民入籍的最终考试时,我感觉很好。

BUFFETTWell, he's very, very, very smart about businesses. Incidentally, he's getting his Canadian I mean, he's getting his American citizenship here very soon, and he was going over with me all the things he had to learn about. And I've actually spent a little time in the past with groups of individuals. Of course, my wife, too became an American citizenship, American citizen, and the things they have to learn about, the Constitution and all this. And they're usually so proud when they become American citizens. And I think I detected in Greg even, I mean, you know, as successful he's been in everything else, I mean, he is, it means something to him to become an American citizen, and he sits there with his young son, you know, and the son knows more about some of the answers of the questions, you know, that he may get asked, or something about becoming a citizen. It's really interesting. Where else does that happen in the world? I mean, what people, you know, America's special, and it's a miracle what America's accomplished. I mean, it's just an absolute miracle. And yet, the miracle, the division of the output and everything is about as inequitable as you can come up with, while at the same time, it's got these great attractions. There is some secret sauce. Never been able to define it precisely, but when you run a country for 200 and some years, and people want to come here every year, I mean, there's something about it. And what Greg Abel is very, you know, is looking forward to becoming an American citizen. That means something to him. And he can't buy that at any place, they're packaging it or it won't work for Madison Avenue approach, approach, be an American or something like that. But that feeling just goes in my 95 years, I've seen it, you know, time after time, so I felt, I felt good when Greg just volunteered that day or two to me that he was is up there for his final exams on becoming a citizen.

贝基·奎克我还不知道他原来不是双国籍。我知道他是加拿大人,但我以为他有双重国籍。

QUICKI didn't realize he wasn't a dual citizen already. I knew he was Canadian, but I thought he had dual citizenship.

巴菲特他还没完全达到,不管完整的公民身份要求是什么。你可能会问,为什么他那么在意,我是说,他在这儿没有公民身份也过得挺好,一切都好好的。但他还是想成为公民。

BUFFETTHe doesn't have a full, whatever the complete citizenship requirement is and and you can say, why does he care, I mean, he's gotten along fine without it here and everything. He still wants to be a citizen.

贝基·奎克是啊。250 年,我们正在庆祝建国 250 周年。你提到自己见证了其中 95 年。你觉得我们美国还保有那种能继续延续的特殊配方吗?或者,我们需要做些什么来保住它,确保它延续下去?

QUICKYeah. 250 years, we're celebrating our 250th anniversary. You pointed out that you've been around for 95 of them. You think we have the special sauce that that will continue in this country, or what do we need to do to preserve that and make sure that it does continue.

沃伦·巴菲特我们有一种秘制配方,一种秘密配方。它好到连我自己都不确定它到底是什么,但我很清楚一点:任何有选择权的人,都会选择出生在美国。我是说,你知道,你可以挑出几个很小的国家,那里的人待得很开心,但还有别的国家是几百年来人人都想移民过去的吗?我是说,它也吸引过一些可怕的人,但结果还是管用。各个族群都有自己的黑帮,不光是意大利黑帮,我是说,我们那套系统并不是专门去别的国家筛选出优秀的人,但它就是管用了,而且管用到了极致。但那种极端的产物,似乎不属于那种理想的社会形态。我是说,如果你想勾勒一个理想社会的蓝图,有那样的人均 GDP 和一切,你不会去设计这样的遗产继承法。你不会,我是说,你会把所有东西都弄得不一样,但不知怎么它就是管用了。但这并不代表我们不能做得更好。

BUFFETTWe've got a special sauce, a secret sauce. It's such a good secret that I don't know what exactly it is, but I do know this, that anybody that has a choice would choose to be born in America. I mean, you know, you can pick some very small country they're very happy that they're there but this is there any other country that everybody's, couple 100 years wanted to emigrate to? I mean, and it attracted some terrible people, you know, too, but, but it worked. And they had the mafias from the different groups, not not just the Italian mafia, but, I mean, it wasn't that they were all, we had some system for picking out the wonderful people from some other countries, but it has, it has worked, but it's worth the extremes to which it works. Don't seem to belong to that kind of a society. I mean, if you were drawing up dreams for the ideal society, and you would have this kind of GDP per capita and everything, it wouldn't design, it wouldn't design the, it wouldn't design the inheritance laws. You wouldn't, I mean, you just do all kinds of things differently, but somehow it's worked. But that doesn't mean that we can't do better at all.

贝基·奎克沃伦,你知道,现场有几千人,他们中很多是几十年追随你的股东和合作伙伴。我就想问问,你有没有什么话想对他们说——那些多年来一直跟着你、做你伙伴的人?

QUICKYou know, Warren, there are thousands of people, shareholders and partners of yours for decades, in some cases, who are sitting out in this arena right now. And I just wonder if there's a message you'd like to give to them, who's been following you for years and been partners of yours for years.

巴菲特我给他们的第一条规则,不是什么黄金法则。(译注:黄金法则,即“己所不欲,勿施于人”。)你们愿意人怎样待你们,你们也要怎样待人。我不是个信教的人,但我想说,2000 年来,没人把这话说得比这更好了,这大概也是它能流传到一定程度的原因。我的意思是,现在读一本 2000 年前的老书、学怎么为人处事的人,比读任何当代人新写的东西都多。这本书里面,特别是《旧约》,有很多不同的故事,某种程度上是这样。但如果全世界都按黄金法则来活,那这个社会可要美好太多了。

BUFFETTThe number one rule I give them is just not give them the golden rule. Do unto others, I'm not a religious guy, but, I mean, nobody said it any better in a couple thousand years than that, which may be why it's lasted to a certain degree too. I mean, more people are reading a 2000-year-old book about how to behave than anything that anybody's coming up with lately. Now it's got a lot of, particularly the Old Testament, it's got different kinds of stories, to some extent, but if the whole world lived by the golden rule, it would be such a more wonderful society.

贝基·奎克己所不欲,勿施于人。

QUICKDo unto others as you'd have them do unto you.

巴菲特没错,从为人父母到当老板,再到——我是说——人生中的一切事都是如此,而且这不用你付出任何代价。事实上,你这么做反而会换来别人对你更好的态度。所以我的意思是,从某种意义上说这是一种相当自私的做法,但我从没见过哪个这样做的人会不快乐。我见识过很多人,身处各种各样不同的处境。

BUFFETTYeah, and that's true for everything from parenthood to being a boss to being, I mean, just everything in life, and it doesn't cost you anything. In fact, it's reflected in better behavior toward you. So I mean, it's a very selfish sort of thing in one sense, but I've never seen anybody that's unhappy that behave that way. They, and I've seen a lot of people in a lot of different kinds of situations.

贝基·奎克沃伦,感谢你今天抽空与我们坐下来聊聊。沃伦·巴菲特,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长。格雷格·阿贝尔马上就会登台,稍后你会看到他的更多内容。有保密新闻线索?我们愿闻其详。免费注册订阅新闻邮件,获取更多 CNBC 内容推送到你的收件箱,还可了解我们产品和服务的更多信息。© 2026 Versant Media, LLC. 保留所有权利。Versant Media 旗下公司。数据为实时快照 *数据至少延迟 15 分钟。

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QUICKWarren, I want to thank you for taking this time to sit down with us today. Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. Greg Abel, is going to be taking the stage in just a moment, and you will see more from him in just a moment. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. © 2026 Versant Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Versant Media Company. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes.

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