1981 年致股东信

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1982 年 2 月 26 日

February 26, 1982

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股份有限公司股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

1981 年经营利润 3970 万美元,为期初股权资本(证券按成本计价)的 15.2%,1980 年为 17.8%。我们新推出的股东指定公司慈善捐赠计划(详见后文)使 1981 年利润减少了约 90 万美元。该计划 1980 年尚未启动,我们计划在每年评估公司税务状况的基础上继续推行。

Operating earnings of $39.7 million in 1981 amounted to 15.2% of beginning equity capital (valuing securities at cost) compared to 17.8% in 1980. Our new plan that allows stockholders to designate corporate charitable contributions (detailed later) reduced earnings by about $900,000 in 1981. This program, which we expect to continue subject to annual evaluation of our corporate tax position, had not been initiated in 1980.

非控股所有权收益

Non-Controlled Ownership Earnings

在 1980 年年报里,我们详尽讨论过“非控股所有权收益”这个概念,即伯克希尔在那些我们既不控制、也谈不上重大影响,却持有重要投资的公司中,应占的未分配收益。(新股东或潜在股东若需要那段讨论,或本报告所引用的往年报告中的相关内容,我们乐于奉上。)这些未分配收益,没有一分钱计入伯克希尔的经营利润。

In the 1980 annual report we discussed extensively the concept of non-controlled ownership earnings, i.e., Berkshire’s share of the undistributed earnings of companies we don’t control or significantly influence but in which we, nevertheless, have important investments. (We will be glad to make available to new or prospective shareholders copies of that discussion or others from earlier reports to which we refer in this report.) No portion of those undistributed earnings is included in the operating earnings of Berkshire.

但我们相信,这些未分配、因而未入账的收益,总体上终将转化为伯克希尔股东实实在在的价值,就如同我们控制的子公司自己赚到、留存并入账了同样一笔收益一样,毫无二致。

However, our belief is that, in aggregate, those undistributed and, therefore, unrecorded earnings will be translated into tangible value for Berkshire shareholders just as surely as if subsidiaries we control had earned, retained - and reported - similar earnings.

我们也清楚,这类非控股所有权收益要转化为伯克希尔相应的已实现和未实现资本利得,发生的时点极不规则。市场价值长期来看与商业价值贴合得相当好,但在任何一个年份,两者的关系都可能任性地大幅摆动。市场对留存收益的认可,在各家公司之间也参差不齐:收益被用得没有效率的,认可会低得叫人失望,甚至为负;而那些用增添的资本换来高回报的公司,认可则可能远超留存收益一美元对一美元的比例。总的说来,只要选非控股公司时手法尚可,这一组的结果应当相当令人满意。

We know that this translation of non-controlled ownership earnings into corresponding realized and unrealized capital gains for Berkshire will be extremely irregular as to time of occurrence. While market values track business values quite well over long periods, in any given year the relationship can gyrate capriciously. Market recognition of retained earnings also will be unevenly realized among companies. It will be disappointingly low or negative in cases where earnings are employed non- productively, and far greater than dollar-for-dollar of retained earnings in cases of companies that achieve high returns with their augmented capital. Overall, if a group of non-controlled companies is selected with reasonable skill, the group result should be quite satisfactory.

论内在的经济特征,我们这些非控股业务权益总体上优于控股业务。这不难理解:非控股的选择余地要宽得多。优质企业的一小块股权,往往能在证券市场上以合理价格买到;可整家买下这类企业的机会却极少,一旦有,几乎总是要出高价。

In aggregate, our non-controlled business interests have more favorable underlying economic characteristics than our controlled businesses. That’s understandable; the area of choice has been far wider. Small portions of exceptionally good businesses are usually available in the securities markets at reasonable prices. But such businesses are available for purchase in their entirety only rarely, and then almost always at high prices.

一般收购行为

General Acquisition Behavior

我们的历史表明,无论是整家把企业买下,还是持有代表企业一小部分的可流通证券,我们都自在从容,并且一直在这两个方向上寻找大额投出资金的机会。(但小额的事我们尽量不碰——“一件事若压根不值得做,那就不值得把它做好”。)事实上,我们保险和印花券业务的流动性需求,本身就要求我们在可流通证券上重仓布局。

As our history indicates, we are comfortable both with total ownership of businesses and with marketable securities representing small portions of businesses. We continually look for ways to employ large sums in each area. (But we try to avoid small commitments - “If something’s not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well”.) Indeed, the liquidity requirements of our insurance and trading stamp businesses mandate major investments in marketable securities.

我们的收购决策,着眼于最大化真实经济利益,而非最大化管理层的地盘或会计报告上的数字。(长远来看,重视会计表象而轻视经济实质的管理层,通常到头来两者都几乎一无所获。)

Our acquisition decisions will be aimed at maximizing real economic benefits, not at maximizing either managerial domain or reported numbers for accounting purposes. (In the long run, managements stressing accounting appearance over economic substance usually achieve little of either.)

无论对当期报告利润有何影响,我们宁愿以每股 X 的价格买入优秀企业 T 的 10%,也不愿以每股 2X 的价格买入其 100%。多数公司高管的偏好恰好相反,而且从不缺乏为自己行为辩护的现成理由。

Regardless of the impact upon immediately reportable earnings, we would rather buy 10% of Wonderful Business T at X per share than 100% of T at 2X per share. Most corporate managers prefer just the reverse, and have no shortage of stated rationales for their behavior.

不过,我们怀疑在大多数高溢价收购中,真正起作用的——单独或共同——是以下三种通常并未明说的动机:

However, we suspect three motivations - usually unspoken - to be, singly or in combination, the important ones in most high- premium takeovers:

(1)商界或其他领域的领导者,很少缺乏冒险精神,往往乐于增加活动和挑战。在伯克希尔,公司脉搏从未像收购在望时那样加速跳动。

(1) Leaders, business or otherwise, seldom are deficient in animal spirits and often relish increased activity and challenge. At Berkshire, the corporate pulse never beats faster than when an acquisition is in prospect.

(2)大多数组织,无论商业与否,衡量自己、被他人衡量、以及为管理者定薪酬,首要标准都是规模,而非其他任何标准。(去问一位《财富》500 强高管他的公司在那个著名榜单上排第几,他回答的几乎总是按销售额排名的名次;他很可能根本不知道《财富》同样认真编制的、按盈利能力排名的同一 500 强榜单上,自己公司排在哪里。)

(2) Most organizations, business or otherwise, measure themselves, are measured by others, and compensate their managers far more by the yardstick of size than by any other yardstick. (Ask a Fortune 500 manager where his corporation stands on that famous list and, invariably, the number responded will be from the list ranked by size of sales; he may well not even know where his corporation places on the list Fortune just as faithfully compiles ranking the same 500 corporations by profitability.)

(3)许多管理层显然在易受影响的童年时期,对那个被囚禁在蟾蜍身体里的英俊王子被美丽公主一吻释放的故事印象过深。因此,他们确信自己管理上的那一吻,也能对目标公司 T 的盈利能力创造奇迹。

(3) Many managements apparently were overexposed in impressionable childhood years to the story in which the imprisoned handsome prince is released from a toad’s body by a kiss from a beautiful princess. Consequently, they are certain their managerial kiss will do wonders for the profitability of Company T(arget).

这种乐观态度必不可少。没有这种玫瑰色的看法,收购方 A 公司的股东们,为什么还愿意以 2X 的收购成本持有 T 的权益,而不是按 X 的市场价格直接自行买入呢?

Such optimism is essential. Absent that rosy view, why else should the shareholders of Company A(cquisitor) want to own an interest in T at the 2X takeover cost rather than at the X market price they would pay if they made direct purchases on their own?

换句话说,投资者随时都可以按蟾蜍的市价买到蟾蜍。如果投资者反而去资助那些愿意出双倍价钱换取亲吻蟾蜍权利的公主,那些吻最好真的蕴含相当威力。我们见过许多次亲吻,但很少见到奇迹。尽管如此,许多管理界的公主依然对自己亲吻未来的效力泰然自若——哪怕她们公司的后院已堆满毫无反应的蟾蜍,深可没膝。

In other words, investors can always buy toads at the going price for toads. If investors instead bankroll princesses who wish to pay double for the right to kiss the toad, those kisses had better pack some real dynamite. We’ve observed many kisses but very few miracles. Nevertheless, many managerial princesses remain serenely confident about the future potency of their kisses - even after their corporate backyards are knee-deep in unresponsive toads.

平心而论,我们应当承认,有些收购记录确实令人炫目。其中两大类尤为突出。

In fairness, we should acknowledge that some acquisition records have been dazzling. Two major categories stand out.

第一类是那些通过精心设计或机缘巧合,只收购了特别适应通胀环境的企业。这类受青睐的业务必须具备两个特征:(1)能够相当轻易地提价(即使产品需求平淡、产能未充分利用),而不必担心市场份额或销量出现重大损失;(2)只需追加极少的资本投入,就能容纳以美元计的业务量大幅增长(这种增长往往更多来自通胀而非实际增长)。近几十年来,能力平平的管理者,仅专注于符合这些标准的收购机会,就取得了极出色的业绩。然而,同时具备这两个特征的企业少之又少,而收购这类企业的竞争如今已激烈到自败其功的地步。

The first involves companies that, through design or accident, have purchased only businesses that are particularly well adapted to an inflationary environment. Such favored business must have two characteristics: (1) an ability to increase prices rather easily (even when product demand is flat and capacity is not fully utilized) without fear of significant loss of either market share or unit volume, and (2) an ability to accommodate large dollar volume increases in business (often produced more by inflation than by real growth) with only minor additional investment of capital. Managers of ordinary ability, focusing solely on acquisition possibilities meeting these tests, have achieved excellent results in recent decades. However, very few enterprises possess both characteristics, and competition to buy those that do has now become fierce to the point of being self-defeating.

第二类是管理界的超级明星——他们能认出那乔装成蟾蜍的稀世王子,又拥有管理能力去揭下那层伪装。我们向这样的管理者致敬:西北工业公司的本·海涅曼、特利丹公司的亨利·辛格尔顿、国民服务工业公司的欧文·扎班,尤其是大都会传播公司的汤姆·墨菲(他是名副其实的管理界“双料能手”,收购方向集中押在第一类,运营才干又使他跻身第二类的翘楚)。通过亲身经历和间接观察,我们都深知这类高管的成就有多难、多罕见。(他们自己也清楚;这几位高手近年很少出手做交易,还常常发现,回购自家股票才是运用公司资本最明智的去处。)

The second category involves the managerial superstars - men who can recognize that rare prince who is disguised as a toad, and who have managerial abilities that enable them to peel away the disguise. We salute such managers as Ben Heineman at Northwest Industries, Henry Singleton at Teledyne, Erwin Zaban at National Service Industries, and especially Tom Murphy at Capital Cities Communications (a real managerial “twofer”, whose acquisition efforts have been properly focused in Category 1 and whose operating talents also make him a leader of Category 2). From both direct and vicarious experience, we recognize the difficulty and rarity of these executives’ achievements. (So do they; these champs have made very few deals in recent years, and often have found repurchase of their own shares to be the most sensible employment of corporate capital.)

遗憾的是,你们的董事长够不上第二类。而对于第一类,尽管我对驱使其集中的经济逻辑理解得还算透彻,我们的实际收购活动却时断时续、远远不够。我们说得好听,做得不怎么样。(我们疏忽了挪亚原则:预报下雨不算数,造方舟才算数。)

Your Chairman, unfortunately, does not qualify for Category 2. And, despite a reasonably good understanding of the economic factors compelling concentration in Category 1, our actual acquisition activity in that category has been sporadic and inadequate. Our preaching was better than our performance. (We neglected the Noah principle: predicting rain doesn’t count, building arks does.)

我们也偶尔试过低价买进蟾蜍,结果如何,以往的报告里已有记录。显然,我们的吻都没奏效。我们碰上过几个王子,成绩不错——但买进的时候他们就是王子,至少我们的吻没把他们变成蟾蜍。最后,我们偶尔也相当成功,以蟾蜍般的价钱买下了一眼就能认出的王子的小部分股权。

We have tried occasionally to buy toads at bargain prices with results that have been chronicled in past reports. Clearly our kisses fell flat. We have done well with a couple of princes - but they were princes when purchased. At least our kisses didn’t turn them into toads. And, finally, we have occasionally been quite successful in purchasing fractional interests in easily-identifiable princes at toad-like prices.

伯克希尔的收购目标

Berkshire Acquisition Objectives

我们仍将继续寻求以合理的价格整家买下企业——所谓合理,是指即便被收购企业的未来大体只是重演过去,这笔交易也依然划算。如果我们对自己即将到手的东西相当有把握,很可能愿意为第一类企业付出相当不菲的价格。但在任何收购中,我们通常不会为“我们理应带来什么”而多付钱——因为我们发现自己通常带来的东西并不多。

We will continue to seek the acquisition of businesses in their entirety at prices that will make sense, even should the future of the acquired enterprise develop much along the lines of its past. We may very well pay a fairly fancy price for a Category 1 business if we are reasonably confident of what we are getting. But we will not normally pay a lot in any purchase for what we are supposed to bring to the party - for we find that we ordinarily don’t bring a lot.

1981 年,我们险些完成一笔大收购,标的业务和管理者都是我们极其中意的。然而,考虑到这笔资金的其他用途,对方最终开出的价格只会让我们的股东变得比收购前更穷。帝国是更大了,可子民却更穷了。

During 1981 we came quite close to a major purchase involving both a business and a manager we liked very much. However, the price finally demanded, considering alternative uses for the funds involved, would have left our owners worse off than before the purchase. The empire would have been larger, but the citizenry would have been poorer.

尽管 1981 年颗粒无收,但今后我们总还会有机会 100% 收购符合我们标准的企业。此外,我们预计还会不时出现重大的“无表决权合伙”机会,正如本报告第 47 页“平克顿”一节所述。我们欢迎各方就此类公司提供线索——我们愿作为举足轻重的少数合伙人加入,既能取得良好的经济回报,又有利于现有所有者和管理者实现其长期目标。

Although we had no success in 1981, from time to time in the future we will be able to purchase 100% of businesses meeting our standards. Additionally, we expect an occasional offering of a major “non-voting partnership” as discussed under the Pinkerton’s heading on page 47 of this report. We welcome suggestions regarding such companies where we, as a substantial junior partner, can achieve good economic results while furthering the long-term objectives of present owners and managers.

眼下,我们发现最容易寻得价值的途径,是在公开市场上买进那些拥有出色经济特许权、且管理层能干诚实的公司的部分股权。我们从不指望去经营这些公司,却指望从中获利。

Currently, we find values most easily obtained through the open-market purchase of fractional positions in companies with excellent business franchises and competent, honest managements. We never expect to run these companies, but we do expect to profit from them.

我们预计,这些公司未分配的收益,将为伯克希尔及其股东创造十足的价值(实现时需缴税)。若未能如愿,那必定是我们至少在以下三处之一出了错:(1)我们选择与之同行的管理层;(2)该企业未来的经济状况;或(3)我们支付的价格。

We expect that undistributed earnings from such companies will produce full value (subject to tax when realized) for Berkshire and its shareholders. If they don’t, we have made mistakes as to either: (1) the management we have elected to join; (2) the future economics of the business; or (3) the price we have paid.

这类错误我们犯过很多——无论买入的是非控股权益还是控股权益。其中第(2)类误判最为常见。当然,要翻出这类错误的例证,还得往我们的历史深处挖——有时得深挖到两三个月前。比方说,去年你们的董事长主动就铝业务的美好前景奉上专家意见,此后那番意见已被数次“小幅”修正——如今累计大约转了 180 度。

We have made plenty of such mistakes - both in the purchase of non-controlling and controlling interests in businesses. Category (2) miscalculations are the most common. Of course, it is necessary to dig deep into our history to find illustrations of such mistakes - sometimes as deep as two or three months back. For example, last year your Chairman volunteered his expert opinion on the rosy future of the aluminum business. Several minor adjustments to that opinion - now aggregating approximately 180 degrees - have since been required.

然而,出于个人原因,也由于一些更客观的原因,对于非控股公司(可流通证券)中出现的同样错误,我们通常能比在控股子公司中纠正得快得多。缺乏控制权,实际上常常反而成为一种经济优势。

For personal as well as more objective reasons, however, we generally have been able to correct such mistakes far more quickly in the case of non-controlled businesses (marketable securities) than in the case of controlled subsidiaries. Lack of control, in effect, often has turned out to be an economic plus.

正如我们去年所述,我们未入账的“所有权”收益,其规模已增长到超过我们报告的经营利润。我们预计这一态势仍将持续。仅在此类持仓中的四家公司——GEICO 公司、通用食品公司、R. J. 雷诺兹工业公司和《华盛顿邮报》公司——我们应占的未分配、因而未入账的收益,在 1982 年就很有可能合计远超 3500 万美元。会计规则将这些未分配收益完全忽略不计,削弱了我们年度净资产收益率指标、乃至任何单一年度经济表现指标的参考价值。

As we mentioned last year, the magnitude of our non-recorded “ownership” earnings has grown to the point where their total is greater than our reported operating earnings. We expect this situation will continue. In just four ownership positions in this category - GEICO Corporation, General Foods Corporation, R. J. Reynolds Industries, Inc. and The Washington Post Company - our share of undistributed and therefore unrecorded earnings probably will total well over $35 million in 1982. The accounting rules that entirely ignore these undistributed earnings diminish the utility of our annual return on equity calculation, or any other single year measure of economic performance.

长期公司业绩

Long-Term Corporate Performance

衡量长期经济表现时,我们保险子公司持有的股票按市值计价,但要扣除一笔准备,反映未实现收益一旦实际变现所需缴纳的税款。如果我们在本报告前一节着力强调的前提站得住脚,那么这些未曾入账的所有权收益,终将不规则却又必然地汇入我们的净资产。迄今为止,事实正是如此。

In measuring long-term economic performance, equities held by our insurance subsidiaries are valued at market subject to a charge reflecting the amount of taxes that would have to be paid if unrealized gains were actually realized. If we are correct in the premise stressed in the preceding section of this report, our unreported ownership earnings will find their way, irregularly but inevitably, into our net worth. To date, this has been the case.

要把业绩算得更为纯粹,还应把债券和保险以外持有的股票也按市值估值。但通用会计准则(GAAP)并不作此要求,何况这份额外的纯粹带来的差别微乎其微。倘若哪天这类估值差异扩大到显著程度,一如多数大型保险公司如今的情形,我们会向你们报告其影响。

An even purer calculation of performance would involve a valuation of bonds and non-insurance held equities at market. However, GAAP accounting does not prescribe this procedure, and the added purity would change results only very slightly. Should any valuation difference widen to significant proportions, as it has at most major insurance companies, we will report its effect to you.

按通用会计准则计算,在现任管理层任职的十七年间,每股账面价值从 19.46 美元增长到 526.02 美元,年复合增长率 21.1%。这个回报率数字往后几年极可能一路走低。不过我们希望,它仍能明显高于美国大型公司的平均水平。

On a GAAP basis, during the present management’s term of seventeen years, book value has increased from $19.46 per share to $526.02 per share, or 21.1% compounded annually. This rate of return number is highly likely to drift downward in future years. We hope, however, that it can be maintained significantly above the rate of return achieved by the average large American corporation.

1981 年伯克希尔净资产大增,总额 1.24 亿美元,约合 31%,其中一半以上来自一项投资——GEICO 公司的市场表现。总体而言,这一年我们从证券上获得的市值增益,远远跑赢了背后商业价值的增长。这样的市场波动,并不会总是往令人愉快的一边倒。

Over half of the large gain in Berkshire’s net worth during 1981 - it totaled $124 million, or about 31% - resulted from the market performance of a single investment, GEICO Corporation. In aggregate, our market gain from securities during the year considerably outstripped the gain in underlying business values. Such market variations will not always be on the pleasant side.

以往的报告里,我们讲过通胀如何使我们表面尚可的长期公司业绩,一旦作为衡量股东真实投资成果的尺度,就成了虚幻。我们赞赏美联储主席沃尔克的努力,也注意到各类价格指数眼下涨幅趋缓。尽管如此,我们对长期通胀走势的看法一如既往地悲观。稳定的物价水平就像贞洁:似乎守得住,却无法失而复得。

In past reports we have explained how inflation has caused our apparently satisfactory long-term corporate performance to be illusory as a measure of true investment results for our owners. We applaud the efforts of Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker and note the currently more moderate increases in various price indices. Nevertheless, our views regarding long-term inflationary trends are as negative as ever. Like virginity, a stable price level seems capable of maintenance, but not of restoration.

通胀在投资这道方程式里分量压倒一切,但我们不会再把自己的看法和盘托出来折磨你们了;通胀本身的惩罚就足够了。(受虐爱好者若还想要,以往的讨论均有存货。)只是,由于币值不断被侵蚀,我们的公司经营在填满你们钱包这件事上,仍将远比填饱你们肚子做得好。

Despite the overriding importance of inflation in the investment equation, we will not punish you further with another full recital of our views; inflation itself will be punishment enough. (Copies of previous discussions are available for masochists.) But, because of the unrelenting destruction of currency values, our corporate efforts will continue to do a much better job of filling your wallet than of filling your stomach.

股权附加值

Equity Value-Added

还有一个因素,会进一步浇灭你们对我们长期回报率残存的任何热情。为股权投资撑腰的经济学理由是:把管理才能和企业家才能与股权资本捆在一起运用,总体上能赚到超过被动投资回报(即固定收益证券利息)的那一部分额外收益。这套说法还讲,既然持有股权资本比被动投资形式承担更大风险,它就“理应”得到更高回报。股权资本带来一份“附加值”红利,看似天经地义、板上钉钉。

An additional factor should further subdue any residual enthusiasm you may retain regarding our long-term rate of return. The economic case justifying equity investment is that, in aggregate, additional earnings above passive investment returns - interest on fixed-income securities - will be derived through the employment of managerial and entrepreneurial skills in conjunction with that equity capital. Furthermore, the case says that since the equity capital position is associated with greater risk than passive forms of investment, it is “entitled” to higher returns. A “value-added” bonus from equity capital seems natural and certain.

但果真如此吗?几十年前,哪怕仅 10% 的净资产收益率,便足以让一家公司跻身“好”企业之列———即,再投入该企业的一美元,逻辑上理应被市场赋予超过一美元的估值。因为,当时长期应税债券收益率为 5%,长期免税债券为 3%,一个能将股权资本运用出 10% 回报的企业,显然值得投资者在所用股权资本之上支付一定溢价。即便考虑到股息税与资本利得税的共同作用,会将公司赚取的 10% 削减为个人投资者手中的约 6% 至 8%,这一结论依然成立。

<<<END P 10>>>

But is it? Several decades back, a return on equity of as little as 10% enabled a corporation to be classified as a “good” business - i.e., one in which a dollar reinvested in the business logically could be expected to be valued by the market at more than one hundred cents. For, with long-term taxable bonds yielding 5% and long-term tax-exempt bonds 3%, a business operation that could utilize equity capital at 10% clearly was worth some premium to investors over the equity capital employed. That was true even though a combination of taxes on dividends and on capital gains would reduce the 10% earned by the corporation to perhaps 6%-8% in the hands of the individual investor.

投资市场也认这个理。在那个更早的年代,美国企业所用股权资本平均能赚出约 11% 的回报,股票总体上的估值远高于这份股权资本(账面价值),平均每一美元卖到一美元五毛开外。多数企业都是好企业,因为它们赚到的远多于本钱(即长期被动资金的回报)。总体而言,股权投资创造的附加值相当可观。

Investment markets recognized this truth. During that earlier period, American business earned an average of 11% or so on equity capital employed and stocks, in aggregate, sold at valuations far above that equity capital (book value), averaging over 150 cents on the dollar. Most businesses were “good” businesses because they earned far more than their keep (the return on long-term passive money). The value-added produced by equity investment, in aggregate, was substantial.

那个年代已经过去,可它留下的教训却难以割舍。投资者和管理者的双脚固然须踏进未来,记忆和神经却常常还连着过去。对投资者来说,套用历史市盈率省事;对管理者来说,套用历史估值标尺省事——两者都比每天重新审视自己的前提要省事得多。当变化缓慢时,反复重估其实并不可取:既没多大用,还拖慢反应。可一旦变化剧烈,抱着昨天的假设不放,代价就极其高昂。而经济变化的步伐,如今已快得令人窒息。

That day is gone. But the lessons learned during its existence are difficult to discard. While investors and managers must place their feet in the future, their memories and nervous systems often remain plugged into the past. It is much easier for investors to utilize historic p/e ratios or for managers to utilize historic business valuation yardsticks than it is for either group to rethink their premises daily. When change is slow, constant rethinking is actually undesirable; it achieves little and slows response time. But when change is great, yesterday’s assumptions can be retained only at great cost. And the pace of economic change has become breathtaking.

过去一年里,长期应税债券收益率超过 16%,长期免税债券超过 14%。免税债券拿到的总回报,自然是分文不落全进个人所有者的口袋。与此同时,美国企业的净资产收益率只有约 14%,而这 14% 在个人所有者存进银行之前,还会被税收大幅啃掉一块。啃掉多少,取决于公司的股息政策和投资者适用的税率。

During the past year, long-term taxable bond yields exceeded 16% and long-term tax-exempts 14%. The total return achieved from such tax-exempts, of course, goes directly into the pocket of the individual owner. Meanwhile, American business is producing earnings of only about 14% on equity. And this 14% will be substantially reduced by taxation before it can be banked by the individual owner. The extent of such shrinkage depends upon the dividend policy of the corporation and the tax rates applicable to the investor.

因此,按照 1981 年末被动投资的利率水平,一家典型的美国企业,对于个人投资者而言,其每一美元的账面价值已不再值一美元。(若该企业为养老基金或其他免税投资者持有,尽管算下来依然不具吸引力,但结果会好上许多。)假设一位投资者适用 50% 的税率;若我们这家典型公司将收益全部派发,投资者获得的收入回报,便等同于一张 7% 的免税债券。并且,若此种状况持续———即收益全部派发,且净资产收益率维持在 14%———那么对于高税率档的个人投资者而言,这等同于 7% 免税的回报,便如同免税债券的票息一般,被牢牢锁定了。这样一张永续的 7% 免税债券,在撰写本文之际,可能仅值面值的五折。

<<<END P 14>>>

Thus, with interest rates on passive investments at late 1981 levels, a typical American business is no longer worth one hundred cents on the dollar to owners who are individuals. (If the business is owned by pension funds or other tax-exempt investors, the arithmetic, although still unenticing, changes substantially for the better.) Assume an investor in a 50% tax bracket; if our typical company pays out all earnings, the income return to the investor will be equivalent to that from a 7% tax- exempt bond. And, if conditions persist - if all earnings are paid out and return on equity stays at 14% - the 7% tax-exempt equivalent to the higher-bracket individual investor is just as frozen as is the coupon on a tax-exempt bond. Such a perpetual 7% tax-exempt bond might be worth fifty cents on the dollar as this is written.

反过来,若我们这家典型美国企业把收益全部留存,净资产收益率照旧不变,收益便会以每年 14% 的速度增长。若市盈率也保持不变,这只典型股票的股价同样会每年涨 14%。但这 14% 还没进股东的口袋,要落袋就得缴一笔资本利得税,眼下最高税率 20%。这么一算,净回报率反倒比当前可得的被动税后回报还要差。

If, on the other hand, all earnings of our typical American business are retained and return on equity again remains constant, earnings will grow at 14% per year. If the p/e ratio remains constant, the price of our typical stock will also grow at 14% per year. But that 14% is not yet in the pocket of the shareholder. Putting it there will require the payment of a capital gains tax, presently assessed at a maximum rate of 20%. This net return, of course, works out to a poorer rate of return than the currently available passive after-tax rate.

除非被动利率下降,否则那些每股收益每年涨 14%、却一分现金股息都不派的公司,对个人股东而言便是一门经济上失败的生意——被动资本的回报,盖过了主动资本的回报。这对投资者和公司管理者都是件不痛快的事,他们因而或许宁愿视而不见。可事实不会因为不痛快、或因为被无视,就不复存在。

Unless passive rates fall, companies achieving 14% per year gains in earnings per share while paying no cash dividend are an economic failure for their individual shareholders. The returns from passive capital outstrip the returns from active capital. This is an unpleasant fact for both investors and corporate managers and, therefore, one they may wish to ignore. But facts do not cease to exist, either because they are unpleasant or because they are ignored.

多数美国企业会把收益的相当一部分派发出去,于是落在上述两个例子之间。而眼下多数美国企业在经济上都是坏生意——为个人投资者创造的税后回报,还不及免税被动资金的回报率。当然,即便在当前条件下,仍有一些高回报企业依旧诱人。但总体而言,美国的股权资本没有为个人投资者创造出任何附加值。

Most American businesses pay out a significant portion of their earnings and thus fall between the two examples. And most American businesses are currently “bad” businesses economically - producing less for their individual investors after-tax than the tax-exempt passive rate of return on money. Of course, some high-return businesses still remain attractive, even under present conditions. But American equity capital, in aggregate, produces no value-added for individual investors.

需要强调的是,出现这般叫人沮丧的局面,并不是因为企业在经济上跳得比从前矮了。事实上它们还跳高了些:过去十年净资产收益率提升了几个百分点。问题在于被动回报这根横杆抬升得更快。糟糕的是,多数公司除了盼横杆大幅下调之外几乎无计可施;而看得到净资产收益率有望大涨的行业,实在寥寥无几。

It should be stressed that this depressing situation does not occur because corporations are jumping, economically, less high than previously. In fact, they are jumping somewhat higher: return on equity has improved a few points in the past decade. But the crossbar of passive return has been elevated much faster. Unhappily, most companies can do little but hope that the bar will be lowered significantly; there are few industries in which the prospects seem bright for substantial gains in return on equity.

未来几年横杆抬到多高,通胀的历史与预期将是主要因素(虽非唯一)。若长期通胀的成因得以缓解,被动回报率多半会回落,美国股权资本的内在地位应会明显改善。届时,眼下不得不归入经济“坏”生意的许多企业,将重回“好”生意之列。

Inflationary experience and expectations will be major (but not the only) factors affecting the height of the crossbar in future years. If the causes of long-term inflation can be tempered, passive returns are likely to fall and the intrinsic position of American equity capital should significantly improve. Many businesses that now must be classified as economically “bad” would be restored to the “good” category under such circumstances.

通胀环境还给坏生意的所有者加了一道格外辛辣的惩罚。这类低回报生意若想照旧运转,通常必须把大部分收益留下来——不管这么做会让股东付出怎样的代价。

A further, particularly ironic, punishment is inflicted by an inflationary environment upon the owners of the “bad” business. To continue operating in its present mode, such a low- return business usually must retain much of its earnings - no matter what penalty such a policy produces for shareholders.

按理说,理性开出的药方应该恰好相反。一个持有 5% 债券且离到期还有很多年的人,不会拿着这张债券的票息,去按每美元一百美分的价格再去买更多 5% 的债券,而此时同类债券用四十美分就能买到。他会拿着低回报债券的票息——如果打算再投资的话——去寻找当前既安全、回报又最高的去处。好钱不追坏钱。

<<<END P 5>>>

Reason, of course, would prescribe just the opposite policy. An individual, stuck with a 5% bond with many years to run before maturity, does not take the coupons from that bond and pay one hundred cents on the dollar for more 5% bonds while similar bonds are available at, say, forty cents on the dollar. Instead, he takes those coupons from his low-return bond and - if inclined to reinvest - looks for the highest return with safety currently available. Good money is not thrown after bad.

对债券持有人合理的,对股东同样合理。合乎逻辑的做法是:一家历史上和预期都有高净资产收益率的公司,应当留存大部分乃至全部收益,好让股东在扩充后的资本上赚取超额回报;反过来,公司净资产收益率低,就意味着应当高比例派息,让所有者把资本导向更有吸引力的地方。(《圣经》也持同样观点。在“按才干受责”的比喻里,两个赚了钱的仆人得到奖赏,获准百分之百留存收益、放手扩张;而那个毫无收益的第三个仆人,不但被斥为“又恶又懒”,还被勒令把自己所有的本钱统统交给业绩最好的那个。见《马太福音》25:14-30。)

What makes sense for the bondholder makes sense for the shareholder. Logically, a company with historic and prospective high returns on equity should retain much or all of its earnings so that shareholders can earn premium returns on enhanced capital. Conversely, low returns on corporate equity would suggest a very high dividend payout so that owners could direct capital toward more attractive areas. (The Scriptures concur. In the parable of the talents, the two high-earning servants are rewarded with 100% retention of earnings and encouraged to expand their operations. However, the non-earning third servant is not only chastised - “wicked and slothful” - but also is required to redirect all of his capital to the top performer. Matthew 25: 14-30)

可通胀带我们穿过镜子,进入《爱丽丝梦游仙境》那个颠倒的世界。当物价不停上涨,坏生意反倒必须把每一枚硬币都攥在手里。不是因为它值得往里投股权资本,恰恰是因为它太不值得投——正因如此,低回报生意才不得不奉行高留存政策。倘若它想像过去那样继续经营下去——而绝大多数实体,企业在内,都想——它就别无选择。

But inflation takes us through the looking glass into the upside-down world of Alice in Wonderland. When prices continuously rise, the “bad” business must retain every nickel that it can. Not because it is attractive as a repository for equity capital, but precisely because it is so unattractive, the low-return business must follow a high retention policy. If it wishes to continue operating in the future as it has in the past - and most entities, including businesses, do - it simply has no choice.

因为通胀就像一条巨型的企业绦虫。这条绦虫会抢在别人之前,把它每天必需的那份投资美元吞下肚,全然不顾宿主的死活。不管账面利润是多少(哪怕是零),企业都得源源不断地为应收账款、存货和固定资产投入更多资金,仅仅为了保住去年那点业务量。企业越不景气,绦虫从可用养分里抢走的比例就越大。

For inflation acts as a gigantic corporate tapeworm. That tapeworm preemptively consumes its requisite daily diet of investment dollars regardless of the health of the host organism. Whatever the level of reported profits (even if nil), more dollars for receivables, inventory and fixed assets are continuously required by the business in order to merely match the unit volume of the previous year. The less prosperous the enterprise, the greater the proportion of available sustenance claimed by the tapeworm.

在眼下的环境里,一门净资产收益率只有 8% 或 10% 的生意,往往没有余粮去扩张、去还债、去派发真正的股息。通胀这条绦虫,干脆把盘子舔得精光。(低回报公司派不出股息,情有可原,却常被掩饰过去。美国企业界越来越热衷于股息再投资计划,有的甚至附带折扣安排,几乎是逼着股东把股息再投进来。还有些公司干脆增发新股,拆东墙补西墙来派股息。凡是要靠别人承诺补上所派资本才派得出的“股息”,都得当心。)

Under present conditions, a business earning 8% or 10% on equity often has no leftovers for expansion, debt reduction or “real” dividends. The tapeworm of inflation simply cleans the plate. (The low-return company’s inability to pay dividends, understandably, is often disguised. Corporate America increasingly is turning to dividend reinvestment plans, sometimes even embodying a discount arrangement that all but forces shareholders to reinvest. Other companies sell newly issued shares to Peter in order to pay dividends to Paul. Beware of “dividends” that can be paid out only if someone promises to replace the capital distributed.)

伯克希尔继续留存收益,是出于进攻的考量,而非防御或义务。但节节攀升的被动回报率对股权资本施加的压力,我们绝无免疫可言。我们仍在越过税后被动回报这根横杆——只是勉强越过。我们历史上 21% 的回报率——未来绝无保证——在扣掉当前资本利得税率之后(我们预计这一税率今后几年会大幅上调),比起当下被动资金的税后回报,也只余下一道不宽的余地。要是哪天我们的公司附加值转为负数,那多少有点难堪。可这种事在别处发生过,在我们这儿一样可能发生——或缘于谁都无力左右的外部变故,或缘于我们自己相对适应得不够好。

Berkshire continues to retain its earnings for offensive, not defensive or obligatory, reasons. But in no way are we immune from the pressures that escalating passive returns exert on equity capital. We continue to clear the crossbar of after- tax passive return - but barely. Our historic 21% return - not at all assured for the future - still provides, after the current capital gain tax rate (which we expect to rise considerably in future years), a modest margin over current after-tax rates on passive money. It would be a bit humiliating to have our corporate value-added turn negative. But it can happen here as it has elsewhere, either from events outside anyone’s control or from poor relative adaptation on our part.

报告利润来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下表列出伯克希尔报告利润的来源。伯克希尔持有蓝筹印花约 60% 的股份,蓝筹印花又持有西科金融公司 80% 的股份。表中列示了各业务实体的总经营利润,以及伯克希尔在其中所占的份额。任何业务实体因非常规出售资产而产生的重大损益,都与证券交易合并列入表格底部附近的一行,不计入经营利润。

The table below shows the sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. Berkshire owns about 60% of Blue Chip Stamps which, in turn, owns 80% of Wesco Financial Corporation. The table displays aggregate operating earnings of the various business entities, as well as Berkshire’s share of those earnings. All of the significant gains and losses attributable to unusual sales of assets by any of the business entities are aggregated with securities transactions in the line near the bottom of the table and are not included in operating earnings.

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

                                                                         净利润
                                  税前利润                                税后
                              ----------------------  ------------------  ------------------
                                   合计          伯克希尔份额        伯克希尔份额
                              ------------------  ------------------  ------------------
                                1981      1980      1981      1980      1981      1980
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
                                                    (千美元省略)
经营利润:
  保险集团:
    承保   $  1,478  $  6,738  $  1,478  $  6,737   $   798   $ 3,637
    净投资收益     38,823    30,939    38,823    30,927    32,401    25,607
  伯克希尔-万贝克纺织     (2,669)     (508)   (2,669)     (508)   (1,493)      202
  联合零售商店      1,763     2,440     1,763     2,440       759     1,169
  喜诗糖果     21,891    15,475    13,046     9,223     6,289     4,459
  《布法罗晚报》     (1,057)   (2,777)     (630)   (1,655)     (276)     (800)
  蓝筹印花母公司      3,642     7,699     2,171     4,588     2,134     3,060
  西科金融母公司      4,495     2,916     2,145     1,392     1,590     1,044
  共同储蓄与贷款      1,605     5,814       766     2,775     1,536     1,974
  精密钢铁      3,453     2,833     1,648     1,352       841       656
  债务利息    (14,656)  (12,230)  (12,649)   (9,390)   (6,671)   (4,809)
  其他*      1,895     1,698     1,344     1,308     1,513       992
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
  小计——持续经营业务   $ 60,663  $ 61,037  $ 47,236  $ 49,189  $ 39,421  $ 37,191
  伊利诺伊国民银行**       --       5,324      --       5,200      --       4,731
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
经营利润     60,663    66,361    47,236    54,389    39,421    41,922
证券出售及资产非常规出售 …37,801    19,584    33,150    15,757    23,183    11,200
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
所有实体总利润   $ 98,464  $ 85,945  $ 80,386  $ 70,146  $ 62,604  $ 53,122
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
                                                                         Net Earnings
                                   Earnings Before Income Taxes            After Tax
                              --------------------------------------  ------------------
                                    Total          Berkshire Share     Berkshire Share
                              ------------------  ------------------  ------------------
                                1981      1980      1981      1980      1981      1980
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
                                                    (000s omitted)
Operating Earnings:
  Insurance Group:
    Underwriting ............ $  1,478  $  6,738  $  1,478  $  6,737   $   798   $ 3,637
    Net Investment Income ...   38,823    30,939    38,823    30,927    32,401    25,607
  Berkshire-Waumbec Textiles    (2,669)     (508)   (2,669)     (508)   (1,493)      202
  Associated Retail Stores ..    1,763     2,440     1,763     2,440       759     1,169
  See’s Candies .............   21,891    15,475    13,046     9,223     6,289     4,459
  Buffalo Evening News ......   (1,057)   (2,777)     (630)   (1,655)     (276)     (800)
  Blue Chip Stamps - Parent      3,642     7,699     2,171     4,588     2,134     3,060
  Wesco Financial - Parent ..    4,495     2,916     2,145     1,392     1,590     1,044
  Mutual Savings and Loan ...    1,605     5,814       766     2,775     1,536     1,974
  Precision Steel ...........    3,453     2,833     1,648     1,352       841       656
  Interest on Debt ..........  (14,656)  (12,230)  (12,649)   (9,390)   (6,671)   (4,809)
  Other* ....................    1,895     1,698     1,344     1,308     1,513       992
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
  Sub-total - Continuing
     Operations ............. $ 60,663  $ 61,037  $ 47,236  $ 49,189  $ 39,421  $ 37,191
  Illinois National Bank** ..     --       5,324      --       5,200      --       4,731
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Operating Earnings ..........   60,663    66,361    47,236    54,389    39,421    41,922
Sales of securities and
   unusual sales of assets ..   37,801    19,584    33,150    15,757    23,183    11,200
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Total Earnings - all entities $ 98,464  $ 85,945  $ 80,386  $ 70,146  $ 62,604  $ 53,122
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========  ========

*收购企业产生的无形资产摊销(即喜诗糖果、共同储蓄与贷款和《布法罗晚报》)反映在名为“其他”的类别中。

*Amortization of intangibles arising in accounting for purchases of businesses (i.e. See’s, Mutual and Buffalo Evening News) is reflected in the category designated as “Other”.

**伯克希尔于 1980 年 12 月 31 日出售了其持有的伊利诺伊国民银行所有权。

**Berkshire divested itself of its ownership of the Illinois National Bank on December 31, 1980.

蓝筹印花和西科金融都是上市公司,各有自己的信息披露义务。本报告第 38-50 页,转载了两家公司主要高管叙述 1981 年经营情况的报告。任何伯克希尔股东若想索取这两家公司之一的完整年报,可向罗伯特·H·伯德先生(蓝筹印花,地址:5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040)或珍妮·利奇夫人(西科金融公司,地址:315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, California 91109)函索。

Blue Chip Stamps and Wesco are public companies with reporting requirements of their own. On pages 38-50 of this report we have reproduced the narrative reports of the principal executives of both companies, in which they describe 1981 operations. A copy of the full annual report of either company will be mailed to any Berkshire shareholder upon request to Mr. Robert H. Bird for Blue Chip Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040, or to Mrs. Jeanne Leach for Wesco Financial Corporation, 315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, California 91109.

正如前文所言,我们不控制的公司里那部分未分配收益,如今已与上表详列的报告经营利润同等重要。至于已分配的那部分收益,自然主要通过保险集团收益中的净投资收益一项进入上表。

As we indicated earlier, undistributed earnings in companies we do not control are now fully as important as the reported operating earnings detailed in the preceding table. The distributed portion of earnings, of course, finds its way into the table primarily through the net investment income segment of Insurance Group earnings.

下面列出伯克希尔在这些非控股企业中的持股比例——它们的收益里,只有已分配部分(股息)计入了我们的收益。

We show below Berkshire’s proportional holdings in those non-controlled businesses for which only distributed earnings (dividends) are included in our earnings.

持股数量                                             成本        市值
-------------                                         ----------  ----------
                                                         (千美元省略)
  451,650 (a)  联合出版公司   $  3,297    $ 14,114
  703,634 (a)  美国铝业公司     19,359      18,031
  420,441 (a)  阿卡塔公司
                 (含普通股等价物)     14,076      15,136
  475,217 (b)  克里夫兰-克利夫斯铁矿公司     12,942      14,362
  441,522 (a)  GATX 公司     17,147      13,466
2,101,244 (b)  通用食品公司     66,277      66,714
7,200,000 (a)  GEICO 公司     47,138     199,800
2,015,000 (a)  汉迪与哈曼公司     21,825      36,270
  711,180 (a)  宏盟集团      4,531      23,202
  282,500 (a)  媒体综合公司      4,545      11,088
  391,400 (a)  奥美国际公司      3,709      12,329
  370,088 (b)  平克顿公司     12,144      19,675
1,764,824 (b)  R. J. 雷诺兹工业公司     76,668      83,127
  785,225 (b)  SAFECO 公司     21,329      31,016
1,868,600 (a)  《华盛顿邮报》公司     10,628      58,160
                                                      ----------  ----------
                                                       $335,615    $616,490
所有其他普通股持股     16,131      22,739
                                                      ----------  ----------
普通股总计    $351,746    $639,229
                                                      ==========  ==========
No. of Shares                                            Cost       Market
-------------                                         ----------  ----------
                                                          (000s omitted)
  451,650 (a)  Affiliated Publications, Inc. ........  $  3,297    $ 14,114
  703,634 (a)  Aluminum Company of America ..........    19,359      18,031
  420,441 (a)  Arcata Corporation 
                 (including common equivalents) .....    14,076      15,136
  475,217 (b)  Cleveland-Cliffs Iron Company ........    12,942      14,362 
  441,522 (a)  GATX Corporation .....................    17,147      13,466
2,101,244 (b)  General Foods, Inc. ..................    66,277      66,714
7,200,000 (a)  GEICO Corporation ....................    47,138     199,800
2,015,000 (a)  Handy & Harman .......................    21,825      36,270
  711,180 (a)  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.       4,531      23,202
  282,500 (a)  Media General ........................     4,545      11,088
  391,400 (a)  Ogilvy & Mather International Inc. ...     3,709      12,329
  370,088 (b)  Pinkerton’s, Inc. ....................    12,144      19,675
1,764,824 (b)  R. J. Reynolds Industries, Inc. ......    76,668      83,127
  785,225 (b)  SAFECO Corporation ...................    21,329      31,016
1,868,600 (a)  The Washington Post Company ..........    10,628      58,160
                                                      ----------  ----------
                                                       $335,615    $616,490
All Other Common Stockholdings ......................    16,131      22,739
                                                      ----------  ----------
Total Common Stocks .................................  $351,746    $639,229
                                                      ==========  ==========

(a) 全部由伯克希尔或其保险子公司持有。(b) 蓝筹印花和/或西科金融持有这些公司的股份。所有数字代表伯克希尔在该集团更大总持股中的净权益。

(a) All owned by Berkshire or its insurance subsidiaries. (b) Blue Chip and/or Wesco own shares of these companies. All numbers represent Berkshire’s net interest in the larger gross holdings of the group.

我们受控和非受控的业务横跨极广的领域,逐一细说在此篇幅太长。更多财务信息见第 34-37 页的“管理层讨论”和第 38-50 页的叙述性报告。不过,无论受控还是非受控,我们最大的一块业务过去一直是、今后也几乎肯定仍是财产意外险,因此有必要就这个行业的重要动向说上几句。

Our controlled and non-controlled businesses operate over such a wide spectrum of activities that detailed commentary here would prove too lengthy. Much additional financial information is included in Management’s Discussion on pages 34-37 and in the narrative reports on pages 38-50. However, our largest area of both controlled and non-controlled activity has been, and almost certainly will continue to be, the property-casualty insurance area, and commentary on important developments in that industry is appropriate.

保险业状况

Insurance Industry Conditions

“预测是危险的,”萨姆·高德温说,“尤其是关于未来的预测。”(伯克希尔的股东重读我们过去那些年报、看过董事长对纺织业前景那番“先见之明”的分析后,兴许也得出了类似的结论。)

“Forecasts”, said Sam Goldwyn, “are dangerous, particularly those about the future.” (Berkshire shareholders may have reached a similar conclusion after rereading our past annual reports featuring your Chairman’s prescient analysis of textile prospects.)

不过,要断言 1982 年将是保险承保近年来最惨的一年,倒毫无风险。当前的定价行为,加上保险合同的期限属性,早已把这个结局锁定。

There is no danger, however, in forecasting that 1982 will be the worst year in recent history for insurance underwriting. That result already has been guaranteed by present pricing behavior, coupled with the term nature of the insurance contract.

许多车险保单以六个月为周期定价销售,不少财产险保单则按三年期出售,但所有财产意外险保单期限的加权平均值,大概略低于十二个月。而保费一旦签下,在合同存续期内便被冻住。于是,今年签下的销售合同(业内叫“已签保费”),决定了明年约莫一半的收入水平(“已赚保费”);另一半则由明年签下、当年约赚取 50% 的合同决定。对盈利的影响是自动发生的:定价一旦出错,你就得难受地扛上好一阵子。

While many auto policies are priced and sold at six-month intervals - and many property policies are sold for a three-year term - a weighted average of the duration of all property- casualty insurance policies probably runs a little under twelve months. And prices for the insurance coverage, of course, are frozen for the life of the contract. Thus, this year’s sales contracts (“premium written” in the parlance of the industry) determine about one-half of next year’s level of revenue (“premiums earned”). The remaining half will be determined by sales contracts written next year that will be about 50% earned in that year. The profitability consequences are automatic: if you make a mistake in pricing, you have to live with it for an uncomfortable period of time.

请看下表中全行业已签保费的同比增幅,以及它对本年和次年承保盈利水平的影响。结果与你在通胀世界里预料的分毫不差:当增幅稳稳站上两位数高位,本年和次年的盈利趋势便是好兆头;当行业增幅偏小,无论当前水平多么不尽人意,承保状况很快就会进一步恶化。

Note in the table below the year-over-year gain in industry- wide premiums written and the impact that it has on the current and following year’s level of underwriting profitability. The result is exactly as you would expect in an inflationary world. When the volume gain is well up in double digits, it bodes well for profitability trends in the current and following year. When the industry volume gain is small, underwriting experience very shortly will get worse, no matter how unsatisfactory the current level.

表中的 Best's 数据几乎涵盖了整个行业,包括股份公司、互助公司和互惠公司。综合成本率反映的是运营与损失的总成本相对于保费的比例;低于 100 表示承保盈利,高于 100 表示亏损。

The Best’s data in the table reflect the experience of practically the entire industry, including stock, mutual and reciprocal companies. The combined ratio indicates total operating and loss costs as compared to premiums; a ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss.

年度变化 年度变化 保费 保费 已赚保费 (%) 已赚保费 (%) ------------- -------------保单持有人股息后综合比率 ----------------
197210.2 10.996.2
19738.0 8.899.2
19746.2 6.9105.4
197511.0 9.6107.9
197621.9 19.4102.4
197719.8 20.597.2
197812.8 14.397.5
197910.3 10.4100.6
19806.0 7.8103.1
19813.6 4.1105.7
来源:贝斯特综合及平均数据。
Yearly Change Yearly Change in Premium in Premium Written (%) Earned (%) ------------- -------------Combined Ratio after Policy- holder Dividends ----------------
197210.2 10.996.2
19738.0 8.899.2
19746.2 6.9105.4
197511.0 9.6107.9
197621.9 19.4102.4
197719.8 20.597.2
197812.8 14.397.5
197910.3 10.4100.6
19806.0 7.8103.1
19813.6 4.1105.7
Source:Best’s Aggregates and Averages.

来源:Best's 综合与平均数据。

Source: Best’s Aggregates and Averages.

正如波戈所说:“未来已经不是过去那个样子了。”眼下的定价做法预示着灾难性的后果,尤其是如果这个行业近年来侥幸躲过重大自然灾害的喘息期就此结束的话。要知道,承保状况一直在恶化,是在运气好时也在恶化,而非因为运气差才恶化。这些年飓风都停留在海上,驾车者也减少了开车;他们不会永远这么配合。

As Pogo would say, “The future isn’t what it used to be.” Current pricing practices promise devastating results, particularly if the respite from major natural disasters that the industry has enjoyed in recent years should end. For underwriting experience has been getting worse in spite of good luck, not because of bad luck. In recent years hurricanes have stayed at sea and motorists have reduced their driving. They won’t always be so obliging.

当然,那对孪生通胀——货币通胀和“社会”通胀(即法院和陪审团倾向于把保单的保障范围撑大,超出保险公司依据合同措辞和判例所预期的界限)——是挡不住的。修复财物和人身的成本,以及这些修复被判归保险公司承担的程度,都将一路无情攀升。

And, of course the twin inflations, monetary and “social” (the tendency of courts and juries to stretch the coverage of policies beyond what insurers, relying upon contract terminology and precedent, had expected), are unstoppable. Costs of repairing both property and people - and the extent to which these repairs are deemed to be the responsibility of the insurer - will advance relentlessly.

假使没有任何坏运气(大灾、驾驶里程增加等等),行业保费量当下要有每年至少 10% 的增幅,大概才够稳住 1982 年年中将自动出现的、创纪录的承保亏损水平。(多数承保方预计已发生损失总额每年至少涨 10%;当然,人人都指望自己那份能少些。)保费年增幅每比 10% 这个均衡值低一个百分点,恶化的步伐就快一分。1981 年的季度数据更坐实了一个结论:本已糟糕的承保局面,正在加速变坏。

Absent any bad luck (catastrophes, increased driving, etc.), an immediate industry volume gain of at least 10% per year probably is necessary to stabilize the record level of underwriting losses that will automatically prevail in mid-1982. (Most underwriters expect incurred losses in aggregate to rise at least 10% annually; each, of course, counts on getting less than his share.) Every percentage point of annual premium growth below the 10% equilibrium figure quickens the pace of deterioration. Quarterly data in 1981 underscore the conclusion that a terrible underwriting picture is worsening at an accelerating rate.

在 1980 年年报里,我们谈过那些毁掉众多保险公司资产负债表完整性的投资政策——它们逼得这些公司放弃承保纪律,不惜任何价格接单,只求别让现金流转负。道理很明白:一家保险公司若手握大量债券、又为会计目的把它们估到荒唐的高价,就几乎别无选择,只能靠荒唐的低价大量卖保单来让资金转起来。这类保险公司必然更怕业务量大跌,而不那么怕一笔大的承保亏损。

In the 1980 annual report we discussed the investment policies that have destroyed the integrity of many insurers’ balance sheets, forcing them to abandon underwriting discipline and write business at any price in order to avoid negative cash flow. It was clear that insurers with large holdings of bonds valued, for accounting purposes, at nonsensically high prices would have little choice but to keep the money revolving by selling large numbers of policies at nonsensically low prices. Such insurers necessarily fear a major decrease in volume more than they fear a major underwriting loss.

可惜,所有保险公司都受了牵连;你很难把价定得跟处境最险的那个对手差太多。这股压力有增无减,又给驱使许多保险管理者一味揽业务的诸多动机添了一条新的:崇尚规模胜过盈利,外加害怕一旦让出市场份额便再难夺回。

But, unfortunately, all insurers are affected; it’s difficult to price much differently than your most threatened competitor. This pressure continues unabated and adds a new motivation to the others that drive many insurance managers to push for business; worship of size over profitability, and the fear that market share surrendered never can be regained.

不管出于什么缘由,我们相信一个事实:尽管整个行业都在喊费率不足、理应严加甄选,却几乎没有哪家大型财产意外险公司,真肯把业务推掉到让现金流显著转负的地步。没有这份决心,价格就会一直承受沉重压力。

Whatever the reasons, we believe it is true that virtually no major property-casualty insurer - despite protests by the entire industry that rates are inadequate and great selectivity should be exercised - has been willing to turn down business to the point where cash flow has turned significantly negative. Absent such a willingness, prices will remain under severe pressure.

评论人士仍在谈论“承保周期”,通常暗指其节奏有规律可循,且盈利水平有一个相对恒定的中枢。我们的看法却不同。我们认为,虽然幅度显然会起伏不定,但对这个行业而言,巨额承保亏损将成为常态;未来十年中最好的承保年份,与过去十年的平均水平相比,恐怕都会显得不及格。

Commentators continue to talk of the underwriting cycle, usually implying a regularity of rhythm and a relatively constant midpoint of profitability Our own view is different. We believe that very large, although obviously varying, underwriting losses will be the norm for the industry, and that the best underwriting years in the future decade may appear substandard against the average year of the past decade.

面对未来日益恶化的行业环境,我们并无灵丹妙药能让旗下受控保险公司独善其身。我们的经理人——尤其是菲尔·莱舍(Phil Liesche)、比尔·里昂(Bill Lyons)、罗兰·米勒(Roland Miller)、弗洛伊德·泰勒(Floyd Taylor)和米尔顿·桑顿(Milt Thornton)——逆流而上,干得极为出色。我们牺牲了大量保费规模,但与全行业整体业绩相比,仍保持了相当大的承保优势。伯克希尔的前景仍是维持低业务量。我们的财务状况赋予我们最大的灵活度,这在财产险与意外险行业中极为罕见。而且,有朝一日,若恐慌情绪席卷整个行业,我们的财务实力就可能化为一项价值巨大的经营资产。

We have no magic formula to insulate our controlled insurance companies against this deteriorating future. Our managers, particularly Phil Liesche, Bill Lyons, Roland Miller, Floyd Taylor and Milt Thornton, have done a magnificent job of swimming against the tide. We have sacrificed much volume, but have maintained a substantial underwriting superiority in relation to industry-wide results. The outlook at Berkshire is for continued low volume. Our financial position offers us maximum flexibility, a very rare condition in the property- casualty insurance industry. And, at some point, should fear ever prevail throughout the industry, our financial strength could become an operational asset of immense value.

我们相信,GEICO 公司——我们在这一领域的主要非受控企业——凭借其极高且仍在提升的运营效率,处境比几乎所有其他大型保险公司都要稳妥得多。GEICO 是一个极其重要的商业理念在实践中的出色范例。

We believe that GEICO Corporation, our major non-controlled business operating in this field, is, by virtue of its extreme and improving operating efficiency, in a considerably more protected position than almost any other major insurer. GEICO is a brilliantly run implementation of a very important business idea.

股东指定捐赠计划

Shareholder Designated Contributions

我们新推出的让股东自行指定公司慈善捐款受益方的计划,得到了非同寻常的热烈响应。1981 年 10 月 14 日发出的介绍该计划的信函,副本见第 51–53 页。在 932,206 股有资格参与的股份(即股东名册上登记的实际持有人名下的股份)中,95.6% 做出了回应。即使剔除与巴菲特相关的股份,回应率也超过了 90%。

Our new program enabling shareholders to designate the recipients of corporate charitable contributions was greeted with extraordinary enthusiasm. A copy of the letter sent October 14, 1981 describing this program appears on pages 51-53. Of 932,206 shares eligible for participation (shares where the name of the actual owner appeared on our stockholder record), 95.6% responded. Even excluding Buffet-related shares, the response topped 90%.

此外,超过 3% 的股东主动写来信件或便条,除一人外,全都赞成该计划。无论是参与程度还是评论数量,都超过了我们此前见过的任何一次股东回应——即便那些回应是由公司员工和高薪聘请的专业代理征集机构大力招揽来的。相比之下,你们如此热烈的回应,却是在连公司提供的回邮信封都没有的情况下自发完成的。这份自发的行动,既说明了这项计划的好处,也为我们的股东增光。

In addition, more than 3% of our shareholders voluntarily wrote letters or notes, all but one approving of the program. Both the level of participation and of commentary surpass any shareholder response we have witnessed, even when such response has been intensively solicited by corporate staff and highly paid professional proxy organizations. In contrast, your extraordinary level of response occurred without even the nudge of a company-provided return envelope. This self-propelled behavior speaks well for the program, and speaks well for our shareholders.

显然,我们公司的所有者既乐于拥有决定其资金捐赠去向的权利,也乐于行使这一权利。笃信“老子最懂”式公司治理的人将会大跌眼镜:没有一位股东在指定表上附上指示,要求伯克希尔的高管——他们当然更具智慧——代为决定其股份对应的慈善捐款。也没有任何人提议,用自己那份公司慈善款,去匹配公司董事向各自选定的慈善机构所作的捐赠(这在许多大公司是一种流行、蔓延却秘而不宣的做法)。

Apparently the owners of our corporation like both possessing and exercising the ability to determine where gifts of their funds shall be made. The “father-knows-best” school of corporate governance will be surprised to find that none of our shareholders sent in a designation sheet with instructions that the officers of Berkshire - in their superior wisdom, of course - make the decision on charitable funds applicable to his shares. Nor did anyone suggest that his share of our charitable funds be used to match contributions made by our corporate directors to charities of the directors’ choice (a popular, proliferating and non-publicized policy at many large corporations).

合计下来,共有 1,783,655 美元的股东指定捐款,分配给了约 675 家慈善机构。此外,伯克希尔及其子公司仍会根据各业务经理在当地作出的决定,继续进行一些捐赠。

All told, $1,783,655 of shareholder-designed contributions were distributed to about 675 charities. In addition, Berkshire and subsidiaries continue to make certain contributions pursuant to local level decisions made by our operating managers.

有些年份——十年中大概有两三年——伯克希尔的捐款所能带来的税收抵扣效果会低于标准水平,甚至毫无抵扣。在那些年份,我们将不实施股东指定捐赠计划。其余年份,我们预计会在 10 月 10 日前后告知你们每股可指定的金额。随通知将附上一份回复表,你们将有三周左右的时间填写指定意向并寄回。要符合参与资格,你们的股份须在当年 9 月 30 日(如果该日是周六或周日,则为前一个周五)的股东名册上,登记在你们本人名下,或者登记在你们所拥有的信托、公司、合伙企业或遗产名下(如适用)。

There will be some years, perhaps two or three out of ten, when contributions by Berkshire will produce substandard tax deductions - or none at all. In those years we will not effect our shareholder designated charitable program. In all other years we expect to inform you about October 10th of the amount per share that you may designate. A reply form will accompany the notice, and you will be given about three weeks to respond with your designation. To qualify, your shares must be registered in your own name or the name of an owning trust, corporation, partnership or estate, if applicable, on our stockholder list of September 30th, or the Friday preceding if such date falls on a Saturday or Sunday.

1981 年该计划唯一令我们遗憾的是,部分股东非因自身过错,错过了参与机会。财政部允许我们在不存在税务不确定性的前提下推进该计划的裁定,10 月初才收到。该裁定不涵盖股份登记在名义持有人(如经纪商)名下的股东,同时还要求所有进行指定的股份的所有者向伯克希尔作出某些保证,而名义持有人无法以有效形式代为作出这些保证。

Our only disappointment with this program in 1981 was that some of our shareholders, through no fault of their own, missed the opportunity to participate. The Treasury Department ruling allowing us to proceed without tax uncertainty was received early in October. The ruling did not cover participation by shareholders whose stock was registered in the name of nominees, such as brokers, and additionally required that the owners of all designating shares make certain assurances to Berkshire. These assurances could not be given us in effective form by nominee holders.

在此情况下,我们试图尽快(通过 10 月 14 日的信)与我们所有的股东沟通,以便他们有意的话,可以作好准备,在 11 月 13 日的登记日之前参与。对于持股登记在名义持有人名下的股东来说,及时收到这一信息尤为重要,因为他们除非在登记日之前采取行动将股份重新登记到自己名下,否则将没有资格参与。

Under these circumstances, we attempted to communicate with all of our owners promptly (via the October 14th letter) so that, if they wished, they could prepare themselves to participate by the November 13th record date. It was particularly important that this information be communicated promptly to stockholders whose holdings were in nominee name, since they would not be eligible unless they took action to re-register their shares before the record date.

遗憾的是,与这些非登记在册的股东沟通,只能通过名义持有人进行。因此,我们强烈敦促那些名义持有人(主要是经纪公司)尽快将我们的信转交给真正的所有者,并向他们说明,若未能及时转交,可能导致这些所有者失去一项重要权益。

Unfortunately, communication to such non-record shareholders could take place only through the nominees. We therefore strongly urged those nominees, mostly brokerage houses, to promptly transmit our letter to the real owners. We explained that their failure to do so could deprive such owners of an important benefit.

我们这番敦促的效果,可不会给主张美国邮政私有化的论调提供什么支持。许多股东压根儿没有收到经纪商的任何消息(一些股东是在读到该计划的新闻报道后告诉我们的)。另一些人收到转来的信时,已来不及采取行动。

The results from our urgings would not strengthen the case for private ownership of the U.S. Postal Service. Many of our shareholders never heard from their brokers (as some shareholders told us after reading news accounts of the program). Others were forwarded our letter too late for action.

一家大型经纪公司声称替其 60 位客户持股(约占我们股东总数的 4%),但显然是在收信约三周后才将我们的信转出——为时已晚,这 60 位客户无一得以参与。(这种怠慢倒并未遍布该公司的所有部门;在那次姗姗来迟、徒劳无功的转寄之后六天,它就向伯克希尔寄来了邮寄服务的账单。)

One of the largest brokerage houses claiming to hold stock for sixty of its clients (about 4% of our shareholder population), apparently transmitted our letter about three weeks after receipt - too late for any of the sixty to participate. (Such lassitude did not pervade all departments of that firm; it billed Berkshire for mailing services within six days of that belated and ineffectual action.)

我们列举这些令人沮丧的事例,出于两个原因:(1)如果你希望参与未来的股东指定捐赠计划,请务必在 9 月 30 日之前,将你的股份登记在自己名下;(2)即使你无意参与,宁愿将股份留在名义持有人名下,也最好至少将一股登记在自己名下。这样做,可以确保任何重要的公司消息,你都能与其他所有股东同时收到。

We recite such horror stories for two reasons: (1) if you wish to participate in future designated contribution programs, be sure to have your stock registered in your name well before September 30th; and (2) even if you don’t care to participate and prefer to leave your stock in nominee form, it would be wise to have at least one share registered in your own name. By so doing, you can be sure that you will be notified of any important corporate news at the same time as all other shareholders.

股东指定捐赠的点子,以及其他许多后来证明对我们颇有益处的点子,都出自伯克希尔副董事长兼蓝筹印花董事长查理·芒格之手。抛开头衔不论,在管理所有受控公司方面,查理和我以合伙人身份共事。作为管理合伙人,我们对这份工作的喜爱,几乎到了要遭天谴的地步。我们也同样喜爱有你们作为我们的财务合伙人。

The designated-contributions idea, along with many other ideas that have turned out well for us, was conceived by Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire and Chairman of Blue Chip. Irrespective of titles, Charlie and I work as partners in managing all controlled companies. To almost a sinful degree, we enjoy our work as managing partners. And we enjoy having you as our financial partners.

沃伦·E·巴菲特

董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board