1983 年致股东信
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
过去一年,我们的登记在册股东从约 1900 人增至约 2900 人。增量主要来自与蓝筹印花的合并,但“自然”增长本身也在提速——几年前我们还只有 1000 人左右。
This past year our registered shareholders increased from about 1900 to about 2900. Most of this growth resulted from our merger with Blue Chip Stamps, but there also was an acceleration in the pace of natural increase that has raised us from the 1000 level a few years ago.
新股东既然如此之多,不妨把我们所奉行、事关经营者与所有者关系的几条主要经营原则重申一遍:
With so many new shareholders, its appropriate to summarize the major business principles we follow that pertain to the manager-owner relationship:
○ 我们的组织形式虽是公司,秉持的却是合伙人的心态。查理·芒格和我把股东看作所有者合伙人,把自己看作管理合伙人。(因为持股规模大,无论好坏,我们同时也是控股合伙人。)在我们眼里,公司本身并非这些经营性资产的最终所有者,而只是一条通道,股东借由它拥有这些资产。
o Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership. Charlie Munger and I think of our shareholders as owner-partners, and of ourselves as managing partners. (Because of the size of our shareholdings we also are, for better or worse, controlling partners.) We do not view the company itself as the ultimate owner of our business assets but, instead, view the company as a conduit through which our shareholders own the assets.
○ 与这种所有者本位相一致,我们的董事全都是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的大股东。五位董事里至少有四位,其家族净资产的一半以上系于伯克希尔的持股。我们是拿自己的钱下注的。
o In line with this owner-orientation, our directors are all major shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In the case of at least four of the five, over 50% of family net worth is represented by holdings of Berkshire. We eat our own cooking.
○ 我们的长期经济目标(须服从后文提到的若干限定条件)是让每股内在商业价值的年均增长率最大化。衡量伯克希尔的经济分量与经营成绩,我们看的不是规模,而是每股的进展。我们确信,每股增长率今后必然放缓——资本基数大幅膨胀,注定如此。但若我们的增长率不能超过美国大型企业的平均水平,我们会感到失望。
o Our long-term economic goal (subject to some qualifications mentioned later) is to maximize the average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value on a per-share basis. We do not measure the economic significance or performance of Berkshire by its size; we measure by per-share progress. We are certain that the rate of per-share progress will diminish in the future - a greatly enlarged capital base will see to that. But we will be disappointed if our rate does not exceed that of the average large American corporation.
○ 要实现这一目标,我们的首选是直接拥有一批能产生现金、且资本回报持续高于平均水平的多元化企业。次选是通过保险子公司买入可流通普通股,从而持有同类企业的部分股权。企业与股权的价格及可得性,加上保险资本的需求,共同决定了每一年的资本配置。
o Our preference would be to reach this goal by directly owning a diversified group of businesses that generate cash and consistently earn above-average returns on capital. Our second choice is to own parts of similar businesses, attained primarily through purchases of marketable common stocks by our insurance subsidiaries. The price and availability of businesses and the need for insurance capital determine any given years capital allocation.
○ 正因这种两条腿走路的持股方式,加上传统会计的局限,合并报表利润所能揭示的真实经济表现相当有限。查理和我,无论作为所有者还是经营者,几乎完全无视这些合并数字。不过,我们仍会向你们逐一报告所控股各主要业务的盈利——这些数字,在我们看来极为重要。它们连同我们就各项业务提供的其他信息,大体上能帮助你们对其作出判断。
o Because of this two-pronged approach to business ownership and because of the limitations of conventional accounting, consolidated reported earnings may reveal relatively little about our true economic performance. Charlie and I, both as owners and managers, virtually ignore such consolidated numbers. However, we will also report to you the earnings of each major business we control, numbers we consider of great importance. These figures, along with other information we will supply about the individual businesses, should generally aid you in making judgments about them.
○ 会计后果左右不了我们的经营决策或资本配置决策。收购成本相当时,我们宁愿买入 2 美元按标准会计原则无须并表的盈利,也不愿买入 1 美元须并表的盈利。而这正是我们经常面对的抉择,因为整家企业(盈利可完全并表)的售价,往往是同类企业一小块股权(盈利大多无法并表)按比例价格的两倍。就总量而言,假以时日,我们预计这些未并表的盈利终将通过资本利得,完整反映到我们的内在商业价值之中。
o Accounting consequences do not influence our operating or capital-allocation decisions. When acquisition costs are similar, we much prefer to purchase $2 of earnings that is not reportable by us under standard accounting principles than to purchase $1 of earnings that is reportable. This is precisely the choice that often faces us since entire businesses (whose earnings will be fully reportable) frequently sell for double the pro-rata price of small portions (whose earnings will be largely unreportable). In aggregate and over time, we expect the unreported earnings to be fully reflected in our intrinsic business value through capital gains.
○ 我们极少大举举债,一旦举债,也力求做成长期固定利率。我们宁可放过诱人的机会,也不愿把资产负债表撑得过满。这份保守拖累了我们的业绩,但考虑到我们对保单持有人、存款人、放款人,以及那些把异乎寻常大比例身家托付给我们的众多股东所负的受托责任,唯有如此,我们才睡得踏实。
o We rarely use much debt and, when we do, we attempt to structure it on a long-term fixed rate basis. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet. This conservatism has penalized our results but it is the only behavior that leaves us comfortable, considering our fiduciary obligations to policyholders, depositors, lenders and the many equity holders who have committed unusually large portions of their net worth to our care.
○ 经营者的“心愿清单”不会拿股东的钱去买单。我们不会为了多元化而以控股权价格买下整家企业,却无视这样做对股东长期经济利益的损害。花你们的钱,我们只做花自己的钱也会做的事,并会充分掂量你们自行在股市直接买入、分散投资所能得到的价值。
o A managerial wish list will not be filled at shareholder expense. We will not diversify by purchasing entire businesses at control prices that ignore long-term economic consequences to our shareholders. We will only do with your money what we would do with our own, weighing fully the values you can obtain by diversifying your own portfolios through direct purchases in the stock market.
○ 我们认为,再高尚的意图也该定期拿结果来检验。检验留存收益是否明智,我们看的是:假以时日,每留存 1 美元,是否为股东带来了至少 1 美元的市值。迄今为止,这一检验一直过关。今后我们将继续以五年滚动的方式加以考核。随着净资产越来越大,把留存收益用得明智也越来越难。
o We feel noble intentions should be checked periodically against results. We test the wisdom of retaining earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each $1 retained. To date, this test has been met. We will continue to apply it on a five-year rolling basis. As our net worth grows, it is more difficult to use retained earnings wisely.
○ 唯有在换回的商业价值不低于付出时,我们才会增发普通股。这条规则适用于一切增发形式——不只是合并或公开发售股票,也包括以股抵债、股票期权和可转换证券。我们绝不会以背离整家企业价值的价码,把你们公司的一小块卖出去——而增发股票,正是这样一回事。
o We will issue common stock only when we receive as much in business value as we give. This rule applies to all forms of issuance - not only mergers or public stock offerings, but stock for-debt swaps, stock options, and convertible securities as well. We will not sell small portions of your company - and that is what the issuance of shares amounts to - on a basis inconsistent with the value of the entire enterprise.
○ 有一种查理和我共有、却有损财务表现的态度,你们应当心里有数:无论价格多高,伯克希尔旗下任何一家好企业,我们都毫无出售之意;对于表现平平的企业,只要预期它们至少还能产生些许现金,只要我们对其管理层和劳资关系仍感满意,我们也极不情愿脱手。我们希望不再重犯那些当初把我们拖入平庸业务的资本配置错误。有人建议靠大笔资本开支就能让我们那些不济的业务重回像样的盈利水平,对此我们向来慎之又慎。(预测总是光鲜夺目——鼓吹者也总是一片诚心——但到头来,在一个糟糕的行业里追加巨额投资,其回报通常和在流沙里挣扎不相上下。)尽管如此,打牌式的经营手法——每一轮都把手里最没指望的业务甩出去——不是我们的路数。我们宁可让整体成绩略吃点亏,也不屑于此。
o You should be fully aware of one attitude Charlie and I share that hurts our financial performance: regardless of price, we have no interest at all in selling any good businesses that Berkshire owns, and are very reluctant to sell sub-par businesses as long as we expect them to generate at least some cash and as long as we feel good about their managers and labor relations. We hope not to repeat the capital-allocation mistakes that led us into such sub-par businesses. And we react with great caution to suggestions that our poor businesses can be restored to satisfactory profitability by major capital expenditures. (The projections will be dazzling - the advocates will be sincere - but, in the end, major additional investment in a terrible industry usually is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand.) Nevertheless, gin rummy managerial behavior (discard your least promising business at each turn) is not our style. We would rather have our overall results penalized a bit than engage in it.
○ 向你们汇报时,我们会坦诚相告,把评估企业价值时紧要的利好与利空都点明。我们的准则是:设身处地,若我们与你们易位而处,我们想知道的商业实情,一定如实相告。这是我们对你们最起码的亏欠。何况,身为一家拥有重要传媒业务的公司,若我们报道自身时,在准确、平衡与犀利上竟不及我们对旗下新闻人员报道他人时的要求,那实在说不过去。我们也相信,坦诚对我们这些经营者本身有益:一个在公众面前误导他人的首席执行官,久而久之,私下里也可能误导自己。
o We will be candid in our reporting to you, emphasizing the pluses and minuses important in appraising business value. Our guideline is to tell you the business facts that we would want to know if our positions were reversed. We owe you no less. Moreover, as a company with a major communications business, it would be inexcusable for us to apply lesser standards of accuracy, balance and incisiveness when reporting on ourselves than we would expect our news people to apply when reporting on others. We also believe candor benefits us as managers: the CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself in private.
○ 尽管我们奉行坦诚,谈及自己在可流通证券上的操作时,却只谈法律要求披露的部分。好的投资构想稀有、值钱,且和好的产品或收购构想一样,随时可能被对手抢占。因此,我们通常不会谈论自己的投资构想。这道禁令甚至延及我们已经卖出的证券(因为我们或许会再度买入),也延及那些被误传我们正在买入的股票。假如我们对某些传闻予以否认,换个场合却又“无可奉告”,那这“无可奉告”就等于变相承认了。
o Despite our policy of candor, we will discuss our activities in marketable securities only to the extent legally required. Good investment ideas are rare, valuable and subject to competitive appropriation just as good product or business acquisition ideas are. Therefore, we normally will not talk about our investment ideas. This ban extends even to securities we have sold (because we may purchase them again) and to stocks we are incorrectly rumored to be buying. If we deny those reports but say no comment on other occasions, the no-comments become confirmation.
这套教义问答到此讲完,现在可以进入 1983 年的重头戏——收购内布拉斯加家具城的控股权,以及我们与罗丝·布拉姆金及其家族的携手。
That completes the catechism, and we can now move on to the high point of 1983 - the acquisition of a majority interest in Nebraska Furniture Mart and our association with Rose Blumkin and her family.
内布拉斯加家具城
Nebraska Furniture Mart
去年,谈到那些头脑聪明、却肾上腺素上头的经营者如何一头扎进愚蠢的收购时,我引过帕斯卡的一句话:“我发现,人类的一切不幸都源于同一件事——他们无法安安静静地独自待在一间屋子里。”
Last year, in discussing how managers with bright, but adrenalin-soaked minds scramble after foolish acquisitions, I quoted Pascal: It has struck me that all the misfortunes of men spring from the single cause that they are unable to stay quietly in one room.
可即便是帕斯卡,为了 B 夫人也会走出那间屋子。
Even Pascal would have left the room for Mrs. Blumkin.
约莫 67 年前,23 岁的 B 夫人靠一张嘴说动了边境卫兵,离开俄国来到美国。她没受过正规教育,连小学都没上过,也不懂英语。到美国几年后,全靠大女儿每晚把白天在学校学的单词教给她,她才学会了这门语言。
About 67 years ago Mrs. Blumkin, then 23, talked her way past a border guard to leave Russia for America. She had no formal education, not even at the grammar school level, and knew no English. After some years in this country, she learned the language when her older daughter taught her, every evening, the words she had learned in school during the day.
1937 年,卖了多年旧衣服之后,B 夫人攒下 500 美元,要圆自己开家具店的梦。她看到芝加哥的美国家具城——当时全美家具批发的中心——便决定把自己的梦想取名为内布拉斯加家具城。
In 1937, after many years of selling used clothing, Mrs. Blumkin had saved $500 with which to realize her dream of opening a furniture store. Upon seeing the American Furniture Mart in Chicago - then the center of the nations wholesale furniture activity - she decided to christen her dream Nebraska Furniture Mart.
一家只有 500 美元本钱、既无地利又无产品优势的小店,要去硬碰财力雄厚、盘踞已久的对手,你能想到的每一道坎她都撞上了(还有几道你想都想不到的)。早年有一回,本就微薄的家底见了底,B 夫人(如今这个招牌在大奥马哈地区之响亮,堪比可口可乐或桑卡咖啡)用了一招商学院不教的办法应对:她干脆把自家的家具和电器卖掉,好分文不差、如期还清欠债。
She met every obstacle you would expect (and a few you wouldnt) when a business endowed with only $500 and no locational or product advantage goes up against rich, long- entrenched competition. At one early point, when her tiny resources ran out, Mrs. B (a personal trademark now as well recognized in Greater Omaha as Coca-Cola or Sanka) coped in a way not taught at business schools: she simply sold the furniture and appliances from her home in order to pay creditors precisely as promised.
奥马哈的零售商渐渐发觉,B 夫人给顾客开出的价码比他们厚道得多,便向家具和地毯厂商施压,要他们别把货卖给她。可她七拐八绕,照样弄来了货,还大砍价格。B 夫人于是被告上法庭,罪名是违反公平交易法。她不但把官司全打赢了,还捞到了千金难买的宣传。有一桩官司结案时,她当庭向法官证明,即便远低于市面通行价,她卖地毯照样有赚头——转头就把价值 1400 美元的地毯卖给了那位法官。
Omaha retailers began to recognize that Mrs. B would offer customers far better deals than they had been giving, and they pressured furniture and carpet manufacturers not to sell to her. But by various strategies she obtained merchandise and cut prices sharply. Mrs. B was then hauled into court for violation of Fair Trade laws. She not only won all the cases, but received invaluable publicity. At the end of one case, after demonstrating to the court that she could profitably sell carpet at a huge discount from the prevailing price, she sold the judge $1400 worth of carpet.
如今,内布拉斯加家具城靠一家 20 万平方英尺的店,每年做出超过 1 亿美元的销售额。全美没有第二家家居店的销量能望其项背。单这一家店卖出的家具、地毯和电器,就比奥马哈所有对手加在一起还多。
Today Nebraska Furniture Mart generates over $100 million of sales annually out of one 200,000 square-foot store. No other home furnishings store in the country comes close to that volume. That single store also sells more furniture, carpets, and appliances than do all Omaha competitors combined.
评估一门生意时,我总会问自己一个问题:假如我有充裕的资本和得力的人手,我愿意去跟它竞争吗?跟 B 夫人和她的后人过招,我宁可去和灰熊摔跤。他们采购精明,运营费用率低到对手做梦都想不到,再把省下来的大头让利给顾客。这正是最理想的生意——建立在为顾客创造非凡价值之上,反过来又为所有者带来非凡的经济回报。
One question I always ask myself in appraising a business is how I would like, assuming I had ample capital and skilled personnel, to compete with it. Id rather wrestle grizzlies than compete with Mrs. B and her progeny. They buy brilliantly, they operate at expense ratios competitors dont even dream about, and they then pass on to their customers much of the savings. Its the ideal business - one built upon exceptional value to the customer that in turn translates into exceptional economics for its owners.
B 夫人不光精明,更有远见;出于为家族长远打算的考虑,她去年愿意把生意卖出来。这个家族和这门生意,我仰慕了几十年,交易很快就谈成了。可现年 90 岁的 B 夫人不是那种肯回家、用她的话说“怕把脑子闲糊涂了”的人。她仍任董事长,一周七天守在卖场一线。地毯是她的拿手好戏。她一个人卖出的量,抵得上别家地毯零售商一整个部门的好成绩。
Mrs. B is wise as well as smart and, for far-sighted family reasons, was willing to sell the business last year. I had admired both the family and the business for decades, and a deal was quickly made. But Mrs. B, now 90, is not one to go home and risk, as she puts it, losing her marbles. She remains Chairman and is on the sales floor seven days a week. Carpet sales are her specialty. She personally sells quantities that would be a good departmental total for other carpet retailers.
我们收购了这门生意 90% 的股权——留下 10% 给参与经营的家族成员——另外还向几位关键的年轻家族经理人授予了 10% 的认购权。
We purchased 90% of the business - leaving 10% with members of the family who are involved in management - and have optioned 10% to certain key young family managers.
而这些经理人,个个都是好手。遗传学家见了布拉姆金一家,怕是要高兴得翻跟头。B 夫人的儿子路易·布拉姆金执掌内布拉斯加家具城总裁多年,被公认为全美采购家具和电器最精明的人。路易说他有一位最好的老师,B 夫人说她有一个最好的学生。两人说得都对。路易和他的三个儿子,个个都有布拉姆金家的经商本事、勤勉作风,以及最要紧的——品格。除此之外,他们还都是极好相处的人。能与他们结为合伙人,我们喜出望外。
And what managers they are. Geneticists should do handsprings over the Blumkin family. Louie Blumkin, Mrs. Bs son, has been President of Nebraska Furniture Mart for many years and is widely regarded as the shrewdest buyer of furniture and appliances in the country. Louie says he had the best teacher, and Mrs. B says she had the best student. Theyre both right. Louie and his three sons all have the Blumkin business ability, work ethic, and, most important, character. On top of that, they are really nice people. We are delighted to be in partnership with them.
公司业绩
Corporate Performance
1983 年,我们的每股账面价值从 737.43 美元升至 975.83 美元,增幅 32%。一年的数字,我们从不看得太重。毕竟,行星绕日一圈所需的时间,凭什么就该和商业动作开花结果所需的时间严丝合缝地对上?因此,我们建议以不少于五年为期,作为衡量经济表现的粗略标尺。倘若五年平均年增幅明显低于同期全美工业整体的净资产收益率,警示灯就该闪起来了。(真到那时,请留神我们的辩解——正如歌德所言:“思想枯竭之际,词句便格外趁手。”)
During 1983 our book value increased from $737.43 per share to $975.83 per share, or by 32%. We never take the one-year figure very seriously. After all, why should the time required for a planet to circle the sun synchronize precisely with the time required for business actions to pay off? Instead, we recommend not less than a five-year test as a rough yardstick of economic performance. Red lights should start flashing if the five-year average annual gain falls much below the return on equity earned over the period by American industry in aggregate. (Watch out for our explanation if that occurs as Goethe observed, When ideas fail, words come in very handy.)
现任管理层执掌的 19 年间,每股账面价值从 19.46 美元长到 975.83 美元,年复合增长 22.6%。以我们如今的体量,这样的回报率断无可能维持。谁若不信,尽可去干销售,但千万别去搞数学。
During the 19-year tenure of present management, book value has grown from $19.46 per share to $975.83, or 22.6% compounded annually. Considering our present size, nothing close to this rate of return can be sustained. Those who believe otherwise should pursue a career in sales, but avoid one in mathematics.
我们之所以用账面价值来汇报进展,是因为就我们而言(绝非所有公司都如此),它是内在商业价值——真正要紧的指标——增长的一个保守却相当够用的替身。账面价值作为记分工具的好处,在于计算容易,且不掺入估算内在商业价值时那些主观(却重要)的判断。不过要紧的是弄清:账面价值与内在商业价值这两个词,含义大相径庭。
We report our progress in terms of book value because in our case (though not, by any means, in all cases) it is a conservative but reasonably adequate proxy for growth in intrinsic business value - the measurement that really counts. Book values virtue as a score-keeping measure is that it is easy to calculate and doesnt involve the subjective (but important) judgments employed in calculation of intrinsic business value. It is important to understand, however, that the two terms - book value and intrinsic business value - have very different meanings.
账面价值是个会计概念,记录的是实收资本与留存收益累积起来的财务投入。内在商业价值则是个经济概念,估算的是未来现金产出折现到当下的价值。账面价值告诉你投进去了多少;内在商业价值估算的是能取出来多少。
Book value is an accounting concept, recording the accumulated financial input from both contributed capital and retained earnings. Intrinsic business value is an economic concept, estimating future cash output discounted to present value. Book value tells you what has been put in; intrinsic business value estimates what can be taken out.
打个比方就明白两者之别。假设你供两个孩子上大学,花在他俩身上的钱一模一样。两份教育的账面价值(按财务投入算)分毫不差。但未来回报的现值(也就是内在商业价值),却可能天差地别——从一文不值到教育成本的许多倍都有可能。同理,财务投入相同的企业,最终价值也会相去甚远。
An analogy will suggest the difference. Assume you spend identical amounts putting each of two children through college. The book value (measured by financial input) of each childs education would be the same. But the present value of the future payoff (the intrinsic business value) might vary enormously - from zero to many times the cost of the education. So, also, do businesses having equal financial input end up with wide variations in value.
1965 财年初现任管理层接手伯克希尔时,每股 19.46 美元的账面价值大大高估了内在商业价值。当时这些账面价值全是纺织资产,而它们平均连个像样的回报率都挣不出来。套用我们那个比方,投在纺织资产上的钱,就像砸在一份大半白费的教育上。
At Berkshire, at the beginning of fiscal 1965 when the present management took over, the $19.46 per share book value considerably overstated intrinsic business value. All of that book value consisted of textile assets that could not earn, on average, anything close to an appropriate rate of return. In the terms of our analogy, the investment in textile assets resembled investment in a largely-wasted education.
然而如今,我们的内在商业价值已远远高于账面价值。这有两大缘由:
Now, however, our intrinsic business value considerably exceeds book value. There are two major reasons:
(1)标准会计原则要求,保险子公司持有的普通股按市值入账,而我们持有的其他股票则按成本与市价孰低法计价。1983 年底,后一类股票的市值高出账面价值 7000 万美元(税前),税后约 5000 万美元。这块超出部分理应算作我们的内在商业价值,却未计入账面价值的算式;
(1) Standard accounting principles require that common stocks held by our insurance subsidiaries be stated on our books at market value, but that other stocks we own be carried at the lower of aggregate cost or market. At the end of 1983, the market value of this latter group exceeded carrying value by $70 million pre-tax, or about $50 million after tax. This excess belongs in our intrinsic business value, but is not included in the calculation of book value;
(2)更重要的是,我们旗下几家企业所拥有的经济商誉(理应计入内在商业价值),远远大于资产负债表上列示、并已反映进账面价值的会计商誉。
(2) More important, we own several businesses that possess economic Goodwill (which is properly includable in intrinsic business value) far larger than the accounting Goodwill that is carried on our balance sheet and reflected in book value.
商誉,无论经济商誉还是会计商誉,都是个玄奥的话题,要讲清楚,此处篇幅远远不够。本信之后附有一篇附录——《商誉及其摊销:规则与现实》——它解释了经济商誉与会计商誉为何可能、且通常确实相去甚远。
Goodwill, both economic and accounting, is an arcane subject and requires more explanation than is appropriate here. The appendix that follows this letter - Goodwill and its Amortization: The Rules and The Realities - explains why economic and accounting Goodwill can, and usually do, differ enormously.
一个人纵使一辈子不去想商誉及其摊销,日子照样过得充实而美满。但研习投资与管理的人,理应懂得其中的微妙。我自己的想法,与 35 年前相比已彻底改观。那时我受的教诲是偏爱有形资产,避开那些价值主要仰仗经济商誉的企业。这一偏见让我犯下不少重大的“该做而未做”之错,倒是“做错了”的失误相对不多。
You can live a full and rewarding life without ever thinking about Goodwill and its amortization. But students of investment and management should understand the nuances of the subject. My own thinking has changed drastically from 35 years ago when I was taught to favor tangible assets and to shun businesses whose value depended largely upon economic Goodwill. This bias caused me to make many important business mistakes of omission, although relatively few of commission.
凯恩斯一语道破了我的症结:“难处不在于接受新观念,而在于摆脱旧观念。”我挣脱旧观念拖了很久,一部分原因在于,同一位老师教给我的其余东西大多曾经(并将继续)极其宝贵。到头来,是亲历与旁观的商业经验,锻造出我今日的坚定偏好:偏爱那些坐拥大量持久商誉、又只需极少有形资产的企业。
Keynes identified my problem: The difficulty lies not in the new ideas but in escaping from the old ones. My escape was long delayed, in part because most of what I had been taught by the same teacher had been (and continues to be) so extraordinarily valuable. Ultimately, business experience, direct and vicarious, produced my present strong preference for businesses that possess large amounts of enduring Goodwill and that utilize a minimum of tangible assets.
对那些熟悉会计术语、又有心了解商誉商业内涵的读者,我推荐一读这篇附录。无论你是否打算啃下它,都请记住:查理和我认为,伯克希尔所拥有的经济商誉价值相当可观,远高于账面价值所反映的水平。
I recommend the Appendix to those who are comfortable with accounting terminology and who have an interest in understanding the business aspects of Goodwill. Whether or not you wish to tackle the Appendix, you should be aware that Charlie and I believe that Berkshire possesses very significant economic Goodwill value above that reflected in our book value.
已报告收益来源
Sources of Reported Earnings
下表列出伯克希尔已报告收益的来源。1982 年,伯克希尔持有蓝筹印花约 60% 的股权;1983 年,前六个月持股 60%,此后为 100%。相应地,伯克希尔在韦斯科金融的净权益,1982 年及 1983 年前六个月为 48%,1983 年余下时间为 80%。正因这些持股比例的变动,表中前两栏最能反映基础业务的真实表现。
The table below shows the sources of Berkshires reported earnings. In 1982, Berkshire owned about 60% of Blue Chip Stamps whereas, in 1983, our ownership was 60% throughout the first six months and 100% thereafter. In turn, Berkshires net interest in Wesco was 48% during 1982 and the first six months of 1983, and 80% for the balance of 1983. Because of these changed ownership percentages, the first two columns of the table provide the best measure of underlying business performance.
任何一家业务实体因非常规资产出售而产生的重大损益,均与证券交易一并汇入表格靠下的那一行,不计入经营利润。(任何一年的已实现资本损益,在我们看来都毫无意义;但若干年累计的已实现与未实现资本利得,我们视为极其重要。)此外,商誉摊销不摊入具体业务,而是按附录所述缘由单列一项。
All of the significant gains and losses attributable to unusual sales of assets by any of the business entities are aggregated with securities transactions on the line near the bottom of the table, and are not included in operating earnings. (We regard any annual figure for realized capital gains or losses as meaningless, but we regard the aggregate realized and unrealized capital gains over a period of years as very important.) Furthermore, amortization of Goodwill is not charged against the specific businesses but, for reasons outlined in the Appendix, is set forth as a separate item.
净利润
税前利润 税后
---------------------------------- ------------------
合计 伯克希尔份额 伯克希尔份额
------------------ ------------------ ------------------
1983 1982 1983 1982 1983 1982
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
(千美元略去)
经营利润:
保险集团:
承保 $(33,872) $(21,558) $(33,872) $(21,558) $(18,400) $(11,345)
净投资收益 43,810 41,620 43,810 41,620 39,114 35,270
伯克希尔-旺贝克纺织 (100) (1,545) (100) (1,545) (63) (862)
联合零售店 697 914 697 914 355 446
内布拉斯加家具城(1) 3,812 -- 3,049 -- 1,521 --
喜诗糖果 27,411 23,884 24,526 14,235 12,212 6,914
《布法罗晚报》 19,352 (1,215) 16,547 (724) 8,832 (226)
蓝筹印花(2) (1,422) 4,182 (1,876) 2,492 (353) 2,472
韦斯科金融 - 母公司 7,493 6,156 4,844 2,937 3,448 2,210
互助储蓄与贷款 (798) (6) (467) (2) 1,917 1,524
精密钢铁 3,241 1,035 2,102 493 1,136 265
债务利息 (15,104) (14,996) (13,844) (12,977) (7,346) (6,951)
特殊 GEICO 分配 21,000 -- 21,000 -- 19,551 --
股东指定
捐款 (3,066) (891) (3,066) (891) (1,656) (481)
商誉摊销 (532) 151 (563) 90 (563) 90
其他 10,121 3,371 9,623 2,658 8,490 2,171
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
经营利润 82,043 41,102 72,410 27,742 68,195 31,497
证券销售及
特殊资产销售 67,260 36,651 65,089 21,875 45,298 14,877
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
总利润 $149,303 $ 77,753 $137,499 $ 49,617 $113,493 $ 46,374
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ======== Net Earnings
Earnings Before Income Taxes After Tax
-------------------------------------- ------------------
Total Berkshire Share Berkshire Share
------------------ ------------------ ------------------
1983 1982 1983 1982 1983 1982
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
(000s omitted)
Operating Earnings:
Insurance Group:
Underwriting ............ $(33,872) $(21,558) $(33,872) $(21,558) $(18,400) $(11,345)
Net Investment Income ... 43,810 41,620 43,810 41,620 39,114 35,270
Berkshire-Waumbec Textiles (100) (1,545) (100) (1,545) (63) (862)
Associated Retail Stores .. 697 914 697 914 355 446
Nebraska Furniture Mart(1) 3,812 -- 3,049 -- 1,521 --
Sees Candies ............. 27,411 23,884 24,526 14,235 12,212 6,914
Buffalo Evening News ...... 19,352 (1,215) 16,547 (724) 8,832 (226)
Blue Chip Stamps(2) ....... (1,422) 4,182 (1,876) 2,492 (353) 2,472
Wesco Financial - Parent .. 7,493 6,156 4,844 2,937 3,448 2,210
Mutual Savings and Loan ... (798) (6) (467) (2) 1,917 1,524
Precision Steel ........... 3,241 1,035 2,102 493 1,136 265
Interest on Debt .......... (15,104) (14,996) (13,844) (12,977) (7,346) (6,951)
Special GEICO Distribution 21,000 -- 21,000 -- 19,551 --
Shareholder-Designated
Contributions .......... (3,066) (891) (3,066) (891) (1,656) (481)
Amortization of Goodwill .. (532) 151 (563) 90 (563) 90
Other ..................... 10,121 3,371 9,623 2,658 8,490 2,171
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Operating Earnings .......... 82,043 41,102 72,410 27,742 68,195 31,497
Sales of securities and
unusual sales of assets .. 67,260 36,651 65,089 21,875 45,298 14,877
-------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Total Earnings .............. $149,303 $ 77,753 $137,499 $ 49,617 $113,493 $ 46,374
======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========(1)10 月至 12 月 (2)1982 年与 1983 年不可比;主要资产已在合并中转移。
(1) October through December (2) 1982 and 1983 are not comparable; major assets were transferred in the merger.
关于韦斯科旗下各项业务,请阅读查理·芒格在第 46—51 页的报告。1983 年末,77 岁的路易·文森蒂因健康所迫退休,查理接替他出任韦斯科董事长。有些时候,“健康”不过是个托词,但就路易而言,除了健康,再没有别的理由会让我们动过让他退休的念头。路易是个了不起的人,也是个了不起的经理人。
For a discussion of the businesses owned by Wesco, please read Charlie Mungers report on pages 46-51. Charlie replaced Louie Vincenti as Chairman of Wesco late in 1983 when health forced Louies retirement at age 77. In some instances, health is a euphemism, but in Louies case nothing but health would cause us to consider his retirement. Louie is a marvelous man and has been a marvelous manager.
表中列示的那笔 GEICO 特殊分配,缘起于 GEICO 对自身部分股票发起要约收购,从我们及其他股东手中回购股份。应 GEICO 之请,我们出让的股数,恰好使交易前后我们的持股比例保持不变。正因我们这次出售是按比例进行的,所得款项才得以按股息处理。与个人不同,公司从股息中获得的净收益远高于资本利得,因为股息的实际联邦所得税税率为 6.9%,而资本利得为 28%。
The special GEICO distribution reported in the table arose when that company made a tender offer for a portion of its stock, buying both from us and other shareholders. At GEICOs request, we tendered a quantity of shares that kept our ownership percentage the same after the transaction as before. The proportional nature of our sale permitted us to treat the proceeds as a dividend. Unlike individuals, corporations net considerably more when earnings are derived from dividends rather than from capital gains, since the effective Federal income tax rate on dividends is 6.9% versus 28% on capital gains.
即便将这笔特殊项目计入在内,我们 1983 年从 GEICO 收到的股息总额,仍远低于我们应占的 GEICO 收益份额。因此,无论从会计还是经济角度看,将这笔回购所得计入我们的报告收益都完全妥当。之所以特意提请大家注意,只因这一项目金额巨大且不寻常。
Even with this special item added in, our total dividends from GEICO in 1983 were considerably less than our share of GEICOs earnings. Thus it is perfectly appropriate, from both an accounting and economic standpoint, to include the redemption proceeds in our reported earnings. It is because the item is large and unusual that we call your attention to it.
列示我们收益来源的这张表,包含了我们持有其有价证券的那些非控股公司所派发的股息。但是,该表并不包含这些公司留存的、按我们持股比例应归属于我们的那部分收益。总体来看,随着时间的推移,我们预计这些未分配收益终将反映在市场价格中,并以一美元对一美元的方式增加我们的内在商业价值,就如同这些收益一直由我们掌控、并已作为我们利润的一部分列报一样。这并不意味着我们期望所有持股都表现一致;有些会让我们失望,有些则会带来惊喜。迄今为止,实际情形好于我们当初的预想。总的算来,每留存一美元收益,我们所获得的市场价值增长远超一美元。
The table showing you our sources of earnings includes dividends from those non-controlled companies whose marketable equity securities we own. But the table does not include earnings those companies have retained that are applicable to our ownership. In aggregate and over time we expect those undistributed earnings to be reflected in market prices and to increase our intrinsic business value on a dollar-for-dollar basis, just as if those earnings had been under our control and reported as part of our profits. That does not mean we expect all of our holdings to behave uniformly; some will disappoint us, others will deliver pleasant surprises. To date our experience has been better than we originally anticipated, In aggregate, we have received far more than a dollar of market value gain for every dollar of earnings retained.
下表列示了 1983 年底我们持有的可流通权益证券的净额。所有数字均代表伯克希尔 100% 的持股,以及西科金融 80% 的持股。归属于西科金融少数股东的部分已予剔除。
The following table shows our 1983 yearend net holdings in marketable equities. All numbers represent 100% of Berkshires holdings, and 80% of Wescos holdings. The portion attributable to minority shareholders of Wesco has been excluded.
股票数量 成本 市值
------------- ---------- ----------
(千美元略去)
690,975 Affiliated Publications, Inc. $ 3,516 $ 26,603
4,451,544 通用食品公司(a) 163,786 228,698
6,850,000 GEICO 公司 47,138 398,156
2,379,200 Handy & Harman 27,318 42,231
636,310 Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. 4,056 33,088
197,200 Media General 3,191 11,191
250,400 Ogilvy & Mather International 2,580 12,833
5,618,661 R. J. Reynolds Industries, Inc.(a) 268,918 341,334
901,788 时代公司 27,732 56,860
1,868,600 华盛顿邮报公司 10,628 136,875
---------- ----------
$558,863 $1,287,869
所有其他普通股持股 7,485 18,044
---------- ----------
普通股总计 $566,348 $1,305,913
========== ==========No. of Shares Cost Market
------------- ---------- ----------
(000s omitted)
690,975 Affiliated Publications, Inc. .... $ 3,516 $ 26,603
4,451,544 General Foods Corporation(a) ..... 163,786 228,698
6,850,000 GEICO Corporation ................ 47,138 398,156
2,379,200 Handy & Harman ................... 27,318 42,231
636,310 Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. 4,056 33,088
197,200 Media General .................... 3,191 11,191
250,400 Ogilvy & Mather International .... 2,580 12,833
5,618,661 R. J. Reynolds Industries, Inc.(a) 268,918 341,334
901,788 Time, Inc. ....................... 27,732 56,860
1,868,600 The Washington Post Company ...... 10,628 136,875
---------- ----------
$558,863 $1,287,869
All Other Common Stockholdings ... 7,485 18,044
---------- ----------
Total Common Stocks .............. $566,348 $1,305,913
========== ==========(a) 西科金融持有这些公司的股份。
(a) WESCO owns shares in these companies.
基于当前持股与当前股息率——不含去年 GEICO 按比例回购之类的任何特殊项目——我们预计 1984 年从这一组持股收到的报告股息约为 3900 万美元。我们还能对这组持股中,按我们持股比例应归属于我们的留存收益,作一个非常粗略的估计:全年或许在 6500 万美元左右。这些留存收益很可能不会立即对证券的市场价格产生影响。但随着时间的推移,我们相信它们将具备切实的意义。
Based upon present holdings and present dividend rates - excluding any special items such as the GEICO proportional redemption last year - we would expect reported dividends from this group to be approximately $39 million in 1984. We can also make a very rough guess about the earnings this group will retain that will be attributable to our ownership: these may total about $65 million for the year. These retained earnings could well have no immediate effect on market prices of the securities. Over time, however, we feel they will have real meaning.
除了已列出的数字外,有关我们控股业务的信息见第 40 至 44 页的“管理层讨论”。其中最重要的是《布法罗晚报》、喜诗糖果和保险集团,下面我们将对它们作些重点讨论。
In addition to the figures already supplied, information regarding the businesses we control appears in Managements Discussion on pages 40-44. The most significant of these are Buffalo Evening News, Sees, and the Insurance Group, to which we will give some special attention here.
布法罗晚报
Buffalo Evening News
先澄清一点:我们公司的法定名称是 Buffalo Evening News, Inc.,但自一年多前我们推出早报版以来,这份报纸的名字就叫 Buffalo News(《布法罗新闻》)。
First, a clarification: our corporate name is Buffalo Evening News, Inc. but the name of the newspaper, since we began a morning edition a little over a year ago, is Buffalo News.
1983 年,《布法罗新闻》的税后利润率略高于 10% 的目标水平。这归因于两个因素:(1)由于有一大笔亏损结转,州所得税成本低于正常水平(该笔亏损现已全部用完);(2)新闻纸每吨成本大幅下降(一次未曾料到的偶然因素,1984 年将会逆转)。
In 1983 the News somewhat exceeded its targeted profit margin of 10% after tax. Two factors were responsible: (1) a state income tax cost that was subnormal because of a large loss carry-forward, now fully utilized, and (2) a large drop in the per-ton cost of newsprint (an unanticipated fluke that will be reversed in 1984).
尽管 1983 年我们的利润率,不过与《布法罗新闻》这类报纸的平均水平大致相当,但考虑到布法罗的经济与零售环境,这份报纸能有如此表现,仍是一项重大成就。
Although our profit margins in 1983 were about average for newspapers such as the News, the papers performance, nevertheless, was a significant achievement considering the economic and retailing environment in Buffalo.
布法罗聚集了众多重工业,而这一经济部门在近期的经济衰退中受创尤重,且复苏滞后。布法罗的消费者境况艰难,报纸的零售广告客户也同样如此:过去几年,它们的数量有所减少,许多存活下来的客户也削减了广告行数。
Buffalo has a concentration of heavy industry, a segment of the economy that was hit particularly hard by the recent recession and that has lagged the recovery. As Buffalo consumers have suffered, so also have the papers retailing customers. Their numbers have shrunk over the past few years and many of those surviving have cut their linage.
身处这样的环境,《布法罗新闻》却拥有一项突出的优势:深受公众认可。这点由报纸的“渗透率”来衡量——即社区内每天购买该报的家庭所占的百分比。我们的渗透率极为出色:截至 1983 年 9 月 30 日的六个月内,在全美最大的 100 家报纸中,《布法罗新闻》的工作日渗透率位居第一(该排名依据发行量稽核局汇编的“城区”数据)。
Within this environment the News has one exceptional strength: its acceptance by the public, a matter measured by the papers penetration ratio - the percentage of households within the community purchasing the paper each day. Our ratio is superb: for the six months ended September 30, 1983 the News stood number one in weekday penetration among the 100 largest papers in the United States (the ranking is based on city zone numbers compiled by the Audit Bureau of Circulations).
在解读这一排名时,有一点很重要:许多大城市拥有两家报纸,在这种情况下,其中任何一家的渗透率,都势必低于像布法罗这样只有一家报纸的城市。尽管如此,最大的 100 家报纸名单中包含了不少独享一城的报纸。在这些报纸中,《布法罗新闻》的渗透率高居全国榜首,远超许多全美最负盛名的日报。
In interpreting the standings, it is important to note that many large cities have two papers, and that in such cases the penetration of either paper is necessarily lower than if there were a single paper, as in Buffalo. Nevertheless, the list of the 100 largest papers includes many that have a city to themselves. Among these, the News is at the top nationally, far ahead of many of the countrys best-known dailies.
在这些大型日报的周日版中,《布法罗新闻》的渗透率排名第三——比许多知名报纸高出十到二十个百分点。布法罗的情况并非历来如此。以下显示了 1977 年之前以及当前时期布法罗的周日发行量。在早年那段时期,周日报是《信使快报》(那时《布法罗新闻》还没有出版周日版)。如今,自然是《布法罗新闻》。
Among Sunday editions of these same large dailies, the News ranks number three in penetration - ten to twenty percentage points ahead of many well-known papers. It was not always this way in Buffalo. Below we show Sunday circulation in Buffalo in the years prior to 1977 compared with the present period. In that earlier period the Sunday paper was the Courier-Express (the News was not then publishing a Sunday paper). Now, of course, it is the News.
平均周日发行量
Average Sunday Circulation
--------------------------
--------------------------
| 年份 | 发行量 |
|---|---|
| 1970 | 314,000 |
| 1971 | 306,000 |
| 1972 | 302,000 |
| 1973 | 290,000 |
| 1974 | 278,000 |
| 1975 | 269,000 |
| 1976 | 270,000 |
| 1984年(当前) | 376,000 |
| Average Sunday Circulation -------------------------- Year ---- | Circulation ----------- |
|---|---|
| 1970 | 314,000 |
| 1971 | 306,000 |
| 1972 | 302,000 |
| 1973 | 290,000 |
| 1974 | 278,000 |
| 1975 | 269,000 |
| 1976 | 270,000 |
| 1984 (Current) | 376,000 |
1984(当前) 376,000
1984 (Current) 376,000
在我们看来,一份报纸的渗透率,是衡量其经济特许权强弱的最佳指标。凡在本地大型零售商最看重的区域内渗透率奇高、而在别处发行量相对稀薄的报纸,对这些零售商而言,都是效率极高的广告投放对象。渗透率低的报纸,能向广告客户端出的说辞就乏力得多。
We believe a papers penetration ratio to be the best measure of the strength of its franchise. Papers with unusually high penetration in the geographical area that is of prime interest to major local retailers, and with relatively little circulation elsewhere, are exceptionally efficient buys for those retailers. Low-penetration papers have a far less compelling message to present to advertisers.
在我们看来,《布法罗新闻》在本地社区获得非同寻常的认可,主要归因于三个因素。其中第二点和第三点,或许也能解释为何在当年《信使快报》周日版还是本地唯一一份周日报时,《布法罗新闻》周日版反而更受欢迎:
<<<END P 3>>>
In our opinion, three factors largely account for the unusual acceptance of the News in the community. Among these, points 2 and 3 also may explain the popularity of the Sunday News compared to that of the Sunday Courier-Express when it was the sole Sunday paper:
(1)第一点与《布法罗新闻》自身的高下无关。布法罗的人口迁入与迁出都相对偏低。人口稳定的社区,比人来人往的社区更关切、更投入于本地事务——因此也更在意本地日报的内容。城市进出流动一旦加剧,渗透率就会下滑。
(1) The first point has nothing to do with merits of the News. Both emigration and immigration are relatively low in Buffalo. A stable population is more interested and involved in the activities of its community than is a shifting population - and, as a result, is more interested in the content of the local daily paper. Increase the movement in and out of a city and penetration ratios will fall.
(2)《布法罗新闻》以编辑水准与操守著称,这一声誉由我们的资深主编、传奇人物阿尔弗雷德·基尔希霍费尔(Alfred Kirchhofer)精心磨砺,又经默里·莱特(Murray Light)承续并发扬。这份声誉,对我们顶着根深蒂固的对手成功办起一份周日报至关重要。而若没有周日版,《布法罗新闻》长远来看根本活不下来。
(2) The News has a reputation for editorial quality and integrity that was honed by our longtime editor, the legendary Alfred Kirchhofer, and that has been preserved and extended by Murray Light. This reputation was enormously important to our success in establishing a Sunday paper against entrenched competition. And without a Sunday edition, the News would not have survived in the long run.
(3)《布法罗新闻》名副其实——它给的新闻分量非同一般。1983 年,我们的“新闻版面”(编辑内容,不含广告)占报纸全部内容(不计预印插页)的 50%。在那些主导各自市场、规模相当或更大的报纸里,据我们所知,新闻版面占比高过《布法罗新闻》的只有一家。全面的数据虽无从获取,但抽样显示,行业均值落在 30% 到 40% 的偏高一端。换句话说,逐版相比,我们给读者的新闻量比一般报纸多出 25% 以上。这种新闻密集的配比是刻意为之。过去十年,一些出版商为了做高利润率而砍削新闻版面。我们守住了自己的分量,今后也将一以贯之。只要写好、编好,充足的新闻会让我们的报纸对读者更有价值,也助推了我们那异乎寻常的渗透率。
(3) The News lives up to its name - it delivers a very unusual amount of news. During 1983, our news hole (editorial material - not ads) amounted to 50% of the newspapers content (excluding preprinted inserts). Among papers that dominate their markets and that are of comparable or larger size, we know of only one whose news hole percentage exceeds that of the News. Comprehensive figures are not available, but a sampling indicates an average percentage in the high 30s. In other words, page for page, our mix gives readers over 25% more news than the typical paper. This news-rich mixture is by intent. Some publishers, pushing for higher profit margins, have cut their news holes during the past decade. We have maintained ours and will continue to do so. Properly written and edited, a full serving of news makes our paper more valuable to the reader and contributes to our unusual penetration ratio.
尽管《布法罗新闻》的经济特许权根基雄厚,但要在 ROP 广告(印在报纸版面之内、区别于预印插页的广告)上再有增量,将极其艰难。1983 年,我们的预印插页广告猛增:行数从 930 万行升至 1640 万行,收入从 360 万美元升至 810 万美元。这一增长与全国大势一致,只是在我们这里,因承接了《信使快报》停刊后转来的业务而被放大。
Despite the strength of the News franchise, gains in ROP linage (advertising printed within the newspaper pages as contrasted to preprinted inserts) are going to be very difficult to achieve. We had an enormous gain in preprints during 1983: lines rose from 9.3 million to 16.4 million, revenues from $3.6 million to $8.1 million. These gains are consistent with national trends, but exaggerated in our case by business we picked up when the Courier-Express closed.
整体算来,从 ROP 转向预印插页,对我们的经济利益是负面的。预印插页盈利更薄,又更易受其他投递方式的竞争冲击。何况,ROP 行数一减,新闻的绝对版面空间也随之缩水(因为新闻版面占比恒定不变),报纸对读者的效用便打了折扣。
On balance, the shift from ROP to preprints has negative economic implications for us. Profitability on preprints is less and the business is more subject to competition from alternative means of delivery. Furthermore, a reduction in ROP linage means less absolute space devoted to news (since the news hole percentage remains constant), thereby reducing the utility of the paper to the reader.
斯坦·利普西(Stan Lipsey)于年中接替退休的亨利·厄本(Henry Urban),出任《布法罗新闻》发行人。当年我们推出周日版后陷入诉讼与亏损的那段黑暗日子里,亨利从未退缩过——那次创刊之举,报业里许多人都质疑其明智,连我们自家楼里也有人不看好。布法罗商界敬重亨利,所有为他效力过的人敬重他,查理和我也敬重他。斯坦与亨利共事多年,自 1969 年起便供职于伯克希尔·哈撒韦。从编辑到发行,报纸经营的一切细枝末节,他都亲力亲为。这个人选,再好不过了。
Stan Lipsey became Publisher of the Buffalo News at midyear upon the retirement of Henry Urban. Henry never flinched during the dark days of litigation and losses following our introduction of the Sunday paper - an introduction whose wisdom was questioned by many in the newspaper business, including some within our own building. Henry is admired by the Buffalo business community, hes admired by all who worked for him, and he is admired by Charlie and me. Stan worked with Henry for several years, and has worked for Berkshire Hathaway since 1969. He has been personally involved in all nuts-and-bolts aspects of the newspaper business from editorial to circulation. We couldnt do better.
喜诗糖果店
Sees Candy Shops
喜诗的财务业绩依旧卓尔不凡。这家公司既拥有一份宝贵而稳固的消费者特许权,也拥有一位同样宝贵而稳固的经理人。
The financial results at Sees continue to be exceptional. The business possesses a valuable and solid consumer franchise and a manager equally valuable and solid.
近几年,喜诗撞上两道要紧的难题,其中至少一道已在顺利化解之中。这道难题出在成本上——原材料成本除外。近年我们在原材料成本上占了便宜,当然,对手也一样占了。总有一天,反方向的坏消息会冷不丁找上门来。说到底,原材料成本大体不由我们掌控,因为无论价格怎么变,我们理所当然都会去买能买到的最好原料。产品质量,我们视若神明。
In recent years Sees has encountered two important problems, at least one of which is well on its way toward solution. That problem concerns costs, except those for raw materials. We have enjoyed a break on raw material costs in recent years though so, of course, have our competitors. One of these days we will get a nasty surprise in the opposite direction. In effect, raw material costs are largely beyond our control since we will, as a matter of course, buy the finest ingredients that we can, regardless of changes in their price levels. We regard product quality as sacred.
但别的成本则更可控,而正是在这一块,我们出了问题。按每磅计,过去几年我们的成本(不含原材料)涨幅,明显高过整体物价水平的涨幅。扭转这一势头,对我们的竞争地位和盈利潜力至关紧要。
But other kinds of costs are more controllable, and it is in this area that we have had problems. On a per-pound basis, our costs (not including those for raw materials) have increased in the last few years at a rate significantly greater than the increase in the general price level. It is vital to our competitive position and profit potential that we reverse this trend.
最近几个月,成本已被管控得好得多,我们有把握,1984 年这些成本的增速将低于通胀率。这份底气,来自我们与查克·哈金斯(Chuck Huggins)共事多年、对其管理才干的深知。接手那天起,我们就把担子交给了查克,他交出的成绩单堪称非凡,见下表:
In recent months much better control over costs has been attained and we feel certain that our rate of growth in these costs in 1984 will be below the rate of inflation. This confidence arises out of our long experience with the managerial talents of Chuck Huggins. We put Chuck in charge the day we took over, and his record has been simply extraordinary, as shown by the following table:
| 52-53 Week Year Ended About December 31 ------------------- | 销售收入 | 税后经营利润 | 糖果销售磅数 | 年末开业门店数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983年(53周)... | $133,531,000 | $13,699,000 | 24,651,000 | 207 |
| 1982 | 123,662,000 | 11,875,000 | 24,216,000 | 202 |
| 1981 | 112,578,000 | 10,779,000 | 24,052,000 | 199 |
| 1980 | 97,715,000 | 7,547,000 | 24,065,000 | 191 |
| 1979 | 87,314,000 | 6,330,000 | 23,985,000 | 188 |
| 1978 | 73,653,000 | 6,178,000 | 22,407,000 | 182 |
| 1977 | 62,886,000 | 6,154,000 | 20,921,000 | 179 |
| 1976年(53周)... | 56,333,000 | 5,569,000 | 20,553,000 | 173 |
| 1975 | 50,492,000 | 5,132,000 | 19,134,000 | 172 |
| 1974 | 41,248,000 | 3,021,000 | 17,883,000 | 170 |
| 1973 | 35,050,000 | 1,940,000 | 17,813,000 | 169 |
| 1972 | 31,337,000 | 2,083,000 | 16,954,000 | 167 |
| 52-53 Week Year Ended About December 31 ------------------- | Sales Revenues ------------ | Operating Profits After Taxes ----------- | Number of Pounds of Candy Sold ---------- | Number of Stores Open at Year End ----------- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 (53 weeks) ... | $133,531,000 | $13,699,000 | 24,651,000 | 207 |
| 1982 | 123,662,000 | 11,875,000 | 24,216,000 | 202 |
| 1981 | 112,578,000 | 10,779,000 | 24,052,000 | 199 |
| 1980 | 97,715,000 | 7,547,000 | 24,065,000 | 191 |
| 1979 | 87,314,000 | 6,330,000 | 23,985,000 | 188 |
| 1978 | 73,653,000 | 6,178,000 | 22,407,000 | 182 |
| 1977 | 62,886,000 | 6,154,000 | 20,921,000 | 179 |
| 1976 (53 weeks) ... | 56,333,000 | 5,569,000 | 20,553,000 | 173 |
| 1975 | 50,492,000 | 5,132,000 | 19,134,000 | 172 |
| 1974 | 41,248,000 | 3,021,000 | 17,883,000 | 170 |
| 1973 | 35,050,000 | 1,940,000 | 17,813,000 | 169 |
| 1972 | 31,337,000 | 2,083,000 | 16,954,000 | 167 |
正如表中所示,我们面对的另一道难题,是近年来销售磅数迟迟做不出有意义的增长。整个行业都有同样的问题。可多年来我们在这方面一向跑赢行业,如今却掉了队。
The other problem we face, as the table suggests, is our recent inability to achieve meaningful gains in pounds sold. The industry has the same problem. But for many years we outperformed the industry in this respect and now we are not.
过去四年,我们零售门店的磅数销量几乎年年原地踏步,尽管门店数目每年都略有增加(分销费用也水涨船高)。销售额当然涨了,因为我们大幅提了价。但衡量零售走势,我们看得最重的不是销售额,而是每家门店卖出的件数。以同店口径(只算两年都全年营业的门店)、所有数字都换算成 52 周年度来算,1983 年磅数下滑了 0.8%。这一小幅回落,已是我们自 1979 年以来最好的同店表现;自那时算起,累计降幅约为 8%。大宗订单业务约占我们总量的 25%,在整个 1970 年代磅数大涨之后,近年已趋于平台。
The poundage volume in our retail stores has been virtually unchanged each year for the past four, despite small increases every year in the number of shops (and in distribution expense as well). Of course, dollar volume has increased because we have raised prices significantly. But we regard the most important measure of retail trends to be units sold per store rather than dollar volume. On a same-store basis (counting only shops open throughout both years) with all figures adjusted to a 52-week year, poundage was down .8 of 1% during 1983. This small decline was our best same-store performance since 1979; the cumulative decline since then has been about 8%. Quantity-order volume, about 25% of our total, has plateaued in recent years following very large poundage gains throughout the 1970s.
这种销量停滞——零售门店与大宗订单两头都是——究竟有多少要归咎于我们的定价策略,又有多少要归咎于行业销量的停滞、经济衰退,以及我们在主销区本已占据的惊人市场份额,我们心里也没底。1984 年我们的提价幅度比过去几年温和得多,希望明年能向你们报出更好的销量数字。但眼下我们没有据以预测的依据。
We are not sure to what extent this flat volume - both in the retail shop area and the quantity order area - is due to our pricing policies and to what extent it is due to static industry volume, the recession, and the extraordinary share of market we already enjoy in our primary marketing area. Our price increase for 1984 is much more modest than has been the case in the past few years, and we hope that next year we can report better volume figures to you. But we have no basis to forecast these.
撇开销量的困扰不谈,喜诗的长处依旧众多而扎实。在我们的主销区西部,我们的糖果以巨大优势力压所有对手,广受偏爱。事实上,我们相信,大多数巧克力爱好者宁取它,也不要贵上两三倍的糖果。(糖果与股票一样,价格和价值可以是两回事;价格是你付出的,价值是你得到的。)我们门店的客户服务水准——全美各店都由我们自营,而非交给加盟商——与产品本身一样出色。热情、乐于助人的员工,和盒面上的商标一样,都是喜诗的标志。在一个需要我们雇用约 2000 名季节工的行当里,这绝非小成就。据我们所知,没有哪家规模相当的机构,能在客户服务质量上胜过查克·哈金斯和他的同事。
Despite the volume problem, Sees strengths are many and important. In our primary marketing area, the West, our candy is preferred by an enormous margin to that of any competitor. In fact, we believe most lovers of chocolate prefer it to candy costing two or three times as much. (In candy, as in stocks, price and value can differ; price is what you give, value is what you get.) The quality of customer service in our shops - operated throughout the country by us and not by franchisees is every bit as good as the product. Cheerful, helpful personnel are as much a trademark of Sees as is the logo on the box. Thats no small achievement in a business that requires us to hire about 2000 seasonal workers. We know of no comparably-sized organization that betters the quality of customer service delivered by Chuck Huggins and his associates.
因为 1984 年提价极为克制,我们预计喜诗今年的利润将与 1983 年大体持平。
Because we have raised prices so modestly in 1984, we expect Sees profits this year to be about the same as in 1983.
保险——自营业务
Insurance - Controlled Operations
我们既经营着几家保险公司,又对一家并非由我们经营的保险公司 GEICO 拥有重大经济利益。所有这些的结果可以一言以蔽之:就总体而言,凡是由我们经营、其承保结果反映的正是几年前由我拍板的那些决策的公司,业绩糟糕透顶。所幸,承保政策不受我左右的 GEICO,表现简直是一鸣惊人。你从这段小结里推出的结论,正是对的:几年前我犯下的一些严重错误,如今都回来算总账了。
We both operate insurance companies and have a large economic interest in an insurance business we dont operate, GEICO. The results for all can be summed up easily: in aggregate, the companies we operate and whose underwriting results reflect the consequences of decisions that were my responsibility a few years ago, had absolutely terrible results. Fortunately, GEICO, whose policies I do not influence, simply shot the lights out. The inference you draw from this summary is the correct one. I made some serious mistakes a few years ago that came home to roost.
整个保险业迎来了多年来最差的承保年景,见下表:
The industry had its worst underwriting year in a long time, as indicated by the table below:
| 保费收入年增长率 (%) | 扣除保单持有者红利后的综合成本率 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1972 | 10.2 | 96.2 |
| 1973 | 8.0 | 99.2 |
| 1974 | 6.2 | 105.4 |
| 1975 | 11.0 | 107.9 |
| 1976 | 21.9 | 102.4 |
| 1977 | 19.8 | 97.2 |
| 1978 | 12.8 | 97.5 |
| 1979 | 10.3 | 100.6 |
| 1980 | 6.0 | 103.1 |
| 1981 | 3.9 | 106.0 |
| 1982年(修订) | 4.4 | 109.7 |
| 1983年(估计) | 4.6 | 111.0 |
| Yearly Change in Premiums Written (%) ------------- | Combined Ratio after Policy- holder Dividends ---------------- | |
|---|---|---|
| 1972 | 10.2 | 96.2 |
| 1973 | 8.0 | 99.2 |
| 1974 | 6.2 | 105.4 |
| 1975 | 11.0 | 107.9 |
| 1976 | 21.9 | 102.4 |
| 1977 | 19.8 | 97.2 |
| 1978 | 12.8 | 97.5 |
| 1979 | 10.3 | 100.6 |
| 1980 | 6.0 | 103.1 |
| 1981 | 3.9 | 106.0 |
| 1982 (Revised) | 4.4 | 109.7 |
| 1983 (Estimated) | 4.6 | 111.0 |
来源:Best's Aggregates and Averages。
Source: Bests Aggregates and Averages.
Best 的数据几乎涵盖整个行业的经验,股份制公司、互助公司与相互保险公司皆在其中。综合成本率,是把保险总成本(已发生损失加费用)与保费收入相比得出的;比率低于 100 表示承保有盈利,高于 100 则表示亏损。
Bests data reflect the experience of practically the entire industry, including stock, mutual, and reciprocal companies. The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums; a ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit and one above 100 indicates a loss.
基于去年年报中列明的缘由,我们预计 1983 年这般糟糕的行业行情,在今后相当多年里都会大体如常。(用约吉·贝拉的话说:“这将是似曾相识,一切重来一遍。”)这并不是说我们认为这些数字不会上下起伏;它们必定会波动。但我们认为,在本个十年余下的岁月里,综合成本率的均值明显低于 1981—1983 年水平的可能性微乎其微。按我们对通胀的判断——在这一点上我们一如既往地悲观——行业保费总额必须每年增长约 10%,才不过是把损失率稳在现有水平而已。
For the reasons outlined in last years report, we expect the poor industry experience of 1983 to be more or less typical for a good many years to come. (As Yogi Berra put it: It will be deja vu all over again.) That doesnt mean we think the figures wont bounce around a bit; they are certain to. But we believe it highly unlikely that the combined ratio during the balance of the decade will average significantly below the 1981-1983 level. Based on our expectations regarding inflation - and we are as pessimistic as ever on that front - industry premium volume must grow about 10% annually merely to stabilize loss ratios at present levels.
我们自己 1983 年的综合成本率是 121。既然迈克·戈德堡新近接手了保险业务的大部分责任,若能把我们的短板算到他头上而非我头上,对我倒是好事一桩。可惜的是,正如我们屡次点明的,保险业有着漫长的滞后期。业务方针纵可更改,人事纵可优化,也须经过相当长一段时间,效果才会显现。(正是这一行当特性,让我们在 GEICO 上大赚了一笔;早在事情真正发生之前,我们就能勾勒出它十有八九会怎样演变。)所以,1983 年这份成绩的根子,在两年乃至更早之前的经营与人事决策——那时保险集团的经营,还由我直接负责。
Our own combined ratio in 1983 was 121. Since Mike Goldberg recently took over most of the responsibility for the insurance operation, it would be nice for me if our shortcomings could be placed at his doorstep rather than mine. But unfortunately, as we have often pointed out, the insurance business has a long lead-time. Though business policies may be changed and personnel improved, a significant period must pass before the effects are seen. (This characteristic of the business enabled us to make a great deal of money in GEICO; we could picture what was likely to happen well before it actually occurred.) So the roots of the 1983 results are operating and personnel decisions made two or more years back when I had direct managerial responsibility for the insurance group.
尽管总体成绩不佳,我们仍有几位经理人干得着实出色。罗兰·米勒执掌国民赔偿公司与国民火灾海事保险公司的汽车险及一般责任险业务,在对手同类业务纷纷恶化之际,把成绩做出了改善。此外,我们那家羽翼未丰的科罗拉多本州公司——大陆分水岭保险公司——由汤姆·罗利掌舵,看来注定要成气候。迈克一年多前发掘了他,这是一笔要紧的收获。
Despite our poor results overall, several of our managers did truly outstanding jobs. Roland Miller guided the auto and general liability business of National Indemnity Company and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company to improved results, while those of competitors deteriorated. In addition, Tom Rowley at Continental Divide Insurance - our fledgling Colorado homestate company - seems certain to be a winner. Mike found him a little over a year ago, and he was an important acquisition.
我们最近在再保险交易中活跃了起来——并盼着日后更为活跃——在这类交易里,买方最该操心的,是卖方长期的偿付信用。在这样的交易中,我们首屈一指的财务实力,理应让我们成为索赔方与保险公司的第一选择——毕竟他们在此后漫长的岁月里,都得仰赖再保险公司的承诺。
We have become active recently - and hope to become much more active - in reinsurance transactions where the buyers overriding concern should be the sellers long-term creditworthiness. In such transactions our premier financial strength should make us the number one choice of both claimants and insurers who must rely on the reinsurers promises for a great many years to come.
这类业务的一大来源是结构性理赔——一种损失清偿的安排:索赔人不是一次性拿走一笔总额,而是定期领款(几乎总是按月,终身领取)。这种清偿方式对索赔人有重要的税务好处,也能防止他把一大笔一次性款项挥霍一空。通常,其中还内置了一定的通胀保护。索赔人往往身受重伤,因此这笔延续数十年的定期给付,必须万无一失地安全。我们相信自己提供的保障无与伦比。据我们所知,再没有别的保险公司——哪怕总资产比我们大得多——拥有我们这样的财务实力。
A major source of such business is structured settlements - a procedure for settling losses under which claimants receive periodic payments (almost always monthly, for life) rather than a single lump sum settlement. This form of settlement has important tax advantages for the claimant and also prevents his squandering a large lump-sum payment. Frequently, some inflation protection is built into the settlement. Usually the claimant has been seriously injured, and thus the periodic payments must be unquestionably secure for decades to come. We believe we offer unparalleled security. No other insurer we know of - even those with much larger gross assets - has our financial strength.
我们还认为,凭这份财务实力,我们理应受到那些想要转移损失准备金的公司的青睐。在这类交易里,别的保险公司一次性付款给我们,由我们承接大批到期业务日后应赔付的全部(或指定部分)损失。同样,把这些索赔转出去的公司,也需要确信受让方在往后许多年里都财力稳健。同样,在我们看来,多数争揽此类业务的对手,财务状况都远逊于我们。
We also think our financial strength should recommend us to companies wishing to transfer loss reserves. In such transactions, other insurance companies pay us lump sums to assume all (or a specified portion of) future loss payments applicable to large blocks of expired business. Here also, the company transferring such claims needs to be certain of the transferees financial strength for many years to come. Again, most of our competitors soliciting such business appear to us to have a financial condition that is materially inferior to ours.
结构性理赔与承接损失准备金,日后有望对我们举足轻重。鉴于其潜在规模,也因这些业务相对保费收入能生出大量投资收益,我们将在保险分部数据中单列一行,列示这些业务的承保结果;向你们报告综合成本率时,也会把它们的影响剔除。结构性理赔或损失准备金交易,我们分文利润都不“预提”入账,所有相关管理费用一律当期列支。这两项业务都由国民赔偿公司的唐·沃斯特掌管。
Potentially, structured settlements and the assumption of loss reserves could become very significant to us. Because of their potential size and because these operations generate large amounts of investment income compared to premium volume, we will show underwriting results from those businesses on a separate line in our insurance segment data. We also will exclude their effect in reporting our combined ratio to you. We front end no profit on structured settlement or loss reserve transactions, and all attributable overhead is expensed currently. Both businesses are run by Don Wurster at National Indemnity Company.
保险——GEICO
Insurance - GEICO
1983 年,GEICO 的表现有多好,我们自家保险业务的成绩就有多差。行业综合成本率是 111,而 GEICO 在为保单持有人红利做了一笔大额自愿计提之后,综合成本率仍做到 96。几年前,我根本想不到 GEICO 能把行业甩开这么远。它的这种优势,源自一个确实出类拔萃的商业构想与一支出类拔萃的管理团队的结合。
Geicos performance during 1983 was as good as our own insurance performance was poor. Compared to the industrys combined ratio of 111, GEICO wrote at 96 after a large voluntary accrual for policyholder dividends. A few years ago I would not have thought GEICO could so greatly outperform the industry. Its superiority reflects the combination of a truly exceptional business idea and an exceptional management.
杰克·伯恩和比尔·斯奈德在承保上保持着极不寻常的纪律性(其中关键一条,是足额、恰当地计提损失准备金),现在他们的努力又因新业务大幅增长而得到了进一步的回报。同样重要的是,卢·辛普森在保险投资经理中堪称翘楚。这三个人凑在一起,是一支了不起的团队。
Jack Byrne and Bill Snyder have maintained extraordinary discipline in the underwriting area (including, crucially, provision for full and proper loss reserves), and their efforts are now being further rewarded by significant gains in new business. Equally important, Lou Simpson is the class of the field among insurance investment managers. The three of them are some team.
我们持有 GEICO 约三分之一的权益。这让我们在公司的保费总额中占有 2.7 亿美元的份额,比我们自营的保费规模高出约 80%。也就是说,我们保险业务的大头,来自全美最优质的那张保险账簿。这一事实,丝毫没有减轻我们改善自身经营的必要性。
We have approximately a one-third interest in GEICO. That gives us a $270 million share in the companys premium volume, an amount some 80% larger than our own volume. Thus, the major portion of our total insurance business comes from the best insurance book in the country. This fact does not moderate by an iota the need for us to improve our own operation.
股票拆分与交易活动
Stock Splits and Stock Activity
经常有人问我们,伯克希尔为什么不拆股。问题背后隐含的假设通常是,拆股是对股东有利的举动。我们不这么认为。让我来解释为什么。
We often are asked why Berkshire does not split its stock. The assumption behind this question usually appears to be that a split would be a pro-shareholder action. We disagree. Let me tell you why.
我们的目标之一,是让伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票价格与它的内在商业价值理性相关。(但请注意,是“理性相关”,不是“完全一致”:倘若那些备受推崇的公司在市场上普遍以大幅低于价值的价格交易,伯克希尔很可能也会被类似定价。)理性股价的关键,在于理性的股东——无论是现有的还是未来的。
One of our goals is to have Berkshire Hathaway stock sell at a price rationally related to its intrinsic business value. (But note rationally related, not identical: if well-regarded companies are generally selling in the market at large discounts from value, Berkshire might well be priced similarly.) The key to a rational stock price is rational shareholders, both current and prospective.
如果一家公司股票的持有者、或被它吸引来的潜在买家容易做出非理性的或情绪化的决定,那么时不时就会冒出一些相当愚蠢的股价。躁郁型的人格催生出躁郁型的估值。这类异常现象也许有助于我们买卖其他公司的股票。但我们认为,无论是为了你们的利益还是我们的利益,都应尽量减少它们在伯克希尔股票上出现的频率。
If the holders of a companys stock and/or the prospective buyers attracted to it are prone to make irrational or emotion- based decisions, some pretty silly stock prices are going to appear periodically. Manic-depressive personalities produce manic-depressive valuations. Such aberrations may help us in buying and selling the stocks of other companies. But we think it is in both your interest and ours to minimize their occurrence in the market for Berkshire.
要获得高质量的股东绝非易事。阿斯特夫人可以挑选她的 400 位座上宾,但任何人都可以买入任何一只股票。进入股东“俱乐部”的成员,你没法对他们的智力水平、情绪稳定度、道德敏感度或着装得体与否进行筛选。因此,股东优生学乍看起来是一件毫无希望的事。
To obtain only high quality shareholders is no cinch. Mrs. Astor could select her 400, but anyone can buy any stock. Entering members of a shareholder club cannot be screened for intellectual capacity, emotional stability, moral sensitivity or acceptable dress. Shareholder eugenics, therefore, might appear to be a hopeless undertaking.
不过,在很大程度上,我们相信,只要我们始终如一地对外沟通我们的企业经营理念和所有权理念——并且不掺杂任何与之相矛盾的信息——然后让自我筛选机制自然发挥作用,高质量的股东群体是可以吸引并维持住的。举个例子,同样一场音乐演出,如果广告上说它是歌剧,吸引来的观众会与广告说它是摇滚音乐会时大不相同——尽管两种演出的票,谁都可以去买。
In large part, however, we feel that high quality ownership can be attracted and maintained if we consistently communicate our business and ownership philosophy - along with no other conflicting messages - and then let self selection follow its course. For example, self selection will draw a far different crowd to a musical event advertised as an opera than one advertised as a rock concert even though anyone can buy a ticket to either.
通过我们的政策和沟通——也就是我们的“广告”——我们努力吸引那些能理解我们经营方式、态度和期望的投资者。(同样重要的是,我们也努力劝退那些无法理解的投资者。)我们想要的是那些把自己视为企业所有者、怀着长期持有打算而投资公司的人。而且,我们想要的是那些眼睛盯着企业经营成果、而非股票市场价格的人。
Through our policies and communications - our advertisements - we try to attract investors who will understand our operations, attitudes and expectations. (And, fully as important, we try to dissuade those who wont.) We want those who think of themselves as business owners and invest in companies with the intention of staying a long time. And, we want those who keep their eyes focused on business results, not market prices.
具备这些特质的投资者只占少数,但我们这里聚集了一群出类拔萃的这类人。我相信,我们 90% 以上——很可能超过 95%——的股份,是由五年前就已持有伯克希尔或蓝筹印花股票的人所持有。我还猜测,超过 95% 的股份,由那些对伯克希尔的持仓至少是其第二大持仓两倍的投资者所持有。在那些至少拥有数千名公众股东、市值超过 10 亿美元的公司中,论股东在思维和行为上像所有者的程度,我们几乎肯定是领先的。一个本已具备这些特质的股东群体,想要再进一步提升其质量,并非易事。
Investors possessing those characteristics are in a small minority, but we have an exceptional collection of them. I believe well over 90% - probably over 95% - of our shares are held by those who were shareholders of Berkshire or Blue Chip five years ago. And I would guess that over 95% of our shares are held by investors for whom the holding is at least double the size of their next largest. Among companies with at least several thousand public shareholders and more than $1 billion of market value, we are almost certainly the leader in the degree to which our shareholders think and act like owners. Upgrading a shareholder group that possesses these characteristics is not easy.
倘若我们拆股,或采取其他把心思放在股价而非企业价值上的举动,招进来的这批买家,素质只会比出去的那批卖家更差。1300 美元一股,买不起一股伯克希尔的投资者寥寥无几。假如我们按 100 拆 1,好让一位想买一股的人能买到 100 股,他真会因此更划算吗?凡这么想、并因拆股或对拆股的预期而买入的人,必定拉低我们现有股东群体的成色。(把我们现有一些头脑清醒的成员,换成一批见风使舵的新人——他们重纸面轻价值,觉得九张 10 美元钞票比一张 100 美元钞票更有钱——我们的股东群体难道真能因此改善?)出于非价值理由买入的人,多半也会出于非价值理由卖出。他们一旦在场,只会放大那些与基础业务毫不相干的剧烈价格波动。
Were we to split the stock or take other actions focusing on stock price rather than business value, we would attract an entering class of buyers inferior to the exiting class of sellers. At $1300, there are very few investors who cant afford a Berkshire share. Would a potential one-share purchaser be better off if we split 100 for 1 so he could buy 100 shares? Those who think so and who would buy the stock because of the split or in anticipation of one would definitely downgrade the quality of our present shareholder group. (Could we really improve our shareholder group by trading some of our present clear-thinking members for impressionable new ones who, preferring paper to value, feel wealthier with nine $10 bills than with one $100 bill?) People who buy for non-value reasons are likely to sell for non-value reasons. Their presence in the picture will accentuate erratic price swings unrelated to underlying business developments.
我们会努力避免那些吸引短线关注股价的买家的政策,并努力遵循那些能吸引见识广博、关注企业价值的长期投资者的政策。正如你们当初是在一个由理性、见识广博的投资者组成的市场里买入伯克希尔股票一样,你们理应有机会——假如哪天想卖出的话——在同样的市场里卖出。我们会努力保持这样一个市场的存在。
We will try to avoid policies that attract buyers with a short-term focus on our stock price and try to follow policies that attract informed long-term investors focusing on business values. just as you purchased your Berkshire shares in a market populated by rational informed investors, you deserve a chance to sell - should you ever want to - in the same kind of market. We will work to keep it in existence.
股票市场的一大讽刺,在于对交易活跃度的强调。券商们使用“变现性”“流动性”等词汇,对股票换手率高的公司大加赞美(那些填不满你钱包的人,倒是能信心十足地填满你的耳朵)。但投资者应该明白,对庄家有利的事情,对赌客未必有利。一个过度活跃的股票市场,是实业的扒手。
One of the ironies of the stock market is the emphasis on activity. Brokers, using terms such as marketability and liquidity, sing the praises of companies with high share turnover (those who cannot fill your pocket will confidently fill your ear). But investors should understand that what is good for the croupier is not good for the customer. A hyperactive stock market is the pickpocket of enterprise.
举个例子,假设有一家典型的公司,净资产收益率比方说是 12%。再假设它的股票年换手率极高,达到 100%。如果买卖这只股票各一次分别提取 1% 的佣金(低价股的佣金费率可能更高得多),并且这只股票按账面价值进行交易,那么我们假设的这家公司的股东,每年整体上将为了那个转让所有权的“特权”,付出相当于公司净资产 2% 的代价。这种交易活动对企业的盈利毫无贡献,却意味着那 12% 盈利的六分之一,因所有权转让的“摩擦”成本而从股东手中流失。(而且这个计算还未计入期权交易,它会把摩擦成本推得更高。)
For example, consider a typical company earning, say, 12% on equity. Assume a very high turnover rate in its shares of 100% per year. If a purchase and sale of the stock each extract commissions of 1% (the rate may be much higher on low-priced stocks) and if the stock trades at book value, the owners of our hypothetical company will pay, in aggregate, 2% of the companys net worth annually for the privilege of transferring ownership. This activity does nothing for the earnings of the business, and means that 1/6 of them are lost to the owners through the frictional cost of transfer. (And this calculation does not count option trading, which would increase frictional costs still further.)
这一切,构成了一场代价颇为高昂的抢椅子游戏。你能想象吗,如果一个政府部门要对公司或投资者的盈利新征一道 16⅔% 的税,会激起何等痛苦的哀号?而通过市场上的这些活动,投资者们自己就可以对自己课征一道效果相当的税。
All that makes for a rather expensive game of musical chairs. Can you imagine the agonized cry that would arise if a governmental unit were to impose a new 16 2/3% tax on earnings of corporations or investors? By market activity, investors can impose upon themselves the equivalent of such a tax.
成交量达 1 亿股的日子(把场外交易算进去,这样的量放在今日反倒是低得反常),对所有者是祸而非福——因为它意味着,比起 5000 万股的日子,所有者为换椅子付出的代价翻了一倍。倘若 1 亿股的日子持续整整一年,且每笔买卖的平均成本为每股 15 美分,那么投资者合计缴纳的“换椅子税”将高达约 75 亿美元——这笔钱,大致相当于埃克森、通用汽车、美孚和德士古这四家《财富》500 强最大公司 1982 年的利润总和。
Days when the market trades 100 million shares (and that kind of volume, when over-the-counter trading is included, is today abnormally low) are a curse for owners, not a blessing - for they mean that owners are paying twice as much to change chairs as they are on a 50-million-share day. If 100 million- share days persist for a year and the average cost on each purchase and sale is 15 cents a share, the chair-changing tax for investors in aggregate would total about $7.5 billion - an amount roughly equal to the combined 1982 profits of Exxon, General Motors, Mobil and Texaco, the four largest companies in the Fortune 500.
这几家公司 1982 年底的合并净资产为 750 亿美元,占整个《财富》500 强净资产和净利润的 12% 以上。按我们的假设,投资者作为一个整体,每年都会为了满足自己对“金融来回倒腾”的嗜好,而白白放弃这一庞大资本额所产生的全部盈利。此外,每年超过 20 亿美元的投资管理费——这笔钱是用来买“换椅子”建议的——则要让投资者放弃五大银行机构(花旗公司、美洲银行、大通曼哈顿、汉华实业和摩根大通)的全部盈利。这些代价昂贵的活动,或许能决定谁来分这块饼,却无法将饼本身做大。
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These companies had a combined net worth of $75 billion at yearend 1982 and accounted for over 12% of both net worth and net income of the entire Fortune 500 list. Under our assumption investors, in aggregate, every year forfeit all earnings from this staggering sum of capital merely to satisfy their penchant for financial flip-flopping. In addition, investment management fees of over $2 billion annually - sums paid for chair-changing advice - require the forfeiture by investors of all earnings of the five largest banking organizations (Citicorp, Bank America, Chase Manhattan, Manufacturers Hanover and J. P. Morgan). These expensive activities may decide who eats the pie, but they dont enlarge it.
(那套“把饼做大”的说辞我们也知道,它声称这类活动提升了资本配置过程的理性。我们认为这套说辞似是而非;总的来看,过度活跃的股市非但没能理性配置资本,反倒把饼越做越小。亚当·斯密相信,自由市场里一切非合谋的行为都受一只“看不见的手”指引,把经济推向最大的进步;而我们的看法是,赌场式的市场与一触即发的投资操作,更像一只“看不见的脚”,绊住并拖慢了本在前行的经济。)
(We are aware of the pie-expanding argument that says that such activities improve the rationality of the capital allocation process. We think that this argument is specious and that, on balance, hyperactive equity markets subvert rational capital allocation and act as pie shrinkers. Adam Smith felt that all noncollusive acts in a free market were guided by an invisible hand that led an economy to maximum progress; our view is that casino-type markets and hair-trigger investment management act as an invisible foot that trips up and slows down a forward-moving economy.)
不妨把过度活跃的股票与伯克希尔做个对比。我们股票目前的买卖价差约为 30 个点,即略高于 2%。视交易规模的大小,伯克希尔股票卖家获得的收入与买家支付的成本之间的差额,可能从 4%(只涉及少量股票的交易)一路下降到大约 1.5%(在大额交易中,可以通过协商同时压缩做市商价差和经纪商佣金)。由于大部分伯克希尔股票的交易规模都相当大,因此所有交易的平均价差可能不超过 2%。
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Contrast the hyperactive stock with Berkshire. The bid-and- ask spread in our stock currently is about 30 points, or a little over 2%. Depending on the size of the transaction, the difference between proceeds received by the seller of Berkshire and cost to the buyer may range downward from 4% (in trading involving only a few shares) to perhaps 1 1/2% (in large trades where negotiation can reduce both the market-makers spread and the brokers commission). Because most Berkshire shares are traded in fairly large transactions, the spread on all trading probably does not average more than 2%.
与此同时,伯克希尔股票的真实换手率(不含交易商之间的交易、赠与和遗赠)大约每年 3%。这样算下来,我们的所有者每年合计为转手这份“特权”所付,约为伯克希尔市值的万分之六。按这个非常粗略的估算,是 90 万美元——不是一笔小数目,却远低于平均水平。拆股则会推高这笔成本,拉低我们股东群体的成色,还会助长一种与内在商业价值挂钩得更松散的股价。我们看不出有任何足以抵偿的好处。
Meanwhile, true turnover in Berkshire stock (excluding inter-dealer transactions, gifts and bequests) probably runs 3% per year. Thus our owners, in aggregate, are paying perhaps 6/100 of 1% of Berkshires market value annually for transfer privileges. By this very rough estimate, thats $900,000 - not a small cost, but far less than average. Splitting the stock would increase that cost, downgrade the quality of our shareholder population, and encourage a market price less consistently related to intrinsic business value. We see no offsetting advantages.
杂项
Miscellaneous
去年在这一节里,我登了一则小广告,招揽收购标的。在我们的传媒业务里,我们总对广告客户说,重复是见效的关键(此言不虚),所以这里我们把收购标准再重复一遍。
Last year in this section I ran a small ad to encourage acquisition candidates. In our communications businesses we tell our advertisers that repetition is a key to results (which it is), so we will again repeat our acquisition criteria.
我们偏好:(1)大额收购(税后利润至少 500 万美元);(2)已被证明的稳定盈利能力(我们对未来预测兴趣寥寥,对“困境反转”的情形同样不感兴趣);(3)几乎不靠或全然不靠负债、就能取得良好净资产收益率的企业;(4)现成的管理层(这一条我们供不上);(5)简单的生意(技术含量一多,我们就看不懂了);(6)一个报价(价格不明时,哪怕只是初步谈一谈,我们也不想白白耗费自己或卖方的时间)。
We prefer: (1) large purchases (at least $5 million of after-tax earnings), (2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are turn-around situations), (3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt, (4) management in place (we cant supply it), (5) simple businesses (if theres lots of technology, we wont understand it), (6) an offering price (we dont want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).
我们不会搞敌意收购。我们可以承诺全程保密,并极快给出答复——通常五分钟之内——告诉对方我们是否有意。我们偏好现金收购,但若换回的内在商业价值不低于付出,也会考虑增发股票。我们欢迎有意的卖方,去找那些过去与我们打过交道的人打听打听。对的生意——加上对的人——我们能给它一个好归宿。
We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily within five minutes - as to whether were interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuance of stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. We invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. For the right business - and the right people - we can provide a good home.
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约 96.4% 的合资格股份参与了我们 1983 年的股东指定捐赠计划。依此计划作出的捐赠总额——于 1984 年初拨付,却已全额计入 1983 年费用——为 3,066,501 美元,共 1353 家慈善机构受益。若以参与股份的比例来衡量,响应之踊跃可谓出奇地好;但若以参与股东人数的比例来衡量,就没那么理想了。个中缘由,很可能是经由合并新增的大批股东,对这套计划还不熟悉。我们敦促新股东阅读第 52—53 页对该计划的说明。
About 96.4% of all eligible shares participated in our 1983 shareholder-designated contributions program. The total contributions made pursuant to this program - disbursed in the early days of 1984 but fully expensed in 1983 - were $3,066,501, and 1353 charities were recipients. Although the response measured by the percentage of shares participating was extraordinarily good, the response measured by the percentage of holders participating was not as good. The reason may well be the large number of new shareholders acquired through the merger and their lack of familiarity with the program. We urge new shareholders to read the description of the program on pages 52- 53.
若您有意参与今后的计划,我们强烈建议您立刻确认:您的股份是以实际所有人的名义登记,而非登记在券商或代名人名下。凡在 1984 年 9 月 28 日仍未如此登记的股份,将没有资格参与任何 1984 年的计划。
If you wish to participate in future programs, we strongly urge that you immediately make sure that your shares are registered in the actual owners name, not in street or nominee name. Shares not so registered on September 28, 1984 will not be eligible for any 1984 program.
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蓝筹印花与伯克希尔的合并进行得天衣无缝。两家公司投票反对合并的股份都不足千分之一,也无人提出评估请求。1983 年,我们已从这次合并中收获了一些税务上的效益,预计今后还会更多。
The Blue Chip/Berkshire merger went off without a hitch. Less than one-tenth of 1% of the shares of each company voted against the merger, and no requests for appraisal were made. In 1983, we gained some tax efficiency from the merger and we expect to gain more in the future.
这次合并还有一处有趣的旁枝:伯克希尔如今的流通股为 1,146,909 股,而 1965 财年初——即现任管理层接手那一年——为 1,137,778 股。当年你每持有公司 1% 的股份,如今仍持有 0.99%。也就是说,今天的全部资产——《布法罗新闻》、喜诗糖果、内布拉斯加家具城、保险集团、13 亿美元的可流通股票,等等——都是在原有纺织资产之上添置的,而原有股东几乎未遭任何净稀释。
One interesting sidelight to the merger: Berkshire now has 1,146,909 shares outstanding compared to 1,137,778 shares at the beginning of fiscal 1965, the year present management assumed responsibility. For every 1% of the company you owned at that time, you now would own .99%. Thus, all of todays assets - the News, Sees, Nebraska Furniture Mart, the Insurance Group, $1.3 billion in marketable stocks, etc. - have been added to the original textile assets with virtually no net dilution to the original owners.
前蓝筹印花的股东能加入我们,我们喜不自胜。为助您了解伯克希尔·哈撒韦,我们乐意奉上《1977—1981 年年报致股东信汇编》和/或《1982 年年报》。索取请函寄公司:内布拉斯加州奥马哈市基维特广场 1440 号,邮编 68131。
We are delighted to have the former Blue Chip shareholders join us. To aid in your understanding of Berkshire Hathaway, we will be glad to send you the Compendium of Letters from the Annual Reports of 1977-1981, and/or the 1982 Annual report. Direct your request to the Company at 1440 Kiewit Plaza, Omaha, Nebraska 68131.
沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席
1984 年 3 月 14 日
Warren E. Buffett March 14, 1984 Chairman of the Board