1985 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 13294 词
译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文,也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。
打开来源正文

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

各位或许还记得去年年报里那份格外乐观的论调:当时手头没什么大动作,但过往经验告诉我们,时不时会冒出个大机会。这套精心筹划的公司战略,在 1985 年收效显著。本报告后面的章节将分别探讨:(a)我们买入大都会/美国广播公司(Capital Cities/ABC)一大笔股份,(b)我们收购斯科特-费泽(Scott & Fetzer),(c)我们大手笔、长期参与消防员基金保险公司(Fireman's Fund)的保险业务,以及(d)我们卖出所持的通用食品(General Foods)股票。

You may remember the wildly upbeat message of last year’s report: nothing much was in the works but our experience had been that something big popped up occasionally. This carefully- crafted corporate strategy paid off in 1985. Later sections of this report discuss (a) our purchase of a major position in Capital Cities/ABC, (b) our acquisition of Scott & Fetzer, (c) our entry into a large, extended term participation in the insurance business of Fireman’s Fund, and (d) our sale of our stock in General Foods.

这一年,我们的净资产增加了 6.136 亿美元,增幅 48.2%。哈雷彗星恰在此时造访,与这一百分比增幅相映成趣,倒也合宜:这两样东西,我这辈子都不会再见到第二回了。过去二十一年(即现任管理层接手以来),我们的每股账面价值从 19.46 美元增至 1643.71 美元,年复合增长率 23.2%——这同样是一个不会再重现的百分比。

Our gain in net worth during the year was $613.6 million, or 48.2%. It is fitting that the visit of Halley’s Comet coincided with this percentage gain: neither will be seen again in my lifetime. Our gain in per-share book value over the last twenty- one years (that is, since present management took over) has been from $19.46 to $1643.71, or 23.2% compounded annually, another percentage that will not be repeated.

有两个因素,使得未来任何接近这一增速的回报都无从实现。第一个因素——或许是暂时的——是相较于 1964 至 1984 年大部分时间里盛行的市场,如今的股市提供的机会要少得多。当下,我们已找不到明显低估的股票来充实保险公司的投资组合了。目前的局面,与大约十年前截然相反——那时的唯一问题,是在一堆便宜货里该选哪一个。

Two factors make anything approaching this rate of gain unachievable in the future. One factor probably transitory - is a stock market that offers very little opportunity compared to the markets that prevailed throughout much of the 1964-1984 period. Today we cannot find significantly-undervalued equities to purchase for our insurance company portfolios. The current situation is 180 degrees removed from that existing about a decade ago, when the only question was which bargain to choose.

市场这一变化,对我们现有组合同样有负面影响。在 1974 年的年报里,我还可以这样写:“我们认为,几项主要持股未来数年有着大幅升值的巨大潜力。”如今这话我讲不出来了。诚然,我们的保险公司目前持有的主要公司,其基础经济特质卓越、管理层出类拔萃,一如 1974 年那批持股。但这些长处,如今市场价格已慷慨地给予了估值,而在 1974 年却被视若无物。以今天的估值水平,意味着我们的保险公司再无机会在投资组合上取得过去那种量级的收益。

This change in the market also has negative implications for our present portfolio. In our 1974 annual report I could say: “We consider several of our major holdings to have great potential for significantly increased values in future years.” I can’t say that now. It’s true that our insurance companies currently hold major positions in companies with exceptional underlying economics and outstanding managements, just as they did in 1974. But current market prices generously appraise these attributes, whereas they were ignored in 1974. Today’s valuations mean that our insurance companies have no chance for future portfolio gains on the scale of those achieved in the past.

第二个负面因素,影响要大得多,那便是我们的规模。我们目前的权益资本是十年前的二十多倍。而商业世界有一条铁律:规模增长,终将拖累超常的经济回报。只需看看那些高回报公司的历史——哪怕只是积累了 10 亿美元权益资本之后——依我所知,没有一家能在随后十年里,一边将全部或几乎全部盈利用于再投资,一边仍能维持 20% 或更高的净资产收益率。恰恰相反,为了维持高回报,这类公司不得不以分红或回购的方式吐出大量资本。倘若所有盈利都能按照这些卓越企业所享有的丰厚回报率进行再投资,那本会让股东的日子好过得多。但这些公司就是拿不出足够多的高回报机会,来使其成为可能。

The second negative factor, far more telling, is our size. Our equity capital is more than twenty times what it was only ten years ago. And an iron law of business is that growth eventually dampens exceptional economics. just look at the records of high- return companies once they have amassed even $1 billion of equity capital. None that I know of has managed subsequently, over a ten-year period, to keep on earning 20% or more on equity while reinvesting all or substantially all of its earnings. Instead, to sustain their high returns, such companies have needed to shed a lot of capital by way of either dividends or repurchases of stock. Their shareholders would have been far better off if all earnings could have been reinvested at the fat returns earned by these exceptional businesses. But the companies simply couldn’t turn up enough high-return opportunities to make that possible.

它们的难题,也正是我们的难题。去年我告诉过各位,在接下来的十年里,我们需要赚到 39 亿美元利润,才能实现 15% 的年化回报。对应到眼下这新的十年,这个数字是 57 亿美元——增长了 48%,这一增幅在数学上必然与我们 1985 年资本基数的增长一致。(这里给个参照:撇开石油公司不算,过去十年间,全美只有大约 15 家企业实现过 57 亿美元以上的盈利。)

Their problem is our problem. Last year I told you that we needed profits of $3.9 billion over the ten years then coming up to earn 15% annually. The comparable figure for the ten years now ahead is $5.7 billion, a 48% increase that corresponds - as it must mathematically - to the growth in our capital base during 1985. (Here’s a little perspective: leaving aside oil companies, only about 15 U.S. businesses have managed to earn over $5.7 billion during the past ten years.)

我的搭档、与我共同管理伯克希尔的查理·芒格,和我对公司能否取得优于美国企业整体的回报率,都抱有比较乐观的预期。只要这样的回报还在,公司留存所有盈利,各位股东便会从中受益。我们有几样有利条件:(1)我们不必为季度或年度数字操心,而是可以专注于任何能使长期价值最大化的行动;(2)我们可以把生意拓展到任何合理的领域——我们的范围不受历史、结构或固有观念的局限;以及(3)我们热爱自己的工作。这些都有助益。即便如此,要平均实现我们所期望的 15%,我们仍需十足的运气——远比当年取得 23.2% 回报时所需要的运气多得多。

Charlie Munger, my partner in managing Berkshire, and I are reasonably optimistic about Berkshire’s ability to earn returns superior to those earned by corporate America generally, and you will benefit from the company’s retention of all earnings as long as those returns are forthcoming. We have several things going for us: (1) we don’t have to worry about quarterly or annual figures but, instead, can focus on whatever actions will maximize long-term value; (2) we can expand the business into any areas that make sense - our scope is not circumscribed by history, structure, or concept; and (3) we love our work. All of these help. Even so, we will also need a full measure of good fortune to average our hoped-for 15% - far more good fortune than was required for our past 23.2%.

投资这道方程式里,还有一项因素值得一提,它关系到近期买入我们股票的人。历史上,伯克希尔的股价一直略低于内在商业价值。价格处在该水平时,买家可以确信(只要这一折价没有扩大),他们个人的投资回报,至少会与企业的经营成果同步。但最近,这一折价消失了,并且偶尔还会出现一定溢价。

We need to mention one further item in the investment equation that could affect recent purchasers of our stock. Historically, Berkshire shares have sold modestly below intrinsic business value. With the price there, purchasers could be certain (as long as they did not experience a widening of this discount) that their personal investment experience would at least equal the financial experience of the business. But recently the discount has disappeared, and occasionally a modest premium has prevailed.

折价消失,意味着伯克希尔的市值增长甚至快于商业价值的增长(而商业价值本身也在以令人愉悦的速度增长)。这对涨势期间一直持有的股东是好事,但对新股东或潜在买家却是坏消息。如果伯克希尔新股东未来的投资回报,仅仅是追平公司未来的经营成果,那么他们所支付的市场价格高出内在商业价值的那部分溢价,就必须一直维持下去。

The elimination of the discount means that Berkshire’s market value increased even faster than business value (which, itself, grew at a pleasing pace). That was good news for any owner holding while that move took place, but it is bad news for the new or prospective owner. If the financial experience of new owners of Berkshire is merely to match the future financial experience of the company, any premium of market value over intrinsic business value that they pay must be maintained.

管理层无法决定市场价格,但可以通过信息披露和公司政策,鼓励市场参与者采取理性行为。各位或许能猜到,我个人偏爱的,是一种始终贴近商业价值的市场价格。有了这层关系,所有股东在持股期间,便能随企业的兴旺而按比例一同兴旺。股价在远高于或远低于商业价值之间剧烈波动,并不会改变全体股东最终的总收益;到头来,投资者的总收益必然等于企业的总收益。但长时间的大幅低估和/或高估,将导致企业所创造的收益在不同股东之间分配不均,而任何一位股东的最终投资结果,很大程度上取决于他碰巧有多走运、多精明,或多糊涂。

Management cannot determine market prices, although it can, by its disclosures and policies, encourage rational behavior by market participants. My own preference, as perhaps you’d guess, is for a market price that consistently approximates business value. Given that relationship, all owners prosper precisely as the business prospers during their period of ownership. Wild swings in market prices far above and below business value do not change the final gains for owners in aggregate; in the end, investor gains must equal business gains. But long periods of substantial undervaluation and/or overvaluation will cause the gains of the business to be inequitably distributed among various owners, with the investment result of any given owner largely depending upon how lucky, shrewd, or foolish he happens to be.

论长期而言,伯克希尔市值与商业价值之间的贴合度,要胜过我所知的任何一只公开交易的股票。这要归功于你们。因为你们理性、关切、且以投资为导向,伯克希尔的股价几乎总是合理的。这一不寻常的结果,源自一个人口结构同样不寻常的股东群体:我们几乎所有的股东都是个人,而非机构。没有哪家与伯克希尔同等规模的上市公司,能做到这一点。

Over the long term there has been a more consistent relationship between Berkshire’s market value and business value than has existed for any other publicly-traded equity with which I am familiar. This is a tribute to you. Because you have been rational, interested, and investment-oriented, the market price for Berkshire stock has almost always been sensible. This unusual result has been achieved by a shareholder group with unusual demographics: virtually all of our shareholders are individuals, not institutions. No other public company our size can claim the same.

你或许会以为,机构手握大批高薪且经验丰富的投资专才,理应成为金融市场中稳定与理性的力量。事实并非如此:那些被机构重仓持有、并由它们持续盯着的股票,往往属于定价最不合适的那一拨。

You might think that institutions, with their large staffs of highly-paid and experienced investment professionals, would be a force for stability and reason in financial markets. They are not: stocks heavily owned and constantly monitored by institutions have often been among the most inappropriately valued.

四十年前,本·格雷厄姆讲过一个故事,点明了投资专才为何会如此行事:一位石油勘探人在升往天堂领受报偿的路上,遇到了圣彼得,后者带来了一个坏消息。“你够资格住进来,”圣彼得说,“但你也看见了,给石油人留的院子已经挤满了,实在没地方把你塞进去。”那勘探人想了一会儿,问他能不能对院子里现有的住户喊上四个字。圣彼得觉得这无伤大雅,便应允了。于是,勘探人拢起双手喊道:“地狱发现石油啦!”院门立刻敞开,所有石油人都涌了出来,直奔那九幽黄泉。圣彼得大为叹服,便邀请勘探人搬进去,安心住下。勘探人却顿了顿,说:“不了,我想我还是跟哥儿几个一块儿走吧。那传言,没准还真有几分是真的呢。”

Ben Graham told a story 40 years ago that illustrates why investment professionals behave as they do: An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for oil men is packed. There’s no way to squeeze you in.” After thinking a moment, the prospector asked if he might say just four words to the present occupants. That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector cupped his hands and yelled, “Oil discovered in hell.” Immediately the gate to the compound opened and all of the oil men marched out to head for the nether regions. Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and make himself comfortable. The prospector paused. “No,” he said, “I think I’ll go along with the rest of the boys. There might be some truth to that rumor after all.”

报告盈利的来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下一页的表格,列出了伯克希尔报告盈利的主要来源。这些数字,连同详细得多的各个子分部数字,正是查理和我所关注的。我们不认为合并报表对于管理或评估伯克希尔有什么帮助,事实上,我们内部从来不做合并报表。

The table on the next page shows the major sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. These numbers, along with far more detailed sub-segment numbers, are the ones that Charlie and I focus upon. We do not find consolidated figures an aid in either managing or evaluating Berkshire and, in fact, never prepare them for internal use.

对想弄清一家多元化公司究竟在发生什么的投资者来说,分部信息同样不可或缺。企业高管在拍板收购前,向来都坚持要这类数据;可直到几年前,他们却很少把它拿给那些同样要为自己的买卖操心的投资者。相反,当股东为看清自家企业的真实经济状况而索要数据时,管理层往往一句“告诉你实情会损害公司,所以没法说”便打发了事。最后还是美国证券交易委员会强令披露分部数据,管理层这才开始给出真答案。这一转变,让人想起阿尔·卡彭那句妙论:“好言好语再加一把枪,能办成的事,比光靠好言好语多得多。”

Segment information is equally essential for investors wanting to know what is going on in a multi-line business. Corporate managers always have insisted upon such information before making acquisition decisions but, until a few years ago, seldom made it available to investors faced with acquisition and disposition decisions of their own. Instead, when owners wishing to understand the economic realities of their business asked for data, managers usually gave them a we-can’t-tell-you-what-is- going-on-because-it-would-hurt-the-company answer. Ultimately the SEC ordered disclosure of segment data and management began supplying real answers. The change in their behavior recalls an insight of Al Capone: “You can get much further with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone.”

表格中,商誉摊销并未摊到各项具体业务头上,而是按 1983 年年报我那封信的附录所述的理由,单列为一项汇总(如有需要,可索取 1977 至 1984 年信件的汇编)。第 39-41 页的业务分部数据,以及第 49-55 页的管理层讨论,还提供了关于各项业务的大量补充信息,包括各分部的商誉与商誉摊销数据。我恳请各位一并读一读这两部分,还有查理·芒格从第 56 页起写给西科金融股东的那封信。

In the table, amortization of Goodwill is not charged against the specific businesses but, for reasons outlined in the Appendix to my letter in the 1983 annual report, is aggregated as a separate item. (A compendium of the 1977-1984 letters is available upon request.) In the Business Segment Data and Management’s Discussion sections on pages 39-41 and 49-55, much additional information regarding our businesses is provided, including Goodwill and Goodwill Amortization figures for each of the segments. I urge you to read those sections as well as Charlie Munger’s letter to Wesco shareholders, which starts on page 56.

(金额单位:千美元)

(000s omitted)

-----------------------------------------

-----------------------------------------

税前收益伯克希尔应占净利润(税后及少数股东权益后)
1985 年1984 年1985 年1984 年
经营收益:
保险集团:
承保业务$(44,230)$(48,060)$(23,569)$(25,955)
净投资收益95,21768,90379,71662,059
联合零售商店270(1,072)134(579)
蓝筹印花5,763(1,843)2,813(899)
《布法罗新闻》29,92127,32814,58013,317
互助储蓄与贷款2,6221,4564,0163,151
内布拉斯加家具城12,68614,5115,1815,917
精密钢铁3,8964,0921,4771,696
喜诗糖果28,98926,64414,55813,380
纺织业务(2,395)418(1,324)226
西科金融9,5009,7774,1914,828
商誉摊销(1,475)(1,434)(1,475)(1,434)
债务利息(14,415)(14,734)(7,288)(7,452)
股东指定捐款(4,006)(3,179)(2,164)(1,716)
其他3,1064,9322,1023,475
经营收益合计125,44987,73992,94870,014
通用食品特别分配4,1278,1113,7797,294
《华盛顿邮报》特别分配14,877---13,851---
证券出售468,903104,699325,23771,587
所有实体总收益$613,356$200,549$435,815$148,895
                                                         Berkshire's Share 
                                                          of Net Earnings 
                                                         (after taxes and 
                                    Pre-Tax Earnings    minority interests)
                                  -------------------   -------------------
                                    1985       1984       1985       1984 
                                  --------   --------   --------   --------
Operating Earnings:
  Insurance Group:
    Underwriting ................ $(44,230)  $(48,060)  $(23,569)  $(25,955)
    Net Investment Income .......   95,217     68,903     79,716     62,059
  Associated Retail Stores ......      270     (1,072)       134       (579)
  Blue Chip Stamps ..............    5,763     (1,843)     2,813       (899)
  Buffalo News ..................   29,921     27,328     14,580     13,317
  Mutual Savings and Loan .......    2,622      1,456      4,016      3,151
  Nebraska Furniture Mart .......   12,686     14,511      5,181      5,917
  Precision Steel ...............    3,896      4,092      1,477      1,696
  See’s Candies .................   28,989     26,644     14,558     13,380
  Textiles ......................   (2,395)       418     (1,324)       226
  Wesco Financial ...............    9,500      9,777      4,191      4,828
  Amortization of Goodwill ......   (1,475)    (1,434)    (1,475)    (1,434)
  Interest on Debt ..............  (14,415)   (14,734)    (7,288)    (7,452)
  Shareholder-Designated 
     Contributions ..............   (4,006)    (3,179)    (2,164)    (1,716)
  Other .........................    3,106      4,932      2,102      3,475
                                  --------   --------   --------   --------
Operating Earnings ..............  125,449     87,739     92,948     70,014
Special General Foods Distribution   4,127      8,111      3,779      7,294
Special Washington Post 
   Distribution .................   14,877      ---       13,851      ---
Sales of Securities .............  468,903    104,699    325,237     71,587
                                  --------   --------   --------   --------
Total Earnings - all entities ... $613,356   $200,549   $435,815   $148,895
                                  ========   ========   ========   ========

我们 1985 年的业绩里,含有一笔异常庞大的证券出售收益。可单凭这一点,并不说明这一年过得格外好(当然,我们确实过得好)。某一年的证券利润,倒有几分像大学毕业典礼:四年积攒的学问,在那一天被正式承认,而那天本身其实什么也没学到。我们持有一只股票,可能长达十年甚至更久,这期间它的商业价值和市场价值都可能稳稳增长。而在我们最终卖出的那一年,价值也许原地踏步,甚至倒退。可自买入以来的全部增值,都会一股脑记进卖出当年的会计利润里。(不过,若这只股票在我们的保险子公司名下,其市值涨跌每年都会反映到净资产中。)因此,某一年报告出来的资本利得或亏损,若用来衡量我们当年干得如何,其实毫无意义。

Our 1985 results include unusually large earnings from the sale of securities. This fact, in itself, does not mean that we had a particularly good year (though, of course, we did). Security profits in a given year bear similarities to a college graduation ceremony in which the knowledge gained over four years is recognized on a day when nothing further is learned. We may hold a stock for a decade or more, and during that period it may grow quite consistently in both business and market value. In the year in which we finally sell it there may be no increase in value, or there may even be a decrease. But all growth in value since purchase will be reflected in the accounting earnings of the year of sale. (If the stock owned is in our insurance subsidiaries, however, any gain or loss in market value will be reflected in net worth annually.) Thus, reported capital gains or losses in any given year are meaningless as a measure of how well we have done in the current year.

1985 年已实现收益中的很大一部分(税前 4.88 亿美元中的 3.38 亿美元),来自卖出通用食品的股票。这些股票的大头,我们从 1980 年起就持有,当年的买价远低于我们估算的每股商业价值。年复一年,吉姆·弗格森和菲尔·史密斯的经营,把通用食品的商业价值大幅做了上去;去年秋天,菲利普·莫里斯公司出价收购,正反映了这份增值。我们由此得益于四个因素:便宜的买价、经济基础扎实的业务、一心为股东着想的能干管理层,以及一个愿意按十足商业价值出手的买家。虽说只有最后一点才带来账面上的报告利润,但在我们看来,识别出前三点,才是为伯克希尔股东创造价值的关键。挑选普通股时,我们的心思全放在有吸引力的买入上,而不去惦记有没有机会漂亮地卖出。

A large portion of the realized gain in 1985 ($338 million pre-tax out of a total of $488 million) came about through the sale of our General Foods shares. We held most of these shares since 1980, when we had purchased them at a price far below what we felt was their per/share business value. Year by year, the managerial efforts of Jim Ferguson and Phil Smith substantially increased General Foods’ business value and, last fall, Philip Morris made an offer for the company that reflected the increase. We thus benefited from four factors: a bargain purchase price, a business with fine underlying economics, an able management concentrating on the interests of shareholders, and a buyer willing to pay full business value. While that last factor is the only one that produces reported earnings, we consider identification of the first three to be the key to building value for Berkshire shareholders. In selecting common stocks, we devote our attention to attractive purchases, not to the possibility of attractive sales.

我们再次报告了一笔可观的特别分红收入,今年来自《华盛顿邮报》和通用食品。(通用食品那几笔交易,显然远在菲利普·莫里斯出价之前就已完成。)这类分红是这样来的:我们把所持某家公司的一部分股份卖回给它,而它同时也在向别的股东回购股份。按合同约定,我们卖出的股数经过精确设定,使得卖后我们对该公司的持股比例与卖前分毫不差。美国国税局把这类交易恰当地视同股息,因为我们作为股东,一边拿到现金,一边持股比例纹丝不动。这种税务处理对我们有利,因为与个人纳税人不同,公司纳税人对股息收入的税负,远低于对长期资本利得的税负。(若众议院通过的税法议案成为法律,这一差距还会进一步拉大:按其条款,公司实现的资本利得将与普通收入同税率征税。)不过,会计规则对这类交易在股东报告中该如何列示并不明确。为与去年保持一致,我们仍把它们列作资本利得。

We have again reported substantial income from special distributions, this year from Washington Post and General Foods. (The General Foods transactions obviously took place well before the Philip Morris offer.) Distributions of this kind occur when we sell a portion of our shares in a company back to it simultaneously with its purchase of shares from other shareholders. The number of shares we sell is contractually set so as to leave our percentage ownership in the company precisely the same after the sale as before. Such a transaction is quite properly regarded by the IRS as substantially equivalent to a dividend since we, as a shareholder, receive cash while maintaining an unchanged ownership interest. This tax treatment benefits us because corporate taxpayers, unlike individual taxpayers, incur much lower taxes on dividend income than on income from long-term capital gains. (This difference will be widened further if the House-passed tax bill becomes law: under its provisions, capital gains realized by corporations will be taxed at the same rate as ordinary income.) However, accounting rules are unclear as to proper treatment for shareholder reporting. To conform with last year’s treatment, we have shown these transactions as capital gains.

这类交易我们从不主动去找,但每当管理层先开了口,我们已多次同意。每一回,我们都认定,那些没有卖出的股东(他们人人都有机会按我们拿到的同一价格出手)反而占了便宜,因为公司是以低于内在商业价值的价格回购的。税上的好处,再加上我们乐意配合那些正为全体股东增值的管理层,有时便促成我们卖出——但仅以我们在企业中所占份额不因此缩水为限。

Though we have not sought out such transactions, we have agreed to them on several occasions when managements initiated the idea. In each case we have felt that non-selling shareholders (all of whom had an opportunity to sell at the same price we received) benefited because the companies made their repurchases at prices below intrinsic business value. The tax advantages we receive and our wish to cooperate with managements that are increasing values for all shareholders have sometimes led us to sell - but only to the extent that our proportional share of the business was undiminished.

按惯例,讲到这里,我们本该转去谈几家主要业务。不过在那之前,先来看看一桩发生在我们某家小业务上的失败。我们的副董事长查理·芒格,无论对生意还是对人生别的方面,一向更看重研究失败而非成功。他这么做,秉持的是那位智者的精神:“我只想知道自己会死在哪儿,这样我就永远躲开那个地方。”你马上就会明白我俩为何是绝配:查理爱琢磨错误,而我为他备下了充足的素材,尤其是在纺织和保险这两摊生意上。

At this point we usually turn to a discussion of some of our major business units. Before doing so, however, we should first look at a failure at one of our smaller businesses. Our Vice Chairman, Charlie Munger, has always emphasized the study of mistakes rather than successes, both in business and other aspects of life. He does so in the spirit of the man who said: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” You’ll immediately see why we make a good team: Charlie likes to study errors and I have generated ample material for him, particularly in our textile and insurance businesses.

纺织业务之关停

Shutdown of Textile Business

7 月,我们决定关掉纺织业务,到年底,这桩叫人不痛快的差事已大体了结。这门生意的来龙去脉,颇能给人以启发。

In July we decided to close our textile operation, and by yearend this unpleasant job was largely completed. The history of this business is instructive.

二十一年前,我担任普通合伙人的巴菲特合伙有限公司买下伯克希尔·哈撒韦的控制权时,公司的会计净资产是 2200 万美元,悉数押在纺织业务上。可它的内在商业价值要低得多,因为那些纺织资产赚不到与账面价值相称的回报。事实上,此前九年(伯克希尔与哈撒韦合并经营的那段时期),累计 5.3 亿美元的销售额,只落下 1000 万美元的累计亏损。盈利的年头也有过,但净效果总是进一步、退两步。

When Buffett Partnership, Ltd., an investment partnership of which I was general partner, bought control of Berkshire Hathaway 21 years ago, it had an accounting net worth of $22 million, all devoted to the textile business. The company’s intrinsic business value, however, was considerably less because the textile assets were unable to earn returns commensurate with their accounting value. Indeed, during the previous nine years (the period in which Berkshire and Hathaway operated as a merged company) aggregate sales of $530 million had produced an aggregate loss of $10 million. Profits had been reported from time to time but the net effect was always one step forward, two steps back.

我们买下它的时候,南方的纺织厂——多为非工会企业——被认为握有一项重要的竞争优势。北方的纺织厂大多已经关门,许多人料定我们也会把这门生意清盘了事。

At the time we made our purchase, southern textile plants - largely non-union - were believed to have an important competitive advantage. Most northern textile operations had closed and many people thought we would liquidate our business as well.

可我们觉得,让一位老员工来经营会好得多,便当即选定他出任总裁,此人就是肯·蔡斯。在这一点上我们 100% 没看错:肯和他新近的继任者加里·莫里森都是出色的经营者,丝毫不逊于我们那些更赚钱的业务里的管理者。

We felt, however, that the business would be run much better by a long-time employee whom. we immediately selected to be president, Ken Chace. In this respect we were 100% correct: Ken and his recent successor, Garry Morrison, have been excellent managers, every bit the equal of managers at our more profitable businesses.

1967 年初,纺织业务产生的现金,被用来支撑我们收购国民赔偿公司、进军保险业。这笔钱一部分来自盈利,一部分来自削减纺织业务的存货、应收账款和固定资产投资。事后看,这一收缩很明智:纺织业务虽经肯之手大有起色,却始终算不上一门赚钱的好生意,哪怕在周期性的上行期也是如此。

In early 1967 cash generated by the textile operation was used to fund our entry into insurance via the purchase of National Indemnity Company. Some of the money came from earnings and some from reduced investment in textile inventories, receivables, and fixed assets. This pullback proved wise: although much improved by Ken’s management, the textile business never became a good earner, not even in cyclical upturns.

此后伯克希尔进一步多元化,纺织业务在公司里的分量越来越小,它对整体回报的拖累也随之减轻。我们之所以没有撒手,理由我在 1978 年年报里讲过(其他年份也曾归纳):“(1)我们的纺织企业是当地举足轻重的雇主;(2)管理层坦诚地汇报问题,也卖力地去解决;(3)工会在面对我们共同的难题时通情达理、肯于配合;(4)这门生意相对于投入,应能带来还算过得去的现金回报。”我还写道:“只要这些条件还在——我们也预计它们会在——我们就打算继续撑着纺织业务,哪怕资本另有更诱人的去处。”

Further diversification for Berkshire followed, and gradually the textile operation’s depressing effect on our overall return diminished as the business became a progressively smaller portion of the corporation. We remained in the business for reasons that I stated in the 1978 annual report (and summarized at other times also): “(1) our textile businesses are very important employers in their communities, (2) management has been straightforward in reporting on problems and energetic in attacking them, (3) labor has been cooperative and understanding in facing our common problems, and (4) the business should average modest cash returns relative to investment.” I further said, “As long as these conditions prevail - and we expect that they will - we intend to continue to support our textile business despite more attractive alternative uses for capital.”

结果证明,我在第(4)点上大错特错。1979 年虽小有盈利,此后这门生意却不断吞钱。到 1985 年年中,连我也看清了:这种局面几乎注定要一直持续下去。倘若能找到一位愿意接着经营的买家,我当然宁可把它卖掉,而不是清盘,哪怕到手的钱少一些。可这门生意的经济账,我终于看明白了,别人也一样看明白了,于是无人问津。

It turned out that I was very wrong about (4). Though 1979 was moderately profitable, the business thereafter consumed major amounts of cash. By mid-1985 it became clear, even to me, that this condition was almost sure to continue. Could we have found a buyer who would continue operations, I would have certainly preferred to sell the business rather than liquidate it, even if that meant somewhat lower proceeds for us. But the economics that were finally obvious to me were also obvious to others, and interest was nil.

我不会仅仅为给公司回报率添上零点几个百分点,就关掉一门盈利略逊于常态的生意。但反过来,一门生意一旦看来注定要没完没了地亏下去,哪怕再赚钱的公司也不该继续为它输血。对我的头一条主张,亚当·斯密会不以为然;对我的第二条,卡尔·马克思会不以为然;而这中间地带,才是唯一让我心安的位置。

I won’t close down businesses of sub-normal profitability merely to add a fraction of a point to our corporate rate of return. However, I also feel it inappropriate for even an exceptionally profitable company to fund an operation once it appears to have unending losses in prospect. Adam Smith would disagree with my first proposition, and Karl Marx would disagree with my second; the middle ground is the only position that leaves me comfortable.

我要再次强调,为了让纺织业务起死回生,肯和加里可谓足智多谋、精力充沛、又不乏想象力。为求得可持续的盈利,他们重排了产品线、机器布局和分销安排。我们还做过一笔大收购——万贝克纺织厂,指望能有重要的协同效应(这个词在商界被广泛用来给一桩本来说不通的收购找说法)。但到头来一切都不管用,没能及早收手,我难辞其咎。《商业周刊》最近一篇报道说,自 1980 年以来已有 250 家纺织厂关门。它们的东家并未掌握什么我不知道的情报;只不过他们处理这些情报时更冷静、更客观。我却没听孔德的劝——“理智应当是心灵的仆人,而非它的奴隶”——只信自己愿意信的那一套。

I should reemphasize that Ken and Garry have been resourceful, energetic and imaginative in attempting to make our textile operation a success. Trying to achieve sustainable profitability, they reworked product lines, machinery configurations and distribution arrangements. We also made a major acquisition, Waumbec Mills, with the expectation of important synergy (a term widely used in business to explain an acquisition that otherwise makes no sense). But in the end nothing worked and I should be faulted for not quitting sooner. A recent Business Week article stated that 250 textile mills have closed since 1980. Their owners were not privy to any information that was unknown to me; they simply processed it more objectively. I ignored Comte’s advice - “the intellect should be the servant of the heart, but not its slave” - and believed what I preferred to believe.

国内纺织业做的是大宗商品生意,在一个产能严重过剩的全球市场里厮杀。我们碰到的许多麻烦,或直接或间接,都源于外国的竞争——那些国家工人的工资,不过是美国最低工资的零头。但这绝不意味着我们的工人该为关厂背锅。事实上,和整个美国工业的雇员比,我们工人的收入偏低,这在纺织行业向来如此。合同谈判中,工会的领头人和会员深知我们在成本上处于劣势,从不狮子大开口地要求加薪,也不搞出工不出力那一套。相反,他们和我们一样,拼了命想保住竞争力。哪怕在清算期间,他们的表现也无可挑剔。(说来讽刺:若干年前我们的工会若真闹得不近情理,我们的财务反倒会好过些——那样我们早就看清了这条死路,趁早关门,省下日后的大笔亏损。)

The domestic textile industry operates in a commodity business, competing in a world market in which substantial excess capacity exists. Much of the trouble we experienced was attributable, both directly and indirectly, to competition from foreign countries whose workers are paid a small fraction of the U.S. minimum wage. But that in no way means that our labor force deserves any blame for our closing. In fact, in comparison with employees of American industry generally, our workers were poorly paid, as has been the case throughout the textile business. In contract negotiations, union leaders and members were sensitive to our disadvantageous cost position and did not push for unrealistic wage increases or unproductive work practices. To the contrary, they tried just as hard as we did to keep us competitive. Even during our liquidation period they performed superbly. (Ironically, we would have been better off financially if our union had behaved unreasonably some years ago; we then would have recognized the impossible future that we faced, promptly closed down, and avoided significant future losses.)

这些年,我们本有机会在纺织业务上砸下巨额资本支出,好把可变成本压下去一些。每一份这样的方案,乍看都是稳赚不赔。事实上,按标准的投资回报率一算,这些方案许诺的经济效益,往往比把同样的钱投进我们利润丰厚的糖果和报纸生意还要高。

Over the years, we had the option of making large capital expenditures in the textile operation that would have allowed us to somewhat reduce variable costs. Each proposal to do so looked like an immediate winner. Measured by standard return-on- investment tests, in fact, these proposals usually promised greater economic benefits than would have resulted from comparable expenditures in our highly-profitable candy and newspaper businesses.

可这些纺织投资许诺的好处,不过是镜花水月。我们的许多对手,无论国内国外,都在跟着上马同样的支出;一旦够多的公司都这么干,它们压下来的成本,就成了全行业新的降价基准。单看每一家,其资本投资决策都显得划算而理性;可合起来看,这些决策彼此抵消,反倒成了非理性之举(正如看游行时,人人都觉得踮起脚就能看得清楚一点,结果谁也没占到便宜)。每一轮投资过后,所有玩家押进场的钱都更多了,回报却依旧寒酸。

But the promised benefits from these textile investments were illusory. Many of our competitors, both domestic and foreign, were stepping up to the same kind of expenditures and, once enough companies did so, their reduced costs became the baseline for reduced prices industrywide. Viewed individually, each company’s capital investment decision appeared cost- effective and rational; viewed collectively, the decisions neutralized each other and were irrational (just as happens when each person watching a parade decides he can see a little better if he stands on tiptoes). After each round of investment, all the players had more money in the game and returns remained anemic.

于是我们面对一个左右为难的糟糕选择:砸下巨资,或许能保住纺织业务的一口气,却要在越滚越大的资本上,忍受惨不忍睹的回报;而且投完之后,外国对手在人工成本上仍握有一项巨大而持久的优势。可要是拒绝投资,我们又会越来越没竞争力——哪怕只跟国内的纺织厂比也是如此。我总觉得自己正处在伍迪·艾伦某部电影里描述的那种境地:“人类比历史上任何时候都更站在一个十字路口。一条路通向绝望和彻底的无望,另一条路通向彻底的灭亡。让我们祈祷,自己有智慧选对方向。”

Thus, we faced a miserable choice: huge capital investment would have helped to keep our textile business alive, but would have left us with terrible returns on ever-growing amounts of capital. After the investment, moreover, the foreign competition would still have retained a major, continuing advantage in labor costs. A refusal to invest, however, would make us increasingly non-competitive, even measured against domestic textile manufacturers. I always thought myself in the position described by Woody Allen in one of his movies: “More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.”

要看清“投还是不投”这道难题在大宗商品生意里如何收场,不妨看看伯灵顿工业公司。无论二十一年前还是今天,它都是美国遥遥领先的最大纺织公司。1964 年,伯灵顿的销售额是 12 亿美元,我们才 5000 万美元。它在分销和生产上的实力,是我们望尘莫及的,盈利记录自然也远在我们之上。1964 年底,它的股价是 60 美元,我们的是 13 美元。

For an understanding of how the to-invest-or-not-to-invest dilemma plays out in a commodity business, it is instructive to look at Burlington Industries, by far the largest U.S. textile company both 21 years ago and now. In 1964 Burlington had sales of $1.2 billion against our $50 million. It had strengths in both distribution and production that we could never hope to match and also, of course, had an earnings record far superior to ours. Its stock sold at 60 at the end of 1964; ours was 13.

伯灵顿决意死守纺织业,到 1985 年销售额约 28 亿美元。1964 至 1985 年间,公司投下约 30 亿美元资本支出,远超美国任何一家纺织公司,摊到那只 60 美元的股票上,每股超过 200 美元。我敢说,这些支出很大一部分用在了降本和扩产上。既然伯灵顿铁了心留在纺织业,我也推断,公司的资本决策相当理性。

Burlington made a decision to stick to the textile business, and in 1985 had sales of about $2.8 billion. During the 1964-85 period, the company made capital expenditures of about $3 billion, far more than any other U.S. textile company and more than $200-per-share on that $60 stock. A very large part of the expenditures, I am sure, was devoted to cost improvement and expansion. Given Burlington’s basic commitment to stay in textiles, I would also surmise that the company’s capital decisions were quite rational.

然而,按实际购买力计,伯灵顿的销售额已经缩水,如今的销售利润率和净资产收益率也远逊于二十年前。这只股票 1965 年一拆二,眼下报 34 美元——按复权计算,也就比 1964 年的 60 美元略高一点点。可与此同时,消费者物价指数已涨了三倍多。算下来,每股所代表的购买力,只剩 1964 年底的约三分之一。公司固然照常派息,但这些股息按购买力计,也大大缩水了。

Nevertheless, Burlington has lost sales volume in real dollars and has far lower returns on sales and equity now than 20 years ago. Split 2-for-1 in 1965, the stock now sells at 34 -- on an adjusted basis, just a little over its $60 price in 1964. Meanwhile, the CPI has more than tripled. Therefore, each share commands about one-third the purchasing power it did at the end of 1964. Regular dividends have been paid but they, too, have shrunk significantly in purchasing power.

股东落得这般惨烈的下场,说明了一件事:当大量才智和精力被押在一个错误的前提上,会闹出什么后果。这局面让人想起塞缪尔·约翰逊那匹马:“一匹能数到十的马是匹了不起的马——却算不上了不起的数学家。”同样,一家能在本行业内出色配置资本的纺织公司,是家了不起的纺织公司——却算不上一门了不起的生意。

This devastating outcome for the shareholders indicates what can happen when much brain power and energy are applied to a faulty premise. The situation is suggestive of Samuel Johnson’s horse: “A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse - not a remarkable mathematician.” Likewise, a textile company that allocates capital brilliantly within its industry is a remarkable textile company - but not a remarkable business.

从我自己的经历,加上对许多别的企业的观察,我得出的结论是:一份漂亮的经营记录(以经济回报来衡量),更多取决于你上了哪条船,而非你划得多卖力(当然,无论生意好坏,才智与努力都大有裨益)。几年前我写过:“当一位以精明著称的管理者,去对付一门以基本经济糟糕著称的生意,最后完好无损的,往往是这门生意的名声。”这些年来,没有任何事情动摇过我的这个看法。倘若你发觉自己身处一条长年漏水的船,与其把力气花在补漏上,不如花在换船上,多半更管用。

My conclusion from my own experiences and from much observation of other businesses is that a good managerial record (measured by economic returns) is far more a function of what business boat you get into than it is of how effectively you row (though intelligence and effort help considerably, of course, in any business, good or bad). Some years ago I wrote: “When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.” Nothing has since changed my point of view on that matter. Should you find yourself in a chronically-leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.

  • * *
  • * *

我们这段纺织往事,还有一则投资上的后记。有些投资者在买股时格外看重账面价值(我早年也是如此);还有些经济学家和学者认为,重置价值对估算整个股市的合理点位相当重要。这两派人,怕是都能从我们 1986 年初处理纺织机器的那场拍卖里,上一堂课。

There is an investment postscript in our textile saga. Some investors weight book value heavily in their stock-buying decisions (as I, in my early years, did myself). And some economists and academicians believe replacement values are of considerable importance in calculating an appropriate price level for the stock market as a whole. Those of both persuasions would have received an education at the auction we held in early 1986 to dispose of our textile machinery.

此次售出的设备(包括拍卖前几个月内处置的部分),占据了新贝德福德(New Bedford)约 75 万平方英尺的厂房,而且完全处于可用状态。这批设备初始成本约为 1300 万美元,其中包括 1980 年至 1984 年间新投入的 200 万美元,当前的账面价值(加速折旧后)为 86.6 万美元。虽然任何头脑清醒的管理层都不可能投入这样一笔置新钱,但如果真要全部换新,这些设备的重置成本大约在 3000 万至 5000 万美元之间。

<<<END P 13>>>

The equipment sold (including some disposed of in the few months prior to the auction) took up about 750,000 square feet of factory space in New Bedford and was eminently usable. It originally cost us about $13 million, including $2 million spent in 1980-84, and had a current book value of $866,000 (after accelerated depreciation). Though no sane management would have made the investment, the equipment could have been replaced new for perhaps $30-$50 million.

而我们卖掉这批设备的总收入是 16.3122 万美元。扣掉必要的售前售后开销,净收入还不到零。1981 年我们每台花 5000 美元买来的那些相对新式的织布机,标价 50 美元都没人要。最后只好按每台 26 美元当废铁卖了,这点钱,还抵不上拆除的成本。

Gross proceeds from our sale of this equipment came to $163,122. Allowing for necessary pre- and post-sale costs, our net was less than zero. Relatively modern looms that we bought for $5,000 apiece in 1981 found no takers at $50. We finally sold them for scrap at $26 each, a sum less than removal costs.

想一想吧:布法罗两条送报线路——或者一家喜诗糖果店——所蕴含的经济商誉,就远远超过我们从这一大堆有形资产上收回的全部钱款;而就在不久之前,在另一番竞争环境下,这些资产还能养活一千多号人。

Ponder this: the economic goodwill attributable to two paper routes in Buffalo - or a single See’s candy store - considerably exceeds the proceeds we received from this massive collection of tangible assets that not too many years ago, under different competitive conditions, was able to employ over 1,000 people.

三家非常出色的企业(外加关于激励薪酬的几点思考)

Three Very Good Businesses (and a Few Thoughts About Incentive Compensation)

我十二岁那年,在祖父家住了大约四个月。祖父开了一辈子杂货店,当时还在写一本书,每晚都向我口述几页。书名——各位坐稳了——叫《如何经营一家杂货店,兼谈我对钓鱼的几点心得》。祖父深信,全世界对这两个话题都兴致盎然,都在翘首以盼他的高见。看了这一节的标题和内容,各位大概会认定,我这是深受祖父文风(和性情)的熏陶。

When I was 12, I lived with my grandfather for about four months. A grocer by trade, he was also working on a book and each night he dictated a few pages to me. The title - brace yourself - was “How to Run a Grocery Store and a Few Things I Have Learned About Fishing”. My grandfather was sure that interest in these two subjects was universal and that the world awaited his views. You may conclude from this section’s title and contents that I was overexposed to Grandpa’s literary style (and personality).

这里我把内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)、喜诗糖果(See's Candy Shops)和《布法罗晚报》(Buffalo Evening News)放在一起讨论,因为自一年前向各位报告以来,这三家企业的经济优势、劣势和前景都变化不大。不过,这一节写得不长,绝非要贬低它们对我们的重要性:1985 年,它们合计赚取税前利润 7200 万美元。十五年前,在我们尚未收购其中任何一家时,它们的合计税前利润约为 800 万美元。

I am merging the discussion of Nebraska Furniture Mart, See’s Candy Shops, and Buffalo Evening News here because the economic strengths, weaknesses, and prospects of these businesses have changed little since I reported to you a year ago. The shortness of this discussion, however, is in no way meant to minimize the importance of these businesses to us: in 1985 they earned an aggregate of $72 million pre-tax. Fifteen years ago, before we had acquired any of them, their aggregate earnings were about $8 million pre-tax.

盈利从 800 万美元增至 7200 万美元,听起来惊人——通常也的确如此——但你不应理所当然地这样认为。你首先得确认,基年的盈利是否被严重压低。如果基年盈利相对于所用资本已经相当可观,那就需要审视一个更为关键的问题:为了实现盈利的增长,究竟需要追加多少资本?

While an increase in earnings from $8 million to $72 million sounds terrific - and usually is - you should not automatically assume that to be the case. You must first make sure that earnings were not severely depressed in the base year. If they were instead substantial in relation to capital employed, an even more important point must be examined: how much additional capital was required to produce the additional earnings?

在这两个问题上,我们这三家企业都表现不俗。首先,十五年前,它们的盈利相对于当时投入的资本就已十分出色。其次,尽管眼下年盈利多出 6400 万美元,维持运营所需的投入资本,仅比当年多了约 4000 万美元。

In both respects, our group of three scores well. First, earnings 15 years ago were excellent compared to capital then employed in the businesses. Second, although annual earnings are now $64 million greater, the businesses require only about $40 million more in invested capital to operate than was the case then.

这三家企业的盈利能力大幅跃升,所需追加的资本却极少——这极好地展示了经济商誉在通胀时期的威力(这一现象在 1983 年年报中有详细解释)。它们这种财务特征,使我们能将它们所产生利润的绝大部分另作他用。然而,美国企业界的普遍经验并非如此:为了大幅增加盈利,大多数公司也需要大幅增加资本。平均而言,一家美国企业每多赚 1 美元税前年利润,就需要额外投入约 5 美元资本。因此,这样一家企业若想赶上我们这三家公司的盈利表现,就需要向股东额外筹集超过 3 亿美元的资金。

The dramatic growth in earning power of these three businesses, accompanied by their need for only minor amounts of capital, illustrates very well the power of economic goodwill during an inflationary period (a phenomenon explained in detail in the 1983 annual report). The financial characteristics of these businesses have allowed us to use a very large portion of the earnings they generate elsewhere. Corporate America, however, has had a different experience: in order to increase earnings significantly, most companies have needed to increase capital significantly also. The average American business has required about $5 of additional capital to generate an additional $1 of annual pre-tax earnings. That business, therefore, would have required over $300 million in additional capital from its owners in order to achieve an earnings performance equal to our group of three.

当资本回报率平淡无奇时,靠多投入来多产出的记录,算不上什么了不起的管理成就。你坐在摇椅上,也能亲自取得同样的结果——只需把存进储蓄账户的本金翻两番,你的收益就会翻两番。你大概不指望有人会为这项成就唱赞歌吧。然而,退休公告却总是颂扬某些 CEO,比如,说他们在任期内将某小部件公司的盈利翻了两番——却没有一个人去深究,这一增长是否仅仅是多年留存收益和复利作用的结果。

When returns on capital are ordinary, an earn-more-by- putting-up-more record is no great managerial achievement. You can get the same result personally while operating from your rocking chair. just quadruple the capital you commit to a savings account and you will quadruple your earnings. You would hardly expect hosannas for that particular accomplishment. Yet, retirement announcements regularly sing the praises of CEOs who have, say, quadrupled earnings of their widget company during their reign - with no one examining whether this gain was attributable simply to many years of retained earnings and the workings of compound interest.

如果这家小部件公司在整个期间始终保持着优异的资本回报率,或者 CEO 在任期内所用资本仅增加了一倍,那么对他的赞誉或许当之无愧。但如果资本回报率乏善可陈,所用资本又与盈利同步增长,掌声就该收一收了。一个将利息再投资的储蓄账户,也能实现同样的逐年盈利增长——而且,哪怕利率只有 8%,18 年后年收益也会翻两番。

If the widget company consistently earned a superior return on capital throughout the period, or if capital employed only doubled during the CEO’s reign, the praise for him may be well deserved. But if return on capital was lackluster and capital employed increased in pace with earnings, applause should be withheld. A savings account in which interest was reinvested would achieve the same year-by-year increase in earnings - and, at only 8% interest, would quadruple its annual earnings in 18 years.

这道简单算术的力量常被公司忽视,最终让股东蒙受损失。许多公司的薪酬方案,慷慨地奖励那些完全或主要依靠留存收益——即从股东那里扣下的收益——来实现的盈利增长。例如,十年期的固定价格股票期权被例行发放,而发放这些期权的公司,往往分红只占其盈利的一小部分。

The power of this simple math is often ignored by companies to the detriment of their shareholders. Many corporate compensation plans reward managers handsomely for earnings increases produced solely, or in large part, by retained earnings - i.e., earnings withheld from owners. For example, ten-year, fixed-price stock options are granted routinely, often by companies whose dividends are only a small percentage of earnings.

举个例子,便能看清此等情形下可能产生的不公。假设你有一个 10 万美元的储蓄账户,年利率 8%,交由一位受托人“管理”,他每年可自行决定将利息的多少以现金形式付给你。未付的利息就作为“留存收益”留在账户里复利滚动。再假设,你这位受托人凭其非凡的智慧,将“派息比率”设定为年收益的四分之一。

An example will illustrate the inequities possible under such circumstances. Let’s suppose that you had a $100,000 savings account earning 8% interest and “managed” by a trustee who could decide each year what portion of the interest you were to be paid in cash. Interest not paid out would be “retained earnings” added to the savings account to compound. And let’s suppose that your trustee, in his superior wisdom, set the “pay- out ratio” at one-quarter of the annual earnings.

照这么算,十年后你的账户值 17.9084 万美元。此外,在这份“英明打理”之下,你的年收益还涨了约 70%,从 8000 美元升到 13515 美元。最后,你的“股息”也水涨船高,从头一年的 2000 美元稳稳增至第十年的 3378 美元。年年岁岁,当你这位经理的公关公司替他起草那份呈给你的年报时,每一张图表上的线,都会一路朝天上蹿。

Under these assumptions, your account would be worth $179,084 at the end of ten years. Additionally, your annual earnings would have increased about 70% from $8,000 to $13,515 under this inspired management. And, finally, your “dividends” would have increased commensurately, rising regularly from $2,000 in the first year to $3,378 in the tenth year. Each year, when your manager’s public relations firm prepared his annual report to you, all of the charts would have had lines marching skyward.

现在,纯粹为了好玩,我们再把这场景推进一步,给你这位受托人兼经理一份十年期的固定价格期权,标的是你这门“生意”(即你的储蓄账户)的一部分,行权价基于第一年的公允价值。有了这份期权,你的经理仅凭截留你的大部分收益,就能以你的利益为代价,刮走一笔可观的利润。倘若他既是个权谋家,又懂点数学,一旦位置坐稳,说不定还会进一步削减派息比率。

Now, just for fun, let’s push our scenario one notch further and give your trustee-manager a ten-year fixed-price option on part of your “business” (i.e., your savings account) based on its fair value in the first year. With such an option, your manager would reap a substantial profit at your expense - just from having held on to most of your earnings. If he were both Machiavellian and a bit of a mathematician, your manager might also have cut the pay-out ratio once he was firmly entrenched.

此情此景,并不像你想的那么离谱。企业界许多股票期权的运作方式,与此如出一辙:它们之所以增值,全因为管理层留存了收益,而非因为他们把手头的资本运用得多么出色。

This scenario is not as farfetched as you might think. Many stock options in the corporate world have worked in exactly that fashion: they have gained in value simply because management retained earnings, not because it did well with the capital in its hands.

经理人对待期权,其实是持双重标准的。撇开认股权证(它能让发行公司立即获得一笔可观的对价)不谈,我认为可以公允地说,在整个商业世界里,绝无把一家企业全部或部分业务的十年期固定价格期权授予外人的道理。事实上,十个月都算很极端了。尤其难以想象的是,经理人会为一家不断追加资本的企业授予长期期权。任何想获得这种期权的外部人士,都必须为期权期内所追加的资本足额付费。

Managers actually apply a double standard to options. Leaving aside warrants (which deliver the issuing corporation immediate and substantial compensation), I believe it is fair to say that nowhere in the business world are ten-year fixed-price options on all or a portion of a business granted to outsiders. Ten months, in fact, would be regarded as extreme. It would be particularly unthinkable for managers to grant a long-term option on a business that was regularly adding to its capital. Any outsider wanting to secure such an option would be required to pay fully for capital added during the option period.

然而,经理们不愿“己所不欲,施于人”,却绝不等于不愿“己所不欲,施于己”。(跟自己谈判,很少会演变成酒吧斗殴。)经理们经常为自己和同僚量身定制十年期固定价格期权,这些期权,首先,全然无视留存收益会自动提升企业价值这一事实;其次,也全然忽略了资本的机会成本。结果,这些经理最终获利的方式,就如同他们持有一份押在自动增值的储蓄账户上的期权一样。

The unwillingness of managers to do-unto-outsiders, however, is not matched by an unwillingness to do-unto-themselves. (Negotiating with one’s self seldom produces a barroom brawl.) Managers regularly engineer ten-year, fixed-price options for themselves and associates that, first, totally ignore the fact that retained earnings automatically build value and, second, ignore the carrying cost of capital. As a result, these managers end up profiting much as they would have had they had an option on that savings account that was automatically building up in value.

当然,股票期权也常授予那些才华横溢、能为企业增值的经理人,有时带给他们的回报也完全恰如其分。(说实话,真正出类拔萃的经理人,其所得几乎总是远低于应得的。)但当结果公平时,那纯属偶然。期权一经授予,便对个人表现视若无睹。因为它是不可撤销且无条件的(只要经理留在公司),懒汉从期权中得到的回报,与明星经理人分毫不差。一个打算沉睡十年的经理人版瑞普·凡·温克尔(Rip Van Winkle),恐怕想不出比这更妙的“激励”机制了。

Of course, stock options often go to talented, value-adding managers and sometimes deliver them rewards that are perfectly appropriate. (Indeed, managers who are really exceptional almost always get far less than they should.) But when the result is equitable, it is accidental. Once granted, the option is blind to individual performance. Because it is irrevocable and unconditional (so long as a manager stays in the company), the sluggard receives rewards from his options precisely as does the star. A managerial Rip Van Winkle, ready to doze for ten years, could not wish for a better “incentive” system.

(有一份授予“外人”的长期期权,我实在忍不住要评点一二:那就是美国政府获得的克莱斯勒(Chrysler)股票的期权,作为政府为部分救命贷款提供担保的部分对价。当这些期权为政府带来丰厚回报时,克莱斯勒却试图修改支付条款,辩称政府所获回报不但远超预期,与其对克莱斯勒复苏的贡献相比也大得离谱。公司认为回报与业绩不匹配的这份懊恼,成了全国性新闻。这种懊恼恐怕是绝无仅有的:据我所知,在任何地方,都没有哪位经理,因为自己或同僚从期权中得到不当收益,而被冒犯到如此地步。)

(I can’t resist commenting on one long-term option given an “outsider”: that granted the U.S. Government on Chrysler shares as partial consideration for the government’s guarantee of some lifesaving loans. When these options worked out well for the government, Chrysler sought to modify the payoff, arguing that the rewards to the government were both far greater than intended and outsize in relation to its contribution to Chrysler’s recovery. The company’s anguish over what it saw as an imbalance between payoff and performance made national news. That anguish may well be unique: to my knowledge, no managers - anywhere - have been similarly offended by unwarranted payoffs arising from options granted to themselves or their colleagues.)

说来讽刺,鼓吹期权的言辞常把它描述得多么可取,理由是它让经理和股东坐上了同一条船。实情却是,这两条船天差地别。没有哪个股东能躲开资本成本的重担,而固定价期权的持有人压根不用承担任何资本成本。股东必须权衡上行的潜力与下行的风险;期权持有人却根本没有下行。事实上,你巴不得能拿到期权的那类商业项目,往往正是你压根不愿去持有的项目。(有人白送我一张彩票,我乐意收下——但要我自己掏钱去买,绝无可能。)

Ironically, the rhetoric about options frequently describes them as desirable because they put managers and owners in the same financial boat. In reality, the boats are far different. No owner has ever escaped the burden of capital costs, whereas a holder of a fixed-price option bears no capital costs at all. An owner must weigh upside potential against downside risk; an option holder has no downside. In fact, the business project in which you would wish to have an option frequently is a project in which you would reject ownership. (I’ll be happy to accept a lottery ticket as a gift - but I’ll never buy one.)

在分红政策上,期权持有人的利益同样最有可能靠一项或许对股东不利的政策来成全。回想一下那个储蓄账户的例子。受托人攥着他的期权,会从不分红的政策中得益。反过来,账户的所有者则应该倾向于全额派发,好让这位持有期权的经理无法分食账户的留存收益。

In dividend policy also, the option holders’ interests are best served by a policy that may ill serve the owner. Think back to the savings account example. The trustee, holding his option, would benefit from a no-dividend policy. Conversely, the owner of the account should lean to a total payout so that he can prevent the option-holding manager from sharing in the account’s retained earnings.

尽管有这些毛病,期权在某些情形下仍不失为合适。我批评的是它被不加分辨地滥用;就此,我想强调三点:

Despite their shortcomings, options can be appropriate under some circumstances. My criticism relates to their indiscriminate use and, in that connection, I would like to emphasize three points:

第一,股票期权终究与整家公司的整体业绩挂钩。因此,按理说它就只该发给那些对全局负责的经理。分管有限范围的经理,其激励就该与他们在自己可控范围内取得的成果挂钩。一位打击率三成五的球员,哪怕效力于垫底的球队,也理应为自己表现拿到丰厚回报,他也确实值这个价。而一位打击率一成五的球员,哪怕身在夺冠的球队,也不该得到任何奖赏。只有对整个球队负总责的人,其回报才该与球队战绩绑在一起。

First, stock options are inevitably tied to the overall performance of a corporation. Logically, therefore, they should be awarded only to those managers with overall responsibility. Managers with limited areas of responsibility should have incentives that pay off in relation to results under their control. The .350 hitter expects, and also deserves, a big payoff for his performance - even if he plays for a cellar- dwelling team. And the .150 hitter should get no reward - even if he plays for a pennant winner. Only those with overall responsibility for the team should have their rewards tied to its results.

第二,期权的设计得仔细斟酌。若无特殊因素,期权中就该内嵌一个留存收益或持有成本的调节项。同样要紧的是,定价必须切合实际。当管理者面对别人收购自家公司的报价时,他们无一例外地会大谈市场价格作为真实价值的标尺有多不靠谱。可既然如此,为何这同一批被压低的价格,反倒成了管理者把部分业务卖给自己的估值?(他们甚至走得更远:高管和董事有时会去翻查税法,好定出实际上能把部分业务卖给内部人的最低价。顺带着,他们还常选出对公司税务后果最糟的方案。)除极个别的情形外,以廉价出售部分业务——不管买家是外人还是内部人——对股东都没好处。结论明摆着:期权应当按真实的商业价值来定价。

Second, options should be structured carefully. Absent special factors, they should have built into them a retained- earnings or carrying-cost factor. Equally important, they should be priced realistically. When managers are faced with offers for their companies, they unfailingly point out how unrealistic market prices can be as an index of real value. But why, then, should these same depressed prices be the valuations at which managers sell portions of their businesses to themselves? (They may go further: officers and directors sometimes consult the Tax Code to determine the lowest prices at which they can, in effect, sell part of the business to insiders. While they’re at it, they often elect plans that produce the worst tax result for the company.) Except in highly unusual cases, owners are not well served by the sale of part of their business at a bargain price - whether the sale is to outsiders or to insiders. The obvious conclusion: options should be priced at true business value.

第三,我想强调一点:有几位我极为敬重的经理——他们的经营战绩远比我出色——在固定价期权这件事上与我意见相左。他们建起了行之有效的企业文化,而固定价期权正是助他们成事的一件工具。通过自身的表率与领导,再辅以期权作为激励,这些经理教会了同僚像股东一样思考。这样的文化世所罕见,一旦存在,或许就该让它原封不动——哪怕期权方案里难免掺杂着低效与不公。“没坏就别修”,胜过“不惜代价求纯粹”。

Third, I want to emphasize that some managers whom I admire enormously - and whose operating records are far better than mine - disagree with me regarding fixed-price options. They have built corporate cultures that work, and fixed-price options have been a tool that helped them. By their leadership and example, and by the use of options as incentives, these managers have taught their colleagues to think like owners. Such a Culture is rare and when it exists should perhaps be left intact - despite inefficiencies and inequities that may infest the option program. “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is preferable to “purity at any price”.

而在伯克希尔,我们用的是一套与激励挂钩的薪酬体系,奖赏那些在各自地盘上达成目标的关键经理。假如喜诗糖果干得好,并不会给《布法罗新闻》带去激励奖金——反之亦然。我们签发奖金支票时,也不去看伯克希尔的股价。我们认定:无论伯克希尔股价上涨、下跌还是持平,单个业务表现出色就该获赏。同样,业绩只是平平的,哪怕我们的股价一飞冲天,也不该拿到特别奖赏。再者,“业绩”一词,会依各门生意背后的经济特性而有不同的定义:在一些业务中,经理们乘着并非自己造出的顺风;在另一些业务中,他们则要对抗躲不开的逆风。

At Berkshire, however, we use an incentive@compensation system that rewards key managers for meeting targets in their own bailiwicks. If See’s does well, that does not produce incentive compensation at the News - nor vice versa. Neither do we look at the price of Berkshire stock when we write bonus checks. We believe good unit performance should be rewarded whether Berkshire stock rises, falls, or stays even. Similarly, we think average performance should earn no special rewards even if our stock should soar. “Performance”, furthermore, is defined in different ways depending upon the underlying economics of the business: in some our managers enjoy tailwinds not of their own making, in others they fight unavoidable headwinds.

这套机制带来的回报可以相当可观。在我们各个业务单元,高层经理拿到的激励奖金,有时是底薪的五倍甚至更高;照目前来看,1986 年很可能有一位经理的奖金会突破 200 万美元(我希望如此)。我们不给奖金封顶,获利的潜力也不论资排辈。只要业绩表明他该得,一个相对较小单元的经理,完全可以比大单元的经理拿得多得多。我们还进一步认为,资历和年龄这类因素,不该左右激励薪酬(尽管它们有时会影响基本薪酬)。一个能打出三成打击率的二十岁小伙子,在我们眼里,与一个表现同样出色的四十岁的人一样金贵。

The rewards that go with this system can be large. At our various business units, top managers sometimes receive incentive bonuses of five times their base salary, or more, and it would appear possible that one manager’s bonus could top $2 million in 1986. (I hope so.) We do not put a cap on bonuses, and the potential for rewards is not hierarchical. The manager of a relatively small unit can earn far more than the manager of a larger unit if results indicate he should. We believe, further, that such factors as seniority and age should not affect incentive compensation (though they sometimes influence basic compensation). A 20-year-old who can hit .300 is as valuable to us as a 40-year-old performing as well.

显而易见,伯克希尔的所有经理都可以拿自己的奖金(或别的资金,包括借来的钱)在市场上买入我们的股票。许多人也正是这么做的——其中一些人如今持股量已相当可观。既担起直接买入伴随的风险,又扛起相应的持有成本,这些经理才算实实在在地站到了股东的位置上。

Obviously, all Berkshire managers can use their bonus money (or other funds, including borrowed money) to buy our stock in the market. Many have done just that - and some now have large holdings. By accepting both the risks and the carrying costs that go with outright purchases, these managers truly walk in the shoes of owners.

现在——总算——让我们回到那三门生意上:

Now let’s get back - at long last - to our three businesses:

在内布拉斯加家具城,我们的核心优势在于把运营成本压到极低,这让它得以长年向顾客提供家居用品市场上最实在的性价比。家具城是全美同类门店中规模最大的一家。尽管本就低迷的农业经济在 1985 年进一步恶化,这家店还是轻轻松松刷新了销售纪录。我还很高兴地向各位报告:家具城的董事长罗丝·布拉姆金(就是那位传奇的“B 夫人”),九十二岁高龄,仍在店里保持着一种我们谁也跟不上的节奏。她一周七天都在那儿谈买卖、张罗生意;我希望各位若有机会到奥马哈,都去家具城亲眼看看她的风采。那场面会激励你,就像激励我一样。

At Nebraska Furniture Mart our basic strength is an exceptionally low-cost operation that allows the business to regularly offer customers the best values available in home furnishings. NFM is the largest store of its kind in the country. Although the already-depressed farm economy worsened considerably in 1985, the store easily set a new sales record. I also am happy to report that NFM’s Chairman, Rose Blumkin (the legendary “Mrs. B”), continues at age 92 to set a pace at the store that none of us can keep up with. She’s there wheeling and dealing seven days a week, and I hope that any of you who visit Omaha will go out to the Mart and see her in action. It will inspire you, as it does me.

在喜诗糖果,我们门店的销售体量,仍然远远超越我们所知的任何竞争对手。尽管我们享有的消费者认可度无出其右,行业趋势却不乐观,我们的同店糖果磅数销量继续下滑。这给每磅成本带来了压力。目前我们只愿小幅提价;除非能把单店磅数销量稳住,否则利润率将会收窄。

At See’s we continue to get store volumes that are far beyond those achieved by any competitor we know of. Despite the unmatched consumer acceptance we enjoy, industry trends are not good, and we continue to experience slippage in poundage sales on a same-store basis. This puts pressure on per-pound costs. We now are willing to increase prices only modestly and, unless we can stabilize per-shop poundage, profit margins will narrow.

在《布法罗新闻》,要提升销量同样不容易。1985 年广告行数虽有增加,但增量全部来自夹页广告。印在我们自己版面上的正版广告(ROP 广告)行数反而下降了。夹页广告的利润远不如正版广告,也更容易受到竞争的冲击。1985 年,《新闻》再次很好地控制了成本,我们的家庭覆盖率依然出类拔萃。

At the News volume gains are also difficult to achieve. Though linage increased during 1985, the gain was more than accounted for by preprints. ROP linage (advertising printed on our own pages) declined. Preprints are far less profitable than ROP ads, and also more vulnerable to competition. In 1985, the News again controlled costs well and our household penetration continues to be exceptional.

这三门生意有一个问题是不存在的,那就是管理层。在喜诗糖果,我们有查克·哈金斯,就是我们买下这家公司当天任命的负责人。选中他,至今仍是我们最漂亮的商业决策之一。在《新闻》,我们有斯坦·利普西,一位同样水准的经理。斯坦跟了我们 17 年,每多承担一份更重的责任,他那非凡的商业才干就愈发显现。而在家具城,我们有那一门了不起的布拉姆金家人——B 夫人、路易、罗恩、欧文和史蒂夫——这是横跨三代人的管理奇迹。

One problem these three operations do not have is management. At See’s we have Chuck Huggins, the man we put in charge the day we bought the business. Selecting him remains one of our best business decisions. At the News we have Stan Lipsey, a manager of equal caliber. Stan has been with us 17 years, and his unusual business talents have become more evident with every additional level of responsibility he has tackled. And, at the Mart, we have the amazing Blumkins - Mrs. B, Louie, Ron, Irv, and Steve - a three-generation miracle of management.

能与这样几位经理共事,我觉得自己实在是幸运至极。我发自内心地喜欢他们,也由衷地敬佩他们的专业能力。

I consider myself extraordinarily lucky to be able to work with managers such as these. I like them personally as much as I admire them professionally.

保险业务

Insurance Operations

下面是我们那张常列表格的更新版,列出保险业的两项关键数据:

Shown below is an updated version of our usual table, listing two key figures for the insurance industry:

保费已赚年度变化 (%) -------------保单持有人股息后综合比率 ------------------
1972 10.296.2
1973 8.099.2
1974 6.2105.4
1975 11.0107.9
1976 21.9102.4
1977 19.897.2
1978 12.897.5
1979 10.3100.6
1980 6.0103.1
1981 3.9106.0
1982 4.4109.7
1983 4.5111.9
1984年(修订)9.2117.9
1985年(估计)... 20.9118.0
Yearly Change in Premiums Written (%) -------------Combined Ratio after Policyholder Dividends ------------------
1972 10.296.2
1973 8.099.2
1974 6.2105.4
1975 11.0107.9
1976 21.9102.4
1977 19.897.2
1978 12.897.5
1979 10.3100.6
1980 6.0103.1
1981 3.9106.0
1982 4.4109.7
1983 4.5111.9
1984 (Revised) 9.2117.9
1985 (Estimated) ... 20.9118.0

数据来源:Best’s Aggregates and Averages

Source: Best’s Aggregates and Averages

综合成本率,是保险总成本(已发生赔款加上费用)与保费收入之比:低于 100,说明承保有利可图;高于 100,则说明亏损。

The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: a ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss.

保险业 1985 年的表现极不寻常。收入增长可观;倘若这一年的赔付按近几年的常态增长——也就是比通胀率高出几个百分点——综合成本率本该大幅回落。可 1985 年的赔付偏偏不肯配合,一如 1984 年。这两年通胀明明大为放缓,赔付却反其道而行,加速攀升:1984 年涨了 16%,1985 年更是惊人地涨了 17%。这一年的赔付增速,竟高出通胀率 13 个百分点以上,创下了近代的纪录。

The industry’s 1985 results were highly unusual. The revenue gain was exceptional, and had insured losses grown at their normal rate of most recent years - that is, a few points above the inflation rate - a significant drop in the combined ratio would have occurred. But losses in 1985 didn’t cooperate, as they did not in 1984. Though inflation slowed considerably in these years, insured losses perversely accelerated, growing by 16% in 1984 and by an even more startling 17% in 1985. The year’s growth in losses therefore exceeds the inflation rate by over 13 percentage points, a modern record.

赔付成本骤增,祸首并非巨灾。诚然,1985 年飓风异乎寻常地多,但 1984、1985 两年所有巨灾造成的总损失,约占保费收入的 2%,这个比例并不反常。承保的汽车、房屋、雇主等各类“风险单位”的数量,也没有猛增。

Catastrophes were not the culprit in this explosion of loss cost. True, there were an unusual number of hurricanes in 1985, but the aggregate damage caused by all catastrophes in 1984 and 1985 was about 2% of premium volume, a not unusual proportion. Nor was there any burst in the number of insured autos, houses, employers, or other kinds of “exposure units”.

赔付数字飙升,一部分要归因于保险业 1985 年大举补提准备金。随着各家全年业绩陆续披露,那场面活像一场福音复兴布道会:保险经理们高喊着“我有罪,我有罪”,争先恐后地招认早年准备金提得不足。他们这一番修正,把 1985 年的赔付数字大大抬高了。

A partial explanation for the surge in the loss figures is all the additions to reserves that the industry made in 1985. As results for the year were reported, the scene resembled a revival meeting: shouting “I’ve sinned, I’ve sinned”, insurance managers rushed forward to confess they had under reserved in earlier years. Their corrections significantly affected 1985 loss numbers.

赔付激增中,还有一味更叫人不安的成分,那就是“社会性”或曰“司法性”通胀在加速。在陪审团和法官裁定责任与赔偿额时,保险公司的赔付能力已变得压倒性地重要。不管保单条款怎么写、事实如何、判例怎样,那只“深口袋”越来越被人四处寻找,也越来越被人找到。

A more disturbing ingredient in the loss surge is the acceleration in “social” or “judicial” inflation. The insurer’s ability to pay has assumed overwhelming importance with juries and judges in the assessment of both liability and damages. More and more, “the deep pocket” is being sought and found, no matter what the policy wording, the facts, or the precedents.

这种司法通胀,是行业未来的一张无从预料的牌,让预测无从下手。尽管如此,短期前景还是不错的。随着 1985 年推进,保费增长一路走高(四个季度的增幅估计分别为 15%、19%、24% 和 22%);只要不出超级巨灾,1986 年全行业的综合成本率理应大幅回落。

This judicial inflation represents a wild card in the industry’s future, and makes forecasting difficult. Nevertheless, the short-term outlook is good. Premium growth improved as 1985 went along (quarterly gains were an estimated 15%, 19%, 24%, and 22%) and, barring a supercatastrophe, the industry’s combined ratio should fall sharply in 1986.

不过,这份利润改善多半长不了,有两条经济法则管着这件事。其一,大宗商品生意,唯有在价格被某种方式锁定、或产能吃紧时,才能赚到像样的钱。其二,一旦前景开始好转、又有资本可用,经理们便会飞快地扩充产能。

The profit improvement, however, is likely to be of short duration. Two economic principles will see to that. First, commodity businesses achieve good levels of profitability only when prices are fixed in some manner or when capacity is short. Second, managers quickly add to capacity when prospects start to improve and capital is available.

在 1982 年给各位的信里,我曾详加剖析保险业的大宗商品本质。典型的投保人并不区分产品,只盯着价格。几十年里,一套近乎卡特尔的做法把价格撑在高位,但这套安排已一去不返。如今保险产品的定价,与任何存在自由市场的大宗商品别无二致:产能吃紧时,价格便定得有利可图;否则便不然。

In my 1982 report to you, I discussed the commodity nature of the insurance industry extensively. The typical policyholder does not differentiate between products but concentrates instead on price. For many decades a cartel-like procedure kept prices up, but this arrangement has disappeared for good. The insurance product now is priced as any other commodity for which a free market exists: when capacity is tight, prices will be set remuneratively; otherwise, they will not be.

眼下,许多保险险种的产能确实吃紧——只不过在这个行业,与大多数行业不同,产能是个心态上的概念,而非实打实的东西。保险经理想承保多少业务,全凭自己觉得踏实,唯一的约束来自监管机构,以及行业里权威的评级机构 Best’s。而无论经理还是监管者,那份踏实感都系于资本。资本越多,心里越踏实,产能也就越大。此外,在铝或钢铁这类典型的大宗商品生意里,新产能从孕育到落地要熬过一段漫长的周期。而在保险业,资本转眼即可到手。于是,任何产能短缺,都能在短时间内被填平。

Capacity currently is tight in many lines of insurance - though in this industry, unlike most, capacity is an attitudinal concept, not a physical fact. Insurance managers can write whatever amount of business they feel comfortable writing, subject only to pressures applied by regulators and Best’s, the industry’s authoritative rating service. The comfort level of both managers and regulators is tied to capital. More capital means more comfort, which in turn means more capacity. In the typical commodity business, furthermore, such as aluminum or steel, a long gestation precedes the birth of additional capacity. In the insurance industry, capital can be secured instantly. Thus, any capacity shortage can be eliminated in short order.

眼下正在上演的,就是这一幕。1985 年,约 15 家保险公司募集了超过 30 亿美元,囤起资本,好在当前更优的价钱下,把能承保的业务尽数收入囊中。进入 1986 年,这股募资势头更是急剧加速。

That’s exactly what’s going on right now. In 1985, about 15 insurers raised well over $3 billion, piling up capital so that they can write all the business possible at the better prices now available. The capital-raising trend has accelerated dramatically so far in 1986.

产能若照这个速度加下去,用不了多久,狠命杀价的局面就会冒头,紧接着便是利润下滑。等这一天来临,该怪的是 1985、1986 年那批募资的人,而不是 198X 年那批杀价的人。(不过,批评者也该体谅:正如我们纺织业那个例子,资本主义的内在动力,驱使每家保险公司都做出对自己看似明智的决定,可这些决定合到一处,却把整个行业的利润削去了一大截。)

If capacity additions continue at this rate, it won’t be long before serious price-cutting appears and next a fall in profitability. When the fall comes, it will be the fault of the capital-raisers of 1985 and 1986, not the price-cutters of 198X. (Critics should be understanding, however: as was the case in our textile example, the dynamics of capitalism cause each insurer to make decisions that for itself appear sensible, but that collectively slash profitability.)

在过去的报告里,我告诉过各位:伯克希尔雄厚的资本实力——全行业最强——终有一天会让我们在保险市场上握有一项独到的竞争优势。随着市场收紧,那一天来了。在长年停滞之后,我们的保费收入去年翻了两倍还多。伯克希尔的财务实力(以及我们无论顺境逆境都守住这份超常实力的历史),如今成了我们揽下优质业务的一大本钱。

In past reports, I have told you that Berkshire’s strong capital position - the best in the industry - should one day allow us to claim a distinct competitive advantage in the insurance market. With the tightening of the market, that day arrived. Our premium volume more than tripled last year, following a long period of stagnation. Berkshire’s financial strength (and our record of maintaining unusual strength through thick and thin) is now a major asset for us in securing good business.

我们准确料到,许多大额保险和再保险的买家会转而追求品质——他们迟迟才醒悟:一张保单不过是一张借条,而 1985 年,他们手里许多借条根本兑不了现。这些买家如今被伯克希尔吸引,正因为我们资本雄厚。但还有一层我们没料到的进展:我们发现,买家找上门来,还因为我们承接大额风险的能力,让我们在同行中显得与众不同。

We correctly foresaw a flight to quality by many large buyers of insurance and reinsurance who belatedly recognized that a policy is only an IOU - and who, in 1985, could not collect on many of their IOUs. These buyers today are attracted to Berkshire because of its strong capital position. But, in a development we did not foresee, we also are finding buyers drawn to us because our ability to insure substantial risks sets us apart from the crowd.

要弄懂这一点,你得先了解几条关于大额风险的背景。历来许多保险公司都想承保这类业务。可它们敢接,几乎总是仰仗一套再保险安排:保险公司只把一小截风险留给自己,其余大部分统统转移(“分保”)给再保险公司。打个比方,有一张董事及高级职员(D&O)责任险保单,保额 2500 万美元。凭着各式各样的“超赔”再保险合同,签发这张保单的公司,或许只承担任何一笔损失中头 100 万美元的责任。超出这个数、直到 2400 万美元的那部分责任,则由签发公司的再保险人扛下。用行话说,一家公司签发大额保单,却只为自己账上留下相对很小的一截风险,那就叫“毛承保额很大,净自留额很小”。

To understand this point, you need a few background facts about large risks. Traditionally, many insurers have wanted to write this kind of business. However, their willingness to do so has been almost always based upon reinsurance arrangements that allow the insurer to keep just a small portion of the risk itself while passing on (“laying off”) most of the risk to its reinsurers. Imagine, for example, a directors and officers (“D & O”) liability policy providing $25 million of coverage. By various “excess-of-loss” reinsurance contracts, the company issuing that policy might keep the liability for only the first $1 million of any loss that occurs. The liability for any loss above that amount up to $24 million would be borne by the reinsurers of the issuing insurer. In trade parlance, a company that issues large policies but retains relatively little of the risk for its own account writes a large gross line but a small net line.

在任何再保险安排中,一个关键问题都是:为这张保单支付的保费,应如何在各层风险之间划分。以我们的 D&O 保单为例,收到的保费中,签发公司应自留多少,才算公平补偿它承担头 100 万美元的风险,又有多少应转给再保险人,才算公平补偿他们承担 100 万到 2500 万美元之间那段风险?

<<<END P 1>>>

In any reinsurance arrangement, a key question is how the premiums paid for the policy should be divided among the various “layers” of risk. In our D & O policy, for example. what part of the premium received should be kept by the issuing company to compensate it fairly for taking the first $1 million of risk and how much should be passed on to the reinsurers to compensate them fairly for taking the risk between $1 million and $25 million?

解这道题,有一种办法或可称作帕特里克·亨利式:“指引我脚步的灯只有一盏,那就是经验之灯。”换句话说:过去,再保险人得拿到总保费的几成,才够公道地补偿他们实际扛下的那些损失?

One way to solve this problem might be deemed the Patrick Henry approach: “I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience.” In other words, how much of the total premium would reinsurers have needed in the past to compensate them fairly for the losses they actually had to bear?

糟糕的是,这盏经验之灯为再保险人照出的光,向来就不清亮,因为他们的业务大多是“长尾”的——要过许多年,才知道损失究竟有多大。而近来,这盏灯不仅昏暗,它照出的影像还大大失真、误人不浅。也就是说,法院动辄判出既金额巨大、又毫无先例可循的赔偿,这就让再保险人一贯从旧数据里做的那套外推和推断,变成了一道通往灾难的公式。帕特里克·亨利靠边站,换波戈登场:“未来早已不是从前那个样子了。”

Unfortunately, the lamp of experience has always provided imperfect illumination for reinsurers because so much of their business is “long-tail”, meaning it takes many years before they know what their losses are. Lately, however, the light has not only been dim but also grossly misleading in the images it has revealed. That is, the courts’ tendency to grant awards that are both huge and lacking in precedent makes reinsurers’ usual extrapolations or inferences from past data a formula for disaster. Out with Patrick Henry and in with Pogo: “The future ain’t what it used to be.”

这门生意里节节攀升的不确定性,再加上大批不谙门道的新手涌入再保险市场,近几年反倒便宜了那些“净自留额很小”的签发公司:它们能留下的保费比例,远高于它们担下的风险比例。这么一来,签发公司有时竟能在一桩对签发与再保险双方合起来算明摆着亏本的业务上赚到钱。(这个结果未必是有意为之:对那些更高风险层最终会冒出多少成本,签发公司通常并不比再保险人知道得更多。)这类不公,在那些变数极多、损失猛涨的险种上尤为扎眼,比如职业责任险、董事及高级职员责任险、产品责任险等等。既如此,签发公司即便在毛保费已严重不足之后仍长久地热衷承保,也就不足为奇了。

The burgeoning uncertainties of the business, coupled with the entry into reinsurance of many unsophisticated participants, worked in recent years in favor of issuing companies writing a small net line: they were able to keep a far greater percentage of the premiums than the risk. By doing so, the issuing companies sometimes made money on business that was distinctly unprofitable for the issuing and reinsuring companies combined. (This result was not necessarily by intent: issuing companies generally knew no more than reinsurers did about the ultimate costs that would be experienced at higher layers of risk.) Inequities of this sort have been particularly pronounced in lines of insurance in which much change was occurring and losses were soaring; e.g., professional malpractice, D & 0, products liability, etc. Given these circumstances, it is not surprising that issuing companies remained enthusiastic about writing business long after premiums became woefully inadequate on a gross basis.

签发公司与它们的再保险人之间,业绩到底能悬殊到什么地步,从 1984 年一家大额及特殊风险领域领头公司的财报里,便可窥见一斑。那一年,这家公司签下约 60 亿美元的业务,自己留下约 25 亿美元保费,约占四成,剩下的 35 亿美元交给了再保险人。就它留下的这部分而言,承保亏损不到 2 亿美元——在那一年算是相当出色的成绩。可与此同时,分出去的那部分,却给再保险人捅出了 15 亿美元以上的窟窿。换算下来,这家签发公司的综合成本率稳稳低于 110,而参与同一批保单的再保险人,综合成本率却远远高过 140。这个结果并非自然巨灾所致,而是来自寻常的保险损失(只不过发生的频率与规模都高得吓人)。这家签发公司 1985 年的报告还没出来,但我敢断言,它会显示这种极度失衡的局面仍在延续。

An example of just how disparate results have been for issuing companies versus their reinsurers is provided by the 1984 financials of one of the leaders in large and unusual risks. In that year the company wrote about $6 billion of business and kept around $2 1/2 billion of the premiums, or about 40%. It gave the remaining $3 1/2 billion to reinsurers. On the part of the business kept, the company’s underwriting loss was less than $200 million - an excellent result in that year. Meanwhile, the part laid off produced a loss of over $1.5 billion for the reinsurers. Thus, the issuing company wrote at a combined ratio of well under 110 while its reinsurers, participating in precisely the same policies, came in considerably over 140. This result was not attributable to natural catastrophes; it came from run-of-the- mill insurance losses (occurring, however, in surprising frequency and size). The issuing company’s 1985 report is not yet available, but I would predict it will show that dramatically unbalanced results continued.

这样的年头再熬上几个,哪怕反应再迟钝的再保险人也会兴味索然——尤其是在那些爆炸性的险种上,因为签发方与再保险方之间该如何分保费,连个大概都估不出来。再保险人到头来活脱脱成了马克·吐温笔下那只猫:一朝坐上过热炉灶,从此再不肯坐——可连冷炉灶,它也再不敢挨了。在长尾意外险这一块,再保险人吃过太多冷不防的亏,以至于许多人干脆决定(多半是明智的)彻底金盆洗手,任你价钱开得多诱人也不为所动。于是,在几个要紧的险种上,再保险的承接能力急剧收缩。

A few years such as this, and even slow-witted reinsurers can lose interest, particularly in explosive lines where the proper split in premium between issuer and reinsurer remains impossible to even roughly estimate. The behavior of reinsurers finally becomes like that of Mark Twain’s cat: having once sat on a hot stove, it never did so again - but it never again sat on a cold stove, either. Reinsurers have had so many unpleasant surprises in long-tail casualty lines that many have decided (probably correctly) to give up the game entirely, regardless of price inducements. Consequently, there has been a dramatic pull- back of reinsurance capacity in certain important lines.

这一变化,让许多签发公司陷入了困境。它们再也不能像一两年前那样,把每张保单几千万美元的风险,一次次轻轻松松甩给再保险人;可它们自己,又缺乏那份资本,或那份胃口,去把大额风险揽在账上。对许多签发公司来说,毛承保能力已大大缩水,向净承保能力靠拢——而净承保能力,往往小得可怜。

This development has left many issuing companies under pressure. They can no longer commit their reinsurers, time after time, for tens of millions per policy as they so easily could do only a year or two ago, and they do not have the capital and/or appetite to take on large risks for their own account. For many issuing companies, gross capacity has shrunk much closer to net capacity - and that is often small, indeed.

在伯克希尔,我们从不玩“分出去赚个差价”那一套;直到不久前,这还让我们在某些险种上处于严重下风。如今风水轮流转:我们有承保的实力,别人却没有。只要价钱我们觉得合适,除了那几家最大的保险公司,我们敢开出比谁都大的净自留额。举例来说,只要我们认定价钱合适、且这一损失风险与我们承保的其他风险无甚关联,我们完全乐意在单一事件上,拿自己 1000 万美元去冒险。肯在单一事件上冒一半这个数的保险公司都寥寥无几——尽管就在不久之前,许多公司还乐意冒上五倍、十倍于此的损失,只要那损失几乎全记在再保险人的账上。

At Berkshire we have never played the lay-it-off-at-a-profit game and, until recently, that put us at a severe disadvantage in certain lines. Now the tables are turned: we have the underwriting capability whereas others do not. If we believe the price to be right, we are willing to write a net line larger than that of any but the largest insurers. For instance, we are perfectly willing to risk losing $10 million of our own money on a single event, as long as we believe that the price is right and that the risk of loss is not significantly correlated with other risks we are insuring. Very few insurers are willing to risk half that much on single events - although, just a short while ago, many were willing to lose five or ten times that amount as long as virtually all of the loss was for the account of their reinsurers.

1985 年年中,我们旗下最大的保险公司国民赔偿公司,在一家保险周刊上连登三期广告,昭告天下自己乐于承保大额风险。广告只招揽大单:保费最低 100 万美元。这则广告引来惊人的 600 份回应,最终落下约 5000 万美元保费。(先别忙着鼓掌:这全是长尾业务,至少要等五年,我们才知道这次营销上的成功,是不是也是承保上的成功。)如今,为客户遍寻大额净承保能力的经纪人,仍不断找上我们的保险子公司。

In mid-1985 our largest insurance company, National Indemnity Company, broadcast its willingness to underwrite large risks by running an ad in three issues of an insurance weekly. The ad solicited policies of only large size: those with a minimum premium of $1 million. This ad drew a remarkable 600 replies and ultimately produced premiums totaling about $50 million. (Hold the applause: it’s all long-tail business and it will be at least five years before we know whether this marketing success was also an underwriting success.) Today, our insurance subsidiaries continue to be sought out by brokers searching for large net capacity.

正如我所言,这段吃紧的日子终会过去;保险公司和再保险公司会重新回到压价承保的老路。但接下来一两年,我们保险业务的好几块,应当能有不错的收成。迈克·戈德堡在经营上做了许多要紧的改进(你们的主席从前经营不善,倒给他留下了大把施展的余地)。他近来尤其在延揽有出色潜质的年轻经理上颇有斩获。1986 年,他们将有机会一显身手。

As I have said, this period of tightness will pass; insurers and reinsurers will return to underpricing. But for a year or two we should do well in several segments of our insurance business. Mike Goldberg has made many important improvements in the operation (prior mismanagement by your Chairman having provided him ample opportunity to do so). He has been particularly successful recently in hiring young managers with excellent potential. They will have a chance to show their stuff in 1986.

我们的综合成本率有所好转——从 1984 年的 134 降到 1985 年的 111——但仍在为过去的错误买单。去年我向各位坦白过,自己在损失准备金上犯下的大错,并承诺此后每年向你们更新赔付发展的数据。当然,我许下这个承诺时,本以为往后的记录会大有起色。可到目前为止,并非如此。去年赔付发展的详情见第 50-52 页,它们表明 1984 年底准备金明显不足——一如此前的好几年。

Our combined ratio has improved - from 134 in 1984 to 111 in 1985 - but continues to reflect past misdeeds. Last year I told you of the major mistakes I had made in loss-reserving, and promised I would update you annually on loss-development figures. Naturally, I made this promise thinking my future record would be much improved. So far this has not been the case. Details on last year’s loss development are on pages 50-52. They reveal significant underreserving at the end of 1984, as they did in the several years preceding.

这幅图景里唯一的亮色是:1984 年暴露出的准备金不足,几乎全出在再保险这一块——而且绝大部分,集中在几份数年前就已停做的合同上。可这套说辞,偏偏让我想起多年前通用再保险公司时任董事长跟我讲的一个故事。他说,每年他的经理们都来告诉他:“要不是佛罗里达那场飓风”,或者“要不是中西部那些龙卷风”,本该是极好的一年。最后他把众人召到一处,提议大家另起一家新公司——“要不是保险公司”——今后凡是他们日后不想算进账里的业务,统统塞进去。

The only bright spot in this picture is that virtually all of the underreserving revealed in 1984 occurred in the reinsurance area - and there, in very large part, in a few contracts that were discontinued several years ago. This explanation, however, recalls all too well a story told me many years ago by the then Chairman of General Reinsurance Company. He said that every year his managers told him that “except for the Florida hurricane” or “except for Midwestern tornadoes”, they would have had a terrific year. Finally he called the group together and suggested that they form a new operation - the Except-For Insurance Company - in which they would henceforth place all of the business that they later wouldn’t want to count.

不管做的是保险还是别的什么,“要不是”这三个字,都该从字典里划掉。既然要下场比赛,就得把九局里所有落到你头上的失分,一分不落地记齐。任何一个经理,若总是把“要不是”挂在嘴边,然后大谈他从错误里学到的教训,那他很可能错过了唯一要紧的那条教训——真正的错误不在那桩事,而在做那桩事的人。

In any business, insurance or otherwise, “except for” should be excised from the lexicon. If you are going to play the game, you must count the runs scored against you in all nine innings. Any manager who consistently says “except for” and then reports on the lessons he has learned from his mistakes may be missing the only important lesson - namely, that the real mistake is not the act, but the actor.

当然,经营上的错误在所难免,聪明的经理会设法从中悟出恰当的教训。但诀窍在于:大多数教训要从别人的经历里学。那些过去总从自己教训里长记性的经理,往后多半还得靠自己的教训来长记性。

Inevitably, of course, business errors will occur and the wise manager will try to find the proper lessons in them. But the trick is to learn most lessons from the experiences of others. Managers who have learned much from personal experience in the past usually are destined to learn much from personal experience in the future.

伯克希尔持股 38% 的 GEICO,1985 年在保费增长和投资上交出了出色的一年,但在承保上——以它自己那高标准衡量——却是糟糕的一年。私家车险和房主险,是当年全行业里唯二显著恶化的重要险种。GEICO 没能躲过这股大势,不过它的成绩,仍远胜几乎所有主要对手。

GEICO, 38%-owned by Berkshire, reported an excellent year in 1985 in premium growth and investment results, but a poor year - by its lofty standards - in underwriting. Private passenger auto and homeowners insurance were the only important lines in the industry whose results deteriorated significantly during the year. GEICO did not escape the trend, although its record was far better than that of virtually all its major competitors.

杰克·伯恩年中离开了 GEICO,去执掌消防员基金,身后留下比尔·斯奈德任董事长、卢·辛普森任副董事长。杰克把 GEICO 从破产边缘拉回来的这番功业,着实非凡,为伯克希尔挣下了巨额收益,这一点我们欠他良多。

Jack Byrne left GEICO at mid-year to head Fireman’s Fund, leaving behind Bill Snyder as Chairman and Lou Simpson as Vice Chairman. Jack’s performance in reviving GEICO from near- bankruptcy was truly extraordinary, and his work resulted in enormous gains for Berkshire. We owe him a great deal for that.

同样令我们感念杰克的是,他做成了一件多数杰出领导者都难以企及的事:找到了才干堪与自己匹敌的接班人。凭借识别、吸引并培养人才的能力,他把比尔和卢发掘并培养起来,使自己的这份经营恩泽远远延伸到了卸任之后。

We are equally indebted to Jack for an achievement that eludes most outstanding leaders: he found managers to succeed him who have talents as valuable as his own. By his skill in identifying, attracting and developing Bill and Lou, Jack extended the benefits of his managerial stewardship well beyond his tenure.

火灾基金比例分保合同

Fireman’s Fund Quota-Share Contract

从来不肯放过一张饭票的我们,跟着杰克·伯恩去了火灾基金(Fireman‘s Fund,简称 FFIC),他正是这家控股公司的董事长兼首席执行官。

Never one to let go of a meal ticket, we have followed Jack Byrne to Fireman’s Fund (“FFIC”) where he is Chairman and CEO of the holding company.

1985 年 9 月 1 日,我们成为 FFIC 集团全部有效业务的 7% 参与方,但该公司为非关联方承保的再保险除外。合同为期四年,并约定在整个合同期内,我们的损失与费用均按其对应比例分担。若合同未获续期,此后我们便不再参与任何持续进行的业务。但在未来很多年里,我们仍需就 1985 年 9 月 1 日至 1989 年 8 月 31 日期间发生的损失,按 7% 的份额向 FFIC 作出偿付。

On September 1, 1985 we became a 7% participant in all of the business in force of the FFIC group, with the exception of reinsurance they write for unaffiliated companies. Our contract runs for four years, and provides that our losses and costs will be proportionate to theirs throughout the contract period. If there is no extension, we will thereafter have no participation in any ongoing business. However, for a great many years in the future, we will be reimbursing FFIC for our 7% of the losses that occurred in the September 1, 1985 - August 31, 1989 period.

根据合同,FFIC 会将保费及时划转给我们,我们则就 FFIC 已支付的费用和赔款及时向其偿还。这样一来,归属于我们这一份额的业务所产生的资金,便会留在我们手里用于投资。作为交易的一部分,我可随时向 FFIC 就总体投资策略提供咨询。但我并不参与 FFIC 的具体投资决策,伯克希尔也不涉足该公司的任何承保活动。

Under the contract FFIC remits premiums to us promptly and we reimburse FFIC promptly for expenses and losses it has paid. Thus, funds generated by our share of the business are held by us for investment. As part of the deal, I’m available to FFIC for consultation about general investment strategy. I’m not involved, however, in specific investment decisions of FFIC, nor is Berkshire involved in any aspect of the company’s underwriting activities.

目前 FFIC 的业务规模约为 30 亿美元,随着费率上升未来可能还会更高。公司 1985 年 9 月 1 日的未到期保费准备金为 13.24 亿美元,因此在合同起始时便将其中的 7%,即 9270 万美元,转给了我们;同时我们向其支付了 2940 万美元,用以补偿他们就这笔转入保费已产生的承保费用。FFIC 的全部业务均由国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity Company)承保,但其中七分之二会分转给西科金融保险公司(Wes-FIC),后者是我们持股 80% 的子公司西科金融公司(Wesco Financial Corporation)新设立的一家公司。关于 Wes-FIC 以及再保险业务,查理·芒格在第 60-62 页有一些饶有兴味的点评。

Currently FFIC is doing about $3 billion of business, and it will probably do more as rates rise. The company’s September 1, 1985 unearned premium reserve was $1.324 billion, and it therefore transferred 7% of this, or $92.7 million, to us at initiation of the contract. We concurrently paid them $29.4 million representing the underwriting expenses that they had incurred on the transferred premium. All of the FFIC business is written by National Indemnity Company, but two-sevenths of it is passed along to Wesco-Financial Insurance Company (“Wes-FIC”), a new company organized by our 80%-owned subsidiary, Wesco Financial Corporation. Charlie Munger has some interesting comments about Wes-FIC and the reinsurance business on pages 60- 62.

在第 41 页的保险分部表格中,我们新增了一栏,题为“主要比例分保合同”。FFIC 合同 1985 年的经营结果便列示于此,但由于这项安排刚开始不久,这些数据仅是极为粗略的近似结果。

To the Insurance Segment tables on page 41, we have added a new line, labeled Major Quota Share Contracts. The 1985 results of the FFIC contract are reported there, though the newness of the arrangement makes these results only very rough approximations.

年底之后,我们又签下另一份比例分保合同,其 1986 年的保费规模应会超过 5000 万美元。我们希望能拓展更多此类业务,而行业状况也表明我们确实有机会:有相当数量的公司承保的业务量,已经超过了它们自身能够审慎承担的限度。凭借雄厚的资金实力,我们对于此类公司而言是颇具吸引力的合作伙伴。

After the end of the year, we secured another quota-share contract, whose 1986 volume should be over $50 million. We hope to develop more of this business, and industry conditions suggest that we could: a significant number of companies are generating more business than they themselves can prudently handle. Our financial strength makes us an attractive partner for such companies.

有价证券

Marketable Securities

下表所列,是我们截至 1985 年底持有的有价权益证券净持仓。凡市值超过 2500 万美元的仓位均已列出,并已剔除了应归属于西科金融和内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)少数股东的权益。

We show below our 1985 yearend net holdings in marketable equities. All positions with a market value over $25 million are listed, and the interests attributable to minority shareholders of Wesco and Nebraska Furniture Mart are excluded.

股数                                                成本        市值
-------------                                       ---------- ----------
                                                     (千美元省略)
1,036,461    Affiliated Publications, Inc.           3,516      55,710
900,800      American Broadcasting Companies, Inc.   54,435     108,997
2,350,922    Beatrice Companies, Inc.                106,811    108,142
6,850,000    GEICO Corporation                       45,713     595,950
2,379,200    Handy & Harman                          27,318     43,718
847,788      Time, Inc.                              20,385     52,669
1,727,765    The Washington Post Company              9,731     205,172
                                                    ---------- ----------
                                                      267,909   1,170,358
            所有其他普通股持股                       7,201      27,963
                                                    ---------- ----------
            普通股总计                              $275,110   $1,198,321
                                                    ========== ==========
No. of Shares                                           Cost       Market
-------------                                        ----------  ----------
                                                         (000s omitted)
  1,036,461    Affiliated Publications, Inc. .......   $ 3,516    $  55,710
    900,800    American Broadcasting Companies, Inc.    54,435      108,997
  2,350,922    Beatrice Companies, Inc. ............   106,811      108,142
  6,850,000    GEICO Corporation ...................    45,713      595,950
  2,379,200    Handy & Harman ......................    27,318       43,718
    847,788    Time, Inc. ..........................    20,385       52,669
  1,727,765    The Washington Post Company .........     9,731      205,172
                                                     ----------  ----------
                                                       267,909    1,170,358
               All Other Common Stockholdings ......     7,201       27,963
                                                     ----------  ----------
               Total Common Stocks                    $275,110   $1,198,321
                                                     ==========  ==========

之前我们曾提及,在过去十年里,投资环境已从伟大公司完全不被赏识,转变为如今能获得恰如其分的认可。《华盛顿邮报》公司(The Washington Post Company,简称 WPC)便是一个绝佳的例子。

We mentioned earlier that in the past decade the investment environment has changed from one in which great businesses were totally unappreciated to one in which they are appropriately recognized. The Washington Post Company (“WPC”) provides an excellent example.

我们所持的全部 WPC 股票均是在 1973 年年中买入的,买价不高于当时该企业每股商业价值的四分之一。计算出这一价格与价值之比,并不需要什么与众不同的洞察。大多数证券分析师、媒体行业经纪人和媒体高管,大概都会和我们一样,将 WPC 的内在商业价值估在 4 亿至 5 亿美元之间。而它 1 亿美元的股票市值每天都会公开发布,所有人都看得见。我们的优势,毋宁说在于态度:我们从本·格雷厄姆那里学到,成功投资的关键,是在市场价格远低于企业内在商业价值时,买进好公司的股票。

We bought all of our WPC holdings in mid-1973 at a price of not more than one-fourth of the then per-share business value of the enterprise. Calculating the price/value ratio required no unusual insights. Most security analysts, media brokers, and media executives would have estimated WPC’s intrinsic business value at $400 to $500 million just as we did. And its $100 million stock market valuation was published daily for all to see. Our advantage, rather, was attitude: we had learned from Ben Graham that the key to successful investing was the purchase of shares in good businesses when market prices were at a large discount from underlying business values.

反观 20 世纪 70 年代初的大多数机构投资者,在决定买卖价格时,却把商业价值看得无足轻重。这在今天看来简直难以置信。然而,当年这些机构正被名牌商学院的学者们所迷惑,那些人鼓吹一套时髦的新理论:股票市场是完全有效的,因此,商业价值的计算——乃至思考本身——在投资活动中都无关紧要。(对于那些学者我们真是感恩戴德:在智力竞赛中——无论是桥牌、国际象棋还是选股——还有什么比对手被教导说思考是白费力气更有利的呢?)

Most institutional investors in the early 1970s, on the other hand, regarded business value as of only minor relevance when they were deciding the prices at which they would buy or sell. This now seems hard to believe. However, these institutions were then under the spell of academics at prestigious business schools who were preaching a newly-fashioned theory: the stock market was totally efficient, and therefore calculations of business value - and even thought, itself - were of no importance in investment activities. (We are enormously indebted to those academics: what could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest - whether it be bridge, chess, or stock selection than to have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?)

整个 1973 年和 1974 年,作为一家企业,WPC 的经营依旧出色,内在价值也在持续增长。然而,到了 1974 年底,我们的 WPC 持股却显示亏损了约 25%,市值为 800 万美元,而我们的成本是 1060 万美元。仅仅一年前我们还觉得便宜得离谱的东西,现在变得更加便宜了,因为市场以它那非凡的智慧,将 WPC 的股价压到了一个远低于其内在价值两折的位置。

Through 1973 and 1974, WPC continued to do fine as a business, and intrinsic value grew. Nevertheless, by yearend 1974 our WPC holding showed a loss of about 25%, with market value at $8 million against our cost of $10.6 million. What we had thought ridiculously cheap a year earlier had become a good bit cheaper as the market, in its infinite wisdom, marked WPC stock down to well below 20 cents on the dollar of intrinsic value.

大家都知道后面的美好结局。WPC 的首席执行官凯·格雷厄姆,既有智慧又有勇气,利用那低廉的价格为公司回购了大量股份,同时还具备了大幅提升企业商业价值的卓越管理才能。与此同时,投资者也开始认识到这门生意非同寻常的经济特质,股价随之逐步向内在价值回归。于是,我们得以体验三重收益:公司的商业价值大幅攀升;因股票回购,每股商业价值的增长速度显著加快;再加上折价幅度的收窄,股价的涨幅又超越了每股商业价值的增幅。

You know the happy outcome. Kay Graham, CEO of WPC, had the brains and courage to repurchase large quantities of stock for the company at those bargain prices, as well as the managerial skills necessary to dramatically increase business values. Meanwhile, investors began to recognize the exceptional economics of the business and the stock price moved closer to underlying value. Thus, we experienced a triple dip: the company’s business value soared upward, per-share business value increased considerably faster because of stock repurchases and, with a narrowing of the discount, the stock price outpaced the gain in per-share business value.

除了在 1985 年的比例赎回中卖回给公司的那些股份外,我们在 1973 年买入的所有 WPC 股票至今仍然持有。股份赎回所得款项加上我们持仓年底的市值,合计为 2.21 亿美元。

We hold all of the WPC shares we bought in 1973, except for those sold back to the company in 1985’s proportionate redemption. Proceeds from the redemption plus yearend market value of our holdings total $221 million.

倘若当初我们把那 1060 万美元,投进 1973 年年中投资者追捧的任何一家媒体公司,到年底这笔持股大约值 4000 万到 6000 万美元。我们的收益本会远远跑赢大盘,这正反映出媒体生意非凡的经济特质。而我们靠持有《华盛顿邮报》公司多挣的那约 1.6 亿美元,绝大部分要归功于凯做出的经营决策——比起多数媒体公司的经营者,她实在高明太多。她那份惊人的商业成就,大半不曾见诸报端;但在伯克希尔的股东中间,它不该被埋没。

If we had invested our $10.6 million in any of a half-dozen media companies that were investment favorites in mid-1973, the value of our holdings at yearend would have been in the area of $40 - $60 million. Our gain would have far exceeded the gain in the general market, an outcome reflecting the exceptional economics of the media business. The extra $160 million or so we gained through ownership of WPC came, in very large part, from the superior nature of the managerial decisions made by Kay as compared to those made by managers of most media companies. Her stunning business success has in large part gone unreported but among Berkshire shareholders it should not go unappreciated.

下一节会讲到我们买进大都会/美国广播公司的事,正是这笔交易,要求我在 1986 年初退出《华盛顿邮报》公司董事会。但只要联邦通信委员会的规则允许,我们打算无限期持有《华盛顿邮报》公司的股票。我们相信它的商业价值会以合理的速度增长,也深知它的管理层既有能力、又心系股东。只不过,市场如今给它的估值已超过 18 亿美元;从这样一个起点出发,价值增长的速度,再怎么也不可能接近当年它估值仅 1 亿美元时的水平。既然我们其他持股的市场价格也一样被推高,整个组合都面临同样大幅收窄的潜在回报。

Our Capital Cities purchase, described in the next section, required me to leave the WPC Board early in 1986. But we intend to hold indefinitely whatever WPC stock FCC rules allow us to. We expect WPC’s business values to grow at a reasonable rate, and we know that management is both able and shareholder-oriented. However, the market now values the company at over $1.8 billion, and there is no way that the value can progress from that level at a rate anywhere close to the rate possible when the company’s valuation was only $100 million. Because market prices have also been bid up for our other holdings, we face the same vastly- reduced potential throughout our portfolio.

各位会注意到,年底我们持有相当数量的比阿特丽斯公司(Beatrice Companies)股票。这是一笔短线套利头寸——说白了,是给资金找的一处临时停放地(但并非全然稳妥,因为交易有时会告吹,酿成不小的亏损)。每当我们手头的钱多过好点子,偶尔会涉足套利,但只参与已经公开宣布的并购与出售。假如眼下押在这些短线上的资金,能觅得一处长久的归宿,我们会高兴得多。可就目前而言,前景暗淡。

You will notice that we had a significant holding in Beatrice Companies at yearend. This is a short-term arbitrage holding - in effect, a parking place for money (though not a totally safe one, since deals sometimes fall through and create substantial losses). We sometimes enter the arbitrage field when we have more money than ideas, but only to participate in announced mergers and sales. We would be a lot happier if the funds currently employed on this short-term basis found a long- term home. At the moment, however, prospects are bleak.

年底时,我们的保险子公司持有约 4 亿美元的免税债券,其中按摊余成本计 1.94 亿美元,是华盛顿公共电力供应系统(简称 WPPSS)1、2、3 号项目的债券。这一头寸,去年我已充分讨论过,并说明了缘由:我们要过很久之后才会进一步披露买卖情况(这与我们对股票采取的做法一致)。年底我们在 WPPSS 债券上的未实现收益为 6200 万美元,其中约三分之一来自债券整体的上涨,其余则来自投资者对 WPPSS 1、2、3 号项目转趋正面的看法。这些 WPPSS 债券每年带来的免税收入约 3000 万美元。

At yearend our insurance subsidiaries had about $400 million in tax-exempt bonds, of which $194 million at amortized cost were issues of Washington Public Power Supply System (“WPPSS”) Projects 1, 2, and 3. 1 discussed this position fully last year, and explained why we would not disclose further purchases or sales until well after the fact (adhering to the policy we follow on stocks). Our unrealized gain on the WPPSS bonds at yearend was $62 million, perhaps one-third arising from the upward movement of bonds generally, and the remainder from a more positive investor view toward WPPSS 1, 2, and 3s. Annual tax- exempt income from our WPPSS issues is about $30 million.

大都会/美国广播公司(Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.)

Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.

新年刚过,伯克希尔以每股 172.50 美元买进 300 万股大都会/美国广播公司股票,这个价格正是 1985 年 3 月初我们做出承诺时的市价。关于大都会公司的管理层,我多年来一直有个公开的说法:我认为它是全美所有上市公司里最出色的。汤姆·墨菲和丹·伯克不仅是了不起的经营者,更是那种你巴不得把女儿嫁给他的人。能与他们共事是一种荣幸——而且乐趣无穷,认识他们的人自会明白这一点。

Right after yearend, Berkshire purchased 3 million shares of Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. (“Cap Cities”) at $172.50 per share, the market price of such shares at the time the commitment was made early in March, 1985. I’ve been on record for many years about the management of Cap Cities: I think it is the best of any publicly-owned company in the country. And Tom Murphy and Dan Burke are not only great managers, they are precisely the sort of fellows that you would want your daughter to marry. It is a privilege to be associated with them - and also a lot of fun, as any of you who know them will understand.

我们买下这些股票,帮助大都会公司完成了对美国广播公司 35 亿美元的收购。对大都会公司而言,美国广播公司是一桩大事业,往后几年的经济效益多半会平淡无奇。这丝毫不叫我们心烦;我们极有耐心。(无论才华多高、力气多足,有些事就是急不来:你没法让九个女人同时怀孕,指望一个月就抱上孩子。)

Our purchase of stock helped Cap Cities finance the $3.5 billion acquisition of American Broadcasting Companies. For Cap Cities, ABC is a major undertaking whose economics are likely to be unexciting over the next few years. This bothers us not an iota; we can be very patient. (No matter how great the talent or effort, some things just take time: you can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.)

为表明我们的信心,我们签下了一份不同寻常的协议:在很长一段时期内,我们这些股票的投票权,交由担任首席执行官的汤姆行使(若日后丹出任首席执行官,则交由丹)。这个安排是查理和我主动提出的,并非出自汤姆。我们还从多个方面,给自己出售股票设下了限制。这些限制的目的,是确保未经管理层同意,我们这一大笔股票不会被卖给任何大股东或有意成为大股东的人——这与我们几年前在 GEICO 和《华盛顿邮报》主动提出的安排如出一辙。

As evidence of our confidence, we have executed an unusual agreement: for an extended period Tom, as CEO (or Dan, should he be CEO) votes our stock. This arrangement was initiated by Charlie and me, not by Tom. We also have restricted ourselves in various ways regarding sale of our shares. The object of these restrictions is to make sure that our block does not get sold to anyone who is a large holder (or intends to become a large holder) without the approval of management, an arrangement similar to ones we initiated some years ago at GEICO and Washington Post.

既然大宗股票往往能卖出溢价,或许有人会觉得,我们施加这些限制,在财务上损害了伯克希尔。我们的看法正好相反。在我们看来,这些安排反而提升了这些生意的长期经济前景——因而也提升了我们这些股东的前景。有了这些安排,与我们结盟的那些一流经营者,就能把全部心力完全放在经营企业、为股东把长期价值做到最大上头。这显然远胜于让那些经营者被“旋转门资本家”牵着分神——那帮人一心盼着把公司“拿来炒作”。(当然,也有些经营者把自己的利益凌驾于公司和股东之上,理应被敲打一番——但我们在做投资时,一向尽量避开这类人。)

Since large blocks frequently command premium prices, some might think we have injured Berkshire financially by creating such restrictions. Our view is just the opposite. We feel the long-term economic prospects for these businesses - and, thus, for ourselves as owners - are enhanced by the arrangements. With them in place, the first-class managers with whom we have aligned ourselves can focus their efforts entirely upon running the businesses and maximizing long-term values for owners. Certainly this is much better than having those managers distracted by “revolving-door capitalists” hoping to put the company “in play”. (Of course, some managers place their own interests above those of the company and its owners and deserve to be shaken up - but, in making investments, we try to steer clear of this type.)

如今,公司的不稳定是投票权高度分散必然带来的后果。任何时候都可能冒出一个大股东,嘴上多半说的是一套安抚人心的漂亮话,心里却常揣着不那么客气的算盘。我们时常约束自己手中的大宗股票,正是想在本可能欠缺稳定的地方,增添一份稳定。这一份确定性,配上好的经营者和好的生意,便是一方能结出丰厚财务果实的沃土。这就是我们那套安排在经济上的逻辑。

Today, corporate instability is an inevitable consequence of widely-diffused ownership of voting stock. At any time a major holder can surface, usually mouthing reassuring rhetoric but frequently harboring uncivil intentions. By circumscribing our blocks of stock as we often do, we intend to promote stability where it otherwise might be lacking. That kind of certainty, combined with a good manager and a good business, provides excellent soil for a rich financial harvest. That’s the economic case for our arrangements.

人的这一面同样要紧。我们不愿让那些我们喜欢、敬重、又欢迎我们大举投入资金的经营者,因为我们这个大股东的身份而夜不能寐,时时担心会不会冒出什么意外。我告诉过他们:不会有意外。而这些协议,就是把伯克希尔的签名,落在了我这句话上。这个签名还意味着:他们拿到的是公司层面的承诺,因此哪怕我本人过早退出伯克希尔的事务(“过早”,我把它定义为不到三位数的任何年纪),他们也无需忧心。

The human side is just as important. We don’t want managers we like and admire - and who have welcomed a major financial commitment by us - to ever lose any sleep wondering whether surprises might occur because of our large ownership. I have told them there will be no surprises, and these agreements put Berkshire’s signature where my mouth is. That signature also means the managers have a corporate commitment and therefore need not worry if my personal participation in Berkshire’s affairs ends prematurely (a term I define as any age short of three digits).

我们买入大都会公司,出的是十足的价钱,这也反映出近年来市场对媒体股票和媒体资产所积聚的相当高的热情(就某些资产的收购而言,已近乎狂热)。这一领域绝非捡便宜的地方。但投资大都会公司,让我们与一组出类拔萃的资产和人才结为同盟——我们很乐意有这样大规模参与的机会。

Our Cap Cities purchase was made at a full price, reflecting the very considerable enthusiasm for both media stocks and media properties that has developed in recent years (and that, in the case of some property purchases, has approached a mania). it’s no field for bargains. However, our Cap Cities investment allies us with an exceptional combination of properties and people - and we like the opportunity to participate in size.

当然,你们中有些人大概会纳闷:既然你们的主席在 1978 至 1980 年间,凭着他那标志性的一阵“英明神武”,把伯克希尔持有的同一家公司股票以每股 43 美元卖了个精光,如今怎么又要以每股 172.50 美元买入大都会公司?料到各位会有此一问,我把 1985 年的大半光阴都花在了琢磨一个能将这两件事圆过去的漂亮说辞上。

Of course, some of you probably wonder why we are now buying Cap Cities at $172.50 per share given that your Chairman, in a characteristic burst of brilliance, sold Berkshire’s holdings in the same company at $43 per share in 1978-80. Anticipating your question, I spent much of 1985 working on a snappy answer that would reconcile these acts.

请再给我一点时间。

A little more time, please.

收购斯科特-费泽(Scott & Fetzer)

Acquisition of Scott & Fetzer

新年刚过,我们以约 3.2 亿美元收购了克利夫兰的斯科特-费泽公司。(此外,斯科特-费泽原有的约 9000 万美元债务仍保留在账上。)在本报告的下一节,我描述了伯克希尔希望收购的企业类型。斯科特-费泽正是一个范本——好懂、够大、经营有方、赚钱出色。

Right after yearend we acquired The Scott & Fetzer Company (“Scott Fetzer”) of Cleveland for about $320 million. (In addition, about $90 million of pre-existing Scott Fetzer debt remains in place.) In the next section of this report I describe the sort of businesses that we wish to buy for Berkshire. Scott Fetzer is a prototype - understandable, large, well-managed, a good earner.

这家公司年销售额约 7 亿美元,来自 17 项业务,其中不少在各自领域数一数二。多数业务的投资资本回报率都在良好到优异之间。旗下一些知名产品有:Kirby 家用清洁系统、Campbell Hausfeld 空气压缩机,以及 Wayne 燃烧器和水泵。

The company has sales of about $700 million derived from 17 businesses, many leaders in their fields. Return on invested capital is good to excellent for most of these businesses. Some well-known products are Kirby home-care systems, Campbell Hausfeld air compressors, and Wayne burners and water pumps.

World Book 公司约占斯科特-费泽销售额的 40%,利润占比还要略高一点,是这家公司规模最大的业务。它在本行业里也是当之无愧的龙头,每年卖出的百科全书套数是最接近的对手的两倍多。事实上,它在美国的销量比排名紧随其后的四家竞争对手加起来还要多。

World Book, Inc. - accounting for about 40% of Scott Fetzer’s sales and a bit more of its income - is by far the company’s largest operation. It also is by far the leader in its industry, selling more than twice as many encyclopedia sets annually as its nearest competitor. In fact, it sells more sets in the U.S. than its four biggest competitors combined.

我与查理对 World Book 这门生意特别感兴趣,因为我们把它的百科全书视为一件非同寻常的产品。二十五年来我一直是它的拥趸(也是用户),如今我的孙辈也开始像我的孩子当年那样翻阅它。World Book 经常被老师、图书馆员和消费者选购指南评为最实用的百科全书,可它的售价却比任何一家主要竞争对手都低。World Book 公司旗下的另一件产品 Childcraft,性价比同样出众。正是 World Book 公司这种“一流产品搭配亲民价格”的组合,让我们愿意掏钱买下斯科特-费泽——尽管当时直销行业里许多公司业绩正在下滑。

Charlie and I have a particular interest in the World Book operation because we regard its encyclopedia as something special. I’ve been a fan (and user) for 25 years, and now have grandchildren consulting the sets just as my children did. World Book is regularly rated the most useful encyclopedia by teachers, librarians and consumer buying guides. Yet it sells for less than any of its major competitors. Childcraft, another World Book, Inc. product, offers similar value. This combination of exceptional products and modest prices at World Book, Inc. helped make us willing to pay the price demanded for Scott Fetzer, despite declining results for many companies in the direct- selling industry.

斯科特-费泽还有一处同样打动我们的地方,就是它任职九年的首席执行官拉尔夫·谢伊。拉尔夫接手时,公司有 31 项业务,那是 1960 年代一轮收购狂潮留下的摊子。他把许多不搭调或利润前景有限的业务剥离出去;但他一门心思整顿这堆原有杂烩之余,却没有错过 1978 年 World Book 挂牌出售的机会。拉尔夫在经营和资本配置上的战绩极为出色,能与他携手,我们喜不自胜。

An equal attraction at Scott Fetzer is Ralph Schey, its CEO for nine years. When Ralph took charge, the company had 31 businesses, the result of an acquisition spree in the 1960s. He disposed of many that did not fit or had limited profit potential, but his focus on rationalizing the original potpourri was not so intense that he passed by World Book when it became available for purchase in 1978. Ralph’s operating and capital- allocation record is superb, and we are delighted to be associated with him.

斯科特-费泽这桩收购的来龙去脉颇有意思:在我们介入之前,它经历了一番曲折。这家公司从 1984 年初就已挂出待售的招牌。一家大型投资银行花了几个月时间,接洽了几十家潜在买家,勾起了其中几家的兴趣。到 1985 年年中,一份由员工持股计划(ESOP)大举参与的出售方案终获股东通过。可交割一路难产,这份方案最终还是泡了汤。

The history of the Scott Fetzer acquisition is interesting, marked by some zigs and zags before we became involved. The company had been an announced candidate for purchase since early 1984. A major investment banking firm spent many months canvassing scores of prospects, evoking interest from several. Finally, in mid-1985 a plan of sale, featuring heavy participation by an ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan), was approved by shareholders. However, as difficulty in closing followed, the plan was scuttled.

这段公司浮沉,我一直通过报纸追着看。10 月 10 日,也就是那份 ESOP 交易彻底告吹之后,我给素未谋面的拉尔夫写了封短信,说我们很欣赏这家公司的过往业绩,问他是否愿意聊一聊。10 月 22 日,查理和我在芝加哥与拉尔夫共进晚餐,隔了一周便签下收购合同。

I had followed this corporate odyssey through the newspapers. On October 10, well after the ESOP deal had fallen through, I wrote a short letter to Ralph, whom I did not know. I said we admired the company’s record and asked if he might like to talk. Charlie and I met Ralph for dinner in Chicago on October 22 and signed an acquisition contract the following week.

斯科特-费泽这桩收购,加上我们保险业务的大幅增长,应能把 1986 年的收入推上 20 亿美元,比 1985 年翻一番还多。

The Scott Fetzer acquisition, plus major growth in our insurance business, should push revenues above $2 billion in 1986, more than double those of 1985.

杂项

Miscellaneous

斯科特-费泽这桩收购恰好说明,我们在并购上多少有些随缘的做派。我们没有什么总体战略,没有企业规划师给我们递上关于社会经济大势的高见,也没有一支团队去筛查掮客和中间人塞过来的成堆点子。我们不过是单纯盼着某桩靠谱的买卖自己撞上门来——它一露面,我们便出手。

The Scott Fetzer purchase illustrates our somewhat haphazard approach to acquisitions. We have no master strategy, no corporate planners delivering us insights about socioeconomic trends, and no staff to investigate a multitude of ideas presented by promoters and intermediaries. Instead, we simply hope that something sensible comes along - and, when it does, we act.

为给命运搭把手,我们再次把那则常登的“求购企业”广告重贴一遍。与去年的措辞相比,唯一的改动在第(1)条:因为我们仍希望每一桩收购都能对伯克希尔的财务结果产生看得见的分量,我们把最低利润门槛调高了。

To give fate a helping hand, we again repeat our regular “business wanted” ad. The only change from last year’s copy is in (1): because we continue to want any acquisition we make to have a measurable impact on Berkshire’s financial results, we have raised our minimum profit requirement.

以下便是我们要找的:(1)大额收购(税后盈利至少 1000 万美元);(2)已证明的、持续的盈利能力(对未来的预测我们兴趣不大,扭亏为盈的题材也一样);(3)几乎不用或全然不用负债,就能取得良好净资产收益率的生意;(4)管理层现成到位(这个我们没法配);(5)业务简单(要是技术含量太高,我们看不懂);(6)要有报价(价格不明的情况下,连初步谈一谈都是浪费我们和卖家的时间)。

Here’s what we’re looking for: (1) large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings), (2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are “turn-around” situations), (3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt, (4) management in place (we can’t supply it), (5) simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it), (6) an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).

我们绝不参与恶意收购。我们能承诺全程严格保密,并给出极快的答复——通常五分钟之内,就告知我们是否感兴趣。我们偏好用现金收购,但只要换股所得到的内在商业价值与我们付出的相当,也会考虑增发股票。事实上,随着近来伯克希尔股价走高,涉及增发股票的交易也许相当可行。我们欢迎潜在卖家去向那些从前与我们打过交道的人打听我们的为人。对合适的生意——以及合适的人——我们能给出一个好归宿。

We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily within five minutes - as to whether we’re interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuance of stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. Indeed, following recent advances in the price of Berkshire stock, transactions involving stock issuance may be quite feasible. We invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. For the right business - and the right people - we can provide a good home.

另一头,也常有人找上门来谈收购,可那些买卖离我们的标准差着十万八千里:新创企业、扭亏项目、拍卖式甩卖,还有那句(在经纪人当中永远流行的)“只要你们两边先认识认识,事儿准能成”。这类东西,我们半点兴趣也没有。

On the other hand, we frequently get approached about acquisitions that don’t come close to meeting our tests: new ventures, turnarounds, auction-like sales, and the ever-popular (among brokers) “I’m-sure-something-will-work-out-if-you-people- get-to-know-each-other”. None of these attracts us in the least.

  • * *
  • * *

除了像上面说的那样整家整家地收购,我们也乐意通过协议方式买进大额但不构成控股的股票,一如我们买入大都会公司那样。只有当我们对这门生意的经济状况以及掌舵者的能力与操守都极为放心时,这类投资才对我们有吸引力。我们偏爱大额交易:特殊情形下,我们也可能做一笔小到 5000 万美元(甚至更小)的买卖,但我们更中意的是数倍于此的体量。

Besides being interested in the purchases of entire businesses as described above, we are also interested in the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock, as in our Cap Cities purchase. Such purchases appeal to us only when we are very comfortable with both the economics of the business and the ability and integrity of the people running the operation. We prefer large transactions: in the unusual case we might do something as small as $50 million (or even smaller), but our preference is for commitments many times that size.

  • * *
  • * *

1985 年,伯克希尔约 96.8% 的合格股份参与了股东指定捐款计划。该计划共捐出 400 万美元,惠及 1724 家慈善机构。去年我们做了一次全员投票,想听听大家对这个计划、以及对我们股息政策的看法。(我们清楚,问题一经措辞就可能左右答案,因此尽力把措辞拟得中立。)投票表和结果列在第 69 页的附录里。要我说,可以公允地这样概括各位的反馈:你们对现行政策十分拥护;而就群体倾向而言——考虑到人们偏爱维持现状的心理——你们希望随着公司资产价值的增长,逐年提高慈善捐款的力度。

About 96.8% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire’s 1985 shareholder-designated contributions program. Total contributions made through the program were $4 million, and 1,724 charities were recipients. We conducted a plebiscite last year in order to get your views about this program, as well as about our dividend policy. (Recognizing that it’s possible to influence the answers to a question by the framing of it, we attempted to make the wording of ours as neutral as possible.) We present the ballot and the results in the Appendix on page 69. I think it’s fair to summarize your response as highly supportive of present policies and your group preference - allowing for the tendency of people to vote for the status quo - to be for increasing the annual charitable commitment as our asset values build.

我们恳请新股东读一读第 66、67 页对股东指定捐款计划的说明。你若想参与今后的计划,我们强烈建议:即刻确认你的股票登记在实际持有人名下,而非以券商代持名义或代名人名义登记。凡在 1986 年 9 月 30 日尚未如此登记的股票,都将无缘 1986 年度的计划。

We urge new shareholders to read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 66 and 67. If you wish to participate in future programs, we strongly urge that you immediately make sure that your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in “street” name or nominee name. Shares not so registered on September 30, 1986 will be ineligible for the 1986 program.

  • * *
  • * *

五年前,根据《1969 年银行控股公司法》,我们被要求处置所持有的伊利诺伊州罗克福德市伊利诺伊国民银行与信托公司的股份。我们的处置方式不同寻常:我们公布了罗克福德 Bancorp 公司(伊利诺伊国民银行的控股公司)股票与伯克希尔股票之间的换股比率,然后让每一位股东——除我本人之外——自行决定,是将手中的伯克希尔股票全部、部分,还是一股不换地换成罗克福德股票。剩下的罗克福德股票归我,因此我个人在罗克福德的持股,完全由你们的选择来决定。当时我说:“这一做法体现了世上最古老、最朴素的公平分物之道。就像你们小时候,一个人切蛋糕,另一个人先挑。我已尽力把公司切得公平,但先挑哪一块的权利,交给你们。”

Five years ago we were required by the Bank Holding Company Act of 1969 to dispose of our holdings in The Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois. Our method of doing so was unusual: we announced an exchange ratio between stock of Rockford Bancorp Inc. (the Illinois National’s holding company) and stock of Berkshire, and then let each of our shareholders - except me - make the decision as to whether to exchange all, part, or none of his Berkshire shares for Rockford shares. I took the Rockford stock that was left over and thus my own holding in Rockford was determined by your decisions. At the time I said, “This technique embodies the world’s oldest and most elementary system of fairly dividing an object. Just as when you were a child and one person cut the cake and the other got first choice, I have tried to cut the company fairly, but you get first choice as to which piece you want.”

去年秋天,伊利诺伊国民银行被出售。待罗克福德的清算完成后,其股东每股获得的所得,将大致等于该银行出售时伯克希尔的每股内在价值。让我欣慰的是,这五年的结果表明,那块蛋糕分得还算公平。

Last fall Illinois National was sold. When Rockford’s liquidation is completed, its shareholders will have received per-share proceeds about equal to Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value at the time of the bank’s sale. I’m pleased that this five-year result indicates that the division of the cake was reasonably equitable.

去年我为我们的股东大会做了宣传,各位也应约而来。在三千多名注册股东中,有超过两百五十位到场。到会的诸位一如往年,所提的问题,正是聪慧而热心的股东会问的那种。你参加再多的股东大会,也未必碰得上我们这样一群股东。(莱斯特·马多克斯任佐治亚州州长时,曾因该州糟糕透顶的监狱系统而受到批评。“办法很简单”,他说,“我们只需要换一批更好的囚犯。”提升股东大会的质量,也是同样的道理。)

Last year I put in a plug for our annual meeting, and you took me up on the invitation. Over 250 of our more than 3,000 registered shareholders showed up. Those attending behaved just as those present in previous years, asking the sort of questions you would expect from intelligent and interested owners. You can attend a great many annual meetings without running into a crowd like ours. (Lester Maddox, when Governor of Georgia, was criticized regarding the state’s abysmal prison system. “The solution”, he said, “is simple. All we need is a better class of prisoners.” Upgrading annual meetings works the same way.)

希望各位来参加今年的股东大会,时间是 5 月 20 日,地点在奥马哈。只有一处变化:在忠于另一种软饮料 48 年之后,你们的主席以一次前所未有的行为灵活性展示,改投了新出的樱桃可乐。自此以后,它便是伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会的官方饮品。

I hope you come to this year’s meeting, which will be held on May 20 in Omaha. There will be only one change: after 48 years of allegiance to another soft drink, your Chairman, in an unprecedented display of behavioral flexibility, has converted to the new Cherry Coke. Henceforth, it will be the Official Drink of the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting.

请带好钱:B 夫人承诺,如果你会后惠顾内布拉斯加家具城,那里将有不计其数的实惠好物等着你。

And bring money: Mrs. B promises to have bargains galore if you will pay her a visit at The Nebraska Furniture Mart after the meeting.

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

1986 年 3 月 4 日

March 4, 1986