1988 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 11393 词
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致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股份有限公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

1988 年,我们的净资产增加了 5.69 亿美元,增幅 20.0%。过去 24 年间(即自现任管理层接手以来),我们的每股账面价值从 19.46 美元增长到 2,974.52 美元,年复合增长率为 23.0%。

Our gain in net worth during 1988 was $569 million, or 20.0%. Over the last 24 years (that is, since present management took over), our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $2,974.52, or at a rate of 23.0% compounded annually.

我们在以往的年报中一再强调,真正重要的是内在业务价值——这个数字必然只是估算,它反映我们旗下所有业务单元加起来究竟值多少钱。按我们的计算,伯克希尔的内在业务价值远高于账面价值。这 24 年里,业务价值的增速一直略快于账面价值;不过 1988 年,账面价值增长稍快了一些。

We’ve emphasized in past reports that what counts, however, is intrinsic business value - the figure, necessarily an estimate, indicating what all of our constituent businesses are worth. By our calculations, Berkshire’s intrinsic business value significantly exceeds its book value. Over the 24 years, business value has grown somewhat faster than book value; in 1988, however, book value grew the faster, by a bit.

伯克希尔过去在账面价值和业务价值上取得的增长率,是在与今天截然不同的环境下实现的。谁要是无视这些差异,就会犯下和棒球领队一样的错误——凭一名 42 岁中外野手的生涯打击率,去判断他日后的前景。

Berkshire’s past rates of gain in both book value and business value were achieved under circumstances far different from those that now exist. Anyone ignoring these differences makes the same mistake that a baseball manager would were he to judge the future prospects of a 42-year-old center fielder on the basis of his lifetime batting average.

眼下拖累我们前景的重要不利因素有四:其一,股市的吸引力不如过去 24 年大部分时间里的水平;其二,多数投资收入适用的公司税率上升;其三,收购企业的市场价码高得多;其四,大都会/美国广播公司、GEICO 公司和《华盛顿邮报》公司——伯克希尔的三项永久性投资,合计约占我们净资产的一半——所处的行业环境,与五到十年前相比,从略微不利到明显不利不等。这些公司都拥有一流的管理层和坚实的业务基础。但按当前价格,它们的上行空间在我们看来已远不如几年前那样诱人。

Important negatives affecting our prospects today are: (1) a less attractive stock market than generally existed over the past 24 years; (2) higher corporate tax rates on most forms of investment income; (3) a far more richly-priced market for the acquisition of businesses; and (4) industry conditions for Capital Cities/ABC, Inc., GEICO Corporation, and The Washington Post Company - Berkshire’s three permanent investments, constituting about one-half of our net worth - that range from slightly to materially less favorable than those existing five to ten years ago. All of these companies have superb management and strong properties. But, at current prices, their upside potential looks considerably less exciting to us today than it did some years ago.

然而,我们面对的头号难题是不断膨胀的资本基数。这话你们从前也听我们讲过,但这个难题就像年龄,分量一年重过一年。(而且同样地,这问题继续变大,也总好过被“解决”掉。)

The major problem we face, however, is a growing capital base. You’ve heard that from us before, but this problem, like age, grows in significance each year. (And also, just as with age, it’s better to have this problem continue to grow rather than to have it “solved.”)

四年前我告诉过你们,要在此后十年里实现 15% 的年回报率,我们需要 39 亿美元的利润。如今,要在下一个十年里做到 15% 的回报,则需要 103 亿美元的利润。在我和查理·芒格——伯克希尔副董事长、也是我的合伙人——看来,这是个极其吓人的数字。(万一这数字真的大到难以企及,查理在往后的年报里就会被追认为资深合伙人。)

Four years ago I told you that we needed profits of $3.9 billion to achieve a 15% annual return over the decade then ahead. Today, for the next decade, a 15% return demands profits of $10.3 billion. That seems like a very big number to me and to Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner. (Should that number indeed prove too big, Charlie will find himself, in future reports, retrospectively identified as the senior partner.)

不断膨胀的资本基数拖累着回报率,为了部分抵消这种拖累,我们如今握有一个 24 年前所没有的重要优势。当年,我们全部资本都困在一门经济特性极其糟糕、无从摆脱的纺织生意里。今天,我们的一部分资本已投在几门确实出类拔萃的生意上。

As a partial offset to the drag that our growing capital base exerts upon returns, we have a very important advantage now that we lacked 24 years ago. Then, all our capital was tied up in a textile business with inescapably poor economic characteristics. Today part of our capital is invested in some really exceptional businesses.

去年,我们给这几门生意起了个名号,叫“七圣徒”:《布法罗新闻》、费希海默、柯比、内布拉斯加家具城、斯科特-费泽制造集团、喜诗和世界图书。1988 年,圣徒们旗开得胜。第 45 页那份按历史成本编制的财务报表把七圣徒和另外几家较小的业务单元合在一起,看一眼就知道它们的资本回报率有多惊人。在完全不借助财务杠杆的情况下,这一组的平均净资产收益率约为 67%。

Last year we dubbed these operations the Sainted Seven: Buffalo News, Fechheimer, Kirby, Nebraska Furniture Mart, Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, See’s, and World Book. In 1988 the Saints came marching in. You can see just how extraordinary their returns on capital were by examining the historical-cost financial statements on page 45, which combine the figures of the Sainted Seven with those of several smaller units. With no benefit from financial leverage, this group earned about 67% on average equity capital.

多数情况下,这些业务单元的出众表现,部分归功于它们非凡的经济特许权;而所有情况下,一流的管理层都是关键因素。查理和我所做的贡献,就是放手让这些经理人自己干。

In most cases the remarkable performance of these units arises partially from an exceptional business franchise; in all cases an exceptional management is a vital factor. The contribution Charlie and I make is to leave these managers alone.

依我判断,这些企业作为一个整体,将继续创造卓越的回报。我们也需要这份回报:没有它们撑着,伯克希尔要实现 15% 的目标根本没有指望。你们尽可放心,我们的运营经理人一定会交出成绩;未来真正的问号,是查理和我能否把他们挣来的资金有效地用出去。

In my judgment, these businesses, in aggregate, will continue to produce superb returns. We’ll need these: Without this help Berkshire would not have a chance of achieving our 15% goal. You can be sure that our operating managers will deliver; the question mark in our future is whether Charlie and I can effectively employ the funds that they generate.

在这方面,我们 1989 年初迈出了正确的一步:收购了奥马哈珠宝商波仙(Borsheim's) 80% 的权益。这笔收购本信后文另有交代,它正是我们苦苦寻找的东西——一门出色的生意,掌舵的又是我们喜欢、敬佩、信得过的人。这是开年的好彩头。

In that respect, we took a step in the right direction early in 1989 when we purchased an 80% interest in Borsheim’s, a jewelry business in Omaha. This purchase, described later in this letter, delivers exactly what we look for: an outstanding business run by people we like, admire, and trust. It’s a great way to start the year.

会计变更

Accounting Changes

我们做了一项 1988 年强制要求的重大会计变更,1990 年很可能还要再做一项。每当我们在各年度之间挪动数字、而经济实质并无任何改变时,就少不了一场我们向来“扣人心弦”的会计讨论。

We have made a significant accounting change that was mandated for 1988, and likely will have another to make in 1990. When we move figures around from year to year, without any change in economic reality, one of our always-thrilling discussions of accounting is necessary.

首先,容我照例声明一句:公认会计原则(GAAP)纵有种种弊病,可要我去另设一套更好的规则,我是万万不愿的。不过,现行规则的局限不该成为束缚:首席执行官尽可把 GAAP 报表当作起点,而非履行告知所有者和债权人义务的终点——事实上他们理应如此。说到底,任何子公司的经理,若只交出一份剔除了老板(母公司首席执行官)所需关键信息、光秃秃的 GAAP 数字,都得吃不了兜着走。那么,首席执行官本人又凭什么向他的老板——公司的股东所有者——隐瞒对他们至关重要的信息呢?

First, I’ll offer my customary disclaimer: Despite the shortcomings of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), I would hate to have the job of devising a better set of rules. The limitations of the existing set, however, need not be inhibiting: CEOs are free to treat GAAP statements as a beginning rather than an end to their obligation to inform owners and creditors - and indeed they should. After all, any manager of a subsidiary company would find himself in hot water if he reported barebones GAAP numbers that omitted key information needed by his boss, the parent corporation’s CEO. Why, then, should the CEO himself withhold information vitally useful to his bosses - the shareholder-owners of the corporation?

需要披露的,是能帮助懂财务的读者回答三个关键问题的数据——不论它符合 GAAP、不符合 GAAP,还是在 GAAP 之外:其一,这家公司大约值多少钱?其二,它能履行未来义务的可能性有多大?其三,在既有的条件下,经理人干得怎么样?

What needs to be reported is data - whether GAAP, non-GAAP, or extra-GAAP - that helps financially-literate readers answer three key questions: (1) Approximately how much is this company worth? (2) What is the likelihood that it can meet its future obligations? and (3) How good a job are its managers doing, given the hand they have been dealt?

多数情况下,仅凭最低限度的 GAAP 披露,想从中找到上述问题中一个或多个的答案,其难度介于困难与不可能之间。商业世界实在太过复杂,单凭一套规则无法有效描述所有企业的经济现实,尤其像伯克希尔这样业务种类繁多的企业。

In most cases, answers to one or more of these questions are somewhere between difficult and impossible to glean from the minimum GAAP presentation. The business world is simply too complex for a single set of rules to effectively describe economic reality for all enterprises, particularly those operating in a wide variety of businesses, such as Berkshire.

更棘手的是,许多管理层压根不把 GAAP 当作要去遵守的标准,而是当作要去绕过的障碍。他们的会计师又往往乐于从旁协助。(客户问:“二加二等于几?”会计师会意地回一句:“您想要几?”)即便诚实、心存善意的管理层,有时也会把 GAAP 稍微拉伸一点,好呈现出他们认为更能贴切说明业绩的数字。无论是“熨平”盈利,还是搞一个“大洗澡”的季度,都是原本正直的管理层也会使用的“善意谎言”手法。

Further complicating the problem is the fact that many managements view GAAP not as a standard to be met, but as an obstacle to overcome. Too often their accountants willingly assist them. (“How much,” says the client, “is two plus two?” Replies the cooperative accountant, “What number did you have in mind?”) Even honest and well-intentioned managements sometimes stretch GAAP a bit in order to present figures they think will more appropriately describe their performance. Both the smoothing of earnings and the “big bath” quarter are “white lie” techniques employed by otherwise upright managements.

再往下,还有一类经理人主动利用 GAAP 来欺骗和欺诈。他们心知肚明,许多投资者和债权人把 GAAP 数字奉为圭臬。于是这些江湖骗子“别出心裁”地诠释规则,将交易记录得在技术上合乎 GAAP,实则向世人展现的只是一种经济假象。

Then there are managers who actively use GAAP to deceive and defraud. They know that many investors and creditors accept GAAP results as gospel. So these charlatans interpret the rules “imaginatively” and record business transactions in ways that technically comply with GAAP but actually display an economic illusion to the world.

只要投资者——包括那些号称老练的机构——愿意给稳步攀升的账面“利润”贴上高得离谱的估值,你就可以断定,总会有些经理人和推销者,不论真相如何,都会利用 GAAP 来拼凑出这样的数字。这些年来,查理和我见过许多规模惊人的会计造假。作案者极少受到惩罚;许多人甚至未曾遭到谴责。用笔盗取巨款,远比用枪抢劫小钱安全得多。

As long as investors - including supposedly sophisticated institutions - place fancy valuations on reported “earnings” that march steadily upward, you can be sure that some managers and promoters will exploit GAAP to produce such numbers, no matter what the truth may be. Over the years, Charlie and I have observed many accounting-based frauds of staggering size. Few of the perpetrators have been punished; many have not even been censured. It has been far safer to steal large sums with a pen than small sums with a gun.

依照 GAAP 在 1988 年强制实施的一项重大变更,我们被要求将所有子公司的资产负债表和利润表全面合并。过去,互惠储蓄贷款公司和斯科特-费泽金融公司(一家主要为世界图书和柯比产品分期销售提供融资的信贷公司)是按“单行合并”处理的。也就是说,我们(1)在伯克希尔合并资产负债表上,把我们在其合并净资产中的权益列为一项单行资产,以及(2)在合并利润表上,把我们在其合并年度盈利中的权益列为一项单行收益。如今准则要求我们必须把这些公司的每一项资产和负债并入资产负债表,将其每一笔收入和费用并入利润表。

Under one major change mandated by GAAP for 1988, we have been required to fully consolidate all our subsidiaries in our balance sheet and earnings statement. In the past, Mutual Savings and Loan, and Scott Fetzer Financial (a credit company that primarily finances installment sales of World Book and Kirby products) were consolidated on a “one-line” basis. That meant we (1) showed our equity in their combined net worths as a single- entry asset on Berkshire’s consolidated balance sheet and (2) included our equity in their combined annual earnings as a single-line income entry in our consolidated statement of earnings. Now the rules require that we consolidate each asset and liability of these companies in our balance sheet and each item of their income and expense in our earnings statement.

这一变化突显出,公司也同样需要披露分部数据:常规财务报表将经济性质迥异的业务混合在一起的越多,这些报表的用处就越小,投资者也就越难回答前面提出的那三个问题。事实上,我们之所以在伯克希尔编制合并数字,唯一的原因就是应对外部要求。另一方面,查理和我则不断研究我们的分部数据。

This change underscores the need for companies also to report segmented data: The greater the number of economically diverse business operations lumped together in conventional financial statements, the less useful those presentations are and the less able investors are to answer the three questions posed earlier. Indeed, the only reason we ever prepare consolidated figures at Berkshire is to meet outside requirements. On the other hand, Charlie and I constantly study our segment data.

既然如今我们被要求在 GAAP 报表中把更多数字捆绑在一起,我们便决定提供额外的补充信息,我们认为这能帮助你们同时衡量业务价值和管理层业绩。(至于伯克希尔偿付债权人的能力——我们列举的第三个问题——无论你们翻阅哪份报表,都应该一目了然。)在这些补充列报中,我们不一定遵循 GAAP 程序,甚至不一定遵循公司结构。我们将尝试把主要业务活动组合归类,使其有助于分析,却又不会用细节将你们淹没。我们的目标是:假若角色互换,我们期望以何种形式获得重要信息,就以何种形式提供给你们。

Now that we are required to bundle more numbers in our GAAP statements, we have decided to publish additional supplementary information that we think will help you measure both business value and managerial performance. (Berkshire’s ability to discharge its obligations to creditors - the third question we listed - should be obvious, whatever statements you examine.) In these supplementary presentations, we will not necessarily follow GAAP procedures, or even corporate structure. Rather, we will attempt to lump major business activities in ways that aid analysis but do not swamp you with detail. Our goal is to give you important information in a form that we would wish to get it if our roles were reversed.

在第 41 至 47 页,我们分别列示了以下四组业务的合并资产负债表和利润表:(1)从事金融类业务的子公司,即互惠储蓄贷款公司和斯科特-费泽金融公司;(2)我们的保险业务,其主要投资头寸逐项列明;(3)我们的制造、出版和零售业务,剔除了某些非经营性资产和收购价格会计调整;以及(4)一个“其他”类别,包含第(3)组公司持有的非经营性资产(主要是有价证券),以及西科和伯克希尔母公司层面的各项资产与负债。

On pages 41-47 we show separate combined balance sheets and earnings statements for: (1) our subsidiaries engaged in finance- type operations, which are Mutual Savings and Scott Fetzer Financial; (2) our insurance operations, with their major investment positions itemized; (3) our manufacturing, publishing and retailing businesses, leaving aside certain non-operating assets and purchase-price accounting adjustments; and (4) an all- other category that includes the non-operating assets (primarily marketable securities) held by the companies in (3) as well as various assets and debts of the Wesco and Berkshire parent companies.

若将这四项分部的盈利和净资产相加,得出的总数会与我们 GAAP 报表上的数字吻合。不过我们要强调,这份新的列报并不在审计师的审查范围之内,他们绝不会为其背书。(事实上,他们说不定会被吓一大跳;我可不打算去问。)

If you combine the earnings and the net worths of these four segments, you will derive totals matching those shown on our GAAP statements. However, we want to emphasize that our new presentation does not fall within the purview of our auditors, who in no way bless it. (In fact, they may be horrified; I don’t want to ask.)

我前面提到,GAAP 预计在 1990 年会有一项重大变更。这项变更涉及递延税款的计算,既复杂又极具争议——争议之大,以至于原定 1989 年即开始实施的规定,被推迟了一年。

I referred earlier to a major change in GAAP that is expected in 1990. This change relates to the calculation of deferred taxes, and is both complicated and controversial - so much so that its imposition, originally scheduled for 1989, was postponed for a year.

新规一旦实施,将从多个方面影响我们。最重要的是,我们将被要求改变对保险公司所持股票未实现增值部分计提递延税款负债的计算方式。

When implemented, the new rule will affect us in various ways. Most important, we will be required to change the way we calculate our liability for deferred taxes on the unrealized appreciation of stocks held by our insurance companies.

目前,我们的该项负债是分层的。对于追溯到 1986 年及更早年份的未实现增值,共 12 亿美元,我们按 28% 的税率计提了负债;对于此后累积的 6 亿美元未实现增值,则按 34% 计提。两者的差异,反映了 1987 年生效的税率上调。

Right now, our liability is layered. For the unrealized appreciation that dates back to 1986 and earlier years, $1.2 billion, we have booked a 28% tax liability. For the unrealized appreciation built up since, $600 million, the tax liability has been booked at 34%. The difference reflects the increase in tax rates that went into effect in 1987.

然而如今看来,新会计规则将要求我们在 1990 年对全部负债一律按 34% 计提,并将由此产生的差额计入当期费用,冲减盈利。假设到 1990 年税率不变,这一步将使我们当年的盈利(进而也使我们报告的净资产)减少 7,100 万美元。拟议中的新规还会影响资产负债表上的其他项目,但这些变动对盈利和净资产的影响微乎其微。

It now appears, however, that the new accounting rule will require us to establish the entire liability at 34% in 1990, taking the charge against our earnings. Assuming no change in tax rates by 1990, this step will reduce our earnings in that year (and thereby our reported net worth) by $71 million. The proposed rule will also affect other items on our balance sheet, but these changes will have only a minor impact on earnings and net worth.

对于这项递延税款计算变更是否可取,我们没有强烈的意见。不过我们必须指出,无论是 28% 还是 34% 的税负,都不能精确刻画伯克希尔的经济现实,因为我们根本没有计划卖出那些累积了绝大部分盈利的股票。

We have no strong views about the desirability of this change in calculation of deferred taxes. We should point out, however, that neither a 28% nor a 34% tax liability precisely depicts economic reality at Berkshire since we have no plans to sell the stocks in which we have the great bulk of our gains.

对于会计不感兴趣的股东,我为我这番长篇大论致歉。我清楚,你们许多人并不会细抠我们的数据,之所以持有伯克希尔,主要是因为你们知道:(1)查理和我把大部分身家都放在伯克希尔;(2)我们经营企业的打算是,让你们的盈亏与我们的盈亏同比例变动;(3)迄今为止,我们的记录还算令人满意。用这种“信任”方式去投资,本身未必有什么不对。但另有一些股东偏爱“分析”方式,我们也希望提供他们所需的信息。在我们自己的投资中,我们寻找的正是这两种方式得出相同答案的情形。

To those of you who are uninterested in accounting, I apologize for this dissertation. I realize that many of you do not pore over our figures, but instead hold Berkshire primarily because you know that: (1) Charlie and I have the bulk of our money in Berkshire; (2) we intend to run things so that your gains or losses are in direct proportion to ours; and (3) the record has so far been satisfactory. There is nothing necessarily wrong with this kind of “faith” approach to investing. Other shareholders, however, prefer an “analysis” approach and we want to supply the information they need. In our own investing, we search for situations in which both approaches give us the same answer.

报告收益来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

除了向各位提供新的四分部会计资料,我们还会一如既往,把伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源逐项列出。

In addition to supplying you with our new four-sector accounting material, we will continue to list the major sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings just as we have in the past.

在下表中,商誉摊销以及其他主要收购价格会计调整,并未计入各自对应的具体业务,而是汇总起来单独列示。这样处理,可以让各位看到:假如我们当初没有收购这些业务,它们本会报出怎样的盈利。为什么在我们看来,这种列报方式对投资者和经理人比标准 GAAP 更有用——后者是对各项业务逐项做收购价格调整——我在以往的年报里已经解释过了。当然,表中列出的净收益合计,与我们经审计财务报表中的 GAAP 总数完全一致。

In the following table, amortization of Goodwill and other major purchase-price accounting adjustments are not charged against the specific businesses to which they apply but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. I’ve explained in past reports why this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than the standard GAAP presentation, which makes purchase-price adjustments on a business-by-business basis. The total net earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.

关于这些业务的更多信息,见第 32 至 34 页的“业务分部”一节,以及第 36 至 40 页的“管理层讨论”一节。在那两节里,各位还能看到按 GAAP 口径报告的分部收益。至于西科旗下各业务的情况,我强烈建议各位读一读查理·芒格从第 52 页开始的致股东信,其中对当前储贷危机成因的剖析,是我见过最好的一份。此外,请特别留意戴夫·希尔斯特罗姆在精密钢材仓储公司(西科的子公司)的表现。精密钢材身处一个竞争极为激烈的行业,戴夫却始终能取得不错的投入资本回报。虽然缺乏数据佐证,但我认为,无论是 1988 年还是过往数年,他的业绩都很可能在同行中位居第一。

Further information about these businesses is given in the Business Segment section on pages 32-34, and in the Management’s Discussion section on pages 36-40. In these sections you also will find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. For information on Wesco’s businesses, I urge you to read Charlie Munger’s letter, which starts on page 52. It contains the best description I have seen of the events that produced the present savings-and-loan crisis. Also, take special note of Dave Hillstrom’s performance at Precision Steel Warehouse, a Wesco subsidiary. Precision operates in an extremely competitive industry, yet Dave consistently achieves good returns on invested capital. Though data is lacking to prove the point, I think it is likely that his performance, both in 1988 and years past, would rank him number one among his peers.

(单位:千美元,末尾三位省略)

(000s omitted)

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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

                                                        伯克希尔应占净收益
                                                        (税后及少数股东权益后)
                                   税前收益
                                   -------------------    -------------------
                                   1988       1987        1988       1987
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
营业收益:
  保险集团:
    承保                  $(11,081)  $(55,429)   $ (1,045)  $(20,696)
    净投资收益              231,250    152,483     197,779    136,658
  《布法罗新闻》             42,429     39,410      25,462     21,304
  费希海默                 14,152     13,332       7,720      6,580
  柯比                    26,891     22,408      17,842     12,891
  内布拉斯加家具城          18,439     16,837       9,099      7,554
  斯科特-费泽
    制造集团                28,542     30,591      17,640     17,555
  喜诗糖果                 32,473     31,693      19,671     17,363
  西科金融 — 除保险外       16,133      6,209      10,650      4,978
  世界百科全书              27,890     25,745      18,021     15,136
  商誉摊销                 (2,806)    (2,862)     (2,806)    (2,862)
  其他购买价格
    会计调整               (6,342)    (5,546)     (7,340)    (6,544)
  债务利息*                (35,613)   (11,474)    (23,212)    (5,905)
  股东指定
    捐款                  (4,966)    (4,938)     (3,217)    (2,963)
  其他                    41,059     23,217      27,177     13,697
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
营业收益                418,450    281,676     313,441    214,746
出售证券收益              131,671     28,838      85,829     19,806
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
所有实体总收益          $550,121   $310,514    $399,270   $234,552
                                                         Berkshire's Share 
                                                          of Net Earnings 
                                                         (after taxes and 
                                   Pre-Tax Earnings     minority interests)
                                 -------------------    -------------------
                                   1988       1987        1988       1987 
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
Operating Earnings:
  Insurance Group:
    Underwriting ............... $(11,081)  $(55,429)   $ (1,045)  $(20,696)
    Net Investment Income ......  231,250    152,483     197,779    136,658
  Buffalo News .................   42,429     39,410      25,462     21,304
  Fechheimer ...................   14,152     13,332       7,720      6,580
  Kirby ........................   26,891     22,408      17,842     12,891
  Nebraska Furniture Mart ......   18,439     16,837       9,099      7,554
  Scott Fetzer 
     Manufacturing Group .......   28,542     30,591      17,640     17,555
  See’s Candies ................   32,473     31,693      19,671     17,363
  Wesco - other than Insurance     16,133      6,209      10,650      4,978
  World Book ...................   27,890     25,745      18,021     15,136
  Amortization of Goodwill .....   (2,806)    (2,862)     (2,806)    (2,862)
  Other Purchase-Price 
     Accounting Charges ........   (6,342)    (5,546)     (7,340)    (6,544)
  Interest on Debt* ............  (35,613)   (11,474)    (23,212)    (5,905)
  Shareholder-Designated 
     Contributions .............   (4,966)    (4,938)     (3,217)    (2,963)
  Other ........................   41,059     23,217      27,177     13,697
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
Operating Earnings .............  418,450    281,676     313,441    214,746
Sales of Securities ............  131,671     28,838      85,829     19,806
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
Total Earnings - All Entities .. $550,121   $310,514    $399,270   $234,552

*不包括斯科特-费泽金融集团的利息支出。

*Excludes interest expense of Scott Fetzer Financial Group.

我们旗下运营业务取得的收益,无论以绝对水平衡量,还是与竞争对手相比,都堪称一流。为此,我们要感谢各位运营经理人:你们和我都有幸与他们共事。

The earnings achieved by our operating businesses are superb, whether measured on an absolute basis or against those of their competitors. For that we thank our operating managers: You and I are fortunate to be associated with them.

在伯克希尔,这样的合作往往地久天长。我们不会仅仅因为超级明星到了某个岁数,就把他从阵容里换下——无论是传统的 65 岁,还是 B 夫人 1988 年光明节前夕迎来的 95 岁。一流的经理人本就稀缺,岂能因为蛋糕上的蜡烛插得太满就弃之不用。何况,我们与那些新出炉的 MBA 打交道的经历也算不上美妙。他们的学业成绩总是漂亮得很,答起话来也总是滴水不漏;可惜他们往往缺了对公司的那份投入,也少了对商业的总体悟性。教新狗学老把戏,难啊。

At Berkshire, associations like these last a long time. We do not remove superstars from our lineup merely because they have attained a specified age - whether the traditional 65, or the 95 reached by Mrs. B on the eve of Hanukkah in 1988. Superb managers are too scarce a resource to be discarded simply because a cake gets crowded with candles. Moreover, our experience with newly-minted MBAs has not been that great. Their academic records always look terrific and the candidates always know just what to say; but too often they are short on personal commitment to the company and general business savvy. It’s difficult to teach a new dog old tricks.

以下是旗下主要非保险业务的最新情况:

Here’s an update on our major non-insurance operations:

○ 在内布拉斯加家具城,B 夫人(罗丝·布拉姆金)推着她的小车照旧忙个不停。她当老板已经 51 年,44 岁那年靠 500 美元起家。(想想她要是有 1,000 美元会做出什么来!)对 B 夫人来说,“老”字永远还差十年才赶得上她。

o At Nebraska Furniture Mart, Mrs. B (Rose Blumkin) and her cart roll on and on. She’s been the boss for 51 years, having started the business at 44 with $500. (Think what she would have done with $1,000!) With Mrs. B, old age will always be ten years away.

这家长期位列全美最大家居用品商店的卖场,仍在不断壮大。秋天,它新开了一处独立的 20,000 平方英尺清仓中心,进一步增强了我们在各个价位段提供实惠商品的能力。

The Mart, long the largest home furnishings store in the country, continues to grow. In the fall, the store opened a detached 20,000 square foot Clearance Center, which expands our ability to offer bargains in all price ranges.

不久前,全美最成功的百货连锁之一 Dillard's 进入奥马哈市场。它旗下不少门店都设有完整的家具部,这门生意想必也做得红火。可就在奥马哈店开业前不久,公司董事长威廉·迪拉德却宣布,他的新店不卖家具。谈到内布拉斯加家具城时,他说:“我们不想跟他们竞争。我们认为他们差不多是这一行里最棒的。”

Recently Dillard’s, one of the most successful department store operations in the country, entered the Omaha market. In many of its stores, Dillard’s runs a full furniture department, undoubtedly doing well in this line. Shortly before opening in Omaha, however, William Dillard, chairman of the company, announced that his new store would not sell furniture. Said he, referring to NFM: “We don’t want to compete with them. We think they are about the best there is.”

在《布法罗新闻》,我们极力宣扬广告的价值;而我们在内布拉斯加家具城的做法,正好证明了我们言行一致。过去三年,家具城一直是《奥马哈世界先驱报》最大的报版广告主。(报版广告指直接印在报纸版面上的那种,区别于预先印好的夹页广告。)据我所知,再无哪个主要市场是由一家家居用品商店充当报纸的头号客户。有时,我们还会在远至得梅因、苏城和堪萨斯城的报纸上投放大幅广告——每每收效不俗。做广告确实划算,只要你手里有值得叫卖的好东西。

At the Buffalo News we extol the value of advertising, and our policies at NFM prove that we practice what we preach. Over the past three years NFM has been the largest ROP advertiser in the Omaha World-Herald. (ROP advertising is the kind printed in the paper, as contrasted to the preprinted-insert kind.) In no other major market, to my knowledge, is a home furnishings operation the leading customer of the newspaper. At times, we also run large ads in papers as far away as Des Moines, Sioux City and Kansas City - always with good results. It truly does pay to advertise, as long as you have something worthwhile to offer.

B 夫人的儿子路易,加上他的两个儿子罗恩和欧文,构成了这支无往不利的布拉姆金团队。跟这一家人共事是一桩乐事。他们个个品性出众,与非凡的才干相得益彰。

Mrs. B’s son, Louie, and his boys, Ron and Irv, complete the winning Blumkin team. It’s a joy to work with this family. All its members have character that matches their extraordinary abilities.

○ 去年我把话说得很绝:《布法罗新闻》的税前利润率 1988 年准会下滑。换成几乎任何一家与我们同等规模或更大的报纸,这个预言都会应验。偏偏斯坦·利普西——上天保佑他——愣是让我出了洋相。

o Last year I stated unequivocally that pre-tax margins at The Buffalo News would fall in 1988. That forecast would have proved correct at almost any other newspaper our size or larger. But Stan Lipsey - bless him - has managed to make me look foolish.

尽管去年我们的提价幅度略低于行业平均,新闻纸成本和工资涨幅也与行业大致同步,斯坦却硬是把利润率又抬高了一丝。放眼报业,没人有比他更出色的经营管理记录。更难得的是,他一边创下这份成绩,一边还办着一份给读者提供异常丰富新闻内容的报纸。我们相信,我们的“新闻版面”占比——即报纸中用于刊登新闻的比重——高过任何一家与我们同等规模或更大的主流报纸。这一比例 1988 年为 49.5%,1987 年为 49.8%。无论利润率处在什么水平、朝什么方向走,我们都会坚持把它维持在 50% 上下。

Though we increased our prices a bit less than the industry average last year, and though our newsprint costs and wage rates rose in line with industry norms, Stan actually improved margins a tad. No one in the newspaper business has a better managerial record. He has achieved it, furthermore, while running a paper that gives readers an extraordinary amount of news. We believe that our “newshole” percentage - the portion of the paper devoted to news - is bigger than that of any other dominant paper of our size or larger. The percentage was 49.5% in 1988 versus 49.8% in 1987. We are committed to keeping it around 50%, whatever the level or trend of profit margins.

从少年时代起,查理和我就深爱着报业;买下《布法罗新闻》后的这 12 年,我们从中获得了无穷的乐趣。幸运的是,我们接手时,一流的主编默里·莱特早已在任,从那时起,他就一直让我们为这份报纸感到骄傲。

Charlie and I have loved the newspaper business since we were youngsters, and we have had great fun with the News in the 12 years since we purchased it. We were fortunate to find Murray Light, a top-flight editor, on the scene when we arrived and he has made us proud of the paper ever since.

○ 喜诗糖果 1988 年卖出创纪录的 2,510 万磅。10 月底时前景一度并不看好,多亏圣诞销量出奇地好,远超 1987 年创下的纪录,才把局面扭了过来。

o See’s Candies sold a record 25.1 million pounds in 1988. Prospects did not look good at the end of October, but excellent Christmas volume, considerably better than the record set in 1987, turned the tide.

正如我们此前告诉过你们的,喜诗的生意越来越向圣诞节集中。1988 年,公司全年利润的 90% 都是 12 月一个月赚下的——税前 3,250 万美元里,有 2,900 万美元出自这个月。(这足以让人相信真有圣诞老人。)12 月这波生意的洪流,给伯克希尔整体收益带来一处不大的季节性隆起。另一处小隆起出现在第一季度,那时世界图书的年鉴大多已售出。

As we’ve told you before, See’s business continues to become more Christmas-concentrated. In 1988, the Company earned a record 90% of its full-year profits in December: $29 million out of $32.5 million before tax. (It’s enough to make you believe in Santa Claus.) December’s deluge of business produces a modest seasonal bulge in Berkshire’s corporate earnings. Another small bulge occurs in the first quarter, when most World Book annuals are sold.

买下喜诗大约五分钟后,查理和我就把它交给了查克·哈金斯打理。看过他的成绩单,你可能会纳闷:我们怎么等了那么久才动手。

Charlie and I put Chuck Huggins in charge of See’s about five minutes after we bought the company. Upon reviewing his record, you may wonder what took us so long.

○ 在费希海默,赫尔德曼一家——鲍勃、乔治、加里、罗杰和弗雷德——就是辛辛那提版的布拉姆金家族。家具零售也好,制服制造也罢,本身都算不上有吸引力的生意。在这类行业里,唯有卓越的管理层才能带来高的投入资本回报。而这正是五位赫尔德曼所做到的。(正如大都会队播音员拉尔夫·基纳当年把投手史蒂夫·特劳特和他父亲、底特律老虎队名投手迪齐·特劳特相比时所说的:“这一家子,遗传的分量可真不小。”)

o At Fechheimer, the Heldmans - Bob, George, Gary, Roger and Fred - are the Cincinnati counterparts of the Blumkins. Neither furniture retailing nor uniform manufacturing has inherently attractive economics. In these businesses, only exceptional managements can deliver high returns on invested capital. And that’s exactly what the five Heldmans do. (As Mets announcer Ralph Kiner once said when comparing pitcher Steve Trout to his father, Dizzy Trout, the famous Detroit Tigers pitcher: “There’s a lot of heredity in that family.”)

费希海默 1988 年做了一笔颇具规模的收购。查理和我对赫尔德曼一家的生意眼光信得过,连看都没看一眼就点了头。放眼各处——哪怕是《财富》500 强顶尖公司的掌门人——能让我们如此信赖的管理层寥寥无几。

Fechheimer made a fairly good-sized acquisition in 1988. Charlie and I have such confidence in the business savvy of the Heldman family that we okayed the deal without even looking at it. There are very few managements anywhere - including those running the top tier companies of the Fortune 500 - in which we would exhibit similar confidence.

有了这笔收购,再加上一些内生增长,费希海默 1989 年的销售额应该会大幅提升。

Because of both this acquisition and some internal growth, sales at Fechheimer should be up significantly in 1989.

○ 由拉尔夫·希伊执掌的所有业务——世界图书、柯比和斯科特-费泽制造集团——1988 年都表现得可圈可点。交到拉尔夫手上的资本,回报率始终出类拔萃。

o All of the operations managed by Ralph Schey - World Book, Kirby, and The Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group - performed splendidly in 1988. Returns on the capital entrusted to Ralph continue to be exceptional.

斯科特-费泽制造集团内部,进展尤为亮眼的是其最大的一家子公司坎贝尔·豪斯费尔德。这家美国中小型空气压缩机的头号厂商,盈利自 1986 年以来已翻了一倍不止。

Within the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, particularly fine progress was recorded at its largest unit, Campbell Hausfeld. This company, the country’s leading producer of small and medium-sized air compressors, has more than doubled earnings since 1986.

柯比和世界图书 1988 年的销量双双大增,出口尤为强劲。9 月,世界图书打入苏联市场——当时该国最大的美国书店在莫斯科开张,该店唯一在售的综合性百科全书,就是我们的。

Unit sales at both Kirby and World Book were up significantly in 1988, with export business particularly strong. World Book became available in the Soviet Union in September, when that country’s largest American book store opened in Moscow. Ours is the only general encyclopedia offered at the store.

拉尔夫个人的产出高得惊人:除了把 19 门生意都经营得有声有色,他还活跃于克利夫兰诊所、俄亥俄大学、凯斯西储大学,以及一家风险投资机构——这家机构已孵化出 16 家总部设在俄亥俄的公司,还让另外许多公司起死回生。俄亥俄州和伯克希尔,都因有拉尔夫在自己这边而幸运。

Ralph’s personal productivity is amazing: In addition to running 19 businesses in superb fashion, he is active at The Cleveland Clinic, Ohio University, Case Western Reserve, and a venture capital operation that has spawned sixteen Ohio-based companies and resurrected many others. Both Ohio and Berkshire are fortunate to have Ralph on their side.

波仙珠宝

Borsheim’s

早在 1983 年,伯克希尔就买下了内布拉斯加家具城 80% 的权益。当时你们的董事长犯了个糊涂,竟没问 B 夫人一个连小学生都想得到的问题:“您老家还有没有别人也像您这样能干?”上个月,我把这个疏漏补上了:如今,我们又和这一家的另一支成了各持 80% 的合伙人。

It was in 1983 that Berkshire purchased an 80% interest in The Nebraska Furniture Mart. Your Chairman blundered then by neglecting to ask Mrs. B a question any schoolboy would have thought of: “Are there any more at home like you?” Last month I corrected the error: We are now 80% partners with another branch of the family.

1917 年 B 夫人从俄国辗转来美后,她的父母和五个兄弟姐妹随后也到了。(另外两个兄弟姐妹比她先到。)姐妹中有一位丽贝卡·弗里德曼,她与丈夫路易斯 1922 年经拉脱维亚西逃,那段旅程之凶险,不亚于 B 夫人早年取道满洲里东行的漂泊。一家人在奥马哈重聚时,身无长物。可他们随身带来的,是一副罕见的头脑、正直与工作热忱的组合——有这些,也就够了。此后,他们证明了自己战无不胜。

After Mrs. B came over from Russia in 1917, her parents and five siblings followed. (Her two other siblings had preceded her.) Among the sisters was Rebecca Friedman who, with her husband, Louis, escaped in 1922 to the west through Latvia in a journey as perilous as Mrs. B’s earlier odyssey to the east through Manchuria. When the family members reunited in Omaha they had no tangible assets. However, they came equipped with an extraordinary combination of brains, integrity, and enthusiasm for work - and that’s all they needed. They have since proved themselves invincible.

1948 年,弗里德曼先生买下了波仙——奥马哈一家小小的珠宝店。1950 年,他的儿子艾克加入进来;岁月流转,艾克的儿子艾伦,以及两位女婿马文·科恩和唐纳德·耶鲁,也先后进了这门生意。

In 1948 Mr. Friedman purchased Borsheim’s, a small Omaha jewelry store. He was joined in the business by his son, Ike, in 1950 and, as the years went by, Ike’s son, Alan, and his sons-in- law, Marvin Cohn and Donald Yale, came in also.

你不会奇怪,这一家人把布拉姆金家族做家具的那套路数,一字不差地搬到了珠宝生意上。两家企业的基石,都是 B 夫人的信条:“卖得便宜,说真话。”两家共有的其他要诀是:其一,单店经营,坐拥海量库存,让顾客在各个价位段都有极其丰富的选择;其二,最高层管理者每日盯紧每一处细节;其三,周转飞快;其四,采购精明;其五,费用低得离谱。后三条叠加起来,让两家店都能天天开出全国无人能及的价格。

You won’t be surprised to learn that this family brings to the jewelry business precisely the same approach that the Blumkins bring to the furniture business. The cornerstone for both enterprises is Mrs. B’s creed: “Sell cheap and tell the truth.” Other fundamentals at both businesses are: (1) single store operations featuring huge inventories that provide customers with an enormous selection across all price ranges, (2) daily attention to detail by top management, (3) rapid turnover, (4) shrewd buying, and (5) incredibly low expenses. The combination of the last three factors lets both stores offer everyday prices that no one in the country comes close to matching.

多数人不管在别处多么见多识广,一到买珠宝就像误入丛林的雏鸟。质量看不懂,价格也拿不准。对他们而言,只有一条规矩管用:不懂珠宝,就得懂珠宝商。

Most people, no matter how sophisticated they are in other matters, feel like babes in the woods when purchasing jewelry. They can judge neither quality nor price. For them only one rule makes sense: If you don’t know jewelry, know the jeweler.

我可以向你保证,把信任交给艾克·弗里德曼一家的人,绝不会失望。我们收购他们业务权益的方式,就是最有力的佐证。博尔斯海姆珠宝连一份经审计的财务报表都没有;即便如此,我们既没盘点存货,也没核对应收账款,更没做任何形式的审计。艾克只是把实情如实相告——就凭这个,我们拟了一页纸的合同,开出一张大额支票。

I can assure you that those who put their trust in Ike Friedman and his family will never be disappointed. The way in which we purchased our interest in their business is the ultimate testimonial. Borsheim’s had no audited financial statements; nevertheless, we didn’t take inventory, verify receivables or audit the operation in any way. Ike simply told us what was so - - and on that basis we drew up a one-page contract and wrote a large check.

近些年,随着弗里德曼一家声名远播,博尔斯海姆珠宝的生意迅猛增长。如今,顾客从全国各地慕名而来。其中不乏我在东西两岸的朋友,他们事后都感谢我把他们引到了那里。

Business at Borsheim’s has mushroomed in recent years as the reputation of the Friedman family has spread. Customers now come to the store from all over the country. Among them have been some friends of mine from both coasts who thanked me later for getting them there.

博尔斯海姆珠宝与伯克希尔新结的这层关系,丝毫不会改变它的经营方式。弗里德曼家族的每一位成员都会一如既往地打理生意;查理和我则安守本分,站在场边袖手旁观。而我们说“每一位成员”,字字当真。弗里德曼老先生和老夫人,分别高龄 88 岁和 87 岁,天天还在店里;艾克、艾伦、马文和唐纳德的太太们,一到忙时便一齐上阵;第四代人也开始上手学门道了。

Borsheim’s new links to Berkshire will change nothing in the way this business is run. All members of the Friedman family will continue to operate just as they have before; Charlie and I will stay on the sidelines where we belong. And when we say “all members,” the words have real meaning. Mr. and Mrs. Friedman, at 88 and 87, respectively, are in the store daily. The wives of Ike, Alan, Marvin and Donald all pitch in at busy times, and a fourth generation is beginning to learn the ropes.

能同自己仰慕已久的人一道做生意,实在是件乐事。弗里德曼家族和布拉姆金家族一样,之所以功成名就,是因为他们本就配得上这份成功。两家人都一门心思为顾客着想,而这,最终也必然回报到他们自己身上。我们再找不到比他们更好的合伙人了。

It is great fun to be in business with people you have long admired. The Friedmans, like the Blumkins, have achieved success because they have deserved success. Both families focus on what’s right for the customer and that, inevitably, works out well for them, also. We couldn’t have better partners.

保险业务

Insurance Operations

下面是我们惯用的那张保险业关键数据表的最新版本:

Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the insurance industry:

年度保费变化 (%)法定综合成本率(已支付保单分红后)已发生损失年变化 (%)通货膨胀率(按 GNP 平减指数衡量)(%)
19813.8106.06.59.6
19823.7109.68.46.4
19835.0112.06.83.8
19848.5118.016.93.7
198522.1116.316.13.2
198622.2108.013.52.7
19879.4104.67.83.3
1988(估计)3.9105.44.23.6
                              Statutory
          Yearly Change    Combined Ratio    Yearly Change   Inflation Rate 
           in Premiums   After Policyholder   in Incurred     Measured by 
           Written (%)        Dividends        Losses (%)   GNP Deflator (%)
          -------------  ------------------  -------------  ----------------
1981 .....     3.8              106.0             6.5              9.6
1982 .....     3.7              109.6             8.4              6.4
1983 .....     5.0              112.0             6.8              3.8
1984 .....     8.5              118.0            16.9              3.7
1985 .....    22.1              116.3            16.1              3.2
1986 .....    22.2              108.0            13.5              2.7
1987 .....     9.4              104.6             7.8              3.3
1988 (Est.)    3.9              105.4             4.2              3.6

来源:A.M. Best 公司

Source: A.M. Best Co.

综合成本率,指保险总成本(已发生损失加各项费用)与保费收入之比:比率低于 100,表示承保有利润;高于 100,则表示亏损。若把保险公司靠占用投保人资金(即“浮存金”)所赚的投资收益一并计入,那么综合成本率落在 107 到 111 这一区间,通常意味着整体盈亏打平——这还不算股东自有资金带来的收益。

The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders’ funds (“the float”) is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-111 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.

出于以往年报中阐明过的理由,我们预计全行业的已发生损失将以每年约 10% 的速度增长,即便在整体通胀低得多的年份也是如此。若同期保费增速大幅落后于这 10%,承保亏损便会越滚越大——只不过每逢生意转坏,行业惯于少提准备金,可能会一时掩住亏损的真实规模。正如表中所示,全行业的承保亏损 1988 年有所扩大。这个趋势几乎必定会延续,很可能还会加速,至少再持续两年。

For the reasons laid out in previous reports, we expect the industry’s incurred losses to grow by about 10% annually, even in years when general inflation runs considerably lower. If premium growth meanwhile materially lags that 10% rate, underwriting losses will mount, though the industry’s tendency to underreserve when business turns bad may obscure their size for a time. As the table shows, the industry’s underwriting loss grew in 1988. This trend is almost certain to continue - and probably will accelerate - for at least two more years.

财产意外险行业不光利润低于常态,人缘也低于常态。(正如萨姆·戈德温的“哲思”:“人这一辈子,得学会连苦带酸一并咽下。”)商业世界的一大讽刺是:不少定价不足、利润本就微薄的行业,动辄被怒气冲冲的客户数落;而另一些利润高得吓人的行业,无论价开得多高,却安然无恙、鲜有怨言。

The property-casualty insurance industry is not only subnormally profitable, it is subnormally popular. (As Sam Goldwyn philosophized: “In life, one must learn to take the bitter with the sour.”) One of the ironies of business is that many relatively-unprofitable industries that are plagued by inadequate prices habitually find themselves beat upon by irate customers even while other, hugely profitable industries are spared complaints, no matter how high their prices.

拿早餐麦片行业来说,它的投入资本回报率比汽车保险高出一倍不止(这正是为什么凯洛格、通用磨坊这类公司股价能到账面价值的五倍,而多数大型保险公司股价只在账面价值上下)。麦片公司隔三差五就提价,其中因成本大涨而提的没几笔。可消费者连一声都不吭。反观汽车保险公司,涨价幅度连成本涨幅都追不上,客户却已怒不可遏。你要是想讨人喜欢,那卖高价玉米片显然强过卖低价车险。

Take the breakfast cereal industry, whose return on invested capital is more than double that of the auto insurance industry (which is why companies like Kellogg and General Mills sell at five times book value and most large insurers sell close to book). The cereal companies regularly impose price increases, few of them related to a significant jump in their costs. Yet not a peep is heard from consumers. But when auto insurers raise prices by amounts that do not even match cost increases, customers are outraged. If you want to be loved, it’s clearly better to sell high-priced corn flakes than low-priced auto insurance.

公众对这个行业的敌意,后果可能相当严重:去年秋天加州通过的 103 号提案,扬言要把车险价格大幅压低,全然不顾成本一路飙升。眼下降价因法院审查提案而暂缓,可催生这场投票的民怨并未暂缓:哪怕提案最终被推翻,保险公司想在加州赚钱经营,恐怕也难上加难。(谢天谢地,老百姓没跟夹心糖过不去:假如 103 号提案连糖果一起管,喜诗就得把每磅售价从我们如今收的 7.60 美元砍到 5.76 美元——那还不亏得一塌糊涂。)

The antagonism that the public feels toward the industry can have serious consequences: Proposition 103, a California initiative passed last fall, threatens to push auto insurance prices down sharply, even though costs have been soaring. The price cut has been suspended while the courts review the initiative, but the resentment that brought on the vote has not been suspended: Even if the initiative is overturned, insurers are likely to find it tough to operate profitably in California. (Thank heavens the citizenry isn’t mad at bonbons: If Proposition 103 applied to candy as well as insurance, See’s would be forced to sell its product for $5.76 per pound. rather than the $7.60 we charge - and would be losing money by the bucketful.)

这项提案对伯克希尔的直接近期冲击不大,因为投票之前加州的费率结构里,我们本就没看到多少赚头。然而,硬压价格会重创 GEICO——我们持股 44% 的被投资公司,它约一成保费收入来自加州。对 GEICO 威胁更大的,是其他州也可能通过提案或立法,如法炮制这类压价举动。

The immediate direct effects on Berkshire from the initiative are minor, since we saw few opportunities for profit in the rate structure that existed in California prior to the vote. However, the forcing down of prices would seriously affect GEICO, our 44%-owned investee, which gets about 10% of its premium volume from California. Even more threatening to GEICO is the possibility that similar pricing actions will be taken in other states, through either initiatives or legislation.

倘若选民非要车险定价低于成本,那这门生意最终只能由政府来做。股东能补贴投保人一阵子,可长期贴钱的只能是纳税人。对大多数财产意外险公司而言,车险“国有化”对股东算不上灾难:因这行商品化程度高,多数保险公司回报平平,一旦被政府赶出车险市场,几乎没有什么经济商誉可损失。可 GEICO 是低成本经营者,能在股本上挣得高回报,手里握着巨额经济商誉,一旦有失,损失惨重。连带地,我们也一样。

If voters insist that auto insurance be priced below cost, it eventually must be sold by government. Stockholders can subsidize policyholders for a short period, but only taxpayers can subsidize them over the long term. At most property-casualty companies, socialized auto insurance would be no disaster for shareholders. Because of the commodity characteristics of the industry, most insurers earn mediocre returns and therefore have little or no economic goodwill to lose if they are forced by government to leave the auto insurance business. But GEICO, because it is a low-cost producer able to earn high returns on equity, has a huge amount of economic goodwill at risk. In turn, so do we.

伯克希尔这边,1988 年保费收入继续下滑;到 1989 年,还会因一个特殊缘由大幅缩水:我们承接消防员基金保险公司 7% 业务份额的那份合同,将于 8 月 31 日到期。届时,我们会把手里与该合同相关的未到期保费退还给消防员基金。这笔资金回流会在我们的“已签保费”账上记成约负 8,500 万美元,让第三季度的数字看起来颇为古怪。不过,这份合同的终止不会对利润造成实质影响。

At Berkshire, in 1988, our premium volume continued to fall, and in 1989 we will experience a large decrease for a special reason: The contract through which we receive 7% of the business of Fireman’s Fund expires on August 31. At that time, we will return to Fireman’s Fund the unearned premiums we hold that relate to the contract. This transfer of funds will show up in our “premiums written” account as a negative $85 million or so and will make our third-quarter figures look rather peculiar. However, the termination of this contract will not have a significant effect on profits.

伯克希尔 1988 年的承保成绩依旧出色。我们的综合成本率(按法定口径,且不含结构化理赔和财务再保险)为 104。在此前一连串很不理想的年份之后,准备金的后续发展已连续第二年向好。承保与准备金发展的详情,见第 36 至 38 页。

Berkshire’s underwriting results continued to be excellent in 1988. Our combined ratio (on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance) was 104. Reserve development was favorable for the second year in a row, after a string of years in which it was very unsatisfactory. Details on both underwriting and reserve development appear on pages 36-38.

未来几年,我们的保险业务量很可能一直很低,因为有合理盈利希望的生意几乎注定稀缺。那就随它去吧。在伯克希尔,我们绝不会按明摆着要亏钱的费率去承保。就算我们预期能赚,麻烦都已经够多了。

Our insurance volume over the next few years is likely to run very low, since business with a reasonable potential for profit will almost certainly be scarce. So be it. At Berkshire, we simply will not write policies at rates that carry the expectation of economic loss. We encounter enough troubles when we expect a gain.

尽管业务量低——或许正因为业务量低——未来几年我们的盈利前景很可能比全行业亮眼得多。相对于保费规模,我们手里的浮存金必然格外充裕,这对利润是个好兆头。1989 年和 1990 年,我们预计自己的浮存金对保费之比,至少能达到寻常财产意外险公司的三倍。在阿吉特·贾恩、迪诺斯·伊奥丹努和国民赔偿公司管理团队的鼎力相助下,迈克·戈德堡已在这一点上为我们布好了局。

Despite - or perhaps because of - low volume, our profit picture during the next few years is apt to be considerably brighter than the industry’s. We are sure to have an exceptional amount of float compared to premium volume, and that augurs well for profits. In 1989 and 1990 we expect our float/premiums ratio to be at least three times that of the typical property/casualty company. Mike Goldberg, with special help from Ajit Jain, Dinos Iordanou, and the National Indemnity managerial team, has positioned us well in that respect.

到某个时点——具体何时我们说不准——保险业务会像潮水般涌向我们。诱因也许是一场重大的天灾或金融浩劫。但也可能重演 1985 年的情景:别的公司承保亏损又大又快地攀升,同时又意识到自己的准备金严重不足,于是生意猛地涌来。在此之前,我们会留住手下才华横溢的专才,护住我们的资本,尽量不犯大错。

At some point - we don’t know when - we will be deluged with insurance business. The cause will probably be some major physical or financial catastrophe. But we could also experience an explosion in business, as we did in 1985, because large and increasing underwriting losses at other companies coincide with their recognition that they are far underreserved. in the meantime, we will retain our talented professionals, protect our capital, and try not to make major mistakes.

有价证券

Marketable Securities

为保险公司挑选有价证券时,我们可以在五大类里选:其一,长期普通股投资;其二,中期固定收益证券;其三,长期固定收益证券;其四,短期现金等价物;其五,短期套利头寸。

In selecting marketable securities for our insurance companies, we can choose among five major categories: (1) long- term common stock investments, (2) medium-term fixed-income securities, (3) long-term fixed-income securities, (4) short-term cash equivalents, and (5) short-term arbitrage commitments.

在这几类之间取舍,我们没有特别的偏好。我们只是不停地在其中搜寻——按数学期望衡量、税后回报最高的那一个,并且始终把自己限定在我们自认能看懂的投资标的之内。我们的取舍标准,与眼下能报出多少盈利毫不相干;我们的目标,是把最终的净资产做到最大。

We have no particular bias when it comes to choosing from these categories. We just continuously search among them for the highest after-tax returns as measured by “mathematical expectation,” limiting ourselves always to investment alternatives we think we understand. Our criteria have nothing to do with maximizing immediately reportable earnings; our goal, rather, is to maximize eventual net worth.

○ 下面列出我们市值超过 1 亿美元的普通股持仓,不含后文将要讨论的套利头寸。其中一小部分投资,归属于伯克希尔持股不足 100% 的子公司。

o Below we list our common stock holdings having a value over $100 million, not including arbitrage commitments, which will be discussed later. A small portion of these investments belongs to subsidiaries of which Berkshire owns less than 100%.

股票数量公司名称成本(千美元)市值(千美元)
3,000,000大都会/美国广播公司517,5001,086,750
14,172,500可口可乐公司592,540632,448
2,400,000联邦住宅贷款抵押公司优先股*71,729121,200
6,850,000GEICO 公司45,713849,400
1,727,765《华盛顿邮报》公司9,731364,126
   Shares   Company                                    Cost       Market
   ------   -------                                 ----------  ----------
                                                        (000s omitted) 
 3,000,000  Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. ..............  $517,500   $1,086,750
14,172,500  The Coca-Cola Company .................   592,540      632,448
 2,400,000  Federal Home Loan Mortgage 
               Corporation Preferred* .............    71,729      121,200
 6,850,000  GEICO Corporation .....................    45,713      849,400
 1,727,765  The Washington Post Company ...........     9,731      364,126
  • 虽名义上是优先股,但这种证券在财务性质上等同于普通股。

*Although nominally a preferred stock, this security is financially equivalent to a common stock.

我们的永久持股——大都会/美国广播公司、GEICO 公司和《华盛顿邮报》公司——一如既往,未作变动。我们对它们管理层毫无保留的钦佩,也一如既往:大都会的汤姆·墨菲和丹·伯克,GEICO 的比尔·斯奈德和卢·辛普森,《华盛顿邮报》的凯·格雷厄姆和迪克·西蒙斯。这些经理人为各自企业带来的才干与正直,查理和我推崇备至。

Our permanent holdings - Capital Cities/ABC, Inc., GEICO Corporation, and The Washington Post Company - remain unchanged. Also unchanged is our unqualified admiration of their managements: Tom Murphy and Dan Burke at Cap Cities, Bill Snyder and Lou Simpson at GEICO, and Kay Graham and Dick Simmons at The Washington Post. Charlie and I appreciate enormously the talent and integrity these managers bring to their businesses.

他们的表现,我们是近距离看在眼里的;这与许多首席执行官形成了刺眼的对比——所幸后者我们只是隔着安全距离旁观。这些首席执行官里,有些明摆着不该坐在那个位子上;可他们的位子往往稳如泰山。企业管理里最大的讽刺莫过于此:一个不称职的首席执行官保住饭碗,反倒比一个不称职的下属容易得多。

Their performance, which we have observed at close range, contrasts vividly with that of many CEOs, which we have fortunately observed from a safe distance. Sometimes these CEOs clearly do not belong in their jobs; their positions, nevertheless, are usually secure. The supreme irony of business management is that it is far easier for an inadequate CEO to keep his job than it is for an inadequate subordinate.

打个比方,一名秘书应聘的岗位要求每分钟至少打 80 个字,结果她只能打 50 个字,那她转眼就得走人。这份工作有明摆着的标准,成绩一目了然;达不到线,就出局。同样,新招的销售若不能尽快拉来足够多的生意,也会被请走。借口顶不了订单。

If a secretary, say, is hired for a job that requires typing ability of at least 80 words a minute and turns out to be capable of only 50 words a minute, she will lose her job in no time. There is a logical standard for this job; performance is easily measured; and if you can’t make the grade, you’re out. Similarly, if new sales people fail to generate sufficient business quickly enough, they will be let go. Excuses will not be accepted as a substitute for orders.

可一个不出活的首席执行官,却常常被无限期地留着。原因之一是,衡量他这份工作的绩效标准往往根本不存在。就算有,也多半含混不清,或者一遇业绩严重、反复不达标,便被搁置或找借口开脱。在太多公司里,老板先把管理绩效这支箭射出去,再手忙脚乱地在箭落之处画个靶心。

However, a CEO who doesn’t perform is frequently carried indefinitely. One reason is that performance standards for his job seldom exist. When they do, they are often fuzzy or they may be waived or explained away, even when the performance shortfalls are major and repeated. At too many companies, the boss shoots the arrow of managerial performance and then hastily paints the bullseye around the spot where it lands.

老板与小兵之间,还有一处重要却少有人留意的区别:首席执行官头顶没有一个自身也在被考核的顶头上司。销售经理若在队伍里留一堆歪瓜裂枣,很快就轮到自己吃不了兜着走。及早剔除用人失误,直接关乎他的切身利益;否则,被剔除的就是他自己。招进无能秘书的办公室主任,也面临同样的紧箍咒。

Another important, but seldom recognized, distinction between the boss and the foot soldier is that the CEO has no immediate superior whose performance is itself getting measured. The sales manager who retains a bunch of lemons in his sales force will soon be in hot water himself. It is in his immediate self-interest to promptly weed out his hiring mistakes. Otherwise, he himself may be weeded out. An office manager who has hired inept secretaries faces the same imperative.

可首席执行官的“老板”是董事会,而董事会极少考核自己,也极少为公司业绩欠佳而担责。董事会用人一旦看走了眼,还将错就错,那又如何?就算公司因此被人收购,这笔交易多半还会给即将卸任的董事们带来一笔可观的好处。(个头越大,摔下来反倒越软。)

But the CEO’s boss is a Board of Directors that seldom measures itself and is infrequently held to account for substandard corporate performance. If the Board makes a mistake in hiring, and perpetuates that mistake, so what? Even if the company is taken over because of the mistake, the deal will probably bestow substantial benefits on the outgoing Board members. (The bigger they are, the softer they fall.)

再者,董事会与首席执行官之间,本就被期望相处融洽。在董事会上,批评首席执行官的表现,社交意义上无异于当众打嗝。可办公室主任要点评一名不合格的打字员,却半点这样的顾忌都没有。

Finally, relations between the Board and the CEO are expected to be congenial. At board meetings, criticism of the CEO’s performance is often viewed as the social equivalent of belching. No such inhibitions restrain the office manager from critically evaluating the substandard typist.

这些话不该被理解成对首席执行官或董事会的一概而论:他们中大多数既能干又勤勉,还有不少称得上出类拔萃。可查理和我见过的那些管理败笔,让我们分外庆幸自己能与三家永久持股公司的掌门人为伍。他们热爱自己的生意,像所有者一样思考,浑身透着正直与才干。

These points should not be interpreted as a blanket condemnation of CEOs or Boards of Directors: Most are able and hard-working, and a number are truly outstanding. But the management failings that Charlie and I have seen make us thankful that we are linked with the managers of our three permanent holdings. They love their businesses, they think like owners, and they exude integrity and ability.

1988 年,我们大手笔买入了联邦住宅贷款抵押公司(“房地美”)优先股和可口可乐,打算长期持有。事实上,当我们持有优秀企业的一部分、且这些企业由优秀管理层经营时,我们最中意的持有期是“永远”。有些人一见公司表现好就急着卖出、落袋为安,一遇公司令人失望反倒死攥不放——我们正好相反。彼得·林奇有个贴切的比喻,说这种行为好比“剪掉鲜花、给野草浇水”。我们持有的房地美股份已达法律允许的上限,查理在他的信中有详尽说明。在我们的合并资产负债表上,这些股份按成本而非市价列示,因为它们由非保险子公司——互惠储蓄贷款公司持有。

o In 1988 we made major purchases of Federal Home Loan Mortgage Pfd. (“Freddie Mac”) and Coca Cola. We expect to hold these securities for a long time. In fact, when we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever. We are just the opposite of those who hurry to sell and book profits when companies perform well but who tenaciously hang on to businesses that disappoint. Peter Lynch aptly likens such behavior to cutting the flowers and watering the weeds. Our holdings of Freddie Mac are the maximum allowed by law, and are extensively described by Charlie in his letter. In our consolidated balance sheet these shares are carried at cost rather than market, since they are owned by Mutual Savings and Loan, a non-insurance subsidiary.

我们始终坚持把投资集中在极少数我们力求真正理解的公司上。能让我们抱有强烈长期信念的公司,只有屈指可数的几家。因此,一旦找到这样一家公司,我们就希望以有分量的方式参与其中。我们赞同梅·韦斯特那句话:“好东西再多也不嫌过。”

We continue to concentrate our investments in a very few companies that we try to understand well. There are only a handful of businesses about which we have strong long-term convictions. Therefore, when we find such a business, we want to participate in a meaningful way. We agree with Mae West: “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.”

去年,我们把中期免税债券的持仓减掉了约 1 亿美元。卖出的所有债券,都是 1986 年 8 月 7 日之后买入的。这类债券若由财产意外险公司持有,所赚取的“免税”利息中,有 15% 仍需纳税。

o We reduced our holdings of medium-term tax-exempt bonds by about $100 million last year. All of the bonds sold were acquired after August 7, 1986. When such bonds are held by property-casualty insurance companies, 15% of the “tax-exempt” interest earned is subject to tax.

我们仍持有的 8 亿美元头寸,几乎全部是受 1986 年《税制改革法案》“既往不咎”条款保护的债券,也就是说,它们是完全免税的。这次卖出略有薄利,而我们剩下的债券,平均剩余期限约六年,市值略高于账面价值。

The $800 million position we still hold consists almost entirely of bonds “grandfathered” under the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which means they are entirely tax-exempt. Our sales produced a small profit and our remaining bonds, which have an average maturity of about six years, are worth modestly more than carrying value.

去年,我们曾提到过手中持有当时已进入破产程序的德士古公司的短期和中期债券。1988 年,我们把这些债券几乎悉数卖出,税前获利约 2,200 万美元。这笔出售,解释了我们资产负债表上固定收益证券减少的近 1 亿美元中的一大部分。

Last year we described our holdings of short-term and intermediate-term bonds of Texaco, which was then in bankruptcy. During 1988, we sold practically all of these bonds at a pre-tax profit of about $22 million. This sale explains close to $100 million of the reduction in fixed-income securities on our balance sheet.

去年我们还提到过另一笔持仓,其主要特征更像一只中期固定收益品种:我们持有的 7 亿美元所罗门公司 9% 可转换优先股。这批优先股设有偿债基金,将在 1995 至 1999 年间逐年等额赎回。伯克希尔按成本列示这笔持仓。出于查理在第 69 页所述的原因,我们这笔持仓的估计市值,已从去年底的略低于成本,回升到 1988 年底的略高于成本。

We also told you last year about our holdings of another security whose predominant characteristics are those of an intermediate fixed-income issue: our $700 million position in Salomon Inc 9% convertible preferred. This preferred has a sinking fund that will retire it in equal annual installments from 1995 to 1999. Berkshire carries this holding at cost. For reasons discussed by Charlie on page 69, the estimated market value of our holding has improved from moderately under cost at the end of last year to moderately over cost at 1988 year end.

过去一年里与所罗门首席执行官约翰·古特弗罗因德的密切往来,让我们对他更添敬意。但对于投资银行这门生意的近期、中期乃至长期经济前景,我们依然谈不上有什么深刻的洞见:这个行业未来的盈利水平本就不容易预测。我们仍然相信,在这批优先股的存续期内,我们手中的转股权很可能具有重要价值。不过,这批优先股的价值,绝大部分来自它的固定收益属性,而非股权属性。

The close association we have had with John Gutfreund, CEO of Salomon, during the past year has reinforced our admiration for him. But we continue to have no great insights about the near, intermediate or long-term economics of the investment banking business: This is not an industry in which it is easy to forecast future levels of profitability. We continue to believe that our conversion privilege could well have important value over the life of our preferred. However, the overwhelming portion of the preferred’s value resides in its fixed-income characteristics, not its equity characteristics.

我们对长期债券的反感并没有减少。只有当我们对货币购买力长期稳定重燃信心时,我们才会对这类证券产生热情。而那样的稳定在可预见的未来不可能出现:社会与民选官员都有太多优先级更高、且与购买力稳定相冲突的目标。我们唯一持有的长期债券,是华盛顿公共电力供应系统(WPPSS)的债券。其中一小部分剩余期限很短,另有许多因票息较高,很可能在几年内被提前赎回并清偿。总体而言,我们持有的 WPPSS 债券在资产负债表上按 2.47 亿美元列账,市值约 3.52 亿美元。

o We have not lost our aversion to long-term bonds. We will become enthused about such securities only when we become enthused about prospects for long-term stability in the purchasing power of money. And that kind of stability isn’t in the cards: Both society and elected officials simply have too many higher-ranking priorities that conflict with purchasing- power stability. The only long-term bonds we hold are those of Washington Public Power Supply Systems (WPPSS). A few of our WPPSS bonds have short maturities and many others, because of their high coupons, are likely to be refunded and paid off in a few years. Overall, our WPPSS holdings are carried on our balance sheet at $247 million and have a market value of about $352 million.

买入 WPPSS 债券的原因,我们已在 1983 年年报中解释过;现在很高兴地告诉你们,这笔投资的结果大体如我们所料。买入之时,我们持有的债券多数税后收益率约 17%,且没有评级(评级当时已被暂停)。最近,这些债券已被标准普尔评为 AA- 级,目前的售价仅略低于顶级信用债券的水平。

We explained the reasons for our WPPSS purchases in the 1983 annual report, and are pleased to tell you that this commitment has worked out about as expected. At the time of purchase, most of our bonds were yielding around 17% after taxes and carried no ratings, which had been suspended. Recently, the bonds were rated AA- by Standard & Poor’s. They now sell at levels only slightly below those enjoyed by top-grade credits.

在 1983 年那份年报里,我们曾把买入 WPPSS 债券的经济账,与收购一家企业的经济账进行比较。事实证明,若都以截至 1988 年、不加杠杆的税后回报来衡量,这笔投资的收益,实际上还胜过 1983 年一般的企业收购。

In the 1983 report, we compared the economics of our WPPSS purchase to those involved in buying a business. As it turned out, this purchase actually worked out better than did the general run of business acquisitions made in 1983, assuming both are measured on the basis of unleveraged, after tax returns achieved through 1988.

WPPSS 这段经历虽然愉快,却丝毫没有改变我们对长期债券的负面看法。它只是让我们希望,能再遇到另一笔大规模、被污名化的债券——其麻烦缠身,导致市场对它的定价出现严重偏差。

Our WPPSS experience, though pleasant, does nothing to alter our negative opinion about long-term bonds. It only makes us hope that we run into some other large stigmatized issue, whose troubles have caused it to be significantly misappraised by the market.

套利

Arbitrage

在以往的年报里,我们告诉过你们,我们的保险子公司有时会参与套利,作为持有短期现金等价物的替代选择。当然,我们更愿意做重大的长期投资,可我们手里的现金常常多于好点子。碰上这种时候,套利有时能带来比国库券高得多的回报;同样重要的是,它能压制住我们可能想要放松长期投资标准的任何念头。(每回我们谈完一笔套利,查理收尾的话通常是:“行吧,至少这能让你别往酒吧里钻。”)

In past reports we have told you that our insurance subsidiaries sometimes engage in arbitrage as an alternative to holding short-term cash equivalents. We prefer, of course, to make major long-term commitments, but we often have more cash than good ideas. At such times, arbitrage sometimes promises much greater returns than Treasury Bills and, equally important, cools any temptation we may have to relax our standards for long- term investments. (Charlie’s sign off after we’ve talked about an arbitrage commitment is usually: “Okay, at least it will keep you out of bars.”)

1988 年,我们从套利中赚得了异乎寻常的丰厚利润,无论按绝对金额还是按回报率衡量都是如此。我们的税前收益约为 7,800 万美元,平均投入资金约 1.47 亿美元。

During 1988 we made unusually large profits from arbitrage, measured both by absolute dollars and rate of return. Our pre- tax gain was about $78 million on average invested funds of about $147 million.

这样的活跃程度,值得我们对套利、连同我们做套利的思路细加讨论。“套利”一词,起初仅指在两个不同市场同时买入和卖出同一证券或外汇。其目的是利用可能存在的微小价差,比方说,荷兰皇家石油的股票在阿姆斯特丹以荷兰盾交易、在伦敦以英镑交易、在纽约以美元交易。有人也许会管这叫“抢帽子”;而从业者偏偏选用了法语词“arbitrage”(套利),你对此不会觉得意外。

This level of activity makes some detailed discussion of arbitrage and our approach to it appropriate. Once, the word applied only to the simultaneous purchase and sale of securities or foreign exchange in two different markets. The goal was to exploit tiny price differentials that might exist between, say, Royal Dutch stock trading in guilders in Amsterdam, pounds in London, and dollars in New York. Some people might call this scalping; it won’t surprise you that practitioners opted for the French term, arbitrage.

自第一次世界大战以来,套利——如今有时也叫“风险套利”——的定义,已扩展到包括从已宣布的公司事件中寻求利润,例如公司出售、合并、资本重组、重整、清算、要约回购等等。在多数情况下,套利者指望无论股市如何波动都能获利。他通常要面对的主要风险,反倒是那件已宣布的事件最终未能发生。

Since World War I the definition of arbitrage - or “risk arbitrage,” as it is now sometimes called - has expanded to include the pursuit of profits from an announced corporate event such as sale of the company, merger, recapitalization, reorganization, liquidation, self-tender, etc. In most cases the arbitrageur expects to profit regardless of the behavior of the stock market. The major risk he usually faces instead is that the announced event won’t happen.

套利领域偶尔会出现一些不落俗套的机会。我 24 岁在纽约为格雷厄姆-纽曼公司(Graham-Newman Corp.)工作时,就参与了其中一例。罗克伍德公司(Rockwood & Co.)是一家总部位于布鲁克林的巧克力制品公司,利润微薄,在 1941 年可可豆每磅卖 5 美分时,便采用了后进先出(LIFO)存货计价法。1954 年,可可豆暂时短缺,导致价格飙升至每磅 60 美分以上。因此,罗克伍德希望赶在价格下跌之前,迅速将这批值钱的存货脱手。然而,若直接卖掉可可豆,公司需为收益缴纳近 50% 的税。

Some offbeat opportunities occasionally arise in the arbitrage field. I participated in one of these when I was 24 and working in New York for Graham-Newman Corp. Rockwood & Co., a Brooklyn based chocolate products company of limited profitability, had adopted LIFO inventory valuation in 1941 when cocoa was selling for 5¢ per pound. In 1954 a temporary shortage of cocoa caused the price to soar to over 60&cent. Consequently Rockwood wished to unload its valuable inventory - quickly, before the price dropped. But if the cocoa had simply been sold off, the company would have owed close to a 50% tax on the proceeds.

1954 年的税法解了围。其中包含一条冷僻条款:若将存货作为缩减公司业务范围计划的一部分分配给股东,则原本对后进先出利润应征的税款可予以免除。罗克伍德决定终止其一项业务,即可可脂的销售,并称其 1,300 万磅可可豆存货归属于该业务。相应地,公司提出用其不再需要的可可豆回购自家股票,每股支付 80 磅可可豆。

The 1954 Tax Code came to the rescue. It contained an arcane provision that eliminated the tax otherwise due on LIFO profits if inventory was distributed to shareholders as part of a plan reducing the scope of a corporation’s business. Rockwood decided to terminate one of its businesses, the sale of cocoa butter, and said 13 million pounds of its cocoa bean inventory was attributable to that activity. Accordingly, the company offered to repurchase its stock in exchange for the cocoa beans it no longer needed, paying 80 pounds of beans for each share.

连续几周,我忙于买入股票、卖出可可豆,并定期前往施罗德信托公司(Schroeder Trust),用股票凭证换回仓库收据。利润相当不错,而我唯一的开销就是地铁代币。

For several weeks I busily bought shares, sold beans, and made periodic stops at Schroeder Trust to exchange stock certificates for warehouse receipts. The profits were good and my only expense was subway tokens.

罗克伍德这次重组的操盘手是一位当时默默无闻却才华横溢的芝加哥人,杰伊·普利兹克(Jay Pritzker),时年 32 岁。如果你熟悉杰伊日后的履历,那么听说这一操作对罗克伍德留下的股东也颇为有利,就不会感到意外了。从要约收购启动前不久到结束之后不久,尽管公司正经历巨额经营亏损,罗克伍德的股价仍从 15 美元飙升至 100 美元。有时,股票估值远不止看市盈率那么简单。

The architect of Rockwood’s restructuring was an unknown, but brilliant Chicagoan, Jay Pritzker, then 32. If you’re familiar with Jay’s subsequent record, you won’t be surprised to hear the action worked out rather well for Rockwood’s continuing shareholders also. From shortly before the tender until shortly after it, Rockwood stock appreciated from 15 to 100, even though the company was experiencing large operating losses. Sometimes there is more to stock valuation than price-earnings ratios.

近年来,大多数套利操作都围绕着并购展开,既有善意的,也有敌意的。在收购热潮席卷、反垄断挑战几乎绝迹、且出价经常节节攀升的环境下,套利者们获利极为丰厚。他们无需什么特殊才能就能做得很好;窍门就像电影中彼得·塞勒斯(Peter Sellers)那样,仅仅在于“身临其境”。在华尔街,那句老谚语被改成了:“授人以鱼,饱其一日;授人以套利,饱其一生。”(不过,如果他受教于伊万·博斯基(Ivan Boesky)的套利学校,那么为他提供一日三餐的可能就是州立机构了。)

In recent years, most arbitrage operations have involved takeovers, friendly and unfriendly. With acquisition fever rampant, with anti-trust challenges almost non-existent, and with bids often ratcheting upward, arbitrageurs have prospered mightily. They have not needed special talents to do well; the trick, a la Peter Sellers in the movie, has simply been “Being There.” In Wall Street the old proverb has been reworded: “Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to arbitrage and you feed him forever.” (If, however, he studied at the Ivan Boesky School of Arbitrage, it may be a state institution that supplies his meals.)

要评估套利情形,你必须回答四个问题:(1) 所承诺的事件确实会发生的可能性有多大?(2) 你的资金将被占用多久?(3) 出现更好结果——例如,出现竞购报价——的几率有多大?以及 (4) 若因反垄断行动、融资障碍等原因导致事件未能发生,会有什么后果?

To evaluate arbitrage situations you must answer four questions: (1) How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur? (2) How long will your money be tied up? (3) What chance is there that something still better will transpire - a competing takeover bid, for example? and (4) What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti-trust action, financing glitches, etc.?

阿卡塔公司(Arcata Corp.)是我们一次较为偶然的套利经历,展现了这门生意的曲折变化。1981 年 9 月 28 日,阿卡塔的董事们原则上同意将公司出售给科尔伯格-克拉维斯-罗伯茨公司(KKR,Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Co.),后者在当时和现在都是一家大型杠杆收购机构。阿卡塔从事印刷和森林产品业务,此外还有一项特殊资产:1978 年,美国政府为扩建红杉国家公园,征收了阿卡塔 10,700 英亩的林地,主要是原始红杉林。政府为这片林地分期支付了 9,790 万美元,阿卡塔认为这一金额严重不足,并就此提出异议。双方还就财产被征用至最终付款期间应适用的利率存在争议:授权立法规定为 6% 的单利;而阿卡塔主张以远高于此的复利计算。

Arcata Corp., one of our more serendipitous arbitrage experiences, illustrates the twists and turns of the business. On September 28, 1981 the directors of Arcata agreed in principle to sell the company to Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Co. (KKR), then and now a major leveraged-buy out firm. Arcata was in the printing and forest products businesses and had one other thing going for it: In 1978 the U.S. Government had taken title to 10,700 acres of Arcata timber, primarily old-growth redwood, to expand Redwood National Park. The government had paid $97.9 million, in several installments, for this acreage, a sum Arcata was contesting as grossly inadequate. The parties also disputed the interest rate that should apply to the period between the taking of the property and final payment for it. The enabling legislation stipulated 6% simple interest; Arcata argued for a much higher and compounded rate.

收购一家在诉讼中持有高度投机性巨额索赔的公司,无论该索赔是公司主张的,还是针对公司的,都会造成谈判难题。为解决这个难题,KKR 提出了每股 37.00 美元的报价,外加政府日后为红杉林地额外支付的任何款项的三分之二。

Buying a company with a highly-speculative, large-sized claim in litigation creates a negotiating problem, whether the claim is on behalf of or against the company. To solve this problem, KKR offered $37.00 per Arcata share plus two-thirds of any additional amounts paid by the government for the redwood lands.

在评估这桩套利机会时,我们不得不问自己,KKR 是否会完成这笔交易,因为其报价除其他条件外,还以获得“令人满意的融资”为前提。这类条款对卖方而言始终是危险的:它给那些在求婚与成婚之间热情减退的追求者提供了一条轻松的退路。但我们对此并不特别担忧,因为 KKR 过往完成交易的记录一向良好。

Appraising this arbitrage opportunity, we had to ask ourselves whether KKR would consummate the transaction since, among other things, its offer was contingent upon its obtaining “satisfactory financing.” A clause of this kind is always dangerous for the seller: It offers an easy exit for a suitor whose ardor fades between proposal and marriage. However, we were not particularly worried about this possibility because KKR’s past record for closing had been good.

我们还得问自己,如果 KKR 的交易果真落空会怎样,对此我们也相当安心:阿卡塔的管理层和董事们为出售公司已张罗了一段时间,去意已决。如果 KKR 退出,阿卡塔很可能会找到其他买家,不过价格当然可能会低一些。

We also had to ask ourselves what would happen if the KKR deal did fall through, and here we also felt reasonably comfortable: Arcata’s management and directors had been shopping the company for some time and were clearly determined to sell. If KKR went away, Arcata would likely find another buyer, though of course, the price might be lower.

最后,我们还得问自己,那笔红杉索赔可能价值几何。你们这位连榆树和橡树都分不清的董事长,对此倒是毫无困难:他冷静地评估该索赔的价值介于“零到一大笔”之间。

Finally, we had to ask ourselves what the redwood claim might be worth. Your Chairman, who can’t tell an elm from an oak, had no trouble with that one: He coolly evaluated the claim at somewhere between zero and a whole lot.

我们从 9 月 30 日开始买入阿卡塔股票,当时股价约 33.50 美元,在八周内购入了约 40 万股,占公司总股本的 5%。最初的公告称,每股 37.00 美元将在 1982 年 1 月支付。因此,如果一切进展完美,我们本应实现约 40% 的年化回报率——这还未计入红杉索赔,那部分本可算是锦上添花。

We started buying Arcata stock, then around $33.50, on September 30 and in eight weeks purchased about 400,000 shares, or 5% of the company. The initial announcement said that the $37.00 would be paid in January, 1982. Therefore, if everything had gone perfectly, we would have achieved an annual rate of return of about 40% - not counting the redwood claim, which would have been frosting.

并非一切都进展顺利。12 月,公告称交割将稍作延迟。尽管如此,一份最终协议于 1 月 4 日签署。受此鼓舞,我们增加了持仓,以约每股 38.00 美元的价格买入,将持股量提高至 65.5 万股,占公司总股本的 7% 以上。我们愿意以更高的价格买入——即使交割已被推迟——反映出我们对红杉林地索赔的倾向于“一大笔”而非“零”。

All did not go perfectly. In December it was announced that the closing would be delayed a bit. Nevertheless, a definitive agreement was signed on January 4. Encouraged, we raised our stake, buying at around $38.00 per share and increasing our holdings to 655,000 shares, or over 7% of the company. Our willingness to pay up - even though the closing had been postponed - reflected our leaning toward “a whole lot” rather than “zero” for the redwoods.

随后,在 2 月 25 日,贷款方表示,鉴于“住房行业严重萧条及其对阿卡塔前景的影响”,他们正在“重新审视”融资条款。股东大会再次被推迟至 4 月。一位阿卡塔发言人表示,他“不认为收购本身的命运已岌岌可危”。当套利者听到此类安抚言论时,他们脑海中会闪现一句老话:“他撒谎的样子,活像货币贬值前夕的财政部长。”

Then, on February 25 the lenders said they were taking a “second look” at financing terms “ in view of the severely depressed housing industry and its impact on Arcata’s outlook.” The stockholders’ meeting was postponed again, to April. An Arcata spokesman said he “did not think the fate of the acquisition itself was imperiled.” When arbitrageurs hear such reassurances, their minds flash to the old saying: “He lied like a finance minister on the eve of devaluation.”

3 月 12 日,KKR 表示其先前的交易方案行不通,首先将其报价降至每股 33.50 美元,两天后又提升至 35.00 美元。然而,在 3 月 15 日,董事们拒绝了这一报价,并接受了另一集团的出价:每股 37.50 美元,外加红杉林地追偿款的一半。股东们批准了这项交易,并于 6 月 4 日获得每股 37.50 美元的支付。

On March 12 KKR said its earlier deal wouldn’t work, first cutting its offer to $33.50, then two days later raising it to $35.00. On March 15, however, the directors turned this bid down and accepted another group’s offer of $37.50 plus one-half of any redwood recovery. The shareholders okayed the deal, and the $37.50 was paid on June 4.

我们收到 2,460 万美元,相比之下我们的成本是 2,290 万美元;我们的平均持有期接近六个月。考虑到这笔交易所遭遇的波折,我们 15% 的年化回报率——未计入红杉索赔的任何价值——已是相当令人满意了。

We received $24.6 million versus our cost of $22.9 million; our average holding period was close to six months. Considering the trouble this transaction encountered, our 15% annual rate of return excluding any value for the redwood claim - was more than satisfactory.

可最精彩的还在后头。初审法官指派了两个委员会,一个评估林木价值,一个厘清利率争议。1987 年 1 月,第一个委员会认定这批红杉林值 2.757 亿美元,第二个委员会建议采用一个混合的复利利率,折算下来约为 14%。

But the best was yet to come. The trial judge appointed two commissions, one to look at the timber’s value, the other to consider the interest rate questions. In January 1987, the first commission said the redwoods were worth $275.7 million and the second commission recommended a compounded, blended rate of return working out to about 14%.

1987 年 8 月,法官采纳了上述结论,这意味着阿卡塔应得净额约 6 亿美元。政府随即提起上诉。可到了 1988 年,上诉还没开审,这桩索赔便以 5.19 亿美元达成和解。于是,我们又拿到每股 29.48 美元,约合 1,930 万美元。1989 年,我们还将再收到约 80 万美元。

In August 1987 the judge upheld these conclusions, which meant a net amount of about $600 million would be due Arcata. The government then appealed. In 1988, though, before this appeal was heard, the claim was settled for $519 million. Consequently, we received an additional $29.48 per share, or about $19.3 million. We will get another $800,000 or so in 1989.

伯克希尔的套利做法,与许多套利者不同。其一,我们每年只参与寥寥几笔、且通常金额巨大的交易。多数同行则一年扑进一大堆——也许 50 笔甚至更多。手里的火烧得这么旺,他们大半时间都得盯着一桩桩交易的进展,还有相关股票的涨跌。查理和我可不愿这样打发这一生。(发了财却整日死盯着行情纸带看,那还有什么意思?)

Berkshire’s arbitrage activities differ from those of many arbitrageurs. First, we participate in only a few, and usually very large, transactions each year. Most practitioners buy into a great many deals perhaps 50 or more per year. With that many irons in the fire, they must spend most of their time monitoring both the progress of deals and the market movements of the related stocks. This is not how Charlie nor I wish to spend our lives. (What’s the sense in getting rich just to stare at a ticker tape all day?)

正因我们几乎不分散,一笔格外赚钱或格外赔钱的交易,对我们套利年度成绩的影响,会远远大过它对寻常套利者的影响。到目前为止,伯克希尔还没栽过大跟头。可总有栽的一天——到那时候,我们会把血淋淋的细节如实报给你们。

Because we diversify so little, one particularly profitable or unprofitable transaction will affect our yearly result from arbitrage far more than it will the typical arbitrage operation. So far, Berkshire has not had a really bad experience. But we will - and when it happens we’ll report the gory details to you.

我们与某些套利操作的另一处不同在于:我们只碰已经公开宣布的交易。我们不靠传言下注,也不去猜谁会成为收购目标。我们只是读读报纸,对几桩大交易琢磨一番,再凭自己对概率的判断行事。

The other way we differ from some arbitrage operations is that we participate only in transactions that have been publicly announced. We do not trade on rumors or try to guess takeover candidates. We just read the newspapers, think about a few of the big propositions, and go by our own sense of probabilities.

年底时,我们唯一的主要套利头寸,是 334.2 万股 RJR 纳贝斯克(RJR Nabisco),成本 2.818 亿美元,市值 3.045 亿美元。1 月,我们把持股加到约 400 万股;2 月,我们把仓清了。收购 RJR 的 KKR 发出要约收购时,我们递交的持股约有 300 万股被接纳,退回的股票随即在市场上卖掉。我们的税前利润为 6,400 万美元,好于预期。

At yearend, our only major arbitrage position was 3,342,000 shares of RJR Nabisco with a cost of $281.8 million and a market value of $304.5 million. In January we increased our holdings to roughly four million shares and in February we eliminated our position. About three million shares were accepted when we tendered our holdings to KKR, which acquired RJR, and the returned shares were promptly sold in the market. Our pre-tax profit was a better-than-expected $64 million.

早些时候,RJR 竞标战里又冒出一张熟面孔:杰伊·普利兹克。他是第一波士顿(First Boston)一个团队的成员,这个团队提出了一份着眼于税务安排的报价。套用尤吉·贝拉的话:“这简直是似曾相识,一切又重来了一遍。”

Earlier, another familiar face turned up in the RJR bidding contest: Jay Pritzker, who was part of a First Boston group that made a tax-oriented offer. To quote Yogi Berra; “It was deja vu all over again.”

在我们本该正常买入 RJR 的大部分时段里,我们对这只股票的操作却受了限制——因为所罗门也在其中一个竞标团队里。按惯例,查理和我虽是所罗门的董事,却被隔绝在它的并购业务信息之外。这是我们自己要求的:那些信息对我们毫无益处,事实上有时还会掣肘伯克希尔的套利操作。

During most of the time when we normally would have been purchasers of RJR, our activities in the stock were restricted because of Salomon’s participation in a bidding group. Customarily, Charlie and I, though we are directors of Salomon, are walled off from information about its merger and acquisition work. We have asked that it be that way: The information would do us no good and could, in fact, occasionally inhibit Berkshire’s arbitrage operations.

然而,所罗门打算在 RJR 这桩交易里投下的承诺异乎寻常地大,因而要求全体董事充分知情、深度参与。于是,伯克希尔买入 RJR 只集中在两个时段:其一,是管理层公布收购方案后的最初几天,那时所罗门尚未卷入;其二,是很久之后,RJR 董事会做出倾向 KKR 的决定之后。正因为其余时间我们无从买入,我们的董事身份让伯克希尔白白损失了一大笔钱。

However, the unusually large commitment that Salomon proposed to make in the RJR deal required that all directors be fully informed and involved. Therefore, Berkshire’s purchases of RJR were made at only two times: first, in the few days immediately following management’s announcement of buyout plans, before Salomon became involved; and considerably later, after the RJR board made its decision in favor of KKR. Because we could not buy at other times, our directorships cost Berkshire significant money.

看到伯克希尔 1988 年的好成绩,你也许以为我们 1989 年会一头扎进套利。但我们预计会站在场边观望。

Considering Berkshire’s good results in 1988, you might expect us to pile into arbitrage during 1989. Instead, we expect to be on the sidelines.

一个让人宽心的缘由是:我们的现金减少了——因为我们打算长期持有的股票头寸大幅增加了。这份年报的老读者都晓得,我们的新投资并非基于对股市短期走势的判断,而是反映我们对特定公司长期业务前景的看法。至于一年后股市、利率或经济活动会落在哪儿,我们没有观点,从来不曾有过,将来也不会有。

One pleasant reason is that our cash holdings are down - because our position in equities that we expect to hold for a very long time is substantially up. As regular readers of this report know, our new commitments are not based on a judgment about short-term prospects for the stock market. Rather, they reflect an opinion about long-term business prospects for specific companies. We do not have, never have had, and never will have an opinion about where the stock market, interest rates, or business activity will be a year from now.

即便手里现金充裕,1989 年我们大概也不会在套利上做太多。收购这个领域,已冒出一些非同寻常的过头之举。就像桃乐丝说的那样:“托托,我有种感觉,咱们已经不在堪萨斯了。”

Even if we had a lot of cash we probably would do little in arbitrage in 1989. Some extraordinary excesses have developed in the takeover field. As Dorothy says: “Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas any more.”

这些过头之举会持续多久,我们说不上来;是什么能扭转那些为它添柴的政府、贷款人和买家的心态,我们也说不上来。但我们确知一点:别人行事越是不知节制,我们自己行事就越该谨慎。那些映照出买家和贷款人无节制、在我们看来又常常毫无根据的乐观情绪的套利交易,我们无意沾手。行事之际,我们会谨记赫布·斯坦的箴言:“凡不可能永远持续下去的事,终有了结的一天。”

We have no idea how long the excesses will last, nor do we know what will change the attitudes of government, lender and buyer that fuel them. But we do know that the less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs. We have no desire to arbitrage transactions that reflect the unbridled - and, in our view, often unwarranted - optimism of both buyers and lenders. In our activities, we will heed the wisdom of Herb Stein: “If something can’t go on forever, it will end.”

有效市场理论

Efficient Market Theory

前面这番关于套利的讨论,倒也让顺带聊几句“有效市场理论”(EMT)显得应景。这套学说曾风靡一时——上世纪 70 年代,在学术圈里几乎被奉为圣经。它的要旨是:分析股票纯属白费力气,因为一切公开信息都已恰如其分地反映在价格里了。换句话说,市场无所不知。作为推论,讲授 EMT 的教授们宣称,往股票行情表上乱掷飞镖挑出的组合,其前景丝毫不逊于最聪明、最勤勉的证券分析师精挑细选出来的组合。令人称奇的是,接过 EMT 的不只学者,还有许多投资界的专业人士和公司高管。他们“市场经常有效”这一观察本没有错,却顺势推出了“市场永远有效”这一错误结论。这两个命题之间的差别,简直有天壤之别。

The preceding discussion about arbitrage makes a small discussion of “efficient market theory” (EMT) also seem relevant. This doctrine became highly fashionable - indeed, almost holy scripture in academic circles during the 1970s. Essentially, it said that analyzing stocks was useless because all public information about them was appropriately reflected in their prices. In other words, the market always knew everything. As a corollary, the professors who taught EMT said that someone throwing darts at the stock tables could select a stock portfolio having prospects just as good as one selected by the brightest, most hard-working security analyst. Amazingly, EMT was embraced not only by academics, but by many investment professionals and corporate managers as well. Observing correctly that the market was frequently efficient, they went on to conclude incorrectly that it was always efficient. The difference between these propositions is night and day.

在我看来,格雷厄姆-纽曼公司、巴菲特合伙企业和伯克希尔连续 63 年的套利经历,把 EMT 的荒唐照得一清二楚。(另外还有大把佐证。)在格雷厄姆-纽曼时,我把这家公司 1926 至 1956 年整个存续期内的套利收益细细研究了一番,不加杠杆的年均回报为 20%。从 1956 年起,我把本·格雷厄姆的套利原则先用于巴菲特合伙企业,后又用于伯克希尔。虽没做过精确计算,可我下的功夫足以让我断定,1956 至 1988 年的年均回报远超 20%。(当然,我所处的环境比本·格雷厄姆有利得多;他还得应付 1929 至 1932 年那段光景。)

In my opinion, the continuous 63-year arbitrage experience of Graham-Newman Corp. Buffett Partnership, and Berkshire illustrates just how foolish EMT is. (There’s plenty of other evidence, also.) While at Graham-Newman, I made a study of its earnings from arbitrage during the entire 1926-1956 lifespan of the company. Unleveraged returns averaged 20% per year. Starting in 1956, I applied Ben Graham’s arbitrage principles, first at Buffett Partnership and then Berkshire. Though I’ve not made an exact calculation, I have done enough work to know that the 1956-1988 returns averaged well over 20%. (Of course, I operated in an environment far more favorable than Ben’s; he had 1929-1932 to contend with.)

要公允地检验投资组合的表现,所需的全部条件这里都齐备了:其一,这三家机构在铸就这 63 年记录的过程中,交易过数百种不同的证券;其二,成绩并非被少数几次好运扭曲;其三,我们无须去挖掘什么隐秘事实,也无须对产品或管理层生出多深的洞见——我们只是就着广为人知的公开事件行事;其四,我们的套利头寸是一个界定清晰的整体——它们并非事后挑拣出来的。

All of the conditions are present that are required for a fair test of portfolio performance: (1) the three organizations traded hundreds of different securities while building this 63- year record; (2) the results are not skewed by a few fortunate experiences; (3) we did not have to dig for obscure facts or develop keen insights about products or managements - we simply acted on highly-publicized events; and (4) our arbitrage positions were a clearly identified universe - they have not been selected by hindsight.

这 63 年间,大盘的年均回报(含股息)略低于 10%。也就是说,若把所有收益悉数再投资,1,000 美元会变成 40.5 万美元;而 20% 的年回报,则会滚出 9,700 万美元。在我们看来,这个差距在统计上足够显著,兴许还真能勾起人的一点好奇。

Over the 63 years, the general market delivered just under a 10% annual return, including dividends. That means $1,000 would have grown to $405,000 if all income had been reinvested. A 20% rate of return, however, would have produced $97 million. That strikes us as a statistically-significant differential that might, conceivably, arouse one’s curiosity.

然而,这套理论的拥趸似乎从不理会这类相左的证据。诚然,如今他们已不像从前那样把这套理论挂在嘴边。可据我所知,没有谁认过错,哪怕他把成千上万名学生教得一错再错。更有甚者,EMT 至今仍是各大商学院投资课程里雷打不动的一块。看来,不肯认错、生怕拆穿“祭司”那层神秘面纱的,绝非只有神学家。

Yet proponents of the theory have never seemed interested in discordant evidence of this type. True, they don’t talk quite as much about their theory today as they used to. But no one, to my knowledge, has ever said he was wrong, no matter how many thousands of students he has sent forth misinstructed. EMT, moreover, continues to be an integral part of the investment curriculum at major business schools. Apparently, a reluctance to recant, and thereby to demystify the priesthood, is not limited to theologians.

自然,EMT 坑苦了那些囫囵吞下它的学生和轻信的投资专业人士;而对我们、对其他格雷厄姆门徒来说,这反倒是天大的成全。任何较量——无论比财力、比智力还是比体力——只要对手打小就被灌输“连试都别试”的念头,你便占尽了天大的便宜。从私心出发,格雷厄姆一派或许真该捐资设个教席,好让 EMT 世世代代传下去。

Naturally the disservice done students and gullible investment professionals who have swallowed EMT has been an extraordinary service to us and other followers of Graham. In any sort of a contest - financial, mental, or physical - it’s an enormous advantage to have opponents who have been taught that it’s useless to even try. From a selfish point of view, Grahamites should probably endow chairs to ensure the perpetual teaching of EMT.

话虽如此,还得敲一记警钟。套利近来看着容易,可它绝不是一种能保证每年 20% 利润的投资门道——甚至连保证赚钱都谈不上。前面说过,市场大多数时候都相当有效:这 63 年里,我们每抓住一个套利机会,就有多得多的机会因看着定价合理而被我们放过。

All this said, a warning is appropriate. Arbitrage has looked easy recently. But this is not a form of investing that guarantees profits of 20% a year or, for that matter, profits of any kind. As noted, the market is reasonably efficient much of the time: For every arbitrage opportunity we seized in that 63- year period, many more were foregone because they seemed properly-priced.

投资者绝不可能仅凭一头扎进某个特定的投资类别或风格,就从股票里挣到超额利润。他只能靠仔细掂量事实、靠不间断地保持纪律,才挣得到。为套利而套利,本身并不比靠掷飞镖挑组合高明多少。

An investor cannot obtain superior profits from stocks by simply committing to a specific investment category or style. He can earn them only by carefully evaluating facts and continuously exercising discipline. Investing in arbitrage situations, per se, is no better a strategy than selecting a portfolio by throwing darts.

在纽约证券交易所上市

New York Stock Exchange Listing

1988 年 11 月 29 日,伯克希尔的股票在纽约证券交易所挂牌。第 50 至 51 页,我们把当初就上市一事致股东的那封信重印于此。

Berkshire’s shares were listed on the New York Stock Exchange on November 29, 1988. On pages 50-51 we reproduce the letter we sent to shareholders concerning the listing.

信里没提的一点,容我在此讲明:虽然我们在纽交所的整手交易单位是 10 股,但从 1 股起,任意股数都可以买卖。

Let me clarify one point not dealt with in the letter: Though our round lot for trading on the NYSE is ten shares, any number of shares from one on up can be bought or sold.

正如信中所述,我们上市的首要目标是降低交易成本,我们相信这一目标正在实现。总体上,纽交所的买卖价差已远低于场外市场当年通行的水平。

As the letter explains, our primary goal in listing was to reduce transaction costs, and we believe this goal is being achieved. Generally, the spread between the bid and asked price on the NYSE has been well below the spread that prevailed in the over-the-counter market.

亨德森兄弟公司(Henderson Brothers, Inc.,简称 HBI)是我们股票的指定做市商,也是交易所中历史最悠久的持续经营做市商——其创始人威廉·托马斯·亨德森(William Thomas Henderson)于 1861 年 9 月 8 日以 500 美元买下了一个交易席位。(近期,一个席位售价约 62.5 万美元。)在 54 家做市商中,HBI 经手的股票数量排名第二,共 83 只。伯克希尔被分派给 HBI 时我们很高兴,而该公司此后的表现更让我们满意。HBI 董事长吉姆·马奎尔(Jim Maguire)亲自管理伯克希尔的交易,我们不可能有比这更好的托付了。

Henderson Brothers, Inc., the specialist in our shares, is the oldest continuing specialist firm on the Exchange; its progenitor, William Thomas Henderson, bought his seat for $500 on September 8, 1861. (Recently, seats were selling for about $625,000.) Among the 54 firms acting as specialists, HBI ranks second in number of stocks assigned, with 83. We were pleased when Berkshire was allocated to HBI, and have been delighted with the firm’s performance. Jim Maguire, Chairman of HBI, personally manages the trading in Berkshire, and we could not be in better hands.

在两点上,我们的目标大概和多数上市公司有些不同。其一,我们并不想把伯克希尔股票的交易价格推到最高。我们希望它在一个以内在业务价值为中心的窄幅区间里波动(而这内在价值,我们盼着它以合理——最好是不合理——的速度增长)。显著高估和显著低估,同样让查理和我心里不痛快。这两种极端都必然让许多股东拿到的结果与伯克希尔的经营实绩大相径庭。反过来,若股价始终如实映照业务价值,那么每位股东在其持有期内所得的投资回报,就会大致与伯克希尔这段时间的经营成果并驾齐驱。

In two respects our goals probably differ somewhat from those of most listed companies. First, we do not want to maximize the price at which Berkshire shares trade. We wish instead for them to trade in a narrow range centered at intrinsic business value (which we hope increases at a reasonable - or, better yet, unreasonable - rate). Charlie and I are bothered as much by significant overvaluation as significant undervaluation. Both extremes will inevitably produce results for many shareholders that will differ sharply from Berkshire’s business results. If our stock price instead consistently mirrors business value, each of our shareholders will receive an investment result that roughly parallels the business results of Berkshire during his holding period.

其二,我们希望交易活动越少越好。假如我们经营的是一家有几位不参与经营的被动合伙人的私人企业,那么这些合伙人及其接替者若三天两头想退伙,我们会很失望。经营一家上市公司,我们的心情别无二致。

Second, we wish for very little trading activity. If we ran a private business with a few passive partners, we would be disappointed if those partners, and their replacements, frequently wanted to leave the partnership. Running a public company, we feel the same way.

我们的目标是吸引那样一批长期所有者——他们买入之时,既没有卖出的时间表,也没有卖出的价位目标,打算无限期地与我们相守。有些首席执行官盼着股票交投活跃,我们实在不懂:要做到那样,只能靠他的所有者不断地离场。试问还有哪个组织——学校、俱乐部、教堂等等——的领导者,会为成员的离去而喝彩?(不过话说回来,倘若真有哪位经纪人的营生指望着这类组织成员的进进出出,那你尽可断定,总会冒出至少一位“交投活跃”的鼓吹者,张口便是:“基督教这阵子没什么新鲜事了,要不下周咱们改信佛教吧。”)

Our goal is to attract long-term owners who, at the time of purchase, have no timetable or price target for sale but plan instead to stay with us indefinitely. We don’t understand the CEO who wants lots of stock activity, for that can be achieved only if many of his owners are constantly exiting. At what other organization - school, club, church, etc. - do leaders cheer when members leave? (However, if there were a broker whose livelihood depended upon the membership turnover in such organizations, you could be sure that there would be at least one proponent of activity, as in: “There hasn’t been much going on in Christianity for a while; maybe we should switch to Buddhism next week.“)

当然,总有一些伯克希尔的所有者会时不时需要或想要卖出,我们盼着有好的接替者愿以公道价格接手。为此,我们竭力通过自己的方针、业绩和沟通,去吸引那些懂得我们经营之道、与我们时间视野相同、并按我们衡量自己的方式来衡量我们的新股东。如果我们能不断招来这样的股东——同样重要的是,能不断让那些抱着短期或不切实际念头的人提不起兴趣——伯克希尔的股价就应当始终维持在与业务价值合理挂钩的水平。

Of course, some Berkshire owners will need or want to sell from time to time, and we wish for good replacements who will pay them a fair price. Therefore we try, through our policies, performance, and communications, to attract new shareholders who understand our operations, share our time horizons, and measure us as we measure ourselves. If we can continue to attract this sort of shareholder - and, just as important, can continue to be uninteresting to those with short-term or unrealistic expectations - Berkshire shares should consistently sell at prices reasonably related to business value.

大卫·L·多德

David L. Dodd

戴夫·多德是我 38 年的良师益友,去年辞世,享年 93 岁。你们大多数人对他并不熟悉。但伯克希尔的每一位长期股东,都因他对我们公司产生的间接影响而确实更加富有了。

Dave Dodd, my friend and teacher for 38 years, died last year at age 93. Most of you don’t know of him. Yet any long- time shareholder of Berkshire is appreciably wealthier because of the indirect influence he had upon our company.

戴夫一生在哥伦比亚大学教书,并与本·格雷厄姆合著了《证券分析》。从我踏进哥大的那一刻起,戴夫就亲自鼓励我、教导我;鼓励与教导同等重要。他教给我的一切,无论是当面指点还是通过他的书,都很有道理。后来,他又通过几十封书信继续教导我,直至离世。

Dave spent a lifetime teaching at Columbia University, and he co-authored Security Analysis with Ben Graham. From the moment I arrived at Columbia, Dave personally encouraged and educated me; one influence was as important as the other. Everything he taught me, directly or through his book, made sense. Later, through dozens of letters, he continued my education right up until his death.

我认识许多金融与投资教授,但除了本·格雷厄姆,我从没见过有谁能与戴夫比肩。他才华的明证,就是他学生们的实绩:没有哪位投资学老师曾培养出这么多取得非凡成就的学生。

I have known many professors of finance and investments but I have never seen any, except for Ben Graham, who was the match of Dave. The proof of his talent is the record of his students: No other teacher of investments has sent forth so many who have achieved unusual success.

学生们走出戴夫的课堂时,已具备终身明智投资的能力,因为他传授的原则简单、可靠、有用且持久。这些品质看似平淡无奇,但将蕴含这些品质的原则传授给他人,却一直少之又少。

When students left Dave’s classroom, they were equipped to invest intelligently for a lifetime because the principles he taught were simple, sound, useful, and enduring. Though these may appear to be unremarkable virtues, the teaching of principles embodying them has been rare.

尤其令人钦佩的是,戴夫既能讲,也能做。正如凯恩斯把自己的学术思想运用到一笔极小的本金上从而致富一样,戴夫也是如此。事实上,他的投资业绩远胜凯恩斯——凯恩斯最初是一名“择时者”(依赖商业周期和信用周期理论),经过深思熟虑后才转向价值投资;而戴夫从一开始就走在了正确的道路上。

It’s particularly impressive that Dave could practice as well as preach. just as Keynes became wealthy by applying his academic ideas to a very small purse, so, too, did Dave. Indeed, his financial performance far outshone that of Keynes, who began as a market-timer (leaning on business and credit-cycle theory) and converted, after much thought, to value investing. Dave was right from the start.

在伯克希尔的投资中,查理和我运用的正是戴夫和本·格雷厄姆传授的原则。我们今日的兴旺,是他们那棵智慧之树结出的果实。

In Berkshire’s investments, Charlie and I have employed the principles taught by Dave and Ben Graham. Our prosperity is the fruit of their intellectual tree.

其他事项

Miscellaneous

我们希望能收购更多与现有企业类似的公司,也希望得到一些帮助。如果你有一门符合以下条件的生意,请给我打电话,或者最好是写信来。

We hope to buy more businesses that are similar to the ones we have, and we can use some help. If you have a business that fits the following criteria, call me or, preferably, write.

我们寻找的标的如下:

Here’s what we’re looking for:

(1)大宗收购(税后利润至少 1000 万美元);

(1) large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings),

(2)已展现出持续稳定的盈利能力(我们对未来的预测没什么兴趣,对“扭亏为盈”的局面也不感兴趣);

(2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are “turnaround” situations),

(3)在极少甚至不用负债的情况下,仍能实现良好净资产回报的企业;

(3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,

(4)管理层已到位(我们无法提供管理层);

(4) management in place (we can’t supply it),

(5)业务简单(如果涉及大量技术,我们会看不懂);

(5) simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we won’t understand it),

(6)有一个报价(价格不明时,我们不想浪费自己或卖方的时间,哪怕只是初步商谈)。

(6) an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).

我们不会参与敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密,并给出极快的答复——通常五分钟内——告知我们是否有兴趣。我们倾向于用现金收购,但如果发行股份所换得的内在业务价值与我们付出的相当,我们也会考虑发行股份。

We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily within five minutes - as to whether we’re interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuing stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give.

我们最喜欢的收购方式,是那种合乎“Blumkin-Friedman-Heldman”模式的交易。在这些案例中,公司的所有者兼经营者希望变现一大笔现金,有时是为自己,但往往是为家人或不参与经营的股东。与此同时,这些经理人也希望继续持有大量股份,一如既往地亲手经营公司。我们认为,对于抱有这些目标的所有者,我们是极为对口的买家,也诚邀潜在卖家通过联系曾与我们做过生意的人,来考察我们的为人。

Our favorite form of purchase is one fitting the Blumkin- Friedman-Heldman mold. In cases like these, the company’s owner- managers wish to generate significant amounts of cash, sometimes for themselves, but often for their families or inactive shareholders. However, these managers also wish to remain significant owners who continue to run their companies just as they have in the past. We think we offer a particularly good fit for owners with these objectives and invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past.

经常有远不符合我们标准的收购案找上查理和我。我们发现,如果你放出风声说要买柯利牧羊犬,就会有很多人打电话来,想把手里的可卡犬卖给你。对于初创企业、扭亏项目或类似拍卖式的出售,我们的兴趣可以用另一句戈德温名言来概括:“拜托,别算上我。”

Charlie and I frequently get approached about acquisitions that don’t come close to meeting our tests: We’ve found that if you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you their cocker spaniels. Our interest in new ventures, turnarounds, or auction-like sales can best be expressed by another Goldwynism: “Please include me out.”

除了对上述整盘收购生意感兴趣,我们也乐意通过协商,买进不谋求控股的大宗股票,类似于我们在大都会/美国广播公司和所罗门兄弟所持有的仓位。我们还特别倾向于把可转换优先股作为长期投资,就像我们在所罗门兄弟所做的那样。

Besides being interested in the purchase of businesses as described above, we are also interested in the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock comparable to those we hold in Cap Cities and Salomon. We have a special interest in purchasing convertible preferreds as a long- term investment, as we did at Salomon.

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几周前,我们收到了一个好消息:标准普尔将我们的信用评级上调至 AAA,这是它授予的最高评级。目前全美获评 AAA 的工业企业或财产险公司,除我们之外只有 15 家,而 1980 年的时候还有 28 家。

We received some good news a few weeks ago: Standard & Poor’s raised our credit rating to AAA, which is the highest rating it bestows. Only 15 other U.S. industrial or property- casualty companies are rated AAA, down from 28 in 1980.

过去几年,企业债券持有人因“事件风险”吃过不少苦头。这个词指的是,一家财务政策原本保守的公司,因遭遇高杠杆收购或资本重组,导致其信用在一夜之间大幅降级。在这个并购盛行、所有者亲自经营企业却很少见的世界里,大多数公司都存在这种风险。伯克希尔却不会。查理和我向债券持有人承诺,我们会像对待股东一样对待你们。

Corporate bondholders have taken their lumps in the past few years from “event risk.” This term refers to the overnight degradation of credit that accompanies a heavily-leveraged purchase or recapitalization of a business whose financial policies, up to then, had been conservative. In a world of takeovers inhabited by few owner-managers, most corporations present such a risk. Berkshire does not. Charlie and I promise bondholders the same respect we afford shareholders.

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在伯克希尔 1988 年的股东指定捐赠计划中,约有 97.4% 的合资格股份参与了捐赠。该计划捐出的善款共计 500 万美元,惠及 2,319 家慈善机构。如果我们的经营业绩尚可,我们计划在 1989 年提高每股的捐赠金额。

About 97.4% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire’s 1988 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made through the program were $5 million, and 2,319 charities were recipients. If we achieve reasonable business results, we plan to increase the per-share contributions in 1989.

我们敦促新股东阅读第 48 至 49 页关于股东指定捐赠计划的说明。如果你希望参与未来的计划,我们强烈建议你立即确认自己的股票是以实际受益人的名义登记的,而非登记在券商、银行或托管机构的代名人名下。凡在 1989 年 9 月 30 日仍未按此登记的股票,将没有资格参加 1989 年的计划。

We urge new shareholders to read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 48-49. If you wish to participate in future programs, we strongly urge that you immediately make sure your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on September 30, 1989 will be ineligible for the 1989 program.

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伯克希尔股东大会将于 1989 年 4 月 24 日(星期一)在奥马哈举行,我希望你能来参加。大会为你提供了当面向我们提出任何与股东相关问题的机会,我们会一直回答,直到所有问题(涉及投资组合操作或其他专有信息的问题除外)都解答完毕为止。

Berkshire’s annual meeting will be held in Omaha on Monday, April 24, 1989, and I hope you will come. The meeting provides the forum for you to ask any owner-related questions you may have, and we will keep answering until all (except those dealing with portfolio activities or other proprietary information) have been dealt with.

会后我们将安排几辆大巴,送各位去内布拉斯加家具城拜访 B 夫人,再去波仙珠宝拜访艾克·弗里德曼。请准备好尽情选购吧。

After the meeting we will have several buses available to take you to visit Mrs. B at The Nebraska Furniture Mart and Ike Friedman at Borsheim’s. Be prepared for bargains.

外地来的股东或许更愿意提前抵达,趁周日的营业时间(中午 12 点到下午 5 点)去拜访 B 夫人。(这个周日营业时间在 B 夫人看来短得可笑,她觉得这点时间连热身都不够;她更中意那些从上午 10 点一直营业到晚上 9 点的日子。)不过,波仙珠宝周日不营业。

Out-of-towners may prefer to arrive early and visit Mrs. B during the Sunday store hours of noon to five. (These Sunday hours seem ridiculously short to Mrs. B, who feels they scarcely allow her time to warm up; she much prefers the days on which the store remains open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.) Borsheims, however, is not open on Sunday.

不妨向 B 夫人打听一下她那低得惊人的地毯价格有何秘诀。她会像告诉其他所有人那样,跟你掏心窝子:“我能卖这么便宜,是因为我在给一个对地毯一窍不通的傻瓜打工。”

Ask Mrs. B the secret of her astonishingly low carpet prices. She will confide to you - as she does to everyone - how she does it: “I can sell so cheap ‘cause I work for this dummy who doesn’t know anything about carpet.”

沃伦·E·巴菲特

董事会主席

1989 年 2 月 28 日

Warren E. Buffett February 28, 1989 Chairman of the Board