2007 年致股东信
注:下表刊载于印刷版年报中董事长信函的对面页,信函中亦有所提及。
Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman's Letter and is referred to in that letter.
伯克希尔的业绩表现与标普 500 指数对比
Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500
| 伯克希尔每股账面价值的年度百分比变化 | 标普500指数含股息变动 | 相对结果 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 年度 | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (11.7) | 32.0 |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 30.9 | (19.9) |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | (8.4) | 24.6 |
| 1970 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 18.9 | 2.8 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (14.8) | 19.5 |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (26.4) | 31.9 |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 37.2 | (15.3) |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 23.6 | 35.7 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | (7.4) | 39.3 |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 17.6 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 17.5 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.3 | (13.0) |
| 1981 | 31.4 | (5.0) | 36.4 |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 22.4 | 9.9 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 31.6 | 16.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 7.5 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 14.4 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 31.7 | 12.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (3.1) | 10.5 |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 37.6 | 5.5 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 23.0 | 8.8 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 33.4 | .7 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 28.6 | 19.7 |
| 1999 | .5 | 21.0 | (20.5) |
| 2000 | 6.5 | (9.1) | 15.6 |
| 2001 | (6.2) | (11.9) | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (22.1) | 32.1 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 28.7 | (7.7) |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 10.9 | (.4) |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 年均复合收益——1965-2007 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.8 |
| 整体收益——1964-2007 | 400,863% | 6,840% |
| Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire | in S&P 500 with Dividends Included | Relative Results | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (11.7) | 32.0 |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 30.9 | (19.9) |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | (8.4) | 24.6 |
| 1970 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 18.9 | 2.8 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (14.8) | 19.5 |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (26.4) | 31.9 |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 37.2 | (15.3) |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 23.6 | 35.7 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | (7.4) | 39.3 |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 17.6 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 17.5 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.3 | (13.0) |
| 1981 | 31.4 | (5.0) | 36.4 |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 22.4 | 9.9 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 31.6 | 16.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 7.5 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 14.4 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 31.7 | 12.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (3.1) | 10.5 |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 37.6 | 5.5 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 23.0 | 8.8 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 33.4 | .7 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 28.6 | 19.7 |
| 1999 | .5 | 21.0 | (20.5) |
| 2000 | 6.5 | (9.1) | 15.6 |
| 2001 | (6.2) | (11.9) | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (22.1) | 32.1 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 28.7 | (7.7) |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 10.9 | (.4) |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2007 | 21.1% | 10.3% | 10.8 |
| Overall Gain – 1964-2007 | 400,863% | 6,840% |
注:数据按日历年统计,但以下年份除外:1965 年和 1966 年截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。自 1979 年起,会计规则要求保险公司按市价而非成本与市价孰低法(此前要求)对其持有的股票进行估值。在本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年之前的业绩已按变更后的规则重述。在其他所有方面,业绩均使用原始报告的数字计算。标普 500 指数数字为税前,而伯克希尔数字为税后。如果一家像伯克希尔这样的公司仅持有标普 500 指数并计提相应税款,其业绩在指数显示正回报的年份将落后于标普 500 指数,而在指数显示负回报的年份会超越标普 500 指数。多年累积下来,税收成本将导致总体差距相当可观。
Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司各位股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
2007 年我们的净资产增加了 123 亿美元,这使 A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值都增长了 11%。过去 43 年(也就是现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元增长到 78,008 美元,年复合增长率 21.1%。* 总体来看,我们旗下的 76 家运营企业去年表现不错。少数出问题的企业主要跟房地产相关,其中包括我们的砖厂、地毯和房地产经纪业务。这些挫折影响不大,也是暂时的。我们在这些领域的竞争地位依然牢固,而且有一流的首席执行官在经营,无论行情好坏都能把企业管好。
不过,一些大型金融机构遇到了惊人的麻烦,因为它们卷入了我在去年的信中提到的“宽松放贷做法”。富国银行首席执行官约翰·斯顿夫对近期许多放贷机构的行为剖析得很到位:“有意思的是,这个行业在旧办法看起来挺好用的时候,却发明了新办法来亏钱。”你可能还记得 2003 年硅谷的一张贴纸,上面写着:“求你了,上帝,再来一次泡沫吧。”不幸的是,这个愿望很快就实现了,因为几乎所有的美国人都开始相信房价会永远上涨。这种信念让借款人的收入和现金净值在放贷机构眼里变得无关紧要,它们拼命往外掏钱,笃信房价上涨能解决一切问题。今天,我们这个国家正因为这个错误的信念而承受大范围的痛苦。随着房价下跌,大量的金融蠢行正在暴露。潮水退去时你才会发现谁在裸泳——而我们在一些最大的金融机构里看到的,正是难看的景象。
转到更愉快的话题上来,我们可以报告,伯克希尔最新进行的两笔大规模收购,TTI 和伊斯卡,在各自首席执行官保罗·安德鲁斯和雅各布·哈帕兹的带领下,2007 年表现出色。伊斯卡的制造业务是我见过的最出色的之一,这是我去年就有的看法,去年秋天我参观了它在韩国的非凡工厂,更加印证了这一点。最后,我们的保险业务——伯克希尔的基石——度过了非常好的一年。部分原因是我们拥有业内最优秀的保险管理团队,后面再细说。但 2007 年我们也很幸运,连续第二年没有遭遇重大保险巨灾。这场聚会结束了。可以肯定的是,2008 年保险行业的利润率,包括我们的,都会明显下降。保费在下降,风险敞口却在无情地上升。即使美国连续第三年灾害较少,行业利润率也很可能会收缩大约四个百分点。如果狂风呼啸或者大地颤抖,结果可能会糟得多。所以,做好未来几年保险收益下降的心理准备吧。
Our gain in net worth during 2007 was $12.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 11%. Over the last 43 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $78,008, a rate of 21.1% compounded annually.* Overall, our 76 operating businesses did well last year. The few that had problems were primarily those linked to housing, among them our brick, carpet and real estate brokerage operations. Their setbacks are minor and temporary. Our competitive position in these businesses remains strong, and we have firstclass CEOs who run them right, in good times or bad. Some major financial institutions have, however, experienced staggering problems because they engaged in the “weakened lending practices” I described in last year’s letter. John Stumpf, CEO of Wells Fargo, aptly dissected the recent behavior of many lenders: “It is interesting that the industry has invented new ways to lose money when the old ways seemed to work just fine.” You may recall a 2003 Silicon Valley bumper sticker that implored, “Please, God, Just One More Bubble.” Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. That conviction made a borrower’s income and cash equity seem unimportant to lenders, who shoveled out money, confident that HPA – house price appreciation – would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief. As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out – and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight. Turning to happier thoughts, we can report that Berkshire’s newest acquisitions of size, TTI and Iscar, led by their CEOs, Paul Andrews and Jacob Harpaz respectively, performed magnificently in 2007. Iscar is as impressive a manufacturing operation as I’ve seen, a view I reported last year and that was confirmed by a visit I made in the fall to its extraordinary plant in Korea. Finally, our insurance business – the cornerstone of Berkshire – had an excellent year. Part of the reason is that we have the best collection of insurance managers in the business – more about them later. But we also were very lucky in 2007, the second year in a row free of major insured catastrophes. That party is over. It’s a certainty that insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008. Prices are down, and exposures inexorably rise. Even if the U.S. has its third consecutive catastrophe-light year, industry profit margins will probably shrink by four percentage points or so. If the winds roar or the earth trembles, results could be far worse. So be prepared for lower insurance earnings during the next few years.
Yardsticks
Yardsticks
伯克希尔有两个主要的价值领域。第一是投资:股票、债券和现金等价物。年底这些总计达 1410 亿美元(不包括我们在金融或公用事业业务中的投资,那一块我们归入第二个价值领域)。
Berkshire has two major areas of value. The first is our investments: stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. At yearend these totaled $141 billion (not counting those in our finance or utility operations, which we assign to our second bucket of value).
本报告中所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔的 A 股。B 股数据为 A 股所示数据的 1/30。
*All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/30th of those shown for the A.
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保险浮存金——我们暂时持有、但并不属于我们的保险业务资金——为我们的投资提供了 590 亿美元的资金。只要保险承保达到盈亏平衡,即我们收取的保费与发生的损失和费用相当,这笔浮存金就是“免费”的。当然,保险承保本身波动很大,时盈时亏,起伏不定。但纵观我们整个历史,我们一直保持盈利,我预计未来我们平均能做到盈亏平衡甚至更好。如果我们做到这一点,那么我们的投资就可以被视为伯克希尔股东一项无负担的价值来源。伯克希尔价值的第二个组成部分,是来自投资和保险之外业务的收益。这些收益由我们旗下 66 家非保险公司贡献,逐项列在第 76 页。早年我们专注于投资领域。但过去二十年里,我们越来越重视非保险业务收益的发展。下面的表格说明了这一转变。第一张表按 14 年间隔列出了每股投资金额,其中剔除了归属于少数股东权益的部分。
Insurance float – money we temporarily hold in our insurance operations that does not belong to us – funds $59 billion of our investments. This float is “free” as long as insurance underwriting breaks even, meaning that the premiums we receive equal the losses and expenses we incur. Of course, insurance underwriting is volatile, swinging erratically between profits and losses. Over our entire history, however, we’ve been profitable, and I expect we will average breakeven results or better in the future. If we do that, our investments can be viewed as an unencumbered source of value for Berkshire shareholders. Berkshire’s second component of value is earnings that come from sources other than investments and insurance. These earnings are delivered by our 66 non-insurance companies, itemized on page 76. In our early years, we focused on the investment side. During the past two decades, however, we have put ever more emphasis on the development of earnings from non-insurance businesses. The following tables illustrate this shift. In the first we tabulate per-share investments at 14-year intervals. We exclude those applicable to minority interests.
Year 1965 1979 1993 2007
Year 1965 1979 1993 2007
每股投资金额 4 577 13,961 90,343
Per-Share Investments 4 577 13,961 90,343
Years
Years
每股投资的复利年增长率
Compounded Annual Gain in Per-Share Investments
1965-1979 1979-1993 1993-2007 42.8% 25.6% 14.3%
1965-1979 1979-1993 1993-2007 42.8% 25.6% 14.3%
$
$
在长达 42 年的时间里,我们每股投资的年复合增长率高达 27.1%。但这一趋势一直在下滑,因为我们越来越倾向于将可用资金用于收购运营企业。以下是非保险业务盈利的增长记录,同样按每股计算,并扣除了适用的少数股东权益。
For the entire 42 years, our compounded annual gain in per-share investments was 27.1%. But the trend has been downward as we increasingly used our available funds to buy operating businesses. Here’s the record on how earnings of our non-insurance businesses have grown, again on a pershare basis and after applicable minority interests.
Year 1965 1979 1993 2007
Year 1965 1979 1993 2007
每股税前收益 4 美元 18 美元 212 美元 4,093 美元
Per Share Pre-Tax Earnings 4 18 212 4,093
Years
Years
每股税前收益的复利年增长率
Compounded Annual Gain in PerShare Pre-Tax Earnings
1965-1979 1979-1993 1993-2007 11.1% 19.1% 23.5%
1965-1979 1979-1993 1993-2007 11.1% 19.1% 23.5%
$
$
纵观整个时期,复合年增长率为 17.8%,随着我们聚焦点的转移,增速有所加快。尽管这些表格可能有助于您获得历史视角并用于估值,但在预测未来可能性方面,它们完全具有误导性。伯克希尔过去的业绩无法复制,甚至难以企及。我们目前的资产和收益基础过于庞大,未来难以实现超额收益。我和我在伯克希尔的合作伙伴查理·芒格,将继续用我刚才描述的两个标尺来衡量我们的进展,并定期向您汇报结果。尽管我们无法复制过去,但我们会尽力确保未来不会令人失望。
For the entire period, the compounded annual gain was 17.8%, with gains accelerating as our focus shifted. Though these tables may help you gain historical perspective and be useful in valuation, they are completely misleading in predicting future possibilities. Berkshire’s past record can’t be duplicated or even approached. Our base of assets and earnings is now far too large for us to make outsized gains in the future. Charlie Munger, my partner at Berkshire, and I will continue to measure our progress by the two yardsticks I have just described and will regularly update you on the results. Though we can’t come close to duplicating the past, we will do our best to make sure the future is not disappointing.
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在我们的努力中,加入伯克希尔的经理人们将给予我们巨大的帮助。这个团队在多个方面显得不同寻常。首先,他们中的大多数人在财务上并无工作的必要。许多人以高价将自己的企业卖给我们,依然选择经营,是因为热爱这份事业,而非出于金钱的需求。自然,他们期望得到公正的报酬,但金钱并非他们勤奋高效工作的唯一驱动力。
In our efforts, we will be aided enormously by the managers who have joined Berkshire. This is an unusual group in several ways. First, most of them have no financial need to work. Many sold us their businesses for large sums and run them because they love doing so, not because they need the money. Naturally they wish to be paid fairly, but money alone is not the reason they work hard and productively.
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第二个与此略有关联的要点是,这些经理人的工作正是他们职业生涯剩余岁月中想要的。在几乎任何其他公司,高层以下的骨干经理都渴望不断向上攀登。对他们而言,今天所管理的子公司或部门只是一个中转站——至少他们如此期望。事实上,如果五年后他们还待在现在的岗位上,很可能觉得自己是失败者。反过来,我们这些首席执行官的成功记分卡,不是看我是否获得我的职位,而是看他们业务的长期表现。他们的决策源自一种“今天在此,永远在此”的心态。我认为,我们这种罕见且难以复制的管理结构,给了伯克希尔一个实实在在的优势。
A second, somewhat related, point about these managers is that they have exactly the job they want for the rest of their working years. At almost any other company, key managers below the top aspire to keep climbing the pyramid. For them, the subsidiary or division they manage today is a way station – or so they hope. Indeed, if they are in their present positions five years from now, they may well feel like failures. Conversely, our CEOs’ scorecards for success are not whether they obtain my job but instead are the long-term performances of their businesses. Their decisions flow from a here-today, here-forever mindset. I think our rare and hard-to-replicate managerial structure gives Berkshire a real advantage.
Acquisitions
Acquisitions
尽管我们的经理人或许已是业内翘楚,但若要实现所期望的经营利润增长,我们仍亟需进行大规模且明智的收购。在这一方面,2007 年我们几乎全年无所建树,直到年末才有所突破。圣诞节当天,查理和我终于通过签订伯克希尔历史上最大金额的现金收购协议,赚到了我们的“工资”。这笔交易的种子早在 1954 年就已埋下。那年秋天,我刚入职三个月,就被我的雇主本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼派去参加布鲁克林洛克伍德巧克力公司的股东大会。当时,一个年轻人刚刚掌控了这家生产各类可可制品的企业,随后他发起了一项独一无二的要约:用 80 磅可可豆换取每股洛克伍德股票。我在 1988 年年报中讲述套利的那一节描述过这笔交易,也告诉过你们,杰伊·普利兹克——就是上面提到的那个年轻人——是这项节税妙计背后的商业天才,而他想到的方案,是所有其他考虑过收购洛克伍德的专家都未曾料到的,包括我的老板本和杰里。在那次会议上,杰伊态度友善,还给我上了一堂关于 1954 年税法的课,我离开时对他印象深刻。此后,我热切关注着杰伊的商业动作,他的生意繁多且精彩。他重要的搭档是他的兄弟鲍勃,鲍勃在近 50 年的时间里经营着马蒙集团,那里是普利兹克家族大部分企业的所在地。杰伊于 1999 年去世,鲍勃则在 2002 年初退休。大约在那时,普利兹克家族决定逐步出售或重组部分资产,包括马蒙——这家公司运营着 125 项业务,分属九个部门。马蒙最大的业务是联合油罐车公司,它与一家加拿大同行共同拥有 94,000 辆铁路油罐车,出租给各类托运人。这支车队的原始成本为 51 亿美元。总体而言,马蒙的销售额为 70 亿美元,员工约 20,000 人。我们将很快购入马蒙 60% 的股份,并将在六年内收购几乎全部剩余股份。我们的初始支出为 45 亿美元,后续购买的价格将根据与盈利挂钩的公式确定。在我们介入之前,普利兹克家族已从马蒙的现金分配、投资及部分业务中获得了可观的回报。这桩交易完全符合杰伊的行事风格。我们仅依据马蒙的财务报表便敲定了价格,没有聘请顾问,也没有吹毛求疵。我知道这家公司会像普利兹克家族所描述的那样,而他们也清楚,无论金融市场多么混乱,我们都会准时交割。过去一年,许多大型交易被重新谈判或彻底告吹。但和普利兹克家族打交道,就像和伯克希尔打交道一样,一言既出,驷马难追。马蒙的首席执行官弗兰克·普塔克与长期搭档约翰·尼科尔斯密切合作。约翰曾任伊利诺伊工具公司(ITW)的掌门人,成绩斐然,在那里他和弗兰克联手管理一系列工业企业。不妨看看他们在 ITW 的业绩,你一定会刮目相看。
Though our managers may be the best, we will need large and sensible acquisitions to get the growth in operating earnings we wish. Here, we made little progress in 2007 until very late in the year. Then, on Christmas day, Charlie and I finally earned our paychecks by contracting for the largest cash purchase in Berkshire’s history. The seeds of this transaction were planted in 1954. That fall, only three months into a new job, I was sent by my employers, Ben Graham and Jerry Newman, to a shareholders’ meeting of Rockwood Chocolate in Brooklyn. A young fellow had recently taken control of this company, a manufacturer of assorted cocoa-based items. He had then initiated a one-of-a-kind tender, offering 80 pounds of cocoa beans for each share of Rockwood stock. I described this transaction in a section of the 1988 annual report that explained arbitrage. I also told you that Jay Pritzker – the young fellow mentioned above – was the business genius behind this tax-efficient idea, the possibilities for which had escaped all the other experts who had thought about buying Rockwood, including my bosses, Ben and Jerry. At the meeting, Jay was friendly and gave me an education on the 1954 tax code. I came away very impressed. Thereafter, I avidly followed Jay’s business dealings, which were many and brilliant. His valued partner was his brother, Bob, who for nearly 50 years ran Marmon Group, the home for most of the Pritzker businesses. Jay died in 1999, and Bob retired early in 2002. Around then, the Pritzker family decided to gradually sell or reorganize certain of its holdings, including Marmon, a company operating 125 businesses, managed through nine sectors. Marmon’s largest operation is Union Tank Car, which together with a Canadian counterpart owns 94,000 rail cars that are leased to various shippers. The original cost of this fleet is $5.1 billion. All told, Marmon has $7 billion in sales and about 20,000 employees. We will soon purchase 60% of Marmon and will acquire virtually all of the balance within six years. Our initial outlay will be $4.5 billion, and the price of our later purchases will be based on a formula tied to earnings. Prior to our entry into the picture, the Pritzker family received substantial consideration from Marmon’s distribution of cash, investments and certain businesses. This deal was done in the way Jay would have liked. We arrived at a price using only Marmon’s financial statements, employing no advisors and engaging in no nit-picking. I knew that the business would be exactly as the Pritzkers represented, and they knew that we would close on the dot, however chaotic financial markets might be. During the past year, many large deals have been renegotiated or killed entirely. With the Pritzkers, as with Berkshire, a deal is a deal. Marmon’s CEO, Frank Ptak, works closely with a long-time associate, John Nichols. John was formerly the highly successful CEO of Illinois Tool Works (ITW), where he teamed with Frank to run a mix of industrial businesses. Take a look at their ITW record; you’ll be impressed.
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高盛集团的拜伦·特洛特,我在 2003 年年报中曾盛赞过他,为马蒙交易搭桥牵线。拜伦是罕见的能设身处地为客户着想的投资银行家。查理和我对他完全信任。你会喜欢高盛给这笔交易起的代号。马蒙 1902 年进入汽车行业,1933 年退出。期间它制造过“黄蜂”牌汽车,该车赢得了 1911 年首届印第安纳波利斯 500 英里大赛的冠军。因此,这笔交易被命名为“印地 500”。
Byron Trott of Goldman Sachs – whose praises I sang in the 2003 report – facilitated the Marmon transaction. Byron is the rare investment banker who puts himself in his client’s shoes. Charlie and I trust him completely. You’ll like the code name that Goldman Sachs assigned the deal. Marmon entered the auto business in 1902 and exited it in 1933. Along the way it manufactured the Wasp, a car that won the first Indianapolis 500 race, held in 1911. So this deal was labeled “Indy 500.”
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2006 年 5 月,我在西雅图珠宝连锁店本·布里奇公司的一场午餐会上发言。听众中坐着不少供应商,其中有一位名叫丹尼斯·乌尔里希,他经营着一家金饰制造公司。2007 年 1 月,丹尼斯打来电话,提出如果伯克希尔支持,他可以打造一家大型珠宝供应商。我们很快谈妥了他的公司收购事宜,同时买下了一家规模相当的供应商。新成立的瑞奇林集团此后又完成了两笔小型收购。即便加上这些,瑞奇林的利润仍远低于我们通常要求的收购门槛。不过,我愿意打赌,丹尼斯——在他的搭档戴夫·梅莱斯基的协助下——会把这门生意做成大气候,投入的资本也能带来可观的回报。
In May 2006, I spoke at a lunch at Ben Bridge, our Seattle-based jewelry chain. The audience was a number of its vendors, among them Dennis Ulrich, owner of a company that manufactured gold jewelry. In January 2007, Dennis called me, suggesting that with Berkshire’s support he could build a large jewelry supplier. We soon made a deal for his business, simultaneously purchasing a supplier of about equal size. The new company, Richline Group, has since made two smaller acquisitions. Even with those, Richline is far below the earnings threshold we normally require for purchases. I’m willing to bet, however, that Dennis – with the help of his partner, Dave Meleski – will build a large operation, earning good returns on capital employed.
企业——卓越者、优秀者与糟糕者
Businesses – The Great, the Good and the Gruesome
我们不妨看看什么样的生意能让我们动心,顺便也聊聊我们避之不及的那些。查理和我找的是这样的公司:一、生意我们看得懂;二、长期经济前景好;三、管理层能干又可信;四、价格合理。我们喜欢整家买下来,或者要是管理层愿意做搭档,至少买下 80%。不过,当这种控股式收购优质生意的机会没有时,我们也很乐意通过股市买入大公司的一小部分股权。拥有希望之星钻石的一部分,比整个拥有一颗人造宝石要强得多。一家真正伟大的生意,必须有一条持久的“护城河”,保护资本投入的高回报。资本主义的运行机制注定了,竞争对手会不断攻击任何一座赚钱的生意“城堡”。因此,一道难以逾越的屏障——比如低成本生产商(GEICO、好市多)或者拥有强大的全球品牌(可口可乐、吉列、美国运通)——对持续成功至关重要。商业史上满是“罗马蜡烛”,那些护城河被证明是幻觉、很快就被人跨过的公司。我们“持久”这一标准,让我们排除那些身处快速、持续变化行业的公司。虽说资本主义的“创造性破坏”对社会极其有益,但它也断送了投资中的确定性。一条需要不断重建的护城河,最终根本算不上护城河。此外,这一标准也排除了那些成功系于一位出色经理人的生意。当然,一流的首席执行官对任何企业都是巨大财富,在伯克希尔,这样的经理人我们有一大把。他们的才能创造出了数十亿美元的价值,如果换成普通首席执行官来经营这些生意,这些价值根本不可能出现。但是,如果一项生意非得靠个明星人物才能干出好成绩,那这生意本身就算不上伟大。一个由你所在地区最顶尖的脑外科医生领衔的医疗合伙所,可能赚得盆满钵满且持续增长,但这对它的未来说明不了什么。外科医生一走,这个合伙所的护城河也就没了。而梅奥诊所的护城河,你可以放心它能一直存在,尽管你叫不出它的首席执行官是谁。
Let’s take a look at what kind of businesses turn us on. And while we’re at it, let’s also discuss what we wish to avoid. Charlie and I look for companies that have a) a business we understand; b) favorable long-term economics; c) able and trustworthy management; and d) a sensible price tag. We like to buy the whole business or, if management is our partner, at least 80%. When control-type purchases of quality aren’t available, though, we are also happy to simply buy small portions of great businesses by way of stockmarket purchases. It’s better to have a part interest in the Hope Diamond than to own all of a rhinestone. A truly great business must have an enduring “moat” that protects excellent returns on invested capital. The dynamics of capitalism guarantee that competitors will repeatedly assault any business “castle” that is earning high returns. Therefore a formidable barrier such as a company’s being the lowcost producer (GEICO, Costco) or possessing a powerful world-wide brand (Coca-Cola, Gillette, American Express) is essential for sustained success. Business history is filled with “Roman Candles,” companies whose moats proved illusory and were soon crossed. Our criterion of “enduring” causes us to rule out companies in industries prone to rapid and continuous change. Though capitalism’s “creative destruction” is highly beneficial for society, it precludes investment certainty. A moat that must be continuously rebuilt will eventually be no moat at all. Additionally, this criterion eliminates the business whose success depends on having a great manager. Of course, a terrific CEO is a huge asset for any enterprise, and at Berkshire we have an abundance of these managers. Their abilities have created billions of dollars of value that would never have materialized if typical CEOs had been running their businesses. But if a business requires a superstar to produce great results, the business itself cannot be deemed great. A medical partnership led by your area’s premier brain surgeon may enjoy outsized and growing earnings, but that tells little about its future. The partnership’s moat will go when the surgeon goes. You can count, though, on the moat of the Mayo Clinic to endure, even though you can’t name its CEO.
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在一个稳定的行业中拥有长期竞争优势,这正是我们在企业中所追寻的。如果这种优势伴随着快速的有机增长,那再好不过。但即便没有有机增长,这样的企业也同样回报丰厚。我们只需将企业丰厚的盈利拿去,在其他地方购买类似的企业。没有哪条规定说你必须在赚钱的地方再投资。实际上,这样做常常是个错误:那些真正伟大的企业,在有形资产上赚取高额回报,却无法长期在内部以高回报率再投资其大部分盈利。让我们看看我们梦想企业的原型,我们自己的喜诗糖果。它所处的盒装巧克力行业并不出彩:美国的人均消费量极低且不见增长。许多曾经重要的品牌都已消失,过去四十年里只有三家公司赚到了像样的利润。事实上,我相信喜诗,尽管其大部分收入仅来自少数几个州,却占了整个行业近一半的盈利。在喜诗,1972 年蓝筹印花收购该公司时,年销量为 1600 万磅糖果。(当时查理和我控制着蓝筹印花,后来将其并入伯克希尔。)去年喜诗售出 3100 万磅,年增长率仅为 2%。然而,它那由喜诗家族历时 50 年打造、并由查克·哈金斯和布拉德·金斯特勒后来加强的持久竞争优势,为伯克希尔带来了非凡的成果。我们以 2500 万美元买下喜诗时,其销售额为 3000 万美元,税前利润不足 500 万美元。当时经营业务所需资本为 800 万美元。(每年还有几个月需要少量季节性借款。)因此,该公司投入资本的税前回报率高达 60%。有两个因素帮助最小化了运营所需资金。第一,产品以现金销售,消除了应收账款。第二,生产和分销周期短,最小化了库存。去年喜诗销售额为 3.83 亿美元,税前利润为 8200 万美元。如今运营业务所需资本为 4000 万美元。这意味着自 1972 年以来,我们只需再投入 3200 万美元,以应对业务适度的物理增长——以及有些过度的财务增长。与此同时,税前利润累计达到 13.5 亿美元。除那 3200 万美元外,其余全部上缴给伯克希尔(或在早期给蓝筹印花)。在支付公司税后,我们用剩余资金购买了其他有吸引力的企业。正如亚当和夏娃开启了一项导致六十亿人类的活动,喜诗也为我们催生了多条新的现金流。(“要生养众多”这条圣经命令,在伯克希尔我们严肃对待。)美国企业中很少有喜诗这样的。通常,将盈利从 500 万美元增加到 8200 万美元的公司,需要大约 4 亿美元或更多的资本投资来支撑其增长。这是因为成长型企业既有随销售增长而成比例增加的营运资金需求,也有对固定资产投资的重大需求。一家需要大量资本增加来带动增长的公司,很可能证明是一项令人满意的投资。以我们的例子来说,在 4 亿美元的净有形资产上赚取 8200 万美元税前利润并不寒酸。但这对所有者而言的等式与喜诗的情况截然不同。远好的是拥有不断增长的盈利流,且几乎不需要重大资本投入。问问微软或谷歌就知道了。一个不错但远非惊人的商业经济学例子是我们自己的飞安国际。这家公司为客户带来的益处,与我认识的任何企业相比都毫不逊色。它还拥有持久的竞争优势:去任何不是最好的飞行培训机构,就像在外科手术中选了个低价竞标者。
Long-term competitive advantage in a stable industry is what we seek in a business. If that comes with rapid organic growth, great. But even without organic growth, such a business is rewarding. We will simply take the lush earnings of the business and use them to buy similar businesses elsewhere. There’s no rule that you have to invest money where you’ve earned it. Indeed, it’s often a mistake to do so: Truly great businesses, earning huge returns on tangible assets, can’t for any extended period reinvest a large portion of their earnings internally at high rates of return. Let’s look at the prototype of a dream business, our own See’s Candy. The boxed-chocolates industry in which it operates is unexciting: Per-capita consumption in the U.S. is extremely low and doesn’t grow. Many once-important brands have disappeared, and only three companies have earned more than token profits over the last forty years. Indeed, I believe that See’s, though it obtains the bulk of its revenues from only a few states, accounts for nearly half of the entire industry’s earnings. At See’s, annual sales were 16 million pounds of candy when Blue Chip Stamps purchased the company in 1972. (Charlie and I controlled Blue Chip at the time and later merged it into Berkshire.) Last year See’s sold 31 million pounds, a growth rate of only 2% annually. Yet its durable competitive advantage, built by the See’s family over a 50-year period, and strengthened subsequently by Chuck Huggins and Brad Kinstler, has produced extraordinary results for Berkshire. We bought See’s for $25 million when its sales were $30 million and pre-tax earnings were less than $5 million. The capital then required to conduct the business was $8 million. (Modest seasonal debt was also needed for a few months each year.) Consequently, the company was earning 60% pre-tax on invested capital. Two factors helped to minimize the funds required for operations. First, the product was sold for cash, and that eliminated accounts receivable. Second, the production and distribution cycle was short, which minimized inventories. Last year See’s sales were $383 million, and pre-tax profits were $82 million. The capital now required to run the business is $40 million. This means we have had to reinvest only $32 million since 1972 to handle the modest physical growth – and somewhat immodest financial growth – of the business. In the meantime pre-tax earnings have totaled $1.35 billion. All of that, except for the $32 million, has been sent to Berkshire (or, in the early years, to Blue Chip). After paying corporate taxes on the profits, we have used the rest to buy other attractive businesses. Just as Adam and Eve kick-started an activity that led to six billion humans, See’s has given birth to multiple new streams of cash for us. (The biblical command to “be fruitful and multiply” is one we take seriously at Berkshire.) There aren’t many See’s in Corporate America. Typically, companies that increase their earnings from $5 million to $82 million require, say, $400 million or so of capital investment to finance their growth. That’s because growing businesses have both working capital needs that increase in proportion to sales growth and significant requirements for fixed asset investments. A company that needs large increases in capital to engender its growth may well prove to be a satisfactory investment. There is, to follow through on our example, nothing shabby about earning $82 million pre-tax on $400 million of net tangible assets. But that equation for the owner is vastly different from the See’s situation. It’s far better to have an ever-increasing stream of earnings with virtually no major capital requirements. Ask Microsoft or Google. One example of good, but far from sensational, business economics is our own FlightSafety. This company delivers benefits to its customers that are the equal of those delivered by any business that I know of. It also possesses a durable competitive advantage: Going to any other flight-training provider than the best is like taking the low bid on a surgical procedure.
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不过,这门生意若想发展,就必须对利润进行大规模再投资。1996 年我们收购飞安国际时,其税前经营利润为 1.11 亿美元,固定资产净投资为 5.7 亿美元。自收购以来,折旧费用累计达 9.23 亿美元,但资本支出累计高达 16.35 亿美元,其中大部分用于购置模拟器,以匹配不断推出的新机型。(一台模拟器耗资超过 1200 万美元,我们共有 273 台。)扣除折旧后,我们的固定资产现值 10.79 亿美元。2007 年税前经营利润为 2.7 亿美元,较 1996 年增加 1.59 亿美元。这笔增量投资 5.09 亿美元带来的回报相当不错,但远不及喜诗糖果那样的水平。因此,若仅以经济回报衡量,飞安国际是一门优秀但并非非凡的生意。它的“多投多得”经验与大多数公司无异。例如,我们对受监管公用事业的大规模投资就完全属于此类。十年后,这门生意会赚到多得多的钱,但我们需要投入数十亿美元才能实现。现在,让我们谈谈令人沮丧的一面。最糟糕的生意是那种增长迅速、需要大量资本来推动增长,却最终赚不到什么钱的类型。想想航空公司。自莱特兄弟时代以来,持久的竞争优势在这里始终难以企及。事实上,如果当年有一位有远见的资本家出现在基蒂霍克,他会把奥维尔射下来,从而为后代做一件大好事。自首次飞行以来,航空业对资本的需求便永无止境。投资者被增长所吸引——本应避之不及——却将真金白银投入无底洞。而我有愧于心的是,1989 年我让伯克希尔购买美国航空优先股,也参与了这场愚蠢之举。我们支票上的墨迹未干,公司便陷入困境,没多久优先股股息就付不出来了。但随后我们走了大运。在航空业反复出现、却总是误入歧途的乐观情绪中,我们竟在 1998 年成功卖出股票,大赚一笔。在我们卖出之后的十年里,这家公司破产了,两次。总而言之,想想三类“储蓄账户”。卓越的账户支付极高的利率,且随着岁月流逝利率还会上升;良好的账户支付诱人的利率,而且新增存款也能赚取同样的回报;最后,糟糕的账户不仅利率低得可怜,还要求你在回报令人失望的情况下不断往里追加资金。
Nevertheless, this business requires a significant reinvestment of earnings if it is to grow. When we purchased FlightSafety in 1996, its pre-tax operating earnings were $111 million, and its net investment in fixed assets was $570 million. Since our purchase, depreciation charges have totaled $923 million. But capital expenditures have totaled $1.635 billion, most of that for simulators to match the new airplane models that are constantly being introduced. (A simulator can cost us more than $12 million, and we have 273 of them.) Our fixed assets, after depreciation, now amount to $1.079 billion. Pre-tax operating earnings in 2007 were $270 million, a gain of $159 million since 1996. That gain gave us a good, but far from See’s-like, return on our incremental investment of $509 million. Consequently, if measured only by economic returns, FlightSafety is an excellent but not extraordinary business. Its put-up-more-to-earn-more experience is that faced by most corporations. For example, our large investment in regulated utilities falls squarely in this category. We will earn considerably more money in this business ten years from now, but we will invest many billions to make it. Now let’s move to the gruesome. The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down. The airline industry’s demand for capital ever since that first flight has been insatiable. Investors have poured money into a bottomless pit, attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it. And I, to my shame, participated in this foolishness when I had Berkshire buy U.S. Air preferred stock in 1989. As the ink was drying on our check, the company went into a tailspin, and before long our preferred dividend was no longer being paid. But we then got very lucky. In one of the recurrent, but always misguided, bursts of optimism for airlines, we were actually able to sell our shares in 1998 for a hefty gain. In the decade following our sale, the company went bankrupt. Twice. To sum up, think of three types of “savings accounts.” The great one pays an extraordinarily high interest rate that will rise as the years pass. The good one pays an attractive rate of interest that will be earned also on deposits that are added. Finally, the gruesome account both pays an inadequate interest rate and requires you to keep adding money at those disappointing returns.
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现在该是坦白的时候了。需要说明的是,没有任何顾问、董事会或投资银行家推动我犯下接下来要讲的那些错误。用网球的术语说,这都是非受迫性失误。首先,我差点搞砸了喜诗糖果的收购。卖家要价 3000 万美元,而我坚持不超过 2500 万美元。幸运的是,他让步了。否则我肯定会退缩,那 13.5 亿美元就会落到别人手里。大约在收购喜诗糖果的同时,当时掌管大都会广播公司的汤姆·墨菲打电话来,提出以 3500 万美元把达拉斯-沃斯堡的 NBC 电视台卖给我。这家电视台随大都会收购的沃斯堡报纸一起打包,根据“跨所有权”规则,墨菲不得不将其剥离。我知道电视台和喜诗糖果类似,几乎不需要资本投入,而且增长前景极佳。它们经营简单,还能给所有者带来滚滚现金。此外,墨菲——当时和现在都一样——是我的挚友,我钦佩他,认为他是非凡的管理者、杰出的人。他对电视业务了如指掌,除非他确信这笔收购稳操胜券,否则不会打电话给我。实际上,墨菲在我耳边低声说“买吧”。但我没有听。
And now it’s confession time. It should be noted that no consultant, board of directors or investment banker pushed me into the mistakes I will describe. In tennis parlance, they were all unforced errors. To begin with, I almost blew the See’s purchase. The seller was asking $30 million, and I was adamant about not going above $25 million. Fortunately, he caved. Otherwise I would have balked, and that $1.35 billion would have gone to somebody else. About the time of the See’s purchase, Tom Murphy, then running Capital Cities Broadcasting, called and offered me the Dallas-Fort Worth NBC station for $35 million. The station came with the Fort Worth paper that Capital Cities was buying, and under the “cross-ownership” rules Murph had to divest it. I knew that TV stations were See’s-like businesses that required virtually no capital investment and had excellent prospects for growth. They were simple to run and showered cash on their owners. Moreover, Murph, then as now, was a close friend, a man I admired as an extraordinary manager and outstanding human being. He knew the television business forward and backward and would not have called me unless he felt a purchase was certain to work. In effect Murph whispered “buy” into my ear. But I didn’t listen.
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2006 年,这家电视台税前赚了 7300 万美元,自打我说不干那桩买卖以来,它的累计盈利已至少达到 10 亿美元——几乎全部可供所有者另作他用。而且,这块资产如今市值约 8 亿美元。我当初为什么说“不”?唯一的解释是,我的脑子当时休假去了,忘了通知我。(我的行为活像莫莉·艾文斯笔下某位政客:“他的智商要是再低点儿,你就得一天给他浇两次水。”)最后,还有一桩更糟的错事,是我对德克斯特说了“是”。1993 年,我花 4.33 亿美元买下这家鞋企,付的是伯克希尔的股票(25203 股 A 类股)。我当初认定的持久竞争优势,没几年就消失得无影无踪。但这只是开头:用伯克希尔的股票来付,我把这个错误放大了无数倍。这一招让伯克希尔股东付出的代价不是 4 亿美元,而是 35 亿美元。说到底,我等于拿一家优秀企业 1.6% 的股份——如今价值 2200 亿美元——去换了一家一文不值的烂企业。到现在为止,德克斯特是我做过最烂的一笔交易。但往后我还会犯更多错——这点你尽管打赌。博比·拜尔那首乡村歌里有句词,正好说明收购中常常发生的事:“我从来没跟丑女人上过床,但醒来时身边确实躺过几个。”
In 2006, the station earned $73 million pre-tax, bringing its total earnings since I turned down the deal to at least $1 billion – almost all available to its owner for other purposes. Moreover, the property now has a capital value of about $800 million. Why did I say “no”? The only explanation is that my brain had gone on vacation and forgot to notify me. (My behavior resembled that of a politician Molly Ivins once described: “If his I.Q. was any lower, you would have to water him twice a day.”) Finally, I made an even worse mistake when I said “yes” to Dexter, a shoe business I bought in 1993 for $433 million in Berkshire stock (25,203 shares of A). What I had assessed as durable competitive advantage vanished within a few years. But that’s just the beginning: By using Berkshire stock, I compounded this error hugely. That move made the cost to Berkshire shareholders not $400 million, but rather $3.5 billion. In essence, I gave away 1.6% of a wonderful business – one now valued at $220 billion – to buy a worthless business. To date, Dexter is the worst deal that I’ve made. But I’ll make more mistakes in the future – you can bet on that. A line from Bobby Bare’s country song explains what too often happens with acquisitions: “I’ve never gone to bed with an ugly woman, but I’ve sure woke up with a few.”
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现在,我们来审视伯克希尔的四大运营板块。每个板块在资产负债表和损益账上有着天壤之别的特性。因此,将它们混为一谈会妨碍分析。所以,我们将把四大板块视为四个独立的企业来呈现,这也是查理和我看待它们的方式。
Now, let’s examine the four major operating sectors of Berkshire. Each sector has vastly different balance sheet and income account characteristics. Therefore, lumping them together impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them.
Insurance
Insurance
本届总统竞选期间我听到的最有意思的段子来自米特·罗姆尼,他问妻子安:“我们年轻时,你做过最疯狂的梦里有没有想过我可能当总统?”她回答:“亲爱的,我做的疯狂梦里可没你。”1967 年我们刚踏入财产/意外险行业时,我做的疯狂梦里也想不到今天的局面。以下是买下国民赔偿公司后头五年的成绩:
The best anecdote I’ve heard during the current presidential campaign came from Mitt Romney, who asked his wife, Ann, “When we were young, did you ever in your wildest dreams think I might be president?” To which she replied, “Honey, you weren’t in my wildest dreams.” When we first entered the property/casualty insurance business in 1967, my wildest dreams did not envision our current operation. Here’s how we did in the first five years after purchasing National
Indemnity:
Indemnity:
Year 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Year 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
承保利润(亏损) 浮存金(百万美元) 0.4 18.5 0.6 21.3 0.1 25.4 (0.4) 39.4 1.4 65.6
Underwriting Profit (Loss) Float (in millions) $ 0.4 $18.5 0.6 21.3 0.1 25.4 (0.4) 39.4 1.4 65.6
说得客气点,我们是起步晚了些。但情况已经改变。以下是过去五年的记录:
To put it charitably, we were a slow starter. But things changed. Here’s the record of the last five
years:
years:
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
承保利润(亏损) 浮存金(百万美元) 1718 万美元 4.422 亿美元 1551 万美元 4.6094 亿美元 53 万美元 4.9287 亿美元 3838 万美元 5.0887 亿美元 3374 万美元 5.8698 亿美元
Underwriting Profit (Loss) Float (in millions) $1,718 $44,220 1,551 46,094 53 49,287 3,838 50,887 3,374 58,698
这一蜕变是由一些卓越的经理人完成的。让我们看看他们各自取得了哪些成就。
This metamorphosis has been accomplished by some extraordinary managers. Let’s look at what each has achieved.
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GEICO 拥有我们所有保险公司中最宽阔的护城河,这条护城河一直由首席执行官托尼·奈斯利精心守护并不断加宽。去年,GEICO 再次在大型汽车保险公司中创下最佳增长纪录,市场份额提升至 7.2%。1995 年伯克希尔取得控股权时,这一份额为 2.5%。并非巧合的是,同期 GEICO 的年度广告支出从 3100 万美元增至 7.51 亿美元。托尼现年 64 岁,18 岁就加入 GEICO。此后的每一天,他都对公司满怀热忱——既为能为客户省钱感到自豪,也为能给员工带来成长机会而骄傲。即便如今销售额已达 120 亿美元,托尼仍觉得 GEICO 才刚起步。我也这么看。这里有些佐证。过去三年,GEICO 在摩托车市场的份额从 2.1% 提升至 6%。我们最近也开始承保全地形车和房车的保单。11 月,我们写下了第一份商业车险保单。GEICO 和国民赔偿公司在商用领域展开合作,初期成果令人鼓舞。即便把这些业务加在一起,它们在个人车险总量中的占比仍很小。不过,它们应该能带来持续增长的承保利润和浮存金。
GEICO possesses the widest moat of any of our insurers, one carefully protected and expanded by Tony Nicely, its CEO. Last year – again – GEICO had the best growth record among major auto insurers, increasing its market share to 7.2%. When Berkshire acquired control in 1995, that share was 2.5%. Not coincidentally, annual ad expenditures by GEICO have increased from $31 million to $751 million during the same period. Tony, now 64, joined GEICO at 18. Every day since, he has been passionate about the company – proud of how it could both save money for its customers and provide growth opportunities for its associates. Even now, with sales at $12 billion, Tony feels GEICO is just getting started. So do I. Here’s some evidence. In the last three years, GEICO has increased its share of the motorcycle market from 2.1% to 6%. We’ve also recently begun writing policies on ATVs and RVs. And in November we wrote our first commercial auto policy. GEICO and National Indemnity are working together in the commercial field, and early results are very encouraging. Even in aggregate, these lines will remain a small fraction of our personal auto volume. Nevertheless, they should deliver a growing stream of underwriting profits and float.
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通用再保险是我们的国际再保险公司,也是“自产”浮存金的最大来源——年末达到 230 亿美元。这项业务如今是伯克希尔的巨大资产。然而,我们的这份家业起步并不顺利。几十年来,通用再保险一直是再保险行业中的蒂芙尼,其承保技术和纪律备受推崇。遗憾的是,这一声誉未能延续其实际支撑,而这一缺陷在我 1998 年决定与通用再保险合并时完全被忽略了。1998 年的通用再保险,已不再像 1968 年或 1978 年那样运作。如今,得益于通用再保险的首席执行官乔·布兰登及其搭档塔德·蒙特罗斯,公司的光彩得以重拾。乔和塔德经营这项业务已有六年,他们以一流的方式开展一流的业务,借用 J.P. 摩根的话来说正是如此。他们恢复了承保、准备金计提和客户筛选方面的纪律。美国国内和海外的遗留问题既费钱又耗时,让他们的工作难上加难。尽管有这些干扰,乔和塔德仍交出了出色的承保成绩,同时巧妙地为公司未来重新定位。
General Re, our international reinsurer, is by far our largest source of “home-grown” float – $23 billion at yearend. This operation is now a huge asset for Berkshire. Our ownership, however, had a shaky start. For decades, General Re was the Tiffany of reinsurers, admired by all for its underwriting skills and discipline. This reputation, unfortunately, outlived its factual underpinnings, a flaw that I completely missed when I made the decision in 1998 to merge with General Re. The General Re of 1998 was not operated as the General Re of 1968 or 1978. Now, thanks to Joe Brandon, General Re’s CEO, and his partner, Tad Montross, the luster of the company has been restored. Joe and Tad have been running the business for six years and have been doing first-class business in a first-class way, to use the words of J. P. Morgan. They have restored discipline to underwriting, reserving and the selection of clients. Their job was made more difficult by costly and time-consuming legacy problems, both in the U.S. and abroad. Despite that diversion, Joe and Tad have delivered excellent underwriting results while skillfully repositioning the company for the future.
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自 1986 年加入伯克希尔以来,阿吉特·贾恩从零起步,打造了一家堪称卓越的 specialty 再保险业务。面对独一无二的大宗交易,全球如今都会向他求助。去年,我详细向各位讲述了 Equitas 向伯克希尔转移巨额但有上限负债的交易,单笔保费达 71 亿美元。时至今日,我们的经验还算不错。但这并不能说明太多,因为这只是五十年甚至更久长河中的一根稻草。不过,我们确信的是,由斯科特·莫泽带领的伦敦团队加入我们,他们是一流的,并已成为我们保险业务的宝贵资产。
Since joining Berkshire in 1986, Ajit Jain has built a truly great specialty reinsurance operation from scratch. For one-of-a-kind mammoth transactions, the world now turns to him. Last year I told you in detail about the Equitas transfer of huge, but capped, liabilities to Berkshire for a single premium of $7.1 billion. At this very early date, our experience has been good. But this doesn’t tell us much because it’s just one straw in a fifty-year-or-more wind. What we know for sure, however, is that the London team who joined us, headed by Scott Moser, is first-rate and has become a valuable asset for our insurance business.
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最后,我们还有一批规模较小的业务,服务于保险市场的特定细分领域。整体来看,这些公司表现极为出色,承保利润高于平均水平,并提供宝贵的浮存金用于投资。去年,由比尔·奥克森领导的 BoatU.S. 加入了这一行列。这家公司管理着一个约 65 万名船主的协会,为他们提供的服务类似于 AAA 汽车俱乐部为驾驶者提供的服务。协会的服务项目之一是船险。如需了解更多,欢迎在股东大会上参观其展台。
Finally, we have our smaller operations, which serve specialized segments of the insurance market. In aggregate, these companies have performed extraordinarily well, earning aboveaverage underwriting profits and delivering valuable float for investment. Last year BoatU.S., headed by Bill Oakerson, was added to the group. This company manages an association of about 650,000 boat owners, providing them services similar to those offered by AAA auto clubs to drivers. Among the association’s offerings is boat insurance. Learn more about this operation by visiting its display at the annual meeting.
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下表列出我们四大财产/意外险业务的业绩记录。 承保利润 保险业务 通用再保险 BH 再保险 GEICO 其他主险业务
Below we show the record of our four categories of property/casualty insurance. Underwriting Profit Insurance Operations General Re ....................... BH Reinsurance ............... GEICO ............................. Other Primary...................
| 承保利润 | (百万) | 年末浮动 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 保险运营 | 2007 | 2006 | 2007 | 2006 |
| 通用再保险公司 | $ 555 | $ 526 | $23,009 | $22,827 |
| BH再保险 | 1,427 | 1,658 | 23,692 | 16,860 |
| GEICO | 1,113 | 1,314 | 7,768 | 7,171 |
| 其他主要业务 | 279 | 340* | 4,229 | 4,029* |
| $3,374 | $3,838 | $58,698 | $50,887 |
| Underwriting Profit | (in millions) | Yearend Float | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Operations | 2007 | 2006 | 2007 | 2006 |
| General Re | $ 555 | $ 526 | $23,009 | $22,827 |
| BH Reinsurance | 1,427 | 1,658 | 23,692 | 16,860 |
| GEICO | 1,113 | 1,314 | 7,768 | 7,171 |
| Other Primary | 279 | 340* | 4,229 | 4,029* |
| $3,374 | $3,838 | $58,698 | $50,887 |
2007 $ 555 1,427 1,113 279 $3,374
2007 $ 555 1,427 1,113 279 $3,374
- 包含自 2006 年 5 月 19 日起的应用承保公司。
- Includes Applied Underwriters from May 19, 2006.
监管公用事业业务
Regulated Utility Business
伯克希尔持有中美能源控股公司 87.4%(摊薄)的权益,该公司旗下拥有多种公用事业业务。其中规模最大的包括:(1)约克郡电力公司和北方电力公司,其 380 万电力客户使其成为英国第三大电力分销商;(2)中美能源公司,主要服务于爱荷华州的 72 万电力客户;(3)太平洋电力公司和落基山电力公司,服务美国西部六个州约 170 万电力客户;(4)克恩河和北方天然气管道,输送美国约 8% 的天然气消费量。我们中美能源的合作伙伴是沃尔特·斯科特,以及两位出色的管理者戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔。各方的表决权多少并不重要;只有当我们一致认为某项重大举措明智时,才会采取行动。与戴夫、格雷格和沃尔特共事八年来,我最初的想法更加坚定:伯克希尔不可能找到更好的合作伙伴了。有点不搭调的是,中美能源还拥有美国第二大房地产经纪公司——美国房屋服务公司。该公司通过 20 家本地品牌的子公司运营,拥有 1.88 万名经纪人。去年是住宅销售低迷的一年,2008 年可能会更慢。不过,在能以合理价格收购优质经纪业务时,我们会继续这样做。
Berkshire has an 87.4% (diluted) interest in MidAmerican Energy Holdings, which owns a wide variety of utility operations. The largest of these are (1) Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric, whose 3.8 million electric customers make it the third largest distributor of electricity in the U.K.; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which serves 720,000 electric customers, primarily in Iowa; (3) Pacific Power and Rocky Mountain Power, serving about 1.7 million electric customers in six western states; and (4) Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines, which carry about 8% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. Our partners in ownership of MidAmerican are Walter Scott, and its two terrific managers, Dave Sokol and Greg Abel. It’s unimportant how many votes each party has; we make major moves only when we are unanimous in thinking them wise. Eight years of working with Dave, Greg and Walter have underscored my original belief: Berkshire couldn’t have better partners. Somewhat incongruously, MidAmerican also owns the second largest real estate brokerage firm in the U.S., HomeServices of America. This company operates through 20 locally-branded firms with 18,800 agents. Last year was a slow year for residential sales, and 2008 will probably be slower. We will continue, however, to acquire quality brokerage operations when they are available at sensible prices.
以下是中美能源公司经营的一些关键数据:
Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operation:
英国公用事业 … 爱荷华州公用事业 … 西部公用事业(2006 年 3 月 21 日收购) … 管道业务 … 房屋服务公司 … 其他(净额) … 公司利息与税前利润 … 除伯克希尔以外的利息 … 伯克希尔次级债务利息 … 所得税 … 净利润 … 归属于伯克希尔的利润* … 欠他人的债务 … 欠伯克希尔的债务 …
U.K. utilities ....................................................................................................... Iowa utility ......................................................................................................... Western utilities (acquired March 21, 2006) ..................................................... Pipelines ............................................................................................................. HomeServices..................................................................................................... Other (net) .......................................................................................................... Earnings before corporate interest and taxes ...................................................... Interest, other than to Berkshire ......................................................................... Interest on Berkshire junior debt ........................................................................ Income tax .......................................................................................................... Net earnings........................................................................................................ Earnings applicable to Berkshire* ...................................................................... Debt owed to others............................................................................................ Debt owed to Berkshire ......................................................................................
| 英国公用事业 | 收益(百万美元)2007年 337美元 | 2006 $ 338 |
|---|---|---|
| 爱荷华公用事业 | 412 | 348 |
| Western utilities (acquired March 21, 2006) | 692 | 356 |
| 管道 | 473 | 376 |
| 家居服务 | 42 | 74 |
| 其他(净额) | 130 | 245 |
| 公司利息和税前利润 | 2,086 | 1,737 |
| 除伯克希尔以外的利息 | (312) | (261) |
| 伯克希尔次级债务利息 | (108) | (134) |
| 所得税 | (477) | (426) |
| 净利润 | $ 1,189 | $ 916 |
| 归属于伯克希尔的收益* | $ 1,114 | $ 885 |
| 欠他人的债务 | 19,002 | 16,946 |
| 欠伯克希尔的债务 | 821 | 1,055 |
| U.K. utilities | Earnings (in millions) 2007 $ 337 | 2006 $ 338 |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa utility | 412 | 348 |
| Western utilities (acquired March 21, 2006) | 692 | 356 |
| Pipelines | 473 | 376 |
| HomeServices | 42 | 74 |
| Other (net) | 130 | 245 |
| Earnings before corporate interest and taxes | 2,086 | 1,737 |
| Interest, other than to Berkshire | (312) | (261) |
| Interest on Berkshire junior debt | (108) | (134) |
| Income tax | (477) | (426) |
| Net earnings | $ 1,189 | $ 916 |
| Earnings applicable to Berkshire* | $ 1,114 | $ 885 |
| Debt owed to others | 19,002 | 16,946 |
| Debt owed to Berkshire | 821 | 1,055 |
$ 885 16,946 1,055
$ 885 16,946 1,055
*包括伯克希尔所获得的利息收入(扣除相关所得税后),2007 年为 70 美元,2006 年为 87 美元。
*Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $70 in 2007 and $87 in 2006.
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1999 年,我们同意以每股 35.05 美元的价格收购中美能源公司 35,464,337 股股票,那一年它的每股收益为 2.59 美元。为什么是这个奇怪的数字 35.05 美元?我最初认定,这家公司对伯克希尔而言每股值 35 美元。要知道,我是个“一口价”的人(还记得喜诗糖果吗?),中美能源的投行代表们花了好几天都没能让我提高伯克希尔的报价。但最终,他们逮住了我意志薄弱的时刻,我松口了,告诉他们我愿意出到 35.05 美元。我说,这样一来,他们就能跟客户交代,说已经从我身上榨出了最后一枚镍币。当时,这让我有点肉疼。后来,2002 年,伯克希尔以每股 60 美元的价格购入 6,700,000 股,为收购我们的一条管道提供资金。最后,2006 年,中美能源收购太平洋电力公司时,我们以每股 145 美元的价格买入了 23,268,793 股。2007 年,中美能源每股收益为 15.78 美元。不过,其中 77 美分是一次性项目——英国子公司因英国企业税率下调而减少的递延所得税。所以,正常化后的每股收益应为 15.01 美元。是的,我很庆幸自己当时软了下来,多掏了那枚镍币。
We agreed to purchase 35,464,337 shares of MidAmerican at $35.05 per share in 1999, a year in which its per-share earnings were $2.59. Why the odd figure of $35.05? I originally decided the business was worth $35.00 per share to Berkshire. Now, I’m a “one-price” guy (remember See’s?) and for several days the investment bankers representing MidAmerican had no luck in getting me to increase Berkshire’s offer. But, finally, they caught me in a moment of weakness, and I caved, telling them I would go to $35.05. With that, I explained, they could tell their client they had wrung the last nickel out of me. At the time, it hurt. Later on, in 2002, Berkshire purchased 6,700,000 shares at $60 to help finance the acquisition of one of our pipelines. Lastly, in 2006, when MidAmerican bought PacifiCorp, we purchased 23,268,793 shares at $145 per share. In 2007, MidAmerican earned $15.78 per share. However, 77¢ of that was non-recurring – a reduction in deferred tax at our British utility, resulting from a lowering of the U.K. corporate tax rate. So call normalized earnings $15.01 per share. And yes, I’m glad I wilted and offered the extra nickel.
制造业、服务业与零售业运营
Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations
我们在伯克希尔的这部分业务活动覆盖了各行各业。不过,还是先来看看整个集团的总资产负债表和损益表。资产负债表(截至 2007 年 12 月 31 日)(单位:百万美元)
Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/07 (in millions)
Assets
Assets
- 现金及等价物
- 应收账款及票据
- 存货
- 其他流动资产
- 流动资产合计
- 商誉及其他无形资产
- 固定资产
- 其他资产
Cash and equivalents .............................. Accounts and notes receivable ............... Inventory ................................................ Other current assets ................................ Total current assets ................................. Goodwill and other intangibles............... Fixed assets............................................. Other assets.............................................
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
$ 2,080 4,488 5,793 470 12,831 14,201 9,605 1,685 $38,322
$ 2,080 4,488 5,793 470 12,831 14,201 9,605 1,685 $38,322
负债与权益 应付票据 … 其他流动负债 … 流动负债合计 …
Liabilities and Equity Notes payable ............................ Other current liabilities.............. Total current liabilities ..............
递延所得税… 定期债务及其他负债… 净资产…
Deferred taxes............................ Term debt and other liabilities... Equity ........................................
利润表(单位:百万美元) 2007 年 收入 …59,100 美元 营业费用(包括 2007 年折旧 955 美元、2006 年折旧 823 美元、2005 年折旧 699 美元)…55,026 美元 利息费用 …127 美元 税前利润 …3,947 美元* 1,594 美元 所得税与少数股东权益 … 净利润 …2,353 美元
Earnings Statement (in millions) 2007 Revenues .................................................................................... $59,100 Operating expenses (including depreciation of $955 in 2007, $823 in 2006 and $699 in 2005).......................................... 55,026 Interest expense .......................................................................... 127 Pre-tax earnings.......................................................................... 3,947* 1,594 Income taxes and minority interests ........................................... Net income ................................................................................. $ 2,353
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
$ 1,278 7,652 8,930 828 3,079 25,485 $38,322 2006 $52,660 2005 $46,896 49,002 132 3,526* 1,395 $ 2,131 44,190 83 2,623* 977 $ 1,646
$ 1,278 7,652 8,930 828 3,079 25,485 $38,322 2006 $52,660 2005 $46,896 49,002 132 3,526* 1,395 $ 2,131 44,190 83 2,623* 977 $ 1,646
*不包括收购会计调整。这群五花八门的公司,从棒棒糖到房车无所不卖,去年平均有形净资产回报率达 23%,令人满意。同样值得注意的是,这些业务在获取上述回报时仅使用了很小的财务杠杆。显然,我们拥有一些极好的企业。不过,我们收购其中许多企业时,价格相对净资产有较大溢价——这一情况体现在资产负债表中的商誉项目上——这一事实将我们平均账面价值的收益率拉低至 9.8%。
*Does not include purchase-accounting adjustments. This motley group, which sells products ranging from lollipops to motor homes, earned a pleasing 23% on average tangible net worth last year. It’s noteworthy also that these operations used only minor financial leverage in achieving that return. Clearly we own some terrific businesses. We purchased many of them, however, at large premiums to net worth – a point reflected in the goodwill item shown on the balance sheet – and that fact reduces the earnings on our average carrying value to 9.8%.
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以下是该行业几家公司的一些值得报道的消息:
Here are a few newsworthy items about companies in this sector:
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肖氏地毯、阿克米砖业、约翰斯·曼维尔公司和米泰克公司在 2007 年都因房地产市场的急剧下滑而受到重创,其税前利润分别下降 27%、41%、38% 和 9%。总体来看,这些公司实现税前利润 9.41 亿美元,而 2006 年为 12.96 亿美元。去年,肖氏地毯、米泰克公司和阿克米砖业都签约了有助于未来盈利的补强性收购项目。你可以放心,它们还会继续寻找更多这样的机会。
Shaw, Acme Brick, Johns Manville and MiTek were all hurt in 2007 by the sharp housing downturn, with their pre-tax earnings declining 27%, 41%, 38%, and 9% respectively. Overall, these companies earned $941 million pre-tax compared to $1.296 billion in 2006. Last year, Shaw, MiTek and Acme contracted for tuck-in acquisitions that will help future earnings. You can be sure they will be looking for more of these.
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零售业艰难的年份里,我们的佼佼者是喜诗糖果、博尔斯海姆珠宝和内布拉斯加家具城。两年前,布拉德·金斯特勒出任喜诗糖果的首席执行官。在伯克希尔,我们很少把经理人从一个行业调到另一个行业。但布拉德是个例外,他之前管理过我们的制服公司费希默公司和塞浦路斯保险公司。这次调动效果再好不过了。在他任职的两年里,喜诗的利润增长了 50% 以上。博尔斯海姆的销售额增长了 15.1%,其中股东周末期间增长了 27%。两年前,苏珊·雅克建议我们翻新并扩建门店。我当时持怀疑态度,但苏珊是对的。苏珊 25 年前以每小时 4 美元的销售员身份来到博尔斯海姆。虽然她缺乏管理背景,但我在 1994 年毫不犹豫地让她出任首席执行官。她聪明,热爱这份事业,也热爱她的同事。这任何时候都比一张 MBA 文凭强。(顺便说一句:查理和我对大篇幅简历不太买账。我们看重的是头脑、热情和诚信。我们另一位出色的经理人是凯西·巴伦·塔姆拉兹,自从 2006 年初我们收购美国商业资讯以来,她大幅提升了公司的盈利。她是老板梦寐以求的人才。挡在凯西和生意机会之间,那是相当危险的。值得一提的是,凯西的职业生涯是从出租车司机起步的。)最后,在内布拉斯加家具城,由于奥马哈和堪萨斯城两家门店的销售额各约 4 亿美元,盈利创下纪录。这两家店毫无疑问是全美排名前两位的家居用品店。在许多家具零售商遭遇灾难性的一年里,堪萨斯城门店的销售额增长了 8%,奥马哈门店增长了 6%。这一成绩要归功于杰出的布拉姆金兄弟,罗恩和欧文。两人都是我的私交好友,也是了不起的商人。
In a tough year for retailing, our standouts were See’s, Borsheims and Nebraska Furniture Mart. Two years ago Brad Kinstler was made CEO of See’s. We very seldom move managers from one industry to another at Berkshire. But we made an exception with Brad, who had previously run our uniform company, Fechheimer, and Cypress Insurance. The move could not have worked out better. In his two years, profits at See’s have increased more than 50%. At Borsheims, sales increased 15.1%, helped by a 27% gain during Shareholder Weekend. Two years ago, Susan Jacques suggested that we remodel and expand the store. I was skeptical, but Susan was right. Susan came to Borsheims 25 years ago as a $4-an-hour saleswoman. Though she lacked a managerial background, I did not hesitate to make her CEO in 1994. She’s smart, she loves the business, and she loves her associates. That beats having an MBA degree any time. (An aside: Charlie and I are not big fans of resumes. Instead, we focus on brains, passion and integrity. Another of our great managers is Cathy Baron Tamraz, who has significantly increased Business Wire’s earnings since we purchased it early in 2006. She is an owner’s dream. It is positively dangerous to stand between Cathy and a business prospect. Cathy, it should be noted, began her career as a cab driver.) Finally, at Nebraska Furniture Mart, earnings hit a record as our Omaha and Kansas City stores each had sales of about $400 million. These, by some margin, are the two top home furnishings stores in the country. In a disastrous year for many furniture retailers, sales at Kansas City increased 8%, while in Omaha the gain was 6%. Credit the remarkable Blumkin brothers, Ron and Irv, for this performance. Both are close personal friends of mine and great businessmen.
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伊斯卡公司继续走着它那条令人惊叹的发展道路。它的产品是小型碳化钨切削刀具,能让庞大且昂贵的机床效率大幅提升。碳化钨的原料是钨,主要从中国开采。几十年来,伊斯卡将钨运往以色列,在那里,智慧将钨变成了价值高得多的东西。2007 年底,伊斯卡在中国大连开设了一家大型工厂。实际上,我们现在已经把智慧带到了钨的产地。伊斯卡面前有巨大的增长机遇。由伊坦·韦特海默、雅各布·哈帕斯和丹尼·戈德曼领导的管理团队,必然会充分利用这些机遇。
Iscar continues its wondrous ways. Its products are small carbide cutting tools that make large and very expensive machine tools more productive. The raw material for carbide is tungsten, mined in China. For many decades, Iscar moved tungsten to Israel, where brains turned it into something far more valuable. Late in 2007, Iscar opened a large plant in Dalian, China. In effect, we’ve now moved the brains to the tungsten. Major opportunities for growth await Iscar. Its management team, led by Eitan Wertheimer, Jacob Harpaz, and Danny Goldman, is certain to make the most of them.
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2007 年,飞行服务创下纪录,税前利润增长 49%,达到 5.47 亿美元。全球公务航空业迎来了极不寻常的一年,我们旗下的两家公司——作为各自领域的遥遥领先者——也充分分享了这一盛况。飞安国际,我们的飞行员培训业务,营收增长 14%,税前利润增长 20%。我们估计,美国约 58% 的公司飞行员由我们培训。公司首席执行官布鲁斯·惠特曼于 2003 年从先进飞行培训之父阿尔·尤尔茨基手中接过这一领导地位,事实证明,他是当之无愧的接班人。
Flight services set a record in 2007 with pre-tax earnings increasing 49% to $547 million. Corporate aviation had an extraordinary year worldwide, and both of our companies – as runaway leaders in their fields – fully participated. FlightSafety, our pilot training business, gained 14% in revenues and 20% in pre-tax earnings. We estimate that we train about 58% of U.S. corporate pilots. Bruce Whitman, the company’s CEO, inherited this leadership position in 2003 from Al Ueltschi, the father of advanced flight training, and has proved to be a worthy successor.
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在 NetJets 公务航空,这家飞机分时所有权模式的发明者,我们依然是无可争议的领跑者。如今我们在美国运营 487 架飞机,在欧洲运营 135 架,机队规模是三大主要竞争对手总和的两倍多。由于我们在大型客舱市场的份额接近 90%,按价值计算的领先优势更为显著。NetJets 品牌——以安全、服务和保障为承诺——每年都在不断壮大。这背后是理查德·桑图利一个人的热情。如果你要挑一个人一起蹲战壕,没有比里奇更合适的了。无论障碍多大,他就是不停步。欧洲是里奇坚韧不拔最终带来成功的最好例证。头十年我们在那里几乎没什么财务进展,累计亏损高达 2.12 亿美元。但里奇把马克·布斯招来负责欧洲业务后,我们开始有了起色。现在势头真正起来了,去年利润翻了三倍。11 月,我们的董事在哥伦布的 NetJets 总部开会,亲眼看了看那里的精密运作。无论什么天气,这里每天要负责约 1000 个航班,客户期待的是顶级服务。董事们离开时对设施及其能力印象深刻——但更让他们折服的是里奇和他的团队。
At NetJets, the inventor of fractional-ownership of jets, we also remain the unchallenged leader. We now operate 487 planes in the U.S. and 135 in Europe, a fleet more than twice the size of that operated by our three major competitors combined. Because our share of the large-cabin market is near 90%, our lead in value terms is far greater. The NetJets brand – with its promise of safety, service and security – grows stronger every year. Behind this is the passion of one man, Richard Santulli. If you were to pick someone to join you in a foxhole, you couldn’t do better than Rich. No matter what the obstacles, he just doesn’t stop. Europe is the best example of how Rich’s tenacity leads to success. For the first ten years we made little financial progress there, actually running up cumulative losses of $212 million. After Rich brought Mark Booth on board to run Europe, however, we began to gain traction. Now we have real momentum, and last year earnings tripled. In November, our directors met at NetJets headquarters in Columbus and got a look at the sophisticated operation there. It is responsible for 1,000 or so flights a day in all kinds of weather, with customers expecting top-notch service. Our directors came away impressed by the facility and its capabilities – but even more impressed by Rich and his associates.
金融与金融产品
Finance and Finance Products
我们在这一类别中的主要业务是克莱顿住宅公司,美国最大的活动房屋制造商和销售商。克莱顿的市场份额去年达到了创纪录的 31%。但行业规模仍在萎缩:去年,活动房屋销量为 9.6 万套,低于 2003 年我们收购克莱顿时的 13.1 万套。(当时,应记得,一些评论员批评其董事在周期性底部出售。)尽管克莱顿从制造和零售房屋两方面都赚取利润,但其大部分收益来自一个 110 亿美元的贷款组合,覆盖 30 万名借款人。这就是为什么我们将克莱顿的业务纳入这个金融板块。尽管 2007 年房地产金融领域出现了许多问题,克莱顿的投资组合表现仍然良好。当年的逾期、止赎和损失率与我们此前拥有期间的水平相当。克莱顿的贷款组合由伯克希尔提供资金。为此,我们向克莱顿收取比伯克希尔借款成本高一个百分点的费用——去年这笔费用总计 8500 万美元。克莱顿 2007 年的税前收益为 5.26 亿美元,这是在支付这笔费用之后的结果。这笔交易的另一面是,伯克希尔将 8500 万美元记为收入,该收入包含在下表的“其他”项中。
Our major operation in this category is Clayton Homes, the largest U.S. manufacturer and marketer of manufactured homes. Clayton’s market share hit a record 31% last year. But industry volume continues to shrink: Last year, manufactured home sales were 96,000, down from 131,000 in 2003, the year we bought Clayton. (At the time, it should be remembered, some commentators criticized its directors for selling at a cyclical bottom.) Though Clayton earns money from both manufacturing and retailing its homes, most of its earnings come from an $11 billion loan portfolio, covering 300,000 borrowers. That’s why we include Clayton’s operation in this finance section. Despite the many problems that surfaced during 2007 in real estate finance, the Clayton portfolio is performing well. Delinquencies, foreclosures and losses during the year were at rates similar to those we experienced in our previous years of ownership. Clayton’s loan portfolio is financed by Berkshire. For this funding, we charge Clayton one percentage point over Berkshire’s borrowing cost – a fee that amounted to $85 million last year. Clayton’s 2007 pre-tax earnings of $526 million are after its paying this fee. The flip side of this transaction is that Berkshire recorded $85 million as income, which is included in “other” in the following table.
交易业务——普通收入… 寿险与年金业务 … 租赁业务 … 预制住宅融资(克莱顿)… 其他… 资本利得前收益… 交易业务——资本利得 …
Trading – ordinary income............................. Life and annuity operation ............................ Leasing operations ........................................ Manufactured-housing finance (Clayton)....... Other............................................................... Income before capital gains............................ Trading – capital gains ..................................
| 税前收益(百万) | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2006 | |
| 交易——普通收入 | $ 272 | $ 274 |
| 寿险及年金业务 | (60) | 29 |
| 租赁业务 | 111 | 182 |
| 制造住房金融(Clayton) | 526 | 513 |
| 其他 | 157 | 159 |
| 资本利得前收入 | 1,006 | 1,157 |
| 交易——资本利得 | 105 | 938 |
| $1,111 | $2,095 |
| Pre-Tax Earnings (in millions) | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2006 | |
| Trading – ordinary income | $ 272 | $ 274 |
| Life and annuity operation | (60) | 29 |
| Leasing operations | 111 | 182 |
| Manufactured-housing finance (Clayton) | 526 | 513 |
| Other | 157 | 159 |
| Income before capital gains | 1,006 | 1,157 |
| Trading – capital gains | 105 | 938 |
| $1,111 | $2,095 |
表中列出的租赁业务为 XTRA,主营拖车租赁,以及 CORT,主营家具租赁。2007 年,拖车利用率大幅下降,导致 XTRA 盈利下滑。该公司去年还借入 4 亿美元,并将所得资金分配给伯克希尔。由此增加的利息支出进一步压低了 XTRA 的盈利。
The leasing operations tabulated are XTRA, which rents trailers, and CORT, which rents furniture. Utilization of trailers was down considerably in 2007 and that led to a drop in earnings at XTRA. That company also borrowed $400 million last year and distributed the proceeds to Berkshire. The resulting higher interest it is now paying further reduced XTRA’s earnings.
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克莱顿、XTRA 和 CORT 都是优质企业,分别由凯文·克莱顿、比尔·弗朗茨和保罗·阿诺德能力出众地管理。在伯克希尔持股期间,这三家公司都进行过补强型收购。未来还会有更多。
Clayton, XTRA and CORT are all good businesses, very ably run by Kevin Clayton, Bill Franz and Paul Arnold. Each has made tuck-in acquisitions during Berkshire’s ownership. More will come.
Investments
Investments
我们在下文中列出了年末的普通股投资,细分了市值至少 6 亿美元的持股。
We show below our common stock investments at yearend, itemizing those with a market value of at least $600 million.
12/31/07
12/31/07
持有公司股份比例
Percentage of Company Owned
Shares
Shares
Company
Company
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
151,610,700 35,563,200 60,828,818 200,000,000 17,508,700 64,271,948 124,393,800 48,000,000 3,486,006 101,472,000 17,170,953 227,307,000 75,176,026 17,072,192 19,944,300 1,727,765 303,407,068 1,724,200
151,610,700 35,563,200 60,828,818 200,000,000 17,508,700 64,271,948 124,393,800 48,000,000 3,486,006 101,472,000 17,170,953 227,307,000 75,176,026 17,072,192 19,944,300 1,727,765 303,407,068 1,724,200
| 美国运通公司 |
| 安海斯-布希公司 |
| 伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司 |
| 可口可乐公司 |
| 康菲石油公司 |
| 强生公司 |
| 卡夫食品公司 |
| 穆迪公司 |
| POSCO |
| 宝洁公司 |
| 赛诺菲-安万特 |
| 特易购公司 |
| 美国合众银行 |
| USG 公司 |
| 沃尔玛百货公司 |
| 《华盛顿邮报》公司 |
| 富国银行 |
| 白山保险集团 |
| 其他 |
| 普通股总计 |
American Express Company ................... Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc............. Burlington Northern Santa Fe.................. The Coca-Cola Company ........................ Conoco Phillips ....................................... Johnson & Johnson.................................. Kraft Foods Inc........................................ Moody’s Corporation .............................. POSCO .................................................... The Procter & Gamble Company ............ Sanofi-Aventis......................................... Tesco plc.................................................. U.S. Bancorp ........................................... USG Corp ................................................ Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. .............................. The Washington Post Company .............. Wells Fargo & Company......................... White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. .. Others ...................................................... Total Common Stocks .............................
| 151,610,700 | 美国运通公司 | 13.1 | $ 1,287 | $ 7,887 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35,563,200 | 安海斯-布希公司 | 4.8 | 1,718 | 1,861 |
| 60,828,818 | 伯灵顿北方圣菲铁路公司 | 17.5 | 4,731 | 5,063 |
| 200,000,000 | 可口可乐公司 | 8.6 | 1,299 | 12,274 |
| 17,508,700 | 康菲石油 | 1.1 | 1,039 | 1,546 |
| 64,271,948 | 强生公司 | 2.2 | 3,943 | 4,287 |
| 124,393,800 | 卡夫食品公司 | 8.1 | 4,152 | 4,059 |
| 48,000,000 | 穆迪公司 | 19.1 | 499 | 1,714 |
| 3,486,006 | POSCO | 4.5 | 572 | 2,136 |
| 101,472,000 | 宝洁公司 | 3.3 | 1,030 | 7,450 |
| 17,170,953 | 赛诺菲安万特 | 1.3 | 1,466 | 1,575 |
| 227,307,000 | 乐购公司 | 2.9 | 1,326 | 2,156 |
| 75,176,026 | 美国合众银行 | 4.4 | 2,417 | 2,386 |
| 17,072,192 | USG Corp | 17.2 | 536 | 611 |
| 19,944,300 | 沃尔玛百货公司 | 0.5 | 942 | 948 |
| 1,727,765 | 《华盛顿邮报》公司 | 18.2 | 11 | 1,367 |
| 303,407,068 | 富国银行公司 | 9.2 | 6,677 | 9,160 |
| 1,724,200 | 白山保险集团有限公司 | 16.3 | 369 | 886 |
| 其他 | 5,238 | 7,633 | ||
| 普通股总计 | $39,252 | $74,999 |
| 151,610,700 | American Express Company | 13.1 | $ 1,287 | $ 7,887 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35,563,200 | Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc | 4.8 | 1,718 | 1,861 |
| 60,828,818 | Burlington Northern Santa Fe | 17.5 | 4,731 | 5,063 |
| 200,000,000 | The Coca-Cola Company | 8.6 | 1,299 | 12,274 |
| 17,508,700 | Conoco Phillips | 1.1 | 1,039 | 1,546 |
| 64,271,948 | Johnson & Johnson | 2.2 | 3,943 | 4,287 |
| 124,393,800 | Kraft Foods Inc | 8.1 | 4,152 | 4,059 |
| 48,000,000 | Moody’s Corporation | 19.1 | 499 | 1,714 |
| 3,486,006 | POSCO | 4.5 | 572 | 2,136 |
| 101,472,000 | The Procter & Gamble Company | 3.3 | 1,030 | 7,450 |
| 17,170,953 | Sanofi-Aventis | 1.3 | 1,466 | 1,575 |
| 227,307,000 | Tesco plc | 2.9 | 1,326 | 2,156 |
| 75,176,026 | U.S. Bancorp | 4.4 | 2,417 | 2,386 |
| 17,072,192 | USG Corp | 17.2 | 536 | 611 |
| 19,944,300 | Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. | 0.5 | 942 | 948 |
| 1,727,765 | The Washington Post Company | 18.2 | 11 | 1,367 |
| 303,407,068 | Wells Fargo & Company | 9.2 | 6,677 | 9,160 |
| 1,724,200 | White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd. .. | 16.3 | 369 | 886 |
| Others | 5,238 | 7,633 | ||
| Total Common Stocks | $39,252 | $74,999 |
*这是我们实际的购买价格,也是我们的税基;GAAP“成本”因必须进行的调增或调减而在某些情况下有所不同。总体而言,我们对所投资企业的经营表现感到欣慰。2007 年,我们四大重仓股中的三家——美国运通、可口可乐和宝洁——每股收益分别增长了 12%、14% 和 14%。第四家富国银行,因房地产泡沫破裂,收益略有下滑。尽管如此,我相信其内在价值有所提升,即便幅度不大。说来也奇,美国运通和富国银行分别由亨利·韦尔斯和威廉·法戈创立,前者在 1850 年,后者在 1852 年。宝洁和可口可乐则分别始于 1837 年和 1886 年。初创企业不是我们的菜。我要强调,我们不按某一年市场价格的变动来衡量投资进展,而是用评估自己旗下企业的方法来评判它们。第一项测试是盈利改善,并适当考虑行业环境因素。第二项测试更为主观:看它们的“护城河”——即让竞争对手难以立足的自身优势——是否在这一年中加宽了。四大重仓股在这项测试中均获得了正面评价。
*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. Overall, we are delighted by the business performance of our investees. In 2007, American Express, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, three of our four largest holdings, increased per-share earnings by 12%, 14% and 14%. The fourth, Wells Fargo, had a small decline in earnings because of the popping of the real estate bubble. Nevertheless, I believe its intrinsic value increased, even if only by a minor amount. In the strange world department, note that American Express and Wells Fargo were both organized by Henry Wells and William Fargo, Amex in 1850 and Wells in 1852. P&G and Coke began business in 1837 and 1886 respectively. Start-ups are not our game. I should emphasize that we do not measure the progress of our investments by what their market prices do during any given year. Rather, we evaluate their performance by the two methods we apply to the businesses we own. The first test is improvement in earnings, with our making due allowance for industry conditions. The second test, more subjective, is whether their “moats” – a metaphor for the superiorities they possess that make life difficult for their competitors – have widened during the year. All of the “big four” scored positively on that test.
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去年我们完成了一笔大额卖出。2002 年和 2003 年,伯克希尔以 4.88 亿美元买入了中石油 1.3% 的股份,按这一价格计算,整个公司估值约为 370 亿美元。当时,查理和我认为该公司的价值大约在 1000 亿美元。到 2007 年,两个因素大幅提升了它的价值:油价显著攀升,以及中石油管理层在油气储备建设方面做得出色。去年下半年,该公司的市值升至 2750 亿美元,与其他大型石油公司相比,这差不多是我们认为它应有的价值。因此,我们以 40 亿美元的价格卖出全部持股。附注一点:我们为中石油的投资收益向美国国税局支付了 12 亿美元的税款。这笔钱足以支付美国政府约四个小时的全部开支——包括国防、社会保障,凡你所想,无所不包。
We made one large sale last year. In 2002 and 2003 Berkshire bought 1.3% of PetroChina for $488 million, a price that valued the entire business at about $37 billion. Charlie and I then felt that the company was worth about $100 billion. By 2007, two factors had materially increased its value: the price of oil had climbed significantly, and PetroChina’s management had done a great job in building oil and gas reserves. In the second half of last year, the market value of the company rose to $275 billion, about what we thought it was worth compared to other giant oil companies. So we sold our holdings for $4 billion. A footnote: We paid the IRS tax of $1.2 billion on our PetroChina gain. This sum paid all costs of the U.S. government – defense, social security, you name it – for about four hours.
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去年我告诉过你们,伯克希尔手里有 62 份由我亲自管理的衍生品合约。(通用再保险的遗留账目里还剩下少量。)到今天,这类合约增加到 94 份,分成两类。第一类是我们签出的 54 份合约,规定如果某些高收益指数里包含的债券出现违约,我们就得赔付。这些合约的到期日从 2009 年到 2013 年不等。年底时,我们已收到 32 亿美元保费,赔付了 4.72 亿美元损失;在最坏情况下(虽然这几乎不可能发生)还可能再赔 47 亿美元。未来肯定还会继续赔付。但我相信,单靠保费收入,这些合约最终会有盈利,更别提我们拿着大笔资金还能赚取的收益。年底时,这项风险敞口计提的负债是 18 亿美元,计入资产负债表上的“衍生品合约负债”项。第二类合约是我们卖出的多种看跌期权,挂钩四个股票指数(标普 500 指数加上三个海外指数)。这些看跌期权的期限原本是 15 年或 20 年,行权价按签约时的市场水平设定。我们已收到 45 亿美元保费,年底入账的负债是 46 亿美元。这些合约里的看跌期权只有到期日才能行权,到期日分布在 2019 年到 2027 年之间,而且只有当对应指数在到期日的报价低于签出期权那天的水平时,伯克希尔才需要付款。我同样认为,这些合约总体会盈利,而且在这 15 年或 20 年期间,我们用持有的保费去投资,还能获得可观收入。我们的衍生品合约有两个方面特别重要。第一,所有情况下钱都握在我们手里,这意味着我们没有任何交易对手风险。第二,衍生品合约的会计规则和投资组合适用的规则不一样。投资组合里,价值变动计入伯克希尔资产负债表上的净资产,除非我们卖出(或减记)某笔持仓,否则不影响利润。但衍生品合约的价值变动,每个季度都必须计入利润。这样一来,我们的衍生品仓位有时会造成报告利润大幅波动,哪怕查理和我认为这些仓位的内在价值几乎没变。我俩不会被这种波动困扰——哪怕一个季度波动个 10 亿美元以上也完全可能——希望你们也别被困扰。你们还记得,在巨灾保险业务上,我们一贯愿意用短期报告利润的更大波动,去换取长期净资产的更大增长。衍生品业务上,我们也是这个哲学。
Last year I told you that Berkshire had 62 derivative contracts that I manage. (We also have a few left in the General Re runoff book.) Today, we have 94 of these, and they fall into two categories. First, we have written 54 contracts that require us to make payments if certain bonds that are included in various high-yield indices default. These contracts expire at various times from 2009 to 2013. At yearend we had received $3.2 billion in premiums on these contracts; had paid $472 million in losses; and in the worst case (though it is extremely unlikely to occur) could be required to pay an additional $4.7 billion. We are certain to make many more payments. But I believe that on premium revenues alone, these contracts will prove profitable, leaving aside what we can earn on the large sums we hold. Our yearend liability for this exposure was recorded at $1.8 billion and is included in “Derivative Contract Liabilities” on our balance sheet. The second category of contracts involves various put options we have sold on four stock indices (the S&P 500 plus three foreign indices). These puts had original terms of either 15 or 20 years and were struck at the market. We have received premiums of $4.5 billion, and we recorded a liability at yearend of $4.6 billion. The puts in these contracts are exercisable only at their expiration dates, which occur between 2019 and 2027, and Berkshire will then need to make a payment only if the index in question is quoted at a level below that existing on the day that the put was written. Again, I believe these contracts, in aggregate, will be profitable and that we will, in addition, receive substantial income from our investment of the premiums we hold during the 15- or 20-year period. Two aspects of our derivative contracts are particularly important. First, in all cases we hold the money, which means that we have no counterparty risk. Second, accounting rules for our derivative contracts differ from those applying to our investment portfolio. In that portfolio, changes in value are applied to the net worth shown on Berkshire’s balance sheet, but do not affect earnings unless we sell (or write down) a holding. Changes in the value of a derivative contract, however, must be applied each quarter to earnings. Thus, our derivative positions will sometimes cause large swings in reported earnings, even though Charlie and I might believe the intrinsic value of these positions has changed little. He and I will not be bothered by these swings – even though they could easily amount to $1 billion or more in a quarter – and we hope you won’t be either. You will recall that in our catastrophe insurance business, we are always ready to trade increased volatility in reported earnings in the short run for greater gains in net worth in the long run. That is our philosophy in derivatives as well.
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2007 年,美元兑主要货币进一步走弱,原因并不神秘:美国人喜爱购买别处制造的产品,超出了世界其他地区对美国产品的兴趣。这不可避免地导致美国每天向世界其他地区输送约 20 亿美元的欠条和资产。随着时间推移,这给美元带来了压力。
The U.S. dollar weakened further in 2007 against major currencies, and it’s no mystery why: Americans like buying products made elsewhere more than the rest of the world likes buying products made in the U.S. Inevitably, that causes America to ship about $2 billion of IOUs and assets daily to the rest of the world. And over time, that puts pressure on the dollar.
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美元下跌,一方面让外国人买我们的产品更便宜,另一方面让美国人买他们的产品更贵。所以按理说,货币贬值应该能治好贸易逆差。确实,美元大幅贬值无疑缓和了美国的逆差。但琢磨一下这事:2002 年欧元平均兑 94.6 美分,我们对德国(第五大贸易伙伴)的贸易逆差是 360 亿美元;而 2007 年欧元平均兑 1.37 美元,我们对德国的逆差反而涨到 450 亿美元。同样,加元在 2002 年平均兑 64 美分,2007 年兑 93 美分。可我们对加拿大的逆差也扩大了,从 2002 年的 500 亿美元涨到 2007 年的 640 亿美元。至少到目前为止,美元大跌对平衡我们的贸易活动没起多大作用。最近关于主权财富基金、以及它们如何大举收购美国企业股份的讨论很多。这是我们自己造成的,不是什么外国政府的阴谋。我们的贸易方程式注定了外国资本大量涌入美国。当我们每天硬塞给全世界 20 亿美元时,他们总得在这边买点什么。他们选股票而不是债券,我们凭什么抱怨?我们国家的货币走弱,不是欧佩克、中国等国家的错。其他发达国家也跟我们一样依赖进口石油、跟中国进口商品竞争。在制定明智的贸易政策时,美国不应该挑出某个国家来惩罚,也不该挑出某个行业来保护。我们也不该采取可能引发报复性行动的做法,那会减少美国的出口——那种对美国和全世界都有利的真正贸易。不过,我们的立法者应该认识到,眼下的失衡不可持续,应该尽快出台能大幅缓解失衡的政策,而不是拖到以后。否则,我们每天硬塞给全世界的 20 亿美元,可能会引发一场令人不快的全球性消化不良。(关于我们贸易逆差不可持续的其他评论,见 2004 年 11 月 19 日艾伦·格林斯潘的讲话、2004 年 6 月 29 日联邦公开市场委员会的会议纪要,以及 2007 年 9 月 11 日本·伯南克的声明。)
When the dollar falls, it both makes our products cheaper for foreigners to buy and their products more expensive for U.S. citizens. That’s why a falling currency is supposed to cure a trade deficit. Indeed, the U.S. deficit has undoubtedly been tempered by the large drop in the dollar. But ponder this: In 2002 when the Euro averaged 94.6¢, our trade deficit with Germany (the fifth largest of our trading partners) was $36 billion, whereas in 2007, with the Euro averaging $1.37, our deficit with Germany was up to $45 billion. Similarly, the Canadian dollar averaged 64¢ in 2002 and 93¢ in 2007. Yet our trade deficit with Canada rose as well, from $50 billion in 2002 to $64 billion in 2007. So far, at least, a plunging dollar has not done much to bring our trade activity into balance. There’s been much talk recently of sovereign wealth funds and how they are buying large pieces of American businesses. This is our doing, not some nefarious plot by foreign governments. Our trade equation guarantees massive foreign investment in the U.S. When we force-feed $2 billion daily to the rest of the world, they must invest in something here. Why should we complain when they choose stocks over bonds? Our country’s weakening currency is not the fault of OPEC, China, etc. Other developed countries rely on imported oil and compete against Chinese imports just as we do. In developing a sensible trade policy, the U.S. should not single out countries to punish or industries to protect. Nor should we take actions likely to evoke retaliatory behavior that will reduce America’s exports, true trade that benefits both our country and the rest of the world. Our legislators should recognize, however, that the current imbalances are unsustainable and should therefore adopt policies that will materially reduce them sooner rather than later. Otherwise our $2 billion daily of force-fed dollars to the rest of the world may produce global indigestion of an unpleasant sort. (For other comments about the unsustainability of our trade deficits, see Alan Greenspan’s comments on November 19, 2004, the Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes of June 29, 2004, and Ben Bernanke’s statement on September 11, 2007.)
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2007 年,伯克希尔只持有过一种直接的外汇头寸。那就是——请屏住呼吸——巴西雷亚尔。就在不久之前,用美元换雷亚尔还是件难以想象的事。毕竟,在过去一个世纪里,巴西的货币已实际经历过五次变脸,最终都沦为废纸。跟许多货币周期性贬值乃至消亡的国家一样,巴西的富人有时会把大笔资金存放在美国,以保全财富。但过去五年里,任何遵循这条看似稳妥之道的巴西人,净资产都会缩水一半。以下是 2002 年底到 2007 年底雷亚尔对美元的逐年记录(以指数计):100;122;133;152;166;199。每年雷亚尔都在升值,美元都在贬值。而且,这一时期的大部分时间里,巴西政府实际上还在压低雷亚尔汇率,通过市场买入美元来支撑我们的货币。过去五年,我们的直接外汇头寸带来了 2.3 亿美元的税前利润;此外,我们持有的一些以其他货币计价的美国公司债券,也让我们获利不菲。比如,2001 年和 2002 年,我们以面值的 57% 买入了 3.1 亿欧元的亚马逊公司 2010 年到期的 6 7/8 债券。当时,亚马逊债券被标为“垃圾”信用等级,可它哪里是垃圾。(是的,弗吉尼亚,你偶尔确实能找到荒谬无效的市场——至少除了某些顶尖商学院的金融系之外,你哪儿都能找到。)这批亚马逊债券以欧元计价,对我们来说又多了一层重要的吸引力。2002 年我们买入时,欧元兑美元是 95 美分。因此,我们的美元成本只有 1.69 亿美元。如今,这些债券以面值的 102% 交易,欧元则值 1.47 美元。2005 年和 2006 年,我们持有的部分债券被赎回,拿到了 2.53 亿美元。剩余的债券年末估值 1.62 亿美元。在我们 2.46 亿美元的已实现和未实现收益中,约 1.18 亿美元来自美元贬值。汇率,真的很重要。
At Berkshire we held only one direct currency position during 2007. That was in – hold your breath – the Brazilian real. Not long ago, swapping dollars for reals would have been unthinkable. After all, during the past century five versions of Brazilian currency have, in effect, turned into confetti. As has been true in many countries whose currencies have periodically withered and died, wealthy Brazilians sometimes stashed large sums in the U.S. to preserve their wealth. But any Brazilian who followed this apparently prudent course would have lost half his net worth over the past five years. Here’s the year-by-year record (indexed) of the real versus the dollar from the end of 2002 to yearend 2007: 100; 122; 133; 152; 166; 199. Every year the real went up and the dollar fell. Moreover, during much of this period the Brazilian government was actually holding down the value of the real and supporting our currency by buying dollars in the market. Our direct currency positions have yielded $2.3 billion of pre-tax profits over the past five years, and in addition we have profited by holding bonds of U.S. companies that are denominated in other currencies. For example, in 2001 and 2002 we purchased €310 million Amazon.com, Inc. 6 7/8 of 2010 at 57% of par. At the time, Amazon bonds were priced as “junk” credits, though they were anything but. (Yes, Virginia, you can occasionally find markets that are ridiculously inefficient – or at least you can find them anywhere except at the finance departments of some leading business schools.) The Euro denomination of the Amazon bonds was a further, and important, attraction for us. The Euro was at 95¢ when we bought in 2002. Therefore, our cost in dollars came to only $169 million. Now the bonds sell at 102% of par and the Euro is worth $1.47. In 2005 and 2006 some of our bonds were called and we received $253 million for them. Our remaining bonds were valued at $162 million at yearend. Of our $246 million of realized and unrealized gain, about $118 million is attributable to the fall in the dollar. Currencies do matter.
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在伯克希尔,我们将努力进一步增加直接和间接的海外收入来源。然而,即使我们取得成功,我们的资产和盈利也始终集中在美国。尽管我们的国家存在诸多不完善之处,以及层出不穷的各种问题,但美国的法治、顺应市场的经济体系以及对人才至上的信念,几乎必然能为美国公民带来持续增长的经济繁荣。
At Berkshire, we will attempt to further increase our stream of direct and indirect foreign earnings. Even if we are successful, however, our assets and earnings will always be concentrated in the U.S. Despite our country’s many imperfections and unrelenting problems of one sort or another, America’s rule of law, market-responsive economic system, and belief in meritocracy are almost certain to produce evergrowing prosperity for its citizens.
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正如我之前告诉过你们的,我们长期以来一直为首席执行官继任做好了充分准备,因为我们有三位出色的内部候选人。董事会清楚知道,如果我因去世或能力衰退而无法履职,会选谁接任。而且即便如此,董事会仍会有两位后备人选。去年我告诉过你们,我们还将迅速完成伯克希尔投资岗位的继任计划,我们现在确实已确定四位候选人,他们可以在管理投资方面接替我。这四人目前都管理着可观的资金,且都表示若被召唤,对来伯克希尔工作有强烈兴趣。董事会了解这四人的优势,若有必要,会预期聘请其中一位或多位。这些候选人年龄从年轻到中年,家境从富裕到富有,而且都希望为伯克希尔工作,原因超越了薪酬本身。(我不情愿地放弃了自己去世后继续管理投资组合的想法——放弃了我为“跳出框框思考”一词赋予新意义的希望。)
As I have told you before, we have for some time been well-prepared for CEO succession because we have three outstanding internal candidates. The board knows exactly whom it would pick if I were to become unavailable, either because of death or diminishing abilities. And that would still leave the board with two backups. Last year I told you that we would also promptly complete a succession plan for the investment job at Berkshire, and we have indeed now identified four candidates who could succeed me in managing investments. All manage substantial sums currently, and all have indicated a strong interest in coming to Berkshire if called. The board knows the strengths of the four and would expect to hire one or more if the need arises. The candidates are young to middle-aged, well-to-do to rich, and all wish to work for Berkshire for reasons that go beyond compensation. (I’ve reluctantly discarded the notion of my continuing to manage the portfolio after my death – abandoning my hope to give new meaning to the term “thinking outside the box.”)
虚构数字——上市公司如何粉饰盈利
Fanciful Figures – How Public Companies Juice Earnings
前参议员艾伦·辛普森有句名言:“在华盛顿走阳关大道的人,不必担心车水马龙。”不过,要是他真想找条人迹罕至的路,参议员先生该把目光投向美国企业的会计账本。1994 年发生了一场重要的公投,看的就是企业界偏爱哪条路。美国各大公司的首席执行官们刚刚迫使美国参议院以 88 票对 9 票的投票结果,命令财务会计准则委员会闭嘴。在那次训斥之前,FASB 曾胆大妄为——而且是一致同意,毫不含糊——告诉企业大佬们,他们获得的股票期权是一种薪酬形式,其价值应记为费用。参议员投票之后,FASB——如今已被参议院那 88 位“兼职注册会计师”好好上了一堂会计准则课——规定公司可以在两种期权报告方法中任选其一。首选做法是将期权价值列为费用,但也允许公司忽略这笔费用,只要期权按市场价格发行即可。美国首席执行官们的关键时刻到了,他们的反应可不太好看。接下来的六年里,标普 500 指数中的 500 家公司,恰好只有两家选了首选做法。其余公司的首席执行官们选了那条下坡路,为了报告更高的“利润”而忽略一笔庞大且显而易见的费用。我敢肯定,他们中有些人还觉得,要是自己选了列支费用,董事们将来批准他们渴望的巨额期权授予时可能会三思而行。事实证明,对许多首席执行官来说,连那条下坡路都不够好。在弱化后的规则下,如果期权以低于市场价的行使价发行,仍会对利润产生影响。没问题。为了避免这条烦人的规定,不少公司偷偷倒填期权日期,谎称期权是按当时市价授予的,而实际上它们是以远低于市场的价格发放的。几十年来期权会计的胡闹如今总算画上了句号,但其他会计选择依然存在——其中重要的一项,是公司在计算养老金费用时采用的投资回报假设。不出所料,许多公司仍继续挑选一个能让它们报告不那么扎实“利润”的假设。标普 500 指数中有养老金计划的 363 家公司,2006 年这一假设平均值是 8%。我们来看看这个数字兑现的可能性有多大。
Former Senator Alan Simpson famously said: “Those who travel the high road in Washington need not fear heavy traffic.” If he had sought truly deserted streets, however, the Senator should have looked to Corporate America’s accounting. An important referendum on which road businesses prefer occurred in 1994. America’s CEOs had just strong-armed the U.S. Senate into ordering the Financial Accounting Standards Board to shut up, by a vote that was 88-9. Before that rebuke the FASB had shown the audacity – by unanimous agreement, no less – to tell corporate chieftains that the stock options they were being awarded represented a form of compensation and that their value should be recorded as an expense. After the senators voted, the FASB – now educated on accounting principles by the Senate’s 88 closet CPAs – decreed that companies could choose between two methods of reporting on options. The preferred treatment would be to expense their value, but it would also be allowable for companies to ignore the expense as long as their options were issued at market value. A moment of truth had now arrived for America’s CEOs, and their reaction was not a pretty sight. During the next six years, exactly two of the 500 companies in the S&P chose the preferred route. CEOs of the rest opted for the low road, thereby ignoring a large and obvious expense in order to report higher “earnings.” I’m sure some of them also felt that if they opted for expensing, their directors might in future years think twice before approving the mega-grants the managers longed for. It turned out that for many CEOs even the low road wasn’t good enough. Under the weakened rule, there remained earnings consequences if options were issued with a strike price below market value. No problem. To avoid that bothersome rule, a number of companies surreptitiously backdated options to falsely indicate that they were granted at current market prices, when in fact they were dished out at prices well below market. Decades of option-accounting nonsense have now been put to rest, but other accounting choices remain – important among these the investment-return assumption a company uses in calculating pension expense. It will come as no surprise that many companies continue to choose an assumption that allows them to report less-than-solid “earnings.” For the 363 companies in the S&P that have pension plans, this assumption in 2006 averaged 8%. Let’s look at the chances of that being achieved.
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所有养老基金持有的债券和现金平均约占 28%,这些资产的回报率预计不会超过 5%。当然,更高的收益率也能实现,但伴随而来的是相应(或更大)损失的风险。这意味着剩余的 72% 资产——大部分投资于股票,无论是直接持有,还是通过对冲基金或私募股权投资等工具间接持有——必须赚取 9.2%,才能让整个基金达到假定的 8% 目标。而且这个回报必须是在扣除所有费用之后,这些费用如今比以往任何时候都高得多。这个预期现实吗?让我们重温两年前提到的一些数据:20 世纪期间,道琼斯指数从 66 点上涨到 11,497 点。这一涨幅看似巨大,但按年复合计算,仅为 5.3%。整个世纪持有道琼斯指数的投资者,在大部分时期还会获得丰厚的股息,但在最后几年只有 2% 左右。那是一个精彩的世纪。现在想想这个世纪。投资者要想勉强达到那 5.3% 的市值涨幅,道琼斯指数——最近低于 13,000 点——需要在 2099 年 12 月 31 日收于约 2,000,000 点。我们进入这个世纪已有八年,而市场在这百年中需要走完的 1,988,000 点道指旅程,我们才走了不到 2,000 点。令人好笑的是,评论员们一看到道指突破整千关口,比如 14,000 点或 15,000 点,就经常激动得喘不过气。如果他们继续保持这种反应,那本世纪年均 5.3% 的涨幅意味着,在未来 92 年里,他们会经历至少 1,986 次发作。虽然一切皆有可能,但真有人相信这是最可能的结果吗?股息继续维持在 2% 左右。即使股票能保持 1900 年代那种 5.3% 的年均增值率,计划资产中的股票部分——扣除 0.5% 的费用——最多也只能产生 7% 左右的回报。而且 0.5% 可能还低估了成本,因为存在层层顾问和高薪经理人(“帮手”)。自然,每个人都期望自己高于平均水平。而那些帮手——愿上天保佑他们——肯定会鼓励客户相信这一点。但作为一个群体,靠帮手辅助的那批人必然低于平均水平。原因很简单:1)总体上,所有投资者必然赚取平均回报,减去他们承担的成本;2)被动型投资者和指数投资者,正因为他们几乎不交易,能赚取接近平均水平的回报,减去极低的成本;3)既然这个群体赚取平均回报,剩下的群体——主动型投资者——也必须如此。但这个群体会承担高昂的交易、管理和咨询费用。因此,主动型投资者的回报缩水幅度要比那些不作为的同胞大得多。这意味着被动型群体——那些“啥也不懂的人”——必定获胜。我应该提一下,那些期望本世纪股票年回报率达 10% 的人——设想其中 2% 来自股息,8% 来自价格增值——其实是在隐含预测道指到 2100 年将达到约 24,000,000 点。如果你的顾问跟你谈股票能有两位数回报,把这个数学算给他听——虽然这不会让他动摇。许多帮手显然是《爱丽丝漫游奇境记》里那位王后的直系后代,她说过:“哎呀,有时候我在早餐前就能相信六件不可能的事。”要当心那些花言巧语的帮手,他们用幻想填满你的脑袋,同时用费用填满自己的口袋。一些公司在欧洲和美国都有养老金计划,而在他们的会计处理中,几乎全都假设美国计划的回报会高于非美国计划。这种差异令人费解:为什么这些公司不让美国经理人负责非美国的养老金资产,让这些资产也沾沾他们的魔法呢?我从未见过有人解释这个谜团。但负责审查回报假设的审计师和精算师似乎对此毫无异议。
The average holdings of bonds and cash for all pension funds is about 28%, and on these assets returns can be expected to be no more than 5%. Higher yields, of course, are obtainable but they carry with them a risk of commensurate (or greater) loss. This means that the remaining 72% of assets – which are mostly in equities, either held directly or through vehicles such as hedge funds or private-equity investments – must earn 9.2% in order for the fund overall to achieve the postulated 8%. And that return must be delivered after all fees, which are now far higher than they have ever been. How realistic is this expectation? Let’s revisit some data I mentioned two years ago: During the 20th Century, the Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497. This gain, though it appears huge, shrinks to 5.3% when compounded annually. An investor who owned the Dow throughout the century would also have received generous dividends for much of the period, but only about 2% or so in the final years. It was a wonderful century. Think now about this century. For investors to merely match that 5.3% market-value gain, the Dow – recently below 13,000 – would need to close at about 2,000,000 on December 31, 2099. We are now eight years into this century, and we have racked up less than 2,000 of the 1,988,000 Dow points the market needed to travel in this hundred years to equal the 5.3% of the last. It’s amusing that commentators regularly hyperventilate at the prospect of the Dow crossing an even number of thousands, such as 14,000 or 15,000. If they keep reacting that way, a 5.3% annual gain for the century will mean they experience at least 1,986 seizures during the next 92 years. While anything is possible, does anyone really believe this is the most likely outcome? Dividends continue to run about 2%. Even if stocks were to average the 5.3% annual appreciation of the 1900s, the equity portion of plan assets – allowing for expenses of .5% – would produce no more than 7% or so. And .5% may well understate costs, given the presence of layers of consultants and highpriced managers (“helpers”). Naturally, everyone expects to be above average. And those helpers – bless their hearts – will certainly encourage their clients in this belief. But, as a class, the helper-aided group must be below average. The reason is simple: 1) Investors, overall, will necessarily earn an average return, minus costs they incur; 2) Passive and index investors, through their very inactivity, will earn that average minus costs that are very low; 3) With that group earning average returns, so must the remaining group – the active investors. But this group will incur high transaction, management, and advisory costs. Therefore, the active investors will have their returns diminished by a far greater percentage than will their inactive brethren. That means that the passive group – the “know-nothings” – must win. I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century – envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about doubledigit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him. Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees. Some companies have pension plans in Europe as well as in the U.S. and, in their accounting, almost all assume that the U.S. plans will earn more than the non-U.S. plans. This discrepancy is puzzling: Why should these companies not put their U.S. managers in charge of the non-U.S. pension assets and let them work their magic on these assets as well? I’ve never seen this puzzle explained. But the auditors and actuaries who are charged with vetting the return assumptions seem to have no problem with it.
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然而,有一点毫无悬念:首席执行官们为何倾向于采用高投资回报假设?因为这能让他们报告更高的盈利。而一旦假设出错——我相信确实会出错——报应要等到他们退休很久之后才会降临。几十年来,美国企业界在追求当期盈利数字最大化的路上不断挑战底线,甚至有过之而无不及。现在,该收敛收敛了。应该听听我的搭档查理的话:“如果你已经有三球打出了左侧界外,下一杆就瞄准右边一点吧。”
What is no puzzle, however, is why CEOs opt for a high investment assumption: It lets them report higher earnings. And if they are wrong, as I believe they are, the chickens won’t come home to roost until long after they retire. After decades of pushing the envelope – or worse – in its attempt to report the highest number possible for current earnings, Corporate America should ease up. It should listen to my partner, Charlie: “If you’ve hit three balls out of bounds to the left, aim a little to the right on the next swing.”
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未来股东们将面临的养老金成本冲击,与纳税人即将承受的相比,简直是小巫见大巫。公共养老金的承诺数额庞大,而许多情况下资金严重不足。由于这颗定时炸弹的引线很长,政客们不愿增加税收负担,因为问题要等到这些官员离任很久之后才会显现。承诺极早退休——有时甚至针对四十出头的人——以及慷慨的生活费用调整,对这些官员来说轻而易举。但在人们寿命延长、通胀必然存在的世界里,这些承诺绝非易事。
Whatever pension-cost surprises are in store for shareholders down the road, these jolts will be surpassed many times over by those experienced by taxpayers. Public pension promises are huge and, in many cases, funding is woefully inadequate. Because the fuse on this time bomb is long, politicians flinch from inflicting tax pain, given that problems will only become apparent long after these officials have departed. Promises involving very early retirement – sometimes to those in their low 40s – and generous cost-of-living adjustments are easy for these officials to make. In a world where people are living longer and inflation is certain, those promises will be anything but easy to keep.
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在指出美国会计领域“信用体系”的种种失败之后,我需要说明,伯克希尔在账面上一个规模极其庞大的项目上,恰恰实行的就是这种体系。在我们向你们提交的每一份报告中,都必须对保险业务的损失准备金进行估测。一旦估算有误,就意味着资产负债表和利润表都会出错。所以,我们自然会尽最大努力让这些估算尽可能准确。然而,每一份报告中的估算都难免存在偏差。2007 年年末,我们账上列示的保险负债为 560 亿美元,这是我们对截至年末已发生所有损失事件(除约 30 亿美元已折现至现值的准备金外)最终赔付金额的估算。我们知晓其中成千上万起事件,并为每一起估定了赔付金额,涵盖我们认为将要支付的额度以及支付过程中产生的相关费用(如律师费)。在某些情况下,比如涉及工伤保险中某些严重伤害的索赔,赔付可能持续 50 年甚至更久。我们还为那些发生在年末之前、但我们尚未获知的损失计提了大额准备金。有时,投保人自己都不知道已经发生了损失(比如一桩多年未被发现的贪污案)。我们有时还会收到几十年前承保保单下的损失通知。几年前我曾讲过的一个故事,正好能说明我们在准确估算赔付责任时面临的难题:一位男士正在欧洲出差处理重要事务,姐姐打来电话说父亲去世了。他说自己赶不回去,但嘱咐姐姐葬礼不要省钱,费用由他承担。他回来后,姐姐告诉他葬礼办得很体面,并给了他总额 8000 美元的账单。他付了钱,可一个月后又收到殡仪馆寄来的 10 美元账单。他也付了,再一个月后又收到一张 10 美元的收费单。第三张 10 美元账单寄来时,这位困惑的男士打电话问姐姐到底怎么回事。姐姐回答:“哦,我忘了告诉你,我们给爸爸租了一套西装下葬的。”在我们的保险公司里,世界各地都埋着数量未知但肯定相当多的“租来的西装”。我们努力准确估算这些账单。十年或二十年后,我们甚至能大致判断出当前估算的偏差有多大,但即便那时,也难免会有意外。我个人认为,我们列示的准备金是充足的,但过去我也曾多次判断失误。
Having laid out the failures of an “honor system” in American accounting, I need to point out that this is exactly the system existing at Berkshire for a truly huge balance-sheet item. In every report we make to you, we must guesstimate the loss reserves for our insurance units. If our estimate is wrong, it means that both our balance sheet and our earnings statement will be wrong. So naturally we do our best to make these guesses accurate. Nevertheless, in every report our estimate is sure to be wrong. At yearend 2007, we show an insurance liability of $56 billion that represents our guess as to what we will eventually pay for all loss events that occurred before yearend (except for about $3 billion of the reserve that has been discounted to present value). We know of many thousands of events and have put a dollar value on each that reflects what we believe we will pay, including the associated costs (such as attorney’s fees) that we will incur in the payment process. In some cases, among them claims for certain serious injuries covered by worker’s compensation, payments will be made for 50 years or more. We also include a large reserve for losses that occurred before yearend but that we have yet to hear about. Sometimes, the insured itself does not know that a loss has occurred. (Think of an embezzlement that remains undiscovered for years.) We sometimes hear about losses from policies that covered our insured many decades ago. A story I told you some years back illustrates our problem in accurately estimating our loss liability: A fellow was on an important business trip in Europe when his sister called to tell him that their dad had died. Her brother explained that he couldn’t get back but said to spare nothing on the funeral, whose cost he would cover. When he returned, his sister told him that the service had been beautiful and presented him with bills totaling $8,000. He paid up but a month later received a bill from the mortuary for $10. He paid that, too – and still another $10 charge he received a month later. When a third $10 invoice was sent to him the following month, the perplexed man called his sister to ask what was going on. “Oh,” she replied, “I forgot to tell you. We buried Dad in a rented suit.” At our insurance companies we have an unknown, but most certainly large, number of “rented suits” buried around the world. We try to estimate the bill for them accurately. In ten or twenty years, we will even be able to make a good guess as to how inaccurate our present guess is. But even that guess will be subject to surprises. I personally believe our stated reserves are adequate, but I’ve been wrong several times in the past.
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股东大会
今年的股东大会将于 5 月 3 日(周六)举行。照例,Qwest 中心早上 7 点开门,8 点半放映新的伯克希尔电影。9 点半我们直接进入问答环节,中间在 Qwest 的摊位前停下来吃午饭,一直持续到下午 3 点。短暂休息后,我和查理于 3 点 15 分主持股东大会。如果你决定在问答期间离开,请在查理发言时走。当然,离开的最好理由是去购物。我们会帮你实现这一点,把会议区旁边 19.43 万平方英尺的大厅塞满伯克希尔子公司的产品。去年,2.7 万人来参会,个个出力,几乎每个摊位都创下销售纪录。但你们还能做得更好。(如有必要,我会锁上门。)今年我们再次展示一栋克莱顿住宅(用阿克米砖、肖氏地毯、约翰斯·曼维尔保温材料、米泰克紧固件、无忧遮阳篷和 NFM 家具)。你会发现这栋 1550 平方英尺的房子,售价 6.95 万美元,物超所值。买完房子,考虑一下旁边展示的森林河房车和浮筒船。GEICO 会设一个摊位,由来自全国各地的顶级顾问坐镇,随时准备给你报车险价格。多数情况下,GEICO 能给你股东专属折扣(通常 8%)。在我们经营的 50 个州中,有 45 个允许这个特惠。(补一句:如果你符合其他折扣条件,比如某些团体折扣,这笔折扣不能叠加。)带上你现有保险的详细资料,看看我们能否帮你省钱。我相信至少 50% 的人能省到。周六在奥马哈机场,我们照例安排一排 NetJets 飞机供你参观。到 Qwest 的 NetJets 摊位打听一下怎么去看飞机。坐巴士来奥马哈,开新飞机走。想带多少发胶和剪刀上飞机都行。接下来,如果你还有钱剩,去 Bookworm 书店,那里有大约 25 本书和 DVD——全部打折——首推《穷查理宝典》。这本书没做任何广告,也没进书店货架,却卖出了近 5 万册,相当了不起。没法来参会的人,可以上 poorcharliesalmanack.com 订购一本。随本报告附上的代理材料里有一份附件,说明如何获取入场凭证,用于参加股东大会和其他活动。至于机票、酒店和租车,我们再次签下美国运通(800-799-6634)给你提供特别协助。卡罗尔·佩德森负责这些事,每年都干得非常出色,我在此感谢她。酒店房间可能不好订,但找卡罗尔,你肯定能订到。在内布拉斯加家具城,位于 72 街道奇街和太平洋街之间的 77 英亩地块上,我们再次搞“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。11 年前我们在 NFM 启动这个特别活动,“周末”期间的销售额从 1997 年的 530 万美元增长到 2007 年的 3090 万美元。这个量比大多数家具店一整年还多。要享受伯克希尔折扣,你得在 5 月 1 日(周四)到 5 月 5 日(周一)期间购物,并且出示参会凭证。这个时段的特价甚至适用于几家知名制造商的产品,它们平时对打折有严格规定,但本着股东周末的精神,破例为你开了口子。我们感谢他们的配合。NFM 周一至周六上午 10 点到晚上 9 点营业,周日上午 10 点到下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5 点半到 8 点,NFM 还办一场 Baja 海滩派对,供应牛肉和鸡肉玉米饼。
The Annual Meeting Our meeting this year will be held on Saturday, May 3rd. As always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m., and a new Berkshire movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30 we will go directly to the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:00. Then, after a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:15. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. The best reason to exit, of course is to shop. We will help you do that by filling the 194,300square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with the products of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, the 27,000 people who came to the meeting did their part, and almost every location racked up record sales. But you can do better. (If necessary, I’ll lock the doors.) This year we will again showcase a Clayton home (featuring Acme brick, Shaw carpet, Johns Manville insulation, MiTek fasteners, Carefree awnings and NFM furniture). You will find that this 1,550square-foot home, priced at $69,500, delivers exceptional value. And after you purchase the house, consider also acquiring the Forest River RV and pontoon boat on display nearby. GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 45 of the 50 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least 50% of you, I believe we can. On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets available for your inspection. Stop by the NetJets booth at the Qwest to learn about viewing these planes. Come to Omaha by bus; leave in your new plane. And take all the hair gel and scissors that you wish on board with you. Next, if you have any money left, visit the Bookworm, where you will find about 25 books and DVDs – all discounted – led again by Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Without any advertising or bookstore placement, Charlie’s book has now remarkably sold nearly 50,000 copies. For those of you who can’t make the meeting, go to poorcharliesalmanack.com to order a copy. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. Carol Pedersen, who handles these matters, does a terrific job for us each year, and I thank her for it. Hotel rooms can be hard to find, but work with Carol and you will get one. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. We initiated this special event at NFM eleven years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $30.9 million in 2007. This is more volume than most furniture stores register in a year. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Thursday, May 1st and Monday, May 5th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a Baja Beach Bash featuring beef and chicken tacos.
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在博尔斯海姆珠宝,我们将再次举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是 5 月 2 日(周五)下午 6 点至晚上 10 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是主庆典,将于 5 月 4 日(周日)上午 9 点至下午 4 点举行。周六我们将营业至下午 6 点。整个周末博尔斯海姆都将迎来大批人流。为方便您安排,股东优惠价将在 4 月 28 日(周一)至 5 月 10 日(周六)期间有效。在此期间,请出示您的会议凭证或显示您为伯克希尔股东的经纪账户对账单,以表明股东身份。周日在博尔斯海姆外的帐篷里,两届全美国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫将蒙眼迎战所有挑战者——后者则睁大眼睛——每轮六人一组。附近,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克将为围观者带来惊奇表演。此外,我们还有世界顶级桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格,周日下午将陪股东们打桥牌。戈拉特餐厅将于 5 月 4 日(周日)再次只为伯克希尔股东开放,供应时间为下午 4 点至晚上 10 点。去年,这家有 240 个座位的餐厅在股东周日那天供应了 915 份晚餐。三天总计 2487 份,其中包括 656 份丁骨牛排——这是行家们最青睐的主菜。请记住,要在当天光临戈拉特,您必须提前预订。预订请于 4 月 1 日致电 402-551-3733(切勿提前)。我们还将再次于周六下午 4 点为来自北美以外的股东举办招待会。每年我们的股东大会都吸引全球众多人士,查理和我希望能亲自迎接这些远道而来的朋友。去年我们很高兴结识了来自几十个国家的 400 多位股东。任何来自美国或加拿大以外的股东都将获得特别凭证和参加该活动的指南。
At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, May 2nd. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 4th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 28th through Saturday, May 10th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder. On Sunday, in a tent outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Gorat’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 4th, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Last year Gorat’s, which seats 240, served 915 dinners on Shareholder Sunday. The three-day total was 2,487 including 656 T-bone steaks, the entrée preferred by the cognoscenti. Please remember that to come to Gorat’s on that day, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before). We will again have a reception at 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon for shareholders who have come from outside of North America. Every year our meeting draws many people from around the globe, and Charlie and I want to be sure we personally greet those who have come so far. Last year we enjoyed meeting more than 400 of you from many dozens of countries. Any shareholder who comes from other than the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending this function.
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现年 84 岁的我和 77 岁的查理,运气之好超出了我们最疯狂的想象。我们生在美国;有出色的父母确保我们接受良好教育;拥有美满的家庭和健康的身体;还自带一根“商业”基因,让我们得以以远超许多人的程度兴旺发达,而那些人给社会创造的福祉并不比我们少,甚至更多。再者,我们长期以来从事着自己热爱的工作,在无数方面得到才华横溢、性情开朗的同事们的帮助。每一天都让我们兴奋不已;难怪我们总是跳着踢踏舞去上班。但对我们来说,最开心的莫过于在伯克希尔的股东大会上与我们的股东合伙人相聚。所以,请在 5 月 3 日来奎斯特中心参加我们的年度资本家伍德斯托克盛会。我们在那里见。
At 84 and 77, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. Every day is exciting to us; no wonder we tap-dance to work. But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on May 3rd at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. We’ll see you there.
February 2008
February 2008
沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board
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