每日新闻集团2021年股东大会——查理·芒格问答

2021 · 会议 · 原文约 25225 词
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介绍

查理·芒格:女士们先生们,无论你们身在何处,通过雅虎财经网站,会议现在开始。

我是查理·芒格,董事长,我的右边是首席执行官杰里·萨尔兹曼。

董事是杰里·萨尔兹曼、彼得·考夫曼、玛丽·康林、加里·威尔科克斯(现已退休)和我本人。埃伦·爱尔兰将担任选举监察人。

截至 2020 年 12 月 18 日(登记日),公司发行在外的普通股共计 1,380,746 股。本次会议代理投票所代表的股份总数为 995,682 股,足以构成法定人数,使会议正式召开。

第一项议程是重新选举四位董事,投票结果如下:查尔斯·芒格 679,481 票,杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼 660,287 票,彼得·考夫曼 593,336 票,玛丽·康林 651,493 票。由于我们已获得这些代理投票,上述董事现已连任。

第二项提案是批准聘请我们的注册会计师:Baker Tilly US, LLP。赞成票 995,356 票,反对票 120 票。这很有意思——到底是哪个混蛋在投票反对会计师?不过会计师已被正式任命。现在进入提问环节。

请开始。

Introduction Charlie Munger: Ladies and gentlemen, wherever you are, via Yahoo finance’s website. The meeting will come to order. I’m Charlie Munger, Chairman, and to my right is Jerry Salzman, CEO. The directors are Gerry Salzman, Peter Kaufman, Mary Conlin, Gary Wilcox—who’s retiring now—and myself. Ellen Ireland will be inspector of elections. On December 18, 2020—the record date—there were 1,380,746 shares of common stock of the company outstanding. The total number of shares, represented by proxies at this meeting, are 995,682, which are more than enough to constitute a quorum making the meeting duly held. The first order of business is to reelect the four directors and the votes are as follows: Charles Munger, 679,481, Gerald Salzman, 660,287, Peter Kaufman, 593,336, Mary Conlon, 651,493. Because we have the proxies those directors are now reelected. The second proposal is to ratify the appointment of our certified public accountant: Baker Tilly US, LLP. The votes in favor of that are 995,356 against 120. That’s interesting—who in the hell is voting against the accountants? But the accountants are duly elected. We will now proceed to the question period. Go ahead.

问题

问题:在今年的致股东信中,您提到股价上涨是由投机狂潮和被动指数基金的强制买入推动的。我想这同样适用于整个大盘。这种市场行为会对投资者心理产生什么影响?投资者又该如何更好地应对周期性的狂热?

查理·芒格:嗯,市场经济里这种事情确实会发生。总会出现疯狂繁荣的时期。还记得互联网泡沫吗?当时硅谷每一栋小楼都被炒出天价,可几个月后,大约三分之一的楼都空置了。资本主义就是会有这样的阶段。我活了这么久,我的对策一贯就是,无视它们。我觉得股东也应该这么做。

事实上,很多股东的实际做法恰恰是在狂热时一窝蜂买入——还经常借钱买——因为他们看到股价在涨。当然,这是一种非常危险的投资方式。我认为股东应该更理智一些,不要仅仅因为股价在涨、自己又爱赌一把就一窝蜂冲进去买股票。

Questions Question: In this year’s annual letter, you mentioned the share price increase was driven by speculative frenzy and forced index buying. I would imagine that applies to the broad market too. What are the psychological implications of this type of market behavior? What could investors do to cope better with periodical frenzy? Charlie Munger: Well, these things do happen in a market economy. You get crazy booms. Remember the Dot Com boom when every little building in Silicon Valley ran into a huge price and a few months later about a third of them were vacant. There are these periods in capitalism. I’ve been around for a long time and my policy has always been to just write them out. And I think that’s what shareholders do. In fact, what a lot of shareholders actually do is crowd in buying stocks on frenzy—frequently on credit—because they see that they’re going up. And, of course, that’s a very dangerous way to invest. I think that shareholders should be more sensible and not crowd into stocks and buy them just because they’re going up and they like to gamble.

吉卜林曾写过一首名为《女人》(女士们)的诗,最后一句大意是说,你应该从他那里了解女人,而不是亲自去尝试,因为,他说,我知道你不会听我的劝告。

提问:芒格先生,您如何看待最近社交媒体引发的 GameStop 轧空事件,以及对未来卖空行为的影响?还有另一位股东提问:尊敬的芒格先生,请分享您对近期/r/WallStreetBets 上 GameStop 轧空事件的看法。这件事似乎涉及很多您提到的导致人类误判的标准原因。

查理·芒格:嗯,确实如此,这种事就是当一大群人利用流动性股票市场,像赌博一样押注资源时,可能发生的事情。

这正是我们在股票市场上看到的疯狂景象,而且这种疯狂是由那些从这个新赌徒群体中赚取佣金和其他收入的人助长的。

当然,当事情发展到极端时,就会发生你所说的那种轧空事件。公众通常没有注意到,但清算所负责清算所有这些交易。当事情像你提到的那个事件那样变得疯狂时,清算所面临破产的威胁。

所以,这变得非常危险。拥有一种鼓励那些怀有赛马赌徒心态的人大量投机股票的文化,实在是太愚蠢了。当然,这会像已经发生的那样引发麻烦。

我对此有一个非常简单的想法。我认为,你应该通过向他人出售对他们有益的东西来在这个世界上赚钱。如果你向他们提供赌博服务,并从中抽取利润,就像许多专门引诱业余人士入场的新券商那样,我认为这是一种肮脏的赚钱方式。我认为我们允许这样做简直是疯了。

提问:您希望《每日日报》公司在十年后的未来是什么样子?

查理·芒格:嗯,我当然希望他们在软件领域大获成功,为现代世界实现所有这些法院的自动化。我认为这是可能发生的,当然,这不是板上钉钉的事。我也希望报纸能存活下来。这同样不是板上钉钉的事。

提问:高度可配置的 JTI 产品可能帮助 e-suite 软件深度整合到新的司法管辖区,因为机构和公民都开始熟悉法院软件。目前,可确认的合同收入主要来自实施和许可。一旦产品上线,预计主要附加收入来源是什么?像 eFile-it、ePay-it、云托管服务和其他产品将变得有多重要?

查理·芒格:嗯,我们其实不知道这一切会走向何方。我们只知道一件事,那就是全世界的法院都将被带入现代时代。正如格里在早餐后刚对我说的,你不会想在未来投资一个法院旁边的停车场,因为大量的法院程序将通过互联网进行。这是一件非常理想的事情。如果你去像爱沙尼亚这样的小国家,整个国家都在互联网上,这是一个非常好的主意。

所以,我认为你可以肯定,我们正在做的事情将是一个巨大的成长领域。这是好消息。坏消息是不清楚谁会赢得所有业务,或者能赚多少钱。一般来说,人们认为我们是一家像微软那样的普通软件公司。实际上,我们从事的是一种比微软更难的软件业务。当你通过招投标流程(RFP)来响应软件需求时,这是一项非常困难、要求很高的业务,它比微软的业务利润更低,确定性更差。

但我们仍然热爱它。这是一项重要的公共服务。

提问:我们有几个关于 J.P. "瑞克" 盖林的问题。您能否分享一些关于他的故事以及您最美好的回忆?

查理·芒格:嗯,几十年来他一直是我最亲密的朋友之一。他是一个非常好的伙伴,一位杰出的绅士。当然,我们一起合作取得了不少成就。

瑞克是沃伦·巴菲特、瑞克·盖林和查理·芒格这个小团体的一员,我们在蓝筹印花公司因反垄断和解而广泛分配股权时,买下了它的控制权。我们在一起合作了很长很长时间,后来瑞克和我又在另一个场合一起做了《每日日报》。

瑞克总是很幽默,总是很聪明。我讲一个关于瑞克的故事,他参加了海军的智商测试,获得了有史以来的最高分之一,并且提前交卷了。这种事不常见。这就是为什么他在生活中晋升得这么快。他就是那么聪明绝顶。

和他在一起很有趣,因为他总是跳飞机、跳伞、跑马拉松等等,做各种我永远不会考虑去做的事情。他非常爱开玩笑。他喜欢逗别人。

他一生都非常勇敢和慷慨,帮助他身边的每一个人。我们非常想念瑞克。但他已经 90 岁了。他度过了漫长而精彩的一生。他和我一样老。当这些人离去时,没有人能取代他们。格里,你还记得瑞克有情绪低落的时候吗?他总是很乐观。

杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼:总是很乐观,是的。而且总是充满兴趣,跟上时代,不需要花很多时间了解背景信息就能发表评论。总是切中要点。

查理·芒格:嗯,能够以最高分提前交完智商测试,这确实有帮助。

Kipling once wrote a poem called The Women (The Ladies) and the concluding line was to the effect that you should learn about women from him instead of doing it yourself, because, he says, I know you won’t follow my advice. Question: What are Mr. Munger’s thoughts on the recent GameStop short squeeze by social media and the resulting implications on short selling in the future? And another shareholder asked: Dear Mr. Munger, please share your thoughts on the recent /r/WallStreetBets GameStop short squeeze. It seems to involve a lot of your standard causes of human misjudgment. Charlie Munger: Well, it certainly does and that’s the kind of thing that can happen when you get a whole lot of people who are using liquid stock markets to gamble the way they would on embedding on resources. And that’s what we have going in the stock market in a frenzy that’s fed by people who are getting commissions and other revenues out of this new bunch of gamblers. And, of course, when things get extreme you have things like that short squeeze. It’s not generally noticed by the public but clearinghouses clear all these trades. And when things get as crazy as they were in the event you’re talking about, there are threats of clearinghouse failure. So it gets very dangerous. And it’s really stupid to have a culture that encourages as much gambling in stocks by people who have the mindset of race track betters. And, of course, it’s going to create trouble as it did. I have a very simple idea on the subject. I think you should try and make your money in this world by selling other people things that are good for them. And if you’re selling them gambling services where you make profits off of the top, like many of these new brokers who specialize in luring the amateurs in, I think it’s a dirty way to make money. And I think that we’re crazy to allow it. Question: What do you hope the future of the Daily Journal Corporation looks like in a decade? Charlie Munger: Well, I certainly hope that they succeed mightily in their software endeavor to automate all these courts for the modern world. And, I think that could happen, but, of course, that’s not a sure thing. I hope the newspaper survives too. And that’s not a sure thing either. Question: The highly configurable JTI product may help e-suites integrate deeply into new jurisdictions as agencies and citizens become familiar with the courthouse software. Today, the majority of contractual revenue that can be identified is from implementations and licenses. What are the main sources of ancillary revenue expected once the products have gone live and how meaningful will the products like eFile-it, ePay-it, cloud hosting services, and others become? Charlie Munger: Well, we don’t really know where it’s all going. We do know one thing and that is that the courts of the whole world are going to be taken into the modern age. And, as Gerry has just said to me just after breakfast, you wouldn’t want to invest in a parking lot by a courthouse for the future because an awful lot of the court proceedings are going to go to the internet. This is a highly desirable thing. If you go to a little country like Estonia, the whole damn country is on the internet and it’s a very good idea. So, I think you can count on the fact that what we’re doing is going to be a big growing field. That’s the good news. The bad news is it’s not clear who’s gonna win all the business or how much money is going to be made. Generally speaking, people assume that we’re a normal software company like Microsoft or something. We are in fact being a more difficult type of software business than Microsoft. When you respond to software by the RFP process, it’s a very difficult, demanding business and it’s less profitable and less sure than what Microsoft does. We love it anyway. It’s doing a big public service. Question: We have a couple of questions about J.P. “Rick” Guerin. Would you share a few stories about him and your fondest memory? Charlie Munger: Well, he was one of my closest friends for many decades. And, he was very good company and a splendid gentleman. Of course, we accomplished quite a bit working together. Rick was part of the group which consisted of Warren Buffett, Rick Guerin, and Charlie Munger that bought control of Blue Chip Stamps when it was widely distributed in an anti-trust settlement. We were together in that for a long, long time, and then Rick and I did the Daily Journal together on another occasion. Rick was always humorous. Always intelligent. I tell a story on Rick that he took the Navy’s IQ test and got one of the highest scores ever recorded and left early. That doesn’t happen. That’s the reason he rose so fast in life. He was just so damn smart. He was fun to be with because he was always jumping out of airplanes and parachutes and running marathons and so on, doing all kinds of things I would never consider doing. And he was a great kidder. He loved to kid people. He was very courageous and generous in helping everybody around him all his life. We miss Rick terribly. But he was 90 years of age. He had a long and wonderful run. He was old as I am. When these people go, there is none replacing them. Gerry, can you ever remember Rick down? He was always upbeat. Gerald Salzman: Always upbeat, yes. And interested and up to speed and didn’t have to take a lot of time to get background information to make his comments. Always on point. Charlie Munger: Well, it helps to be able to leave the IQ test early with the highest score.

问题:既然我们现在已是正向现金流——假设软件业务正在尽最大努力进行内生投资——那么在《每日新闻》的资本配置上,你们的哲学思考是什么?如果我们的软件业务成长为一个真正的公司,传统的股息和回购是不是最终的归宿?还是说,董事会更倾向于时不时地买入并持有证券?大家都知道,这可不是一个小型的伯克希尔·哈撒韦。我只是想了解一下长期资本配置的方向。

查理·芒格:嗯,我们这最有前途的业务是法院自动化的软件业务。我们会尽全力推进它。我们希望把它做好。至于有价证券,在目前条件下,相比持有现金,我们更喜欢持有普通股,我们持有这么多有价证券算是个意外。

问题:近年来,伯克希尔·哈撒韦对公司的继任计划提供了更多透明度,并在股东大会上展示了将引领伯克希尔未来的核心管理层。这些举措让部分股东对自己的投资有了更清晰的视野和信心。您能否对《每日新闻》的未来提供类似的见解?您是否会考虑采用类似伯克希尔的政策,让股东了解公司内部崭露头角的领导人?

查理·芒格:嗯,做软件的那些人干得非常出色——杰瑞手下的玛丽乔和丹尼。我们希望他们能继续干得这么出色。但当然,这是一个非常艰难的领域。竞争很激烈,相比主要竞争对手,我们是一家非常小的公司。所以,我们不能保证一定会成功。我们只能保证我们会努力,而且就我所知,我们干得相当不错。杰瑞,你不觉得我们干得相当不错吗?

杰拉德·萨尔兹曼:我觉得是,查理。

查理·芒格:我还想更进一步。我认为,杰瑞对玛丽乔和丹尼的表现并不感到意外,他们确实干得很好。但我对他们的出色程度感到震惊。

杰拉德·萨尔兹曼:查理经常提到法院。JTI 软件已经为其他司法和执法机构配置过,包括地方检察官、公诉人、公设辩护人、缓刑部门等等。所以,我们有一套基本系统,以多种不同方式配置,包括为美国一个大州做工伤保险系统。

查理·芒格:这是一个巨大的领域,我们有一个非常有趣的立足点,在澳大利亚和加利福尼亚的立足点最强。我们不能保证最终结果如何,但我们在非常努力地尝试,并且对进展有了一些令人鼓舞的印象。我能保证的一点是,我不会为它贡献太多,因为我不懂这玩意儿。

Questions: Now that we are cash flow positive—assuming the software business is investing organically as much as it can—what is the philosophical thinking with respect to capital allocation at the Daily Journal. Are traditional dividends and share repurchases the likely endstate—assuming our software business grows into a bonafide company—or will buying and holding securities from time to time be what the board is comfortable with? Everyone knows this isn’t a small cap Berkshire Hathaway. I’m just trying to get a feel for what the long-term capital allocation is. Charlie Munger: Well, the business around here that has the most promise is our software business automating the courts. And we’re gonna play that as hard as we can. And, we hope to do well in it. [As for] marketable securities, we prefer owning common stocks to holding cash under current conditions and it’s kind of an accident that we have so much in marketable securities. Question: In recent years, Berkshire Hathaway has provided much greater insight into the company’s succession thoughts and has made available at the annual meeting the company’s leading managers that will steer Berkshire’s future. These actions have given some shareholders more visibility and comfort on their investment. Can you provide similar insight regarding the future at the Daily Journal and would you consider implementing policies like those at Berkshire so shareholders can get to know the up-and-coming leaders in the organization? Charlie Munger: Well, the people doing the computer software are doing magnificently well— the people under Gerry: Maryjo and Danny. We hope they’ll continue doing magnificently well. But, of course, it’s a very difficult field. There’s a lot of competition and we’re a very small company compared to our main competitor. And so, we can’t promise we’re going to succeed. All we can promise is that we’re gonna try and so far as I can tell, we’re doing pretty well. Gerry, don’t you think we’re doing pretty well? Gerald Salzman: I think so, Charlie. Charlie Munger: I would go further. I don’t think Gerry is surprised that the people doing the work—Maryjo and Danny—are doing well. But I’m flabbergasted at how well they’re doing. Gerald Salzman: Charlie refers to the courts, many times. The JTI software has been configured for other judicial and justice agencies, including district attorneys, prosecutors, public defenders, probation, etc. So we have one basic system configured in a number of different ways, including worker’s comp for a large state in the United States. Charlie Munger: It’s a huge field in which we have a very interesting toehold with the strongest toeholds in Australia and California. We can’t promise what the outcome will be but we are trying pretty hard and we get some favorable impressions of progress. One thing I can promise is that I won’t contribute much to it because I don’t understand it.

问题:许多观察者认为当前的市场行为让他们想起互联网泡沫:疯狂的投机、没完没了的 SPAC、首日上市就飙升的 IPO。您是否同意这与 90 年代末非常相似,因此“结局会很惨”?

查理·芒格:是的,我认为结局会很惨,但我不知道什么时候。

问题:似乎每个人——包括演员、运动员、歌手和政治家——都在忙着推销自己的 SPAC。您怎么看待所有这些 SPAC 和推动它们的发起人?

查理·芒格:嗯,我完全不参与。我认为没有它们,世界会更好。我认为这种对尚未发现甚至尚未选定的企业进行的疯狂投机,是令人恼火的泡沫的迹象。只不过,只要狗屎能卖出去,投资银行就会卖狗屎。

问题:去年二月,您谈到了金融体系中的过度恶劣行径。考虑到过去一年的发展,您能否更新一下对体系中过度恶劣行径的评估?最严重的地方在哪里?

查理·芒格:嗯,最严重的地方在于被罗宾汉这类新型券商吸引来的新手投资者的动量交易。我认为所有这些活动都令人遗憾。我认为没有这些,文明会更好。

你们还记得,第一次大泡沫是 18 世纪英国的南海泡沫,最终破裂时造成了如此巨大的浩劫,以至于英国在此后几十年里几乎不允许任何公开交易和任何公司的证券。它制造了最最糟糕的烂摊子。

所以,人类的贪婪和券商行业的激进,时不时就会制造出这些泡沫。我认为明智的人应该远离它们。

问题:在您过去的演讲中,您曾用过“相当于挪用公款”这个术语来描述泡沫形成的情形,因为泡沫中涉及的双方都认为资产的价值高于其实际价值。今天的美国国债会是这样吗?鉴于国债资产支撑着其他所有资产的价值,这意味着什么?感谢您为我们做的一切教育。

查理·芒格:嗯,不,我不认为国债存在泡沫。我认为在利率如此低的情况下,国债是糟糕的投资。我从来不买,每日新闻也不买。但是,不,我不认为国债是个大问题。

我确实认为,我们不知道这些人造的低利率会带来什么影响,也不知道随着政府印制所有这些额外货币,未来经济将如何运转。我唯一的看法是,我认为没有人确切知道会发生什么。拉里·萨默斯最近被引述说,他担心刺激措施过度了。我不知道他是否正确。

问题:您过去曾说过:坐拥大量现金却什么都不做,需要品格。我并不是靠追逐平庸机会达到今天的位置的。过去几年,股权价格大幅上涨,而由于央行政策,现金可以说风险更高了。您是否考虑过修改这句话或降低您的标准?

查理·芒格:我认为在利率像现在这么低的情况下,每个人都愿意以更高的市盈率持有股票。所以,我认为优秀公司以比过去高得多的市盈率交易,未必是疯狂的。

另一方面,正如你所说,我不是靠疯狂的投机热潮中以高市盈率买入股票致富的。我不会改变。只是相比利率低得多的时候,我更愿意以高市盈率持有股票。人人都是如此。

问题:您认为在一个 GDP 下降的世界里,价值投资仍然相关吗?还有,被动投资呢?

查理·芒格:嗯,这很简单。价值投资永远不会过时。因为价值投资——按我的理解——总是希望买入股票时获得比付出的价格更多的价值。这种方法永远不会过时。

有些人认为价值投资就是去追逐那些现金很多但业务糟糕的公司。我不这么定义价值投资。我认为所有好的投资都是价值投资。只是有些人从强大的公司中寻找价值,有些人从弱小的公司中寻找价值。每一个价值投资者都试图获得比付出价格更多的价值。

有趣的是,在财富管理领域,很多人认为持有 100 只股票比持有四五只股票更能体现专业性。我认为这是疯狂。绝对的疯狂。

我发现更容易找到四五项我有相当大把握认为它们远高于平均水平的投资。我认为找到五个比找到一百个容易得多。

我称之为“反多元化”——这是我从别人那里抄来的。我更愿意持有两三只我认为自己了解并且有优势的股票。

Questions: Many observers see market behavior that reminds them of the Dot Com bubble: wild speculation, endless SPACs, and IPOs soaring on their first day of trading. Do you agree that there is a close parallel to the late 90s and that this, therefore, “must end badly?” Charlie Munger: Yes, I think it must end badly but I don’t know when. Question: It seems like everyone—including actors, athletes, singers, and politicians—is getting into the business of promoting their own SPAC. What do you think of all of the SPACs and the promoters pushing them? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t participate at all. And I think the world would be better off without them. I think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of an irritating bubble. It’s just that the investment banking profession will sell shit as long as shit can be sold. Question: Last February, you spoke about the wretched excess in the financial system. Given the developments over the past year, could you give us an update on your assessment of wretched excess in the system? Where does it appear most egregious? Charlie Munger: Well, it’s most egregious in the momentum trading by novice investors lured in by new types of brokerage operations like Robinhood. I think all of this activity is regrettable. I think civilization would do better without it. You’ll remember that when the first big bubble came, which was the South Sea bubble in England back in the 1700s, it created such havoc eventually when it blew up that England didn’t allow hardly any public trading and securities of any companies for decades thereafter. It just created the most unholy mess. So human greed and the aggression of the brokerage community create these bubbles from time to time. And I think wise people should just stay out of them. Question: In your past speeches, you have mentioned the term functional equivalent of embezzlement to describe situations where bubbles can form because both parties involved in a bubble believe the asset to be worth more than it truly is. Can U.S. Treasury bonds be such a case today? And what are the implications, since Treasury assets underpin the value of every other asset? Thank you for all you do to educate us. Charlie Munger: Well no, I don’t think we have a bubble in Treasury securities. I think they’re a bad investment when interest rates are this low. I never buy any and neither does Daily Journal. But, no, I don’t think Treasury securities are a big problem. I do think that we don’t know what these artificially low interest rates are going to do or how the economy is going to work in the future as governments print all this extra money. The only opinion I have there is that I don’t think anybody knows what’s going to happen for sure. Larry Summers has recently been quoted as being worried that we’re having too much stimulus. And I don’t know whether he’s right or not. Question: Previously, you have said; It takes character to sit with all that cash and do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities. In the past few years, equity prices have increased significantly and cash has arguably become riskier due to central banking policy. Have you considered amending this quote or lowering your standards? Charlie Munger: I think everybody is willing to hold stocks at higher price-earnings multiples when interest rates are as low as they are now. And so I don’t think it’s necessarily crazy that good companies sell at way higher multiples than they used to. On the other hand, as you say, I didn’t get rich by buying stocks at high price-earnings multiples in the midst of crazy speculative booms. I’m not going to change. I am more willing to hold stocks at high multiples than I would be if interest rates were a lot lower. Everybody is. Question: Do you think value investing is still relevant in a GDP-decreasing world? And, what about passive investing? Charlie Munger: Well, that is easy. Value Investing will never go out of style. Because value investing—the way I conceive it—is always wanting to get more value than you pay for when you buy a stock. That approach will never go out of style. Some people think that value investing is you chase companies that have a lot of cash and they’re in a lousy business or something. I don’t define that as value investing. I think all good investing is value investing. It’s just that some people look for values in strong companies and some look for values in weak companies. Every value investor tries to get more value than he pays for. What is interesting is that in wealth management, a lot of people think that if they have a hundred stocks they’re investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five. I regard this as insanity. Absolute insanity. I find it much easier to find four or five investments where I have a pretty reasonable chance of being right that they’re way above average. I think it’s much easier to find five than it is to find a hundred. I call it deworsification—which I copied from somebody. I’m way more comfortable owning two or three stocks which I think I know something about and where I think I have an advantage.

提问:伯克希尔·哈撒韦在快速减持富国银行的股票,而《每日新闻》只卖了一股,原因是什么?如果富国银行对伯克希尔来说不够好,我们是不是也应该用同样的标准?

查理·芒格:嗯,我不认为我们在所有事情上都必须完全一致。我们的税务考虑不同。毫无疑问的是,富国银行让像伯克希尔这样的长期投资者感到失望,因为老管理层——现在已被撤换——并非故意恶意或偷窃,但他们的判断力极差,建立了一种交叉销售的文化,在这种文化中,低薪员工的激励过高,导致他们推销客户并不真正需要的东西。而且,当证据表明这个系统运行得不太好,因为一些员工在欺骗部分客户时,他们反而严厉对待客户,而不是改变系统。那是一个重大的判断错误。当然,这很令人遗憾。

所以,你可以理解为什么沃伦对富国银行感到失望。我想我比他稍微宽容一些。我对银行家的期望比他低。

提问:持有银行股相比其他股票有什么智慧?它们更稳定吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为所有股票都可能波动。我确实认为,如果银行经营得当,会是一项非常好的业务。但是,一位非常睿智的人士早前说过:银行业的问题在于,我们拥有的银行比银行家多。

那种拥有巴菲特式思维模式、从不惹麻烦的高管是少数派,不是多数派。要明智地经营银行很难。有太多诱惑让人去做蠢事,这些事会让下一季度的盈利上升,但对长期不利。一些银行家屈服于诱惑。这很难,但并非不可能成功投资银行股。

提问:从长期来看,美国银行和合众银行——这两家都是《每日新闻》公司的股权投资——面临的最大竞争威胁是什么?是像 PayPal、Square 或 Apple Pay 这样的数字钱包?是比特币、去中心化金融,还是其他东西?

查理·芒格:嗯,我不认为我确切知道银行业的未来是什么样子,我也不认为我知道支付系统将如何演变。我确实认为,一家经营得当的银行是对文明的巨大贡献,而世界各国的中央银行都喜欢控制自己的银行系统和货币供应。

所以,我不认为比特币最终会成为世界的交换媒介。它波动太大,无法很好地充当交换媒介。它实际上是一种黄金的人造替代品,而我从不买任何黄金,也从不买任何比特币。我建议其他人效仿我的做法。比特币让我想起了奥斯卡·王尔德对猎狐的评价。他说,那是不可言说者追逐不可食之物。

Question: Why is Berkshire Hathaway selling shares of Wells Fargo as quickly as one can and the Daily Journal has sold one share? If it’s not good enough for Berkshire, shouldn’t we have the same standards? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t think it’s required that we be exactly the same on everything. We have different tax considerations. There’s no question about the fact that Wells Fargo has disappointed long-term investors like Berkshire because the old management—which is now removed—were not consciously malevolent or thieving but they had terrible judgment in having a culture of cross-selling where the incentives on the poorly paid employees were too great to sell stuff that customers didn’t really need. And when the evidence came in that the system wasn’t working very well because some of the employees were cheating some of the customers, they came down hard on the customers instead of changing the system. That was a big error in judgment. And, of course, it’s regrettable. So, you can understand why Warren got disenchanted with Wells Fargo. I think I’m a little more lenient. I expect less out of bankers than he does. Question: What is the wisdom behind holding bank stocks compared to other stocks. Are they more stable? Charlie Munger: Well, I think all stocks can fluctuate. I do think banking run intelligently is a very good business. But, a very wise man said on an earlier occasion: The trouble with banking is that we have more banks than we have bankers. The kind of executives who have a Buffett-like mindset and never get in trouble are a minority group, not a majority group. It’s hard to run a bank intelligently. There’s a lot of temptation to do dumb things which will make the earnings next quarter go up but are bad for the long term. And some bankers yield to the temptations. It’s difficult, but it’s not impossible investing in bank stocks successfully. Question: What is the biggest competitive threat to U.S. banks like Bank of America and US Bank—both equity holdings of the Daily Journal Corporation—over the long term? Is it digital wallets like PayPal, Square, or Apple Pay? Is it Bitcoin, decentralized finance, or something else? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t think I know exactly what the future of banking is and I don’t think I know how the payment system will evolve. I do think that a properly run bank is a great contributor to civilization and that the central banks of the world like controlling their own banking system and their own money supplies. So, I don’t think Bitcoin is going to end up as the medium of exchange for the world. It’s too volatile to serve well as a medium of exchange. It’s really kind of an artificial substitute for gold, and since I never buy any gold, I never buy any Bitcoin. I recommend that other people follow my practice. Bitcoin reminds me of what Oscar Wilde said about fox hunting. He said it was the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable.

问:您对加密货币的看法是否依然未变?《每日邮报》会不会像特斯拉最近那样,把比特币或其他加密货币作为资产负债表上的资产?

查理·芒格:我们不会效仿特斯拉买比特币。

问:比亚迪在《每日邮报》股票投资组合中账面盈利很大。这只股票去年和今年涨幅惊人,其升值幅度可能远超内在价值。您如何决定是继续持有还是卖出部分?

查理·芒格:嗯,这是个非常好的问题。比亚迪股票在我们持有头五年里毫无表现,去年它涨了五倍。原因在于,比亚迪在中国汽车生产从燃油车向电动车转型的过程中占据了非常有利的位置。可以想象,它的处境极好,这让中国人兴奋不已——中国又不缺疯狂的投机者。所以股价就涨上去了。

我们欣赏这家公司,也喜欢它的位置。当我们卖出时,要给联邦政府和加州政府交一大笔税。总体而言,有些仓位我们本不会新建,但还是会继续持有。几乎每个人都这么做。

我一位做风投的聪明朋友,经常在价格高得离谱时拿到大笔股票。他的做法是永远卖掉大约一半。这样无论后来发生什么,他都觉得自己很聪明。我不效仿这种做法,但也不批评。

问:您认为电动车制造商的估值处于泡沫区间吗?伯克希尔和李录都持有您过去高度评价的比亚迪。比亚迪市盈率接近 200 倍。相比特斯拉目前超过 1100 倍的市盈率和 24 倍的市销率,这还算便宜。我知道伯克希尔是长期持有者,很少仅仅因为估值过高就卖出组合中的优质公司股票,比如过去的可口可乐。但是否存在一个价格,高到公司未来的利润根本无法证明其合理性?既然谈到卖出可能被高估的证券,您能讲讲您的卖出体系吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我很少持有像比亚迪这样涨到天价的公司,所以我觉得自己还没形成一套体系。我也是边做边学。你可以相信这一点:如果我们真的喜欢一家公司和它的管理层——我们对比亚迪就是这种感觉——我们很可能会有点过于忠诚。我觉得这一点不会改变。

问:为什么大约两年前您认为好市多是唯一值得买入的美国股票?为什么您觉得亚马逊更怕好市多,而不是好市多更怕亚马逊?既然您认为杰夫·贝佐斯是您认识的最优秀的企业家之一,那么他既然不再需要操心亚马逊的日常事务,必然会集中精力搞新项目,您会不会考虑早期投资他的这些项目?

查理·芒格:我非常欣赏杰夫·贝佐斯,认为他是史上最聪明的企业家之一。但我不会跟着他干。我们有自己的怪癖,我对此了解不够,不想涉足那个领域。面对这些棘手的问题,很多非常聪明、受人尊敬的人会得出相反的结论。

好市多确实有一点是亚马逊没有的:人们真的信任好市多会提供巨大价值。这就是好市多对亚马逊构成威胁的原因。在提供价值方面,好市多的声誉比几乎任何公司都好,包括亚马逊。

问:当通用电气这样形象良好的合理公司迅速跌入股市谷底时,您如何控制自己的投资?您如何识别所持或投资的公司可能出现的衰落?或者说,是否不可能足够快地发现恶化,从而在亏损前退出?

查理·芒格:我从未持有过通用电气的股票,因为我不喜欢它的文化。当它崩盘时,我毫不意外。我确实认为现任 CEO 是一位能力非凡的人,董事会让他掌舵是极其明智的选择。而且我认为通用电气董事会让拉里·卡尔普担任 CEO,这值得高度赞扬。如果有人能修复这家公司,那就是他。

问:您以通过心理清单进行投资而闻名。有没有什么东西是您希望更早加入清单的?

查理·芒格:嗯,我经常犯错,事后回想才意识到本应做出不同的决定。我认为这是不可避免的,因为做好投资者很难。

如今我对自己相当宽容。我对事情的发展结果感到满意,别人做得更好时我也不会咬牙切齿。

我认为我使用的方法,包括那些清单,都是正确的方法。我很感激自己早早找到了它们,而且这些方法的效果如此之好。我建议其他人效仿我的做法。

这让我想起班扬《天路历程》中的关键句:我把剑留给能佩剑的人。恐怕我们所有人都只能这样把剑留下。

问:您和沃伦善于快速判断人,尤其是商业领袖和潜在商业伙伴。您看中领导者什么特质?您和沃伦是否有任何技巧或捷径,可以快速准确地判断人?

查理·芒格:嗯,这是个好问题。我认为我们并没有所谓的魔法技巧。我们只是尽量多接触、多观察,最终会形成一种直觉。但这需要很多年的经验积累。我不认为有什么捷径可走。

Question: Has your opinion on cryptocurrencies remained the same? And would the Daily Journal consider Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as an asset on the balance sheet similar to what Tesla recently did? Charlie Munger: We will not be following Tesla into bitcoin. Question: BYD is in the Daily Journal stock portfolio with a very big paper gain. The stock has gained so much this year and last year. The stock appreciated probably way more than intrinsic value. How do you decide to hold on to a stock or sell some? Charlie Munger: Well, that’s a very good question. BYD stock did nothing for the first five years we held it. Last year it quintupled. What happened is that BYD is very well positioned for the transfer of Chinese automobile production from gasoline-driven cars to electricity-driven cars. You can imagine it’s in a wonderful position and that excited the people in China which has its share of crazy speculators. And so, the stock went way up. We admire the company and like its position. And we pay huge taxes to a combination of the federal government and the state of California when we sell something. On balance, we hold in certain of these position when, normally, we wouldn’t buy a new position. Practically everybody does that. One of my smartest friends in venture capital is constantly getting huge clumps of stocks at nosebleed prices. And what he does is he sells about half of them always. That way, whatever happens, he feels smart. I don’t follow that practice but I don’t criticize it either. Question: Do you believe the valuations for electric car manufacturers are in bubble territory? Both Berkshire and Li Lu own BYD Company which you spoke highly of in the past. BYD sells at nearly 200 P/E. This is cheap compared to Tesla currently valued at over 1100 times P/E and 24 times sales. I know Berkshire is a long-term owner and rarely sells securities of high-quality companies it owns in its portfolio simply because it’s overvalued. For example, Coca-Cola in the past. However, is there a price too high that the company’s future profits simply cannot justify? And since we are on the subject of selling potentially overvalued security, could you provide your systems for selling securities? Charlie Munger: Well, I so rarely hold a company like BYD that goes to a nosebleed price that I don’t think I’ve got a system yet. I’m just learning as I go along. I think you can count on the fact that if we really like the company and we like the management—and that is the way we feel about BYD—we’re likely to be a little too loyal. I don’t think we’ll change on that. Question: Why, almost two years ago, did you believe that Costco was the only U.S. stock worth buying? And why did you feel that Amazon had more to fear from Costco than Costco had to fear from Amazon? And if you believe Jeff Bezos is one of the best businessmen you have ever known, would you consider investing early in any of the new projects he will inevitably focus his attention on now that he will not have to be as concerned about the day to day responsibilities of Amazon? Charlie Munger: I’m a great admirer of Jeff Bezos whom I consider one of the smartest businessmen who ever lived. But I won’t be following him. We have our crotchets and I just don’t know enough about it to want to go into that activity. When you get into these hard questions, there’s a lot of very intelligent honorable people who reach opposite conclusions. Costco I do think has one thing that Amazon does not. People really trust Costco will be delivering enormous value. And that is why Costco presents some danger to Amazon. They’ve got a better reputation for providing value than practically anybody, including Amazon. Question: How do you control your investments in a world where reasonable companies with a good image like General Electric sink rapidly into the bottomland of the stock market. How do you recognize a potential downfall in a company you hold/invest in? Or, is it impossible to realize a deterioration quickly enough to exit without a loss? Charlie Munger: Well, I never owned a share of General Electric because I didn’t like the culture. And, I was not surprised when it blew up. I do think the present CEO is an extraordinarily able man and the directors made a very wise choice when they put him in charge. And I think the directors of GE deserve a lot of credit for making Larry Culp the CEO. If anybody can fix it, he can. Question: You famously run investments through your mental checklist. Is there anything that you wish you had added to your checklist sooner? Charlie Munger: Well, I’m constantly making mistakes where I can, in retrospect, realize that I should have decided differently. And I think that that is inevitable because it’s difficult to be a good investor. I’m pretty easy on myself these days. I’m satisfied with the way things have worked out and I’m not gnashing my teeth when other people are doing better. I think that the methods that I’ve used including the checklists are the correct methods and I’m grateful that I found them as early as I did and that the methods have worked as well as they have. I recommend that other people follow my example. It reminds me of the key phrase and Bunyan’s Pilgrim’s Progress in which he says: My sword I leave to him who can wear it. I’m afraid that’s the way we all have to leave our swords. Question: You and Warren have been adept at quickly sizing people up, particularly business leaders and potential business partners. What do you look for in a leader? And do you and Warren have any tricks or shortcuts to size people up quickly and accurately?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,如果一个人是个长期酒鬼,我们会避开他。每个人都有捷径来筛选某些风险。我们可能比其他人有更多这样的捷径。多年来,它们对我们来说一直很管用。

伯克希尔运营方式的一大优势,就是我们与许多杰出的人交往。如果你停下来想想,《每日新闻》也是一样。哪家小报业公司比小小的《每日新闻》更好地度过了这场摧毁所有报纸的危机?我们这里一直有杰出的人帮助我们度过非常困难的时期,其中一位就是格里·萨尔兹曼。

格里和我在一起多久了,格里?

杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼:70 年代初。

查理·芒格:70 年代初。这相当有趣。我很早就意识到,格里可以经营任何他想经营的东西。当《每日新闻》的老 CEO 去世时,格里正在管理芒格·托尔斯律师事务所的业务事务。但他之前为里克·格林和我工作,经营我们买下控制权的一个小型共同基金。他留下了非常良好的印象。

我对里克说,我们要让格里担任《每日新闻》的负责人。他倒吸一口气说,但他从来没有跟报纸或任何东西打过交道。我说这不要紧,他能做到。我们立刻提升了格里,让他接手,自那以后他做出的每一个决定都堪称完美。这就是我们的体系。

汤姆·墨菲曾经说过,他的管理体系中,授权只差一点就成了完全放任。而我们对格里就是这么做的。

提问:你觉得哪个更疯狂?比特币 5 万美元,还是特斯拉完全摊薄后 1 万亿美元的企业价值。你怎么看这两个定价?

查理·芒格:嗯,我遇到和塞缪尔·约翰逊曾经遇到类似问题时一样的困境。他说,我无法决定跳蚤和虱子之间哪个更糟糕。我对这两个选择感受相同,我不知道哪个更糟。

提问:既然罗宾汉交易是免费的,是否应该对买入股票征税?

查理·芒格:罗宾汉的交易不是免费的。当你为订单流付费时,你很可能是在向客户收取更多费用,却假装是免费的。这是一种非常不光彩、低级的话术。没人应该相信罗宾汉的交易是免费的。

Charlie Munger: Well, of course, if a person is a chronic drunk, we avoid him. Everybody has shortcuts to screen out certain hazards. And we probably have more of those shortcuts than others. They’ve served us well over the years. One of the great advantages of the way Berkshire operates is that we associate with a lot of marvelous people. And if you stop to think about it, that is also true at the Daily Journal. What little newspaper company has come through the crisis of this destroying of all the newspapers better than the little Daily Journal? And we’ve had marvelous people here to help us do it through very difficult times and one of them is Gerry Salzman. Gerry and I have been together, how many years Gerry? Gerald Salzman: Early 70s. Charlie Munger: Early 70s. And it’s rather interesting. I recognized early that Gerry could run anything he wanted to run. And when the old CEO of the Daily Journal died, Gerry was managing the business affairs of the Munger Tolles law firm. But he previously worked for Rick Guerin and me in running a little mutual fund that we bought control of. And he made a very favorable impression. I said to Rick, we’re going to make Gerry the head of the Daily Journal. He gasped and said, but he’s never had anything to do with newspapers or anything else. I said it won’t matter. He’ll be able to do it. And we immediately ascended, we put Gerry in, and he’s made every decision wonderfully ever since. That’s our system. Tom Murphy used to say that his system of management was to delegate just short of total abdication. And that’s the way we handled Gerry. Question: Which do you think is crazier? Bitcoin at 50,000 or Tesla’s fully diluted enterprise value of 1 trillion. What do you make of these two pricings? Charlie Munger: Well, I have the same difficulty that Samuel Johnson once had when he got a similar question. And he said; I can’t decide the order of presidency between a flee and a louse. I feel the same way about those choices. I don’t know which is worse. Question: Should there be a tax on buying stock now that Robinhood trades are free? Charlie Munger: Robinhood trades are not free. When you pay for order flow, you’re probably charging your customers more and pretending to be free. It’s a very dishonorable low-grade way to talk. Nobody should believe that Robinhood’s trades are free.

提问:我的问题有关中国。1860 年,中国人均 GDP 是 600 美元。1978 年,邓小平接手那年,降到 300 美元。今天,这个数字大约在 9500 美元。人类历史上,从未有过如此迅速的脱贫壮举——大约 8 亿人摆脱了赤贫。您曾公开表示,是中国人的勤劳美德和儒家价值观的狂热拥趸。从美中关系不断恶化可以看出,西方世界并不了解中国。我们能做些什么,来增进对中华文明的认知、理解和欣赏?

查理·芒格:嗯,人们自然认为自己的文明和国家比别的都好。但不可能每个人都比所有人好。

你说得对。中国在大国中的经济纪录,是世界历史上最出色的。这非常有意思。

很多人认为,既然英国引领了工业革命,又很早就有了言论自由,那么按照亚当·斯密的说法,言论自由是经济繁荣的必要条件。但中国人证明了,你不需要言论自由也能拥有强大的经济。他们只是照搬了亚当·斯密,跳过了言论自由这部分,而对它们来说效果很好。

事实上,我不确定如果中国照搬了英国文明的每一个方面,结果会不会更好。我认为它们反而会更糟,因为它们的处境如此严峻,贫困如此极端,需要极其极端的方法才能摆脱困境。所以我认为中国所做的,很可能对中国来说是正确的事。我们不应该那么自以为是,去告诉中国人该像我们一样行事,因为我们喜欢自己和自己的制度。我们的制度适合我们,他们的制度适合他们,这完全可能。

提问:芒格先生是 Champion 中国股票的。他有多担心最近看到的蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴和马云先生所遭遇的中国政府干预?比方说,有什么能阻止中国政府某一天突然决定国有化比亚迪?

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为那非常不可能。而且,我觉得马云告诉中国政府他们有多愚蠢、多荒谬的政策等等,是非常傲慢的。考虑到他们的制度,那不是他该做的事。

我认为中国在管理经济方面表现得非常精明,它们取得的成绩比我们在管理自家经济上取得的还要好。我认为这很可能会持续下去。

当然,我们都热爱自己拥有的那种文明。我不是说我想到中国生活。我更喜欢美国。但我确实钦佩中国所取得的成就。你怎么能不钦佩呢?没有哪个国家能如此迅速地把一个大国从贫困中拉出来,做到这个份上。

Question: My question concerns China. In 1860, GDP per capita in China was 600. In 1978, the year Deng Xiaoping took over, it was 300. Today, it hovers around 9500. Never before in the history of mankind have we seen such a rapid eradication of poverty, pulling approximately 800 million people out of destitution. You are on record as a zealous fan of the Chinese work ethic and Confucian value system. As we can see from the deteriorating U.S. relationship with China, the Western world does not understand China. What can we do to increase knowledge, understanding, and appreciation of the Chinese civilization? Charlie Munger: Well, it’s natural for people to think their own civilization and their own nation are better than everybody else. But everybody can’t be better than everybody else. You’re right. China’s economic record among the big nations is the best that ever existed in the history of the world. And that’s very interesting. A lot of people assume that since England led the Industrial Revolution and had free speech early that free speech is required to have a booming economy as prescribed by Adam Smith. But the Chinese have proved that you don’t need free speech to have a wonderful economy. They just copied Adam Smith and left out the free speech and it worked fine for them. As a matter of fact, it’s not clear to me that China would have done better if they’d copied every aspect of English civilization. I think they would have come out worse because their position was so dire and the poverty was so extreme, they needed very extreme methods to get out of the fix they were in. So I think what China has done was probably right for China and that we shouldn’t be so pompous as to be telling the Chinese they ought to behave like us because we like ourselves and our system. It’s entirely possible that our system is right for us and their system is right for them. Question: Mr. Munger is a champion of Chinese stocks. How concerned is he about Chinese government interference as seen recently with Ant Financial, Alibaba, and Mr. Jack Ma. What, for example, is to stop the Chinese government from simply deciding one day to nationalize BYD? Charlie Munger: Well, I consider that very unlikely. And, I think Jack Ma was very arrogant to be telling the Chinese government how dumb they were, how stupid their policies were, and so forth. Considering their system, that is not what he should have been doing. I think the Chinese have behaved very shrewdly in managing their economy and they’ve gotten better results than we have in managing our economy. I think that that will probably continue. Sure, we all love the kind of civilization we have. I’m not saying I wanted to live in China. I prefer the United States. But I do admire what the Chinese have done. How can you not? Nobody else has ever taken a big country out of poverty so fast and so on.

我在中国看到的景象让我震惊。中国的工厂里到处是机器人,运转得非常出色。他们不再靠农村女工把美国小鞋企打得头破血流了。他们正在非常迅速地融入现代世界,运营能力也越来越强。

提问:美联储当前将利率维持在零附近的做法,似乎只会让金融资产持有者受益,从而加剧美国的收入不平等。您认为,我们该如何帮助那些因这场疫情而掉队的人?

查理·芒格:很难知道哪种宏观经济政策才是正确的。没有人确切知道多少政府干预才算明智,也不知道政府应该在什么时候停止干预。

我并不认为我们在宏观经济预测方面有什么过人天赋。在一定程度上,抱怨富人因疫情恐慌而变得更富,这是一种放错地方的担忧。没有人刻意想让富人更富。我们是在极端条件下努力拯救整个经济。我认为,总体而言,我们做出了当时最切合实际的决定。

我们让富人更富了,但这不是有意为之,而是试图拯救整个文明时产生的意外副产品。而且,我们当时那样做很可能是明智的。这并非富人的恶意所致,而是一个意外。下次,穷人的致富速度会比富人更快。这种循环是变化的。

哪个阶级的致富速度更快,会随着时间而变化,我认为任何人都不必过于担心。事实上,要让一个国家富裕起来,你就需要一个自由市场体系。如果按照亚当·斯密所推荐的方式,靠自由市场体系去致富,那么这是一个非常令人恼火的体系,因为造成如此多苦难的贫困,同时也带来了让人们摆脱贫困的增长。换句话说,在某种程度上,这是一个自我纠正的系统。这让整件事变得非常棘手。经济学教科书没有强调经济增长在多大程度上需要依赖贫困来摆脱贫困,这实在令人遗憾。如果你试图过多地减少贫困,反而会适得其反。这些都是非常复杂的问题,而大多数人认为它们很简单。如果我们把最低工资提高成每秒 10 万美元就能让世界变得更富裕,我们当然会这么做,但问题是做不到。

提问:芒格先生近期对政府印钞的规模敲响了警钟。您对现代货币理论有何看法?

查理·芒格:现代货币理论意味着人们不像过去那样担心政府印钞和花钱会导致像魏玛共和国那样的恶性通胀灾难了。

What I see in China now just staggers me. There are factories in China that are just absolutely full of robots and are working beautifully. They’re no longer using peasant girls to beat the brains out of our little shoe companies in America. They are joining the modern world very rapidly and they’re getting very skillful at operating. Question: It seems likely that the current Fed policy of keeping interest rates near zero will only exacerbate the income disparity in this country by benefiting those who own the financial assets. What do you think we can do to help those who are currently falling behind as a result of this pandemic? Charlie Munger: It’s hard to know what exact macroeconomic policy is correct. No one knows for sure just how much government intervention is wise and at what point the government should stop intervening. I don’t think we have any great gift at making macroeconomic predictions. I think that to some extent the complaint about the rich getting richer as a result of the COVID panic is a misplaced concern. Nobody was trying to make the rich richer. We were trying to save the whole economy under terrible conditions. And I think, by and large, we made the most practical decisions that were available to us. We made the rich richer, not as a deliberate choice, but because it was an accidental byproduct of trying to save the whole civilization. And it was probably wise that we acted exactly as we did. It wasn’t some malevolence of the rich that caused it. It was an accident. And the next time around the poor will get richer faster than the rich. That thing circulates. Who gets rich faster by class is going to vary over time and I don’t think anybody should be too concerned by it. As a matter of fact, what happens is to make a nation rich, you need a free market system. And if you have a free market system that’s trying to get rich in the way recommended by Adam Smith, what happens is that it’s a very irritating system because the poverty that causes so much misery is also causing the growth that makes everybody get out of poverty. In other words, to some extent, it’s a self-correcting system. That makes the whole thing very awkward. And it’s a shame that the economics textbooks don’t emphasize how much a growing economy needs poverty in order to get out of poverty. If you try and reduce the poverty too much, it’s counterproductive. These are very difficult questions and most people assume that it’s simple. If we could make the world richer by just raising the minimum wage to $100,000 a second or something, of course we would do it but. But we can’t. Question: Mr. Munger recently raised the alarm about the level of money printing taking place. What are his thoughts on modern monetary theory? Charlie Munger: Modern monetary theory means that people are less worried about an inflationary disaster like Weimar Germany from government printing of money and spending it.

到目前为止的证据表明,或许现代货币理论是正确的。让我持怀疑态度。我不知道答案。

问:美联储似乎正在支持资产价格。考虑到这对制造金融过度和收入不平等的影响,您认为这是否是一个值得追求的政策目标?您认为长期后果会是什么?

查理·芒格:嗯,我不知道未来经济会运行得如何。我也不认为我们或《每日日报》能因为拥有什么了不起的宏观经济洞察而领先。

我确实认为,我对不平等的恐惧远低于那些为此痛心疾首的大多数人。我认为不平等绝对是实行让国家变得日益富裕并提升穷人地位的政策所带来的必然结果。所以,我不介意一点不平等,而我注意到的是,富裕家庭通常很快就会失去他们的权力和财富。因此,我不担心这个国家会被少数比我们其他人跑得快一点点的人毁掉。

我认为中国人非常聪明。想象一下,一群中国共产主义者匆匆将大量中国人变成亿万富翁。而中国共产主义者对遗产税做了什么?中国的遗产税是零。这就是共产主义者在做的事情。顺便说一句,我认为他们很可能是对的。

问:许多人认为,这场疫情加剧的不平等已达到令人震惊的程度,需要征收财富税等激进的解决方案。您是否同意这一前提?如果同意,您将如何解决不平等问题?

查理·芒格:我认为任何富国都应该有一个随着其财富增长而适当扩大的社会安全网。这就是我一生中一直在做的事情。我赞同这个结果。我认为,如果任何一个政党在整个时期内单独掌权,结果会更糟。换句话说,我认为我们的开国者赋予我们的制衡与选举制度,在我一生中实际上给了我们相当正确的政策。我希望未来这种情况能继续下去。但我确实认为,美国的政治正变得比以前更加充满仇恨和非理性,我认为这不好。

问:许多大企业和超高净值人士一直在离开加利福尼亚州。您能谈谈原因、趋势,并做一些预测吗?

查理·芒格:是的,我认为这个趋势在我们说话的时候还在加剧。我看到越来越多的富人离开。当然,我认为任何州对富人友好都是极其愚蠢的。他们带来的好处远大于坏处。他们很快就会失去自己的钱。你不需要为他们担心。

So far the evidence would be that maybe the monetary modern monetary theory is right. Put me down as skeptical. I don’t know the answer. Question: The Federal Reserve appears to be supporting asset prices. Do you think this is a worthwhile policy objective given the effect it has on creating financial excesses and income inequality? What do you think the long-term consequences will be? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t know how well the economy’s doing to work in the future. And I don’t think that we or the Daily Journal is getting ahead because we’ve got some wonderful macroeconomic insight. I do think that I’m way less afraid of inequality than most people who are bleeding about it. I think that inequality is absolutely an inevitable consequence of having the policies that make a nation grow richer and richer and elevate the poor. So, I don’t mind a little inequality and what I notice is that the rich families generally lose their power and wealth—and pretty fast. So I don’t worry that the country is being ruined by a few people over getting ahead a little faster than the rest of us. I think the Chinese were very smart. Imagine a bunch of Chinese communists turning a whole lot of Chinese and the billionaires in a big hurry. And what did the Chinese communists do with respect to death taxes? The death tax in China is zero. That’s what the communists are doing. I think they’re probably right, by the way. Question: Many believe that inequality accelerated by this pandemic has reached alarming levels that demand drastic solutions such as a wealth tax. Do you agree with the premise and if so how would you address inequality? Charlie Munger: I think any rich nation ought to have a social safety net that expands a little with its wealth. That’s what we’ve been doing throughout my whole lifetime. And I applaud the result. I think the result would have been worse if either party had been in control all by itself for the whole period. In other words, I think the system of checks and balances and elections that our founders gave us actually gave us pretty much the right policies during my lifetime. I hope that that will continue in the future. But I do think politics is getting more full of hatred and irrationality than it used to be in America and I don’t think that’s good. Questions: Many major businesses and high net worth individuals have been leaving California. Can you speak to the causes, the trend, and make some predictions? Charlie Munger: Yes, I think that is rising as we sit here. I just see more and more of the rich people leaving. And, of course, I think it’s vastly stupid for any state to be user-friendly to the rich people. They do way more good than harm. They lose their money fast enough. You don’t need to worry about them.

华盛顿州目前正在州层面考虑征收财富税。我认为这简直是疯了。我预言,如果他们真这么干,会有很多人离开华盛顿州。

现场股东:考虑到 Zoom 和其他科技带来的远程办公,您认为商业地产的未来会是什么样?

查理·芒格:房地产向来是个困难的领域。近年来,某些类型的房地产尤其困难。我认为办公楼现在遇到了一些麻烦,当然,租给商店的商业地产已经麻烦了好长时间。公寓的情况相对好些。但我觉得自己没什么能多说的。我持有一些公寓楼,所以喜欢这类投资,前提是你有完美的管理——这很难找。

现场股东:我想请教您对 Haven(美国三大巨头合办的医疗合资企业)的看法,特别是它最终为何关闭?从中学到了什么教训?

查理·芒格:我对 Haven 一无所知。换个问题吧。

现场股东:您多次说过,学习商业的最佳途径是研究优秀公司数十年的财务数据。您甚至说,不采用这种方法的商学院是在坑害学生。您能否详细说明,教授或个人应该如何围绕这种方法制定课程?比如,您会推荐什么课程材料?

查理·芒格:好吧,我的意思是这样。顺便说一句,哈佛商学院在很早创办时,一开始就是讲商业史。他们会带你走过运河建设、铁路建设,诸如此类。你会看到行业的潮起潮落,经济变化中的创造性破坏等等。那是帮助所有人的背景知识。当然,我说的是,如果我来教商业,我会像哈佛商学院很久以前那样开始。

我认为他们停掉这门课,是因为如果你教这门课,就会从各个营销学教授那里抢走最好的案例,等等。我觉得对他们来说,这在学术上不太方便。但当然,你在学习商业之前,应该先从研究资本主义的历史开始——它如何运作,为什么——然后才开始研究商业。而商学院在这方面做得并不好。

如果你停下来想一想,商业的长期成功很像生物学。在生物学中,个体都会死亡,最终所有物种也会消亡。资本主义几乎一样残酷。想想我一生中有多少东西消亡了。想想那些曾经繁荣、如今失败或消失的东西。我年轻时谁能想到,柯达和通用汽车会破产?你知道,这真是——发生的事情,在毁灭方面,简直不可思议。当然,那段历史是很有用的知识。

Washington State is actually considering a wealth tax at the state level. I think that would be insanity. I predict that if they do that, a lot of people will leave Washington. Question: With all the work from home with Zoom and other technology, what do you think the future of commercial real estate looks like? Charlie Munger: Real estate has always been a difficult field. And some types of real estate in recent years has been particularly difficult. I think office buildings are now in some trouble and, of course, commercial real estate rented to stores has been in a lot of trouble for a long time. Apartments have come through better. But, I don’t think I’ve got a lot to contribute. I own some apartment houses, so I like that investment, provided you’ve got a perfect management which is hard to get. Question: I was wondering if you could share some thoughts on Haven, particularly why it was ultimately closed. What were the lessons learned? Charlie Munger: I don’t know anything about Haven. Give me a new question. Question: You’ve said several times that the best way to learn about business is to study the multi-decade financial results of great companies. You’ve even said business schools that don’t adopt this method are doing their students a disservice. Would you mind elaborating on how a professor or individual should go about building a curriculum around this approach? What, for example, would you recommend as course materials? Charlie Munger: Well, here’s what I meant. By the way, the Harvard Business School, when it started out way early, they started out with a history of the business. They’d take you through the building of the canals and the building of the railroads and so on and so on. You saw the ebb and flow of industry and the creative destruction of the economic changes and so on. It was a background that helped everybody. And, of course, what I’m saying is that if I were teaching business I would start the way Harvard Business School did a long time ago. I think they stopped because if you taught that course, you’d be stealing the best cases from the individual professors of marketing and so on and so on. And I just think it was academically inconvenient for them. But, of course, you should start out by studying the history of capitalism, how it worked, and why before you start studying business. And they don’t do that very well—I’m talking about the business schools. If you stop to think about it, business success long term is a lot like biology. And in biology, what happens is the individuals all die, and eventually, so do all the species. Capitalism is almost as brutal as that. Think of what’s died in my lifetime. Just think of the things that were once prosperous that are now in failure or gone. Whoever dreamed when I was young that Kodak and General Motors would go bankrupt. You know, it’s just, it’s incredible what’s happened in terms of the destruction. Of course, that history is useful to know.

提问者:[提问者] 引用了您 2007 年在南加州大学法学院毕业典礼上的演讲。我转述一下:如果一个文明只有在发明了“发明的方法”之后才能进步,那么一个人也只有学会了“学习的方法”才能进步。我非常幸运,进入法学院时已经掌握了学习的方法。在我漫长的一生中,没有什么比持续学习对我更有帮助。[提问者] 想知道查理的“学习的方法”是什么。

查理·芒格:我觉得我拥有正确的性情。当别人给我一个好主意,而我能看出它确实是个好主意时,我会迅速掌握它,并在余生中一直使用它。你可能会说,每个人在学习过程中都这么做,但我认为并非如此。这个想法就这么简单。

没有学习的方法,你就像一个在踢屁股比赛中只有一条腿的人。那根本行不通。

就拿格里来说吧。你认为如果格里不懂得如何学习新东西,现在的《每日新闻》能拥有数亿美元的可交易证券吗?我们让他主管《每日新闻》时,他对那份报纸一窍不通。但他知道如何学习自己不懂的东西。当然,这可是一项有用的本事。顺便说一句,我认为这很难教。我觉得在某种程度上,你要么有这种能力,要么就没有。

提问者:为什么有些人就是无法学习新观念和新行为?

查理·芒格:部分原因是文化,但很大程度上是天生如此,这是一种怪癖。有些人天生就有良好的判断力,而对另一些人来说,他们的人生就是一次又一次地重复犯错。

提问者:2005 年,您用大量新内容修订了关于人类误判常见原因的著名演讲。现在 16 年过去了,有新的内容吗?

查理·芒格:没有,我觉得……当然,在误判方面有一些新内容。但是,但总的来说,大部分知识已经存在很长时间了。

阻止有用的心理学洞见被广泛使用的因素是,当你把心理学与其他所有知识整合起来时,它才变得真正有用。但心理学系不教这个,因为学术体系奖励的是那些能对心理倾向带来更多洞见的小实验,而不是把已有的发现与其他知识体系综合起来。心理学教授对其他知识了解得并不算多,也没有动力去掌握它。如果你没有掌握其他知识,就无法将它与心理学综合起来。这是一个关于自我学习的有趣例子。

Question: [The questioner] quotes a commencement address you gave in 2007 at USC Law School. I’ll paraphrase here. If a civilization can progress only when it invents the method of invention, you can only progress when you learn the method of learning. I was very lucky. I came to law school having learned the method of learning and nothing has served me better in my long life than continuous learning. [The questioner] would like to know what Charlie’s method of learning is. Charlie Munger: I think I had the right temperament. When people gave me a good idea and I could see it was a good idea, I quickly mastered it and started using it for the rest of my life. You’d say that everybody does that in their education but I don’t think everybody does. It’s such a simple idea. Without the method of learning, you’re like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. It’s just not gonna work. Take Gerry. Do you think the Daily Journal would have hundreds of millions of marketable securities now if Gerry didn’t know how to learn something new? He didn’t know one damn thing about the Daily Journal when we made him head of it. But he knew how to learn what he didn’t know. Of course, that’s a useful thing. And by the way, I think it’s hard to teach. I think it’s just to some extent you either have it or you don’t. Questions: Why are some people incapable of learning new ideas and behaviors? Charlie Munger: It’s partly culture but a lot of it is just born in and it’s a quirk. Some people have a natural trend toward good judgment, and with other people, their life is just a series of mistakes over and over again. Question: You have revised your famous talk on the standard causes of human misjudgment with considerable new material back in 2005. Now 16 years have passed. Is there any new material? Charlie Munger: No, I would say that… of course, there’s some new material in misjudgment. But, but by and large, most of the knowledge has been available for a long time. What prevents the wide use of helpful psychological insight is the fact that psychology gets really useful when you integrate it with all other knowledge. But they don’t teach that in the psychology department because the academic system rewards little experiments that develop more insight into psychological tendencies instead of synthesizing what’s already been discovered with the rest of knowledge. The psychology professors don’t know all that much about the rest of knowledge and they have no incentive to master it. If you don’t have master the rest of the knowledge you can’t synthesize it with psychology. That’s an interesting example of self-learning.

当我意识到心理学是必要的而我当时并不具备时,我并没有只为了在心理学课上拿 A 而去把那几十个小倾向学好。我把那些倾向学得足够透彻,能将其与其余知识融会贯通。这才是正确的做法。但你能找出一个知道该怎么做的心理学系吗?它是世界上最无知的行业之一。

提问:查理,你以倡导从自身错误中学习而闻名。从你在布伦特伍德的“达顿书店”大楼交易中能学到什么?未来你将如何运用这些新知识或经验?

查理·芒格:我想我学会了避开土地分区改造的工作。年轻时,我曾非常成功地将一些地产重新分区。结果我就像 Rip Van Winkle(瑞普·凡·温克尔,美国作家华盛顿·欧文笔下的短篇小说主角,一觉睡了 20 年)一样;当我试图重新找回节奏时,发现世界已经变了。我想你以后不会看到我参与大规模的土地分区改造工作了。

提问:对于那些努力坚守在自己的能力圈内,却发现技术创新的节奏正迅速缩小这个圈子的人,你有什么建议?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然了,如果他们引入一项你完全不懂的全新技术,你就处于某种不利地位。我的建议是,如果你的不利地位是可修复的,那就修复它。如果它无法修复,那就学着在没有它的世界里活下去。你还能怎么做呢?你能修好能修的东西,修不了的,就得忍受。

提问:你是我们时代最年长、最伟大的思想家之一。对于那些想要锻炼和提高自己同时持有两种相反观点能力的人,有什么建议吗?在这种情况下,如何产生洞察力?

查理·芒格:嗯,我确实有个建议。在我人生的某些时候,我给自己设定了一个我自认为对我很有帮助的标准:除非我能比站在另一方的人更好地陈述反对我结论的论点,否则我认为我还没有资格评论这个话题。如果你总是这么做;如果你在寻找反证并把自己放在火上烤,这是帮助消除无知的好方法。

实际情况是,每个人往往都会过度相信他辛苦找到的东西,或者他已经公开宣称自己相信的东西。换句话说,当我们大声喊出我们的知识时,我们实际上是在反复强调它,而不是在拓展它。我一直很明白这一点,所以我才接受了这些该死的股东大会。不过我一直挺安静的。

提问:尤金·阿贝格(Eugene Abegg)似乎是上世纪最优秀的银行家之一,在很长一段时间内,他同时实现了极低的贷款损失率和约 2% 的资产回报率。我认为今天的银行家可以从尤金身上学到很多,但人们对他知之甚少。

When I saw that psychology was necessary and I didn’t have it, I didn’t just learn the little tendencies well enough to get A’s in psychology. I learned those tendencies well enough to synthesize it with the rest of knowledge. And that’s the right way to do it. But show me a psychology department that knows how to do that. It’s one of the most ignorant professions in the world. Question: Charlie, you are known as an advocate for learning from one’s mistakes. What can you learn from the Barry “Dutton’s” bookstore building deal in Brentwood and how would you apply that new knowledge or experience in the future? Charlie Munger: I think I’ve learned to avoid zoning work. When I was young, I rezoned some properties very successfully. And I was like Rip Van Winkle; when I tried to come back to it, I found that the world had changed. And I don’t think you’ll find me engaged in the massive rezonings in the future. Question: What advice would you give to someone who is trying to stay within their circle of competence but finding that the pace of technical technological innovation is rapidly reducing that circle? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, if they bring in a brand new technology you don’t understand at all, you’re at something of a disadvantage. And my advice would be if you have a fixable disadvantage, remove it. And if it’s unfixable, learn to live without it. What else can you do? You fix what you can fit, and what you can’t fix, you endure. Question: You are one of the oldest and greatest thinkers of our time. Any tips for someone who wants to work on and improve their ability to hold two opposing views at the same time? Any tips on how to generate insight in these types of situations? Charlie Munger: Well, I do have a tip. At times in my life, I have put myself to a standard that I think has helped me: I think I’m not really equipped to comment on this subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than the people on the other side. If you do that all the time; if you’re looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that’s a good way to help remove ignorance. What happens is that every human being tends to believe way more than he should in what he’s worked hard to find out or where he’s announced publicly that he already believes. In other words, when we shout our knowledge out, we’re really pounding it out. We’re not enlarging it. And, I was always aware of that and so I’ve accepted these damned annual meetings. I’ve been pretty quiet. Question: Eugene Abegg seems like he was one of the best bankers of the last century, achieving both extremely low loan loss rates and earning around 2% on assets over a long time period. I think the bankers of today could learn a lot from Eugene, but little is known of him.

尤金是如何在长期内实现极低的贷款损失,而其他许多银行家却惨遭失败?

查理·芒格:呃,这问题简单。他是个非常聪明的人。他住在某个小镇,认识镇上的每个人、每件事。他判断力极佳,极度在意不发放坏账、不产生愚蠢的开支。所以,如果你希望永远不出麻烦,他就是个完美的银行家。

当然,认识镇上每个人确实帮了大忙。如果我当初留在奥马哈(我长大的地方)做银行业,我也会是个相当出色的银行家。因为就算在小时候,我也很清楚奥马哈谁靠谱、谁不靠谱。尤金在他那个社区就是这样。

此外,他经历过“大萧条”,曾做过银行的接管人。这当然让他对愚蠢的贷款极其警惕。而且,他痛恨成本。他就是个非常老派、思维稳健的人。

当然,那套方法现在仍然管用。但这对任何人来说都很难。他确实知道在伊利诺伊州的一个小镇上避免信贷损失所需的一切。

提问:查理,你长期以来一直钦佩新加坡和李光耀。你曾说过要研究李光耀的生平和事业,说你会大吃一惊。我很好奇,你是如何开始对新加坡和李光耀产生兴趣的?你见过李光耀本人吗?如果世界能从新加坡学到一件事,那会是什么?

查理·芒格:嗯,李光耀作为国家建设者的成绩是最好的。如果你愿意把小国也算在内,他可能拥有世界历史上最好的纪录。他接手的是一个疟疾横行的沼泽地,没有军队,什么都没有。不久,他就把它变成了一个繁荣昌盛的地方。

他做事的方法很简单。他反复念叨的口头禅非常简单。他说:“弄清楚什么管用,然后就去做。”听起来好像谁都知道这是有道理的。但你知道,大多数人并不这么做。他们没有花那么多精力去弄清楚什么管用、什么不管用。他们也没像他那样坚持不懈。

他是个非常聪明的人,有很多好主意。他硬是把一个疟疾横行的沼泽地,在自己的有生之年变成了现代化新加坡。这绝对令人难以置信。他是一党制,但选民随时可以让他下台,他不是独裁者。他实在太出色了,对腐败深恶痛绝,这是个非常好的主意。他几乎碰过的每一件事,都得到了改善。

How did Eugene achieve incredibly low loan losses over the long term while so many other bankers have failed miserably? Charlie Munger: Well that’s an easy one. He was a very smart man. He lived in a particular town. He knew everybody and everything. He had excellent judgment. He cared terribly about not making bad loans or incurring dumb expenses. So he was just a perfect banker if you wanted never to have any trouble. Of course, it really helped to know everybody in town. If I had stayed in Omaha, where I was raised, and gotten into the banking business, I would have been a hell of a good banker. Because even as a boy, I knew a lot about who was sound who wasn’t sound in Ohama. And that’s the way Eugene was in his community. Furthermore, he’d gone through the Great Depression. He’d been a receiver for a bank. Of course, that made him very leery of dumb loans. And, of course, he hated costs. He was just a very old-fashioned sound thinker. Of course, that will still work. But it’s hard for anybody. He really knew everything you had to do to avoid credit losses in a small town in Illinois. Question: Charlie, you have been a long-time admirer of Singapore and Lee Kuan Yew. You once said to study the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew. You are going to be flabbergasted. I would be curious to know how you started your interest in Singapore and Lee Kuan Yew. Have you met Lee Kuan Yew in person? And if there is one thing the world could learn from Singapore, what would that be? Charlie Munger: Well, Lee Kuan Yew had the best record as a nation builder. If you’re willing to count small nations in the group, he had probably the best record that ever existed in the history of the world. He took over a malarial swamp with no army, no nothing. And, pretty soon, he turned that into this gloriously prosperous place. His method for doing it was so simple. The mantra he said over and over again is very simple. He said, figure out what works and do it. Now, it sounds like anybody would know that made sense. But you know, most people don’t do that. They don’t work that hard at figuring out what works and what doesn’t. And they don’t just keep everlastingly at it the way he did. He was a very smart man and he had a lot of good ideas. He absolutely took over a malarial swamp and turned it into modern Singapore—in his own lifetime. It was absolutely incredible. He was a one party system but he could always be removed by the electorate. He was not a dictator. And he was just so good. He was death on corruption which was a very good idea. There’s hardly anything he touched he didn’t improve.

我看看现代新加坡的医疗体系,它的花费只有美国体系的 20%。而且,它的效果比我们的医疗系统好得多。这完全归功于李光耀的务实才能。他一次又一次地挑选出正确的制度。在新加坡,你一出生就有一个储蓄账户。如果你不花这笔钱,你和你的继承人最终都能花。换句话说,这是你自己的钱。所以,在某种程度上,在新加坡购买医疗服务的人都在自己掏钱。当然,人们花自己的钱时会更加理性。他一次又一次地做出类似的决定。这顺应了现实,而且效果比其他人做的要好得多。历史上像李光耀这样的人屈指可数。所以,我当然钦佩他。我家里有李光耀的半身像。我钦佩他到那种程度。

提问:目前投资界流传的最大谎言是什么?

查理·芒格:好吧,如果你要挑一个恶心的,免佣金交易绝对是个好候选人。免佣金交易并不免费。

提问:您认为最好在企业发展早期、行业还较幼小时买入其普通股,还是等它们成为更成熟行业的明确赢家后再买?

查理·芒格:我认为沃伦和我在收购成熟行业方面比支持像红杉那样的初创公司更在行。全世界最出色的风险投资机构可能就是红杉,他们在早期投资方面非常擅长。我可不想在自己的领域和红杉竞争。我觉得他们能把我玩弄于股掌之间。所以,我认为对某些人来说,早期投资是最好的选择;而对另一些人来说,我一生所做的则是最佳选择。

提问:去年,几乎所有电子商务、互联网以及与互联网相关的股票都上涨了 100% 以上。您最近说红杉是有史以来最伟大的投资公司。您认为数字经济是否已经达到一个转折点,以至于这次情况不同,针对这类公司的传统估值方法已经失效,还是说这种环境让您想起了 1999 年?您如何看待为一家增长但尚未盈利的企业支付收入 50 到 60 倍的价格,这与更传统的价值投资理念——安全边际——如何调和?

查理·芒格:嗯,总的来说,我不会试图与红杉竞争。你可以说我通过李录投资比亚迪时,已经很接近红杉了。那并非一家初创公司,但它规模太小、交易清淡,以至于我们买入的是一种风险资本类型的投资,只不过是在公开市场上而已。

When I look at the modern Singapore health system, it costs 20% of what the American system costs. And, of course, it works way better than our medical system. That’s entirely due to the practical talent of Lee Kuan Yew. Just time after time, he would choose the right system. In Singapore, you get a savings account the day you’re born. If you don’t spend the money, you and your heirs get to spend it eventually. In other words, it’s your money. So, to some extent, everybody buying medical services in Singapore is paying for it themselves. Of course, people behave more sensibly when they’re spending their own money. Just time after time he would do something like that. That recognized reality and worked way better than what other people were doing. There aren’t that many people like Lee Kuan Yew that have ever lived. So, of course, I admire him. I have a bust of Lee Kuan Yew in my house. I admire him that much. Question: What is the biggest lie currently being perpetuated by the investment complex? Charlie Munger: Well, commission-free trading is a very good candidate for that if you want to emphasize disgusting-wise. Commission-free trading is not free. Question: Do you think it’s best to invest in the common stocks of businesses early or while they are more nascent and the industry is smaller, or wait until they are the clear winner of a more mature industry? Charlie Munger: I think Warren and I are better at buying mature industries than we are at backing startups like Sequoia. The best venture capital operation probably in the whole world is Sequoia’s and they are very good at this early stage investing. I would hate to compete with Sequoia in their field. I think they’d run rings around me. So, I think for some folks, early-stage investing is best, and for other folks, what I’ve done in my life is best. Question: Last year, almost every ecommerce, internet, and internet adjacent stock was up 100 plus percent. You’ve said recently that Sequoia is the greatest investment firm ever. Do you think that digital economy has reached a tipping point such that this time is different and that conventional valuation measures for these types of companies are dead, or does this environment remind you of 1999? How do you reconcile the idea of paying 50 or 60 times revenue for a growing but unprofitable business with the more traditional value investing concept of a margin of safety? Charlie Munger: Well, generally speaking, I don’t try and compete with Sequoia. You can argue that I got close to Sequoia when with Li Lu we bought into BYD. That was not a startup, but it was so small and thinly traded that we were buying into a venture capital type investment but in the public market.

除了那一例外,我对红杉的业务一直敬而远之,因为他们在这方面比我强太多了,而且我也不懂他们那套做法。

提问:在各种护城河和竞争优势中,您认为未来哪几种最重要,以及您能想象哪些竞争优势的组合会创造出新型护城河?

查理·芒格:这个问题对我来说太宽泛了。我只能说一点:很多看似无法逾越的护城河,都被人找到了突破的办法。想想过去那些实际上相当于美国政府一部分的垄断性报纸,它们现在几乎全在垂死挣扎——几乎没有一家例外。很多旧护城河正在消失,当然,人们也在不断创造新的护城河。这就是资本主义的本质,就像生物学里的进化一样。

新物种不断诞生,旧物种逐渐消亡。在这种领域里摸爬滚打当然不容易,可生活本来就没有规定头脑方面就一定要轻松,它肯定会很难。

提问:我很喜欢您接受加州理工学院采访的那次谈话,希望您能进一步阐述关于伟大投资者和伟大棋手的观点。他们之间有什么相似和不同之处?您看过 Netflix 上的电视剧《女王的棋局》吗?

查理·芒格:我看过一两集《女王的棋局》。

我觉得国际象棋有趣的地方在于,某种程度上,除非你天生具备某种天赋,否则是学不来的。就算你有天赋,要是你不在很小的时候就开始下棋并积累大量经验,也不可能下得好。所以,这是一个非常有挑战性的竞技领域。

有人认为任何聪明勤奋的人都能成为伟大的投资者。我觉得任何聪明的人都能成为一个相当不错的投资者,避开某些明显的陷阱。但我不认为每个人都能成为伟大的投资者或伟大的棋手。

我认识一个人,亨利·辛格尔顿,他不是国际象棋冠军。但他可以蒙眼下棋,水平接近大师级。可亨利是个天才,没多少人能做到这一点。如果你做不到,就别想赢得世界级国际象棋冠军赛,也别想在商业上达到亨利·辛格尔顿那样的成就。

我认为这些事情有些非常难,而且大体上说,雇佣一大批人来管理投资并做出判断是个错误。你不如像李录的合伙企业那样,把决策权集中到一个人身上,然后选对人。

With that one exception, I’ve stayed out of Sequoia’s business because they’re so much better at it than I would be and I don’t know how to do it the way they do it. Question: Of the various types of moats and competitive advantages, which types do you think will be most important in the years ahead, and what combinations of competitive advantages can you imagine will create any new types of moats? Charlie Munger: That’s too hard in general a question for me. The one thing I will say is that a lot of the moats that looked impassable, people found a way to displace. Think of all the monopoly newspapers that used to be, in effect, part of the government of the United States. And they’re all dying—every damn one of them almost. A lot of the old moats are going away, and, of course, people are creating new moats all the time. That’s the nature of capitalism. It’s like evolution in biology. New species are created and old species are dying. Of course, it’s hard to negotiate in such a field. But there’s no rule that life has to be easy on the mental side. Of course, it’s going to be difficult. Question: I enjoyed your Caltech interview and wanted you to elaborate and provide more insights on your point of great investors and great chess players. How are they similar or different? Have you seen the television show Queen’s Gambit on Netflix? Charlie Munger: I have seen an episode or two of the Queen’s Gambit. What I think is interesting about chess is, to some extent, you can’t learn it unless you have a certain natural gift. And even if you have a natural gift, you can’t be good at it unless you start playing at a very young age and get huge experience. So, it’s a very interesting competitive field. I think people have the theory that any intelligent hardworking person can get to be a great investor. I think any intelligent person can get to be pretty good as an investor and avoid certain obvious traps. But I don’t think everybody can be a great investor or a great chess player. I knew a man once, Henry Singleton, who was not a chess champion. But he could play chess blindfolded at just below the Grandmaster level. But Henry was a genius. And there aren’t many people that can do that. And if you can’t do that, you’re not gonna win the great chess championships of the world and you’re not gonna do as well in business as Henry Singleton did. I think some of these things are very difficult and I think, by and large, it’s a mistake to hire investment management—to hire armies of people to make conclusions. You’re better off concentrating your decision power on one person the way the Li Lu partnership does and then choose the right person.

我不认为普通人能轻松成为杰出的投资者。

提问:您发现了电气化的机遇并投资了比亚迪。您如何看待氢能在交通领域的机遇?与电力机遇相比,具体来说在卡车与乘用车的对比上,氢能如何?未来我们的加油站或卡车服务站会变少吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我希望卡车服务站别变少,因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦深度涉足卡车服务站业务。但当然,我认为未来各类交通运输的自动化程度会越来越高。

关于氢能,我没有什么深刻的见解。但我确实认为,要建立一整套氢能销售体系非常困难。另一方面,洛杉矶的公交车全都使用天然气。这为洛杉矶省了一大笔钱,因为天然气比汽油便宜得多。我亲眼目睹了整个公交系统从汽油或柴油转向天然气,所以这显然并非不可能,但你得为此建立一整套全新的供应体系。

我甚至不知道处理氢能比处理同样是危险物质的汽油,到底困难多少——或者危险多少。

这已经触及我能力圈的极限了。我没法再帮到你。

提问:(《每日新闻》的)管理层会如何处理一笔突如其来的利润?在当前低利率、低通胀的环境下,他们会如何看待现有的机会?

查理·芒格:嗯,在当前这种股票价格如此之高、某些类型的房地产部分也严重膨胀的环境下,处理积累的资金并不容易。所以这非常困难。我只能说,我们会尽力而为。

当情况变得困难时,我认为没有任何自动解决困难的捷径。我觉得当困难来临时,我该摊上就摊上。

提问:在您看来,管理层是否有道德责任让公司股价尽可能接近公允价值?

查理·芒格:我不认为这能成为一种道德责任。因为如果那样的话,我就是个道德上的麻风病患者。《每日新闻》的股价远高于我如果买入新股时愿意支付的价格。所以,不,我不认为管理层有责任确保股价在什么位置。

我认为管理层应该始终实事求是,而不是成为自家股票的大推销员。

I don’t think it’s easy for ordinary people to become great investors. Question: You identified the opportunity in electrification and invested in BYD. How do you think about the hydrogen opportunity for transportation and how does it compare to the electric opportunity, specifically thinking about trucks versus cars. Will we have fewer gas stations or truck stops in the future? Charlie Munger: Well, I hope we don’t have fewer truck stocks because Berkshire Hathaway is deeply involved in truck stops. But, of course, I think there will be more automation in transportation of all kinds in the future. I don’t think I’ve got any great insight about hydrogen. But I do think having a whole system to sell hydrogen is difficult. On the other hand, the buses in Los Angeles work on natural gas. All the buses. And it has saved Los Angeles a fortune because gas is so much cheaper than gasoline. I’ve seen the whole bus system shift from gasoline or diesel to gas and so it obviously isn’t impossible, but you’d have to create a whole new system of supply for it. I don’t even know how much more difficult—or how much more dangerous—it would be to deal with hydrogen than it is to deal with gasoline which is also a dangerous substance. You’ve reached the limit of my circle of competence. I can’t help you. Question: What would management [of Daily Journal] do with a sudden windfall of profits? How would they think about current opportunities with low rates and low inflation? Charlie Munger: Well, it’s not easy to handle accumulated money in the current environment when these stocks are so high and partials of real estate of certain kinds are also very inflated. So it’s very difficult. And all I can say is that we’ll do the best we can. When it gets difficult, I don’t think there’s any automatic fix for difficulty. I think when difficulty comes, I expect to have my share. Question: Does management, in your opinion, have a moral responsibility to have their shares trade as close to fair value as possible? Charlie Munger: I don’t think you can make that a moral responsibility. Because if you do that, I’m a moral leper. The daily journal stock sells way above the price I would pay if I was buying new stock. So, no I don’t think it’s the responsibility of management to assure where the stock sells. I think management should tell it like it is at all times and not be a big promoter of its own stock.

提问:1999 年,《每日 journal》收购 Sustain Technologies 那年,传统业务有 355 名全职员工和 61 名兼职员工。到了 2010 年,减少到 165 名全职员工和 15 名兼职员工。今年的年报显示,传统业务还有 97 名全职员工。随着员工人数的减少,报纸质量受损了吗?或者说,数字革命是否大大提升了这些业务的效率?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,规模在缩小。它们不得不如此,因为传统报业正在萎缩。格里是个头脑清醒的人,你看,他独自承担了那项极为不快的适度的缩减工作,一点也没来烦我或里克。这恰恰证明了我们当初让他负责是多么明智。

报纸质量下降了吗?嗯,我不认为刊登公告广告的质量下降了。但是,当员工减少时,我很难相信编辑质量能大幅提升。我猜我们在编辑质量上确实有所损失。格里,对此你有什么看法?

杰拉德·萨尔茨曼:这里涉及许多因素。你提到了技术——这一点非常非常重要。我们的许多系统都在云端。除了法律广告系统,那是我们必须自建的,因为没有其他公司的业务量能达到我们这样。我们的编辑系统和广告系统都在云端。会计系统也在云端。

报业衰落带来的冲击影响显著。分类广告大幅下滑。例如,在展示广告方面,我们现在与一家与我们合作了 25 年的非常友好的公司合作,他们正在帮助我们销售广告。另外,幸运的是,在疫情之前,我们就退出了会议类活动,因此没有受到无人参加线下会议的那些问题的冲击。

看看加州房地产和租金的现状,我们减少了《期刊科技》和《每日 journal》的办公室数量。在旧金山地区,面对互联网公司对编辑产品的人才争夺,招聘记者极其困难。

所有这些因素都共同作用;如果再往前追溯,我们停办了《加州律师》杂志,还曾拥有一份西雅图和一份丹佛的报纸。大约在同一时间,我们在凤凰城买下了一份报纸,结果非常成功。要打入法律广告系统很难,这个系统支撑着不仅仅在加州、还有其它地方的许多报纸。

查理·芒格:经营一项不断萎缩的业务非常困难。格里做得极其出色。这是完全必要的。

Question: In 1999, the year the Daily Journal bought Sustain Technologies, the traditional business employed 355 full-time employees and 61 part-time employees. In 2010, that was down to 165 full-time employees and 15 part-time employees. This year’s annual report suggests that the traditional business has 97 full-time employees. Has the quality of the publication suffered as the employment levels have decreased? Or, has the digital revolution caused enormous productivity improvements in those businesses? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, the places downsized. They had to because the traditional business newspaper business is shrinking. Gerry, being a sound thinker, you know, did the very unpleasant work of shrinking it appropriately without bothering me or Rick. It showsed how wise we were to put him there in the first place. Has the quality gone down? Well, I don’t think the quality of publishing public notice advertising has gone down. But, I hardly think the editorial quality could go way up when employees were going down. My guess is we have suffered some editorial quality. Gerry, you have a comment on that? Gerald Salzman: There are a number of factors that come into play here. And you mentioned technology—that’s very, very important. Many of our systems are in the cloud. All except for the legal advertising system which we had to build because nobody else has the volume that we have. Our editorial system and our advertising system are all in the cloud. Accounting is also in the cloud. The disruption from the decline in newspapers has had a significant impact. Classified advertising is down significantly. In display advertising, for example, we now utilize a very friendly company that worked with us for 25 years and now they are helping us sell advertising. Also, fortunately before the pandemic, we got out of the conference-type events and we were not subjected to the problems of no conferences nobody to attend. When you look at what’s happened in California [in terms of] the price of real estate and rentals, we’ve reduced the number of offices we have both for Journal Technology and for the Daily Journal. It’s very difficult to hire reporters in the San Francisco area with all the demands coming from the internet companies wanting to have an editorial product. All those factors come into play and if you go back a little further, we eliminated California Lawyer magazine and we had one time a newspaper in Seattle and one in Denver. At about the same time, we bought a newspaper in Phoenix and that worked out extremely well. It’s difficult to break into the legal advertising system which supports so many newspapers, not only in California but elsewhere. Charlie Munger: It’s very hard to have a shrinking business. Gerry has done magnificently well. It was totally required.

提问者:你认为市场正在经历一场类似 1999 年的长期价值低潮,还是技术已经永久改变了公司应该如何估值?

查理·芒格:我不知道这种变化会持续多久,但它确实带来了改变。当然,在一个你无法预测很多事情、极其复杂的系统中,很难知道未来会发生什么。通常人们会做的是持有财务储备金,这样当麻烦来临时他们就有一些选择,并且像格里那样调整,要么裁员要么扩招。

《每日邮报》有意思的一点是,我们是在止赎热潮中赚了那么多钱。所以我们就像在瘟疫年突然发财的殡仪馆老板。这是一种有趣的赚钱方式。之所以会这样,是因为格里和我买下了全州各地这些小报,纯粹是作为一种预防措施,确保我们能在全州任何地方发布公共通知广告。

结果这成了一个绝妙的主意,也是我们赚到这么多钱的原因之一。所以,股东们很幸运有格里这样的人在这里,他能学习自己不懂的东西,并把它搞定。

提问者:你一生中花了很多时间把你的智慧贡献给学校和医院。你会建议这些机构如何在未来几十年管理它们的捐赠基金?

查理·芒格:我长期参与管理的一家慈善机构,其董事会里充斥着各种财富管理领域的顶级金融家。而这家机构的捐赠账户里只有两项资产:一项是李录的中国基金(有限合伙)的很大份额,另一项是先锋集团指数基金。通过持有这两个头寸,我们的成本比任何人都低,赚的钱也比几乎任何人都多。所以你现在知道我在慈善机构做些什么了。

顺便说一句,这在美国并不是常态。财富管理行业本身正面临危机。他们真的需要世界保持原样。但这对其客户来说未必是正确的。

提问者:据估计,盖茨基金会已经拯救了超过 1 亿人的生命。巴菲特对基金会的捐款显然帮助拯救了数百万人。伯克希尔的经理们是否意识到,通过他们在伯克希尔创造商业成功的努力,他们也参与了拯救数百万生命的事业?

查理·芒格:我确信有些人知道,但总的来说,这不是沃伦出名的原因。他完全不在意自己的慈善捐款没有得到认可。

Question: Do you believe the market is going through a long-term value slump similar to 1999, or do you believe technology has caused a permanent change in how companies should be valued? Charlie Munger: I don’t know how permanent it’s going to be but it certainly caused a change. Of course, it’s hard to know what the future holds when in a complex system where you can’t predict a lot of things. Generally, what people do is they have financial reserves so they have some options if trouble comes, and they adapt the way Gerry has to require downsizings or require upsizings. One of the interesting things about the Daily Journal is that we made all that money in the foreclosure boom. So we were like an undertaker who suddenly got prosperous in a plague year. It’s a funny way to make money. That happened because Gerry and I bought these little newspapers all over the state just as a precaution to make sure we could serve public notice advertising wherever it arose in the state. That turned out to be a wonderful idea and that’s one of the reasons we made all this money. So, the shareholders have been lucky to have somebody like Gerry here who could learn what he didn’t know and fix it. Question: You’ve spent much of your life contributing your wisdom to schools and hospitals. How would you advise these institutions to manage their endowments over the coming decades? Charlie Munger: Well, the one charitable institution where I have had some influence for a very long time has a whole bunch of hotshot financiers in every branch of wealth management there is on the board. And that institution has two assets in its endowment account. One is a big interest in Li Lu’s China fund, which is a limited partnership, and the other is a Vanguard index fund. As a result of holding those two positions, we have a lower cost than anybody else and we make more money than practically everybody else. So you now know what I do in charitable institutions. By the way, that’s not the normal outcome in America. The wealth management industry has a crisis on its hands. They really need the world to stay the way it is. And that isn’t necessarily right for its customers. Question: It is estimated that the Gates Foundation has saved well over 100 million lives. Buffett’s donations to the foundation have obviously helped to save many millions. Are Berkshire’s managers aware that through their efforts to create business success at Berkshire that they have been involved in saving millions of lives? Charlie Munger: I’m sure some are, but, by and large, that’s not what Warren is known for. He doesn’t mind at all not getting credit for his charitable donations.

提问:石油和天然气行业会成为新的报纸行业吗?

查理·芒格:我不这么认为。我认为石油和天然气行业还会存在非常非常长的时间。事实上,如果我们停止在交通领域使用大量碳氢化合物,它还会存在非常非常长的时间。

碳氢化合物同样需要作为化工原料。我不认为碳氢化合物会消失。我不是说石油和天然气会成为一个好生意,但我不认为它会消失。我不认为它和报纸行业一样。

提问:你是否认为全球变暖对人类构成生存威胁?如果是,你认为社会应该如何应对,尤其是贫困国家需要更多廉价能源来减少贫困?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,当贫困国家需要燃烧煤炭才能生存等等的时候,解决全球变暖问题非常困难。所以,这是一个严重的问题。另一方面,我们还有相当长的时间来处理。一个富裕的文明如果确实必须这么做,是承担得起这个代价的。

如果海平面上升 60 英尺,这可能在接下来大约 100 年左右发生,我们就得建造巨大的海堤来阻挡海水。佛罗里达州会有一个非常严重的问题。

另一方面,这个问题是可以应对的。比尔·盖茨最近写了一本关于这个主题的书,他在书中得出一个结论:代价会很高,但可以应对。他的结论是,人类应该迎难而上,去做这件事。我有点欣赏比尔处理这些非常困难的问题的方式。我倾向于避开那些我不擅长的问题,而很多不同的问题我都不擅长。

提问:你目前在读什么书?有什么可以推荐的吗?

查理·芒格:我想这个问题我跳过吧。

提问:本杰明·富兰克林说过:如果可以让我选择,我不会反对从头再活一次同样的人生,只要求像作者再版一样,有机会修正初版的错误。如果你今天有机会重新开始,你在人生和投资上会做出哪些不同的选择?

查理·芒格:本杰明·富兰克林是曾经活过的最有智慧的人之一。然而他在一生中也犯过很多错误。当然,如果他有机会重来一次,他会避免那些错误。我们都会这么说。

Question: Is the oil and gas industry the new newspapers? Charlie Munger: I don’t think so. I think the oil and gas industry will be here for a long, long time. As a matter of fact, it will be here for a long, long time if we stop using many hydrocarbons in transportation. The hydrocarbons are also needed as chemical feedstocks. I don’t think that hydrocarbons are going. I’m not saying that oil and gas is going to be a wonderful business but I don’t think it’s going away. I don’t think it’s like the newspaper business. Question: Do you believe global warming is an existential threat to humankind? If so, how do you think society should address it, especially because poor countries require much more cheap energy to reduce poverty? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, it’s very hard to fix the global warming problem when the poorer countries need to burn coal to stay alive and so on. So, it’s a serious problem. On the other hand, we have a fair amount of time to do it. A rich civilization can afford to do it if we absolutely have to. If the seas were to rise 60 feet, which could happen in another 100 years or so, we’d have to build enormous barriers to sea entry. Florida would have a really serious problem. On the other hand, it could be handled. Bill Gates has written a book on this subject recently in which he concludes that it would be expensive but it could be handled. And his conclusion is that mankind should just step up to it and do it. I kind of admire the way Bill takes on these very hard problems. I tend to avoid the ones which I’m not good at and I’m not good at a lot of different problems. Question: What books are you currently reading and what can you reccomend? Charlie Munger: I think I’ll skip that one. Question: Ben Franklin said: Were it offered to my choice, I should have no objection to a repetition of the same life from its beginning, only asking the advantages authors have in a second edition, to correct some faults of the first. If you were offered a fresh start today, what would you do differently in life and in investing? Charlie Munger: Ben Franklin was one of the wisest men who ever lived. And yet he made a lot of mistakes in the course of living his life. Of course, if he had a chance to do it over again, he would avoid those mistakes. We would all say that.

他谈论这件事的态度非常和蔼。不过当然,如果我们有机会重来一次,我们会做得更好。但有机会重来一次的人数为零。所以这完全是个理论性的讨论。

我向来喜欢一句德语谚语:人总是老得太快,聪明得太晚。不管你是本杰明·富兰克林还是无名小卒,这句话都适用。

我们都面临这个问题。我们对自己也都相当宽容,这大概是一件好事。

我不会怎么改变我的生活。我认为大多数在生活中取得还算过得去成就的人,他们感到的幸福程度大致是命中注定的。他们不会因为更富有就幸福很多,也不会因为贫穷就少幸福很多。我觉得大多数人天生就有一个“幸福设定点”。这个设定点对他们幸福程度的影响,远大于人生际遇本身。

提问:您曾在《穷查理宝典》中对择偶给出的建议非常简洁。您说过,最好的办法就是自己配得上一个好配偶,因为好配偶的定义就是不发疯。这确实有道理。但您能否说得更具体些?您过去在采访里用过李光耀的例子,说他判断力很好,选择了聪明才智而非某些外在特质。您能根据个人观察或间接阅读,再多举几个好或坏的例子吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我举不出比李光耀更好的例子了。他早期求学时是全校第二名。他就那么聪明。而有一个比他年长一岁的女生,是全校第一名。于是他娶了她。当然,他的儿子也是个聪明人,现在是新加坡总理。

在择偶方面有一点智慧是非常可取的。你很难找到比嫁给谁更影响人生幸福的决定了。

提问:鉴于您向物理学领域的大量捐赠,您最喜欢将物理应用于社会问题以及投资的方式是什么?

查理·芒格:我不认为我在解决投资问题时用了多少物理学,但它偶尔会帮到我。

有时,某个该死的傻瓜会提出一些违反物理定律的建议,一旦我意识到这个可怜的家伙根本不懂物理,我就立刻关上我的大脑。

提问:在投资过程中,分析企业文化有多重要?

查理·芒格:相当重要——这是像 Costco 这样的公司成功的一部分。一家小公司能在几十年前创立并发展到如此庞大的规模,这非常了不起。

He was very amiable the way he talked about it. But, of course, if we got a chance to do it again, we would do it better. The number of people who ever got a chance to do it again is zero. So it’s a very theoretical discussion. There’s an old German proverb I’ve always liked. It says that man is too soon old and too late smart. That’s true whether you’re Benjamin Franklin or Joe klutz. We all live with that problem. We’re all pretty forgiving of ourselves too which is probably a good thing. I wouldn’t change my life all that well. I think most people who are assuming tolerable success in life are about as happy as they were ordained to be. They wouldn’t be a lot happier if they were richer or a lot less happy if they’d been poor. I think most people are born with a happystat. That happystat has more to do with their happiness and their outcomes in life. Question: Your advice given on choosing a good spouse in Poor Charlie’s Almanac is terse. You have said that the single best way is to deserve a good spouse because a good spouse is by definition not nuts. That is true and makes sense. However, could you be more specific? You used examples of Lee Kuan Yew’s good judgment in choosing someone with brains over certain physical attributes in your past interview. Could you give more examples both good and bad ones from your personal observations or through vicarious readings? Charlie Munger: Well, I can’t top Lee Kuan Yew’s example. In his early education, he was the second-ranked student in the school. He was that smart. And there was one woman who was a year older than he was who was the first-ranked student in the school. So he married her. Of course, his son, who is a bright man, is now Prime Minister of Singapore. A little wisdom in spouse selection is very desirable. You can hardly think of a decision that matters more to human felicity than who you marry. Question: Given all of your donations to physics, what is your favorite way of applying physics to society’s problems and also to investing? Charlie Munger: I don’t think I use much physics in solving my investment problems but it occasionally helps me. Occasionally, some damned fool will suggest something that violates the laws of physics and I always turn off my mind the minute I realize the poor bastard doesn’t know any physics. Question: How important is the analysis of company culture in the investment process? Charlie Munger: It’s quite important—part of the success of a company like Costco. It’s been amazing that one little company starting up not that many decades ago could become as big as

好市多(Costco)之所以能发展得那么快,部分原因在于文化。他们建立了一种对成本、品质、效率和诚信近乎狂热的文化——所有好的方面都齐备了,当然,这一切都行之有效。文化非常重要。

Costco did as fast as Costco did. Part of the reason for that was cultural. They have created a strong culture of fanaticism about cost, quality, efficiency, and honor. All the good things. And, of course, it’s all worked. Culture is very important. Question: You often advocate for learning from other people’s big calamities and stupidities. What would be a mistake at the Daily Journal which we can all learn from? Charlie Munger: Gerry, what’s the biggest mistake we’ve made? Gerald Salzman: Well, we don’t think about mistakes. We take the situation as it is and try to solve it. Charlie Munger: I can’t think of a… We paid high prices for some little companies in the course of trying to enter the court software business. But I don’t think that’s going to end up with a mistake. God knows it was difficult but I don’t think it’s a mistake. I don’t think we have made a lot of horrible mistakes. Look around all this real estate. We bought all these buildings cheaply. They’re in a place that’s gotten more valuable. I don’t think it was a mistake to buy the Daily Journal when we did, paying the price we did. We paid two and a half million for it. We got a dividend of two and a half million shortly thereafter. Everything you see is profit. I think we’ve coped pretty well so far. Question: If you had a chance to make an addition or revision to Poor Charlie’s Almanac, what would that be? Charlie Munger: I don’t have any wonderful new thoughts. To the extent that my thoughts have helped my life, I think I’ve pretty well run the course. I don’t think I’m likely to have any new thoughts that are going to work miracles either. But, I find that the old ways of doing things still work. I’ve been engaged in recent years in trying to create a better type of student dormitory. I find that by working at that, I can actually make some improvements even though I’m old. So, I’m kind of pleased that I’m still functioning at all. I’m not trying to move mountains. Question: Do you believe any psychological personality tests, such as the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, to be of any good in choosing a compatible partner, given that choosing a spouse is probably the most important decision one can make in life. Could you please elaborate on the subject and could you consider giving a talk on this particular subject? The most important decision in life to benefit those who are single, perhaps including some of your grandchildren and great-grandchildren.

提问:你经常提倡从别人的重大灾难和愚蠢中学习。在《每日新闻》,有什么错误是我们可以共同吸取教训的?

查理·芒格:杰瑞,我们犯过最大的错误是什么?

杰拉德·萨尔兹曼:嗯,我们不琢磨错误。我们接受现状,然后试着解决它。

查理·芒格:我想不出有什么……我们在尝试进入法院软件业务的过程中,为一些小公司支付了高价。但我不觉得那最终会成为一个错误。天知道这事有多难,但我不认为这是个错误。

我不觉得我们犯过很多可怕的错误。看看这些房地产。我们买的这些楼都很便宜。它们所处的地段价值越来越高。

我不认为当初买下《每日新闻》是个错误,支付的价格也合理。我们花了 250 万美元。之后不久,我们就拿到了 250 万美元的股息。你现在看到的一切都是利润。

我觉得到目前为止,我们应付得还不错。

Charlie Munger: Well, you know, I had a failed marriage, so I don’t think I’m in the perfect position to advise the young about marriage. No, I don’t think I have anything to contribute. Question: What have you done to live such a long life? Could you share the secret to living a long, healthy, and happy life? Charlie Munger: I think I’m alive because of a lucky genetic accident. I don’t think I can teach you how to retroactively get a new accident yourself. Gerry’s lived a long time too and I think we both have been lucky. No, I don’t have any secrets. I think I would have lived a long time if I had lived a different life. A happy life is very simple. The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. That’s one you can easily arrange. If you have unrealistic expectations, you’re going to be miserable all your life. I was good at having low expectations and that helped me. Also, when you get reverses, if you just suck it in cope, that helps if you don’t just fretfully stew yourself into a lot of misery. There are certain behavioral rules. Rose Blumpkin had quite an effect on the Berkshire culture. She created a business with like 500 depression dollars that became a huge business. You know what her mottoes were? Always tell the truth and never lie to anybody about anything. Those are pretty good rules and they’re pretty simple. A lot of the good rules of life are like that. They’re just very simple. Do it right the first time. That’s a really good rule. Question: It’s been a year since the coronavirus pandemic came to the U.S. What have you all learned about running a business in the past year? Has there been anything that has surprised you, and what would be your best advice to someone starting a business now? Charlie Munger: I don’t think I have a lot of wonderful advice about starting a business but what you’ve learned in the pandemic is that we can do with a lot less travel and a lot more Zooming. When the pandemic is over, I don’t think we’re going back to just the way things were. I think we’re into a lot less travel and a lot more Zooming. I think the world is gonna be quite different. A lot of the people who are doing this remote work—a lot are going to work three days a week in the office and two days a week at home. A lot of things are going to change. I expect that and I welcome it.

提问:如果有机会为《穷查理宝典》添加或修订内容,你会加什么?

查理·芒格:我没有任何精彩的新想法。就那些让我生活受益的想法而言,我觉得差不多已经用尽了。我不认为自己还能想出什么能创造奇迹的新点子。但我发现,老一套的办法仍然管用。

这些年我一直在尝试设计一种更好的学生宿舍。我发现,虽然我老了,但只要用心去做,确实能做出一些改进。所以,我对自己还能有所作为感到挺欣慰的。我没打算做什么移山倒海的大事。

提问:鉴于选择配偶可能是人生中最重要的决定,你是否认为像迈尔斯-布里格斯类型指标(Myers-Briggs Type Indicator)这类心理人格测试,对选择合拍伴侣有好处?能否详细谈谈这个话题,并考虑就此发表一次演讲?这个人生中最重要的决定,或许能惠及包括你的一些孙辈和曾孙辈在内的单身人士。

查理·芒格:呃,你知道,我有过一次失败的婚姻,所以我不认为自己适合给年轻人提供婚姻建议。不,我想我没什么可贡献的。

提问:你是怎么活得这么久的?能分享长寿、健康、快乐人生的秘诀吗?

查理·芒格:我觉得自己活着是因为幸运的基因突变。我不认为我能教你怎么反过来自己制造一个突变。杰瑞也活了很久,我觉得我俩都挺幸运的。不,我没什么秘诀。我觉得就算我过的是另一种人生,大概也能活这么久。

快乐的人生很简单。

快乐人生的第一条规则是降低预期。这一点你很容易就能做到。如果你有不切实际的期望,你一辈子都会痛苦。我擅长降低期望,这帮了我大忙。

另外,当你遇到挫折时,如果能咬牙挺过去而不是自怨自艾、陷入痛苦,那也会有帮助。

有一些行为准则相当有效。罗丝·布拉姆金对伯克希尔的文化影响很大。她用大约 500 美元(大萧条时期的美元)创立了一家企业,后来发展成了巨无霸。你知道她的座右铭是什么吗?永远说实话,对任何人、任何事都不撒谎。

这些都是相当好的准则,也相当简单。

生活中很多好准则都是这样。它们就是很简单。第一次就把事情做对。这条准则真的很棒。

提问:新冠疫情进入美国已经一年了。过去一年里,你们在经营企业方面学到了什么?有什么让你们感到意外的事情吗?对现在创业的人,你们最好的建议是什么?

查理·芒格:我觉得自己没什么了不起的创业建议,但你在疫情中学到的是,我们可以大大减少差旅,更多地使用 Zoom(视频会议)。

疫情结束后,我不认为我们会回到过去的老样子。我觉得我们会减少差旅,更多地使用 Zoom。我认为世界会变得相当不同。很多人在远程办公——很多人将来会一周工作三天在办公室、两天在家。很多事情都会改变。我预料到这一点,并且欢迎这种变化。

提问:能对全球正在观看的观众分享一些临别寄语吗?

查理·芒格:我们俩都真的很老了。我认为我俩做的都是同一件事:咬牙挺住,从容应对。我们没有别的秘诀了,对吧,杰瑞?

杰拉德·萨尔兹曼:没有。你必须关心员工的生计。这一点非常非常重要。举个例子,我们这里大概已经有 30 到 40 位员工去世了。我们期望很多员工能始终待在客户法院的办公室,因为我们与客户密切合作,确保他们得到所需。就像查理说的,我们之前出差很多。这已经大大缩减了。而且很多办公室我们去不了,因为都关门了。

至于我们的一些技术,比如电子提交(eFiling),法院也关门了。我们非常兴奋地期待能让法院恢复运作,我们知道法院也想这么干,将来也会做到。

所以,你必须更贴近员工的需求、愿望,比如照看孩子之类过去被视为理所当然的事情。这些都不复存在了。每个人的情况都不一样,没有那种放之四海皆准的明显做法。而且,我们必须像一个非正式委员会那样运作,把我们的员工和客户凝聚在一起,共同商讨他们已经知道的东西,以及我们如何帮助他们做得更好、更高效。

所以,作为一家小公司,人员方面已经发生了相当大的变化。我们受洛杉矶县和其他县的指导方针约束。我们在加州所有主要城市以及犹他州洛根市都设有办公室。我们得服从这些县的命令和指示,这在过去根本不会造成什么影响。

查理·芒格:有一件事我们非常热衷,那就是服务那些信任我们的客户。我们确实很有兴趣在澳大利亚、加州以及其他所有人们信任我们的地方把工作做好。

你很难再想到比这更重要的事情了:对信任你的人而言,成为一个可靠的人。

我们会拼命工作,努力把事情做好。《每日新闻》的股东们,无论结果如何,都必须接受我们把客户放在首位——这种做法比常见的要用心得多。

Question: Can you share some parting thoughts with the viewers who are watching all around the world? Charlie Munger: We’re really old both of us. And I think both of us have done the same thing; we just suck it in and cope. We don’t have any other secrets, do we Jerry? Gerald Salzman: None. You have to be concerned about employees’ lives. That’s very, very important. And, for example, here, we must have 30 or 40 deaths. We expect many of our employees to always be at client court offices because we work with them very closely to make sure they get what they need. We do, as Charlie indicates, have a lot of travel. That’s been greatly curtailed. And we can’t go to many offices because they’re closed. As for some of our technology, like eFiling for example, the courts are closed. We are very excited to look forward to enabling the courts to function as we know that they want to and will in the future. So, you have to be a little closer to the employees’ needs, desires, babysitting, and all those activities that were kind of taken for granted in the past. It doesn’t happen anymore. Everybody’s got a different situation. Nothing is particularly obvious for everybody to do the same thing. And, we have to function as an informal committee in that we have to bring our employees and our clients together to work out what they already know and how we can help them do a better job—a more efficient job. So, the people part has changed quite considerably being a small company. We’re beholden to the guidelines of the county of Los Angeles and other counties. We have offices in all the major cities in California and also in Logan, Utah. We are subject to the orders and directions of those counties which, before, really didn’t impact anything. Charlie Munger: There’s one thing that we’re quite passionate about and that is serving the customers who have trusted us. And, we are really interested in doing a good job in Australia, in California, and all the other places where people have trusted us. You can hardly think of anything more important in life than being reliable for the people who trust you. We’re going to bust our ass to try and do a good job. The Daily Journal shareholders will have to take whatever outcome comes from caring more about our customers than is at all common.

问:您在今年的致股东信中提到,股价上涨是由投机狂潮和指数基金的被动买入推动的。我想这同样适用于整个市场。这种市场行为对心理有什么影响?投资者该如何更好地应对周期性的狂热?

查理·芒格:嗯,在市场经济中,这种事情确实会发生。你会看到疯狂的繁荣。还记得互联网泡沫吗?当时硅谷的每座小楼都炒到了天价,可几个月后,大约三分之一的楼就空了。资本主义里就是有这种时期。我活了这么久,我的政策一直是把它们写下来就行了。我觉得这也是股东们该做的。

事实上,很多股东实际做的是在狂热中一窝蜂地买入股票——经常还加杠杆——因为他们看到股价在涨。当然,这是一种非常危险的投资方式。我认为股东应该更理智,不要只是因为股价在上涨、自己又喜欢赌博,就一窝蜂地冲进去买股票。

吉卜林有首诗叫《女人》,结尾大致是说,你应该从他那儿了解女人,而不是自己亲身去试,因为,他说,我知道你肯定不会听我的劝。

问:请问芒格先生对最近社交媒体引发的 GameStop 轧空事件以及对未来做空的潜在影响有什么看法?还有一位股东提问:亲爱的芒格先生,请分享您对最近 r/WallStreetBets 引发的 GameStop 轧空事件的看法。这里面似乎包含了很多您提到的人类误判的标准成因。

查理·芒格:确实包含,当你有一大群人利用流动性好的股票市场来赌博,就像他们沉迷于赌资源勘探一样,这种事情就会发生。

我们目前在股市上看到的就是这样一种狂热,它是由那些从这群新赌徒身上赚取佣金和其他收入的人所助长的。

当然,当事情变得极端时,就会出现像轧空那样的情况。公众一般没注意到,但清算所是要为所有这些交易做结算的。当事情变得像你提到的那个事件一样疯狂时,清算所就可能面临倒闭的风险。所以这非常危险。鼓励一种文化,让那些有着赛马场赌徒心态的人去大量赌博股票,这真的很愚蠢。当然,这也会像它已经做的那样,制造麻烦。

关于这件事,我有一个很简单的想法。我认为你应该努力靠把对别人有益的东西卖给他们来赚钱。如果你卖的是赌博服务,并且从中抽成获利,就像许多专门引诱业余人士入场的新经纪商那样,我认为这是一种肮脏的赚钱方式。我觉得我们允许这种事情发生是疯了。

问:您希望十年后的《每日邮报》公司是什么样子?

查理·芒格:嗯,我当然希望他们在软件业务上取得巨大成功,为现代世界实现所有法院系统的自动化。我认为这有可能发生,但当然,这不是板上钉钉的事。我也希望报纸能存活下来。那也不是板上钉钉的事。

问:高度可配置的 JTI 产品可能有助于 e-suites 在法院工作人员和公众熟悉新软件后,深入整合到新的司法管辖区。目前,可确认的合同收入主要来自实施和许可费。产品上线后,预计辅助收入的主要来源是什么?像 eFile-it、ePay-it、云托管服务等产品会变得有多重要?

查理·芒格:嗯,我们也不太清楚这一切会走向何方。我们只知道一件事,那就是全世界的法院系统都将被带入现代时代。就像格里吃完早饭后刚对我说的,你不会想投资法院旁边的停车场,因为大量的法庭程序将转移到互联网上。这是一件非常可取的事情。你去像爱沙尼亚这样的小国看看,整个国家都在互联网上,这是一个非常好的主意。

所以,我认为你可以相信,我们正在做的事情将会是一个发展迅速的领域。这是好消息。坏消息是,目前还不清楚谁能赢得所有的业务,也不知道能赚多少钱。一般来说,人们认为我们是一家像微软那样的普通软件公司。但实际上,我们是一家比微软更难做的软件类型。当你通过 RFP 流程来响应软件需求时,这是一个非常困难、要求严格的业务,它不如微软的业务那么赚钱,确定性也低。

但我们仍然热爱它。它是在提供一项巨大的公共服务。

问:有几个关于 J.P. “瑞克”·盖林的问题。您能分享一些关于他的故事和您最珍贵的回忆吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,他是我几十年来最亲密的朋友之一。他很有趣,是一位出色的绅士。当然,我们一起合作取得了不少成就。

瑞克是沃伦·巴菲特、瑞克·盖林和查理·芒格这个小团体的一员,我们当时在蓝筹印花公司因反垄断和解而股权被广泛分置时,买下了它的控股权。我们合作了很久很久,后来瑞克和我在另一个场合又一起做了《每日邮报》。

Questions Question: In this year’s annual letter, you mentioned the share price increase was driven by speculative frenzy and forced index buying. I would imagine that applies to the broad market too. What are the psychological implications of this type of market behavior? What could investors do to cope better with periodical frenzy? Charlie Munger: Well, these things do happen in a market economy. You get crazy booms. Remember the Dot Com boom when every little building in Silicon Valley ran into a huge price and a few months later about a third of them were vacant. There are these periods in capitalism. I’ve been around for a long time and my policy has always been to just write them out. And I think that’s what shareholders do. In fact, what a lot of shareholders actually do is crowd in buying stocks on frenzy—frequently on credit—because they see that they’re going up. And, of course, that’s a very dangerous way to invest. I think that shareholders should be more sensible and not crowd into stocks and buy them just because they’re going up and they like to gamble. Kipling once wrote a poem called The Women (The Ladies) and the concluding line was to the effect that you should learn about women from him instead of doing it yourself, because, he says, I know you won’t follow my advice. Question: What are Mr. Munger’s thoughts on the recent GameStop short squeeze by social media and the resulting implications on short selling in the future? And another shareholder asked: Dear Mr. Munger, please share your thoughts on the recent /r/WallStreetBets GameStop short squeeze. It seems to involve a lot of your standard causes of human misjudgment. Charlie Munger: Well, it certainly does and that’s the kind of thing that can happen when you get a whole lot of people who are using liquid stock markets to gamble the way they would on embedding on resources. And that’s what we have going in the stock market in a frenzy that’s fed by people who are getting commissions and other revenues out of this new bunch of gamblers. And, of course, when things get extreme you have things like that short squeeze. It’s not generally noticed by the public but clearinghouses clear all these trades. And when things get as crazy as they were in the event you’re talking about, there are threats of clearinghouse failure. So it gets very dangerous. And it’s really stupid to have a culture that encourages as much gambling in stocks by people who have the mindset of race track betters. And, of course, it’s going to create trouble as it did. I have a very simple idea on the subject. I think you should try and make your money in this world by selling other people things that are good for them. And if you’re selling them gambling services where you make profits off of the top, like many of these new brokers who specialize in luring the amateurs in, I think it’s a dirty way to make money. And I think that we’re crazy to allow it. Question: What do you hope the future of the Daily Journal Corporation looks like in a decade? Charlie Munger: Well, I certainly hope that they succeed mightily in their software endeavor to automate all these courts for the modern world. And, I think that could happen, but, of course, that’s not a sure thing. I hope the newspaper survives too. And that’s not a sure thing either. Question: The highly configurable JTI product may help e-suites integrate deeply into new jurisdictions as agencies and citizens become familiar with the courthouse software. Today, the majority of contractual revenue that can be identified is from implementations and licenses. What are the main sources of ancillary revenue expected once the products have gone live and how meaningful will the products like eFile-it, ePay-it, cloud hosting services, and others become? Charlie Munger: Well, we don’t really know where it’s all going. We do know one thing and that is that the courts of the whole world are going to be taken into the modern age. And, as Gerry has just said to me just after breakfast, you wouldn’t want to invest in a parking lot by a courthouse for the future because an awful lot of the court proceedings are going to go to the internet. This is a highly desirable thing. If you go to a little country like Estonia, the whole damn country is on the internet and it’s a very good idea. So, I think you can count on the fact that what we’re doing is going to be a big growing field. That’s the good news. The bad news is it’s not clear who’s gonna win all the business or how much money is going to be made. Generally speaking, people assume that we’re a normal software company like Microsoft or something. We are in fact being a more difficult type of software business than Microsoft. When you respond to software by the RFP process, it’s a very difficult, demanding business and it’s less profitable and less sure than what Microsoft does. We love it anyway. It’s doing a big public service. Question: We have a couple of questions about J.P. “Rick” Guerin. Would you share a few stories about him and your fondest memory? Charlie Munger: Well, he was one of my closest friends for many decades. And, he was very good company and a splendid gentleman. Of course, we accomplished quite a bit working together. Rick was part of the group which consisted of Warren Buffett, Rick Guerin, and Charlie Munger that bought control of Blue Chip Stamps when it was widely distributed in an anti-trust settlement. We were together in that for a long, long time, and then Rick and I did the Daily Journal together on another occasion.

里克总是很幽默,总是很聪明。我讲过里克的一个故事:他参加海军的智商测试,拿到了有记录以来的最高分之一,然后提前离开了考场。这种事可不常见。正因为他聪明绝顶,所以才在人生中晋升得那么快。

和他在一起很有趣,因为他总是跳飞机、玩降落伞、跑马拉松,做各种我绝不会考虑的事情。他还特别爱开玩笑,喜欢逗人。

他一生都非常勇敢、慷慨,乐于帮助身边的每一个人。我们非常想念里克。但他已经 90 岁了,度过了漫长而精彩的一生。他和我年纪差不多。当这些人离去时,无人可以替代。格里,你还记得里克有过消沉的时候吗?他总是精神饱满。

格里·萨尔兹曼:确实总是精神饱满。他总是兴致勃勃、与时俱进,发表评论时不需要花很多时间来了解背景信息,总能说到点子上。

查理·芒格:嗯,能在智商测试中提前离场拿到最高分,确实有帮助。

提问者:现在我们现金流为正——假设软件业务在有机投资上已经做到最大——请问《每日新闻》在资本配置方面的理念是什么?如果我们的软件业务成长为一家真正的公司,传统的股息和回购是不是最终的状态?还是说,董事会更倾向于不时地买入并持有证券?大家都知道,这不是一个小型的伯克希尔·哈撒韦。我只是想了解一下长期的资本配置思路。

查理·芒格:嗯,我们这里最有前途的业务就是实现法院自动化的软件业务。我们会全力以赴地推进它。我们希望在这方面做得很好。至于有价证券,在当前条件下,我们更愿意持有普通股而不是现金,我们持有这么多有价证券,多少有点偶然。

提问者:近几年,伯克希尔·哈撒韦在公司的继任考虑上提供了更多的透明度,并且在股东大会上展示了将带领伯克希尔走向未来的核心管理层。这些举措让一些股东对自己的投资有了更清晰的了解和更大的信心。您能否就《每日新闻》的未来提供类似的见解?您是否考虑实施像伯克希尔那样的政策,让股东们有机会了解组织中崭露头角的领导者?

查理·芒格:嗯,做计算机软件的团队干得非常出色——格里手下的玛里乔和丹尼。我们希望他们能继续干得出色。但是,当然,这是一个非常困难的领域。竞争很激烈,与我们的主要竞争对手相比,我们是一家非常小的公司。所以,我们不能保证一定会成功。

Rick was always humorous. Always intelligent. I tell a story on Rick that he took the Navy’s IQ test and got one of the highest scores ever recorded and left early. That doesn’t happen. That’s the reason he rose so fast in life. He was just so damn smart. He was fun to be with because he was always jumping out of airplanes and parachutes and running marathons and so on, doing all kinds of things I would never consider doing. And he was a great kidder. He loved to kid people. He was very courageous and generous in helping everybody around him all his life. We miss Rick terribly. But he was 90 years of age. He had a long and wonderful run. He was old as I am. When these people go, there is none replacing them. Gerry, can you ever remember Rick down? He was always upbeat. Gerald Salzman: Always upbeat, yes. And interested and up to speed and didn’t have to take a lot of time to get background information to make his comments. Always on point. Charlie Munger: Well, it helps to be able to leave the IQ test early with the highest score. Questions: Now that we are cash flow positive—assuming the software business is investing organically as much as it can—what is the philosophical thinking with respect to capital allocation at the Daily Journal. Are traditional dividends and share repurchases the likely endstate—assuming our software business grows into a bonafide company—or will buying and holding securities from time to time be what the board is comfortable with? Everyone knows this isn’t a small cap Berkshire Hathaway. I’m just trying to get a feel for what the long-term capital allocation is. Charlie Munger: Well, the business around here that has the most promise is our software business automating the courts. And we’re gonna play that as hard as we can. And, we hope to do well in it. [As for] marketable securities, we prefer owning common stocks to holding cash under current conditions and it’s kind of an accident that we have so much in marketable securities. Question: In recent years, Berkshire Hathaway has provided much greater insight into the company’s succession thoughts and has made available at the annual meeting the company’s leading managers that will steer Berkshire’s future. These actions have given some shareholders more visibility and comfort on their investment. Can you provide similar insight regarding the future at the Daily Journal and would you consider implementing policies like those at Berkshire so shareholders can get to know the up-and-coming leaders in the organization? Charlie Munger: Well, the people doing the computer software are doing magnificently well— the people under Gerry: Maryjo and Danny. We hope they’ll continue doing magnificently well. But, of course, it’s a very difficult field. There’s a lot of competition and we’re a very small company compared to our main competitor. And so, we can’t promise we’re going to succeed.

我们所能承诺的是,我们会努力去做,而且就我目前所见,我们做得相当不错。格里,你不觉得我们做得挺好吗?

杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼:我觉得是这样,查理。

查理·芒格:我还要更进一步说。我相信玛丽乔和丹尼做得不错,这一点并不让格里意外。但他们做得这么好,着实让我吃惊。

杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼:查理多次提到法院系统。JTI 软件已经配置到其他司法和正义机构,包括地区检察官、公诉人、公设辩护人、缓刑部门等。所以,我们有一个基本系统,以多种不同方式配置,包括为美国一个大州的工伤保险系统提供服务。

查理·芒格:这是一个巨大的领域,我们非常有趣地切入其中,在澳大利亚和加利福尼亚拥有最强的立足点。我们无法承诺结果会如何,但我们非常努力,并且对进展有一些积极的印象。有一点我可以保证,我对这个领域贡献不会太多,因为我不懂它。

提问:许多观察者看到的市场行为让他们想起互联网泡沫:疯狂投机、层出不穷的 SPAC、IPO 首日暴涨。你是否同意这与 90 年代末高度相似,因此“结局必然很糟糕”?

查理·芒格:是的,我认为结局必然很糟糕,但我不知道什么时候。

提问:似乎每个人——包括演员、运动员、歌手和政客——都在参与推广自己的 SPAC。你如何看待所有的 SPAC 以及推动它们的发起人?

查理·芒格:嗯,我完全没有参与。而且我认为没有它们,世界会更好。我认为,这种对连企业都没找到或选定的疯狂投机,是一个令人恼火的泡沫的迹象。投资银行业就是只要能卖掉狗屎就卖狗屎。

提问:去年 2 月,你谈到了金融体系中的可耻过度。考虑到过去一年的发展,你能就你对体系中可耻过度的评估给我们一个更新吗?哪里表现得最为严重?

查理·芒格:最严重的地方在于,被 Robinhood 这类新型券商吸引来的新手投资者进行的动量交易。我认为所有这些活动都令人遗憾。没有这些,文明会运转得更好。

你可能记得,当第一个大泡沫出现时,也就是 18 世纪英国的南海泡沫,它最终破裂时造成了如此巨大的破坏,以至英国在之后几十年里几乎不允许任何公司进行公开交易和证券交易。它简直制造了一团不可收拾的混乱。

所以,人类的贪婪和券商群体的侵略性时不时催生这些泡沫。我认为明智的人应该远离它们。

提问:在你过去的演讲中,你曾提到“等同于挪用公款的职能等价物”这个说法,用来描述泡沫形成的情况,因为泡沫中的双方都相信资产的实际价值高于其真实价值。今天的美国国债会是这种情况吗?既然国债是其他所有资产价值的基础,这又意味着什么?谢谢您为我们所做的一切教育。

查理·芒格:不,我不认为国债存在泡沫。我认为在利率这么低的情况下,它们是糟糕的投资。我从不买国债,《每日日报》也不买。但我不认为国债是一个大问题。

我确实认为,我们不知道这些人为的低利率会造成什么影响,也不清楚随着政府印这么多额外的钱,经济未来会如何运作。我唯一的观点是,我不确定任何人知道未来一定会发生什么。最近有报道称拉里·萨默斯担心我们刺激过度了。我不知道他是不是对的。

提问:你之前说过:“手持大量现金什么也不做需要品格。我不是靠追逐平庸机会才走到今天的。”过去几年,股票价格大幅上涨,而由于央行的政策,现金可以说变得更危险了。你是否考虑过修改这句引言或降低标准?

查理·芒格:我认为,当利率像现在这么低时,每个人都愿意以更高的市盈率持有股票。所以,好公司的市盈率远高于过去,这不一定疯狂。

另一方面,如你所说,我不是通过在疯狂投机热潮中以高市盈率买股票致富的。我不会改变。相比利率低得多的时候,我更愿意以高市盈率持有股票。每个人都这样。

提问:你认为在 GDP 下降的世界里,价值投资仍然适用吗?还有,被动投资呢?

查理·芒格:这个问题简单。价值投资永远不会过时。因为价值投资——按我的理解——总是想要在买入股票时获得比你支付的价格更多的价值。这种方法永远不会过时。

All we can promise is that we’re gonna try and so far as I can tell, we’re doing pretty well. Gerry, don’t you think we’re doing pretty well? Gerald Salzman: I think so, Charlie. Charlie Munger: I would go further. I don’t think Gerry is surprised that the people doing the work—Maryjo and Danny—are doing well. But I’m flabbergasted at how well they’re doing. Gerald Salzman: Charlie refers to the courts, many times. The JTI software has been configured for other judicial and justice agencies, including district attorneys, prosecutors, public defenders, probation, etc. So we have one basic system configured in a number of different ways, including worker’s comp for a large state in the United States. Charlie Munger: It’s a huge field in which we have a very interesting toehold with the strongest toeholds in Australia and California. We can’t promise what the outcome will be but we are trying pretty hard and we get some favorable impressions of progress. One thing I can promise is that I won’t contribute much to it because I don’t understand it. Questions: Many observers see market behavior that reminds them of the Dot Com bubble: wild speculation, endless SPACs, and IPOs soaring on their first day of trading. Do you agree that there is a close parallel to the late 90s and that this, therefore, “must end badly?” Charlie Munger: Yes, I think it must end badly but I don’t know when. Question: It seems like everyone—including actors, athletes, singers, and politicians—is getting into the business of promoting their own SPAC. What do you think of all of the SPACs and the promoters pushing them? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t participate at all. And I think the world would be better off without them. I think this kind of crazy speculation in enterprises not even found or picked out yet is a sign of an irritating bubble. It’s just that the investment banking profession will sell shit as long as shit can be sold. Question: Last February, you spoke about the wretched excess in the financial system. Given the developments over the past year, could you give us an update on your assessment of wretched excess in the system? Where does it appear most egregious? Charlie Munger: Well, it’s most egregious in the momentum trading by novice investors lured in by new types of brokerage operations like Robinhood. I think all of this activity is regrettable. I think civilization would do better without it. You’ll remember that when the first big bubble came, which was the South Sea bubble in England back in the 1700s, it created such havoc eventually when it blew up that England didn’t allow hardly any public trading and securities of any companies for decades thereafter. It just created the most unholy mess. So human greed and the aggression of the brokerage community create these bubbles from time to time. And I think wise people should just stay out of them. Question: In your past speeches, you have mentioned the term functional equivalent of embezzlement to describe situations where bubbles can form because both parties involved in a bubble believe the asset to be worth more than it truly is. Can U.S. Treasury bonds be such a case today? And what are the implications, since Treasury assets underpin the value of every other asset? Thank you for all you do to educate us. Charlie Munger: Well no, I don’t think we have a bubble in Treasury securities. I think they’re a bad investment when interest rates are this low. I never buy any and neither does Daily Journal. But, no, I don’t think Treasury securities are a big problem. I do think that we don’t know what these artificially low interest rates are going to do or how the economy is going to work in the future as governments print all this extra money. The only opinion I have there is that I don’t think anybody knows what’s going to happen for sure. Larry Summers has recently been quoted as being worried that we’re having too much stimulus. And I don’t know whether he’s right or not. Question: Previously, you have said; It takes character to sit with all that cash and do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities. In the past few years, equity prices have increased significantly and cash has arguably become riskier due to central banking policy. Have you considered amending this quote or lowering your standards? Charlie Munger: I think everybody is willing to hold stocks at higher price-earnings multiples when interest rates are as low as they are now. And so I don’t think it’s necessarily crazy that good companies sell at way higher multiples than they used to. On the other hand, as you say, I didn’t get rich by buying stocks at high price-earnings multiples in the midst of crazy speculative booms. I’m not going to change. I am more willing to hold stocks at high multiples than I would be if interest rates were a lot lower. Everybody is. Question: Do you think value investing is still relevant in a GDP-decreasing world? And, what about passive investing? Charlie Munger: Well, that is easy. Value Investing will never go out of style. Because value investing—the way I conceive it—is always wanting to get more value than you pay for when you buy a stock. That approach will never go out of style.

有些人认为价值投资就是去追逐那些持有大量现金、但身处糟糕行业或类似情况的公司。我可不这么定义价值投资。我认为所有好的投资都是价值投资。区别只在于,有些人在强势公司中寻找价值,有些人在弱势公司中寻找价值。每一个价值投资者都是试图获得比他付出的更多的价值。

有趣的是,在财富管理领域,很多人认为如果他们拥有一百只股票,他们的投资就比只持有四五只股票更专业。我认为这简直是疯了。绝对的疯狂。

我发现,找到四五只我有相当大把握判断它们会远高于平均水平以上的投资,要容易得多。我认为找到五只比找到一百只容易得多。

我称之为“去多元化”——这是我抄袭某人的说法。我更愿意持有两三只我认为自己有所了解、并且我认为自己有优势的股票。

问题:为什么伯克希尔·哈撒韦在尽快抛售富国银行的股票,而《每日日报》却只卖了一股?如果它对于伯克希尔来说不够好,难道我们不应该用同样的标准吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我不认为我们在每件事上都必须完全一致。我们有不同的税务考量。毫无疑问,富国银行让像伯克希尔这样的长期投资者失望了,因为已经被撤换的旧管理层——他们并非有意作恶或偷窃,但在交叉销售的文化中判断力极差,这种文化下,对薪酬微薄的员工的激励过大,促使他们销售客户并不真正需要的东西。当有证据表明这个体系运转不佳,因为一些员工在欺骗一些客户时,他们却严厉对待客户,而不是改变这个体系。那是一个重大的判断失误。当然,这很遗憾。

所以,你就能理解为什么沃伦对富国银行感到失望了。我想我稍微宽容一些。我对银行家的期望比他要低。

问题:与其他股票相比,持有银行股背后的智慧是什么?它们更稳定吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为所有股票都可能波动。我确实认为,经营得当的银行业务是一门非常好的生意。但是,一位非常睿智的人曾说过:银行业的问题在于,我们有比银行家更多的银行。

那种拥有巴菲特式心态、从不会惹麻烦的高管是少数群体,而非多数群体。明智地经营银行很困难。有很多诱惑让人去做些愚蠢的事,这些事会让下一季度利润上升,但长期来看是有害的。

Some people think that value investing is you chase companies that have a lot of cash and they’re in a lousy business or something. I don’t define that as value investing. I think all good investing is value investing. It’s just that some people look for values in strong companies and some look for values in weak companies. Every value investor tries to get more value than he pays for. What is interesting is that in wealth management, a lot of people think that if they have a hundred stocks they’re investing more professionally than they are if they have four or five. I regard this as insanity. Absolute insanity. I find it much easier to find four or five investments where I have a pretty reasonable chance of being right that they’re way above average. I think it’s much easier to find five than it is to find a hundred. I call it deworsification—which I copied from somebody. I’m way more comfortable owning two or three stocks which I think I know something about and where I think I have an advantage. Question: Why is Berkshire Hathaway selling shares of Wells Fargo as quickly as one can and the Daily Journal has sold one share? If it’s not good enough for Berkshire, shouldn’t we have the same standards? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t think it’s required that we be exactly the same on everything. We have different tax considerations. There’s no question about the fact that Wells Fargo has disappointed long-term investors like Berkshire because the old management—which is now removed—were not consciously malevolent or thieving but they had terrible judgment in having a culture of cross-selling where the incentives on the poorly paid employees were too great to sell stuff that customers didn’t really need. And when the evidence came in that the system wasn’t working very well because some of the employees were cheating some of the customers, they came down hard on the customers instead of changing the system. That was a big error in judgment. And, of course, it’s regrettable. So, you can understand why Warren got disenchanted with Wells Fargo. I think I’m a little more lenient. I expect less out of bankers than he does. Question: What is the wisdom behind holding bank stocks compared to other stocks. Are they more stable? Charlie Munger: Well, I think all stocks can fluctuate. I do think banking run intelligently is a very good business. But, a very wise man said on an earlier occasion: The trouble with banking is that we have more banks than we have bankers. The kind of executives who have a Buffett-like mindset and never get in trouble are a minority group, not a majority group. It’s hard to run a bank intelligently. There’s a lot of temptation to do dumb things which will make the earnings next quarter go up but are bad for the long term.

也有银行家抵挡不住诱惑。投资银行股确实不容易,但绝非不可能成功。

问:长期来看,像美国银行和美国合众银行——这两家都是《每日邮报》公司的持仓股——面临的最大竞争威胁是什么?是 PayPal、Square 或 Apple Pay 这样的数字钱包?是比特币、去中心化金融,还是别的什么?

查理·芒格:嗯,我不认为自己确切知道银行业的未来,也不清楚支付系统会如何演变。但我确实认为,一家运营得当的银行是对文明的巨大贡献,而世界各国的中央银行都喜欢控制自己的银行体系和货币供应。

所以,我不认为比特币最终会成为世界的交换媒介。它波动太大,无法很好地充当交换媒介。它其实只是一种黄金的人造替代品,而我从不买黄金,也从不买比特币。我建议其他人也效仿我的做法。比特币让我想起奥斯卡·王尔德对猎狐的评价。他说那是“无法言说者追逐无法下咽之物”。

问:你对加密货币的看法有没有改变?《每日邮报》公司会不会像特斯拉最近那样,将比特币或任何其他加密货币作为资产负债表上的资产?

查理·芒格:我们不会跟随特斯拉买入比特币。

问:比亚迪是《每日邮报》公司股票投资组合中的一大持仓,账面收益非常可观。去年和今年股价涨幅惊人,可能已经远超内在价值。你怎么决定是继续持有还是卖出部分?

查理·芒格:嗯,这个问题问得很好。比亚迪股票在我们持有的头五年里毫无作为。去年它涨了五倍。发生的情况是,比亚迪在中国汽车生产从汽油驱动转向电力驱动的过程中占据了非常有利的位置。你可以想象它的处境非常好,这刺激了中国市场——那里不乏疯狂的投机者。所以股价大幅上涨。

我们钦佩这家公司,也喜欢它的处境。当我们卖出时,要向联邦政府和加利福尼亚州缴纳一大笔税款。总的来说,在某些头寸上我们会继续持有,而通常我们不会建立新的头寸。基本上所有人都会这么做。

我一位做风投的非常聪明的朋友,经常以高得离谱的价格拿到大堆股票。他的做法是,总是卖出大约一半。这样,无论发生什么,他都觉得自己很明智。我不遵循这种做法,但也不批评它。

And some bankers yield to the temptations. It’s difficult, but it’s not impossible investing in bank stocks successfully. Question: What is the biggest competitive threat to U.S. banks like Bank of America and US Bank—both equity holdings of the Daily Journal Corporation—over the long term? Is it digital wallets like PayPal, Square, or Apple Pay? Is it Bitcoin, decentralized finance, or something else? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t think I know exactly what the future of banking is and I don’t think I know how the payment system will evolve. I do think that a properly run bank is a great contributor to civilization and that the central banks of the world like controlling their own banking system and their own money supplies. So, I don’t think Bitcoin is going to end up as the medium of exchange for the world. It’s too volatile to serve well as a medium of exchange. It’s really kind of an artificial substitute for gold, and since I never buy any gold, I never buy any Bitcoin. I recommend that other people follow my practice. Bitcoin reminds me of what Oscar Wilde said about fox hunting. He said it was the pursuit of the uneatable by the unspeakable. Question: Has your opinion on cryptocurrencies remained the same? And would the Daily Journal consider Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency as an asset on the balance sheet similar to what Tesla recently did? Charlie Munger: We will not be following Tesla into bitcoin. Question: BYD is in the Daily Journal stock portfolio with a very big paper gain. The stock has gained so much this year and last year. The stock appreciated probably way more than intrinsic value. How do you decide to hold on to a stock or sell some? Charlie Munger: Well, that’s a very good question. BYD stock did nothing for the first five years we held it. Last year it quintupled. What happened is that BYD is very well positioned for the transfer of Chinese automobile production from gasoline-driven cars to electricity-driven cars. You can imagine it’s in a wonderful position and that excited the people in China which has its share of crazy speculators. And so, the stock went way up. We admire the company and like its position. And we pay huge taxes to a combination of the federal government and the state of California when we sell something. On balance, we hold in certain of these position when, normally, we wouldn’t buy a new position. Practically everybody does that. One of my smartest friends in venture capital is constantly getting huge clumps of stocks at nosebleed prices. And what he does is he sells about half of them always. That way, whatever happens, he feels smart. I don’t follow that practice but I don’t criticize it either.

提问:你是否认为电动汽车制造商的估值已经处于泡沫区域?

伯克希尔和李录都持有比亚迪股份,你过去曾高度评价这家公司。比亚迪目前市盈率接近 200 倍。这比特斯拉便宜,后者目前市盈率超过 1100 倍,市销率 24 倍。我知道伯克希尔是长期持有者,很少仅仅因为持仓中的优质公司估值过高就卖出其证券。例如过去的可口可乐。但是,是否存在一个价格高到公司未来利润根本无法证明其合理性的程度?既然我们谈到了可能卖出被高估的证券,你能分享你的卖出体系吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我很少持有像比亚迪这样股价涨到让人流鼻血的公司,所以我不认为自己已经有什么体系。我也是边学边做。我认为你可以指望这样一个事实:如果我们真的喜欢这家公司,喜欢它的管理层——我们对比亚迪就是这种感觉——我们很可能会过于忠诚。我不认为我们会改变这一点。

提问:为什么大约两年前,你认为好市多是唯一值得买入的美国股票?你为什么觉得亚马逊更怕好市多,而不是好市多更怕亚马逊?如果你认为杰夫·贝佐斯是你认识的最优秀的企业家之一,你会考虑在他不必再过多关注亚马逊日常职责后、必然会集中精力投入的新项目中早期投资吗?

查理·芒格:我是杰夫·贝佐斯的超级崇拜者,我认为他是有史以来最聪明的商人之一。但我不会追随他。我们有我们自己的怪癖,而且我对那方面了解不够,不想介入。当你面对这些难题时,很多非常聪明、值得尊敬的人会得出相反的结论。确实,好市多有一个亚马逊没有的东西。人们真正信任好市多会提供巨大的价值。这就是好市多对亚马逊构成一定威胁的原因。在提供价值方面,它的声誉比几乎任何公司都好,包括亚马逊。

提问:在一个像通用电气这样形象良好的合理公司会迅速跌入股市谷底的世界里,你如何控制你的投资?你如何识别你持有或投资的公司可能出现的衰落?或者,是否根本不可能足够快地察觉到恶化进而无亏损地退出?

查理·芒格:嗯,我从未持有过一股通用电气股票,因为我不喜欢它的文化。当它爆雷时,我一点也不惊讶。我确实认为现任首席执行官是一位极其能干的人,董事会任命他掌权是非常明智的选择。我认为通用电气的董事会因让拉里·卡尔普担任首席执行官而值得获得很多赞誉。如果有人能修复它,那就是他。

提问:众所周知,你通过自己的心理清单来运行投资。有没有什么你希望自己更早添加到清单里的东西?

Question: Do you believe the valuations for electric car manufacturers are in bubble territory? Both Berkshire and Li Lu own BYD Company which you spoke highly of in the past. BYD sells at nearly 200 P/E. This is cheap compared to Tesla currently valued at over 1100 times P/E and 24 times sales. I know Berkshire is a long-term owner and rarely sells securities of high-quality companies it owns in its portfolio simply because it’s overvalued. For example, Coca-Cola in the past. However, is there a price too high that the company’s future profits simply cannot justify? And since we are on the subject of selling potentially overvalued security, could you provide your systems for selling securities? Charlie Munger: Well, I so rarely hold a company like BYD that goes to a nosebleed price that I don’t think I’ve got a system yet. I’m just learning as I go along. I think you can count on the fact that if we really like the company and we like the management—and that is the way we feel about BYD—we’re likely to be a little too loyal. I don’t think we’ll change on that. Question: Why, almost two years ago, did you believe that Costco was the only U.S. stock worth buying? And why did you feel that Amazon had more to fear from Costco than Costco had to fear from Amazon? And if you believe Jeff Bezos is one of the best businessmen you have ever known, would you consider investing early in any of the new projects he will inevitably focus his attention on now that he will not have to be as concerned about the day to day responsibilities of Amazon? Charlie Munger: I’m a great admirer of Jeff Bezos whom I consider one of the smartest businessmen who ever lived. But I won’t be following him. We have our crotchets and I just don’t know enough about it to want to go into that activity. When you get into these hard questions, there’s a lot of very intelligent honorable people who reach opposite conclusions. Costco I do think has one thing that Amazon does not. People really trust Costco will be delivering enormous value. And that is why Costco presents some danger to Amazon. They’ve got a better reputation for providing value than practically anybody, including Amazon. Question: How do you control your investments in a world where reasonable companies with a good image like General Electric sink rapidly into the bottomland of the stock market. How do you recognize a potential downfall in a company you hold/invest in? Or, is it impossible to realize a deterioration quickly enough to exit without a loss? Charlie Munger: Well, I never owned a share of General Electric because I didn’t like the culture. And, I was not surprised when it blew up. I do think the present CEO is an extraordinarily able man and the directors made a very wise choice when they put him in charge. And I think the directors of GE deserve a lot of credit for making Larry Culp the CEO. If anybody can fix it, he can. Question: You famously run investments through your mental checklist. Is there anything that you wish you had added to your checklist sooner?

查理·芒格:嗯,我经常会犯错,事后回想起来,总觉得自己当时本应做出不同的决定。我认为这是不可避免的,因为做一个好的投资者本来就不容易。

我现在对自己挺宽容的。我对事情的发展结果感到满意,别人做得比我好时,我也不会咬牙切齿。

我认为我使用的方法,包括清单检查法,都是正确的方法。我很庆幸自己很早就找到了它们,而且它们的效果也确实很好。我建议其他人也效仿我的做法。

这让我想起了班扬《天路历程》中的那句关键的话:我的剑,留给能挥舞它的人。恐怕我们都得这样把自己的剑传下去。

提问者:你和沃伦都非常善于快速判断一个人,尤其是企业领导者和潜在的商业伙伴。你看重领导者身上的哪些特质?你和沃伦有没有什么诀窍或捷径,能快速且准确地判断一个人?

查理·芒格:哦,当然,如果一个人是个长期酗酒者,我们会避开他。每个人都有一些筛选危险因素的捷径。我们可能比其他人拥有更多这样的捷径。多年来,这些捷径对我们很管用。

伯克希尔运作方式的一大优势是,我们与许多优秀的人士打交道。如果你停下来想一想,《每日日报》也是如此。

哪家小型报业公司在所有报纸都被摧毁的危机中,比小小的《每日日报》做得更好?而且我们这里有杰出的人才帮助我们度过非常艰难的时期,其中一位就是格里·萨尔兹曼。

格里和我在一起多久了,格里?

杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼:70 年代初。

查理·芒格:70 年代初。这事儿挺有意思的。我很早就意识到,格里可以经营任何他想经营的事业。当《每日日报》的老 CEO 去世时,格里正在管理芒格托尔斯律师事务所的业务。但他之前曾为里克·格林和我工作,经营一家我们买下控制权的小型共同基金。他给人留下了非常好的印象。

我对里克说,我们要让格里来当《每日日报》的负责人。他倒吸一口气说,但他从来没和报纸或者其他任何东西打过交道。我说,那没关系,他能干得了。我们立刻就行动了,把格里安排进去,从那以后,他把每一个决策都做得非常出色。这就是我们的体系。

Charlie Munger: Well, I’m constantly making mistakes where I can, in retrospect, realize that I should have decided differently. And I think that that is inevitable because it’s difficult to be a good investor. I’m pretty easy on myself these days. I’m satisfied with the way things have worked out and I’m not gnashing my teeth when other people are doing better. I think that the methods that I’ve used including the checklists are the correct methods and I’m grateful that I found them as early as I did and that the methods have worked as well as they have. I recommend that other people follow my example. It reminds me of the key phrase and Bunyan’s Pilgrim’s Progress in which he says: My sword I leave to him who can wear it. I’m afraid that’s the way we all have to leave our swords. Question: You and Warren have been adept at quickly sizing people up, particularly business leaders and potential business partners. What do you look for in a leader? And do you and Warren have any tricks or shortcuts to size people up quickly and accurately? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, if a person is a chronic drunk, we avoid him. Everybody has shortcuts to screen out certain hazards. And we probably have more of those shortcuts than others. They’ve served us well over the years. One of the great advantages of the way Berkshire operates is that we associate with a lot of marvelous people. And if you stop to think about it, that is also true at the Daily Journal. What little newspaper company has come through the crisis of this destroying of all the newspapers better than the little Daily Journal? And we’ve had marvelous people here to help us do it through very difficult times and one of them is Gerry Salzman. Gerry and I have been together, how many years Gerry? Gerald Salzman: Early 70s. Charlie Munger: Early 70s. And it’s rather interesting. I recognized early that Gerry could run anything he wanted to run. And when the old CEO of the Daily Journal died, Gerry was managing the business affairs of the Munger Tolles law firm. But he previously worked for Rick Guerin and me in running a little mutual fund that we bought control of. And he made a very favorable impression. I said to Rick, we’re going to make Gerry the head of the Daily Journal. He gasped and said, but he’s never had anything to do with newspapers or anything else. I said it won’t matter. He’ll be able to do it. And we immediately ascended, we put Gerry in, and he’s made every decision wonderfully ever since. That’s our system.

汤姆·墨菲常说,他的管理体系就是“授权到几乎等于完全甩手”。而我们就是这么对待杰里的。

提问:您觉得哪个更疯狂——比特币 5 万美元,还是特斯拉完全稀释后 1 万亿美元的企业估值?您怎么看这两种定价?

查理·芒格:嗯,我遇到了和塞缪尔·约翰逊当年面对类似问题时的同样困境。他说:“我无法判断跳蚤和虱子哪个更糟糕。”我对这两个选择也是同样的感觉。我不知道哪个更糟。

提问:既然 Robinhood 的交易是免费的,现在买股票应该征税吗?

查理·芒格:Robinhood 的交易并不免费。当你为订单流付费时,你很可能是在向客户收取更多费用,却假装免费。这是一种非常不光彩的低级话术。谁都不该相信 Robinhood 的交易是免费的。

提问:我的问题关于中国。1860 年,中国人均 GDP 是 600 美元。1978 年,邓小平接过领导权的那一年,是 300 美元。今天,这一数字大约在 9500 美元左右。人类历史上从未见过如此迅速的贫困消除,大约 8 亿人摆脱了赤贫。您曾公开表示非常推崇中国人的勤劳美德和儒家价值观。从美中关系不断恶化可以看出,西方世界并不了解中国。我们该怎么做才能增进对中国文明的认识、理解和欣赏?

查理·芒格:嗯,人们自然会认为自己的文明和民族比其他人优越。但不可能每个人都比其他人强。

你说得对。中国在大国中的经济记录,是世界上有史以来最好的。这非常有意思。

很多人认为,既然英格兰引领了工业革命,而且很早就有了言论自由,那么按照亚当·斯密的理论,言论自由是经济繁荣的必要条件。但中国人证明了,你不需要言论自由也能拥有出色的经济。他们只是照搬了亚当·斯密,却跳过了言论自由,结果对他们来说效果很好。

事实上,我不清楚如果中国复制了英格兰文明的每一个方面,会不会做得更好。我认为结果会更糟,因为他们当时的处境太严峻,贫困太极端,需要非常极端的方法才能摆脱困境。所以我认为中国所做的很可能对中国来说是正确的,我们不应该那么自以为是地告诉中国人他们应该像我们一样行事,只因为我们喜欢自己和自己的制度。我们的制度适合我们,他们的制度适合他们,这完全有可能。

Tom Murphy used to say that his system of management was to delegate just short of total abdication. And that’s the way we handled Gerry. Question: Which do you think is crazier? Bitcoin at 50,000 or Tesla’s fully diluted enterprise value of 1 trillion. What do you make of these two pricings? Charlie Munger: Well, I have the same difficulty that Samuel Johnson once had when he got a similar question. And he said; I can’t decide the order of presidency between a flee and a louse. I feel the same way about those choices. I don’t know which is worse. Question: Should there be a tax on buying stock now that Robinhood trades are free? Charlie Munger: Robinhood trades are not free. When you pay for order flow, you’re probably charging your customers more and pretending to be free. It’s a very dishonorable low-grade way to talk. Nobody should believe that Robinhood’s trades are free. Question: My question concerns China. In 1860, GDP per capita in China was 600. In 1978, the year Deng Xiaoping took over, it was 300. Today, it hovers around 9500. Never before in the history of mankind have we seen such a rapid eradication of poverty, pulling approximately 800 million people out of destitution. You are on record as a zealous fan of the Chinese work ethic and Confucian value system. As we can see from the deteriorating U.S. relationship with China, the Western world does not understand China. What can we do to increase knowledge, understanding, and appreciation of the Chinese civilization? Charlie Munger: Well, it’s natural for people to think their own civilization and their own nation are better than everybody else. But everybody can’t be better than everybody else. You’re right. China’s economic record among the big nations is the best that ever existed in the history of the world. And that’s very interesting. A lot of people assume that since England led the Industrial Revolution and had free speech early that free speech is required to have a booming economy as prescribed by Adam Smith. But the Chinese have proved that you don’t need free speech to have a wonderful economy. They just copied Adam Smith and left out the free speech and it worked fine for them. As a matter of fact, it’s not clear to me that China would have done better if they’d copied every aspect of English civilization. I think they would have come out worse because their position was so dire and the poverty was so extreme, they needed very extreme methods to get out of the fix they were in. So I think what China has done was probably right for China and that we shouldn’t be so pompous as to be telling the Chinese they ought to behave like us because we like ourselves and our system. It’s entirely possible that our system is right for us and their system is right for them.

提问:芒格先生您是中国股票的拥护者。您对近期中国政府干预蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴和马云先生一事有多大担忧?比如,有什么能阻止中国政府某天突然决定将比亚迪国有化?

查理·芒格:嗯,我认为这非常不可能。而且,我觉得马云当时极其傲慢,竟然去告诉中国政府他们的政策有多愚蠢、多糟糕等等。考虑到他们的体制,这根本不是他该做的事。

我认为中国人在管理经济方面表现得非常精明,而且他们在这方面取得的成果比我们更好。我认为这种趋势很可能会持续下去。当然,我们都热爱自己拥有的文明形态。我并不是说我想住在中国。我更喜欢美国。但我确实钦佩中国所取得的成就。你怎么能不钦佩呢?从来没有哪个国家能如此迅速地让一个大国摆脱贫困,等等。

我现在在中国看到的景象让我震惊。中国的工厂里满是机器人,运行得非常完美。

他们不再用农村女工来把我们美国小鞋厂打得头破血流。他们正在非常迅速地融入现代世界,并且操作技能越来越娴熟。

提问:当前美联储维持利率接近零的政策,似乎只会通过让金融资产持有者受益来加剧这个国家的收入不平等。您认为我们可以做些什么来帮助那些因疫情而落后的人?

查理·芒格:很难知道确切的宏观经济政策是否正确。没有人能确切知道多少政府干预是明智的,以及政府应该在什么时候停止干预。

我认为我们在宏观经济预测方面没有什么特别的天赋。我认为,某种程度上,对富人因疫情恐慌而变得更富的抱怨是一种错位的担忧。没有人刻意想让富人更富。我们当时是在极端恶劣的条件下试图拯救整个经济。而且我认为,总的来说,我们做出了当时最切实可行的决策。

我们让富人更富了,这不是刻意的选择,而是拯救整个文明过程中产生的意外副产品。而我们当时采取的行动很可能正是明智的。这并非富人的恶意所致,只是一个意外。下次情况会不同,穷人的致富速度会比富人更快。风水轮流转。

Question: Mr. Munger is a champion of Chinese stocks. How concerned is he about Chinese government interference as seen recently with Ant Financial, Alibaba, and Mr. Jack Ma. What, for example, is to stop the Chinese government from simply deciding one day to nationalize BYD? Charlie Munger: Well, I consider that very unlikely. And, I think Jack Ma was very arrogant to be telling the Chinese government how dumb they were, how stupid their policies were, and so forth. Considering their system, that is not what he should have been doing. I think the Chinese have behaved very shrewdly in managing their economy and they’ve gotten better results than we have in managing our economy. I think that that will probably continue. Sure, we all love the kind of civilization we have. I’m not saying I wanted to live in China. I prefer the United States. But I do admire what the Chinese have done. How can you not? Nobody else has ever taken a big country out of poverty so fast and so on. What I see in China now just staggers me. There are factories in China that are just absolutely full of robots and are working beautifully. They’re no longer using peasant girls to beat the brains out of our little shoe companies in America. They are joining the modern world very rapidly and they’re getting very skillful at operating. Question: It seems likely that the current Fed policy of keeping interest rates near zero will only exacerbate the income disparity in this country by benefiting those who own the financial assets. What do you think we can do to help those who are currently falling behind as a result of this pandemic? Charlie Munger: It’s hard to know what exact macroeconomic policy is correct. No one knows for sure just how much government intervention is wise and at what point the government should stop intervening. I don’t think we have any great gift at making macroeconomic predictions. I think that to some extent the complaint about the rich getting richer as a result of the COVID panic is a misplaced concern. Nobody was trying to make the rich richer. We were trying to save the whole economy under terrible conditions. And I think, by and large, we made the most practical decisions that were available to us. We made the rich richer, not as a deliberate choice, but because it was an accidental byproduct of trying to save the whole civilization. And it was probably wise that we acted exactly as we did. It wasn’t some malevolence of the rich that caused it. It was an accident. And the next time around the poor will get richer faster than the rich. That thing circulates.

哪个阶层的人能更快致富,这随时代变化而变化,我觉得没人需要对此过于担忧。事实上,要致富一个国家,你需要自由市场体系。如果你有一个自由市场体系,人们正按照亚当·斯密推荐的方式试图致富,那么发生的情况是,这是一个非常令人恼火的体系——因为造成巨大痛苦的贫穷,同时也带来了让所有人摆脱贫困的增长。换句话说,在某种程度上,这是一个自我修正的体系。这使整件事变得非常棘手。而且很遗憾,经济学教科书没有强调,一个增长的经济体需要贫穷才能摆脱贫穷。如果你试图过度减少贫穷,那会适得其反。这些都是非常困难的问题,而大多数人以为很简单。如果我们能把最低工资提高到每秒 10 万美元之类就能让世界更富有,我们当然会这么做,但我们做不到。

提问:芒格先生最近对印钞规模敲响了警钟。他对现代货币理论有什么看法?

查理·芒格:现代货币理论意味着,人们不那么担心政府印钞和花钱导致像魏玛德国那样的通胀灾难。到目前为止,证据或许表明现代货币理论可能是对的。但把我列为怀疑派吧。我不知道答案。

提问:美联储似乎在支持资产价格。考虑到这对制造金融过度和收入不平等的影响,您认为这是否是一个值得追求的政策目标?您认为长期后果会是什么?

查理·芒格:嗯,我不知道未来经济会运行得怎么样。而且我不认为我们或《每日日报》是靠着什么绝妙的宏观经济洞察力才领先的。

我确实认为,我比大多数为此愤愤不平的人更不害怕不平等。我认为不平等绝对是我们拥有那些让国家越来越富、提升穷人生活的政策的必然结果。所以,我不介意一点不平等,而且我注意到,富裕家庭通常——而且相当快地——会失去权力和财富。所以我并不担心国家会被少数比我们其他人富得快一点的人毁掉。

我认为中国人非常聪明。想象一下,一群中国共产主义者迅速把很多中国人变成亿万富翁。而中国共产主义者在死亡税方面做了什么?中国的死亡税是零。这就是共产主义者在做的事。顺便说一句,我认为他们很可能是对的。

提问:许多人认为,这场疫情加剧的不平等已达到令人警惕的水平,需要财富税等激进解决方案。您同意这个前提吗?如果同意,您会如何解决不平等问题?

Who gets rich faster by class is going to vary over time and I don’t think anybody should be too concerned by it. As a matter of fact, what happens is to make a nation rich, you need a free market system. And if you have a free market system that’s trying to get rich in the way recommended by Adam Smith, what happens is that it’s a very irritating system because the poverty that causes so much misery is also causing the growth that makes everybody get out of poverty. In other words, to some extent, it’s a self-correcting system. That makes the whole thing very awkward. And it’s a shame that the economics textbooks don’t emphasize how much a growing economy needs poverty in order to get out of poverty. If you try and reduce the poverty too much, it’s counterproductive. These are very difficult questions and most people assume that it’s simple. If we could make the world richer by just raising the minimum wage to $100,000 a second or something, of course we would do it but. But we can’t. Question: Mr. Munger recently raised the alarm about the level of money printing taking place. What are his thoughts on modern monetary theory? Charlie Munger: Modern monetary theory means that people are less worried about an inflationary disaster like Weimar Germany from government printing of money and spending it. So far the evidence would be that maybe the monetary modern monetary theory is right. Put me down as skeptical. I don’t know the answer. Question: The Federal Reserve appears to be supporting asset prices. Do you think this is a worthwhile policy objective given the effect it has on creating financial excesses and income inequality? What do you think the long-term consequences will be? Charlie Munger: Well, I don’t know how well the economy’s doing to work in the future. And I don’t think that we or the Daily Journal is getting ahead because we’ve got some wonderful macroeconomic insight. I do think that I’m way less afraid of inequality than most people who are bleeding about it. I think that inequality is absolutely an inevitable consequence of having the policies that make a nation grow richer and richer and elevate the poor. So, I don’t mind a little inequality and what I notice is that the rich families generally lose their power and wealth—and pretty fast. So I don’t worry that the country is being ruined by a few people over getting ahead a little faster than the rest of us. I think the Chinese were very smart. Imagine a bunch of Chinese communists turning a whole lot of Chinese and the billionaires in a big hurry. And what did the Chinese communists do with respect to death taxes? The death tax in China is zero. That’s what the communists are doing. I think they’re probably right, by the way. Question: Many believe that inequality accelerated by this pandemic has reached alarming levels that demand drastic solutions such as a wealth tax. Do you agree with the premise and if so how would you address inequality?

查理·芒格:我认为任何一个富裕国家都应该有一个社会安全网,随着财富的增长而适当扩展。我这一生,美国一直在这么做。我对结果表示赞赏。我认为,如果任何一个政党在整个时期完全掌控,结果反而会更糟。换句话说,我认为我们的建国者给我们的制衡与选举制度,在我有生之年实际上带来了相当正确的政策。我希望未来也能继续如此。但我确实认为,美国的政治现在比以前充满了更多的仇恨和非理性,我认为这不是好事。

提问:许多大企业和高净值个人正在离开加利福尼亚州。您能谈谈其原因、趋势,并做些预测吗?

查理·芒格:是的,我认为这种趋势在我们说话的时候正在加剧。我看到越来越多的富人离开。当然,我认为任何一个州对富人过于友好都是极其愚蠢的。他们带来的好处远多于坏处。他们的钱反正也亏得很快。你不需要替他们担心。

华盛顿州实际上正在考虑征收州级财富税。我认为那将是疯狂之举。我预测如果他们这么做,很多人会离开华盛顿州。

提问:随着 Zoom 和其他技术的远程办公普及,您认为商业房地产的未来会怎样?

查理·芒格:房地产一直是一个困难领域。而近年来,某些类型的房地产尤其困难。我认为办公楼目前有些麻烦,当然,租给商店的商业房地产长期以来也一直麻烦不断。公寓楼表现相对较好。但我认为我在这方面没什么好贡献的。我拥有一些公寓楼,所以我喜欢这种投资,前提是你有完美的管理——而这很难获得。

提问:我想知道您能否分享一些关于 Haven 的想法,特别是它最终关闭的原因。有什么经验教训?

查理·芒格:我对 Haven 一无所知。换个问题吧。

提问:您多次说过,学习商业最好的方法是研究伟大公司几十年的财务业绩。您甚至说,不采用这种方法的商学院是在损害学生的利益。您能否详细说明,一位教授或个人应该如何围绕这种方法来构建课程?例如,您会推荐什么作为课程材料?

查理·芒格:嗯,这就是我的意思。顺便说一句,哈佛商学院在早期起步时,就是从商业史开始的。他们会带你走过运河的修建、铁路的修建,等等等等。你看到的是行业的潮起潮落,以及经济变革中的创造性破坏。这是一段对每个人都有帮助的背景知识。当然,我的意思是,如果我要教商科,我会像很久以前的哈佛商学院那样开始。

我认为他们停止了这种做法,是因为如果你教这门课,你会从各个市场营销教授等那里偷走最好的案例。我只是认为这对他们来说在学术上不方便。但是,当然,你应该先研究资本主义的历史,它是如何运作的,以及为什么,然后再开始学习商业。而他们做得并不好——我说的是商学院。

如果你停下来想一想,长期的商业成功很像生物学。在生物学中,个体都会死亡,最终,所有物种也都会消亡。资本主义几乎和这同样残酷。想想我一生中消亡了多少东西。想想那些曾经繁荣、现在却失败或消失的事物。我年轻的时候,谁会想到柯达和通用汽车会破产呢?你知道,这种破坏所发生的一切简直令人难以置信。当然,了解这段历史是有用的。

提问:[提问者] 引用了您 2007 年在南加州大学法学院毕业典礼上的演讲。我在这里 paraphrase 一下:如果一个文明只有在发明了发明的方法时才能进步,那么你只有在学会了学习的方法时才能进步。我非常幸运,我进入法学院时已经学会了学习的方法,在我漫长的一生中,没有什么比持续学习更能让我受益。[提问者] 想知道查理的学习方法是什么。

查理·芒格:我认为我的性情对了。当别人给我一个好主意,而且我能看出它是个好主意时,我会迅速掌握它,并在余生中开始使用它。你可能会说每个人在接受教育时都会这样做,但我不认为每个人都做到了。这是一个如此简单的想法。

没有学习方法,你就像一个在踢屁股比赛中只有一条腿的人。根本行不通。

就拿格里来说吧。你觉得如果格里不知道怎么学习新东西,《每日日报》现在会拥有数亿的有价证券吗?我们让他当《每日日报》的头儿时,他对这份报纸简直一窍不通。但他知道如何学习他不知道的东西。当然,这很有用。顺便说一句,我认为这很难教。我认为这在某种程度上要么你有,要么你没有。

提问:为什么有些人无法学习新的想法和行为?

查理·芒格:部分原因是文化,但很多是天生的,是一种怪癖。有些人天生就有良好的判断力倾向,而对另一些人来说,他们的一生就是一系列不断重复的错误。

Charlie Munger: I think any rich nation ought to have a social safety net that expands a little with its wealth. That’s what we’ve been doing throughout my whole lifetime. And I applaud the result. I think the result would have been worse if either party had been in control all by itself for the whole period. In other words, I think the system of checks and balances and elections that our founders gave us actually gave us pretty much the right policies during my lifetime. I hope that that will continue in the future. But I do think politics is getting more full of hatred and irrationality than it used to be in America and I don’t think that’s good. Questions: Many major businesses and high net worth individuals have been leaving California. Can you speak to the causes, the trend, and make some predictions? Charlie Munger: Yes, I think that is rising as we sit here. I just see more and more of the rich people leaving. And, of course, I think it’s vastly stupid for any state to be user-friendly to the rich people. They do way more good than harm. They lose their money fast enough. You don’t need to worry about them. Washington State is actually considering a wealth tax at the state level. I think that would be insanity. I predict that if they do that, a lot of people will leave Washington. Question: With all the work from home with Zoom and other technology, what do you think the future of commercial real estate looks like? Charlie Munger: Real estate has always been a difficult field. And some types of real estate in recent years has been particularly difficult. I think office buildings are now in some trouble and, of course, commercial real estate rented to stores has been in a lot of trouble for a long time. Apartments have come through better. But, I don’t think I’ve got a lot to contribute. I own some apartment houses, so I like that investment, provided you’ve got a perfect management which is hard to get. Question: I was wondering if you could share some thoughts on Haven, particularly why it was ultimately closed. What were the lessons learned? Charlie Munger: I don’t know anything about Haven. Give me a new question. Question: You’ve said several times that the best way to learn about business is to study the multi-decade financial results of great companies. You’ve even said business schools that don’t adopt this method are doing their students a disservice. Would you mind elaborating on how a professor or individual should go about building a curriculum around this approach? What, for example, would you recommend as course materials? Charlie Munger: Well, here’s what I meant. By the way, the Harvard Business School, when it started out way early, they started out with a history of the business. They’d take you through the building of the canals and the building of the railroads and so on and so on. You saw the ebb and flow of industry and the creative destruction of the economic changes and so on. It was a background that helped everybody. And, of course, what I’m saying is that if I were teaching business I would start the way Harvard Business School did a long time ago. I think they stopped because if you taught that course, you’d be stealing the best cases from the individual professors of marketing and so on and so on. And I just think it was academically inconvenient for them. But, of course, you should start out by studying the history of capitalism, how it worked, and why before you start studying business. And they don’t do that very well—I’m talking about the business schools. If you stop to think about it, business success long term is a lot like biology. And in biology, what happens is the individuals all die, and eventually, so do all the species. Capitalism is almost as brutal as that. Think of what’s died in my lifetime. Just think of the things that were once prosperous that are now in failure or gone. Whoever dreamed when I was young that Kodak and General Motors would go bankrupt. You know, it’s just, it’s incredible what’s happened in terms of the destruction. Of course, that history is useful to know. Question: [The questioner] quotes a commencement address you gave in 2007 at USC Law School. I’ll paraphrase here. If a civilization can progress only when it invents the method of invention, you can only progress when you learn the method of learning. I was very lucky. I came to law school having learned the method of learning and nothing has served me better in my long life than continuous learning. [The questioner] would like to know what Charlie’s method of learning is. Charlie Munger: I think I had the right temperament. When people gave me a good idea and I could see it was a good idea, I quickly mastered it and started using it for the rest of my life. You’d say that everybody does that in their education but I don’t think everybody does. It’s such a simple idea. Without the method of learning, you’re like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. It’s just not gonna work. Take Gerry. Do you think the Daily Journal would have hundreds of millions of marketable securities now if Gerry didn’t know how to learn something new? He didn’t know one damn thing about the Daily Journal when we made him head of it. But he knew how to learn what he didn’t know. Of course, that’s a useful thing. And by the way, I think it’s hard to teach. I think it’s just to some extent you either have it or you don’t. Questions: Why are some people incapable of learning new ideas and behaviors? Charlie Munger: It’s partly culture but a lot of it is just born in and it’s a quirk. Some people have a natural trend toward good judgment, and with other people, their life is just a series of mistakes over and over again.

提问者:您在 2005 年对那个关于人类误判标准原因的著名演讲做了大量新内容的修订。现在 16 年过去了,有什么新东西吗?

查理·芒格:没有,我会说……当然,在误判方面确实有一些新素材。但总体而言,大部分知识其实已经存在很久了。

阻碍有益心理学洞察广泛应用的,是这样一个事实:当你把心理学与其他所有知识整合起来时,它才真正变得有用。但心理学系并不教这个,因为学术体系奖励的是那些能产生更多心理学倾向洞察的小实验,而不是把已有的发现与其他知识进行综合。心理学教授对其他知识了解得并不太多,而且他们也没有掌握它的动力。如果你不掌握其他知识,你就无法把它和心理学结合起来。这是一个关于自我学习的很有趣的例子。

当我意识到心理学是必需的,而我自己又缺乏它时,我不仅仅是为了拿个心理学 A 而去学那些小倾向。我学这些倾向,目的是为了能把它与其他知识综合起来。这才是正确的做法。但你让我找一个知道怎么做的心理学系给我看看?这是全世界最无知的行业之一。

提问者:查理,您以倡导从错误中学习而闻名。您能从布伦特伍德的巴里“达顿”书店大楼交易中学到什么?以及未来您将如何应用这些新知识或经验?

查理·芒格:我想我已经学会了避免做土地重新规划的工作。我年轻时,非常成功地重新规划过一些地产。结果我就像瑞普·凡·温克一样;当我试图重操旧业时,发现世界已经变了。我不认为未来你会看到我参与大规模的土地重新规划了。

提问者:对于一个试图待在能力圈内,却发觉技术进步的速度正在迅速缩小这个圈子的人,您有什么建议?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,如果他们带来一种你完全不懂的全新技术,你就处于某种劣势。我的建议是,如果你有一个可以弥补的劣势,就去弥补它。如果它是无法弥补的,那就学着没有它也能过日子。你还能有什么办法?你能修复什么就修复什么,修复不了的,你就忍受它。

提问者:您是当世最年长、最伟大的思想家之一。对于想要锻炼和提升自己同时持有两种对立观点能力的人,有什么建议吗?关于在这种情况下如何产生洞察力,有什么诀窍吗?

Question: You have revised your famous talk on the standard causes of human misjudgment with considerable new material back in 2005. Now 16 years have passed. Is there any new material? Charlie Munger: No, I would say that… of course, there’s some new material in misjudgment. But, but by and large, most of the knowledge has been available for a long time. What prevents the wide use of helpful psychological insight is the fact that psychology gets really useful when you integrate it with all other knowledge. But they don’t teach that in the psychology department because the academic system rewards little experiments that develop more insight into psychological tendencies instead of synthesizing what’s already been discovered with the rest of knowledge. The psychology professors don’t know all that much about the rest of knowledge and they have no incentive to master it. If you don’t have master the rest of the knowledge you can’t synthesize it with psychology. That’s an interesting example of self-learning. When I saw that psychology was necessary and I didn’t have it, I didn’t just learn the little tendencies well enough to get A’s in psychology. I learned those tendencies well enough to synthesize it with the rest of knowledge. And that’s the right way to do it. But show me a psychology department that knows how to do that. It’s one of the most ignorant professions in the world. Question: Charlie, you are known as an advocate for learning from one’s mistakes. What can you learn from the Barry “Dutton’s” bookstore building deal in Brentwood and how would you apply that new knowledge or experience in the future? Charlie Munger: I think I’ve learned to avoid zoning work. When I was young, I rezoned some properties very successfully. And I was like Rip Van Winkle; when I tried to come back to it, I found that the world had changed. And I don’t think you’ll find me engaged in the massive rezonings in the future. Question: What advice would you give to someone who is trying to stay within their circle of competence but finding that the pace of technical technological innovation is rapidly reducing that circle? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, if they bring in a brand new technology you don’t understand at all, you’re at something of a disadvantage. And my advice would be if you have a fixable disadvantage, remove it. And if it’s unfixable, learn to live without it. What else can you do? You fix what you can fit, and what you can’t fix, you endure. Question: You are one of the oldest and greatest thinkers of our time. Any tips for someone who wants to work on and improve their ability to hold two opposing views at the same time? Any tips on how to generate insight in these types of situations?

查理·芒格:嗯,我确实有个建议。在我人生的某些时刻,我给自己定了一个我觉得很有帮助的标准:我认为只有当我能够比反对者更好地陈述反对我结论的论点时,我才真正有资格讨论这个话题。如果你一直这么做;如果你一直在寻找反证,把自己放在火上烤,那是一种帮助去除无知的好方法。

实际情况是,每个人类都倾向于过分相信那些自己辛苦发现的东西,或者自己已经公开宣称相信的东西。换句话说,当我们大声喊出自己的知识时,我们其实是在把它敲实,而不是在扩展它。我一直意识到这一点,所以我接受了这些该死的股东大会。我一直挺安静的。

现场提问:尤金·阿贝格(Eugene Abegg)似乎是上世纪最优秀的银行家之一,他实现了极低的贷款损失率,并且长期资产收益率约为 2%。我认为今天的银行家可以从尤金身上学到很多,但很少有人知道他。尤金是如何在长期内实现令人难以置信的低贷款损失,而其他那么多银行家却惨败?

查理·芒格:嗯,这问题很简单。他是个非常聪明的人。他住在一个特定的城镇。他认识所有人,知道所有事。他有极好的判断力。他极其在乎不做坏贷款或招致愚蠢的开支。所以,如果你希望永远不会遇到麻烦,他就是个完美的银行家。

当然,认识镇上的每一个人确实大有帮助。如果我待在我长大的奥马哈,进入银行业,我也会成为一个相当出色的银行家。因为即使是个孩子,我对奥马哈谁是靠谱的、谁不靠谱也已经知道不少。尤金在他的社区就是这样的。

此外,他经历过“大萧条”。他曾是一家银行的管理者(receiver)。当然,这让他对愚蠢的贷款非常警惕。而且,他当然也讨厌成本。他就是一个非常老派的、稳健的思考者。

当然,这套方法现在仍然管用。但对任何人来说都很难。他真的知道在一个伊利诺伊州的小镇上,要避免信用损失该做所有那些事情。

现场提问:查理,你长期以来一直是新加坡和李光耀的崇拜者。你曾说过,去研究李光耀的生平和事业,你会大吃一惊。我很好奇,你是如何开始对新加坡和李光耀产生兴趣的?你见过李光耀本人吗?如果全世界只能从新加坡学到一件事,那会是什么?

查理·芒格:嗯,李光耀作为国家建设者,有着最辉煌的纪录。如果你愿意把小国家也算进来,他可能拥有世界历史上最好的纪录。他接手了一个疟疾横行的沼泽,没有军队,什么都没有。然后,很快,他就把它变成了一个光彩夺目、繁荣昌盛的地方。

他做这件事的方法非常简单。他反复念叨的口头禅很简单。他说:弄清楚什么管用,然后去做。现在,听起来好像谁都知道这有道理。但你知道,大多数人不这么做。他们不会那么努力地去弄清楚什么管用、什么不管用。他们也不会像他那样坚持不懈地一直做下去。

他是个非常聪明的人,有很多好主意。他真真切切地接手了一个疟疾横行的沼泽,并在自己的有生之年把它变成了现代新加坡。这绝对令人难以置信。他是一党制,但选民随时可以让他下台。他不是独裁者。他实在太出色了。他对腐败深恶痛绝,这是个非常好的主意。他几乎碰过的每件事,没有不改进的。

当我看到现代新加坡的医疗体系时,它的成本只有美国体系的 20%。当然,它的运作方式比我们的医疗系统好得多。这完全归功于李光耀的实践才能。他一次又一次地选择正确的体系。

在新加坡,你一出生就有一个储蓄账户。如果你不花这笔钱,你和你的继承人最终可以花它。换句话说,这是你自己的钱。所以,在某种程度上,每个在新加坡购买医疗服务的人都是在为自己付钱。当然,人们花自己的钱时行为会更理智。

他一次又一次地做类似的事情。这认可了现实,并且比其他人做的有效得多。像李光耀这样的人,历史上没有几个。所以,我当然钦佩他。我家里有李光耀的半身像。我非常钦佩他。

现场提问:目前,投资界持续传播的最大谎言是什么?

查理·芒格:嗯,零佣金交易是一个很好的候选,如果你想强调它令人作呕的一面的话。零佣金交易不是免费的。

现场提问:您认为最好是在企业更早期、行业规模较小时投资它们的普通股,还是等到它们成为更成熟行业的明确赢家之后再投?

查理·芒格:我认为沃伦和我更擅长购买成熟行业的公司,而不是像红杉资本(Sequoia)那样支持初创企业。全世界最好的风险投资机构可能当属红杉资本,他们非常擅长早期阶段投资。我可不想在红杉的领域里和他们竞争。我觉得他们会把我打得团团转。

Charlie Munger: Well, I do have a tip. At times in my life, I have put myself to a standard that I think has helped me: I think I’m not really equipped to comment on this subject until I can state the arguments against my conclusion better than the people on the other side. If you do that all the time; if you’re looking for disconfirming evidence and putting yourself on a grill, that’s a good way to help remove ignorance. What happens is that every human being tends to believe way more than he should in what he’s worked hard to find out or where he’s announced publicly that he already believes. In other words, when we shout our knowledge out, we’re really pounding it out. We’re not enlarging it. And, I was always aware of that and so I’ve accepted these damned annual meetings. I’ve been pretty quiet. Question: Eugene Abegg seems like he was one of the best bankers of the last century, achieving both extremely low loan loss rates and earning around 2% on assets over a long time period. I think the bankers of today could learn a lot from Eugene, but little is known of him. How did Eugene achieve incredibly low loan losses over the long term while so many other bankers have failed miserably? Charlie Munger: Well that’s an easy one. He was a very smart man. He lived in a particular town. He knew everybody and everything. He had excellent judgment. He cared terribly about not making bad loans or incurring dumb expenses. So he was just a perfect banker if you wanted never to have any trouble. Of course, it really helped to know everybody in town. If I had stayed in Omaha, where I was raised, and gotten into the banking business, I would have been a hell of a good banker. Because even as a boy, I knew a lot about who was sound who wasn’t sound in Ohama. And that’s the way Eugene was in his community. Furthermore, he’d gone through the Great Depression. He’d been a receiver for a bank. Of course, that made him very leery of dumb loans. And, of course, he hated costs. He was just a very old-fashioned sound thinker. Of course, that will still work. But it’s hard for anybody. He really knew everything you had to do to avoid credit losses in a small town in Illinois. Question: Charlie, you have been a long-time admirer of Singapore and Lee Kuan Yew. You once said to study the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew. You are going to be flabbergasted. I would be curious to know how you started your interest in Singapore and Lee Kuan Yew. Have you met Lee Kuan Yew in person? And if there is one thing the world could learn from Singapore, what would that be? Charlie Munger: Well, Lee Kuan Yew had the best record as a nation builder. If you’re willing to count small nations in the group, he had probably the best record that ever existed in the history of the world. He took over a malarial swamp with no army, no nothing. And, pretty soon, he turned that into this gloriously prosperous place. His method for doing it was so simple. The mantra he said over and over again is very simple. He said, figure out what works and do it. Now, it sounds like anybody would know that made sense. But you know, most people don’t do that. They don’t work that hard at figuring out what works and what doesn’t. And they don’t just keep everlastingly at it the way he did. He was a very smart man and he had a lot of good ideas. He absolutely took over a malarial swamp and turned it into modern Singapore—in his own lifetime. It was absolutely incredible. He was a one party system but he could always be removed by the electorate. He was not a dictator. And he was just so good. He was death on corruption which was a very good idea. There’s hardly anything he touched he didn’t improve. When I look at the modern Singapore health system, it costs 20% of what the American system costs. And, of course, it works way better than our medical system. That’s entirely due to the practical talent of Lee Kuan Yew. Just time after time, he would choose the right system. In Singapore, you get a savings account the day you’re born. If you don’t spend the money, you and your heirs get to spend it eventually. In other words, it’s your money. So, to some extent, everybody buying medical services in Singapore is paying for it themselves. Of course, people behave more sensibly when they’re spending their own money. Just time after time he would do something like that. That recognized reality and worked way better than what other people were doing. There aren’t that many people like Lee Kuan Yew that have ever lived. So, of course, I admire him. I have a bust of Lee Kuan Yew in my house. I admire him that much. Question: What is the biggest lie currently being perpetuated by the investment complex? Charlie Munger: Well, commission-free trading is a very good candidate for that if you want to emphasize disgusting-wise. Commission-free trading is not free. Question: Do you think it’s best to invest in the common stocks of businesses early or while they are more nascent and the industry is smaller, or wait until they are the clear winner of a more mature industry? Charlie Munger: I think Warren and I are better at buying mature industries than we are at backing startups like Sequoia. The best venture capital operation probably in the whole world is Sequoia’s and they are very good at this early stage investing. I would hate to compete with Sequoia in their field. I think they’d run rings around me.

所以我认为,对某些人来说,早期投资是最好的选择;而对另一些人来说,我一生所做的才是最佳路径。

提问:去年,几乎所有电商、互联网及互联网相关股票都上涨了 100% 以上。您最近曾说,红杉资本是有史以来最伟大的投资公司。您认为数字经济是否已经到了一个转折点,以至于这次真的不一样,那些传统的估值方法对这些公司已经失效了?还是说,现在这个环境让您想起了 1999 年?您如何调和为一个增长但尚未盈利的企业支付 50 到 60 倍营收的价格,与更传统的价值投资概念——安全边际——之间的矛盾?

查理·芒格:嗯,总的来说,我不会试图与红杉资本竞争。你可以说,我和李录一起买入比亚迪时,算是接近了红杉的水平。那不是一个初创公司,但它规模太小、交易太清淡,以至于我们实际上是在公开市场做了一笔风险投资型的投资。

除了那一次例外,我一直远离红杉的业务领域,因为他们在那些方面比我强太多了,而我不知道该用他们的方式去操作。

提问:在各种类型的护城河和竞争优势中,您认为未来哪些类型会最为重要?以及,您能否想象哪些竞争优势的组合会创造出新的护城河类型?

查理·芒格:这个问题对我来说太泛了。我只能说一点:很多看似坚不可摧的护城河,人们都找到了突破的方法。想想当年那些实际上相当于美国政府一部分的垄断报纸吧。它们现在几乎都在消亡——每一家都差不多。许多老护城河正在消失,当然,人们也在不断创造新的护城河。这就是资本主义的本质。它就像生物学中的进化。

新物种被创造出来,旧物种在消亡。当然,在这样的领域里很难应对。但没有哪条规则说,在智力方面生活就必须容易。它当然会很困难。

提问:我很喜欢您在加州理工学院的访谈,希望您能详细阐述一下,并更多地分享您关于伟大投资者和伟大棋手的观点。他们有何相似或不同之处?您看过 Netflix 上的电视剧《女王的棋局》吗?

查理·芒格:我看过一两集《女王的棋局》。

我觉得国际象棋的有趣之处在于,从某种程度上说,除非你天生有某种天赋,否则你学不会它。而且,即使你有天赋,如果不从很小就开始下棋并获得大量经验,你也不可能下得好。所以,这是一个非常有趣的竞争领域。

So, I think for some folks, early-stage investing is best, and for other folks, what I’ve done in my life is best. Question: Last year, almost every ecommerce, internet, and internet adjacent stock was up 100 plus percent. You’ve said recently that Sequoia is the greatest investment firm ever. Do you think that digital economy has reached a tipping point such that this time is different and that conventional valuation measures for these types of companies are dead, or does this environment remind you of 1999? How do you reconcile the idea of paying 50 or 60 times revenue for a growing but unprofitable business with the more traditional value investing concept of a margin of safety? Charlie Munger: Well, generally speaking, I don’t try and compete with Sequoia. You can argue that I got close to Sequoia when with Li Lu we bought into BYD. That was not a startup, but it was so small and thinly traded that we were buying into a venture capital type investment but in the public market. With that one exception, I’ve stayed out of Sequoia’s business because they’re so much better at it than I would be and I don’t know how to do it the way they do it. Question: Of the various types of moats and competitive advantages, which types do you think will be most important in the years ahead, and what combinations of competitive advantages can you imagine will create any new types of moats? Charlie Munger: That’s too hard in general a question for me. The one thing I will say is that a lot of the moats that looked impassable, people found a way to displace. Think of all the monopoly newspapers that used to be, in effect, part of the government of the United States. And they’re all dying—every damn one of them almost. A lot of the old moats are going away, and, of course, people are creating new moats all the time. That’s the nature of capitalism. It’s like evolution in biology. New species are created and old species are dying. Of course, it’s hard to negotiate in such a field. But there’s no rule that life has to be easy on the mental side. Of course, it’s going to be difficult. Question: I enjoyed your Caltech interview and wanted you to elaborate and provide more insights on your point of great investors and great chess players. How are they similar or different? Have you seen the television show Queen’s Gambit on Netflix? Charlie Munger: I have seen an episode or two of the Queen’s Gambit. What I think is interesting about chess is, to some extent, you can’t learn it unless you have a certain natural gift. And even if you have a natural gift, you can’t be good at it unless you start playing at a very young age and get huge experience. So, it’s a very interesting competitive field.

我认为人们有种理论,觉得任何聪明勤奋的人都能成为伟大的投资者。我认为任何一个聪明人都可以成为相当不错的投资者,并且避开某些明显的陷阱。但我并不认为每个人都能成为伟大的投资者或伟大的棋手。

我认识一个人,亨利·辛格尔顿,他不是国际象棋冠军。但他可以不看棋盘,以接近大师级的水平下盲棋。可亨利是个天才。没多少人能做到这一点。如果你做不到,你就不可能赢得世界国际象棋大赛的冠军,也不可能像亨利·辛格尔顿在商业上那样成功。

我认为有些事情非常困难,而且总的来说,雇佣投资管理团队——雇佣一大群人来做出投资结论——是个错误。你最好像李路合伙公司那样,把决策权集中在一个人身上,然后选对这个人。

我不认为普通人能轻易成为伟大的投资者。

提问者:你发现了电气化带来的机会并投资了比亚迪。你怎么看待交通领域氢能源的机会,它与电气化机会相比如何,特别是考虑到卡车与汽车的区别?未来我们的加油站或卡车服务站会变少吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我希望卡车服务站不会变少,因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦深度参与卡车服务站业务。不过,我当然认为未来各种交通形式都会出现更多自动化。

我对氢能源没有什么特别深刻的见解。但我确实认为,建立一整套销售氢气的系统很困难。另一方面,洛杉矶的公交车使用的是天然气,所有公交车都是如此。这为洛杉矶节省了一大笔钱,因为天然气比汽油便宜得多。我亲眼目睹了整条公交系统从汽油或柴油转向天然气的过程,所以这显然不是不可能,但你必须为它建立一套全新的供应系统。

我甚至不知道处理氢气比处理同样危险的汽油要困难多少——或者危险多少——你已经触及我能力圈的极限了。我帮不了你。

提问者:如果(《每日日报》)管理层突然获得一笔意外之财,他们会怎么处理?在当前低利率、低通胀的环境下,他们如何看待现有的投资机会?

查理·芒格:嗯,在当前环境下,当这些股票价格如此之高,某些类型的房地产也严重泡沫化时,处理累积的资金并不容易。所以非常困难。我能说的就是,我们会尽最大努力。

I think people have the theory that any intelligent hardworking person can get to be a great investor. I think any intelligent person can get to be pretty good as an investor and avoid certain obvious traps. But I don’t think everybody can be a great investor or a great chess player. I knew a man once, Henry Singleton, who was not a chess champion. But he could play chess blindfolded at just below the Grandmaster level. But Henry was a genius. And there aren’t many people that can do that. And if you can’t do that, you’re not gonna win the great chess championships of the world and you’re not gonna do as well in business as Henry Singleton did. I think some of these things are very difficult and I think, by and large, it’s a mistake to hire investment management—to hire armies of people to make conclusions. You’re better off concentrating your decision power on one person the way the Li Lu partnership does and then choose the right person. I don’t think it’s easy for ordinary people to become great investors. Question: You identified the opportunity in electrification and invested in BYD. How do you think about the hydrogen opportunity for transportation and how does it compare to the electric opportunity, specifically thinking about trucks versus cars. Will we have fewer gas stations or truck stops in the future? Charlie Munger: Well, I hope we don’t have fewer truck stocks because Berkshire Hathaway is deeply involved in truck stops. But, of course, I think there will be more automation in transportation of all kinds in the future. I don’t think I’ve got any great insight about hydrogen. But I do think having a whole system to sell hydrogen is difficult. On the other hand, the buses in Los Angeles work on natural gas. All the buses. And it has saved Los Angeles a fortune because gas is so much cheaper than gasoline. I’ve seen the whole bus system shift from gasoline or diesel to gas and so it obviously isn’t impossible, but you’d have to create a whole new system of supply for it. I don’t even know how much more difficult—or how much more dangerous—it would be to deal with hydrogen than it is to deal with gasoline which is also a dangerous substance. You’ve reached the limit of my circle of competence. I can’t help you. Question: What would management [of Daily Journal] do with a sudden windfall of profits? How would they think about current opportunities with low rates and low inflation? Charlie Munger: Well, it’s not easy to handle accumulated money in the current environment when these stocks are so high and partials of real estate of certain kinds are also very inflated. So it’s very difficult. And all I can say is that we’ll do the best we can.

当情况变得困难时,我不认为有任何自动解决困难的办法。我的想法是,当困难来临时,我预料到它也会找上我。

问:在您看来,管理层是否有道德上的责任,让公司的股价尽可能地接近其公允价值?

查理·芒格:我不认为你可以把这当作一种道德责任。因为如果你这么要求,那我就是个道德上的麻风病人。《每日日报》的股价远高于我自己买新股时愿意支付的价格。所以,我不认为确保股价在什么位置是管理层的责任。

我认为,管理层应该始终实事求是,而不是积极地炒作自家股票。

问:1999 年,也就是《每日日报》收购 Sustain Technologies 的那一年,传统业务部门雇用了 355 名全职员工和 61 名兼职员工。到了 2010 年,这个数字下降到 165 名全职员工和 15 名兼职员工。今年的年报显示,传统业务有 97 名全职员工。随着员工人数的减少,出版物的质量是否受到了影响?还是说,数字革命为这些业务带来了巨大的效率提升?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,这些岗位是被裁减了。他们不得不这么做,因为传统报纸业务正在萎缩。格里(Gerry)是个头脑清醒的人,你知道,他承担了相当令人不快的裁员工作,而且处理得恰到好处,没有来打扰我或里克。这恰恰表明我们当初把他放在那个位置是多么明智。

质量下降了吗?这个嘛,我不认为公布法律公告广告的质量下降了。但我很难想象,当员工人数减少时,编辑质量还能大幅提升。我猜我们在编辑质量方面是受到了一些影响。格里,你对此有什么要说的吗?

杰拉德·萨尔兹曼:这里有好几个因素在起作用。你提到了技术——这一点非常、非常重要。我们的许多系统都在云端。只有法律广告系统是例外,我们必须自己搭建,因为其他任何公司都没有我们那么大的业务量。我们的编辑系统和广告系统都在云端。会计系统也在云端。

报纸行业的衰落带来的冲击非常显著。分类广告收入大幅下降。就拿展示广告来说,现在,我们和一家与我们合作了 25 年的、非常友好的公司合作,他们现在在帮我们销售广告。另外,幸运的是,在疫情之前我们就退出了会议类活动,所以我们没有受到没有会议、没人参加的困扰。

When it gets difficult, I don’t think there’s any automatic fix for difficulty. I think when difficulty comes, I expect to have my share. Question: Does management, in your opinion, have a moral responsibility to have their shares trade as close to fair value as possible? Charlie Munger: I don’t think you can make that a moral responsibility. Because if you do that, I’m a moral leper. The daily journal stock sells way above the price I would pay if I was buying new stock. So, no I don’t think it’s the responsibility of management to assure where the stock sells. I think management should tell it like it is at all times and not be a big promoter of its own stock. Question: In 1999, the year the Daily Journal bought Sustain Technologies, the traditional business employed 355 full-time employees and 61 part-time employees. In 2010, that was down to 165 full-time employees and 15 part-time employees. This year’s annual report suggests that the traditional business has 97 full-time employees. Has the quality of the publication suffered as the employment levels have decreased? Or, has the digital revolution caused enormous productivity improvements in those businesses? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, the places downsized. They had to because the traditional business newspaper business is shrinking. Gerry, being a sound thinker, you know, did the very unpleasant work of shrinking it appropriately without bothering me or Rick. It showsed how wise we were to put him there in the first place. Has the quality gone down? Well, I don’t think the quality of publishing public notice advertising has gone down. But, I hardly think the editorial quality could go way up when employees were going down. My guess is we have suffered some editorial quality. Gerry, you have a comment on that? Gerald Salzman: There are a number of factors that come into play here. And you mentioned technology—that’s very, very important. Many of our systems are in the cloud. All except for the legal advertising system which we had to build because nobody else has the volume that we have. Our editorial system and our advertising system are all in the cloud. Accounting is also in the cloud. The disruption from the decline in newspapers has had a significant impact. Classified advertising is down significantly. In display advertising, for example, we now utilize a very friendly company that worked with us for 25 years and now they are helping us sell advertising. Also, fortunately before the pandemic, we got out of the conference-type events and we were not subjected to the problems of no conferences nobody to attend.

当你审视加州房地产和租赁价格的现状时,你会发现我们减少了《日报科技》和《每日加州日报》的办公室数量。在旧金山地区,由于互联网公司纷纷争抢编辑类人才,招聘记者变得非常困难。

所有这些因素都在起作用。如果再往前追溯,我们停办了《加州律师》杂志,曾经在西雅图和丹佛各办过一份报纸。大约在同一时期,我们在凤凰城收购了一家报纸,结果运营得极为成功。想要打入法律广告系统非常困难,而这个系统支撑着众多报纸,不止在加州,在其他地方也是如此。

查理·芒格:一家正在萎缩的企业很难经营。杰瑞(注:指基拉·萨利姆)做得极为出色。这是完全必要的。

提问者:您认为市场正在经历类似于 1999 年的长期价值低迷,还是认为科技已永久改变了公司的估值方式?

查理·芒格:我不知道这种改变会持续多久,但它的确带来了变化。当然,在一个无法预测许多事情的复杂系统中,很难知道未来会怎样。通常,人们会保留财务储备,这样在困难来临时就有一些选择,然后像杰瑞那样根据情况需要收缩或扩张。

《每日加州日报》的一个有趣之处在于,我们在法拍潮中赚了那么多钱。所以我们就像在一个瘟疫年份突然暴富的殡葬业者。这是一种有趣的赚钱方式。之所以能这样,是因为杰瑞和我在全州各地收购这些小报纸,只是为了确保能在州内任何有需求的地方提供公告广告服务。

事实证明,这是一个绝妙的主意,也是我们赚到这么多钱的原因之一。因此,股东们很幸运能有杰瑞这样的人在这里,他能学会自己不知道的东西并解决问题。

提问者:您一生中花了很多时间将智慧奉献给学校与医院。对于这些机构在未来几十年如何管理它们的捐赠基金,您有什么建议?

查理·芒格:嗯,有一家慈善机构,我在其中长期发挥着一定影响,它的董事会里到处都是各个财富管理分支的顶尖金融家。而这家机构的捐赠账户里只有两项资产:一项是李录中国基金的大笔权益(这是一家有限合伙企业),另一项是先锋集团的指数基金。由于持有这两项资产,我们的成本比任何人都低,赚的钱也几乎比任何人都多。所以你现在知道我在慈善机构里做些什么了。

顺便说一句,这在美国并不是常态。财富管理行业正面临一场危机。他们真的需要世界保持现状。但这对客户来说不一定正确。

提问者:据估计,盖茨基金会已经挽救了超过 1 亿人的生命。巴菲特先生对基金会的捐赠显然帮助拯救了数百万人的生命。伯克希尔的经理们是否意识到,通过他们在伯克希尔创造商业成功的努力,他们参与了拯救数百万生命的事业?

查理·芒格:我确信有些人意识到了,但总的来说,这并非沃伦出名的地方。他完全不在意自己的慈善捐赠得不到赞誉。

提问者:石油和天然气行业会成为新的报业吗?

查理·芒格:我不这么认为。我认为石油和天然气行业会存在很长很长一段时间。事实上,即使我们停止在交通运输中使用许多碳氢化合物,它也会存在很久很久。碳氢化合物还需要作为化工原料。我不认为碳氢化合物会消失。我不是说石油和天然气会是一门好生意,但我不认为它会消失。我不认为它像报业那样。

提问者:您认为全球变暖是对人类的生存威胁吗?如果是,您认为社会应如何应对,特别是考虑到贫穷国家需要更多廉价能源来减少贫困?

查理·芒格:嗯,当然,当贫穷国家需要烧煤来维持生存等等的时候,解决全球变暖问题非常困难。所以,这是一个严重的问题。另一方面,我们还有相当多的时间去应对。一个富裕的文明,如果我们绝对必须去做的话,是负担得起这个代价的。

如果海平面上升 60 英尺(这可能在 100 年左右发生),我们将不得不建造巨大的防海屏障。佛罗里达州将面临一个真正严重的问题。另一方面,这也是可以应对的。比尔·盖茨最近就这个话题写了一本书,他在书中总结说代价会很昂贵,但可以解决。他的结论是人类应该迎难而上。我挺欣赏比尔处理这些非常棘手问题的方式。我倾向于回避那些我不擅长的领域,而我不擅长很多不同的问题。

When you look at what’s happened in California [in terms of] the price of real estate and rentals, we’ve reduced the number of offices we have both for Journal Technology and for the Daily Journal. It’s very difficult to hire reporters in the San Francisco area with all the demands coming from the internet companies wanting to have an editorial product. All those factors come into play and if you go back a little further, we eliminated California Lawyer magazine and we had one time a newspaper in Seattle and one in Denver. At about the same time, we bought a newspaper in Phoenix and that worked out extremely well. It’s difficult to break into the legal advertising system which supports so many newspapers, not only in California but elsewhere. Charlie Munger: It’s very hard to have a shrinking business. Gerry has done magnificently well. It was totally required. Question: Do you believe the market is going through a long-term value slump similar to 1999, or do you believe technology has caused a permanent change in how companies should be valued? Charlie Munger: I don’t know how permanent it’s going to be but it certainly caused a change. Of course, it’s hard to know what the future holds when in a complex system where you can’t predict a lot of things. Generally, what people do is they have financial reserves so they have some options if trouble comes, and they adapt the way Gerry has to require downsizings or require upsizings. One of the interesting things about the Daily Journal is that we made all that money in the foreclosure boom. So we were like an undertaker who suddenly got prosperous in a plague year. It’s a funny way to make money. That happened because Gerry and I bought these little newspapers all over the state just as a precaution to make sure we could serve public notice advertising wherever it arose in the state. That turned out to be a wonderful idea and that’s one of the reasons we made all this money. So, the shareholders have been lucky to have somebody like Gerry here who could learn what he didn’t know and fix it. Question: You’ve spent much of your life contributing your wisdom to schools and hospitals. How would you advise these institutions to manage their endowments over the coming decades? Charlie Munger: Well, the one charitable institution where I have had some influence for a very long time has a whole bunch of hotshot financiers in every branch of wealth management there is on the board. And that institution has two assets in its endowment account. One is a big interest in Li Lu’s China fund, which is a limited partnership, and the other is a Vanguard index fund. As a result of holding those two positions, we have a lower cost than anybody else and we make more money than practically everybody else. So you now know what I do in charitable institutions. By the way, that’s not the normal outcome in America. The wealth management industry has a crisis on its hands. They really need the world to stay the way it is. And that isn’t necessarily right for its customers. Question: It is estimated that the Gates Foundation has saved well over 100 million lives. Buffett’s donations to the foundation have obviously helped to save many millions. Are Berkshire’s managers aware that through their efforts to create business success at Berkshire that they have been involved in saving millions of lives? Charlie Munger: I’m sure some are, but, by and large, that’s not what Warren is known for. He doesn’t mind at all not getting credit for his charitable donations. Question: Is the oil and gas industry the new newspapers? Charlie Munger: I don’t think so. I think the oil and gas industry will be here for a long, long time. As a matter of fact, it will be here for a long, long time if we stop using many hydrocarbons in transportation. The hydrocarbons are also needed as chemical feedstocks. I don’t think that hydrocarbons are going. I’m not saying that oil and gas is going to be a wonderful business but I don’t think it’s going away. I don’t think it’s like the newspaper business. Question: Do you believe global warming is an existential threat to humankind? If so, how do you think society should address it, especially because poor countries require much more cheap energy to reduce poverty? Charlie Munger: Well, of course, it’s very hard to fix the global warming problem when the poorer countries need to burn coal to stay alive and so on. So, it’s a serious problem. On the other hand, we have a fair amount of time to do it. A rich civilization can afford to do it if we absolutely have to. If the seas were to rise 60 feet, which could happen in another 100 years or so, we’d have to build enormous barriers to sea entry. Florida would have a really serious problem. On the other hand, it could be handled. Bill Gates has written a book on this subject recently in which he concludes that it would be expensive but it could be handled. And his conclusion is that mankind should just step up to it and do it. I kind of admire the way Bill takes on these very hard problems. I tend to avoid the ones which I’m not good at and I’m not good at a lot of different problems.

问题:您现在在读什么书?有什么可以推荐的?

查理·芒格:我想我还是跳过这个问题吧。

问题:本杰明·富兰克林曾说过:如果让我选择,我不会反对从头再过一遍同样的生活,只是希望像作者出第二版那样,有机会修正第一版中的一些错误。如果今天您能重新开始,在生活和投资上,您会做哪些不同的事情?

查理·芒格:本杰明·富兰克林是史上最睿智的人之一。然而他在一生中也犯过很多错误。当然,如果他有重来一次的机会,他会避免那些错误。我们都会这么说。

他谈论这件事的方式非常和蔼可亲。但是,当然,如果我们有机会重来一次,我们会做得更好。但能有机会重来一次的人数为零。所以这是一个非常理论化的讨论。

我一直喜欢一句德国古谚:人老得太快,聪明得太晚。无论你是本杰明·富兰克林还是乔·傻瓜蛋,这句话都成立。

我们都活在这个问题里。我们也都对自己相当宽容,这大概是一件好事。

我不会太大幅度地改变我的人生。我认为,大多数在生活中过得还算不错的人,大致都像命中注定那样幸福。他们不会因为更富有就幸福很多,也不会因为更贫穷就痛苦很多。我认为大多数人天生就有一个幸福设定点。这个幸福设定点对他们的幸福程度和生活结果的影响,远大于其他因素。

问题:您在《穷查理宝典》中关于如何选择好配偶的建议非常简短。您说过,最好的方法就是让自己配得上一个好配偶,因为好配偶的定义就是不疯。这话没错,也说得通。不过,您能否说得更具体些?在您过去的采访中,您用李光耀的例子说明,他在择偶时判断力很好,选择了有头脑的人而非某些外在特质。您能根据个人观察或通过间接阅读,再举一些好和坏的例子吗?

查理·芒格:嗯,我无法超越李光耀的例子。在他早年求学时,他是学校的第二名。他就是那么聪明。有一个比他年长一岁的女生,是学校的第一名。于是他就娶了她。当然,他的儿子,一个聪明人,现在是新加坡总理。

在择偶上稍微有些智慧是非常可取的。你几乎想不出还有什么决定比嫁给谁对人生幸福更重要。

Question: What books are you currently reading and what can you reccomend? Charlie Munger: I think I’ll skip that one. Question: Ben Franklin said: Were it offered to my choice, I should have no objection to a repetition of the same life from its beginning, only asking the advantages authors have in a second edition, to correct some faults of the first. If you were offered a fresh start today, what would you do differently in life and in investing? Charlie Munger: Ben Franklin was one of the wisest men who ever lived. And yet he made a lot of mistakes in the course of living his life. Of course, if he had a chance to do it over again, he would avoid those mistakes. We would all say that. He was very amiable the way he talked about it. But, of course, if we got a chance to do it again, we would do it better. The number of people who ever got a chance to do it again is zero. So it’s a very theoretical discussion. There’s an old German proverb I’ve always liked. It says that man is too soon old and too late smart. That’s true whether you’re Benjamin Franklin or Joe klutz. We all live with that problem. We’re all pretty forgiving of ourselves too which is probably a good thing. I wouldn’t change my life all that well. I think most people who are assuming tolerable success in life are about as happy as they were ordained to be. They wouldn’t be a lot happier if they were richer or a lot less happy if they’d been poor. I think most people are born with a happystat. That happystat has more to do with their happiness and their outcomes in life. Question: Your advice given on choosing a good spouse in Poor Charlie’s Almanac is terse. You have said that the single best way is to deserve a good spouse because a good spouse is by definition not nuts. That is true and makes sense. However, could you be more specific? You used examples of Lee Kuan Yew’s good judgment in choosing someone with brains over certain physical attributes in your past interview. Could you give more examples both good and bad ones from your personal observations or through vicarious readings? Charlie Munger: Well, I can’t top Lee Kuan Yew’s example. In his early education, he was the second-ranked student in the school. He was that smart. And there was one woman who was a year older than he was who was the first-ranked student in the school. So he married her. Of course, his son, who is a bright man, is now Prime Minister of Singapore. A little wisdom in spouse selection is very desirable. You can hardly think of a decision that matters more to human felicity than who you marry.

问题:鉴于您对物理学的大量捐赠,您最喜欢将物理学应用于社会问题以及投资领域的方式是什么?

查理·芒格:我认为自己在解决投资问题时并没有用到太多物理学,但它偶尔确实能帮到我。

有时候,某个该死的傻瓜会提出一些违背物理定律的建议,我一旦意识到那可怜的家伙一点都不懂物理,就会立刻停止思考。

问题:在投资过程中,分析公司文化有多重要?

查理·芒格:非常重要——像 Costco 这样的公司,其成功的一部分原因就在于此。令人惊叹的是,一家几十年才起步的小公司,竟然能像 Costco 那样迅速变得如此庞大。部分原因就在于文化。他们建立了一种对成本、质量、效率和诚信近乎狂热的强大文化。所有好的东西都是如此。当然,这一切都奏效了。文化非常重要。

问题:您经常主张从别人的重大灾难和愚蠢行为中学习。在《每日邮报》,有什么错误是我们都能从中学习的?

查理·芒格:格里,我们犯过的最大错误是什么?

杰拉尔德·萨尔兹曼:嗯,我们不去想错误。我们接受现状,并努力去解决它。

查理·芒格:我想不出……在试图进入法院软件业务的过程中,我们为一些小公司付出了高昂的价格。但我不认为那最终会成为一个错误。天知道这很困难,但我认为这不是一个错误。

我不认为我们犯过很多可怕的错误。看看这些房地产。我们低价买下了所有这些建筑。它们所在的地段价值越来越高。

我不认为我们当时买下《每日邮报》,并支付那样的价格是一个错误。我们花了 250 万美元买下它。之后不久,我们就获得了 250 万美元的股息。你所看到的一切都是利润。

我认为到目前为止我们应对得相当不错。

问题:如果您有机会对《穷查理宝典》进行补充或修订,您会做什么?

查理·芒格:我没有任何精彩的新想法。就这些想法对我生活的帮助程度而言,我想我已经基本走完了这条路。我不认为自己还可能有什么能创造奇迹的新想法。但是,我发现老办法依然管用。

近年来,我一直在努力创建一种更好的学生宿舍。我发现,通过努力做这件事,尽管我年纪大了,还是能做出一些改进。所以,我对自己还能发挥作用感到有点欣慰。我没想移山填海。

问题:您是否相信任何心理人格测试,比如迈尔斯-布里格斯性格类型指标,在选择合适伴侣时有什么帮助?考虑到选择配偶可能是人生中最重要的决定。您能详细谈谈这个话题吗?您会考虑就这个特定话题发表演讲吗?为了造福那些单身人士,或许包括您的一些孙辈和曾孙辈。

查理·芒格:嗯,你知道,我曾经有过一段失败的婚姻,所以我不认为自己处于一个完美位置来给年轻人提供婚姻建议。不,我认为我没什么可贡献的。

问题:您做了些什么能活得这么久?您能分享长寿、健康、幸福生活的秘诀吗?

查理·芒格:我认为我能活着是因为幸运的基因突变。我不认为我能教你们如何事后自己去获得一个新的突变。格里也活了很久,我想我们俩都很幸运。不,我没有任何秘诀。我想,即使我过着不同的生活,也会活得很久。

幸福的生活非常简单。

幸福生活的第一条规则是低期望。这是你很容易做到的事。如果你有不切实际的期望,你一辈子都会很痛苦。我擅长保持低期望,这帮助了我。

此外,当你遭遇挫折时,如果你只是咽下苦果去应对,而不是焦虑地将自己陷入无尽的痛苦,这也会有所帮助。

有一些行为准则。罗丝·布拉姆金对伯克希尔的文化产生了相当大的影响。她用大约 500 美元大萧条时期的资金创建了一家企业,后来发展成了一家巨大的公司。你知道她的座右铭是什么吗?永远说实话,永远不要对任何人撒任何谎。

这些都是很好的规则,而且非常简单。

生活中很多好规则都是这样。它们非常简单。第一次就做对。这是一个非常好的规则。

Question: Given all of your donations to physics, what is your favorite way of applying physics to society’s problems and also to investing? Charlie Munger: I don’t think I use much physics in solving my investment problems but it occasionally helps me. Occasionally, some damned fool will suggest something that violates the laws of physics and I always turn off my mind the minute I realize the poor bastard doesn’t know any physics. Question: How important is the analysis of company culture in the investment process? Charlie Munger: It’s quite important—part of the success of a company like Costco. It’s been amazing that one little company starting up not that many decades ago could become as big as Costco did as fast as Costco did. Part of the reason for that was cultural. They have created a strong culture of fanaticism about cost, quality, efficiency, and honor. All the good things. And, of course, it’s all worked. Culture is very important. Question: You often advocate for learning from other people’s big calamities and stupidities. What would be a mistake at the Daily Journal which we can all learn from? Charlie Munger: Gerry, what’s the biggest mistake we’ve made? Gerald Salzman: Well, we don’t think about mistakes. We take the situation as it is and try to solve it. Charlie Munger: I can’t think of a… We paid high prices for some little companies in the course of trying to enter the court software business. But I don’t think that’s going to end up with a mistake. God knows it was difficult but I don’t think it’s a mistake. I don’t think we have made a lot of horrible mistakes. Look around all this real estate. We bought all these buildings cheaply. They’re in a place that’s gotten more valuable. I don’t think it was a mistake to buy the Daily Journal when we did, paying the price we did. We paid two and a half million for it. We got a dividend of two and a half million shortly thereafter. Everything you see is profit. I think we’ve coped pretty well so far. Question: If you had a chance to make an addition or revision to Poor Charlie’s Almanac, what would that be? Charlie Munger: I don’t have any wonderful new thoughts. To the extent that my thoughts have helped my life, I think I’ve pretty well run the course. I don’t think I’m likely to have any new thoughts that are going to work miracles either. But, I find that the old ways of doing things still work. I’ve been engaged in recent years in trying to create a better type of student dormitory. I find that by working at that, I can actually make some improvements even though I’m old. So, I’m kind of pleased that I’m still functioning at all. I’m not trying to move mountains. Question: Do you believe any psychological personality tests, such as the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, to be of any good in choosing a compatible partner, given that choosing a spouse is probably the most important decision one can make in life. Could you please elaborate on the subject and could you consider giving a talk on this particular subject? The most important decision in life to benefit those who are single, perhaps including some of your grandchildren and great-grandchildren. Charlie Munger: Well, you know, I had a failed marriage, so I don’t think I’m in the perfect position to advise the young about marriage. No, I don’t think I have anything to contribute. Question: What have you done to live such a long life? Could you share the secret to living a long, healthy, and happy life? Charlie Munger: I think I’m alive because of a lucky genetic accident. I don’t think I can teach you how to retroactively get a new accident yourself. Gerry’s lived a long time too and I think we both have been lucky. No, I don’t have any secrets. I think I would have lived a long time if I had lived a different life. A happy life is very simple. The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. That’s one you can easily arrange. If you have unrealistic expectations, you’re going to be miserable all your life. I was good at having low expectations and that helped me. Also, when you get reverses, if you just suck it in cope, that helps if you don’t just fretfully stew yourself into a lot of misery. There are certain behavioral rules. Rose Blumpkin had quite an effect on the Berkshire culture. She created a business with like 500 depression dollars that became a huge business. You know what her mottoes were? Always tell the truth and never lie to anybody about anything. Those are pretty good rules and they’re pretty simple. A lot of the good rules of life are like that. They’re just very simple. Do it right the first time. That’s a really good rule.

提问:新冠疫情到达美国已经一年了。过去一年里,你们在经营企业方面学到了什么?有什么让你们感到意外的事情吗?对于现在创业的人,你们最好的建议是什么?

查理·芒格:关于创业,我想不出太多精彩的建议,但疫情教会我们的是,我们可以大幅减少差旅,大幅增加 Zoom 会议。

疫情结束后,我不认为一切会回到原来的样子。我认为我们会进入一个差旅大幅减少、Zoom 会议大幅增加的时代。我认为世界会变得相当不同。很多远程办公的人——很多人会一周三天去办公室、两天在家工作。很多事情都会改变。我预计会这样,也欢迎这种变化。

提问:您能对全世界正在观看的观众说几句临别感言吗?

查理·芒格:我们俩都真的很老了。我认为我们都做了同一件事:硬扛着,应付过去。我们没有其他秘诀,对吧,杰瑞?

杰拉德·萨尔兹曼:没有。你必须关心员工的生活。这一点非常非常重要。例如,在这里,我们大概有 30 或 40 人死亡。我们期望很多员工始终待在地方法院办公室,因为我们与他们密切合作,确保他们得到所需。正如查理所说,我们确实有很多差旅。现在这已被大幅削减。而且很多办公室我们去不了,因为它们关闭了。

至于我们的一些技术,比如电子立案系统,法院也关闭了。我们非常期待能让法院恢复运作,因为我们知道他们想运作,而且未来也会运作。

所以,你必须更贴近员工的需求、愿望、托儿问题,以及过去那些被认为理所当然的活动。这种事不再发生了。

每个人的情况都不一样。没有什么是特别明显、能让所有人都做同样事情的。而且,我们必须像非正式委员会一样运作,把员工和客户聚到一起,去解决他们已经知道的问题,以及我们如何能帮助他们做得更好——效率更高。

所以,作为一家小公司,“人”的部分已经发生了相当大的变化。我们受洛杉矶县和其他县的指导方针约束。我们在加州所有主要城市,还有犹他州洛根市都有办公室。我们受这些县的命令和指示约束,而这些以前其实根本不会对我们产生任何影响。

Question: It’s been a year since the coronavirus pandemic came to the U.S. What have you all learned about running a business in the past year? Has there been anything that has surprised you, and what would be your best advice to someone starting a business now? Charlie Munger: I don’t think I have a lot of wonderful advice about starting a business but what you’ve learned in the pandemic is that we can do with a lot less travel and a lot more Zooming. When the pandemic is over, I don’t think we’re going back to just the way things were. I think we’re into a lot less travel and a lot more Zooming. I think the world is gonna be quite different. A lot of the people who are doing this remote work—a lot are going to work three days a week in the office and two days a week at home. A lot of things are going to change. I expect that and I welcome it. Question: Can you share some parting thoughts with the viewers who are watching all around the world? Charlie Munger: We’re really old both of us. And I think both of us have done the same thing; we just suck it in and cope. We don’t have any other secrets, do we Jerry? Gerald Salzman: None. You have to be concerned about employees’ lives. That’s very, very important. And, for example, here, we must have 30 or 40 deaths. We expect many of our employees to always be at client court offices because we work with them very closely to make sure they get what they need. We do, as Charlie indicates, have a lot of travel. That’s been greatly curtailed. And we can’t go to many offices because they’re closed. As for some of our technology, like eFiling for example, the courts are closed. We are very excited to look forward to enabling the courts to function as we know that they want to and will in the future. So, you have to be a little closer to the employees’ needs, desires, babysitting, and all those activities that were kind of taken for granted in the past. It doesn’t happen anymore. Everybody’s got a different situation. Nothing is particularly obvious for everybody to do the same thing. And, we have to function as an informal committee in that we have to bring our employees and our clients together to work out what they already know and how we can help them do a better job—a more efficient job. So, the people part has changed quite considerably being a small company. We’re beholden to the guidelines of the county of Los Angeles and other counties. We have offices in all the major cities in California and also in Logan, Utah. We are subject to the orders and directions of those counties which, before, really didn’t impact anything.

查理·芒格:有一件事我们非常在意,那就是服务那些信任我们的客户。我们确实想好好干,在澳大利亚、加利福尼亚,以及其他所有人们信任我们的地方把工作做好。

生活中几乎没什么比得上对信任你的人保持可靠更重要。

我们会拼了命去好好干。《每日日报》的股东们将不得不接受这样一个结果:我们对客户的在意程度远超寻常。

Charlie Munger: There’s one thing that we’re quite passionate about and that is serving the customers who have trusted us. And, we are really interested in doing a good job in Australia, in California, and all the other places where people have trusted us. You can hardly think of anything more important in life than being reliable for the people who trust you. We’re going to bust our ass to try and do a good job. The Daily Journal shareholders will have to take whatever outcome comes from caring more about our customers than is at all common.