雷德兰兹论坛问答(2020年2月)——社区文字记录

2020 · 演讲 · 原文约 10218 词
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查理·芒格 @ Redlands 论坛 2020 年 2 月 7 日 - 由 ESRI 赞助

演讲者:查理·芒格、杰克·丹杰蒙德、拉里·伯吉斯

所有转录错误由我负责,请见谅。

Charlie Munger @ Redlands Forum 2/7/2020 - Sponsored by ESRI Speakers: Charlie Munger, Jack Dangermond, Larry Burgess All transcription errors are my own, please enjoy.

提问者

欢迎各位,查理,欢迎你来到我们雷德兰兹大家庭。嗯,我很高兴来到这里。我一向喜欢这些尴尬的时刻,你应该走上来……哦,我应该开始说。好,女士们先生们,今晚真是不可思议,我有幸和查理相处过,我想有三次,四次,有一次在他汉考克公园的家里,然后时不时的,他会来雷德兰兹找我们,这太棒了。所以我先从一个有趣的问题开始。查理,你在很多地方都有投资,比如米尔谷、圣巴巴拉,你住在汉考克公园,有时你说帕萨迪纳是你的第二故乡,你还在克莱尔蒙特周围有各种投资,现在又在雷德兰兹投资。你为什么在雷德兰兹投资?你对雷德兰兹怎么看?我是说,是什么吸引你来这里的?我能看出一种模式:圣巴巴拉、米尔谷、帕萨迪纳、克莱尔蒙特和雷德兰兹,这是怎么回事?

Questioner Welcome everybody and Charlie welcome to our Redlands family well I'm glad to be here I always like these awkward moments you're supposed to step oh I'm supposed to start well listen ladies and gentlemen this is an amazing evening I've had the pleasure to spend I think three times with Charlie four times once at his house in Hancock Park and and then from time to time he comes to Redlands us it's not amazing and so I'll simply start with an interesting question I think it's an interesting question Charlie you have investments in a lot of places like mill Valley and Santa Barbara and you live in Hancock Park and sometimes you say that Pasadena is your second home and then you have various investments around Claremont and now investing here in Redlands. Why are you investing at Redlands what do you what do you think about Redlands I mean what is it that attracts you here I mean I can see a kind of pattern there Santa Barbara Mill Valley Pasadena Claremont and Redlands what is it?

查理·芒格

嗯,我对这个地区有天然的偏爱,因为当年在加州理工学院的时候,我经常在这附近晃悠。我的第一任妻子上的是斯克里普斯学院,我妹妹也上的是斯克里普斯学院,所以我对这一带非常熟悉。当然,我也和很多热爱这里大学的人打过交道。所以我一开始,就总是很喜欢那些映衬着山脉的橘子树,不管怎样,我一开始就有很深的偏爱,是的。但我在这里的投资是偶然发生的。事情是这样的:我住在一个社区,几十年前,一群禁欲的犹太人搬了进来,非常成功的一群人。有一天在我家,一个非常年轻的十七岁小伙子,好像叫乔,过来给了我一本希伯来语的希伯来圣经。你知道,芒格这个姓听起来像德语犹太人的姓氏,在德语和英语里都意味着小贩,所以乔以为芒格能读懂希伯来语的希伯来圣经,倒也不算完全疯狂,但我当然读不了。我和他聊了起来,然后事情就一环扣一环,我和阿维成了朋友,看着他长大。阿维没上过大学,他有轻微的注意力缺陷障碍,但智商极高,他为此很担心。我跟阿维说,别担心,你根本不需要上大学,你会非常成功的。果然,现在阿维有四个孩子,生意做得极大,我说对了,他不需要上大学。

Charlie Munger well I have a natural prejudice for this area because when I was at Caltech in I used to hang around here my first wife went to Scripps College and my sister went to Scripps College and so I'm very familiar with this area and of course I've interfaced a lot of the people who love these universities out here and so I I started with a very always like the orange trees against the mountains whatever I started with a deep prejudice yes and but my investments here happened by accident what happened was I live in a neighborhood which the ascetic Jews came into a few decades ago a very successful group of people and one day in the my house a very young seventeen year old as that he Joe came by and gave me the Hebrew Bible in Hebrew and you know Munger sounds like it could be a German Jewish surname and it means peddler in both German and English so it wasn't totally crazy first setting Joe to think that Munger could read the Hebrew Bible in Hebrew but of course I couldn't and I got to talking with him and one thing led to another and I saw there befriended avi and watched him grow up and and avi never went to college he has a mild attention deficit disorder but Ferociously high IQ and he was worried about it and I said avi I said don't worry about you don't need any college you're going to succeed vitalism well Avi now it has four children hugely successful business and I was right he didn't need college

提问者

阿维就站在那儿,站起来吧,阿维。

Questioner and Avi is standing rather there stand up avi is

芒格

向人群挥挥手。阿维在他的公寓管理业务中有一个客户,他的主要客户,他不高兴,我觉得有道理。所以有一天我跟他讲,因为我喜欢并信任阿维,我说,你为什么不甩掉那个客户?你去给我买一批公寓吧。我们看的第一批就是我在这里买的那几栋,事情就是这样发生的。顺便说一句,它们在阿拉巴马街的尽头,你知道那片漂亮的公寓吗?真的非常棒,你停车、你停车、你敢写……

Munger Wave to the crowd Avi had a client his main client in his apartment management business and he was unhappy and and I think rightly so and so I said to him one day cuz I've gotten the like and trust AVI I said why don't you just get rid of that client you've gotten by a bunch of apartments for me and the first ones we saw were the ones I bought out here and that's how it happened and by the way there at the end of Alabama you know those beautiful apartments they're really amazing park you park you park you dare write

提问者

我觉得那些公寓里有一半住户在 ESRI 工作。

Questioner I think half of the occupants of those apartments work at Elstree

查理·芒格

所以,有一天我正坐在那儿,他打电话来,说,我能出来跟你谈谈吗?我当然不太清楚他是谁,就说行啊,没问题。这就是我们这段友谊的开始,热情而奇妙。但我们玩得很开心,阿维、他的合伙人鲁本和我,我们一起买老旧的公寓然后翻新,这挺有创意的。当然,我们有一个理念:妥善维护。公寓管理行业里到处都是只顾榨取房产价值、做最少维护的人,如果你是一个长期投资者,那就是个愚蠢的错误。阿维和我深信,所有这些物业都应该立即得到改善。我记得第一年还是什么时候,仅四个项目我们就在树上花了……美元。

Charlie Munger so so one day I'm sitting there and he calls me he says could I come out and talk to you of course I didn't know exactly know who Charlie was so sure yeah okay and that's what began this friendship passionate amazing but we've had a fair amount of fun Avi and his partner Reuben and I and it's kind of creative to buy old apartments and fix them up and of course we have a philosophy that that properly cared for and the apartment management field is full of people who just milk the properties and do the very minimal and that's a stupid mistake if you're a long-term investor and avi and I share a belief that all these things should be immediately improved and I think in the first what year or something like that we spend $, on trees on just four projects

提问者

你这句话说到我心坎里了。

Questioner you've got my heart right there

提问者

这是个安排好的问题吗?[糟糕的爸爸式笑话,哈哈]

Questioner was that a planted question? [bad dad joke haha]

查理·芒格

但杰克,你这么做可能是出于热爱,我知道这对我会有多好,所以我没什么好值得称赞的,因为现在种那些树在经济上对我非常有利。我可能无论如何都会种,但我没法证明这一点。我们就是这样来到这里的。当然,我喜欢这里的山、喜欢这里的树,也喜欢这里的人。我喜欢这些好大学。我一开始并没有想过要从全世界中挑出雷德兰兹,只是这个公寓项目吸引了我的注意。但一旦我到了这里,我并不知道有 ESRI 这家公司。我这辈子都是靠铅笔、钢笔和计算器,在稳定的复合收益中走过来的,我年来就没有碰过微积分题目了。所以我完全是老式的常识和一点点算术的产物,不了解像 ESRI 这样的软件公司。如果我早知道的话,我会为那个项目多付钱的。你知道,一个社区里有一个像 ESRI 这样的大雇主,持续不断地招人,那简直是巨大的福气,等等等等,显而易见。所以我很聪明。我没有建议他开始给公寓运营商制定各种关于租约担保、首付之类的规则,并不是 ESRI 的每一个新员工都符合条件。我只是看了一眼情况,就对任何想在 ESRI 工作的人免除了所有那些要求。谢谢,阿维,我非常感激。但话说回来,他还是不值得称赞,这是个聪明的商业决策。他自己也不清楚自己是在做好人还是在贪婪。我喜欢这些事,它们是两个因素朝着正确方向汇合的结果。是的。但我碰巧觉得,我和杰克一样对设计和建筑感兴趣,这绝对是个意外。我叔叔是哈佛建筑学院的毕业生,我是哈佛法学院的毕业生,在我漫长的一生中,我自己建了不少房子,也搞过各种各样的建筑项目。所以做杰克的专业工作,对我来说算是一种爱好。当然,我看到了这个美丽的园区,这家非常成功的公司。同时,我也是个彻头彻尾的迷信者,相信得到你想要的东西的最好方式,就是配得上它。当然,如果你把这个应用到商业上,就意味着你要真正照顾好客户。很明显,如果 ESRI 没有极其出色地照顾好客户,它就不会有今天。当然,我再说一遍,我这么做不值得任何称赞,我知道照顾客户能赚更多的钱,比我做一个更短期的运营商要赚得多。是的,我不会把自己伪装成一个更好的人,因为它效果太好了。我不认为如果我是特蕾莎修女,做一些我不喜欢做的事会更好,因为多赚一个美元很难。但我的人生就是这样被组织起来的:一次又一次,对我钱包有利的事情,也符合所有我被教导的道德准则。你知道,任何人处于这种位置都极其幸运。你们这些为 ESRI 这样的公司工作的人,也极其幸运,因为有很多雇主是有缺陷的。这是一件事。

Charlie Munger but Jack you're probably doing it out of love and I know how much better it's going to work for me so I don't deserve much credit because it's very much in my interest financially to plant all those trees now I would probably plant them anyway but I can't prove that that's how that's how we get came out here and of course I like I like the mountains like the trees and I like the people what I like these good colleges and I I didn't start out with the idea I picked Redlands out of the world it's just where this apartment project that caught my attention was and but once I was here I did not know there was an ESRI company I have made my way in life with a pencil and a pen calculating machine in the compound ever stable and I haven't looked at the calculus question since I was years old so I'm totally a creature of old-fashioned horse sense a little arithmetic and so I don't know about software companies like Ezra if I'd known I would have paid more for the project you know it's it's a huge blessing to go into communal is a big employer that keeps hiring and so forth then obvious so smart I didn't suggest that he started giving they're all kinds of rules of apartment-house operators about guarantees of leases and down payments and what-have-you and not every new employee of Eve Ezri qualifies and I'll be just one look at the situation and waves all those requirements for anybody that wants to work at ESRI Thank You avi I really appreciate that but there again he doesn't deserve any credit it's a smart business direct so he doesn't know whether he's being nicer being a greedy I do whatever I like these things were a confluence of two factors is working in the right direction yeah and but it I happen to think I share Jack's interest in the design and architecture which is an absolute accident my uncle was a graduate of the Harvard School of Architecture and I am a graduate of the Harvard Law School and I have done a fair amount of house building for myself and and building projects of various kinds in my long life and so it's kind of a hobby with me to do what Jack does professionally and so of course and I see this beautiful campus this very successful company and I'm also a total nut on the subject that the best way to get what you want life to deserve what you want and of course if you apply that the business that means you really take care of the customers and it's perfectly obvious that what's happened to ESRI would not have happened if it weren't terribly good taking care of the customers and of course that's again I don't deserve any credit for doing it and I know I make more money taking care of the customers I would if I were more short-term operator than operating em so yeah I don't on a masquerade as a better fellow I am because since it works so well I don't think it's it'd be nicer if I were mother Teresa do something I didn't like doing because lemon dough will sold but I can my life is organized a just time after time what works for my pocketbook works for every moral teaching I've I've been taught you know and I anybody was in such a possession it's very lucky and you people will work for a company like ESRI are hugely lucky too because there are a lot of employers that are defective one of the things

提问者

我有一个问题,你和沃伦在职业生涯中收购了许多公司,你们可能看过数千家。你用来判断一家公司是好是坏的哲学是什么?我不是说你们在所有的收购中都取得了完美的成功,因为我知道你跟我说过。但是,当你考虑投资或收购一个组织时,你的基本哲学规则是什么?

Questioner I have as a question as you have acquired many companies you and Warren together in your career you've looked at probably thousands what's the kind of philosophy that you have determining what's a good company and what's not a good company right I'm not suggesting that you had perfect success in all of your acquisitions because I know you have you told me that but what is it that what is your sort of philosophical rule base for when you're looking at organizations to invest in or acquire

查理·芒格:嗯,我们的思维方式非常独特——我们想买那种内在质地极好的生意,就是说,哪怕有个傻瓜来管,它也能经营得不错;然后,我们希望这个傻瓜都能管好的生意,由一个杰出的人在管理。如果既能拥有杰出的生意,又有杰出的人在管理,那我们就真的兴奋了,效果也非常好。当然我们也破例,但不多。这套哲学相当简单。沃伦有时候会说,你得在好人和好生意之间做选择。你们知道他的说法——这话政治上可不正确——他说他要好生意,要那种有极其强大竞争力的生意。我有个做律师的朋友说过:如果一家公司连一点管理不善都扛不住,那它根本算不上什么好生意。我们喜欢的是能扛得住大量管理不善的生意,只是它碰巧没摊上罢了。这就是我们的公式。我们没办法把它执行得完美,但它确实比绝大多数人的办法效果好。而且,我们也拒绝过一些非常出色的生意和非常出色的人,只因为那个行业太难了。是啊,你们知道,我这一辈子运气特别好,但我有一次接了一个活儿——去当一家非营利医院的董事会主席,那就是个必输的局。竞争对手太多,自身地位太弱,还有一大堆致命的缺陷。我当时跟自己说,这对你有好处,让你暴露在真实世界的失望里。我要说的是,那几年是痛苦和愉悦的交织,而痛苦从未消失。如果生意本身足够难,它就有办法一直难下去。沃伦有句话:当一家以“难搞”闻名的生意,碰上一个以“精明”著称的管理者,他说,最后留下来的是生意的名声。如果开头就很难,它们就会一直难下去。判断一家企业或者一个人,真的很难。祝你好运吧——如果你搞砸了,顶多就像让你自己的孩子失望了一样。[笑声]

Charlie Munger well we have a very peculiar way of looking at things we want to buy something that's intrinsically a very good business meaning there's an idiot cos Runner and it would do all right and then we want that business which an idiot could run successfully to have a wonderful person and running it and that we have a wonderful business with a wonderful person running it that really turns us on and it works very well and now we do make exceptions but not many and and it's a pretty simple philosophy Warren sometimes says you have to choose good person or good business you know what he says this is not politically correct he says good business he wants something that has such a such tremendous strength I had a friend why we practice law and he said if it won't stand a little mismanagement it's not much of a business and we like businesses that stand a lot of mismanagement but don't get it so that's our formula and it and we can't make it work perfectly but it certainly worked better than most people's things have been and then and we reject some wonderful businesses and some wonderful people where it's just too tough yeah you know I took on once I've been so lucky in life that I took on wants a job of a chairman of a non-profit Hospital because it was a losing hand too many competitors to weak position yeah a lot of terrible defects and I said you know this is good for me you know I am exposed myself to the disappointments of the real world and I want to say it was years mixed agony and pleasure and the agony never went away it was if the business is tough enough it hasn't way of staying tough as a warrants that says that when a business with a reputation for being tough and a manager with an opportunity for being brilliant get together he says it's the reputation of the business that remains and if they start tough they stay tough it's really hard to judge a whole business or a person well lot's of luck if you're coming with disappointed one of your children [Laughter]

提问者

对,有一次你提到,你有一种跟人做生意、跟朋友谈交易的特殊方式——你能不能跟大伙儿说说?就是说,你那种哲学:你是想全赢,还是怎么着?

Questioner yeah one time you mentioned that you have a particular way of making deals with people your friends business deals could you sort of express that to this crowd you know your sort of philosophy about do you try to win it all cause or what is

芒格:

不不不,又来了。生活中真正有效的是双赢,这需要对对方怎么想、对方需要什么有一定的敏感度。但双赢是唯一能一直一直一直管用的公式。当它真正开始运转的时候——当两个人互相信任的时候,想想吧,一个手术室,梅奥诊所,整个该死的小组互相信任,没有一大堆律师在那儿切来切去,你知道他们就是知道该做什么、想做、该找谁、找谁帮什么忙,每个人都做自己该做的事,等等等等。所以我们一直在追求这种双赢的关系。当然,我天天都能看到它。好市多就有这个名声。我是好市多的董事。好市多的名声是它是个相当难缠的买家。我不觉得他们有那么难缠。有很多人是因为给好市多做供应商而发财的。但好市多是走双赢路线的。这才是真正管用的。

Munger well no no no again what really works in life is win-win and that requires some sensitivity to the other roles way of thinking and his needs to end but win-win is the only formula that that really will work on and on and on and when it really starts working when two people trust each other imagine take a operating theatre the Mayo Clinic the whole damn group trust one another there's not a lot of lawyers are cut you know they just know what to do and want to do it and who to call um for what helping everybody does what they're supposed to and so on so we're trying to get these win-win relations and of course I see it all the time Costco has this reputation I'm a director of Costco and Costco has this reputation of being a fairly tough buyer I don't regard them as that tough they there are a lot of people who are richest small compliers of Costco and but but Costco's into into win-win and and that that's what really works

提问者:

是的,这对客户是双赢,但这对供应商也是双赢,对员工同样也是双赢——绝对要让每个人都赢。彼得·考夫曼,你知道,他几周前还来过这里,有人见过彼得吗?他是彼得·考夫曼的密友,那个追求双赢的经营者。

Questioner yeah it's win-win with their customers but it's also win-win with their suppliers and it's also win-win with their employees absolutely everybody has to win land and Peter Kauffman you know else just it was here a few weeks ago didn't anybody see Peter he's the close friend of Peters the element win-win operator and the

查理·芒格:

我这辈子最不想与之竞争的人就是彼得,他对顾客照顾得实在太周到了。我从没听到过彼得的顾客有任何抱怨——除了他的价格之外,这门生意的其他方面都堪称完美。没错。

Charlie Munger last person I want to compete with in life is Peter he just takes such good care of the customers I've never heard any complaint from Peters customers except his prices everything else about the business is perfect yeah

杰克(提问者):

拉里,你有什么问题吗?拉里·伯吉斯(提问者):对,我完全同意,不过我要换个话题,跟杰克刚才问的不一样。提前预警一下——我们在后台聊过这个,我觉得你对我在慈善方面的一个问题有很出乎意料的看法,你给的分析让我觉得相当意外,我以前还真没这么想过。所以,能请你——对,把那个分析再讲一遍给大家听听?

Jack (Questioner ) Larry do you have any questions? Larry Burgess (Questioner ) yeah I totally but I'm going to change it from the subjects you've been asking Jack and for warning spoiler alert we talked about this back backstage I think you have a surprising take on a question that I was asking about philanthropy in this country and you gave an analysis that to me was quite unexpected that wasn't really thinking about so can I have you yeah all the gang we had to repeat it

查理·芒格

我在生活中观察到,欧洲没有美国这样的慈善传统。欧洲唯一民众习惯性大量捐赠的国家是荷兰——他们当年要共同对抗北海,荷兰国土有一半在海平面以下,人们真的必须互相帮助,修建堤坝等等。而在美国,我们有拓荒者,从敌意、危险和恶劣气候中夺取这片土地,每个人都必须帮助其他人。所以我认为,荷兰和美国都得益于庞大的慈善传统。但我认为,共同的艰难困苦是原因。我觉得这是美国的一大优势。如果我们中任何人被移植到意大利或法国或德国,会觉得那里的人相当自私——他们就是没有多少捐赠的传统。是的,我不知道你们怎么想,但我参与慈善活动一直是我人生中很大的一部分,我认为这让我变得更好,我拥有了更好的人生。所以我觉得,他们错过了这些。

Charlie Munger what I have noticed in my life is that in Europe they do not have American philanthropy it's just during the only country in Europe where the people give heavily in routinely what we do here is how long then they were fighting the North Sea together percent of Holland is under sea level and they really had to help one another were the dikes and so forth and America we had the Pioneers taking away the country from hostilities and danger and bad climate and so forth and everybody had to help everybody else so I think that both Holland and the United States were helped with a big tradition of philanthropy but I think common hardship and I think it's a great strength that we have in America and if any of us were transplanted to Italy or France or Germany we'd feel hurt was selfish people they just don't have much of a tradition of giving yeah and I don't know about you but my involvement with charitable activities has been a big part of my life and I think I'm better for it I've had a better life so I think they they're missing out

拉里·伯吉斯:

你好,你好吗?我是说你是怎么做到的?我观察到的是,你有一套非常具体的做事方式,我对此完全着迷,但也很好奇,想请你分享一下。

Larry Burgess how do you do how you're how do you do it I mean you you what I've watched is you have a very specific set of things you do and I'm totally charmed by it but also interested in having you Sharon

查理·芒格

好吧,并不是每个人都会被它迷住,因为我每天都能收到乞讨信,我通常都会把它们扔进废纸篓,尤其是当信件来自我不认识的个人时,因为我有一种感觉,一旦我开始回复那些信,我的生活里就只剩下信了。但我和其他人一样,对某些事情比对其他事情更感兴趣。我做慈善的时候,经常会把我的想法和钱混在一起。我的态度和麦克纳马拉当年在中国时对中国人说的很像,那时中国还陷在没有“中国特色”的共产主义泥潭里。麦克纳马拉说:“我们从世界银行给你们这么多钱。但我得告诉你们一件事——我推广的这些想法,会比这笔巨款对你们的帮助大得多。”后来结果也确实如此。当一点点自由企业制度与中国共产主义结合时,它把几亿人——应该是十亿多人——从苦力劳动和仅够糊口的农业中解救了出来。他们曾经像中非的人民一样生活,也没过多少年。现在中国有了庞大的中产阶级,人均 GDP 达到几千美元,而不是三百美元。这彻底改变了他们。想法的价值确实更大。你必须得给中国人点赞。你知道,有个老共产主义者说过:“不管黑猫白猫,抓住老鼠就是好猫。”他们看着新加坡的华人,把一片疟疾肆虐的沼泽变成了几乎是人间的天堂,那里的人口百分之几十是华人。而他们自己却陷在贫困、默默无闻、连厕所都没有的生活里,日子过得极其艰难。这边的新加坡却因为其华人人口而繁荣昌盛。那个老共产主义者说:“我想成为新加坡。”然后他就做到了。在我看来,他值得一些赞誉。在我的一生中,我认为新加坡发生的事是世界历史上最有趣的政治科学案例之一。我认为李光耀可能是人类历史上最伟大的国家建设者。虽然,他有时也会用一些相当强硬的手段。他上台时非常年轻,被一群恨他、恨不得把他生吞活剥的穆斯林包围着。他向世界上所有其他国家求助,希望他们帮他组建一支军队,因为那些人会干掉他。结果他刚说完,那些国家就让他自己解决自己的问题。世界上所有国家都拒绝帮助他,只有一个例外——以色列。他说:“我周围是一群恨我的穆斯林,我怎么才能接受来自以色列的军事援助呢?”他最终想出了办法。他接受了援助,然后告诉所有人那些人是墨西哥人。[笑声] 好了,你现在明白他为什么能如此成功了。他有句口头禅,虽然没什么文学性,但非常有道理。他反复说:“找出什么管用,然后去做。”这就是李光耀说的。非常务实,非常务实。听听,找出什么管用,然后去做。

Charlie Munger well not everybody is charmed by it because I get begging letters every day and I just always basket particularly when they come for individuals I don't know because I have a feeling you I started responding to those I'd have nothing but letters but I'm like everybody else I have things that interest me more than other things and I have done a lot of philanthropy where I mixed my own ideas with my money and my attitude there is a lot like what McNamara told the Chinese when he lived over there when they were still mired in communism without Chinese characteristics and McNamara says we're giving you all this money from my World Bank he says well I want you to know Something he says the ideas I'm promoting are going to help you a lot more than this enormous amount of money and so it worked out, what a little free enterprise did when added Chinese communism was take million people up to a billion something people and % of them were living in stoop labor and subsistence agriculture they were living like the people of central Africa live and and it wasn't that many years well if the Chinese have a big middle class and an average GDP of , dollars a person instead of three hundred dollars a person transform them and the ideas were worth more you have to give the Chinese credit for you know one of those old communist says I don't care if the cat is black or white as long as it catches Mice They watch the Chinese man in Singapore and take a malarial swamp and turn it into almost a paradise with a % Chinese population and they're sitting there in this poverty and obscurity in no toilets and and really who very tough lives and here's Singapore flourishing with his Chinese population that old communist says I want to be like Singapore and he made it happen now that I think he deserves some credit in my life I think what happened in Singapore was one of the interesting bits of political science that ever happened in the history of the world I would argue the Lee Kuan Yu was probably the greatest nation builders has ever built now occasionally he would use a pretty tough method he took over he was a very young man and he was surrounded by a bunch of Muslims have hated him and like they'd spit him out and he asked all the other nations of the world to please help him get an army cuz they got him he's just left and said handle their own problem and every nation in the world refused to help him but one and that was Israel and he said how am I gonna take military aid surrounded by Muslims who hate me from Israel he finally figured it out he accepted the Aidan told everybody they were Mexicans [Laughter] well here you can see why he was so successful he had a mantra which doesn't have any literary quality but it has a lot of good sense and he'd say or over again figure out what works and do it that's what Lee Kuan Yu said. That is very practical, very practical can I hear out what works and do it do

拉里·伯吉斯:接着刚才的话题问一句——您觉得,人在慈善方面,是像我知道的,不是基因决定的,而是生来就有一种本能的助人冲动,还是像随着年纪增长而学会的一种特质?我就是好奇。

Larry Burgess a follow-up on this did you do you feel that philanthropically are people I know there's not a gene but born with an instinctive sense that to help or is it a learned trait as one gets on I just

查理·芒格

我认为慈善事业有无数种理由,我一生中观察到一件非常有趣的事:我认识不少赚了不少钱的流氓,他们起初给一点钱是为了显摆,但 20 年后,他们真的成了另一种人。你在很大程度上会变成你假装的样子。我观察得这么多,觉得伪善也有可取之处,但这并不是一个常见的观察——我见过生活中有太多美好,我不觉得伪善全是坏事。我总是努力假装比实际好一点,但别好太多。

Charlie Munger I think there's a million different reasons for philanthropy and one thing that is very interesting that I've observed in my life, I've known a lot of roguish people that made it fair amount of money and they start giving a little money to show off and 20 years later they're actually real for other us you you you become what you pretend to be to some considerable extent andhaving observed this so much I think there's something to be said for hypocrisy but that's not a common it's not a common observation but I've seen it there's so much good in life it I don't think it's all bad hypocrisy I always try to pretend to be a little better than I am not too much of a

现场人士 1

顺便问一下,你不是每天读一本书吗?差不多那样?谢谢。

Questioner 1 by the way don't you read a book a day something like that thank you

查理·芒格

嗯,也许我读,我浏览,哦是的。生活中的意外会让你送书给我,我没撕过的书,完全陌生的人送书给我,对,很多。我现在几乎不再买书了。年轻时,我会从《纽约时报》的书评专栏订购。现在都是送来的,我只看我想要的。我很惊讶有些送书人对我了解得这么准。那这给你的生活带来了什么?我觉得,这对我来说再适合不过了。我不认为你能拍拍每个爱读书的小男孩的头,说“随便读吧,约翰尼”,就能把他变成亿万富翁。如果那么简单,亿万富翁就更多了。但阅读极大地帮助了我。我一辈子都在读。从阅读和算术中学到的东西,你能吸收那么多,还能按自己的时间安排。如果别人跟你说话,你听到的是他告诉你你不想知道的东西,或者你已经知道得太难了,或者他讲得太快或太慢。但阅读,你可以自己掌握节奏。所以,如果你要自学,没有比阅读更好的了。当然,大量阅读的人有巨大的优势。

Charlie Munger well maybe I read I skim oh yeah I do the accidents of life you'll give me books I haven't torn the books and perfect strangers give me books yeah lots of them and and I almost never buy a book anymore well I was young I used to order them from the book review columns of the New York Times and now it's Tartabull comes in I just saw like what I want and I'm amazed at how well some of these people are reading me and yes and what has that done to your life I think well it's it was perfect for me I don't think you can take every bookish little boy and turn him into a billionaire by patting him on the head and say read all you want Johnny but if it were that easy there'd be more billionaires but but it it enormously helped me and I've been reading what you've learned at reading and arithmetic you can take in so much and you can take it in on your own time schedule if somebody's talking to you hear me telling you something you don't want to know you already know it's too hard or he's going too fast or too slow but you're reading you can just they can take it and you wallet so it's just it's just it's just God's gift if you if you're the self education there's nothing like reading and of course people do a lot of it have an enormous advantage and

杰克

这对教育意味着什么?

Jack what does that say to education

拉里

是的,或者你可能回到这个问题:今天你有如此深厚和多样的兴趣,以及获取知识、观察等等的方式,但我们正朝着专业化和广泛基础之间的什么方向走?

Larry yeah or you might have yeah we back to this issue about sort of today you have such a and depth of diverse interests and ways in which you acquire knowledge and observation and all the rest but where do you think we're headed in terms of specialization versus a broad-based

查理·芒格

至少,专业化对大多数人来说是最安全的路。正因如此,外科医生懂得越来越多关于越来越少的东西。那就是被奖励的方式。如果你的结肠有严重的瘘管,你可不希望两个外科医生去读普鲁斯特或政治学。世界如何奖励专业化是可以理解的。我从来不喜欢它,我热爱获取新想法,是个狂热的读者。所以我决定靠做我喜欢的事谋生,那就是广泛涉猎。我不推荐其他人这样做,因为安全的路是精通某件事。在我们的体制下,人们会找到你。如果你还同时修剪草坪,这不会太好用——你知道,我做过不少。是的,我的意思是,你有没有让这里每个人按小时工作,业余时间修剪草坪,那不会很好。

Charlie Munger at least well our specialization is the safest way up for most people and for that reason they surgeons know more and more about less and less and that's it that's what's gets rewarded didn't know if you have a nasty fistula in your colon you do not want two surgeons go to Proust or political science it's understandable how the world rewards this specialization I never liked it and I loved picking up new ideas being great a passion of reader and so I decided I'd make whatever living and I could make doing what I like to do which is wrapping over a whole field I do not recommend it to other people because the safe way up is no I have a lot about something and under our system they find you out you know as very wouldn't work very well if you also rake lawns you know you never know I've done I've done my share of it yeah well I mean but have you had everybody out here when working by the hour raking wands on the spare time it wouldn't work very well and

杰克

我想拉里在试图问的是通识教育的作用,你怎么看?

Jack I think what Larry is trying to get at is the role of a liberal arts education what is your thoughts about that

查理·芒格

嗯,这当然是一个巨大的优势。如果你学会了你的母语,这是非常有用的礼物。当然,学会基本的生活数学是另一个巨大礼物。如果你真的擅长掌握语言和做基本算术,你可以覆盖巨大的领域,你不需要太多别的。自从离开加州理工学院后,我再也没看过微积分问题,一次也没看,一次也没用过。顺便说一句,我曾是个高手,但几年后全忘了。我不知道你的微积分怎么样,但我的已经没了,消失了。但这些其他东西永远不会消失。如果你不断磨练它,变得擅长,那么你学到比大学里教的更重要的东西:你学会学习的方法。当我想知道某件事时,我就去学它。比如,我去哈佛法学院时,想不通文鲜明牧师怎么邀请人过一个周末,他们回来后就变成了一生的僵尸。哈佛法学院没人能给我解释,所以我说我自己弄清楚。我妈妈有首小诗:“小脑袋读哈姆雷特说‘我自己做’,那颗放射的小灵魂。”我说我会弄明白这个,但花了很长时间。我最终满意地弄清楚了他们到底在做什么:他们只是通过实践演化偶然撞上的,并非有意设计。他们拼凑了一堆心理技巧,一下子困住这些人,在压力条件下,到了某个点大脑就会崩溃,这些人就变成了奴隶。砰!那是非常有趣的事。当然没人想谈它,因为这意味着人们害怕的东西。但我认为这种“如果他们不解释,就自己弄明白”的习惯,在生活中极大地帮助了我。它也曾伤害我,因为当你进入别人的领域,表现得比他知道得多时,你会严重冒犯别人。我现在比年轻时平滑多了,但仍然相当令人讨厌。

Charlie Munger well it's in a it's a it's an enormous advantage of course if you learn your own language that's a very useful gift and of course learning the basic math of life is another tremendous gift and if you're really good at picking up language and doing just basic arithmetic you can take enormous territory you don't need much else I have never looked at the calculus problem since I left Caltech never left it never looked once never used it and I was a whiz by the way I went away totally some years yeah I don’t know about your calculus but mine is mindless its gone and so but this other stuff never goes away and if you keep honing it and if you get good at it then you learn something that's more important than what they teach you in college is you learn the method of learning when I want to know something I just learned it and take for instance I got to the Harvard Law School I couldn't figure out how reverend moon was inviting people out to one weekend then they came back brainwashed zombies for the rest of their lives and I just nobody in the Harvard Law School could explain it to me so I saw I'll figure it out for myself you know my mother had a little nursery rhyme a little heady read Hamlet said I'll do it myself the little radiant soul I said I'll figure this out what I'd be a long time but I finally figured out to my satisfaction exactly what was being done they were just and they just stumbled into this through practice evolution it wasn't calculated for thought they just assembled a bunch of psychological tricks impounded the one these people all at once under conditions involving stress and at a certain point the brain would just snap and they had these people transformed into slaves boom why that was a very interesting thing but of course nobody wants to talk about it because it has implications people fear but but I think that the that habit of oh if they won't explain if you figure it out for yourself has helped me enormously in life it's also hurt me because you give terrible offense when you go into somebody else's profession and act like you know more than he does and I've I much smoother now that I was when I was young I'm still pretty insufferable but

现场人士

你今天对经济的看法是什么?相比 10 年前,相比 20、30、40 年前?

Questioner what are you thinking about today is the economy in reference to ten years ago in reference to 20, 30, 40 years ago

查理·芒格

今天发生了什么?嗯,政治方面,人们比以前更恨对方。不是说过去没有政治仇恨,但现在这种恨简直能用刀切,双方都是。我觉得这非常丑陋。我也认为这种愚蠢——允许自己恨那么多——在一生中我注意到两样东西真正对承受者造成巨大伤害:一个是怨恨,另一个是仇恨。它对你有什么好处?让它在世界的方式下在底层溃烂?当然,我见过人们利用怨恨来获取政治权力——阿道夫·希特勒:“你知道我们可怜的德国人受虐待了吗?巴拉巴拉巴拉,挥舞着手臂。”我不认为我们两边已经漂得太远:太多仇恨,太多怨恨。而且我认为这对承受者造成巨大伤害,因为你可以对你的政治对手失望,但不必恨他。毕竟,他可能在某些方面跟你一样是个疯子。

Charlie Munger what's going on today well what's gone politics is the people hate each other more than they used to it wasn't that we didn't have political hatreds in the old days but now the hatred you can cut with a knife on both sides I think it's very ugly and I also think of this stupid allow yourself to hate that much there are two things I've noticed in a long life really do a enormous damage to the bearer and one of them is resentment and the other is hatred and it's just what good is it gonna do you to have this Fester's down under the way the world is and and of course I've watched people work on resentment to get power in politics Adolf Hitler “did you know we poor Germans of an abused blah-blah-blah-blah waving his arms” and I don't I think that we have drifted on both sides and a way too much hatred and way too much resentment and does this guy and I think it does terrible damage to the bearer cuz this you can be disappointed in your political opponent you don't have to hate him after all he's just you're probably as much about nutcases he is in some ways

现场人士

这不会让你对我们的时代感到害怕吗?或者你觉得一切会好起来?

Questioner doesn't scare you about our times or what he what do you think do you think it's gonna all work out

查理·芒格

政治中总有不少这种情况。你知道,杰斐逊和汉密尔顿互相仇恨。富兰克林甚至没有——富兰克林有一定的怨恨和仇恨,但他努力保持理性。不,我认为我们太多仇恨了。他们说这种恨让你盲目:恨这么多会蒙蔽你的认知。每个人身上都有好的一面。举个极端的例子,阿道夫·希特勒对他的狗、情妇和治疗他母亲癌症的犹太医生非常好。我的意思是,连阿道夫·希特勒都有一些好的东西。你不必因为你不同意某人的政治,就对所有人都完全愤怒。

Charlie Munger well there's always been a fair amount of it in politics you know and Jefferson and Hamilton hated each other and Franklin didn't even, Franklin had a certain amount of resentment hatred and he was he worked hard at being sensible no I think that we have way too much too much they said it's blinding you hate that much it blinds your cognition and and there's some good and everybody you have an extreme example Adolf Hitler was terribly nice to his dog his mistress and the Jewish doctors that treated his mother's cancer I mean there is something how many I mean even Adolf Hitler had something really I mean you don't have to be totally mad at everybody you because you don't like their politics

现场人士

经济上呢?你害怕今天的时代吗?相比 10 年前大衰退发生的时候,也许你可以谈谈衰退。它在某种意义上发生了,你得到了什么?

Questioner what about economically are you afraid of the times today we'd compare it to ten years ago when the Great Recession happening maybe if you could well about the recession it happened in a sense you got

查理·芒格

我这辈子过得最轻松,待在最容易的地方,任何一代人都想象不到会有这么好的条件——1924 年出生在内布拉斯加州的奥马哈,一个白人男性中产家庭。我一生都享有巨大顺风。没有比这更好的时代了:更多问题被解决,更多疾病被治愈,普遍繁荣和进步层出不穷,没完没了。那么,2021 年出生的年轻男性,未来还会这么轻松吗?我不这么认为。我觉得会更难。我——我几乎能看到这一点,你知道。这几乎是偶然的——我们搞出了可怕的氢弹,却换来了几十年的和平,我是说主要的和平。我们有些小战争,我父亲刚打完一场战争,接着又有人挑起另一场。所以,不——我认为未来会更艰难。而且——哦,我这七十年一直在持续投资美国企业,那是相当不错的七十年。我想,在我的成年生活中,平均回报大概涨了 40 倍左右。以前从未有过这样的时期。当然,按实际通胀调整后,不是 40 倍,要少得多,因为每年大概有两到三个百分点的通胀。但今天的人,还能指望有七到八个百分点的实际回报,并且七十年里没有大的战争或麻烦吗?我觉得现在几乎为零。我没有任何理由绝望。毕竟,你为什么要在意呢?你认为我们玩的是你赢不了的游戏——我们都会死。如果你能接受这个,那你就能承受一点萧条或别的什么。是的,杰克——提问者:但更短的时间跨度呢?现在是投资股市的好时机吗?这问题挺逗的,是吧?

Charlie Munger I had the easiest time in the easiest place that any generation ever had imagine being born a white male burgeois household born in 1924 in Omaha Nebraska I've had a huge tailwind all my life there never was a better time when more things got fixed more diseases got cured there was more general prosperity and improvement and so on and so on and so on is the future gonna be as easy for the young male born in 2021 I don't think so I think it's gonna be harder i I think you could almost see that coming and you know and so it was accidental we got this terrible hydrogen bomb it's given us some years of peace I mean major piece we have little wars and my father was scarcely out of one war before someone's going off with another and so no I think it's I think it will be tougher in the future and I think be oh I've been like continuously invested in American Enterprise for seventy years and It was a pretty good 70 years I think the averages are up something like 40 times in my adult life that never was such a period before and load and in real inflation-adjusted on course it's not 40 times it's way less because maybe two or three percent per annum is inflation but what are the chances such as some of the real return was seven or eight percent what are the chances that the person who earned today is going to have seven or eight percent growth and no big Wars or troubles for seventy years I'd say they're almost zero now I don't got any reason to despair after all why should you the spare in a world I think if we have a game you can't win anyway we're all going to die and if you can stand that you can stand a little depression or something yeah Jack - Questioner but what about the in a shorter time horizon just a good time to invest in the stock market funny question is it yeah

查理·芒格:

我持续投资美国股票,但我的伯克希尔股票曾三次下跌 50%,这对我来说没什么大不了的,这大概是成年生活的自然结果。所以,如果你有我的心态,那其实并不重要。我一直喜欢吉卜林在《如果》那首诗里的表达,他说:“成功和失败,把这两个骗徒一视同仁。”你就随它去,有时候运气站在你这边,有时候又跟你作对,这都是同一场游戏的一部分。所以我认为,如果你能摆脱那些疯狂的仇恨——我不是说你不避开坏人,我是说你几乎找不到比我更会避开坏人的人了——我觉得那样就挺好,但我并不恨他们。

Charlie Munger well I am continuously invested in American equities and but I've had my Berkshire stock declined by 50% percent three times and I don't doesn't bother me that much just the natural consequence of adult life probably lived so if you have my attitude it doesn't really matter I always like Kipling expressing expression in that poem called called If [Kipling Poem If] and he said “success and failure yes treat those two Impostors just the same” it's just roll with it sometimes it's going for you and so against it's all part of the same game so I think having if you get rid of the crazy hatreds and the crazy I don't mean you don't avoid bad people I mean you will seldom talk to anybody who's better avoiding bad people than I am I am but I think that's okay but I don't hate him

拉里,你知道这事儿让我……好吧,我让你说。

Larry you know this causes me I'm gonna let

查理:但机会总是不缺的。我不认为下一代能像我这样轻松。

Charlie but they're always good I don't think that it's gonna be as easy for the next generation as it was for me

Questioner

I understand

Questioner I understand

查理:杰克,杰克,如果你从头再来一遍,你可能也做不了这么好。我不急着回去再试,你想回去再试吗?不,我们谁都不想。

Charlie Jack Jack if you start all over again you might not do as well either I'm not anxious to go back and try you want to go back to go and try again no we none of us do

杰克

我在某种意义上和你一样非常幸运,实际上我比你还幸运——是的,拉里。

Jack I was very lucky just like you in a sense I was luckier and that's yes Larry

拉里:

不不不,我正要说的意思是,咱们来先弄点小家务事,我们是不是留了时间,或者我们已经跟他聊过,让他在最后回答一些问题?你希望从谁那儿接问题,是你想回答的问题吗?

Larry no no I was gonna say yeah do do a little housekeeping were we reserving some time or have we had we talked with him about taking any questions ultimately from who you'd like to take some questions from the people would you like to ask any questions

查理·芒格

我在伯克希尔的股东大会上经常这么做——有时候问题我不回答,但我会接过来。嗯,你也有同样的自豪感。你的麦克风……你的麦克风很好,这里有他们的麦克风和跑位员——我不确定我们有没有。好了,你必须大声说。有人想提问吗?对不起,请举手,我们会让跑位员过来。好的,请举手,自我介绍。艾伦·问答环节:嗨,我是艾伦,第一次来。嗨,非常感谢你举办这个活动,杰克。这真是个不可思议的机会,能见到你这样的人,真是太棒了。让我印象深刻的是,芒格先生,是你的幽默感——同样还有你合伙人的幽默感,以及你在众人面前的交流风格,尤其是在面对股东时。我的问题是:这是你长期以来培养出来的,还是自然而然地通过你那种朴实无华的讲故事能力,或者是你理解世界的方式形成的?

Charlie Munger I do it at the annual meeting of Berkshire all time look sometimes I don't answer but I take the question yeah well you have the same pride my your mics your good Mike here are their mics and runners not sure if we have them or not okay you have to speak loudly any takers I'm I'm sorry there raise your hand we got ahead of the mic runners okay raise your hand introduce yourself Alan Q&A hi I'm in first Alan hey thank you so much for for doing this Jack this is an incredible opportunity to meet somebody it's just so amazing what what I'm struck by mr. Munger is your is or humor and I'm I'm also struck by your partner's humor and in your style of communication in front of a group especially in front of probably your shareholders my question is is was something that you developed over time or is it something that just sort of happened naturally through your sort of homespun storytelling ability or your ability to understand the world

查理·芒格:

是啊,我觉得沃伦和我很大程度上还是保留了天性。我们俩小时候都有点书呆子气,算不上什么成功少年,但我们都热爱幽默,都喜欢搞懂事情背后的道理。而且我们都很幸运,能吸引到出色的同事和伙伴。所以,如果我们不是生来性格不错,那就太奇怪了。不过,我觉得幽默感这东西,要是你没有,就是学不来的——你是天生的,没错。害羞也一样,多少能克服一点,但说到底,我们都得跟自己天生的性情相处,凑合着过。不过沃伦和我在生意上玩得很开心,我们喜欢自己的生意,喜欢一起共事的人,也喜欢解决问题。这在人生中是一个巨大的优势——如果你真的热爱解决问题,那相当于比别人多出 20 个点的 IQ。

Charlie Munger yeah I think Warren and I are very much the way we were born we were both a bit nerdish and not a huge successes as young boys and but we both had this love of humor and we both loved understanding how things worked and we both have been lucky enough to attract marvelous associates and partners and so if we weren't pretty good natured we'd be crazy and but no it I don't think if you don't have humor I don't think you can get it I think you're born with it that's right and the same with shyness oh you can conquer shyness a little but basically we all live with the nature's we were given and we just have to make do but Warren and I have fun in business and we like our business and we like the people we work with and we like the problem-solving that's a huge advantage in life if you really love problem-solving that's that is worth about 20 IQ points to another

提问者:

直接问您这个问题,谢谢。请大家把手机调成倾听模式,谢谢。现场提问第 2 个——我想请您回顾一下,也许是您早年的事,当时是什么让您真正兴奋起来,让您开始看到自己能做什么、未来可能是什么样子,或者是什么让您特别充满热情,从而走上了这条路——您年轻时最初被什么点燃了?

Questioner question right here thank you introduce your phone to listen to thank you Audience Question #2 I wonder if I could ask you to go back to maybe your s or something of of what got you really excited when you begin seeing what you might do and what your future could be or what you seem to be especially enthusiastic about that led you this down this path what turned you on first young you know you could

查理·芒格:

嗯,我来自一个传统家庭,婚姻幸福,兄弟姐妹都很好,等等。我父母的那些朋友都是非常棒的人,所以我身边全是杰出的人。事实上,我以前常说,在洛杉矶很难找到像我在奥马哈认识的那些人一样出色的人。我小时候的处境非常特别、非常理想,沃伦也是。不过,他年轻时比我更不开心一些,这只是碰巧的事。嗯,我认为这很大程度上是天生的,很大一部分也来自于恰当的培养和良好的背景。我的外公芒格出生时极为贫困,他的父母都是内布拉斯加一个小镇的学校教师,两人的收入只够他每天晚上去肉铺买晚餐用的肉。他住的那个小镇在内布拉斯加,他每次只带五分钱去,买别人都不吃的那些动物部位。如果你从那么穷的起点出发,靠自己的努力打拼出来——我外婆也是这么做的——那你真是个了不起的人。他基本上自学成才,没上过多少学,很早就开始自己闯荡。我的意思是,他自学了希腊语和拉丁语。所以我身边有这样一些很有意思的人作为榜样。我的外公芒格从骨子里就相信理性,并且一直努力践行这一点,我亲眼看着这一切。这对他来说当然很管用:他当上了地方检察官、律师协会会长,最后年纪轻轻就成了一名联邦法官,并在他的首府城市担任了将近 40 年唯一的联邦法官。我的意思是,他过得很精彩,而且他一直保持收入远低于自己的开销水平,在别人需要帮助时伸出援手。这是一个非常好的榜样。而且他对此相当坚定:他一生滴酒不沾。有人问他“为什么不喝酒”时,他说:“为什么要从口袋里掏钱,往嘴里放东西,让我的脑子转得没那么好使?”嗯,你明白我为什么喜欢我的外公了。而且他政治上不正确。当我父母结婚时,他来了,环顾了一下教堂里的宾客,轮到他致辞时,他说:“嗯,我一直觉得,当我在婚礼上看到两边座位坐的是同样的人时,我特别乐观。”好吧,这在政治上不不正确,但这是一种非常可以理解的情感。所以我身边有这些好人,又处在一个非常和平有趣的时代等等。但造就财务成功的,并不是极端的能力。你知道,我的头脑不错,但我远非天才,而我却在生活中取得了非凡的成果。这些成果来自一些技巧——我只是从我的外公那样的人那里学了几招基本技巧。

Charlie Munger well I came from a conventional family happy marriage good siblings etc my parents friends were wonderful people so I had just fabulous people in fact I used to say I have a great trouble in Los Angeles finding people's like as as Fine as the people I used to know in Omaha I had a very unusual desirable situation as a young boy and so did Warren yeah well he was uh more unhappy when he was young than I was and it just it just happened and um I think a lot of it was what was born in a lot of it was was the proper training and proper background my grandfather Munger was uh had been born in extreme poverty his two parents were schoolteachers a little town in Nebraska and two schoolteachers income enabled him to buy the meat for dinner every night at the butcher shop in the little town he lived in Nebraska he went put yourself with a nickel when he bought the parts of the Animal nobody else would eat now if you start life that poor and make your own way which my grandmother did you're quite a fellow and he was self educated in not so much he came to run around early I mean he spoke Greek and Latin self-educated and so I have a very interesting people as my examples and my Grandfather Munger believed down to the soles of his feet and being rational and he worked at it and I watched it of course works well for him it made him district attorney and president of the Bar Association and finally a very young federal judge and he served as the only federal judge in his capital city for almost 40 years I mean he had a splendid life and he always lived way below his income and was able to help other people when they needed help it's a very good example and he was kind of firm about it he never took a drop of liquor and his whole life when somebody asked “why don't you drink” he says “why would I take money out of my pocket and put something in my mouth would make my head work less well” well you can see why I like my grandfather and he was politically incorrect when my parents got married he came he looked around the congregation and he came time for him to make a toast he said well he says I've always particularly optimistic at a wedding when I see the same kind of people on both sides of the aisle well that's not politically correct well it's a very understandable sentiment and so I had these good people around me and and a very interesting time of peace and so forth but what caused the financial success was not extreme ability you know I have a good mind but I I'm way short of prodigy and I've had results in life that are prodigiously and that came from tricks I just learned a few basic tricks from people like my grandfather

提问者:

现在所有人都探过身子来了。

Questioner Now everybody's leaning in

查理·芒格

不,对你们老家伙来说已经太晚了。你们知道,各种小技巧我都是偶然得到的,我这辈子就是这样。我总是在反转思考。我在空军服役时曾是气象预报员,那我怎么处理这个新任务呢?在空军当气象预报员很像读 X 光片的医生——挺孤独的,半夜在机库里,画气象图,给飞行员提供信息,但你不怎么跟一群同龄人打交道。所以我想,我到底是在为真正的飞行员做天气预报,我说:我怎么能害死这些飞行员?哦,这不是大多数人会问的问题,但我想知道,最容易害死他们的方式是什么,这样我就能避开它。于是我想清楚了,反向推导。我发现只有两种方式会让我在飞行指挥部害死飞行员:要么让他们碰上飞机无法应付的结冰,那会要他们的命;要么让他们飞到某个地方,在降落前油尽,因为所有机场都被冻住了。我就疯狂地避免这两种危险。如果科比·布莱恩特有个像我这样的人,他现在还跟我们在一起呢。用那种方式害死自己太愚蠢了。但就这个基本道理——我可能是从我祖父母那里学来的。我祖母会对我祖父说,你去游泳时,她会说:想游多久都行,但要靠近岸边。你们可以笑,但他是个非常聪明的人。

Charlie Munger no it's too late for you old guys yeah the ya know there are all kinds of tricks that I just got into by accident own life one I invert all the time I was a weather forecaster when I was in the Air Corps and how did I handle my new assignment being a weather forecaster in the Air Corps is a lot like being a doctor that reads x-rays it's a pretty solitary you're on the hangar in the middle of the night and growing weather maps and putting pilots but you're not interfacing with a bunch of year for old men very much and so I figured out the man I was actually making weather forecasts for real pilots I said how can I kill these pilots oh that's not the question that most field would ask but I want to know what's the easiest way to kill them would be so I could avoid it and so I thought it through and reverse that way and I find they figured out I said there are only two ways I'm ever gonna get was in the ferry command the right two ways I'm gonna kill pilot until I'm gonna get him into icing his plane can't handle and that will kill him or I'm gonna get him someplace we gonna run out of gas before he can land because all the airports are stuck again and I just was fanatic about avoiding those two hazards and if Kobe Bryant had somebody like me he'll be with us yeah it was so stupid kill kill yourself that way and but just that basic I may have learned that to my grandfather my grandmother would say to him when I'm swimming you'd say swim as long as you want but stay near the shore well but you can laugh but he was a very wise man

杰克

但我听你说的意思是,你把看问题的另一面——即风险——当作一条纪律来遵守,然后避开它,这是你的规则之一。

Jack but what I'm hearing you say is that you as a discipline look at what the risk is on the other side of the situation and you avoid that that's one of the rules

查理·芒格

嗯,这就像代数里很多实际问题:如果你反转一下,就轻松解出来了;如果不反转,就解不出来。所以我很早就掌握了这个技巧。大多数人总是说:你能告诉我们怎么做才能拯救印度、帮助印度吗?当然我会用不同方式来对待:我会说,我能做什么?谁最容易受到伤害?用这种反向方式来处理,我得到了更好的结果。你看的是脆弱点。是的,我有一整套这样的小技巧。我高中和大学都参加过预备役军官训练营,那里教会我迫击炮或火炮的射击方法:一发打远,一发打近,然后正中目标。我从没打过真正的炮弹,但这一技巧我一生都在用。这就是我如何判断尺寸——过和不及,然后击中目标。所以我就有了一袋子技巧,而且我很早就拿到了正确的那一袋,这当然对我帮助极大。我举个例子:我年轻时做律师,有个客户在文明边缘地带有一大片丘陵牧场,离南加州这里不远。爱迪生公司要经过他的地铺设新的地役权,他们已经有了一些地役权。他雇了橙县最好的房地产估价师。他本人认为,这条地役权应该值 25 万美元。而那位权威估价师——非常自负、年纪很大、德高望重——却说:不,对不起,只值 12.5 万美元,你这只是块破牧场。于是客户来找我,说:查理,你能不能让这个老估价师明白点道理?我看了看他的问题,打电话给那位估价师。我想,他这估价错在哪里呢?我不是房地产估价师,他才是。他做的是估价学校教的那一套:用二维方式思考问题,根据可比销售算出每英亩的价值,乘以英亩数,再稍微加一点地役权对剩余地块造成的损害。但这一切都在二维中进行。我对那个估价师说:你必须用三维来考虑问题——上帝给了我们三个维度。我说:如果他们把输电塔(大型输电线路塔,很多年前的)建起来,就会冻住地形。最合理的办法是把它们从山顶拿掉,放在山谷里,这才是丘陵牧场的开发方式。而他们用冻住地形的方式造成了巨大损害。他说:你什么都不会改变。于是我对我的老客户说:我想你得炒掉这个蠢货,我给你雇一个会思考的估价师。结果我帮他拿到了 60 万美元,这根本不费劲,因为我面对的是爱迪生公司里一帮差不多是工程师的人,他们确实用三维思考。你知道,这很简单,但你会惊讶于有多少律师会搞砸这件事——首先是那个估价师。像他那样的人不懂自己的业务,因为他们不注意那些技巧。这种人永远跟我们在一起。只要你掌握了不断回归基本面的技巧,这相当基础。难道你不明白几何问题在三维真实世界中的应用吗?

Charlie Munger Well it's it's just it's it's like a lot of practical problems in algebra if yu invert you can solve it easily if you don't it you can't solve it easily and so of course I had that trick very early and and most you always say how can you please tell us what you do to save India to help India and of course I would approach it differently I'd say what could I do who's the most easily hurt India and approaching it in Reverse that way I got better results you look at the vulnerabilities yeah yes and I have a whole bag of tricks like that I been to the ROTC both in high school in college and the RTC taught me to fire mortar shells or artillery shells one shot over one shot short and then Kapow well I never shot me down shells but I'd be using that metal trick all my life that's why how I determine what size to make something over and under and Kapow and so I just got a bag of tricks and I got the right bag of tricks early and of course it's filling of enormous help to me let me give an example I had a client once when I was a young lawyer and he owned a bunch of hilly ranch land on the edge of civilization not very far from here in Southern California and the Edison Company came through and they wanted a new easement through his land they already had some easements and he hired the leading appraiser an Orange County real estate appraiser and said and he had the idea that he should have $250,000, for this easement from the Edison Company and this leading Appraiser who was very pompous and very old and and very distinguished and he told no I'm sorry it's only $125,000, value and you're a damn ranch and so he came to me and said Charlie can you talk some sense into this elderly appraiser yeah so I looked at his problem when I call the Appraiser well I thought how he's doing is on an appraisal wrong I'm not a real estate appraiser he is and what he had done is what he was taught to do an appraisal school he thought the problem through in two dimensions and he figured out from comparable sales what the value for acre was they computed the acreage and he had something a little bit on the damage the easement would do to the remaining property and so but it's all done in two dimensions and I said to this appraiser you've got to do this in three dimensions you know God gave us three dimensions and I said if they put the utility towers big transmission line towers which is why the years ago it's gonna freeze the grade in the logical way to OB our little hand is still op off the top of the hills and put them in the valley that's the way Kelley land is developed and they're doing enormous damage to you by freezing the grade and he said you wouldn't change a damn thing so I said to my elderly client I think you have to fire this twit and I will hire you an appraiser who can think and so I got him $600,000, which wasn't at all hard because I was dealing with a bunch of almost engineers of the Edison who did think of three dimensions but you know that's so simple but you'd be surprised how many lawyers would screw that one up first him and of course people like that appraiser I didn't know his own business very well because he didn't pay attention of the metals those people are always with us if you just have the metal trick of constantly going back to the basics it's pretty basic in sightless are you conscious about the geometrical problem in a real world of the three-dimensional

拉里

你是自觉在运用这些规则,还是它们就在那里、成了你的习惯?它们对你来说已经如此根深蒂固。我反复琢磨各种可能性,遇到难啃的问题就硬啃,如果解不开,我就回头再来。所以这只是一袋子技巧,让一个并非天才的人也能取得惊人的结果。

Larry are you conscious of the rules or they're just there well it's so habitual with you understand that and I revolve possibilities and I rag problems hard if they don't yield I come back and and so this is just a bag of tricks and it enables a non-prodigious man to get prodigious results

杰克

我记得去年夏天你买下了阿纳达科——一家大型石油公司。是的,你说你刚跟沃伦一起度完周末回来。你描述说你没做所有分析,也没做所有研究,但用了你的那袋子技巧。你飞到奥马哈,跟沃伦一起过周末,打电话给美国银行行长,拿到钱,做成了这笔交易。

Jack remember you last summer you bought Anadarko big oil company yes and you described I think you've just gotten back from being with Warren for the weekend yeah you were describing that you didn't do all the analytics and you didn't do all of the research but you used your bag of tricks and you flew out to Omaha you and Warren spent the weekend you called up the president the bank America got the money made the deal

查理·芒格

不,我没去奥马哈。

Charlie Munger no I didn't go to Omaha

杰克

那你去了哪儿?

Jack where did you go?

查理·芒格

不,不,我们打了电话。

Charlie Munger no no I stay we have a telephone

杰克

好吧,你反正跟沃伦谈过了。但你在大约两天内就成交了,就像——不,等等,什么?

Jack okay you talk to Warren about it anyway yeah but you made it in about two days and it was like no okay what

查理·芒格

沃伦不需要——我们合作了这么久,只要一声咕哝就能说很多话。不,这很明显:二叠纪盆地是我们第一大石油储层,没有第二个类似的了。而且很明显,你有一份优先股,比其他所有人都有优势,还有上行空间。我们以前也做过这种事,所以当然就做了。这并不难。但你说得对,各种分析师做了很多尽职调查,但我们已经知道得足够多,可以行动了,那时他们很着急。是的,但如果你有 90% 的把握,那就是在很多情况下你所能拥有的全部。我看到这些人做尽职调查,他们思维能力越弱,做的尽职调查就越多。当然,这不过是一种寻求安全感的做法,根本不管用。你必须能够快速理解——要明白二叠纪盆地是美国最好的石油储量,那需要多少脑子?那是一层又一层,再一层,你知道,根本没什么可比的。是的,如果你从一家非常值得信赖、人才济济的公司那里拿到 8% 的优先股股息,管理它的那位女性是生产工程师,她很优秀,他们在页岩油上的成绩比别人好。所以这根本不用动脑子——至少如果你不把它搞复杂的话就不用动脑子。但我看到现在美国那些人做杠杆收购,那些公司做所谓的尽职调查,他们会派出大批年轻律师,按高时薪收费,翻遍像 ESRI 这样的公司里所有的采购订单。

Charlie Munger Warren didn't need why am i I've been together so long that just one grunt we can speak of volume and no it's perfectly obvious the Permian Basin is our number one oil reservoir and we don't have another like it and it's perfectly obvious you have a preferred stock that you have an advantage over everybody else and plus an upside and so we've done this kind of thing before too so of course we did it and him and it's not very difficult but you're right all kinds of analyst due diligence some but we knew enough to act they were in a hurry yes but but you don't need perfect if you're % sure that's all you're entitled to in many cases and I see these people doing this due diligence and the weaker they are as thinkers the more diligence they do and of course, it's just a way of a laying an enter in security and of course it doesn't work you've got to be able to do quickly understand the how much brains does it take to know the Permian Basin as America's best oil reserve its layer after layer after layer you know we there is nothing like comparable yes and if you have an eight percent dividend off the top if from a perfectly reputable place of very talented people the woman that runs that is a production engineer she's good and they get better results in that shale than other people and so it's a no brainer at least it's a no brainer if you don't make it hard but I see people if you in America now they do these leveraged buyouts and these firms do what they call due diligence and they will send armies of young lawyers out of high rates per hour riffle through all the purchasing orders in a place like ESRI

杰克

想都别想。

Jack don't even think about it

查理·芒格

不,我不是在想他们做什么。但我的意思是,他们——ESRI 不需要——你根本不用翻采购订单就知道它是个好生意。是的,我认为那些心理上不够安全的人不应该处在决策权的位置上。

Charlie Munger no I'm not thinking about what they but they but my point is they don't ESRI would no you don't have to look through the purchasing orders right to know there's reason good business and yeah I don't think people are that insecure mentally ought to be in positions of decision-making power

拉里

好了,我们还有一个问题。会是什么?最好是个好问题。是个好问题。好吧,自我介绍一下——约书亚·吉莱斯皮——问答环节 #3。你好,我是约书亚·吉莱斯皮。谢谢拉里、杰克、查理都来了。查理,像你一样,我对投资低估资产非常兴奋,但我特别感兴趣的是社会经济地位低的年轻人,他们不打算上大学。那么,你具体会给那个群体什么建议——实用的建议——来改善他们的生活?

Larry okay we got one more question what's it gonna be it better be a good one it's a good one okay introduce yourself Joshua Gillespie – Q&A #3 hello I'm Joshua Gillespie Thank You Larry Jack Charlie for all being here Charlie like you I am very excited about investing in undervalued assets however specifically what I'm interested in is low socio-economic young folks who are not college bound so what specific advice functional advice would you give to that demographic of folk who are looking to better their lives

查理·芒格

嗯,我不认为你光给年轻人一个好的基础,就能指望它像杰克的长茎一样自动发芽。很多人天生就不发芽,所以我的办法是找到那些已经发芽的人,大力施肥。换句话说,沃伦用更精辟的方式表达了这一点——你们可能想象得到——他说我们是把丝绸做成猪耳朵。(笑声)这就是我们的体系。没错,我们不知道怎么把猪耳朵变成丝绸钱包。我可不行。我能把任何钱包变成丝绸,哦,算了吧,变成更好的人。所以学我的招数。但我发现的是,他们要么很快就明白了——几乎是立刻——要么永远也搞不通。我不知道杰克的经历是啥样的,但我可以。他们人挺好的,但他们的想法已经定型了。他们脑子里的东西已经定型了,被编程的方式跟你不同,他们没法接受冠军思维——是的,就算他们隐约觉得你是对的、你很富、他们不富,他们还是觉得自己知道。

Charlie Munger well I don't think you can just give it a good base to the young and just have it automatically sprout like Jacks being stalked a lot of people are just natural non-sprouters and so my technique is to find the people who have the sprouting of them fertilize them greatly and in other words and Warren puts it on more pithy way as you might imagine he says we make soap verses out of silk [Laughter] that's our system that's right we don't know how to turn now I can turn any purse any silk and oh pretty a better person so learn my tricks but what I found there is that they either get it quickly almost instantly or I never get through I don't know what Jack's experience is but I ever okay they're nice people and they're but that they got their foot their thoughts are already there the thoughts they already have this place they've been programmed in a different way than you and they can't accept the championship - yes even if they kind of suspect you're right and you're rich and they're not they still think they know

杰克

嗯,他们被自己的规则或你所谓的招数害了。你恰好是在一个招数丰富的环境里长大的。

Jack well they're victimized by their rules or their tricks as you call them you happen to be brought up in an environment where the tricky and

查理·芒格

人生的一大招数就是摧毁自己最钟爱的想法。我确实在这方面下过功夫。我甚至逐条检查自己最钟爱的想法——看看能不能挑出一条扔掉,你知道的。

Charlie Munger one of the great tricks in life is to destroy your own best loved ideas and and that I worked at I actually go through my best loved ideas the case let's see if I can weed one out you know

杰克

你说的是啥?举个例子。

Jack what are you talking about give me an example

查理·芒格

*自言自语约 30 秒* 嗯,这是个好例子,好例子。但这不算这个例子……呃,我们都……哦,我给你举了个例子,这是个难啃的例子。我们有个高管,他是个好人,非常擅长自己的工作。他是个精算师,是我们内部委员会的成员。他跟我们一起共事,我们认识他的妻子和孩子,我们喜欢这个家伙。他得了恶性癌症,慢慢在等死。我们任由他在那里耗着——日渐衰竭——而他在最后两三周签下的再保险合同糟透了。这是个错误。我再也没犯过第二次。是的,爱你的朋友到这种程度是人之常情,但要对这么亲近的朋友下狠手,很难。

Charlie Munger *musing to himself for ~30 seconds* well that’s a good hello a good example, well that's a very good example but it's not an example of this the we all oh I gave you an example it's a hard one we had an executive in virtue it was a wonderful human being and terribly good at what he does he was an actuary and he was a member of our inner council he was with us we knew his wife and children we loved the guy and he got a nasty cancer and was dying slowly and we just left him there dying and failing and the reinsurance contracts he signed during those last two or three weeks were awful it was a mistake and I've never done it again yeah it's natural to love your friend so much and it's hard to come down on the close friend here and

杰克

这是你的规则,还是你能打破?就像每天早上从同一边下床。当你相信一些东西时——就像你刚才明显跟我表达的两件事:一是你爱这个家伙,二是不想直接把他撤下。所以你让他留在了位置上,他搞砸了。是这个意思吗?

Jack it's in your rules or can you break it's like getting up on the same side of the bed every morning when you believe in something like you obviously are expressing a couple things to me one is that you love this guy and he didn't want to just shut him down so you kept him in place and he screwed up is that the basic message

查理·芒格

是的,我有更高的责任。你知道,我觉得这是一个可以宽恕的罪过。如果说我非得犯点罪,我宁愿犯这个,而不是其他很多种。但这确实是个错误。是的,是个错误。

Charlie Munger yeah I have a higher duty and it was you know it I think it's a forgivable sin you know I'd rather have if I'm gonna have sins I'd rather have this one than a lot of others but it was mistake yes it was a mistake

杰克

或者也许不是。

Jack or maybe not

查理

你知道,这事在李光耀身上也发生过。我非常敬佩这个人。新加坡几十年,他的好朋友犯了一个道德上的不端行为——一个不道德的行为——然后自杀了。遗孀来找亲密朋友说:你知道,在中国文化里,自杀是深重的耻辱,我们能不能掩盖自杀的事实?他说:不行,不能掩盖。他在维护某些标准上要强硬得多。我不知道那是对是错,但我猜他是对的。毕竟他建起了一个国家,而我只建了一个购物中心。

Charlie and you know what that happened to Lee Kuan Yew this guy admire so much, Singapore were so many decades and his best friend and committed some moral act an immoral act and had come to life in and he committed suicide and the wife came to close friends and said you know in Chinese culture it's a deep shame to commit suicide can't we cover up the suicide he said no we can't cover up again he was just tougher on maintaining certain standards I don't know whether that's right or not but I suspect he was right after all he built an empire, you've got a whole nation and all I've done is build one mall

杰克

好的,我想再问几个关于你在加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校的慈善的事。首先,你是怎么——

Jack well I'd like to close with a couple more questions about your own philanthropy at UCSB and first how did you do

查理·芒格

顺便说一句,这真是个绝妙的例子,因为它正好说明了一个情况:我到了这把年纪,这个时间点……

Charlie Munger So that is by the way that's a marvelous example exactly because there's an example say Here I am years old this time

杰克

这位是杨校长。

Jack this is Chancellor Yang

杰克

但我有个朋友,她是多希尼家族最后一位在世孙辈的遗孀。多希尼是加州过去时代的大石油商。这事发生在圣塔芭芭拉——典型的“别在我家后院”心态。她有一个 1800 英亩的牧场,有 2 英里海岸线。没有风,完美的气候,绝佳的景观,鳄梨树。里面还有一个私人湖。简直难以置信。但她卖不出去,因为圣塔芭芭拉没人会公平到允许她处置自己的房产。她真的需要卖掉。所以我说:瞧,我出 7000 万美元给大学,我们用它来买下这个牧场。我知道大学不受那些该死的区划法规限制。于是,我在大约两秒钟内把 7000 万美元变成了价值 10 亿美元的资产。我没有拿到那 10 亿,是大学拿到了。但我喜欢帮助大学,尤其是当我能用 7000 万美元买到价值 10 亿美元的东西时。这有点常识在里面。

Jack but I've got a friend who's the widow of the last surviving grandchild of Doheny major California oilman of a former era and but it's in Santa Barbara the ultimate NIMBYism and she's got an 1800, acre ranch with two miles of frontage on the ocean no wind perfect climate great views avocado trees it has a private lake it's like you can't believe it and she can't sell to anybody because nobody in Santa Barbara's gonna be fair enough to allow her to do any with her own property and she really needed the sell and so I said tough see I said I'll give the University seventy million dollars and and we'll have it we'll buy the ranch with my seventy million dollars well I knew that the university's not subject to the damn sound of our rezoning rules and so I suddenly transformed seventy million dollars into a billion dollars worth of property in about two seconds now I didn't get the billion, the University did but I like helping the university and particularly when I can get a billion dollars for the value for seventy million dollars was a little horse sense and so

杰克

接下来会发生什么?

Jack what's gonna happen

查理·芒格

不是每个人都清楚他们不受那些法规限制。

Charlie Munger Not everybody would have known that they weren't subject to

杰克

大学需要住房。查理看到了这一点——他对大学感兴趣。他看到了这块地。于是他们突然有了为学生建造住房的能力。

Jack the university needs housing Charlie saw that they needed housing he was interested in the university you saw this property and so now they suddenly have the ability to build housing for students

查理·芒格

嗯,是给教职员工和研究生住的。对,没错。但比那更极端。上周,我刚刚获得大学董事会小组委员会批准,在 UCSB 建一栋本科宿舍。这次,我出 90% 的钱,他们借剩下的——3% 左右。但这座宿舍会把 5000 名学生安置在 5 英亩地上,而且会是同类宿舍中全世界最好的。一个 95 岁、对住房几乎一窍不通的老头,怎么突然就能说:“我们把 5000 人放在 5 英亩地上,它会成为全世界最好的宿舍”?嗯,我建过其他房子,我并没有看起来那么无知。我意识到:我只需要建一个大的方形建筑,10 层高,顶部两层是某种天空艺术小镇,视野开阔,可以看到外面的世界,天花板很高。然后剩下的部分采用船舶建筑形式。底层 7 层用预制混凝土盖在浇筑混凝土基础上,顶部用巴特勒钢结构——就是 Costco 用它来盖店的那种,只要允许它就能用。等我算出来,这招灵得惊人。这栋楼里的每一样花招,我都在别处用过。我只是从工具袋里把花招组装起来了。听起来很可笑。

Charlie Munger it's a well it'll be faculty and graduate students yeah and yeah but it's more extreme than that I'm also I just got approved last week by the subcommittee of the Regents to build a dormitory for undergraduates at UCSB in this case I'm gonna give them percent of the money and they're gonna borrow the rest the three percent or something like that and but this housing is going to put five thousand students on five acres and the housing will be the best of its kind in the world how in the hell can some ninety five year old guy doesn't know anything to speak of about housing suddenly be right when he says we'll put 5,000, people on five acres and it'll be the best housing in the world well but I've built other housing I'm not quite as ignorant as I look and and I realized that all I had to do was to make a big square building which is 10 stories high under both the top story to being a sort of an art town on the sky with great views looking out at the world with high ceilings and so forth and then adopt ship architecture for the rest of the thing and build it out of precast concrete for the first seven floors on poured concrete foundation and then build the top floor out of Butler steel components which is what Costco uses to build its stores its stores wherever it's allowed to do it and when i work that out it it works like gangbusters it can't Pawn every trick in this building I've already done somewhere else I just assembled a trick out of a bag of tools it sounds ridiculous

杰克

我听着一点都不可笑。听起来是你把慈善的东西拼在一起,让它真正变成了现实。

Jack It doesn't sound ridiculous to me it sounds like you're philanthropic put all the stuff together to actually make it real

查理·芒格

有意思的是那个思维花招。为什么一个平均智商 160、除了思考未来啥也不干的大学,做不到……哦对了,我还做过一件事。

Charlie Munger it's the mental trick that's interesting why can't a university with an IQ average of 160 and nothing to do but think about its future oh one thing else I did

杰克

你的意思是,为什么他们自己做不到?

Jack why can't they do that on your own is what's your saying

查理·芒格

为什么大学这么蠢?这是个非常重要的问题。它们不是什么都蠢——只是在几个盲点上蠢。其中一个盲点是:它们把地用完了。现在,一所伟大的大学,在最伟大的国家里最伟大的州,怎么他妈的能把地用完,还以为自己是一所理性的大学?加州大学洛杉矶分校把地用完了,伯克利把地用完了。这些地方聪明绝顶,拿诺贝尔奖等等,怎么蠢到把地用完了?答案是:它们有那些该死的官僚机构,房间里必须有一个成年人。如果你是加州大学洛杉矶分校,把地用完了——这不是一丁点疯狂。我祖父基本上认为:比“不得不聪明”还要笨,是有罪的。我部分赞同。你不能移除的东西,我觉得可以宽恕。但自己脑子里有轻易就能移除的无知,那才是真蠢。那是真的会发生。你们这些人都会活着看到它。在陆地上建船舶建筑——这题目有多难?

Charlie Munger why are the universities so stupid that's a very important question and they're not stupid about everything they just have a few blind spots and one of the blind spots is they run out of land now how can a great University and the most important state in the most important country in the world how the hell can you run out of land and think you're being a rational University? UCLA has run out of land Berkeley has run out of land How could places so massively brilliant they win Nobel Prizes and so forth he's stupid enough to run out of land the answer is they get these damn bureaucracies and somebody has to be the adult in the room who it's not a mild bit of craziness to run out of land if you’re UCLA well my grandfather would say that he basically thought it was sinful to be dumber than you had to be and I share some of that what you can't remove I think it's forgivable, to have an easily removable ignorance in your own head is really stupid that is really gonna happen you you people are all gonna live to see it and building ship architecture on land how hard the subject is that

杰克

我看过图纸。真的很巧妙。每个学生都能看到海景。

Jack I've seen the plans they're really so clever for students to live in views for every student to the ocean

查理·芒格

好吧,我来告诉你们,这是最后一件事。那些智商 160 的伟大人物都在干什么呢?加州大学系统受建筑规范约束,要多占 20 平方英尺的空间,20 平方英尺,好让每个学生有自己的私人睡眠区。20 平方英尺,你能想到比这更蠢的事吗?建造一栋能用 200 年的宿舍,却硬要把一群互不相干的人塞在一起,让他们互相呕吐——天知道还会干出什么事——就为了省那 20 平方英尺?额外多花 20 平方英尺的成本?这简直疯了。所以,当我进入校董委员会时,我让每个学生都有了单间。当时有一位和蔼的女士,她说,你知道吗,我整个大学生涯从来没有住过单间,总得和别人挤在一起。这太疯狂了,绝对疯狂。我在纠正这一点,但为什么之前一直没人纠正?

Charlie Munger well let me tell you here it's the final one what's these great 160 IQ people do it takes 20 extra square feet of space under the building code that binds a university in California the UC system, 20 extra square feet to give a student his own private sleeping area 20 extra square feet can you think of anything dumber than building housing that's gonna last 200 years when you force a whole bunch unrelated people to live together and throw up on one other and god knows what to save twenty extra square the incremental cost of 20 extra it's insane so I gave every student his own room when I went into the Regents committee there was this nice woman and she said you know she's I never had a single room my whole college career that didn’t have somebody else in it it's insane it's absolutely insane and I'm fixing it but why wasn't it already fixed where

杰克

你是学过建筑学还是怎么?你是怎么想到这些的?

Jack did you study architecture or how did you come to all of them

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嗯,我不想在像你这样追求完美的人面前承认,但我挑的都是简单问题。改宿舍很容易解决。其他人太蠢了,他们硬把两个不相干的人塞进同一个房间,而只要多 20 平方英尺就能消除这个缺陷。所以我专挑简单的问题。我试过难的问题,那要费劲得多。好吧。

Charlie Munger well I hate to admit this to somebody like use of perfectionist but I pick easy problems it's easy to fix housing minutes other people are so dumb they put two unrelated people in the same room when it takes twenty extras square feet to eliminate that defect so I seek out easy problems I've tried hard Problems it's makes it a lot more difficult okay

杰克

我还有一个最后的问题。嗯,你早年间是不是买过喜诗糖果?

Jack I got one final one yeah early didn't you buy See's candy

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是的,我当然买过。我为什么这么做?我的意思是,有人猜得出原因吗?我做这事……嗯,这里我想坦白一件事,这会让你们备受鼓舞,因为它能说明我们年轻时有多蠢,以及我们差一点就没买成。当时的价格是 3500 万美元,他们有 1000 万美元的闲置现金,并且每年盈利 400 万美元,所以一点都不贵。这是一个标志性品牌,是由一位 70 岁才创立公司的女性打造的,故事非常有趣。到最后,我们之间只差 10 万美元。沃伦习惯说,“见鬼,你知道,我出 20 又 1/8 美元,我的意思是,不是 20.25 美元。”我们差点就没买成,我也不愿意让步。我们勉强通过了。我们做了一个极其明智的决定,因为我们仅仅是刚好足够聪明,去做出一个显而易见的选择。这也教会我们另一个道理:我们一开始都是愚蠢的,而保持理性非常困难,你必须不断努力。伯克希尔今天如果只由我和沃伦起步时那点知识来经营,那早就完蛋了。我们只是不断在学习。而且我认为,如果我们没买喜诗糖果,我们现在就不会拥有那么多可口可乐的股票。你明白我的意思吗?买下喜诗糖果,并且克服了那点头脑不清,带来了巨大的后续影响。通过我们典型的……嗯……一本正经的商业方法,发生了后来的事。在这件事上,我和沃伦都不该得到任何真正的功劳。功劳属于我的合伙人。我一生都有极好的合伙人。那是一位石油工程师,他直接对我们说:“你们这些家伙全搞错了。这是一家了不起的公司,你们太斤斤计较了。这样的公司没几家。”他改变了我们的想法。所以现在你们知道了,我们当初是怎么勉强足够聪明地买下喜诗糖果的。答案就是:勉强。

Charlie Munger yes I certainly do that why did I do it I mean yeah anybody got a guess something that was a I did it well here I want to confess something that will give you all encouragement because it will show how dumb we all were when they were young and how we barely bought it the price was thirty-five billion dollars and they had ten million in surplus cash and they're making four million dollars a year so hardly expensive and it was this iconic brand and that been created by a woman that was 70 years old when she founded the company very interesting story and at the very end we were above a hundred thousand dollars apart and Warren was used to saying goddammit you know I'll bid 20 and 1/8 I don't mean a quarter and we just almost didn't buy it and I would not we just squeaked through we made a wonderful decision because we were just barely smart enough to make a no-brainer and that teaches another lesson to: we all start out stupid and we all have a hard time staying sensible You have to keep working at it Berkshire would be a wreck today if it were run by what Warren and I knew when we started its just we kept learning and I don't think we'd have all the billions of stock of Coca-Cola we now have if we hadn't bought See's you know I mean there were huge consequences of getting over that less stupidity we through our typical yeah firm businesslike methods and what happened there neither Warren nor I deserve any real credit for my partner. I had wonderful partners all my life it was a petroleum engineer he just said to warn me you guys are all wrong on this he says this is a wonderful company and you're being way too chancy there aren't many companies like this and that he changed our minds so now you know how we were smart enough to buy See's barely okay the answer is barely

杰克

你对我说过……好吧,这是我的最后一个问题。

Jack You said to me in ok this is my last

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顺便说一句,我们现在更聪明了。我很高兴。但我也很高兴大家都能意识到这一点。

Charlie Munger by the way we're smarter now I'm glad but I'm glad everybody appreciates

杰克

是的是的。你对我说过关于“走高路”的话。

Jack yeah yeah you said to me something about the high road

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哦,那是沃伦的名言。我很喜欢这句。我敢肯定沃伦总是说:“你永远应该走高路,因为那条路人更少。”

Charlie Munger oh that's Warren's famous remark I love that I sure that Warren always says you should always take the high road cuz it's less crowded

杰克

我们到此结束。女士们先生们,谢谢大家。[掌声] 谢谢。

Jack we'll close without ladies and gentlemen thank you for being [Applause] Thank you