不能让保尔森获得空白支票

2008 · 专栏 · 原文约 756 词
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汉克·保尔森 7000 亿美元的救援计划在国会山遇阻。这理所应当:该计划考虑不周。如果国会给财政部长开一张空白支票,那就是在放弃自己的职责。提交给国会的法案措辞中,甚至包含条款要免除财政部长的决策接受任何法院或行政机构的审查——这无疑是布什政府单一行政长官梦想的终极体现。

Hank Paulson’s $700bn rescue package has run into difficulty on Capitol Hill. Rightly so: it was ill-conceived. Congress would be abdicating its responsibility if it gave the Treasury secretary a blank check. The bill submitted to Congress even had language in it that would exempt the secretary’s decisions from review by any court or administrative agency – the ultimate fulfillment of the Bush administration’s dream of a unitary executive.

保尔森先生的所作所为不足以让人放心把 7000 亿美元交他全权处置。上周他的动作直接引发了危机,才让救援变得迫在眉睫。周一他放任雷曼兄弟倒闭,拒绝动用政府资金拯救 AIG。到了周二,他不得不改弦更张,给 AIG 提供了 850 亿美元的惩罚性贷款。雷曼倒闭搅乱了商业票据市场,一家大型货币市场基金“跌破面值”,那些依赖商业票据市场融资的投资银行,运营资金都出了问题。到了周四,货币市场基金全面遭遇挤兑,我们经历了一场自 1930 年代以来最接近崩溃的时刻。保尔森先生又一次掉头,提出了系统性的救援方案。

Mr Paulson’s record does not inspire the confidence necessary to give him discretion over $700bn. His actions last week brought on the crisis that makes rescue necessary. On Monday he allowed Lehman Brothers to fail and refused to make government funds available to save AIG. By Tuesday he had to reverse himself and provide an $85bn loan to AIG on punitive terms. The demise of Lehman disrupted the commercial paper market. A large money market fund “broke the buck” and investment banks that relied on the commercial paper market had difficulty financing their operations. By Thursday a run on money market funds was in full swing and we came as close to a meltdown as at any time since the 1930s. Mr Paulson reversed again and proposed a systemic rescue.

保尔森先生曾从国会拿到过一张空白支票,那一次是为了处理房利美和房地美。他的解决方案让住房市场陷入了最糟糕的局面:两家公司的管理层知道,一旦这张空白支票被填上,他们就会丢掉饭碗,于是他们收缩业务,让按揭贷款更贵、更难获取。几周之内,市场就迫使保尔森先生出手,他不得不接管了这两家公司。

Mr Paulson had got a blank check from Congress once before. That was to deal with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. His solution landed the housing market in the worst of all worlds: their managements knew that if the blank checks were filled out they would lose their jobs, so they retrenched and made mortgages more expensive and less available. Within a few weeks the market forced Mr Paulson’s hand and he had to take them over.

保尔森先生关于购买困境抵押贷款相关证券的提案,暴露了一个经典的信息不对称问题。这些证券难以估值,但卖方比买方更了解它们:在任何拍卖过程中,财政部最终都会拿到最差的货色。该提案还充斥着潜在的利益冲突问题。除非财政部为这些证券支付过高的价格,否则该方案无法带来缓解。但如果该方案被用来救助资不抵债的银行,纳税人又能得到什么回报呢?

Mr Paulson’s proposal to purchase distressed mortgage-related securities poses a classic problem of asymmetric information. The securities are hard to value but the sellers know more about them than the buyer: in any auction process the Treasury would end up with the dregs. The proposal is also rife with latent conflict of interest issues. Unless the Treasury overpays for the securities, the scheme would not bring relief. But if the scheme is used to bail out insolvent banks, what will the taxpayers get in return?

巴拉克·奥巴马提出了四项应当实施的条件:纳税人既要承担风险也应分享收益;设立两党监督委员会管理救助过程;既要救助房贷持有人也要救助购房者;对接受纳税人资金者的薪酬设置限制。这些原则方向正确。若通过直接注资那些受问题证券拖累的机构,而非剥离其问题证券,这些原则能更有效地落实。

Barack Obama has outlined four conditions that ought to be imposed: an upside for the taxpayers as well as a downside; a bipartisan board to oversee the process; help for the homeowners as well as the holders of the mortgages; and some limits on the compensation of those who benefit from taxpayers’ money. These are the right principles. They could be applied more effectively by capitalising the institutions that are burdened by distressed securities directly rather than by relieving them of the distressed securities.

如果用在了股权而非资产负债表上,政府资金的注入就不会带来那么多问题。700 亿美元的优先股附带认股权证,或许足以填补房地产泡沫破裂造成的窟窿。相比之下,在一个 11 万亿美元的市场需求端增加 700 亿美元,可能不足以阻止房价下跌。

The injection of government funds would be much less problematic if it were applied to the equity rather than the balance sheet. $700bn in preferred stock with warrants may be sufficient to make up the hole created by the bursting of the housing bubble. By contrast, the addition of $700bn on the demand side of an $11,000bn market may not be sufficient to arrest the decline of housing prices.

供给端也需要采取行动。为防止房价过度下跌,房屋止赎数量必须控制在最低水平。抵押贷款条款需要根据房主的还款能力进行调整。

Something also needs to be done on the supply side. To prevent housing prices from overshooting on the downside, the number of foreclosures has to be kept to a minimum. The terms of mortgages need to be adjusted to the homeowners’ ability to pay.

救援方案没能完成这项任务。进行必要的修改是一项微妙的工作,而许多抵押贷款被切割并重新打包成担保债务凭证(CDO)的形式,使这一工作更加困难。不同层级债券的持有者利益相互冲突。要把这些冲突理清楚,再在救援方案中加入抵押贷款修改机制,时间上根本来不及。不过,方案可以通过修改与主要住宅相关的破产法,为后续工作铺平道路。

The rescue package leaves this task undone. Making the necessary modifications is a delicate task rendered more difficult by the fact that many mortgages have been sliced up and repackaged in the form of collateralised debt obligations. The holders of the various slices have conflicting interests. It would take too long to work out the conflicts to include a mortgage modification scheme in the rescue package. The package can, however, prepare the ground by modifying bankruptcy law as it relates to principal residences.

既然危机已经爆发,大规模救援计划很可能必不可少,才能控制住局面。重建银行系统耗尽的资产负债表是正确方向。并非每家银行都值得拯救,但在适当监管下,可以信赖美联储的专家做出正确判断。不愿接受过去错误后果的管理层,可以通过剥夺其美联储信贷便利来加以惩罚。提供政府资金还应鼓励私营部门参与银行体系资本重组,从而终结这场金融危机。

Now that the crisis has been unleashed a large-scale rescue package is probably indispensable to bring it under control. Rebuilding the depleted balance sheets of the banking system is the right way to go. Not every bank deserves to be saved, but the experts at the Federal Reserve, with proper supervision, can be counted on to make the right judgments. Managements that are reluctant to accept the consequences of past mistakes could be penalised by depriving them of the Fed’s credit facilities. Making government funds available should also encourage the private sector to participate in recapitalising the banking sector and bringing the financial crisis to a close.

作者是索罗斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management)的董事长。

The writer is chair of Soros Fund Management.