市场如何？

1999 (explicit) · memo · 原文约 1194 词

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Memo to:

Oaktree Clients

From:

Howard Marks

Re:

市场行情如何？

How's the Market?

4 月 5 日不过是市场上又一个平常的日子，涨幅可观，纪录被刷新。《华尔街日报》4 月 6 日关于这一天的报道也稀松平常，与这轮牛市里已经写过的成百上千篇报道并无二致。但让我触动的是，它只用寥寥几段就把正在发生的一切完整地讲了出来。

又是平常一天——表面上，股票市场的总体数字仍然相当亮眼，道琼斯指数上涨 175 点，涨幅 1.8%，创下新高。标普 500 指数上涨 2.1%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨 2.7%。

April 5 was just another ordinary day in the market, with big gains achieved and records broken. The Wall Street Journal article about it on April 6 was ordinary too, like hundreds that have been written in this bull market. I was struck, though, by the way it told in just a few paragraphs the whole story of what's been going on. Just another day - On the surface, the aggregate stock market numbers continued to be very positive, with the Dow up 175 points, or 1.8%, to a new record. The S&P 500 was up 2.1% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 2.7%. U

然而，即便在这涨幅一片大好的日子里，参与面依然相对狭窄。下跌的股票（1318 只）与上涨的（1695 只）几乎一样多。而且，创下 52 周新低的股票（81 只）比创下新高的（73 只）还要多。

这让我想起市场对少数几只股票的依赖：今年第一季度，标普 500 指数 5% 的涨幅全部由 18 只股票贡献（没错，其他 482 只股票的平均收益为零）。标普指数中 55% 的股票在亏钱，追踪二线股票的罗素 2000 指数下跌了 5.4%。

Even on this day of huge aggregate gains, however, participation was still relatively narrow. Almost as many stocks were down (1,318) as up (1,695). Moreover, more stocks set new 52-week lows (81) than set new highs (73). This reminded me about the reliance of the market on just a few issues: In the first quarter of this year, 18 stocks accounted for all of the 5% rise in the S&P 500, (that's right, the other 482 stocks averaged a zero return). 55% of the stocks in the S&P lost money, and the Russell 2000 index of second tier stocks declined 5.4%. U

跟随领头羊——因此，正如大家所知，领导地位继续集中在少数几只股票上。雅虎当日上涨 22%，亚马逊上涨 9%。尽管 IBM 上涨 4%，但被美国在线所掩盖，后者上涨 11%，并首次成为两家公司中市值更高的一家。

Follow the leader -- So the leadership continued to be concentrated, as everyone knows, in just a few stocks. Yahoo gained 22% on the day, and Amazon.com was up 9%. Although IBM rose 4%, it was overshadowed by America Online, which gained 11% and became the more valuable of the two companies for the first time.

那一日，《纽约时报》刊登了一篇渲染互联网狂热的文章，报道了……上周 Priceline.com 的首次公开发行，该公司让客户在网上自行给机票定价。开业不到一年，卖出 350 万美元的机票，却亏损了 1.14 亿美元，而 Priceline.com 的估值却高达 100 亿美元，超过 UAL 旗下联合航空、西北航空和大陆航空的净资产总和。对估值漠不关心——那篇全文看涨的文章，长达 22 栏英寸，却只字未提市盈率、EBITDA 倍数或股息率等估值指标。说到底，当今市场上有许多定价的投资者根本不在乎估值。我完全没有感觉到那些分析师和基金经理……

Illustrating the mania for things Internet, an article in the next day's New York Times reported on . . . . . . last week's initial offering of Priceline.com, which allows customers to name their own price for airline tickets on the Web. After less than a year in business, during which it lost $114 million selling $35 million worth of tickets, Priceline.com is valued at $10 billion, more than the combined net worth of UAL's United Airlines, Northwest Airlines and Continental Airlines. Indifference to valuation - The entire bullish article - 22 column inches long - omitted all mention of valuation parameters such as P/E ratio, EBITDA multiple or dividend yield. The bottom line is that many of the investors setting the prices in today's market don't care about valuation. I get no sense at all that the analysts and portfolio managers U

1999 年橡树资本管理有限合伙公司

1999 Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.

看好大盘成长股和互联网热门股的投资者，能想象到它们沦为“持有”甚至（老天爷保佑）“卖出”评级的价位。

从乐观一面看——牢牢掌控局势的多头们——已携手媒体，把一切解读得积极向上。读到文章里描述投资者对 4 月 2 日就业数据反应的那段，我忍不住笑了：

backing the large-cap growth stocks and Internet high flyers can imagine prices at which they would be mere "holds" or (heaven forbid) "sells." Looking on the bright side - The bulls - who are firmly in control - have joined with the media to interpret things in a positive light. I got a chuckle out of the article's description of investor reaction to the jobs data released on April 2:

这些数据显示了低失业率，这对消费支出有利；工资增长缓慢，暗示通胀疲软；就业创造温和，表明经济在增长但未过热。

我敢肯定，换一个时代或环境，报道就会变成这样：

这些数据显示了低失业率，这带来了通胀再度抬头的威胁；工资增长缓慢，暗示经济疲软；就业创造温和，预示消费支出不振。

当然，经济形势总是可以有多种解读。上面那段话让我想起档案里一幅堪称经典的漫画：

Those showed low unemployment, which was good for consumer spending; low wage increases, which implies weak inflation; and mild job creation, which implies a growing but not overheating economy. I'm sure that in other times and climes, it would have come out this way instead: Those showed low unemployment, which carries a threat of renewed inflation; low wage increases, which implies an anemic economy; and mild job creation, which presages weak consumer spending. Of course, economic developments are always subject to varying interpretation. The above passage sent me to the archives for one of the absolute classic cartoons:

“On Wall Street today, news of lower interest rates sent the stock market up, but then the expectation that these rates would be inflationary sent the market down, until the realization that lower rates might stimulate the sluggish economy pushed the market up, before it ultimately went down on fears that an overheated economy would lead to a reimposition of higher interest rates." Drawing by Mankoff: @ 1981 The New Yorker Magazine, Inc.

1999 年橡树资本管理有限合伙

1999 Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.

各方皆有所获（但真正的争辩甚少）——正如文章所述，

Something for everyone (but little genuine debate) -- As the article reported,

富国资本上周建议客户将资金从债券转入股票，持仓比例从 65% 股票和 35% 债券调整为 70% 股票和 30% 债券……与富国资本的做法相反，贝尔斯登则建议客户将投资组合中股票占比从 60% 降至 55%，把资金转入短期现金账户。

至于我，我确信其中一方将被证明是对的。

根基薄弱——这篇文章反映出多头们对某些东西的执念，这些东西在基本面上其实无关紧要……

Wells Capital last week urged clients to move money into stocks from bonds, shifting holdings to 70% stocks and 30% bonds, from 65% and 35% . . . Taking the opposite approach to Wells Capital, . . . Bear Stearns urged clients to cut their stock exposure to 55% from 60% of their portfolio, moving the money into short-term cash accounts. As for me, I'm certain one of them will be proved right. Weak underpinnings - The article reflected the bulls' preoccupation with things that either don't really matter in any fundamental sense . . . U

……人们正在买车，正在买房，正在花钱……我认为市场仍然顺风而行。

……或者说，对长期价值毫无提及：

今天的传闻是，网络公司的盈利将非常强劲。

胡言乱语——最后，有些情况完全说不通。

. . . people are buying cars, they are buying houses, they are spending money. . . I think the wind is still at the market's back. . . . or say absolutely nothing about long-term value: The whisper today was that the online firms are going to have very strong earnings. Gobbledegook -- Lastly, some of what's going on just makes no sense at all.

人们对盈利预期能够实现感到非常放心，但市场的期待远不止于此。

我不清楚这具体意味着什么，但我确信这会让指数上涨几百点。

People are very comfortable that the earnings projections are going to be hit, but the expectations are higher than that. I have no idea what that means, but I'm sure it'll be good for a few hundred points on the indices.

喧嚣与愤怒，到头来一场空。我在写的那篇文章里、媒体总体上，都说了不少话，但真正有见地的不多。钱确实赚了不少，但大部分落入了少数最为乐观和激进的投资者手里。

多年来，“理性”的价值投资者一直在抨击市场的过度行为——我自己也不例外。我从未像现在这样，深刻体会上世纪 70 年代学到的那句话：“过于领先于时代，与犯错难以区分。”不过，正如人们所说，“这是我的故事，我坚持到底。”

Lots of sound and fury, signifying nothing. There's a lot said, in the article I'm writing about and in the media generally, but not a lot of insight. And a lot of money being made, but most of it by the few most optimistic and aggressive investors. The "rational" value investors have been decrying the excesses of the market for years – myself included. I've never felt more strongly the truth of the saying I picked up in the 1970s: "being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong." But as they say, "that's my story and I'm stickin' with it."

April 15, 1999

1999 年橡树资本管理有限合伙公司

1999 Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.

又及：4 月 9 日《华尔街日报》的另一篇报道同样能说明那个时代，只是角度换了个面。它讲的不是少数网络股的大获成功，而是一家名字里没有“.com”的更典型公司的坎坷遭遇。

文章讲的是计算机外包服务公司（Computer Outsourcing Services, Inc.）。自上市六年以来，其营收增长了两倍，利润翻了四倍。但它的股价只涨了 60%，还不到同期纳斯达克综合指数涨幅的四分之一。

在截至 1999 年 1 月 31 日的季度里，利润增长了 14%，营收也有类似增幅。可结果呢，计算机外包公司的股价今年以来反而下跌了 23%，而纳斯达克指数同期上涨了 17%。

后果便是：招不到想要飙升股票期权的那种“神童”人才，收购要约难以被人认真对待，首席执行官也灰心丧气。让我们问问他：“市场行情怎么样？”

P.s.: Another Journal story on April 9 was equally illustrative of the times, but with regard to the flip side. Rather than describe the great success of the few on-line stocks, it recounted the tribulations of a more typical company without ".com" in its name. It told the story of Computer Outsourcing Services, Inc. In the six years since it went public, its revenues have tripled and its earnings have quadrupled. But its stock has risen only 60%, less than a fourth of the gain in the Nasdaq Composite over that period. In the quarter ended January 31, 1999, earnings rose 14% on a similar gain in revenues. In response, Computer Outsourcing's stock was down 23% for the year to date, versus a 17% rise for the Nasdaq index. The result: difficulty in hiring "whiz kids" who want options on a soaring stock, trouble having acquisition bids taken seriously, and a dispirited CEO. Let's ask him "How's the market?"

1999 年，橡树资本管理有限合伙企业（Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.）

1999 Oaktree Capital Management, L.P.