美国迎来250周年之际我对7月4日的反思

My Reflections on July 4th as America Turns 250

Ray Dalio, 2026-07-06

Originally shared on July 4th

I love everything about the 4th of July, and the 250th anniversary is especially great for me because I am joining with family and friends for a reading of the Declaration of Independence, a BBQ, and fireworks.

As I reflect on what has happened over the 250 years that followed July 4th, 1776, it seems like an impossible dream come true. Think about it. Imagine that at the outset on July 4th, 1776, you were asked what odds for success a country would have if it would be mostly made up of poor immigrants coming from all different countries with very different cultures and religions and it would be governed by a political system in which the leaders reported to these people who themselves had to vote, compromise, and submit to life-changing decisions that many disagreed with. Would you bet that it would do exceptionally well and improve for 250 years? I would have thought that virtually impossible, yet America has been exceptional for 250 years.

I also see that it was shockingly terrific and lucky for me to have lived through the best part of those 250 years because I was born four years after the 1945 post-World War II beginning of the new American world order, which gave me the best time in history in the best place in the world.

These reflections give me a deep appreciation for the principles and practices—the secret sauce—that created and sustained this remarkable American story, a fear that we are losing sight of them, and a sense of responsibility to contribute to sustaining them.

Added on July 6th

I wanted to expand on the thinking I expressed on July 4th when I talked about the remarkable secret sauce that produced the exceptional success that the United States has had over the last 250 years. It consisted of bringing together 1) a mixture of relatively poor, hardworking immigrant people with their diverse cultures who one might have thought would have clashed but instead worked well together, 2) an exceptional amount of freedom that one might have thought would have caused disorder and breakup but instead led to a chaotic, rapid evolution, and 3) a democratic federalist government system in which the masses ruled over the leaders that one might have thought would have led to constant fighting and political stalemates but instead led to compromises and rule-following even when many thought the decisions were wrong and against their interests.

Rather than believing that the United States is intrinsically successful, I believe that it, like all successful countries throughout history, has been successful because of the causes (i.e. its secret sauce) that brought about its success and that there is a high risk of losing sight of those causes and the success they brought about. From studying history, I’ve learned that while there were many secret sauces that have worked, those that worked best for all countries throughout history have three essential ingredients: 1) educating children well so that when they grow into adults they have what it takes to be productive and the civility to be good with each other so that they can be collectively successful and share the rewards of their success, 2) having a good total system for government that consists of an effective political system, an effective legal/governance system, and an effective money/economic system that benefits most of its people who appreciate and support the system, and 3) staying out of wars--both civil and international--that are big enough to ruin the country, or winning them. I have been a great beneficiary of experiencing those things and admire all countries that have them because they are the most fundamental ingredients for most countries’ and most of their peoples’ successes. At the same time, I find that by my objective indicators (see my Country Power Index), the United States is weakening in some key ways.

I am worried for the United States because it is losing sight of the principles that have worked so well for most Americans and that have bound Americans together. I don’t believe that it can be taken for granted that the United States won’t decline the way many other great countries have declined. I believe that to succeed, Americans need to reflect deeply on what works and look at the KPIs objectively.

While we can objectively measure what each country is doing well and doing poorly, with or without looking at these measures, few people would disagree that the American public education system is broken, the public healthcare system is broken, and the government, which is responsible for managing these things, is broken. At the same time, it is equally obvious that the capitalist private market money/economic system has led to investments and creativity that have created great productivity-improving innovations that have led to big increases in wealth and power, particularly for the top 10 percent of the population who can afford to bypass the troubled public education system, the public healthcare system, and other government administered systems while those in the bottom 60% are by and large falling behind in the quality of their education, their healthcare, and their housing because of relatively low gains in their productivity, their real incomes, and their real wealth, so they are not happy with how things are going for them. Isn’t it obvious that, as a result, there are irreconcilable differences between those who are doing well and those who aren’t, and their willingness to compromise is falling while their willingness to fight the other side is increasing? So, while the system as a whole is productive and the aggregate numbers look pretty good, the disparities are dangerously large and causing an emerging great conflict.

I don’t see solutions being brought forward by the increasingly extreme sides. It’s hard to believe that having the already ineffective government run by idealistic, impractical leftists who haven’t built, run, or made anything productive (look at their individual and collective track records) will work well. At the same time, it’s also hard to believe in the success of a government run by private market capitalists who have shown little inclination to provide the previously mentioned necessities to the majority so that they can be productive, prosperous members of the system who support it.

If we could agree on these seemingly obvious truths, we could at least agree that it certainly can’t be the no track record hard left that is now trying to take over the Democratic Party that will lead the United States to a successful future, just as it is hard to believe that a government led by the self-interested, hard-right capitalists who have no experience, understanding, or track-records of helping those who are failing will lead to success.

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It also seems to me obvious that a big fight between these two sides, especially if it leads to the abandonment of or fighting over the rules and governance system (for example, not accepting election results or trying to politically “assassinate the king” by impeaching and charging President Trump with corruption) will increase the conflict. I would assume that most people on both sides can agree that there is an uncomfortably high probability of that happening.

For these reasons, it seems to me that there is only one possible path forward that will require two important things to happen. Since the fighting between those on both sides of the political spectrum and the abandonment of their compromising and rule-following will produce much more harm than good, the United States needs a strong leader of the middle to bring people together and to make necessary, unpopular reforms that make the system work well so there is broad-based productivity and prosperity. That seems like a long shot. Another long-shot possibility is that both a) AI will be so hugely productivity enhancing and will not produce a bubble that will lead to a bust that will economically hurt many people, and b) that there is good enough political leadership and cooperation to distribute the benefits of these AI-based productivity gains to the satisfaction of most people. Hopefully, capable Americans will rise above their individual interests and work together to run things well for most people. Since there has never been more income, wealth, and intelligence in the world, this certainly is a possibility.

In closing, I want to reiterate that I’m not political. I’m just a hyper-realistic guy who has spent most of my life distinguishing what works and what doesn’t in order to bet on the winners and avoid the losers and I’m passing along how I see things with the hope that it’s of some use.