CNBC访谈实录——斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒与凯莉·埃文斯

2017 · 访谈 · 原文约 3192 词
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时间今天,2017 年 12 月 12 日,星期二

地点:CNBC 的《收盘钟声》节目

WHENToday, Tuesday, December 12, 2017

WHERE: CNBC's "Closing Bell"

以下是 CNBC 独家专访杜肯资本管理公司前董事长、总裁兼创始人斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒与 CNBC 的凯莉·埃文斯的内容非官方文字记录。该访谈于今日,2017 年 12 月 12 日星期二,在 CNBC 的《收盘钟声》节目(周一至周五下午 3 点至 5 点)播出。以下是 CNBC.com 上访谈视频的链接:https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-feds-2-percent-inflation-target-needs-to-go.html?play=1,https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/druckenmiller-central-banks-are-financial-worlds-darth-vader.html?play=1k,https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/is-2-percent-inflation-at-all-times-absurd-billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-thinks-so.html?play=1。

所有引用必须注明来源为 CNBC。

凯莉·埃文斯:没错。各位,请稍等。今天早些时候,我和斯坦·德鲁肯米勒聊了聊,他在明天美联储做出决定前对此非常激动。我们来听听。

斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒:我认为 2% 的通胀目标需要废除。如果我是美联储主席——谢天谢地为全世界着想——我不是,它可能根本排不进我的前十项考量标准。这个 2% 的通胀目标,几乎成了由教授们发起的一种信仰。就是这个目标。今天《华尔街日报》头版有篇有趣的故事,讲亚马逊如何让美联储的工作变得更加复杂。这种认为 2% 适用于所有季节和所有时期的信念,对我来说相当荒谬。以最近一次伟大的创新时期为例,即 19 世纪末,我们经历了十年或十五年的通缩,同时伴随着非常快的实际增长。在 50 年代,我认为通胀率在 1% 左右,可能更低,持续了该十年的大部分时间。联邦基金利率是 4%。我们实现了快速增长。没有出现危机。

埃文斯:所以你现在说的是,如果通胀率在比如说 1% 左右,就应该被视为正常和良好的。而他们仍然可以将利率提高到甚至 4%?

Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with Duquesne Capital Management's Former Chairman, President, & Founder Stanley Druckenmiller and CNBC's Kelly Evans. The interview aired on CNBC's "Closing Bell" (M-F 3PM-5PM) today, Tuesday, December 12, 2017. Following are links to video from the interview on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-feds-2-percent-inflation-target-needs-to-go.html?play=1 , https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/druckenmiller-central-banks-are-financial-worlds-darth-vader.html?play=1k , https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/12/is-2-percent-inflation-at-all-times-absurd-billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-thinks-so.html?play=1 . All references must be sourced to CNBC. KELLY EVANS: YEAH. GUYS, STAY RIGHT THERE. EARLIER TODAY I DID SPEAK WITH STAN DRUCKENMILLER WHO IS FIRED UP ABOUT THE FED AHEAD OF TOMORROW'S DECISION. TAKE A LISTEN. STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: I THINK THE 2% INFLATION TARGET NEEDS TO GO. IF I WAS RUNNING THE FED, THANK GOD FOR THE – TO THE WORLD – I'M NOT RUNNING THE FED IT WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE IN MY TOP TEN CRITERIA. THE 2% INFLATION TARGET HAS SORT OF BECOME A RELIGION INITIATED BY THE PROFESSORS. AND IT'S THIS TARGET. THERE'S AN INTERESTING STORY ON THE FRONT PAGE OF "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" TODAY HOW AMAZON IS MAKING THE FED'S JOB MORE COMPLICATED. THIS BELIEF THAT 2% IS APPROPRIATE FOR ALL SEASONS AND ALL TIMES, TO ME IT'S PRETTY ABSURD. YOU TAKE THE LAST GREAT INNOVATION PERIOD WHICH IS THE LATE 1800s, WE HE DEFLATION FOR TEN OR 15 YEARS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY RAPID REAL GROWTH. IN THE '50s, I THINK INFLATION WAS 1%, MAYBE A LITTLE LOWER, FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DECADE. FED FUNDS WERE 4%. WE HAD RAPID GROWTH. THERE WAS NO CRISIS. EVANS: SO WHAT YOU'RE SAYING NOW IS THAT IF INFLATION'S RUNNING – LET'S CALL IT 1%-- THAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED NORMAL AND FINE. AND THEY COULD STILL HAVE INTEREST RATES UP AT EVEN 4%?

德鲁肯米勒我真正想说的是,如果把泰勒规则套用过来(我本人并不推崇机械死板),按照我们目前的经济状况,正常的利率应该在 4% 左右,这很有意思。而我们现在是 1%。在欧洲,正常利率应该是 2%,但他们现在处于负 40%。在瑞典,正常利率应该是 3.75%,而他们现在是负 50%。这还没算上我们正在讨论的债券购买。可这一切都是在 2% 通胀目标的名义下进行的。而且——

埃文斯:如果这些国家把利率维持在,你知道,几乎等于零的水平,其他国家甚至降到零以下,那么这一切的后果是什么?

德鲁肯米勒:后果非常严重,因为我们扭曲了市场信号,造成了各种我称之为资源错配的现象。

埃文斯:比如比特币?还是说那不相干?

德鲁肯米勒:不,完全不是不相干。

DRUCKENMILLERWHAT I'M REALLY SAYING, IF YOU TOOK THE TAYLOR RULE, AND I'M NOT A FAN OF RIGIDITY, A NORMAL INTEREST RATE GIVEN OUR ECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES WOULD BE 4% INTERESTINGLY. WE'RE AT 1%. IN EUROPE, IT WOULD BE 2%. THEY'RE AT MINUS 40%. IN SWEDEN, IT WOULD BE 3.75%. THEY'RE AT MINUS 50%. THAT DOESN'T EVEN COUNT THE BOND BUYING WE'RE TALKING. BUT THIS IS ALL IN THE NAME OF THIS 2% INFLATION TARGET. AND –

EVANS: IF THEY'RE KEEPING RATES IN THIS COUNTRY, YOU KNOW, BARELY ABOVE ZERO, IN OTHER COUNTRIES, BELOW ZERO, WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES OF ALL THAT IS? DRUCKENMILLER: WELL THE CONSEQUENCES ARE HUGE BECAUSE WE'VE DISTORTED MARKET SIGNALS AND WE'RE CAUSING ALL SORTS OF WHAT I WOULD CALL MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES. EVANS: LIKE BITCOIN? OR IS THAT UNRELATED? DRUCKENMILLER: NO, IT'S NOT UNRELATED AT ALL.

比特币、艺术品、葡萄酒、股票、信贷,你说得出名字的都有。一切都在单边上涨,市场上蔓延着巨大的扭曲现象,而这一切都是为了那个 2% 的通胀目标。当资源出现错配时,长期来看确实会阻碍增长。我给你举个例子。上周有一家叫 Steinhoff 的公司。

埃文斯:那家公司现在在美国是床垫公司的母公司。

德鲁肯米勒:没错。这是一家南非公司。我很幸运能做空这只股票,因为有人好心向我解释这些人可能是骗子。从他们的一系列操作来看,顶多算欺诈,而且这是个巨大的并购整合案例。他们以高于美国市场价 100% 的价格收购了这家床垫公司。

BITCOIN, ART, WINE, EQUITIES, CREDIT, YOU NAME IT. EVERYTHING IS ONE WAY UP AND THERE ARE HUGE DISTORTIONS TAKING PLACE, AND IT'S ALL IN THE NAME OF THIS 2% INFLATION TARGET. AND WHEN YOU GET A MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES, IT REALLY HINDERS GROWTH OVER THE LONGER TERM. LET ME GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE. LAST WEEK THERE WAS A COMPANY CALLED STEINHOFF. EVANS: THAT'S COMPANY THAT'S THE PARENT OF MATTRESS FIRM IN THE U.S. NOW. DRUCKENMILLER: YEAH. THIS IS A SOUTH AFRICAN FIRM. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE TO SHORT THE STOCK BECAUSE SOMEONE WAS KIND ENOUGH TO EXPLAIN TO ME THAT THESE GUYS MIGHT BE CROOKS. THERE WAS FRAUD AT BEST WHEN YOU LOOK ANOTHER WHAT WAS GOING ON AND IT'S A HUGE ROLL UP. AND THEY BUY THIS MATTRESS COMPANY IN THE U.S. FOR 100% OVER WHERE IT WAS TRADING.

他们在借钱,大肆并购,大规模信贷。猜猜他们为什么能发行这么多债券?因为欧洲央行在买——买的还是那家半个华尔街都知道是骗局、迟早破产的公司。马里奥·德拉吉会告诉你:“没问题。我们整体投资组合是赚钱的。在这些债券上亏个 1.5 亿、1.6 亿,算不了什么。”问题不在于欧洲央行赚没赚钱。问题在于他们是不是在让骗子和僵尸公司苟延残喘。日本就是这么干了 20 年。这会阻碍长期增长。这种公司就不该四处借钱活着。我们现在差不多就处在这个状态。你看看比特币那边在发生什么。

埃文斯:你持有加密货币吗?

THEY'RE BORROWING MONEY, BIG ROLL-UP, BIG CREDIT. AND GUESS WHY THEY'RE ABLE TO ISSUE ALL THIS DEBT? BECAUSE THE ECB IS BUYING IT, OF A COMPANY THAT HALF THE STREET KNEW WAS A FRAUD AND IT'S GONNA GOING BANKRUPT. NOW MARIO DRAGHI WOULD TELL YOU, "NO PROBLEM. WE'RE MAKING MONEY OVERALL ON OUR PORTFOLIO. THE FACT THAT WE LOST 150, 160 MILLION ON THESE BONDS, IT COMES OUT IN THE WASH." THE POINT ISN'T WHETHER THE ECB IS MAKING MONEY. THE POINT IS WHETHER THEY ARE KEEPING CROOKS AND ZOMBIE COMPANIES ALIVE. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT JAPAN DID FOR 20 YEARS. IT HINDERS LONG-TERM GROWTH. COMPANIES LIKE THIS SHOULD NOT BE WALKING AROUND BORROWING MONEY. THAT'S KIND OF WHERE WE ARE TODAY. YOU SEE WHAT'S GOING ON IN BITCOIN. EVANS: DO YOU OWN ANY CRYPTOCURRENCIES?

德鲁肯米勒我自己没有持有比特币。显然作为交易员我应该持有,但我只交易我了解的东西。我所知道的是,完成一笔比特币交易所需的能量,足够为九户美国家庭供电。到 2019 年,运行比特币网络将消耗美国一半的能源。

埃文斯:听起来公用事业公司值得买入。

德鲁肯米勒:嗯,我觉得有趣的是,大多数比特币支持者都是关注气候的人,他们来自西海岸。我不太明白这其中的联系。我们有一款正在破坏气候的流氓货币,却还要全力支持它,不过随便吧。

埃文斯:所以你不想对比特币会不会涨到 10 万美元或 100 万美元之类的发表看法?

DRUCKENMILLERI DON'T OWN AN. OBVIOUSLY AS A TRADER I SHOULD HAVE BUT I ONLY TRADE WHAT I KNOW. WHAT I DO KNOW IS IT TAKES THE SAME AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO DO ONE BITCOIN TRANSACTION THAT IT TAKES TO POWER NINE HOMES IN THE U.S. BY 2019 IT'LL TAKE UP HALF THE ENERGY IN THE UNITED STATES TO RUN THE BITCOIN NETWORK.

EVANS: SOUNDS LIKE THE UTILITY COMPANIES ARE A BUY. DRUCKENMILLER: WELL, I FIND IT INTERESTING THAT MOST PEOPLE IN BITCOIN ARE CLIMATE PEOPLE. THEY'RE WEST COAST PEOPLE. I DON'T QUITE GET THE CONNECTION. WE'VE GOT THIS ROGUE CURRENCY THAT WE'RE ALL GOING TO SUPPORT THAT IS DESTROYING THE CLIMATE IN SOME EXTENT, BUT WHATEVER. EVANS: SO YOU'RE NOT GOING TO TAKE A POSITION ON WHETHER BITCOIN IS GOING TO GO UP TO $100,000 OR A MILLION OR WHATEVER THE--?

我是说,如果我们在谈论泡沫,这一定像我们经历过的最大泡沫之一。

德鲁肯米勒:我不知道这是不是我们经历过的最大泡沫。你看,比特币和其他任何东西一样,它的价值取决于人们愿意为它支付多少钱。现在人们愿意支付——我最近五分钟没看,所以价格可能变了——但比方说,他们愿意支付 17000 美元。这就是它现在的价值。当年人们为郁金香支付那个价钱时,郁金香就值那个价。黄金也值它当下的价格。关于比特币,我确实知道的一点是,它能成为交易媒介的设想已经被否定了,因为你无法用这种波动性的东西来执行交易,尤其是零售交易。

I MEAN, IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT BUBBLES IT MUSTLOOK LIKE SOME OF THE GREATEST WE'VE EXPERIENCED. DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T KNOW WHETHER IT'S THE GREATEST WE'VE EVER EXPERIENCED. LOOK BITCOIN IS LIKE ANYTHING ELSE, IT'S WORTH WHAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR IT. AND RIGHT NOW PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO PAY -- I HAVEN'T LOOKED IN THE LAST FIVE MINUTES SO IT COULD HAVE VARIED – BUT LET'S SAY THEY'RE WILLING TO PAY $17,000. THAT'S WHAT IT'S WORTH. THE TULIPS WERE WORTH WHEN PEOPLE WERE PAYING THAT FOR THEM. GOLD IS WHAT IT'S WORTH. WHAT I DO KNOW ABOUT BITCOIN IS THE CONCEPT THAT IT COULD EVER BE A MEDIUM OF EXCHANGE HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BECAUSE YOU CAN'T DO TRANSACTIONS, PARTICULARLY RETAIL TRANSACTIONS WITH SOMETHING WITH THIS KIND OF VOLATILITY.

但是,如果人们认为比特币值 1.7 万美元,那它今天就是值这个价。

埃文斯:在进入下一话题之前,最后一个问题。有些人想持有比特币,因为他们和你一样对美联储和央行持批评态度。所以,如果他们认同你的理念——央行把事情搞砸了——那持有比特币,不正是表达这种立场的最好方式吗?

德鲁肯米勒:这是个非常好的问题。我认为,总有一天要搞清楚这一切何时会结束。然后,要么离场,要么做空。因为,顺便说一句,当这一切结束时——它一定会结束——我指的是我们现在所处的这个货币激进主义时期,比特币很可能会和其他资产一起下跌。

埃文斯:对你来说,今年过得怎么样?

德鲁肯米勒:我不得不说,这大概是我面对那么多投资机会时,表现最差的一年。

BUT IF PEOPLE THINK BITCOIN IS WORTH $17,000, THAT'S WHAT IT'S WORTH TODAY. EVANS: LAST THING ON THIS BEFORE YOU MOVE ON. THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT WANT TO HOLD BITCOIN BECAUSE THEY'RE AS CRITICAL AS THE FED AND CENTRAL BANKS AS YOU ARE. SO IF THEY AGREE WITH YOUR PHILOSOPHY THAT CENTRAL BANKS ARE SCREWING THIS UP THEN WHAT WOULD BE A BETTER WAY TO EXPRESS THAT THAN HOLDING BITCOIN? DRUCKENMILLER: THAT'S AN EXCELLENT QUESTION. I THINK AT SOME POINT FIGURE OUT WHEN THIS IS GOING TO END. AND THEN EITHER GET OUT OR GO SHORT. BECAUSE, BY THE WAY, WHEN THIS ENDS AND IT WILL, I'M TALKING ABOUT THIS MONETARY RADICALISM PERIOD WE'RE IN, BITCOIN WILL PROBABLY GO DOWN WITH THE REST OF THE STUFF. EVANS: HOW HAS THE YEAR BEEN FOR YOU? DRUCKENMILLER: I WOULD HAVE TO SAY IT'S PROBABLY THE WORST YEAR I'VE HAD RELATIVE TO THE SET OF OPPORTUNITIES OUT THERE.

我永远记不清了。对我来说,1997 年就很接近了。

埃文斯:但那是亚洲金融危机。

德鲁肯米勒:哦,那是个不错的机会。我在股票上做得非常好。但我在宏观交易上真是、真是犯了大错。结果就是——如果只靠宏观判断,我本来会迎来第一个亏损年,但股票把我救了回来,所以除非出现奇迹,否则不会发生这种事。

埃文斯:但你还没涨 30% 吧?

德鲁肯米勒:我离 30% 差得远呢。我连两位数涨幅都没有。你知道,相对本来的机会而言,我这又是糟糕的一年,这将是——除非出现奇迹,这将是我在外汇交易上的第一个亏损年。

埃文斯:我反复指出美元太弱的事实。这算其中一个例子吗?还是我们在谈别的?

I CAN NEVER RECALL. I MEAN, FOR ME, 1997 WAS CLOSE. EVANS: BUT THAT WAS AN ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS. DRUCKENMILLER: WELL, THAT WAS PRETTY GOOD OPPORTUNITY. I HAVE DONE VERY WELL IN STOCKS. I'VE REALLY, REALLY MISTRADED MACRO. IT'S GOING TO BE -- IF IT WAS UP TO MACRO, I'D HAVE MY FIRST DOWN YEAR BUT STOCKS HAVE BAILED ME OUT, SO BARRING A MIRACLE, THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. EVANS: BUT YOU'RE NOT UP 30%? DRUCKENMILLER: I'M NOT UP ANYWHERE NEAR 30%. I'M NOT UP DOUBLE DIGITS. YOU KNOW, I'M HAVING, AGAIN, RELATIVE THE OPPORTUNITY A TERRIBLE YEAR, IT'S GOING TO BE MY FIRST – BARRING A MIRACLE IT'S GOING TO BE MY FIRST DOWN YEAR IN CURRENCIES EVER. EVANS: I POINTED OUT REPEATEDLY THE FACT THE U.S. DOLLAR IS SO WEAK. WOULD THAT BE ONE EXAMPLE OR ARE WE TALKING ABOUT OTHER THINGS?

德鲁肯米勒不。只是我自己交易过度,在错误的时间表现冷淡。由于多年来这一直是我的看家本领,我告诉你,我在那里的头寸暴露相对于股票而言过于集中。你(财经)频道上一周前有人说过,今年你只要从床上爬起来,就能赚 20% 到 30%。显然,我是从床的另一边爬起来的。

威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特:哇。他在业绩方面做出了很大的承认。

埃文斯:自嘲。听到德鲁肯米勒先生的发言总是很愉快。当然,能听听他对这些事情的看法也是一件乐事。

埃文斯:是的。苹果是最受追捧的股票之一,行情继续上涨。但对对冲基金巨头斯坦·德鲁肯米勒来说却不是。原因如下:

埃文斯:那对于苹果你怎么看?

DRUCKENMILLERNO. IT'S JUST ME JUST OVERTRADING AND BEING COLD AT THE WRONG TIME AND SINCE IT'S BEEN MY BREAD AND BUTTER FOR YEARS, I TELL YOU OVERALLOCATING EXPOSURE THERE RELATIVE TO EQUITIES. SOMEBODY ON YOUR NETWORK SAID A WEEK AGO ALL YOU HAD TO DO THIS YEAR WAS ROLL OUT OF BED AND YOU'RE GOING TO BE UP 20% OR 30%. APPARENTLY I GOT OUT OF THE WRONG SIDE OF THE BED.

WILFRED FROST: WOW. A BIG ADMISSION FROM HIM THERE ON THE PERFORMANCE FRONT. EVANS: SELF-DEPRECATING. IT'S ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO HEAR FROM MR. DRUCKENMILLER. AND ALSO OF COURSE TO GET HIS VIEW ON THESE THINGS. -0- EVANS: YEAH. APPLE IS ONE OF THE MOST-LOVED STOCKS, MOVING ON.BUT NOT FOR HEDGE FUND TITAN STAN DRUCKENMILLER. HERE IS WHY: EVANS: WHAT ABOUT APPLE IN THAT CASE?

德鲁肯米勒苹果我并不觉得像亚马逊、Facebook 或谷歌那样令人兴奋。它是一家硬件公司。我知道他们有应用平台,但——

埃文斯:你用他们的产品吗?你认为它们是出色的产品吗?

德鲁肯米勒:我确实认为它们是出色的产品,但它们可能并不比三星好多少,只是它们拥有强大的品牌。我只是觉得——我看不到我在其他公司看到的那种盈利潜力,要说的话,它们目前的利润率可能已经赚得过头了。所以我没有持有这只股票,但也没有做空它。

-0-

埃文斯:今天早些时候,我与杜肯家族办公室首席执行官斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒进行了交谈,以下是他对税收法案的看法:

德鲁肯米勒:在你们电视台大选后的第二天,我就说过,我对放松监管和税改的前景感到非常兴奋。

DRUCKENMILLERAPPLE I DON'T FIND NEAR AS EXCITING AS SAY AMAZON, FACEBOOK, OR GOOGLE. IT'S A HARDWARE COMPANY. I UNDERSTAND THEY HAVE AN APP PLATFORM, BUT --

EVANS: DO YOU USE THEIR PRODUCTS, DO YOU CONSIDER THEM GREAT PRODUCTS? DRUCKENMILLER: I DO THINK THEY'RE GREAT PRODUCTS, BUT THEY'RE PROBABLY NO BETTER THAN'S SAMSUNG BUT THEY HAVE A GREAT BRAND. I JUST THINK – I DON'T SEE THE UNDEREARNING THAT I SEE IN OTHER COMPANIES, IF ANYTHING THEY'RE PROBABLY OVEREARNING IN TERMS OF THE MARGIN THEY'RE MAKING. SO I DON'T OWN THAT ONE, I'M NOT SHORT IT. -0- EVANS: EARLIER TODAY I SAT DOWN WITH DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE CEO STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER, HERE ARE HIS THOUGHTS ON THE TAX BILL: DRUCKENMILLER: ON YOUR NETWORK THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION, I SAID I WAS VERY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR DEREGULATION AND TAX REFORM.

我当时觉得,他们有很大机会能提振经济。我对那个名为“更好之路”的众议院计划尤其感到兴奋。我认为,那是我几十年来见过的第一个真正能解决美国根本问题的方案——我们消费过度,投资不足。实际上,他们只需要签字就行了。但财长姆努钦另有想法。对我来说,这真是一个巨大的错失良机。

埃文斯:你喜欢——你认为当前的税改方案合理吗?

德鲁肯米勒:不合理。话虽如此,其中有些内容还是有帮助的,也在一定程度上朝着“更好之路”的方向前进。首先,费用化措施明显是鼓励投资的。和“更好之路”类似,但力度小了很多,而且为他们的一些盟友设了例外——比如利息扣除。

I THOUGHT THERE WAS A GOOD CHANCE THEY COULD BOOST THE ECONOMY. I WAS PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT THE HOUSE PROGRAM "A BETTER WAY." AND I THOUGHT THAT IT'S THE FIRST PROGRAM ACTUALLY THAT I HAD SEEN IN DECADES WHICH WOULD ADDRESS OUR FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM IN THE U.S. – WHICH WE OVER-CONSUME AND WE UNDER-INVEST. AND LITERALLY ALL THEY HAD TO DO WAS SIGN IT. BUT SECRETARY MNUCHIN HAD OTHER IDEAS. TO ME IT'S JUST BEEN A HUGE MISSED OPPORTUNITY. EVANS: DO YOU LIKE-- DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT TAX REFORM PLAN IS SOUND? DRUCKENMILLER: NO. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT-- THAT ARE HELPFUL AND THAT GO A LITTLE BIT OF THE WAY BETTER WAY WENT. FIRST OF ALL THERE'S EXPENSING, THAT'S OBVIOUSLY PRO-INVESTMENT. LIKE THE BETTER WAY, BUT AGAIN VERY MUTED AND CARVED OUT FOR SOME OF THEIR BUDDIES-- THERE'S INTEREST DEDUCTIBILITY.

因为我认为,我们这个国家的债务太多了,股权太少了。最后一点是,税基确实、确实大大拓宽了。所以很多个人都能获得减税。

埃文斯:按照这个方案,你能获得减税吗?

德鲁肯米勒:不能,我的税率会提高 600 个基点。

埃文斯:取消遗产税对你有帮助吗?那肯定对你有帮助吧。

德鲁肯米勒:遗产税会被取消吗?

埃文斯:我觉得,他们是提高起征点。也许那不会起太大作用。

德鲁肯米勒:我——我希望自己的最终税额趋近于零。

埃文斯:哇。你的个人——持仓。

德鲁肯米勒:所以我真不把遗产税当回事。我不赞成取消遗产税。我确实——我确实赞成保留 1000 万美元或 1500 万美元的免税额度,让某人留个养老本,但完全取消 3 亿美元以上的遗产税——我不理解。

BECAUSE I THINK WE GOT TOO MUCH DEBT IN THIS COUNTRY AND WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH EQUITY. AND THE FINAL THING IS YOU'VE REALLY, REALLY BROADENED THE TAX BASE. SO A LOT OF INDIVIDUALS ARE GETTING TAX CUTS. EVANS: DO YOU GET A TAX CUT UNDER THE PLAN? DRUCKENMILLER: NO, I'LL GET A 600 BASIS POINT INCREASE. EVANS: DOES THE ESTATE TAX REPEAL HELP YOU? THAT MUST HELP YOU. DRUCKENMILLER: IS THAT GOING TO BE REPEALED? EVANS: OR THEY'RE RAISING THE CEILING, I GUESS. MAYBE THAT WON'T DO TOO MUCH. DRUCKENMILLER: I'M – I'M HOPING TO END UP PRETTY NEAR ZERO. EVANS: WOW. YOUR PERSONAL-- HOLDINGS. DRUCKENMILLER: SO I DON'T REALLY LOOK AT THE ESTATE TAX. I DON'T LIKE THE REPEAL OF THE ESTATE TAX. I DO – I DO LIKE THIS IDEA OF $10 MILLION OR $15 MILLION SO SOMEBODY'S NEST EGG, BUT REPEALING $300 MILLION-- I DON'T GET.

我本来还应该提到另一件事——把税制转向属地原则。这不如边境调节税好。但——

埃文斯:你支持边境调节税?

德鲁肯米勒:我极为支持边境调节税。对我来说,它又是——一个非常优雅地解决了我们消费过度、投资不足问题的方案。不幸的是,姆努钦先生和他们那些来自零售公司的游说盟友(那些公司大概十年或十五年内都未必还能活下来)成功地把这事扼杀了。这相当令人惊讶——

埃文斯:不过,这是否也会伤害亚马逊呢?

德鲁肯米勒:我其实不在乎它是否会伤害亚马逊。我不会从那个角度考虑问题。归根结底,你知道,我不在乎。我们——我认为我们需要征税——那有点像一种增值税和拖累,这就是它被扼杀的原因。

THE OTHER THING I SHOULD HAVE MENTIONED IS-- MOVING THE TAX SYSTEM -- A TERRITORIAL BASE. NOT AS GOOD AS THE BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX. BUT— EVANS: YOU WANTED THE BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX? DRUCKENMILLER: I WAS WILDLY IN FAVOR OF THE BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX. AND TO ME IT WAS-- AGAIN IT WAS A VERY ELEGANT SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM WE WERE OVER-CONSUMING AND UNDER-INVESTING. UNFORTUNATELY MR. MNUCHIN AND ALL THEIR LOBBYING BUDDIES FROM RETAIL COMPANIES WHICH ARE PROBABLY NOT EVEN GONNA BE IN BUSINESS IN TEN OR 15 YEARS SUCCEEDED IN KILLING THE THING. IT'S PRETTY AMAZING THAT-- EVANS: WOULD IT HAVE HURT AMAZON TOO THOUGH OR NO? DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T REALLY CARE IF IT WOULD HAVE HURT AMAZON. I DON'T THINK OF THINGS IN THOSE TERMS. NET/NET, YOU KNOW, I DON'T CARE. WE— I THINK WE NEED TO TAX-- THAT WAS SORT OF A VALUE ADDED TAX AND DRAG, WHICH IS WHY IT KIND OF GOT KILLED.

但我真的很喜欢它。而且,你知道,它显然在早期就被一个极其凶猛的零售业游说团体给否决了。

埃文斯:那么,你认为如果税改方案通过了——而且——我们还不清楚最终的细节,但你认为它现在会对股市和经济产生什么影响?

德鲁肯米勒:我真的不认为它会影响到股市。它已经被股市消化了。我认为股市基本上取决于央行的政策。而收益方面的任何好处,我认为都会被央行对收益的调整所抵消。我想说,对经济而言,它应该在 2018 年产生极为、极为刺激的效果,并且在此后的几年里也还有一些效果。长期来看,如果说有什么影响,那是个问题。

BUT I REALLY LIKED IT. AND YOU KNOW, IT OBVIOUSLY GOT NIXED FAIRLY EARLY ON BY A JUST BRUTAL RETAIL LOBBY. EVANS: SO DO YOU THINK IF THE TAX REFORM PLAN PASSES-- AND-- WE DON'T KNOW THE FINAL-FINAL DETAILS YET, BUT WHAT DIFFERENCE DO YOU THINK IT'LL MAKE TO THE STOCK MARKET AND THE ECONOMY RIGHT NOW? DRUCKENMILLER: I DON'T REALLY THINK IT'S GOING TO MATTER TO THE STOCK MARKET. IT'S ALREADY IN THE STOCK MARKET. AND I THINK THE STOCK MARKET IS BASICALLY A FUNCTION OF CENTRAL BANK POLICY. AND ANY BENEFITS TO EARNING I THINK WILL BE OFFSET BY CENTRAL BANK-- ADJUSTING TO THAT. I WOULD SAY ON THE ECONOMY, IT SHOULD HAVE VERY, VERY STIMULATIVE EFFECT IN '18 AND SOME FOR A FEW YEARS AFTER THAT. AND LONGER TERM, IF ANYTHING, IT'S A PROBLEM.

让我解释一下。

埃文斯:快速说一下 2018 年,你认为它会非常刺激,这跟大多数人的想法不一样。那是因为费用化吗?

德鲁肯米勒:不只是费用化。讽刺的是——如果企业减税推迟一年,费用化的效果会比看起来更强,因为如果你是一家企业——

埃文斯:你会有巨大的动力——

德鲁肯米泽勒:——你会——

埃文斯:——降低你的税率?

德鲁肯米勒:——在 2018 年按较高税率进行费用化,比在 2019 年按较低税率进行费用化更划算。所以我认为,这会极大地刺激资本支出和投资。我对此事的整体看法是——再说一遍,那个众议院计划是税改。它不是净增的财政刺激。我们正处于经济扩张的第八、九年。我们以后会迫切需要弹药。

LET ME EXPLAIN. EVANS: REAL QUICKLY ON '18, YOU THINK IT'LL BE VERY STIMULATIVE, WHICH IS NOT WHAT MOST PEOPLE THINK. IS THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPENSING OR? DRUCKENMILLER: IT'S NOT ONLY THE EXPENSING. IRONICALLY-- THE EXPENSING IS GOING TO BE MORE POWERFUL EVEN THAN IT APPEARS IF THE TAX CUT CORPORATION IS DELAYED A YEAR BECAUSE THEN IF YOU'RE A CORPORATION-- EVANS: YOU HAVE A HUGE INCENTIVE— DRUCKENMILLER: -- YOU HAVE— EVANS: --TO LOWER YOUR RATE? DRUCKENMILLER: --A BIGGER EXPENSING UNDER THE HIGHER TAX RATE IN '18 THAN YOU WOULD HAVE UNDER '19. SO I THINK IT SUPER CHARGES CAPITAL SPENDING AND INVESTMENT. MY PROBLEM WITH THIS WHOLE THING IS-- AND AGAIN, THE HOUSE PLAN WAS TAX REFORM. IT WAS NOT NET-NET FISCAL STIMULUS. HERE WE ARE, EIGHT OR NINE YEARS INTO AN ECONOMIC EXPANSION. WE'RE GOING TO NEED AMMUNITION DESPERATELY DOWN THE ROAD.

而我们正在增加赤字——取决于你怎么算,1 万亿美元到 1.5 万亿美元,可能更多。在小布什接手时,我认为债务占 GDP 的比例低于 50%。

埃文斯:哇。

德鲁肯米勒:到奥巴马结束时,两人一起造成的损害,达到了 77%。这次将把它推到 95%。凯莉,你记得吧,我花了两年时间在大学里巡回演讲,谈论福利改革和——

埃文斯:那可能是下一步。我是说,他们说也许明年想搞福利改革。

德鲁肯米勒:我看到上面有张图片。也许我能把布鲁克林大桥卖给你,我在那张图上看到了。如果他们能将此次在企业方面和个人方面的财政刺激,与 1 万亿美元或 1.5 万亿美元的福利改革刺激相抵消,那会多么优雅。

AND WE'RE INCREASING THE DEFICIT-- IT DEPENDS ON HOW YOU SCORE, $1 TRILLION TO $1.5 TRILLION, MAYBE MORE SO. WHEN BUSH TOOK OVER, I THINK THAT THE GDP WAS UNDER 50%. EVANS: WOW. DRUCKENMILLER: BY THE END OF OBAMA, TWO OF THEM DID THEIR DAMAGE TOGETHER, IT WAS 77%. THIS THING TAKES IT TO 95%. KELLY, IF YOU REMEMBER, I SPENT TWO YEARS OF MY LIFE GOING AROUND TO COLLEGES TALKING ABOUT ENTITLEMENT REFORM AND— EVANS: WHICH MAY BE NEXT. I MEAN, THEY SAY THEY MAYBE WANT TO DO WELFARE REFORM NEXT YEAR. DRUCKENMILLER: I SEE A PICTURE UP THERE. MAYBE I COULD SELL YOU THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE, I SEE IT OVER THERE ON THAT PICTURE. IT WOULD'VE BEEN SO ELEGANT IF THEY HAD USED THE FISCAL STIMULUS IN THIS ON THE CORPORATE SIDE AND ON THE INDIVIDUAL SIDE AND OFFSET THE $1 TRILLION OR $1.5 TRILLION STIMULUS WITH ENTITLEMENT REFORM.

未来 20 年,每天有 11000 人年满 65 岁。这是一个必须处理的定时炸弹。我们在偷窃未来。而我们只是加剧了问题。对我来说,我们本可以利用刺激措施,同时进行医疗保险和社会保障改革来抵消它。

埃文斯:最后两个问题。把这个放一边,或者也许它也是其中的一部分,你现在比在竞选期间,或者你知道,在过去,更支持总统吗?

德鲁肯米勒:我在竞选期间从未支持过他。没有。我认为这个税收计划,它就是它。有好有坏。我没赶上好处。我对附带权益条款感到非常气愤。

埃文斯:他们保留了这个条款,所以人们可以——

德鲁肯米勒:嗯,这太离谱了。

WE HAVE 11,000 PEOPLE A DAY TURNING 65 FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS. THIS IS A TICKING TIME BOMB THAT HAS TO BE DEALT WITH. WE'RE STEALING FROM OUR FUTURE. AND WE JUST AGGRAVATED THE PROBLEM. AND TO ME, WE COULD'VE USED THE STIMULUS AND OFFSET IT WITH REFORM TO MEDICARE AND SOCIAL SECURITY. EVANS: LAST TWO QUESTIONS THEN. PUTTING THAT ASIDE, OR MAYBE THAT BEING PART OF IT, DO YOU SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT MORE NOW THAN YOU DID BACK ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL OR-- YOU KNOW, IN THE PAST? DRUCKENMILLER: I NEVER SUPPORTED HIM ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. NO. I THINK THE TAX PLAN, IT IS WHAT IT IS. THERE ARE SOME GOOD THINGS AND THERE ARE SOME BAD THINGS. I DIDN'T GET IN ON THE BAD THING. I AM SO OFFENDED BY THE CARRIED INTEREST PROVISION. EVANS: THE FACT THAT THEY'RE KEEPING IT IN PLACE, SO PEOPLE CAN— DRUCKENMILLER: WELL, IT'S OUTRAGEOUS.

蓝州的医生和律师,税率大幅上升,专业人士。而这些人,这些身家亿万的亿万富翁却有特殊豁免。我们得说清楚。附带权益,你在别人的资本上赚钱。不是你自己的钱。如果那不是收入,我不知道什么是。我想重复一遍。你是用别人的资本在操作。首先,为了这个而去游说国会议员的亿万富翁们应该感到羞耻,因为我们要求蓝州的医生、律师和其他美国人承受加税,来资助这种荒唐事。至于它的经济利益,这些人买下的公司,有一半他们会剥离资产,然后,你知道,解雇员工。所以,认为他们在增加就业的想法是荒谬的。

WE HAVE DOCTORS AND LAWYERS IN BLUE STATES, TAX RATES GOING UP DRAMATICALLY, PROFESSIONALS. AND YOU HAVE THESE MULTI, MULTI BILLIONAIRES WITH CARVE OUTS. LET'S BE CLEAR. CARRIED INTERESTS, YOU'RE MAKING MONEY ON SOMEBODY ELSE'S CAPITAL. IT'S NOT ON YOUR OWN. IF THAT'S NOT INCOME, I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS. I WANT TO REPEAT THAT. YOU'RE DOING IT ON OTHER PEOPLE'S CAPITAL. FIRST OF ALL, THE BILLIONAIRES LOBBYING THE CONGRESSMEN FOR THIS OUGHT TO BE ASHAMED OF THEMSELVES, BECAUSE WE'RE ASKING DOCTORS AND LAWYERS AND OTHER AMERICANS IN BLUE STATES TO TAKE TAX INCREASES SO WE CAN FUND THIS KIND OF NONSENSE. AND AS FOR ITS ECONOMIC BENEFITS, HALF THE COMPANIES THESE GUYS BUY, THEY THEN STRIP THEM AND, YOU KNOW, FIRE PEOPLE. SO THE IDEA THAT THEY'RE INCREASING EMPLOYMENT IS ABSURD.

而那些听信他们的政客,那些自称圣洁的人——“现在,我们要进行所有这些改革,堵住漏洞”,真是令人愤慨。

如需更多信息,请联系:

Jennifer Dauble

CNBC

电话:201.735.4721

手机:201.615.2787

邮箱:[email protected]

Emma Martin

CNBC

电话:201.735.4713

邮箱:[email protected]

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