《每日电讯报》|如果他们说这些话,别买他们的股票

2013 · 文章 · 原文约 902 词
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参与财务分析近四十年,我越来越形成一个看法:公司管理层、分析师和评论员使用的某些词语,投资者应当保持警惕。除了滥用英语语言之外,这些词还代表了思维含糊不清,以及掩饰问题或转移注意力的企图。

Having been involved in financial analysis for nearly four decades, I have increasingly formed the view that there are some words and phrases used by company managements, analysts and commentators which investors should be wary of. Apart from being an abuse of the English language, they represent a combination of woolly thinking and a desire to disguise or divert attention from a problem.

以美国零售商沃尔玛为例。在最近一次业绩发布会上,管理层使用“杠杆”一词的次数不下 80 次。杠杆有正当的含义,可以指用刚性杆移动物体,也可以指借助借款融资,放大或“撬动”企业的经营成果。

Take Wal-Mart, the US-based retailer. In a recent results presentation the management used the term “leverage” no less than 80 times. Leverage has a legitimate meaning. It can mean to use a rigid bar to move an object. It can also mean the use of borrowing for finance which magnifies or "leverages" the operating results of a business.

但不应像沃尔玛那样用:“阿斯达是线上杂货配送的领导者,我们在美国杠杆了这方面的经验。”应该是借鉴、受益或学习,而不是杠杆。

It should not be used, as Wal-Mart did, to say, “Asda is a leader in online grocery delivery, and we’ve leveraged that experience in the US”. Copied, benefited or learnt from, but not leveraged.

“禁用词综合征”(或缩写为 BWS,因为必须有三个字母的缩写)的大规模爆发,恰逢沃尔玛公布销售下滑的业绩,这大概不是巧合。

It is probably no coincidence that this mass outbreak of Banned Word Syndrome (or BWS, as you must have a three-letter acronym) accompanied a set of results in which Wal-Mart revealed falling sales.

所以第一类不该用、而且听到时要提高警惕的词,就是那些被引申到超出原意的词语。其他例子包括“跑道”用来形容产品或服务的发展空间,如“这个产品的销售发展跑道很长”。跑道是飞机起降的条状地带。只有跟锁相关的东西才能叫“钥匙”,所以没有“关键目标”这回事。“足迹”只该用于脚或鞋,而不是企业的业务覆盖范围。

So this first category of words which shouldn’t be used, and which should raise your suspicions when they are, is words which are used for a meaning beyond their original purpose. Other examples include “runway” used to describe the scope for development of a product or service as in “there’s plenty of runway to develop sales for this product”. A runway is a strip on which an aircraft lands or takes off. You should only describe something as “key” if it relates to a lock, so no “key objectives”. “Footprint” should only be used in relation to feet or footwear, not the area of operations of a business.

另一类词是用来故作高深,其实有更简单的词可用。你经常听到管理层和投资分析师谈论“颗粒化数据”或“颗粒度”。“细节”就是个完全够用的词。

Another category is words which are used in an effort to sound profound, when a much simpler word exists. You will often hear management and investment analysts talking about granular data or granularity. Detail is a perfectly good word.

有时候用某个词不是为了显得高深,而是带贬损或批评意味。我数不清有多少失败的银行家和首席执行官,他们的养老金“罐子”成为批评报道和随后众怒的对象。如果正确称为养老基金,不知道他们是否会有同样遭遇。罐子是一种容器。

Sometimes the word used is not intended to convey an impression of profundity but has a pejorative or critical tone. I have lost count of the number of failed bankers and CEOs whose pension “pot” has been the subject of critical reporting and subsequent rage. I wonder if they would have suffered the same fate if it was correctly described as a pension fund. A pot is a type of container.

还有一些表达也要小心。如果有人对你说“伸出援手”联系你,你可以问问这和联系你有什么区别,好在哪。当然,还要警惕任何以“说句实话”开头的人,因为这让人不禁要问,他们平时是不是不老实。永远警惕由“指导委员会”管理的机构。你见过靠委员会来掌舵船或车的吗?真这么做结果会怎样?在我看来,由指导委员会管理的机构很难取得什么好成果。

There are also some expressions that you should be wary of. If someone tells you they are “reaching out” to you, you might ask how this is different to or better than contacting you. And, of course, be wary of anyone who begins a statement with “to be honest”, as it begs the question of whether they are normally dishonest. Always be wary of any organisation which is run by a “steering committee”. Would you ever steer a boat or a car by committee, and what do you think the outcome would be if you did? Organisations run by steering committees are unlikely to achieve any good results in my view.

这让我想到一种表达类型,我要据此提出一条新定律——史密斯定律:如果一个表达的反面荒谬到你绝不会说出口,那这个表达就不该用。我见过无数公司声称有“选择性收购”的策略。有人会承认自己的收购政策是“胡乱收购”吗(尽管很多公司实际干的就是这个)?英格兰银行新任行长马克·卡尼一直在努力让市场接受他对利率的“前瞻指引”。他或许该停下来想想,自己会不会用“后瞻指引”。如果会,他大概也乐意“聚集在一起”(能“散开在一起”吗?)做点“计划未来”(还有别的计划吗?)。也许他直接说是预测,效果反而更好。

Which brings me on to a type of expression for which I am laying claim to a new law – Smith’s Law: you should never use an expression if its opposite is so nonsensical that you would never say it. I have seen innumerable companies say they have a strategy of “select acquisitions”. Would anyone ever admit to a policy of indiscriminate acquisitions (although it seems that’s what many of them actually do)? The new Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has been struggling to get the markets to accept his “forward guidance” on interest rates. He might like to pause to think whether he would ever use backward guidance. If so, perhaps he would also be happy to “group together” (can you group apart?) and do some “forward planning” (what other sort is there?). Perhaps he would have more success if he just called it a prediction.

要警惕那些夸大其词的管理层或评论员。“全球”就是常见的夸大用词。真正全球化的企业极少,它们可能是国际化的,但这不是一回事。而“全球”用在职务头衔里,几乎总是头衔通胀的例子。每当有人递给我一张“全球销售主管”的名片,我都想问问她或他卖出了多少个地球仪。今年有家报纸办了场自行车活动,广告里说是“标志性的”。环法自行车赛才算标志性,在萨里郡周边骑一圈不算。

Be wary of management or commentators who engage in hyperbole. “Global” is a common example of hyperbole. Very few businesses are truly global. They may be international, but that is not the same. And when “global” is used in job titles it is almost always an example of status inflation. Whenever I am given the business card of a head of global sales I am tempted to ask how many globes he or she has sold. A newspaper this year ran a cycling event which it described in its advertising as “iconic”. The Tour de France is iconic, a ride around the Surrey Hills isn’t.

在 Fundsmith,我们对所分析的公司保留一个禁用词计数器,因为我们认为这些词能反映其管理层。我们的投资方法就是投资好公司,好公司最好的识别方式是看业绩——我们不需要管理层来告诉我们他们有多好——但当我们确实听管理层说话时,说话直来直去的人会得到我们的选票和资金。

At Fundsmith we keep a banned word count for the companies we analyse because we think they provide an insight into their management. Our investment approach is about investing in good companies. They are best spotted by their good results – we do not need managements to tell us how good they are – but when we do listen to management, the straight talkers get our vote and our money.

一个典型的例子是达美乐披萨,2009 年它开始转型,做法是公开客户的严厉批评,比如“披萨像纸板”。只有真心想改变的人才会这么做。此后股价从 8.5 美元涨到 68 美元。该股自基金成立以来一直是我们最大的持仓之一。

A classic example is Domino’s Pizza, which began a turnaround in 2009 by publishing harsh criticism from its customers such as “Pizza was cardboard”. You only do that if you intend to change. Since then, shares have risen from $8.50 to $68. It has been one of our largest holdings since the inception of the fund.

Terry Smith

Terry Smith

The Telegraph

The Telegraph