《每日电讯报》：专注于已知的已知
唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德，美国前国防部长，曾说过：“有已知的已知。这些是我们知道的事情。还有已知的未知。也就是说，我们知道有些事情我们不知道。但也有未知的未知。那些是我们不知道我们不知道的事情。”
Donald Rumsfeld, the former US defence secretary, once said: "There are known knowns. These are things that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."
我惊讶于人们浪费了多少时间和精力去猜测已知的未知会发生什么。英国脱欧、中国、大宗商品、利率、油价、量化宽松和美国总统大选，这些都是已知的未知。
I am amazed by how much time and effort people waste trying to guess what will happen in known unknowns. Brexit, China, commodities, interest rates, the oil price, quantitative easing and the US presidential election are all known unknowns.
就拿英国脱欧来说：谁能自信地根据一个所有民意调查都搞错的事件结果来采取投资立场？显然，有些基金经理确实这么做了：“英国脱欧改变了一切”，一位绝对回报（多么不恰当的名字）基金经理惊呼道，而这一年至今他的业绩下跌超过 20%。
Take Brexit: who would feel confident in taking an investment stance based on the outcome of an event that every pollster got wrong? Evidently some fund managers did: "Brexit changes everything" exclaimed one absolute return (what an inappropriate title that is) fund manager who was down by more than 20pc over the year to date.
恰恰相反，迄今为止我认为英国脱欧几乎没有改变什么。毕竟，这件事还没发生。
On the contrary, so far I think it has changed very little. After all, it hasn't happened yet.
我对少数几位在公投后立即因业绩上涨 20% 而受到赞扬的基金经理同样没什么同情心。他们似乎愿意拿投资者的钱去赌一枚硬币的正反面。
I have just as little sympathy with the few fund managers who were praised for being up by 20pc immediately after the referendum. They were willing to bet their investors' money on a coin toss, it seems.
问题不仅仅在于这些事件难以甚至无法预测。市场是所谓的“二阶”系统：要在此基础上成功投资，你不仅要预测事件结果，还必须知道市场预期是什么以及市场会如何反应。祝你好运。
The problem isn't just that these events are difficult or even impossible to predict. Markets are what are known as "second order" systems: to invest successfully on this basis you would not only have to predict the outcome of the events but would also have to know what the market was expecting and how it would react. Good luck with that.
还有未知的未知的问题。可能引发市场大幅波动的事件，也许是谁都没注意到的东西。预测一个你甚至不知道其存在的事件的结局，这很难。
Then there is the problem of the unknown unknowns. The event that may cause a major move in the market may be one that no one has even spotted. It's hard to predict the outcome of something you don't even know exists.
针对这种不确定性，一个被提出的投资解决方案是所谓的绝对回报基金，近年来吸引了巨额资金，资产总额从 2008 年 6 月的 20 亿英镑增长到 2016 年 6 月的 630 亿英镑。它们表现如何？
One proposed investment solution to this uncertainty are the so-called absolute return funds, which have attracted huge amounts of money in recent years, rising from a total of £2bn of assets in June 2008 to £63bn by June 2016. How have they fared?
过去一年，平均绝对回报基金上涨 0.7%，2015 年涨幅为 2.9%，2014 年为 4.3%。相比之下，Fundsmith 股票基金过去一年上涨 42%，2015 年上涨 15.2%，2014 年上涨 15.3%。在过去五年中，绝对回报基金还有四年跑输 MSCI 世界指数。
The average absolute return fund is up by 0.7pc in the past year and had gains of 2.9pc in 2015 and 4.3pc in 2014. By contrast, Fundsmith Equity is up by 42pc in the past year, 15.2pc in 2015 and 15.3pc in 2014. Absolute return funds have also underperformed the MSCI World index in four of the past five years.
% Total Return
% Total Return
截至 9 月 30 日的年度
Year to 30th September
IA 目标绝对回报板块
IA Targeted Absolute Return Sector
+0.7
+0.7
+2.9
+2.9
+4.3
+4.3
+4.9
+4.9
+2.5
+2.5
MSCI 世界指数
MSCI World Index
+29.9
+29.9
+1.6
+1.6
+12.1
+12.1
+19.9
+19.9
+17.3
+17.3
撇开绝对回报基金使用你我都不理解的复杂对冲策略这一事实不谈，它们的对冲几乎确保了虽然投资者没有亏钱，但也赚不到钱，以至于其名称中的“回报”一词看起来都不合适了。
Leaving aside the fact that absolute return funds use complex hedging strategies that neither you nor I understand, their hedging has pretty much ensured that while their investors have not lost money, they do not make any either, to the point that the word "return" in their title looks inappropriate.
那么你应该关注什么呢？我建议只关注三件事。
So what should you focus on? I would suggest just three things.
首先也是最重要的，投资于优秀企业的股票。这些企业并不难识别，通常已经存在很久，并通过提供客户需要的产品和服务取得了良好的财务业绩。
First and foremost, invest in the shares of good businesses. They are not that difficult to identify, having typically been around for ages and produced good financial results by providing products and services that customers want.
我管理的 Fundsmith 股票基金投资组合中的公司平均成立于 1912 年。这些公司经历了两次世界大战、大萧条和金融危机，很可能也会挺过未来无论已知还是未知的未知。
The average company in the portfolio of the Fundsmith Equity fund, which I run, was founded in 1912. Having survived two world wars, the Great Depression and the financial crisis, they will probably survive whatever known or unknown unknowns lie ahead.
其次，坚持投资于你理解的东西。我从未发现有人不同意这是成功的关键要素。但投资者在界定自己理解的范围时往往界定得不够窄。如今你真的理解银行业吗？如果不理解，你为什么要持有银行股？绝对回报基金如何使用衍生品？不知道？那你为什么要持有它？交易所交易基金如何运作？不了解？那就买指数跟踪基金吧（如果你认为 ETF 和指数跟踪基金是一样的，那你肯定没弄懂这个话题）。
Second, stick to investing in things you understand. I have never found anyone who disagrees that this is an essential ingredient for success. But investors are terrible at defining what it is they understand narrowly enough. Do you really understand banking nowadays? If not, why do you own bank shares? How does an absolute return fund use derivatives? No idea? Then why do you own it? How does an exchange-traded fund work? Don't know? Then buy an index tracker fund (and if you think ETF and index tracker funds are the same, you definitely do not understand the subject).
第三，不要太担心估值。你会发现一些专家和评论员会告诉你，好公司的股票估值太高了。迟早他们会是对的，尽管只是暂时的，但在等待那件事发生的时候，你会错失多少收益？如果你是长期投资者，买入优秀企业的股票比估值更重要。如果你不是长期投资者，那你到股市里来做什么？
Third, don't worry too much about valuations. You will find pundits and commentators who will tell you that good companies' shares are too highly valued. Sooner or later they are bound to be right, albeit temporarily, but what gains will you forgo while you wait for that to occur? If you are a long-term investor, buying shares in a good business is more important than valuation. If you are not a long-term investor, what are you doing investing in the stock market?
特里·史密斯是资产管理公司 Fundsmith 的首席执行官。
Terry Smith is the chief executive of Fundsmith, the asset manager.