Fundsmith股票基金——致股东年度信2024
January 2025
January 2025
亲爱的投资者同仁:
Dear Fellow Investor,
这是写给 Fundsmith 股票基金(下称“基金”)持有人的第十五封年度信函。
This is the fifteenth annual letter to owners of the Fundsmith Equity Fund (‘Fund’).
下表展示了最近一个日历年度的业绩数据,以及自 2010 年 11 月 1 日成立以来的累计和年化业绩,并与多项比较基准进行了对照。
The table below shows performance figures for the last calendar year and the cumulative and annualised performance since inception on 1st November 2010 and various comparators.
2024 年 1 月 1 日至 成立至 2024 年 12 月 31 日 索提诺
% 总回报 12 月 31 日
累计回报 年化回报 比率 6
2024
1
Fundsmith 股票基金 +8.9 +607.3 +14.8 0.87
股票 2 +20.8 +403.4 +12.1 0.60
IA 全球板块 3 +12.6 +254.0 +9.3 0.42
英国债券 4 -2.3 +23.6 +1.5 n/a
现金 5 +5.1 +18.5 +1.2 n/a
本基金不参照任何基准进行管理,上述比较对象仅供参考。
1
T 类累计份额,扣除费用,按英国时间中午计价,来源:彭博。
2
MSCI 世界指数,英镑净回报,按美国市场收盘价计价,来源:彭博。
3
来源:金融快报分析公司
4
彭博系列英国政府 5-10 年期债券指数,来源:彭博。
5
英镑利率,来源:彭博。
6
索提诺比率自成立至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,无风险利率 3.5%,来源:金融快报分析公司。
1st Jan to Inception to 31st Dec 2024 Sortino % Total Return 31st Dec Cumulative Annualised Ratio6 2024 1 Fundsmith Equity Fund +8.9 +607.3 +14.8 0.87 Equities2 +20.8 +403.4 +12.1 0.60 IA Global Sector3 +12.6 +254.0 +9.3 0.42 UK Bonds4 -2.3 +23.6 +1.5 n/a Cash5 +5.1 +18.5 +1.2 n/a The Fund is not managed with reference to any benchmark, the above comparators are provided for information purposes only. 1 T Class Accumulation shares, net of fees, priced at noon UK time, source: Bloomberg. 2 MSCI World Index, £ net, priced at US market close, source: Bloomberg. 3 Source: Financial Express Analytics 4 Bloomberg Series-E UK Govt 5-10 yr Bond Index, source: Bloomberg. 5 £ Interest Rate, source: Bloomberg. 6 Sortino Ratio is since inception to 31.12.24, 3.5% risk free rate, source: Financial Express Analytics.
该表展示的是 T 类累计份额的表现,这是最常持有的份额类别,也是我所投资的类别,2024 年该份额上涨了 8.9%。
The table shows the performance of the T Class Accumulation shares, the most commonly held share class and one in which I am invested, which rose by 8.9% in 2024.
这一对比基准是 MSCI 世界指数(以下简称“指数”),以英镑计价并计入股息再投资,同期上涨 20.8%。因此,本基金在 2024 年跑输该比较基准,但放眼长期视角或许更有价值,也更符合我们的投资目标与策略。自成立以来,本基金年化回报率较指数高出 2.7 个百分点,同时下行价格波动显著更小,这从索提诺比率可见一斑:本基金为 0.87,而指数为 0.60。这简单意味着,每承担一单位价格波动,本基金获得的回报比指数高出约 45%(计算方式为(0.87÷0.60)-1 再乘以 100),关于这一点,后文会进一步详述。
Fundsmith LLP 已获英国金融行为监管局授权并受其监管。在英国与威尔士注册,注册号:OC354233。注册办公地址:33 Cavendish Square, London, W1G 0PW。
This compares with a rise of 20.8% for the MSCI World Index (‘Index’) in sterling with dividends reinvested. The Fund therefore underperformed this comparator in 2024 but a longer-term perspective may be useful and is certainly more consistent with our investment aims and strategy. Since inception, the Fund has returned 2.7% p.a. more than the Index and has done so with significantly less downside price volatility as shown by the Sortino Fundsmith LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England & Wales: OC354233. Regist ered office: 33 Cavendish Square, London, W1G 0PW. Ratio of 0.87 versus 0.60 for the Index. This simply means that the Fund has returned about 45%, ((0.87÷0.60)-1)x100, more than the Index for each unit of price volatility, of which more later.
我们的基金自 2010 年 11 月成立以来,在投资协会全球板块的 162 只基金中表现排名第二,收益率比该板块平均水平高出 353 个百分点,而同期该板块平均收益率仅为 254%。
Our Fund is the second best performer since its inception in November 2010 in the Investment Association Global sector of 162 funds, with a return 353 percentage points above the sector average which has delivered just 254% over the same timeframe.
每年或每个报告期跑赢市场甚至实现正回报,都不该是你对本基金的期待。2024 年,跑赢市场又比往常更难。仅仅五只股票——英伟达、苹果、Meta、微软和亚马逊——就贡献了 2024 年标普 500 指数回报的 45%。这与 2023 年所谓的“七圣徒”集中贡献回报的情形如出一辙。此外,单是英伟达一只股票,就贡献了 2024 年标普 500 指数回报的 20% 以上。
Outperforming the market or even making a positive return is not something you should expect from our Fund in every year or reporting period, and outperforming the market was more than usually challenging once again in 2024. Just five stocks (the ‘Fab Five’?) Nvidia, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon provided 45% of the returns of the S&P 500 Index (‘S&P 500’) in 2024. This is similar to the concentration of returns provided by the so-called Magnificent Seven in 2023. Moreover, a single stock — Nvidia — produced over 20% of the S&P 500 returns in 2024.
科技公司集中贡献回报的现象并非美国独有。在德国,DAX 指数 41% 的回报来自一只股票——软件公司 SAP,其股价上涨 69%,目前市盈率高达 97 倍。
Nor is this concentration of returns in a few technology companies a purely US phenomenon. In Germany 41% of the return from the DAX Index came from a single stock — SAP, the software company whose share price rose by 69% so that it is now trading on a mere 97x earnings.
本基金持有这些股票中的一部分,而非全部,若持股比例未能与指数权重相当,则很难达到与指数同步的表现。我无意在此详述为何未持有全部股票,但稍后在信中会就此提供更多细节。
Our Fund owns some but not all of these stocks and it was difficult to perform even in line with the Index unless you owned them at least in line with their index weighting. I do not intend to give a narrative of why we do not own all of them, but I will give some more detail on this point later in this letter.
在评估个股对业绩的贡献时,我倾向于从问题入手。2024 年对基金业绩拖累最大的五只股票分别是:
In looking at individual stock contribution to performance I prefer to start with the problems. The bottom five detractors from the Fund’s performance in 2024 were:
股票 | 归因
罗氏(L'Oréal) | -2.0%
爱德士(IDEXX) | -1.2%
耐克(Nike) | -0.7%
布朗-福曼(Brown-Forman) | -0.6%
诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk) | -0.6%
数据来源:道富集团
Stock Attribution L'Oréal -2.0% IDEXX -1.2% Nike -0.7% Brown-Forman -0.6% Novo Nordisk -0.6% Source: State Street
欧莱雅受到了中国市场的负面影响,当地经济在萎靡不振的住宅地产行业及相关信贷问题重压下艰难前行。不过这并未改变我们的看法,即欧莱雅本质上是一家非常优秀的企业。这并非其所处的某一主要经济体首次出现失误,我们相信其管理层能够应对。
L’Oréal was adversely affected by events in China where the economy is struggling under the weight of a moribund residential property sector and the associated credit problems. However, this does not alter our view that L’Oréal is fundamentally a very good business. This is not the first time that a major economy it operates in has mis-fired and we believe its management can cope.
IDEXX 生产兽医诊断检测设备和耗材,疫情期间人们争相收养宠物,如今这股热潮退去,宠物就诊节奏放缓,公司正因此承压。IDEXX 所在领域具备实实在在的长期增长前景,且是行业龙头,若我们卖出其股票,恐怕很难再买回原有仓位,因此我们打算继续持有 IDEXX,并努力在业绩不佳的阵痛中强颜欢笑。
2 IDEXX which makes veterinary diagnostic testing equipment and supplies is suffering from a slackening in the pace of vet visits after the scramble to adopt pets during the pandemic. As the industry leader in an area with real long-term growth prospects and a stock where we would probably struggle to buy back our position if we sold it, we intend to continue holding IDEXX and to try to smile through the pain of underperformance.
耐克是我们在大流行期间股价下跌后买入的一只股票,当时投资者似乎确信运动鞋的买家会大幅减少。事实上,耐克在线上营销和履约方面已经取得了长足进步。我们没有意识到的是,当时的管理层会把这把成功变成一个问题——他们忽视了传统的实体零售渠道,而这个渠道在疫情过去后已经复苏,如此一来,简直是给竞争对手敞开了大门。公平地说,还有其他问题,比如越来越依赖时尚潮流,而较少依赖传统的运动用途。不过,好消息是今年换了首席执行官。我们看到许多评论员在琢磨美国经济为何如此成功。也许一个原因是,当高管表现不佳时,扣动扳机的速度更快。在这一背景下,我们注意到联合利华的股价在 2024 年上涨了 20%。我们期待耐克新管理层的动向,毕竟他们接手了该领域仍然占据主导地位的市场份额。
Nike is a stock we bought after the share price fall during the pandemic when investors seemed convinced there would be many fewer buyers of trainers. In fact, Nike had made great strides in online marketing and fulfilment. What we hadn’t realised was that the then management would parlay this success into a problem by ignoring the traditional bricks & mortar retail channel, which has recovered as the pandemic passed, and in so doing open the door literally to competition. To be fair there have been other issues such as an increasing dependence on fashion and less on traditional exercise uses. However, the good news is that there has been a change of CEO this year. We see many commentators musing about the reasons why the US economy is so successful. Perhaps one reason is a quicker finger on the trigger when top executives do not deliver. In which context we note that Unilever’s shares were up 20% in 2024. We await developments from Nike’s new management who have after all inherited what is still the dominant market share in the sector.
布朗-福曼(Brown-Forman),全球五大酒业公司之一,杰克丹尼(Jack Daniel's)田纳西威士忌的酿造商,因疫情高峰期后消费下滑而承压,而且可能已显现出减肥药不利影响的早期迹象。本年度我们卖掉了帝亚吉欧(Diageo)的持股,这点稍后再谈,但保留布朗-福曼的仓位,等于在一个长期具备良好商业特征的行业里留了一席之地:家族控股可能带来潜在好处,有利于长远决策;而且相较帝亚吉欧,其业务更偏高端烈酒,这或许有助于缓冲减肥药的影响(“喝得少,但喝得好”)。这家公司熬过了禁酒令,所以我们真心指望,它的基因里确实有些东西能帮它扛过眼下的逆境。
Brown-Forman, one of the world’s top five drinks companies and the distiller of Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey has suffered from the fall in consumption from the pandemic highs and is probably seeing early signs of the adverse impact of weight loss drugs. We sold our Diageo stake during the year which I will cover later but retaining Brown-Forman keeps a foothold in what has long been a sector with good business characteristics and which has the potential benefits of family control, which can promote good long-term decision making, and a larger bias towards premium spirits than Diageo which may help obviate the impact of weight loss drugs (‘drink less but better quality’). It is a company which survived Prohibition so we hope there is literally something in the DNA to help with these adverse circumstances.
诺和诺德堪称 2024 年我们表现最令人意外的差劲标的。它仍是减肥药市场的领头羊,毕竟这类药物由它率先开创,全年还接连传来此类药物对其他病症疗效显著的消息,以及药监机构似乎愿意批准的适应症扩展申请。然而,其股价不仅下跌 10%,年末市盈率还只有最接近的竞争对手礼来的一半。
Novo Nordisk was arguably our most surprising poor performer in 2024. It remains the market leader in weight loss drugs, which it pioneered, and the year was marked by a stream of news about other conditions which these drugs treat effectively and label expansion applications which drug regulators seem willing to approve. Yet not only did the share price fall 10% but it finished the year on a P/E ratio half that of its nearest competitor Eli Lilly.
在投资中,满怀希望地前行永远比抵达终点更好,制药公司之间确实正展开一场开发竞品药物的军备竞赛。然而,我们面对的依然是诺和诺德这家市场领导者,它拥有生产和标签优势,应能维持这一地位,其收入正以每年 20% 的速度增长。此外,我们最初买入诺和诺德是因为它在药物发现上的激进方法,也不排除未来会有进一步的发展。
3 In investment it is always better to travel hopefully than to arrive and there is certainly an arms race going on amongst drug companies to develop competitor drugs. Yet we are still dealing with a company in Novo which is the market leader and holds production and labelling advantages which should sustain that position, with revenues that are growing at 20% p.a. Moreover, we originally bought Novo because of its radical approach to drug discovery and would not rule out further developments.
本年度,基金表现的前五大贡献者分别是:
For the year, the top five contributors to the Fund’s performance were:
股票 归因
Meta 平台 +4.1%
微软 +1.6%
菲利普·莫里斯 +1.5%
自动数据处理公司 +1.3%
史赛克 +1.3%
来源:道富银行
Stock Attribution Meta Platforms +4.1% Microsoft +1.6% Philip Morris +1.5% Automatic Data Processing +1.3% Stryker +1.3% Source: State Street
对于 Meta 和微软,我打算直接重复去年信中的评论,只是把次数更新一下:
For Meta and Microsoft I am simply going to repeat my comment from last year’s letter albeit with the number of times updated:
Meta Platforms(原 Facebook)的表现让我琢磨,我是不是该设一只基金,专投我们投资组合里每年挨最多批评的那一只股票。这是 Meta 第四次登上贡献榜前列,而微软已是第九次上榜——2011 年我们以每股约 25 美元开始买入时招来激烈指责(2023 年底股价 376 美元)。2024 年底的股价为 422 美元。
‘Meta Platforms’ (formerly Facebook) performance makes me wonder whether I should have a fund which invests solely in the one stock in our portfolio each year for which we have received the most critical comments. Meta makes its fourth appearance in this list of top contributors while Microsoft appears for the ninth time having attracted strident criticism when we started buying at about $25 a share in 2011 (2023 year end price $376).’ 2024 year end price was $422.
菲利普·莫里斯第四次入选,继续展现出其行业领先地进军减害产品(RRPs)的好处,例如加热不燃烧烟草制品,以及收购瑞典火柴公司及其尼古丁袋业务。判断有些事情是否正确,看看谁在反对就知道了。那些政府和运作失灵的卫生组织,立场坚定地反对这些减害产品——而事实证明,这些产品在降低吸烟者风险方面是无价的助力——这又是一个信号,说明菲利普·莫里斯走对了路。
Philip Morris makes its 4th appearance as it continues to show the benefits of its industry leading move into Reduced Risk Products (‘RRPs’) such as heat not burn tobacco products and its acquisition of Swedish Match with its nicotine pouch business. You can tell when some things are right by the people who oppose them. The governments and dysfunctional health organisations who have set their stance against these RRPs, which are proving to be an invaluable aid in reducing risk to smokers, is yet another indicator that Philip Morris is on the right track.
ADP 第二次入选,继续保持着它那钟摆式的表现。就业绩而言,它很少大放异彩,但也不会让人失望,这使得它成为我们策略中的一只好股票。
ADP which makes its 2nd appearance continues its metronomic performance. It rarely shoots the lights out in terms of performance but then neither does it disappoint which makes it a good stock for our strategy.
史赛克公司第五次入选,它正受益于疫情期间积压下来的择期手术逐步得到处理。
4 Stryker, which is making its 5th appearance, is benefitting from work on the backlog of elective surgical procedures which built up during the pandemic.
鉴于前五大贡献者中多次出现老面孔,我忍不住要重复我们的一句口头禅:“赚钱靠老朋友”。然而,今年这几位屡次上榜的老朋友中有三位却成了拖累,分别是欧莱雅、IDEXX 和诺和诺德。不过,如果要说的话,我更愿意把这视为它们长期业绩中的一个小插曲,我们打算(大体上)耐心等待它们重返佳绩。在我们看来,它们实在太过优秀,不能轻易卖出,以免在潮水转向时错失投资机会。
Given the number of repeat appearances in our top five contributors I am tempted to repeat one of our mantras which is that ‘You make money with old friends’. However, three of those old friends which have been repeat contributors were detractors this year, namely L’Oréal, IDEXX and Novo Nordisk. However, if anything I would regard this as a blip in their long-term record and we intend to (mostly) patiently await a return to form. In our view they are simply too good to sell and risk being uninvested when the tide turns.
我们继续采用简单的三步投资策略:
We continue to apply a simple three step investment strategy:
• 买入好公司
• 不要出价过高
• 什么都不做
• Buy good companies • Don’t overpay • Do nothing
我来逐一检视我们在每个方面做得怎么样。
I will review how we are doing against each of those in turn.
与往常一样,我们力求为您揭示这些标准中首要且最重要的一项——我们是否持有优质公司。为此,我们提供以下表格,展示如果 Fundsmith 股票基金不是一只基金,而是一家公司,并采用“透视”会计准则核算其在投资组合中所持股份,其状况将如何,同时与市场基准——此处为 FTSE 100 和标普 500 指数——进行对比。此表也向您展示了投资组合随时间演变的过程。
As usual we seek to give some insight into the first and most important of these — whether we own good companies — by giving you the following table which shows what Fundsmith Equity Fund would be like if instead of being a fund it was a company and accounted for the stakes which it owns in the portfolio on a ‘look- through’ basis, and compares this with the market, in this case the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500. This also shows you how the portfolio has evolved over time.
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
截至年末 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2024 2024
Fundsmith 股票基金投资组合 标普 500 富时 100
S&P FTSE Fundsmith Equity Fund Portfolio 500 100 Year ended 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2024 2024
ROCE(资本回报率) 28% 29% 29% 25% 28% 32% 32% 32% 16% 17%
毛利率 63% 65% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 64% 45% 42%
营业利润率 26% 28% 27% 23% 26% 28% 29% 30% 16% 15%
现金转化率 102% 95% 97% 101% 95% 88% 91% 85% 85% 90%
利息保障倍数 17x 17x 16x 16x 23x 20x 20x 27x 9x 9x
来源:Fundsmith LLP/彭博。
ROCE(资本回报率)、毛利率、营业利润率和现金转化率是 Fundsmith 股票基金所投资公司的加权平均值,以及 FTSE 100 和标普 500 指数的平均值。FTSE 100 和标普 500 的数据剔除金融类股票。利息保障倍数为中位数。
2017–2019 年的比率基于截至 12 月 31 日的最新财年报告,2020–24 年的比率为滚动十二个月数据,按彭博定义计算。
现金转化率以每股自由现金流与每股净收益之比衡量。
ROCE 28% 29% 29% 25% 28% 32% 32% 32% 16% 17% Gross Margin 63% 65% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 64% 45% 42% Operating Margin 26% 28% 27% 23% 26% 28% 29% 30% 16% 15% Cash Conversion 102% 95% 97% 101% 95% 88% 91% 85% 85% 90% Interest Cover 17x 17x 16x 16x 23x 20x 20x 27x 9x 9x Source: Fundsmith LLP/Bloomberg. ROCE (Return on Capital Employed), Gross Margin, Operating Margin and Cash Conversion are the weighted mean of the underlying companies invested in by the Fundsmith Equity Fund and mean for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Indices. The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 numbers exclude financial stocks. Interest Cover is median. 2017–2019 ratios are based on last reported fiscal year accounts as of 31 st December and for 2020–24 are Trailing Twelve Months and as defined by Bloomberg. Cash Conversion compares Free Cash Flow per Share with Net Income per Share.
2024 年,投资组合中各家公司的经营利润率高于以往。毛利率和资本回报率保持稳定。重要的是,所有这些指标仍明显……
In 2024 operating profit margins were higher in the portfolio companies than in the past. Gross margins and return on capital were steady. Importantly all of these metrics remain significantly
5
在通货膨胀时期,持有那些具有高回报率和高毛利率的公司股票,比持有主要指数(其中也包括我们的公司)中的公司股票更有利。此外,如果你在通货膨胀期间持有公司股份,那么选择那些回报率高、毛利率也高的公司会更好。
5 better than the companies in the main indices (which include our companies). Moreover, if you own shares in companies during a period of inflation it is better to own those with high returns and gross margins.
持续高资本回报率是我们寻找投资标的时看重的一个信号。另一个则是增长来源——如果企业无法增长,并以如此高的回报率部署更多资本,高回报意义也不大。那么,2024 年我们旗下企业在这方面的表现如何?加权平均自由现金流(即企业支付除股息外一切开支后产生的现金,也是我们偏好的衡量指标)在 2024 年增长了 14%。
Consistently high returns on capital are one sign we look for when seeking companies to invest in. Another is a source of growth — high returns are not much use if the business is not able to grow and deploy more capital at these high rates. So how did our companies fare in that respect in 2024? The weighted average free cash flow (the cash the companies generate after paying for everything except the dividend, and our preferred measure) grew by 14% in 2024.
唯一仍落后于历史表现水平的指标是现金转化率,也就是利润中有多少以现金形式兑现。虽然该比率在 2023 年略有回升至 91%,但仍低于约 100% 的历史水平,并在 2024 年再次下滑至 85%。原因是一小批公司的资本支出急剧攀升:Alphabet、微软、Meta 和诺和诺德。诺和诺德正加紧建设生产能力,以供应足够多的减肥药 Wegovy,全年结束时已斥资 100 亿欧元收购三处生产设施。科技公司则在竞相建设以 GPU 芯片和数据中心为形态的人工智能(AI)算力。这场军备竞赛能否为所投入的巨额资金带来足够的利润和回报,仍是一个悬而未决的问题,稍后我会再谈。至少诺和诺德是在为一种需求明确、盈利可期且当前具有竞争优势的药物扩充产能。
The only metric which continues to lag its historical performance is cash conversion — the degree to which profits are delivered in cash. Although this recovered slightly to 91% in 2023, this is still below its historical level of around 100% and it declined again in 2024 to 85%. This was due to a sharp rise in capital expenditure at a small group of companies: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Novo Nordisk. Novo is racing to build production capacity to supply enough of its weight loss drug Wegovy and finished the year spending €10 billion purchasing three manufacturing sites. The tech companies are in a race to build capacity of Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) in the form of GPU chips and data centres. Whether this arms race produces adequate profits and returns for the amounts expended remains an open question to which I will return later. At least Novo is building capacity to produce a drug for which there is established demand and profitability and in which it currently has a competitive advantage.
我们投资组合中各家公司的平均创立年份为 1920 年。合计来看,它们已走过一个多世纪。
The average year of foundation of our portfolio companies at the year-end was 1920. Collectively they are over a century old.
策略的第二条腿在于估值。2024 年初,投资组合的加权平均自由现金流收益率(即产生的自由现金流占市值的百分比)为 3.0%,年末时为 3.1%。年末标普 500 指数的自由现金流收益率中位数为 3.7%。
The second leg of our strategy is about valuation. The weighted average free cash flow (‘FCF’) yield (the free cash flow generated as a percentage of the market value) of the portfolio at the outset of 2024 was 3.0% and ended the year at 3.1%. The year-end median FCF yield on the S&P 500 was 3.7%.
我们的投资组合由那些从根本上远优于标普 500 指数成分股平均水平的公司构成,因此它们的估值高于标普 500 指数成分股的平均值也就不足为奇。这本身并不意味着这些股票必然昂贵,正如低评级也不代表股票便宜一样。然而,我们预计,如果我们的投资组合公司现金转化率如预期般提高,部分估值差距将在 2025 年消除。
Our portfolio consists of companies that are fundamentally a lot better than the average of those in the S&P 500, so it is no surprise that they are valued more highly than the average S&P 500 company. In itself this does not necessarily make the stocks expensive, any more than a lowly rating makes a stock cheap. However, we expect some of this disparity in valuation to be eradicated in 2025 if, as we expect, the cash conversion of our portfolio companies improves.
<paragraph>
说到我们策略的第三条腿,用一句话概括就是“什么都不做”。将投资组合的换手率降到最低,始终是我们的目标之一,本期我们再次做到了这一点,期间换手率为 3.2%。或许更直观的数据是,这一年里,我们花在主动交易上的费用仅占基金平均净值的 0.002%(即万分之一基点),这一数字不包括因申购和赎回产生的交易成本,因为那些是被动发生的。我们卖出了三家公司,买入了两家。和去年一样,这听起来似乎换手不少,但实际换手率并不高,因为有些买卖的持仓规模很小。自 2010 年成立以来,我们一直持有其中四家投资组合公司,有九家持有超过十年,十五家持有超过五年。
</paragraph>
Turning to the third leg of our strategy, which we succinctly describe as ‘Do nothing’, minimising portfolio turnover remains one of our 6 objectives and this was again achieved with a portfolio turnover of 3.2% during the period. It is perhaps more helpful to know that we spent a total of just 0.002% (one fifth of a basis point) of the Fund’s average value over the year on voluntary dealing (which excludes dealing costs associated with subscriptions and redemptions as these are involuntary). We sold three companies and purchased two. As last year this may seem like a lot of names for what is not a lot of turnover as in some cases the size of the holding sold or bought was small. We have held four of the portfolio companies since inception in 2010, nine for more than ten years and 15 for over five years.
这为什么很重要?因为它有助于将成本降到最低,而最小化投资成本是投资者取得满意结果的关键贡献。投资者、评论员和顾问们常常关注,有时甚至执迷于年度管理费(AMC)或持续费用率(OCF),后者包含了基金收取的超过 AMC 的一些其他费用。2024 年 T 类累积份额的 OCF 为 1.04%。问题在于,OCF 没有涵盖一个重要成本要素——交易成本。当基金经理买卖交易时,基金通常会承担支付给经纪商的佣金、交易股票的买卖价差,以及在某些情况下的交易税,如英国的印花税。这些成本可能显著增加基金的总费用,却未被计入 OCF。
Why is this important? It helps to minimise costs and minimising the costs of investment is a vital contribution to achieving a satisfactory outcome as an investor. Too often investors, commentators and advisers focus on, or in some cases obsess about, the Annual Management Charge (‘AMC’) or the Ongoing Charges Figure (‘OCF’), which includes some costs over and above the AMC, which are charged to the Fund. The OCF for 2024 for the T Class Accumulation shares was 1.04%. The trouble is that the OCF does not include an important element of costs — the costs of dealing. When a fund manager deals by buying or selling, the fund typically incurs the cost of commission paid to a broker, the bid-offer spread on the stocks dealt in and, in some cases, transaction taxes such as stamp duty in the UK. This can add significantly to the costs of a fund, yet it is not included in the OCF.
我们提供了自己计算的总成本口径,涵盖交易成本在内,称之为投资总成本(TCI)。2024 年 T 类累计份额的 TCI 为 1.05%,包含了基金进出流量产生的全部交易成本,不单是我们主动交易的部分。我们感到欣慰的是,计入交易成本后,TCI 仅比持续费率(OCF)高出 0.01%(1 个基点)。不过,我们仍要提醒,别对费用过于执着,以至于忽略了基金的业绩表现。值得指出的是,本信开头列出的本基金业绩,已经扣除了所有费用,这才是应该关注的核心。
We provide our own version of this total cost including dealing costs, which we have termed the Total Cost of Investment (‘TCI’). For the T Class Accumulation shares in 2024 the TCI was 1.05%, including all costs of dealing for flows into and out of the Fund, not just our voluntary dealing. We are pleased that our TCI is just 0.01% (1 basis point) above our OCF when transaction costs are taken into account. However, we would again caution against becoming obsessed with charges to such an extent that you lose focus on the performance of funds. It is worth pointing out that the performance of our Fund tabled at the beginning of this letter is after charging all fees which should surely be the main focus.
今年,我们卖掉了帝亚吉欧、味好美和苹果的持股。
We sold our stakes in Diageo, McCormick and Apple during the year.
我们自成立起便持有帝亚吉欧,其新管理层暴露出问题,对拉丁美洲业务信息披露不足,该业务业绩远逊于当地行业水平。此外,我们怀疑整个酒类行业正处于减肥药负面冲击的初期阶段。事实上,这类药物很可能最终会被用于治疗酗酒,其影响消费之效显而易见。
Diageo, which we had owned since inception, has exhibited problems with its new management, shown by a lack of information about its Latin American business which produced results far worse than the sector in this area. Moreover, we suspect the entire drinks sector is in the early stages of being impacted negatively by weight loss drugs. Indeed, it seems likely that the drugs will eventually be used to treat alcoholism such is their effect on consumption.
7
我们卖出了味好美公司(McCormick),因为该公司在转嫁投入成本通胀方面的反应迟缓,令人失望,导致其利润率受到挤压,加之其面对自有品牌竞争的敞口——随着通胀促使消费者转向低价产品,这一竞争已更加激烈。
7 We sold McCormick as we had been disappointed by the slow response which the company exhibited in its ability to pass on input cost inflation so compressing its margins, together with its exposure to own label competition which has stiffened as inflation has caused consumers to trade down.
两年前,我们开始买入苹果股票,每股约 156 美元,当时其市盈率低于标普 500 指数平均水平,服务收入增长也让我们多少确信,外界热议的、将用户与其产品绑定的生态系统或许确实存在。我们准确预判了随后几个报告期内销售增长会乏善可陈,于是买入了少量股份,希望等糟糕的销售表现兑现后再加仓。我们对销售表现的判断没错——去年其销售仅增长 2%——但股价却强势上涨,最终估值比标普 500 指数高出约 50%,这一点我们看错了。在这样的背景下,我们无意继续增持,而它又占着投资组合的位置,于是我们卖掉了所持股份。
We began purchasing Apple two years ago at about $156 a share when its P/E was below the S&P 500 average and the growth in service revenues had somewhat convinced us that the much talked about ecosystem, tying its users to the products, might really exist. We correctly foresaw a number of reporting periods ahead when sales growth would be lacklustre and so bought a small stake hoping to add to it as the poor sales performance came to pass. We were right about the sales performance — its sales grew just 2% last year — but wrong about the share price which rose strongly, placing the shares on a rating about 50% higher than the S&P 500. We were not going to buy more stock against that background and it was occupying a place in our portfolio and so we sold our stake.
那一年,我们开始买入阿特拉斯·科普柯(Atlas Copco)和德州仪器(Texas Instruments)的股份。
We started purchasing stakes in Atlas Copco and Texas Instruments during the year.
阿特拉斯·科普柯是一家瑞典工业企业,生产压缩机、真空设备、电动及气动工具。这家公司有三个特点吸引我们:
Atlas Copco is a Swedish industrial company which makes compressors, vacuum equipment, electrical and pneumatic tools and which has three characteristics which we find attractive:
它把大部分制造环节外包出去,因此资本占用很轻,这提升了回报率。
• it outsources much of the manufacturing so making it capital light which enhances returns;
• 高度分散化,拥有超过 600 家运营实体,这些实体在应对本地市场时拥有相当大的自主权;并且
• it is highly decentralised with over 600 operating entities which have considerable autonomy in addressing their local market; and
瓦伦贝格家族的控股工具持有控股权,这应当带来良好的长期决策,因为他们至今已在这行干了 151 年。
• there is a controlling stake held by the Wallenberg family vehicle which should lead to good long-term decision-making since they have been in business for 151 years this year.
德州仪器是一家模拟和嵌入式微处理器制造商,其产品广泛应用于各类消费电子、工业设备、汽车和通信设备。公司正在半导体周期可能回升之前提前投资,尽管现在显而易见并不存在单一的周期。英伟达所生产的 GPU 需求远未处于下行周期,反而呈现登月般的增长轨迹,而且普通汽车芯片、电动汽车芯片以及其他电器芯片之间的周期差异明显,不同地区之间也各不相同。不过,德州仪器有着长期在需求回升之前大幅提前投资并从中获得丰厚回报的历史。它正在——
Texas Instruments is a manufacturer of analogue and embedded microprocessors which go into a wide range of consumer and industrial devices, automobiles, and communications equipment. It is investing ahead of a probable upturn in the semiconductor cycle although it is now apparent that there is not one cycle. Demand for GPUs of the sort made by Nvidia far from being in a down cycle has been on a lunar trajectory, and there are clear differences between the cycle for regular automotive chips and chips for electric vehicles or chips for other appliances, as well as between regions. However, Texas Instruments has a long history of investing well ahead of upswings in demand and producing handsome returns from it. It is
同时也是半导体制造回流美国的受益者,此举旨在规避台湾和中国大陆的地缘政治风险。
8 also a beneficiary of the onshoring of semiconductor manufacturing to avoid the geopolitical risks of Taiwan and China.
去年我在信里花了不少篇幅,讨论人工智能热潮的兴起,说它是推动“七圣徒”里大部分股票上涨的主要动力之一,尤其是英伟达。这波繁荣或者说炒作(你自己选个说法)在 2024 年继续,但有些特征变了。一个变化是,它可能变得更聚焦了。之前,AI 被视为我们曾持有过的那些公司股价的推手,比如 Adobe 和 Intuit,这两家都因为搞了定价过高、看起来考虑不周的收购或试图收购,在我们这儿留下了污点。2024 年,这两家公司的表现都明显跑输大盘,因为投资者似乎终于看清,AI 未必能带来立竿见影或普遍的好处,甚至可能有害。反过来,这倒让投资者的注意力集中到 AI 热潮下少数几个真正的直接受益者身上,比如英伟达。
Last year I spent some time in this letter discussing the rise of interest in AI, as one of the driving forces behind the rise of most of the Magnificent Seven stocks and especially Nvidia. This boom/hype (you choose) continued in 2024, but some of its characteristics changed. One is that it may have become more focused. It had been seen as a driver of share prices of companies which we had previously held such as Adobe and Intuit, both of which had blotted their copybook with us by engaging in over-priced and seemingly ill- conceived acquisitions or attempted acquisitions. Both of them significantly underperformed the market in 2024 as reality seemed to dawn on investors that AI may not be of immediate and/or universal benefit and could actually be detrimental. Conversely, this has had the effect of focusing investors’ attention on fewer real immediate beneficiaries of the AI boom such as Nvidia.
这一时期,评论员们频频发问:AI 热潮是否与互联网泡沫时代如出一辙,结局是否也会殊途同归。对此,我不禁想起马克·吐温的话:“历史不会重演,但总会押韵。”无疑,AI 的某些狂热是炒作,正如当年的互联网狂热一般,但两者之间存在几个关键差异:
During this period commentators have frequently asked whether the AI boom is the same as the Dotcom era and therefore will have a similar ending. In response I am tempted to quote Mark Twain, ‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.’ Undoubtedly some of the AI enthusiasm is hype, as was the Dotcom mania, but there are a couple of key differences:
1. 人工智能热潮中的领军企业英伟达非常赚钱,尽管其历史上也经历过一些低谷,而在互联网泡沫时期,很多股价表现是由点击量和眼球数驱动的,当时公司既没有利润甚至没有收入。即便是那些在互联网泡沫破裂后如凤凰涅槃般崛起的企业,比如亚马逊,当时也尚未盈利;而且
1. The leading company in the AI boom, Nvidia, is very profitable, albeit with a history of some downturns, whereas in the Dotcom boom a lot of the share price performance was driven by reference to clicks and eyeballs in the absence of any profits or even revenues. Even companies which were to rise Phoenix-like from the ashes after the Dotcom meltdown, such as Amazon, were not yet profitable; and
2. 所谓被动型基金或指数基金的兴起。
2. The rise of so-called passive or index funds.
指数基金的崛起
16,000
主动型资产 被动型资产
14,000
The Rise of Index Funds 16,000 Active Assets Passive Assets 14,000
12,000
12,000
US$ Billions
10,000
US$ Billions 10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
0
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 2023
0 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 2023
资料来源:Morningstar。
2023 年底,通过指数基金进行的被动投资规模首次超过了主动型基金的资产规模。目前,被动基金已占资产管理规模(‘AUM’)的一半以上。然而,在互联网泡沫时期,被动基金仅占资产管理规模的 10% 左右。一如既往,我们在投资中有时使用的标签并不总能帮助我们理解事物。指数基金并非真正意义上的被动策略。或许没有基金经理在做投资决策,但这种指数投资实际上是一种动量策略。
Source: Morningstar. 9 In late 2023 passive investment via index funds exceeded the amount of assets held in active funds for the first time. They are now more than half of Assets Under Management (‘AUM’). However, during the Dotcom boom only about 10% of AUM was in passive funds. As ever we do not always aid understanding with the labels which we sometimes use in investment. Index funds are not truly a passive strategy. There may be no fund manager taking investment decisions, but such index investing is in fact a momentum strategy.
绝大多数指数基金都采用市值加权,与它们所跟踪的指数一样。指数基金中持有各公司的规模,是基于这些公司的市值与指数总市值的比较。因此,当资金流入指数基金时,最大份额会流向最大的公司,反之,资金流出时也遵循同样的逻辑。
The vast majority of index funds are market capitalisation weighted, like the indices on which they are based. The size of holdings in companies in the index fund is based upon their market value compared with the market value of the index. So when there are inflows to index funds the largest portion goes to the largest companies, and vice versa when there are outflows.
结果是,随着资金从主动型基金流向指数基金(这一趋势一直在持续),这推高了那些最大公司的股价表现,而这些公司之所以成为市值最大的公司,正是因为它们的股票此前表现优异。
The result is that as money flows out of active funds and into index funds, as it has been doing, it drives the performance of the largest companies which are companies whose shares have already performed well which is how they came to be the largest companies by market value.
这是一个自我强化的反馈循环,它会一直运转,直到失效为止。举例来说,如果经济衰退导致科技支出减少——如今科技支出占总支出比例如此之高,已不可能不随周期波动——那么一个脆弱点可能就是人工智能方面的投入,因为它目前尚未带来多少收入。若届时大型企业业绩令人失望,其股价很可能剧烈反应,对指数表现的拖累将超过那些低配这些股票的主动型基金经理。但即便未来确有类似情景等着我们,具体由什么引发、何时发生,都难以甚至无法预判。
This is a self-reinforcing feedback loop which will operate until it doesn’t. For example, were there to be an economic downturn which led to a reduction in tech spending, which is now so large a proportion of overall spending that it cannot be non-cyclical, one area of vulnerability might be spending on AI as it is not currently generating much revenue. Were the largest companies then to produce disappointing results, their share prices are likely to react badly which will drag down the index performance more than that of those active managers who are underweight in these stocks. But even if some scenario like this awaits us in the future, what exactly will cause this and when it may occur is difficult or impossible to predict.
这就回到了本信开头提到的波动性话题。我们不认同真正的波动性应由夏普比率或索提诺比率这类指标来衡量,它们关注的是基金价格或股价的波动,但这类指标却被广泛接受为衡量标准。此外,虽然投资者理性上应聚焦于所投企业基本价值的波动,并接受更高的价格波动以换取更高回报,但说起来容易做起来难。一个问题是,当价格波动剧烈向下时,很难保持冷静并专注于基本面特征。以英伟达这样的股票为例,它过去两年表现惊人,但就在 2021–2022 年,其股价曾跌去三分之二以上。在这种情形下,你我还会安心持有它吗?如果不会,那么这种股价表现是否会让我们做出糟糕的决策?我们有过持有此类股票的经验,Meta 的表现就是证明,但鉴于这类股票持有难度之大,也许我们的投资组合中任何时候有一只就足够了。2021–2022 年 Meta 股价下跌了 76%,尽管我们顶住压力继续持有,最终受益,但当时的 Meta 与现在的英伟达之间有几个关键差异:
Which brings me back to the subject of volatility which was raised at the start of this letter. We don’t agree that true volatility is measured by ratios such as the Sharpe or Sortino ratio which look at the volatility of fund prices or share prices, but they are widely accepted as a measure. Moreover, whilst investors should rationally focus on volatility in the fundamental value of the businesses they invest in and accept higher price volatility if this leads to higher returns, it is easier said than done. One problem is that it is difficult to remain calm and focus on the fundamental characteristics when the price volatility is sharply negative. Take a stock like Nvidia, which has been a spectacular performer for the past two years. The Nvidia share price fell by over two thirds as recently as 2021–2022. Would we or you feel comfortable owning it in such circumstances, and if not, might that share price performance cause us to make poor decisions? We have experience owning this sort of stock, as the performance of 10 Meta demonstrates, but given how difficult they can be to own maybe one is enough for our portfolio at any one time. In 2021–2022 Meta’s stock price fell by 76%, but whilst we continued to own it despite this, to our current benefit, there are several key differences between the situation of Meta then and Nvidia now:
Meta 服务着约 33 亿消费者和数百万广告主。英伟达的需求则几乎完全集中在少数几家所谓的超大規模数据中心运营商手中,它们正大举建设数据中心,以支撑 AI 大语言模型的处理。
• Meta serves some 3.3 billion consumers and several million advertisers. Nvidia’s demand is dominated by a literal handful of so-called hyperscalers building data centres to handle Large Language Models for AI.
人们有时会问我们,在经济低迷时期持有消费类股票是否危险。我们的回答是,确实危险,但那种情况下远离消费者,比这更危险。如果你觉得经济下行时消费公司的表现令人担忧,那就等着看它们的供应商会怎样,尤其是像工厂机械这类资本设备的供应商。消费公司的销售收入下滑 5% 到 10%,就可能让一些供应商的订单彻底停摆。英伟达供应的是资本品——它最新一代 GPU 服务器单价约 300 万美元——一旦服务消费者的客户需求大幅下滑,站在安全距离外旁观,场面会很值得一看。
• People sometimes ask us whether it is dangerous to own consumer stocks in an economic downturn. To which we reply yes, but it is not as dangerous as not being close to the consumer in those circumstances. If you think the performance of consumer companies is a worry in a downturn wait until you see what happens to their suppliers, especially the suppliers of capital equipment like factory machinery. A 5-10% downturn in sales revenues at the consumer companies can translate into a cessation of orders for some suppliers. Nvidia supplies capital goods — its latest generation GPU server sells for about $3m each — and a significant downturn in demand from its clients who do service consumers would be interesting to watch from a safe distance.
在股价下跌之前,Meta 的市盈率为 28 倍,而英伟达目前的市盈率则高达 54 倍。
• Before its share price fall Meta was on a P/E of 28x whereas Nvidia is currently on a P/E of 54x.
这一切让我再次提醒大家,Fundsmith 股票基金的目标是什么:我们追求的是获得满意回报的高概率,而非追求可能极为出色或极为糟糕的惊人回报。
最后,再次祝愿您新年快乐,感谢您对我们基金一如既往的支持。
此致
敬礼
All of which brings me to a reminder of what we are seeking to achieve with the Fundsmith Equity Fund and that is to produce a high likelihood of a satisfactory return rather than the chance of a spectacular return which could be spectacularly good or spectacularly bad. Finally, once more I wish you a happy New Year and thank you for your continued support for our Fund. Yours sincerely,
特里·史密斯
首席执行官
Fundsmith 律师事务所
Terry Smith CEO Fundsmith LLP
免责声明:Fundsmith 股票基金的关键投资者信息文件及英文版招募说明书可通过 Fundsmith 网站获取,或应要求索取;投资者在购买该基金份额前应查阅这些文件。过往业绩并不必然预示未来表现。投资价值及其收益可能下跌也可能上涨,并受汇率变动的影响。
Disclaimer: A Key Investor Information Document and an English language prospectus for the Fundsmith Equity Fund are available via the Fundsmith website or on request and investors should consult these documents before purchasing shares in the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and be affected by changes in exchange
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利率,并且您可能无法收回原始投资金额。Fundsmith LLP 不提供投资建议,也不对其产品的适用性作出任何推荐。本文件为金融推广材料,由获得英国金融行为监管局授权并监管的 Fundsmith LLP 发布。
11 rates, and you may not get back the amount of your original investment. Fundsmith LLP does not offer investment advice or make any recommendations regarding the suitability of its products. This document is a financial promotion and is communicated by Fundsmith LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
此处所表达的观点和意见均为 Fundsmith 截至本函日期之观点,并会随当前市场和经济状况而变动,且不会予以更新或补充。
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of Fundsmith as of the date hereof and are subject to change based on prevailing market and economic conditions and will not be updated or supplemented.
数据来源:Fundsmith LLP、彭博和 FE Analytics,除非另有说明。
Sources: Fundsmith LLP, Bloomberg and FE Analytics unless otherwise stated.
数据截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,除非另有说明。
Data is as at 31st December 2024 unless otherwise stated.
投资组合换手率是衡量基金交易活跃程度的指标,计算方法为:基金的总买入与卖出股份数减去总申购与赎回股份数,再除以基金的平均资产净值。
Portfolio turnover is a measure of the fund's trading activity and has been calculated by taking the total share purchases and sales less total creations and liquidations divided by the average net asset value of the fund.
市盈率与自由现金流收益率均基于截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的最近十二个月数据,另有说明的除外。若该期间内出现净亏损,则不计算百分比变动。
P/E ratios and Free Cash Flow Yields are based on trailing twelve month data and as at 31st December 2024 unless otherwise stated. Percentage change is not calculated if the TTM period contains a net loss.
MSCI 世界指数是一个涵盖全球各行业股票的发达市场指数,因此,鉴于该基金的投资目标和政策,将其作为比较基准是合理的。
The MSCI World Index is a developed world index of global equities across all sectors and, as such, is a fair comparison given the fund's investment objective and policy.
投资协会全球行业类别(英镑计价)代表那些将至少 80% 的资产全球配置于股票市场的基金。这便于投资者与具有大致相似特征的基金进行比较。
The Investment Association Global Sector in Sterling is representative of funds that invest at least 80% of their assets globally in equities. This facilitates a comparison against funds with broadly similar characteristics.
彭博英国政府债券 5-10 年指数展示了如果你投资英国政府债券可能获得的收益。
The Bloomberg Bond Indices UK Govt 5-10 yr shows what you might have earnt if you had invested in UK Government Debt.
英镑利率反映了如果你投资于现金本可获得的收益。
The £ Interest Rate shows what you might have earnt if you had invested in cash.
MSCI 世界指数是 MSCI 公司的专属财产。MSCI 对本报告所含任何 MSCI 数据不作任何明示或暗示的保证或陈述,也不承担任何相关责任。MSCI 数据不得进一步分发,或用作其他指数、任何证券或最终产品的基础。本报告未经 MSCI 批准、审阅或制作。全球行业分类标准(GICS)由 MSCI 和标准普尔共同开发,是其专属财产,且“GICS®”是 MSCI 和标准普尔的服务标志。
MSCI World Index is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or final products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s and ‘GICS®’ is a service mark of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s.
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