Fundsmith股票基金——致股东年度信2025
January 2026
January 2026
亲爱的投资者同仁:
Dear Fellow Investor,
这是写给 Fundsmith 股票基金(以下简称“基金”)持有人的第十六封年度信函。
This is the sixteenth annual letter to owners of the Fundsmith Equity Fund (‘Fund’).
下表显示了上一个日历年的业绩数据,以及自 2010 年 11 月 1 日成立以来的累计和年化业绩,并附有多个比较基准。
The table below shows performance figures for the last calendar year and the cumulative and annualised performance since inception on 1st November 2010 and various comparators.
1 月 1 日至 成立至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 索提诺
% 总回报 12 月 31 日
累计 年化 比率 6
2025
1
Fundsmith 股票基金 +0.8 +612.9 +13.8 0.75
股票 2 +12.8 +467.6 +12.1 0.48
IA 全球板块 3 +10.8 +290.8 +9.4 0.42
英国债券 4 +6.1 +31.2 +1.8 n/a
现金 5 +4.2 +23.5 +1.4 n/a
该基金不参照任何基准进行管理,上述比较指标仅供参考。
1
T 类累计份额,扣除费用后,按英国中午时间定价,来源:彭博。
2
MSCI 世界指数,英镑净回报,按美国市场收盘价定价,来源:彭博。
3
来源:Financial Express Analytics。
4
彭博系列英国政府 5-10 年期债券指数,来源:彭博。
5
英镑利率,来源:彭博。
6
索提诺比率自成立至 2025 年 12 月 31 日,无风险利率 3.5%,来源:Financial Express Analytics。
1st Jan to Inception to 31st Dec 2025 Sortino % Total Return 31st Dec Cumulative Annualised Ratio6 2025 1 Fundsmith Equity Fund +0.8 +612.9 +13.8 0.75 Equities2 +12.8 +467.6 +12.1 0.48 IA Global Sector3 +10.8 +290.8 +9.4 0.42 UK Bonds4 +6.1 +31.2 +1.8 n/a Cash5 +4.2 +23.5 +1.4 n/a The Fund is not managed with reference to any benchmark, the above comparators are provided for information purposes only. 1 T Class Accumulation shares, net of fees, priced at noon UK time, source: Bloomberg. 2 MSCI World Index, £ net, priced at US market close, source: Bloomberg. 3 Source: Financial Express Analytics. 4 Bloomberg Series-E UK Govt 5-10 yr Bond Index, source: Bloomberg. 5 £ Interest Rate, source: Bloomberg. 6 Sortino Ratio is since inception to 31.12.25, 3.5% risk free rate, source: Financial Express Analytics.
该表展示了 T 类累计份额的表现,这是最常见的份额类别,也是我所投资的类别,2025 年上涨了 0.8%。
The table shows the performance of the T Class Accumulation shares, the most commonly held share class and one in which I am invested, which rose by 0.8% in 2025.
这一数据与 MSCI 世界指数(以英镑计、股息再投资)12.8% 的涨幅相比,该基金在 2025 年因此跑输了这个比较基准。而从长期视角来看,
This compares with a rise of 12.8% for the MSCI World Index (‘Index’) in sterling with dividends reinvested. The Fund therefore underperformed this comparator in 2025. A longer-term perspective
Fundsmith LLP 获英国金融行为监管局(Financial Conduct Authority)授权并受其监管。在英国与威尔士注册:OC354233。注册办公地址:伦敦卡文迪什广场 33 号,W1G 0PW。
此信息可能有所助益,且无疑与我们的投资目标和策略更为一致。自成立以来,基金年回报率较指数高出 1.7 个百分点,并以显著更低的下行价格波动实现这一表现,索提诺比率(Sortino Ratio)为 0.75,而指数为 0.48。这简单意味着,基金每单位价格波动所获得的回报较指数高出约 56%,关于这一点,稍后详述。
Fundsmith LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England & Wales: OC354233. Registered office: 33 Cavendish Square, London, W1G 0PW. may be useful and is certainly more consistent with our investment aims and strategy. Since inception, the Fund has returned 1.7% p.a. more than the Index and has done so with significantly less downside price volatility as shown by the Sortino Ratio of 0.75 versus 0.48 for the Index. This simply means that the Fund has returned about 56% more than the Index for each unit of price volatility, of which more later.
我们的基金自 2010 年 11 月成立以来,在投资协会全球板块的 155 只基金中表现位列第三,回报率比该板块平均水平高出 322 个百分点。
Our Fund is the third best performer in the Investment Association Global sector of 155 funds since its inception in November 2010, with a return 322 percentage points above the sector average.
跑赢市场,甚至实现正收益,都不该是你对我们基金每个年度或报告期的期待。2025 年,跑赢市场再次成为一件难事。
Outperforming the market or even making a positive return is not something you should expect from our Fund in every year or reporting period, and outperforming the market was challenging once again in 2025.
在说明业绩原因之前,我要先澄清一点:与某些评论人士的暗示相反,我并非试图为我们基金相对表现不佳而“归咎”于任何人或任何事。我所做的是解释,以便我们的投资者清楚了解发生了什么以及为何发生。解释不等于借口。我想知道,如果我们不提供任何解释,那些评论人士或我们的投资者会作何感想。我认为有三个主要问题在起作用。
Before I turn to the reasons for the performance I should explain that contrary to the suggestion of some commentators I am not seeking to ‘blame’ anyone or anything for our Fund’s relative performance. What I am seeking to do is explain it so that our investors have a clear understanding of what has happened and why. An explanation is not an excuse. I wonder how those commentators or our investors would view it if we offered no explanation. I see three main issues at play.
1. Index Concentration
1. Index Concentration
2023 年,少数几只大型“科技”股对回报的主导作用变得如此突出,以至于催生了市场评论员偏爱的那种朗朗上口的标签之一,即所谓的“七圣徒”:Alphabet(谷歌)、亚马逊、苹果、Meta(脸书)、微软、英伟达和特斯拉。2024 年,这一趋势得以延续,英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋多次公开亮相,大谈人工智能(AI)即将带来的计算变革,而这一切当然离不开英伟达的芯片。其结果无异于在赛跑中鸣响了发令枪,大型科技公司——即所谓的超大规模企业——在半导体芯片和数据中心的资本支出上,以军备竞赛般的态势螺旋式攀升,其激烈程度唯有它们的股价表现堪与之匹敌。
The domination of returns by a small group of major ‘technology’ stocks became so pronounced by 2023 that it gave rise to one of those snappy descriptors that market commentators favour with the so-called Magnificent Seven: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. This continued in 2024 after Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, made several public appearances at which he extolled the upcoming transformation of computing by artificial intelligence (‘AI’), powered of course by Nvidia’s chips. The result was akin to firing the starting gun in a race in which capital expenditure on semiconductor chips and data centers by the major tech companies — the so-called hyperscalers — spiralled upwards in an arms race matched only by the performance of their shares.
这些图表展示的,正是这一结果的直观体现:
The result of this can be seen in these charts:
标普 500 指数前十大股票表现集中度
2 Concentration of Performance From Top 10 Stocks in S&P 500
来源:《瑞银全球投资回报年鉴 2025》
Source: UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025
2025 年这一趋势仍在延续,结果到 2025 年底,前十大股票占标普 500 指数总市值的 39%,却贡献了该指数以美元计全部回报的 50%。
It continued in 2025 and as a consequence, the top ten stocks were 39% of the value of the S&P 500 Index (‘S&P’) at the end of 2025 and provided 50% of the total return it delivered in USD.
这与以往有什么不同吗?
Is this different to the past?
美国市场过去 125 年来的集中度
US Market Concentration Over Last 125 years
来源:《瑞银全球投资回报年鉴 2025》
Source: UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025
第二张图表显示,美国市场价值如此集中的情况上一次出现在 1930 年。接下来发生了什么?标普 500 指数直到 1954 年才重新站上 1930 年的高点。尽管如今大多数投资者视此为史前之事,但明智的是要记住,标普 500 指数(而非纳斯达克)直到 2007 年才收复 2000 年的高点,而
This second chart shows that the last time the US market value was this concentrated was in 1930. What happened next? It took until 1954 for the S&P to regain its 1930 high. Although this is regarded as prehistoric by most investors today it is wise to remember that the S&P (not the NASDAQ) did not regain its 2000 high until 2007 and
3
随后又在信贷危机中迅速失去,直到 2013 年才重新夺回。泡沫破裂时,可能造成多年甚至数十年的损失。
3 then promptly lost it again in the Credit Crisis until 2013. When bubbles burst they can cause many lost years or even decades.
近年来,若未曾按市值权重持有其中多数股票,想跑赢指数本身就是难事。我们即便确信这些公司全部属于我们理想中的优质企业——事实并非如此——也不会这样配置。我们认为,全数持有它们会使组合风险过度集中,正如我们不会因为看好饮料行业前景,就把可投范围内那五家饮料公司统统纳入囊中。我们的基金是一个组合,而非针对某一行业的押注。
It was difficult to even perform in line with the index in recent years if you did not own most of these stocks in their market weightings, and we would not do so even if we became convinced that they were all good companies of the sort we seek to invest in, which we are not. It would in our view represent too much of a portfolio risk to own them all, just as we would not own all five of the drinks companies we have in our Investible Universe even if we thought that prospects for the sector were good. Our Fund is a portfolio, not a sectoral bet.
2. 指数基金资产的增长
2. The Growth of Assets in Index Funds
七圣徒和 AI 股票的崛起,还得益于指数基金持有资产规模的壮大。2023 年,美国股票型基金中指数跟踪基金持有的资产占比首次突破 50%。
The rise of the Magnificent Seven and the AI stocks also had a strong tailwind from the increase in assets held in index funds. In 2023 the proportion of US equities fund assets held in index tracking funds passed 50% for the first time.
主动型与被动型基金在美国股票基金资产中的占比
Active vs Passive Fund Share of US Equity Fund Assets
来源:Research Affiliates,数据截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日
Source: Research Affiliates, Data as at 31st Dec 2024
金融服务业有时使用的标签并不利于理解。指数基金和指数 ETF 常被贴上“被动”的标签,与像 Fundsmith 股票基金这样由基金经理做投资决策的“主动”基金相对。所谓“被动”基金大多按市值比例持有股票,以跟踪其投资的指数。这远非通常意义上所说的“被动”,反而使其成了一种动量策略。
The financial services industry sometimes does not aid understanding with the labels it employs. Index funds and index ETFs are often labelled ‘passives’ in contrast with ‘active’ funds, like Fundsmith Equity Fund, which have a fund manager making investment decisions. The ‘passives’ mostly track the index they invest in by holding the stocks in proportion to their market value. Far from being passive in any normally accepted sense of the word, this makes them a momentum strategy.
4
动量投资策略是投资者买入表现强劲的股票。如果你从像 Fundsmith 股票基金这样的主动型基金中赎回资金,投入一只标普 500 指数跟踪基金,那么你的新基金会按市值比例买入指数成分股。目前,其中大约 7% 的资金会流入英伟达,这家公司我们并未持有。大约 35% 的资金会流入“七圣徒”,而我们只持有其中三只股票——Alphabet、Meta 和微软。这给那些我们未持有、却占指数大头的股票额外增添了动量。
4 A momentum investment strategy is one in which the investor buys stocks which are performing strongly. If you redeem money from an active fund like Fundsmith Equity Fund and invest it in an S&P 500 Index tracker fund your new fund will buy the index stocks in proportion to their market value. Currently about 7% of it will go into Nvidia which we do not own. About 35% will go into the Magnificent Seven of which we own only three stocks — Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. This gives added momentum to those stocks we do not own which are a major part of the index.
指数投资先驱、先锋集团(Vanguard)的创始人约翰·博格尔,在 2017 年伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会上被问到,指数基金的资产规模达到什么水平会扭曲市场。他承认存在这样一个水平,尽管他无法确定具体数值。我们可能已经达到了这个水平。
John Bogle, the pioneer of index investing who founded Vanguard, the index fund manager, was asked at the 2017 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting if there was a level of assets in index funds which would distort markets and he agreed that there was, although he had no method of determining that level. We may already have reached it.
2021 年,位于马萨诸塞州剑桥市的美国全国经济研究所(NBER)发表了一项研究,题为《探寻金融市场波动的起源:非弹性市场假说》。你可能没听说过这个东西,因为它不是那种适合在长途航班上消遣的读物。不过,其中包含的一些惊人揭示,与当前市场息息相关。
In 2021 the National Bureau of Economic Research (‘NBER’) in Cambridge, Massachusetts published research entitled ‘In search of the origins of financial market fluctuations: the inelastic markets hypothesis’. You may not have heard of this as it is not the sort of thing to take for a read on a long flight. However, it has some startling revelations which are relevant to the current market.
先从一条看似毫无争议的论断说起:1 美元(或 100 万美元、10 亿美元)在股票或债券之间切换(或任何其他转换),并不会影响任何一方的内在价值。如果你从像 Fundsmith 股票基金这样的主动型基金中赎回资金,投入指数基金,这并不会改变我们为满足赎回而不得不卖出的股票的估值,也不会改变指数基金所买入股票的估值。然而,美国国家经济研究局(NBER)的论文显示,现实中这种切换会产生乘数效应,倍数从 3:1 到 8:1 不等,平均约为 5.5:1。此类切换带来的资金流入,会将所购股票的价值平均推高至投入金额的五倍。说这与基本面投资理论背道而驰,简直是最轻描淡写的说法。
It starts with the seemingly uncontroversial assertion that $1 (or $1m or $1bn) switched between either stocks or bonds (or any other switch) does not affect the intrinsic value of either. If you redeem funds from an active fund like Fundsmith Equity Fund to place them in an index fund it does not alter the valuation of the stocks we have to sell to fund the redemption or the stocks that the index fund buys. However, the NBER paper shows that in reality such a switch has a multiplier effect of anything from 3:1 to 8:1, an average of about 5.5:1. The inflow from such switches pushes up the value of the stocks purchased by an average of five times the amount invested. To say this flies in the face of fundamental investment theory would be a masterly understatement.
NBER 的论文将这一现象归因于股票需求和供给的缺乏弹性。超过 50% 的股票由指数基金持有,这些基金在买入什么方面毫无自主权。此外,剩下的所谓主动型基金中,有一部分的管理方式使其不太可能逆指数走势而下注。除了委托合同的限制外,基金经理们早就明白所谓的“隐性指数化”对保全职业生涯的作用——他们不会偏离指数权重太远。鉴于我们近年来的经历,谁能责怪他们呢?
The NBER paper attributes this to the inelasticity of demand and supply for equities. Over 50% of equities are in index funds which have no discretion over what they buy. Moreover, some portion of the so-called active funds which are left are managed in a way that makes them unlikely to bet against what is happening in the index. Apart from any mandate restrictions, fund managers have long realised the career preserving nature of so-called closet indexation in which they do not stray far from the index weightings. Given our experience in recent years, who can blame them?
5
从某种意义上说,NBER 的研究可被视为对指数基金崛起影响的显而易见之陈述,但远非显而易见的是该影响的规模。况且,某件事一旦被解释后看似浅显,并不意味着它就该被忽视。
5 The NBER research could in one sense be regarded as a statement of the blindingly obvious impact of the rise of index funds, but what is far from obvious is the scale of that impact. Nor does the fact that something may seem obvious, once it is explained, mean that it should then be ignored.
按 327 倍市盈率(这是它当前的估值)买入特斯拉股票,也许在根本上讲不通,但它按市值是标普 500 指数里第九大公司,所以当资金涌入指数基金时,不持有它就成了一个危险的选择。
It may make no fundamental sense to buy Tesla shares on a Price Earnings Ratio (‘PE’) of 327 (which is its current rating) but it is the ninth largest company in the S&P 500 Index by value so not holding it is a perilous position to take when money is flowing into index funds.
约翰·博格尔说得对。指数基金持有的股票比例不断上升,而这些资金在买入时完全不考虑所购股票的质量或估值,这造成了危险的扭曲。
John Bogle was right. The increasing proportion of equities held by index funds are invested without any regard to the quality or valuation of the shares bought which produces dangerous distortions.
与普遍认知相反,股市并非网络赌场的替代品,而是一个为公司估值、筹集资金并提供流动性的机制。当这一机制被扭曲时,结果往往导致资本配置的重大失误。
Contrary to popular belief, the stock market is not a substitute for online casinos but rather a mechanism for valuing companies, raising capital and providing liquidity. When this becomes distorted the result is often a major misallocation of capital.
约翰·坦普尔顿爵士创立了以自己名字命名的投资管理集团,他曾说过:“投资中最危险的四个字是:这次不一样。”他是在提醒人们,总有人愿意为投资狂热的爆发找理由开脱,但当泡沫破裂、投资基本面重新发挥作用时,这些理由总是被证明是错误的。
Sir John Templeton, who founded the eponymous investment management group, once said, ‘The four most dangerous words in investing are: This time it’s different’. He was pointing out that there are always people who are willing to rationalise outbursts of investment mania but they are always proven wrong when the bubble bursts and investment fundamentals reassert themselves.
我们以前见过这种情况,不仅在互联网泡沫的兴起与破灭中,在其他例子中也是如此,比如 1980 年代末的日本市场。当时有人告诉我们,日经指数 50 多倍的市盈率没问题,因为日本的会计制度保守。实际上,市场只是被高估了。日经指数随后下跌,直到 2024 年才重新站上 1989 年达到的峰值。
We have seen this before, not only in the Dotcom boom and bust, but in other examples such as the Japanese market in the late 1980s. Then we were told that the PE of over 50 on the Nikkei Index was okay because Japanese accounting was conservative. In fact the market was just over-valued. After the subsequent fall in the Nikkei it took until 2024 for the index to regain the peak it attained in 1989.
当股价和估值飙升,让公司和投资者误以为资本近乎零成本时,灾难性的投资决策便随之而来。他们似乎把公司所投资本的成本,当成了市盈率的倒数。于是,市盈率 50 倍就被换算成 2% 的资本成本(100÷50)。这纯属无稽之谈。
When companies and/or investors are encouraged by soaring share prices and valuations to believe that capital is almost free, some disastrous investment decisions follow. They seem to act as though the cost of the capital that companies are investing is to some degree the reciprocal of their PE ratio. So, a PE of 50 equates to a cost of capital of 2% (100÷50). This is utter nonsense.
股权资本成本并不随估值高低而反向变动,或许用所谓无风险资本的成本来估算最为恰当,即长期政府债券的收益率加上所谓的股权风险溢价。在尝试估算股权资本成本时,以长期回报率作为起点并不算坏。
The cost of equity does not vary inversely with the valuation and is perhaps best estimated by the cost of so-called risk-free capital, being the yield on long-dated government bonds plus what is called an equity risk premium. It is not a bad starting point when trying to estimate a cost of equity capital to look at the long-term return on
6
就股票而言,这实际上等同于一种机会成本:投资者长期内应从股权投资中期待何种回报?这正是他们通过持有股份提供股权资本时应要求的成本——股权资本成本。过去一个世纪,美国股票年均回报率约为 9%。当然不是 2%。
6 equities as it is in effect an opportunity cost: what return should an investor expect from equity investment over the long term? That is what they should demand as a cost of supplying equity by owning shares — the cost of equity capital. US equities have averaged a return of about 9% p.a. over the past century. It certainly isn’t 2%.
如果公司或投资者开始基于股价飙升的估值做出大幅偏离这一假设的决策,结果将是灾难性的。2000 年,总部位于英国的移动运营商沃达丰,作为互联网泡沫时期的领军企业之一,竞购了德国移动运营商曼内斯曼。当时,沃达丰的市盈率为 54 倍,曼内斯曼的市盈率为 56 倍。这又指向了另一个谬误——管理层往往以发行估值过高或高价值的股票作为支付方式,来为他们在繁荣和泡沫期间收购资产的行为辩护。稍等片刻,这对投资者意味着什么?我们可以看到结果:沃达丰的股价在 2000 年竞购曼内斯曼时达到峰值 570 便士,而如今交易价格仅为 99 便士。当糟糕的资本投资决策摧毁价值时,总会有清算的一天。
If companies or investors start making decisions which deviate much from that assumption based upon soaring share valuations the outcome will be disastrous. In 2000 Vodafone, the UK based mobile phone operator which was one of the leaders in the Dotcom boom, bid for Mannesmann, the German mobile operator. At the time Vodafone was on a PE of 54 and Mannesmann was on a PE of 56. That points to another fallacy — managements often justify what they are paying for assets in booms and bubbles by the fact that they are paying by issuing over-valued or highly-valued shares. Hang on a minute, what does that imply for investors? We can see the results insofar as Vodafone’s shares peaked at a value of 570p in 2000 when it bid for Mannesmann and they are now trading at 99p. When value is destroyed by bad capital investment decisions there is always a reckoning.
或许,部分领先人工智能公司的管理层对未来的图景看得真切,能预见到 AI 不仅会深刻改变我们的生活和工作方式,还会带来增量现金流,使他们投入的巨额资本获得足够甚至超过足够的回报。但倘若并非如此,我们可以预期,约翰·邓普顿爵士的箴言将再度应验,只不过这一次,在指数投资动能的推动下,非理性繁荣的持续时间和规模或许会超过我们以往所见。
Perhaps the executives running some of the leading AI companies have a clear view of the future and can foresee that AI will produce not just a transformation in our lives and the way we work but also incremental cash flows such that the returns on the humongous amounts of capital they are investing will be adequate or better than adequate. But if not, we can expect Sir John Templeton’s adage to be proven to be right once again, albeit maybe after a longer period and larger scale of irrational exuberance than we have seen in the past, driven by the momentum of index investing.
然而,即便我们准确判断出,向指数基金的转变是近期表现不佳的原因之一,并且这正在为一场重大投资灾难埋下伏笔,我也无法预知这场灾难会以何种方式、在何时终结,只能断言结局不会美好。
However, even if we are right in diagnosing this move to index funds as one of the causes of our recent underperformance and it is laying the foundations of a major investment disaster, I have no clue how or when it will end except to say badly.
谨向已故的约翰·邓普顿爵士致以诚挚敬意,尽管早前我曾引用他的话,但我想这次或许会有所不同。并非指“七圣徒”/人工智能热潮本身有何不同,而是指其可能达到的规模与持续的时长。当互联网泡沫时期,指数基金所管理的资产占比尚不足 10%。如今指数基金的主导地位,使得这些大型股票的上涨成为一种自我实现的预言。
With sincere respect to the late Sir John Templeton whom I quoted earlier, I think this time it may be different. Not in the sense that the Magnificent Seven/AI boom is different but rather in the scale it may attain and how long it may persist. When we had the Dotcom boom the proportion of AUM which was in index funds was under 10%. The dominance of index funds now makes the rise of these large stocks a self-fulfilling prophecy.
7
3. Dollar weakness
7 3. Dollar weakness
再添一层逆风:美元兑英镑汇率从年初约 1.25 美元/英镑跌至年末的 1.35 美元/英镑。
Just to add to the headwinds, the US dollar fell against the pound from about $1.25/GBP at the start of the year to $1.35 at year end:
美元兑英镑汇率
USD vs GBP Exchange Rate
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
我怀疑这反映的并非英国经济的相对强势,也不是对政府政策的认可。特朗普政府显然急于看到利率走低,并缩减贸易逆差。这两个目标都与强势美元格格不入。
I doubt this reflects relative strength of the UK economy or satisfaction with government policy. The Trump administration is obviously keen to see interest rates lower and to reduce the trade deficit. Neither of these aims is compatible with a strong dollar.
美元疲软在黄金价格上也能看到,金价已涨至每盎司 4319 美元,创下 50 年新高。市场对金价走强的原因众说纷纭,但某种程度上,我认为这反映了黄金计价货币本身的疲弱。
Dollar weakness can also be seen in the price of gold which is at a 50 year high of $4,319 per ounce. There is lots of speculation about the reasons for the strength of the gold price but to some extent I view it as an expression of weakness in the currency in which gold is priced.
这会影响到我们基金的英镑价值,因为大部分公司在美国上市,更重要的是,美国是它们最大的单一收入来源。
This affects the GBP value of our Fund since the majority of the companies are listed in the United States and more importantly that is their biggest single source of revenue.
我希望这一切能在某种程度上解释,近年来我们在来自指数基金的竞争、大型科技公司的表现,以及美元疲软这一额外不利因素之下,所一直面对的局面。
I hope that all of this may go some way towards explaining what we have been facing in terms of competition from index funds and the performance of large tech companies in particular in recent years with the added handicap of dollar weakness.
这些事件让我确信,汤米·多赫蒂是个乐观主义者。在他被解雇为曼彻斯特联队主教练的那一周里,
These events have convinced me that Tommy Docherty was an optimist. In the week when he was fired as manager of Manchester
8
联合航空的这位先生和妻子申请离婚时说:“生活中,一扇门关上,另一扇门就会砰地一声砸在你脸上。”我想我能体会他的感受。
8 United and his wife filed for divorce he said, ‘In life when one door closes, another slams in your face’. I think I know how he felt.
也许更切题的问题是:我们打算怎么应对?
Perhaps a more pertinent question is what are we going to do about it?
We could:
We could:
1. 开始买入所有在指数中占据主导地位的大公司的股票,和/或
1. Start buying stocks in all the large companies which dominate the indices, and/or
2. 成为追逐动量的投资者,买入表现强劲的股票,而不论其基本面优劣。
2. Become momentum investors who buy shares which are performing strongly irrespective of their fundamental merits.
我们两者都不会做。如果你想买指数基金,完全可以买到费用远低于我们或任何其他主动管理型投资经理的基金。我们也不是动量投资者,在这方面有比我们更擅长的策略执行者。如果你正在考虑采用这种策略,我只想提醒一点。据我经验,优秀的动量投资者会买入上涨的股票,并在它们开始下跌时卖出。他们不会因为自己在英伟达股票上涨时买入,就自认为对人工智能或 GPU 的未来走势了如指掌。
We are not going to do either. If you want an index fund you can buy one with much lower costs than we or any other active investment manager apply. Nor are we momentum investors and there are better exponents of this investment strategy than us. I would just offer one note of caution if you are thinking of taking this approach. Good momentum investors in my experience buy shares which are going up and sell them when they start going down. They do not convince themselves, for example, that because they have bought Nvidia shares when they are going up, they know what is going to happen with AI or GPUs.
我们不会仅仅因为公司规模大、在指数权重和表现中占主导地位就买入其股票,除非我们确信它们是值得拥有的那类好企业:具备长期相对可预测的增长来源,以及远超充足的投资资本回报。
We won’t be buying shares in companies simply because they are large and dominate the index weightings and performance unless we become convinced that they are good businesses of the sort we wish to own which have long term relatively predictable sources of growth and more than adequate returns on the capital they invest.
我们固然会坚持既定的投资策略,但当然也会力求做得更好。已故的查理·芒格有许多名言令我们深为认同,但最贴合此处情境的一句是:“如果哪一年你没有抛弃自己最钟爱的某个想法,那这一年多半就白过了。”后续还会有更多内容。
Whilst we are going to stick to our investment strategy we will of course seek to do it better. We are fans of many of the late Charlie Munger’s pronouncements but the one which best applies here is ‘Any year that you don't destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year.’ More to follow.
看 2025 年个股对业绩的贡献时,我照例喜欢先谈问题。2025 年基金业绩的五大拖累项分别是:
Looking at individual stock contribution to performance in 2025 as usual I prefer to start with the problems. The bottom five detractors from the Fund’s performance in 2025 were:
股票 贡献值
诺和诺德 -3.0
自动数据处理公司 -0.9
教堂与德怀特公司 -0.7
科洛普拉斯特公司 -0.7
飞塔公司 -0.7
来源:道富银行
Stock Attribution Novo Nordisk -3.0 Automatic Data Processing -0.9 Church & Dwight -0.7 Coloplast -0.7 Fortinet -0.7 Source: State Street
9
诺和诺德让我再次确信,永远别说“情况不可能更糟了”。这家公司在可能是近三十年最激动人心的药物研发领域,把市场领先地位拱手让成了二流位置,而且没能阻止其美国核心市场上非法仿制药的竞争。
9 Novo Nordisk managed to reaffirm my belief that you should never say ‘Things can’t get any worse’. The company has parlayed a market leading position in what is probably the most exciting drug development for about three decades into a secondary position and has failed to prevent illegal generic competition in its core US market.
我们的信条之一一直是:应该始终投资于那些即使由傻瓜来经营也能正常运转的企业,这样业绩就不会严重依赖管理层。但我们痛苦地意识到,能让傻瓜经营的企业范围远比我们想象的要狭窄,今后我们会更加留意糟糕的管理层可能带来的影响。我们的经验还表明,遇到糟糕的管理层时,与其试图推动变革,不如直接卖掉股票更有效。与此同时,诺和诺德已任命新的首席执行官,并全面改组董事会,目前其估值(市盈率 13 倍)在我们看来几乎没体现什么预期。如果我们尚未持有这只股票,我猜我们会考虑买入它——这是一家被“小故障”压制的优质企业,尽管这个故障实在不小。
One of our mantras has been that we should always invest in businesses which could be run by an idiot so that performance is not heavily reliant upon management. We have been made painfully aware that the range of businesses which can be run by an idiot is much more limited than we thought and hereafter we will aim to be more aware of the impact that poor management can have. Our experience also suggests that when we encounter poor management, engagement to change it is less effective than selling the shares. Meanwhile Novo Nordisk has appointed a new CEO and made wholesale board changes and the present rating (a PE of 13) appears to us to be expecting very little. If we did not already own it I suspect we would contemplate buying it as a good business which has been depressed by a ‘glitch’, albeit a rather large glitch.
ADP 作为薪资和人力资源软件供应商,受到了美国就业市场疲软的影响。鉴于这一核心市场的前景,我们带着几分忐忑希望,管理层对未来收入给出的指引是保守的。并非因为我们依赖它,而是市场依赖。
ADP as a provider of payroll and HR software has suffered from weakness in the US jobs market. In view of the outlook for this core market we hope — with some nervousness — that the guidance management has given on future revenues is conservative. Not because we rely on it, but the market does.
Church & Dwight,这家消费品公司,似乎正受困于一个事实:美国经济中不同消费者群体的境遇分化,非但没有促使人们转向其折扣产品,反而让那些天然青睐这些产品的消费者变得更加拮据。
Church & Dwight, the consumer staples business, seems to be suffering from the fact that the mixed fortunes of different groups of consumers in the US economy, far from driving consumers towards its discount products, is instead impoverishing those consumers who naturally gravitate towards them.
康乐保是另一家丹麦医疗公司——不过这次是医疗器械,而非药品。在完成几笔重大收购之后,公司在运营管理上失去了掌控,导致最终业绩表现不佳。同样,首席执行官被解职,我们正等待继任者。
Coloplast is another Danish medical company — this time in devices rather than drugs. A couple of significant acquisitions have been followed by a loss of control on operational matters which has resulted in a poor bottom line performance. Once again, the CEO has been ejected and we await a replacement.
也许丹麦的水里真有什么特别的东西。
Perhaps there is something in the water in Denmark.
我们在 Fortinet 股价因新冠疫情相关营收增长高点回落而下跌后买入,当时其 FortiGate 防火墙系统正被广泛部署,支撑居家办公需求。近期,该公司因可能夸大了续约周期带来的潜在营收而令市场失望,股价再度承压。
We bought Fortinet after its shares had suffered from a fall as it came down from the Covid related highs of revenue growth when its FortiGate firewall systems were deployed so that we could work from home. More recently it has suffered from some disappointment that it may have over-hyped the potential revenue from a renewal cycle.
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分析师依赖“指引”形式投喂的预测,而正如 美国国家经济研究局(NBER)论文所指出的那样,市场流动性有限。在这样的时代,业绩不及乐观指引时,股价可能出现极其惨烈的下跌。
10 In an age in which analysts rely on spoon fed forecasts in the form of ‘guidance’ and there is limited liquidity as the NBER paper suggests, results which fall short of optimistic guidance can produce spectacularly bad share price movements.
这一年,为基金业绩贡献最大的五个方向是:
For the year, the top five contributors to the Fund’s performance were:
股票 贡献度
Alphabet +2.6
IDEXX +2.3
菲利普·莫里斯 +1.5
Meta 平台 +1.1
微软 +1.0
来源:道富集团
Stock Attribution Alphabet +2.6 IDEXX +2.3 Philip Morris +1.5 Meta Platforms +1.1 Microsoft +1.0 Source: State Street
Alphabet 首次亮相。
Alphabet makes its first appearance.
IDEXX 是兽医诊断设备业务,今年已是第六次上榜。去年它还因新冠疫情带来的宠物领养热潮消退而拖累业绩,今年则重新回到了榜单之中。
IDEXX, the veterinary diagnostic equipment business, makes its sixth appearance having resurrected its position from being a detractor last year when it was suffering from the ebbing of the Covid era mania for pet adoption.
菲利普·莫里斯第五次上榜,继续展示其行业领先地进军减害产品(RRPs)所带来的益处,这类产品包括“加热不燃烧”烟草制品和尼古丁袋业务。
Philip Morris makes its fifth appearance as it continues to show the benefits of its industry leading move into reduced-risk products (‘RRPs’) such as ‘heat-not-burn’ tobacco products and its nicotine pouch business.
Meta 第五次出现在这份主要贡献者榜单中,而微软则是第十次上榜。
Meta makes its fifth appearance in this list of top contributors while Microsoft appears for the tenth time.
我们继续采用一个简单的三步投资策略:
We continue to apply a simple three step investment strategy:
• 买入好公司
• 别付高价
• 然后什么也不做
• Buy good companies • Don’t overpay • Do nothing
接下来,我逐一看看我们在每个方面的进展。
I will review how we are doing against each of those in turn.
像往常一样,我们试图通过下表,让大家对我们所拥有的第一项也是最重要的一项——我们是否持有好公司——有所洞察。该表展示了如果基金本身是一家公司,而非基金,并以“透视力”基础核算其持仓股份,富达基金股票基金会呈现何种面貌,同时将其与市场,此处指富时 100 指数和标普 500 指数,进行比较。此表也向您展示了投资组合随时间的演变情况。
As usual we seek to give some insight into the first and most important of these — whether we own good companies — by giving you the following table which shows what Fundsmith Equity Fund would be like if instead of being a fund it was a company and accounted for the stakes which it owns in the portfolio on a ‘look- through’ basis, and compares this with the market, in this case the FTSE 100 and the S&P 500. This also shows you how the portfolio has evolved over time.
11
11 S&P FTSE Fundsmith Equity Fund Portfolio 500 100 Year ended 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 2025
ROCE 29% 29% 25% 28% 32% 32% 32% 31% 17% 17%
毛利率 65% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 64% 62% 45% 43%
营业利润率 28% 27% 23% 26% 28% 29% 30% 28% 18% 17%
现金转化率 95% 97% 101% 95% 88% 91% 85% 94% 89% 99%
利息保障倍数 17 倍 16 倍 16 倍 23 倍 20 倍 20 倍 27 倍 29 倍 9 倍 8 倍
资料来源:Fundsmith LLP/彭博。
ROCE(资本回报率)、毛利率、营业利润率和现金转化率为 Fundsmith 股票基金所投底层公司的加权平均值,以及富时 100 指数和标普 500 指数的平均值。富时 100 指数和标普 500 指数的数据剔除金融股。利息保障倍数为中位数。
2018–2019 年的比率基于截至 12 月 31 日最近报告的财年数据,2020–25 年则为彭博定义的过去十二个月滚动数据。
现金转化率比较每股自由现金流与每股净利润。
ROCE 29% 29% 25% 28% 32% 32% 32% 31% 17% 17% Gross Margin 65% 66% 65% 64% 64% 63% 64% 62% 45% 43% Operating Margin 28% 27% 23% 26% 28% 29% 30% 28% 18% 17% Cash Conversion 95% 97% 101% 95% 88% 91% 85% 94% 89% 99% Interest Cover 17x 16x 16x 23x 20x 20x 27x 29x 9x 8x Source: Fundsmith LLP/Bloomberg. ROCE (Return on Capital Employed), Gross Margin, Operating Margin and Cash Conversion are the weighted mean of the underlying companies invested in by the Fundsmith Equity Fund and mean for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Indices. The FTSE 100 and S&P 500 numbers exclude financial stocks. Interest Cover is median. 2018–2019 ratios are based on last reported fiscal year accounts as of 31st December and for 2020–25 are Trailing Twelve Months and as defined by Bloomberg. Cash Conversion compares Free Cash Flow per Share with Net Income per Share.
2025 年,资本回报率、毛利率和营业利润率均保持高位且稳定。
In 2025 return on capital, gross margins and operating profit margins were all high and steady.
持续高资本回报率是我们寻找投资标的时看重的特征之一。另一个则是增长来源——如果企业无法以这些高回报率持续增长并投入更多资本,那么高回报的意义就大打折扣。那么,我们旗下公司在 2025 年在这方面表现如何?加权平均自由现金流(即公司在支付除股息外所有费用后产生的现金,也是我们偏好的衡量指标)增长了 16%。
Consistently high returns on capital are one sign we look for when seeking companies to invest in. Another is a source of growth — high returns are not much use if the business is not able to grow and deploy more capital at these high rates. So how did our companies fare in that respect in 2025? The weighted average free cash flow (the cash the companies generate after paying for everything except the dividend, and our preferred measure) grew by 16%.
从基本面角度来看,这正是我们力求关注的重点,我们确信投资组合中的公司将在商业和市场周期中持续表现优异。我们的投资组合公司质量达到历史最高水平,总体而言,它们的自由现金流增长速度继续快于组合的历史平均水平。基础业务表现始终是我们的首要关注点。只要这一点做对了,我们的基金就会以投资内在价值保持不变或得到提升的面貌走出周期,因为股价迟早会反映基本面,而非相反。
From a fundamental perspective, which is what we seek to focus on, we are confident that our portfolio companies will continue to perform well over the business and market cycles. The quality of our portfolio companies is as high as it has ever been and collectively they continue to grow free cash flow quicker than the historical average of the portfolio. The underlying business performance remains our primary focus. If we get that right then our Fund will emerge with the intrinsic value of its investments maintained or enhanced, as sooner or later, share prices reflect fundamentals, not the other way around.
令人鼓舞的是,我们投资组合中公司的平均创立年份为 1919 年。它们加在一起,已有一个多世纪的历史。
Encouragingly, the average year of foundation of our portfolio companies at the year-end was 1919. Collectively they are over a century old.
唯一拖累历史表现水平的指标是现金转化率——即利润以现金形式实现的程度。虽然这一指标在 2025 年小幅回升至 94%,但仍低于约 100% 的历史水平。原因是一家小范围公司群体的资本开支激增:Alphabet、微软和 Meta。这些科技公司正竞相建设人工智能所需的产能,
The only metric which continues to lag its historical performance is cash conversion — the degree to which profits are delivered in cash. Although this recovered slightly to 94% in 2025, this is still below its historical level of around 100%. This was due to a sharp rise in capital expenditure at a small group of companies: Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta. The tech companies are in a race to build capacity for AI in the
12——GPU 芯片和数据中心的形式。这场军备竞赛能否在巨额投入之后产生足够的利润和回报,仍然悬而未决。
12 form of GPU chips and data centres. Whether this arms race produces adequate profits and returns for the amounts expended remains an open question.
正如我们所见,我们的科技公司正与亚马逊一道加大资本支出:
As we can see, our tech companies are ramping up capital expenditure along with Amazon:
科技巨头们的资本支出
Capex For Major Tech Companies
这张表格还没有涵盖一些资本开支承诺庞大的公司,比如甲骨文已宣布将在 2025/6 财年投入约 500 亿美元,而 CoreWeave 预计 2026 年的资本开支将在 250 亿美元上下。
And this table does not include some companies which have major capex commitments like Oracle which has announced it will spend some $50 billion in 2025/6 or CoreWeave which is predicting around $25 billion of capex in 2026.
评论员在讨论人工智能的未来以及 AI 投资是否存在泡沫时,常常似乎没抓住要点。AI 或许会对我们的生活和工作带来深远影响,但这并不保证投资于它就能获得合理回报,也不保证回报会流向当前的既有企业。
When commentators discuss the future of artificial intelligence and whether there is a bubble in AI investments they often seem to miss the point. AI may have a profound effect on our lives and employment but that does not guarantee that investment in it will attain an adequate return or that returns will gravitate to the present incumbents.
有一家公司在这方面引起了我们的兴趣,那就是苹果。站在不同立场看,它要么是在大语言模型(LLM)的争夺战和人工智能基础设施的超大规模建设中掉队了,要么是主动退出了这场竞赛。结果就是,它 2025 年的资本支出仅为 120 亿美元,与上表中的那些公司相比,简直微不足道。
One company which intrigues us in this respect is Apple. Depending upon your point of view it has either been left behind in the scramble to build Large Language Models (‘LLMs’) and hyperscale to provide AI infrastructure or it has opted out of the race. As a result, its capital expenditure in 2025 was a mere $12 billion which pales into insignificance in comparison with the companies in the table above.
这也许是出于无奈,但首席执行官蒂姆·库克或许在践行一句老话:卖牛奶不必自己养奶牛。苹果拥有设备,约十亿消费者,其中大多数属于高端用户,被锁定在这些设备中,而且越来越依赖其服务。超大规模服务商似乎不太可能缺少大语言模型(LLM)提供给苹果,供 iPhone 用户使用。如果这确实是商业模式的话
It may be making a virtue of necessity but maybe Tim Cook the CEO is working on an old adage, ‘You don’t have to own a cow to sell milk’. Apple has its devices and about a billion mostly high-end consumers locked into them and increasingly into its services. It seems unlikely that there will be a shortage of LLMs that the hyperscalers will want to offer Apple for iPhone users. If this is indeed the business model
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苹果公司所依赖的这一局面,对于大语言模型开发商及/或超大规模云服务商的盈利能力而言,恐怕并非吉兆。
13 Apple is relying on it may not bode well for the LLM developers and/or hyperscalers’ profitability.
我们策略的第二个支柱是估值。2025 年初,投资组合的加权平均自由现金流收益率(即自由现金流占市值比例)为 3.1%,年末升至 3.7%。年末标普 500 的自由现金流收益率为 2.8%,MSCI 全球指数为 3.1%。如今,随着指数中许多大权重股在人工智能领域的大规模资本支出面前,自由现金流有所缩水甚至消失,我们的持股与标普指数相比,估值已变得低得多。
The second leg of our strategy is about valuation. The weighted average free cash flow (‘FCF’) yield (the free cash flow generated as a percentage of the market value) of the portfolio at the outset of 2025 was 3.1% and ended the year at 3.7%. The year-end FCF yield of the S&P 500 was 2.8% and MSCI World was 3.1%. Our portfolio stocks have become a lot more lowly valued than the S&P as the free cash flow of many of the major stocks which now dominate the index has shrunk or disappeared in the face of massive capex spending on AI.
我们的投资组合由基本面远超标普 500 指数成分股平均水平的公司组成,过去我们也解释过,这些公司估值高于标普 500 指数成分股平均水平并不奇怪。这本身不一定让股票显得昂贵,正如低评级不一定让股票便宜,但如今它们比标普 500 指数显著更便宜。然而,这也引发了一个明显的担忧,即市场将会发生什么变化。
Our portfolio consists of companies that are fundamentally a lot better than the average of those in the S&P 500, and in the past we have explained that it is no surprise if they are valued more highly than the average S&P 500 company. In itself this does not necessarily make the stocks expensive, any more than a lowly rating makes a stock cheap but they are now significantly cheaper than the S&P. But it also raises an obvious concern about what will happen to the market.
接下来谈谈我们策略的第三条,简单概括就是“按兵不动”。把投资组合换手率压到最低,始终是我们的目标之一,而这一目标在本期再次达成——投资组合换手率为 12.7%。也许更直观的数字是:过去一年,我们主动买卖股票(不包括因申购和赎回产生的被动交易成本)所花的费用,仅占基金平均资产规模的 0.008%(不到一个基点)。本期我们卖出了两家公司,买入了四家,另外还拿到了一笔联合利华分拆出来的 Magnum Ice Cream 股份。跟去年一样,换手率不高,但涉及的公司名字看着不少,这是因为有些买卖的仓位本身很小。自 2010 年基金成立以来,我们一直持有组合中 29 家公司里的 3 家;持有超过 10 年的有 10 家;持有超过 5 年的有 16 家。
Turning to the third leg of our strategy, which we succinctly describe as ‘Do nothing’, minimising portfolio turnover remains one of our objectives and this was again achieved with a portfolio turnover of 12.7% during the period. It is perhaps more helpful to know that we spent a total of just 0.008% (just under one basis point) of the Fund’s average value over the year on voluntary dealing (which excludes dealing costs associated with subscriptions and redemptions as these are involuntary). We sold two companies, purchased four and received a holding in Magnum Ice Cream which was spun out from Unilever. As last year this may seem like a lot of names for what is not a lot of turnover as in some cases the size of the holding sold or bought was small. We have held three of the portfolio’s 29 companies since inception in 2010, 10 for more than 10 years and 16 for over five years.
这为什么重要?因为它有助于将成本降至最低,而将投资成本最小化,对于投资者取得满意成果是至关重要的贡献。投资者、评论员和顾问们常常把注意力集中在,有时甚至是痴迷于,年度管理费(AMC)或持续性收费率(OCF)上,后者包含了除 AMC 之外基金收取的某些额外成本。2025 年 T 类累积份额的 OCF 为 1.04%。问题在于,OCF 并未包含一个重要成本要素——交易成本。当基金经理通过买入或卖出进行交易时,基金通常
Why is this important? It helps to minimise costs and minimising the costs of investment is a vital contribution to achieving a satisfactory outcome as an investor. Too often investors, commentators and advisers focus on, or in some cases obsess about, the Annual Management Charge (‘AMC’) or the Ongoing Charges Figure (‘OCF’), which includes some costs over and above the AMC, which are charged to the Fund. The OCF for 2025 for the T Class Accumulation shares was 1.04%. The trouble is that the OCF does not include an important element of costs — the costs of dealing. When a fund manager deals by buying or selling, the fund typically
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基金还须承担付给经纪人的佣金、买卖股票的价差成本,某些情况下还包括交易税,比如英国的印花税。这些费用会显著增加基金的成本,却不计入 OCF。
14 incurs the cost of commission paid to a broker, the bid-offer spread on the stocks dealt in and, in some cases, transaction taxes such as stamp duty in the UK. This can add significantly to the costs of a fund, yet it is not included in the OCF.
我们提供自己口径的总成本数据,包含交易成本,称之为投资总成本(TCI)。2025 年,T 类累积份额的 TCI 为 1.06%,涵盖基金进出流量的全部交易成本,不只是我们主动交易的部分。我们很高兴,计入交易成本后,TCI 仅比持续费率(OCF)高出 0.02%(2 个基点)。但我们再次提醒,别把注意力全放在费用上,以致忽视了基金的业绩表现。值得指出的是,本信开头列出的基金业绩,是在扣除所有费用之后的数字,那才是应该关注的重点。
We provide our own version of this total cost including dealing costs, which we have termed the Total Cost of Investment (‘TCI’). For the T Class Accumulation shares in 2025 the TCI was 1.06%, including all costs of dealing for flows into and out of the Fund, not just our voluntary dealing. We are pleased that our TCI is just 0.02% (2 basis points) above our OCF when transaction costs are taken into account. However, we would again caution against becoming obsessed with charges to such an extent that you lose focus on the performance of funds. It is worth pointing out that the performance of our Fund tabled at the beginning of this letter is after charging all fees which should surely be the main focus.
我们售出了布朗-福尔曼和百事可乐的股份,并在年内开始买入硕腾、依视路陆逊梯卡、财捷和威科集团的股份。
We sold our stakes in Brown-Forman and PepsiCo and started purchasing stakes in Zoetis, EssilorLuxottica, Intuit and Wolters Kluwer during the year.
在我们看来,布朗-福曼公司和百事公司的零食业务正直接处于减肥药导致食欲下降影响的靶心位置。无论我们对诺和诺德的投资最终能否成功,我们都相信减肥药及其影响将持续存在。此外,酒类饮品行业还面临着 Z 世代饮酒习惯(缺乏)以及大麻合法化带来的逆风。
Brown-Forman and PepsiCo’s snack business seem to us to be directly in the crosshairs of the impact of reduced appetites from weight loss drugs. Whether or not our Novo Nordisk investment finally comes good, we believe that weight loss drugs and their impact are here to stay. In addition, the alcoholic drinks business faces headwinds from the impact of Generation Z’s drinking habits (lack of) and the legalisation of cannabis.
硕腾是领先的兽药公司。除了受益于宠物医疗支出的长期增长,它还有一个优势:兽药领域不存在数十亿美元销售额的重磅炸弹药物,因此仿制药竞争较少。硕腾股价曾一度表现不佳,原因是市场对其治疗骨关节炎慢性疼痛的药物 Librela(我的猎犬也在用)的副作用存在担忧。我们的兽医顾问告诉我,她仍然会开具这种药,因为疗效超过潜在副作用。
Zoetis is the leading veterinary pharmaceutical company. Apart from tapping into the long term growth in pet healthcare spend, it has the advantage that multi-billion dollar sales blockbuster drugs do not exist in veterinary care and so they attract less generic competition. Zoetis’s share price had a poor period caused by concerns over side effects associated with Librela, its drug for chronic pain from osteoarthritis (my lurcher has it). Our veterinary consultant tells me she still prescribes it as the benefits outweigh the potential side effects.
依视路陆逊梯卡由法国和意大利两家公司合并而成,这两家公司在眼镜市场占据主导地位,镜架和镜片都是如此。这项业务有一阵顺风,来自那些尚未获得视力矫正服务的人群。此外,它还有不少有趣的创新,比如星趣控(Stellest)镜片,有助于防止近视儿童的视力恶化,当然还有 Meta AI 智能眼镜。
EssilorLuxottica arose from the merger of French and Italian companies which dominate the market for eyeglasses, both frames and lenses. There is a tailwind for this business from people who do not yet have access to vision correction. In addition, it has some interesting innovations such as the Stellest lenses which help prevent deterioration for children with myopia and of course the Meta AI glasses.
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此前,我们卖出所持财捷集团(Intuit)的股份。这家公司做会计和税务软件,2021 年它收购了 Mailchimp,我们觉得 Mailchimp 不在它的能力圈里,而且它付了大约三倍于合理价格的收购价。它试图辩解,说一半对价是用自家股票支付的。这背后隐含的估值逻辑,在我们看来一目了然。卖出后有一阵子,AI 炒作推高了股价,但最近 Mailchimp 这笔收购表现不佳,已经显而易见,股价也反映出来了。我们开始重新建仓,寄望管理层能从这场挫败中吸取教训。
15 We previously sold a position we held in Intuit, the accounting and tax software company, after it acquired Mailchimp in 2021 because we felt that Mailchimp fell outside its circle of competence and they paid about three times the right price, something which they attempted to justify by pointing out that half the consideration paid was in Intuit shares. What this implied about their valuation seemed obvious to us. For a while after we sold the shares AI hype drove the price but latterly the poor performance of the Mailchimp acquisition has become evident and reflected in the share price. We have started to rebuild a stake in the hope that the management has learned from the debacle.
威科集团是专业领域技术出版领域的龙头,服务对象涵盖医疗、税务、会计、风险与合规以及法律行业的专业人士。这家公司似乎已被市场视为人工智能颠覆的受害者,但这种看法,与当初认为 Adobe 和 Intuit 是人工智能受益者、如今却已站不住脚的观点,几乎同样不靠谱。正是这种看法将其市盈率压至 19 倍以下,而该公司仍在以每年约 5% 的速度增长,投入资本回报率为 18%,净资产收益率约 50%。
Wolters Kluwer is the leader in technical publishing used by professionals in health, tax, accounting, risk & compliance and legal. It seems to have become viewed as an AI disruption victim but this seems about as true as the now discredited view that Adobe and Intuit were AI beneficiaries. This view has driven the PE to <19x and it is still growing at c5% p.a. with a ROIC of 18% and ROE of about 50%.
我们打算继续持有一篮子优质企业的股份,寄望并相信它们强劲的基本面回报终将转化为长期卓越的股价和基金业绩表现;同时,在当下这种非同寻常的市场环境若是出现逆转,我们的基金在此期间应该能对由此引发的任何冲击保持相对免疫力。
We intend to continue holding a portfolio of good businesses in the hope and expectation that their strong fundamental returns will shine through into superior share price and fund performance over the long term and that in the interim our fund will prove relatively immune from any shocks which arise if or when the present extraordinary market conditions unwind.
最后,再次祝您新年快乐,并感谢您一直以来对我们基金的支持。
此致敬礼,
Finally, once more I wish you a happy New Year and thank you for your continued support for our Fund. Yours sincerely,
特里·史密斯
首席执行官
Fundsmith LLP
Terry Smith CEO Fundsmith LLP
免责声明:Fundsmith 股票基金的关键投资者信息文件及英文版招募说明书可通过 Fundsmith 网站获取或应要求提供,投资者在购买基金份额前应查阅这些文件。过往业绩并非未来表现的保证。投资价值及其收益可能上升也可能下跌,并会受到汇率变动的影响,您可能无法收回最初投资的全部金额。Fundsmith LLP 不提供投资建议,也不就其产品的适宜性作出任何推荐。本文件属于金融推广材料,由 Fundsmith LLP 发布,该公司受金融行为监管局授权并监管。
Disclaimer: A Key Investor Information Document and an English language prospectus for the Fundsmith Equity Fund are available via the Fundsmith website or on request and investors should consult these documents before purchasing shares in the fund. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and be affected by changes in exchange rates, and you may not get back the amount of your original investment. Fundsmith LLP does not offer investment advice or make any recommendations regarding the suitability of its products. This document is a financial promotion and is communicated by Fundsmith LLP which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
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本文所表达的观点和意见均为 Fundsmith 截至本文件发布之日的看法,可能根据当前市场和经济状况发生变化,且不会进行更新或补充。
16 The views and opinions expressed herein are those of Fundsmith as of the date hereof and are subject to change based on prevailing market and economic conditions and will not be updated or supplemented.
来源:除非另有说明,均为 Fundsmith LLP、彭博和 FE Analytics 数据。
Sources: Fundsmith LLP, Bloomberg and FE Analytics unless otherwise stated.
数据截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日,除非另有说明。
Data is as at 31st December 2025 unless otherwise stated.
投资组合换手率是衡量基金交易活跃度的指标,计算方法为总买入和卖出股份减去总创设和清算,再除以基金的平均资产净值。
Portfolio turnover is a measure of the fund's trading activity and has been calculated by taking the total share purchases and sales less total creations and liquidations divided by the average net asset value of the fund.
市盈率和自由现金流收益率基于过去十二个月的数据,截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日,除非另有说明。若过去十二个月期间出现净亏损,则不计算百分比变动。
P/E ratios and Free Cash Flow Yields are based on trailing twelve month data and as at 31st December 2025 unless otherwise stated. Percentage change is not calculated if the TTM period contains a net loss.
MSCI 世界指数是一个覆盖全球各行业股票的发达市场指数,鉴于基金的投资目标与政策,该指数是一个公允的比较基准。
The MSCI World Index is a developed world index of global equities across all sectors and, as such, is a fair comparison given the fund's investment objective and policy.
英国投资协会全球行业英镑指数代表那些至少将 80% 资产投资于全球股票市场的基金,便于与特征大致相似的基金进行比较。
The Investment Association Global Sector in Sterling is representative of funds that invest at least 80% of their assets globally in equities. This facilitates a comparison against funds with broadly similar characteristics.
彭博英国政府债券 5-10 年系列-E 指数显示了如果您投资于英国政府债券可能获得的收益。
The Bloomberg Series-E UK Govt 5-10 yr Bond Index shows what you might have earnt if you had invested in UK Government Debt.
英镑利率显示了如果您投资于现金可能获得的收益。
The £ Interest Rate shows what you might have earnt if you had invested in cash.
MSCI 世界指数是 MSCI 公司的独家财产。MSCI 不对本报告中任何 MSCI 数据作任何明示或暗示的保证或陈述,也不承担任何相关责任。MSCI 数据不得进一步分发或用作其他指数、任何证券或最终产品的基础。本报告未经 MSCI 批准、审核或编制。全球行业分类标准(GICS)由 MSCI 和标普共同开发,是其独家财产,“GICS®”是 MSCI 和标普的服务商标。
MSCI World Index is the exclusive property of MSCI Inc. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or final products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s and ‘GICS®’ is a service mark of MSCI and Standard & Poor’s.
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