1996 年股东大会 · 上午场
欢迎致辞
Welcome
沃伦·巴菲特稍微早了点,但我想各位都找到座位了。我得说,这是我第一次看到这个开场视频。他们跟我说要给我个惊喜,果然没骗我。(笑声)马克·汉堡,我们的首席财务官,现在在办公室里人称“CB”,是他一手策划了整个环节。我想告诉各位,我们没有多媒体部门(听不清)。(掌声)整场会议都是由常规员工操办的。我们没有公关部、投资者关系部、多媒体部门或任何类似机构。所以每个人都来搭把手。而马克,从今往后,他将永久负责开场前的仪式。(笑声)今天来了很多人。希望大家都在主厅或三个分会场找到了座位。我算了一下,大概能容纳 5400 人。从历史数据看,每年大约有 62%,或者说正好 62% 申请了门票的股东会来参会。如果这个比例今天也成立,那我们就刚好坐满了。未来我们就会遇到一个问题——目前还没想到解决办法——不过还有一年时间。会议的流程是这样的:一开场,我们先处理正式事务。然后也会谈谈 B 股发行的事。所以比往年要稍微长一点。接着,问答环节会持续到中午左右。中午我们会短暂休息。外面有卖三明治,大家可以买来吃。(笑声)我和查理会在讲台上吃几个三明治。之后我们会一直待到下午 3 点左右,回答更多问题。到了下午,我相信分会场的各位都能到主厅找到座位。但各位从五湖四海赶来参会,我们真的想给每个人提问的机会。我和查理很乐意——但不管怎样,3 点必须结束。不过我们会很乐意留下来。各位当然可以随时离场。就像我以前解释过的,在查理说话时离场是比较体面的做法。(笑声)但——请随意。中午的时候,大家有机会一起行动。我们有巴士载各位去——如果你昨天之后还剩点钱的话——去奥马哈当地其他伯克希尔旗下的企业。这就是计划。希望每位股东的问题都能得到回答。我们把主厅分成六个区域,其他分会场也有几个区域。今天下午,大家都能聚在正厅。程序就是这样。我想各位都认识查理·芒格,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的副董事长,他之前也没看过那个视频。(笑声)而且他表现得——我觉得马克不敢给我们看。不过不管怎样——(笑声)——我们继续。各位可能会感兴趣,这是一份申请门票的股东名单。除了来自美国和 99 位加拿大的股东,还有澳大利亚、海峡群岛、英国、希腊、香港、以色列、葡萄牙、波多黎各、新加坡、瑞典和瑞士的股东。我不确定这些人都来了没有,但他们确实申请了门票。我已经见到不少远道而来的股东。
WARREN BUFFETTJust a little early, but I think everyone's had a chance to take their seats. I must say, this is the first time I've seen this program. They told me they'd surprise me, and they certainly did. (Laughter) Marc Hamburg, our chief financial officer, who is now known around the office as CB, was in charge of putting all this together. And we — I want you to know, we have no multimedia (inaudible). (Applause) This entire meeting is handled by a regular staff. We have no public relations department, or investor relations, or multimedia department, or anything of the sort. So, everybody just pitches in. And Marc will, forevermore, be in charge of the pregame ceremonies. (Laughter) We have a very large crowd today. I hope everybody has found a seat, either in this main room or in the three overflow rooms. I think we can handle around 5,400. And historically, 62 percent or just about exactly 62 percent, every year, of the people who request tickets have come to the meeting. And if that percentage holds true today, we have just filled the rooms. And we will have a problem in the future, which we haven't figured out the answer to yet. But we've got another year. The way we'll run the meeting is that we'll get the business out of way — out of the way — at the start. And we'll talk about the Class B issuance, then, too. So, it'll take a little longer than historically has been the case. And, then, we'll have Q & A for — until about noon. We'll have a short break at noon. There'll be sandwiches outside, which you can buy. (Laughter) And Charlie and I will have a couple of sandwiches up here at the podium. And, then, we will stay around until about 3 o'clock to answer more questions. And at that time, after noon, I'm sure everybody in the overflow rooms will be able to find a seat here in the main room. But people have come from great distances to attend this meeting. So, we really want to get a — give everyone a chance to get their questions asked. And Charlie and I are delighted to — but we'll have to break it up at three, no matter what. But we'll be delighted to stick around. You can leave anytime, obviously. As I've explained in the past, it's much better form to leave while Charlie is talking. (Laughter) But the — feel free to do that. And then at noon you'll get a chance to do it en masse. We have buses available to take you to — if you have any money left at all after yesterday — to take you to other business establishments of Berkshire, locally. So that will be the plan. I hope everyone does get their questions answered. We've got a system where we break this room into six zones. And we have a couple of zones in other rooms. And then this afternoon, everybody will be able to be here in the main room. So, that is the procedure. I'm sure you recognize Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who also had not seen that movie before. (Laughs) And showed — we were — I think Marc was afraid to show it to us. But in any event — (laughter) — we will go on. I thought you might be interested. This is a list of people that came in for tickets. And we had, in addition to 99 from Canada and, of course, the U.S., we had Australia, the Channel Islands, England, Greece, Hong Kong, Israel, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Singapore, Sweden, and Switzerland. I'm not sure all of those people are with us today. But they did send for tickets. And I've met a number that did come in from a distance.
选举董事
Election of directors
沃伦·巴菲特那么,在介绍了这些之后,我宣布会议正式开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,董事会主席。我欢迎大家来参加这次会议。希望各位周末愉快。除了我和查理,我还想介绍一下各位董事。今年各位从董事身上得到的“回报”可能不太划算。他们——自从上次会议以来,集体减了 100 磅。我想他们一直在靠董事费过日子。(笑声)和我们在一起的有霍华德·巴菲特——请起立。(掌声)苏珊·T·巴菲特。(掌声)马尔科姆·G·切斯三世。(掌声)以及小沃尔特·斯科特。(掌声)今天到场的还有德勤会计师事务所的合伙人,我们的审计师,罗恩·伯吉斯先生和克雷格·克里斯蒂安森先生。他们可以回答各位关于公司审计账目的问题。福雷斯特·克鲁特先生是伯克希尔的秘书,他会做会议记录。罗伯特·M·菲茨西蒙斯先生被任命为本次会议的选举监察人,他将核实董事选举的投票计数。本次会议指定的代理投票人是小沃尔特·斯科特和马克·D·汉堡。截至上周五,代理投票卡已经收回,代表“票数待定”。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTSo, with that introduction, I will call the meeting to order. I'm Warren Buffett, chairman of the board of the directors. And I do welcome you to this meeting. I hope everybody has a good time this weekend. And I'd like to introduce the directors, in addition to myself and to Charlie. Now, you don't get quite your money's worth this year from our directors. They’ve — collectively, they've lost 100 pounds since last — our last meeting. I think they've been trying to live on the director's fees. (Laughter) We have with us Howard Buffett — let's stand. (Applause) Susan T. Buffett. (Applause) Malcolm G. Chace III. (Applause) And Walter Scott Jr. (Applause) Along with us today are partners in the firm of Deloitte & Touche, our auditors, Mr. Ron Burgess and Mr. Craig Christiansen (PH). They're available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning their firm's audit of the accounts of Berkshire. Mr. Forrest Krutter is secretary of Berkshire. He will make a written record of the proceedings. Mr. Robert M. Fitzsimmons has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. He will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott Jr. and Marc D. Hamburg. Proxy cards have been returned through last Friday representing, it says “number to come.” (Laughter)
现场人士还有另一份稿子。
VOICEThere’s another script.
沃伦·巴菲特啊,好的,还有一份——哦,对。这是那部分的稿子:代理投票人将根据投票卡指示,行使 1,041,567 股伯克希尔股票的投票权。该股数构成法定人数。因此,我们将直接进入会议议程。我们先处理会议正式事务,然后休会。之后,我们会回答各位的问题。第一项议程是宣读上一次股东大会的会议纪要。我请小沃尔特·斯科特先生提出动议。
WARREN BUFFETTAh, OK, there’s another — oh, yeah. Here's the script on that one: 1,041,567 Berkshire shares to be voted by the proxy holders, as indicated on the cards. That number of shares represents a quorum. And we will therefore proceed — directly proceed — with the meeting. We will conduct the business of the meeting, then adjourn the formal meeting. After that, we will entertain questions that you may have. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott Jr. who will place a motion before the meeting.
小沃尔特·斯科特我提议,免于宣读上一次股东大会的会议纪要。
WALTER SCOTT JR.I move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?
现场人士我附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特动议已提出并得到附议。有意见或问题吗?我们将以口头表决方式对此动议进行投票。赞成者请说“赞成”。
WARREN BUFFETTThe motion has been moved and seconded. Are there any comments or questions? We will vote on this motion by voice vote. All those in favor say, “Aye.”
现场声音赞成。
VOICESAye.
沃伦·巴菲特反对者?动议通过。秘书是否有关于伯克希尔已发行、有投票权以及出席本次会议股份数量的报告?
WARREN BUFFETTOpposed? Motion's carried. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding, entitled to vote, and represented at the meeting?
罗伯特·M·菲茨西蒙斯是的,我有。根据随本次会议通知一同寄出的委托书中所载(该通知及委托书通过一级邮件发送给截至 1996 年 3 月 8 日登记在册的所有股东,该日期为本次会议的股权登记日),当时伯克希尔·哈撒韦普通股共发行 1,193,512 股,每股有权在本次会议审议的动议中投一票。其中,截至上周五通过代理投票方式交回的股份共计 1,041,567 股,这些股份已在本会议上得到代表。
ROBERT M. FITZSIMMONSYes. I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent by first-class mail to all shareholders of record on March 8, 1996, being the record date for this meeting, there were 1,193,512 shares of Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 1,041,567 shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through last Friday.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。如果在场的任何股东希望撤销之前寄出的代理投票卡,并就代理说明中列出的两项议题亲自投票,他或她可以这样做。另外,如果任何在场的股东尚未提交代理投票卡,并希望获得选票就这两项议题亲自投票,也可以照此办理。如果您希望这样做,请向走道中的会议工作人员表明身份,他们会向您提供两张选票,一项议题一张。请需要选票的股东表明身份好吗?以便我们分发选票。本次会议的第一项议题是选举董事。有请小沃尔特·斯科特先生就董事选举向会议提出一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. If a shareholder is present who wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in and vote in person on the two items of business provided for in the proxy statement, he or she may do so. Also, if any shareholder that's present has not turned in a proxy and desires a ballot in order to vote in person on those two items, you may do so. If you wish to do this, please identify yourself to meeting officials in the aisles who will furnish two ballots to you, one for each item. Will those persons desiring ballots please identify themselves, so that we may distribute them? First item of business at this meeting is to elect directors. And I'll recognize Mr. Walter Scott Jr. to place a motion before the meeting, with respect to election of directors.
小沃尔特·斯科特我提议选举沃伦·E·巴菲特、苏珊·T·巴菲特、霍华德·G·巴菲特、马尔科姆·G·切斯三世、查尔斯·T·芒格和小沃尔特·斯科特为董事。
WALTER SCOTT JR.I move that Warren E. Buffett, Susan T. Buffett, Howard G. Buffett, Malcolm G. Chace III, Charles T. Munger, and Walter Scott Jr. be elected as directors.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
现场人士我附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特还有其他提名吗?有讨论吗?我在中国学了不少东西。我们这样做——(笑声)提名已准备就绪,可以付诸行动了。如果现场有股东亲自投票,现在请就董事选举在选票上做出标记,并将选票交给选举监察人。请代理权持有人也向选举监察人提交一份董事选举的选票,按照收到的指示投票。菲茨西蒙斯先生,准备好后请做报告。
WARREN BUFFETTAre there any other nominations? Is there any discussion? I learned a lot in China. We did so — (Laughter) The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the election of directors and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Will the proxy holders please also submit to the inspector of elections a ballot on the election of directors, voting the proxies in accordance with the instructions they have received? Mr. Fitzsimmons, when you're ready, you may give your report.
罗伯特·M·菲茨西蒙斯我的报告已准备好。截至上周五收到的代理权持有人的选票,对每位被提名人的投票数均不少于 1,040,667 票。该票数远远超过所有已发行股份的多数。特拉华州法律要求就精确计票结果(包括本次会议现场投票数)出具证明,该证明文件将提交给秘书,作为本次会议记录的一部分。
ROBERT M. FITZSIMMONSMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders received through last Friday cast not less than 1,040,667 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds the majority of the number of all shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law regarding the precise count of the votes, including the votes cast in person at this meeting, will be given to the secretary to be placed in the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,菲茨西蒙斯先生。沃伦·爱德华·巴菲特、苏珊·汤普森·巴菲特、霍华德·格雷厄姆·巴菲特、马尔科姆·G·切斯三世、查尔斯·托马斯·芒格和小沃尔特·斯科特已当选为董事。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Fitzsimmons. Warren E. Buffett, Susan T. Buffett, Howard G. Buffett, Malcom G. Chace III, Charles T. Munger, and Walter Scott Jr. have been elected as directors.
为何创设 B 类股
Why Class B shares were created
沃伦·巴菲特本次会议的第二项议程,是审议董事会关于修订公司章程的建议。拟议修订将在重述的公司章程中新增一项条款,授权董事会发行最多 5000 万股新的 B 类普通股,每股 B 类股的经济权利相当于现有普通股的 1/30,投票权为 1/200,并将公司现有普通股重新指定为 A 类普通股,同时允许每股 A 类普通股在持有人选择下转换为 30 股新的 B 类股。我想,在我们正式动议之前——我觉得现在正是讨论和听取各位关于发行 B 类股问题的好时机。我应该先给大家一点背景信息。我想你们中不少人已经了解相关背景了。但多年来,我们大概碰到过五六次,有人时不时提议创建一种纯伯克希尔的投资公司或单位信托。换句话说,就是设立一个只持有伯克希尔股票的实体,然后以更小面额把自己的份额分拆卖给公众。我们通常会劝阻这种做法,因为我们认为这种安排存在相当大的被滥用空间。我们的劝阻一直很成功,直到去年秋天,才有两项提案走到了向美国证券交易委员会申报核准这一步,这两项提案都涉及单位信托。这些单位信托将只持有伯克希尔股票,然后以小额面额卖给公众,最低投资额大概在 1000 美元左右。这些信托的持有者所买入的实体,有确定存续期限,却还附带着相当可观的成本和某些税务后果,而他们买进去时未必预料得到。查理和我当时担心,伯克希尔过往的辉煌纪录——这本身不可复制——再加上高销售佣金、低面额,以及关于伯克希尔和我本人的大量宣传报道(我们一直在努力劝阻这类宣传,大家今早已经看到了(笑声))——这种种因素结合在一起,最终会导致很多人买下这些单位信托,却根本不知道自己买的是什么,并对未来抱有不切实际的期望。而这反过来又会——因为这些单位信托会在市场上买入伯克希尔股票——造成巨大需求,去冲击固定供给,而这里面大部分供给几乎可以算是锁死的,因为人们持股成本很低、不愿卖出,我也希望他们出于其他原因同样不愿卖出。此外,这些信托的创设行为本身,以及对需求的推升,极有可能引发股价的投机性飙升,而这又会反过来引诱那些被推销过信托产品的人,觉得自己再不赶紧冲进去,就会错失更多良机。在某些类型的市场中,价格上涨本身就会催生需求。这不是一种可持续的需求。等到日后人们幻想破灭时,这种需求一旦逆转,会带来一大堆问题。但当大量满怀不切实际期望的买家、高额佣金和固定供给这几点同时存在时,这种潜在风险就摆在眼前。于是,我们试图劝阻这两家发起人。其中一家退了回去,但几个月后又推出了一项把伯克希尔和某些其他证券打包在一起的产品,那些其他证券至少被外界认为是在我们投资组合里的。我们开始接到一些人的反馈,显然他们完全弄不清自己买的是什么,也搞不清涉及的成本、潜在的税务影响或任何诸如此类的问题。所以,当时我们面临一个抉择——必须做决定,而且还得相当迅速地决定——到底什么才是这个问题的最佳解决方案,这个方案本身又不至于复刻那些发起人做法中我们认为有潜在危害的后果。显然,我们考虑过拆股。但我们担心,拆股会向各类人群释放某种信号,这些人本来就倾向于相信一些未必那么可信的未来业绩表现,拆股在他们眼里会变成一个低价买入的绝佳机会。当然,相对于价值,价格并不会真的更低,但面额会变小。这样的话,在固定供给背景下,极有可能引发与单位信托一样的问题,甚至可能是更大的问题。于是,我们想出了 B 类股这个主意,它会创造出与对拆细股份的有效需求相匹配的供给,而且发行方式不会对考虑买入的人构成特殊诱惑或虚假诱导。我们所做的其中一件事是,在发行 B 类股时,我们给它设定了一个佣金比率,这几乎是我多年来在华尔街见过的最低水平,因为我们不想让销售人员有太强的动力——我们——去兜售这些股票。我们希望任何感兴趣的人自行阅读招股说明书,自行思考,然后独立决策。我们还做了另一件事,与通常的商业做法截然相反,那就是我们宣布,人们想买多少我们就发行多少。要知道,这世上你想要卖掉什么东西,说出“每人限购一份”“必须趁早入场”“你得有关系才能拿到份额”这种话,效果会好得多。许多新股发行就是这么卖的,而且非常管用。我是说,这就好比俄罗斯那些老段子,人们排着长队,甚至排到跟前都不知道自己到底要买什么。这就是一种极其有效的销售手段。华尔街对此绝不陌生。但我们决定,为了减少任何那种“必须及早进场”“只有大户才拿得到”之类的情绪,我们反而要清楚响亮地公开宣布:每个想要的人都会有股票。这样,实际上就没有理由去假设——它不可能成为一只热门新股。我们还做了种种其他安排。所以,我——我们期望,吸引到的 B 类股股东,与在座各位的素质相同,他们都抱持投资心态,觉得自己是买入了企业的一部分,打算无限期地持有,甚至可能是终身持有。他们不会把它看作一小张可能因为是新股之类原因而非常抢手的纸片。对我们现有股票感到满意的股东,可以完全保持原有状态,这正是我和查理将要做出的选择。我们让 B 类股在两处细节上,相对于 A 类股稍微处于不利地位。B 类股投票权较低,并且不参与股东捐赠计划。这两项设定各有其理由,但除了这些明面上的原因,我们也存心不希望 B 类股被做得完全——只是略微逊色一点——但确实不如 A 类股那么有吸引力,因为我们不想做出任何推动所有人都转成 B 类股的事情。如果这种转换大规模开启,B 类股便会在二级市场上占据活跃度优势,进而形成自我强化的动力,让每个人都觉得理性上应该转换。所以我们有意维持一种状态:如果你持有 A 类股,除非你想卖出或赠予一部分不足单位 A 类股的持股,否则没有理由转成 B 类股。它在这方面会很方便。但除此之外,不应该有任何激励。如果 B 类股价格略高于 A 类股价格的 1/30,套利活动便会介入,使价差被限制在可忽略的极小幅度内。当然,B 类股也可能大幅低于 1/30,因为它不能转换成 A 类股。查理,在我们开始就此事提问之前,你有什么要补充的吗?我——
WARREN BUFFETTThe second item of business of this meeting is to consider the recommendation of the board of directors to amend the company's restated certificate of incorporation. The proposed amendment would add a provision to the restated certificate of incorporation authorizing the board of directors to issue up to 50 million shares of a new Class B common stock, with each Class B share having economic rights equivalent to 1/30th of a share of the current common stock, and with 1/200th of the vote, and to re-designate the company's current common stock as Class A common stock and to make each share of Class A common stock convertible into 30 shares of the new Class B stock at the option of the holder. I think, before we get into moving that motion — I think this would be a good time to have discussion and take your questions regarding the issuance of the Class B. And I should give you a little background. I think many of you know the background on this. But over the years, we've had probably half a dozen people, one time or another, propose that the creation of an all-Berkshire investment company or unit trust. In other words, an entity that would hold nothing but Berkshire stock, and then would parcel out its own shares in smaller denomination pieces to the public. And we have generally discouraged that because we felt that there was considerable potential for abuse in such an arrangement. And our discouragement has been successful up until last fall, when there was one — there were two proposals — that went as far as submission to the SEC for clearance, that involved unit trusts. And these unit trusts would've owned nothing but Berkshire shares and, then, been sold to the public in small denominations, probably with a minimum investment of around a thousand dollars or so. And holders of those trusts would've bought into an entity that had a defined life, but that had considerable, in the way of costs and some tax consequences, that they might not anticipate when they came in. And Charlie and I were worried that a combination of Berkshire's past record — which cannot be repeated — and high sales commissions, and a low denomination, and a lot of publicity about Berkshire and myself, which, as you've seen this morning, we attempt to discourage (Laughter) — The — that the — a great many people would end up buying these unit trust holdings without any idea, really, of what they were buying, and with unrealistic expectations as to the future. And that that would, in turn, create a considerable demand — because these unit trusts would go out and buy Berkshire shares — that would create a considerable demand against a fixed supply, much of which is almost unavailable because people have a low tax basis and are reluctant to sell, and I hope they're reluctant to sell for other reasons. And that the very action of the creation of these, and that push on the demand, would — might very well create some speculative spurt in the stock, which in turn, would induce people who had been approached about the trust to feel they were missing even more of a good thing by rushing in. Rising prices in certain kinds of markets create their own kind of demand. It's not a sustained demand. And it's a demand that the reversal of which, later on, when people become disillusioned, can cause a lot of problems. But that potential was there with a flood of buyers with unrealistic expectations, high commissions, and a fixed supply. So, we attempted to dissuade both of the promoters. One backed away and then came out a few months later with something that was a combination of Berkshire and some other securities, which were at least thought to be in our portfolio. And we started hearing from people that it was clear had no understanding of what they were buying, or the costs involved, or the potential tax implications, or anything of the sort. So, at that time, we faced — we had to make a decision, and we had to make it rather quickly, as to what would be the best solution to this problem that, in turn, wouldn't create the same sort of thing that we felt had potential harm when being done by these promoters. Obviously, we considered a split of the stock. But we were worried that a split would send out signals to all kinds of people who want to believe in things that may not be too believable about future performance and that they would look at it as some grand chance to buy in at a lower price. Of course, it wouldn't really be a lower price in relation to value. But it would be a lower denomination. And that, again, against a fixed supply, might very well have created the same kind of problem, maybe even a greater problem, than would occur with the unit trusts. So, we came upon the idea of the Class B shares, which would create a supply that would match the demand for, in effect, split shares, and that would be offered in a way that did not create special inducements, or to create false inducements to people thinking of buying. And one of the things we did was we stuck a commission on it, on the issuance of the Class B shares, that was about as low as any I've ever seen in many years in Wall Street, because we did not want salespeople to have a great inducement — we — to go out and sell the shares. We wanted anyone that was interested to read the prospectus, and think about it, and make their own decisions. And we did another thing, which is quite counter to the normal commercial approach, which is that we said we would issue as many shares as people wanted to buy. And, you know, you do much better in this world if you're selling something, to say "only one to a customer," and "you have to get in early," or "you have to know somebody in order to get shares." And many new issues are sold that way, and it's very effective. I mean, you know, it's like those old stories in Russia where there'd be lines, and people would get in them without knowing what they were going to buy when they got to the front of the line. And that's a very effective selling tool. And it's one that Wall Street is not unfamiliar with. But we decided that, to reduce any of that feeling that you have to get in early, or only the big guy's going to get it, or something of the sort, that we would announce loud and clearly that we would have shares available for everyone that wanted. So, there was no reason to assume that — it couldn't be a hot stock, in effect. And we've done various other things. So, I — our hope is that the Class B shareholders that we attract are of the same quality as the people in this room, that they have an investment attitude where they feel they are buying into part of a business, that they expect to stay with it for the indefinite future, maybe the rest of their lives. And they do not think of it as a little piece of paper that may be hot because it's a new issue or something of the sort. It lets the people who are happy with the present shares stay in exactly the same position, which is what I'm going to do, what Charlie will do. We have made the B very slightly disadvantageous, in two respects, to the A. It has a lower vote, and it will not participate in the shareholder contributions programs. There were reasons for both of those, but in addition to the — the explicit reasons, there also is the desire that the B not be made fully — it’s just a slight bit inferior —but it’s not fully as attractive as the A, because we did not want to do anything that pushed everybody into converting into the B. If that started in a big way, the B would then enjoy the better market, and it would create its own dynamic where it made sense for everybody to do it. So we have left it so there's no reason for you, if you own the A, to convert to the B, unless you wish to sell or give away some portion of your holding that would be less than a full A share. And it will be convenient for that reason. But beyond that, there should be no incentive. If the B should trade slightly above 1/30th of the price of the A, there will be arbitrage activity that will keep that from being anything other than a negligible amount. It, of course, could trade well below 1/30th because the B is not convertible into the A. Charlie, would you like to add anything before we start taking questions on this? And I —
查理·芒格没有。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERNo. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特——我鼓励每个人都提问。查理,你会注意到在会议期间,他不是按字数计酬的。(笑声)但我们——我鼓励每个——任何人都可以问任何问题。关于伯克希尔,没有糟糕的问题。我的意思是,去年我们讨论过优先股发行。人们提出了非常合理的问题。我想先说说 A 股和 B 股的两个差异点,关于股东指定捐赠计划,去年是每股 12 美元。除了希望 A 股比 B 股有很小的优势,这是不让 B 股参与的原因之一,实际操作上也会变得非常不切实际,比如拿 12 美元除以 30,然后征集慈善机构名称并指定捐款。我们目前的计划运作得还算高效。但我们不想寄出 1 美元或 2 美元的支票,那会变得非常低效。所以,我们已告知潜在的 B 股持有者,这种情况不会发生。因此,他们在购买时已完全知情。关于投票,B 股的发行会创造更多流通在外投票权。所以,除非情况有任何变化,通过发行股票——我们并不特别急于发行股票——我的投票会被稀释一些。坦率地说,我并不想创造更多股票来稀释巴菲特家族的投票权。这次行动会使其稍有稀释,因为我们现有所有流通投票权,加上 B 股的一些投票权。如果有大量 B 股转换,我们的持股比例确实会上升。但我想不出人们有什么理由去转换股票。所以,我认为这不太可能。最终,我认为一切会基本保持不变。而且,如我之前提到的,我们希望 B 股有轻微劣势。在其他所有方面,我们会像对待 A 股一样对待 B 股。我们在这次股东大会上遇到了人数问题。明年我们得想个办法。我们还没想出来。但有人建议说,B 股持有者可能坐次等座位之类的。我们不会搞那种事。(笑声)但从此刻起,除了我们在招股说明书中列出的两个例外,B 股将在所有方面与 A 股同等对待。因此,鉴于这一点,加上查理不愿详述,我们这里有六个区域。然后,在 overflow 房间还有另外两个区域。所以,如果 1 区有人提问,举手就行,会有人递麦克风。1 区在那边。2 区在角落。3、4、5 和 6 区。按顺时针方向依次进行。只需要举手,有人会把麦克风递给你。
WARREN BUFFETT— I encourage everyone to ask. Charlie, as you will note during the meeting, does not get paid by the word. (Laughter) But we — I encourage every — anyone to ask any question. There are no bad questions about this. I mean, it — last year, we talked about a preferred issue. And people had very valid questions. I might take those two points of difference between the A and B, just to start with, on the shareholder-designated contributions program, which was $12 a share last year. In addition to wanting the A to have a very small edge over the B, which would be a reason for not having the B participate, it also would get very impractical, in terms of taking $12, and dividing it by 30, and soliciting the names of charities and to designate contributions. We can handle the present program fairly efficiently. But we would not want to be sending out checks for a dollar or two, and it would get very inefficient. So, we have told prospective B holders that that's not going to happen. And so, they're fully informed coming in. In connection with the vote, the issuance of the B does create more votes outstanding. So, absent any change in the situation, through the issuance of shares which we are not particularly eager to issue, the vote — my vote — will be diluted, somewhat, by this. And, frankly, I had no desire to create a lot more shares which would dilute the vote of the Buffett family. It will be diluted, somewhat, by this action because we will have all the present votes outstanding, plus some votes from the B. If there is a lot of conversion to the B, it is true that our holding will go up, percentage-wise. But I see no reason why people really should convert. So, I don't think that's likely. I think, in the end, it'll stay very much the same. And as I mentioned earlier, we want there to be a slight disadvantage to the B. In all other respects, we will treat the B just as the A. We have a problem with numbers at this annual meeting. We're going to have to do something next year. And we haven't figured it out yet, either. But the suggestion was made by someone that maybe the B would get second-class seating or something. We're not going to have any of that. (Laughter) But from this point forward, with the point — with the exception of two things we put in the prospectus, the B shares will be treated, in every way, as equivalent to A. There — So, with that, and with Charlie's reluctance to elaborate, we have a six-zone system in here. And then we have another two zones in the overflow rooms. So, if there are any questions in zone 1, somebody — just raise your hand and somebody will bring a microphone. Zone 1 is over there. Two is back in the corner. Three, four, five, and six. So it just goes right around clockwise. Just raise your hand and somebody will bring a microphone to you.
B 股 IPO 价格对所有人相同
Class B IPO price is the same for everyone
沃伦·巴菲特我想 1 区有人提问。
WARREN BUFFETTWe've got a question, I think, in zone 1.
现场股东早上好。我是来自得克萨斯州班德拉的 Marshall Patton(音)。当 B 股定价完成后,我们这些通过电脑程序下单的人,能否确保无论通过谁买入,都按同一价格成交?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning. I'm Marshall Patton (PH) from Bandera, Texas. And when the price is struck on the Class B shares, those of us who buy our shares through computer programs, do we have assurance that, whoever we buy from, that that will be the price that we pay for these shares?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,是这样——价格很可能在本周三晚上或前后确定,所有人支付完全相同的价格。顺便说一句,这个价格的绝大部分会归伯克希尔所有。也就是说,相比于任何其他发行,本次的承销价差极低。首次发行完成后,所有人支付的价格都一样:大型机构也好,只买一股的投资者也好,价格完全相同。接下来,我们预计该股将在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,很可能是周四早上。我相信全球最顶尖的专营交易员就在这里——吉米·马奎尔(Jimmy Maguire),他目前在操作我们的普通股,往后也会同时处理 A 股和 B 股。吉米,你在吗?要不要站起来让大家看看?——就是他。全球最牛的专营交易员,吉米·马奎尔。(掌声)我记得他每年还领唱《等到阳光重现,内莉》(Wait 'Till the Sun Shines, Nellie)。你偶尔能在 CNBC 和《晚间商业报道》上看到他。我也借这里做个公平亮相。吉米周四起会同时为两类股票做市。正如我所说,过了头几天,B 股不可能比 A 股的三十分之一高出许多,因为一旦出现哪怕极小的套利价差,人们就会买入 A 股并卖出 B 股。不过两类股票都会有自己的市场。两者的交易单位都是 10 股,这就是所谓的整手。通常纽约证券交易所的整手是 100 股,但在伯克希尔这两只股票上,整手是 10 股。我读过一两篇报道说最低购买量是 10 股,这不对。每只股票——每一类股票——最低买入量是 1 股。你可以买 1 股或 2 股,也可以卖 1 股或 2 股。你会遇到零股费差,就和交易那种整手 100 股、但买卖不足 100 股时一样。但两类股票都没有最低数量限制。等清算交割环节理顺——可能头几天会有点小问题——你们很快就能在报纸上看到“伯克希尔 A”和“伯克希尔 B”的报价了。我觉得周四过后一切会很明朗。至于电脑下单这件事,我了解得不多。但在首次发行层面,我相信是通过销售团的约 137 家成员券商来执行,对你来说,不论找谁买,价格都相同。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the — well, the price — there'll be a price established, probably, Wednesday night or thereabouts of this week. And everybody will pay the same price. And a very high percentage of that price, incidentally, will come to Berkshire. I mean, there is a very, very low underwriting spread, compared to any other offering. Now, once the initial offering is — everybody will pay the same price: large institutions, the buyer of one share will pay the same price. Subsequently, the stock will, we expect, will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange, probably, Thursday morning. And we have the world's greatest specialist here, I believe, Jimmy Maguire, who handles the trading, now, of the common and will handle the trading of both the A and B. Jimmy, are you here? Do you want to stand up? Just so — there he is. The world's greatest specialist, Jimmy Maguire. (Applause) I think he leads the singing of “Wait 'Till the Sun Shines, Nellie,” too, annually. You can see him on CNBC occasionally, and the Nightly Business Report. I want to give equal time here. The — But Jimmy will be trading both classes of stock starting Thursday. As I say — as I said, the — it will be impossible, after the first few days, it would be impossible for the B to sell much above 1/30th of the A, because people would buy the A and sell the B if more than a very small — with even the smallest of arbitrage differentials. But there will be markets in two shares and — in two classes. They will both trade in 10-share lots. That will be the round lot — so-called round lot. Usually the round lot on the New York Stock Exchange is 100 shares. But in the case of both Berkshire shares, the round lot will be ten shares. Now, I read one or two press accounts that said, therefore, the minimum purchase is ten shares. That's not true. The minimum purchase of each stock — each class of stock — is one share. I mean, you can buy one share or two shares. Or you can sell one share or two shares. And you have an odd lot differential, just as you would if you were working with less than 100 shares of a company whose stock traded in 100 share round lots. But there's no minimum size in the case of either share. And you will see, when they get mechanics straightened out, and they may have a little bit trouble with it, but you will see Berkshire A and Berkshire B in — quoted in the papers. And I think that you’re — that it'll be quite clear after Thursday what is going on, on that. I don't know about the computer purchases. But I don’t that — certainly, in terms of the initial offering, that will be through one of, I think, 137 people — or brokers — in the selling group. And it's the same, no matter who you deal with.
伯克希尔单位信托的弊端
Downside of Berkshire unit trusts
沃伦·巴菲特2 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 2?
现场股东我叫 David Hendel(音),来自佛罗里达州博卡拉顿。据您所知,这项计划能否有效遏制单位信托?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is David Hendel (PH). I'm from Boca Raton, Florida. To your knowledge, will this program effectively discourage the unit trusts?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这当然是我们设计的初衷。我想答案是肯定的,因为我看不出单位信托——无论是通过首次发行还是后续交易——能以比直接买 B 股更高效、成本更低廉的方式让人参与伯克希尔。别忘了,如果成立一只单位信托,它必须到市场上买入伯克希尔股票,因此会承担人们买股的所有成本,然后还要在此之上叠加其他费用。除了初始佣金外,它甚至还收一笔估值费。这份工作正是我想干的,因为每(笑声)——每隔三个月或不管多频繁,也许每天,某个人的职责是评估这只信托的价值,而这份活所需的极大技能就是在报纸上按字母顺序找到它的行情——(笑声)。评估费那一栏是留空的,但我直觉那是天下最逍遥的饭碗之一。(笑声)还有个额外问题。我是说,如果这类单位信托下场后走不远,它们可能会变成某种无人问津的孤儿,运营成本也一定会变得昂贵。再者,伯克希尔向来不派股息,但信托却要不断产生开支,包括刚才说的估值费等等——正因为它有开支,就得定期卖掉一点股票来支付费用,而这会给每一位信托份额持有人带来税务后果。换句话说,人们搞不清楚——我们觉得他们根本弄不清自己卷进了什么。更严重的问题是,有人会拿我们过往的业绩在他们眼前晃,或亮出伯克希尔股价走势图说:“瞧,你也有机会复制这种回报。”而它显然做不到,本来也做不到。不过从我们目前看到的情况来看,我们预期本次发行规模为 35 万股。尽管我们仅面向知情买家,但申购单数量所对应的需求已经极为庞大。我觉得如果把那个圈子扩大到不知情买家,那场面可就真够瞧的了。所以我认为答案就是,我们未来不会受单位信托困扰。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's certainly designed to. And I think the answer to that is yes, because I see no way that a unit trust — either in connection with the initial offering or with the subsequent trading — I see no way that the unit trust could offer people as an efficient and inexpensive way of participating in Berkshire as direct purchase of the B. Bear in mind, if a unit trust were established, it would have to buy Berkshire shares in the market. So, it would have the costs that people have in buying shares. And, then, on top of it, it would superimpose these other costs. And in addition to the initial commission, they even had a valuation fee. That was a job I wanted to have because every — (laughter) — three months or however often, maybe every day, somebody, their job was to evaluate this trust value which involved the great skill of being able to locate it alphabetically — (laughter) — in the newspaper. The figure was left blank as to what the evaluator's fee would be. But I had a feeling that it was one of the more cushy jobs available. (Laughter) There was an added problem, too. I mean, if these unit trusts started and did not get off the ground very far, they could've become something in the way of orphans. And they certainly would've become expensive to operate. And, then, with Berkshire paying nothing in the way of dividends, but with the trust incurring expenses, including this evaluator's fee, among others — but with the trust incurring expenses, they would have to sell small amounts periodically to pay the expenses. And that would create tax consequences for every unit trust holder. I mean, people would not know what — we felt they would not know what they were getting into. The more serious problem is that somebody would flash our past record in front of them or show them some chart on Berkshire's stock price and say, "You know, this is your chance to do the same thing." And it, obviously, isn’t — wouldn't have been. And — but based on what we have seen, right now, we anticipate the offering being 350,000 shares. But the extent to which the number of tickets involved, that even seeking out informed purchasers only, there's very substantial demand. So I think if you widen that circle to include uninformed, it might have been quite an experience. I think the answer is that we will not have a problem with the unit trusts in the future.
没有 B 股二次发行计划
No plans for Class B secondary offering
沃伦·巴菲特3 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?
现场股东我是来自科罗拉多州博尔德的 Adam Ingle(音)。关于您即将发行的 B 股数量,您是打算周三看看申购簿,然后发足量把需求全部消化掉吗?如果它日后变得炙手可热,您有没有做二次发行的打算?
AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm Adam Ingle (PH) from Boulder, Colorado. In terms of the number of shares that you're going to issue, B shares, do you plan to just look at the book on Wednesday and issue enough to totally satisfy the demand? And do you have any plans to do a secondary if it starts becoming a hot number?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯。我想我们的计划是根据周二晚上或周三早上——或者不管确切的截数时刻——浮出水面的需求来量身定制发行规模。这次发行正是要达成这个目标。与大多数发行类似,我预期承销商——目前这还只是我的推测,不过业内很常见——会卖出的股票比初始发行量多一些,目的是在该证券中构建一些空头头寸。接着,他们可以从公司这里获得一项选择权——在 30 天内额外买入不超过我们初始发行量 15% 的股票,用来保护他们的空头头寸。这份空头头寸本身也有助于后续形成一个秩序井然的二级市场。但本质上,我们会根据周中看到的需求来调整发行体量。我们没有任何二次发行计划。我认为这件事的宣传已经足够充分,销售团网络也相当庞大,因此那些有兴趣但偏向买入小额面值的人,到时都会得到机会。我估计上市后——嗯,目前迹象表明,会有 35 万股的流通盘。按照我们现在看到的情况,持有人数量会相当大。所以,我认为从周四早上在交易所开始交易起,有这么大的供给量和这么多的买家参与,市场应当会运行得比较理性。因此,后续我不打算再做什么动作。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, I think what we plan is to tailor the size of the offering to fit the demand that appears Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, or whenever the exact moment will be on that. But the offering will be designed to do that. Like most offerings, I would anticipate that the underwriter will — and this is a supposition at the moment — but I — it's frequently done — would sell some more shares than the initial offering with the intention of creating some short position in the security. And, then, they have an option to take — from the company — for 30 days up to 15 percent of whatever we initially sell, which protects them on their short position. But the short position also helps in terms of having an orderly market in the stock, subsequently. But we will, essentially, tailor the size of the issue to the demand as it appears to us midweek. We have no plans for any secondary offering. I think this has been sufficiently publicized. There's a large network of selling group members. So that people that are interested, but wanted to buy in a smaller denomination, will have had their chance. I think there will be a — well, present indications, there'd be 350,000 shares out. There would be a fairly large — a large — number of holders based on what we're seeing. So, the market should, starting Thursday morning on the exchange, there should be, in my opinion, a reasonable market based on that kind of quantity and the number of people buying. And so, I anticipate nothing subsequently.
我们不认为伯克希尔股票“被低估”
We don't think Berkshire shares are "undervalued"
沃伦·巴菲特4 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 4?
现场股东能听到我说话吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERCan you hear me?
沃伦·巴菲特能。
WARREN BUFFETTYep.
现场股东我叫汤姆·康拉德,来自弗吉尼亚州麦克莱恩。我(听不清)来参加这次会议,并且上周告诉所有朋友和家人买这只股票。但我读到一些文章说,你说你不会建议朋友和家人以当前价格买入。我只是担心,如果我跑出去告诉他们,你为什么会这么说——你的看法是什么——我应该去告诉我的朋友和家人吗?——(笑声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name’s Tom Conrad (PH). I’m from McLean, Virginia, and I (inaudible) to this meeting and tell all my friends and family members to buy it last week. But I’ve been reading in some publications that you said that you would not advise your friends and family members to buy it at its current pricing. And I’m just concerned, if I go out and run and tell them why you’re saying — what your feeling would be, should I go tell my friends and family members? — (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我觉得这个问题还是留给你自己吧。我说的是——(笑声)——我说的是,在目前的价格下,我和查理不认为伯克希尔的股票被低估了。而且,这有时不是报道的内容。我是说,有时候人们说我们认为它被高估了。我们没有——如果你看招股说明书,或者如果你看——如果你看招股说明书,你会看到我们说的是,我们不认为它被低估了。现在,我觉得有点好笑的是,人们认为这是一个在做公开募股的人说的令人惊讶的声明。但如果你稍微想想,你能想象一家管理层出去对全世界说,“我们在卖给你一些东西——一只新股——而且它被严重低估了”吗?如果你出去对公众说,“我们在卖给你价值 1 美元的东西,然后我们将以 80 美分的价格卖给你”,那你会对你现在的股东说什么?这会让我非常不高兴。所以,我认为任何谈论出售自己的股票、并说它被严重低估的管理层,要么不知道什么对现有股东有利,要么他们可能言不由衷。我们不会出售——我们不会以我们认为对现有股东不充分的价格,出售你们在伯克希尔中的一部分权益。就这么简单。如果我们出售公司 1% 的股份,而 35 万股接近 B 类股的这一数字,我们就是在出售你们在喜诗糖果中的 1% 所有权。我们是在出售你们在 GEICO 中的 1% 所有权。我们是在出售你们在《布法罗新闻》中的 1% 所有权。这些都是有价值的资产。我们无意以对现有股东不公平的价格出售这些实体中的 1%、10% 或 100%。这并不意味着对新股东不公平,但我们不会——如果我们认为股票被低估,我们就不会出售它。我不确定如果我们在单位信托出现时持有那种仓位,我们会怎么做。但我们有——并在招股说明书中说明——但我们没有出售我们自己的任何股份。在新股发行中,你经常看到现有持有人出售股票。但你知道,我几乎 100% 的净资产都在伯克希尔,这让我非常满意。我管理着一个在 1964 年设立的信托。我是唯一的受托人。我可以在那个信托里做任何我想做的事。设立信托的人免除了我对集中投资的责任。我有一些家庭成员是该信托的受益人。那个信托除了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票什么都不持有。这完全没有困扰我。那——我不是在推荐购买。但我持有伯克希尔完全没有任何问题。但我们不希望——(掌声)——我们不希望人们认为,当他们买入伯克希尔时,他们买的是被低估的东西,因为它不是。我们在招股说明书的第四个警示条款中说过,我们希望人们只有在期望长期持有时才买入。查理和我期望长期持有。事实上,也许有一天你们会看到我们坐在这里,却不知道旁边的人是谁了。(笑声)但我们会装模作样的。(笑声)这——你知道,这就是我们对伯克希尔的态度。我们不希望那些认为它会成为热门股或一年后卖得更高的人进来,因为我们完全不知道一年后它会卖得更高还是更低。从来都不知道。我们确实认为,就伯克希尔吸引了一类特殊的股东而言,他们确实把自己看作拥有企业一部分权益的人,就像他们拥有一块农场或一栋公寓楼的一部分一样,并且他们期望终身持有,我们认为这是一件完全明智的事情,因为我们自己就是这么做的。但我们不想走得更远了。
WARREN BUFFETTI think I'll leave that one up to you. What I said — (laughter) — I said, at present prices, Charlie and I do not think Berkshire stock is undervalued. And that, now that is not what's gotten reported sometimes. I mean, sometimes people have said we thought it was overvalued. We did not — if you look at the prospectus or if you look at the — if you look at the prospectus, you will see that what we said was we do not think it's undervalued. Now, I find it somewhat entertaining that people regard that as kind of an amazing statement by somebody making a public offering. But if you think about it a bit, can you imagine a management that goes out and says to the world, "We are selling you something — in a new stock — and it's way undervalued." What do you say to your present shareholders if you go out and say to the public, "We're selling you something that's worth a dollar, and we're going to sell it to you for 80 cents?" Now, that would leave me very unhappy. So, I feel that any management that is talking about selling their stock and they say it's very undervalued, either doesn't know what's good for their present shareholders or they may have their tongue in cheek. We would not be selling — we would not sell a part of your interest in Berkshire at a price which we did not feel was adequate for the present shareholders. It's that simple. If we sell 1 percent of the company, and 350,000 shares is close to that figure of B, we are selling 1 percent of your ownership in See's Candy. We're selling 1 percent of your ownership in GEICO. We're selling 1 percent of your ownership in The Buffalo News. Those are all valuable assets. We have no intention of selling 1 percent, or 10 percent, or the hundred percent of any of those entities at a price that is not fair to present shareholders. That doesn't mean it's unfair to new shareholders, but we’re not going to — we would not be selling the stock if we thought it was undervalued. I'm not sure what we would've done if we'd had that position when the unit trust came along. But we have — and put in the prospectus — but we are not selling any of our shares. Frequently, on a new offering you see present holders. But, you know, I have very close to 100 percent of my net worth in Berkshire and it leaves me quite happy. I've got a trust I run set up in 1964. I'm the sole trustee. I can do anything in that trust I want. And I'm freed by the person who set up the trust of responsibility for a concentration of investments. And I have some members of my family who are beneficiaries of that trust. That trust owns nothing but Berkshire Hathaway stock. That doesn't bother me at all. That — I'm not recommending purchase. But I'm perfectly happy owning Berkshire. But we do not want — (applause) — we do not want people to think, when they buy into Berkshire, that they're buying something that's undervalued, because it's not. And we say in that fourth caveat on the prospectus that we want people to buy it only if they expect to be holders for a very long time. Charlie and I expect to be holders for a very long time. And, in fact, you may see us up here sometime where we don't know who the guy next to us is. (Laughter) But we'll put on an act, though. (Laughter) The — we — You know, that is our attitude toward Berkshire. We do not want people to come in who think it's going to be a hot stock or selling for more a year from now, because we don't have the faintest idea whether it's going to be selling for more or less a year from now. Never have had. We do think that to the extent that Berkshire attracts a special class of shareholder that really looks at themselves as owning a part interest in a business, like they'd own a part of a farm or part of an apartment house, and they expect to hold it, really, for the rest of their lives, we think that it's a perfectly sensible thing to do because we're doing it ourselves. But we don't want to go beyond that.
B 类股募集资金暂无计划
No plans for the Class B proceeds
沃伦·巴菲特我不确定我们是否问了第 4 区。我们能回去吗?
WARREN BUFFETTI'm not sure whether we got zone 4. Can we go back there?
现场股东我叫戈登·谢泼德(Gordon Shepherd,音),来自蒙特利尔。我想知道你们对这笔钱有什么计划吗?(笑声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Gordon Shepherd (PH) from Montreal. I wondered whether you had any plans for what to do with the money? (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,答案在招股说明书里,但——我们没有立即使用这笔钱的计划。但我们以前多次面临过这种情况。我的意思是,资金——资金的流入和流出,在我们看来,不应该试图在这个世界里匹配得太精确,因为你获得投资和商业机会的时间,与资金流入的时间是不同的。经营企业或管理投资最重要的纪律之一就是——不要试图让你的行动仅仅与现金的可用性相协调。随着时间的推移,我们找到了使用资金的方法。对我们来说,管理 170 亿美元比当初公司只有 2000 万美元时要困难得多。这毫无疑问。我们多次指出过这一点。而且,如果我们变得更大——我希望如此——这还会变得更困难。但事实上,如果这次发行有 4 亿美元进来或者其他什么金额,这真的和其他方式进来 4 亿美元没什么区别。当我们的浮存金增长时,我们就吸收更多资金。当我们的收益被留存时,我们就吸收更多资金。当我们——我忘了大都会/美国广播公司交易中的支票金额是多少,但肯定在一天内进来了超过 10 亿美元。所以,钱是同质的,我们必须随着发展不断寻找越来越大的目标。这正是我们关注的重点。但收钱不会困扰我。如果我们不收钱,也不会困扰我。如果我们收进三倍的钱,也不会困扰我。这没太大区别。我们将会——对我和查理来说,持续的挑战就是随着时间推移进行资本配置。而且这是一个不错的挑战。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the answer to that is in the prospectus, but the — we have no immediate plans for the money. But we’ve faced that situation a number of times. I mean, the money — the inflow of money and outflow of money should not be, in our view, attempted to be matched too carefully in this world, because you get investment and business opportunities at times that differ from the times that funds come in. And one of the most important disciplines in running a business or managing investments is that — is to not get your — not to try to coordinate your actions simply with the availability of cash. Over time, we found a way to use money. It's much tougher for us to run 17 billion than it was when we had 20 million in the business. There's no question about that. And we pointed that out many times. And it'll get tougher still if we get larger, which I hope we do. But the fact that, if 400 million comes in on this offering or whatever, that's really no different than 400 million coming in in some other manner. And when our float grows, we take in more money. When our earnings are retained, we take in more money. When we have — I forget what the check would've been on the Cap Cities transaction, but it was certainly well over a billion dollars that came in on a single day. So, money's fungible, and we have to keep looking for bigger and bigger things as we go along. And that's what we do focus on. But it doesn't bother me to take it. It wouldn't bother me if we weren't taking it. It wouldn't bother me if we took in three times as much. It doesn't make a lot of difference. And we will have — we — the constant challenge for Charlie and me is to allocate capital is we go along. And it's a nice challenge. (Laughter)
劝阻抱有不合理预期的买家
Discouraging buyers with unreasonable expectations
沃伦·巴菲特第 5 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 5?
现场股东您好。我是李·德布罗夫(Lee Debroff,音),长期股东,我想,现在有年头了,那时股东大会还更私密些。我不太确定应该看着电视上的您还是台上的真人。不过,我坐在您的极右边。我看到您周围所有警卫和安保措施等等。然后,我看到 B 股发行。我有点好奇,从您的角度看,您是否觉得自己可能和教皇或总统处境相似?我绝对认真地问,因为我认为您可能不像我们有些人那样清楚自己在内布拉斯加奥马哈以外的名气。完全不懂投资的人都清楚您是谁。当他们看到这次发行时,我认为您可能会发现,有相当多人只是想拥有一块您的股票,好说他们持有您的股份,而根本不了解自己在做什么。我注意到,我试着读这里的小字——在第 14 页第一段第二行,您表示可能发行大约 5000 万股 B 类普通股。因此,我想请您谈谈您所处的这种情况,也许您对自己的受欢迎程度有些缺乏了解。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi there. Lee Debroff (PH), long-time shareholder, I think, going back a number of years now to when it was a little more intimate affair. Not quite sure whether I should look at you in the TV here or in real life, on stage. But anyway, I'm on the very right of you. And I see all the guards around you, and I see all the security and that sort of thing. And then, I see this offering of the Class B. And I sort of wonder whether, from your perspective, you feel you might be in the same boat that the pope and the president are? And I mean this absolutely sincerely, because I don't think that you have, perhaps, as good a handle as some of us do on the renown that you carry outside of Omaha, Nebraska. People who have no idea what investments are about are fully aware of who you are. And when they see this offering, I think you may find that there are substantially more people who are interested in just having a piece of you for the sake of saying they have a piece of you than having absolutely any idea what they're doing. And I notice that on — I try to read the fine print here — on page 14, first paragraph, second line, that you indicate some 50 million shares of Class B common stock may be offered. And so, I'd like you to comment on this situation that you find yourself in, where you may be, perhaps, out of touch with the popularity that you have.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我的第一反应是:也许我应该告诉我的理发师,我们可以省下剪下的头发卖掉。(笑声)——我不认为情况像您说的那么极端。但是,你知道,我——首先关于 5000 万股,我们必须授权足够多的股份,因为我们要允许每一股 A 类股——或者说现有普通股——但 A 类股可以转换成 B 类股。所以我们必须有已授权的股份来覆盖现有大约 120 万股乘以 30 倍的数量。因此,实际上有 3600 万股是为现有普通股预留的。而且,既然我们在授权——好吧,我们需要那么多,否则如果每个人都来转换,我们就没有实际可用的股份。这不会发生。但我们仍然必须为此做好准备。我们没有任何计划发行大量股票。不过,您提到的那个问题,我认为您比我更强调了一点,但——这正是我们所担心的,就单位信托而言。有人认为从这种基础出发,一切可以重来,这在数学上简直是开玩笑。查理和我会满足于少得多的情况,你知道,就在今天。而且我们已经尽了一切努力——我是说,如果我们没做这个,单位信托也会推进。我认为他们会利用您提到的这种现象来赚钱。几年后,你知道,那就不会——我的处境会有点不同,因为如果人们的期望没有实现,他们会非常失望。我们已经尽一切可能,我认为,来筛选出那些可能有不切实际信念的人。每个人都应该在购买股票前阅读招股说明书,并且——我认为我们已经量身定制了——我们在设计所做的一切时尽量做到最好,以缓和您谈到的这种现象。可能会有少数人进来,但不会太多。查理,你有什么想法吗?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, my first reaction: maybe I should tell my barber we could save the clippings and sell them. (Laughter) The — I don't think it's quite as extreme as you say. But, you know, I — in relation to the 50 million first, we have to authorize enough shares, because we are going to allow every share of class A — or present common stock — but the class A, to convert to B. So we have to have the shares authorized to take care of 30 times the present one point almost two million shares. So, 36 million shares, in effect, are reserved for the present common stock. And, as long as we were authorizing it — Well, we need that much, or we wouldn't have the shares actually available if everybody came around to convert. That's not going to happen. But we still have to be prepared for it. We have no plans to issue a lot of shares. The — but the point you mention, which I think you stressed a little more than I would've, but the — that is what we were worried about, in terms of the unit trusts. There are people that think that it can all happen again from this kind of a base which, you know, is mathematically a joke. And Charlie and I would settle for one whole lot less, you know, right today. And we have done everything we can — I mean, if we hadn't done this, the unit trusts would've moved forward. And I think they would've cashed in on that phenomenon you suggested. And in a few years, you know, it would not — I would've been in a somewhat different position because people can get very disillusioned if they have hopes that aren't realized. And we have done everything possible, I think, to filter out those who might have an unrealistic belief. And everyone should read a prospectus before they buy shares, and — I think we have tailored — we’ve designed what we're doing about as well as we can to moderate that phenomenon you’re talking about. There may be a few come in but not too many. Charlie, do you have any thoughts on that?
查理·芒格嗯,如果我们只发行我们正在谈论的数量,那对伯克希尔来说几乎没什么影响。那会是 1%——
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, if we only issue the amount we're now talking about, it's sort of a non-event around Berkshire. It’d be 1 percent —
沃伦·巴菲特是的,是 1%。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It's 1 percent.
查理·芒格——大概就那样的情况——这解决了那些不光彩追随者的问题——(笑声)——而 1% 又有什么关系呢?(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGER— or something like that of the — It solves the problem of these disreputable followers — (laughter) — and 1 percent, what does it matter? (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特等一下,你刚才提到的那句话,说的是之前查理讲的:“我只想知道我会死在哪里,这样我就永远不会去那里”。(笑声)嗯,我们对这个问题确实有思考,从某种意义上说——我们信奉逆向工程。我们怎么阻止那些几年后确实会过得不开心的人买入呢?这有点像唱乡村歌曲。你们大家应该把这些歌倒着唱。那样一来,你就能赢回你的房子、赢回你的车——(笑声)——赢回你的老婆,还有——
WARREN BUFFETTWait, you heard that remark, referring to Charlie earlier, about all I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there. (Laughter) Well, we think about that, in terms — we believe in reverse engineering. And how do we keep people from buying it, who really are going to be unhappy, you know, a few years later? You know, it's a little like singing country songs. You all — you should sing them backwards. That way, you get your home back and your auto back and — (laughter) — your wife back, and —
几乎就像直接从伯克希尔购买
Almost like buying direct from Berkshire
沃伦·巴菲特6 区?那边有——
WARREN BUFFETTZone 6? Have we got —?
现场人士这边刚才有人举手,对吧?这里。就在这儿。
VOICEThere was a hand over here, wasn’t there? Here. Right here.
现场股东早上好。我是来自芝加哥的丽娜·洛维(音),很高兴来到这儿。话筒——
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning. I'm Rena Lowie (PH) from Chicago, proud to be here. At mic —
沃伦·巴菲特我们在哪儿?哦,在这儿。好。
WARREN BUFFETTWhere are we? Oh, over here. OK.
现场股东有个问题老有人问我,我确实不知道答案。有几个人想知道能不能直接从公司买。
AUDIENCE MEMBERI have a question that's been asked me, and I really don't know. Several people wanted to know if they could buy directly from the company.
沃伦·巴菲特答案是否定的。但所罗门兄弟是这次发行的承销商。他们有 100 多家,我记得是 37 家左右的经纪自营商——基本囊括了国内所有大机构——组成销售团。与我所见过的任何一次发行相比,公司为此付出的成本确实非常、非常低。以 AT&T 分拆——或者说出售朗讯——为例,那笔交易规模接近 30 亿美元——你知道,他们付出的百分比成本,会是我们在这次伯克希尔发行中成本的 2 倍以上。所以,从完成发行所涉及的、我称之为摩擦成本的角度看,B 股持有人几乎就像在直接从我们这里买入。事实上,如果我们自己操刀,成本可能更高。但公司本身并不是经纪自营商,要搞直接发行,得跳过一大堆不同的障碍才行。这次发行将全部通过经纪自营商进行销售。
WARREN BUFFETTThe answer to that is no. But Salomon Brothers is the underwriter of the issue. They have a hundred and, I think, 37-or-something broker-dealers, all — virtually all — the major ones in the country, in the selling group. The cost to the company of doing this are really very, very low compared to any issue I've seen. When AT&T had their spinoff — or sale of Lucent — which was close to a $3 billion deal — you know, their percentage costs were more than double what our costs will be, for example, on this offering of Berkshire. So, it's almost as if you’re buying it — a Class B holder — is buying it from us, in terms of the, what I would call the frictional costs involved of getting the issue done. In fact, if we handled it ourselves, it might cost more. But the company, itself, is not a broker-dealer. And it’s — it would require a whole group of different hoops to jump through in order to have a direct issue. It will be sold only through broker-dealers.
面向退休计划的纯伯克希尔基金?
All-Berkshire mutual fund for retirement plans?
沃伦·巴菲特7 区?这个提问是从另一个房间传来的。我们到了。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 7? This will come in from another room. Here we are.
现场人士7 区没有人提问。
VOICEThere aren't any questions in zone 7.
沃伦·巴菲特7 区没有提问。8 区?
WARREN BUFFETTNo questions in zone 7. Zone 8?
现场人士8 区没有人提问。
VOICENo questions from zone 8.
沃伦·巴菲特好。那我们回到 1 区。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Then, we'll go back to zone 1.
现场股东迈克·罗克(音),来自密歇根州弗林特,上帝眷顾之地。我在新闻里看到,在这次单位信托发行的同时,显然也有人试图发起专门持有伯克希尔股票的共同基金,我多少觉得这是个好主意。因为有一类潜在的伯克希尔股东,只能通过开放式或封闭式共同基金来持有伯克希尔的股票。那就是成千上万的教师和医院员工,他们未来的退休金放在 403(b) 计划里,这些计划只允许投资共同基金。所以,我想知道,首先,您之前知道这件事吗?如果知道,您考虑过吗?如果不知道,那您现在会考虑吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMike Rocker (PH) from Flint, Michigan, God's country. I noticed in the press, when this issue of the unit trust was going on, that there apparently also were some people trying to form mutual funds to carry Berkshire stock, which I kind of thought was a good idea, because there's one potential class of Berkshire owners that could only own Berkshire stock via either an open-end mutual fund or a closed-end mutual fund. And that is those thousands of teachers and hospital employees whose future retirement money is in 403(b) plans that are limited to investing in mutual funds only. And so, I wonder if, first of all, if you were aware of that? And if so, if you considered that? And if not, if you might?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,答案是,我之前不知道这件事。所以也就无从考虑。当然,这世上确实有一些共同基金持有伯克希尔的股份,但市面上并不存在纯伯克希尔基金。我想说的是:如果法律设置的方式,就你提到的这个群体而言,在某种程度上把他们的投资选择限制在只能买共同基金、不能买个股,那么,要是一只基金只持有一只股票,我估计连这都可能被视为一种规避手段。因为,按照我的理解,如果根据相关规定或法规不能直接买入通用汽车,那只持有一只通用汽车股票的基金,恐怕也会被当作一种绕过规则的方式。但答案就是,我们没考虑过这件事。我不知道这些规则的依据出自何处,不知道是哪个组织可以修改,还是它们本身就是某些法规的一部分。如果这些规则是由某个组织制定的,通过其董事会投票,也许就能允许在你说的那些计划里购买个股。但如果不是这样,在我看来,一只只持有单一股票的基金,确实很可能会被视为不过是在绕开规则。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the answer is I wasn't aware of that. So it wasn't considered. There are, of course, some mutual funds that own Berkshire shares. But there's no all-Berkshire fund, outstanding. I would say this: that if the law was set up to, in some way, to restrict investments of this group you're talking about to options that involve mutual funds but that don't involve individual stocks, I would think it might even be regarded as a way around it, if a fund owned nothing but one stock. Because, if you can't buy General Motors directly under, I assume, the relevant rules or statutes on that, it would seem that a fund that owned nothing but General Motors might be regarded as a way of getting around that. But the answer is that it was not considered. I don't know where the rules are derived, whether there — whether they can be changed by some organization or they're part of some statute. But if they're part of some organization, by a vote of their directors, they might be able to allow purchase of individual stocks within those plans that you describe. But if not, it does seem to me that an all one-stock fund is — might be regarded as simply a way around the rules.
对 B 股代码的建议
Suggestion for Class B symbol
沃伦·巴菲特第 2 区?
<<<END P 2>>>
WARREN BUFFETTZone 2?
现场股东艾伦·兰克(Alan Rank),来自宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡。您决定 B 股的代码了吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERAlan Rank, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Have you determined what the symbol will be for the Class B?
沃伦·巴菲特代码?没有,我们还没决定。
WARREN BUFFETTThe symbol? No, we haven't.
现场股东我可以提个建议吗?作为经纪人,那些给自己股票设 A 类和 B 类的公司会引起巨大混乱。如果可能,把代码设成像 BRB 这样简单的三个字母,能帮助人们在 CNBC 上追踪行情。作为经纪人,纽约交易所的四字母代码限制了我们很多输入时的操作。如果有可能,您把 B 股的代码保持为一、两或三个字母的简单形式,将不胜感激。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMay I make a suggestion? As a broker, the stocks that have come out and given theirselves Class A and Class B cause massive confusion. If there'd be any way to make symbol something like BRB and just keep it a simple, three-letter symbol, it aids people both in following it on the tape on CNBC. As brokers, four-letter symbols on the New York restrict a lot of things we can do as far as punching them in. If there's any way you could keep the symbol for the B a simple one, two or three-letter symbol, it would be greatly appreciated.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,谢谢你的建议。交易所通常非常合作,试图与我们配合。我是说,10 股交易单位对他们来说并不轻松。我相信,有时他们希望我们能更像其他在交易所上市的公司一点。但他们一直非常合作和乐于助人。而且我们——他们会听取我们建议的东西。我们听取他们建议的东西。所以,我们会尽量做任何有利于交易所和价格报告的事情。相信我,我们不会强加给他们任何东西。我没有特别偏好的名称。所以,我们看看他们有什么想法。我们会纳入那个建议。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, thanks for the suggestion. Now, the exchange has generally been exceptionally cooperative in trying to work with us. I mean, a 10-share trading unit is no piece of cake for them. And I'm sure, at times, that they have wished we were a little more like some of the other companies that list on the exchange. But they've been very cooperative and helpful. And we are — they’ll — they listen to things we suggest. We listen to things they suggest. So, we will try to do whatever facilitates things at the exchange and the reporting of prices. And it's nothing we will try to impose on them, believe me. I have no favorite name that I'm looking for. So, we'll see what they — what ideas they have. And we'll include that suggestion.
预计 B 股发行规模不会有重大变化
Not expecting big change in Class B offering size
沃伦·巴菲特第 3 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?
现场股东我是来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的宝拉·芬斯特。非常高兴能来这里。我是那种为数不多的第二代股东,好不容易从我爸爸那儿搞到了一张票。(清嗓子)三年前——
AUDIENCE MEMBERPaula Finster (PH) from Tulsa, Oklahoma. Very glad to be here. I'm one of those few second generation, finally finagled a ticket out of my dad. (Clears throat) Three years ago —
沃伦·巴菲特顺便说一句,她爸爸有个汽水机。你要是去塔尔萨,一定得去看看他。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTHer dad has a soda fountain, incidentally. If you're ever in Tulsa, be sure to see him. (Laughter)
现场股东他确实有。而且非常欢迎你回来。(笑声)三年前我在这里,关于电影院那个问题。考虑到增长——我知道你不会离开你心爱的奥马哈——但也许你可以建一个带顶棚的体育场——(笑声)——考虑到增长——(巴菲特笑)——停车位要够。(笑声)我的问题是,你之前说会有无限量的发行,想要多少都行。这个问题不是为了让芒格先生激动——
AUDIENCE MEMBERHe certainly does. And you're certainly invited to come back. (Laughter) I was here three years ago for the movie theater. And considering the growth — I know you won't leave your beloved Omaha — but maybe you could build a stadium with — that's covered — (laughter) — considering the growth — (Buffett laughs) — with adequate parking. (Laughter) Here's my question. You said there's going to be unlimited offering, as much as they want. This question is not designed to get a rise out of Mr. Munger, however —
沃伦·巴菲特那可不那么容易。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTThat's not easy to do. (Laughter)
现场股东明白,考虑到昨天的桥牌比赛。总之,我的问题是,你授权了最高 1%。如果像 5 区说的那样,这东西一下子疯起来,涨得更多怎么办?你说这 1% 是你的。那下一个 1% 也是你的吗?下一个 1% 是我们的吗?我知道我们是有限合伙人,你是控制合伙人。但这场游戏到底能玩多大?
AUDIENCE MEMBERUnderstood, considering the bridge game of yesterday. Anyway, my question is, you're authorizing up to 1 percent. What happens if it goes bananas, as zone 5 suggested, and it goes greater? You said this 1 percent is yours. Is the next 1 percent yours? Is the next 1 percent ours? Do — I know we are limited partners. And you're a controlling partner. But how far does this ballgame go?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,关于发行的规模——无论发行规模多大,对每个人的经济影响都一样。我的意思是,我们的股票和这个房间里其他人的股票没有任何区别。所以从经济角度看,我们根本不在乎最终发行的是大约 1%,还是 1.5%,或者 0.75%。只要我们不是以低于真实价值的价格卖出股票,就不会因此受到损害。所以这对我们无关紧要。大额发行不会给我们带来任何显著的好处。在我看来——距离发行只有几天了,而且这事已经传开一阵子了。所以我怀疑不会有什么巨大的变化。但我不知道答案。我的意思是,这可能取决于整个股市的走向。但我不认为你会看到发行规模出现巨大变化。如果有大的变化,我们显然会很快通知 SEC。SEC 一直希望我们,随着需求的变化,及时调整发行规模。封面页也会修改。我们已经这样做了。每天随着认购意向的出现,我们都尽量按照他们的指示来响应。截至上周五,我们的最佳估计是 35 万股。接下来一两天我们会再评估。但我不认为会有什么戏剧性的变化。不过我不知道。我不想——给你一个明确的答案。但这只是我的——一个强烈的感觉。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, in terms of the size of the offering, it — whatever the size of the offering, it affects everybody economically the same. I mean, our shares are no different than the ones than the people in this room. So, we do not care, from an economic standpoint, whether the issue turns out to be approximately 1 percent or whether it was 1 1/2 or 3/4 of 1 percent. It simply — as long as we're not selling the stock below its true value, we are not going to be hurt by it. So, that —it's inconsequential to us. We're not going to be helped in any significant way by a large sale. The — it would appear, to me —we're just a few days away from the offering, and it's been out there awhile. So, I would doubt if there's huge changes. But I don't know the answer to that. I mean, that could depend on what happens in the general stock market. But I don't think you'll see any huge change in the offering. If there were a big change, we, obviously, would very promptly let the SEC know. The SEC has wanted us, as we have seen changes in demand as we've gone along, promptly change the size of the offering. And the covering page gets modified. And we’ve done that. Every day as indications come along, we've tried to be responsive to their instructions on that. And the 350,000 shares is our best estimate, as of last Friday, and — We'll look at it the next day or two. But I don't think it's going to change dramatically. I don't know, though. I don’t want to — I'm giving you a definitive answer on that. But it's just my — it’s a strong impression. Thank you.
仅限 B 股问题
Only Class B questions
沃伦·巴菲特4 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 4?
现场股东我是来自纽约市的迈克·阿塞尔(PH),有个问题想问查理——
AUDIENCE MEMBERMike Assail (PH) from New York City with a question for Charlie —
沃伦·巴菲特好。
WARREN BUFFETTGood.
现场股东——关于他的投资模型。我想知道关于行业整合、纵向整合最有用的模型,以及那些能解释投资零售股在何种特殊情况下有意义的模型——
AUDIENCE MEMBER— about his investment models. I'd like to know the most useful models on industry consolidation, vertical integration, and models which explain the special cases when it makes sense to invest in retailing stocks —
沃伦·巴菲特啊,嗯,我觉得——
WARREN BUFFETTAh, well, I think —
现场股东——以及如果——
AUDIENCE MEMBER— and if —
沃伦·巴菲特——你正在发言,我本不该打断,但我想这个问题更适合放到后面的问答环节。当前我们只讨论 B 股发行事宜。
WARREN BUFFETT— I don't want to interrupt you now, but I think we'll save those to the general question and answer. This is only on the issuance of the Class B right now.
现场股东哦。不好意思,不好意思。
AUDIENCE MEMBEROh. Sorry, sorry.
沃伦·巴菲特不过我们很乐意稍后回答那个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTBut we're glad to have that question later on.
现场股东抱歉。
AUDIENCE MEMBERSorry.
沃伦·巴菲特这样查理也有时间琢磨答案,这是一方面。(笑声和掌声)我们会把所有关于 B 股的问题处理完。然后,我们会就 B 股——即 B 股授权事宜——进行投票。之后,再进入一般问答环节。
WARREN BUFFETTIt'll give Charlie time to figure out the answer for one thing. (Laughter and applause) We'll go through all of the questions regarding the Class B. And, then, we'll have a vote on the class —authorization of the Class B. And, then, we'll get into general questions and answers.
B 股会损害 A 股股东的利益吗?
Do B shares penalize Class A shareholders?
现场股东先生——
AUDIENCE MEMBERSir —
沃伦·巴菲特那边有人——如果 4 区还有人,我们再叫一位——工作人员留意一下。
WARREN BUFFETTSomebody over there — we'll take another one from zone 4 if there's somebody — monitor.
现场股东我是来自康涅狄格州的马克·芬迪迪(音)。我先道个歉。这个问题并非有意冒犯,也绝无任何不敬之意。你认为发行 B 股,在试图保护那些可能被信托——可以这么说——忽悠进来的人的同时,会不会以任何方式损害 A 股股东的利益,无论是在财务上,还是在伯克希尔股东体验的哲学层面上?我不是在搞什么精英主义,因为我不认为你曾宣扬过这一点,伯克希尔也没有。但很明显,这里坐满了人——或者说,多个房间里坐满了人——他们做出了财务上的承诺,以表明他们的理念与你一致。这会不会被削弱?问题的另一部分是,那些信托,按你的描述,听起来不太有吸引力。长期来看,它们会不会因为人们意识到自己并没有买到他们以为的东西而最终失败?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMark Findidi (PH) from Connecticut. I'll apologize ahead. This isn't meant to be an impudent question or — in any way, shape, or form. Do you think that the issuance of the B, in any way, might — in an effort to protect the folks who might be out there suckered in by the trust, if you will — in any way penalizes the A shareholders, either, one — or might penalize them — either, one, financially or, two, philosophically in the BRK experience? I don't mean that in any kind of elitist fashion, because I don't think you've ever propagated that. BRK doesn't propagate that. But clearly, there's a room full of people — or rooms full of people — who have made a commitment financially to show that their philosophy is with you. Does that get diminished? The other part of the question is the trusts, as you portrayed them, didn't sound terribly attractive. In a longer term, would they, perhaps, have ultimately failed as folks realize that they hadn't gotten into what they thought?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,他们可能已经感觉到了。但我认为这种负面影响更可能会落在我们身上,而不是信托的推销者身上——当然,也可能落在推销者身上。但关于信托的失败,我不是指绝对意义上的失败,而是指让投资者失望。我确实认为,如果成千上万甚至几十万人通过一种被推销为“全伯克希尔式”的信托产品进来,某一年他们失望了,我觉得他们很可能会把那种失望同样投射到伯克希尔身上,不亚于投射给那个卖信托的推销者——那时他们可能连推销者都找不到了。刚才的第一个问题,你知道——我不认为——如果我们觉得这会伤害现有股东,我们就根本不会做这件事,不管我们多么讨厌其他正在发生的事情。我们设计这个产品时,就是本着我们认为它不会伤害现有股东的原则。至于新股东的理念是否与现有股东相似——我们试图在人们进来时就把不符合的过滤掉。但我打算在发行结束后,寄出一个小册子,有点像大学新生入学指南、迎新活动,写点“欢迎来到西瓦什大学”之类的,寄给每一个人,新股东和老股东都有,解释我们的理念,就当是公司的入门课程。大概在发行稳定后一个月左右发出去。我看不出有什么理由会——你知道,伯克希尔是经过很长时间才演变成今天这样的。15 年前的股东大会只有 12 个股东。我们似乎一直能吸引和保留同样类型和群体的股东,就是那些真正理解我们业务的人。这和你在其他公司看到的股东群体不同。而且我认为,只要有这个过滤器在发挥作用,随着新人加入,我们能保持住这个状态。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, they might've. But I think the rub off would've been on us rather than the promoters of the trust — might've been on the promoters, too. But in terms of the failure of the trust, I don't mean failure in an absolute sense, but in terms of disappointing their investors. I really think if tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people had come into something that was sold as being an all-Berkshire-type trust, if people came away disappointed in some years, I think they would tend to project that disappointment upon Berkshire fully as much as the promoter who sold the trust, who they might not even be able to find at that time. The first question, you know, this — I don’t think — we wouldn't be doing this if we thought it would hurt present shareholders, we — as much as we might detest something else that was going on. And we designed it so it — we felt that it wouldn't hurt present shareholders. In terms of them having a philosophy — the new shareholders having a philosophy similar to the present ones — we've tried to filter those out coming in. But I intend, after the offering, to send out a booklet, you know, kind of like freshmen at college, you know, orientation, greetings to Siwash U. And we'll send it to everybody, new shareholders and the old shareholders, explaining our philosophy, just as an orientation course on the company. And we'll get that out, probably, in a month or so after the offering settles down. I don’t see any reason that — you know, Berkshire has evolved over a long period of time. We had 12 shareholders at the annual meeting 15 years ago. And it — we seem to be able to retain the same class and group of shareholders, in terms of people who really understand the business. It's a different group than you find at other companies. And I think we can — as long as we've had this filter in effect, operating as new people join us, I think we can keep it. Charlie?
查理·芒格是的。如果发行场面失控,你发行了公司 3% 的新股,那同时也进账十亿多美元。这——这根本不算什么事。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. If the offering went wild and you issued 3 percent of the company, new, you're also taking in a billion-odd dollars. It is a — it's a non-event for us. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特他很容易激动。别跟他说什么刺激他。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTHe's very excitable. Don’t say anything to him. (Laughter)
伯克希尔无法复制过去的收益
Berkshire can't match previous gains
沃伦·巴菲特5 区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 5.
现场股东我是来自犹他州帕克城的埃德·约翰逊。随着你们收到 B 股发行的资金以及产生其他现金,你们在市场里是否看到了机会,能够继续提供我们过去有幸获得的那些回报?
AUDIENCE MEMBEREd Johnson (PH) from Park City, Utah. As you receive the proceeds of the Class B sale and generate other cash, are you seeing opportunities out in the marketplace to continue to provide the kinds of returns that we've been fortunate enough to experience in the past?
沃伦·巴菲特无论有没有 B 股的发行,我们都没有看到什么能维持接近过去平均回报率的事情。我们试图传达过这一点。这从数学上就变得荒谬了。在没有极端通货膨胀的情况下,这个世界的钱不可能以那种速度复利增长。实际增长当然更不可能。所以,就算不发行 B 股,我们也没有看到那样的机会。我们没有在寻找,也不指望能找到过去那种相对于当时资本基础所找到的投资机会。有没有 B 股发行,我们都面临这个问题。而 B 股的发行,甚至没有带来任何微小的改变。我们一直在寻找机会。每当我们发现任何让我们觉得有意义的东西,我们就会去做。更难的是,确保在我们找不到有意义的东西时,我们不会去做。我的意思是,那才是更大的担忧。当我们找到的时候,你知道,机会自然会来。你永远不知道它什么时候会来。我们会遇到一些公司——我在年报里提到过一点——几乎是偶然的——今年我们签了一笔收购合同。经营它的人今天也在这里。这件事的发生是因为我去参加了一个生日派对。你知道,我以后会多参加一些。(笑声)所以,我们的好日子还没有结束。随着时间的推移,我们会找到一些有趣的事情去做。但它们的盈利能力远远无法和过去找到的那些相比,仅仅是因为资本基数太大了。
WARREN BUFFETTWith or without the sale of the B, we don't see things to do that can maintain anything close to the average returns of the past. We've tried to convey that. And it becomes a mathematical absurdity. Money just won't compound at that rate in this world, absent extraordinary inflation. It certainly won't compound in real terms. So, absent the issue of the B, we are not looking at them. We're not seeing things. We're not hoping to find things that match some of the things that we have found in the past, relative to the capital base we've had in the past. But we have that problem with or without the B. And it has not changed in any, even very minor degree, by the issuance of the B. We are looking for things all of the time. Anytime we find anything that makes sense to us, we will do it. The harder part is to make sure that we don't do something when we don't find something that makes sense. I mean, that's the bigger worry. And when we find them, you know, they'll come along. And you never have — you never know when it's going to happen. We run into businesses — I described a little bit of that in the annual report — almost by accident that we've had — contracted to make one purchase this year. The people who run it are here today. And it came about because I was attending a birthday party. And, you know, I'll go to more in the future. (Laughter) So, things have not ended around here. We'll find interesting things to do over time. But they can't remotely be as profitable as the things we've found in the past, simply because of the large capital base.
不预期 B 股交易量暴增
Not expecting volume spike for B shares
沃伦·巴菲特6 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 6?
现场股东你好。我是来自迈阿密的马特·朱克曼。我不知道,我觉得查理和埃夫·德克森是一个级别的。你知道,30 亿美元,我们很快就得开始谈真金白银了。(笑声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. I'm Matt Zuckerman from Miami. I don't know, I think Charlie is the same class as Ev Dirksen. You know, $3 billion, we'll soon be talking about real money. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
现场股东我基本上有两个问题。第一个,就是——第一个问题,提到刚才那位先生说的您的人气,那肯定会影响到股价,您不觉得吗——?第二个问题是,连我妻子的美容师都申购了这只股票,他代表了一大群人的一小部分,这些人大概都在做同样的事,所以这只股票会有巨大的大众需求,而这可能并没有反映在卖方券商从机构那里得到的数字里。第二,共同基金本身,为了给它们的投资组合增添一些派头、魅力或者别的什么,肯定会在这之后抢购伯克希尔的股票。您决定发行多少股份的时候——就是您要发出去的数量——有没有把这些因素都考虑进去?第一,第二,公众对股票的反应,至少在头 14 天里,股价大概会在 1100 美元左右,这会不会不让 B 股涨得足够高,以至于给 A 股价格带来一个非常、非常有趣的飙升?
AUDIENCE MEMBERThe two questions I have, basically, are, one — number one, referring to the gentleman over here before who commented on your popularity, which will definitely affect the stock, don’t you think —? And the second part of that is that even my wife's beautician has put in for some shares of this stock, and he represents a small tip of a large group who are probably doing the same thing on the one hand, so that there's going to be a large popular demand for the stock, which probably is not reflected in the numbers that the selling brokers are getting from institutions. And number two, mutual funds themselves, in order to lend some panache or glamour or whatever to their portfolios will certainly be sucking up Berkshire stock after this. And have you taken all of this into consideration when you decided upon the number of shares to go — that you're sending out, number one? And number two, that the reaction, at least in the first 14 days, of the public to the shares, which will probably be in the range of $1,100, might not send the B shares up high enough to make a very, very interesting spike in the price of the A stock.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我——我们考虑过你谈到的这些。我认为这个发行已经得到了充分的宣传,需求在一两天内就会很大程度上反映在承销商的账簿上。我看不出股价有任何飙升的理由。我的意思是,我们设计它的方式应该能切实防止这种情况。我们——而且我们告诉人们不要指望它。如果有任何机构想买,如果有任何个人想买,他们都有机会这么做。我看不出为什么在发行期之后,会突然涌入一大群之前没听说过的买家。这很有意思。我认为大部分需求将是零售客户和小额持股,而不是那么多的机构。大多数新股发行采用的方式,理念是让需求远远大于供给,从而促使人们,也许,去订购他们甚至不想要的股票,仅仅因为这种限制供应的想法会导致首日大涨,不管你知不知道——你见过雅虎或其他一些发行。我认为——我个人不喜欢那种分配安排,因为你会发现 30% 到 40% 的发行量,也许,会在第一天交易。嗯,我认为——而且,也许,价格会高得多。我认为这种发行方式有点问题,因为公司显然没有获得与人们愿意支付的价格等值的收益。而受惠的客户有机会抛售股票,实际上他们自己得到了过高的承销费,尽管他们被称为购买者,因为他们在第一天就卖掉了。我们会非常关注 B 股头几天相对于发行量的交易量。如果 B 股头几天的交易量,相对于发行规模,哪怕接近大多数新股的交易量,我会失望,也会惊讶。我认为,通过这种分配方式,我们会在寻找真正想持有它、而不是买来抛售的人方面取得更好的成功。但我们会对此进行检验。我们会看看交易量会发生什么。我邀请你看看交易量,把它和我们发行的数量比较一下,然后,再把它和今年其他新股比较一下,看看我们在寻找真正投资者、而不是那些买来准备第二天卖给别人的人方面,做得有多成功。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I — we've considered what you're talking about. I think that the issue has been well enough publicized that the demand will largely be reflected on the books of the underwriter in a day or two. And I see no reason at all for a spike in the stock. I mean, the way we've designed it should really prevent that. We — and we tell people not to expect it. If any institution wants to buy it, if any individual wants to buy it, they're going to have a chance to do it. And I don't see any reason why there should be some huge influx of people immediately subsequent to the offering that didn't hear about it during the offering period. It's interesting. I think most of the demand will be retail and smaller holdings, not so much institutional. The — most new offerings are done in a manner where the idea is to have far more demand than supply, and therefore cause people to, maybe, order stock they didn't even want, and just on the idea that this restricted supply will cause a big jump the first day, whether, you know — you've seen Yahoo or a number of other offerings. I think — I don't personally like that sort of distribution arrangement because you'll find that 30 to 40 percent of the issue will, perhaps, trade the first day. Well, I think — and, perhaps, at a lot higher price. I think there's something a little wrong with that kind of an offering, because the company obviously isn't getting the proceeds that are equivalent to what people are willing to pay. And favored customers get the chance to flip the stock and really are getting paid an exorbitant underwriting fee themselves, even though they're called purchasers, because they sell it the first day. We will be very interested in seeing the volume in the B stock the first couple of days, relative to the amount of the issuance. And I will be disappointed and I'll be surprised if the trading volume in the B stock the first couple days, related to whatever the size of the issue is, turns out to be anywhere near as high as with most new issues. I think that we will have a better success in finding people who really want to own it and who did not buy it to flip it, I think, by this method of distribution. But we'll have a test of that. We will see what happens in trading volume. And I invite you to look at the volume and compare it to the amount we issue and, then, look at that relative to other new issues this year and just see how successful we were in finding real investors rather than people who were buying it to sell it to somebody else the next day.
巴菲特的知名度与安全顾虑
Buffett's visibility and safety concerns
沃伦·巴菲特让我看看,那是 6 区吗?我想我们去 1 区。(长停顿)查理·芒格(轻声对巴菲特说):也许我们可以投票决定。沃伦·巴菲特(轻声对芒格说):是啊,但我不想打断——
WARREN BUFFETTLet’s see, was that zone 6? I guess we go to zone 1. (Long pause) CHARLIE MUNGER (quietly to Buffett): Maybe we can vote. WARREN BUFFETT (quietly to Munger): Yeah, but I don’t want to cut off —
现场人士呃——
VOICEUh —
沃伦·巴菲特查理说也许我们可以投票,但我确实——我希望人们有机会提问——(掌声)你们这样只会鼓励他。(笑声)我想确保大家的问题都能得到解答。我不想把时间拖得太久——如果你觉得你的问题已经被前面的问题回答了 95%,我希望你跳过它。但我们确实希望有疑问的人能得到解答,因为从评论和我收到的信件来看,有些人确实有切实的担忧。请讲?
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie says maybe we can vote, but I do — I want people to have their questions — (Applause) It just encourages him when you do that. (Laughter) I want to be sure people get their questions answered on this. I don’t want to prolong it beyond — If you feel your question has been 95 percent answered by an earlier question, I hope you'll skip asking it. But we do want to have people that have questions about it answered, because I can tell by commentary and letters I've received that some people have genuine concerns. Yes?
现场股东我的担忧——哦,我叫简·安格林。我来自南印第安纳州。这是我第一次参加伯克希尔股东大会。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy concern — oh, my name is Jan Anglin (PH). I'm from Southern Indiana. And this is my first Berkshire meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特好的。
WARREN BUFFETTGood.
现场股东我确实对 B 股有一个担忧,这不太关乎业务,更多是——我想是关于您和芒格先生的人身安全。我经常在报纸上看到您的照片。我当然不介意在财经杂志上看到它,但现在,有点,怎么说,泛滥了。我不喜欢您这么高调。(笑声)这让我很烦恼。我是说,您明白我的意思吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERI did have a concern about the B shares that's less business and more — I guess it would be concerned with your and Mr. Munger's personal safety. I often see your picture in the newspaper. And I certainly don't mind seeing it on financial magazines, but now, it's kind of, like, proliferating. I don't like the idea that you are so visible. (Laughter) That bothers me. It’s — I mean, do you understand what I'm saying?
沃伦·巴菲特不。我完全明白。
WARREN BUFFETTNo. I understand exactly.
现场股东这不是——
AUDIENCE MEMBERThis isn’t —
沃伦·巴菲特我也想过这个问题。(笑声)我感谢你的关心,我——但答案是别无选择,我的意思是,如果——
WARREN BUFFETTIt's occurred to me. (Laughter) I appreciate that, and I — but the answer is there's no other way, I mean, if —
现场股东好的。
AUDIENCE MEMBEROK.
沃伦·巴菲特——随着时间的推移——
WARREN BUFFETT— over time
现场股东但是能——
AUDIENCE MEMBERBut can —
沃伦·巴菲特——就事情的发展而言。而且——
WARREN BUFFETT— in terms of what happens. And —
现场股东那么——
AUDIENCE MEMBERSo —
沃伦·巴菲特——随着它的成长,你基本上会变得更显眼。
WARREN BUFFETT— as it grows, you get more visible, basically.
现场股东哦,我知道。但伴随着 B 股这些事,您能不能,怎么说,少拍点照片,多留点金句?(笑声)
AUDIENCE MEMBEROh, I know. But along with the B shares and things, can you, kind of, like, be quotable but less available for photos? (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我通常都是这样的。我——如果你注意到了,就采访或类似的事情而言,我是不做的。所有的新闻节目都邀请过我。我基本上都不去。坦率地说,对于股东们,我对这个群体感觉不同。我很高兴看到大家来这里。我喜欢和股东们聚在一起。(掌声)我认为切实的保护是,如果我们做了什么导致股价暴涨然后又暴跌的事,我可能就得更加小心一点了。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I normally am. I — if you've noticed, in terms of interviews or anything of the sort, I do not do them. I've been invited to go on all of the news shows. And I, basically, don't do it. Frankly, with the shareholders, I feel differently about this group. I'm delighted to see everybody come here. And I enjoy getting together with the shareholders. (Applause) I think the real protection is, if we'd done something that had caused the stock to balloon way up and then come way down, I might have had to be a little more careful. (Laughter)
查理·芒格我觉得她的主意非常好。看了那场表演之后——(笑声)我想从此以后,也许你应该做米老鼠的配音。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI think she has a very good idea. Having seen that acting — (Laughter) I think hereafter, maybe you should be the voice of Mickey Mouse. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我非常感谢大家的关心。这在很大程度上是不可避免的。尽管,查理可能觉得我没有被推去干那些表演的活。
WARREN BUFFETTI do appreciate the sentiment out of everybody. And there is a — it is unavoidable, to a fair degree. Although, Charlie may have thought I wasn't pushed into those acting jobs.
A 类股“永久”可转换为 B 类股
Class A "forever" convertible to Class B
沃伦·巴菲特2 区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 2.
现场股东我是来自内布拉斯加州奥马哈的乔·格里尔。(笑声)关于转换特权,从 A 类股转换成 B 类股有时间限制吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERThis Joe Greer (PH) from Omaha, Nebraska of all places. (Laughter) Regarding the conversion privilege, is there a time limit on the converting from the A to a B?
沃伦·巴菲特没有。这是个好问题——很高兴你问这个。发行后的头五天左右——工作日——不能转换。但之后,你就能一直转换,直到最终日。从 A 类转 B 类是永久可转换的,但从 B 类转 A 类不行。所以,除非你有理由,否则不需要转换。而且,正如我指出的,转换有一个非常微小的劣势。在没有需要之前,我是不会转换的。
WARREN BUFFETTNo. That's a good — I'm glad you asked that question. The first five days or so after issuance — business days — there's no conversion. But after that, you'll be able to convert until judgment day. It's forever convertible from A to B. But it's not convertible from B to A. So there's no need to convert it until you have a reason to do so. It — and as I've pointed out, there's a very slight disadvantage in converting. And I wouldn't — until I had a need, I would not convert it.
如何将 A 类股转换为 B 类股
How to convert Class A shares to B
沃伦·巴菲特3 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?
现场股东来自华盛顿州雷德蒙德的斯科特·道林。跟这个问题有点相关,作为 A 类股股东,我只能看到两个理由把 A 类股转换成 B 类股,其中之一是出于赠与的原因。关于这个,如何将 A 类股转换成 B 类股?
AUDIENCE MEMBERScott Dowling from Redmond, Washington. Kind of related to this question, as an A shareholder, I can only see really two reasons to convert A shares into B shares, one of them being gifting reasons. In regard to that, how does one convert A shares into B?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。那个——嗯,委托书里有关于如何操作的说明——我想年报里也有,描述了具体做法。但基本上,你联系波士顿银行来操作,然后按步骤进行。或者如果你的股票在券商那里,你可以指示你的券商来做。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. That — yeah, there are instructions on that in the proxy statement as to how that — I guess it's in the annual report, too, that it describes how to do it. But, basically, you get in touch with the Bank of Boston to do that and proceed from there. Or if you have your shares with a broker, you would instruct your broker to do it.
B 股定价旨在抑制不切实际的预期
Class B price meant to discourage unreasonable expectations
沃伦·巴菲特4 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 4?
现场股东早上好。我是来自旧金山的露丝·奥韦德斯。我想知道,您是怎么决定 B 股的比例是 30 比 1,而不是 300 比 1 或者介于两者之间的某个数字?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning. I'm Ruth Owades from San Francisco. I wondered, how did you decide that the ratio of the Bs should be 30-to-1 instead of 300-to-1 or something in between?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们希望它大致——至少在最初,交易价格在 1000 美元左右。我们认为,不太可能有人觉得在商业上可行,去设立一个面值远低于此的信托产品。所以,这是我们觉得必须降到的最低水平。我们不想以任何方式发出信号,比如什么最后机会或者类似的东西,让人们可以用非常低的金额参与进来,这些人只是幻想能把 100 美元变成 10 万美元之类的。我收到一些人的来信,他们总觉得这事能做到。其实做不到。我们不想在潜意识里或以任何其他方式吸引那些怀着这种希望的人。我同情他们。但我们没有答案。所以,我们把价格降到与单位信托相匹配的水平。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We wanted to have something that was roughly — would trade, initially, at least, in the thousand-dollar range. We thought it very unlikely that anyone would find it commercially feasible to set up a trust that offered units that were denominated much below that. So, that's as low as we felt we had to go. And we did not want to signal, in any way, that, you know, some sort of last chance, or something like that, to get in for some very low sum for people that, you know, just had some wishes that they could turn a hundred dollars into 100,000 or something. I get letters from people that, you know, think that somehow that can be done. It can't be done. And we don't want to appeal subliminally or any other way to people who harbor those hopes. I'm sympathetic with them. But we don't have the answer to that. So, we went down to the level to match the unit trusts.
B 股会增加账面价值,但不会增加内在价值
B shares will increase book value, but not intrinsic value
沃伦·巴菲特5 区?我们尽量——我们尽量很快结束关于 B 类股的问题。但我不希望任何人觉得他们对此有疑问——却不让他们有机会提问。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 5? We'll try and do — we'll try to end the questions on the B fairly soon. But I don't want anybody that feels that they've got a — got some reservations about this — not to have a shot at asking their question.
现场股东我叫鲍勃·麦克卢尔,住在新加坡。照我算来,B 股按可能的发行价出售,会立刻提升伯克希尔·哈撒韦的账面价值。所以对我来说,发行越多越好。请问您对此怎么看?会计处理会怎样影响伯克希尔的账面价值?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Bob McClure (PH). I live in Singapore. And the way I figure it, the sale of the B shares at the price they will probably be sold, will give an immediate boost to the book value of Berkshire Hathaway. So, as far as I'm concerned, the more the merrier. Can you give us your thinking on that, the accounting treatment, how this will affect the book value of Berkshire?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,任何出售——我们以每股 A 股约 33000 美元或相近价格出售的股票,按目前股价算,都会提高每股账面价值。但这并不意味着每股内在价值也提高了。我在年报里多次说过,我们只是用账面价值作为追踪内在价值变动的代理指标。但它远不能代表每股内在价值。关键不是它对每股账面价值有什么影响,而是它对每股内在价值有什么影响。而且,你知道,我们相信内在价值远远高于账面价值。我们不会扫大家的兴,报个具体数字——(笑声)——但我们并不把提高每股账面价值看作决定是否发行股票的依据。不过从数学上看,那会是必然结果。关键还是看与内在价值的关系。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, any sell — shares we sell at the equivalent per A share of in the range of 33,000 or thereabouts, where the stock is selling now, will increase the book value per share. But that does not mean it increases the intrinsic value per share. I've said many times in the report, we use book value as a proxy in tracking movement of intrinsic value. But it does not represent anything like intrinsic value per share. And the key is not what it does to book value per share, but what it does to intrinsic value per share. And, you know, we believe the intrinsic value is materially higher than the book value. We don't spoil your fun by ever giving you a number. But — (laughter) — we do not regard the fact that it increases the book value per share as being any kind of a determinant in deciding to issue the shares. But it will have that consequence mathematically. The key is the relation to intrinsic value.
“我们做的事,事实都摆在那里”
"The facts are out on what we do"
沃伦·巴菲特6 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 6?
现场人士这边好像有人提问。
VOICEI think there was a question over here.
沃伦·巴菲特6 区有问题吗?
WARREN BUFFETTAny questions in six?
现场人士在你后面。
VOICEBehind you.
现场股东您面临的情况似乎是,您吸引了不少潜在股东,但他们缺乏估算内在价值的方法,或者对伯克希尔未来前景应该如何预期缺乏概念。那么,除了您给出的一般性指引——即由于资产规模太大,内在价值无法再像过去那样以高速率复利增长,以及您并不认为股票被低估了——之外,您对他们应该怎么做有什么建议吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERYour problem seems to be that you’ve attracted a fair number of potential shareholders that don't have a way of estimating intrinsic value or developing expectations about what Berkshire's future prospects are. Now, do you have any suggestions about how they might do that, short of the general guidance that you can't continue to compound your intrinsic value at the same high rate that you have in the past because of your asset base, and that you don't believe the share is undervalued?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。嗯,我们可能会在后面的开放式问答环节再进一步谈谈我们各项业务,不过,我们目前的做法就是尽量以概括但全面的方式,向你们提供查理和我认为重要的所有业务信息,如果双方角色互换,我们也希望获得这些信息。我可以向你们保证,如果查理和我对我们业务的了解,仅限于我们已经公开披露的那些,这并不会改变我们原本基于深入参与业务而做出的判断。我们所做的事实都已公开。因此,只要你们关注过我们这类业务,并且了解行业状况等等,你们就和我们处在同样的信息位置上。我们会继续这样做。我们从本质上把你们视为合伙人。我们会告诉你们——我们尽量告诉你们,如果是你们在经营这家公司,作为合伙人我们想知道什么。我们会继续这样做。我们不会给一个具体数值,因为我们自己也不知道具体数值是什么。我们心里有一个范围。随着时间的推移,事情会改变这个范围。而且如果我们试图公布这个范围,很可能会惹来一大堆麻烦。查理和我也得不出完全一致的范围,但会很接近。我们稍后再多谈谈这个话题。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, we'll probably talk more in the general question and answer period about our various businesses, but we simply try to give you all of the information about our businesses in a large, general way that Charlie and I consider important and that we would want if our positions were reversed. I can assure you that if all Charlie and I knew about our businesses, what we've publicly disclosed, it would not change our estimates from what they might be from being intimately involved with the businesses. The facts are out regarding what we do. So, you are in the same position to the extent that you have followed our kind of businesses and understand industry conditions and all of that. And we'll continue to do that. We essentially regard you as our partners. And we tell — we try to tell you exactly what we, as partners, would want to know if you were running the place. And we'll continue to do that. We won't tell you a number because we don't know the number. We have a range in our mind. Things change that range over time. And we'd probably get in all kinds of trouble if we tried to put out that range. And Charlie and I would not come up with exactly the same range. But they'd be pretty close. We'll talk more about that a little later.
股东批准发行 B 类股
Shareholders approve Class B shares
沃伦·巴菲特现在另一个房间的 7 区和 8 区有问题要问。我们先请 7 区,请讲。
WARREN BUFFETTWe do have questions now from zone 7 and 8 in the other room. So, we'll take on zone 7, please.
现场人士估计我们 7 区的问题你们已经回答过了。
VOICEI guess you've answered our questions in seven.
沃伦·巴菲特哦,7 区解决了。8 区呢?
WARREN BUFFETTOh, took care of zone 7. How about zone 8?
现场人士8 区没问题。
VOICENo questions from zone 8.
沃伦·巴菲特哦,好的。(掌声)我想,此刻我们可以先进行投票,之后再进入一般性问答环节。之后,如果你们在一般性问答期间又想到一两个问题,我很乐意——我们会很乐意在那时一并处理。那么,现在进入这个环节:有没有人提议采纳董事会的建议?
WARREN BUFFETTOh, OK. (Applause) I think, at this point, we can move on to general questions after we have this vote. And then, if you have another question or two that comes up during the general question and answer period, I’ll be glad to — we'll be glad to work those in at that time. So, we are now at the point: is there a motion to adopt the board of directors’ recommendation?
小沃尔特·斯科特我提议通过公司本次股东大会委托声明书附件 A 中所载的,对重述公司章程第四条的修正案。
WALTER SCOTT JR.I move the adoption of the amendment to the fourth article of the restated certificate of incorporation that's set forth in exhibit A of the company's proxy statement for this meeting.
现场人士我附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特关于通过公司章程拟议修正案的动议已提出并获附议。这上面写着,“是否进行讨论?”但我不打算这么问。我们准备好对这项动议采取行动。如果有哪些股东是亲自到场投票的,现在请在公司章程拟议修正案的选票上做好标记,并将选票交给选举监察员。也请代理投票人将拟议修正案的选票提交给选举监察员,按照他们所收到的指示进行代理投票。菲茨西蒙斯先生,您准备好之后,就可以宣读报告了。
WARREN BUFFETTThe motion has been made and seconded to adopt the proposed amendment to the certificate of incorporation. It says here, “Is there any discussion?” but I'm not going to say that. We are ready to act upon the motion. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballot on the proposed amendment to the certificate of incorporation and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Would the proxy holders please also submit to the inspector of elections a ballot on the proposed amendment, voting the proxies in accordance with the instructions they have received? Mr. Fitzsimmons, when you're ready, you may give your report.
罗伯特·M·菲茨西蒙斯我的报告已准备好。截至上周五收到的代理投票人选票,对拟议修正案投了不少于 970,495 票赞成票。这个数字远超全部流通股所要求的多数。特拉华州法律所要求的关于精确票数统计的证明,包括本次会议亲自投票的票数,将交给秘书,与本次会议记录一同存档。
ROBERT M. FITZSIMMONSMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders received through last Friday cast not less than 970,495 votes in favor of the proposed amendment. That number far exceeds the majority of the number of all shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law regarding the precise count of the votes, including the votes cast in person at this meeting, will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,菲茨西蒙斯先生。本次会议委托书附件 A 中所列的公司章程修正案获得通过。商务会议休会后,我会回答你们提出的与伯克希尔业务相关但无需本次会议采取行动的问题。休会前还有没有人要提出其他事项?如果没有,我请小沃尔特·斯科特先生向会议提出动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Fitzsimmons. The amendment to the certificate of incorporation, as set forth in exhibit A to the proxy statement for this meeting, is approved. After adjournment of the business meeting, I will respond to questions that you may have that relate to the business Berkshire but do not call for any action at this meeting. Anyone have any further business to come before this meeting before we adjourn? If not, I recognize Mr. Walter Scott Jr. to place a motion before the meeting.
小沃尔特·斯科特我提议本次会议休会。
WALTER SCOTT JR.I move this meeting be adjourned.
声音我附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特休会动议已经提出并得到附议。我们将进行口头表决。有无讨论?如果没有,赞成者请说“赞成”。
WARREN BUFFETTThe motion to adjourn has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Is there any discussion? If not, all in favor say, "Aye."
众人赞成。
VOICESAye.
沃伦·巴菲特反对者请说“反对”。会议休会。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTAll opposed say, "No." The meeting's adjourned. (Applause)
伯克希尔的价值高于分拆价值
Berkshire is more than its breakup value
沃伦·巴菲特现在进入一般性问题环节。我们还是按同样的区域系统来。我之前说过,你们任何人随时可以离开。我们中午正式休息,大约 15 分钟后重新开始,等你们都有机会买个三明治——(笑声)。其他房间的人可以进来。然后我们会一直持续到下午 3 点左右。那么,从 1 区开始。
WARREN BUFFETTNow we'll to move to a — to general questions. And we'll do it by the same zone system. As I said earlier, any of you are free, obviously, to leave at any time. We will break formally at noon and reconvene about 15 minutes later, after you've all had a chance to buy a sandwich, and you can — (Laughter). Those in the other rooms can come in here. And we will go from then until about 3 o'clock. So, we'll start in with zone 1.
现场股东我是芝加哥的威尔·杰克斯。今天算是代表本杰明·格雷厄姆,问一个他可能问的问题。您刚才谈到了你们股票的价值——我们说说 A 股吧,因为 B 股和 A 股挂钩。但——我知道不能指望完整回答——不过大体上,您会怎样给 A 股估值?
AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm Will Jacks (PH) from Chicago. I'm sort of representing Benjamin Graham today, the question he might ask. You talked earlier about how you — about the value of your shares, the A shares, let's say, because the B is tied to the A. But — and I know it — I don't expect a complete answer, but generally, how would you go about placing a value on the A shares?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。这显然是个关键问题。正如我说过的,我们努力提供信息。但过去有人在估值伯克希尔时犯过错误——而且长期以来一直犯这个错误,包括许多评论员,也包括一些机构——就是把伯克希尔仅仅看作我们旗下业务的清算价值。我的意思是,你可以——你也可以用同样的方法看通用电气,那是杰克·韦尔奇经营得极其出色的公司。但我认为,看待通用电气这样的企业,不应去想如果今天卖掉每个部门、交完税、然后分配收益会怎样。而很多人看伯克希尔时往往就是这样,用一种静态的眼光来看。但这并不是查理和我长期以来的看法。伯克希尔确实更容易让人做这种分析,因为我们在有价证券上投了很多钱。但我们在其他方面也有很多钱。而伯克希尔的问题,也是任何企业内在价值估值的问题,当然是未来多年——事实上是未来所有年份——的现金流,以合适的利率折现。我以前在年报里讲过这个。伯克希尔是一堆企业的集合。有些我们全资拥有,有些我们部分持有。其中一些企业具有非常有趣的动力机制。比如我们保险业务的价值——如果你回到 26 年前——那是多久?大概 28 年前吧,自从我们——我猜是 29 年前——从杰克·林沃特手里买下它。我记得花了 870 万美元,杰克控制的两家公司是 840 万还是 870 万。如果你当时有先见之明——我没有——但如果你当时有先见之明,能看出那个保险业务会发展成什么样,你就会得出结论:它们对我们的价值,将远远、远远大于当时账面上所反映的价值。它们是拥有巨大潜力的业务的一部分。而这很可能就是伯克希尔发展出来的最重要的资产。但现在,我们有超过 70 亿——正好 70 亿——超过 70 亿的浮存金,来自我们的保险业务。我们在 25 或 30 年前无法预见这一点。但如果认为那项业务的账面价值就代表它长期对我们的实际价值,那将是一个大错——只要经营得当。而这种情况今天很可能依然如此。所以,伯克希尔是一群总体上非常优秀的企业,我们希望继续增加它们。内在价值会受到我们资本配置工作质量的影响,会受到我们旗下企业经理人经营工作的影响,也会受到一些我们现在无法预见、或许也无法控制的因素的影响。但它基本上不是由我们把每个业务单独卖掉并缴税后能拿到多少钱来衡量的。我们从来不是那样经营的。我们的经营方式让我们能以极低成本使用大量资本。递延所得税加上保险浮存金,我们负债端大约有 120 亿美元左右,我们预计成本会非常低。这虽然不显示在资产端,但它可能非常有价值。查理,你想说点什么吗?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, that's obviously a key question. As I've said, we try to give you the information. But I think people, to the extent they've made a mistake in the past in valuing Berkshire — and they have made this mistake over time, including many commentators, including some institutions — is to look at it as simply a breakup value to our businesses. I mean, you know, you can — you could do the same with General Electric, we — a magnificently run operation by Jack Welch. But I don't think the way you should look at a business like General Electric is to think about what would happen if they sold each division today, paid the taxes, and then distributed the proceeds. And that has tended to be the case with many people looking at Berkshire, looking at it on a static basis. And that is not the way that Charlie and I have looked at it over time. It lends itself a little more to that kind of analysis because we have a lot of money in marketable securities. But we have a lot of money in other things, too. And the question of Berkshire, in valuing the intrinsic of any business, of course, is what is going to be the stream of cash over many years in the future — in fact, all of the years in the future, discounted back at an appropriate interest rate. I've talked about that in the past in the annual report. Berkshire is a collection of businesses. And some of which we own in their entirety, some of which we own part of. And some of those businesses have very interesting dynamics to them. And they — the value of our insurance business, for example, if you go back 26 — what was it? Twenty-eight years or so since we — 29, I guess — since we bought it from Jack Ringwalt. We paid 8.7 million, I believe, 8.4 — 8.7 million for two companies that Jack controlled. If you had the foresight at that time to — and I didn't, but — if you had the foresight at that time to see what that would develop out of that insurance business, you would've come to the conclusion that their value to us was going to be far, far greater than the value at which they were then carried on our balance sheet. They were part of a business which had enormous potential. And that's been, probably, the most significant asset that's been developed at Berkshire. But right now, we have over seven — right at 7 billion — over 7 billion — of float that's been developed from our insurance business. We couldn't foresee that 25 or 30 years ago. But it would've been a big mistake to think in terms of the book value of that business being representative of its actual value to us over time, if it was run right. And that situation probably prevails today. So, it’s a — Berkshire is a group of, on balance, very fine businesses to which we hope to add. The intrinsic value will be affected by the job we do in allocating capital. It'll be affected by the job our managers do in running their businesses. It'll be affected by some items that we don't foresee now and, perhaps, have no control over. But it is not measured, essentially, by what we could sell each separate business for and pay the tax on now. We haven't run it that way. We've run it so that we get the use of a lot of capital at very low cost. Between deferred taxes and our insurance float, we have some 12 billion or so on the liability side that we think will be a very low cost. And that’s — doesn't show as an asset, but it can be quite valuable. Charlie, you want to —?
查理·芒格没有。我觉得没什么好补充的了。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo. I don't think I've got anything to add to that.
沃伦·巴菲特哦。我可正准备把它写下来呢。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTOh. I was all set to write it down, too. (Laughter)
在看似高股价时回购
Buybacks at what appear to be high stock prices
沃伦·巴菲特请第二区提问。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 2, please.
现场股东巴菲特先生,芒格先生,我是来自密西西比州杰克逊的蒂姆·梅德利。我的问题是关于资本配置的。您提到过,您欣赏公司的一个特点就是管理层愿意回购自己的股票。我想请您谈一谈,当当前股价相对于内在价值显得过高时,您自己对于回购的参考框架。有些人说,对于合适的公司,应该持续进行股票回购,无论价格如何。那么,能否请您谈一谈,当当前股价相对于内在价值显得过高时,您认为回购如何才算划算?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, I'm Tim Medley from Jackson, Mississippi. My question is an allocation of capital one. You've indicated that one thing you like in companies is a willingness on the part of management to repurchase its own shares. I wonder if you would talk for a minute about your own frame of reference on repurchases when it appears that the current price of the stock is rich in relation to its intrinsic value. And some have said that, with the right company, ongoing repurchases of stock should be made, irrespective of the price. So, would you speak for a moment, as to how you think it pencils out when the current price of the stock is rich in relation to its intrinsic value?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。如果你以高于合理计算的内在价值的价格回购股票,你就在伤害你的股东,就像你以低于该价格发行股票会伤害股东一样。这是不证自明的道理。当然,其中困难的部分是如何得出内在价值。举个例子——可口可乐可能是个好例子。我想很多人可能认为可口可乐在非常高的价格回购股票,因为他们会看账面价值或市盈率。但内在价值远不止账面价值和市盈率。如果有人给你任何简化公式来计算它,忘掉它。你必须理解这家企业。那些理解这家企业的人——管理层——多年来一直理解并非常坦诚地表示,通过回购股票,他们为剩余股东增加了每股价值。就像我说的,那些不理解可口可乐,或者认为机械估值方法可以——应该优先的人,确实误判了那些回购对可口可乐公司的价值。所以我们赞成——当你拥有一家优秀的企业时——我们赞成把这家企业产生的资金用于让企业变得更优秀。我们赞成在股票低于内在价值时回购。我想说,如果是一家极为优秀的企业,我们得出的内在价值可能比大多数人要高。我们非常尊重——查理和我,我想这是多年培养出来的——我们对一家极为杰出的企业的力量抱有极大的尊重。我们也认识到它们有多么稀缺。如果管理层希望通过回购来进一步加强我们的所有权,我们拍手叫好。我们拥有——我们刚刚超过可口可乐公司 8% 的股份,大概是在过去三个多月里,增长了一丁点。但我们有过一次二次购买。但我们在可口可乐公司的持股比例,通过他们的回购已经显著上升了。我们受益了,因为他们买回了那些在有些人看来价格可能很高的股票。我们当时认为那些人错了,而现在的事实表明或证明了这一点。所以,我敦促你,如果你在判断回购或发行股票的明智与否时,不要用账面价值来思考。不要用特定的市盈率来思考。不要用任何小模型来思考。而是思考这一点:首先,选择你能够理解的企业,然后,思考你愿意为拥有这些企业付出多少钱。这才是长期重要的——回购是否是以低于那个数字的折扣进行的。我想说,在我们持股的公司里——我们在 GEICO 的股权,在 15 年左右的时间里,从大约 33% 增加到了 50%,纯粹是通过回购。而且我们受益匪浅。我补充一句,每个留在公司的股东也都受益匪浅。我们的受益程度和他们完全不成比例。但那是他们非常明智的行动。那里也一样,他们通常都是在至少两倍于账面价值的价格买入股票。你可以拿它跟其他保险股比较,然后说:“嗯,那太贵了。”但 GEICO 不是一家可以和其他保险公司相提并论的保险公司。它是一种非常不同的生意。在我看来,他们采取那种行动路线是非常明智的。查理?不说了?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. If you're repurchasing shares above a rationally calculated intrinsic value, you are harming your shareholders, just as if you issue shares beneath that figure, you are harming your shareholders. That's a truism. Now, the tough part of that, of course, is coming up with the intrinsic value. And, for example — a good example might be Coca-Cola. I think a number of people might have thought Coca-Cola was repurchasing shares at a very high price, because they'll look at book value or P/E ratios. But there's a lot more to intrinsic value than book value and P/E ratios. And anytime anybody gives you some simplified formula for figuring it out, forget it. You have to understand the business. The people who understood that business well, the management, have understood and been very forthright about saying so over the years, that by repurchasing their shares, they are adding to the value per share for remaining shareholders. And like I say, people who didn't understand Coca-Cola, or who thought mechanistic methods of valuation could — should take precedence, really misjudged the value to the Coca-Cola Company of those repurchases. So we favor — when you have a wonderful business — we favor using funds that are generated out of that business to make the business even more wonderful. And we favor repurchasing shares if those shares are below intrinsic value. And I would say that if it's a really wonderful business, we probably come up with higher intrinsic values than most people do. We have great respect, Charlie and I with — I think it's developed over the years — we have enormous respect for the power of a really outstanding business. And we recognize how scarce they are. And if a management wishes to further intensify our ownership by repurchasing shares, we applaud. We own — we just went over 8 percent of the Coca-Cola Company, probably, in the last three or so months, by a very tiny fraction. But we had a second purchase one time. But our percentage interest in the Coca-Cola Company has gone up significantly through their repurchases. And we are better off because they have bought those shares at what looked like, to some people, perhaps, high prices. And we thought they were wrong at the time, and I think now it's been indicated or proven. So, I urge you, if you're trying to decide on the wisdom of repurchases, or of share issuances, that you don't think in terms of book value. You don't think in terms of specific P/Es. You don't think in terms of any little model. But you think in terms of what would you really, A, pick businesses you can understand and, then, think what you really would pay to be in those businesses. And that's what counts over time, is whether the repurchases are made at a discount from that figure. And I would say with the companies that we own shares in, we — our interest in GEICO went from 33 or so percent to 50 percent over a 15-year or so period, simply through repurchases. And we benefitted significantly. So, did every other shareholder, I might add, that stayed with the company. And we benefited in no way disproportionate to them. But that was a very wise action on their part. And there too, they were all — usually buying that stock at at least double book value. And you could compare it to other insurance stocks and say, "Well, that's too much to pay." But GEICO wasn't an insurance company that was comparable to other insurance companies. It was a very different sort of business. And they were very wise, in my view, to be following that course of action. Charlie? No?
B 股不会稀释 A 股价值
B shares won't dilute value of A shares
沃伦·巴菲特第三区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?
声音那就是你。
VOICEThat’s you.
现场股东哦,抱歉。我是来自圣地亚哥的伊莱恩·科恩。我有点困惑,B 股上市后如果只有 A 股的三十分之一,它会怎么变动?它们会永远保持在 A 股的三十分之一吗?如果是这样,会不会稀释 A 股的收益?您能解释一下吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBEROh, sorry. I'm Elaine Cohen (PH) from San Diego. I'm a little confused about how the B shares are going to be moving if they're at 1/30th of the A shares when they get out on the market. Are they always going to be 1/30th of the A shares? And if they are, is that going to dilute the earnings of the A shares? Could you just explain that?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。只要我们将产生的资金合理有效地运用,就不会稀释 A 股的收益或价值。正如我之前提到的,如果最终是 1%,你对其他所有东西的所有权就会减少 1%——另一方面,你会多出将近 4 亿美元的现金。所以,不会——在我们看来,这不会稀释 A 股的价值。我预计,随着时间的推移,B 股在绝大多数时候都会非常接近三十分之一的价格交易。但它可以低于这个比例的价格出售。它不能以显著高于这个比例的价格出售,否则套利会吃掉任何微小的溢价。我想这样就解释清楚了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It won't dilute the earnings or value of the A shares as long as we use the money reasonably effectively that is produced. As I mentioned earlier, if it happens to be 1 percent, you'll own 1 percent less of all these other things — on the other hand, will have close to $400 million more of cash. So, it will not — in our view, it will not dilute the value of the A. I expect, over time, that the B, a very large percentage of the time, will be selling very close to a 30th. But it could sell for less than that ratio. It can't sell for any significant amount more than that ratio, or arbitrage will eat away at any slight premium. I think that takes care of that.
富国银行没有“秘密公式”
No "secret formulas" for Wells Fargo
沃伦·巴菲特第四区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 4.
现场股东巴菲特先生,我叫休·斯蒂芬森。我是来自佐治亚州亚特兰大的股东。我的问题涉及公司对富国银行的持股。如您所知,富国银行和大多数银行一样,拥有非常昂贵的分行系统用于吸收存款和服务客户。我猜您也知道,他们还更多地进入了超市分行和网上银行业务,这似乎有潜力相对于分行系统大幅降低成本。您能否评论一下这会如何发展,以及它可能有多重要?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, my name is Hugh Stephenson. I'm a shareholder from Atlanta, Georgia. My question involves the company's interest in Wells Fargo. As you know, Wells Fargo, like most banks, has a very expensive branch system for deposit-gathering and servicing their customers. As I guess you know, they also have moved more into branches in supermarkets and in online banking that seems to have the potential to very significantly reduce their costs, relative to the branch system. Would you comment on how you think that might play out and how significant it might be?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个问题——你说得对。富国银行在进驻超市方面一直是先行者。他们用了几种不同的模式。而且他们在网上银行服务方面显然也走在前列。可惜的是,银行业嘛,你知道,很难有什么独家秘方。可口可乐有 7X 配方藏在当年的佐治亚信托公司、也就是现在的太阳信托银行的保险库里。但在银行业,你做的任何事,竞争对手都能复制。尽管如此,还是有优势的。有时候,抢先一步、对不同的分销渠道了解得更深,能带来相当显著的优势。我认为富国银行在这方面做得非常出色。我觉得他们有一些优势。但这些优势并非别人无法模仿和蚕食。但管理团队很好。他们在抓住超市这个特定趋势上做得非常好。正因如此,他们有可能拥有相对低成本的吸储业务。世界上其他每一家银行都会盯着看,关注这个模式怎么运作,不仅看富国银行,也看别的银行,琢磨自己能不能复制。查理?好。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the question — you're right. Wells Fargo has been a leader in moving into supermarkets. They've got a couple different formats they've used. And they've been a — they’ve certainly been a leader in the online banking services. Unfortunately, in banking, you know, it's a little hard to have any secret formulas. Coca-Cola has 7X down there in the vaults of the, what used to be the Trust Company of Georgia, now SunTrust. But in the banking business, anything you do, your competitors can copy. Nevertheless, there’s a — there is an advantage. And sometimes it can be a quite — a significant advantage in being first and learning more about different distribution methods. And I think Wells Fargo has done a terrific job in learning that. I think they've got some advantages. They — but they aren't advantages that other people can't work at copying and chipping away at. But it's a good management. They've done a very good job of seizing on that particular trend in supermarkets. And as such, they are — they have the potential, perhaps, for having a relatively low-cost deposit-gathering operation. And every other bank in the world will be looking, noticing how that works, not only there but at other banks, to figure out whether they can copy it. Charlie? OK.
GEICO 因完全归伯克希尔所有而受益
GEICO benefits from being entirely owned by Berkshire
沃伦·巴菲特第五区域。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 5.
现场股东我叫艾伦·帕尔索,来自奥马哈。自 1967 年以来,伯克希尔的保险浮存金年增长率超过了 20%。针对 GEICO,它的浮存金历史增长率是多少?这会对伯克希尔整体保险浮存金的增长率产生什么影响?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name's Alan Parsow from Omaha. Berkshire has increased the rate of growth in its insurance float in excess of 20 percent a year since 1967. In regards to GEICO, its rate of growth, what is its historic rate of growth been in its insurance float? And what impact will it have on the rate of growth in the overall Berkshire insurance float?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我要说,GEICO 对伯克希尔是一个巨大的加分项。我们之前就持有它 50% 的股份。我的意思是,自 1976 年以来,我们早已从 GEICO 的投资中获得了巨大收益。所以,这并不完全是如今才有的好处。我们买下 GEICO 的价格很合算,而它又是一家极为出色的公司。它拥有出色的管理层,并采用低成本的分销模式,这是别人极难企及的——我的意思是,人人都想做到这一点,但很少有人能接近它。管理层正专注于进一步降低成本,并拓宽其竞争护城河。GEICO——就我个人的观察,我认为,至少在我能预见的未来,GEICO 的增长率很可能会比过去更高。不过,它过去的表现也完全令人满意。我认为成为伯克希尔的一部分会带来一些优势,因为承揽新业务会在账面上产生成本,而我们完全不在乎季度报告盈利。GEICO 此前对这些就不太敏感,我这样说是在称赞它。但比起成为伯克希尔一部分之后,他们之前因报告盈利而承受的压力确实更大。而且我认为,GEICO 作为伯克希尔的一部分,确实有一些非常大的机遇,可以做很多事。所以,我觉得五年后,你会很高兴我们全资拥有 GEICO。而且你会看到,GEICO 在作为独立公司时已然极其出色,而成为伯克希尔的一部分后,它甚至可能会更加兴旺。这不是因为我们带来了什么增色。我的意思是,管理层会继续自主经营。但作为更大企业的一部分,它确实享有一些优势。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I would say that GEICO is a huge plus to Berkshire. Now, we owned 50 percent of it before. I mean, we’ve had a — we've benefitted from our GEICO investment in a big way, ever since 1976. So, it's not entirely a new benefit that's coming in. We paid a good price for GEICO, but it is a terrific company. It has outstanding management. It has a low-cost method of distribution, which is very difficult for people to — I mean, everybody wants to have that. But they — very few come close to it. The management is focused on bringing costs down even further and widening that competitive moat. GEICO — I personally think that, just from what I see, that GEICO — I would think GEICO's growth rate is likely to be greater, at least, in the future, that I can see, over where it has been in the past. But it's been perfectly satisfactory in the past. I think there are some advantages to it being part of Berkshire, in that there are costs attached to bringing new business on the books. And we care not at all about reported quarterly earnings. GEICO was relatively insensitive to those before. And that's a compliment when I say that. But they had some more pressure on them in respect to reported earnings than they will have, as part of Berkshire. And I think there's some really big opportunities, in terms of what can be done with GEICO as part of Berkshire. So, I think five years from now, you'll be very happy with the fact that we own a hundred percent of GEICO. And I think you will see that as marvelous a company as GEICO was independently — as an independent company — it will flourish maybe even a bit more as being part of Berkshire. Not because we bring anything to the party. I mean, the management will continue to run it autonomously. But there’s — there are some advantages for it in being part of a larger enterprise.
伯克希尔的业务价值高于账面价值
Berkshire businesses worth more than book value
沃伦·巴菲特6 区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 6.
现场股东巴菲特先生,我叫史蒂文·图奇纳。我是来自加拿大多伦多的股东。我的问题与伯克希尔股票的估值有关。考虑到伯克希尔所持有的大量私营企业是按历史成本入账的,且无论数量还是金额都极为庞大,股票交易时的市净率难道不应该随着时间的推移而自然扩大,以反映这些私营持股内在价值的增长吗?我举《布法罗新闻》为例,它在账面上基本是——我想差不多接近于零。而就连 GEICO,现在账面上大概也只有 30 亿到 40 亿美元——实际价值远高于此——这些例子不正说明了内在价值与账面价值之间的差距吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, my name is Steven Tuchner. I'm a shareholder from Toronto, Canada. And my question concerns the valuation of Berkshire shares. Given the large number and dollar size of the private businesses recorded at historic cost, which Berkshire owns, shouldn't the multiple to book that the stock trades at, essentially, expand over time to reflect the increases in intrinsic value of the private holdings? And I cite Buffalo News on the books at, essentially, I think around zero. And even GEICO now will be on the books at, probably, between 3 and 4 billion — worth more than that — as examples of the disparity between intrinsic value and book value?
沃伦·巴菲特我们控股拥有全部或至少 80% 股份的大部分业务,账面价值都远低于它们现在的实际价值。有些业务的差距相当惊人,虽然相对于伯克希尔 400 亿美元的总市值来说并不惊人,但相对于入账成本就很惊人了。因为 1972 年我们以实际 2500 万美元买下喜诗糖果时,它的税前利润是 400 万美元。去年它的税前利润超过了 5000 万美元。我们买下《布法罗新闻》时,它一分不赚。付了 3000 多万美元。现在它每年的利润大概是 4500 万美元。我们还有不少这样的业务。而 GEICO,由于最初那 50% 股权的会计处理特殊规定,它的价值也高于我们的账面价值。所以,确实,我们的业务绝大多数都比内在价值——比账面价值——更值钱,在很多情况下还远远超过,当然这已经反映在我们股票的市场价格里了。我不认为你能通过账面价值的逐年变化去精确追踪内在价值。我们用的是账面价值的变化,作为价值变动的一个非常粗略的指引,有时我也会加以评论。有些年度的年报里,我说过我们的内在价值增长超过了账面价值的比例变化;在另一些年报里,我又说过我认为两者大致相当。所以,我不觉得你可以把它当做——给它套个倍数,得出一个精确的指引,一个精确的数字。但我确实认为它可以用来观察变动方向。不过,我们的保险业务是账面价值和内在价值之间美元差额最惊人的例子。我的意思是,这个差额数字随时间推移已经变得非常大了。我个人认为它还会变得更大,因为我认为 GEICO 会增长,我们其他业务也会表现良好。当然,诀窍在于,新的资本进来时——不是靠发行 B 股,因为相对我们经营会产生的资本量来说,那点金额微不足道——我们必须出去寻找机会,让三年或五年后人们会说:“嗯,这东西比账面价值值钱。” 这是个任务,比过去更难做了,但也挺有意思的。
WARREN BUFFETTMost of the businesses that we own all of, or at least 80 percent of, are carried on the books at considerably less than they're now worth. And with some of them, it's dramatic, although it's not dramatic compared to a $40 billion total market valuation for Berkshire. It's dramatic relative to the carrying price. Because when we bought See's Candy for an effective $25 million in 1972, it was earning 4 million, pretax. It earned over 50 million, pretax, last year. When we bought the Buffalo News, it was making nothing. Paid 30 and a fraction million. And it's now earning, maybe, 45 million. And we've got a number of businesses. And GEICO's worth more than we carry it for because of the accounting peculiarities of the first 50 percent. So, it is true that, overwhelmingly, our businesses are worth something more than intrinsic value — than book value — and, in many cases, very substantially more, although that's reflected in the market price of our stock. I don't think you can go from year to year and trace the intrinsic value precisely by changes in book value. We use changes in book value as a very rough guide as to movement, and sometimes I comment. There have been certain annual reports where I've said our intrinsic values grew more than the proportional change in book value, and there's been others where I've said I thought it was roughly the same. So, I don't think you can use it as a — stick some multiplier on it and come up with a precise guide — a precise number. But I do think it's a guide to movement. Our insurance business, though, is the most dramatic case of dollar difference between book value and intrinsic value. I mean, the number has gotten very big over time there. I personally think it will tend to get bigger, because I think GEICO will grow, and I think our other businesses will do well. The trick, of course, is to take the new capital as it comes along — and not from the issuance of the B, because that's relatively small compared to the amount of capital we will just generate from operations. Our float will grow from year to year. Our earnings will be retained. And we've got to go out and find things to do that three or five years from now that people say, "Well, that's worth more than the book value." And that's a job. It's a tougher job than it was. But it's kind of fun.
不预期 B 股会影响 A 股价格
Not expecting B shares to affect price of A shares
沃伦·巴菲特第七区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 7?
现场股东是的。我叫吉姆·埃利奥特,来自明尼阿波利斯。我想请教您一个上行情景:B 股发行后,数量有限,之后也没有大规模增发。A 股股东有些不太愿意转换。这时 B 股遭到抢购,比如,涨到了每股 2000 美元。那我们是不是就变成了尾巴摇狗,2000 美元的 B 股倒逼 A 股涨到 60000 美元?而且,那个——这种套利交易能解决这个问题吗?还是——
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes. My name is Jim Elliot (PH). I'm from Minneapolis. I wonder if you could help me with an upside scenario where the B shares, after they're issued, are limited and there's not a significant reissue afterwards. The A shareholders are somewhat reluctant to convert. And you have a run on the B shares where, let's say, it goes to $2,000 a share. Do we then have the tail wagging the dog, where the 2,000 command a $60,000 price on the A shares? And, you know, what — does the — this arbitrage take care of that? Or —
沃伦·巴菲特嗯——
WARREN BUFFETTWell —
现场股东——遇到这种情况我们能怎么办?
AUDIENCE MEMBER— what do we do in that case?
沃伦·巴菲特如果对 B 股的需求把价格推高了一些,那就会引发 A 股转换为 B 股。我的意思是,B 股唯一能——我们就随便说个数——如果它涨到 1200 美元——A 股就不可能明显低于 36000 美元。而且我不认为——我认为把 B 股引入这个等式,也许意味着——也必然意味着——会有一些人喜欢面值更低的股票而进来。但要明显影响现在价值 400 亿美元的 A 股,那得需要极大的买盘才行。这么说吧,如果每年有 1 亿美元左右的新增需求,那大概也就是比原本会流入 A 股的需求多一点点罢了。我并不认为这会造成多大波动。但你说得非常对,B 股涨上去不可能不迫使一些 A 股转换成 B 股。这——我觉得影响会很小。
WARREN BUFFETTIf there is demand for the B that pushes the price up somewhat, it will produce conversion from the A. I mean, the only way the B will be able to get — we'll just pick a figure — if it were to get to $1,200 — there is no way that the A could be selling appreciably below 36,000. And I don’t think — I think that introducing the B into the equation, may mean — it will mean — that there will be some people who like a lower denomination stock and come in. But it takes a lot of that to, in an appreciable way, affect $40 billion worth of what is now A stock. So, you know, if there were incremental demand of a hundred million dollars a year or something like that, that's a little more than the demand that might otherwise go into the A. But I do not see it producing anything in the way of a big movement. But you're quite correct in that there's no way that the B stock can go up and not really force some conversion from the A. It’ll — I think it'll be minor.
《世界百科全书》业务不会出售
World Book Encyclopedia business won't be sold
沃伦·巴菲特第八区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 8?
现场股东您好。我是来自加州奥克兰的里克·默里奥夫。我想请教您关于《世界百科全书》的问题。在我看来,《世界百科全书》似乎是伯克希尔在无意中投资技术的一个例子。我预计五到十年后,纸质百科全书的销售会变得非常困难,因为到那时,你大概花比纸质百科全书更少的钱就能买到电脑和电子百科全书了。到目前为止,我的印象是《世界百科全书》在营销和开发电子产品方面不如竞争对手积极。它是我看过的竞品中价格最高的。一年前,它的标价是 600 美元,而竞争对手是 8200 美元。你们有时促销最低卖 100 美元。但我觉得那并不是标价。一年前,你们仍在使用直销方式。我还没在大众市场软件店里见过它,也从未见过它和电脑捆绑销售。我看过一篇报纸上的电子百科全书评测,提到了《世界百科全书》的纸质版,但似乎不知道还有电子版存在,而当时它确实已经有了。就产品本身而言,我家同时有《世界百科全书》和《格罗利尔》。《格罗利尔》是买电脑时附赠的。去年,这两家百科全书都向我们推销升级版。《世界百科全书》要价 85 美元。《格罗利尔》只要 30 美元。但最后我只买了《格罗利尔》,因为它解决了我对这两款原版产品最大的失望——这在某种程度上,是个小问题——但我认为这对孩子们写学校报告很关键:这两家都不让你打印百科全书里占相当大比例的图片。书里有很多图片,但就是打印不出来。现在花不到 200 美元就能买一台彩色喷墨打印机,打印东西已经非常实用了。《世界百科全书》在升级方面完全没提这有什么改进。《格罗利尔》则说,你可以打印出几乎所有的图片。自从完成升级后,我发现确实如此。所以,我担心——我并非这方面的专家——但我认为《世界百科全书》在开发或营销其电子百科全书方面都不够积极。因此,我的问题是,你们打算在这个领域变得积极进取、成为电子技术方面的领头羊吗?还是说,你考虑过出售电子业务、直接退出吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHello. This is Rick Merliof (PH) from Oakland, California. I wanted to ask you about World Book Encyclopedia. World Book seems to me to be an example where Berkshire has invested in technology without necessarily intending to. I would expect that in five or 10 years it's going to be real tough to sell a paper encyclopedia, because at that time, you'll probably be able to buy the computer and the electronic encyclopedia for less than the paper encyclopedia. Up till now, I haven't had the impression that World Book has been as aggressive as its competitors in marketing and developing its electronic product. It's been the highest price that I have seen of the competition. It’s — it asked at least — a year ago, its list price was 600 and the competition was 8,200. You sold as low as a hundred on special promotions. But it — I don't think that was the list. A year ago, you were still selling by direct sales. I have not yet seen it in a mass market software store. I've never seen it bundled with a computer. And I have seen one newspaper review of electronic encyclopedias that mention the World Book print version but didn't seem to be aware that a World Book electronic version was available, which it was at that time. In terms of the product itself, we have both the World Book and the Grolier's at our house. The Grolier's came with the computer. And both encyclopedias, in this last year, solicited us to buy an upgrade. World Book was asking $85. Grolier's was asking 30. But in addition, I ended up buying only the Grolier's, because it addressed my biggest disappointment on the original version of both of them, which — it’s sort of a — in a way, a minor issue. But I thought it was relevant for kids doing school reports. Neither one allows you to print out a very big percentage of the pictures in the encyclopedia. They have a lot of pictures. But you can't print them. And you can get a color inkjet printer for under 200 bucks these days, so it's real practical to print things out. The World Book made no mention of having any improvement in this area. The Grolier's said you can print out almost all the pictures. And I have found — since we got the upgrade — I found that to be true. So, I'm concerned that — I'm not an expert on this, but I don't think World Book is as aggressive in either developing or marketing its electronic encyclopedia. So, my question is, do you plan to become aggressive in this area and a leader in the electronic technology? Or have you considered selling your electronic business and just getting out of it?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。我们不会出售电子业务,这一点我可以告诉你。你说得很对。有些技术方面的事情我不太在行,我连开个灯开关都有点费劲。但——(笑声)——就捆绑产品来说,也就是随新电脑一起购买的百科全书,从销量上看,这毫无疑问已经是一门大生意了。不过,从金额上看就没那么大了,因为这种和原始设备捆绑销售的产品,单价非常低。实际上,Encarta 大概——我确信它的捆绑销量,你知道,已经达到了几千万套。这不一定能产生很多收入,但让大量产品普及了出去。在我们《世界百科全书》这边——你们有些人可能没注意到,《大英百科全书》最近几周内刚刚宣布停止直接销售印刷版。美国印刷版百科全书的销量,在过去几年里下降得非常厉害,《世界百科全书》也不例外。我们改了——我们正在改变,并且已经在国内部分地区改变了——我们的分销系统,因为我们想看看,就算还有什么办法能让直接分销行得通,那该怎么运作。有的迹象表明,我们也许能在这项业务中赚到钱,但要用不一样的成本结构来做。嗯,这方面我们还会了解更多。我们还没走太远,因为我们是最近几个月才改的——或者说部分改变了——分销系统。要弄清楚如何才能在电子版或纸质版百科全书的这一头赚钱,这并不容易。在电子版业务方面,我们有一些想法,大概等半年左右我们会清楚得多,但我现在真的——我还不想谈这些细节。我自己也有这个电子产品。它是第一流的产品。我们有好点子让它变得更好。同时,我们从纸质版业务端已经砍掉了大量成本。我们会把其中一部分资源投入到电子版业务里。我们确实砍掉了大量成本。很有可能这会是一门对我们来说行得通的生意,哪怕对别人来说不行,但最终结果还没有定论。这门生意已经不是五年前的样子了。而且我也不认为它能回到五年前的样子,因为世界在某些方面已经改变了。但我们——我们不会卖掉《世界百科全书》,这点我可以明确地声明。我们也不会卖掉《世界百科全书》的电子版。我们会留在这个行业。但在如何找到一个配置,既能为我们创造可观的利润,又能在这个过程中卖出大量《世界百科全书》这件事上,我们还在摸索中。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We won't sell the electronic business. That, I can tell you. You're quite correct. Some of the technical stuff I'm not very good at. I have a little trouble turning on the light switch. But the — (laughter) — in terms of the bundled product, which is the encyclopedia that is offered with the purchase of a new computer, there's no question that that's become a large business in units. It's not so large in terms of dollars, because those units, bundled with an original equipment sale, are very low. Actually, Encarta's probably — well I'm sure has sold, you know, many, many millions of units bundled with a new encyclopedia. It doesn't necessarily produce a lot of dollars. But it produces a lot of units out there. We, at World Book — Encyclopedia — some of you may not have noticed, but Encyclopedia Britannica has, within the last couple of weeks, announced the cessation of direct distribution of the print product. And unit sales of encyclopedias — print encyclopedias — in the country have gone down very significantly in the last few years, as they have at World Book. We changed the — we are in the process of changing, and have already changed in some parts of the country — the distribution system because we are going to see what can be made to work, if anything, in the direct distribution. There are some indications that we may be able to make money in that business but with a different cost structure than before. And it — well, we'll know more about that. We're not that far along, because we changed the distribution within the last — or partially changed it — within the last few months. We — it's not easy to figure out how to make money in either the electronic or print encyclopedia end of the business. And we have some ideas in the electronic end that we'll know a lot more about in about six months or so, but I can’t really — I don't want to go into any detail on those at present. I've got the electronic product myself. It's a first-class product. We’ve got ideas about how to make it an even better product. And we have taken a lot of costs out of the print end of the business. We'll be putting some of those into the electronic end. But we've taken a lot of costs out. It may well be that it'll be a workable business for us, even though it isn't for anybody else, but the jury's still out on that. It is not the business it was five years ago. And I don't think it will be the business that it was five years ago, because the world is changed in some ways on that. But we’re — we will not sell World Book. That I can just — I'll state that unequivocally. We will not sell electronic World Book. We are in the business to stay. But we are groping a bit in terms of figuring out a configuration that will produce decent profits for us and sell a lot of World Books in the process. Charlie?
查理·芒格我们没法避免某些业务在有些时候下滑。蓝筹印花公司曾经一年卖出价值 1.2 亿美元的印花,现在一年也就 20 万美元左右了。所以,我们确实会折损一些生意。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWe don't have any way of avoiding declines in some of our businesses some of the time. Blue Chip Stamps once sold stamps at the rate of $120 million year. Now, it's about $200,000 a year. So, we lose some. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特很多年前我们做过风车生意。(笑声)我们会尽量——你知道,我们对这些问题考虑得很多。但确实存在行业层面的问题。我一度也做过无烟煤生意。还有有轨电车。这些我都经历过。但《世界图书》是一流的产品。是我自己在用的产品,查理也在用。而且,通过电子手段传递信息的成本,比没多少年前要低得多——我是说,低到令人难以置信的地步。整个社会在很多方面都将适应这一变化,不只是百科全书领域。它影响到了我们旗下的一些业务,也是我们在思考的问题。但就电子世界而言,查理和我不太可能比世界上其他人更聪明。我是说,我们把它看作这样一件事:我们在其中寻找那些显而易见的机会,寻找我们有能力做点什么的领域。但我们不想在别人擅长的游戏里打败别人,而我们对那个游戏并不擅长。
WARREN BUFFETTWe were in the windmill business many years ago. (Laughter) We try to make — you know, we think plenty about the problems. But there are industry problems. I was in anthracite coal at one time, too. Street railways. I've seen them all. But World Book is a first-class product. It's a product I use, a product Charlie uses. And there is — through an electronic means, you can deliver information at costs far, far less than — I mean, unbelievably less — than was the case not that many years ago. And the world, in many forms, will be adjusting to that, not just in encyclopedias. And it affects some of the businesses we're in. And it's something we think about. But it's very unlikely that Charlie and I are going to be smarter than the rest of the world, in terms of the electronic world. I mean, we are looking at it as something where we’re looking for the obvious, and something that is within our capability of doing something about. But we're not trying to beat people at their own game, where we're not very good at the game.
保护公众之举展现了“非凡的诚信”
Protecting public shows "tremendous integrity"
沃伦·巴菲特1 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 1?
现场股东巴菲特先生,我是来自加拿大的理查德·查尔顿。下午好,芒格先生,也向您问好。(笑声)过去七八年来,我来参加股东大会的一大亮点,是您回答新股东必定会问的那个问题——您为什么不拆股——的方式。我知道让这只股票以一种独有的方式交易对您来说意味着什么。过去 17 年里,您一直是我的导师。我认为,您这次拆股,是为了保护公众,并间接保护伯克希尔的股东,但主要是为了保护公众,而这正是您和芒格先生非凡诚信的又一次体现。您为美国企业界树立了一个了不起的榜样。我向您致敬,先生。非常感谢您。(掌声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, Richard Charlton from Canada. One of the highlights of — good afternoon, Mr. Munger, also. (Laughter) One of the highlights, for me, in coming to the annual meeting for the past seven or eight years was the way that you dealt with the question that was inevitably asked by a new shareholder as to why you will not split your shares. I know how much it has meant to you to keep the shares trading in an exclusive way. And you have been my mentor for the last 17 years. And I think that what you're doing in splitting these shares in order to protect the public, and indirectly, Berkshire shareholders, but mostly to protect the public, is just another expression of your and Mr. Munger's tremendous integrity. And you're setting a fantastic example for corporate America. And I salute you, sir. And I thank you very much. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. Thank you.
对于伯克希尔的股价,“越公平越好”
"The fairer, the better" for Berkshire's stock price
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,真不想这样就离开第一区,但我们继续去第二区吧。(笑声)谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I hate to leave zone one after that, but we'll go on to zone 2. (Laughter) Thank you.
现场股东我是来自俄克拉荷马州俄克拉荷马城的韦斯利·杰克。作为一名股票经纪人,我可以说,我绝对不喜欢单位投资信托,也很欣赏您针对 B 股提出的方案。但长期来看——我们其余股东期望的是股价未来能上涨。您不觉得他们将来还会带着这种新点子卷土重来吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERWesley Jack from Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. As a stock broker, I can say I definitely don't like UITs and I appreciate your plan for the B shares. But as long — with the rest of the shareholders, what we hope — that the shares go up in value in the future. Don't you see a problem with them coming back with this idea in the future?
沃伦·巴菲特在单位投资信托上——你是指发行单位投资信托的事?
WARREN BUFFETTOn the unit — you mean on the issuance of unit trusts?
现场股东是的。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes.
沃伦·巴菲特哦,我看不出有什么问题,因为 B 股已经推出了。而且,不管它在绝对意义上到底有多好,跟那些要向销售人员支付高额佣金并附带大量年度费用的产品相比,它都是一个更优的选择。所以,我认为——我猜那个问题我们已经解决了。我倒希望当初那个问题没有出现,但——我认为,任何人想要诚实地通过单位投资信托提供一种衍生类产品,并且声称它比能买到的那个产品更好,都会非常困难。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, I don't see any problem because the B will be out there. And it is a superior product, whatever its absolute merits may be. On a relative basis, it is a superior product to anything that is going to carry a big commission to a salesperson and a lot of annual costs. So, I think — my guess is we've taken care of that problem. I wish it hadn't come up, but it — I would think that it would be very difficult for anyone to honestly offer a product — a derivative-type product — through a unit trust that would be superior to buying the product that will be available.
查理·芒格我想他是担心 B 股会涨到让整个故事重演的地步。我得说,如果真发生了那种情况,我们会很高兴。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERI think he's afraid that the B will go up to the place where the whole story comes again. And I must say that if that were to happen, we'd like it. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特对,我们会高兴,但前提是它反映了内在价值的上涨,不过——(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we'd like it, only if it reflected underlying values, but — (Laughs)
查理对。
CHARLIEYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特对。我们对这件事的态度非常特别。我的意思是,大多数管理层认为,自家股票的价格是越高越好。这种想法可以理解。但问题在于,游戏从来不会在某一刻就彻底结束。我们确实觉得,越公平越好。我们的目标是,每一位股东在其持股期间,都能同步分享伯克希尔作为一家企业所取得的进步。换句话说,我们不想让一方赚另一方的钱。我们希望他们基于企业价值的增长来分享收益。如果股价被严重高估或严重低估,你知道,那可能会让一方——股价过高时是卖方,过低时是买方——非常高兴。但交易的对手方就会蒙受损失。在经济学中,你知道,最重要的问题——也许在经济学之外也很重要——就是每当有人告诉你一件事时,你首先要问自己:“然后呢?”我们在伯克希尔就习惯这么思考。所以,股价上涨本身并不是终点,因为紧接着的问题是:“然后呢?”如果股价上涨是因为内在价值在增长,那么每个人都在这个过程中公平地分到了属于自己的一份蛋糕。如果股价以某种方式超过了内在价值的增长,那么卖出股票的股东固然获得了额外的好处,但新进入的股东就处于不利地位。我们更希望股价能够随着时间的推移贴近内在价值。我们相信,通过吸引合适的股东、与他们恰当地沟通,并遵循正确的政策,我们可以在这个市场本质上波动较大的世界里,尽最大可能接近这一理想状态。到目前为止,我认为我们做得相当不错。但我们的意愿——也是目标——是继续保持下去。要记住一件事:归根到底,所有企业主作为一个整体,他们的最终收益不可能好于他们旗下企业所创造的业绩。我的意思是,你可以——企业才是根本,而且不光是我们的企业,我说的是所有美国企业——美国企业的盈利能力决定了美国企业所有者的最终回报。你可以彻底忘掉那些小小的股票代码和其他一切。所有者在承担了经纪人佣金、管理费以及各种其他额外成本之后,他们的收益就会相应减少。这些成本侵蚀了来自企业的实际回报。至今还没有人想出一个办法,能让所有者永久性地比他们所投的企业赚得更好。我们的想法是,让他们在长期持股的过程中,按他们作为股东期间企业实现的收益比例来获利。这并不容易做到,也无法完美实现。但这是我们一路走来始终追求的目标。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We have a very strange attitude on that. I mean, most managements feel that the — on the price of their shares — that the higher, the better. And that's an understandable feeling. But the trouble is the game isn't over at any time. We really feel the fairer, the better. Our goal is that every shareholder participates in the progress that Berkshire makes, during — as a business — during their holding period. In other words, we don't want one party getting wealthy off the other. We want them to share based on the gain in value of the business. And to the extent that the stock got way overvalued or way undervalued, you know, that may make one party — in the first case, the seller, in the second case, the buyer — very happy. But there's somebody on the other side of the transaction. In economics, you know, the most important question — maybe important beyond economics, too — but whenever somebody tells you something, you know, the first question to ask yourself is, "And then what?" And we tend to do that around Berkshire. And so, the stock going up is not an end of itself, because it’s — the next question is, “And then what?” And to the extent that the stock goes up because the intrinsic value goes up, everyone is getting their fair share of the pie as they go along. To the extent it exceeds that in some way, the selling shareholder gets a benefit. But the entering shareholder is at a disadvantage. And we really like the idea of the price tracking intrinsic value over time. And we think that, by having the right kind of shareholders and by communicating with them properly and following the right kind of policies, that we can come as close to that as is attainable in a world where markets, essentially, are fairly volatile. And so far, I think it's worked out pretty well that way. But the intention is to — and the goal — is to keep it that way. One thing to remember: in the end, the owners of businesses, in aggregate, cannot come out anyway better than the businesses come out. I mean, you can — the businesses are the — and not just our businesses, I'm talking about all American business — the profitability of American business determines the profitability of what the owners of American business have, and you can forget all about the little ticker symbols and everything else. The owners suffer to the extent that they have some extra costs imposed in broker's commissions, fees, all kinds of things. That diminishes the return from the business. But no one has figured out yet how to perpetually have owners do better than their businesses. And our idea is to have them do it as they go long in proportion to the gain that occurs during their tenure as a shareholder. And that isn't easy to do. And it's not attained perfectly. But that's the goal as we go along.
[章节][关键词] 保险浮存金:“最重要的是,要便宜”
Insurance float: "Above all, get it cheap"
沃伦·巴菲特第三区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 3?
现场股东莫鲁斯·斯彭斯(Maurus Spence)。我有一个严肃的问题,不过先问一个不太严肃的。不太严肃的是:你刚才说你和查理两个人加起来减了 100 磅。我很好奇,谁减得更多?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMaurus Spence. And I have a serious question and, then, a less serious question first. The less serious: you said that you and Charlie had lost, between you, a hundred pounds. I was curious who had lost more?
沃伦·巴菲特不对,不对。我说的是董事会成员加起来减了 100 磅。(笑声)要是没把有些董事会成员算进去,他们可是会不高兴的。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTNo, no. I said the board had lost a hundred pounds. (Laughter) I have some members of the board who would take umbrage of the fact that they weren't included in that total. (Laughter)
现场股东好吧,那谁减了——?
AUDIENCE MEMBEROK, Who lost —?
沃伦·巴菲特查理和我,我俩现在差不多,对吧?出于谦虚,我就不说了——(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I, we're pretty close at the moment, aren't we? Modesty prevents — (Laughs)
现场股东不管怎么说,我得说,你们两位看起来都棒极了。
AUDIENCE MEMBERI must say you're both looking very good, anyway.
沃伦·巴菲特我们感觉也确实不错。
WARREN BUFFETTWe’re feeling good.
现场股东我想知道谁减得最多,还有就是你们的节食秘诀。(笑声)接着是那个更严肃的问题,关于浮存金。你之前稍微提到过一点。你经常说,保险业务可能是你拥有的最重要的生意。在年报第 12 页,你写道:“我们受益极大,其程度远超普遍认知,因为我们的负债几乎没有成本。”我想你能不能把这个解释得更清楚一些,好让我们理解。
AUDIENCE MEMBERI was wondering who lost the most and what your diet secrets were. (Laughter) And, then, the more serious question was about float. You touched on this a little bit earlier. But you've often said that your insurance business is probably the most important business that you own. On page 12 of the annual report, you said, "We have benefitted greatly to a degree that has not been generally understood, because our liabilities have cost us very little." I was wondering if you could describe this a little bit better so we can understand it.
沃伦·巴菲特对,那个——查理和我减掉的重量差不多,每人大概减了 20 磅左右。保险业务为我们提供浮存金。浮存金是我们持有、但并非我们所有的资金。就像银行的存款。银行持有存款,那些钱不是银行的,但钱在银行手里。当银行持有存款时,除了活期存款,所有存款都有一个明确的成本,也就是所附带的利息。此外,运营整套系统、吸收资金本身也有成本,这些成本也要相应地分摊到活期存款和定期存款上。因此,获取他们所谓的“存款”——我们也可以称之为“浮存金”——是有成本的。保险业务中也存在类似现象:保单持有人把保费在保单期限开始时交给我们。也就是说,我们是在产品交付之前就提前收钱了。其次,理赔是需要时间的,尤其是在责任险领域。如果你的车只是挡泥板撞瘪了,很快就能解决;但要是涉及复杂的伤害等情况,就可能需要好几年才能结案。在这段期间,钱在我们手里。所以,实际上,我们拥有的东西就相当于银行的存款。只不过,银行存款的成本大致上能很容易地算出来,而就保险公司持有的浮存金而言,你很难确切知道它的成本到底是多少,直至你所有的保单都到期、所有的损失都理赔完毕。只不过,在某些情况下,这可能遥遥无期。所以,你只能随着时间推移,去估算这笔浮存金的成本。伯克希尔从事这项业务 29 年来,情况似乎是——没法打包票,因为你永远无法确知未来会怎样——不过,平均而言,我们的浮存金似乎没有给我们带来任何成本。有些年份我们有承保亏损,那时就有成本;有些年份我们有承保利润,这就反过来等于成本为负。所以说,这些年我们是以非常有利的条件获得了这些浮存金。远不止——与之完全同等重要的是——以低成本获得它很重要,就我们而言,是零成本。但另一个同样重要的事实是,我们让它的规模大幅增长。这样,我们获得了越来越多、且没有附带任何成本的资金。要是我们还停留在 1967 年那个规模,浮存金大概也就 1600 万或 1700 万美元,就算毫无成本,当然也不错。但 1700 万免费资金也有它的价值,只是不会大到哪儿去。而如果做到 70 亿美元,并且都是免费资金,那价值就相当可观了。在伯克希尔身上,这种资金规模的增长、以及零成本资金是如何影响我们长期价值增长的相互作用,很可能普遍还没有得到充分认识。人们总看——永远在看我们的资产端,却不太关注负债端。查理和我可对此高度关注。我想说,这——业务能发展成这样,并不是全然偶然。并且我们也打算在未来努力让它能继续沿着这种态势发展下去。但外面也有竞争对手。浮存金本身并不是天赐之福。我可以给你举出许多保险公司,它们一度觉得能产生浮存金就万事大吉了,结果却因承保亏损而大赔特赔,若是当初压根儿没听过保险这行,境况反倒要好得多。但关键在于,任务就是拿到浮存金,且以持续增长的量拿到它,而重中之重是要低成本地拿到它。这正是我们努力的目标。要在这一行里做到这点,就得通过拥有某种竞争优势。你不可能仅凭开一家普普通通的保险公司就能办到。普普通通的保险公司并非一门好生意。我们在某些方面能做到,是因为我们对这门生意的态度;我们能做到,是因为我们的财务实力赋予了我们某些竞争优势;而就 GEICO 而言,我们能做到,则是因为它本身的运营成本极低。随着时间推移,我们得自个儿——全靠我们自个儿——去设法将其中每一项竞争优势都发挥到极致。这些优势是我们建立起来的。我的意思是,1967 年的时候,保险业同仁可不这么看我们。是我们——我们构建起了一个颇具竞争力的强势地位。而在 GEICO 这一案例中,这优势是它脱离我们也照样拥有的。我们只是随着时间逐步买入了它。它是一项非常重要的资产。你今后许多年里都应该高度关注这项资产,既看增长,也看成本。这会有助于你估算公司的内在价值。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the — Charlie and I have lost about the same amount, at about 20 pounds each. The insurance business provides us with float. And float is money that we hold that doesn't belong to us. It's like a bank having deposits. A bank has deposits. The money doesn't belong to it. But it holds the money. Now, when a bank holds deposits, on everything except demand deposits, there's an explicit cost, an interest rate attached to it. And, then, there are the costs of running the system and gathering the money which is — also must be attributed both to demand and time deposit. So there's a cost to getting what they would call deposits and we could call float. In the insurance business, a similar phenomenon takes place in that policy holders give us their money at the start of the policy period. And therefore, we get the money paid in advance for the product. And secondly, it takes time to settle losses, particularly in the liability area. If you bang up a fender on your car, you — it's going to get settled very quickly, so there’s — but if there's a complicated injury or something, it may take some years to settle. And during that period, we hold the money. So, we have, in effect, something that is tantamount to the deposits of a bank. But whereas the deposits of a bank, it's quite easy to calculate the approximate cost, in the case of the float that the insurance company has, you don't really know what the cost of that float is until all your policies and losses — policies have expired and your losses have all been settled. Well, that's forever, in some cases. So, you're only making an estimate, as you go along, of what that float is costing. To date with Berkshire, in the 29 years we've been in the business, it appears — never certain, because you don't know for sure what's going to happen — but it appears that our float has not cost us anything, in — on average. There's been years when we've had an underwriting loss when there's a cost. There's been years when we had an underwriting profit. And so, we had a reverse cost. So we have obtained that float on very advantageous terms over the years. Far more than — fully as important as that— it's important to get it at a low cost, in our case, no cost. But the other important thing is that we've grown it dramatically. And so, we've gotten more and more money without having any cost attached to it. And if we still had our 16 — or 17 million, I guess — of float that we had in 1967 and it was no cost, it would be very nice. But 17 million of free money is worth something, but it's not worth a ton. Having seven billion, if we can achieve that as free money, it's worth a lot of money. And that growth has not, probably, generally, been appreciated fully in connection with Berkshire nor has the interplay of how having zero-cost money, in terms of affecting our gain in value over time. People have looked at — always looked at our asset side, but they haven't paid as much attention to the liability side. Charlie and I pay a lot of attention to that. And, I mean, this — it's not entirely an accident that the business has developed in this manner. And we have intentions of trying to make it continue to develop in this manner, and in that manner, in the future. But we've got competitors out there, too. Float, per se, is not a blessing. We can show you many insurance companies that thought it was wonderful to generate float. And they have lost so much money in underwriting that they'd be better off if they'd never heard of the insurance business. But, you know, the job is to get it, get it in increasing quantities, but above all, get it cheap. And that's what we work at. And you do that in the business through having some kind of competitive advantages. You won't do it just by having an ordinary insurance company. The ordinary insurance company is not a good business. We have it, in certain respects, because of our attitude toward the business. We have it because of our financial strength gives us certain competitive advantages, and we have it in the case of GEICO, because of a very low-cost operation. And it's us — up to us — to try and figure out ways to maximize each one of those competitive advantages over time. We've built those advantages. I mean, in 1967, we were not looked at that way in the insurance business. We were — we've built a position of competitive strengths. And in the case of GEICO, they had it without us. But we have bought into it over time. It's a very important asset. And you ought to pay a lot of attention over the years as to what is happening in — with that asset as to both growth and costs. And that will aid you in calculating intrinsic value. Charlie?
查理·芒格没什么要补充的。
CHARLIE MUNGERNothing to add.
沃伦·巴菲特好。
WARREN BUFFETTOK.
内在价值并非高于当前股价
Intrinsic value isn't above current stock price
沃伦·巴菲特下一个是第四区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 4 is the next.
现场股东亨利·纽霍夫(Henry Neuhoff,音),股东,来自得克萨斯州达拉斯。我猜,你认为伯克希尔股票的内在价值要高于当前股价所代表的价值。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHenry Neuhoff (PH), shareholder, Dallas, Texas. My guess is that you consider the intrinsic value of the shares to be more than that represented by the price.
沃伦·巴菲特高于什么所代表的价值?
WARREN BUFFETTBy more than represented by what?
现场股东高于当前股价所代表的价值。如果是这种情况,那你对伯克希尔回购自家股票这事怎么看?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMore than represented by the current price of the shares. If that be the case, what would be your thoughts about Berkshire repurchasing its own shares?
沃伦·巴菲特是,不。我们说过,我们不认为伯克希尔在当前价格被低估。我们没说我们认为它被高估。但我们说过,我们不认为它被低估。所以,根据我们的估计进行回购不符合股东利益。将来某个时候有可能符合,但我们现在不这么认为。我们认为内在价值远高于账面价值,但我们不认为它高于当前价格。不过,我们也不打算卖出任何一股股票。(笑声)(录音中断)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, no. We have said we do not consider Berkshire undervalued at this price. We didn't say we thought it was overvalued. But we said we did not consider it undervalued. So, a repurchase based on our estimate would not be in the interests of shareholders. It's conceivable it could be at some time, but we do not think that's the case. We think intrinsic value far exceeds book value, but we do not think it exceeds present price. We're not selling any shares, though, either. (Laughter) (Break in tape)
“代持股东”带来的麻烦
Complications from "street name" shareholders
沃伦·巴菲特6 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 6?
现场股东我叫卡洛斯·卢塞拉(音),来自爱达荷州。我的问题跟代持有关。我们家的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票在一个家族有限合伙企业里,而且是以代持形式持有的。那么,代持股票为什么不能参与伯克希尔·哈撒韦的慈善捐赠计划?原因是什么?理由是什么?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Carlos Lucera (PH). I'm from Idaho. And my question relates to street names. Our stock at Berkshire Hathaway is in a family limited partnership. And in addition to that, it's in a street name. Now, what is the reason, and the rationale behind the reason, for street name shares not being able to participate in the charitable contributions by Berkshire Hathaway?
沃伦·巴菲特对。我们大概 15 年前向国税局提交了一份裁决申请,是关于股东指定捐赠计划的。我们拿到的裁决指定的是登记在册的股东,不包括代持股东。这并不意味着不可能拿到不同的裁决。但说实话,考虑到我们遇到的各种间接持股问题,以及在其他方面这些间接持股给我们带来的麻烦,我觉得试图把这个计划扩展到代持股东会是一场噩梦。我认为成本将远超收益。而且情况就是这样,任何以代持形式持有股票的人如果想参加,都可以把股票转成自己名下。所以我认为,个人股东花很少的工夫就能抵消我们在伯克希尔遇到的一大堆问题。我们现在的系统能应付。我们那里有 12 个人,他们负责股东大会,拍电影,做各种各样的事。(笑声)而且——这会非常困难——你知道,如果多 1 万股参与,那就是 12 万美元的捐赠。我就是觉得不怎么值得。不管怎样,我们目前的裁决不涵盖这个情况。我们考虑过这个事。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We submitted a request for ruling to the IRS — I don't know, 15 or so years ago, in connection with the shareholder-designated contribution program. And the ruling we received specifies record holders and not street name holders. Now, that doesn't mean that a different ruling might not be obtained. But frankly, when we get into the multitude of indirect holdings and the problems we have with those indirect holdings in other respects, I think it would be a bit of a nightmare for us to attempt to get that program extended through — into street name holders. I think the costs would far exceed the benefits. And I think that it is the situation, and anybody with it in street name can move it into their own name if they want to. So I think, with very small amount of effort on the part of an individual shareholder, it would offset an enormous set of problems that we would encounter at Berkshire. We can handle the present system. We've got 12 people there. And they run the annual meeting. They make movies. They do all kinds of things. (Laughter) And it would be — it would be very tough and — you know, if an extra 10,000 shares participated, it'd be $120,000 of contributions. I just don't think it would be worthwhile. Our ruling doesn't presently cover the subject, in any event. It's something we've thought about. Charlie?
查理·芒格是啊。我觉得就算他们改了裁决,我们也不会改政策。这在管理上会非常困难。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. I think even if they changed the ruling, we wouldn't change the policy. It would be, administratively, very difficult.
沃伦·巴菲特我们在其他方面也会遇到问题,比如人们收不到材料——就是股东大会的材料。我们收到不少股东的反馈,说他们从券商那里拿不到材料,而且他们——他们不知道 B 股是怎么回事,因为没收到委托书。就是——代持带来的问题更多。不过,我们现在——大概有——别提 B 股了。我相信,我们代持的股东数量是直接持股的两倍多。虽然股票数量远——我是说——会不到 20%。但股东数量大概是翻倍的。
WARREN BUFFETTWe run into other problems, in terms of people getting their material — just the material on the annual meeting. And we've heard from a number of shareholders that they can't get it from their broker, and they’re — they don't know what the B is all about because they didn't get their proxies. And it just — street name posed more problems. Although, we have a — now we have — probably have more than — forget about the B. We have more than twice as many, I believe, holders in street name as in direct ownership. Although, the number of shares is far, far — I mean it’s — it'd be less than 20 percent of the shares. But it's probably double the number of holders.
年报中不再列示“透视盈余”
No "look-through earnings" in annual report
沃伦·巴菲特7 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 7?
现场股东下午好。我叫比尔·格拉(音),来自旧金山湾区。我持有你们的股票很多年了,很欣赏你们做得很出色。不过,今年董事长的信里——你们几年前提出了一个概念叫透视盈余。
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon. My name is Bill Guerra (PH). I'm from the San Francisco Bay area. I've owned your shares for many years and appreciate the good job you've done. However, in this year's chairman's letter — you developed a concept a few years ago called look-through earnings.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTRight.
现场股东我今年没看到这个数据。我想知道是不是这个概念不再有效了,或者你为什么没有展示这个数据?
AUDIENCE MEMBERAnd I failed to see that this year. And I'm wondering if that no longer is a valid concept or why you refrained from showing the data?
沃伦·巴菲特对,问得好。我其实应该在年报里提到这个的,因为我说过这个,我们以后还会讨论。我们的目标是 2000 年透视盈余达到 20 亿美元。考虑到股本增加,这个目标会向上调整,基本目标不变。但今年没列示有两个原因。就像我说的,我本该提一下的。一个是今年的信是我写过最长的一篇,再加上那部分内容会更长。另一个是——这也是重要的一点——我们在年底之后不久,公司的构成发生了重大变化。所以,我们的大都会股票没了。在它消失的时候,我们不知道会变成现金、还是全部变成迪士尼股票、还是两者兼有。我们收购了 GEICO 的另一半,即使现在会计处理都没明确。我觉得——去年的透视盈余没问题。但我感觉,等我解释完所有这些,为了那些正在进行的交易要做的调整,再把它加到我写过最长的信里,会拖慢很多节奏,而且没什么特别帮助。这个会在今年、下一份报告和以后的报告里重新出现,因为这是一个非常重要的概念,也是我们关注的重点。只是去年的数字——等我试图解释清楚的时候会一团糟。你知道,我通常——会计这些东西,我知道会让很多人犯困。但相信我,写起来也没那么有趣。(笑声)所以今年我没写。明年会有。去年的数字其实还好,但会附带很多星号注释。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. That's a good question. I should have actually covered that in the annual report, in terms of mentioning — because I've talked about it, and we'll talk about it in the future. And we do have a goal on look-through earnings of $2 billion in the year 2000. And that's going to be adjusted upward to allow for the fact there are more shares outstanding. It'll be the same basic goal. But there were two reasons that it was skipped this year. And like I said, I should've mentioned it. One was it was the longest letter we've ever had. And having that section in there would've elongated it even a bit more. And that, coupled with the fact — and this is the important part of it — we had major changes in our — the composition of the company — immediately after the end of the year. So, our Capital City stock disappeared. At the time it disappeared, we didn't know whether it was going into cash, or all Disney stock, or a combination. We had the acquisition of the other half of GEICO where, even now, the accounting treatment isn't clear. And I felt that — The look-through earnings last year were fine. But I felt that, by the time I got through explaining all of the adjustments you would have to make for the transactions then pending, that adding it to the — to already the longest letter I've written, would've slowed things down a lot and not been particularly helpful. It will be back in this year, this upcoming report, and future reports, because it's a very important concept. And it's something that we're focused on. It's just that last year's number — it would've been a mess by the time I got through trying to explain it. You know, I normally — the accounting stuff, I know, puts a lot of you to sleep. But believe me, it isn't so much fun writing it either. (Laughter) So, I skipped it this year. We'll have it next year. And the number would've been OK last year, but there would've been a lot of asterisks attached.
估算内在价值的折现率
Discount rate for estimating intrinsic value
沃伦·巴菲特请 8 区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 8, please.
现场股东是的。巴菲特先生,早上好。我叫埃德·瓦尔扎克(音),来自纽约。我是您的学生和投资哲学的崇拜者。我有一个问题。在确定一家公司的内在价值时,您似乎写到或暗示您会预测公司未来几年的股东盈余,然后用当前利率将其折现回来。我的问题是,当您折现一家公司的股东盈余时,您会在当前无风险利率之上要求多少溢价?换个说法,比如,现在贷款利率大约是 7%,如果您对可口可乐做同样的估算,您会用多少利率来折现它们的股东盈余?
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes. Mr. Buffett, good morning. My name's Ed Walzak (PH) from New York. I'm a student and an admirer of your investment philosophy. I have a question. In determining a company's intrinsic value, you seem to write or indicate that you project out a company's owner earnings for a number of years, and then discount that back by prevailing rates. My question is, how much of a premium, if any, to prevailing risk-free rates do you demand when you discount back the owner earnings of a company? Or stated differently, for example, today, with loan rates at about 7 percent, if you did the same exercise with Coca-Cola, at what rate of interest would you discount back their owner earnings?
沃伦·巴菲特对。我们经常被问到这个问题。关于用什么折现率,我们在过去的年报里也一定程度上回答过。我们基本上以长期政府债券利率为参照。也许在某些时候——因为我们不认为自己善于预测利率,但在利率看起来极低的时候——我们可能会用稍微高一点的利率。但我们并不把风险因子本身单独加进去,因为从本质上说,这个思路的纯粹性就在于,你是在对未来现金折现。而现金来自高风险企业,还是来自所谓的低风险企业,并没有区别。因此,一家自来水公司产出的现金——它还能存在一百年——跟你可能正在看的某家高科技公司产出的现金(如果它真有现金的话)——(笑声)——其价值没有任何不同。两者只是现金产出的价值,没有任何不同。或许你更难做出估算,也因此,等你全部计算完之后,可能想要一个更高的折价。但直到你决定愿意支付的价格之前,你可能会认定自己根本没法估算。我们看大多数公司就是这种情况。但我们秉持使用政府债券类利率的理念。我们秉持坚守那些自认为能大致看清未来的生意的理念——当然,你不可能看得完全精准——但我们认为能够合理把握的生意。我们会在一定程度上加以区分,我们不希望低于某个理解力的下限。所以,我们愿意坚守我们自认为相当了解的生意,而不是试图覆盖一整套各种风险利率组合,因为坦率地说,我们认为那纯粹是在玩弄数字。我是说,我们——我不认为你能把数字强行安在一家高度投机的生意上——整个行业五年后就会面目全非——然后得出结论说它有什么意义。如果你说,我要在利率上额外再加 6% 来反映这一事实——我倾向于认为这有点胡说八道。它可能看起来很数学化,但在我看来,那是数学乱码。你最好还是坚守你能理解的生意,用政府债券利率。当你能以大幅折价买进你极为了解的东西时,你才应该开始兴奋起来。查理?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We get asked that question a lot. And we've answered it to some extent in past annual reports about what discount rate to use. We basically think in terms of the long-term government rate. And there may be times, when in a very — because we don't think we're any good at predicting interest rates, but probably in times of very — what would seem like very low rates — we might use a little higher rate. But we don't put the risk factor in, per se, because essentially, the purity of the idea is that you're discounting future cash. And it doesn't make any difference whether cash comes from a risky business or a safe business — so-called safe business. So, the value of the cash delivered by a water company, which is going to be around for a hundred years, is not different than the value of the cash derived from some high-tech company, if any, that — (laughter) — you might be looking at. It may be harder for you to make the estimate. And you may, therefore, want a bigger discount when you get all through with the calculation. But up to the point where you decide what you're willing to pay — you may decide you can't estimate it at all. I mean, that's what happens with us with most companies. But we believe in using a government bond-type interest rate. We believe in trying to stick with businesses where we think we can see the future reasonably well — you never see it perfectly, obviously — but where we think we have a reasonable handle on it. And we would differentiate to some extent. We don't want to go below a certain threshold of understanding. So, we want to stick with businesses we think we understand quite well, and not try to have the whole panoply with all different kinds of risk rates, because, frankly, we think that'd just be playing games with numbers. I mean, we — I don't think you can stick something — numbers on a highly speculative business, where the whole industry's going to change in five years, and have it mean anything when you get through. If you say I'm going to stick an extra 6 percent in on the interest rate to allow for the fact — I tend to think that's kind of nonsense. I mean, it may look mathematical. But it's mathematical gibberish in my view. You better just stick with businesses that you can understand, use the government bond rate. And when you can buy them — something you understand well — at a significant discount, then, you should start getting excited. Charlie? (Laughter)
查理·芒格是啊。曾经的折价幅度比我们现在看到的要大。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. The discounts were once greater than we now see.
沃伦·巴菲特各位,今天就只回答这些了。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTThat's all you're going to get, folks. (Laughter)
喜诗糖果短期内不会做脱脂产品
See's Candies not going fat-free anytime soon
沃伦·巴菲特1 区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 1?
现场股东嗨,沃伦,我是彼得·纽曼,尼克和拉基的儿子。你看不到我,因为我在你极左边的位置。另外,拉基让我代她向你和苏茜问好——
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. Warren, it's Peter Newman, Nick and Racky's son. You can't see me because I'm on your hard left over here. And by the way, Racky says to send her love to you —
沃伦·巴菲特好的。
WARREN BUFFETTGreat.
现场股东——我从刚才那位问《世界百科全书》问题的人那里得到一点启发——我知道你通常不愿意干涉旗下各家公司的具体运营,因为它们自己本身就做得很好。我个人特别喜欢喜诗糖果和它们的产品,你可能知道也可能不知道,我们家有个巧克力狂,就像你家一样。
AUDIENCE MEMBER— and Susie. I'm going to take a cue from something that the guy who asked the questions about the World Book — I know you're loathe to, normally, interfere in the running of your individual corporations, because they do so well on their own. And I am particularly fond of See's Candy and their products. And you may or may not know that we have a chocoholic in our family, as you do in yours.
沃伦·巴菲特对,它做的巧克力糖浆也不错。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Makes good chocolate syrup, too. (Laughs)
现场股东对,我就不提是谁了。不过,今年圣诞节我去那店里买礼物的时候注意到,除了小拐杖糖,店里没有任何无脂产品。而整个世界正面临一股风潮——(笑声)——尤其是在甜点、冰淇淋和糖果品类里,脱脂风潮很明显。我就是想,或许该向管理层提一句,建议他们考虑扩充硬糖产品线。
AUDIENC MEMBERYeah, I won't mention who. However, when I was in there this Christmas buying some gifts, I noted that, with the exception of the little candy canes, there's nothing in that store that is fat-free. And we are facing a trend — (laughter) — in the world, especially in dessert items and ice cream and candy items, of fat-freeness. And I just thought that, perhaps, it would be a word — worth a word to management to consider expanding the hard candy line.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们考察过很多东西。其中一个问题你可能也知道,比方说,用阿斯巴甜的话,它与热量的相互作用不太理想,所以这一直有点难办。另外,我和查理在这个减重计划期间一直照常收到我们定期订的盒装糖果,而且我们——(笑声)——把它们全吃光了。糖果这东西,平均下来呢,可能每盎司一百——得看它是不是含糖产品。拿棒棒糖来说,每盎司大概 110 卡路里,但那是一根半还是一又四分之一根的量。大多数产品,每盎司都在 100 到 150 卡路里的区间。所以,糖果并不是什么特定的禁忌。如果我们能找到某种顾客喜欢、还能让他们觉得自己吃了会变瘦的东西——(笑声)——那可就是一个突破了。我们一直在寻找——凡是出现的产品我们都会测试,这点我向你保证。(笑声)事实上,我和查理可能就是最主要的测试员。喜诗糖果的负责人查克·哈金斯今天也在场,从 1972 年我们收购以来,他一直把喜诗经营得极为出色。如果你有什么想法,他都会很感激。但我们要找的东西,是既能吸引消费者、口感又好,并且他们愿意掏钱去买的东西。就和可口可乐公司在碳酸软饮料上的逻辑一样。所以,这是个永恒的研究课题。另外,你知道,起初大家对阿斯巴甜寄予厚望,但在糖果这块儿就是没成功。我还读过几篇关于无脂产品的文章,嗯,那说的应该是脂肪替代品,看完那些文章后,我对尝试它并没有多大兴趣。不过我不确定在座各位有没有读过那些文章。我们会继续寻找,彼得,感谢你的建议。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we look at a lot of things. One of the problems, as you probably know, for example, in using aspartame is it doesn't interact well with heat. And so that's been sort of tough. Now, Charlie and I have kept getting our regular boxes of candy during this weight loss-program. And we've — (laughter) — devoured them. And candy, you know, it may be, on average, a hundred and — depends on whether it’s a sugar product or not. But, take the lollipop, it'd be about 110 calories per ounce. But there’s — that's one and a half, or one and a quarter lollipops, or something like that. Most things are, you know, in that hundred per ounce to 150 per ounce range. So, candy is not a specific no-no. If we can find something that the customer likes, that makes them think they're getting skinnier by eating it — (laughter) — you know, that will be a breakthrough. And we look forward — and we test everything that comes along. I can assure you. (Laughter) In fact, Charlie and I may be the main testers. Chuck Huggins is here today — and if you’ve got any ideas on it — who runs See's. Done a terrific job of running See's ever since we took over in 1972. He'd appreciate ideas. But we are looking for things that appeal to the consumer that taste good and that they'll go for. I mean, just as is, you know, the Coca-Cola Company, in terms of carbonated soft drinks. So, it's a constant subject. And, you know, there were high hopes on aspartame originally. But it just hasn't panned out in terms of candy. And I've read a few articles about the fat-free stuff. Well, it should be the fat substitute, which didn't get me too excited about trying it. But I'm not sure whether some of you read those articles or not. We'll keep looking, Peter, I appreciate it.
GEICO 的收购价:“我们狠咽了几次口水,还是付了钱。”
GEICO's price: "We gulped a few times and paid it."
沃伦·巴菲特2 区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 2.
现场股东早上好,巴菲特先生,芒格先生。作为一名心怀向往的股东,能来到这里,我非常高兴,也很自豪。也许今天我能请芒格先生回答我的问题。关于你们收购 GEICO 剩余那一半股权,能否谈谈你们为什么愿意支付高于市价的溢价来收购,而不是直接在公开市场上买入股票?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. As an aspiring shareholder, I'm very happy and proud to be here. Maybe I can encourage Mr. Munger to respond to my question this morning. In regards to your purchase of the other half of GEICO, would you comment on your reasoning behind paying the premium above market value and why you, instead, did not purchase shares in the open market?
查理·芒格嗯,我们不可能在公开市场上按照当时的报价买下那么多股票。就我们拿到的大量股份而言,我们为它付出的价格,我们认为是非常划算的。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we couldn't have purchased very many shares in the open market at the quoted price. And the price we paid, with the large number of shares we got, we thought was a very satisfactory price.
沃伦·巴菲特对,查理所说的百分之百属实。另外,我们很多很多年前——将近 20 年前——还同意了一项限制,规定未经董事会同意,我记得还有保险监督部门的同意,我们能持有的股份数量是有限制的。所以,在 GEICO 这件事上,我们确实受到了一些特殊限制。但即使没有这些限制,我们的做法也完全一样。我们当时也不认为能用低于那个价格买到它,于是我们狠咽了几次口水,还是付了钱。而且,从事后结果来看,我认为我们会庆幸当时这么做了。GEICO 现在经营得非常好,我知道它会好起来,但目前的局面确实让我相当欣慰。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. We — what Charlie said is a hundred percent right. We also had a restriction that we agreed to many, many years ago — almost 20 years ago — as to the number of shares we would own without the consent — of the directors and, I believe, the Insurance Department. So, we actually had some special restrictions on us in the case of GEICO. But if we hadn't have had those restrictions, we'd have behaved in exactly the same manner. And we didn't think we could buy it any cheaper than that price. And we gulped a few times and paid it. And I think we will be happy that we did, as it's turning out. GEICO is doing very well. It — I mean, I knew it would do well. But I feel very good about it.
报业仍然不错,但不如从前
Newspaper business is still good, but not as good
沃伦·巴菲特第三区。
WARREN BUFFETTZone 3.
现场股东巴菲特先生,我叫大卫·洛,来自加州文图拉。这是我第一次参加伯克希尔股东大会,我想说我非常着迷于您对在座股东的影响力。我注意到,大厅里最先发完的饮料是樱桃可乐。(笑声)我的问题是关于《布法罗新闻》。您在 1995 年年报的信里说,报业的经济吸引力又下降了一个档次。能请您详细谈谈吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, my name is David Lowe (PH) from Ventura, California. My first Berkshire meeting, and I want to mention that I'm very intrigued at the influence you have over the shareholders here. I note that the first beverage they ran out of in the lobby was Cherry Coke. (Laughter) My question is about The Buffalo News. You say, in the letter for the '95 report, that the newspaper industry has lost another notch in its economic attractiveness. Can you elaborate on that?
沃伦·巴菲特好的。目前在报纸行业你看到的,是一个已经持续了很久的发行量趋势,我这里说的是每户家庭拥有的报纸数量。这一数据一直在下降,而日报——我要说,最近几年的趋势在这方面还要更差一些。我认为,无论是在发行还是广告层面,报纸的定价能力近年来都减弱了一点——虽不是急剧下降,但确实减弱了一些。曾几何时,报纸确确实实——在只有一家报纸的城市里,日报在经济特征上,可能跟你所能找到的任何生意一样具有吸引力。我是说,很大一部分广告商几乎别无选择,只能通过报纸这一媒介来投放广告。除了日报,人们了解身边事态的渠道也更少。所以,它们一开始处于一个无比强势的地位。如今它们依然拥有非常强势的地位。我在年报里也努力强调了这一点。我是说,就其售价而言,报纸绝对物超所值。它们以极低的价格提供了海量的信息。对绝大多数商家来说,报纸仍然是触达顾客的绝佳途径。但它们已经——在很多方面,它们已不再拥有 15 年或 20 年前那种排他性的优势。三级邮寄广告成了一种更常见的选择。人们获取信息的途径也更多了。就像我们之前谈到的,信息可以通过电子化处理,并以远低于 20 年前人们所能想象的成本进行分发。所以,所有这些因素都在一点点地侵蚀护城河。这依然是一门相当好的生意。但那些——我看不到任何能逆转这些趋势的因素。我也不认为这些趋势一定会加速。但我想,如果 20 年前你一生所拥有的全部就是一家独市日报,那么你今天的安全感肯定要比那时稍逊一筹。不过,比起拥有几乎其他任何生意,你还是要好得多。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. The — what you are seeing in newspapers is a circulation trend that has been prevalent for a long time, in terms of newspapers per household. But that has been declining, and that — daily newspapers — and that I would say the trends of the last couple years are somewhat worse, in that respect. I would say that the ability to price, both at the circulation and advertising level, is — has weakened a bit in recent years — not dramatically, but it's weakened a bit. At one time, newspapers really — daily newspapers in single-newspaper towns were probably as attractive, economically, as any business you could find. I mean, it — a large percentage of advertisers had very little choice, in terms of using them as an advertising medium. People had less options, in the way of learning what was going on around them other than the daily newspaper. So, the — they started from a position of extraordinary strength. They still have a very strong position. And I've tried to emphasize that in the report. I mean, they're a bargain at the price they sell for. They give you all kinds of information with very low price. And they're a magnificent way for most merchants to reach their customers. But they are not — they do not have the exclusive advantages, in many cases, that they had 15 or 20 years ago. Third-class mail has become more of an option. People have more ways of obtaining information. As we talked earlier, information can be processed electronically and delivered at far lower cost than people dreamt of 20 years ago. So, all of those things eat away a little bit. It's still a very fine business. But those — I don't see anything that will reverse those trends. I don't think that they will necessarily accelerate. But I think that, if the only thing you owned in life was a daily newspaper in a single-newspaper town 20 years ago, you would feel slightly less secure today than you did at that time. But you'd still be a lot better off than owning virtually any other business. Charlie?
查理·芒格没什么要补充的。
CHARLIE MUNGERNothing to add.
年报中的“外部信息”
"Outside information" in annual reports
沃伦·巴菲特第四区怎么样?
WARREN BUFFETTHow about zone 4?
现场股东巴菲特先生,我叫哈奇·弗农,来自马里兰州巴尔的摩。我知道您读非常非常多的年报。我很好奇您阅读这些是为了寻找什么,如果您愿意与我们分享的话。但我更好奇的是——因为我想我已经大概知道您要寻找什么——是否存在某些披露要求——还有没有进一步的披露——是您希望公司在财务报告中做出的,或者希望美国证券交易委员会(SEC)强制要求在财务报告、委托投票书或致股东的其他沟通中披露的?这个问题是同时问您和芒格先生的。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, my name is Hutch Vernon. I'm from Baltimore, Maryland. I know that you read lots and lots of annual reports. And I'm curious what you are reading for, if you would share that with us. But I'm more curious — because I think I know what you're reading for — if there are any disclosures — any further disclosures — that you would like to see companies make in their financial reporting, or that the SEC require in financial reporting or proxies or other communications with their shareholders? And that would be for both you and for Mr. Munger.
沃伦·巴菲特对。年报中最无法靠强制规定得来的东西:我非常希望能——我想尽可能多地了解经营这家公司的人,了解他们如何看待这门生意,以及公司内部究竟在发生些什么。换句话说,我希望读到的报告就如同——如果我拥有一家公司一半的股份,但我离开了整整一年,而我的合伙人持有另一半——当我回来时,他会对我通报过去一年里发生了什么,他对未来即将发生什么的预判,诸如此类的所有一切。我——这就是我认为年报应该起到的作用。当下,SEC 强制规定了海量的信息披露,而且——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. The main thing that they can't mandate in annual reports: I really like to have — I like to know as much as I can about the person that's running it and how they think about the business and what's really going on in the business. In other words, I would like to have a report that would be identical to what — if I owned half of a company but was away for a year, and I had a partner who owned the other half — when I came back, that he would tell me about what had taken place during the past year and what he foresaw coming up and all of that. I — that is what I think the purpose of the report is. Now, the SEC mandates a lot of information, and —
现场声音——边上的?
VOICE— side on?
沃伦·巴菲特——其中一些是有用的。但一份报告背后总有其意图。我的意思是,如果它是一份推销材料,那我,你知道,我的兴趣就没那么大了。我——而且——我看不出有什么办法能把我说的那种报告通过强制规定来实现。但那种报告才是我要找的。我在阅读报告时努力去做的是:首先,我喜欢对各行各业的总体动态有个大致的了解。如果我们持有某个行业里某家公司的股票,而同一行业里还有另外八家公司,我会想去订阅或者被列入那八家公司的报告邮寄名单,因为如果我不了解其他八家公司在做什么,我就没法理解我们持有的这家公司表现如何。我需要从市场份额、业务进展、利润率或利润率趋势等角度来获得视野——所有这些信息,如果我不知道同行业其他公司的动向,就无从获取——要成为一门生意的明智股东,我就得知道该行业所有其他公司的状况。所以我试图从报告中提取这些信息。如果我正在考虑投资某家具体的公司,我会努力去评估它的业务和经营它的人。这些年来,我发现大量阅读报告对于在伯克希尔做出商业决策极其有价值。即便我们全资拥有一家公司,我仍然会想持有它所有竞争对手的股份,纯粹是为了随时跟踪行业动态。我要能明智地评估我们的经理人做得如何。如果我不了解他们身处的行业背景,这一点就无从谈起。说来令人惊讶,你知道吗,单靠我所谓的“外部信息”,你在投资上就能做得很出色。我反而觉得内部信息——我不太确定那有多大用处。而外部信息——关于各种生意,相关信息遍地都是。你不需要搞懂所有的生意,你只需要弄懂你正在考虑进入的那几门生意。你完全可以做到,只要你——没有人会替你做这件事。在我看来——你没法去读华尔街的那些报告并从中得到任何东西。你得亲力亲为,把它彻底搞懂。据我所知,在 40 年的时间里,我们从未从任何一份华尔街报告中获得过一个好主意。但通过阅读年报,我们收获了大量的好主意。查理?
WARREN BUFFETT— some of that is helpful. But there's an intent behind the report. I mean, if it's a sales document I'm, you know, I'm less interested. I’m — and — I don't see any way to mandate what I'm talking about. But that's the kind of report I'm looking for. What I'm trying to do as I read reports, A, I like to understand just generally what's going on in all kinds of businesses. If we own stock in a company and in an industry, and there are eight other companies that are in the same industry, I want to own or be on the mailing list for the reports for the other eight, because I can't understand how my company is doing unless I understand what the other eight are doing. I want to have the perspective of, in terms of market share, what's going on in the business or their margins or the trend of margins, all kinds of things that I can’t get unless I know — I can't be an intelligent owner of a business unless I know what all the other businesses in that industry are doing. And so, I try to get that information out of a report. If I'm thinking about investing in a specific company, I try to size up their business and the people that are running it. And over the years, I have found reading a lot of reports to be quite useful in terms of making business decisions at Berkshire. If we own all of a business, I want to own shares in all of the competitors just to keep track of what's going on. And I want to be able to intelligently evaluate how our managers are doing that. And I can't do that unless I know the industry backdrop against which they're working. It's amazing, you know, what — how well you can do in investing, really, with what I would call outside information. I find inside information — I'm not sure how useful that is. But outside information — there's all kinds of information around, as to businesses. And you don't have to understand all of them. You just have to understand the ones that you're thinking about getting in. And you can do it, if you just — nobody will do it for you. You can't read — in my view — you can't read Wall Street reports and get anything out of them. You have to do it yourself and get your arms around it. I don't think we've ever gotten an idea, you know, in 40 years from a Wall Street report. But we've gotten a lot of ideas from annual reports. Charlie?
查理·芒格我的感觉是,就算是一家相对简单的生意,读它的年报也要花很长时间,因为如果你真的试图弄懂它,这绝不是什么轻而易举的事。
CHARLIE MUNGERWhat I find is that it takes a long time to read the annual report even if it's a comparatively simple business, because if you really are trying to understand it, it's not a bit easy.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。我想说,平均而言,对于一家我们相当感兴趣的生意,即便我们在一定程度上知道该跳读哪些内容、该细读哪些内容,我估计,看一份年报也要花上 45 分钟到一个小时。而如果一个行业里有六到八家公司,那就可能要花上六到八个小时,这还没算上它们的季报和大量其他材料——我是说,弄懂生意的途径就是不断吸收关于它们的信息,去思考,去判定哪些是重要的、哪些是无足轻重的,然后把一个事实与另一个事实关联起来。你知道,这就是我们的本职工作。你不可能通过盯着图表上那些上蹿下跳的小数字,或者去读什么市场评论、期刊杂志之类的东西来达到目的。这么做是完全行不通的。你必须搞懂这些生意。这一切都是始于生意,也终于生意。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I would say that, on average, in a business we're really interested in, even though we know what to skip, to some extent, and what to read, I mean, it's going to be 45 minutes or an hour on a report. And if there are six or eight companies in the industry, that's going to be six or eight hours, perhaps, and then their quarterlies and a lot of other — I mean, it — the way you learn about businesses is by absorbing information about them, thinking, deciding what counts and what doesn't count, relating one thing to another. And, you know, that's the job. And you can't get that by looking at a bunch of little numbers on a chart bobbing up and down about a — or reading, you know, market commentary and periodicals or anything of the sort. That just won't do it. You've got to understand the businesses. That's where it all begins and ends.
“伯克希尔绝不是一个人的独角戏”
"Berkshire is not a one-man show"
沃伦·巴菲特第五区?
WARREN BUFFETTZone 5?
现场股东巴菲特先生,我叫汉克·斯特里克兰(音),来自弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯。如果费尔法克斯算一个市的话,它会是全美第十大城市。我是作为股东来这里的。我的女儿,同时也是我的股票经纪人,今天也和我一起来了。周五晚上我们也在场,看到你在棒球赛开球前热身。我们注意到你并没有把球掉在地上,你似乎能稳稳地把球传回给帮你热身的那位搭档。我们也看到了你的第一球,说实话,我很难定义那球到底算是捕手漏接还是投手暴投。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, my name is Hank Strickland (PH). I'm from Fairfax, Virginia, which, if it were a city, would be the tenth largest in the United States. I'm here as a stockholder. And my daughter, who's also my broker, is here with me. We were also out there Friday night when we watched you warming up for the beginning of the ballgame. And we noted that you didn't drop the ball. You seemed to be able to get it to the guy that was warming you up. We noticed your first pitch, which I had difficulty characterizing as either being a passed ball or a wild pitch.
沃伦·巴菲特实际上,那是个提前下沉球。(笑声)我得补充一句,非常难打中。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt was a premature sinker, actually. (Laughter) Very hard to hit, I might add. (Laughter)
现场股东然后,你轻快地走进看台,拍了很多照片,合影,签了名,还翻过了一两个栏杆。我们非常兴奋地注意到你的健康状态。话说完了,很多人会把伯克希尔说成是一家一人公司,无意冒犯查理。而且我相信,现场很多人要么已经退休,要么半退休。不是不可想象,也许你想退休,或者——老天爷——
AUDIENCE MEMBERAnd, then, you moved spritely into the stands, did a lot of picture taking, photo opportunities, signed autographs, vaulted over a rail or two. And we noted, with great enthusiasm, your fitness. Now that all having been said, many people would characterize Berkshire as a one-man company, with all due respect to Charlie. And many of this audience here, I'm sure, are retired or semi-retired. It's not unthinkable that, perhaps, you might want to retire, or for good — God’s sakes —
沃伦·巴菲特不可想象。我可不想让那个说法蒙混过去。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt's unthinkable. I don't want that one to go by. (Applause)
现场股东或者更糟的事可能发生。对我们这些——
AUDIENCE MEMBEROr for something — something worse could happen. And for those of us —
沃伦·巴菲特那才是最糟的,我觉得——(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTThat would be the worst, I think — (Laughter)
现场股东嗯,我——
AUDIENCE MEMBERWell I —
沃伦·巴菲特我觉得死是第二糟的。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI think death would be second. (Laughter)
现场股东我能想到一些事,我们这些股东可能想做来保护我们可观的投资,比如说,从蓝筹印花时代就持有伯克希尔的人。但不管怎样,我们可以下个止损单,或者买份保险。我们可能让查理在你离开后假扮成沃伦。这些选项看起来都不太有吸引力。所以,我现在很认真。你怎么回应一个担心伯克希尔是独角戏的股东的问题?
AUDIENCE MEMBERI could think of some things some of us might want to do to protect our sizeable investments, say, having owned Berkshire since Blue Shamp — Blue Chip Stamp days. But anyway, we could put in a stop order, might take out an insurance policy. We might ask Charlie to masquerade as Warren after you've moved on. Those don't seem like very attractive options. So, I'm very serious now. How would you respond to the question of a stockholder that's really concerned about Berkshire being a one-man show?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。伯克希尔不是一个人的独角戏。在资本配置方面,是两个人的戏,目前毫无疑问。但公司由许多杰出的经理人运营,他们不需要查理或我给予任何指导就能把工作做好。不过我想说,你们知道,我基本上会持有自己所有的伯克希尔股票直到去世。然后这些股票会——根据去世的先后顺序,由家族或基金会持有很长一段时间。所以,没有人比我更关心后续的管理问题。我是说,这根本不是在我去世后就结束的事。对巴菲特家族或巴菲特基金会来说也不会结束。所以,查理和我都认真思考过这个话题。最可能的情况是——你得摆脱那种“这是一人秀”的想法,因为现在,伯克希尔有 3.3 万人在为我们工作,就在我们说话的此刻。而我坐在这里,看些关于自己的电影之类的。我是说,你们能看出我对这个地方有多重要。(笑声)所以——但问题是——除了分配资本,我们做的另一件事就是识别这些经理人。而且希望我们能让他们觉得留下来为伯克希尔工作是值得的。但这——你知道,这不需要 150 的智商或什么。它确实需要一种敏锐,去理解人们为什么愿意每天早上起床做他们正在做的事。当我不在的时候,合乎逻辑的做法是,在某个时刻——这又取决于具体什么时候发生。但查理年纪比我大一点。很可能这个职能会再次被拆分成两人分工,但不会完全像查理和我这样运作。那就是,会有一个人负责投资和资本配置。我在年报里提到了卢·辛普森的职位,因为他比我年轻,然后另一个人负责运营。我们公司现在就有这个人选。不过,我不知道我死时的情况会怎样,因为可能是 20 分钟后,也可能是 20 年后。所以,我无法具体点名。我们现在就有胜任这两个职能的人。20 年后我们也会有做同样职能的人。我不知道是不是同一个人。但这是相当合乎逻辑的运营方式。GEICO 就是这样运作的,现在仍然如此,已经好多年了。我一直觉得,财产险保险公司那种运营方式极其不合逻辑,因为它们一直被承保业务主导。而它们明明有重要的投资业务,却几乎总是——几乎所有公司都让投资屈从于承保。GEICO 多年前就非常合乎逻辑地设立了联合首席执行官制,最初是比尔·斯奈德之前,后来托尼·奈斯利负责承保端,卢·辛普森负责投资端。这是两个非常不同的职能。在大多数情况下,同一个人逻辑上并不适合同时胜任这两个职能。我是说,同一个人恰好同时擅长这两个职能,这很罕见。所以 GEICO 这样运作得很好。现在仍然如此。卢管投资,托尼管承保。伯克希尔——稍有不同——是它的变种。但本质上,在伯克希尔总部,你需要有人来监督,不过多干预,但要确保你找到了合适的经理人,并且公平对待他。运营端需要有人。投资/资本配置端也需要有人。我们现在就有这些人。而且,无论何时发生,我们也会有。这就是——这就是架构。我们有一些非常优秀的企业。你知道,没人买喜诗糖果是因为觉得我坐在奥马哈的某间办公室里。也没人买 GEICO 的保险是因为我的名字挂在那里当董事长或首席执行官。这些企业本身就很了不起。它们会继续做得非常好。到那时,资本配置的问题依然存在,就像现在一样。留住优秀经理人并公平对待他们的问题也依然存在。而这是一个可以解决的问题。所以,这就是基威特广场看到的未来。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, Berkshire is not a one-man show. It's a two-man show, in terms of capital allocation. There's no question about that, at present. But it's run by many managers that are doing an outstanding job and that don't need any guidance from Charlie or me as they go along. But I might say that, you know, I will die with all of my Berkshire stock, essentially. And that will — stock will be held, either in the family or in a foundation, depending on the order of death, for a long time thereafter. So, there's no one that's more concerned about the subsequent management issue than I. I mean, this is not something that ends, at all, on my death. And it doesn't end for the Buffett family or The Buffett Foundation. So, it's a subject that Charlie and I have both thought about. The most likely situation — you got to get away from the idea that it's a one-man show because, right now, we've got 33,000 people working for Berkshire out there, you know, as we speak. And I'm sitting around, you know, watching movies about myself or something. I mean, you can see how vital I am to the place. (Laughter) So the — but the question — And the other thing we do, besides allocate capital, is we do identify these managers. And hopefully, we make it attractive for them to stay and work for Berkshire. But that — you know, that doesn't require 150 IQ or anything to do that. It does require a certain sensitivity to why people want to get up in the morning and do what they do. And when I’m not around, the logical, at some point — it depends on exactly when it happens, again. But Charlie's a little older than I am. And it's likely that it will be broken into a two-person function again, but not exactly the way Charlie and I function. And that is that there will be someone in charge of investments and capital allocation. I mentioned Lou Simpson’s position, because he is younger than I am, in the annual report, and then someone in charge of operations. And we have that person in the organization now. Now, I don't know what the situation will be when I die, because it could be in 20 minutes or it could be in 20 years. And when that — so, I can't specifically name the individuals. We have the individuals now for both those functions. We'll have the individuals for the same functions 20 years from now. I don't know whether they'll be the same people. But it's quite a logical way to run the business. GEICO was run that way and still is run that way and has been for some years. It's always struck me as terribly illogical, the way property-casualty insurance companies are run, because they've been dominated by the underwriting side of the business. And here they have this important investment side, but it’s always been — virtually every company's been subservient to the underwriting. And GEICO, very logically, set up a co-CEO arrangement some years back where — originally Bill Snyder before that — but Tony Nicely ran the underwriting end of the business and Lou Simpson ran the investment side. And those are two very different functions. Same person, logically, doesn't fit both functions in most cases. I mean, it's a rarity when the same person happens to hit for both functions. So GEICO worked very well that way. Still works that way. Lou runs investments. Tony runs underwriting. And Berkshire — slightly different — it's a variant on it. But, essentially, at Berkshire headquarters, you need someone overseeing and not meddling in them too much, but making sure you've got the right manager and you're treating him fairly. You need someone on the operating side. You need someone on the investment/capital allocation side. We've got those people now. And we'll have them, you know, whenever it happens, too. That's the — that is the structure. And we've got some very good businesses. And, you know, nobody's buying See's Candy because they think I'm sitting in some office in Omaha. And no one's buying a GEICO insurance policy because, you know, my name is there as chairman or CEO. The businesses are marvelous businesses. They'll continue very well. And there will be a capital allocation problem then just like there is now. And there will be the problem of keeping good managers in place and treating them fairly. And that's a solvable problem. So, that's the future as seen from Kiewit Plaza. Charlie?
查理·芒格是的。如果你把所有资产在脑子里过一遍,我想你会很快得出结论,它们本身就拥有很大的惯性,即使没有我们也能做得很好。我是说,难道会因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦的某个经理死了,可口可乐就突然卖不动了吗?你知道,人们会停止使用吉列刀片吗?GEICO 会突然停止明智的运营吗?内布拉斯加家具城会少努力一点吗?所以,现有的资产,你可以说,是被精心拼凑起来的,以至于不需要总部持续的智慧。(笑声)而存在的劣势是,我认为指望继任者像沃伦过去那样善于做新投资,是不合理的。嗯,那真是太糟糕了。(笑声和掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYes. If you just run your mind through all the assets, I think you will quickly decide that there are large momentums in place that would do very well without us. I mean, is Coca-Cola going to suddenly stop selling because some manager's dead at Berkshire Hathaway? You know, are the people going to stop using Gillette razor blades? Is GEICO suddenly going to stop being intelligently run? Are — is the Nebraska Furniture Mart going to try any less hard? So, the existing assets, you can argue, have been lovingly put together, so as not to require continuing intelligence at headquarters. (Laughter) And what — there would be a disadvantage in that I think it would be unreasonable to expect that a successor would be as good at making new investments as Warren has been in the past. Well, that's just too damn bad. (Laughter and applause)
沃伦·巴菲特这边有知音啊。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTThe sympathetic ear over here. (Laughter)
巴菲特不回复个人信件
Buffett doesn't answer individual letters
沃伦·巴菲特我看看,我们现在到哪了?6 区吗?
WARREN BUFFETTLet's see, where are we? Zone 6 now?
现场股东巴菲特先生,我要感谢沃尔特·施洛斯,大约 40 年前他把我介绍给您。终于在 80 年代初,我成了股东。我的问题是,既然您把总部从 11 人扩大到了 12 人,扩张了 9%——(笑声)——现在您是否更频繁地回复股东来信了?具体来说,您看过我 1986 年 1 月的那封信吗?(笑声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, I'm indebted to Walter Schloss for introducing me to you some 40 years ago. And finally in the early '80s, I became a stockholder. My question is, now that you've expanded headquarters 9 percent from 11 people to 12 people — (laughter) — do you now more frequently answer letters from stockholders? As a specific, had you looked at my letter from January 1986? (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我们还没看到 1 月呢。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWe haven't gotten to January yet. (Laughter)
现场股东关于大都会/美国广播公司以及脱口秀电台,上个月在大都会发生的问题本来也许可以避免。
AUDIENCE MEMBERRelating to Cap Cities/ABC and talk radio, the problem that occurred last month at cape — Cap Cities might have been prevented.
沃伦·巴菲特您应该会收到我们一封格式统一的回信。不过——我们——第一,我们不介入被投资公司的各项活动。我是说,如果有人对可口可乐或吉列不满,他们其实不该不满——(笑)——但如果碰巧就是不满,他们应该自己去跟那些公司谈。我个人不会插手被投资公司的管理或运营。至于有关伯克希尔的问题——我几年前在年报里写过——光是运营伯克希尔,跟踪那么多业务,就已经占了相当多时间。其实这事本不需要花我这么多时间,但我自己乐在其中。不过——我觉得,年报和股东大会就是用来把股东心里想的所有事情都讲清楚的时候。所以,我不回复一对一的提问。我会收到各式各样的来信。有人求职业指导。有人想让我为他们的生意出主意。我是说,涌进来的信件浩如烟海。真要逐一回复这类事情,确实会占用大量本应用在伯克希尔上的时间。我可能会记下这些话题,在后续的年报中决定回应哪些。但我觉得,股东大会和年报是与股东沟通的最佳方式。一年里其他时间,我确实不做这件事,不过您还是会收到某种统一格式的回复,或者说理应收到一封统一格式的回复。
WARREN BUFFETTYou should get a form letter from us. But the — we do not — A, we do not get into the activities of our investee companies. I mean, it — if people are unhappy about Coca-Cola or Gillette, and they shouldn't be — (laughs) — but if they happen to be, they should talk to the companies themselves. I don't interject myself into the management or operations of the investee companies. In terms of questions about Berkshire — I put in the annual report a few years back — just running Berkshire takes up a fair amount of time, in terms of keeping track of a lot of businesses. And it doesn't need to take up as much time as it does with me. But I enjoy it. But the — I feel that the annual report, the annual meeting, are the time to take up everything on shareholder's minds. And so, I don't answer one-on-one questions. I get all kinds of letters. They want career guidance. They want advice on their business. I mean, there's a million letters that come in. And it would really be — it would take a significant amount of time, that otherwise would be spent on Berkshire, to reply to that sort of thing. I may note them, in terms of what I address in subsequent annual reports. But the annual meeting and the annual report, I feel, are the best ways to communicate with shareholders. And I really don't do it the rest of the year, although you will get some form reply or you should get some form reply on it.
现场股东谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERThank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。现在到中午了。我想给各位留出时间逛逛我们其他的门店什么的。不过,我们 12:15 会回到这里。
WARREN BUFFETTThanks. It's noon now. And I'd like to give everybody a chance to visit our other stores and everything. But we will be back here at 12:15.