股东手册(An Owner's Manual,1996/更新版)

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1996 年 6 月,伯克希尔董事长沃伦·E·巴菲特向公司 A 类股和 B 类股股东发布了一本小册子,题为《所有者手册*》。这本手册的目的是解释伯克希尔运营的总体经济原则。更新版内容转载于此页及后续页面。

In June 1996, Berkshire’s Chairman, Warren E. Buffett, issued a booklet entitled “An Owner’s Manual*” to Berkshire’s Class A and Class B shareholders. The purpose of the manual was to explain Berkshire’s broad economic principles of operation. An updated version is reproduced on this and the following pages.

所有者相关商业准则

OWNER-RELATED BUSINESS PRINCIPLES

1983 年蓝筹印花合并时,我写下了 13 条与所有者相关的经营原则,我认为它们能帮助新股东理解我们的管理方式。既然是“原则”,这 13 条到今天依然全部适用,我在此用斜体列出。1. 尽管我们的法律形式是公司,但我们以合伙制的心态行事。查理·芒格和我把股东视为所有者合伙人,把自己视为管理合伙人。(以我们的持股规模而言,不管好坏,我们同时也是控股合伙人。)我们不把公司本身看作旗下业务资产的最终所有人,而是把公司视作股东持有这些资产的一条通道。查理和我希望你不要以为,自己持有的仅仅是一张价格每天波动的纸片,当某些经济或政治事件让你感到紧张时,它就可以被卖掉。我们希望你把你自己想象成一家企业的部分所有者,并打算无限期地持有下去,就像你和家人合伙拥有一间农场或一栋公寓楼那样。就我们而言,我们不把伯克希尔股东看作一群永远在流动、面目模糊的投资者,而是看作共同投资者,他们很可能在余生里都把资金托付给了我们。事实表明,大多数伯克希尔股东确实接受了这种长期合伙理念。伯克希尔股票的年百分比换手率,即使把我持有的股票排除在外,也不过是美国其他大公司股票换手率的一个零头。实际上,我们的股东对待自己伯克希尔股票的方式,很像伯克希尔对待自己投资的公司那样。以可口可乐或美国运通的股东身份为例,我们把伯克希尔视为这两家卓越企业的非管理合伙人,我们用这些公司的长期进步来衡量成功,而不是以它们股票的月度涨跌来衡量。事实上,哪怕这些公司的股票好几年都没有交易、没有报价,我们也毫不在意。只要我们对长期前景有信心,短期的价格变动对我们来说就毫无意义,除非它给了我们一个以诱人价格增加持股的机会。2. 与伯克希尔以所有者为导向的方针一致,我们的大多数董事都把净资产中相当大一部分投在了公司。我们自己做的饭,自己吃。查理家人的大部分净资产投在伯克希尔股票里;我的比例则超过 98%。此外,我的许多亲属——比如我的姐妹和表亲——也把很大一部分净资产放在伯克希尔股票上。查理和我对这种所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的做法完全心安理得,因为伯克希尔本身持有种类极其丰富的、名副其实的卓越企业。事实上,我们相信,就所拥有的控股权或重大少数股权的企业质量与多样性而言,伯克希尔几乎是独一无二的。查理和我不能向你承诺结果。但我们可以保证,无论你选择做我们合伙人多长时间,你的财富都将与我们的同步变动。我们对高薪、期权或其他任何能借此占你“便宜”的手段毫无兴趣。我们只在与合伙人同时赚钱时才赚钱,而且严格按照相同的比例。此外,当我做了蠢事时,我希望你能从我遭受的财务损失与你成比例这一事实中得到些许安慰。3. 我们的长期经济目标(受制于后文提到的若干限定条件)是最大化伯克希尔每股内在商业价值的年均增长率。我们不靠规模来衡量伯克希尔的经济意义或业绩;我们以每股的进步来衡量。我们可以肯定,每股增速未来将会下降——资本基数大幅扩大必然导致这个结果。但如果我们的增速不能超过美国大公司的平均水平,我们会感到失望。4. 我们达成目标的首选路径,是直接拥有一组多元化的企业,它们能够产生现金,并且持续获得高于平均水平的资本回报。我们的第二选择是拥有类似企业的部分股权,主要通过保险子公司买入可流通普通股来实现。具体年份的资本配置,取决于企业的价格与可获得性,以及保险业务对资本的需求。

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At the time of the Blue Chip merger in 1983, I set down 13 owner-related business principles that I thought would help new shareholders understand our managerial approach. As is appropriate for “principles,” all 13 remain alive and well today, and they are stated here in italics. 1. Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership. Charlie Munger and I think of our shareholders as ownerpartners, and of ourselves as managing partners. (Because of the size of our shareholdings we are also, for better or worse, controlling partners.) We do not view the company itself as the ultimate owner of our business assets but instead view the company as a conduit through which our shareholders own the assets. Charlie and I hope that you do not think of yourself as merely owning a piece of paper whose price wiggles around daily and that is a candidate for sale when some economic or political event makes you nervous. We hope you instead visualize yourself as a part owner of a business that you expect to stay with indefinitely, much as you might if you owned a farm or apartment house in partnership with members of your family. For our part, we do not view Berkshire shareholders as faceless members of an ever-shifting crowd, but rather as co-venturers who have entrusted their funds to us for what may well turn out to be the remainder of their lives. The evidence suggests that most Berkshire shareholders have indeed embraced this long-term partnership concept. The annual percentage turnover in Berkshire’s shares is a fraction of that occurring in the stocks of other major American corporations, even when the shares I own are excluded from the calculation. In effect, our shareholders behave in respect to their Berkshire stock much as Berkshire itself behaves in respect to companies in which it has an investment. As owners of, say, Coca-Cola or American Express shares, we think of Berkshire as being a non-managing partner in two extraordinary businesses, in which we measure our success by the long-term progress of the companies rather than by the month-to-month movements of their stocks. In fact, we would not care in the least if several years went by in which there was no trading, or quotation of prices, in the stocks of those companies. If we have good longterm expectations, short-term price changes are meaningless for us except to the extent they offer us an opportunity to increase our ownership at an attractive price. 2. In line with Berkshire’s owner-orientation, most of our directors have a significant portion of their net worth invested in the company. We eat our own cooking. Charlie’s family has the majority of its net worth in Berkshire shares; I have more than 98%. In addition, many of my relatives – my sisters and cousins, for example – keep a huge portion of their net worth in Berkshire stock. Charlie and I feel totally comfortable with this eggs-in-one-basket situation because Berkshire itself owns a wide variety of truly extraordinary businesses. Indeed, we believe that Berkshire is close to being unique in the quality and diversity of the businesses in which it owns either a controlling interest or a minority interest of significance. Charlie and I cannot promise you results. But we can guarantee that your financial fortunes will move in lockstep with ours for whatever period of time you elect to be our partner. We have no interest in large salaries or options or other means of gaining an “edge” over you. We want to make money only when our partners do and in exactly the same proportion. Moreover, when I do something dumb, I want you to be able to derive some solace from the fact that my financial suffering is proportional to yours. 3. Our long-term economic goal (subject to some qualifications mentioned later) is to maximize Berkshire’s average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value on a per-share basis. We do not measure the economic significance or performance of Berkshire by its size; we measure by per-share progress. We are certain that the rate of per-share progress will diminish in the future – a greatly enlarged capital base will see to that. But we will be disappointed if our rate does not exceed that of the average large American corporation. 4. Our preference would be to reach our goal by directly owning a diversified group of businesses that generate cash and consistently earn above-average returns on capital. Our second choice is to own parts of similar businesses, attained primarily through purchases of marketable common stocks by our insurance subsidiaries. The price and availability of businesses and the need for insurance capital determine any given year’s capital allocation.

  • 版权所有 © 1996 年沃伦·E·巴菲特
  • Copyright © 1996 By Warren E. Buffett

保留所有权利

All Rights Reserved

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近年来我们完成了一系列收购。虽然会有平淡的年份,但我们预计未来几十年还会进行更多收购,而且希望规模能很大。如果这些收购的质量能接近我们过去所做的那样,伯克希尔将受益匪浅。我们面临的挑战是如何以与创造现金同样快的速度,想出好点子。在这方面,低迷的股市很可能给我们带来显著优势。首先,它往往会让整家公司出售的价格降低。其次,低迷的市场让我们旗下的保险公司更容易以有吸引力的价格,买入优秀企业的一小部分股权——包括我们已经拥有的企业的追加股份。第三,那些同样优秀的企业中,有一些会持续回购自家股票,这意味着它们和我们都能从更低的回购价格中获益。总的来说,伯克希尔及其长期股东从下跌的股市中受益,就像普通食品购买者从食品价格下跌中受益一样。所以,当市场暴跌时——这种情况时不时会发生——既不要恐慌也不要哀叹。这对伯克希尔是好消息。由于我们拥有企业的双重路径,以及传统会计的局限性,合并报表的净利润可能并不能很好地反映我们真实的经济表现。查理和我作为所有者和管理者,实际上几乎忽略这些合并数字。然而,我们也会向你汇报我们控制的每一家主要企业的盈利情况——这些数字我们认为非常重要。这些数字,连同我们提供的关于各个企业的其他信息,通常应该能帮助你做出判断。简单来说,我们试图在年报中给你提供真正重要的数字和其他信息。查理和我非常关注我们企业的经营状况,同时也努力理解每家企业所处的环境。比如,我们旗下某家企业在享受行业顺风,还是面临逆风?查理和我需要确切知道是哪种情况,并相应地调整预期。我们也会把这些结论传递给你。随着时间的推移,我们绝大多数企业的表现都超出了我们的预期。但有时也会有失望,我们会像描述那些更愉快经历一样,尽可能坦诚地告知你这些情况。当我们使用非常规指标来衡量进展时——例如,你会在我们的年报中读到保险“浮存金”——我们会努力解释这些概念以及我们为何认为它们重要。换句话说,我们相信要告诉你我们是怎么想的,这样你不仅能评估伯克希尔的企业,也能评估我们的管理和资本配置方式。会计后果不会影响我们的经营或资本配置决策。当收购成本相近时,我们远更倾向于用标准会计原则下不可报告的 2 美元盈利,而不是可报告的 1 美元盈利。这正是我们经常面临的选择,因为整家公司(其盈利将完全可报告)的售价往往是其小额股权(其盈利基本不可报告)按比例计算价格的两倍。总体来看,随着时间推移,我们预期这些未报告的盈利将通过资本利得,完全反映在我们的内在商业价值中。我们逐渐发现,我们的被投资公司未分配盈利,总体上对伯克希尔的益处不亚于它们分配给我们的那部分(因此包含在我们正式报告的盈利中)。这种令人满意的结果之所以出现,是因为我们的大多数被投资公司都从事着相当卓越的业务,这些业务往往能极其有效地运用增量资本,无论是通过投入自身业务还是回购股票。显然,我们的被投资公司做出的每一项资本决策都并非让作为股东的我们受益,但总体而言,我们获得的每一美元留存收益都带来了远超过一美元的价值。因此,我们将透视盈余视为对我们每年经营收益的现实描绘。我们谨慎使用债务。我们会拒绝有吸引力的机会,而不是过度利用资产负债表。这种保守主义损害了我们的业绩,但考虑到我们对投保人、贷款人以及那些将异常大比例净资产托付给我们的众多股东所负有的受托责任,这是唯一让我们感到安心的行为。(正如一位印第安纳波利斯 500 大赛的冠军所说:“要想第一个冲过终点,必须先完成比赛。”)查理和我采用的财务计算,绝不会允许我们用安稳的睡眠去换取多几个百分点的回报率。我从不相信,为了追求家人和朋友所没有也不需要的东西,而去拿他们拥有且需要的东西冒险。

In recent years we have made a number of acquisitions. Though there will be dry years, we expect to make many more in the decades to come, and our hope is that they will be large. If these purchases approach the quality of those we have made in the past, Berkshire will be well served. The challenge for us is to generate ideas as rapidly as we generate cash. In this respect, a depressed stock market is likely to present us with significant advantages. For one thing, it tends to reduce the prices at which entire companies become available for purchase. Second, a depressed market makes it easier for our insurance companies to buy small pieces of wonderful businesses – including additional pieces of businesses we already own – at attractive prices. And third, some of those same wonderful businesses are consistent buyers of their own shares, which means that they, and we, gain from the cheaper prices at which they can buy. Overall, Berkshire and its long-term shareholders benefit from a sinking stock market much as a regular purchaser of food benefits from declining food prices. So when the market plummets – as it will from time to time – neither panic nor mourn. It’s good news for Berkshire. Because of our two-pronged approach to business ownership and because of the limitations of conventional accounting, consolidated reported earnings may reveal relatively little about our true economic performance. Charlie and I, both as owners and managers, virtually ignore such consolidated numbers. However, we will also report to you the earnings of each major business we control, numbers we consider of great importance. These figures, along with other information we will supply about the individual businesses, should generally aid you in making judgments about them. To state things simply, we try to give you in the annual report the numbers and other information that really matter. Charlie and I pay a great deal of attention to how well our businesses are doing, and we also work to understand the environment in which each business is operating. For example, is one of our businesses enjoying an industry tailwind or is it facing a headwind? Charlie and I need to know exactly which situation prevails and to adjust our expectations accordingly. We will also pass along our conclusions to you. Over time, the large majority of our businesses have exceeded our expectations. But sometimes we have disappointments, and we will try to be as candid in informing you about those as we are in describing the happier experiences. When we use unconventional measures to chart our progress – for instance, you will be reading in our annual reports about insurance “float” – we will try to explain these concepts and why we regard them as important. In other words, we believe in telling you how we think so that you can evaluate not only Berkshire’s businesses but also assess our approach to management and capital allocation. Accounting consequences do not influence our operating or capital-allocation decisions. When acquisition costs are similar, we much prefer to purchase $2 of earnings that is not reportable by us under standard accounting principles than to purchase $1 of earnings that is reportable. This is precisely the choice that often faces us since entire businesses (whose earnings will be fully reportable) frequently sell for double the pro-rata price of small portions (whose earnings will be largely unreportable). In aggregate and over time, we expect the unreported earnings to be fully reflected in our intrinsic business value through capital gains. We have found over time that the undistributed earnings of our investees, in aggregate, have been fully as beneficial to Berkshire as if they had been distributed to us (and therefore had been included in the earnings we officially report). This pleasant result has occurred because most of our investees are engaged in truly outstanding businesses that can often employ incremental capital to great advantage, either by putting it to work in their businesses or by repurchasing their shares. Obviously, every capital decision that our investees have made has not benefitted us as shareholders, but overall we have garnered far more than a dollar of value for each dollar they have retained. We consequently regard look-through earnings as realistically portraying our yearly gain from operations. We use debt sparingly. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet. This conservatism has penalized our results but it is the only behavior that leaves us comfortable, considering our fiduciary obligations to policyholders, lenders and the many equity holders who have committed unusually large portions of their net worth to our care. (As one of the Indianapolis “500” winners said: “To finish first, you must first finish.”) The financial calculus that Charlie and I employ would never permit our trading a good night’s sleep for a shot at a few extra percentage points of return. I’ve never believed in risking what my family and friends have and need in order to pursue what they don’t have and don’t need.

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此外,伯克希尔还拥有两种低成本、无危险的杠杆来源,使我们能够安全地持有远超单纯股本所能支撑的资产:递延所得税和“浮存金”——浮存金是保险业务持有的他人资金,因为先收取保费而后才支付赔款。这两项资金来源增长迅速,目前合计约 1700 亿美元。更好的是,迄今为止这些资金通常是零成本的。递延所得税负债不计息。只要我们的保险承保能实现盈亏平衡,来自该业务的浮存金成本就是零。当然,这两者都不是权益;它们是真实的负债。但它们是既无财务约束条款、也没有到期日的负债。实际上,它们给了我们债务的好处——能让更多资产为我们工作——却完全没有债务的缺点。当然,无法保证未来我们能零成本获得浮存金。但我们认为,在保险行业中,我们实现这一目标的机会不逊于任何人。过去我们不仅实现了目标(尽管你们的董事长犯过不少重大错误),而且 1996 年收购 GEICO 也大大改善了未来达标的可能性。在我们目前的业务布局下,预计新增借款将集中在公用事业和铁路业务,这些贷款对伯克希尔不具有追索权。我们倾向于采用长期、固定利率贷款。管理层的“愿望清单”不会以股东利益为代价来满足。我们不会以控股溢价收购整家企业来实现多元化,而罔顾股东的长期经济后果。我们拿你们的钱做的事,仅限于我们也拿自己的钱会做的事,并充分权衡你们通过直接在股市投资、自行分散投资组合所能获得的价值。查理和我只对那些我们确信能提升伯克希尔股票每股内在价值的收购感兴趣。我们的薪酬或办公室大小,永远不会与伯克希尔的资产负债表规模挂钩。我们认为,高尚的意图应定期用结果来检验。我们检验留存收益运用是否明智的标准是,随着时间推移,每留存 1 美元能否至少为股东创造 1 美元的市场价值。迄今为止,这项检验已经通过。我们将继续按五年滚动期来应用这一标准。随着净资产增长,明智运用留存收益变得越来越难。“五年滚动期”那句话我本应换个写法,这个错误直到 2009 年股东大会上有人就此提问时我才意识到。当股市在五年期间大幅下跌时,我们股价相对于账面价值的溢价有时会缩小。发生这种情况时,按我当时不当的表述,我们就没有通过检验。事实上,早在 1971—1975 年,远在我 1983 年写下这一原则之前,我们就远远没有达标。五年期检验应该是:(1)在此期间,我们的账面价值增幅是否超过了标普 500 指数的表现;以及(2)我们的股价是否始终以高于账面价值交易,也就是说,每留存 1 美元是否始终价值超过 1 美元?如果这两项检验都通过,留存收益就是合理的。只有当收到的商业价值与付出的等同时,我们才会发行普通股。这条规则适用于所有形式的发行——不仅是并购或公开发行,也适用于债转股、股票期权和可转换证券。我们不会以与整个企业价值不一致的基础,出售你们公司的哪怕一小部分——发行新股本质上就是如此。1996 年发行 B 股时,我们声明伯克希尔股票并未被低估,有些人对此很震惊。这种反应并无根据。如果我们在股票被低估时还发行新股,那才应该震惊。在公开发行时暗示或明示自家股票被低估的管理层,通常要么没说实话,要么是在挥霍现有股东的钱:如果经理人蓄意以 80 美分出售实际价值为 1 美元的资产,股东就会不公平地遭受损失。我们在发行 B 股时没有犯下此类恶行,也永远不会犯。(不过,在发售当时我们并没有说伯克希尔股票被“高估”,尽管许多媒体曾报道我们说了。)你们应当充分了解查理和我所共有的一个会损害财务表现的态度:无论价格高低,我们对出售伯克希尔拥有的任何好企业都毫无兴趣。只要预计至少还能产生一些现金,并且我们对管理层和劳资关系仍感满意,我们也极不愿意出售表现欠佳的企业。我们希望不再重蹈那些导致我们陷入此类欠佳企业的资本配置错误。对于通过大规模资本支出就能让糟糕业务恢复到令人满意的盈利水平的建议,我们反应极为审慎。(预测会很诱人,提议者也真情实意,但最终,在一个糟糕的行业里进行大量额外投资,通常跟陷在流沙里拼命挣扎一样徒劳。)尽管如此,“金罗美牌”式的管理行为(每一轮都扔掉最没前途的业务)不是我们的风格。我们宁愿整体业绩因此稍受影响,也不愿采取那种做法。

Besides, Berkshire has access to two low-cost, non-perilous sources of leverage that allow us to safely own far more assets than our equity capital alone would permit: deferred taxes and “float,” the funds of others that our insurance business holds because it receives premiums before needing to pay out losses. Both of these funding sources have grown rapidly and now total about $170 billion. Better yet, this funding to date has often been cost-free. Deferred tax liabilities bear no interest. And as long as we can break even in our insurance underwriting the cost of the float developed from that operation is zero. Neither item, of course, is equity; these are real liabilities. But they are liabilities without covenants or due dates attached to them. In effect, they give us the benefit of debt – an ability to have more assets working for us – but saddle us with none of its drawbacks. Of course, there is no guarantee that we can obtain our float in the future at no cost. But we feel our chances of attaining that goal are as good as those of anyone in the insurance business. Not only have we reached the goal in the past (despite a number of important mistakes by your Chairman), our 1996 acquisition of GEICO, materially improved our prospects for getting there in the future. In our present configuration we expect additional borrowings to be concentrated in our utilities and railroad businesses, loans that are non-recourse to Berkshire. Here, we will favor long-term, fixed-rate loans. A managerial “wish list” will not be filled at shareholder expense. We will not diversify by purchasing entire businesses at control prices that ignore long-term economic consequences to our shareholders. We will only do with your money what we would do with our own, weighing fully the values you can obtain by diversifying your own portfolios through direct purchases in the stock market. Charlie and I are interested only in acquisitions that we believe will raise the per-share intrinsic value of Berkshire’s stock. The size of our paychecks or our offices will never be related to the size of Berkshire’s balance sheet. We feel noble intentions should be checked periodically against results. We test the wisdom of retaining earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each $1 retained. To date, this test has been met. We will continue to apply it on a five-year rolling basis. As our net worth grows, it is more difficult to use retained earnings wisely. I should have written the “five-year rolling basis” sentence differently, an error I didn’t realize until I received a question about this subject at the 2009 annual meeting. When the stock market has declined sharply over a five-year stretch, our market-price premium to book value has sometimes shrunk. And when that happens, we fail the test as I improperly formulated it. In fact, we fell far short as early as 1971-75, well before I wrote this principle in 1983. The five-year test should be: (1) during the period did our book-value gain exceed the performance of the S&P; and (2) did our stock consistently sell at a premium to book, meaning that every $1 of retained earnings was always worth more than $1? If these tests are met, retaining earnings has made sense. We will issue common stock only when we receive as much in business value as we give. This rule applies to all forms of issuance – not only mergers or public stock offerings, but stock-for-debt swaps, stock options, and convertible securities as well. We will not sell small portions of your company – and that is what the issuance of shares amounts to – on a basis inconsistent with the value of the entire enterprise. When we sold the Class B shares in 1996, we stated that Berkshire stock was not undervalued – and some people found that shocking. That reaction was not well-founded. Shock should have registered instead had we issued shares when our stock was undervalued. Managements that say or imply during a public offering that their stock is undervalued are usually being economical with the truth or uneconomical with their existing shareholders’ money: Owners unfairly lose if their managers deliberately sell assets for 80¢ that in fact are worth $1. We didn’t commit that kind of crime in our offering of Class B shares and we never will. (We did not, however, say at the time of the sale that our stock was overvalued, though many media have reported that we did.) You should be fully aware of one attitude Charlie and I share that hurts our financial performance: Regardless of price, we have no interest at all in selling any good businesses that Berkshire owns. We are also very reluctant to sell sub-par businesses as long as we expect them to generate at least some cash and as long as we feel good about their managers and labor relations. We hope not to repeat the capital-allocation mistakes that led us into such sub-par businesses. And we react with great caution to suggestions that our poor businesses can be restored to satisfactory profitability by major capital expenditures. (The projections will be dazzling and the advocates sincere, but, in the end, major additional investment in a terrible industry usually is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand.) Nevertheless, gin rummy managerial behavior (discard your least promising business at each turn) is not our style. We would rather have our overall results penalized a bit than engage in that kind of behavior.

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我们会继续避免金拉姆式(gin rummy behavior)行为。没错,我们在 1980 年代中期关闭了纺织业务——在与之苦苦搏斗了 20 年之后——但仅仅是因为我们觉得它注定会永无止境地亏损下去。然而,我们从未考虑出售那些能卖出天价的业务,也没有抛弃那些表现落后的部门,尽管我们会集中精力解决导致它们落后的问题。为了澄清 2016 年出现的一些混淆,我们强调,这里的评论指的是我们控股的企业,而不是可流通证券。我们会在报告中对你坦诚相告,并且强调那些对评估企业价值至关重要的利弊。我们的准则是:如果我们的角色互换,我们会想知道的那些商业事实,就告诉你。这是我们最起码该做的。此外,作为一家拥有大型传媒业务的公司,如果我们在报道自身时,采用的标准低于我们要求旗下新闻人在报道他人时所应达到的准确、平衡与深刻的标准,那是不可原谅的。我们也相信,坦诚对管理层本身是有益的:那些在公开场合误导别人的人,最终可能在私下里也误导了自己。在伯克希尔,你不会发现任何“大洗澡”式的会计手法或重组,也不会有任何对季度或年度业绩的“平滑”处理。我们会一直告诉你每一洞挥了多少杆,绝不会在比分卡上做手脚。当数字必然只是非常粗糙的“估算”时(就像保险准备金必须做的那样),我们会尽量采取既一贯又保守的方法。我们会通过几种方式与你沟通。通过年报,我会尽力在一份篇幅合理的文件中,向所有股东传达尽可能多的、对价值判断有帮助的信息。此外,我们还会在网上发布的季报中,提供大量浓缩但重要的信息,尽管这些季报并非由我执笔(一年一次长篇报告就足够了)。另一个重要的沟通场合是我们的股东大会,在那里查理和我很乐意花五个小时甚至更多时间来回答关于伯克希尔的问题。但有一种方式我们无法沟通:一对一交流。考虑到伯克希尔有成千上万的股东,这是不可行的。在我们所有的沟通中,我们都努力确保没有任何一位股东获得优势:我们不会遵循向分析师或大股东提供盈利“指引”或其他有价值信息的常规做法。我们的目标是让所有所有者同时获得信息更新。尽管我们执行坦诚的政策,但对于我们在可流通证券方面的操作,我们只在法律要求范围内进行讨论。优秀的投资想法是稀有、宝贵且容易被竞争对手觊觎的,就像优秀的产品或业务收购点子一样。因此,我们通常不会谈论我们的投资想法。这项禁令甚至延伸到我们已经卖出的证券(因为我们可能再次买入),以及那些被错误传闻我们正在买入的股票。如果我们否认那些传闻,而在其他场合又只说“无可奉告”,那么“无可奉告”本身就变成了确认。尽管我们仍然不愿谈论具体股票,但我们会自由讨论我们的商业和投资哲学。我从金融史上最伟大的老师——本·格雷厄姆——的慷慨智慧中获益良多,我认为把从他那里学到的东西传递下去是合适的,即便这会为伯克希尔创造出有能力的新的投资竞争对手,正如本·格雷厄姆的教诲曾为他所做的那样。

We continue to avoid gin rummy behavior. True, we closed our textile business in the mid-1980’s after 20 years of struggling with it, but only because we felt it was doomed to run never-ending operating losses. We have not, however, given thought to selling operations that would command very fancy prices nor have we dumped our laggards, though we focus hard on curing the problems that cause them to lag. To clean up some confusion voiced in 2016, we emphasize that the comments here refer to businesses we control, not to marketable securities. We will be candid in our reporting to you, emphasizing the pluses and minuses important in appraising business value. Our guideline is to tell you the business facts that we would want to know if our positions were reversed. We owe you no less. Moreover, as a company with a major communications business, it would be inexcusable for us to apply lesser standards of accuracy, balance and incisiveness when reporting on ourselves than we would expect our news people to apply when reporting on others. We also believe candor benefits us as managers: The CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself in private. At Berkshire you will find no “big bath” accounting maneuvers or restructurings nor any “smoothing” of quarterly or annual results. We will always tell you how many strokes we have taken on each hole and never play around with the scorecard. When the numbers are a very rough “guesstimate,” as they necessarily must be in insurance reserving, we will try to be both consistent and conservative in our approach. We will be communicating with you in several ways. Through the annual report, I try to give all shareholders as much valuedefining information as can be conveyed in a document kept to reasonable length. We also try to convey a liberal quantity of condensed but important information in the quarterly reports we post on the internet, though I don’t write those (one recital a year is enough). Still another important occasion for communication is our Annual Meeting, at which Charlie and I are delighted to spend five hours or more answering questions about Berkshire. But there is one way we can’t communicate: on a one-on-one basis. That isn’t feasible given Berkshire’s many thousands of owners. In all of our communications, we try to make sure that no single shareholder gets an edge: We do not follow the usual practice of giving earnings “guidance” or other information of value to analysts or large shareholders. Our goal is to have all of our owners updated at the same time. Despite our policy of candor, we will discuss our activities in marketable securities only to the extent legally required. Good investment ideas are rare, valuable and subject to competitive appropriation just as good product or business acquisition ideas are. Therefore we normally will not talk about our investment ideas. This ban extends even to securities we have sold (because we may purchase them again) and to stocks we are incorrectly rumored to be buying. If we deny those reports but say “no comment” on other occasions, the no-comments become confirmation. Though we continue to be unwilling to talk about specific stocks, we freely discuss our business and investment philosophy. I benefitted enormously from the intellectual generosity of Ben Graham, the greatest teacher in the history of finance, and I believe it appropriate to pass along what I learned from him, even if that creates new and able investment competitors for Berkshire just as Ben’s teachings did for him.

两条新增原则

TWO ADDED PRINCIPLES

  1. 在可能的情况下,我们希望每位伯克希尔股东在其持股期间,账面市值损益与同期公司每股内在价值的变动幅度成比例。要实现这一点,伯克希尔股票的内在价值与市场价格之间的关系需要保持恒定,而我们更希望这种关系是 1 比 1。这意味着,我们宁愿看到伯克希尔的股价处于合理水平,而非高位。当然,查理和我无法控制伯克希尔的股价。但通过我们的政策和沟通,我们可以鼓励股东做出理性、知情的决策,这反过来也会促使股票价格趋于理性。我们这种“估值过高和估值过低一样糟糕”的态度,可能会让一些股东失望。但我们相信,这能让伯克希尔最有可能吸引那些寻求从公司进步中获利、而非从合作伙伴的投资错误中牟利的长期投资者。
  2. 我们定期将伯克希尔每股账面价值的增长与标普 500 指数的表现进行比较。长期来看,我们希望跑赢这个基准。否则,我们的投资者为什么要需要我们?不过,这种衡量方式存在某些缺陷,我们将在下一节中说明。此外,现在这种比较在逐年基础上的意义已不如从前。这是因为我们的股权投资(其价值往往与标普 500 指数同步波动)在我们净资产中的占比,远低于早年。另外,在计算标普指数时,指数成份股的涨幅是全额计入的,而伯克希尔持股的涨幅因需缴纳联邦税,只能按 79% 计入。因此,我们预期在股市表现平淡的年份会跑赢标普 500 指数,而在市场大涨的年份则会跑输。

14. To the extent possible, we would like each Berkshire shareholder to record a gain or loss in market value during his period of ownership that is proportional to the gain or loss in per-share intrinsic value recorded by the company during that holding period. For this to come about, the relationship between the intrinsic value and the market price of a Berkshire share would need to remain constant, and by our preferences at 1-to-1. As that implies, we would rather see Berkshire’s stock price at a fair level than a high level. Obviously, Charlie and I can’t control Berkshire’s price. But by our policies and communications, we can encourage informed, rational behavior by owners that, in turn, will tend to produce a stock price that is also rational. Our it’s-as-bad-to-be-overvalued-as-to-be-undervalued approach may disappoint some shareholders. We believe, however, that it affords Berkshire the best prospect of attracting long-term investors who seek to profit from the progress of the company rather than from the investment mistakes of their partners. 15. We regularly compare the gain in Berkshire’s per-share book value to the performance of the S&P 500. Over time, we hope to outpace this yardstick. Otherwise, why do our investors need us? The measurement, however, has certain shortcomings that are described in the next section. Moreover, it now is less meaningful on a year-to-year basis than was formerly the case. That is because our equity holdings, whose value tends to move with the S&P 500, are a far smaller portion of our net worth than they were in earlier years. Additionally, gains in the S&P stocks are counted in full in calculating that index, whereas gains in Berkshire’s equity holdings are counted at 79% because of the federal tax we incur. We, therefore, expect to outperform the S&P in lackluster years for the stock market and underperform when the market has a strong year.

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内在价值

INTRINSIC VALUE

现在让我们聚焦于一个我之前提到过、并且在今后的年报中你还会遇到的术语。内在价值是一个至关重要的概念,它为评估投资和企业的相对吸引力提供了唯一合乎逻辑的方法。内在价值的定义很简单:它是企业在其剩余存续期内可以取出的现金的折现值。然而,内在价值的计算却没有那么简单。正如我们的定义所暗示的,内在价值是一个估计值,而不是一个精确的数字,而且如果利率变动或对未来现金流的预测有所调整,这个估计值也必须随之改变。此外,两个人面对相同的事实——即使是查理和我也不例外——几乎必然会得出至少略有差异的内在价值数值。这也是我们从不向你们提供我们对内在价值的估算值的原因之一。我们的年报所做的,是提供我们自己用来计算这个价值的事实依据。同时,我们会定期报告每股账面价值,这是一个容易计算的数字,但用途有限。其局限性并非源于我们持有的有价证券,因为这些证券在我们的账面上是按当前市价记录的。账面价值的不足之处在于我们控股的那些公司,它们在我们账面上列示的价值可能与内在价值相去甚远。这种差异可能往两边走。例如,1964 年我们可以肯定地说,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的每股账面价值是 19.46 美元。然而,这个数字大大夸大了公司的内在价值,因为公司所有的资源都捆绑在了一个利润微薄的纺织业务上。我们的纺织资产无论是作为持续经营实体还是清算价值,都不等于它们的账面价值。而今天,伯克希尔的情况反了过来:现在,我们的账面价值远远低估了伯克希尔的内在价值,这是因为我们控制的许多企业价值远高于其账面价值。尽管账面价值未能充分反映真实情况,我们仍然向你们提供伯克希尔的账面价值数据,因为今天它可以作为衡量伯克希尔内在价值的一个粗略指标——尽管明显偏低。换句话说,任何一年账面价值的百分比变化,很可能与当年内在价值的变化相当接近。你可以通过审视一种投资形式——大学教育——来深入了解账面价值与内在价值之间的差异。将教育成本视为其“账面价值”。如果这个成本要准确,它应该包括学生因为选择上大学而非工作而放弃的收入。在这个例子中,我们将忽略教育带来的重要的非经济收益,严格聚焦于其经济价值。首先,我们必须估计毕业生在其一生中会获得的收入,并从该数字中减去没有接受教育时他会赚取的估计收入。这就得出了一个超额收入数字,然后必须用适当的利率将其折现回毕业那天。这个美元结果就是教育的内在经济价值。有些毕业生会发现,他们教育的账面价值超过了内在价值,这意味着为教育买单的人没有得到相应的价值。在其他情况下,教育的内在价值会远超其账面价值,这一结果证明资本得到了明智的配置。在所有情况下,显而易见的是,账面价值作为内在价值的指标是毫无意义的。

Now let’s focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports. Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie and me – will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value. What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value. Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. The limitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather the inadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different from their intrinsic values. The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company’s intrinsic value, since all of the company’s resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. Today, however, Berkshire’s situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire’s intrinsic value, a point true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value. Inadequate though they are in telling the story, we give you Berkshire’s book-value figures because they today serve as a rough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire’s intrinsic value. In other words, the percentage change in book value in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year’s change in intrinsic value. You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job. For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education. Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.

伯克希尔的管理

THE MANAGING OF BERKSHIRE

我认为,以讨论伯克希尔的管理层——今天和未来的管理层——作为结尾是恰当的。正如我们的第一条与所有者相关的原则所述,查理和我是伯克希尔的执行合伙人。但我们把这家企业所有的重活都分包给了我们子公司的经理们。事实上,我们几乎下放权力到了弃权的程度:尽管伯克希尔约有 37.7 万名员工,总部却只有 26 人。查理和我主要专注于资本配置,以及关照和激励我们的核心经理人。这些经理人中的大多数在不受干涉、自主经营业务时最为愉快,而这通常正是我们对待他们的方式。这让他们全权负责所有运营决策,并将他们产生的多余现金上缴至总部。通过把钱交给我们,他们就不会因为要负责部署自己业务所产生的现金而被各种诱惑所干扰。此外,查理和我在投资这些资金时能接触到的可能性范围,远比任何一位经理人在其自身行业中找到的更为广阔。我们的大多数经理人都已财务独立,因此,我们有责任营造一种氛围,鼓励他们选择与伯克希尔共事,而不是去打高尔夫或钓鱼。这就要求我们必须公平地对待他们,并且以如果我们角色互换时我们所希望被对待的方式去对待他们。

I think it’s appropriate that I conclude with a discussion of Berkshire’s management, today and in the future. As our first owner-related principle tells you, Charlie and I are the managing partners of Berkshire. But we subcontract all of the heavy lifting in this business to the managers of our subsidiaries. In fact, we delegate almost to the point of abdication: Though Berkshire has about 377,000 employees, only 26 of these are at headquarters. Charlie and I mainly attend to capital allocation and the care and feeding of our key managers. Most of these managers are happiest when they are left alone to run their businesses, and that is customarily just how we leave them. That puts them in charge of all operating decisions and of dispatching the excess cash they generate to headquarters. By sending it to us, they don’t get diverted by the various enticements that would come their way were they responsible for deploying the cash their businesses throw off. Furthermore, Charlie and I are exposed to a much wider range of possibilities for investing these funds than any of our managers could find in his or her own industry. Most of our managers are independently wealthy, and it’s therefore up to us to create a climate that encourages them to choose working with Berkshire over golfing or fishing. This leaves us needing to treat them fairly and in the manner that we would wish to be treated if our positions were reversed.

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至于资本配置,那是查理和我都乐在其中且积累了不少有用经验的一项工作。大体上说,在这个领域里,白发不会拖后腿:你不需要良好的手眼协调能力或健美的肌肉来推动金钱流转(谢天谢地)。只要我们的头脑还能有效运转,查理和我就能像过去一样继续做我们的工作。我去世后,伯克希尔的股权结构会发生变化,但不会造成破坏性影响:没有任何股票需要出售来支付我的现金遗赠或税款,我的其他资产会承担这些支出。所有伯克希尔股票都会留给基金会,这些基金会大概会在十多年内按大致相等的分期方式接收这些股票。我去世时,巴菲特家族不会参与公司管理,但作为非常重要的股东,他们会在挑选和监督实际管理者方面发挥作用。管理者具体是谁,当然取决于我去世的时间点。但我可以预见到管理结构将是什么样:实质上我的工作会被分成两部分。一位高管将出任首席执行官并负责运营,投资职责则交给一位或多位高管。如果有可能收购新业务,这些高管将合作做出必要的决策,当然这需要董事会批准。我们会继续拥有一个极其关心股东利益的董事会,其利益与你们高度一致。如果我们需要立即启用我刚才描述的管理结构,董事们知道我对这两个职位的推荐人选。所有候选人目前都在伯克希尔工作或可被调动,都是我完全信任的人。我们的管理阵容从未像现在这样强大。我会继续向董事们通报继任问题的最新情况。由于伯克希尔股票将构成我的几乎全部遗产,并且在我去世后相当长时期内也会构成各类基金会资产的主要部分,你们可以放心,董事和我已经仔细考虑了继任问题,并且做好了充分准备。你们同样可以放心,我们迄今为止在管理伯克希尔时所遵循的原则,将继续指导接替我的管理者,我们异常强大且明确的企业文化将完好无损。为确保这一点,我认为在我不再担任首席执行官时,由一位巴菲特家族成员担任无薪、非执行董事会主席是明智的。不过,这一决定将由当时的董事会负责。为了避免以沉重话题收尾,我还要向你们保证,我的身体状况从未如此之好。我热爱经营伯克希尔,如果享受生活能促进长寿,那么玛土撒拉的纪录可就危险了。

As for the allocation of capital, that’s an activity both Charlie and I enjoy and in which we have acquired some useful experience. In a general sense, grey hair doesn’t hurt on this playing field: You don’t need good hand-eye coordination or well-toned muscles to push money around (thank heavens). As long as our minds continue to function effectively, Charlie and I can keep on doing our jobs pretty much as we have in the past. On my death, Berkshire’s ownership picture will change but not in a disruptive way: None of my stock will have to be sold to take care of the cash bequests I have made or for taxes. Other assets of mine will take care of these requirements. All Berkshire shares will be left to foundations that will likely receive the stock in roughly equal installments over a dozen or so years. At my death, the Buffett family will not be involved in managing the business but, as very substantial shareholders, will help in picking and overseeing the managers who do. Just who those managers will be, of course, depends on the date of my death. But I can anticipate what the management structure will be: Essentially my job will be split into two parts. One executive will become CEO and responsible for operations. The responsibility for investments will be given to one or more executives. If the acquisition of new businesses is in prospect, these executives will cooperate in making the decisions needed, subject, of course, to board approval. We will continue to have an extraordinarily shareholder-minded board, one whose interests are solidly aligned with yours. Were we to need the management structure I have just described on an immediate basis, our directors know my recommendations for both posts. All candidates currently work for or are available to Berkshire and are people in whom I have total confidence. Our managerial roster has never been stronger. I will continue to keep the directors posted on the succession issue. Since Berkshire stock will make up virtually my entire estate and will account for a similar portion of the assets of various foundations for a considerable period after my death, you can be sure that the directors and I have thought through the succession question carefully and that we are well prepared. You can be equally sure that the principles we have employed to date in running Berkshire will continue to guide the managers who succeed me and that our unusually strong and well-defined culture will remain intact. As an added assurance that this will be the case, I believe it would be wise when I am no longer CEO to have a member of the Buffett family serve as the non-paid, non-executive Chairman of the Board. That decision, however, will be the responsibility of the then Board of Directors. Lest we end on a morbid note, I also want to assure you that I have never felt better. I love running Berkshire, and if enjoying life promotes longevity, Methuselah’s record is in jeopardy.

沃伦·E·巴菲特

Warren E. Buffett

董事长

Chairman

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