1990 年伯克希尔完整年报
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
1990 年
年报
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. 1990 ANNUAL REPORT
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及其子公司从事众多不同的商业活动。其中最重要的是财产与意外伤害保险及再保险业务,通过多家子公司在全美范围内开展。各保险子公司的投资组合中包含对其他上市公司的有意义的持股比例。此外,伯克希尔·哈撒韦出版一份在纽约州北部发行的日报及周日版报纸《布法罗新闻》,同时,伯克希尔旗下多家子公司还开展与保险业务无直接关联的大量实质性商业活动。这些活动包括:Fechheimer Bros. 制服、Kirby 家用清洁系统以及 See's 优质巧克力糖果的生产与销售;还有,《世界图书》百科全书及其他参考资料的出版与发行;家居用品的零售及精品珠宝的零售。一项储蓄与贷款业务通过西科金融公司(一家公开上市且伯克希尔持股 80.1% 的子公司)的子公司,在加州帕萨迪纳开展。由伯克希尔 100% 持股的斯科特-费泽金融集团,为《世界图书》和 Kirby 产品的买家提供融资。
各伯克希尔业务单元的运营决策由各单位经理制定。伯克希尔及其子公司的投资决策及所有其他资本配置决策,由沃伦·E·巴菲特在咨询查尔斯·T·芒格后做出。巴菲特先生是伯克希尔董事会主席,芒格先生是副主席。
business activities. The most important of these is the property and casualty insurance BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. and its subsidiaries engage in a number of diverse and reinsurance business conducted nationwide through a number of subsidiaries. Investment portfolios of insurance subsidiaries include meaningful ownership percentages of other publicly traded companies. newspaper circulated in upstate New York, and a number of Berkshire subsidiaries conduct Additionally. Berkshire Hathaway publishes the Buffalo News, a daily and Sunday substantial business activities unrelated to the insurance business. These include: the and of See's fine chocolate candy; also, manufacture and distribution of Fechheimer Bros. uniforms, of Kirby home cleaning systems encyclopedias and other reference materials; the retailing of home furnishings and the the publication and distribution of World Book retailing of fine jewelry. A savings and loan business is conducted in Pasadena, California subsidiary of Berkshire. The Scott Fetzer Financial Group, 100% owned by Berkshire, by a subsidiary of Wesco Financial Corporation, a publicly traded and 80.1% owned provides financing for buyers of World Book and Kirby products. Investment decisions and all other capital allocation decisions are made for Berkshire and Operating decisions for the various Berkshire business units are made by unit managers. its subsidiaries by Warren E. Buffett, in consultation with Charles T. Munger. Mr. Buffett is Chairman and Mr. Munger is Vice Chairman of Berkshire's Board of Directors.
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
1990 年年报
目 录
公司业务活动 封二内页
与所有者相关的经营原则 2
五年间隔财务数据精选 4
董事长致股东信* 6
附录 A:本·格雷厄姆于 1936 年撰写的会计讽刺文 22
附录 B:后文将呈现的:更好的企业逻辑 26
附录 C:伯克希尔旗下业务集团 28
业务分部数据 39
管理层讨论 40
合并财务报表——未经审计 47
股东指定捐赠 54
年报函件——西科金融公司 56
过去五年财务数据精选 72
普通股数据 72
公司董事与高管 封底内页
版权所有 © 1991 沃伦·E·巴菲特
保留所有权利
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. 1990 ANNUAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS Business Activities Of The Company .................Inside Front Cover Owner-Related Business Principles... ...2 Selected Financial Data At Five Year Intervals. 4 Chairman's Letter* Appendix A: Accounting satire authored in 1936 by Ben Graham. ..22 Appendix B: later hon es ren F: Bu lur Business: .26 .28 Business Segment Data.. .39 Management's Discussion 40 ombined Financia. Statements — Unaudited - or Berkshire Business Groun • 47 Shareholder-Designated Contributions .54 Annual Report Letter - Wesco Financial Corporation... .56 Selected Financial Data For The Past Five Years .72 Common Stock Data .72 Directors and Officers of the Company Inside Back Cover copyright © 1991 By Warren E. Buffe Il Rights Reserve
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在 1983 年的年报中,某些与所有者相关的经营原则曾被列入董事长致股东信*。鉴于这些内容至今仍不过时,现将其转载于本页及下一页。
鉴于我们的新股东人数众多,有必要在此总结一下我们遵循的主要经营原则,这些原则关乎管理者和所有者之间的关系:
- 尽管我们以公司形式存在,但我们的态度是合伙制。查理·芒格和我将我们的股东视作所有者合伙人,将我们自己视作管理合伙人。(由于我们持股规模很大,无论好坏,我们也是控股合伙人。)我们并不把公司本身视为我们商业资产的最终所有者,而是将公司视为一个渠道,通过它,我们的股东拥有这些资产。
- 与这种所有者导向相一致,我们的董事都是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的主要股东。在至少四个案例中,超过 50% 的家庭净资产由其所持有的伯克希尔股票构成。我们吃自己做的饭。
- 我们的长期经济目标(受限于后文将提到的若干条件)是最大化每股内在商业价值的平均年增长率。我们不以规模来衡量伯克希尔的经济意义或表现;我们以每股的进展来衡量。我们确信,未来每股的进展速度将会下降——大幅扩大的资本基数必然会带来这一点。但如果我们的增长率未能超过美国大型公司的平均水平,我们会感到失望。
- 我们的首选是通过直接拥有一组多元化的、能够产生现金并持续获得高于平均水平的资本回报率的业务来实现这一目标。我们的次优选择是拥有类似业务的部分权益,主要通过我们的保险子公司购买可流通的普通股来实现。业务的价格和可获取性,以及保险资本的需求,决定了任意给定年份的资本配置。
- 由于这种双管齐下的业务所有权方式,以及由于传统会计的局限性,合并报告的收益可能几乎无法揭示我们真实的经济表现。查理和我,无论是作为所有者还是管理者,实际上都忽略这些合并数字。然而,我们也会向你们报告我们控制的每一项主要业务的收益,我们认为这些数字非常重要。这些数据,连同我们将提供的关于各业务的其他信息,通常应有助于你们对其进行判断。
- 会计后果不会影响我们的经营或资本配置决策。当收购成本相当时,我们更倾向于购买 2 美元根据标准会计准则无法由我们报告的收益,而不是购买 1 美元可报告的收益。这正是我们常常面临的选择,因为整个业务(其收益将全额可报告)的售价常常是其按比例计算的小部分权益(其收益大部分将不可报告)的价格的两倍。总体而言,随着时间的推移,我们期望这些未报告的收益能通过资本利得完全反映在我们的内在商业价值中。
- 我们很少使用大量债务,即使使用,我们也尝试将其构建为长期固定利率债务。我们宁愿放弃有趣的机会,也不愿过度杠杆化我们的资产负债表。这种保守主义已经对我们的业绩造成了不利影响,但考虑到我们对保单持有人、存款人、贷款人以及众多将异常大比例净资产托付给我们照管的权益持有人所负有的受托责任,这是唯一让我们感到安心的行为方式。(正如一位印第安纳波利斯“500”大赛的获胜者所说:“要想第一个完赛,你必须先完赛。”)
- 版权所有 © 1984 沃伦·E·巴菲特
保留所有权利
Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in the 1983 Annual Report. Because the material remains topical, Certain OWNER-RELATED BUSINESS PRINCIPLES were included in the Chairman's letter* to it is reproduced on this and the following page. that pertain to the manager-owner relationship: With so many new shareholders, it's appropriate to summarize the major business principles we follow shareholders as owner-partners, and of ourselves as managing partners. (Because of the size of our • Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership. Charlie Munger and I think of our shareholdings we also, are, for better or worse, controlling partners.) We do not view the company itself as the ultimate owner of our business assets but, instead, view the company as a conduit through which our shareholders own the assets. the case of at least four, over 50% of family net worth is represented by holdings of Berkshire. We eat our • In line with this owner-orientation, our directors are major shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In own cooking. average annual rate of gain in intrinsic business value on a per-share basis. We do not measure the economic • Our long-term economic goal (subject to some qualifications mentioned later) is to maximize the significance or performance of Berkshire by its size; we measure by per-share progress. We are certain that the rate of per-share progress will diminish in the future - a greatly enlarged capital base will see to that. But we will be disappointed if our rate does not exceed that of the average large American corporation. generate cash and consistently earn above-average returns on capital. Our second choice is to own parts of • Our preference would be to reach this goal by directly owning a diversified group of businesses that similar businesses, attained primarily through purchases of marketable common stocks by our insurance subsidiaries. The price and availability of businesses and the need for insurance capital determine any given year's capital allocation. conventional accounting, consolidated reported earnings may reveal relatively little about our true economic • Because of this two-pronged approach to business ownership and because of the limitations of performance. Charlie and 1, both as owners and managers, virtually ignore such consolidated numbers. of great importance. These figures, along with other information we will supply about the individual However, we will also report to you the earnings of each major business we control, numbers we consider businesses, should generally aid you in making judgments about them. acquisition costs are similar, we much prefer to purchase $2 of earnings that is not reportable by us under • Accounting consequences do not influence our operating or capital-allocation decisions. When that often faces us since entire businesses (whose earnings will be fully reportable) frequently sell for double standard accounting principles than to purchase $1 of earnings that is reportable. This is precisely the choice the pro-rata price of small portions (whose earnings will be largely unreportable). In aggregate and over time, we expect the unreported earnings to be fully reflected in our intrinsic business value through capital gains. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet. This conservatism has • We rarely use much debt and, when we do, we attempt to structure it on a long-term fixed-rate basis. penalized obligations to policyholders, depositors, lenders and the many equity holders who have committed unusually our results but it is the only behavior that leaves us comfortable, considering our fiduciary large portions of their net worth to our care. (As one of the Indianapolis "500" winners said: "To finish first, you must first finish.")
- Copyright © 1984 by Warren E. Buffett
All Rights Reserved 2
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我们不会为了实现多元化而收购整家企业,却无视这种控制权收购价格对股东造成的长期经济后果。我们不会用你们的钱去填管理层的“愿望清单”。我们只会以对待自己资金的态度来对待你们的资金,充分权衡你们通过直接参与股票市场、自行分散投资组合所能获得的价值。
我们觉得,良好的初衷应该定期用结果来检验。我们检验留存收益是否明智,看的是每留存 1 美元,随着时间的推移,能否至少为股东创造 1 美元的市场价值。迄今为止,这项检验已经达标。我们将继续以五年为滚动周期应用这一标准。随着公司净资产的增长,明智运用留存收益会变得越来越难。
我们只在获得等值商业价值时,才会发行普通股。这条规则适用于所有形式的股份发行——不仅仅是并购或公开募股,也包括债转股、股票期权和可转换证券。我们不会在与整体企业价值不相称的基础上,出售你们公司的一小部分——而发行股票本质上就是这么回事。
你们应当充分了解查理和我共有的一个态度,这个态度损害了我们的财务表现:无论价格如何,我们完全无意卖出伯克希尔所持有的任何一家优质企业;而对于那些不那么出色的企业,只要我们预期它们至少还能产生一些现金,并且我们对管理者和劳资关系感到满意,我们也极不情愿将其出售。我们希望不再重蹈那些让我们陷入此类劣质企业的资本配置错误。对于那种认为大规模资本支出就能让糟糕业务恢复合理盈利能力的建议,我们反应极为审慎。(预测会做得很炫目,鼓吹者也会很真诚——但归根结底,在一个糟糕的行业里追加巨额投资,通常就像在流沙里挣扎一样,收效甚微。)尽管如此,像打金拉米(gin rummy)纸牌那样,每轮都打出最没前途的业务,这种管理风格并非我们的作风。我们宁愿让整体业绩稍微吃点亏,也不愿做那种事。
我们在向你们报告时,将坦诚相待,着重说明对评估企业价值至关重要的正面与负面事实。我们的准则是:如果角色互换,我们会希望获知什么样的商业事实,我们就告诉你们什么。我们亏欠你们的,至少该有这个水平。此外,作为一家拥有重要传媒业务的公司,如果在报道我们自己时,我们在准确性、平衡性和洞察力上采用的标准,比要求旗下新闻人员在报道他人时所采用的标准更低,那将是不可原谅的。我们也相信,坦诚对我们管理者自身有利:一个在公开场合误导他人的首席执行官,最终可能会误导他自己。
尽管我们奉行坦诚的政策,但在讨论可流通证券方面的操作时,我们将只以法律要求披露的范围为限。好的投资想法,就像好的产品或企业收购想法一样,十分稀缺、宝贵,并且容易被竞争对手抢占。因此,我们通常不会谈论自己的投资想法。这条自我约束的规定,甚至延伸到了我们已经卖出的证券(因为我们可能再次买入),以及被市场误传为我们正在买入的股票。如果我们在有人传言时出面否认,而在其他时候却说“无可奉告”,那么“无可奉告”也便成了实锤。
entire businesses at control prices that ignore long-term economic consequences to our shareholders. We • A managerial "wish list" will not be filled at shareholder expense. We will not diversify by purchasing will only do with your money what we would do with our own, weighing fully the values you can obtain by diversifying your own portfolios through direct purchases in the stock market. earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each • We feel noble intentions should be checked periodically against results. We test the wisdom of retaining net worth grows, it is more difficult to use retained earnings wisely. $1 retained. To date, this test has been met. We will continue to apply it on a five-year rolling basis. As our applies to all forms of issuance - not only mergers or public stock offerings, but stock-for-debt swaps, stock • We will issue common stock only when we receive as much in business value as we give. This rule options, and convertible securities as well. We will not sell small portions of your company - and that is what the issuance of shares amounts to - on a basis inconsistent with the value of the entire enterprise. regardless of price, we have no interest at all in selling any good businesses that Berkshire owns, and are • You should be fully aware of one attitude Charlie and I share that hurts our financial performance: long as we feel good about their managers and labor relations. We hope not to repeat the capital-allocation very reluctant to sell sub-par businesses as long as we expect them to generate at least some cash and as poor businesses can be restored to satisfactory profitability by major capital expenditures. (The projections mistakes that led us into such sub-par businesses. And we react with great caution to suggestions that our will be dazzling - the advocates will be sincere - but, in the end, major additional investment in a terrible behavior (discard your least promising business at each turn) is not our style. We would rather have our industry usually is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand.) Nevertheless, gin rummy managerial overall results penalized a bit than engage in it. appraising business value. Our guideline is to tell you the business facts that we would want to know if • We will be candid in our reporting to you, emphasizing the pluses and minuses important in business, it would be inexcusable for us to apply lesser standards of accuracy, balance and incisiveness when our positions were reversed. We owe you no less. Moreover, as a company with a major communications reporting on ourselves than we would expect our news people to apply when reporting on others. We also believe candor benefits us as managers: the CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself legally required. Good investment ideas are rare, valuable and subject to competitive appropriation just as • Despite our policy of candor, we will discuss our activities in marketable securities only to the extent good product or business acquisition ideas are. Therefore, we normally will not talk about our investment ideas. This ban extends even to securities we have sold (because we may purchase them again) and to stocks we are incorrectly rumored to be buying. If we deny those reports but say "no comment" on other occasions,
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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
(单位:千美元,每股数据除外)
五年间隔财务数据选摘
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
收入:
已赚保费 $ 49,301
销售及服务收入 $ 24,569 39,173 $ 32,833 $ 185,187 300,837
投资收益 58,336 317,059 504,872 $ 1,580,074 591,540
已实现投资收益(亏损) 3,077 $ 67,280 58 (2,888) 8,493 31,111 $ 597,082 14,706 495,055 95,422 335,930
总收入 $ 49,301 $ 97,486 $ 1,463,638 33,989 2,659,472
收益(亏损):
已实现投资收益(亏损) $ 2,279 $ 4,507 58 $ (2,022) 6,714 43,215 $ 9,907 342,867 92,948 $ 370,745 23,348
已实现投资收益(亏损)前净收益 $ 53,122 $ 435,815 $ 394,093
净收益 $ 2,279 $ 4,565 4,692
每股收益(亏损):
已实现投资收益(亏损)前 $ 2.24 $ 0.06 4.60 $ (2.06) 6.85 $ 42.07 9.65 $ 298.95 81.04 $ 323.39 20.36
已实现投资收益(亏损)
净收益 $ 2.24 $ 4.66 4.79 $ 51.72 $ 379.99 $ 343.75
年末数据:
总资产 $ 28,222 $ 113,212 $ 225,741 $ 1,309,066 $ 3,480,789 $ 10,670,423
定期债务及其他借款 92,890 180,251 395,214 1,885,330
股东权益 24,520 48,483 5,891 117,879 5,287,454 1,239,358
发行在外普通股(千股) 1,017 980 980 986 1,147 1,146
每股股东权益 $ 24 $ 49 $ 95 $ 401 $ 1,644 $ 4,612
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. (dollars in thousands, except per share amounts) Selected Financial Data at Five Year Intervals 1965 1970 1975 1980_
- 1985
1990 Revenues: Insurance premiums earned Sales and service revenues. $ 49,301 $ 24,569 39,173 $ 32,833 $ 185,187 300,837 $ Investment income, 58,336 317,059 504.872 $ 1,580,074 591,540 Realized investment gain (loss) insurance group 3,077 $ 67,280 58 (2,888) 8,493 31,111 $ 597,082 14,706 495,055 95,422 335,930 Total revenues... Earnings (loss): $ 49.301 $ 97,486 $1,463,6.38 33,989 2 2,659.472 Realized investment gain (loss) Before realized investment gain $ 2,279 $ 4,507 58 $ (2.022) 6,714 43,215 $ 9,907 342,867 92,948 $ 370,745 23.348 Net earnings Earnings (loss) per share: $ 2.279 $ 4.565 4,692 $ 53,122 $ 435,815 $ 394,093 Before realized investment gain Realized investment gain (loss) $ 2.24 $ 0.06 4.60 $ (2.06) 6.85 $ 42.07 9.65 $ 298.95 81.04 $ 323.39 20.36 Net earnings $ 2.24 $ 4.66 4.79 $ 51.72 $ 379.99 $ Year-end data: 343.75 Total assets.. Term debt and other borrowings $ 28.222 $113,212 Shareholders' equity 24,520 48,483 5,891 $225,741 92,890 24,108 $1,309,066 180,251 $3,480,789 $10,670,423 395,214 1,885,330 117,879 5,287,454 1,239,358 Common shares outstanding. mareholders equity p I thousands. 1.017 980 980 986 1,147 1,146 outstanding share. $24 $49 $95 $401 $1,644 $4.612_ 4
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:
去年我们做过一项预测:“(伯克希尔的净资产)在至少未来三年中的某一年,几乎肯定会下降。”在 1990 年下半年的大部分时间里,我们正沿着一条快速验证这一预测的路在走。但年底股价有所走强,让我们得以在 1990 年结束时净资产增加 3.62 亿美元,即 73%。过去 26 年(即自现任管理层接手以来),我们每股账面价值从 19.46 美元增长到 4,612.06 美元,年复合增长率 23.2%。
我们 1990 年的增长率乏善可陈,因为我们的四大普通股持仓市值整体几乎没什么变化。去年我告诉过你们,这些公司——大都会/美国广播公司(Capital Cities/ABC)、可口可乐、GEICO 和《华盛顿邮报》——虽然拥有出色的业务和卓越的管理层,但市场对这些优点的广泛认可已将其股价推至过高水平。此后,两家媒体公司的股价大幅下跌——原因与行业格局演变有关,我认为这些理由是合理的——而可口可乐的股价则大幅上涨——原因我也认为是合理的。总的来说,我们“永久四股”在 1990 年底的价格,虽然远谈不上诱人,但比一年前略微更有吸引力了。
伯克希尔 26 年的记录对于预测未来结果毫无意义;同样,我们也希望一年的记录毫无意义。我们仍以内在价值年均增长 15% 为目标。但正如我们反复向你们强调的,随着我们的权益资本(目前为 53 亿美元)不断增大,这一目标变得越来越难以实现。
如果我们确实实现 15% 的平均增长,我们的股东理应获得不错的回报。然而,伯克希尔公司层面的盈利增长,只有在某位特定股东最终以相对于内在价值的溢价卖出其股票时,才会给他带来与公司完全相同的收益——前提是:内在价值随后以每年 15% 的速度增长,并且你卖出时股价与内在价值的关系和买入时相同。例如,如果你以相对于内在价值 10% 的溢价买入,那么你自己的回报率也将相应地为年复合 15%。(上述计算假设不派发股息。)但如果你以溢价买入、却以较小的溢价卖出,你的结果将比公司本身的成绩逊色一筹。
理想情况下,每位伯克希尔股东的财富变动都应与其持股期间公司的业绩表现高度一致。这就是为什么伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格,以及我本人,希望伯克希尔的股价能始终在接近内在价值的水平上交易。相比过去两年那种无视价值的剧烈波动,我们更偏好这种稳定:1989 年,内在价值的增长低于账面价值(账面价值增长 44%,而股价上涨 85%);1990 年,账面价值和内在价值均小幅增长,而股价却下跌了 23%。
伯克希尔的内在价值仍大幅超过账面价值。我们无法告诉你们确切的差额,因为内在价值必然是一种估算;事实上,查理和我对此的评估可能存在着 10% 的差异。但我们确实知道,我们拥有一些极为出色的企业,其价值远超它们在账面上记载的数值。
我们业务中存在的相当一部分额外价值,是由现在负责运营的管理者们创造的。查理和我可以毫无愧色地夸耀这一群体,因为培养他们这些卓越技能跟我们完全没有关系:这些超级明星生来就是如此。我们的工作仅仅是识别有才华的管理者,并为他们创造一个能够大展拳脚的环境。他们干完活之后,把钱送到总部,这时我们才面临我们唯一的另一项任务:聪明地配置这些资金。
我本人在公司日常运营中的角色,或许可以用一个关于我孙女艾米丽的小故事来恰到好处地说明。去年秋天,艾米丽举办了一场四岁生日会。参加聚会的有其他小朋友、宠爱她的亲戚,还有小丑比默——一位当地表演者,他的节目里包含魔术。
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: one of the next three years." During much of 1990's second half, we were on the road to quickly proving Last year we made a prediction: "A reduction [in Berkshire's net worth] is almost certain in at least that forecast accurate. But some strengthening in stock prices late in the year enabled us to close 1990 with net worth up by $362 million, or 73%. Over the last 26 years (that is, since present management took over) our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $4,612.06, or at a rate of 23.2% compounded showed little change in market value. Last year I told you that though these companies - Capital Our growth rate was lackluster in 1990 because our four major common stock holdings, in aggregate, widespread recognition of these attributes had pushed the stock prices of the four to lofty levels. The market Cities/ABC, Coca-Cola, GEICO, and Washington Post - had fine businesses and superb managements, industry developments that I will discuss later — and the price of Coca-Cola stock has increased significantly prices of the two media companies have since fallen significantly - for good reasons relating to evolutionary from enticing, were a bit more appealing than they were a year earlier. for what I also believe are good reasons. Overall, year-end 1990 prices of our "permanent four," though far record. We continue to aim for a 15% average annual gain in intrinsic value. But, as we never tire of telling Berkshire's 26-year record is meaningless in forecasting future results; so also, we hope, is the one-year you, this goal becomes ever more difficult to reach as our equity base, now $5.3 billion, increases. gains will produce an identical gain for a specific shareholder only if he eventually sells his shares at the If we do attain that 15% average, our shareholders should fare well. However, Berkshire's corporate premium to intrinsic value; if intrinsic value subsequently grows at 15% a year; and if you then sell at a same relationship to intrinsic value that existed when he bought them. For example, if you buy at a 10% no dividends are paid.) If, however, you buy at a premium and sell at a smaller premium, your results will 10% premium, your own return will correspondingly be 15% compounded. (The calculation assumes that be somewhat inferior to those achieved by the company. his period of ownership. That is why Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman and my partner, and I Ideally, the results of every Berkshire shareholder would closely mirror those of the company during ignoring volatility of the past two years: In 1989 intrinsic value grew less than did book value, which was hope for Berkshire to sell consistently at about intrinsic value. We prefer such steadiness to the value- amount, while the market price fell 23%. up 44%, while the market price rose 85%; in 1990 book value and intrinsic value increased by a small Berkshire's intrinsic value continues to exceed book value by a substantial margin. We can't tell you the exact differential because intrinsic value is necessarily an estimate; Charlie and I might, in fact, differ considerably more than the values at which they are carried on our books. by 10% in our appraisals. We do know, however, that we own some exceptional businesses that are worth them. Charlie and I feel free to brag about this group because we had nothing to do with developing the Much of the extra value that exists in our businesses has been created by the managers now running and provide an environment in which they can do their stuff. Having done it, they send their cash to skills they possess: These superstars just came that way. Our job is merely to identify talented managers headquarters and we face our only other task: the intelligent deployment of these funds. and her fourth birthday party last fall. Attending were other children, adoring relatives, and Beemer the My own role in operations may best be illustrated by a small tale concerning my granddaughter, Emily, Clown, a local entertainer who includes magic tricks in his act.
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奇迹。"绿色手帕放进了盒子里,艾米莉挥动魔杖,比默取出了蓝色手帕。如此进行了四次,每一次的转变都比前一次更令人惊叹,艾米莉简直无法自持。她容光焕发,兴高采烈地叫道:"哇,我真是太擅长这个了。"
而这,恰好总结了我对伯克希尔商业魔术师们——布拉姆金家族、弗里德曼家族、迈克·戈德伯格、赫尔德曼家族、查克·哈金斯、斯坦·利普西和拉尔夫·谢伊——的贡献。他们值得你们的掌声。
报告收益来源
下表显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在本表中,商誉摊销及其他主要的购买价格会计调整不再计入它们所适用的特定业务,而是汇总后单独列示。这一做法让你可以看到我们业务的收益,就好像我们从未收购它们时会报告的数字一样。我在过去的报告中解释过,为什么我们认为这种列示形式比采用公认会计准则(GAAP)的方式对投资者和管理者更有用,因为 GAAP 要求在各项业务的基础上进行购买价格调整。当然,表中显示的净利润总额与我们经审计财务报表中的 GAAP 总额完全相同。
关于这些业务的更多信息,请见第 39—46 页,你还可以在那里找到我们按 GAAP 口径报告的部门收益。关于西科金融的业务信息,我强烈建议你阅读查理·芒格从第 56 页开始的致股东信。他的信中还包含了我所见过的最清晰、最有洞察力的银行业讨论。
(千美元省略)
| 伯克希尔份额(税后及少数股东权益后) | 税前收益 | 净利润 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 年 | 1989 年 | 1990 年 | 1989 年 | |
| 经营利润: | ||||
| 保险集团: | ||||
| 承保 | $ (26,647) | $ (24,400) | $ (14,936) | $ (12,259) |
| 净投资收益 | $ 243,599 | $ 327,047 | $ 213,642 | $ 282,613 |
| 《布法罗新闻》 | $ 43,954 | $ 46,047 | $ 25,981 | $ 27,771 |
| 费希海默 | $ 12,450 | $ 12,621 | $ 6,605 | $ 6,789 |
| 科比 | $ 17,248 | $ 17,070 | $ 8,485 | $ 8,441 |
| 内布拉斯加家具城 | $ 27,445 | $ 26,114 | $ 16,803 | $ 16,372 |
| 喜诗糖果 | $ 30,378 | $ 39,580 | $ 20,626 | $ 33,165 |
| 斯科特-费泽制造集团 | $ 17,248 | $ 17,070 | $ 8,485 | $ 8,441 |
| 西科金融- 保险除外 | $ 12,441 | $ 34,235 | $ 9,676 | $ 20,420 |
| 世界图书 | $ 31,896 | $ 13,008 | $ 20,420 | $ 9,810 |
| 商誉摊销 | $ (3,476) | $ (3,387) | $ (3,461) | $ (3,372) |
| 其他购买价格会计调整 | $ 25,583 | $ (5,951) | $ (5,740) | $ (5,867) |
| 股东指定捐款 | $ (76,374) | $ (49,726) | $ (27,098) | $ (6,668) |
| 利息费用* | $ (5,824) | $ (6,856) | $ (3,801) | $ (3,814) |
| 其他 | $ 482,477 | $ 393,414 | $ 35,782 | $ 23,755 |
| 经营利润 | $ 516,466 | $ 370,745 | $ 299,902 | $ 223,810 |
| 证券出售 | $ 33,989 | $ 394,093 | $ 23,348 | $ 147,575 |
| 所有实体总收益 | $ 617,224 | $ 447,477 | $ 394,093 | $ 447,477 |
*不包括斯科特-费泽金融集团和互助储蓄与贷款公司的利息费用。
wonders." Green handkerchiefs went into the box, Emily waved the wand, and Beemer removed blue ones. Beginning these, Beemer asked Emily to help him by waving a "magic wand" over "the box of transformations, each more amazing than its predecessor, Emily was unable to contain herself. Her face Loose handkerchiefs went in and, upon a magisterial wave by Emily, emerged knotted. After four such aglow, she exulted: "Gee, I'm really good at this." And that sums up my contribution to the performance of Berkshire's business magicians - the Blumkins, the Friedman family, Mike Goldberg, the Heldmans, Chuck Huggins, Stan Lipsey and Ralph Schey. They deserve your applause. Sources of Reported Earnings amortization of Goodwill and other major purchase-price accounting adjustments are not charged against The table below shows the major sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. managers than one utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-price I've explained in past reports why this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and adjustments to be made on a business-by-business basis. The total net earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements. our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. For information on Wesco's businesses, I urge you to read Much additional information about these businesses is given on pages 39 - 46, where you also will find Charlie Munger's letter, which starts on page 56. His letter also contains the clearest and most insightful discussion of the banking industry that I have seen. (000s omitted) Berkshire's Share (after taxes and of Net Earnings Pre-Tax Earnings 1990 1989 1990 minority interests) 1989 Operating Earnings: Insurance Group: Underwriting. Buffalo News. Net Investment Income $ (26,647) $ (24,400) $ 243,599 (14,936) $ (12,259) 327,047 Fechheimer. ...• 43,954 46,047 282,613 25,981 213,642 Kirby.... ... Nebraska Furniture Mart .... 27,445 12,450 26,114 12,621 6,605 27,771 6,789 17,613 16,803 See's Candies Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group ..•• ..•• 17,248 17,070 8,485 8,441 30,378 39,580 33,165 23,892 18,458 19,996 Wesco - other than Insurance. .•.• 12,441 34,235 20,626 World Book •••• 31,896 13,008 20,420 9,676 16,372 9,810 Amortization of Goodwill •••• Other Purchase-Price Accounting Charges.. • ... (3,476) 25,583 (76,374) (5,951) (3,387) (3,461) (3,372) (5,740) (49,726) (6,856) (27,098) (6,668) Shareholder-Designated Contributions Interest Expense*... ..•. (5,824) (42,389) Other... 482,477 58,310 23,755 (5,867) 35,782 (3,801) 12,863 (3,814) Operating Earnings. Sales of Securities. $ 516,466 33,989 393,414 370,745 299,902 $ 617,224 223,810 $ 394,093 23,348 $ 447,477 147,575 Total Earnings - All Entities *Excludes interest expense of Scott Fetzer Financial Group and Mutual Savings & Loan. 6
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这跟查理和我看待企业的方式一致,也应该能帮助你更好地估算伯克希尔的内在价值。我们也建议你翻到第 47–53 页,在这几页里,我们把伯克希尔的财务数据重新编排成了四个部分。这些页面列示的是如下四个板块的资产负债表和盈利报表:(1)我们的保险业务,其各项大额投资头寸已逐项列明;(2)我们的制造业、出版业和零售业,不含某些非经营性资产和并购价格会计调整;(3)我们从事金融类业务的子公司,即互助储蓄和斯科特-费泽金融;以及(4)一个“所有其他”类别,包含第(2)板块内公司持有的非经营性资产(主要是可流通证券)、所有并购价格会计调整,以及西科金融和伯克希尔母公司名下的各种资产与债务。如果你把这四个板块的收益和净资产加总,会得到与我们 GAAP 报表一致的总数。不过我想强调,这种四分法的列示并不在审计师的审阅范围内,他们对此绝不背书。
透视盈余
“盈利”这个词听起来十分精确。而且,当一项盈利数字附带无保留意见的审计报告时,天真的读者可能会以为它的确定性堪与圆周率(pi)相提并论,可以精确到小数点后几十位。然而在现实中,当一家公司的当家人是个江湖骗子时,盈利可以像油灰一样被任意揉捏。真相最终会浮出水面,但在此期间,大量资金可能已经完成换手。事实上,美国一些相当可观的财富,正是靠把会计幻象货币化而创造出来的。
会计上的花样从来不是什么新鲜事。对于喜爱钻研骗术的人,我在第 22 页附上了一篇附录——这是本·格雷厄姆在 1936 年写的一篇此前未曾发表、专门讽刺会计实务的文章。可惜的是,他当年嘲讽的那些过分做法,在此后几十年间多次堂而皇之地出现在美国大公司的财务报表里,并且还拿到了赫赫有名的审计师的正式认证。显而易见,投资者在尝试计算真正属于自己的“经济利润”时,必须时刻保持警觉,把会计数字仅作为起点,而不是终点。
伯克希尔自身报告的盈利,在另一种不同却又十分重要的意义上也带有误导性:我们在一些公司(被投资企业)中持有巨额投资,这些被投资企业的盈利远超其派发的股息,而我们只按实际收到的股息确认我们享有的盈利份额。最极端的例子是大都会/美国广播公司。去年,我们持有该公司 17% 的股份,这部分股权所对应的盈利超过 8300 万美元。然而,反映在伯克希尔 GAAP 盈利中的,却只有大约 53 万美元(它支付给我们的 60 万美元股息减去约 7 万美元的税款)。剩下的 8200 多万美元则留在了大都会,作为留存收益,继续为我们创造价值,但在我们的账面上却毫无痕迹。
对于这些“被遗忘却并未消失”的盈利,我们的看法很简单:它们如何被记账无关紧要,它们由谁拥有、以及随后被如何运用,才真正重要。我们不在意一棵树在森林里倒下时审计师有没有听见;我们在意的是这棵树归谁所有,以及接下来人们会拿它做什么。
当可口可乐用留存收益回购股票时,公司就增大了我们在这份我心目中全球最具价值经济特许权中的持股比例。(当然,可口可乐也在用留存收益做许多其他提升价值的动作。)可口可乐也可以不回购股票,而是把那部分钱用股息发给我们,然后我们再去买更多的可口可乐股票。这会是一种效率较低的方案:由于我们要为股息收入缴税,我们就无法像可口可乐替我们操作的那样,实现同等幅度的所有权比例提升。然而,如果采用这种效率较低的方案,伯克希尔报表上列报的“盈利”反倒会高出很多。
我认为思考我们盈利的最佳方式是看“透视盈余”口径的数字,计算方法如下:先取 2.5 亿美元,这大致是我们 1990 年按比例享有的、被投资企业当年留存下来的经营利润;再减去 3000 万美元,这是假设这 2.5 亿美元已作为股息派发给我们时,我们本应为此额外缴纳的税款;然后把剩下的 2.2 亿美元,加到我们报告的 3.71 亿美元经营利润之上。由此得出,我们 1990 年的“透视盈余”大约是 5.9 亿美元。
These correspond to the way Charlie and I think about the business and should help you more in estimating We refer you also to pages 47 - 53, where we have rearranged Berkshire's financial data into four segments. Berkshire's intrinsic balance sheets and earnings statements for: (1) our insurance operations, with their major investment value than consolidated figures would do. Shown on these pages are positions itemized; (2) our manufacturing, publishing and retailing businesses, leaving aside certain non- operations, which are Mutual Savings and Scott Fetzer Financial; and (4) an all-other category that includes operating assets and purchase-price accounting adjustments; (3) our subsidiaries engaged in finance-type the non-operating assets (primarily marketable securities) held by the companies in segment (2), all purchase- price accounting adjustments, and various assets and debts of the Wesco and Berkshire parent companies. those shown on our GAAP statements. However, I want to emphasize that this four-category presentation If you combine the earnings and net worths of these four segments, you will derive totals matching does not fall within the purview of our auditors, who in no way bless it. "Look-Through" Earnings unqualified auditor's certificate, a naive reader might think it comparable in certitude to pi, calculated to The term "earnings" has a precise ring to it. And when an earnings figure is accompanied by an dozens of decimal places. them. Eventually truth will surface, but in the meantime a lot of money can change hands. Indeed, some In reality, however, earnings can be as pliable as putty when a charlatan heads the company reporting important American fortunes have been created by the monetization of accounting mirages. A on page 22 a previously unpublished satire on accounting practices written by Ben Graham in 1936. Alas, Funny business in accounting is not new. For connoisseurs of chicanery, I have attached as Appendix excesses similar to those he then lampooned have many times since found their way into the financial must always keep their guard up and use accounting numbers as a beginning, not an end, in their attempts statements of major American corporations and been duly certified by big-name auditors. Clearly, investors to calculate true "economic earnings" accruing to them. investments in companies ("investees") whose earnings far exceed their dividends and in which we record Berkshire's own reported earnings are misleading in a different, but important, way: We have huge our share of earnings only to the extent of the dividends we Cities/ABC, Inc. Our 17% share of the company's earnings amounted to more than $83 million last year. receive. The extreme case is Capital Yet only about $530,000 ($600,000 of dividends it paid us less some $70,000 of tax) is counted in Berkshire's our benefit but go unrecorded on our books. GAAP earnings. The residual $82 million-plus stayed with Cap Cities as retained earnings, which work for is of no importance, but their ownership and subsequent utilization is all-important. We care not whether Our perspective on such "forgotten-but-not-gone" earnings is simple: The way they are accounted for the auditors hear a tree fall in the forest; we do care who owns the tree and what's next done with it. ownership in what I regard to be the most valuable franchise in the world. (Coke also, of course, uses When Coca-Cola uses retained earnings to repurchase its shares, the company increases our percentage those funds to us in dividends, which we could then use to purchase more Coke shares. That would be retained earnings in many other value-enhancing ways.) Instead of repurchasing stock, Coca-Cola could pay a less efficient scenario: Because of taxes we would pay on dividend income, we would not be able to increase our proportionate procedure were followed, however, Berkshire would report far greater "earnings." ownership to the degree that Coke can, acting for us. If this less efficient I believe the best way to think about our earnings is in terms of "look-through" results, calculated as investees; subtract $30 million, for the incremental taxes we would have owed had that $250 million been follows: Take $250 million, which is roughly our share of the 1990 operating earnings retained by our paid to us in dividends; and add the remainder, $220 million, to our reported operating earnings of $371 million. Thus our 1990 "look-through earnings" were about $590 million. 7
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正如我去年所说,我们希望透视盈余每年增长约 15%。1990 年我们大幅超过了这一比率,但在 1991 年,我们将远低于这一目标。我们的吉列优先股已被提前赎回,我们将在 4 月 1 日将其转换为普通股。这将使报告收益每年减少约 3500 万美元,而透视盈余的减少幅度虽然小得多,但仍然相当可观。此外,我们的传媒业务盈利——无论是直接盈利还是透视盈余——似乎都注定会下降。无论结果如何,我们都会每年向各位通报我们在透视盈余方面的表现。
非保险业务
再看一下第 51 页的数据,这些数据汇总了我们非保险业务的盈利和资产负债表。1990 年,这些业务平均净资产的税后收益率为 51%,这样的成绩足以让该集团在 1989 年《财富》500 强中排在第 20 名左右。有两个因素使得这一回报率更加引人注目。首先,它并非来自杠杆:我们的主要设施几乎全是自有而非租赁的,且这些业务持有的少量债务基本上被其持有的现金所抵消。事实上,如果以资产回报率——即剔除债务对回报影响的指标——来衡量,我们这块业务将在《财富》500 强中跻身前十。同样重要的是,我们的回报并非来自像烟草或广播电视网络这样对所有参与者都具备极佳经济特性的行业。相反,它来自一群在诸如家具零售、糖果、吸尘器,甚至钢铁仓储这类平淡无奇的领域里经营的企业。原因很清楚:我们非凡的回报源于出色的经营管理者,而非碰巧处于好行业。
让我们看看规模较大的几项业务:
· 对零售业——尤其是高价商品——来说,这是糟糕的一年,但似乎没人告诉博尔斯海姆珠宝的艾克·弗里德曼。销售额增长了 18%。这个百分比既是同店数据,也是全店数据,因为博尔斯海姆只经营着一家店。但,天啊,这是怎样的一家店!我们对此拿不准(因为大多数高档珠宝零售商为私人所有),但我们相信这家珠宝店的全美销售额超过其他任何一家,唯有纽约蒂芙尼店可能是例外。如果我们的顾客只来自奥马哈都会区(人口约 60 万),博尔斯海姆不可能做得那么好。我们在奥马哈地区的珠宝业务中早已占据极大的份额,所以这一市场的增长必然有限。但来自中西部以外客户的生意每年都在大幅增长。许多人会亲自到店选购,但还有大量顾客通过邮寄方式购买,其方式你会觉得颇为有趣。这些顾客会要求挑选某一特定类型和价位的珠宝——比方说,价位在 1 万美元至 2 万美元之间的祖母绿——然后我们会寄给他们五到十件符合要求的商品,供他们从中挑选。去年,我们寄出了大约 1500 份各类精选商品,价值从不足 1000 美元到数十万美元不等。这些精选商品被寄往全国各地,有些收件人博尔斯海姆从未有人见过。(当然,他们之前肯定都得到过可靠推荐。)尽管 1990 年的邮寄量创下了纪录,但艾克几十年来一直在把商品寄往四面八方。厌世者将大为沮丧地看到,我们的“诚信体系”运转得多么好:迄今为止,我们尚未因顾客的不诚实行为而蒙受过任何损失。
我们之所以能吸引全国各地的生意,是因为我们拥有几项竞争对手无法比拟的优势。其中最关键的一项是运营成本,我们约占销售额的 18%,而典型竞争对手则为 40% 左右。(这 18% 中包含了场地占用和采购成本,一些上市公司会将这些成本计入“销售成本”!)正如运营成本只有 15% 的沃尔玛能以高成本竞争对手无法企及的价格销售商品,从而持续扩大其市场份额一样,博尔斯海姆也是如此。适用于尿布的道理,同样适用于钻石。我们的低价带来了巨大的销量,反过来又使我们能够保有极其广泛而庞大的库存,其规模可达典型高档珠宝店的十倍甚至更多。将我们选择的广泛性、低价与卓越的服务结合起来,你就能理解艾克和他的家人是如何从奥马哈的一处店址,打造出一个全国性的珠宝奇迹的了。
we substantially exceeded that rate but in 1991 we will fall far short of it. Our Gillette preferred has been As 1 mentioned last year; we hope to have look-through earnings grow about 15% annually. In 1990 called and we will convert it into common stock on April 1. This will reduce reported earnings by about our media earnings $35 million annually and look-through earnings by a much smaller, but still significant, amount. Additionally,
- both direct and look-through — appear sure to decline. Whatever the results, we
will post you annually on how we are doing on a look-through basis. Non-Insurance Operations Take another look at the figures on page 51, which aggregate the earnings and balance sheets of our non-insurance operations. After-tax earnings on average equity in 1990 were 51%, a result that would have placed the group about 20th on the 1989 Fortune 500. our major facilities are owned, not leased, and such small debt as these operations have is basically offset Two factors make this return even more remarkable. First, leverage did not produce it: Almost all by cash they hold. In fact, if the measurement was return on assets — a calculation that eliminates the effect of debt upon returns - our group would rank in Fortune's top ten. stations, possessing spectacular economics for all participating in them. Instead it came from a group of Equally important, our return was not earned from industries, such as cigarettes or network television businesses operating in such prosaic fields as furniture retailing, candy, vacuum cleaners, and even steel warehousing. The explanation is clear: Our extraordinary returns flow from outstanding operating managers, not fortuitous industry economics. Let's look at the larger operations: Friedman at Borsheim's. Sales were up 18%. That's both a same-stores and all-stores percentage, since • It was a poor year for retailing - particularly for big-ticket items — but someone forgot to tell Ike Borsheim's operates but one establishment. But, oh, what an establishment! We can't be sure about the fact (because most fine-jewelry retailers except for Tiffany's New York store. are privately owned) but we believe that this jewelry store does more volume than any other in the U.S., area, whose population is about 600,000. We have long had a huge percentage of greater Omaha's jewelry Borsheim's could not do nearly that well if our customers came only from the Omaha metropolitan grows dramatically. Many visit the store in person. A large number of others, however, buy through the mail business, so growth in that market is necessarily limited. But every year business from non-Midwest customers in a manner you will find interesting $20,000 range — and we then send them five to ten items meeting their specifications and from which they These customers request a jewelry selection of a certain type and value — say, emeralds in the $10,000- $1,000 to hundreds of thousands of dollars. can pick. Last year we mailed about 1,500 assortments of all kinds, carrying values ranging from under must always have been well recommended, however.) While the number of mailings in 1990 was a record, The selections are sent all over the country, some to people no one at Borsheim's has ever met. (They well our "honor-system" works: We have yet to experience a loss from customer dishonesty. Ike has been sending merchandise far and wide for decades. Misanthropes will be crushed to learn how most important item in the equation is our operating costs, which run about 18% of sales compared to 40% We attract business nationwide because we have several advantages that competitors can't match. The or so at the typical competitor. (Included in the 18% are occupancy and buying costs, which some public companies include in "cost of goods sold!") Just as Wal-Mart, with its 15% operating costs, sells at prices What works with diapers works with diamonds. that high-cost competitors can't touch and thereby constantly increases its market share, so does Borsheim's. Our low prices create huge volume that in turn allows us to carry an extraordinarily broad inventory of goods, running ten or more times the size of that at the typical fine-jewelry store. Couple our breadth a national jewelry phenomenon from an Omaha location. of selection and low prices with superb service and you can understand how Ike and his family have built 8
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这样的家族确实名副其实。艾克的核心团队总是包括儿子艾伦以及女婿马文·科恩和唐纳德·耶鲁。此外,当生意忙碌时——这经常发生——艾克的妻子罗兹、女儿珍妮丝和苏茜也会加入帮忙。还有路易(内布拉斯加家具城的董事长,也是艾克的表弟)的妻子弗兰·布拉姆金也经常搭把手。最后,你会看到艾克 89 岁的母亲丽贝卡,大多数下午都在店里,手里拿着《华尔街日报》。面对如此投入的家族,波仙珠宝能把那些经理人整天盘算着下午 5 点下班的竞争对手远远甩在身后,又有什么可奇怪的呢?
- 就在弗兰·布拉姆金帮助弗里德曼家族在波仙珠宝创下纪录的同时,她的儿子伊夫和罗恩,连同他们的父亲路易,正在内布拉斯加家具城刷新纪录。我们这一家独店的销售额为 1.59 亿美元,较 1989 年增长 4%。虽然这个事实同样无法得到确凿证明,但我们确信 NFM 的销售额几乎是全国任何其他家居用品商店的两倍。
NFM 的成功秘诀与波仙珠宝如出一辙。首先,运营成本压至极低——1990 年约为 15%,而全国最大的家具零售商莱维茨约为 40%,领先的电子产品和电器折扣零售商电路城约为 25%。其次,NFM 的低成本使其能够把价格定得远低于所有竞争对手。事实上,大型连锁店深知自己将面临什么,都避开了奥马哈。第三,我们的低廉价格带来的巨大销量,使我们能够提供业内最广泛的商品选择,品种之全无处能及。
关于 NFM 的商品销售魔力,可以从最近一份关于得梅因市消费者行为的报告中窥见一斑。这份报告显示,在服务于该市的 20 家家具零售商中,NFM 在受欢迎程度上排名第三。这听起来可能没什么大不了,但你要知道,这 19 家零售商都位于得梅因市内,而我们的商店在 130 英里之外。这意味着顾客们驱车相当于从华盛顿到费城的距离来我们这里购物,尽管他们家门口就有数不清的选择。实际上,NFM 和波仙珠宝一样,戏剧性地扩大了自己所服务的版图——不是靠传统的开设新店模式,而是打造了一块具有不可抗拒磁力的吸铁石,用价格和品种把顾客吸引过来。
去年在家具城发生了一件具有历史意义的事件:我经历了一场认知逆转。本报告的长期读者都知道,我长期嘲讽企业高管们对协同效应的自吹自擂,鄙夷这种说法不过是恶棍们为愚蠢收购辩护的最后遮羞布。但现在我有了更深刻的认识:在伯克希尔的第一次协同效应大爆发中,NFM 在去年年底把一辆喜诗糖果的售货车摆进了家具城,卖出的糖果比喜诗在加州经营的部分正式门店还要多。这一成功颠覆了零售业的所有金科玉律。不过,对于布拉姆金家族来说,化不可能为可能是家常便饭。
- 在喜诗糖果,1990 年的实物销量创下了纪录——但只是勉强创下,并且仅仅是靠年初的良好销售。科威特遭到入侵之后,西部商场的客流量下降。我们圣诞节的磅数销量略有下降,不过由于价格上涨了 5%,美元销售额有所提升。这次提价,加上对费用的更好控制,提高了利润率。在零售环境疲软的背景下,查克·哈金斯交出了亮眼的成绩单,一如我们拥有喜诗的 19 年来他每年所做的那样。查克给这家企业留下的印记——对品质和服务的近乎狂热的执着——在我们所有 225 家门店中都清晰可见。
1990 年发生的一件事足以说明喜诗与其顾客之间的深厚情感。我们位于阿尔伯克基的门店在运营 15 年后面临危机:房东不再续租,要求我们搬到商场内一个较差的位置,即便如此还要支付高得多的租金。这些变动会把这店的利润吞噬得一干二净。旷日持久的谈判毫无结果,我们只得定下一个关店的日期。查克随后给每一位忠实顾客亲手写了感谢信,并随信附上礼品券。(事实证明,他也没能逃过一场认知逆转。)他在一则报纸广告中再次表达感谢,并附上了所有 263 位顾客的名单。后续结果是:阿尔伯克基门店的圣诞节销售额大幅增长。
And family it is. Ike's crew always includes son Alan and sons-in-law Marvin Cohn and Donald Yale. and Susie. In addition, Fran Blumkin, wife of Louie (Chairman of Nebraska Furniture Mart and Ike's And when things are busy - that's often - they are joined by Ike's wife, Roz, and his daughters, Janis afternoons, Wall Street Journal in hand. Given a family commitment like this, is it any surprise that cousin), regularly pitches in. Finally, you'll find Ike's 89-year-old mother, Rebecca, in the store most Borsheim's runs rings around competitors whose managers are thinking about how soon 5 o'clock will arrive? Ron, along with husband Louie, were setting records at The Nebraska Furniture Mart. Sales at our one-and- • While Fran Blumkin was helping the Friedman family set records at Borsheim's, her sons, Irv and believe NFM does close to double the volume of any other home furnishings store in the country. only location were $159 million, up 4% from 1989. Though again the fact can't be conclusively proved, we 15% in 1990 against about 40% for Levitz, the country's largest furniture retailer, and 25% for Circuit City The NFM formula for success parallels that of Borsheim's. First, operating costs are rock-bottom - to price well below all competitors. Indeed, major chains, knowing what they will face, steer clear of Omaha. Stores, the leading discount retailer of electronics and appliances. Second, NFM's low costs allow the business Third, the huge volume generated by our bargain prices allows us to carry the broadest selection of merchandise available anywhere. in Des Moines, which showed that NFM was Number 3 in popularity among 20 furniture retailers serving Some idea of NFM's merchandising power can be gleaned from a recent report of consumer behavior Moines, whereas our store is 130 miles away. This leaves customers driving a distance equal to that between that city. That may sound like no big deal until you consider that 19 of those retailers are located in Des Washington and Philadelphia in order to shop with us, even though they have a multitude of alternatives traditional method of opening new stores but rather by creating an irresistible magnet that employs price next door: In effect, NFM, like Borsheim's, has dramatically expanded the territory it serves — not by the and selection to pull in the crowds. Last year at the Mart there occurred an historic event: I experienced a counterrevelation. Regular readers of this report know that I have long scorned the boasts of corporate executives about synergy, In Berkshire's first synergistic explosion, NFM put a See's candy cart in the store late last year and sold deriding such claims as the last refuge of scoundrels defending foolish acquisitions. But now I know better: more candy than that moved by some of the full-fledged stores See's operates in California. This success contradicts all tenets of retailing. With the Blumkins, though, the impossible is routine. in the year. After the invasion of Kuwait, mall traffic in the West fell. Our poundage volume at Christmas • At See's, physical volume set a record in 1990 — but only barely and only because of good sales early dropped slightly, though our dollar sales were up because of a 5% price increase. retailing environment, Chuck Huggins delivered outstanding results, as he has in each of the nineteen years That increase, and better control of expenses, improved profit margins. Against the backdrop of a weak we have owned See's. Chuck's imprint on the business - a virtual fanaticism about quality and service - is visible at all of our 225 stores. operation, our store in Albuquerque was endangered: The landlord would not renew our lease, wanting us One happening in 1990 illustrates the close bond between See's and its customers. After 15 years of would have wiped out the store's profit. After extended negotiations got us nowhere, we set a date for instead to move to an inferior location in the mall and even so to pay a much higher rent. These changes closing the store. (He, too, proved susceptible to a counterrevelation.) He repeated his thanks in a newspaper ad that listed the names of all 263. The sequel: Christmas sales Chuck subsequently wrote personal letters of thanks to every loyalist and sent each a gift certificate. in Albuquerque were up substantially. 9
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- 查理和我对过去一年媒体行业的变化感到意外,其中也包括我们的《布法罗新闻》这类报纸。这个行业在经济衰退初期表现出的脆弱性远超以往。问题在于,这种侵蚀仅仅是反常周期的一部分——会在下一次回升中完全弥补——还是业务已经以一种永久降低内在价值的方式下滑了。如果你认为这些报纸资产是被保护起来的,你可能会质疑我、这个行业或贷款机构仅在几年前还视为理所当然的那种稳固性。与美国一般工业相比,媒体企业仍将是奇迹,但它们将远不如过去那样出色。
媒体企业过去之所以如此杰出,并非靠物理增长,而是靠大多数参与者拥有的异常定价权。然而现在,广告支出的增长正在放缓。此外,不做或很少做媒体广告的零售商(尽管他们有时会利用邮政服务)已经逐渐在某些商品类别中夺取了市场份额。最重要的是,印刷和电子两种广告渠道的数量都已大幅增加。其结果是,广告支出更加分散,广告卖家的定价权被削弱。这些情况实质性地降低了我主要媒体投资的内在价值,也降低了我们的经营实体《布法罗新闻》的价值——尽管它们仍然是好生意。
尽管存在问题,斯坦·利普西对《新闻报》的管理依然出色。在 1990 年,我们的盈利表现比大多数都市报纸好得多,仅下降了 5%。但在去年最后几个月,下降速度要快得多。
关于 1991 年的《新闻报》,我可以有把握地做出两个承诺:(1)斯坦将继续在报纸发行人群体中名列前茅;(2)盈利将大幅下降。尽管新闻纸需求放缓,但 1991 年每吨的价格将显著提高,报纸的劳动力成本也将更高。由于收入可能会同时下降,我们将面临真正的挤压。无论盈利压力多大,我们都将保持至少 50% 的新闻版面率。削减产品质量不是应对困境的正确方法。
乔治·赫尔德曼 69 岁了,决定退休。我试图说服他改变主意,但他有一个无可辩驳的理由:还有另外四位赫尔德曼——鲍勃、弗雷德、加里和罗杰——可以接替,他留给了我们充足的管理人才。
- 费希海默公司(我们的制服制造和零售业务)的消息几乎全是好的,只有一个例外:1990 年经营业绩大幅改善,我们在 1988 年大规模收购中遇到的许多整合问题得到了缓解或解决。然而,几项特殊项目导致“来源”表中报告的盈利持平。在零售业务中,我们继续增加门店,现在在 22 个州拥有 42 家门店。总体而言,费希海默的前景看起来非常好。
- 在斯科特-费泽,拉尔夫·谢伊同时管理着 19 项业务,其娴熟程度鲜有人能及。除了监管第 6 页列出的三个实体——世界百科全书、吉比和斯科特-费泽制造——拉尔夫还指导着一项金融业务,该业务 1990 年创下了税前 1220 万美元的纪录。如果斯科特-费泽是一家独立的公司,按净资产收益率衡量,它将接近《财富》500 强的前列,尽管它所处的行业并非人们预期的经济冠军行业。如此优异的成绩直接归功于拉尔夫。
在世界百科全书,盈利在单位销量小幅下降的情况下有所改善。我们分权化举措的成本在 1990 年远低于 1989 年,分权的益处正在显现。世界百科全书在美国百科全书销售中仍然遥遥领先,我们正在拓展国际市场,尽管基数很小。
吉比在新型号吸尘器“第三代”的帮助下,1990 年单位销量大幅增长,该产品取得了毋庸置疑的成功。盈利增长没有跟上销售增长,原因在于我们在制造新产品时遇到了启动支出和“学习曲线”问题。国际业务也呈增长势头。
• Charlie and1 were surprised at developments this past vear in the media industry, including newspapers such as our Buffalo News. The business showed far more vulnerability to the early stages of aberrational cycle — to be fully made up in the next upturn — or whether the business has slipped in a a recession than has been the case in the past. The question is whether this erosion is just part of an way that permanently reduces intrinsic business values. wil Spend deverphedes, l prote a pened, you may estion the blus of me wed retion about what I, the industry, or lenders thought would be the case only a few years ago. marvels in comparison with American industry generally, they will prove considerably less marvelous than The reason media businesses have been so outstanding in the past was not physical growth, but rather slowly. In addition, retailers that do little or no media advertising (though they sometimes use the Postal the unusual pricing power that most participants wielded. Now, however, advertising dollars are growing number of both print and electronic advertising channels has substantially increased. As a consequence, Service) have gradually taken market share in certain merchandise categories. Most important of all, the advertising dollars are more widely dispersed and the pricing power of ad vendors has diminished. These circumstances materially reduce the intrinsic value of our major media investments and also the value of our operating unit, Buffalo News - though all remain fine businesses. 1990, our earnings held up much better than those of most metropolitan papers, falling only 5%. In the Notwithstanding the problems, Stan Lipsey's management of the News continues to be superb. During last few months of the year, however, the rate of decrease was far greater. newspaper publishers; and (2) earnings will fall substantially. Despite a slowdown in the demand for I can safely make two promises about the News in 1991: (1) Stan will again rank at the top among be considerably higher. Since revenues may meanwhile be down, we face a real squeeze. newsprint, the price per ton will average significantly more in 1991 and the paper's labor costs will also from a gain in news pages. Regardless of earnings pressures, we will maintain at least a 50% news hole. Cutting product quality is not a proper response to adversity. George Heldman, at 69, has decided to retire. I tried to talk him out of it but he had one irrefutable • The news at Fechheimer, our manufacturer and retailer of uniforms, is all good with one exception: argument: With four other Heldmans - Bob, Fred, Gary and Roger - to carry on, he was leaving us with an abundance of managerial talent. encountered in integrating the large acquisition we made in 1988 were moderated or solved. However, rechheimer's operating performance improved considerably in 1990, as many of the problems we several unusual items caused the earnings reported in the "Sources" table to be flat. In the retail operation, we continue to add stores and now have 42 in 22 states. Overall, prospects appear excellent for Fechheimer. to overseeing three entities listed on page 6 — World Book, Kirby, and Scott Fetzer Manufacturing - Ralph • At Scott Fetzer, Ralph Schey runs 19 businesses with a mastery few bring to running one. In addition directs a finance operation that earned a record $12.2 million pre-tax in 1990. terms of return on equity, although it is not in businesses that one would expect to be economic champs. Were Scott Fetzer an independent company, it would rank close to the top of the Fortune 500 in The superior results are directly attributable to Ralph. ization move were considerably less in 1990 than 1989 and the benefits of decentralization are being At World Book, earnings improved on a small decrease in unit volume. The costs of our decentral- realized. World Book remains far and away the leader in United States encyclopedia sales and we are growing internationally, though from a small base. 3, which was an unqualified success. Earnings did not grow as fast as sales because of both start-up Kirby unit volume grew substantially in 1990 with the help of our new vacuum cleaner, The Generation expenditures and "learning-curve' problems we encountered in manufacturing the new product. International 10
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我去年描述过其高速增长的一门生意,1990 年销售额又增长了 20%。借助最近的一次提价,我们预计柯比(Kirby)在 1991 年能有出色的盈利表现。
在斯科特-费泽制造集团内部,其最大的子公司坎贝尔·豪斯菲尔德(Campbell Hausfeld)——全美中小型空压机的领军企业——业绩尤为出色,实现了 1.09 亿美元的创纪录销售额,其中超过 30% 来自过去五年内推出的产品。
查看我们非保险业务的数字时,你会发现净资产在 1990 年仅增加了 4700 万美元,尽管盈利是 1.33 亿美元。这并不意味着我们的经理人在任何方面吝于投资那些强化其经济特许权或促进增长的项目。事实上,他们孜孜不倦地追求这两个目标。但他们也从不会在没有充分理由的情况下动用资本。结果是:过去五年里,他们将超过 80% 的盈利交给了查理和我,用于新的业务和投资机会。
保险业务
以下是财产-意外险行业关键数据的常规表格更新版:
| 年份 | 承保保费变化 (%) | 综合成本率(扣除保单分红后) | 已发生损失年度变化 (%) | 通货膨胀率——GNP 平减指数 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | 3.8 | 106.0 | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| 1982 | 3.7 | 109.6 | 6.5 | 5.0 |
| 1983 | 5.0 | 112.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 |
| 1984 | 8.4 | 118.0 | 16.1 | 3.8 |
| 1985 | 22.2 | 116.3 | 16.9 | 3.0 |
| 1986 | 22.1 | 108.0 | 13.5 | 2.6 |
| 1987 | 9.4 | 104.6 | 7.8 | 3.1 |
| 1988 | 4.5 | 105.4 | 5.5 | 3.3 |
| 1989(修订版) | 3.2 | 109.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 |
| 1990(预估) | 4.1 | 109.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
来源:A.M. Best 公司
综合成本率代表保险总成本(已发生损失加费用)与保费收入的对比:低于 100 的比率表示承保利润,高于 100 则表示亏损。比率越高,年份越糟。如果把保险公司从持有保单持有人资金(“浮存金”)中获得的投资收益考虑在内,那么 107 至 111 范围内的综合成本率通常会产生一个总体盈亏平衡的结果,不包括股东自有资金带来的收益。
基于以往报告中说明的原因,我们预计该行业的已发生损失将以每年 10% 的速度增长,即使在整体通胀率低得多的时期也是如此。(实际上,过去 25 年里,已发生损失以更快的速度增长,为 11%。)如果与此同时保费增长大幅落后于那个 10% 的比率,承保损失将会增加,尽管该行业在业务变差时倾向于低估准备金的倾向,可能会暂时掩盖其规模。
去年,保费增长远低于所需的 10%,因此承保结果恶化了。(然而,在我们的表格中,1990 年恶化的严重程度被掩盖了,因为该行业 1989 年从飓风雨果中遭受的损失使得那一年的比率略高于趋势线。)综合成本率在 1991 年将再次上升,很可能上涨约两个百分点。
business, whose dramatic growth I described last year, had a further 20% sales gain in 1990. With the aid of a recent price increase, we expect excellent earnings at Kirby in 1991. fine year. This company, the country's leading producer of small and medium-sized air compressors, achieved Within the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, Campbell Hausfeld, its largest unit, had a particularly record sales of $109 million, more than 30% of which came from products introduced during the last five years.
only $47 million in 1990 although earnings were $133 million. This does not mean that our managers are In looking at the figures for our non-insurance operations, you will see that net worth increased by in any way skimping on investments that strengthen their business franchises or that promote growth. Indeed, they diligently pursue both goals. funneled well over 80% of their earnings to Charlie and me for use in new business and investment But they also never deploy capital without good reason. The result: In the past five years they have opportunities. Insurance Operations insurance industry: Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the property-casualty early Change in Premiums Combined Ratio Written (%) After Policyholder Yearly Change Dividends in Incurred Inflation Rate Losses (%) GNP Deflator (%) Measured by 1982 1981. 3.8 3.7 106.0 8.5 5.0 109.6 6.5 9.6 1983 112.0 16.1 16.9 6.8 8.4 6.5 1984 3.8 1985. 22.2 22.1 118.0 3.8 1986 116.3 13.5 3.0 1987 4.4 9.4 108.0 5.5 7.8 2.6 1988. 104.6 3.1 1989 (Revised)........ 4.5 3.2 109.2 105.4 5.0 7.7 3.3 1990 (Est.).............. 109.8 4.1 4.1 Source: A.M. Best Co. revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to a loss. The higher the ratio, the worse the year. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding policyholders' funds ("the float") is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107 - 111 range typically produces an overall breakeven result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders. average of 10% annually, even in periods when general inflation runs considerably lower. (Over the last 25 For the reasons laid out in previous reports, we expect the industry's incurred losses to grow at an years, incurred losses have in reality grown at a still faster rate, 11%.) If premium growth meanwhile reserve when business turns bad may obscure their size for a time. materially lags that 10% rate, underwriting losses will mount, though the industry's tendency to under- worsened. (In our table, however, the severity of the deterioration in 1990 is masked because the industry's Last year premium growth fell far short of the required 10% and underwriting results therefore 1989 losses from Hurricane Hugo caused the ratio for that year to be somewhat above trendline.) The combined ratio will again increase in 1991, probably by about two points. 11
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只有当大多数保险公司管理层恐惧到对业务避之唯恐不及——即使业务可以以比现在高得多的价格承保——承保结果才会改善。在某个节点,这些管理层确实会明白这个道理:当你发现自己身处坑中时,最重要的事就是停止挖掘。但到目前为止,这个道理还没被理解:保险公司的管理层们仍在挖掘——虽心有不甘,却干劲十足。
如果发生一场重大的自然或金融灾难,形势会迅速改观。若没有这样的冲击,大概还需要一到两年时间,承保亏损才会大到足以将管理层的恐惧提升到一个能引发保费大幅上涨的水平。当那一刻到来时,伯克希尔在财务和心理上都已做好准备,去承保巨额的业务。
与此同时,我们保险业务的规模虽然不大,但令人满意。在本报告的下一部分,我们将提供一个评估保险业绩的框架。从那个讨论中,你们会明白,我为何对我们的保险经理迈克·戈德堡及其明星团队——罗德·埃尔德雷德、迪诺斯·约达努、阿吉特·贾恩和唐·沃斯特——的表现如此热情。
在评估我们未来几年的保险业绩时,你应该注意到我们正在开展的一类业务,这类业务可能导致业绩异常波动。如果这条业务线像可能发生的那样扩张,我们的承保经验将偏离你可能预期的趋势线:在多数年份,我们会稍微超出预期,而在个别年份则会远低于预期。
我所预测的波动,反映了这样一个事实:我们已经成为了相当重大的灾难(“巨灾再保险”)的大额承保方,这些灾难可能是飓风、风暴或地震。这些保单的买方是再保险公司,它们本身从事的是为主要保险公司提供巨灾再保险的业务,并希望“转嫁”或摆脱自身对特大灾难的部分风险敞口。因为这些买方需要收取此类赔款的情况,只在保险业面临极端压力——甚至可能是混乱——的时刻才会出现,所以它们会寻求财力雄厚的卖方。而在此处,我们有一个重大竞争优势:在整个行业中,我们的实力无与伦比。
一份典型的巨灾再保险合同很复杂。但举个简单例子,我们可能会签发一份一年期、1000 万美元的保单,规定只有当某一灾难导致两个结果同时发生时,买方(一家再保险公司)才能获得赔付:(1)该再保险公司超过某一门槛金额的特定损失;以及(2)整个保险行业合计损失超过(比方说)50 亿美元。在几乎所有情况下,满足第二个条件的损失水平也必然会导致第一个条件被满足。
对于这份 1000 万美元的保单,我们可能会收取 300 万美元的保费。假设我们所有类型的巨灾再保险每年能收取 1 亿美元的保费。这样的话,我们很有可能会在任何一个给定年份报告接近 1 亿美元的利润或超过 2 亿美元的亏损。请注意,我们并没有像保险公司通常做的那样分散风险;我们是在集中风险。因此,我们这项业务的年度综合成本率几乎永远不会落在行业 100–120 的范围内,而是会接近 0% 或 300%。
大多数保险公司在财务上无法承受这样的波动。即便它们有能力承受,也常常缺乏意愿。例如,它们可能会因为自身承保了大量主要财产保险,而这些保险恰好在它们因巨灾再保险而面临重大损失的时候给它们带来糟糕业绩,从而选择退缩。此外,大多数公司管理层认为,他们的股东不喜欢业绩的波动。
我们可以采取不同的策略:我们的主要财产保险业务规模很小,我们相信伯克希尔的股东,只要得到适当的告知,能够容忍利润的异常波动,只要这些波动伴随着获得卓越长期回报的前景。(查理和我总是更倾向于一个高低不平的 15% 回报率,胜过一个平滑的 12%。)
我们要强调三点:(1)尽管我们预计巨灾再保险业务在未来十年左右的时间内能产生令人满意的业绩,但我们确信,它至少会在个别年份产生绝对糟糕的业绩;(2)我们的预期几乎只能基于主观判断——对于这类保险,当我们决定今天该收取什么费率时,历史损失数据对我们价值有限;以及(3)尽管我们期望承保大量的巨灾再保险业务,但我们只会在我们认为价格与风险相匹配的情况下才这么做。如果竞争对手变得乐观,我们的业务量就会下降。事实上,这类保险在近年来往往被严重低估;大多数卖方都是被担架抬着离开赛场的。
Results will improve only when most insurance managements become so fearful that they run from business, even though it can be done at much higher prices than now exist. At some point these managements will indeed get the message: The most important thing to do when you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging. But so far that point hasn't gotten across: Insurance managers continue to dig - sullenly but vigorously. such a shock, one to two years will likely pass before underwriting losses become large enough to raise The picture would change quickly if a major physical or financial catastrophe were to occur. Absent management fear to a level that would spur major price increases. When that moment arrives, Berkshire will be ready - both financially and psychologically - to write huge amounts of business. In the meantime, our insurance volume continues to be small but satisfactory. In the next section of this report we will give you a framework for evaluating insurance results. From that discussion, you will gain an understanding of why I am so enthusiastic about the performance of our insurance manager, Mike Goldberg, and his cadre of stars, Rod Eldred, Dinos lordanou, Ajit Jain, and Don Wurster. we are pursuing that could cause them to be unusually volatile. If this line of business expands, as it may, In assessing our insurance results over the next few years, you should be aware of one type of business our underwriting experience will deviate from the trendline you might expect: In most years we will somewhat exceed expectations and in an occasional year we will fall far below them. The volatility I predict reflects the fact that we have become a large seller of insurance against truly major catastrophes ("super-cats"), which could for example be hurricanes, windstorms or earthquakes. The buyers of these policies are reinsurance companies that themselves are in the business of writing catastrophe catastrophes of special severity. Because the need for these buyers to collect on such a policy will only arise coverage for primary insurers and that wish to "lay off," or rid themselves, of part of their exposure to sellers. And here we have a major competitive advantage: In the industry, our strength is unmatched. at times of extreme stress — perhaps even chaos - in the insurance business, they seek financially strong $10 million policy providing that the buyer, a reinsurer, would be paid that sum only if a catastrophe caused A typical super-cat contract is complicated. But in a plain-vanilla instance we might write a one-year, two results: (1) specific losses for the reinsurer above a threshold amount; and (2) aggregate losses for the insurance industry of, say, more than $5 billion. Under virtually all circumstances, loss levels that satisfy the second condition will also have caused the first to be met. in annual premiums of $100 million from super-cat policies of all kinds. In that case we are very likely in For this $10 million policy, we might receive a premium of, say, $3 million. Say, also, that we take that we are not spreading risk as insurers typically do; we are concentrating it. Therefore, our yearly any given year to report either a profit of close to $100 million or a loss of well over $200 million. Note combined ratio on this business will almost never fall in the industry range of 100 - 120, but will instead be close to either zero or 300%. Most insurers are financially unable to tolerate such swings. And if they have the ability to do so, they insurance that would deliver them dismal results at the very time they would be experiencing major losses often lack the desire. They may back away, for example, because they write gobs of primary property on super-cat reinsurance. In addition, most corporate managements believe that their shareholders dislike volatility in results. that Berkshire shareholders, if properly informed, can handle unusual volatility in profits so long as the We can take a different tack: Our business in primary property insurance is small and we believe swings carry with them the prospect of superior long-term results. (Charlie and I always have preferred a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12%.) results over, say, a decade, we're sure it will produce absolutely terrible results in at least an occasional year; We want to emphasize three points: (1) While we expect our super-cat business to produce satisfactory (2) Our expectations can be based on little more than subjective judgments - for this kind of insurance, historical loss data are of very limited value to us as we decide what rates to charge today; and (3) Though we expect to write significant quantities of super-cat business, we will do so only at prices we believe to be commensurate with risk. If competitors become optimistic, our volume will fall. This insurance has, in fact, tended in recent years to be woefully underpriced; most sellers have left the field on stretchers. 12
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重大城市发生地震或欧洲暴风雪肆虐时,请为我们点一支蜡烛。
衡量保险业绩
目前,我们相信伯克希尔是美国最大的巨灾再保险承保商。所以当
在上一节中,我提到了“浮存金”,即保险公司在经营过程中持有的他人资金。因为这些资金可用于投资,所以一般的财产险保险公司能够承受保费超出 7% 至 11% 的损失和费用,同时仍能在其业务上实现盈亏平衡。再次说明,这一计算排除了保险公司在净资产上的收益——即股东提供的资金所产生的收益。
然而,这个 7% 至 11% 的范围存在许多例外。例如,为冰雹灾害造成的农作物损失提供保险几乎不会产生任何浮存金。这类保险的保费是在冰雹威胁临近时才支付给保险公司的,如果农民遭受损失,他会立即获得赔付。因此,对于农作物冰雹保险来说,综合成本率为 100 对保险公司意味着没有利润。
在另一个极端,覆盖医生、律师和会计师潜在责任的医疗事故保险,相比年度保费收入,能产生非常高的浮存金。产生这种浮存金的原因是,索赔通常是在涉嫌不当行为发生很久之后才提出,而且由于冗长的诉讼,其支付可能会进一步延迟。保险行业将医疗事故保险和某些其他类型的责任保险称为“长尾业务”,指的是从发生到最终支付之间的漫长时期。在此期间,保险公司持有大量资金,这些资金最终将流向索赔人及其律师(以及保险公司的律师)。
在长尾情况下,综合成本率达到 115(甚至更高)可能是有利可图的,因为浮存金产生的收益将超过索赔和费用超出保费 15% 的亏空。然而,问题在于,“长尾”名副其实:某一特定年份承保的责任业务,最初被认为产生了 115 的综合成本率,但当多年过去,所有索赔最终解决后,可能会给保险公司带来 200、300 甚至更糟的损失。
这项业务的陷阱催生了一条常常被忽视的经营原则:尽管某些长尾业务在综合成本率为 110 或 115 时可能实现盈利,但保险公司如果以这些比率作为定价目标,几乎必然会发现定价无利可图。相反,价格必须提供健康的安全边际,以抵御那些不断给保险业带来昂贵意外的社会趋势。将目标定为 100 本身就可能造成严重损失;瞄准 110 – 115 则是商业自杀。
衡量盈利能力的另一个常见指标是净资产收益率,我们通常用它来衡量一家公司的盈利能力。然而,我们认为,更好的衡量标准是比较承保损失与所产生的浮存金。
这个损失/浮存金比率,如同评估保险业绩时使用的任何统计数据一样,在短期内毫无意义:季度承保数据,甚至年度数据,都过于依赖估计,参考价值不大。但当该比率覆盖多年时间时,它能粗略反映出资金成本——即保险业务产生的资金成本。低资金成本意味着好业务;高资金成本则意味着坏业务。
下一页我们列出了自我们进入保险业务以来,每年保险集团的承保损失(如有),并将其与我们当年持有的平均浮存金相关联。通过这些数据,我们计算出了“从保险业务中产生的资金成本”。
13
major quake occurs in an urban area or a winter storm rages across Europe, light a candle for us. At the moment, we believe Berkshire to be the largest U.S. writer of super-cat business. So when a Measuring Insurance Performance business, temporarily hold. Because these funds are available to be invested, the typical property-casualty In the previous section I mentioned "float," the funds of others that insurers, in the conduct of their insurer can absorb losses and expenses that exceed premiums by 7% to 11% and still be able to break even on its business. Again, this calculation excludes the earnings the insurer realizes on net worth - that is, on the funds provided by shareholders. crops from hail damage produces virtually no float at all. Premiums on this kind of business are paid to However, many exceptions to this 7% to 11% range exist. For example, insurance covering losses to almost immediately. Thus, a combined ratio of 100 for crop hail insurance produces no profit for the insurer. the insurer just prior to the time hailstorms are a threat, and if a farmer sustains a loss he will be paid accountants produces a very high amount of float compared to annual premium volume. The float At the other extreme, malpractice insurance covering the potential liabilities of doctors, lawyers and materializes because claims are often brought long after the alleged wrongdoing takes place and because other kinds of liability insurance "long-tail" business, in recognition of the extended period during which their payment may be still further delayed by lengthy litigation. The industry calls malpractice and certain lawyers as well). insurers get to hold large sums that in the end will go to claimants and their lawyers (and to the insurer's produced by the float will exceed the 15% by which claims and expenses overrun premiums. The catch, In long-tail situations a combined ratio of 115 (or even more) can prove profitable, since earnings though, is that "long-tail" means exactly that: Liability business written in a given year and presumed at when the years have rolled by and all claims have finally been settled. first to have produced a combined ratio of 115 may eventually smack the insurer with 200, 300 or worse long-tail lines may prove profitable at combined ratios of 110 or 115, insurers will invariably find it The pitfalls of this business mandate an operating principle that too often is ignored: Though certain against the societal trends that are forever springing expensive surprises on the insurance industry. Setting unprofitable to price using those ratios as targets. Instead, prices must provide a healthy margin of safety a target of 100 can itself result in heavy losses; aiming for 110 - 115 is business suicide. where a company ranks in profitability. We believe a better measure, however, to be a comparison of underwriting loss to float developed. time periods: Quarterly underwriting figures and even annual ones are too heavily based on estimates to This loss/float ratio, like any statistic used in evaluating insurance results, is meaningless over short generated by insurance operations. A low cost of funds signifies a good business; a high cost translates into be much good. But when the ratio takes in a period of years, it gives a rough indication of the cost of funds a poor business. we entered the business and relate that bottom line to the average float we have held during the year. On the next page we show the underwriting loss, if any, of our insurance group in each year since From this data we have computed a "cost of funds developed from insurance." 13
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(1)
(2)
年末收益率
承保
(1 与 2 的比率)
资金成本
近似
亏损
(单位:百万美元)
平均浮存金
长期政府债券收益率
1967..
1969
1968.
盈利
盈利
17.3
23.4
19.9
低于零
低于零
5.50%
1971
1970
盈利
低于零
5.90%
0.37
52.5
32.4
低于零
1.14%
6.79%
1973
1972
盈利
盈利
6.25%
73.3
69.5
低于零
5.81%
1974.
盈利
低于零
5.82%
1976..
1975
11.35
7.36
79.1
12.96%
9.30%
7.27%
盈利
盈利
102.6
87.6
8.13%
低于零
低于零
8.03%
1977..
1979
1978.
139.0
10.08%
8.93%
7.97%
7.30%
盈利
盈利
227.3
190.4
低于零
1981
1980
盈利
盈利
237.0
低于零
低于零
1983.
1982
21.56
228.4
低于零
11.94%
33.87
220.6
14.64%
9.77%
10.64%
13.61%
1985
1984
48.06
231.3
55.84
44.23
253.2
18.98%
11.84%
1986
390.2
11.34%
11.58%
1988
1987
55.43
797.5
7.00%
9.34%
24.40
11.08
1,266.7
4.38%
8.95%
7.60%
1989
1,497.7
1990
26.65
1,615.9
1,541.3
0.74%
1.65%
1.58%
9.00%
7.97%
8.24%
浮存金数据来源于损失准备金、损失调整费用准备金以及未赚保费准备金减去代理人余额、预付取得成本和适用于假定再保险的递延费用之和。在某些保险公司,其他项目也应纳入计算,但在我们这里,这些项目不重要,已被忽略。
1990 年,我们持有了大约 16 亿美元的浮存金,这些资金最终将流向他人之手。而我们当年遭受的承保亏损为 2700 万美元,因此我们的保险业务以大约 16% 的成本为我们提供了资金。如表所示,在某些年份,我们成功地实现了承保盈利,此时资金成本低于零。而在其他年份,例如 1984 年,我们为浮存金支付了非常高的成本。不过,在我们涉足保险业务的 24 年中有 19 年,我们是以低于政府借款成本的成本获得了资金。
对这个计算有两个重要的限定条件。首先,“胖女士还没唱完歌”,更不用说清账了——在几十年后所有亏损都了结之前,我们不会知道 1967 年至 1990 年期间的实际资金成本。其次,浮存金对股东的价值被一定程度上削弱了,因为股东必须自掏腰包来支持保险业务,并且要承受用这些资金赚取的投资收益被双重征税。直接投资在税务上会更有效率。
间接投资给股东带来的税收惩罚实际上相当可观。不过,这个计算必然不精确,我估计,对于普通保险公司,税收惩罚会使其浮存金成本增加大约一个百分点。我也认为,这个数字与伯克希尔的情况大致吻合。
为保险业务计算资金成本,可以让任何分析它的人判断该业务对股东究竟具有正面还是负面价值。如果这个成本(包括税收惩罚在内)高于……
(1) (2) Yearend Yield Underwriting (Ratio of 1 to 2) Cost of Funds Approximate LosS (In $ Millions) Average Float on Long-Term Govt. Bonds 1967.. 1969 1968. profit profit $17.3 23.4 19.9 less than zero less than zero 5.50% 1971 1970 profit less than zero 5.90% $0.37 52.5 32.4 less than zero 1.14% 6.79% 1973 1972 profit profit 6.25% 73.3 69.5 less than zero 5.81% 1974. profit less than zero 5.82% 1976.. 1975 11.35 7.36 79.1 12.96% 9.30% 7.27% profit profit 102.6 87.6 8.13% less than zero less than zero 8.03% 1977.. 1979 1978. 139.0 10.08% 8.93% 7.97% 7.30% profit profit 227.3 190.4 less than zero 1981 1980 profit profit 237.0 less than zero less than zero 1983. 1982 21.56 228.4 less than zero 11.94% 33.87 220.6 14.64% 9.77% 10.64% 13.61% 1985 1984 48.06 231.3 55.84 44.23 253.2 18.98% 11.84% 1986 390.2 11.34% 11.58% 1988 1987 55.43 797.5 7.00% 9.34% 24.40 11.08 1,266.7 4.38% 8.95% 7.60% 1989 1,497.7 1990 26.65 1,615.9 1,541.3 0.74% 1.65% 1.58% 9.00% 7.97% 8.24% unearned premium reserves minus agents' balances, prepaid acquisition costs and deferred charges applicable The float figures are derived from the total of loss reserves, loss adjustment expense reserves and to assumed reinsurance. At some insurers other items should enter into the calculation, but in our case these are unimportant and have been ignored. others. The underwriting loss we sustained during the year was $27 million and thus our insurance operation During 1990 we held about $1.6 billion of float slated eventually to find its way into the hands of produced funds for us at a cost of about 16%. As the table shows, we managed in some years to 1984, we paid a very high price for float. In 19 years out of the 24 we have been in insurance, though, we underwrite at a profit and in those instances our cost of funds was less than zero. In other years, such as have developed funds at a cost below that paid by the government. ing, and we won't know our true 1967 - 1990 cost of tunds until all losses from this period have beel 'here are two important qualifications to this calculation. First, the fat ladv has vet to gargle, let alon settled many decades from now. Second, the value of the float to shareholders is somewhat undercut by the fact that they must put up their own funds to support the insurance operation and are subject to double taxation on the investment income these funds earn. Direct investments would be more tax-efficient. calculation is necessarily imprecise, I would estimate that the owners of the average insurance company The tax penalty that indirect investments impose on shareholders is in fact substantial. Though the approximates the correct figure for Berkshire. would find the tax penalty adds about one percentage point to their cost of float. I also think that operation has a positive or negative value for shareholders. If this cost (including the tax penalty) is higher Figuring a cost of funds for an insurance business allows anyone analyzing it to determine whether the 14
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如果高于替代融资来源的成本,价值就是负的。如果成本更低,价值就是正的——而且如果成本明显更低,保险业务就堪称一项极具价值的资产。
迄今为止,伯克希尔落入了成本明显更低的阵营。更惊人的数字出现在 GEICO,我们现在持股 48%,这家公司历来能实现承保利润。GEICO 的增长带来了越来越多的可供投资资金,而这些资金的实际成本远低于零。本质上,GEICO 的投保人合计起来是在向公司支付浮存金利息,而不是反过来。(不过,好看全靠做出来:GEICO 不寻常的盈利能力源于其卓越的运营效率和审慎的风险分类,这反过来又让投保人享受到了极低的价格。)
另一方面,许多知名保险公司却承受着承保损失/浮存金成本,加上税收惩罚,给所有者带来了负回报。此外,这些公司像业内其他公司一样,容易遭受巨灾损失,这种损失可能超出其再保险保护范围,使其浮存金成本彻底失控。除非这些公司能大幅改善承保业绩——历史表明这几乎是不可能完成的任务——否则它们的股东将面临与一家银行所有者相似的结局:银行支付给存款的利息高于其从贷款中收取的利息。
总而言之,保险业务对我们非常有利。我们以合理的平均成本扩大了浮存金,而且因为我们利用这些低成本资金获得了良好的回报,所以进一步受益。我们的股东确实承担了额外的税负,但这些税负已得到远超补偿的回报——这要感谢我们在投资上的良好表现。
我们的记录中一个特别令人鼓舞的点是,尽管在迈克·戈德堡到来之前,你们的董事长犯过一些巨大的错误,但业绩依然实现了。保险业提供了大量犯错的机会,每当机会敲门时,我常常就答应了。许多年后,这些错误的账单还在不断寄来:在保险业,愚蠢行为没有诉讼时效。
我们保险业务的内在价值,永远比计算糖果公司或报业公司的价值要困难得多。但无论用哪种标准衡量,这项业务的价值都远超其账面价值。此外,尽管这项业务时不时会给我们带来麻烦,但在我们拥有的所有优秀企业中,它是最有潜力的。
有价证券
下面我们列出市值超过 1 亿美元的普通股持仓。这些投资中有一小部分归属于伯克希尔持股不足 100% 的子公司。
| 公司 | 持股数 | 成本(千美元,省略 000) | 市值 12/31/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 可口可乐公司 | 46,700,000 | $ 517,500 | $ 1,377,375 |
| 大都会/美国广播公司 | 3,000,000 | 517,500 | 1,377,375 |
| 联邦住宅贷款抵押公司 | 2,400,000 | 1,023,920 | 2,171,550 |
| 《华盛顿邮报》公司 | 6,850,000 | 45,713 | 1,727,765 |
| GEICO 公司 | 5,000,000 | 71,729 | 1,110,556 |
| 富国银行 | 117,000 | 9,731 | 289,375 |
近乎怠惰的懒散,仍是我们投资风格的基石:今年我们既没有买进也没有卖出任何一笔大额投资——只有富国银行的头寸除外,其中一部分是 1989 年建立的,其余是 1990 年建立的。
银行业不是我们的最爱。当资产是权益的 20 倍时——这是业内常见的比率——只涉及一小部分资产的错误就可能摧毁大部分权益。
than that applying to alternative sources of funds, the value is negative. If the cost is lower, the value is positive — and if the cost is significantly lower, the insurance business qualifies as a very valuable asset. GEICO, in which our ownership interest is now 48% and which customarily operates at an underwriting So far Berkshire has fallen into the significantly-lower camp. Even more dramatic are the numbers at profit. GEICO's growth has generated an ever-larger amount of funds for investment that have an effective cost of considerably less than zero. Essentially, GEICO's policyholders, in aggregate, pay the company interest on the float rather than the other way around. (But handsome is as handsome does: GEICO's unusual that in turn allows rock-bottom prices for policyholders.) profitability results from its extraordinary operating efficiency and its careful classification of risks, a package combined with the tax penalty, produces negative results for owners. In addition, these companies, like all Many well-known insurance companies, on the other hand, incur an underwriting loss/float cost that, others in the industry, are vulnerable to catastrophe losses that could exceed their reinsurance protection and take their cost of float right off the chart. Unless these companies can materially improve their underwriting performance - and history indicates that is an almost impossible task - their shareholders on deposits than it receives on loans. will experience results similar to those borne by the owners of a bank that pays a higher rate of interest on the average is reasonable, and we have further prospered because we have earned good returns on these All in all, the insurance business has treated us very well. We have expanded our float at a cost that low-cost funds. Our shareholders, true, have incurred extra taxes, but they have been more than compensated mistakes made by your Chairman prior to Mike Goldberg's arrival. Insurance offers a host of opportunities A particularly encouraging point about our record is that it was achieved despite some colossal for error, and when opportunity knocked, too often I answered. Many years later, the bills keep arriving for these mistakes: In the insurance business, there is no statute of limitations on stupidity. value of, say, our candy or newspaper companies. By any measure, however, the business is worth far more The intrinsic value of our insurance business will always be far more difficult to calculate than the than its carrying value. Furthermore, despite the problems this operation periodically hands us, it is the one - among all the fine businesses we own - that has the greatest potential. Marketable Securities these investments belongs to subsidiaries of which Berkshire owns less than 100%. Below we list our common stock holdings having a value of over $100 million. A small portion of Shares Company Cost 12/31/90 Market 46,700,000 3,000,000 The Coca-Cola Co. Capital Cities/ABC, Inc... $ 517,500 (000s omitted) $1,377,375 2,400,000 6,850,000 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 1,023,920 2,171,550 5,000,000 1,727,765 The Washington Post Company GEICO Corp. ....... 45,713 71,729 1,110,556 117,000 9,731 Wells Fargo & Company • 289,431 342,097 289,375 Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style: This year we neither in 1989, the rest in 1990. in this industry - mistakes that involve only a small portion of assets can destroy a major portion of equity. The banking business is no favorite of ours. When assets are twenty times equity — a common ratio 15
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去年我们在讨论“机构强制力”时描述过一种管理缺陷:高管们盲目模仿同行的倾向,无论这种行为多么愚蠢。在许多大型银行,错误已成常态而非例外。大多数错误都源于这种旅鼠般的命运。在放贷中,许多银行家以旅鼠般的狂热追随领头者;如今他们正经历着旅鼠般的命运。
由于 20:1 的杠杆会放大管理层的优势和劣势,我们对以“便宜”价格买入一家管理不善的银行股份毫无兴趣。相反,我们唯一的兴趣是以合理价格买入管理良好的银行。
在富国银行,我们认为我们获得了业内最好的管理者——卡尔·赖卡特和保罗·哈赞。在很多方面,卡尔和保罗的组合让我想起另一对搭档——大都会/美国广播公司的汤姆·墨菲和丹·伯克。首先,每对搭档都强于各自之和,因为双方相互理解、信任和钦佩。其次,两支管理团队都给予能人优厚报酬,但厌恶超出必要的人员规模。第三,无论是在利润创纪录时还是面临压力时,他们都同样大举削减成本。最后,他们都坚持做自己理解的事,让能力而非自负决定他们尝试什么。(IBM 的老托马斯·J·沃森遵循同样的规则:“我不是天才,”他说,“我有些方面聪明——但我只待在这些方面!”)
1990 年我们对富国银行的收购,得益于银行股市场的混乱。这种混乱恰如其分:曾经备受推崇的银行一个接一个地公开暴露其愚蠢的贷款决策。随着一个又一个巨额亏损被披露——往往紧随着管理层“一切安好”的保证之后——投资者理所当然地认为没有哪家银行的数字可信。由于投资者逃离银行股,我们得以用 2.9 亿美元买下富国银行 10% 的股份,不到税后利润的 5 倍,不到税前利润的 3 倍。
富国银行规模庞大——拥有 560 亿美元资产——且一直实现超过 20% 的净资产收益率和 1.25% 的资产收益率。我们购买这家银行十分之一的股份,大体相当于我们全资收购一家具有相同财务特征的 50 亿美元银行。但如果我们要进行这样的收购,我们得支付大约我们为富国银行支付的 2.9 亿美元的两倍。此外,那家要求溢价的 50 亿美元银行,还会给我们带来另一个问题:我们无法找到一位卡尔·赖卡特来经营它。近年来,富国银行的高管比其他任何银行的高管都更被热切地挖角;然而,没有人能挖走这位“院长”。
当然,拥有一家银行——或几乎任何其他企业——远非无风险。加州银行面临重大地震的特定风险,这可能对借款人造成足够严重的破坏,进而摧毁向它们提供贷款的银行。第二个风险是系统性的——可能出现足够严重的经济衰退或金融恐慌,危及几乎所有高杠杆机构,无论其管理多么明智。最后,市场目前主要的担忧是西海岸的房地产价值将因过度建设而暴跌,并给为这种扩张提供融资的银行带来巨额亏损。由于富国银行是领先的房地产贷款机构,人们认为它尤其脆弱。
这些可能性都不能排除。然而,前两种发生的概率很低,而且即使是房地产价值的大幅下跌,也不太可能给管理良好的机构造成重大问题。算一笔账:富国银行目前每年税前利润远超过 10 亿美元,在扣除超过 3 亿美元的贷款损失准备金之后。如果该银行全部 480 亿美元贷款中的 10%——不仅仅是其房地产贷款——在 1991 年出现问题,并造成平均为本金 30% 的损失(包括放弃的利息),公司大致会盈亏平衡。
这样的一年——我们认为这只是一种极低概率的情形,而不是很可能发生的场景——不会让我们感到困扰。事实上,在伯克希尔,我们很乐意收购那些一年没有回报、但之后可以在不断增长的股本上预期获得 20% 收益的企业,或投资这类资本项目。
尽管如此,对加州出现类似新英格兰地区房地产灾难的担忧,导致富国银行股价在 1990 年几个月内下跌近 50%。尽管我们在下跌前的价格上已经买入了一些股票,但我们欢迎这次下跌,因为它让我们能够以新的恐慌价格买入更多股票。
那些预期在一生中会持续买入股票的投资者,应该采取类似的态度对待市场波动;相反,许多人在股价上涨时不合逻辑地变得兴高采烈。
a managerial failing that we described last year when discussing the "institutional imperative:" the tendency And mistakes have been the rule rather than the exception at many major banks. Most have resulted from of executives to mindlessly imitate the behavior of their peers, no matter how foolish it may be to do so. a lemming-like fate. In their lending, many bankers played follow-the-leader with lemming-like zeal; now they are experiencing Because leverage of 20:1 interest in purchasing shares of a poorly-managed bank at a "cheap" price. Instead, our only interest is in magnifies the effects of managerial strengths and weaknesses, we have no buying into well-managed banks at fair prices. Paul Hazen. In many ways the combination of Carl and Paul reminds me of another - Tom Murphy and With Wells Fargo, we think we have obtained the best managers in the business, Carl Reichardt and understands, trusts and admires the other. Second, both managerial teams pay able people well, but abhor Dan Burke at Capital Cities/ABC. First, each pair is stronger than the sum of its parts because each partner having a bigger head count than is needed. Third, both attack costs as vigorously when profits are at record levels as when they are under pressure. Finally, both stick with what they understand and let their abilities, not their egos, determine what they attempt. (Thomas ). Watson Sr. of IBM followed the same rule: "I'm no genius," he said. "I'm smart in spots - but I stay around those spots!") was appropriate: Month by month the foolish loan decisions of once well-regarded banks were put on Our purchases of Wells Fargo in 1990 were helped by a chaotic market in bank stocks. The disarray that all was well - investors understandably concluded that no bank's numbers were to be trusted. Aided public display. As one huge loss after another was unveiled - often on the heels of managerial assurances five times after-tax earnings, and less than three times pre-tax earnings. by their flight from bank stocks, we purchased our 10% interest in Wells Fargo for $290 million, less than and 1.25% on assets. Our purchase of one-tenth of the bank may be thought of as roughly equivalent to Wells Fargo is big — it has $56 billion in assets - and has been earning more than 20% on equity a purchase, we would have to pay about twice the $290 million we paid for Wells Fargo. Moreover, that $5 our buying 100% of a $5 billion bank with identical financial characteristics. But were we to make such to find a Carl Reichardt to run it. In recent years, Wells Fargo executives have been more avidly recruited billion bank, commanding a premium price, would present us with another problem: We would not be able than any others in the banking business; no one, however, has been able to hire the dean. face the specific risk of a major earthquake, which might wreak enough havoc on borrowers to in turn Of course, ownership of a bank — or about any other business - is far from riskless. California banks or financial panic so severe that it would endanger almost every highly-leveraged institution, no matter how destroy the banks lending to them. A second risk is systemic - the possibility of a business contraction tumble because of overbuilding and deliver huge losses to banks that have financed the expansion. Because intelligently run. Finally, the market's major fear of the moment is that West Coast real estate values will it is a leading real estate lender, Wells Fargo is thought to be particularly vulnerable. low and even a meaningful drop in real estate values is unlikely to cause major problems for well-managed None of these eventualities can be ruled out. The probability of the first two occurring, however, is institutions. Consider some mathematics: Wells Fargo currently earns well over $1 billion pre-tax annually just its real estate loans - were hit by problems in 1991, and these produced losses (including foregone after expensing more than $300 million for loan losses. If 10% of all $48 billion of the bank's loans — not interest) averaging 30% of principal, the company would roughly break even. distress us. In fact, at Berkshire we would love to acquire businesses or invest in capital projects that A year like that — which we consider only a low-level possibility, not a likelihood - would not Nevertheless, fears of a California real estate disaster similar to that experienced in New England caused produced no return for a year, but that could then be expected to earn 20% on growing equity. the price of Wells Fargo stock to fall almost 50% within a few months during 1990. Even though we had bought some shares at the prices prevailing before the fall, we welcomed the decline because it allowed us to pick up many more shares at the new, panic prices. similar attitude toward market fluctuations; instead many illogically become euphoric when stock prices Investors who expect to be ongoing buyers of investments throughout their lifetimes should adopt a 16
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他们永远是食品的买家,欢迎价格下跌,谴责价格上涨。(股价上涨他们就高兴,下跌就难过。可他们在食品价格上却毫不糊涂:因为他们知道,食品卖家不喜欢降价。)同样道理,在《布法罗新闻》,我们会为新闻纸价格下跌而欢呼——哪怕这意味着我们手头大量库存的新闻纸要减值——因为我们知道,我们会永远地持续买入这个产品。同样的逻辑也指导着我们对伯克希尔投资的思考。只要我活着,我就会一年接一年地买入企业或企业的一小部分——也就是股票(如果伯克希尔的董事们能按我安排好的日程参加通灵会,那在我身后还会继续买)。既然有这个意图,企业价格下跌对我们有利,价格上涨反而伤害我们。
低价最常见的成因是悲观情绪——有时是弥漫性的,有时只针对某个公司或行业。我们希望在这样的环境里做生意,不是因为我们喜欢悲观,而是因为我们喜欢悲观带来的价格。乐观才是理性买家的敌人。
但这绝不意味着,一只股票或一家企业仅仅因为不受欢迎就值得买入;跟着人潮走是愚蠢的,跟人潮反着走也同样愚蠢。需要的是思考,而不是随大溜。遗憾的是,伯特兰·罗素对生活的一般观察在金融世界里格外适用:“大多数人宁愿去死也不愿思考。很多人确实如此。”
我们去年投资组合的另一个重大变化是大幅增持了 RJR 纳贝斯克债券——这些证券我们最早是在 1989 年底买入的。1990 年底,我们在这类证券上投了 4.4 亿美元,金额接近市场价值。(但在我写这封信的时候,其市场价值又上涨了超过 1.5 亿美元。)
买入银行股对我们来说是少见的,买入低于投资级的债券同样少见。但那种既能引起我们兴趣、又大到足以对伯克希尔业绩产生有意义影响的机会很少。因此,只要是我们理解的业务,并且我们相信价格和价值可能存在显著差异,我们就会关注任何类别的投资。(伍迪·艾伦在另一个场合指出了思想开放的好处:“我不明白为什么更多人不是双性恋——那能让周六晚上约到姑娘的机会翻倍。”)
过去我们成功买过一些低于投资级的债券,但那些都是传统的“堕落天使”——最初属于投资级,后来因发行公司陷入困境而被降级的债券。在 1984 年的年报里,我们描述过买入一只“堕落天使”——华盛顿公共电力供应系统债券的理由。
20 世纪 80 年代,一种变异的“堕落天使”闯入了投资舞台——“垃圾债券”,它们发行时就是远低于投资级的。随着这十年过去,新发行的制造出来的垃圾越来越垃圾,最终可预见的结果发生了:垃圾债券名副其实。1990 年——甚至在经济衰退袭来之前——企业倒闭的尸骸就铺满了金融天空。
债务的信徒们向我们保证这种崩溃不会发生:他们告诉我们,巨额债务会迫使经营管理者前所未有地专注,就像在方向盘上绑一把匕首只会让司机开得更谨慎。我们承认,这种注意力装置确实会产生一个非常警觉的司机。但另一个必然结果是,如果车子哪怕撞到最小的坑或一小块冰,都会酿成致命且不必要的车祸。商业的道路上遍布坑洼;一个要求躲避所有坑洼的计划,就是一个灾难计划。
在《聪明的投资者》最后一章,本·格雷厄姆有力地驳斥了匕首理论:“如果有人想用三个字概括稳健投资的秘诀,我们斗胆献上这句座右铭:安全边际。”读完这段话四十二年后,我仍然认为那三个字是对的。
投资者未能听从这条简单的忠告,在 20 世纪 90 年代初遭受了惨重损失。在债务狂潮的最高峰,资本结构被设计得注定失败:有些案例中,发行了如此之多的债务,以至于即使经营结果极为有利,也无法产生足够的资金来偿还债务。几年前有一个特别恶劣的“出生即扼杀”案例,牵涉对……的收购^17。
they are forever going to be buyers of food, they welcome falling prices and deplore price increases. (It's rise and unhappy when they fall. They show no such confusion in their reaction to food prices: Knowing the seller of food who doesn't like declining prices.) Similarly, at the Buffalo News we would cheer lower we always keep on hand - because we know we are going to be perpetually buying the product. prices for newsprint - even though it would mean marking down the value of the large inventory of newsprint or small parts of businesses, called stocks — year in, year out as long as I live (and longer, if Berkshire's Identical reasoning guides our thinking about Berkshire's investments. We will be buying businesses — directors attend the seances I have scheduled). Given these intentions, declining prices for businesses benefit us, and rising prices hurt us. a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism The most common cause of low prices is pessimism - some times pervasive, some times specific to but because we like the prices it produces. It's optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer. unpopular; a contrarian approach is just as foolish as a follow-the-crowd strategy. What's required is thinking None of this means, however, that a business or stock is an intelligent purchase simply because it is rather than polling. Unfortunately, Bertrand Russell's observation about life in general applies with unusual force in the financial world: "Most men would rather die than think. Many do."
securities that we first bought in late 1989. At yearend 1990 we had $440 million invested in these securities, Our other major portfolio change last year was large additions to our holdings of RJR Nabisco bonds, than $150 million.) an amount that approximated market value. (As I write this, however, their market value has risen by more bonds. But opportunities that interest us and that are also large enough to have a worthwhile impact on Just as buying into the banking business is unusual for us, so is the purchase of below-investment-grade the business we're buying into and believe that price and value may differ significantly. (Woody Allen, in Berkshire's results are rare. Therefore, we will look at any category of investment, so long as we understand bi-sexual because it doubles your chances for a date on Saturday night.") another context, pointed out the advantage of open-mindedness: "I can't understand why more people aren't old-fashioned "fallen angels" - bonds that were initially of investment grade but that were downgraded In the past we have bought a few below-investment-grade bonds with success, though these were all when the issuers fell on bad times. In the 1984 annual report we described our rationale for buying one fallen angel, the Washington Public Power Supply System. were far below investment-grade when issued. As the decade progressed, new offerings of manufactured A kind of bastardized fallen angel burst onto the investment scene in the 1980s - "junk bonds' that name. In 1990 — even before the recession dealt its blows - the financial sky became dark with the bodies junk became ever junkier and ultimately the predictable outcome occurred: Junk bonds lived up to their of failing corporations. cause operating managers to focus their efforts as never before, much as a dagger mounted on the steering The disciples of debt assured us that this collapse wouldn't happen: Huge debt, we were told, would such an attention-getter would produce a very alert driver. But another certain consequence would be a wheel of a car could be expected to make its driver proceed with intensified care. We'll acknowledge that deadly - and unnecessary - accident if the car hit even the tiniest pothole or sliver of ice. The roads of business are riddled with potholes; a plan that requires dodging them all is a plan for disaster. "Confronted with a challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the In the final chapter of The Intelligent Investor Ben Graham forcefully rejected the dagger thesis: The failure of investors to heed this simple message caused them staggering losses as the 1990s began. motto, Margin of Safety." Forty-two years after reading that, I still think those are the right three words. cases, so much debt was issued that even highly favorable business results could not produce the funds At the height of the debt mania, capital structures were concocted that guaranteed failure: In some to service it. One particularly egregious "kill-'em-at-birth" case a few years back involved the purchase of 17
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我们在坦帕买下了一家业已成熟的电视台,收购时借了那么多债,利息甚至超过了电视台的总毛收入。就算假设所有的人力、节目和服务都是免费捐赠而非购买的,这种资本结构仍需要收入突飞猛进——否则这家电视台注定要破产。(为这笔收购融资的许多债券,都卖给了现已倒闭的储蓄和贷款协会;作为纳税人,你正在为这种愚蠢行为买单。)
这一切如今看来都不可思议。然而,当这些不当行为发生时,那些兜售毒药的投行家们援引了学术界的“学术”研究,这些研究报告称,多年来从低等级债券中获得的更高利率,已足以弥补其更高的违约率。因此,友善的推销员说,一个多元化的垃圾债券组合比高等级债券组合会产生更高的净回报。(小心金融领域里那些用“历史业绩”来当“证据”的把戏:如果历史书是通往财富的钥匙,那福布斯美国 400 富豪榜上就该全是图书管理员了。)
推销员的这套逻辑存在一个缺陷——这个缺陷是统计学大一学生就会被教着去识别的。他们隐含地假定,新发垃圾债券这个群体与那些坠入低等级的“坠落天使”是同一个群体,因此后者的历史违约经验,对于预测新发债券的违约经验是有意义的。(这个错误就好比,在喝下琼斯镇调出来的那批酷爱饮料之前,先去查查酷爱饮料的历史死亡率。)
这两个群体当然在几个关键方面都不相同。首先,“坠落天使”的管理者几乎无一例外地渴望重获投资级地位,并朝着这个目标努力。而垃圾债券的操盘手通常是截然不同的另类人。其行事很像海洛因成瘾者,他从不寻求为自己债务缠身的状态找到解药,只一门心思想着再来一针。
此外,经营典型的“坠落天使”公司的高管们所具备的受托人责任感,通常——尽管不总是——比那些发行垃圾债券的金融狂人更为细腻。
华尔街对这些差别毫不在意。和往常一样,华尔街对一个想法的热情,只看它能带来多少收入,从不问这个想法本身有多少优点。成堆的垃圾债券被那些不关心后果的人,卖给了那些不动脑筋的人——而这两类人从来都供应充足。
正如我们去年所说,我们从未买过新发行的垃圾债券。(要买这些债券,唯一合适的时机是一周当中没有字母“y”的那天。)不过,趁这个领域如今已深陷混乱,我们愿意去瞧一瞧。垃圾债券依然是一片雷区,即使今天的价格往往只是发行价的一个零头。
就 RJR 纳贝斯克公司而言,我们感觉该公司的信用状况比市场一度普遍认知的要好得多,我们收到的收益率,以及潜在的资本利得,足以补偿我们所承担的风险(尽管风险远非为零)。RJR 已以优厚的价格出售了资产,大幅增加了权益资本,并且总体上经营得不错。
然而,当我们审视整个领域时,大多数低等级债券看起来仍然没有吸引力。1980 年代华尔街的“杰作”比我们当初想的还要糟糕:许多重要的企业已受到致命创伤。不过,随着垃圾债券市场继续分崩离析,我们会持续寻找机会。
可转换优先股
我们继续持有此前报告中所描述的可转换优先股:所罗门公司 7 亿美元,吉列公司 3.58 亿美元,全美航空公司 3 亿美元,以及冠军国际公司 3 亿美元。我们持有的吉列优先股将于 4 月 1 日转换为 1200 万股普通股。综合考量利率、信用质量以及相关普通股的价格,我们评估,1990 年底我们持有的所罗门和冠军国际,其价值大致相当于我们的买入价,吉列略高于买入价,而全美航空则大幅低于买入价。
在买入全美航空时,你们的董事长展示了一种绝妙的选时能力:我几乎是在这家公司撞上严重麻烦的同一瞬间,纵身跳进了这个行业。(没人逼我;用网球术语来说,我犯下了一次“非受迫性失误”。)公司的麻烦,既源于行业大环境,也源于其并购皮埃蒙特航空后遭遇的整合难题,而这本是我早该预料到的病痛,因为几乎所有航空公司的合并,其后无不伴随运营上的混乱。
a mature television station in Tampa, bought with so much debt that the interest on it exceeded the station's gross revenues. Even if you assume that all labor, programs and services were donated rather than purchased, this capital structure required revenues to explode — or else the station was doomed to go broke. (Many of the bonds that financed the purchase were sold to now-failed savings and loan associations; as a taxpayer, you are picking up the tab for this folly.) bankers pointed to the "scholarly" research of academics, which reported that over the years the higher All of this seems impossible now. When these misdeeds were done, however, dagger-selling investment interest rates received from low-grade bonds had more than compensated for their higher rate of default. than would a portfolio of high-grade bonds. (Beware of past-performance "proofs" in finance: If history books Thus, said the friendly salesmen, a diversified portfolio of junk bonds would produce greater net returns were the key to riches, the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians.) recognize. An assumption was being made that the universe of newly-minted junk bonds was identical to There was a flaw in the salesmen's logic - one that a first-year student in statistics is taught to the universe of low-grade fallen angels and that, therefore, the default experience of the latter group was the historical death rate from Kool-Aid before drinking the version served at jonestown.) meaningful in predicting the default experience of the new issues. (That was an error similar to checking angel almost invariably yearned to regain investment-grade status and worked toward that goal. The junk- The universes were of course dissimilar in several vital respects. For openers, the manager of a fallen bond operator was usually an entirely different breed. Behaving much as a heroin user might, he devoted his energies not to finding a cure for his debt-ridden condition, but rather to finding another fix. not always, more finely developed than were those of the junk-bond-issuing financiopath. Additionally, the fiduciary sensitivities of the executives managing the typical fallen angel were often, though proportional not to its merit, but rather to the revenue it would produce. Mountains of junk bonds were Wall Street cared little for such distinctions. As usual, the Street's enthusiasm for an idea was sold by those who didn't care to those who didn't think - and there was no shortage of either. As we said last year, we have never bought a new issue of a junk bond. (The only time to buy these is Junk bonds remain a mine field, even at prices that today are often a small fraction of issue price. on a day with no "y" in it.) We are, however, willing to look at the field, now that it is in disarray. In the case of RJR Nabisco, we feel the Company's credit is considerably better than was generally compensates for the risk we incur (though that is far from nil). RJR has made asset sales at favorable perceived for a while and that the yield we receive, as well as the potential for capital gain, more than prices, has added major amounts of equity, and in general is being run well. Wall Street of the 1980s is even worse than we had thought: Many important businesses have been However, as we survey the field, most low-grade bonds still look unattractive. The handiwork of the mortally wounded. We will, though, keep looking for opportunities as the junk market continues to unravel. Convertible Preferred Stocks Salomon Inc, $600 million of The Gillette Company, $358 million of USAir Group, Inc. and $300 million We continue to hold the convertible preferred stocks described in earlier reports: $700 million of of Champion International Corp. Our Gillette holdings will be converted into 12 million shares of common assess our holdings in Salomon and Champion at yearend 1990 as worth about what we paid, Gillette as stock on April 1. Weighing interest rates, credit quality and prices of the related common stocks, we can worth somewhat more, and USAir as worth substantially less. at almost the exact moment that it ran into severe problems. (No one pushed me; in tennis parlance, I In making the USAir purchase, your Chairman displayed exquisite timing: I plunged into the business by the post-merger difficulties it encountered in integrating Piedmont, an affliction I should have expected committed an "unforced error") The company's troubles were brought on both by industry conditions and since almost all airline mergers have been followed by operational turmoil. 18
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服务评分优秀。但事实证明,整个行业的麻烦要严重得多。我们收购后不久,航空业的经济状况便以惊人的速度恶化,某些航空公司的自杀式定价策略更是雪上加霜。这种定价给所有承运商带来的麻烦说明了一个重要真理:在销售大宗商品型产品的行业里,你不可能比最笨的竞争对手聪明太多。埃德·科洛尼和塞思·斯科菲尔德果断通过在运营上做出重大调整来应对当前的动荡。即便如此,我们的投资现在比我当初买入时更没有保障。然而,除非该行业在未来几年内遭受重创,否则我们在全美航空的投资应该能安然无恙。
我们的可转换优先股是相对简单的证券,不过我还是要提醒你,如果过去的情况可供参考,你偶尔会读到关于它们的不准确或误导性的陈述。例如,去年有几位媒体人士计算我们所有优先股的价值时,直接将其等同于它们可转换成的普通股的价值。按照他们的逻辑,也就是说,我们所罗门的优先股——可按每股 38 美元转换为普通股——在所罗门普通股售价为 22.80 美元时,就只值面值的 60%。但这种推理有一个小问题:按照这种逻辑,人们必然得出结论,可转换优先股的全部价值都来自转换权,而所罗门非可转换优先股的价值,无论其票面利率或赎回条款如何,都将是零。你应该记住的重点是:我们可转换优先股的大部分价值来自其固定收益特征。这意味着这些证券的价值不可能低于它们作为非可转换优先股所拥有的价值,并且由于它们的转换选择权,可能还值更多。
- * * * *
我深感遗憾,不得不在本报告的这一部分写下关于我朋友科尔曼·莫克勒的悼念,他于一月去世,生前担任吉列的 CEO。没有哪个词比"绅士"更适合科尔曼了——这个词代表着正直、勇气和谦逊。将这些品质与他所拥有的幽默感和非凡的商业才能结合起来,你就会明白为什么我认为与他共事是一种纯粹的享受,以及为什么我、以及所有认识他的人,会如此怀念科尔曼。
科尔曼去世前几天,吉列在《福布斯》的一篇封面文章中受到高度赞扬。文章的主题很简单:该公司在剃须产品上的成功并非来自营销技巧(尽管它确实反复展现了这种才能),而是源于其对品质的执着追求。这种心态促使它持续专注于推出更好的产品,即便其现有产品已经堪称行业翘楚。《福布斯》如此描绘吉列,实则画出了科尔曼的肖像。
求助!求助!
老读者都知道,我厚着脸皮利用年度报告来寻找我们想收购的企业。正如我们在《布法罗新闻》一直宣扬的那样,广告确实有效:有几家企业敲开我们的门,就是因为有人在报告里读到了我们有意收购的信息。(任何优秀的广告销售都会告诉你,试图卖东西却不做广告,就像在黑暗中朝女孩眨眼睛。)
在附录 B(第 26-27 页)中,我重现了几年前我写给一家理想企业的所有者兼经营者的一封信的核心内容。如果你本人与可能令我们感兴趣的企业没有直接联系,但你有朋友有,也许你可以把这份报告转交给他。
以下是我们寻找的企业类型:
(1)大额收购(税后利润至少 1000 万美元),
(2)具有持续且可证明的盈利能力(我们对未来预测不感兴趣,对"困境反转"的情况也不感兴趣),
(3)在几乎没有或完全没有负债的情况下,能获得良好净资产收益率的企业,
excellent marks for service. Industry-wide problems have proved to be far more serious. Since our purchase, In short order, Ed Colodny and Seth Schofield resolved the second problem: The airline now gets the economics of the airline industry have deteriorated at an alarming pace, accelerated by the kamikaze pricing tactics of certain carriers. The trouble this pricing has produced for all carriers illustrates an important truth: In a business selling a commodity-type product, it's impossible to be a lot smarter than your dumbest competitor. work out all right. Ed and Seth have decisively addressed the current turbulence by making major changes However, unless the industry is decimated during the next few years, our USAir investment should in operations. Even so, our investment is now less secure than at the time I made it. is any guide, you may from time to time read inaccurate or misleading statements about them. Last year, Our convertible preferred stocks are relatively simple securities, yet I should warn you that, if the past for example, several members of the press calculated the value of all our preferreds as equal to that of the common stock into which they are convertible. By their logic, that is, our Salomon preferred, convertible there is a small problem with this line of reasoning: Using it, one must conclude that all of the value of into common at $38, would be worth 60% of face value if Salomon common were selling at $22.80. But a convertible preferred resides in the conversion privilege and that the value of a non-convertible preferred of Salomon would be zero, no matter what its coupon or terms for redemption. from their fixed-income characteristics. That means the securities cannot be worth less than the value they The point you should keep in mind is that most of the value of our convertible preferreds is derived would possess as non-convertible preferreds and may be worth more because of their conversion options. *** * * * *
]r., CEO of Gillette, who died in January. No description better fitted Colman than "gentleman" — a word I deeply regret having to end this section of the report with a note about my friend, Colman Mockler, signifying integrity, courage and modesty. Couple these qualities with the humor and exceptional business him and why I, and all others who knew him, will miss Colman so much. ability that Colman possessed and you can understand why I thought it an undiluted pleasure to work with simple: The company's success in shaving products has come not from marketing savvy (though it exhibits A few days before Colman died, Gillette was richly praised in a Forbes cover story. Its theme was that talent repeatedly) but has instead resulted from its devotion to quality. This mind-set has caused it to ranked as the class of the field. In so depicting Gillette, Forbes in fact painted a portrait of Colman. consistently focus its energies on coming up with something better, even though its existing products already Help! Help! for Berkshire. And, as we constantly preach at the Buffalo News, advertising does work: Several businesses Regular readers know that I shamelessly utilize the annual letter in an attempt to acquire businesses have knocked on our door because someone has read in these pages of our interest in making acquisitions. (Any good ad salesman will tell you that trying to sell something without advertising is like winking at a girl in the dark.) the owner/manager of a desirable business. If you have no personal connection with a business that might In Appendix B (on pages 26 - 27) I've reproduced the essence of a letter I wrote a few years back to be of interest to us but have a friend who does, perhaps you can pass this report along to him. Here's the sort of business we are looking for: (1) Large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings), "turnaround" situations), Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are (3) Businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt, 19
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(4)管理层到位(我们无法提供),
(5)业务简单明了(如果涉及太多技术,我们就理解不了),
(6)开价明确(我们不想浪费自己和卖家的时间,在价格未知的情况下连初步讨论都不会进行)。
我们承诺完全保密并迅速答复——通常会在五分钟内告诉您我们是否有兴趣。我们倾向于现金收购,但如果我们获得的内在商业价值与付出的相当,也会考虑发行股票。
我们不会参与敌意收购。我们承诺完全保密并迅速答复。
我们最喜欢的收购模式是布拉姆金-弗里德曼-赫尔德曼式。在这类案例中,公司的所有者兼经理人希望产生大量现金,有时是为了自己,但更多时候是为了家人或不参与经营的股东。同时,这些经理人希望继续作为重要股东,像过去那样经营公司。我们认为,对于有此类目标的股东,我们特别合适。我们邀请潜在卖家通过联系与我们有过业务往来的人来了解我们。
查理和我经常接到一些收购提议,它们根本不符合我们的标准。我们发现,如果你登广告说想买柯利牧羊犬,会有很多人打电话来,想卖给你他们的可卡猎犬。一句乡村歌曲的歌词表达了我们对新业务、扭亏为盈或拍卖式出售的感受:“要是电话不再响,你就知道那是我打来的。”
除了收购上述类型的业务,我们还对通过协商大量买入但不控股的股权感兴趣,类似于我们持有大都会/美国广播公司、所罗门兄弟、吉列、全美航空和冠军国际的股份。不过,我们对有关在公开市场上购买股票的建议没有兴趣。
杂项
肯·蔡斯决定不在我们即将召开的股东大会上竞选连任董事。我们对伯克希尔的董事没有强制退休年龄(也不会设!),但肯今年 75 岁,住在缅因州,他只是想减少活动量。
巴菲特合伙有限公司在 1965 年初取得伯克希尔控制权后,肯是我经营纺织业务的首选。尽管坚持纺织业务是个经济错误,但选择肯没错:他经营得很好,对问题始终百分之百坦诚,而且他创造的现金让我们得以多元化进入保险业。
我的妻子苏珊将被提名为肯的继任者。她目前是伯克希尔的第二大股东,如果她比我长寿,将继承我所有的股票,实际上将控制公司。她了解并认同我对继任管理层的想法,也持同样的观点:伯克希尔、其子公司及重要投资,都不应仅仅因为有人开出极高的收购价就被出售——需要补充的是,这个观点相当好,我也已据此做了安排。我强烈认为,我们旗下业务及其经理人的命运不应取决于我的健康状况——顺便说一下,我的健康极佳——我也已据此做了相应规划。无论是我还是我妻子的遗产计划,都不是为了保留家族财富,两者都旨在保持伯克希尔的品格,并将财富回馈社会。
如果我明天去世,你们可以确信三件事:(1)我的股票一股都不需要卖;(2)会有一位理念相似的控股股东和一位经理人接替我;(3)伯克希尔的年利润将增加 100 万美元,因为查理会立即卖掉我们的公司专机“无可辩驳号”(无视我希望它陪我入土的愿望)。
约 97.3% 的合格股份参与了伯克希尔 1990 年股东指定捐款计划。通过该计划捐出的款项为 580 万美元,惠及 2,600 家慈善机构。
(4) Management in place (we can't supply it), (5). Simple businesses (if there's lots of technology, we won't understand it, 16) preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown). An offering price (we don't want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even answer — customarily within five minutes — as to whether we're interested. We preter to buy for cash, but We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast Will consider issuing stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. the company's owner-managers wish to generate significant amounts of cash, sometimes for themselves, Our favorite form of purchase is one fitting the Blumkin-Friedman-Heldman mold. In cases like these, but often for their families or inactive shareholders. significant owners who continue to run their companies just as they have in the past. We think we offer At the same time, these managers wish to remain contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. a particularly good fit for owners with such objectives. We invite potential sellers to check us out by We've found that if you advertise an interest in buying collies, a lot of people will call hoping to sell you Charlie and I frequently get approached about acquisitions that don't come close to meeting our tests: their cocker spaniels. A line from a country song expresses our feeling about new ventures, turnarounds, or auction-like sales: "When the phone don't ring, you'll know it's me." Besides being interested in the purchase of businesses as described above, we the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock comparable to those we hold in Capital are also interested in Cities, Salomon, Gillette, USAir, and Champion. We are not interested, however, in receiving suggestions about purchases we might make in the general stock market. Miscellaneous have no mandatory retirement age for directors at Berkshire (and won't!), but Ken, at 75 and living in Ken Chace has decided not to stand for reelection as a director at our upcoming annual meeting. We Maine, simply decided to cut back his activities. control of Berkshire early in 1965. Although I made an economic mistake in sticking with the textile Ken was my immediate choice to run the textile operation after Buffett Partnership, Ltd. assumed business, I made no mistake in choosing Ken: He ran the operation well, he was always 100% straight with me about its problems, and he generated the funds that allowed us to diversify into insurance. Berkshire and if she outlives me will inherit all of my stock and, effectively, control the company. She knows, My wife, Susan, will be nominated to succeed Ken. She is now the second largest shareholder of and agrees, with my thoughts on successor management and also shares my view that neither Berkshire is received for one or all. nor its subsidiary businesses and important investments should be sold simply because some very high bid which, it should be added, is excellent - and I have planned accordingly. Neither my estate plan nor that I feel strongly that the fate of our businesses and their managers should not depend on my health - of my wife is designed to preserve the family fortune; instead, both are aimed at preserving the character of Berkshire and returning the fortune to society. sold; (2) Both a controlling shareholder and a manager with philosophies similar to mine would follow Were I to die tomorrow, you could be sure of three things: (1) None of my stock would have to be sell our corporate jet, The Indefensible (ignoring my wish that it be buried with me). me; and (3) Berkshire's earnings would increase by $1 million annually, since Charlie would immediately
program. Contributions made through the program were $5.8 million, and 2,600 charities were recipients. About 97.3% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 1990 shareholder-designated contributions 20
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我们建议新股东阅读第 54–55 页关于“股东指定捐赠计划”的说明。要参与未来的计划,您必须确保您的股份以实际所有人的名义登记,而不是以经纪商、银行或存管机构的代名人名义登记。截至 1991 年 8 月 31 日仍未照此登记的股份,将没有资格参与 1991 年的计划。
除了伯克希尔分发的股东指定捐赠外,我们旗下经营公司的管理者也会进行捐赠,包括商品在内,每年平均约 150 万美元。这些捐赠支持当地慈善机构,例如联合劝募会(The United Way),并为我们的企业带来大致相称的益处。
然而,无论是我们的经营公司经理还是母公司的管理人员,都不会使用伯克希尔的资金,向全国性项目或他们个人特别感兴趣的慈善活动捐款,除非他们是以股东身份这样做。如果你的员工,包括你的 CEO,希望向母校或其他他们个人有感情联系的机构捐款,我们认为他们应该用自己的钱,而不是你的钱。
- * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
今年的股东大会将于 1991 年 4 月 29 日星期一上午 9:30 在奥马哈市中心的奥菲姆剧院(Orpheum Theater)举行。去年参会人数创下纪录,达到 1,300 人,大约是十年前的 100 倍。
我们建议您提早预订以下酒店之一:(1)雷迪森-雷迪克大厦酒店(Radisson-Redick Tower),一家小巧(88 间房)但舒适的酒店,就在奥菲姆剧院对面;(2)规模大得多的红狮酒店(Red Lion Hotel),距奥菲姆剧院步行约五分钟;或(3)万豪酒店(Marriott),位于西奥马哈,距博尔斯海姆珠宝(Borsheim's)约 100 码,距市中心二十分钟车程。我们将在万豪安排巴士,于上午 8:30 和 8:45 出发前往会场,会后返回。
查理和我始终很享受这次会议,也希望您能到场。我们股东的高素质反映在提问质量上:我们从未在任何地方参加过哪家公司的股东大会,能像我们这样持续涌现如此高水平的、以股东利益为导向的聪明问题。
我们的代理材料中有一份附件,说明了如何获取参会所需的入场卡。由于工作日奥菲姆剧院周边停车位可能紧张,我们已为股东协调了附近的多个停车场。
附件中还包含有关这些停车场的信息。
像往常一样,会后我们将安排巴士送您前往内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart)和博尔斯海姆珠宝,之后再送往市中心酒店或机场。我希望您留出充裕时间,充分领略这两家店的魅力。提前到达的股东可在周一至周六任何一天前往家具城(营业时间为上午 10 点至下午 5:30,周日为中午 12 点至下午 5:30)。到了那里,不妨在喜诗糖果(See's Candy)售货推车旁驻足,亲眼见证伯克希尔协同效应的曙光。博尔斯海姆珠宝通常周日不营业,但我们将在 4 月 28 日周日中午 12 点至下午 6 点专门为股东及来宾开放。去年我们周日营业时,您让艾克(Ike)开心极了:在算完当天营业额后,他向我提议,我们应该改成每季度召开一次股东大会。请来博尔斯海姆做客吧,即便只是来凑热闹也行;这是一场您不应错过的好戏。
去年股东大会上,第一个提问的是 11 岁的尼古拉斯·肯纳(Nicholas Kenner),一位来自纽约市的第三代股东。尼古拉斯直击要害:“股价怎么跌了?”他朝我开了火。我的回答不值一提。
我们希望其他事务不至于让尼古拉斯缺席今年的会议。如果他来了,我们会让他再次获得率先提问的机会;查理和我想趁我们精神头正好的时候接他的招。不过,今年轮到查理来回答了。
沃伦·E·巴菲特
1991 年 3 月 1 日
董事会主席
program that appears on pages 54 - 55. To participate in future programs, you must make sure your We suggest that new shareholders read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 1991 will be ineligible for the 1991 program. operating businesses make contributions, including merchandise, averaging about $1.5 million annually. In addition to the shareholder-designated contributions that Berkshire distributes, managers of our These contributions support local charities, such as The United Way, and produce roughly commensurate benefits for our businesses. make contributions to broad national programs or charitable activities of special personal interest to them, However, neither our operating managers nor officers of the parent company use Berkshire funds to their alma maters or other institutions to which they feel a personal attachment, we believe they should except to the extent they do so as shareholders. If your employees, including your CEO, wish to give to use their own money, not yours. *****+* on Monday, April 29, 1991. Attendance last year grew to a record 1,300, about a 100-fold increase from The annual meeting this year will be held at the Orpheum Theater in downtown Omaha at 9:30 a.m. ten years ago. Tower, a small (88 rooms) but nice hotel across the street from the Orpheum; (2) the much larger Red We recommend getting your hotel reservations early at one of these hotels: (1) The Radisson-Redick Omaha about 100 yards from Borsheim's and a twenty minute drive from downtown. We will have buses Lion Hotel, located about a five-minute walk from the Orpheum; or (3) the Marriott, located in West at the Marriott that will leave at 8:30 and 8:45 for the meeting, and return after it ends. is reflected in the quality of the questions we get: We have never attended an annual meeting anywhere Charlie and I always enjoy the meeting, and we hope you can make it. The quality of our shareholders that features such a consistently high level of intelligent, owner-related questions. to the meeting. Because weekday parking can be tight around the Orpheum, we have lined up a number An attachment to our proxy material explains how you can obtain the card you will need for admission of nearby lots for our shareholders to use. The attachment also contains information about them. and to take you to downtown hotels or to the airport later. I hope that you will allow plenty of time to As usual, we will have buses to take you to Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheim's after the meeting fully explore the attractions of both stores. Those of you arriving early can visit the Furniture Mart any Sundays. While there, stop at the See's Candy cart and see for yourself the dawn of synergism at Berkshire. day of the week; it is open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on Saturdays, and from noon to 5:30 p.m. on Borsheim's normally is closed on Sunday, but we will open for shareholders and their guests from noon the day's volume, he suggested to me that we start holding annual meetings quarterly. Join us at Borsheim's to 6 p.m. on Sunday, April 28. At our Sunday opening last year you made Ike very happy: After totaling even if you just come to watch; it's a show you shouldn't miss. generation shareholder from New York City. Nicholas plays rough: "How come the stock is down?" he Last year the first question at the annual meeting was asked by 11-year-old Nicholas Kenner, a third- fired at me. My answer was not memorable. attends, he will be offered the chance to again ask the first question; Charlie and I want to tackle him while We hope that other business engagements won't keep Nicholas away from this year's meeting. If he we're fresh. This year, however, it's Charlie's turn to answer. Warren E. Buffett March 1, 1991 Chairman of the Board 21
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附录 A
美国钢铁公司宣布全面现代化计划*
Myron C. Taylor,美国钢铁公司董事长,今日宣布了期待已久的计划,旨在全面现代化这个世界上最大的工业企业。与外界预期相反,制造或销售政策将不会有任何变动。相反,会计系统将彻底翻新。通过采纳并进一步改进一系列现代会计和财务手段,公司的盈利能力将发生惊人转变。即便在 1935 年的非正常条件下,据估算,新的会计方法也能让普通股报告的每股利润接近 50 美元。这项改进计划是 Price、Bacon、Guthrie & Colpitts 公司的全面调查结果,包括以下六点:
- 将工厂账户减记至负 10 亿美元。
- 普通股面值降至 14 美分。
- 所有工资和薪水以期权认股权证支付。
- 存货按 1 美元计价。
- 优先股替换为无息债券,可按 50% 折扣赎回。
- 设立 10 亿美元或有储备金。
这项非凡现代化计划的官方声明全文如下:
美国钢铁公司董事会很高兴地宣布,经过对行业环境变化所引发问题的深入研究,董事会已批准一项全面计划,用以改造公司的会计方法。由特别委员会借助 Price、Bacon、Guthrie & Colpitts 公司协助进行的调查显示,本公司在运用某些先进簿记方法方面落后于其他美国企业。通过这些方法,盈利能力可以得到惊人提升,而无需任何现金支出或改变运营与销售条件。董事会决定不仅采纳这些新方法,更要将其发展到更高完美阶段。董事会采纳的变更可归纳为以下六点:
1. 固定资产减记至负 10 亿美元。
许多代表性公司已通过将工厂账户减记至 1 美元的方法,使损益表免除了所有折旧费用。特别委员会指出,如果它们的工厂只值 1 美元,那么美国钢铁公司的固定资产价值远低于此数。如今一个公认的事实是,许多工厂实际上是负债而非资产,不仅带来折旧费用,还涉及维护及其他支出。因此,董事会决定扩展 1935 年报告中启动的减记政策,将固定资产从 1,338,522,858.96 美元减记至一个整数:负 10 亿美元。
此举的优势显而易见。随着工厂损耗,负债会相应减少。因此,与目前每年约 4700 万美元的折旧费用不同,未来将产生 5%(即 5000 万美元)的年度增值收益。这将使利润每年增加不少于 9700 万美元。
- 将普通股面值降至 14 美分,以及
- 以期权认股权证支付工资和薪水。
- 本·格雷厄姆未发表的讽刺作品,写于 1936 年,由作者于 1954 年赠予沃伦·巴菲特。
APPENDIX A U.S. STEEL ANNOUNCES SWEEPING MODERNIZATION SCHEME* completely modernizing the world's largest industrial enterprise. Contrary to expectations, no changes will Myron C. Taylor, Chairman of U.S. Steel Corporation, today announced the long awaited plan for entirely revamped. By adopting and further improving a number of modern accounting and financial be made in the company's manufacturing or selling policies. Instead, the bookkeeping system is to be conditions of 1935, it is estimated that the new bookkeeping methods would have yielded a reported devices the corporation's earning power will be amazingly transformed. Even under the subnormal comprehensive survey made by Messrs. Price, Bacon, Guthrie & Colpitts; it includes the following six profit of close to $50 per share on the common stock. The scheme of improvement is the result of a points:
- Writing down of Plant Account to Minus $1,000,000,000.
- Par value of common stock to be reduced to 14.
- Payment of all wages and salaries in option warrants.
- Inventories to be carried at $1.
- Preferred Stock to be replaced by non-interest bearing bonds redeemable at 50% discount.
- A $1,000,000,000 Contingency Reserve to be established.
The official statement of this extraordinary Modernization Plan follows in full: of the problems arising from changed conditions in the industry, it has approved a comprehensive plan The Board of Directors of U.S. Steel Corporation is pleased to announce that after intensive study for remodeling the Corporation's accounting methods. A survey by a Special Committee, aided and behind other American business enterprises in utilizing certain advanced bookkeeping methods, by means abetted by Messrs. Price, Bacon, Guthrie & Colpitts, revealed that our company has lagged somewhat of which the earning power may be phenomenally enhanced without requiring any cash outlay or any but to develop them to a still higher stage of perfection. The changes adopted by the Board may be changes in operating or sales conditions. It has been decided not only to adopt these newer methods, summarized under six heads, as follows: 1. Fixed Assets to be written down to Minus $1,000,000,000. by writing down their plant account to $1. The Special Committee points out that if their plants are Many representative companies have relieved their income accounts of all charges for depreciation worth only $1, the fixed assets of U.S. Steel Corporation are worth a good deal less than that sum. It is now a well-recognized tact that many plants are in reality a liability rather than an asset, entailing not decided to extend the write-down policy initiated in the 1935 report, and to mark down the Fixed Assets only depreciation cars but manne, and other expenditures. Accordingly, the Board has from $1,338,522,858.96 to a round Minus $1,000,000,000. correspondingly reduced. Hence, instead of the present depreciation charge of some $47,000,000 yearly The advantages of this move should be evident. As the plant wears out, the liability becomes there will be an annual appreciation credit of 5%, or $50,000,000. This will increase earnings by no less than $97,000,000 per annum.
- Reduction of Par Value of Common Stock to 14, and
- Payment of Salaries and Wages in Option Warrants.
- An unpublished satire by Ben Graham, written in 1936 and given by the author to Warren Buffett
in 1954. 22
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董事会已采纳下述更先进的方案:以每股 50 美元的价格购买普通股,每 50 美元薪金和/或工资配给一份认购权。公司全体人员将全部以认购权的形式,领取其当前数额的薪酬。普通股面值将降至 14 美元。这项新计划几乎不可置信的巨大优势,从基于 1935 年经营数据的以下各点中即可一目了然:
A. 公司将彻底消除工资支出,每年节省 2.5 亿美元。
B. 与此同时,全体雇员的有效薪酬将增加数倍。由于在新方法下,我们的普通股将显示出很高的每股收益,因此股票在市场上的价格几乎肯定会远高于每股 50 美元的期权行权水平,这使得这些期权权证容易变现的价值,远超其替代的现现金工资。
C. 公司还将通过这些权证的行权,实现一笔额外的可观年利润。由于普通股面值将定为 14 美元,每股认购将产生 49.99 美元的收益。但出于会计审慎原则,这笔利润将不列入损益表,而是单独计入资本公积贷方。
D. 公司的现金状况将得到极大增强。原有的每年 2.5 亿美元工资现金支出(按 1935 年口径),将被通过 500 万股普通股认购权证行权带来的每年 2.5 亿美元现金流入所取代。公司强劲的盈利能力和充裕的现金将允许派发优厚的股息,而派息又将促使这些期权权证在发行后立即行权,行权又将进一步改善现金状况,现金状况改善又将允许更高的股息率——如此无限循环下去。
4. 存货按 1 美元列账。大萧条期间,因必须把存货价值调整至市价,企业蒙受了严重损失。不少企业——尤其是金属和棉纺织领域的——已通过将其全部或部分存货按极低的单位价格列账,成功解决了这一问题。美国钢铁公司决定采取一项更为进步的政策,将其全部存货按 1 美元列账。这将在每年年末通过适当减记来实现,减记金额冲减下文将提到的或有准备金。
此项新方法带来的裨益极为巨大。它不仅杜绝了一切存货贬值的可能,还将大幅提升公司的年收益。年初按 1 美元计价的存货,将在年内以极佳利润售出。据估计,通过该方法,我们的年收益将至少增加 1.5 亿美元,而巧合的是,这个数字约等于每年需冲减或有准备金的减记金额。
特别委员会的一份少数派报告建议,为了一致性并取得与前述好处类似的额外好处,也应将应收账款及现金减记至 1 美元。该提议目前未被采纳,因为我们的审计师仍要求,凡收回的应收账款和现金均须确认为收益。不过,预计这条颇有些马车时代遗风的审计规则,很快就会顺应现代趋势而变更。一旦变更,该少数派报告将得到进一步且更有利的审议。
5. 以可按面值 50% 折扣赎回的无息债券替换优先股。在近期大萧条中,许多公司得以用远低于面值的价格回购自身债券,并将由此产生的利润计入收益,从而抵消了经营亏损。遗憾的是,美国钢铁公司的信用一向极高,以致此前一直无缘这一生财之道。现代化方案将纠正这一状况。
Board of Directors have adopted the following advanced form of this idea: to buy common stock at $50 per share, at the rate of one purchase right for each $50 of salary and/or The entire personnel of the Corporation are to receive their compensation in the form of rights wages in their present amounts. The par value of the common stock is to be reduced to 14. The almost incredible advantages of this new plan are evident from the following: based on 1935 operations. A. The payroll of the Corporation will be entirely eliminated, a saving of $250,000,000 per annum, B. At the same time, the effective compensation of all our employees will be increased severalfold. Because of the large earnings per share to be shown on our common stock under the new methods, it share, making the readily realizable value of these option warrants greatly in excess of the present cash is certain that the shares will command a price in the market far above the option level of $50 per wages that they will replace. C. The Corporation will realize an additional large annual profit through the exercise of these warrants. Since the par value of the common stock will be fixed at 14, there will be a gain of $49.99 on each share subscribed for. In the interest of conservative accounting, however, this profit will not be included in the income account, but will be shown separately as a credit to Capital Surplus. D. The Corporation's cash position will be enormously strengthened. In place of the present annual through exercise of the subscription warrants for 5,000,000 shares of common stock. The Company's large cash outgo of $250,000,000 for wages (1935 basis), there will be annual cash inflow of $250,000,000 earnings and strong cash position will permit the payment of a liberal dividend which, in turn, will result in the exercise of these option warrants immediately after issuance which, in turn, will further improve the cash position which, in turn, will permit a higher dividend rate — and so on, indefinitely. 4. Inventories to be carried at $1. value to market. Various enterprises — notably in the metal and cotton-textile fields - have successfully Serious losses have been taken during the depression due to the necessity of adjusting inventory U.S. Steel Corporation has decided to adopt a still more progressive policy, and to carry its entire inventory dealt with this problem by carrying all or part of their inventories at extremely low unit prices. The at $1. This will be effected by an appropriate write-down at the end of each year, the amount of said write-down to be charged to the Contingency Reserve hereinafter referred to. The benefits to be derived from this new method are very great. Not only will it obviate all possibility of inventory depreciation, but it will substantially enhance the annual earnings of the year at an excellent profit. It is estimated that our income will be increased by means of this method Corporation. The inventory on hand at the beginning of the year, valued at $1, will be sold during the to the extent of at least $150,000,000 per annum which, by a coincidence, will about equal the amount of the write-down to be made each year against Contingency Reserve. be written down to $1, in the interest of consistency and to gain additional advantages similar to those A minority report of the Special Committee recommends that Accounts Receivable and Cash also just discussed. This proposal has been rejected for the time being because our auditors still require that income. It is expected, however, that this auditing rule - which is rather reminiscent of the horse-and- any recoveries of receivables and cash buggy days — will soon be changed in line with modern tendencies. Should this occur, the minority report will be given further and favorable consideration. 5. Replacement of Preferred Stock by Non-Interest Bearing Bonds Redeemable at 50% Discount. including in income profits arising from repurchases of their own bonds at a substantial discount from the recent depression many companies have been able to offset their operating losses by par. Unfortunately the credit of U.S. Steel Corporation has always stood so high that this lucrative source of revenue has not hitherto been available to it. The Modernization Scheme will remedy this condition. 23
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附有偿债基金债券,通过抽签方式按面值的 50% 分 10 年等额赎回。
计划将每股优先股转换为 300 美元面值的无息债券,公司仅需花费 5400 万美元,从而每年产生同等金额的利润。
这需要发行 10.8 亿美元的新债券,其中每年将赎回 1.08 亿美元。
与上述第 3 项所述的工资和/或薪金计划一样,这项安排将使公司及其优先股股东双方受益。后者可以确保在平均五年内按面值的 150% 获得其现有股份的支付。由于目前短期证券几乎不产生任何回报,无息特性并无实际重要意义。公司将其目前每年 2500 万美元的优先股股息支出,转变为每年 5400 万美元的债券赎回利润——每年共计获益 7900 万美元。
6. 设立 10 亿美元的或有准备金。
董事们确信,上述改进将确保公司在未来各种条件下都能获得令人满意的盈利能力。然而,根据现代会计方法,完全无需因任何形式的不利商业发展而承担损失风险,因为所有这些都可以通过或有准备金提前安排。
特别委员会建议公司设立这样一笔数额相当可观的 10 亿美元或有准备金。如前所述,存货每年减记至 1 美元的费用将由该准备金吸收。为防止或有准备金最终耗尽,还决定每年通过从资本盈余中划拨适当金额来补充该准备金。由于后者预计每年通过行使股票认购权证(见上文第 3 项)增加不少于 2.5 亿美元,因此可以轻易弥补或有准备金的任何流失。
在制定这一安排时,董事会不得不遗憾地承认,他们无法改进重要公司在将大额资金在资本、资本盈余、或有准备金及其他资产负债表账户之间转移时已采用的技巧。事实上,必须承认我们的分录会有些过于简单,缺乏该领域最先进程序所具有的那种极致的复杂性。然而,董事会坚持在其现代化计划中追求清晰和简洁,即使牺牲公司盈利能力的可能优势也在所不惜。
为了展示新提案对公司盈利能力的综合影响,我们在此提交基于两种基础的 1935 年简明损益表,即:
A. 按报告口径
B. 按备考口径
体现上述变更
各项收入(含公司间收入)总额
765,000,000 美元
765,000,000 美元
工资和薪金
其他运营费用及税费
折旧
利息
优先股股息
赎回债券折价
(按实际发生)
普通股余额
(按比例计算)
451,000,000 美元
461,000,000 美元
251,000,000 美元
311,000,000 美元
47,000,000 美元
(50,000,000)美元
5,000,000 美元
5,000,000 美元
25,000,000 美元
(54,000,000)美元
(24,000,000)美元
553,000,000 美元
流通在外平均股数
8,703,252 股
11,203,252 股
每股收益
(2.76)美元
49.80 美元
根据一项稍显过时的惯例,在此附上一份反映 1935 年 12 月 31 日美国钢铁公司拟议资产负债变更后的简明备考资产负债表。
bearing sinking-fund notes, redeemable by lot at 50% of face value in 10 equal annual installments. This It is proposed that each share of preferred stock be exchanged for $300 face value of non-interest at a cost to the Corporation of only $54,000,000, thus creating an annual profit of the same amount. will require the issuance of $1,080,000,000 of new notes, of which $108,000,000 will be retired each year Corporation and its preferred stockholders. The latter are assured payment for their present shares at Like the wage-and/or-salary plan described under 3. above, this arrangement will benefit both the 150 % of par value over an average period of five years. Since short-term securities yield practically no its present annual charge of $25,000,000 for preferred dividends into an annual bond-retirement profit return at present, the non-interest-bearing feature is of no real importance. The Corporation will convert of $54,000,000 - an aggregate yearly gain of $79,000,000. 6. Establishment of a Contingency Reserve of $1,000,000,000. The Directors are confident that the improvements hereinbefore described will assure the Corporation of a satisfactory earning power under all conditions in the future. Under modern accounting methods, any sort, since all these may be provided for in advance by means of a Contingency Reserve. however, it is unnecessary to incur the slightest risk of loss through adverse business developments of in the fairly substantial amount of $1,000,000,000. As previously set forth, the annual write-down of The Special Committee has recommended that the Corporation create such a Contingency Reserve inventory to $1 will be absorbed by this reserve. To prevent eventual exhaustion of the Contingency from Capital Surplus. Since the latter is expected to increase each year by not less than $250,000,000 Reserve, it has been further decided that it be replenished each year by transfer of an appropriate sum through the exercise of the Stock Option Warrants (see 3. above), it will readily make good any drains on the Contingency Reserve. unable to improve upon the devices already employed by important corporations in transferring large In setting up this arrangement, the Board of Directors must confess regretfully that they have been sums between Capital, Capital Surplus, Contingency Reserves and other Balance Sheet Accounts. In fact, mystification that characterizes the most advanced procedure in this field. The Board of Directors, it must be admitted that our entries will be somewhat too simple, and will lack that element of extreme however, have insisted upon clarity and simplicity in framing their Modernization Plan, even at the sacrifice of possible advantage to the Corporation's earning power. we submit herewith a condensed Income Account for 1935 on two bases, viz: In order to show the combined effect of the new proposals upon the Corporation's earning power, B. Pro-Forma Changes Proposed Giving Bitect to A. As Reported Herewith Salaries and Wages. Gross Receipts from all Sources (Including Inter-Company)...... $765,000,000 $765,000,000 Other Operating Expenses and Taxes 251,000,000 Interest..... Depreciation. 461,000,000 311,000,000 47,000,000 (50,000,000) Preferred Dividends Discount on Bonds Retired 5,000,000 5,000,000 - (54,000,000) Average Shares Outstanding Balance for Common (24,000,000) 25,000,000 553,000,000 Earned Per Share.. 8,703,252 ($2.76) 11,203,252 $49.80 Balance Sheet of the U.S. Steel Corporation as of December 31, 1935, after giving effect to proposed In accordance with a somewhat antiquated custom there is appended herewith a condensed pro-forma changes in asset and liability accounts. 24
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资产
现金资产
固定资产净额
(10 亿美元)
1.42 亿美元
存货
应收账款
5600 万美元
1
杂项资产
2700 万美元
合计
(7.74999999 亿美元)
负债
普通股面值 14(面值 87,032.52 美元)设定价值*
(35 亿美元)
子公司债券与股票
1.13 亿美元
新偿债基金票据
10.8 亿美元
流动负债
6900 万美元
或有准备金
10 亿美元
初始盈余
其他准备
3.89000001 亿美元
7400 万美元
合计
(7.74999999 亿美元)
*设定价值不同于面值,系根据弗吉尼亚州法律确定,公司将在该州重新注册。
或许无需向股东们指出,现代会计方法所产生的资产负债表,在外观上与较早期阶段的资产负债表略有不同。鉴于公司资产负债表经过这些变动后将产生极为庞大的盈利能力,预计大家不会对资产与负债的细节投以过分关注。最后,董事会希望指出,上述组合举措——实际上几乎不涉及任何成本,我们的工资支出将被取消,账面存货价值仅为 1 美元——将使美国钢铁公司在行业中拥有巨大的竞争优势。我们将能以极低的价格销售产品,同时仍赚取可观的利润。董事会经过审慎考虑认为,在本现代化方案下,我们将能以如此大的幅度低于所有竞争对手,以至于反垄断法将成为我们实现行业 100% 主导地位的唯一障碍。
在作出此声明时,董事会并非没有意识到,部分竞争对手可能会尝试采用类似的会计改进来抵消我们的新优势。然而,我们确信,美国钢铁公司将凭借其作为钢铁用户服务领域开创者和先驱者所获得的独特声望,留住新老客户的忠诚。此外,我们相信,一旦出现必要,我们能够通过引入更为先进的簿记方法来保持应有的优势,而这些方法目前正在我们的实验会计实验室中研发!
ASSETS Cash Assets Fixed Assets, net ($1,000,000,000) 142,000,000 Inventory.. Receivables. 56,000,000 1 Miscellaneous Assets 27,000,000 Total ($774,999,999) LIABILITIES Common Stock Par 14 (Par Value $87,032.52) Stated Value* ($3,500,000,000) Subsidiaries' Bonds and Stocks... 113,000,000 New Sinking Fund Notes 1,080,000.000 Current Liabilities .... 69,000,000 Contingency Reserve. 1,000,000,000 Initial Surplus Other Reserves .... 389,000,001 74,000,000 Total.. ($774,999,999) *Given a Stated Value differing from Par Value, in accordance with the laws of the State of Virginia, where the company will be re-incorporated. rise to balance sheets differing somewhat in appearance from those of a less advanced period. In view It is perhaps unnecessary to point out to our stockholders that modern accounting methods give it is not expected that undue attention will be paid to the details of assets and liabilities. of the very large earning power that will result from these changes in the Corporation's Balance Sheet, arried at a minus figure, our wage bill will be eliminated, and inventory will stand on our books a n conclusion, the Board desires to point out that the combined procedure, v virtually nothing, will give U. S. Steel Corporation an enormous competitive advantage in the industry. profit. It is the considered view of the Board of Directors that under the Modernization Scheme we shall We shall be able to sell our products at exceedingly low prices and still show a handsome margin of be able to undersell all competitors to such a point that the anti-trust laws will constitute the only barrier to 100% domination of the industry. may seek to offset our new advantages by adopting similar accounting improvements. We are confident, In making this statement, the Board is not unmindful of the possibility that some of our competitors however, that U. S. Steel will be able to retain the loyalty of its customers, old and new, through the user of steel. Should necessity arise, moreover, we believe we shall be able to maintain our deserved unique prestige that will accrue to it as the originator and pioneer in these new fields of service to the uperiority by introducing still more advanced bookkeeping methods, which are even now unde levelopment in our Experimental Accounting Laborator! 25
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附录 B
关于出售企业的一些思考*
尊敬的________:
以下是我根据几天前我们那次谈话整理的一些想法。
大多数企业主把一生中最好的年华用来打造自己的企业。通过日复一日的反复实践,他们在销售、采购、人员选拔等环节不断打磨技能。这是一个持续学习的过程,某一年犯下的错误,往往会转化为后续年份的能力和成功。
相比之下,所有者兼经营者出售自己的企业通常只有一次——而且常常是在情绪高度紧绷、各种压力从四面八方涌来的氛围中做出。很多时候,压力主要来自经纪人,他们的报酬取决于交易能否达成,而不管交易结果对买卖双方意味着什么。这一决定对所有者个人而言,无论经济上还是情感上都极为重要,这一事实本身反而更容易让整个过程出错,而不是更少。而在一生仅有一次的企业出售中犯下的错误,是无法挽回的。
价格很重要,但往往不是出售中最关键的方面。您和您的家族拥有一家相当出色的企业——在您所在的领域独一无二——任何买家都会认识到这一点。这也是一家随着时间推移会越来越值钱的企业。因此,如果您现在决定不出售,您日后很可能会获得更多收益。明白了这一点,您就可以从强势地位出发,从容地花时间去选择您想要的买家。
如果您决定出售,我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦具备一些大多数其他买家不具备的优势。实际上,这些买家几乎都逃不出以下两类:
(1)一家位于别处,但经营着与您相同或相近业务的公司。这类买家——不论做出什么承诺——通常手下的管理者都觉得自己知道怎么经营您的企业,早晚会想要亲力亲为地“搭把手”。如果收购方规模大得多,它往往还会配备一批多年来靠承诺“将来有机会经营收购来的企业”而招揽到的管理者团队。他们有自己的行事方式,即使您的业务记录无疑远胜于他们,人性使然,他们总会在某个时点认为自己的经营方法更为优越。您和您的家人很可能有朋友把企业卖给了大公司,我猜想他们的经历会印证母公司接管子公司运营的倾向,尤其是在母公司了解该行业,或者自以为了解的时候。
(2)金融操盘手,始终倚仗大量借入资金来运作,计划一等到市场时机有利,就将企业转手卖给公众或另一家公司。通常,这类买家最主要的“贡献”是变更会计方法,以便在他脱身之前,能以最亮眼的方式呈现盈利。我随信附上一篇近期文章,描述了这类交易。由于股市上涨以及可供此类交易使用的资金供应充裕,这类交易正变得越来越频繁。
如果现有所有者的唯一动机是套现离场,从此与企业再无瓜葛——而很多卖家恰恰属于这一类——那么我上面描述的两种买家,无论哪一种都令人满意。但是,如果卖家的企业代表了他毕生的创造性劳动,并构成其人格和自我认知不可分割的一部分,那么这两类买家都存在严重缺陷。
伯克希尔是另一种买家——一个颇为与众不同的买家。我们买来是为了长期持有,但我们不会,也不打算在母公司的组织架构里配备经营人员。我们旗下所有企业,都由它们原有的管理层自主经营,其自主程度非同寻常。
- 这是我多年前写给一位曾表示可能想出售家族企业的人的一封信,经编辑后呈现于此。我把它收录在这里,是因为我也想向其他潜在卖家传达这一信息。——沃伦·E·巴菲特
26
APPENDIX B Some Thoughts on Selling Your Business* Dear Here are a few thoughts pursuant to our conversation of the other day. built upon endless repetition, they sharpen their skills in merchandising, purchasing, personnel selection, Most business owners spend the better part of their lifetimes building their businesses. By experience etc. It's a learning process, and mistakes made in one year often contribute to competence and success in succeeding years. atmosphere with a multitude of pressures coming from different directions. Often, much of the pressure In contrast, owner-managers sell their business only once - frequently in an emotionally-charged consequences for both buyer and seller. The fact that the decision is so important, both financially and comes from brokers whose compensation is contingent upon consummation of a sale, regardless of its personally, to the owner can make the process more, rather than less, prone to error. And, mistakes made o the once-ina teme sale of a busines are not reversible. Price is very important, but often is not the most critical aspect of the sale. You and your family have an extraordinary business
- one of a kind in your field - and any buyer is going to recognize that. It's
also a business that is going to get more valuable as the years go by. So if you decide not to sell now, you are very likely to realize more money later on. With that knowledge you can deal from strength and take the time required to select the buyer you want. If you should decide to sell, I think Berkshire Hathaway offers some advantages that most other buyers do not. Practically all of these buyers will fall into one of two categories: (1) A company located elsewhere but operating in your business or in a business somewhat akin to yours. Such a buyer — no matter what promises are made - will usually have managers who feel they know how to run your business operations and, sooner or later, will want to apply some hands-on "help." part by promises that they will get to run future acquisitions. They will have their own way of doing things If the acquiring company is much larger, it often will have squads of managers, recruited over the years in point cause them to believe that their methods of operating are superior. You and your family probably and, even though your business record undoubtedly will be far better than theirs, human nature will at some have friends who have sold their businesses to larger companies, and I suspect that their experiences will confirm the tendency of parent companies to take over the running of their subsidiaries, particularly when the parent knows the industry, or thinks it does. to resell either to the public or to another corporation as soon as the time is favorable. Frequently, this (2) A financial maneuverer, invariably operating with large amounts of borrowed money, who plans buyer's major contribution will be to change accounting methods so that earnings can be presented in the most favorable light just prior to his bailing out. I'm enclosing a recent article that describes this sort of transaction, which is becoming much more frequent because of a rising stock market and the great supply of funds available for such transactions. and plenty of sellers fall in this category - either type of buyer that I've just described is satisfactory. But If the sole motive of the present owners is to cash their chips and put the business behind them - if the sellers' business represents the creative work of a lifetime and forms an integral part of their personality and sense of being, buyers of either type have serious flaws. don't expect to have, operating people in our parent organization. All of the businesses we own are run Berkshire is another kind of buyer — a rather unusual one. We buy to keep, but we don't have, and
- This is an edited version of a letter I sent some years ago to a man who had indicated that he might want to sell his
family business. I present it here because it is a message I would like to convey to other prospective sellers. - W.E.B. 26
[第 29 页]
[PAGE 29]
……其自主程度非同寻常。大多数情况下,我们持股多年的重要企业的管理者甚至都没来过奥马哈,彼此之间也素未谋面。我们收购一家企业时,卖家继续像出售前一样经营下去;我们去适应他们的方法,而不是反过来。我们对从老板-经理人手里买来的企业从不插手,以后也不会。我们没有向任何人——无论是家族成员,还是新招来的 MBA 等——承诺过有机会去管理我们收购来的企业。我随信附上一份我们从对方手中收购过企业的所有人名单,请您去向他们了解,我们到底是说到做到,还是光说不练。您尤其应该去找那些后来企业经营不顺的卖家问问,了解我们在困难局面下的表现。任何买家都会对您说,他个人很需要您——如果他还有点头脑,他确实应该需要您。但很多买家,出于上面提到的种种原因,其后续行为与当初的承诺对不上号。我们会完全说到做到,既因为我们承诺了,也因为我们这样做才能取得最好的商业结果。我们需要 80% 的股权以满足税务上的合并报表要求,这对我们很重要。我之所以提出这一需要,正是因为希望您家族中实际经营的成员能保留 20% 的股份。对我们同样重要的是,经营这家企业的家族成员继续以股东身份留任。说得直白一点,如果核心管理层不愿留下来做我们的合伙人,我们就不想买。合同保证不了您的持续投入;我们只信您的一句话。我参与的范围仅限于资本配置,以及一把手的选拔和薪酬。其他人事决策、经营策略等是他的地盘。有些伯克希尔的管理者会和我商讨某些决策,有些则不会。这取决于他们的性格,在一定程度上也取决于他们与我个人的关系。如果您决定与伯克希尔做交易,我们将支付现金。您的企业不会用作伯克希尔任何贷款的抵押。全程不会有经纪人介入。此外,绝无可能出现这样的情况:交易宣布后,买方临阵退缩或开始提出调整方案(当然,会附上道歉,并解释说是银行、律师、董事会之类的责任)。最后,您始终清楚自己在与谁打交道。您不会遇到一位高管与您谈完交易,几年后却换成另一个人来负责,或者总裁遗憾地告诉您,他的董事会要求做出这样那样的改变(或者要求卖掉您的企业,来为母公司某项新业务提供资金)。公平起见,我得告诉您:出售之后,您不会比现在更富有。您拥有的这家企业,已经让您十分富有且投资稳健。出售只改变您财富的形式,不会改变其数额。如果您卖出,您是把一项您所了解的、100% 持有的宝贵资产,换成另一项宝贵资产——现金——而这笔现金大概率会被分散成一小份一小份地投入到您并不太了解的其他企业(也就是股票)里。出售往往有充分的理由,但如果这笔交易是公平的,那理由绝不是卖家可以变得更富有。祝您在未来 20 年里,经营企业能像过去 20 年一样愉快。
此致,
/s/ 沃伦·E·巴菲特
27
autonomously to an extraordinary degree. In most cases, the managers of important businesses we have owned for many years have not been to Omaha or even met each other. When we buy a business, the sellers go on running it just as they did before the sale; we adapt to their methods rather than vice versa. We have no run businesses we have bought from owner-managers. And we won't have. one - family, recently recruited MBAs, etc. - to whom we have promised a chance to bought a business, and I invite you to check with them as to our performance versus our promises. You You know of some of our past purchases. I'm enclosing a list of everyone from whom we have ever ascertain how we behaved under difficult conditions. should be particularly interested in checking with the few whose businesses did not do well in order to does need you. But a great many buyers, for the reasons mentioned above, don't match their subsequent Any buyer will tell you that he needs you personally - and if he has any brains, he most certainly because we need to in order to achieve the best business results. actions to their earlier words. We will behave exactly as promised, both because we have so promised, and in the business. We need 80% to consolidate earnings for tax purposes, which is a step important to us. This need explains why we would want the operating members of your family to retain a 20% interest It is equally important to us that the family members who run the business remain as owners. Very simply, partners. Contracts cannot guarantee your continued interest; we would simply rely on your word. we would not want to buy unless we felt key members of present management would stay on as our Other personnel decisions, operating strategies, etc. are his bailiwick. Some Berkshire managers talk over The areas I get involved in are capital allocation and selection and compensation of the top man. some of their decisions with me; some don't. It depends upon their personalities and, to an extent, upon their own personal relationship with me. If you should not be used as collateral for any loan by Berkshire. There would be no brokers involved. decide to do business with Berkshire, we would pay in cash. Your business would then back off or start suggesting adjustments (with apologies, of course, and with an explanation that banks, Furthermore, there would be no chance that a deal would be announced and that the buyer would lawyers, boards of directors, etc. were to be blamed). And finally, you would know exactly with whom you few years later, or have the president regretfully tell you that his board of directors required this change are dealing. You would not have one executive negotiate the deal only to have someone else in charge a or that (or possibly required sale of your business to finance some new interest of the parent's). business already makes you wealthy and soundly invested. A sale would change the form of your wealth, It's only fair to tell you that you would be no richer after the sale than now. The ownership of your but it wouldn't change its amount. If you sell, you will have exchanged a 100%-owned valuable asset that you in busten the you trend of other businesses that you understand less well. There is often a sound reason to sell but, if the you understand for another valuable asset — cash — that will probably be invested in small pieces (stocks) transaction is a fair one, the reason is not so that the seller can become wealthier. business over the next 20 years as you have had during the past 20. Sincerely, /s/ Warren E. Buffett 27
[第 30 页]
[PAGE 30]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及其子公司
合并资产负债表
(除每股数据外,金额单位:千美元)
12 月 31 日
资产
1990
1989
现金及现金等价物
$ 247,024
$ 205,127
投资:
固定期限债务
$ 3,061,075
$ 2,795,588
贷款及应收款项
705,649
544,319
权益性有价证券
5,685,983
5,261,598
9,452,707
8,601,505
应收账款
203,795
554,763
不动产、厂房及设备
209,870
195,927
其他资产
557,027
239,159
商誉
207,432
217,113
$10,670,423
$9,459,594
负债及股东权益
损失及损失调整费用
$ 2,050,305
$ 1,436,311
未到期保费
286,093
126,381
应付账款、应计费用及其他负债
1,111,783
475,873
储蓄账户
143,631
——
所得税
443,602
291,592
定期债务及其他借款
1,239,358
1,129,038
少数股东权益
93,176
82,778
负债合计
5,289,793
4,451,690
股东权益:
普通股,面值 5 美元。授权 1,500,000 股;
已发行 1,375,202 股,含库藏股
6,876
6,876
股本溢价
157,377
157,377
留存收益
2,855,061
2,342,198
权益性有价证券未实现增值净额
2,310,433
2,460,968
5,329,747
4,967,419
减:库藏普通股,按成本计(228,761 股)
42,293
42,293
股东权益合计
5,287,454
4,925,126
$10,670,423
$9,459,594
参见附注,本财务报表系合并财务报表不可分割的组成部分
28
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS and Subsidiaries (dollars in thousands except per share amounts) December 31, Cash and cash equivalents.. ASSETS 1990 1989 Investments: $ 247,024 $ 205,127 Obligations with fixed maturities. Loans and accounts receivable Marketable equity securities 3,061,075 5,685,983 2,795,588 705,649 5,261,598 Properties and equipment 203,795 554,763 Other assets 209,870 195,927 557,027 239,159 207,432 $10,670,423 $9,459,594 Losses and loss adjustment expenses LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY Unearned premiums. $ 2,050,305 $1,436,311 Accounts payable, accruals and other liabilities Savings accounts .... 286,093 126,381 143,631 1,111,783 475,873 443,602 291,592 Income taxes Term debt and other borrowings. 1,239,358 1,129,038 1,007,516 Minority shareholders' interests. 5,289,793 4,451,690 93,176 82,778 Shareholders' equity: Common stock of $5 par value. Authorized 1,500,000 shares; Capital in excess of par value issued 1,375,202 shares, including shares held in treasury 6,876 Retained earnings Unrealized appreciation of marketable equity securities, net 2,310,433 157,377 157,377 6,876 2,855,061 2,342,198 Less common stock in treasury, at cost (228,761 shares) ....... 5,329,747 2,460,968 Total shareholders' equity. 5,287,454 42,293 4,967,419 4,925,126 42,293 $10,670,423 $9,459,594 See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 28
[第 31 页]
[PAGE 31]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及子公司合并收益表(除每股数据外,金额单位:千美元)
截至 12 月 31 日止的年度
1990 年 1989 年 1988 年
收入:
已赚保费 1,580,074 1,526,459 1,407,642
销售和服务收入 591,540 394,279 584,235
利息和股息收入 450,295 331,452 314,251
已实现投资利得 33,989 223,810 131,671
杂项收入 3,574 7,892 27,094
总收入 2,659,472 2,483,892 2,464,893
成本和费用:
保险损失和损失调整费用 871,073 844,056 309,391
已售产品和服务成本 753,845 534,261 437,695
保险承保费用 83,926 109,288 157,621
销售、一般和管理费用 541,054 526,359 495,331
利息费用 112,692 77,574 70,280
总成本和费用 2,143,006 1,866,668 1,914,772
税前收益 516,466 617,224 550,121
所得税 112,047 404,419 159,287
少数股东权益 10,326 10,460 10,060
净利润 394,093 447,477 399,270
每股净利润 344 美元 390 美元 348 美元
见合并财务报表附注 29
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS and Subsidiaries (dollars in thousands except per share amounts) Year Ended December 31, 1990 1989 1988 Revenues: Insurance premiums earned Sales and service revenues $1,580,074 $1,526,459 $1,407,642 Interest and dividend income... 591,540 394,279 584,235 Realized investment gain .... 450,295 331,452 314,251 Sundry income. 33,989 223,810 131,671 3,574 7,892 27,094 2,659,472 2,483,892 2,464,893 Cost and expenses: Insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses Cost of products and services sold 871,073 844,056 309,391 753,845 534,261 437,695 Insurance underwriting expenses. 83,926 109,288 157,621 Selling, general and administrative expenses... 541,054 526,359 495,331 Interest expense 112,692 77,574 70,280 2,143,006 1,866,668 1,914,772 Earnings before income taxes 516,466 617,224 550,121 Income taxes 112,047 404,419 159,287 457,937 140,791 409,330 Minority interest.. 10,326 10,460 10,060 Net earnings. $ 394,093 $ 447,477 $ 399,270 Net earnings per share.. $344 $390 $348 See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 29
[第 32 页]
[PAGE 32]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及其子公司合并现金流量表(单位:千美元)
截至 12 月 31 日止的年度
经营活动产生的现金流: 1990 1989 1988
净利润 394,093 447,477 399,270
将净利润与经营活动现金流调节的调整项:
已实现投资利得 (33,989) (223,810) (131,671)
折旧与摊销 34,083 32,107 29,808
投资购买价格折价摊销(减去溢价摊销) (58,648) (3,663)
零息债券发行折价摊销 5,683
少数股东权益 (22,618) 272
损失及损失调整费用负债增加 613,994 146,767
递延费用增加 29,122 10,460 10,060
未赚保费减少 (350,787)
应收账款(增加)减少 (133,809) (98,187) 8,923
应付账款、应计费用及其他负债增加 32,271 9,666 118,088
其他 8,699 4,006 (45,224)
经营活动产生的净现金流 522,568 330,206 363,881
投资活动产生的现金流:
购买可流通权益证券 (287,700) (1,468,157) (739,932)
购买固定期限投资 (729,352) (1,708,971) (109,245)
固定期限投资赎回及到期收入 519,470 345,351
出售固定期限投资所得 61,035 (132,313) 261,923
出售可流通权益证券所得 821,656 878,228 46,104
融资业务发放贷款 (57,174) (103,602) (111,745)
贷款本金回收 110,415 109,830 133,546
其他 11,762 21,457 28,985
投资活动产生的净现金流 21,144 (682,773) (519,246)
筹资活动产生的现金流:
借款所得 785,818 1,172,356 250,000
偿还借款 (576,634) (650,019) (59,877)
其他 (7,082) 6,371 (1,639)
筹资活动产生的净现金流 202,102 528,708 188,484
现金及现金等价物年初余额 205,127 265,081 231,962
现金及现金等价物增加(减少) 41,897 (59,954) 33,119
现金及现金等价物年末余额 247,024 205,127 265,081
其他现金流量信息:
已缴所得税 113,860 181,468 137,148
已付利息 79,857 70,191 61,798
见合并财务报表附注 30
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS and Subsidiaries (dollars in thousands) 1990 Year Ended December 31, Cash flows from operating activities: 1989 1988 Net income..... Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash flows .. ... $ 394,093 $ 447,477 $ 399,270 from operating activities: Realized investment gain.. Depreciation and amortization (33,989) 34,083 (223,810) 32,107 (131,671) 29,808 Investment purchase price discount Amortization of issue discount on zero coupon notes... accretion less premium amortization (58,648) 5,683 (3,663) Minority interests.. 22,618 272 Increase in liability for losses and loss 10,326 10,460 10,060 Increase in deferred charges adjustment expenses ..... 613,994 29,122 146,767 Decrease in unearned premiums.. re reinsurance assumed (350,787) (Increase) decrease in accounts receivable.. (133,809) (17,250) (98,187) 8,923 (99,526) Increase in accounts payable, accruals and other 8,699 Other. liabilities.. ..... 32,271 9,666 118,088 4,006 (45,224) 45,426 Cash flows from investing activities: Net cash flows from operating activities.. 522,568 330,206 363,881 Purchases of marketable equity securities. Purchases of fixed maturity investments.. (287,700) Proceeds from redemptions and maturities of fixed Proceeds from sales of fixed maturity investments. ..•••. (729,352) (1,468,157) (739,932) (1,708,971) (109,245) 61,035 519,470 345,351 Proceeds from sales of marketable equity securities maturity investments.. (132,313) 261,923 21,457 28,985 821,656 878,228 46,104 Loans originated in finance businesses. Other ... Principal collection on loans 110,415 (133,546) 11,762 (57,174) 109,830 (103,602) 111,745 Net cash flows from investing activities..... 21,144 (682,773) Cash flows from financing activities: (918,868) (519,246) Proceeds from borrowings Other Repayments of borrowings ....... (576,634) 785,818 1,172,356 (7.082) (650,019) 250,000 6,371 (59,877) Net cash flows from financing activities... (1,639) .... 202,102 528,708 188,484 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of year... Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalent.... 41,897 205,127 (59,954) 265,081 231,962 33,119 Cash and cash equivalents at end of year.... Other cash flow information: $ 247.024 $ 205,127 $ 265,081 Income taxes paid Interest paid $ 113,860 79,857 $ 181,468 70,191 $ 137,148 61,798 See accompanying Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements 30
[第 33 页]
[PAGE 33]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
合并财务报表附注
及其子公司
1990 年 12 月 31 日
(1) 重要会计政策与实务
(a) 合并基础
随附的合并财务报表包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(“公司”或“伯克希尔”)及其所有子公司的账户合并。公司间账户与交易已抵销。
(c) 投资
有固定期限的债务投资按成本列账。伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团成员公司持有的有价权益证券按市价列账;公司及非保险子公司持有的有价权益证券按总成本与市价孰低法列账。
(d) 已售投资成本
已售投资成本通常按先进先出法确定。当特定识别法导致较低的适用所得税时,则使用特定识别成本。
(e) 收购业务产生的商誉与负商誉
收购成本与被收购业务净资产公允价值之间的差额,按直线法在四十年内摊销。未摊销净余额计入其他资产。
(f) 保险费获取成本
为财务报告目的,获取保险费的某些成本予以递延,其最终可回收性需经认定,并在保费赚取时计入收入。对于根据主要配额比例再保险合同收到的保费,其直接相关获取成本的最终可回收性计算,需考虑所持资金在合同约束下预期赚取的投资收益。否则,保费获取成本的最终可回收性不考虑投资收益。
(g) 承担的再保险产生的递延费用
对于提供保险风险赔偿(结构性结算除外)的追溯性财产/意外再保险合同,保险集团最终应付的理赔与理赔费用负债的预估金额超过已收对价的差额,在该等负债预期未清偿的期间内,于合同生效时确认为递延费用。该递延费用随后自 1990 年 12 月 31 日起,采用利息法在理赔与理赔费用负债预期存续期间摊销。1990 年 12 月 31 日,承担的再保险产生的递延费用金额为 350,787,000 美元,计入其他资产。
(h) 损失与损失调整费用
损失与损失调整费用负债代表保险集团成员在以下方面的此类义务总和:(a) 预期性财产/意外保险及再保险合同(结构性结算除外),(b) 提供保险风险赔偿的追溯性财产/意外再保险合同,以及 (c) 就已结案理赔提供定期付款的合同(“结构性结算”)。除按折现现值(扣除再保险可收回金额)列账的结构性结算负债外,损失与损失调整费用负债按预期最终支付金额的总和列账。预期合同的最终支付金额根据 (i) 单个案件估算,(ii) 基于过去经验的已发生未报告损失估算,以及 (iii) 分保公司报告的损失确定。
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS and Subsidiaries December 31, 1990 (1) Significant accounting policies and practices (a) Basis of consolidation The accompanying Consolidated Financial Statements include the accounts of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (the 'Company" or "Berkshire") consolidated with accounts of all its subsidiaries. Intercompany accounts an ransactions have been eliminated (c) Investments Investments in obligations with fixed maturities are carried at cost. Marketable equity securities held by members of the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group are carried at market value, marketable equity securities held by the Company and by non-insurance subsidiaries are carried at the lower of aggregate cost or market. (d) Cost of investments sold Cost of investments sold is usually identification results in lower applicable income taxes, identified cost is used. determined on a first-in, first-out basis. Occasionally, when specific (e) Goodwill and negative goodwill of acquired businesses The difference between purchase amortized on a straight line basis over forty years. The net unamortized balance is carried in other assets. cost and the fair value of the net assets of acquired businesses is (f) Insurance premium acquisition costs For financial ultimate recoverability, and charged to income as the premiums are earned. With respect to premiums received reporting purposes, certain costs of acquiring insurance premiums are deferred, subject to under major quota-share reinsurance contracts, the computation of ultimate recoverability of the directly to the contracts. Otherwise, ultimate recoverability of premium acquisition costs is determined without regard related acquisition cost takes into account investment income anticipated to be earned on funds held subject to investment income. (g) Deferred charges re reinsurance assumed The excess of estimated liabilities for claims and claim costs ultimately payable by the Insurance Group indemnification of insurance risk, other than structured settlements, is established as a deferred charge at over consideration received with respect to retroactive property/casualty reinsurance contracts that provide for the periods that the liabilities for the claims and claim costs are expected to be outstanding. At December 31, inception of such contracts. The deferred charges are subsequently amortized using the interest method over 1990, deferred charges re reinsurance assumed in the amount of $350,787,000 are included in other assets. (h) Losses and loss adjustment expense Liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses represents the aggregate of such obligations of members (b) retroactive property/casualty reinsurance contracts that provide for indemnification of insurance risk, of the Insurance Group with respect to: (a) prospective property/casualty insurance and reinsurance contracts, claims ("structured settlements"). Except for structured settlement liabilities which are stated at discounted other than structured settlements, and (c) contracts providing for periodic payments with respect to settled payment amounts less amounts recoverable on account of reinsurance. present values, the liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses is at the aggregate of estimated ultimate Ultimate payment amounts with respect to prospective contracts are determined from (i) individual case estimates, (ii) estimates of incurred but not reported losses, based on past experience, and (iti) reports of losses from ceding insurers. 31
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合并财务报表附注(续)
(1)重大会计政策与实务(续)
(h) 损失及损失理赔费用(续)
对于提供保险风险赔偿的追溯性再保险合同(结构性结算除外),其最终赔付金额在财务报告编制中按最佳估计确定,而非按合同规定的最高赔偿限额。1990 年 12 月 31 日,此项负债为 737,524,000 美元,其中 350,787,000 美元在财务报告中被确认为递延费用,对应合同规定的最高赔偿限额。另见上文 1(g)。在法定报告编制中,这些合同下的负债同样按最终应付的索赔及理赔费用的最佳估计确定,而非按最坏情形下的最高损失限额,由此得出 1990 年 12 月 31 日的负债为 425,595,000 美元。同样在法定报告编制下,这些合同在 1990 年产生了约 6,800 万美元的承保亏损。在财务报告编制下,这些合同在 1990 年的承保损益为零。在联邦所得税报告编制下,法定报告所确认的负债需进行折现处理,这些合同在 1990 年产生了约 130 万美元的应税收入。
结构性结算合同下的负债在合同签订时按保险精算确定的最终赔付金额的现值逐份确认,折现率采用市场利率。此后,负债的年度增值计入已发生损失。1990 年 12 月 31 日,财务报告编制下此类负债总额为 264,718,000 美元。在法定报告和税务报告编制下(负债采用保险监管机构规定的折现率确定,1986 年以后生效的合同为 5%,1987 年之前的合同为 7%),结构性结算负债总额为 353,613,000 美元。
(i) 保险费
预期型保险和再保险保单的保险费,在保单期限内按比例确认为收入。相关的未赚取保费按月或按日按比例计算,并在扣除分保给再保险人的未赚取保费后列示。
对于追溯性再保险合同(包括结构性结算)下因提供风险赔偿而收取的对价,在合同生效时作为已赚取保费进行会计处理。
(k) 所得税
某些收入和扣除项目在财务报表中确认的期间,与在公司合并联邦所得税申报表中确认的期间不同,这导致在财务报表中确认递延所得税和预付所得税。
合并资产负债表中的所得税负债,包括被视为适用于有价权益证券账面价值中所含未实现增值的递延税款。此类税款按以下税率计提:与 1986 年之后产生的未实现增值增长相关的部分,税率为 34%;与 1987 年之前产生的增值相关的部分,税率为 28%。
1987 年,财务会计准则委员会(FASB)发布了第 96 号公告“所得税会计”,目前要求自 1991 年 12 月 15 日之后开始的会计年度的财务报表中实施该公告。该公告要求采用以资产负债表为重心的“负债法”核算所得税,取代原先要求以损益表为重心的“递延法”。公司尚未执行该公告的规定。FASB 已宣布拟进一步推迟该公告的强制实施日期。如果该公告的现行规定于 1990 年 12 月 31 日在伯克希尔的合并资产负债表中生效,将导致股东权益减少,减少金额不超过 7,000 万美元。减少的具体金额取决于伯克希尔在两种可选实施方案中的选择。
(m) 养老金以外的退休后福利
1990 年 12 月,FASB 发布了第 106 号公告“雇主对养老金以外的退休后福利的会计处理”。此公告改变了有关此类福利的公认会计原则。公司认为,该公告的规定不会对伯克希尔的财务状况或经营业绩产生重大影响。
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (1) Significant accounting policies and practices (Continued) (h) Losses and loss adjustment expense (continued) Ultimate payment amounts with respect to retroactive reinsurance contracts that provide for indemnification of insurance risk, other than structured settlements, are established for financial reporting purposes at 31, 1990 of which $350,787,000 was established for financial reporting purposes as deferred charges re maximum limits of indemnification under the contracts. This liability amounted to $737,524,000 at December reinsurance. See also 1(g) above. For statutory reporting purposes, liabilities under these contracts are payable thereunder. These "best estimates" yielded as of December 31, 1990 a liability of $425,595,000. Also established, not at worst-case maximum loss limits, but at best estimates of claims and claim costs ultimately for statutory reporting purposes, a 1990 underwriting loss of approximately $68 million resulted from the contracts. For financial reporting purposes, underwriting gain or loss from the contracts for 1990 was zero. For Federal income tax reporting purposes, the liabilities as established for statutory reporting purposes are subjected to discounting, and 1990 taxable income of approximately $1.3 million, resulted from the contracts. Liabilities under structured settlement contracts are established on a contract-by-contract basis when the discounted at the market interest rate. Thereafter, annual accretions to the liabilities are charged to losses contracts are entered into, at the then present value of the actuarially determined ultimate payment amount incurred. The aggregate of these liabilities for financial reporting purposes at December 31, 1990 was $264,718,000. For statutory and tax reporting purposes, where the liabilities are determined using discount to contracts dated prior to 1987), the aggregate of structured settlement liabilities was $353,613,000. rates mandated by Insurance Regulatory authorities (5% for contracts incepting after 1986 and 7% with respect (i) Insurance premiums Insurance premiums for prospective insurance and reinsurance policies are recognized as revenues ratably over their terms. Related unearned premiums are computed on a monthly or daily pro rata basis and are stated after deduction of unearned premiums ceded to reinsurers. Consideration received for indemnification of risk under retroactive reinsurance contracts, including structured settlements, are accounted for as premiums earned at the inception of the contracts. (k) Income taxes Certain items of income and deductions are recognized in the financial statements in time periods that differ from those in which they are recognized in the Company's consolidated Federal income tax returns, giving rise to recognition in the financial statements to deferred and prepaid income taxes. The liability for income taxes in the Consolidated Balance Sheets includes deferred taxes deemed applicable to unrealized appreciation included in carrying value of marketable equity securities. Such taxes were accrued rate of 28% relative to appreciation that arose in years prior to 1987. at a rate of 34% relative to increases in unrealized appreciation that arose subsequent to 1986 and at the In 1987, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB") issued Statement No. 96 "Accounting for Income Taxes," and implementation of the statement is now required in financial statements for years beginning after December 15, 1991. The statement requires the "liability method" of accounting for income taxes with a balance sheet focus superseding requirements for the "deferred method" with an earnings statement focus. The Company has not yet implemented the statement's provisions. The FASB has announced were to be given effect in Berkshire's consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 1990, a reduction to its intention to further defer the date required for implementation. If the current provisions of the Statement shareholders' equity of no more than $70 million would result. The precise amount of the reduction is dependent upon Berkshire's selection between alternative means of implementation. (m) Postretirement benefits other than pensions In December, 1990, the FASB issued Statement No. 106 "Employers' Accounting for Postretirement Benefits Other Than Pensions." This statement alters generally accepted accounting principles with respect to position or results of operations. Company believes that the provisions of this statement will not have a measurable effect on Berkshire's financial 32
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(2)业务分部数据
见第 39 页。
(3)固定期限证券投资
截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日,固定期限证券投资的摊销成本与估计市值如下:
| 债券: | 摊销成本 | 未实现收益 | 未实现损失 | 估计市值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美国国债及美国政府机构担保证券 | 6,665,000 美元 | 84,000 美元 | — | 6,749,000 美元 |
| 州及地方政府债券 | 576,588,000 美元 | 87,622,000 美元 | (551,000 美元) | 663,659,000 美元 |
| 公司债券 | 514,547,000 美元 | 13,787,000 美元 | (11,888,000 美元) | 516,446,000 美元 |
| 可赎回优先股 | 1,963,275,000 美元 | 120,141,000 美元 | (143,307,000 美元) | 1,940,109,000 美元 |
| 合计 | 3,061,075,000 美元 | 221,634,000 美元 | (155,746,000 美元) | 3,126,963,000 美元 |
以下按合同到期日列出 1990 年 12 月 31 日上述债务证券的摊销成本与估计市值。预期到期日会与合同到期日不同,因为某些债务的发行方保留提前赎回或提前还本的权利。
| 摊销成本 | 估计市值 | |
|---|---|---|
| 一年以内到期 | 46,573,000 美元 | 56,922,000 美元 |
| 一年至五年到期 | 421,598,000 美元 | 455,559,000 美元 |
| 五年至十年到期 | 2,091,645,000 美元 | 501,259,000 美元 |
| 十年以上到期 | 501,259,000 美元 | 2,097,990,000 美元 |
| 合计 | 3,061,075,000 美元 | 3,126,963,000 美元 |
*包括吉列公司的可赎回累积可转换优先股,摊销成本为 600,000,000 美元,估计市值为 720,000,000 美元(见下文附注 4)。
1990 年,因出售和赎回固定期限证券实现的总收益为 3,098,000 美元,总损失为 1,468,000 美元。
(4)对吉列公司累积可转换优先股的投资——后续事件
1989 年 7 月 20 日,伯克希尔的保险子公司购买了一期 600,000 股吉列公司可赎回累积可转换优先股,合计总价 600,000,000 美元。该期优先股的年股息率为每股 8,750 美元。根据条款,每股优先股可转换为 20 股吉列普通股。现金购买价格及面值为每股 1,000 美元——即 600,000,000 美元。根据该期优先股的条款,吉列在某些情况下有权在发行后两年之内行使权利,若未在通知指定的日期前转换,可按面值以现金赎回。吉列于 1991 年 2 月 28 日发出行使该权利的通知,并将 1991 年 4 月 1 日定为将优先股转换为 12,000,000 股吉列普通股之日。这些股份占吉列所有有表决权股份表决权的 11%。
(2) Business segment data See page 39. (3) Investments in obligations with fixed maturities maturities are as follows: The amortized cost and estimated market value as of December 31, 1990 of investments in obligations with fixed Amortized Gross Cost Unrealized Unrealized Gross Estimated Market Gains Losses Value Bonds: U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of and agencies.... J.S. government corporations Obligations of states, municipalities ...$ 6,665,000 $ 84,000 $ - $ 6,749,000 Corporate bonds .... and political subdivisions 576,588,000 87,622,000 (551,000) 663,659,000 Redeemable preferred stocks.. 514,547,000 13,787,000 (11,888,000) 516,446,000 1,963,275,000 120,141,000 (143,307,000) 1,940,109,000 $3,061,075,000 $221,634,000 $(155,746,000) $3,126,963,000 by contractual maturity dates. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because issuers of certain of Shown below are the amortized cost and estimated market values of the above obligations at December 31, 1990, the obligations retain early call or prepayment rights. Amortized Estimated Cost Market Due in one year or less Value Due after one year through five years.. $ 46,573,000 $ 56,922,000 Due after five years through ten years 421,598,000 455,559,000 Due after ten years 2,091,645,000 501,259,000 2,097,990,000 516,492,000 $3,061,075,000 $3.126,963.000
- Includes redeemable cumulative convertible preferred stock of The Gillette Company with an amortized cost
of $600,000,000 and an estimated market value of $720,000,000 (see the following Note 4). obligations with fixed maturities. During 1990, gross gains of $3,098,000 and gross losses of $1,468,000 were realized on sales and redemptions of (4) Investment in cumulative convertible preferred stock of The Gillette Company - subsequent event Convertible Preferred Stock of The Gillette Company ("'Gillette"), each preferred share convertible under the terms of On July 20, 1989, insurance subsidiaries of Berkshire purchased an Issue of 600,000 shares of redeemable Cumulative in the aggregate. Dividends with respect to the issue were at the annual rate of $8750 per share. Under the terms of the Issue into 20 shares of Gillette common stock. The cash purchase price and par was $1,000 per share - $600,000,000 to redeem the shares for cash at par if not converted by a date fixed by notice. Gillette gave notice of its exercise of that the Issue, Gillette possessed under certain circumstances the right, exercisable within a two-year period after issuance, shares of Gillette common stock. The shares possess 11% of the voting rights of all Gillette voting shares. right on February 28, 1991, and the date of April 1, 1991 was fixed as the date for conversion of the shares into 12 million 33
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合并财务报表附注(续)
(5) 吉列以外的可赎回累积可转换优先股投资
伯克希尔子公司持有除吉列以外的其他公司发行的可赎回有投票权累积可转换优先股股份,如下表所示:
| 发行日期 | 发行公司 | 每股发行价 | 总成本 | 股息率 | 强制赎回日期 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 年 10 月 1 日 | 所罗门公司 | 1,000 美元 | 700,000,000 美元 | 9.00% | * |
| 1989 年 8 月 7 日 | 全美航空集团 | 1,000 美元 | 358,000,000 美元 | 9.25% | 1999 年 8 月 7 日 |
| 1989 年 12 月 6 日 | 冠军国际公司 | 1,000 美元 | 300,000,000 美元 | 9.25% | 1999 年 12 月 6 日 |
*所罗门公司须从 1995 年起,每年 10 月 31 日按发行价赎回 140,000 股。
全美航空集团:截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日,该发行股份拥有发行公司已发行总投票权的 12%。自 1991 年 8 月 7 日起,伯克希尔可选择将该发行股份每股转换为 16 又 2/3 股普通股,且此前未转换股份,发行公司可选择以每股 1,100 美元赎回。
冠军国际公司:截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日,该发行股份拥有发行公司已发行总投票权的 8%。伯克希尔可随时将该发行股份每股转换为 26.31579 股普通股,且此前未转换股份,发行公司可选择以每股 1,150 美元赎回。
(6) 有价权益证券投资
截至所示日期,合并持有的有价权益证券汇总数据如下(关于确定这些证券账面价值所采用的方法,见附注 1(c)):
| 1990 年 12 月 31 日 | 成本 | 未实现损益 | 市值 | 账面价值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 普通股: | ||||
| 大都会/美国广播公司 | 517,500,000 美元 | |||
| GEICO 公司 | 1,023,919,000 美元 | |||
| 可口可乐公司 | 859,875,000 美元 | |||
| 华盛顿邮报公司 | 45,713,000 美元 | |||
| 富国银行 | 289,431,000 美元 | |||
| 其他有价权益证券 | 9,731,000 美元 | |||
| 合计 | 2,284,680,000 美元 | 414,133,000 美元 | 3,474,541,000 美元 | 3,474,541,000 美元 |
| 1989 年 12 月 31 日 | 成本 | 未实现收益 | 市值 | 账面价值 |
| 普通股: | ||||
| 大都会/美国广播公司 | 517,500,000 美元 | |||
| 可口可乐公司 | 1,023,919,000 美元 | |||
| GEICO 公司 | 998,912,000 美元 | |||
| 华盛顿邮报公司 | 45,713,000 美元 | |||
| 富国银行 | 9,731,000 美元 | |||
| 其他有价权益证券 | 55,124,000 美元 | |||
| 合计 | 3,566,298,000 美元 | 2,932,450,000 美元 | 6,493,948,000 美元 | 6,493,948,000 美元 |
(7) 大都会/美国广播公司股份投资
伯克希尔持有的大都会/美国广播公司 3,000,000 股普通股,截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日,拥有大都会全部已发行股份约 18% 投票权。这些股份的持有受一份协议约束,该协议赋予大都会对这些股份的优先购买权,并规定至 1997 年 1 月 3 日前这些股份的出售或转让方式。此外,伯克希尔及其子公司已向大都会交付了针对这些股份的不可撤销委托书,只要托马斯·S·墨菲或丹尼尔·B·伯克仍担任大都会首席执行官,就授权他们在所有大都会股东大会上投票表决。该委托书于 1997 年 1 月 2 日或当上述两人均不再担任大都会首席执行官时(以较早者为准)失效。
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (5) Investments in redeemable cumulative convertible preferred stocks other than Gillette Subsidiaries of Berkshire own issues of redeemable voting cumulative convertible preferred shares of companies other than Gillette as indicated in the following table: Dividend Date of Issue Price Aggregate Accrual Required redemption Issue Issuer per share Cost Rate Dates 10/1/87 Salomon Inc $1,000 $700,000,000 9.00% * 8/7/89 USAir Group Inc. 1,000 358,000,000 9.25% 8/7/99 12/6/89 Champion International Corp. 1,000 300,000,000 9.25% 12/6/99 *Salomon is required to redeem, at their issue price, 140,000 shares annually on October 31 commencing in 1995. an aste i he sue po, it Beck stire option at any me ito oing ians at Decame o 1he920 and each share f the issue is convertible, at Berkshire's option, a USAir Group Inc.: The issue possessed 12% of Issuer's total outstanding voting rights at December 31, 1990. After August subject to prior conversion, each share may be redeemed, at Issuer's option, at $1,100 per share. 7, 1991, each share of the issue may be converted, at Berkshire's option, into 16 2/3 common shares of the Issuer, and, 31, 1990. At any time each share of the issue is convertible at Berkshire's option into 26.31579 common shares of the Champion International Corporation: The issue possessed 8% of Issuer's total outstanding voting rights at December Issuer, and, subject to prior conversion, each share may be redeemed, at Issuer's option, at $1,150 per share. (6) Investments in marketable equity securities the dates indicated. See Note 1(c) as to methods applied to determine carrying value of these securities. Aggregate data with respect to the consolidated investment in marketable equity securities is shown below as of Unrealized December 31, 1990 Cost Gain (Loss) Market Carrying Common stock of: Value Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. GEICO Corporation ...... The Coca-Cola Company $ 517,500,000 1,023,919,000 $ 859,875,000 The Washington Post Company. 45,713,000 1,147,631,000 $1,377,375,000 2,171,550,000 $1,363,044,000 All other marketable equity securities.. Wells Fargo Company ............ 289,431,000 9,731,000 1,064,843,000 1,110,556,000 2,168,812,000 332,366,000 289,375,000 342,097,000 1,110,556,000 398,386,000 69,882,000 (56,000) 342,097,000 468,268,000 287,341,000 $2,284,680,000 414,133,000 $3,474,541,000 $5,759,221,000 $5,685,983,000 December 31, 1989 Cost Unrealized Common stock of: Gain Market Carrying Value Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.... The Coca-Cola Company $ 517,500,000 GEICO Corporation ...... 1,023,919,000 $1,174,875,000 998,912,000 779,868,000 $1,692,375,000 1,803,787,000 $1,672,794,000 The Washington Post Company 45,713,000 476,635,000 1,044,625,000 1,801,995,000 All other marketable equity securities.. Wells Fargo Company............... 55,124,000 9,731,000 130,572,000 5,436,000 486,366,000 1,044,625,000 60,560,000 486,366,000 162,673,000 $3,566,298,000 293,245,000 195,258,000 60,560,000 $1,814,660,000 $5,380,958,000 (7) Investment in shares of Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. $5,261,598,000 approximately 18% of the voting rights of all Capital Cities shares outstanding at December 31, 1990. The shares are The 3,000,000 common shares of Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. (Capital Cities") owned by Berkshire subsidiaries possessed and otherwise govern until January 3, 1997 the manner by which the shares may be sold or transferred. Also, Berkshire held subject to an Agreement, the terms of which grant to Capital Cities a right of first refusal to purchase the shares and its subsidiaries have delivered to Capital Cities irrevocable proxies with respect to these shares in favor of Thomas at any and all meetings of shareholders of Capital Cities. The proxies expire on January 2, 1997 or at the earlier date S. Murphy or Daniel B. Burke, so long as either shall be the chief executive officer of Capital Cities, to vote the shares when neither of such persons is chief executive officer of Capital Cities. 34
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(8) GEICO 公司投资
伯克希尔子公司截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日和 1989 年 12 月 31 日,均持有 GEICO 公司普通股 6,850,000 股,约占 GEICO 全部已发行股份投票权的 48%。根据 GEICO 所属州保险监管机构的命令(该命令源于伯克希尔子公司于 1976 年购入这些股份),伯克希尔不得寻求或导致改变独立的代理投票安排。伯克希尔保留了一项独立的代理投票安排,用于按命令要求行使这些股份的投票权。此外,根据该命令,伯克希尔及其任何关联公司或子公司的管理人员或董事,均不得担任 GEICO 的董事。由于该命令剥夺了伯克希尔对这些股份的投票权,伯克希尔在核算其对 GEICO 的投资时,未采用权益法。
(9) 所得税
随附合并资产负债表中所反映的所得税负债,为以下各项负债的估计数:
| 1990 年 12 月 31 日 | 1989 年 12 月 31 日 | |
|---|---|---|
| 当期应付 | 49,672,000 美元 | 36,906,000 美元 |
| 递延,与有价权益证券 | ||
| 未实现增值相关 | 1,085,342,000 美元 | 1,100,784,000 美元 |
| 因时间性差异产生的净预付 | (23,231,000) 美元 | (8,652,000) 美元 |
| 1,111,783,000 美元 | 1,129,038,000 美元 |
合并损益表中所反映的所得税费用如下表所示:
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 联邦 | 94,713,000 美元 | 142,996,000 美元 | 122,492,000 美元 |
| 州 | 16,779,000 美元 | 15,514,000 美元 | 15,871,000 美元 |
| 外国 | 555,000 美元 | 777,000 美元 | 2,428,000 美元 |
| 当期计提 | 126,626,000 美元 | 171,616,000 美元 | 159,287,000 美元 |
| 预付税款增加 | (14,579,000) 美元 | (12,329,000) 美元 | (9,044,000) 美元 |
| 112,047,000 美元 | 159,287,000 美元 | 140,791,000 美元 |
净预付税款的增加,代表以下时间性差异的税务影响:
| 适用项目: | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 递延保险保费获取成本 | 2,796,000 美元 | (3,588,000) 美元 | (8,515,000) 美元 |
| 损失及损失调整费用准备金的折现 | (549,000) 美元 | 5,607,000 美元 | 6,902,000 美元 |
| 结构化结算负债 | (10,363,000) 美元 | (7,377,000) 美元 | (10,988,000) 美元 |
| 分期收款销售上的递延毛利 | (9,598,000) 美元 | (7,752,000) 美元 | 1,287,000 美元 |
| 其他 | 3,767,000 美元 | 1,287,000 美元 | 3,767,000 美元 |
| (14,579,000) 美元 | (12,329,000) 美元 | (9,044,000) 美元 |
下表将所得税费用与按联邦法定税率计算的假设税额进行调节:
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 税前净利润 | 516,466,000 美元 | 617,224,000 美元 | 550,121,000 美元 |
| 按联邦法定税率计算的 | |||
| 上述金额的假设税额 | 175,598,000 美元 | 209,856,000 美元 | 187,041,000 美元 |
| 减少项,由以下各项产生: | |||
| 股息所得扣除 | (53,901,000) 美元 | (36,065,000) 美元 | (33,477,000) 美元 |
| 免税利息收入 | (19,744,000) 美元 | (26,735,000) 美元 | (21,461,000) 美元 |
| 州所得税,减联邦所得税收益 | 11,073,000 美元 | 1,991,000 美元 | 10,597,000 美元 |
| 其他净差异 | (979,000) 美元 | 10,240,000 美元 | (1,909,000) 美元 |
| 所得税合计 | 112,047,000 美元 | 159,287,000 美元 | 140,791,000 美元 |
(8) Investment in GEICO Corporation stock of GEICO Corporation. The shares possessed approximately 48% of the voting rights of all GEICO shares outstanding Subsidiaries of Berkshire, at both December 31, 1990 and at December 31, 1989, owned 6,850,000 shares of common by Order of GEICO's domiciliary insurance supervisory authority. The Order, dating from Berkshire subsidiaries' major at December 31, 1990. but Berkshire maintains an independent oroxy arrangement for votine of the shares as reaninod the Order, no officer or director of Berkshire or of any affiliate or subsidiary of Berkshire is permitted to serve as a director purchase of the shares in 1976, prohibits Berkshire from seeking or causing to change the independent proxy. Also, under the equity method of accounting for its investment in GEICO. of GEICO. Because the Order divests Berkshire of its voting rights with respect to the shares, Berkshire does not use (9) Income taxes of liabilities as follows: The liability for income taxes as reflected in the accompanying Consolidated Balance Sheets represent estimates Dec. 31, Deferred, relating to unrealized appreciation Payable currently. $ 49,672,000 1990 Dec. 31, $ 36,906,000 1989 Net prepaid arising from of marketable equity securities 1,085,342,000 1,100,784,000 timing differences. (23,231,000) (8,652,000) $1,111,783,000 $1,129,038,000 The Consolidated Statements of Earnings reflect charges for income taxes as shown below: State... Federal $ 94,713,000 1990 1989 Foreign 16,779,000 $142,996,000 $122,492,000 1988 555,000 15,514,000 777,000 15,871,000 2,428,000 $112,047,000 Increase in prepaid taxes Current provision. $126,626,000 $171,616,000 $159,287,000 $140,791,000 (14,579,000) (12,329,000) $149,835,000 (9,044,000) $112,047,000 $159,287,000 $140,791,000 The increase in net prepaid taxes represent the tax effects of timing differences as follows: Deferred insurance premium acquisition costs Applicable to: $ 1990 Discounting of losses and loss adjustment expense reserves Structured settlement liabilities... 2,796,000 (549,000) $(10,363,000) 1989 1988 (3,588,000) 5,607,000 (7,377,000) (8,515,000) 6,902,000 Delen gross profit on installment receivable .... (9,598,000) (7,752,000) (10,988,000) 1,287.000 3,767,000 (4,610,000) 7,029,000 $(14,579,000) $(12,329,000) $ (9,044,000) Charges for income taxes are reconciled, in the table which follows, to hypothetical amounts computed at the Federal statutory rate: 1990 1989 1988 Net earnings before income taxes $516,466,000 $617,224,000 $550,121,000 Hypothetical amounts applicable to above Decreases, resulting from: computed at the Federal statutory rate .. $175,598,000 $209,856,000 $187,041,000 Dividends received deduction Tax-exempt interest income... (53,901,000) (19,744,000) (26,735,000) State income taxes, less Federal income tax benefit.. 11,073,000 (36,065,000) (33,477,000) Net other differences.. (979,000) 10,240,000 (21,461,000) 1,991,000 10,597,000 (1,909,000) Total income taxes $112,047,000 $159,287,000 $140,791,000 35
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合并财务报表附注(续)
(10)定期债务及其他借款
1990 年和 1989 年 12 月 31 日。
下表列示了公司及其子公司在 1990 年和 1989 年 12 月 31 日的定期债务及其他借款情况:
| 借款类型 | 1990 年 | 1989 年 |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 年到期的零息可转换次级债券 | 4.28301 亿美元 | — |
| 2018 年 1 月 1 日到期的 10% 信用债券,通过偿债基金可赎回(偿债基金要求自 1999 年起每年偿还 750 万美元) | 4.05683 亿美元 | — |
| 2018 年 1 月 15 日到期的 9 3/4% 信用债券,通过偿债基金可赎回(偿债基金要求自 1999 年起每年偿还 500 万美元) | 1.5 亿美元 | 1.5 亿美元 |
| 投资协议项下的借款 | 3.24801 亿美元 | 1 亿美元 |
| 其他应付票据,到期日至 1993 年 | 747.5 万美元 | 1091.2 万美元 |
| 1996 年到期的 8.125% 票据 | 1.2 亿美元 | 1.2 亿美元 |
| 10% 票据,自 1997 年起分期偿还,每年 262.5 万美元,最后一笔于 1998 年 8 月 31 日偿还 275 万美元 | 2112.5 万美元 | 2375 万美元 |
| 9 1/2% 票据,分期偿还,每年 250 万美元 | 2000 万美元 | 2250 万美元 |
| 1999 年到期的 8 7/8% 票据 | 3000 万美元 | 3000 万美元 |
| 联邦住房贷款银行预付款,1994 年 8 月到期,利率 8.73% | 2075.6 万美元 | 1690 万美元 |
| 其他到期日至 2014 年的票据 | 1690 万美元 | 2016.7 万美元 |
| 合计 | 12.39358 亿美元 | 10.07516 亿美元 |
2004 年到期的零息可转换次级债券于 1989 年 9 月 28 日以面值的 44.314% 发行,面值总额为 9.0264 亿美元。发行价格反映了年利率 5.5% 的原始发行折价率和到期收益率;不支付定期利息。每张面值 1 万美元的债券可随时在赎回前转换为 0.4515 股普通股。若持有人在转换时本可获得一股普通股的部分股份,则将以现金代替,金额等于该部分股份当时的市场价值。转换比率仅在发生影响普通股的某些稀释性事件时进行调整。公司可在 1992 年 9 月 28 日之后的任何时间以现金赎回这些债券。持有人可要求公司在 1994 年 9 月 28 日和 1999 年 9 月 28 日购买其持有的任何债券。债券的购买或赎回价格将为发行价格加上截至购买或赎回日期的累计原始发行折价。
投资协议项下的借款按所得款项入账。相关债务可根据对方的选择在到期前随时赎回。此类借款的利率范围为 5.2% 至 10.5%。各种借款协议均不包含重大限制性契约。
1990 年 12 月 31 日未偿还借款在接下来五年内所需的还款额如下表所示。金额已在不考虑可选还款条款的情况下确定:
| 年份 | 金额 |
|---|---|
| 1991 | 3085.2 万美元 |
| 1992 | 1.08437 亿美元 |
| 1993 | 5272.5 万美元 |
| 1994 | 9952 万美元 |
| 1995 | 561.2 万美元 |
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (10) Term debt and other borrowings December 31, 1990 and 1989. The following table sets forth the term debt and other borrowings of the Company and its subsidiaries at Zero Coupon Convertible Subordinated Notes Due 2004. § 428,301,000 1990 1989 10% Debentures due January 1, 2018, redeemable $ 405,683,000 through operation of a sinking fund which calls for 9 3/4% Debentures due January 15, 2018, redeemable annual repayments of $7,500,000 beginning in 1999 150,000,000 150,000,000 through operation of a sinking fund which calls for Borrowings under obligations of investment agreements annual repayments of $5,000,000 beginning in 1999.. 100,000,000 Other notes, payable through 1993... 324,801,000 100,000,000 1,010,577,000 7,475,000 109,120,000 774,199,000 9,396,000 8.125% Notes, payable in 1996 10% Notes, payable in annual installments of $2,625,000 120,000,000 120,000,000 through 1997 with a final payment of $2,750,000 9 1/2% Notes, payable in annual installments of $2,500,000 on August 31, 1998... 21,125,000 23,750,000 8 7/8% Notes, payable in 1999 20,000,000 22,500,000 Federal Home Loan Bank advance, due August 1994, 30,000,000 30,000,000 Other notes maturing through 2014 bearing interest at 8.73%.. 20,756,000 16,900,000 16,900,000 20,167,000 $1,239,358,000 $1,007,516,000 face value which totaled $902,640,000. The issue price reflected an original issue discount rate and yield to maturity The Zero Coupon Convertible Subordinated Notes Due 2004 were issued on September 28, 1989 at 44.314% of their time prior to redemption into 0.4515 shares of common stock. A holder otherwise entitled upon conversion to a fractional of 5.5% per annum; there are no periodic payments of interest. Each $10,000 face amount note may be converted at any The conversion rate will be adjusted only upon occurrence of certain dilutive events affecting the common stock. The share of common stock shall receive in lieu thereof cash equal to the then current market value of such fractional share. purchase any of its holdings on September 28, 1994 and again on September 28, 1999. The price at which notes will Company may redeem the notes for cash at any time after September 28, 1992. A holder may require the Company to be purchased or redeemed will be issue price plus accrued original discount to the date of purchase or redemption. at various times prior to maturity at the option of the counterparty. Interest rates on such borrowings range from 5.2% Borrowings under obligations of investment agreements are recorded at proceeds received. Obligations may be called No materially restrictive covenants are included in any of the various borrowing agreements. Principal payments on borrowings outstanding at December 31, 1990 are required during the succeeding five year 5) she en i he ble trumediately below. Amounts have been determined vithout regard to optional repayment provisions 1991 1992 $ 30,852,000 1993 108,437,000 1994 52,725,000 99,520,000 1995 5,612,000 36
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(11)股东权益账户
最近三年股东权益账户的变动情况如下:
| 留存收益 | 未实现增值 | 库存股 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 年 12 月 31 日余额 | 11.0412 亿美元 | 16.1422 亿美元 | 4093.8 万美元 |
| 1988 年计入可交易股权证券账面价值的未实现增值增加 | 2.5949 亿美元 | ||
| 1988 年视为适用的未实现增值变动 | (18.9 万美元) | ||
| 少数股东权益增加 | (887.6 万美元) | ||
| 1988 年净收益 | 3.9927 亿美元 | ||
| 与养老金计划终止相关的价值调整 | 135.5 万美元 | ||
| 1988 年 12 月 31 日余额 | 12.7466 亿美元 | 20.1349 亿美元 | 4229.3 万美元 |
| 1989 年计入可交易股权证券账面价值的未实现增值增加 | 16.2346 亿美元 | ||
| 1989 年视为适用的未实现增值变动 | (5.5231 亿美元) | ||
| 少数股东权益增加 | (360.7 万美元) | ||
| 1989 年净收益 | 4.4748 亿美元 | ||
| 1989 年 12 月 31 日余额 | 23.4219 亿美元 | 24.6097 亿美元 | 4229.3 万美元 |
| 1990 年计入可交易股权证券账面价值的未实现增值减少 | (456.4 万美元) | ||
| 1990 年视为适用的未实现增值变动 | (15.7 万美元) | ||
| 少数股东权益增加 | 1544.1 万美元 | ||
| 1990 年净收益 | 3.9409 亿美元 | ||
| 1990 年 12 月 31 日余额 | 23.1043 亿美元 | 28.5506 亿美元 | 4229.3 万美元 |
(12)利息和股息收入
过去三年每年的利息和股息收入构成如下:
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 与以下项目相关的利息收入: | |||
| 投资证券 | 1.3269 亿美元 | 1.1493 亿美元 | 1.6450 亿美元 |
| 融资应收款 | 5398.5 万美元 | 5090.4 万美元 | 5113.5 万美元 |
| 固定到期优先股 | 1.7674 亿美元 | 1.0218 亿美元 | 6365.2 万美元 |
| 可交易股权证券股息 | 8687.4 万美元 | 6343.9 万美元 | 3496.5 万美元 |
| 总计 | 4.5030 亿美元 | 3.3145 亿美元 | 3.1425 亿美元 |
(13)利息支出
利息支出由 Mutual 储蓄与贷款协会(“Mutual”)的储蓄账户利息以及债务利息构成,具体如下:
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mutual 的储蓄账户 | 2197.5 万美元 | 2126.1 万美元 | 2057.9 万美元 |
| Scott Fetzer 金融集团的债务 | 1286.8 万美元 | 59.9 万美元 | |
| Mutual 的债务 | 147.5 万美元 | ||
| 其他债务 | 7637.4 万美元 | 4238.9 万美元 | 3561.3 万美元 |
| 总计 | 1.1269 亿美元 | 7757.4 万美元 | 7028.0 万美元 |
(11) Shareholders' equity accounts Changes in Shareholders' Equity accounts during the most recent three years were as follows: Net Unrealized Appreciation Earnings Retained Treasury Increase during 1988 in unrealized appreciation Balance at December 31, 1987 $1,104,123,000 $1,614,221,000 $ 40,938,000 Stock included in carrying value of marketable Change during 1988 in deemed applicable equity securities 259,486,000 Increase in minority shareholders' interest .... (88,763,000) Net earnings 1988.. in unrealized appreciation .. (189,000) 399,270,000 Value termination of pension d in comection 1,355,000 Increase during 1989 in unrealized appreciation Balance at December 31, 1988 1,274,657,000 2,013,491,000 42,293,000 equity securities........ included in carrying value of marketable Change during 1989 in deemed income taxes applicable 1,623,462,000 Increase in minority shareholders' interest (552,314,000) Net earnings 1989.. in unrealized appreciation (3,607,000) 447,477.000 Balance Decrease during 1990 in unrealized appreciation December 31, 1989. 2,342,198,000 2,460,968,000 42,293,000 included in carrying value of marketable (45,636,000) Change during 1990 in deemed applicable Increase in minority shareholders' interest 15,441,000 in unrealized appreciation (1,570,000) Net earnings 1990. 394,093.000 Balance December 31, 1990. .. $2,310,433,000 $2,855.061,000 $ 42,293,000 (12) Interest and dividend income Interest and dividend income for each of the past three years was comprised of the following: 1990 1989 1988 Interest earned with respect to: Investment securities. $132,694,000 Dividends fin esed receivables. 53,985,000 $114.928,000 50,904,000 $164,499,000 51,135,000 Fixed maturity preferred stocks Marketable equity securities ...'... 176,742,000 86,874,000 102,181,000 63.439,000 63,652,000 34.965.000 $450,295.000 $331,452,000 $314,251,000 (13) Interest expense Interest expense is comprised of interest on savings accounts of Mutual Savings and Loan Association ("Mutual" plus interest on debt as follows: 1990 1989 1988 Savings accounts of Mutual. $ 21,975,000 Debt of Scott Fetzer Financial Group .. Debt of Mutual. 12,868,000 1,475,000 $ 21,261,000 599,000 $ 20,579,000 Other debt . 76,374,000 42,389,000 13,325,000 35,613,000 14,088,000 $112.692,000 $ 77.574,000 $ 70,280,000 37
[第 40 页]
[PAGE 40]
合并财务报表附注(续)
(14)股息限制——保险子公司
保险集团成员支付股息受到保险法规的限制。未经 1991 年监管机构事先批准,伯克希尔可从保险子公司获得高达约 607,800,000 美元的股息。
根据法定会计规则确定的保险子公司合并股东权益(保单持有人盈余)在 1990 年 12 月 31 日约为 6,300,000,000 美元。这一金额超过了按公认会计原则确定的相应金额约 900,000,000 美元;差额主要来自财务报告目的确认但法定报告目的未确认的递延所得税负债。
(15)季度数据
本信息未经审计。金额以千美元为单位,每股数据除外。
过去两年各季度收入和收益摘要如下表所示。
| 1990 年第一季度 | 1989 年第一季度 | 1990 年第二季度 | 1989 年第二季度 | 1990 年第三季度 | 1989 年第三季度 | 1990 年第四季度 | 1989 年第四季度 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 收入 | $590,776 | $701,707 | $545,310 | $564,214 | $525,965 | $597,143 | $997,421 | $620,828 |
| 剔除已实现投资收益的盈利 | $84,151 | $72,241 | $82,917 | $62,424 | $81,712 | $70,932 | $121,965 | $94,305 |
| - 每股 | 73.40 | 63.01 | 72.32 | 54.45 | 71.27 | 61.87 | 106.39 | 82.49 |
| 已实现投资收益 | $325 | $54,813 | $11,041 | $25,011 | $8,502 | $50,723 | $3,480 | $17,028 |
| - 每股 | 0.29 | 47.81 | 9.63 | 21.82 | 7.42 | 44.25 | 3.03 | 14.34 |
| 净利润 | $84,476 | $127,054 | $93,958 | $87,435 | $90,214 | $121,655 | $125,445 | $111,333 |
| - 每股 | 73.69 | 110.82 | 81.95 | 76.27 | 78.69 | 106.12 | 109.42 | 96.83 |
《世界百科全书》产品的收入和收益集中在第一季度。喜诗糖果的销售在复活节达到高峰,更显著的是在第四季度,该业务通常有一半以上的年收入在此期间入账。一个可能影响伯克希尔中期合并财务报表的非季节性因素是,保险子公司未付损失负债确定过程中固有的估计误差,这对中期业绩的影响相对全年业绩可能更为显著。已实现证券收益或损失的金额和时间波动会导致各期净利润出现重大变化。
致董事会和股东
独立审计师报告
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
我们审计了所附的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及其子公司 1990 年和 1989 年 12 月 31 日的合并资产负债表,以及截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日止三年各期的相关合并收益表和现金流量表。这些财务报表是公司管理层的责任。我们的责任是根据我们的审计对这些财务报表发表意见。
我们按照公认审计准则进行了审计。这些准则要求我们计划和执行审计,以获得合理保证,确保财务报表不存在重大错报。审计包括在测试基础上检查财务报表中的金额和披露的证据。审计还包括评估管理层使用的会计原则和重大估计,以及评价整体财务报表列报。我们认为,我们的审计为我们的意见提供了合理的基础。
我们认为,上述合并财务报表在所有重大方面公允地反映了伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及其子公司 1990 年和 1989 年 12 月 31 日的财务状况,以及截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日止三年各期的经营成果和现金流量,符合公认会计原则。
1991 年 3 月 8 日
德勤会计师事务所
内布拉斯加州奥马哈
38
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued) (14) Dividend Restrictions - Insurance Subsidiaries prior regulatory approval in 1991, Berkshire can receive up to approximately $607,800,000 as dividends from insurance Payments of dividends by Insurance Group members are restricted by insurance statutes and regulations. Without subsidiaries. Surplus as Regards Policyholders) was approximately $6,300,000,000 at December 31, 1990. This amount exceeded by Combined shareholders' equity of insurance subsidiaries determined pursuant to statutory accounting rules (Statutory approximately $900,000,000 the corresponding amounts determined on the basis of generally accepted accounting principles; the difference is principally represented by deferred income tax liabilities recognized for financial reporting purposes but not for statutory reporting purposes. (15) Quarterly data This information is unaudited. Dollars are in thousands, except per share amounts. A summary of revenues and earnings by quarter for each of the last two years is presented in the following table. 19901989 1ST QUARTER 2ND QUARTER 1990 1989 3RD QUARTER 1990 1989 1990 4TH QUARTER Revenues 1989 $590,776 $701,707 $545,310 $564,214 $525.965 $597,143 $997,421 $620,828 Earnings excluding realized investment gain
- per share
$ 84,151 $ 72,241 73.40 63.01 $ 82,917 $ 62,424 $ 81,712 $ 70,932 72.32 54.45 71.27 $121,965 $ 94,305 Realized investment gain $ 325 $ 54,813 61.87 $ 11,041 $ 25,011 106.39 $ 82.49
- per share
0.29 47.81 9.63 21.82 • 8,502 $ 50,723 7.42 44.25 $ 3,480 $ 17,028 Net earnings $ 84,476 $127,054 $ 93,958 $ 87,435 3.03 14.34
- per share
73.69 110.82 81.95 76.27 $ 90,214 $121,655 78.69 106.12 $125,445 $111,333 Revenues and earnings from marketing of World Book products are concentrated in the first quarter. See's Candy 109.42 96.83 sales peak at Easter and more notably so in the fourth quarter when more than one-half of annual revenues for that business are normally recorded. A non-seasonal factor that may influence Berkshire's interim consolidated financial statements can be relatively more significant to results of interim periods than to results for a full year. Variations in amount and is that estimation error, inherent to the process of determining liabilities for unpaid losses of insurance subsidiaries, timing of realized securities gains or losses cause significant variations in periodic net earnings. To the Board of Directors and Shareholders INDEPENDENT AUDITORS' REPORT Berkshire Hathaway Inc. December 31, 1990 and 1989, and the related consolidated statements of earnings and cash flows for each of the three We have audited the accompanying consolidated balance sheets of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and subsidiaries as of years in the period ended December 31, 1990. These financial statements are the responsibility of the Company's management. Our responsibility is to express an opinion on these financial statements based on our audits. we plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance about whether the financial statements are free of material We conducted our audits in accordance with generally accepted auditing standards. Those standards require that financial statements. An audit also includes assessing the accounting principles used and significant estimates made misstatement. An audit includes examining, on a test basis, evidence supporting the amounts and disclosures in the by management, as well as evaluating the overall financial statement presentation. We believe that our audits provide a reasonable basis for our opinion. financial position of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. In our opinion, the consolidated financial statements referred to above present fairly, in all material respects, the their operations and their cash flows for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 1990, in conformity and subsidiaries as of December 31, 1990 and 1989, and the results of with generally accepted accounting principles. March 8, 1991 DELOITTE & TOUCHE Omaha, Nebraska 38
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
业务分部数据
(千美元)
第 14 项:以下说明各主要活动/产品/服务:
根据财务会计准则委员会声明,伯克希尔有七个可报告业务分部。
| 分部 | 活动/产品/服务 |
|---|---|
| 糖果 | 盒装巧克力及其他糖果产品 |
| 保险 | 财产/意外保险及再保险 |
| 报纸 | 出版《布法罗新闻》,一份日报和周日版报纸 |
| 百科全书及其他参考材料 | 编撰、出版及销售《世界百科全书》和其他教育及参考著作 |
| 家居用品零售 | 地毯、家具、家电、电子产品及相关产品的零售 |
| 家用清洁系统 | 主要制造和分销 Kirby 品牌的家用清洁系统及产品 |
| 制服制造与分销 | 制造和分销制服、裤子、夹克、衬衫和帽子 |
以下表格反映近三个年度各分部的数据。
| 收入 | 税前经营利润 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
| 糖果 | $2,659,472 | $2,483,892 | $2,464,893 | $516,466 | $617,224 | $550,121 |
| 保险 | ||||||
| 报纸 | ||||||
| 百科全书及其他参考材料 | ||||||
| 家居用品零售 | ||||||
| 制服制造与分销 | ||||||
| 家用清洁系统 | ||||||
| 其他 |
保险分部
| 收入 | 税前经营利润 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | ||||
| 已赚保费: | |||||||||
| 直接或原保险 | $154,015 | $188,920 | $292,309 | ||||||
| 分入再保险 | 437,525 | 205,359 | 291,926 | ||||||
| 承保(损失) | $(26,647) | $(24,400) | $(11,081) | ||||||
| 投资收益 | 335,930 | 250,723 | 231,907 | ||||||
| 已实现投资利得 | 15,807 | 220,024 | 127,731 | ||||||
| $943,277 | $865,026 | $943,873 | $316,207 | $439,223 | $347,900 | ||||
| 折旧与摊销 | 资本支出 | 年末可辨认资产 | |||||||
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
| 保险 | $6,970 | $601 | $525 | $838 | $708 | $918 | $8,884,393 | $7,871,097 | $5,421,195 |
| 报纸 | |||||||||
| 糖果 | 722 | 2,229 | 3,882 | 971 | 3,509 | 988 | 48,286 | 69,833 | 48,917 |
| 66,278 | 64,304 | 50,755 | |||||||
| 家居用品零售 | 3,752 | 3,574 | 2,909 | 2,757 | 2,836 | 3,392 | |||
| 百科全书及其他参考材料 | 1,397 | 2,247 | 2,037 | 1,792 | 1,745 | 1,612 | 75,714 | 71,107 | 70,660 |
| 家用清洁系统 | 3,859 | 11,191 | 7,705 | 3,552 | 2,370 | 329 | 107,913 | 66,388 | 103,159 |
| 60,147 | 85,675 | 45,675 | |||||||
| 制服制造与分销 | 1,124 | 5,285 | 3,274 | 749 | 2,575 | 746 | |||
| 其他 | 9,832 | 17,897 | 1,330 | 2,272 | 5,418 | 2,203 | 13,236 | 1,736 | |
| 13,589 | 13,421 | 2,115 | |||||||
| 1,698 | 71,572 | 1,346,324 | |||||||
| $33,923 | $42,537 | $17,692 | $30,542 | $28,721 | $27,002 | 1,168,292 | 1,005,575 | ||
| $10,670,423 | $9,459,594 | $6,816,848 |
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. Business Segment Data (dollars in thousands) No. 14. The principal activity/product/service of each is described below: Berkshire had seven reportable business segments as defined in Financial Accounting Standards Board Statement Segment Activity/product/service Candy.. Insurance. Property/casualty insurance and reinsurance. Newspaper. Boxed chocolates and other confectionery products. Retailing of home furnishings. Publication of the Buffalo News, a daily and Sunday newspaper. Encyclopedias, other reference materials .... Composition, publication and marketing of World Book Carpet, furniture, appliances, electronics and related products. Home cleaning systems.. Manufacture and distribution of principally Kirby branded home encyclopedias and other educational and reference works. Uniform manufacturing and distribution... Manufacture and distribution of uniforms, trousers, jackets, cleaning systems and products. shirts, and caps. The tables which follow reflect data for those segments for each of the three most recent years. 1990 Revenues 1989 1988 Operating profit before taxes 1990 1989 1988 Candy Insurance Newspaper Encyclopedias, other reference materials Retailing of home furnishings........ Uniform manufacturing and distribution Home cleaning systems........ Other... $2,659,472 $2,483,892 $2,464,893 $516,466 $617.224 $550,121 Insurance Segment Premiums earned: 1990 Revenues 1989 1988 Operating profit before taxes 1990 1989 1988 Primary or direct $154,015 Underwriting (loss)... Reinsurance assumed 437,525 $188,920 205,359 $292,309 291,926 Investment income .... 335,930 Realized investment gain 15,807 220,024 250,723 231,907 $ (26,647) $ (24,400) $ (11,081) 127,731 327,047 15,807 243,599 220,024 127,731 231,250 $943,277 $865,026 $943,873 $316,207 $439,223 $347,900 Deprec. & amort. 1990 of tangible assets Identifiable assets 1990 Capital expenditures 1989 _ 1988 1990 at year-end 1989 1988 1989 1988 • Insurance Newspaper Candy... $ 6,970 601$ 525$ 838 $ 708 $ 918 $ 722 2,229 3,882 971 3,509 988 3,752 3,574 2,909 2,757 2,836 3,392 $ 8,884,393 $7,871,097 $5,421,195 48,286 69,833 48,917 66,278 64,304 50,755 • Retailing of home Encyclopedias, furnishings…. 1,397 2,247 2,037 1,792 1,745 1,612 75,714 71,107 70,660 Home cleaning systems.. other ref. mat.. 3.859 11,191 7,705 3,552 2,370 329 1,124 5,285 3,274 749 2,575 746 107,913 66,388 103,159 60,147 85,675 45,675 Uniform manuf. Other. and distr. 9,832_17,897 1,330 2,272 5,418 2,203 13,236 1,736 13,589 13,421 2,115 1,698 71,572 1,346,324 1,168,292_1,005,575 70,597 73,009 $33.923 $42,537 $17,692 $30,542 528,721 $27,002 810.670.423 $9,459,594 $6,816,848 39
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[PAGE 42]
财务状况与经营成果
管理层讨论与分析
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
经营成果
(单位:千美元,所有数字均已扣除所得税影响)
下表列示了过去三年各年的净利润构成。金额单位为千美元。
| 项目或业务 | 1990 年 | 1989 年** | 1988 年** |
|---|---|---|---|
| 保险承保 | $ (14,936) | $ (12,259) | $ (1,045) |
| 保险业务投资收入 | 282,613 | 213,642 | 267,677 |
| 制造、零售及服务业 | 197,779 | 201,383 | 196,734 |
| 债务利息* | (124,129) | (126,260) | (85,829) |
| 未分配收入/费用,净额 | (49,726) | (27,098) | (23,212) |
| 已实现投资收益前的利润 | 370,745 | 299,902 | 313,441 |
| 已实现投资收益 | 23,348 | 147,575 | 85,829 |
| 净利润 | $ 394,093 | $ 447,477 | $ 399,270 |
*消费者金融子公司的债务利息以及部分与服务业务相关的常规债务利息,未反映在“债务利息”中,而是已予净额列示。
**已按要求重述,以与 1990 年可比。
本报告前一页的“业务分部”数据应结合本讨论一并阅读。
保险承保
上表保险承保的税后数据来源于以下信息:
| (千美元) | 1990 年 | 1989 年 | 1988 年 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 承保利润(亏损): | |||
| 直接保险业务 | $ 546 | $ 4,243 | $ 17,466 |
| 再保险分入 | (27,193) | (28,643) | (35,526) |
| 承保亏损 - 税前 | (26,647) | (24,400) | (18,060) |
| 适用所得税抵减* | 11,511 | 11,781 | 9,670 |
| 税后承保亏损 | (15,136) | (12,619) | (8,390) |
| 适用少数股东权益 | 200 | 360 | 366 |
| 归属于伯克希尔的税后承保亏损 | $ (14,936) | $ (12,259) | $ (1,045) |
*适用于承保亏损的所得税抵减包括一项“新起点”税收优惠,1990 年约为 230 万美元,1989 年约为 300 万美元,1988 年约为 500 万美元。
伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团同时从事财产/意外险的保险与再保险业务。在其“保险”活动(区别于“再保险”活动)中,成员公司承担主要并直接面临风险的个人或实体的损失风险。在其再保险活动中,成员公司承担其他保险公司和再保险公司面临的部分类似或不同风险。
Financial Condition and Results of Operation Management's Discussion and Analysis of BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. Results of Operations in thousands, and each figure is income tax-effected. Net earnings for each of the past three years are disaggregated in the table that follows. Amounts are Activity or Item 1990 Contribution to Net Earnings Insurance underwriting. 1989** 1988** Insurance segment investment income..... $ (14,936) 282,613 $ (12,259) 213,642 $ (1,045) 267,677 197,779 Manufacturing, merchandising, and services ....... 132,209 201,383 196,734 Interest on debt*.... 124,129 126,260 Unallocated income/expense, net. (49,726) (27,098) (23,212) Earnings before realized investment gain 370,745 20,585 1,488 13,659 Realized investment gain.. 23,348 147,575 299,902 313,441 $ 394,093 $ 447,477 $ 399,270 85,829 *Interest expense with respect to debt of consumer finance subsidiaries as well as interest expense of usuals dings elated service ac is ny refected in interest on deb"but, instead, has been netted **Restated as required for comparability to 1990. this discussion. The Business Segment data on the preceding page of this report should be read in conjunction with Insurance Underwriting The after-tax figures shown above for Insurance underwriting derive from the following: 1990 000s Omitted 1989 Underwriting gain (loss): 1988 Primary or Direct Insurance Operations Reinsurance Assumed .......... $ 546 $ 4,243 $17,466 Underwriting loss - pre-tax. (27,193) (28,643) Applicable income tax credit* (26,647) (28,547) (24,400) After-tax underwriting loss...... Applicable minority interest.. 11,511 (11,081) 200 11,781 9,670 $(14.936) $(12,259) 360 $(1,045) 366 approximately $2.3 million for 1990, $3 million for 1989, and $5 million for 1988 *Income tax credits applicable to underwriting losses include a "fresh start" tax benefit o property/casualty risks. In its "insurance" activities, as distinguished from its "reinsurance" activities, its The Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group engages in both insurance and reinsurance of activities, the members assume defined portions of similar or dissimilar risks to which other insurers and members assume risks of loss from persons primarily and directly subject to the risks. In its reinsurance 40
[第 43 页]
[PAGE 43]
保险承保(续)
伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团的成员公司奉行严格的承保纪律,目标是拒绝定价过低的保单风险。过去四年里,随着行业资本相对于保费总量的增长,市场价格(保险费率)不断下降。因此,该集团每年承保的风险数量都在递减。与此同时,伯克希尔投入保险业务的资本每年都在增加。截至 1990 年底,伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团面向保单持有人的法定盈余增至约 63 亿美元。这种独特的资本实力为伯克希尔集团成员公司创造了机遇,使它们能够为那些前瞻性地关注保险公司资本充足率和偿付能力的精明保险及再保险买家,协商并签订专门设计的保险合同。
主要保险或直接保险承保
下表汇总了伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团主要或直接保险业务的综合承保结果(根据公认会计原则计算)。
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 金额(千美元) | 占比 | 金额(千美元) | 占比 | 金额(千美元) | 占比 | |||
| 已收保费 | ||||||||
| 已赚保费 | $139,085 | 100.0% | $169,661 | 100.0% | $218,838 | 100.0% | ||
| 损失及损失费用 | 102,033 | 66.2% | 125,873 | 66.6% | 196,165 | 67.1% | ||
| 承保费用 | 51,436 | 33.4% | 58,804 | 31.1% | 78,678 | 26.9% | ||
| 损失及费用合计 | 153,469 | 99.6% | 184,677 | 97.7% | 274,843 | 94.0% | ||
| 承保利润 - 税前 | $ 546 | 0.4% | $ 4,243 | 2.3% | $ 17,466 | 6.0% |
下一页讨论的期初损失准备金有利变动(分别占 1990、1989 和 1988 年已赚保费的 11.9%、10.6% 和 10.0%),被贷记回那些年份的损失和费用。如果没有这些贷项(或者换一种说法,如果只将当年发生事故的估计损失和费用与表中当年已赚保费数额相关联),则总损失和费用占已赚保费的百分比将等于:1990 年——111.5%,1989 年——108.3%,1988 年——104.0%。
伯克希尔主要或直接保险业务所接受的风险数量在 1986 年达到顶峰,此后每年都显著下降。这种下降在集团内各直接业务承保单位中均有体现,如下表过去四年的已赚保费所示:
| 承保单位 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1987 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (百万美元) | ||||
| 传统机动车/一般责任险业务 | $ 94 | $113 | $168 | $268 |
| Homestate 公司/Cypress 保险公司 | 18 | 20 | 42 | 56 |
| 纽约商业意外/职业责任/特殊风险业务 | 42 | 54 | 70 | 80 |
| 其他 | — | 2 | 12 | 37 |
| 已赚保费合计 | $154 | $189 | $292 | $441 |
“传统业务”是通过设在全国各地的总代理承保的,由国民赔偿公司奥马哈办公室指导。这些业务在内部被称为“国民赔偿集团”的业务。从五十年前国民赔偿公司成立之初起,该集团的业务量就每年差异很大,在行业承保能力有限时增加,当行业承保能力扩张时减少。当承保能力充足时,大部分业务都由竞争对手承保,它们的做法是:(i)收取低于国民赔偿公司接受的价格,并且(ii)采用比国民赔偿公司更宽松的承保准则。这些较低的价格持续存在,直到周期中的某个点,国民赔偿公司的主要保险公司……
Insurance Underwriting (continued) objective of rejecting underpriced risks. In each of the past four years, market prices (premium rates) have Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group members employ disciplined underwriting practices with the eroded as industry capital has increased in relation to industry premium volume. As a result the Insurance to the insurance industry increased each year. Statutory surplus as regards policyholders of the Berkshire Group has successively underwritten fewer risks each year. Meanwhile, the amount of Berkshire capital devoted strength creates opportunities for Berkshire Group members to negotiate and enter into contracts of insurance Hathaway Insurance Group increased to approximately $6.3 billion at year-end 1990. This unique capital looking concerns about capital adequacy and solvency of their insurers. specially designed to meet unique needs of sophisticated insurance and reinsurance buyers having forward Primary or Direct Insurance Underwriting accepted accounting principles ("'GAAP"), of the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group's primary or direct A summary follows of the combined underwriting results, determined on the basis of generally insurance operations. 1990 (Dollars are in thousands) Premiums written. Amount Premiums earned $139,085 % Amount 1989 % 1988 $154,015 Losses and loss expenses 102,033 100.0 $169,661 $218,838 Amount % Underwriting expenses ... 51,436 66.2 $188,920 100.0 125,873 66.6 $292,309 196,165 100.0 67.1 Total losses and expenses.... 153,469 33.4 Underwriting gain - pre-tax $ 546 99.6 184,677 58,804 31.1 78,678 26.9 $ 4,243 97.7 274,843 94.0 $ 17,466 representing respectively, 11.9%, 10.6% and 10.0% of premiums earned in 1990, 1989 and 1988, were credited Favorable development, discussed on the following page, of beginning-of-the-year loss reserves to losses and expenses of those years. Without those credits (or, stated differently, if only estimated losses and expenses from occurrences of the current year were related to amounts shown in the table for premiums earned for the current year), total losses and expenses as a percentage of premiums earned would equal: 1990 — 111.5%, 1989 — 108.3%, and 1988 - 104.0%. The number of risks accepted in Berkshire's primary or direct insurance operations peaked in 1986 underwriting units that produce the Group's direct business, as reflected in the following table of premiums and has declined significantly each succeeding year. The declines have been shared by each of the earned for the past four years: Traditional motor vehicle/general liability operations .. Underwriting Unit $ 94 1990 (Dollars in millions) 1989 1988 Homestate companies/Cypress Insurance Co. N.Y. commercial casualty/professional liability/specialty risk operations 18 $113 $168 1987 42 20 54 $268 Total premiums earned... $154 $189 56 $292 70 80 93 $441 The "traditional business is written through general agents located nationwide directed from primary group. " Historically from the founding of National Indemnity Company fifty years ago, the volume National Indemnity's Omaha offices. The operations are termed internally as those of the "National Indemnity industry insuring capacity and decreasing when that capacity expanded. When capacity was adequate, much of business written by this group varied significantly from year to year, increasing during periods of limited Indemnity, and (ii) applying less stringent underwriting guidelines than those applied by National Indemnity. of the business was written by competing insurers (i) charging prices lower than those acceptable to National Those Lawer rices continued this the sultes una such point in the cyle, Natoma/ ady arity Compan 41
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管理层讨论(续)
保险承保(续)
及其关联的保险集团成员获得了更多机会,以它们认为足够的价格承保风险。近年来,该集团经历了这一周期的下行阶段。上行阶段的迹象——即符合集团接受标准的承保机会增多——尚未显现。
集团在纽约市的承保部门同样秉持严格的承保纪律,这些部门于 1985 年开始运营。从这些办事处承保的保单赚取的保费在 1987 年达到 9300 万美元的峰值,此后逐年下降,1990 年总计 1800 万美元。这些商业意外/职业责任和特殊风险承保部门为那些呈现异常和/或异常巨大风险的投保人提供“量身定制”的保险合同。许多标准保险公司在能够充分利用其承保能力为标准风险提供标准保障时,会拒绝提供此类保障,即出现在 1985 年和 1986 年那样的紧缩市场中,但那些保险公司在 1987 年至 1990 年期间已越来越多地参与竞争并承保了大部分此类业务。
伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团的本州公司——位于科罗拉多、堪萨斯和内布拉斯加——在过去两年均减少了保费承保量。它们在宽松市场环境下采取的严格承保方法导致了市场份额的流失。在加利福尼亚,Cypress 保险公司因市场竞争激烈以及该部门管理层变动,大幅缩减了其有效的工伤保险业务。
应当理解,关于保险集团运营的任何管理判断均不以业务量为依据。相反,集团鼓励其成员拒绝定价不足的风险,而不考虑承保量。
前文的讨论旨在解释保费金额的下降趋势。以下汇总了来自主要或直接保险承保的损失及损失费用数据:
| 1990 年 | 1989 年 | 1988 年 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (千美元计) | |||
| 年初未付损失及损失费用 | $639,146 | $667,592 | $628,077 |
| 计列的已发生损失: | |||
| 当年发生的事故 | 120,376 | 145,907 | 225,309 |
| 所有以前年度发生的事故 | (18,343) | (20,034) | (29,144) |
| 102,033 | 125,873 | 196,165 | |
| 与以下项目相关的支付: | |||
| 当年发生的事故 | 21,742 | 39,263 | 37,245 |
| 所有以前年度发生的事故 | 132,851 | 154,593 | 154,319 |
| 154,593 | 193,856 | 191,564 | |
| 年末未付损失及损失费用 | $586,586 | $639,146 | $667,592 |
在最近三年中,每年都因“所有以前年度发生的事故”而计列了已发生损失的冲减项。这些是对估算误差的修正,在修正发生的年度计入或冲减收益。将每年的这些冲减项与年初相关的已估算未付金额联系起来,这些“节省额”为:1990 年——2.9%,1989 年——3.0%,1988 年——4.6%。若伯克希尔的管理层和股东由此推断这些“节省”表明年初估算的未付金额过高,且高出的可测量幅度在 2.9% 至 4.6% 之间,那将令人欣慰。但这是错误的,因为很明显,并非所有案件都已结案。然而,连续几年出现有利的损失进展,比连续几年出现不利的进展更令人欣慰。1990 年是该保险集团主要或直接业务连续第四年出现有利的损失进展。对于 1987 年,这四年中的第一年,有利的进展相当于年初已估算未付金额的 2.2%。相比之下,1986 年则录得不利的损失进展,相当于年初负债的 7.6%。
Management's Discussion (continued) Insurance Underwriting (continued) and its affiliated Insurance Group members were offered increased opportunities to underwrite the risks at prices they believed to be adequate. In recent years, the group has experienced the down-side of this cycle. The upside, evidenced by increased offerings meeting the Group's acceptance standards, has not yet been observed. commenced operations in 1985. Earned premiums from policies underwritten from these offices peaked at Disciplined underwriting is also practiced by the Group's New York City underwriting units that casualty/professional liability and special risks underwriting units generate "tailored" insurance contracts $93 million in 1987 and then declined each year since, totalling $18 million in 1990. These commercial for insureds presenting unusual and/or unusually large risks. Many standard carriers decline to provide such i.e., in tight markets such as those of 1985 and 1986, but those carriers have increasingly competed for, and coverages when their capacity can be fully employed in providing standard coverages for standard risks, written much of the business in the 1987-1990 period. Nebraska — reduced their premium writings in each of the past two years. Their disciplined underwriting The Homestate companies of the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group — in Colorado, Kansas and approach in a soft market environment resulted in loss of market share. In California, Cypress Insurance Company significantly reduced its in-force workers' compensation business as a result of a highly competitive market as well as management turnover at the unit. It should be understood that no management judgments with respect to the Insurance Group's operations The preceding discussion is given to explain the downward trend in dollar amount of premiums. regard to volume. are based on volume of business done. Instead, members are encouraged to reject underpriced risks without Summarized below is loss and loss expense data from primary or direct insurance underwriting: Unpaid losses and loss expenses at beginning of year.... 1990 000s Omitted Incurred losses recorded: $639,146 $667,592 1989 $628.077 1988 Current year occurrences All prior years' occurrences. (18,343) 120,376 (20.034) 145,907 225,309 Payments with respect to: 102,033 125,873 _(29,144) 196,165 All prior years' occurrences. Current year occurrences..... 132,851 21,742 27,645 $586,586 154,593 126,674 39,263 $639,146 154,319 117,387 Unpaid losses and loss expenses at end of year .... $667,592 156,650 occurrences." They are corrections of estimation error that are credited or charged to earnings in the year Credits against incurred losses were recorded in each of the last three years for "all prior year made. Relating these credits for each year to the related estimated unpaid amounts at the beginning of the to Berkshire's management and shareholders to infer that the "savings" reveal that the estimated beginning- respective year, the "savings" were: 1990 — 2.9%, 1989 — 3.0% and 1988 — 4.6%. It would be comforting But that would be wrong because, obviously, all of the cases have not been settled. However, several years of-the-year unpaid amounts were too high and by a measurable amount that fell between 2.9% and 4.6%. of favorable loss development is more comforting than several years of unfavorable development, and 1990 was the Insurance Group's fourth successive year of favorable development for the primary or direct operations. For 1987, the first of the four, favorable development amounted to 2.2% of beginning-of-the- amounting to 7.6% of the beginning liability. year estimated unpaid amounts. In contrast, however, for 1986, unfavorable development was recorded, 42
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保险承保(续)
上文定义的“主要团体”的商业汽车业务。1988 年的 1,400 万美元以及 1989 年和 1990 年记录的有利进展主要与传统储蓄有关,而该年度另外 850 万美元的储蓄则来自超赔责任险类型的责任保险。
再保险分入业务
在过去几年中,我们在本节中将结构结算活动与“传统”再保险活动分开。然而,伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险集团的所有再保险活动在 1990 年的讨论中合并讨论,因此,以下三个表格中的往年数据已根据之前的表述进行了重述。
1990 年,保险集团的大部分保费收入来自为其他保险公司和再保险公司提供再保险的合同,这些合同保障他们免受自身损失准备金方面出现不利损失发展的风险。这些是规模可观的合同,产生了 1990 年 3.78 亿美元的保费收入。
下表总结了按公认会计原则确定的、与再保险分入业务相关的过去三年的承保业绩。
| 1990 年 | 金额(千美元) | 占比% | 金额(千美元) | 1989 年 占比% | 金额(千美元) | 1988 年 占比% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 已承保保费 | 435,205 | 126,430 | 265,871 | |||
| 已赚保费 | 437,525 | 100.0 | 205,358 | 100.0 | 291,926 | 100.0 |
| 损失和损失费用 | 432,228 | 98.8 | 183,518 | 89.4 | 241,530 | 82.7 |
| 承保费用 | 32,490 | 7.4 | 50,484 | 24.5 | 78,943 | 27.1 |
| 损失和费用总额 | 464,718 | 106.2 | 234,002 | 113.9 | 320,473 | 109.8 |
| 承保(亏损)——税前 | (27,193) | (28,644) | (28,547) |
以下提供了与保险集团再保险活动相关的分类数据。
| 百万美元 | 已赚保费 | 承保亏损 | 年末准备金\* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | |
| 主要成数再保险 | 130.6 | 215.5 | 197.1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 332.6 | 411.9 | 434.8 |
| 除结构结算外的其他再保险 | 306.9 | (10.1) | 94.8 | 14.9 | 16.5 | 26.0 | 1,131.1 | 385.3 | 304.8 |
| 结构结算 | 437.5 | 205.4 | 291.9 | 27.2 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 1,463.7 | 797.2 | 739.6 |
\*未完损失和损失调整费用
上表列示的 1989 年和 1988 年的主要成数再保险的已赚保费,源于一项协议:从 1985 年 9 月 1 日至 1989 年 8 月 31 日的四年期内,国民赔偿公司承保了消防员基金保险公司 7% 的业务。
对于上表中“除结构结算外的其他再保险”类别,1990 年的已赚保费绝大部分代表本再保险分入业务讨论第二段提到的、针对不良损失发展合同所收取的对价。对于 1990 年第四季度签订的这些合同,1990 年未记录任何承保利润或亏损。在 1990 年就该等合同确认的 350,787,000 美元递延费用,其摊销将从 1991 年开始。
过去三年中,结构结算产生的承保亏损主要反映了这些负债的自然增值,但 1989 年确认了少量精算收益。
Insurance Underwriting (continued) commercial automobile business of the "primary group" defined above. That was true of $14 million of 1988 The favorable development recorded in 1989 and 1990 related principally to the traditional savings, while an additional $8.5 million of that year's savings derived from excess-of-loss claims-made type liability coverages. Reinsurance Assumed reinsurance activity. However, all of the reinsuring activities of the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group In past years, in this section, we set apart the structured settlement activity from the "conventional" three tables are restated from prior years' are combined for purposes of this 1990 discussion and, accordingly, prior year data shown in the following presentations. reinsurance contracts that insured other insurers and reinsurers against sustaining adverse loss development In 1990, the Insurance Group derived the majority of their insurance premium volume from of $378 million. with respect to their own loss reserves. These were sizeable contracts that generated 1990 premium income for the past three years are summarized in the following table. Underwriting results, determined on a GAAP basis, with respect to the reinsurance assumed business 1990 Dollars in Thousands Premiums written. Amount Premiums earned $435,205 % Amount 1989 $126,430 % Amount 1988 $265,871 % Losses and loss expenses $437,525 Underwriting expenses... 432,228 100.0 98.8 $205,358 183,518 100.0 Tolal losses and expenses.. 32,490 7.4 50,484 89.4 $291,926 241,530 100.0 24.5 78,943 82.7 Underwriting (Loss) - pre-tax. $(27,193) 464,718 106.2 $(28,644) 113.9 320,473 27.1 234,002 $ (28,547) 109.8 Disaggregated data relating to reinsuring activities of the Insurance Group are presented below. Premiums Earned Underwriting Loss Dollars in Millions Year-End Reserves* Major quota share reinsurance $130.6 $215.5 Other reinsurance except $ 12.3 332.6 $411.9 $434.8 Structured settlements... structured settlements $437.5 $205.4 $291.9 $27.2 $ 28.6 $ 28.5 $1,463.7 $797.2 $739.6 197.1 128.9 *Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses Premiums earned from major quota share reinsurance shown above for 1989 and 1988 reflect those from the arrangement under which, for a four year term from September 1, 1985 through August 31, 1989, National Indemnity assumed 7% of the business written by the Fireman's Fund Insurance Companies. the premiums earned in 1990 preponderantly represent the consideration received for the adverse loss For the category in the above table captioned "other reinsurance excluding structured settlements," development contracts referred to in the second paragraph of this discussion of reinsurance assumed. No underwriting gain or loss was recorded for 1990 with respect to those contracts entered into in the fourth quarter of 1990. Amortization of the $350,787,000 deferred charges established in 1990 with respect thereto will commence in 1991. accretion of the liabilities therefor, except that a modest amount of actuarial gain was credited in 1989. The underwriting loss from structured settlements in each of the past three years reflect principally 43
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管理层讨论(续)
保险板块投资收益
以下是保险集团过去三年净投资收益的汇总。
(单位:千美元)
| 税前及少数股东权益前投资收益 | 适用所得税 | 适用少数股东权益 | 扣除所得税及少数股东权益后收益 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | $327,047 | $41,264 | $3,170 | $282,613 |
| 1989 | $243,599 | $26,756 | $3,201 | $213,642 |
| 1988 | $231,250 | $30,698 | $2,773 | $197,779 |
过去三年,投资资产每年均有所增加。在此期间,伯克希尔向该集团贡献了约 9 亿美元的额外资本,而该集团在该期间的留存收益累计约为 8.5 亿美元。此外,三年内投资资产的增长还来自保单持有人资金带来的约 1.75 亿美元的浮存金增加。(该术语指未付损失、未付损失调整费用及未赚保费的总和,减去应收代理人余额、已付损失的再保险可收回金额、递延保单获取成本及再保险递延费用后的净额,截至 1990 年底该净额总计约为 1,632,000,000 美元。)
保险集团就其 6 亿美元的吉列可转换优先股投资,在 1990 年获得了 52,500,000 美元的股息收入。该笔投资将于 1991 年 4 月 1 日转换为吉列普通股。按照吉列当前普通股股息支付率计算,该普通股的年股息金额约为 13,000,000 美元。因此,1991 年保险集团的投资收益可能会较 1990 年有所下降。
制造业、零售业及服务业
伯克希尔旗下多元化非保险业务过去三年的经营业绩汇总如下表。金额单位为千美元。
| 1990 | % | 1989 | % | 1988 | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 营业收入 | $1,657,025 | 100.0 | $1,601,858 | 100.0 | $1,429,652 | 100.0 | ||
| 成本及费用 | 1,389,317 | 86.3 | 1,486,194 | 86.7 | 1,274,466 | 85.8 | ||
| 适用所得税 | 82,644 | 5.4 | 80,154 | 5.4 | 88,952 | 5.4 | ||
| 适用少数股东权益 | 5,212 | 0.3 | 5,768 | 0.4 | 5,314 | 0.4 | ||
| 净利润 | $ 124,129 | 8.0 | $ 126,260 | 7.7 | $ 132,209 | 8.4 |
上表中“营业收入”项的金额排除了从事这些业务的公司实体所赚取的某些投资收益项目,因为该收益无法明确归属于分配给这些业务的资本。此类项目在 1990 年合计为 40,900,000 美元。早年此类项目金额较小——1989 年为 11,600,000 美元,1988 年为 14,500,000 美元。为便于与 1990 年数据进行比较,早年数据已进行重述,剔除了这些项目及其对税收、少数股东权益及收益的影响。
上述 1990 年及 1989 年数据代表了伯克希尔非保险业务(包括第 50 页所列的六大非保险“可报告经营分部”)的经营综合业绩,此外还包括斯科特-费泽金融集团的融资业务,以及伯克希尔和西科金融旗下的互助储蓄与贷款协会及中等规模房地产管理活动的经营成果。
Management's Discussion (continued) Insurance Segment Investment Income Following is a summary of Insurance Group net investment income for the past three years. 000s Omitted Investment Investment Income Applicable Applicable Income After Before Income Minority Taxes and Taxes Taxes Interest Minority Int. 1989 1990. $327,047 $ 41,264 $ 3,170 $282,613 1988 243,599 26,756 3,201 213,642 231,250 30,698 2,773 197,779 approximately $900 million additional capital to the Group, and reinvested earnings of the Group for that Invested assets increased in each of the past three years. During that period, Berkshire contributed period amounted to approximately $850 million. Additionally contributing to the increase in invested assets during the three-year period was about $175,000,000 increased "float" from policyholder funds. (That term denotes the sum of unpaid losses, unpaid loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums, less the aggregate of agents' balances receivable, amounts recoverable as reinsurance on paid losses, deferred policy acquisition costs and deferred charges re reinsurance, the net amount of which totalled approximately $1,632,000,000 at the end of 1990.) investment in the Gillette convertible preferred stock that will be converted on April 1, 1991 into Gillette The Insurance Group received 1990 dividend income of $52,500,000 with respect to its $600,000,000 common stock. Annual dividends from such common stock, at Gillette's current common dividend payment rate, would amount to approximately $13,000,000. Thus, some decrease from the 1990 level of Insurance Group investment income may occur in 1991. Manufacturing, Merchandising and Services Results of operations for the past three years of Berkshire's diverse non-insurance businesses are aggregated in the following table. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 1990 1989 1988 Revenues..... $1,657,025 Amount 10000 % $1,601,858 Amount % 1,429,652 227,373 86.3 Applicable minority interest 88,952 13.7 1,389,317 100.0 $1,486,194 Amount Costs and expenses...... Net earnings.. $ 132,209 6,212 5.4 212,541 86.7 0.3 82,644 13.3 1,274,466 100.0 Applicable income taxes ...... Earnings before income taxes.. 8.0 $ 124,129 5,768 5.2 211,728 14.2 85.8 0.4 80,154 5.4 7.7 $ 126,260 5,314 8.4 0.4 A mounts reflected above for "Revenues" exclude certain items of investment income earned by the corporate entities conducting these businesses where that income is not clearly attributable to the capital earned in prior years — $11.6 million in 1989 and $14.5 million in 1988, but for purposes of comparability allocated to the businesses. Such items aggregated $40.9 million for 1990. Lesser amounts of such items were to 1990 data, data for the prior years are restated to remove the items and their effects on taxes, minority interest and earnings. insurance businesses — including the six non-insurance "reportable business segments" - identified on The above data for 1990 and 1989 represents the combined results from operations of the non- and Loan Association and moderate scale real estate management activities of Berkshire and Wesco. page 50 plus financing operations of the Scott Fetzer Financial Group, plus operations of Mutual Savings 44
[第 47 页]
[PAGE 47]
制造、零售与服务(续)
六个非保险报告业务板块 1990 年的收入高于 1989 年约 5100 万美元,即约 5%,其税前经营利润也高于 1989 年约 1200 万美元,即约 7%。因此,1990 年新增的收入和税前利润几乎全部来自这六个业务板块。关于这六个板块的详细信息如下。
喜诗糖果业务
喜诗糖果业务在 1990 年创下了有史以来最高的年销售额。然而,实际销量较 1989 年仅增长不到 1%。大宗订单带来的约 4.5% 的磅数增长,被零售门店约 2% 的磅数下降所抵消。年初实施的约 5% 的提价,加上销量的轻微增长,使得 1990 年糖果销售收入较 1989 年增加了 1010 万美元,增幅为 5.4%。1990 年零售门店的销量放缓在第四季度尤为明显。西海岸购物中心门店客流量的减少态势延续到了 1991 年。除非零售销售面临的压力得到缓解,否则尽管 1991 年产品售价有所提高,喜诗今年仍不太可能实现收入或经营利润的增长。
报纸业务
1990 年前九个月,报纸总收入较上年同期增长约 1%,税前利润则基本持平。然而,在 1990 年第四季度,几乎各类广告的版面和收入都出现了显著下滑,导致《布法罗新闻》的收入较 1989 年第四季度减少了约 130 万美元,降幅为 3%。受第四季度经济衰退压力的影响,报纸的税前经营利润从 1989 年的 4540 万美元下降到 1990 年的 4340 万美元,下降了 5%。这是自 1983 年伯克希尔将其对《布法罗新闻》的持股从先前的 60% 提升至 100% 以来(当年该报的年经营利润为 1900 万美元),该报年度利润首次出现下降。不过,收入和利润面临的压力预计将持续,因此该报 1991 年的盈利预期将会出现另一轮更大程度的下降。
家居用品零售
内布拉斯加家具城 1990 年的收入较 1989 年增长了 4%。然而,1990 年第四季度的销售额增幅较小,仅为 1%。1990 年较高的销售额主要来自电子产品和家电销售的增长,因为家具城在这些产品的区域市场份额有所提升。家具城 1990 年的成本增长速度超过了销售收入的增长速度。除了通胀压力外,1990 年为了改善客户服务而增加了成本,特别是用于增加销售点人员的工资支出。
百科全书及其他参考资料
该板块 1990 年的收入较 1989 年增长了约 1%。国际销售额有所增长,国内非百科全书类出版物的销售亦是如此。但 1990 年国内百科全书的单位销量和美元收入均令人失望,可能是因为销售代表的招募不足。过去两年中,百科全书的收入均出现下降。国内针对百科全书的特别促销活动反响平淡。该板块 1990 年的税前利润较 1989 年增加了约 630 万美元,增幅达 25%,达到 3160 万美元。促成这一增长的因素包括:1990 年与该板块搬迁和重组活动相关的成本降低(此类成本在 1989 年为 690 万美元,而 1990 年为 515 万美元)。此外,该板块在 1990 年录得了约 70 万美元的外汇兑换收益,而 1989 年则录得了约 55 万美元的外汇兑换损失。
Manufacturing, Merchandising and Services (continued) by approximately $51 million or about 5%, and their operating profits before taxes were greater in 1990 than Revenues of the six non-insurance reportable business segments were greater in 1990 than in 1989 pre-tax profits from the twenty five-plus operations were generated by those six business segments. Further in 1989 by approximately $12 million or about 7% Thus, virtually all of the increased 1990 revenues and information about each of the six follows. See's Candy Business See's candy business recorded its highest-ever annual sales volume in 1990. However, the physical volume was up over 1989 by less than 1%. An increase of approximately 4.5% in pounds sold in response to quantity orders was reduced by a decrease of about 2% in pounds sold from the retail stores. A selling volume of sales, resulted in a $10.1 million, 5.4% increase in 1990 candy sales revenue over 1989. price increase of about 5%, initiated at the beginning of the year, together with the slight increase in physical traffic at West Coast mall stores has continued into 1991. Unless this pressure abates on retail sales, it is The slowing in 1990 retail store volume was more notable in the last quarter of the year. Reduced unlikely that increases in revenue or operating profit can be achieved at See's in the current year, notwithstanding some increase in 1991 selling prices. Newspaper Business profits were virtually unchanged from, those for the prior year's first nine months. However, in 1990's fourth The total newspaper revenues for the first nine months of 1990 were about 1% ahead of, and pre-tax quarter, a marked decline occurred in virtually every category of advertising lineage and revenue, with the result that revenues at the Buffalo News were down from 1989's fourth quarter periods by approximately $1.3 million, or 3%. declined 5% in 1990 to $43.4 million, from $45.4 million in 1989. The decrease in annual profits is the first As a result of the fourth quarter recessionary pressures, newspaper operating profits before taxes paper in 1983 (when the paper's annual operating profits were $19 million). But, the pressures on revenues experienced for the Buffalo News since Berkshire succeeded to 100% from its earlier 60% ownership of the and earnings are seen as continuing, so that another and somewhat greater decline is in prospect for the paper's 1991 earnings. Retailing of Home Furnishings quarter sales increased by a lesser 1%. Higher 1990 sales came primarily from increased sales of electronics The Nebraska Furniture Mart's revenues increased 4% in 1990 over 1989. However, 1990's fourth and appliances, as the Mart increased its share of the area market for those products. pressures, 1990 added costs were incurred to achieve improved customer service, particularly payroll costs Costs at the Mart in 1990 increased over 1989 at a greater rate than sales. In addition to inflationary for added point-of-sale personnel. Encyclopedias, Other Reference Materials as did domestic sales of publications other than encyclopedias. Domestic unit sales of and dollar revenue Revenues of this segment were about 1% higher for 1990 than for 1989. International sales increased encyclopedias was disappointing in 1990, possibly because of inadequate recruitment of sales representatives. from the latter declined in each of the past two years. Response to domestic special promotions of the to $31.6 million. Among other factors contributing to this increase were lower 1990 costs relating to relocating Pre-tax profit of this segment in 1990 increased over 1989 by approximately $6.3 million, or 25%, and reorganizing the activities of the segment. Such costs incurred were $6.9 million in 1989 versus 515 million in 1990. Also foreign currency exchange gains of approximately $700,000 were recorded for the segment in 1990, contrasted to foreign exchange losses in 1989 that amounted to approximately $550,000. 45
[第 48 页]
[PAGE 48]
管理层讨论(续)
制造、销售与服务(续)
家用清洁系统
1990 年推出的第三代 Kirby 吸尘器引发了显著的消费者反响。Kirby 吸尘器 1990 年的销售数量比 1989 年国内增长 8%,国际增长 20%。新机型的单价高于被取代的 Legend II 机型,因此该业务板块的销售收入从 1989 年到 1990 年增长了 18%。新款 Kirby 产品的成功营销掩盖了 1990 年特种吸尘器产品(主要面向零售商)销售额下降 200 万美元的事实。
Fechheimer 制服
这家制服制造和销售业务的收入在 1990 年比 1989 年小幅增长——1%。该业务的经营利润在 1990 年本应略高于 1989 年,但由于 1990 年第四季度末的 LIFO(后进先出)存货调整超出预期,以及前一年第四季度出售一块未使用且已增值的房地产实现的 50 万美元收益,使得 1990 年第四季度的业绩与前一年同期相比处于不利地位。除了后者的账面调整外,随着 1989 年收购的一家制造工厂在运营中逐步整合,该板块的盈利水平在 1990 年期间逐步改善,之前的问题已逐渐减少。1991 年有望看到该业务板块的经营业绩进一步改善。
利息费用
1990 年和 1989 年的债务利息均有所增加,反映了未偿还借款的增加。1989 年和 1990 年的增长均体现了对 1989 年 9 月 28 日发行的零息可转换次级票据增值所计提的费用。1990 年比 1989 年的进一步增长,还反映了与投资合同项下平均未偿债务增加相关的额外借贷成本。
已实现投资收益
多年来,已实现投资收益一直是伯克希尔净利润中的一个经常性项目。这一金额——在伯克希尔出售已增值的证券时入账——往往在各个时期之间大幅波动,并对伯克希尔的合并净利润产生显著影响。但是,鉴于伯克希尔合并投资组合中存在大量未实现价格增值,任何时期的已实现投资收益金额都不具有预测价值,且各期之间的金额变动也不具有实际分析价值。
流动性与资本资源
伯克希尔截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日的合并资产负债表反映了持续的资本实力。伯克希尔股东的权益已从 1987 年 12 月 31 日的约 28.4 亿美元增至 1990 年 12 月 31 日的约 52.9 亿美元。在这三年期间,已实现和未实现的证券收益使股权资本增加了约 14.6 亿美元。除已实现证券收益外的再投资收益,三年间约为 9.84 亿美元。
1991 年初,标准普尔公司重申了对伯克希尔高级债务的 AAA 信用评级。次级于高级债务的债权人债务通常获得的评级比高级债务低一个等级。相应地,伯克希尔发行的零息次级票据在该评级机构保持 AA + 评级。
Management's Discussion (continued) Manufacturing, Merchandising and Services (continued) Introduction in 1990 of the Generation III model Kirby vacuum cleaner generated significant Home Cleaning Systems consumer response. Unit sales of Kirby cleaners in 1990 were up 8% domestically and 20% internationally over 1989. The unit price of the new model is higher than for the replaced Legend II model, so that dollar revenues of this segment increased 18% from 1989 to 1990. Success in marketing the new Kirby product masked a $2 million decline in 1990 from sales, principally to retailers, of specialty vacuum products. Fechheimer Uniforms 1990 over 1989. Operating profits of the operation would have been slightly higher in 1990 than for those Revenues from this uniform manufacturing and marketing operation were up slightly - 1% - in of unused, appreciated real estate. Fourth quarter 1990 results also compared unfavorably with fourth quarter of the prior year except for a $500,000 gain realized in the prior year's fourth quarter upon sale of a parcel 1989 results because of a larger than anticipated year-end LIFO inventory adjustment. Except for the latter gradually decreased in integrating into the operations a manufacturing facility acquired in 1989. Further bookkeeping adjustment, levels of profitability of the segment gradually improved during 1990 as problems improved operating results from this segment are in prospect for 1991. Interest Expense the 1989 and 1990 increases reflect the expense recorded for accretion of the zero coupon convertible Interest on debt increased in both 1990 and 1989, reflecting increased outstanding borrowings. Both subordinated notes issued on September 28, 1989. The 1990 increase over 1989 additionally reflects the added borrowing costs with respect to the increase in the average outstanding obligations under investment contracts. Realized Investment Gain The amount - recorded by Berkshire when appreciated securities are sold - tends to fluctuate significantly Realized investment gain has been a recurring element in Berkshire's net earnings for many years. of realized investment gain for any period has no predictive value, and variations in amount from period from period to period, with a meaningful effect upon Berkshire's consolidated net earnings. But, the amount to period have no practical analytical value, given the pre-existence of substantial unrealized price appreciation in Berkshire's consolidated investment portfolio. Liquidity and Capital Resources Berkshire shareholders' equity has increased from approximately $2.84 billion at December 31, 1987 to Berkshire's Consolidated Balance Sheet as of December 31, 1990, reflects continuing capital strength. approximately $5.29 billion at December 31, 1990. In that three-year period, realized and unrealized securities gains increased equity capital by approximately $1.46 billion. Reinvested earnings, other than realized securities gains, were approximately $984 million for the three years. Berkshire senior debt. Indebtedness of creditors that is subordinated to senior debt normally receives a rating In early 1991, Standard and Poor's Corporation reaffirmed its assignment of a AAA credit rating to notes retains an AA + rating from that rating agency. one gradation lower than for the senior debt. Accordingly, Berkshire's issue of zero coupon subordinated 46
[第 49 页]
[PAGE 49]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
保险集团
以国民赔偿公司为首,总部设在内布拉斯加州奥马哈。伯克希尔的保险业务由 12 家独立的子公司运营,这些子公司主要承保公交车运营商的多项责任险,以及针对特别大型或不寻常风险的意外险。其商业意外险/专业责任险/特殊风险分部设于纽约市,负责招揽和承保后一类业务。位于科罗拉多州、堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州的成员公司向“本州”居民提供标准的多险种财产/意外险。一家注册在加利福尼亚州的成员公司主要向财产/意外险领域的雇主提供工伤保险。设在纽约市的再保险分部向其他财产/意外险承保公司提供合约再保险,以及财产/巨灾转分保保护(即为再保险公司提供再保险)。该分部目前是再保险及财产/巨灾转分保领域的主要提供商之一。伯克希尔·哈撒韦集团的财务实力达到无与伦比的水平,显著高于行业常态,这使集团成员有别于其竞争对手。例如,1990 年集团净承保保费约占集团年末法定盈余的 9%。相比之下,行业的平均保费与盈余比率约为 155%(1989 年)。因此,为集团投保人提供的这种显而易见的安全边际,在单独协商的保险和再保险合同营销中尤其具有说服力。集团未经审计、且未完全按照公认会计原则调整的合并财务报表,列示于下两页。
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. INSURANCE GROUP headed by National Indemnity Company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. The Berkshire's insurance business is conducted by 12 separate subsidiaries, members underwrite multiple lines of principally casualty coverages for primarily bus operators, and casualty coverages for especially large or unusual risks. The commercial accounts, providing, for example, liability coverages for truck and in New York City, solicit and underwrite the latter. Members domiciled in Commercial Casualty/Professional Liability/Special Risks Division, with offices property/casualty insurance to "homestate" residents. A California domiciled the states of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska provide standard multiple-line member provides principally workers' compensation insurance to employers in property/casualty insurers and A Reinsurance Division in New York City provides treaty reinsurance to other This division is currently one of the leading providers reinsurance and property/catastrophe retrocessional protection (i.e., reinsurance for reinsurers). unparalleled high levels, significantly higher tha maintain inape industry this The Berkshire Hathaway Group's net premiums written in 1990 were approximately 9% of the Group's strength differentiates Group members from their competitors. For example, the year-end statutory surplus. That compares to an industry average premiums-to- provided to insureds of the Group are particularly persuasive in marketing of surplus ratio of about 155% (for 1989). The obvious margins of safety thus individually negotiated insurance and reinsurance contracts. Group - unaudited and not fully adjusted to conform to Generally Accepted Combined financial statements of the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Insurance Accounting Principles - are presented on the following two pages. 47
[第 50 页]
[PAGE 50]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
保险业务
(单位:百万美元)
资产负债表
12 月 31 日
资产
1990
1989
投资:
持有至到期固定收益证券:
债券:
RJR 纳贝斯克
华盛顿公共电力供应系统
$
187.7
可赎回优先股:
其他
188.9
$
136.5
377.4
409.4
194.0
金佰利
吉列
279.0
全美航空
所罗门公司
600.0
279.0
637.0
624.0
600.0
权益证券(按市值计算):
其他
348.0
0.7
348.0
0.7
普通股:
大都会/美国广播公司
GEICO
可口可乐公司
2,166.0
1,354.4
1,799.2
1,664.2
富国银行
《华盛顿邮报》
1,110.6
342.1
1,044.6
232.9
278.7
486.4
不可赎回优先股
其他
60.6
72.6
63.1
23.5
应收款项
现金及现金等价物
8,176.0
7,733.2
222.2
115.6
45.4
其他
递延成本
364.2
71.0
2.3
15.0
2.3
$8,880.3
$7,866.9
负债
未到期保费
损失及损失调整费用
$2,050.3
226.0
126.4
$1,436.3
所得税(递延:1990 年 10.811 亿美元;1989 年 10.953 亿美元)
应付账款、应计费用及其他
143.6
1,099.0
1,136.2
201.0
权益
少数股东权益
伯克希尔股东权益
5,338.8
39.8
4,914.6
35.2
5,378.6
4,949.8
$8,880.3
$7,866.9
本报表并非在所有方面符合公认会计准则
本报表未经审计
48
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. INSURANCE GROUP (dollars in millions) Balance Sheets December 31, Assets 1990 1989 Investments: Fixed maturities at amortized cost: Bonds: RJR Nabisco... Wash. Pub. Power Supply System $ 187.7 Redeemable preferred stocks: Other 188.9 $ 136.5 377.4 409.4 194.0 Champion International ... Gillette......... 279.0 USAir Salomon Inc 600.0 279.0 637.0 624.0 600.0 Equity securities at market: Other 348.0 0.7 348.0 0.7 Common stocks: Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. GEICO .. Coca-Cola Company. 2,166.0 1,354.4 1,799.2 1,664.2 Wells Fargo Company Washington Post. 1.110.6 342.1 1,044.6 232.9 278.7 486.4 Nonredeemable preferred stocks Other. 60.6 72.6 63.1 23.5 Receivables.. Cash and cash equivalents.. 8,176.0 7,733.2 222.2 115.6 45.4 Other. Deferred costs 364.2 71.0 2.3 15.0 2.3 $8,880.3 $7,866.9 Liabilities Unearned premiums.. Loss and loss adjustment expenses. $2,050.3 226.0 126.4 $1,436.3 Income taxes (Deferred: $1,081.1, 1990; $1,095.3, 1989) . Accounts payable, accruals and other. 143.6 1,099.0 1,136.2 201.0 Equity 3.501.7 2,917.1 Minority shareholders'..... Berkshire shareholders' 5,338.8 39.8 4,914.6 35.2 5,378.6 4,949.8 $8,880.3 $7,866.9 These statements do not conform to GAAP in all respects These statements are unaudited 48
[第 51 页]
[PAGE 51]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
保险集团
收益表
(单位:百万美元)
承保保费
1989 年
$ 296.1
已赚保费
承保费用
损失及损失费用
$ 394.3
309.4
损失及费用总额
109.3
净投资收益
承保亏损——税前
418.7
(24.4)
已实现投资收益
243.9
所得税费用
税前经营收益
220.1
少数股东权益
净利润
3.0
$ 347.2
净投资收益表
(单位:百万美元)
1990 年
1989 年
1988 年
利息:
基本免征联邦所得税:
华盛顿公共电力供应系统
应税:
其他
$ 27.1
30.5
$ 27.3
51.6
$
34.6
64.6
RJR 纳贝斯克
27.0
3.4
其他
91.2
6.6
100.8
18.5
145.9
46.7
股息:
金佰利
大都会/美国广播公司
25.8
0.6
0.6
37.3
1.9
0.6
52.5
13.7
31.3
-
GEICO
可口可乐公司
12.3
4.4
56.1
23.5
11.2
吉列
32.2
56.1
-
全美航空
所罗门公司
10.8
6.9
12.9
56.1
3.2
-
《华盛顿邮报》
335.9
8.8
6.1
2.0
-
2.7
其他
富国银行
$ 327.0
(8.9)
250.7
231.9
11.0
投资费用
$ 246.3
$ 231.2
(0.7)
净投资收益
这些报表并非在所有方面均符合公认会计原则
这些报表未经审计
49
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. INSURANCE GROUP Statements of Earnings (dollars in millions) Premiums written. 1989 $ 296.1 emiums earne Underwriting expenses ses and loss expens $ 394.3 309.4 Total losses and expenses 109.3 Net investment income.. Underwriting loss - pre-tax. 418.7 (24.4) Realized investment gain 243.9 Income tax expense.. Earnings from operations before income taxes 220i. Minority interest. Net earnings ... 3.0 $ 347.2 Statements of Net Investment Income (dollars in millions) 1990 1989 1988 Interest: Substantially exempt from Federal income taxes: Wash. Pub. Power Supply System Taxable: Other. $ 27.1 30.5 $ 27.3 51.6 $ 34.6 64.6 RJR Nabisco 27.0 3.4 Other.. 91.2 6.6 100.8 18.5 145.9 46.7 Dividends: Champion International Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. 25.8 0.6 0.6 37.3 1.9 0.6 52.5 13.7 31.3 - GEICO ... Coca-Cola Company... 12.3 4.4 56.1 23.5 11.2 Gillette. 32.2 56.1 - USAir... Salomon Inc 10.8 6.9 12.9 56.1 3.2 - Washington Post... 335.9 8.8 6.1 2.0 - 2.7 Other. Wells Fargo Company. $ 327.0 (8.9) 250.7 231.9 11.0 Investment expenses..... $ 2463) $ 231.2 _(0.Z) Net investment income... These statements do not conform to GAAP in all respects These statements are unaudited 49
[第 52 页]
[PAGE 52]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
制造业、出版与零售业务
接下来的一页列示了伯克希尔制造业、出版与零售业务的合并财务报表——该报表未经审计,也并未完全按公认会计原则调整。本次合并呈报中所涵盖的业务,包括伯克希尔的六个非保险“可报告业务板块”,以及以下业务:
| 业务实体 | 业务活动/产品/服务 |
|---|---|
| Adalet | 导管配件、防爆配件、接线盒 |
| Borsheim's | 高档珠宝零售 |
| 蓝筹印花 | 印花 |
| Carefree | 卷式遮阳篷、其他房车配件 |
| Campbell Hausfeld | 空压机及配件、喷涂系统 |
| Halex | 锌合金和铝合金压铸配件 |
| France | 电器控制件、点火与信号变压器 |
| Meriam | 压力和流量测量设备 |
| KEW Products | 汽车化合物 |
| 新美电器 | 电气设备制造商 |
| Northland | 分马力电机 |
| Precision | 钢材服务中心 |
| Powerwinch | 船用绞车、锚机 |
| Scot Labs | 清洁与维护化学品 |
| Quikut | 各类刀具 |
| Stahl | 卡车定制钢制车身和工具箱 |
| 韦恩家用设备 | 炉用燃烧器;污水泵、实用泵及排污泵 |
| Western Enterprises | 压缩气体接头与调节阀 |
| Western Plastics | 模塑塑料部件 |
六个非保险“可报告业务板块”的详细描述如下。
报纸 ——《布法罗新闻》,伯克希尔的一个部门,每周出版七天,周日一个版本、工作日每天各一个版本。它是纽约州北部一个十县发行区域内唯一每日出版的都市日报,该区域是全美 50 大主要市场区域之一。
制服制造与分销 —— 伯克希尔于 1986 年年中获得了 Fechheimers 公司 85% 的权益。Fechheimers 在肯塔基州、俄亥俄州、田纳西州和得克萨斯州的工厂生产产品,并通过 42 个公司自有零售分销中心和独立经销商进行销售,这些经销商与公司共同覆盖全美 200 多个主要都市区域。
家用清洁系统 —— 伯克希尔这一业务板块的主要代表是 Kirby 清洁系统及其产品,公司将其销售给约 700 个工厂分销商,这些分销商再转售给一个由区域分销商和经销商组成的网络。独立经销商通过上门演示直接向消费者销售。Douglas Products 公司生产手持式电动和无线吸尘器等特种吸尘器,通过百货商店、商品目录展销厅和五金店进行分销。克利夫兰木制品公司是一家真空吸尘器刷毛制造商,其相关数据也在此板块中列报。
家居用品零售 —— 内布拉斯加家具城在位于内布拉斯加州奥马哈的一个面积非常大(超过 20 万平方英尺)的零售卖场和大型仓储设施中经营家居用品零售业务。它服务的贸易区域以奥马哈为中心半径约 300 英里。伯克希尔拥有该业务 80% 的权益;主要管理层持有 20%。
糖果 —— 喜诗在加利福尼亚州的两间大型厨房中,以品质为核心,生产盒装巧克力和其他糖果产品。喜诗通过其位于 12 个西部及中西部州(包括夏威夷)的自有零售店(数量超过 200 家)分销其糖果。另外,相当规模的糖果业务也通过数量随季节调整的团购订单配送中心,面向全国进行直接发货。
百科全书、其他参考资料 —— 世界图书为家庭、学校和图书馆出版教育产品。其主要产品包括:全球销量最高的百科全书《世界图书百科全书》;为幼儿提供的资料库《童书》;以及为学龄前儿童设计的入学准备课程《早期学习世界》。在美国和加拿大,这些产品和其他教育材料由一支约 3.5 万人的庞大直销队伍进行销售。新版权版《世界图书》每年出版一次。《世界图书年鉴》是为早期版本用户提供的年度大事记更新,其他产品则通过直邮和电话营销销售。一个国际部门在澳大利亚、不列颠群岛以及全球其他关键市场分销这些产品和专门制作的同类产品。
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. MANUFACTURING, PUBLISHING AND RETAILING BUSINESSES not fully adjusted to conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles - are presented on the following page. The Combined financial statements of Berkshire's Manufacturing, Publishing and Retailing businesses - unaudited and operations whose data have been combined in these presentations include Berkshire's six non-insurance "reportable business segments," as well as the following: Operation Activity/product/service Adalet...... Conduit fittings, explosion proof fittings, junction boxes Borsheim's....... Blue Chip Stamps.. Retailing of fine jewelry Trading stamps Carefree .. Campbell Hausfeld Roll-up awnings, other RV accessories Air compressors and accessories, painting systems Halex..... France .. Zinc and aluminum die cast fittings Appliance controls, ignition and sign transformers Meriam....... KEW Products Automotive compounds New America Electric Pressure and flow measurement devices Northland... Fractional horsepower motors Manufacturer of electrical equipment Precision. Powerwinch Steel service center Boat winches, windlasses Scot Labs Quikut ... Cleaning and maintenance chemicals Varieties of cutlery Stahl .... Wayne Home Equipment Custom steel services bodies and tool boxes for trucks Western Enterprises Compressed gas fittings and regulators Furnace burners; sump, utility and sewage pumps Western Plastics... Molded plastic components The six non-insurance "reportable business segments" are more fully described below. It is the only metropolitan newspaper published daily within a ten county upstate New York distribution area that comprises Newspaper - The Buffalo News, a division of Berkshire, publishes a Sunday edition and seven editions each weekday. one of the nation's 50 largest primary market areas. Fechheimers manufactures its products at plants in Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas, for marketing through forty- Uniform Manufacturing and Distribution - Berkshire acquired its 85% ownership interest of Fechheimers in mid-1986. two company-owned retail distribution centers and by independent dealers who together serve more than 200 of the country's major metropolitan areas. and products, sold to approximately 700 factory distributors who in turn sell them to a network of area distributors and Home Cleaning Systems — This segment of Berkshire's business is principally represented by Kirby cleaning systems dealers. Independent dealers employ in-the-home demonstrations for direct resale to consumers. Douglas Products department stores, catalogue showrooms and hardware stores. Data with respect to Cleveland Wood Products Company, Company manufactures specialty vacuum cleaners such as hand-held electric and cordless units distributed through a manufacturer of vacuum cleaner brushes, is also reported within this segment. a very large - over 200,000 square feet - retail outlet and sizable warehouse facilities in Omaha, Nebraska. It serves a Retailing of Home Furnishings - The Nebraska Furniture Mart operates a home furnishing retail business from trade area with a radius around Omaha of approximately 300 miles. Berkshire owns 80% of this business; key managers own 20%. large kitchens in California. See's distributes its candies through its own retail stores - over 200 in number - located Candy - See's produces boxed chocolates and other confectionery products with an emphasis on quality in two in 12 western and midwestern states, including Hawaii. A meaningful volume of candy business is also recorded for direct shipments made nationwide from a seasonally-varying number of quantity order distribution centers. libraries. Its chief products include: The World Book Encyclopedia, the world's largest-selling encyclopedia; Childcraft, Encyclopedias, Other Reference Materials — World Book publishes educational products for homes, schools, and other educational material are marketed in the United States and Canada by a large direct-selling force of some 35,000 a resource library for young children; and Early World of Learning, a readiness program for preschoolers. These and publication for owners of earlier editions, and other products are sold by direct mail and telemarketing. An international members. A newly copyrighted edition of World Book is published each year. The World Book Year Book, an updating the world. group distributes these and other specially created products in Australia, the British Isles, and other key markets around 50
[第 53 页]
[PAGE 53]
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
伯克希尔·哈撒韦
制造业、出版和零售业务
(单位:百万美元)
资产负债表
12 月 31 日
资产
1990
1989
现金及现金等价物
存货
应收账款
$
184.0
28.9
$
25.2
不动产与设备
174.1
175.6
其他
149.1
165.7
19.7
141.9
负债
$ 555.8
$ 526.8
18.4
所得税
应付账款、应计费用及其他
$ 198.0
定期债务及其他借款
38.4
$ 214.2
36.1
37.9
权益
272.5
290.1
38.0
伯克希尔股东权益
少数股东权益
255.1
28.2
25.2
$ 555.8
283.3
211.5
$ 526.8
236.7
利润表
(单位:百万美元)
1990
收入:
1989
1988
销售和服务收入
利息收入
$1,580.1
6.7
$1,526.4
8.4
$1,407.6
杂项收入
1,588.2
1.4
1,537.4
2.6
6.7
1,416.8
2.5
成本和费用:
已售产品和服务的成本
865.6
债务利息
销售、一般及管理费用
499.3
487.7
838.7
747.8
1,371.4
6.5
1,332.6
6.2
461.8
4.9
所得税前经营利润
所得税费用
216.8
83.9
204.8
1,214.5
132.9
125.9
78.9
76.2
202.3
少数股东权益
5.4
5.0
126.1
净利润
$ 127.5
$ 120.9
$ 121.7
4.4
因伯克希尔业务收购产生的购买价格会计调整(包括商誉)未反映在这些报表中,而是在第 53 页的非经营活动报表中反映。
这些报表并非在所有方面符合公认会计准则
这些报表未经审计
51
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. MANUFACTURING, PUBLISHING and RETAILING BUSINESSES (dollars in millions) Balance Sheets December 31, Assets 1990 1989 Cash and cash equivalents Inventories... Accounts receivable. $ 184.0 28.9 $ 25.2 Properties and equipment 174.1 175.6 Other. 149.1 165.7 19.7 141.9 Liabilities $ 555.8 $ 526.8 18.4 Income taxes. Accounts payable, accruals and other $ 198.0 Term debt and other borrowings 38.4 $ 214.2 36.1 37.9 Equity 272.5 290.1 38.0 Berkshire shareholders' Minority shareholders'. 255.1 28.2 25.2 $ 555.8 283.3 211.5 $ 526.8 236.7 Statements of Earnings (dollars in millions) 1990 Revenues: 1989 1988 Sales and service revenues Interest income.. $1,580.1 6.7 $1,526.4 8.4 $1,407.6 Sundry income 1,588.2 1.4 1,537.4 2.6 6.7 1,416.8 2.5 Costs and expenses: Costs of products and services sold... 865.6 Interest on debt Selling, general and administrative. 499.3 487.7 838.7 747.8 1,371.4 6.5 1,332.6 6.2 461.8 4.9 Earnings from operations before income taxes Income tax expense 216.8 83.9 204.8 1,214.5 132.9 125.9 78.9 76.2 202.3 Minority interest 5.4 5.0 126.1 Net earnings $ 127.5 $ 120.9 $ 121.7 4.4 reflected in these statements, but instead are reflected in the statements of non-operating activities at page 53. Purchase price accounting adjustments, including goodwill, arising from Berkshire's business acquisitions are not These statements do not conform to GAAP in all respects These statements are unaudited - 51
[第 54 页]
[PAGE 54]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
金融类业务
互助储蓄贷款协会及其子公司和斯科特-费泽金融集团及其子公司构成了伯克希尔的金融类业务。
(单位:百万美元)
资产负债表
1990 年 1989 年
12 月 31 日 12 月 31 日
资产
投资成本:
现金及现金等价物 $ 72.9 $ 40.0
固定到期债券:
可赎回优先股 17.5 17.0
17.5 30.5
权益类证券:
不可赎回优先股
FHLMC 普通股 71.7 36.8
36.8 71.7
分期付款及其他应收款
有抵押贷款应收款 (1) 169.7 131.1
153.8 21.2
11.1 173.2
其他
预付所得税 17.2 12.9
$ 549.0 $ 553.6
负债
应付账款、应计费用及其他 $ 286.4 $ 293.1
储蓄账户 22.2 157.1
1.3 18.4
所得税 159.6 1.5
定期债务及其他借款 467.0 472.6
权益
少数股东权益 71.9 71.3
10.1 9.7
伯克希尔股东权益 82.0 81.0
$ 553.6 $ 549.0
损益表
(单位:百万美元)
1990 年 1989 年 1988 年
收入:
贷款及融资应收款的利息和手续费 $ 51.9 $ 49.4 $ 50.2
投资证券的利息和股利 19.2 18.3 20.9
杂项收入 70.5 68.9 71.7
0.3 0.3 0.6
费用:
储蓄账户利息 22.0 21.5 20.8
债务利息 13.9 14.1 14.3
一般及行政费用 57.0 56.2 58.2
20.7 20.8 23.3
税前经营利润 13.5 12.7 13.5
所得税费用 1.7 1.2 2.0
少数股东权益 11.5 11.5 11.5
净利润 $ 11.8 0.8 $ 10.7
0.8 $ 10.5
1.0
(1) 包括住房抵押贷款支持证券:1990 年 2370 万美元,1989 年 3430 万美元。
这些报表不完全符合公认会计原则的要求
这些报表未经审计
52
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. FINANCE-TYPE BUSINESSES Mutual Savings and Loan Association and its subsidiary and Scott Fetzer Financial Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries make up Berkshire's finance-type operations. (dollars in millions) Balance Sheets 1990 December 31, 1989 Assets Investments at cost: Cash and cash equivalents $ 72.9 $ 40.0 Fixed maturities: Redeemable preferred stocks 17.5 17.0 17.5 30.5 Equity securities: Nonredeemable preferred stocks FHLMC common stock 71.7 36.8 36.8 71.7 Installment and other receivables Collateralized loans receivable (1) 169.7 131.1 153.8 21.2 11.1 173.2 Other. Prepaid income taxes 17.2 12.9 $ 549.0 $ 553.6 Liabilities Accounts payable, accruals and other Savings accounts $ 286.4 22.2 $ 293.1 157.1 1.3 18.4 Income taxes. 159.6 1.5 Term debt and other borrowings. 467.0 472.6 Equity Minority shareholders 71.9 10.1 71.3 9.7 Berkshire shareholders' 82.0 $ 553.6 81.0 $ 549.0 Statements of Earnings (dollars in millions) 1990 1989 1988 Revenues: Interest and fees on loans and financed receivables... Interest and dividends on investment securities. $ 51.9 $ 49.4 19.2 $ 50.2 18.3 20.9 Sundry income 70.5 0.3 68.9 0.3 71.7 0.6 Expenses: Interest on savings accounts 22.0 13.9 21.5 14.1 20.8 Interest on debt... 14.3 General and administrative. 57.0 20.7 20.8 23.3 56.2 58.2 Earnings from operations before income taxes 13.5 12.7 13.5 Income tax expense 1.7 11.5 1.2 11.5 2.0 Minority interest. 11.8 Net earnings. $ 11.0 0.8 $ 10.7 0.8 $ 10.5 1.0 (1) Includes mortgage-backed securities of $23.7, 1990 and $34.3, 1989. These statements do not conform to GAAP in all respects These statements are unaudited 52
[第 55 页]
[PAGE 55]
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
非营业活动
这些报表反映了合并财务报表中的资产、负债、股东权益、收入和支出数值,这些数值按账面价值列示(见未审计报告相关页),未经审计,且未完全遵循公认会计原则。
净资产报表
(百万美元)
12 月 31 日
资产
1990 年
1989 年
投资:
现金及现金等价物…………
29.9 美元
96.0 美元
固定期限证券
债券:
RJR 纳贝斯克
可赎回优先股
其他
252.6
81.0
74.3
74.8
11.5
81.0
0.2
财产账户调整 (1)
普通股
20.1
预付所得税
未摊销商誉 (1)
136.5
73.6
140.5
79.5
其他
32.8
8.0
64.7
9.0
资产合计
708.8 美元
557.2 美元
负债
所得税
应付账款、应计费用及其他
33.8 美元
1,046.2
(7.8) 美元
(24.7)
31.6
定期债务及其他借款
1,072.2
816.8
809.9
权益
伯克希尔股东权益
少数股东权益
3,784
15.0
(272.3)
12.7
负债及权益合计
(363.4) 美元
708.8 美元
(259.6) 美元
557.2 美元
损益表
(百万美元)
1990 年
1989 年
1988 年
收入:
利息和股息收入
杂项收入
41.1 美元
61.3
20.2 美元
9.3
7.2 美元
28.5
7.4
收入合计
102.5
36.7
35.9
支出:
股东指定捐赠
公司行政管理
4.1
5.8
3.4
3.4
5.9
5.0
3.8
3.5
其他成本和费用
债务利息
财产账户调整 (1)
商誉摊销 (1)
6.0
37.3
6.0
2.7
30.7
6.9
2.8
支出合计
91.3
56.9
49.6
所得税抵免
税前费用超额
(30.0)
(22.4)
7.6
(40.4)
(30.6)
9.8
(13.7)
(12.5)
1.2
净亏损
少数股东损益
1.1
0.6
归属于伯克希尔的净亏损
(13.6) 美元
1.1 美元
(1)“财产账户调整”和商誉产生于业务收购的会计处理。
这些报表并未完全遵循公认会计原则
这些报表未经审计
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. NON-OPERATING ACTIVITIES These statements reflect the consolidated financial stalement values for assets, liabilities, shareholders' equity, revenue and expenses that were at asianed any Bed page (pagop to saroup in the unaudied, and not fly CAP: adius. Statements of Net Assets (dollars in millions) December 31 Assets 1990 1989 Investments: Cash and cash equivalents...... $ 29.9 $ 96.0 Fixed maturities Bonds: RJR Nabisco. Redeemable preferred stocks Other. 252.6 81.0 74.3 74.8 11.5 81.0 0.2 Property account adjustments (1) Common stocks. 20.1 Prepaid income taxes. Unamortized goodwill (1) 136.5 73.6 140.5 79.5 Other. 32.8 8.0 64.7 9.0 $ Liabilities 708.8 $ 557.2 Income taxes Accounts payable, accruals and other $ 33.8 1,046.2 (7.8) $ (24.7) 31.6 Term debt and other borrowings 1,072.2 816.8 809.9 Equity Berkshire shareholders' Minority shareholders' 3784) 15.0 (272.3) 12.7 $ (363.4) 708.8 $ (259.6) 557.2 Statements of Earnings (dollars in millions) 1990 1989 1988 Revenues: Interest and dividend income $ Sundry income 41.1 61.3 20.2 $ .9.3 7.2 $ 28.5 7.4 16.5 35.9 Expenses: Shareholder designated contributions Corporate administration.. 4.1 5.8 3.4 3.4 5.9 5.0 3.8 3.5 Other costs and expenses Interest on debt.. Property account adjustments (1) Amortization of goodwill (1).... 6.0 37.3 6.0 2.7 30.7 6.9 28 91.3 56.9 0.9 49.6 0,5 Income tax credit... Excess of expenses before income taxes (30.0) (22.4) 7.6 (40.4) (30.6) 9.8 (13.7) (12.5) 1.2 Net loss Minority interest 1.1 0.6 (13.6) 1.1 (1) "Property account adjustments" and goodwill arose in accounting for business acquisitions. These statements do not conform to GAAP in all respects These statements are unaudited 53
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
股东指定捐赠计划
1981 年 10 月 14 日,董事长致函股东*,解释了该计划。该信函的部分内容如下:
过去十年中,本公司每年都开展了这一企业捐赠计划。该计划在多数年份,应该能为您所选择的慈善机构带来可观的利益。
“1981 年 9 月 30 日,伯克希尔收到了美国财政部的税务裁定,该裁定规定,每位伯克希尔股东——按其持股比例——将能够指定本公司慈善捐款的受赠对象。您指定慈善机构:伯克希尔负责开具支票。该裁定指出,股东作出此类指定不会产生任何个人税务后果。
“因此,我们约 1500 位股东现在可以行使一项特权,这项特权虽然在股权集中的企业中由所有者常规行使,但在股权较为分散的企业中,几乎完全由管理层掌控。
“在一家股权分散的公司里,高管通常全权安排所有慈善捐赠,股东完全没有发言权,这些捐赠主要分为两类:
(1)被认为能为公司带来与捐赠成本大致相当的直接利益的捐赠;
(2)被认为能通过各种难以衡量、反馈效应长期滞后的情况,间接为公司带来利益的捐赠。
“过去,我和其他伯克希尔高管安排了第一类中的全部慈善捐赠。但是,这类捐赠的总金额一直很低,而且未来很可能仍将很低,因为能够证明给伯克希尔带来大致相当的直接利益的捐赠并不多。
“在第二类捐赠方面,伯克希尔以往几乎没有慈善捐赠,因为我对常规的企业做法感到不安,但又想不出更好的做法可以替代。让我对常规企业做法感到困扰的是,捐赠的决策往往更多的是基于谁在索要以及同行的反应,而不是基于对受赠方活动的客观评估。惯性思维往往压倒了理性。
“一个常见的结果是,用股东的钱来实现高管的慈善偏好。通常这里还存在一个额外的矛盾:许多企业高管一方面谴责政府调配纳税人的税款,另一方面却热情地拥抱自己调配股东资金的做法。
“对于伯克希尔,一种不同的模式似乎更合适。正如我不希望您用我的银行账户,按照您个人的判断为您选择的慈善机构开支票一样,我也认为,用您公司的‘银行账户’,为我选择的慈善机构开支票是不合适的。您的慈善偏好和我的同样好,而且,对您、对我而言,可用于培养我们慈善兴趣的资金,主要都在我们自己手中,而非公司层面。
“在这种情况下,我认为伯克希尔应该更效仿股权集中的公司,而不是大型上市公司。如果您和我各自持有一家公司 50% 的股份,我们的慈善决策就很简单了。与公司运营直接相关的慈善机构,对我们可用的慈善资金拥有优先主张权。在进行‘与运营相关’的捐赠之后,任何剩余的资金,都将按照与我们各自持股比例大致相当的基础,分配给我们两人各自关注的慈善领域。如果我们公司的经理提出一些建议,我们会认真倾听——但最终决定权在我们手中。尽管我们是公司形式,但在慈善捐赠这件事上,我们多半会像合伙关系一样行事。
*版权所有 © 1981 沃伦·E·巴菲特
保留所有权利
54
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. SHAREHOLDER-DESIGNATED CONTRIBUTIONS October 14, 1981, the Chairman sent to the shareholders a letter* explaining the program. Portions of that The Company has conducted this program of corporate giving during each of the past ten years. On that, in most years, should produce a significant benefit for charities of your choice. "On September 30, 1981 Berkshire received a tax ruling from the U.S. Treasury Department hat he owns - will be able to designate recipients of charitable contributions by our company. You'l "Fach Berkshire shareholder - on a basis proportional to the number of shares of Berkshire ame the charity: Berkshire will write the check. The ruling states that there will be no persona tax consequences to our shareholders from making such designations. exercised by the owners in closely-held businesses, is almost exclusively exercised by the managers "Thus, our approximately 1500 owners now can exercise a perquisite that, although routinely in more widely-held businesses. no input at all from shareholders, in two main categories: "In a widely-held corporation the executives ordinarily arrange all charitable donations, with (1) Donations considered to benefit the corporation directly in an amount (2) Donations considered to benefit the corporation indirectly through hard- roughly commensurate with the cost of the donation; and to-measure, long-delayed feedback effects of various kinds. all charitable donations in the first category. However, the aggregate level of giving in such category "I and other Berkshire executives have arranged in the past, as we will arrange in the future, has been quite low, and very likely will remain quite low, because not many gifts can be shown to produce roughly commensurate direct benefits to Berkshire. comfortable with ordinary corporate practice and had no better practice to substitute. What bothers "In the second category, Berkshire's charitable gifts have been virtually nil, because I am not the asking and how corporate peers are responding than on an objective evaluation of the donee's me about ordinary corporate practice is the way gifts tend to be made based more on who does activities. Conventionality often overpowers rationality. "A common result is the use of the stockholder's money to implement the charitable inclinations Frequently there is an added incongruity; many corporate managers deplore governmental allocation of the taxpayer's dollar but embrace enthusiastically their own allocation of the shareholder's dollar. your personal judgments by writing checks on my bank account for charities of your choice, I feel "For Berkshire, a different model seems appropriate. Just as I wouldn't want you to implement it inappropriate to write checks on your corporate "bank account" for charities of my choice. Your charitable interests in a tax-deductible manner reside largely at the corporate level rather than in charitable preferences are as good as mine and, for both you and me, funds available to foster our own hands. not larger public companies. If you and I each own 50% of a corporation, our charitable decision 'Under such circumstances, I believe Berkshire should imitate more closely-held companies, have first claim on our available charitable funds. Any balance available after the "operations-related" making would be simple. Charities very directly related to the operations of the business would proportional to our ownership interest. If the manager of our company had some suggestions, we contributions would be divided among various charitable interests of the two of us, on a basis roughly aspect of the business we probably would behave as if we were a partnership. would listen carefully - but the final decision would be ours. Despite our corporate form, in this *Copyright © 1981 By Warren E. Buffett All Rights Reserved 54
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我们通过一家规模庞大、股权相当分散的公司来运作。我们的税务裁定将允许这种“在所有者指导下的慈善捐赠”计划得以实施……“只要可行,我坚信应该保持这样一种合伙人心态,即使在这种领域也要体现出合伙精神……”“让我感到高兴的是,伯克希尔的捐赠可以变成由所有者主导。但讽刺的是——而且可以理解的是——越来越多的大型企业设有慈善捐赠政策,其中许多甚至匹配董事的捐赠,但据我所知,没有一家公司有匹配所有者捐赠的计划。我说‘可以理解’,是因为许多大公司的股票是由那些缺乏长期所有者视角的机构以‘旋转门’方式持有的……”“我们自己的股东是另一类人。正如我在 1979 年年报中提到的,每年年底,超过 98% 的股份都由年初就在册的股东持有。这种对企业的长期承诺反映了一种所有者心态,而作为你们的管理者,我打算以一切可行方式来认可这种心态。指定捐赠政策就是这种意图的一个体现。”
自该计划启动以来,通过该计划进行的捐赠历史情况如下:
| 年份 | 每股指定金额 | 参与股份百分比 | 参与的有效*股份数 | 捐赠金额 | 指定慈善机构数量 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | $1 | 95.6% | 675 | $ 890,948 | 1,783,655 |
| 1982 | $2 | 96.4% | 704 | $3,179,049 | 1,353 |
| 1983 | $3 | 95.8% | 1,519 | $3,066,501 | 3,996,820 |
| 1984 | $3 | 97.2% | 1,724 | $4,006,260 | 3,996,820 |
| 1985 | $4 | 96.8% | 1,934 | $4,965,665 | 3,996,820 |
| 1986 | $4 | 97.1% | 2,050 | $4,937,574 | 5,867,254 |
| 1987 | $5 | 97.4% | 2,319 | $5,823,672 | 2,550 |
| 1988 | $5 | 96.9% | 2,600 | $5,823,672 | 2,550 |
| 1989 | $6 | 97.2% | — | — | — |
| 1990 | $6 | 97.3% | — | — | — |
*以“行号名义”持有的股份不具备参与资格。
除了以上列出的由股东指定捐赠的总额外,伯克希尔及其子公司还根据其业务经营经理们在当地层面的决策进行了一些捐赠。
如果某一年(如果有的话)的捐赠会导致不达标或无法抵扣税款,则该计划可能不会在该年实施。在其他年份,伯克希尔计划告知股东每股可指定的捐赠金额,并随通知附上一份回执表格,供股东回复其指定。如果 1991 年实施该计划,通知将于 1991 年 9 月 15 日左右邮寄给截至 8 月 31 日营业结束时登记在册的股东,股东须在 11 月 15 日前回复。
股东应注意,以“行号名义”持有的股份不具备参与该计划的资格。要获得资格,股份必须以所有者个人姓名、或拥有该股份的信托、公司、合伙企业或遗产的姓名在 8 月 31 日登记在册。
we operate through a large, fairly widely-held corporation. Our Treasury ruling will allow such "Wherever feasible, I believe in maintaining such a partnership frame of mind, even though partnership-like behavior in this area... understandable, that a large and growing number of major corporations have charitable policies "I am pleased that Berkshire donations can become owner-directed. It is ironic, but
- many even match gifts made by directors) but none, to my knowledge, has a plan matching charitable
pursuant to which they will match gifts made by their employees (and - brace yourself for this one gifts by owners. I say "understandable" because much of the stock of many large corporations is that lack a long-term owner's perspective... owned on a "revolving door" basis by institutions that have short-term investment horizons, and "Our own shareholders are a different breed. As I mentioned in the 1979 annual report, at the beginning of the year. This long-term commitment to the business reflects an owner mentality which, end of each year more than 98% of our shares are owned by people who were shareholders at the is an example of that intent." as your manager, I intend to acknowledge in all feasible ways. The designated contributions policy ** * The history of contributions made pursuant to this program since its inception follows: Specified Amount Eligible* Shares Percent of Year per share Participating Contributed Amount Charities No. of 1981 1982 $1 $2 95.6% 1983 $3 96.4% 95.8% $1,783,655 $ 890,948 675 $3,179,049 $3,066,501 1,353 704 1985 1984 $4 $3 96.8% 97.2% $3,996,820 $4,006,260 1,724 1,519 1986 1987 $4 $5 97.1% 1988 1989 $6 $5 96.9% 97.4% 97.2% $4,965,665 $4,937,574 1,934 2,050 1990 $6 97.3% $5,867,254 2,319 $5,823,672 2,550
- Shares registered in street name are not eligible to participate.
2,600 In addition to the shareholder-designated contributions summarized above, Berkshire and its subsidiaries have made certain contributions pursuant to local level decisions of operating managers of the businesses.
substandard or no tax deductions. In other years Berkshire expects to inform shareholders of the amount The program may not be conducted in the occasional year, if any, when the contributions would produce respond with their designations. If the program is conducted in 1991, the notice will be mailed on or about per share that may be designated, and a reply form will accompany the notice allowing shareholders to 31, 1991, and shareholders will be given until November 15 to respond. September 15 to shareholders of record reflected in our Registrar's records as of the close of business August program. To qualify, shares must be registered on August 31 in the owner's individual name(s) or the name Shareholders should note the fact that shares held in street name are not eligible to participate in the of an owning trust, corporation, partnership or estate, as applicable. 55
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Wesco 金融公司 1990 年年报中包含了以下致 Wesco 股东的信函*,由公司董事长撰写。
WESCO 金融公司
致股东的信
致各位股东:
Wesco 有三个主要子公司:位于帕萨迪纳的 Mutual Savings、Wesco-Financial Insurance 公司(总部在奥马哈,目前主要从事再保险业务)以及 Precision Steel 公司(总部在芝加哥,从事钢材仓储和特种金属制品业务)。过去两年的合并净利润明细如下(除每股数据外,单位均为千美元):
| 截至 12 月 31 日,1990 年 | 截至 12 月 31 日,1989 年 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 金额 | 每股 | 金额 | 每股 | |
| "常规"净经营利润: | ||||
| Mutual Savings | $4,099 | $ .58 | $4,191 | $ .59 |
| Wesco-Financial Insurance 业务 | 14,924 | 2.10 | 14,276 | 2.00 |
| Precision Steel 业务 | 1,985 | .28 | 2,769 | .39 |
| 所有其他"常规"净经营利润(2) | 4,030 | .56 | 3,178 | .45 |
| Wesco 合并净利润 | 25,038 | 3.52 | 24,414 | 3.43 |
| 有价证券出售净收益 | 391 | .05 | 5,920 | .83 |
| Wesco 合并净利润(含非经常项目) | $25,429 | $3.57 | $30,334 | $4.26 |
(1) 所有数字均为税后净值。
这份补充性的利润分解与经审计的财务报表中使用的标准会计惯例略有不同。之所以提供这份分解,是因为我们认为它对股东有用。
Mutual Savings 1990 年"常规"净经营利润为 409.9 万美元,几乎与上年 419.1 万美元的数字持平。
和往常一样,这些"常规利润"数字来自一家不寻常的储蓄和贷款协会。Mutual Savings 在 1989 年和 1990 年底的单独资产负债表在本年报末尾列出。它们显示:(1) 储蓄账户总额从上年同期的 2.93 亿美元降至 2.86 亿美元;(2) 股东权益与储蓄账户负债的比率非常高(接近任何成熟美国储蓄和贷款协会的最高水平);(3) 相当一部分储蓄账户负债被现金等价物和有价证券抵消;以及 (4) 贷款组合(主要是房地产抵押贷款)在 1990 年底约为 1.31 亿美元,较 1989 年底的 1.54 亿美元有所下降。
如随附财务报表附注 9 所指出的,Wesco 在 Mutual Savings 中的股权账面价值高估了按账面价值出售或清算后可实现的税后金额。如果按账面价值清算 Mutual Savings 股东权益中被视为坏账准备金的 4700 万美元部分,Wesco 在缴纳所得税后仅能获得约 3080 万美元。
- 芒格先生信函中的少数几个小部分已被略去:当伯克希尔的报告超过 72 页时,我们在装订中会遇到问题。由于这一限制,要么查理的信,要么我的信必须被删减,我决定掷硬币决定。结果,结果证明,我最终决定掷了九次硬币。 - W. E. B.
The 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation included the following letter* to Wesco stockholders from the Chairman of the Company. WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS To Our Shareholders: ompany, headquartered in Omaha and currently engaged principally in the reinsurance business, an Wesco has three major subsidiaries, Mutual Savings, in Pasadena, Wesco-Financial Insurance products businesses. Consolidated net income for the two years just ended breaks down as follows (in recision Steel, headquartered in Chicago and engaged in the steel warehousing and specialty met 000s except for per-share amounts) ': Year Ended December 31, 1990 December 31, 1989 Wesco Per "Normal" net operating income of: Amount Amount Share Mutual Savings $4,099 $ .58 Wesco-Financial Insurance business. $ 4,191 14,924 2.10 14,276 $ .59 2.00 Precision Steel's businesses .. All other "normal" net operating income(2) ••• 1,985 .28 2,769 .39 25,038 4,030 3.52 .56 24,414 3,178 3.43 .45 Wesco consolidated net income Net gains on sales of marketable securities •.. 391 .05 $3.57 5,920 $25,429 $30,334 .83 $4.26 (1) All figures are net of income taxes. statements which follow standard accounting convention. The supplementary breakdown is furnished This supplementary breakdown of earnings differs somewhat from that used in audited financial because it is considered useful to shareholders. Mutual Savings $4,191,000 figure the previous year. Mutual Savings' "normal" net operating income of $4,099,000 in 1990 was almost equal to the As usual, these "normal-income" figures come from an abnormal savings and loan association. annual report. They show (1) total savings accounts declining to $286 million from $293 million the year Separate balance sheets of Mutual Savings at yearend 1989 and 1990 are set forth at the end of this any mature U.S. savings and loan association), (3) a substantial portion of savings account liabilities before, (2) a very high ratio of shareholders' equity to savings account liabilities (near the highest for mortgages) of about $131 million at the end of 1990, down moderately from $154 million at the end of offset by cash equivalents and marketable securities, and (4) a loan portfolio (mostly real estate equity in Mutual Savings overstates the amount realizable, after taxes, from sale or liquidation at book As pointed out in Note 9 to the accompanying financial statements, the book value of Wesco's value of the $47 million portion of Mutual Savings' shareholders equity which is considered bad debt value. Wesco would get only about $30.8 million, after paying income taxes, from the liquidation at book
- A few small sections of Mr. Munger's letter have been excluded: When Berkshire's report exceeds 72 pages, we have
flip was appropriate. In fact - as things turned out - I finally decided nine flips were appropriate. - W. E.B. problems in binding it. Because of this limitation, either Charlie's letter or mine had to be cut and I decided a coin 56
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
用于所得税准备金。互助储蓄公司 1990 年赚得的 410 万美元,相对于我们努力维持的 4700 万美元股东权益,回报(8.7%)不足,但这 410 万美元,相对于按账面价值清算后的税后收益 3080 万美元,确实算得上体面(13.3%)。
1990 年末的贷款组合,虽然几乎没有违约损失风险,但其平均利率仅为 9.20%,可能是美国储蓄与贷款机构中最低的,与 1989 年末的 9.23% 大致相当。由于贷款组合几乎全部由短期工具或利率随市场自动调整的工具构成,贷款组合中的未实现折旧远低于互助储蓄公司有息证券和公用事业优先股的未实现增值。1990 年 12 月 31 日,该增值约为 1100 万美元。
虽然互助储蓄公司支付的储蓄平均利率与收取的贷款平均利率之间的“利差”仍然太低,无法提供可观的利润,但去年这一“利差”再次改善。“利差”改善是因为储蓄利率下降了。此外,近年来,“利差”不足的不利影响已被各种税收优惠投资(主要是优先股和市政债券)的效果所抵消。这种针对贷款利率利差不足的税收优惠解决方案的负面风险在于:如果整体利率水平大幅上升,优先股和市政债券(因其收益固定且期限较长)的价值将会下跌,无法提供足够收入来覆盖互助储蓄公司的利息和其他成本。考虑到这一风险,互助储蓄公司的总投资额相对于其净资产规模一直保持保守。
1989 年颁布的、普遍简称为“FIRREA”的新联邦立法,正导致互助储蓄公司逐步减持其税收优惠资产中的优先股部分(1990 年 12 月 31 日成本为 5440 万美元)。持有优先股此前有助于维持盈利能力,因为其税收等价收益率非常高(1990 年 12 月 31 日约为 15%)。更糟糕的是,我们被迫处置优质资产,近期所得税法的变化使得互助储蓄公司直接持有的市政债券(1990 年 12 月 31 日成本为 1690 万美元)到期后无法替换。市政债券也有很高的税收等价收益率(1990 年 12 月 31 日约为 17.5%)。到 1994 年中期,可能更早,我们预计税收优惠投资为互助储蓄公司带来的几乎所有好处都将消失。
互助储蓄公司仍然是旧联邦监管标准(该标准于 1991 年 6 月 30 日结束)下的“合格储蓄贷款机构”,该标准要求 60% 的资产属于各种住房相关类别。它不久将根据需要改变其资产组合,以遵守 FIRREA 施加的新标准,该标准要求 70% 的资产保持在一个更严格的住房相关资产清单中。
在美国金融机构法律进一步修订之前,互助储蓄公司预计将在以下五个类别中保持其所需的 70% 的住房相关资产:
(1)在出售位于加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉的止赎海滨物业过程中发放的抵押贷款;
(2)直接发放的、预期期限较短的固定利率住房抵押贷款;
(3)以抵押贷款支持证券形式在公开市场购买的、间接发放的、预期期限较短的固定利率住房抵押贷款;
(4)少量直接发放的、利率随市场波动最高可达 25% 的长期浮动利率住房抵押贷款;
(5)大量直接发放的、仅提供给低收入至中等收入人群(其中许多是少数族裔)的长期固定利率住房抵押贷款。这些人信用良好,居住在互助储蓄公司办公室 7 英里范围内,并以其房屋价值的至少 20% 作为贷款本金支持,所允许的最高抵押贷款金额约为 19.1 万美元。
我们将努力扩大第(5)类资产,涵盖为当地低收入至中等收入人群提供的小额、长期、固定利率住房抵押贷款。事实上,预计此类贷款将占所有新直接发放抵押贷款的大多数。我们预计不收取任何贷款费用,并收取略低于市场的利率。因此,每一笔新贷款都会立即造成经济损失,甚至在我们按计划出售贷款之前,就会冲击我们的盈利报表。这些贷款将被出售。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation reserves for income tax purposes. The $4.1 million Mutual Savings earned in 1990 is an inadequate return (8.7%) on the $47 million amount at which we try to maintain shareholders' equity, but this same $4.1 million is a respectable return (13.3%) on the $30.8 million which would be the after-tax proceeds of liquidation at book value. an average interest rate of only 9.20%, probably near the lowest among U.S. savings and loan The loan portfolio at the end of 1990, although containing almost no risk of loss from defaults, bore almost entirely made up of instruments of short maturity or bearing interest rates that adjust automati- associations and roughly the same as the 9.23% rate at the end of 1989. Because the loan portfolio is unrealized appreciation in Mutual Savings' interest-bearing securities and public utility preferred stocks. cally with the market, there is now much less unrealized depreciation in the loan portfolio than the net That appreciation at December 31, 1990 was about $11 million. on loans remains too low to provide respectable profits, this "spread" improved again last year. The While the "spread" between Mutual Savings' average interest rates paid on savings and received "spread" improved because interest rates paid on savings declined. Moreover, the disadvantage from inadequate "spread" has been reduced in each recent year by the effect of various forms of tax- advantaged antidote to inadequate interest rate margin on loans is the risk that preferred stock and advantaged investment, primarily preferred stock and municipal bonds. The negative side of this tax- to cover Mutual Savings' interest and other costs, if the general level of interest rates should sharply municipal bonds, with their fixed yield and long life, will decline in value, and not provide enough income amount of its net worth. rise. In view of this risk, Mutual Savings' total commitment has been kept conservative, relative to the causing Mutual Savings, step by step, to dispose of the preferred stock portion ($54.4 million, at cost, at New federal legislation enacted in 1989, widely known under the acronym "FIRREA," is now preserve earning power because tax-equivalent yield is so high (about 15% at December 31, 1990). December 31, 1990) of its tax-advantaged assets. Ownership of preferred stock has heretofore helped make impracticable the replacement, as they mature, of Mutual Savings' direct holdings of municipal Adding to our forced-disposition-of-desirable-assets problem, recent changes in income-tax law now bonds ($16.9 million, at cost, at December 31, 1990). The municipal bonds also have a high tax- expect virtually all benefit from tax-advantaged investment to vanish from Mutual Savings. equivalent yield (about 17.5% at December 31, 1990). By mid-1994, and possibiy much sooner, we ends June 30, 1991) requiring 60% of assets to be in various housing-related categories. It will shortly Mutual Savings remains a "qualified thrift lender" under the old federal regulatory standard (which change its asset mix as necessary to comply with a new standard, imposed by FIRREA, which requires that 70% of assets be maintained in a more restricted list of housing-related assets. its required 70% in housing-related assets within the following five categories: Until U.S. laws governing financial institutions are further revised, Mutual Savings expects to keep (1) mortgages issued in the course of sale of individual parcels, as Mutual Savings disposes of toreclosed seaside property in Santa Barbara, California; (2) directly made, fixed-rate house mortgages with short expected lives; (3) indirectly made fixed-rate house mortgages with short expected lives, purchased in the open market in the form of mortgage-backed securities; (4) a modest amount of directly made, long-term house mortgages with variable interest rates that fluctuate with the market up to 25% per annum; (5) a substantial number of directly made, long-term, fixed-rate house mortgages given only to within sever miles of Mutual Savingsoffice,and support Mutual Savings tons with hone persons of low-to-moderate income, many in minority groups, who have good credit, reside equities amounting to at least 20% of house value, with the maximum size of mortgage permitted being about $191,000. mortgages for local people of low-to-moderate income. Indeed this category is expected to cover a We will work hard to expand assets in category (5), covering small, long-term, fixed-rate house slightly below-market interest rates. Therefore, each new loan will cause an immediate economic loss, majority in number of all new directly made mortgages. We expect to impose no loan fees and to charge which will hit our earnings statement even before we sell the loans, as we plan to do. The loans will be 57
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
我们转售这些贷款,原因不在于它们是低质量信用工具,而在于我们不愿承受任何长期、固定利率抵押贷款所带来的资产负债期限错配。此类贷款属于第(5)类贷款。因此,在我们所在区域,此类贷款的可得性现在已不再有任何短缺。FIRREA 加大了对银行和储蓄机构的压力,要求它们扩大发放那种符合立法目标、面向信用良好人士的市场利率贷款。然而,所有贷款机构都面临合格借款人的短缺。面对这一短缺,当我们与更大、贷款部门更齐全的机构竞争时,要获得我们应占份额的合格贷款,最有效的方式就是报出低于市场利率的贷款利率和收费。
我们并不介意发放这些导致亏损的贷款。我们打算愉快地发放超过我们应占份额的贷款,而这是我们有能力做到的。我们感到遗憾的是,我们等了这么久才积极竞争这类贷款,并且是在监管机构的推动下才找到了如此简单的满意解决方案。我们过去存在思维障碍,是因为(1)我们不愿持有任何长期、固定利率贷款,(2)我们不愿将我们愿意发放的唯一一种可变利率贷款所蕴含的风险强加给中等收入借款人,(3)我们从未常规性地转售贷款或故意亏本放贷,以及(4)我们一直专注于避免许多其他储蓄和贷款经营者所遭遇的灾难性后果。当然,监管机构并没有要求我们现在亏本放贷。我们计划中的那个方面完全是我们自己的主动行为。
我们在第(4)类贷款(涵盖我们的可变利率贷款,利率可上升至 25%)方面一直难以吸引到大量具有满意特征的贷款。尽管我们采用了非常低的利差(比一年期美国国债利率高出约 2 个百分点),此类贷款仍供不应求。此外,虽然我们在可变利率贷款上没有出现损失,但遇到了几次收款延迟,部分原因是董事长作出的一项不胜任的政策决策。这两个因素使我们预期此类贷款将缩减至微不足道的规模。第(3)类贷款(短期、固定利率、抵押贷款支持证券类别)是一个“最后手段”类别。但它最终可能占总资产的很大比例,取决于其他地方的可用情况。
在选择抵押贷款支持证券时,我们可能不会购买任何复杂工具。尽管我们喜欢喜剧,但我们将避免最新的“REMICS 中跳跃 Z 层级”形式。这指的是一个特定的合同分数——一组抵押贷款的“Z 形式”——现在已经被乐于帮忙的发行人(在乐于帮忙的投资银行的建议下)细分为两个新的合同分数:(1)“黏性跳跃 Z”和(2)“非黏性跳跃 Z”。照这个速度,细分很快就会深入到夸克层次。我们不愿意购买此类证券,部分原因是出于对复杂性的厌恶。我们还害怕州和联邦检查人员(其中没有一个人拥有物理学博士学位)一个一个地审查我们的选择是否稳健,然后按成本加成方式向我们收费以反映如此增加的价值。我们渴望着一个逝去的时代,那时大多数理性的人只要努力,就能理解发生了什么——与此同时,现代金融的奇迹就让它在我们缺席的情况下继续上演吧。
总的来说,在未来几年内,我们的政策很可能会导致我们与住房相关的资产(不包括我们已止赎海景地产的一次性开发影响)继续产生接近储蓄和贷款行业中最低的平均总回报。每当我们投入每一美元的新储蓄时,增量回报可能勉强覆盖增量的利息和运营成本。互助储蓄很可能会缩减规模,因为它理应缩减规模。即便如此,我们预计互助储蓄将能够以让西科股东感到满意的中等预期方式勉力维持。我们的乐观主要来自(1)处置已止赎海景地产带来的预期小幅利润提振,以及(2)持有大量 Freddie Mac 股票带来的预期大幅利润提振。这两个乐观依据将在下文讨论。
互助储蓄有一处已止赎地产中的隐藏价值:位于圣巴巴拉的 22 英亩海景地块(于 1966 年购入)。当互助储蓄开始开发(以便销售,将其分成 20 栋房屋和 12 个地块)时,该地产的价值已升值至少 1200 万美元。现在,通过开发将捕获这一内置增值,前提是房价不出现崩盘或未预料到的监管新麻烦导致重大逆转。
58
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation resold, not because they are inferior credit instruments, but because we do not wish to endure the asset-versus-liability maturity mismatch imposed by any long-term, fixed-rate mortgage. covered by category (5). As a result, in our area there can now be no lack of availability in this category FIRREA has increased pressure on both banks and associations to expand lending of the sort face a shortage of qualified applicants. Given this shortage, as we now compete with bigger, better loan of market-rate loans, meeting legislative objectives, for persons with good credit. Instead, all lenders departments of larger institutions, the most efficient way to get our share of qualifying loans is to quote below-market interest rates and loan charges. our share, which we can well afford to do. We regret that we waited so long to compete vigorously for We do not resent making these loss-causing loans. We intend, with pleasure, to make more than simplicity. We were formerly brain-blocked, because (1) we didn't want to hold any long-term, fixed-rate these loans and that we required regulatory prompting before we found a satisfactory solution of such variable-rate loan we were willing to make, (3) we had never routinely resold loans or deliberately loans, (2) we didn't want to impose on moderate-income borrowers the risks implicit in the only kind of loaned at a loss, and (4) we were preoccupied with avoiding calamitous results which came to many That aspect of our program is the result of our initiative alone. other savings and loan operators. Regulators, of course, have not demanded that we now lend at a loss. category (4), covering our variable-rate loans which can escalate to bear interest rates of 25%. These We have had trouble attracting a significant volume of loans, with satisfactory characteristics, in loans have been in short supply despite our use of a very low interest rate spread (about 2 percentage variable-rate loans, we have encountered several collection delays, partly attributable to an incompetent points over the one-year U.S. Treasury rate). Moreover, while we have realized no losses on our significance. policy decision of the Chairman. These two factors cause us to expect this category to shrink to minor category for us. But it could eventually amount to a substantial percentage of assets, depending on what Category (3), the short-term, fixed-rate, mortgage-backed security category, is a "last-resort" is available elsewhere. Despite our love of comedy, we are going to avoid the newest form of "Jump Z tranches in REMICS." As we select mortgage-backed securities, we will probably not be buying any complex instruments. This refers to a particular subdivided by obliging issuers, advised by obliging investment bankers, into two new contractual contractual fraction — the "Z Form" - of a pool of mortgages, now fractions: (1) the "Sticky Jump Z" and (2) the "Non-Sticky Jump Z." At this rate, subdivision will soon get down to quarks. prospect of state and federal examiners, none of whom has a Ph.D. in physics, reviewing, one after the We are deterred from buying such securities partly by our hatred of complexity. We also dread the the wonders of modern finance go on without us as we yearn for a lost age when most reasonable other, our choices for soundness and billing us on a cost-plus basis to reflect value thus added. Some of people could, with effort, understand what was going on. (exclusive of the one-time effect of development of our foreclosed seaside property) to continue to In total, during the next few years, our policies will very likely cause our housing-related assets may not quite cover incremental interest and operating costs as we invest each new dollar of savings. It produce close to the lowest average gross return in the savings and loan industry. Incremental returns is quite conceivable that Mutual Savings will decline in size because it should decline in size. shareholders with moderate expectations. Our optimism comes mainly (1) from an expected minor Even so, we expect that Mutual Savings will muddle through in a manner satisfactory to Wesco boost caused by ownership of our large holding of Freddie Mac stock. Both of these grounds for profit boost from disposition of our foreclosed seaside property and (2) from an expected major profit optimism are discussed below. Barbara, acquired in 1966. By the time Mutual Savings started development (into 20 houses and 12 Mutual Savings has a buried value in a piece of foreclosed property: 22 seaside acres in Santa built-in appreciation will now be captured through development, assuming no large reverses caused by lots) in order to facilitate sale, the value of this property had appreciated by at least $12 million. The collapse of housing prices or unanticipated new regulatory troubles. 58
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摘自西科金融 1990 年年报
在第一年出售约一半的地块。开发过程带来的增值将很少甚至没有利润。第一栋房子已接近完工,约 15 栋正在建设中。我们预计在年底前完成交易。海滨土地开发,在当前加州监管和市场条件下,基本是无利可图的活动——如果你还算走运的话。它充满了古怪离奇的事件,很像一部没完没了的切维·切斯电影。
1988 年,互助储蓄进行了一笔大规模且不同寻常的买入。它将持有的联邦住房贷款抵押公司(即广为人知的“房地美”)股份增至 240 万股,占总股本的 4%。互助储蓄的平均成本为每股 29.89 美元,而 1990 年底在纽约证券交易所的交易价格为 48.75 美元。因此,按 1990 年底的交易价格计算,互助储蓄在房地美股票上持有约 4530 万美元的未实现税前利润。按当前税率,潜在的税后利润约为 2670 万美元,合每股西科流通股 3.75 美元。
房地美,最初由联邦机构(联邦住房贷款银行委员会)创建并长期经营,现已转为私有,主要由机构投资者持有。它现在由一位非常精明的首席执行官利兰·布伦塞尔领导,并由一个出色的独立董事会管理,成员包括 Banc One 的约翰·B·麦考伊和所罗门兄弟前首席经济学家亨利·考夫曼。房地美主要通过购买住房抵押贷款,立即将其转化为它担保并迅速出售的抵押贷款支持证券,来支持住房建设。在此过程中,房地美赚取费用和“利差”,同时避免了大部分利率变动风险。这是一门比大多数(甚至大多数前 10% 的)储蓄和贷款协会从事的业务要好得多的生意,这一点从房地美近年来的高股本回报率可以得到证明。这些高回报率的一个具有讽刺意味的原因,是这家由联邦监管机构创立的机构无需支付存款保险费,因为它取代了储蓄贷款行业过去的许多职能。以房地美 1990 年的股息率(每年每股 1.60 美元)计算,互助储蓄的税前收益率仅为每股 29.89 美元平均成本的 5.35%。税后,股息收益率仅为 4.4%,但这约占当前超高等级抵押贷款税后收益率的 75%。此外,房地美在避免严重贷款损失和增加其收益及股息率方面有着值得称道的历史,这些优点有助于其股价的上涨。以下是 1985-1990 年的数据:
| 截至 12 月 31 日止年度 | 每股收益 | 每股股息 | 年底市价 | 全部平均股本的收益率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985.. | $ .53 | 30.0% | ||
| 1986 | 2.98 | $1.13 | $ 9.19 | |
| 1987 | 3.72 | 1.10 | 15.17 | 28.5 |
| 1988 | 4.53 | 1.25 | 12.12 | 28.2 |
| 1989 | 5.73 | 1.60 | 50.50 | 27.5 |
| 1990 | 6.90 | 1.60(2) | 48.75 | 25.0 |
(1) 重述
(2) 于 1991 年 3 月 8 日提高至年化率每股 2.00 美元
尽管房地美竞争地位强大,但其股票市值在 1990 年下跌了 27%(从每股 67.12 美元跌至 48.75 美元,按纽约证券交易所交易价格计)。下跌的一个原因是公寓楼贷款的意外损失,特别是在纽约和亚特兰大。因此,房地美明智地停止了其公寓楼贷款购买计划中最明显危险的部分。但它仍然是某些旧贷款的担保人或所有者(幸运的是,这些旧贷款只占公寓楼贷款总额的一小部分,占总贷款的比例更是微乎其微),这些贷款将在未来多年造成麻烦。考虑到房地美所处的地位、其财务杠杆以及国家的需求,(1)除了由信誉良好的人支付了大额首付的自住、独户、非度假性质的房屋外,房地美根本就不应该为任何其他东西提供融资,(2)除了与信誉明显无可挑剔的抵押贷款发起人和服务商打交道外,房地美不应该与任何其他人打交道。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation sale of about half the parcels during the next year. There will be little or no profit added to built-in The first house is nearly finished, and about 15 houses are under construction. We expect to close appreciation by the development process. Seaside land development, under present regulatory and happenings and closely resembles a Chevy Chase movie of extreme duration. market conditions in California, tends to be a no-profit activity - if you are lucky. It is full of queer Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (widely known as "Freddie Mac") to 2,400,000 shares, 4% of total In 1988 Mutual Savings made a large and unusual purchase. It increased its holdings of Federal per share in trading on the New York Stock Exchange at the end of 1990. Thus, based on 1990 yearend shares outstanding. Mutual Savings' average cost is $29.89 per share, compared to a price of $48.75 trading prices, Mutual Savings had an unrealized pre-tax profit in Freddie Mac shares of about $45.3 million. At current tax rates the potential after-tax profit is about $26.7 million, or $3.75 per Wesco share outstanding. now owned privately, largely by institutional investors. It is now led by a very smart CEO, Leland Freddie Mac, created and long run by a federal agency (the Federal Home Loan Bank Board), is Banc One and Henry Kaufman, former chief economist of Salomon Brothers. Freddie Mac supports Brendsel, and governed by an outstanding independent board of directors, including John B. McCoy of backed securities that it guarantees and promptly sells. In the process Freddie Mac earns fees and housing primarily by purchasing housing mortgage loans for immediate transmutation into mortgage- "spreads" while avoiding most interest-rate-change risk. This is a much better business than that by Freddie Mac's high percentage returns earned on equity capital in recent years. One ironic cause of carried on by most (or indeed most of the top 10% of) savings and loan associations, as demonstrated replaces much of the former function of the savings and loan industry. Freddie Mac's high returns on the high returns is that this creation of federal regulators pays no deposit-insurance premiums as it was only 5.35% on its $29.89 average cost per share. Post-tax, the dividend yield was only 4.4%, but this At Freddie Mac's 1990 dividend rate ($1.60 per annum per share), Mutual Savings' pre-tax yield Freddie Mac has a creditable history of avoiding really hurtful loan losses and increasing its earnings amounted to about 75% of the current after-tax yield from very high grade mortgages. Moreover, figures for 1985-1990: and dividend rate, virtues that contribute to increases in the market price of its stock. Following are Dividends Year-End Freddie Mac's Year Ended 12/31: per Share Earnings per Share Market Price Return Earned per Share on All 1986 1985.. $2.98 $ .53 1.13 $ 9.19 Average Equity 1988 1987 4.53 3.72 7.28(1) 5.73 1.10 15.17 30.0% 1.25 12.12 28.5 6.90 1.60 50.50 28.2 1989 1.60(2) 67.12 27.5 1990 48.75 25.0 20.4 ('' restated raised to annualized rate of $2.00 per share on March 8, 1991 1990 (from $67.12 per share to $48.75 per share, in trading on the New York Stock Exchange). One Despite Freddie Mac's strong competitive position, its stock declined in market value by 27% ir reason for the decline was unanticipated losses from apartment house loans, particularly in New York apartment house loan buying program. But it remains the guarantor or owner of some old loans nd Atlanta. As a result. Freddie Mac wisely discontinued the most obviously dangerous part of its will create misery for years. It was probably ill-advised for Freddie Mac, given its position and financial (fortunately a small portion of total apartment house loans and a really tiny portion of total loans) that leverage and the nation's needs, (1) ever to finance anything except owner-occupied, single-family, non-vacation houses, for which substantial down payments had been made by credit-worthy people, and (2) ever to deal with anyone other than mortgage originators and servicers of obvious integrity and 59
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
为获取本不需要的东西而拿已有和必需的去冒险,这并不明智;房地美将其杠杆能力延伸到力不能及之处,似乎同样不明智——它本可以从显然靠谱的借款人手中,谨慎挑选个人住房第一抵押权贷款来买。每个放贷机构(包括写这封信的这家)似乎都注定要通过痛苦的亲身经历,才能学会两个从过去中得出的显而易见的教训:
(1)避免愚蠢贷款造成损失的第一个机会,就是拒绝放贷;没有第二次机会。
(2)当你在竞争秩序中占据某个高利润利基时,你必须清楚,你当下的繁荣有多少源于能确保新业务成功的才能与势能,又有多少仅仅反映了恰好身处当前利基的好运气。
从普遍经验(包括我们自己的)来看,教训(1)最终总会学到,但教训(2)却抗拒学习,尽管多次受挫造成了巨大的痛苦。
据我们所能预见,房地美在公寓楼贷款上遇到的麻烦尚在可承受范围之内,其规模对其长期前景的损害,不会比 1963 年沙拉油丑闻对美国运通长期前景的损害更严重。此外,房地美现任管理层和董事们似乎都已吸收了适合房地美的信条,并愿意忍受必要的政治摩擦,以保持运营稳健。我们喜欢我们的重仓。
奇怪的是,互助储蓄持有的房地美股票,根据《金融机构改革、复苏与执行法》(FIRREA)虽属合法持有,但(1)目前在新的“70% 资产测试”中不计入“住房相关资产”,且(2)必须逐步减记至零,以满足监管会计目的。随着这些规定开始产生约束力,互助储蓄将处置其部分房地美股票。一个可选方案是将股票转让给另一家西科子公司,以换取现金。我们目前对自己拖延的策略尚感满意。我们预计银行业/储蓄贷款协会领域还会有进一步的变化,可能是剧烈的变化,我们将随着变化展开而适应。
我们对储贷行业的未来有何预期?我们仅知道,进一步的立法似乎不可避免。我们既无法预测这些变化,也无法预测变化会让事态变好还是变坏。但我们确实有一些看法。这些看法几乎完全与当前学术界、政府官员、银行业高管以及——最重要的——银行业游说团体中的主流思想格格不入。尽管不落俗套,我们现在还是把这些看法提供给西科股东,因为它们可能有助于了解我们的机构特性以及未来可能采取的行动。我们也抱有一丝希望——但也仅是一丝——希望下面阐述的这些看法能发挥更广泛的、公民层面的效用。
首先,让我们转向银行业,之后再讨论储贷业务。
银行业存款保险损失总额很可能会远低于最近由储蓄与贷款协会造成的约 2000 亿美元。但病得很重的银行很多,存款保险损失必定不小。此外,即便没有这些损失,现代银行日益强调消费贷款(甚至以 20% 的利率放贷供人去塔希提岛度假),以及向金融发起人和房地产开发商放贷,这本身就足以令人深感遗憾。我们已远离开那种强调银行家为大小企业提供类似皮埃尔·杜邦为通用汽车所做贡献的理想。显然,我们面临一个双叉的银行业问题:可疑的优先事项转变伴随着日益严重的破产。这些成本来源于(1)对受保机构所支付利率的解除管制,外加(2)来自新竞争者的压力,其中包括拥有巨大竞争优势的货币市场基金。
货币市场基金的竞争优势到底有多大?要看清这一点,不妨将一家受严格监管、支付高额存款保险费的银行的平均成本,与在一个放松管制的环境中被创造出来的事物所承担的成本进行比较。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation what he doesn't have and doesn't need, it seems unwise for Freddie Mac to stretch its leveraged competence. Just as it is unwise for an individual to risk losing what he has and needs in an effort to gain resources beyond purchase from obviously responsible people of carefully selected first mortgages on individual houses. Each lender, including the one writing this letter, seems destined to learn through painful, personal experience two obvious lessons from the past: (1) The first chance you have to avoid a loss from a foolish loan is by refusing to make it; there is no second chance. (2) As you occupy some high-profit niche in a competitive order, you must know how much of your how much merely reflects the good fortune of being in your present niche. present prosperity is caused by talents and momentum assuring success in new activities, and In common experience, including ours, lesson (1) is eventually learned, but lesson (2) resists learning, despite high pain inflicted by multiple reverses. scale and will no more significantly impair its long-term prospects than the salad oil swindle of 1963 As nearly as we can foretell, Freddie Mac's troubles with apartment house loans are endurable in of Freddie Mac all seem to have absorbed a catechism appropriate for Freddie Mac and to be willing to impaired the long-term prospects of American Express. Moreover, the present managers and directors endure political friction burns as necessary to keep operations sound. We like our large position. do not count as "housing-related assets" in the new 70%-of-assets test, and (2) must be written down, Strangely, Mutual Savings' holdings of Freddie Mac, while lawful to own under FIRREA, (1) so far in stages, to a value of zero for regulatory accounting purposes. As these provisions start to bind, another Wesco subsidiary in return for cash. Mutual Savings will dispose of part of its Freddie Mac stock. One option is the transfer of stock to we are satisfied at the moment with our temporizing strategy. We expect further changes, possibly What future in the savings and loan business do we expect? We don't know anything more than that radical, in the bank/savings-and-loan-association field, to which we will adapt as they unfold. further legislation seems inevitable. We can predict neither the changes, nor whether the changes will The present situation, with its many insolvent and almost-insolvent institutions, is such a mess that make matters better or worse. But we do have some opinions. These opinions are almost totally out of most of all, among banking lobbyists. Despite this unconventionality, our opinions are now given to step with current thinking in academia, among government officials, among banking executives and, action. We also hope, but only slightly, that the opinions, set forth below, will have a wider, civic utility. Wesco shareholders because they may provide some insight into our institutional nature and likely future First, let us turn to banking, after which we will consider the savings and loan business. The sum of all deposit-insurance losses in banking will probably be much lower than the $200 billion or so recently caused by savings and loan associations. But there are a lot of very sick banks, and would be much to regret in the nature of our modern banks as they have increasingly emphasized deposit-insurance losses are sure to be large. Moreover, even if there had been no such losses, there lending for consumption (even lending at 20% for vacations in Tahiti) and lending to financial promoters to both big and small businesses, of what Pierre DuPont provided to General Motors. Plainly, we have a and real estate developers. We have come a long way from an ideal emphasizing the banker's provision, two-forked banking problem, with a questionable shift in priorities accompanying rising insolvencies. new competitors, including money-market funds possessing a large competitive edge. costs that came from (1) decontrol of interest rates paid by insured institutions plus (2) pressure from heavily regulated bank, paying high deposit-insurance premiums, with what has been created in an Exactly how great is the money-market funds' competitive edge? To see, compare the average 60
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
在截至 1990 年 6 月 30 日的财年中,一只 40 亿美元的此类基金(短期投资共同基金)做到了以下几点:这是一种极端的无保险货币市场基金。
(1) 将资产持有于美国政府及其他信用可靠实体发行的流动性短期债务;
(2) 为存款人提供高效的支票签发和电汇服务;
(3) 将总运营成本控制在每年存款额的 0.2% 以下,因为它省去了开设分行、存款保险等费用;
(4) 没有投入自有资本作为支撑对存款人承诺的安全垫;
(5) 为其计息账户支付极具竞争力的利率,因此存款额增长了 27%。
这个例子说明了化繁为简所具有的原始竞争力。事实上,在这个例子中,所有成本加起来,大致相当于当地一家普通银行为联邦存款保险支付的保险费!我们面对的可不是什么小打小闹的竞争优势。新的竞争对手是一股势不可挡的力量。
这个新竞争对手有多重要?自然,它已经从前由银行(及储蓄贷款协会)服务的市场中咬下了一大块——而银行则背负着高得多的成本。不这样才怪呢!这里有一张引人注目的图表,转载自全球最好的杂志之一——英国的《经济学人》:
从无到有
未清偿金额,12 月
单位:10 亿美元
600
超级可转让支付账户
400
货币市场
300
货币市场
200
存款账户:
100
来源:美联储
货币市场基金实质上是“非银行”银行,提供计息的储蓄账户和支票账户。而且,由于时运奇特,它们受到不堪重负的美国证券交易委员会的宽松监管,结果反而比完全没有监管更有利。美国证券交易委员会的规则迫使这类基金的投资主要局限于相当安全且流动性好的类别。这催生了成本很低的简单运营。
这种(或有心或无心地采取的)简单、低成本、捞取市场精华的做法,常常在商业中行之有效。例如,看一下 (1) GEICO,一家极为成功的汽车保险公司,西科公司的母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦持有其近 50% 股份;或者 (2) 各种会员制仓储俱乐部,采用索尔·普莱斯创立的模式,目前正以不到 10% 的总加价率碾压零售业竞争对手。而正如预期,这种方法对于货币市场基金也极其有效,你可以在《经济学人》的图表中看到这一点。
当这些成功的新低成本竞争对手抢走越来越多的市场份额时,与此同时每家银行的同行业竞争对手又能随意出价,这对银行产生了什么影响?
- 总成本很低,尽管其中包含支付给“非独立”独立管理公司的费用,这些费用含有可观的利润成分,公司是依据共同基金惯例聘用的。虽然刘易斯·卡罗尔可能会喜欢刚才使用的术语在字面上的一致性,但很难说这适合银行体系。在误导性的标签下“装样子”在银行里不是好主意。而所有“装样子”的习惯都容易蔓延。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation billion fund (The Common Fund for Short Term Investments) did all of the following: extreme form of uninsured money-market fund. In the fiscal year ended June 30, 1990 one such $4 (1) kept its assets in liquid short-term obligations of the U.S. government and other credit-worthy entities; (2) furnished efficient checkwriting privileges and wire transfer service to its depositors; (3) kept its total operating costs under two-tenths of 1% of deposits per annum as it avoided costs of maintaining branch offices, deposit insurance, etc.; (4) furnished no capital of its own as a cushion supporting promises to depositors; and (5) paid very competitive rates on its interest-bearing accounts, as a result of which it grew 27% in example all costs combined have been controlled so as to be roughly equal to what the average local This example demonstrates the raw competitive power of keeping things simple. Indeed, in this advantage. The new competition is a juggernaut. bank pays for federal deposit insurance alone! We are not dealing with some minor competitive bite out of the market formerly served by banks (and savings and loan associations) burdened by much How important has the new competitor become? Naturally, the new competitor has taken a huge higher costs. How could it be otherwise? Here is a dramatic graph reprinted from what is surely among the best magazines in the world, England's The Economist: From nowhere Amounts outstanding. December $bn 600 Super-NOW accounts 400 honey marke 300 oney-market 200 leposit account: 100 Source: Federal Reserve and checking accounts. And, by an odd stroke of good fortune, their light regulation by an overburdened The money-market funds are, in substance, "non-bank" banks, furnishing interest-bearing savings investment largely confined to reasonably safe and liquid categories. This has spawned simple SEC has turned out to be more advantageous than no regulation at all. The rules of the SEC force operations with very low costs. in business. For instance, look at (1) GEICO, a hugely successful auto insurer almost 50% owned by The simple, low-cost*, cream-the-market approach thus taken (or stumbled into) often works well Price, which are now clobbering retailing competitors as they get total "markup" under 10%. And this Wesco's parent corporation or (2) various membership warehouse clubs, in the form invented by Sol approach, as would be expected, is working like gangbusters for the money-market funds, as you see in the graph from The Economist. more of the market while, at the same time, each bank's banking competitors could bid as they wished What were the effects on banks as these new and successful, low-cost competitors took more and
- Total costs are low, even though they include fees containing a substantial profit element that are paid by the
"non-bank" banks to the "non-independent" independent managing companies employed in conformity with not clear that it befits a banking system. "Pretending" under misleading labels is not a good idea in banks. All mutual fund practice. While Lewis Carroll might have liked the consistency of the nomenclature just used, it is "pretending" habits tend to spread. 61
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
的发起人和房地产开发商。事实上,我们许多头脑最清醒的银行家,很自然地看到了我们最好的银行与最好的企业之间的重要纽带。这些银行被迫停止向其信用最佳的客户放贷,接受了任何利差的消失,转而进入一个完全不同的市场利基(已有一些参与者):高息贷款。
我们很难确切知道,因为过去高息贷款一直很难获得资金支持。而当几乎所有银行都变成高息贷款专家时,会发生什么呢?高息贷款是一个相对较新的现象,之所以成为可能,是因为政府以存款保险形式提供支持,而使用这种存款保险的银行本质已变。但以往的经验给出了一个可能的答案:许多银行将会破产。高息贷款,因为是来自持怀疑态度的资金,而不是政府保险的存款,所以当它达到很大规模时,就会提供这样一个答案。正如简单、低成本、撇取市场精华的策略是常见的商业赢家,相反的策略——涉及高成本和高价格——通常是常见的输家。高息贷款领域通常既提供(1)一些赢家,也带来(2)许多伤亡者,而且这些伤亡者往往在“跟风”导致资产质量恶化之后成批出现。(还记得房地产投资信托贷款中广泛出现的灾难吧。)而且,随着高息贷款领域扩张并变得拥挤,由政府支持驱动,过去这些糟糕的经历自然还会恶化。
“当效率更高、无保险且所受监管更少的金融机构抢走了盈利的业务,[新英格兰银行] 就只能集中在商业房地产上。这人为地把资金推入了波士顿的建筑热潮,而后者不可避免地变成了泡沫。”
抱有这种诊断的不止我们。以下是近期《华尔街日报》一篇社论的摘录:
考虑到存在反常激励,在我们的现行制度下,是什么运行机制导致了普遍的不良贷款(即那些高利率并不足以充分覆盖新增损失风险的贷款)?毕竟,不良贷款虽然对面临成本压力的银行家似乎说得通,但从定义上看却是不理性的,至少对发放贷款的银行和更广泛的社会而言是不理性的。那么,为什么不良贷款还如此频繁地出现呢?
它之所以出现,(部分)是因为人作为社会动物,存在可预见的非理性行为。实验社会心理学已经相当清楚地表明,身处两难困境的人——我们的制度将银行家置于的正是这种困境——特别容易对他人的行为示范做出不明智的反应,这种行为现在被广泛称为“社会证明”。因此,一旦某位银行家看似(实则并未)通过不明智的放贷解决了自己的成本压力问题,就会有相当多的模仿性“从众愚行”自然发生,依赖的就是这种“社会证明”。额外的大规模非理性放贷,是不明智的会计惯例以某种方式对愚行“强化”的结果,本信稍后会对此展开讨论。当驱动你的信息本身就是错的,而这些信息又来自一个设计不良的系统时,你很难保持明智。
在化学里,如果你把混合后会爆炸的成分混在一起,就一定会惹上麻烦,直到你学会不让它们混合为止。美国的银行体系也是如此。在我们看来,大量愚蠢、毫无效用的贷款和众多银行破产,在现有的美国银行文化下,纯粹是以下两个要素组合的自然结果:
(1)几乎不受限制的存款保险;以及
(2)对受保存款的利率不加控制。
这两个要素组合起来产生了格雷欣法则效应,也就是“坏贷款驱好贷款”。然后,如果再把下面的因素(3)加到这个已经很不健康的组合上,我们认为存款保险的麻烦必定会进一步扩大——而且幅度不小:
(3)相对不受监管、无存款保险、低成本的“非银行”银行。
此外,当政府开始遭受巨额存款保险损失时,如果它不断(出于一种自然、不假思索的反应)通过提高存款保险价格来应对,我们认为这将形成一种“失控反馈”模式,使问题进一步恶化。这是因为政府给银行施加了更大的成本压力,反而加重了它试图解决的问题的根源。这种涨价“疗法”无异于试图用煤油去扑灭大火。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation promoters and real estate developers. Indeed, many of our most decisive bankers, quite logically, important linkage between our best banks and our best businesses. The banks had been forced into an stopped trying to make loans to their most credit-worthy customers, accepting the disappearance of any entirely different market niche (which already had some occupants): high-interest-rate lending. It is hard to know for sure, because, throughout the past, high-interest-rate lending was hard to fund And what can be expected when virtually all banks become specialists in high-interest-rate lending? high-interest-rate lending is a comparatively recent phenomenon, made possible by governmental since it came from skeptical sources, instead of from government-insured deposits. Really large-scale, exists gives a likely answer: many bank insolvencies will come. Just as the simple, low-cost, cream-the- support in the form of deposit insurance used by banks with altered natures. But such experience as prices, is a common loser. High interest rate lending as a field has usually provided (1) some winners market strategy is a common business winner, the opposite strategy, involving high costs and high and (2) many casualties, often coming in bunches after periods of "follow-the-leader" asset-quality should naturally worsen as the high-interest-rate lending field both expands and becomes overcrowded, debasement. (Remember the widespread disasters in R.E.I.T. lending.) And the past bad experience driven by governmental support. "When more efficient, uninsured and less regulated financial institutions creamed off profitable lines of We are not alone in our diagnosis. Here is an except from a recent Wall Street Journal editorial: diverted money into Boston's building boom, which inevitably became a bust." business, the [Bank of New England] was left concentrated in commercial real estate. This artificially widespread bad loans (where the higher interest rates do not adequately cover increased risk of loss) Granting the presence of perverse incentives, what are the operating mechanics that cause cost pressure, is, by definition, not rational, at least for the lending banks and the wider civilization. How under our present system? After all, the bad lending, while it has a surface plausibility to bankers under then does bad lending occur so often? now pretty clear (in experimental social psychology) that people on the horns of a dilemma, which is It occurs (partly) because there are predictable irrationalities among people as social animals. It is peoples' conduct, now widely called "social proof." So, once some banker has apparently (but not where our system has placed our bankers, are extra likely to react unwisely to the example of other folly," relying on the "social proof," is the natural consequence. Additional massive irrational lending is really) solved his cost-pressure problem by unwise lending, a considerable amount of imitative "crowd discussed later in this letter. It is hard to be wise when the messages which drive you are wrong "reinforcement" of foolish behavior, caused by unwise accounting convention in a manner messages provided by a mal-designed system. not to allow the mixture. So also, in the American banking system. To us, a lot of foolish, unproductive In chemistry, if you mix items that explode in combination, you always get in trouble until you learn lending and many bank insolvencies are the natural consequences, given existing American banking culture, of the combination of the following two elements alone: (1) virtually unlimited deposit insurance; and (2) uncontrolled interest rates on insured deposits. good." Then, if factor (3) below is added to an already unsound combination, we think deposit- These two elements combine to create a Gresham's law effect, in which "bad lending tends to drive out insurance troubles are sure to be further expanded - and not by a small amount: (3) relatively unregulated, non-insured, low-cost "non-bank" banks. responds (in a natural, unthinking reaction) by raising deposit-insurance prices, we think it creates a Moreover, when the government starts suffering big deposit-insurance losses, if it continuously "runaway-feedback" mode and makes its problems worse. This happens because the government, by price-raising "cure" is the equivalent of trying to extinguish a fire with kerosene. adding even more cost pressure on banks, increases the cause of the troubles it is trying to cure. The 62 J
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转载自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
将(1)利率的“自由市场”定价与(2)政府的支付担保结合起来。如果许多声名显赫的“专家”不同意我们关于系统性不负责任的看法,而这些声名显赫的“专家”又错了,这怎么可能呢?我们的解释是,“专家”们对源自亚当·斯密的一个令人钦佩、强大且具有预测能力的模型过于着迷。存款的自主利率披着“自由市场”的外衣,让人很容易便不假思索地断定,这些自主利率就像其他自由市场机制一样,必定是好的。实际上,即便它们与政府存款保险这一根本性的非自由市场元素结合之后,人们仍然认为它们是好的。
这种不合逻辑的思维暴露了在一切软科学中困扰“专家”角色的典型蠢行:人们往往只运用自己学科细分领域的模型,而忽略或轻视其他模型。此外,任何一个模型越是强大有用,就越容易因过度自信的误用而产生谬误。
这让人想起本·格雷厄姆那个看似矛盾的观察:好想法比坏想法在投资中造成的麻烦更多。他说得对。我们所有人都太容易把一个相当好的想法推向糟糕的极端,佛罗里达地产泡沫或“漂亮 50”公司股票便是如此。然后,再掺入一点“社会认同”(来自其他专家),脑子(包括我们自己的)常常就变成了一团浆糊。如果那些伟大的老模型永远不会欺骗我们,那就好了,可惜,“总有些梦无法成真”。连爱因斯坦也在晚年被模型欺骗过。
我们可能是对的,也可能是错的。但,如果我们是对的,如果美国银行体系存在深刻的结构性缺陷,那么仅仅允许银行跨州设立分行、销售保险或进入投资银行业务(或者以上全部)并不能结束我们的麻烦。相反,一个能够长效解决问题的办法,只能来自政府在考虑了更激进的系统修改方案之后。这些方案中的每一项都有其势力强大、声音洪亮的反对者。那么,可以考虑的更极端的修改方案有哪些呢?我们认为清单包括:
(1)大幅削减存款保险;
(2)取缔货币市场基金;
(3)对受保存款所支付的利率恢复某种形式的管制;
(4)加强对银行贷款的监管控制,以图减少贷款损失;
(5)强制银行业在涉及贷款的会计处理上采用更保守的规则;
(6)在弱小银行资不抵债之前,强制其易手给其他机构;以及
(7)强制资不抵债的银行并入当地有竞争力的银行,或彻底退出市场,而不是并入实力雄厚的外州银行。
接下来,我们尝试简要讨论一下这七种政府可选方案各自的优点和/或政治前景。
方案(1):大幅削减存款保险:
对许多人来说,回想起往日的银行业恐慌,这项方案若全面推行,就如同试图用带回霍乱来解决拥挤问题。因此,该方案的支持者通常会通过以下方式来限制其影响:(1)只在小型银行(大银行在所有发达国家,无论法律如何规定,都“大到不能倒”)重演银行“挤兑”;(2)只让部分富裕储户重新承担存款损失。由于选民不喜欢任何规模的银行“挤兑”,而小银行也不喜欢这种歧视性做法,看来不太可能以足以解决结构性缺陷的力度来推行存款保险的削减。可以设想,“经纪”存款可以被剔除出保险覆盖范围,这一举措的推动力来自立法上对诸多滥用行为的记忆,其中涉及股票经纪人协助融资,支持那些应受谴责的受保存款机构。(许多股票经纪人可以轻易看出,他们受雇出售的受保存款凭证,是由那些由无赖和蠢货管理、坐拥一堆垃圾贷款和垃圾证券的机构发行的。因此,这些股票经纪人知道,或应该知道,他们的政府正被抢劫。在这种条件下出售存款凭证,就像在邮局包裹里发现现金,然后认为据为己有是合乎道德一样。)
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Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation combining (1) "free-market" pricing of interest rates with (2) government guarantees of payment. If Many eminent "experts" would not agree with our notions about systemic irresponsibility from many eminent "experts" are wrong, how could this happen? Our explanation is that the "experts" are discretionary interest rates on deposits have a "free-market" image, making it easy to conclude, over-charmed with an admirable, powerful, predictive model, coming down from Adam Smith. Those automatically, that the discretionary rates, like other free-market processes, must be good. Indeed, they non-free-market element. are appraised as remaining good even when combined with governmental deposit insurance, a radical one tends to use only models from one's own segment of a discipline, ignoring or underweighing others. Such illogical thinking displays the standard folly bedeviling the "expert" role in any soft science: overconfident misuse. Furthermore, the more powertul and useful is any model, the more error it tends to produce through mischief than bad ideas. He had it right. It is so easy for us all to push a really good idea to wretched This brings to mind Ben Graham's paradoxical observation that good ideas cause more investment "social proof" (from other experts), and brains (including ours) often turn to mush. It would be nice if excess, as in the case of the Florida land bubble or the "nifty fifty" corporate stocks. Then mix in a little his later years. great old models never tricked us, but, alas, "some dreams are not to be." Even Einstein got tricked in banking system, it follows that merely giving banks the right to branch across state lines, to sell We may be right or wrong. But, if we are right, if there are deep, structural faults in the American insurance, or to enter investment banking (or all of the above) is not going to end our troubles. modifications in the system, each of which has powerful, vocal opponents. What are the more extreme Instead, a good long-term fix can come only after the government considers more extreme modifications to consider? We think the list includes: (1) greatly reducing deposit insurance; (3) bringing back some form of controls on interest paid on insured deposits; (2) eliminating money-market funds; (4) intensifying regulatory control of bank lending in an attempt to reduce loan losses; (5) forcing more conservative accounting covering bank lending; (6) forcing weak banks into other hands before the weak banks become insolvent; and (7) forcing insolvent banks into competing local banks, or entirely out of business, instead of into strong, out-of-state banks. Let us next attempt a brief discussion of the merits and/or political prospects of each of these seven governmental options. Option (1): greatly reducing deposit insurance: solve the overcrowding problem by bringing back cholera. Accordingly, proponents of this option To many people, remembering former banking panics, this option, adopted fully, seems like trying to regardless of law, are "too big to fail" in all advanced countries) and (2) bringing back deposit losses typically would limit its effects by (1) bringing back bank "runs" only for small banks (big banks, like discrimination, it seems unlikely that reductions in deposit insurance are going to be made on a scale only to some rich depositors. Because voters don't like bank "runs" of any size, and small banks don't insurance coverage, in a move driven by legislative remembrance of many abuses involving stockbro- that solves the structural defect problem. Conceivably, "brokered" deposits could be removed from ker-assisted financing of despicable insured institutions. (Many stockbrokers could easily see that the fools, presiding over piles of junk loans and junk securities. The stockbrokers thus knew, or should have insured certificates of deposit they were paid to sell were issued by institutions managed by knaves and known, that their government was being robbed. To sell certificates under such conditions was a lot like finding currency in a post office bag and deciding it was ethical to keep it.) 63
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选自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
选项二:取缔货币市场基金:
这个选项几乎从未被讨论过。这似乎有些奇怪。货币市场基金的诞生,源于某个聪明人在没有公共政策介入的情况下,将(1)依据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)规则获得的共同基金地位,与(2)通过分包合同从银行购买的服务结合在了一起。其结果,实质上创造出了一个几乎不受监管、没有存款保险的银行,提供有息储蓄和支票账户。如果当初需要新的立法才能批准这类实体的创建,那它很可能根本不会获批。还有哪里存在规模相当、并行运作、实质上完全相同的受监管与不受监管的实体?如果当初需要新立法,以下问题可能早就被提出来了:
(1)货币市场基金在“社区”贷款、为老年人提供基本服务等方面做了什么?
(2)它们对现有机构公平吗?
(3)这些新的“非银行”银行,难道不会让联邦储备系统更难提供建设性的经济服务吗?
(4)既然公众已经是现有机构偿付能力的担保人,担保人允许这些没有存款保险、专门撇脂、效率更高的经营者加入竞争,从而让自己蒙受亏损风险,这明智吗?(这个问题在私人场合并不难回答。假如你是你姐/妹夫开的汉堡店全部债务的担保人,而你又拥有阻止麦当劳在他旁边开店的权力,那么你会觉得允许麦当劳开业是非常愚蠢的。)
(5)综合上述(以及更多)考量,货币市场基金对整个银行体系的稳健性和服务水准,是否确实符合长远利益?
这些问题至今仍是好问题。但占有在法律上就是力量。货币市场基金这个精灵已经钻出了瓶子。而且,考虑到它的体型,想把它塞回去很难。重新装回瓶子的前景,显然十分渺茫。
选项三:对受保存款所支付的利息重新施加某种形式的管制:
这个选项如今也很少被讨论。这同样令人觉得奇怪。要是我们必须为姐/妹夫开的那家汉堡店的所有债务提供担保,那我们是无论如何也不会为他担保一笔 11% 利率的债务的——既然我们自己能轻松地以 8% 的利率借到钱——我们宁可把钞票扔进壁炉里烧掉。事实上,真要是发生了 11% 的交易,我们会怀疑这里面有不干不净的“猫腻”。
目前立法者对利率管制缺乏兴趣,原因之一是他们知道,早先那种形式的管制曾在利率升至高位时挤压缩了住房信贷。现在似乎没有人有兴趣去尝试制定形式上更灵活、实际操作中也能避免昔日缺陷的新管制措施。也没人对日本人(或美国自己)在长期实行银行利率管制期间所取得的成功有多大兴趣。利率管制这个选项,眼下看来已经没戏了。
选项四:加强对银行放贷的监管控制,以图减少贷款损失:
这个选项已经在实施了——但断断续续——效果有好有坏。这一做法在非银行业中确有成功的先例。比如,看看麦当劳的特许经营餐厅。如果你想在你的餐厅上使用麦当劳的品牌名称和金色拱门,你就必须按照一套极为有限、近乎万无一失的方式去经营。而且,麦当劳的做法在银行业也曾经奏效过。存款保险制度刚推出时,以及此后很长一段时间里,大多数受保银行都经营稳健,尽管靠的往往是薪酬不高的员工。但是,根据近期的所有先例来看,政府现在不会像麦当劳那样行事,也不会像它自己当年那样行事了。(如果政府想这么做,它现在或许就会把存款保险授予所有简单、稳健、通过购买商业票据向大企业放贷的货币市场基金,同时取消所有银行和储蓄贷款机构的存款保险!)相反,政府很可能会采取更有限的做法,同步推进以下几件事:(1)听任银行业在过度竞争中持续承压,(2)听任银行业保持极为复杂的局面,(3)试图通过制定卷帙浩繁、晦涩难懂的法规来预防问题——这些法规只会给律师创造更多活儿——然后(4)靠着一批不堪重负的公务员去监控银行运作。这些有限的补救措施也许聊胜于无,但指望它们切实修复银行体系,前景相当黯淡。这几乎是个不治之症。
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Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation Option (2): eliminating the money-market funds: being without public policy input when some clever person combined (1) mutual fund status under the This option is almost never discussed. This seems peculiar. The money-market funds came into essence, a virtually unregulated, S.E.C. With (2) purchase, under subcontract, of services from a bank. What was created was, in accounts. The creation of such entities would probably not have been authorized if new legislation had , uninsured bank furnishing interest-bearing savings and checking been necessary. Where else do we have virtually identical regulated and unregulated entities operating on the same scale, side by side? If new legislation had been needed, the following questions might have been raised: (1) What do money-market funds do for "community" lending, lifeline services to the elderly, etc.? (2) Are they fair to existing institutions? (3) Won't the new "non-bank" banks make it harder for the Federal Reserve System to render constructive economic service? (4) Since the public is already on the hook as guarantor of solvency of existing institutions, is it operators to add to the competition? (This question would not be hard to answer in a private wise for the guarantor to risk losses from allowing uninsured, cream-the-market, more efficient would consider it very foolish to allow McDonald's to commence operations by his side when setting. If you were guarantor of all obligations of your brother-in-law's hamburger joint, you you possessed the ability to prevent it.) (5) Considering all of the above (and more), are the money-market funds in the long-term interest of the soundness and service of the total banking system? genie is now out of the bottle. And, considering his size, it would be hard to put him back. The prospects These questions are still good questions. But possession is strength under law. The money-market of rebottling are plainly remote. Option (3): bringing back some form of controls on interest paid on insured deposits: you or 1 would consider if we had to guarantee all obligations of that hamburger joint owned by a This option, too, is now seldom discussed. Again, this seems peculiar. It is among the first things 8%, than we would burn currency in the fireplace. In fact, we would suspect dishonorable "monkey brother-in-law. We would no more guarantee an 11% obligation for him, when we could easily borrow at business" if an 11% transaction occurred. a former version of such controls constricted housing credit when interest rates rose to high levels. No One reason for present lack of legislative interest in interest-rate controls lies in the knowledge that one now seems interested in trying to develop new controls, more flexible in form and practice, that States) had during a long period of control of interest rates paid by banks. The interest-rate-control would avoid former defects. Nor is anyone much interested in the success the Japanese (or the United option, at the moment, seems dead. Option (4): intensifying regulatory control of bank lending in an attempt to reduce loan losses: has successful counterparts in non-banking businesses. For instance, take McDonald's franchised This option is already being exercised - erratically - with effects both good and bad. It certainly have to operate in a very limited, foolproof way. Moreover, the McDonald's approach once worked in restaurants. If you want to use the McDonald's authenticating name and arches on your restaurant, you banking. When deposit insurance first came in, and long thereafter, most insured banks operated in government won't now act like McDonald's, or itself in a former era. (If it wished to do that, it might now sound fashion, often through ill-paid employees. But, based on all recent precedents, the purchases of commercial paper, and take deposit insurance away from all the banks and savings and give deposit insurance to all the simple, sound money-market funds, lending to big business through loan associations!) Government, instead, will probably take the more limited approach of concurrently: (1) leaving banking over-stressed by competition, (2) leaving banking very complicated, (3) trying to and then (4) monitoring bank operations through overburdened civil servants. These limited remedies prevent problems by writing massive, hard-to-understand regulations that create more work for lawyers, may be better than nothing, but their prospects for causing a real banking fix seem poor. It is almost a 64
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(摘自韦斯科金融公司 1990 年年报)无法解决我们的问题。我们能期待的,只是选项 4 带来有限的积极效果,以及美国生活中那条普遍规则的延续:当激励机制全都错位时,控制手段(甚至刑事法律控制)也难以解决重要的基本问题。
选项 5:强制银行在贷款业务上采用更保守的会计处理:
银行贷款会计是当下的热门话题,但目标并非保守。大家都在纳闷,银行是如何在贷款变坏时拖延核销,以免过度纠正弱势银行的。我们就不介入那个问题了。
一个几乎从未被讨论过、却让我们感兴趣的问题,来自于新发放的高利率贷款,按照现行银行会计,这些贷款往往被视为“生来就是好的”。其结果是,所有应计利息,有时还包括一些前端费用,都被视为已完全赚得,即便整笔贷款交易的最终结果远未明朗。在我们看来,这是一种适得其反的会计方法,即使我们在惯例所迫时自己也这么用。
我们认为,现行对许多高息贷款采用的会计处理方法,在银行体系中造成了可怕的后果。本质上,它把那些本应推迟到风险赌注更清晰地获胜之后、在更保守的会计下才会确认的收入,“前置”进了报告收益中。这种做法,把许多银行家变成了 B. F. 斯金纳笔下的人形版鸽子——因短期内看到好看的数字而获得快感,从而“被强化”继续并扩大不良贷款。好看的数字在脑海中巧妙地替代了并不存在的内在机构优势,这部分是通过巴甫洛夫最初证明的过程实现的:我们仅仅因为某个关联通常预示着某种现实,而这种现实又会使该反应正确,便对其做出反应。
在现行会计下,银行现在通常报告收益和股东权益双双增长,即使在它们向风险更高的贷款过渡期间也是如此。然后,如果这种贷款继续发放,并伴随着机构规模的扩大,好看的报告数字还会再持续一段时间。如果被认为需要扩大机构规模,那么通过银行借助存款保险获得政府信贷支持,规模增长当然就有了保障。
我们认为,美国金融机构中被文化同化的企业本性,总体上根本无法应对这种会计所隐含的诱惑。实际上,以一种与长期机构利益不一致的方式屈服于诱惑,常常是通过潜意识过程发生的。这个潜意识过程同时包含了两个不良效应:(1)“社会认同”,以及(2)一种“否认现实”的模式,这种模式在那些根据机构规模被激励、被褒奖、被付酬的人心中制造了偏见。在现行体系下,出现一家哥伦比亚储蓄银行,以及许多不那么极端但类似其模式的情况,几乎是不可避免的。
当然,尽管存在这些诱惑,仍有相当一部分(甚至可能是多数)银行家会保持稳健。但这并不足以保护存款保险机构免受最终不可接受的损失。在现有条件下,存款保险机构早晚会遭遇某个爱调侃的人所称的“银行数量远比银行家数量多得多”的问题。
现在应该考虑的是强制性的会计变革,包括改变会计处理方式——针对股东,设计将各种高风险贷款(以及信用证)产生的收入“后置”到报告收益中,而不是继续允许“前置”的做法。这些变革将通过强制手段,使美国银行会计模仿一些最佳欧洲银行家长期以来自愿选择的做法。最终,银行的经审计财务报表——现在常被视为天方夜谭——或许能恢复一些可信度。
尽管我们看来,困扰现行体系的会计缺陷显而易见,但我们不认为任何明智且重要的会计变革会得到实施。银行对这些提议的典型反应,充其量就像是那位在最终封圣前很久就发问的人:“上帝啊,请赐予我贞洁,但请再等等。”此外,完成会计惯例中哪怕最简单、“无需动脑”的变更,所需要的时间段也往往被拖得很长。
选项 6:在弱势银行资不抵债之前,将它们推向其他机构的怀抱:
这个选项也是热门话题。目前政府的惯常做法是,只有在所有股东权益都耗尽、存款保险机构已蒙受巨大损失之后,才强制推动合并。这是“荒唐至极的”,是流程失控的表现。现在看来,完全合理的是,开始强制合并或关闭全国 13000 家银行中的许多家,并且在很多情况下,要在弱势银行资不抵债之前就动手。因为需要……
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation can't fix our troubles. We can expect limited good effects from Option 4 and the continuation of general rule of American life that, when incentives are all wrong, controls (even criminal-law controls) important, basic problems. Option (5): forcing more conservative accounting covering bank lending: much to delay loan write-ofts, when loans go sour, so as not to over-correct weak banks. We are not Bank accounting is a hot current topic, but conservatism is not the goal. Everyone is wondering how going to enter the lists on that problem. The almost-never-discussed problem that interests us is that presented by newly made loans, result is that all interest accrued, and sometimes some up-front fees, are treated as fully earned, even bearing high interest rates, that under current bank accounting tend to be treated as "born good." The though the final outcome of the whole loan transaction is far from clear. To us, this is counterproductive accounting, even though we use it ourselves when pushed by convention. banking system. In essence, it "front ends" into reported income revenues that would have been We think current accounting for many high-interest-rate loans has terrible consequences in the deferred until much later, after risky bets were more clearly won, if more conservative accounting had pigeons, since he is "reinforced" into continuing and expanding bad lending through the pleasure of been employed. This practice turns many a banker into a human version of one of B. F. Skinner's seeing good figures in the short term. The good figures substitute nicely in the mind for nonexistent respond to a mere association because it has usually portended a reality that would make the response underlying institutional good, partly through the process, originally demonstrated by Pavlov, wherein we correct. capital during any transition they make toward less conservative lending. And then, if more lending of Under prevailing accounting, banks now ordinarily report increases in both earnings and equity for an additional period. If an increase in institutional size is deemed necessary, it is, of course, assured that type is done, and is accompanied by growth in institutional size, good reported figures will continue by the bank's access to the government's credit through deposit insurance. average, handle temptations implicit in this sort of accounting. Indeed, the succumbing to the tempta- We think acculturated corporate nature, in American financial institutions, simply cannot, on tions, in a manner not consistent with long-term institutional interest, often occurs through a subcon- scious process. The subconscious process includes bad effects from both (1) "social proof," and (2) a "reality-denial" institutional size. Under our present system a Columbia Savings, and many less obscene versions of its mode that creates bias in people stimulated, honored and paid in proportion to model, are almost inevitable. But this outcome is not sufficient to protect the deposit insurer from unacceptable ultimate losses. In due Of course, a large minority, even a majority, of bankers will remain sound, despite the temptations. course, given present conditions, the deposit insurer will suffer from what some wag called the problem of there being so many more banks than bankers. ing to shareholders, designed to force "back-ending" into reported income of revenue from various What should now be considered are mandatory accounting changes, including changes in account- types of gamy lending (and letters of credit), in lieu of allowing "front-ending" to continue. The changes have long done by choice. Eventually, credibility might be returned to banks' audited financial state- would cause American bank accounting, by fiat, to imitate what some of the best European bankers ments, now often regarded as fairy tales. important accounting changes will be made. Typical bank reaction to such proposals is, at best, that of Despite the obvious (to us) accounting defects that bedevil our system, we don't think any wise and periods for accomplishing even the simplest, "no-brainer" changes in accounting convention tend to the man who asked, well before his ultimate sainthood: "God, give me chastity, but not yet." Also, time Option (6): forcing weak banks into other hands before the weak banks become insolvent: when all shareholders' equity is gone and the deposit insurer has a large loss. This is "bonkers," due This option is also a hot topic. Usual governmental practice at the moment is to force merger only process gone mad. It seems entirely logical now to commence the forced merger or closure of many of the nation's 13,000 banks and to do it in many cases before a weak bank is insolvent. Because the need 65
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(摘自韦斯科金融公司 1990 年年报)
这太明显了,法律和习俗可能会改变,促使更多这种情况发生。为了扩大潜在银行买家的数量,跨州开设分行也可能被允许。
虽然这些措施看似有益,但它们无法解决银行体系中深层次的结构性问题——至少在任何可以接受的时间范围内解决不了。看看眼下航空业的惨状。即使当航空业只剩下不到十几家重要运营商时,混乱的破产事件仍然在发生。如果我们等着在银行业看到航空业式的解决方案,我们将不得不忍受数年、乃至数十年的痛苦。
据马丁·迈耶最近在《华尔街日报》撰文称,美国联邦存款保险公司如今通常处置资不抵债银行的方式是在两个选项中二选一:
(1)强制该资不抵债银行并入本地的竞争对手,或者彻底倒闭,从而削弱本地竞争;或者
(2)首先用优质资产替换该资不抵债银行所有的坏资产,然后将其卖给某个精明的州外买家,此后这家新银行便能帮着打击该地区其他同样疲弱、同样受保的银行,而不是卖给实力强劲的州外银行。
选项(7):强制资不抵债银行并入本地竞争对手,或者彻底倒闭,而非进入实力强劲的州外银行:根据迈耶的说法,FDIC 在很多实例中选择的是选项(2),这种做法堪称“疯狂”。按迈耶所说,FDIC 由此安排使得“产能过剩被严格维持”。
迈耶提出了一个有趣的问题。回到前面用过的类比,如果你我真是倒霉蛋,要为七个本地连襟做担保,他们每人都有一个陷入困境的汉堡店,那第一家店倒闭时我们会怎么做?我们肯定会拒绝这样的想法:第一,把倒闭的店修整得比别家都好;第二,为一个想通过接管改良后设施进入市场的新来者——某个更精明的州外经营者——的债务提供担保。迈耶说得对,他的意思是银行和银行分行太多了,就像以前加油站也太多了一样,一个十字路口有时有三四个加油站。那些消失的加油站“永远不在了”,所以也许 FDIC 应该“列一份小清单”,就像《日本天皇》中那个嗜血的角色一样。
除此之外,我们并不确定迈耶的结论是否总是正确的。我们这个基本的银行体系完全出自《爱丽丝梦游仙境》,所以也许它就像非欧几何,只有爱丽丝梦游仙境式的疗法才真的适用。毕竟,让迈耶困扰的那种情景有一种反常的美,至少对政府而言是如此。银行倒闭潮一浪接一浪,又不断被新的政府干预刷新,这样 FDIC 就能长年累月地每年救起银行体系的一大部分。
而且我们必须承认,如果我们就是 FDIC,因此不得不深度参与我们当前的银行体系,那无论喜不喜欢,在那些我们偶尔看到机会能够在某些社区大幅改善其银行文化的罕见情形下,我们有时也会做迈耶认为不妥的事情。比如说,我们偶尔会把一家病恹恹的银行卖给约翰·麦考伊(第一银行的),即使这会把一家新银行带入一个充满问题银行的州,前提是州内每家银行看起来都太弱或太蠢,不适合作为替代买家。我们会盘算:(1)其他本地银行随后出现的一些资不抵债的情况,符合我们的长远利益;(2)我们支持的是一种健全的模式;(3)随着榜样的传播,我们作为这套愚蠢体系的存款保险机构所面临的麻烦终将减少。这样一来,在愚蠢的体系引发新麻烦之前,我们就能享受一段愉快的平静期,哪怕新麻烦可能会在麦考伊在第一银行的继任者任上重新冒出来。
迈耶的话题虽然有趣,但我们大概率不必过分担心它带来的世俗后果。在科学领域之外,一个强有力的想法,即便发表在像《华尔街日报》这样显要的地方,所能产生的影响之小,令人惊讶。每个人的经验都是,你只能教会读者几乎已经知道的东西,而且这种情况极少。
如果我们前面关于系统性不负责任以及能否找到理性解决之道的评论是正确的,或者说大体正确,那要对即将到来的银行业立法“改革”持乐观态度就难了。或许我们所能期望的最好结果,是门肯式的改革,即旧的错误被新的错误取代,而不是被真理取代。也有可能,我们将会看到完全相同的系统性错误重演,只不过身上多了些铃铛。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation is so obvious, laws and customs may possibly change to cause more of this to happen. And interstate branching may be allowed in order to enlarge the number of potential bank buyers. While these steps seem helpful, they won't fix the problem of deep structural fault in the system - at least within any acceptable time period. Look at the present carnage in airlines. Even when we are airline-style solution in banking, we will have to endure years, maybe decades, of suffering. down to fewer than a dozen significant operators, messy airline failures continue. If we wait for an instead of into strong out-of-state banks: Option (7): forcing insolvent banks into competing local banks, or entirely out of business, with an insolvent bank by choosing between two options: According to Martin Mayer, writing recently in The Wall Street Journal, the FDIC now typically deals (1) forcing the insolvent bank into a competing local bank, or entirely out of business, thus dampening local competition; or (2) first, replacing all the insolvent bank's bad assets with good assets, and, second, selling it to remaining also-weak-and-also-insured banks in the area. some skillful out-of-state buyer, after which process the new bank can help clobber the option (2). According to Mayer, the FDIC thus arranged that "overcapacity was rigorously maintained." Mayer believes it was "insane" for the FDIC to do as it did in many instances, which was to select unlucky and were guarantor for seven local brothers-in-law, each with a troubled hamburger joint, what Mayer raises an interesting question. Coming back to the analogy earlier used, if you or 1 were really defunct joint so that it was better than the others, and, second, guaranteeing the obligations of a new would we do when the first one went broke? We would surely reject the idea of, first, fixing up the facility. and more skillful out-of-state operator who wanted to enter the market by taking over the improved were formerly too many filling Mayer is right insofar as he implies that there are too many banks and bank branches, just as there figure in the Mikado. stations "never will be missed," so perhaps the FDIC should "have a little list," like the bloodthirsty stations, sometimes three or four at an intersection. The departed filling system is right out of Alice in Wonderland, so maybe it's like non-Euclidean geometry and only Alice-in- Beyond that, we are not certain that Mayer's conclusions will always prove right. The basic banking least to a government. The bank failures cascade, on and on, refreshed by new governmental acts, so Wonderland-type cures really fit in. After all, the scenario which troubles Mayer has a perverse beauty, at that the FDIC can be saving a large part of the banking system each year for a long time. present banking system, like it or not, we would occasionally do what Mayer finds objectionable, in those And we must admit that, if we were the FDIC and were thus forced to participate heavily in our for instance, occasionally sell a sick bank to John McCoy (of Banc One), even when this brought a new rare cases when we saw a chance for greatly improving banking culture in some community. We would, bank to a state full of troubled banks, if every in-state bank seemed too weak or foolish to be selected as in our long-term interest, (2) we were supporting a sound model, and (3) eventually, as the example an alternative buyer. We would figure that (1) some subsequent insolvencies of other local banks were pleasant lull before the silly system caused new troubles to pop up, maybe even under McCoy's spread, our troubles as deposit-insurer of a silly system would be reduced. We would then have a 22222 successors at Banc One. consequences. Outside science, it is amazing how little impact there can be from a powerful idea, While Mayer's subject is interesting, we probably don't have to worry much about worldly published in a prominent place (such as the Journal). Everyone's experience is that you teach only what a reader almost knows, and that seldom. or substantially right, it is hard to be optimistic about coming legislative "reform" of banking. Perhaps If our foregoing comments about systemic irresponsibility and chances for a rational cure are right, the best we can hope for is Menckenian reform where old error is replaced, not by truth, but by new error. It is also possible that we will see exactly the same old systemic error repeated, but bearing bells 66
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
接下来我们看看储蓄贷款行业。面对更加灾难性的烂摊子,立法者满腔愤怒,试图推行他们眼中的极端改革:FIRREA。这项法律采取了“回归本原”的思路,而随后监管者对它的解释,似乎让人可以理解地认为,他们必须像强硬的“保安”一样行事,肩负起给一场醉酒斗殴维持秩序的重任(这种说法还低估了监管者面对的场面)。
这种监管做法现在正在挤出(1)大量愚蠢行为,以及(2)一些维持机构健康所需的非愚蠢行为。其他储贷机构的多数高管只盯着负面的一面,对监管者清除非愚蠢行为的做法愤愤不平。他们倾向于把当前的 FIRREA 执法视同马克·吐温治疗儿童口吃的处方:“把下颌去掉。”
但我们看法不同,尽管 FIRREA 也让我们深受其害。我们觉得这个体系需要新的规则,由强硬的“保安”来执行,而且“保安”工作只要足够卖力,就难免会波及一些不该受罚的人。甚至可能有一些“友好交火”的伤亡。尽管如此,这个过程必须继续下去。
我们关心的是最重要的问题:通过 FIRREA,我们的立法者,即便抱着“绝不再犯”的心态,到底有没有改正储贷行业最根本的系统性错误?我们认为没有。
尘埃落定之后,最好的储贷机构显然已经是不如最好的银行(银行自己也有很多麻烦)的生意了。这个结论既得到了(1)股票市场价格的印证,也得到了(2)政府清算机构根据市场条件采取的行动的印证。最好的储贷机构的股票现在的价格与账面价值之比,远低于最好的银行。而政府清算机构不断把储贷机构的分支卖给银行,却几乎从不把银行的分支卖给储贷机构。FIRREA 并没有让储贷机构平均而言变得像银行那样对所有者有吸引力。这两种机构类型仍然不一样、不平等,而它们的基本剩余功能却十分相近——既然房利美和房地美存在,承担了支持住房金融功能的最大份额。
在现代,政府总是大型净借款人的背景下,储贷体系仍然试图用短期储蓄账户去为长期住房贷款融资。这本质上是个非常糟糕的主意,违反了一条基本原则的逻辑:“一件事如果不值得做,那就不值得把它做好。”
当然,现在通过鼓励浮动利率贷款,人们试图部分修复系统性的期限错配风险。但浮动利率贷款通常会把利率上升幅度“封顶”在几个百分点之内,这是为了中等收入借款人所必需的,既是为了防止(1)不可接受的困难,也是为了防止(2)非住房支出突然下降。这种妥协就像加州建筑规范只按里氏地震 5 级来设防一样。几乎可以肯定,这个妥协在未来的某个遥远时点,会再次引发储贷行业的可怕崩溃。
说到这里,我们并非在批评加州最好的储贷机构,比如 Home Savings、Great Western Savings 和 World Savings。这些机构有合乎逻辑的运营方式,但背负着一个长期参与者无法回避的重大系统性风险。如果我们必须在现行规则下永远玩下去,我们会试图模仿它们。但我们会有一个巨大劣势:“我们不知道怎么从这儿走到那儿,”因为它们在系统,尤其是在贷款发放方面,有如此强大的惯性。幸好,没人判我们必须在一个有系统性风险且我们处于巨大劣势的游戏里永远玩下去。相反,我们用一个不同的、可以接受的“那里”来应付一下,其形式结合了(1)大量持有房地美的股票,以及(2)能让我们根据新条件灵活调整的财务弹性。
嘲讽、悲观的猜测以及为我们缺陷找的借口就说到这里吧——这些东西总是很容易找。像任何有责任心的灾难预言家一样,我们现在要冒着当众出丑的风险,来说说如果我们是国会,我们会怎么处理银行/货币市场基金/储蓄贷款体系:
(1)因为我们有帮助住房的倾向,我们会保留政府对中低收入人群的住房金融支持。我们会通过强制养老基金将其资产的相当一部分,以房地美和房利美发行的、代表固定利率抵押贷款权益的抵押贷款支持证券的形式,配置在住房相关资产上。
Renroduced from 1090 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation and whistles in the form of new bank powers. This outcome is roughly what is recommended by the banking lobby, which has evidently learned nothing from the history of the savings and loan laws. legislators were so outraged that they attempted what they thought was extreme reform: FIRREA. This Let us next turn to the savings and loan field. Here, faced with a more disastrous mess, the legislation took a "back-to-basics" approach and has since been interpreted by regulators who seem to believe, understandably, that they must act as though they were tough "bouncers," given the job of bringing order to a drunken braw! (a description that understates what the regulators faced). keep institutions healthy. Most executives we know at other associations concentrate only on the This regulatory approach is now squeezing out (1) much folly, and (2) some non-folly needed to present FIRREA enforcement as the equivalent of Mark Twain's prescription for preventing children's negative side and are outraged at instances of regulatory elimination of non-folly. They tend to construe stuttering: "Remove the lower jaw." new rules, interpreted by tough "bouncers," and that the "bouncing" process, done with sufficient vigor, Our view is different, even though we are much harmed by FIRREA. We think the system needed fire." Nonetheless, the process must go on. inevitably involves some lumps for the undeserving. There may even be some deaths from "friendly with their "never again" mindset, fix the most important systemic error in the savings and loan industry? What concerns us is the most important question of all. Did our legislators, through FIRREA, even We think not. the best banks (which themselves have plenty of troubles). This conclusion is supported by both As the dust has cleared, the best savings and loan associations are clearly worse businesses than Stocks of the best associations now sell at much lower price / book-value ratios than stocks of the best (1) stock market prices and (2) action of governmental liquidators in response to market conditions. banks. And governmental liquidators are constantly selling association branches to banks while almost desirable for owners as banks. The two institutional types remain different and unequal, while quite never selling bank branches to associations. FIRREA has not made associations, on average, as comparable in essential residual function, now that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exist to perform a lion's share of the finance function supporting housing. borrower, still tries to use short-term savings accounts to finance long-term housing lending. This is, in The savings and loan system, in a modern era in which the government is always a large net essence, a very bad idea, violating the logic of an elementary prescription: "If a thing isn't worth doing at all, it isn't worth doing well." of variable-rate loans. But the variable-rate loans typically "cap" interest rate escalation at a few To be sure, some fix of systemic maturity-mismatch risk is now attempted, through encouragement percentage points, which must be done for moderate-income borrowers to prevent both (1) unaccept- able hardship and (2) sudden falls in non-housing spending. This compromise is like having building codes in California protect only up to 5 points on the Richter earthquake scale. The compromise is almost sure to bring back, probably at a remote date, another horrible collapse of the savings and loan Western Savings and World Savings. These people have logical operations bearing one big systemic As we say this, we are not critical of the best California associations, such as Home Savings, Great would try to imitate them. But we would have a big disadvantage: "we don't know how to get there from risk that cannot be avoided by permanent players. If we had to plav forever under current rules, we one is sentencing us to play forever in a game with a systemic risk we don't like and in which we are at a here,"because they have such momentum in systems, particularly in loan origination. Fortunately, no big disadvantage. Instead, we have temporized with a different, acceptable "there" in a form combining (1) a big holding of Freddie Mac, with (2) financial flexibility to adapt as we choose to new conditions. As any responsible calamity-howler should, we will now risk playing the fool in public by attempting to So much for ridicule, pessimistic speculations, and excuses for our defects, always easy to provide. say what we would do with the bank/money-market fund/savings and loan system if we were Congress: (1) Because we have a help-housing bias, we would keep government-assisted housing finance for low-to-moderate-income people. We would do this by forcing pension funds to maintain a significant portion of their assets in housing-related assets in the form of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae mortgage-backed securities representing interests in fixed-rate mortgages. This 67
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
考虑到养老基金享有的免税待遇,我们认为这一要求是公平的。养老基金之所以是住房融资的合理提供者,是因为它们天然具备:(a)巨额资产;(b)期限与房主对长期固定利率信贷需求相匹配的负债。我们之所以指定房利美和房地美证券作为住房援助的渠道,是基于我们的信念,即这些实体能够比任何政府官僚机构更好、更廉价地保证贷款质量。从数量角度看,我们原本会赢得声誉,并让住房融资获得比现在更多的援助,尤其是对首次购房者而言,他们……
(2)我们会将银行、货币市场基金和储蓄贷款协会合并为一个拥有受保存款的单一银行体系。新银行体系将与以下两者分离:(a)实业;(b)可能让投资者失望的那部分投资银行业务。该体系将具有如下特征:
(i)设立一个同时充当存款保险人的联邦监管机构,以取代我们现行监管和保险体系中极其疯狂、低效的巴尔干化格局。(消除巴尔干化不仅能降低成本、延误、混乱和监管宽松竞赛。把存款保险赔付方和银行控制损失防范方合为一体,在制度设计上具有优势。体系的组织应尽可能做到,由决策者而非他人承担决策后果。这样一来,体系便更具弗兰克尔意义上的“责任感”,要求决策者承担决策后果。)
(ii)不允许设立银行控股公司,但新银行将垄断签发支票、提供借记卡和信用卡的业务,除非信用卡是代表单一卖方发行的。(新法律将允许现有银行、新设银行和非银行机构进行免税分拆,以帮助现有公司达标。分拆后的非银行机构可包括专门向企业发放高利率贷款的机构。)
(iii)由政府监管机构实施的弹性管控,将对银行账户可以支付的利息设定上限。(如果你要对整个行业的信用提供担保,那么可取竞争就应有一定限度。此外,许多银行在承受极端成本压力时——这种压力并非正常经营环境所致,而是当竞争对手全都通过政府存款保险获得无上限融资时出现的——会在其重要职能上行为失当。)
(iv)所有满足监管要求的资本都必须以股票形式存在,无论是普通股还是优先股,但已受“祖父条款”保护的债务除外。
(v)证券经纪商(及其他机构)可以为客户购买他们想要的任意数量的受保存单,这些存单由签发存单的银行提供;但他们不得因此获得佣金或其他好处。(我们的座右铭是:“滥用则失权。”)
(vi)联邦监管机构将拥有明确的权力,可在无需过多“正当程序”或“事后质疑”的情况下,在银行资不抵债之前就关闭弱质银行,或强制其出售、合并。收到首次警告后,银行通常可以通过“配股”或其他方式筹集新资本,以避免这类灾难。(这种制度并非新鲜事物。在证券和货币交易商的监管实践中,在远未达到资不抵债之前即发出清盘令,早已是标准做法。)
(vii)凡以任何目的使用的银行会计,均须在产生收入的交易中所有重大风险已被消除之后,才能将大部分收入确认为利润。银行的股息自然也只能来自以更保守方式报告的利润。按照这一新保守会计要求所递延的收入,其所得税也相应递延。(试图用只有大棒没有胡萝卜的方法来控制重要行为,是一个可怕的错误,一个新手才会犯的错误。因此,提供税收递延这一“胡萝卜”是明智的做法。)
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation requirement strikes us as fair, given the tax exemption possessed by the pension funds. And (a) massive assets, and (b) liabilities with maturities matching homeowners' needs for long- the pension funds are the logical suppliers of housing finance because they by nature have term, fixed-rate credit. Our reason for specifying Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securities as a and more cheaply than would any government bureaucracy. In quantitative terms, we would conduit for housing assistance is our belief that these entities would assure loan quality better have won their spurs. leave housing finance more assisted than it is now, particularly for first-time home buyers who (2) We would merge the banks, money-market funds and savings and loan associations into one banking system, with insured deposits. The new banking system would be separate from both the following characteristics: (a) industry and (b) the part of investment banking likely to disappoint investors. It would have (i) There would be one federal regulator that also served as deposit-insurer, in lieu of the truly crazy, inefficient Balkanization of our present regulatory and insurance apparatus. (Eliminating Balkanization would do more than reduce costs, delays, confusion and insurance loss payer and the bank-controlling loss preventer one and the same. The competition in laxity. There is a system-design advantage in making the deposit- systems be organized, to the extent feasible, so that decision-makers, not others, bear system then becomes more "responsible" in the Frankelian sense, requiring that consequences of decisions.) (i) There would be no bank-holding companies, but the new banks would have a monopoly offered on behalf of a single vendor. (The new law would permit tax-free spinoffs of in offering check-writing privileges, debit cards and credit cards, except for credit cards come into compliance. Spun-off non-banks could include specialists in high-interest-rate existing banks, newly organized banks, and non-banks to help existing corporations lending to businesses.) (iii) Flexible, government-regulator-run controls would set a ceiling on interest that could be there is a limit to the competition that is desirable. Besides, many banks will behave badly paid on bank accounts. (If you are going to guarantee the credit of an entire industry, in their important function when they are under the extreme cost pressure, not normal in government, through deposit insurance.) business, that occurs when one's competitors are all financed without limit by the (iv) All capital satisfying regulatory requirements would have to be in the form of stock, either common or preferred, except for "grandfathered" debt. (v) Stockbrokers (and others) could buy for customers all the insured certificates of deposit from the banks issuing the certificates. (Abuse it and lose it," is our motto.) they wished, but they could not, in exchange, receive commissions or other advantages (vi) The federal regulator would have clear power, exercisable without an excess of "due process" or "second guessing, before they became insolvent. Banks could ordinarily avoid such calamities, after a first " to close out or force sale or merger of weak banks well nothing novel in such a system. Close-out orders, issued well short of insolvency, have warning, by raising new capital through "rights" issues, or in some other way. (There is long been standard practice under regulatory practice governing securities and currency traders.) (vii) Bank accounting for all purposes would count much revenue as profit only after all dividends, of course, could be paid only from the more conservatively reported profits. significant risk had been removed from the transactions generating the revenues. Bank tism in accounting. (It is a terrible mistake, a novice's mistake, to try to control important Income tax would be deferred on the deferred revenues required by this new conserva- behavior with an all-stick-and-no-carrot approach. Therefore, the carrot-providing tax deferment would be wise.) 68
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
(八)将不会有长达 2000 页的政府法规,但会针对商业和不动产贷款设置一些规则,比如:你尽可自行放贷,但除非有充足的权益资本支撑,否则新贷款不得计入银行资产——这一规定将构筑巨大的安全边际。
(九)存款保险费率应立即在现有水平上降低,但须纳入一套新的、极为严格的体制,如此一来,即使考虑了费率降低的影响,存款保险机构的损失风险仍会下降。
(十)整个体系的设计目标是让最好的企业——无论大小——再次与最好的银行亲密无间。银行将再次专注于成为:(1)向优质企业发放相对低利率贷款的贷款人;(2)“财政瘾君子”之外的消费者。向信用薄弱者发放高利率贷款的业务,将被强制归入与银行既无共同管理层也无共同办公场所联系的非银行体系之内。
毫无疑问,我们的建议有很多不足之处。但现有体系同样有诸多弊端——它促使银行优先事项发生了可疑的转变,造成了一团糟的局面,且大有可能愈演愈烈。相比之下,历史上几乎没有依据表明我们的建议会同样糟糕。即便新体制存在严重缺陷,它也很可能是一个更好的中途站,通往一个配得上伟大国家的银行体系。
近年来,政府试图通过让银行业承担日益加重的竞争性负担来维持一个有用且相对无问题的银行体系;当体系因此表现得更糟时,政府又双管齐下,既加重其负担,又扩大其被许可的活动范围。经过这类修改,体系的表现愈发糟糕。显然,是时候颠覆我们的做法了。我们应该像炮兵军官那样行事:当他一发炮弹打过了目标,下一发就会瞄准近处打;如果打近了,接下来就瞄准远处——他朝近处打,其实是期望最终能击中目标。
有人或许会担心,在我们推荐的体系下,银行业可能会变得过于有利可图。对此担忧,有三个回答:
(1)利润前景更好、风险更低,往往会(a)减少政府损失,因为联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)正在出售价值数十亿美元的被查封储贷机构和银行资产;(b)使政府能通过严格的资本标准,促使股东踊跃注入银行业资本——而这正是当前之急需。
(2)根据过往经验,这个国家的银行家们(包括我们)平均而言,或许胜任“不赚取超额利润”这一挑战,即便在一个更宽松的体系下。
(3)即便真的出现了超额利润,政府也可适时通过新设税收、收费或负担,轻松将其削减。
我们现在将立法改革的事务交还给以此为业的人。我们也向西科股东保证,本致股东信中这一充满改革意识的章节,是一次不太可能重演的离题。其成因部分在于:(1)对现状极深的厌恶;(2)撰写者与一位古怪人物长期交往,此人或许并不完全赞同此处表达的所有观点,但鼓励这类写作。
这位古怪的人掌管着西科的母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦,他出于某种理由认定,积累的财富绝不应花在自己或家人身上,而应在捐献给慈善事业之前,仅仅用作某种生活方式的例证和说教的平台——不仅生前如此,死后亦然。这些用途,连同用于把这个平台垒得更高,被视为仅有的体面用途。借此,通过我们在本节中所做的示范,特此提醒继续与如此奇特之人相伴的股东:这家伙的某些怪癖具有传染性,至少若长久为伍便是如此。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation (vill) There would be no 2,000-page mass of government regulations. But there would be some rule for business and real estate loans such as: loan as you wish, but no new loans count as bank assets unless supported by substantial equity, a stipulation that would create a large margin of safety. (ix) Deposit-insurance rates would promptly be lowered from present levels, but under a new system so tough that risk of loss to the deposit insurer would be reduced, even after taking into account the effects from lower rates. (x) The whole system would be designed to have the best businesses, small and large, again become intimate with the best banks. The banks would again concentrate on being consumers who are not "fiscaholics". High-interest-rate lending, to people with weak (1) relatively low-interest-rate lenders to high-quality businesses, and (2) lenders to credit, would be forced into non-banking systems retaining no common-management or common-premises links with banking. present system, which has helped cause a questionable shift in banking priorities and a big mess, with There is, no doubt, much wrong with our recommendations. But there is also much wrong with our recommendations would be as bad. And even if the new system had serious faults, it would probably be every prospect for more of the same. In contrast, there is little in history to suggest that our a better way station on the path to a banking system befitting a great country. In recent years the government has tried to maintain a useful, relatively trouble-free banking system responded by working worse, the government has increased both the burdens and the permitted scope by making the banking business bear increased competitive burdens, and, when the system has of banks' activities. After such revisions the system has again worked worse. Surely it is time to reverse tries to put a shell clearly short, expecting to get the desired result in due course. our approach. We should act like the artillery officer who, when he has put one shell over the target, next To this worry there are three answers: Some people might worry that banking would get too profitable under the system we recommend. (1) The prospect of better profits, with less risk, would tend to (a) reduce governmental losses as many billions of dollars worth of foreclosed thrift and bank assets are sold off by the FDIC, and tation of banking capital by shareholders, precisely what is needed. (b) enable the government, through tough capital standards, to cause eager private augmen- (2) Based on past experience, the nation's bankers (including us) may, on average, be up to the challenge of not earning excessive profits, even in an easier system. (3) If excessive profits came, they could easily be reduced in due course by a new governmental We now quitclaim legislative reform to those who make it their business. We also assure Wesco tax, charge or burden. shareholders that this reform-minded section of our letter to shareholders is an unlikely-to-be-repeated aberration. It was caused, in part, by a combination of (1) overwhelming disgust with the present scene, and (2) long association by the writer with an eccentric fellow who may not share all the notions herein expressed but who encourages this kind of writing. reason that accumulated wealth should never be spent on oneself or one's family, but instead should This eccentric, who heads Berkshire Hathaway, Wesco's parent corporation, believes for some merely serve, before it is given to charity, as an example of a certain approach to life and as a didactic not only during life but also after death. Shareholders who continue in such peculiar company are hereby platform. These uses, plus use in building the platform higher, are considered the only honorable ones warned by our example in writing this section: some of the eccentricities of this fellow are contagious, at least if association is long continued. 69
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摘自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
合并资产负债表及相关讨论
西科公司的合并资产负债表(1)保持着一种与其大量对外承诺相匹配的稳健实力,(2)反映出业务收购的节奏持续缓慢——尽管我们一直在寻找,但几乎找不到从西科股东角度看价格合理的公司。
正如随附财务报表所示,西科公司权益类有价证券的市值总额比 1990 年 12 月 31 日的账面总值高出约 4600 万美元,较一年前的约 9800 万美元大幅下降。所有有价证券(包括债券及其他固定收益证券)的合并市值总额比账面总值高出约 6130 万美元。正如此前强调的,其中约 5620 万美元的未实现增值来自房地美股票。
上述段落仅涉及证券市值高于“账面价值”的未实现增值部分。西科还有一部分证券的未实现增值已直接计入“账面价值”。这是因为西科的保险子公司截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日持有约 4090 万美元的普通股增值(主要是可口可乐公司股票)。根据一项仅适用于保险公司的奇特会计准则,这部分增值在扣除如果股票出售应缴纳的所得税后,已直接包含在西科经审计的净资产中,尽管这笔收益从未出现在任何经审计的损益表上。
如西科财务报表附表一所示,投资——无论是储蓄贷款子公司和保险子公司的投资,还是暂时持有待售的投资——都倾向于高度集中在极少数标的上。通过这种集中投资的做法,我们试图更好地理解自己所做出的为数不多的几个决策。*
西科公司在帕萨迪纳的房地产包括一整片街区,其中有(1)约 12.5 万平方英尺的一流可出租净面积(包括互助储蓄银行自用部分),位于一栋现代化办公楼内,以及(2)额外约 3.4 万平方英尺经济上已边缘化的旧楼可出租净面积,这些旧楼恐怕拆掉比修缮更明智。该房地产的市场价值大幅高于其账面价值。未实现增值的存在体现在以下两方面:(1)针对该房地产的抵押贷款债务(截至 1990 年 12 月 31 日为 452.4 万美元,固定利率 9.25%)超过西科资产负债表中该房产的折旧后账面价值(316.3 万美元),以及(2)扣除抵押贷款债务服务后,该房产每年能为西科带来可观的净现金流(约 100 万美元)。尽管市场环境不佳,这栋现代化办公楼的出租率仍高达 99%。
- 将西科的做法(刻意不分散投资,试图提高每笔交易的质量)与迈克尔·米尔肯多年来推销垃圾债券时鼓吹的做法进行对比,很有意思。米尔肯的做法,得到了许多金融学教授理论的支持,主张:(1)在一个投资者承担波动性(即大幅价格波动)就能获得额外补偿的世界里,市场价格是有效的;(2)因此,垃圾债券新发时的定价,从概率角度看是公允的(意思是高承诺利率足以覆盖更高的统计预期损失率),并且还提供了一定的溢价回报来补偿波动风险;(3)因此,如果一家储蓄贷款协会(或其他机构)安排分散化投资,比如不加太多审查就大量买入米尔肯每次新发行的垃圾债券,那么这家机构就会自动进入赌场老板那种“稳赚不赔”的境地,因为赌场本身具有“庄家优势”。这套理论如今已在那些深信不疑的机构中引发了灾难,这些机构通过大量买入米尔肯的“债券”来执行其结论。与理论相反,广泛分散地买入此类“债券”,在大多数情况下都带来了惨淡的结果。我们都能理解米尔肯为什么会那样做,以及他必须相信什么才能维持一个可以忍受的自我形象。但我们如何解释,为什么其他人会相信米尔肯拿着 5% 的佣金,把“债券”买家推到了相当于拉斯维加斯赌场庄家的位置上?我们推测原因如下:许多愚蠢的买家及其顾问,被那些把心爱的模型(有效市场理论和现代投资组合理论)推行得太远的金融学教授所误导,同时忽略了本应警示危险的其他模型。正如我们之前指出的,这是一种常见的“专家”错误。
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation Consolidated Balance Sheet and Related Discussion net worth supports large outstanding promises to others and (2) reflects a continuing slow pace of Wesco's consolidated balance sheet (1) retains a strength befitting a company whose consolidated acquisition of additional businesses because few are found available, despite constant search, at prices deemed rational from the standpoint of Wesco shareholders. marketable equity securities was higher than their aggregate carrying value at December 31, 1990 by As indicated in the accompanying financial statements, the aggregate market value of Wesco's about $46 million, down significantly from about $98 million one year earlier. The consolidated aggregate aggregate carrying value by about $61.3 million. As earlier emphasized, about $56.2 million of this market value of all marketable securities, including bonds and other fixed-income securities, exceeded appreciation in stock of Freddie Mac. unrealized appreciation lies within the savings and loan subsidiary and includes $45.3 million of value." Wesco also has some unrealized appreciation in securities that is already in "carrying value." The foregoing paragraph deals only with unrealized appreciation of securities above "carrying million in appreciation in common stocks (mostly stock of The Coca-Cola Company). Under a peculiar This has happened because Wesco's insurance subsidiary at December 31, 1990 had about $40.9 taxes that would be due if the stocks were sold, is already included in Wesco's audited net worth, even accounting convention applicable only to insurance companies, this appreciation, minus the income though the gain has never passed through any audited report of income. the savings and loan and insurance subsidiaries and those held temporarily elsewhere pending sale to As indicated in Schedule I accompanying Wesco's financial statements, investments, both those in fund business concentration of investments, we seek to better understand the few decisions we make.* extension, tend to be concentrated in very few places. Through this practice of rentable square feet, including Mutual Savings' space, in a modern office building, plus (2) an additional Wesco's Pasadena real estate comprises a full block containing (1) about 125,000 first-class net be wiser to destroy than improve. This real estate has a market value substantially in excess of carrying net rentable 34,000 square feet of economically marginal space in old buildings, which it would probably 9.25% fixed) against this real estate exceeding its depreciated carrying value ($3,163,000) in Wesco's value. The existence of unrealized appreciation is demonstrated by (1) mortgage debt ($4,524,000 at year) to Wesco after debt service on the mortgage. The modern office building is 99% rented, despite a balance sheet at December 31, 1990, and (2) substantial current net cash flow (about $1 million per
- It is interesting to compare Wesco's approach (deliberate non-diversification of investments in an attempt to
bonds. The Milken approach, supported by theories of many finance professors, argued that (1) market be more skillful per transaction) with an approach promoted for years by Michael Milken to help sell junk outcomes); (2) therefore, the prices at which new issues of junk bonds came to market were fair in a prices were efficient in a world where investors get paid extra for enduring volatility (wide of loss) and also provided some premium return to cover volatility exposure; and (3) therefore, if a savings probabilistic sense (meaning that the high promised interest rates covered increased statistical expectancy and loan association (or other institution) arranged diversification, say, by buying, without much examination, better-than-average-results position of a gambling a large part of each new Milken issue of junk bonds, the association would work itself into the sure to-get- theorizing has now wreaked havoc at institutions, governed by true-believers, which backed their conclusions house proprietor with a "house" edge. This type of by buying Milken's "bonds." Contrary to the theorizing, widely diversified purchases of such bonds" have in he had to believe in order to maintain an endurable self-image. But how can we explain why anyone else most cases produced dismal results. We can all understand why Milken behaved as he did and believed what Vegas? We suggest this cause: many of the foolish buyers, and their advisers, were trained by finance believed that Milken was paid 5% commissions to put "bond" buyers in the position of the house in Las while they ignored other models that would have warned of danger. This is a common type of "expert" error, professors who pushed beloved models efficient market theory and modern portfolio theory) way too far, as we have earlier indicated. 70
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摘录自西科金融公司 1990 年年报
帕萨迪纳市写字楼大量空置。我们收取略低于标准水平的租金,把大楼办成一种面向我们欣赏的租户的一流俱乐部。凭借这些做法、优越的地理位置和一流的停车设施,我们预计未来现金流会增加,但 1991 年和 1992 年不会。未来两年对大多数商业地产持有者来说,不太可能是好年份。
西科金融在总债务与总股东权益的对比上保持审慎立场,并珍惜其 AA 信用评级。
公司避免在无明确需要时进行长期借款,以保持最大的财务灵活性,应对各种风险和机遇。
预计合并企业的资产负债表实力将适时用于一项或多项业务拓展。这种拓展活动需要耐心,至少对于……
西科金融年度报告的综合净收益与综合股东权益之比(1988-90 年约为 12%),在很大程度上依赖于证券收益,这类收益本身就不稳定。
当伯克希尔·哈撒韦在 1973 年买入西科金融股票时,目前这只股票(经后来三对一拆股调整后)的交易价格约为 6 美元。到 1990 年底,该股票交易价格为 47%,并且在伯克希尔·哈撒韦管理期间,每年都支付适度的股息,且逐年增加。
考虑到复利的力量和总体有利的商业环境,西科金融股东所获得的财务业绩不算差,但也并不出色。而且,经过这么多年,西科金融仍旧(1)资产负债表非常强劲,(2)直接拥有的、具有足够商业优势以确保未来资本回报率持续处于高位的业务却不足。相比之下,母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦的定位要好得多。这一结果已在上年西科金融年报中解释过,我们请新老股东参阅该年报。
1991 年 1 月 24 日,西科金融将常规季度股息从每股 20.5 美分提高到每股 21.5 美分,将于 1991 年 3 月 12 日支付给截至 1991 年 2 月 28 日营业结束时登记在册的股东。
本年度报告包含 Form 10-K(提交给美国证券交易委员会的报告),以及附有详细注释的经审计财务报表。一如既往,恳请您仔细阅读这些内容。
查尔斯·T·芒格
董事会主席
查尔斯·T·芒格
1991 年 3 月 8 日
71
Reproduced from 1990 Annual Report of Wesco Financial Corporation glut of vacant office space in Pasadena. We charge just-below-standard rents and run the building as a sort of first-class club for tenants we admire. With these practices, a prime location and superior parking facilities, we anticipate tuture increases in cash flow, but not in 1991 and 1992. The next two years are not likely to be good years for most owners of commercial real estate. tal liquid assets. Wesco prat be car long-term borrowing in advanc Wesco remains in a prudent position when total debt is compared to total shareholders' equity and values its AAt credit rating. i specific need, in order to have maximum financial flexibility to face both hazards and opportunities. used in one or more business extensions. The extension activity requires patience, at least for people It is expected that the balance sheet strength of the consolidated enterprise will in due course be ers' equity, about 12% in 1988-90, was dependent to a significant extent on securities gains, irregular by The ratio of Wesco's annual reported consolidated net income to reported consolidated sharehold- nature. for-one split) traded at about $6. At yearend 1990, the stock traded at $47% and it has paid modest When Berkshire Hathaway bought into Wesco in 1973, the present stock (adjusted for a later three- dividends, increased every year, during Berkshire Hathaway's stewardship. considering the power of compound interest and the generally favorable business climate. And now, The financial results for Wesco shareholders have not been bad. But they are not outstanding, direct ownership of businesses with enough commercial advantage in place to assure permanent high after all these years, Wesco continues to have (1) a very strong balance sheet, and (2) a shortage of future returns on capital employed. In contrast, the parent company, Berkshire Hathaway, is better positioned. This outcome was explained in Wesco's annual report last year, to which we refer Wesco shareholders, new and old. 21½ cents per share, payable March 12, 1991, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on On January 24, 1991, Wesco increased its regular quarterly dividend from 20½ cents per share to February 28, 1991. and includes detailed information about Wesco and its subsidiaries as well as audited financial This annual report contains Form 10-K, a report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Statements bearing extensive footnotes. As usual, your careful attention is sought with respect to these Charles T manger Chairman of the Board Charles T. Munger March 8, 1991 71
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
过去五年财务数据摘要
(单位:千美元,每股数据除外)
| 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 收入: | |||||
| 销售与服务收入 | $1,219,252 | $1,326,829 | $1,407,642 | $1,526,459 | $2,452,208 |
| 利息与股息收入 | 823,884 | 824,895 | 1,580,074 | 1,224,874 | 2,252,044 |
| 已赚保费 | 181,992 | 220,764 | 237,319 | 131,671 | 1,979,754 |
| 已实现投资收益 | 131,671 | 314,251 | 584,235 | 394,279 | 450,295 |
| 杂项收入 | 13,901 | 7,892 | 6,316 | 28,838 | 33,989 |
| 总收入 | $3,574 | $2,431,782 | $2,464,893 | $2,483,892 | $2,659,472 |
| 利润: | |||||
| 已实现投资收益前利润 | $131,464 | $214,746 | $313,441 | $299,902 | $370,745 |
| 已实现投资收益 | 150,897 | 19,806 | 85,829 | 147,575 | 23,348 |
| 净利润 | $282,361 | $234,552 | $399,270 | $447,477 | $394,093 |
| 每股利润: | |||||
| 已实现投资收益前每股利润 | $131.57 | $187.24 | $273.37 | $127.55 | $323.39 |
| 已实现投资收益 | 114.62 | 17.27 | 74.86 | 262.46 | 20.36 |
| 每股净利润 | $246.19 | $204.51 | $348.23 | $390.01 | $343.75 |
| 年末数据: | |||||
| 定期债务及其他借款 | $4,931,354 | $5,863,235 | $6,816,848 | $9,459,594 | $10,670,423 |
| 总资产 | 2,377,797 | 2,841,659 | 3,410,108 | 1,007,516 | 1,239,358 |
| 已发行普通股(千股) | 260,170 | 289,886 | 480,009 | 4,925,126 | 5,287,454 |
| 股东权益 | 1,147 | 1,147 | 1,146 | 1,146 | 1,146 |
| 每股股东权益 | $2,073 | $2,477 | $2,975 | $4,296 | $4,612 |
普通股
股票转让代理与登记机构
本公司普通股的转让代理与登记机构为波士顿银行股东服务部,地址:P.O. Box 644, Boston, MA 02102。与该部门的通信应寄至客户服务科,邮件停止编号 45-02-09。用于重新发行或过户的股票凭证应寄至过户处理科,邮件停止编号 45-0105。股票凭证不应寄至本公司。
股东
截至 1991 年 3 月 4 日,公司约有 6,800 名普通股在册持有人。在册持有人包括以受益所有人(非登记所有人)身份持有至少 153,000 股的提名机构。管理层认为公司拥有超过 14,000 名受益所有人。
普通股价格范围
本公司普通股在纽约证券交易所上市交易,交易代码:BRK。下表列出各期间纽约证券交易所综合报价表中的每股最高和最低成交价:
| 1990 | 1989 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 最高 | 最低 | 最高 | 最低 | ||
| 第一季度 | $8,725 | $7,675 | 第一季度 | $7,000 | $5,500 |
| 第二季度 | 6,675 | 6,600 | 第二季度 | $5,025 | $4,625 |
| 第三季度 | 7,325 | 5,550 | 第三季度 | 8,750 | 4,950 |
| 第四季度 | 6,900 | 6,600 | 第四季度 | 8,900 | 7,950 |
股息
自 1967 年以来,伯克希尔未宣布过现金股息。
72
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. Selected Financial Data for the Past Five Years (dollars in thousands, except per share data) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Revenues: Sales and service revenues... Interest and dividend income Insurance premiums earned $1,219,252 823,884 $1,326,829 Realized investment gain... 181,992 824,895 $1,407,642 $1,526,459 Sundry.. 220,764 237,319 131,671 314,251 584,235 394,279 $ 1,580,074 331,452 591,540 6,316 28,838 27.094 223,810 450,295 13,901 7,892 33,989 Total revenues. 3,574 $2,452,208 Earnings: $2,431,782 $2,464,893 $2,483,892 $ 2,659,472 Before realized investment gain Realized investment gain... $ 131,464 150,897 $ 214,746 19,806 $ 313,441 85,829 $ 299,902 147,575 $ 370,745 Net earnings... 23,348 $ 282,361 $ 234,552 $ 399,270 $ 447,477 $ Earnings per share: 394,093 Realized investment gain.. Before realized investment gain $ 131.57 114.62 $ 187.24 17.27 $ 273.37 74.86 $ 127.55 262.46 $ 323.39 Net earnings. 20.36 $ 246.19 $ Year-end data: 204.51 $ 348.23 $ 390.01 $ 343.75 Term debt and other borrowings Total assets.... $4,931,354 2,377,797 260,170 $5,863,235 2,841,659 289,886 $6,816,848 3,410,108 480,009 $9,459,594 1,007,516 $10,670,423 Common shares outstanding, Shareholders' equity 4,925,126 1,239,358 5,287,454 Shareholders' equity per in thousands... 1,147 1,147 1,146 1,146 1,146 outstanding share.. $ 2,073 2,477 $ 2.975 4,296 $ 4,612 COMMON STOCK Stock Transfer Agent Registrar for the Company's common stock. Correspondence with the Division may be directed to Customer Service The Bank of Boston Shareholder Services Division, P.O. Box 644, Boston, MA 02102 serves as Transfer Agent and Section, Mail Stop 45-02-09. Certificates for re-issue or transfer should be directed to the Transfer Processing Section, Mail Stop 45-0105. Certificates should not be mailed to the Company. Shareholders nominees holding at least 153,000 shares on behalf of beneficial-but-not-of-record owners. Management believes that The Company had approximalely 6,800 record holders of its common stock at March 4, 1991. Record owners included the Company has more than 14,000 beneficial owners. Price Range of Common Stock following table sets forth the high and low sales prices per share, as reported on the New York Stock Exchange Composite The Company's Common Stock is listed for trading on the New York Stock Exchange, trading symbol: BRK. The List, during the periods indicated: 1990 High Low 1989 Second Quarter First Quarter... $8,725 Third Quarter.. 7,675 $6,675 7,325 6,600 First Quarter. High Low Fourth Quarter. 6,900 5,500 5,550 Third Quarter.. Second Quarter. $5,025 7,000 $4,625 Fourth Quarter. 8,750 4,950 Dividends 8,900 7,950 6,600 Berkshire has not declared a cash dividend since 1967. 72
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
董事会
沃伦·E·巴菲特,董事长
伯克希尔首席执行官
查尔斯·T·芒格,副董事长
《每日日报》公司董事会主席,该公司在加利福尼亚州出版专业报纸
肯尼斯·V·蔡斯
已退休,前伯克希尔纺织业务首席运营官
马尔科姆·G·蔡斯二世
已退休,前伯克希尔董事会主席
J·弗恩·麦肯齐
伯克希尔首席财务官
沃尔特·斯科特二世
彼得·基威特父子公司的董事长兼首席执行官,该公司在全球范围内从事建筑、采矿和包装业务。
高管层
沃伦·E·巴菲特,董事长兼首席执行官
查尔斯·T·芒格,副董事长
罗伯特·H·伯德,副总裁
迈克尔·A·戈德堡,副总裁
斯坦福·利普西,副总裁
J·弗恩·麦肯齐,副总裁兼秘书
马克·D·汉堡,财务主管
丹尼尔·J·贾克西奇,财务总监
罗伯特·M·菲茨西蒙斯,内部审计总监
杰里·W·赫夫顿,税务总监
J·威廉·斯科特,金融资产总监
可应要求提供两册更早的年报致股东信汇编:一册涵盖 1977 年至 1983 年的报告,另一册涵盖 1984 年至 1988 年的报告。
公司收到寄至奥马哈市法纳姆街 3555 号 1440 室(邮编 68131)的请求后,将免费提供单册副本。
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. DIRECTORS WARREN E. BUFFETT, Chairman Chief Executive Officer of Berkshire Chairman of the Board of Directors of CHARLES T. MUNGER, Vice Chairman Daily Journal Corporation, publisher of specialty newspapers in California KENNETH V. CHACE Retired, Former Chief Operating Officer of Textile Operations of Berkshire MALCOLM G. CHACE, JR. Retired, Former Chairman of Berkshire's Board ). VERNE McKENZIE Chief Financial Officer of Berkshire WALTER SCOTT, JR. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Peter Kiewit Sons', Inc., engaged worldwide in construction, mining and packaging. OFFICERS WARREN E. BUFFETT, Chairman and CEO CHARLES T. MUNGER, Vice Chairman ROBERT H. BIRD, Vice President MICHAEL A. GOLDBERG, Vice President STANFORD LIPSEY, Vice President J. VERNE McKENZIE, Vice President, Secretary MARC D. HAMBURG, Treasurer DANIEL J. JAKSICH, Controller ROBERT M. FITZSIMMONS, Director of Internal Auditing JERRY W. HUFTON, Director of Taxes J. WILLIAM SCOTT, Director of Financial Assets One is from reports for 1977 through 1983, the other, from reports for 1984 through 1988. Two compilations of letters from earlier Annual Reports are available upon request. at 3555 Farnam St., Suite 1440, Omaha, NE 68131. Single copies are furnished without charge in response to requests received by the Company
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
总部——内布拉斯加州奥马哈市基威特广场 1440 号,邮编 68131
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. Executive Offices - 1440 Kiewit Plaza, Omaha, Nebraska 68131