致合伙人信(1964-01-18)
巴菲特合伙有限公司
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
基威特广场 810 号
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
内布拉斯加州奥马哈 31 邮区
OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
1964 年 1 月 18 日
我们 1963 年的业绩
1963 年是个好年头。说它好,不是因为我们的年初净资产整体增长了 3,637,167 美元、增幅达 38.7%——尽管对我们这群讲究实际的人来说,能有这样的体验确实令人愉快。它之所以是个好年头,是因为我们的业绩大幅跑赢了我们的基准标尺——道琼斯工业平均指数(以下简称“道指”)。假如我们亏了 20%、道指跌了 30%,这封信开头依然会写“1963 年是个好年头”。无论某一年我们是盈是亏,只要能在足够长的时间里保持对道指的满意优势,我们的长期结果就将令人满意——无论是从财务上还是从理念上讲,都是如此。为将记录更新至最新,下表汇总了道指的逐年表现、合伙基金在向普通合伙人分配前的表现,以及有限合伙人的结果,涵盖巴菲特合伙基金及其前身合伙企业运营以来的所有完整年份:
January 18, 1964 Our Performance in 1963 1963 was a good year. It was not a good year because we had an overall gain of $3,637,167 or 38.7% on our beginning net assets, pleasant as that experience may be to the pragmatists in our group. Rather it was a good year because our performance was substantially better than that of our fundamental yardstick --the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (hereinafter called the “Dow”). If we had been down 20% and the Dow had been down 30%, this letter would still have begun “1963 was a good year.” Regardless of whether we are plus or minus in a particular year, if we can maintain a satisfactory edge on the Dow over an extended period of time, our long term results will be satisfactory -- financially as well as philosophically. To bring the record up to date, the following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation to the general partner, and the limited partners' results for all
涵盖巴菲特合伙基金及其前身合伙企业运营以来的所有完整年份:
full years of BPL's and predecessor partnerships' activities:
年份 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
道指总体回报率 (1) -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.7%
Overall Results From Dow (1) -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.7%
合伙基金业绩 (2) 10.4% 40.9% 25.9% 22.8% 45.9% 13.9% 38.7%
Partnership Results (2) 10.4% 40.9% 25.9% 22.8% 45.9% 13.9% 38.7%
有限合伙人业绩 (3) 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5%
Limited Partners’ Results (3) 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5%
(1) 根据道指每年的价值变动,加上当年持有道指成分股本应获得的股息计算。
(2) 1957–1961 年为各前身有限合伙企业全年运营的合并业绩,已扣除全部费用,但未进行合伙人收益分配或普通合伙人份额划拨。
(3) 1957–1961 年,依据前一栏合伙基金业绩,并按现行合伙协议中普通合伙人的份额划拨约定计算得出。
有限合伙人中有位爱打趣的朋友建议我再增加第四栏,列明普通合伙人的业绩——姑且这么说吧,他同样也跑赢了道指。
下表根据前表计算了累计或复合收益:
年份 1957 1957–58 1957–59
(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. (2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner. (3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement. One wag among the limited partners has suggested I add a fourth column showing the results of the general partner --let's just say he, too, has an edge on the Dow. The following table shows the cumulative or compounded results based on the preceding table: Year 1957 1957 – 58 1957 – 59
道指总体回报率 -8.4% 26.9% 52.3%
Overall Results From Dow -8.4% 26.9% 52.3%
合伙基金业绩 10.4% 55.6% 95.9%
Partnership Results 10.4% 55.6% 95.9%
有限合伙人业绩 9.3% 44.5% 74.7%
Limited Partners’ Results 9.3% 44.5% 74.7%
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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1957–60 1957–61 1957–62 1957–63 年复合增长率
1957 – 60 1957 – 61 1957 – 62 1957 – 63 Annual Compounded Rate
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 95.1% 10.0% 140.6% 251.0% 299.8% 454.5% 27.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 22.3%
42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 95.1% 10.0% 140.6% 251.0% 299.8% 454.5% 27.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 22.3%
看来我们已经圆满完成了七个丰年。在此要向约瑟夫说声抱歉,这次我们打算把圣经的剧本抛在一边。(诺亚那套关于分散投资的理念,我也从来没有过分热衷过。)
更严肃地说,我想强调一点,依我判断,我们如上所示领先道指 17.7 个百分点的战绩,在任何一个长时期内都是不可持续的。能领先 10 个百分点就已经是相当令人满意的成就,即便是微小得多的优势,也能产生可观的收益,这一点后文还会提及。这个观点(只能是一种猜测——无论是有根据的猜测还是无根据的猜测)附带着一个推论:我们必须做好准备,去面对很长一段时间内对道指的优势大幅收窄,并且至少偶尔会有几年,我们的记录会跑输道指(甚至可能输得相当多)。
上面这番说教,大多已经体现在 11 月发给各位的《基本规则》里了,但道理值得重复一遍。
It appears that we have completed seven fat years. With apologies to Joseph we shall attempt to ignore the biblical script. (I've never gone overboard for Noah's ideas on diversification either.) In a more serious vein, I would like to emphasize that, in my judgment; our 17.7 margin over the Dow shown above is unattainable over any long period of time. A ten percentage point advantage would be a very satisfactory accomplishment and even a much more modest edge would produce impressive gains as will be touched upon later. This view (and it has to be guesswork -- informed or otherwise) carries with it the corollary that we must expect prolonged periods of much narrower margins over the Dow as well as at least occasional years when our record will be inferior (perhaps substantially so) to the Dow. Much of the above sermon is reflected in "The Ground Rules" sent to everyone in November, but it can stand repetition.
投资公司
Investment Companies
我们定期把自己的业绩,同两家最大的开放式股票型基金(共同基金,通常将 95% 至 100% 的资金投于普通股)和两家最大的多元化封闭式投资公司作比较。这四家公司——马萨诸塞投资者信托、投资者股票基金、三大陆公司和雷曼公司——合计管理着约 40 亿美元资产,大体可以代表整个规模约 250 亿美元的投资公司行业。在我看来,它们的成绩,与绝大多数管理资金总量大得多的其他投资咨询机构大致相当。下面这张表的用意,是要说明道指作为投资业绩基准并不好对付。仅管理这四家公司的投资高手,每年收取的顾问费就超过 700 万美元,而这在整个行业里只是九牛一毛。这批高薪能人的公开成绩单表明,他们跑出的成绩略逊于道指。我们的投资组合和操作手法,与表中这些投资公司差别很大。不过,多数合伙人若不把钱投在我们的合伙基金里,多半也会投向业绩与这些投资公司相仿的其他工具。因此我认为,它们提供了一个有意义的业绩衡量标准。
We regularly compare our results with the two largest open-end investment companies (mutual funds) that follow a policy of being, typically, 95 -100% invested in common stocks, and the two largest diversified closedend investment companies. These four companies, Massachusetts Investors Trust, Investors Stock Fund, TriContinental Corp. and Lehman Corp. manage about $4 billion and are probably typical of most of the $25 billion investment company industry. My opinion is that their results roughly parallel those of the vast majority or other investment advisory organizations which handle, in aggregate, vastly greater sums. The purpose or this tabulation, which is shown below, is to illustrate that the Dow is no pushover as an index or investment achievement. The advisory talent managing just the four companies shown commands' annual fees of over $7 million, and this represents a very small fraction of the industry. The public batting average of this highly-paid talent indicates they achieved results slightly less favorable than the Dow. Both our portfolio and method of operation differ substantially from the investment companies in the table. However, most partners, as an alternative to their interest in the Partnership would probably have their funds invested in media producing results comparable with investment companies, and I, therefore, feel they offer a meaningful standard of performance.
年度业绩
YEARLY RESULTS
年份 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
马萨诸塞投资者信托 (1) -11.4% 42.7% 9.0% -1.0% 25.6% -9.8% 20.0%
Mass. Inv. Trust (1) -11.4% 42.7% 9.0% -1.0% 25.6% -9.8% 20.0%
投资者股票基金 (1) -12.4% 47.5% 10.3% -0.6% 24.9% -13.4% 16.5%
Investors Stock (1) -12.4% 47.5% 10.3% -0.6% 24.9% -13.4% 16.5%
雷曼 (2) -11.4% 40.8% 8.1% 2.5% 23.6% -14.4% 23.8%
Lehman (2) -11.4% 40.8% 8.1% 2.5% 23.6% -14.4% 23.8%
三大陆 (2) -2.4% 33.2% 8.4% 2.8% 22.5% -10.0% 19.5%
Tri-Cont. (2) -2.4% 33.2% 8.4% 2.8% 22.5% -10.0% 19.5%
道指 -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.7%
Dow -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.7%
有限合伙人 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5%
Limited Partners 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5%
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(1)以资产净值变化加上年内向登记在册持有人的分配计算。(2)1957 至 1962 年数据取自 1963 年版《穆迪银行与金融手册》;1963 年为估算值。
(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year. (2) From 1963 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-62; Estimated for 1963.
复合收益
COMPOUNDED
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
年份 1957 1957 – 58 1957 – 59 1957 – 60 1957 – 61 1957 – 62 1957 – 63 年复合收益率
Year 1957 1957 – 58 1957 – 59 1957 – 60 1957 – 61 1957 – 62 1957 – 63 Annual Compounded Rate
马萨诸塞投资者信托 -11.4% 26.4% 37.8% 36.4% 71.3% 54.5% 85.4% 9.2%
Mass. Inv. Trust -11.4% 26.4% 37.8% 36.4% 71.3% 54.5% 85.4% 9.2%
投资者股票基金 -12.4% 29.2% 42.5% 41.6% 76.9% 53.2% 78.5% 8.6%
Investors Stock -12.4% 29.2% 42.5% 41.6% 76.9% 53.2% 78.5% 8.6%
雷曼
Lehman
三大陆
Tri-Cont.
道指
Dow
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
-11.4% 24.7% 34.8% 38.2% 70.8% 46.2% 81.0% 8.8% -2.4% 30.0% 40.9% 44.8% 77.4% 59.7% 90.8% 9.7% -8.4% 26.9% 52.3% 42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 95.1% 10.0%
-11.4% 24.7% 34.8% 38.2% 70.8% 46.2% 81.0% 8.8% -2.4% 30.0% 40.9% 44.8% 77.4% 59.7% 90.8% 9.7% -8.4% 26.9% 52.3% 42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 95.1% 10.0%
有限合伙人 9.3% 44.5% 74.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 22.3%
Limited Partners 9.3% 44.5% 74.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 22.3%
道指当然是一个无人主动管理的指数,读者或许会觉得奇怪:华尔街那些高高在上的大祭司费尽心机,竟连追上它、乃至打个平手都做不到。可事实摆在眼前,正是如此。而且,这种失败也没法用“投资公司这类机构比道指更保守”来搪塞。上表已经表明,更大范围的研究也印证:这批人管理的普通股组合,平均而言,是随着道指一同下跌的。以熊市中的表现来衡量,我们自己的操作手法,已被证明远比投资公司或投资顾问机构的普通股部分更为稳健。这在过去成立,但对未来显然给不出任何担保。上面这些话听着或许像一剂猛药,但它是作为事实陈述提出的,绝无批评之意。在他们的机构框架之内、打理着数以百亿计的资金,他们能取得的也就只有这样的成绩。要在这套框架里不落俗套,难如登天。因此,这类投资工具的整体记录,注定要与美国企业界的整体记录绑在一起。除少数例外,它们的长处并不在于更出色的成绩、或更强的抗跌能力。在我看来,它们值这份管理费,靠的是操作省心、免去决策之累、自动分散风险,此外——或许也是最要紧的一点——它们还筑起一道屏障,隔开了那种诱惑;有太多想当投资家的人,正是抵不住这种诱惑,去用一些明摆着的下策。
The Dow, of course, is an unmanaged index, and it may seem strange to the reader to contemplate the high priests of Wall Street striving vainly to surpass or even equal it. However, this is demonstrably the case. Moreover, such a failure cannot be rationalized by the assumption that the investment companies et al are handling themselves in a more conservative manner than the Dow. As the table above indicates, and as more extensive studies bear out, the behavior of common stock portfolio managed by this group, on average, have declined in concert with the Dow. By such a test of behavior in declining markets, our own methods of operation have proven to be considerably more conservative than the common stock component of the investment company or investment advisor group. While this has been true in the past, there obviously can be no guarantees about the future. The above may seem like rather strong medicine, but it is offered as a factual presentation and in no way as criticism. Within their institutional framework and handling the many billions of dollars involved, the results achieved are the only ones attainable. To behave unconventionally within this framework is extremely difficult. Therefore, the collective record of such investment media is necessarily tied to the record of corporate America. Their merits, except in the unusual case, do not lie in superior results or greater resistance to decline in value. Rather, I feel they earn their keep by the ease of handling, the freedom from decision making and the automatic diversification they provide, plus, perhaps most important, the insulation afforded from temptation to practice patently inferior techniques which seem to entice so many world-be investors.
复利的乐趣
The Joys of Compounding
现在进入本文最让人心跳加速的部分。去年,为了把复利这件事讲透,我拿伊莎贝拉女王和她的财务顾问开了个玩笑。你们还记得,他们被人忽悠着做成了一桩复利低得离谱的买卖——发现一片新大陆。既然复利这话题听上去这么俗气,我不妨转到艺术领域,给这场讨论添几分雅致。1540 年,法国国王弗朗索瓦一世花了 4,000 埃居买下列奥纳多·达·芬奇的《蒙娜丽莎》。万一有几位没盯着埃居的汇率波动,我换算一下:这 4,000 埃居大约折合 2 万美元。假如弗朗索瓦当时脚踏实地,他(连同他的受托人)能找到一笔税后 6%
Now to the pulse-quickening portion of our essay. Last year, in order to drive home the point on compounding, I took a pot shot at Queen Isabella and her financial advisors. You will remember they were euchred into such an obviously low-compound situation as the discovery of a new hemisphere. Since the whole subject of compounding has such a crass ring to it, I will attempt to introduce a little class into this discussion by turning to the art world. Francis I of France paid 4,000 ecus in 1540 for Leonardo da Vinci’s Mona Lisa. On the off chance that a few of you have not kept track of the fluctuations of the ecu 4,000 converted out to about $20,000. If Francis had kept his feet on the ground and he (and his trustees) had been able to find a 6% after-tax
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的投资,那么这笔财产如今会值一千万亿美元出头。没错,1 千万亿美元,是当前美国国债的 3,000 多倍,全靠这 6% 的复利。我相信,这足以了结我们家里关于“买画算不算投资”的一切争论了。不过,正如我去年所指出的,这里还能引出别的教训。其一是活得久的好处。另一个叫人印象深刻的地方是:复利率哪怕只变动一点点,结果的摆幅也会大得惊人。下表列出了 10 万美元按不同利率复利后的收益:10 年 20 年 30 年
investment, the estate now would be worth something over $1,000,000,000,000,000.00. That's $1 quadrillion or over 3,000 times the present national debt, all from 6%. I trust this will end all discussion in our household about any purchase or paintings qualifying as an investment. However, as I pointed out last year, there are other morals to be drawn here. One is the wisdom of living a long time. The other impressive factor is the swing produced by relatively small changes in the rate of compound. Below are shown the gains from $100,000 compounded at various rates: 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
4% $48,024 $119,111 $224,337 8% $115,892 $366,094 $906,260 12% $210,584 $864,627 $2,895,970 16% $341,143 $1,846,060 $8,484,940
4% $48,024 $119,111 $224,337 8% $115,892 $366,094 $906,260 12% $210,584 $864,627 $2,895,970 16% $341,143 $1,846,060 $8,484,940
很显然,哪怕只是几个百分点的差别,也会对复利(投资)计划的成败产生巨大影响。同样显而易见的是,随着时间拉长,这种影响会像滚雪球一样越滚越大。只要在一段有意义的时间里,巴菲特合伙基金能比主要投资工具领先哪怕不多的几个百分点,它的使命就算尽到了。上表没有列出第 3 页提到的 22.3%,这也许会让一些人失望。当然,这个数字是所得税之前的——那笔税由各位直接缴纳,不由合伙基金承担。可即便把这一点撇开,这样一算也只会证明:以极高的回报率复利本身就是荒唐的想法,哪怕起初本金不大也一样。我的看法是,道指在今后任何一段像样的时间里,都极不可能维持过去七年的复利增速;而且如前所述,我认为我们对道指的领先优势也无法保持在迄今的水平。把这两个假设放在一起,就意味着巴菲特合伙基金今后的平均复利率,会明显低于迄今达成的水平。往迄今的实际业绩里插进一个亏损 30% 的年份(这种年份迟早会来),再给道指配上相应的亏损 40%,那么道指和巴菲特合伙基金的数字,就都更接近长期可实现的区间了。而正如上面那张复利表所暗示的,即便回报率降到这一档,也依然能带来相当令人满意的长期投资成绩。
It is obvious that a variation of merely a few percentage points has an enormous effect on the success of a compounding (investment) program. It is also obvious that this effect mushrooms as the period lengthens. If, over a meaningful period of time, Buffett Partnership can achieve an edge of even a modest number of percentage points over the major investment media, its function will be fulfilled. Some of you may be downcast because I have not included in the above table the rate of 22.3% mentioned on page 3. This rate, of course, is before income taxes which are paid directly by you --not the Partnership. Even excluding this factor, such a calculation would only prove the absurdity of the idea of compounding at very high rates -- even with initially modest sums. My opinion is that the Dow is quite unlikely to compound for any important length of time at the rate it has during the past seven years and, as mentioned earlier, I believe our margin over the Dow cannot be maintained at its level to date. The product of these assumptions would be a materially lower average rate of compound for BPL in the future than the rate achieved to date. Injecting a minus 30% year (which is going to happen from time to time) into our tabulation of actual results to date, with, say, a corresponding minus 40% for the Dow brings both the figures on the Dow and BPL more in line with longer range possibilities. As the compounding table above suggests, such a lowered rate can still provide highly satisfactory long term investment results.
我们的操作方式
Our Method of Operation
每到这个时候,我总免不了犯一种“文字上的精神分裂”。一方面,我知道听众里有一批合伙人,对我们生意的门道很感兴趣。另一方面,也有一批人觉得这些全是天书,巴不得我赶紧搁笔、回去干活。为了两头都不得罪,我在这里只把我们的三类投资粗略勾勒一下;想拿到“博士学位”的,可以翻附录,那里有更详尽的案例。这三类投资,就长期预期回报而言,并无高下之分。我们盼着它们各自在十到十五年的时间里,都能实现比道指高出大约十个百分点这个目标。但具体到某一年,它们的表现会大相径庭,这主要取决于那一年股市大势如何。
At this point I always develop literary schizophrenia. On the one hand, I know that we have in the audience a number of partners to whom details of our business are interesting. We also have a number to whom this whole thing is Greek and who undoubtedly wish I would quit writing and get back to work. To placate both camps, I am just going to sketch briefly our three categories at this point and those who are interested in getting their doctorate can refer to the appendix for extended treatment of examples. Our three investment categories are not differentiated by their expected profitability over an extended period of time. We are hopeful that they will each, over a ten or fifteen year period, produce something like the ten percentage point margin over the Dow that is our goal. However, in a given year they will have violently different behavior characteristics, depending primarily on the type of year it turns out to be for the stock market
大致说来,它们各自的情形如下:
generally. Briefly this is how they shape up:
“将军股”——指一类总体上被低估的股票,主要靠量化标准来判定,但也相当看重定性因素。这类股票往往看不出、甚至根本没有立即上涨的迹象,既不惹眼,也无人捧场。它们唯一拿得出手的,就是价格便宜;也就是说,市场对整家企业的估值,远低于审慎分析所得出的、它对一位私人所有者的价值。请允许我再强调一遍:
“Generals” - A category of generally undervalued stocks, determined primarily by quantitative standards, but with considerable attention also paid to the qualitative factor. There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement. The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship. Their main qualification is a bargain price; that is, an overall valuation on the enterprise substantially below what careful analysis indicates its value to a private owner to be. Again let me emphasize that
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量化虽然排在第一位、也是根本,但定性同样重要。我们喜欢好的管理层——喜欢像样的行业——也喜欢原本一潭死水的管理层或股东群体里,出现些许“骚动”。但我们要的是价值。将军股这一类,走势与道指高度合拍,在道指大跌的年份,它们会交出一份巨亏的成绩单。反过来,在强劲的牛市里,它理应是最亮眼的角色。当然,年复一年下来,我们指望它相对道指跑出一个令人满意的超额收益。
“套利股”——这是一批带时间表的证券。它们源自公司层面的动作——整体出售、合并、重组、分拆等等。这一类里,我们说的不是关于这类动作的传闻或“内幕消息”,而是已公开宣布的行动。我们要等到能在报纸上读到它才动手。这里的风险,主要不在于大盘的整体走势(尽管有时也多少沾点边),而在于半路杀出某个变故,使预期中的进展落了空。这类扫兴的意外,可能包括反垄断或其他不利的政府行动、股东否决、税务裁定被搁置等等。许多套利的毛利看着相当微薄。一位朋友把这形容成:别人先赚走前九十五美分,你再去捡最后那一枚镍币。然而,可预测性再配上较短的持有期,就能产出相当不错的年化回报率。这一类每年带来的绝对利润,比将军股更稳。在市场下跌的年份,它为我们攒下一大截优势;在牛市里,它则拖了业绩的后腿。放到长期看,我预期它能取得与将军股相同水平的、相对道指的超额收益。
“控股股”——这类机会很罕见,可一旦出现,往往块头不小。除非一上来就买进一大笔股票,否则控股股都是从将军股演变而来的。它们出自这样一种局面:一只便宜的证券,价格上迟迟毫无起色,久到我们得以买下这家公司相当比例的股份。到了那一步,我们大概已处在能对公司事务施加某种程度、乃至完全掌控的位置上;至于是主动出击还是相对被动,则取决于我们对公司前景和管理层能力的判断。近几个月我们买得最凶的那只将军股,管理层非常出色,所推行的政策在我们看来也十分在理。倘若我们持续买进,将来某一刻真让我们坐上了控股的位子,那么对这门生意的经营,我们多半会保持相当被动。我们不想为了活跃而活跃。在其他条件相同的情况下,我宁可让别人去操劳。可一旦需要主动出手、才能让资本发挥到极致,那你尽可放心,我们绝不会袖手旁观。无论主动还是被动,在控股这类情形里,利润本该是内嵌其中的。这套操作的先决条件,是一个诱人的买入价。一旦控股到手,我们这笔投资的价值,就由企业本身的价值决定,而不再受市场那常有的非理性摆布。我们既愿意、也有财力去谋求控股地位,这就让我们在将军股里的许多买入上,进可攻退可守。市场若转念看好,证券价格自会上扬;市场若不买账,我们便继续增持,直到能靠企业本身、而非市场,来印证我们的判断。控股股的投资成绩,至少要以数年为尺度来衡量。像样的买入需要时间。若有需要,加强管理层、重新配置资本、或许再促成一桩令人满意的出售或合并等等,也统统是让这门生意得按年、而非按月来衡量的因素。正因如此,在控股股上,我们要的是宽裕的利润空间——只要看着有点悬,我们就放手。
while the quantitative comes first and is essential, the qualitative is important. We like good management - we like a decent industry - we like a certain amount of “ferment” in a previously dormant management or stockholder group. But we demand value. The general group behaves very much in sympathy with the Dow and will turn in a big minus result during a year of substantial decline by the Dow. Contrarywise, it should be the star performer in a strongly advancing market. Over the years we expect it, of course, to achieve a satisfactory margin over the Dow. “Workouts” - These are the securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity - sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or "inside information" pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc. The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. A friend refers to this as getting the last nickel after the other fellow has made the first ninety-five cents. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent annual rates of return. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline, it piles up a big edge for us; during bull markets, it is a drag on performance. On a long term basis, I expect it to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals. “Controls” - These are rarities, but when they occur they are likely to be of significant size. Unless we start off with the purchase of a sizable block or stock, controls develop from the general category. They result from situations where a cheap security does nothing price-wise for such an extended period of time that we are able to buy a significant percentage of the company's stock. At that point we are probably in a position to assume some degree of, or perhaps complete, control of the company's activities; whether we become active or remain relatively passive at this point depends upon our assessment of the company’s future and the management's capabilities. The general we have been buying the most aggressively in recent months possesses excellent management following policies that appear to make very good sense to us. If our continued buying puts us in a controlling position at some point in the future, we will probably remain very passive regarding the operation or this business. We do not want to get active merely for the sake of being active. Everything else being equal I would much rather let others do the work. However, when an active role is necessary to optimize the employment of capital you can be sure we will not be standing in the wings. Active or passive, in a control situation there should be a built-in profit. The sine qua non of this operation is an attractive purchase price. Once control is achieved, the value of our investment is determined by the value of the enterprise, not the oftentimes irrationalities of the marketplace. Our willingness and financial ability to assume a controlling position gives us two-way stretch on many purchases in our group of generals. If the market changes its opinion for the better, the security will advance in price. If it doesn't, we will continue to acquire stock until we can look to the business itself rather than the market for vindication of our judgment. Investment results in the control category have to be measured on the basis of at least several years. Proper buying takes time. If needed, strengthening management, re-directing the utilization of capital, perhaps effecting a satisfactory sale or merger, etc., are also all factors that make this a business to be measured in years rather than months. For this reason, in controls, we are looking for wide margins of profit-if it looks at all close, we pass.
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处在买入阶段的控股股,走势大体与道指同步;到了后期,其表现则更接近套利股。正如我过去所说,我们的投资组合在这三类之间如何分配,很大程度上是由机会碰巧出现与否决定的。因此,在道指下跌的年份,我们手里主要是将军股还是套利股,很大程度上要看运气,但这又会极大左右我们相对道指的表现。这也正是为什么,单一年份的成绩无足轻重、无论好坏都不该太当真的诸多理由之一。倘若随着资产增长会冒出什么趋势,我预计它会偏向控股股——这一类迄今在我们组合里占比最小。这个预期也可能落空——当然,很大程度上取决于市场今后的走势,而在这件事上,你的猜测和我一样靠得住(我压根就没有猜测)。写这封信时,我们大部分资金押在将军股,套利股居次,控股股排第三。
Controls in the buying stage move largely in sympathy with the Dow. In the later stages their behavior is geared more to that of workouts. As I have mentioned in the past, the division of our portfolio among the three categories is largely determined by the accident or availability. Therefore, in a minus year for the Dow, whether we are primarily in generals or workouts is largely a matter of luck, but it will have a great deal to do with our performance relative to the Dow. This is one or many reasons why a single year's performance is of minor importance and, good or bad, should never be taken too seriously. If there is any trend as our assets grow, I would expect it to be toward controls which heretofore have been our smallest category. I may be wrong in this expectation - a great deal depends, of course, on the future behavior of the market on which your guess is as good as mine (I have none). At this writing, we have a majority of our capital in generals, workouts rank second, and controls are third.
杂项
Miscellaneous
我们今年的期初净资产是 17,454,900 美元。资产迅猛增长,总会引出一个问题:这会不会稀释未来的业绩?到目前为止,合伙基金的规模,与它对道指的领先幅度之间,正相关多于负相关。不过这不能太当真。资金变大,有时是优势,有时是拖累。我的看法是,就算我们的资产只有 100 万或 500 万美元,眼下这个组合也没法做得更好。我们的点子库存,似乎一直比银行存款多出 10%。哪天这情况变了,你们准能收到我的信。苏西和我在合伙基金里投了 2,392,900 美元。今年我头一回不得不在每月支取之外另抽资金——但摆在面前的选择,要么这么办,要么让国税局失望。苏西和我手头还留着几笔早年间的非流通证券(持有人不足 300 人),数额不大,加起来大约相当于我们合伙权益的 1%。此外,我们还有一笔数额更可观的非流通持仓,是 1960 年买下的一家本地公司,我们打算无限期持有。除此之外,我们所有的鸡蛋都放在巴菲特合伙基金这个篮子里,往后也依然如此。我不能保证成绩,但可以保证一荣俱荣、一损俱损。另外,我那支绵延不绝的亲戚队伍——三个孩子、母亲、父亲、两个妹妹、两个妹夫、岳父、四位姑姨、四位表亲、五个侄甥外甥——直接或间接持有的巴菲特合伙基金权益,合计 1,247,190 美元。比尔·斯科特也是全身心投入,他和妻子的权益是 237,400 美元,占了他们净资产的绝大部分。比尔干得非常出色,进入 1964 年后我们手上几桩最有意思的布局,大部分联络工作都是他做的。我还尽量把行政杂务都推给了他,所以你们要办什么事、有什么疑问,我不在的时候尽管找比尔。贝丝和唐娜也一如既往地把越来越重的活儿打理得井井有条。每逢十二月和一月,我敢说她们都后悔没另谋高就,可她们总能把堆积如山的事务收拾得妥妥当当。皮特·马威克·米切尔事务所照例出色,硬是赶上了一份紧张的时间表。我们已叮嘱他们,今后每年对我们的证券、现金等做两次突击盘点(过去是一年一次)。这些盘点花费不高,我认为对任何一家金融机构来说都很有必要。
We are starting off the year with net assets of $17,454,900. Our rapid increase in assets always raises the question of whether this will result in a dilution of future performance. To date, there is more of a positive than inverse correlation between size of the Partnership and its margin over the Dow. This should not be taken seriously however. Larger sums may be an advantage at some times and a disadvantage at others. My opinion is that our present portfolio could not be improved if our assets were $1 million or $5 million. Our idea inventory has always seemed to be 10% ahead of our bank account. If that should change, you can count on hearing from me. Susie and I have an investment of $2,392,900 in the Partnership. For the first time I had to withdraw funds in addition to my monthly payments, but it was a choice of this or disappointing the Internal Revenue Service. Susie and I have a few non-marketable (less than 300 holders) securities of nominal size left over from earlier years which in aggregate are worth perhaps 1% of our partnership interest. In addition we have one nonmarketable holding of more material size of a local company purchased in 1960 which we expect to hold indefinitely. Aside from this all our eggs are in the BPL basket and they will continue to be. I can't promise results but I can promise a common destiny. In addition, that endless stream of relatives of mine consisting of my three children, mother, father, two sisters, two brothers-in-law, father-in-law, four aunts four cousins and five nieces and nephews, have interests in BPL directly or indirectly totaling $1,247,190. Bill Scott is also in with both feet, having an interest along with his wife or $237,400, the large majority or their net worth. Bill has done an excellent job and on several or our more interesting situations going into 1964, he has done the majority or the contact work. I have also shoved off on him as much as possible of the administrative work so if you need anything done or have any questions, don't hesitate to ask for Bill if I'm not around. Beth and Donna have kept an increasing work load flowing in an excellent manner. During December and January, I am sure they wish they had found employment elsewhere, but they always manage to keep a mountain of work ship-shape. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell has done their usual excellent job of meeting a tough timetable. We have instructed them to conduct two surprise checks a year (rather than one as in past years) on our securities, cash, etc., in the future. These are relatively inexpensive, and I think make a good deal of sense in any financial organization.
下周之内,你会收到:
Within the next week you will receive:
(1) 一封税务信函,载有你填报 1963 年联邦所得税申报表所需的巴菲特合伙基金(BPL)全部信息。这封信
(1) A tax letter giving you all BPL information needed for your 1963 federal income tax return. This letter
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是唯一与报税有关的文件。(2)皮特·马威克·米切尔会计师事务所(Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.)出具的 1963 年审计报告,载明巴菲特合伙基金的经营与财务状况,以及你个人的资本账户。(3)由我签署的一封信,说明你在巴菲特合伙基金中截至 1964 年 1 月 1 日的权益状况,此数与审计报告一致。(4)合伙协议的附件“A”,列出全体合伙人。若有任何需要说明之处,尽管告诉我。随着规模扩大,漏发信件、跳过某个名字、数字前后错位之类的差错会更容易出现,所以一旦看着像是我们弄错了,请务必开口。下一封信约在 7 月 15 日发出,总结上半年的情况。顺致敬意,沃伦·E·巴菲特
is the only item that counts for tax purposes. (2) An audit from Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. for 1963, setting forth the operations and financial position of BPL as well as your own capital account. (3) A letter signed by me setting forth the status of your BPL interest on 1/1/64. This is identical with the figure developed in the audit. (4) Schedule “A” to the partnership agreement listing all partners. Let me know if anything needs clarifying. As we grow, there is more chance of missing letters, a name skipped over, a figure transposition, etc., so speak up if it appears we might have erred. Our next letter will be about July 15th summarizing the first half. Cordially, Warren E. Buffett
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附 录
APPENDIX
德克萨斯国家石油公司
TEXAS NATIONAL PETROLEUM
这是一桩再普通不过的套利,源头正是近年来套利机会的头号来源——石油天然气生产商的整体出售。TNP 是一家规模较小的生产商,多年来我对它一直略有耳闻。1962 年初,我听到风声,说它要卖给加州联合石油公司。这类消息我从不据以行事,但这回传闻确凿;要是我们从传闻阶段、而非公告阶段就入场,能赚到的钱要多得多。不过那是别人的营生,与我无关。1962 年 4 月初,交易的大致条款公布了。TNP 当时有三类证券流通在外:
This situation was a run-of-the-mill workout arising from the number one source of workouts in recent years -the sellouts of oil and gas producing companies. TNP was a relatively small producer with which I had been vaguely familiar for years. Early in 1962 I heard rumors regarding a sellout to Union Oil of California. I never act on such information, but in this case it was correct and substantially more money would have been made if we had gone in at the rumor stage rather than the announced stage. However, that's somebody else's business, not mine. In early April, 1962, the general terms of the deal were announced. TNP had three classes of securities
流通在外:
outstanding:
(1)票息 6½%、赎回价 104¼ 的可赎回债券,在出售完成前持续计息,届时将被赎回。这批债券共 650 万美元在外,我们在交易交割前买入了其中本金 264,000 美元。(2)普通股约 370 万股,高管和董事持有约 40%。委托书估计,清算所得约合每股 7.42 美元。从公告到交割的约六个月里,我们买入了 64,035 股。(3)以每股 3.50 美元认购普通股的认股权证共 65 万份。按委托书对普通股清算所得每股 7.42 美元的估计,认股权证对应的套利所得约为每股 3.92 美元。六个月里,我们买进了 83,200 份认股权证,约占全部发行量的 13%。股东否决的风险为零。这笔交易由控股股东出面谈成,价格公道。此类交易照例要过产权核查、法律意见等环节,但这方面的风险,同样几乎可以忽略不计。也不存在反垄断问题。当然,没有法律或反垄断障碍的情形,绝非总是如此。唯一的美中不足,是要拿到那份必要的税务裁定。联合石油采用的是标准的 ABC 生产支付融资法。生产支付的持有方是南加州大学,因其慈善机构的身份,事情拖了一阵。这对国税局来说是个新问题,但据我们了解,南加州大学愿意放弃这一身份——即便如此,等它从银行借来全部款项之后,仍能落下一笔可观的利润。理顺这件事虽拖了时间,却并未危及交易本身。4 月 23 日和 24 日我们与公司联系时,他们估计交割会在 8 月或 9 月完成。委托书材料于 5 月 9 日寄出,其中写明这桩出售“将于 1962 年夏季完成,此后数月内,大部分所得将以清算方式分配给股东”。如前所述,估计为每股 7.42 美元。比尔·斯科特出席了 5 月 29 日在休斯顿召开的股东大会,会上表示他们仍预计 9 月 1 日交割。以下是随后几个月里,我们与公司高管几次电话交谈的摘录:
(1) 6 1/2% debentures callable at 104 1/4 which would bear interest until the sale transpired and at that time would be called. There were $6.5 million outstanding of which we purchased $264,000 principal amount before the sale closed. (2) About 3.7 million shares of common stock of which the officers and directors owned about 40%. The proxy statement estimated the proceeds from the liquidation would produce $7.42 per share. We purchased 64,035 shares during the six months or so between announcement and closing. (3) 650,000 warrants to purchase common stock at $3.50 per share. Using the proxy statement estimate of $7.42 for the workout on the common resulted in $3.92 as a workout on the warrants. We were able to buy 83,200 warrants or about 13% of the entire issue in six months. The risk of stockholder disapproval was nil. The deal was negotiated by the controlling stockholders, and the price was a good one. Any transaction such as this is subject to title searches, legal opinions, etc., but this risk could also be appraised at virtually nil. There were no anti-trust problems. This absence of legal or anti-trust problems is not always the case, by any means. The only fly in the ointment was the obtaining of the necessary tax ruling. Union Oil was using a standard ABC production payment method of financing. The University of Southern California was the production payment holder and there was some delay because of their eleemosynary status. This posed a new problem for the Internal Revenue Service, but we understood USC was willing to waive this status which still left them with a satisfactory profit after they borrowed all the money from a bank. While getting this ironed out created delay, it did not threaten the deal. When we talked with the company on April 23rd and 24th, their estimate was that the closing would take place in August or September. The proxy material was mailed May 9th and stated the sale "will be consummated during the summer of 1962 and that within a few months thereafter the greater part of the proceeds will be distributed to stockholders in liquidation.” As mentioned earlier, the estimate was $7.42 per share. Bill Scott attended the stockholders meeting in Houston on May 29th where it was stated they still expected to close on September 1st. The following are excerpts from some of the telephone conversations we had with company officials in ensuing
月:
months:
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6 月 18 日,公司秘书表示:“联合石油已被告知,国税局已拟定了一份有利的裁定,但还需国税局其他人员审批。仍希望 7 月能出裁定。”7 月 24 日,总裁称他预计国税局“下周初”出裁定。8 月 13 日,财务主管告知我们,TNP、联合石油和南加州大学的人都在华盛顿,试图敲定裁定。9 月 18 日,财务主管告诉我们:“没有新消息,不过国税局表示裁定可能下周就能备好。”对派发金额的估计仍是 7.42 美元。裁定于 9 月下旬收到,出售交易于 10 月 31 日完成。我们的债券于 11 月 13 日被赎回。此后不久,我们将认股权证转换为普通股,并陆续收到普通股的分配款:1962 年 12 月 14 日每股 3.50 美元,1963 年 2 月 4 日每股 3.90 美元,1963 年 4 月 24 日每股 0.15 美元。一两年内我们可能还会再收到每股 0.04 美元。对于 147,235 股(行使认股权证后)而言,哪怕是每股 0.04 美元也不是小数目。这恰恰印证了惯常的规律:(1)交易耗时往往比最初预计的要长;(2)实际派发额往往比估计的略好。就 TNP 而言,多花了两个月左右,我们也多赚了几个百分点。
<<<END P 13>>>
On June 18th the secretary stated "Union has been told a favorable IRS ruling has been formulated but must be passed on by additional IRS people. Still hoping for ruling in July.” On July 24th the president said that he expected the IRS ruling “early next week.” On August 13th the treasurer informed us that the TNP, Union Oil, and USC people were all in Washington attempting to thrash out a ruling. On September 18th the treasurer informed us "No news, although the IRS says the ruling could be ready by next week.” The estimate on payout was still $7.42. The ruling was received in late September, and the sale closed October 31st. Our bonds were called November 13th. We converted our warrants to common stock shortly thereafter and received payments on the common of $3.50 December 14, 1962, $3.90 February 4, 1963, and 15 cent on April 24, 1963. We will probably get another 4 cent in a year or two. On 147,235 shares (after exercise of warrants) even 4 cent per share is meaningful. This illustrates the usual pattern: (1) the deals take longer than originally projected; and (2) the payouts tend to average a little better than estimates. With TNP it took a couple of extra months, and we received a couple of extra percent.
TNP 的财务成绩如下:
The financial results of TNP were as follows:
(1)债券上我们投入 260,773 美元,平均持有期略短于五个月。除拿到 6½% 的利息外,还实现资本利得 14,446 美元。这折成年化总回报率约为 20%。(2)股票和权证上,我们已实现资本利得 89,304 美元,手里还留着一些零头,目前估值
(1) On the bonds we invested $260,773 and had an average holding period of slightly under five months. We received 6 ½% interest on our money and realized a capital gain of $14,446. This works out to an overall rate of return of approximately 20% per annum. (2) On the stock and warrants we have realized capital gain of $89,304, and we have stubs presently valued
为 2,946 美元。从 4 月投入的 146,000 美元起步,到 10 月我们的持仓已长到 731,000 美元。按资金实际占用的时间算,年化回报率约为 22%。这两笔的回报,都是按全额自有资金投资计算的。我确实认为,用一点借来的钱去搭配一个套利组合是合理的,但拿去搭配将军股就非常危险了。我们摆出 TNP,并不是要吹嘘什么惊天动地的胜仗。比它漂亮的套利我们做过,比它逊色的也有。它不过是我们那种家常便饭式操作的一个典型。我们的做法是:尽可能把事实摸全,持续跟进事态发展,再结合自身经验把这一切掂量清楚。碰上的交易我们当然不会照单全收——它们的吸引力千差万别。一旦套利告吹,随之而来的市值缩水会相当惨重。所以,尽管我们心里清楚偶尔总要栽跟头,但实在经不起太多失误。
at $2,946. From an investment or $146,000 in April, our holdings ran to $731,000 in October. Based on the time the money was employed, the rate or return was about 22% per annum. In both cases, the return is computed on an all equity investment. I definitely feel some borrowed money is warranted against a portfolio of workouts, but feel it is a very dangerous practice against generals. We are not presenting TNP as any earth-shaking triumph. We have had workouts which were much better and some which were poorer. It is typical of our bread-and-butter type of operation. We attempt to obtain all facts possible, continue to keep abreast of developments and evaluate all of this in terms of our experience. We certainly don't go into all the deals that come along -- there is considerable variation in their attractiveness. When a workout falls through, the resulting market value shrink is substantial. Therefore, you cannot afford many errors, although we fully realize we are going to have them occasionally.
登普斯特磨坊制造公司
DEMPSTER MILL MFG.
这桩事得从 1956 年说起,起初它是一只将军股。当时登普斯特的股价是 18 美元,每股账面价值约 72 美元,其中每股有 50 美元是流动资产(现金、应收账款和存货)减去全部负债后的净额。登普斯特过去挣钱不少,眼下却只是勉强打平。定性方面是负面的(行业相当难做,管理层也不出彩),可数字却极其诱人。经验表明,你买下 100 家这样的公司,大概会有七八十家在一到三年内落个说得过去的利润。至于某一家为什么偏偏能行,在买入当时很难
This situation started as a general in 1956. At that time the stock was selling at $18 with about $72 in book value of which $50 per share was in current assets (Cash, receivables and inventory) less all liabilities. Dempster had earned good money in the past but was only breaking even currently. The qualitative situation was on the negative side (a fairly tough industry and unimpressive management), but the figures were extremely attractive. Experience shows you can buy 100 situations like this and have perhaps 70 or 80 work out to reasonable profits in one to three years. Just why any particular one should do so is hard to
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说得清,但整组押下去的胜算是有利的,无论助推力来自行业回暖、收购要约,还是投资者心理的转变等等。我们分批小量买进这只股票,持续了五年。这段时间的大部分年月里,我都是公司董事,对现有管理层治下的盈利前景越来越提不起劲。但与此同时,我也对公司的资产和运营愈发熟悉,对量化因素的评估依旧十分看好。到 1961 年年中,我们已持有登普斯特约 30% 的股份(期间我们发过几次收购要约,收效都不佳);而在 1961 年 8、9 月间,我们以每股 30.25 美元几番大手笔买进,再配上随后一次同价的收购要约,把持股推到了 70% 以上。此前五年,我们的买入价都在 16 至 25 美元之间。接手控制权后,我们把执行副总裁提为总裁,想看看他甩开旧政策的束缚后能干出什么名堂。结果并不理想,于是 1962 年 4 月 23 日,我们请来哈里·博特尔当总裁。哈里正是这份差事的不二人选。他的战功我从前讲过,而下面这张前后对照的资产负债表,比任何言辞都更能说明资本被重新盘活的效果。
say at the time of purchase, but the group expectancy is favorable, whether the impetus is from an improved industry situation, a takeover offer, a change in investor psychology, etc. We continued to buy the stock in small quantities for five years. During most or this period I was a director and was becoming consistently less impressed with the earnings prospects under existing management. However, I also became more familiar with the assets and operations and my evaluation of the quantitative factors remained very favorable. By mid-1961 we owned about 30% or Dempster (we had made several tender offers with poor results), but in August and September 1961 made, several large purchases at $30.25 per share, which coupled with a subsequent tender offer at the same price, brought our holding to over 70%. Our purchases over the previous five years had been in the $16-$25 range. On assuming control, we elevated the executive vice president to president to see what he would do unfettered by the previous policies. The results were unsatisfactory and on April 23, 1962 we hired Harry Bottle as president. Harry was the perfect man for the job. I have recited his triumphs before and the accompanying comparative balance sheets speak louder than any words in demonstrating the re-employment of capital.
11/30/61
11/30/61
现金 美国政府证券——按成本计 其他有价证券——按市价计(高于成本) 现金及证券合计
Cash US Gov’t Securities – at cost Other marketable securities – at market (which exceeds cost) Total Cash and Securities
$166,000
$166,000
7/31/63(未经审计) 89,000 美元 289,000 美元 2,049,000 美元
7/31/63 (unaudited) $89,000 $289,000 $2,049,000
$166,000 $2,436,000
$166,000 $2,436,000
应收账款(净额)
Accounts receivable (net)
存货
Inventory
预付费用等 流动资产合计
Prepaid expenses, etc. Current Assets
$1,040,000 $4,203,000 $82,000 $5,491,000 $864,000 $890,000 $12,000 $4,202,000
$1,040,000 $4,203,000 $82,000 $5,491,000 $864,000 $890,000 $12,000 $4,202,000
其他资产 厂房设备净额 资产合计
Other Assets Net Plant and Equipment Total Assets
$45,000 $1,383,000 $6,919,000 $62,000 $862,000 $5,126,000
$45,000 $1,383,000 $6,919,000 $62,000 $862,000 $5,126,000
应付票据 其他负债 负债合计
Notes Payable Other Liability Total Liabilities
$1,230,000 $1,088,000 $2,318,000 $274,000 $274,000
$1,230,000 $1,088,000 $2,318,000 $274,000 $274,000
净资产 60,146 股(1961 年 11 月 30 日) 62,146 股(1963 年 7 月 31 日) 负债与净资产合计
Net worth 60,146 shs. 11/30/61 62,146 shs. 7/31/63 Total liabilities and net worth
$4,601,000 $6,919,000 $4,852,000 $5,126,000
$4,601,000 $6,919,000 $4,852,000 $5,126,000
哈里:
Harry:
(1)把存货从 400 多万美元(其中大半周转缓慢)压到 100 万美元以下,大大削减了持有成本和过时风险;(2)随之腾出资金购买有价证券,我们由此赚了超过
(1) took the inventory from over $4 million (much of it slow moving) to under $1 million reducing carrying costs and obsolescence risks tremendously; (2) correspondingly freed up capital for marketable security purchases from which we gained over
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400,000 美元;(3)把行政和销售费用从每月 15 万美元砍到 7.5 万美元;(4)把工厂间接费用从每直接工时 6 美元降到 4.5 美元;(5)关掉五家亏损的分支机构(留下三家像样的),换上更能出活的经销商;(6)理清了内布拉斯加州哥伦布市一家附属工厂的一堆麻烦;(7)砍掉那些占用大量资金(这些钱本可投进证券生利)却不产生利润的代销业务;(8)调整维修零件的定价,估摸多赚了 20 万美元利润,而销量几乎
$400,000 (3) cut administration and selling expense from $150,000 to $75,000 per month; (4) cut factory overhead burden from $6 to $4.50 per direct labor hour; (5) closed the five branches operating unprofitably (leaving us with three good ones) and replaced them with more productive distributors; (6) cleaned up a headache at an auxiliary factory operation at Columbus, Nebraska; (7) eliminated jobbed lines tying up considerable money (which could be used profitably in securities) while producing no profits; (8) adjusted prices of repair parts, thereby producing an estimated $200,000 additional profit with virtually
没有损失;最要紧的是,(9)通过上述及其他种种举措,把公司的盈利能力恢复到了与所投资本相称的水平。到了 1963 年,我们面临沉重的公司税负(哈里用掉我们的税务亏损结转的速度之快,让我大吃一惊),加上公司内部资金过剩,逼得我们要么设法把公司“去公司化”,要么把生意卖掉。我们下定决心,在 1963 年底前二者必居其一。去公司化虽然麻烦不少,却能实际上把合伙人的收益翻一番,还能免掉登普斯特证券上的公司资本利得税。就在几乎是最后关头——此前几桩谈到相当深入的交易接连告吹之后——一桩资产出售终于谈成。尽管这桩买卖有不少枝节,但净效果大致是按账面价值变现。再加上我们有价证券组合里的盈利,合起来让我们每股约拿到 80 美元。登普斯特(现更名为第一比阿特丽斯公司——原名我们卖给了新公司)如今几乎只剩现金和有价证券了。在巴菲特合伙基金的年终审计中,我们持有的第一比阿特丽斯,按资产价值(证券按市价)减去 20 万美元的各项或有事项准备金来估值。我想说一句,我们相信买家会把登普斯特经营得很好。他们给我们的印象是一批有本事的人,而且备有稳妥的计划来扩大业务、提升盈利。以非公司形式继续经营登普斯特,我们本来乐意;能以合理价格把它卖掉,我们同样乐意。我们的生意是做出色的买入——而不是做惊人的卖出。哈里做事的路数和我一样——他喜欢大胡萝卜。他现在是巴菲特合伙基金的有限合伙人,下回我们再要勒紧裤腰带整顿,他就是我们要找的人。
no loss of volume; and most important; (9) through these and many other steps, restored the earning capacity to a level commensurate with the capital employed. In 1963, the heavy corporate taxes we were facing (Harry surprised me by the speed with which he had earned up our tax loss carry-forward) coupled with excess liquid funds within the corporation compelled us to either in some way de-incorporate or to sell the business. We set out to do either one or the other before the end of 1963. De-incorporating had many problems but would have, in effect, doubled earnings for our partners and also eliminated the problem of corporate capital gain tax on Dempster securities. At virtually the last minute, after several earlier deals had fallen through at reasonably advanced stages, a sale of assets was made. Although there were a good many wrinkles to the sale, the net effect was to bring approximately book value. This, coupled with the gain we have in our portfolio of marketable securities, gives us a realization of about $80 per share. Dempster (now named First Beatrice Corp. - we sold the name to the new Co.) is down to almost entirely cash and marketable securities now. On BPL's yearend audit, our First Beatrice holdings were valued at asset value (with securities at market) less a $200,000 reserve for various contingencies. I might mention that we think the buyers will do very well with Dempster. They impress us as people of ability and they have sound plans to expand the business and its profitability. We would have been quite happy to operate Dempster on an unincorporated basis, but we are also quite happy to sell it for a reasonable price. Our business is making excellent purchases -- not making extraordinary sales. Harry works the same way I do -- he likes big carrots. He is presently a limited partner of BPL, and the next belt-tightening operation we have, he's our man.
登普斯特这段经历点出了几条教训:
The Dempster saga points up several morals:
(1)我们这门生意需要耐心。它和满仓热门明星股的组合毫无共通之处;在那类股票风头正劲时,我们看上去可能相当木讷。证券在数月、乃至数年里价格纹丝不动,反倒对我们买进有利。这也点明了,我们衡量成绩必须给足时间。我们
(1) Our business is one requiring patience. It has little in common with a portfolio of high-flying glamour stocks and during periods of popularity for the latter, we may appear quite stodgy. It is to our advantage to have securities do nothing price wise for months, or perhaps years, why we are buying them. This points up the need to measure our results over an adequate period of time. We
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建议以三年为最低衡量期限。(2)我们不能谈论当前正在进行的投资操作。这种口无遮拦的做法,决不可能改善我们的业绩,在某些情形下还可能严重伤害我们。正因如此,无论是谁——哪怕是合伙人——问起我们是否对某只证券感兴趣,我们都只能援引第五修正案,保持沉默。
suggest three years as a minimum. (2) We cannot talk about our current investment operations. Such an open-mouth policy could never improve our results and in some situations could seriously hurt us. For this reason, should anyone, including partners, ask us whether we are interested in any security, we must plead the “5th Amendment.”
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