1969 年度致合伙人信

合伙人信 · 原文约 1385 词
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巴菲特合伙有限公司

地址:内布拉斯加州 奥马哈市 基维特广场 810 号,邮编 68131

电话:048-4110

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD. 810 KIEWIT PLAZA OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131 Telephone 048-4110

沃伦·E·巴菲特,普通合伙人

威廉·斯科特 1970 年 2 月 18 日

约翰·M·哈丁

Warren E. Buffett, General Partner William Scott February 18th, 1970 John M. Harding

致合伙人:

To My Partners :

我们的合伙公司生涯以一种对称的方式结束。我认为 1957 年和 1969 年——我们的起始年份和终结年份——是我们运营历史上最困难的两个日历年度。好在合伙公司的对称性仅限于此——如果结束时的资本与开始时相等,尽管在古典审美上平衡,恐怕不会让人感到完全满足。

Our Partnership life ended on a symmetrical note. I consider 1957 and 1969, our beginning and terminal years, to have been the two most difficult twelve-month calendar periods that we faced during our operating history. It was fortunate our Partnership symmetry went no further than this - an ending capital equal to our beginning capital, despite a classical aesthetic balance, might not have produced total fulfillment.

下面这张惯常的表格以最终形式呈现(同时伴随来自普通合伙人的一声如释重负的长叹):

The usual table appears below in final form (accompanied by a giant sigh of relief from the General Partner):

整体结果 合伙基金 有限合伙人

年份 道琼斯收益 (1) 基金收益 (2) 合伙人收益 (3)

1957 -8.4% +10.4% +9.3%

1958 +38.5% +40.9% +32.2%

1959 +20.0% +25.9% +20.9%

1960 -6.2% +22.8% +18.6%

1961 +22.4% +45.9% +35.9%

1962 -7.6% +13.9% +11.9%

1963 +20.6% +38.7% +30.5%

1964 +18.7% +27.8% +22.3%

1965 +14.2% +47.8% +36.9%

1966 -15.6% +20.4% +16.8%

1967 +19.0% +35.9% +28.4%

1968 +7.7% +58.8% +45.6%

1969 -11.6% +6.8% +6.6%

Overall Results Partnership Limited Partners Year From Dow (1) Results (2) Results (3) 1957 -8.4% +10.4% +9.3% 1958 +38.5% +40.9% +32.2% 1959 +20.0% +25.9% +20.9% 1960 -6.2% +22.8% +18.6% 1961 +22.4% +45.9% +35.9% 1962 -7.6% +13.9% +11.9% 1963 +20.6% +38.7% +30.5% 1964 +18.7% +27.8% +22.3% 1965 +14.2% +47.8% +36.9% 1966 -15.6% +20.4% +16.8% 1967 +19.0% +35.9% +28.4% 1968 +7.7% +58.8% +45.6% 1969 -11.6% +6.8% +6.6%

(1)基于道琼斯指数年度价值变动加上持有该指数当年可获得的股息。表格包含了合伙企业所有完整运营年份的数据。

(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of Partnership activity.

(2)1957-1961 年数据为所有全年运营的前身有限合伙企业合计结果,已扣除全部费用,但未计入向合伙人的分配或向普通合伙人的划拨。

(2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses, but before distributions to partners or allocations to the General Partner.

(3)1957-1961 年的数据,是基于前一列合伙业绩,按现行合伙协议中普通合伙人分配规则计算得出,但未扣除有限合伙人的每月提款。

(3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of Partnership results allowing for allocation to the General Partner based upon the present Partnership Agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.

从累计或复利的角度看,结果如下:

On a cumulative or compounded basis, the results are:

年份整体业绩合伙基金业绩有限合伙人收益
1957-8.4%+10.4%+9.3%
1957-58+26.9%+55.6%+44.5%
1957-59+52.3%+95.9%+74.7%
1957-60+42.9%+140.6%+107.2%
1957-61+74.9%+251.0%+181.6%
1957-62+61.6%+299.8%+215.1%
1957-63+94.9%+454.5%+311.2%
1957-64+131.3%+608.7%+402.9%
1957-65+164.1%+943.2%+588.5%
1957-66+122.9%+1156.0%+704.2%
1957-67+165.3%+1606.9%+932.6%
1957-68+185.7%+2610.6%+1403.5%
1957-69+152.6%+2794.9%+1502.7%

Overall Results Partnership Limited Partners’ Year From Dow Results Results 1957 -8.4% +10.4% +9.3% 1957-58 +26.9% +55.6% +44.5% 1957-59 +52.3% +95.9% +74.7% 1957-60 +42.9% +140.6% +107.2% 1957-61 +74.9% +251.0% +181.6% 1957-62 +61.6% +299.8% +215.1% 1957-63 +94.9% +454.5% +311.2% 1957-64 +131.3% +608.7% +402.9% 1957-65 +164.1% +943.2% +588.5% 1957-66 +122.9% +1156.0% +704.2% 1957-67 +165.3% +1606.9% +932.6% 1957-68 +185.7% +2610.6% +1403.5% 1957-69 +152.6% +2794.9% +1502.7%

年度复利回报率 +7.4% +29.5% +23.8%

Annual Compounded Rate +7.4% +29.5% +23.8%

最后,照例对四家投资公司做了最终统计:

And the final tabulation on the usual four investment companies:

年份Mass. Inv. Trust (1)Investors Stock (1)Lehman (2)Tri-Cont. (2)Dow有限合伙人
1957-11.4%-12.4%-11.4%-2.4%-8.4%+9.3%
1958+42.7%+47.5%+40.8%+33.2%+38.5%+32.2%
1959+9.0%+10.3%+8.1%+8.4%+20.0%+20.9%
1960-1.0%-0.6%+2.5%+2.8%-6.2%+18.6%
1961+25.6%+24.9%+23.6%+22.5%+22.4%+35.9%
1962-9.8%-13.4%-14.4%-10.0%-7.6%+11.9%
1963+20.0%+16.5%+23.7%+18.7%+20.6%+30.5%
1964+15.9%+14.3%+14.0%+13.6%+18.7%+22.3%
1965+10.2%+9.8%+19.0%+11.1%+14.2%+36.9%
1966-7.7%-10.0%-2.5%-6.2%-15.6%+16.8%
1967+20.0%+22.8%+27.6%+25.2%+19.0%+28.4%
1968+10.2%+8.0%+6.6%+9.6%+7.7%+45.6%
1969-4.8%-7.9%-1.9%+0.1%-11.6%+6.6%

Mass. Inv. Investors Limited Year Trust (1) Stock (1) Lehman (2) Tri-Cont. (2) Dow Partners 1957 -11.4% -12.4% -11.4% -2.4% -8.4% +9.3% 1958 +42.7% +47.5% +40.8% +33.2% +38.5% +32.2% 1959 +9.0% +10.3% +8.1% +8.4% +20.0% +20.9% 1960 -1.0% -0.6% +2.5% +2.8% -6.2% +18.6% 1961 +25.6% +24.9% +23.6% +22.5% +22.4% +35.9% 1962 -9.8% -13.4% -14.4% -10.0% -7.6% +11.9% 1963 +20.0% +16.5% +23.7% +18.7% +20.6% +30.5% 1964 +15.9% +14.3% +14.0% +13.6% +18.7% +22.3% 1965 +10.2% +9.8% +19.0% +11.1% +14.2% +36.9% 1966 -7.7% -10.0% -2.5% -6.2% -15.6% +16.8% 1967 +20.0% +22.8% +27.6% +25.2% +19.0% +28.4% 1968 +10.2% +8.0% +6.6% +9.6% +7.7% +45.6% 1969 -4.8% -7.9% -1.9% +0.1% -11.6% +6.6%

累计结果 +175.2% +146.3% +219.1% +208.4% +152.6% +1502.7%

年复利收益率 8.1% 7.2% 9.3% 9.0% 7.4% 23.8%

Cumulative Results +175.2% +146.3% +219.1% +208.4% +152.6% +1502.7% Annual Compounded Rate 8.1% 7.2% 9.3% 9.0% 7.4% 23.8%

(1)根据资产价值变动加上年内向登记持有人分配的任何款项计算得出。

(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year.

(2)数据来自 1957-1968 年的穆迪银行与金融手册,1969 年为估算值。

(2) From 1969 Moody’s Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1968. Estimated for 1969.

1969 年的股市

The Stock Market in 1969

直至最近还在嘲笑道琼斯指数以及上述四家投资公司的大多数投资者和投资经理,在 1969 年都过上了苦日子。这一年经历了所谓的“激进型”资金管理活动自流行以来最糟糕的相对业绩表现。不出所料,糟糕的业绩发生在巨额资本上,而之前的辉煌成果只惠及了较小的资金量。有分析头脑的各位应该想一想:某家基金第一年用 100 万美元资产赚了 100%,第二年用之前业绩吸引来的 10 亿美元资产亏了 25%,标准共同基金文献是如何准确描绘它的投资记录的。“传销”现象,无论是金融界的马基雅维利有意为之,还是大众基于低级情绪意外催生,都会产生同样的效果——少数人(有意或无意发出第一封信的人)赚得盆满钵满,而外围同心圆上数量多得多的那些人,以为模仿早期参与者明显丰厚的成果就一定能成功,结果却亏了钱。

Most investors and investment managers who, until quite recently, were deriding the Dow and investment companies such as the four mentioned above fell on lean times in 1969. The year probably witnessed the worst relative performance for so-called "aggressive" money management that has occurred since such activity became fashionable. Predictably, the poor performance has been applied to huge aggregates of capital whereas the earlier brilliant results only benefited much smaller sums. Those of you with an analytical bent should give some thought as to how accurately the standard mutual fund literature portrays the investment record of a fund which has a 100% gain in one year on $1 million of assets, and a 25% loss in a subsequent year on $1 billion (attracted by the earlier performance) of assets. The "chain letter" phenomenon, whether created intentionally by a financial Machiavelli or accidentally by a public responding to its baser emotions, tends to produce an identical effect - a few people, the ones who intentionally or accidentally mail the first letters, make a great deal of money; and a vastly greater number on the outer ring of concentric circles lose money while behaving in a manner they think is certain to succeed because of the obviously bountiful results to early participants.

十八个月前,我给你们寄了一篇马文·M·梅(Marvin M. May)文章的复印件,描述“虚钱”收购的连锁信效应。在 1969 年的股市中,这类活动彻底崩盘,梅先生文章的要义得到了验证。1964 到 1968 年间,许多看似不错的投资管理业绩,至少部分受益于企业的连锁信活动,而那些在 1969 年过度恋战的管理者,则狠狠地栽了个跟头。

Eighteen months ago I sent you a reprint of an article by Marvin M. May describing the chain letter effect of “funny money” acquisitions. In the stock market of 1969, the roof fell in on this sort of activity and the implications of Mr. May's article were validated. Many of the better investment management records in the 1964-1968 period were at least partial beneficiaries of corporate chain letter activity and, to the extent they over- stayed their hand in 1969, a substantial bath was taken.

1970 年和 1971 年的 BPL

BPL in 1970 and 1971

在结束合伙公司时,我一直希望给予各位现金或现金等价物,因为各位当初就是以这种方式加入 BPL 的。如各位所知,我们已将巴菲特合伙公司 1969 年 12 月 31 日资产中约 9900 万美元,以现金以及各位在控股公司中按比例持有的份额形式进行了分配。那些希望按年末估值价格将其持有的控股公司股份变现为现金的合伙人,已经可以这样做了。那些希望继续持有这些股份的人——正如我本人所做的那样——也能够保留其按比例持有的权益,而无需为超过 BPL 成本的未实现增值部分缴纳资本利得税。

In winding up the Partnership, I have wanted to give you cash or cash equivalent, since that is the way you entered BPL. As you know, we have distributed about $99 million of the December 31, 1969 assets of Buffett Partnership, Ltd. in the form of cash and your proportional share of controlled companies. Those partners who wanted to sell their share of the controlled companies for cash at yearend valuation prices have been able to do so. Those who wish to stay with them, as I am doing, have been able to maintain their proportional interest without incurring a capital gains tax on the unrealized appreciation over BPL's cost.

我们剩余的净资产大约为 600 万美元,主要来自持有的蓝筹印花股票。此外,还有一些零散资产,包括得克萨斯州比县一口天然气井约 90% 的权益收益(每年产出不到 4000 美元),以及南芝加哥一栋小商店建筑 80% 的权益。进入一项生意容易,退出却难得多。我预计到 1971 年我们能最终完成所有清算,但这只是初步估计——无论如何,我认为 1970 年不太可能再进行分配。办公室会在基维特广场保留至 1971 年租约到期(不过可能会换到不同楼层)。

We are down to about $6 million of net assets, largely represented by our holdings of Blue Chip Stamps. However, we have miscellaneous other items, including such little gems as about 90% of a fractional interest in the royalty under a gas well in Bee County, Texas (producing less than $4,000 per year) and 80% of a small store building in South Chicago. It is much easier to get into business than to get out of it. My expectation is that we will get everything finally wound up during 1971, but this is very tentative - in any event, I think it unlikely we make a further distribution in 1970. The office will be maintained at Kiewit Plaza (although perhaps on a different floor) through 1971 when our lease expires.

税务

Taxes

BPL 持有大量商业票据,这些票据在 1970 年 1 月上旬到期,届时将获得可观的利息收入。按收付实现制纳税的投资者(你我都是)会将全部金额计入收到年份,而非应计年份。因此,你在 1970 年需纳税的利息收入,将约占你 1969 年 1 月 1 日资本的 1.25%,尽管你几乎在 1969 年就已享受了全部经济利益。到 1971 年初,你会像往年一样,收到适用于你 1970 年 BPL 投资的完整税务信息。

BPL held large amounts of commercial paper due in the early days of January, 1970, on which substantial interest was received at maturity. The entire amount will be reported by cash basis taxpayers (which you and I are) in the year received rather than when accrued. Thus, you will have taxable interest income in 1970 equal to about 1-1/4% of your January 1, 1969 capital, although you received the economic benefit almost entirely in 1969. In early 1971, you will receive full tax information applicable to your 1970 BPL investment, just as in past years.

我们只有在 1971 年初,才能向您提供与您持有的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司及多元零售公司股票计税基础完全准确的数据。这是由于某些复杂因素造成的。

We will only be able to give you completely accurate figures pertaining to the tax basis of your Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. and Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. stock in early 1971. This is due to some complexities

根据税法规定,1970 年 BPL 的数据可能对这些项目的计税基础产生轻微影响。由于在 1970 年之前无人出售其持仓,且无需在 1971 年 4 月 15 日前向美国国税局提交明细材料,我们的最终数据将有充裕的时间提供给你。任何需要大致了解这些证券计税基础的人,应在 1970 年 3 月 31 日前联系约翰·哈丁。

of the tax law whereby 1970 BPL figures could have a minor effect on the basis of these items. Since no one sold his holdings until 1970, and since supporting detail for the Internal Revenue Service is not required until April 15, 1971, our final figures will be available to you in ample time. Anyone needing close approximations as to the tax basis of these securities should get in touch with John Harding prior to March 31,1970.

以及我的感谢

And My Thanks

这不是我最后一次写信给你们,因为必然还会有一些收尾的通信。我大约会在 2 月 25 日左右,向提出要求的人再寄一封信,普及债券的基础知识,重点放在免税领域。

This is not the last time you will hear from me, since there are bound to be a few winding-up communications. I also will be sending out a letter on about February 25th to those who have requested it, dispensing an elementary general education on bonds with the emphasis on the tax-free area.

通常情况下,企业清算意味着组织或人事上的缺陷。我们却完全是另一个极端。我认为 BPL 的员工比我所见过的任何机构都优秀。格拉迪丝、唐娜、约翰和比尔以最准确、最及时、最令人愉快的方式完成了所有交办的工作——有时候工作量确实很大。他们是一群极为优秀、才华横溢的人。别打他们的主意——约翰将去比尔·鲁安那里工作;我预计格拉迪丝和比尔会受雇于伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司,主要参与银行和保险公司的债券业务;而唐娜会在接下来几年里持续跟踪 BPL 的收尾工作。

Normally, the liquidation of an enterprise implies institutional or personnel weaknesses. Our own case represents the opposite extreme. I consider the BPL staff to be superior to that of any organization I have seen. Gladys, Donna, John and Bill have done everything asked of them - and sometimes it was plenty - in the most accurate, prompt and pleasant manner possible. They are exceptionally high-grade, talented people. Don't get any ideas about hiring them - John is going with Bill Ruane - I expect Gladys and Bill to become employed by Berkshire Hathaway. Inc., primarily in connection with the bond activities of the bank and insurance company - and Donna will be keeping tab on the run-out of BPL over the next couple of years.

自公司被 DRC 及 BH 收购以来,本·罗斯纳和杰克·林沃尔特为 BPL 做出了极其出色的贡献。过去三年里,他们的努力在很大程度上推动了控股公司每年年末估值的提升。如果他们只交出了普通经理人的成绩单,我们的业绩数字会差得多。

Ben Rosner and Jack Ringwalt have done extraordinary jobs for BPL since acquisition of their companies by DRC and BH. Their efforts over the past three years have contributed to a significant degree to the increased valuations applied to the controlled companies at each yearend. Our figures would have been considerably poorer had they turned in only the normal managerial job.

没有合适的合伙人,就不会有巴菲特合伙公司。努力只有在恰当的环境中才能结出果实,而你们提供了这样的环境。我大概是所有管理着同等规模资金的基金经理中,能把时间和精力利用得最充分的一个。我的工作从未被事后质疑、无关讨论或情绪安抚所拖累。你们让我全心投入这场游戏,从不告诉我该用哪根球杆、该怎么握杆,或是别的选手打得有多好。我对此深怀感激,而你们所取得的成果,也很大程度上反映了你们的态度和行为。如果你不这么认为,那你就低估了个人鼓励与同理心在最大化人的努力与成就方面的重要性。

Without the right group of partners, there would have been no BPL. Efforts can only be productive in the proper environment, and that is what you have provided. I have probably been able to utilize my time and energy more effectively than virtually any money manager working with comparable sums. My activity has not been burdened by second-guessing, discussing non sequiturs, or hand holding. You have let me play the game without telling me what club to use, how to grip it, or how much better the other players are doing. I've appreciated this, and the results you have achieved have significantly reflected your attitudes and behavior. If you don't feel this is the case, you underestimate the importance of personal encouragement and empathy in maximizing human effort and achievement.

诚挚的,

Cordially,

沃伦·E·巴菲特

Warren E. Buffett

WEB/glk

WEB/glk