2008 年 CNBC Chris Matthews 访谈
以下是巴菲特与阿诺德和克里斯·马修斯讨论的文字记录
The following is a transcript of Buffett’s discussion with Arnold and Chris Matthews
2008 年 10 月 22 日,星期三
Wednesday, 10/22/2008
2008 年女性大会上,施瓦辛格州长与沃伦·巴菲特探讨经济问题
Governor Schwarzenegger Discusses the Economy with Warren Buffett at the 2008 Women’s Conference
克里斯·马修斯今早股市下跌了 350 点。巴菲特先生,人们现在、今天、当下该做什么,从今往后又该如何做投资决策?
CHRIS MATTHEWSThe stock market dropped 350 points this morning. What should people do here, do now, today, as they make their investment decisions from here on out, Mr. Buffett?
沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,我完全不知道接下来一天、一周、一年股票市场会怎么走。但我毫不怀疑,十年后的股票会比现在明显高出一截;我也毫不怀疑,把钱留在现金等价物里的人,到时候手里的东西会更不值钱。至于什么时候入场,我无法给你掐时间算——可你要是手里拿着注定要越来越不值钱的现金等价物,又有机会换成注定会更值钱的东西,那什么时候换,就全看你自己了。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I have no idea what the stock market is going to do in the next day, week, year. There’s no question in my mind that stocks 10 years from now will be appreciably higher than they are now and there’s no question in my mind that people that leave their money in cash equivalents are going to own something of less value at that time. Now, I can’t time when you get in but if you own something that’s destined to become worth less with cash equivalents and you have a choice to swap it into something that’s destined to be worth more — when you do it is up to you.
我不认为人们能择时,所以我主张尽快行动。而且正如我上周提到的,在我的个人投资组合中,我实际上是在股市下跌的过程中,从 100% 政府债券转向了 100% 股票。
I don’t think people can time it, so I believe in doing it promptly. And as I mentioned last week, I actually, in my personal portfolio, was going from 100 percent governments into 100 percent stocks, as stocks are going down.
克里斯·马修斯那么,我们仍然从经理们那里听到——而且我们总是听到同样的说法——留在市场里?
CHRIS MATTHEWSSo still, what we hear from our managers — and we always hear the same thing — stay in the market?
沃伦·巴菲特没错。在 20 世纪,这个国家经历了大萧条、两次世界大战——其中一次一度看来我们快要输掉——还有流感大流行、一位总统辞职、大约十几次经济衰退和恐慌。道琼斯指数在那个世纪之初是 66 点,收盘时是 11,497 点。这个国家行得通。经济时不时会卡住,但这个国家行得通。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTYes. Well, in this country in the 20th century we had the Great Depression, we had two World Wars, one of which it looked like we were losing for a while and we had the flu epidemics, we had the resignation of a president, we had about a dozen recessions and panics. The Dow started that century at 66 and it ended at 11,497. This country works. It can get gummed up from time to time, the economy but this country works. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯施瓦辛格州长,在我们讨论公共政策之前,我想先聊聊我知道的你的起步方式。你是个生意人,对吧?
CHRIS MATTHEWSGovernor Schwarzenegger, before we get to public policy I want to talk to you about the way I know you started off. As a business guy, right?
施瓦辛格州长是的。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERRight.
克里斯·马修斯我想问您一个相当基础的问题。为什么自己当老板会更好?
CHRIS MATTHEWSI want to ask you just a really basic question. Why is it better to be your own boss?
施瓦辛格州长嗯,首先,我只想说,我很高兴再次回到这里,参加女性大会。我还要再次感谢玛丽亚,我的妻子,她一整年都在为把这场大会办得精彩、让这么多女性出席而努力,所以,让我们为她所做的出色工作热烈鼓掌吧。(掌声)
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWell, first of all, let me just say that I’m very happy to be back here again at the Women’s Conference. And I just want to say thank you again to Maria, to my wife, who was working on this all year long to make this a great conference and to have so many women show up, so let’s give her a big hand for the great job that she is doing. (Applause)
我还要感谢今天到场的 14,000 名女性,感谢你们对本次大会的支持,也感谢赞助商们前来参与、支持并为此出资。非常感谢。(掌声)
And I also want to thank the 14,000 women that are here today for supporting this conference and I also want to thank the sponsors for coming here and supporting this and putting their money behind it. So, thank you very much. (Applause)
我一直很享受拥有自己的生意。我 10 岁就开始了——沃伦和我在后台聊过这事,因为沃伦说,要成为一个成功的商人,最重要的事情就是早点开始,早点懂得要成为创业者需要什么。我 10 岁开始卖冰淇淋,每个周末在我奥地利老家的湖边卖冰淇淋,能赚 150 到 180 先令。每年学校放假,我都会出去干活,尝试经营自己的小生意。
I always have enjoyed having my own business. I started at the age of 10 — Warren and I were talking about this backstage, because Warren said the most important thing to be a successful businessman is that you start early and that you get it early, of what it takes to be an entrepreneur. I started at the age of 10 selling ice cream and I made 150 to 180 schilling every weekend when I ran around the lake where I grew up in Austria selling ice cream. And every year during school vacation I always went out and worked and tried to run my own little businesses.
所以这就像是我骨子里的东西。我不知道这股劲是从哪儿来的——家里没人做生意,没人有自己的买卖——可我一直就喜欢。后来呢,19 岁那年我在慕尼黑经营过一家健身房,到了美国之后,我又创办了自己的邮购公司。所以说,我干的所有事都离不开自己经营生意。
So it was just something that was in my blood. I don’t know where it came from, because no one in my family was into business, no one had their own business but I always enjoyed that. And so, when I grew up I ran a gym in Munich at the age of 19 and when I came to America I started my own mail-order business. And so everything was always involved around running my own business.
此外,我觉得如果你是一个愿意冒险、而不仅仅依赖安全网的人——我来美国,是因为这里机会遍地。但支撑我的并不是什么安全网。你站在那儿,去冒险,摔了就是摔了。我喜欢这样,我喜欢冒险,因为风险越大,收益越大,但同时摔得也越惨,这一点你必须认。所以我一直乐在其中。
Also, I think when you are a person that believes in taking risks and not just relying on a safety net — I came to America because there were great opportunities here. But it was not a safety net that was underneath there. You were out there and you took the risk and if you fall, you fall. And I like that, I like to take the risks, because the bigger the risks the greater the gains but the greater the fall is also, at the same time, so you have to recognize that. So I always enjoyed that.
克里斯·马修斯你知道,这次竞选活动中,“社会主义”这个词被用作负面标签,被用来抨击民主党参选人。你来自一个社会主义国家。你却作为一位资本家,一位年轻的资本家,在外面卖冰淇淋,某种程度上是在挑战体制。你怎么看?
CHRIS MATTHEWSYou know, the word ‘socialist’ has been used in this campaign as a negative, it’s been thrown at the Democratic candidates. You came from a socialist country. You were out there selling ice cream as a capitalist, a young capitalist, sort of challenging the system. What are your thoughts?
施瓦辛格州长我跟你说一件事,我那时没交税。(笑声)我那时才 10 岁,没谁找我要过税。但我告诉你,我离开欧洲就是因为那种社会主义式的环境,还有那些国家的治理方式,政府压在你背上,结果窒息了欧洲的机会,所以我来了美国。(掌声)
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWell, I can tell you one thing, that I didn’t pay taxes. (Laughter) I was 10 years old, no one collected any taxes from me. But I tell you one thing, that I left Europe because of the socialistic kind of environment and the way countries were run and the way government was on your back and therefore stifled the opportunities in Europe and that’s why I came to America. (Applause)
所以我希望——这也是我一直为我信任的政治领袖竞选助力的原因,因为我想尽我所能确保美国不会倒退回到 40 年前我离开欧洲时的那个年代,不会倒退到某些人正在谈论的那种财富再分配体系。根本就没有财富再分配这回事。(掌声)
So I hope — and that’s why I’ve been always involved in campaigning for political leaders that I believe in, because I wanted to do everything that I can to make sure that America doesn’t go back to those days of 40 years ago when I left Europe, that we go back to that system of redistribution of wealth that some people are talking about. There is no redistribution of wealth. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯我喜欢我们这样给观众做调查。我们刚听了共和党人的说法。(笑声)我知道。现在我们准备——就按我做《硬球》节目的惯例,这也是我拿薪水干活的内容——我问你一个问题,这个问题和州长刚才说的不矛盾,而是补充。
CHRIS MATTHEWSI love the way we poll the audience like this. We have just heard from the Republicans. (Laughter) I know. And now we’re going to — just to do my Hardball number, which is what I get paid to do, I’m going to ask you a question which doesn’t contradict but complements what the Governor just said.
你曾公开批评美国企业界收入分配失衡的问题——最高层级的人拿到的钱是普通员工的几何级倍数。(掌声)从某种角度来说,你怎么看这一点,和我们刚才听到的内容形成了对照?
You have spoken out against what you see as the disproportionate money that people make in American corporate life, that the top person makes exponentially what other employees make. (Applause) What do you think about that as a counterpoint, to some extent, to what we just heard?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得很多首席执行官确实配得上他们拿到的薪酬;他们收入极高,也为国家创造了大量财富。所以我并不反对人们赚大钱。但我反对的是那种失败了还能拿大钱的人。(掌声)最近似乎有种趋势,公司越大,摔得越轻,我实在不喜欢这样。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think that a great many of the CEOs do deserve what they’re being paid; they get paid very well and they produce a lot for the country. So I have no quarrel with people making a lot of money. I do have a quarrel with people failing and making a lot of money. (Applause) Lately it’s sort of been the bigger they are the softer they fall and I don’t really like that. (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯那么,你怎么看这种自上而下的社会主义——如果你是家大金融机构,美联储或财政部有人欣赏你的做派,你就得救;要是没人欣赏,你就成了雷曼兄弟那样的下场,听之任之?你对这种形式的政府、这种形式的经济社会怎么看?
CHRIS MATTHEWSWell, what do you think of this sort of top-down socialism where, if you’re a big financial firm and somebody likes the cut of your jib at the Fed or the Treasury Department, you get saved and if somebody doesn’t like the cut of your jib, you’re Lehman Brothers, for example, you fall? What do you think of that form of government, that form of economic society?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得这是个艰难的决定——如果你担任美联储主席或财政部长,要判断某家机构的倒闭会不会在经济其他领域引发海啸,确实很难。回过头看,雷曼兄弟的遭遇大概是个错误。但我理解他们当初为什么做出那个决定。先前贝尔斯登出事时,他们已经挨了不少批评。要是你看看贝尔斯登最终的股价,或者看看 AIG 最终的股价,那类东西的话,他们当初其实并没有真正救助那些公司。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think it’s a tough decision, if you’re the chairman of the Fed or the secretary of the Treasury, to decide whether the fall of a given institution is going to produce a tsunami throughout the rest of the economy. And I think that, looking back, probably what happened to Lehman was a mistake. But I can understand why they made that decision. They were under a lot of criticism for what had happened in Bear Stearns. They didn’t really bail out those firms, if you look at where the stock of Bear Stearns ended up, or you look at where the stock of AIG ended up, or that sort of thing.
他们真正想做的,其实是阻止病毒在整个金融系统里蔓延。而我认为,在雷曼兄弟这件事上,当他们没有出手时,就产生了一些意想不到的后果,这让他们对今后能做什么变得极为谨慎。我们的金融系统其实是一个高度互联的网络,如果像雷曼兄弟或贝尔斯登那样,手上有几百万份衍生品合约还没结清,而公司又倒闭了,那整个系统就会被堵塞很长时间。
What they were really trying to do was keep a virus from spreading throughout the system. And I think, in the case of Lehman, when they didn’t do it, they got some unexpected effects that made them very cautious about what they could do in the future. We really have an enormously interconnected system and if you have millions of derivative tickets outstanding, as they did at Lehman or at Bear Stearns and the firm fails, it clogs up the system for a long time.
不过,高管们可不能豁免。那些把一个机构搞垮后,还能带着几千万甚至几亿美元走人的想法——
You shouldn’t save the top people, though. The idea that people walk away with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars after destroying an institution —
克里斯·马修斯那你怎么做才能倒掉洗澡水却不把孩子一起倒掉?
CHRIS MATTHEWSWell, how do you throw the baby out and keep the bathwater?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得如果你有选择的话,你会救那个婴儿,而那个婴儿就是整个系统。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think if you’ve got a choice you save the baby and the baby is the system.
克里斯·马修斯这个你怎么看?你在奥地利卖冰淇淋的时候,冬天生意不好,你会希望政府过来拉你一把吗?
CHRIS MATTHEWSWhat about this? Do you think when you were selling ice cream in Austria that you would have liked it, when winter came and they weren’t selling so well, that the government came along and helped you out?
施瓦辛格州长绝对不会。(笑声)我跟你说,那会是最大的错误,因为那会让我变得懒得去创新。(掌声)问题就在这儿。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERAbsolutely not. (Laughter) Let me just tell you, that would be the biggest mistake, because that will make me lazy in being creative. (Applause) That is the problem.
于是冬天来了以后,我就得动点脑筋,在奥地利卖热狗的时候,热狗都冻成冰壶了。我知道大家都冻得够呛,所以我就得卖热茶、卖烈酒、卖香肠——什么能让他们开心就卖什么。(笑声)
What it did was, when winter came, I had to get creative and I had to sell hotdogs when they were ice curling in Austria. And so I knew that they were all freezing, so I had to sell hot tea, I had to sell schnapps and I had to sell sausages and all those kind of things in order to make them happy. (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯烈酒。
CHRIS MATTHEWSSchnapps.
施瓦辛格州长而且你知道,给他们上的烈酒越多,小费也越多,所以这事儿十分美妙。(笑声)我就喜欢这样。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERAnd you know, the more schnapps you served them, the more tips they gave you, so it was all very good. (Laughter) So I liked that.
但你不想要安全网,也不想让政府介入。政府有政府的职能——我想,欧洲的情况也很重要,就像我说过的,40 年前那里搞社会主义,但现在已经不同了。欧洲各国政府都学会了往另一个方向走,找到一个良好的混合模式:政府很重要,但它不是解决一切问题的答案。搞公私合作才是理想之道。所以我认为,重要的是美国别退回到 40 年前的老路上去。(掌声)
But you don’t want a safety net, you don’t want the government to step in. Government has its function — and I think the important thing is also in Europe, as I have said, 40 years ago we had socialism there but that has changed. The European governments all have learned to go the other way and to come up with a good mixture where government is important but where it’s not the solution to everything. And to have a public-private partnership is the ideal thing. This is why I think it’s important that America doesn’t go back to 40 years ago. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯资本主义是公平的制度吗?它能衡量优劣吗?优秀的生意人能成功,糟糕的生意人就会失败——是这样吗?
CHRIS MATTHEWSIs capitalism a fair system? Does it measure merit? If you’re a good businessperson, will you succeed, if you’re a bad businessperson will you fail?
沃伦·巴菲特这个体制运转得极为出色。我们拥有一个非常、非常了不起的体制。20 世纪,美国普通人的生活水平实际提高了 7 倍,所以我们的体制很棒。我总说,投资时你要买一家业务好到连傻瓜都能管理的公司,因为迟早会有一个傻瓜来管它。(笑声)我们的国家就是这样。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt works extremely well. We’ve got a great, great system. In the 20th century the average person in the United States improved their standard of living 7 for 1 in real terms, so we’ve got a great system. I always say that in investing you want to buy stock in a company that has a business that’s so good that an idiot can run it, because sooner or later one will. (Laughter) We have a country like that. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯你知道,我真心喜欢这句话。施瓦辛格州长来到这个国家,是因为他内心向往,因为他怀有抱负。我总问别人这个问题:如果你不认为这个国家出类拔萃,那为什么每一个来到美国的族裔,无论他们原先来自哪里,到了这儿都能过得更好?
CHRIS MATTHEWSYou know, I love that. Governor Schwarzenegger came to this country because he wanted to, because of his aspirations. And I always ask this question of people: If you don’t think this country is exceptional, how come every ethnic group that ever comes to America, no matter where they come from, does better here?
沃伦·巴菲特没错。
WARREN BUFFETTSure.
克里斯·马修斯为什么?
CHRIS MATTHEWSWhy?
沃伦·巴菲特我可以告诉你原因。这个国家在 1790 年只有 400 万人。中国当时有 2.9 亿人,差不多就是美国现在的人口。那里的人同样聪明,气候相似,自然资源也类似。而在这里,两百多年后,我们创造了全球 GDP 的 25%。中国现在是真地开始腾飞了,因为他们汲取了我们的经验。
WARREN BUFFETTI can tell you why. This country in 1790 had 4 million people. China had 290 million people then, almost the population we have now. The people were just as smart there, they had similar climates, they had similar natural resources. And here, a couple hundred years later, we’ve got 25 percent of the GDP of the world. And China is really starting to go now, because they’ve picked up on us.
我们有过不完美,但我们确有法治、市场体系和选贤任能的机制。正是这些品质释放了人类的潜能。中国当年也有人才,欧洲当年也有人才,但他们缺少一套能像美国这样把潜能释放出来的制度。
We’ve had an imperfect but we’ve had a rule of law, we’ve had a market system and we’ve had a meritocracy. And those qualities have unleashed human potential. The human potential was there in China before, the human potential was there in Europe but you did not have a system that unleashed that potential the way the American system has.
我要把功劳归于这三点。我们的制度能够做到,让杰克·韦尔奇最终掌管通用电气,让迈克·泰森去争夺重量级拳王头衔,但它不会让迈克·泰森去管通用电气,也不会让杰克·韦尔奇上场去打重量级拳王争霸战。我们培养人才的方式就像奥运会选拔赛,合适的人得到合适的资源和岗位,然后我们用法治来保护这套机制。它的运转十分、十分顺畅。
And I would give credit to those three factors. We have a system where Jack Welch ends up running General Electric and Mike Tyson ends up fighting for the heavyweight championship but it doesn’t put Mike Tyson in charge of General Electric or put Jack Welch in there fighting for the heavyweight championship. We have developed talents like an Olympic qualifying event where the right people get the right resources and the right jobs and then we protect that by a rule of law. And it works very, very well.
克里斯·马修斯我觉得韦尔奇现在就能把泰森打趴下。(笑声)瞎猜的。
CHRIS MATTHEWSI think Welch could take Tyson right now. (Laughter) Just a guess.
沃伦·巴菲特跟你说,这场对决我还真押了点钱。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI tell you, I’ve got a little money on that one. (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯州长,我想就这个艰难时期问您一个问题,作为最大州的州长,您正面临最严峻的财政困境。我们要怎样才能走出困境?事情会如何演变?我们只是受害者,还是自己也应当负上一些责任?
CHRIS MATHEWSLet me ask you, Governor, about these tough times, because as a governor of the largest state you face the toughest fiscal crunch. How do we get out of this thing? Where does it go? Are we victims of it, or are we guilty of something?
施瓦辛格州长嗯,首先,请允许我就沃伦所说的补充一点,我认为这确实是世界上最伟大的国家。我走遍了全世界,这里的机会远多于任何国家。(掌声)实在令人惊叹。只要你有决心,谁都能在这里成功。全看决心——你肚子里有多大的火,你是真心想靠自己,还是想去伸手索取救济?这全因人而异。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWell, first of all, let me just add to what Warren said, that I think this is really the greatest country in the world. I think it has the most opportunities of any nation and I’ve traveled all over the world. (Applause) It is staggering. Anyone can make it here if you have the will. It’s all about the will, how much fire do you have in the belly, how much do you really want to rely on yourself or how much do you want to go and get a handout? So that really depends.
所以说,尽管它有不足,尽管我们会遭遇危机、经历经济和财政的下行、所有那些起起落落,股市也涨涨跌跌,但这仍然是迄今为止最了不起的国家。不过,有一件事我们对美国确信无疑:它总会复苏,总会是世界上最强大、最优秀、最慷慨的国家。这一点我们深信不疑。(掌声)
So this is really by far the best nation even though it has its weak points and we have our crises and we have our downturns financially and economically and all those things and the stock market goes up and down. But there’s one thing we know for sure about America. It always will come back and it always will be the most powerful nation and the best nation and the most generous nation in the world. That we know for sure. (Applause)
加州,跟美国其他所有州一样,是因为全国和国际层面在发生的事情陷入了财政困境。我认为加州在住房危机中受到的打击异常沉重。但我们仍然非常幸运,尽管面临民众失去房屋、失业等种种严峻状况。
California, like all other states, has gotten into financial trouble because of what’s going on, on the national level and on the international level. I think California got hit very hard with the housing crisis. But we are very fortunate, even though there was a terrible situation of people losing their homes and people getting unemployed and so on.
但与此同时,也得看到加利福尼亚积极的一面,因为支撑加州经济的行业非常多。所以,就算房地产市场下滑了,我们还有高科技产业、绿色技术产业、生物科技、纳米科技,中央谷还有无比惊人的农业,诸如此类。所有这些都在支撑着加州,还有娱乐业、音乐产业等等。
But at the same time, one has to look at the positive also in California, because we have so many different industries that hold up the economy in California. So, even though the housing market went down, we have the high-tech industry, we have the green technology industry, the biotech, nanotech, we have the most unbelievable agriculture in the Central Valley, all of those kinds of things. All of this is holding up California and the entertainment and music industries and so on.
所以我们在这里非常多元化,加利福尼亚州有非常勤奋、非常聪明且富有创新精神的人。因此,我们拥有多个不同的行业,它们都表现良好,比去年更好。例如,生物技术、高科技,所有这些行业都比去年表现更好,还有绿色技术,尽管,像我说的,房地产市场在下跌。
So we are very diversified here and we have very hardworking people and very intelligent and innovative people in California. So we have various different industries that are doing well, better than last year. For instance, the biotechnology, high technology, all of those things are doing better than last year and also green technology, even though, like I said, the housing market is down.
所以,眼下关键问题,正如沃伦所说,是要竭尽所能支持房地产市场。这也是我们一直敦促联邦政府介入、为房地产市场注入资金的原因。我认为,第二轮经济刺激方案就该朝这个方向走——用这笔钱进场,或许可以收购部分贷款,但要按调整后的利率、以房屋当前的新价值来操作。虽然沃伦说过这事极难办——我完全同意,做这些事非常困难,从哪入手都是问题。
So the key thing now is, as Warren said, to do everything that we can to support the housing market. And this is why we have urged the federal government to come in and to support the housing market and to put money into the housing market. And I think this is the direction that the second economic stimulus package should go, in that direction, to use that money and to go in and to maybe buy up some of the loans but with the adjusted, with the variable — with the adjusted rate, with the new value of homes. And even though Warren said it’s very difficult to do — I totally agree it is very hard to do those things, where do you begin and all this.
但我认为关键是要让人们住在自己的房子里、不失去房子,因为金融市场不感兴趣,放贷方不感兴趣,家庭也不感兴趣。没有人愿意失去自己的房子,因为当银行接管那些房子时——我们在加州看到过——他们还得维护这些房子。他们现在得重新卖掉这些房子,得清理游泳池,免得蚊子滋生并传播疾病等等。所有这些麻烦。银行也不想被这些房子套住。所以我觉得,如果政府向那些房主提供帮助,让人们能留在自己家中,这对各方都有好处。(掌声)
But I think that’s the key, to make people stay in their homes and not to lose their homes, because the financial market is not interested, the lenders are not interested and the families are not interested. No one is interested in losing their home, because when banks take over those homes — we have seen in California — they have to do the upkeep. They now have to sell those homes again, they have to clean the swimming pools so they don’t have the mosquitoes gather there and then create and spread sicknesses and so on. So all of this stuff. They don’t want to get stuck with the homes. So I think there is something in there for everyone if government helps with those homeowners and keeps people in their homes. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯沃伦,如果你要给一个完全不懂经济的人解释 2008 年美国经济到底发生了什么,你会怎么讲?
CHRIS MATTHEWSWarren, if you have to explain to a very untrained mind what happened to the American economy in the year 2008, how would you explain it?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,情况是这样的,事情要追溯到两年前,当时 3 亿美国人几乎一致相信,每套房子每年都会升值。你信了,我也信了,我们的朋友们信了,媒体信了,国会信了,贷款机构信了,华尔街也信了。于是就有了这种心态——当然,每个人都渴望拥有自己的房子,如果明年房价会更贵,那还不如今年就买。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, what happened was, it began two years back when 300 million Americans, virtually unanimously, believed that every house was going to go up in value every year. And you believed it, I believed it, our friends believed it, the media believed it, Congress believed it, the lenders believed it, Wall Street believed it. So you had this feeling — and, of course, everybody aspires to own a home and if it’s going to cost more next year you might as well buy it this year.
而放贷机构也不太在意你是否有足够的收入来偿还贷款,因为它们觉得房子明年会更值钱,就算你还不上,它们也能把房子卖掉,照样赚钱。
And the lenders didn’t worry about whether you could meet the payments very much in terms of your income, because they figured the house was going to be worth more next year and if you couldn’t pay they’d sell the house at a profit anyway.
所以,当时普遍存在着这样一种信念,于是就有了房地产泡沫,还有一个庞大的资产类别——在峰值时,规模约为 22 万亿美元——它波及了美国近 68% 的家庭,影响了所有贷款机构和其他方方面面。整个世界都以此为杠杆,拼命加码。人们愿意把钱借给几乎任何人,让他们去买几乎任何类型的房子。首付?根本不提了。
So there was this universal belief and so you had a housing bubble and you had a huge asset class — at the peak it was about $22 trillion — it hit almost 68 percent of the households in the United States, it hit all the lenders and everything else. And the world leveraged up, based on this. People were willing to lend money to almost anyone to buy almost any kind of house. Forget about the down payment.
几年前,情况变得很明显——这个想法是错的。全国房价大约跌了 20%,那就是 4 万多亿美元。一项由大量人群持有、且全球投资者都买了相关证券的资产类别,凭空蒸发了 4.5 万亿美元,突然之间,人们的态度就变了,开始谁也不信了。
Now, a couple of years ago it became apparent that that was a fallacy. If houses have dropped 20 percent roughly nationwide, that’s $4-and-a-fraction trillion. If you take a $4.5 trillion hit to an asset class that’s owned by a very large number of people, in which people have bought securities on all over the world, all of a sudden people’s attitude changed and they started not trusting anybody.
接着他们想降杠杆。之前加了杠杆的人,无论个人还是机构,都想降杠杆。每个人都想从自己资产负债表的资产端往外抽身。而当整个世界都开始想降杠杆,另一边却没人接盘时,整个系统就冻结了。
And then they wanted to deleverage. People that had leveraged up, both individuals and institutions, wanted to deleverage. Everybody wanted to take out on the asset side of their balance sheet. And when the whole world starts wanting to deleverage and there’s nobody on the other side, the system freezes up.
所以你们需要联邦政府。在这种时期,联邦政府是唯一能够加杠杆的主体。我没办法加杠杆,加利福尼亚州也没办法加杠杆。
That’s why you needed the federal government. The federal government is the only party that can leverage up in a period like this. I can’t leverage up, the state of California can’t leverage up.
克里斯·马修斯“加杠杆”是什么意思?
CHRIS MATTHEWSWhat does ‘leverage up’ mean?
沃伦·巴菲特这意味着借更多的钱,从某种意义上说,是用借来的钱购买资产。几年前,全世界都在借钱买资产。现在这些人正试图降低这些贷款。你需要别人来加杠杆,而那个人必须是联邦政府。
WARREN BUFFETTIt means borrowing more money and in a sense buying assets with borrowed money. The whole world was buying assets with borrowed money a few years ago. Now those people are trying to get those loans down. You need somebody else to leverage up and that has to be the federal government.
克里斯·马修斯所以,当州长提到“刺激计划”的时候,我们的力度要超出他们几周前的措施,并且继续加码,不断采取刺激经济的行动——
CHRIS MATTHEWSSo when the Governor says ‘stimulus package’ we go beyond what they did a couple of weeks ago, we keep going beyond, keep taking steps to stimulate —
沃伦·巴菲特不管用哪种方式,你都得让体系里的其他部分在一定程度上降低杠杆,因为它们需要这么做。房主需要去杠杆,他们借得太多了。经济刺激计划是其中的一部分,但说真的,要么购买资产,要么往体系里注入资金来买入资产,这是绝对必要的,这也是我们正在做的事的原因。
WARREN BUFFETTOne way or another, you let the rest of the system deleverage to some extent because they need to. Homeowners need to deleverage. They over-borrowed. And a stimulus package is one part of it but actually some form of either buying assets or pumping money into the system to buy assets is absolutely required and that’s why we’re doing it.
阿诺德·施瓦辛格州长沃伦,我觉得这点非常重要——我们总在谈政府应该介入、出手救市,这没错。但如果你能谈谈政府最初在把局面搞砸这件事上起了多大作用,那就更好了。因为我认为,政府有时候就是乱子的制造者。(掌声)然后突然间大家又想着怎么脱身,问题就来了:同一个头脑——就像尼采说的——同一个制造问题的头脑,其实没办法真正解决问题。这里的情况也是这样吗?我们接下来该怎么走?
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWarren, I think it will be very important, because we always talk about how government should come in and help out in this situation, which I think is the right thing to do but I think it would be good if you address just a little bit about how much government was involved in getting us into this situation in the first place, because I think government sometimes creates the mess. (Applause) And then all of a sudden you try to get out of it and the question then is, can the same mind — like Nietzsche said, the same mind that has created the problem cannot really solve the problem. Is this also the case here? And how do we move forward on that?
这办法没法执行得尽善尽美,换谁来都一样。你想想,就是把亚历山大·汉密尔顿或别的什么人请回来当财政部长,也做不到完美。这个问题的规模实在太大,本质上就是一件难免粗粝之事。全美有 5500 万笔住房抵押贷款,目前只有 400 万笔出了问题,还有 2000 万套房子是完全没有抵押负担、产权清晰的。但你想在全国范围内,通过官僚体系之类的手段推行点什么,肯定会乱成一团。可在当前所需要的规模上,这是我们手里唯一切实可用的工具。光靠大银行自己不行,光靠投资者自己也不行,全世界都在去杠杆,资产排山倒海般涌来,谁也独自挡不住这股潮水。
Well, they won’t do it perfectly but nobody would do it perfectly. You know, you could put in Alexander Hamilton or somebody as secretary of the Treasury, whomever. It is a big, big problem and it’s going to be sloppy by its nature. You have 55 million mortgages in the United States. Now, only 4 million of them are in trouble at the present time. You have 20 million homes that are owned free and clear. But if you try to implement something on a national scale through a bureaucracy and so on, it’s going to be messy. But it’s the only real vehicle we’ve got to do it on the scale that’s required. There’s no way that the big banks by themselves, there’s no way that investors by themselves can stop the tide of assets that are being thrown at them as the world tries to deleverage.
克里斯·马修斯我们来谈谈政府政策。州长,你提到五年前上任时,你对诸如“课后计划”之类的项目确实做出了有力承诺;我多次就此采访过你。而且你一直把加州的教育事务作为重中之重来推动。我们来聊聊在座的所有人——这里有一万四千人,如果他们想成为创业者,或者已经是创业者,或者只是作为消费者、雇员,乃至企业高管,在努力谋生度日。政府能做出哪些积极之举?政府所扮演的积极角色是什么?
CHRIS MATTHEWSLet’s talk about government policy. Governor, you mentioned that when you took office five years ago you did have strong commitments to initiatives like After School; I interviewed you on those many times. And you’ve very much been pushing the priority of education in California. Let’s talk about all the people here, 14,000 people here and if they’re interested in being an entrepreneur, or they already are an entrepreneur, or they’re simply trying to make it as consumers, employees, perhaps corporate officers. What can the government do to be positive? What is the role, the positive role government plays?
阿诺德·施瓦辛格州长嗯,我认为政府必须对变化做出非常迅速的反应。我们看到联邦政府那边,因为投票通过了 7000 亿美元的一揽子方案,而后者才是第一个经济刺激计划。由于那个计划没通过,而他们又等了一周,造成了极坏的影响,人们对政府丧失了信心,所以后来它就完全没有起到任何作用。事实上,当 7000 亿美元方案最终获批时,股市反而下跌了。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWell, I think that it is very important that government reacts very quickly to the changes. And I think we have seen with the federal government because of the vote of the $700 billion package that was the first economic stimulus package. Because that failed and they waited a week, that had a terrible impact and people lost confidence in government and therefore it had no impact then afterwards at all. As a matter of fact, the stock market went down when they approved finally the $700 billion dollars.
所以我认为,对政府来说,快速反应至关重要。尽管这极具挑战性,因为在萨克拉门托我们要面对 120 位立法者,在华盛顿要打交道的当然更多。你还要同时与民主、共和两党以及各种相关方打交道。所以我认为这确实不容易,但我们必须要快。
So I think for government it is very important to react quickly, even though it’s very challenging, because we deal with 120 legislators in Sacramento and in Washington, of course, you have many more that you have to deal with. Then you deal with both of the parties, the Democrats and Republicans and all of those things. So I think it’s challenging but we’ve got to be very quick.
就像在加利福尼亚,我们远远走在了事态前面,因为早在去年 11 月,我们就看到了住房危机的问题。因此,我们与贷款机构、银行和金融机构坐到一起,开始协商制定协议,以帮助房主,不让他们走到止赎那一步,而是通过调整利率等方式,与房主一道解决问题。
Like in California, we were way ahead of what was going on because we saw last year already in November the problem with the housing crisis, so therefore we got together with the lenders and with the banks and financial institutions and started working out agreements to help the homeowners and not to go into foreclosure but to make the adjustments with the interest rates and to work together with the homeowners.
我们还在宣传上投入了资金,通过一场宣传活动让房主们知情,让他们主动去跟贷款机构沟通,因为这才是最重要的。不要收到催收信就扔掉,也不要有人打来电话就不接——要主动去沟通。因为他们都害怕,房主们很害怕,我们想鼓励他们——告诉他们该怎么做——所以我们就做了这些事。
We put also money behind it with a campaign to make the homeowners aware, to go and start communicating with the lenders, because that’s the most important thing. Rather than throwing the mail away when they get mail, or someone making a phone call, not to answer the phone, go and communicate. Because they were all scared, homeowners are scared, we wanted to inspire them — here is what you do — so we did that.
我们还通过了法律,规定当出现利率调整,而房主可能承受不起利率上调时,贷款机构必须主动联系房主。
We also passed laws that the lenders have to get in touch with the homeowners if there’s an adjustment of interest rates and they maybe cannot afford that interest rate bump.
所有这些事,我们都很早就做了,我认为那很重要。后来联邦政府实际上也跟进了,在其中一些领域做了同样的事。
All of those things we did very early on and I think that was important. And then the federal government actually followed us and did the same thing in some of those areas.
所以,很快,在大选之后,我们将再次召开特别会议,与立法领袖和议员们再次聚在一起,看看——因为形势瞬息万变,事情在变,事件变化如此之快,我们必须重新评估:我们是否还能为房贷危机做更多事情,以便让人们保住他们的房子,等等。
So now again we are going to have a special session very soon, after the elections, to get together again with the legislative leaders and with the legislators to see — because times change so quickly and things are changing, events are changing so quickly, we have to reevaluate is there more that we can do about the mortgage crisis and in order to keep people in their homes and so on.
不过,我们加州已经做了了不起的事。加州人民批准了 420 亿美元,外加 80 亿美元的基础设施债券,我们非常幸运。所以我们有了这笔钱。其中一部分已经拨款,另一部分还没有。让我们尽快把数十亿美元投出去,启动校舍建设、翻新教室、修建高速公路和上下匝道,来创造就业,因为我们得创造就业。(掌声)这才是最重要的事。
But we in California, we have done great things. We are very fortunate that the people of California have approved $42 billion plus an additional $8 billion of infrastructure bonds. So we have this money. Part of it has been appropriated and the other part not. Let’s push billions of dollars as quickly as possible out there to start building the schools, refurbishing the classrooms, building the highways, the onramps, the off ramps, to create jobs, because we’ve got to create jobs. (Applause) That is the most important thing.
我认为,说到女性——因为这是个女性大会——女性在很大程度上掌管着家庭财务。这很好,大多数女性执掌着家庭财务大局。但我觉得她们同样面临挑战,女性还有额外的负担,需要照顾老人——在家庭中,超过 70% 的照顾老人责任是由女性承担的。
And I think that, when it comes to women — because this is a women’s conference — women are so much in charge of financial matters in homes. It’s great, the majority of women are running the financial situation at home. And I think that they have the challenges, women have the additional challenges of having to take care of the elderly — more than 70 percent of the women have to take care of the elderly in the family.
但与此同时,看到女性拥有这么多企业,真是太好了。比如在加州,我们有近百万女性拥有企业——小企业、中型企业、大企业等等——我觉得这非常鼓舞人心。我认为,对女性而言,现在的关键在于,我们要共同努力,尽一切可能培养出更多高管、企业高管和更多公司内部的领导者,因为在美国最大的公司中,由女性领导的仍只有 10% 多一点。(掌声)
But at the same time, you know, it’s great when you see women owning so many businesses. Like in California, we have almost a million women owning businesses — small businesses, medium, large businesses and so on — so that’s, I think, very encouraging. And the key thing now is I think for women, that we do everything that we can together, that we create more executives, business executives and more leaders within corporations, because there are still only 10, a little bit more than 10 percent of women leading corporations, the biggest corporations in the United States. (Applause)
另外,我的目标还包括尽一切可能让更多女性进入立法机构,因为加州立法机构的女性比例大概只有 24%、25% 左右。(掌声)我认为,如果这个比例能提升到男女各半,你会看到做出的决策会有所不同,因为女性有不同的优先事项。我觉得,在萨克拉门托和华盛顿,为了做出更好的决策,我们需要这样的男女搭配。(掌声)
And also, my goal is to do everything that we can to create also more women in the Legislature, because we still have maybe 25 percent, or 24 percent of legislators that are women in California. (Applause) I think if we get that up to a level of 50/50, I think that you would see decisions are being made differently because women have different priorities and I think we need that mix in Sacramento and in Washington in order to make great decisions. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯你看,我们这边人少,就三个男的,行吧?
CHRIS MATTHEWSYou know, we’re outnumbered here, three guys, okay?
沃伦·巴菲特我喜欢这样。对于一个高中时连约会都约不到的男生来说,我现在挺享受的。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI like it. For a guy that couldn’t get a date in high school, I’m enjoying this. (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯你看,如果我们看看法律做了些什么——在我看来现场各位都非常推崇自由企业,也非常自强自立。但如果你看看这些年来政府做的一些好事——我暂时当一下自由派——我觉得《第九条》就很好。我很拥护《第九条》。(掌声)因为我太太在斯坦福上学时,她是全国冠军网球队的成员,但作为球队队员,她还得自己掏钱支付所有客场比赛的差旅费。当时他们对女运动员真的不公平。
CHRIS MATTHEWSYou know, if you look at what the law has done — and it’s a very free enterprise group here and very self-reliant, it seems. But if you look at some good things the government has done over the years — I’ll be the liberal for a minute — I look at Title 9. I love Title 9. (Applause) Because my wife went to Stanford, she was on the national championship tennis team and she had to pay for all the away-game travel as a player on the team. They were really unfair to women athletes.
然后我也看了,原因显而易见——好吧,反正所有性别的人都看了。今年奥运会的女子排球队,大概让全美国痴迷了两个星期。(掌声)显然,这一切都不会发生,如果没有——好吧,如果没有加利福尼亚,显然也没有沙滩和那种生活方式。
And then I watched and this is for obvious reasons — well, all genders watched this. The women’s volleyball team at the Olympics this year was probably the national obsession for two weeks. (Applause) And obviously none of that would have happened without — well, without California, obviously and the beach and then the lifestyle.
但女性在体育领域获得了机会——我想请你帮我检验一个想法,因为你或多或少就来自那个世界,我的意思是,你曾是那个世界的代表——女性在体育领域,在体育领域担任领导角色,我确实相信,就像很多男性已经证明的那样,会导向商业领域的领导角色。指挥、领导力,还有身体上的个人挑战,这些东西蕴含着某种力量,会让今天的女运动员成为明天的领导者。这是我的直觉。你怎么看?
But the fact that women have been given a chance in athletics — I want to try something by you, because you’ve come out of that world to some extent, I mean you represented it — women in athletics, leadership roles in athletics, I really believe lead to, as it has in so many cases with men, led to leadership roles in business. There’s something about command and leadership and personal physical challenge that is going to make the future of women, the athletes of today, the leaders of tomorrow. That’s my hunch. What do you think?
阿诺德·施瓦辛格州长嗯,我想我多次说过,我是在体育中学到了自己的教训,非常重要的教训。你能学到许多了不起的东西,比如队友情谊,与人合作,成为有团队精神的人。你必须分析自己的表现,必须认清自己的不足之处,就像每个人在表现上都有不足一样。我需要改进什么?我如何改进这些不足之处?我如何听取别人的意见,从而做出改进?所有这一切,再加上坚持到底。你在体育中学到的最重要教训之一,就是坚持到底。如果你打网球,人们会说要完整地完成挥拍动作;打高尔夫时,会说要完整地完成挥杆;滑雪时,会说要完成转弯之类的动作。我一向认为,生活中也是如此。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWell, I think that I have said many times that I learned my lessons, very important lessons, in sports. There are so many great things that you learn about camaraderie, about working together with others, being a team player. You have to analyze your performance, you have to recognize the shortcomings, as everyone has with their performance. What do I need to work on? How do I work on those shortcomings? How do I listen to other people’s input so that I can make improvements? So all of this and follow through. The most important, one of the most important lessons that you learn in sports is follow through. If you play tennis they talk about follow through with the swing. When you play golf they talk about follow through with the swing. When you go skiing they talk about finishing your turn and all of those things. The same is in life, as I always say.
比如说,当你谈到绿色能源技术和应对全球变暖时,很多人会通过法律来应对全球变暖。但切实去执行这些法律、落实到位、让它变成现实,那完全是另一回事。这才是困难的部分,也是我们加州之所以如此成功的原因——我们制定了法律,然后确实跟进落实,切实去减少并抗击全球变暖,降低温室气体排放等等。所以,我认为这些都是你能从体育中学到的经验,你可以把这些经验运用到经营企业上,或者当你在担任州长、参议员、竞选公职或任何职位时展现领导力,无论做什么都适用。我觉得所有这些确实是一笔巨大的财富,你带着这些知识和经验。
Like for instance, when you come to green energy technology and about fighting global warming, there are a lot of people that pass laws in order to go and fight global warming. But then to actually execute the laws and to follow through and to implement the laws and to make it actually happen, is a whole other thing. That’s the difficult part and that’s why we in California have been so successful, that we create the laws and then there is follow through, that we actually do go and cut down and fight global warming, cut down on greenhouse gas emissions and so on. So I think those are all lessons you learn from sports and you can apply those lessons to running a business or showing leadership when you are the governor, or if you are a senator or if you run for office or anything, or run a business, whatever it is. I think all of things do have a great asset, that you bring this knowledge with you and this experience.
沃伦·巴菲特我谈到过我们的制度如何释放了人类潜能,但这两个世纪以来,这个国家确实一直忽视了一半的人类潜能。(掌声)回溯到 1776 年,托马斯·杰斐逊在《独立宣言》那著名的第二段里写下“我们认为这些真理不言自明,人人生而平等”,这话激励了全国民众。可等到起草宪法的时候,那些话完全成了空话。一个黑人只算五分之三个人。人人生而平等——五分之三个人。女性在 1920 年凭借第十九修正案才赢得投票权。即便在那之后,也要等到 1981 年桑德拉·戴·奥康纳才进入最高法院。《独立宣言》发表后,我们走过了整整两百年。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTI talked about how our system has unleashed human potential but for two centuries this country really ignored half of its human potential. (Applause) If you go back to 1776, Thomas Jefferson in that famous second paragraph of the Declaration of Independence inspired people throughout the country when he said “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.” Those words were totally hollow when they came around to drafting the Constitution. A black was three-fifths of a person. All men are created equal — three-fifths of a person. Women got the right to vote in 1920 with the 19th Amendment. And even after that, it was 1981 before Sandra Day O’Conner was put on the Supreme Court. We went 200 years after the Declaration of Independence. (Applause)
所以我们实际上忽视了全国一半的才华。这一现状让我对未来充满希望——这个国家还能进一步释放出更多的潜能。如果你读过美国宪法第二条第一款,就知道里面规定了总统的任职资格。我想阿诺德肯定读过那个条款。(笑声)
So we, in effect, ignored half the talent in the country. It’s what gives me a lot of hope for the future in terms of unleashing even more potential in this country. If you read the Constitution of the United States, Article 2, Section 1 talks about the qualifications of the president. I imagine Arnold has read that section. (Laughter)
第二条说的是,“他须任职四年。”我觉得这是宪法里唯一用到的人称代词。“他须……”我是说,想象一下,这句话一直以来——无论字面上、潜意识里还是其他方面——在向这个国家半数人口传递着怎样的信息。而且就像我说过的那样,我们花了 131 年才承认她们有权投票或担任陪审员。这个国家浪费的潜能之多你简直无法想象,但我们现在要开始把它释放出来了。(掌声)
The second sentence says, “He shall serve a term of four years.” I think it’s the only personal pronoun in the Constitution. “He shall . . .” I mean, imagine the message that has been delivering, both literally and subliminally and every other way, to half the population. And like I said, it took 131 years before we even said they could vote or serve on juries. We have wasted potential like you can’t believe in this country but now we’re going to start unleashing it. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯我骨子里那股使坏劲儿正在把我往这个方向带。准备好了吗?
CHRIS MATTHEWSThe devilish part of me is leading me in this direction now. Ready?
沃伦·巴菲特好的,我们已经收到提醒了。
WARREN BUFFETTOkay, we’ve been warned.
克里斯·马修斯我们这儿有两位男士。会不会是女性因为自身能力上的优势反而受害了呢?我来说说我的看法。我成长在一个老派家庭。我爸是一家之主什么的——其实他根本不是一家之主——这事挺复杂——但他以为自己是一家之主。(笑声)他以为自己是一家之主。可你知道吗,我妈才是天才,是我们能上好大学、能矫正牙齿、能学钢琴、能在海边有栋房子、能让我们从普通中产稍微再往上走一点点的那位——全是因为我妈有那个眼界。她逼着我爸去实现这一切,然后她自己又拼命干,才把事情做成。(笑声)
CHRIS MATTHEWSWe’ve got two guys here. Could it be that women have been victimized by their own superiority in terms of competence? I suggest this. I grew up in an old-school family. My father was the boss and all that but he really wasn’t the boss — it was complicated — but he thought he was the boss. (Laughter) He thought he was the boss. And, you know, my mom was the genius, the reason we went to good colleges, the reason we had our teeth straightened, the reason we had piano lessons, the reason we had a house at the shore, the reason we became sort of moderately above, slightly above middle-middle, was because my mom had that vision. And she worked my father to get it done and then she worked very hard to get it done. (Laughter)
但她才是一家人的智囊。要是没有她,那本支票簿根本没人会多看一眼。她对此一清二楚。
But she was the mental brain of the family. The checkbook would never have been even looked at if it hadn’t been for her. She knew all that.
这话放在今天尤其真切,我就在想,女人们是不是太拼命了,反倒把自己手里的筹码给丢了,因为所有费心劳神的事都是她们在做。她们清楚孩子打过哪些疫苗。你要是问一个男人孩子打过什么疫苗,他会像看外星人一样盯着你,那表情就像在说:我怎么会知道这种事?(笑声)老师叫什么名字,他们不知道;孩子班上同学叫什么,他们也不知道。妻子、母亲,她们全都门儿清,要是哪个没记住,心里还会愧疚——疫苗、孩子,跟孩子有关的一切。孩子要全面发展,今天得去博物馆,今天又得去上钢琴课。丈夫心里想的是:我得赶紧躲出去,大概就这意思。(笑声)
And this is so true today and I just wonder whether women are working so hard that they’re losing their leverage, because they do all the mental stuff. They know what shots the kids have had. If you ask a guy what shots the kids have had he looks at you like you’re from Pluto. Like, why would I know that, you know? (Laughter) The teachers’ names, they don’t know their classmates’ names. The wife, the mother, knows them all or feels guilty if she doesn’t, the shots, the kids, everything about them. Child enrichment, they have to go to the museum today, they’ve got to go to get piano lessons today. The husband is thinking, I’ve got to get out of here, kind of thing. (Laughter)
然而在精神上,他仍然揣着一家之主的观念。所以我的问题是,女人是家庭的秘密 CEO,还是秘密 CFO,家庭秘密高管团队的一员?我的意思是,为什么她们不是名正言顺地当家作主?(掌声)这就是我那个让人不安的想法。
And yet mentally he’s carrying the notion of pater familia still. So my question is, are women the secret CEOs, or the secret CFOs, the secret C of the family? And why aren’t they running the place officially, is what I’m asking. (Applause) That’s my troubling thought.
沃伦·巴菲特好。那我也来问个刁钻的。再回到你年轻时的那个家庭——(笑声)如果你能做出那个改变,你会改变自己吗?在发掘你的天赋和未来种种方面——你会选择把自己变成一个女人,然后说那边才更占优势吗?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTOkay. Let me get devilish too. Going back to this household of your youth — (Laughter). If you could have made the change, would you have changed yourself, in terms of exploring your talents and everything else in the future — would you have changed your sex into a woman and made that choice and said that’s the better side of the fence to be on? (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯那时候——你那是在讨现场观众的欢心。(笑声)要我说——当我的女儿挺不错的,我就这么说吧,行吗?如今,在 21 世纪,作为一名正值上大学年纪的年轻女性,怀揣着雄心壮志——就像她前几天突然跟我蹦出一句要当律师,或者跟她妈提这事儿——她完全具备这份能力,也有十足的信心,能干几乎任何事。而且,正如我说的,她正在探索未来二三十年巨额政府债务的代价。我觉得她眼里看不到任何障碍。
CHRIS MATTHEWSBack then — you are playing to this crowd. (Laughter) I would think that — being my daughter is a good deal, I’ll put it that way, all right? Today, in the 21st century, being a young woman of college age and having ambitions — like she just popped me with lawyer the other day, or she popped my wife with it — complete aptitude and complete confidence that she can do just about anything. And as I said, she’s out there exploring the costs of big government debt 20, 30 years from now. I don’t think she has any barrier that she can see.
沃伦·巴菲特我完全支持这一点。社会已经发生了天翻地覆的变化,但我出生于 1930 年,我有两个姐妹,她们绝对和我一样聪明。在潜意识层面,她们在学校、在家里、在教堂里接收到的信息是——她们看到男性主宰着教会,看到男性主宰着一切。她们接收到的信息是,自己和我的命运并不相同,那是一种可怕的信息。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTAnd I’m all for that. It’s changed dramatically but I was born in 1930 and I had two sisters, absolutely as smart as I was. Subliminally they were given the message in school, at home, in their church — they saw men ruling the churches, the saw men ruling everything. They were given the message that they did not have the same destiny that I had and that was a terrible message. (Applause)
现在,我觉得局面已经大大、大大改善了。但过去如果你在任何一个领域有抱负——我有一回碰见一位女士,她是康奈尔医学院录取的第一位女医生。上解剖课时,他们让她站在屏风后面。作为一个女性,50 年前你接收到的信息是:你的位置在那边。也许你在某些方面比丈夫聪明,但在我当时认识的男性里,几乎没有谁会说:“天哪,我真希望我生来就是个女人,这样我就能在任何一个领域充分施展自己的才华了。” (笑声)
Now, I think it’s gotten way, way better. But the idea that if you had ambitions in anything — I talked to the woman one time that was the first woman doctor to go to Cornell Medical School. They had her stand behind a screen during the anatomy class. The messages you got as a woman 50 years ago were that your place was over here. And maybe you outsmarted your husband in some way or another but very few males I knew then said gee, I wish I’d been born a woman so I could explore my talents fully, you know, in whatever field. (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯那到底是什么变了?催化剂是什么?
CHRIS MATTHEWSSo what changed? What was the catalyst?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得变化其实从 1920 年第十九修正案就开始了。但变化非常缓慢。再往后,我认为女性有了不同的榜样。我觉得,像桑德拉·戴·奥康纳这样人物的出现——不管具体是谁——你得先看到,才会相信。而在 50 年或 75 年前,人们看不到这些。现在,她们看到女性经营企业,看到女性做各种事情,今年还有女性非常认真地竞选总统。所以情况确实变了。希拉里·克林顿为女性做了很多。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think it started changing, actually, in 1920 with the 19th Amendment. But it changed very slowly. And then, I think women have had different models. I think that the emergence of a Sandra Day O’Connor, whatever it may be, you had to see it to believe it. And they didn’t see it 50 or 75 years ago. Now they see women running businesses and they see women doing things, this year running for president in a very serious way. So it has changed. Hillary Clinton has done a lot for women. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯州长,您怎么看这事?这会儿咱们在加州——花一分钟聊聊政治吧,毕竟正是时候。希拉里·克林顿竞选总统时,拿下了民主党大约一半的选票,而且一直咬得很紧,到最后关头都难分胜负。共和党这边,现在也出了一位副总统竞选搭档,置装费可是相当可观。(笑声)瞧见没?听听这个。
CHRIS MATTHEWSWhat do you think about that, Governor? Here in California — let’s talk politics for a minute, because it’s the time to do it. Hillary Clinton won roughly half the votes in the Democratic Party when she ran for president and it was very close right to then end. We’ve got a vice-presidential running mate on the Republican side now, with a very good clothing allowance. (Laughter) See? Listen to this.
沃伦·巴菲特克里斯,想想你妈妈。
WARREN BUFFETTRemember your mother, Chris.
克里斯·马修斯这就来了,这就来了。州长,您现在怎么看政治与女性这个话题?加州有两位女性联邦参议员,都是位高权重的人物。(掌声)我们在政治上已经实现平等了吗,还是说比较接近了,还是没到?是不是离政治上的平等还差 20 年?
CHRIS MATTHEWSIt has begun, it has begun. Governor, what do you think about politics and women right now? California has two U.S. Senators who are women, very prominent. (Applause) Have we reached equality yet in politics, or something close to it, or not? Are we still 20 years off from something like equality in politics?
州长施瓦辛格好吧,首先让我说一句,有意思的是,他没回答你最初提的那个问题——你自己到底有没有想过当女人。那才是正题,不过反正他也没答。(笑声)很好。但不管怎样,归根结底——沃伦,我跟你讲,你把压力推给他了。你得收着点,沃伦,你得收着点。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERWell, first of all, let me just say it was interesting that he didn’t answer the question that you asked originally, if you ever wanted to be a woman. That was really the question but anyway, he didn’t answer that question. (Laughter) Very good. But anyway, the bottom line — Warren, you put the pressure on him, I’m telling you. You’ve got to tone it down, Warren. You’ve got to tone it down.
不过不说这个了,让我直接——
But anyway, let me just —
克里斯·马修斯嗯,其实我有四个兄弟、没有姐妹,所以我说不好。不过,你说到点子上了。
CHRIS MATTHEWSWell, actually I had four brothers and no sisters, so I don’t know. But point taken.
州长施瓦辛格你不用解释,因为加州有些男人确实想变成女人。(笑声)不过别担心,你不用做那种表态。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERYou don’t have to explain, because there are some men in California that would like to change to be a woman. (Laughter) But don’t worry, you don’t have to make that commitment.
不说这个了,我想我之前提到过——
But anyway, I think I mentioned that —
克里斯·马修斯我们又要回到“娘炮男”那茬儿上了吗?(笑声)
CHRIS MATTHEWSAre we going back to girly boys again? (Laughter)
州长施瓦辛格这话可不是我说的。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERI didn’t say it.
沃伦·巴菲特我不谈税,他不提娘娘腔男人。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI don’t say taxes, he doesn’t say girly men. (Laughter)
克里斯·马修斯懂了。
CHRIS MATTHEWSI get it.
州长施瓦辛格我想我之前提过,我认为女性已经取得了长足的进步。身为女性显然极为不易,因为她们背负着从过去承袭下来的传统,然后要打破这层玻璃天花板,去切实取得那些进展,向前迈进。我觉得今年确实是个了不起的年份,尽管你看到外头一片争吵——党派间的恶斗、互相攻击、彼此指指点点——但事实是,女性确实迈出了非常重大的一步。就像你说的,希拉里·克林顿——这真的很了不起。在民主党这边,我认为出现了两个突破。最终选上谁已经不重要了,因为在非裔美国人这边是一个巨大的突破,而对女性来说,这本也会是一个非凡的突破。(掌声)所以我觉得能看到这样的情景,真是太棒了。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERI think I mentioned that earlier, that I think that women have made tremendous strides forward. And it is very, very challenging to be a woman, obviously, because of the tradition where you come from and then to break through this glass ceiling and to go and really make those advances and moves forward. And I think that this year it was really a terrific year, even though you see all the bickering, the partisan bickering out there and the fights and they’re pointing fingers at each other. But the fact is that woman have really made a major move. And like you said, Hillary Clinton — I mean, this is extraordinary. On the Democratic side, of course, I think there are two breakthroughs. It didn’t matter who was chosen in the end, because he’s a great breakthrough on the African-American side and an extraordinary breakthrough it would have been also for woman. (Applause) So I think that was fantastic, to see that.
另外,共和党这边,我觉得麦凯恩选择佩林州长作为搭档也特别棒——(掌声)要我说,现在讨论的那些问题,什么经验多经验少、衣服花了 15 万美元还是 2 万美元,全是扯淡。跟那些都没关系。关键是,一位女性坐到了那个位置上。我觉得这非常了不起。我为此为共和党感到非常骄傲,因为我本来觉得他们永远做不到,永远突破不了那道坎——结果他们做到了,所以这太棒了。
And I think also on the Republican side I think it’s great that McCain picked Palin, Governor Palin, because that is again — (Applause) And you know, I’m not talking about now the argument, less experienced, more experienced, clothes $150,000 or $20,000 and all those things. That has nothing to do with it. It’s just that a woman is there in there in that position. I think that is extraordinary. I’m very proud of the Republican Party because of it, because I felt they would never get there, to really break through those kind of areas and they did, so that was terrific.
而且我认为我们现在必须继续前进。我觉得美国已经准备好选举一位女性当总统,美国也准备好选举一位非洲裔美国人当总统。我认为美国人渴望改变。(掌声)
And I think that now we have to continue on. I think America is ready to elect a woman as president and America is ready to elect an African-American to be president. I think Americans are ready for change. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯好吧,我想我们三个男人坐在这里,我要说点什么来为自己那副挑事儿的模样辩护一下。(笑声)我对和我一起生活的那个人感到惊讶,她一心多用的能力——这甚至不足以完全描述她——那种能思考我们生活中最广泛、最深刻关切的事情的能力。她心里装着这些事,一一处理,而我会把事情往后拖。她还会跟官僚打交道。我讨厌跟官僚打交道。我讨厌给公司打电话找人修东西。但她特别有胆量,打电话给官僚、给机构,把事搞定——等回家跟她吃晚饭时,她会说,“我今天把你担心的那件事解决了。”她做了晚饭,同时每天处理着我们这个时代最复杂的问题。对孩子也一样,她对我们家的事了如指掌。她就像一台关于我们家的巨型知识电脑,而我就像一只虫子,飞进来什么都不知道,只知道食物在哪儿,我来煮咖啡。我为此无比自豪。
CHRIS MATTHEWSWell, I guess we sit here as three men and I want to say something to defend what seems to be my trolldom here. (Laughter) I am amazed at the person I live with, her ability to multitask — and that’s not even explaining her fully — the ability to think about things in the widest variety of concern in our lives, the broadest, deepest concern. And she has these things on her mind and she deals with them and I’ll put things off. And she’ll deal with bureaucrats. I hate dealing with bureaucrats. I hate dealing with companies when you call them up to fix something. And she’s so gutsy at calling up the bureaucrat, calling up the agency, fixing — and she’ll say, “I fixed that thing we were worried about today,” when I come home and have dinner with her. She’s made the dinner and she’s dealt with the most complicated issues of our time every single day of my life. With the kids, she knows all this stuff about our family. She is like a giant computer of knowledge about our family and I’m like this insect that comes in and knows nothing except where’s the food, I’ll make the coffee. And I am so proud.
我认为我们在这里谈论的是滞后现象。男士们已经认识到——在座这三位和整个社会都已经认识到——女性在这个国家多个世纪以来所发挥的巨大智慧和良心作用。这种能力并非新事物,但获得认可是新事,我认为这就是正在发生的变化。(掌声)
And what I think we’re talking about here is the lag. Men have appreciated, these three guys here and society has appreciated the enormous intellectual and conscientious role that women have played for so many centuries in this country. It’s not new, the capability. It’s new, the recognition and I think that’s what’s happened. (Applause)
我要向玛丽亚致敬——我还没来得及聊聊你们家施瓦辛格是如何分工和分权的。你要不要申请加个时来说这个?(笑声)
And I salute Maria — and I didn’t get a chance to talk about how you divide responsibilities and authority in the Schwarzenegger household. Do you want to ask for extra time for that? (Laughter)
施瓦辛格州长我可以告诉你,在我们家这事太简单了。玛丽亚要什么我都说行。(笑声)为了家庭和睦嘛。
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERI can tell you, in our household it’s very easy. I just say yes to everything Maria asks for. (Laughter) To keep peace.
克里斯·马修斯我不这么看。我觉得情况要复杂得多。
CHRIS MATTHEWSI don’t think so. I think it’s more complicated.
施瓦辛格州长不过我跟你说,你这话确实很有道理,因为你要是真观察女性在家里的表现,看她们做的那样多任务处理——我简直佩服得五体投地,就拿玛丽亚来说吧。我是说,孩子小的时候,他们还是小婴儿,在地上爬来爬去,钻到家里的书桌底下,她一边在电脑上工作,一边打着电话,手上还在记笔记,我走进来问她一个问题,她照样继续干她手里所有的事。我连读个剧本,房间里都不能有小孩。她做多任务处理的能力简直不可思议。我觉得女人天生就有这种本事,比男人强太多了。所以说,也许她们是更优越的物种,谁知道呢?(掌声)
GOVERNOR SCHWARZENEGGERBut I tell you, you have a really good point there, because if you really watch women and how they function at home and the kind of multi-tasking that they do — I’m absolutely blown away, for instance, by Maria. I mean, she has been, when the kids grew up and they were little babies, they were crawling around under the desk at home and she would be working on the computer and she would be on the phone on one side and she was taking notes on the other and I will come in and ask her a question and she will continue doing all of those things. When I just read a script I couldn’t have a kid in the room. She is so unbelievable with the multitasking. And I think women have that capability more so, much more so than men have. So they are maybe superior, who knows? (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯也许更优越,谁知道呢?但确实,政治和社会终于赶上了现实的步伐。谢谢各位。谢谢您,沃伦·巴菲特先生。
CHRIS MATTHEWSMaybe superior, who knows? But definitely, finally politics and society is catching up with reality. Thank you all. Thank you, Warren Buffet, sir.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Applause)
克里斯·马修斯谢谢你,州长。(掌声)
CHRIS MATTHEWSAnd thank you, Governor. (Applause)