2009 年 Fortune Most Powerful Women 峰会访谈
以下是沃伦·巴菲特接受 CNBC 贝基·奎克采访的录音文字整理。采访在《财富》杂志“最具影响力女性峰会”上进行，地点在加利福尼亚州卡尔斯巴德，录制于 2009 年 9 月 14 日，时值金融危机最高潮一周年之际。部分内容于 2009 年 9 月 15 日和 16 日在 CNBC 电视台播出。
This is a transcript of Warren Buffett’s taped interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit in Carlsbad, California. It was recorded on September 14, 2009 to mark the one-year anniversary of the height of the financial crisis. Portions aired on CNBC TV on September 15 and 16, 2009.
贝基·奎克欢迎各位。我们在《财富》杂志“最具影响力女性峰会”现场，沃伦·巴菲特也来到了这里，他是仅有的三位获邀参会的男性之一。沃伦，非常感谢你今天参加我们的活动。
BECKY QUICKWelcome everyone. We are here at Fortune's Most Powerful Women conference with Warren Buffet, who is one of just three men who made it into this conference. Warren, thank you very much for joining us today.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTThat's right. Thank you.
贝基你是怎么——怎么混进女性大会的？（笑声）
BECKYHow'd you-- how'd you make it into the women's conference? (LAUGHTER)
巴菲特谁知道呢。毕竟——想想看，对于一个高中时连约会都约不上的家伙来说，这里简直是天堂，我可以这么说。（笑声）
BUFFETTNobody knows. I mean-- for a guy that couldn't get a date in high school this is Heaven, I can tell you that. (LAUGHTER)
贝基你知道，一年后我们再回头看这件事。雷曼倒闭已经过去一年了，很多人还在试图弄明白当初的选择是对是错。有人说，如果雷曼没倒，整个资本市场可能已经崩溃了。你怎么看？
BECKYYou know, we've been looking back at a year later. We are one year out from Lehman's and a lot of people are trying to figure out whether it was the right choice, whether it was the wrong choice. There are some people who say if Lehman didn't fail the rest of the-- the capital markets would not have survived. What do you think?
巴菲特嗯，我认为——我认为如果政府不大举介入，雷曼兄弟就注定要倒闭。而且，你知道，出于这样那样的原因——他们一般都会说自己没有这个权限。以我的经验，通常不管政府想做什么，他们总能找到这个权限。但是——如果——你想想，如果美林在那个周日没有找到接盘方——周一的市场恐怕会彻底失控。
BUFFETTWell, I think -- I think Lehman was destined to fail unless the government came in big time. And -- you know, for one reason or another the -- they generally said they didn't have the authority. My experience usually is it that whatever the government wants to do, they find the authority, but if -- if -- listen, if Merrill Lynch hadn't gotten sold on -- on -- on -- on Sunday -- what would have happened Monday would have been off the charts.
贝基所以——
BECKYSo the -
巴菲特我们即将——
BUFFETTWe'll -
贝基——更重要的是——
BECKY-- more important -
巴菲特——我们正在——
BUFFETT-- we're -
贝基——只能留一个？
BECKY-- one to save?
巴菲特雷曼——雷曼可能本应——说“拯救”这个词恐怕不那么准确——但本应以某种有序的方式进行处置。我是说，它倒下之后随即引发的是一片混乱，一切就这样发生了，完全失控。而且我认为，雷曼的受托人已经说过，由于清算过程毫无秩序，仅在雷曼自身层面就白白损失了 500 亿到 750 亿美元。
BUFFETTLehman -- Lehman probably should have been -- not saved isn't the right world -- word, but transferred in some kind of an orderly manner. I mean it was -- it was the chaos that came after the fact that it just -- it just happened and there was total disorder. And I think the trustee for Lehman has said between $50 and $75 billion at Lehman itself was lost unnecessarily because of the disorderly way that the liquidation took place.
贝基·奎克显然，当时幕后有大量通话在进行。你参与过其中任何一次通话吗？
BECKYObviously there were a lot of calls that were going on behind the scenes at that point. Were you a part of any of those calls?
巴菲特哦，我——我接过一个电话。当时我在埃德蒙顿——参加一个社交晚宴——大概是埃德蒙顿时间傍晚六点左右，我正在酒店。我确实接到了来自——巴克莱银行的负责人——鲍勃·戴蒙德，以及投资银行家迈克尔·克莱恩的电话。他们显然刚刚得知，英国监管当局不允许他们全面收购雷曼。这还不只是他们后来接手的那部分业务。但他们当时正在讨论——讨论进来接管整个雷曼。而英国监管当局表示，如果——如果涉及的金额超过 30 亿英镑，在我的记忆中是这样——就需要股东投票表决，而表决要到更晚的时候才能进行，所以他们问我们能否出具一份保险合同，在获得股东批准之前，为所有交易对手方提供保护。所以我可以告诉你，在大概晚上八点左右，他们正在拼命寻找解决方案——
BUFFETTOh, I -- I got a call. I was in Edmonton -- at a social event that -- I was at the hotel about 6 o’clock or so Edmonton time. And I did get a call from -- from -- the head of -- the head of Barclay's -- Bob Diamond and -- and Michael Klein, who was an investment banker. And they had just learned apparently that the British authorities would not allow them to take over all of Lehman. This was not just the part that they took over later. But they were -- they were talking about -- about coming in and taking over Lehman. And the British authorities had said if -- if it involved more than three billion pounds, as I remember, it needed the vote of shareholders and that couldn't take place 'til sometime later so they were asking if we would write an insurance contract that would protect everybody on the other side of trades until they got that shareholder approval. So they were looking for a solution I can tell you at about 8 o’clock on —
贝基是周六吗？
BECKYOn Saturday?
巴菲特——是在星期六。还——晚上八点钟。结果——他们一个也没找到。
BUFFETT-- on Saturday. And - 8 o’clock in the evening. And -- they didn't find one.
贝基·奎克你当时意外吗？我是说——到底发生了什么？你拒绝了这个报价吗？怎么回事？
BECKYWere you surprised? I mean it -- what happened? Did you turn down this offer? What happened?
巴菲特事情是这样的，他们跟我描述那笔交易，但我实在没法——快速搞明白。所以我请他们发一份传真到我住的酒店。我本来要去参加一个社交活动，大概半夜结束。发份传真给我，详细解释一下这笔交易，让我能看懂。告诉我他们需要多大的额度，以及——愿意付多少溢价。然后我会尽快回复他们。我当晚就给他们回电话。因为——他们说的那笔交易很复杂。我没——没完全听懂，而且楼下还有人等着我。（轻笑）反正——那天晚上我大概半夜回到酒店，但传真没到。显然那段时间里交易就崩了。
BUFFETTWell, what happened is they described the transaction to me that I really couldn't grasp -- quickly. And so I asked them to send me a fax at the hotel. I was gonna go to the social affair that would break up around midnight. Send me a fax, that explains the transaction in detail so I could understand it. Tell me how much of a limit they needed and -- how much of a premium they would pay. And then I would get back to them promptly. I'd call 'em that night. And -- 'cause it was a complicated transaction they were describing. I didn' t -- I didn't fully understand it and people were waiting for me downstairs. (CHUCKLES) Anyway -- when I got back to the hotel that night around midnight, but there was no fax. Apparently it blew up at some point in that period.
贝基后来——后来你听到了什么？他们有没有跟你解释原因或者具体情况？
BECKYWhat -- what did you hear afterwards? That -- did they explain to you why or what?
巴菲特呃，我——不，我——我不知道他们为什么觉得那笔交易不可行，我也不知道是不是出于其他原因，巴克莱当时决定不继续收购雷曼。而且你也知道，几天后他们实际上还是和那家经纪自营商做了一笔交易。但——按我的理解，星期六纽约时间晚上八点左右，英国某个监管机构基本裁定，如果交易金额超过 30 亿英镑，就必须经过股东批准才能进行。
BUFFETTWell, I -- no, I -- I don't know why they felt the transaction was unfeasible or I don't know if for some other reason that Barclay's decided they couldn't go ahead with Lehman at that point. And as you know, a few days later they actually made a transaction with the broker-dealer arrangement. But -- the way I understood it on Saturday at 8 o’clock New York time or so was that -- that -- one of the authorities in -- in England had ruled essentially that if it involved more than, I think, three billion pounds that they couldn't do it without shareholder approval.
贝基·奎克那个周末你接到其他电话了吗？
BECKYDid you get other phone calls that weekend?
巴菲特（笑）我接了很多电话。周五晚上——周五傍晚，我接到一个关于 AIG 的电话。他们需要在接下来的周三之前拿到几十亿美元资金，所以周五晚上我去了办公室，仔细研究我们是否有可能从他们那里收购一处规模非常大的财险业务。花了好几个小时之后，我给 AIG 首席执行官鲍勃·威卢姆斯塔德打电话说：“很不巧，这笔交易我做不了。别在我这儿浪费时间了，去找别家吧。”然后周日我从埃德蒙顿回来之后，AIG 又出现了，他们在找一份保险单，用于配合某个针对 AIG 的收购要约——我想发起方是克里斯·弗劳尔斯，可能还有 KKR 之类的几个人。
BUFFETTI (LAUGHS) got a lot of phone calls. I had a phone call on Friday night -- the Friday -- late Friday afternoon -- on AIG. And they -- they were gonna need many, many billions of dollars by the following Wednesday, so I went down to the office on Friday night and looked hard at whether we might possibly buy a very large property casualty operation from them. And -- spent a few hours then. And then I called (AIG CEO) Bob Willumstad and I said, "Unfortunately -- I can't do this deal. And don't waste your time with me, so go someplace else." Then on Sunday after I got back from Edmonton, AIG was in the picture again and they were looking for an insurance policy in connection with an offer that was being made for AIG. I think it was by Chris Flowers and perhaps KKR, a few people.
贝基·奎克对。
BECKYRight.
巴菲特有那么几个人。他们说要去开个董事会，决定接不接这单。但如果他们接的话，我们能不能在某种再保险交易上配合好。我说我觉得可以。结果周日晚上的事情就黄了，所以——那场面相当热闹。
BUFFETTA few people. And they said they were gonna get goin' to a board meeting and decide whether they were going to accept this. But if they did accept it would we be good on a certain type of reinsurance transaction. I said I thought we would. But then that blew up on Sunday night, so it was -- a lot of action.
贝基·奎克这次跟您以往经历过的任何一次有什么不同吗？
BECKYIs this different than any time you'd ever experienced before?
沃伦·巴菲特那是——
BUFFETTIt was --
贝基·奎克这些是——
BECKYThat were --
沃伦·巴菲特——那次经历——除了 1991 年我直接卷入的所罗门兄弟事件之外。那是一个极为特殊的周末。
BUFFETT-- it was -- except for the Solomon experience I had in 1991, when I was more directly involved. This was a very extraordinary weekend.
贝基·奎克你在 AIG 那笔交易里看到了什么，那个提议让你觉得，“算了吧，这行不通？”
BECKYWhat did you see in the AIG deal, in the offer there that you -- that you thought, "Forget about it. This is not gonna work?"
巴菲特我刚刚——我们刚才在谈论收购一家财产险公司，报价可能在 250 亿美元左右。我看到的情况让我觉得，首先我就不想出那个价钱。再说了，这事还得经过纽约州保险局批准，谁知道还要过多少关。我就是——根本没办法在下周三之前把钱拿过去。
BUFFETTI just -- we were talking about buying a property casualty operation that might have sold in the $25 billion range. And what I saw indicated to me I wouldn't have wanted to pay that in the first place. And beyond that it would have required New York State Insurance Department approval and who knows was else. And I just -- there was no way to hand a lot of money by Wednesday the next -- the next week.
贝基回过头来看，你对那个周末做的任何决定感到后悔吗？
BECKYAnd in hindsight do you have any regrets about any of the decisions you made that weekend?
巴菲特不。我是说，我——我——我当时可能也该做些别的事。不，我——我——我挺庆幸我们没买下那家保险公司。我会做周日晚上涉及的那笔再保险交易。雷曼那件事，到现在我都还没搞明白（笑），那笔交易到底是什么。不，那——那——那就像看一场电影，但别——参与进去。（笑）
BUFFETTNo. I -- I mean the -- the -- I should have been probably doing other things too. No, I -- I'm -- I am -- I am glad we didn't buy that particular insurance operation. I would have done the reinsurance transaction that was involved on Sunday night. The Lehman thing I still don't understand, even (CHUCKLES) to this day, exactly what the transaction was. No, it was -- it was -- it was a movie to see but not to -- participate in. (LAUGHS)
贝基我们已经过去一年了。去年在最糟糕的时候，你能想象到的最坏情况——什么没有发生？
BECKYWe are one year out. When-- in-- in the worst of it last year, what was-- the worst possible thing you could imagine happening that didn't happen?
巴菲特嗯，我认为如果——如果——这个国家和美联储。我是说如果伯南克和保尔森，以及任何参与决策的人，如果没有站出来担保——实际上是担保商业票据、担保货币市场基金——那么崩盘会立刻发生。我是说——我——我不——这个——很难说它会蔓延到多远。但肯定会——肯定比任何人希望看到的——还要远。而且——你可以争论，（笑）如果美国银行没有在周日收购美林，我认为周一美林就会倒下。我是说——所以如果你让雷曼和美林在同一天倒掉——谁知道会发生什么。
BUFFETTWell, I think if-- if the-- country and the Fed. I mean if Bernanke and Paulson and whoever else was involved with the decision, but if they hadn't have stepped up to guarantee-- in effect guarantee commercial paper and guarantee the money market funds-- the meltdown would have been immediate. I mean it-- I don't-- it-- it's hard to tell how far it would have gone. But it would have gone-- it would have gone further than anybody would have wanted to-- to see. And that-- you can argue, (LAUGHS) if Bank of America hadn't bought Merrill Lynch on Sunday, on Monday I think Merrill would have gone. I mean-- and so if you had Lehman and Merrill go in the same day-- who knows what would have happened.
贝基·奎克您觉得谁是最伟大的英雄？
BECKYWho do you think the biggest heroes are?
巴菲特嗯，我觉得英雄是——是——（美联储主席）伯南克。我认为（前财政部长）保尔森是英雄。我相信（现任财政部长）盖特纳是英雄——我——我——你知道，事后你可以说这件事本可以做得稍有不同，那件事也本可以有所不同，但当时我称之为经济珍珠港事件，而最终我们挺过了珍珠港。而且——而且结果本来可能会大不一样。
BUFFETTWell, I think the heroes are-- are—(Federal Reserve Chairman) Bernanke. I think (former Treasury Secretary) Paulson's a hero. I think (current Treasury Secretary) Geithner’s a hero are-- I-- I-- you know, you can look back and say you could have done this a little differently or that a little differently, but at the time I called it an economic Pearl Harbor and in the end we got through Pearl Harbor. And-- and it could have turned out a lot differently.
贝基有些人，包括（银行分析师）梅雷迪思·惠特尼，说——我们只是把问题往后拖了拖。银行——仍然——仍在挣扎。我们有很多
BECKYThere are some people, including (bank analyst) Meredith Whitney, who say-- we've just kicked things down the road. That the banks-- are-- are still struggling. That we have a lot of
信用卡以及其他领域可能还会冒出问题，消费者被银根紧缩压得喘不过气——他们需要信贷。我们是否已经度过了最糟糕的阶段？——
problems that could still come up from credit cards, from other areas, from consumers getting pinched for-- needing credit. Are we through the worst of it? And--
巴菲特哦，我觉得我们肯定——住宅地产十有八九已经过了最难的时候。而且——而且——原因是我们的新房开工量少了很多，同时——家庭还在不断组建，所以这个问题会随时间自行消化。不会是一天一周的事，但终究会解决。所以我们在那方面走得更远了。信用卡和商业地产方面，我们还会出现不寻常的亏损，这些都跑不了。但我们的处境比一年前好多了。我是说，就拿一点来说，一些——一些有毒资产已经被清掉了。资本也募集上来了。我们——我们比一年前好得没法比——比一年前强太多了。
BUFFETTOh, I think we're certainly—we’re through the worst of it in residential real estate in all probability. And-- and-- and the reason is we're building a lot fewer houses and we're-- and we're forming households, so that solves itself over time. Doesn't do it in a day or a week, but it solves itself. So we're further on that. We're gonna have unusual losses in credit cards and in commercial real estate, all of that. But we're a lot better off than we were a year ago. I mean for one thing on some of the-- some of the toxic assets have been flushed through. There's been capital raised. There’s -- we're immeasurably better than we were-- off than we were a year ago.
贝基但会不会出现二次探底的风险？失业率会不会攀升到某个水平，使其变成先行指标而非滞后指标？
BECKYBut is there a risk of a second downturn? Will unemployment levels climb to a point where it becomes a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator?
巴菲特我——我认为情况大幅恶化的可能性非常小。目前差不多已经在底部盘整了，但要是再来个什么可怕的外部冲击，比如像 9/11 那种事件，甚至更糟——你知道的，可能会出点极具破坏性的事，让一切从头再来。不过就我们已经发现并正在处理的问题而言，后面还会有些麻烦。但我们——我们——我们已经过了——我们已经过了最关键的节点。
BUFFETTI-- I think the odds are very much against getting significantly worse. It's sort of plateaued at the-- at the bottom right now, but if you got some horrible exogenous event, some-- some, you know, 9/11-- type event or worse-- you know, you could have something that would be dis-- really disruptive and start things all over again. But in terms of problems that we've identified and are working with, we've got more to come. But we're-- we're-- we're past the-- we're past the critical point.
贝基·奎克你们最关注哪些经济指标？有没有一组数据？或者说，有没有一些你们最密切关注的统计数字？
BECKYWhat are the most important economic indicators that you watch? Is there a series of numbers? Are there-- some statistics that you look at most closely?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯，我每天都看我们的业务。但我——我什么都看。我的意思是，我——我——我看货车装载量，我看美联储的资产负债表，什么都看。我的意思是，我——而且——我们还没有反弹——但下滑已经止住了。我——而且——这——世界会复苏的。我从来都判断不了这需要一周、一个月还是六个月。但我们在好转。而且——而且，如果你看看房价和中低价位的房屋活动，跟一年前相比变化巨大。我们正在看到一些稳定。
BUFFETTWell, I look at our businesses every day. But I-- I look at everything. I mean I-- I-- I look at car loadings. I look at the Fed's balance sheet. Whatever it may be. I mean I-- and-- and we have not bounced-- but we've quit going down. I'm and-- and it—the world will come back. I've never been able to tell whether it's gonna be a week or a month or-- six months. But we are on the mend. And-- and if you look at-- at housing prices and activity in the mid to lower price range, it changed dramatically from a year ago. We're seeing some stability.
贝基好。那我换个角度问。假如你在一个荒岛上待一个月，只能拿到一组数据。你会选哪一组？
BECKYAll right. Let me go at this another way. Let's pretend you're on a desert island for a month. There's only one set of numbers you can get. What would it be?
巴菲特嗯，我可能会看——也许看铁路货运量，还有——也许——还有——还有卡车运输量，但我想看大量数据。（笑声）
BUFFETTWell, I would probably look at-- perhaps freight car loadings and-- perhaps-- and-- and truck tonnage moved and-- but I’d want to look at a lot of figures. (LAUGHTER)
贝基你是最大的股东——伯克希尔·哈撒韦是卡夫最大的股东。卡夫收购吉百利的出价划算吗？
BECKYYou are the biggest shareholder-- Berkshire Hathaway is the biggest shareholder in Kraft. Is the Kraft bid to go after Cadbury a good one?
巴菲特嗯，这一年的内容相当充实。我是说——卡夫——卡夫公司——在任何一起并购交易中，你知道——那种动物精神都会高涨，诸如此类。但卡夫还有一个不利因素，就是它用了一只被低估的股票。所以如果你——如果你的一部分货币是一支价值被低估的股票……
BUFFETTWell, it's a pretty full one. I mean-- the-- Kraft-- Kraft has got-- anytime you're in a takeover, you know, that-- the animal spirits run high and all of that. But Kraft has the disadvantage of using an undervalued stock. So if you-- if part of your currency is a stock that's worth more money
而其售价却低于其价值——你是在用商定的全价买别人的资产，但换作是你自己的资产，你绝不会以类似的市场价出售。这……这让游戏变得很难玩。所以，这本身就是个全价买卖。
than it's selling for and you're-- you're paying full negotiated value for the other guy’s property and you wouldn't sell your own property for anything like the market price, it's-- it's a-- it makes it a tough game. So it's-- it's a full price.
贝基这听起来，似乎你对这次收购并不赞同？
BECKYAre-- that makes it sound like as if you're not in favor of this bid?
巴菲特不，我……我对（卡夫 CEO）艾琳·罗森菲尔德非常有信心。她会……但他们必须做好很多事，才能让这个出价显得合理。
BUFFETTNo, I-- I've got a lot of confidence in (Kraft CEO) Irene Rosenfeld. She'll-- but they have to do a lot of things right to justify this price.
贝基·奎克沃伦，你知道……根据最近提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件，显示你在减持……部分医疗保健类持仓，像 WellPoint、联合健康集团（United Healthcare）。是因为你担心华盛顿那边提出的医疗改革方案，会影响这些业务吗？
BECKYYou know, Warren-- at the last filings released for the SEC it showed that you were selling-- some of your healthcare holdings. WellPoint, United Healthcare. Is that because you worry that the healthcare proposals out there in Washington might now affect the business?
巴菲特不，那些不是我的持仓，是卢·辛普森的。我从来都没买过医疗保健……呃，任何……好吧，在医疗保健股里找过工作——我是说，做过交易。但就那些……那些……那些保险公司或医疗服务商而言，那些不是我的持仓。我……我从来没买过一股 WellPoint 或联合健康（United Health）的股票。
BUFFETTNo, those are not my holdings. Those are Lou Simpson’s. I've never bought a healthcare shock that I-- any-- well, jobs-- jobs in a healthcare stock. But in terms of the-- of the-- of the insurers or providers-- those are not my holdings. I-- I've never bought a share in WellPoint or United Health.
贝基·奎克你怎么看……当前关于医保的讨论，以及事态的发展走向？
BECKYWhat do you think about the-- the talk towards health care and where things are headed right now?
巴菲特嗯，我觉得……遗憾的是，我认为我们……我们真正在讨论的，与其说是医疗体系本身的改革，不如说只是医保改革。所以……那些导致医疗支出占到 GDP 16% 左右的激励机制，我觉得遗憾的是，它们正……它们将发生改变。所以……我觉得我们确实……我现在讨论医保改革的篇幅，和讨论医疗改革的篇幅差不多。而且我认为，如果我们不花更多精力审视现有体系下的激励机制、以及理想体系中的激励机制应该是什么样子，就可能会错失良机。
BUFFETTWell, I think that-- unfortunately, I think that the -- what-- what-- we're really talking about reforming health insurance more than health care. So I-- the incentives that produce the 16 or so percent of GDP that's going to health care, I think unfortunately they're getting-- they're going to get changed. But-- so I think that we really-- and I'm talking as much about reforming health care as we're talking about reforming the insurance. And I think that will be an opportunity missed if we don't do more about looking at what-- what the incentives are in the present system and what they would be in an ideal system.
贝基·奎克最后一个问题。如果……如果让你……再给个判断，你目前对经济的看法，跟三个月前相比，是没什么变化，还是更乐观了？
BECKYAnd then finally, if-- if you had to-- give a gauge of where you stand on the economy again right now-- versus what you were thinking three months ago, is it the same? Is it better?
巴菲特情况没有变得更糟，但也没怎么好转。不过，随着时间的推移，住宅房地产市场确实有所改善。这很重要。有些领域还没怎么感受到冲击，比如商业地产。但我们正在一步步穿越衰退。我……我……我看不出任何迹象，让我需要担心前景会比三个月前预想的更差。
BUFFETTIt-- it hasn't gotten worse. It hasn't gotten much better either. But the very fact that time is passing, it's-- it's gotten better in residential real estate. That’s important. Certain things haven't hit much yet. Commercial real estate, for example. But we are moving through a recession. And-- and- - and I see nothing that makes me worry about the fact that it's going to be worse than I would have thought three months ago.
贝基·奎克再次感谢你，沃伦，感谢你今天抽出时间接受我们的采访。
BECKYAnd, again, Warren, we want to thank you for your time for joining us today.
巴菲特谢谢你。
BUFFETTThank you.