2014 年股东会后 CNBC 巴菲特、芒格与盖茨访谈

2014-05-05 · 伯克希尔、可口可乐、科技与人生 · 原文约 16778 词
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比尔·盖茨、查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特一起拍了张自拍,由 CNBC 的贝基·奎克在奥马哈掌镜。在这段直播访谈中,巴菲特说,从他接触前来奥马哈的大学生的经验来看,自拍“正大火特火”。

Bill Gates, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett participate in a "selfie" taken by CNBC's Becky Quick in Omaha. In this live interview, Buffett says that based on his experiences with college students who visit Omaha, selfies are "all the rage."

这是沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格和比尔·盖茨于 2014 年 5 月 5 日星期一,在 CNBC《Squawk Box》节目中与贝基·奎克进行现场对话的非官方文字记录。

This is an unofficial transcript of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates appearing live with Becky Quick on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Monday, May 5, 2014.

贝基·奎克,CNBC我们今天早上在内布拉斯加家具城进行现场直播,它是伯克希尔众多业务中的一家。沃伦,这家店每到股东周末,生意量确实会出现巨大井喷。这周末的成交数字大概是多少,以及你估计实际上有多少股东来了这里?

BECKY QUICK, CNBCWe are live this morning from the Nebraska Furniture Mart, which is one of many Berkshire businesses. Warren, this business in particular, really sees a huge surge of business on the shareholders weekend. What kind of numbers have come through here and how many shareholders do you think were actually here this weekend?

沃伦·巴菲特(伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼 CEO):我们这周在家具城能做超过 4000 万美元的生意。这量很大了。大多数家具店一年都做不了这么多,而且这周是我们全年生意最好的一周。实际上,这相当于一个正常月份的营业额。这家店一年能做 4.5 亿美元左右。所以一周等于一个正常月份,全挤在一周里完成了。股东们也一年比一年兴奋。我是说,在一两个月前,我就在电梯里碰到人。他们拍着我的背,说感谢我举办股东大会,其实就是想提前来逛家具城。

WARREN BUFFETT, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CHAIRMAN & CEO: We'll do over $40 million in one week here at the Furniture Mart. That's a lot of business. Most furniture stores don't do that in a year, and it's our biggest week of the year. In fact, it's a normal month. We do about $450 million a year at this store. So it's a normal month, and we do it all in a week. And the stockholders get more excited every year. I mean, I run into people in the elevator a month or two ahead of time. They say thank you for holding the meeting, patting me on the back. They want to come on to the Furniture Mart.

贝基你之前告诉我们你预计今年大概会有 3.8 万人。现在你觉得实际数字是多少?

BECKYSo you told us before you expected maybe 38,000 people this year. What do you think the numbers were?

巴菲特不会低于这个数。这是迄今规模最大的一次股东大会,而且优势相当明显,因为我们不仅坐满了主会堂,三个备用厅也全满了,还溢到了希尔顿酒店,展厅里都是人。我们永远拿不到精确数字,但我敢肯定,比过去最高纪录至少要多出 3000 人。就算多出 5000 人,我也不会感到意外。

BUFFETTNot any less than that. This was the biggest meeting by quite a margin because we filled not only the main auditorium, but we filled all three overflow rooms and spilled over to the Hilton, and there were people in the exhibition hall. We can never get a perfect count, but I'm sure we beat anything in the past by at least 3,000. And I wouldn't be surprised if we beat it by 5,000.

贝基所以你估计的数字大约在 3.8 万到 4 万人之间?

BECKYSo somewhere between 38 and 40,000 is what you're guessing?

巴菲特对。

BUFFETTYes.

贝基我们来聊聊乔刚才提到的事。我今天早上还来不及看十年期美国国债收益率。他提到现在是 2.75%。你认为为什么会这样?这是市场对形势有所担忧的信号吗?你怎么看?

BECKYLet's talk a little bit about what Joe was mentioning. I had not seen the ten-year (U.S. note yield) yet this morning. He talked about how it was 2.75 percent. Why do you think this is? Is this a sign of concern about what's happening? What would be your guess?

巴菲特我不知道。我对利率不太在行。有一件事我知道,十年后收益率大概率不会还卡在 2.57% 或 3.57% 这种位置。

BUFFETTI don't know. I'm not good on interest rates. One thing I know ten years from now they probably won't be at 2.57 or 3.57.

贝基·奎克不过,当你看到十年期收益率持续下行,会不会引起你的注意?大多数人本来都认为它今年铁定要涨上去。

BECKYDoes it catch your attention, though, when you see the ten-year continue to decline? Most people thought it would definitely would have to go up this year.

巴菲特这确实令人意外,不过我早已习惯市场带来的意外。我们时不时会发债,所以利率越低,我们越发喜欢发债,也越喜欢发更长期的债。

BUFFETTIt's surprising, but I'm used to getting surprised in markets. And we issue bonds from time to time. So lower rates are, the more we like to issue them, and the longer we like to issue them.

贝基·奎克那十年期国债收益率处在这个水平,会不会改变你们在业务上的任何做法?你会不会因此做任何不同的事情?

BECKYSo would a ten-year at this level change any of your behavior in the business? Would you do anything differently?

巴菲特不会。利率上涨或下跌 50 个基点,我们都不会因此做任何不同的事情。伯克希尔不对宏观因素做出反应。我们的宏观因素就是这个国家长期会越来越好。它指引着我们做的每一件事。

BUFFETTNo, if it moved up or 50 basis points or down 50 basis points, we would not do anything differently. We don't react to macro factors at Berkshire. Our macro factor is the country will do better over time. That guides us in everything we do.

贝基·奎克如果现在非让你猜一个,你认为十年期国债收益率到年底会高于 3% 还是低于 3%?

BECKYIf you had to make a guess right now, would you guess that the ten-year would end the year above or below the 3 percent?

巴菲特我不去考虑那个。如果你非要我挑一个数字,我会挑比现在高的。

BUFFETTI don't think about that. If you told me I had to pick a figure, I would pick higher.

贝基我们来说说股东大会上反复被提起的一个问题——其实也就提过那么几次,但我确实收到了一个

BECKYLet's talk about one of the issues that came up repeatedly at the shareholders meeting, actually it only came up a couple times, but I did get a

我的邮箱里收到大量与此相关的股东来信。那就是可口可乐。乔(科南)今早已经提过了。我们来聊聊事情经过。我知道我们已经说了很多,但外界还是有些批评的声音。有些人无法理解,如果你认为可口可乐的股权计划过于慷慨,为什么不在投票前表态,为什么不用你持有的 9.1% 流通股投反对票。

lot of questions related to it in my email box where shareholders were sending things in. That's Coca-Cola. Joe (Kernen) already alluded to that this morning. And let's talk about what has happened. I know we've had a lot to say, but there was some criticism. Some people who didn't understand why if you thought Coca-Cola's equity plan was excessive, you didn't say something before the vote and you didn't take your 9.1 percent of the outstanding shares and vote no.

巴菲特是的。我们没想过,也永远不会想和可口可乐开战。可口可乐是一家了不起的公司,它对我们也非常好,管理层对我们一向完全坦诚。我认为我们选对了领导者——我确信选对了,就是穆泰尔·肯特——但我们确实觉得这个计划有些过度了。抱着这两种看法,我们觉得最好的做法是私下向管理层表达意见,他们认真听取了我们的观点,而我们则在本次股东大会上投了弃权票。我们相信——我也知道,从现在到他们实施任何计划之前,我们会和可口可乐进行一些非常富有建设性的对话。

BUFFETTYeah. We had no desire, never will have a desire to go to war with Coca-Cola. It's a wonderful company, it's treated us wonderfully, the management has always been totally candid with us. I think we've got the right leader. I'm sure we've got the right leader, Muhtar Kent, but we did think the program was excessive. With those two beliefs we felt the best thing to do was express our opinions privately to the management who listened carefully and to abstain from voting at this meeting. And we think — I know we'll have some very constructive discussions with Coca-Cola between now and when they implement any plan.

贝基周末《巴伦周刊》登了篇文章,作者是卡尔·伊坎。我知道你和卡尔是朋友,你们俩都在“捐赠誓言”上签名,但这篇文章说的是“为什么巴菲特对可口可乐的看法错了”。他的风格跟你不一样。

BECKYBarron's out over the weekend, there was an article in the back of it from Carl Icahn. I know you're friends with Carl and you're both on the Giving Pledge together, but this article says why Buffet is wrong on Coke. He's got a different style than you do.

巴菲特我希望如此。

BUFFETTI hope so.

贝基你觉得——首先,你怎么看卡尔说的那些话,其次,你认为你的风格在这种情况下还能奏效吗?

BECKYDo you think — first of all, what do you think about what Carl said, and second of all, do you think that your style will be effective in this situation?

巴菲特我确实认为我们的风格会有效。而且我认为我们的风格实际上会比卡尔可能提出的风格更有效。但卡尔涉足的是其他类型的业务,他进入的领域——至少常常是——某个存在问题的领域。可口可乐没有问题。他们提出的是一项过度的计划。要让计划不过度,非常容易。你只需把授权期限拉长,超过他们在委托书中提到的四年期限就行。这很容易做到。至于该计划最终是否真的过度,将取决于他们之后采取的行动。他们并没有铁定必须要在四年内用完股东的授权。

BUFFETTI do think our styles will be effective. And I think our style actually will be more effective than the style that might be proposed by Carl. But Carl moves in other types of businesses and he goes in where — often, at least, he goes in where there's a problem. There isn't a problem at CocaCola. There was a plan that was proposed that was excessive. It's very easy to make it non-excessive. All you have to do is spread the authorization over more years than the four years they talked about having it in the proxy. And that's easy to do. Whether it actually turns out to be excessive will depend on the actions they take subsequent to this. They have not locked it in stone that they're going to use the stockholder four years.

总体上,或者说至少经常地,卡尔打交道的是态度截然不同的管理层,而那些管理层对他的态度,恐怕和可口可乐对我的态度也不一样。

I would say generally or frequently, at least, Carl is working with managements with different attitudes, and they probably have a different attitude toward him than Coke has towards me.

贝基你到现在和穆赫塔尔·肯特谈过了吗?周四我们采访你的时候你还没谈。

BECKYHave you spoken with Muhtar Kent to this point? When we talked to you Thursday you had not.

巴菲特那次会议之后,我再没跟他聊过。

BUFFETTI have not talked to him since the meeting.

贝基从可口可乐那场股东大会之后。

BECKYSince the Coca-Cola meeting.

巴菲特自可口可乐那次会议以来,那是 23 号开的。

BUFFETTSince Coca-Cola's meeting, which was on the 23rd.

贝基本周末还有另一个股东提出的尖锐问题——我的收件箱里也收到了好几个类似版本——您的儿子霍华德·巴菲特在董事会任职。他对这项计划投了赞成票,这让一些人产生了质疑。霍华德预计将在您离开公司后担任董事长,成为公司文化的守护者。但他对一个您本人都不喜欢的计划投了赞成票,这是否会引发任何疑问,或者股东们是否应该对他守护文化的能力有所怀疑?

BECKYOne other pointed question that came from shareholders this weekend — and I got several iterations of this, too, in my inbox — your son, Howard Buffet, is on the board. He voted in favor of this plan and there were some people who questioned. Howard is expected to be the chairman when you step away from the company to be the protector of the culture there. Does this raise any questions or should shareholders have questions about his ability to protect the culture when he voted for a plan that you, yourself, didn't like?

巴菲特是的。这些年来我投票支持过不少薪酬计划——我在董事会待了 55 年。我投过自己并不喜欢的计划。实际上,我还投过自己并不看好的收购案。当然,我也反对过一些,但枪膛里的子弹就那么多。你要是对这事那事都反对,很快大家就不把你当回事了。你得把子弹留到真正重要的时刻。我见过薪酬委员会走进董事会的次数,少说也有几百回,但从来没听过哪次他们带着建议进来,结果却遭到否决。

BUFFETTYeah. I voted for plans over the years — I've on the board for 55 years. I voted for plans I didn't like. I actually voted for acquisitions I didn't like. I opposed a few too, but there's only so many bullets you can use in the gun. If you start objecting to this and this and this, pretty soon people don't pay any attention to you. You want to save your bullets for when they really count. And I have never seen a comp committee come into a boardroom, in all my time, and hundreds of times, I've never seen them come in with a recommendation and heard a no vote.

董事会把任务交给一个委员会。他们会说,你们去处理这件事。他们可能对州长委员会说,你们去负责物色董事人选,干各种杂事。

The board delegates to a committee. They say you go out and work on this. They may say to the Governor's committee, you go out and work on getting directors, all kinds of things.

一旦董事会把这事交给某个委员会,委员会花了好几个小时研究,然后向董事会汇报,而议程上还有 20 个其他事项,主席请薪酬委员会作报告,30 秒就讲完了——这报告从没被投票否决过。而且,要是突然有人说“我有更好的想法”,那会被视为侵犯委员会职权:我没跟薪酬顾问谈过、没看过数据,却依然有更好的主意。这种事根本不会发生。

And once a board has delegated to a committee and they've spent hours working on something, and then they report it and there's 20 other items on the agenda and the Chairman calls on the comp committee to give his report and gives it in about 30 seconds, it never gets voted against. And it would be regarded as sort of usurping the power of the committee to all of a sudden say I've got a better idea. I haven't talked to the compensation consultants, I haven't looked at the figures, but I still have a better idea. It doesn't happen.

贝基·奎克你对公司治理的评论让很多人感到震惊。我觉得大家震惊的不是你说的话本身,而是你竟然会说出口。一直以来都有一种看法,认为董事会都是一团和气的俱乐部,而你基本就是公开承认了这一点。

BECKYA lot of people have been stunned by your comments on corporate governance. I don't think stunned by what you've said, but that you said it. There's been this idea that boards are clubby, basically come out and said that's the case.

巴菲特这话我已经写了 30 年。我见过很多董事会的运作方式。每次读到学术界关于董事会的讨论,我都觉得很有趣。我有一个理论——我可能可以去演电影什么的。但董事会既是商业组织,也是社交组织。人们走进那个房间时,行为已经被几十种因素塑造好了——通常你的人都是这样。

BUFFETTI've written that for 30 years. I've seen boards operate. It's always interesting to me to read academic discussions of boards. I have this theory — I could be in the movies or something. But boards are in part business organizations and in part social organizations. People walk into those with their behavior formed by dozens of — usually your people have

他们在社区里或许也取得了一定的地位。所以,他们学会了如何与他人相处。而且,他们不会在走进董事会会议室时突然改变自己的本色。因此,他们强烈的倾向是做出在社会上被接受的行为,而不一定是商业上利益最大化的行为。动机是好的;但行为是由几十年前形成的。

achieved some standing, perhaps, in the community. So they've learned how to get along with other people. And they don't suddenly change their stripes when they come into a board meeting. So there's a great tendency to behave in a socially acceptable way and not necessarily in a business maximization way. The motives are good; the behavior is formed by decades earlier.

大多数人希望跟别人和睦相处。卡尔可能没别人那么强烈。我喜欢卡尔,但他可能享受对抗——有些人确实这样。一般来说,如果你是个好斗的人,就不会有人请你进董事会。

And people like to get along with other people, most people. Carl, maybe not as strongly as others. I love Carl, but he may enjoy battle. Some people do that. Generally you don't get invited on boards if you've got a person that actually loves a fight.

贝基你的意思是,这和世界各地的情况没有太大差别。

BECKYYour point is that this is not too much different than the rest of the world.

巴菲特没错,我觉得确实是这样。这不等于说你避免冲突就办不成事,也不等于说有些议题——我也经历过几次,董事会上有人提出收购某家公司的方案,结果被否决了。那种情况下,最后总有一个人会忍不住开口。有点像那个说皇帝没穿衣服的小孩,大家都会跟着附和。但第一个开口的人就像在餐桌上打了个嗝。然后有时候别人也开始打嗝,局面就渐渐转向了。得看具体情况,但有些人在这种事上有勇气跟着起哄,却没勇气第一个挑头。你在人类行为的其他方面也见过这种现象。

BUFFETTYeah, I think that's very true. And it doesn't mean because you don't get into fights that you can't get things done, and it doesn't mean there aren't certain issues that — I've been involved with a couple situations where a proposal to buy a company has come to the board and been shot down. What happens in that case is one person finally pipes up. It's a little like the kid saying the Emperor is wearing no clothes and everybody will come on board. But the first person to speak is like belching at the dinner table. And then sometimes other people start belching and the move away from you. Depends on the situation, but there are some people that have bravery to be followers in a situation like that but not to initiate it. You've seen that in other aspects of human behavior.

贝基安德鲁在 CNBC 总部也有一个问题。安德鲁?

BECKYAndrew has a question from back at CNBC headquarters, too. Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金(CNBC)我正想说,沃伦说的这番话确实相当坦诚。问题在于,情况是否本该如此。从外部来看,人们是否觉得在董事会上大家会更激烈、更勇敢、更愿意挺身而出,或者认为社会议题不该影响人们的行为方式或思维方式——尽管它们实际上确实会影响。我听你刚才说的意思是,现实就是这样。那我的问题是:现状就该是这样吗?

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, CNBCI was going to say it's remarkably honest what Warren is saying. The question is whether it should be this way. Whether from the outside there's a sense that people are more strident in the boardroom, more brave or willing to come forward, or that the social issues aren't supposed to impact the way people behave or the way they think. Even though of course they do. I hear you saying this is what happens. My question is should it happen this way?

巴菲特嗯,不,显然你们都知道,每个人都可以畅所欲言,诸如此类的事也会鼓励对话,董事长也很乐意听听为什么他的主意行不通,但实际情况并非如此。

BUFFETTWell, no, obviously you know everybody would speak freely and all of that sort of thing, and dialogue would be encouraged and the chairman would love to hear reasons why his ideas were no good, but it isn't quite that way.

我觉得很可能——你会看到一些这样的情况。我给你们举个很好的例子。1987 年,我们买了 7 亿美元的所罗门优先股,对伯克希尔来说,这是一笔很大的投资。

And I think it's probably — you will get some of that. I will give you a great example. I mean, we bought $700 million worth of Solomon Preferred in 1987. It was a big investment for Berkshire.

查理和我进入了董事会。我们的优先股在 38 美元时可转换,因为此前该股票的交易价格一直在 35 美元左右。

Charlie and I were put on the board. Our preferred was convertible at 38 because the stock had been selling in the mid 30s.

我们参加了入董事会后的第一次会议,时间是 1987 年 10 月 19 日之后不久,当时我俩是两位全新的董事。议程上的第一项议题,就是把所罗门所有已发行期权的行权价,从每股三十多美元下调到 17 美元。没有人提议把我们的可转换优先股转换价从 38 美元降到 37.50 美元,但员工持有的价内期权——包括在座各位董事的期权——都会被调整到每股 17 美元。查理和我投票赞成了。我们大概只是含含糊糊地投了赞成票。但这种事时有发生。后来我们在所罗门也反对过几件事。不过你不能反对得太多。

We went to the very first board meeting, was right after October 19th, 1987, here we are two brand-new directors. One of the first items on the agenda was the change, the option price of all the options outstanding at Solomon from prices in their 30s, down to $17 a share. Nobody proposed to change our conversion price from $38 down to 37.50, but the $35 options the employees were getting — including the people sitting at the table were going to get changed down to $17 a share. Charlie and I voted for it. We probably mumbled our vote. But those things happen. And we later on objected to a few things at Solomon, too. But you can't object a lot.

还有一点很重要,安德鲁,你听好了。在任何一家公司,都有不少董事一年赚二三十万美元,这笔钱对他们来说很重要。他们真正希望的是能被邀请去其他董事会任职。如果一个 CEO 找上另一个 CEO,说听说你们董事会里有某某人,我们正好缺一位女性董事或者别的什么,那她自然会乖乖听话。

And bear in mind, too, Andrew, this is important. There are a number of directors at any company that are making two or three hundred thousand dollars a year, and that money is important to them. And what they really hope is they get invited to go on other boards. Now if a CEO comes to another CEO and says I hear you've got so-and-so on the board, we need another woman or whatever it may be, oh, she will behave.

如果他们说她每次会上都搅得天翻地覆,那下一届董事会她肯定进不去了。相反,要是他们说她建设性强,薪酬委员会的建议全都在点子上,等等,那她又会拿到一份年薪 30 万美元的差事。这就是真实的世界。

If they say she raises hell at every meeting, she's not going to be on the next board. On the other hand, if they say she's constructive, her compensation committee recommendations have been spot on, et cetera, she's got another $300,000 a year job. That's the real world.

安德鲁快速追问一下。今天早上的《华尔街日报》提到,你在 2009 年说过一句话——你说要就最恶劣的 CEO 薪酬案例公开表态,原话是,“要让大人物改变行为,就得让他们难堪。”我希望你能试着解释一下,你当时在 2009 年说的那番话,和今天可口可乐这件事之间,区别到底在哪。

ANDREWOne quick follow up. In the Wall Street Journal this morning, they were pointing out a comment you made in 2009, when you talked about speaking out on the most egregious cases of CEO compensation, and you said quote, the way to get big shots to change their behavior is to embarrass them. I was hoping you could try to explain the distinction between what you were talking about then in 2009 and, perhaps, this Coca-Cola situation today.

巴菲特嗯,我倒不是真想给可口可乐公司难堪。我喜欢他们的人,方方面面都喜欢。但我想,如果你去问某些人的话——我不知道他们会不会用“难堪”这个词——但他们肯定宁愿我没这么做。

BUFFETTWell, I don't really want to embarrass the Coca-Cola Company. I like the people and everything. But I think perhaps if you ask some people, I don't know whether they use the word "embarrass," but they would prefer I didn't do it, I'm sure.

就像我说的,我 2009 年用了那个词,所以现在就甩不掉了。我不是想让他们难堪,但我确实希望他们重新审视自己的做法。他们现在处于重新审视的有利位置,因为这次授权他们至今一股都没动过。尽管他们在委托书里说打算在四年内完成回购,但这个安排随时可以调整。

Like I say, I used that word in 2009, so I'm stuck with it. I wasn't looking to embarrass them, but I was certainly looking to have them reexamine what they're doing. They're in a great position to reexamine it, because they haven't used a share in this authorization yet. And even though they said in the proxy statement that they expected to use it over four years, that could easily be changed.

我印象中,他们通常在 1 月或 2 月发行期权。所以他们有充足的时间去思考什么是最优方案。他们也确实在思考。有一点我可以向你保证,他们都是体面、正派的人。他们会做正确的事。但我认为,最好的做法不是跟他们开战。

They generally issue, I believe, their options in either January or February. So they have a lot of time to think about what's best. And they are. The one thing I can guarantee you, they are decent, high-grade people. They will do what's right. But I don't believe the best way to do that is to go to war with them.

贝基沃伦,我快速插一个问题。你以前说过,有些交易被你否决了。我第一个想到的是桂格燕麦和可口可乐那笔。当时是怎么回事?

BECKYWarren, if I could ask just quickly, you said in the past there have been deals that you've shot down. My first thought is to Quaker Oats and Coca-Cola. How did that happen?

巴菲特嗯,那件事后来闹得人尽皆知。管理层基本上等于向全世界宣告可口可乐要收购桂格燕麦了。随后在纽约相当仓促地召集了一次会议,董事们走进会议室。我并不是第一个站出来反对的人——反对的理由是:用可口可乐大约 11% 的股权去换取主打产品佳得乐,虽说还搭了一堆其他食品,但可口可乐其实根本不想要那些食品,它想要的就是佳得乐。应该说,第一个提出反对意见的董事表示,在他看来,用可口可乐 11% 的股份去换佳得乐这一个单品,在数学上根本站不住脚。

BUFFETTWell, it got very public and basically the management sort of let the world know that Coca-Cola was buying Quaker Oats. And there was a meeting rather hastily called in New York, and directors went into that room. And I was not the first one to say that giving away 11 percent or so of the Coca-Cola Company to obtain Gatorade primarily, although a bunch of other foods came with it. But Coca-Cola really didn't want the foods, they wanted Gatorade. We thought the first proposed opposition to it, I should say, said he didn't think that mathematically made sense, to giveaway 11 percent of Coca-Cola to get a single product, Gatorade.

我走进会场时的想法也是一样的。只不过那次我没有第一个开口。后来我发了言,等我说完,这笔交易就被否决了。

I had come into the meeting feeling the same way. I just didn't speak first in that case. Then I spoke, and by the time I got through, the deal did not go through.

贝基结果整桌人都在打嗝?

BECKYAnd the whole table was belching?

巴菲特大多数人都在打嗝。那简直成了一场打嗝比赛。当时公司正打算走完整个流程。媒体的人也在场。我记得是在傍晚。所有人都顶着截稿压力,你知道的,只想赶紧把这事敲定。任何交易通常都会带着这种惯性。你不能一连反对五次。我是说,到那个份上你就完全起不了作用了。但那确实是一笔大交易。不少董事心里都有保留意见,随着第一位董事开口发言,这一点就表露无遗了。可其他董事大概本来是不会开口的。

BUFFETTMost of them were belching. It was sort of a belching contest there. And the company had the whole thing to go through. The press people were there. It was in the evening, as I remember. Everybody was on deadline, and, you know, let's get this done. There's usually that sort of momentum attached to any deal. You can't oppose five in a row. I mean, you become totally ineffective at that point. But that was a big deal. And a number of the directors had reservations about it, and that became apparent as this first director spoke up. But the other ones probably wouldn't have spoken up.

贝基包括您自己。

BECKYIncluding yourself.

巴菲特这我说不准。但我们永远也没法知道了。我想我多半会开口。我的意思是,那笔交易在我看来根本说不通。

BUFFETTI'm not sure. But we won't know that. I think I probably would have. I mean, that was not a deal that made sense to me.

贝基好的,沃伦,请稍等。我们得插播一段广告。但后面还有更多关于沃伦·巴菲特的内容。短暂广告之后,我们马上回来。

BECKYOkay, Warren, if you'll bear with us. We have to take a commercial break. But we have much more to come with Warren Buffet. We will be back after that very quick break.

另外,美国东部时间早上 8 点起,伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格和比尔·盖茨将作为我们的特邀嘉宾。届时我们将同台。这三位先生将一起在现场与大家交流。

Also starting at 8 a.m. Eastern time, Berkshire vice chairman, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates will be our special guest. We will be sharing a stage. All three of those gentlemen will be with us live.

安德鲁,我把话头交回给你。

Andrew, I'll send it back over to you.

安德鲁好的,贝基。

ANDREWOkay, Becky.

(插播广告)

(Commercial break)

贝基好的。谢谢你,乔。

BECKYOkay. Thanks, Joe.

我们现在又回到了沃伦·巴菲特身边。沃伦,本周末股东大会结束后,我们聊到今年来了 3.8 万到 4 万名股东。观众席里总能看到不少有意思的人。周六早上,凯西·爱尔兰还和你一起在那儿扔报纸。

We are back again with Warren Buffett. And, Warren, after the shareholders meeting this weekend we talked about how they were thirty-eight to forty thousand shareholders here. There are always a number of interesting people to see in this audience. Kathy Ireland was there with you tossing newspapers on Saturday morning.

巴菲特她本人当年也是个送报工。

BUFFETTShe was a newspaper carrier herself.

贝基对。她干得不错。比尔·阿克曼来了,戴维·温特斯也来了,金融界的大腕们几乎都到了。还有马里奥·加贝利,3G 的豪尔赫·保罗也来了,我碰见他好几次。在亨氏这个项目上你和 3G 合作——首先,亨氏现在怎么样?其次,以后你还会跟豪尔赫·保罗的 3G 做更多类似交易吗?

BECKYRight. She did a good job. Bill Ackman was here, David Winters, the glitterati of the financial world. Mario Gabelli, also Jorge Paulo was here from 3G. I ran into him a couple of times. The partnership that you with 3G when it comes to Heinz — first of all, how is Heinz doing? And second of all, would you do more deals like this with 3G with Jorge Paulo.

巴菲特对。亨氏交易进展很顺利。这一点我一点也不意外。如果单靠我们自己,我们肯定不会做亨氏这笔交易,至少不会以那个价格出手。我最佩服的人就是豪尔赫·保罗,我还会加上他那些在运营能力上同样出色的伙伴。能有机会和他合作,真是太棒了。我很乐意再和他们联手。

BUFFETTYeah. The Heinz deal is going well. Is that doesn't surprise me at all. We would not have done Heinz by ourselves, certainly at that price. There is no one I'm more impressed with than Jorge Paulo. I will add his associates in terms of their operating abilities. The chance to join him was terrific. I would love to join them again.

我喜欢他们的一点,是敢想敢干。他们迟早会搞出个大动作。可能是明年,也可能是后年,谁知道呢。我觉得,要是他们需要财务上的合作伙伴,他们会来找我们。

One thing I like about them, is they think big. They're likely to come up with a big one some day. Maybe next year, maybe the year after, who knows when. And I think if they need some financial — a financial partner, I think they'll do it with us.

所以,能与豪尔赫·保罗及其合伙人建立合作关系,对伯克希尔来说是一大加分项。

So it's a big plus for Berkshire to have an association with Jorge Paulo, and his associates.

贝基你们两位现在在谋划什么吗?

BECKYIs there anything the two of you are cooking up right now?

巴菲特嗯,他负责下厨,我负责品尝。他的脑子里无时无刻不在想着可能的交易。我们绝对不会做任何敌意收购,这一点已经排除了。但电话铃一响,对方说是豪尔赫打来的,我就觉得心里踏实。

BUFFETTWell, he does the cooking and I do the tasting. His mind is incapable of not thinking about possible deals. And we will not do anything ever hostile at all, that's ruled out. But when the phone rings and they say it's Jorge calling, I feel good.

贝基所以他上周末在这儿。我们聊过这事儿。伯克希尔现在手上持有多少现金?

BECKYSo he was here this weekend. We talked about that. How much cash do you have on hand at Berkshire now?

巴菲特嗯,把所有被监管子公司以外的资产都算上,我们大概有 470 亿美元左右,差不多这个数。

BUFFETTWell, counting everything except the regulated subsidiaries, we have probably have around 47 billion, something like this.

贝基·奎克您喜欢手头留 200 亿美元,所以那仍然给您留出 200 亿美元可以操作。

BECKYYou like to keep 20 billion on hand, so that still gives you 20 billion to play with.

巴菲特是的,而且我们还能很快筹集更多资金。

BUFFETTYeah, and we could raise more pretty fast.

贝基怎么做到的?

BECKYHow?

巴菲特我们可以通过发债来筹集,也可以出售证券来筹集。我们有远远超过 1000 亿美元的证券,实际上超过 1500 亿美元。但我们能拿得出来——我很乐意就这一点被挑战。

BUFFETTWe could raise them by debt, but we can also raise them by selling securities. We have well over 100 billion in securities. We have over 150 as far as that's concerned. But we could come up with — I like to be challenged on that.

贝基·奎克如果真是那样,假如我们确实需要快速筹措一笔资金,因为你看到了一个你确实喜欢的交易,你会最先卖出哪只证券?

BECKYIf that were the case, if we did have to come up with some money quickly because you saw a deal you really liked, what would be the security you would sell first?

巴菲特嗯,要是情况紧急,我们可能会借钱,然后在更长的时间里陆续卖出证券。但我们会看证券的价格——那个天天在变——也会看我对公司本身的看法,这个看法不是天天变,但会随着时间推移而改变。

BUFFETTWell, if we had to do it very quickly, we might borrow some money and sell securities over a longer period of time. But we would look at the prices of the securities, which change daily, and we would look at what I think about the companies, which doesn't change daily but does change over time.

如果我们急需一大笔钱,那确实得盯着些更大的标的。不过既然今天没谈成什么交易,我也犯不着琢磨今天该卖什么。

And if we needed a lot of money, we would have to be looking at some of the bigger things. But since I don't have a deal today, I don't have to think about what I would sell today.

贝基正好说到你们实际持有的几只股票——你周末提到,你最近和通用汽车的玛丽·巴拉一起吃了顿午饭。

BECKYJust to get to some of those securities that you do own, you mentioned over the weekend that you met recently with Mary Barra of GM for lunch.

巴菲特对。

BUFFETTRight.

贝基你是怎么想的——

BECKYWhat did you think —

巴菲特我只是在某次会议上见到她。

BUFFETTI just met her at a conference.

贝基是在《财富》杂志最具影响力女性大会上吗?

BECKYAt that the Fortune Most Powerful Women conference?

巴菲特没错,就是那次。那是我第一次见到她。我个人并不持有那只股票,在伯克希尔,这笔投资也不是我做的。我们两位投资经理中的一位持有。

BUFFETTYeah, exactly. And that was the first time I'd seen her. I don't own that stock, personally, at Berkshire. One of our two managers does.

但玛丽在场,我觉得她相当出色。她肯定能在伯克希尔管理一家公司,这点毫无疑问。她热爱汽车。我跟她说,她就是个汽车迷。从里到外,她对汽车了如指掌。不管聊到哪个方面,她都知道有什么影响,重量、款式、价格之间如何权衡取舍。我是说,她真的把汽车摸得透透的。而且她热爱通用汽车。她父亲在那里干了很多年。她天生就是干这行的料。

But Mary was there, and I think she's terrific. She can run a company at Berkshire, that's for sure. She loves cars. I told her she was a car guy. Just all the way through, and she knows cars. Every aspect of it that you get into, she knows the impact, the tradeoffs involved between weight and style and price. I mean, she just has cars down forward and backward. And she loves General Motors. Her father was there a long period of time. She's made for the job.

贝基你对通用汽车这次召回新闻有什么担忧吗?这件事显然发生在她上任之前。有没有什么让你重新考虑现在是否还要持有这只股票?

BECKYHave you had any concerns about the GM recall news? Obviously that happened before her time. Anything that made you reconsider whether you own the stock right now?

巴菲特嗯,还是那句话,这事不是我能决定的。实际上是泰德·韦施勒在管,但她接手的是一个烂摊子,而且这个烂摊子还不小。美国民众特别关注这件事,因为政府在 2009 年救了通用汽车,而这些事故都发生在救助之前。不过,通用汽车在大多数美国人心中占据很显眼的位置。买车对他们来说是件大事。

BUFFETTWell, again, it wouldn't be my decision. Actually, it's Ted Weschler's decision, but she inherited a mess, and it's not a small one. It's a particular concern to the American public because the government did save General Motors in 2009, and these events which happened prior to that. But General Motors is in the forefront of most Americans. Buying cars are important to them.

所以玛丽基本上如坐针毡。但这把火不是她点的。我不认为有人能比她处理得更好。这事不可能在一周或一个月内解决。这类问题的性质就是这样,注定要拖上一阵子。

So Mary is basically on a hot seat. But it's a not a seat of her own making. I don't think there's anybody that will be better at handling it. It won't be handled in a week or a month. It's the nature of problems like that to go on a while.

贝基沃伦·巴菲特是我们的特邀嘉宾。接下来还会有很多内容,我们先交回给各位。

BECKYWarren Buffett is our guest host. We will have a lot more coming up. We'll send it back to you guys.

(广告时间。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基欢迎回来,各位。今天我们的客座主持人是沃伦·巴菲特,我们在奥马哈的内布拉斯加家具城为您现场报道。

BECKYWelcome back, everybody. We are with our guest host today, Warren Buffett, life in Omaha at the Nebraska Furniture Mart.

贝基:这个周末对伯克希尔·哈撒韦来说有很多正事,沃伦,很多严肃的讨论,但也有轻松的时刻。昨天你花了一天时间去博尔斯海姆珠宝亲自卖珠宝。

This weekend for Berkshire Hathaway is a lot of business, Warren, a lot of serious talk that comes out, but there's also some fun time. Yesterday you spent the day going to Borsheims and selling jewelry yourself.

巴菲特只有几个小时。

BUFFETTA couple hours.

贝基而你做的第一件事——

BECKYAnd the first thing you did —

巴菲特疯狂的沃伦,我的价格谁也赶不上。

BUFFETTCrazy Warren, my prices can't be touched.

贝基所以那会儿你是在推销自己。你还花了不少时间打打桥牌、打打乒乓球。我想给你看看这个镜头,你当时在跟邢(思琳)对打。

BECKYSo you were selling yourself. You also spent some time playing a little Bridge and playing some table tennis, ping-pong. I want to show you this shot. You were going up against Ariel (Hsing.)

巴菲特是的,她是全美女子冠军,还参加了奥运会,赢了几场比赛。

BUFFETTYes, she is the women's national champ and played in the Olympics and won a couple matches.

贝基你那一球打得太漂亮了。你说算了,我坐下来。你在邢思琳身上得了一分就出局了,对吧?

BECKYYou got the great shot off. You said forget it. I'm sitting down. You get a shot on Ariel and you're out, right?

巴菲特一年就一次好球。

BUFFETTOne great shot a year.

贝基不过,我们刚才聊的不少话题都相当严肃。其中一件事提到了你们的另一家持仓——美国银行。

BECKYThere has been a lot of stuff that we talked about that has been very serious business, though. One of the things that come up was another one of your holdings, Bank of America.

美国银行最近不得不撤回他们提高股息和回购更多股票的计划,因为监管资本出了乱子。他们差了一大截。是 40 亿美元吗?

Bank of America very recently had to pull back their plan to increase the dividend and buy back more shares because there was a mess up in the regulatory capital. They were off by a big number. Was it 4 billion?

巴菲特差不多吧。

BUFFETTSomething like that.

贝基大约 40 亿美元。我只是好奇,作为一位股东,也是公司的大股东,这件事是否让你感到担忧?

BECKYAbout $4 billion. I just wonder, as a shareholder, as someone who has a big stake in the company, did that concern you?

巴菲特不。答案是不。这没有影响美国银行的净资产、利润,或任何类似的东西。而且,实际上,他们对我们优先股所做的调整,给监管资本增加了 50 亿美元。

BUFFETTNo. The answer is no. It did not affect the Gap net worth, the GAP earnings or anything of that sort. And, actually, the change they're making with our preferred adds 5 billion to regulatory capital.

贝基真的?

BECKYReally?

巴菲特是的。他们把我们持有的优先股从累积优先股改成了非累积优先股,这一变动使该资本类别增加了 50 亿美元。我并不是说这就是犯下 40 亿美元错误的正当理由。

BUFFETTYes. They are changing our preferred from a cumulative preferred to noncumulative preferred, and that changes that category of capital by 5 billion. I‟m not saying that's a good reason for making the 4 billion error.

我犯过错误。我们也犯过错误。这不涉及任何金钱损失或其他什么。这是他们接管美林时获得的结构化债务。

I've made mistakes. We've made mistakes. It doesn't involve any loss of money or anything. It's structured debt that they acquired when they took over Merrill Lynch.

再说说所罗门的事——所罗门是我在 1991 年接管的那家合并公司。我接手后,资产负债表里有个凑数的项目,某个数字每天到处浮动。那是因为从 1981 年起,整整十年前,他们就一直没能把账目核对清楚。安达信是我们的审计师,他们作为新上任的 CEO 跟我解释:你会看到这 1.8 亿美元左右的东西在不同金额之间跳来跳去。不过别担心,总有一天我们会搞清楚的。

Again, after I took over Solomon — Solomon was a merger I took over in 1991. When I took over, there was a plug item in the balance sheet. Some item that floated around every day. And that was because they had not been able to find — they had not been able to reconcile the books since 1981, ten years earlier. And Arthur Anderson were our auditors. They came in and explained to me as the new CEO, you‟ll see this 180 million or whatever it is, move around different amounts. But don't worry, someday we'll figure it out.

贝基这让你担心吗?

BECKYDid that concern you?

巴菲特当然,这让我很担心。其中一家公司用的是现金收付制,另一家用的是交易日制,结果它们一直没协调好。很多很多年前,我们在储蓄贷款业务上也遇到过这种情况,怎么都理不清。于是我们干脆把银行账户清空,从头再来。

BUFFETTSure, it concerned me. One of the companies had been on a cash basis and one on a trade-day basis and somehow they never got it worked out. We had a situation in our savings and loan many, many years ago where we couldn't work it out. So we just ran out the bank account and started all over again.

贝基所以你并不担心。你认为布莱恩·莫伊尼汉干得很出色?

BECKYSo you're not concerned. You think Brian Moynihan is doing a terrific job?

巴菲特我认为布莱恩·莫伊尼汉干得很出色。他面临一大堆问题要处理,而且这些都不是他造成的。他只是有条不紊地逐个解决。问题之一就是,每当他以为已经解决了某个问题,又会冒出几个新的。

BUFFETTI think Brian Moynihan is doing a terrific job. He's got a lot of problems to deal with, not of his making. He's just methodically worked his way through. And one of the problems is when he thinks he's worked his way through, there's a few more.

他做了该做的事。大幅精简了银行架构,压缩了资产负债表,让业务回归根本。美国银行拥有极好的存款特许权,长期来看会做得不错。我最初买入这只股票时,跟布莱恩聊过,我说你前面的路还很长,所有这些你都能搞定。

He's done the right things. He's simplified the bank dramatically, brought down the balance sheet. He's brought it back to the fundamentals. Bank of America has a wonderful deposit franchise, and it will do well over time. When I first bought the stock, when I was talking to Brian, I said you have a long period ahead of you. You'll work through all of this.

贝基我们今早的嘉宾主持人是沃伦·巴菲特。我们还有很多话题要和他聊。

BECKYOur guest host this morning is Warren Buffett. We have a lot more to talk about with him.

接下来,我们还在等待辉瑞的季度业绩。这些数字一公布,我们会立即为您解读。

Coming up we are also waiting on quarterly results from Pfizer. We'll break out those numbers as soon as they're released.

另外,我们还有两位重磅人物要加入,就在奥马哈的内布拉斯加家具城现场。伯克希尔·哈撒韦的查理·芒格和微软的比尔·盖茨。当然,他们都是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事会成员。他们将从美国东部时间上午 8 点开始加入我们。

Plus, we have two more headliners to our set right here at the Nebraska Furniture Mart in Omaha. Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger and Microsoft's Bill Gates. Both of them, of course, board members at Berkshire Hathaway. They will be joining us starting at 8 a.m Eastern time.

“Squawk Box” 节目马上回来,稍作休息。

“Squawk Box” returns right after this quick break.

(广告休息。)

(Commercial break.)

乔·科南我们把画面切回奥马哈的贝基,她的特邀嘉宾是沃伦·巴菲特。我知道安德鲁刚才提到,那边也谈到了“I”字头的词——倒挂(inversion),而且我相信,在更广的层面上,大家也讨论了咱们应该怎么处理企业税和整个税法的问题。行了,贝基,交给你了。

JOELet's get back to Becky in Omaha with special guest, Warren Buffett. I know Andrew mentioned that the "I" word, inversion, was discussed a little bit out there as well, and I'm sure in the broader context of what we should do here with corporate taxes and the whole tax code. Anyway, Becky, back to you.

贝基乔,我们就从这个话题切入吧。辉瑞是个很好的引子。沃伦,我知道我们之前聊过不少并购活动。这次的情况有点不一样。

BECKYJoe, let's jump right into that. Pfizer is a good jumping off point for all of this. Warren, I know we've talked a lot about some the merger and acquisition activity. It's a little different this time around.

有些收购方的股票甚至在消息传出后上涨了。但最引起我们注意的是像辉瑞这样的情况——辉瑞收购阿斯利康时表示,如果这笔交易完成,它会将税务注册地迁到英国,因为那里的税率更低。这让你对商业怎么看?这又让你对美国的税法、企业所得税法怎么看?

Some of the acquiring stocks have actually risen on some the news. But what's really caught our attention are situations like Pfizer, where Pfizer buying AstraZeneca, it has said that it would move its tax domicile if this deal goes through to the UK because they would be paying a lower tax rate there. What does that tell you about business, what does it tell you about the U.S. tax code, the corporate tax code?

巴菲特现在越来越多并购是冲着税收去的,收购方股价上涨的原因之一就在这里——你谈的不仅是买下一门生意,更是在为收购方降低税率。这种情况已经出现一阵子了。你们看到保险公司往百慕大跑,也看到瓦利安特搞了不少这类操作。我猜,瓦利安特一路推进的时候,辉瑞的人大概在想:这有点失控了,我们也得把税率降下来。

BUFFETTWe're getting more mergers that are tax driven, and that's one of the reasons maybe the acquired stock goes up because you're actually talking not only about buying a business, but you're talking about bringing down the tax rate for the acquirer. And that's been coming along to some degree. You saw insurance companies go to Bermuda and you've seen Valiant pull off a number of these, and my guess is that as Valiant is going along, the people at Pfizer are probably just thinking, this is getting out of hand. We've got to bring our tax rate down too.

所以这种做法会积累势头,我猜当公司规模、知名度达到这个程度,再加上这种加速的势头,我猜国会迟早会以某种方式介入。但他们的应对方式可能往任何一个方向发展。至于他们是只针对税法中允许这种做法的那一小部分——这可不是小事——还是被迫重新思考整个公司税制,我们拭目以待。但我确实认为这件事会引发关注。

So it will gather momentum, and my guess is that when you get to companies of this size, this prominence, and with this speed-up of momentum, my guess is that Congress one way or another addresses this. But that could go either direction in terms of how they address it. And whether they just try to work on this little aspect of the code that allows this, which is not insignificant, or whether that forces them to rethink sort of all corporate taxes, we'll find out. But I do think it's going to get attention.

贝基总统已经把这个提案列入了今年的预算。除了那些正在考虑这样做的公司可能比较关注之外,这个提案并没有受到太多关注。总统提议加大企业迁移注册地的难度。目前,如果你有 20% 的股东在美国境外,就可以这么做,但总统提议把这个比例提高到 50%。有些人看到这个就说,等一下,为什么不干脆从整体上调整税法,让人们更愿意留在这里,而不是搬到别的地方去呢?

BECKYThe president has already put it in his budget for this year. It's not been closely focused on, except for potentially by some of these companies that are considering doing these things. The president has proposed to make it tougher to move your tax domicile. Right now if you have 20 percent of your shareholders outside the United States, you're allowed to do that, but the president has proposed moving that up to 50 percent. Some people look at that and say, wait a second, why don't you just deal with the tax code overall and make it a little more attractive for people to be here rather than moving somewhere else?

巴菲特嗯,这就是要去打的仗,而且——

BUFFETTWell, that's the fight that's going to go on, and —

贝基那怎么做才是对的?

BECKYWhat's the right move?

巴菲特嗯,人人都谈税改。大家特别喜欢用“税改”这个词,可支持税改的人屈指可数。

BUFFETTWell, everybody talks about tax reform. People love to use the word tax reform, and very few people are for tax reform that

这等于增加他们自己的税。税法里那些帮助他人的条款,他们有一堆不喜欢的,还想去改掉。但我几乎从没听谁说过——把税制改革和增加自己税负的方案画等号。至于海外那摊子事,我觉得会在美国企业界引发一场激烈的争斗。

increases their own taxes. They have all kinds of other things that they don't like in the code for helping other people, and they want to get that corrected. But I have yet to hear from anybody pretty much that wants to — equates tax reform with some set of proposals that increases their own taxes. And this whole thing on the foreign situation I think will cause one hell of a fight in corporate America.

贝基但您说的这项政策,现在会推高类似辉瑞这类原本税率就较高的公司——它们实际税率 27%,反而会把它们推向不利。而那些税率远没那么高的公司,倒是留了下来。这难道不说明应当简化税法,像辛普森-鲍尔斯建议的那样,少给别人发那么多优惠和好处,让所有人都缴纳接近 28% 的税率吗?

BECKYBut you're talking about a policy that right now pushes companies like Pfizer that pay a relatively high tax rate, 27 percent, and pushes them away. It keeps the people who maybe aren't paying rates nearly as high. Isn't that an argument for simplifying the tax code, not handing away as many incentives or advantages to other people, and getting everybody to pay, like Simpson-Bowles suggested, closer to 28 percent?

巴菲特对,你希望每个人都一样。我们当然乐见其成,但那是因为我们交的税率超过 28%,把我们降下来挺好。可那些只交 20% 的人——我能举出一大堆公司——要是这项调整把他们税率提到 28%,他们可就不乐意了。所以如果你搞一个收入中性的方案,会有很多公司受损,它们嚷嚷起来大概比那些从中受益的人声音还大。

BUFFETTYeah, you'd like to get everybody the same. We'd like to see that, but that's because we're paying more than 28 percent, bring us down. And somebody who's paying 20 percent — and I can name a lot of companies — they're not going to like it if that activity brings them up to 28 percent. So if you go for something that's revenue neutral, a lot of companies are going to get hurt, and they will probably squeal more than the people who are getting some benefit out of the changes.

我认为,尽管我说了上面那些话,目前事态可能已经相当活跃,以至于你会在公司税问题上看到一些新的解决方案——这已经不只是海外税率的问题了。但这事难度很大,因为只要某家公司的税率在某项新提案下一照算就要上调几个百分点,他们在华盛顿游说的队伍就能排到巴尔的摩去。

I think there may be enough action going on now that despite what I've said, you will get some new resolution of the situation on corporate taxes generally beyond the question of just foreign tax rates. But it will take a lot, because as soon as company X's taxes are going to go up a couple points pro forma under some new proposal, they will have lobbyists lined up in Washington that will stretch to Baltimore.

贝基安德鲁,你也有问题要问?

BECKYAndrew, you have a question, too?

安德鲁这个问题,我想顺着继续问沃伦。周末股东大会的座谈会上,我们问过您,伯克希尔会不会像辉瑞那样搞一笔交易,比如某种“税负倒置”,您说不会。我后来碰到几位投资者,他们想知道为什么不这么做。比方说,我记得你们去年大概交了 89 亿美元的税。如果你能把这个数字降到 70 亿或 60 亿美元,难道你给不出一个从股东角度看完全说得通的理由吗?

<<<END P 7>>>

ANDREWWell, it was a question that I wanted to follow up with Warren on, which is that we asked a question of you on the panel over the weekend at the meeting whether Berkshire would ever pursue a deal like what Pfizer is doing, an inversion of some sort, and you said no. And I ran into a couple investors who wanted to know why wouldn't you do it. If, for example, I think you pay about $8.9 billion in taxes last year. If you could take that number down to $7 billion or $6 billion, you couldn't come up with a rationale for why that would make sense from a shareholder perspective?

巴菲特嗯,首先,我们的股东里非美国人的比例远不到 20%,而且,你知道,这说不定得我搬过去才行。我不确定查理搬过去能不能搞定。

BUFFETTWell, for one, we do not come close to having 20 percent of our shareholders outside the United States, and you know, it might require me moving. I'm not sure that Charlie moving would get the job done.

我……我这话半是开玩笑。我们并不觉得联邦所得税的负担过重。但看到别人干着和我们一样的生意,税率却低得多,确实有点让人烦。不过,伯克希尔在 52% 和 48% 的税率下都经营过,按美国税率,我们照样赚了大钱。

So I ... I'm being half facetious with that. We do not feel that we are unduly burdened by federal income taxes. But it does get a little annoying to us when we see other people paying far lower tax rates while engaging in the same sort of business that we engage in. But Berkshire operated under 52 percent tax rates and 48 percent tax rates, and we make a lot of money under U.S. tax rates.

乔·科南沃伦,你提到 20% 这个数字时,我们之前也聊过很多——很多公司被税率诱导把业务迁到海外,而 20% 是它们现在实际支付的混合税率,因为它们已经根据自己看到的情况做出了反应,所以这是其中一点。

JOEWarren, when you talk about the 20 percent, we've talked about this a lot too, a lot of companies have been induced to move operations overseas by the tax rate, and the 20 percent represents a blended rate that they're now paying because they've already reacted to what they see, so that's one thing.

第二,我听说总统在企业税改问题上,连“收入中性”的方案都不考虑。他要求在不管哪种形式的企业税改中,都必须增加税收。而你刚才也提到了,要做到收入中性,有些公司的税会涨,有些公司可能会降,所以有人会支持,有人会反对。

Number two, I've been told that the president, in corporate tax reform, won't go for anything that is even revenue neutral. He wants to actually raise revenue in any type of reform that comes from corporate taxation. And you just mentioned that to keep it revenue neutral, taxes are going to go up on some companies, maybe they'll come down on other ones, so some people will like it, some people won't.

这就暗示当前税率水平是合理的,而这与另一种观点相悖——我认为它与这种观点矛盾——换句话说,我们从企业那里征收的总税额,如果要保持税收中性,那就意味着从宏观角度看,我们的企业并没有被过度征税。谁能说目前的情况呢——我的意思是,还有另一种说法认为,目前美国企业在全球竞争中处于劣势,就是因为税率太高了。所以实际上,如果不是税收中性,而是实际上降低了整个企业群体的税负,那也不一定是坏事,这会让我们的税率与全球水平更一致。这样一来,你就能拉拢更多人支持,因为大多数企业都能享受更低的税率。我说得不对吗?

That sort of implies that this level of revenue right now is appropriate, which sort of goes against — I think that it goes against — in other words, the total number that we take from our corporations, if we need to keep it revenue neutral, then that means that our corporations are not overtaxed as far as the big picture goes. Who's to say that right now — I mean, there is another side that would say that corporations right now are competitively disadvantaged globally because they're just too high. So in fact if it's not revenue neutral, if it actually lowers taxes for the entire group, that that's not necessarily a bad thing, that would bring us more in line globally. And then you could get people signed on because most corporations would have lower taxes. Am I wrong?

巴菲特如果你们想降低企业税,那就再告诉我一遍,你们打算提高谁的税,才能保持整体税负不变。

BUFFETTIf you want to take corporate taxes down, just tell me again whose taxes you want to take up in terms of keeping the overall

乔·科南我不是说要留着它。我的意思是,我们没必要保持中性,这个数字应该更低,因为现在这个税率太高了,我们在全球竞争中已经处于劣势。

JOEI don't want to keep it. I'm saying that we don't need to keep it neutral, that it should be a lower amount, because we're disadvantaged now globally because it's too high.

巴菲特乔,我们的业务规模接近 2000 亿美元,大部分业务按正常税率缴税。我们在风电和太阳能领域有部分交易享有税收优惠。在伯克希尔·哈撒韦,我们并不处于相对于世界其他地区的竞争劣势——

BUFFETTJoe, we do almost $200 billion worth of business, and we pay normal rates on most. We have certain deals that are tax advantaged in terms of wind power and solar power. We are not at a competitive disadvantage with the rest of the world at Berkshire Hathaway —

乔·科南有些公司是这样。确实有些公司如此,所以它们才会采取这些做法,对吧——

JOESome companies are. Some are, and that's why they're doing some of these things, right —

巴菲特它们这么做是为了缴更少的税。辉瑞是一家利润非常高的公司。你看看辉瑞的有形净资产收益率,相当惊人。它们想通过不交税来赚更多钱。但即便按美国公司税率缴税,它们依然拥有出色的生意,你只需要看看——

BUFFETTThey're doing it to pay even lower taxes. Pfizer is a very profitable company. You look at the return on net tangible assets at Pfizer. It's terrific. They'd like to make even more money by not paying taxes. But they have a wonderful business paying U.S. corporate tax rates, and all you have to do is look at —

乔·科南我不知道什么样的利润算合理,什么样的不算。我也不知道它们赚得太多还是太少。但如果我们把数万亿美元留在海外,它们受到诱惑这么做,还把总部迁出去,而其他税率更低的公司能进来收购我们的资产,因为它们出价能比国内公司更高——这些事情没一件看起来像是我们目前在全球竞争中的最优方式。

JOEI don't know what profit's fair and what isn't. I don't know whether they make too much or they make too little. But if we're leaving trillions of dollars overseas and they're induced to do this and they're moving headquarters, and other companies that have lower tax rates can come in here and buy our assets because they can offer more money than domestic companies can, none of these things seem like it's the optimal way for us to be competing globally at this point.

巴菲特总体而言,过去 20 年里,美国公司收购的外国公司数量超过了外国公司收购美国公司的数量。所以,实际上我们一直在那里进行净投资。

BUFFETTOn balance, American companies have bought more foreign companies in the last 20 years than vice versa. So we have actually been net investing over there.

但除此之外,如果你看企业税占 GDP 的比重,自二战以来,这一比重已从 4% 降到了约 2%。实际上,现在不到 2%。而与此同时,企业利润却在屡创新高。所以,如果你看美国的预算,个人缴纳的税变多了,企业缴纳的税则从占 GDP 的 4% 降到了 2%。按百分比计算,没有哪个群体像企业这样降幅这么大。美国的企业日子过得很不错。

<<<END P 4>>>

But beyond that, if you look at corporate taxes as a percentage of GDP, since World War II they've come down from 4 percent to about 2 percent. In fact, under 2 percent. That's while corporate profits have been hitting record levels. So if you look at the budget of the United States, individuals have paid more taxes, corporations have come down from 4 percent of GDP to 2 percent of GDP. No other group has come down as much percentage-wise as corporations. Corporations are doing fine in the United States.

乔·科南我们当时就该承认这一点,不用为它发愁,但这确实会留下数万亿美元——我们可以把这些钱拿回来,用于基础设施建设。

JOEWe should acknowledge that then and not worry about it, but it does leave trillions of dollars that would be — we could bring it back and use it for infrastructure.

巴菲特它们现在就能把钱带回来,只是不想交税而已。要是你允许它们低价汇回,它们就会想着还能再低价回来,于是在那边变本加厉地多赚。

BUFFETTThey could bring it back now. They just don't want to pay the tax. And if you let them bring it back cheap, they're going to try and make even more over there with the idea they can bring it back cheap.

乔·科南我知道。所以你得把整体税率调一调。继续吧。

JOEI know. That's why you need to change the overall rate. Go ahead.

巴菲特现金最多的行业是科技行业。据我所知,那些赚大钱的科技巨头,融资方面根本没有任何问题。它们更愿意在这里借钱——就像亚马逊,就像苹果在做的那样。但那是因为它们拥有大量现金。它们会在这里借钱,而且借钱成本极低。但它们并不需要现金来发展业务。它们需要现金来回购股票,因为股东在推动它们这么做。但它们并没有用这些钱在美国建造工厂和设备,而是在用来回购股票。

BUFFETTThe number one industry with cash over there is the tech industry. There isn't a tech company I know of the major companies making lots of money that has got the least bit of a problem in financing their businesses. What they would rather do is borrow the money here and as Amazon — as Apple's doing. But that's because they've got loads of cash. They'll borrow it here, they'll borrow it very cheap. But they do not have a need for cash for their business. They have a need for cash to repurchase shares because the shareholders are pushing them for it. But they are not using that money to build plants and equipment in the United States. They are using it to repurchase shares.

贝基沃伦,你自己说过,遵从税法没问题,没必要完全规避税收,但如果换个做法能避税,也可以这么做。事实上,你最近做了一些交易,包括出售《华盛顿邮报》的股份,就享受了税收优惠。

BECKYWarren, you yourself said that it's okay to follow the tax rules and not get out of taxes entirely, but if you can avoid taxes by doing something differently. In fact, you've done some deals recently, including the sale of the Washington Post shares that were tax advantaged.

巴菲特当然。我们从未为税收优惠进行过游说。但在税法方面,我们不会像在餐馆结账时那样,算好年度纳税额后再加 15% 的小费。我们该交多少就交多少。通过缴纳应缴的税款,我们获得了可观的资本回报。我们从未因为身在美国而非某个外国就放弃过一次资本投资。我们也收购过外国企业。

BUFFETTSure. We've never lobbied for a tax advantage. But in terms of the tax code, we do not figure up our tax return for the year and then add a tip of 15 percent like on a restaurant check. We pay what we owe. And by paying what we owe, we've earned substantial returns on capital. We've never foregone a capital investment because we were here in the United States instead of some foreign country. And we've bought foreign businesses.

乔·科南今天《华尔街日报》说,你们建风电场的唯一原因,你知道它们在经济上不可行,就是为了税收减免。

JOEThe (Wall Street) Journal today says the only reason that you're building wind farms at all, you know they're not economically feasible, is for the tax breaks.

安德鲁·索金他上周末是这么说的。

ANDREWHe said that over the weekend.

巴菲特这个观点我们公开说过很多年了。

BUFFETTWe've said that publicly for years.

乔·科南这听起来像是钻税法里这条线那条线的空子,纯粹冲着税收优惠去投资,搞一整片风电园区。这似乎不太符合法律的立法精神。

JOEThat sounds like taking advantage of a little line here, line there in the tax code to actually invest and to have a whole wind farm unit just based on the tax advantages. That doesn't seem like in keeping in the spirit of the law.

巴菲特不,这完全符合法律的精神。美国国会决定要鼓励风电场,要鼓励太阳能,要鼓励低收入住房。所有这些法律的支持者——实际上,是第 41 任总统乔治·布什,他在椭圆形办公室里向我表示祝贺,因为我们正在投资低收入住房税收抵免项目。

BUFFETTNo, it is in keeping with the spirit of the law. The U.S. Congress decided that they wanted to encourage wind farms, they wanted to encourage solar, they wanted to encourage low-income housing. And all of those proponents of the law, actually it was President George Bush, 41, that had me in the Oval Office to congratulate me because we were investing in low-income housing tax credits.

乔·科南那为什么你要把这种做法和美国一些公司的倒置并购区别对待呢?

JOEWhy do you make a distinction between that and what some of the U.S. companies are doing when it comes to an inversion?

巴菲特嗯,我觉得它们要是想的话,是可以通过税收倒置做到的。我认为那条规定很可能会——我不是说辉瑞在遵守倒置规则时干了任何违法的事。我个人会修改税法的那部分。其他人可能会修改关于风电税收抵免的那部分,但我不是要攻击辉瑞遵守美国税法。而且那条规定甚至不是——我敢肯定它不是针对辉瑞加进去的。我只是说,税法里有那部分规定很可能是个错误。人们也可以争论风电税收抵免是不是个错误。但我要告诉你们,美国企业,无论是伯克希尔·哈撒韦、辉瑞还是苹果,在现行税法下都表现得非常出色,丝毫谈不上资本短缺,也完全不存在竞争困难。当然,你可以拿其他理由来主张修改税法,但在我看来,你其实没法拿刚才说的那些做理由。

BUFFETTWell, I think they can do it with an inversion if they want. I think that is one that's likely to get — I'm not saying they're doing anything illegal at all in following the rules on inversion. I would personally change that part of the law. And other people might change the part of the law about wind tax credits, but I'm not attacking Pfizer for following the U.S. tax law. And that provision wasn't even put — I'm sure it wasn't put in there because of Pfizer. I'm just saying that it's probably a mistake to have that part of it. And people can argue whether it's a mistake to have the wind tax credits. But American business, I will tell you, whether it's Berkshire Hathaway or Pfizer or Apple, are doing wonderfully under this tax code and are not short of capital in any way, shape or form, or are having any trouble competing. Now, you can make other arguments for changing the tax code, but you can't really make those arguments, in my view.

贝基好的。我们回头接着聊。和沃伦·巴菲特还有很多话题要谈。各位,我把信号交回给你们。另外要说一下,美国东部时间早上 8 点,伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格和微软创始人比尔·盖茨都会来到演播室和沃伦·巴菲特一起参加我们的直播。安德鲁,先把画面交还给你。

BECKYGreat. We will continue this conversation. We do have a lot more with Warren Buffett. Guys, I will send it back to you. Also coming up at 8 a.m. Eastern time, we should point out, Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger and Microsoft Founder Bill Gates will both be joining us live right here on the set with Warren Buffett. Andrew, right now, though, I'll send it back to you.

(广告时间。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基谢谢。各位,再说一下,我们今天上午是在和伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特一起度过。沃伦,昨晚我在网上翻看时,看到《经济学人》的一篇文章,他们建议也许你应该拆分伯克希尔·哈撒韦,认为对你的继任者来说,如果公司更小或拆成几块,管理起来会更容易。你对这个想法怎么看?

BECKYThank you. Guys, again, we are spending the morning with Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett. Warren, one of the things that I saw last night, kind digging online, was an article in The Economist, where they suggested that maybe you should break up Berkshire Hathaway, that for your successor, it would be easier to run the company if it were smaller or broken into pieces. What do you think about that idea?

巴菲特整个公司保持统一确实有实实在在的好处。我是说,一个很大的优势在于,我们能从那些无法有效利用资本的业务中把资金调出来。也许冻结在那里的资本还能用得上,但增量资本的价值微乎其微,我们可以把这些资金转移到其他领域——那些业务自身产生的资金满足不了它们的资本需求。资本主义的本质就是资本配置。整个核心思想就是把资源放到正确的位置。我们有能力审视 70 多家公司,涵盖各行各业,然后把资本配置到最合理的地方。而大多数公司,如果它们是干某个特定行业的,就会觉得只能盯着本行业的机会,如果找不到特别好的,就可能退而求其次做点不那么好的。如果它们需要资本,还得去资本市场融资并承担相应成本。我们则有一种无缝衔接、极其高效的方式,在各业务之间重新调配资本——总体来看,我们这些业务今年资本支出合计大约在 120 亿美元左右。

BUFFETTWell, there are real advantages to having the company together. I mean, one big advantage is the ability to allocate capital from businesses where it can't be used effectively. Maybe frozen capital can be used effectively, but incremental capital has very little value and we can move that over to other areas, which have capital needs beyond the amount they're generating themselves. So capitalism is about capital allocation. The whole idea is putting resources in the right places. And we've got the ability to look at 70plus companies, various industries and everything else, and allocate capital wherever it makes the most sense. And most companies, if they're in the XYZ business, they feel that they look at the opportunities in XYZ and if they can't find any good ones, they may do some ones that aren't quite so good. And if they need capital, if they have to go to capital markets and incur the expense of that. So we have a seamless, very efficient way of rearranging capital among businesses, which in aggregate will spend like 12 billion on capital this year.

贝基您和您的搭档查理·芒格都是极为出色的资本配置者。这已经在几十年间反复得到了证明。不过,这确实引出一个问题:你们在培养潜在接班人上做了哪些工作,以确保他们在资本配置上同样出色?

BECKYYou and Charlie Munger, your partner, are incredible capital allocators. You have proven that over decades and decades of time. It does raise the question, though, what are you doing to prepare your potential successors to make sure that they are equally good at allocating capital?

巴菲特伯克希尔的董事会,只要觉得某个人不擅长资本配置,就绝不会把他放到 CEO 的位置上。现有的人选,我一点都不担心。有很多人在其他方面非常出色,也许能满足很多条件,但通不过资本配置这一关,那他们就不该坐上这个位置。

BUFFETTThe board will not put a person into the job as CEO of Berkshire that they don't think is terrific at allocating capital. And the candidates we have, I've got no worries about. There are plenty of people that are very good at something else and might meet a lot of the tests, but would not meet the capital allocation test and they should not be in the job.

贝基不过,有没有这样一种观点,任何潜在的继任者都应该在不止一个业务单元待过,单纯就是为了确保你不会一直觉得只有某个单元才是最好的地方,从而对公司业务能有更全面的把握?

BECKYIs there an argument, though, that any potential successor spend time at more than just one unit, simply from the perspective that you don't want to look at that unit as the best place always just to make sure you get a broader view of the business.

巴菲特你希望坐上最高位置的人不偏袒任何一方,没有谁在他心里上了黑名单,也不会觉得把资本投向 A 领域远比投向 B 领域更顺手。他确实能从伯克希尔全体股东的角度出发,问自己:这笔钱用在哪里最好?而那笔钱,也可能用于回购股票。

BUFFETTYou want somebody in the top position that doesn't have favorites, doesn't have anybody on the blacklist, that doesn't feel way more comfortable in putting capital in area A than area B. But really, looking at it from the standpoint of the Berkshire shareholders and saying, where can this money be used best? And that money may be used in repurchasing shares.

贝基我正要提这一点。另一个想法是,你希望有人把自己旗下业务的资本配置好,而当这些业务不需要投入资金时,他可以出去买股票。这样一来,做决策的人就不止一个了。(投资组合经理)托德(康姆斯)和泰德(韦施勒)一直在负责挑选股票。这个机制到底怎么运行?算是三驾马车吗?

BECKYI was just going to bring that up. The other idea is that you want somebody who is allocating capital to businesses you own, but when there's not money that's put there, you would go out and buy other stock. So now you're going to have more than one person who's making that decision. (Portfolio managers) Todd (Combs) and Ted (Weschler) have been in the position of looking at stocks. How does that work? Is it a triumvirate?

巴菲特这里有一个很大的加分项。他们两个不担任最高决策者,但我们不仅会在股票上,还会在债券和各种形式的证券上投入大量资金。而我们恰好有两个极其出色的人来执行这项职能。他们不会担任首席执行官,但会在这个领域协助首席执行官。就像经营各项业务的人会在各自领域提供帮助一样。但首席执行官必须完全像所有者一样思考。所有者要做的,就是琢磨把资本配置到哪里能发挥最大优势,而我们将会产生大量资本。所以这是一项极其重要的职能。

BUFFETTHere's a big plus. They're not the bosses, but we will have a lot of money in not only stocks, but bonds, various forms of securities. And we've got two terrific people to carry out that function. They will not be the Chief Executive Officer, but they will be there to help the Chief Executive Officer in that arena. Just like people that run given business are there to help in their areas. But the chief executive should think exactly like an owner. And an owner is trying to figure out where to put the capital to best advantage and we will generate a lot of capital. So it's a very important function.

贝基你一直提到的是托德·康姆斯和泰德·韦施勒这两位。这个周末有好几位股东提问,想知道什么时候能多听听托德和泰德的想法。你怎么看?他们将来有没有可能在股东大会上也回答提问?

BECKYTodd Combs and Ted Weschler are the two individuals you've been talking about. There were several questions raised by shareholders this weekend, wondering when they were going to get to hear a little bit more from Todd and Ted. What do you think? Would they be in a position of maybe taking questions at an annual meeting down the road, too?

巴菲特这倒也不是没可能。他们不爱追逐名声,也绝非那种人,他们就是喜欢管钱。至于他们管得怎么样,业绩记录股东们随时可以看到。但他们对谈论自己的投资想法,可以说毫无兴趣。凭什么要谈呢?那些想法是他们花心血琢磨出来的。他们不打算白白送人。

BUFFETTThat's not impossible. They're not publicity hounds or anything of the sort, and they like managing money. And the record of how they do on that will be available for the shareholders to see. But they are not interested at all, for example, in talking about their investment ideas. Why should they be? They worked hard to develop them. They're not about to pass them out.

贝基我们稍等片刻,马上接着聊。不过乔,查理·芒格到了,他来早了,所以广告一回来我们就请他到台上来。

BECKYWe're going to continue this conversation in just a moment. But Joe, Charlie Munger is here, he showed up early, so we're going to put him on the set when we come right back.

太好了。那一定很有意思。沃伦说过,查理在中年阶段状态极好,意气风发。

JOEExcellent. That's going to be fun. And Warren has said that Charlie is doing very well in middle age, flourishing.

安德鲁跟你说,他太了不起了。这个周末,我是说,真让人备受激励。他比这桌上任何人都要敏锐。

ANDREWCan I tell you, he's amazing. This weekend, I mean, it's inspirational. He's sharper than anybody at this table.

乔·科南好吧,这个标准可真够低的,我们说过很多次了。还有更多沃伦·巴菲特的内容在后面。下一小时我们有一位特别嘉宾要来。微软创始人比尔·盖茨将加入我们。他是 CNBC 过去 25 年商界 25 位顶尖领袖之一。我们会聊科技、微软的遗产,当然还有他改变世界的计划。“财经论谈”马上回来。

JOEWell, that's a low bar, as we've said many times. More Warren Buffett still ahead. And we have a special guest coming up in the next hour. Microsoft Founder Bill Gates is going to join us. He's a member of CNBC's top 25 leaders over the past 25 years in business. We're going to talk tech, the legacy of Microsoft, and of course, his plans to change the world. “Squawk Box” is coming right back.

(广告插播。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基·奎克今天我们花了一个上午与伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在一起,现在又请来另一位特别嘉宾——伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长查理·芒格。查理,今天上午能见到您太高兴了。非常感谢您来参加我们的节目。

BECKYWe are spending the morning with Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett, and now we're adding another special guest, Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger. Charlie, it is a pleasure to see you this morning. Thank you so much for joining us.

查理·芒格,伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长:我很高兴来到这里。

CHARLIE MUNGER, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY VICE CHAIRMAN: I'm delighted to be here.

贝基大家每年都来,是因为想听你们俩同台。这周末我和好多股东聊过这事。你们俩一起坐在台上回答股东提问,这习惯保持多久了?

BECKYPeople come every year because they want to hear the two of you on stage together. I talked to so many shareholders this weekend about it. You guys have been doing this together for how long, being on stage, taking questions from the shareholders?

查理·芒格大部分差不多五十年,沃伦,是不是?

MUNGERMostly 50 years, more or less, isn't it, Warren?

巴菲特是啊,关于那个问题。

BUFFETTYeah, about that.

贝基所以我想问的是,除了我们又都老了一岁之外,今年有什么不同,或者你们学到了什么?因为我知道二位说过,你们几乎每天都能学到点东西。这周末你们有学到什么吗?

BECKYSo I guess my question is other than being a year older for all of us, what's different or what did you learn this year, because I know the two of you say that you learn something just about every day? Did you learn anything this weekend?

芒格我觉得你总能学到点东西,但很难具体说清楚。我很少会有那种狂喜的时刻,像阿基米德那样。

MUNGERI think you always learn something, but it's hard to put a finger on it. I very seldom have an ecstatic moment, like Archimedes.

巴菲特我总能学到东西。有一件事让我特别开心——就是在股东大会上,站到台上听查理说些什么。

BUFFETTI always learn something. One of the things that I have fun with, I have a lot of fun with, is the annual meeting is just getting up there and hearing what Charlie's got to say.

贝基我本来想问你这个问题。你们会提前讨论这个吗?

BECKYI was going to ask you this. Do you ever talk about it in advance?

巴菲特永远,永远不会。

BUFFETTNever, ever.

芒格准备就是作弊。

MUNGERPreparation would be cheating.

贝基你们俩的喜剧节奏堪称完美。这么多年下来,是不是越来越默契了?还是头一天就配合得这么溜?

BECKYYou two have perfect comedic timing. Has it gotten better over the years? Did you hit that off the first day?

芒格我们天生就是爱耍嘴皮子的家伙。

MUNGERWe are natural wise asses.

巴菲特正是这一点让我们相互吸引。

BUFFETTThat's what attracted us to each other.

贝基我以前听过这个故事,但我知道很多观众没听过。沃伦,你们俩见面的时候,你 29 岁,查理,你 35 岁?

BECKYI've heard the story before, but I know a lot of our viewers haven't. You two met, Warren, when you were 29, and Charlie, you were 35?

巴菲特对,没错。

BUFFETTCorrect, yes.

贝基能跟我们聊聊那次见面吗?

BECKYCan you tell us a little bit about that meeting?

巴菲特是在本地的一次晚餐上,我们俩的太太也在。大概五分钟之后,查理就笑倒在地上,被自己的笑话逗得前仰后合。我自己也有这毛病。这世上像我们这样的人不多,所以我最好还是跟他搭伙一起干。

BUFFETTIt was at a local dinner, our wives were there, and after about five minutes Charlie was rolling on the floor laughing at his own jokes. I've been known to do that myself. There's not many guys like us in the world, so I better hook up with him.

贝基你们俩有什么共同之处?你觉得有哪些相似的地方?查理?

BECKYWhat is it that you two share in common. What similarities do you think you have? Charlie?

芒格嗯,奥马哈的成长背景,而且我觉得我们俩都求知欲极强。我们俩都挺喜欢在游戏里一较高下。还有,我觉得我们都热爱观念本身。我喜欢问沃伦,他想以什么身份被人记住,他说:老师。美国还有哪个 CEO 会说自己想被记住为老师?我喜欢这一点。

MUNGERWell, the Omaha background, and I think we're both very intellectually curious. We both kind of like competing in games. And I think we both love ideas. And I like to ask Warren what he wants to be remembered as, and he says a teacher. Who else in America who is a CEO says he wants to be remembered as a teacher? I like it.

贝基查理,你想以什么身份被人们记住呢?

BECKYCharlie, what do you want to be remembered as?

芒格嗯,我倒不介意被记住是个老师,但不会的。(笑声)

MUNGERWell, I wouldn't mind being remembered as a teacher, but I won't be. (Laughter)

巴菲特我觉得他会。

BUFFETTI think he will be.

芒格我可能会被记住是个嘴欠的家伙。

MUNGERI may be remembered as a wise ass.

贝基我一直好奇的一个问题是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长和副董事长到底是怎么共事的?你们俩多久通一次话?毕竟,查理,你在加州。

BECKYOne of the things I've always wondered is how Berkshire Hathaway really works with the Chairman and the vice chairman. How often do you two talk? Because, Charlie, you're in California.

芒格比过去少多了,因为我们都知道对方在想什么。我们不会浪费大把时间去确认已经知道的东西。

MUNGERWay less than we used to because we know what the other thinks. We're not wasting a lot of time checking what we already know.

巴菲特我们就像一对老夫老妻。彼此之间就咕哝两声,但都知道那咕哝是什么意思。不过早年那会儿——那时候长途电话还挺贵的,我们也没什么钱——我们经常一聊就是好几个小时,一聊就很多天。现在倒好,可能两周才通一次电话,差不多就这样。

BUFFETTWe're like an old married couple. We just sort of grunt at each other, but we know what the grunts mean. But originally, and this is when phone conversation was fairly expensive and we were not rich, we would talk for hours a lot of days. But now we may talk once every two weeks or something like that.

贝基不过,沃伦,你确实说过,在下结论之前,你和查理通过电话讨论过可口可乐那件事。

BECKYYou did say, though, Warren, that you spoke with Charlie about the Coca-Cola decision before you came to any conclusions.

巴菲特没错。

BUFFETTRight.

贝基你们俩当时聊的时候,各自是怎么想的?

BECKYWhat did you two think about that as you were talking?

查理·芒格大概只用了十秒钟。

MUNGERIt took about ten seconds.

贝基当真?

BECKYReally?

查理·芒格我没觉得这个决定有多难做。

MUNGERI do not find that a difficult decision.

贝基投弃权票,还是——

BECKYThe abstention or the —

查理·芒格我认为他处理得恰到好处。他有些怨言,但没太过火。我觉得分寸拿捏得刚好,对可口可乐管理层的称赞也恰如其分。我认为他做得非常完美。

MUNGERI thought he did it just right. He complained a little, but not too vociferously. I think that was just the right tone, and with compliments which were deserved to the management of Coca-Cola. I thought he handled it perfectly.

贝基我想问两位关于你们刚完成的那笔收购。伯克希尔上周宣布了一笔 30 亿美元的收购,

BECKYLet me ask you two about the acquisition that you just did. There was a $3 billion acquisition that you announced for Berkshire

由伯克希尔能源完成。所有找上门的机会,你们两位都会讨论吗?

Energy last week. Do you guys talk about everything that comes through?

查理·芒格那笔交易我连谈都没谈过。

MUNGERThat wasn't even talked about by me.

贝基怎么说?

BECKYWhat do you mean?

查理·芒格是沃伦和(伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司首席执行官)格雷格·阿贝尔做的。我猜沃伦讨论这件事没花超过一两分钟。

MUNGERWarren and (Berkshire Hathaway Energy CEO) Greg Abel did that one. My guess is Warren didn't talk about it for more than a minute or two.

巴菲特没错。我掌握了相关事实,我喜欢这笔交易,也知道查理肯定会喜欢。那何必浪费一个电话呢?

BUFFETTThat's true. I got the facts on it and I liked the deal and I knew Charlie would like it. So why waste a phone call?

贝基毕竟是一笔 30 亿美元的收购。达到什么样的规模或程度,你才会觉得,哎呀,这事我真得和查理好好谈谈了?

BECKYSo that's a $3 billion acquisition. What kind of rates, as the level that you think, oh, I really need to talk this through with Charlie?

巴菲特嗯,通常我之所以找他谈,是因为我内心深处知道自己可能在做蠢事,而他会直接点破。

BUFFETTWell, usually if I talk it through it's because down deep I know I might be doing something dumb, and he'll tell me.

贝基沃伦,你周末说过,你可能比查理更容易付诸行动。查理,你对此有回应。

BECKYWarren, you said over the weekend that you're probably more inclined towards actions than Charlie is. Charlie, you had a response to that.

查理·芒格这得看具体是什么行动。当事情一目了然时,我们俩都相当果断。

MUNGERWell it depends on the action. We're both very action pro when it's obvious.

巴菲特也得看是什么样的安全边际!

BUFFETTDepends on what kind of margin!

贝基但你周末说过,他以前用某个称呼叫过你。

BECKYBut you said over the weekend that he's called you something before.

芒格“可恶的‘不’先生”。他挺喜欢这个称呼。算是开个玩笑。

MUNGERThe Abominable "No" Man. He likes that. Kinda kidding.

巴菲特我们是在一个周四晚上聊收购伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司(Burlington Northern Santa Fe)的事,查理当时就同意了。你知道,他看事实的速度极快,思考也极快,而且从来不会为了说而说、为了发表演讲之类的事情浪费时间。我想说,我们共有的特质是,在很大程度上,我们都相当理性。我们不会花大把时间去琢磨那些纯粹扯淡的事。

BUFFETTWhen we talked on a Thursday night about doing Burlington, Northern Santa Fe, and Charlie was on board, and you know, immediately he thinks, he sees the facts so fast and thinks so fast, and he doesn't waste any time making arguments just for the hell of it, you know, that are speeches or anything like that. I would say that the quality that we share is that to a great extent, we're rational. And we don't waste a lot of time exploring things that are just nonsense.

贝基有没有什么事,你本来以为是绝妙的主意,直到跟查理谈过之后才发现不是?

BECKYWhat is something that you thought was going to be a great idea until you talked to Charlie?

巴菲特嗯,要是往回倒得足够远,有一次我打电话给他,聊的是匹兹堡与西弗吉尼亚铁路公司。那是 40 年前了。我说,查理,你觉得我们该不该在匹兹堡与西弗吉尼亚铁路上投一大笔钱?查理对我说,沃伦,如果你仔细研究过,自认为掌握了所有事实,而且你会认真对待,如果你打算把自己大笔钱投进去的话。他说,那我就闭上眼睛,直接说不。

BUFFETTWell, if you go back far enough, I called him one time on the Pittsburgh and West Virginia Railroad. This is 40 years ago. I said, Charlie, do you think we ought to put a lot of money on the Pittsburgh and West Virginia Railroad? And Charlie said to me, Warren, if you've studied it carefully, and you think you know all the facts, you're going to pay attention to it, if you're going to put a lot of your own money in it. He said, then I'll just shut my eyes and say no.

贝基那他说对了吗?

BECKYAnd was he right?

巴菲特他说对了。这就是让人恼火的地方。要是算我们意见分歧时的“打击率”,他正确的时候占比极高。

BUFFETTHe was right. That's the irritating part. If you take the batting average of the times we disagreed, he's been right a very high percentage of the time.

贝基查理,我知道你现在人在加州,但你每年都会专程赶来参加这场股东大会。

BECKYCharlie, I know that you are in California now, but you make it out every year for this meeting.

芒格那是我的家乡。我喜欢来。

MUNGERThat's my hometown. I like coming.

贝基对您来说,来到这里,见到伯克希尔的这些人,最重要的是什么?

BECKYWhat's important to you about being here and about seeing the people at Berkshire?

芒格嗯,每年回到家乡,作为伯克希尔这么庞大事业的一部分,看着它几十年来不断壮大、越来越受尊敬,这真是一种极为特别的体验。非常惬意。

MUNGERWell, it's a very remarkable experience to go back to your hometown every year as part of something as big as Berkshire, which keeps getting bigger and more admired as the decades go by. It's very pleasant.

贝基你们两位在认清自己的能力圈方面一直做得极为出色。这周末有位股东提问,想知道如何识别自己的能力圈。查理,对那些想要自己搞清楚这个问题的人,你有什么建议吗?

BECKYYou two have been excellent about knowing your circles of competency. There was a question from a shareholder this weekend asking how they could identify their own circles of competency. Charlie, do you have any advice to anybody who's trying to figure that out themselves?

芒格嗯,我其实更擅长判断自己哪里不行,然后干脆避开。我更愿意反过来想这个问题。

MUNGERWell I'm really better at determining my level of incompetency and then just avoiding that. And I prefer to think that question through in reverse.

巴菲特他喜欢反过来想。他说,我只想知道自己会死在哪儿,这样我就永远不去那儿。我的意思是,这就是他的思维方式。

BUFFETTHe likes to invert. He says, all I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there. I mean, that's his approach

大体上就是剔除一大堆东西。他特别擅长指出我的能力圈边界在哪里。

generally is casting out a whole bunch of things. He's good at pointing out where my levels of competency ends.

贝基查理,坦率地说,对一个想搞清楚这问题的人来说,你怎么知道自己什么时候已经冒进过头了?

BECKYAnd Charlie, honestly, for somebody who was trying to figure that out, how do you know when you're getting out over your skis?

查理·芒格我只能说,我们的击球命中率不错,这很可能是因为我们的能力比我们自己以为的要强一点。我们的做事方式本身就带着几分谦虚。

MUNGERAll I can say is we have a good batting average, and that is probably because we're probably a little more competent than we think we are. There's some modesty in what we're doing.

沃伦·巴菲特这一点可能非常有用。合伙关系能运行良好有很多原因。但如果你有一个极为尊敬的人对你说,你知道吗,沃伦,你真的越界了,踏进了一个你不该涉足的领域——我的意思是,他这么说的时候我会听进去,而他确实也会这么说。

BUFFETTIt probably is very useful. There's a lot of reasons why the partnership works. But to have someone that you respect enormously say, you know, you're really out in an area where you don't belong, Warren. I mean, I will pay attention to him when he says that, and he'll say it.

所以,我们在各自的职能上互相配合,确实有实际效用,其中一项就是简单地问对方一句:你确定你清楚自己在说什么吗?

So there's real utility in our functions together, for one to simply just say, are you sure you know what you're talking about?

贝基这又在股东大会上引出了另一个问题。我是说,你们二位合作得如此默契。当你们物色伯克希尔 CEO 职位的潜在继任者时,你们会如何在这个过程中引导他们,努力确保他们也能找到一位能同样默契共事、并且在对方可能做出错误决定时能直言相告的搭档?

BECKYThat raised another question at the shareholders meeting. I mean, you two work so well together. When you look at a potential successor for the CEO position at Berkshire, how do you help them along the way to try and make sure that they find someone who they can work equally well with and who can also point out when maybe they're making an incorrect decision?

芒格我几乎没见过哪个在认知层面颇有建树的人,身边会没有一个值得信赖的交流对象。爱因斯坦如果没有人可以交流,也做不出他那些成就。他不需要很多人,但总需要几个。

MUNGERI hardly know anybody who's done very well in life in terms of cognition that doesn't have somebody trusted to talk to. Einstein would not have been able to do what he did without people to talk to. Didn't need many, but he needed some.

你在试图说服别人的过程中,也是在梳理自己的思路。这是工作中极为必要的一环。假如有个隐士独居山顶,他不会有太大成就。

You organize your own thoughts as you try and convince other people. It's a very necessary part of operations. If you had some hermit sitting on a mountain, he wouldn't do very good.

巴菲特顺便说一句,查理……

BUFFETTAnd Charlie, by the way…

芒格我们这儿也有一些这样的人,他们干得不怎么样。(笑声)

MUNGERWe have some of those, and they aren't very good. (Laughter)

巴菲特查理总是强调,我们应该尽可能完整地陈述对方的论点,甚至要比对方本人说得更好。只有做到这一点,你才算彻底想透了自己的

BUFFETTCharlie will always emphasize the fact that we ought to state the other guy's case as well as he can and better than he can if possible. That's when you get to where you can think through your

论点,这多少可能得益于他所受的法律训练。但他总是从陈述对方的论点开始。

own case better, and that may be his legal training to some extent. But he starts out stating the opposite case.

贝基两位先生,我们的对话稍后继续。安德鲁,画面交还给你。

BECKYGentlemen, we are going to continue this conversation in just a moment. Andrew, I'll send it back to you.

(广告时间。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基欢迎回到《财经论谈》特别版。

BECKYWelcome back to a special edition of “Squawk Box”.

我们刚刚收到零售公司塔吉特(Target)的一条突发新闻。塔吉特宣布,公司首席执行官格雷格·斯泰因哈费尔(Gregg Steinhafel)即将卸任,辞呈即刻生效。他在辞职信中表示,近几个月塔吉特遭遇了一些前所未有的挑战,最突出的便是那起大规模数据泄露事件,数百万美国人的个人信息被窃取。这一切都发生在假日季期间,大致从感恩节前后开始,一直持续到十二月初。公司股价因此遭受重创。斯泰因哈费尔表示,他一直致力于确保塔吉特能够挺过数据泄露事件,成为一家更好的公司,而现在是公司更换领导层的合适时机。

We do have some breaking news just hitting from the retail company Target. Target is saying its CEO Gregg Steinhafel is stepping down. His resignation takes effect immediately. In his resignation letter he says that Target has faced some unprecedented challenges in recent months, most notably that massive data breach where millions of Americans' information was briefed. And this all happened over the holiday season, started right around Thanksgiving, went through early December. And that is something that the stock took a huge hit on. Steinhafel says that he's been focusing on ensuring Target emerges from the data breach as a better company, and that now is the right time for new leadership.

塔吉特首席财务官约翰·穆里根(John Mulligan)将出任临时首席执行官,直至找到正式继任者。公司还宣布,现任塔吉特董事会成员罗克珊·奥斯汀(Roxanne Austin)已被任命为董事会临时非执行主席。两人都将在这些职位上履职,直至正式继任者被任命。

Target CFO John Mulligan is going to be serving as interim CEO until a permanent successor is found. It also says that Roxanne Austin, who is a current member of Target Board of Directors, she has been appointed as the interim nonexecutive Chair of the Board. They say both will be serving in those roles until their permanent replacements are named.

公司还表示,已邀请斯泰因哈费尔在过渡期间担任顾问,他也已经同意。董事会称,对格雷格在长达 35 年的公司职业生涯中所做出的重大贡献和杰出服务深表感谢。

The company also says that they've asked Steinhafel to serve in an advisory capacity during that transition and that he has agreed. The board says it's deeply grateful to Gregg for his significant contributions and outstanding service for his notable 35-year career with the company.

但今天我们请到的两位嘉宾,还是查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特。两位先生,塔吉特公司最近不仅有数据泄露事件,还牵涉到它进军加拿大市场的举动。很多分析师一直盯着这件事,说这一步棋走错了。你们两位在零售业方面经验都相当丰富。

But our guest hosts today, again, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. Gentlemen, the news on Target comes not only after the data breach, but also after Target's expansion into Canada. That is something that has been a target for analysts who have said that that was the wrong move. You two have an awful lot of experience when it comes to retail.

沃伦·巴菲特实际上,我们有过很多糟糕的经历。

BUFFETTWe have a lot of awful experience, actually.

贝基·奎克你俩跟百货商场和其他零售店都有很长的渊源。不过查理,你现在还是好市多的董事会成员。

BECKYYou guys have a long history with the department store and other stores. But Charlie, you're still on the board of directors at Costco.

查理·芒格是的,但我不是经营它的人。

MUNGERYes, but I'm not running it.

贝基但我想知道你们两位怎么看这类新闻。过去半年左右,Target 的日子不太好过。

BECKYBut I wonder what you two think about news like this. Target has had a rough run over the last six months or so.

查理·芒格嗯,我认为这些数据泄露事件发生的可能性非常大,未来我们还会看到更多。而且我不觉得首席执行官在这件事上一定有什么严重过错。

MUNGERWell, I think these data breaches are so likely that we'll see more of them, and I don't think the CEO is necessarily at some terrible fault.

贝基我怀疑这更多与加拿大扩张有关,而不是数据泄露本身,因为斯坦哈费尔已经站出来,而且表现得相当坦率。

BECKYI wonder if this has more to do with the Canadian expansion than the data breach itself, because Steinhafel has come out and tried to be very forthright.

芒格我觉得我和沃伦在零售业的失败案例上,能跟任何人比一比。

MUNGERI think Warren and I can match anybody's failures in retail.

巴菲特是的,我们确实有一段很糟糕的记录,从 1966 年开始。我们在巴尔的摩买了一家我们以为是二流的百货商店,付的是三流的价格,但很快我们就发现,其实我们买了一间四流的百货商店,付的是三流的价格。我们没做好,失败了,而且失败……

BUFFETTYeah, we have a really bad record, starting in 1966. We bought what we thought was a second-rate department store in Baltimore at a third-rate price, but we found out very quickly that we bought a fourth-rate department store at a third-rate price. And we failed at it, and we failed …

芒格简短点。

MUNGERQuickly.

巴菲特对,简单说,确实是这样。我们在零售业还栽过其他跟头。零售这个行当极其艰难,部分原因在于你的竞争对手总是——而且常常成功——复制你任何行得通的做法。所以世界一直在变。很难建立一条竞争对手跨不过来的永久护城河。你见过零售业的巨头们,西尔斯、蒙哥马利·沃德、伍尔沃斯、格兰特、克雷斯吉。我是说,几十年来,好多巨头都倒下了。

BUFFETTYeah, quickly. That's true. We failed other times in retailing. Retailing is a tough, tough business, partly because your competitors are always attempting and very frequently successfully attempting to copy anything you do that's working. And so the world keeps moving. It's hard to establish a permanent moat that your competitor can't cross. And you've seen the giants of retail, the Sears, the Montgomery Wards, the Woolworth's, the Grants, the Kresges. I mean, over the years, a lot of giants have been toppled.

芒格昔日的大多数巨头都已销声匿迹。

MUNGERMost of the giants of yesteryear are done.

巴菲特塔吉特进了加拿大。进去花了不少钱,而且这条路不好走。你在那里遇到的每个客户都已经在跟别人做生意了,你的竞争对手也绝不可能原地踏步等着你。

BUFFETTTarget went into Canada. It cost a lot of money to go there, and it can be tough. Everybody is already doing business with somebody there, and your competitor is never standing still. So that

即使你发现它们眼下存在弱点,等你开始动手,商店一年后建成了,它们也在行动。目标总在移动。这是门艰难的生意。

even though you think they have vulnerability at this moment when you start in on something when your store is completed a year later, they're moving, too. It's always a moving target. It is a tough business.

贝基可现在我们就在内布拉斯加家具城,伯克希尔在这笔投资上做得相当成功。

BECKYAnd yet here we are at the Nebraska Furniture Mart that Berkshire has done very well with.

巴菲特没人能跟内布拉斯加家具城竞争。我的意思是,这家店的家居用品销售额超过国内任何一家店铺。而我们在全国市场里排第几?大概第 50 名吧?这家店年销售额 4.5 亿美元。光是在伯克希尔股东周期间,就能做到 4000 万美元。没有哪家店能提供那么丰富的品种。也没有哪家店能比我们卖得更便宜。但要达到这种统治地位,你不可能靠加拿大的连锁店实现——在那里你要跟沃尔玛以及一大堆其他对手竞争。

BUFFETTNobody is going to be able to compete with the Nebraska Furniture Mart. I mean, this store does more home furnishing business than any store in the country. And what are we in, I don't know, the 50th market in the country? This store does $450 million annually. It's doing $40 million during the Berkshire shareholders week. There's no store that remotely can offer the variety. There's no store that can undersell us. But to achieve that kind of dominance, you can't do it with a chain of stores in Canada when you're competing with Wal-Mart up there and a whole bunch of other people.

贝基沃伦,我知道你经常上网。但我想问查理,还有沃伦,你俩有谁在亚马逊上买过东西吗?

BECKYWarren, I know you use the internet a lot. But I wonder if Charlie, Warren, if either of you ever buys anything on Amazon?

芒格我的孩子偶尔会替我买。我自己从没亲自下过单。

MUNGERMy children buy it for me occasionally. I have never done it personally.

巴菲特我的助理代劳。

BUFFETTMy assistant.

贝基不过,你们怎么看亚马逊的商业模式?

BECKYWhat do you think about the Amazon business model, though?

芒格嗯,我觉得它比所有同行都更具颠覆性,这个模式相当强大,会改变整个美国。

MUNGERWell, I think it's very disruptive compared to everybody else, I think it's a formidable model that is going to change America.

巴菲特我同意。这是我这辈子见过的最强大的商业模式之一,而且运营这家公司的那个人,对自己想干什么想得非常清楚,每天上班都在干这件事,也不会被外界因素所牵制,比如有人告诉他每个季度该赚多少钱之类的事。而且他聪明得不得了,专注到了极点。他手里确实是一个极为强大的企业,而且拥有满意的客户。这一点极为重要。

BUFFETTI agree. It's one of the most powerful models that I've seen in a lifetime, and it's being run by a fellow that has had a very clear view of what he wants to do, and does it every day when he goes to work, and is not hampered by external factors like people telling him what he should earn quarterly or something of the sort. And ungodly smart, focused. He's really got a powerful business, and he's got satisfied customers. That's hugely important.

贝基查理,刚才我们有机会和沃伦聊了聊美国公司税法的部分内容,也聊到了近期我们看到的一些新收购。辉瑞今天一早发了财报,所以我们聊了聊——

BECKYCharlie, earlier we got the chance to talk with Warren about some of the U.S. corporate tax code and some of the new acquisitions that we've seen. Pfizer reported earlier this morning, so we talked a

也简单聊了聊辉瑞收购阿斯利康的计划,他们打算通过一个所谓“倒置”的操作,把税务注册地迁到英国——因为据我了解,辉瑞在美国大概要缴 27% 的税,如果税务注册地落在英国,税率可以降到接近 21% 或 22%。之前也聊到过——

little bit about Pfizer's plan to buy AstraZeneca and use an inversion where they would move their tax domicile to the UK because I guess they pay about 27 percent here in the United States. If it was a UK tax domicile they would pay closer to 21 or 22 percent. There was a little bit of conversation around —

芒格嗯,我觉得这些制药公司就是想把税率往下压,最后压到零才肯罢休。只有零才能让他们高兴。

MUNGERWell, I think the pharmacy companies try and get to the tax rate, they're on their way to zero. That's the only one that would make them happy.

贝基不过,你们怎么看这股风气?伯克希尔过去也利用过税法,确保一切操作都采用最节税的方式。

BECKYWhat do you think about that whole practice, though? Berkshire has taken advantage of tax code in the past to make sure it's doing things in the most tax effective way.

芒格我们永远不会故意把我们在美国的税率压到零,甚至连接近零都不会。对其他人来说,那倒算是理想目标。

MUNGERWe would never take our U.S. tax rate to zero on purpose, or even close to it. For other people that's sort of an ideal.

贝基即便调到了 22%,还是比很多美国公司实际交的税要高——如果辉瑞确实完成倒置,把税务注册地迁走的话。

BECKYGetting to 22 percent is still more than a lot of U.S. companies would be paying, if Pfizer does do that inversion and goes ahead and moves the tax domicile.

芒格现在时兴的风气就是想把税率往死里降。

MUNGERIt's the rage now to get the tax rate down.

贝基我想我的同事乔·科南在演播室也准备了一个问题。乔?

BECKYI think Joe Kernen, my colleague, has a question back at home, too. Joe?

查理,我刚翻资料,看到你以前也跟沃伦聊过这个话题,对吧?你有一段公开表态。有一条标题是这么写的:巴菲特在股东大会上因美国公司税问题与芒格意见冲突。

JOEI'm just reading in the past that you have talked to Warren about this before, Charlie, right? You are on the record. Here's a headline: Buffet clashes with Munger over U.S. corporate taxes at a meeting.

我引用一下你当时的原话:“企业税率应该大幅降低。当世界其他各国不断下调税率时,如果我们的税率高出很多,我们就会陷入某种劣势。”

I will quote what you said. "The corporate tax rate should be much lower. When the rest of the world keeps bringing the rates down, there's some disadvantage to us if we're much higher."

查理,你最近对这点改变看法了吗,还是仍然这么觉得?

Did you change your opinion on that recently, Charlie, or do you still feel that way?

查理·芒格我不会——把税率稍微降低一点确实有它的道理,但从 35% 降到 33% 之类,跟把制药业务搬到某个小地方从而把税率降到零,可不是一回事。

MUNGERI would not — there's something to be said for making the tax rate a little lower, but going from 35 to 33 or something is not like taking it to zero by moving your pharmaceutical manufacturing to some tiny little place.

乔·科南我不是在问很多地方——你说吧。

JOEI'm not asking about a lot of places — go ahead.

查理·芒格我觉得如果公司税率低一些,经济可能会运行得好一点。但我认为,美国企业要是真享受到极低的税率,那会是个错误。

MUNGERI think the economy might work a little better if the corporate tax rate was low. But I think it would be a mistake for American corporations to get really low taxes.

巴菲特而且你说的税率降低,不是指企业整体税负降低,而只是拉平税率,对吧?

BUFFETTAnd when you talk about the tax rate being lower, you're not talking aggregate corporate tax rates being lower; you're just talking about evening out the rate, right?

查理·芒格对。我希望有一个统一的税率,每个人都按这个交税。

MUNGERYes. I would like a consistent rate that everybody paid.

贝基更像辛普森-鲍尔斯(Simpson-Bowles)委员会提的那种方案,取消掉很多——

BECKYSomething more like Simpson-Bowles was talking about, getting rid of a lot of the —

查理·芒格更像是拉脱维亚那种。

MUNGERSomething more like Latvia.

贝基拉脱维亚?

BECKYLatvia?

巴菲特没人知道拉脱维亚到底是个什么鬼地方——

BUFFETTNobody knows what the hell Latvia means —

乔·科南查理,拉脱维亚的税率是多少?你知道吗?

JOECharlie, what is the rate in Latvia? Do you know?

查理·芒格他们实行单一税率。

MUNGERThey have a single tax rate.

乔·科南立陶宛也一样。大概是 15%。我觉得是 10%,不过对其他所有人按 15% 的统一税率征收。而且我印象中立陶宛的企业税率是 10%。

JOESo does Lithuania. It's like 15 percent. I think it's 10 percent, but a 15 percent flat tax on everyone else. But I think the corporate rate is 10 percent in Lithuania.

查理·芒格大体上,我会对消费征更高的税,对企业的盈利征更低的税。这在香港和不少地方都运行得非常好。我觉得我们未必配得上这种税制,但假如采用这种税制,经济可能会运行得更好。

MUNGERGenerally speaking, I would tax consumption higher and earning power of business a little lower. It just works so well in Hong Kong and various places. I don't think we deserve it, but maybe the economy would work better if we had it.

安德鲁我能接着追问你周末说的另一件事吗,沃伦也提过。另一个有点非传统的想法。我们在股东大会提问环节聊到薪酬和薪酬披露的问题。你提出了一个观点,我想很多观众可能会觉得意外——你说薪酬披露可能不是件好事。愿意展开讲讲吗?

ANDREWCan I follow up with you on something else you said over the weekend, and Warren did, too. Another sort of unconventional thought. We had a conversation in the question about compensation and the disclosure of compensation. You made a point that I think many of our viewers may find surprising about how disclosure may not be a good thing. Do you want to elaborate?

查理·芒格嗯,我认为嫉妒是人类与生俱来的一个重大难题,所以它在法律中才会那么突出……

MUNGERWell, I think envy is one of the major problems of the human condition, and that's why it figured so prominently in the laws

摩西的律法。记住,他说你连邻居的驴都不可贪恋。

of Moses. Remember, he said you couldn't even covet your neighbor's donkey.

巴菲特我从没有过。

BUFFETTI never have.

芒格对,但别人确实那么干了。所以我觉得,这种“因为别人拿高薪,所以我也要拿高薪”的竞赛,很大程度上是被那些大肆宣扬高薪的舆论给煽动起来的。

MUNGERYeah, but other people did. And so I think this race to have high compensation because other people do, has been fomented by all this publicity about higher earnings.

我认为这对国家来说相当适得其反。人们对此类信息披露的自然反应是,每个人都想向最高标准看齐。沃伦,我觉得我们陷入这种攀比竞赛是疯狂的。

I think it's quite counterproductive for the nation. There's a natural reaction to all this disclosure because everybody wants to match the highest. Warren, I think that's a crazy race for us to get into.

巴菲特我从来没在哪个董事会上见过这样的场景:CEO 走进来,挥舞着某竞争公司的股东委托书说,“看,这家伙拿得比我少,我大概也该降薪了。”

BUFFETTI've never been on a board of directors where the CEO came in and, waving the proxy statement of some competitor, and said, Here, this guy is making less. I probably should be making less, too.

这种事不会发生。高管薪酬公开发布会产生一种比价效应。每个薪酬委员会听到的都是顾问在拿第四分位或第三分位做比较——他们永远只跟第二分位比,这就把薪酬水平往上推。这很自然:如果你是一家公司的董事,看到 XYZ 公司的 CEO 赚得更多,你就会想:“我们的人至少跟他们的人一样优秀。”于是一轮又一轮地加码。所以,高管薪酬公开化让美国股东花了冤枉钱。也许有人说,披露是最好的消毒剂,阳光是最好的消毒剂——但在支付高管薪酬这件事上,阳光让美国股东亏了钱。

It doesn't happen. There is a rationing effect that is produced by the publication of large salaries. And every comp committee is not hearing the comparison by the consultant to the fourth quartile or the third quartile. It's always to the second quartile, and that will produce a rationing. It's very natural to think if you're a director of the ABC Corp. and the CEO of the XYZ Corp is getting more, well, our guy is at least as good as theirs. And it goes on and on and on. So publication of the top salaries has cost the American shareholder money. Maybe disclosure is the great disinfectant, all of that, sunshine is the great disinfectant. Sunshine has cost American shareholders money when it comes to paying their managers.

芒格你说得对,这的确是我们的一点怪癖,但我们是对的,就和摩西一样正确。

MUNGERYou're right, a peculiarity of ours, but we're right, just as Moses was.

(笑声。)

(Laughter.)

巴菲特还有两者之间的一些人。

BUFFETTAnd other people in between.

贝基我们接着跟查理和沃伦聊下去。

BECKYWe're going to continue this conversation with Charlie and Warren.

事实上,我们回来之后,还将邀请另一位了不起的商业领袖加入我们的对话——微软创始人比尔·盖茨将在本次休息后,现场加入我们。

In fact, when we come back, we are adding yet another amazing business leader to this conversation, Microsoft founder Bill Gates will join us live right after this break.

我们的对话马上继续。另外,在进入休息时间前,请看“财经论谈”市场指标。今天早上期货经历了一些压力。你会看到现在期货仍在读数中。我们还会关注十年期国债,因为其收益率已降至 2.6% 以下。别走开,“财经论谈”马上回来。

Our conversation will continue in just a moment. Also, as we head to the break, check out the “Squawk Box” market indicator. We have seen futures under a little bit of pressure this morning. You'll see right now futures are still in the read. We'll also take a look at the ten-year note, because the yield there dipped below 2.6 percent. Stick around. “Squawk Box” will be right back.

(广告插播。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基好的。乔,非常感谢。我们正在对话的,是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特,副董事长查理·芒格。现在,圆桌访谈又加入一位重量级的商界领袖:比尔·盖茨。他是微软的创始人,也是比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会的联合主席。他还入选了上周公布的 CNBC“首批 25 人”榜单,并且是伯克希尔董事会的成员。这就是为什么今天这几位先生都坐在这里。比尔,感谢你今早参与我们的节目。

BECKYAll right. Joe, thank you very much. Again, we are speaking to Warren Buffett, the Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Charlie Munger, the vice chairman, and now we are adding another powerful business leader to the roundtable: Bill Gates. He is the founder of Microsoft and the co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. He's also a member of the CNBC First 25 list that was revealed last week and he is on the board of directors right here at Berkshire. That's why we have these gentlemen here today. Bill, thank you for joining us this morning.

比尔·盖茨,微软创始人今天能来到这里,真棒。

BILL GATES, MICROSOFT FOUNDERGreat to be here.

贝基我特别想听你们三位聊聊,你们到底都聊些什么。刚才一坐下你们就在聊蒙古。你们什么都聊。那你们对蒙古了解多少?

BECKYOne of the things I would love to hear from you three is just what it is you talk about. When you just sat down you were talking about Mongolia. You guys will talk about anything and everything. What do you know about Mongolia?

盖茨商业故事总是让我们很着迷,矿物需求的旺盛使得蒙古这样的国家不断开出大型新矿,该国也在决定如何运用来自这些矿产的收入。我们有个朋友持有乌兰巴托零售业务 10% 的股份,所以他跟我们讲了那里整个运作的情况。

GATESWell, business stories are fascinating to us and all the demand for minerals has meant that countries like Mongolia have opened up big new mines and the country's deciding what they're going to do with the revenues they're getting from that. A friend we have owns 10 percent of the retail operations in Ulan Bator so he was telling us how that's all working.

贝基今天你们开董事会的时候,当然不能透露具体细节,但那些董事会是怎么开的?由谁来主持会议?

BECKYWhen you were at the board of directors meeting today, obviously you can't talk about specifics on things, how do those board of directors go? How are things led?

芒格就是一场一团和气的聚会。

MUNGERIt's a lovefest.

巴菲特(笑)我希望是这样。

BUFFETT(Laughs) I hope so.

芒格那里不是个到处挑刺的地方。

MUNGERIt's not a highly critical place.

盖茨这个我们该说吗?

GATESAre we supposed to say that?

(笑声)

(Laughter)

芒格我无所谓。

MUNGERI don‟t care.

贝基沃伦,你上周末确实讲过,在董事会这件事上,大多数时候他们找的不是杜宾犬,而是可卡犬,然后还想方设法让它们的尾巴一直摇。伯克希尔的董事会也是这么运作的吗?

BECKYWarren, you did make the comment over the weekend that when it comes to boards, too often they don't look for Dobermans, they look for Cocker Spaniels and then try to make sure their tails are wagging. Is that how the Berkshire board runs runs, too?

巴菲特不,伯克希尔找董事,标准是股东导向、懂生意、并且对伯克希尔感兴趣。我们认为这些标准是合理的。别人有一大堆不同的清规戒律。但我们这群董事几乎不拿什么报酬,而且他们必须——他们的兴趣只能源自他们觉得这里有意思,在很多情况下还源自他们在这里有巨额投资。这些投资都是他们自己掏钱买的,没人送他们股票。所以这是个极不寻常的董事会。但也是个极其出色的董事会。

BUFFETTNo, Berkshire we look for directors that were shareholderoriented, business-savvy, and interested in Berkshire. And we think those criteria make sense. Other people have a whole bunch of different checklists. But we have a group of directors that get paid virtually nothing, and they have to — their interest has to come about because they find the place interesting, and in many cases because they have huge investments. And they made those investments themselves. Nobody gave them shares. So it's a very unusual board. But it's a terrific board.

贝基我们听过了你和查理第一次见面的故事。那讲讲你和比尔第一次见面的故事吧?

BECKYWe heard the story about how you and Charlie first met up. How about the story about how you and Bill first met?

巴菲特嗯,他是被逼着来见我的。

BUFFETTWell, he was forced to meet me.

盖茨确实是这样。当时我妈邀请了(前《华盛顿邮报》发行人)凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆和沃伦来家里做客,而我还处于除了微软的工作别的什么都不想干的偏执状态,所以最后同意过去一趟。说实话——我犯了个错误,以为沃伦看世界的角度就只是盯着图表和股票成交量,根本不看生意的基本面。

GATESThat's true. My mom was having (former Washington Post publisher) Kate Graham and Warren over, and I was still sort of maniacal about not doing anything but working at Microsoft and so I agreed to come by. I actually — I made this mistake thinking that Warren's view of the world was just about charts and stock volumes and not about the fundamentals of business.

所以见面之后,他开始问我:你怎么跟 IBM 竞争、你的股票怎么定价、未来会往哪走,那感觉真是棒极了。那是我经历过的最有意思的对话。就这样,一段了不起的友谊开始了。

So when we met and he was asking me how do you compete with IBM, how do you price your stock, where is it going, it was fantastic. It was the most fun conversation I'd ever had. So that started an amazing friendship.

巴菲特我们钻进卧室继续聊,那时连华盛顿州州长都来了。比尔的父亲人特别好,但看到我们坐在卧室里聊个不停,有点光火了。

BUFFETTWe got to the bedroom, talking, and the governor of Washington had come. And Bill's dad was a wonderful man, but he got irritated with the fact that we were sitting in the bedroom talking.

最后他非常客气地走进来,说:“两位小伙子,愿不愿意考虑去跟州长聊两句?”

And finally he came in very politely, he said, "Would you boys think about talking to the Governor?"

贝基·奎克所以您待的时间比原计划稍微久了点?

BECKYSo you stayed a little longer than maybe you planned?

比尔·盖茨是啊,两边都好奇我们这两拨人能聊些什么,结果那天过得特别精彩。仅仅几周之后,我又上去了一趟,沃伦当时正和一群朋友聊商业和股票,从那时起我们的对话就再也没断过。

GATESYeah, both sides wondered what these two groups were going to talk about, and had an amazing day. And it was only a few weeks later that I went up and Warren had a group of friends who were talking about business and stocks and so it's been a conversation ever since then.

贝基·奎克查理,周末的时候你提到,就节俭的人来说,伯克希尔把这类人都聚到了一起。你们在找节俭的人。但我注意到一件事。你们喜欢结交的朋友和同事,往往都具备比尔刚才所说的那些特质——会审视生意、把它想透的人。这是怎么回事?

BECKYYou know, Charlie, you made the comment over the weekend that when it comes to frugal people, you collect these type of people at Berkshire. You're looking for frugal people. But one thing I have noticed. You tend to collect friends and colleagues who have all those characteristics that Bill was just talking about. People who look at business and who think through it. How did that happen?

查理·芒格是这样,你就喜欢那些求知欲强的人嘛,而且我觉得,一个人如果不持续琢磨,怎么可能越活越明白。

MUNGERWell, when you like people who are intellectually curious, and I don't see how you can wise up all the time if you aren't working at it.

贝基·奎克你是怎么做到的?每天都读书吗?

BECKYHow do you do that? Do you read every day?

查理·芒格当然。

MUNGERSure.

巴菲特我早就知道查理和比尔会合得来。

BUFFETTI knew Charlie and Bill would hit it off.

比尔·盖茨查理确实很了不起。

GATESCharlie's amazing.

贝基·奎克我想分别问一下几位。你们现在在读,或者最近读了什么,愿意推荐给别人读的书?比尔。

BECKYLet me ask each of you. What is something that you're reading now or you are you've read recently that you would recommend that other people read? Bill.

比尔·盖茨伊齐基尔·伊曼纽尔(Zeke Emanuel)写了一本关于美国医疗费用的书,讲我们怎么走到今天这么复杂的局面,并对未来做了一些预测。人们可能不认同他的观点——实际上,我自己也对其中的部分观点持不同意见。但这本书写得非常好,围绕这个关键议题,我们应该展开一场更有知情度的对话。

GATESZeke Emanuel wrote a book about medical costs in America and how we got to the complex situation we have. And he makes some predictions about the future. And people can disagree with him. Actually I disagree with some of it. But it's very well written, and we should have a more informed dialogue about that critical topic.

贝基·奎克查理,你呢?

BECKYCharlie, how about you?

查理·芒格嗯,我刚读完《法拉第、麦克斯韦与电磁场》。

MUNGERWell, I have just read "Faraday, Maxwell, and the Electromagnetic Field."

贝基·奎克那是本讲什么的书?

BECKYWhat is that?

查理·芒格它既是一部科学家传记,同时也讲解相关的物理学原理,特别是电学部分。这是我读过的同类书中最好的一本,我极为享受,根本放不下来。书里展现了人类一项非凡的成就。而且,两位作者都不是物理学家出身。

MUNGERIt's a combination of scientific biography and explanation of the physics, particularly relating to electricity. It's just the best book of its kind I have ever read, and I just hugely enjoyed it. Couldn't put it down. It was a fabulous human achievement. And neither of the writers is a physicist.

贝基·奎克两个都不是。好的,沃伦?

BECKYNeither of them. Okay. Warren?

巴菲特我知道为什么一按开关灯会亮,但那本书我就是读不懂。只好翻篇了。

BUFFETTWhy the light goes on when you hit the switch, but I couldn't understand the book. I had to move on.

我读了(美国前财政部长)蒂姆·盖特纳(Tim Geithner)的书,这本书再过一周左右就会出版。任何人,无论是从政者、金融从业者还是金融监管者,都应该读一读。盖特纳说得对,未来还会出现更多恐慌。他讲了恐慌无从回避,也讲了该怎么应对。这是一本非常非常好的书。

I read (former U.S. Treasury Secretary) Tim Geithner's book which will be out in another week or so, and anybody, politician or financial manager, financial supervisor should read that book. Tim correctly says that you're going to run into more panics in the future, and there's not a thing about them and here is what to do. And it's a very, very good book.

贝基他认为我们还会遭遇更多金融恐慌。大概多久以后?

BECKYHe thinks we'll run into more financial panics. How far down the road?

巴菲特他也不知道。我也不知道。他只是说,人类的行为方式始终如一。他描述了人们在历次危机中如何行事,这一次又如何行事,以及必须采取哪些措施。这是本好书。

BUFFETTHe has no idea. And I have no idea. He just says humans are behaving the same way. And he describes how they behaved in various ways and how they behaved this time. And what has to be done. It's a good book.

贝基换句话说,下次也不会有什么不同。还会有下次吗?

BECKYIn other words, next time will not be different. There will be a next time?

巴菲特肯定还会有下次。

BUFFETTThere will be a next time.

查理·芒格带头的可能还是同一批人。

MUNGERIt may be led by the same people.

贝基同一批人指的是?

BECKYBy the same people meaning?

查理·芒格那些金融家们。

MUNGERThe financiers.

贝基银行。

BECKYThe banks.

查理·芒格里面没有女人。

MUNGEROther than a woman.

(笑声)

(Laughter)

(广告时间。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基今天上午的几位特邀嘉宾,稍后都将出席伯克希尔的董事会会议:沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格,以及比尔·盖茨。

BECKYOur special guests this morning will all be at the Berkshire board meeting later today: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates.

各位先生,有人会拼了命想要这样一个机会,坐在这里跟你们聊生意。我想干脆抛几个话题出来,看看你们各自有什么想法。

Gentlemen, people would die for the opportunity to get here and sit and talk to you about business. What I would like to do is just throw some topics out to you and maybe you guys can respond on your thoughts on things.

首先,关于激进投资者。我们看到激进投资在抬头。卡尔·伊坎(Carl Icahn)、比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)——阿克曼这周末其实就在现场。我就想听听三位对激进投资的看法。这对美国来说是好事,还是不是?

First up, about activist investors. We have seen a rise of activist investing. Carl Icahn, Bill Ackman, who was actually here this weekend. I just wonder what the three of you think about activist investing. Is it a good thing for America or not?

查理?

Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,有时候挺好,有时候糟透了。恐怕事情就是这样。

MUNGERWell, sometimes it's good, and sometimes it's awful. And I'm afraid that's just the way it is.

贝基比尔,你呢?你怎么看?

BECKYBill, what about you? What do you think about it?

比尔·盖茨嗯,在股东结构层级里,股东应该对董事会和管理层的行动保持一定程度的纪律性。有时候,大家的焦点似乎过度集中在非常短期的因素上,比如股息政策,而不是管理团队的实力和长期战略。但股东拥有权力,是这个体系中非常重要的一部分。

GATESWell, there's a level of discipline that shareholders, in the hierarchy, they should be viewing the actions of the board management. Sometimes it seems to get focused on very short-term things, like the dividend policy, as opposed to the strength of the management team and the long-term strategy. But shareholders having power is a very important part of the system.

贝基·奎克不过,会不会有一个嗓门特别大、但实际上只持有一小部分股票的股东,把股票给绑架了?

BECKYCan shares get hijacked, though, by a shareholder who is very loud but who happens to have a small position in a stock?

盖茨只要媒体允许这种情况发生。

GATESOnly if the press allows it to happen.

(笑声)

(Laughter)

贝基嗯,你完全可以这么指责我们。我们当然欢迎任何和所有的激进股东。

BECKYWell, you can say we've been guilty of that. We will certainly take any and all activist shareholders.

巴菲特美国有数以千计的公司。有些会被经营得很差,有些会被管理层以极度自私的方式运作。那么,纠正这种情况靠什么?股东积极行动可以纠正其中的一部分。

BUFFETTYou have thousands of corporations. Some of them are going to be poorly run and some of them are going to be run in a very self-interested manner by the managers. What is the correction for that? And activism can be a correction for some of that.

我经常觉得,那些积极维权的人——他们正是靠这个来吸引资金的。大量资金正涌入与积极维权相关的投资工具。衡量的标准其实是,你是否能在极短时间内把股价拉上去。

I think very often the activism — and they are attracting money on this basis. The money is pouring into activist-related-type investment vehicles. The measure really is whether you get the stock up in a very short period of time.

我还记得,当时全美管理最好的公司,大都会/美国广播公司,股价只有其价值的三分之一。这时候来个维权投资者,跟你说:“你干嘛不把资产卖掉点什么的?”

I can remember when the best-managed company I knew in the United States, Capital Cities, was selling for a third of what it was worth. And an activist might come around and say, „Why don't you sell off the properties or something?‟

所以,股价的即刻上涨不该成为衡量一家公司内部某人是否成功完成某事的标尺。但有些时候,公司确实需要变革,而它们自己却不会主动去做。

So an immediate bump in the stock price should not be the measure of whether somebody has accomplished something successfully in a corporation. But there are times when change is needed in corporations and they're not going to do it themselves.

贝基安德鲁也有一个问题要问。安德鲁?

BECKYAndrew has a question too. Andrew?

安德鲁沃伦,我想就周末聊过的一个话题继续问您,就是比尔·阿克曼在最近瓦兰特与艾尔建那笔交易里的做法——他实际上跟瓦兰特联手,在瓦兰特还没正式出价之前就买入艾尔建的股票,而且他早知道收购要约要来了。有些人认为这相当于抢先交易或者内幕交易。我想听听您从政策角度怎么看这种策略,以及您觉得它对市场意味着什么。

ANDREWWarren, I want to follow up on something we talked about over the weekend, which is actually Bill Ackman's approach in this recent transaction between Valeant and Allergan, where he effectively teamed up with Valeant and bought shares of Allergan before they actually made the bid, knowing that the bid was coming. Some people have argued that is the equivalent of front-running or inside trading. I wanted to get your thoughts on that tactic from a policy perspective and what you think it means to the market.

巴菲特嗯,我敢肯定他请了好律师来把关。不过,你知道,如果我是因为得知有人可能要做某些事才买入那只股票,而且我是通过某种特定渠道得知的,那我就会有麻烦。但如果他们联合起来,那当然,一家有意发出收购要约的公司是有权买入一些股票的。至于你能组成多大的团体,也许你可以拉上整个对冲基金圈的人,让他们全都出去疯狂买入几个星期的股票。但如果他们是这个团体的一部分,也许那也没什么用。

BUFFETTWell, I'm sure he had it well-lawyered. But, you know, if I bought that stock because I'd learned that somebody might be doing something and I learned it in certain way, I would be in trouble. But if they join forces, you know, certainly a company that has in mind making a bid is entitled to buy some stock. And how big a group you can form, maybe you could form a group with a whole hedge fund community and have them all go out and buy stock like crazy for a couple weeks. And if they're part of a group, maybe it doesn't help.

不过我要说的是:如果真是这样,那大概该改改了。

But I would say this: If that should be the case, it probably should be changed.

BECKY乔?

BECKYJoe?

乔·科南谢谢,贝基。我想请这三位了不起的绅士,快速谈谈这个人。我再提一次他的名字:托马斯·皮凯蒂。他是法国精英学府的学者,眼下最火的经济学著作就是他写的(《21 世纪资本论》)。你们肯定听说过。这本书谈的是资本主义在收入和贫富差距方面的阴暗面。他说资本主义从本质上就会滋生这种东西,我们这几年只是运气好,情况才没更糟。

JOEThanks, Beck. All three of these great gentlemen, I would like to just hear them opine quickly on this. I'm going to say his name again: Thomas Piketty. He's a French elitist academic that has the hottest book on economics right now. (Capital in the Twenty-First Century.) I'm sure you have read about it. It talked about capitalism in the down side in terms of income and quality. That capitalism he says by definition engenders, that we've just been lucky in recent years that it's not even worse.

所以我们在重新审视什么体系最合适。我想到了你,比尔·盖茨,想到了你通过资本主义在某方面积累了一生财富后能做些什么——而且你现在确实在用这些财富做很多好事。

So we're revisiting what system is the most appropriate. I think about you, Bill Gates, and what you're able to do with everything that you amass in your lifetime through capitalism in some respect, and certainly you're doing a lot of good with it now.

但资本主义本身,是好事还是坏事?

But in and of itself, is capitalism good or a bad thing?

比尔·盖茨嗯,这跟我们试过的其他任何体制比起来,当然都是一件非常棒的事情。皮凯蒂主要讲的是财富留存。也就是说,如果你几代人都能获得很高的资本回报,那就会产生一群人,他们手里握有不成比例的大量财富。想想我们三个人所代表的财富,这些都是第一代积累的财富,说明这个体制有活力。他对回报率做了一些假设,我不确定这些假设长期来看是否成立。但他所谈论的问题,直接补救办法就是某种遗产税或财富税。他实际上主张的是财富税,我觉得这很难操作。但我本人是相信遗产税的,这能缓解他说的那种现象。不过——

GATESWell, of course it's a fantastic thing versus any other system we've tried. And Piketty's mostly talking about retained wealth. That is, if you have high returns on capital for generations, then you get a group of people that have a disproportionate part of the money. If you think about the three fortunes represented here, these are firstgeneration fortunes that show there is dynamism in this system. He makes some assumptions about returns that I'm not sure are true for the long-term. But the direct remedy for what he's talking about is some type of estate tax or well tax. He actually comes out for a well tax, which I think is hard to do. But an estate tax, which I happen to believe in, is something that would reduce the phenomena that he talks about. But —

乔·科南这事我之前也和沃伦聊过,你们两位也可以回答。但把钱都提前捐出去,我觉得沃伦其实跟我承认过,他认为在私营领域,慈善组织能更好地运用这些钱,因为这么做可以避免——当你把所有钱都捐掉时,最终确实能避免它落到山姆大叔(指美国政府)手里,对吧?

JOEI've talked to Warren about this before too, and you guys can answer too, but to give all your money away beforehand, I think Warren has actually admitted to me that he thinks in the private sector that it will be better used by charitable organizations because it does avoid — when you give it all away, it does avoid it going to Uncle Sam in the end anyway, right?

安德鲁嗯,这也是个问题。这仍然是个代际问题。我不能替比尔回答。

ANDREWWell, that's a problem too. It's still a generational issue. I don't get to answer for Bill.

巴菲特但你举的那个例子有个前提——如果我不把钱全捐给慈善,是可以安排成比这个比例更高。但我完全可以做出 60% 的财富变成传世财富。如果我真像很多人那样在意传世财富,我可以安排让远远超过 60% 的钱传下去。

BUFFETTBut you set it up in a case there in the sense that if I didn't give it all to philanthropy, I can arrange it so it's greater than this. But I could certainly create 60 percent that would be dynastic wealth. And if I was really concerned about dynastic wealth, as many people are, I could set it up so that far more than 60 percent went to

乔·科南如果你觉得联邦政府能把钱好好利用起来,你可以把全部遗产捐给联邦政府。

JOEYou could bequeath it all to the federal government if you thought it was going to be a good use of the funds.

巴菲特那是选择问题。我只是想说,选择并不在慈善和——说你无法创造——这种说法是错的。

BUFFETTThat's a choice. I'm just saying the choice is not between philanthropy and — it's false to say you can't create —

乔·科南我不是这个意思。我只是说,你看起来从来就不像是那种认为政府是资本最佳去向的人。

JOEThat's not what I'm saying. I'm just saying you have never necessarily looked like you thought the government was the best place to allow capital to be utilized.

巴菲特这点我同意。

BUFFETTI agree with you on that.

乔·科南说得不错。

JOEThat's pretty good.

贝基两位先生,我们很快休息一下。当然,乔,之后我们还有更多内容。

BECKYGentlemen, we're going to take a very quick break here. Of course, Joe, we do have more coming up after this.

(广告时间。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基欢迎回到“财经谈”特别节目。今早的特别嘉宾是:沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格,还有比尔·盖茨。

BECKYWelcome back to a special edition with “Squawk Box”. Our special guests this morning: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates.

各位,另一个我想听听你们看法的话题是:高频交易。查理,我想听听你对高频交易者的看法。迈克尔·刘易斯那本书说得对吗——他们是在从市场顶端撇油,操纵市场?

Gentlemen, another topic I would like to hear from you on. Highfrequency trading. Charlie, I'd like to get your opinion about what you think about high-frequency traders. Is the book right, that lays out for Michael Lewis that they are — they're skimming off the top and it's a fixed market?

查理·芒格嗯,他们当然有优势,还是靠精明手段弄来的。当然,这对文明世界的其他人毫无益处。这实质上就跟放老鼠进粮仓一样。(停顿)不,我不喜欢这样。

MUNGERWell, of course they have an advantage. Cleverly obtained. Of course it does the rest of the civilization no good at all. It's the functional equivalent of letting rats into a grainery. (Pause) No, I don't like it.

(笑声)

(Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我当时在想他到底想说什么。

BUFFETTI wondered what his point was.

贝基查理,比尔,你们同意还是——沃伦,比尔,你们同意还是不同意查理的观点?

BECKYCharlie, Bill, do you agree or — Warren, Bill, do you agree or disagree with Charlie?

比尔·盖茨这看起来没增加多少价值,因为当你急需流动性的时候,它并不保证一定存在。所以我不是这方面的专家,但这看起来像是一个奇怪的利润来源。

GATESIt doesn't seem like it's much value added because it's not, when you get — you really need the liquidity, it's not guaranteed to be there. So I'm not an expert on it, but it seems like a strange source of profit.

沃伦·巴菲特它不是流动性提供者。它可能会增加交易量,但那跟成为流动性提供者不是一回事。如果它涉及抢先交易,那我认为整个社会一般来说都有充分理由反对抢先交易——在老式的抢先交易里,他们有规则明令禁止。

BUFFETTIt's not a liquidity provider. It may create more volume. But that's not the same as being a liquidity provider. To the extent that it's front-running, I think society generally has been against frontrunning for good reasons and where it's — in the old-fashioned frontrunning, they had rules against it.

他们凭借速度获得了天然优势——无非是搞清系统的运作机制,然后抢先一步——这对国内生产总值或任何东西都毫无贡献,对商品和服务的实际产出也没有半点作用。另一方面,市场并不受管制。对小投资者来说,他们的处境从未这么好过。高频交易我觉得很可能不会让他们损失一分钱。

Here they gained a natural advantage by speed just by figuring out how the system worked and then getting there first, and that adds nothing to GDP or anything, a real output of goods and services. On the other hand, the market isn't regulated. And for the small investor, they've never had it so good. And high-frequency trading I don't think costs them a penny probably.

贝基我看到比尔在点头。查理,你也同意这个说法吗?

BECKYI see Bill nodding with that. Charlie, you agree with that too?

查理·芒格总有人在买单。上帝可不会凭空变出钱来。

MUNGERSomebody is paying it. God is not creating extra money.

沃伦·巴菲特是大单。

BUFFETTIt's the big orders.

比尔·盖茨如果交易频率不高,那么所有这些摩擦成本就会相当低。

GATESIf you don't trade very often, then all these frictional costs can be quite modest.

贝基如果你是个频繁的日内交易者,进进出出。

BECKYIf you're a frequent day trader. Running in and out.

查理·芒格那些代表普通人的大型机构。不,我认为这是一种诅咒,而且我觉得那本书的作者基本上是对的。

MUNGERThe big institutions operating on behalf of the little people. No, I think it's a curse, and I think the author of the book was basically right.

贝基安德鲁也有个问题。安德鲁。

BECKYAndrew has a question too. Andrew.

查理·芒格而且他文章写得也不错。

MUNGERAnd he writes well, too.

安德鲁沃伦,跟这件事相关的是,伯克希尔旗下有个公司叫商业通讯社(Business Wire)。他们跟美通社(PR Newswire)以及其他几家公司一起,与(纽约州)总检察长埃里克·施奈德曼就这个抢先交易的问题达成了和解——您请继续。

ANDREWWarren, related to this, one of the Berkshire companies is Business Wire. They reached a settlement along with PR Newswire and a couple of the others with the (New York State) Attorney General Eric Schneiderman about this idea of front-running — go ahead.

巴菲特我得纠正一下,安德鲁。他们并没有达成和解。他们决定——是我和(首席执行官)凯茜·巴伦·塔姆拉兹一起决定的——当《华尔街日报》刊登了一篇相关文章后,我们一直提供同步分发,也继续提供同步分发,但我们的确清退了那五家高频交易商,他们在获取信息的时间上没有任何优势。但无论如何我们清退了他们,但这并非基于任何和解协议。那是商业通讯社自己做的决定。

BUFFETTI have to correct that, Andrew. They've reached no settlement. They had decided — I had decided, along with (CEO) Cathy Baron Tamraz, when an article appeared in the Journal about it, we always provided simultaneous distribution, and we continued to provide simultaneous distribution, but we did get rid of the five highfrequency traders who had no edge in the time at which they received things. But we got rid of them, in any event, but that was not pursuant to any settlement. That was a decision that was made at Business Wire.

安德鲁很高兴你把这点澄清了。那和解部分又是什么?

ANDREWI'm glad you cleared that up. What was the settlement part, then?

巴菲特没有达成和解。没有和解。我们——我们这么做了——我记得《华尔街日报》在那一周的晚些时候登了一篇文章,凯茜在下周初跟我谈了这事儿。在确认他们完全同步派发刊物之后,我说我们不需要他们了。所以我们就甩掉了他们。

BUFFETTThere was no settlement. There was no settlement. We got — we made — I think there was an article late in the week in the Journal, and Cathy talked to me early the following week, and after assuring myself that they were getting totally simultaneous distribution, I said we don't need them. So we got rid of them.

贝基两位先生,我只问一个非常简短的问题——乔,你先来。

BECKYGentlemen, let me ask a very quick — go ahead, Joe.

查理·芒格我说了我喜欢。希望能更多一些。

MUNGERI said I love it. Wish there was more of it.

贝基我想快速问一下乌克兰局势。你们有花多少时间思考这件事?从地缘政治风险的角度看,我们应该有多担忧?

BECKYLet me ask you quickly about the situation in Ukraine. How much time do any of you spend thinking about that? How concerned should we be from a geopolitical risk standpoint?

芒格乌克兰的事我知道个鬼啊?我——我很高兴不用我来做那些决定。

MUNGERWhat in the hell do I know about the Ukraine? I — I'm glad I'm not making those decisions.

贝基你是否担心它会蔓延并影响企业——

BECKYDo you worry that it will spill over and affect business —

芒格当然,当你看到一种让你想起希特勒的模式时,你多少会有点担心。

MUNGERWell, of course you worry a little when you see a pattern that reminds you of Hitler.

贝基好的。

BECKYRight.

芒格但基本上,是的,我认为自己完全没有能力判断应该怎么做。

MUNGERBut basically, yeah, I regard myself as totally incompetent to judge what should be done.

贝基比尔,沃伦,你们俩谁想接着这个话题说说,觉得你们更有能力做这个决定?

BECKYBill, Warren, either of you want to follow up after that and say that you are more competent to make a decision on it?

巴菲特完全同意。这不难改进。

BUFFETTTotally. It's not hard to improve.

盖茨当存在全球经济时,国家之间产生争端——比如欧洲依赖俄罗斯天然气——有时候为了表明政治立场,你会选择承受经济上的痛。这确实是个大争论,你知道,该施加什么惩罚来阻止更多的吞并行为。实际上,商界有一套自己的观点,他们在和政客沟通。

GATESWhen you have a global economy, so when you have disputes between countries, like Europe's dependency on Russian gas, you sometimes will make — to make political points, you'll sometimes take economic pain, and it's a great debate, you know, what penalties should there be to discourage more take-over behavior. And you actually have the business community having one view and talking to the politicians.

我不觉得情况会变得很糟,但这肯定是目前最令人担忧的问题之一。

I don't think it's going to get terrible, but it certainly would be high on the list of concerns right now.

巴菲特一旦边界发生变化,就可能引发其他力量,而没人知道这些力量会是什么。还可能涉及政治民意的考量。各种事情都会开始发生。

BUFFETTWhen you get a shift in boundaries, it can set other forces in motion and nobody knows what those forces may be. And there may be political popularity considerations. All kinds of things start happening.

所以,一旦你把局面搅动起来,在国际事务上,你永远无法确定第二项、第三项、第四项会是什么。它们会按自己的逻辑演化。

So once you shake things up, you never can be sure, on international matters, what will be item 2, item 3, and item 4. They have their own dynamic.

所以这不是什么好事。也没人知道结果会怎样。但事情已经启动,能看到它平息下来总是好的。

So it's not a plus. And nobody knows how it's going to turn out. But something has been put in motion, and it would be nice to see it come to rest.

贝基我们稍后再继续这个话题。安德鲁。

BECKYWe'll continue this conversation in just a moment. Andrew.

安德鲁谢谢。沃伦,在商业资讯公司这件事上,我也要感谢你纠正了我的错误。我还注意到,有些相关报道写得很糟糕。尽管有些报道那么写,埃里克·施奈德曼是公开称赞了商业资讯公司及其做出这一决定的,这本来就不是和解协议或任何形式的协议的一部分。

ANDREWThank you. And, Warren, I want to thank you for correcting me on the Business Wire issue. I also noticed some of the reporting has been bad on this. Eric Schneiderman applauded Business Wire and their decision to do this. It wasn't part of the settlement or any type of accord. Despite some of that reporting.

接下来我们还会从奥马哈带来更多内容,沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格和比尔·盖茨都会登场。那种级别的对话可遇不可求。

Coming up we've got a lot more coming up from Omaha, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates. It doesn't get any better than that kind of conversation.

(广告时间。)

(Commercial break.)

贝基欢迎回来,各位。现在请沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格和比尔·盖茨分享一些最后的想法。三位,广告时段里你们一直在聊,我特别爱听。刚才你们在聊苹果和三星;苹果刚刚在一场诉讼中小胜,获赔 1.2 亿美元。我想知道你们对专利战怎么看。查理?

BECKYWelcome back, everybody. Some final thoughts right now from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Bill Gates. Gentlemen, in the commercial break I love your conversations that continue to go on. You were talking about Apple and Samsung; Apple just winning a minor court victory of $120 million to get paid. What I wonder is what you think of the patent wars. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我年轻那会儿,靠专利赚大钱的事情很少见,现在专利变得无比重要。我觉得现在专利批得太容易了。我不认为我们需要这么强的专利保护。比尔大概不会同意。

MUNGERWell, when I was young, there wasn't much money that changed hands based on patents, and now they're hugely important. I think patents are too easily granted now. I don't think we need as much patent protection as we have. Bill will probably disagree.

贝基·奎克专利局在跟上技术发展的步伐上一直很吃力。比尔,人们是不是应该为自己的创造和发明获得报酬?

BECKYThe patent office has had a hard time keeping up with technology. Bill, should people get paid for their creations and inventions?

比尔·盖茨嗯,有些行业,比如制药业,之所以能存在,完全是因为你发明了某样东西,就能获得一定的保护。这个体系的具体规则已经变得非常复杂,你可以讨论各种改进方案。但创新本身应该受到保护,你应该因此获得回报,这是一个极其成功的理念,可以一直追溯到蒸汽机时代。

GATESWell, there's entire industries like the drug industry that only exist because if you invent something you're allowed some protection. The particulars of the system have gotten very complex, and you could talk about various improvements. But the idea that innovation in and of itself should be protected, you should get paid. That's been a very successful idea going all the way back to the steam engine.

贝基·奎克比尔,我确实想问你一句——今天早上我们聊过,你已经不再是微软的最大股东了。你一直在减持微软的股份。这是为什么?

BECKYBill, I do want to ask you, we talked a little bit this morning about how you are no longer the largest shareholder of Microsoft. You've been selling down that stake. Why is that?

比尔·盖茨过去十多年,我每个季度都卖出相同数量的股票。这个计划会持续到今年年底。你知道,我会保留大量微软股票,但美国财政部因为这笔交易也获利颇丰,收进了好几十亿美元的税。而且,我现在对微软正做的事情感到很兴奋——重新审视所有战略,很多很棒的工作正在进行中。

GATESI've sold for over a decade the same number of shares every quarter. That plan lasts through the end of this year. You know, I'm going to retain a lot of Microsoft stock, but the U.S. Treasury's done well, many billions of dollars. And you know, I'm excited about the stuff I'm doing at Microsoft right now, you know, re-examining all its strategies, and a lot of great work going on.

贝基·奎克你对新 CEO 萨提亚·纳德拉感到兴奋吗?

BECKYAre you excited about the new CEO, Satya Nadella?

比尔·盖茨是的,萨提亚开局相当惊艳。他正在公司里广泛地调动人才,让大家重新思考微软怎样才能动作更快一点,并凭借 Office 365 这类东西切实地拉开与对手的差距。

GATESYeah, Satya is off to an amazing start. He's drawing on a broad set of people in the company to get them to rethink how can Microsoft move a bit faster and really distinguish ourselves with things like Office 365.

贝基·奎克我想问问你们关于能源政策的看法。查理,我又回到这个话题,是因为你在之前的股东大会——可能是两三年以前——说过一些话,可以说改变了我的想法,就是关于我们该不该出口天然气和一些自然资源的问题。你的观点是,我们应该把它们全都封存起来。

BECKYLet me ask you all about energy policy. I come back to this, Charlie, because you've said some things in previous meetings - maybe it was two or three years ago - that kind of changed my thinking about it, just the idea of whether or not we should be exporting natural gas and some of our natural resources. Your idea was that we should save it all.

查理·芒格是啊,我完全反对出口天然气。我也不喜欢把石油拿出去卖。我完全赞成放慢石油的消耗速度,也放慢勘探的速度。在这件事情上,我完全孤立无援。我觉得非常孤独。

MUNGERYeah, I'm totally against exporting natural gas. I don't like oil to be exported, either. I'm all for using up our oil more slowly and discovering it more slowly. I'm all by myself on this. I feel very lonely.

贝基为什么你认为我们不应该出口它?

BECKYWhy is it that you think we shouldn't export it?

芒格我认为这东西极其珍贵。感觉就像艾奥瓦州的表层土壤。我们不想让它流失得太快。我还有一些老派的资本主义观念——聪明、有责任感的人总是在承受当下的苦,让未来变得更好。我不喜欢靠让以后更糟来把今天搞得红红火火。

MUNGERI think this stuff is utterly precious. I feel it's like the topsoil of Iowa. We don't want it to go away too fast. I also have oldfashioned capitalist ideas that intelligent, responsible people are always suffering now to make later better. I don't like making today great by making later worse.

贝基沃伦,你同意查理的说法吗?

BECKYWarren, you agree with Charlie?

巴菲特嗯,如果让我分管未来 500 年的美国运营,我希望拥有一种在任何情况下都能保障国防的能源生产能力。因为在这方面,我不想依赖世界其他国家。

BUFFETTWell, if I were in charge of running the United States for the next 500 years, I would want the ability to produce energy in a way that would take care of national defense under all circumstances. Because I would not want to be dependent on the rest of the world in that respect.

但如果除了这一点,我可以把这个星球上一种跟能源同样重要的资源用光,而且是先用别人的——如前所说——如果我肩负的责任是成百上千年,我会先用别人的,拿一些小纸片跟他换。但我始终希望拥有与时俱进的国防能力。

But if otherwise I could use up, you know, as important an item to the planet as energy and use the other guy's, and like I said, if I have responsibility for hundreds and hundreds of years, I would use the other guy's and trade him little pieces of paper for it. But I would always want to have an up-to-date national defense.

芒格三亿人里,也就我们两个这么想。

MUNGERThat's two of us, out of 300 million.

贝基我想问三位一个问题。你们三位都是花大量时间进行思考的投资人。我想知道,

BECKYLet me ask all three of you. All three of you are investors that spend a lot of time thinking about things. I wonder, with the

在股市连创新高的情况下,你们三位是否对此感到担心,在这个价位上东西是不是开始显得贵了?比尔,你怎么看?

stock market hitting new highs, if that concerns any of the three of you, if things are starting to look expensive at these levels. Bill, what do you think?

盖茨嗯,相对于利率来说,股票仍然相当便宜。而且,你知道,在这个市场上做任何类型的投资者,你确实都得对利率有自己的看法。这是一个极其关键的因素。从历史衡量标准来看,没错,在大部分时期里利率水平都很不一样。

GATESWell, relative to interest rates, equities are still a bargain. And, you know, so you've really got to have an opinion about interest rates to be an investor of any kind in this market. It's such a key factor. You know, by historical measures, yes, interest rates were very different in most of those time periods.

贝基今年利率一直这么低,你感到意外吗?

BECKYHave you been surprised that interest rates have stayed so low this year?

盖茨嗯,各国央行正在确保这一点。他们在尽力推动这些经济体的增长。需要他们把油门踩到底到这种程度,这件事本身就相当惊人,甚至有点吓人。

GATESWell, the central banks are making sure that's the case. They are trying to stimulate these economies as best they can. The fact that it requires the gas pedal being pushed to the floor as much as it does is an amazing and even a little bit scary thing.

贝基查理,你怎么看?

BECKYCharlie, what do you think?

芒格嗯,我认为在比尔·格罗斯所说的“新常态”下,普通股未来的表现可能不会像过去 100 年那么好。但这并不意味着芒格家的人会卖掉他们手里的普通股,试图以后用更便宜的价格再买回来。

MUNGERWell, I think under what Bill Gross calls the "new normal," common stocks may not do quite as well in the future as they did in the last 100 years. But that doesn't mean that the Mungers are going to sell their common stock in an effort to buy them back later cheaper.

贝基沃伦,你呢?

BECKYWarren, how about you?

巴菲特这么说吧,你的选择是要么持有股票,要么持有固定收益的美元资产。我认为你该持有股票,这一点很明显。我不觉得现在股市到了疯狂的地步。在我的一生中,大部分时间股票都处于合理区间。我觉得现在它们也处在合理区间。当然,如果你非得让我二选一:做多 30 年期国债并做空指数基金 30 年,或者反过来,那我肯定选择做多指数基金。我会做多股票。

BUFFETTWell, the option is to own equities or own fixed dollars. I think it's clear you own equities. I do not think they're in crazy territory. But most of the time stocks have been in a zone of reasonableness over my lifetime. I think they're in the zone of reasonableness now. And certainly if you said to me it's either going to have to be long the 30-year bond and short an index fund for 30 years or vice versa, it would be long index fund. I would be long in stocks.

芒格我们都会。

MUNGERWe all would.

贝基先生们,感谢各位今天抽出时间接受我们的采访,我们十分感谢。我们的采访就到这里。请记得明天继续收看我们的节目。现在把时间交给《Squawk on the Street》。

BECKYGentlemen, I want to thank you all for your time today. We really appreciate it. That does it for us. Make sure you join us tomorrow. Right now it's time for Squawk on the Street.