2014 年 10 月 CNBC 专访
CNBC 访谈实录：传奇投资人沃伦·巴菲特发表评论。10 月 5 日（周日）22 小时前，在全国联播节目“On the Money”中，与 CNBC 的贝基·奎克开启讨论。
CNBC Transcript: Legendary Investor Warren Buffett Speaks COMMENTS Start the Discussion with CNBC's Becky Quick on the Nationally Syndicated "On the Money" Sunday, October 5th 22 Hours Ago
时间10 月 5 日，星期日
WHENSunday, October 5th
地点“On the Money”栏目
WHERE"On the Money"
以下是亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特接受 CNBC 的贝基·奎克在全国联播节目“On the Money”中采访的非官方实录。完整采访将于美国东部时间 10 月 5 日（周日）晚上 7:30 在 CNBC 播出。请查看您当地的播出时间表。
Following is the unofficial transcript of an interview with Billionaire investor Warren Buffett and CNBC's Becky Quick on the nationally syndicated "On the Money." The full interview will air on CNBC this Sunday, October 5th at 7:30pm ET. Check your local listings.
所有引用必须标注来源为“On the Money”。
All references must be sourced to "On the Money."
贝基·奎克他就是许多人称为美国最伟大投资者的人。一位先知，沃伦·巴菲特现在就在我们现场。沃伦，非常感谢你今天来我们节目。
BECKY QUICKHE'S THE MAN THAT MANY CALL AMERICA'S GREATEST INVESTOR. AN ORACLE, WARREN BUFFETT IS HERE RIGHT ON SET WITH US AND WARREN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US TODAY.
沃伦·巴菲特很高兴来到这里。
WARREN BUFFETTFUN TO BE HERE.
贝基·奎克今天我们请到您坐在这里，有不少在家收看股市节目的人，看到最近市场下跌，心里很紧张，开始怀疑行情是不是要见顶了。您有什么建议给那些坐在家里的人？
QUICKSO WHEN WE HAVE YOU HERE, WE HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE AT HOME WATCHING THE STOCK MARKET WHO HAVE GOTTEN VERY NERVOUS BY SOME OF THE DIPS THAT THEY HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. PEOPLE STARTING TO WONDER IF THINGS ARE TOPPING OUT. WHAT ADVICE WOULD YOU GIVE TO THOSE PEOPLE WHO ARE SITTING AT HOME?
巴菲特嗯，我不知道股市明天、下周、下个月或明年会怎样。但我知道，十年后它一定会更高。如果你把自己的股票当作投资来持有，就像你拥有一栋公寓楼、一个农场或任何其他资产一样，把它们看作生意。你手里持有的是一批美国企业，如果你打算持有它们十年，你一定会做得很好。但如果你试图根据新闻，或邻居告诉你什么来买卖它们，那你可能不会有好结果。所以，找到一批好企业，然后一直拿着。
BUFFETTWELL I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE STOCK MARKET IS GOING TO DO TOMORROW, OR NEXT WEEK, OR NEXT MONTH, OR NEXT YEAR. I DO KNOW IT IS GOING TO BE HIGHER TEN YEARS FROM NOW. AND IF YOU OWN YOUR STOCKS AS AN INVESTMENT, JUST LIKE YOU WOULD OWN AN APARTMENT HOUSE OR A FARM OR ANYTHING, LOOK AT THEM AS A BUSINESS. AND YOU HAVE A GROUP OF AMERICAN BUSINESSES AND YOU ARE GOING TO OWN THEM FOR TEN YEARS, YOU'RE GOING TO DO FINE. AND IF YOU ARE GOING TO TRY AND BUY AND SELL THEM BASED ON NEWS OR YOU KNOW, SOMETHING YOUR NEIGHBOR TELLS YOU OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT, YOU'RE PROBABLY NOT GOING TO DO WELL. SO FIND A GOOD BUNCH OF BUSINESSES AND HOLD THEM.
贝基·奎克而这正是您几十年来一直在做的事情，并且取得了丰厚回报。
QUICKAND THAT IS WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN DOING FOR DECADES AND DECADES, AND IT HAS PAID OFF.
巴菲特这活儿我干了一辈子，没错。你要是天天或每周买卖股票，赚不到钱。
BUFFETTI'VE BEEN DOING IT ALL MY LIFE, YEAH. AND YOU WILL NOT MAKE MONEY TRYING TO BUY AND SELL STOCKS DAILY OR WEEKLY.
贝基·奎克你可能无法确切知道明天市场会发生什么，但你确实有相当不错的把握。
QUICKYOU MAY NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE MARKET TOMORROW, BUT YOU DO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
关于经济走势的看法。你可以通过我们旗下所有公司了解这一点。
IDEA ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY. YOU KNOW THAT THROUGH ALL OF THE COMPANIES.
巴菲特当然。
BUFFETTSURE.
贝基·奎克从伯灵顿北方（这家公司能很好地反映经济状况）到你持有很多股份的美国运通这样的公司，你认为我们的经济会走向何方？
QUICKFROM BURLINGTON NORTHERN, WHICH IS A VERY GOOD READ ON THE ECONOMY, TO A COMPANY LIKE AMERICAN EXPRESS THAT YOU HOLD A BIG STAKE IN. WHERE DO YOU THINK WE ARE HEADED?
巴菲特嗯，自从 2009 年秋天到现在，五年了，经济一直以相当稳定的速度在增长。人们时不时地会对它变得更兴奋或更沮丧。他们谈论二次探底这类我们听过的说法，但它确实一直在稳步增长。既没有大幅度加速，也没有大幅度减速。我们现在看到的，跟五年来看到的一模一样：增长，但速度不会让人激动不已——我觉得一年后我们还会看到这个局面。
BUFFETTWELL THE ECONOMY, SINCE THE FALL OF 2009, THAT'S FIVE YEARS NOW, HAS BEEN INCREASING AT A PRETTY STEADY RATE. PEOPLE HAVE GOTTEN - PERIODICALLY THEY GOT MORE ENTHUSED OR MORE DEPRESSED ABOUT IT. THEY TALK ABOUT DOUBLE DIPS, AND ALL THESE SORTS OF THINGS WE'VE HEARD, BUT IT HAS BEEN A PRETTY STEADY INCREASE. IT DOESN'T ACCELERATE A LOT, IT DOESN'T DECELERATE A LOT. AND WHAT WE SEE NOW IS EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING FOR FIVE YEARS. AN INCREASE NOT A RATE THAT GETS PEOPLE ALL EXCITED, BUT - AND I THINK WE WILL BE SEEING THAT A YEAR FROM NOW.
贝基·奎克从我们近期看到的一些公司动态来看，你大笔持股的公司传出了消息。可口可乐本周表示将调整高管薪酬方案，在股票和现金的支付比例上做出改变。你曾支持修改这一计划。你怎么看他们推出的方案？
QUICKIN TERMS OF WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FROM SOME OF THE COMPANIES, SOME NEWS OUT OF THE COMPANIES THAT YOU OWN BIG STAKES IN, COCACOLA THIS WEEK SAID THAT IT WOULD BE CHANGING THE PACKAGE THAT IT PAYS ITS EXECUTIVES IN TERMS OF HOW THEY BREAK UP AND PAY THEM IN STOCK OR NOT SO MUCH IN STOCK. YOU WERE SOMEONE WHO WAS A PROPONENT OF CHANGING THAT PLAN. WHAT DO YOU THINK OF WHAT THEY HAVE PUT OUT?
巴菲特我认为，薪酬委员会与董事会共同制定了一个非常、非常合理的方案，大幅减少了股票发行，更多采用现金支付——两种形式都与绩效挂钩——我觉得这是个非常合乎逻辑的方案。相比薪酬委员会没有采取这一行动，股东们的境况要好得多。所以，我向他们脱帽致敬。
BUFFETTI THINK THAT THE COMPENSATION COMMITTEE WORKING WITH THE BOARD HAS CRAFTED A VERY, VERY SENSIBLE PLAN THAT INVOLVES FAR LESS ISSUANCE OF STOCK, MORE PAYMENT IN CASH - PERFORMANCE RELATED IN BOTH CASES - AND I THINK IT IS A VERY LOGICAL PLAN AND I THINK THE STOCKHOLDERS ARE CONSIDERABLY BETTER OFF THEN THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN IF THE COMP COMMITTEE HADN'T DONE WHAT THEY DID. SO, I TIP MY HAT TO THEM.
贝基·奎克沃伦，过去几年你收购了大约 28 家地区性报纸。很多人觉得这笔投资简直莫名其妙，这行业明明在萎缩。这些投资给你带来怎样的回报，你又看到了什么？
QUICKWARREN, OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS, YOU'VE BOUGHT UP ABOUT 28 REGIONAL NEWSPAPERS. THAT'S AN INVESTMENT THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE THOUGHT WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON THERE? THAT'S A SHRINKING INDUSTRY. HOW HAVE THOSE INVESTMENTS PAID OFF FOR YOU AND WHAT DO YOU SEE?
巴菲特嗯，这些投资结果还行，但那些人的判断完全正确。这是一个在萎缩的行业。五年后，这些报纸赚的钱会比现在少。但我们买入的价格已经把这个因素考虑进去了。所以，它们会成为令人满意的投资。不过，报纸不是那种利润会增长的行业。利润会下降，而且随着时间的推移，很多报纸会消失。这是毫无疑问的。
BUFFETTWELL THEY WORKED OUT OK, BUT THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. IT IS A SHRINKING INDUSTRY. AND THOSE PAPERS WILL EARN LESS MONEY FIVE YEARS FROM NOW THEN THEY EARN NOW. BUT WE BOUGHT THEM AT A PRICE WHERE WE'VE FACTORED THAT IN. SO THEY WILL BE A SATISFACTORY INVESTMENT. BUT, NEWSPAPERS ARE NOT A PLACE WHERE EARNINGS ARE GOING TO INCREASE. THEY ARE GOING TO DECREASE AND A LOT OF PAPERS ARE GOING TO DISAPPEAR OVER TIME. THERE IS NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT.
贝基·奎克所以，你不会说这是一项人人都能做的投资吧？你得精挑细选。
QUICKSO YOU WOULDN'T NECESSARILY SAY THAT IS AN INVESTMENT FOR EVERYONE? YOU HAVE TO PICK YOUR PLACES.
巴菲特哦，不，我认为这对几乎任何人都算不上投资。你必须以极低、极低、极低的价格买入才行。
BUFFETTOH, NO I DON'T THINK THAT IS AN INVESTMENT FOR HARDLY ANYONE. YOU'VE GOT TO BUY THEM VERY, VERY, VERY CHEAP.
贝基·奎克沃伦，今年早些时候，伯克希尔·哈撒韦被人权运动组织列为全美最差公司之一，称如果你是女同性恋、男同性恋、双性恋或跨性别者，伯克希尔是最不适合工作的公司之一。他们说你们没有保护员工的政策，未能营造安全的工作环境。你对此如何回应？
QUICKWARREN, EARLIER THIS YEAR, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY WAS LISTED AS ONE OF THE WORST COMPANIES IN THE COUNTRY, BROUGHT BY THE HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN, SAYING IT IS ONE OF THE WORST PLACES TO WORK IF YOU ARE LESBIAN, GAY, BISEXUAL OR TRANSGENDER. THEY SAID THAT YOU DON'T HAVE POLICIES THAT PROTECT EMPLOYEES AND MAKE IT A SAFE PLACE FOR THEM TO WORK. WHAT WOULD YOU - HOW WOULD YOU RESPOND TO THAT?
巴菲特嗯，我想，大概的情况是，我们总收到各种各样的调查——关于男女员工、种种名目，你能想到的都有——我们基本上都不回复。我们有 75 家子公司在各自运营，员工总数 30 多万，总部只有 25 名员工。我们不可能每次收到问卷，就让 75 家子公司花大量精力去跟进。我想说的是，我们的经理们当然知道我的立场——我百分之百支持男女同性恋者在各方面享有完整权利。但我不会去为这 75 家公司制定政策。我知道其中几家大公司的政策，我认为它们相当进步。但我看到在某些调查中我们得了零分，原因就是我们没回复调查。
BUFFETTWELL I GUESS, PROBABLY WHAT HAPPENED IS WE GET SURVEYS ALL THE TIME ON ALL - MEN AND WOMEN - YOU KNOW, I MEAN YOU NAME IT, ALL DIFFERENT KINDS OF THINGS AND WE BASICALLY DON'T ANSWER THEM. WE HAVE 75 SUBSIDIARIES OUT THERE RUNNING THEIR BUSINESSES. 300 AND SOME THOUSAND EMPLOYEES AND WE'VE GOT 25 PEOPLE IN OUR HEADQUARTERS AND WE DO NOT, EVERY TIME WE GET A QUESTIONNAIRE, GO OUT TO 75 AND HAVE THEM GO THROUGH A LOT OF WORK TO FOLLOW UP. I WOULD SAY THIS, CERTAINLY OUR MANAGERS KNOW HOW I FEEL AND I'M 100 PERCENT FOR FULL RIGHTS IN EVERY RESPECT FOR GAY AND LESBIANS. BUT I DO NOT SET THE POLICIES FOR THE 75 COMPANIES. I KNOW WHAT THEY ARE - A FEW OF THE LARGER ONES, AND I THINK THEY ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, BUT THAT'S - I WOULD SAY THAT I'VE SEEN IT LISTED AS ZERO ON CERTAIN SURVEYS AND THE REASON WHY IS THAT WE DIDN'T ANSWER THE SURVEY.
贝基·奎克本周你还为伯克希尔·哈撒韦增添了一家新公司。你总是在寻觅，总在寻找下一笔交易。这次，你买下了范图尔汽车集团（Van Tuyl Auto Group）。是什么吸引了你？
QUICKAND THIS WEEK YOU ALSO ADDED A NEW COMPANY TO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY. YOU ARE ALWAYS ON THE PROWL, ALWAYS LOOKING FOR A NEW DEAL. THIS TIME AROUND, YOU BOUGHT VAN TUYL AUTO GROUP. WHAT LURED YOU?
巴菲特嗯，拉里·范图伊尔六七年前找过我。我了解这个行业，总体而言觉得是个不错的生意，而且拉里的经营方式堪称卓越。他在 78 家经销店有合伙人，所以他以合伙模式运作，多年来业绩非常出色。而且，你知道，我们会持有这笔投资 100 年。这确实很适合伯克希尔——这是那种我们能够大举扩张的生意，因为全国有 1.7 万家经销商，而我们通过这种方式买下了其中 78 家。所以我们会得到大量扩张这项业务的机会。这对伯克希尔来说会是一笔大生意。
BUFFETTWELL, LARRY VAN TUYL TALKED TO ME SIX OR SEVEN YEARS AGO. I UNDERSTAND THE BUSINESS AND I THINK THAT IT IS A DECENT BUSINESS OVERALL AND I THINK THE WAY LARRY RUNS IT IS EXTRAORDINARY. HE HAS THESE PARTNERS IN 78 DEALERSHIPS AND SO HE WORKS ON A PARTNER BASIS, HE'S GOT A TERRIFIC RECORD OVER THE YEARS, AND YOU KNOW, IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE WILL OWN FOR 100 YEARS. IT REALLY FITS BERKSHIRE - IT'S THE KIND OF BUSINESS WE CAN EXPAND A LOT BECAUSE THERE ARE 17,000 DEALERS IN THE COUNTRY AND WE ARE BUYING 78 OF THEM THROUGH THIS MEANS. SO WE WILL GET A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND THIS BUSINESS. THIS WILL BE A BIG BUSINESS FOR BERKSHIRE.
贝基·奎克好的。沃伦，非常感谢你今天抽空出席。
QUICKALRIGHT. WARREN, WANT TO THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.
巴菲特感谢邀请我。
BUFFETTTHANKS FOR HAVING ME.