1998 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 11180 词
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董事长致股东的信——1998 年

Chairman's Letter - 1998

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. :

1998 年,我们的净资产增加了 259 亿美元,A 股和 B 股的每股账面价值因此各增长了 48.3%。过去 34 年间(即自现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增长到 37,801 美元,年复合增长率为 24.7%。*

Our gain in net worth during 1998 was $25.9 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 48.3%. Over the last 34 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $37,801, a rate of 24.7% compounded annually. *

  • 本报告使用的所有数字,均针对伯克希尔的 A 股,它是公司 1996 年以前唯一流通在外的股票的继受股份。B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的 1/30。
  • All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire's A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.

按理说,48.3% 的涨幅本该让人翻着跟头庆祝——但今年不是。还记得瓦格纳吗?有人评价说,他的音乐比实际上听上去要好。伯克希尔 1998 年的进展也是如此:尽管相当令人满意,却不像表面看去那样出色。这是因为,这 48.3% 的涨幅,大部分来自我们为收购而增发的股票。

Normally, a gain of 48.3% would call for handsprings -- but not this year. Remember Wagner, whose music has been described as better than it sounds? Well, Berkshire's progress in 1998 -- though more than satisfactory -- was not as good as it looks. That's because most of that 48.3% gain came from our issuing shares in acquisitions.

容我解释一下:我们的股票交易价远高于每股账面价值,这意味着,只要我们增发股票——无论是为换取现金,还是作为并购对价——每股账面价值都会立刻上升,哪怕我们一分钱也没多赚。道理在于,在这类交易中,我们得到的每股账面价值多于我们付出的。然而,它们不会给我们带来任何即刻的每股内在价值增长,因为在这方面,我们付出的和得到的大体相当。查理·芒格(伯克希尔副董事长,也是我的合伙人)和我再怎么反复强调也不为过——尽管你或许觉得我们说得够多了——真正要紧的是每股内在价值的增长,而非每股账面价值的增长。1998 年,伯克希尔的内在价值增长极为可观,但增幅远不及账面价值的 48.3%。即便如此,内在价值仍远超账面价值。(关于这些术语以及其他投资与会计概念的更详尽讨论,请参阅第 56–64 页的《所有者手册》,我们在其中阐述了与所有者相关的经营原则;内在价值一节见第 61 和 62 页。)

To explain: Our stock sells at a large premium over book value, which means that any issuing of shares we do -- whether for cash or as consideration in a merger -- instantly increases our per-share book-value figure, even though we've earned not a dime. What happens is that we get more per-share book value in such transactions than we give up. These transactions, however, do not deliver us any immediate gain in per-share intrinsic value , because in this respect what we give and what we get are roughly equal. And, as Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman and my partner, and I can't tell you too often (though you may feel that we try), it's the per-share gain in intrinsic value that counts rather than the per-share gain in book value. Though Berkshire's intrinsic value grew very substantially in 1998, the gain fell well short of the 48.3% recorded for book value. Nevertheless, intrinsic value still far exceeds book value. (For a more extensive discussion of these terms, and other investment and accounting concepts, please refer to our Owner's Manual, on pages 56-64, in which we set forth our owner-related business principles. Intrinsic value is discussed on pages 61 and 62.)

进入 1999 年时,我们拥有公司史上最出色的一批企业和经理人。我们在 1998 年收购的两家公司——通用再保险和 Executive Jet 航空(Executive Jet)——各方面都堪称一流(这两家稍后详述),旗下运营企业去年的业绩也超出了我的期望。GEICO 再一次一鸣惊人。不利的一面是,我们重仓持有的几家上市公司,出现了相当严重的经营下滑,这是它们也好,我也好,在年初都没能预料到的。结果,我们的股票组合表现远逊于标普 500 指数。这些公司的问题几乎肯定是暂时的,查理和我相信,它们的长期前景十分光明。

We entered 1999 with the best collection of businesses and managers in our history. The two companies we acquired in 1998, General Re and Executive Jet, are first-class in every way -- more about both later -- and the performance of our operating businesses last year exceeded my hopes. GEICO, once again, simply shot the lights out. On the minus side, several of the public companies in which we have major investments experienced significant operating shortfalls that neither they nor I anticipated early in the year. Consequently, our equity portfolio did not perform nearly as well as did the S&P 500. The problems of these companies are almost certainly temporary, and Charlie and I believe that their long-term prospects are excellent.

过去三份年报里,我们都附上了一张我们视为估算伯克希尔内在价值之核心的表格。下面是更新后的版本,我们在此追踪价值的两个关键构成,其中通用再保险按备考口径列示,即假设我们全年都持有该公司。第一列列出我们每股持有的投资(含现金及等价物,但不含金融产品业务持有的证券),第二列列出伯克希尔各项经营业务在税前、且在购买法会计调整(见第 62、63 页)之前,但已扣除全部利息和公司费用后的每股收益。第二列不含我们从第一列所列投资中获得的股息、利息和已实现资本利得。实际上,这两列描摹的是伯克希尔一分为二后的样子:一个实体持有我们的投资,另一个运营全部业务并承担所有公司成本。

In our last three annual reports, we furnished you a table that we regard as central to estimating Berkshire's intrinsic value. In the updated version of that table, which follows, we trace our two key components of value, including General Re on a pro-forma basis as if we had owned it throughout the year. The first column lists our per-share ownership of investments (including cash and equivalents but excluding securities held in our financial products operation) and the second column shows our per-share earnings from Berkshire's operating businesses before taxes and purchase-accounting adjustments (discussed on pages 62 and 63), but after all interest and corporate expenses. The second column excludes all dividends, interest and capital gains that we realized from the investments presented in the first column. In effect, the columns show how Berkshire would look if it were split into two parts, with one entity holding our investments and the other operating all of our businesses and bearing all corporate costs.

投资

Investments

每股

Per Share

税前每股收益

Pre-tax Earnings Per Share

且不含来自

With All Income from

投资的全部收益

Investments Excluded

年份

Year

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

1968
$ 53
$ 2.87
1978
465
12.85
1988
4,876
145.77
1998
47,647
474.45
1968
$ 53
$ 2.87
1978
465
12.85
1988
4,876
145.77
1998
47,647
474.45

以下是这两个分部按十年划分的增长率:

Here are the growth rates of the two segments by decade:

每股投资额

Investments Per Share

扣除所有投资收入后的每股税前收益

Pre-tax Earnings Per Share With All Income from Investments Excluded

十年截止于

Decade Ending

1978
24.2%
16.2%
1988
26.5%
27.5%
1998
25.6%
12.5%
1978
24.2%
16.2%
1988
26.5%
27.5%
1998
25.6%
12.5%

1968—1998 年年增长率

Annual Growth Rate, 1968-1998 ...................

25.4%
18.6%
25.4%
18.6%

1998 年,我们的每股投资增加了 9,604 美元,增幅 25.2%,而每股经营利润却下降了 33.9%。这两件事都可由通用再保险(如前所述,按备考口径纳入)来解释。这家公司持有规模庞大的投资,大幅抬高了我们的每股投资数字;但它 1998 年也出现了承保亏损,拖累了经营利润。倘若没有收购通用再保险,每股经营利润本会小幅增长。

During 1998, our investments increased by $9,604 per share, or 25.2%, but per-share operating earnings fell by 33.9%. General Re (included, as noted, on a pro-forma basis) explains both facts. This company has very large investments, and these greatly increased our per-share investment figure. But General Re also had an underwriting loss in 1998, and that hurt operating earnings. Had we not acquired General Re, per-share operating earnings would have shown a modest gain.

尽管某些收购和运营策略有时会对其中一列贡献更多,但我们始终致力于同时做大这两列的数字。不过有一点是肯定的:我们未来的增长率将远逊于过去。伯克希尔的资本基数如今实在太大,已容不下真正超额的回报。你若不信,那就该去做销售,可千万别碰数学(别忘了,世上其实只有三种人:会数数的,和不会数数的)。

Though certain of our acquisitions and operating strategies may from time to time affect one column more than the other, we continually work to increase the figures in both. But one thing is certain: Our future rates of gain will fall far short of those achieved in the past. Berkshire's capital base is now simply too large to allow us to earn truly outsized returns. If you believe otherwise, you should consider a career in sales but avoid one in mathematics (bearing in mind that there are really only three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't).

眼下我们要为 574 亿美元的净资产谋求复利增长,这是全美所有公司中最大的一笔(不过,如果埃克森与美孚合并,我们的数字就会被超过)。当然,净资产领先,并不意味着伯克希尔的价值就高过其他所有企业:对股东而言,市值才算数——比如通用电气和微软,估值就是伯克希尔的三倍多。但净资产衡量的是经营者必须去配置的资本,而在伯克希尔,这个数字确实已变得极为庞大。

Currently we are working to compound a net worth of $57.4 billion, the largest of any American corporation (though our figure will be eclipsed if the merger of Exxon and Mobil takes place). Of course, our lead in net worth does not mean that Berkshire outranks all other businesses in value: Market value is what counts for owners and General Electric and Microsoft, for example, have valuations more than three times Berkshire's. Net worth, though, measures the capital that managers must deploy, and at Berkshire that figure has indeed become huge.

即便如此,查理和我仍会竭尽全力,让内在价值今后以年均 15% 的速度增长——我们认为,这个结果已是可能结局中的天花板。有些年份我们或许能超过 15%,但也必定有些年份远远达不到,包括出现负收益的年份,这些都会拉低平均值。同时你应当明白,未来五年年均 15% 的增长意味着什么:它意味着我们得把净资产增加 580 亿美元。要挣到这令人生畏的 15%,我们就得拿出大手笔——摆爆米花摊子可不顶用。当下的市场对我们搜寻“大象”并不友好,但请放心,我们会始终盯紧猎物。

Nonetheless, Charlie and I will do our best to increase intrinsic value in the future at an average rate of 15%, a result we consider to be at the very peak of possible outcomes. We may have years when we exceed 15%, but we will most certainly have other years when we fall far short of that -- including years showing negative returns -- and those will bring our average down. In the meantime, you should understand just what an average gain of 15% over the next five years implies: It means we will need to increase net worth by $58 billion. Earning this daunting 15% will require us to come up with big ideas: Popcorn stands just won't do. Today's markets are not friendly to our search for "elephants," but you can be sure that we will stay focused on the hunt.

不管未来如何,我向你许下一个承诺:只要我还在世,就会把至少 99% 的身家留在伯克希尔。这会有多久?我的榜样是韦恩堡那位忠诚的民主党人,他要求死后葬在芝加哥,好继续在党内活动。为此,我已在办公室为我的骨灰盒挑好了一处“风水宝地”。

Whatever the future holds, I make you one promise: I'll keep at least 99% of my net worth in Berkshire for as long as I am around. How long will that be? My model is the loyal Democrat in Fort Wayne who asked to be buried in Chicago so that he could stay active in the party. To that end, I've already selected a "power spot" at the office for my urn.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

我们的财务增长,与员工增长同步:如今我们有 47,566 名员工,其中 1998 年的收购带来 7,074 人,内部增长又添了 2,500 人。为平衡这 9,500 名一线员工的增加,我们把全球总部的人手从 12 人扩充到了 12.8 人。(那 0.8 指的不是我或查理:我们新招了一位会计,每周上四天班。)尽管公司出现了这种令人忧心的膨胀势头,去年的税后管理费用也不过约 350 万美元,远不到我们所管资产价值的一个基点(0.01%)。

Our financial growth has been matched by employment growth: We now have 47,566 on our payroll, with the acquisitions of 1998 bringing 7,074 employees to us and internal growth adding another 2,500. To balance this gain of 9,500 in hands-on employees, we have enlarged the staff at world headquarters from 12 to 12.8. (The .8 doesn't refer to me or Charlie: We have a new person in accounting, working four days a week.) Despite this alarming trend toward corporate bloat, our after-tax overhead last year was about $3.5 million, or well under one basis point (.01 of 1%) of the value of the assets we manage.

税收

Taxes

我们规模扩大,受益者之一是美国财政部。伯克希尔与通用再保险就 1998 年收益已缴纳或即将缴纳的联邦所得税,合计达 27 亿美元。这意味着,光我们两家,就担下了美国政府半天多的全部开支。

One beneficiary of our increased size has been the U.S. Treasury. The federal income taxes that Berkshire and General Re have paid, or will soon pay, in respect to 1998 earnings total $2.7 billion. That means we shouldered all of the U.S. Government's expenses for more than a half-day.

再往下想一步:去年,只要另有 625 名美国纳税人像我们和通用再保险缴得一样多,那么其余所有人——无论是企业,还是 2.7 亿国民——就都不必再缴联邦所得税或任何别的联邦税(比如社保税或遗产税)了。我们的股东确实可以说,他们“在公司这儿就把该尽的心意尽了”。

Follow that thought a little further: If only 625 other U.S. taxpayers had paid the Treasury as much as we and General Re did last year, no one else -- neither corporations nor 270 million citizens -- would have had to pay federal income taxes or any other kind of federal tax (for example, social security or estate taxes). Our shareholders can truly say that they "gave at the office."

给美国国税局(IRS)开出带一串零的支票,这事查理和我都不介意。伯克希尔作为公司,我们作为个人,在美国获得的成就,换到别的任何国家都无从谈起。说实话,即便我们生活在世界别处、彻底不用交税,我也断定财务上(乃至其他许多方面)只会更糟。总的来说,我们感到无比幸运,命运发给我们的这手牌,让我们能给政府开出大额支票,而不是反过来需要政府定期给我们开支票——比方说,因为我们残障或失业。

Writing checks to the IRS that include strings of zeros does not bother Charlie or me. Berkshire as a corporation, and we as individuals, have prospered in America as we would have in no other country. Indeed, if we lived in some other part of the world and completely escaped taxes, I'm sure we would be worse off financially (and in many other ways as well). Overall, we feel extraordinarily lucky to have been dealt a hand in life that enables us to write large checks to the government rather than one requiring the government to regularly write checks to us -- say, because we are disabled or unemployed.

伯克希尔的税务状况有时会被人误解。首先,资本利得对我们并无特殊吸引力:无论应税收入来自资本利得还是日常经营,公司都按 35% 的税率纳税。这意味着,伯克希尔为一笔长期资本利得缴纳的税,整整比个人为同样一笔利得缴纳的高出 75%。

Berkshire's tax situation is sometimes misunderstood. First, capital gains have no special attraction for us: A corporation pays a 35% rate on taxable income, whether it comes from capital gains or from ordinary operations. This means that Berkshire's tax on a long-term capital gain is fully 75% higher than what an individual would pay on an identical gain.

有些人还抱着另一种误解,以为我们收到的股息可以按 70% 从应税收入中扣除。没错,70% 的扣除率确实适用于大多数公司,也适用于伯克希尔持有非保险子公司股票的情形。但我们几乎所有的股权投资都由保险公司持有,这种情况下扣除率只有 59.5%。这仍然说明,对我们而言,一美元股息远比一美元普通收入值钱,只是没有人们常以为的那么多。

Some people harbor another misconception, believing that we can exclude 70% of all dividends we receive from our taxable income. Indeed, the 70% rate applies to most corporations and also applies to Berkshire in cases where we hold stocks in non-insurance subsidiaries. However, almost all of our equity investments are owned by our insurance companies, and in that case the exclusion is 59.5%. That still means a dollar of dividends is considerably more valuable to us than a dollar of ordinary income, but not to the degree often assumed.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

去年,伯克希尔实实在在为财政部拼尽了全力。在通用再保险的并购中,我们向政府开出一张 3,000 万美元的支票,用以缴纳与交易新增股份相关的 SEC 费用。据我们所知,这笔付款创下了 SEC 的纪录。查理和我对证监会为美国投资者所做的一切极为敬佩。只不过,我们宁愿换一种方式来表达这份敬意。

Berkshire truly went all out for the Treasury last year. In connection with the General Re merger, we wrote a $30 million check to the government to pay an SEC fee tied to the new shares created by the deal. We understand that this payment set an SEC record. Charlie and I are enormous admirers of what the Commission has accomplished for American investors. We would rather, however, have found another way to show our admiration.

GEICO(1-800-847-7536)

GEICO (1-800-847-7536)

把绝妙的创意和出色的经理人凑到一起,你必定能收获非凡的成果。这样的组合,在 GEICO 正生机勃勃地运转。创意是低价车险,靠直接面向客户的营销得以成真;经理人则是托尼·奈斯利。说白了,商界里没有第二个人能把 GEICO 经营得比托尼更好。他直觉精准、精力无穷、执行力无懈可击。在恪守承保纪律的同时,托尼正打造出一个市场份额加速攀升的组织。

Combine a great idea with a great manager and you're certain to obtain a great result. That mix is alive and well at GEICO. The idea is low-cost auto insurance, made possible by direct-to-customer marketing, and the manager is Tony Nicely. Quite simply, there is no one in the business world who could run GEICO better than Tony does. His instincts are unerring, his energy is boundless, and his execution is flawless. While maintaining underwriting discipline, Tony is building an organization that is gaining market share at an accelerating rate.

这样的势头,得益于我们的薪酬政策。直销保险——即保险公司与投保人之间不设代理人或经纪人——需要大笔前期投入,因此第一年的业务往往严重亏损。在 GEICO,我们不愿这笔成本吓退员工,让他们不敢放手去拓展新业务——这些业务一旦续保,就会带来可观的利润——所以我们把它排除在薪酬公式之外。那么,算进公式的是什么?员工奖金和利润分享的 50%,与我们“成熟”保单组合的盈利挂钩,也就是那些投保已超过一年的保单;另外 50%,则与投保人数的增长挂钩——在这一头,我们把油门踩到了底。

This pace has been encouraged by our compensation policies. The direct writing of insurance -- that is, without there being an agent or broker between the insurer and its policyholder -- involves a substantial front-end investment. First-year business is therefore unprofitable in a major way. At GEICO, we do not wish this cost to deter our associates from the aggressive pursuit of new business -- which, as it renews, will deliver significant profits -- so we leave it out of our compensation formulas. What's included then? We base 50% of our associates' bonuses and profit sharing on the earnings of our "seasoned" book, meaning policies that have been with us for more than a year. The other 50% is tied to growth in policyholders -- and here we have stepped on the gas.

1995 年,也就是被伯克希尔收购的前一年,GEICO 在营销上花了 3,300 万美元,有 652 名电话客服。去年,公司营销支出增至 1.43 亿美元,客服人数增至 2,162 人。这些投入带来的效果,可从下面的新业务与有效保单数据中看出:

In 1995, the year prior to its acquisition by Berkshire, GEICO spent $33 million on marketing and had 652 telephone counselors. Last year the company spent $143 million, and the counselor count grew to 2,162. The effects that these efforts had at the company are shown by the new business and in-force figures below:

新车

New Auto

汽车保单

Auto Policies

年份

Years

保单*

Policies*

有效保单*

In-Force*

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

1993
354,882
2,011,055
1994
396,217
2,147,549
1995
461,608
2,310,037
1996
617,669
2,543,699
1997
913,176
2,949,439
1998
1,317,761
3,562,644
1993
354,882
2,011,055
1994
396,217
2,147,549
1995
461,608
2,310,037
1996
617,669
2,543,699
1997
913,176
2,949,439
1998
1,317,761
3,562,644
  • 仅指“自愿”业务,不含指派风险等。
  • "Voluntary" only; excludes assigned risks and the like.

1999 年,我们将再度增加营销预算,至少投入 1.9 亿美元。事实上,只要我们能同时把服务投保人所需的基础设施搭好,伯克希尔为 GEICO 拓展新业务愿意投入的钱就没有上限。

In 1999, we will again increase our marketing budget, spending at least $190 million. In fact, there is no limit to what Berkshire is willing to invest in GEICO's new-business activity, as long as we can concurrently build the infrastructure the company needs to properly serve its policyholders.

由于有首年成本,那些看重季度或年度利润的公司会对这类投资避而远之,无论它在打造长期价值上多么明智。我们的算盘不同:我们只问自己,每花出一美元,是否创造了超过一美元的价值——只要这道算术的答案是肯定的,钱花得越多,我越高兴。

Because of the first-year costs, companies that are concerned about quarterly or annual earnings would shy from similar investments, no matter how intelligent these might be in terms of building long-term value. Our calculus is different: We simply measure whether we are creating more than a dollar of value per dollar spent -- and if that calculation is favorable, the more dollars we spend the happier I am.

当然,GEICO 的成功远不止低价和铺天盖地的广告。理赔也必须公平、迅速、友善——我们做到了。这里有一份公允的评分:在纽约,我们业务量最大的州,保险局最近报告称,GEICO 1997 年的投诉率不仅是五大车险公司中最低的,还不到其余四家平均值的一半。

There is far more to GEICO's success, of course, than low prices and a torrent of advertising. The handling of claims must also be fair, fast and friendly -- and ours is. Here's an impartial scorecard on how we shape up: In New York, our largest-volume state, the Insurance Department recently reported that GEICO's complaint ratio in 1997 was not only the lowest of the five largest auto insurers but was also less than half the average of the other four.

GEICO 1998 年 6.7% 的利润率好过我们的预期——说实话,也好过我们的心愿。这一成绩折射出全行业的普遍现象:近年来,车祸的发生频率和严重程度都意外下降。我们的回应是 1998 年把费率下调 3.3%,1999 年还会再降。这些举措很快会把利润率压下来——至少压到我们的目标 4%,甚至可能低得多。无论如何,我们相信自家利润率仍将远好于行业。

GEICO's 1998 profit margin of 6.7% was better than we had anticipated -- and, indeed, better than we wished. Our results reflect an industry-wide phenomenon: In recent years, both the frequency of auto accidents and their severity have unexpectedly declined. We responded by reducing rates 3.3% in 1998, and we will reduce them still more in 1999. These moves will soon bring profit margins down -- at the least to 4%, which is our target, and perhaps considerably lower. Whatever the case, we believe that our margins will continue to be much better than those of the industry.

1998 年,GEICO 的增长和盈利双双出色,其利润分享和奖金也同样亮眼。事实上,1.03 亿美元的利润分享——相当于工资的 32.3%,发给全部 9,313 名任职满一年的员工——很可能创下了全美大型企业利润分享比例的最高纪录。(此外,员工还享有一份公司出资的养老金计划。)

With GEICO's growth and profitability both outstanding in 1998, so also were its profit-sharing and bonus payments. Indeed, the profit-sharing payment of $103 million or 32.3% of salary -- which went to all 9,313 associates who had been with us for more than a year -- may well have been the highest percentage payment at any large company in the country. (In addition, associates benefit from a company-funded pension plan.)

32.3% 或许会成为一个高水位线,因为在我们的利润分享公式里,盈利部分今后几乎必然下降。但增长部分则很可能上升。总体而言,我们预计这两项指标合在一起,将在未来数十年带来数额极为可观的利润分享。对员工来说,增长还以其他方式带来回报:去年我们有 4,612 人获得晋升。

The 32.3% may turn out to be a high-water mark, given that the profitability component in our profit-sharing calculation is almost certain to come down in the future. The growth component, though, may well increase. Overall, we expect the two benchmarks together to dictate very significant profit-sharing payments for decades to come. For our associates, growth pays off in other ways as well: Last year we promoted 4,612 people.

GEICO 的数字固然亮眼,但我们还有很多事情要做。1998 年,我们的市场份额显著提升——但只是从 3% 升到 3.5%。现在我们每拥有一个投保人,就还有另外十个人本该成为我们的客户。

Impressive as the GEICO figures are, we have far more to do. Our market share improved significantly in 1998 -- but only from 3% to 3 ½ %. For every policyholder we now have, there are another ten who should be giving us their business.

读到这里的各位,或许就有人属于这一类。查询过我们费率的人中,大约 40% 发现跟我们投保能省下钱。之所以不是 100%,是因为各家保险公司的承保判断不同——有些保险公司对住在特定地区或从事特定职业的司机,给予的信用评级比我们更优。不过我们相信,在所有面向公众的全国性车险公司里,我们报出低价的频率高过其他任何一家。而且,在 40 个州,我们还能给股东一项特别折扣——通常是 8%。所以,打个电话来比比价吧。

Some of you who are reading this may be in that category. About 40% of those who check our rates find that they can save money by doing business with us. The proportion is not 100% because insurers differ in their underwriting judgements, with some giving more credit than we do to drivers who live in certain geographical areas or work at certain occupations. We believe, however, that we more frequently offer the low price than does any other national carrier selling insurance to all comers. Furthermore, in 40 states we can offer a special discount -- usually 8% -- to our shareholders. So give us a call and check us out.

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你或许觉得,这一节登一则广告已经够了。可我还有一则要打——这一则是冲上市公司经理人去的。

You may think that one commercial in this section is enough. But I have another to present, this one directed at managers of publicly-owned companies.

在伯克希尔,我们认为,去教托尼这样出色的 CEO 怎么经营公司,简直是蠢到了家。我们多数经理人要是整天被人指手画脚,根本不会为我们干活。(说到底,他们大都不必为谁打工,因为 75% 左右的人本身就很有钱。)更何况,他们是商界的马克·麦奎尔,用不着我们指点怎么握棒、何时挥棒。

At Berkshire we feel that telling outstanding CEOs, such as Tony, how to run their companies would be the height of foolishness. Most of our managers wouldn't work for us if they got a lot of backseat driving. (Generally, they don't have to work for anyone , since 75% or so are independently wealthy.) Besides, they are the Mark McGwires of the business world and need no advice from us as to how to hold the bat or when to swing.

不过,隶属于伯克希尔,仍能让就算最好的经理人也更加如虎添翼。首先,我们取消了 CEO 职位通常附带的一切繁文缛节和无产出活动。我们的经理人完全可以自主安排自己的日程。其次,我们只交给每人一项简单的任务:把你的企业当成这样来经营就好——1)你百分之百拥有它;2)它是你和家人在世上已有、也将会有的唯一资产;3)你至少一百年内不得出售或合并它。由此可以推出一条:我们叮嘱他们,任何决策都不该受会计考量哪怕一丝一毫的影响。我们要经理人思考的是哪些东西真正重要,而不是账该怎么记。

Nevertheless, Berkshire's ownership may make even the best of managers more effective. First, we eliminate all of the ritualistic and nonproductive activities that normally go with the job of CEO. Our managers are totally in charge of their personal schedules. Second, we give each a simple mission: Just run your business as if: 1) you own 100% of it; 2) it is the only asset in the world that you and your family have or will ever have; and 3) you can't sell or merge it for at least a century. As a corollary, we tell them they should not let any of their decisions be affected even slightly by accounting considerations. We want our managers to think about what counts, not how it will be counted.

极少有上市公司的 CEO 能在类似的要求下经营,主要是因为他们的股东只顾盯着短期前景和报表利润。但伯克希尔拥有一个股东群体——今后数十年也将如此——他们的投资眼光,是整个上市公司世界里能找到的最为长远的。事实上,我们的大多数股份,被那些打算到死仍然持有的投资者握在手里。因此,我们可以要求我们的 CEO 为长期价值最大化而经营,而不是为了下一季度的利润。我们当然不会无视企业眼下的业绩——多数情况下,这些业绩都至关重要——但我们绝不愿以牺牲不断增强的竞争优势为代价,去换取这些业绩。

Very few CEOs of public companies operate under a similar mandate, mainly because they have owners who focus on short-term prospects and reported earnings. Berkshire, however, has a shareholder base -- which it will have for decades to come -- that has the longest investment horizon to be found in the public-company universe. Indeed, a majority of our shares are held by investors who expect to die still holding them. We can therefore ask our CEOs to manage for maximum long-term value, rather than for next quarter's earnings. We certainly don't ignore the current results of our businesses -- in most cases, they are of great importance -- but we never want them to be achieved at the expense of our building ever-greater competitive strengths.

我相信,GEICO 的故事印证了伯克希尔这套做法的好处。查理和我半点也没教过托尼什么——今后也永远不会——但我们营造了一种环境,让他能把全副才华都用在要紧事上。他不必把时间或精力耗费在董事会会议、媒体采访、投行演示或与金融分析师的谈话上。而且,他永远不必花哪怕一秒钟去考虑融资、信用评级,或者华尔街对每股收益的预期。由于我们的所有权结构,他也深知这套运营框架将延续数十年。在这种自由环境下,托尼本人和他的公司,都能把几乎是无限的潜力,转化为与之匹配的成就。

I believe the GEICO story demonstrates the benefits of Berkshire's approach. Charlie and I haven't taught Tony a thing -- and never will -- but we have created an environment that allows him to apply all of his talents to what's important. He does not have to devote his time or energy to board meetings, press interviews, presentations by investment bankers or talks with financial analysts. Furthermore, he need never spend a moment thinking about financing, credit ratings or "Street" expectations for earnings per share. Because of our ownership structure, he also knows that this operational framework will endure for decades to come. In this environment of freedom, both Tony and his company can convert their almost limitless potential into matching achievements.

如果你经营着一家大型的盈利企业,而且它在类似 GEICO 的环境里也能蓬勃发展,请查阅第 21 页我们的收购标准,然后给我打个电话。我保证快速答复,而且除了查理,绝不会向任何人提起你的问询。

If you are running a large, profitable business that will thrive in a GEICO-like environment, check our acquisition criteria on page 21 and give me a call. I promise a fast answer and will mention your inquiry to no one except Charlie.

Executive Jet Aviation(电话:1-800-848-6436)

Executive Jet Aviation (1-800-848-6436)

要看懂 Executive Jet Aviation(EJA)的巨大潜力,你得先对它卖的生意有些了解:出售飞机的分时产权,并为众多产权人运营机队。EJA 的 CEO 里奇·桑图利(Rich Santulli)在 1986 年开创了分时产权这个行业,当时他设想出一种重要的全新用机方式。之后,他凭着胆识与才干,把这个想法变成了一桩大生意。

To understand the huge potential at Executive Jet Aviation (EJA), you need some understanding of its business, which is selling fractional shares of jets and operating the fleet for its many owners. Rich Santulli, CEO of EJA, created the fractional ownership industry in 1986, by visualizing an important new way of using planes. Then he combined guts and talent to turn his idea into a major business.

在分时产权计划里,你买下 EJA 提供的众多机型中任意一款飞机的一部分——比如八分之一。这笔购买让你每年有权飞行 100 小时。(“空机调机”小时不计入你的配额,你还获准把飞行时间在五年内平均计算。)此外,你既要按月缴纳管理费,还要按实际飞行小时数另付费用。

In a fractional ownership plan, you purchase a portion -- say 1 / 8 th -- of any of a wide variety of jets that EJA offers. That purchase entitles you to 100 hours of flying time annually. ("Dead-head" hours don't count against your allotment, and you are also allowed to average your hours over five years.) In addition, you pay both a monthly management fee and a fee for hours actually flown.

然后,只需提前几小时通知,EJA 就会把你的飞机——或一架至少同等好的飞机——送到你选择的美国境内 5,500 座机场中的任意一座。实际上,叫你的飞机,就像打电话叫出租车。

Then, on a few hours notice, EJA makes your plane, or another at least as good, available to you at your choice of the 5500 airports in the U.S. In effect, calling up your plane is like phoning for a taxi.

我头一回听说这个名为 NetJets® 的项目,大约是在四年前,从我们旗下 H.H. Brown 的经理弗兰克·鲁尼那里。弗兰克用过这项服务,满心喜欢,便建议我见见里奇,看看能否给我家也签一份。里奇只花了大约 15 分钟,就说动我买下一架霍克 1000 的四分之一产权(每年 200 小时)。打那以后,我家人通过 300 趟出行、累计 900 小时的飞行,亲身体验了 EJA 服务有多么友好、高效与安全。一句话,他们爱极了这项服务。事实上,他们很快就热衷到,我远在知道有可能收购这家公司之前,就为 EJA 拍了一则客户证言广告。不过,我确实跟里奇讲了,要是他哪天动起卖公司的念头,给我打个电话。走运的是,他去年 5 月给我打了电话,我们很快敲定了一笔 7.25 亿美元的交易,现金和股票各付一半。

I first heard about the NetJets® program, as it is called, about four years ago from Frank Rooney, our manager at H.H. Brown. Frank had used and been delighted with the service and suggested that I meet Rich to investigate signing up for my family's use. It took Rich about 15 minutes to sell me a quarter (200 hours annually) of a Hawker 1000. Since then, my family has learned firsthand -- through flying 900 hours on 300 trips -- what a friendly, efficient, and safe operation EJA runs. Quite simply, they love this service. In fact, they quickly grew so enthusiastic that I did a testimonial ad for EJA long before I knew there was any possibility of our purchasing the business. I did, however, ask Rich to give me a call if he ever got interested in selling. Luckily, he phoned me last May, and we quickly made a $725 million deal, paying equal amounts of cash and stock.

EJA 是业内迄今遥遥领先的最大运营商,拥有超过 1,000 名客户和 163 架飞机(其中包括 23 架由 EJA 自有或租赁的“核心”飞机,以确保即使在需求最旺的时段,也能提供一流服务)。当然,安全是任何飞行运营中的头等大事。里奇的飞行员——如今约有 650 名——每年至少两次在飞行安全国际公司(FlightSafety International)接受全面培训,这家公司是伯克希尔旗下另一子公司,也是全球飞行员培训的领先者。关于我们的飞行员,一句话便足以说明问题:我已经卖掉了伯克希尔的专机,今后所有的公务出行和个人出行,都将交由 NetJets 的机组执飞。

EJA, which is by far the largest operator in its industry, has more than 1,000 customers and 163 aircraft (including 23 "core" aircraft that are owned or leased by EJA itself, so that it can make sure that service is first-class even during the times when demand is heaviest). Safety, of course, is the paramount issue in any flight operation, and Rich's pilots -- now numbering about 650 -- receive extensive training at least twice a year from FlightSafety International, another Berkshire subsidiary and the world leader in pilot training. The bottom line on our pilots: I've sold the Berkshire plane and will now do all of my business flying, as well as my personal flying, with NetJets' crews.

在这个行业做领头羊,对各方来说都是一大优势。我们的客户得利,是因为我们拥有一支时刻遍布全国的机队,这种全覆盖网络让我们能提供无以伦比的服务。同时,我们也因这种网络覆盖而获益,因为它降低了空机调机成本。对我们客户而言,还有一层难以抗拒的吸引力:我们提供来自波音、湾流、达索、塞斯纳和雷神的机型,而我们那两家竞争对手,由制造商控股,只提供自家生产的飞机。实际上,NetJets 就像一位医生,能根据每位病人的需要,推荐最对症的药;而我们的竞争对手,则是“自家”品牌的生产商,不得不给所有人一律开同一种药。

Being the leader in this industry is a major advantage for all concerned. Our customers gain because we have an armada of planes positioned throughout the country at all times, a blanketing that allows us to provide unmatched service. Meanwhile, we gain from the blanketing because it reduces dead-head costs. Another compelling attraction for our clients is that we offer products from Boeing, Gulfstream, Falcon, Cessna, and Raytheon, whereas our two competitors are owned by manufacturers that offer only their own planes. In effect, NetJets is like a physician who can recommend whatever medicine best fits the needs of each patient; our competitors, in contrast, are producers of a "house" brand that they must prescribe for one and all.

很多时候,我们的客户——无论企业还是个人——会同时持有几架不同飞机的部分产权,从而按具体任务挑选最合适的机型。举个例子,某位客户可能持有三架不同喷气机各十六分之一的产权(每架给他 50 小时飞行时间),三架加起来就凑成一支虚拟机队,成本却只是买下一整架的零头。

In many cases our clients, both corporate and individual, own fractions of several different planes and can therefore match specific planes to specific missions. For example, a client might own 1 / 16 th of three different jets (each giving it 50 hours of flying time), which in total give it a virtual fleet, obtained for a small fraction of the cost of a single plane.

值得一提的是,能从分时产权受益的,绝非只有小企业。眼下,美国一些最大的公司也已把 NetJets 当作自有机队的补充。这既能满足高峰需求,又能承担那些若用自家飞机执飞、便会累积大量空驶时间的任务,为公司省下大笔开支。

Significantly, it is not only small businesses that can benefit from fractional ownership. Already, some of America's largest companies use NetJets as a supplement to their own fleet. This saves them big money in both meeting peak requirements and in flying missions that would require their wholly-owned planes to log a disproportionate amount of dead-head hours.

当一架飞机准备用于私人出行时,最能拍板的一句话是:客户要么现在就签,要么将来他的子女多半会签。四十年前,我亲爱的爱丽丝姑妈问我她买不买得起一件裘皮大衣时,我就给她讲过这道算术。我的回答一锤定音:“爱丽丝,不是你在买,是你的继承人在买。”

When a plane is slated for personal use, the clinching argument is that either the client signs up now or his children likely will later. That's an equation I explained to my wonderful Aunt Alice 40 years ago when she asked me whether she could afford a fur coat. My reply settled the issue: "Alice, you aren't buying it; your heirs are."

EJA 的增长迅猛得惊人:1997 年,全球公务机订单中有 31% 出自这家公司。尽管如此,里奇和我都认为,分时产权的潜力才刚刚被触及。若有成千上万人觉得独自全资拥有一架飞机划算——而要在经济上说得通,这架飞机每年得飞 350 到 400 小时——那么,觉得分时产权划算的人,数量必定是这个数字的许多倍。

EJA's growth has been explosive: In 1997, it accounted for 31% of all corporate jets ordered in the world. Nonetheless, Rich and I believe that the potential of fractional ownership has barely been scratched. If many thousands of owners find it sensible to own 100% of a plane -- which must be used 350-400 hours annually if it's to make economic sense -- there must be a large multiple of that number for whom fractional ownership works.

除了是一位出色的高管,里奇还很有趣。跟我们多数经理人一样,他压根没有为钱工作的必要。里奇把时间花在 EJA 上,因为那是他的心头肉——他想看看自己能把它带到多远。这答案我俩其实都清楚,无论从字面还是从寓意上讲:到天涯海角。

In addition to being a terrific executive, Rich is fun. Like most of our managers, he has no economic need whatsoever to work. Rich spends his time at EJA because it's his baby -- and he wants to see how far he can take it. We both already know the answer, both literally and figuratively: to the ends of the earth.

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最后,给伯克希尔的董事们一点小提醒:去年我在波仙珠宝和 EJA 的消费,是我年薪的九倍多。想想看,你们要是肯给我涨点薪水,伯克希尔的生意得红火成什么样。

And now a small hint to Berkshire directors: Last year I spent more than nine times my salary at Borsheim's and EJA. Just think how Berkshire's business would boom if you'd only spring for a raise.

通用再保险

General Re

12 月 21 日,我们完成了对通用再保险公司(General Re Corp.)220 亿美元的收购。除全资拥有美国最大的财产意外险再保险公司——通用再保险公司(General Reinsurance Corporation)外,该公司还持有(含一项已约定收购的股份)全球历史最悠久的再保险公司——科隆再保险公司(Cologne Re)82% 的股权。两家公司合起来承保所有险种的再保险业务,经营遍及 124 个国家。

On December 21, we completed our $22 billion acquisition of General Re Corp. In addition to owning 100% of General Reinsurance Corporation, the largest U.S. property-casualty reinsurer, the company also owns (including stock it has an arrangement to buy) 82% of the oldest reinsurance company in the world, Cologne Re. The two companies together reinsure all lines of insurance and operate in 124 countries.

几十年来,通用再保险的名字一直是再保险业品质、诚信与专业的代名词——而在罗恩·弗格森的带领下,这一声誉又添了几分光彩。对于通用再保险和科隆再保险管理层的本领,伯克希尔实在添不进任何东西。相反,有许多地方他们能教我们。

For many decades, General Re's name has stood for quality, integrity and professionalism in reinsurance -- and under Ron Ferguson's leadership, this reputation has been burnished still more. Berkshire can add absolutely nothing to the skills of General Re's and Cologne Re's managers. On the contrary, there is a lot that they can teach us.

尽管如此,我们相信,隶属伯克希尔会在若干重要方面惠及通用再保险,十年后它的盈利,将远超没有这桩合并所能达到的水平。我们如此乐观,是因为我们能给通用再保险的管理层一份运营的自由,让他们能以最能发挥公司优势的方式放手施为。

Nevertheless, we believe that Berkshire's ownership will benefit General Re in important ways and that its earnings a decade from now will materially exceed those that would have been attainable absent the merger. We base this optimism on the fact that we can offer General Re's management a freedom to operate in whatever manner will best allow the company to exploit its strengths.

让我们花一点工夫看看再保险这门生意,就能明白为何通用再保险单靠自己,做不到隶属伯克希尔后能做的事。再保险的需求,大多来自那些想摆脱因巨额异常损失而引起盈利剧烈波动的原保险公司。说到底,再保险公司是靠替客户承接它想甩掉的波动来收费的。

Let's look for a moment at the reinsurance business to understand why General Re could not on its own do what it can under Berkshire. Most of the demand for reinsurance comes from primary insurers who want to escape the wide swings in earnings that result from large and unusual losses. In effect, a reinsurer gets paid for absorbing the volatility that the client insurer wants to shed.

讽刺的是,一家上市的再保险公司,却要被股东和信用评估者,按其自身业绩的平稳程度来打分。盈利剧烈波动会同时拖累信用评级和市盈率,哪怕产生这种波动的业务,长期看有望带来令人满意的利润。这一市场现实,有时会逼再保险公司付出昂贵的代价,比如把承保业务的相当一部分分出去(这类交易叫“转分保”),或仅仅因为一笔好业务会招来过多波动就把它拒之门外。

Ironically, though, a publicly-held reinsurer gets graded by both its owners and those who evaluate its credit on the smoothness of its own results. Wide swings in earnings hurt both credit ratings and p/e ratios, even when the business that produces such swings has an expectancy of satisfactory profits over time. This market reality sometimes causes a reinsurer to make costly moves, among them laying off a significant portion of the business it writes (in transactions that are called "retrocessions") or rejecting good business simply because it threatens to bring on too much volatility.

伯克希尔则相反:只要长期看能带来利润增长的预期,我们乐于接纳波动。更何况,我们是一座资本的诺克斯堡,这意味着盈利再波动,也动摇不了我们顶级的信用评级。于是,我们拥有一个近乎完美的架构,几乎能以任意规模承保并自留再保险业务。事实上,过去十年,我们正是凭这份底气,建起了一桩强大的巨灾再保险业务。

Berkshire, in contrast, happily accepts volatility, just as long as it carries with it the expectation of increased profits over time. Furthermore, we are a Fort Knox of capital, and that means volatile earnings can't impair our premier credit ratings. Thus we have the perfect structure for writing -- and retaining -- reinsurance in virtually any amount. In fact, we've used this strength over the past decade to build a powerful super-cat business.

而通用再保险带给我们的,是销售力量、技术设施和管理团队,它们让我们能把这份架构优势用在这个行业的方方面面。尤其是,通用再保险和科隆再保险如今可以加快进军国际市场——行业增长的大头,几乎肯定会出现在那里。正如合并委托说明书所详述的,伯克希尔还给通用再保险带来税务和投资上的好处。但这桩合并最有说服力的理由,无非是:通用再保险杰出的管理层如今可以放手做自己最拿手的事,不再被那些曾束缚其增长的条条框框所困。

What General Re gives us, however, is the distribution force, technical facilities and management that will allow us to employ our structural strength in every facet of the industry. In particular, General Re and Cologne Re can now accelerate their push into international markets, where the preponderance of industry growth will almost certainly occur. As the merger proxy statement spelled out, Berkshire also brings tax and investment benefits to General Re. But the most compelling reason for the merger is simply that General Re's outstanding management can now do what it does best, unfettered by the constraints that have limited its growth.

伯克希尔将接手通用再保险的投资组合,但不承接科隆再保险的投资组合。不过,我们不会介入通用再保险的承保业务。我们只会请公司保持一贯的纪律,与此同时,提高自留业务的比例,拓宽产品线,并扩大地域覆盖面——之所以推动这些动作,正是基于对伯克希尔的财务实力以及对盈利剧烈波动的承受力的认知。我们早就说过,我们宁愿要颠簸不平的 15%,也不要平滑稳定的 12%。

<<<END P 15>>>

Berkshire is assuming responsibility for General Re's investment portfolio, though not for Cologne Re's. We will not, however, be involved in General Re's underwriting. We will simply ask the company to exercise the discipline of the past while increasing the proportion of its business that is retained, expanding its product line, and widening its geographical coverage -- making these moves in recognition of Berkshire's financial strength and tolerance for wide swings in earnings. As we've long said, we prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12%.

假以时日,罗恩和他的团队会把通用再保险的新潜力发挥到极致。我和他相识多年,两家公司都曾把不少业务分给对方再保。事实上,1976 年 GEICO 命悬一线时,正是通用再保险在它起死回生中扮演了关键角色。

Over time, Ron and his team will maximize General Re's new potential. He and I have known each other for many years, and each of our companies has initiated significant business that it has reinsured with the other. Indeed, General Re played a key role in the resuscitation of GEICO from its near-death status in 1976.

罗恩和里奇·桑图利都打算来参加股东大会,希望你们有机会跟他们打个招呼。

Both Ron and Rich Santulli plan to be at the annual meeting, and I hope you get a chance to say hello to them.

财产与意外险的经济学

The Economics of Property-Casualty Insurance

随着通用再保险收购完成,加之 GEICO 业务的迅猛扩张,懂得如何评估一家保险公司,就比以往任何时候都更为重要。关键的决定因素有三:(1)业务产生的浮存金规模;(2)它的成本;以及(3)最重要的,这两者的长期前景。

With the acquisition of General Re -- and with GEICO's business mushrooming -- it becomes more important than ever that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most important of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.

先说浮存金,它是我们持有、却并不拥有的钱。在保险业务里,浮存金之所以产生,是因为保费在赔付之前就已收进来,这个时间差有时长达许多年。在这段时间里,保险公司拿这些钱去投资。通常,这桩美差伴随着一个隐忧:保险公司收进的保费,往往不足以覆盖它最终要付的赔款和费用,于是就有了“承保亏损”,这正是浮存金的成本。若一家保险公司长期的浮存金成本,低于它另辟他途筹资的成本,这门生意就有价值;可一旦浮存金成本高过市场资金利率,这门生意就成了个次品。

To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. Typically, this pleasant activity carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.

这里得提个醒:由于损失成本只能靠估算,保险公司在核算承保结果上有极大的回旋余地,这让投资者很难算出一家公司真实的浮存金成本。估算的偏差,通常出于无心,偶尔却不然,其数额可能大得惊人;而这些误算的后果,会直接灌进利润里。老到的观察者一般能察觉大规模的准备金失当,普通公众却往往只能照单全收报表上呈现的数字。有时候,那些大牌审计师默许认可的数据,连我都看得目瞪口呆。至于伯克希尔,查理和我在向各位呈报承保结果时力求保守,因为我们发现,保险业里的意外几乎全是坏消息。

A caution is appropriate here: Because loss costs must be estimated, insurers have enormous latitude in figuring their underwriting results, and that makes it very difficult for investors to calculate a company's true cost of float. Errors of estimation, usually innocent but sometimes not, can be huge. The consequences of these miscalculations flow directly into earnings. An experienced observer can usually detect large-scale errors in reserving, but the general public can typically do no more than accept what's presented, and at times I have been amazed by the numbers that big-name auditors have implicitly blessed. As for Berkshire, Charlie and I attempt to be conservative in presenting its underwriting results to you, because we have found that virtually all surprises in insurance are unpleasant ones.

下表列出了自 32 年前进入保险业以来,伯克希尔各项保险业务产生的浮存金。数据取自每隔五年的年份,外加最近一年,后者已包含通用再保险庞大的浮存金。表中我们这样计算浮存金(相对于保费规模,我们产生的浮存金相当可观):加上净损失准备金、损失调整准备金、承接再保险项下持有的资金,以及未赚保费准备金,再减去代理人往来余额、预付获取成本、预付税款,以及承接再保险相关的递延费用。(明白了吗?)

The table that follows shows the float generated by Berkshire's insurance operations since we entered the business 32 years ago. The data are for every fifth year and also the last, which includes General Re's huge float. For the table we have calculated our float -- which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume -- by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting agents balances, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Got that?)

年份

Year

平均浮存金

Average Float

(单位:百万美元)

(in $ millions)

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1967
17
1972
70
1977
139
1982
221
1987
1,267
1992
2,290
1997
7,093
1998
1967
17
1972
70
1977
139
1982
221
1987
1,267
1992
2,290
1997
7,093
1998

22,762(年末)

22,762 (yearend)

浮存金的增长固然可观——年复合增长率达 25.4%——但它的成本才是关键。一旦成本变得过高,浮存金的增长就会从福气变成祸害。

Impressive as the growth in our float has been -- 25.4% compounded annually -- what really counts is the cost of this item. If that becomes too high, growth in float becomes a curse rather than a blessing.

在伯克希尔,消息全是好的:过去 32 年,我们的平均成本远在零以下。总的算下来,我们录得可观的承保利润,也就是说,我们因持有一大笔且不断增长的资金,反倒得了报酬。这是最理想的境况。事实上,尽管我们的净浮存金在资产负债表上被记作负债,它对我们的经济价值,却比等量的净资产还要高。只要我们能持续实现承保利润,浮存金在价值上就会一直压过净资产。

At Berkshire, the news is all good: Our average cost over the 32 years has been well under zero. In aggregate, we have posted a substantial underwriting profit, which means that we have been paid for holding a large and growing amount of money. This is the best of all worlds. Indeed, though our net float is recorded on our balance sheet as a liability, it has had more economic value to us than an equal amount of net worth would have had. As long as we can continue to achieve an underwriting profit, float will continue to outrank net worth in value.

未来几年,伯克希尔的浮存金增长可能会比较平缓。再保险市场行情疲软,而在这个行业里,业务关系变化得很慢。因此,通用再保险的浮存金——占我们总量的三分之二——短期内不太可能显著增长。不过我们预期,相比其他保险公司,我们的浮存金成本仍会保持相当诱人的水平。

During the next few years, Berkshire's growth in float may well be modest. The reinsurance market is soft, and in this business, relationships change slowly. Therefore, General Re's float -- 2 / 3 rds of our total -- is unlikely to increase significantly in the near term. We do expect, however, that our cost of float will remain very attractive compared to that of other insurers.

报告利润的来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下表列出了伯克希尔报告利润的主要来源。在这张表里,购买法会计调整并不摊到各自适用的具体业务上,而是加总后单列。这样,你就能看到,倘若我们未曾收购这些企业,它们本会报出怎样的利润。基于第 62、63 页所述的缘由,我们认为这种呈现方式,比按通用会计准则(GAAP)——它要求把收购溢价逐项从各业务中冲销——对投资者和经理人更有用。当然,表中所列的总利润,与我们经审计财报里的 GAAP 总额完全一致。

The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. For the reasons discussed on pages 62 and 63, this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-premiums to be charged off business-by-business. The total earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.

(单位:百万美元)

(in millions)

伯克希尔所占

Berkshire's Share

净收益份额

of Net Earnings

(税后及

(after taxes and

税前利润

Pre-Tax Earnings

扣除少数股东权益后)

minority interests)

1998
1997
1998
1997
1998
1997
1998
1997

经营利润:

Operating Earnings:

保险集团:

Insurance Group:

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承保——巨灾再保险

Underwriting -- Super-Cat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$154
$283
$100
$183
$154
$283
$100
$183

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承保——其他再保险

Underwriting -- Other Reinsurance . . . . . . . . . .

(175)
(155)
(114)
(100)
(175)
(155)
(114)
(100)

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承保——GEICO

Underwriting -- GEICO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

269
281
175
181
269
281
175
181

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承保——其他原保险

Underwriting -- Other Primary . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17
53
10
34
17
53
10
34

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净投资收益

Net Investment Income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

974
882
731
704
974
882
731
704

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《布法罗新闻》

Buffalo News . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

53
56
32
33
53
56
32
33

金融与金融产品业务

Finance and Financial Products Businesses . . . .

205
28
133
18
205
28
133
18

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航空服务

Flight Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

181
(1)
140
110
(1)
84
181
(1)
140
110
(1)
84

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家居用品

Home Furnishings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

72
57
(2)
41
32
(2)
72
57
(2)
41
32
(2)

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国际冰雪皇后

International Dairy Queen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

58
58

--

--

35
35

--

--

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珠宝……

Jewelry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

39
32
23
18
39
32
23
18

斯科特-费泽(不含金融业务)……

Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation) . . . . .

137
119
85
77
137
119
85
77

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喜诗糖果……

See's Candies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

62
59
40
35
62
59
40
35

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鞋业集团

Shoe Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

33
49
23
32
33
49
23
32

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通用再保险

General Re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26
(3)
26
(3)

--

--

16
(3)
16
(3)

--

--

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购买法会计调整……

Purchase-Accounting Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . .

(123)
(101)
(118)
(94)
(123)
(101)
(118)
(94)

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利息支出(4)

Interest Expense (4) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(100)
(107)
(63)
(67)
(100)
(107)
(63)
(67)

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股东指定捐款……

Shareholder-Designated Contributions . . . . . . . .

(17)
(15)
(11)
(10)
(17)
(15)
(11)
(10)

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其他……

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

34
60
29
37
34
60
29
37

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经营利润……

Operating Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1,899
1,721
1,277
1,197
1,899
1,721
1,277
1,197

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投资资本利得……

Capital Gains from Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2,415
1,106
1,553
704
2,415
1,106
1,553
704

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所有实体合计收益……

Total Earnings - All Entities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$4,314
$2,827
$ 2,830
$1,901
$4,314
$2,827
$ 2,830
$1,901

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(1)自 1998 年 8 月 7 日起纳入 Executive Jet。

(1) Includes Executive Jet from August 7, 1998.

(2)自 1997 年 7 月 1 日起纳入 Star Furniture。

(2) Includes Star Furniture from July 1, 1997.

(3)自收购日 1998 年 12 月 21 日起纳入。

(3) From date of acquisition, December 21, 1998.

(4)
(4)

不含金融业务的利息支出。

Excludes interest expense of Finance Businesses.

你们大可为我们的运营经理们感到骄傲。他们几乎总能在各自行业条件所允许的范围内,交出最顶尖的盈利,同时不断巩固各自业务的长期竞争优势。合起来,他们为你们创造了数百亿美元的价值。

You can be proud of our operating managers. They almost invariably deliver earnings that are at the very top of what conditions in their industries allow, meanwhile fortifying their businesses' long-term competitive strengths. In aggregate, they have created many billions of dollars of value for you.

举个例子:在 1994 年的信里,我提过拉尔夫·谢伊在斯科特-费泽的非凡表现。当时我压根没想到,那不过是他刚刚热身。去年,斯科特-费泽在几乎不用杠杆(除金融子公司一笔保守的负债外)的情况下,以 1.12 亿美元的净资产,创下 9,650 万美元税后利润的新高。

An example: In my 1994 letter, I reported on Ralph Schey's extraordinary performance at Scott Fetzer. Little did I realize that he was just warming up. Last year Scott Fetzer, operating with no leverage (except for a conservative level of debt in its finance subsidiary), earned a record $96.5 million after-tax on its $112 million net worth.

如今,伯克希尔麾下有一批为数罕见的人物,像拉尔夫这样,在各自行业里堪称传奇。他们中许多是随公司被收购而加入的,但近年来,我们也在内部发掘了不少强将。收购通用再保险和 EJA 时,我们又以一种重要的方式,壮大了这支全明星阵容。

Today, Berkshire has an unusually large number of individuals, such as Ralph, who are truly legends in their industries. Many of these joined us when we purchased their companies, but in recent years we have also identified a number of strong managers internally. We further expanded our corps of all-stars in an important way when we acquired General Re and EJA.

在伯克希尔,查理和我干的是轻省活儿:除了配置资本,我们几乎无事可做;就连这件事,我们也谈不上多卖力。不过我们有个说得过去的理由:在配置资本上,忙碌与成果并不成正比。事实上,在投资和收购的天地里,手忙脚乱往往适得其反。所以,查理和我主要就是等电话响。

Charlie and I have the easy jobs at Berkshire: We do very little except allocate capital. And, even then, we are not all that energetic. We have one excuse, though: In allocating capital, activity does not correlate with achievement. Indeed, in the fields of investments and acquisitions, frenetic behavior is often counterproductive. Therefore, Charlie and I mainly just wait for the phone to ring.

反倒是我们的经理人干得极卖力——业绩也摆在那儿。理所当然,他们希望付出能换来公平的酬劳,但光靠钱,解释不了他们那些非凡的成就。驱动每个人的,首先是对自家业务能走多远的一幅愿景,以及亲手把它带到那里的那股心气。查理和我谨代表你们,也代表我们自己,向他们道一声谢。

Our managers, however, work very hard -- and it shows. Naturally, they want to be paid fairly for their efforts, but pay alone can't explain their extraordinary accomplishments. Instead, each is primarily motivated by a vision of just how far his or her business can go -- and by a desire to be the one who gets it there. Charlie and I thank them on your behalf and ours.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

关于我们各项业务的更多信息,见第 39–53 页,你还能在那里看到按 GAAP 口径报告的分部收益。此外,在第 65–71 页,我们按非 GAAP 口径,把伯克希尔的财务数据重新划成四个分部,这种呈现方式与查理和我看待公司的角度相吻合。

Additional information about our various businesses is given on pages 39-53, where you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. In addition, on pages 65-71, we have rearranged Berkshire's financial data into four segments on a non-GAAP basis, a presentation that corresponds to the way Charlie and I think about the company.

按惯例,这一节之后本会接着讲“透视盈余”。但由于通用再保险的收购发生在临近年底之际,无论按历史口径还是备考口径计算 1998 年的数字,都已失去意义。透视盈余的计算,我们将在明年的年报中恢复。

Normally, we follow this section with one on "Look-Through" Earnings. Because the General Re acquisition occurred near yearend, though, neither a historical nor a pro-forma calculation of a 1998 number seems relevant. We will resume the look-through calculation in next year's report.

投资

Investments

下面列出我们的普通股投资,市值超过 7.5 亿美元的个股逐一列示。

Below we present our common stock investments. Those with a market value of more than $750 million are itemized.

12/31/98
12/31/98

股份

Shares

公司

Company

成本*

Cost*

市值

Market

(金额单位:百万美元)

(dollars in millions)

50,536,900
50,536,900

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

美国运通公司…………………………

American Express Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$1,470
$ 5,180
200,000,000
$1,470
$ 5,180
200,000,000

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

可口可乐公司…………………………

The Coca-Cola Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1,299
13,400
51,202,242
1,299
13,400
51,202,242

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

华特迪士尼公司………………………

The Walt Disney Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

281
1,536
60,298,000
281
1,536
60,298,000

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

房利美……

Freddie Mac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

308
3,885
96,000,000
308
3,885
96,000,000

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

吉列公司………………………………

The Gillette Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

600
4,590
1,727,765
600
4,590
1,727,765

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

《华盛顿邮报》公司…………………

The Washington Post Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11
999
63,595,180
11
999
63,595,180

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

富国银行公司…………………………

Wells Fargo & Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

392
2,540
392
2,540

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

其他……

Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2,683
5,135
2,683
5,135

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

普通股合计……

Total Common Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 7,044
$ 37,265
$ 7,044
$ 37,265

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  • 指税基成本,合计比 GAAP 成本低 15 亿美元。
  • Represents tax-basis cost which, in aggregate, is $1.5 billion less than GAAP cost.

今年,我们小幅增持了三大重仓之一的美国运通,另外两大重仓则原封未动。不过,对许多较小的仓位,我们做了减持或大幅削减。这里我得坦白一句(唉):1998 年我在投资组合上的这些操作,实际上拉低了当年的收益。尤其是卖掉麦当劳,这个决定错得离谱。总的来说,去年若我在开市时段常常溜去看电影,你们的收益反倒会更好。

During the year, we slightly increased our holdings in American Express, one of our three largest commitments, and left the other two unchanged. However, we trimmed or substantially cut many of our smaller positions. Here, I need to make a confession (ugh): The portfolio actions I took in 1998 actually decrease d our gain for the year. In particular, my decision to sell McDonald's was a very big mistake. Overall, you would have been better off last year if I had regularly snuck off to the movies during market hours.

年末,我们持有超过 150 亿美元的现金等价物(含一年内到期的优质证券)。现金从来不能让我们开怀。但让这笔钱在伯克希尔口袋里烫得慌,总好过它舒舒服服地躺在别人口袋里。查理和我会继续物色大额股权投资,或者更好——一桩能吃下我们流动资产的重大收购。只是眼下,我们在地平线上还看不到任何目标。

At yearend, we held more than $15 billion in cash equivalents (including high-grade securities due in less than one year). Cash never makes us happy. But it's better to have the money burning a hole in Berkshire's pocket than resting comfortably in someone else's. Charlie and I will continue our search for large equity investments or, better yet, a really major business acquisition that would absorb our liquid assets. Currently, however, we see nothing on the horizon.

一旦确定通用再保险的合并铁定成交,我们就要求该公司清掉手中持有的股票。(如前所述,我们不管理科隆再保险的组合,其中包含大量股票。)随后,通用再保险清空了约 250 只普通股的仓位,为此缴了 9.35 亿美元的税。这种“一扫而空”的做法,体现的正是查理和我在经营与投资中奉行的一条基本原则:我们不含含糊糊地倒退着做决定。

Once we knew that the General Re merger would definitely take place, we asked the company to dispose of the equities that it held. (As mentioned earlier, we do not manage the Cologne Re portfolio, which includes many equities.) General Re subsequently eliminated its positions in about 250 common stocks, incurring $935 million of taxes in the process. This "clean sweep" approach reflects a basic principle that Charlie and I employ in business and investing: We don't back into decisions.

去年,我打破了自己不披露投资标的(法律强制要求申报的除外)的一贯做法,向你们讲了我们做的三笔非常规投资。这么披露有几层缘由。其一,监管机构就我们持有的白银头寸提出的问询,让我们觉得,他们希望我们公开承认这笔投资。其二,我们持有的零息债券规模巨大,我们想让股东知道这笔投资对伯克希尔净资产可能造成的影响。其三,我们只是想提醒各位一个事实:我们有时

Last year I deviated from my standard practice of not disclosing our investments (other than those we are legally required to report) and told you about three unconventional investments we had made. There were several reasons behind that disclosure. First, questions about our silver position that we had received from regulatory authorities led us to believe that they wished us to publicly acknowledge this investment. Second, our holdings of zero-coupon bonds were so large that we wanted our owners to know of this investment's potential impact on Berkshire's net worth. Third, we simply wanted to alert you to the fact that we sometimes

也的确会做出非常规的投入。

do make unconventional commitments.

不过,一般情况下——正如第 61 页《所有者手册》所述——我们看不出谈论具体投资动作有何好处。因此,除非我们再度建起一笔特别大的仓位,否则我们不会向各位通报,我们在任何非常规持仓上的具体动向。但我们可以告诉各位,去年提到的某些仓位,我们已经清掉,同时又新添了另外一些。

Normally, however, as discussed in the Owner's Manual on page 61, we see no advantage in talking about specific investment actions. Therefore -- unless we again take a position that is particularly large -- we will not post you as to what we are doing in respect to any specific holding of an unconventional sort. We can report, however, that we have eliminated certain of the positions discussed last year and added certain others.

我们对投资奉行“哪怕说的不实,也绝不评论”的政策,这或许会让“搭便车者”失望,却能让股东获益:我们若把自己正在做的事讲出来,你们的伯克希尔股票就会变得不那么值钱。顺带提醒一句,媒体对我们投资动向的揣测,多数情况下依旧是错的。轻信这类评论的人,后果自负。

Our never-comment-even-if-untrue policy in regard to investments may disappoint "piggybackers" but will benefit owners: Your Berkshire shares would be worth less if we discussed what we are doing. Incidentally, we should warn you that media speculation about our investment moves continues in most cases to be incorrect. People who rely on such commentary do so at their own peril.

会计——第一部分

Accounting -- Part 1

收购通用再保险,让我们看清了会计程序中一个骇人的缺陷。眼尖的股东在读我们的委托书时,大概留意到了第 60 页上一个不寻常的项目。在备考损益表中——它详细说明了如果两家实体在 1997 年就已合并,其合并利润会受到怎样的影响——有一项写明,薪酬费用本会增加 6,300 万美元。

Our General Re acquisition put a spotlight on an egregious flaw in accounting procedure. Sharp-eyed shareholders reading our proxy statement probably noticed an unusual item on page 60. In the pro-forma statement of income -- which detailed how the combined 1997 earnings of the two entities would have been affected by the merger -- there was an item stating that compensation expense would have been increased by $63 million.

我们赶紧补一句,这一项并不是说查理或我的性子起了什么大变化。(他照旧坐经济舱,照旧引用本·富兰克林。)它也不表明通用再保险的会计做法有任何毛病,其账目一直严格遵循 GAAP。相反,这项备考调整之所以出现,是因为我们正用一套现金计划,取代通用再保险实行已久的股票期权计划,把其经理人的激励薪酬与他们的经营成绩挂钩。过去,对这些经理人来说要紧的是通用再保险的股价;如今,他们的回报将来自他们交出的经营业绩。

This item, we hasten to add, does not signal that either Charlie or I have experienced a major personality change. (He still travels coach and quotes Ben Franklin.) Nor does it indicate any shortcoming in General Re's accounting practices, which have followed GAAP to the letter. Instead, the pro-forma adjustment came about because we are replacing General Re's longstanding stock option plan with a cash plan that ties the incentive compensation of General Re managers to their operating achievements. Formerly what counted for these managers was General Re's stock price; now their payoff will come from the business performance they deliver.

新计划与被终止的期权安排在经济上完全对等,也就是说,在给定的业绩水平下,两者带给员工的回报理应相同。只不过,这些人过去指望从新授予的期权中挣到的钱,如今将改为现金支付。(往年已授的期权仍然有效。)

The new plan and the terminated option arrangement have matching economics, which means that the rewards they deliver to employees should, for a given level of performance, be the same. But what these people could have formerly anticipated earning from new option grants will now be paid in cash. (Options granted in past years remain outstanding.)

尽管两套方案在经济上完全对等,我们即将推行的现金方案却会产生截然不同的会计结果。这个“爱丽丝漫游奇境”般的怪象之所以出现,是因为现行会计准则在计算利润时对股票期权的成本视而不见,即便在许多公司,期权已经是一项巨大且不断膨胀的开支。实际上,会计准则给管理层出了一道选择题:用一种形式付薪,就把成本记上;换另一种形式付薪,就可以无视成本。难怪期权的使用会呈爆炸式蔓延。然而,这种一边倒的选择对股东有一个很大的坏处:期权若设计得当,固然可以成为一种合适、甚至理想的高管薪酬与激励方式,但更常见的情形是,它们在分配回报时极度反复无常,作为激励手段又低效,还让股东付出畸高的代价。

Though the two plans are an economic wash, the cash plan we are putting in will produce a vastly different accounting result. This Alice-in-Wonderland outcome occurs because existing accounting principles ignore the cost of stock options when earnings are being calculated, even though options are a huge and increasing expense at a great many corporations. In effect, accounting principles offer management a choice: Pay employees in one form and count the cost, or pay them in another form and ignore the cost. Small wonder then that the use of options has mushroomed. This lop-sided choice has a big downside for owners, however: Though options, if properly structured, can be an appropriate, and even ideal , way to compensate and motivate top managers, they are more often wildly capricious in their distribution of rewards, inefficient as motivators, and inordinately expensive for shareholders.

无论期权本身有何优点,其会计处理都荒唐得令人愤慨。想一想我们今年要在 GEICO 花掉的那 1.9 亿美元广告费。假设我们不付现金,而是拿十年期的、按市价定价的伯克希尔期权去支付给媒体。届时,还会有人张口辩称,伯克希尔没为广告承担任何成本,或不该把这笔成本记进账吗?

Whatever the merits of options may be, their accounting treatment is outrageous. Think for a moment of that $190 million we are going to spend for advertising at GEICO this year. Suppose that instead of paying cash for our ads, we paid the media in ten-year, at-the-market Berkshire options. Would anyone then care to argue that Berkshire had not borne a cost for advertising, or should not be charged this cost on its books?

或许贝克莱主教——你也许记得他,就是那位琢磨“森林里无人时,树倒下有没有声响”的哲学家——会认为,会计师看不见的费用便不存在。可查理和我,实在没法对未入账的成本这般超脱。当我们考虑投资一家发行期权的公司时,会对其报告利润做适当下调,直接减去一笔金额,相当于该公司若把同等数量与结构的期权公开出售所能变现的钱。同样,若我们盘算一桩收购,会把替换其期权计划的成本一并计入评估。之后,一旦成交,我们立刻把这笔成本从暗处拽到明处。

Perhaps Bishop Berkeley -- you may remember him as the philosopher who mused about trees falling in a forest when no one was around -- would believe that an expense unseen by an accountant does not exist. Charlie and I, however, have trouble being philosophical about unrecorded costs. When we consider investing in an option-issuing company, we make an appropriate downward adjustment to reported earnings, simply subtracting an amount equal to what the company could have realized by publicly selling options of like quantity and structure. Similarly, if we contemplate an acquisition, we include in our evaluation the cost of replacing any option plan. Then, if we make a deal, we promptly take that cost out of hiding.

读到此处,不认同我期权看法的读者,此刻大概正在心里跟我争执——我把发给员工的期权成本,等同于那些理论上可以公开出售和交易的期权。诚然,如其中一种说法所言,员工期权有时会作废——这减轻了对股东的损害——而公开发售的期权不会。诚然,员工行使期权时,公司能拿到一笔税收抵扣;公开交易的期权则没有这份好处。但这几点也有抵消的一面:发给员工的期权常被重新定价,这一变动让它比公开的那类昂贵得多。

Readers who disagree with me about options will by this time be mentally quarreling with my equating the cost of options issued to employees with those that might theoretically be sold and traded publicly. It is true, to state one of these arguments, that employee options are sometimes forfeited -- that lessens the damage done to shareholders -- whereas publicly-offered options would not be. It is true, also, that companies receive a tax deduction when employee options are exercised; publicly-traded options deliver no such benefit. But there's an offset to these points: Options issued to employees are often repriced, a transformation that makes them much more costly than the public variety.

有时有人辩称,一份不可转让的员工期权对他的价值,比不上一份他能自由出售的公开交易期权。然而,这一事实丝毫不会降低这份不可转让期权的成本。给员工一辆只能用于特定用途的公司车,会降低它在员工眼中的价值,却半点也削减不了它对雇主的成本。

It's sometimes argued that a non-transferable option given to an employee is less valuable to him than would be a publicly-traded option that he could freely sell. That fact, however, does not reduce the cost of the non-transferable option Giving an employee a company car that can only be used for certain purposes diminishes its value to the employee, but does not in the least diminish its cost to the employer.

近年来,查理和我针对期权所做的盈利调整,常常把报告的每股数字砍掉 5%,砍掉 10% 也并不罕见。有时,这种下调幅度之大,甚至左右了我们的投资组合决策,导致我们要么卖出一只股票,要么放弃一笔本会做的买入。

The earning revisions that Charlie and I have made for options in recent years have frequently cut the reported per-share figures by 5%, with 10% not all that uncommon. On occasion, the downward adjustment has been so great that it has affected our portfolio decisions, causing us either to make a sale or to pass on a stock purchase we might otherwise have made.

几年前,我们曾在这些篇页里问过三个至今没人作答的问题:“如果期权不是一种薪酬,那它是什么?如果薪酬不是一项费用,那它是什么?还有,如果费用不该算进收益的计算,那它到底该往哪儿放?”

A few years ago we asked three questions in these pages to which we have not yet received an answer: "If options aren't a form of compensation, what are they? If compensation isn't an expense, what is it? And, if expenses shouldn't go into the calculation of earnings, where in the world should they go?"

会计——第二部分

Accounting -- Part 2

管理层在股票期权会计问题上扮演的角色,实在算不上良善:令人痛心的是,近年来,为数不少的 CEO 和审计师,都在激烈反对 FASB 用真相取代期权虚构的努力,而几乎没有人站出来为 FASB 说话。反对者甚至拉国会入伙,鼓吹注水的数字符合国家利益。

The role that managements have played in stock-option accounting has hardly been benign: A distressing number of both CEOs and auditors have in recent years bitterly fought FASB's attempts to replace option fiction with truth and virtually none have spoken out in support of FASB. Its opponents even enlisted Congress in the fight, pushing the case that inflated figures were in the national interest.

然而我相信,一旦谈到重组和并购会计,管理层的作为还要更糟。在这些领域,许多管理层蓄意操纵数字、欺骗投资者。正如迈克尔·金斯利谈及华盛顿时所说:“丑闻不在于做了违法的事,而在于那些合法的事。”

Still, I believe that the behavior of managements has been even worse when it comes to restructurings and merger accounting. Here, many managements purposefully work at manipulating numbers and deceiving investors. And, as Michael Kinsley has said about Washington: "The scandal isn't in what's done that's illegal but rather in what's legal ."

从前,要在会计上分清好人坏人相对容易:比如 1960 年代末,掀起了一场狂潮,被某个江湖骗子美其名曰“大胆而富有想象力的会计”(顺带一提,这套把戏一度让他在华尔街备受宠爱,因为他从不辜负预期)。但那个年代的多数投资者,都清楚谁在耍花招。而且值得称道的是,当年美国那些最受敬重的公司,几乎无一沾染欺瞒。

It was once relatively easy to tell the good guys in accounting from the bad: The late 1960's, for example, brought on an orgy of what one charlatan dubbed "bold, imaginative accounting" (the practice of which, incidentally, made him loved for a time by Wall Street because he never missed expectations). But most investors of that period knew who was playing games. And, to their credit, virtually all of America's most-admired companies then shunned deception.

近年来,操守日渐松弛。许多大公司依旧规规矩矩,但为数可观且不断增多的一批原本高尚的经理人——那些你乐意招为儿女配偶、或托付为遗嘱受托人的 CEO——已经转而认定,操纵利润以迎合他们心目中华尔街的期待,没什么不妥。事实上,不少 CEO 觉得这种操纵不仅没什么不妥,反倒是他们的分内之责。

In recent years, probity has eroded. Many major corporations still play things straight, but a significant and growing number of otherwise high-grade managers -- CEOs you would be happy to have as spouses for your children or as trustees under your will -- have come to the view that it's okay to manipulate earnings to satisfy what they believe are Wall Street's desires. Indeed, many CEOs think this kind of manipulation is not only okay, but actually their duty .

这些经理人从一开始就抱着一个相当普遍的假设,认为他们任何时候的职责都是把股价推到尽可能高(这个前提我们坚决不同意)。为了拉抬股价,他们努力追求卓越运营,这令人钦佩。但是,当运营没能产生期望的结果时,这些 CEO 便转而诉诸并不光彩的会计伎俩。这些伎俩要么凭空造出想要的“利润”,要么为将来造出这些利润铺路。

These managers start with the assumption, all too common, that their job at all times is to encourage the highest stock price possible (a premise with which we adamantly disagree). To pump the price, they strive, admirably, for operational excellence. But when operations don't produce the result hoped for, these CEOs resort to unadmirable accounting stratagems. These either manufacture the desired "earnings" or set the stage for them in the future.

为给这种行为找理由,这些经理人常说,如果他们做交易的“货币”——也就是自家股票——没有得到充分定价,股东就会吃亏;他们还辩称,用会计花招凑出想要的数字,不过是随大流罢了。可一旦“人人都这么干”的心态扎下根,道德上的顾虑便烟消云散。我们不妨把这种行为叫作“格雷欣法则之子”:劣质会计驱逐优质会计。

Rationalizing this behavior, these managers often say that their shareholders will be hurt if their currency for doing deals -- that is, their stock -- is not fully-priced, and they also argue that in using accounting shenanigans to get the figures they want, they are only doing what everybody else does. Once such an everybody's-doing-it attitude takes hold, ethical misgivings vanish. Call this behavior Son of Gresham: Bad accounting drives out good.

眼下最时兴的歪曲手法是“重组费用”——这一会计科目当然可以是正当的,但太多时候沦为操纵利润的工具。在这套戏法里,一大笔本该合理分摊到若干年的成本,被一股脑塞进单个季度,而这个季度往往本就注定要让投资者失望。有些情况下,提这笔费用是为了替过去利润上的虚假陈述善后;另一些情况下,则是为将来的虚假陈述铺路。无论哪种,这些费用的金额和时点,都由一套犬儒主义的盘算所支配:华尔街根本不在乎某个季度每股少赚 5 美元,只要这笔亏空能确保今后每个季度的利润,都稳稳超出预期 5 美分。

The distortion du jour is the "restructuring charge," an accounting entry that can, of course, be legitimate but that too often is a device for manipulating earnings. In this bit of legerdemain, a large chunk of costs that should properly be attributed to a number of years is dumped into a single quarter, typically one already fated to disappoint investors. In some cases, the purpose of the charge is to clean up earnings misrepresentations of the past, and in others it is to prepare the ground for future misrepresentations. In either case, the size and timing of these charges is dictated by the cynical proposition that Wall Street will not mind if earnings fall short by $5 per share in a given quarter, just as long as this deficiency ensures that quarterly earnings in the future will consistently exceed expectations by five cents per share.

这种“把一切难看数字都塞进一个季度”的做法,若对应到高尔夫记分上,会催生一种同样“大胆、富有想象力”的打法。一位球手在他赛季第一轮,可以不管自己的真实表现,直接在记分卡上填满惨不忍睹的数字——双柏忌、三柏忌、四柏忌——然后交出一张比如 140 杆的成绩。建好这笔“储备”后,他便去高尔夫用品店,跟教练说想“重组”一下自己那挥杆的瑕疵。接着,他带着新挥杆回到球场,只记打得好的洞,坏的不记。那些旧挥杆留下的烂摊子,则统统冲销到先前建立的“储备”里。这样打完五轮,他的记录会是 140、80、80、80、80,而不是 91、94、89、94、92。在华尔街,人们会无视那个 140 杆——毕竟它出自一套“已停用”的挥杆——并把我们这位英雄归为 80 杆水平的球手(还是个从不让人失望的球手)。

This dump-everything-into-one-quarter behavior suggests a corresponding "bold, imaginative" approach to -- golf scores. In his first round of the season, a golfer should ignore his actual performance and simply fill his card with atrocious numbers -- double, triple, quadruple bogeys -- and then turn in a score of, say, 140. Having established this "reserve," he should go to the golf shop and tell his pro that he wishes to "restructure" his imperfect swing. Next, as he takes his new swing onto the course, he should count his good holes, but not the bad ones. These remnants from his old swing should be charged instead to the reserve established earlier. At the end of five rounds, then, his record will be 140, 80, 80, 80, 80 rather than 91, 94, 89, 94, 92. On Wall Street, they will ignore the 140 -- which, after all, came from a "discontinued" swing -- and will classify our hero as an 80 shooter (and one who never disappoints).

对偏好从一开始就作弊的人,这套策略另有一个变种。这位球手独自打球,身旁是一位配合默契、充当审计师的球童,他把糟糕的洞先按下不记,先交出四张 80 杆的成绩,坦然收下众人对他这份身手与稳定的喝彩,然后再交上第五张记着 140 杆的卡。用这场“大洗澡”把先前记分上的罪过一笔勾销后,他或许会含糊地道几句歉,却绝不会退还之前在会所里靠比成绩赢来的钱。(不必说,那位球童从此有了一位忠实的东家。)

For those who prefer to cheat up front, there would be a variant of this strategy. The golfer, playing alone with a cooperative caddy-auditor, should defer the recording of bad holes, take four 80s, accept the plaudits he gets for such athleticism and consistency, and then turn in a fifth card carrying a 140 score. After rectifying his earlier scorekeeping sins with this "big bath," he may mumble a few apologies but will refrain from returning the sums he has previously collected from comparing scorecards in the clubhouse. (The caddy, need we add, will have acquired a loyal patron.)

不幸的是,现实中那些使用这类记分把戏各种变体的 CEO,往往会对自己玩的这套上瘾——毕竟,在记分卡上做手脚,可比在练习场花几个小时轻松多了——从此再也鼓不起金盆洗手的决心。他们的行径,让人想起伏尔泰对性尝试的那句评语:“一次是哲学家,两次便成了堕落之徒。”

Unfortunately, CEOs who use variations of these scoring schemes in real life tend to become addicted to the games they're playing -- after all, it's easier to fiddle with the scorecard than to spend hours on the practice tee -- and never muster the will to give them up. Their behavior brings to mind Voltaire's comment on sexual experimentation: "Once a philosopher, twice a pervert."

在收购领域,重组已被拔高成一门艺术:管理层如今常借合并之机,不诚实地重新安排资产与负债的价值,好让他们既能平滑又能虚增未来的利润。事实上,到了交易关头,大牌审计师事务所有时还会主动点明,说这里存在施展一点(或大量)会计魔法的机会。得到了这种来自“布道坛”的怂恿,一流的人也常会俯就三流的手段。CEO 们难以拒绝那些经审计师背书、又能增加未来“利润”的策略,这情有可原。

In the acquisition arena, restructuring has been raised to an art form: Managements now frequently use mergers to dishonestly rearrange the value of assets and liabilities in ways that will allow them to both smooth and swell future earnings. Indeed, at deal time, major auditing firms sometimes point out the possibilities for a little accounting magic (or for a lot). Getting this push from the pulpit, first-class people will frequently stoop to third-class tactics. CEOs understandably do not find it easy to reject auditor-blessed strategies that lead to increased future "earnings."

财产-意外险行业的一个例子,能把这里的门道说清楚。当一家财险公司被收购时,买方有时会同时调高其损失准备金,而且常常是大幅调高。这一上调或许只是反映了此前准备金原本就不足——尽管怪就怪在,这类精算上的“顿悟”总跟交易的落笔撞了个满怀。无论如何,这一手为日后随着准备金释放,“利润”顺势流入损益表铺好了路。

An example from the property-casualty insurance industry will illuminate the possibilities. When a p-c company is acquired, the buyer sometimes simultaneously increases its loss reserves, often substantially. This boost may merely reflect the previous inadequacy of reserves -- though it is uncanny how often an actuarial "revelation" of this kind coincides with the inking of a deal. In any case, the move sets up the possibility of 'earnings" flowing into income at some later date, as reserves are released.

伯克希尔与这些做法彻底划清了界限:如果我们注定要让你们失望,我们宁可栽在盈利上,也不愿栽在会计上。在我们所有的收购中,我们对损失准备金数字,都是接手时是什么样就保留什么样。毕竟,我们一直以来都是与那些既谙熟自身业务、财务报告又诚实的保险业经理人携手合作。当一桩交易里负债立即大幅增加时,简单的逻辑便告诉我们:上述两种美德至少缺了一样——或者,另一种可能是,收购方正为日后注入“利润”打地基。

Berkshire has kept entirely clear of these practices: If we are to disappoint you, we would rather it be with our earnings than with our accounting. In all of our acquisitions, we have left the loss reserve figures exactly as we found them. After all, we have consistently joined with insurance managers knowledgeable about their business and honest in their financial reporting. When deals occur in which liabilities are increased immediately and substantially, simple logic says that at least one of those virtues must have been lacking -- or, alternatively, that the acquirer is laying the groundwork for future infusions of "earnings."

讲一个真事,足以说明美国企业界一种再常见不过的心态。两家大银行的 CEO——其中一位做过许多桩收购——不久前进行了一场友好的合并商谈(最终没谈成)。那位老到的收购者正在阐述潜在合并的种种好处,另一位 CEO 却将信将疑地打断他说:“可这样一来,不是得计提一大笔费用吗,说不定高达 10 亿美元?”那位“深谙此道”的人没多费口舌:“我们会把它做得比那还大——我们做这笔交易,图的就是这个。”

Here's a true story that illustrates an all-too-common view in corporate America. The CEOs of two large banks, one of them a man who'd made many acquisitions, were involved not long ago in a friendly merger discussion (which in the end didn't produce a deal). The veteran acquirer was expounding on the merits of the possible combination, only to be skeptically interrupted by the other CEO: "But won't that mean a huge charge," he asked, "perhaps as much as $1 billion?" The "sophisticate" wasted no words: "We'll make it bigger than that -- that's why we're doing the deal."

根据巴尔的摩 R. G. Associates 公司的初步统计,1998 年内已计提或宣布的特殊费用——即重组费用、在研研发费用、并购相关项目和资产减记——共计不少于 1,369 项,合计高达 721 亿美元。这是一个惊人的数字,换个角度便可见一斑:《财富》杂志著名榜单上那 500 家公司,1997 年的利润合计也不过 3,240 亿美元。

A preliminary tally by R. G. Associates, of Baltimore, of special charges taken or announced during 1998 -- that is, charges for restructuring, in-process R&D, merger-related items, and write-downs -- identified no less than 1,369 of these, totaling $72.1 billion. That is a staggering amount as evidenced by this bit of perspective: The 1997 earnings of the 500 companies in Fortune's famous list totaled $324 billion.

显然,如今许多高管对准确报告所持的轻慢态度,是企业界的一大耻辱。而正如我们前文暗示的那样,审计师们在正面发力上,也做得乏善可陈。审计师本该把投资大众当作自己的客户,可他们往往对选择自己、付给自己报酬的经理人们卑躬屈膝。(“吃谁的饭,唱谁的歌。”)

Clearly the attitude of disrespect that many executives have today for accurate reporting is a business disgrace. And auditors, as we have already suggested, have done little on the positive side. Though auditors should regard the investing public as their client, they tend to kowtow instead to the managers who choose them and dole out their pay. ("Whose bread I eat, his song I sing.")

不过有一条大新闻:美国证券交易委员会(SEC)在其主席阿瑟·莱维特(Arthur Levitt)的带领下,似乎下定了决心要让美国企业界洗心革面。在去年 9 月一场里程碑式的演讲中,莱维特呼吁终结“盈余管理”。他准确地指出:“太多的公司经理人、审计师和分析师,都在参与一场互相点头眨眼、心照不宣的游戏。”接着,他抛出了实实在在的控诉:“管理可能正在让位于操纵;诚信可能正在输给幻象。”

A big piece of news, however, is that the SEC, led by its chairman, Arthur Levitt, seems determined to get corporate America to clean up its act. In a landmark speech last September, Levitt called for an end to "earnings management." He correctly observed, "Too many corporate managers, auditors and analysts are participants in a game of nods and winks." And then he laid on a real indictment: "Managing may be giving way to manipulating; integrity may be losing out to illusion."

我力劝各位去读一读主席这篇演讲词(你可以在互联网 www.sec.gov 上找到),并支持他让美国企业界向自己的股东如实相告的努力。莱维特的这项任务将是赫拉克勒斯般的艰巨,但很难再想出还有哪项使命,比它更值得他去担当。

I urge you to read the Chairman's speech (you can find it on the Internet at www.sec.gov) and to support him in his efforts to get corporate America to deliver a straight story to its owners. Levitt's job will be Herculean, but it is hard to think of another more important for him to take on.

呈报股东

Reports to Shareholders

伯克希尔的网站 www.berkshirehathaway.com,已成为获取公司信息的主要来源。虽然我们仍向所有股东寄送年报,但季报现在只寄给主动索取的股东,其他人可以到我们网站上阅读。随本次年报,我们再次附上一张卡片,想在 1999 年收到纸质季报的股东,可将其寄回。

Berkshire's Internet site, www.berkshirehathaway.com, has become a prime source for information about the company. While we continue to send an annual report to all shareholders, we now send quarterlies only to those who request them, letting others read these at our site. In this report, we again enclose a card that can be returned by those wanting to get printed quarterlies in 1999.

查理和我在报告一事上有两个朴素的目标:其一,若换作我们处在你们的位置,我们希望你们提供什么信息,就把同样的信息提供给你们;其二,我们希望伯克希尔的信息能同时抵达你们所有人。互联网大大助我们实现了第二个目标。

Charlie and I have two simple goals in reporting: 1) We want to give you the information that we would wish you to give us if our positions were reversed; and 2) We want to make Berkshire's information accessible to all of you simultaneously. Our ability to reach that second goal is greatly helped by the Internet.

在同一场 9 月演讲的另一段里,阿瑟·莱维特痛斥了他所谓的“选择性披露”。他这番话来得正是时候:如今,许多公司习以为常地以种种方式偏袒华尔街分析师和机构投资者,这些方式常常擦着不公平的边、甚至越过那条线,让绝大多数股东相对于受宠的一小撮人,处于明显的下风。

In another portion of his September speech, Arthur Levitt deplored what he called "selective disclosure." His remarks were timely: Today, many companies matter-of-factly favor Wall Street analysts and institutional investors in a variety of ways that often skirt or cross the line of unfairness. These practices leave the great bulk of shareholders at a distinct disadvantage to a favored class.

在伯克希尔,我们把一位持有一股 B 类股的股东,与我们的大型机构投资者一视同仁。当然,我们热忱欢迎机构成为股东,也确实借通用再保险的合并收获了不少。我们同样希望,这些新股东能发现,我们的所有者手册和年报为他们提供的、关于伯克希尔的洞见与信息,比他们从其他公司通常设有的投资者关系部门那儿所得到的还要多。但若股东或分析师想要的是“盈利指引”之类的东西,我们只会把他们指向我们的公开文件。

At Berkshire, we regard the holder of one share of B stock as the equal of our large institutional investors. We, of course, warmly welcome institutions as owners and have gained a number of them through the General Re merger. We hope also that these new holders find that our owner's manual and annual reports offer them more insights and information about Berkshire than they garner about other companies from the investor relations departments that these corporations typically maintain. But if it is "earnings guidance" or the like that shareholders or analysts seek, we will simply guide them to our public documents.

今年,我们打算在 5 月 14 日、8 月 13 日和 11 月 12 日收盘后,把季度报告发到互联网上。我们还预计在 2000 年 3 月 11 日(周六)把 1999 年年报放上网站,并在大致同一时间寄出纸质版。

This year we plan to post our quarterly reports on the Internet after the close of the market on May 14, August 13, and November 12. We also expect to put the 1999 annual report on our website on Saturday, March 11, 2000, and to mail the print version at roughly the same time.

我们会在网站上第一时间发布新闻稿。这意味着,你不必仰赖媒体报道的转述版本,而是可以在自己的电脑上读到全文。

We promptly post press releases on our website. This means that you do not need to rely on the versions of these reported by the media but can instead read the full text on your computer.

尽管你们的董事长技术水平糟糕透顶,我仍高兴地报告:GEICO、波仙珠宝、喜诗糖果和《布法罗新闻》,如今都已在互联网上做起了可观的生意。我们最近还开始在网站上提供年金产品。这项业务由阿吉特·贾恩一手打造,过去十年,他个人为伯克希尔的经营利润贡献了相当大的一块。当查理和我睡觉时,阿吉特还在苦思为伯克希尔增值的新法子。

Despite the pathetic technical skills of your Chairman, I'm delighted to report that GEICO, Borsheim's, See's, and The Buffalo News are now doing substantial business via the Internet. We've also recently begun to offer annuity products on our website. This business was developed by Ajit Jain, who over the last decade has personally accounted for a significant portion of Berkshire's operating earnings. While Charlie and I sleep, Ajit keeps thinking of new ways to add value to Berkshire.

股东指定捐赠

Shareholder-Designated Contributions

在伯克希尔 1998 年的股东指定捐赠计划中,约 97.5% 符合条件的股份参与其中,捐赠总额达 1,690 万美元。该计划的完整说明,见第 54–55 页。

About 97.5% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 1998 shareholder-designated contributions program, with contributions totaling $16.9 million. A full description of the program appears on pages 54-55.

计划实施 18 年来,伯克希尔按股东的指示累计捐出 1.3 亿美元。伯克希尔其余的捐赠,由旗下子公司完成,它们沿袭着被收购前的慈善章法(唯一的例外是,原所有者亲自扛起自己个人慈善的担子)。合起来,我们的子公司 1998 年共捐出 1,250 万美元,其中含 200 万美元的实物捐赠。

Cumulatively, over the 18 years of the program, Berkshire has made contributions of $130 million pursuant to the instructions of our shareholders. The rest of Berkshire's giving is done by our subsidiaries, which stick to the philanthropic patterns that prevailed before they were acquired (except that their former owners themselves take on the responsibility for their personal charities). In aggregate, our subsidiaries made contributions of $12.5 million in 1998, including in-kind donations of $2.0 million.

要参与今后的捐赠计划,你持有的 A 类股必须登记在实际所有者名下,而非券商、银行或存管机构的名义人名下。凡在 1999 年 8 月 31 日尚未如此登记的股份,将无缘 1999 年的计划。收到我们寄来的捐赠表格后,请尽快寄回,以免被搁在一边或遗忘。过了截止日期收到的指定,恕不受理。

To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 1999, will be ineligible for the 1999 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten. Designations received after the due date will not be honored.

股东大会

The Annual Meeting

今年这场“资本家的伍德斯托克”将于 5 月 1 至 3 日举行,我们可能面临一个问题。去年,超过 10,000 人参加了我们的股东大会,此后股东名单又翻了一番,所以我们不太确定今年会有多少人到场。为稳妥起见,我们同时预订了可容纳约 14,000 人的阿克萨本体育馆,以及可再容纳 5,000 人的假日会议中心。我们知道奥马哈本地的股东会想当好外地来客(其中不少来自美国境外)的东道主,因此计划先让这些外地股东优先领取阿克萨本的门票,余下的再按先到先得的原则分配给大奥马哈地区的居民。如果阿克萨本的门票发完,我们将开始向奥马哈股东发放假日会议中心的门票。

This year's Woodstock for Capitalists will be held May 1-3, and we may face a problem. Last year more than 10,000 people attended our annual meeting, and our shareholders list has since doubled. So we don't quite know what attendance to expect this year. To be safe, we have booked both Aksarben Coliseum, which holds about 14,000 and the Holiday Convention Centre, which can seat an additional 5,000. Because we know that our Omaha shareholders will want to be good hosts to the out-of-towners (many of them come from outside the U.S), we plan to give those visitors first crack at the Aksarben tickets and to subsequently allocate these to greater Omaha residents on a first-come, first-served basis. If we exhaust the Aksarben tickets, we will begin distributing Holiday tickets to Omaha shareholders.

如果最终两处场地都要使用,查理和我会将会前时间分摊到两边。此外,两处场地都会设有展台,以及伯克希尔影片、大屏幕电视和麦克风。午餐休息时,许多人会离开阿克萨本,这样一来,假日中心那边的人如果愿意,可以花五分钟赶到阿克萨本,在那里度过下午的剩余时间。没有私家车的人,可以乘坐我们准备的巴士往返。

If we end up using both locations, Charlie and I will split our pre-meeting time between the two. Additionally, we will have exhibits and also the Berkshire movie, large television screens and microphones at both sites. When we break for lunch, many attendees will leave Aksarben, which means that those at Holiday can, if they wish, make the five-minute trip to Aksarben and finish out the day there. Buses will be available to transport people who don't have cars.

两处场地的大门都在周一早上 7 点开启,8 点 30 分,我们将首映由首席财务官马克·汉堡制作的 1999 年伯克希尔电影巨制。大会从 9 点 30 分持续到下午 3 点 30 分,中间只有短暂的午休时间。

The doors will open at both locations at 7 a.m. on Monday, and at 8:30 we will premier the 1999 Berkshire movie epic, produced by Marc Hamburg, our CFO. The meeting will last from 9:30 until 3:30, interrupted only by the short lunch break.

随本报告附上的代理材料中有一份附件,说明如何领取入场及参加其他活动所需的证件。至于机票、酒店和租车预订,我们再次签约美国运通(800-799-6634),为您提供专门协助。按照惯例,我们会安排巴士从各大酒店接送至会场。散会后,这些巴士将返回各酒店,并开往内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝和机场。即便如此,您可能还是会觉得有辆车更方便。

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the badge you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. In our normal fashion, we will run buses from the larger hotels to the meeting. After the meeting, these will make trips back to the hotels and to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim's and the airport. Even so, you are likely to find a car useful.

伯克希尔的全线产品将在阿克萨本销售,较受欢迎的品类在假日中心也有。去年,我们各品类销量全面刷新纪录:卖出 3,700 磅喜诗糖果、1,635 双 Dexter 鞋、1,150 套 Quikut 刀具,以及 3,104 件伯克希尔衬衫和帽子。此外,还售出价值 26,944 美元的《世界百科全书》产品,以及超过 2,000 个印有伯克希尔·哈撒韦标志的高尔夫球。对这些数字,查理和我感到满意但并不满足,并充满信心地预测今年所有品类都将再创新高。我们 1999 年的服饰系列将在大会上揭幕,所以请暂缓您的设计师采购计划,等看过我们的系列再说。

The full line of Berkshire products will be available at Aksarben, and the more popular items will also be at Holiday. Last year we set sales records across-the-board, moving 3,700 pounds of See's candy, 1,635 pairs of Dexter shoes, 1,150 sets of Quikut knives and 3,104 Berkshire shirts and hats. Additionally, $26,944 of World Book products were purchased as well as more than 2,000 golf balls with the Berkshire Hathaway logo. Charlie and I are pleased but not satisfied with these numbers and confidently predict new records in all categories this year. Our 1999 apparel line will be unveiled at the meeting, so please defer your designer purchases until you view our collection.

冰雪皇后也会到场,并将再次把全部收入捐给儿童奇迹网络。去年我们卖出了约 4,000 支迪利®雪糕、软糖雪糕和香草/橙味雪糕。此外,GEICO 将设立一个展台,由我们来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇,随时为您提供车险报价。在几乎所有情况下,GEICO 都能为您提供一份特别的股东折扣。来看看我们能否为您省下一些钱。

Dairy Queen will also be on hand and will again donate all proceeds to the Children's Miracle Network. Last year we sold about 4,000 Dilly ® bars, fudge bars and vanilla/orange bars. Additionally, GEICO will have a booth that will be manned by a number of our top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In almost all cases, GEICO will be able to offer you a special shareholder's discount. Check out whether we can save you some money.

我们这场独家展销会的压轴之作,是一节 79 英尺长、近 12 英尺宽、内饰齐全的波音 737 公务机(“BBJ”)客舱,这是 NetJets 的最新产品。这架飞机航程达 14 小时,设计载客 19 人,配有一间卧室、一间办公室和两个淋浴间。向分时产权机主的交付将于 2000 年第一季度开始。

The piece de resistance of our one-company trade show will be a 79-foot-long, nearly 12-foot-wide, fully-outfitted cabin of a 737 Boeing Business Jet ("BBJ"), which is NetJets' newest product. This plane has a 14-hour range; is designed to carry 19 passengers; and offers a bedroom, an office, and two showers. Deliveries to fractional owners will begin in the first quarter of 2000.

BBJ 将于 5 月 1 至 3 日停放在阿克萨本大厅入口附近,供您参观。如果您选在周六或周日去,应该能把等候时间降到最短。别忘了带上支票本,万一您一时冲动想买下它呢。

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The BBJ will be available for your inspection on May 1-3 near the entrance to the Aksarben hall. You should be able to minimize your wait by making your visit on Saturday or Sunday. Bring along your checkbook in case you decide to make an impulse purchase.

内布拉斯加家具城的多层卖场,坐落于离阿克萨本约一英里的 75 英亩场地上,工作日营业时间为上午 10 点到晚上 9 点,周六周日为上午 10 点到下午 6 点。这家卖场 1998 年营业额达 3 亿美元,商品种类之丰富无与伦比——家具、电子产品、家电、地毯和电脑——而且价格低到无可匹敌。4 月 30 日至 5 月 4 日期间,出示股东大会胸卡的股东将享受通常只对员工开放的折扣。

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NFM's multi-stored complex, located on a 75-acre site about a mile from Aksarben, is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays. This operation did $300 million in business during 1998 and offers an unrivaled breadth of merchandise -- furniture, electronics, appliances, carpets and computers -- all at can't-be-beat prices. During the April 30th to May 4th period, shareholders presenting their meeting badge will receive a discount that is customarily given only to its employees.

波仙珠宝平日周日不营业,但 5 月 2 日将为股东们从上午 10 点开到下午 6 点。去年大会那个周末,这家店做了一笔惊人的生意:销售额比前一年翻了一番,而周日单日的成交量,更是远超波仙历史上任何一天。查理把这项纪录归功于自己那天在销售小票上的亲笔签名;我虽对这一说法半信半疑,却也不打算去动一套正在奏效的路数。就让他签到手抽筋吧。去年那个周日,波仙在营业的八小时里开出 2,501 张小票。给数学不太好的诸位换算一下:那是每 11 秒开出一张。

Borsheim's normally is closed on Sunday but will be open for shareholders from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on May 2nd. On annual meeting weekend last year, the store did an incredible amount of business. Sales were double those of the previous year, and the store's volume on Sunday greatly exceeded volume for any day in Borsheim's history. Charlie attributes this record to the fact that he autographed sales tickets that day and, while I have my doubts about this proposition, we are not about to mess with a winning formula. Please give him writer's cramp. On last year's Sunday, Borsheim's wrote 2,501 tickets during the eight hours it was open. For those of you who are mathematically challenged, that is one ticket every 11 seconds.

想避开周日人潮的股东,可以改在周六(上午 10 点至下午 5:30)或周一(上午 10 点至晚上 8 点)光顾波仙。记得亮明自己伯克希尔股东的身份,好让波仙的 CEO 苏珊·雅克给你报一个“股东周末”的价。苏珊 1983 年加入我们时,是个时薪 4 美元的售货员,1994 年被提拔为 CEO。这一步,称得上我最出色的用人决定之一。

Shareholders who wish to avoid Sunday's crowd can visit Borsheim's on Saturday (10 a.m.-5:30 p.m.) or on Monday (10 a.m.-8 p.m.). Be sure to identify yourself as a Berkshire owner so that Susan Jacques, Borsheim's CEO, can quote you a "shareholder-weekend" price. Susan joined us in 1983 as a $4-per-hour salesperson and was made CEO in 1994. This move ranks as one of my best managerial decisions.

桥牌迷们周日将迎来一桩乐事:史上最强的桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼(Bob Hamman)将现身波仙店外的商场,与我们的股东们对局。鲍勃打牌从不理牌——嘿,说不定这正是我牌技糟糕的症结。我们还会另摆几张牌桌,由一两位别的高手坐镇。

Bridge players can look forward to a thrill on Sunday, when Bob Hamman -- the best the game has ever seen -- will turn up to play with our shareholders in the mall outside of Borsheim's. Bob plays without sorting his cards -- hey, maybe that's what's wrong with my game. We will also have a couple of other tables at which another expert or two will be playing.

戈拉特牛排馆——我的最爱——将在大会前的周日晚上,再次专为伯克希尔股东开放。去年戈拉特从下午 4 点一直营业到凌晨 1 点左右,可店里还是忙得团团转,害得一些股东干等,很不舒坦。今年接受的预订将减少,也请你别在周日不预订就贸然登门。往年,不少股东选在周五、周六或周一去戈拉特。你可从 4 月 1 日起预订(但不得提前),

Gorat's -- my favorite steakhouse -- will again be open especially for Berkshire shareholders on the Sunday night before the meeting. Though Gorat's served from 4 p.m. until about 1 a.m. last year, its crew was swamped, and some of our shareholders had an uncomfortable wait. This year fewer reservations will be accepted, and we ask that you don't come on Sunday without a reservation. In other years, many of our shareholders have chosen to visit Gorat's on Friday, Saturday or Monday. You can make reservations beginning on April 1 (but not before)

电话 402-551-3733。行家们仍会点上稀有的 T 骨牛排,外加双份土豆煎饼。

by calling 402-551-3733. The cognoscenti will continue to order rare T-bones with double orders of hash browns.

奥马哈金刺队(原名奥马哈皇家队)将于 5 月 1 日周六晚,在罗森布拉特球场迎战爱荷华小熊队。去年,你们的董事长凭一记让全场哗然的曲线球登上投手丘,今年他将再度上阵。今年,我打算亮出我的“飘忽球”。让我颇为光火的是,许多人把我们的股东大会当成一场财经盛事,而不是我心目中的体育经典。等世人见识了我的飘忽球,这份误解便会烟消云散。

The Omaha Golden Spikes (neé the Omaha Royals) will meet the Iowa Cubs on Saturday evening, May 1st, at Rosenblatt Stadium. Your Chairman, whose breaking ball had the crowd buzzing last year, will again take the mound. This year I plan to introduce my "flutterball." It's a real source of irritation to me that many view our annual meeting as a financial event rather than the sports classic I consider it to be. Once the world sees my flutterball, that misperception will be erased.

我们的委托书里,附有领取球赛门票的说明,以及大量能助你玩得尽兴的其他信息。我要特别力邀那 6 万名随通用再保险合并而加入我们的股东前来。来见见你们的同道资本家们。

Our proxy statement includes instructions about obtaining tickets to the game and also a large quantity of other information that should help you to enjoy your visit. I particularly urge the 60,000 shareholders that we gained through the Gen Re merger to join us. Come and meet your fellow capitalists.

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若不提一提在伯克希尔总部与我共事的那 11.8 个人,就此收笔便不地道。除了打理拥有几十家企业所带来的、数不清的税务、监管和行政事务,这个团队还高效而愉快地操办着各类专项事宜,其中一些会招来数百通问询。下面是 1998 年发生的几桩事:

It wouldn't be right to close without a word about the 11.8 people who work with me in Berkshire's corporate office. In addition to handling the myriad of tax, regulatory and administrative matters that come with owning dozens of businesses, this group efficiently and cheerfully manages various special projects, some of which generate hundreds of inquiries. Here's a sample of what went on in 1998:

6,106 位股东,指定了 3,880 家慈善机构来接收捐款。

6,106 shareholders designated 3,880 charities to receive contributions.

凯莉·穆克莫尔经手了约 17,500 张股东大会的入场券,外加 3,200 张棒球赛门票的订单与支票。

Kelly Muchemore processed about 17,500 admission tickets for the annual meeting, along with orders and checks for 3,200 baseball tickets.

凯莉和马克·汉堡一手策划并执导了阿克萨本那场盛会,这活儿要求他们协调各子公司的展示、备好我们的影片,有时还得搭把手,替人张罗行程和住宿。

Kelly and Marc Hamburg produced and directed the Aksarben extravaganza, a job that required them to arrange the presentations made by our subsidiaries, prepare our movie, and sometimes lend people a hand with travel and lodging.

黛比·博萨内克满足了报道大会的 46 家媒体机构(其中 13 家来自美国境外)林林总总的需求,同时一如既往,在我工作的方方面面娴熟地为我打点。

Debbie Bosanek satisfied the varying needs of the 46 media organizations (13 of them non-U.S.) that covered the meeting, and meanwhile, as always, skillfully assisted me in every aspect of my job.

黛比和马克为我们的年报整理了数据,并统筹了 16.5 万份年报的制作与分发。(今年这个数字将是 32.5 万份。)

Debbie and Marc assembled the data for our annual report and oversaw the production and distribution of 165,000 copies. (This year the number will be 325,000.)

在我们完成两项重大并购的过程中,马克负责了 95% 的细节事务——以及大部分实质内容。

Marc handled 95% of the details -- and much of the substance -- connected with our completing two major mergers.

凯莉、黛比和黛布·雷高效处理了经由办公室涌来的、数以万计索取年报和财务信息的请求。

Kelly, Debbie and Deb Ray dealt efficiently with tens of thousands of requests for annual reports and financial information that came through the office.

你我支付的薪酬只相当于 11.8 个人的成本,但我们获得的工作产出,在大多数地方恐怕需要 100 个人才能完成。对这 11.8 位,我深表感谢。

You and I are paying for only 11.8 people, but we are getting what would at most places be the output of 100. To all of the 11.8, my thanks.

1999 年 3 月 1 日

March 1, 1999

沃伦·E·巴菲特

Warren E. Buffett

董事会主席

Chairman of the Board