1999 年致股东信
董事长致股东的信 - 1999
Chairman's Letter - 1999
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
1999 年,我们的净资产增加了 3.58 亿美元,A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值均因此增长 0.5%。过去 35 年(即现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增长到 37,987 美元,年复合增长率为 24.0%。*
Our gain in net worth during 1999 was $358 million, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 0.5%. Over the last 35 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $37,987, a rate of 24.0% compounded annually. *
- 本报告使用的全部数据均对应伯克希尔 A 股,即公司 1996 年以前唯一流通在外股票的后继股票。B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的三十分之一。
- All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire's A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.
对面页的数字表明,我们 1999 年的业绩有多糟糕。这是我任内绝对表现最差的一年,相比标普 500 指数的相对表现也是最差的一年。我们在意的是相对业绩:时间一长,糟糕的相对数字势必带来不理想的绝对结果。
The numbers on the facing page show just how poor our 1999 record was. We had the worst absolute performance of my tenure and, compared to the S&P, the worst relative performance as well. Relative results are what concern us: Over time, bad relative numbers will produce unsatisfactory absolute results.
就连克鲁索探长也能一眼找出今年的罪魁祸首:你们的董事长。我的表现让我想起一个四分卫,成绩单上四科不及格、一科勉强及格,却偏偏遇上一位善解人意的教练。“孩子,”教练慢条斯理地说,“我觉得你在那门课上花的时间太多了。”
Even Inspector Clouseau could find last year's guilty party: your Chairman. My performance reminds me of the quarterback whose report card showed four Fs and a D but who nonetheless had an understanding coach. "Son," he drawled, "I think you're spending too much time on that one subject."
我的那门“课”就是资本配置,而 1999 年我的得分肯定只能是 D。这一年对我们伤害最大的是伯克希尔股票投资组合的糟糕表现——除 GEICO 的卢·辛普森管理的那一小部分外,这个组合的责任全都在我。我们几家最大的重仓股 1999 年严重跑输市场,因为它们的经营业绩令人失望。我们依然看好这些生意,也乐于对它们保持重仓投资。但它们去年的踉跄确实损害了我们的业绩,而且它们能否很快重整旗鼓,也没有任何保证。
My "one subject" is capital allocation, and my grade for 1999 most assuredly is a D. What most hurt us during the year was the inferior performance of Berkshire's equity portfolio -- and responsibility for that portfolio, leaving aside the small piece of it run by Lou Simpson of GEICO, is entirely mine. Several of our largest investees badly lagged the market in 1999 because they've had disappointing operating results. We still like these businesses and are content to have major investments in them. But their stumbles damaged our performance last year, and it's no sure thing that they will quickly regain their stride.
1999 年业绩疲软带来的后果是,我们的股价跌幅甚至更大。稍微往回看一点,1998 年股价跑赢了业务;去年,业务的表现远胜于股价,这一背离一直持续到撰写这封信的今天。当然,随着时间的推移,股价的表现终归要大致跟上业务的表现。
The fallout from our weak results in 1999 was a more-than-commensurate drop in our stock price. In 1998, to go back a bit, the stock outperformed the business. Last year the business did much better than the stock, a divergence that has continued to the date of this letter. Over time, of course, the performance of the stock must roughly match the performance of the business.
尽管去年业绩不佳,伯克希尔副董事长兼我的搭档查理·芒格和我依然预计,未来十年伯克希尔内在价值的增幅将小幅超过持有标普 500 指数的回报。当然,我们无法对此做出保证。但我们愿意用自己的钱来为这一信念下注。再重复一个你们以前听过的事实:我个人净资产的 99% 以上都在伯克希尔。我和妻子从未卖过一股伯克希尔股票——只要我们的支票还能兑付——我们也不打算卖出。
Despite our poor showing last year, Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman and my partner, and I expect that the gain in Berkshire's intrinsic value over the next decade will modestly exceed the gain from owning the S&P. We can't guarantee that, of course. But we are willing to back our conviction with our own money. To repeat a fact you've heard before, well over 99% of my net worth resides in Berkshire. Neither my wife nor I have ever sold a share of Berkshire and -- unless our checks stop clearing -- we have no intention of doing so.
请注意,我说的是希望“小幅”跑赢标普 500 指数。对伯克希尔来说,真正大幅超越该指数已成往事。当年之所以能做到,是因为那时我们无论是买企业还是买股票,价格都远比现在有吸引力,同时也因为我们当时的资本规模小得多,能考虑的投资机会范围远比今天广阔。
Please note that I spoke of hoping to beat the S&P "modestly." For Berkshire, truly large superiorities over that index are a thing of the past. They existed then because we could buy both businesses and stocks at far more attractive prices than we can now, and also because we then had a much smaller capital base, a situation that allowed us to consider a much wider range of investment opportunities than are available to us today.
我们对伯克希尔业绩的乐观情绪,也受到另一层预期的抑制——在我们看来,这几乎是板上钉钉的事——未来一二十年,标普 500 指数的表现将远不如 1982 年以来那样好。《财富》杂志最近有篇文章阐述了我为何认为这不可避免的观点,我随本报告附上一篇。
Our optimism about Berkshire's performance is also tempered by the expectation -- indeed, in our minds, the virtual certainty -- that the S&P will do far less well in the next decade or two than it has done since 1982. A recent article in Fortune expressed my views as to why this is inevitable, and I'm enclosing a copy with this report.
我们的目标是经营好现有业务——由于我们有一批出色的经理人在位,这项任务并不难——并收购更多在经济特征和经理人品质上都与我们已有公司相媲美的企业。1999 年,我们在这方面取得了重要进展,收购了乔丹家具公司,并签约收购中美能源公司的大部分股权。这两家公司我们稍后会在报告中详谈,但这里我先强调一点:这两笔收购都是用现金完成的,没有增发任何伯克希尔股票。这样的交易并非总能实现,但这是查理和我极其偏爱的收购方式。
Our goal is to run our present businesses well -- a task made easy because of the outstanding managers we have in place -- and to acquire additional businesses having economic characteristics and managers comparable to those we already own. We made important progress in this respect during 1999 by acquiring Jordan's Furniture and contracting to buy a major portion of MidAmerican Energy. We will talk more about these companies later in the report but let me emphasize one point here: We bought both for cash, issuing no Berkshire shares. Deals of that kind aren't always possible, but that is the method of acquisition that Charlie and I vastly prefer.
内在价值估算指南
Guides to Intrinsic Value
在信中,我经常谈到内在价值,这是我们在收购企业和买入普通股时使用的一项关键指标,尽管它远谈不上精确。(关于这一指标,以及其他投资和会计术语与概念的详细讨论,请参阅第 55 页至 62 页的《股东手册》,内在价值在第 60 页讨论。)
I often talk in these pages about intrinsic value, a key, though far from precise, measurement we utilize in our acquisitions of businesses and common stocks. (For an extensive discussion of this, and other investment and accounting terms and concepts, please refer to our Owner's Manual on pages 55 - 62. Intrinsic value is discussed on page 60.)
在之前四份年报中,我们都提供了一张我们认为有助于估算伯克希尔内在价值的表格。以下便是该表的更新版,我们追踪了价值的两个关键组成部分。第一列是我们每股持有的投资(包括现金及等价物,但不包括金融产品业务持有的资产);第二列是伯克希尔各项经营业务在扣除所有利息和公司费用、但未计所得税和购买法调整(在第 61 页讨论)之前的每股利润。第二列未纳入我们从第一列所示投资中获得的任何股息、利息和资本利得。实际上,这两列展示的是:如果把伯克希尔一分为二,一个实体持有我们的投资组合,另一个实体经营我们所有的业务并承担全部公司费用,公司会是什么样子。
In our last four reports, we have furnished you a table that we regard as useful in estimating Berkshire's intrinsic value. In the updated version of that table, which follows, we trace two key components of value. The first column lists our per-share ownership of investments (including cash and equivalents but excluding assets held in our financial products operation) and the second column shows our per-share earnings from Berkshire's operating businesses before taxes and purchase-accounting adjustments (discussed on page 61), but after all interest and corporate expenses. The second column excludes all dividends, interest and capital gains that we realized from the investments presented in the first column. In effect, the columns show how Berkshire would look if it were split into two parts, with one entity holding our investments and the other operating all of our businesses and bearing all corporate costs.
税前利润
Pre-tax Earnings
每股(亏损)
(Loss) Per Share
投资
Investments
含投资全部收入
With All Income from
年份
Year
每股
Per Share
扣除投资
Investments Excluded
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1969
$ 45 $ 4.39 1979
577 13.07 1989
7,200 108.86 1999
47,339 (458.55)
1969 $ 45 $ 4.39 1979 577 13.07 1989 7,200 108.86 1999 47,339 (458.55)
以下是这两个板块按十年划分的增长率:
Here are the growth rates of the two segments by decade:
每股税前收益
Pre-tax Earnings Per Share
投资
Investments
含投资全部收入
With All Income from
截至该十年末
Decade Ending
每股
Per Share
扣除投资
Investments Excluded
1979
29.0% 11.5% 1989
28.7% 23.6% 1999
20.7%
1979 29.0% 11.5% 1989 28.7% 23.6% 1999 20.7%
N.A.
N.A.
1969-1999 年年度增长率
Annual Growth Rate, 1969-1999 .................
25.4%
25.4%
N.A.
N.A.
1999 年,我们的每股投资几乎没什么变化,但经营利润却因若干负面因素压倒了原本强劲的正面业绩,一落千丈。负责经营的经理们大多该得 A:他们交出了漂亮的业绩,还进一步拉大了旗下企业内在价值与资产负债表上所列账面价值之间的差距。但抵消这一切的,是通用再保险一笔巨额的——我相信也是反常的——承保亏损。此外,GEICO 的承保利润也如我们此前预料的那样下滑。不过 GEICO 的整体表现依旧出色,甚至超越了我制定的雄心勃勃的目标。
In 1999, our per-share investments changed very little, but our operating earnings, affected by negatives that overwhelmed some strong positives, fell apart. Most of our operating managers deserve a grade of A for delivering fine results and for having widened the difference between the intrinsic value of their businesses and the value at which these are carried on our balance sheet. But, offsetting this, we had a huge -- and, I believe, aberrational -- underwriting loss at General Re. Additionally, GEICO's underwriting profit fell, as we had predicted it would. GEICO's overall performance, though, was terrific, outstripping my ambitious goals.
今年,我们并不指望承保利润会有什么戏剧性的改善。GEICO 的内在价值应会以令人相当满意的幅度增长,但它的承保表现几乎肯定会走弱。原因有二:一是整个汽车保险行业 2000 年会更差,二是我们要大幅加码营销开支。在通用再保险,我们正在提价,只要 2000 年不出特大灾难,它的承保亏损应能明显收窄。不过,提价的全部效果要过一阵子才显现,所以通用再保险今年很可能又是承保不理想的一年。
We do not expect our underwriting earnings to improve in any dramatic way this year. Though GEICO's intrinsic value should grow by a highly satisfying amount, its underwriting performance is almost certain to weaken. That's because auto insurers, as a group, will do worse in 2000, and because we will materially increase our marketing expenditures. At General Re, we are raising rates and, if there is no mega-catastrophe in 2000, the company's underwriting loss should fall considerably. It takes some time, however, for the full effect of rate increases to kick in, and General Re is therefore likely to have another unsatisfactory underwriting year.
有一点你该知道:有一个因素始终在拉大内在价值与账面价值的差距,那就是我们每年从利润中计提的商誉摊销——目前每年大约 5 亿美元。这笔计提减少了我们列在资产项下的商誉,也相应压低了账面价值。它纯粹是个会计问题,与真正的经济商誉毫不相干——经济商誉在多数年份是增长的。可即便经济商誉一动不动,每年的摊销也会不断把内在价值与账面价值的口子越撑越大。
You should be aware that one item regularly working to widen the amount by which intrinsic value exceeds book value is the annual charge against income we take for amortization of goodwill -- an amount now running about $500 million. This charge reduces the amount of goodwill we show as an asset and likewise the amount that is included in our book value. This is an accounting matter having nothing to do with true economic goodwill, which increases in most years. But even if economic goodwill were to remain constant, the annual amortization charge would persistently widen the gap between intrinsic value and book value.
虽然伯克希尔的内在价值我们既给不出精确数字,连一个近似值也报不出,但查理和我可以向各位保证:它远远超过我们 578 亿美元的账面价值。像喜诗糖果和《布法罗新闻》这样的企业,如今的价值已是账面所记的十五到二十倍。我们的目标,就是在所有子公司身上把这道差距持续拉大。
Though we can't give you a precise figure for Berkshire's intrinsic value, or even an approximation, Charlie and I can assure you that it far exceeds our $57.8 billion book value. Businesses such as See's and Buffalo News are now worth fifteen to twenty times the value at which they are carried on our books. Our goal is to continually widen this spread at all subsidiaries.
一个你在别处永远读不到的管理故事
A Managerial Story You Will Never Read Elsewhere
伯克希尔这批经理人,在好几个重要方面都不寻常。举个例子:其中很高比例的人早已财务自由,靠自己经营的这门生意攒下了身家。他们干活,既不是缺钱,也不是合同逼的——伯克希尔根本没有合同。他们之所以起早贪黑地拼,是因为真心热爱自己的生意。“自己的”三个字我是有意用的,因为这些经理人是真正说了算的人——奥马哈这边没有作秀式的汇报会,没有要总部批的预算,也没有关于资本开支的一纸指令。我们只是请他们把公司当成自家唯一的资产来打理,而且往后一百年也会如此。
Berkshire's collection of managers is unusual in several important ways. As one example, a very high percentage of these men and women are independently wealthy, having made fortunes in the businesses that they run. They work neither because they need the money nor because they are contractually obligated to -- we have no contracts at Berkshire. Rather, they work long and hard because they love their businesses. And I use the word "their" advisedly, since these managers are truly in charge -- there are no show-and-tell presentations in Omaha, no budgets to be approved by headquarters, no dictums issued about capital expenditures. We simply ask our managers to run their companies as if these are the sole asset of their families and will remain so for the next century.
查理和我对待旗下经理人的方式,和我们对待伯克希尔股东的方式一模一样:换作我们站在对方的位置,希望被怎么对待,就怎么对待他们。“工作”对我在钱上毫无意义,可我就是喜欢在伯克希尔干活,道理很简单——它给我成就感,让我能按自己的判断放手去做,还能每天和一群我喜欢又信得过的人打交道。我们这些经理人个个都是自家行当里的高手,凭什么会有别的想法?
Charlie and I try to behave with our managers just as we attempt to behave with Berkshire's shareholders, treating both groups as we would wish to be treated if our positions were reversed. Though "working" means nothing to me financially, I love doing it at Berkshire for some simple reasons: It gives me a sense of achievement, a freedom to act as I see fit and an opportunity to interact daily with people I like and trust. Why should our managers -- accomplished artists at what they do -- see things differently?
在与伯克希尔打交道时,我们的经理人常常像是在践行肯尼迪总统那句名言:“不要问国家能为你做什么,先问你能为国家做什么。”去年就有一个精彩的例子,主角是 R. C. 威利——犹他州家居零售的霸主,伯克希尔 1995 年从比尔·蔡尔德及其家族手里买下。比尔和他大多数经理人都是摩门教徒,因此 R. C. 威利的门店从不在周日营业。这门生意这么做相当吃亏:周日恰恰是许多顾客最爱逛店的日子。可比尔硬是守住了自己的原则——就这么守着,他把公司从 1954 年接手时 25 万美元的年销售额,一路做到了 1999 年的 3.42 亿美元。
In their relations with Berkshire, our managers often appear to be hewing to President Kennedy's charge, "Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country." Here's a remarkable story from last year: It's about R. C. Willey, Utah's dominant home furnishing business, which Berkshire purchased from Bill Child and his family in 1995. Bill and most of his managers are Mormons, and for this reason R. C. Willey's stores have never operated on Sunday. This is a difficult way to do business: Sunday is the favorite shopping day for many customers. Bill, nonetheless, stuck to his principles -- and while doing so built his business from $250,000 of annual sales in 1954, when he took over, to $342 million in 1999.
比尔认定 R. C. 威利在犹他州以外照样能做成,1997 年便提议我们在博伊西开一家店。要把“周日不开门”的规矩带进一片陌生市场,去硬碰那些一周七天全开的老牌对手,我心里很没底。但这毕竟是比尔的生意、由他来经营,所以尽管我有保留,还是让他按自己的商业判断和宗教信念放手去干。
Bill felt that R. C. Willey could operate successfully in markets outside of Utah and in 1997 suggested that we open a store in Boise. I was highly skeptical about taking a no-Sunday policy into a new territory where we would be up against entrenched rivals open seven days a week. Nevertheless, this was Bill's business to run. So, despite my reservations, I told him to follow both his business judgment and his religious convictions.
接着,比尔提出了一个非同寻常的方案:他将以个人名义买下土地并建好门店——事实证明耗资约 900 万美元——如果门店证明是成功的,再以成本价卖给我们。反之,如果销售额未能达到他的预期,我们可以退出这项生意,而无需向比尔支付分文。这样的结果,自然会使他背负着一栋空置建筑上的巨额投资。我告诉他,我感激他的提议,但觉得如果伯克希尔要获得上行收益,也应承担下行风险。比尔断然拒绝:如果因为他的宗教信仰而导致失败,他想亲自承受这一打击。
<<<END P 9>>>
Bill then insisted on a truly extraordinary proposition: He would personally buy the land and build the store -- for about $9 million as it turned out -- and would sell it to us at his cost if it proved to be successful. On the other hand, if sales fell short of his expectations, we could exit the business without paying Bill a cent. This outcome, of course, would leave him with a huge investment in an empty building. I told him that I appreciated his offer but felt that if Berkshire was going to get the upside it should also take the downside. Bill said nothing doing: If there was to be failure because of his religious beliefs, he wanted to take the blow personally.
这家店去年八月开业,一炮而红。随后比尔把整处房产转给了我们——连同一块已大幅升值的额外土地——我们照他的成本给他开了张支票。还有更绝的:这两年被占用的资金,比尔连一分钱利息都不肯收。
The store opened last August and immediately became a huge success. Bill thereupon turned the property over to us -- including some extra land that had appreciated significantly -- and we wrote him a check for his cost. And get this: Bill refused to take a dime of interest on the capital he had tied up over the two years .
要说别的上市公司里有哪位经理人也这么干过,反正我是没听说过。你们由此也就明白,能和比尔·蔡尔德这样的人搭伙,为什么让我每天早上都是跳着踢踏舞去上班。
If a manager has behaved similarly at some other public corporation, I haven't heard about it. You can understand why the opportunity to partner with people like Bill Child causes me to tap dance to work every morning.
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补一段花絮:八月“试营业”之后大约一个月,我们为博伊西门店办了场盛大的开业典礼。剪彩自然少不了我(我得强调一句,你们的董事长好歹还派得上这点用场)。致辞时,我告诉在场众人,销售额远超预期,让我们稳稳坐上了爱达荷州最大家居用品店的位子。可讲着讲着,我的记忆竟奇迹般地清晰起来。等话讲完,我全想起来了:在博伊西开店,本来就是我的主意。
A footnote: After our "soft" opening in August, we had a grand opening of the Boise store about a month later. Naturally, I went there to cut the ribbon (your Chairman, I wish to emphasize, is good for something ). In my talk I told the crowd how sales had far exceeded expectations, making us, by a considerable margin, the largest home furnishings store in Idaho. Then, as the speech progressed, my memory miraculously began to improve. By the end of my talk, it all had come back to me: Opening a store in Boise had been my idea.
财产/意外险的经济学
The Economics of Property/Casualty Insurance
我们的主业是保险——尽管另外还有几门同样举足轻重的生意。所以,要读懂伯克希尔,就得先懂得怎么评估一家保险公司。关键有三条:一是这门生意能生出多少浮存金;二是浮存金的成本;三是最要紧的,这两者的长期走向。
Our main business -- though we have others of great importance -- is insurance. To understand Berkshire, therefore, it is necessary that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.
先说浮存金:这是我们持有、却并不属于我们的钱。保险业务里,浮存金之所以存在,是因为保费在赔付之前就已收进来,这段时间差有时长达许多年。在此期间,保险公司可以拿这笔钱去投资。这桩美差通常也带着一个副作用:保险公司收进的保费,往往盖不住它最终要赔付的损失和费用,于是就有了“承保亏损”,这也就是浮存金的成本。如果一门保险生意长期的浮存金成本,低于该公司另行筹资的成本,那这门生意就有价值;可要是浮存金成本高过市场利率,那它就是个赔本货。
To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. This pleasant activity typically carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.
这里得提个醒:由于损失成本只能靠估算,保险公司在计算承保结果时回旋余地极大,投资者因此很难算清一家公司真实的浮存金成本。估算的偏差——多数出于无心,偶尔也未必——可能大得吓人,而这些误算的后果会直接砸进利润里。老练的观察者通常能看出准备金上的大窟窿,可普通公众往往只能照单全收摆在面前的数字。有时候,那些大牌审计师默许放行的数字,连我都看得目瞪口呆。1999 年,好几家保险公司公布的准备金调整,把投资者早先据以买进卖出的“利润”变成了笑话。在伯克希尔,我们力求准备金计提得保守而稳定。即便如此,也得提醒各位:不愉快的意外,随时都可能冒出来。
A caution is appropriate here: Because loss costs must be estimated, insurers have enormous latitude in figuring their underwriting results, and that makes it very difficult for investors to calculate a company's true cost of float. Errors of estimation, usually innocent but sometimes not, can be huge. The consequences of these miscalculations flow directly into earnings. An experienced observer can usually detect large-scale errors in reserving, but the general public can typically do no more than accept what's presented, and at times I have been amazed by the numbers that big-name auditors have implicitly blessed. In 1999 a number of insurers announced reserve adjustments that made a mockery of the "earnings" that investors had relied on earlier when making their buy and sell decisions. At Berkshire, we strive to be conservative and consistent in our reserving. Even so, we warn you that an unpleasant surprise is always possible.
下面这张表按时间点列示了伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下各保险板块所产生的浮存金,起点是 33 年前我们收购国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity Company,其传统业务归入“其他主险”板块)之时。相对于保费规模,我们的浮存金生成量相当大。在编制此表时,我们计算浮存金的方法是:将净损失准备金、损失理算费用准备金、分入再保险业务所持资金以及未到期保费准备金相加,再减去代理人往来余额、预付获取成本、预付税款以及分入再保险相关的递延费用。(听明白了吗?)
The table that follows shows (at intervals) the float generated by the various segments of Berkshire's insurance operations since we entered the business 33 years ago upon acquiring National Indemnity Company (whose traditional lines are included in the segment "Other Primary"). For the table we have calculated our float -- which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume -- by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting agents balances, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Got that?)
年末浮存金(单位:百万美元)
Yearend Float (in $ millions)
年份
Year
GEICO
GEICO
通用再保险
General Re
其他
Other
再保险
Reinsurance
其他
Other
主险
Primary
总计
Total
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1967 20 20 1977 40 131 171 1987 701 807 1,508 1997 2,917 4,014 455 7,386 1998 3,125 14,909 4,305 415 22,754 1999 3,444 15,166 6,285 403 25,298
1967 20 20 1977 40 131 171 1987 701 807 1,508 1997 2,917 4,014 455 7,386 1998 3,125 14,909 4,305 415 22,754 1999 3,444 15,166 6,285 403 25,298
浮存金的增长固然重要,但其成本才是关键。多年来,我们通常只录得少量承保亏损——这意味着我们的浮存金成本相应较低——有时甚至实现承保盈利,这意味着我们不仅拿着别人的钱,别人还倒贴钱给我们。事实上,截至 1998 年,我们的累计承保业绩为盈利。然而,1999 年我们发生了 14 亿美元的承保亏损,浮存金成本因此达到了 5.8%。有一个因素可略作宽慰:其中 4 亿美元的亏损是我们乐见其成的,因为它来自未来十年将为我们贡献大量优质浮存金的业务。但余下的亏损则绝对不受欢迎,我们的整体业绩只能判定为极差。若无特大灾难,我们预计 2000 年的浮存金成本将会下降,但任何降幅都将被我们在 GEICO 的激进扩张计划所冲抵——这一点我们稍后再谈。
Growth of float is important -- but its cost is what's vital. Over the years we have usually recorded only a small underwriting loss -- which means our cost of float was correspondingly low -- or actually had an underwriting profit, which means we were being paid for holding other people's money. Indeed, our cumulative result through 1998 was an underwriting profit. In 1999, however, we incurred a $1.4 billion underwriting loss that left us with float cost of 5.8%. One mildly mitigating factor: We enthusiastically welcomed $400 million of the loss because it stems from business that will deliver us exceptional float over the next decade. The balance of the loss, however, was decidedly unwelcome, and our overall result must be judged extremely poor. Absent a mega-catastrophe, we expect float cost to fall in 2000, but any decline will be tempered by our aggressive plans for GEICO, which we will discuss later.
多年来,能创造出如此巨额的“零成本”浮存金,有数人功不可没,其中首推阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)。阿吉特对伯克希尔的价值,怎么讲都不为过:他从零开始,打造出一家杰出的再保险业务,在他的任期内始终实现承保盈利,如今持有 63 亿美元浮存金。
There are a number of people who deserve credit for manufacturing so much "no-cost" float over the years. Foremost is Ajit Jain. It's simply impossible to overstate Ajit's value to Berkshire: He has from scratch built an outstanding reinsurance business, which during his tenure has earned an underwriting profit and now holds $6.3 billion of float.
在阿吉特身上,我们拥有这样一位承保人:他具备足够的智慧,能为大多数风险合理定价;又有足够的务实精神,能坦然放下那些他无法评估的风险;他既有勇气在保费合宜时签下巨额保单,又有纪律在保费不足时拒绝哪怕极小的风险。一个人能具备其中任何一项才能,已属难得。而集所有这些才能于一身,实属非凡。
In Ajit, we have an underwriter equipped with the intelligence to properly rate most risks; the realism to forget about those he can't evaluate; the courage to write huge policies when the premium is appropriate; and the discipline to reject even the smallest risk when the premium is inadequate. It is rare to find a person possessing any one of these talents. For one person to have them all is remarkable.
由于阿吉特专攻巨灾再保险,这类业务出险频率低,但一旦出险损失极为巨大,因此他的业务注定比大多数保险业务波动性大得多。迄今为止,在这本波动剧烈的账册上,我们运气一直不错。即便如此,阿吉特的成就也确实非同寻常。
Since Ajit specializes in super-cat reinsurance, a line in which losses are infrequent but extremely large when they occur, his business is sure to be far more volatile than most insurance operations. To date, we have benefitted from good luck on this volatile book. Even so, Ajit's achievements are truly extraordinary.
我们的“其他主险”保险业务,虽然规模较小,但同样为伯克希尔的内在价值做出了重要贡献。过去五年间,这批保险公司累计创造了 1.92 亿美元的承保盈利,同时为我们提供了表中所列的浮存金。在保险业中,这样的成绩并不常见。为此功绩,我们要感谢罗德·埃尔德雷德(Rod Eldred)、布拉德·金斯特勒(Brad Kinstler)、约翰·凯泽(John Kizer)、唐·托尔(Don Towle)和唐·沃斯特(Don Wurster)。
In a smaller but nevertheless important way, our "other primary" insurance operation has also added to Berkshire's intrinsic value. This collection of insurers has delivered a $192 million underwriting profit over the past five years while supplying us with the float shown in the table. In the insurance world, results like this are uncommon, and for their feat we thank Rod Eldred, Brad Kinstler, John Kizer, Don Towle and Don Wurster.
如我前文所述,通用再保险(General Re)1999 年的承保业绩极差(尽管投资收益使其整体仍保持盈利)。我们在国内和国际市场上的业务定价都严重偏低,这一状况正在改善,但尚未得到根本纠正。然而,拉长时间看,公司理应积累起越来越多的低成本浮存金。在通用再保险及其科隆子公司,激励薪酬计划如今已直接与浮存金增长和浮存金成本这两个变量挂钩,而决定股东价值的也正是这两个变量。
As I mentioned earlier, the General Re operation had an exceptionally poor underwriting year in 1999 (though investment income left the company well in the black). Our business was extremely underpriced, both domestically and internationally, a condition that is improving but not yet corrected. Over time, however, the company should develop a growing amount of low-cost float. At both General Re and its Cologne subsidiary, incentive compensation plans are now directly tied to the variables of float growth and cost of float, the same variables that determine value for owners.
即使一家再保险公司拥有目标明确且理性的薪酬制度,也不能指望每年都一帆风顺。再保险是一个波动性极强的行业,无论是通用再保险还是阿吉特的业务,都无法完全免受行业内不良定价行为的影响。但通用再保险拥有广泛的业务渠道、专业的承保技能、深厚的企业文化,再加上伯克希尔背书所带来的财务实力,完全有能力成为全球最赚钱的再保险公司。实现这一目标需要时间、精力和纪律,但我们毫不怀疑,罗恩·弗格森(Ron Ferguson)和他的团队能够达成这一目标。
Even though a reinsurer may have a tightly focused and rational compensation system, it cannot count on every year coming up roses. Reinsurance is a highly volatile business, and neither General Re nor Ajit's operation is immune to bad pricing behavior in the industry. But General Re has the distribution, the underwriting skills, the culture, and -- with Berkshire's backing -- the financial clout to become the world's most profitable reinsurance company. Getting there will take time, energy and discipline, but we have no doubt that Ron Ferguson and his crew can make it happen.
GEICO (1-800-847-7536 或 GEICO.com)
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GEICO (1-800-847-7536 or GEICO.com)
GEICO 在 1999 年取得了非凡的进步,原因很简单:我们有一个了不起的经营点子,又有一位出类拔萃的经理人托尼·奈斯利在执行。1996 年初伯克希尔收购 GEICO 时,我们把钥匙交给托尼,请他就当自己百分之百拥有这家公司来经营。剩下的,全是他干出来的。看看他的成绩单:
GEICO made exceptional progress in 1999. The reasons are simple: We have a terrific business idea being implemented by an extraordinary manager, Tony Nicely. When Berkshire purchased GEICO at the beginning of 1996, we handed the keys to Tony and asked him to run the operation exactly as if he owned 100% of it. He has done the rest. Take a look at his scorecard:
新汽车
New Auto
汽车保单
Auto Policies
多年以来
Years
保单 (1)(2)
Policies (1)(2)
有效保单 (1)
In-Force (1)
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1993 346,882 2,011,055 1994 384,217 2,147,549 1995 443,539 2,310,037 1996 592,300 2,543,699 1997 868,430 2,949,439 1998 1,249,875 3,562,644 1999 1,648,095 4,328,900
1993 346,882 2,011,055 1994 384,217 2,147,549 1995 443,539 2,310,037 1996 592,300 2,543,699 1997 868,430 2,949,439 1998 1,249,875 3,562,644 1999 1,648,095 4,328,900
(1)仅指“自愿”业务;不包括分担风险等。
(1) "Voluntary" only; excludes assigned risks and the like.
(2)已修订,以排除从 GEICO 一家公司转移到另一家公司的保单。
(2) Revised to exclude policies moved from one GEICO company to another.
1995 年,GEICO 在营销上花了 3300 万美元,配了 652 名电话顾问;去年,营销开支涨到 2.42 亿美元,顾问增至 2,631 人。而这才刚刚开头:2000 年的节奏还会大幅加快。说实话,只要我们确信自己应付得来,又相信花出去的最后一块钱都能以划算的成本换回新单,我们很乐意每年砸 10 亿美元做营销。
In 1995, GEICO spent $33 million on marketing and had 652 telephone counselors. Last year the company spent $242 million, and the counselor count grew to 2,631. And we are just starting: The pace will step up materially in 2000. Indeed, we would happily commit $1 billion annually to marketing if we knew we could handle the business smoothly and if we expected the last dollar spent to produce new business at an attractive cost.
眼下有两股趋势在牵动获客成本。坏消息是,招揽咨询变贵了:媒体价码上涨,而且回报在递减——也就是说,我们和对手都在加码广告,结果每则广告带来的咨询量对大家都在下滑。不过这些不利因素被另一件事抵消了一部分:我们的成交率——也就是咨询转化为成单的比例——一直在稳步提高。总的来说,我们相信自己的获客成本虽然确实在涨,却仍远低于行业水平。更重要的是,在续保业务上,我们的运营成本是所有全国性综合车险公司里最低的。这两大竞争优势都能持续下去。别人也许能照搬我们的模式,却复制不了我们的经济账。
Currently two trends are affecting acquisition costs. The bad news is that it has become more expensive to develop inquiries. Media rates have risen, and we are also seeing diminishing returns -- that is, as both we and our competitors step up advertising, inquiries per ad fall for all of us. These negatives are partly offset, however, by the fact that our closure ratio -- the percentage of inquiries converted to sales -- has steadily improved. Overall, we believe that our cost of new business, though definitely rising, is well below that of the industry. Of even greater importance, our operating costs for renewal business are the lowest among broad-based national auto insurers. Both of these major competitive advantages are sustainable. Others may copy our model, but they will be unable to replicate our economics.
上面那张表看着像是 GEICO 的保户续保率在往下掉,可有两个原因让这副表象靠不住。其一,过去几年我们的业务结构在变:从续保率很高的“优选”保户,转向续保率低得多的“标准”和“非标准”保户。(别看名字不一样,这三类客户的盈利前景其实差不多。)其二,相对较新的保户,续保率一向比老客户低——而我们增长提速,保户里新客户的占比水涨船高。把这两个因素剔掉,我们的续保率其实几乎没变。
The table above makes it appear that GEICO's retention of policyholders is falling, but for two reasons appearances are in this case deceiving. First, in the last few years our business mix has moved away from "preferred" policyholders, for whom industrywide retention rates are high, toward "standard" and "non-standard" policyholders for whom retention rates are much lower. (Despite the nomenclature, the three classes have similar profit prospects.) Second, retention rates for relatively new policyholders are always lower than those for long-time customers -- and because of our accelerated growth, our policyholder ranks now include an increased proportion of new customers. Adjusted for these two factors, our retention rate has changed hardly at all.
去年我们跟各位说过,1999 年 GEICO 和整个行业的承保利润率都会下滑,事实果然如此。对 2000 年,我们也给出同样的判断。几年前,事故的频率和严重程度出现了一次异常又出人意料的下降,利润率因此被撑得过高。行业于是纷纷降价——如今却不得不面对损失成本的回升。要是 2000 年车险公司的利润率掉个三个百分点左右,我们一点也不会意外。
We told you last year that underwriting margins for both GEICO and the industry would fall in 1999, and they did. We make a similar prediction for 2000. A few years ago margins got too wide, having enjoyed the effects of an unusual and unexpected decrease in the frequency and severity of accidents. The industry responded by reducing rates -- but now is having to contend with an increase in loss costs. We would not be surprised to see the margins of auto insurers deteriorate by around three percentage points in 2000.
除了频率和严重程度持续恶化,今年还有两个负面因素会拖累行业。其一,提价见效很慢:一来监管审批要拖时间,二来保单得跑完现有周期,新费率才用得上。其二,过去几年不少车险公司的报告利润,靠的是释放准备金——这些公司早年高估了自己的损失成本,如今这一池子多余的准备金基本已经见底,往后靠它来撑利润,效果顶多也就是微乎其微。
Two negatives besides worsening frequency and severity will hurt the industry this year. First, rate increases go into effect only slowly, both because of regulatory delay and because insurance contracts must run their course before new rates can be put in. Second, reported earnings of many auto insurers have benefitted in the last few years from reserve releases, made possible because the companies overestimated their loss costs in still-earlier years. This reservoir of redundant reserves has now largely dried up, and future boosts to earnings from this source will be minor at best.
在给员工——从托尼到基层——发奖金和利润分享时,GEICO 始终只看两个变量,也只看这两个:一是保户数量的百分比增长,二是“成熟”业务(即在我们这儿待满一年以上的保单)的盈利。1999 年这两头我们都做得极为出色,因此给绝大多数员工发了相当于工资 28.4% 的利润分享(合计 1.133 亿美元)。开这些支票,托尼和我都乐在其中。
In compensating its associates -- from Tony on down -- GEICO continues to use two variables, and only two, in determining what bonuses and profit-sharing contributions will be: 1) its percentage growth in policyholders and 2) the earnings of its "seasoned" business, meaning policies that have been with us for more than a year. We did outstandingly well on both fronts during 1999 and therefore made a profit-sharing payment of 28.4% of salary (in total, $113.3 million) to the great majority of our associates. Tony and I love writing those checks.
在伯克希尔,我们希望薪酬政策既一看就懂,又和我们对员工的期望对得上。承揽新业务成本高昂(而且前面说过,还在越变越高)。要是把这些成本算进奖金里——就像我们接手前 GEICO 管理层那样——那等于因为员工拉来了新单反倒罚他们,可这些新单明明对伯克希尔大有好处。所以说白了,我们对员工的态度是:新业务的账,公司来买单。事实上,正因为保户数量的百分比增长本身就是薪酬方案的一部分,我们还会为此另行奖励——
At Berkshire, we want to have compensation policies that are both easy to understand and in sync with what we wish our associates to accomplish. Writing new business is expensive (and, as mentioned, getting more expensive). If we were to include those costs in our calculation of bonuses -- as managements did before our arrival at GEICO -- we would be penalizing our associates for garnering new policies, even though these are very much in Berkshire's interest. So, in effect, we say to our associates that we will foot the bill for new business. Indeed, because percentage growth in policyholders is part of our compensation scheme, we reward
奖励员工做出这门起初并不赚钱的生意。然后,对他们在成熟业务上把成本压下去的功劳,我们再额外奖励一次。
our associates for producing this initially-unprofitable business. And then we reward them additionally for holding down costs on our seasoned business.
尽管我们广告投得不少,新业务最好的来源仍是老保户的口碑推荐——这些人对我们的价格和服务总体是满意的。去年《吉普林个人理财》杂志的一篇文章,把我们在客户满意度上的位置勾勒得相当清楚:
Despite the extensive advertising we do, our best source of new business is word-of-mouth recommendations from existing policyholders, who on the whole are pleased with our prices and service. An article published last year by Kiplinger's Personal Finance
这家杂志对 20 个州保险监管部门的调查显示,GEICO 的投诉率远低于它的大多数主要竞争对手。
Magazine gives a good picture of where we stand in customer satisfaction: The magazine's survey of 20 state insurance departments showed that GEICO's complaint ratio was well below the ratio for most of its major competitors.
推荐业务如此之强,意味着单靠每年区区 5000 万美元的广告费,我们大概就能守住现有的保单规模。当然,这只是估算,而且我们永远无从验证它准不准,因为托尼的脚会一直踩着广告这只油门(而我的脚会踩在他的脚上)。话虽如此,我要强调:2000 年我们将投入的 3 亿到 3.5 亿美元广告费,外加为销售顾问、通信和场地所付的巨额额外开支,其中很大一块都是我们自愿掏的钱——我们这么花,既是为了换来可观的增长,也是为了在美国人心里把 GEICO 这个品牌的承诺做深、做实。
Our strong referral business means that we probably could maintain our policy count by spending as little as $50 million annually on advertising. That's a guess, of course, and we will never know whether it is accurate because Tony's foot is going to stay on the advertising pedal (and my foot will be on his). Nevertheless, I want to emphasize that a major percentage of the $300-$350 million we will spend in 2000 on advertising, as well as large additional costs we will incur for sales counselors, communications and facilities, are optional outlays we choose to make so that we can both achieve significant growth and extend and solidify the promise of the GEICO brand in the minds of Americans.
就我个人而言,这些开支是伯克希尔能做的最好投资。靠着广告,GEICO 正与海量家庭建立起直接关系,这些家庭平均每年会给我们送来 1,100 美元。这一下就让我们跻身全美顶尖的直销商之列——不论卖的是哪种产品。而且,随着我们和越来越多家庭结下长期关系,现金是滚滚流入、而非流出(这里可没有那套互联网经济学)。去年,GEICO 的客户数增加了 766,256 户,同时从经营利润和浮存金增长中进账 5.9 亿美元现金。
Personally, I think these expenditures are the best investment Berkshire can make. Through its advertising, GEICO is acquiring a direct relationship with a huge number of households that, on average, will send us $1,100 year after year. That makes us -- among all companies, selling whatever kind of product -- one of the country's leading direct merchandisers. Also, as we build our long-term relationships with more and more families, cash is pouring in rather than going out (no Internet economics here). Last year, as GEICO increased its customer base by 766,256, it gained $590 million of cash from operating earnings and the increase in float.
过去三年,我们在个人车险市场的份额从 2.7% 升到了 4.1%。可我们理应进入更多家庭——说不定就包括你家。打个电话来问问吧。来查费率的人里,约有 40% 发现和我们做生意能省钱。之所以不是 100%,是因为各家保险公司的承保判断不一样,有些公司比我们更肯给住在某些地区、或从事某些职业的司机让利。不过我们的成交率说明:在向所有人敞开投保的全国性保险公司里,我们报出低价的次数比谁都多。此外,在 40 个州,我们还能给股东一份特别折扣——通常是 8%。记得报上自己伯克希尔股东的身份,销售顾问才好做相应调整。
In the past three years, we have increased our market share in personal auto insurance from 2.7% to 4.1%. But we rightfully belong in many more households -- maybe even yours. Give us a call and find out. About 40% of those people checking our rates find that they can save money by doing business with us. The proportion is not 100% because insurers differ in their underwriting judgments, with some giving more credit than we do to drivers who live in certain geographic areas or work at certain occupations. Our closure rate indicates, however, that we more frequently offer the low price than does any other national carrier selling insurance to all comers. Furthermore, in 40 states we can offer a special discount -- usually 8% -- to our shareholders. Just be sure to identify yourself as a Berkshire owner so that our sales counselor can make the appropriate adjustment.
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我怀着悲痛向各位报告:GEICO 前董事长洛里默·戴维森去年 11 月辞世,就在他 97 岁生日之后没几天。对 GEICO 来说,戴维是一位商界巨擘,是他把公司带进了大联盟。对我而言,他是朋友、老师,也是英雄。过去的年报里,我提过他一生对我的种种关照。可以断言,若没有他出现在我生命里,我的人生会是另一番模样。去年 8 月,托尼、卢·辛普森和我一起去看望戴维,他头脑之清明让我们叹服——尤其在一切与 GEICO 相关的事情上。直到生命的最后一刻,他都是公司头号的拥护者,我们会永远怀念他。
It's with sadness that I report to you that Lorimer Davidson, GEICO's former Chairman, died last November, a few days after his 97 th birthday. For GEICO, Davy was a business giant who moved the company up to the big leagues. For me, he was a friend, teacher and hero. I have told you of his lifelong kindnesses to me in past reports. Clearly, my life would have developed far differently had he not been a part of it. Tony, Lou Simpson and I visited Davy in August and marveled at his mental alertness -- particularly in all matters regarding GEICO. He was the company's number one supporter right up to the end, and we will forever miss him.
航空服务业务
Aviation Services
我们两家航空服务公司——飞行安全国际(FSI)和行政喷气航空(EJA)——在各自领域都是遥遥领先的领头羊。EJA 通过旗下 NetJets® 计划,销售并管理喷气公务机的部分产权,规模比紧随其后的两家对手加起来还大。FSI 培训飞行员(以及其他运输业专业人员),体量约是最接近的对手的五倍。
Our two aviation services companies -- FlightSafety International ("FSI") and Executive Jet Aviation ("EJA") -- are both runaway leaders in their field. EJA, which sells and manages the fractional ownership of jet aircraft, through its NetJets® program, is larger than its next two competitors combined. FSI trains pilots (as well as other transportation professionals) and is five times or so the size of its nearest competitor.
这两家公司还有一个共同点:至今仍由创始人亲自执掌。艾尔·乌尔茨奇 1951 年拿 1 万美元创办了 FSI,里克·桑图利 1986 年开创了部分产权这一行当。两人都是出色的经理人,早已不需为钱工作,却在帮公司成长壮大、追求卓越中如鱼得水。
Another common characteristic of the companies is that they are still managed by their founding entrepreneurs. Al Ueltschi started FSI in 1951 with $10,000, and Rich Santulli invented the fractional-ownership industry in 1986. These men are both remarkable managers who have no financial need to work but thrive on helping their companies grow and excel.
这两门生意虽然地位相仿,经济特征却大不一样。FSI 得砸下巨额资本:一台飞行模拟器最贵可达 1,500 万美元,而我们有 222 台;更要命的是,一台模拟器一次只能训一个人,这意味着 FSI 每挣一美元收入所需的资本投入高得出奇。所以营业利润率也必须够高,我们才能拿到合理的资本回报。去年,我们在 FSI 及其持股 50% 的合资公司飞行安全波音上,投下了 2.15 亿美元的资本开支。
Though these two businesses have leadership positions that are similar, they differ in their economic characteristics. FSI must lay out huge amounts of capital. A single flight simulator can cost as much as $15 million -- and we have 222. Only one person at a time, furthermore, can be trained in a simulator, which means that the capital investment per dollar of revenue at FSI is exceptionally high. Operating margins must therefore also be high, if we are to earn a reasonable return on capital. Last year we made capital expenditures of $215 million at FSI and FlightSafety Boeing, its 50%-owned affiliate.
EJA 这边则相反:飞机的所有权归客户,当然我们自己也得投资配一支核心机队,才能保证服务过硬。举个例子,感恩节后的那个周日是 EJA 一年中最忙的一天,1,412 位客户共同持有 169 架飞机的部分产权,其中很多人一门心思要在下午三到六点之间飞回家,把我们的运力绷到了极限。这一天,还有另外几个特殊日子,我们都得备下一批公司自有的飞机,好让每一位客户都能在想去的时间、抵达想去的地方。
At EJA, in contrast, the customer owns the equipment, though we, of course, must invest in a core fleet of our own planes to ensure outstanding service. For example, the Sunday after Thanksgiving, EJA's busiest day of the year, strains our resources since fractions of 169 planes are owned by 1,412 customers, many of whom are bent on flying home between 3 and 6 p.m. On that day, and certain others, we need a supply of company-owned aircraft to make sure all parties get where they want, when they want.
不过,我们飞的飞机大多数归客户所有,这意味着即便税前利润率不高,这门生意也能带来相当不错的股本回报。眼下,客户手里的飞机价值超过 20 亿美元,此外我们还有 42 亿美元的飞机订单在手。说实话,眼下卡住我们脖子的,是飞机的供应。如今全球生产的公务机里,约有 8% 是交到我们手上的,我们还嫌这份额不够大。尽管 1999 年 EJA 受制于供应,它的经常性收入——月度管理费加按小时计的飞行费——仍增长了 46%。
Still, most of the planes we fly are owned by customers, which means that modest pre-tax margins in this business can produce good returns on equity. Currently, our customers own planes worth over $2 billion, and in addition we have $4.2 billion of planes on order. Indeed, the limiting factor in our business right now is the availability of planes. We now are taking delivery of about 8% of all business jets manufactured in the world, and we wish we could get a bigger share than that. Though EJA was supply-constrained in 1999, its recurring revenues -- monthly management fees plus hourly flight fees -- increased 46%.
部分产权这一行还处在襁褓期。EJA 正在欧洲筑起关键规模,往后我们会向全球铺开。这要花钱——花很多很多钱——但该花的我们一定花。规模对我们和客户都至关重要:谁在全球天上飞的飞机最多,谁就能给客户最好的服务。“买一份产权,用一支机队”,这话在 EJA 是实打实的。
The fractional-ownership industry is still in its infancy. EJA is now building critical mass in Europe, and over time we will expand around the world. Doing that will be expensive -- very expensive -- but we will spend what it takes. Scale is vital to both us and our customers: The company with the most planes in the air worldwide will be able to offer its customers the best service. "Buy a fraction, get a fleet" has real meaning at EJA.
EJA 还占着另一个大便宜:它最大的两个对手都是飞机制造商的子公司,只卖各自母公司造的飞机。那些飞机固然不错,可这两家对手能提供的客舱样式和任务能力就很受限。相比之下,EJA 可从五家供应商那里提供五花八门的机型。于是我们能把客户需要的飞机递到他手上——而不是让他去买对手母公司急着要卖的那一款。
EJA enjoys another important advantage in that its two largest competitors are both subsidiaries of aircraft manufacturers and sell only the aircraft their parents make. Though these are fine planes, these competitors are severely limited in the cabin styles and mission capabilities they can offer. EJA, in contrast, offers a wide array of planes from five suppliers. Consequently, we can give the customer whatever he needs to buy -- rather than his getting what the competitor's parent needs to sell.
去年在年报里,我讲过我们一家人对那架自 1995 年起持有的 Hawker 1000 四分之一产权(每年 200 飞行小时)有多满意。我被自己那番话说得心潮澎湃,没过多久又签下了一架 Cessna V Ultra 的十六分之一产权。如今,我每年在 EJA 和波仙珠宝上的开销加起来,是我薪水的整整十倍。各位不妨把它当作在我们这儿消费的一个粗略参照。
Last year in this report, I described my family's delight with the one-quarter (200 flight hours annually) of a Hawker 1000 that we had owned since 1995. I got so pumped up by my own prose that shortly thereafter I signed up for one-sixteenth of a Cessna V Ultra as well. Now my annual outlays at EJA and Borsheim's, combined, total ten times my salary. Think of this as a rough guideline for your own expenditures with us.
过去一年里,伯克希尔有两位外部董事也签约了 EJA。(或许是我们给他们开的酬劳太高了。)各位应当了解,他们和我为飞机与服务支付的价格,与任何其他客户完全相同:EJA 奉行“最惠国待遇”政策,没有人能拿到特殊折扣。
During the past year, two of Berkshire's outside directors have also signed on with EJA. (Maybe we're paying them too much.) You should be aware that they and I are charged exactly the same price for planes and service as is any other customer: EJA follows a "most favored nations" policy, with no one getting a special deal.
好了,坐稳了。去年,EJA 通过了终极考验:查理报了名。再没有比这更有分量的背书,能说明 EJA 的服务有多值了。拨打 1-800-848-6436,向我们索要那份关于部分产权的“白皮书”吧。
And now, brace yourself. Last year, EJA passed the ultimate test: Charlie signed up. No other endorsement could speak more eloquently to the value of the EJA service. Give us a call at 1-800-848-6436 and ask for our "white paper" on fractional ownership.
1999 年的收购
Acquisitions of 1999
在 GEICO 和 Executive Jet 公务航空公司,我们最好的新客源,是那些已经很满意的老客户。事实上,约有 65% 的新机主,都是由爱上这项服务的现有客户推荐而来的。
At both GEICO and Executive Jet, our best source of new customers is the happy ones we already have. Indeed, about 65% of our new owners of aircraft come as referrals from current owners who have fallen in love with the service.
我们的收购,大体也是这么来的。换作别的公司,高管们也许会一门心思找投资银行家去物色收购标的,走一套早已标准化的拍卖流程。在这套流程里,银行家会备一份“材料书”,让我想起小时候看的超人漫画。华尔街的版本是这样的:一家原本平平无奇的公司,从投资银行家的电话亭里一钻出来,就能一步跨过所有对手,利润比子弹跑得还快。被这份材料书对标的公司神通的描绘撩拨得心痒难耐、急着收购的 CEO 们——外表再冷静,骨子里也都是一个个露易丝·莱恩——当场就晕了过去。
Our acquisitions usually develop in the same way. At other companies, executives may devote themselves to pursuing acquisition possibilities with investment bankers, utilizing an auction process that has become standardized. In this exercise the bankers prepare a "book" that makes me think of the Superman comics of my youth. In the Wall Street version, a formerly mild-mannered company emerges from the investment banker's phone booth able to leap over competitors in a single bound and with earnings moving faster than a speeding bullet. Titillated by the book's description of the acquiree's powers, acquisition-hungry CEOs -- Lois Lanes all, beneath their cool exteriors -- promptly swoon.
这些材料书里最好笑的,是对未来许多年利润预测得何等精确。可你要是回头问写书的银行家,他自己公司下个月能挣多少,他准会缩起脖子,告诉你生意和市场太不确定,他实在不敢妄下断言。
What's particularly entertaining in these books is the precision with which earnings are projected for many years ahead. If you ask the author-banker, however, what his own firm will earn next month , he will go into a protective crouch and tell you that business and markets are far too uncertain for him to venture a forecast.
有个故事我实在忍不住要讲:1985 年,一家大型投行受托出售斯科特-费泽,四处兜售——却始终没人接手。读到这桩买卖告吹的消息后,我给斯科特-费泽当时、也是如今的 CEO 拉尔夫·谢伊写了封信,表示有意收购。我和拉尔夫素未谋面,可不到一周我们就谈成了。可惜的是,斯科特-费泽与那家投行签的委托书写明:无论投行是否找到买家,只要公司卖出,就得付它 250 万美元。我猜那位牵头的银行家觉得,收这笔钱总得干点什么,于是很大方地送了我们一份他们编写的关于斯科特-费泽的书。查理以他一贯的得体回了一句:“我宁愿付 250 万美元,也不看它。”
Here's one story I can't resist relating: In 1985, a major investment banking house undertook to sell Scott Fetzer, offering it widely -- but with no success. Upon reading of this strikeout, I wrote Ralph Schey, then and now Scott Fetzer's CEO, expressing an interest in buying the business. I had never met Ralph, but within a week we had a deal. Unfortunately, Scott Fetzer's letter of engagement with the banking firm provided it a $2.5 million fee upon sale, even if it had nothing to do with finding the buyer. I guess the lead banker felt he should do something for his payment, so he graciously offered us a copy of the book on Scott Fetzer that his firm had prepared. With his customary tact, Charlie responded: "I'll pay $2.5 million not to read it."
在伯克希尔,我们精心打磨的收购策略,就是坐等电话铃响。可喜的是,铃声有时确实会响起来,多半是因为早先卖公司给我们的某位经理人,向朋友推荐说不妨也来试试。
At Berkshire, our carefully-crafted acquisition strategy is simply to wait for the phone to ring. Happily, it sometimes does so, usually because a manager who sold to us earlier has recommended to a friend that he think about following suit.
这就说到了家具生意。两年前我讲过,1983 年收购内布拉斯加家具城、以及此后我与布拉姆金一家的交情,怎样牵出了后来对 R. C. 威利(1995 年)和星辰家具(1997 年)的接连收购。对我来说,这些关系无一不美妙。伯克希尔不仅收购了三家一流零售商,这些交易还让我与几位这辈子能遇上的最好的人成了朋友。
Which brings us to the furniture business. Two years ago I recounted how the acquisition of Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983 and my subsequent association with the Blumkin family led to follow-on transactions with R. C. Willey (1995) and Star Furniture (1997). For me, these relationships have all been terrific. Not only did Berkshire acquire three outstanding retailers; these deals also allowed me to become friends with some of the finest people you will ever meet.
我一直在问布拉姆金一家、比尔·蔡尔德和梅尔文·沃尔夫:像你们这样的还有没有?他们的回答始终如一——新英格兰的塔特尔曼兄弟,以及他们那门出色的家具生意,乔丹家具。
Naturally, I have persistently asked the Blumkins, Bill Child and Melvyn Wolff whether there are any more out there like you. Their invariable answer was the Tatelman brothers of New England and their remarkable furniture business, Jordan's.
去年,我见到了巴里·塔特尔曼和埃利奥特·塔特尔曼,很快就签下了伯克希尔收购这家公司的协议。与我们此前收购的三家家具公司一样,这门生意也是家族相传已久——乔丹家具的这一传承始于 1927 年,当时巴里和埃利奥特的祖父在波士顿郊区开始经营。在两兄弟的管理下,乔丹家具在本地区越来越强,成为新罕布什尔州和马萨诸塞州最大的家具零售商。
I met Barry and Eliot Tatelman last year and we soon signed an agreement for Berkshire to acquire the company. Like our three previous furniture acquisitions, this business had long been in the family -- in this case since 1927, when Barry and Eliot's grandfather began operations in a Boston suburb. Under the brothers' management, Jordan's has grown ever more dominant in its region, becoming the largest furniture retailer in New Hampshire as well as Massachusetts.
塔特尔曼兄弟卖的不只是家具,做的也不只是开店。他们还给顾客端上一套令人眼花缭乱的娱乐体验,叫作“购物娱乐”(shoppertainment)。一家人逛进店里,既能玩得痛快,又能同时把琳琅满目的商品尽收眼底。生意成绩同样惊人:论每平方英尺的销售额,乔丹家具在全美大型家具商里高居榜首。你若到波士顿一带,我强烈建议去他们的店逛逛——尤其是纳蒂克那家,是乔丹家具最新的一间。记得带钱。
The Tatelmans don't just sell furniture or manage stores. They also present customers with a dazzling entertainment experience called "shoppertainment." A family visiting a store can have a terrific time, while concurrently viewing an extraordinary selection of merchandise. The business results are also extraordinary: Jordan's has the highest sales per square foot of any major furniture operation in the country. I urge you to visit one of their stores if you are in the Boston area -- particularly the one at Natick, which is Jordan's newest. Bring money.
巴里和埃利奥特是两位很有格调的人——就像伯克希尔另外三家家具企业的当家人一样。把公司卖给我们的时候,他们决定给乔丹家具每一位员工,按其每工作一小时至少 50 美分的标准发放一笔钱。这笔钱合计 900 万美元,全部出自塔特尔曼兄弟自己的口袋,伯克希尔没出一分钱。而开出这些支票,巴里和埃利奥特高兴得不得了。
Barry and Eliot are classy people -- just like their counterparts at Berkshire's three other furniture operations. When they sold to us, they elected to give each of their employees at least 50¢ for every hour that he or she had worked for Jordan's. This payment added up to $9 million, which came from the Tatelmans' own pockets, not from Berkshire's. And Barry and Eliot were thrilled to write the checks.
我们旗下每一家家具企业,在各自的地盘上都稳居第一。如今在马萨诸塞州、新罕布什尔州、得克萨斯州、内布拉斯加州、犹他州和爱达荷州,我们卖出的家具比任何人都多。去年,星辰家具(Star)的梅尔文·沃尔夫(Melvyn Wolff)和他的妹妹雪莉·图米姆(Shirley Toomim)取得两项重大成果:一是进军圣安东尼奥,二是对星辰家具位于奥斯汀的门店进行了大规模扩建。
Each of our furniture operations is number one in its territory. We now sell more furniture than anyone else in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Texas, Nebraska, Utah and Idaho. Last year Star's Melvyn Wolff and his sister, Shirley Toomim, scored two major successes: a move into San Antonio and a significant enlargement of Star's store in Austin.
家具零售这一行里,没有哪个组合能与伯克希尔攒起来的这一摊相提并论。这让我开心,也让你们赚钱。W. C. 菲尔兹说过一句话:“是一个女人把我逼上了酒瘾,可惜我一直没机会谢谢她。”我可不想犯同样的错误。我要谢谢路易、罗恩和欧文·布拉姆金,是他们领我入了家具这一行,又在我们把如今这个家具集团一家家攒起来的路上,一步不差地为我指路。
There's no operation in the furniture retailing business remotely like the one assembled by Berkshire. It's fun for me and profitable for you. W. C. Fields once said, "It was a woman who drove me to drink, but unfortunately I never had the chance to thank her." I don't want to make that mistake. My thanks go to Louie, Ron and Irv Blumkin for getting me started in the furniture business and for unerringly guiding me as we have assembled the group we now have.
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再说我们的第二笔收购:它是经我的好友、Level 3 通信公司董事长、也是伯克希尔董事的小沃尔特·斯科特牵线的。沃尔特手上还有不少别的生意往来,其中之一便是中美能源——一家公用事业公司,他持有大量股份,也在董事会任职。去年 9 月,我们一同参加加州的一场会议时,沃尔特随口问我,伯克希尔有没有兴趣对中美能源做一笔大投资。打一开始,和沃尔特结伴入局的念头就让我觉得靠谱。回到奥马哈后,我读了几份中美能源的公开报告,又与沃尔特和中美能源那位才华横溢、颇具企业家气质的 CEO 戴维·索科尔短谈了两回。之后我表态:只要价格合适,这笔交易我们确实愿意做。
Now, for our second acquisition deal: It came to us through my good friend, Walter Scott, Jr., chairman of Level 3 Communications and a director of Berkshire. Walter has many other business connections as well, and one of them is with MidAmerican Energy, a utility company in which he has substantial holdings and on whose board he sits. At a conference in California that we both attended last September, Walter casually asked me whether Berkshire might be interested in making a large investment in MidAmerican, and from the start the idea of being in partnership with Walter struck me as a good one. Upon returning to Omaha, I read some of MidAmerican's public reports and had two short meetings with Walter and David Sokol, MidAmerican's talented and entrepreneurial CEO. I then said that, at an appropriate price, we would indeed like to make a deal.
电力行业的收购,因种种法规而变得复杂,其中包括 1935 年的《公用事业控股公司法》。因此,我们必须设计出一种既能达成交易、又不让伯克希尔取得表决权控制的结构。最终,我们买入一笔票息 11% 的固定收益证券,外加一组普通股和可交换优先股——这套组合会让伯克希尔握有中美能源略低于 10% 的表决权,却占约 76% 的股权权益。全部算下来,我们这笔投资约为 20 亿美元。
Acquisitions in the electric utility industry are complicated by a variety of regulations including the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935. Therefore, we had to structure a transaction that would avoid Berkshire gaining voting control. Instead we are purchasing an 11% fixed-income security, along with a combination of common stock and exchangeable preferred that will give Berkshire just under 10% of the voting power of MidAmerican but about 76% of the equity interest. All told, our investment will be about $2 billion.
沃尔特一如既往地用真金白银为自己的判断背书:交易交割后,他和家人还会用现金增持中美能源股票,使总投资达到约 2.8 亿美元。沃尔特还将是公司的控股股东——要说谁最适合坐这个位子,我想不出比他更合适的人。
Walter characteristically backed up his convictions with real money: He and his family will buy more MidAmerican stock for cash when the transaction closes, bringing their total investment to about $280 million. Walter will also be the controlling shareholder of the company, and I can't think of a better person to hold that post.
尽管公用事业这一行监管重重,我们仍有可能在这个领域追加投入。真要出手,涉及的金额可能相当可观。
Though there are many regulatory constraints in the utility industry, it's possible that we will make additional commitments in the field. If we do, the amounts involved could be large.
收购会计
Acquisition Accounting
我想再就会计问题说几句,这回谈的是它在收购上的运用。眼下这是个火药味十足的话题,尘埃落定之前,国会没准都会插一脚(那可真是一个糟糕透顶的主意)。
Once again, I would like to make some comments about accounting, in this case about its application to acquisitions. This is currently a very contentious topic and, before the dust settles, Congress may even intervene (a truly terrible idea).
一家公司被收购时,公认会计原则(GAAP)目前认可两种截然不同的入账方式:“购买法”和“联营法”。联营法里,对价必须是股票;购买法里,现金或股票都行。不管用哪种对价,管理层通常都厌恶购买法,因为它几乎总要求设立一个“商誉”科目、随后逐年摊销——这个过程会让利润背上一笔巨大的年度费用,而且往往一背就是几十年。相比之下,联营法用不着商誉科目,这正是管理层钟爱它的原因。
When a company is acquired, generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") currently condone two very different ways of recording the transaction: "purchase" and "pooling." In a pooling, stock must be the currency; in a purchase, payment can be made in either cash or stock. Whatever the currency, managements usually detest purchase accounting because it almost always requires that a "goodwill" account be established and subsequently written off -- a process that saddles earnings with a large annual charge that normally persists for decades. In contrast, pooling avoids a goodwill account, which is why managements love it.
如今,财务会计准则委员会(FASB)已提议终结联营法,许多 CEO 正严阵以待。这将是一场要紧的仗,我们不妨也讲几句看法。首先,我们赞同许多经理人的说法:商誉摊销费用通常是虚的。关于我在这方面的想法,各位可以翻我们 1983 年年报的附录(网站上有),也可以看《股东手册》第 55 至 62 页。
Now, the Financial Accounting Standards Board ("FASB") has proposed an end to pooling, and many CEOs are girding for battle. It will be an important fight, so we'll venture some opinions. To begin with, we agree with the many managers who argue that goodwill amortization charges are usually spurious. You'll find my thinking about this in the appendix to our 1983 annual report, which is available on our website, and in the Owner's Manual on pages 55 - 62.
会计准则硬性规定的摊销,在通常情形下与现实相抵触,这一点很叫人不安:多数会计费用好歹对应着实际发生的事,哪怕算得不够精确。拿折旧来说,它没法精确刻画有形资产贬值的幅度,可它至少描述了一件确凿在发生的事——有形资产终归要损耗。同理,存货的过时计提、应收账款的坏账计提、保修的预提,都属于反映真实成本的费用。这些费用每年的具体金额没法算得分毫不差,但非估不可,理由一目了然。
For accounting rules to mandate amortization that will, in the usual case, conflict with reality is deeply troublesome: Most accounting charges relate to what's going on, even if they don't precisely measure it. As an example, depreciation charges can't with precision calibrate the decline in value that physical assets suffer, but these charges do at least describe something that is truly occurring: Physical assets invariably deteriorate. Correspondingly, obsolescence charges for inventories, bad debt charges for receivables and accruals for warranties are among the charges that reflect true costs. The annual charges for these expenses can't be exactly measured, but the necessity for estimating them is obvious.
反观经济商誉,它在许多情形下并不缩水。事实上,在相当多——也许是多数——情形里,它反而随时间越长越值钱。就性质而言,经济商誉很像土地:两者的价值都必然起伏,可价值往哪个方向走,却半点没有定数。就拿喜诗糖果来说,它的经济商誉七十八年来一直在增长,虽不规则,却相当可观。而只要我们经营得当,这样的增长很可能还会再持续至少七十八年。
In contrast, economic goodwill does not, in many cases, diminish. Indeed, in a great many instances -- perhaps most -- it actually grows in value over time. In character, economic goodwill is much like land: The value of both assets is sure to fluctuate, but the direction in which value is going to go is in no way ordained. At See's, for example, economic goodwill has grown, in an irregular but very substantial manner, for 78 years. And, if we run the business right, growth of that kind will probably continue for at least another 78 years.
为了躲开商誉计提这套虚构,管理层转而拥抱联营法那套虚构。这项会计惯例,建立在一个颇具诗意的想法上:两条河一旦交汇,水流便再难分彼此。照这个说法,一家被并入更大企业的公司,并没有被“购买”(尽管它往往拿到了一大笔“出让”溢价)。于是,不产生商誉,那些烦人的后续利润计提也随之一笔勾销。存续实体的账,就当这几摊生意从来就是一体来做。
To escape from the fiction of goodwill charges, managers embrace the fiction of pooling. This accounting convention is grounded in the poetic notion that when two rivers merge their streams become indistinguishable. Under this concept, a company that has been merged into a larger enterprise has not been "purchased" (even though it will often have received a large "sell-out" premium). Consequently, no goodwill is created, and those pesky subsequent charges to earnings are eliminated. Instead, the accounting for the ongoing entity is handled as if the businesses had forever been one unit.
诗意到此为止。合并的现实往往大相径庭:收购方和被收购方分得清清楚楚,不管交易怎么搭结构,后者就是被“购买”了。你若不信,去问问那些被裁掉的员工,哪家是征服者、哪家是被征服者,包管一点不含糊。所以在这一点上,FASB 是对的:多数合并,本质就是一桩购买。没错,确有一些名副其实的“对等合并”,但那是凤毛麟角。
So much for poetry. The reality of merging is usually far different: There is indisputably an acquirer and an acquiree, and the latter has been "purchased," no matter how the deal has been structured. If you think otherwise, just ask employees severed from their jobs which company was the conqueror and which was the conquered. You will find no confusion. So on this point the FASB is correct: In most mergers, a purchase has been made. Yes, there are some true "mergers of equals," but they are few and far between.
查理和我认为,有一条立足现实的路子,既能满足 FASB 想如实记录购买这一正当诉求,又能回应管理层对那种荒唐的商誉减值计提的反对。第一步,让收购方按公允价值记下自己的收购价——不管付的是股票还是现金。多数情况下,这么一记就会产生一大笔代表经济商誉的资产。第二步,把这笔资产就搁在账上,不强制摊销。往后,一旦经济商誉确实减值(有时确实会),再像对待其他判定减值的资产一样,把它减记下来。
Charlie and I believe there's a reality-based approach that should both satisfy the FASB, which correctly wishes to record a purchase, and meet the objections of managements to nonsensical charges for diminution of goodwill. We would first have the acquiring company record its purchase price -- whether paid in stock or cash -- at fair value. In most cases, this procedure would create a large asset representing economic goodwill. We would then leave this asset on the books, not requiring its amortization. Later, if the economic goodwill became impaired, as it sometimes would, it would be written down just as would any other asset judged to be impaired.
如果我们提议的这条规则获得采纳,就应当追溯适用,好让全美国的收购会计口径统一起来——这和今天的乱象相去甚远。还有一个可以预言的结果:这套方案一旦落地,管理层搭建收购结构时会更明智,会依据对股东的真实影响、而非对报告利润的虚假影响,来决定用现金还是用股票。
If our proposed rule were to be adopted, it should be applied retroactively so that acquisition accounting would be consistent throughout America -- a far cry from what exists today. One prediction: If this plan were to take effect, managements would structure acquisitions more sensibly, deciding whether to use cash or stock based on the real consequences for their shareholders rather than on the unreal consequences for their reported earnings.
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收购乔丹家具时,我们选了一种能为股东挤出最多现金、却把报给各位的利润压到最低的做法。伯克希尔是用现金买下资产的,这种方式让我们在纳税申报上可以把由此产生的商誉分十五年摊销。显然,这笔税前扣除大大增厚了这门生意交出的现金。反过来,如果用现金买的是股权而非资产,那随之产生的商誉减记就不能抵税。这两种做法在经济上的差别相当大。
In our purchase of Jordan's, we followed a procedure that will maximize the cash produced for our shareholders but minimize the earnings we report to you. Berkshire purchased assets for cash, an approach that on our tax returns permits us to amortize the resulting goodwill over a 15-year period. Obviously, this tax deduction materially increases the amount of cash delivered by the business. In contrast, when stock, rather than assets, is purchased for cash, the resulting writeoffs of goodwill are not tax-deductible. The economic difference between these two approaches is substantial.
从收购方的经济角度看,最糟的一种交易是以股换股。这种情形下,往往付出高昂对价,被收购方的股票或资产计税基础却半点没有提高。要是被收购的实体日后被出售,其所有者可能得缴一大笔资本利得税(税率 35% 甚至更高),哪怕这笔出售在经济上其实是一场大亏。
From the economic standpoint of the acquiring company, the worst deal of all is a stock-for-stock acquisition. Here, a huge price is often paid without there being any step-up in the tax basis of either the stock of the acquiree or its assets. If the acquired entity is subsequently sold, its owner may owe a large capital gains tax (at a 35% or greater rate), even though the sale may truly be producing a major economic loss.
在伯克希尔,我们也做过几笔税务结构远非最优的交易。之所以做,是因为卖方坚持要用某种结构,而通盘权衡下来,我们仍认为这桩收购划算。但我们从未为了让账面数字更好看,就故意去做一笔结构低效的交易。
We have made some deals at Berkshire that used far-from-optimal tax structures. These deals occurred because the sellers insisted on a given structure and because, overall, we still felt the acquisition made sense. We have never done an inefficiently-structured deal, however, in order to make our figures look better.
报告收益的来源
Sources of Reported Earnings
下表列出了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。在这套列法里,购买法调整不摊到各自对应的具体业务上,而是汇总起来单独列示。这样一来,你就能看到:假如我们当初没收购这些业务,它们的收益本会是什么样子。基于第 61 页所述的理由,我们觉得这种列法对投资者和经理人比按 GAAP 列法更有用——GAAP 要求把购买溢价逐项摊到各家业务头上。当然,表中列出的收益总额,与我们经审计财务报表里的 GAAP 总额分毫不差。
The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. For the reasons discussed on page 61, this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-premiums to be charged off business-by-business. The total earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.
(单位:百万美元)
(in millions)
伯克希尔的份额
Berkshire's Share
净收益
of Net Earnings
(税后
(after taxes and
税前收益
Pre-Tax Earnings
少数股东权益)
minority interests)
1999 1998 1999 1998
1999 1998 1999 1998
经营利润:
Operating Earnings:
保险业务集团:
Insurance Group:
承保——再保险
Underwriting -- Reinsurance ....................
$(1,440) $(21) $(927) $(14)
$(1,440) $(21) $(927) $(14)
承保——GEICO
Underwriting -- GEICO ..........................
24 269 16 175
24 269 16 175
承保——其他原保险
Underwriting -- Other Primary .................
22 17 14 10
22 17 14 10
净投资收益
Net Investment Income ............................
2,482 974 1,764 731
2,482 974 1,764 731
《布法罗新闻》
Buffalo News ...........................................
55 53 34 32
55 53 34 32
金融与金融产品业务
Finance and Financial Products Businesses
125 205 86 133
125 205 86 133
飞安国际
Flight Services .........................................
225 181 (1) 132 110 (1)
225 181 (1) 132 110 (1)
家居用品
Home Furnishings ....................................
79 (2) 72 46 (2) 41
79 (2) 72 46 (2) 41
冰雪皇后(International Dairy Queen)
International Dairy Queen ........................
56 58 35 35
56 58 35 35
珠宝
Jewelry ...................................................
51 39 31 23
51 39 31 23
斯科特-费泽(不含金融业务)
Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation)
147 137 92 85
147 137 92 85
喜诗糖果
See's Candies .........................................
74 62 46 40
74 62 46 40
鞋业
Shoe Group ............................................
17 33 11 23
17 33 11 23
收购会计调整
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments .........
(739) (123) (648) (118)
(739) (123) (648) (118)
利息费用
Interest Expense
(3) (109) (100) (70) (63)
(3) ............................... (109) (100) (70) (63)
股东指定捐款
Shareholder-Designated Contributions ....
(17) (17) (11) (11)
(17) (17) (11) (11)
其他
Other ......................................................
33 60 (4) 20 45 (4)
33 60 (4) 20 45 (4)
经营利润
Operating Earnings ....................................
1,085 1,899 671 1,277
1,085 1,899 671 1,277
投资已实现收益
Capital Gains from Investments .................
1,365 2,415 886 1,553
1,365 2,415 886 1,553
所有实体总收益
Total Earnings - All Entities .......................
$2,450 $4,314 $1,557 $ 2,830
$2,450 $4,314 $1,557 $ 2,830
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=====
=====
=====
=====
=====
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(1)包括自 1998 年 8 月 7 日起的 Executive Jet。
(1) Includes Executive Jet from August 7, 1998.
(3)
(3)
不含金融业务利息费用。
Excludes interest expense of Finance Businesses.
(2)包含乔丹家具自 1999 年 11 月 13 日起的数据。
(2) Includes Jordan's Furniture from November 13, 1999.
(4)包含通用再保险 1998 年 10 天的经营数据。
(4) Includes General Re operations for ten days in 1998.
1999 年,我们旗下绝大多数制造、零售和服务业务都取得了出色的业绩。例外是德克斯特鞋业,而这里的业绩不济,并非管理不善所致:论技能、干劲和对工作的投入,德克斯特的高管丝毫不逊于我们其他经理人。问题在于,我们的鞋主要在美国本土制造,而本土厂商想有效参与竞争,如今已极为困难。1999 年,全美消费者买下的约 13 亿双鞋中,约有 93% 来自海外——在那里,极廉价的劳动力是常态。
Almost all of our manufacturing, retailing and service businesses had excellent results in 1999. The exception was Dexter Shoe, and there the shortfall did not occur because of managerial problems: In skills, energy and devotion to their work, the Dexter executives are every bit the equal of our other managers. But we manufacture shoes primarily in the U.S., and it has become extremely difficult for domestic producers to compete effectively. In 1999, approximately 93% of the 1.3 billion pairs of shoes purchased in this country came from abroad, where extremely low-cost labor is the rule.
把德克斯特和 H. H. 布朗合在一起看,我们目前是美国国内最大的鞋类制造商,而且大概率能继续保持这个地位。我们在美国工厂里拥有一批忠诚而技艺精湛的工人,我们希望能保住这里的每一个岗位。然而,为了维持生存,我们正在把越来越多的产量转向海外。在此过程中,我们发生了数目可观的遣散费和异地安置成本,这些都已反映在表中所列的利润里。
Counting both Dexter and H. H. Brown, we are currently the leading domestic manufacturer of shoes, and we are likely to continue to be. We have loyal, highly-skilled workers in our U.S. plants, and we want to retain every job here that we can. Nevertheless, in order to remain viable, we are sourcing more of our output internationally. In doing that, we have incurred significant severance and relocation costs that are included in the earnings we show in the table.
几年前,我们旗下拥有 200 家门店的珠宝企业赫尔兹伯格钻石,需要做一轮经营调整,才能把利润率恢复到合理水平。在杰夫·科门特的带领下,这项任务完成了,利润随之大幅反弹。鞋业这边,我们有哈罗德·阿尔方德、彼得·伦德、弗兰克·鲁尼和吉姆·伊斯勒掌舵,我相信未来几年同样会看到类似的好转。
A few years back, Helzberg's, our 200-store jewelry operation, needed to make operating adjustments to restore margins to appropriate levels. Under Jeff Comment's leadership, the job was done and profits have dramatically rebounded. In the shoe business, where we have Harold Alfond, Peter Lunder, Frank Rooney and Jim Issler in charge, I believe we will see a similar improvement over the next few years.
喜诗糖果值得专门记上一笔,因为它去年的经营利润率创下了 24% 的纪录。自 1972 年我们以 2,500 万美元买下喜诗以来,它已累计创造 8.57 亿美元税前利润。而且,尽管规模不断增长,这门生意所需的额外资本却极少。这份业绩要归功于查克·哈金斯。收购当天,查理和我就让他全权负责,他对产品品质和亲切服务的执着坚持,让顾客、员工和股东都从中受益。
See's Candies deserves a special comment, given that it achieved a record operating margin of 24% last year. Since we bought See's for $25 million in 1972, it has earned $857 million pre-tax. And, despite its growth, the business has required very little additional capital. Give the credit for this performance to Chuck Huggins. Charlie and I put him in charge the day of our purchase, and his fanatical insistence on both product quality and friendly service has rewarded customers, employees and owners.
查克一年比一年出色。他 46 岁接手喜诗时,公司的税前利润(以百万美元计)大约是他年龄的 10%;如今他 74 岁,这个比例已经升到了 100%。自从发现了这条数学关系——不妨称之为“哈金斯定律”——之后,查理和我现在光是想想查克的生日,就会高兴得飘飘然。
Chuck gets better every year. When he took charge of See's at age 46, the company's pre-tax profit, expressed in millions, was about 10% of his age. Today he's 74, and the ratio has increased to 100%. Having discovered this mathematical relationship -- let's call it Huggins' Law -- Charlie and I now become giddy at the mere thought of Chuck's birthday.
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- * * * * * * * * * * *
关于我们各项业务的更多信息,请见第 39 至 54 页,那里同时也按 GAAP 口径列报了我们的分部利润。此外,在第 63 至 69 页,我们把伯克希尔的财务数据按非 GAAP 口径重排为四个分部——这种列示方式,恰好对应查理和我看待这家公司的逻辑。
Additional information about our various businesses is given on pages 39 - 54, where you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. In addition, on pages 63 - 69, we have rearranged Berkshire's financial data into four segments on a non-GAAP basis, a presentation that corresponds to the way Charlie and I think about the company.
透视盈余
Look-Through Earnings
对伯克希尔的经济进展而言,报告利润并非一个充分的衡量指标,原因之一在于:前面表格所呈列的数字,只计入了我们从被投资方那里收到的股息——而这些股息,通常只占我们按持股比例应享利润的一小部分。我们倒并不介意利润以这种分派方式分配,因为总体来看,被投资方留存下来的那部分利润,在我们眼里比分派出来的那部分更有价值。理由很简单:我们的被投资方往往有机会将这些利润以高回报率进行再投资。既然如此,我们又何必一定要它们分出来呢?
Reported earnings are an inadequate measure of economic progress at Berkshire, in part because the numbers shown in the table presented earlier include only the dividends we receive from investees -- though these dividends typically represent only a small fraction of the earnings attributable to our ownership. Not that we mind this division of money, since on balance we regard the undistributed earnings of investees as more valuable to us than the portion paid out. The reason for our thinking is simple: Our investees often have the opportunity to reinvest earnings at high rates of return. So why should we want them paid out?
不过,为了呈现比报告利润更贴近伯克希尔经济现实的图景,我们采用了“透视盈余”这一概念。按我们的计算方式,它由以下部分构成:(1)上一节所呈报的经营利润;加上(2)我们在主要被投资方留存经营利润中所应占的份额——按照 GAAP 会计规则,这部分并未体现于我们的利润之中;再减去(3)对税款的计提——假如被投资方将这部分留存利润悉数分派给伯克希尔,我们本应为此缴纳的税款。在计算此处的“经营利润”时,我们剔除了购买法会计调整、资本利得,以及其他重大的非经常性项目。
To depict something closer to economic reality at Berkshire than reported earnings, though, we employ the concept of "look-through" earnings. As we calculate these, they consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) our share of the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. When tabulating "operating earnings" here, we exclude purchase-accounting adjustments as well as capital gains and other major non-recurring items.
下表列出了我们 1999 年的透视盈余,但我得提醒各位:这些数字充其量只是近似值,因为它们建立在诸多主观判断之上。(这些被投资方支付给我们的股息,已经包含在第 13 页所列的经营利润明细之中,主要列于“保险集团:净投资收益”项下。)
The following table sets forth our 1999 look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures can be no more than approximate, since they are based on a number of judgment calls. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 13, mostly under "Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.")
伯克希尔的近似值
Berkshire's Approximate
伯克希尔应占的未分配利润
Berkshire's Share of Undistributed
伯克希尔的主要投资对象
Berkshire's Major Investees
年末持股比例(1)
Ownership at Yearend (1)
经营利润(单位:百万美元)(2)
Operating Earnings (in millions) (2)
美国运通公司
American Express Company ...........
11.3% $228
11.3% $228
可口可乐公司
The Coca-Cola Company ...............
8.1% 144
8.1% 144
房地美(Freddie Mac)
Freddie Mac ..................................
8.6% 127
8.6% 127
吉列公司
The Gillette Company ....................
9.0% 53
9.0% 53
M&T Bank
M&T Bank ...................................
6.5% 17
6.5% 17
《华盛顿邮报》公司
The Washington Post Company .....
18.3% 30
18.3% 30
富国银行
Wells Fargo & Company ...............
3.6% 108
3.6% 108
伯克希尔在主要被投资公司中享有的未分配收益份额
Berkshire's share of undistributed earnings of major investees
707
707
对这些未分配被投资公司收益估算的所得税(3)
Hypothetical tax on these undistributed investee earnings (3)
(99)
(99)
伯克希尔报告的经营利润
Reported operating earnings of Berkshire
1,318
1,318
伯克希尔的透视盈余总额
Total look-through earnings of Berkshire
$ 1,926
$ 1,926
=====
=====
(1)不包含可分配给少数股东的股份
(1) Does not include shares allocable to minority interests
(2)按年内平均持股比例计算
(2) Calculated on average ownership for the year
(3)使用的税率为 14%,这是伯克希尔就其收到的股息所适用的税率
(3) The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on the dividends it receives
投资
Investments
下面列出我们的普通股投资。截至 1999 年底,市值超过 7.5 亿美元的投资项目单独列示。
Below we present our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $750 million at the end of 1999 are itemized.
12/31/99
12/31/99
股数
Shares
公司
Company
成本*
Cost*
市值
Market
(单位:百万美元)
(dollars in millions)
50,536,900
50,536,900
美国运通公司(American Express Company)
American Express Company .......
$1,470 $ 8,402 200,000,000
$1,470 $ 8,402 200,000,000
可口可乐公司(The Coca-Cola Company)
The Coca-Cola Company ........
1,299 11,650 59,559,300
1,299 11,650 59,559,300
房地美(Freddie Mac)
Freddie Mac ................
294 2,803 96,000,000
294 2,803 96,000,000
吉列公司(The Gillette Company)
The Gillette Company ..........
600 3,954 1,727,765
600 3,954 1,727,765
《华盛顿邮报》公司(The Washington Post Company)
The Washington Post Company .......
11 960 59,136,680
11 960 59,136,680
富国银行(Wells Fargo & Company)
Wells Fargo & Company ........
349 2,391
349 2,391
其他
Others ......................
4,180 6,848
4,180 6,848
普通股合计
Total Common Stocks .............
$8,203 $37,008
$8,203 $37,008
=====
=====
======
======
- 此处成本指计税基础成本,合计比基于 GAAP 的成本低 6.91 亿美元。
- Represents tax-basis cost which, in aggregate, is $691 million less than GAAP cost.
1999 年,我们的投资组合几乎没有变动。前面说过,我们重仓的几家公司去年业绩令人失望。尽管如此,我们相信这些公司拥有重要的竞争优势,且这些优势会长期持续。这种特质能带来良好的长期投资回报,查理和我偶尔自认能识别出来。可更多时候,我们识别不了——至少无法很有把握地做出判断。顺带一提,这也解释了我们为什么不持有科技股:即便我们和大众一样认同,科技公司的产品和服务将深刻改变社会,我们的难题——这难题靠钻研也解不开——在于看不透科技领域里,究竟哪些参与者握有确实持久的竞争优势。
We made few portfolio changes in 1999. As I mentioned earlier, several of the companies in which we have large investments had disappointing business results last year. Nevertheless, we believe these companies have important competitive advantages that will endure over time. This attribute, which makes for good long-term investment results, is one Charlie and I occasionally believe we can identify. More often, however, we can't -- not at least with a high degree of conviction. This explains, by the way, why we don't own stocks of tech companies, even though we share the general view that our society will be transformed by their products and services. Our problem -- which we can't solve by studying up -- is that we have no insights into which participants in the tech field possess a truly durable competitive advantage.
还得补一句:对科技缺乏洞察,这一点并不让我们苦恼。说到底,在众多商业领域,查理和我并无特殊的资本配置专长。例如,面对专利、制造工艺或地质前景的评估,我们提供不了任何有价值的见解。因此,这些领域的判断,我们干脆就不去做了。
Our lack of tech insights, we should add, does not distress us. After all, there are a great many business areas in which Charlie and I have no special capital-allocation expertise. For instance, we bring nothing to the table when it comes to evaluating patents, manufacturing processes or geological prospects. So we simply don't get into judgments in those fields.
我们若真有长处,那便是能清醒地认识到自己何时稳稳处在能力圈之内,何时又正逼近边缘。预测那些身处快速变化行业的公司的长期经济前景,早已远远超出了我们的能力圈边界。若有人自称在这些行业有预测的本事——且其言论似乎又得到股市走势的验证——我们既不羡慕,也不效仿,只管坚守自己看得懂的领域。万一我们偏离了这一点,那一定是无心之失,绝不会是因为我们按捺不住,以希望替代了理性。所幸,几乎可以肯定的是,伯克希尔总能时不时地在我们所划定的能力圈内,找到施展拳脚的机会。
If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter. Predicting the long-term economics of companies that operate in fast-changing industries is simply far beyond our perimeter. If others claim predictive skill in those industries -- and seem to have their claims validated by the behavior of the stock market -- we neither envy nor emulate them. Instead, we just stick with what we understand. If we stray, we will have done so inadvertently, not because we got restless and substituted hope for rationality. Fortunately, it's almost certain there will be opportunities from time to time for Berkshire to do well within the circle we've staked out.
眼下,我们已经持有的那些好生意,其价格实在算不上有吸引力。换句话说,我们对这些生意的看好程度,远胜于对它们股票的感觉,这也是我们没有对现有持仓进行加码的原因。尽管如此,我们也未曾大手笔地减仓:如果必须在“价格舒服但生意成疑”与“生意舒服但价格成疑”之间二选一,我们坚定地选择后者。而最让我们心动的,永远是那种生意舒服、价格也舒服的机会。
Right now, the prices of the fine businesses we already own are just not that attractive. In other words, we feel much better about the businesses than their stocks. That's why we haven't added to our present holdings. Nevertheless, we haven't yet scaled back our portfolio in a major way: If the choice is between a questionable business at a comfortable price or a comfortable business at a questionable price, we much prefer the latter. What really gets our attention, however, is a comfortable business at a comfortable price.
我们对自己所持证券价格的保留态度,同样也适用于整体股价水平。我们从不尝试预测股市下个月或下一年的走向,现在也不打算这么做。但正如我在随附的文章中所指出的,眼下股票投资者对未来回报的预期,似乎乐观得有些离谱。
Our reservations about the prices of securities we own apply also to the general level of equity prices. We have never attempted to forecast what the stock market is going to do in the next month or the next year, and we are not trying to do that now. But, as I point out in the enclosed article, equity investors currently seem wildly optimistic in their expectations about future returns.
我们视企业利润的增长大体系于该国的商业活动(GDP),而我们预期的 GDP 实际增速在 3% 左右。此外,我们假设通胀率为 2%。查理和我对 2% 这个数字的准确性并无特别执念(conviction),但这正是市场当下的看法:通胀保值国债(TIPS)的收益率比标准国债低约两个百分点,如果你确信通胀率将会高于这一水平,那么只需买入 TIPS 并做空普通国债,便可从中获利。
We see the growth in corporate profits as being largely tied to the business done in the country (GDP), and we see GDP growing at a real rate of about 3%. In addition, we have hypothesized 2% inflation. Charlie and I have no particular conviction about the accuracy of 2%. However, it's the market's view: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield about two percentage points less than the standard treasury bond, and if you believe inflation rates are going to be higher than that, you can profit by simply buying TIPS and shorting Governments.
如果利润确实以约 5% 的速度随 GDP 同步增长,那么市场给予美国企业的估值不太可能比这高出太多。再算上些许股息,你最终从股票中获得的回报将远低于大多数投资者过往曾体验过的、或未来所期盼的水平。一旦投资者的预期变得更切合实际——这几乎必然会发生——市场的调整将可能相当剧烈,尤其是在那些投机活动密集的板块。
If profits do indeed grow along with GDP, at about a 5% rate, the valuation placed on American business is unlikely to climb by much more than that. Add in something for dividends, and you emerge with returns from equities that are dramatically less than most investors have either experienced in the past or expect in the future. If investor expectations become more realistic -- and they almost certainly will -- the market adjustment is apt to be severe, particularly in sectors in which speculation has been concentrated.
伯克希尔总有一天会迎来将大量现金投入股市的机会——对此我们深信不疑。但正如那首歌所唱,“谁知在何处,又待何时?”与此同时,如果有人开始向你大谈特谈这个“着了魔”的市场中那些极度癫狂角落里的门道,你不妨记住另一句歌词:“傻瓜总爱讲道理,智者从不费心去试。”
Berkshire will someday have opportunities to deploy major amounts of cash in equity markets -- we are confident of that. But, as the song goes, "Who knows where or when?" Meanwhile, if anyone starts explaining to you what is going on in the truly-manic portions of this "enchanted" market, you might remember still another line of song: "Fools give you reasons, wise men never try."
股票回购
Share Repurchases
最近,不少股东向我们提议,让伯克希尔回购自家股票。这些请求大多理由充分,但也有少数是建立在站不住脚的逻辑之上。
Recently, a number of shareholders have suggested to us that Berkshire repurchase its shares. Usually the requests were rationally based, but a few leaned on spurious logic.
只有同时满足以下条件,公司回购股票才是明智之举:第一,公司拥有超出近期业务所需的可用资金——包括现金和合理的举债能力;第二,按保守计算,公司的股票在市场上的交易价格低于其内在价值。对此,我们还要附加一条告诫:股东理应先获得估算这一价值所需的全部信息。否则,内部人便可能利用不知情的合伙人,只支付真实价值的一小部分就买走他们的权益。这种事情,我们偶尔也见过。当然,耍花招通常是为了把股价往上抬,而非向下压。
There is only one combination of facts that makes it advisable for a company to repurchase its shares: First, the company has available funds -- cash plus sensible borrowing capacity -- beyond the near-term needs of the business and, second, finds its stock selling in the market below its intrinsic value, conservatively-calculated. To this we add a caveat: Shareholders should have been supplied all the information they need for estimating that value. Otherwise, insiders could take advantage of their uninformed partners and buy out their interests at a fraction of true worth. We have, on rare occasions, seen that happen. Usually, of course, chicanery is employed to drive stock prices up, not down.
我所说的业务“需求”分为两类:第一,公司为维持其竞争地位而必须发生的支出(例如赫尔兹伯格钻石(Helzberg's)门店的翻新);第二,以业务增长为目标的非必要支出,管理层预期每一美元的开销都能带来超过一美元的价值(例如 R.C. 威利(R. C. Willey)向爱达荷州的扩张)。
The business "needs" that I speak of are of two kinds: First, expenditures that a company must make to maintain its competitive position (e.g., the remodeling of stores at Helzberg's) and, second, optional outlays, aimed at business growth, that management expects will produce more than a dollar of value for each dollar spent (R. C. Willey's expansion into Idaho).
当可用资金超出上述两类需求时,拥有偏好成长的股东群体的公司便可以收购新业务或回购股票。若公司股价远低于内在价值,回购往往是最明智的选择。在 20 世纪 70 年代中期,回购的明智性几乎是在对管理层大声疾呼,但几乎无人响应。在大多数情况下,那些付诸行动的公司为股东创造的财富,远高于采取其他替代方案。事实上,在整个 70 年代(以及之后断断续续的一些年头),我们都在寻找大举回购自身股票的公司。这往往是一个信号,暗示该公司既被低估,又由注重股东利益的管理层在经营。
When available funds exceed needs of those kinds, a company with a growth-oriented shareholder population can buy new businesses or repurchase shares. If a company's stock is selling well below intrinsic value, repurchases usually make the most sense. In the mid-1970s, the wisdom of making these was virtually screaming at managements, but few responded. In most cases, those that did made their owners much wealthier than if alternative courses of action had been pursued. Indeed, during the 1970s (and, spasmodically, for some years thereafter) we searched for companies that were large repurchasers of their shares. This often was a tipoff that the company was both undervalued and run by a shareholder-oriented management.
那样的日子已经一去不返。如今,回购蔚然成风,但往往多是为了一种说不出口、且在我们看来也不怎么光彩的理由:拉抬或支撑股价。当然,今天选择卖出的股东,无论买家是谁、动机为何,都会因此受益。但继续持有的股东,
That day is past. Now, repurchases are all the rage, but are all too often made for an unstated and, in our view, ignoble reason: to pump or support the stock price. The shareholder who chooses to sell today, of course, is benefitted by any buyer, whatever his origin or motives. But the continuing
则会因高于内在价值的回购而受损。花 1.1 美元去买 1 美元钞票,对于那些留下来的人而言,可不是一笔好买卖。
shareholder is penalized by repurchases above intrinsic value. Buying dollar bills for $1.10 is not good business for those who stick around.
查理和我坦承,我们只对一小部分上市股票有把握估算其内在价值,而且这还是在采用一个价值区间,而非某个看似精确的数字时。即便如此,在我们看来,如今许多正在实施回购的公司,其实是在以损害留守股东利益为代价,向离场的股东支付了过高的价格。替这些公司说句话,CEO 们对自家生意保持乐观本是人之常情,他们对这些生意的了解也远比我多。但我还是不禁觉得,如今太多的回购,与其说是出于提升每股价值的愿望,不如说是管理层为了“彰显信心”或追逐潮流。
Charlie and I admit that we feel confident in estimating intrinsic value for only a portion of traded equities and then only when we employ a range of values, rather than some pseudo-precise figure. Nevertheless, it appears to us that many companies now making repurchases are overpaying departing shareholders at the expense of those who stay. In defense of those companies, I would say that it is natural for CEOs to be optimistic about their own businesses. They also know a whole lot more about them than I do. However, I can't help but feel that too often today's repurchases are dictated by management's desire to "show confidence" or be in fashion rather than by a desire to enhance per-share value.
此外,有时公司也会宣称,回购是为了抵消那些以极低价格授予的股票期权在行权时所新增的股份。这种“高买低卖”的策略,许多倒霉的投资者都曾采用过——但绝非有意为之!然而,管理层似乎相当愉快地追随着这种有悖常理的行为。
Sometimes, too, companies say they are repurchasing shares to offset the shares issued when stock options granted at much lower prices are exercised. This "buy high, sell low" strategy is one many unfortunate investors have employed -- but never intentionally! Managements, however, seem to follow this perverse activity very cheerfully.
当然,期权授予和股票回购都可能各有各的道理——但即便如此,也不是因为这两件事在逻辑上非绑在一起不可。理性地说,公司回购股票还是增发股票,这个决定该各凭其理、独立而立。仅仅因为发过股票去满足期权——或出于任何别的缘由——并不意味着就该以高于内在价值的价格把股票买回来。反过来,一只股价远低于内在价值的股票,就该回购,不管之前有没有发过股(或将来会不会因未行权期权而发股)。
Of course, both option grants and repurchases may make sense -- but if that's the case, it's not because the two activities are logically related. Rationally, a company's decision to repurchase shares or to issue them should stand on its own feet. Just because stock has been issued to satisfy options -- or for any other reason -- does not mean that stock should be repurchased at a price above intrinsic value. Correspondingly, a stock that sells well below intrinsic value should be repurchased whether or not stock has previously been issued (or may be because of outstanding options).
你们应当知道,过去在某些时候,我因未进行回购而犯了错。当时我对伯克希尔价值的评估过于保守,或是对某些替代性资金用途过于热衷。我们因此错失了一些机会——不过在那些时点,伯克希尔的成交量太轻,我们就算想买也买不了多少,这意味着对每股价值的增益本就微乎其微。(以低于每股内在价值 25% 的折价回购一家公司 2% 的股份,最多也只能让每股内在价值提升约 0.5%——如果那笔资金原本可以另投于创造价值的行动,增益还会更小。)
<<<END P 2>>>
You should be aware that, at certain times in the past, I have erred in not making repurchases. My appraisal of Berkshire's value was then too conservative or I was too enthused about some alternative use of funds. We have therefore missed some opportunities -- though Berkshire's trading volume at these points was too light for us to have done much buying, which means that the gain in our per-share value would have been minimal. (A repurchase of, say, 2% of a company's shares at a 25% discount from per-share intrinsic value produces only a ½% gain in that value at most -- and even less if the funds could alternatively have been deployed in value-building moves.)
我们收到的一些来信,字里行间分明透着这样一层意思:写信人根本不在乎内在价值那一套,只想让我们高调宣布回购意向,好让股价涨起来(或至少别再往下掉)。若写信人打算明天就抛,这盘算对他自己而言倒也说得通——可他若打算长期持有,就该反过来盼股价下跌、且成交足够活跃,好让我们能大量买进。唯有如此,回购计划才可能惠及长期股东。
Some of the letters we've received clearly imply that the writer is unconcerned about intrinsic value considerations but instead wants us to trumpet an intention to repurchase so that the stock will rise (or quit going down). If the writer wants to sell tomorrow, his thinking makes sense -- for him! -- but if he intends to hold, he should instead hope the stock falls and trades in enough volume for us to buy a lot of it. That's the only way a repurchase program can have any real benefit for a continuing shareholder.
我们不会回购股票,除非我们判断伯克希尔的股价,按保守口径算,已远低于其内在价值。我们也不会去设法把股价往上说或往下压。(无论公开还是私下,我从没跟任何人说过要买或要卖伯克希尔的股票。)我们只会向所有股东——以及潜在股东——提供同样的、与估值相关的信息,正如换到对方的位置上,我们自己也希望拿到这些信息。
We will not repurchase shares unless we believe Berkshire stock is selling well below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated. Nor will we attempt to talk the stock up or down. (Neither publicly or privately have I ever told anyone to buy or sell Berkshire shares.) Instead we will give all shareholders -- and potential shareholders -- the same valuation-related information we would wish to have if our positions were reversed.
最近,当 A 股跌破 45,000 美元时,我们动过回购的念头。不过我们决定暂缓——就算真要买,也要等股东有机会读完这份报告再说。倘若我们最终认定回购划算,也极少会直接挂单到纽约证券交易所(简称“纽交所”)。相反,我们会去接那些以不高于纽交所买价、直接报给我们的卖盘。你若想出手,让你的经纪人打电话给马克·米勒德,电话 402-346-1400。成交后,经纪人既可把它记在“第三市场”,也可记在纽交所。如果 B 股相对 A 股折价超过 2%,我们会优先买 B 股。少于 10 股 A 股、或 50 股 B 股的交易,我们一概不做。
Recently, when the A shares fell below $45,000, we considered making repurchases. We decided, however, to delay buying, if indeed we elect to do any , until shareholders have had the chance to review this report. If we do find that repurchases make sense, we will only rarely place bids on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE"). Instead, we will respond to offers made directly to us at or below the NYSE bid. If you wish to offer stock, have your broker call Mark Millard at 402-346-1400. When a trade occurs, the broker can either record it in the "third market" or on the NYSE. We will favor purchase of the B shares if they are selling at more than a 2% discount to the A. We will not engage in transactions involving fewer than 10 shares of A or 50 shares of B.
有一点请务必看清:我们绝不会为了刹住伯克希尔股价的下跌而买入。我们出手,只会是在我们相信回购是对公司资金一种有吸引力的运用之时。往好里说,回购对我们股票内在价值未来的增速,也顶多只有极其轻微的作用。
Please be clear about one point: We will never make purchases with the intention of stemming a decline in Berkshire's price. Rather we will make them if and when we believe that they represent an attractive use of the Company's money. At best, repurchases are likely to have only a very minor effect on the future rate of gain in our stock's intrinsic value.
股东指定捐款
Shareholder-Designated Contributions
1999 年,伯克希尔的股东指定捐赠计划中,约 97.3% 的合资格股份参与其中,捐赠总额达 1,720 万美元。该计划的完整说明见第 70 至 71 页。
About 97.3% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 1999 shareholder-designated contributions program, with contributions totaling $17.2 million. A full description of the program appears on pages 70 - 71.
这项计划开展 19 年来,伯克希尔累计遵照股东的指示,捐出了 1.47 亿美元。伯克希尔其余的捐赠,由各子公司自行完成——它们沿用被收购前一贯的慈善路子(唯一的例外是,这些子公司原先的所有者,如今要自己承担个人的慈善捐助)。1999 年,我们的子公司合计捐出 1,380 万美元,其中包括 250 万美元的实物捐赠。
Cumulatively, over the 19 years of the program, Berkshire has made contributions of $147 million pursuant to the instructions of our shareholders. The rest of Berkshire's giving is done by our subsidiaries, which stick to the philanthropic patterns that prevailed before they were acquired (except that their former owners themselves take on the responsibility for their personal charities). In aggregate, our subsidiaries made contributions of $13.8 million in 1999, including in-kind donations of $2.5 million.
要参加往后的捐赠计划,你所持的 A 类股必须登记在真实所有人名下,而不是券商、银行或存管机构的代持名下。凡在 2000 年 8 月 31 日仍未如此登记的股份,将没有资格参加 2000 年的计划。收到我们寄去的捐赠表后,请尽快寄回,免得被搁在一边、忘个精光。逾期收到的指定,恕不受理。
To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 2000, will be ineligible for the 2000 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten. Designations received after the due date will not be honored.
股东大会
The Annual Meeting
今年的“资本家伍德斯托克”周末,形式会和近几年略有不同。我们不得不做点调整,因为过去三年一直很给力的阿克萨本体育馆正在逐步关停。于是,我们把地点挪到市民礼堂(它坐落在国会大道上,第 18 街和
This year's Woodstock Weekend for Capitalists will follow a format slightly different from that of recent years. We need to make a change because the Aksarben Coliseum, which served us well the past three years, is gradually being closed down. Therefore, we are relocating to the Civic Auditorium (which is on Capitol Avenue between 18 th
第 19 街之间,就在双树酒店后面),这是奥马哈唯一另一处能容下我们所需空间的场馆。
and 19 th , behind the Doubletree Hotel), the only other facility in Omaha offering the space we require.
不过,市民礼堂位于奥马哈市中心,我们若在工作日在那儿开会,准会闹出一场停车和交通的噩梦。所以,我们把股东大会定在 4 月 29 日星期六:早上 7 点开门,8 点半放电影,9 点半正式开会。和往年一样,会议将开到下午 3 点半,中午留一段短暂的用餐时间,市民礼堂的小卖部会供应食物。
The Civic, however, is located in downtown Omaha, and we would create a parking and traffic nightmare if we were to meet there on a weekday. We will, therefore, convene on Saturday, April 29, with the doors opening at 7 a.m., the movie beginning at 8:30 and the meeting itself commencing at 9:30. As in the past, we will run until 3:30 with a short break at noon for food, which will be available at the Civic's concession stands.
随本报告附上的委托材料里,有一份说明,告诉你如何领取进场以及参加其他活动所需的凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车,我们又一次请来美国运通(800-799-6634)为你提供专门协助。照老规矩,我们会安排大巴,从各大酒店把大家接到会场。散会后,大巴会返回酒店,也会开往内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝和机场。即便如此,你多半还是会觉得自己有辆车更方便。
An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. In our normal fashion, we will run buses from the larger hotels to the meeting. After the meeting, the buses will make trips back to the hotels and to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim's and the airport. Even so, you are likely to find a car useful.
2002 年和 2003 年的股东大会,我们仍定在惯例的 5 月第一个星期六。但 2001 年那个星期六,市民礼堂已被预订,所以我们改在 4 月 28 日开。无论哪个周末,市民礼堂都能很好地满足我们:到时候,附近的停车场、车库以及街边都会有充裕的车位。我们还能给参展商腾出大得多的空间。所以,克服了我一贯的商业上的拘谨之后,我会张罗着让各位在市民礼堂看到琳琅满目、可供选购的伯克希尔产品。给个参照:1999 年,股东们买走了 3,059 磅喜诗糖果、价值 16,155 美元的世界图书产品、1,928 双德克斯特鞋、895 套 Quikut 刀具、1,752 个印着伯克希尔·哈撒韦标志的高尔夫球,以及 3,446 件伯克希尔服装。我相信你们今年还能买得更多。
We have scheduled the meeting in 2002 and 2003 on the customary first Saturday in May. In 2001, however, the Civic is already booked on that Saturday, so we will meet on April 28. The Civic should fit our needs well on any weekend, since there will then be more than ample parking in nearby lots and garages as well as on streets. We will also be able to greatly enlarge the space we give exhibitors. So, overcoming my normal commercial reticence, I will see that you have a wide display of Berkshire products at the Civic that you can purchase . As a benchmark, in 1999 shareholders bought 3,059 pounds of See's candy, $16,155 of World Book Products, 1,928 pairs of Dexter shoes, 895 sets of Quikut knives, 1,752 golf balls with the Berkshire Hathaway logo and 3,446 items of Berkshire apparel. I know you can do better.
去年,我们还首次卖出了至少八份行政喷气(Executive Jet)飞机的部分产权。周六和周日,我们会在奥马哈机场摆出一排不同机型供你参观。想看哪一架,向市民礼堂的 EJA 代表打听即可。
Last year, we also initiated the sale of at least eight fractions of Executive Jet aircraft. We will again have an array of models at the Omaha airport for your inspection on Saturday and Sunday. Ask an EJA representative at the Civic about viewing any of these planes.
冰雪皇后也会到市民礼堂设点,并再次把全部所得捐给儿童奇迹网络。去年我们卖出了 4,586 根 Dilly® 雪糕、软糖雪糕和香草/橙味雪糕。此外,GEICO 也会设一个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇,随时为你报出车险价格。多数情况下,GEICO 还能给你一份专属的股东折扣。带上你现有保单的详细信息,来看看我们能不能替你省下一笔。
Dairy Queen will also be on hand at the Civic and again will donate all proceeds to the Children's Miracle Network. Last year we sold 4,586 Dilly® bars, fudge bars and vanilla/orange bars. Additionally, GEICO will have a booth that will be staffed by a number of our top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to offer you a special shareholder's discount. Bring the details of your existing insurance, and check out whether we can save you some money.
最后,阿吉特·贾恩和他的同事也会到场,提供两样东西:免佣金的年金,以及一份保额高得惊人、别处极难买到的责任险。找阿吉特聊聊,学学怎么护住你自己和家人,免得被一纸 1,000 万美元的判决砸中。
Finally, Ajit Jain and his associates will be on hand to offer both no-commission annuities and a liability policy with jumbo limits of a size rarely available elsewhere. Talk to Ajit and learn how to protect yourself and your family against a $10 million judgment.
内布拉斯加家具城刚翻新过的卖场,坐落在第 72 街上、道奇街与太平洋街之间那片 75 英亩的地块,工作日上午 10 点到晚上 9 点营业,周六周日上午 10 点到下午 6 点。这家卖场的商品之齐全无人能及——家具、电子产品、家电、地毯、电脑——而且样样都是打不过的低价。1999 年,家具城光是第 72 街这一处,就做了 3 亿多美元的生意;在一个人口才 67.5 万的都会区里,这简直是个不折不扣的奇迹。4 月 27 日(星期四)到 5 月 1 日(星期一)期间,任何凭大会凭证到场的股东,都能享受通常只给员工的折扣。这项优惠我们已连着给了股东好几年,销售额一次比一次惊人。去年为期五天的“伯克希尔周末”里,家具城的成交额达到 798 万美元,比 1998 年增长 26%,比 1997 年增长 51%。
NFM's newly remodeled complex, located on a 75-acre site on 72 nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays. This operation offers an unrivaled breadth of merchandise -- furniture, electronics, appliances, carpets and computers -- all at can't-be-beat prices. In 1999 NFM did more than $300 million of business at its 72 nd Street location, which in a metropolitan area of 675,000 is an absolute miracle. During the Thursday, April 27 to Monday, May 1 period, any shareholder presenting his or her meeting credential will receive a discount that is customarily given only to employees. We have offered this break to shareholders the last couple of years, and sales have been amazing. In last year's five-day "Berkshire Weekend," NFM's volume was $7.98 million, an increase of 26% from 1998 and 51% from 1997.
波仙珠宝店——全美最大的珠宝店,仅次于蒂芙尼在曼哈顿的旗舰店——将为股东专门办两场活动。第一场是 4 月 28 日星期五晚上 6 点到 10 点的香槟甜点会;第二场是重头戏,4 月 30 日星期日上午 9 点到下午 6 点,那天我和查理会亲临现场,在销售单上签名。股东价从星期四一直有效到星期一,所以你若想避开人潮——星期五晚上和星期日最挤——不妨挑别的时段来,报上股东身份即可。星期六,我们营业到晚上 7 点。波仙的毛利率比它几家主要对手整整低 20 个百分点,所以做好准备,被我们的价格和货色一举震住吧。
Borsheim's -- the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany's Manhattan store -- will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a champagne and dessert party from 6 p.m.-10 p.m. on Friday, April 28. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday, April 30. On that day, Charlie and I will be on hand to sign sales tickets . Shareholder prices will be available Thursday through Monday, so if you wish to avoid the largest crowds, which will form on Friday evening and Sunday, come at other times and identify yourself as a shareholder. On Saturday, we will be open until 7 p.m. Borsheim's operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, so be prepared to be blown away by both our prices and selection.
在波仙珠宝店外的商场里,我们又一次请来鲍勃·哈曼——桥牌史上最出色的牌手——在星期日与股东们对局。我们还会另摆几张桌子,安排几位别的高手坐镇。1999 年,想上桌的人比桌子多,今年我们会把这个问题解决掉。
In the mall outside of Borsheim's, we will again have Bob Hamman -- the best bridge player the game has ever seen -- available to play with our shareholders on Sunday. We will also have a few other experts playing at additional tables. In 1999, we had more demand than tables, but we will cure that problem this year.
两届全美国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫,会再次在商场里蒙着眼,同所有前来挑战的人对弈。他告诉我,这样蒙眼的情形下,他还从没同时下过四盘以上,不过今年也许会把上限提到五盘、六盘。你若是棋迷,尽管去会一会帕特里克——但落第一子之前,记得先查验一下他的眼罩。
Patrick Wolff, twice US chess champion, will again be in the mall playing blindfolded against all comers. He tells me that he has never tried to play more than four games simultaneously while handicapped this way but might try to bump that limit to five or six this year. If you're a chess fan, take Patrick on -- but be sure to check his blindfold before your first move.
戈拉特牛排馆——我最爱的那一家——将在 4 月 30 日星期日再次为伯克希尔股东独家营业,从下午 4 点一直供餐到午夜前后。请记住,星期日去戈拉特,非订座不可,没预订进不了门。要订座,请在 4 月 3 日(但别提前)拨打 402-551-3733。倘若星期日的座位订满了,不妨挑你在城里的另一个晚上去。我大约每周都去戈拉特做一次“品质抽检”,可以负责任地说:他们家那份三分熟的 T 骨牛排(配上双份煎土豆丝),至今仍是全国无出其右的。
Gorat's -- my favorite steakhouse -- will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, April 30, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until about midnight. Please remember that you can't come to Gorat's on Sunday without a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 3 ( but not before ). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat's on one of the other evenings you will be in town. I make a "quality check" of Gorat's about once a week and can report that their rare T-bone (with a double order of hash browns) is still unequaled throughout the country.
老规矩,星期六晚上 7 点,罗森布拉特球场会有一场棒球赛。今年是奥马哈金钉队对阵艾奥瓦小熊队。早点来,因为好戏在开赛之前。去年到场的人,亲眼看到你们的董事长向厄尼·班克斯投球。
The usual baseball game will be held at Rosenblatt Stadium at 7 p.m. on Saturday night. This year the Omaha Golden Spikes will play the Iowa Cubs. Come early, because that's when the real action takes place. Those who attended last year saw your Chairman pitch to Ernie Banks.
那场对决,堪称体育界期盼已久的世纪较量。头几球投出去之后——那几球并非我的最佳水准,可我又何曾投出过最佳水准?——我朝厄尼扔了一记内角高球,就是要让他知道场上谁说了算。厄尼冲向投手丘,我冲向本垒板。只是这一撞终究没撞上,因为还没等碰到对方,我俩就都累趴下了。
This encounter proved to be the titanic duel that the sports world had long awaited. After the first few pitches -- which were not my best, but when have I ever thrown my best? -- I fired a brushback at Ernie just to let him know who was in command. Ernie charged the mound, and I charged the plate. But a clash was avoided because we became exhausted before reaching each other.
厄尼对自己去年的表现不满意,整个冬天都在研究比赛录像。你们大概知道,厄尼当小熊队球员那些年,职业生涯共轰出 512 支本垒打。如今他看穿了我投球里的破绽,打算在 4 月 29 日拿下第 513 支。可我呢,也学了几招新法子,好把我那记“飘忽球”藏得更深。来看看这场对决吧。
Ernie was dissatisfied with his performance last year and has been studying the game films all winter. As you may know, Ernie had 512 home runs in his career as a Cub. Now that he has spotted telltale weaknesses in my delivery, he expects to get #513 on April 29. I, however, have learned new ways to disguise my "flutterball." Come and watch this matchup.
还得补一句:我已经从厄尼那儿讨到一个承诺——他不会朝我打一记“回头炮”,因为那种球我绝对来不及躲。我的反应快慢跟伍迪·艾伦有一拼,他说自己反应慢到有一回被两个人推着走的车给撞了。
I should add that I have extracted a promise from Ernie that he will not hit a "come-backer" at me since I would never be able to duck in time to avoid it. My reflexes are like Woody Allen's, who said his were so slow that he was once hit by a car being pushed by two guys.
我们的委托说明书里,既有领取球赛门票的指引,也有一大堆别的信息,能帮你在奥马哈玩得尽兴。来国会大道,加入这场“资本家的狂欢”吧。
Our proxy statement contains instructions about obtaining tickets to the game and also a large quantity of other information that should help you enjoy your visit in Omaha. Join us at the Capitalist Caper on Capitol Avenue.
2000 年 3 月 1 日
March 1, 2000
沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board