2004 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 13913 词
译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文,也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。
打开来源正文

注:下表载于印刷版年报中董事长信函的对面页,信函中亦有提及。伯克希尔的业绩表现 vs. 标普 500 指数

Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman's Letter and is referred to in that letter. Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

伯克希尔每股账面价值变动标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化相对结果
年度(1)(2)(1)-(2)
196523.810.013.8
196620.3(11.7)32.0
196711.030.9(19.9)
196819.011.08.0
196916.2(8.4)24.6
197012.03.98.1
197116.414.61.8
197221.718.92.8
19734.7(14.8)19.5
19745.5(26.4)31.9
197521.937.2(15.3)
197659.323.635.7
197731.9(7.4)39.3
197824.06.417.6
197935.718.217.5
198019.332.3(13.0)
198131.4(5.0)36.4
198240.021.418.6
198332.322.49.9
198413.66.17.5
198548.231.616.6
198626.118.67.5
198719.55.114.4
198820.116.63.5
198944.431.712.7
19907.4(3.1)10.5
199139.630.59.1
199220.37.612.7
199314.310.14.2
199413.91.312.6
199543.137.65.5
199631.823.08.8
199734.133.4.7
199848.328.619.7
1999.521.0(20.5)
20006.5(9.1)15.6
2001(6.2)(11.9)5.7
200210.0(22.1)32.1
200321.028.7(7.7)
200410.510.9(.4)
1965-2004年平均年度收益21.910.411.5
整体收益——1964-2004286,8655,318
in Per-Share Book Value of BerkshireAnnual Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends IncludedRelative Results
Year(1)(2)(1)-(2)
196523.810.013.8
196620.3(11.7)32.0
196711.030.9(19.9)
196819.011.08.0
196916.2(8.4)24.6
197012.03.98.1
197116.414.61.8
197221.718.92.8
19734.7(14.8)19.5
19745.5(26.4)31.9
197521.937.2(15.3)
197659.323.635.7
197731.9(7.4)39.3
197824.06.417.6
197935.718.217.5
198019.332.3(13.0)
198131.4(5.0)36.4
198240.021.418.6
198332.322.49.9
198413.66.17.5
198548.231.616.6
198626.118.67.5
198719.55.114.4
198820.116.63.5
198944.431.712.7
19907.4(3.1)10.5
199139.630.59.1
199220.37.612.7
199314.310.14.2
199413.91.312.6
199543.137.65.5
199631.823.08.8
199734.133.4.7
199848.328.619.7
1999.521.0(20.5)
20006.5(9.1)15.6
2001(6.2)(11.9)5.7
200210.0(22.1)32.1
200321.028.7(7.7)
200410.510.9(.4)
Average Annual Gain — 1965-200421.910.411.5
Overall Gain — 1964-2004286,8655,318

说明:数据按日历年统计,但有如下例外:1965 年和 1966 年,截至 9 月 30 日的年度;1967 年,截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。自 1979 年起,会计规则要求保险公司按市价而非以往要求的成本与市价孰低法来估值其持有的权益证券。在本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年以前的业绩已按变更后的规则重新表述。其他所有方面,业绩均按最初报告的数字计算。标普 500 指数的数字为税前数据,而伯克希尔的数字为税后数据。如果一家像伯克希尔这样的公司仅仅持有标普 500 指数并计提相应的税款,其业绩在指数显示正回报的年份会落后于标普 500,但在指数显示负回报的年份则会超过标普 500。多年累计下来,税收成本会导致总体差距相当大。

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

2
2

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的各位股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2004 年我们的净资产增加了 83 亿美元,使 A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值增长了 10.5%。过去 40 年(即现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元增长到 55824 美元,年复合增长率 21.9%。* 然而,真正重要的是每股内在价值,而非账面价值。这方面有好消息:1964 年到 2004 年间,伯克希尔从一家苦苦挣扎的北方纺织企业(内在价值低于账面价值)蜕变为一家多元化企业,价值远超账面。因此,我们 40 年的内在价值增幅略高于 21.9% 的账面价值增幅。(关于内在价值以及指导我和我的合伙人、伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格经营公司的经济原则,请阅读第 73 页起的《股东手册》。)尽管有种种不足,伯克希尔每年计算账面价值仍有其用处,它作为一个略微保守的指标,可以用来衡量我们内在价值的长期增长幅度。不过,用它来评价单一年度相对标普 500 指数的表现(对比结果见对面页),其相关性已不如以往。我们的股票持仓(含可转换优先股)占净资产的比例已大幅下降,例如从 20 世纪 80 年代平均 114% 降到近年不足 50%。因此,股市每年的波动如今对我们净资产的影响远小于从前,这通常意味着在股市大幅上涨的年份我们的表现会落后,在下跌年份则会更优。无论年度对比结果如何,伯克希尔相对标普的长期表现始终至关重要。股东可以花极低的成本通过指数基金买入标普。除非我们未来能在每股内在价值上跑赢标普,否则查理和我等于没给大家增添任何你自己就能取得的成果。去年,伯克希尔账面价值增长 10.5%,未能赶上指数的 10.9% 回报。我们平淡的表现并非因为我们各经营公司首席执行官有任何失误:和往常一样,他们承担了超出分内的重担。我对他们的信息很简单:把企业当成你家未来一百年唯一的资产来经营。他们几乎总是这样做,在满足自身业务需求后,把多余现金送到奥马哈由我调配。去年这项工作我做得不好。我本想做几笔数十亿美元的收购,为我们已有的众多盈利渠道增添新的重要收入来源。但我失败了。此外,我也没找到多少有吸引力的证券可买。因此,伯克希尔年底持有 430 亿美元现金等价物,这个处境并不令人愉快。查理和我会在 2005 年努力把部分储备转化为更有意思的资产,不过我们无法保证成功。从某方面看,2004 年对股市来说是了不起的一年,这一事实湮没在第 2 页的数字迷宫里。如果你检视 20 世纪 60 年代结束以来的 35 年,会发现持有标普的投资者回报(含股息)平均每年 11.2%(远高于我们对未来回报的预期)。但如果你寻找回报接近 11.2% 的年份——比如在 8% 到 14% 之间——会发现 2004 年前只有一年。换句话说,去年的“正常”回报绝非正常。

Our gain in net worth during 2004 was $8.3 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 10.5%. Over the last 40 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $55,824, a rate of 21.9% compounded annually.* It’s per-share intrinsic value that counts, however, not book value. Here, the news is good: Between 1964 and 2004, Berkshire morphed from a struggling northern textile business whose intrinsic value was less than book into a diversified enterprise worth far more than book. Our 40-year gain in intrinsic value has therefore somewhat exceeded our 21.9% gain in book. (For an explanation of intrinsic value and the economic principles that guide Charlie Munger, my partner and Berkshire’s vice-chairman, and me in running Berkshire, please read our Owner’s Manual, beginning on page 73.) Despite their shortcomings, yearly calculations of book value are useful at Berkshire as a slightly understated gauge for measuring the long-term rate of increase in our intrinsic value. The calculations are less relevant, however, than they once were in rating any single year’s performance versus the S&P 500 index (a comparison we display on the facing page). Our equity holdings (including convertible preferreds) have fallen considerably as a percentage of our net worth, from an average of 114% in the 1980s, for example, to less than 50% in recent years. Therefore, yearly movements in the stock market now affect a much smaller portion of our net worth than was once the case, a fact that will normally cause us to underperform in years when stocks rise substantially and overperform in years when they fall. However the yearly comparisons work out, Berkshire’s long-term performance versus the S&P remains all-important. Our shareholders can buy the S&P through an index fund at very low cost. Unless we achieve gains in per-share intrinsic value in the future that outdo the S&P, Charlie and I will be adding nothing to what you can accomplish on your own. Last year, Berkshire’s book-value gain of 10.5% fell short of the index’s 10.9% return. Our lackluster performance was not due to any stumbles by the CEOs of our operating businesses: As always, they pulled more than their share of the load. My message to them is simple: Run your business as if it were the only asset your family will own over the next hundred years. Almost invariably they do just that and, after taking care of the needs of their business, send excess cash to Omaha for me to deploy. I didn’t do that job very well last year. My hope was to make several multi-billion dollar acquisitions that would add new and significant streams of earnings to the many we already have. But I struck out. Additionally, I found very few attractive securities to buy. Berkshire therefore ended the year with $43 billion of cash equivalents, not a happy position. Charlie and I will work to translate some of this hoard into more interesting assets during 2005, though we can’t promise success. In one respect, 2004 was a remarkable year for the stock market, a fact buried in the maze of numbers on page 2. If you examine the 35 years since the 1960s ended, you will find that an investor’s return, including dividends, from owning the S&P has averaged 11.2% annually (well above what we expect future returns to be). But if you look for years with returns anywhere close to that 11.2% – say, between 8% and 14% – you will find only one before 2004. In other words, last year’s “normal” return is anything but.

*本报告中的所有数据均适用于伯克希尔的 A 股,这是公司 1996 年之前唯一流通股的继承者。B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的 1/30。

*All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.

3
3

过去 35 年间,美国企业交出了亮眼的成绩单。投资者本应轻松赚取丰厚回报:他们只需以多样化、低成本的方式搭上美国企业的便车。一只从不碰触的指数基金就能做到。然而,许多投资者的经历从平庸到惨淡不一。原因有三:其一,成本高昂,通常源于交易过度或为投资管理付出太多;其二,组合决策依据小道消息和一时风潮,而非对企业深思熟虑、量化的评估;其三,进进出出的市场操作,入场时机不对(往往在涨势持续很久之后)与离场时机不当(往往在停滞或下跌期后)。投资者应牢记,亢奋和支出是他们的敌人。若执意择时入市,就要在他人贪婪时恐惧,在他人恐惧时才贪婪。

Over the 35 years, American business has delivered terrific results. It should therefore have been easy for investors to earn juicy returns: All they had to do was piggyback Corporate America in a diversified, low-expense way. An index fund that they never touched would have done the job. Instead many investors have had experiences ranging from mediocre to disastrous. There have been three primary causes: first, high costs, usually because investors traded excessively or spent far too much on investment management; second, portfolio decisions based on tips and fads rather than on thoughtful, quantified evaluation of businesses; and third, a start-and-stop approach to the market marked by untimely entries (after an advance has been long underway) and exits (after periods of stagnation or decline). Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.

Sector Results

Sector Results

作为管理者,查理和我希望向各位股东提供我们若身处其位时想获得的财务信息与评论。随着伯克希尔的版图不断扩张,既要讲得清楚又要保持适度简洁,难度越来越大。我们的部分业务在经济特性上与其他业务截然不同,这意味着合并报表中那些混杂的数字,几乎无法支撑起有价值的分析。因此,在接下来的篇幅里,我们将按四大业务类别,展示部分资产负债表和盈利数据,并附上对每一类的评述。我们尤其希望各位明白,鉴于我们通常回避债务,只有在哪些有限情形下我们才会动用杠杆。不过,我们不会用一堆对评估伯克希尔内在价值毫无实际意义的数据来淹没各位,那反倒会遮蔽真正重要的信息。

As managers, Charlie and I want to give our owners the financial information and commentary we would wish to receive if our roles were reversed. To do this with both clarity and reasonable brevity becomes more difficult as Berkshire’s scope widens. Some of our businesses have vastly different economic characteristics from others, which means that our consolidated statements, with their jumble of figures, make useful analysis almost impossible. On the following pages, therefore, we will present some balance sheet and earnings figures from our four major categories of businesses along with commentary about each. We particularly want you to understand the limited circumstances under which we will use debt, given that we typically shun it. We will not, however, inundate you with data that has no real value in estimating Berkshire’s intrinsic value. Doing so would tend to obfuscate the facts that count.

受监管的公用事业业务

Regulated Utility Businesses

我们持有中美能源控股公司 80.5% 的权益(按摊薄后口径计算),该公司旗下拥有多种公用事业业务。其中规模最大的有:(1)约克郡电力和北方电力,两家合计拥有 370 万电力客户,是英国第三大电力分销商;(2)中美能源公司,主要服务爱荷华州,供电客户约 69.8 万;(3)克恩河和北方天然气管道,输送量占美国天然气消费总量的 7.9%。中美能源其余 19.5% 的股权由我们的三位合伙人持有:戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔——这两位是这些业务中极为出色的管理者——以及沃尔特·斯科特,一位多年的老友,也是他把我引荐给这家公司的。由于中美能源受《公用事业控股公司法》(PUHCA)约束,伯克希尔的投票权被限制在 9.9%。投票控制权掌握在沃尔特手中。我们的投票权受限,迫使我们在会计处理上对中美能源采用简化的方式。我们并不将公司的资产、负债、收入及费用全额并入伯克希尔的报表,而只在资产负债表和损益表中各记一行。不过,PUHCA 很可能有朝一日——或许就在不久的将来——被废除,或者会计准则会发生变化。届时,伯克希尔的合并报表将纳入中美能源的全部数据,包括其使用的巨额债务(不过这些债务现在不是,将来也永远不会成为伯克希尔的义务)。年末,中美能源有 14.78 亿美元的次级债务应付给伯克希尔。这笔债务使得收购融资无需我们的合伙人增加他们原本已相当可观的投资。通过收取 11% 的利息,伯克希尔为收购所需的资金投入获得了公平的补偿,而我们的合伙人则避免了股权被稀释。由于中美能源去年没有进行大型收购,它向我们偿还了 1 亿美元的欠款。

We have an 80.5% (fully diluted) interest in MidAmerican Energy Holdings, which owns a wide variety of utility operations. The largest of these are (1) Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric, whose 3.7 million electric customers make it the third largest distributor of electricity in the U.K.; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which serves 698,000 electric customers, primarily in Iowa; and (3) Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines, which carry 7.9% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. The remaining 19.5% of MidAmerican is owned by three partners of ours: Dave Sokol and Greg Abel, the brilliant managers of these businesses, and Walter Scott, a long-time friend of mine who introduced me to the company. Because MidAmerican is subject to the Public Utility Holding Company Act (“PUHCA”), Berkshire’s voting interest is limited to 9.9%. Voting control rests with Walter. Our limited voting interest forces us to account for MidAmerican in an abbreviated manner. Instead of our fully incorporating the company’s assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses into Berkshire’s statements, we make one-line entries only in both our balance sheet and income account. It’s likely, though, that PUHCA will someday – perhaps soon – be repealed or that accounting rules will change. Berkshire’s consolidated figures would then incorporate all of MidAmerican, including the substantial debt it utilizes (though this debt is not now, nor will it ever be, an obligation of Berkshire). At yearend, $1.478 billion of MidAmerican’s junior debt was payable to Berkshire. This debt has allowed acquisitions to be financed without our partners needing to increase their already substantial investments in MidAmerican. By charging 11% interest, Berkshire is compensated fairly for putting up the funds needed for purchases, while our partners are spared dilution of their equity interests. Because MidAmerican made no large acquisitions last year, it paid down $100 million of what it owes us.

4
4

中美能源还拥有一家重要的非公用事业业务——美国房屋服务公司,这是全美第二大房地产经纪公司。与我们的公用事业运营不同,这项业务周期性很强,但我们仍然非常看好它。我们有一位出色的管理者,罗恩·佩尔蒂埃,他凭借收购和运营两方面的才能,正在打造一家经纪巨头。美国房屋服务公司在 2004 年参与了 598 亿美元的交易,比 2003 年增加了 112 亿美元。其中约 24% 的增长来自当年完成的六笔收购。通过我们的 17 家经纪公司——所有公司都保留着本地品牌——我们在 18 个州雇用了超过 1.8 万名经纪人。随着我们继续收购领先的本地化业务,美国房屋服务公司在未来十年几乎肯定会大幅增长。

去年,中美能源对一个锌回收项目进行了大额减值,该项目于 1998 年启动,2002 年投入运营。我们在加利福尼亚的地热运营产生的盐水中含有大量锌,我们原本认为可以从中盈利性地提取这种金属。好几个月里,看起来离商业化回收只差一步。但在采矿这个行当,就像石油勘探一样,前景总爱“戏弄”开发者,每次解决了一个问题,另一个问题又冒出来。到了 9 月,我们认输了。这次失败恰恰说明了一条准则的重要性——坚持做简单的事——这条准则我们通常同时用在投资和运营上。如果一个决策只有一个关键变量,而这个变量有 90% 的可能往有利方向发展,那么成功的概率显然是 90%。但如果有十个相互独立的变量都需要对结果有利才能成功,而每个变量都有 90% 的成功概率,那么最终取得胜利的可能性只有 35%。在我们的锌项目中,我们解决了大部分问题。但有一个问题始终无法攻克,而一个就够了。既然链条的强度取决于最薄弱的一环,那么去寻找——请原谅我用一个矛盾修辞——单环链条,才是明智的做法。

以下是中美能源的业绩明细。在 2004 年,“其他”类别中包括出售一笔安然应收款项所得的 7220 万美元利润,这笔应收款是我们两年前收购北方天然气公司时附带得到的。沃尔特、戴夫和我都是奥马哈本地人,我们把这笔意外之财视为战争赔款——部分补偿我们这座城市在 1986 年遭受的损失,当时肯·莱承诺把公司留在本地,结果却把北方天然气搬到了休斯敦。(详情见伯克希尔 2002 年年报。)

MidAmerican also owns a significant non-utility business, HomeServices of America, the second largest real estate broker in the country. Unlike our utility operations, this business is highly cyclical, but nevertheless one we view enthusiastically. We have an exceptional manager, Ron Peltier, who through both his acquisition and operational skills is building a brokerage powerhouse. HomeServices participated in $59.8 billion of transactions in 2004, a gain of $11.2 billion from 2003. About 24% of the increase came from six acquisitions made during the year. Through our 17 brokerage firms – all of which retain their local identities – we employ more than 18,000 brokers in 18 states. HomeServices is almost certain to grow substantially in the next decade as we continue to acquire leading localized operations. Last year MidAmerican wrote off a major investment in a zinc recovery project that was initiated in 1998 and became operational in 2002. Large quantities of zinc are present in the brine produced by our California geothermal operations, and we believed we could profitably extract the metal. For many months, it appeared that commercially-viable recoveries were imminent. But in mining, just as in oil exploration, prospects have a way of “teasing” their developers, and every time one problem was solved, another popped up. In September, we threw in the towel. Our failure here illustrates the importance of a guideline – stay with simple propositions – that we usually apply in investments as well as operations. If only one variable is key to a decision, and the variable has a 90% chance of going your way, the chance for a successful outcome is obviously 90%. But if ten independent variables need to break favorably for a successful result, and each has a 90% probability of success, the likelihood of having a winner is only 35%. In our zinc venture, we solved most of the problems. But one proved intractable, and that was one too many. Since a chain is no stronger than its weakest link, it makes sense to look for – if you’ll excuse an oxymoron – mono-linked chains. A breakdown of MidAmerican’s results follows. In 2004, the “other” category includes a $72.2 million profit from sale of an Enron receivable that was thrown in when we purchased Northern Natural two years earlier. Walter, Dave and I, as natives of Omaha, view this unanticipated gain as war reparations – partial compensation for the loss our city suffered in 1986 when Ken Lay moved Northern to Houston, after promising to leave the company here. (For details, see Berkshire’s 2002 annual report.)

以下是中美能源公司运营情况的一些关键数据:

Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operations:

英国公用事业 …
爱荷华州公用事业 …
管道运输 …
美国房屋服务公司 …
其他(净额) …
锌项目亏损 …
公司利息及税前利润 …
利息(除伯克希尔外) …
伯克希尔次级债务利息 …
所得税 …
净利润 …
归属于伯克希尔的利润* …
欠他人的债务 …
欠伯克希尔的债务 …
U.K. utilities .......................................................................................................
Iowa utility .........................................................................................................
Pipelines .............................................................................................................
HomeServices.....................................................................................................
Other (net) ..........................................................................................................
Loss from zinc project ........................................................................................
Earnings before corporate interest and taxes ......................................................
Interest, other than to Berkshire .........................................................................
Interest on Berkshire junior debt ........................................................................
Income tax ..........................................................................................................
Net earnings........................................................................................................
Earnings applicable to Berkshire* ......................................................................
Debt owed to others............................................................................................
Debt owed to Berkshire ......................................................................................
收益(百万美元)
20042003
英国公用事业$ 326$ 289
爱荷华公用事业268269
管道288261
家居服务130113
其他(净额)172190
锌项目亏损(579)(46)
公司利息和税前利润6051,076
除伯克希尔以外的利息(212)(225)
伯克希尔次级债务利息(170)(184)
所得税(53)(251)
净利润$ 170$ 416
归属于伯克希尔的收益*$ 237$ 429
欠他人的债务10,52810,296
欠伯克希尔的债务1,4781,578
Earnings (in $ millions)
20042003
U.K. utilities$ 326$ 289
Iowa utility268269
Pipelines288261
HomeServices130113
Other (net)172190
Loss from zinc project(579)(46)
Earnings before corporate interest and taxes6051,076
Interest, other than to Berkshire(212)(225)
Interest on Berkshire junior debt(170)(184)
Income tax(53)(251)
Net earnings$ 170$ 416
Earnings applicable to Berkshire*$ 237$ 429
Debt owed to others10,52810,296
Debt owed to Berkshire1,4781,578
$ 429 10,296 1,578
$ 429 10,296 1,578

*含伯克希尔赚取的利息(扣除相关所得税后)2004 年 110 美元,2003 年 118 美元。

*Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $110 in 2004 and $118 in 2003.

5
5

保险业务

自 1967 年伯克希尔收购国民赔偿公司(NICO)以来,财产意外险一直是我们核心的业务和增长的推动力。保险提供了一笔源源不断的资金,我们用这笔资金收购了证券和企业,如今这些资产为我们带来日益多元的收益流。所以在这一节,我会花点时间讲讲我们是怎么走到今天的。我们保险资金的来源是“浮存金”,也就是不属于我们、但由我们暂时持有的钱。浮存金大部分来自两方面:(1)保费先付,而我们提供的服务——保险保障——通常覆盖一年左右的期间;(2)今天发生的损失事件并不总是立刻导致赔付,因为有时要等很多年损失才被报告(石棉损失就是个例子)、谈判和了结。1967 年收购时带来的 2000 万美元浮存金,如今通过内部增长和并购,已经增加到 461 亿美元。浮存金很美妙——只要代价不高。它的成本由承保结果决定,也就是我们最终要支付的费用和损失与收到的保费相比如何。当实现承保利润时——伯克希尔进入保险业 38 年来大约有一半年份如此——浮存金比免费还好。在那些年份,我们实际上是拿了别人的钱还倒赚钱。但对大多数保险公司来说,日子要艰难得多:整体来看,财产意外险行业几乎总是处于承保亏损状态。当亏损很大时,浮存金就变得昂贵,有时甚至昂贵得致命。保险公司通常回报不佳,原因很简单:它们卖的是大宗商品似的产品。保单格式标准化,产品从众多供应商那里都能买到,其中一些是互助公司(由保单持有人“拥有”而非股东),盈利目标有限。此外,大多数投保人不在乎向谁买。数百万顾客会说“我要买吉列刀片”或“我来瓶可口可乐”,但我们等不到有人说“请给我来一份国民赔偿公司的保单”。因此,保险业的定价竞争通常极其激烈。想想航空公司的座位吧。那你可能会问,伯克希尔的保险业务是怎么克服行业糟糕的经济特性、取得一定程度的持久竞争优势的?我们用了多种方式来应对这个问题。先来看看 NICO 的策略。我们收购这家公司时——它专做商业车险和一般责任险——它看起来没有任何能克服行业长期困境的特质。它名气不大,没有信息优势(公司从没有过精算师),不是低成本运营商,还通过总代理销售,很多人认为这种方式已经过时。然而,在过去 38 年几乎所有时间里,NICO 一直是明星选手。事实上,如果没有这次收购,伯克希尔的今天可能只有一半的价值。我们凭借的是管理心态,这是大多数保险公司无法复制的。看看对面那页。你能想象任何上市公司会拥抱一种导致收入从 1986 年到 1999 年持续下滑的商业模式吗?需要强调的是,那场大滑坡不是因为接不到业务。只要愿意降价,NICO 随时可以拿到几十亿美元的保费。但我们的定价始终是为了盈利,而不是为了跟最乐观的竞争对手比谁更低。我们从不抛弃客户——倒是客户抛弃了我们。大多数美国企业都有一种“机构强制力”,拒绝接受业务量的长期下滑。哪个首席执行官愿意跟股东报告说,不仅去年业务萎缩了,而且还会继续下滑?在保险业,维持承保量的冲动还会加剧,因为定价愚蠢的保单,后果可能过一段时间才显现。如果保险公司在准备金上过于乐观,报告利润就会虚高,可能要过好几年真实损失成本才暴露出来(这种自我欺骗在 1970 年代初期几乎毁掉了 GEICO)。

Insurance Since Berkshire purchased National Indemnity (“NICO”) in 1967, property-casualty insurance has been our core business and the propellant of our growth. Insurance has provided a fountain of funds with which we’ve acquired the securities and businesses that now give us an ever-widening variety of earnings streams. So in this section, I will be spending a little time telling you how we got where we are. The source of our insurance funds is “float,” which is money that doesn’t belong to us but that we temporarily hold. Most of our float arises because (1) premiums are paid upfront though the service we provide – insurance protection – is delivered over a period that usually covers a year and; (2) loss events that occur today do not always result in our immediately paying claims, because it sometimes takes many years for losses to be reported (asbestos losses would be an example), negotiated and settled. The $20 million of float that came with our 1967 purchase has now increased – both by way of internal growth and acquisitions – to $46.1 billion. Float is wonderful – if it doesn’t come at a high price. Its cost is determined by underwriting results, meaning how the expenses and losses we will ultimately pay compare with the premiums we have received. When an underwriting profit is achieved – as has been the case at Berkshire in about half of the 38 years we have been in the insurance business – float is better than free. In such years, we are actually paid for holding other people’s money. For most insurers, however, life has been far more difficult: In aggregate, the property-casualty industry almost invariably operates at an underwriting loss. When that loss is large, float becomes expensive, sometimes devastatingly so. Insurers have generally earned poor returns for a simple reason: They sell a commodity-like product. Policy forms are standard, and the product is available from many suppliers, some of whom are mutual companies (“owned” by policyholders rather than stockholders) with profit goals that are limited. Moreover, most insureds don’t care from whom they buy. Customers by the millions say “I need some Gillette blades” or “I’ll have a Coke” but we wait in vain for “I’d like a National Indemnity policy, please.” Consequently, price competition in insurance is usually fierce. Think airline seats. So, you may ask, how do Berkshire’s insurance operations overcome the dismal economics of the industry and achieve some measure of enduring competitive advantage? We’ve attacked that problem in several ways. Let’s look first at NICO’s strategy. When we purchased the company – a specialist in commercial auto and general liability insurance – it did not appear to have any attributes that would overcome the industry’s chronic troubles. It was not well-known, had no informational advantage (the company has never had an actuary), was not a low-cost operator, and sold through general agents, a method many people thought outdated. Nevertheless, for almost all of the past 38 years, NICO has been a star performer. Indeed, had we not made this acquisition, Berkshire would be lucky to be worth half of what it is today. What we’ve had going for us is a managerial mindset that most insurers find impossible to replicate. Take a look at the facing page. Can you imagine any public company embracing a business model that would lead to the decline in revenue that we experienced from 1986 through 1999? That colossal slide, it should be emphasized, did not occur because business was unobtainable. Many billions of premium dollars were readily available to NICO had we only been willing to cut prices. But we instead consistently priced to make a profit, not to match our most optimistic competitor. We never left customers – but they left us. Most American businesses harbor an “institutional imperative” that rejects extended decreases in volume. What CEO wants to report to his shareholders that not only did business contract last year but that it will continue to drop? In insurance, the urge to keep writing business is also intensified because the consequences of foolishly-priced policies may not become apparent for some time. If an insurer is optimistic in its reserving, reported earnings will be overstated, and years may pass before true loss costs are revealed (a form of self-deception that nearly destroyed GEICO in the early 1970s).

6
6

一位严守纪律的承保人画像:国民赔偿公司

Portrait of a Disciplined Underwriter National Indemnity Company

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Written Premium (In $ millions)

Written Premium (In $ millions)

年末员工人数

No. of Employees at Year-End

承保费用与承保保费之比

Ratio of Operating Expenses to Written Premium

年度已赚保费(百万美元)年末员工人数运营费用与已赚保费之比承保利润(亏损)占保费百分比(截至2004年末计算)*
1980$79.637232.3%8.2%
198159.935336.1%(.8%)
198252.532336.7%(15.3%)
198358.230835.6%(18.7%)
198462.234235.5%(17.0%)
1985160.738028.0%1.9%
1986366.240325.9%30.7%
1987232.336829.5%27.3%
1988139.934731.7%24.8%
198998.432035.9%14.8%
199087.828937.4%7.0%
199188.328435.7%13.0%
199282.727737.9%5.2%
199386.827936.1%11.3%
199485.926334.6%4.6%
199578.025836.6%9.2%
199674.024336.5%6.8%
199765.324040.4%6.2%
199856.823140.4%9.4%
199954.522241.2%4.5%
200068.123038.4%2.9%
2001161.325428.8%(11.6%)
2002343.531324.0%16.8%
2003594.533722.2%18.1%
2004605.634022.5%5.1%
YearWritten Premium (In $ millions)No. of Employees at Year-EndRatio of Operating Expenses to Written PremiumUnderwriting Profit (Loss) as a Per- centage of Premiums (Calculated as of year end 2004)*
1980$79.637232.3%8.2%
198159.935336.1%(.8%)
198252.532336.7%(15.3%)
198358.230835.6%(18.7%)
198462.234235.5%(17.0%)
1985160.738028.0%1.9%
1986366.240325.9%30.7%
1987232.336829.5%27.3%
1988139.934731.7%24.8%
198998.432035.9%14.8%
199087.828937.4%7.0%
199188.328435.7%13.0%
199282.727737.9%5.2%
199386.827936.1%11.3%
199485.926334.6%4.6%
199578.025836.6%9.2%
199674.024336.5%6.8%
199765.324040.4%6.2%
199856.823140.4%9.4%
199954.522241.2%4.5%
200068.123038.4%2.9%
2001161.325428.8%(11.6%)
2002343.531324.0%16.8%
2003594.533722.2%18.1%
2004605.634022.5%5.1%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

承保利润(亏损)占保费收入的百分比(按 2004 年年末计算)* 8.2% (0.8%) (15.3%) (18.7%) (17.0%) 1.9% 30.7% 27.3% 24.8% 14.8% 7.0% 13.0% 5.2% 11.3% 4.6% 9.2% 6.8% 6.2% 9.4% 4.5% 2.9% (11.6%) 16.8% 18.1% 5.1%

Underwriting Profit (Loss) as a Percentage of Premiums (Calculated as of year end 2004)* 8.2% (.8%) (15.3%) (18.7%) (17.0%) 1.9% 30.7% 27.3% 24.8% 14.8% 7.0% 13.0% 5.2% 11.3% 4.6% 9.2% 6.8% 6.2% 9.4% 4.5% 2.9% (11.6%) 16.8% 18.1% 5.1%

评估某一年度真实盈利水平颇为耗时。首先,许多理赔案件在年末之后才陆续上报,我们需预估这些案件的数量及赔付金额(保险术语中称此类理赔为 IBNR,即已发生未报告)。其次,理赔案件的解决往往需要数年乃至数十年,期间变数颇多。因此,本栏所展示的结果仅代表我们于 2004 年末对往年业绩的最佳预测。1999 年及以前的年度利润率可能已接近实际,因为这些年份已“成熟”,即剩余未决理赔极少。年份越近,估计成分越大。特别是 2003 年及 2004 年的业绩数字,未来极有可能发生重大调整。

*It takes a long time to learn the true profitability of any given year. First, many claims are received after the end of the year, and we must estimate how many of these there will be and what they will cost. (In insurance jargon, these claims are termed IBNR – incurred but not reported.) Second, claims often take years, or even decades, to settle, which means there can be many surprises along the way. For these reasons, the results in this column simply represent our best estimate at the end of 2004 as to how we have done in prior years. Profit margins for the years through 1999 are probably close to correct because these years are “mature,” in the sense that they have few claims still outstanding. The more recent the year, the more guesswork is involved. In particular, the results shown for 2003 and 2004 are apt to change significantly.

7
7

最后,还有一个恐惧因素在起作用:业务萎缩通常意味着裁员。为了保住饭碗,员工会为定价过低找理由,告诉自己必须容忍低价业务,才能维持组织完整、让分销体系满意。他们还会争辩说,如果不这样做,公司就赶不上他们总认为近在眼前的复苏。为了对抗员工自保的天性,我们一直向国家保险公司(NICO)的员工承诺:即使业务量下滑再严重,也不会有人因此被解雇。(这不是唐纳德·特朗普那种风格的地方。)国家保险公司不是劳动密集型企业,正如表格所示,它承受得起多余的开销。但它承受不起的是低价业务,以及随之而来的承保纪律崩坏。一家保险公司如果今年不把承保盈利当回事,明年多半也不会当回事。自然,实行不解雇政策的公司在景气时期必须格外小心,避免人员冗余。三十年前,时任大都会首席执行官汤姆·墨菲用一个虚构故事向我点明了这一点:一个员工向老板申请招一名助理。他以为年薪多出 2 万美元无关紧要。但老板告诉他,这个提议应当按 300 万美元的决策来评估——考虑到这名员工在一生中连加薪、福利和其他开支(人多了,手纸也多)算下来,至少也会花掉公司这么多钱。而且除非公司陷入极其困难的境地,否则这名新招的员工即便对业务贡献微薄,也不太可能被解雇。要做到国家保险公司这样,需要深植于公司文化的真正勇气。任何人看这张表,都可以快速扫过 1986 年到 1999 年的年份。但日复一日地面对业务量萎缩——而竞争对手却在吹嘘增长、赢得华尔街的掌声——这种滋味少有管理者能忍受。然而,国家保险公司自 1940 年成立以来有过四位首席执行官,没有一位弯过腰。(需要指出的是,四位里只有一位大学毕业。我们的经验告诉我们,卓越的商业才能很大程度上是天生的。)国家保险公司现任的管理明星——应该说是超级明星——是唐·沃斯特(没错,他就是“那位毕业生”),他从 1989 年起掌管公司。他的击球率跟巴里·邦兹不相上下,因为和邦兹一样,唐宁可保送也不挥棒打坏球。唐现在为国家保险公司积累了 9.5 亿美元的浮存金,随着时间推移,这些浮存金几乎肯定会被证明是负成本性质的。由于保险费率正在下跌,唐的业务量很快就会明显萎缩,而随着这一天的到来,查理和我会更加响亮地为他鼓掌。

Finally, there is a fear factor at work, in that a shrinking business usually leads to layoffs. To avoid pink slips, employees will rationalize inadequate pricing, telling themselves that poorly-priced business must be tolerated in order to keep the organization intact and the distribution system happy. If this course isn’t followed, these employees will argue, the company will not participate in the recovery that they invariably feel is just around the corner. To combat employees’ natural tendency to save their own skins, we have always promised NICO’s workforce that no one will be fired because of declining volume, however severe the contraction. (This is not Donald Trump’s sort of place.) NICO is not labor-intensive, and, as the table suggests, can live with excess overhead. It can’t live, however, with underpriced business and the breakdown in underwriting discipline that accompanies it. An insurance organization that doesn’t care deeply about underwriting at a profit this year is unlikely to care next year either. Naturally, a business that follows a no-layoff policy must be especially careful to avoid overstaffing when times are good. Thirty years ago Tom Murphy, then CEO of Cap Cities, drove this point home to me with a hypothetical tale about an employee who asked his boss for permission to hire an assistant. The employee assumed that adding $20,000 to the annual payroll would be inconsequential. But his boss told him the proposal should be evaluated as a $3 million decision, given that an additional person would probably cost at least that amount over his lifetime, factoring in raises, benefits and other expenses (more people, more toilet paper). And unless the company fell on very hard times, the employee added would be unlikely to be dismissed, however marginal his contribution to the business. It takes real fortitude – embedded deep within a company’s culture – to operate as NICO does. Anyone examining the table can scan the years from 1986 to 1999 quickly. But living day after day with dwindling volume – while competitors are boasting of growth and reaping Wall Street’s applause – is an experience few managers can tolerate. NICO, however, has had four CEOs since its formation in 1940 and none have bent. (It should be noted that only one of the four graduated from college. Our experience tells us that extraordinary business ability is largely innate.) The current managerial star – make that superstar – at NICO is Don Wurster (yes, he’s “the graduate”), who has been running things since 1989. His slugging percentage is right up there with Barry Bonds’ because, like Barry, Don will accept a walk rather than swing at a bad pitch. Don has now amassed $950 million of float at NICO that over time is almost certain to be proved the negative-cost kind. Because insurance prices are falling, Don’s volume will soon decline very significantly and, as it does, Charlie and I will applaud him ever more loudly.

****

****

在商品型业务中,另一种兴盛之道是成为低成本运营商。在广泛开展业务的汽车保险公司中,GEICO 牢牢占据这一宝贵地位。正如我们所见,对于国民赔偿公司(NICO)而言,潮起潮落的业务模式有其合理性。但拥有低成本优势的公司必须奉行永不懈怠、全力加速的策略。这正是我们在 GEICO 所做的。一个世纪前,汽车刚刚问世时,财产险行业是卡特尔式的运作方式。各大公司,多数总部设在东北部,确立了“公会”费率,就此定局。没有人降价来吸引业务。相反,保险公司争抢实力雄厚、声誉良好的代理人,这一重心导致代理人佣金高涨,消费者支付的价格也随之攀升。1922 年,来自伊利诺伊州梅尔纳的农民乔治·梅彻尔创立了州农保险公司,意在利用业内高成本巨头撑起的定价保护伞。州农采用“专属”代理团队,这一体系使其获取成本低于公会保险商(后者的“独立”代理人成功地在各公司间左右逢源)。凭借低成本结构,州农最终占据了个人险(汽车和房主)业务约 25% 的份额,远远甩开昔日强大的竞争对手。1931 年成立的全州保险采用了类似的销售体系,很快成为个人险领域紧随州农的第二名。资本主义发挥了它的魔力,这些低成本运营商看起来势不可挡。

Another way to prosper in a commodity-type business is to be the low-cost operator. Among auto insurers operating on a broad scale, GEICO holds that cherished title. For NICO, as we have seen, an ebband-flow business model makes sense. But a company holding a low-cost advantage must pursue an unrelenting foot-to-the-floor strategy. And that’s just what we do at GEICO. A century ago, when autos first appeared, the property-casualty industry operated as a cartel. The major companies, most of which were based in the Northeast, established “bureau” rates and that was it. No one cut prices to attract business. Instead, insurers competed for strong, well-regarded agents, a focus that produced high commissions for agents and high prices for consumers. In 1922, State Farm was formed by George Mecherle, a farmer from Merna, Illinois, who aimed to take advantage of the pricing umbrella maintained by the high-cost giants of the industry. State Farm employed a “captive” agency force, a system keeping its acquisition costs lower than those incurred by the bureau insurers (whose “independent” agents successfully played off one company against another). With its low-cost structure, State Farm eventually captured about 25% of the personal lines (auto and homeowners) business, far outdistancing its once-mighty competitors. Allstate, formed in 1931, put a similar distribution system into place and soon became the runner-up in personal lines to State Farm. Capitalism had worked its magic, and these low-cost operations looked unstoppable.

8
8

可一位名叫利奥·古德温的人想出了一个更高效的汽车保险公司点子,1936 年他仅凭 20 万美元的微薄资金,创办了 GEICO。古德温的构想是彻底取消代理人,直接与车主打交道。他自问,既然汽车保险是强制购买且花费不菲,分销环节里何必还要那些不必要又昂贵的中间环节呢?他认为,商业保险的买家或许确实需要专业建议,但大多数消费者对自己需要什么样的车险心里有数。这是一个极具洞察力的想法。最初,GEICO 把低价信息邮寄给有限的政府雇员群体。后来,它拓宽了视野,将营销重点转向电话,处理来自广播和平面广告的咨询。如今,互联网势头正猛。从 1936 年到 1975 年,GEICO 从零起步,发展到 4% 的市场份额,成为全美第四大汽车保险公司。在此期间的大部分时间里,公司管理极为出色,既实现了可观的业务增长,又赚取了高额利润。它看起来势不可挡。但 1970 年我的朋友兼偶像洛里默·戴维森从首席执行官职位退休后,他的继任者很快犯下一个大错:为损失计提不足。这导致成本信息失准,进而造成定价偏低。到 1976 年,GEICO 濒临倒闭。随后杰克·伯恩出任首席执行官,几乎凭一己之力拯救了公司,他采取了大幅提价等英勇举措。虽然 GEICO 要想生存必须如此,但投保人纷纷逃离,到 1980 年其市场份额跌至 1.8%。此后,公司又进行了一些不明智的多元化扩张。这种偏离其卓越核心业务的转向抑制了 GEICO 的增长,到 1993 年其市场份额仅微增至 1.9%。接着托尼·奈斯利接手。成效天差地别:2005 年 GEICO 很可能拿下 6% 的市场份额。更妙的是,托尼实现了增长与盈利的并驾齐驱。事实上,GEICO 为其各方参与者都带来了巨大好处:2004 年,其客户相比在其他地方购买保险少花了约 10 亿美元;其员工获得 1.91 亿美元的利润分享奖金,平均占工资的 24.3%;而其所有者——也就是我们——享受了优异的财务回报。还有更多好消息。1976 年杰克·伯恩拯救公司时,新泽西州拒绝批准他所需的费率,使其无法盈利经营。于是他迅速且合理地退出了该州。此后,GEICO 一直避开新泽西州和马萨诸塞州,因为它意识到这两个司法管辖区注定让保险公司举步维艰。然而 2003 年,新泽西州重新审视其长期存在的汽车保险问题,并通过立法来遏制欺诈,为保险公司提供公平的竞争环境。即便如此,人们可能预料该州的官僚体制会让改革进展缓慢而困难。但实际情况恰恰相反。新泽西州保险专员霍莉·巴克的决心是让法律意图变成现实,她无论从事哪一行都会成功。在她的员工配合下,GEICO 解决了重新进入该州的各项细节问题,并于去年 8 月获得牌照。自那以来,新泽西州司机的反响远超我的预期。我们现在服务 14 万名投保人——约占新泽西市场份额的 4%——并为他们节省了大笔开支(就像我们为各地的司机所做的那样)。该州内的口口相传让咨询电话源源不断。而且,一旦我们接到新泽西潜在客户的咨询,我们的成交率——即咨询转化为保单的比例——在该州远高于全国平均水平。当然,我们不敢说能为所有人省钱。有些公司使用与我们不同的评级体系,可能为某些类别的司机提供比我们更低的费率。但我们相信,在为所有公众群体服务的全国性公司中,GEICO 提供最低价格的情况比其他任何一家都多。此外,在包括新泽西在内的大多数州,伯克希尔股东可享受 8% 的折扣。所以,花十五分钟去 GEICO.com 看看,或拨打 800-847-7536,试试便知。

But a man named Leo Goodwin had an idea for an even more efficient auto insurer and, with a skimpy $200,000, started GEICO in 1936. Goodwin’s plan was to eliminate the agent entirely and to deal instead directly with the auto owner. Why, he asked himself, should there be any unnecessary and expensive links in the distribution mechanism when the product, auto insurance, was both mandatory and costly. Purchasers of business insurance, he reasoned, might well require professional advice, but most consumers knew what they needed in an auto policy. That was a powerful insight. Originally, GEICO mailed its low-cost message to a limited audience of government employees. Later, it widened its horizons and shifted its marketing emphasis to the phone, working inquiries that came from broadcast and print advertising. And today the Internet is coming on strong. Between 1936 and 1975, GEICO grew from a standing start to a 4% market share, becoming the country’s fourth largest auto insurer. During most of this period, the company was superbly managed, achieving both excellent volume gains and high profits. It looked unstoppable. But after my friend and hero Lorimer Davidson retired as CEO in 1970, his successors soon made a huge mistake by underreserving for losses. This produced faulty cost information, which in turn produced inadequate pricing. By 1976, GEICO was on the brink of failure. Jack Byrne then joined GEICO as CEO and, almost single-handedly, saved the company by heroic efforts that included major price increases. Though GEICO’s survival required these, policyholders fled the company, and by 1980 its market share had fallen to 1.8%. Subsequently, the company embarked on some unwise diversification moves. This shift of emphasis away from its extraordinary core business stunted GEICO’s growth, and by 1993 its market share had grown only fractionally, to 1.9%. Then Tony Nicely took charge. And what a difference that’s made: In 2005 GEICO will probably secure a 6% market share. Better yet, Tony has matched growth with profitability. Indeed, GEICO delivers all of its constituents major benefits: In 2004 its customers saved $1 billion or so compared to what they would otherwise have paid for coverage, its associates earned a $191 million profit-sharing bonus that averaged 24.3% of salary, and its owner – that’s us – enjoyed excellent financial returns. There’s more good news. When Jack Byrne was rescuing the company in 1976, New Jersey refused to grant him the rates he needed to operate profitably. He therefore promptly – and properly – withdrew from the state. Subsequently, GEICO avoided both New Jersey and Massachusetts, recognizing them as two jurisdictions in which insurers were destined to struggle. In 2003, however, New Jersey took a new look at its chronic auto-insurance problems and enacted legislation that would curb fraud and allow insurers a fair playing field. Even so, one might have expected the state’s bureaucracy to make change slow and difficult. But just the opposite occurred. Holly Bakke, the New Jersey insurance commissioner, who would be a success in any line of work, was determined to turn the law’s intent into reality. With her staff’s cooperation, GEICO ironed out the details for re-entering the state and was licensed last August. Since then, we’ve received a response from New Jersey drivers that is multiples of my expectations. We are now serving 140,000 policyholders – about 4% of the New Jersey market – and saving them substantial sums (as we do drivers everywhere). Word-of-mouth recommendations within the state are causing inquiries to pour in. And once we hear from a New Jersey prospect, our closure rate – the percentage of policies issued to inquiries received – is far higher in the state than it is nationally. We make no claim, of course, that we can save everyone money. Some companies, using rating systems that are different from ours, will offer certain classes of drivers a lower rate than we do. But we believe GEICO offers the lowest price more often than any other national company that serves all segments of the public. In addition, in most states, including New Jersey, Berkshire shareholders receive an 8% discount. So gamble fifteen minutes of your time and go to GEICO.com – or call 800-847-7536 – to see

9
9

无论您是否能省下大笔资金(当然,这笔钱或许您会想用来购买伯克希尔的其他产品)。

whether you can save big money (which you might want to use, of course, to buy other Berkshire products).

****

****

再保险——也就是卖给那些希望转移部分承保风险的保险公司的保险——不应当是一种大宗商品。归根结底,任何一份保险单都不过是一个承诺,而众所周知,承诺的质量千差万别。然而,在初级保险层面,承诺由谁作出往往并不那么重要。比如说,在个人险种中,各州会向有偿付能力的公司征收费用,用来赔付那些破产公司的保单持有人。在商业保险领域,同样的安排也适用于工伤保险保单。这类“受保护”的保单大约占财产险行业业务量的 60%。经营审慎的保险公司对不得不补贴别处那些经营不善或管理鲁莽的公司感到恼火,但现实就是这样。初级层面的其他商业保险形式,其承诺对投保人来说风险更大。比如,当 Reliance Insurance 和 Home Insurance 相继倒闭时,它们的承诺被证明一文不值。结果,许多持有它们商业保单的人(工伤保险除外)蒙受了惨重损失。然而,初级保单中的偿付风险,与再保险保单中潜藏的风险相比,简直是小巫见大巫。当一家再保险公司破产时,与之打过交道的初级保险公司几乎总会遭受沉重打击。这一风险绝不容小觑:GEICO 在 20 世纪 80 年代初因选择再保险公司时粗心大意,就蒙受了数千万美元的损失。如果未来一二十年真发生一场超级巨灾——这绝非不可能——一些再保险公司将撑不过去。迄今为止最大的一笔保险损失是世贸中心灾难,估计让保险业赔了 350 亿美元。1992 年的安德鲁飓风让保险公司赔了大约 155 亿美元(按今天的美元计算,那笔损失还要高得多)。这两起事件都震动了保险和再保险行业。但一场 1000 亿美元的事件,甚至更大的灾难,仍然有可能发生,只要一场特别强烈的地震或飓风偏偏砸在错误的地方。2004 年,四场强飓风袭击了佛罗里达州,造成约 250 亿美元的保险损失。其中两场——查理和伊万——如果它们在离实际登陆点不远处进入美国,造成的破坏至少会是实际的三倍。许多保险公司把 1000 亿美元的行业损失视为“不可想象”,甚至不愿为此做规划。但在伯克希尔,我们准备得十分充分。我们承担的损失份额大概在 3% 到 5% 之间,而我们的投资和其他业务带来的收益足以轻松覆盖这笔成本。等到“灾难之后”到来时,伯克希尔的支票一定能兑现。尽管飓风让我们损失了 12.5 亿美元,我们的再保险业务去年表现得还是不错。在通用再保险,乔·布兰登重新恢复了那种长期备受推崇的承保纪律文化,这种文化曾一度迷失了方向。不过,他在 2004 年从当前业务上取得的优异成果,被他接手前那几年累积的不利发展抵消了。在 NICO 的再保险业务中,阿吉特·贾恩继续成功承保那些其他再保险公司不愿或无力承接的巨额风险。阿吉特对伯克希尔的价值极为巨大。

Reinsurance – insurance sold to other insurers who wish to lay off part of the risks they have assumed – should not be a commodity product. At bottom, any insurance policy is simply a promise, and as everyone knows, promises vary enormously in their quality. At the primary insurance level, nevertheless, just who makes the promise is often of minor importance. In personal-lines insurance, for example, states levy assessments on solvent companies to pay the policyholders of companies that go broke. In the business-insurance field, the same arrangement applies to workers’ compensation policies. “Protected” policies of these types account for about 60% of the property-casualty industry’s volume. Prudently-run insurers are irritated by the need to subsidize poor or reckless management elsewhere, but that’s the way it is. Other forms of business insurance at the primary level involve promises that carry greater risks for the insured. When Reliance Insurance and Home Insurance were run into the ground, for example, their promises proved to be worthless. Consequently, many holders of their business policies (other than those covering workers’ compensation) suffered painful losses. The solvency risk in primary policies, however, pales in comparison to that lurking in reinsurance policies. When a reinsurer goes broke, staggering losses almost always strike the primary companies it has dealt with. This risk is far from minor: GEICO has suffered tens of millions in losses from its careless selection of reinsurers in the early 1980s. Were a true mega-catastrophe to occur in the next decade or two – and that’s a real possibility – some reinsurers would not survive. The largest insured loss to date is the World Trade Center disaster, which cost the insurance industry an estimated $35 billion. Hurricane Andrew cost insurers about $15.5 billion in 1992 (though that loss would be far higher in today’s dollars). Both events rocked the insurance and reinsurance world. But a $100 billion event, or even a larger catastrophe, remains a possibility if either a particularly severe earthquake or hurricane hits just the wrong place. Four significant hurricanes struck Florida during 2004, causing an aggregate of $25 billion or so in insured losses. Two of these – Charley and Ivan – could have done at least three times the damage they did had they entered the U.S. not far from their actual landing points. Many insurers regard a $100 billion industry loss as “unthinkable” and won’t even plan for it. But at Berkshire, we are fully prepared. Our share of the loss would probably be 3% to 5%, and earnings from our investments and other businesses would comfortably exceed that cost. When “the day after” arrives, Berkshire’s checks will clear. Though the hurricanes hit us with a $1.25 billion loss, our reinsurance operations did well last year. At General Re, Joe Brandon has restored a long-admired culture of underwriting discipline that, for a time, had lost its way. The excellent results he realized in 2004 on current business, however, were offset by adverse developments from the years before he took the helm. At NICO’s reinsurance operation, Ajit Jain continues to successfully underwrite huge risks that no other reinsurer is willing or able to accept. Ajit’s value to Berkshire is enormous.

****

****

我们的保险经理人充分发挥了我在这一部分提到的竞争优势,去年再次交出了顶级的承保成绩单。因此,我们的浮存金表现优于预期。

Our insurance managers, maximizing the competitive strengths I’ve mentioned in this section, again delivered first-class underwriting results last year. As a consequence, our float was better than

无成本。以下是成绩单:

costless. Here’s the scorecard:

10
10
保险业务
通用再保险 …
伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险 …
GEICO …
其他主要保险业务 *…
合计 …
Insurance Operations
General Re .......................
B-H Reinsurance ..............
GEICO .............................
Other Primary*.................
Total .................................

Underwriting Profit 2004 $ 3 417 970 161 $1,551

Underwriting Profit 2004 $ 3 417 970 161 $1,551

10承保利润(百万美元)年末浮动
保险运营200420042003
通用再保险公司$ 3$23,120$23,654
B-H再保险41715,27813,948
GEICO9705,9605,287
其他主要业务*1611,7361,331
总计$1,551$46,094$44,220
10Underwriting Profit(in $ millions)Yearend Float
Insurance Operations200420042003
General Re$ 3$23,120$23,654
B-H Reinsurance41715,27813,948
GEICO9705,9605,287
Other Primary*1611,7361,331
Total$1,551$46,094$44,220

*除国民赔偿公司外,还包括由罗德·埃尔德雷德、约翰·凯泽、汤姆·纳尼和唐·托尔管理的多家其他卓越保险业务。2004 年,尽管一些投保客户选择终止(即解除)特定再保险合同,伯克希尔的浮存金仍增长了 19 亿美元。我们仅在认为经济上对我们有利时(在适当考虑未来资金返还所能获得的收益后)才同意此类解除。总而言之,去年我们收取超过 15 亿美元费用,平均持有约 452 亿美元浮存金。2005 年定价将不如以往具有吸引力。然而,除非发生特大灾害,我们今年仍有不错机会再次实现无成本浮存金。

*Includes, in addition to National Indemnity, a variety of other exceptional insurance businesses, run by Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney and Don Towle. Berkshire’s float increased $1.9 billion in 2004, even though a few insureds opted to commute (that is, unwind) certain reinsurance contracts. We agree to such commutations only when we believe the economics are favorable to us (after giving due weight to what we might earn in the future on the money we are returning). To summarize, last year we were paid more than $1.5 billion to hold an average of about $45.2 billion. In 2005 pricing will be less attractive than it has been. Nevertheless, absent a mega-catastrophe, we have a decent chance of achieving no-cost float again this year.

金融及金融产品

Finance and Finance Products

去年在这一节里,我们讨论了一堆五花八门的业务。今年这份报告,我们就略过几个现已不太重要的:伯卡迪亚已近尾声,只剩些收尾工作;价值资本引入了其他投资者,我们原先预期需要将其财务并进我们的报表,如今这预期也就不作数了;而由我负责的交易业务仍在持续缩小。

Last year in this section we discussed a potpourri of activities. In this report, we’ll skip over several that are now of lesser importance: Berkadia is down to tag ends; Value Capital has added other investors, negating our expectation that we would need to consolidate its financials into ours; and the trading operation that I run continues to shrink. •

伯克希尔的两项租赁业务去年均有所回升。CORT(办公家具)的盈利仍不理想,但趋势向上。XTRA 出售了其集装箱和多式联运业务,以集中精力于拖车租赁——这一直是其强项。在比尔·弗兰茨这位新首席执行官的带领下,管理费用已降低,资产利用率上升,目前正实现可观利润。

Both of Berkshire’s leasing operations rebounded last year. At CORT (office furniture), earnings remain inadequate, but are trending upward. XTRA disposed of its container and intermodal businesses in order to concentrate on trailer leasing, long its strong suit. Overhead has been reduced, asset utilization is up and decent profits are now being achieved under Bill Franz, the company’s new CEO.

通用再保险证券的清理工作仍在继续。三年前我们决定退出这项衍生品业务,但退出说起来容易做起来难。尽管衍生品工具号称流动性极强——尽管我们在清理过程中碰上了温和的市场环境——截至年底仍有 2890 份合约未平仓,较峰值时的 23218 份已大幅减少。衍生品交易就像地狱,进去容易出来难。(其他相似之处也不言而喻。)通用再保险的衍生品合约一直要求按市值计价,我相信公司管理层也在尽心尽力做出切合实际的“报价”。然而,在交易结算有时要拖上数十年、且往往牵扯多个变量的世界里,衍生品的市场价格可能相当模糊。在此期间,这些报价还会影响每年发放的管理层和交易奖金。虚增利润被记入账本也就不足为奇了。投资者应当明白,在所有类型的金融机构中,快速增长有时会掩盖重大的潜在问题(偶尔还有欺诈)。检验衍生品业务盈利能力真正的标准,是看它在长期无增长模式下运营能交出怎样的成绩单。只有等潮水退了,你才会知道谁在裸泳。

The wind-down of Gen Re Securities continues. We decided to exit this derivative operation three years ago, but getting out is easier said than done. Though derivative instruments are purported to be highly liquid – and though we have had the benefit of a benign market while liquidating ours – we still had 2,890 contracts outstanding at yearend, down from 23,218 at the peak. Like Hell, derivative trading is easy to enter but difficult to leave. (Other similarities come to mind as well.) Gen Re’s derivative contracts have always been required to be marked to market, and I believe the company’s management conscientiously tried to make realistic “marks.” The market prices of derivatives, however, can be very fuzzy in a world in which settlement of a transaction is sometimes decades away and often involves multiple variables as well. In the interim the marks influence the managerial and trading bonuses that are paid annually. It’s small wonder that phantom profits are often recorded. Investors should understand that in all types of financial institutions, rapid growth sometimes masks major underlying problems (and occasionally fraud). The real test of the earning power of a derivatives operation is what it achieves after operating for an extended period in a no-growth mode. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out.

40 年过去,伯克希尔终于产生了一点协同效应:克莱顿住宅公司干得不错,部分原因就在于它与伯克希尔的合作。预制房屋行业

After 40 years, we’ve finally generated a little synergy at Berkshire: Clayton Homes is doing well and that’s in part due to its association with Berkshire. The manufactured home industry

11
11

这个行业仍在“美国企业重症监护室”里躺着,去年新屋销量不到 13.5 万套,与 2003 年基本持平。这两年成交量是 1962 年以来最低的,也只有 1995 至 1999 年间年均销量的约 40%。那个时代充斥着不负责任的融资和天真的出资人,对行业来说简直是傻瓜的天堂。由于一家又一家大型贷款机构逃离了这个领域,融资问题持续困扰着制造商、零售商和活动房屋的买家。在这方面,伯克希尔的支持对克莱顿来说价值非凡。我们随时准备为一切合理的项目提供资金,而去年克莱顿的管理层找到了大量符合条件的项目。正如我们在 2003 年年报中解释的那样,我们相信用借来的钱去支持能产生利润的、带息应收款是可行的。去年年初,我们借了 20 亿美元转贷给克莱顿(加价一个百分点),到 2005 年 1 月总额已达 73.5 亿美元。其中大部分新增资金是我们于 2005 年 1 月 4 日借入的,用于为克莱顿在 2004 年 12 月 30 日从一家退出该业务的银行手中购买的一个成熟资产组合提供融资。我们现在还有两笔资产组合收购在推进中,总额约 16 亿美元,但再拿到其他大额交易的可能性相当低。因此,克莱顿的应收款(新发放贷款大致会抵消还款)在一段时间内可能会徘徊在 90 亿美元左右,并应能带来稳定的盈利。这种模式将与过去大不相同——过去克莱顿和行业里所有主要玩家一样,把应收款“证券化”,导致盈利被提前确认。最近两年,证券化市场已经枯竭。如今可获得的有限资金不仅成本更高,而且条款苛刻。如果克莱顿在这段时期保持独立,它就会在融资困境中挣扎,盈利平平。4 月,克莱顿完成了对奥克伍德住宅公司的收购,如今已是行业内最大的活动房屋生产商和零售商。我们乐于把更多资产交到该公司首席执行官凯文·克莱顿手中。他是典型的伯克希尔式经理人。如今克莱顿拥有 11,837 名员工,比我们收购时的 7,136 人有所增加,查理和我对伯克希尔能在其中助力增长感到高兴。为简明起见,我们把克莱顿的全部盈利都计入这一板块,尽管其中相当一部分来自消费金融以外的领域。

continues to reside in the intensive care unit of Corporate America, having sold less than 135,000 new homes last year, about the same as in 2003. Volume in these years was the lowest since 1962, and it was also only about 40% of annual sales during the years 1995-99. That era, characterized by irresponsible financing and naïve funders, was a fool’s paradise for the industry. Because one major lender after another has fled the field, financing continues to bedevil manufacturers, retailers and purchasers of manufactured homes. Here Berkshire’s support has proven valuable to Clayton. We stand ready to fund whatever makes sense, and last year Clayton’s management found much that qualified. As we explained in our 2003 report, we believe in using borrowed money to support profitable, interest-bearing receivables. At the beginning of last year, we had borrowed $2 billion to relend to Clayton (at a one percentage-point markup) and by January 2005 the total was $7.35 billion. Most of the dollars added were borrowed by us on January 4, 2005, to finance a seasoned portfolio that Clayton purchased on December 30, 2004 from a bank exiting the business. We now have two additional portfolio purchases in the works, totaling about $1.6 billion, but it’s quite unlikely that we will secure others of any significance. Therefore, Clayton’s receivables (in which originations will roughly offset payoffs) will probably hover around $9 billion for some time and should deliver steady earnings. This pattern will be far different from that of the past, in which Clayton, like all major players in its industry, “securitized” its receivables, causing earnings to be front-ended. In the last two years, the securitization market has dried up. The limited funds available today come only at higher cost and with harsh terms. Had Clayton remained independent in this period, it would have had mediocre earnings as it struggled with financing. In April, Clayton completed the acquisition of Oakwood Homes and is now the industry’s largest producer and retailer of manufactured homes. We love putting more assets in the hands of Kevin Clayton, the company’s CEO. He is a prototype Berkshire manager. Today, Clayton has 11,837 employees, up from 7,136 when we purchased it, and Charlie and I are pleased that Berkshire has been useful in facilitating this growth. For simplicity’s sake, we include all of Clayton’s earnings in this sector, though a sizable portion of these are derived from areas other than consumer finance.

交易——普通收入……
通用再保险证券……
寿险与年金业务……
价值资本……
Berkadia……
租赁业务……
制造住宅金融(克莱顿)……
其他……
资本利得前收入……
交易——资本利得……
总计………
*
**
Trading – ordinary income ............................
Gen Re Securities ...........................................
Life and annuity operation..............................
Value Capital..................................................
Berkadia .........................................................
Leasing operations..........................................
Manufactured housing finance (Clayton) .......
Other...............................................................
Income before capital gains............................
Trading – capital gains ...................................
Total ...............................................................
*
**

(in $ millions)

(in $ millions)

带息负债

Interest-Bearing Liabilities

(以百万美元计) 税前收益附息负债
2004 20032004 2003
交易——普通收入$ 264 $ 355$5,751 $7,826
Gen Re证券(44) (99)5,437* 8,041*
寿险及年金业务(57) 852,467 2,331
价值资本30 31不适用 不适用
Berkadia1 101— 525
租赁业务92 34391 482
制造住房金融(Clayton)220 37**3,636 2,032
其他78 75不适用 不适用
资本利得前收入584 619
交易——资本利得1,750 1,215
总计$2,334 $1,834
(in $ millions) Pre-Tax EarningsInterest-Bearing Liabilities
2004 20032004 2003
Trading – ordinary income$ 264 $ 355$5,751 $7,826
Gen Re Securities(44) (99)5,437* 8,041*
Life and annuity operation(57) 852,467 2,331
Value Capital30 31N/A N/A
Berkadia1 101— 525
Leasing operations92 34391 482
Manufactured housing finance (Clayton)220 37**3,636 2,032
Other78 75N/A N/A
Income before capital gains584 619
Trading – capital gains1,750 1,215
Total$2,334 $1,834

包含自收购日(2003 年 8 月 7 日)起的所有负债

Includes all liabilities From date of acquisition, August 7, 2003

12
12
制造、服务和零售业务
我们在这类业务中的活动涵盖了方方面面。但让我们来看一下整合整个集团的简要资产负债表和利润表。
资产负债表 2004 年 12 月 31 日(单位:百万美元)
资产
现金及等价物 …
应收账款及票据 …
存货 …
其他流动资产 …
流动资产合计 …
商誉及其他无形资产 …
固定资产 …
其他资产 …
Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations
Our activities in this category cover the waterfront. But let’s look at a summary balance sheet and
earnings statement consolidating the entire group.
Balance Sheet 12/31/04 (in $ millions)
Assets
Cash and equivalents .................................
Accounts and notes receivable ..................
Inventory ...................................................
Other current assets ...................................
Total current assets ....................................
Goodwill and other intangibles..................
Fixed assets................................................
Other assets................................................

$

$

899 3,074 3,842 254 8,069
8,362 6,161 1,044 $23,636
899 3,074 3,842 254 8,069
8,362 6,161 1,044 $23,636
负债与权益
应付票据 …
其他流动负债 …
流动负债合计 …
Liabilities and Equity
Notes payable ...............................
Other current liabilities.................
Total current liabilities .................
递延所得税…
定期债务及其他负债…
股东权益…
Deferred taxes...............................
Term debt and other liabilities......
Equity ...........................................
$ 1,143 4,685 5,828
248 1,965 15,595 $23,636
$ 1,143 4,685 5,828
248 1,965 15,595 $23,636
收益表(单位:百万美元)
营收 …
营业费用(含 2004 年折旧 676 美元及 2003 年折旧 605 美元) …
利息费用(净额) …
税前收益 …
所得税 …
净收益 …
Earnings Statement (in $ millions)
Revenues .................................................................................................................
Operating expenses (including depreciation of $676 in 2004
and $605 in 2003).............................................................................................
Interest expense (net)...............................................................................................
Pre-tax earnings.......................................................................................................
Income taxes............................................................................................................
Net income ..............................................................................................................
Earnings Statement (in $ millions) Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $676 in 20042004 $44,1422003 $32,106
and $605 in 2003)41,60429,885
利息费用(净额)5764
税前收益2,4812,157
所得税941813
净收入$ 1,540$ 1,344
Earnings Statement (in $ millions) Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $676 in 20042004 $44,1422003 $32,106
and $605 in 2003)41,60429,885
Interest expense (net)5764
Pre-tax earnings2,4812,157
Income taxes941813
Net income$ 1,540$ 1,344

这家业务范围五花八门的集团,从卖冰雪皇后蛋筒冰淇淋到卖波音 737 的部分产权,去年平均有形净资产收益率达到 21.7%,相当可观,2003 年是 20.7%。值得注意的是,这些业务实现这些收益只用了很少的财务杠杆。显然,我们拥有的这些生意相当不错。不过,其中不少是我们以高于净资产的价格买下的——这一情况反映在资产负债表上的商誉项目中——这也拉低了我们的平均账面收益率,降到 9.9%。以下是各大类业务或子公司的税前利润。

This eclectic group, which sells products ranging from Dilly Bars to fractional interests in Boeing 737s, earned a very respectable 21.7% on average tangible net worth last year, compared to 20.7% in 2003. It’s noteworthy that these operations used only minor financial leverage in achieving these returns. Clearly, we own some very good businesses. We purchased many of them, however, at substantial premiums to net worth – a matter that is reflected in the goodwill item shown on the balance sheet – and that fact reduces the earnings on our average carrying value to 9.9%. Here are the pre-tax earnings for the larger categories or units.

建材产品业务
肖氏工业
服装与鞋类业务
珠宝、家居用品及糖果零售业务
航空服务业务
麦克莱恩公司
其他业务
Building Products ....................................................................................................
Shaw Industries .......................................................................................................
Apparel & Footwear ................................................................................................
Retailing of Jewelry, Home Furnishings and Candy ...............................................
Flight Services.........................................................................................................
McLane....................................................................................................................
Other businesses ......................................................................................................
税前收益(百万美元)
20042003
建筑产品$ 643$ 559
Shaw Industries466436
服装与鞋类325289
珠宝、家居用品和糖果零售215224
飞行服务19172
McLane228150*
其他业务413427
$2,481$2,157
Pre-Tax Earnings(in $ millions)
20042003
Building Products$ 643$ 559
Shaw Industries466436
Apparel & Footwear325289
Retailing of Jewelry, Home Furnishings and Candy215224
Flight Services19172
McLane228150*
Other businesses413427
$2,481$2,157
  • 自收购之日起,即 2003 年 5 月 23 日。•
  • From date of acquisition, May 23, 2003. •

在建材板块和 Shaw 公司,我们经历了原材料和能源成本的惊人上涨。例如,到 12 月,MiTek(其主要业务为屋顶桁架连接件)的钢材成本比一年前上涨了 100%。而 MiTek 每年使用 6.65 亿磅钢材。尽管如此,这家公司依然表现出色。

In the building-products sector and at Shaw, we’ve experienced staggering cost increases for both rawmaterials and energy. By December, for example, steel costs at MiTek (whose primary business is connectors for roof trusses) were running 100% over a year earlier. And MiTek uses 665 million pounds of steel every year. Nevertheless, the company continues to be an outstanding performer.

13
13

自 2001 年我们收购米泰克公司以来,其首席执行官吉恩·图姆斯完成了一系列出色的“补强式”收购,正一步步打造出一个迷你版的伯克希尔。肖氏公司在这一年里遭遇了其主要纤维原材料价格的一连串上涨,这一冲击使其成本增加了超过 3 亿美元。(当你踩在地毯上时,实际上就是踩在加工过的石油上。)尽管我们随后也相应提高了产品价格,但其中不可避免地存在时间差。因此,随着这一年推进,利润率不断收窄,至今仍面临压力。尽管障碍重重,肖氏公司在鲍勃·肖和朱利安·索尔的带领下,2004 年仍实现了 25.6% 的出色有形资产回报率。这家公司实力雄厚,前景光明。

Since we purchased MiTek in 2001, Gene Toombs, its CEO, has made some brilliant “bolt-on” acquisitions and is on his way to creating a mini-Berkshire. Shaw fielded a barrage of price increases in its main fiber materials during the year, a hit that added more than $300 million to its costs. (When you walk on carpet you are, in effect, stepping on processed oil.) Though we followed these hikes in costs with price increases of our own, there was an inevitable lag. Therefore, margins narrowed as the year progressed and remain under pressure today. Despite these roadblocks, Shaw, led by Bob Shaw and Julian Saul, earned an outstanding 25.6% on tangible equity in 2004. The company is a powerhouse and has a bright future. •

在服装业务上,鲜果布衣的销量增加了 1000 万打,增幅 14%,其中女性和女孩内衣的出货量增长了 31%。查理在这方面的知识远比我丰富,他向我保证,女性并没有穿更多内衣。有了这位专家的意见,我只能得出结论,我们在女性品类的市场份额一定在快速上升。感谢约翰·霍兰德,鲜果布衣正在提速前进。规模较小的 Garan 公司也度过了出色的一年。在西摩·利希滕斯坦和杰里·卡米尔的带领下,这家公司生产广受欢迎的儿童 Garanimals 系列产品。下次你去沃尔玛时,不妨看看这个富有想象力的产品。

In apparel, Fruit of the Loom increased unit sales by 10 million dozen, or 14%, with shipments of intimate apparel for women and girls growing by 31%. Charlie, who is far more knowledgeable than I am on this subject, assures me that women are not wearing more underwear. With this expert input, I can only conclude that our market share in the women’s category must be growing rapidly. Thanks to John Holland, Fruit is on the move. A smaller operation, Garan, also had an excellent year. Led by Seymour Lichtenstein and Jerry Kamiel, this company manufactures the popular Garanimals line for children. Next time you are in a Wal-Mart, check out this imaginative product.

在我们的零售商中,本·布里奇珠宝(Ben Bridge)和 R.C. 威利家居(R. C. Willey)去年表现尤为突出。本·布里奇同店销售额增长 11.4%,是我所见过的上市珠宝商中最好的成绩。此外,公司利润率也在扩大。去年并非侥幸:过去十年间,该公司同店销售额平均增长 8.8%。埃德·布里奇(Ed Bridge)和乔恩·布里奇(Jon Bridge)是第四代管理者,经营这家公司就像经营自己的一样——除了股票证书上写着伯克希尔的名字,其余方面确实如此。布里奇家族通过选择合适的地段,更重要的是,在店里配备热情且知识渊博的员工,成功实现了扩张。我们今年将进入明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗市场。总部位于犹他州的 R.C. 威利,扩张带来的收益更为显著,2004 年销售额中 41.9% 来自 1999 年前不存在的州外门店。公司还在 2004 年提高了利润率,这得益于其在拉斯维加斯新开的两家门店。我很想告诉你这两家店是我的主意。实际上,我认为它们是错误。我当然知道比尔·查尔德(Bill Child)在犹他州经营 R.C. 威利时有多出色,那里的市场份额长期以来一直很大。但我认为我们周日关门的政策在州外会被证明是灾难性的。即使我们在博伊西的首家州外门店取得了巨大成功,我仍未被说服。我一直问,拉斯维加斯的居民习惯了每周七天营业的零售商,会不会适应我们。我们 2004 年在拉斯维加斯开的第一家店,响亮地回答了这个问题,立即成为我们销量最高的门店。比尔和斯科特·海马斯(Scott Hymas),继任的首席执行官,随后提议在约 20 分钟车程外再开一家拉斯维加斯门店。我觉得这次扩张会蚕食第一家店的生意,增加不少成本但只带来微薄的销售额。结果如何?两家店现在每家的销量都比连锁店其他任何门店高出约 26%,并且持续显示出显著的同比增长。R.C. 威利即将在雷诺开店。在做出这个决定之前,比尔和斯科特再次征求了我的意见。起初,我对他们来咨询我感到相当得意。但后来我意识到,一个总是错的人的看法对决策者来说自有其特殊用处。

Among our retailers, Ben Bridge (jewelry) and R. C. Willey (home furnishings) were particular standouts last year. At Ben Bridge same-store sales grew 11.4%, the best gain among the publicly-held jewelers whose reports I have seen. Additionally, the company’s profit margin widened. Last year was not a fluke: During the past decade, the same-store sales gains of the company have averaged 8.8%. Ed and Jon Bridge are fourth-generation managers and run the business exactly as if it were their own – which it is in every respect except for Berkshire’s name on the stock certificates. The Bridges have expanded successfully by securing the right locations and, more importantly, by staffing these stores with enthusiastic and knowledgeable associates. We will move into Minneapolis-St. Paul this year. At Utah-based R. C. Willey, the gains from expansion have been even more dramatic, with 41.9% of 2004 sales coming from out-of-state stores that didn’t exist before 1999. The company also improved its profit margin in 2004, propelled by its two new stores in Las Vegas. I would like to tell you that these stores were my idea. In truth, I thought they were mistakes. I knew, of course, how brilliantly Bill Child had run the R. C. Willey operation in Utah, where its market share had long been huge. But I felt our closed-on-Sunday policy would prove disastrous away from home. Even our first out-of-state store in Boise, which was highly successful, left me unconvinced. I kept asking whether Las Vegas residents, conditioned to seven-day-a-week retailers, would adjust to us. Our first Las Vegas store, opened in 2001, answered this question in a resounding manner, immediately becoming our number one unit. Bill and Scott Hymas, his successor as CEO, then proposed a second Las Vegas store, only about 20 minutes away. I felt this expansion would cannibalize the first unit, adding significant costs but only modest sales. The result? Each store is now doing about 26% more volume than any other store in the chain and is consistently showing large year-over-year gains. R. C. Willey will soon open in Reno. Before making this commitment, Bill and Scott again asked for my advice. Initially, I was pretty puffed up about the fact that they were consulting me. But then it dawned on me that the opinion of someone who is always wrong has its own special utility to decisionmakers.

14
14

飞行服务业务的利润有所提升。飞安国际,全球飞行员培训的领军者,得益于企业航空业的复苏及与地区航空公司业务的增长,利润上升。目前我们运营着 283 台模拟器,原始成本达 12 亿美元。飞行员在这昂贵设备上是一对一进行训练,意味着每产生 1 美元的年收入,需投入高达 3.50 美元的资金。鉴于如此高的资本密集度,飞安国际要求极高的运营利润率,以确保资本回报合理,这意味着设备利用率至关重要。去年,飞安国际的有形净资产收益率从 2003 年的 8.4% 提升至 15.1%。2004 年还有一事,艾尔·乌尔茨基,1951 年以 1 万美元创立飞安国际,将首席执行官职位交给了在公司工作 43 年的老将布鲁斯·惠特曼。(不过艾尔不会离开;我不放他走。)布鲁斯与艾尔有着相同的信念:驾驶飞机是一种特权,只应授予那些定期接受最高质量培训、且能力毋庸置疑的人。几年前,查理曾应一位大亨朋友之请向艾尔求情,那人被飞安国际判定不合格。艾尔对查理的答复是:“告诉你那位朋友,他该坐飞机后座,而不是驾驶舱。”飞安国际的头号客户是 NetJets 公务航空,我们的飞机分时所有权子公司。其 2100 名飞行员平均每年接受 18 天培训。此外,这些飞行员只飞一种机型,而许多飞行运营部门却让飞行员在多种机型间调配。NetJets 在这两方面的严格标准,是我早在伯克希尔收购前多年就选择它的两个原因。不过,在我决定使用并收购 NetJets 时,同样重要的是,公司由里奇·圣图利管理,他是分时所有权行业的开创者,对安全和服务近乎痴迷。我把选择飞行服务提供商比作挑选脑外科医生:你当然要最好的。(让旁人去试低价者吧。)去年,NetJets 在主导该行业的四家公司中,再次赢得约 70% 的净新增业务(按美元价值计算)。我们增长的一部分来自 Marquis Jet Partners 推出的 25 小时卡。Marquis 并非 NetJets 所有,而是我们的客户,它将从我们这里购买的服务重新打包成更小的套餐,通过其卡片销售。Marquis 只与 NetJets 合作,利用我们的声誉进行营销。2004 年,包括 Marquis 客户在内,我们的美国合同从 3877 份增至 4967 份(而 1998 年伯克希尔收购 NetJets 时约为 1200 份)。一些客户(包括我)签订多份合同,因为他们希望使用多种机型,根据每次行程选择最合适的机型。去年 NetJets 在美国盈利微薄,但国内收入大部分被欧洲的亏损抵消。不过,我们海外业务正显现出真正势头。年内合同(包括我们在欧洲自行销售的 25 小时卡)从 364 份增至 693 份。2005 年我们仍将在欧洲面临较大亏损,但国内盈利可能使总账转正。欧洲对 NetJets 来说成本高昂——远超我当初预期——但这对打造一个永居超群地位的飞行运营至关重要。我们的美国客户无论走到哪里都期望优质服务,未来几十年他们海外飞行时长必将大幅增长。去年,美国客户在欧洲完成了 2003 个航班,比前年增长 22%,比 2000 年增长 137%。同样重要的是,欧洲客户在美国完成了 1067 个航班,比 2003 年增长 65%,比 2000 年增长 239%。

Earnings improved in flight services. At FlightSafety, the world’s leader in pilot training, profits rose as corporate aviation rebounded and our business with regional airlines increased. We now operate 283 simulators with an original cost of $1.2 billion. Pilots are trained one at a time on this expensive equipment. This means that as much as $3.50 of capital investment is required to produce $1 of annual revenue. With this level of capital intensity, FlightSafety requires very high operating margins in order to obtain reasonable returns on capital, which means that utilization rates are all-important. Last year, FlightSafety’s return on tangible equity improved to 15.1% from 8.4% in 2003. In another 2004 event, Al Ueltschi, who founded FlightSafety in 1951 with $10,000, turned over the CEO position to Bruce Whitman, a 43-year veteran at the company. (But Al’s not going anywhere; I won’t let him.) Bruce shares Al’s conviction that flying an aircraft is a privilege to be extended only to people who regularly receive the highest quality of training and are undeniably competent. A few years ago, Charlie was asked to intervene with Al on behalf of a tycoon friend whom FlightSafety had flunked. Al’s reply to Charlie: “Tell your pal he belongs in the back of the plane, not the cockpit.” FlightSafety’s number one customer is NetJets, our aircraft fractional-ownership subsidiary. Its 2,100 pilots spend an average of 18 days a year in training. Additionally, these pilots fly only one aircraft type whereas many flight operations juggle pilots among several types. NetJets’ high standards on both fronts are two of the reasons I signed up with the company years before Berkshire bought it. Fully as important in my decisions to both use and buy NetJets, however, was the fact that the company was managed by Rich Santulli, the creator of the fractional-ownership industry and a fanatic about safety and service. I viewed the selection of a flight provider as akin to picking a brain surgeon: you simply want the best. (Let someone else experiment with the low bidder.) Last year NetJets again gained about 70% of the net new business (measured by dollar value) going to the four companies that dominate the industry. A portion of our growth came from the 25-hour card offered by Marquis Jet Partners. Marquis is not owned by NetJets, but is instead a customer that repackages the purchases it makes from us into smaller packages that it sells through its card. Marquis deals exclusively with NetJets, utilizing the power of our reputation in its marketing. Our U.S. contracts, including Marquis customers, grew from 3,877 to 4,967 in 2004 (versus approximately 1,200 contracts when Berkshire bought NetJets in 1998). Some clients (including me) enter into multiple contracts because they wish to use more than one type of aircraft, selecting for any given trip whichever type best fits the mission at hand. NetJets earned a modest amount in the U.S. last year. But what we earned domestically was largely offset by losses in Europe. We are now, however, generating real momentum abroad. Contracts (including 25-hour cards that we ourselves market in Europe) increased from 364 to 693 during the year. We will again have a very significant European loss in 2005, but domestic earnings will likely put us in the black overall. Europe has been expensive for NetJets – far more expensive than I anticipated – but it is essential to building a flight operation that will forever be in a class by itself. Our U.S. owners already want a quality service wherever they travel and their wish for flight hours abroad is certain to grow dramatically in the decades ahead. Last year, U.S. owners made 2,003 flights in Europe, up 22% from the previous year and 137% from 2000. Just as important, our European owners made 1,067 flights in the U.S., up 65% from 2003 and 239% from 2000.

15
15

以下是我们的普通股投资列表。截至 2004 年底,市值超过 6 亿美元的投资项目已逐项列出。

Investments We show below our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $600 million at the end of 2004 are itemized.

12/31/04
12/31/04

公司持股比例

Percentage of Company Owned

Shares

Shares

Company

Company

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

151,610,700 200,000,000 96,000,000 14,350,600 6,708,760 24,000,000 2,338,961,000 1,727,765 56,448,380 1,724,200
151,610,700 200,000,000 96,000,000 14,350,600 6,708,760 24,000,000 2,338,961,000 1,727,765 56,448,380 1,724,200
美国运通公司
可口可乐公司
吉列公司
H&R 布洛克公司
M&T 银行公司
穆迪公司
中国石油“H”股(或等价物)
《华盛顿邮报》公司
富国银行公司
白山保险集团
其他
普通股总计
American Express Company ...................
The Coca-Cola Company ........................
The Gillette Company .............................
H&R Block, Inc.......................................
M&T Bank Corporation ..........................
Moody’s Corporation ..............................
PetroChina “H” shares (or equivalents)...
The Washington Post Company ..............
Wells Fargo & Company.........................
White Mountains Insurance.....................
Others ......................................................
Total Common Stocks .............................
151,610,700美国运通公司12.1$1,470$ 8,546
200,000,000可口可乐公司8.31,2998,328
96,000,000吉列公司9.76004,299
14,350,600H&R Block公司8.7223703
6,708,760M&T银行公司5.8103723
24,000,000穆迪公司16.24992,084
2,338,961,000中国石油“H”股(或等值)……1.34881,249
1,727,765《华盛顿邮报》公司18.1111,698
56,448,380富国银行公司3.34633,508
1,724,200白山保险16.03691,114
其他3,5315,465
普通股总计$9,056$37,717
151,610,700American Express Company12.1$1,470$ 8,546
200,000,000The Coca-Cola Company8.31,2998,328
96,000,000The Gillette Company9.76004,299
14,350,600H&R Block, Inc8.7223703
6,708,760M&T Bank Corporation5.8103723
24,000,000Moody’s Corporation16.24992,084
2,338,961,000PetroChina “H” shares (or equivalents)...1.34881,249
1,727,765The Washington Post Company18.1111,698
56,448,380Wells Fargo & Company3.34633,508
1,724,200White Mountains Insurance16.03691,114
Others3,5315,465
Total Common Stocks$9,056$37,717

*这是我们实际支付的价格,也是我们的计税基准;由于会计上要求的重估增值或减值,个别项目的 GAAP“成本”会有所不同。有些人可能会把这表格视为按图表形态、券商观点或短期盈利预测来买卖股票的清单,查理和我对这些干扰视而不见,而是将我们的持股视为企业的部分所有权。这是关键的区别。事实上,这一思路自 19 岁起就是我投资行为的基石。那时我读了本·格雷厄姆的《聪明的投资者》,顿时茅塞顿开。(此前,我被股市迷得神魂颠倒,却对如何投资毫无头绪。)让我们来看看“四大重仓”——美国运通、可口可乐、吉列和富国银行——自我们买入以来的表现。如表所示,我们在 1988 年 5 月至 2003 年 10 月间通过多次交易,在这四家公司上总计投入 3.83 亿美元。按综合口径计算,我们的加权购买日为 1992 年 7 月。因此,到 2004 年底,我们持有这些“企业权益”已加权约 12 年半。2004 年,伯克希尔在这组公司的利润中所占份额达 12 亿美元。这些利润可以合理视为“正常”水平。诚然,吉列和富国银行在列报利润时未含期权成本,这推高了数据;但另一方面,可口可乐因一次性减值计提又拉低了数据。我们对这四家公司利润的份额几乎每年都在增长,如今已约占我们成本的 31.3%。它们给我们带来的现金分红也持续增加,2004 年总计 4.34 亿美元,约占成本的 11.3%。总体而言,四大重仓为我们交出了令人满意的答卷,虽然谈不上惊艳。我们在市场上对这群公司的体验也是如此。自最初买入以来,估值提升带来的收益略超利润增长,因为市盈率有所上升。然而,逐年来看,企业经营与市场表现常常背离,有时背离幅度相当惊人。在大泡沫时期,市值增长远远超过企业本身的业绩。泡沫破灭后,情况恰好相反。

*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. Some people may look at this table and view it as a list of stocks to be bought and sold based upon chart patterns, brokers’ opinions, or estimates of near-term earnings. Charlie and I ignore such distractions and instead view our holdings as fractional ownerships in businesses. This is an important distinction. Indeed, this thinking has been the cornerstone of my investment behavior since I was 19. At that time I read Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, and the scales fell from my eyes. (Previously, I had been entranced by the stock market, but didn’t have a clue about how to invest.) Let’s look at how the businesses of our “Big Four” – American Express, Coca-Cola, Gillette and Wells Fargo – have fared since we bought into these companies. As the table shows, we invested $3.83 billion in the four, by way of multiple transactions between May 1988 and October 2003. On a composite basis, our dollar-weighted purchase date is July 1992. By yearend 2004, therefore, we had held these “business interests,” on a weighted basis, about 12½ years. In 2004, Berkshire’s share of the group’s earnings amounted to $1.2 billion. These earnings might legitimately be considered “normal.” True, they were swelled because Gillette and Wells Fargo omitted option costs in their presentation of earnings; but on the other hand they were reduced because Coke had a non-recurring write-off. Our share of the earnings of these four companies has grown almost every year, and now amounts to about 31.3% of our cost. Their cash distributions to us have also grown consistently, totaling $434 million in 2004, or about 11.3% of cost. All in all, the Big Four have delivered us a satisfactory, though far from spectacular, business result. That’s true as well of our experience in the market with the group. Since our original purchases, valuation gains have somewhat exceeded earnings growth because price/earnings ratios have increased. On a year-to-year basis, however, the business and market performances have often diverged, sometimes to an extraordinary degree. During The Great Bubble, market-value gains far outstripped the performance of the businesses. In the aftermath of the Bubble, the reverse was true.

16
16

显然,如果我能把握住这轮钟摆的摆动,伯克希尔的业绩本会好得多。透过永远干净的后视镜看问题,这似乎轻而易举。但不幸的是,投资者必须透过挡风玻璃向前看,而那层玻璃总是蒙着雾气。我们庞大的持仓让在估值摆动时灵活进出变得更加困难。然而,批评我只在泡沫期间对高得离谱的估值空喊几句而未付诸行动,这确实有理。尽管我当时说过,我们持有的某些股票定价过高,但我低估了估值虚高的严重程度。我本该行动时却只说了话。现在,我和查理想要的是实实在在的行动。我们不喜欢坐在 430 亿美元现金等价物上,只赚取微薄的回报。相反,我们渴望买入更多像现在持有的这类部分股权,或者更好——直接买下更多大型企业。但无论哪种方式,只有在买入价格能让我们看到合理投资回报前景时,我们才会出手。

Clearly, Berkshire’s results would have been far better if I had caught this swing of the pendulum. That may seem easy to do when one looks through an always-clean, rear-view mirror. Unfortunately, however, it’s the windshield through which investors must peer, and that glass is invariably fogged. Our huge positions add to the difficulty of our nimbly dancing in and out of holdings as valuations swing. Nevertheless, I can properly be criticized for merely clucking about nose-bleed valuations during the Bubble rather than acting on my views. Though I said at the time that certain of the stocks we held were priced ahead of themselves, I underestimated just how severe the overvaluation was. I talked when I should have walked. What Charlie and I would like is a little action now. We don’t enjoy sitting on $43 billion of cash equivalents that are earning paltry returns. Instead, we yearn to buy more fractional interests similar to those we now own or – better still – more large businesses outright. We will do either, however, only when purchases can be made at prices that offer us the prospect of a reasonable return on our investment.

****

****

我们反复强调过,我们按季度或年度报告的那些“已实现”收益,在分析层面毫无意义。我们账面上有大量未实现收益,而我们在何时以及是否兑现这些收益上的考虑,完全不受某个特定时间点报告盈利的欲望左右。我们报告收益的另一个复杂性在于,通用会计准则要求外汇合约按市价计值,这一规定导致这些持仓的未实现损益流经我们公布的盈利,仿佛我们已经卖掉了持仓一样。尽管存在上述种种问题,您可能还是想了解一下我们 2003 年和 2004 年报告收益的细分情况。这些数据反映的是实际销售,但货币收益除外,它们由销售和按市价计值两部分组成。税前收益(单位:百万美元)

20042003
$870$448
1041,485
7301,138
1,839825
233(47)
$3,496$4,129

We’ve repeatedly emphasized that the “realized” gains that we report quarterly or annually are meaningless for analytical purposes. We have a huge amount of unrealized gains on our books, and our thinking about when, and if, to cash them depends not at all on a desire to report earnings at one specific time or another. A further complication in our reported gains occurs because GAAP requires that foreign exchange contracts be marked to market, a stipulation that causes unrealized gains or losses in these holdings to flow through our published earnings as if we had sold our positions. Despite the problems enumerated, you may be interested in a breakdown of the gains we reported in 2003 and 2004. The data reflect actual sales except in the case of currency gains, which are a combination of sales and marks to market. Pre-Tax Gain (in $ millions) 2004 2003 $ 870 $ 448 104 1,485 730 1,138 1,839 825 233 (47) $3,496 $4,129

类别数额
普通股
美国政府债券
垃圾债券
外汇合约
其他
总计
Category
Common Stocks .............................
U.S. Government Bonds.................
Junk Bonds .....................................
Foreign Exchange Contracts...........
Other...............................................
Total ...............................................

垃圾债券的利润中包含了一块外汇成分。我们在 2001 年和 2002 年买入这些债券时,首先关注的当然是发行方的信用质量,这些发行方都是美国公司。不过,其中一些公司发行的债券以外国货币计价。基于我们对美元的看法,只要有这样的债券可买,我们就倾向于买入。举个例子,我们在 2001 年以票面价值的 51.7% 买入了 2.54 亿欧元的 Level 3 债券(票息 10.75%,2008 年到期),2004 年 12 月以票面价值的 85% 卖出。这笔债券以欧元交易,买入时欧元兑美元为 88 美分,卖出时已涨到 1.29 美元。因此,在我们总计 1.63 亿美元的收益中,约 8500 万美元来自市场对 Level 3 信用评价的修正,其余 7800 万美元来自欧元升值。(此外,持有期间我们还收到了现金利息,按美元成本计算,年化收益率约为 25%。)

The junk bond profits include a foreign exchange component. When we bought these bonds in 2001 and 2002, we focused first, of course, on the credit quality of the issuers, all of which were American corporations. Some of these companies, however, had issued bonds denominated in foreign currencies. Because of our views on the dollar, we favored these for purchase when they were available. As an example, we bought €254 million of Level 3 bonds (10 ¾% of 2008) in 2001 at 51.7% of par, and sold these at 85% of par in December 2004. This issue was traded in Euros that cost us 88¢ at the time of purchase but that brought $1.29 when we sold. Thus, of our $163 million overall gain, about $85 million came from the market’s revised opinion about Level 3’s credit quality, with the remaining $78 million resulting from the appreciation of the Euro. (In addition, we received cash interest during our holding period that amounted to about 25% annually on our dollar cost.)

****

****

媒体还在持续报道“巴菲特买入”了这只或那只股票。这类说法几乎总是基于伯克希尔向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件,因此是错误的。正如我之前说过的,这些报道应该说成“伯克希尔买入”。

The media continue to report that “Buffett buys” this or that stock. Statements like these are almost always based on filings Berkshire makes with the SEC and are therefore wrong. As I’ve said before, the stories should say “Berkshire buys.”

17
17

有纪律的投资者画像:卢·辛普森

Portrait of a Disciplined Investor Lou Simpson

年度GEICO股权投资回报标普回报相对结果
198023.7%32.3%(8.6%)
19815.4%(5.0%)10.4%
198245.8%21.4%24.4%
198336.0%22.4%13.6%
198421.8%6.1%15.7%
198545.8%31.6%14.2%
198638.7%18.6%20.1%
1987(10.0%)5.1%(15.1%)
198830.0%16.6%13.4%
198936.1%31.7%4.4%
1990(9.9%)(3.1%)(6.8%)
199156.5%30.5%26.0%
199210.8%7.6%3.2%
19934.6%10.1%(5.5%)
199413.4%1.3%12.1%
199539.8%37.6%2.2%
199629.2%23.0%6.2%
199724.6%33.4%(8.8%)
199818.6%28.6%(10.0%)
19997.2%21.0%(13.8%)
200020.9%(9.1%)30.0%
20015.2%(11.9%)17.1%
2002(8.1%)(22.1%)14.0%
200338.3%28.7%9.6%
200416.9%10.9%6.0%
1980-2004年平均年度收益20.3%13.5%6.8%
YearReturn from GEICO EquitiesS&P ReturnRelative Results
198023.7%32.3%(8.6%)
19815.4%(5.0%)10.4%
198245.8%21.4%24.4%
198336.0%22.4%13.6%
198421.8%6.1%15.7%
198545.8%31.6%14.2%
198638.7%18.6%20.1%
1987(10.0%)5.1%(15.1%)
198830.0%16.6%13.4%
198936.1%31.7%4.4%
1990(9.9%)(3.1%)(6.8%)
199156.5%30.5%26.0%
199210.8%7.6%3.2%
19934.6%10.1%(5.5%)
199413.4%1.3%12.1%
199539.8%37.6%2.2%
199629.2%23.0%6.2%
199724.6%33.4%(8.8%)
199818.6%28.6%(10.0%)
19997.2%21.0%(13.8%)
200020.9%(9.1%)30.0%
20015.2%(11.9%)17.1%
2002(8.1%)(22.1%)14.0%
200338.3%28.7%9.6%
200416.9%10.9%6.0%
Average Annual Gain 1980-200420.3%13.5%6.8%
20.3%
13.5%
6.8%
18
20.3%
13.5%
6.8%
18

即便如此,做购买决定的通常也不是我。卢·辛普森管理着 GEICO 持有的约 25 亿美元股票,伯克希尔通常报告的正是他的交易。他惯常的买入规模在 2 亿至 3 亿美元之间,关注的公司比我所聚焦的要小。看看对面一页,就能明白卢为何铁定能入选投资名人堂。你可能想不到,卢并不一定把他正在做的事告诉我。当查理和我分派职责时,我们是真的交出接力棒——我们给卢的,正如给我们那些经营管理者的一样。因此,我通常在每个月的十天后才得知卢的交易。有时,也得补充一句,我私下里并不同意他的决定。但他通常是对的。

Even then, it is typically not I who make the buying decisions. Lou Simpson manages about $2½ billion of equities that are held by GEICO, and it is his transactions that Berkshire is usually reporting. Customarily his purchases are in the $200-$300 million range and are in companies that are smaller than the ones I focus on. Take a look at the facing page to see why Lou is a cinch to be inducted into the investment Hall of Fame. You may be surprised to learn that Lou does not necessarily inform me about what he is doing. When Charlie and I assign responsibility, we truly hand over the baton – and we give it to Lou just as we do to our operating managers. Therefore, I typically learn of Lou’s transactions about ten days after the end of each month. Sometimes, it should be added, I silently disagree with his decisions. But he’s usually right.

Foreign Currencies

Foreign Currencies

年底时,伯克希尔持有约 214 亿美元的外汇合约,分布在 12 种货币中。正如我去年提到的,这类持仓对我们来说是一次彻底的变化。在 2002 年 3 月之前,无论是伯克希尔还是我本人,都从未涉足外汇交易。但越来越多的证据表明,我们的贸易政策将在未来多年给美元带来持续压力——因此自 2002 年以来,我们在制定投资路线时便留意了这一警示。(正如 W.C. 菲尔兹一次被讨钱时所说:“抱歉,孩子,我的钱全被套在货币上了。”)有一点要说清楚:我们对货币的看法绝不是源于对美国本身的怀疑。我们生活在一个极其富有的国家,这是一个珍视市场经济、法治和机会平等制度的产物。我们的经济无疑是世界上最强大的,并将继续保持下去。我们很幸运能生活在这里。但正如我在 2003 年 11 月 10 日发表于《财富》杂志的文章(可在 berkshirehathaway.com 查阅)中所论述的,我国的贸易行为正在拖累美元。美元价值已经大幅下跌,但很可能还会继续。如果不改变政策,货币市场甚至可能陷入混乱,并产生政治和金融两方面的溢出效应。没人知道这些问题是否会成真。但这种局面远非遥不可及,决策者现在就该加以考虑。然而,他们的倾向是近乎放任自流:一份长达 318 页、关于持续贸易赤字后果的国会研究报告于 2000 年 11 月发布,此后一直尘封无人问津。这份研究是在赤字于 1999 年达到当时令人震惊的 2630 亿美元后下令进行的;到去年,赤字已攀升至 6180 亿美元。需要强调的是,查理和我相信,真正的贸易——即与其他国家交换商品和服务——对双方都有巨大好处。去年我们进行了 1.15 万亿美元的这类货真价实的贸易,越多越好。但如前所述,我国还额外从世界其他国家购买了 6180 亿美元的商品和服务,而这些并未得到对等回报。这是一个惊人的数字,也带来了重要后果。这种单向伪贸易的平衡项目——在经济中总会有对冲——是从美国向世界其他地区的财富转移。这种转移可能以我国私人或政府机构向外国人出具借据的形式出现,也可能通过他们取得我们资产的所有权来实现,比如股票和房地产。无论哪种情况,最终都是美国人拥有我国资产的比例缩小,而非美国人拥有的比例增大。这种将美国财富强行输送到世界其他地区的进程,目前正以每天 18 亿美元的速度进行,比去年我写信给你时增加了 20%。因此,其他国家及其公民现在净持有约 3 万亿美元的美国资产。十年前,他们的净持有量微乎其微。提到万亿级别,大多数人都会头脑发麻。另一个混淆来源在于,经常账户赤字(三项之和,其中贸易赤字是最重要的一项)和我们的国家预算赤字常被并称为“孪生赤字”。它们绝非同类。两者成因不同,后果也各异。

Berkshire owned about $21.4 billion of foreign exchange contracts at yearend, spread among 12 currencies. As I mentioned last year, holdings of this kind are a decided change for us. Before March 2002, neither Berkshire nor I had ever traded in currencies. But the evidence grows that our trade policies will put unremitting pressure on the dollar for many years to come – so since 2002 we’ve heeded that warning in setting our investment course. (As W.C. Fields once said when asked for a handout: “Sorry, son, all my money’s tied up in currency.”) Be clear on one point: In no way does our thinking about currencies rest on doubts about America. We live in an extraordinarily rich country, the product of a system that values market economics, the rule of law and equality of opportunity. Our economy is far and away the strongest in the world and will continue to be. We are lucky to live here. But as I argued in a November 10, 2003 article in Fortune, (available at berkshirehathaway.com), our country’s trade practices are weighing down the dollar. The decline in its value has already been substantial, but is nevertheless likely to continue. Without policy changes, currency markets could even become disorderly and generate spillover effects, both political and financial. No one knows whether these problems will materialize. But such a scenario is a far-from-remote possibility that policymakers should be considering now. Their bent, however, is to lean toward not-so-benign neglect: A 318-page Congressional study of the consequences of unremitting trade deficits was published in November 2000 and has been gathering dust ever since. The study was ordered after the deficit hit a then-alarming $263 billion in 1999; by last year it had risen to $618 billion. Charlie and I, it should be emphasized, believe that true trade – that is, the exchange of goods and services with other countries – is enormously beneficial for both us and them. Last year we had $1.15 trillion of such honest-to-God trade and the more of this, the better. But, as noted, our country also purchased an additional $618 billion in goods and services from the rest of the world that was unreciprocated. That is a staggering figure and one that has important consequences. The balancing item to this one-way pseudo-trade — in economics there is always an offset — is a transfer of wealth from the U.S. to the rest of the world. The transfer may materialize in the form of IOUs our private or governmental institutions give to foreigners, or by way of their assuming ownership of our assets, such as stocks and real estate. In either case, Americans end up owning a reduced portion of our country while non-Americans own a greater part. This force-feeding of American wealth to the rest of the world is now proceeding at the rate of $1.8 billion daily, an increase of 20% since I wrote you last year. Consequently, other countries and their citizens now own a net of about $3 trillion of the U.S. A decade ago their net ownership was negligible. The mention of trillions numbs most brains. A further source of confusion is that the current account deficit (the sum of three items, the most important by far being the trade deficit) and our national budget deficit are often lumped as “twins.” They are anything but. They have different causes and different consequences.

19
19

预算赤字绝不会减少美国人分到国民蛋糕的比例。只要其他国家及其公民对美国没有净所有权,那么在任何预算情景下,哪怕赤字巨大,我们国家产出的 100% 都属于我们自己的公民。作为一个物资充裕的“大家庭”,美国人会通过议员争论政府该如何重新分配国民产出——也就是谁缴税、谁领政府福利。如果早先许下的“福利承诺”需要重新审视,“家庭成员”会愤怒地争论谁该承受痛苦。也许税收会上调,也许承诺会修改,也许国内债务会增发。但吵完之后,这个家庭巨大的蛋糕仍然全部供其成员享用,不管怎么分。没有一块要送到国外。庞大且持续的经常账户赤字则带来截然不同的结果。随着时间推移,随着别国对我们的求偿权不断累积,我们自己生产的成果归属我们的份额越来越小。实际上,世界其他国家对美国产出享有越来越高的分成。在这里,我们就像一个长期入不敷出的家庭。时间一长,这个家庭发现,自己越来越多地为“信贷公司”打工,为自己干活的部分越来越少。如果我们继续维持当前规模的经常账户赤字,十年后其他国家及其公民对美国的净所有权将累计达到约 11 万亿美元。而且,如果外国投资者在这笔净持有上只赚取 5% 的回报,我们每年就得净输出 5500 亿美元的商品和服务,仅仅用来偿付届时外国人持有的美国投资。到那时,也就是十年后,我们的国内生产总值大概会达到 18 万亿美元(假设低通胀,但这远非板上钉钉)。因此,我们美国的“大家庭”那时要将年产的 3% 交给世界其他地方,纯属为过去的挥霍买单。这种情况下,与预算赤字不同,儿子们真要替父辈还债了。这笔每年付给世界的分成——除非美国大幅减少消费并开始持续出现大规模贸易顺差,否则不会消失——无疑会在美国引发严重的政治动荡。美国人仍会过得很好,实际上比现在更好,因为经济在增长。但他们会对永远向海外债权人和“老板”进贡这种念头感到愤懑。一个如今向往“所有者社会”的国家,不会在——我这里夸张一点以强调——一个“佃农社会”里找到幸福。但这恰恰是我们的贸易政策,在共和党和民主党共同支持下,正把我们带向的境地。美国许多知名金融界人士,无论是否身在政府,都表示我们的经常账户赤字无法持续。例如,美联储公开市场委员会 2004 年 6 月 29-30 日的会议纪要写道:“工作人员指出,过大的外部赤字不可能无限期维持。”但是,尽管这些大人物不断唉声叹气,他们却没有提出任何实质性建议来抑制这一日益膨胀的失衡。十六个月前我为《财富》杂志写的那篇文章中,我警告“美元温和贬值解决不了问题。”迄今为止确实如此。但政策制定者仍寄望于“软着陆”,同时劝其他国家刺激(读作“注水”)经济,劝美国人多储蓄。在我看来,这些告诫没有切中要害:存在深层次的结构性问题,除非贸易政策发生实质改变,或者美元贬值到可能令金融市场不安的程度,否则美国将继续维持巨大的经常账户赤字。贸易现状的支持者喜欢引用亚当·斯密的话:“治家之审慎,用于大王国亦少显愚昧。若外国能以比我们自己制造更便宜的价格供应某种商品,那就用我们拥有某些优势的产业产出一部分产品去向他们购买。”我同意。但请注意,斯密先生说的是产品换产品,而不是像我们国家这样每年以价值 6000 亿美元的财富换产品。而且,我相信他绝不会认为“审慎”包含他的“家庭”每天变卖一部分农场。

A budget deficit in no way reduces the portion of the national pie that goes to Americans. As long as other countries and their citizens have no net ownership of the U.S., 100% of our country’s output belongs to our citizens under any budget scenario, even one involving a huge deficit. As a rich “family” awash in goods, Americans will argue through their legislators as to how government should redistribute the national output – that is who pays taxes and who receives governmental benefits. If “entitlement” promises from an earlier day have to be reexamined, “family members” will angrily debate among themselves as to who feels the pain. Maybe taxes will go up; maybe promises will be modified; maybe more internal debt will be issued. But when the fight is finished, all of the family’s huge pie remains available for its members, however it is divided. No slice must be sent abroad. Large and persisting current account deficits produce an entirely different result. As time passes, and as claims against us grow, we own less and less of what we produce. In effect, the rest of the world enjoys an ever-growing royalty on American output. Here, we are like a family that consistently overspends its income. As time passes, the family finds that it is working more and more for the “finance company” and less for itself. Should we continue to run current account deficits comparable to those now prevailing, the net ownership of the U.S. by other countries and their citizens a decade from now will amount to roughly $11 trillion. And, if foreign investors were to earn only 5% on that net holding, we would need to send a net of $.55 trillion of goods and services abroad every year merely to service the U.S. investments then held by foreigners. At that date, a decade out, our GDP would probably total about $18 trillion (assuming low inflation, which is far from a sure thing). Therefore, our U.S. “family” would then be delivering 3% of its annual output to the rest of the world simply as tribute for the overindulgences of the past. In this case, unlike that involving budget deficits, the sons would truly pay for the sins of their fathers. This annual royalty paid the world – which would not disappear unless the U.S. massively underconsumed and began to run consistent and large trade surpluses – would undoubtedly produce significant political unrest in the U.S. Americans would still be living very well, indeed better than now because of the growth in our economy. But they would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an “Ownership Society” will not find happiness in – and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis – a “Sharecropper’s Society.” But that’s precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us. Many prominent U.S. financial figures, both in and out of government, have stated that our current-account deficits cannot persist. For instance, the minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee of June 29-30, 2004 say: “The staff noted that outsized external deficits could not be sustained indefinitely.” But, despite the constant handwringing by luminaries, they offer no substantive suggestions to tame the burgeoning imbalance. In the article I wrote for Fortune 16 months ago, I warned that “a gently declining dollar would not provide the answer.” And so far it hasn’t. Yet policymakers continue to hope for a “soft landing,” meanwhile counseling other countries to stimulate (read “inflate”) their economies and Americans to save more. In my view these admonitions miss the mark: There are deep-rooted structural problems that will cause America to continue to run a huge current-account deficit unless trade policies either change materially or the dollar declines by a degree that could prove unsettling to financial markets. Proponents of the trade status quo are fond of quoting Adam Smith: “What is prudence in the conduct of every family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage.” I agree. Note, however, that Mr. Smith’s statement refers to trade of product for product, not of wealth for product as our country is doing to the tune of $.6 trillion annually. Moreover, I am sure that he would never have suggested that “prudence” consisted of his “family” selling off part of its farm every day

20
20

为了给其过度消费提供资金。然而,号称“伟大王国”的美利坚合众国恰恰正在这么做。如果美国拥有 6000 亿美元的经常账户盈余,全世界的评论家都会猛烈抨击我们的政策,视其为极端形式的“重商主义”——一种早已名誉扫地的经济战略,主张国家鼓励出口、限制进口、聚敛财富。我也会谴责这样的政策。但实际上,无论是否有意为之,世界其他地区对美国实行的正是重商主义,而这之所以可能,是因为我们拥有庞大的资产储备和无可挑剔的信用记录。事实上,世界绝不会允许任何其他国家像我们这样,无节制地使用以本国货币计价的信用卡。目前,大多数外国投资者持乐观态度:他们或许把我们看作消费成瘾者,但也知道我们是富有的瘾君子。然而,我们的挥霍行为不会无限期地被容忍。尽管无法预测贸易问题将在何时、以何种方式得到解决,但解决之道不太可能促进我们货币相对于贸易伙伴货币升值。我们希望美国采取政策,迅速且大幅削减经常账户赤字。诚然,迅速解决问题的方案很可能导致伯克希尔在外汇合约上录得亏损。但伯克希尔的资源依然高度集中于以美元计价的资产,强势美元和低通胀环境都极其符合我们的利益。如果你希望及时了解贸易和货币事务,请阅读《金融时报》。这份总部位于伦敦的报纸长期以来一直是国际每日财经新闻的主要来源,如今拥有出色的美国版。其贸易报道与评论均属一流。

in order to finance its overconsumption. Yet that is just what the “great kingdom” called the United States is doing. If the U.S. was running a $.6 trillion current-account surplus, commentators worldwide would violently condemn our policy, viewing it as an extreme form of “mercantilism” – a long-discredited economic strategy under which countries fostered exports, discouraged imports, and piled up treasure. I would condemn such a policy as well. But, in effect if not in intent, the rest of the world is practicing mercantilism in respect to the U.S., an act made possible by our vast store of assets and our pristine credit history. Indeed, the world would never let any other country use a credit card denominated in its own currency to the insatiable extent we are employing ours. Presently, most foreign investors are sanguine: they may view us as spending junkies, but they know we are rich junkies as well. Our spendthrift behavior won’t, however, be tolerated indefinitely. And though it’s impossible to forecast just when and how the trade problem will be resolved, it’s improbable that the resolution will foster an increase in the value of our currency relative to that of our trading partners. We hope the U.S. adopts policies that will quickly and substantially reduce the current-account deficit. True, a prompt solution would likely cause Berkshire to record losses on its foreign-exchange contracts. But Berkshire’s resources remain heavily concentrated in dollar-based assets, and both a strong dollar and a low-inflation environment are very much in our interest. If you wish to keep abreast of trade and currency matters, read The Financial Times. This London-based paper has long been the leading source for daily international financial news and now has an excellent American edition. Both its reporting and commentary on trade are first-class.

****

****

另外,我们照例要提出一个警示:宏观经济学是一场艰难的游戏,连查理和我本人在内,极少有人展现出这方面的才能。我们在货币判断上很可能出错。(事实上,现在这么多权威预测美元走弱,这本身让我们感到不安。)如果真错了,我们的错误会非常公开。讽刺的是,如果我们选择相反的做法,让伯克希尔的所有资产都留在美元上,哪怕美元大幅贬值,也没人会注意到我们的错误。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在他那本精妙绝伦的《通论》中写道:“世俗智慧告诉我们,遵循常规而失败,比违背常规而成功,对声誉更好。”(或者,用不那么优雅的话说,旅鼠作为一个群体可能会被嘲笑,但从未有哪只个体旅鼠挨过批评。)从声誉角度看,查理和我承担外汇承诺的确有明确风险。但我们相信,像管理伯克希尔一样管理它,就好比我们百分之百拥有它。果真如此,我们绝不会只坚持单一美元政策。杂项

And, again, our usual caveat: macro-economics is a tough game in which few people, Charlie and I included, have demonstrated skill. We may well turn out to be wrong in our currency judgments. (Indeed, the fact that so many pundits now predict weakness for the dollar makes us uneasy.) If so, our mistake will be very public. The irony is that if we chose the opposite course, leaving all of Berkshire’s assets in dollars even as they declined significantly in value, no one would notice our mistake. John Maynard Keynes said in his masterful The General Theory: “Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.” (Or, to put it in less elegant terms, lemmings as a class may be derided but never does an individual lemming get criticized.) From a reputational standpoint, Charlie and I run a clear risk with our foreign-exchange commitment. But we believe in managing Berkshire as if we owned 100% of it ourselves. And, were that the case, we would not be following a dollar-only policy. Miscellaneous •

去年我告诉过你们,田纳西大学一群金融系学生在我们以 17 亿美元收购克莱顿住宅公司的交易中发挥了关键作用。早前,他们的教授阿尔·奥克西耶带他们来到奥马哈——他每年都会带一个班来——参观内布拉斯加家具城和博尔斯海姆珠宝,在戈拉特餐厅用餐,并在基威特广场跟我进行了一场问答交流。这些访客,和那些来参加我们股东大会的人一样,离开时都对这座城市及其友善的居民印象深刻。如今,其他高校也纷纷前来拜访。本学年,我们将迎来来自芝加哥大学、达特茅斯学院(塔克商学院)、特拉华州立大学、佛罗里达州立大学、印第安纳大学、爱荷华大学、爱荷华州立大学、马里兰大学、内布拉斯加大学、西北拿撒勒大学、宾夕法尼亚大学(沃顿商学院)、斯坦福大学、田纳西大学、德克萨斯大学、德克萨斯农工大学、多伦多大学(罗特曼商学院)、犹他大学和尤宁学院的访问班级,人数从 30 人到 100 人不等。大多数学生是工商管理硕士(MBA)候选人,我对他们的素质印象深刻。他们对商业和投资兴趣浓厚,但从他们提出的问题来看,他们心中所想的远不止赚钱那么简单。每次与他们见面后,我都感觉很好。

Last year I told you about a group of University of Tennessee finance students who played a key role in our $1.7 billion acquisition of Clayton Homes. Earlier, they had been brought to Omaha by their professor, Al Auxier – he brings a class every year – to tour Nebraska Furniture Mart and Borsheim’s, eat at Gorat’s and have a Q&A session with me at Kiewit Plaza. These visitors, like those who come for our annual meeting, leave impressed by both the city and its friendly residents. Other colleges and universities have now come calling. This school year we will have visiting classes, ranging in size from 30 to 100 students, from Chicago, Dartmouth (Tuck), Delaware State, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Maryland, Nebraska, Northwest Nazarene, Pennsylvania (Wharton), Stanford, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Toronto (Rotman), Union and Utah. Most of the students are MBA candidates, and I’ve been impressed by their quality. They are keenly interested in business and investments, but their questions indicate that they also have more on their minds than simply making money. I always feel good after meeting them.

21
21

在我们的会议上,我会给新加入的人讲田纳西州团队发现克莱顿住宅的故事。我这么做,是出于一位农夫走进鸡舍,手里拿着一枚鸵鸟蛋,告诫鸡群时的那种精神:“姑娘们,我不是想抱怨,但这只是竞争对手所做的一小部分而已。”迄今为止,我们的新侦察员还没有带来什么交易。但他们的使命已经明确告知他们了。•

At our sessions, I tell the newcomers the story of the Tennessee group and its spotting of Clayton Homes. I do this in the spirit of the farmer who enters his hen house with an ostrich egg and admonishes the flock: “I don’t like to complain, girls, but this is just a small sample of what the competition is doing.” To date, our new scouts have not brought us deals. But their mission in life has been made clear to them. •

你们需要知道一条会计准则,它会让我们的财务报表呈现“今天亏损、明天获利”的假象,略显扭曲。伯克希尔从个人和公司手中购买人寿保险单,这些人原本会把保单退保换取现金。作为保单的新持有人,我们支付到期的保费,最终在原持有人去世时领取保单的面值。我们购买保单时,原投保人通常身体健康。尽管如此,我们支付的价格总是远高于保单的现金退保价值(简称 CSV)。有时原投保人已经借用了现金退保价值来支付保费,这种情况下剩余的现金退保价值微乎其微,而我们支付的购买价格将是原投保人若退保所能获得金额的许多倍。按照会计准则,我们必须立即将购买保单时支付超出现金退保价值的部分,作为已实现的资本损失入账。每年,我们还需为维持保单效力所支付的保费超出现金退保价值增加额的部分,计提额外费用。但显然,我们不认为这些账面费用代表经济损失。如果真是这样,我们就不会购买这些保单。2004 年,我们因购买保单(以及维持保单所需的保费支付)录得净“损失”共计 2.07 亿美元,这部分已从损益表中已实现的投资收益中扣除(包含在第 17 页表格的“其他”项中)。未来当这些保单的收益到账时,我们将把超出当时现金退保价值的部分记为已实现的投资收益。

You should be aware of an accounting rule that mildly distorts our financial statements in a paintoday, gain-tomorrow manner. Berkshire purchases life insurance policies from individuals and corporations who would otherwise surrender them for cash. As the new holder of the policies, we pay any premiums that become due and ultimately – when the original holder dies – collect the face value of the policies. The original policyholder is usually in good health when we purchase the policy. Still, the price we pay for it is always well above its cash surrender value (“CSV”). Sometimes the original policyholder has borrowed against the CSV to make premium payments. In that case, the remaining CSV will be tiny and our purchase price will be a large multiple of what the original policyholder would have received, had he cashed out by surrendering it. Under accounting rules, we must immediately charge as a realized capital loss the excess over CSV that we pay upon purchasing the policy. We also must make additional charges each year for the amount by which the premium we pay to keep the policy in force exceeds the increase in CSV. But obviously, we don’t think these bookkeeping charges represent economic losses. If we did, we wouldn’t buy the policies. During 2004, we recorded net “losses” from the purchase of policies (and from the premium payments required to maintain them) totaling $207 million, which was charged against realized investment gains in our earnings statement (included in “other” in the table on page 17). When the proceeds from these policies are received in the future, we will record as realized investment gain the excess over the then-CSV.

泡沫破裂后实施的两项治理改革,对伯克希尔尤为有益,我自责未能在多年前就加以推行。第一项改革要求,董事会定期在首席执行官不在场的情况下召开会议。我曾担任过 19 家公司的董事,在许多场合,若采取此程序,那些存疑的计划本可得到更深入的审视。少数情况下,必要的首席执行官更迭也会更及时。此程序无任何弊端,却可能带来诸多益处。第二项改革涉及“举报热线”,该机制允许员工向我和董事会审计委员会传达信息,无需担心报复。伯克希尔极端的分权结构,使此系统对我和委员会而言都格外宝贵。(在伯克希尔如今 18 万员工构成的庞大“城市”中,总部不可能留意到每一只坠落的麻雀。)我们收到的大多投诉,不过是“邻座同事有口臭”之类,但偶尔我也能借此发现子公司的重要问题,否则这些情况我恐怕无从知晓。所反映的问题通常不属于审计可察觉的范畴,而是涉及人事与经营实践。若几十年前我便设立举报热线,今日的伯克希尔本可更具价值。

Two post-bubble governance reforms have been particularly useful at Berkshire, and I fault myself for not putting them in place many years ago. The first involves regular meetings of directors without the CEO present. I’ve sat on 19 boards, and on many occasions this process would have led to dubious plans being examined more thoroughly. In a few cases, CEO changes that were needed would also have been made more promptly. There is no downside to this process, and there are many possible benefits. The second reform concerns the “whistleblower line,” an arrangement through which employees can send information to me and the board’s audit committee without fear of reprisal. Berkshire’s extreme decentralization makes this system particularly valuable both to me and the committee. (In a sprawling “city” of 180,000 – Berkshire’s current employee count – not every sparrow that falls will be noticed at headquarters.) Most of the complaints we have received are of “the guy next to me has bad breath” variety, but on occasion I have learned of important problems at our subsidiaries that I otherwise would have missed. The issues raised are usually not of a type discoverable by audit, but relate instead to personnel and business practices. Berkshire would be more valuable today if I had put in a whistleblower line decades ago.

查理和我非常赞同股东们能以所有者身份思考和行动的想法。有时,这需要他们积极主动。在这个领域,大型机构股东应当率先垂范。然而,迄今为止,机构们的行动并未令人叹服。通常,他们纠缠于细枝末节,忽略了真正重要的三个问题。第一,公司是否选对了首席执行官?第二,他们的薪酬是否超出了合理范围?第三,提议的并购更可能提升还是削弱每股价值?

Charlie and I love the idea of shareholders thinking and behaving like owners. Sometimes that requires them to be pro-active. And in this arena large institutional owners should lead the way. So far, however, the moves made by institutions have been less than awe-inspiring. Usually, they’ve focused on minutiae and ignored the three questions that truly count. First, does the company have the right CEO? Second, is he/she overreaching in terms of compensation? Third, are proposed acquisitions more likely to create or destroy per-share value?

22
22

在这样的问题上,首席执行官的利益很可能与股东的利益不一致。而且,董事们有时缺乏足够的知识或魄力去否决首席执行官。因此,大股东们聚焦这三个问题并在必要时发声,至关重要。然而,许多大股东只是对当下热议的话题采取一种“照单打勾”式的态度。去年,我就亲身领教了这种态度带来的评判。几家机构股东及其顾问认定,我作为可口可乐董事缺乏“独立性”。一个团体想把我赶出董事会,另一个团体则只想让我退出审计委员会。我的第一反应是暗地里资助后一个团体。我真不明白,为什么有人会想进审计委员会。但既然董事必须被分配到某个委员会,而又没有首席执行官愿意让我进薪酬委员会,所以我常常被分配到审计委员会。结果,反对我的机构股东没能得逞,我再次当选进入审计委员会。(我强忍着没去要求重新计票。)一些机构质疑我的“独立性”,理由之一是麦克莱恩公司和冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)购买了大量的可口可乐产品。(他们是想让我们偏好百事吗?)但韦氏词典对“独立”的定义是“不受他人控制”。我实在想不通,怎么会有人认为我们购买可口可乐会“控制”我的决策,而与之抗衡的,是伯克希尔持有的 80 亿美元可口可乐股票的利益。只要我还有一点理性,基本的算术就能说明,我的心和思想属于可口可乐的股东,而非其管理层。我忍不住要提一句,耶稣对独立性校准的理解,远比那些抗议的机构股东要透彻。他在《马太福音》6 章 21 节说:“因为你的财宝在哪里,你的心也在哪里。”即使对机构投资者而言,80 亿美元也算得上是“财宝”,远远超过伯克希尔与可口可乐日常交易可能赚到的任何利润。以圣经的标准衡量,伯克希尔的董事会堪称典范:(a)每位董事都是持有至少 400 万美元股票的家族成员;(b)这些股票没有一股是通过期权或赠予从伯克希尔获得的;(c)董事们从公司获得的委员会、咨询或董事会费用,只占其年收入的极小部分;(d)虽然我们有标准的公司赔偿协议,但我们不为董事购买责任险。在伯克希尔,董事们与股东走的是同一条路。

On such questions, the interests of the CEO may well differ from those of the shareholders. Directors, moreover, sometimes lack the knowledge or gumption to overrule the CEO. Therefore, it’s vital that large owners focus on these three questions and speak up when necessary. Instead many simply follow a “checklist” approach to the issue du jour. Last year I was on the receiving end of a judgment reached in that manner. Several institutional shareholders and their advisors decided I lacked “independence” in my role as a director of Coca-Cola. One group wanted me removed from the board and another simply wanted me booted from the audit committee. My first impulse was to secretly fund the group behind the second idea. Why anyone would wish to be on an audit committee is beyond me. But since directors must be assigned to one committee or another, and since no CEO wants me on his compensation committee, it’s often been my lot to get an audit committee assignment. As it turned out, the institutions that opposed me failed and I was re-elected to the audit job. (I fought off the urge to ask for a recount.) Some institutions questioned my “independence” because, among other things, McLane and Dairy Queen buy lots of Coke products. (Do they want us to favor Pepsi?) But independence is defined in Webster’s as “not subject to control by others.” I’m puzzled how anyone could conclude that our Coke purchases would “control” my decision-making when the counterweight is the wellbeing of $8 billion of Coke stock held by Berkshire. Assuming I’m even marginally rational, elementary arithmetic should make it clear that my heart and mind belong to the owners of Coke, not to its management. I can’t resist mentioning that Jesus understood the calibration of independence far more clearly than do the protesting institutions. In Matthew 6:21 He observed: “For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.” Even to an institutional investor, $8 billion should qualify as “treasure” that dwarfs any profits Berkshire might earn on its routine transactions with Coke. Measured by the biblical standard, the Berkshire board is a model: (a) every director is a member of a family owning at least $4 million of stock; (b) none of these shares were acquired from Berkshire via options or grants; (c) no directors receive committee, consulting or board fees from the company that are more than a tiny portion of their annual income; and (d) although we have a standard corporate indemnity arrangement, we carry no liability insurance for directors. At Berkshire, board members travel the same road as shareholders.

****

****

查理和我见过无数行为,正好印证了圣经里那句关于“财宝”的话。我们俩在董事会里见过的世面不少,依我们看,最不独立的董事,往往是那些年收入里有很大一块靠董事袍金过日子的人——他们还盼着被推荐到别的董事会去,好把这份收入再往上抬一抬。可偏偏就是这些人,最常被贴上“独立董事”的标签。这类董事里,多数是体面人,活儿也干得漂亮。但要说他们不会动心去阻挠那些威胁到自己饭碗的举动,那就不是人了。有些人可能真就顺着这心思滑下去了。咱们拿个靠旁证说话的实例来看看。我亲眼见过一桩近期的收购提议——不是伯克希尔的事——管理层力推,投行背书,开的价格比股票过去几年(乃至现在)的成交价还高,就等着往前推。同时,好几位董事都赞成这笔交易,还想把它拿到股东面前去表决。

Charlie and I have seen much behavior confirming the Bible’s “treasure” point. In our view, based on our considerable boardroom experience, the least independent directors are likely to be those who receive an important fraction of their annual income from the fees they receive for board service (and who hope as well to be recommended for election to other boards and thereby to boost their income further). Yet these are the very board members most often classed as “independent.” Most directors of this type are decent people and do a first-class job. But they wouldn’t be human if they weren’t tempted to thwart actions that would threaten their livelihood. Some may go on to succumb to such temptations. Let’s look at an example based upon circumstantial evidence. I have first-hand knowledge of a recent acquisition proposal (not from Berkshire) that was favored by management, blessed by the company’s investment banker and slated to go forward at a price above the level at which the stock had sold for some years (or now sells for). In addition, a number of directors favored the transaction and wanted it proposed to shareholders.

23
23

然而,他们中的几位同仁,每人每年从董事会及委员会职务中领取约 10 万美元酬劳,却否决了这一提案,意味着股东们永远无缘知晓这项数十亿美元的收购要约。非管理董事除公司赠予的股份外,几乎不持有其他股票。他们近年来的公开市场买入也微乎其微,即便股价远低于提案中的收购价。换言之,这些董事不愿让股东看到 X 这个报价,尽管他们自己一直拒绝以 X 的零头价格自购股票。我不知道是哪几位董事反对让股东看到这份要约。但我确实知道,对于某些被冠以“独立”之名的董事而言,10 万美元是他们年收入的重要一块,显然符合《马太福音》6:21 对“财宝”的定义。若交易成行,这些酬劳将就此终结。无论是股东还是我,都永远不会知道反对者的真实动机。事实上,连他们自己恐怕也未必清楚,因为私利总会模糊自省的视线。不过,有一件事我们确实清楚:就在否决这笔交易的同一次会议上,董事会给自己大幅提高了董事酬劳。•

Several of their brethren, however, each of whom received board and committee fees totaling about $100,000 annually, scuttled the proposal, which meant that shareholders never learned of this multi-billion offer. Non-management directors owned little stock except for shares they had received from the company. Their open-market purchases in recent years had meanwhile been nominal, even though the stock had sold far below the acquisition price proposed. In other words, these directors didn’t want the shareholders to be offered X even though they had consistently declined the opportunity to buy stock for their own account at a fraction of X. I don’t know which directors opposed letting shareholders see the offer. But I do know that $100,000 is an important portion of the annual income of some of those deemed “independent,” clearly meeting the Matthew 6:21 definition of “treasure.” If the deal had gone through, these fees would have ended. Neither the shareholders nor I will ever know what motivated the dissenters. Indeed they themselves will not likely know, given that self-interest inevitably blurs introspection. We do know one thing, though: At the same meeting at which the deal was rejected, the board voted itself a significant increase in directors’ fees. •

既然说到利益本身,我们不妨再看看首席执行官们至今仍可用来夸大利润的最重要会计手段:不将股票期权计入费用。这一荒谬做法得以延续,国会中不少议员难辞其咎,他们无视四大会计师事务所所有审计师、财务会计准则委员会所有成员以及几乎全体投资专业人士提出的反对意见。随信附上我为《华盛顿邮报》撰写的一篇评论文章,讲的是一项去年夏天以 312 票对 111 票在众议院通过、令人瞠目结舌的法案。多亏参议员理查德·谢尔比,参议院没有认可众议院的这项愚蠢决定。而且,值得称赞的是,美国证券交易委员会主席比尔·唐纳森,一位以投资者为导向的领导者,顶住了巨大的政治压力——这些压力来自那些挥舞着支票、先是在 1993 年就期权会计问题向国会施压、去年又故伎重演的首席执行官们。由于试图混淆股票期权问题的努力仍在继续,有必要指出,没有人——无论是财务会计准则委员会、广大投资者,还是我本人——主张以任何方式限制期权的使用。事实上,我在伯克希尔的继任者很可能有相当一部分薪酬是期权形式,但会是合理设计的期权,体现在:1)行权价格适当;2)价格上调反映留存收益;3)禁止他通过期权购入的股票迅速脱手。我们乐见那些能激励管理层的安排,无论是现金奖金还是期权。如果一家公司确实因发行期权而获得价值,我们认为没有理由因为记录其成本就减少使用。简单的事实是,某些首席执行官心知肚明,如果期权计入费用,他们的薪酬确定方式会合理得多。他们还担心,如果采用现实的会计方法,自家股票售价会更低,这意味着他们在市场上抛售个人持股时获利会减少。对这些首席执行官来说,这些不愉快的前景是他们必须用尽手头一切资源去对抗的命运——尽管他们用来对抗的资金通常不属于自己,而是由股东提供的。期权费用化定于 6 月 15 日强制实施。因此,从现在到那时,你可以预期会有更激烈的阻挠或削弱这一规则的努力。请让你的众议员和参议员了解你对这个问题的看法。

While we are on the subject of self-interest, let’s turn again to the most important accounting mechanism still available to CEOs who wish to overstate earnings: the non-expensing of stock options. The accomplices in perpetuating this absurdity have been many members of Congress who have defied the arguments put forth by all Big Four auditors, all members of the Financial Accounting Standards Board and virtually all investment professionals. I’m enclosing an op-ed piece I wrote for The Washington Post describing a truly breathtaking bill that was passed 312-111 by the House last summer. Thanks to Senator Richard Shelby, the Senate didn’t ratify the House’s foolishness. And, to his great credit, Bill Donaldson, the investorminded Chairman of the SEC, has stood firm against massive political pressure, generated by the check-waving CEOs who first muscled Congress in 1993 about the issue of option accounting and then repeated the tactic last year. Because the attempts to obfuscate the stock-option issue continue, it’s worth pointing out that no one – neither the FASB, nor investors generally, nor I – are talking about restricting the use of options in any way. Indeed, my successor at Berkshire may well receive much of his pay via options, albeit logically-structured ones in respect to 1) an appropriate strike price, 2) an escalation in price that reflects the retention of earnings, and 3) a ban on his quickly disposing of any shares purchased through options. We cheer arrangements that motivate managers, whether these be cash bonuses or options. And if a company is truly receiving value for the options it issues, we see no reason why recording their cost should cut down on their use. The simple fact is that certain CEOs know their own compensation would be far more rationally determined if options were expensed. They also suspect that their stock would sell at a lower price if realistic accounting were employed, meaning that they would reap less in the market when they unloaded their personal holdings. To these CEOs such unpleasant prospects are a fate to be fought with all the resources they have at hand – even though the funds they use in that fight normally don’t belong to them, but are instead put up by their shareholders. Option-expensing is scheduled to become mandatory on June 15th. You can therefore expect intensified efforts to stall or emasculate this rule between now and then. Let your Congressman and Senators know what you think on this issue.

24
24

股东大会

今年的股东大会有两处变动。第一,我们将会议安排在四月的最后一个星期六(4 月 30 日),而不是往常的五月第一个星期六。今年母亲节落在 5 月 8 日,若按原定时间,让博尔斯海姆珠宝和高瑞特餐厅的员工在那特殊日子还要招待我们,实在过意不去——所以我们将一切提前一周。明年我们会恢复常规时间,即 2006 年 5 月 6 日举行会议。此外,我们调整了 4 月 30 日会议当天的活动顺序。一如既往,早上 7 点奎斯特中心开门,8 点 30 分播放电影。但到 9 点 30 分,我们将直接进入问答环节,这一环节(中间在奎斯特中心摊位吃个午饭)将持续到下午 3 点。稍作休息后,查理和我在 3 点 15 分召开正式股东大会。我们做此调整,是因为去年有股东抱怨,两位发言者提出的议题对大多数听众而言没什么兴趣,却占用了不少时间——他们无疑很享受对着约 1.95 万名无处可逃的听众讲话的机会。按新流程,那些想听完所有内容的股东可以留下来参加正式会议,不想听的可以离开——或者更好,去购物。毗邻会议区的巨大展厅提供了充裕的购物机会。去年,伯克希尔的“佛罗·齐格菲尔德”凯利·穆彻莫办了一场盛大的购物狂欢,她说那不过是今年活动的前奏。(凯利,我很高兴地告诉大家,将在十月份结婚。我会把她交给新郎,还建议她干脆把婚礼办在股东大会上,创造点历史。但她不干,因为查理坚持要当戒童。)我们将再次展出占地 2100 平方英尺的克莱顿住宅样板间(配有阿克米砖、肖氏地毯、约翰斯·曼维尔保温材料、米泰克紧固件、凯尔弗瑞遮阳篷和 NFM 家具)。进去逛逛,最好直接买下。GEICO 会设展台,由来自全国各地的顶级顾问坐镇,随时为你提供车险报价。多数情况下,GEICO 能给你股东专属折扣(通常为 8%)。我们开展业务的 50 个州中,有 45 个允许这项特别优惠。带上你现有保险的详细资料,看看我们能否帮你省钱。周六在奥马哈机场,我们会照例展示一批 NetJets 公务航空的飞机,供你参观。到奎斯特中心的 NetJets 展台了解一下如何参观这些飞机。坐大巴来奥马哈,开着新飞机走。去年,书虫书店卖伯克希尔相关书籍生意红火,展出 18 种书,卖了 2920 本,收入 6.1 万美元。因为我们不收书店租金(我大概心软了),它给股东打八折。今年我请书虫书店加进格雷厄姆·艾利森的《核恐怖主义:最终可预防的灾难》,关心国家安全的人必读。此外,书店将首发《穷查理宝典》,由彼得·考夫曼编撰。学者们争论查理是不是本·富兰克林转世已太久,这本书该能定论了。随本报告附上的委托书材料中有附件,说明如何获取入场凭证,以便参加会议及其他活动。至于机票、酒店和租车,我们再次签约美国运通(800-799-6634)为你提供特别协助。他们每年都干得很出色,我在此感谢他们。在内布拉斯加家具城,位于 72 街道奇街和太平洋街之间占地 77 英亩的地段,我们将再次推出“伯克希尔周末”特价。八年前我们在 NFM 首办这一特别活动,“周末”期间的销售额从 1997 年的 530 万美元增至 2004 年的 2510 万美元(增长 45%)。

The Annual Meeting There are two changes this year concerning the annual meeting. First, we have scheduled the meeting for the last Saturday in April (the 30th), rather than the usual first Saturday in May. This year Mother’s Day falls on May 8, and it would be unfair to ask the employees of Borsheim’s and Gorat’s to take care of us at that special time – so we’ve moved everything up a week. Next year we’ll return to our regular timing, holding the meeting on May 6, 2006. Additionally, we are changing the sequence of events on meeting day, April 30. Just as always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m. and the movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30, however, we will go directly to the question and answer period, which (allowing for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:00. Then, after a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:15. We have made this change because a number of shareholders complained last year about the time consumed by two speakers who advocated proposals of limited interest to the majority of the audience – and who were no doubt relishing their chance to talk to a captive group of about 19,500. With our new procedure, those shareholders who wish to hear it all can stick around for the formal meeting and those who don’t can leave – or better yet shop. There will be plenty of opportunity for that pastime in the vast exhibition hall that adjoins the meeting area. Kelly Muchemore, the Flo Ziegfeld of Berkshire, put on a magnificent shopping extravaganza last year, and she says that was just a warm-up for this year. (Kelly, I am delighted to report, is getting married in October. I’m giving her away and suggested that she make a little history by holding the wedding at the annual meeting. She balked, however, when Charlie insisted that he be the ringbearer.) Again we will showcase a 2,100 square foot Clayton home (featuring Acme brick, Shaw carpet, Johns Manville insulation, MiTek fasteners, Carefree awnings and NFM furniture). Take a tour through the home. Better yet, buy it. GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 45 of the 50 jurisdictions in which we operate. Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets® available for your inspection. Stop by the NetJets booth at the Qwest to learn about viewing these planes. Come to Omaha by bus; leave in your new plane. The Bookworm shop did a terrific business last year selling Berkshire-related books. Displaying 18 titles, they sold 2,920 copies for $61,000. Since we charge the shop no rent (I must be getting soft), it gives shareholders a 20% discount. This year I’ve asked The Bookworm to add Graham Allison’s Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, a must-read for those concerned with the safety of our country. In addition, the shop will premiere Poor Charlie’s Almanack, a book compiled by Peter Kaufman. Scholars have for too long debated whether Charlie is the reincarnation of Ben Franklin. This book should settle the question. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. They do a terrific job for us each year, and I thank them for it. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” pricing. We initiated this special event at NFM eight years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $25.1 million in 2004 (up 45%

25
25

(较去年同期增长)。每年都刷新纪录,去年周六那天,我们创下了内布拉斯加家具城单日销售最高纪录——610 万美元。要享受折扣,你必须在 4 月 28 日周四至 5 月 2 日周一(含首尾两天)期间购物,并出示参会凭证。这个时段的特别优惠甚至适用于几家知名制造商的产品,这些厂商通常对打折有铁规,但为了我们的股东周末,破例为你通融。我们感谢他们的配合。家具城周一至周六营业时间为上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周日为上午 10 点至下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5 点 30 分至 8 点,我们为股东举办专场活动。我会到场,吃烧烤、喝可口可乐。博尔斯海姆珠宝——除纽约蒂芙尼旗舰店外全国最大的珠宝店——将举办两场股东专场活动。第一场是 4 月 29 日周五下午 6 点至 10 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是主晚会,在 5 月 1 日周日上午 9 点至下午 4 点。周六我们营业至下午 6 点。整个周末博尔斯海姆都会人潮涌动。为方便你安排,股东优惠价从 4 月 25 日周一至 5 月 7 日周六期间有效。那段时间,你只需出示参会凭证或券商对账单表明股东身份即可。博尔斯海姆的毛利率比主要竞争对手低整整 20 个百分点,这还是在股东折扣之前。去年周末销售额比 2003 年增长 73%,创下难以超越的纪录。让我看看你能不能做到。在博尔斯海姆外的帐篷里,两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫将蒙眼同时迎战六人一组的挑战者。此外,我们还请到两位世界顶级桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格,周日下午与股东切磋。他们打算睁着眼——但鲍勃从不理牌,哪怕打全国锦标赛也是如此。戈拉特牛排馆——我最爱的牛排馆——5 月 1 日周日将再次专为伯克希尔股东开放,供应时间为下午 4 点至晚上 10 点。请记住,那天去戈拉特必须预订。想订位,请于 4 月 1 日(不要提前)拨打 402-551-3733。如果周日订满,就试试你在这座城市期间的其他晚上。像我一样点一份三成熟的带骨牛排,外加双份薯饼,提升你美食家的名声。周六下午 4 点至 5 点 30 分,我们将再次为来自北美以外的股东举办特别招待会。每年股东大会都吸引全球各地许多人参加,查理和我希望亲自迎接这些远道而来的朋友。去年我们很高兴见到了 400 多位股东,其中至少 100 位来自澳大利亚。任何来自美国或加拿大以外的股东都将获得特别凭证和参加此活动的说明。

from a year earlier). Every year has set a new record, and on Saturday of last year, we had the largest single-day sales in NFM’s history – $6.1 million. To get the discount, you must make your purchases between Thursday, April 28 and Monday, May 2 inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. we are having a special affair for shareholders only. I’ll be there, eating barbeque and drinking Coke. Borsheim’s – the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany’s Manhattan store – will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, April 29. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Sunday, May 1. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. We will have huge crowds at Borsheim’s throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 25 through Saturday, May 7. During that period, just identify yourself as a shareholder through your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement. Borsheim’s operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, even before the shareholders’ discount. Last year, business over the weekend increased 73% from 2003, setting a record that will be tough to beat. Show me it can be done. In a tent outside of Borsheim’s, Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers in groups of six – blindfolded. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. They plan to keep their eyes open – but Bob never sorts his cards, even when playing for a national championship. Gorat’s – my favorite steakhouse – will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 1, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that to come to Gorat’s on that day, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1 (but not before). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat’s on one of the other evenings you will be in town. Enhance your reputation as an epicure by ordering, as I do, a rare T-bone with a double helping of hash browns. We will again have a special reception from 4:00 to 5:30 on Saturday afternoon for shareholders who have come from outside of North America. Every year our meeting draws many people from around the globe, and Charlie and I want to be sure we personally greet those who have come so far. Last year we enjoyed meeting more than 400 of you including at least 100 from Australia. Any shareholder who comes from other than the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending this function.

****

****

查理和我很幸运。我们做着热爱的工作,每天在无数方面得到能干又快乐的同事们的帮助。难怪我们跳着踢踏舞去上班。但对我们来说,最开心的事莫过于在伯克希尔的股东大会上与我们的股东合伙人相聚。所以,4 月 30 日请来 Qwest 中心,参加我们的资本家的伍德斯托克盛会吧。

Charlie and I are lucky. We have jobs that we love and are helped every day in a myriad of ways by talented and cheerful associates. No wonder we tap-dance to work. But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on April 30th at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists.

February 28, 2005

February 28, 2005

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

26
26