2009 年致股东信
伯克希尔公司业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数
Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500
| 伯克希尔每股账面价值变动 | 标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化 | 相对结果 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 年度 | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (11.7) | 32.0 |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 30.9 | (19.9) |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | (8.4) | 24.6 |
| 1970 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 18.9 | 2.8 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (14.8) | 19.5 |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (26.4) | 31.9 |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 37.2 | (15.3) |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 23.6 | 35.7 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | (7.4) | 39.3 |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 17.6 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 17.5 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.3 | (13.0) |
| 1981 | 31.4 | (5.0) | 36.4 |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 22.4 | 9.9 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 31.6 | 16.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 7.5 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 14.4 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 31.7 | 12.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (3.1) | 10.5 |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 37.6 | 5.5 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 23.0 | 8.8 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 33.4 | .7 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 28.6 | 19.7 |
| 1999 | .5 | 21.0 | (20.5) |
| 2000 | 6.5 | (9.1) | 15.6 |
| 2001 | (6.2) | (11.9) | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (22.1) | 32.1 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 28.7 | (7.7) |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 10.9 | (.4) |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 2008 | (9.6) | (37.0) | 27.4 |
| 2009 | 19.8 | 26.5 | (6.7) |
| 复合年化收益率 – 1965-2009 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0 |
| 整体收益——1964-2009 | 434,057% | 5,430% |
| in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire | Annual Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends Included | Relative Results | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (11.7) | 32.0 |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 30.9 | (19.9) |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | (8.4) | 24.6 |
| 1970 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 18.9 | 2.8 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (14.8) | 19.5 |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (26.4) | 31.9 |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 37.2 | (15.3) |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 23.6 | 35.7 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | (7.4) | 39.3 |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 17.6 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 17.5 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.3 | (13.0) |
| 1981 | 31.4 | (5.0) | 36.4 |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 22.4 | 9.9 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 31.6 | 16.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 7.5 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 14.4 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 31.7 | 12.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (3.1) | 10.5 |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 37.6 | 5.5 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 23.0 | 8.8 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 33.4 | .7 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 28.6 | 19.7 |
| 1999 | .5 | 21.0 | (20.5) |
| 2000 | 6.5 | (9.1) | 15.6 |
| 2001 | (6.2) | (11.9) | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (22.1) | 32.1 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 28.7 | (7.7) |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 10.9 | (.4) |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 2008 | (9.6) | (37.0) | 27.4 |
| 2009 | 19.8 | 26.5 | (6.7) |
| Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2009 | 20.3% | 9.3% | 11.0 |
| Overall Gain – 1964-2009 | 434,057% | 5,430% |
注:数据按日历年度列示,仅以下例外:1965 年和 1966 年,截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年,截至 12 月 31 日,共 15 个月。自 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司对所持权益证券按市值入账,而此前的规定是成本与市价孰低法。本表中,伯克希尔截至 1978 年的数据已按新规追溯调整;其余所有方面均按最初报告的数字计算。标普 500 指数的数字为税前,伯克希尔的数字为税后。假如一家像伯克希尔这样的公司,仅仅持有标普 500 指数并计提相应的税款,那么在指数实现正回报的年份,它的业绩会落后于标普 500,而在指数出现负回报的年份,则会跑赢标普 500。长年累月,税负成本会导致累计落后的幅度相当可观。
Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
2009 年,我们的净资产增加 218 亿美元,使得 A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值均增长 19.8%。在过去 45 年间(即现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元增长到 84,487 美元,年复合增长率 20.3%。* 伯克希尔近期收购了伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路(BNSF),在原有约 50 万名股东的基础上,又增添了至少 65,000 名新股东。对我和我的长期搭档查理·芒格来说,至关重要的一点是,所有股东都能理解伯克希尔的运营、目标、局限和文化。因此,我们在每份年报中都会重申指导我们的经济原则。今年,这些原则刊登在第 89 至 94 页,我恳请各位——尤其是新加入的股东——读一读。几十年来,伯克希尔一直恪守这些原则,在我离开之后也仍将继续。在致股东信中,我们还会回顾公司业务的一些基本面,既为 BNSF 的新股东们开一堂入门课,也为伯克希尔的老股东们做一次重温。
Our gain in net worth during 2009 was $21.8 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 19.8%. Over the last 45 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $84,487, a rate of 20.3% compounded annually.* Berkshire’s recent acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) has added at least 65,000 shareholders to the 500,000 or so already on our books. It’s important to Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and me that all of our owners understand Berkshire’s operations, goals, limitations and culture. In each annual report, consequently, we restate the economic principles that guide us. This year these principles appear on pages 89-94 and I urge all of you – but particularly our new shareholders – to read them. Berkshire has adhered to these principles for decades and will continue to do so long after I’m gone. In this letter we will also review some of the basics of our business, hoping to provide both a freshman orientation session for our BNSF newcomers and a refresher course for Berkshire veterans.
我们如何衡量自己
How We Measure Ourselves
我们对管理层业绩的衡量标准,显示在对页上。从一开始,查理和我就认定,必须有一套理性且不可动摇的标准来衡量我们做成了什么——又没做成什么。这能防止我们落入那种诱惑:先看到业绩之箭落在何处,再围着落点画靶心。选择标普 500 指数作为我们的对标基准,是个容易的决定,因为我们的股东几乎无需成本,仅持有一只指数基金就能追平其表现。如果只是复制这一结果,股东凭什么要付钱给我们?对我们来说,更难的决定是如何衡量伯克希尔相对于标普 500 的进展。有充分的理由支持直接用我们股价的变动来衡量,事实上,拉长时间来看,这是最好的检验方式。但年复一年的市场价格可能极为无序。即便是长达十年的评估,也可能因衡量期初或期末愚蠢的高价或低价而严重扭曲。微软的史蒂夫·鲍尔默和通用电气的杰夫·伊梅尔特对这一问题深有体会,他们接过管理棒时,各自公司的股价正处于令人头晕目眩的高位,他们至今为此所苦。衡量我们每一年进展的理想标准,应当是伯克希尔每股内在价值的变化。遗憾的是,这一数值根本无法接近精确地计算出来,因此我们退而求其次,用一个粗略的代理指标:每股账面价值。依赖这一尺度有其弊端,我们在第 92 页和第 93 页作了讨论。此外,大多数公司的账面价值低于其内在价值,伯克希尔无疑也是如此。总体而言,我们旗下业务的价值,远高于它们在账面上的入账价值。而且,在我们至关重要的保险业务上,差距更是巨大。即便如此,查理和我相信,账面价值——尽管有所低估——仍是追踪内在价值变化最有用的工具。以此衡量,如本信开篇所言,自 1965 财年初以来,我们的账面价值年复合增长率为 20.3%。*本报告中所有每股数据均对应伯克希尔 A 股。B 股数据为 A 股所示数值的 1/1500。
Our metrics for evaluating our managerial performance are displayed on the facing page. From the start, Charlie and I have believed in having a rational and unbending standard for measuring what we have – or have not – accomplished. That keeps us from the temptation of seeing where the arrow of performance lands and then painting the bull’s eye around it. Selecting the S&P 500 as our bogey was an easy choice because our shareholders, at virtually no cost, can match its performance by holding an index fund. Why should they pay us for merely duplicating that result? A more difficult decision for us was how to measure the progress of Berkshire versus the S&P. There are good arguments for simply using the change in our stock price. Over an extended period of time, in fact, that is the best test. But year-to-year market prices can be extraordinarily erratic. Even evaluations covering as long as a decade can be greatly distorted by foolishly high or low prices at the beginning or end of the measurement period. Steve Ballmer, of Microsoft, and Jeff Immelt, of GE, can tell you about that problem, suffering as they do from the nosebleed prices at which their stocks traded when they were handed the managerial baton. The ideal standard for measuring our yearly progress would be the change in Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value. Alas, that value cannot be calculated with anything close to precision, so we instead use a crude proxy for it: per-share book value. Relying on this yardstick has its shortcomings, which we discuss on pages 92 and 93. Additionally, book value at most companies understates intrinsic value, and that is certainly the case at Berkshire. In aggregate, our businesses are worth considerably more than the values at which they are carried on our books. In our all-important insurance business, moreover, the difference is huge. Even so, Charlie and I believe that our book value – understated though it is – supplies the most useful tracking device for changes in intrinsic value. By this measurement, as the opening paragraph of this letter states, our book value since the start of fiscal 1965 has grown at a rate of 20.3% compounded annually. *All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.
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有一点应当说明:倘若当初我们改用市场价格作为标尺,伯克希尔的成绩会更好看——从 1965 财年算起,年复合增长率达到 22%。出人意料的是,年复利率这点微小差异,在整整 45 年里竟带来了 801,516% 的市值增长,而账面价值的增长为 434,057%(见第 2 页)。市值表现之所以更亮眼,是因为 1965 年伯克希尔的股价相对其低盈利的纺织资产账面价值有合理折价,而如今伯克希尔的股价,通常相对其一流企业的账面价值有溢价。归结起来,第 2 页的表格传递了三层信息:两层正面,一层极其负面。其一,从 1965—1969 年到 2005—2009 年,共有 41 个这样的五年期,我们的账面价值增幅无一例外都跑赢了标普。其二,虽然在某些上涨年份我们落后于标普,但在标普收负的那 11 个年份里,我们始终跑赢了它。换句话说,我们的防守强于进攻,这一点很可能会延续下去。最大的负面因素是:随着体量膨胀,我们的业绩优势已大幅收窄,而这一令人不快的趋势必将持续。诚然,伯克希尔坐拥众多优秀企业和一批真正杰出的经理人,他们身处一种罕见的企业文化之中,才华得以充分施展。查理和我相信,这些因素会长期带来优于平均水平的回报。但巨额资金本身就是一只沉重的锚,我们未来的优势即便存在,也只会是历史优势的一小部分。
We should note that had we instead chosen market prices as our yardstick, Berkshire’s results would look better, showing a gain since the start of fiscal 1965 of 22% compounded annually. Surprisingly, this modest difference in annual compounding rate leads to an 801,516% market-value gain for the entire 45-year period compared to the book-value gain of 434,057% (shown on page 2). Our market gain is better because in 1965 Berkshire shares sold at an appropriate discount to the book value of its underearning textile assets, whereas today Berkshire shares regularly sell at a premium to the accounting values of its first-class businesses. Summed up, the table on page 2 conveys three messages, two positive and one hugely negative. First, we have never had any five-year period beginning with 1965-69 and ending with 2005-09 – and there have been 41 of these – during which our gain in book value did not exceed the S&P’s gain. Second, though we have lagged the S&P in some years that were positive for the market, we have consistently done better than the S&P in the eleven years during which it delivered negative results. In other words, our defense has been better than our offense, and that’s likely to continue. The big minus is that our performance advantage has shrunk dramatically as our size has grown, an unpleasant trend that is certain to continue. To be sure, Berkshire has many outstanding businesses and a cadre of truly great managers, operating within an unusual corporate culture that lets them maximize their talents. Charlie and I believe these factors will continue to produce better-than-average results over time. But huge sums forge their own anchor and our future advantage, if any, will be a small fraction of our historical edge.
我们不做的事
What We Don’t Do
很久以前,查理就道出过他最大的心愿:“我只想知道我会死在哪里,这样我就永远不会去那个地方。”这句智慧箴言,灵感源于普鲁士伟大的数学家雅可比,他主张“反过来想,总是反过来想”是求解难题的法门。(我还可以报告一下,这套反向思考法在不那么高深的层面同样奏效:把一首乡村歌曲倒着唱一遍,你会很快找回你的车、房子和老婆。)以下是一些例子,展示我们如何在伯克希尔运用查理的思维:
Long ago, Charlie laid out his strongest ambition: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.” That bit of wisdom was inspired by Jacobi, the great Prussian mathematician, who counseled “Invert, always invert” as an aid to solving difficult problems. (I can report as well that this inversion approach works on a less lofty level: Sing a country song in reverse, and you will quickly recover your car, house and wife.) Here are a few examples of how we apply Charlie’s thinking at Berkshire: •
对于那些未来无法判断的企业,无论它们的产品多么激动人心,查理和我都避而远之。过去,不需要任何先见之明,人们也能预见到汽车业(1910 年)、航空业(1930 年)和电视机制造业(1950 年)即将迎来的惊人增长。但那个未来同样包含着竞争格局,它几乎会吞噬所有进入这些行业的公司。即便是幸存者,往往也是血流不止地退场。查理和我能清晰看到一个行业未来将出现的巨大增长,并不代表我们就能判断,当众多竞争者展开争夺时,它的利润率和资本回报率会落到什么水平。在伯克希尔,我们坚持投资那些未来数十年利润前景看来具备合理可预见性的生意。即便如此,我们仍会犯不少错误。
Charlie and I avoid businesses whose futures we can’t evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be. In the past, it required no brilliance for people to foresee the fabulous growth that awaited such industries as autos (in 1910), aircraft (in 1930) and television sets (in 1950). But the future then also included competitive dynamics that would decimate almost all of the companies entering those industries. Even the survivors tended to come away bleeding. Just because Charlie and I can clearly see dramatic growth ahead for an industry does not mean we can judge what its profit margins and returns on capital will be as a host of competitors battle for supremacy. At Berkshire we will stick with businesses whose profit picture for decades to come seems reasonably predictable. Even then, we will make plenty of mistakes.
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我们永远不会让自己变得依赖于陌生人的善意。“大而不倒”不是伯克希尔的退路。相反,我们始终会这样安排自身事务:任何可以想见的现金需求,在我们的流动性面前都微不足道。而且,这份流动性还会通过我们众多而多元的业务所产生的丰厚利润,源源不断地得到补充。2008 年 9 月,当金融体系心脏骤停时,伯克希尔是流动性和资本的供给方,而非乞求者。在危机最危急的关头,我们向商界注入了 155 亿美元,当时,其他企业只能指望联邦政府。其中,90 亿美元用于加固三家备受推崇、此前根基稳固的美国企业的资本——它们刻不容缓地需要我们拿出实实在在的信任票。余下 65 亿美元,则用于履行我们帮助出资收购箭牌(Wrigley)的承诺,这笔交易在其他地方一片恐慌之际,毫不间断地完成了。
We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers. Too-big-to-fail is not a fallback position at Berkshire. Instead, we will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. Moreover, that liquidity will be constantly refreshed by a gusher of earnings from our many and diverse businesses. When the financial system went into cardiac arrest in September 2008, Berkshire was a supplier of liquidity and capital to the system, not a supplicant. At the very peak of the crisis, we poured $15.5 billion into a business world that could otherwise look only to the federal government for help. Of that, $9 billion went to bolster capital at three highly-regarded and previously-secure American businesses that needed – without delay – our tangible vote of confidence. The remaining $6.5 billion satisfied our commitment to help fund the purchase of Wrigley, a deal that was completed without pause while, elsewhere, panic reigned.
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为了维持顶级的财务实力,我们付出了高昂的代价。我们惯常持有的现金等价物资产超过 200 亿美元,目前收益微乎其微。但我们睡得安稳。
We pay a steep price to maintain our premier financial strength. The $20 billion-plus of cashequivalent assets that we customarily hold is earning a pittance at present. But we sleep well. •
我们倾向于放手让旗下众多子公司自主经营,不对它们进行任何程度的监管和盯防。这意味着,我们有时发现管理问题会比较滞后,而且,有些经营和资本决策,如果事前征询过查理和我的意见,我们或许不会同意。然而,我们绝大多数经理人,将我们赋予的独立性运用得极为出色,以一种在大机构中极为少见、无比珍贵的主人翁心态,回报了我们的信任。我们宁愿承受少数错误决策带来的看得见的代价,也不愿承担因僵化的官僚体制导致决策过慢——或根本不做决策——而造成的种种看不见的成本。收购 BNSF 之后,我们现在有大约 257,000 名员工和字面意义上数以百计的不同运营单元。我们希望两者的数量都能进一步增加。但我们绝不会让伯克希尔变成那种被委员会、预算演示和多层管理层级所淹没的僵化庞然大物。相反,我们计划以一系列独立管理的大中型企业的集合体形式来运作,其中绝大多数决策发生在运营层面。查理和我只限于做资本配置、企业风险管控、挑选经理人和设定他们的薪酬。
We tend to let our many subsidiaries operate on their own, without our supervising and monitoring them to any degree. That means we are sometimes late in spotting management problems and that both operating and capital decisions are occasionally made with which Charlie and I would have disagreed had we been consulted. Most of our managers, however, use the independence we grant them magnificently, rewarding our confidence by maintaining an owneroriented attitude that is invaluable and too seldom found in huge organizations. We would rather suffer the visible costs of a few bad decisions than incur the many invisible costs that come from decisions made too slowly – or not at all – because of a stifling bureaucracy. With our acquisition of BNSF, we now have about 257,000 employees and literally hundreds of different operating units. We hope to have many more of each. But we will never allow Berkshire to become some monolith that is overrun with committees, budget presentations and multiple layers of management. Instead, we plan to operate as a collection of separately-managed mediumsized and large businesses, most of whose decision-making occurs at the operating level. Charlie and I will limit ourselves to allocating capital, controlling enterprise risk, choosing managers and setting their compensation.
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我们从不刻意迎合华尔街。那些根据媒体或分析师评论来买卖的投资者,并不适合我们。相反,我们想要的是这样的合伙人:他们之所以加入伯克希尔,是因为希望对自己能看懂的企业进行长期投资,也认同这家企业所奉行的政策。假如查理和我要与几位合伙人共同成立一家小型企业,我们会寻找与我们步调一致的个人,深知共同的目标和共同的命运,会促成所有者与管理者之间一段愉快的商业“婚姻”。即便规模扩大到巨型企业,这个道理也不会改变。为了建立一个志同道合的股东群体,我们努力与所有者直接沟通,并提供有价值的信息。我们的目标是,如果角色互换,我们会想了解什么,就告诉你们什么。此外,我们尽量在周末一早就将季度和年度财务信息发布到网上,从而让你和其他投资者在非交易时段有充足的时间,来消化我们这家多元化企业到底发生了什么。(偶尔,SEC 的申报截止日期会迫使我们在非周五披露。)这些事情无法用寥寥几段话充分概括,也难以做成记者有时所追求的那种抓眼球的标题。去年,我们就在一个案例中看到,这种短平快式的报道可以离谱到什么程度。在那封长达 12,830 字的年度信中,有这样一句话:“例如,我们确信,经济在 2009 年全年——很可能还会持续更久——都将一团糟,但这个结论并未告诉我们市场会涨还是会跌。”许多新闻机构报道了——确切说是大肆渲染了——这句话的前半部分,而对后半部分只字未提。我认为这是极其糟糕的新闻工作:被误导的读者或观众,很可能会认为查理和我在看空股市,然而我们不仅在那句话里,也在其他地方,都明确表示我们完全没有在预测市场走势。任何被那些哗众取宠者误导的投资者,都付出了沉重的代价:发表该信的当天,道指收于 7,063 点,而年末收于 10,428 点。有了几次这样的经历,你就能理解,为什么我倾向于我们之间的沟通,尽可能做到直接和完整。
We make no attempt to woo Wall Street. Investors who buy and sell based upon media or analyst commentary are not for us. Instead we want partners who join us at Berkshire because they wish to make a long-term investment in a business they themselves understand and because it’s one that follows policies with which they concur. If Charlie and I were to go into a small venture with a few partners, we would seek individuals in sync with us, knowing that common goals and a shared destiny make for a happy business “marriage” between owners and managers. Scaling up to giant size doesn’t change that truth. To build a compatible shareholder population, we try to communicate with our owners directly and informatively. Our goal is to tell you what we would like to know if our positions were reversed. Additionally, we try to post our quarterly and annual financial information on the Internet early on weekends, thereby giving you and other investors plenty of time during a non-trading period to digest just what has happened at our multi-faceted enterprise. (Occasionally, SEC deadlines force a non-Friday disclosure.) These matters simply can’t be adequately summarized in a few paragraphs, nor do they lend themselves to the kind of catchy headline that journalists sometimes seek. Last year we saw, in one instance, how sound-bite reporting can go wrong. Among the 12,830 words in the annual letter was this sentence: “We are certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and probably well beyond – but that conclusion does not tell us whether the market will rise or fall.” Many news organizations reported – indeed, blared – the first part of the sentence while making no mention whatsoever of its ending. I regard this as terrible journalism: Misinformed readers or viewers may well have thought that Charlie and I were forecasting bad things for the stock market, though we had not only in that sentence, but also elsewhere, made it clear we weren’t predicting the market at all. Any investors who were misled by the sensationalists paid a big price: The Dow closed the day of the letter at 7,063 and finished the year at 10,428. Given a few experiences we’ve had like that, you can understand why I prefer that our communications with you remain as direct and unabridged as possible.
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下面谈谈伯克希尔各项业务的具体情况。我们拥有四大运营板块,每个板块在资产负债表和损益表特征上都各不相同。因此,像财务报表中标准做法那样将它们合并在一起,会妨碍分析。所以我们将它们作为四项独立的业务来呈现,这也是查理和我看待它们的方式。5
Let’s move to the specifics of Berkshire’s operations. We have four major operating sectors, each differing from the others in balance sheet and income account characteristics. Therefore, lumping them together, as is standard in financial statements, impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them. 5
保险
我们的财产/意外险(P/C)业务一直是伯克希尔增长的引擎,并且将继续如此。它为我们创造了奇迹。我们在账面上对旗下 P/C 公司的估值,比其有形净资产高出 155 亿美元,这部分差额计入“商誉”科目。然而,这些公司的价值远超其账面价值——以下对 P/C 行业经济模式的分析将告诉你原因。保险公司先收取保费,后支付赔款。在某些极端情况下,例如某些工伤事故所产生的赔付,付款周期可能长达数十年。这种“先收钱、后付款”的模式,让我们持有大笔资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——这些资金终将付给他人。与此同时,我们可以利用这笔浮存金为伯克希尔投资获益。虽然个别保单和赔款来来去去,但我们持有的浮存金总额相对于保费规模而言,却保持着显著的稳定性。因此,随着我们业务的增长,浮存金也随之增加。如果保费收入超过费用和最终损失的总额,我们便录得承保利润,这笔利润是在浮存金产生的投资收益之上的额外收入。这种组合让我们得以使用免费资金——更妙的是,还能因为持有这笔钱而获得收益。可惜,这种美好结果的前景引发了激烈竞争,大多数年份竞争之激烈,导致整个 P/C 行业整体出现显著的承保亏损。实质上,这笔亏损就是行业为持有浮存金所付出的代价。通常这一成本相当低,但在某些灾难频发的年份,承保亏损所造成的代价,会完全吞噬利用浮存金所带来的收益。以我或许带点偏见的眼光来看,伯克希尔拥有全球最出色的大型保险业务。而且我可以肯定地说,我们拥有最出色的经理人。我们的浮存金从 1967 年进入该行业时的 1,600 万美元,增长到 2009 年底的 620 亿美元。此外,我们目前已连续七年实现承保盈利。我相信,在未来大多数年份——当然绝非全部——我们很可能继续保持承保盈利。若能如此,我们的浮存金将是零成本的,就好比有人将 620 亿美元存放在我们这里,我们可以将其用于投资为我们谋利,而无需支付利息。请允许我再次强调:零成本浮存金并非整个 P/C 行业可以指望的结果:在大多数年份里,保费收入都不足以覆盖索赔和费用。因此,几十年来,该行业的整体有形净资产回报率,远低于标普 500 指数的水平。伯克希尔之所以拥有出色的经济效益,仅仅是因为我们拥有一批杰出的经理人,在经营一些非同寻常的业务。我们的保险业 CEO 们理应得到你们的感谢,他们为伯克希尔增加了数十亿美元的价值。能向你们介绍这些全明星级的人物,我感到非常高兴。
Insurance Our property-casualty (P/C) insurance business has been the engine behind Berkshire’s growth and will continue to be. It has worked wonders for us. We carry our P/C companies on our books at $15.5 billion more than their net tangible assets, an amount lodged in our “Goodwill” account. These companies, however, are worth far more than their carrying value – and the following look at the economic model of the P/C industry will tell you why. Insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire’s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains remarkably stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. If premiums exceed the total of expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income produced from the float. This combination allows us to enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Alas, the hope of this happy result attracts intense competition, so vigorous in most years as to cause the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Usually this cost is fairly low, but in some catastrophe-ridden years the cost from underwriting losses more than eats up the income derived from use of float. In my perhaps biased view, Berkshire has the best large insurance operation in the world. And I will absolutely state that we have the best managers. Our float has grown from $16 million in 1967, when we entered the business, to $62 billion at the end of 2009. Moreover, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for seven consecutive years. I believe it likely that we will continue to underwrite profitably in most – though certainly not all – future years. If we do so, our float will be cost-free, much as if someone deposited $62 billion with us that we could invest for our own benefit without the payment of interest. Let me emphasize again that cost-free float is not a result to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: In most years, premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of that achieved by the S&P 500. Outstanding economics exist at Berkshire only because we have some outstanding managers running some unusual businesses. Our insurance CEOs deserve your thanks, having added many billions of dollars to Berkshire’s value. It’s a pleasure for me to tell you about these all-stars.
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先从 GEICO 说起,各位对它都不陌生,只因它每年有 8 亿美元的广告预算(差不多是汽车保险行业第二名投入的两倍)。GEICO 由托尼·奈斯利执掌,他 18 岁便进了公司。如今 66 岁的托尼,每天仍像跳踢踏舞一样轻快地踏进办公室,就像 79 岁的我一样。我俩都庆幸能在自己热爱的事业里干活。GEICO 的客户对公司也满怀好感。有据可查:自 1996 年伯克希尔控股 GEICO 以来,它的市场份额从 2.5% 升至 8.1%,净增了 700 万保单持有人。他们找上门来,或许是觉得我们那只壁虎讨人喜欢,可最终掏钱买单,是因为能省下真金白银。(说不定您也能省一笔:请致电 1-800-847-7536,或登录 www.GEICO.com。)而他们愿意留下来,是因为既喜欢我们的服务,也喜欢我们的价格。伯克希尔分两步买下 GEICO。1976 至 1980 年间,我们花 4,700 万美元买下公司约三分之一的股票。此后多年,公司大手笔回购自家股份,我们没再增持一股,持股比例却水涨船高到约 50%。随后,1996 年 1 月 2 日,我们又以 23 亿美元现金买下 GEICO 余下的 50% 股份,这个价格约为当初买入成本的 50 倍。
Let’s start at GEICO, which is known to all of you because of its $800 million annual advertising budget (close to twice that of the runner-up advertiser in the auto insurance field). GEICO is managed by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18. Now 66, Tony still tap-dances to the office every day, just as I do at 79. We both feel lucky to work at a business we love. GEICO’s customers have warm feelings toward the company as well. Here’s proof: Since Berkshire acquired control of GEICO in 1996, its market share has increased from 2.5% to 8.1%, a gain reflecting the net addition of seven million policyholders. Perhaps they contacted us because they thought our gecko was cute, but they bought from us to save important money. (Maybe you can as well; call 1-800-847-7536 or go to www.GEICO.com.) And they’ve stayed with us because they like our service as well as our price. Berkshire acquired GEICO in two stages. In 1976-80 we bought about one-third of the company’s stock for $47 million. Over the years, large repurchases by the company of its own shares caused our position to grow to about 50% without our having bought any more shares. Then, on January 2, 1996, we acquired the remaining 50% of GEICO for $2.3 billion in cash, about 50 times the cost of our original purchase.
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华尔街有一个老笑话,与我们的经历颇为贴切:
An old Wall Street joke gets close to our experience:
客户:
Customer:
感谢你在 5 美元的时候让我买入 XYZ 股票。听说它已经涨到 18 美元了。
Thanks for putting me in XYZ stock at 5. I hear it’s up to 18.
经纪人:
Broker:
是的,而且这才刚刚开始。事实上,这家公司现在做得这么好,在 18 美元买入甚至比当初你买入时更划算。
Yes, and that’s just the beginning. In fact, the company is doing so well now, that it’s an even better buy at 18 than it was when you made your purchase.
客户:
Customer:
该死,我就知道我当初应该再等等。
Damn, I knew I should have waited.
GEICO 的增长可能会在 2010 年放缓。由于汽车销量低迷,美国的汽车注册量实际上在下降。此外,高失业率导致越来越多的司机没有购买保险。(这几乎在所有地方都是违法的,但如果你丢了工作又仍想开车……)然而,我们作为“低成本运营商”的地位,肯定会在未来为我们带来显著的收益。1995 年,GEICO 是美国第六大汽车保险公司;现在我们已经排名第三。公司的浮存金已从 27 亿美元增长到 96 亿美元。同样重要的是,在伯克希尔持有 GEICO 的 14 年中,它有 13 年实现了承保盈利。我在 1951 年 1 月第一次对 GEICO 感到兴奋,当时我还是个 20 岁的学生,首次拜访了这家公司。多亏了托尼,今天我更加兴奋了。
GEICO’s growth may slow in 2010. U.S. vehicle registrations are actually down because of slumping auto sales. Moreover, high unemployment is causing a growing number of drivers to go uninsured. (That’s illegal almost everywhere, but if you’ve lost your job and still want to drive . . .) Our “low-cost producer” status, however, is sure to give us significant gains in the future. In 1995, GEICO was the country’s sixth largest auto insurer; now we are number three. The company’s float has grown from $2.7 billion to $9.6 billion. Equally important, GEICO has operated at an underwriting profit in 13 of the 14 years Berkshire has owned it. I became excited about GEICO in January 1951, when I first visited the company as a 20-year-old student. Thanks to Tony, I’m even more excited today.
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伯克希尔历史上一个极其重大的事件,发生在 1985 年的一个星期六。阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)来到我们在奥马哈的办公室——我立刻就知道我们发现了一位超级巨星。(他是被迈克·戈德堡(Mike Goldberg)发掘的,现在我尊称他为圣迈克。)我们立即让阿吉特负责国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity)规模尚小且经营困难的再保险业务。多年来,他将这项业务打造成了保险界独一无二的巨擘。阿吉特手下目前仅有 30 人,但他的业务在保险的多个领域创造了交易规模纪录。阿吉特承接数十亿美元保额的保单——然后自己承担每一分风险,而不是将其分保给其他保险公司。三年前,他从劳合社(Lloyds)承接了巨额债务,使其得以理清与 27,972 名“记名成员”(names)的关系,这些人曾承保了问题重重的保单,一度威胁到这家拥有 322 年历史的机构的存亡。仅那一份合同的保费就达 71 亿美元。在 2009 年,他又谈成了一笔人寿再保险合同,该合同可能在今后约 50 年的时间里,为我们带来 500 亿美元的保费。阿吉特的业务正好与 GEICO 相反。在 GEICO,我们拥有数百万份小额保单,且年年大多会续保。而阿吉特签发的保单数量相对较少,且每年业务组合变化很大。在世界各地,凡是有巨大且不同寻常的风险需要承保时,他就是那个被公认为值得找的人。如果查理、我和阿吉特同在一条正在下沉的船上,而你只能救我们其中一人——请游向阿吉特。
A hugely important event in Berkshire’s history occurred on a Saturday in 1985. Ajit Jain came into our office in Omaha – and I immediately knew we had found a superstar. (He had been discovered by Mike Goldberg, now elevated to St. Mike.) We immediately put Ajit in charge of National Indemnity’s small and struggling reinsurance operation. Over the years, he has built this business into a one-of-a-kind giant in the insurance world. Staffed today by only 30 people, Ajit’s operation has set records for transaction size in several areas of insurance. Ajit writes billion-dollar limits – and then keeps every dime of the risk instead of laying it off with other insurers. Three years ago, he took over huge liabilities from Lloyds, allowing it to clean up its relationship with 27,972 participants (“names”) who had written problem-ridden policies that at one point threatened the survival of this 322-year-old institution. The premium for that single contract was $7.1 billion. During 2009, he negotiated a life reinsurance contract that could produce $50 billion of premium for us over the next 50 or so years. Ajit’s business is just the opposite of GEICO’s. At that company, we have millions of small policies that largely renew year after year. Ajit writes relatively few policies, and the mix changes significantly from year to year. Throughout the world, he is known as the man to call when something both very large and unusual needs to be insured. If Charlie, I and Ajit are ever in a sinking boat – and you can only save one of us – swim to Ajit.
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我们的第三座保险重镇是通用再保险(General Re)。若干年前,这家公司一度问题缠身;而如今,它是我们保险皇冠上一颗璀璨的明珠。在泰德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)的领导下,通用再保险在 2009 年取得了出色的承保业绩,同时每美元保费还为我们带来了异常丰厚的浮存金。除通用再保险的财产/意外险业务外,泰德及其同事还发展了一项重要的人寿再保险业务,其价值日益增长。去年,通用再保险终于实现了对科隆再保险(Cologne Re)的 100% 控股,自 1995 年以来,科隆再保险一直是我们全球业务布局的重要组成部分——尽管此前只是部分持股。泰德和我会在 9 月访问科隆,以感谢那里的管理层为伯克希尔做出的重要贡献。7
Our third insurance powerhouse is General Re. Some years back this operation was troubled; now it is a gleaming jewel in our insurance crown. Under the leadership of Tad Montross, General Re had an outstanding underwriting year in 2009, while also delivering us unusually large amounts of float per dollar of premium volume. Alongside General Re’s P/C business, Tad and his associates have developed a major life reinsurance operation that has grown increasingly valuable. Last year General Re finally attained 100% ownership of Cologne Re, which since 1995 has been a key – though only partially-owned – part of our presence around the world. Tad and I will be visiting Cologne in September to thank its managers for their important contribution to Berkshire. 7
最后,我们还有一批规模较小的公司,多数专营保险业的冷门角落。总体来看,它们的业绩始终盈利,而且如下表所示,为我们提供的浮存金相当可观。这些公司和它们的经理人,都是查理和我格外珍视的。以下是我们财产意外险与人寿保险四个板块的业绩记录:
Finally, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them specializing in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, their results have consistently been profitable and, as the table below shows, the float they provide us is substantial. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers. Here is the record of all four segments of our property-casualty and life insurance businesses:
保险业务
Insurance Operations
承保利润 年末浮存金(单位:百万美元) 2009 年 2008 年 2009 年 2008 年
Underwriting Profit Yearend Float (in millions) 2009 2008 2009 2008
| 承保利润 | (百万) | 年末浮动 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 保险运营 | 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 |
| 通用再保险公司 | $ 477 | $ 342 | $21,014 | $21,074 |
| BH再保险 | 349 | 1,324 | 26,223 | 24,221 |
| GEICO | 649 | 916 | 9,613 | 8,454 |
| 其他主要业务 | 84 | 210 | 5,061 | 4,739 |
| $1,559 | $2,792 | $61,911 | $58,488 |
| Underwriting Profit | (in millions) | Yearend Float | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Operations | 2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 |
| General Re | $ 477 | $ 342 | $21,014 | $21,074 |
| BH Reinsurance | 349 | 1,324 | 26,223 | 24,221 |
| GEICO | 649 | 916 | 9,613 | 8,454 |
| Other Primary | 84 | 210 | 5,061 | 4,739 |
| $1,559 | $2,792 | $61,911 | $58,488 |
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现在,我要痛苦地坦白一桩事:去年,身为董事长的我,亲手了结了一场代价高昂、且完全咎由自取的商业闹剧。多年来,我一直苦苦琢磨,想给数百万忠实的 GEICO 客户添些周边产品。不幸的是,我终于“得逞”了——灵光一闪,想出个自认绝妙的主意:我们该发行自己的信用卡。我盘算着,GEICO 的投保人多半信用良好,只要我们推出一张有吸引力的卡,他们大概率会把生意交给我们。生意我们确实揽到了——只是揽错了那一种。信用卡业务的税前亏损累计到约 630 万美元,我才总算清醒过来。随后,我们把那笔 9,800 万美元的不良应收账款组合,以五毛五兑一美元的价格甩卖,又亏进去 4,400 万美元。必须说明,GEICO 的管理层从一开始就不看好我这主意。他们警告我,招来的不会是 GEICO 客户里的精华,而是——呃,姑且称之为“糟粕”。我当时还含蓄地暗示,我比他们年长,也更明白事理。结果我只是更年长而已。
And now a painful confession: Last year your chairman closed the book on a very expensive business fiasco entirely of his own making. For many years I had struggled to think of side products that we could offer our millions of loyal GEICO customers. Unfortunately, I finally succeeded, coming up with a brilliant insight that we should market our own credit card. I reasoned that GEICO policyholders were likely to be good credit risks and, assuming we offered an attractive card, would likely favor us with their business. We got business all right – but of the wrong type. Our pre-tax losses from credit-card operations came to about $6.3 million before I finally woke up. We then sold our $98 million portfolio of troubled receivables for 55¢ on the dollar, losing an additional $44 million. GEICO’s managers, it should be emphasized, were never enthusiastic about my idea. They warned me that instead of getting the cream of GEICO’s customers we would get the – – – – – well, let’s call it the non-cream. I subtly indicated that I was older and wiser. I was just older.
受监管的公用事业业务
Regulated Utility Business
伯克希尔持有中美能源控股公司 89.5% 的权益,该公司旗下的电力公用事业种类繁多。其中规模最大的几家是:(1)约克郡电力和北方电力,其 380 万终端用户使其成为英国第三大配电商;(2)中美能源公司,主要服务爱荷华州的 72.5 万电力客户;(3)太平洋电力和落基山电力,在西部六个州服务约 170 万电力客户;(4)克恩河和北方天然气两条管道,输送量约占全美天然气消耗的 8%。中美能源有两位出色的管理者,戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔。此外,我的老友沃尔特·斯科特及其家族也是公司的主要股东。无论经营什么业务,沃尔特都能带来非凡的商业智慧。与戴夫、格雷格和沃尔特共事的十年,印证了我最初的判断:伯克希尔再也找不到更好的合作伙伴,他们是名副其实的梦之队。多少有些不搭调的是,中美能源还拥有全美第二大房地产经纪公司——美国家居服务。这家公司通过 21 家地方品牌运营,旗下共有 1.6 万名经纪人。尽管去年又是房屋销售惨淡的一年,美国家居服务仍赚得一笔薄利。它还在芝加哥收购了一家公司,往后只要有优质经纪业务以合理价格出现,还会继续买进。十年之后,美国家居服务的规模很可能会大得多。8
Berkshire has an 89.5% interest in MidAmerican Energy Holdings, which owns a wide variety of utility operations. The largest of these are (1) Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric, whose 3.8 million end users make it the U.K.’s third largest distributor of electricity; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which serves 725,000 electric customers, primarily in Iowa; (3) Pacific Power and Rocky Mountain Power, serving about 1.7 million electric customers in six western states; and (4) Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines, which carry about 8% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. MidAmerican has two terrific managers, Dave Sokol and Greg Abel. In addition, my long-time friend, Walter Scott, along with his family, has a major ownership position in the company. Walter brings extraordinary business savvy to any operation. Ten years of working with Dave, Greg and Walter have reinforced my original belief: Berkshire couldn’t have better partners. They are truly a dream team. Somewhat incongruously, MidAmerican also owns the second largest real estate brokerage firm in the U.S., HomeServices of America. This company operates through 21 locally-branded firms that have 16,000 agents. Though last year was again a terrible year for home sales, HomeServices earned a modest sum. It also acquired a firm in Chicago and will add other quality brokerage operations when they are available at sensible prices. A decade from now, HomeServices is likely to be much larger. 8
以下是中美能源经营情况的一些关键数据:
Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operations:
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盈利(单位:百万美元) 2009 2008
英国公用事业 爱荷华州公用事业 西部公用事业 管道业务 HomeServices 其他(净值)
Earnings (in millions) 2009 2008 U.K. utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Iowa utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Western utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pipelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HomeServices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other (net) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$
$
248 285 788 457 43 25
248 285 788 457 43 25
$
$
339 425 703 595 (45) 186
339 425 703 595 (45) 186
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未计入公司利息和税项的营业利润……星座能源*……支付给伯克希尔以外的利息……伯克希尔次级债务的利息……所得税……
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Constellation Energy * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest, other than to Berkshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest on Berkshire junior debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Income tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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1,846 — (318) (58) (313) 2,203 1,092 (332) (111) (1,002)
1,846 — (318) (58) (313) 2,203 1,092 (332) (111) (1,002)
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净利润 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 1,157 $ 1,850
$ 1,157 $ 1,850
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归属于伯克希尔的利润……欠其他人的债务……欠伯克希尔的债务……
Earnings applicable to Berkshire ** . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Debt owed to others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Debt owed to Berkshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 1,071 19,579 353 $ 1,704 19,145 1,087
$ 1,071 19,579 353 $ 1,704 19,145 1,087
*包含 1.75 亿美元的解约费,以及我们投资获利的 9.17 亿美元。**包含伯克希尔赚取的利息(扣除相关所得税后),2009 年为 3,800 万美元,2008 年为 7,200 万美元。我们受监管的电力公用事业,多数情形下提供的是垄断服务,与服务区内的客户形成一种共生关系:客户仰赖我们提供一流服务、并为他们未来的需求投资。发电和主干输电设施从审批到建成周期极长,因此我们必须目光长远。反过来,我们也指望公用事业监管机构(代表客户行事)允许我们,就为满足未来需求而必须投入的巨额资本,赚取合理回报。我们若不先尽到自己的本分,就不该指望监管机构兑现他们那一头的承诺。戴夫和格雷格确保了我们尽本分。全国性的调研机构,一贯把我们在爱荷华州和西部的公用事业排在行业前列或接近榜首。同样,在一家名为 Mastio 的公司所评的 43 条美国管道中,我们的克恩河和北方天然气并列第二。此外,我们持续向业务投入巨资,既为未来未雨绸缪,也让这些运营更加环保。自十年前收购中美能源以来,它从未派发过一分股息。我们把利润全部用于改善和扩建各服务区的资产。举个鲜明的例子:过去三年,我们在爱荷华州和西部的公用事业赚了 25 亿美元,同期却在风力发电设施上投入了 30 亿美元。中美能源始终恪守它对社会的承诺,而社会也投桃报李,值得称道:除极少数例外,监管机构总能爽快地允许我们,就那笔不断膨胀、又不得不投入的资本赚取公平回报。往后,我们会不惜代价,按各服务区期望的方式服务好它们。我们也相信,作为回报,我们所投的资金会拿到应得的回报。早些年,查理和我对公用事业这类资本密集型生意避之唯恐不及。的确,迄今为止对所有者最好的生意,仍是那种资本回报率高、增长却几乎不需追加投入的企业。我们有幸坐拥好几家这样的公司,也乐意再多买一些。不过,考虑到伯克希尔将源源不断地产生越来越多的现金,如今我们很乐意进入那些需要经常性大额资本开支的行业。我们对这类业务只有一个期望:它们对所追加投入的资金,有望赚取尚可的回报。倘若期望得偿——我们相信会——那么伯克希尔这个不断壮大的“从良到优”的企业组合,在未来几十年应能带来高于平均、却谈不上惊艳的回报。
*Consists of a breakup fee of $175 million and a profit on our investment of $917 million. **Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $38 in 2009 and $72 in 2008. Our regulated electric utilities, offering monopoly service in most cases, operate in a symbiotic manner with the customers in their service areas, with those users depending on us to provide first-class service and invest for their future needs. Permitting and construction periods for generation and major transmission facilities stretch way out, so it is incumbent on us to be far-sighted. We, in turn, look to our utilities’ regulators (acting on behalf of our customers) to allow us an appropriate return on the huge amounts of capital we must deploy to meet future needs. We shouldn’t expect our regulators to live up to their end of the bargain unless we live up to ours. Dave and Greg make sure we do just that. National research companies consistently rank our Iowa and Western utilities at or near the top of their industry. Similarly, among the 43 U.S. pipelines ranked by a firm named Mastio, our Kern River and Northern Natural properties tied for second place. Moreover, we continue to pour huge sums of money into our operations so as to not only prepare for the future but also make these operations more environmentally friendly. Since we purchased MidAmerican ten years ago, it has never paid a dividend. We have instead used earnings to improve and expand our properties in each of the territories we serve. As one dramatic example, in the last three years our Iowa and Western utilities have earned $2.5 billion, while in this same period spending $3 billion on wind generation facilities. MidAmerican has consistently kept its end of the bargain with society and, to society’s credit, it has reciprocated: With few exceptions, our regulators have promptly allowed us to earn a fair return on the everincreasing sums of capital we must invest. Going forward, we will do whatever it takes to serve our territories in the manner they expect. We believe that, in turn, we will be allowed the return we deserve on the funds we invest. In earlier days, Charlie and I shunned capital-intensive businesses such as public utilities. Indeed, the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. We are fortunate to own a number of such businesses, and we would love to buy more. Anticipating, however, that Berkshire will generate ever-increasing amounts of cash, we are today quite willing to enter businesses that regularly require large capital expenditures. We expect only that these businesses have reasonable expectations of earning decent returns on the incremental sums they invest. If our expectations are met – and we believe that they will be – Berkshire’s ever-growing collection of good to great businesses should produce above-average, though certainly not spectacular, returns in the decades ahead.
9
9
应当指出,我们的 BNSF 铁路业务,在几项重要的经济特征上,与电力公用事业颇为相似。两者都提供基础性服务,这些服务无论现在还是将来,都关乎客户、我们所服务的社区乃至整个国家的经济福祉。两者未来数十年都需要远超折旧准备的巨额投资,也都必须提前谋划,以满足预期将超过以往的需求。最后,两者都离不开明智的监管机构,由它们为允许的回报率提供确定性,我们才能放心地投下那些用于维护、更新和扩建设施的巨资。我们看到,公众与我们的铁路业务之间存在一份“社会契约”,正如公用事业那样。任何一方逃避义务,双方终将两败俱伤。因此,契约双方都应当——我们也相信会——明白:以善意回应善意,对彼此都有好处。没有一流的电力和铁路系统,国家就不可能实现哪怕接近其全部经济潜力的成就。我们会尽自己的一份力,确保这两套系统存续。今后,BNSF 的业绩将并入“受监管公用事业”这一板块。除了两块业务底层经济特征相近,它们都还是大量债务的合理承载者——这些债务并不由伯克希尔担保。两者都会留存大部分利润,也都会在顺境逆境中赚取并投下大笔资金,只是铁路业务的周期性更强。总体而言,我们预计这一受监管板块的利润会随时间显著增长,代价则是我们要投入数十——没错,是数十——亿美元的增量股权资本。
Our BNSF operation, it should be noted, has certain important economic characteristics that resemble those of our electric utilities. In both cases we provide fundamental services that are, and will remain, essential to the economic well-being of our customers, the communities we serve, and indeed the nation. Both will require heavy investment that greatly exceeds depreciation allowances for decades to come. Both must also plan far ahead to satisfy demand that is expected to outstrip the needs of the past. Finally, both require wise regulators who will provide certainty about allowable returns so that we can confidently make the huge investments required to maintain, replace and expand the plant. We see a “social compact” existing between the public and our railroad business, just as is the case with our utilities. If either side shirks its obligations, both sides will inevitably suffer. Therefore, both parties to the compact should – and we believe will – understand the benefit of behaving in a way that encourages good behavior by the other. It is inconceivable that our country will realize anything close to its full economic potential without its possessing first-class electricity and railroad systems. We will do our part to see that they exist. In the future, BNSF results will be included in this “regulated utility” section. Aside from the two businesses having similar underlying economic characteristics, both are logical users of substantial amounts of debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Both will retain most of their earnings. Both will earn and invest large sums in good times or bad, though the railroad will display the greater cyclicality. Overall, we expect this regulated sector to deliver significantly increased earnings over time, albeit at the cost of our investing many tens – yes, tens – of billions of dollars of incremental equity capital.
制造、服务与零售业务
Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations
伯克希尔在这一板块的业务五花八门、无所不包。不过,我们还是先看整个板块的汇总资产负债表和损益表。资产负债表 2009 年 12 月 31 日(单位:百万美元)
Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/09 (in millions)
资产
Assets
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现金及等价物……应收账款及票据……存货……其他流动资产……
Cash and equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Accounts and notes receivable . . . . . . . . . . Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 3,018 5,066 6,147 625
$ 3,018 5,066 6,147 625
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流动资产合计……
Total current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14,856
14,856
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商誉及其他无形资产 固定资产 其他资产
Goodwill and other intangibles . . . . . . . . . Fixed assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16,499 15,374 2,070
16,499 15,374 2,070
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负债和所有者权益 应付票据 其他流动负债
Liabilities and Equity Notes payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 1,842 7,414
$ 1,842 7,414
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流动负债合计……
Total current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9,256
9,256
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递延所得税……定期债务及其他负债……股东权益……
Deferred taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Term debt and other liabilities . . . . . . . . . . Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2,834 6,240 30,469 $48,799 $48,799
2,834 6,240 30,469 $48,799 $48,799
损益表(单位:百万美元)2009 年
Earnings Statement (in millions) 2009
2008 2007
2008 2007
| Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $1,422 in 2009, $1,280 in 2008 | $61,665 $66,099 $59,100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| and $955 in 2007) | 59,509 61,937 | 55,026 | |
| 利息费用 | 98 139 | 127 | |
| 税前收益 | 2,058* | 4,023* | 3,947* |
| 所得税及少数股东权益 | 945 | 1,740 | 1,594 |
| 净收入 | $ 1,113 | $ 2,283 | $ 2,353 |
| Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $1,422 in 2009, $1,280 in 2008 | $61,665 $66,099 $59,100 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| and $955 in 2007) | 59,509 61,937 | 55,026 | |
| Interest expense | 98 139 | 127 | |
| Pre-tax earnings | 2,058* | 4,023* | 3,947* |
| Income taxes and minority interests | 945 | 1,740 | 1,594 |
| Net income | $ 1,113 | $ 2,283 | $ 2,353 |
$ 1,113 $ 2,283 $ 2,353
$ 1,113 $ 2,283 $ 2,353
*不包含购买法会计调整。
*Does not include purchase-accounting adjustments.
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10
这个板块的业务种类繁多、覆盖面极广,却几乎无一例外,都在不同程度上挨了 2009 年这场严重衰退的一击。最大的例外是麦克莱恩(McLane),我们这家向数千家零售门店供应食品杂货、糖果和非食品商品的经销商,其中最大的客户当属沃尔玛。格雷迪·罗西尔带领麦克莱恩创下 3.44 亿美元的税前利润纪录——即便如此,摊到它高达 312 亿美元的庞大销售额上,每一美元也只赚了略高于 1 美分。麦克莱恩动用了海量有形资产(几乎全部自有),包括 3,242 辆挂车、2,309 辆牵引车,以及 55 个共计 1,520 万平方英尺的配送中心。但麦克莱恩最宝贵的资产,是格雷迪本人。我们还有好几家公司,在销售额萎缩之际利润反而提升——这向来是极为出众的管理成就。以下就是缔造这一成绩的几位 CEO:
Almost all of the many and widely-diverse operations in this sector suffered to one degree or another from 2009’s severe recession. The major exception was McLane, our distributor of groceries, confections and non-food items to thousands of retail outlets, the largest by far Wal-Mart. Grady Rosier led McLane to record pre-tax earnings of $344 million, which even so amounted to only slightly more than one cent per dollar on its huge sales of $31.2 billion. McLane employs a vast array of physical assets – practically all of which it owns – including 3,242 trailers, 2,309 tractors and 55 distribution centers with 15.2 million square feet of space. McLane’s prime asset, however, is Grady. We had a number of companies at which profits improved even as sales contracted, always an exceptional managerial achievement. Here are the CEOs who made it happen:
公司
COMPANY
首席执行官
CEO
本杰明·摩尔(涂料)、波仙珠宝(珠宝零售)、H.H. 布朗(鞋类制造与零售)、CTB(农业设备)。
Benjamin Moore (paint) Borsheims (jewelry retailing) H. H. Brown (manufacturing and retailing of shoes) CTB (agricultural equipment)
冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)
Dairy Queen
内布拉斯加家具城(家具零售)、精致大厨(Pampered Chef,厨房用具直销)、喜诗糖果(糖果制造与零售)、Star Furniture(家具零售)
Nebraska Furniture Mart (furniture retailing) Pampered Chef (direct sales of kitchen tools) See’s (manufacturing and retailing of candy) Star Furniture (furniture retailing)
丹尼斯·艾布拉姆斯、苏珊·雅克、吉姆·伊斯勒、维克·曼奇内利、约翰·盖纳、罗恩·布拉姆金和欧文·布拉姆金、玛拉·戈特沙尔克、布拉德·金斯特勒、比尔·金布雷尔
Denis Abrams Susan Jacques Jim Issler Vic Mancinelli John Gainor Ron and Irv Blumkin Marla Gottschalk Brad Kinstler Bill Kimbrell
在我们旗下那些与萧条的工业部门关系密切的企业中,马蒙集团和伊斯卡的表现相对强劲。弗兰克·普塔克执掌的马蒙,实现了 13.5% 的税前利润率,创下历史新高。尽管销售额下滑 27%,弗兰克精打细算的管理仍减缓了利润的下降。没有什么能拦住这家以色列企业伊斯卡——战争、衰退、竞争对手,统统拦不住。全球另外两家领先的小型刀具供应商,都熬过了异常艰难的一年,全年大半时间都在亏损。伊斯卡 2009 年的业绩虽比 2008 年大幅回落,却始终有盈利,哪怕它正忙于整合、梳理去年向各位提过的那桩日本大型收购——泰珂洛(Tungaloy)。制造业一旦回暖,伊斯卡必将再创新高,那支了不起的管理团队——埃坦·韦特海默、雅各布·哈帕兹和丹尼·戈德曼——会确保这一点。我们旗下所有与住宅和商业建筑沾边的企业,2009 年都遭了重创。肖氏地毯、约翰斯·曼维尔、阿克米砖业和米泰克四家合计的税前利润为 2.27 亿美元,较 2006 年建筑业鼎盛时的 12.95 亿美元骤降 82.5%。这些企业仍在谷底徘徊,但竞争地位丝毫未损。去年伯克希尔最大的麻烦是 NetJets,这家航空公司经营的是私人飞机的部分产权。多年来,它极为成功地确立了行业头把交椅的地位,机队价值远超三大竞争对手之和。总体而言,我们在这一领域的统治地位无人能撼。可 NetJets 的经营状况,则完全是另一回事。我们持有它的 11 年里,它累计录得 1.57 亿美元的税前亏损;债务更是从收购时的 1.02 亿美元,一路飙到去年 4 月的 19 亿美元。若没有伯克希尔为这些债务担保,NetJets 早就关门大吉了。任由 NetJets 沦落至此,显然是我辜负了你们。所幸,有人替我解了围。
Among the businesses we own that have major exposure to the depressed industrial sector, both Marmon and Iscar turned in relatively strong performances. Frank Ptak’s Marmon delivered a 13.5% pre-tax profit margin, a record high. Though the company’s sales were down 27%, Frank’s cost-conscious management mitigated the decline in earnings. Nothing stops Israel-based Iscar – not wars, recessions or competitors. The world’s two other leading suppliers of small cutting tools both had very difficult years, each operating at a loss throughout much of the year. Though Iscar’s results were down significantly from 2008, the company regularly reported profits, even while it was integrating and rationalizing Tungaloy, the large Japanese acquisition that we told you about last year. When manufacturing rebounds, Iscar will set new records. Its incredible managerial team of Eitan Wertheimer, Jacob Harpaz and Danny Goldman will see to that. Every business we own that is connected to residential and commercial construction suffered severely in 2009. Combined pre-tax earnings of Shaw, Johns Manville, Acme Brick, and MiTek were $227 million, an 82.5% decline from $1.295 billion in 2006, when construction activity was booming. These businesses continue to bump along the bottom, though their competitive positions remain undented. The major problem for Berkshire last year was NetJets, an aviation operation that offers fractional ownership of jets. Over the years, it has been enormously successful in establishing itself as the premier company in its industry, with the value of its fleet far exceeding that of its three major competitors combined. Overall, our dominance in the field remains unchallenged. NetJets’ business operation, however, has been another story. In the eleven years that we have owned the company, it has recorded an aggregate pre-tax loss of $157 million. Moreover, the company’s debt has soared from $102 million at the time of purchase to $1.9 billion in April of last year. Without Berkshire’s guarantee of this debt, NetJets would have been out of business. It’s clear that I failed you in letting NetJets descend into this condition. But, luckily, I have been bailed out.
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戴夫·索科尔,这位极具才华的中美能源缔造者与经营者,八月出任了 NetJets 的 CEO。他的领导带来了脱胎换骨的转变:债务已降至 14 亿美元;在 2009 年蒙受 7.11 亿美元的骇人亏损之后,公司如今已稳稳盈利。最要紧的是,戴夫推行的种种变革,丝毫未曾动摇 NetJets 前任 CEO、部分产权行业开创者里奇·桑图利所坚守的一流安全与服务标准。维护这些标准,戴夫和我个人都利害攸关——我们和家人几乎所有的出行都靠 NetJets,许多董事和经理人也是如此。我们谁都没有专属的飞机或机组,享受的待遇和其他任何客户完全一样,也就是说,用自己的个人合同飞行时,付的价钱和所有人一模一样。一句话,我们吃的是自家做的饭。在航空业,没有比这更有分量的背书了。
Dave Sokol, the enormously talented builder and operator of MidAmerican Energy, became CEO of NetJets in August. His leadership has been transforming: Debt has already been reduced to $1.4 billion, and, after suffering a staggering loss of $711 million in 2009, the company is now solidly profitable. Most important, none of the changes wrought by Dave have in any way undercut the top-of-the-line standards for safety and service that Rich Santulli, NetJets’ previous CEO and the father of the fractionalownership industry, insisted upon. Dave and I have the strongest possible personal interest in maintaining these standards because we and our families use NetJets for almost all of our flying, as do many of our directors and managers. None of us are assigned special planes nor crews. We receive exactly the same treatment as any other owner, meaning we pay the same prices as everyone else does when we are using our personal contracts. In short, we eat our own cooking. In the aviation business, no other testimonial means more.
金融与金融产品
Finance and Financial Products
这个板块里规模最大的业务是克莱顿住宅公司,它是全美领先的模块化和预制房屋生产商。克莱顿并非一直稳居第一:十年前,三大制造商是福利特伍德、冠军和奥克伍德,三家合计占了行业产量的 44%,如今却已悉数破产。与此同时,行业总产量从 1999 年的 38.2 万套,跌到 2009 年的 6 万套。这个行业陷入一片狼藉,有两个原因,其中头一个若想让美国经济复苏,就只能与之共处。这个原因关乎美国的新屋开工量(含公寓单元)。2009 年,新屋开工 55.4 万套,是我们有数据可查的这 50 年来最低的一年。吊诡的是,这反倒是个好消息。几年前,当新屋开工量——也就是供给端——每年约达 200 万套时,人们曾以为那是好消息,可家庭新增量——也就是需求端——每年只有约 120 万套。这般失衡持续几年后,这个国家理所当然地落得房屋严重过剩。消化这堆积压有三条路:(1)炸掉一大批房子,好比“旧车换现金”里销毁汽车的做法;(2)加快组建家庭,比如鼓励青少年同居——这项计划想必不缺志愿者;(3)把新屋开工量压到远低于家庭新增速度的水平。我们国家明智地选了第三条,这意味着一年左右,住宅地产的困局大体就会成为过去,唯一的例外是高价房,以及个别过度开发格外离谱的地区。房价当然会远低于“泡沫”时的水平,但每有一个卖家(或放贷方)因此受损,就会有一个买家从中受益。事实上,许多几年前买不起合适住房的家庭,如今发现完全负担得起了,正是因为泡沫破了。预制房屋陷入困境的第二个原因,则是这个行业独有的:工厂造的房子与现场建的房子,在按揭利率上存在惩罚性的落差。往下读之前,请容我把一点显而易见的事挑明:伯克希尔在这场纷争里是有切身利害的,因此下面这番话,你们要格外审慎地掂量。把这层提醒说在前头之后,我再来解释,为什么利率落差会同时给大量低收入美国人和克莱顿带来麻烦。住房按揭市场是由联邦住房管理局(FHA)、房地美和房利美所体现的政府规则塑造的。它们的放贷标准至高无上,因为经它们担保的按揭通常可以证券化,实际上摇身变成美国政府的债务。眼下,符合这些担保条件、购买传统现场建房的买家,能拿到 30 年期、利率约 5.25% 的贷款。而且,美联储近期大手笔买入了这类按揭,这一举动也把利率压到了地板价。相比之下,很少有工厂造的房子够得上机构担保按揭的门槛。因此,一位条件不错的工厂房屋买家,贷款利率得付到约 9%。对全款买家来说,克莱顿的房子物超所值;可一旦买家需要按揭融资——大多数人当然都需要——融资成本上的这段落差,往往会把工厂房屋诱人的价格优势抵销殆尽。
Our largest operation in this sector is Clayton Homes, the country’s leading producer of modular and manufactured homes. Clayton was not always number one: A decade ago the three leading manufacturers were Fleetwood, Champion and Oakwood, which together accounted for 44% of the output of the industry. All have since gone bankrupt. Total industry output, meanwhile, has fallen from 382,000 units in 1999 to 60,000 units in 2009. The industry is in shambles for two reasons, the first of which must be lived with if the U.S. economy is to recover. This reason concerns U.S. housing starts (including apartment units). In 2009, starts were 554,000, by far the lowest number in the 50 years for which we have data. Paradoxically, this is good news. People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts – the supply side of the picture – were running about two million annually. But household formations – the demand side – only amounted to about 1.2 million. After a few years of such imbalances, the country unsurprisingly ended up with far too many houses. There were three ways to cure this overhang: (1) blow up a lot of houses, a tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the “cash-for-clunkers” program; (2) speed up household formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers or; (3) reduce new housing starts to a number far below the rate of household formations. Our country has wisely selected the third option, which means that within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious. Prices will remain far below “bubble” levels, of course, but for every seller (or lender) hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits. Indeed, many families that couldn’t afford to buy an appropriate home a few years ago now find it well within their means because the bubble burst. The second reason that manufactured housing is troubled is specific to the industry: the punitive differential in mortgage rates between factory-built homes and site-built homes. Before you read further, let me underscore the obvious: Berkshire has a dog in this fight, and you should therefore assess the commentary that follows with special care. That warning made, however, let me explain why the rate differential causes problems for both large numbers of lower-income Americans and Clayton. The residential mortgage market is shaped by government rules that are expressed by FHA, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Their lending standards are all-powerful because the mortgages they insure can typically be securitized and turned into what, in effect, is an obligation of the U.S. government. Currently buyers of conventional site-built homes who qualify for these guarantees can obtain a 30-year loan at about 5 1⁄ 4%. In addition, these are mortgages that have recently been purchased in massive amounts by the Federal Reserve, an action that also helped to keep rates at bargain-basement levels. In contrast, very few factory-built homes qualify for agency-insured mortgages. Therefore, a meritorious buyer of a factory-built home must pay about 9% on his loan. For the all-cash buyer, Clayton’s homes offer terrific value. If the buyer needs mortgage financing, however – and, of course, most buyers do – the difference in financing costs too often negates the attractive price of a factory-built home. 12
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
去年我告诉过各位,为什么我们的买家——大多是低收入人群——作为信贷对象表现得如此之好。他们的心态至关重要:他们签约是为了住进这套房子,而不是转手或再融资。因此,我们的买家通常申请的是与其经核实收入相匹配的贷款(我们不做“骗子贷款”),一心盼着有朝一日能把按揭一把火烧掉。若他们失业、生病或离婚,我们当然会预料到违约;但他们极少仅仅因为房价下跌就弃房而去。即便到了今天,尽管失业问题加剧,克莱顿的逾期和违约率仍在合理范围,不会给我们惹出大麻烦。我们一直想让更多客户的贷款,享受到与现场建房相近的待遇,可至今只取得了象征性的进展。于是,许多收入不高却行事负责的家庭,只因工厂房屋附带的融资落差把月供推得太高,不得不与自有住房无缘。倘若资格门槛不放宽,让所有符合首付和收入标准的人都能拿到低成本融资,预制房屋这个行业恐怕注定要在挣扎中萎缩下去。即便处境如此,我仍相信克莱顿未来几年能保持盈利,尽管远未发挥出应有的潜力。我们再找不到比 CEO 凯文·克莱顿更好的管理者了,他把伯克希尔的利益当自己的利益一样看待。我们的产品一流、价廉,还在不断改进。而且,出于对其稳健性的笃信,我们会继续动用伯克希尔的信用来支撑克莱顿的按揭计划。即便如此,伯克希尔的借款利率也远远够不上政府机构的水平。这块短板会限制销量,既拖累克莱顿,也辜负了众多渴望低价住房、理应得到帮助的家庭。下表中,克莱顿的收益已扣除它为使用伯克希尔信用而支付的费用;这笔支出,恰好被计入伯克希尔金融业务、并列入“其他收入”的等额收入所抵销。这笔费用兼收入,2009 年为 1.16 亿美元,2008 年为 9,200 万美元。下表还显示,我们的家具租赁(CORT)和挂车租赁(XTRA)业务被这场衰退打击得何等沉重。尽管它们的竞争地位一如既往地稳固,我们却还没在这两块业务上看到任何反弹。
Last year I told you why our buyers – generally people with low incomes – performed so well as credit risks. Their attitude was all-important: They signed up to live in the home, not resell or refinance it. Consequently, our buyers usually took out loans with payments geared to their verified incomes (we weren’t making “liar’s loans”) and looked forward to the day they could burn their mortgage. If they lost their jobs, had health problems or got divorced, we could of course expect defaults. But they seldom walked away simply because house values had fallen. Even today, though job-loss troubles have grown, Clayton’s delinquencies and defaults remain reasonable and will not cause us significant problems. We have tried to qualify more of our customers’ loans for treatment similar to those available on the site-built product. So far we have had only token success. Many families with modest incomes but responsible habits have therefore had to forego home ownership simply because the financing differential attached to the factory-built product makes monthly payments too expensive. If qualifications aren’t broadened, so as to open low-cost financing to all who meet down-payment and income standards, the manufactured-home industry seems destined to struggle and dwindle. Even under these conditions, I believe Clayton will operate profitably in coming years, though well below its potential. We couldn’t have a better manager than CEO Kevin Clayton, who treats Berkshire’s interests as if they were his own. Our product is first-class, inexpensive and constantly being improved. Moreover, we will continue to use Berkshire’s credit to support Clayton’s mortgage program, convinced as we are of its soundness. Even so, Berkshire can’t borrow at a rate approaching that available to government agencies. This handicap will limit sales, hurting both Clayton and a multitude of worthy families who long for a low-cost home. In the following table, Clayton’s earnings are net of the company’s payment to Berkshire for the use of its credit. Offsetting this cost to Clayton is an identical amount of income credited to Berkshire’s finance operation and included in “Other Income.” The cost and income amount was $116 million in 2009 and $92 million in 2008. The table also illustrates how severely our furniture (CORT) and trailer (XTRA) leasing operations have been hit by the recession. Though their competitive positions remain as strong as ever, we have yet to see any bounce in these businesses. Pre-Tax Earnings (in millions) 2009 2008 Net investment income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Life and annuity operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Leasing operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Manufactured-housing finance (Clayton) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other income * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
$278 116 14 187 186 $330 23 87 206 141
$278 116 14 187 186 $330 23 87 206 141
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
投资和衍生品损益前的利润
Income before investment and derivatives gains or losses . . . . . . . . . . .
$781 $787
$781 $787
*包含伯克希尔因克莱顿使用其信用而收取的费用,2009 年为 1.16 亿美元,2008 年为 9,200 万美元。
*Includes $116 million in 2009 and $92 million in 2008 of fees that Berkshire charges Clayton for the use of Berkshire’s credit.
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2009 年底,我们成为伯卡迪亚商业抵押贷款公司(Berkadia Commercial Mortgage,原名 Capmark)的 50% 所有者。这家公司是全美第三大商业抵押贷款服务机构,除了管理一个 2,350 亿美元的资产组合外,还是重要的抵押贷款发起方,在全国设有 25 个办事处。尽管未来几年商业地产会面临重大难题,但伯卡迪亚的长期机遇相当可观。
At the end of 2009, we became a 50% owner of Berkadia Commercial Mortgage (formerly known as Capmark), the country’s third-largest servicer of commercial mortgages. In addition to servicing a $235 billion portfolio, the company is an important originator of mortgages, having 25 offices spread around the country. Though commercial real estate will face major problems in the next few years, long-term opportunities for Berkadia are significant.
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这次合作的伙伴是 Leucadia,由乔·斯坦伯格(Joe Steinberg)和伊恩·卡明(Ian Cumming)经营。几年前,伯克希尔曾与他们联手收购陷入困境的金融公司 Finova,那是一次极为愉快的合作。在解决那个问题时,乔和伊恩干的活远超他们分内的份额——这种安排我一向乐见其成。所以当他们打来电话,邀我再度携手收购 Capmark 时,我自然喜出望外。我们头一回合作的项目也叫 Berkadia,那这一回就叫“Berkadia 之子”吧。总有一天,我会在信里跟你们聊聊“Berkadia 之孙”。
Our partner in this operation is Leucadia, run by Joe Steinberg and Ian Cumming, with whom we had a terrific experience some years back when Berkshire joined with them to purchase Finova, a troubled finance business. In resolving that situation, Joe and Ian did far more than their share of the work, an arrangement I always encourage. Naturally, I was delighted when they called me to partner again in the Capmark purchase. Our first venture was also christened Berkadia. So let’s call this one Son of Berkadia. Someday I’ll be writing you about Grandson of Berkadia.
投资
Investments
下面列出的,是我们年底时市值超过 10 亿美元的普通股投资。
Below we show our common stock investments that at yearend had a market value of more than $1 billion.
股份
Shares
公司
Company
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
151,610,700 225,000,000 200,000,000 37,711,330 28,530,467 130,272,500 3,947,554 83,128,411 25,108,967 234,247,373 76,633,426 39,037,142 334,235,585
151,610,700 225,000,000 200,000,000 37,711,330 28,530,467 130,272,500 3,947,554 83,128,411 25,108,967 234,247,373 76,633,426 39,037,142 334,235,585
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
美国运通公司···········································比亚迪股份有限公司··························································可口可乐公司··············································康菲石油······················································强生公司·······················································卡夫食品公司
American Express Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BYD Company, Ltd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Coca-Cola Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ConocoPhillips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Johnson & Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kraft Foods Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
POSCO
POSCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
宝洁公司(The Procter & Gamble Company) 赛诺菲-安万特(Sanofi-Aventis) 乐购集团(Tesco plc) 美国合众银行(U.S. Bancorp) 沃尔玛公司(Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.) 富国银行(Wells Fargo & Company) 其他公司 按市值计算的普通股合计
The Procter & Gamble Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sanofi-Aventis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tesco plc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S. Bancorp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wells Fargo & Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total Common Stocks Carried at Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
12/31/09 持股比例 成本* 市值(百万美元)
12.7 $ 1,287 $ 6,143
9.9 $ 232 $ 1,986
8.6 $ 1,299 $ 11,400
2.5 $ 2,741 $ 1,926
1.0 $ 1,724 $ 1,838
8.8 $ 4,330 $ 3,541
5.2 $ 768 $ 2,092
2.9 $ 533 $ 5,040
1.9 $ 2,027 $ 1,979
3.0 $ 1,367 $ 1,620
4.0 $ 2,371 $ 1,725
1.0 $ 1,893 $ 2,087
6.5 $ 7,394 $ 9,021
$ 6,680 $ 8,636
$34,646
12/31/09 Percentage of Company Owned Cost * Market (in millions) 12.7 $ 1,287 $ 6,143 9.9 232 1,986 8.6 1,299 11,400 2.5 2,741 1,926 1.0 1,724 1,838 8.8 4,330 3,541 5.2 768 2,092 2.9 533 5,040 1.9 2,027 1,979 3.0 1,367 1,620 4.0 2,371 1,725 1.0 1,893 2,087 6.5 7,394 9,021 6,680 8,636 $34,646
$59,034
$59,034
以下是我们的实际买入价,也是我们的计税基础;因某些情况下按规定作了增记或减记,GAAP 口径的“成本”在少数几处会有所不同。此外,我们还持有陶氏化学、通用电气、高盛、瑞士再保险和箭牌的非公开交易证券,这五项持仓总成本 211 亿美元,账面价值 260 亿美元,都是我们过去 18 个月里买入的。撇开它们带给我们的巨大股权升值潜力不谈,单是股息和利息,每年就为我们贡献 21 亿美元。最后,年底我们持有 BNSF 铁路公司 76,777,029 股(占 22.5%),当时按每股 85.78 美元入账,此后这些股份已并入我们对整家公司的收购。2009 年,我们卖出最多的是康菲石油、穆迪、宝洁和强生(强生是在我们年内早些时候建仓之后才卖出的)。查理和我认为,这几只股票未来很可能都会涨得更高。我们在 2009 年初卖出一些股票,为收购陶氏和瑞士再保险筹集现金;年末又卖出另一些,为收购 BNSF 做准备。
*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. In addition, we own positions in non-traded securities of Dow Chemical, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Swiss Re and Wrigley with an aggregate cost of $21.1 billion and a carrying value of $26.0 billion. We purchased these five positions in the last 18 months. Setting aside the significant equity potential they provide us, these holdings deliver us an aggregate of $2.1 billion annually in dividends and interest. Finally, we owned 76,777,029 shares (22.5%) of BNSF at yearend, which we then carried at $85.78 per share, but which have subsequently been melded into our purchase of the entire company. In 2009, our largest sales were in ConocoPhillips, Moody’s, Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson (sales of the latter occurring after we had built our position earlier in the year). Charlie and I believe that all of these stocks will likely trade higher in the future. We made some sales early in 2009 to raise cash for our Dow and Swiss Re purchases and late in the year made other sales in anticipation of our BNSF purchase.
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去年我们告诉过各位,当时公司债和市政债市场处于极不寻常的状态,相对美国国债便宜得离谱。我们据此判断买进了一些,但本该出手更多才对。大机会难得一遇。天上下金子的时候,该拿桶去接,而不是拿顶针。2008 年初,我们手握 443 亿美元现金等价物,此后又留存了 170 亿美元经营利润;然而到 2009 年底,我们的现金已降至 306 亿美元(其中 80 亿美元指定用于收购 BNSF)。过去两年的乱局里,我们投下了大笔资金。对投资者而言,这是绝佳时机:恐惧的氛围,正是他们最好的朋友。那些非要等评论员一片乐观才肯出手的人,最终为这份毫无意义的安慰付出了高昂代价。归根结底,投资看的是两件事:你为一家企业付了多少钱——通过在股市买下它的一小块——以及这家企业在此后一二十年能赚多少钱。
We told you last year that very unusual conditions then existed in the corporate and municipal bond markets and that these securities were ridiculously cheap relative to U.S. Treasuries. We backed this view with some purchases, but I should have done far more. Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble. We entered 2008 with $44.3 billion of cash-equivalents, and we have since retained operating earnings of $17 billion. Nevertheless, at yearend 2009, our cash was down to $30.6 billion (with $8 billion earmarked for the BNSF acquisition). We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business – through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market – and what that business earns in the succeeding decade or two.
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去年我在致股东信里详尽谈过我们的衍生品合约,当时它们既惹争议,也遭误解。想重温那部分内容,请登录 www.berkshirehathaway.com。此后我们只调整了寥寥几个头寸:一些信用合约已经到期;约 10% 的股票看跌合约条款也有变动——到期日缩短、行权价大幅下调,而这些修改都没有涉及资金往来。
Last year I wrote extensively about our derivatives contracts, which were then the subject of both controversy and misunderstanding. For that discussion, please go to www.berkshirehathaway.com. We have since changed only a few of our positions. Some credit contracts have run off. The terms of about 10% of our equity put contracts have also changed: Maturities have been shortened and strike prices materially reduced. In these modifications, no money changed hands.
去年讨论中提到的几点值得重复强调:
A few points from last year’s discussion are worth repeating:
(1) 尽管算不上十拿九稳,但我预计这些合约在整个存续期内总体上会为我们带来利润,即便把它们提供的巨额浮存金所产生的投资收益剔除在外也是如此。我们的衍生品浮存金——不含前面提到的 620 亿美元保险浮存金——年底约为 63 亿美元。(2)我们的合约中,只有极少数会在任何情况下都要求我们缴纳抵押品。去年股市和信贷市场跌至谷底时,我们的缴纳额为 17 亿美元,只占所持衍生品相关浮存金的一小部分。顺带一提,即便我们真要缴抵押品,交出去的证券仍会继续为我们的账户生息。(3)最后,你们应有心理准备:这些合约的账面价值会剧烈起伏,足以极大地左右我们对外报告的季度利润,却丝毫不动我们的现金或投资持仓。2009 年的情形,正好印证了这一点。以下是去年计入我们财报的、衍生品估值带来的各季度税前盈亏:第 1、2、3、4 季度。
(1) Though it’s no sure thing, I expect our contracts in aggregate to deliver us a profit over their lifetime, even when investment income on the huge amount of float they provide us is excluded in the calculation. Our derivatives float – which is not included in the $62 billion of insurance float I described earlier – was about $6.3 billion at yearend. (2) Only a handful of our contracts require us to post collateral under any circumstances. At last year’s low point in the stock and credit markets, our posting requirement was $1.7 billion, a small fraction of the derivatives-related float we held. When we do post collateral, let me add, the securities we put up continue to earn money for our account. (3) Finally, you should expect large swings in the carrying value of these contracts, items that can affect our reported quarterly earnings in a huge way but that do not affect our cash or investment holdings. That thought certainly fit 2009’s circumstances. Here are the pre-tax quarterly gains and losses from derivatives valuations that were part of our reported earnings last year: Quarter 1 2 3 4
十亿美元计盈亏 (15.17) 23.57 17.32 10.52
$ Gain (Loss) in Billions (1.517) 2.357 1.732 1.052
正如我们此前解释过的,这般剧烈起伏,查理和我既不为之雀跃,也不为之烦忧。向各位汇报时,我们会一如既往地把这些数字单列出来(就像处理已实现投资损益那样),好让你们更清晰地看到旗下经营业务的盈利。我们对手里持有的这些衍生品合约十分满意:迄今,它们提供的浮存金已让我们获利颇丰;我们还预计,在合约存续期内会赚得更多投资收益。
As we’ve explained, these wild swings neither cheer nor bother Charlie and me. When we report to you, we will continue to separate out these figures (as we do realized investment gains and losses) so that you can more clearly view the earnings of our operating businesses. We are delighted that we hold the derivatives contracts that we do. To date we have significantly profited from the float they provide. We expect also to earn further investment income over the life of our contracts.
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长期以来,我们投资的衍生品合约,都是查理和我认为定价有误的,一如我们试图投资定价有误的股票和债券。事实上,早在 1998 年初,我们就首次向各位报告过持有此类合约。衍生品对参与者和整个社会所构成的危险——我们早已一再警告、其威力堪比炸药的危险——是在这些合约导致极端杠杆和 / 或极端交易对手风险时才会引爆。在伯克希尔,这类情况从未发生,将来也不会。让伯克希尔远离这类问题,是我的职责所在。查理和我坚信,CEO 绝不能把风险控制假手他人。这件事的分量实在太重。在伯克希尔,账上每一份衍生品合约都由我本人发起并监控,只有少数子公司(如中美能源)经营性相关合约、以及通用再保险那点收尾合约例外。伯克希尔若有朝一日惹上麻烦,那将是我的过错,绝不会是某个风险委员会或首席风险官判断失误所致。
We have long invested in derivatives contracts that Charlie and I think are mispriced, just as we try to invest in mispriced stocks and bonds. Indeed, we first reported to you that we held such contracts in early 1998. The dangers that derivatives pose for both participants and society – dangers of which we’ve long warned, and that can be dynamite – arise when these contracts lead to leverage and/or counterparty risk that is extreme. At Berkshire nothing like that has occurred – nor will it. It’s my job to keep Berkshire far away from such problems. Charlie and I believe that a CEO must not delegate risk control. It’s simply too important. At Berkshire, I both initiate and monitor every derivatives contract on our books, with the exception of operations-related contracts at a few of our subsidiaries, such as MidAmerican, and the minor runoff contracts at General Re. If Berkshire ever gets in trouble, it will be my fault. It will not be because of misjudgments made by a Risk Committee or Chief Risk Officer.
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在我看来,一家大型金融机构的董事会,若不坚称 CEO 必须对风险控制负全责,便属失职。若他不具备处理此事的胜任能力,就该另谋高就;若他最终在此事上失职——以致政府须随之出手注入资金或提供担保——则由此引发的财务后果,于他本人及其董事会,都应极为严厉。搞垮本国几家最大金融机构经营的,从来不是股东。然而,承受苦果的却一直是他们,在多数倒闭案例中,其持股价值被抹去 90% 甚至更多。仅过去两年最大的四场金融灾难,股东合计便损失了超过 5,000 亿美元。说这些所有者得到了“救助”,简直是对该词莫大的讽刺。反观那些垮掉公司的 CEO 和董事,却大多毫发无损。他们一手酿成的灾祸或许令其财富缩水,但他们仍然过着极为优渥的生活。真正需要改变的,是这些 CEO 和董事的行为:倘若他们的鲁莽既害了自家机构、也害了国家,他们便该付出沉重代价——一笔既不能由已被他们损害的公司报销、也无法靠保险赔付的代价。CEO 们,乃至许多董事,长久以来都受益于过于慷慨的财务“胡萝卜”;如今,他们的雇佣图景里也该配上几根有些分量的“大棒”了。一个难以忽视的真相(董事会的过热病)去年,我们的子公司以现金做了几笔小型“补强”收购,但与 BNSF 那笔重磅交易,需要发行约 95,000 股伯克希尔股票,相当于此前已发行在外股份的 6.1%。查理和我对发行伯克希尔股票的喜爱程度,大概就跟我们对准备结肠镜检查的期待差不多。我们如此厌恶的理由很简单:倘若我们连做梦都不会按当前市价把整个伯克希尔卖掉,那凭什么要在一桩合并中,以同样不合理的低价,通过发行股票来“卖掉”公司相当大的一块?在评估换股要约时,目标公司的股东很自然地关注那些将付给他们的收购方股票的市价。但他们同样期望,这宗交易能让他们换回自己所放弃股票的内在价值。倘若一个潜在收购方的股价低于其内在价值,买方就绝不可能在一宗纯换股交易里达成合乎理性的买卖。你根本无法做到用一只被低估的股票,去交换一只估值充分的股票,而不损及你的股东。不妨设想一下:A 公司和 B 公司规模相当,两家公司业务的内在价值均为每股 100 美元。但两家股票均按每股 80 美元交易。A 公司的 CEO,自信有余、头脑不足,提议以 1.25 股 A 公司股票换取 1 股 B 公司股票,并“正确”地告知其董事,B 公司每股价值 100 美元。但他不会解释的是,他所付出的东西,将让自家股东付出 125 美元的内在价值。倘若董事们的算术同样不灵光,交易因此完成,那么 B 公司的股东最终将持有 A、B 合并资产的 55.6%,而 A 公司股东将持有 44.4%。需指出的是,在这桩荒唐交易中,并非 A 公司人人皆输。其 CEO 如今掌管着一家规模为他原来地盘两倍的公司,而在这个世界里,规模往往与声望和薪酬挂钩。
In my view a board of directors of a huge financial institution is derelict if it does not insist that its CEO bear full responsibility for risk control. If he’s incapable of handling that job, he should look for other employment. And if he fails at it – with the government thereupon required to step in with funds or guarantees – the financial consequences for him and his board should be severe. It has not been shareholders who have botched the operations of some of our country’s largest financial institutions. Yet they have borne the burden, with 90% or more of the value of their holdings wiped out in most cases of failure. Collectively, they have lost more than $500 billion in just the four largest financial fiascos of the last two years. To say these owners have been “bailed-out” is to make a mockery of the term. The CEOs and directors of the failed companies, however, have largely gone unscathed. Their fortunes may have been diminished by the disasters they oversaw, but they still live in grand style. It is the behavior of these CEOs and directors that needs to be changed: If their institutions and the country are harmed by their recklessness, they should pay a heavy price – one not reimbursable by the companies they’ve damaged nor by insurance. CEOs and, in many cases, directors have long benefitted from oversized financial carrots; some meaningful sticks now need to be part of their employment picture as well. An Inconvenient Truth (Boardroom Overheating) Our subsidiaries made a few small “bolt-on” acquisitions last year for cash, but our blockbuster deal with BNSF required us to issue about 95,000 Berkshire shares that amounted to 6.1% of those previously outstanding. Charlie and I enjoy issuing Berkshire stock about as much as we relish prepping for a colonoscopy. The reason for our distaste is simple. If we wouldn’t dream of selling Berkshire in its entirety at the current market price, why in the world should we “sell” a significant part of the company at that same inadequate price by issuing our stock in a merger? In evaluating a stock-for-stock offer, shareholders of the target company quite understandably focus on the market price of the acquirer’s shares that are to be given them. But they also expect the transaction to deliver them the intrinsic value of their own shares – the ones they are giving up. If shares of a prospective acquirer are selling below their intrinsic value, it’s impossible for that buyer to make a sensible deal in an all-stock deal. You simply can’t exchange an undervalued stock for a fully-valued one without hurting your shareholders. Imagine, if you will, Company A and Company B, of equal size and both with businesses intrinsically worth $100 per share. Both of their stocks, however, sell for $80 per share. The CEO of A, long on confidence and short on smarts, offers 1 1⁄ 4 shares of A for each share of B, correctly telling his directors that B is worth $100 per share. He will neglect to explain, though, that what he is giving will cost his shareholders $125 in intrinsic value. If the directors are mathematically challenged as well, and a deal is therefore completed, the shareholders of B will end up owning 55.6% of A & B’s combined assets and A’s shareholders will own 44.4%. Not everyone at A, it should be noted, is a loser from this nonsensical transaction. Its CEO now runs a company twice as large as his original domain, in a world where size tends to correlate with both prestige and compensation.
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倘若收购方的股票被高估,那就是另一番情形了:将其用作交易对价,对收购方有利。正因如此,股市各个领域出现的泡沫,总会诱使那些狡猾的鼓吹者展开一连串的股票发行。从他们股票的市值来看,他们完全承受得起高价收购,因为他们实际上是在使用伪钞。时不时,市场上就会出现大量“以空气换资产”的收购,20 世纪 60 年代末便是这类骗术尤为不堪的时期。事实上,某些大公司就是这样建立起来的。(相关人等当然从不会公开承认正在发生之事的真相,尽管私下里不乏窃笑之声。)在我们收购 BNSF 一例中,出让股份的股东以每股 100 美元评估我们的要约是完全合理的。然而,我们的成本要更高些,因为那 100 美元中有 40% 是以我们的股票支付的,而查理和我相信这些股票的价值高于其市价。幸运的是,我们早已通过现金在市场上购入了大量 BNSF 股票。综上,我们的总成本中仅约 30% 是以伯克希尔股票支付的。最后,查理和我认定,用股票支付 30% 买价这一不利之处,已为此项收购赋予我们的机会所抵消——它让我们得以将 220 亿美元现金配置到一门我们看得懂、也乐于长期持有的生意上。它还有另一项优点:由我们信任并钦佩的马特·罗斯执掌。我们也乐见于未来多年能够按照合理的回报率,继续向它投入数十亿美元。但这最终决定是险险通过的:若我们当初必须动用更多股票才能完成收购,这宗交易实际上便毫无意义。我们就将付出多于所得。
If an acquirer’s stock is overvalued, it’s a different story: Using it as a currency works to the acquirer’s advantage. That’s why bubbles in various areas of the stock market have invariably led to serial issuances of stock by sly promoters. Going by the market value of their stock, they can afford to overpay because they are, in effect, using counterfeit money. Periodically, many air-for-assets acquisitions have taken place, the late 1960s having been a particularly obscene period for such chicanery. Indeed, certain large companies were built in this way. (No one involved, of course, ever publicly acknowledges the reality of what is going on, though there is plenty of private snickering.) In our BNSF acquisition, the selling shareholders quite properly evaluated our offer at $100 per share. The cost to us, however, was somewhat higher since 40% of the $100 was delivered in our shares, which Charlie and I believed to be worth more than their market value. Fortunately, we had long owned a substantial amount of BNSF stock that we purchased in the market for cash. All told, therefore, only about 30% of our cost overall was paid with Berkshire shares. In the end, Charlie and I decided that the disadvantage of paying 30% of the price through stock was offset by the opportunity the acquisition gave us to deploy $22 billion of cash in a business we understood and liked for the long term. It has the additional virtue of being run by Matt Rose, whom we trust and admire. We also like the prospect of investing additional billions over the years at reasonable rates of return. But the final decision was a close one. If we had needed to use more stock to make the acquisition, it would in fact have made no sense. We would have then been giving up more than we were getting.
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我出席过几十场审议收购的董事会会议,董事们往往听命于那些高薪聘请的投资银行家(难道还有别种银行家吗?)。无一例外,银行家们都会向董事会就被收购公司的价值提交一份详尽的评估,着重论证其为何价值远超市价。然而,在我超过五十年的董事会任职生涯中,我从未听到过投资银行家(或管理层!)讨论他们所付出对价的真实价值。当交易涉及发行收购方的股票时,他们就直接用市价来衡量成本。即便若换成讨论收购方自身被收购的要约,他们又将力辩收购方股价低得可怜——绝对反映不了其真实价值——他们也依然照此办理。当收购构想中的对价是股票,且董事们正听取某一顾问的意见时,在我看来,只有一条路能得到一场理性而平衡的讨论。董事会应当另聘请一位顾问,专门论证反对这项拟议收购的理由,其报酬则以交易告吹为前提。若无此猛药,我们关于使用顾问的忠告依旧是:“别问理发师你该不该理发。”
I have been in dozens of board meetings in which acquisitions have been deliberated, often with the directors being instructed by high-priced investment bankers (are there any other kind?). Invariably, the bankers give the board a detailed assessment of the value of the company being purchased, with emphasis on why it is worth far more than its market price. In more than fifty years of board memberships, however, never have I heard the investment bankers (or management!) discuss the true value of what is being given. When a deal involved the issuance of the acquirer’s stock, they simply used market value to measure the cost. They did this even though they would have argued that the acquirer’s stock price was woefully inadequate – absolutely no indicator of its real value – had a takeover bid for the acquirer instead been the subject up for discussion. When stock is the currency being contemplated in an acquisition and when directors are hearing from an advisor, it appears to me that there is only one way to get a rational and balanced discussion. Directors should hire a second advisor to make the case against the proposed acquisition, with its fee contingent on the deal not going through. Absent this drastic remedy, our recommendation in respect to the use of advisors remains: “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut.”
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我实在忍不住,要给各位讲一个很久以前的真事。我们持有过一家经营出色的大型银行的股票,几十年来它一直被法规禁止进行收购。后来法律修改了,这家银行立刻开始物色可能的收购对象。它的管理层——都是好人,也是称职的银行家——不出所料,开始表现得像一群刚发现异性的青春期少年。他们很快看上了一家规模小得多的银行,那家银行经营也不赖,在净资产收益率、息差、贷款质量等方面财务特征相似。我们那家银行股价不高(正因如此我们才买入),在账面价值附近徘徊,市盈率极低。可与此同时,那家小银行的老板正被本州其他几家大银行竞相追捧,执意咬定接近三倍账面价值的价格。而且,他要的是股票,不是现金。自然,我们这帮人缴械了,答应了这桩毁灭价值的交易。“我们得让人看到我们在参与竞逐。再说,这不过是笔小买卖,”他们说道,仿佛只有对股东造成重大伤害,才算得上叫停的正当理由。查理当时的反应是:“难道就因为有只吉娃娃、而不是圣伯纳犬,在咱家草坪上拉屎,我们就该鼓掌喝彩?”
I can’t resist telling you a true story from long ago. We owned stock in a large well-run bank that for decades had been statutorily prevented from acquisitions. Eventually, the law was changed and our bank immediately began looking for possible purchases. Its managers – fine people and able bankers – not unexpectedly began to behave like teenage boys who had just discovered girls. They soon focused on a much smaller bank, also well-run and having similar financial characteristics in such areas as return on equity, interest margin, loan quality, etc. Our bank sold at a modest price (that’s why we had bought into it), hovering near book value and possessing a very low price/earnings ratio. Alongside, though, the small-bank owner was being wooed by other large banks in the state and was holding out for a price close to three times book value. Moreover, he wanted stock, not cash. Naturally, our fellows caved in and agreed to this value-destroying deal. “We need to show that we are in the hunt. Besides, it’s only a small deal,” they said, as if only major harm to shareholders would have been a legitimate reason for holding back. Charlie’s reaction at the time: “Are we supposed to applaud because the dog that fouls our lawn is a Chihuahua rather than a Saint Bernard?”
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那家较小银行的卖家——绝非傻瓜——接着在谈判中抛出最后一项要求。“合并之后,”他大致是这么说的,措辞或许比我转述的更圆融,“我将会成为你们银行的大股东,这将占到我身家的极大一块。因此,你得向我保证,你们往后再也不会干这种蠢事了。”没错,合并还是完成了。小银行老板变得更富,我们变得更穷,而那家大银行的管理层——如今银行更大了——从此过上了幸福的生活。
The seller of the smaller bank – no fool – then delivered one final demand in his negotiations. “After the merger,” he in effect said, perhaps using words that were phrased more diplomatically than these, “I’m going to be a large shareholder of your bank, and it will represent a huge portion of my net worth. You have to promise me, therefore, that you’ll never again do a deal this dumb.” Yes, the merger went through. The owner of the small bank became richer, we became poorer, and the managers of the big bank – newly bigger – lived happily ever after.
股东大会
The Annual Meeting
据我们估计,去年到场参加股东大会的有 35,000 人(相比之下,1981 年只有 12 人——一个零都没漏)。股东队伍大幅扩容后,今年预计来的人会更多,因此常规流程得作些调整。不过,我们欢迎各位莅临的热忱丝毫不减。查理和我乐于和大家见面、回答你们的问题,而最开心的莫过于——你们从我们的生意里多多采购。今年的股东大会定在 5 月 1 日星期六。一如往常,Qwest 中心上午 7 点开门,8:30 放映一部全新的伯克希尔影片。9:30 我们直接进入问答环节,中途在 Qwest 的餐位歇一歇吃午饭,一直持续到下午 3:30。短暂休整后,查理和我将于 3:45 召开正式股东大会。若你想在白天的问答时段中途离场,请趁查理讲话时走(动作要快,他向来惜字如金)。当然,离场的最佳理由是去购物。为此,我们会把紧邻会场那座 194,300 平方英尺的大厅,塞满数十家伯克希尔子公司的商品。去年各位都尽了力,多数门店都创下销售纪录,可你们还能做得更好。(友情提醒:一旦让我发现销售落后,我可要没好气地把出口锁上。)GEICO 会设一个展位,由来自全国各地的多名资深顾问坐镇,随时为你提供车险报价。多数情况下,GEICO 都能给你一份股东折扣(通常是 8%)。在我们经营的 51 个司法辖区里,有 44 个允许这项优惠。(补充一点:若你已符合其他折扣,比如面向特定群体的优惠,这份折扣不能叠加。)带上你现有保单的明细,看看我们能否帮你省钱——我相信,至少有一半人省得下来。请务必逛逛 Bookworm 书摊。那里将陈列 30 多种图书和 DVD,其中包括我两个儿子的新作:霍华德的《脆弱》,一部满载世界各地艰辛人生的照片与随笔的影集;以及彼得的《人生由你打造》。为这套“家庭三部曲”收尾的,是我姐姐多丽丝的传记首度问世,重点讲述她非凡的慈善事业。还有讲述我搭档故事的《穷查理宝典》——这本书堪称出版界的一个奇迹:从不打广告,却年复一年在它的网站上卖出数千册。(若你买的书需要邮寄,附近备有快递服务。)无论你是出手阔绰的买家,还是纯粹凑热闹的看客,都不妨在星期六中午到下午 5 点,去奥马哈机场东侧的 Elliott Aviation 转转——那里停着一队 NetJets 飞机,保准让你心跳加速。随本报告附上的委托书材料中,有一份附件说明你如何领取入场所需的凭证,以便参加股东大会及其他活动。至于机票、酒店和租车预订,我们再次请来美国运通(800-799-6634)为你提供专门协助。负责此事的卡罗尔·佩德森年年都干得极为出色,我在此向她致谢。房间也许不好订,但只要找卡罗尔帮忙,你总能订到。
Our best guess is that 35,000 people attended the annual meeting last year (up from 12 – no zeros omitted – in 1981). With our shareholder population much expanded, we expect even more this year. Therefore, we will have to make a few changes in the usual routine. There will be no change, however, in our enthusiasm for having you attend. Charlie and I like to meet you, answer your questions and – best of all – have you buy lots of goods from our businesses. The meeting this year will be held on Saturday, May 1st. As always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m., and a new Berkshire movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30 we will go directly to the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. (Act fast; he can be terse.) The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do that by filling the 194,300-squarefoot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. But you can do better. (A friendly warning: If I find sales are lagging, I get testy and lock the exits.) GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least 50% of you, I believe we can. Be sure to visit the Bookworm. Among the more than 30 books and DVDs it will offer are two new books by my sons: Howard’s Fragile, a volume filled with photos and commentary about lives of struggle around the globe and Peter’s Life Is What You Make It. Completing the family trilogy will be the debut of my sister Doris’s biography, a story focusing on her remarkable philanthropic activities. Also available will be Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the story of my partner. This book is something of a publishing miracle – never advertised, yet year after year selling many thousands of copies from its Internet site. (Should you need to ship your book purchases, a nearby shipping service will be available.) If you are a big spender – or, for that matter, merely a gawker – visit Elliott Aviation on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5:00 p.m. on Saturday. There we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft that will get your pulse racing. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. Carol Pedersen, who handles these matters, does a terrific job for us each year, and I thank her for it. Hotel rooms can be hard to find, but work with Carol and you will get one.
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内布拉斯加家具城坐落在道奇街与太平洋街之间第 72 街的一块 77 英亩的地块上,我们将再度推出“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。要享受这份折扣,你须在 4 月 29 日(周四)至 5 月 3 日(周一)之间购物,并出示参会凭证。这段时间的特惠价,甚至适用于几家声名显赫、平日对打折向来铁律森严的制造商——它们为呼应我们的股东周末,破例给你开了绿灯,我们感谢它们的配合。家具城周一至周六上午 10 点营业至晚上 9 点,周日则是上午 10 点到下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5:30 到晚上 8 点,家具城还将举办一场“伯克镇烧烤会”,欢迎各位光临。在波仙珠宝,我们将再度举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是 4 月 30 日(周五)下午 6 点至晚上 10 点的鸡尾酒招待会;第二场是重头戏盛会,定于 5 月 2 日(周日)上午 9 点至下午 4 点举行。周六我们营业至下午 6 点。整个周末,波仙珠宝都会人潮汹涌,因此为方便你选购,股东特价将从 4 月 26 日(周一)一直持续到 5 月 8 日(周六)。这期间,请出示参会凭证,或能证明你持有伯克希尔股票的券商对账单,以表明股东身份。进店时戴着水钻,出店时便是钻石。我女儿告诉我,买得越多,省得越多(童言无忌,什么都敢说)。周日,在波仙珠宝外的商场里,两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫将蒙上双眼,以六人一组的方式,迎战所有睁大眼睛前来挑战的人;一旁,来自达拉斯的神奇魔术师诺曼·贝克将令围观者叹为观止。今年为股东准备的特别节目,是我的朋友、全美排名第一的少年乒乓球选手艾莉尔·辛的回归(她很有希望某天在奥运会上夺金)。艾莉尔今年 14 岁,四年前来参加年会时,把所有挑战者杀得片甲不留,我也在内。(你可以在 YouTube 上目睹我惨败的一幕,搜“Ariel Hsing Berkshire”即可。)我自然一直谋划着卷土重来,周日下午 1 点将在波仙珠宝外与她再战。这是一场三球定胜负的较量,等我把她“热”开之后,欢迎所有股东上前,来一场同样的三球赛碰碰运气,胜者可得一盒喜诗糖果。器材我们备好,但你若觉得自带球拍管用,尽管带来。(其实没用。)5 月 2 日(周日),高瑞餐厅将再次只为伯克希尔股东开放,从下午 1 点营业到晚上 10 点。不过去年,它被汹涌的客流挤得应接不暇。预计今年就餐人数更多,我已请我的朋友、经营我另一家心头好餐厅皮克洛的唐娜·希恩,周日也为股东们供餐。(皮克洛那杯超大号根汁汽水冰淇淋,是每一位美食行家的必点。)我打算两家都去:整个周末的热闹让我饿得慌,而且每家我都有心爱的菜。切记:要订高瑞餐厅,请于 4 月 1 日(不得提前)拨打 402-551-3733;订皮克洛请拨 402-342-9038。很遗憾,今年我们无法为国际来宾举办招待会了。去年人数涨到约 800,光是逐人签一件东西,我就花了大约两个半小时。既然预计今年国际来宾还会更多,查理和我只得忍痛取消这一环节。但请放心,我们欢迎每一位远道而来的国际朋友。去年,我们改了股东大会提问的遴选办法,收到数十封来信为这一新安排叫好。因此,今年我们仍请那三位财经记者主持问答,由他们向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件递交的问题。
At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Thursday, April 29th and Monday, May 3rd inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a Berkyville BBQ to which you are all invited. At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, April 30th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 2nd, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 26th through Saturday, May 8th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder. Enter with rhinestones; leave with diamonds. My daughter tells me that the more you buy, the more you save (kids say the darnedest things). On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Our special treat for shareholders this year will be the return of my friend, Ariel Hsing, the country’s top-ranked junior table tennis player (and a good bet to win at the Olympics some day). Now 14, Ariel came to the annual meeting four years ago and demolished all comers, including me. (You can witness my humiliating defeat on YouTube; just type in Ariel Hsing Berkshire.) Naturally, I’ve been plotting a comeback and will take her on outside of Borsheims at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday. It will be a three-point match, and after I soften her up, all shareholders are invited to try their luck at similar three-point contests. Winners will be given a box of See’s candy. We will have equipment available, but bring your own paddle if you think it will help. (It won’t.) Gorat’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 2nd, and will be serving from 1 p.m. until 10 p.m. Last year, though, it was overwhelmed by demand. With many more diners expected this year, I’ve asked my friend, Donna Sheehan, at Piccolo’s – another favorite restaurant of mine – to serve shareholders on Sunday as well. (Piccolo’s giant root beer float is mandatory for any fan of fine dining.) I plan to eat at both restaurants: All of the weekend action makes me really hungry, and I have favorite dishes at each spot. Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and at Piccolo’s call 402-342-9038. Regrettably, we will not be able to have a reception for international visitors this year. Our count grew to about 800 last year, and my simply signing one item per person took about 2 1⁄ 2 hours. Since we expect even more international visitors this year, Charlie and I decided we must drop this function. But be assured, we welcome every international visitor who comes. Last year we changed our method of determining what questions would be asked at the meeting and received many dozens of letters applauding the new arrangement. We will therefore again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail.
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记者及其邮箱如下:《财富》杂志卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis),邮箱 [email protected];CNBC 贝基·奎克(Becky Quick),邮箱 [email protected];以及《纽约时报》安德鲁·罗斯·索金(Andrew Ross Sorkin),邮箱 [email protected]。从所收到的提问中,每位记者将各自筛选出其认为最有趣、最重要的十几个问题。记者们告诉我,如果你把问题写得简明扼要、每封邮件不超过两个问题,最有机会入选。(请在邮件中告知记者:若问题被选中,是否希望提及你的姓名。)查理和我对将要问到什么问题,连一丁点儿提示都不会提前知道。我们知道记者会挑一些棘手的,而我们正喜欢这样。周六早上 8:15,我们仍会在 13 个麦克风前分别抽签,给想亲自发问的股东机会。会上,我会把记者的问题与中签股东的问题交替穿插。我们为问答环节增加了 30 分钟,大概每组各能回答约 30 个问题。
The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be e-mailed at [email protected]; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at [email protected], and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at [email protected]. From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the dozen or so he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them. (In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.) Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists will pick some tough ones and that’s the way we like it. We will again have a drawing at 8:15 on Saturday at each of 13 microphones for those shareholders wishing to ask questions themselves. At the meeting, I will alternate the questions asked by the journalists with those from the winning shareholders. We’ve added 30 minutes to the question time and will probably have time for about 30 questions from each group.
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查理 86 岁,我 79 岁,我俩的运气依然好得连做梦都不敢想。我们生在美国;拥有出色的父母,他们让我们接受了良好教育;享有美满的家庭和强健的体魄;还天生带着一种“商业”基因,使我们获得富足的方式,与许多为增进社会福祉贡献相当甚至更多的人所得到的回报,远远不成比例。此外,我们长久以来做着热爱的工作,并有幸处处得到才华横溢又快乐热忱的同事相助。说真的,这些年来我们的工作越干越有滋味,难怪我们都是跳着踢踏舞去上班的。如果非要说,我们宁愿心甘情愿付一大笔钱来保住这份工作(请别告诉薪酬委员会)。但没有什么比在伯克希尔股东大会上与我们的股东合伙人相聚更快乐的事了。所以,请于 5 月 1 日来 Qwest 中心,参加我们一年一度的“资本家伍德斯托克”音乐节。届时见。2010 年 2 月 26 日
At 86 and 79, Charlie and I remain lucky beyond our dreams. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to that experienced by many people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. Indeed, over the years, our work has become ever more fascinating; no wonder we tap-dance to work. If pushed, we would gladly pay substantial sums to have our jobs (but don’t tell the Comp Committee). Nothing, however, is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on May 1st at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. We’ll see you there. February 26, 2010
沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board
附言:坐火车来吧。
P.S. Come by rail.
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