2010 年致股东信
伯克希尔公司业绩表现与标普 500 指数对比
Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500
| 伯克希尔每股账面价值变动 | 标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化 | 相对结果 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 年度 | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (11.7) | 32.0 |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 30.9 | (19.9) |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | (8.4) | 24.6 |
| 1970 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 18.9 | 2.8 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (14.8) | 19.5 |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (26.4) | 31.9 |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 37.2 | (15.3) |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 23.6 | 35.7 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | (7.4) | 39.3 |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 17.6 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 17.5 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.3 | (13.0) |
| 1981 | 31.4 | (5.0) | 36.4 |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 22.4 | 9.9 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 31.6 | 16.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 7.5 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 14.4 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 31.7 | 12.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (3.1) | 10.5 |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 37.6 | 5.5 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 23.0 | 8.8 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 33.4 | .7 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 28.6 | 19.7 |
| 1999 | .5 | 21.0 | (20.5) |
| 2000 | 6.5 | (9.1) | 15.6 |
| 2001 | (6.2) | (11.9) | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (22.1) | 32.1 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 28.7 | (7.7) |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 10.9 | (.4) |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 2008 | (9.6) | (37.0) | 27.4 |
| 2009 | 19.8 | 26.5 | (6.7) |
| 2010 | 13.0 | 15.1 | (2.1) |
| 复合年化收益率 – 1965-2010 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8 |
| 整体收益——1964-2010 | 490,409% | 6,262% |
| in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire | Annual Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends Included | Relative Results | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965 | 23.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (11.7) | 32.0 |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 30.9 | (19.9) |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | (8.4) | 24.6 |
| 1970 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 8.1 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 1.8 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 18.9 | 2.8 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (14.8) | 19.5 |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (26.4) | 31.9 |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 37.2 | (15.3) |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 23.6 | 35.7 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | (7.4) | 39.3 |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 6.4 | 17.6 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 18.2 | 17.5 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.3 | (13.0) |
| 1981 | 31.4 | (5.0) | 36.4 |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 21.4 | 18.6 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 22.4 | 9.9 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 31.6 | 16.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 18.6 | 7.5 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 5.1 | 14.4 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 16.6 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 31.7 | 12.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (3.1) | 10.5 |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 30.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 12.7 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.6 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 37.6 | 5.5 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 23.0 | 8.8 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 33.4 | .7 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 28.6 | 19.7 |
| 1999 | .5 | 21.0 | (20.5) |
| 2000 | 6.5 | (9.1) | 15.6 |
| 2001 | (6.2) | (11.9) | 5.7 |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (22.1) | 32.1 |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 28.7 | (7.7) |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 10.9 | (.4) |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 15.8 | 2.6 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| 2008 | (9.6) | (37.0) | 27.4 |
| 2009 | 19.8 | 26.5 | (6.7) |
| 2010 | 13.0 | 15.1 | (2.1) |
| Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2010 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.8 |
| Overall Gain – 1964-2010 | 490,409% | 6,262% |
注释:数据按日历年度统计,但以下年份例外:1965 年和 1966 年,截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年,为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。从 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司将其持有的权益证券按市值计价,而此前的要求是成本与市价孰低法。在本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年及之前的业绩已按变更后的规则重新列示。在所有其他方面,结果均采用最初报告的数据计算。标普 500 指数数据为税前,而伯克希尔的数据为税后。如果一家像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普 500 指数并计提相应的税费,那么在指数显示正回报的年份,其业绩会落后于标普 500 指数;而在指数显示负回报的年份,其业绩则会超过标普 500 指数。多年下来,税收成本会导致累计落后的幅度相当大。
Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.
2
2
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
我们 A 股和 B 股的每股账面价值在 2010 年都增长了 13%。过去 46 年——也就是现任管理层接手以来——账面价值从 19 美元增长到 95,453 美元,年复合增长率为 20.2%。* 2010 年最大的亮点,是我们收购了伯灵顿北方圣塔菲铁路公司(BNSF),这笔交易的效果比我预期的还要好。现在看来,拥有这家铁路公司,能把伯克希尔的“正常”盈利能力税前提高近 40%、税后提高 30% 以上。这次收购使我们的股份增加了 6%,动用了 220 亿美元现金;由于我们很快就补回了这笔现金,这桩买卖的经济账算下来相当漂亮。当然,所谓“正常年份”究竟是什么样子,无论是查理·芒格(伯克希尔副董事长、我的合伙人)还是我,都无法给出精确的定义。但为了估算当前的盈利能力,我们设想的是这样一年:保险业务没有发生巨灾,整体商业环境比 2010 年略好,却又比 2005 或 2006 年差一些。基于这些假设,再加上我将在“投资”一节里解释的其他几项,我可以估算出,我们目前所持资产的正常盈利能力约为税前 170 亿美元、税后 120 亿美元,这还不含任何资本利得或损失。我和查理每天都在琢磨,如何在这个基础上更进一步。我们对 BNSF 的前景充满信心,因为相对于它的主要对手卡车运输,铁路在成本和环保上都占尽优势。去年,BNSF 每消耗一加仑柴油,就把每吨货物平均运送了创纪录的 500 英里,燃油效率是卡车的三倍——这意味着我们的铁路在运营成本上握有一张重要的牌。与此同时,国家也因此受益:温室气体排放减少了,对进口石油的依赖也大大降低。货物走铁路,整个社会都得利。随着时间推移,美国境内的货运量还会增长,BNSF 理应从中拿到属于自己的那一份。铁路要实现这样的增长,必须投入巨资,而论供应这笔资金的能力,没有谁比伯克希尔更有底气。无论经济多么低迷、市场多么混乱,我们开出的支票都能兑现。去年,在对经济的普遍悲观情绪中,我们用行动表明了伯克希尔对资本投资的热情——在物业、厂房和设备上花了 60 亿美元,其中 54 亿美元(占 90%)投在美国。诚然,未来我们的业务会向海外扩张,但绝大部分投资仍将留在国内。2011 年,我们将创下资本支出的新纪录——80 亿美元,而新增的 20 亿美元将全部投在美国。资金总是流向机会,而美国遍地都是机会。如今评论家们总爱把“巨大的不确定性”挂在嘴边。可回头想想 1941 年 12 月 6 日、1987 年 10 月 18 日、2001 年 9 月 10 日吧。今天再怎么平静,明天永远是未知数。
- 本报告中所用的一切每股数据均针对伯克希尔的 A 股。B 股的对应数据,是上述 A 股数字的 1/1500。
The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 13% in 2010. Over the last 46 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $95,453, a rate of 20.2% compounded annually.* The highlight of 2010 was our acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe, a purchase that’s working out even better than I expected. It now appears that owning this railroad will increase Berkshire’s “normal” earning power by nearly 40% pre-tax and by well over 30% after-tax. Making this purchase increased our share count by 6% and used $22 billion of cash. Since we’ve quickly replenished the cash, the economics of this transaction have turned out very well. A “normal year,” of course, is not something that either Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire and my partner, or I can define with anything like precision. But for the purpose of estimating our current earning power, we are envisioning a year free of a mega-catastrophe in insurance and possessing a general business climate somewhat better than that of 2010 but weaker than that of 2005 or 2006. Using these assumptions, and several others that I will explain in the “Investment” section, I can estimate that the normal earning power of the assets we currently own is about $17 billion pre-tax and $12 billion after-tax, excluding any capital gains or losses. Every day Charlie and I think about how we can build on this base. Both of us are enthusiastic about BNSF’s future because railroads have major cost and environmental advantages over trucking, their main competitor. Last year BNSF moved each ton of freight it carried a record 500 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. That’s three times more fuel-efficient than trucking is, which means our railroad owns an important advantage in operating costs. Concurrently, our country gains because of reduced greenhouse emissions and a much smaller need for imported oil. When traffic travels by rail, society benefits. Over time, the movement of goods in the United States will increase, and BNSF should get its full share of the gain. The railroad will need to invest massively to bring about this growth, but no one is better situated than Berkshire to supply the funds required. However slow the economy, or chaotic the markets, our checks will clear. Last year – in the face of widespread pessimism about our economy – we demonstrated our enthusiasm for capital investment at Berkshire by spending $6 billion on property and equipment. Of this amount, $5.4 billion – or 90% of the total – was spent in the United States. Certainly our businesses will expand abroad in the future, but an overwhelming part of their future investments will be at home. In 2011, we will set a new record for capital spending – $8 billion – and spend all of the $2 billion increase in the United States. Money will always flow toward opportunity, and there is an abundance of that in America. Commentators today often talk of “great uncertainty.” But think back, for example, to December 6, 1941, October 18, 1987 and September 10, 2001. No matter how serene today may be, tomorrow is always uncertain. * All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A. 3
别被这个现实吓住。在我的一生中,政客和评论家们从未停止过对美国面临的可怕问题怨声载道。然而,如今我们公民的生活水平比我出生时好了惊人的六倍。那些末日预言家们忽略了一个至关重要的、确定无疑的因素:人类的潜能远未耗尽,而美国释放这些潜能的制度——这套制度在两个多世纪里创造了奇迹,尽管时常被衰退乃至一场内战打断——至今依然充满活力且行之有效。我们并不比建国时的先辈天生更聪明,工作也不比他们更努力。但环顾你的四周,你会看到一个超越了任何殖民地时代居民梦想的世界。今天,正如 1776 年、1861 年、1932 年和 1941 年一样,美国最好的日子仍在前方。
Don’t let that reality spook you. Throughout my lifetime, politicians and pundits have constantly moaned about terrifying problems facing America. Yet our citizens now live an astonishing six times better than when I was born. The prophets of doom have overlooked the all-important factor that is certain: Human potential is far from exhausted, and the American system for unleashing that potential – a system that has worked wonders for over two centuries despite frequent interruptions for recessions and even a Civil War – remains alive and effective. We are not natively smarter than we were when our country was founded nor do we work harder. But look around you and see a world beyond the dreams of any colonial citizen. Now, as in 1776, 1861, 1932 and 1941, America’s best days lie ahead.
业绩表现
Performance
查理和我认为,那些受人之托管理他人资金的人,在其受托之初就应该确立业绩目标。缺少了这样的标准,管理层便容易先把业绩之箭射出去,然后不管它落在哪里,都围着落点画上个靶心。就伯克希尔而言,我们很早就告诉过各位,我们的工作是使每股内在价值的增速超过标普 500 指数(含股息)的涨幅。有些年份我们做到了,有些年份则没有。但是,如果长此以往我们都无法达成这一目标,那我们就没有为投资者做成任何事,因为他们自己买入一只指数基金,也能实现同等甚至更好的回报。当然,挑战在于内在价值的计算。把这项任务分别交给查理和我,你会得到两个不同的答案。精确根本不可能做到。因此,为消除主观性,我们在衡量自身表现时,采用一个较为保守的内在价值替代指标——账面价值。诚然,我们有些业务的价值远超它们在我们账面上的记账价值。(本报告稍后会给出一个案例。)但既然这一溢价很少年复一年地大幅波动,账面价值便可以作为一个合理的工具,用来跟踪我们的表现。第 2 页的表格展示了我们与标普 500 指数对比的 46 年记录,早年的业绩相当出色,现在则只能算令人满意。我们想强调的是,那些丰收的年头永远不会再回来了。我们目前管理的巨额资本,消除了取得超凡表现的一切可能。不过,我们仍会力争取得优于平均水平的业绩,并且觉得各位用这个标准来要求我们是公平的。需要指出的是,年度数字既不应被忽视,也不应被视为一切。地球绕太阳公转的节奏,与投资构想或经营决策结出果实所需要的时间并不同步。例如,在 GEICO,我们去年兴致勃勃地投入了 9 亿美元做广告,以获取那些不会立即给我们带来利润的保单客户。如果能把金额翻一倍并高效地花出去,我们会很乐意这么做,即便短期业绩会因此受到更大拖累。我们在铁路和公用事业业务中的许多大额投资,也是着眼于很久以后的回报。为了让各位能以更长远的视角来看待业绩,我们在对页将第 2 页的年度数据重新编排为一系列五年期。总共有 42 个这样的五年期,它们讲述了一个有意思的故事。从相对比较来看,我们表现最好的年份结束于 80 年代初。而市场的黄金时期则出现在随后的 17 年里,期间伯克希尔取得了极为亮眼的绝对回报,尽管我们的相对优势在收窄。1999 年之后,市场陷入停滞(或者你早已注意到了?)。因此,伯克希尔自那时以来相对标普 500 指数的表现虽令人满意,却只带来了平平的绝对回报。展望未来,我们希望能平均每年跑赢标普 500 指数几个点——尽管这个结果当然远非板上钉钉。如果我们成功达成了这个目标,那么在股市糟糕的年份,我们几乎肯定会取得更好的相对表现,而在市场强劲的年份,我们的相对表现则会逊色一些。
Charlie and I believe that those entrusted with handling the funds of others should establish performance goals at the onset of their stewardship. Lacking such standards, managements are tempted to shoot the arrow of performance and then paint the bull’s-eye around wherever it lands. In Berkshire’s case, we long ago told you that our job is to increase per-share intrinsic value at a rate greater than the increase (including dividends) of the S&P 500. In some years we succeed; in others we fail. But, if we are unable over time to reach that goal, we have done nothing for our investors, who by themselves could have realized an equal or better result by owning an index fund. The challenge, of course, is the calculation of intrinsic value. Present that task to Charlie and me separately, and you will get two different answers. Precision just isn’t possible. To eliminate subjectivity, we therefore use an understated proxy for intrinsic-value – book value – when measuring our performance. To be sure, some of our businesses are worth far more than their carrying value on our books. (Later in this report, we’ll present a case study.) But since that premium seldom swings wildly from year to year, book value can serve as a reasonable device for tracking how we are doing. The table on page 2 shows our 46-year record against the S&P, a performance quite good in the earlier years and now only satisfactory. The bountiful years, we want to emphasize, will never return. The huge sums of capital we currently manage eliminate any chance of exceptional performance. We will strive, however, for better-than-average results and feel it fair for you to hold us to that standard. Yearly figures, it should be noted, are neither to be ignored nor viewed as all-important. The pace of the earth’s movement around the sun is not synchronized with the time required for either investment ideas or operating decisions to bear fruit. At GEICO, for example, we enthusiastically spent $900 million last year on advertising to obtain policyholders who deliver us no immediate profits. If we could spend twice that amount productively, we would happily do so though short-term results would be further penalized. Many large investments at our railroad and utility operations are also made with an eye to payoffs well down the road. To provide you a longer-term perspective on performance, we present on the facing page the yearly figures from page 2 recast into a series of five-year periods. Overall, there are 42 of these periods, and they tell an interesting story. On a comparative basis, our best years ended in the early 1980s. The market’s golden period, however, came in the 17 following years, with Berkshire achieving stellar absolute returns even as our relative advantage narrowed. After 1999, the market stalled (or have you already noticed that?). Consequently, the satisfactory performance relative to the S&P that Berkshire has achieved since then has delivered only moderate absolute results. Looking forward, we hope to average several points better than the S&P – though that result is, of course, far from a sure thing. If we succeed in that aim, we will almost certainly produce better relative results in bad years for the stock market and suffer poorer results in strong markets. 4
伯克希尔公司业绩与标普 500 指数的五年期对比
每股账面价值 标普 500 指数(含股息)
年度变化百分比 年度变化百分比
(1) (2)
Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500 by Five-Year Periods Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Book Value of with Dividends Berkshire Included (1) (2)
| 伯克希尔每股账面价值变动 | 标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化 | 相对结果 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 五年期间 | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965-1969 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 12.2 |
| 1966-1970 | 14.7 | 3.9 | 10.8 |
| 1967-1971 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 |
| 1968-1972 | 16.8 | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| 1969-1973 | 17.7 | 2.0 | 15.7 |
| 1970-1974 | 15.0 | (2.4) | 17.4 |
| 1971-1975 | 13.9 | 3.2 | 10.7 |
| 1972-1976 | 20.8 | 4.9 | 15.9 |
| 1973-1977 | 23.4 | (0.2) | 23.6 |
| 1974-1978 | 24.4 | 4.3 | 20.1 |
| 1975-1979 | 30.1 | 14.7 | 15.4 |
| 1976-1980 | 33.4 | 13.9 | 19.5 |
| 1977-1981 | 29.0 | 8.1 | 20.9 |
| 1978-1982 | 29.9 | 14.1 | 15.8 |
| 1979-1983 | 31.6 | 17.3 | 14.3 |
| 1980-1984 | 27.0 | 14.8 | 12.2 |
| 1981-1985 | 32.6 | 14.6 | 18.0 |
| 1982-1986 | 31.5 | 19.8 | 11.7 |
| 1983-1987 | 27.4 | 16.4 | 11.0 |
| 1984-1988 | 25.0 | 15.2 | 9.8 |
| 1985-1989 | 31.1 | 20.3 | 10.8 |
| 1986-1990 | 22.9 | 13.1 | 9.8 |
| 1987-1991 | 25.4 | 15.3 | 10.1 |
| 1988-1992 | 25.6 | 15.8 | 9.8 |
| 1989-1993 | 24.4 | 14.5 | 9.9 |
| 1990-1994 | 18.6 | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| 1991-1995 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992-1996 | 24.2 | 15.2 | 9.0 |
| 1993-1997 | 26.9 | 20.2 | 6.7 |
| 1994-1998 | 33.7 | 24.0 | 9.7 |
| 1995-1999 | 30.4 | 28.5 | 1.9 |
| 1996-2000 | 22.9 | 18.3 | 4.6 |
| 1997-2001 | 14.8 | 10.7 | 4.1 |
| 1998-2002 | 10.4 | (0.6) | 11.0 |
| 1999-2003 | 6.0 | (0.6) | 6.6 |
| 2000-2004 | 8.0 | (2.3) | 10.3 |
| 2001-2005 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 7.4 |
| 2002-2006 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| 2003-2007 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 0.5 |
| 2004-2008 | 6.9 | (2.2) | 9.1 |
| 2005-2009 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 8.2 |
| 2006-2010 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 7.7 |
| in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire | Annual Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends Included | Relative Results | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Five-Year Period | (1) | (2) | (1)-(2) |
| 1965-1969 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 12.2 |
| 1966-1970 | 14.7 | 3.9 | 10.8 |
| 1967-1971 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 |
| 1968-1972 | 16.8 | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| 1969-1973 | 17.7 | 2.0 | 15.7 |
| 1970-1974 | 15.0 | (2.4) | 17.4 |
| 1971-1975 | 13.9 | 3.2 | 10.7 |
| 1972-1976 | 20.8 | 4.9 | 15.9 |
| 1973-1977 | 23.4 | (0.2) | 23.6 |
| 1974-1978 | 24.4 | 4.3 | 20.1 |
| 1975-1979 | 30.1 | 14.7 | 15.4 |
| 1976-1980 | 33.4 | 13.9 | 19.5 |
| 1977-1981 | 29.0 | 8.1 | 20.9 |
| 1978-1982 | 29.9 | 14.1 | 15.8 |
| 1979-1983 | 31.6 | 17.3 | 14.3 |
| 1980-1984 | 27.0 | 14.8 | 12.2 |
| 1981-1985 | 32.6 | 14.6 | 18.0 |
| 1982-1986 | 31.5 | 19.8 | 11.7 |
| 1983-1987 | 27.4 | 16.4 | 11.0 |
| 1984-1988 | 25.0 | 15.2 | 9.8 |
| 1985-1989 | 31.1 | 20.3 | 10.8 |
| 1986-1990 | 22.9 | 13.1 | 9.8 |
| 1987-1991 | 25.4 | 15.3 | 10.1 |
| 1988-1992 | 25.6 | 15.8 | 9.8 |
| 1989-1993 | 24.4 | 14.5 | 9.9 |
| 1990-1994 | 18.6 | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| 1991-1995 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 9.1 |
| 1992-1996 | 24.2 | 15.2 | 9.0 |
| 1993-1997 | 26.9 | 20.2 | 6.7 |
| 1994-1998 | 33.7 | 24.0 | 9.7 |
| 1995-1999 | 30.4 | 28.5 | 1.9 |
| 1996-2000 | 22.9 | 18.3 | 4.6 |
| 1997-2001 | 14.8 | 10.7 | 4.1 |
| 1998-2002 | 10.4 | (0.6) | 11.0 |
| 1999-2003 | 6.0 | (0.6) | 6.6 |
| 2000-2004 | 8.0 | (2.3) | 10.3 |
| 2001-2005 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 7.4 |
| 2002-2006 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| 2003-2007 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 0.5 |
| 2004-2008 | 6.9 | (2.2) | 9.1 |
| 2005-2009 | 8.6 | 0.4 | 8.2 |
| 2006-2010 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 7.7 |
注释:前两个期间涵盖自前一年 9 月 30 日起的五年。第三个期间涵盖自 1966 年 9 月 30 日至 1971 年 12 月 31 日的 63 个月。其余所有期间均按日历年度计算。第 2 页的其他注释也适用于本表。
Notes: The first two periods cover the five years beginning September 30 of the previous year. The third period covers 63 months beginning September 30, 1966 to December 31, 1971. All other periods involve calendar years. The other notes on page 2 also apply to this table.
5
5
内在价值——今日与未来
伯克希尔的内在价值虽无法精确计算,但三大关键支柱中有两项是可以衡量的。查理和我自己对伯克希尔进行估值时,也高度依赖这两项指标。
价值的第一项组成部分,是我们的投资:股票、债券和现金等价物。年末时,这些投资按市值计共 1,580 亿美元。
保险浮存金——即我们在保险业务中暂时持有、但不属于我们的钱——为其中 660 亿美元的投资提供了资金来源。只要保险承保做到盈亏平衡,也就是所收保费等于发生的损失和费用,这笔浮存金就是“免费”的。当然,承保业绩波动很大,在盈利与亏损之间忽高忽低,无规律可言。不过,纵观我们的整个历史,承保端总体利润显著,而我也预期未来平均能实现盈亏平衡或更好。若能如此,那么我们所有的投资——无论是来自浮存金还是留存收益——都可以视为伯克希尔股东所持价值的一部分。
伯克希尔价值的第二项组成部分,是来自投资和保险承保之外的收益。这些收益由我们旗下的 68 家非保险公司贡献,具体公司见第 106 页。在伯克希尔早年,我们将重点放在投资端。然而,过去二十年间,我们越来越着重于发展非保险业务的盈利,这一做法今后仍会继续。
以下表格展示了这一转变。第一张表以十年为间隔,列出了从 1970 年起算的每股投资额;1970 年是我们进入保险业三年之后。该数值已剔除归属于少数股东的投资部分。
Intrinsic Value – Today and Tomorrow Though Berkshire’s intrinsic value cannot be precisely calculated, two of its three key pillars can be measured. Charlie and I rely heavily on these measurements when we make our own estimates of Berkshire’s value. The first component of value is our investments: stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. At yearend these totaled $158 billion at market value. Insurance float – money we temporarily hold in our insurance operations that does not belong to us – funds $66 billion of our investments. This float is “free” as long as insurance underwriting breaks even, meaning that the premiums we receive equal the losses and expenses we incur. Of course, underwriting results are volatile, swinging erratically between profits and losses. Over our entire history, though, we’ve been significantly profitable, and I also expect us to average breakeven results or better in the future. If we do that, all of our investments – those funded both by float and by retained earnings – can be viewed as an element of value for Berkshire shareholders. Berkshire’s second component of value is earnings that come from sources other than investments and insurance underwriting. These earnings are delivered by our 68 non-insurance companies, itemized on page 106. In Berkshire’s early years, we focused on the investment side. During the past two decades, however, we’ve increasingly emphasized the development of earnings from non-insurance businesses, a practice that will continue. The following tables illustrate this shift. In the first table, we present per-share investments at decade intervals beginning in 1970, three years after we entered the insurance business. We exclude those investments applicable to minority interests.
每股
Per-Share
投资额
Investments
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1970 年末 1980 年 1990 年 2000 年 2010 年
Yearend 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66 754 7,798 50,229 94,730
66 754 7,798 50,229 94,730
期间
Period
每股投资额年复合增长率
Compounded Annual Increase in Per-Share Investments
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 27.5% 26.3% 20.5% 6.6%
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 27.5% 26.3% 20.5% 6.6%
$
$
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
尽管过去 40 年间,我们每股投资额的年复合增长率达到颇为可观的 19.9%,但随着我们将资金日益集中在收购全资运营企业上,这一增长率已大幅放缓。
这一转向的回报体现在下表中,该表同样以每股为口径并剔除了相应少数股东权益,列示了我们非保险业务的盈利增长。
年份 1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Though our compounded annual increase in per-share investments was a healthy 19.9% over the 40-year period, our rate of increase has slowed sharply as we have focused on using funds to buy operating businesses. The payoff from this shift is shown in the following table, which illustrates how earnings of our non-insurance businesses have increased, again on a per-share basis and after applicable minority interests. Year 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . .
每股税前收益 (美元)
Per-Share Pre-Tax Earnings $
2.87 19.01 102.58 918.66 5,926.04
2.87 19.01 102.58 918.66 5,926.04
期间
Period
每股税前收益年复合增长率
Compounded Annual Increase in Per-Share Pre-Tax Earnings
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 20.8% 18.4% 24.5% 20.5% 6
1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 20.8% 18.4% 24.5% 20.5% 6
过去四十年,我们税前非保险业务每股收益的年复合增长率为 21.0%。同一时期,伯克希尔的股价年均上涨 22.1%。随着时间的推移,你可以预期我们的股价大致跟随伯克希尔的投资和盈利同向变动。市场价格和内在价值常常走出截然不同的路径——有时持续很长时间——但最终它们总会汇合。
内在价值的计算中还有第三项,更为主观,可为正亦可为负的要素:即未来留存收益的配置效率。我们,以及许多其他企业,未来十年所保留的收益很可能会赶上,甚至超过我们当前已投入的资本。
有些公司会将这些留存的一美元变成五十美分,另一些则能将其变成两美元。这个“他们会拿这笔钱去干什么”的因素,必须始终与“我们现在手里有什么”的计算结合起来评估,这样我们,或任何人,才能对一家公司的内在价值做出合理的估算。原因在于,当管理层将公司盈利中归属于外部投资者的那一部分用于再投资时,外部投资者只能束手无策地旁观。如果一位 CEO 预期能把这件事做好,再投资的前景就会增加公司当前的价值;如果这位 CEO 的才能或动机让人生疑,那么当前的价值就应打个折扣。两者带来的结果可能天差地别。在 20 世纪 60 年代末,在当时的西尔斯罗巴克(Sears Roebuck)或蒙哥马利·沃德(Montgomery Ward)的 CEO 手中,一美元最终带来的价值,与交到山姆·沃尔顿(Sam Walton)手中那一美元的命运,截然不同。
For the forty years, our compounded annual gain in pre-tax, non-insurance earnings per share is 21.0%. During the same period, Berkshire’s stock price increased at a rate of 22.1% annually. Over time, you can expect our stock price to move in rough tandem with Berkshire’s investments and earnings. Market price and intrinsic value often follow very different paths – sometimes for extended periods – but eventually they meet. There is a third, more subjective, element to an intrinsic value calculation that can be either positive or negative: the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed in the future. We, as well as many other businesses, are likely to retain earnings over the next decade that will equal, or even exceed, the capital we presently employ. Some companies will turn these retained dollars into fifty-cent pieces, others into two-dollar bills. This “what-will-they-do-with-the-money” factor must always be evaluated along with the “what-do-we-have-now” calculation in order for us, or anybody, to arrive at a sensible estimate of a company’s intrinsic value. That’s because an outside investor stands by helplessly as management reinvests his share of the company’s earnings. If a CEO can be expected to do this job well, the reinvestment prospects add to the company’s current value; if the CEO’s talents or motives are suspect, today’s value must be discounted. The difference in outcome can be huge. A dollar of then-value in the hands of Sears Roebuck’s or Montgomery Ward’s CEOs in the late 1960s had a far different destiny than did a dollar entrusted to Sam Walton.
****
****
查理和我都希望,我们非保险业务的每股收益能以可观的速率继续增长。但基数越大,这份差事就越难。我们既需要现有业务的良好表现,也需要更多大手笔的收购。我们已做好准备:我们的猎象枪已重新装弹,我的扳机指正发痒。
部分抵消规模过大这一不利因素的,是我们所拥有的几项重要优势。
首先,我们拥有一批名副其实的、极为出色的经理人,他们对自己负责的运营业务和伯克希尔都怀着非同寻常的投入精神。我们许多 CEO 本身就很有钱,他们继续工作纯粹是因为热爱自己所做的事。他们是志愿者,不是雇佣兵。因为没有人能给他们提供一份更喜爱的工作,所以谁也引诱不走他们。
在伯克希尔,经理人可以专注于经营自己的业务:他们不必去总部开会,不为融资发愁,也不受华尔街的骚扰。他们只需每两年收到一封我的信(见第 104-105 页的复印件),然后想打电话给我时随时可以打。他们的意愿确实因人而异:有的经理人,我过去一年都没跟他通过电话;也有一位,我几乎天天都跟他通话。
我们信赖的是人,而不是流程。“严选人,少管事”的准则既适合他们,也适合我。
伯克希尔的 CEO 形形色色。有人有 MBA 学位;有人大学都没念完。有人用预算,是按章办事的类型;另一些人则是凭直觉摸着石头过河。我们的团队就像一支全明星棒球队,击球风格千差万别。我们的阵容很少需要调整。
我们的第二项优势与旗下企业所赚钱财的配置有关。在满足了这些企业自身的需求之后,我们还有大量资金剩余。大多数公司只限于在自己一直经营的行业内进行再投资。然而,这通常会把它们限制在一个规模极小,且远逊于更广阔世界所提供选择的资本配置“天地”里。对那少数几个可得机会的争夺往往极为激烈。卖方占据上风,就像一个女孩在众多男孩参加的派对上成为唯一的女性。这种倾斜的局面对女孩来说妙极了,但对男孩们却糟糕透顶。
在伯克希尔,部署资金时我们不受任何机构条框的制约。查理和我唯一的限制,就是我们能否看懂一笔潜在收购的可能的未来前景。只要我们过了这道坎——而我们也常常过不了——我们就能将任一机会与众多其他机会放在一起比较。
Charlie and I hope that the per-share earnings of our non-insurance businesses continue to increase at a decent rate. But the job gets tougher as the numbers get larger. We will need both good performance from our current businesses and more major acquisitions. We’re prepared. Our elephant gun has been reloaded, and my trigger finger is itchy. Partially offsetting our anchor of size are several important advantages we have. First, we possess a cadre of truly skilled managers who have an unusual commitment to their own operations and to Berkshire. Many of our CEOs are independently wealthy and work only because they love what they do. They are volunteers, not mercenaries. Because no one can offer them a job they would enjoy more, they can’t be lured away. At Berkshire, managers can focus on running their businesses: They are not subjected to meetings at headquarters nor financing worries nor Wall Street harassment. They simply get a letter from me every two years (it’s reproduced on pages 104-105) and call me when they wish. And their wishes do differ: There are managers to whom I have not talked in the last year, while there is one with whom I talk almost daily. Our trust is in people rather than process. A “hire well, manage little” code suits both them and me. Berkshire’s CEOs come in many forms. Some have MBAs; others never finished college. Some use budgets and are by-the-book types; others operate by the seat of their pants. Our team resembles a baseball squad composed of all-stars having vastly different batting styles. Changes in our line-up are seldom required. Our second advantage relates to the allocation of the money our businesses earn. After meeting the needs of those businesses, we have very substantial sums left over. Most companies limit themselves to reinvesting funds within the industry in which they have been operating. That often restricts them, however, to a “universe” for capital allocation that is both tiny and quite inferior to what is available in the wider world. Competition for the few opportunities that are available tends to become fierce. The seller has the upper hand, as a girl might if she were the only female at a party attended by many boys. That lopsided situation would be great for the girl, but terrible for the boys. At Berkshire we face no institutional restraints when we deploy capital. Charlie and I are limited only by our ability to understand the likely future of a possible acquisition. If we clear that hurdle – and frequently we can’t – we are then able to compare any one opportunity against a host of others.
7
7
1965 年我刚控制伯克希尔那会儿,并没有利用这一优势。那时伯克希尔只做纺织,而纺织业务在此前的十年里已亏损了相当多钱。我当时能做的事情当中,最蠢的一件莫过于去追寻那些“改进与扩张现有纺织业务”的所谓机会——而多年以来,我偏偏就是这么干的。然后,在灵感的最后迸发中,我又跑出去收购了另一家纺织公司。啊啊啊啊啊!最终我如梦初醒,先把公司方向转到了保险业,然后扩展到其他行业。
这个“世界任我采撷”的优势还有一个附带好处:除了拿一门生意去跟众多其他生意比较吸引力之外,我们还会用生意去跟有价证券市场上可及的机会进行比较,这是大多数管理层不会去做的一种比较。很多时候,相对于投资股票或债券可能带来的回报,生意的要价高得离谱。在这种时候,我们就买证券,静待时机。
我们在资本配置上的灵活性,是我们走到今天这一位置的一大原因。我们能把从比如喜诗糖果或美国商业资讯(Business Wire)——这是两家我们经营得最好,但也是再投资机会有限的生意——赚来的钱,用作我们收购伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路(BNSF)所需的部分本钱。
我们最后一项优势,是弥漫在伯克希尔内那种难以复制的文化。在生意场上,文化至关重要。
就最基本的一点来说,代表你们的董事们思考行事都像所有者。他们领取的是象征性薪酬:没有期权、没有限制性股票,而且说实话,几乎没有任何现金。我们不给他们提供董事及高管责任保险,而这项保险在几乎所有其他大型上市公司都是标配。如果他们用你们的钱把事情搞砸了,他们自己的钱也会同样受损。撇开我的持股不算,董事及其家人持有的伯克希尔股票价值超过 30 亿美元。因此,我们的董事是以切身的利益和所有者的眼光,来密切监督伯克希尔的行动与结果的。你我能有他们作为管家,实属幸运。
这种同样的所有者导向,在我们的经理人中也普遍存在。在很多情况下,是他们自己找上伯克希尔,希望我们收购他们和家族长久以来拥有的生意。他们带着所有者的心态找到我们,而我们提供了一个鼓励他们保持这种心态的环境。拥有一群热爱自己生意的经理人,这绝不是什么微不足道的优势。
文化会自我繁衍。温斯顿·丘吉尔曾说:“你先塑造你的房子,然后你的房子会反过来塑造你。”这句至理名言同样适用于企业。官僚流程会催生更多官僚主义,帝王气派的公司总部会催生专横的行为。(正如一位幽默人士所说:“当你坐进汽车后座,车却没动时,你就知道自己已不再是 CEO 了。”)在伯克希尔的“世界总部”,我们一年的租金为 270,212 美元。此外,总部在办公家具、艺术品、可乐机、餐厅、高科技设备——你能想到的一切——上的总投入为 301,363 美元。只要查理和我对待你们的钱,如同对待我们自己的钱,伯克希尔的经理人们多半也会一样精心对待。
我们的薪酬计划、我们的股东大会,甚至我们的年报,其设计都着眼于强化伯克希尔的文化,并使之能排斥并淘汰掉具有不同倾向的经理人。这种文化年复一年地愈加坚实,就算查理和我离开舞台很久之后,它仍将完好无损。
我们若想做得还算过得去,前面我所说的所有优势我们都需要。我们的经理人将会交付成果;这一点你大可放心。但查理和我在资本配置上能否不掉链子,则部分取决于收购领域的竞争态势。我们会竭尽全力。
When I took control of Berkshire in 1965, I didn’t exploit this advantage. Berkshire was then only in textiles, where it had in the previous decade lost significant money. The dumbest thing I could have done was to pursue “opportunities” to improve and expand the existing textile operation – so for years that’s exactly what I did. And then, in a final burst of brilliance, I went out and bought another textile company. Aaaaaaargh! Eventually I came to my senses, heading first into insurance and then into other industries. There is even a supplement to this world-is-our-oyster advantage: In addition to evaluating the attractions of one business against a host of others, we also measure businesses against opportunities available in marketable securities, a comparison most managements don’t make. Often, businesses are priced ridiculously high against what can likely be earned from investments in stocks or bonds. At such moments, we buy securities and bide our time. Our flexibility in respect to capital allocation has accounted for much of our progress to date. We have been able to take money we earn from, say, See’s Candies or Business Wire (two of our best-run businesses, but also two offering limited reinvestment opportunities) and use it as part of the stake we needed to buy BNSF. Our final advantage is the hard-to-duplicate culture that permeates Berkshire. And in businesses, culture counts. To start with, the directors who represent you think and act like owners. They receive token compensation: no options, no restricted stock and, for that matter, virtually no cash. We do not provide them directors and officers liability insurance, a given at almost every other large public company. If they mess up with your money, they will lose their money as well. Leaving my holdings aside, directors and their families own Berkshire shares worth more than $3 billion. Our directors, therefore, monitor Berkshire’s actions and results with keen interest and an owner’s eye. You and I are lucky to have them as stewards. This same owner-orientation prevails among our managers. In many cases, these are people who have sought out Berkshire as an acquirer for a business that they and their families have long owned. They came to us with an owner’s mindset, and we provide an environment that encourages them to retain it. Having managers who love their businesses is no small advantage. Cultures self-propagate. Winston Churchill once said, “You shape your houses and then they shape you.” That wisdom applies to businesses as well. Bureaucratic procedures beget more bureaucracy, and imperial corporate palaces induce imperious behavior. (As one wag put it, “You know you’re no longer CEO when you get in the back seat of your car and it doesn’t move.”) At Berkshire’s “World Headquarters” our annual rent is $270,212. Moreover, the home-office investment in furniture, art, Coke dispenser, lunch room, high-tech equipment – you name it – totals $301,363. As long as Charlie and I treat your money as if it were our own, Berkshire’s managers are likely to be careful with it as well. Our compensation programs, our annual meeting and even our annual reports are all designed with an eye to reinforcing the Berkshire culture, and making it one that will repel and expel managers of a different bent. This culture grows stronger every year, and it will remain intact long after Charlie and I have left the scene. We will need all of the strengths I’ve just described to do reasonably well. Our managers will deliver; you can count on that. But whether Charlie and I can hold up our end in capital allocation depends in part on the competitive environment for acquisitions. You will get our best efforts.
GEICO
GEICO
我来给你讲个故事,帮你看明白一家企业的内在价值为何能远远高过它的账面价值。讲这段往事,也让我有机会重温一些美好的回忆。六十年前的上个月,GEICO 闯进了我的生活,注定要以极深的方式塑造我的人生。那时我 20 岁,在哥伦比亚大学读研究生——之所以选那里,是因为我的偶像本·格雷厄姆每周在那儿上一堂课。 8
Now let me tell you a story that will help you understand how the intrinsic value of a business can far exceed its book value. Relating this tale also gives me a chance to relive some great memories. Sixty years ago last month, GEICO entered my life, destined to shape it in a huge way. I was then a 20-year-old graduate student at Columbia, having elected to go there because my hero, Ben Graham, taught a once-a-week class at the school. 8
一天在图书馆,我翻出本·格雷厄姆在《美国名人录》里的条目,发现他竟是政府雇员保险公司(Government Employees Insurance Co.,如今叫 GEICO)的董事长。我对保险一窍不通,也从没听说过这家公司。图书馆员却给我找来一本厚厚的保险公司汇编,读完 GEICO 那一页,我当即决定去登门拜访。接下来那个周六,我搭上开往华盛顿的早班火车。谁料赶到公司总部,大楼却锁着门。我急得直拍门,最后拍出来一个看门人。我问他办公室里有没有人能聊两句,他把我领到了唯一在场的洛里默·戴维森跟前。那真是我走运的一刻。接下来的四个小时里,“戴维”给我上了一课,既讲保险,也讲 GEICO。一段美好的友谊由此开始。不久我从哥伦比亚大学毕业,回奥马哈做起了股票推销员。GEICO 自然是我的头号推荐,我因此一开局就拉到了几十个客户,开了个好头。GEICO 也助推了我的净资产——见过戴维后不久,我就把它买到占自己 9,800 美元投资组合的 75%。(即便如此,我还嫌自己过度分散了。)后来,戴维当上 GEICO 的 CEO,把公司带到了做梦都想不到的高度,直到他退休几年后的 70 年代中期,公司陷入了困境。就在那时——股价跌去 95% 以上——伯克希尔在市场上买下了公司约三分之一的股份;此后几年,因为 GEICO 不断回购自家股票,这一比例升到了 50%。买下这半壁江山,伯克希尔总共花了 4,600 万美元。(尽管持股不小,我们并未插手运营。)到 1996 年初,我们又买下 GEICO 剩下的 50%,这促使 95 岁的戴维录了一段视频,说他多么高兴——他心爱的 GEICO 从此永远归属伯克希尔。(他还俏皮地补了一句:“沃伦,下回请先预约。”)六十年里,GEICO 经历了许多,但它的核心目标——帮美国人在买车险时省下一大笔钱——始终未变。(不妨试试:拨打 1-800-847-7536,或访问 www.GEICO.com。)换句话说,靠配得上客户,来赢得客户。咬住这个目标,GEICO 已成长为全美第三大汽车保险公司,市场份额 8.8%。1993 年托尼·尼塞利接手时,这一份额只有 2.0%,而且十多年都卡在这个水平。在托尼手里,GEICO 脱胎换骨,一边找到了持续增长的路子,一边守住承保纪律、把成本压得很低。我来给托尼的成绩算笔账。1996 年买下 GEICO 剩余那 50% 时,我们花了约 23 亿美元,这意味着整家公司 100% 股权的价值为 46 亿美元。当时 GEICO 的有形净资产是 19 亿美元,超出有形净资产的那部分——27 亿美元——就是我们当时估算的 GEICO“商誉”。这块商誉,代表着当时在 GEICO 投保的那批客户的经济价值。1995 年,这些客户向公司缴了 28 亿美元保费。也就是说,我们给 GEICO 客户的估值,约等于他们每年缴给公司金额的 97%(2.7/2.8)。按行业标准,这价钱高得很。但 GEICO 不是一般的保险公司:靠着低成本,它的保单持有人一直贡献着稳定的利润,忠诚度也格外高。如今,保费规模已达 143 亿美元,还在往上走。可我们账上记的 GEICO 商誉却只有 14 亿美元——无论 GEICO 增值多少,这个数字都不会变。(按会计准则,商誉的经济价值下降时要调低账面数,上升时则维持不变。)套用我们 1996 年那把“97% 保费规模”的尺子,今天 GEICO 经济商誉的真实价值约为 140 亿美元;而十年、二十年之后,这个数字很可能高得多。GEICO——2011 年开局强劲——是一份不断给予的礼物。
One day at the library, I checked out Ben’s entry in Who’s Who in America and found he was chairman of Government Employees Insurance Co. (now called GEICO). I knew nothing of insurance and had never heard of the company. The librarian, however, steered me to a large compendium of insurers and, after reading the page on GEICO, I decided to visit the company. The following Saturday, I boarded an early train for Washington. Alas, when I arrived at the company’s headquarters, the building was closed. I then rather frantically started pounding on a door, until finally a janitor appeared. I asked him if there was anyone in the office I could talk to, and he steered me to the only person around, Lorimer Davidson. That was my lucky moment. During the next four hours, “Davy” gave me an education about both insurance and GEICO. It was the beginning of a wonderful friendship. Soon thereafter, I graduated from Columbia and became a stock salesman in Omaha. GEICO, of course, was my prime recommendation, which got me off to a great start with dozens of customers. GEICO also jump-started my net worth because, soon after meeting Davy, I made the stock 75% of my $9,800 investment portfolio. (Even so, I felt over-diversified.) Subsequently, Davy became CEO of GEICO, taking the company to undreamed-of heights before it got into trouble in the mid-1970s, a few years after his retirement. When that happened – with the stock falling by more than 95% – Berkshire bought about one-third of the company in the market, a position that over the years increased to 50% because of GEICO’s repurchases of its own shares. Berkshire’s cost for this half of the business was $46 million. (Despite the size of our position, we exercised no control over operations.) We then purchased the remaining 50% of GEICO at the beginning of 1996, which spurred Davy, at 95, to make a video tape saying how happy he was that his beloved GEICO would permanently reside with Berkshire. (He also playfully concluded with, “Next time, Warren, please make an appointment.”) A lot has happened at GEICO during the last 60 years, but its core goal – saving Americans substantial money on their purchase of auto insurance – remains unchanged. (Try us at 1-800-847-7536 or www.GEICO.com.) In other words, get the policyholder’s business by deserving his business. Focusing on this objective, the company has grown to be America’s third-largest auto insurer, with a market share of 8.8%. When Tony Nicely, GEICO’s CEO, took over in 1993, that share was 2.0%, a level at which it had been stuck for more than a decade. GEICO became a different company under Tony, finding a path to consistent growth while simultaneously maintaining underwriting discipline and keeping its costs low. Let me quantify Tony’s achievement. When, in 1996, we bought the 50% of GEICO we didn’t already own, it cost us about $2.3 billion. That price implied a value of $4.6 billion for 100%. GEICO then had tangible net worth of $1.9 billion. The excess over tangible net worth of the implied value – $2.7 billion – was what we estimated GEICO’s “goodwill” to be worth at that time. That goodwill represented the economic value of the policyholders who were then doing business with GEICO. In 1995, those customers had paid the company $2.8 billion in premiums. Consequently, we were valuing GEICO’s customers at about 97% (2.7/2.8) of what they were annually paying the company. By industry standards, that was a very high price. But GEICO was no ordinary insurer: Because of the company’s low costs, its policyholders were consistently profitable and unusually loyal. Today, premium volume is $14.3 billion and growing. Yet we carry the goodwill of GEICO on our books at only $1.4 billion, an amount that will remain unchanged no matter how much the value of GEICO increases. (Under accounting rules, you write down the carrying value of goodwill if its economic value decreases, but leave it unchanged if economic value increases.) Using the 97%-of-premium-volume yardstick we applied to our 1996 purchase, the real value today of GEICO’s economic goodwill is about $14 billion. And this value is likely to be much higher ten and twenty years from now. GEICO – off to a strong start in 2011 – is the gift that keeps giving.
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还有一条不算小的补充:在托尼手下,GEICO 建起了全美规模数一数二的个人险代理机构,主要向我们的 GEICO 车险客户销售房主保险。在这门生意里,我们代理的是一批与我们没有关联的保险公司:风险由它们承担,我们只管把客户签下来。去年,这家代理机构卖出了 769,898 份新保单,比上一年增长 34%。这项业务给我们带来的好处显而易见:它能创造佣金收入;同样重要的是,它进一步加固了我们和投保人的关系,帮我们把客户留住。我欠托尼和戴维一笔天大的人情(想想看,还得算上那位看门人)。
One not-so-small footnote: Under Tony, GEICO has developed one of the country’s largest personallines insurance agencies, which primarily sells homeowners policies to our GEICO auto insurance customers. In this business, we represent a number of insurers that are not affiliated with us. They take the risk; we simply sign up the customers. Last year we sold 769,898 new policies at this agency operation, up 34% from the year before. The obvious way this activity aids us is that it produces commission revenue; equally important is the fact that it further strengthens our relationship with our policyholders, helping us retain them. I owe an enormous debt to Tony and Davy (and, come to think of it, to that janitor as well).
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现在,我们来看看伯克希尔的四大板块。每一块在资产负债表和利润表上的特征都与其他几块迥然不同,搅在一起只会碍事。所以我们把它们当作四家独立的公司来呈现——查理和我本来就是这么看的。我们先看保险,这是伯克希尔的核心业务,也是多年来推动我们扩张的引擎。
Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of Berkshire. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. Lumping them together therefore impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them. We will look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has propelled our expansion over the years.
保险
Insurance
财产–意外险(P/C)公司先收保费,后付赔款。碰上极端情形,比如某些工伤事故引发的理赔,赔付可能一拖就是几十年。这种“先收钱、后赔付”的模式,让我们手里攥着大笔资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——这些钱终归要付给别人。而在此期间,我们可以拿这笔浮存金为伯克希尔投资生利。虽说一张张保单、一起起理赔来来去去,但相对保费规模而言,我们持有的浮存金总额始终相当稳定。于是,业务越做越大,浮存金也水涨船高。至于我们涨得有多快,看看下面这张表就知道了:
Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire’s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains remarkably stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown: Just take a look at the
以下表格:
following table:
浮存金(单位:百万美元)
Float (in $ millions)
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1970 年末 1980 年 1990 年 2000 年 2010 年
Yearend 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$
$
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832
如果我们的保费收入超过了各项费用加最终赔付的总和,就实现了承保利润,它会在浮存金带来的投资收益之外再添一笔。这种利润一出现,我们等于在白用一笔钱——更妙的是,拿着这笔钱还有人给我们发报酬。可惜,所有保险公司都眼馋这种好事,竞争因此格外激烈,在多数年份都逼得整个财险行业整体承受可观的承保亏损。说到底,这份亏损就是行业为持有浮存金付出的代价。举例来说,州立农业保险公司(State Farm),全美遥遥领先的最大保险公司,也是一家管理有方的公司,过去十年里有七年出现承保亏损,累计亏损超过 200 亿美元。而伯克希尔已连续八年实现承保盈利,这段时间的承保利润合计达 170 亿美元。我相信,未来大多数年份——当然不会是全部——我们很可能继续做到承保盈利。果真如此,我们的浮存金就不止是零成本,简直比免费还划算:那感觉,就好比有人把 660 亿美元存到我们这儿,还倒贴一笔保管费,再放手让我们拿这笔钱去为自己投资。
If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income that our float produces. When such a profit occurs, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Alas, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company, has incurred an underwriting loss in seven of the last ten years. During that period, its aggregate underwriting loss was more than $20 billion. At Berkshire, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for eight consecutive years, our total underwriting gain for the period having been $17 billion. I believe it likely that we will continue to underwrite profitably in most – though certainly not all – future years. If we accomplish that, our float will be better than cost-free. We will benefit just as we would if some party deposited $66 billion with us, paid us a fee for holding its money and then let us invest its funds for our own benefit.
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我要再强调一遍:零成本浮存金,并不是整个财险行业普遍能指望的结果。多数年份里,行业保费本就不够覆盖理赔加费用。因此几十年来,这个行业的有形净资产回报率一直远低于美国企业的平均水平——这份难看的成绩,几乎注定还会延续。伯克希尔之所以能有如此出众的经济效益,唯一的原因就是我们有几位了不起的经理人,在经营几门不同寻常的生意。GEICO 我们已经介绍过,此外还有另外两家规模极大的业务,以及一大批较小的公司,每一家都各有各的光彩。
Let me emphasize again that cost-free float is not an outcome to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: In most years, industry premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some unusual businesses. We’ve already told you about GEICO, but we have two other very large operations, and a bevy of smaller ones as well, each a star in its own way.
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打头阵的是伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团,由阿吉特·贾恩掌舵。阿吉特承接的,都是别人既无意愿、也无资本去碰的风险。他把承保能力、速度、决断力,以及最要紧的头脑融为一体,在保险界独一无二。可他从不让伯克希尔去冒与自身实力不相称的险——在这一点上,我们其实比多数大型保险公司都保守得多。过去一年,阿吉特大幅扩张了寿险再保险业务,拿下了约 20 亿美元的年保费,而且这笔收入会延续几十年。从 1985 年白手起家,阿吉特打造出一家坐拥 300 亿美元浮存金、外加可观承保利润的保险公司——这份成就,没有任何一家保险公司的 CEO 能望其项背。凭着这些战绩,他为伯克希尔的价值增添了好几十亿美元。就连氪石,砸到阿吉特身上都得弹开。
First off is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, run by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most importantly, brains in a manner that is unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, we are far more conservative than most large insurers in that respect. In the past year, Ajit has significantly increased his life reinsurance operation, developing annual premium volume of about $2 billion that will repeat for decades. From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $30 billion and significant underwriting profits, a feat that no CEO of any other insurer has come close to matching. By his accomplishments, he has added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire. Even kryptonite bounces off Ajit.
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我们旗下还有另一家保险重镇——通用再保险,由泰德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)执掌。归根到底,一门扎实的保险生意需要守住四项纪律:(1)理解所有可能引发保单损失的风险敞口;(2)对任一敞口实际酿成损失的概率及损失发生后的可能成本,做出审慎评估;(3)设定保费水平,使之在覆盖预期损失成本和经营费用后,平均而言仍能产生利润;(4)若无法获得合理保费,要有果断放弃的意愿。许多保险公司通得过前三项考验,却在第四项上败下阵来。华尔街的催逼、代理人和经纪人的压力,或仅仅是荷尔蒙上头的 CEO 接受不了业务规模萎缩,已导致太多保险公司以偏低的定价承保。“别人都这么做,我们也只好跟着做”——这句话放在任何行业都是祸端,但在保险业为害尤甚。泰德恪守了这四条保险戒律,其经营业绩便是明证。在他领导下,通用再保险庞大的浮存金已优于零成本,我们预计,平均而言,这一状态将持续下去。
We have another insurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross. At bottom, a sound insurance operation requires four disciplines: (1) An understanding of all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) A conservative evaluation of the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) The setting of a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) The willingness to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained. Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. The urgings of Wall Street, pressures from the agency force and brokers, or simply a refusal by a testosterone-driven CEO to accept shrinking volumes has led too many insurers to write business at inadequate prices. “The other guy is doing it so we must as well” spells trouble in any business, but none more so than insurance. Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, it will continue to be.
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最后,我们持有一批规模较小的公司,大多专精于保险业中较为冷僻的细分领域。整体来看,它们的业绩持续保持盈利,并且如下表所示,它们为我们提供的浮存金相当可观。查理和我十分珍视这些公司及其经理人。下表是我们财产/意外险和寿险全部四个业务板块的业绩记录:
Finally, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them specializing in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, their results have consistently been profitable and, as the table below shows, the float they provide us is substantial. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers. Here is the record of all four segments of our property-casualty and life insurance businesses:
| 承保利润 | (百万) | 年末浮动 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 保险运营 | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 |
| 通用再保险公司 | $ 452 | $ 477 | $20,049 | $21,014 |
| BH再保险 | 176 | 250 | 30,370 | 27,753 |
| GEICO | 1,117 | 649 | 10,272 | 9,613 |
| 其他主要业务 | 268 | 84 | 5,141 | 5,061 |
| $2,013 | $1,460 | $65,832 | $63,441 |
| Underwriting Profit | (in millions) | Yearend Float | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Operations | 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 |
| General Re | $ 452 | $ 477 | $20,049 | $21,014 |
| BH Reinsurance | 176 | 250 | 30,370 | 27,753 |
| GEICO | 1,117 | 649 | 10,272 | 9,613 |
| Other Primary | 268 | 84 | 5,141 | 5,061 |
| $2,013 | $1,460 | $65,832 | $63,441 |
在全球大型保险机构中,伯克希尔在我看来是世界上最出色的。11
Among large insurance operations, Berkshire’s impresses me as the best in the world. 11
制造业、服务业和零售业务
伯克希尔在这一领域的活动覆盖了方方面面。不过,我们先来看一下整个集团的资产负债表和损益表摘要。
资产负债表 12/31/10(单位:百万美元)
Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/10 (in millions)
资产
Assets
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现金及现金等价物……应收账款及应收票据……存货……其他流动资产……流动资产合计……商誉及其他无形资产……固定资产……其他资产
Cash and equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Accounts and notes receivable . . . . . . . . . . Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goodwill and other intangibles . . . . . . . . . Fixed assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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负债与权益
应付票据……
其他流动负债……
流动负债合计……
Liabilities and Equity Notes payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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$ 2,673 5,396 7,101 550 15,720 16,976 15,421 3,029 $51,146
$ 2,673 5,396 7,101 550 15,720 16,976 15,421 3,029 $51,146
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递延所得税……长期债务及其他负债……股东权益……
Deferred taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Term debt and other liabilities . . . . . . . . . . Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 1,805 8,169 9,974 3,001 6,621 31,550 $51,146
$ 1,805 8,169 9,974 3,001 6,621 31,550 $51,146
损益表(单位:百万美元) 2010 年 66,610
Earnings Statement (in millions) 2010 $66,610
2009 $61,665 2008 $66,099
2009 $61,665 2008 $66,099
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营业收入 66,610 61,665 66,099
营业支出(含折旧:2010 年 1,362 百万美元,2009 年 1,422 百万美元,2008 年 1,280 百万美元) 62,225 59,509 61,937
利息支出 111 98 139
税前利润 4,274* 2,058* 4,023*
所得税及非控制性权益 1,812 945 1,740
净利润 $ 2,462 $ 1,113 $ 2,283
*不含购买法会计调整。
这批公司销售的产品从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机,范围极广。其中部分生意经济特性极佳,以无杠杆有形净资产收益率衡量,税后回报从 25% 到超过 100% 不等。另一些则表现不错,回报率在 12% 至 20% 之间。不过,有少数几家回报十分惨淡,这是我在资本配置工作中犯下若干严重错误的结果。这些失误的根源,在于我错误地判断了所购企业的竞争实力,或其所处行业的未来经济前景。做收购决策时,我尽力把眼光放到未来十年、二十年,但有时我的眼力实在欠佳。去年,这一板块中的大部分公司利润均实现增长,其中四家更是创下纪录。我们先来看几家创纪录的公司。
Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Operating expenses (including depreciation of $1,362 in 2010, $1,422 in 2009 and $1,280 in 2008) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62,225 59,509 61,937 Interest expense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 98 139 Pre-tax earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,274* 2,058* 4,023* Income taxes and non-controlling interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,812 945 1,740 Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 2,462 $ 1,113 $ 2,283 *Does not include purchase-accounting adjustments. This group of companies sells products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of the businesses enjoy terrific economics, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets that run from 25% after-tax to more than 100%. Others produce good returns in the area of 12-20%. Unfortunately, a few have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I have made in my job of capital allocation. These errors came about because I misjudged either the competitive strength of the business I was purchasing or the future economics of the industry in which it operated. I try to look out ten or twenty years when making an acquisition, but sometimes my eyesight has been poor. Most of the companies in this section improved their earnings last year and four set records. Let’s look first at the record-breakers. •
电子元器件分销商 TTI 的销售额比此前最高纪录(2008 年创下)高出 21%,税前利润更是将原纪录一举甩开 58%。其销售增长横跨三大洲:北美增长 16%,欧洲增长 26%,亚洲增长 50%。TTI 分销的成千上万种产品都普普通通,许多单价还不到一美元。TTI 非凡业绩的魔力,源自其 CEO 保罗·安德鲁斯(Paul Andrews)和他的团队。
TTI, our electronic components distributor, had sales 21% above its previous high (recorded in 2008) and pre-tax earnings that topped its earlier record by 58%. Its sales gains spanned three continents, with North America at 16%, Europe at 26%, and Asia at 50%. The thousands of items TTI distributes are pedestrian, many selling for less than a dollar. The magic of TTI’s exceptional performance is created by Paul Andrews, its CEO, and his associates.
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我们的房车与游艇制造商森林河公司(Forest River),销售额近 20 亿美元,利润也双双创下历史新高。森林河拥有 82 家工厂,而我至今一家都未去过(公司总部我也没去过)。没这必要;公司 CEO 皮特·利格尔(Pete Liegl)把生意经营得相当出色。欢迎在股东大会上来看看他的产品。当然,最好是直接买一辆。
Forest River, our RV and boat manufacturer, had record sales of nearly $2 billion and record earnings as well. Forest River has 82 plants, and I have yet to visit one (or the home office, for that matter). There’s no need; Pete Liegl, the company’s CEO, runs a terrific operation. Come view his products at the annual meeting. Better yet, buy one.
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我们的农业设备公司 CTB,再次刷新了盈利纪录。关于公司 CEO 维克·曼奇内利(Vic Mancinelli),我在 2008 年年报中向你们介绍过。他还在不断精进。伯克希尔在 2002 年以 1.4 亿美元收购了 CTB,此后它为我们贡献了 1.6 亿美元股息,并清偿了 4,000 万美元债务;去年,公司税前利润达到 1.06 亿美元。推动这一增长的主要是生产率的持续提升。我们收购 CTB 时,人均销售额为 189,365 美元;如今已达 405,878 美元。
CTB, our farm-equipment company, again set an earnings record. I told you in the 2008 Annual Report about Vic Mancinelli, the company’s CEO. He just keeps getting better. Berkshire paid $140 million for CTB in 2002. It has since paid us dividends of $160 million and eliminated $40 million of debt. Last year it earned $106 million pre-tax. Productivity gains have produced much of this increase. When we bought CTB, sales per employee were $189,365; now they are $405,878.
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你敢信,居然是鞋子?H. H. Brown 由吉姆·伊斯勒(Jim Issler)掌管,以 Born 品牌最为人熟知,去年销售额和利润双双创下新高(股东大会现场卖出 1,110 双鞋子,也帮了忙)。吉姆出色地适应了行业巨变。他的工作,顺便说一句,由 89 岁的弗兰克·鲁尼(Frank Rooney)把关。鲁尼先生是位极出色的生意人,在高尔夫球场上跟他打赌,至今仍是件危险的事。
Would you believe shoes? H. H. Brown, run by Jim Issler and best known for its Born brand, set a new record for sales and earnings (helped by its selling 1,110 pairs of shoes at our annual meeting). Jim has brilliantly adapted to major industry changes. His work, I should mention, is overseen by Frank Rooney, 89, a superb businessman and still a dangerous fellow with whom to have a bet on the golf course.
这个板块的同比显著改善,NetJets 可谓重头戏。戴维·索科尔(Dave Sokol)在这家喷气式飞机分时所有权领域龙头公司的成就,其广度与分量,我怎么强调都不为过。NetJets 在运营上早已是赢家,2010 年的市场份额是紧随其后的对手的五倍。这份压倒性的领先地位,源自一支出色的飞行员、机械师和服务人员团队。2010 年,这支队伍再次不负众望,在我们开展的例行调查中,客户满意度创下新高。尽管 NetJets 在客户中始终是遥遥领先的赢家,但自 1998 年被收购以来,我们的财务业绩却一直失败。截至 2009 年的 11 年间,公司累计税前亏损 1.57 亿美元——而这个数字被严重低估了,因为 NetJets 白白占用伯克希尔的信用,其借款成本得到了大幅补贴。倘若 NetJets 独立运营,这些年的亏损还要再多出好几亿美元。如今,我们正就伯克希尔提供的担保,向 NetJets 收取合理的费用。即便扣掉这笔费用(2010 年为 3,800 万美元),NetJets 在 2010 年仍实现了 2.07 亿美元的税前利润,与 2009 年相比,整整扭亏为盈 9.18 亿美元。戴维迅速重组了管理层,并理顺了公司的采购与支出政策,由此止住了现金失血,把伯克希尔唯一一块重大业务难题,变成了一门利润扎实的生意。与此同时,戴维守住了 NetJets 在安全和服务上行业领先的声誉。在许多重要的方面,我们的培训和运营标准,都远高于联邦航空管理局(FAA)的要求。守住一流标准是分内之事,但我力挺这条政策,还有一个私心。我和家人乘坐 NetJets 飞了 5,000 多个小时(相当于一天 24 小时不间断地飞七个月),将来还要再飞几千个小时。我们从未享受任何特殊照顾,随机坐过至少 100 架飞机、300 个机组的各种搭配。无论哪架飞机、哪个机组,我们都心里有数:自己搭乘的,是私人航空界训练最精良的飞行员。我们制造、服务和零售板块里最赚钱的企业是玛蒙集团(Marmon),它由 130 项生意组成。我们很快将按计划,从普利兹克(Pritzker)家族手中买下其持有的 17% 股份,将持股比例提升至 80%,成本约 15 亿美元。随后,我们将在 2013 或 2014 年(由该家族选定具体年份),买下普利兹克家族剩余的持股。弗兰克·普塔克(Frank Ptak)把玛蒙管得极为出色,我们盼着早日实现 100% 全资控股。
A huge story in this sector’s year-to-year improvement occurred at NetJets. I can’t overstate the breadth and importance of Dave Sokol’s achievements at this company, the leading provider of fractional ownership of jet airplanes. NetJets has long been an operational success, owning a 2010 market share five times that of its nearest competitor. Our overwhelming leadership stems from a wonderful team of pilots, mechanics and service personnel. This crew again did its job in 2010, with customer satisfaction, as delineated in our regular surveys, hitting new highs. Even though NetJets was consistently a runaway winner with customers, our financial results, since its acquisition in 1998, were a failure. In the 11 years through 2009, the company reported an aggregate pre-tax loss of $157 million, a figure that was far understated since borrowing costs at NetJets were heavily subsidized by its free use of Berkshire’s credit. Had NetJets been operating on a stand-alone basis, its loss over the years would have been several hundreds of millions greater. We are now charging NetJets an appropriate fee for Berkshire’s guarantee. Despite this fee (which came to $38 million in 2010), NetJets earned $207 million pre-tax in 2010, a swing of $918 million from 2009. Dave’s quick restructuring of management and the company’s rationalization of its purchasing and spending policies has ended the hemorrhaging of cash and turned what was Berkshire’s only major business problem into a solidly profitable operation. Dave has meanwhile maintained NetJets’ industry-leading reputation for safety and service. In many important ways, our training and operational standards are considerably stronger than those required by the FAA. Maintaining top-of-the-line standards is the right thing to do, but I also have a selfish reason for championing this policy. My family and I have flown more than 5,000 hours on NetJets (that’s equal to being airborne 24 hours a day for seven months) and will fly thousands of hours more in the future. We receive no special treatment and have used a random mix of at least 100 planes and 300 crews. Whichever the plane or crew, we always know we are flying with the best-trained pilots in private aviation. The largest earner in our manufacturing, service and retailing sector is Marmon, a collection of 130 businesses. We will soon increase our ownership in this company to 80% by carrying out our scheduled purchase of 17% of its stock from the Pritzker family. The cost will be about $1.5 billion. We will then purchase the remaining Pritzker holdings in 2013 or 2014, whichever date is selected by the family. Frank Ptak runs Marmon wonderfully, and we look forward to 100% ownership.
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紧随玛蒙集团之后,这个板块里最赚钱的两家公司是伊斯卡(Iscar)和麦克莱恩(McLane),去年都表现优异。2010 年,格雷迪·罗齐尔执掌的麦克莱恩,在原有 320 亿美元的食品、香烟、糖果和日用杂货配送生意之外,又切入了葡萄酒和烈酒分销。收购总部设在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的 Empire Distributors 时,我们与它那位干劲十足的 CEO 戴维·卡恩联手。戴维正带着我们向更多地区扩张:到年底,他已完成了首笔收购——田纳西州的 Horizon Wine and Spirits。伊斯卡这边,2010 年利润猛增 159%,2011 年很可能重回衰退前的水平。全球销售都在回暖,亚洲尤其明显。这要归功于埃坦·韦特海默、雅各布·哈帕兹和丹尼·戈德曼的杰出表现,远远盖过了伊斯卡主要竞争对手。以上都是好消息。可我们与住宅建设相关的几门生意,仍在苦苦挣扎。约翰斯·曼维尔、MiTek、萧氏地毯和阿克米砖业守住了各自的竞争地位,利润却远不及几年前:这些业务合起来,2010 年税前利润为 3.62 亿美元,而 2006 年是 13 亿美元,用工人数也减少了约 9,400 人。住宅市场的复苏,大概一年左右就会启动;即便不然,它迟早也会到来。正因如此:(1)过去十一个月里,我们在 MiTek 完成或敲定了五桩补强式收购;(2)最近,阿克米以 5,000 万美元买下了阿拉巴马州领先的制砖厂;(3)约翰斯·曼维尔正在俄亥俄州建一座 5,500 万美元的屋顶防水膜工厂,明年建成;(4)萧氏地毯将在 2011 年投入 2 亿美元用于厂房和设备,全部落在美国。这几门生意进入衰退时底子厚实,走出衰退时会更强壮。在伯克希尔,我们的时间尺度是永远。
Next to Marmon, the two largest earners in this sector are Iscar and McLane. Both had excellent years. In 2010, Grady Rosier’s McLane entered the wine and spirits distribution business to supplement its $32 billion operation as a distributor of food products, cigarettes, candy and sundries. In purchasing Empire Distributors, an operator in Georgia and North Carolina, we teamed up with David Kahn, the company’s dynamic CEO. David is leading our efforts to expand geographically. By yearend he had already made his first acquisition, Horizon Wine and Spirits in Tennessee. At Iscar, profits were up 159% in 2010, and we may well surpass pre-recession levels in 2011. Sales are improving throughout the world, particularly in Asia. Credit Eitan Wertheimer, Jacob Harpaz and Danny Goldman for an exceptional performance, one far superior to that of Iscar’s main competitors. All that is good news. Our businesses related to home construction, however, continue to struggle. Johns Manville, MiTek, Shaw and Acme Brick have maintained their competitive positions, but their profits are far below the levels of a few years ago. Combined, these operations earned $362 million pre-tax in 2010 compared to $1.3 billion in 2006, and their employment has fallen by about 9,400. A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point. Consequently: (1) At MiTek, we have made, or committed to, five bolt-on acquisitions during the past eleven months; (2) At Acme, we just recently acquired the leading manufacturer of brick in Alabama for $50 million; (3) Johns Manville is building a $55 million roofing membrane plant in Ohio, to be completed next year; and (4) Shaw will spend $200 million in 2011 on plant and equipment, all of it situated in America. These businesses entered the recession strong and will exit it stronger. At Berkshire, our time horizon is forever.
受监管的、资本密集型业务
Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses
我们旗下有两家规模极大的企业——伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路(BNSF)和中美能源(MidAmerican Energy)——它们有几项重要的共同特征,将自己与我们其他众多业务区分开来。因此,我们在本信中专门给它们辟出一个板块,并在依据公认会计准则(GAAP)编制的资产负债表和利润表中,将它们的财务数据单列出来。两家公司的一个关键特征是,它们都对使用寿命极长的受监管资产投入了巨额资金,而这些投资靠大量长期债务来支撑,这些债务并不由伯克希尔提供担保。我们根本不需要搭上自己的信用:即便在极为不利的商业环境下,这两家企业的盈利能力也足以绰绰有余地覆盖其利息支出。比如,在衰退中的 2010 年,BNSF 的车皮装载量远低于峰值水平,但公司的利息覆盖倍数仍达到 6 比 1。这两家公司都受到严格监管,并且都将没完没了地需要对厂房和设备进行大量资本投入。同时,两家公司也必须提供高效、令客户满意的服务,以赢得所在社区和监管机构的认可。作为回报,它们需要得到保证:未来投入的资本投资,能赚取合理的回报。前文我已解释过,铁路对我们国家的未来何其重要。按吨英里计算,铁路承运了美国 42% 的城际货运量,而 BNSF 的运量在所有铁路中高居榜首——约占行业总量的 28%。稍一计算便知,美国全部城际货运吨英里中,有超过 11% 是由 BNSF 承运的。考虑到人口向西部迁移的趋势,我们的份额很可能还会小幅上升。这一切,都意味着一份巨大的责任。我们是美国经济循环系统里一个主要且不可或缺的组成部分,有义务持续维护和改善我们那 23,000 英里的轨道,以及配套的桥梁、隧道、机车和车厢。履行这项职责,我们必须预见社会的需求,而不能仅仅被动应对。为尽到我们的社会义务,我们的资本支出通常会远超折旧,2011 年这一超出部分将达到 20 亿美元。我深信,这些巨额的增量投资,将为我们赚回合理的回报。明智的监管与明智的投资,是同一枚硬币的两面。在中美能源,我们也参与着一份类似的“社会契约”。人们期望我们不断投入越来越多的资金,以满足客户未来的需要。如果我们在持续运营中能做到可靠、高效,我们深知,这些投资将获得公平的回报。
We have two very large businesses, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy, with important common characteristics that distinguish them from our many others. Consequently, we give them their own sector in this letter and split out their financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement. A key characteristic of both companies is the huge investment they have in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is not needed: Both businesses have earning power that, even under very adverse business conditions, amply covers their interest requirements. For example, in recessionary 2010 with BNSF’s car loadings far off peak levels, the company’s interest coverage was 6:1. Both companies are heavily regulated, and both will have a never-ending need to make major investments in plant and equipment. Both also need to provide efficient, customer-satisfying service to earn the respect of their communities and regulators. In return, both need to be assured that they will be allowed to earn reasonable earnings on future capital investments. Earlier I explained just how important railroads are to our country’s future. Rail moves 42% of America’s inter-city freight, measured by ton-miles, and BNSF moves more than any other railroad – about 28% of the industry total. A little math will tell you that more than 11% of all inter-city ton-miles of freight in the U.S. is transported by BNSF. Given the shift of population to the West, our share may well inch higher. All of this adds up to a huge responsibility. We are a major and essential part of the American economy’s circulatory system, obliged to constantly maintain and improve our 23,000 miles of track along with its ancillary bridges, tunnels, engines and cars. In carrying out this job, we must anticipate society’s needs, not merely react to them. Fulfilling our societal obligation, we will regularly spend far more than our depreciation, with this excess amounting to $2 billion in 2011. I’m confident we will earn appropriate returns on our huge incremental investments. Wise regulation and wise investment are two sides of the same coin. At MidAmerican, we participate in a similar “social compact.” We are expected to put up everincreasing sums to satisfy the future needs of our customers. If we meanwhile operate reliably and efficiently, we know that we will obtain a fair return on these investments. 14
中美能源在美国为 240 万用户供电,是爱荷华州、怀俄明州和犹他州最大的电力供应商,在其他一些州也是重要的供电方。我们的管道输送着全美 8% 的天然气。显然,每天有成百上千万美国人依赖着我们。中美能源为其股东(伯克希尔持股 89.8%)和客户都交出了出色的成绩单。2002 年中美能源收购北天然管道公司(Northern Natural Gas)之初,它的表现在业内权威机构评级中垫底,43 家里排第 43。在最近一份公布的报告中,北天然已升至第 2 位。榜首位置则由我们的另一条管道——克恩河(Kern River)占据。在其电力业务上,中美能源同样有一份可堪比拟的记录。自 1999 年我们收购爱荷华州的业务以来,当地电价从未上涨。同期,该州另一家主要电力公用事业公司,提价幅度超过 70%,如今电价已远高于我们。在两家公司服务重叠的某些都市区域,我们客户的电费远低于其左邻右舍。据我所知,在这些城市,同类型的房子若坐落于我们的服务区域内,售价还会更高一些。到 2011 年底,中美能源将拥有 2,909 兆瓦的投运风电装机,超过全国任何一家受监管的电力公用事业公司。中美能源在风电领域已投入或承诺投入的资金,累计高达惊人的 54 亿美元。我们之所以能进行此类投资,是因为中美能源留存了其全部收益,而其他公用事业公司通常会将大部分收益派发出去。读到这里,你大概能体会到,马特·罗斯(Matt Rose)在 BNSF、戴维·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)在中美能源,为我们的社会所成就的一切,让我深感自豪;而他们为伯克希尔股东所成就的一切,同样让我既自豪又感激。下面是对应的数据:
MidAmerican supplies 2.4 million customers in the U.S. with electricity, operating as the largest supplier in Iowa, Wyoming and Utah and as an important provider in other states as well. Our pipelines transport 8% of the country’s natural gas. Obviously, many millions of Americans depend on us every day. MidAmerican has delivered outstanding results for both its owners (Berkshire’s interest is 89.8%) and its customers. Shortly after MidAmerican purchased Northern Natural Gas pipeline in 2002, that company’s performance as a pipeline was rated dead last, 43 out of 43, by the leading authority in the field. In the most recent report published, Northern Natural was ranked second. The top spot was held by our other pipeline, Kern River. In its electric business, MidAmerican has a comparable record. Iowa rates have not increased since we purchased our operation there in 1999. During the same period, the other major electric utility in the state has raised prices more than 70% and now has rates far above ours. In certain metropolitan areas in which the two utilities operate side by side, electric bills of our customers run far below those of their neighbors. I am told that comparable houses sell at higher prices in these cities if they are located in our service area. MidAmerican will have 2,909 megawatts of wind generation in operation by the end of 2011, more than any other regulated electric utility in the country. The total amount that MidAmerican has invested or committed to wind is a staggering $5.4 billion. We can make this sort of investment because MidAmerican retains all of its earnings, unlike other utilities that generally pay out most of what they earn. As you can tell by now, I am proud of what has been accomplished for our society by Matt Rose at BNSF and by David Sokol and Greg Abel at MidAmerican. I am also both proud and grateful for what they have accomplished for Berkshire shareholders. Below are the relevant figures: MidAmerican
收益(单位:百万美元) 2010 年 2009 年
Earnings (in millions) 2010 2009
| MidAmerican | 收益(百万美元) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2009 | |
| 英国公用事业 | $ 333 | $ 248 |
| 爱荷华公用事业 | 279 | 285 |
| 西部公用事业 | 783 | 788 |
| 管道 | 378 | 457 |
| 家居服务 | 42 | 43 |
| 其他(净额) | 47 | 25 |
| 公司利息及税前经营收益 | 1,862 | 1,846 |
| 除伯克希尔以外的利息 | (323) | (318) |
| 伯克希尔次级债务利息 | (30) | (58) |
| 所得税 | (271) | (313) |
| 净利润 | $1,238 | $1,157 |
| 归属于伯克希尔的收益* | $1,131 | $1,071 |
| MidAmerican | Earnings (in millions) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2009 | |
| U.K. utilities | $ 333 | $ 248 |
| Iowa utility | 279 | 285 |
| Western utilities | 783 | 788 |
| Pipelines | 378 | 457 |
| HomeServices | 42 | 43 |
| Other (net) | 47 | 25 |
| Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes | 1,862 | 1,846 |
| Interest, other than to Berkshire | (323) | (318) |
| Interest on Berkshire junior debt | (30) | (58) |
| Income tax | (271) | (313) |
| Net earnings | $1,238 | $1,157 |
| Earnings applicable to Berkshire* | $1,131 | $1,071 |
$1,131 $1,071
$1,131 $1,071
*包含伯克希尔赚取的利息(扣除相关所得税后),2010 年为 1,900 万美元,2009 年为 3,800 万美元。
*Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $19 in 2010 and $38 in 2009.
BNSF
BNSF
(历史会计数据截至 2010 年 2 月 12 日;此后采用购买会计法)
(Historical accounting through 2/12/10; purchase accounting subsequently)
(单位:百万美元) 2010 年 2009 年
(in millions) 2010 2009
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
收入 …… 经营利润 …… 利息(净额) …… 税前利润 …… 净利润 ……
Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Operating earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest (Net) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pre-Tax earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
$16,850 4,495 507 3,988 2,459 15 $14,016 3,254 613 2,641 1,721
$16,850 4,495 507 3,988 2,459 15 $14,016 3,254 613 2,641 1,721
金融与金融产品 这是我们最小的一个板块,包含两家租赁公司——XTRA(拖车)和 CORT(家具),以及克莱顿住宅公司(Clayton Homes),全美领先的预制房生产商兼融资商。去年,我们两家租赁业务的业绩都有所改善,尽管起点很低。XTRA 的设备利用率从 2009 年的 63% 升到 2010 年的 75%,税前利润也随之从 2009 年的 1,700 万美元增至 3,500 万美元。CORT 的生意随着年份推进逐渐回暖,同时大幅收紧了运营,两相叠加,税前业绩从 2009 年亏损 300 万美元,翻成 2010 年盈利 1,800 万美元。克莱顿这边,我们生产了 23,343 套住宅,占全行业 50,046 套总量的 47%。拿它跟 1998 年的峰值比一比:那年全行业造了 372,843 套(当时我们的份额是 8%)。去年销售无论如何都会很惨,而我在 2009 年年报里点到的融资难题,还在雪上加霜。说明白些:我国政府的住房融资政策——体现在 FHA、房地美和房利美认可的那些贷款上——偏向现场建造的住宅,把预制房本该有的价格优势抵消掉了。我们为预制房买家提供的融资比任何一家公司都多,因此,对于那些正着手改革我国房贷做法的人来说,我们的经验应当很有参考价值。不妨来看一看。克莱顿持有 200,804 笔自己发放的按揭贷款(此外还买入过一些按揭组合)。这些合同签订时,借款人的平均 FICO 信用分是 648,其中 47% 在 640 及以下。你的银行家会告诉你,分数这么低的人,一般都被看作信用可疑。可即便如此,在压力重重的环境下,我们这个贷款组合表现良好。以下是我们的损失记录:
Finance and Financial Products This, our smallest sector, includes two rental companies, XTRA (trailers) and CORT (furniture), and Clayton Homes, the country’s leading producer and financer of manufactured homes. Both of our leasing businesses improved their performances last year, albeit from a very low base. XTRA increased the utilization of its equipment from 63% in 2009 to 75% in 2010, thereby raising pre-tax earnings to $35 million from $17 million in 2009. CORT experienced a pickup in business as the year progressed and also significantly tightened its operations. The combination increased its pre-tax results from a loss of $3 million in 2009 to $18 million of profit in 2010. At Clayton, we produced 23,343 homes, 47% of the industry’s total of 50,046. Contrast this to the peak year of 1998, when 372,843 homes were manufactured. (We then had an industry share of 8%.) Sales would have been terrible last year under any circumstances, but the financing problems I commented upon in the 2009 report continue to exacerbate the distress. To explain: Home-financing policies of our government, expressed through the loans found acceptable by FHA, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, favor site-built homes and work to negate the price advantage that manufactured homes offer. We finance more manufactured-home buyers than any other company. Our experience, therefore, should be instructive to those parties preparing to overhaul our country’s home-loan practices. Let’s take a look. Clayton owns 200,804 mortgages that it originated. (It also has some mortgage portfolios that it purchased.) At the origination of these contracts, the average FICO score of our borrowers was 648, and 47% were 640 or below. Your banker will tell you that people with such scores are generally regarded as questionable credits. Nevertheless, our portfolio has performed well during conditions of stress. Here’s our loss experience
过去五年,自营贷款:
during the last five years for originated loans:
净亏损占平均贷款额的百分比
Net Losses as a Percentage of Average Loans
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
2006 年 …… 2007 年 …… 2008 年 …… 2009 年 …… 2010 年 ……
Year 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.53% 1.27% 1.17% 1.86% 1.72%
1.53% 1.27% 1.17% 1.86% 1.72%
我们的借款人在失业、生病、离婚等时候会陷入困境,衰退对他们打击很大。但他们想守住自己的房子,而且当初借的数额相对收入通常都还合理。此外,我们把发放的按揭留在自己账上,既不做证券化,也不转手卖掉——放贷时若犯了蠢,代价就得自己扛。这一点,足以让人头脑清醒。要是全美的购房者都像我们这些买家一样,美国根本不会闹出那场危机。我们的做法很简单:收一笔说得过去的首付,再把每月固定还款额锁定在收入的合理比例上。这条政策既让克莱顿保住了偿付能力,也让买家守住了自己的房子。对大多数美国人来说,拥有一套住房是明智的,眼下房价更低、利率又低得诱人,尤其如此。通盘算下来,我这辈子第三好的投资,就是买下了自己的房子——尽管当年若改成租房、把买房的钱拿去买股票,我会赚得多得多。(头两笔最好的投资,是两枚结婚戒指。)为那栋房子付出的 31,500 美元,换来了我和家人 52 年美好的回忆,往后还会更多。
Our borrowers get in trouble when they lose their jobs, have health problems, get divorced, etc. The recession has hit them hard. But they want to stay in their homes, and generally they borrowed sensible amounts in relation to their income. In addition, we were keeping the originated mortgages for our own account, which means we were not securitizing or otherwise reselling them. If we were stupid in our lending, we were going to pay the price. That concentrates the mind. If home buyers throughout the country had behaved like our buyers, America would not have had the crisis that it did. Our approach was simply to get a meaningful down-payment and gear fixed monthly payments to a sensible percentage of income. This policy kept Clayton solvent and also kept buyers in their homes. Home ownership makes sense for most Americans, particularly at today’s lower prices and bargain interest rates. All things considered, the third best investment I ever made was the purchase of my home, though I would have made far more money had I instead rented and used the purchase money to buy stocks. (The two best investments were wedding rings.) For the $31,500 I paid for our house, my family and I gained 52 years of terrific memories with more to come.
16
16
可房子也可能变成一场噩梦——如果买家的眼光大过了钱包,而放贷方(往往还有政府担保护着)又来给这份幻想推波助澜。我们国家的社会目标,不该是把每个家庭塞进他们梦想中的房子,而该是把他们安顿进一套买得起的房子。
But a house can be a nightmare if the buyer’s eyes are bigger than his wallet and if a lender – often protected by a government guarantee – facilitates his fantasy. Our country’s social goal should not be to put families into the house of their dreams, but rather to put them into a house they can afford.
投资
Investments
下面列出我们在年末市值超过 10 亿美元的普通股投资。
Below we show our common stock investments that at yearend had a market value of more than $1 billion.
股数
Shares
公司
Company
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
151,610,700 225,000,000 200,000,000 29,109,637 45,022,563 97,214,584 19,259,600 3,947,555 72,391,036 25,848,838 242,163,773 78,060,769 39,037,142 358,936,125
151,610,700 225,000,000 200,000,000 29,109,637 45,022,563 97,214,584 19,259,600 3,947,555 72,391,036 25,848,838 242,163,773 78,060,769 39,037,142 358,936,125
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
美国运通公司 比亚迪股份有限公司 可口可乐公司 康菲石油 强生公司 卡夫食品公司 慕尼黑再保险
American Express Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BYD Company, Ltd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Coca-Cola Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ConocoPhillips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Johnson & Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kraft Foods Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Munich Re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
POSCO(浦项制铁)
POSCO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
宝洁公司(The Procter & Gamble Company) 赛诺菲-安万特(Sanofi-Aventis) 乐购公司(Tesco plc) 美国合众银行(U.S. Bancorp) 沃尔玛公司(Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.) 富国银行(Wells Fargo & Company) 其他 按市值计算的普通股合计
The Procter & Gamble Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sanofi-Aventis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tesco plc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S. Bancorp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wells Fargo & Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total Common Stocks Carried at Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
12/31/10 持股比例 成本* 市值(单位:百万美元)
12.6 $1,287 $6,507
9.9 232 1,182
8.6 1,299 13,154
2.0 2,028 1,982
1.6 2,749 2,785
5.6 3,207 3,063
10.5 2,896 2,924
4.6 768 1,706
2.6 464 4,657
2.0 2,060 1,656
3.0 1,414 1,608
4.1 2,401 2,105
1.1 1,893 2,105
6.8 8,015 11,123
3,020 4,956
$33,733
12/31/10 Percentage of Company Owned Cost * Market (in millions) 12.6 $ 1,287 $ 6,507 9.9 232 1,182 8.6 1,299 13,154 2.0 2,028 1,982 1.6 2,749 2,785 5.6 3,207 3,063 10.5 2,896 2,924 4.6 768 1,706 2.6 464 4,657 2.0 2,060 1,656 3.0 1,414 1,608 4.1 2,401 2,105 1.1 1,893 2,105 6.8 8,015 11,123 3,020 4,956 $33,733
$61,513
$61,513
*这是我们的实际买入价,也是我们的计税基础;GAAP 口径的“成本”在少数情形下会略有出入,因为按要求做了增记或减记。我们报告的盈利中,只体现被投资公司派给我们的股息;但这些被投资公司去年归属我们的未分配利润,超过了 20 亿美元。这些留存收益很重要。以我们的经验——就此而言,也以过去一个世纪投资者的经验——未分配利润要么被市场涨幅追平,要么被超越,只是过程极不规律。(有时,这种关联甚至反着来。正如 2009 年一位投资者所说:“这比离婚还惨。我丢了一半身家——老婆倒还在。”)展望未来,我们预期市场涨幅最终至少会赶上被投资公司为我们留存的那部分利润。
*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. In our reported earnings we reflect only the dividends our portfolio companies pay us. Our share of the undistributed earnings of these investees, however, was more than $2 billion last year. These retained earnings are important. In our experience – and, for that matter, in the experience of investors over the past century – undistributed earnings have been either matched or exceeded by market gains, albeit in a highly irregular manner. (Indeed, sometimes the correlation goes in reverse. As one investor said in 2009: “This is worse than divorce. I’ve lost half my net worth – and I still have my wife.”) In the future, we expect our market gains to eventually at least equal the earnings our investees retain.
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在前面对伯克希尔正常盈利能力的估算里,我们做了三项与未来投资收益有关的调整(但没把我刚讲过的未分配利润因素算进去)。第一项调整,无疑是负面的。去年我们谈到过五笔大额固定收益投资,一直为我们的报告利润贡献着可观的金额。其中一笔——瑞士再保险(Swiss Re)票据——已在 2011 年初被赎回;另外两笔——高盛和通用电气的优先股——也很可能在年底前消失。通用电气有权在 10 月赎回我们的优先股,而且已表明打算这么做。高盛有权提前 30 天通知后赎回,眼下被美联储(谢天谢地!)拦着,只是不幸的是,美联储很可能不久就会给高盛开绿灯。17
In our earlier estimate of Berkshire’s normal earning power, we made three adjustments that relate to future investment income (but did not include anything for the undistributed earnings factor I have just described). The first adjustment was decidedly negative. Last year, we discussed five large fixed-income investments that have been contributing substantial sums to our reported earnings. One of these – our Swiss Re note – was redeemed in the early days of 2011, and two others – our Goldman Sachs and General Electric preferred stocks – are likely to be gone by yearend. General Electric is entitled to call our preferred in October and has stated its intention to do so. Goldman Sachs has the right to call our preferred on 30 days notice, but has been held back by the Federal Reserve (bless it!), which unfortunately will likely give Goldman the green light before long. 17
这三家要赎回的公司,都得为此付给我们一笔溢价——合计约 14 亿美元——但即便如此,这些赎回仍然不受欢迎:一旦发生,我们的盈利能力就会大幅下降。这是坏消息。不过,很可能会有两方面的抵消。年底时,我们持有 380 亿美元现金等价物,它们在整个 2010 年只赚了一点点。可总有一天,更高的利率会回来,那至少能给我们的投资收入添上 5 亿美元——也许远不止。货币市场收益率的这种回升不会很快到来,但在估算“正常”盈利能力时,把改善后的利率考虑进去是合理的。而且,即便利率还没抬头,我们也可能撞上好运,找到机会把部分现金储备投出去、赚取像样的回报。这一天对我来说是越早越好:套用一句改过的伊索寓言——一辆敞篷车里的姑娘,顶得上电话簿里的五个。此外,我们当前持有的普通股,派息几乎肯定会增加,涨得最多的很可能是富国银行。过去两年,那位在高盛问题上帮过我们的朋友——美联储——冻结了各大银行(不论强弱)的股息水平。富国银行虽在衰退最惨烈的时候始终稳健经营,如今财务实力和盈利能力都极强,却被迫维持着人为压低的派息。(我们不怪美联储:出于种种原因,在危机及其余波期间,一刀切地冻结股息是说得通的。)总有一天,很可能就在不久之后,美联储的这些限制会取消,富国银行到时就能恢复股东应得的合理派息政策。到那时,单是这一只股票,我们每年拿到的股息就有望多出好几亿美元。我们持有的其他公司,也很可能提高派息。可口可乐在我们买完它股票的次年——1995 年——给我们派了 8,800 万美元;此后每一年,可口可乐都在提高股息。2011 年,我们几乎肯定会从可口可乐拿到 3.76 亿美元,比去年多 2,400 万美元。我预计,不出十年,这 3.76 亿美元还会再翻一番;而到那时,若我们分得的可口可乐年度盈利,超过了当初这笔投资的全部成本,我一点都不会意外。对一门好生意来说,时间是朋友。总的来说,我相信我们的“正常”投资收益至少能与 2010 年持平,尽管前面说的那些赎回,会削减我们 2011 年、或许还有 2012 年的进账。
All three of the companies redeeming must pay us a premium to do so – in aggregate about $1.4 billion – but all of the redemptions are nevertheless unwelcome. After they occur, our earning power will be significantly reduced. That’s the bad news. There are two probable offsets. At yearend we held $38 billion of cash equivalents that have been earning a pittance throughout 2010. At some point, however, better rates will return. They will add at least $500 million – and perhaps much more – to our investment income. That sort of increase in money-market yields is unlikely to come soon. It is appropriate, nevertheless, for us to include improved rates in an estimate of “normal” earning power. Even before higher rates come about, furthermore, we could get lucky and find an opportunity to use some of our cash hoard at decent returns. That day can’t come too soon for me: To update Aesop, a girl in a convertible is worth five in the phone book. In addition, dividends on our current common stock holdings will almost certainly increase. The largest gain is likely to come at Wells Fargo. The Federal Reserve, our friend in respect to Goldman Sachs, has frozen dividend levels at major banks, whether strong or weak, during the last two years. Wells Fargo, though consistently prospering throughout the worst of the recession and currently enjoying enormous financial strength and earning power, has therefore been forced to maintain an artificially low payout. (We don’t fault the Fed: For various reasons, an across-the-board freeze made sense during the crisis and its immediate aftermath.) At some point, probably soon, the Fed’s restrictions will cease. Wells Fargo can then reinstate the rational dividend policy that its owners deserve. At that time, we would expect our annual dividends from just this one security to increase by several hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Other companies we hold are likely to increase their dividends as well. Coca-Cola paid us $88 million in 1995, the year after we finished purchasing the stock. Every year since, Coke has increased its dividend. In 2011, we will almost certainly receive $376 million from Coke, up $24 million from last year. Within ten years, I would expect that $376 million to double. By the end of that period, I wouldn’t be surprised to see our share of Coke’s annual earnings exceed 100% of what we paid for the investment. Time is the friend of the wonderful business. Overall, I believe our “normal” investment income will at least equal what we realized in 2010, though the redemptions I described will cut our take in 2011 and perhaps 2012 as well.
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去年夏天,卢·辛普森告诉我他想退休。卢才 74 岁——在伯克希尔,查理和我觉得这个年纪只配当学徒——所以他这通电话让我意外。卢 1979 年加入 GEICO 任投资经理,他对那家公司的贡献无从估量。2004 年年报里,我详细记过他管理股票的成绩,后来之所以不再更新,只因为他的表现衬得我太难看。这种事,谁受得了?卢从不爱张扬自己的本事,可我要替他说:一句话,卢是投资界的顶尖高手之一。我们会想他。
Last summer, Lou Simpson told me he wished to retire. Since Lou was a mere 74 – an age Charlie and I regard as appropriate only for trainees at Berkshire – his call was a surprise. Lou joined GEICO as its investment manager in 1979, and his service to that company has been invaluable. In the 2004 Annual Report, I detailed his record with equities, and I have omitted updates only because his performance made mine look bad. Who needs that? Lou has never been one to advertise his talents. But I will: Simply put, Lou is one of the investment greats. We will miss him.
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四年前我告诉过你们,我们得再添一两位更年轻的投资经理,好在查理、卢和我都不在时接手。当时,CEO 一职我已有多位出色的候选人随时可以顶上(如今依然如此),投资这一块却没有后备。要找出一大批近期业绩漂亮的投资经理并不难,但过往成绩虽然重要,在判断未来表现时却远远不够。成绩是怎么取得的至关重要;经理人对风险的理解与敏感同样关键——而风险绝不该用贝塔系数去衡量,那是太多学院派人士的选择。在风险这一条上,我们要找的是一种很难评估的本事:预判从未出现过的经济情景会带来什么后果。最后,我们希望这个人把为伯克希尔工作看得远不止是一份差事。18
Four years ago, I told you that we needed to add one or more younger investment managers to carry on when Charlie, Lou and I weren’t around. At that time we had multiple outstanding candidates immediately available for my CEO job (as we do now), but we did not have backup in the investment area. It’s easy to identify many investment managers with great recent records. But past results, though important, do not suffice when prospective performance is being judged. How the record has been achieved is crucial, as is the manager’s understanding of – and sensitivity to – risk (which in no way should be measured by beta, the choice of too many academics). In respect to the risk criterion, we were looking for someone with a hard-to-evaluate skill: the ability to anticipate the effects of economic scenarios not previously observed. Finally, we wanted someone who would regard working for Berkshire as far more than a job. 18
查理和我头一回见到托德·康布斯,就知道他符合我们的要求。和当年的卢一样,托德将拿一份固定薪水,外加一笔视其相对标普 500 指数表现而定的浮动酬劳。我们还设了递延和结转机制,免得业绩忽上忽下时,他领到不该领的报酬。对冲基金界见识过普通合伙人的种种恶行:上涨时他们分走巨额收益,一旦业绩变糟,便腰缠万贯地抽身而去,任凭有限合伙人把先前的盈利又全数吐回去。有时这帮人转头又火速开一只新基金,好让自己立刻分享未来的利润,而不必先填平过去的窟窿。把钱交给这类经理人的投资者,该被叫作冤大头,而不是合伙人。只要我还是 CEO,伯克希尔绝大部分的持仓——债券也好,股票也罢——就仍由我来打理。托德起步管理的资金在 10 亿到 30 亿美元之间,这个额度他每年可以重新设定。他的重心在股票,但并不限于此。(基金顾问喜欢把风格塞进“多空”“宏观”“国际股票”之类的格子里。在伯克希尔,我们唯一的风格格子叫“聪明”。)日后若能找到合适的人,我们可能会再添一两位投资经理。真那样的话,我们大概会让每位经理人绩效酬劳的 80% 取决于他自己管的组合,20% 取决于其他经理人的组合——我们要的薪酬体系,既为个人成功给出厚报,又鼓励合作而非内斗。等查理和我都不在了,我们的投资经理将按彼时 CEO 和董事会定下的方式,对整个组合负责。由于优秀的投资者在买生意时能提供有用的视角,我们会就一桩潜在收购明智与否征询他们的意见——但不给他们投票权。任何重大收购,最终当然还是由董事会拍板。补一句:我们发布托德加盟的新闻稿时,不少评论人士说他“名不见经传”,纳闷我们为何不找个“大牌”。我倒想问问,他们当中有几人在 1979 年听说过卢、在 1985 年听说过阿吉特,又或者更早,在 1959 年听说过查理?我们要找的,是一匹两岁的“秘书处”,而不是一匹十岁的“海饼干”。(哎呀——对一个 80 岁的 CEO 来说,这个比喻大概不算高明。)
When Charlie and I met Todd Combs, we knew he fit our requirements. Todd, as was the case with Lou, will be paid a salary plus a contingent payment based on his performance relative to the S&P. We have arrangements in place for deferrals and carryforwards that will prevent see-saw performance being met by undeserved payments. The hedge-fund world has witnessed some terrible behavior by general partners who have received huge payouts on the upside and who then, when bad results occurred, have walked away rich, with their limited partners losing back their earlier gains. Sometimes these same general partners thereafter quickly started another fund so that they could immediately participate in future profits without having to overcome their past losses. Investors who put money with such managers should be labeled patsies, not partners. As long as I am CEO, I will continue to manage the great majority of Berkshire’s holdings, both bonds and equities. Todd initially will manage funds in the range of one to three billion dollars, an amount he can reset annually. His focus will be equities but he is not restricted to that form of investment. (Fund consultants like to require style boxes such as “long-short,” “macro,” “international equities.” At Berkshire our only style box is “smart.”) Over time, we may add one or two investment managers if we find the right individuals. Should we do that, we will probably have 80% of each manager’s performance compensation be dependent on his or her own portfolio and 20% on that of the other manager(s). We want a compensation system that pays off big for individual success but that also fosters cooperation, not competition. When Charlie and I are no longer around, our investment manager(s) will have responsibility for the entire portfolio in a manner then set by the CEO and Board of Directors. Because good investors bring a useful perspective to the purchase of businesses, we would expect them to be consulted – but not to have a vote – on the wisdom of possible acquisitions. In the end, of course, the Board will make the call on any major acquisition. One footnote: When we issued a press release about Todd’s joining us, a number of commentators pointed out that he was “little-known” and expressed puzzlement that we didn’t seek a “big-name.” I wonder how many of them would have known of Lou in 1979, Ajit in 1985, or, for that matter, Charlie in 1959. Our goal was to find a 2-year-old Secretariat, not a 10-year-old Seabiscuit. (Whoops – that may not be the smartest metaphor for an 80-year-old CEO to use.)
衍生品
Derivatives
两年前,在 2008 年年报里,我告诉过你们,伯克希尔是 251 份衍生品合约的当事方(不含子公司运营所需的那些合约,比如中美能源的,以及通用再保险留下的少数几份)。今天,可比的数字是 203 份,这一数字既反映了我们组合里新添的几份,也反映了一些合约的解约或到期。我们仍持有的头寸——全都由我本人负责——大致分两类,而我们将这两类都视作让我们参与了类似保险的活动:我们收取保费,承接别人想甩掉的风险。事实上,做这些衍生品交易时,我们的思考过程与做保险业务时一模一样。你们还该明白一点:签约时我们是预先收钱的,因此不承担对手方风险。这一点很重要。第一类衍生品,由 2004 至 2008 年间签下的一批合约组成,约定一旦某些高收益指数里的成分公司发生债券违约,便由我们赔付。除少数例外,我们承担这些风险的期限为五年,每份合约覆盖 100 家公司。这批合约,我们总共收了 34 亿美元保费。当年我在 2007 年年报里头一回向你们提起时曾说,我预计这些合约会给我们带来一笔“承保利润”——也就是损失会小于我们收进的保费。此外,我还说过,我们会从浮存金的使用中受益。19
Two years ago, in the 2008 Annual Report, I told you that Berkshire was a party to 251 derivatives contracts (other than those used for operations at our subsidiaries, such as MidAmerican, and the few left over at Gen Re). Today, the comparable number is 203, a figure reflecting both a few additions to our portfolio and the unwinding or expiration of some contracts. Our continuing positions, all of which I am personally responsible for, fall largely into two categories. We view both categories as engaging us in insurance-like activities in which we receive premiums for assuming risks that others wish to shed. Indeed, the thought processes we employ in these derivatives transactions are identical to those we use in our insurance business. You should also understand that we get paid up-front when we enter into the contracts and therefore run no counterparty risk. That’s important. Our first category of derivatives consists of a number of contracts, written in 2004-2008, that required payments by us if there were bond defaults by companies included in certain high-yield indices. With minor exceptions, we were exposed to these risks for five years, with each contract covering 100 companies. In aggregate, we received premiums of $3.4 billion for these contracts. When I originally told you in our 2007 Annual Report about them, I said that I expected the contracts would deliver us an “underwriting profit,” meaning that our losses would be less than the premiums we received. In addition, I said we would benefit from the use of float. 19
后来的事你们太清楚了:我们遇到了一场金融恐慌和一轮严重衰退。高收益指数里的一批公司违约,导致我们赔付了 25 亿美元。不过如今,这块风险敞口大体已成过去,因为多数风险较高的合约都已到期。因此,几乎可以肯定,我们会像当初预期的那样,拿到一笔承保利润。此外,在合约存续期内,我们平均还使用了约 20 亿美元的无息浮存金。一句话:保费我们收得恰到好处,正是它,在三年前商业环境急转直下时护住了我们。
我们另一大衍生品头寸——合约名叫“股票看跌期权”——是我们为希望给自己提供保护、防范美国、英国、欧洲和日本股价可能下跌的当事方承保的。这些合约挂钩各类股指,比如美国的标普 500、英国的富时 100。2004 至 2008 年间,我们为 47 份这类合约收了 48 亿美元保费,多数期限长达 15 年。这些合约只认到期日那天的指数价格,在那之前不需支付任何款项。先向你们报个最新情况:2010 年底,应对手方之请,我们解掉了 8 份合约,到期日都在 2021 至 2028 年之间。这些合约我们当初收了 6.47 亿美元保费,解约时我们付出 4.25 亿美元,于是实现了 2.22 亿美元收益,同时那 6.47 亿美元还让我们无息、无限制地用了约三年。2010 年那几笔交易了结之后,年底账上还剩 39 份股票看跌期权。这些合约在签约时,我们收进的保费是 42 亿美元。这些合约的未来,自然充满未知,但不妨提供一个观察角度:如果相关指数在合约到期日的价格,与 2010 年 12 月 31 日相同——且汇率不变——那么就 2018 至 2026 年间到期的合约而言,我们要赔付 38 亿美元,这个数字不妨叫作“结算价值”。可在年底的资产负债表上,我们为这些剩余看跌期权计提的负债却是 67 亿美元。换句话说,若相关指数价格自那天起原地不动,我们在未来几年会记下一笔 29 亿美元的收益,那正是 67 亿美元负债与 38 亿美元结算价值之间的差额。我相信股价很可能上涨,从现在到结算日,我们这块负债会大幅缩水;果真如此,我们从此刻算起的收益还会更大。但这当然远非板上钉钉。板上钉钉的是:剩下这 42 亿美元“浮存金”,平均还能再让我们用约十年。(这笔浮存金,连同高收益合约产生的那笔,都不算在 660 亿美元的保险浮存金数字里。)钱是可以互相替代的,不妨把这些资金的一部分,看作我们买下 BNSF 的助力。我以前跟你们说过,我们几乎所有的衍生品合约都无须缴纳抵押品——正是这一条,压低了我们本可收取的保费。可也正是这一条,让我们在金融危机里心里踏实,能在那些日子里放手去敲定几桩划算的收购。为此少收几笔衍生品保费,事后证明太值了。
关于报告与误报:要紧的数字,与无关紧要的数字
在这封信前面,我列出了几个查理和我认为在估值伯克希尔、衡量其进展方面有用的数字。这里,我们偏要盯住一个被我们略过、却被众多媒体奉为圭臬的数字:净利润。这个数字在多数公司或许很重要,在伯克希尔却几乎总是毫无意义。无论我们的生意做得如何,查理和我都能——完全合法地——把任何一个特定期间的净利润,变成我们想要的几乎任何数字。20
Subsequently, as you know too well, we encountered both a financial panic and a severe recession. A number of the companies in the high-yield indices failed, which required us to pay losses of $2.5 billion. Today, however, our exposure is largely behind us because most of our higher-risk contracts have expired. Consequently, it appears almost certain that we will earn an underwriting profit as we originally anticipated. In addition, we have had the use of interest-free float that averaged about $2 billion over the life of the contracts. In short, we charged the right premium, and that protected us when business conditions turned terrible three years ago. Our other large derivatives position – whose contracts go by the name of “equity puts” – involves insurance we wrote for parties wishing to protect themselves against a possible decline in equity prices in the U.S., U.K., Europe and Japan. These contracts are tied to various equity indices, such as the S&P 500 in the U.S. and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. In the 2004-2008 period, we received $4.8 billion of premiums for 47 of these contracts, most of which ran for 15 years. On these contracts, only the price of the indices on the termination date counts: No payments can be required before then. As a first step in updating you about these contracts, I can report that late in 2010, at the instigation of our counterparty, we unwound eight contracts, all of them due between 2021 and 2028. We had originally received $647 million in premiums for these contracts, and the unwinding required us to pay $425 million. Consequently, we realized a gain of $222 million and also had the interest-free and unrestricted use of that $647 million for about three years. Those 2010 transactions left us with 39 equity put contracts remaining on our books at yearend. On these, at their initiation, we received premiums of $4.2 billion. The future of these contracts is, of course, uncertain. But here is one perspective on them. If the prices of the relevant indices are the same at the contract expiration dates as these prices were on December 31, 2010 – and foreign exchange rates are unchanged – we would owe $3.8 billion on expirations occurring from 2018 to 2026. You can call this amount “settlement value.” On our yearend balance sheet, however, we carry the liability for those remaining equity puts at $6.7 billion. In other words, if the prices of the relevant indices remain unchanged from that date, we will record a $2.9 billion gain in the years to come, that being the difference between the liability figure of $6.7 billion and the settlement value of $3.8 billion. I believe that equity prices will very likely increase and that our liability will fall significantly between now and settlement date. If so, our gain from this point will be even greater. But that, of course, is far from a sure thing. What is sure is that we will have the use of our remaining “float” of $4.2 billion for an average of about 10 more years. (Neither this float nor that arising from the high-yield contracts is included in the insurance float figure of $66 billion.) Since money is fungible, think of a portion of these funds as contributing to the purchase of BNSF. As I have told you before, almost all of our derivatives contracts are free of any obligation to post collateral – a fact that cut the premiums we could otherwise have charged. But that fact also left us feeling comfortable during the financial crisis, allowing us in those days to commit to some advantageous purchases. Foregoing some additional derivatives premiums proved to be well worth it. On Reporting and Misreporting: The Numbers That Count and Those That Don’t Earlier in this letter, I pointed out some numbers that Charlie and I find useful in valuing Berkshire and measuring its progress. Let’s focus here on a number we omitted, but which many in the media feature above all others: net income. Important though that number may be at most companies, it is almost always meaningless at Berkshire. Regardless of how our businesses might be doing, Charlie and I could – quite legally – cause net income in any given period to be almost any number we would like. 20
我们之所以有这份灵活,是因为投资上的已实现损益会计入净利润,而未实现收益(多数情况下,未实现损失也一样)则不计入。打个比方:假设伯克希尔某年未实现收益增加了 100 亿美元,同时有 10 亿美元的已实现亏损。我们的净利润——只算那笔亏损——就会报得比经营利润还低;倘若前一年我们恰好实现了收益,标题没准会宣称我们盈利下滑了百分之 X,而实际上,我们的生意可能大有起色。如果我们真把净利润当回事,大可靠着手上海量的未实现收益,定期变现来给它注水。不过请放心:查理和我从没为了让即将公布的净利润好看,而去卖掉哪怕一只证券。我们俩都对拿数字“做游戏”深恶痛绝——这种把戏在 1990 年代的美国企业界一度泛滥,如今仍未绝迹,只是没从前那么频繁、那么明目张胆罢了。经营利润尽管有些短板,但大体上还算一把合理的尺子,能量出我们的生意做得如何。至于我们的净利润数字,请你无视它。监管规定我们必须向你报告这个数;但你若发现记者们盯着它不放,那说明的更多是他们的水平,而非我们的。已实现和未实现的损益,都会完整地体现在我们账面价值的计算里。盯住这个指标的变化,再盯住我们经营利润的走向,你就走对路了。
We have that flexibility because realized gains or losses on investments go into the net income figure, whereas unrealized gains (and, in most cases, losses) are excluded. For example, imagine that Berkshire had a $10 billion increase in unrealized gains in a given year and concurrently had $1 billion of realized losses. Our net income – which would count only the loss – would be reported as less than our operating income. If we had meanwhile realized gains in the previous year, headlines might proclaim that our earnings were down X% when in reality our business might be much improved. If we really thought net income important, we could regularly feed realized gains into it simply because we have a huge amount of unrealized gains upon which to draw. Rest assured, though, that Charlie and I have never sold a security because of the effect a sale would have on the net income we were soon to report. We both have a deep disgust for “game playing” with numbers, a practice that was rampant throughout corporate America in the 1990s and still persists, though it occurs less frequently and less blatantly than it used to. Operating earnings, despite having some shortcomings, are in general a reasonable guide as to how our businesses are doing. Ignore our net income figure, however. Regulations require that we report it to you. But if you find reporters focusing on it, that will speak more to their performance than ours. Both realized and unrealized gains and losses are fully reflected in the calculation of our book value. Pay attention to the changes in that metric and to the course of our operating earnings, and you will be on the right track.
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顺便说一句,我实在忍不住要指出,报告净利润能有多么反复无常。假如我们那些股票看跌期权的终止日恰好是 2010 年 6 月 30 日,那天我们就得向对手方赔付 64 亿美元。接下来那个季度证券价格普遍上涨,到 9 月 30 日,这个数字降到了 58 亿美元。可我们给这些合约估值所用的布莱克–斯科尔斯公式,却要求我们在这段时间里,把资产负债表上的负债从 89 亿美元抬高到 96 亿美元;这一变动,在计入应计税款的影响后,把我们当季净利润削掉了 4.55 亿美元。查理和我都认为,布莱克–斯科尔斯用在长期期权上,会算出极为不当的数值。两年前,我们在这份报告里举过一个荒唐的例子;更实在的是,我们用真金白银下注,签下了那些股票看跌期权合约——这等于在暗示:对手方或其客户所用的布莱克–斯科尔斯算法有毛病。可尽管如此,我们呈报财报时仍在沿用这个公式。布莱克–斯科尔斯是期权估值公认的标准——几乎所有顶尖商学院都在教它——我们若偏离它,就会落个会计草率的罪名。不仅如此,真那么做,我们还会给审计师出一道无法逾越的难题:他们有些客户是我们的对手方,对于我们持有的同一批合约,那些人用的正是布莱克–斯科尔斯的估值;两边数值一旦相差悬殊,审计师就不可能同时为两套数字的准确性出具证明。布莱克–斯科尔斯之所以讨审计师和监管者的喜欢,一个原因就是它能给出一个精确的数字,而这种数字,查理和我给不出来。我们相信这些合约的真实负债,远低于布莱克–斯科尔斯算出的结果,可我们说不出一个确切的数——正如我们说不出 GEICO、BNSF、乃至伯克希尔·哈撒韦本身的精确价值一样。说不准这个数,并不让我们心慌:我们宁可大致正确,也不要精确地出错。约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷思曾狡黠地说,经济学家在思想上最“节俭”——研究生阶段学到的那点东西,他们能用上一辈子。大学的金融系往往也是这副做派。看看整个 1970 年代和 1980 年代,几乎人人都死抱着有效市场理论不放,把那些足以推翻它的有力事实轻蔑地斥为“异常现象”。(我一向爱看这类辩解:地平说协会大概也会把一艘船绕地球一圈,当成一桩恼人却无关紧要的异常吧。)21
As a p.s., I can’t resist pointing out just how capricious reported net income can be. Had our equity puts had a termination date of June 30, 2010, we would have been required to pay $6.4 billion to our counterparties at that date. Security prices then generally rose in the next quarter, a move that brought the corresponding figure down to $5.8 billion on September 30th. Yet the Black-Scholes formula that we use in valuing these contracts required us to increase our balance-sheet liability during this period from $8.9 billion to $9.6 billion, a change that, after the effect of tax accruals, reduced our net income for the quarter by $455 million. Both Charlie and I believe that Black-Scholes produces wildly inappropriate values when applied to long-dated options. We set out one absurd example in these pages two years ago. More tangibly, we put our money where our mouth was by entering into our equity put contracts. By doing so, we implicitly asserted that the Black-Scholes calculations used by our counterparties or their customers were faulty. We continue, nevertheless, to use that formula in presenting our financial statements. Black-Scholes is the accepted standard for option valuation – almost all leading business schools teach it – and we would be accused of shoddy accounting if we deviated from it. Moreover, we would present our auditors with an insurmountable problem were we to do that: They have clients who are our counterparties and who use BlackScholes values for the same contracts we hold. It would be impossible for our auditors to attest to the accuracy of both their values and ours were the two far apart. Part of the appeal of Black-Scholes to auditors and regulators is that it produces a precise number. Charlie and I can’t supply one of those. We believe the true liability of our contracts to be far lower than that calculated by Black-Scholes, but we can’t come up with an exact figure – anymore than we can come up with a precise value for GEICO, BNSF, or for Berkshire Hathaway itself. Our inability to pinpoint a number doesn’t bother us: We would rather be approximately right than precisely wrong. John Kenneth Galbraith once slyly observed that economists were most economical with ideas: They made the ones learned in graduate school last a lifetime. University finance departments often behave similarly. Witness the tenacity with which almost all clung to the theory of efficient markets throughout the 1970s and 1980s, dismissively calling powerful facts that refuted it “anomalies.” (I always love explanations of that kind: The Flat Earth Society probably views a ship’s circling of the globe as an annoying, but inconsequential, anomaly.) 21
学者们如今把布莱克–斯科尔斯公式当成天经地义的真理来教,这做法需要重新掂量。就此而论,学界那种一门心思钻研期权估值的倾向,同样需要重新掂量。你完全可以在丝毫不会给期权估值的情况下,成为一名极其成功的投资者。学生真正该学的,是怎么给一门生意估值——这才是投资的全部。
Academics’ current practice of teaching Black-Scholes as revealed truth needs re-examination. For that matter, so does the academic’s inclination to dwell on the valuation of options. You can be highly successful as an investor without having the slightest ability to value an option. What students should be learning is how to value a business. That’s what investing is all about.
人生与债务
Life and Debt
赛车有一条根本原则:要想第一个冲线,你先得跑完全程。这条准则同样适用于生意,也指引着我们在伯克希尔的每一个动作。毫无疑问,有些人靠借来的钱发了大财;可借钱也是通向赤贫的一条路。杠杆奏效时,会放大你的收益:配偶觉得你精明,邻居看着眼红。但杠杆会上瘾。一旦尝过它的甜头,极少有人肯退回到更稳妥的做法。而正如我们三年级就学过——有些人在 2008 年又补了一课——无论一串正数多么漂亮,只要乘上一个零,就统统化为乌有。历史告诉我们,杠杆太容易生出零来,哪怕用它的是极聪明的人。当然,杠杆对企业同样可能是致命的。负债累累的公司,往往以为债务到期时总能再融资。这个假设通常成立;但偶尔,或因公司自身出了问题,或因全球信贷骤然收紧,到期的债务就非得用现金实打实地还上不可,而这活儿,只有现金干得了。到那时,借款人才明白:信贷就像氧气,充裕时你不会留意它的存在,一旦缺失,你眼里就只剩下它。哪怕只是短暂断供,也足以把一家公司逼到跪地。事实上,2008 年 9 月,信贷在经济诸多领域一夜蒸发,那份凶险,几乎把我们整个国家也逼到了跪地的边缘。凡是可能给伯克希尔的安康带来一丝威胁的事,查理和我都毫无兴趣。(我俩年纪加起来 167 岁,从头再来可不在我们的遗愿清单上。)我们一刻不敢忘记:你们,我们的合伙人,把往往是储蓄中相当大一块的钱托付给了我们;此外,重要的慈善事业也系于我们的审慎;还有,许多因我们投保人肇事而致残的受害者,正指望着我们在几十年后如数付出赔偿。为了多赚区区几个点的回报,就拿这些人所需的一切去冒险,那是极不负责任的。一点个人往事,或许能部分解释我们为何如此厌恶金融冒险。我直到查理 35 岁那年才认识他,尽管他从小长大的地方,离我住了 52 年的家不到 100 码,而且他念的那所奥马哈市中心公立高中,也正是我父亲、妻子、孩子和两个孙辈的母校。不过,查理和我小时候都在我外祖父的杂货店里干过活,只是前后错开了大约五年。我外祖父名叫欧内斯特(Ernest),世上大概没有比他更名副其实的人了——在欧内斯特手下干活,哪怕只是个理货的,没有谁不被这段经历打上烙印。对面那页,你可以读到欧内斯特 1939 年写给他小儿子、也就是我弗雷德叔叔的一封信;类似的信,他也寄给了另外四个孩子。我至今还留着写给我爱丽丝姑姑的那一封——1970 年,我以遗产执行人身份打开她的保险箱时,连同 1,000 美元现金一起翻了出来。欧内斯特没上过商学院——事实上连高中都没念完——却懂得流动性对确保生存有多要紧。在伯克希尔,我们把他那套“1,000 美元方案”又往前推了一步,承诺至少持有 100 亿美元现金,还不算受监管的公用事业和铁路业务里那部分。正因为有这份承诺,我们手头通常至少备着 200 亿美元现金,这样既扛得住前所未见的保险损失(迄今最大的一笔约 30 亿美元,来自卡特里娜飓风,那是保险业史上代价最高的一场灾难),又能在金融动荡时迅速抓住收购或投资的机会。
The fundamental principle of auto racing is that to finish first, you must first finish. That dictum is equally applicable to business and guides our every action at Berkshire. Unquestionably, some people have become very rich through the use of borrowed money. However, that’s also been a way to get very poor. When leverage works, it magnifies your gains. Your spouse thinks you’re clever, and your neighbors get envious. But leverage is addictive. Once having profited from its wonders, very few people retreat to more conservative practices. And as we all learned in third grade – and some relearned in 2008 – any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people. Leverage, of course, can be lethal to businesses as well. Companies with large debts often assume that these obligations can be refinanced as they mature. That assumption is usually valid. Occasionally, though, either because of company-specific problems or a worldwide shortage of credit, maturities must actually be met by payment. For that, only cash will do the job. Borrowers then learn that credit is like oxygen. When either is abundant, its presence goes unnoticed. When either is missing, that’s all that is noticed. Even a short absence of credit can bring a company to its knees. In September 2008, in fact, its overnight disappearance in many sectors of the economy came dangerously close to bringing our entire country to its knees. Charlie and I have no interest in any activity that could pose the slightest threat to Berkshire’s wellbeing. (With our having a combined age of 167, starting over is not on our bucket list.) We are forever conscious of the fact that you, our partners, have entrusted us with what in many cases is a major portion of your savings. In addition, important philanthropy is dependent on our prudence. Finally, many disabled victims of accidents caused by our insureds are counting on us to deliver sums payable decades from now. It would be irresponsible for us to risk what all these constituencies need just to pursue a few points of extra return. A little personal history may partially explain our extreme aversion to financial adventurism. I didn’t meet Charlie until he was 35, though he grew up within 100 yards of where I have lived for 52 years and also attended the same inner-city public high school in Omaha from which my father, wife, children and two grandchildren graduated. Charlie and I did, however, both work as young boys at my grandfather’s grocery store, though our periods of employment were separated by about five years. My grandfather’s name was Ernest, and perhaps no man was more aptly named. No one worked for Ernest, even as a stock boy, without being shaped by the experience. On the facing page you can read a letter sent in 1939 by Ernest to his youngest son, my Uncle Fred. Similar letters went to his other four children. I still have the letter sent to my Aunt Alice, which I found – along with $1,000 of cash – when, as executor of her estate, I opened her safe deposit box in 1970. Ernest never went to business school – he never in fact finished high school – but he understood the importance of liquidity as a condition for assured survival. At Berkshire, we have taken his $1,000 solution a bit further and have pledged that we will hold at least $10 billion of cash, excluding that held at our regulated utility and railroad businesses. Because of that commitment, we customarily keep at least $20 billion on hand so that we can both withstand unprecedented insurance losses (our largest to date having been about $3 billion from Katrina, the insurance industry’s most expensive catastrophe) and quickly seize acquisition or investment opportunities, even during times of financial turmoil.
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我们的现金绝大部分放在美国国债里,不去碰那些收益率高出几个基点的短期证券——早在 2008 年 9 月商业票据和货币市场基金的脆弱性暴露之前,我们就一直守着这条规矩。我们赞同投资作家雷·德沃(Ray DeVoe)的观察:“为追逐收益而亏掉的钱,比被枪指着抢走的还多。”在伯克希尔,我们不靠银行授信,也不签那种可能要求追缴抵押品的合约,除非追缴的额度相对于我们的流动资产小到可以忽略。此外,过去 40 年里,伯克希尔没有一分钱现金用于分红或回购;相反,我们把全部盈利都留下来强化业务,如今这份强化每月约 10 亿美元。就这样,这 40 年间,我们的净资产从 4,800 万美元增长到 1,570 亿美元,内在价值的增长还要大得多。没有哪家美国公司能像这样锲而不舍地垒高财务实力。对杠杆如此谨慎,只让我们的回报少了一点点;而手握充沛的流动性,却能让我们睡得安稳。更要紧的是,每当经济中偶尔爆发金融动荡,别人只顾着自保求生时,我们无论在财力还是心力上,都做好了进攻的准备——正是这份底气,让我们在 2008 年雷曼倒闭后那 25 天的恐慌里,一举投出了 156 亿美元。
We keep our cash largely in U.S. Treasury bills and avoid other short-term securities yielding a few more basis points, a policy we adhered to long before the frailties of commercial paper and money market funds became apparent in September 2008. We agree with investment writer Ray DeVoe’s observation, “More money has been lost reaching for yield than at the point of a gun.” At Berkshire, we don’t rely on bank lines, and we don’t enter into contracts that could require postings of collateral except for amounts that are tiny in relation to our liquid assets. Furthermore, not a dime of cash has left Berkshire for dividends or share repurchases during the past 40 years. Instead, we have retained all of our earnings to strengthen our business, a reinforcement now running about $1 billion per month. Our net worth has thus increased from $48 million to $157 billion during those four decades and our intrinsic value has grown far more. No other American corporation has come close to building up its financial strength in this unrelenting way. By being so cautious in respect to leverage, we penalize our returns by a minor amount. Having loads of liquidity, though, lets us sleep well. Moreover, during the episodes of financial chaos that occasionally erupt in our economy, we will be equipped both financially and emotionally to play offense while others scramble for survival. That’s what allowed us to invest $15.6 billion in 25 days of panic following the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008.
股东大会
The Annual Meeting
股东大会将于 4 月 30 日(星期六)举行。主持人由我们总部的凯莉·基泽(Carrie Kizer)担任,她今年定的主题是“飞机、火车和汽车”,正好给 NetJets、BNSF 和比亚迪一个大显身手的机会。一如往年,Qwest Center 的大门早上 7 点开启,8:30 放映一部全新的伯克希尔影片。9:30 我们直接进入问答环节,中间在 Qwest 的摊位处午休,一直持续到下午 3:30。短暂休息后,查理和我在 3:45 召开股东大会。你若打算在当天的提问时段中途离场,请趁查理讲话时走(动作要快;他说话很干脆)。当然,离场最好的理由是去购物。为此,我们会把紧挨会议区、面积达 194,300 平方英尺的展厅,塞满几十家伯克希尔子公司的产品。去年你们尽了力,多数摊位都创下了销售纪录:短短九个小时里,我们卖出 1,053 双 Justin 靴子、12,416 磅喜诗糖果、8,000 份冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)暴风雪冰淇淋,以及 8,800 把 Quikut 刀具(相当于每分钟 16 把)。但你们还能做得更好。记住:凡是说金钱买不到快乐的人,只是没找对购物的地方。GEICO 会摆一个摊位,由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇,随时给你报车险价。多数情况下,GEICO 都能给你一份股东折扣(通常 8%)。这项特别优惠,在我们经营的 51 个司法辖区里有 44 个允许(补一句:如果你本就符合别的折扣条件,比如某些团体享有的优惠,这份股东折扣不能叠加)。带上你现有保险的详细资料,来看看我们能不能帮你省钱——我相信,至少你们中有一半人可以。别忘了逛逛“书虫”书摊。那里有 60 多种图书和 DVD,包括中文版的《穷查理宝典》——这本讲我搭档的书一向很受欢迎。看不懂中文又何妨?买一本随身带着,准能让你显得见多识广、学问不浅。要是需要把买的书寄走,附近就有邮寄服务。你若是出手阔绰的主顾——哪怕只是来看个热闹——请在周六中午到下午 5:00 之间,去奥马哈机场东侧的 Elliott Aviation。那里停着一队 NetJets 飞机,足以让你心跳加速。坐大巴来,坐私人飞机走。
The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, April 30th. Carrie Kizer from our home office will be the ringmaster, and her theme this year is Planes, Trains and Automobiles. This gives NetJets, BNSF and BYD a chance to show off. As always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m., and a new Berkshire movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30 we will go directly to the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. (Act fast; he can be terse.) The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do that by filling the 194,300-squarefoot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period, we sold 1,053 pairs of Justin boots, 12,416 pounds of See’s candy, 8,000 Dairy Queen Blizzards® and 8,800 Quikut knives (that’s 16 knives per minute). But you can do better. Remember: Anyone who says money can’t buy happiness simply hasn’t learned where to shop. GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least half of you, I believe we can. Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry more than 60 books and DVDs, including the Chinese language edition of Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the ever-popular book about my partner. So what if you can’t read Chinese? Just buy a copy and carry it around; it will make you look urbane and erudite. Should you need to ship your book purchases, a shipping service will be available nearby. If you are a big spender – or merely a gawker – visit Elliott Aviation on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5:00 p.m. on Saturday. There we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft that will get your pulse racing. Come by bus; leave by private jet.
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本报告随附的委托材料里有一份附件,说明了如何领取入场及参加各项活动所需的凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订,我们再次请来美国运通(800-799-6634)为你提供专门协助。经手这些事务的卡罗尔·佩德森(Carol Pedersen),年年都为我们做得漂亮,我要谢谢她。酒店房间可能一房难求,但只要和卡罗尔配合,你总能订到。航空公司常在伯克希尔周末大幅抬价——有时涨得离谱。你若从远方赶来,不妨把飞往堪萨斯城和奥马哈的票价比一比:两地车程约 2.5 小时,这么一算,你没准能省下一笔可观的钱,尤其是原本就打算在奥马哈租车的话。
在内布拉斯加家具城——它坐落在 72 号街、道奇街与太平洋街之间那片 77 英亩的地块上——我们将再次推出“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。去年,这家店在股东大会促销期间做了 3,330 万美元的生意,就我所知,这个数字超过了任何地方、任何一家零售店的单周总额。要拿到伯克希尔折扣,你须在 4 月 26 日(星期二)至 5 月 2 日(星期一)之间购物,并出示会议凭证。这段时间的特价,甚至适用于几家素来严禁打折的知名厂商——本着股东周末的精神,它们破例给了你们优惠,我们感谢它们的配合。家具城周一至周六上午 10 点营业到晚上 9 点,周日则从上午 10 点到下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5:30 到晚上 8 点,家具城还办一场野餐会,诚邀各位参加。
在波仙珠宝(Borsheims),我们将再次举办两场只对股东开放的活动。第一场是 4 月 29 日(星期五)下午 6 点至晚上 9 点的鸡尾酒会;第二场是压轴的盛大晚会,定在 5 月 1 日(星期日)上午 9 点至下午 4 点。星期六,我们营业到下午 6 点。星期日下午 1 点前后,我会带着笑容和一套擦鞋工具现身波仙珠宝,卖起珠宝来,一如 63 年前我在 J.C. Penney 卖男式衬衫那样。我跟波仙珠宝的 CEO 苏珊·雅克说,我至今仍是个推销好手,可她眼里分明写着怀疑。所以,各位尽管放开手,从我这儿挑点东西送给你的妻子或心上人(多半是同一个人)吧,给我长长脸。整个周末,波仙珠宝都会人山人海。为方便你选购,股东优惠价将从 4 月 25 日(星期一)一直延续到 5 月 7 日(星期六);其间,请出示会议凭证,或能证明你是伯克希尔股东的券商对账单,以表明身份。星期日,在波仙珠宝外的商场里,蒙着眼睛的帕特里克·沃尔夫——两届美国国际象棋冠军——将六人一组地迎战所有睁大眼睛的挑战者。不远处,来自达拉斯的奇才魔术师诺曼·贝克会把围观者看得目瞪口呆。此外,我们还请来鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格这两位世界顶尖的桥牌高手,于星期日下午与股东们对局。
Gorat's 和 Piccolo's 将在 5 月 1 日(星期日)再次专为伯克希尔股东开放。两家餐厅都营业到晚上 10 点,Gorat's 下午 1 点开门,Piccolo's 下午 4 点开门。这两家是我的最爱——身为一个还在长身体的小伙子——星期日晚上我要在两家各吃一顿。记住:预订 Gorat's,请在 4 月 1 日(但别提前)拨打 402-551-3733;预订 Piccolo's,请拨打 402-342-9038。
我们再次请同样三位财经记者主持问答环节,由他们把股东通过电子邮件提交的问题抛给查理和我。这三位记者及其邮箱是:《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯,[email protected];CNBC 的贝基·奎克,[email protected];以及《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金,[email protected]。从收到的问题里,每位记者会挑出他或她认为最有意思、最重要的十来个。记者们告诉我,如果你的问题简洁、别拖到最后一刻才发、与伯克希尔相关,且每封邮件里不超过两个问题,那么被选中的机会最大。(邮件里请注明,万一你的问题入选,你是否希望被提及姓名。)将被问到什么,查理和我事先一无所知。我们知道记者们会挑些难啃的硬骨头——而我们喜欢的正是这个。
An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. Carol Pedersen, who handles these matters, does a terrific job for us each year, and I thank her for it. Hotel rooms can be hard to find, but work with Carol and you will get one. Airlines have often jacked up prices – sometimes dramatically so – for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City versus Omaha. The drive is about 2 1⁄ 2 hours and it may be that you can save significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year the store did $33.3 million of business during its annual meeting sale, a volume that – as far as I know – exceeds the one-week total of any retail store anyplace. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, April 26th and Monday, May 2nd inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited. At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, April 29th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 1st , from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. On Sunday, around 1 p.m., I will be at Borsheims with a smile and a shoeshine, selling jewelry just as I sold men’s shirts at J.C. Penney’s 63 years ago. I’ve told Susan Jacques, Borsheims’ CEO, that I’m still a hotshot salesman. But I see doubt in her eyes. So cut loose and buy something from me for your wife or sweetheart (presumably the same person). Make me look good. We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 25th through Saturday, May 7th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire shareholder. On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 1st. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites and – still being a growing boy – I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and at Piccolo’s call 402-342-9038. We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be emailed at [email protected]; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at [email protected], and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at [email protected]. From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the dozen or so he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any email you send them. (In your email, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.) Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists will pick some tough ones, and that’s the way we like it. 25
周六早上 8:15,我们会在 13 个话筒处各进行一次抽签,让那些想要亲自提问的股东有机会提问。在大会上,我会把记者的提问和中签股东的提问交替进行。我们希望能回答至少 60 个问题。在我们的角度看,越多越好。我们的目标,无论是通过这些年度致股东信还是股东大会的讨论来追求,都是让你更好地理解你拥有的这门生意。
We will again have a drawing at 8:15 a.m. on Saturday at each of 13 microphones for those shareholders wishing to ask questions themselves. At the meeting, I will alternate the questions asked by the journalists with those from the winning shareholders. We hope to answer at least 60 questions. From our standpoint, the more the better. Our goal, which we pursue both through these annual letters and by our meeting discussions, is to give you a better understanding of the business that you own.
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出于充分的理由,我时常褒扬旗下在业务一线工作的经理人的成就。然而,同样重要的,是和我一起在公司总部共事的那 20 位同仁(全都在一层楼里办公,我们也有意一直保持这样)。这个团队高效地应对着美国证券交易委员会和其他监管机构的大量要求,提交了一份长达 14,097 页的联邦所得税申报表,外加州税和海外纳税申报表,回应了数不清的股东和媒体问询,完成了年报的发布,筹备了全国最大规模的股东大会,协调了董事会各项活动——各种事项不胜枚举。他们处理所有这些商业事务都心情愉快且效率高得令人难以置信,让我的日子过得既轻松又愉快。他们的付出超出了与伯克希尔严格相关的业务范畴:他们要对接 48 所大学(从 200 个申请者中选出),这些学校本学年会派学生来奥马哈和我相处一天,还要处理我收到的五花八门的请求,安排我的出行,甚至替我买午餐的汉堡。没有哪位 CEO 的待遇比我更好。这支总部的团队,值得我最深切的感谢,也配得上你们的感谢。请在 4 月 30 日来到我们这场“资本家的伍德斯托克”盛会,亲口对他们这样说。
For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. Equally important, however, are the 20 men and women who work with me at our corporate office (all on one floor, which is the way we intend to keep it!). This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements, files a 14,097page Federal income tax return along with state and foreign returns, responds to countless shareholder and media inquiries, gets out the annual report, prepares for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinates the Board’s activities – and the list goes on and on. They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and joyful. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: They deal with 48 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who will send students to Omaha this school year for a day with me and also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers for lunch. No CEO has it better. This home office crew has my deepest thanks and deserves yours as well. Come to our Woodstock for Capitalism on April 30th and tell them so.
2011 年 2 月 26 日
February 26, 2011
沃伦·E·巴菲特
董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board
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备忘录
Memo
致:
To:
伯克希尔·哈撒韦各位管理者(“全明星队”)
Berkshire Hathaway Managers (“The All-Stars”)
抄送:
cc:
伯克希尔各位董事
Berkshire Directors
发件人:沃伦·E·巴菲特
From: Warren E. Buffett
日期:
Date:
2010 年 7 月 26 日
July 26, 2010
这是我两年一发的信,旨在再次强调伯克希尔的重中之重,并在继任规划上获得你们的帮助(是你们的规划,不是我的!)。这重中之重就是,我们所有人继续警觉地守护伯克希尔的声誉。我们无法做到完美无缺,但我们可以力求完美。正如我 25 年多来在这些备忘录里一直说的:“我们承受得起金钱的损失——哪怕是巨额损失。但我们承受不起声誉的损失——哪怕是一丝一毫。”我们必须继续衡量每一个行为,不仅要看它是否合法,还要问自己,如果它被一位不友善但很聪明的记者写在一家全国性报纸的头版上,我们是否会乐见其成。有时,你的同事会说“别人都这么干”。如果作为商业行为的主要理由,这个借口几乎总是很糟糕。如果用来评估一个道德决策,它更是完全不可接受。每当有人用这句话当理由,他们实际上是在承认自己想不出一个好理由。如果有人给你这个解释,让他们试着拿它去对记者或法官说,看能走多远。如果你们看到任何事情,其正当性或合法性让你犹豫,务必给我打个电话。然而,如果某一行动方向会引起这样的犹豫,那它很可能离红线太近,理应放弃。球场正中央有大把的钱可赚。如果对某个动作是否踩线存在疑问,就当它已经出界,然后忘掉它。作为由此而来的推论:如有任何重大坏消息,请立即告知我。坏消息我处理得来,但我不喜欢在它溃烂了一阵之后才来处理。不愿立刻面对坏消息,正是让所罗门公司的一个问题——原本轻而易举就能解决——演变成差点让一家拥有 8,000 名员工的公司倒闭的罪魁祸首。
This is my biennial letter to reemphasize Berkshire’s top priority and to get your help on succession planning (yours, not mine!). The priority is that all of us continue to zealously guard Berkshire’s reputation. We can’t be perfect but we can try to be. As I’ve said in these memos for more than 25 years: “We can afford to lose money – even a lot of money. But we can’t afford to lose reputation – even a shred of reputation.” We must continue to measure every act against not only what is legal but also what we would be happy to have written about on the front page of a national newspaper in an article written by an unfriendly but intelligent reporter. Sometimes your associates will say “Everybody else is doing it.” This rationale is almost always a bad one if it is the main justification for a business action. It is totally unacceptable when evaluating a moral decision. Whenever somebody offers that phrase as a rationale, in effect they are saying that they can’t come up with a good reason. If anyone gives this explanation, tell them to try using it with a reporter or a judge and see how far it gets them. If you see anything whose propriety or legality causes you to hesitate, be sure to give me a call. However, it’s very likely that if a given course of action evokes such hesitation, it’s too close to the line and should be abandoned. There’s plenty of money to be made in the center of the court. If it’s questionable whether some action is close to the line, just assume it is outside and forget it. As a corollary, let me know promptly if there’s any significant bad news. I can handle bad news but I don’t like to deal with it after it has festered for awhile. A reluctance to face up immediately to bad news is what turned a problem at Salomon from one that could have easily been disposed of into one that almost caused the demise of a firm with 8,000 employees.
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此刻,在伯克希尔,一定有人正在做某件事,如果被你和我知道,我们是会不高兴的。这无可避免:我们现在雇用了超过 25 万名员工,要让这么多人在一天之中不发生任何不当行为的可能性是零。但是,我们可以通过一闻到任何一点不当行为的气味就马上采取行动,在最大程度上减少这类行为的发生。你对此类问题的态度——通过言行两者表达出来——将成为你所在业务文化发展的最重要因素。决定一个组织行为方式的,是文化,胜过条条框框的规章手册。除此之外,关于经营状况,想跟我多聊些还是少聊些,都随你。你们每个人都用自己独特的风格,把各自业务的经营得相当出色,用不着我帮忙。唯一需要跟我报备的事项是退休后福利的任何变动,以及任何异常大额的资本支出或收购。
Somebody is doing something today at Berkshire that you and I would be unhappy about if we knew of it. That’s inevitable: We now employ more than 250,000 people and the chances of that number getting through the day without any bad behavior occurring is nil. But we can have a huge effect in minimizing such activities by jumping on anything immediately when there is the slightest odor of impropriety. Your attitude on such matters, expressed by behavior as well as words, will be the most important factor in how the culture of your business develops. Culture, more than rule books, determines how an organization behaves. In other respects, talk to me about what is going on as little or as much as you wish. Each of you does a first-class job of running your operation with your own individual style and you don’t need me to help. The only items you need to clear with me are any changes in post-retirement benefits and any unusually large capital expenditures or acquisitions.
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接班这件事,我需要各位帮个忙。我不是想请你们谁退休,还盼着你们都活到 100 岁(查理的话,110 岁)。但万一没活到,请给我写封信(愿意的话可以寄到我家),说清楚:如果哪天你一夜之间突然无法履职,你认为谁该从第二天起接手。这些信只有我能看;除非我不再担任 CEO,那时我的继任者才需要用上这些信息。请把你主要人选的长处和短处概括一下,以及你想一并列出的替补人选。你们当中大多数人过去都参与过这个环节,也有人口头提过想法。但对我来说,定期更新一次很重要;何况如今我们又添了这么多业务,我需要把你们的想法落成书面文字,而不是全装在我脑子里。当然,有几门生意是由你们当中两个或更多人共同打理的——比如布卢姆金家族、默施曼家族、应用承保(Applied Underwriters)的那对搭档,等等——这类情况,直接略过这条就好。你的便条可以简短、随意、手写,怎么都行,只要标上“沃伦亲启”即可。这件事,一并谢谢大家帮忙;也谢谢你们经营业务的那份用心。有你们在,我的工作就轻松多了。
I need your help in respect to the question of succession. I’m not looking for any of you to retire and I hope you all live to 100. (In Charlie’s case, 110.) But just in case you don’t, please send me a letter (at home if you wish) giving your recommendation as who should take over tomorrow if you should become incapacitated overnight. These letters will be seen by no one but me unless I’m no longer CEO, in which case my successor will need the information. Please summarize the strengths and weaknesses of your primary candidate as well as any possible alternates you may wish to include. Most of you have participated in this exercise in the past and others have offered your ideas verbally. However, it’s important to me to get a periodic update, and now that we have added so many businesses, I need to have your thoughts in writing rather than trying to carry them around in my memory. Of course, there are a few operations that are run by two or more of you – such as the Blumkins, the Merschmans, the pair at Applied Underwriters, etc. – and in these cases, just forget about this item. Your note can be short, informal, handwritten, etc. Just mark it “Personal for Warren.” Thanks for your help on all of this. And thanks for the way you run your businesses. You make my job easy.
WEB/db
WEB/db
又及,还有一个不情之请:凡是请我去演讲、捐款,或者要我替人向盖茨基金会说情之类的提议,请一概替我回绝。有时候,这类让你当中间人的请求还会附带一句“问一下又不会怎样”。你干脆回一声“不行”,对咱俩都省事。再帮我一个忙:也别建议他们改写信或打电话来找我。76 门生意,隔三差五就冒出一句“我觉得他会对这个感兴趣”,你拿这个频率乘一下就明白,为什么当场、干脆地回绝才是上策。
P.S. Another minor request: Please turn down all proposals for me to speak, make contributions, intercede with the Gates Foundation, etc. Sometimes these requests for you to act as intermediary will be accompanied by “It can’t hurt to ask.” It will be easier for both of us if you just say “no.” As an added favor, don’t suggest that they instead write or call me. Multiply 76 businesses by the periodic “I think he’ll be interested in this one” and you can understand why it is better to say no firmly and immediately.
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