2013 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 12920 词
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伯克希尔公司业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数

每股账面价值年度变化 标普 500 指数含股息年度变化

(1) (2)

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Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500 Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Book Value of with Dividends Berkshire Included (1) (2)

年份

Year

相对业绩(1)-(2)

Relative Results (1)-(2)

伯克希尔每股账面价值与标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化相对结果
年度(1) (2)(1)-(2)
196523.8 10.013.8
196620.3 (11.7)32.0
196711.0 30.9(19.9)
196819.0 11.08.0
196916.2 (8.4)24.6
197012.0 3.98.1
197116.4 14.61.8
197221.7 18.92.8
19734.7 (14.8)19.5
19745.5 (26.4)31.9
197521.9 37.2(15.3)
197659.3 23.635.7
197731.9 (7.4)39.3
197824.0 6.417.6
197935.7 18.217.5
198019.3 32.3(13.0)
198131.4 (5.0)36.4
198240.0 21.418.6
198332.3 22.49.9
198413.6 6.17.5
198548.2 31.616.6
198626.1 18.67.5
198719.5 5.114.4
198820.1 16.63.5
198944.4 31.712.7
19907.4 (3.1)10.5
199139.6 30.59.1
199220.3 7.612.7
199314.3 10.14.2
199413.9 1.312.6
199543.1 37.65.5
199631.8 23.08.8
199734.1 33.40.7
199848.3 28.619.7
19990.5 21.0(20.5)
20006.5 (9.1)15.6
2001(6.2) (11.9)5.7
200210.0 (22.1)32.1
200321.0 28.7(7.7)
200410.5 10.9(0.4)
20056.4 4.91.5
200618.4 15.82.6
200711.0 5.55.5
2008(9.6) (37.0)27.4
200919.8 26.5(6.7)
201013.0 15.1(2.1)
20114.6 2.12.5
201214.4 16.0(1.6)
201318.2 32.4(14.2)
复合年化收益率 – 1965-201319.7% 9.8%9.9
整体收益——1964-2013693,518% 9,841%
Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Book Value of with Dividends Berkshire IncludedRelative Results
Year(1) (2)(1)-(2)
196523.8 10.013.8
196620.3 (11.7)32.0
196711.0 30.9(19.9)
196819.0 11.08.0
196916.2 (8.4)24.6
197012.0 3.98.1
197116.4 14.61.8
197221.7 18.92.8
19734.7 (14.8)19.5
19745.5 (26.4)31.9
197521.9 37.2(15.3)
197659.3 23.635.7
197731.9 (7.4)39.3
197824.0 6.417.6
197935.7 18.217.5
198019.3 32.3(13.0)
198131.4 (5.0)36.4
198240.0 21.418.6
198332.3 22.49.9
198413.6 6.17.5
198548.2 31.616.6
198626.1 18.67.5
198719.5 5.114.4
198820.1 16.63.5
198944.4 31.712.7
19907.4 (3.1)10.5
199139.6 30.59.1
199220.3 7.612.7
199314.3 10.14.2
199413.9 1.312.6
199543.1 37.65.5
199631.8 23.08.8
199734.1 33.40.7
199848.3 28.619.7
19990.5 21.0(20.5)
20006.5 (9.1)15.6
2001(6.2) (11.9)5.7
200210.0 (22.1)32.1
200321.0 28.7(7.7)
200410.5 10.9(0.4)
20056.4 4.91.5
200618.4 15.82.6
200711.0 5.55.5
2008(9.6) (37.0)27.4
200919.8 26.5(6.7)
201013.0 15.1(2.1)
20114.6 2.12.5
201214.4 16.0(1.6)
201318.2 32.4(14.2)
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-201319.7% 9.8%9.9
Overall Gain – 1964-2013693,518% 9,841%
19.7% 693,518%
9.8% 9,841%
9.9
19.7% 693,518%
9.8% 9,841%
9.9

备注:数据按日历年度计算,但以下年份例外:1965 年和 1966 年截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。1979 年起,会计规则要求保险公司按市价而非此前的成本与市价孰低法来计量所持权益证券。本表中,伯克希尔截至 1978 年的业绩已按新规重述,其余各项则沿用最初报告的数字。标普 500 指数的数字为税前,伯克希尔的数字为税后。一家像伯克希尔这样的公司,若只是持有标普 500 指数并计提相应税款,那么在指数录得正回报的年份会跑输,在指数录得负回报的年份则会跑赢。多年累计下来,税收成本会让落后幅度相当可观。

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are aftertax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股份有限公司的股东们:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2013 年,伯克希尔的净资产增加了 342 亿美元。这一数字已经扣除了收购 Marmon 和 Iscar 少数股权所产生的 18 亿美元费用——这笔费用在经济上毫无意义,我稍后会解释。扣除之后,我们 A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值都增长了 18.2%。过去 49 年里(也就是自现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元涨到了 134,973 美元,年复合增长率 19.7%。* 在对面一页,我们照例列出那项沿用多年的业绩标尺:伯克希尔每股账面价值的年度变化,与标普 500 指数的市场表现相比。当然,真正重要的是每股内在价值,可这个数字带有主观性,账面价值只是一个粗略的追踪指标。(关于内在价值的详细讨论,见第 103 至 108 页的《所有者相关业务原则》。这些原则写进我们的报告已有 30 年,我们恳请新股东和潜在股东读一读。)我一直告诉你们,伯克希尔的内在价值远高于账面价值,而且近年来这个差距还大幅拉开了。正因如此,我们 2012 年决定授权以账面价值的 120% 回购股份是说得通的:在这个价位买入对留下来的股东有利,因为每股内在价值比这个百分比的账面价值高出一大截。不过 2013 年我们一股也没回购,因为股价没跌到 120% 那条线。真跌下来,我们会大手笔买入。查理·芒格是伯克希尔的副董事长,也是我的搭档,我们俩都相信,在市场下跌或温和上涨的年份,伯克希尔的账面价值和内在价值都会跑赢标普;但在市场强劲的年份,我们预计会落后——2013 年就是如此。49 年里我们有 10 年跑输,除一次外,落后都发生在标普涨幅超过 15% 的年份。而在 2007 年底到 2013 年底这个完整的股市周期里,我们跑赢了标普。今后若干个完整周期,我们预计还会再赢。做不到,我们就不配拿这份报酬——毕竟你随时可以持有一只指数基金,稳稳拿到标普的回报。

Berkshire’s gain in net worth during 2013 was $34.2 billion. That gain was after our deducting $1.8 billion of charges – meaningless economically, as I will explain later – that arose from our purchase of the minority interests in Marmon and Iscar. After those charges, the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 18.2%. Over the last 49 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $134,973, a rate of 19.7% compounded annually.* On the facing page, we show our long-standing performance measurement: The yearly change in Berkshire’s per-share book value versus the market performance of the S&P 500. What counts, of course, is pershare intrinsic value. But that’s a subjective figure, and book value is useful as a rough tracking indicator. (An extended discussion of intrinsic value is included in our Owner-Related Business Principles on pages 103 - 108. Those principles have been included in our reports for 30 years, and we urge new and prospective shareholders to read them.) As I’ve long told you, Berkshire’s intrinsic value far exceeds its book value. Moreover, the difference has widened considerably in recent years. That’s why our 2012 decision to authorize the repurchase of shares at 120% of book value made sense. Purchases at that level benefit continuing shareholders because per-share intrinsic value exceeds that percentage of book value by a meaningful amount. We did not purchase shares during 2013, however, because the stock price did not descend to the 120% level. If it does, we will be aggressive. Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s vice chairman and my partner, and I believe both Berkshire’s book value and intrinsic value will outperform the S&P in years when the market is down or moderately up. We expect to fall short, though, in years when the market is strong – as we did in 2013. We have underperformed in ten of our 49 years, with all but one of our shortfalls occurring when the S&P gain exceeded 15%. Over the stock market cycle between yearends 2007 and 2013, we overperformed the S&P. Through full cycles in future years, we expect to do that again. If we fail to do so, we will not have earned our pay. After all, you could always own an index fund and be assured of S&P results.

伯克希尔这一年的情况:

The Year at Berkshire

经营层面,去年我们几乎每一项业务都进展顺利,有些甚至相当亮眼。

On the operating front, just about everything turned out well for us last year – in certain cases very well.

让我细数种种方式:

Let me count the ways:

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我们完成了两笔大规模收购,花费近 180 亿美元买下 NV Energy 的全部股权,以及 H. J. Heinz 的重要权益。两家公司都与我们十分契合,一个世纪后仍会兴旺。借收购亨氏之机,我们还摸索出一套合伙模式,往后伯克希尔做大额收购可能会用得上。这一次,我们与 3G Capital 的投资者携手,这家公司由我的朋友豪尔赫·保罗·莱曼掌舵。他手下几位能干的伙伴——亨氏新任首席执行官贝尔纳多·希斯和董事长亚历克斯·贝林——负责运营。

We completed two large acquisitions, spending almost $18 billion to purchase all of NV Energy and a major interest in H. J. Heinz. Both companies fit us well and will be prospering a century from now. With the Heinz purchase, moreover, we created a partnership template that may be used by Berkshire in future acquisitions of size. Here, we teamed up with investors at 3G Capital, a firm led by my friend, Jorge Paulo Lemann. His talented associates – Bernardo Hees, Heinz’s new CEO, and Alex Behring, its Chairman – are responsible for operations.

  • 本报告中使用的所有每股数据均对应伯克希尔的 A 类股。B 类股的数据为 A 类股所示数据的 1/1500。3
  • All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A. 3

伯克希尔担任出资方。在这个角色里,我们买入 80 亿美元的亨氏优先股,票面利率 9%,此外还附有一些条款,能把优先股的年回报率抬高到 12% 上下。亨氏的普通股,伯克希尔和 3G 各出 42.5 亿美元买下一半。亨氏收购案与“私募股权”交易有几分相似,却有一个关键分野:伯克希尔从没打算卖出这家公司的哪怕一股。我们想买得更多,而这确有可能:3G 的某些投资者日后或许会出售部分乃至全部持股,届时我们就可能增持。伯克希尔和 3G 也可能在某个时点认定,把我们的一部分优先股换成普通股(按当时合理的股权估值)对双方都有利。我们这个合伙体于 6 月接管亨氏,迄今经营成绩令人鼓舞。不过今年计入伯克希尔业绩的亨氏盈利很少:收购及随后业务重组产生的一次性费用合计 13 亿美元。2014 年的盈利将相当可观。有了亨氏,伯克希尔如今旗下有 8.5 家公司,若各自独立,都够得上《财富》500 强的门槛,还差 491.5 家。NV Energy 由我们的公用事业子公司中美能源(MidAmerican Energy)以 56 亿美元收购,为内华达州约 88% 的人口供电。这笔收购与我们现有的电力业务严丝合缝,也为可再生能源领域的大额投资打开了诸多可能。NV Energy 不会是中美能源最后一笔大收购。

Berkshire is the financing partner. In that role, we purchased $8 billion of Heinz preferred stock that carries a 9% coupon but also possesses other features that should increase the preferred’s annual return to 12% or so. Berkshire and 3G each purchased half of the Heinz common stock for $4.25 billion. Though the Heinz acquisition has some similarities to a “private equity” transaction, there is a crucial difference: Berkshire never intends to sell a share of the company. What we would like, rather, is to buy more, and that could happen: Certain 3G investors may sell some or all of their shares in the future, and we might increase our ownership at such times. Berkshire and 3G could also decide at some point that it would be mutually beneficial if we were to exchange some of our preferred for common shares (at an equity valuation appropriate to the time). Our partnership took control of Heinz in June, and operating results so far are encouraging. Only minor earnings from Heinz, however, are reflected in those we report for Berkshire this year: One-time charges incurred in the purchase and subsequent restructuring of operations totaled $1.3 billion. Earnings in 2014 will be substantial. With Heinz, Berkshire now owns 8 1⁄ 2 companies that, were they stand-alone businesses, would be in the Fortune 500. Only 491 1⁄ 2 to go. NV Energy, purchased for $5.6 billion by MidAmerican Energy, our utility subsidiary, supplies electricity to about 88% of Nevada’s population. This acquisition fits nicely into our existing electric-utility operation and offers many possibilities for large investments in renewable energy. NV Energy will not be MidAmerican’s last major acquisition. Š

中美能源是我们“五大金刚”之一——这五家大型非保险企业 2013 年合计创下 108 亿美元税前利润的纪录,比 2012 年多出 7.58 亿美元。这个神圣阵营的另外几员是 BNSF、伊斯卡、路博润和玛蒙集团。九年前,五家里只有中美能源已归伯克希尔所有,当时税前利润 3.93 亿美元。随后我们用全现金买下其中三家;收购第五家 BNSF 时,约 70% 用现金支付,其余部分发股完成,使流通股增加了 6.1%。换句话说,这五家公司九年间为伯克希尔带来 104 亿美元的年度盈利增长,代价只是微乎其微的股份稀释。这正合我们的初衷:不光要增长,更要提升每股业绩。若 2014 年美国经济继续向好,五大金刚的盈利应会随之上台阶——税前利润或许能再添 10 亿美元左右。

MidAmerican is one of our “Powerhouse Five” – a collection of large non-insurance businesses that, in aggregate, had a record $10.8 billion of pre-tax earnings in 2013, up $758 million from 2012. The other companies in this sainted group are BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol and Marmon. Of the five, only MidAmerican, then earning $393 million pre-tax, was owned by Berkshire nine years ago. Subsequently, we purchased another three of the five on an all-cash basis. In acquiring the fifth, BNSF, we paid about 70% of the cost in cash, and, for the remainder, issued shares that increased the number outstanding by 6.1%. In other words, the $10.4 billion gain in annual earnings delivered Berkshire by the five companies over the nine-year span has been accompanied by only minor dilution. That satisfies our goal of not simply growing, but rather increasing per-share results. If the U.S. economy continues to improve in 2014, we can expect earnings of our Powerhouse Five to improve also – perhaps by $1 billion or so pre-tax.

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去年,我们旗下几十家规模较小的非保险企业实现税前利润 47 亿美元,高于 2012 年的 39 亿美元。这一块我们同样看好 2014 年会再上层楼。

Our many dozens of smaller non-insurance businesses earned $4.7 billion pre-tax last year, up from $3.9 billion in 2012. Here, too, we expect further gains in 2014.

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伯克希尔庞大的保险业务在 2013 年再度实现承保盈利——这已是连续第 11 个年头——浮存金也随之增长。在这 11 年里,我们的浮存金——这笔钱不归我们所有,却可供我们投资为伯克希尔谋利——已从 410 亿美元增至 770 亿美元。同期,我们的承保利润累计达 220 亿美元(税前),其中 2013 年贡献了 30 亿美元。而这一切的源头,都始于 1967 年我们以 860 万美元收购国民赔偿公司。如今我们持有众多出类拔萃的保险业务,其中最为人熟知的是 GEICO。这家车险公司于 1995 年底被伯克希尔全资收购(此前多年我们一直持有部分股权)。1996 年,GEICO 在美国车险公司中排名第七,如今它刚刚超过全州保险(Allstate),升至第二位。实现这一惊人增长的道理很简单:低价与可靠的服务。你不妨为自己行个方便,拨打 1-800-847-7536 或访问 Geico.com 看一看,你是否也能降低自己的保险费用。省下的钱,可以买点伯克希尔的其他产品。

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Berkshire’s extensive insurance operation again operated at an underwriting profit in 2013 – that makes 11 years in a row – and increased its float. During that 11-year stretch, our float – money that doesn’t belong to us but that we can invest for Berkshire’s benefit – has grown from $41 billion to $77 billion. Concurrently, our underwriting profit has aggregated $22 billion pre-tax, including $3 billion realized in 2013. And all of this all began with our 1967 purchase of National Indemnity for $8.6 million. We now own a wide variety of exceptional insurance operations. Best known is GEICO, the car insurer Berkshire acquired in full at yearend 1995 (having for many years prior owned a partial interest). GEICO in 1996 ranked number seven among U.S. auto insurers. Now, GEICO is number two, having recently passed Allstate. The reasons for this amazing growth are simple: low prices and reliable service. You can do yourself a favor by calling 1-800-847-7536 or checking Geico.com to see if you, too, can cut your insurance costs. Buy some of Berkshire’s other products with the savings.

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我和查理忙着物色大象的时候,旗下众多子公司则一直在做补强收购。去年我们签下 25 笔这类交易,合计 31 亿美元,单笔规模从 190 万美元到 11 亿美元不等。我和查理很乐见这些交易:它们把资本投向与现有业务契合的领域,交由我们那批行家里手打理,既不给我们添活儿,又能替你们多挣钱。今后几年,这类补强收购还会源源不断,加总起来分量不轻。

While Charlie and I search for elephants, our many subsidiaries are regularly making bolt-on acquisitions. Last year, we contracted for 25 of these, scheduled to cost $3.1 billion in aggregate. These transactions ranged from $1.9 million to $1.1 billion in size. Charlie and I encourage these deals. They deploy capital in activities that fit with our existing businesses and that will be managed by our corps of expert managers. The result is no more work for us and more earnings for you. Many more of these bolt-on deals will be made in future years. In aggregate, they will be meaningful.

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去年,我们投入 35 亿美元做了一类最稳妥的补强收购:增持两家早已控股的优秀企业。一例是玛蒙集团,增持后我们持股达到 100%,兑现了 2008 年签下的约定;另一例是伊斯卡,韦特海默家族行使了手中的看跌期权,把 2006 年我们取得控股权时他们留下的 20% 股份卖给了我们。这两笔增持给我们当前的盈利能力添了约 3 亿美元税前利润,还带来 8 亿美元现金。与此同时,我去年信里说过的那条荒唐会计规则又来了:它要求我们把这些股份按比实际付款低 18 亿美元的金额入账,硬生生压低了伯克希尔的账面价值。(这笔冲减记进了“资本公积”科目——这账你自己琢磨去吧。)你得明白,这套古怪的会计处理,反倒让伯克希尔内在价值超出账面价值的部分,当即也多了这 18 亿美元。

Last year we invested $3.5 billion in the surest sort of bolt-on: the purchase of additional shares in two wonderful businesses that we already controlled. In one case – Marmon – our purchases brought us to the 100% ownership we had signed up for in 2008. In the other instance – Iscar – the Wertheimer family elected to exercise a put option it held, selling us the 20% of the business it retained when we bought control in 2006. These purchases added about $300 million pre-tax to our current earning power and also delivered us $800 million of cash. Meanwhile, the same nonsensical accounting rule that I described in last year’s letter required that we enter these purchases on our books at $1.8 billion less than we paid, a process that reduced Berkshire’s book value. (The charge was made to “capital in excess of par value”; figure that one out.) This weird accounting, you should understand, instantly increased Berkshire’s excess of intrinsic value over book value by the same $1.8 billion.

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2013 年,我们的子公司在厂房设备上投入了创纪录的 110 亿美元,约为折旧额的两倍,其中近 89% 花在美国本土。我们在海外也有投资,但机会的富矿仍在美国。

Our subsidiaries spent a record $11 billion on plant and equipment during 2013, roughly twice our depreciation charge. About 89% of that money was spent in the United States. Though we invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunity resides in America.

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在这一年,大多数股票基金经理都跑不赢标普 500,托德·库姆斯和泰德·韦施勒却轻松办到了。两人如今各自掌管一个逾 70 亿美元的组合,这是他们挣来的。我得再坦白一次:他们的投资业绩超过了我。(查理说我该补一句“超出一大截”。)这种丢脸的对比要是没完没了,我就只好从此闭口不提他们了。除了组合投资,托德和泰德还在其他好几件事上为你们创造了可观的价值。他们的贡献才刚开头:两人血管里都流着伯克希尔的血。

In a year in which most equity managers found it impossible to outperform the S&P 500, both Todd Combs and Ted Weschler handily did so. Each now runs a portfolio exceeding $7 billion. They’ve earned it. I must again confess that their investments outperformed mine. (Charlie says I should add “by a lot.”) If such humiliating comparisons continue, I’ll have no choice but to cease talking about them. Todd and Ted have also created significant value for you in several matters unrelated to their portfolio activities. Their contributions are just beginning: Both men have Berkshire blood in their veins.

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算上亨氏,伯克希尔年末员工总数达到创纪录的 330,745 人,比去年多 42,283 人。我得承认,这里头有一个人加在了我们奥马哈总部。(别慌:总部那帮人还是能舒舒服服地挤在同一层楼里。)

Berkshire’s yearend employment – counting Heinz – totaled a record 330,745, up 42,283 from last year. The increase, I must admit, included one person at our Omaha home office. (Don’t panic: The headquarters gang still fits comfortably on one floor.)

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去年,伯克希尔在“四大”投资——美国运通、可口可乐、IBM 和富国银行——上的持股比例都有提升。我们增持了富国银行(持股从 2012 年底的 8.7% 升至 9.2%)和 IBM(从 6.0% 升至 6.3%);与此同时,可口可乐和美国运通的股票回购也抬高了我们的持股占比:可口可乐从 8.9% 升到 9.1%,美国运通从 13.7% 升到 14.2%。若你觉得零点几个百分点无关紧要,不妨算笔账:这四家公司合起来,我们的持股每提高十分之一个百分点,伯克希尔分得的年度利润就多 5000 万美元。

Berkshire increased its ownership interest last year in each of its “Big Four” investments – American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo. We purchased additional shares of Wells Fargo (increasing our ownership to 9.2% versus 8.7% at yearend 2012) and IBM (6.3% versus 6.0%). Meanwhile, stock repurchases at Coca-Cola and American Express raised our percentage ownership. Our equity in CocaCola grew from 8.9% to 9.1% and our interest in American Express from 13.7% to 14.2%. And, if you think tenths of a percent aren’t important, ponder this math: For the four companies in aggregate, each increase of one-tenth of a percent in our share of their equity raises Berkshire’s share of their annual earnings by $50 million.

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这四家公司生意上乘,掌舵者既有才干又心系股东。在伯克希尔,比起 100% 拥有一家平庸企业,我们更愿意持有一家卓越企业中不控股但可观的份额——与其攥着一整颗人造钻,不如握有“希望之钻”的一角。按年末持仓算,2013 年“四大”归属于我们的利润有 44 亿美元。可我们报给你们的利润里,只计入了收到的股息——去年约 14 亿美元。但请别误会:那 30 亿美元没有报出的利润,对我们的价值丝毫不亚于伯克希尔账上记下的那部分。这四家公司留存的盈利,常被用来回购自家股票——这会抬高我们对未来利润的分成——以及投向那些往往有利可图的机会。凡此种种,让我们有理由相信这四家被投企业的每股盈利会随时间大幅增长。果真如此,伯克希尔收到的股息会增加,更要紧的是,我们的未实现资本利得也会增加。(截至年末,这四家的未实现利得已合计 390 亿美元。)我们在资本配置上的灵活——愿意以被动方式向不控股的企业投入巨资——让我们比那些只肯收购自己能经营的公司的对手多了一份显著优势。伍迪·艾伦一句话点破了其中门道:“双性恋的好处是,周六晚上约到人的机会翻了一倍。”同理,运营型生意也好,被动型投资也罢,我们来者不拒,这就让我们的现金——那股永不停歇的活水——找到明智去处的机会,也翻了一倍。

The four companies possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. At Berkshire, we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful company to owning 100% of a so-so business; it’s better to have a partial interest in the Hope diamond than to own all of a rhinestone. Going by our yearend holdings, our portion of the “Big Four’s” 2013 earnings amounted to $4.4 billion. In the earnings we report to you, however, we include only the dividends we receive – about $1.4 billion last year. But make no mistake: The $3 billion of their earnings we don’t report is every bit as valuable to us as the portion Berkshire records. The earnings that these four companies retain are often used for repurchases of their own stock – a move that enhances our share of future earnings – as well as for funding business opportunities that usually turn out to be advantageous. All that leads us to expect that the per-share earnings of these four investees will grow substantially over time. If they do, dividends to Berkshire will increase and, even more important, our unrealized capital gains will, too. (For the four, unrealized gains already totaled $39 billion at yearend.) Our flexibility in capital allocation – our willingness to invest large sums passively in non-controlled businesses – gives us a significant advantage over companies that limit themselves to acquisitions they can operate. Woody Allen stated the general idea when he said: “The advantage of being bi-sexual is that it doubles your chances for a date on Saturday night.” Similarly, our appetite for either operating businesses or passive investments doubles our chances of finding sensible uses for our endless gusher of cash.

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2009 年底,大衰退阴云未散之际,我们同意收购 BNSF,这是伯克希尔史上最大的一笔收购。当时我把这笔交易称作“押上全部身家、赌美国经济的未来”。这样的下注对我们并不新鲜:自 1965 年巴菲特合伙公司取得伯克希尔控制权起,我们就一直在做类似的押注,而且理由充分。查理和我一贯认为,赌美国越来越繁荣,几乎是稳赢的买卖。的确,过去 237 年里,有谁靠做空美国占到过便宜?把今天的国情同 1776 年一比,你不得不揉揉眼睛惊叹。我们市场经济中蕴藏的活力,还会继续施展它的魔法。美国最好的日子还在前头。有这股顺风相助,查理和我打算从五个方面提升伯克希尔的每股内在价值:(1)不断增强旗下众多子公司的基本盈利能力;(2)通过补强收购进一步做大它们的利润;(3)分享被投企业成长的果实;(4)当伯克希尔股价明显低于内在价值时回购股票;(5)偶尔做一笔大收购。我们还会尽量少发、乃至不发新股,好为你们把回报做到最大。这些基石立在磐石之上。一个世纪之后,BNSF 和中美能源仍会在美国经济中挑大梁。保险对企业和个人也将始终不可或缺——论人力与财力,没有哪家公司能像伯克希尔这样为这门生意撑腰。此外,我们会永远保持顶级的财务实力,手握至少 200 亿美元现金等价物,绝不背负大额短期债务。掂量过这些以及其他种种长处,查理和我看好你们这家公司的前景,也为受托打理它而感到幸运。

Late in 2009, amidst the gloom of the Great Recession, we agreed to buy BNSF, the largest purchase in Berkshire’s history. At the time, I called the transaction an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.” That kind of commitment was nothing new for us: We’ve been making similar wagers ever since Buffett Partnership Ltd. acquired control of Berkshire in 1965. For good reason, too. Charlie and I have always considered a “bet” on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing. Indeed, who has ever benefited during the past 237 years by betting against America? If you compare our country’s present condition to that existing in 1776, you have to rub your eyes in wonder. And the dynamism embedded in our market economy will continue to work its magic. America’s best days lie ahead. With this tailwind working for us, Charlie and I hope to build Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by (1) constantly improving the basic earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) benefiting from the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares. Those building blocks rest on a rock-solid foundation. A century hence, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy will still be playing major roles in our economy. Insurance will concomitantly be essential for both businesses and individuals – and no company brings greater human and financial resources to that business than Berkshire. Moreover, we will always maintain supreme financial strength, operating with at least $20 billion of cash equivalents and never incurring material amounts of short-term obligations. As we view these and other strengths, Charlie and I like your company’s prospects. We feel fortunate to be entrusted with its management.

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内在商业价值。查理和我没少谈内在商业价值,却说不准伯克希尔股票这个数字究竟是多少(说到底,任何一只股票都一样)。不过在 2010 年的年报里,我们摆出了三个要素——其中一个是定性的——认定它们是合理估算伯克希尔内在价值的关键。那段讨论在第 109 至 110 页原样重印。这里更新一下两个定量指标:2013 年,我们的每股投资增长 13.6%,达到 129,253 美元;保险与投资以外的业务,每股税前利润增长 12.8%,达到 9,116 美元。自 1970 年以来,我们的每股投资以年均 19.3% 复合增长,盈利数字则以 20.6% 的速度攀升。43 年间伯克希尔股价的涨幅,与我们这两把价值标尺高度吻合,绝非偶然。两项都增长,查理和我自然乐见,但我们会把最大的心力放在做厚经营利润上。

Intrinsic Business Value As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number is for Berkshire shares (nor, in fact, for any other stock). In our 2010 annual report, however, we laid out the three elements – one of them qualitative – that we believe are the keys to a sensible estimate of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 109 - 110. Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2013 our per-share investments increased 13.6% to $129,253 and our pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 12.8% to $9,116 per share. Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 19.3% compounded annually, and our earnings figure has grown at a 20.6% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the 43-year period has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both sectors, but we will most strongly focus on building operating earnings.

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现在,我们来逐一审视四大业务板块。它们的资产负债表和利润表特征彼此迥异,因此我们把它们当作四门独立的生意来呈现——查理和我也正是这么看的(尽管把它们同置一个屋檐下,另有一些重要而持久的好处)。我们的目标是,把假如角色对调、你当汇报的经理、我们当不到场的股东时最想拿到的信息,如实交到你手上。(但可别真动这心思!)

Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them (though there are important and enduring advantages to having them all under one roof). Our goal is to provide you with the information we would wish to have if our positions were reversed, with you being the reporting manager and we the absentee shareholders. (But don’t get any ideas!) Insurance “Our investment in the insurance companies reflects a first major step in our efforts to achieve a more diversified base of earning power.”

保险。“我们对保险公司的投资,是我们为让盈利来源更加多元而迈出的重要第一步。”——1967 年年报

— 1967 Annual Report

先看保险。这是伯克希尔的核心业务,自 1967 年那份报告问世以来,一直是推动我们扩张的引擎。财产意外险(简称“P/C”)公司先收保费、后付赔款。极端情况下,比如某些工伤事故,赔付可拖上几十年。这种“先收后付”的模式,让 P/C 公司手里握着一大笔终将付给别人的钱——我们称之为“浮存金”。在此期间,保险公司可以拿这笔浮存金为自己投资。虽然保单和赔案来来去去,一家保险公司持有的浮存金规模相对保费而言通常相当稳定。于是,业务一扩大,浮存金也跟着水涨船高。至于涨得有多快,看下表便知:

Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has consistently propelled our expansion since that 1967 report was published. Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collectnow, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows: Year

年份 浮存金(百万美元)

Float (in $ millions)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013

$

$

39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 77,240
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 77,240

浮存金要想再进一步增长,将会殊为不易。从有利的一面看,GEICO 的浮存金几乎肯定会继续增长。但在国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity)的再保险部门,我们有若干正在自然终止(run-off)的合约,其浮存金正在逐渐减少。即使将来某个时点浮存金真的出现下滑,也会非常平缓——每年至多不超过 3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了,我们永远不会突然面临与自身现金资源相比数额庞大的赔付需求。(在这一点上,财产意外险与某些类型的人寿保险有着重要区别。)

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Further gains in float will be tough to achieve. On the plus side, GEICO’s float will almost certainly grow. In National Indemnity’s reinsurance division, however, we have a number of run-off contracts whose float drifts downward. If we do experience a decline in float at some future time, it will be very gradual – at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate demands for sums that are large compared to our cash resources. (In this respect, property-casualty insurance differs in an important way from certain forms of life insurance.)

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如果保费收入超过全部开支和最终赔款,我们就赚到了承保利润,它会叠加在浮存金带来的投资收益之上。一旦这种利润到手,我们等于是白用了这笔钱——更妙的是,还因为拿着它而收了钱。可惜,人人都想尝到这甜头,竞争因此白热化,多数年份激烈到让整个 P/C 行业整体承保亏损。这笔亏损,说白了就是行业为持有浮存金付出的代价。举个例子,State Farm 是美国迄今最大的保险公司,经营也算得法,可在截至 2012 年的 12 年里(这是我写信时能查到的最新财务数据),竟有 9 年录得承保亏损。竞争的格局几乎注定:保险业——尽管人人都享有浮存金收益——仍将延续它那份惨淡纪录,回报率比别的行业偏低。正如本报告开头所说,我们已连续 11 年实现承保盈利,期间税前利润累计 220 亿美元。展望未来,我相信多数年份我们仍会承保盈利。这是所有保险经理人日日紧盯的头等事,他们心里清楚:浮存金固然值钱,糟糕的承保结果却能把它淹没。那么,浮存金如何影响内在价值?计算伯克希尔账面价值时,浮存金被整笔当作负债扣除,仿佛我们明天就得全额付清、且无从补充。可把浮存金一概视为负债并不对,它更该被看成一笔循环周转的资金。每天我们都在支付旧赔案——2013 年就向 500 多万索赔人付出约 170 亿美元——这会消耗浮存金;同样确凿的是,我们每天也在承接新业务、催生新赔案,为浮存金添砖加瓦。倘若这笔循环浮存金既无成本又能长久留存——我相信正是如此——那么这项负债的真实价值,就远低于会计上的负债数。与这项被高估的负债相对应的,是 155 亿美元的“商誉”,它挂在我们保险公司名下,作为资产计入账面价值。这笔商誉在很大程度上,正是我们为保险业务那份创造浮存金的本事所付的价钱。不过,商誉的成本与它的真实价值并无关系。举例来说,一家保险公司若长期蒙受巨额承保亏损,那账上的商誉无论当初花了多少钱,都该视同一文不值。所幸,伯克希尔并非如此。查理和我相信,我们保险商誉的真实经济价值——也就是我们乐意花多少钱去买一家浮存金质量堪比我们的保险公司——远高于其历史账面值。浮存金的价值,正是我们相信伯克希尔内在商业价值远超账面价值的一大缘由,而且是极其重要的一条。

If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company besides, incurred an underwriting loss in nine of the twelve years ending in 2012 (the latest year for which their financials are available, as I write this). Competitive dynamics almost guarantee that the insurance industry – despite the float income all companies enjoy – will continue its dismal record of earning subnormal returns as compared to other businesses. As noted in the first section of this report, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for eleven consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $22 billion. Looking ahead, I believe we will continue to underwrite profitably in most years. Doing so is the daily focus of all of our insurance managers who know that while float is valuable, it can be drowned by poor underwriting results. So how does our float affect intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and could not replenish it. But to think of float as strictly a liability is incorrect; it should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. Daily, we pay old claims – some $17 billion to more than five million claimants in 2013 – and that reduces float. Just as surely, we each day write new business and thereby generate new claims that add to float. If our revolving float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe it will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability. A counterpart to this overstated liability is $15.5 billion of “goodwill” that is attributable to our insurance companies and included in book value as an asset. In very large part, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. For example, if an insurance business sustains large and prolonged underwriting losses, any goodwill asset carried on the books should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost. Fortunately, that does not describe Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill – what we would happily pay to purchase an insurance operation possessing float of similar quality to that we have – to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. The value of our float is one reason – a huge reason – why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds its book value.

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伯克希尔的保险业务之所以经济效益诱人,全靠一批极其出色的经理人,他们经营着纪律严明、模式强悍且难以复制的生意。下面我逐一介绍几个主要单元。按浮存金规模排在首位的,是阿吉特·贾恩执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团。阿吉特承接的,是别人既无意愿、也无资本去扛的风险。他的运作把承保能力、速度、决断,以及最关键的——头脑,融为一体,在保险界独一无二。可他从不让伯克希尔去冒与自身资源不相称的风险。事实上,论规避风险,我们比多数大型保险公司都要保守得多。打个比方,倘若保险业因某场超级灾难蒙受 2500 亿美元损失——约莫是行业史上最大损失的三倍——伯克希尔整体当年多半仍会录得可观利润,因为我们盈利来源众多。而且,若这场灾难吓得市场乱了方寸,我们照样现金满仓,四处物色大机会;与此同时,其余所有大型保险和再保险公司都将深陷亏损,有些甚至濒临破产。从 1985 年白手起家,阿吉特打造出一门浮存金 370 亿美元、累计承保利润丰厚的保险生意,这份成就至今没有哪位保险公司首席执行官能望其项背。阿吉特的脑子就是一座点子工厂,总在琢磨往现有版图里再添几条新业务线。

Berkshire’s attractive insurance economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running disciplined operations that possess strong, hard-to-replicate business models. Let me tell you about the major units. First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, managed by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, we are far more conservative in avoiding risk than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some megacatastrophe – a loss about triple anything it has ever experienced – Berkshire as a whole would likely record a significant profit for the year because of its many streams of earnings. And we would remain awash in cash, looking for large opportunities if the catastrophe caused markets to go into shock. All other major insurers and reinsurers would meanwhile be far in the red, with some facing insolvency. From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $37 billion and a large cumulative underwriting profit, a feat no other insurance CEO has come close to matching. Ajit’s mind is an idea factory that is always looking for more lines of business he can add to his current assortment.

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去年 6 月,他成立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦专业保险公司(BHSI),这门业务就此落地。此举把我们带进了商业保险领域,而全美各大保险经纪商和企业风险经理几乎当即就接纳了我们。这些行家清楚,没有哪家保险公司比得上伯克希尔的财务实力——它担保着,多年以后到期的合法索赔都会得到及时、足额的赔付。BHSI 由彼得·伊斯特伍德领军,他是一位经验老到、在保险界广受敬重的承保人。彼得已组建起一支一流团队,正为众多《财富》500 强企业乃至中小客户承接大量业务。BHSI 会成为伯克希尔的一大重要资产,几年内就能带来数十亿美元的业务量。股东大会上见到彼得,请用伯克希尔的方式跟他打个招呼。

One venture materialized last June when he formed Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (“BHSI”). This initiative took us into commercial insurance, where we were instantly accepted by both major insurance brokers and corporate risk managers throughout America. These professionals recognize that no other insurer can match the financial strength of Berkshire, which guarantees that legitimate claims arising many years in the future will be paid promptly and fully. BHSI is led by Peter Eastwood, an experienced underwriter who is widely respected in the insurance world. Peter has assembled a spectacular team that is already writing a substantial amount of business with many Fortune 500 companies and with smaller operations as well. BHSI will be a major asset for Berkshire, one that will generate volume in the billions within a few years. Give Peter a Berkshire greeting when you see him at the annual meeting.

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我们还有另一家再保险巨头——通用再保险,由泰德·蒙特罗斯掌管。归根结底,一门稳健的保险生意要守住四条纪律:一、摸清所有可能让保单产生损失的风险敞口;二、审慎评估每一项敞口真正酿成损失的概率,以及一旦发生大约会赔多少;三、把保费定在一个平均而言能在覆盖预期赔付与运营开支后仍有盈余的水平;四、拿不到合适的保费就敢于掉头走人。许多保险公司过了前三关,却栽在第四关上——他们就是没法眼睁睁看着对手抢着承保而无动于衷。那句老话“别人都在做,我们也得做”,在哪行都是麻烦的开端,在保险业尤其如此。泰德把这四条保险戒律守得严丝合缝,业绩就是明证。在他手里,通用再保险那笔巨额浮存金不但没有成本,反而带来收益,我们预计平均而言这局面会延续下去。我们尤其看好通用再保险的国际人寿再保险业务,自 1998 年收购该公司以来,它一直稳步增长、盈利可观。别忘了,我们买下通用再保险后不久,公司就接连出岔子,闹得评论员们——连我也一度如此——以为我犯了个大错。那样的日子早已远去。如今的通用再保险,是一颗宝石。

We have another reinsurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross. At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained. Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance. Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, to continue. We are particularly enthusiastic about General Re’s international life reinsurance business, which has grown consistently and profitably since we acquired the company in 1998. It can be remembered that soon after we purchased General Re, the company was beset by problems that caused commentators – and me as well, briefly – to believe I had made a huge mistake. That day is long gone. General Re is now a gem.

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最后是 GEICO,63 年前我就是在这家公司踏入保险业的。GEICO 由托尼·奈斯利掌舵,他 18 岁入职,到 2013 年已服务满 52 年。托尼 1993 年出任首席执行官,此后公司一路高歌。1951 年 1 月我头一回接触 GEICO,就被它相对行业巨头的巨大成本优势震住了。这份运营效率延续至今,是一项举足轻重的资产。没人乐意买车险,可几乎人人都爱开车;对多数家庭而言,这份保险是一笔不小的开销,能省则省——而只有低成本的运营才省得下来。正是这份成本优势,让 GEICO 得以年复一年蚕食市场份额。低成本筑起了一道护城河——一道经久不衰的护城河——竞争对手无从跨越。与此同时,我们那只小壁虎还在不停告诉美国人,GEICO 能替他们省下多少真金白银。随着我们运营成本再度下调,它的说辞也更有底气了。

Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 63 years ago. GEICO is managed by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 52 years of service in 2013. Tony became CEO in 1993, and since then the company has been flying. When I was first introduced to GEICO in January 1951, I was blown away by the huge cost advantage the company enjoyed compared to the expenses borne by the giants of the industry. That operational efficiency continues today and is an all-important asset. No one likes to buy auto insurance. But almost everyone likes to drive. The insurance needed is a major expenditure for most families. Savings matter to them – and only a low-cost operation can deliver these. GEICO’s cost advantage is the factor that has enabled the company to gobble up market share year after year. Its low costs create a moat – an enduring one – that competitors are unable to cross. Meanwhile, our little gecko continues to tell Americans how GEICO can save them important money. With our latest reduction in operating costs, his story has become even more compelling.

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9

1995 年,我们收购了尚未持有的那半份 GEICO 股权,为此付出的价格比所得净有形资产高出 14 亿美元。这就是“商誉”,它会永远原封不动地挂在我们账上。可随着 GEICO 业务壮大,它真实的经济商誉也在增长。我估计这个数字正逼近 200 亿美元。

In 1995, we purchased the half of GEICO that we didn’t already own, paying $1.4 billion more than the net tangible assets we acquired. That’s “goodwill,” and it will forever remain unchanged on our books. As GEICO’s business grows, however, so does its true economic goodwill. I believe that figure to be approaching $20 billion.

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除了三大保险业务,我们还拥有一批规模较小的公司,多数在保险业的犄角旮旯里营生。整体来看,它们是一门持续实现承保盈利的成长型生意;而且如下表所示,还为我们贡献了可观的浮存金。查理和我珍视这些公司和它们的经理人。

In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them plying their trade in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, these companies are a growing operation that consistently delivers an underwriting profit. Moreover, as the table below shows, they also provide us with substantial float. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers.

保险业务

Insurance Operations

承保利润 年末浮存金(单位:百万美元) 2013 年 2012 年 2013 年 2012 年

Underwriting Profit Yearend Float (in millions) 2013 2012 2013 2012

承保利润(百万)年末浮动
保险运营2013201220132012
BH再保险$1,294$ 304$37,231$34,821
通用再保险公司28335520,01320,128
GEICO1,12768012,56611,578
其他主要业务3852867,4306,598
$3,089$1,625$77,240$73,125
Underwriting Profit(in millions)Yearend Float
Insurance Operations2013201220132012
BH Reinsurance$1,294$ 304$37,231$34,821
General Re28335520,01320,128
GEICO1,12768012,56611,578
Other Primary3852867,4306,598
$3,089$1,625$77,240$73,125

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说白了,保险卖的是承诺。“客户”现在付钱,保险公司承诺:如果未来某些事件发生,就掏钱赔付。有时,这份承诺要过几十年才经受考验。(想想二十来岁的人买下的寿险。)因此,保险公司赔不赔得起、愿不愿意赔——即便到了该赔钱的时候经济一片混乱——就成了头等大事。伯克希尔的承诺无出其右,全球最大、最老练的保险公司近年来的行动也印证了这一点:其中一些公司想甩掉规模巨大且极其长命的负债,尤其是那些涉及石棉索赔的负债。也就是说,这些公司想把负债“分保”给再保险公司。可要是选错了再保险公司——选了一家日后被证明财力吃紧或品行不端的——那原保险公司就有把负债又原封接回自己手里的风险。几乎无一例外,寻求援手的最大保险公司都找上了伯克希尔。事实上,在有记录以来规模最大的一笔此类交易中,劳合社在 2007 年将两拨索赔一起转给了我们:一拨是源自 1993 年之前所签保单的数千笔已知索赔,另一拨是同一时期必定会在未来浮现、数量未知却极其庞大的索赔。(没错,几十年后我们还会收到针对 1993 年之前所发生事件的索赔。)伯克希尔最终要为劳合社这笔交易付多少钱,今天无从知晓。但可以肯定的是,一切有效的索赔,伯克希尔都会赔付,直至我们保单约定的 150 亿美元上限。换作别家保险公司的承诺,都给不了劳合社在与伯克希尔所签协议中得到的那份安心。当时负责处理劳合社索赔的那家实体的首席执行官,说了一句最妙的话:“那些‘成员’(劳合社的原保险人)想夜里睡个安稳觉,而我们觉得,我们刚刚给他们买来了全世界最好的一张床垫。”

Simply put, insurance is the sale of promises. The “customer” pays money now; the insurer promises to pay money in the future if certain events occur. Sometimes, the promise will not be tested for decades. (Think of life insurance bought by those in their 20s.) Therefore, both the ability and willingness of the insurer to pay – even if economic chaos prevails when payment time arrives – is all-important. Berkshire’s promises have no equal, a fact affirmed in recent years by the actions of the world’s largest and most sophisticated insurers, some of which have wanted to shed themselves of huge and exceptionally longlived liabilities, particularly those involving asbestos claims. That is, these insurers wished to “cede” their liabilities to a reinsurer. Choosing the wrong reinsurer, however – one that down the road proved to be financially strapped or a bad actor – would put the original insurer in danger of getting the liabilities right back in its lap. Almost without exception, the largest insurers seeking aid came to Berkshire. Indeed, in the largest such transaction ever recorded, Lloyd’s in 2007 turned over to us both many thousands of known claims arising from policies written before 1993 and an unknown but huge number of claims from that same period sure to materialize in the future. (Yes, we will be receiving claims decades from now that apply to events taking place prior to 1993.) Berkshire’s ultimate payments arising from the Lloyd’s transaction are today unknowable. What is certain, however, is that Berkshire will pay all valid claims up to the $15 billion limit of our policy. No other insurer’s promise would have given Lloyd’s the comfort provided by its agreement with Berkshire. The CEO of the entity then handling Lloyd’s claims said it best: “Names [the original insurers at Lloyd’s] wanted to sleep easy at night, and we think we’ve just bought them the world’s best mattress.”

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杰出的经理人、一流的财务实力,再加上多种拥有宽阔护城河的商业模式,共同造就了伯克希尔在保险界的独一无二。这种组合对伯克希尔股东而言是一笔巨大的资产,而且只会随着时间的推移而更加值钱。

Berkshire’s great managers, premier financial strength and a variety of business models possessing wide moats form something unique in the insurance world. The combination is a huge asset for Berkshire shareholders that will only get more valuable with time.

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受监管的资本密集型业务。“公用事业行业虽有诸多监管限制,但我们仍有可能在这一领域追加投入。真要出手的话,涉及的金额可能相当庞大。”

Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses “Though there are many regulatory restraints in the utility industry, it’s possible that we will make additional commitments in the field. If we do, the amounts involved could be large.”

——1999 年年报

— 1999 Annual Report

我们有两项核心业务——BNSF 和中美能源——它们具有一些重要特征,将自己同旗下其他业务区别开来。因此,我们在这封信中为它们单独安排了一节,并在按 GAAP 编制的资产负债表和利润表中,将其财务数据合并后单独列示。两家公司的一个关键特征,是对使用年限极长的受监管资产投入了巨资,这些投资部分由大额长期债务提供资金,而相关债务并无伯克希尔提供担保。事实上,我们并不需要动用伯克希尔的信用,因为两家公司都具备盈利实力,即便在极为糟糕的经济环境下,其盈利也远超利息支出需求。例如,去年 BNSF 的利息保障倍数为 9:1。(我们对保障倍数的定义是税前利润/利息,而不是 EBITDA/利息,后者是常用指标,但我们认为有严重缺陷。)与此同时,在中美能源这边,有两个因素确保公司无论遇到什么情况都还得上债。第一个因素是抗衰退的盈利,所有公用事业公司都具备这一特征,因为这些公司独家提供一种必需的服务。第二个因素则是其他公用事业公司极少享有的:盈利来源高度多元化,这让我们不至于因任何单一监管机构而遭受严重冲击。如今加上对 NV Energy 的收购,中美能源的盈利基础又进一步拓宽。这份独特优势,加上有伯克希尔作为股东,让中美能源及其公用事业子公司得以大幅降低债务成本。这一优势让我们和我们的客户都从中受益。每一天,我们的这两家子公司都以举足轻重的方式为美国经济注入动力:

We have two major operations, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy, that share important characteristics distinguishing them from our other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own section in this letter and split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement. A key characteristic of both companies is their huge investment in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is in fact not needed because each company has earning power that even under terrible economic conditions will far exceed its interest requirements. Last year, for example, BNSF’s interest coverage was 9:1. (Our definition of coverage is pre-tax earnings/interest, not EBITDA/interest, a commonly-used measure we view as seriously flawed.) At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two factors ensure the company’s ability to service its debt under all circumstances. The first is common to all utilities: recession-resistant earnings, which result from these companies exclusively offering an essential service. The second is enjoyed by few other utilities: a great diversity of earnings streams, which shield us from being seriously harmed by any single regulatory body. Now, with the acquisition of NV Energy, MidAmerican’s earnings base has further broadened. This particular strength, supplemented by Berkshire’s ownership, has enabled MidAmerican and its utility subsidiaries to significantly lower their cost of debt. This advantage benefits both us and our customers. Every day, our two subsidiaries power the American economy in major ways: Š

无论货物由卡车、铁路、水路、空运还是管道运送,全美约 15%(按吨英里计算)的城际货运都是由 BNSF 承运的。事实上,我们承运的货物吨英里数远超任何其他公司,这一事实让 BNSF 成了美国经济循环系统中最重要的那条动脉。2013 年,其头把交椅坐得更稳了。BNSF 同所有铁路一样,还以一种极其节油、极为环保的方式运送货物:一加仑柴油就能将一吨货物运送约 500 英里。同样一趟活儿换成卡车,耗油量大约是铁路的四倍。

BNSF carries about 15% (measured by ton-miles) of all inter-city freight, whether it is transported by truck, rail, water, air, or pipeline. Indeed, we move more ton-miles of goods than anyone else, a fact establishing BNSF as the most important artery in our economy’s circulatory system. Its hold on the number-one position strengthened in 2013. BNSF, like all railroads, also moves its cargo in an extraordinarily fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly way, carrying a ton of freight about 500 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. Trucks taking on the same job guzzle about four times as much fuel.

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中美能源旗下的公用事业公司为 11 个州的受监管零售客户提供服务,没有哪家公用事业公司的版图铺得更广。此外,我们在可再生能源领域也处于领先地位:九年前从零起步,如今中美能源已占全美风电发电容量的 7%,还有更多项目蓄势待发。我们在太阳能发电领域的份额——其中大部分仍在建设中——甚至更大。中美能源之所以能进行这些投资,是因为它留存了全部盈利。这里有个鲜为人知的事实:去年,中美能源留存的盈利金额远超其他任何一家美国电力公用事业公司,而且优势相当明显。我们和监管机构都视之为一项重要优势——而且几乎可以肯定的是,这一优势在五年后、十年后乃至二十年后仍将存在。

MidAmerican’s utilities serve regulated retail customers in eleven states. No utility company stretches further. In addition, we are the leader in renewables: From a standing start nine years ago, MidAmerican now accounts for 7% of the country’s wind generation capacity, with more on the way. Our share in solar – most of which is still in construction – is even larger. MidAmerican can make these investments because it retains all of its earnings. Here’s a little known fact: Last year MidAmerican retained more dollars of earnings – by far – than any other American electric utility. We and our regulators see this as an important advantage – one almost certain to exist five, ten and twenty years from now.

待我们目前在建的项目全部完工后,中美能源的可再生能源资产组合累计将耗资 150 亿美元。只要这些投入能承诺带来合理回报,我们就乐于作出这样的出资承诺。而在这一点上,我们对未来的监管寄予了很大程度的信任。

When our current projects are completed, MidAmerican’s renewables portfolio will have cost $15 billion. We relish making such commitments as long as they promise reasonable returns. And, on that front, we put a large amount of trust in future regulation.

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我们的信心是有理由的,这既来自过往的经验,也来自一个认知:社会永远需要对交通和能源进行巨额投资。以一种能确保资金持续流向关键项目的方式来对待出资方,这本身就符合政府自身的利益。与此同时,以一种能赢得监管机构及其所代表民众认可的方式来开展经营,也符合我们自身的利益。去年一项覆盖 52 家控股公司及其 101 家运营电力公用事业的客户满意度调查,为我们履行这项职责的努力提供了实实在在的证明:我们的中美能源集团排名第一,95.3% 的受访者给了我们“非常满意”的评价,没有任何一位客户给出“不满意”的评价。顺带一提,调查中垫底的那家,满意度是惨淡的 34.5%。在我们这三家公司被中美能源收购之前,按这项指标衡量,它们的排名都要低得多。我们所取得的如此卓越的客户满意度,在扩张之际至关重要:我们希望能进入的那些州的监管机构,乐见我们到来,因为他们知道我们会是负责任的运营者。我们的铁路在预判客户需求方面同样勤勉尽责。无论你听过多少关于美国基础设施破败不堪的说法,那都与 BNSF 或整个铁路行业无关。美国铁路系统从未像今天这样处于完好的状态,这是铁路行业进行巨额投资的结果。不过,我们并没有因此止步:2013 年,BNSF 向铁路投入了 40 亿美元,相当于其折旧费用的两倍,也创下了单一铁路公司年度投资的纪录。而 2014 年,我们还将投入更多。就像早早预见到可靠交通工具之必要性的诺亚一样,我们明白,提前筹划是我们的分内之事。执掌我们这两家资本密集型公司的,是中美能源的格雷格·阿贝尔,以及 BNSF 的马特·罗斯和卡尔·艾斯这对搭档。这三位都是了不起的管理者,我对他们心怀感激,你们也应该如此。

Our confidence is justified both by our past experience and by the knowledge that society will forever need massive investments in both transportation and energy. It is in the self-interest of governments to treat capital providers in a manner that will ensure the continued flow of funds to essential projects. It is meanwhile in our selfinterest to conduct our operations in a way that earns the approval of our regulators and the people they represent. Tangible proof of our dedication to that duty was delivered last year in a poll of customer satisfaction covering 52 holding companies and their 101 operating electric utilities. Our MidAmerican group ranked number one, with 95.3% of respondents giving us a “very satisfied” vote and not a single customer rating us “dissatisfied.” The bottom score in the survey, incidentally, was a dismal 34.5%. All three of our companies were ranked far lower by this measure before they were acquired by MidAmerican. The extraordinary customer satisfaction we have achieved is of great importance as we expand: Regulators in states we hope to enter are glad to see us, knowing we will be responsible operators. Our railroad has been diligent as well in anticipating the needs of its customers. Whatever you may have heard about our country’s crumbling infrastructure in no way applies to BNSF or railroads generally. America’s rail system has never been in better shape, a consequence of huge investments by the industry. We are not, however, resting: BNSF spent $4 billion on the railroad in 2013, double its depreciation charge and a single-year record for any railroad. And, we will spend considerably more in 2014. Like Noah, who foresaw early on the need for dependable transportation, we know it’s our job to plan ahead. Leading our two capital-intensive companies are Greg Abel, at MidAmerican, and the team of Matt Rose and Carl Ice at BNSF. The three are extraordinary managers who have my gratitude and deserve yours as well.

以下是他们业务的关键数据:

Here are the key figures for their businesses:

中美能源(持股 89.8%)

MidAmerican (89.8% owned)

利润(单位:百万美元) 2013 年 2012 年 2011 年

Earnings (in millions) 2013 2012 2011

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

英国公用事业 …… 爱荷华公用事业 …… 西部公用事业 …… 管道 …… 美国房屋服务公司 …… 其他(净额) ……

U.K. utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Iowa utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Western utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pipelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HomeServices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other (net) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$

$

362 230 982 385 139 4
362 230 982 385 139 4

$

$

429 236 737 383 82 91
429 236 737 383 82 91

$

$

469 279 771 388 39 36
469 279 771 388 39 36

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公司利息与所得税前经营利润 …… 利息 …… 所得税 ……

Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Income taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2,102 296 170
1,958 314 172
1,982 336 315
2,102 296 170
1,958 314 172
1,982 336 315

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净利润 ……

Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 1,636
$ 1,472
$ 1,331
$ 1,636
$ 1,472
$ 1,331

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归属于伯克希尔的利润 ……

Earnings applicable to Berkshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 1,470
$ 1,323
$ 1,204
$ 1,470
$ 1,323
$ 1,204

BNSF

BNSF

收入(单位:百万美元) 2013 年 2012 年 2011 年

Earnings (in millions) 2013 2012 2011

BNSF2013收益(百万美元)2012年2011
营业收入$22,014$20,835$19,548
经营费用15,35714,83514,247
利息及税前经营收益6,6576,0005,301
利息(净额)729623560
所得税2,1352,0051,769
净利润$ 3,793$ 3,372$ 2,972
BNSF2013Earnings (in millions) 20122011
Revenues$22,014$20,835$19,548
Operating expenses15,35714,83514,247
Operating earnings before interest and taxes6,6576,0005,301
Interest (net)729623560
Income taxes2,1352,0051,769
Net earnings$ 3,793$ 3,372$ 2,972
$ 3,793
$ 3,372
$ 2,972
12
$ 3,793
$ 3,372
$ 2,972
12

罗恩·佩尔蒂埃继续壮大中美能源旗下的房地产经纪子公司 HomeServices。去年他的团队完成四笔收购,其中最重要的是总部设在费城的 Fox & Roach——全美单一市场里规模最大的房产经纪商。HomeServices 如今拥有 22,114 名经纪人(按地区列于第 112 页),比 2012 年增长 38%。它还持有 Prudential 和 Real Living 两家特许经营公司 67% 的股权,正着手把旗下加盟商统一更名为 Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices。要是你还没留意到,很快就会在许多“待售”标牌上看到我们的名字了。

Ron Peltier continues to build HomeServices, MidAmerican’s real estate brokerage subsidiary. Last year his operation made four acquisitions, the most significant being Fox & Roach, a Philadelphia-based company that is the largest single-market realtor in the country. HomeServices now has 22,114 agents (listed by geography on page 112), up 38% from 2012. HomeServices also owns 67% of the Prudential and Real Living franchise operations, which are in the process of rebranding their franchisees as Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. If you haven’t yet, many of you will soon be seeing our name on “for sale” signs. Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations “See that store,” Warren says, pointing at Nebraska Furniture Mart. “That’s a really good business.” “Why don’t you buy it?” I said. “It’s privately held,” Warren said. “Oh,” I said. “I might buy it anyway,” Warren said. “Someday.” — Supermoney by Adam Smith (1972) Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/13 (in millions) Assets

负债与权益

Liabilities and Equity

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现金及等价物 应收账款和应收票据

Cash and equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Accounts and notes receivable . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 6,625 7,749
$ 6,625 7,749

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应付票据 其他流动负债

Notes payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 1,615 8,965
$ 1,615 8,965

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存货 其他流动资产

Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

9,945 716
9,945 716

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流动负债合计……

Total current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10,580
10,580

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流动资产总计……

Total current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25,035
25,035

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商誉及其他无形资产……固定资产……其他资产……

Goodwill and other intangibles . . . . . . . . . . . . Fixed assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25,617 19,389 4,274
25,617 19,389 4,274

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递延所得税 定期债务及其他负债 非控制权益 伯克希尔·哈撒韦所有者权益

Deferred taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Term debt and other liabilities . . . . . . . Non-controlling interests . . . . . . . . . . . . Berkshire equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5,184 4,405 456 53,690
$74,315
$74,315
5,184 4,405 456 53,690
$74,315
$74,315

收益表(单位:百万美元) 2013

Earnings Statement (in millions) 2013

2012
2011
2012
2011
201320122011
营业收入$95,291$83,255$72,406
经营费用88,41476,97867,239
利息费用135146130
税前收益6,7426,1315,037
所得税和非控制性权益2,5122,4321,998
净利润$ 4,230$ 3,699$ 3,039
201320122011
Revenues$95,291$83,255$72,406
Operating expenses88,41476,97867,239
Interest expense135146130
Pre-tax earnings6,7426,1315,037
Income taxes and non-controlling interests2,5122,4321,998
Net earnings$ 4,230$ 3,699$ 3,039
$ 4,230
$ 3,699
$ 3,039
$ 4,230
$ 3,699
$ 3,039

第 29 页是我们符合公认会计原则(GAAP)的收支数据。相比之下,上表中的营业费用是非 GAAP 口径,剔除了某些购买法会计项目(主要是特定无形资产的摊销)。我们之所以这样列示,是因为查理和我认为,比起 GAAP 数字,调整后的数字更能如实反映表中这批企业真实的经济费用与利润。

Our income and expense data conforming to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) is on page 29. In contrast, the operating expense figures above are non-GAAP and exclude some purchase-accounting items (primarily the amortization of certain intangible assets). We present the data in this manner because Charlie and I believe the adjusted numbers more accurately reflect the true economic expenses and profits of the businesses aggregated in the table than do GAAP figures.

13
13

我不打算把每一项调整都讲一遍——有些既琐碎又晦涩——但认真的投资者应当明白无形资产性质各异:有些确实会随时间消耗,另一些则丝毫不会贬值。以软件为例,摊销费用是货真价实的开支;可像客户关系这类无形资产的摊销,则是购买法会计规则的产物,显然算不上真实成本。GAAP 对这两类费用一视同仁——计算盈利时都当费用扣除,尽管在投资者眼里,它们判若云泥。在我们第 29 页那份合规的 GAAP 数据里,本节所含公司有 6.48 亿美元摊销费用被当作开支扣掉了。其中约两成我们会称为“真实”费用,其余则不然。由于我们做了大量收购,这一差异已相当可观;随着收购增多,它几乎肯定还会拉大。当然,等相关资产摊销完毕,那些非真实的费用最终会消失。可这通常要花 15 年——唉——到那时享受摊销到期红利、报告盈利因此变好的,已是我的继任者了。不过,我们报告的每一分钱折旧,都是真实成本,这在几乎所有别的公司也一样。所以,当华尔街那帮人拿 EBITDA 当估值标尺来兜售时,请捂紧你的钱包。当然,我们对外公布的盈利仍会照 GAAP 来;但为了贴近现实,别忘了把我们报出的绝大部分摊销费用加回去。

I won’t explain all of the adjustments – some are tiny and arcane – but serious investors should understand the disparate nature of intangible assets: Some truly deplete over time while others in no way lose value. With software, for example, amortization charges are very real expenses. Charges against other intangibles such as the amortization of customer relationships, however, arise through purchase-accounting rules and are clearly not real costs. GAAP accounting draws no distinction between the two types of charges. Both, that is, are recorded as expenses when earnings are calculated – even though from an investor’s viewpoint they could not be more different. In the GAAP-compliant figures we show on page 29, amortization charges of $648 million for the companies included in this section are deducted as expenses. We would call about 20% of these “real,” the rest not. This difference has become significant because of the many acquisitions we have made. It will almost certainly rise further as we acquire more companies. Eventually, of course, the non-real charges disappear when the assets to which they’re related become fully amortized. But this usually takes 15 years and – alas – it will be my successor whose reported earnings get the benefit of their expiration. Every dime of depreciation expense we report, however, is a real cost. And that’s true at almost all other companies as well. When Wall Streeters tout EBITDA as a valuation guide, button your wallet. Our public reports of earnings will, of course, continue to conform to GAAP. To embrace reality, however, remember to add back most of the amortization charges we report.

****

****

这一组公司卖的东西五花八门,从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机应有尽有。若按无杠杆有形资产净值的收益来衡量,有些企业的经济效益好得出奇,税后利润从 25% 一路高到远超 100%;另一些回报不错,在 12% 到 20% 之间;也有少数几家回报很差,那是我在资本配置上犯下若干严重错误的结果。我并非被人误导,纯粹是自己看走了眼,误判了那家公司或那个行业的经济动态。所幸,我的这些失手多半发生在相对较小的收购上;大手笔的收购整体都不错,有几笔甚至远超预期。不过,无论买企业还是买股票,我都远没到不再犯错的地步——不是每件事都能如愿。把这一组公司当作一个整体来看,它是门相当出色的生意:2013 年平均动用 250 亿美元有形资产净值,在坐拥大量超额现金、几乎不加杠杆的情况下,资本税后回报率达 16.7%。当然,买价过高的话,经济效益再好的企业也会沦为糟糕的投资。旗下大多数企业,我们都为超出有形资产净值的部分付了可观溢价,这笔成本就体现在账上那个庞大的商誉数字里。但总体而言,我们在这一板块投下的资本获得了体面的回报;而且这些企业的内在价值加总,也明显高于账面价值。即便如此,保险和受监管行业两个板块内在价值与账面价值之间的差距还要大得多——真正的大赢家,都藏在那里。

The crowd of companies in this section sells products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of these businesses, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets, enjoy terrific economics, producing profits that run from 25% after-tax to far more than 100%. Others generate good returns in the area of 12% to 20%. A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. I was not misled: I simply was wrong in my evaluation of the economic dynamics of the company or the industry in which it operated. Fortunately, my blunders usually involved relatively small acquisitions. Our large buys have generally worked out well and, in a few cases, more than well. I have not, however, made my last mistake in purchasing either businesses or stocks. Not everything works out as planned. Viewed as a single entity, the companies in this group are an excellent business. They employed an average of $25 billion of net tangible assets during 2013 and, with large quantities of excess cash and little leverage, earned 16.7% after-tax on that capital. Of course, a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if the purchase price is excessive. We have paid substantial premiums to net tangible assets for most of our businesses, a cost that is reflected in the large figure we show for goodwill. Overall, however, we are getting a decent return on the capital we have deployed in this sector. Furthermore, the intrinsic value of these businesses, in aggregate, exceeds their carrying value by a good margin. Even so, the difference between intrinsic value and carrying value in the insurance and regulated-industry segments is far greater. It is there that the truly big winners reside.

****

****

这一组公司太多,没法逐家点评。再者,现有和潜在的竞争对手也会读这份报告;在少数业务上,他们要是摸清了我们的数字,我们可能会吃亏。因此,对于那些规模不足以影响伯克希尔整体估值的业务,我们只披露监管所要求的内容。不过,第 80 至 84 页对我们许多业务都有相当详尽的介绍,你可以在那里找到。

We have far too many companies in this group to comment on them individually. Moreover, both current and potential competitors read this report. In a few of our businesses we might be disadvantaged if they knew our numbers. So, in some of our operations that are not of a size material to an evaluation of Berkshire, we only disclose what is required. You can find a good bit of detail about many of our operations, however, on pages 80-84.

14
14

不过,内布拉斯加家具城进军德州的最新进展,我还是忍不住要跟你们说道说道。我提这件事,并非因为它对伯克希尔的经济有多要紧——在伯克希尔 2250 亿美元的股本面前,开一家新店根本掀不起波澜。可我同了不起的布拉姆金一家已共事 30 年,他们正在达拉斯都会区北部的科勒尼盖的那家店——货真价实的“德州尺寸”——让我兴奋不已。明年店铺竣工后,NFM 将在一块 433 英亩的地皮上、同一屋檐之下,坐拥 180 万平方英尺的零售及配套仓储空间。想看工程进度,请上 www.nfm.com/texas。NFM 已经手握全美销量最高的两家家居卖场(分别在奥马哈和堪萨斯州堪萨斯城),各自年销约 4.5 亿美元。我敢断言,德州这家店会把这些纪录远远甩开。你要是住在达拉斯附近,欢迎来逛逛。我常想起 1983 年 8 月 30 日——那天是我的生日——我揣着自己起草的一份一页半的 NFM 收购提案,去见 B 夫人(罗丝·布拉姆金)。(提案重印在第 114 至 115 页。)B 夫人一字未改就应下了我的报价,我们没请投行、也没请律师就把交易做成了(这种体验只能用“如登天堂”来形容)。公司的财务报表虽未经审计,我却一点不担心——B 夫人把家底一五一十告诉我,她的话对我就足够了。B 夫人当时 89 岁,一直干到 103 岁——绝对是我欣赏的那种女人。翻到第 116 至 117 页,看看 NFM 从 1946 年起的财务报表吧。NFM 今日所拥有的一切,都源自两样东西:其一,当年公司仅有的 72,264 美元净资产和 50 美元现金——数字没错,一个零都没漏;其二,B 夫人、她儿子路易,以及路易的两个儿子罗恩和欧文那非凡的才干。这故事的点睛之笔在于:B 夫人一天学都没上过。不仅如此,她从俄国移民到美国时,一个英文单词都不认识。可她深爱这片收留她的土地:应 B 夫人的心愿,家人每逢聚会总要唱起《上帝保佑美国》。有志的企业管理者,真该好好端详那些造就 B 夫人惊人成就的品质——朴素,却难得。每年有来自 40 所大学的学生来看我,我总让他们头一天先去 NFM 转一转。他们要是把 B 夫人的功课学到手,就用不着我再教什么了。金融与金融产品。“用不了几年,克莱顿的贷款组合很可能会增长到至少 50 亿美元;只要信贷标准合理,它应能贡献可观的盈利。”

I can’t resist, however, giving you an update on Nebraska Furniture Mart’s expansion into Texas. I’m not covering this event because of its economic importance to Berkshire – it takes more than a new store to move the needle on Berkshire’s $225 billion equity base. But I’ve now worked 30 years with the marvelous Blumkin family, and I’m excited about the remarkable store – truly Texas-sized – it is building at The Colony, in the northern part of the Dallas metropolitan area. When the store is completed next year, NFM will have – under one roof, and on a 433-acre site – 1.8 million square feet of retail and supporting warehouse space. View the project’s progress at www.nfm.com/texas. NFM already owns the two highest-volume home furnishings stores in the country (in Omaha and Kansas City, Kansas), each doing about $450 million annually. I predict the Texas store will blow these records away. If you live anywhere near Dallas, come check us out. I think back to August 30, 1983 – my birthday – when I went to see Mrs. B (Rose Blumkin), carrying a 1 1⁄ 4-page purchase proposal for NFM that I had drafted. (It’s reproduced on pages 114 - 115.) Mrs. B accepted my offer without changing a word, and we completed the deal without the involvement of investment bankers or lawyers (an experience that can only be described as heavenly). Though the company’s financial statements were unaudited, I had no worries. Mrs. B simply told me what was what, and her word was good enough for me. Mrs. B was 89 at the time and worked until 103 – definitely my kind of woman. Take a look at NFM’s financial statements from 1946 on pages 116 - 117. Everything NFM now owns comes from (a) that $72,264 of net worth and $50 – no zeros omitted – of cash the company then possessed, and (b) the incredible talents of Mrs. B, her son, Louie, and his sons Ron and Irv. The punch line to this story is that Mrs. B never spent a day in school. Moreover, she emigrated from Russia to America knowing not a word of English. But she loved her adopted country: At Mrs. B’s request, the family always sang God Bless America at its gatherings. Aspiring business managers should look hard at the plain, but rare, attributes that produced Mrs. B’s incredible success. Students from 40 universities visit me every year, and I have them start the day with a visit to NFM. If they absorb Mrs. B’s lessons, they need none from me. Finance and Financial Products “Clayton’s loan portfolio will likely grow to at least $5 billion in not too many years and, with sensible credit standards in place, should deliver significant earnings.”

2003 年年报

— 2003 Annual Report

这个板块是我们最小的一块,旗下有两家租赁公司——XTRA(拖车)和 CORT(家具)——以及美国活动房生产和融资的头号企业克莱顿家园。除这几家全资子公司外,我们还把一批金融资产,以及在 Berkadia 商业抵押贷款公司持有的 50% 权益,也归入这一类。之所以把克莱顿放这儿,是因为它持有并管理着 326,569 笔抵押贷款,总额 136 亿美元。前几年活动房销量暴跌,克莱顿的盈利很大一部分来自这项抵押贷款业务;但到了 2013 年,新房销售开始回暖,制造和零售两头的盈利又重新挑起了大梁。克莱顿仍是美国头号住宅建造商:2013 年建成 29,547 套住房,约占全美独栋住宅建造量的 4.7%。首席执行官凯文·克莱顿带领公司熬过严酷的楼市萧条,干得漂亮极了。如今他的活儿——这些日子明显有意思多了——还多了一桩念想:2014 年再添一笔盈利增长。

This sector, our smallest, includes two rental companies, XTRA (trailers) and CORT (furniture), as well as Clayton Homes, the country’s leading producer and financer of manufactured homes. Aside from these 100%owned subsidiaries, we also include in this category a collection of financial assets and our 50% interest in Berkadia Commercial Mortgage. Clayton is placed in this section because it owns and services 326,569 mortgages, totaling $13.6 billion. In recent years, as manufactured home sales plummeted, a high percentage of Clayton’s earnings came from this mortgage business. In 2013, however, the sale of new homes began to pick up and earnings from both manufacturing and retailing are again becoming significant. Clayton remains America’s number one homebuilder: Its 2013 output of 29,547 homes accounted for about 4.7% of all single-family residences built in the country. Kevin Clayton, Clayton’s CEO, has done a magnificent job of guiding the company through the severe housing depression. Now, his job – definitely more fun these days – includes the prospect of another earnings gain in 2014.

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CORT 和 XTRA 同样是各自行业的领头羊,杰夫·佩德森和比尔·弗朗茨会让它们稳坐头把交椅。我们正通过购置设备、扩大它们的租赁能力,来支持他们的规划。

CORT and XTRA are leaders in their industries as well. And Jeff Pederson and Bill Franz will keep them on top. We are backing their plans through purchases of equipment that enlarge their rental potential.

以下是该板块的税前收益汇总:

Here’s the pre-tax earnings recap for this sector:

2013
2013
2013年 Berkadia$ 802012年(百万美元) $ 352011 $ 25
克莱顿416255154
CORT404229
XTRA125106126
净财务收入*324410440
$985$848$ 774
2013 Berkadia$ 802012 (in millions) $ 352011 $ 25
Clayton416255154
CORT404229
XTRA125106126
Net financial income*324410440
$985$848$ 774

$

$

25 154 29 126 440
$985
$848
$ 774
25 154 29 126 440
$985
$848
$ 774

*不包括资本利得或亏损

投资

“我们的股票投资组合……相对于账面价值(成本)……低了大约 1700 万美元……我们相信,经过若干年时间,整个投资组合的价值将会超过其成本。”

  • Excludes capital gains or losses Investments “Our stock portfolio . . . was worth approximately $17 million less than its carrying value [cost] . . . it is our belief that, over a period of years, the overall portfolio will prove to be worth more than its cost.”

— 1974 年年报

— 1974 Annual Report

下面是我们年底市值最大的十五家普通股投资。

Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value.

12/31/13
12/31/13

股票**

Shares**

持有该公司的股份比例

Percentage of Company Owned

公司

Company

成本*

Cost*

市场

Market

151,610,700美国运通公司14.2$ 1,287$ 13,756
400,000,000可口可乐公司9.11,29916,524
22,238,900DIRECTV4.21,0171,536
41,129,643埃克森美孚公司0.93,7374,162
13,062,594高盛集团2.87502,315
68,121,984国际商业机器公司6.311,68112,778
24,669,778穆迪公司11.52481,936
20,060,390慕尼黑再保险11.22,9904,415
20,668,118Phillips 663.46601,594
52,477,678宝洁公司1.93364,272
22,169,930赛诺菲1.71,7472,354
301,046,076乐购公司3.71,6991,666
96,117,069美国合众银行5.33,0023,883
56,805,984沃尔玛百货公司1.82,9764,470
483,470,853富国银行公司9.211,87121,950
其他11,28119,894
按市价计量的普通股总计$56,581$117,505
151,610,700American Express Company14.2$ 1,287$ 13,756
400,000,000The Coca-Cola Company9.11,29916,524
22,238,900DIRECTV4.21,0171,536
41,129,643Exxon Mobil Corp0.93,7374,162
13,062,594The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc2.87502,315
68,121,984International Business Machines Corp6.311,68112,778
24,669,778Moody’s Corporation11.52481,936
20,060,390Munich Re11.22,9904,415
20,668,118Phillips 663.46601,594
52,477,678The Procter & Gamble Company1.93364,272
22,169,930Sanofi1.71,7472,354
301,046,076Tesco plc3.71,6991,666
96,117,069U.S. Bancorp5.33,0023,883
56,805,984Wal-Mart Stores, Inc1.82,9764,470
483,470,853Wells Fargo & Company9.211,87121,950
Others11,28119,894
Total Common Stocks Carried at Market$56,581$117,505
  • 这是我们实际的买入价格,也是我们的计税基础;GAAP“成本”在少数情况下因会计规则要求的减值或增值调整而有所不同。** 不含伯克希尔子公司养老基金持有的股份。

*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required under its rules. **Excludes shares held by Berkshire subsidiary pension funds.

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伯克希尔有一项重大股权投资未包含在上述表格中:我们可以在 2021 年 9 月之前的任何时候,用 50 亿美元买入 7 亿股美国银行股票。年末时,这些股票价值 109 亿美元。我们很可能会在期权到期前夕才行使买入权。在此期间,你们有必要明白一点:美国银行实际上是我们第五大股权投资,也是我们非常看重的一笔。除了股票投资,我们还把大量资金投在债券上。通常,我们在债券上做得不错,但并非总是如此。你们大多数人从未听说过“未来能源控股”这家公司。算你们走运;我倒真希望自己也没听过。该公司成立于 2007 年,目的是对得克萨斯州的电力资产进行一笔规模巨大的杠杆收购。股权投资者投入了 80 亿美元,另外还借了巨额债务。其中大约 20 亿美元的债务由伯克希尔买下,这项决定是我没跟查理商量就做的。那是个大错。除非天然气价格飙升,否则未来能源控股几乎肯定会在 2014 年申请破产。去年,我们以 2.59 亿美元卖掉了持仓。持有这些债券期间,我们收到了 8.37 亿美元的现金利息。因此,总体上我们税前亏损了 8.73 亿美元。下次我会先给查理打个电话。我们的几家子公司——主要是电力和天然气公用事业公司——在经营中会使用衍生品。除此之外,我们已经好几年没有签订任何新的衍生品合约,现有的头寸也在陆续到期。已经到期的合约带来了巨额利润,还产生了数十亿美元的中期浮存金。虽然没有保证,但我们预计剩余在账上的合约也会带来类似的结果。

Berkshire has one major equity position that is not included in the table: We can buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at any time prior to September 2021 for $5 billion. At yearend these shares were worth $10.9 billion. We are likely to purchase the shares just before expiration of our option. In the meantime, it is important for you to realize that Bank of America is, in effect, our fifth largest equity investment and one we value highly. In addition to our equity holdings, we also invest substantial sums in bonds. Usually, we’ve done well in these. But not always. Most of you have never heard of Energy Future Holdings. Consider yourselves lucky; I certainly wish I hadn’t. The company was formed in 2007 to effect a giant leveraged buyout of electric utility assets in Texas. The equity owners put up $8 billion and borrowed a massive amount in addition. About $2 billion of the debt was purchased by Berkshire, pursuant to a decision I made without consulting with Charlie. That was a big mistake. Unless natural gas prices soar, EFH will almost certainly file for bankruptcy in 2014. Last year, we sold our holdings for $259 million. While owning the bonds, we received $837 million in cash interest. Overall, therefore, we suffered a pre-tax loss of $873 million. Next time I’ll call Charlie. A few of our subsidiaries – primarily electric and gas utilities – use derivatives in their operations. Otherwise, we have not entered into any derivative contracts for some years, and our existing positions continue to run off. The contracts that have expired have delivered large profits as well as several billion dollars of mediumterm float. Though there are no guarantees, we expect a similar result from those remaining on our books.

关于投资的一些思考

Some Thoughts About Investing

投资最具智慧时,就是最贴近生意的时候。

Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike.

——《聪明的投资者》,本杰明·格雷厄姆 著

— The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

用本·格雷厄姆的一句话来开启这场讨论,再合适不过,因为我对投资的理解,绝大部分都得归功于他。稍后我会多谈谈本,还会更早一点谈到普通股。但先请容我讲两笔很久以前做的、与股票无关的小投资。它们都没怎么改变我的净资产,却很有启发。故事发生在内布拉斯加。1973 到 1981 年间,中西部农场价格猛涨,起因是人们普遍相信恶性通胀就要来了,乡下小银行的放贷政策又火上浇油。随后泡沫破裂,价格跌去五成甚至更多,把加了杠杆的农场主和他们的贷款人一并击垮。那场泡沫的余波里,爱荷华和内布拉斯加倒闭的银行数量,是我们近期这场大衰退的五倍。1986 年,我从联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)手里买下一座 400 英亩的农场,位于奥马哈以北 50 英里,花了 28 万美元——比几年前某家倒闭银行押在这块地上的贷款额还低不少。我对种地一窍不通,但我有个热爱农活的儿子,从他那里我摸清了这块地能产多少蒲式耳玉米和大豆、运营开支又是多少。据此估算,我算出农场当时的常态化回报率约为 10%。我还料想,随着时间推移,产量很可能提升,作物价格也会走高。两个预期后来都应验了。要断定这笔投资没有下行风险、上行空间却相当可观,我并不需要什么过人的学识或才智。当然,偶尔会有歉收,价格有时也会让人失望,可那又如何?也会有格外丰收的年头,而我从没有非卖这块地不可的压力。如今 28 年过去,农场的盈利翻了两番,价值涨到我当初买价的五倍还不止。我对种地依然一窍不通,最近才第二次去看那块地。

It is fitting to have a Ben Graham quote open this discussion because I owe so much of what I know about investing to him. I will talk more about Ben a bit later, and I will even sooner talk about common stocks. But let me first tell you about two small non-stock investments that I made long ago. Though neither changed my net worth by much, they are instructive. This tale begins in Nebraska. From 1973 to 1981, the Midwest experienced an explosion in farm prices, caused by a widespread belief that runaway inflation was coming and fueled by the lending policies of small rural banks. Then the bubble burst, bringing price declines of 50% or more that devastated both leveraged farmers and their lenders. Five times as many Iowa and Nebraska banks failed in that bubble’s aftermath than in our recent Great Recession. In 1986, I purchased a 400-acre farm, located 50 miles north of Omaha, from the FDIC. It cost me $280,000, considerably less than what a failed bank had lent against the farm a few years earlier. I knew nothing about operating a farm. But I have a son who loves farming and I learned from him both how many bushels of corn and soybeans the farm would produce and what the operating expenses would be. From these estimates, I calculated the normalized return from the farm to then be about 10%. I also thought it was likely that productivity would improve over time and that crop prices would move higher as well. Both expectations proved out. I needed no unusual knowledge or intelligence to conclude that the investment had no downside and potentially had substantial upside. There would, of course, be the occasional bad crop and prices would sometimes disappoint. But so what? There would be some unusually good years as well, and I would never be under any pressure to sell the property. Now, 28 years later, the farm has tripled its earnings and is worth five times or more what I paid. I still know nothing about farming and recently made just my second visit to the farm.

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1993 年,我又做了一笔小投资。我担任所罗门首席执行官时公司的房东拉里·西尔弗斯坦(Larry Silverstein)告诉我,信托清算公司(Resolution Trust Corp.)正在出售纽约大学附近一处零售物业。这又是一次泡沫破裂——这次轮到商业地产——RTC 成立的宗旨,正是处置那些因放贷时过于乐观、最终酿成大祸并倒闭的储蓄机构的资产。这笔账同样很简单。和农场那次一样,这处物业无杠杆下的当期收益率约为 10%。但 RTC 对物业疏于管理,待几间空置店铺租出去后,收入还会增加。更要紧的是,最大的租户——约占项目 20% 的面积——每平方英尺只付约 5 美元租金,而其他租户平均付 70 美元。这份廉价租约九年后到期,届时几乎必然大幅推高盈利。物业的地段也极好:纽约大学不会搬走。我加入了一个小团体——包括拉里和我的朋友弗雷德·罗斯(Fred Rose)——一起买下了这块地。弗雷德是位经验丰富、水准一流的房地产投资人,物业由他和家人一同管理。他们也确实管得好。旧租约陆续到期,盈利翻了两番。如今每年的分配已超过我们原始股本投资的 35%。此外,我们最初的抵押贷款在 1996 年和 1999 年两次再融资,使我们得以进行几次特别分配,合计超过我们投入金额的 150%。这处物业,我至今还没去看过。农场和纽约大学这处地产的收入,在未来几十年里很可能还会增长。涨幅虽不会惊人,但这两笔投资将是稳当且令人满意的资产,足以陪伴我一生,之后还能传给我的子孙。我讲这些故事,是想说明投资的几条基本道理:

In 1993, I made another small investment. Larry Silverstein, Salomon’s landlord when I was the company’s CEO, told me about a New York retail property adjacent to NYU that the Resolution Trust Corp. was selling. Again, a bubble had popped – this one involving commercial real estate – and the RTC had been created to dispose of the assets of failed savings institutions whose optimistic lending practices had fueled the folly. Here, too, the analysis was simple. As had been the case with the farm, the unleveraged current yield from the property was about 10%. But the property had been undermanaged by the RTC, and its income would increase when several vacant stores were leased. Even more important, the largest tenant – who occupied around 20% of the project’s space – was paying rent of about $5 per foot, whereas other tenants averaged $70. The expiration of this bargain lease in nine years was certain to provide a major boost to earnings. The property’s location was also superb: NYU wasn’t going anywhere. I joined a small group, including Larry and my friend Fred Rose, that purchased the parcel. Fred was an experienced, high-grade real estate investor who, with his family, would manage the property. And manage it they did. As old leases expired, earnings tripled. Annual distributions now exceed 35% of our original equity investment. Moreover, our original mortgage was refinanced in 1996 and again in 1999, moves that allowed several special distributions totaling more than 150% of what we had invested. I’ve yet to view the property. Income from both the farm and the NYU real estate will probably increase in the decades to come. Though the gains won’t be dramatic, the two investments will be solid and satisfactory holdings for my lifetime and, subsequently, for my children and grandchildren. I tell these tales to illustrate certain fundamentals of investing: Š

你无需成为专家,也能取得令人满意的投资回报。但若你不是专家,就必须认清自己的局限,并遵循一条大致能行之有效的路径。把事情做简单,别总想着打全垒打。有人向你许诺快速获利,就快速回他一个“不”。

You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick “no.”

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把注意力放在你所考虑的资产未来的生产力上。若你连对它未来盈利做个粗略估算都觉得不踏实,那就干脆忘了它,往前走。没人有能力评估每一种投资机会。但你无需无所不知;你只需要弄懂自己要出手的那些事。

Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering. If you don’t feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset’s future earnings, just forget it and move on. No one has the ability to evaluate every investment possibility. But omniscience isn’t necessary; you only need to understand the actions you undertake.

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反过来,你若盯着一笔拟议中买入的预期价格变动,那就是在投机。投机本身无甚不妥。但我知道自己投机不来,对那些声称能持续投机成功的人,我也心存怀疑。所有抛硬币的人,一半会赢下第一把;但这些赢家若继续玩下去,没有一个能指望盈利。而某项资产近来涨过,从来就不是买入的理由。

If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating. There is nothing improper about that. I know, however, that I am unable to speculate successfully, and I am skeptical of those who claim sustained success at doing so. Half of all coin-flippers will win their first toss; none of those winners has an expectation of profit if he continues to play the game. And the fact that a given asset has appreciated in the recent past is never a reason to buy it.

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做那两笔小投资时,我心里想的只是这些物业能产出什么,全然不在乎它们每天的估值。比赛是靠专注球场的球员赢下的,而不是靠那些眼睛死盯记分牌的人。你要是能在周六周日不看股价照样过得舒坦,不妨也试着在工作日这么做。

With my two small investments, I thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations. Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. If you can enjoy Saturdays and Sundays without looking at stock prices, give it a try on weekdays.

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形成宏观判断,或是听信别人的宏观或市场预测,都是在浪费时间。事实上,这还很危险,因为它可能模糊你的视线,让你看不清那些至关重要的事实。(每当我听到电视评论员油腔滑调地评说市场下一步会怎样,我就想起米奇·曼特尔(Mickey Mantle)那句尖刻的话:“你不进那个转播间,就不知道这游戏有多简单。”)

Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important. (When I hear TV commentators glibly opine on what the market will do next, I am reminded of Mickey Mantle’s scathing comment: “You don’t know how easy this game is until you get into that broadcasting booth.”)

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我那两笔买入分别发生在 1986 年和 1993 年。至于紧随其后的年份——1987 年和 1994 年——经济、利率或股市会怎么走,我做这两笔投资时根本没放在心上。我已记不清当时的头条和权威人士说了些什么。不管外头怎么喧嚣,内布拉斯加的玉米照样会长,学生照样会涌向纽约大学。

My two purchases were made in 1986 and 1993. What the economy, interest rates, or the stock market might do in the years immediately following – 1987 and 1994 – was of no importance to me in making those investments. I can’t remember what the headlines or pundits were saying at the time. Whatever the chatter, corn would keep growing in Nebraska and students would flock to NYU.

我这两笔小投资和股票投资之间有一个重大区别。股票时时刻刻给你的持仓提供估值,而我的农场也好、纽约那处地产也罢,至今都没见过一份报价。持仓被贴上这些剧烈波动的估值,对股票投资者本该是巨大的优势——对某些投资者来说也确实如此。毕竟,如果一个喜怒无常的人农场紧挨着我的地,每天都朝我喊一个价,说他要么买下我的地、要么把他的卖给我——而这价格又随他的心情在短时间里大起大落——我怎么可能不从他这反复无常的行为中受益呢?如果他每天喊的价低得离谱,我手头又有闲钱,我就会买下他的地。如果他喊的是高得荒唐的数,我可以卖给他,也可以只管接着种我的地。然而,股票的持有者却常常任由其他股东任性、且常常不理性的举动,把自己也带得跟着不理性起来。正因为关于市场、经济、利率、股价走势的议论铺天盖地,一些投资者便认定听信权威人士很重要——更糟的是,还认定照他们的言论行动很重要。那些手握农场或公寓楼时能安座几十年的人,一旦置身于接连不断的股票报价和评论员 “别干坐着,得做点什么” 的潜台词之下,往往就变得焦躁不安。对这些投资者而言,流动性从原本无可争辩的好处变成了诅咒。一场“闪电崩盘”或别的极端市场波动,伤不了投资者分毫,就像一个反复无常、聒噪不休的邻居伤不了我的农场投资。事实上,如果投资者在价格严重偏离价值时手头有现金,暴跌的市场反而对他们有利。投资时,恐惧的氛围是你的朋友;一片欢腾的世界才是你的敌人。在 2008 年底那场非同寻常的金融恐慌中,尽管一场严重衰退显然正在酝酿,我从未动过卖掉农场或纽约地产的念头。而且,如果我 100% 拥有一家稳健的、拥有良好长期前景的企业,我连考虑抛售它都是愚蠢的。那么,我又何必卖掉我持有的股票——那些优秀的企业的部分所有权呢?没错,其中任何一家最终都可能令人失望,但作为一个整体,它们必定会表现不俗。难道真有人相信,美国那不可思议的生产性资产和无尽的人类智慧,会被大地一口吞没吗?

There is one major difference between my two small investments and an investment in stocks. Stocks provide you minute-to-minute valuations for your holdings whereas I have yet to see a quotation for either my farm or the New York real estate. It should be an enormous advantage for investors in stocks to have those wildly fluctuating valuations placed on their holdings – and for some investors, it is. After all, if a moody fellow with a farm bordering my property yelled out a price every day to me at which he would either buy my farm or sell me his – and those prices varied widely over short periods of time depending on his mental state – how in the world could I be other than benefited by his erratic behavior? If his daily shout-out was ridiculously low, and I had some spare cash, I would buy his farm. If the number he yelled was absurdly high, I could either sell to him or just go on farming. Owners of stocks, however, too often let the capricious and often irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well. Because there is so much chatter about markets, the economy, interest rates, price behavior of stocks, etc., some investors believe it is important to listen to pundits – and, worse yet, important to consider acting upon their comments. Those people who can sit quietly for decades when they own a farm or apartment house too often become frenetic when they are exposed to a stream of stock quotations and accompanying commentators delivering an implied message of “Don’t just sit there, do something.” For these investors, liquidity is transformed from the unqualified benefit it should be to a curse. A “flash crash” or some other extreme market fluctuation can’t hurt an investor any more than an erratic and mouthy neighbor can hurt my farm investment. Indeed, tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values. A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy. During the extraordinary financial panic that occurred late in 2008, I never gave a thought to selling my farm or New York real estate, even though a severe recession was clearly brewing. And, if I had owned 100% of a solid business with good long-term prospects, it would have been foolish for me to even consider dumping it. So why would I have sold my stocks that were small participations in wonderful businesses? True, any one of them might eventually disappoint, but as a group they were certain to do well. Could anyone really believe the earth was going to swallow up the incredible productive assets and unlimited human ingenuity existing in America?

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当查理和我买股票时——我们把股票看作企业的一小部分——我们的分析与我们收购整家企业时所用的方法非常相似。我们首先得判断,我们能否合理估出该企业未来五年乃至更长的盈利区间。如果答案是肯定的,只要它的出售价格相对于我们预估的区间底部合理,我们就会买入这只股票(或这家企业)。如果,我们缺乏估计未来盈利的能力——通常正是如此——我们便会直接转向其他机会。在我们共事的 54 年里,我们从未因为宏观环境、政治环境或是他人的看法,而放弃一笔有吸引力的购买。事实上,我们在做决策时,这些话题连提都不会提到。然而,至关重要的一点是,我们必须认清自己“能力圈”的边界,并稳稳地待在圈内。即便如此,无论是股票还是企业,我们还是会犯错。但这些错误不会酿成灾难,那种灾难,往往出现在,比方说,一个持续上涨的市场诱使投资者基于对价格走势的预期、以及想要待在有动静的地方的欲望而出手买入的时候。

When Charlie and I buy stocks – which we think of as small portions of businesses – our analysis is very similar to that which we use in buying entire businesses. We first have to decide whether we can sensibly estimate an earnings range for five years out, or more. If the answer is yes, we will buy the stock (or business) if it sells at a reasonable price in relation to the bottom boundary of our estimate. If, however, we lack the ability to estimate future earnings – which is usually the case – we simply move on to other prospects. In the 54 years we have worked together, we have never foregone an attractive purchase because of the macro or political environment, or the views of other people. In fact, these subjects never come up when we make decisions. It’s vital, however, that we recognize the perimeter of our “circle of competence” and stay well inside of it. Even then, we will make some mistakes, both with stocks and businesses. But they will not be the disasters that occur, for example, when a long-rising market induces purchases that are based on anticipated price behavior and a desire to be where the action is.

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当然,多数投资者并没有把研究企业前景当作人生优先事项。如果他们够明智,就会得出结论:自己对具体企业了解得不够,不足以预判它们未来的盈利能力。我给这些非专业人士带来一个好消息:普通投资者并不需要这种本事。总体而言,美国企业长期以来表现极佳,往后也会如此(尽管,几乎可以肯定,是以难以预料、时断时续的方式)。在 20 世纪,道琼斯工业指数从 66 点涨到 11,497 点,在此之上还派发着逐年递增的股息。21 世纪将迎来进一步上涨,且几乎肯定涨幅可观。非专业人士的目标不该是挑选赢家——他本人和他的“帮手”都做不到——而应该是持有一个横跨各行业、整体上必将表现良好的组合。一只低成本的标普 500 指数基金就能实现这个目标。这是非专业人士该“买什么”。而“何时买”同样重要。主要风险在于,胆怯或刚入门的投资者会在市场极度亢奋时入场,随后一见到账面亏损便心灰意冷。(记住已故的巴顿·比格斯那句话:“牛市就像做爱。快结束时感觉最美妙。”)化解这种择时错误的方法,是投资者在长年累月里慢慢积累股票,并且绝不在消息糟糕、股价远低于高点时卖出。守住这些规则,那位既分散持仓、又把成本压到最低的“一无所知”的投资者,几乎肯定能获得满意的结果。事实上,一个实事求是看待自身短处的外行投资者,长期回报大概率会胜过那位学识渊博、却对自己哪怕一个弱点都视而不见的专业人士。倘若“投资者”在彼此之间疯狂买进卖出农田,作物的产量和价格都不会因此提高。这种行为的唯一后果,是农场主群体因四处寻求建议和频繁换手而背上了高昂成本,总收益反倒下降了。尽管如此,个人和机构还是会不断受到怂恿去频繁操作,怂恿者正是那些靠提供建议或撮合交易牟利的人。由此产生的摩擦成本可能大得惊人,且对投资者整体而言毫无益处。因此,别理会那些嘈杂,把成本压到最低,像投资一座农场那样去投资股票。我还得补充一点:我说到做到——我在这里给出的建议,本质上与我在遗嘱中写下的某些指令一模一样。其中一项遗赠规定,将现金交给一位受托人,为我妻子打理。(个人遗赠部分我只能用现金,因为我名下所有伯克希尔股份,将在我遗产结算完毕后十年内,全部分配给若干慈善组织。)我给受托人的嘱咐再简单不过:把 10% 的现金投入短期政府债券,90% 投入一只成本极低的标普 500 指数基金。(我建议先锋集团的。)我相信,这一策略带给该信托的长期业绩,将胜过大多数聘用高收费管理人的投资者——无论是养老基金、机构还是个人。

Most investors, of course, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise, they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power. I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal. That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better longterm results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness. If “investors” frenetically bought and sold farmland to each other, neither the yields nor prices of their crops would be increased. The only consequence of such behavior would be decreases in the overall earnings realized by the farm-owning population because of the substantial costs it would incur as it sought advice and switched properties. Nevertheless, both individuals and institutions will constantly be urged to be active by those who profit from giving advice or effecting transactions. The resulting frictional costs can be huge and, for investors in aggregate, devoid of benefit. So ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm. My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers.

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现在再说回本·格雷厄姆。本次投资讨论中的多数想法,我都是从本那本《聪明的投资者》学来的,那本书是我在 1949 年买下的。那一买,改写了我整个财务生涯。读到本这本书之前,我在投资世界里到处漫游,凡是有关这个主题的书都贪婪吞下。读到的东西很多都让我着迷:我试过画图表,也试过用市场指标预测股价走势。我坐在券商营业部里,盯着行情纸带滚动,听评论员侃侃而谈。这一切都很有趣,但我始终甩不掉一种一无所成的感觉。相比之下,本用优雅易懂的文字(没有希腊字母,也没有复杂公式),把想法讲得条理清晰。对我来说,最关键的要点,就写在后来版本编为第 8 章和第 20 章的内容里。(1949 年初版的章节编号与此不同。)这些要点至今仍在指引我的投资决策。

And now back to Ben Graham. I learned most of the thoughts in this investment discussion from Ben’s book The Intelligent Investor, which I bought in 1949. My financial life changed with that purchase. Before reading Ben’s book, I had wandered around the investing landscape, devouring everything written on the subject. Much of what I read fascinated me: I tried my hand at charting and at using market indicia to predict stock movements. I sat in brokerage offices watching the tape roll by, and I listened to commentators. All of this was fun, but I couldn’t shake the feeling that I wasn’t getting anywhere. In contrast, Ben’s ideas were explained logically in elegant, easy-to-understand prose (without Greek letters or complicated formulas). For me, the key points were laid out in what later editions labeled Chapters 8 and 20. (The original 1949 edition numbered its chapters differently.) These points guide my investing decisions today.

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关于这本书,还有几段有趣的插曲:后来的版本添了一篇后记,描述了一笔未具名的投资,这笔投资给本带来了意外之喜。本是 1948 年、也就是他撰写初版时买下的——坐稳了——这家神秘公司正是 GEICO。如果本没能在 GEICO 尚处初创阶段时就认出它的过人特质,我和伯克希尔的未来都将会截然不同。1949 年版的该书还推荐了一只铁路股,当时股价 17 美元,每股盈利约 10 美元。(我敬佩本的原因之一,就是他敢于拿当下的实例来说明问题,一旦失手就会遭人嘲笑。)这家公司估值偏低,部分原因是当时一条会计规则要求铁路公司把来自联营公司的大额留存收益排除在报告利润之外。推荐的这只股票是北太平洋铁路公司,其最重要的联营公司是芝加哥-伯灵顿-昆西铁路。这些铁路如今都是 BNSF(伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路)的重要组成部分,而 BNSF 今天已由伯克希尔全资拥有。我读那本书时,北太平洋铁路的市值约 4000 万美元。如今它的后继者(当然,一路添置了大量资产)每四天就能赚到这个数。我已记不清买下《聪明的投资者》第一版花了多少钱。不管多少,它都印证了本那句箴言:价格是你付出的,价值是你得到的。在我做过的所有投资中,买本那本书是最划算的一笔(我买过两次结婚证除外)。

A couple of interesting sidelights about the book: Later editions included a postscript describing an unnamed investment that was a bonanza for Ben. Ben made the purchase in 1948 when he was writing the first edition and – brace yourself – the mystery company was GEICO. If Ben had not recognized the special qualities of GEICO when it was still in its infancy, my future and Berkshire’s would have been far different. The 1949 edition of the book also recommended a railroad stock that was then selling for $17 and earning about $10 per share. (One of the reasons I admired Ben was that he had the guts to use current examples, leaving himself open to sneers if he stumbled.) In part, that low valuation resulted from an accounting rule of the time that required the railroad to exclude from its reported earnings the substantial retained earnings of affiliates. The recommended stock was Northern Pacific, and its most important affiliate was Chicago, Burlington and Quincy. These railroads are now important parts of BNSF (Burlington Northern Santa Fe), which is today fully owned by Berkshire. When I read the book, Northern Pacific had a market value of about $40 million. Now its successor (having added a great many properties, to be sure) earns that amount every four days. I can’t remember what I paid for that first copy of The Intelligent Investor. Whatever the cost, it would underscore the truth of Ben’s adage: Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Of all the investments I ever made, buying Ben’s book was the best (except for my purchase of two marriage licenses).

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地方和州政府的财政问题正在加速恶化,很大一部分原因是公共机构承诺了自己根本负担不起的养老金。当承诺与花钱兑现的意愿相冲突时,一条巨大的财务绦虫便就此诞生,而公民和公职人员通常都严重低估了它。遗憾的是,对多数美国人来说,养老金背后的数学至今仍是一团迷雾。投资政策在这些问题里也扮演着重要角色。1975 年,我给时任《华盛顿邮报》公司董事长的凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆写过一份备忘录,谈养老金承诺的陷阱以及投资政策的重要性。这份备忘录重印在第 118 至 136 页。在未来十年里,你会读到大量关于公共养老金计划的新闻——都是坏消息。我希望我这份备忘录,能帮助你理解:在问题存在的地方,为什么要立即采取补救措施。

Local and state financial problems are accelerating, in large part because public entities promised pensions they couldn’t afford. Citizens and public officials typically under-appreciated the gigantic financial tapeworm that was born when promises were made that conflicted with a willingness to fund them. Unfortunately, pension mathematics today remain a mystery to most Americans. Investment policies, as well, play an important role in these problems. In 1975, I wrote a memo to Katharine Graham, then chairman of The Washington Post Company, about the pitfalls of pension promises and the importance of investment policy. That memo is reproduced on pages 118 - 136. During the next decade, you will read a lot of news – bad news – about public pension plans. I hope my memo is helpful to you in understanding the necessity for prompt remedial action where problems exist.

股东大会

The Annual Meeting

股东大会将于 5 月 3 日(周六)在世纪互联中心(CenturyLink Center)举行。我们的“大总管”卡丽·索娃才华出众,将由她主持,总部全体人员都会帮她一起张罗。我们这帮人干起活来,比专业活动策划公司还要好,而且——没错——还替我们省了钱。世纪互联中心的入场门将在早上 7 点打开,7 点 30 分我们将举行第三届国际掷报纸大赛。靶子是一座克莱顿住宅的门廊,离投掷线恰好 35 英尺。我十几岁时大概投递过 50 万份报纸,所以自认为水平不错。来向我发起挑战吧:凡能把报纸扔得比我更靠近门阶的,我就请他或她吃一支 Dilly Bar。报纸为 36 页到 42 页,你必须自己折好(不许用橡皮筋)。8 点 30 分,将放映一部新的伯克希尔影片。一小时后,问答环节开始,一直持续到下午 3 点 30 分(中间有一段在世纪互联中心各摊位午餐的休息时间)。短暂休会后,查理和我将于 3 点 45 分召开正式股东大会。如果你决定在白天的问答环节中途离场,请趁查理讲话时离开。

The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 3rd at the CenturyLink Center. Carrie Sova, our talented ringmaster, will be in charge, and all of our headquarters group will pitch in to help her. Our gang both does a better job than professional event planners would and – yes – saves us money. CenturyLink’s doors will open at 7 a.m., and at 7:30 we will have our third International Newspaper Tossing Challenge. Our target will be a Clayton Home porch, precisely 35 feet from the throwing line. I tossed about 500,000 papers when I was a teenager, so I think I’m pretty good. Challenge me: I’ll buy a Dilly Bar for anyone who lands his or her throw closer to the doorstep than I do. The papers will be 36 to 42 pages, and you must fold them yourself (no rubber bands allowed). At 8:30, a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking.

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当然,离场最好的理由是去购物。为了给你行方便,我们会把紧挨会场的那座 19.43 万平方英尺的大厅,摆满数十家伯克希尔子公司的产品。去年你们很给力,多数展位都创下了销售纪录。九个小时里,我们卖出 1,062 双贾斯汀靴(平均每 32 秒一双)、12,792 磅喜诗糖果、11,162 把 Quikut 刀(每分钟 21 把),还有 6,344 双 Wells Lamont 手套——这向来是抢手货。今年,我和查理会各自摆出印着自己头像的番茄酱瓶叫卖。当然,印查理照片那款会打大大的折扣。但只要你们帮衬,我这瓶的销量准能压过他。这事很重要,可别让我失望。我们的跑鞋公司 Brooks 又将在大会上推出一款特别纪念鞋。买了以后,第二天早上 8 点穿着它,来参加我们第二届“伯克希尔 5 公里”长跑,起点就在 CenturyLink。参赛的详细办法,会写进随门票一同寄给你的《访客指南》里。跑起来你会发现,身边有许多伯克希尔的经理、董事和同事。GEICO 将在购物区设一个展位,由全国各地调来的一批顶尖顾问坐镇。过去要个报价吧——多数情况下,GEICO 都能给你一个股东折扣(通常是 8%)。我们经营所及的 51 个辖区里,有 44 个允许这项特别优惠。(补一句:若你本就够格享受别的折扣,比如某些团体优惠,这项折扣不叠加。)带上你现有保单的资料,看看我们能不能替你省钱。我相信,你们中至少有一半人是能省下来的。别忘了逛逛“书虫”书摊,那里会摆出约 35 种图书和 DVD,其中有几本新作。一本是马克斯·奥尔森汇编的伯克希尔致股东信,一路收到 1965 年,书里那份索引我觉得特别好用,按个人、公司和主题标出了页码。我还推荐我儿子霍华德写的《四十次机会》,你会喜欢的。你若是个大手笔——或者立志要成为大手笔——周六中午到下午 5 点,不妨去奥马哈机场东侧的 Signature Flight Support 走一趟。那里我们会摆出一队 NetJets 飞机,保管让你心跳加速。坐大巴来,坐私人飞机走,人生偶尔也该潇洒一回。随本报告附上的委托材料里,有一份附件说明你该如何领取参会及各项活动所需的凭证。航空公司有时会趁伯克希尔周末抬高票价。你若从远方赶来,不妨比一比飞堪萨斯城和飞奥马哈的花费。两城之间车程约两个半小时,飞堪萨斯城或许能替你省下不少钱,尤其是你本打算在奥马哈租车的话。省下的钱,就花在我们这儿吧。内布拉斯加家具城坐落在 72 街、道奇街与太平洋街之间那块 77 英亩的地上,我们将再度推出“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。去年大会前后那一周,该店营业额达 4,020 万美元,把此前纪录抬高了 12%;周六单日更创下 820 万美元的纪录,光床垫就卖了近 100 万美元。要在家具城拿到伯克希尔折扣,你得在 4 月 29 日星期二到 5 月 5 日星期一之间(含首尾两天)购物,并出示参会凭证。这段时间的特价,甚至适用于几家素来对打折有铁律、却本着股东周末的情谊为你破例的名牌厂商——我们感谢他们的配合。家具城营业时间为周一至周六上午 10 点到晚上 9 点,周日上午 10 点到下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5 点半到 8 点,家具城还办野餐会,诚邀各位光临。在 Borsheims,我们将再度举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是 5 月 2 日星期五晚上 6 点到 9 点的鸡尾酒会。第二场是主庆典,于 5 月 4 日星期日上午 9 点到下午 4 点举行。周六我们营业到下午 6 点。近年来,我们三天的销售额已远超整个 12 月——而 12 月通常是珠宝商的黄金月份。

The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We’ll assist you by filling the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period, we sold 1,062 pairs of Justin boots (that’s a pair every 32 seconds), 12,792 pounds of See’s candy, 11,162 Quikut knives (21 knives per minute) and 6,344 pairs of Wells Lamont gloves, always a hot item. This year, Charlie and I will have competing ketchup bottles for sale. Naturally, the one with Charlie’s picture will be heavily discounted. But, if you help, my bottle will outsell his. This is important, so don’t let me down. Brooks, our running-shoe company, will again have a special commemorative shoe to offer at the meeting. After you purchase a pair, wear them the next day at our second annual “Berkshire 5K,” an 8 a.m. race starting at the CenturyLink. Full details for participating will be included in the Visitor’s Guide that you will receive with your tickets for the meeting. Entrants will find themselves running alongside many of Berkshire’s managers, directors and associates. GEICO will have a booth in the shopping area, staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country. Stop by for a quote. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least half of you, I believe we can. Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry about 35 books and DVDs, among them a couple of new titles. One is Max Olson’s compilation of Berkshire letters going back to 1965. The book includes an index that I find particularly useful, specifying page numbers for individuals, companies and subject matter. I also recommend Forty Chances by my son, Howard. You’ll enjoy it. If you are a big spender – or aspire to become one – visit Signature Flight Support on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5 p.m. on Saturday. There, we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft sure to set your pulse racing. Come by bus; leave by private jet. Live a little. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City versus Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2 1⁄ 2 hours, and it may be that Kansas City can save you significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. Spend the savings with us. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year in the week surrounding the meeting, the store did $40.2 million of business, breaking its previous record by 12%. It also set a single day record of $8.2 million on Saturday, selling nearly $1 million of mattresses alone. To obtain the Berkshire discount at NFM, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, April 29th and Monday, May 5th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited. At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, May 2nd. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 4th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. In recent years, our three-day volume has far exceeded sales in all of December, normally a jeweler’s best month.

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周日下午 1 点 15 分左右,我会开始在博尔斯海姆珠宝(Borsheims)“站柜台”。你挑中任何一件商品,只管来问我要“疯狂沃伦”的报价。随着我年纪越来越大,我开的价格也越来越离谱。快来占我便宜吧。整个周末,博尔斯海姆都会人山人海。因此,为方便大家,股东特惠价将从 4 月 28 日(周一)持续至 5 月 10 日(周六)。在此期间,请出示你的参会凭证或一份显示你为伯克希尔股东的券商对账单,以此表明你的股东身份。周日,在博尔斯海姆店外的商场里,蒙着双眼的两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫(Patrick Wolff)将同时迎战六位睁大双眼的挑战者。在附近,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克(Norman Beck)将让围观者眼花缭乱。此外,我们还将邀请两位世界顶尖桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼(Bob Hamman)和莎伦·奥斯伯格(Sharon Osberg)在周日下午与股东们切磋牌技。别跟他们赌钱。我的朋友邢延华(Ariel Hsing)周日也将在商场里接受乒乓球挑战。去年,她在奥运会上的表现让美国人——尤其是我——引以为傲。我认识邢延华时她只有九岁,那时我就已经一分都赢不了她了。如今,她是普林斯顿大学的新生,也是美国女子乒乓球冠军。如果你不介意让自己出出丑,可以从下午 1 点开始,和她比试一下球技。比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)和我会先上场,试着消耗一下她的体力。Gorat's 和 Piccolo's 两家餐厅将于 5 月 4 日(周日)再次专为伯克希尔股东开放。两家都将营业至晚上 10 点,其中 Gorat's 下午 1 点开门,Piccolo's 下午 4 点开门。这两家都是我的至爱,周日晚上我两家都会去吃。切记:预订 Gorat's 请在 4 月 1 日(别提前)致电 402-551-3733,预订 Piccolo's 请致电 402-342-9038。在 Piccolo's,甜点记得点一份超大杯的根汁汽水冰淇淋。只有胆小鬼才点小杯的。今年,我们仍将请同样的三位财经记者主持股东大会的问答环节,由他们向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交的问题。这三位记者及其邮箱地址是:《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis),邮箱 [email protected];CNBC 的贝基·奎克(Becky Quick),邮箱 [email protected];以及《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金(Andrew Ross Sorkin),邮箱 [email protected]。每位记者将从所收到的问题中,各自选出他们认为最有趣和最重要的六个问题。记者们告诉我,如果你的问题表述简洁、避免在最后一刻才提交、内容与伯克希尔相关,并且在任何一封发送给他们的邮件中包含不超过两个问题,你的问题就最有可能被选中。(在邮件中,请告知记者你是否希望在问题被选中时提及你的名字。)我们还将设立一个由三位跟踪研究伯克希尔的分析师组成的专家小组。今年,保险业务专家是巴克莱银行的杰伊·格尔布(Jay Gelb)。涉及非保险业务的问题将由鲁安·坎尼夫·戈德法布公司(Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb)的乔纳森·布兰特(Jonathan Brandt)提出。我们将再次邀请一位持证看空伯克希尔的分析师。我们欢迎做空伯克希尔的申请人来信(请附上你的持仓证明)。三位分析师将提出他们自己专为伯克希尔准备的问题,并与记者和现场观众轮流提问。查理和我认为,所有股东都应能同时获取伯克希尔的新信息,并拥有充足的时间进行分析。这就是我们总是尽量在周五晚间或周六凌晨发布财务信息,以及将年度股东大会安排在周六举行的原因。我们不会与大型机构投资者或分析师进行一对一交谈,而是对所有股东一视同仁。我们希望记者和分析师提出的问题,能进一步帮助我们的股东了解他们自己的投资。

About 1:15 p.m. on Sunday, I will begin clerking at Borsheims. Ask for my “Crazy Warren” quote on the item of your choice. As I get older, my pricing gets ever more ridiculous. Come take advantage of me. We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 28th through Saturday, May 10th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder. On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Don’t play them for money. My friend, Ariel Hsing, will be in the mall as well on Sunday, taking on challengers at table tennis. Last year, she made Americans – and especially me – proud with her performance at the Olympics. I met Ariel when she was nine and even then I was unable to score a point against her. Now, she’s a freshman at Princeton and the U.S. Women’s Champion. If you don’t mind embarrassing yourself, test your skills against her, beginning at 1 p.m. Bill Gates and I will lead off and try to soften her up. Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 4th. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites, and I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and for Piccolo’s call 402-342-9038. At Piccolo’s order a giant root beer float for dessert. Only sissies get the small one. We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be e-mailed at [email protected]; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at [email protected]; and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at [email protected]. From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the six he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them. (In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.) We will also have a panel of three analysts who follow Berkshire. This year the insurance specialist will be Jay Gelb of Barclays. Questions that deal with our non-insurance operations will come from Jonathan Brandt of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb. And we will again have a credentialed bear on Berkshire. We would like to hear from applicants who are short Berkshire (please include evidence of your position). The three analysts will bring their own Berkshirespecific questions and alternate with the journalists and the audience in asking them. Charlie and I believe that all shareholders should have access to new Berkshire information simultaneously and should also have adequate time to analyze it. That’s why we try to issue financial information late on Fridays or early on Saturdays and why our annual meeting is held on Saturdays. We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts, but rather treat all shareholders the same. Our hope is that the journalists and analysts will ask questions that further educate our owners about their investment.

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查理和我都不会对将要被问到的问题得到哪怕一丝一毫的风声。我们知道记者和分析师会抛出一些尖锐的问题,而这正是我们所乐见的。全部加起来,我们预计至少会有 54 个问题,这样每位分析师和记者各可提出 6 个问题,现场观众可提出 18 个问题。如果还有富余时间,我们会再从观众中多接一些问题。现场提问者将在早上 8:15 通过抽签决定,抽签地点设在主场馆和主转播厅内的共 15 个话筒处。

Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists and analysts will come up with some tough ones, and that’s the way we like it. All told, we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and 18 from the audience. If there is some extra time, we will take more from the audience. Audience questioners will be determined by drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. at each of the 15 microphones located in the arena and main overflow room.

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我时常称颂旗下经理人的成就,这是有充分理由的。他们个个都是名副其实的全明星,经营自己的企业时,那股劲头就像那是他们家族名下唯一的资产。我相信,在大型上市公司这个群体里,我们经理人那种以股东为本位的心态,放眼望去无出其右。他们多数人并无财务上的工作必要;打出商业“本垒打”的快乐,对他们而言,与薪水一样重要。然而同等重要的是,与我一起在公司总部共事的那 24 位男女同事。这支团队高效应对着美国证券交易委员会(SEC)及其他监管机构的一大堆要求,报送一份 23,000 页的联邦所得税申报表,以及各州和海外申报表,回复数不清的股东与媒体问询,赶制年报,筹办全美规模最大的股东大会,协调董事会各项事务——这份清单还长得很。所有这些事务,他们都办得欢欢喜喜,效率高得令人难以置信,让我的日子过得又轻松又愉快。他们的付出还不止于与伯克希尔直接相关的工作:去年,他们张罗了 40 所大学(从 200 个申请者中选出)派学生来奥马哈与我共度一天的问答活动;他们还处理我收到的形形色色的请求,安排我的行程,甚至替我把午饭买来——汉堡包和炸薯条(当然,浇满了番茄酱)。没有哪位首席执行官日子比我更舒坦;我确实是觉得,每天都可以踏着踢踏舞步去上班。收笔之际,我想,破一破我们“不拍照”的规矩,让你们看看我们这支了不起的总部团队,是恰逢其时的。下面这张照片,拍的是我们的圣诞午餐。有两位同事没能到场;除此之外,照片里就是伯克希尔总部的全体工作人员。他们确确实实是一群创造奇迹的人。明年的信,将回顾我们在伯克希尔的 50 年,并对下一个 50 年略作展望。在此之间,5 月 3 日,请来奥马哈,尽享我们这场“资本家的伍德斯托克”。

For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly AllStars, who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I believe the mindset of our managers to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most have no financial need to work; the joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck. Equally important, however, are the 24 men and women who work with me at our corporate office. This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements, files a 23,000-page Federal income tax return as well as state and foreign returns, responds to countless shareholder and media inquiries, gets out the annual report, prepares for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinates the Board’s activities – and the list goes on and on. They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: Last year they dealt with the 40 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who sent students to Omaha for a Q&A day with me. They also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers and French fries (smothered in ketchup, of course) for lunch. No CEO has it better; I truly do feel like tap dancing to work every day. In closing, I think it’s become appropriate to ignore our “no pictures” policy and let you view our remarkable home-office crew. Below is a photo from our Christmas lunch. Two people couldn’t make it; otherwise you are looking at all of those who staff Berkshire’s headquarters. They are truly miracle-workers. Next year’s letter will review our 50 years at Berkshire and speculate a bit about the next 50. In the meantime, come to Omaha on May 3rd and enjoy our Woodstock for Capitalists.

2014 年 2 月 28 日

February 28, 2014

沃伦·E·巴菲特

董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

一顿伯克希尔风格的能量午餐 24

A power lunch, Berkshire-style 24