2015 年致股东信
伯克希尔业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数
Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500
| 年度 | 伯克希尔每股账面价值变动 | 伯克希尔每股市场价值的年度百分比变化 | 标普500指数含股息变动 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1965 | 23.8 | 49.5 | 10.0 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (3.4) | (11.7) |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 30.9 |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 77.8 | 11.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | 19.4 | (8.4) |
| 1970 | 12.0 | (4.6) | 3.9 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 80.5 | 14.6 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 8.1 | 18.9 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (2.5) | (14.8) |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (48.7) | (26.4) |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 2.5 | 37.2 |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 129.3 | 23.6 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | 46.8 | (7.4) |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 14.5 | 6.4 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 102.5 | 18.2 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.8 | 32.3 |
| 1981 | 31.4 | 31.8 | (5.0) |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 38.4 | 21.4 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 69.0 | 22.4 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | (2.7) | 6.1 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 93.7 | 31.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 14.2 | 18.6 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 59.3 | 16.6 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 84.6 | 31.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (23.1) | (3.1) |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 30.5 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 29.8 | 7.6 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 38.9 | 10.1 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 25.0 | 1.3 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 57.4 | 37.6 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 6.2 | 23.0 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 34.9 | 33.4 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 52.2 | 28.6 |
| 1999 | 0.5 | (19.9) | 21.0 |
| 2000 | 6.5 | 26.6 | (9.1) |
| 2001 | (6.2) | 6.5 | (11.9) |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (3.8) | (22.1) |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 15.8 | 28.7 |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 10.9 |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 24.1 | 15.8 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 28.7 | 5.5 |
| 2008 | (9.6) | (31.8) | (37.0) |
| 2009 | 19.8 | 2.7 | 26.5 |
| 2010 | 13.0 | 21.4 | 15.1 |
| 2011 | 4.6 | (4.7) | 2.1 |
| 2012 | 14.4 | 16.8 | 16.0 |
| 2013 | 18.2 | 32.7 | 32.4 |
| 2014 | 8.3 | 27.0 | 13.7 |
| 2015 | 6.4 | (12.5) | 1.4 |
| 复合年化收益率 – 1965-2015 | 19.2% | 20.8% | 9.7% |
| 整体收益——1964-2015 | 798,981% | 1,598,284% | 11,355% |
| Year | in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire | Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshire | in S&P 500 with Dividends Included |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1965 | 23.8 | 49.5 | 10.0 |
| 1966 | 20.3 | (3.4) | (11.7) |
| 1967 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 30.9 |
| 1968 | 19.0 | 77.8 | 11.0 |
| 1969 | 16.2 | 19.4 | (8.4) |
| 1970 | 12.0 | (4.6) | 3.9 |
| 1971 | 16.4 | 80.5 | 14.6 |
| 1972 | 21.7 | 8.1 | 18.9 |
| 1973 | 4.7 | (2.5) | (14.8) |
| 1974 | 5.5 | (48.7) | (26.4) |
| 1975 | 21.9 | 2.5 | 37.2 |
| 1976 | 59.3 | 129.3 | 23.6 |
| 1977 | 31.9 | 46.8 | (7.4) |
| 1978 | 24.0 | 14.5 | 6.4 |
| 1979 | 35.7 | 102.5 | 18.2 |
| 1980 | 19.3 | 32.8 | 32.3 |
| 1981 | 31.4 | 31.8 | (5.0) |
| 1982 | 40.0 | 38.4 | 21.4 |
| 1983 | 32.3 | 69.0 | 22.4 |
| 1984 | 13.6 | (2.7) | 6.1 |
| 1985 | 48.2 | 93.7 | 31.6 |
| 1986 | 26.1 | 14.2 | 18.6 |
| 1987 | 19.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| 1988 | 20.1 | 59.3 | 16.6 |
| 1989 | 44.4 | 84.6 | 31.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | (23.1) | (3.1) |
| 1991 | 39.6 | 35.6 | 30.5 |
| 1992 | 20.3 | 29.8 | 7.6 |
| 1993 | 14.3 | 38.9 | 10.1 |
| 1994 | 13.9 | 25.0 | 1.3 |
| 1995 | 43.1 | 57.4 | 37.6 |
| 1996 | 31.8 | 6.2 | 23.0 |
| 1997 | 34.1 | 34.9 | 33.4 |
| 1998 | 48.3 | 52.2 | 28.6 |
| 1999 | 0.5 | (19.9) | 21.0 |
| 2000 | 6.5 | 26.6 | (9.1) |
| 2001 | (6.2) | 6.5 | (11.9) |
| 2002 | 10.0 | (3.8) | (22.1) |
| 2003 | 21.0 | 15.8 | 28.7 |
| 2004 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 10.9 |
| 2005 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 18.4 | 24.1 | 15.8 |
| 2007 | 11.0 | 28.7 | 5.5 |
| 2008 | (9.6) | (31.8) | (37.0) |
| 2009 | 19.8 | 2.7 | 26.5 |
| 2010 | 13.0 | 21.4 | 15.1 |
| 2011 | 4.6 | (4.7) | 2.1 |
| 2012 | 14.4 | 16.8 | 16.0 |
| 2013 | 18.2 | 32.7 | 32.4 |
| 2014 | 8.3 | 27.0 | 13.7 |
| 2015 | 6.4 | (12.5) | 1.4 |
| Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2015 | 19.2% | 20.8% | 9.7% |
| Overall Gain – 1964-2015 | 798,981% | 1,598,284% | 11,355% |
19.2% 798,981% 20.8% 1,598,284% 9.7% 11,355%
19.2% 798,981% 20.8% 1,598,284% 9.7% 11,355%
注:数据均按日历年统计,但有以下例外:1965 年和 1966 年为截至 9 月 30 日的年度;1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。自 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司将所持权益证券按市价估值,不再沿用此前成本与市价孰低的要求。本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年及之前的业绩已按变更后的规则重述;其余所有方面均按最初报告的数字计算。标普 500 指数数据为税前,伯克希尔数据为税后。如果一家像伯克希尔这样的公司仅仅是持有标普 500 指数并按相应税项计提,那么当该指数录得正回报时,其业绩会落后于标普 500 指数;当该指数录得负回报时,其业绩则会超过标普 500 指数。年复一年,税收成本会导致累计落后幅度相当可观。
Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
2015 年伯克希尔净资产增长 154 亿美元,A 类股和 B 类股每股账面价值均增长 6.4%。过去 51 年间(即现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增至 155,501 美元,年复合增长率为 19.2%。* 在这 51 年的前半段,伯克希尔的净资产大致与那个真正重要的数字相当:企业内在价值。二者当时之所以接近,是因为我们的大部分资源都配置在有价证券上,这些证券会定期按市场报价重估(扣除出售时将产生的税款)。用华尔街的话说,当时我们的资产负债表在很大程度上是“按市价计值”的。然而,到 1990 年代初期,我们的重心已转为全资持有企业,这一转变使资产负债表数字的相关性有所下降。二者之所以脱节,是因为适用于受控公司的会计准则与用于评估有价证券的准则存在实质性差异。我们所持“输家”的账面价值会被减记,“赢家”却从不向上重估。这两种结果我们都经历过:我做过一些愚蠢的收购,后来注销了在这些公司经济商誉上的投入,这一动作减少了伯克希尔的账面价值。我们也有过一些赢家——其中几家规模十分庞大——但从未将它们的账面价值上调过一分钱。随着时间推移,这种(我们赞同的)非对称会计处理必然拉大内在价值与账面价值之间的差距。如今,我们“赢家”身上巨大且仍在增长的未入账收益已经清晰表明,伯克希尔的内在价值远超其账面价值。正因如此,如果我们的股价能低至账面价值的 120%,我们会十分乐意回购股票。以这一价位回购,将立即且实实在在地提升伯克希尔现有股东每股的内在价值。我们旗下企业未能入账的价值增长,也解释了为什么对页表格中伯克希尔市值的累计增幅会大幅超过账面价值增幅。这两个指标在短期内会无规律地上下波动。例如去年,账面价值的表现就更为优异。但拉长时间来看,市值增长应会延续历史上领先账面价值增长的趋势。
Berkshire’s gain in net worth during 2015 was $15.4 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 6.4%. Over the last 51 years (that is, since present management took over), per-share book value has grown from $19 to $155,501, a rate of 19.2% compounded annually.* During the first half of those years, Berkshire’s net worth was roughly equal to the number that really counts: the intrinsic value of the business. The similarity of the two figures existed then because most of our resources were deployed in marketable securities that were regularly revalued to their quoted prices (less the tax that would be incurred if they were to be sold). In Wall Street parlance, our balance sheet was then in very large part “marked to market.” By the early 1990s, however, our focus had changed to the outright ownership of businesses, a shift that diminished the relevance of balance-sheet figures. That disconnect occurred because the accounting rules that apply to controlled companies are materially different from those used in valuing marketable securities. The carrying value of the “losers” we own is written down, but “winners” are never revalued upwards. We’ve had experience with both outcomes: I’ve made some dumb purchases, and the amount I paid for the economic goodwill of those companies was later written off, a move that reduced Berkshire’s book value. We’ve also had some winners – a few of them very big – but have not written those up by a penny. Over time, this asymmetrical accounting treatment (with which we agree) necessarily widens the gap between intrinsic value and book value. Today, the large – and growing – unrecorded gains at our “winners” make it clear that Berkshire’s intrinsic value far exceeds its book value. That’s why we would be delighted to repurchase our shares should they sell as low as 120% of book value. At that level, purchases would instantly and meaningfully increase per-share intrinsic value for Berkshire’s continuing shareholders. The unrecorded increase in the value of our owned businesses explains why Berkshire’s aggregate marketvalue gain – tabulated on the facing page – materially exceeds our book-value gain. The two indicators vary erratically over short periods. Last year, for example, book-value performance was superior. Over time, however, market-value gains should continue their historical tendency to exceed gains in book value.
- 本报告中所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔 A 股。B 股数据为所示 A 股数据的 1/1500。
- All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A.
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伯克希尔这一年
伯克希尔副董事长兼我的合伙人查理·芒格和我都预期,伯克希尔的正常化盈利能力将逐年提升。(当然,实际的年度盈利有时会因美国经济疲软,或可能因保险特大灾难而下降。)有些年份正常化增幅很小,另一些年份则相当可观。去年就是个好年份。亮点如下:
The Year at Berkshire Charlie Munger, Berkshire Vice Chairman and my partner, and I expect Berkshire’s normalized earning power to increase every year. (Actual year-to-year earnings, of course, will sometimes decline because of weakness in the U.S. economy or, possibly, because of insurance mega-catastrophes.) In some years the normalized gains will be small; at other times they will be material. Last year was a good one. Here are the highlights: ‹
2015 年伯克希尔最重要的发展并不在财务层面,尽管它确实带来了更好的盈利。我们的 BNSF 铁路在经历了 2014 年的不佳表现后,去年大幅改善了对客户的服务。为取得这一成果,我们全年投入约 58 亿美元资本支出,这一数字遥遥领先于任何一家美国铁路公司的纪录,且接近我们年折旧费用的三倍。这笔钱花得物有所值。按收入吨英里计算,BNSF 承运了全美约 17% 的城际货运,涵盖铁路、卡车、航空、水运或管道等所有运输方式。就此而言,我们在全美七家大型铁路公司(其中两家总部位于加拿大)中毫无争议地排名第一,货运吨英里数比最接近的竞争对手高出 45%。因此,维持一流服务不仅对托运客户的福祉至关重要,对美国经济的顺畅运转也同样重要。对大多数美国铁路公司而言,2015 年是令人失望的一年:总吨英里数下降,盈利也随之走弱。然而,BNSF 守住了运量,税前利润升至创纪录的 68 亿美元 *(较 2014 年增长 6.06 亿美元)。BNSF 的管理者马特·罗斯(Matt Rose)和卡尔·艾斯(Carl Ice)值得我感谢,也值得各位感谢。
The most important development at Berkshire during 2015 was not financial, though it led to better earnings. After a poor performance in 2014, our BNSF railroad dramatically improved its service to customers last year. To attain that result, we invested about $5.8 billion during the year in capital expenditures, a sum far and away the record for any American railroad and nearly three times our annual depreciation charge. It was money well spent. BNSF moves about 17% of America’s intercity freight (measured by revenue ton-miles), whether transported by rail, truck, air, water or pipeline. In that respect, we are a strong number one among the seven large American railroads (two of which are Canadian-based), carrying 45% more ton-miles of freight than our closest competitor. Consequently, our maintaining first-class service is not only vital to our shippers’ welfare but also important to the smooth functioning of the U.S. economy. For most American railroads, 2015 was a disappointing year. Aggregate ton-miles fell, and earnings weakened as well. BNSF, however, maintained volume, and pre-tax income rose to a record $6.8 billion* (a gain of $606 million from 2014). Matt Rose and Carl Ice, the managers of BNSF, have my thanks and deserve yours.
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BNSF 是我们“五大发动机”中规模最大的一个,这一组合还包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源(Berkshire Hathaway Energy)、马蒙集团(Marmon)、路博润(Lubrizol)和 IMC。这五家公司——我们非保险业务中盈利最强的五家——2015 年合计盈利 131 亿美元,较 2014 年增加 6.5 亿美元。在这五家中,2003 年我们仅持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源,当时盈利为 3.93 亿美元。此后,我们又收购了其余四家中的三家,均以全现金方式完成。但在收购 BNSF 时,我们约 70% 的对价以现金支付,其余部分通过发行伯克希尔股票支付,这使公司流通股数量增加了 6.1%。换言之,过去 12 年间,这五家公司为伯克希尔带来了 127 亿美元的年盈利增长,而伴随的股份稀释极为有限。这符合我们的目标:不只是增加利润,还要确保每股业绩同步提升。
BNSF is the largest of our “Powerhouse Five,” a group that also includes Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Marmon, Lubrizol and IMC. Combined, these companies – our five most profitable non-insurance businesses – earned $13.1 billion in 2015, an increase of $650 million over 2014. Of the five, only Berkshire Hathaway Energy, then earning $393 million, was owned by us in 2003. Subsequently, we purchased three of the other four on an all-cash basis. In acquiring BNSF, however, we paid about 70% of the cost in cash and, for the remainder, issued Berkshire shares that increased the number outstanding by 6.1%. In other words, the $12.7 billion gain in annual earnings delivered Berkshire by the five companies over the twelve-year span has been accompanied by only minor dilution. That satisfies our goal of not simply increasing earnings, but making sure we also increase per-share results.
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明年,我要讨论的将是“六大发动机”。新进成员是精密铸件公司(Precision Castparts Corp.,简称“PCC”),我们一个月前以逾 320 亿美元现金将其收购。PCC 与伯克希尔模式完美契合,并将显著提升我们的正常化每股盈利能力。在首席执行官马克·多尼根(Mark Donegan)的带领下,PCC 已成为全球航空航天零部件的一流供应商(其产品大多用作原厂配套,但备件对公司同样重要)。马克的成就让我想起雅各布·哈帕兹(Jacob Harpaz)在 IMC——我们那家卓越的以色列切削刀具制造商——定期展现的魔法。两人都能将看似极为普通的原材料转化为全球各大制造商所用的非凡产品。他们各自都是本行当里的达·芬奇。PCC 的产品通常按多年期合同交付,是大多数大型飞机的关键部件。公司 30,466 名员工分布在 13 个国家的 162 个工厂,也为其他行业提供服务。在打造业务的过程中,马克已完成多笔收购,未来还将进行更多。我们期待他运用伯克希尔的资本。
Next year, I will be discussing the “Powerhouse Six.” The newcomer will be Precision Castparts Corp. (“PCC”), a business that we purchased a month ago for more than $32 billion of cash. PCC fits perfectly into the Berkshire model and will substantially increase our normalized per-share earning power. Under CEO Mark Donegan, PCC has become the world’s premier supplier of aerospace components (most of them destined to be original equipment, though spares are important to the company as well). Mark’s accomplishments remind me of the magic regularly performed by Jacob Harpaz at IMC, our remarkable Israeli manufacturer of cutting tools. The two men transform very ordinary raw materials into extraordinary products that are used by major manufacturers worldwide. Each is the da Vinci of his craft. PCC’s products, often delivered under multi-year contracts, are key components in most large aircraft. Other industries are served as well by the company’s 30,466 employees, who work out of 162 plants in 13 countries. In building his business, Mark has made many acquisitions and will make more. We look forward to having him deploy Berkshire’s capital.
- 本信所述全部盈利,除另有注明外,均按税前口径列示。 4
- Throughout this letter, all earnings are stated on a pre-tax basis unless otherwise designated. 4
一则私人致谢:若没有我们自己的托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)提供的意见和协助,收购 PCC 的这笔交易不会达成——他在几年前把这家公司带进我的视野,随后又一再向我讲解这门生意和马克其人。虽然托德和泰德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler)主业是投资经理——他们各自为我们管理约 90 亿美元——但两人都满心乐意、也颇有能力地在其他方面为伯克希尔创造重大价值。延揽他们两位,是我此生最得意的决策之一。
A personal thank-you: The PCC acquisition would not have happened without the input and assistance of our own Todd Combs, who brought the company to my attention a few years ago and went on to educate me about both the business and Mark. Though Todd and Ted Weschler are primarily investment managers – they each handle about $9 billion for us – both of them cheerfully and ably add major value to Berkshire in other ways as well. Hiring these two was one of my best moves. ‹
收购 PCC 后,伯克希尔将拥有 10 又 1/4 家如果独立运营便可跻身《财富》500 强的公司。(我们持有 27% 股权的卡夫亨氏就是那 1/4。)剩下的,还有将近 98% 的美国商业巨头没给我们打过电话。接线员已就位。
With the PCC acquisition, Berkshire will own 10 1⁄ 4 companies that would populate the Fortune 500 if they were stand-alone businesses. (Our 27% holding of Kraft Heinz is the 1⁄ 4.) That leaves just under 98% of America’s business giants that have yet to call us. Operators are standing by.
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我们旗下数十家规模较小的非保险业务去年盈利 57 亿美元,高于 2014 年的 51 亿美元。在这一群体中,有一家去年盈利超过 7 亿美元,两家盈利在 4 亿至 7 亿美元之间,七家在 2.5 亿至 4 亿美元之间,六家在 1 亿至 2.5 亿美元之间,还有十一家在 5,000 万至 1 亿美元之间。我们对它们全都喜爱有加:随着岁月流逝,这个业务群无论在数量上还是盈利上都将不断壮大。
Our many dozens of smaller non-insurance businesses earned $5.7 billion last year, up from $5.1 billion in 2014. Within this group, we have one company that last year earned more than $700 million, two that earned between $400 million and $700 million, seven that earned between $250 million and $400 million, six that earned between $100 million and $250 million, and eleven that earned between $50 million and $100 million. We love them all: This collection of businesses will expand both in number and earnings as the years go by.
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当你听到人们谈论美国基础设施老旧破败时,大可放心,他们说的绝不是伯克希尔。去年,我们在不动产、厂房和设备上投入了 160 亿美元,其中整整 86% 投在了美国境内。我此前已经提到 BNSF 在 2015 年创纪录的资本支出。每到年末,我们铁路的实体设施都会比十二个月前更上一个台阶。伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)也是如此。这家公司已向可再生能源领域投资 160 亿美元,如今拥有全美 7% 的风力发电量和 6% 的太阳能发电量。事实上,我们受监管公用事业公司自有并运营的 4,423 兆瓦风力发电装机容量,是排名第二的同行的六倍。我们还没停步。去年,为支持巴黎气候变化大会,BHE 对可再生能源的未来发展做出了重大承诺。兑现这些承诺,无论对环境还是对伯克希尔的经济利益,都具有非常重要的意义。
When you hear talk about America’s crumbling infrastructure, rest assured that they’re not talking about Berkshire. We invested $16 billion in property, plant and equipment last year, a full 86% of it deployed in the United States. I told you earlier about BNSF’s record capital expenditures in 2015. At the end of every year, our railroad’s physical facilities will be improved from those existing twelve months earlier. Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) is a similar story. That company has invested $16 billion in renewables and now owns 7% of the country’s wind generation and 6% of its solar generation. Indeed, the 4,423 megawatts of wind generation owned and operated by our regulated utilities is six times the generation of the runner-up utility. We’re not done. Last year, BHE made major commitments to the future development of renewables in support of the Paris Climate Change Conference. Our fulfilling those promises will make great sense, both for the environment and for Berkshire’s economics.
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2015 年,伯克希尔规模庞大且仍在增长的保险业务再次实现承保利润——这已是连续第 13 年——浮存金也进一步增加。这些年里,我们的浮存金——那些不属于我们、却可以拿来为伯克希尔利益投资的资金——从 410 亿美元增至 880 亿美元。尽管这一增长和浮存金的规模都没有体现在伯克希尔的盈利里,浮存金却因其所对应的可投资资产,创造了可观的投资收益。与此同时,这 13 年间我们的承保利润累计达 260 亿美元,其中 2015 年就赚了 18 亿美元。毫无疑问,伯克希尔最大的一笔未入账财富,就在保险业务里。我们花了 48 年打造这项多面手的业务,它无法被复制。
Berkshire’s huge and growing insurance operation again operated at an underwriting profit in 2015 – that makes 13 years in a row – and increased its float. During those years, our float – money that doesn’t belong to us but that we can invest for Berkshire’s benefit – grew from $41 billion to $88 billion. Though neither that gain nor the size of our float is reflected in Berkshire’s earnings, float generates significant investment income because of the assets it allows us to hold. Meanwhile, our underwriting profit totaled $26 billion during the 13-year period, including $1.8 billion earned in 2015. Without a doubt, Berkshire’s largest unrecorded wealth lies in its insurance business. We’ve spent 48 years building this multi-faceted operation, and it can’t be replicated.
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在我和查理物色新收购对象的同时,旗下众多子公司也在定期进行补强收购。去年我们签下 29 笔补强收购,合计预计花费 6.34 亿美元,单笔金额从 30 万美元到 1.43 亿美元不等。只要价格合理,我和查理都乐见补强收购。(不过,送到我们面前的交易,绝大多数都价格不合理。)这些收购把资金投向与现有业务契合、且将由我们那批行家里手来管理的经营项目。这意味着我们无需额外操劳,伯克希尔却能多赚利润——这样的搭配令我们极为中意。未来若干年里,我们还会做成几十笔补强收购。
While Charlie and I search for new businesses to buy, our many subsidiaries are regularly making bolt-on acquisitions. Last year we contracted for 29 bolt-ons, scheduled to cost $634 million in aggregate. The cost of these purchases ranged from $300,000 to $143 million. Charlie and I encourage bolt-ons, if they are sensibly-priced. (Most deals offered us most definitely aren’t.) These purchases deploy capital in operations that fit with our existing businesses and that will be managed by our corps of expert managers. That means no additional work for us, yet more earnings for Berkshire, a combination we find highly appealing. We will make many dozens of bolt-on deals in future years.
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去年,我们与豪尔赫·保罗·莱曼、亚历克斯·贝林、贝尔纳多·埃斯合伙持有的亨氏,通过与卡夫合并,规模扩大了一倍以上。这笔交易之前,我们持有亨氏约 53% 的股份,成本为 42.5 亿美元;如今我们持有卡夫亨氏 3.254 亿股(约 27%),成本为 98 亿美元。新公司年销售额达 270 亿美元,能供你亨氏番茄酱或芥末酱,配上卡夫那边的 Oscar Mayer 热狗,再加一杯可乐,你就享用到了我最心爱的一餐。(股东大会我们会开来 Oscar Mayer 的维纳热狗车——请带上孩子。)尽管我们一股卡夫亨氏都没卖,合并完成时,“公认会计准则”(GAAP)却要求我们对这笔投资入账 68 亿美元的增值。这样一来,卡夫亨氏在我们资产负债表上的账面价值,比成本高出数十亿美元,又比市值低数十亿美元——这种结果,恐怕只有会计师才会喜欢。伯克希尔还持有卡夫亨氏的优先股,每年为我们带来 7.2 亿美元,账面记为 77 亿美元。这笔持仓几乎肯定会在 6 月(优先股条款允许的最早日期)以 83.2 亿美元被赎回。这对卡夫亨氏是好消息,对伯克希尔则是坏消息。豪尔赫·保罗和他的同伴,是再好不过的合伙人。我们与他们一样,热衷于收购、打造并长期持有那些满足人们基本需求和欲望的大公司。不过,在追逐这一目标时,我们走的是不同的路。他们的做法——他们凭此取得了非凡成功——是买下那些存在削减大量不必要成本空间的公司,然后极其迅速地出手,把该做的事一举做成。他们的行动大幅提升了生产率,而生产率正是过去 240 年美国经济增长中最关键的因素。若每小时工作时长的合意商品和服务产出没有增长——这正是衡量生产率提升的标尺——经济必然停滞。在美国企业界的很多地方,生产率仍有大幅提升的空间,这一事实为豪尔赫·保罗和他的同伴提供了机会。在伯克希尔,我们同样渴求效率、厌恶官僚。但为达成目标,我们走的是另一条路:着力避免机构臃肿,去买那些长期由注重成本、讲究效率的管理者经营的公司,比如 PCC。买下之后,我们的角色只是营造一种环境,让这些 CEO——以及通常与他们志趣相投的接班人选——既能把管理效能发挥到极致,也能从工作中获得更多乐趣。(秉持这种放手的作风,我遵循的是芒格的一句名言:“想给自己保证一辈子的痛苦,办法就是娶一个你一心想改造的人。”)我们会继续以极端——甚至可说是闻所未闻——的分权方式经营伯克希尔。但我们也会寻找与豪尔赫·保罗合作的机会,或是作为融资伙伴,如他的团队收购蒂姆·霍顿时那样,或是作为股权加融资的联合伙伴,如在亨氏交易中那样。我们偶尔也会与别人合作,就像在 Berkadia 上成功做到的那样。不过,伯克希尔只与进行善意收购的伙伴同行。诚然,某些敌意收购是站得住脚的:有些 CEO 忘了自己是该为股东打工的,另一些管理者则无能到令人惋惜。无论哪种情形,董事们要么对问题视而不见,要么只是不愿推动必要的变革,这时确实需要新面孔。可这些“机会”,我们宁愿留给别人。在伯克希尔,我们只去我们受欢迎的地方。
Our Heinz partnership with Jorge Paulo Lemann, Alex Behring and Bernardo Hees more than doubled its size last year by merging with Kraft. Before this transaction, we owned about 53% of Heinz at a cost of $4.25 billion. Now we own 325.4 million shares of Kraft Heinz (about 27%) that cost us $9.8 billion. The new company has annual sales of $27 billion and can supply you Heinz ketchup or mustard to go with your Oscar Mayer hot dogs that come from the Kraft side. Add a Coke, and you will be enjoying my favorite meal. (We will have the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile at the annual meeting – bring your kids.) Though we sold no Kraft Heinz shares, “GAAP” (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) required us to record a $6.8 billion write-up of our investment upon completion of the merger. That leaves us with our Kraft Heinz holding carried on our balance sheet at a value many billions above our cost and many billions below its market value, an outcome only an accountant could love. Berkshire also owns Kraft Heinz preferred shares that pay us $720 million annually and are carried at $7.7 billion on our balance sheet. That holding will almost certainly be redeemed for $8.32 billion in June (the earliest date allowed under the preferred’s terms). That will be good news for Kraft Heinz and bad news for Berkshire. Jorge Paulo and his associates could not be better partners. We share with them a passion to buy, build and hold large businesses that satisfy basic needs and desires. We follow different paths, however, in pursuing this goal. Their method, at which they have been extraordinarily successful, is to buy companies that offer an opportunity for eliminating many unnecessary costs and then – very promptly – to make the moves that will get the job done. Their actions significantly boost productivity, the all-important factor in America’s economic growth over the past 240 years. Without more output of desired goods and services per working hour – that’s the measure of productivity gains – an economy inevitably stagnates. At much of corporate America, truly major gains in productivity are possible, a fact offering opportunities to Jorge Paulo and his associates. At Berkshire, we, too, crave efficiency and detest bureaucracy. To achieve our goals, however, we follow an approach emphasizing avoidance of bloat, buying businesses such as PCC that have long been run by cost-conscious and efficient managers. After the purchase, our role is simply to create an environment in which these CEOs – and their eventual successors, who typically are like-minded – can maximize both their managerial effectiveness and the pleasure they derive from their jobs. (With this hands-off style, I am heeding a well-known Mungerism: “If you want to guarantee yourself a lifetime of misery, be sure to marry someone with the intent of changing their behavior.”) We will continue to operate with extreme – indeed, almost unheard of – decentralization at Berkshire. But we will also look for opportunities to partner with Jorge Paulo, either as a financing partner, as was the case when his group purchased Tim Horton’s, or as a combined equity-and-financing partner, as at Heinz. We also may occasionally partner with others, as we have successfully done at Berkadia. Berkshire, however, will join only with partners making friendly acquisitions. To be sure, certain hostile offers are justified: Some CEOs forget that it is shareholders for whom they should be working, while other managers are woefully inept. In either case, directors may be blind to the problem or simply reluctant to make the change required. That’s when new faces are needed. We, though, will leave these “opportunities” for others. At Berkshire, we go only where we are welcome.
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去年,伯克希尔在“四大重仓”——美国运通、可口可乐、IBM 和富国银行——上的持股比例都有所提高。我们增持了 IBM(持股从 2014 年末的 7.8% 升至 8.4%)和富国银行(从 9.4% 升至 9.8%)。另外两家,可口可乐和美国运通,则是通过股票回购提高了我们的持股比例:我们在可口可乐的持股从 9.2% 升至 9.3%,在美国运通的持股从 14.8% 升至 15.6%。如果你觉得这些看似微小的变化不重要,不妨算这么一笔账:就这四家公司合计而言,我们的持股比例每提高一个百分点,伯克希尔在它们年利润中的份额就多出约 5 亿美元。这四家被投资公司都拥有出色的业务,由既有才干、又替股东着想的经理人掌管,有形资本回报率从优异到惊人不等。在伯克希尔,我们宁愿持有一家出色公司有影响力的少数股权,也不愿全资拥有一门平庸的生意。拥有希望之钻的一角,胜过独占一整颗人造钻石。若以伯克希尔年末的持股为基准,我们在“四大重仓”2015 年利润中的份额合计为 47 亿美元。但在向各位报告的利润里,我们只计入它们付给我们的股息——去年约 18 亿美元。不过别弄错了:这些公司未报告在伯克希尔账上的近 30 亿美元利润,对我们的价值丝毫不亚于伯克希尔已入账的那部分。被投资公司留存的利润往往会用于回购自家股票——这一举动无需我们掏一分钱,就能抬高伯克希尔在其未来利润中的份额。这些留存利润还会为通常颇有收益的业务机会提供资金。凡此种种,都让我们有理由预期:这四家被投资公司合计的每股利润,将随时间大幅增长。增长一旦兑现,伯克希尔收到的股息就会增加,我们的未实现资本利得也会随之增加。我们在资本配置上的灵活性——愿意把大笔资金被动投向我们并不控股的企业——相比那些只肯收购、并且非自己经营不可的公司,给了我们一个显著优势。伍迪·艾伦曾解释说,做双性恋的好处是周六晚上找到约会对象的机会翻了一倍。同样的道理——好吧,不完全一样——我们对经营企业和被动投资两者都来者不拒,这让伯克希尔那口永不枯竭的现金喷泉找到明智去处的机会也翻了一倍。除此之外,手握一个庞大的有价证券组合,等于备下一笔随时可动用的资金,一旦有大象级的收购机会送上门来,我们便能出手。
Berkshire increased its ownership interest last year in each of its “Big Four” investments – American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo. We purchased additional shares of IBM (increasing our ownership to 8.4% versus 7.8% at yearend 2014) and Wells Fargo (going to 9.8% from 9.4%). At the other two companies, Coca-Cola and American Express, stock repurchases raised our percentage ownership. Our equity in Coca-Cola grew from 9.2% to 9.3%, and our interest in American Express increased from 14.8% to 15.6%. In case you think these seemingly small changes aren’t important, consider this math: For the four companies in aggregate, each increase of one percentage point in our ownership raises Berkshire’s portion of their annual earnings by about $500 million. These four investees possess excellent businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. Their returns on tangible equity range from excellent to staggering. At Berkshire, we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful company to owning 100% of a so-so business. It’s better to have a partial interest in the Hope Diamond than to own all of a rhinestone. If Berkshire’s yearend holdings are used as the marker, our portion of the “Big Four’s” 2015 earnings amounted to $4.7 billion. In the earnings we report to you, however, we include only the dividends they pay us – about $1.8 billion last year. But make no mistake: The nearly $3 billion of these companies’ earnings we don’t report are every bit as valuable to us as the portion Berkshire records. The earnings our investees retain are often used for repurchases of their own stock – a move that increases Berkshire’s share of future earnings without requiring us to lay out a dime. The retained earnings of these companies also fund business opportunities that usually turn out to be advantageous. All that leads us to expect that the per-share earnings of these four investees, in aggregate, will grow substantially over time. If gains do indeed materialize, dividends to Berkshire will increase and so, too, will our unrealized capital gains. Our flexibility in capital allocation – our willingness to invest large sums passively in non-controlled businesses – gives us a significant edge over companies that limit themselves to acquisitions they will operate. Woody Allen once explained that the advantage of being bi-sexual is that it doubles your chance of finding a date on Saturday night. In like manner – well, not exactly like manner – our appetite for either operating businesses or passive investments doubles our chances of finding sensible uses for Berkshire’s endless gusher of cash. Beyond that, having a huge portfolio of marketable securities gives us a stockpile of funds that can be tapped when an elephant-sized acquisition is offered to us.
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今年是大选年,候选人们对国家的种种问题喋喋不休(当然,这些问题只有他们才解决得了)。在这种负面鼓噪的轮番轰炸下,如今许多美国人相信,自己的孩子会过得不如自己。这种看法大错特错:今天在美国出生的婴儿,是有史以来最幸运的一批。美国的人均 GDP 现在约为 5.6 万美元。正如我去年所说,按实际购买力算,这已是我出生那年——1930 年——的六倍,这一飞跃远远超出了我父母及其同辈人最狂野的梦想。今天的美国人并非天生比 1930 年的美国人更聪明,也不比那时工作更卖力。他们只是工作高效得多,产出也因此大得多。这股势不可挡的趋势必将延续:美国的经济魔法依旧鲜活有力。有评论家哀叹当前实际 GDP 每年只有 2% 的增速——是的,我们都希望看到更高的数字。但让我们就用这个备受埋怨的 2% 做点简单算术。你会发现,这个增速带来的收获相当惊人。
It’s an election year, and candidates can’t stop speaking about our country’s problems (which, of course, only they can solve). As a result of this negative drumbeat, many Americans now believe that their children will not live as well as they themselves do. That view is dead wrong: The babies being born in America today are the luckiest crop in history. American GDP per capita is now about $56,000. As I mentioned last year that – in real terms – is a staggering six times the amount in 1930, the year I was born, a leap far beyond the wildest dreams of my parents or their contemporaries. U.S. citizens are not intrinsically more intelligent today, nor do they work harder than did Americans in 1930. Rather, they work far more efficiently and thereby produce far more. This all-powerful trend is certain to continue: America’s economic magic remains alive and well. Some commentators bemoan our current 2% per year growth in real GDP – and, yes, we would all like to see a higher rate. But let’s do some simple math using the much-lamented 2% figure. That rate, we will see, delivers astounding gains.
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美国人口每年增长约 0.8%(出生人数减去死亡人数贡献 0.5%,净移民贡献 0.3%)。因此,2% 的整体增长会带来约 1.2% 的人均增长。这听上去也许并不起眼。但在一代人的时间里,比如 25 年,这一增速将带来实际人均 GDP 34.4% 的增长。(复利的效应产生了超出简单用 25 乘以 1.2% 所得百分比的额外增幅。)而这 34.4% 的增长,又将为下一代人带来惊人的 1.9 万美元实际人均 GDP 增量。倘若能均分,一个四口之家每年将多出 7.6 万美元。今天的政客们不必为明天的孩子掉眼泪。事实上,今天的大多数孩子过得相当好。在我所在的中上阶层社区,家家户户日常享有的生活水准,都超过了我出生时约翰·D·洛克菲勒一世所能达到的水平。他那无与伦比的财富,买不来我们现在视作理所当然的东西,无论是交通、娱乐、通信还是医疗服务,仅举几例。洛克菲勒当然拥有权力和名望;但他无法像我的邻居们今天这样生活。尽管下一代要分的蛋糕会比今天大得多,但如何分配仍将激烈地争执不休。正如现在的情形一样,处于工作年龄的人与退休者之间、健康者与病弱者之间、继承者与霍雷肖·阿尔杰式的白手起家者之间、投资者与工人之间,尤其是那些拥有市场高估值的才能的人,与同样体面勤劳却缺乏市场所需技能的美国人之间,将展开对新增商品与服务产出的争夺。这类冲突一直伴随着我们,并将永远持续下去。国会将是战场,金钱和选票是武器。游说仍将是一个增长行业。 不过,好消息是,即便是“输”的一方,也几乎肯定——如他们所理应享受的那样——在未来能获得比过去多得多的商品和服务。他们日益丰饶的生活品质也将大幅提升。在提供人们想要的东西方面,没有什么能比得上市场体系;而在提供人们自己还不知道自己想要的东西上,更是无出其右。我的父母年轻时想象不出一台电视机,我在五十多岁时也不觉得我需要一台个人电脑。这两样产品,一旦人们见识到它们的功能,就迅速彻底改变了人们的生活。我现在每周花十个小时在网上打桥牌。而且,在我写这封信的时候,“搜索”对我来说不可或缺。(不过,Tinder 我还没准备好去用。)240 年来,赌美国输一直是个可怕的错误,现在也远未到开始的时候。美国商业与创新这只金鹅,将继续下出更多、更大的蛋。美国的社会保障承诺将得到兑现,甚至可能变得更加慷慨。是的,美国的孩子们将远比他们的父母生活得更好。
America’s population is growing about .8% per year (.5% from births minus deaths and .3% from net migration). Thus 2% of overall growth produces about 1.2% of per capita growth. That may not sound impressive. But in a single generation of, say, 25 years, that rate of growth leads to a gain of 34.4% in real GDP per capita. (Compounding’s effects produce the excess over the percentage that would result by simply multiplying 25 x 1.2%.) In turn, that 34.4% gain will produce a staggering $19,000 increase in real GDP per capita for the next generation. Were that to be distributed equally, the gain would be $76,000 annually for a family of four. Today’s politicians need not shed tears for tomorrow’s children. Indeed, most of today’s children are doing well. All families in my upper middle-class neighborhood regularly enjoy a living standard better than that achieved by John D. Rockefeller Sr. at the time of my birth. His unparalleled fortune couldn’t buy what we now take for granted, whether the field is – to name just a few – transportation, entertainment, communication or medical services. Rockefeller certainly had power and fame; he could not, however, live as well as my neighbors now do. Though the pie to be shared by the next generation will be far larger than today’s, how it will be divided will remain fiercely contentious. Just as is now the case, there will be struggles for the increased output of goods and services between those people in their productive years and retirees, between the healthy and the infirm, between the inheritors and the Horatio Algers, between investors and workers and, in particular, between those with talents that are valued highly by the marketplace and the equally decent hard-working Americans who lack the skills the market prizes. Clashes of that sort have forever been with us – and will forever continue. Congress will be the battlefield; money and votes will be the weapons. Lobbying will remain a growth industry. The good news, however, is that even members of the “losing” sides will almost certainly enjoy – as they should – far more goods and services in the future than they have in the past. The quality of their increased bounty will also dramatically improve. Nothing rivals the market system in producing what people want – nor, even more so, in delivering what people don’t yet know they want. My parents, when young, could not envision a television set, nor did I, in my 50s, think I needed a personal computer. Both products, once people saw what they could do, quickly revolutionized their lives. I now spend ten hours a week playing bridge online. And, as I write this letter, “search” is invaluable to me. (I’m not ready for Tinder, however.) For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs. America’s social security promises will be honored and perhaps made more generous. And, yes, America’s kids will live far better than their parents did.
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考虑到这股有利的顺风,伯克希尔(当然,还有大量其他企业)几乎肯定会兴旺发达。接替查理和我的经理人,将遵循我们的简单蓝图,不断提升伯克希尔的每股内在价值:(1)持续提升我们众多子公司的基本盈利能力;(2)通过补强型收购进一步增厚其收益;(3)受益于我们投资对象的增长;(4)当伯克希尔股票能以相对于内在价值有显著折价的价格买到时,进行回购;以及(5)偶尔进行一笔大型收购。管理层也会尽量通过极少、甚至从不增发伯克希尔股票的方式,来为你们实现收益最大化。
Considering this favorable tailwind, Berkshire (and, to be sure, a great many other businesses) will almost certainly prosper. The managers who succeed Charlie and me will build Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by following our simple blueprint of: (1) constantly improving the basic earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) benefiting from the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. Management will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares.
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内在商业价值
尽管我和查理经常谈论内在商业价值,但我们无法精确地告诉你伯克希尔股票的这个数字是多少(事实上,对任何其他股票也是如此)。不过,做出一个合理的估算是可能的。在我们 2010 年的年报中,我们列出了三个要素——其中一个为定性要素——我们认为这是估算伯克希尔内在价值的关键。相关讨论完整转载于年报第 113–114 页。以下是两个定量要素的最新情况:2015 年,我们的每股现金与投资增长了 8.3%,达到 159,794 美元(我们持有的卡夫亨氏股份按市值计价),同时我们来自众多业务(包括保险承保利润)的每股收益增长了 2.1%,达到 12,304 美元。在第二个要素中,我们剔除了所持投资产生的股息和利息,因为将其计入会导致价值重复计算。在计算该收益数字时,我们扣除了所有公司管理费用、利息、折旧、摊销和少数股东权益。但是,所得税没有扣除。也就是说,这里的收益是税前口径。
我在上一段中使用了着重号,是因为这是我们首次将保险承保利润计入业务收益。当初我们首次推出伯克希尔的两个定量估值支柱时,并没有这样做,因为当时我们的保险业绩深受巨灾再保险的影响。如果风不刮、地不震,我们就能赚得巨额利润。但一场巨型灾难就会带来赤字。为了当时在陈述业务收益时保持稳健,我们一贯假设承保业务长期来看将盈亏平衡,并在我们每年计算第二个价值因素时,忽略其任何盈利或亏损。
如今,由于我们已经弱化了巨灾再保险业务,并极大地扩展了我们的基础主力险种业务,我们的保险业绩很可能比一二十年前更加稳定。去年,每股承保利润为 1,118 美元,贡献了本节第二段所提及的每股 12,304 美元收益的一部分。在过去十年中,年均承保利润为每股 1,434 美元,我们预计大多数年份都能录得盈利。但你应该意识到,任何特定年份的承保业务都可能亏损,甚至可能大幅亏损。
自 1970 年以来,我们的每股投资以 18.9% 的年复利增长,而我们的每股收益(在期初和期末年份的收益中均包含了承保业绩)则以 23.7% 的速度增长。在随后的 45 年里,伯克希尔股价的涨幅与我们这两个价值衡量指标的增长率非常相似,这绝非巧合。查理和我乐见这两个板块都实现增长,但我们的首要目标是不断构建经营利润。
Intrinsic Business Value As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number is for Berkshire shares (nor, in fact, for any other stock). It is possible, however, to make a sensible estimate. In our 2010 annual report we laid out the three elements – one of them qualitative – that we believe are the keys to an estimation of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 113-114. Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2015 our per-share cash and investments increased 8.3% to $159,794 (with our Kraft Heinz shares stated at market value), and earnings from our many businesses – including insurance underwriting income – increased 2.1% to $12,304 per share. We exclude in the second factor the dividends and interest from the investments we hold because including them would produce a double-counting of value. In arriving at our earnings figure, we deduct all corporate overhead, interest, depreciation, amortization and minority interests. Income taxes, though, are not deducted. That is, the earnings are pre-tax. I used the italics in the paragraph above because we are for the first time including insurance underwriting income in business earnings. We did not do that when we initially introduced Berkshire’s two quantitative pillars of valuation because our insurance results were then heavily influenced by catastrophe coverages. If the wind didn’t blow and the earth didn’t shake, we made large profits. But a mega-catastrophe would produce red ink. In order to be conservative then in stating our business earnings, we consistently assumed that underwriting would break even over time and ignored any of its gains or losses in our annual calculation of the second factor of value. Today, our insurance results are likely to be more stable than was the case a decade or two ago because we have deemphasized catastrophe coverages and greatly expanded our bread-and-butter lines of business. Last year, our underwriting income contributed $1,118 per share to the $12,304 per share of earnings referenced in the second paragraph of this section. Over the past decade, annual underwriting income has averaged $1,434 per share, and we anticipate being profitable in most years. You should recognize, however, that underwriting in any given year could well be unprofitable, perhaps substantially so. Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 18.9% compounded annually, and our earnings (including the underwriting results in both the initial and terminal year) have grown at a 23.7% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the ensuing 45 years has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both sectors, but our main goal is to build operating earnings.
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现在,让我们审视我们旗下业务的四大板块。每一大板块的资产负债表和利润表特征都与其他板块截然不同。因此,我们将它们视为四个独立的业务,这也是查理和我看待它们的方式(尽管将它们同归一个屋檐下,有着重要而持久的经济优势)。我们的目标是向你们提供这样的信息:假如我们角色互换,你们是提交报告的经理,我们是远方的股东,我们作为股东会希望了解的那些信息。(先别激动,这可不是我们正在考虑的转换。)
Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them (though there are important and enduring economic advantages to having them all under one roof). Our intent is to provide you with the information we would wish to have if our positions were reversed, with you being the reporting manager and we the absentee shareholders. (Don’t get excited; this is not a switch we are considering.)
保险
Insurance
让我们先看保险业务。财产险-意外险(“产险/意外险”)行业板块,自 1967 年以来就一直是推动我们扩张的引擎——那一年,我们以 860 万美元收购了国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity)及其姊妹公司国民火灾与海事保险公司(National Fire & Marine)。今天,以净资产衡量,国民赔偿公司是全球最大的产险/意外险公司。而且,它的内在价值远远超过我们账面上所记录的价值。
Let’s look first at insurance. The property-casualty (“P/C”) branch of that industry has been the engine that has propelled our expansion since 1967, when we acquired National Indemnity and its sister company, National Fire & Marine, for $8.6 million. Today, National Indemnity is the largest property-casualty company in the world, as measured by net worth. Moreover, its intrinsic value is far in excess of the value at which it is carried on our books.
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我们被产险-意外险业务吸引的原因之一,在于它的财务特征:产险-意外险公司先收取保费,后支付赔款。在极端情况下,例如某些工伤保险事故引发的赔案,赔款支付可能延续数十年之久。这种“现在收取、以后支付”的模式,让产险-意外险公司持有大笔最终将赔给别人的资金——我们称之为“浮存金”。与此同时,保险公司可以利用这些浮存金为自己投资获利。尽管个体保单和赔案来来去去,一家保险公司持有的浮存金规模相对于其保费量而言,通常能保持相当的稳定。因此,随着我们业务增长,我们的浮存金也随之增加。
One reason we were attracted to the P/C business was its financial characteristics: P/C insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over many decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their own benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float.
我们的增长有多么迅速,下表可见一斑:
And how we have grown, as the following table shows:
年份
Year
浮存金(单位:百万美元)
Float (in millions)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
$
$
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 87,722
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 87,722
浮存金要再往上走,将会越来越难。好的一面是,GEICO 和我们几家专业公司几乎肯定会以不错的速度增长。不过,国民赔偿的再保险部门手上有一批正在收尾的合约,其浮存金在逐年往下走。假如浮存金真的下降,那也会非常缓慢——任何一年至多不超过 3%。我们保险合同的性质决定了,我们绝不会突然或在短期内面临对现金构成压力的巨额赔付要求。这种结构是刻意设计的,是伯克希尔这座经济堡垒的一根关键支柱,永远不容打折扣。若保费收入超过费用和最终赔付之和,我们便录得承保利润,为浮存金带来的投资收益锦上添花。赚到这样一笔利润时,我们等于免费用着别人的钱——更妙的是,持有这笔钱还有人倒贴给我们报酬。遗憾的是,所有保险公司都盼着这份美事,竞争便格外激烈,激烈到有时把整个财产意外险行业逼入严重的承保亏损。说到底,这份亏损就是这个行业为持有浮存金所付的代价。竞争的态势几乎注定:尽管家家都享有浮存金收益,与其他美国企业相比,保险业有形净资产回报率长期偏低的惨淡纪录仍会延续。眼下全球正在经历的漫长低利率,也几乎注定浮存金的收益在未来许多年里将持续走低,令保险公司的盈利难题雪上加霜。几乎可以断言,未来十年整个行业的成绩会逊于过去十年,专营再保险的公司尤其如此。正如本报告开头所说,伯克希尔如今已连续 13 年实现承保盈利,这段时期的税前利润合计达 262 亿美元。这绝非侥幸:严守风控是我们每一位保险经理每天的头等大事,他们都懂得,浮存金虽宝贵,其好处却可能被糟糕的承保成绩淹没。这套道理,所有保险公司都挂在嘴上;在伯克希尔,它是一条信仰,而且是旧约那般严苛的信仰。那么,浮存金究竟如何影响内在价值?计算伯克希尔账面价值时,浮存金要全额作为负债扣除,仿佛我们明天就得把它悉数赔光、且无从补充。可把浮存金一味当成负债并不对,它更该被看作一笔循环使用的资金:每一天我们都在支付旧的赔款及相关费用——2015 年,我们向 600 多万名索赔人支付了高达 245 亿美元——这会减少浮存金;可同样确凿的是,我们每天也在承接新业务,新业务很快又会生出自己的理赔,把浮存金补上。
Further gains in float will be tough to achieve. On the plus side, GEICO and several of our specialized operations are almost certain to grow at a good clip. National Indemnity’s reinsurance division, however, is party to a number of run-off contracts whose float drifts downward. If we do in time experience a decline in float, it will be very gradual – at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate or near-term demands for sums that are of significance to our cash resources. This structure is by design and is a key component in the strength of Berkshire’s economic fortress. It will never be compromised. If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous indeed that it sometimes causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Competitive dynamics almost guarantee that the insurance industry, despite the float income all its companies enjoy, will continue its dismal record of earning subnormal returns on tangible net worth as compared to other American businesses. The prolonged period of low interest rates the world is now dealing with also virtually guarantees that earnings on float will steadily decrease for many years to come, thereby exacerbating the profit problems of insurers. It’s a good bet that industry results over the next ten years will fall short of those recorded in the past decade, particularly for those companies that specialize in reinsurance. As noted early in this report, Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 13 consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $26.2 billion. That’s no accident: Disciplined risk evaluation is the daily focus of all of our insurance managers, who know that while float is valuable, its benefits can be drowned by poor underwriting results. All insurers give that message lip service. At Berkshire it is a religion, Old Testament style. So how does our float affect intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and could not replenish it. But to think of float as strictly a liability is incorrect. It should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. Daily, we pay old claims and related expenses – a huge $24.5 billion to more than six million claimants in 2015 – and that reduces float. Just as surely, we each day write new business that will soon generate its own claims, adding to float.
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如果我们这笔循环浮存金既没有成本又能长久维持——我相信事实正是如此——那么这项负债的真实价值就远远低于账面负债的价值。欠着一块钱,这笔钱实际上永远不会离开公司——因为新业务几乎肯定会递补进来——这与欠着一块钱、明天就要付出去且无从补回,是天壤之别。然而,按照公认会计原则(GAAP),这两类负债却被同等对待。对这项被高估的负债,有一项部分抵消:我们收购保险公司时产生的 155 亿美元“商誉”资产,它增加了账面价值。这笔商誉在很大程度上,代表了我们为旗下保险业务创造浮存金的能力所支付的价格。不过,商誉的成本与其真实价值并无关系。举例来说,如果一家保险公司持续承受大额承保亏损,账面上记录的任何商誉资产,无论其初始成本是多少,都应被视为一文不值。所幸,伯克希尔并不属于这种情况。我和查理相信,我们保险商誉的真实经济价值——也就是如果我们收购一家拥有类似质量浮存金的保险公司时,我们愿意为之付出的价格——远远超过它的历史账面价值。事实上,我们保险业务账上这 155 亿美元商誉,几乎全部在 2000 年就已经入账,可此后我们的浮存金增长到了原来的三倍。它今天的价值,正是我们相信伯克希尔内在商业价值大幅超过账面价值的一个原因——而且是一个极其重要的原因。
If our revolving float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe it will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability. Owing $1 that in effect will never leave the premises – because new business is almost certain to deliver a substitute – is worlds different from owing $1 that will go out the door tomorrow and not be replaced. The two types of liabilities, however, are treated as equals under GAAP. A partial offset to this overstated liability is a $15.5 billion “goodwill” asset that we incurred in buying our insurance companies and that increases book value. In very large part, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. For example, if an insurance company sustains large and prolonged underwriting losses, any goodwill asset carried on the books should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost. Fortunately, that does not describe Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill – what we would happily pay for float of similar quality were we to purchase an insurance operation possessing it – to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. Indeed, almost the entire $15.5 billion we carry for goodwill in our insurance business was already on our books in 2000. Yet we subsequently tripled our float. Its value today is one reason – a huge reason – why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds its book value.
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伯克希尔之所以拥有如此有吸引力的保险经济特性,完全是因为我们有一批出色的经理人,他们经营着纪律严明、商业模式难以复制的业务。让我逐一介绍几家主要公司。按浮存金规模排第一的,是由阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团(Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group)。阿吉特承保的,是别人既没有意愿也没有资本去承担的风险。他的业务运作将承保能力、速度、决断力,以及最为重要的智慧,以保险业独一无二的方式糅合在一起。然而,他从不让伯克希尔暴露在相对于我们自身资源而言不合适的风险之下。事实上,伯克希尔在规避风险方面远比大多数大型保险公司更为审慎。例如,倘若保险业因某场超级巨灾蒙受 2500 亿美元损失——这一损失约为此前行业所经历过的最大损失的三倍——凭着旗下众多盈利来源,伯克希尔整体上当年很可能仍会录得可观的利润。届时我们还会手握充裕现金,并在一片极可能陷入混乱的保险市场中,四处寻找承接大额业务的机会。与此同时,其他主要保险公司和再保险公司即使不面临破产,也会深陷亏损泥潭。1986 年的一个周六,当阿吉特走进伯克希尔的办公室时,他在保险业连一天的经验都没有。然而,我们当时的保险经理迈克·戈德堡(Mike Goldberg)还是把再保险业务的钥匙交到了他手上。凭这一举动,迈克堪称封圣:自那以后,阿吉特为伯克希尔股东创造了数百亿美元的价值。
Berkshire’s attractive insurance economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running disciplined operations that possess hard-to-replicate business models. Let me tell you about the major units. First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, managed by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, Berkshire is far more conservative in avoiding risk than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe – a loss about triple anything it has ever experienced – Berkshire as a whole would likely record a significant profit for the year because of its many streams of earnings. We would also remain awash in cash and be looking for large opportunities to write business in an insurance market that might well be in disarray. Meanwhile, other major insurers and reinsurers would be swimming in red ink, if not facing insolvency. When Ajit entered Berkshire’s office on a Saturday in 1986, he did not have a day’s experience in the insurance business. Nevertheless, Mike Goldberg, then our manager of insurance, handed him the keys to our reinsurance business. With that move, Mike achieved sainthood: Since then, Ajit has created tens of billions of value for Berkshire shareholders.
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我们还有另一家再保险主力公司通用再保险(General Re),由泰德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)执掌。归根到底,一家稳健的保险业务必须恪守四条准则。它必须:(1)理解所有可能让保单发生损失的风险敞口;(2)保守地评估任一风险敞口实际导致损失的概率,以及一旦发生损失可能产生的成本;(3)设定一个在平均意义上覆盖预计赔付成本和运营费用后仍能产生利润的保费;以及(4)在无法获得合适保费时,甘愿选择放弃。
We have another reinsurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross. At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.
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许多保险公司通过了前三项考验,却栽在第四项上。面对竞争对手正争相承揽的业务,它们就是无法转身走开。那句老话:“别人都在做,所以我们也必须做”,在任何行业都是祸根,而在保险业尤为如此。泰德守住了全部四条保险戒律,他的经营业绩就是明证。通用再保险那笔庞大的浮存金,在他的领导下成本一直远优于零成本,我们预计平均而言这种局面还会持续。我们尤其看好通用再保险的国际人寿再保险业务,自 1998 年我们收购这家公司以来,该项业务一直在持续增长并实现盈利。不妨回想一下,在我们收购通用再保险后不久,它便问题缠身,一度让评论人士——以及短暂地让我本人——以为我犯了一个巨大的错误。那段日子早已远去。如今的通用再保险,是一块瑰宝。
Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance. Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been considerably better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, to continue. We are particularly enthusiastic about General Re’s international life reinsurance business, which has grown consistently and profitably since we acquired the company in 1998. It can be remembered that soon after we purchased General Re, it was beset by problems that caused commentators – and me as well, briefly – to believe I had made a huge mistake. That day is long gone. General Re is now a gem.
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最后要说的是 GEICO,65 年前我就是在这家保险公司入门的。GEICO 由托尼·奈斯利(Tony Nicely)执掌,他 18 岁加入公司,到 2015 年已服务满 54 年。托尼于 1993 年出任 CEO,此后公司便一路腾飞。没有比托尼更出色的经理人了。在我认识他的这 40 年里,他的每一步行动都极具道理。1951 年 1 月,当我第一次接触到 GEICO 时,它相对于行业巨头所拥有的巨大成本优势,令我极为震撼。我当时就看得很清楚:GEICO 会成功,因为它配得上成功。没有人喜欢购买车险。然而,几乎人人都喜欢开车。由此产生的车险便成为大多数家庭的一大笔开支。省钱对他们来说至关重要——而只有低成本运营的公司才能做到这一点。事实上,阅读这封信的读者中,至少有 40% 的人能够通过向 GEICO 投保来省钱。所以,别读了——就现在!——请访问 geico.com 或拨打 800-368-2734。GEICO 的成本优势,正是令公司得以年复一年蚕食市场份额的因素。(2015 年底,我们的市场份额为 11.4%,而 1995 年伯克希尔取得 GEICO 控股权时仅为 2.5%。)公司的低成本创造了一条护城河——一条持久的护城河——竞争对手无法跨越。与此同时,我们的壁虎吉祥物从不懈怠地向美国人宣讲 GEICO 能帮他们省下不少钱。我爱听这小家伙传递它的信息:“15 分钟就能帮您节省 15% 或更多的车险费用。”(当然,人堆里总会有一个扫兴的家伙。我的一位朋友说,他很庆幸只有少数几种动物会说话,因为这些会说话的动物,除了保险似乎就不会聊别的话题了。)
Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 65 years ago. GEICO is managed by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 54 years of service in 2015. Tony became CEO in 1993, and since then the company has been flying. There is no better manager than Tony. In the 40 years that I’ve known him, his every action has made great sense. When I was first introduced to GEICO in January 1951, I was blown away by the huge cost advantage the company enjoyed compared to the expenses borne by the giants of the industry. It was clear to me that GEICO would succeed because it deserved to succeed. No one likes to buy auto insurance. Almost everyone, though, likes to drive. The insurance consequently needed is a major expenditure for most families. Savings matter to them – and only a low-cost operation can deliver these. Indeed, at least 40% of the people reading this letter can save money by insuring with GEICO. So stop reading – right now! – and go to geico.com or call 800-368-2734. GEICO’s cost advantage is the factor that has enabled the company to gobble up market share year after year. (We ended 2015 with 11.4% of the market compared to 2.5% in 1995, when Berkshire acquired control of GEICO.) The company’s low costs create a moat – an enduring one – that competitors are unable to cross. All the while, our gecko never tires of telling Americans how GEICO can save them important money. I love hearing the little guy deliver his message: “15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance.” (Of course, there’s always a grouch in the crowd. One of my friends says he is glad that only a few animals can talk, since the ones that do speak seem unable to discuss any subject but insurance.)
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除了三大主要保险业务,我们还拥有一批以承保商业险为主的小型保险公司。这些公司合在一起,是一门规模可观、持续成长且价值很高的业务,它们持续录得承保利润,且通常远优于其竞争对手公布的成绩。事实上,在过去 13 年里,这一批公司通过承保赚取了 40 亿美元——约占其保费收入的 13%——同时将浮存金从 9.43 亿美元提升至 99 亿美元。不到三年前,我们创立了伯克希尔·哈撒韦专业保险公司(Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance,“BHSI”),我们也将其归入这一批公司中。我们的第一个决定,就是让彼得·伊斯特伍德(Peter Eastwood)来负责。这一步是一记本垒打:BHSI 的年保费规模已发展到 10 亿美元,在彼得的带领下,它注定会成为全球领先的财产/意外险保险公司之一。
In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies that primarily write commercial coverages. In aggregate, these companies are a large, growing and valuable operation that consistently delivers an underwriting profit, usually much better than that reported by their competitors. Indeed, over the past 13 years, this group has earned $4 billion from underwriting – about 13% of its premium volume – while increasing its float from $943 million to $9.9 billion. Less than three years ago, we formed Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (“BHSI”), which we include in this group. Our first decision was to put Peter Eastwood in charge. That move was a home run: BHSI has already developed $1 billion of annual premium volume and, under Peter’s direction, is destined to become one of the world’s leading P/C insurers.
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下面按业务板块回顾一下承保利润和浮存金:
Here’s a recap of underwriting earnings and float by division:
承保利润
Underwriting Profit
年末浮存金(单位:百万美元) 2015 2014 2015 2014
Yearend Float (in millions) 2015 2014 2015 2014
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
保险业务
BH 再保险
通用再保险
Insurance Operations BH Reinsurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General Re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
GEICO
GEICO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
其他主要业务
Other Primary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$
$
421 132 460 824
421 132 460 824
$
$
| 承保利润 | (百万) | 年末浮动 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 保险运营 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 |
| BH再保险 | $ 421 | $ 606 | $ 44,108 | $ 42,454 |
| 通用再保险公司 | 132 | 277 | 18,560 | 19,280 |
| GEICO | 460 | 1,159 | 15,148 | 13,569 |
| 其他主要业务 | 824 | 626 | 9,906 | 8,618 |
| $ 1,837 | $ 2,668 | $ 87,722 | $ 83,921 |
| Underwriting Profit | (in millions) | Yearend Float | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Operations | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2014 |
| BH Reinsurance | $ 421 | $ 606 | $ 44,108 | $ 42,454 |
| General Re | 132 | 277 | 18,560 | 19,280 |
| GEICO | 460 | 1,159 | 15,148 | 13,569 |
| Other Primary | 824 | 626 | 9,906 | 8,618 |
| $ 1,837 | $ 2,668 | $ 87,722 | $ 83,921 |
$
$
1,837
1,837
$
$
2,668 $ 87,722 $ 83,921
2,668 $ 87,722 $ 83,921
杰出的经理人、顶尖的财务实力,加上一批由宽阔护城河护卫、模式各异的业务,共同造就了伯克希尔在保险界独一无二的地位。这一身本领,对伯克希尔股东是一笔巨大的资产,而且只会随时间愈发珍贵。
Berkshire’s great managers, premier financial strength and a variety of business models protected by wide moats amount to something unique in the insurance world. This assemblage of strengths is a huge asset for Berkshire shareholders that will only get more valuable with time.
受监管的资本密集型业务
Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses
我们有两项主力业务——伯灵顿北方圣塔菲铁路公司(BNSF)和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)——它们有一项重要的共性,使其有别于旗下其他业务。为此,我们在本信中给它们单列一节,并在 GAAP 资产负债表和利润表中把两者合并的财务数据单独拆出。去年,这两家合计贡献了伯克希尔税后经营利润的 37%。它们的一个关键特点,是都对寿命极长的受监管资产投下了巨资,而这些投资部分靠大量长期债务支撑,且这些债务并不由伯克希尔担保。其实我们的信用并无必要,因为这两家公司的盈利能力即便在极糟的经济环境下也远超其利息支出。举例来说,去年对铁路业是令人失望的一年,BNSF 的利息保障倍数却仍在 8 倍以上。(我们对保障倍数的定义,是息税前利润与利息之比,而非 EBITDA 与利息之比——后者是常用指标,我们却认为它有严重缺陷。)至于 BHE,有两个因素保证它在任何情形下都还得起债。第一个是所有公用事业公司共有的:抗衰退的盈利,因为这类公司以独家方式提供一项必需服务。第二个则是别家公用事业公司少有的:盈利来源极为多元且日益增多,使 BHE 不至于因某个单一监管机构而元气大伤。这许多路利润来源,再加上背靠一位强大母公司的天然优势,让 BHE 及其公用事业子公司得以大幅压低债务成本。这个经济事实,既惠及我们,也惠及我们的客户。合起来算,BHE 和 BNSF 去年在厂房和设备上投资了 116 亿美元,是对美国基础设施关键部件的一笔巨额投入。只要这类投资有望带来合理回报,我们就乐此不疲——在这一点上,我们对未来的监管抱有厚望。我们的底气,既来自过往的经历,也来自一个判断:社会将永远需要对交通和能源投下巨资。以一种能保证资金持续流向关键项目的方式对待资本提供者,本就符合政府自身的利益;同理,以一种赢得监管机构及其所代表民众认可的方式经营,也符合我们自身的利益。低价,正是让这些各方满意的一件利器。在爱荷华州,BHE 的平均零售电价为每千瓦时 6.8 美分,而该州另一家主要电力公司阿连特(Alliant)平均为 9.5 美分。相邻各州的可比数据是:内布拉斯加 9.0 美分,密苏里 9.3 美分,伊利诺伊 9.3 美分,明尼苏达 9.7 美分,全美平均则为 10.4 美分。我们这近乎见底的电价,为手头拮据的客户省下的是实实在在的钱。
We have two major operations, BNSF and BHE, that share important characteristics distinguishing them from our other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own section in this letter and split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement. Together, they last year accounted for 37% of Berkshire’s after-tax operating earnings. A key characteristic of both companies is their huge investment in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is in fact not needed because each company has earning power that even under terrible economic conditions would far exceed its interest requirements. Last year, for example, in a disappointing year for railroads, BNSF’s interest coverage was more than 8:1. (Our definition of coverage is the ratio of earnings before interest and taxes to interest, not EBITDA/ interest, a commonly used measure we view as seriously flawed.) At BHE, meanwhile, two factors ensure the company’s ability to service its debt under all circumstances. The first is common to all utilities: recession-resistant earnings, which result from these companies offering an essential service on an exclusive basis. The second is enjoyed by few other utilities: a great and ever-widening diversity of earnings streams, which shield BHE from being seriously harmed by any single regulatory body. These many sources of profit, supplemented by the inherent advantage of being owned by a strong parent, have allowed BHE and its utility subsidiaries to significantly lower their cost of debt. This economic fact benefits both us and our customers. All told, BHE and BNSF invested $11.6 billion in plant and equipment last year, a massive commitment to key components of America’s infrastructure. We relish making such investments as long as they promise reasonable returns – and, on that front, we put a large amount of trust in future regulation. Our confidence is justified both by our past experience and by the knowledge that society will forever need huge investments in both transportation and energy. It is in the self-interest of governments to treat capital providers in a manner that will ensure the continued flow of funds to essential projects. It is concomitantly in our self-interest to conduct our operations in a way that earns the approval of our regulators and the people they represent. Low prices are a powerful way to keep these constituencies happy. In Iowa, BHE’s average retail rate is 6.8¢ per KWH. Alliant, the other major electric utility in the state, averages 9.5¢. Here are the comparable industry figures for adjacent states: Nebraska 9.0¢, Missouri 9.3¢, Illinois 9.3¢, Minnesota 9.7¢. The national average is 10.4¢. Our rock-bottom prices add up to real money for paycheck-strapped customers.
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在 BNSF 这边,各大铁路公司的货物结构和平均运距差异极大,价格很难直接比较。姑且给个粗略的尺度:去年我们每吨英里收入不到 3 美分,而美国另外四大铁路公司的客户运输成本至少高出 40%,介于 4.2 到 5.3 美分之间。BHE 和 BNSF 在推行对地球友好的技术上一直走在前列。风力发电方面,没有哪个州比得上爱荷华:去年我们在该州靠风力发出的兆瓦时电量,相当于卖给零售客户全部电量的 47%。(我们已承诺建设的更多风电项目,将在 2017 年把这一比例推高到 58%。)和其他一级铁路一样,BNSF 只用一加仑柴油,就能把一吨货物运出将近 500 英里,燃油效率是卡车的四倍!不仅如此,铁路还大大缓解了公路的拥堵——以及车流加重所带来、由纳税人埋单的养路开支。
At BNSF, price comparisons between major railroads are far more difficult to make because of significant differences in both their mix of cargo and the average distance it is carried. To supply a very crude measure, however, our revenue per ton-mile was just under 3¢ last year, while shipping costs for customers of the other four major U.S.-based railroads were at least 40% higher, ranging from 4.2¢ to 5.3¢. Both BHE and BNSF have been leaders in pursuing planet-friendly technology. In wind generation, no state comes close to Iowa, where last year megawatt-hours we generated from wind equaled 47% of all megawatt-hours sold to our retail customers. (Additional wind projects to which we are committed will take that figure to 58% in 2017.) BNSF, like other Class I railroads, uses only a single gallon of diesel fuel to move a ton of freight almost 500 miles. That makes the railroads four times as fuel-efficient as trucks! Furthermore, railroads alleviate highway congestion – and the taxpayer-funded maintenance expenditures that come with heavier traffic – in a major way.
以下是 BHE 和 BNSF 的关键数据:
Here are the key figures for BHE and BNSF:
伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源(持股 89.9%)
Berkshire Hathaway Energy (89.9% owned)
(单位:百万美元) 2015 年 2014 年 2013 年
Earnings (in millions) 2015 2014 2013
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
英国公用事业公司
爱荷华州公用事业公司
内华达州公用事业公司
太平洋电力公司(主要位于俄勒冈州和犹他州)
天然气管道(北方天然气公司和克恩河管道公司)
加拿大输电公用事业公司
可再生能源项目
HomeServices 公司
其他(净额)
U.K. utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Iowa utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nevada utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PacifiCorp (primarily Oregon and Utah) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gas pipelines (Northern Natural and Kern River) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Canadian transmission utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Renewable projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HomeServices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other (net) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$
$
460 314 586 1,026 401 170 175 191 27
460 314 586 1,026 401 170 175 191 27
$
$
527 298 549 1,010 379 16 194 139 26
527 298 549 1,010 379 16 194 139 26
$
$
362 230 (58) 982 385 — 50 139 12
362 230 (58) 982 385 — 50 139 12
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税费前经营利润…… 利息…… 所得税……
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Income taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3,350 499 481 3,138 427 616 2,102 296 170
3,350 499 481 3,138 427 616 2,102 296 170
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净利润……
Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 2,370 $ 2,095 $ 1,636
$ 2,370 $ 2,095 $ 1,636
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
归属于伯克希尔的利润……
Earnings applicable to Berkshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$ 2,132 $ 1,882 $ 1,470
$ 2,132 $ 1,882 $ 1,470
BNSF 铁路公司
BNSF
(单位:百万美元) 2015 年 2014 年 2013 年
Earnings (in millions) 2015 2014 2013
| BNSF | 收益(百万美元) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| 营业收入 | $ 21,967 | $ 23,239 | $ 22,014 |
| 经营费用 | 14,264 | 16,237 | 15,357 |
| 利息及税前经营收益 | 7,703 | 7,002 | 6,657 |
| 利息(净额) | 928 | 833 | 729 |
| 所得税 | 2,527 | 2,300 | 2,135 |
| 净利润 | $ 4,248 | $ 3,869 | $ 3,793 |
| BNSF | Earnings (in millions) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| Revenues | $ 21,967 | $ 23,239 | $ 22,014 |
| Operating expenses | 14,264 | 16,237 | 15,357 |
| Operating earnings before interest and taxes | 7,703 | 7,002 | 6,657 |
| Interest (net) | 928 | 833 | 729 |
| Income taxes | 2,527 | 2,300 | 2,135 |
| Net earnings | $ 4,248 | $ 3,869 | $ 3,793 |
$ 4,248 $ 3,869 $ 3,793
$ 4,248 $ 3,869 $ 3,793
我目前预计,2016 年 BHE 的税后利润会有所增加,但 BNSF 的利润会有所下降。
I currently expect increased after-tax earnings at BHE in 2016, but lower earnings at BNSF.
14
14
制造业、服务业与零售业
我们伯克希尔在这一领域的业务涵盖方方面面。不过,我们还是先来看看整个集团的汇总资产负债表和利润表。
资产负债表 2015 年 12 月 31 日(单位:百万美元)
Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/15 (in millions)
资产
Assets
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现金及现金等价物 应收账款和应收票据
Cash and equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Accounts and notes receivable . . . . . . . . . . .
负债和股东权益 $
Liabilities and Equity $
6,807 8,886
6,807 8,886
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应付票据 其他流动负债
Notes payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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存货 其他流动资产
Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11,916 970
11,916 970
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流动负债合计
Total current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12,700
12,700
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流动资产合计
Total current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
28,579
28,579
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商誉和其他无形资产 固定资产 其他资产
Goodwill and other intangibles . . . . . . . . . . Fixed assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30,289 15,161 4,445
30,289 15,161 4,445
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递延所得税 定期债务及其他负债 非控制性权益 伯克希尔股东权益
Deferred taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Term debt and other liabilities . . . . . . . . . Non-controlling interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . Berkshire equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3,649 4,767 521 56,837 $ 78,474
3,649 4,767 521 56,837 $ 78,474
$
$
2,135 10,565 $ 78,474
2,135 10,565 $ 78,474
利润表(单位:百万美元)2015 年
Earnings Statement (in millions) 2015
2014 2013*
2014 2013*
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营业收入 | $107,825 | $ 97,689 | $ 93,472 |
| 经营费用 | 100,607 | 90,788 | 87,208 |
| 利息费用 | 103 | 109 | 104 |
| 税前收益 | 7,115 | 6,792 | 6,160 |
| 所得税和非控制性权益 | 2,432 | 2,324 | 2,283 |
| 净利润 | $ 4,683 | $ 4,468 | $ 3,877 |
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $107,825 | $ 97,689 | $ 93,472 |
| Operating expenses | 100,607 | 90,788 | 87,208 |
| Interest expense | 103 | 109 | 104 |
| Pre-tax earnings | 7,115 | 6,792 | 6,160 |
| Income taxes and non-controlling interests | 2,432 | 2,324 | 2,283 |
| Net earnings | $ 4,683 | $ 4,468 | $ 3,877 |
$
$
$
$
3,877
3,877
- 2013 年的利润数据已进行重述,剔除了 Marmon 的租赁业务,这部分现已列入金融与金融产品部门的业绩。我们符合 GAAP 的收入与费用数据见第 38 页。相比之下,上表中的营业费用数字是非 GAAP 口径,因其剔除了某些购买法会计项目(主要是部分无形资产的摊销)。我们以此方式呈报数据,是因为我和查理认为,相较于 GAAP 数字,调整后的数字能更准确地反映表中汇总企业的真实经济费用和利润。我不会逐一解释所有调整——有些调整金额很小且晦涩难懂——但认真的投资者应当理解无形资产的不同性质。有些无形资产确实会随着时间推移而损耗其价值,而另一些则完全不会减值。举一个重要的例子,对软件而言,摊销费用是相当真实的支出。反之,对诸如客户关系等其他无形资产计提费用,源自购买法会计规则,显然并不反映经济现实。GAAP 会计对这两类费用不加区分。也就是说,两者在计算利润时都记作费用——尽管从投资者视角来看,两者可谓天差地别。
- Earnings for 2013 have been restated to exclude Marmon’s leasing operations, which are now included in the Finance and Financial Products results. Our income and expense data conforming to GAAP is on page 38. In contrast, the operating expense figures above are non-GAAP because they exclude some purchase-accounting items (primarily the amortization of certain intangible assets). We present the data in this manner because Charlie and I believe the adjusted numbers more accurately reflect the true economic expenses and profits of the businesses aggregated in the table than do GAAP figures. I won’t explain all of the adjustments – some are tiny and arcane – but serious investors should understand the disparate nature of intangible assets. Some truly deplete in value over time, while others in no way lose value. For software, as a big example, amortization charges are very real expenses. Conversely, the concept of recording charges against other intangibles, such as customer relationships, arises from purchase-accounting rules and clearly does not reflect economic reality. GAAP accounting draws no distinction between the two types of charges. Both, that is, are recorded as expenses when earnings are calculated – even though, from an investor’s viewpoint, they could not differ more.
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在第 38 页那份符合 GAAP 的报表里,我们把 11 亿美元的摊销费用作为支出予以扣除。其中约 20% 我们称之为“真实的”,其余则不算。这些“非真实”的摊销费用,在伯克希尔本来并不存在,却因我们做了众多收购而变得金额可观。随着我们收购更多公司,非真实的摊销费用很可能还会继续攀升。第 55 页的表格列出了按 GAAP 计算的无形资产现状。目前我们还剩 68 亿美元可摊销的无形资产,其中 41 亿美元将在未来五年内计入费用。当然,这些“资产”终有一天会被逐一冲销殆尽。到那时,即便真实盈利原地踏步,账面报告的盈利也会上升。(这算是我留给继任者的一份礼物。)我建议各位对 GAAP 摊销成本中的一部分不予理会。可我这么说时又有些忐忑,因为如今经理人叫股东忽略某些实实在在的费用,已成了家常便饭。“股权薪酬”就是其中最恶劣的一例。这名字本身已说明一切:“薪酬”。薪酬若不算费用,那还能算什么?而真实、经常发生的费用若不该计入盈利,天底下又该把它们算到哪里去?华尔街的分析师们也常在这出闹剧里帮腔,鹦鹉学舌地照搬管理层喂给他们的那些无视薪酬的虚假“盈利”数字。也许这些闯祸的分析师是真不懂,也许是怕失去接触管理层的“门路”,也许是心存犬儒,暗想反正人人都在玩这套游戏,自己何不随大流。不管出于什么盘算,这些分析师都在散布可能误导投资者的失真数字,难辞其咎。折旧费用是个更复杂的话题,但它几乎总是真实的成本,在伯克希尔当然如此。我倒希望自己能在花费低于折旧额的同时,把业务的竞争力维持住,可干了 51 年,我还是没琢磨出办法。事实上,我们铁路业务里记录的折旧费用,远不足以覆盖仅仅维持铁路正常运转所需的资本开支,这种错配使得 GAAP 盈利高于真实的经济盈利。(所有铁路公司都存在这种盈利虚高。)每当 CEO 或投资银行家把 EBITDA 这类未扣折旧的数字吹成估值的尺度时,你尽可以盯着他们的鼻子,看它随着话音一寸寸变长。当然,我们对外报告的盈利仍会照旧遵循 GAAP。但要贴近现实,你得记住把我们报告的大部分摊销费用加回去,同时再减去一块,以反映 BNSF 折旧计提不足的问题。
In the GAAP-compliant figures we show on page 38, amortization charges of $1.1 billion have been deducted as expenses. We would call about 20% of these “real,” the rest not. The “non-real” charges, once nonexistent at Berkshire, have become significant because of the many acquisitions we have made. Non-real amortization charges are likely to climb further as we acquire more companies. The table on page 55 gives you the current status of our intangible assets as calculated by GAAP. We now have $6.8 billion left of amortizable intangibles, of which $4.1 billion will be expensed over the next five years. Eventually, of course, every dollar of these “assets” will be charged off. When that happens, reported earnings increase even if true earnings are flat. (My gift to my successor.) I suggest that you ignore a portion of GAAP amortization costs. But it is with some trepidation that I do that, knowing that it has become common for managers to tell their owners to ignore certain expense items that are all too real. “Stock-based compensation” is the most egregious example. The very name says it all: “compensation.” If compensation isn’t an expense, what is it? And, if real and recurring expenses don’t belong in the calculation of earnings, where in the world do they belong? Wall Street analysts often play their part in this charade, too, parroting the phony, compensation-ignoring “earnings” figures fed them by managements. Maybe the offending analysts don’t know any better. Or maybe they fear losing “access” to management. Or maybe they are cynical, telling themselves that since everyone else is playing the game, why shouldn’t they go along with it. Whatever their reasoning, these analysts are guilty of propagating misleading numbers that can deceive investors. Depreciation charges are a more complicated subject but are almost always true costs. Certainly they are at Berkshire. I wish we could keep our businesses competitive while spending less than our depreciation charge, but in 51 years I’ve yet to figure out how to do so. Indeed, the depreciation charge we record in our railroad business falls far short of the capital outlays needed to merely keep the railroad running properly, a mismatch that leads to GAAP earnings that are higher than true economic earnings. (This overstatement of earnings exists at all railroads.) When CEOs or investment bankers tout pre-depreciation figures such as EBITDA as a valuation guide, watch their noses lengthen while they speak. Our public reports of earnings will, of course, continue to conform to GAAP. To embrace reality, however, you should remember to add back most of the amortization charges we report. You should also subtract something to reflect BNSF’s inadequate depreciation charge.
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话说回来,再看看我们那一大批制造、服务和零售业务,它们卖的东西从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机应有尽有。以无杠杆的有形净资产回报率衡量,这个板块里有些公司经济效益极佳,税后回报从 25% 到远超 100%;另一些能拿出 12% 到 20% 的不错回报。可也有少数几家回报很差——这些是我在资本配置本职上犯下的严重错误。多数情形下,是我看走了眼,误判了公司本身或所在行业的经济态势,如今正为我的误判付出代价;另一些时候,则是我在判断在任经理、或我后来任命之人的品行或能力时失了手。我今后还会犯更多错,这一点你尽管放心。运气好的话,这些错会发生在规模较小的业务上。作为一个整体看,这组公司是一门出色的生意。2015 年它们平均动用了 256 亿美元的有形净资产,尽管手握大量闲置现金、几乎不用杠杆,仍在这笔资本上赚得 18.4% 的税后回报。
Let’s get back to our many manufacturing, service and retailing operations, which sell products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of this sector’s businesses, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets, enjoy terrific economics, producing profits that run from 25% after-tax to far more than 100%. Others generate good returns in the area of 12% to 20%. A few, however – these are serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation – have very poor returns. In most of these cases, I was wrong in my evaluation of the economic dynamics of the company or the industry in which it operates, and we are now paying the price for my misjudgments. At other times, I stumbled in evaluating either the fidelity or the ability of incumbent managers or ones I later appointed. I will commit more errors; you can count on that. If we luck out, they will occur at our smaller operations. Viewed as a single entity, the companies in this group are an excellent business. They employed an average of $25.6 billion of net tangible assets during 2015 and, despite their holding large quantities of excess cash and using only token amounts of leverage, earned 18.4% after-tax on that capital.
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16
当然,一门经济效益再好的生意,买价太高也会沦为一笔糟糕的投资。旗下多数企业,我们支付的价格都远高于其有形净资产,这笔溢价体现在商誉及其他无形资产那个大数字里。但总体而言,我们投在这个板块的资本,回报还算不错。随着金霸王和精密铸件(Precision Castparts)的并入,2016 年该板块的盈利应会大幅增长。
Of course, a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if it is bought at too high a price. We have paid substantial premiums to net tangible assets for most of our businesses, a cost that is reflected in the large figure we show for goodwill and other intangibles. Overall, however, we are getting a decent return on the capital we have deployed in this sector. Earnings from the group should grow substantially in 2016 as Duracell and Precision Castparts enter the fold.
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这一组公司实在太多,没法逐一评说。何况它们的对手——无论现有的还是潜在的——都会读这份报告。在少数几门业务上,一旦别人摸清我们的数字,我们可能会吃亏。因此,对那些规模不足以影响伯克希尔整体估值的业务,我们只披露必须披露的。不过,关于我们许多业务的不少细节,你都能在第 88 至 91 页找到。
We have far too many companies in this group to comment on them individually. Moreover, their competitors – both current and potential – read this report. In a few of our businesses we might be disadvantaged if others knew our numbers. In some of our operations that are not of a size material to an evaluation of Berkshire, therefore, we only disclose what is required. You can nevertheless find a good bit of detail about many of our operations on pages 88-91.
金融与金融产品
Finance and Financial Products
我们的三项租赁与出租业务,分别由 CORT(家具)、XTRA(半挂车)和 Marmon(主营罐车,也有货运车皮、联运罐式集装箱和起重机)经营。这三家都是行业翘楚,随着美国经济走强,盈利大幅增长。它们在新设备上的投入都比许多同行更大,而这份投入已见回报。手握实力、主动出击,是伯克希尔一项经久不衰的优势。
凯文·克莱顿(Kevin Clayton)再次带领克莱顿房屋(Clayton Homes)交出了行业领先的成绩单,这家美国第二大住宅建筑商去年售出 34,397 套住房,约占美国人所购预制房屋的 45%。相比之下,2003 年伯克希尔收购它时,它在这一领域仅排第三,市占率只有 14%。预制房屋让低收入者也能圆上拥有一个家的美国梦:售价 15 万美元及以下的新房,约有 70% 出自我们这个行业。克莱顿约 46% 的房屋,通过我们自营的 331 家门店售出;其余大部分则卖给 1,395 家独立经销商。
克莱顿运营的关键,是它那 128 亿美元的抵押贷款组合。全美预制房屋抵押贷款,约有 35% 是我们发起的。这个组合里约 37% 来自我们自己的零售业务,其余主要由独立经销商发起,其中一些卖我们的房屋,另一些只卖对手的。除克莱顿之外,别的放贷机构来了又走;而有伯克希尔在背后撑腰,克莱顿在 2008 至 2009 年的恐慌岁月里始终坚持为购房者提供贷款。事实上,那段时间克莱顿还动用宝贵的资本,去为那些并不卖我们房屋的经销商融资。当年我们向高盛和通用电气注资的事登上了头条;而伯克希尔悄悄拨给克莱顿的资金,既让成千上万个家庭得以拥有住房,也让许多非克莱顿的经销商活了下来。
我们的零售门店用浅白的措辞和大号字体,始终如一地告知购房者还有别的融资渠道——大多来自当地银行——并且总会请客户签字确认,表明这些信息已经收到并读过。(我们所用的表格,按实际大小复制在第 119 页。)
Our three leasing and rental operations are conducted by CORT (furniture), XTRA (semi-trailers), and Marmon (primarily tank cars but also freight cars, intermodal tank containers and cranes). These companies are industry leaders and have substantially increased their earnings as the American economy has gained strength. At each of the three, we have invested more money in new equipment than have many of our competitors, and that’s paid off. Dealing from strength is one of Berkshire’s enduring advantages. Kevin Clayton has again delivered an industry-leading performance at Clayton Homes, the second-largest home builder in America. Last year, the company sold 34,397 homes, about 45% of the manufactured homes bought by Americans. In contrast, the company was number three in the field, with a 14% share, when Berkshire purchased it in 2003. Manufactured homes allow the American dream of home ownership to be achieved by lower-income citizens: Around 70% of new homes costing $150,000 or less come from our industry. About 46% of Clayton’s homes are sold through the 331 stores we ourselves own and operate. Most of Clayton’s remaining sales are made to 1,395 independent retailers. Key to Clayton’s operation is its $12.8 billion mortgage portfolio. We originate about 35% of all mortgages on manufactured homes. About 37% of our mortgage portfolio emanates from our retail operation, with the balance primarily originated by independent retailers, some of which sell our homes while others market only the homes of our competitors. Lenders other than Clayton have come and gone. With Berkshire’s backing, however, Clayton steadfastly financed home buyers throughout the panic days of 2008-2009. Indeed, during that period, Clayton used precious capital to finance dealers who did not sell our homes. The funds we supplied to Goldman Sachs and General Electric at that time produced headlines; the funds Berkshire quietly delivered to Clayton both made home ownership possible for thousands of families and kept many non-Clayton dealers alive. Our retail outlets, employing simple language and large type, consistently inform home buyers of alternative sources for financing – most of it coming from local banks – and always secure acknowledgments from customers that this information has been received and read. (The form we use is reproduced in its actual size on page 119.)
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住房贷款发起环节的作业方式,对借款人和整个社会都事关重大。毫无疑问,住房放贷中的鲁莽做法,是引爆 2008 年金融恐慌的一大推手,而这场恐慌又酿成了“大衰退”。在崩盘前的那些年里,一种既具破坏性、又常常腐败的房贷制造模式大行其道。其流程是:(1)比如加州的一家放贷机构发放贷款;(2)它立刻把贷款卖给比如纽约的投行或商业银行,后者把大量房贷打包,充当抵押品,拼凑出结构复杂到令人眼花的抵押贷款支持证券;(3)这些证券被卖到世界各地毫不知情的机构手里。仿佛这些罪过还不足以酿成一场大祸,脑筋灵光的投行家有时还要炮制出第二层被切碎的融资产品,其价值取决于首批发行里最劣质的那部分。(华尔街一旦“创新”起来,可得当心!)当年我就把这种“层层叠加”的做法形容为:要评估区区一只在售证券,投资者得读上数万页催人昏睡的文字。这些融资产品的发起方和打包方,自己都没有任何利益与最终结果绑定,一门心思只被成交量和加价所驱动。许多购房者也加入了这场狂欢,在贷款申请上公然撒谎,而放贷机构乐得睁一只眼闭一只眼。自然,最不靠谱的信贷,反倒生出最多的利润。华尔街那些油嘴滑舌的推销员,靠着制造连客户都看不懂的产品,一年就能进账数百万美元。(至于那几家大评级机构,是否有本事评估这些更复杂的结构,也很成问题。但评级它们照样给了。)巴尼·弗兰克大概是恐慌期间国会里最懂金融的议员,他近来评价 2010 年的《多德-弗兰克法案》时说:“我在实施中看到的一个重大弱点,是监管机构决定不对所有居民房贷强制施加风险留存。”如今,一些立法者和评论人士仍主张让发起方自留 1% 到 5% 的风险,好把它的利益与最终贷款人或房贷担保人绑到一起。而在克莱顿,我们的风险留存过去是、现在仍是 100%。一笔贷款只要由我们发起,我们就自己留着(少数符合政府担保条件的除外)。因此,一旦我们在放贷上出了错,就得付出代价——而且是远远吞掉当初卖房利润的沉重代价。去年,我们不得不对 8,444 笔预制房屋贷款启动止赎,为此付出 1.57 亿美元。我们 2015 年发放的平均贷款额只有 59,942 美元,对传统房贷机构是小菜一碟,对我们许多低收入借款人却是一份令人心里发怵的承诺。我们的买家得到的是一套像样的房子——不妨看看我们将在股东大会上展出的那一套——每月本息还款平均为 522 美元。当然,有些借款人会失业,会有离婚和亡故;另一些会在信用卡上透支过头、把财务弄得一团糟。到那时我们会赔钱,借款人也会赔掉首付(尽管他居住期间的月供,或许远低于同类住处的租金)。尽管如此,别看我们借款人的 FICO 分数和收入偏低,他们在“大衰退”期间的还款表现,却远胜许多由收入数倍于此的人所组成的房贷池。我们的借款人对拥有一个自己的家怀着强烈渴望,这是我们房贷组合表现出色的原因之一。同样重要的是,这个组合的大部分资金,是我们靠浮动利率债务或短期固定利率债务筹来的。于是近年来那低得离谱的短期利率,让我们的利息成本与固定利率的房贷收入之间,利差不断拉大。(顺便说一句,即便我们只是买入长期债券、再以某种短期方式为其融资,也照样能享有相近的利差。)
Mortgage-origination practices are of great importance to both the borrower and to society. There is no question that reckless practices in home lending played a major role in bringing on the financial panic of 2008, which in turn led to the Great Recession. In the years preceding the meltdown, a destructive and often corrupt pattern of mortgage creation flourished whereby (1) an originator in, say, California would make loans and (2) promptly sell them to an investment or commercial bank in, say, New York, which would package many mortgages to serve as collateral for a dizzyingly complicated array of mortgage-backed securities to be (3) sold to unwitting institutions around the world. As if these sins weren’t sufficient to create an unholy mess, imaginative investment bankers sometimes concocted a second layer of sliced-up financing whose value depended on the junkier portions of primary offerings. (When Wall Street gets “innovative,” watch out!) While that was going on, I described this “doubling-up” practice as requiring an investor to read tens of thousands of pages of mind-numbing prose to evaluate a single security being offered. Both the originator and the packager of these financings had no skin in the game and were driven by volume and mark-ups. Many housing borrowers joined the party as well, blatantly lying on their loan applications while mortgage originators looked the other way. Naturally, the gamiest credits generated the most profits. Smooth Wall Street salesmen garnered millions annually by manufacturing products that their customers were unable to understand. (It’s also questionable as to whether the major rating agencies were capable of evaluating the more complex structures. But rate them they did.) Barney Frank, perhaps the most financially-savvy member of Congress during the panic, recently assessed the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, saying, “The one major weakness that I’ve seen in the implementation was this decision by the regulators not to impose risk retention on all residential mortgages.” Today, some legislators and commentators continue to advocate a 1%-to-5% retention by the originator as a way to align its interests with that of the ultimate lender or mortgage guarantor. At Clayton, our risk retention was, and is, 100%. When we originate a mortgage we keep it (leaving aside the few that qualify for a government guarantee). When we make mistakes in granting credit, we therefore pay a price – a hefty price that dwarfs any profit we realized upon the original sale of the home. Last year we had to foreclose on 8,444 manufactured-housing mortgages at a cost to us of $157 million. The average loan we made in 2015 was only $59,942, small potatoes for traditional mortgage lenders, but a daunting commitment for our many lower-income borrowers. Our buyer acquires a decent home – take a look at the home we will have on display at our annual meeting – requiring monthly principal-and-interest payments that average $522. Some borrowers, of course, will lose their jobs, and there will be divorces and deaths. Others will get overextended on credit cards and mishandle their finances. We will lose money then, and our borrower will lose his down payment (though his mortgage payments during his time of occupancy may have been well under rental rates for comparable quarters). Nevertheless, despite the low FICO scores and income of our borrowers, their payment behavior during the Great Recession was far better than that prevailing in many mortgage pools populated by people earning multiples of our typical borrower’s income. The strong desire of our borrowers to have a home of their own is one reason we’ve done well with our mortgage portfolio. Equally important, we have financed much of the portfolio with floating-rate debt or with shortterm fixed-rate debt. Consequently, the incredibly low short-term rates of recent years have provided us a constantly-widening spread between our interest costs and the income we derive from our mortgage portfolio, which bears fixed rates. (Incidentally, we would have enjoyed similar margins had we simply bought long-term bonds and financed the position in some short-term manner.)
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通常,像我们在克莱顿这样借短放长、以固定利率发放长期贷款,是件很冒险的事。这些年里,就有一些重要的金融机构因此倒下。但在伯克希尔,我们有一道天然的对冲:旗下业务始终至少握有 200 亿美元赚取短期利率的现金等价物,更多时候,我们的短期投资在 400 亿到 600 亿美元之间。假如我们有,比如说,600 亿美元投在收益率 0.25% 甚至更低的地方,短期利率一旦急升,我们从中多得的好处,将远远盖过为克莱顿那 130 亿美元房贷组合所多付的融资成本。用银行的话说,伯克希尔现在、将来都是高度“资产敏感型”的,因而会从利率上行中获益。下面我想谈一件让我尤其自豪的事,与监管有关。“大衰退”让房贷的发起机构、服务机构和打包机构都遭到严格审视,被课以数十亿美元的罚款和处罚。克莱顿自然也在受审之列,其房贷业务在发起、服务、催收、广告、合规、内控等诸多方面,一直被持续审查和检查。在联邦层面,我们要面对联邦贸易委员会、住房与城市发展部以及消费者金融保护局;此外还有几十个州对我们实施监管。事实上,过去两年里,来自 25 个州的各级联邦和州监管机构,就克莱顿及其房贷共进行了 65 次检查与审查。结果呢?这段时间我们缴纳的罚款总额为 38,200 美元,退还给客户的款项为 704,678 美元。还有,尽管去年我们不得不对 2.64% 的预制房屋贷款启动止赎,到年底仍有 95.4% 的借款人按时还款,正一步步走向拥有一套无债的住房。
Normally, it is risky business to lend long at fixed rates and borrow short as we have been doing at Clayton. Over the years, some important financial institutions have gone broke doing that. At Berkshire, however, we possess a natural offset in that our businesses always maintain at least $20 billion in cash-equivalents that earn short-term rates. More often, our short-term investments are in the $40 billion to $60 billion range. If we have, say, $60 billion invested at 1⁄ 4% or less, a sharp move to higher short-term rates would bring benefits to us far exceeding the higher financing costs we would incur in funding Clayton’s $13 billion mortgage portfolio. In banking terms, Berkshire is – and always will be – heavily asset-sensitive and will consequently benefit from rising interest rates. Let me talk about one subject of which I am particularly proud, that having to do with regulation. The Great Recession caused mortgage originators, servicers and packagers to come under intense scrutiny and to be assessed many billions of dollars in fines and penalties. The scrutiny has certainly extended to Clayton, whose mortgage practices have been continuously reviewed and examined in respect to such items as originations, servicing, collections, advertising, compliance, and internal controls. At the federal level, we answer to the Federal Trade Commission, the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Dozens of states regulate us as well. During the past two years, indeed, various federal and state authorities (from 25 states) examined and reviewed Clayton and its mortgages on 65 occasions. The result? Our total fines during this period were $38,200 and our refunds to customers $704,678. Furthermore, though we had to foreclose on 2.64% of our manufactured-home mortgages last year, 95.4% of our borrowers were current on their payments at yearend, as they moved toward owning a debt-free home.
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到年底,马蒙集团的铁路车辆队已扩充到 133,220 节,这一数字之所以大增,是因为公司在 9 月 30 日从通用电气手中买下了 25,085 节车厢。若把我们所有车厢连成一列火车,车头会在奥马哈,车尾则一直伸到缅因州的波特兰。年底时,我们 97% 的车厢已经出租,每年约有 15% 到 17% 的车辆到期续租。“罐车”听着像是运原油的,可我们车辆中只有约 7% 装的是这种货;化学品和成品油才是我们运输的大头。火车驶过时,留意找一找标着 UTLX 或 Procor 的罐车,那就是我们的。认出这个牌子时,尽管挺起胸膛——那节车厢里有你的一份。
Marmon’s rail fleet expanded to 133,220 units by yearend, a number significantly increased by the company’s purchase of 25,085 cars from General Electric on September 30. If our fleet was connected to form a single train, the engine would be in Omaha and the caboose in Portland, Maine. At yearend, 97% of our railcars were leased, with about 15-17% of the fleet coming up for renewal each year. Though “tank cars” sound like vessels carrying crude oil, only about 7% of our fleet carries that product; chemicals and refined petroleum products are the lead items we transport. When trains roll by, look for the UTLX or Procor markings that identify our tank cars. When you spot the brand, puff out your chest; you own a portion of that car.
下面是这个板块的收益概览:
Here’s the earnings recap for this sector:
2015 2014 2013
2015 2014 2013
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
(单位:百万美元)伯克迪亚(我们的 50% 份额) 克莱顿
(in millions) Berkadia (our 50% share) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clayton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
CORT
CORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
马蒙 – 集装箱与起重机业务 马蒙 – 铁路车辆业务
Marmon – Containers and Cranes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Marmon – Railcars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
XTRA
XTRA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
净金融收益*
Net financial income* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$
$
74 706 55 192 546 172 341
74 706 55 192 546 172 341
2,086 * 不含资本利得或损失
$ 2,086 * Excludes capital gains or losses
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$
$
122 558 49 238 442 147 283 $ 1,839
122 558 49 238 442 147 283 $ 1,839
$
$
80 416 42 226 353 125 322 $ 1,564
80 416 42 226 353 125 322 $ 1,564
以下是我们年末市值最大的十五只普通股投资。我们排除了持有的卡夫亨氏股份,因为我们是控制集团成员,并采用“权益法”核算。
Investments Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value. We exclude our Kraft Heinz holding because we are part of a control group and account for it on the “equity” method.
12/31/15
12/31/15
持股数量**
Shares**
占公司所有权百分比
Percentage of Company Owned
公司
Company
成本*
Cost*
市值
Market
| (百万) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151,610,700 | 美国运通公司 | 15.6 | $ 1,287 | $ 10,545 |
| 46,577,138 | AT&T | 0.8 | 1,283 | 1,603 |
| 7,463,157 | 特许通讯公司 | 6.6 | 1,202 | 1,367 |
| 400,000,000 | 可口可乐公司 | 9.3 | 1,299 | 17,184 |
| 18,513,482 | DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc | 8.8 | 843 | 1,291 |
| 22,164,450 | 迪尔公司 | 7.0 | 1,773 | 1,690 |
| 11,390,582 | 高盛集团 | 2.7 | 654 | 2,053 |
| 81,033,450 | 国际商业机器公司 | 8.4 | 13,791 | 11,152 |
| 24,669,778 | 穆迪公司 | 12.6 | 248 | 2,475 |
| 55,384,926 | Phillips 66 | 10.5 | 4,357 | 4,530 |
| 52,477,678 | 宝洁公司 | 1.9 | 336 | 4,683 *** |
| 22,169,930 | 赛诺菲 | 1.7 | 1,701 | 1,896 |
| 101,859,335 | 美国合众银行 | 5.8 | 3,239 | 4,346 |
| 63,507,544 | 沃尔玛百货公司 | 2.0 | 3,593 | 3,893 |
| 500,000,000 | 富国银行公司 | 9.8 | 12,730 | 27,180 |
| 其他 | 10,276 | 16,450 | ||
| 按市价计量的普通股总计 | $ 58,612 | $ 112,338 |
| (in millions) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 151,610,700 | American Express Company | 15.6 | $ 1,287 | $ 10,545 |
| 46,577,138 | AT&T | 0.8 | 1,283 | 1,603 |
| 7,463,157 | Charter Communications, Inc | 6.6 | 1,202 | 1,367 |
| 400,000,000 | The Coca-Cola Company | 9.3 | 1,299 | 17,184 |
| 18,513,482 | DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc | 8.8 | 843 | 1,291 |
| 22,164,450 | Deere & Company | 7.0 | 1,773 | 1,690 |
| 11,390,582 | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc | 2.7 | 654 | 2,053 |
| 81,033,450 | International Business Machines Corp | 8.4 | 13,791 | 11,152 |
| 24,669,778 | Moody’s Corporation | 12.6 | 248 | 2,475 |
| 55,384,926 | Phillips 66 | 10.5 | 4,357 | 4,530 |
| 52,477,678 | The Procter & Gamble Company | 1.9 | 336 | 4,683 *** |
| 22,169,930 | Sanofi | 1.7 | 1,701 | 1,896 |
| 101,859,335 | U.S. Bancorp | 5.8 | 3,239 | 4,346 |
| 63,507,544 | Wal-Mart Stores, Inc | 2.0 | 3,593 | 3,893 |
| 500,000,000 | Wells Fargo & Company | 9.8 | 12,730 | 27,180 |
| Others | 10,276 | 16,450 | ||
| Total Common Stocks Carried at Market | $ 58,612 | $ 112,338 |
*
*
这是我们实际的买入价,也是我们的计税基础;由于 GAAP 规则在少数情形下要求做增记或减记,GAAP 口径的“成本”会有所不同。
This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of writeups or write-downs that have been required under GAAP rules.
**
**
不含伯克希尔子公司养老基金所持股份。
Excludes shares held by pension funds of Berkshire subsidiaries.
*** 按销售合约以此金额持有。伯克希尔有一项重大股权投资未列入上表:我们可在 2021 年 9 月之前的任何时候,以 50 亿美元买入 7 亿股美国银行股票。年底时,这些股份价值 118 亿美元。我们很可能会赶在期权到期前夕行使购买权;若愿意,还可动用我们持有的 50 亿美元美国银行 6% 优先股来支付这笔款项。在此同时,各位务必意识到,美国银行实际上已是我们的第四大股权投资——也是我们高度看好的一项投资。
*** Held under contract of sale for this amount. Berkshire has one major equity position that is not included in the table: We can buy 700 million shares of Bank of America at any time prior to September 2021 for $5 billion. At yearend these shares were worth $11.8 billion. We are likely to purchase them just before expiration of our option and, if we wish, we can use our $5 billion of Bank of America 6% preferred to fund the purchase. In the meantime, it is important for you to realize that Bank of America is, in effect, our fourth largest equity investment – and one we value highly.
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生产率与繁荣
前面我告诉过各位,我们在卡夫亨氏的合伙人是如何铲除低效、从而提高每工时产出的。自 1776 年建国以来,这种改善一直是美国生活水平取得非凡进步的秘方。遗憾的是,“秘”这个字用得恰如其分:真正理解生产率与繁荣之间关系的美国人,实在太少。要看懂这层关系,我们先来看全国最极致的例子——农业——然后再考察伯克希尔自身的三个领域。
1900 年,美国民用劳动力为 2800 万人。其中 1100 万人务农,占总数的 40%,高得惊人。当时的主要作物与今天一样,是玉米。约 9000 万英亩土地用于玉米生产,每英亩产量为 30 蒲式耳,年总产量为 27 亿蒲式耳。随后,拖拉机问世了,一项接一项的创新彻底变革了种植、收割、灌溉、施肥和种子品质等决定农业生产率的关键环节。今天,我们用于种植玉米的土地约为 8500 万英亩。然而,生产率的提升已将单产推至每英亩 150 蒲式耳以上,年总产量达到 130 至 140 亿蒲式耳。农民在其他农产品上也取得了类似的进步。
不过,单产提高只是故事的一半:实物产出大幅增加的同时,农业劳动力(“人力投入”)的数量却急剧减少。如今约有 300 万人在农场工作,仅占我们 1.58 亿劳动力的 2%。由此可见,改良的耕作方式,让数千万当代劳动者得以把时间和才智投向其他行业,这种人力资源的重新配置,使今天的美国人得以享受大量原本无法获得的非农产品和服务。
回顾这 115 年,很容易看清农业创新的好处何其巨大——不仅仅对农民如此,更广泛地说,对我们整个社会也是如此。如果我们当初扼杀了那些生产率的进步,就绝不会有今天我们所熟知的美国。(幸好马不会投票。)然而,放在日常来看,那些关于“更大的福祉”的言论,在那些因机器而失业的农场工人听来,一定觉得是空话——机器执行常规任务的效率,远非人力所能及。关于生产率提升的另一面,我们将在本节稍后部分进行探讨。但眼下,让我们先转向三个对伯克希尔子公司产生了重大影响的效率提升案例。类似的转变,在美国商界早已十分普遍。
Productivity and Prosperity Earlier, I told you how our partners at Kraft Heinz root out inefficiencies, thereby increasing output per hour of employment. That kind of improvement has been the secret sauce of America’s remarkable gains in living standards since the nation’s founding in 1776. Unfortunately, the label of “secret” is appropriate: Too few Americans fully grasp the linkage between productivity and prosperity. To see that connection, let’s look first at the country’s most dramatic example – farming – and later examine three Berkshire-specific areas. In 1900, America’s civilian work force numbered 28 million. Of these, 11 million, a staggering 40% of the total, worked in farming. The leading crop then, as now, was corn. About 90 million acres were devoted to its production and the yield per acre was 30 bushels, for a total output of 2.7 billion bushels annually. Then came the tractor and one innovation after another that revolutionized such keys to farm productivity as planting, harvesting, irrigation, fertilization and seed quality. Today, we devote about 85 million acres to corn. Productivity, however, has improved yields to more than 150 bushels per acre, for an annual output of 13-14 billion bushels. Farmers have made similar gains with other products. Increased yields, though, are only half the story: The huge increases in physical output have been accompanied by a dramatic reduction in the number of farm laborers (“human input”). Today about three million people work on farms, a tiny 2% of our 158-million-person work force. Thus, improved farming methods have allowed tens of millions of present-day workers to utilize their time and talents in other endeavors, a reallocation of human resources that enables Americans of today to enjoy huge quantities of non-farm goods and services they would otherwise lack. It’s easy to look back over the 115-year span and realize how extraordinarily beneficial agricultural innovations have been – not just for farmers but, more broadly, for our entire society. We would not have anything close to the America we now know had we stifled those improvements in productivity. (It was fortunate that horses couldn’t vote.) On a day-to-day basis, however, talk of the “greater good” must have rung hollow to farm hands who lost their jobs to machines that performed routine tasks far more efficiently than humans ever could. We will examine this flip-side to productivity gains later in this section. For the moment, however, let’s move on to three stories of efficiencies that have had major consequences for Berkshire subsidiaries. Similar transformations have been commonplace throughout American business. ‹
1947 年,二战刚结束不久,美国劳动力总数为 4400 万人,其中约 135 万人受雇于铁路业。那一年,一级铁路运送的货运周转量为 6550 亿吨英里。到 2014 年,一级铁路的货运周转量已达 1.85 万亿吨英里,增长 182%,用工却只剩 18.7 万人,比 1947 年减少了 86%。(其中一部分变化涉及客运人员,但裁员主要发生在货运一侧。)正是这惊人的生产率提升,让运送一吨英里货物的价格(经通胀调整后)自 1947 年以来下降了 55%,按当前美元计,每年为货主省下约 900 亿美元。还有一个惊人的数字:假如今天运货所需的人手和 1947 年一样多,要应付当下的运量,我们得雇上三百多万名铁路工人。(当然,那样的用工规模会把运费抬得极高,结果接近今天这样的运量根本跑不起来。)
In 1947, shortly after the end of World War II, the American workforce totaled 44 million. About 1.35 million workers were employed in the railroad industry. The revenue ton-miles of freight moved by Class I railroads that year totaled 655 billion. By 2014, Class I railroads carried 1.85 trillion ton-miles, an increase of 182%, while employing only 187,000 workers, a reduction of 86% since 1947. (Some of this change involved passenger-related employees, but most of the workforce reduction came on the freight side.) As a result of this staggering improvement in productivity, the inflation-adjusted price for moving a ton-mile of freight has fallen by 55% since 1947, a drop saving shippers about $90 billion annually in current dollars. Another startling statistic: If it took as many people now to move freight as it did in 1947, we would need well over three million railroad workers to handle present volumes. (Of course, that level of employment would raise freight charges by a lot; consequently, nothing close to today’s volume would actually move.)
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我们自家的 BNSF 公司成立于 1995 年,由伯灵顿北方铁路与圣塔菲铁路合并而成。1996 年,即合并后的第一个完整运营年度,4.5 万名员工完成了 4.11 亿吨英里的货物运输。去年,相应的数字是 7.02 亿吨英里(同比增长 71%)和 4.7 万名员工(仅增长 4%)。这一生产率的显著提升,令股东和托运人双双受益。BNSF 的安全记录也在改善:每 20 万工时可记录工伤事故数从 1996 年的 2.04 起,至今已下降超过 50%,至 0.95 起。
Our own BNSF was formed in 1995 by a merger between Burlington Northern and Santa Fe. In 1996, the merged company’s first full year of operation, 411 million ton-miles of freight were transported by 45,000 employees. Last year the comparable figures were 702 million ton-miles (plus 71%) and 47,000 employees (plus only 4%). That dramatic gain in productivity benefits both owners and shippers. Safety at BNSF has improved as well: Reportable injuries were 2.04 per 200,000 man-hours in 1996 and have since fallen more than 50% to 0.95. ‹
一个多世纪前,汽车问世,围着它长出了一个为汽车和车主承保的行业。起初,这类业务由传统的保险代理机构承接——就是那些经营火险的机构。这种以代理为中心的模式,佣金和其他承保费用居高不下,一块钱保费里约有 40 美分被它们吃掉。当时,实力雄厚的地方代理机构占据上风,因为它们代理多家保险公司,谈佣金时能让这家跟那家互相压价。卡特尔式的定价盛行,各方都活得不错——唯独消费者例外。后来,一点美国式的机灵劲儿登场了:伊利诺伊州默纳镇的农民 G. J. 麦切尔想出一个主意——组建一支只卖一家公司产品的专属销售队伍。他给这个“孩子”取名 State Farm Mutual。这家公司砍掉佣金和费用——从而得以压低价格——很快壮大成一方霸主。几十年来,无论车险还是房主险,State Farm 的销量都遥遥领先。同样走直销路线的 Allstate,长期屈居第二。State Farm 和 Allstate 的承保费用率都在 25% 上下。到 20 世纪 30 年代初,又冒出一个竞争者:类似互助制的美国军人保险协会(USAA),以直接面向客户的方式,专为军官承保车险。这一营销创新,源于军人的一个需求——他们要一份能随自己在各基地间调动而始终有效的保险。这种生意,地方代理机构没什么兴趣,它们要的是常住居民带来的稳定续保。恰好,USAA 的直销方式成本比 State Farm 和 Allstate 还低,于是给了客户更大的实惠。这让 USAA 的两名员工里奥和莉莲·古德温萌生了一个念头:把直销模式的目标客户从军官扩展到更广的人群。1936 年,他们以 10 万美元的资本,创办了政府雇员保险公司(后来把这一长串名字压缩成了 GEICO)。头一个完整年度,也就是 1937 年,这家羽翼未丰的公司做了 23.8 万美元的车险业务。去年,GEICO 做到了 226 亿美元,是 USAA 的两倍多。(早起的鸟儿有虫吃,可第二只老鼠才吃得到奶酪。)2015 年,GEICO 的承保费用率为保费的 14.7%,只有 USAA 这一家大公司比它更低。(GEICO 的效率与 USAA 不相上下,只是在推动增长的广告上花得多得多。)凭着低成本带来的价格优势,GEICO 几年前从 Allstate 手里夺下车险第二的位置,也就不足为奇了。GEICO 还在一步步逼近 State Farm,尽管后者的销量仍远在我们之上。2030 年 8 月 30 日——我 100 岁生日那天——我打算宣布 GEICO 已登上头把交椅。请在日历上做好记号。GEICO 雇了约 3.4 万人,服务 1400 万名保单持有人。若换成代理制,要服务同样多的保单持有人得用多少人,我只能靠猜。但我估计,这个数字至少是 6 万——既包括保险公司自身所需的直接雇员,也包括支撑各代理机构所需的人手。
A bit more than a century ago, the auto was invented, and around it formed an industry that insures cars and their drivers. Initially, this business was written through traditional insurance agencies – the kind dealing in fire insurance. This agency-centric approach included high commissions and other underwriting expenses that consumed about 40¢ of the premium dollar. Strong local agencies were then in the driver’s seat because they represented multiple insurers and could play one company off against another when commissions were being negotiated. Cartel-like pricing prevailed, and all involved were doing fine – except for the consumer. And then some American ingenuity came into play: G. J. Mecherle, a farmer from Merna, Illinois, came up with the idea of a captive sales force that would sell the insurance products of only a single company. His baby was christened State Farm Mutual. The company cut commissions and expenses – moves that permitted lower prices – and soon became a powerhouse. For many decades, State Farm has been the runaway volume leader in both auto and homeowner’s insurance. Allstate, which also operated with a direct distribution model, was long the runner-up. Both State Farm and Allstate have had underwriting expenses of about 25%. In the early 1930s, another contender, United Services Auto Association (“USAA”), a mutual-like company, was writing auto insurance for military officers on a direct-to-the-customer basis. This marketing innovation rose from a need that military personnel had to buy insurance that would stay with them as they moved from base to base. That was business of little interest to local insurance agencies, which wanted the steady renewals that came from permanent residents. The direct distribution method of USAA, as it happened, incurred lower costs than those enjoyed by State Farm and Allstate and therefore delivered an even greater bargain to customers. That made Leo and Lillian Goodwin, employees of USAA, dream of broadening the target market for its direct distribution model beyond military officers. In 1936, starting with $100,000 of capital, they incorporated Government Employees Insurance Co. (later compressing this mouthful to GEICO). Their fledgling did $238,000 of auto insurance business in 1937, its first full year. Last year GEICO did $22.6 billion, more than double the volume of USAA. (Though the early bird gets the worm, the second mouse gets the cheese.) GEICO’s underwriting expenses in 2015 were 14.7% of premiums, with USAA being the only large company to achieve a lower percentage. (GEICO is fully as efficient as USAA but spends considerably more on advertising aimed at promoting growth.) With the price advantage GEICO’s low costs allow, it’s not surprising that several years ago the company seized the number two spot in auto insurance from Allstate. GEICO is also gaining ground on State Farm, though it is still far ahead of us in volume. On August 30, 2030 – my 100th birthday – I plan to announce that GEICO has taken over the top spot. Mark your calendar. GEICO employs about 34,000 people to serve its 14 million policyholders. I can only guess at the workforce it would require to serve a similar number of policyholders under the agency system. I believe, however, that the number would be at least 60,000, a combination of what the insurer would need in direct employment and the personnel required at supporting agencies.
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在电力公用事业这门生意上,我们的伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(BHE)正身处一个不断变化的经济模式之中。从前,一家地方电力公司能否活下去,并不取决于它的效率。事实上,一家“邋遢”经营的公司,财务上也照样过得去。这是因为公用事业公司往往是某项必需品的独家供应商,且被允许按一个能让它就所投资本拿到规定回报率的水平来定价。业内有个笑话:公用事业是唯一一门只要重新装修一下老板办公室就能自动多赚钱的生意。有些 CEO 也确实照此办事。如今,这一切都在改变。社会已经认定,由联邦补贴的风能和太阳能发电符合国家的长远利益。联邦税收抵免被用来推行这一政策,这份扶持让可再生能源在某些地区具备了价格竞争力。这些税收抵免,或政府为可再生能源提供的其他强制性扶助,最终可能侵蚀在位公用事业公司的经济根基,尤其是那些高成本的运营商。BHE 长期以来对效率的看重——即便在无需靠它去挣得核定收益的年头也从不松懈——让我们在今天的市场上格外有竞争力(更要紧的是,在明天的市场上同样如此)。BHE 于 1999 年收购了爱荷华州的公用事业公司。收购前一年,那家公司雇有 3700 人,年发电 1900 万兆瓦时;如今我们用 3500 人,发电 2900 万兆瓦时。效率的这一大跃升,让我们得以连续 16 年不涨电价,而同期全行业的电价上涨了 44%。我们这家爱荷华公司的安全成绩同样出色:2015 年每百名员工工伤 0.79 起,而我们买下它前一年,前任东家的数字是 7.0。2006 年,BHE 收购了主营俄勒冈和犹他两州的 PacifiCorp。收购前一年,PacifiCorp 雇有 6750 人,发电 5260 万兆瓦时;去年的数字是 5700 人和 5630 万兆瓦时。这里的安全成绩也大为改观,每百名员工事故率从 2005 年的 3.4 起降到 2015 年的 0.85 起。论安全,BHE 如今稳居行业前十百分位。正是这些出色的表现,解释了为什么每当 BHE 提出收购某个辖区内的公用事业公司时,监管机构都乐见其成:他们知道这家公司会把运营做得高效、安全、可靠,还会带着用不完的资本来为任何切实可行的项目提供资金。(自我们控股以来,BHE 从未向伯克希尔派过一分钱股息。论对再投资的投入度,美国没有哪家投资者持股的公用事业公司比得上 BHE。)
In its electric utility business, our Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) operates within a changing economic model. Historically, the survival of a local electric company did not depend on its efficiency. In fact, a “sloppy” operation could do just fine financially. That’s because utilities were usually the sole supplier of a needed product and were allowed to price at a level that gave them a prescribed return upon the capital they employed. The joke in the industry was that a utility was the only business that would automatically earn more money by redecorating the boss’s office. And some CEOs ran things accordingly. That’s all changing. Today, society has decided that federally-subsidized wind and solar generation is in our country’s long-term interest. Federal tax credits are used to implement this policy, support that makes renewables price-competitive in certain geographies. Those tax credits, or other government-mandated help for renewables, may eventually erode the economics of the incumbent utility, particularly if it is a high-cost operator. BHE’s long-established emphasis on efficiency – even when the company didn’t need it to attain authorized earnings – leaves us particularly competitive in today’s market (and, more important, in tomorrow’s as well). BHE acquired its Iowa utility in 1999. In the year before, that utility employed 3,700 people and produced 19 million megawatt-hours of electricity. Now we employ 3,500 people and produce 29 million megawatthours. That major increase in efficiency allowed us to operate without a rate increase for 16 years, a period during which industry rates increased 44%. The safety record of our Iowa utility is also outstanding. It had .79 injuries per 100 employees in 2015 compared to the rate of 7.0 experienced by the previous owner in the year before we bought the operation. In 2006 BHE purchased PacifiCorp, which operated primarily in Oregon and Utah. The year before our purchase PacifiCorp employed 6,750 people and produced 52.6 million megawatt-hours. Last year the numbers were 5,700 employees and 56.3 million megawatt-hours. Here, too, safety improved dramatically, with the accident-rate-per-100-employees falling from 3.4 in 2005 to .85 in 2015. In safety, BHE now ranks in the industry’s top decile. Those outstanding performances explain why BHE is welcomed by regulators when it proposes to buy a utility in their jurisdiction. The regulators know the company will run an efficient, safe and reliable operation and also arrive with unlimited capital to fund whatever projects make sense. (BHE has never paid a dividend to Berkshire since we assumed ownership. No investor-owned utility in America comes close to matching BHE’s enthusiasm for reinvestment.)
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我刚刚一一列出的这些生产率提升——以及美国取得的无数其他进步——给社会带来了了不起的福祉。正因如此,我们的国民作为一个整体,已经并将继续在所享有的商品和服务上获得重大改善。但这幅图景也有它的另一面。其一,近些年的生产率提升,好处大多落进了富人的口袋。其二,生产率提升常常伴随剧烈动荡:当创新或新的效率把资本和劳动的世界搅得天翻地覆时,两者都可能付出惨重代价。对资本家(无论是私人业主还是浩浩荡荡的公众股东),我们大可不必掉泪。照看好自己是他们分内的事。既然明智的决策能给投资者带来丰厚回报,那么错误的选择所招致的损失,也理该由这些人承担。何况,只要广泛分散、稳稳持有,投资者终究会兴旺:在美国,赢家投资的收益,向来远远盖过那些烂投资造成的亏损。(整个 20 世纪,道琼斯工业平均指数——某种意义上的一只指数基金——从 66 点一路飚到 11,497 点,其间它的成分公司还在不停地派发越来越多的股息。)
The productivity gains that I’ve just spelled out – and countless others that have been achieved in America – have delivered awesome benefits to society. That’s the reason our citizens, as a whole, have enjoyed – and will continue to enjoy – major gains in the goods and services they receive. To this thought there are offsets. First, the productivity gains achieved in recent years have largely benefitted the wealthy. Second, productivity gains frequently cause upheaval: Both capital and labor can pay a terrible price when innovation or new efficiencies upend their worlds. We need shed no tears for the capitalists (whether they be private owners or an army of public shareholders). It’s their job to take care of themselves. When large rewards can flow to investors from good decisions, these parties should not be spared the losses produced by wrong choices. Moreover, investors who diversify widely and simply sit tight with their holdings are certain to prosper: In America, gains from winning investments have always far more than offset the losses from clunkers. (During the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrial Average – an index fund of sorts – soared from 66 to 11,497, with its component companies all the while paying ever-increasing dividends.)
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一名长期受雇的工人面对的则是另一道算式。当创新与市场体系相互作用催生效率时,许多工人可能变得多余,他们的技能就此过时。有些人能在别处谋得体面的工作;对另一些人来说,这条路走不通。当低成本竞争把制鞋生产逼往亚洲时,我们曾经红火的德克斯特倒闭了,缅因州一个小镇上 1600 名员工因此失业。他们中许多人已过了能再学一门手艺的年纪。我们赔光了全部投资——这笔损失我们承受得起——可许多工人失去的是一份再也无从替代的生计。同样一幕,在我们最早那家新英格兰纺织厂里以慢镜头上演,它苦撑了 20 年才终告不支。举个令人心酸的例子,我们新贝德福德工厂里许多上了年纪的工人只会说葡萄牙语,几乎不懂英语,他们没有第二条退路。面对这类颠覆,答案不是去限制或取缔那些提升生产率的行动。假如我们当初硬性规定要让 1100 万人永远务农,美国人的日子绝不会过得像今天这么好。解法是一整套安全网,让那些愿意工作、却因市场之力而被判定技能不值钱的人也能过上体面的生活。(我个人赞成改革并扩大劳动所得税抵免,力求让美国不亏待每一个愿意工作的人。)为绝大多数美国人换来日益增长的繁荣,其代价绝不应是让不幸者陷入赤贫。
A long-employed worker faces a different equation. When innovation and the market system interact to produce efficiencies, many workers may be rendered unnecessary, their talents obsolete. Some can find decent employment elsewhere; for others, that is not an option. When low-cost competition drove shoe production to Asia, our once-prosperous Dexter operation folded, putting 1,600 employees in a small Maine town out of work. Many were past the point in life at which they could learn another trade. We lost our entire investment, which we could afford, but many workers lost a livelihood they could not replace. The same scenario unfolded in slow-motion at our original New England textile operation, which struggled for 20 years before expiring. Many older workers at our New Bedford plant, as a poignant example, spoke Portuguese and knew little, if any, English. They had no Plan B. The answer in such disruptions is not the restraining or outlawing of actions that increase productivity. Americans would not be living nearly as well as we do if we had mandated that 11 million people should forever be employed in farming. The solution, rather, is a variety of safety nets aimed at providing a decent life for those who are willing to work but find their specific talents judged of small value because of market forces. (I personally favor a reformed and expanded Earned Income Tax Credit that would try to make sure America works for those willing to work.) The price of achieving ever-increasing prosperity for the great majority of Americans should not be penury for the unfortunate.
重大风险
Important Risks
和所有上市公司一样,SEC 要求我们每年在 10-K 报告里罗列“风险因素”。可我实在想不起,读 10-K 的“风险”那一节何曾帮我看懂过一门生意。这倒不是说列出的风险不真实,而是要紧的风险通常早已尽人皆知。除此之外,10-K 的风险清单对下面三件事几乎帮不上忙:(1)那桩威胁事件实际发生的概率;(2)一旦发生,损失有多大;以及(3)可能的亏损会在何时到来。一个 50 年后才会浮出水面的威胁,对社会或许是个问题,对今天的投资者却不是财务问题。伯克希尔涉足的行业比我所知的任何公司都多,每一门生意都自带一套潜在的难题与机遇。这些容易罗列,却难以评估:查理、我,还有我们各位 CEO,在盘算这些可能性发生的概率、时机及其带来的成本(或好处)时,常常大相径庭。举几个例子。先说一个明摆着的威胁:BNSF 和其他铁路一样,未来十年必将失去可观的煤炭运量。将来某个时点——但在我看来还很遥远——GEICO 的保费规模可能因无人驾驶汽车而萎缩,这同样可能殃及我们的汽车经销业务。我们纸质报纸的发行量还会继续下滑,这一点我们收购时早有预料。到目前为止,可再生能源帮衬了我们的公用事业业务,但这种情形可能生变,尤其是储电能力若有实质性突破。线上零售则威胁着我们零售商及某些消费品牌的商业模式。这些不过是我们所面临负面可能中的一小撮——可即便是最漫不经心的商业新闻读者,也早已对它们了然于心。然而,这里没有一桩是伯克希尔长远福祉的命门。1965 年我们接手公司时,风险可以用一句话概括:“我们全部资本所系的北方纺织业务,注定要反复亏损,终将消亡。”可那并不是丧钟,我们只是随之调整。今后,我们还会这样调整下去。
We, like all public companies, are required by the SEC to annually catalog “risk factors” in our 10-K. I can’t remember, however, an instance when reading a 10-K’s “risk” section has helped me in evaluating a business. That’s not because the identified risks aren’t real. The truly important risks, however, are usually well known. Beyond that, a 10-K’s catalog of risks is seldom of aid in assessing: (1) the probability of the threatening event actually occurring; (2) the range of costs if it does occur; and (3) the timing of the possible loss. A threat that will only surface 50 years from now may be a problem for society, but it is not a financial problem for today’s investor. Berkshire operates in more industries than any company I know of. Each of our pursuits has its own array of possible problems and opportunities. Those are easy to list but hard to evaluate: Charlie, I and our various CEOs often differ in a very major way in our calculation of the likelihood, the timing and the cost (or benefit) that may result from these possibilities. Let me mention just a few examples. To begin with an obvious threat, BNSF, along with other railroads, is certain to lose significant coal volume over the next decade. At some point in the future – though not, in my view, for a long time – GEICO’s premium volume may shrink because of driverless cars. This development could hurt our auto dealerships as well. Circulation of our print newspapers will continue to fall, a certainty we allowed for when purchasing them. To date, renewables have helped our utility operation but that could change, particularly if storage capabilities for electricity materially improve. Online retailing threatens the business model of our retailers and certain of our consumer brands. These potentialities are just a few of the negative possibilities facing us – but even the most casual follower of business news has long been aware of them. None of these problems, however, is crucial to Berkshire’s long-term well-being. When we took over the company in 1965, its risks could have been encapsulated in a single sentence: “The northern textile business in which all of our capital resides is destined for recurring losses and will eventually disappear.” That development, however, was no death knell. We simply adapted. And we will continue to do so.
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每一天,伯克希尔的经理们都在琢磨如何在这个变动不居的世界里竞争得更好。同样地,查理和我全神贯注于一件事:把源源不断的资金投向何处。在这一点上,我们比那些只做单一行业的公司占尽优势,后者的选择要窄得多。我坚信,伯克希尔拥有足够的资金、人才和文化,去闯过我上面列举的种种逆境——以及更多逆境——并以更强的盈利能力脱身而出。不过,有一种明确、当下且长存的危险,是查理和我对之无能为力的。这个威胁伯克希尔的东西,也是我们全体国民面临的头号威胁:一场针对美国的“成功”(按施袭者的标准而言)网络、生物、核或化学袭击。这份风险,伯克希尔与所有美国企业共担。在任何一年,这种大规模毁灭发生的概率大概都很小。自我送出那份头版宣告美国投下第一颗原子弹的《华盛顿邮报》起,已经过去七十多年了。此后我们有过几次险象环生,但都躲过了灾难性的毁灭。这份结果,得谢我们的政府——也得谢运气!然而,短期里的极小概率,拉长到足够长的时间便近乎必然。(若某事件在某一年发生的概率是三十分之一,那么它在一个世纪里至少发生一次的概率是 96.6%。)更坏的消息是,永远会有人、有组织、甚至有国家,一心想给我国造成最大的伤害,而在我这一生里,他们能用的手段呈指数级增长。“创新”自有它阴暗的一面。美国企业或它们的投资者,都无法卸下这份风险。一旦美国境内发生导致大规模毁灭的事件,几乎所有股权投资的价值都将化为乌有。没有人知道“劫后的次日”会是什么模样。不过在我看来,爱因斯坦 1949 年的那句评断至今仍不过时:“我不知道第三次世界大战会用什么武器来打,但第四次世界大战肯定是用棍棒和石头。”
Every day Berkshire managers are thinking about how they can better compete in an always-changing world. Just as vigorously, Charlie and I focus on where a steady stream of funds should be deployed. In that respect, we possess a major advantage over one-industry companies, whose options are far more limited. I firmly believe that Berkshire has the money, talent and culture to plow through the sort of adversities I’ve itemized above – and many more – and to emerge with ever-greater earning power. There is, however, one clear, present and enduring danger to Berkshire against which Charlie and I are powerless. That threat to Berkshire is also the major threat our citizenry faces: a “successful” (as defined by the aggressor) cyber, biological, nuclear or chemical attack on the United States. That is a risk Berkshire shares with all of American business. The probability of such mass destruction in any given year is likely very small. It’s been more than 70 years since I delivered a Washington Post newspaper headlining the fact that the United States had dropped the first atomic bomb. Subsequently, we’ve had a few close calls but avoided catastrophic destruction. We can thank our government – and luck! – for this result. Nevertheless, what’s a small probability in a short period approaches certainty in the longer run. (If there is only one chance in thirty of an event occurring in a given year, the likelihood of it occurring at least once in a century is 96.6%.) The added bad news is that there will forever be people and organizations and perhaps even nations that would like to inflict maximum damage on our country. Their means of doing so have increased exponentially during my lifetime. “Innovation” has its dark side. There is no way for American corporations or their investors to shed this risk. If an event occurs in the U.S. that leads to mass devastation, the value of all equity investments will almost certainly be decimated. No one knows what “the day after” will look like. I think, however, that Einstein’s 1949 appraisal remains apt: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
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我写这一节,是因为今年的股东大会要审议一项关于气候变化的代理提案。提案方希望我们出具一份报告,说明气候变化可能给我们的保险业务带来哪些危险,并阐述我们如何应对这些威胁。在我看来,气候变化极有可能给这颗星球带来重大麻烦。我说“极有可能”而非“确定”,是因为我没什么科学天分,又清楚记得当年大多数“专家”对千年虫的骇人预言。然而,若某个后果看上去确有发生的可能,而及早行动哪怕只有一线希望能化解这场危险,那么无论是我还是任何人,非要等到对即将降临的巨大损害有百分之百的把握才肯动手,便是愚蠢的。这个问题与帕斯卡关于上帝是否存在的赌注颇有相似之处。各位或许记得,帕斯卡论证说:哪怕上帝确实存在的概率微乎其微,按“他存在”行事也是理性的,因为回报可能是无限的,而不信则要冒永堕痛苦的风险。同理,只要地球正滑向一场名副其实的大灾难的概率仅有 1%,而拖延就意味着越过那道无法回头的关口,那么此刻按兵不动便是鲁莽。不妨称其为诺亚法则:如果方舟可能是活命所必需,那就今天动手建造,任凭眼下的天空多么万里无云。代理提案的发起方认为伯克希尔尤其受气候变化的威胁,这可以理解,因为我们是一家承保各类风险的大型保险公司。发起方或许担心,天气变化会让财产损失暴涨。倘若我们签的是十年、二十年期的固定价格保单,这份担忧倒可能确有道理。但保险合同惯例是一年一签、每年重新定价,以反映不断变化的风险敞口。损失可能性一旦上升,很快就会转化为保费的上涨。
I am writing this section because we have a proxy proposal regarding climate change to consider at this year’s annual meeting. The sponsor would like us to provide a report on the dangers that this change might present to our insurance operation and explain how we are responding to these threats. It seems highly likely to me that climate change poses a major problem for the planet. I say “highly likely” rather than “certain” because I have no scientific aptitude and remember well the dire predictions of most “experts” about Y2K. It would be foolish, however, for me or anyone to demand 100% proof of huge forthcoming damage to the world if that outcome seemed at all possible and if prompt action had even a small chance of thwarting the danger. This issue bears a similarity to Pascal’s Wager on the Existence of God. Pascal, it may be recalled, argued that if there were only a tiny probability that God truly existed, it made sense to behave as if He did because the rewards could be infinite whereas the lack of belief risked eternal misery. Likewise, if there is only a 1% chance the planet is heading toward a truly major disaster and delay means passing a point of no return, inaction now is foolhardy. Call this Noah’s Law: If an ark may be essential for survival, begin building it today, no matter how cloudless the skies appear. It’s understandable that the sponsor of the proxy proposal believes Berkshire is especially threatened by climate change because we are a huge insurer, covering all sorts of risks. The sponsor may worry that property losses will skyrocket because of weather changes. And such worries might, in fact, be warranted if we wrote ten- or twenty-year policies at fixed prices. But insurance policies are customarily written for one year and repriced annually to reflect changing exposures. Increased possibilities of loss translate promptly into increased premiums.
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回想 1951 年,我头一回对 GEICO 燃起热情。当时公司每份保单的平均损失成本一年约 30 美元。设想一下,若我那时预言,到 2015 年每份保单的损失成本会涨到约 1000 美元,你会作何反应?你或许会问:损失这样一路飙升,岂不是要酿成大祸?答案是:不会。这些年来,通胀让修车和事故致伤的治疗成本大幅攀升。但这些上涨的成本,很快就被上涨的保费及时覆盖了。于是,矛盾的是,损失成本的节节走高,反倒让保险公司变得更有价值。倘若成本一直没变,伯克希尔如今拥有的将是一家年保费收入 6 亿美元的车险公司,而不是一家 230 亿美元的公司。到目前为止,气候变化并没有让飓风或其他受保的天气事件变得更频繁或代价更高昂。正因如此,近年来美国巨灾再保险费率一路走低,我们也据此退出了这门业务。如果巨灾变得更昂贵、更频繁,对伯克希尔保险业务很可能产生的影响——尽管远非板上钉钉——是让它规模更大、盈利更高。你作为一个公民,因气候变化而夜不能寐,这情有可原;作为低洼地带的房主,你或许该考虑搬家。但当你纯粹以一家大型保险公司股东的身份来考量时,气候变化不应出现在你的忧虑清单上。
Think back to 1951 when I first became enthused about GEICO. The company’s average loss-per-policy was then about $30 annually. Imagine your reaction if I had predicted then that in 2015 the loss costs would increase to about $1,000 per policy. Wouldn’t such skyrocketing losses prove disastrous, you might ask? Well, no. Over the years, inflation has caused a huge increase in the cost of repairing both the cars and the humans involved in accidents. But these increased costs have been promptly matched by increased premiums. So, paradoxically, the upward march in loss costs has made insurance companies far more valuable. If costs had remained unchanged, Berkshire would now own an auto insurer doing $600 million of business annually rather than one doing $23 billion. Up to now, climate change has not produced more frequent nor more costly hurricanes nor other weatherrelated events covered by insurance. As a consequence, U.S. super-cat rates have fallen steadily in recent years, which is why we have backed away from that business. If super-cats become costlier and more frequent, the likely – though far from certain – effect on Berkshire’s insurance business would be to make it larger and more profitable. As a citizen, you may understandably find climate change keeping you up nights. As a homeowner in a low-lying area, you may wish to consider moving. But when you are thinking only as a shareholder of a major insurer, climate change should not be on your list of worries.
股东大会
The Annual Meeting
查理和我总算下定决心,跨入了 21 世纪。今年我们的股东大会将全程向全球网络直播。观看直播只需在 4 月 30 日周六上午 9 点(美国中部夏令时)打开 https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream。雅虎的这场直播,会先用半小时采访我们的经理、董事和股东;随后 9 点半,查理和我开始回答提问。这个新安排有两重用意。第一,它或许能让到场人数持平或略有回落。去年逾 4 万人到场,创下纪录,已让我们不堪重负:除了世纪互联中心的主场馆很快坐满,我们连备用厅也塞满了,还溢出到隔壁奥马哈希尔顿酒店的两个大会议室。尽管 Airbnb 的房源大增,各大酒店仍一房难求。对于预算有限的访客,Airbnb 帮了很大的忙。启用网络直播的第二重理由更为要紧。查理 92 岁,我 85 岁。假如我们是你在一家小生意里的合伙人,受托打理店务,你总想时不时来瞧一眼,确认我们没有神游太虚才对。而股东们大可不必专程赶到奥马哈,来端详我们的气色、听我们的腔调。(在评价我们时请手下留情:体谅一下,我们就算在状态最好的时候,看着也没那么精神。)观众还能顺便观摩我们有助延年的食谱。会议期间,查理和我每人吞下的可乐、喜诗软糖和喜诗花生脆,足够满足一名 NFL 锋线球员一周的热量需求。很久以前我们就悟出一条基本真理:当你确实很饿——而且想继续饿下去——的时候,没什么比啃胡萝卜和西兰花更对味了。打算来现场的股东,最好在早上 7 点世纪互联中心开门时就到场,先逛起来。今年的欢庆活动仍由卡丽·索瓦操办。她上月底刚生了第二个孩子,但脚步丝毫没被拖慢。卡丽从容镇定、巧思迭出,最擅长让共事的人展现出最好的一面。协助她的,有来自全国各地的数百名伯克希尔员工,以及我们整个总部班子,人人都在出力,只为让这个周末对股东既好玩又长见识。
Charlie and I have finally decided to enter the 21st Century. Our annual meeting this year will be webcast worldwide in its entirety. To view the meeting, simply go to https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream at 9 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Saturday, April 30th. The Yahoo! webcast will begin with a half hour of interviews with managers, directors and shareholders. Then, at 9:30, Charlie and I will commence answering questions. This new arrangement will serve two purposes. First, it may level off or modestly decrease attendance at the meeting. Last year’s record of more than 40,000 attendees strained our capacity. In addition to quickly filling the CenturyLink Center’s main arena, we packed its overflow rooms and then spilled into two large meeting rooms at the adjoining Omaha Hilton. All major hotels were sold out notwithstanding Airbnb’s stepped-up presence. Airbnb was especially helpful for those visitors on limited budgets. Our second reason for initiating a webcast is more important. Charlie is 92, and I am 85. If we were partners with you in a small business, and were charged with running the place, you would want to look in occasionally to make sure we hadn’t drifted off into la-la land. Shareholders, in contrast, should not need to come to Omaha to monitor how we look and sound. (In making your evaluation, be kind: Allow for the fact that we didn’t look that impressive when we were at our best.) Viewers can also observe our life-prolonging diet. During the meeting, Charlie and I will each consume enough Coke, See’s fudge and See’s peanut brittle to satisfy the weekly caloric needs of an NFL lineman. Long ago we discovered a fundamental truth: There’s nothing like eating carrots and broccoli when you’re really hungry – and want to stay that way. Shareholders planning to attend the meeting should come at 7 a.m. when the doors open at CenturyLink Center and start shopping. Carrie Sova will again be in charge of the festivities. She had her second child late last month, but that did not slow her down. Carrie is unflappable, ingenious and expert at bringing out the best in those who work with her. She is aided by hundreds of Berkshire employees from around the country and by our entire home office crew as well, all of them pitching in to make the weekend fun and informative for our owners.
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去年我们延长了世纪互联中心的购物时段。销售额随之大涨——所以我们自然要沿用这个新时间表。4 月 29 日周五中午到下午 5 点可以购物,周六展台和店面则从早 7 点开到下午 4 点半。周六上午,我们要办第五届国际掷报大赛。靶子还是一座克莱顿房屋的门廊,离投掷线正好 35 英尺。我十几岁时——那是我唯一一次短暂涉足正经营生——大约送过 50 万份报纸,所以自认这游戏玩得相当好。来挑战我吧!让我出丑吧!杀杀我的威风!报纸厚 36 到 42 页,得你自己折好(不许用橡皮筋)。比赛 7 点 15 分开始,参赛者先试掷。投得最准的八位——四名 12 岁及以下、四名年长组——将在 7 点 45 分与我一较高下。年轻挑战者人人有奖;年长组则得赢了我才能把奖品抱回家。也别忘了去看看那座克莱顿房屋本身。售价 78,900 美元,完整安装到你提供的土地上。往年股东大会当天,我们都卖出了不少套。凯文·克莱顿会带着他的订单簿到场。上午 8 点半,将放映一部新的伯克希尔影片。一小时后,问答环节开场,一直持续到下午 3 点半(中途在世纪互联的小吃摊休息吃午饭)。稍事休息后,查理和我将于下午 3 点 45 分召开股东大会。这个业务环节通常只用半个小时左右,想抓紧最后时间购物的股东,尽可放心跳过。你们购物的场地,是紧邻会场、面积达 194,300 平方英尺的大厅,伯克希尔几十家子公司的产品都在此出售。见到众多亲自守着展台的伯克希尔经理,请向他们问好。也一定要去看看那套向所有子公司致敬的 BNSF 铁路模型,极为壮观,你的孩子(还有你自己!)都会为之着迷。今年大厅里会添置一件全新的特别展品:一台按真实大小制作的世界最大飞机发动机模型,精密铸件公司(PCC)为其制造了许多关键部件。这台发动机真机重约 20,000 磅,直径 10 英尺,长 22 英尺。会场上这台被剖开的模型,能让你把许多为你的航班提供动力的 PCC 部件看个真切。我们的跑鞋公司 Brooks,今年又会在会上推出一款特别纪念鞋。买上一双,周日穿着它来跑我们第四届“伯克希尔 5 公里跑”——早上 8 点从世纪互联中心起跑。参赛详情会写进随会议凭证一并寄给你的《访客指南》里。参赛者会发现,自己将与许多伯克希尔的经理、董事和同事并肩奔跑。(不过查理和我会睡个懒觉;软糖和花生脆实在消受不起。)参与 5 公里跑的人数年年增长。帮我们再创一个纪录。购物区设有 GEICO 展位,由公司来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇。过来拿份报价吧。多数情况下,GEICO 都能给你一个股东折扣(通常 8%)。在我们经营的 51 个辖区中,有 44 个允许提供这项特别优惠。(补充一点:该折扣不能与你已有的其他折扣叠加,例如某些团体折扣。)带上你现有保单的详细信息,比比我们的价格。我们能替你们中的许多人省下实实在在的钱。省下的钱,就花在我们别的产品上吧。
Last year we increased the number of hours available for shopping at the CenturyLink. Sales skyrocketed – so, naturally, we will stay with the new schedule. On Friday, April 29th you can shop between noon and 5 p.m., and on Saturday exhibits and stores will be open from 7 a.m. until 4:30 p.m. On Saturday morning, we will have our fifth International Newspaper Tossing Challenge. Our target will again be a Clayton Home porch, located precisely 35 feet from the throwing line. When I was a teenager – in my one brief flirtation with honest labor – I delivered about 500,000 papers. So I think I’m pretty good at this game. Challenge me! Humiliate me! Knock me down a peg! The papers will run 36 to 42 pages, and you must fold them yourself (no rubber bands allowed). The competition begins at 7:15, when contestants will make preliminary tosses. The eight throws judged most accurate – four made by contestants 12 or under, and four made by the older set – will compete against me at 7:45. The young challengers will each receive a prize. But the older ones will have to beat me to take anything home. And be sure to check out the Clayton home itself. It can be purchased for $78,900, fully installed on land you provide. In past years, we’ve made many sales on the meeting day. Kevin Clayton will be on hand with his order book. At 8:30 a.m., a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (including a break for lunch at CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30 p.m. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45 p.m. This business session typically lasts only a half hour or so and can safely be skipped by those craving a little last-minute shopping. Your venue for shopping will be the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting and in which products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries will be for sale. Say hello to the many Berkshire managers who will be captaining their exhibits. And be sure to view the terrific BNSF railroad layout that salutes all of our subsidiaries. Your children (and you!) will be enchanted with it. We will have a new and very special exhibit in the hall this year: a full-size model of the world’s largest aircraft engine, for which Precision Castparts makes many key components. The real engines weigh about 20,000 pounds and are ten feet in diameter and 22 feet in length. The bisected model at the meeting will give you a good look at many PCC components that help power your flights. Brooks, our running-shoe company, will again have a special commemorative shoe to offer at the meeting. After you purchase a pair, wear them on Sunday at our fourth annual “Berkshire 5K,” an 8 a.m. race starting at the CenturyLink. Full details for participating will be included in the Visitor’s Guide that will be sent to you with your meeting credentials. Entrants in the race will find themselves running alongside many of Berkshire’s managers, directors and associates. (Charlie and I, however, will sleep in; the fudge and peanut brittle take their toll.) Participation in the 5K grows every year. Help us set another record. A GEICO booth in the shopping area will be staffed by a number of the company’s top counselors from around the country. Stop by for a quote. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another discount, such as that available to certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out our price. We can save many of you real money. Spend the savings on our other products.
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务必去“书虫”书店逛逛。那里会展出约 35 种图书和 DVD,其中有几本新书。安迪·基尔帕特里克将介绍他的伯克希尔大全最新版(并乐意为你签名),这本书包罗万象,共 1,304 页,重 9.8 磅。(我给这本书写的推荐语是:“薄得离谱。”)也请看看彼得·贝弗林的新书。彼得多年来一直是伯克希尔的敏锐观察者。我们还将推出一本新增 20 页的伯克希尔 50 周年纪念册,这本纪念册在去年的股东大会上售出了 12,000 册。此后,卡丽和我又发掘出一些我们认为引人入胜的新材料,比如格罗弗·克利夫兰写给他的朋友、时任《布法罗新闻》出版人爱德华·巴特勒的几封极为私人的信件。原版内容未做任何更改或删减,售价仍为 20 美元。查理和我将共同在 100 册上签名,这 100 册将随机混入大会上出售的 5,000 册中。我的朋友菲尔·比尤斯写了一本自传《蹒跚涉水》,记录了他在大都会通讯公司的生涯,并讲述了许多关于公司领导人汤姆·墨菲和丹·伯克的故事。这对搭档,无论是在他们所取得的成就,还是行事方式上,都是查理和我平生仅见的最佳管理二人组。你一生中成为什么样的人,很大程度上取决于你选择钦佩和效仿的对象。从汤姆·墨菲开始,你便再不需要第二个榜样。最后,杰里米·米勒撰写了《沃伦·巴菲特的基本原则》一书,这本书将在股东大会上首发。米勒先生对巴菲特合伙公司的运作进行了极为出色的研究和剖析,并阐释了伯克希尔的文化如何从其合伙公司起源演化至今。如果你对投资理论与实践着迷,一定会喜欢这本书。本报告随附的委托书材料中有一份说明,介绍了如何取得参加大会及其他活动所需的凭证。逢伯克希尔周末,航空公司有时会趁机大幅提价。如果你从远方赶来,不妨比较一下飞往堪萨斯城和奥马哈的机票费用。两市之间的车程约为 2.5 小时,飞到堪萨斯城或许能为你省下一大笔钱,特别是如果你原本就计划在奥马哈租车的话。一对夫妇省下的钱可能达到 1,000 美元甚至更多。把这笔钱花在我们这儿吧。内布拉斯加家具城坐落于 Dodge 街与 Pacific 街之间的 72 街,占地 77 英亩,我们将再次推出“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。去年在包含股东大会的那一周,该店的营业额创下了 44,239,493 美元的纪录。你把这个数字跟任何一位零售商讲,他都不会相信。(内布拉斯加家具城奥马哈店的平常一周营业额约为 900 万美元,该店是全美销量最高的家居用品店,仅次于我们新开的达拉斯店。)要在内布拉斯加家具城享受伯克希尔折扣,你必须在 4 月 26 日(周二)至 5 月 2 日(周一)之间(含首尾两日)购物,并出示你的参会凭证。该时段内的特别定价,甚至适用于几家通常对打折有铁定禁令的知名厂商的产品,但本着我们股东周末的精神,它们破例为你开了绿灯。我们感谢它们的配合。在“伯克希尔周末”期间,内布拉斯加家具城的营业时间为:周一至周五上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周六上午 10 点至晚上 9 点 30 分,周日上午 10 点至晚上 8 点。周六下午 5 点 30 分至晚上 8 点,内布拉斯加家具城将举办一场野餐会,诚邀各位光临。在波仙珠宝,我们将再次举办两场仅限股东参加的活动。第一场是 4 月 29 日(周五)晚上 6 点至 9 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是主要盛会,将于 5 月 1 日(周日)上午 9 点至下午 4 点举行。周六,我们将营业至晚上 6 点。在去年的周五至周日这段时间里,波仙珠宝每营业 15 秒就开出一张销售小票。
Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry about 35 books and DVDs, among them a couple of new titles. Andy Kilpatrick will introduce (and be glad to sign) the latest edition of his all-encompassing coverage of Berkshire. It’s 1,304 pages and weighs 9.8 pounds. (My blurb for the book: “Ridiculously skimpy.”) Check out Peter Bevelin’s new book as well. Peter has long been a keen observer of Berkshire. We will also have a new, 20-page-longer edition of Berkshire’s 50-year commemorative book that at last year’s meeting sold 12,000 copies. Since then, Carrie and I have uncovered additional material that we find fascinating, such as some very personal letters sent by Grover Cleveland to Edward Butler, his friend and the thenpublisher of The Buffalo News. Nothing from the original edition has been changed or eliminated, and the price remains $20. Charlie and I will jointly sign 100 copies that will be randomly placed among the 5,000 available for sale at the meeting. My friend, Phil Beuth, has written Limping on Water, an autobiography that chronicles his life at Capital Cities Communications and tells you a lot about its leaders, Tom Murphy and Dan Burke. These two were the best managerial duo – both in what they accomplished and how they did it – that Charlie and I ever witnessed. Much of what you become in life depends on whom you choose to admire and copy. Start with Tom Murphy, and you’ll never need a second exemplar. Finally, Jeremy Miller has written Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules, a book that will debut at the annual meeting. Mr. Miller has done a superb job of researching and dissecting the operation of Buffett Partnership Ltd. and of explaining how Berkshire’s culture has evolved from its BPL origin. If you are fascinated by investment theory and practice, you will enjoy this book. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to both the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City vs. Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2 1⁄ 2 hours, and it may be that Kansas City can save you significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. The savings for a couple could run to $1,000 or more. Spend that money with us. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year in the week encompassing the meeting, the store did a record $44,239,493 of business. If you repeat that figure to a retailer, he is not going to believe you. (An average week for NFM’s Omaha store – the highest-volume home furnishings store in the United States except for our new Dallas store – is about $9 million.) To obtain the Berkshire discount at NFM, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, April 26th and Monday, May 2nd inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. During “Berkshire Weekend” NFM will be open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday, 10 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. on Saturday and 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Sunday. From 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday, NFM is hosting a picnic to which you are all invited. At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, April 29th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 1st, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will remain open until 6 p.m. During last year’s Friday-Sunday stretch, the store wrote a sales ticket every 15 seconds that it was open.
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整个周末,波仙珠宝都将人山人海。因此,为方便各位,股东优惠价将从 4 月 25 日(周一)持续到 5 月 7 日(周六)。在此期间,请出示你的参会凭证或一份显示你持有我们股票的券商对账单,以表明你的股东身份。周日,在波仙珠宝店外的商场里,来自达拉斯的非凡魔术师诺曼·贝克将让旁观者目眩神迷。在楼上,我们将有鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格这两位世界顶级桥牌高手,于周日下午与我们的股东切磋牌技。我也会加入他们,并希望阿吉特和查理届时也能到场。我的朋友邢延华(Ariel Hsing)周日也会在商场里,在乒乓球台边接受挑战。我认识她时她才九岁,但即便那时,我也一分都赢不了她。如今她是普林斯顿大学大三学生,曾代表美国参加过 2012 年奥运会。如果你不怕自取其辱,下午 1 点起可以去找她一较高下。比尔·盖茨和我将打头阵,先试着消耗一下她的体力。戈拉特餐厅将于 5 月 1 日(周日)再次专门向伯克希尔股东开放,营业时间为下午 1 点至晚上 10 点。如需在戈拉特餐厅订位,请在 4 月 1 日当天(但不要提前)拨打 402-551-3733。至于另一家我钟爱的餐厅皮科洛,我很遗憾地告知大家,它已停业。
今年的问答环节依然由同样的三位财经记者主持,他们将向查理和我提出股东通过电子邮件提交给他们的问题。这三位记者及其电子邮件地址如下:卡罗尔·卢米斯,她那个时代最杰出的商业记者,电子邮箱是 [email protected];CNBC 的贝基·奎克,邮箱是 [email protected];以及《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金,邮箱是 [email protected]。每位记者将从所收到的问题中,挑选出他或她认为最有趣、最重要的六个问题。记者们告诉我,如果你想问题被选中,最好的做法是:提问简洁、不要拖到最后一刻才发送、内容与伯克希尔相关,并且在你发送的任何一封电子邮件中提的问题不要超过两个。(在邮件中,请告知记者,如果你的问题被提问,你是否希望提到你的名字。)另有一组问题,将由三位追踪伯克希尔的分析师提出。今年的保险专家是野村证券的克利夫·加兰特。涉及我们非保险业务的问题,则将由 Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb 的乔纳森·布兰特和晨星公司的格雷格·沃伦提出。我们希望,分析师和记者们提出的问题能增进我们的股东对自己投资的理解与认知。查理和我对接下来的问题将一无所知。肯定会有一些棘手的问题,而这正是我们喜欢的。我们不允许提多部分构成的复合式问题;我们希望给尽可能多的提问者一个向我们发问的机会。我们预计总共至少有 54 个问题,这意味着每位分析师和记者各提 6 个,观众提 18 个。(去年我们总共回答了 64 个问题。)现场观众提问者将通过 11 次抽签选出,抽签将在股东大会当天上午 8:15 举行。可以说,安装在主场馆和主分会场的 11 支麦克风,每支都将各自主持一轮抽签。
We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 25th through Saturday, May 7th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder either by presenting your meeting credential or a brokerage statement showing you own our stock. On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. On the upper level, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. I will join them and hope to have Ajit and Charlie there also. My friend, Ariel Hsing, will be in the mall as well on Sunday, taking on challengers at table tennis. I met Ariel when she was nine and even then I was unable to score a point against her. Now, she’s a junior at Princeton, having already represented the United States in the 2012 Olympics. If you don’t mind embarrassing yourself, test your skills against her, beginning at 1 p.m. Bill Gates and I will lead off and try to soften her up. Gorat’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 1st, serving from 1 p.m. until 10 p.m. To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before). As for my other favorite restaurant, Piccolo’s, I’m sad to report it closed. We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their email addresses are: Carol Loomis, the preeminent business journalist of her time, who may be e-mailed at [email protected]; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at [email protected]; and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at [email protected]. From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the six he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them. (In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is asked.) An accompanying set of questions will be asked by three analysts who follow Berkshire. This year the insurance specialist will be Cliff Gallant of Nomura Securities. Questions that deal with our non-insurance operations will come from Jonathan Brandt of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb and Gregg Warren of Morningstar. Our hope is that the analysts and journalists will ask questions that add to our owners’ understanding and knowledge of their investment. Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions headed our way. Some will be tough, for sure, and that’s the way we like it. Multi-part questions aren’t allowed; we want to give as many questioners as possible a shot at us. All told we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and for 18 from the audience. (Last year we had 64 in total.) The questioners from the audience will be chosen by means of 11 drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. on the morning of the annual meeting. Each of the 11 microphones installed in the arena and main overflow room will host, so to speak, a drawing.
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既然聊到股东知识增长的话题,容我提醒各位,查理和我坚信,所有股东都应同时获悉伯克希尔发布的新信息,如果可能,在任何交易发生之前,还应有足够的时间来消化和分析这些信息。正因如此,我们尽量在周五晚间或周六清晨发布财务数据,股东大会也始终安排在周六。我们不遵循与大型机构投资者或分析师一对一沟通的通行做法,而是像对待所有其他股东一样对待他们。对我们而言,没有谁比那些财力有限、却将自己大部分积蓄托付给我们的股东更为重要。
While I’m on the subject of our owners’ gaining knowledge, let me remind you that Charlie and I believe all shareholders should simultaneously have access to new information that Berkshire releases and, if possible, should also have adequate time to digest and analyze it before any trading takes place. That’s why we try to issue financial data late on Fridays or early on Saturdays and why our annual meeting is always held on a Saturday. We do not follow the common practice of talking one-on-one with large institutional investors or analysts, treating them instead as we do all other shareholders. There is no one more important to us than the shareholder of limited means who trusts us with a substantial portion of his savings.
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我时常称道我们运营经理们的功绩,这自有充分的理由。他们是名副其实的全明星,经营各自企业的态度,就好像那是他们家族唯一持有的资产。我还相信,我们经理人的股东意识,在大型上市公司的范畴里,称得上是最强的。我们的大多数经理人并没有养家糊口的经济压力,打出商业“本垒打”的乐趣对他们而言,与薪酬同等重要。然而,同样重要的,还有在公司总部与我共事的 24 位同仁。这个团队高效应对大量的 SEC 及其他监管要求,报送一份多达 30,400 页的联邦所得税申报表——比上一年多了 6,000 页!——统筹 3,530 份州税申报,回复无数股东和媒体问询,赶制年报,筹备全国规模最大的股东大会,协调董事会各项事务,并为这封信逐一核实事实——诸如此类的事,还能一直列下去。所有这些繁杂事务,他们都处理得兴致盎然,效率高得令人难以置信,让我的生活既轻松又愉快。他们的付出,不仅限于与伯克希尔直接相关的活动:例如去年,他们接待了 40 所大学(从 200 所申请学校中选出)派到奥马哈与我进行问答交流的学生。他们还处理我收到的各类请求,安排我的差旅,甚至替我搞定午餐的汉堡和薯条(当然是要涂满亨氏番茄酱的那种)。没有哪位 CEO 的日子比我更好过;我确实每天都觉得自己是跳着踢踏舞去上班的。事实上,我的工作一年比一年更有乐趣。2015 年,伯克希尔的营业收入增加了 160 亿美元。不过,请仔细看看对页的两张照片。上面那张出自去年的年报,是伯克希尔总部全体员工在圣诞午餐会上的合影;下面那张则是今年的圣诞照,同样的 25 人,站位也完全相同。2015 年,没有人加入我们,也没有人离开。而且,你们很有希望在明年仍会看到同样这 25 人的合影。你能想象另一家超大型公司——我们在全球范围内拥有 361,270 名员工——总部的员工队伍能保持这种稳定性吗?在伯克希尔,我们聘用到了一些出色的人——而他们一直留在了这里。此外,除非真的有必要,否则我们不会增加人手。这也正是你从未在伯克希尔读到过有关“重组”费用的原因。4 月 30 日,来奥马哈——资本主义的摇篮——见见我的这帮同事吧。他们是最棒的。
For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly All-Stars who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I also believe the mindset of our managers to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most of our managers have no financial need to work. The joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck. Equally important, however, are the 24 men and women who work with me at our corporate office. This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements, files a 30,400-page Federal income tax return – that’s up 6,000 pages from the prior year! – oversees the filing of 3,530 state tax returns, responds to countless shareholder and media inquiries, gets out the annual report, prepares for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinates the Board’s activities, fact-checks this letter – and the list goes on and on. They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: Last year, for example, they dealt with the 40 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who sent students to Omaha for a Q&A day with me. They also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers and french fries (smothered in Heinz ketchup, of course) for lunch. No CEO has it better; I truly do feel like tap dancing to work every day. In fact, my job becomes more fun every year. In 2015, Berkshire’s revenues increased by $16 billion. Look carefully, however, at the two pictures on the facing page. The top one is from last year’s report and shows the entire Berkshire home-office crew at our Christmas lunch. Below that photo is this year’s Christmas photo portraying the same 25 people identically positioned. In 2015, no one joined us, no one left. And the odds are good that you will see a photo of the same 25 next year. Can you imagine another very large company – we employ 361,270 people worldwide – enjoying that kind of employment stability at headquarters? At Berkshire we have hired some wonderful people – and they have stayed with us. Moreover, no one is hired unless he or she is truly needed. That’s why you’ve never read about “restructuring” charges at Berkshire. On April 30th, come to Omaha – the cradle of capitalism – and meet my gang. They are the best.
2016 年 2 月 27 日
February 27, 2016
沃伦·巴菲特 董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board
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前排——贝基·阿米克(Becki Amick)、莎伦·赫克(Sharon Heck)、梅利莎·霍克(Melissa Hawk)、贾莱娜·布斯(Jalayna Busse)、沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)、安吉·韦尔斯(Angie Wells)、艾丽莎·克鲁格(Alisa Krueger)、黛布·雷(Deb Ray)、卡丽·索瓦(Carrie Sova)、埃伦·施密特(Ellen Schmidt) 后排——特蕾西·布里特·库尔(Tracy Britt Cool)、珍妮弗·特塞伦蒂斯(Jennifer Tselentis)、泰德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler)、乔安妮·曼哈特(Joanne Manhart)、鲍勃·里森(Bob Reeson)、托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)、丹·雅克西奇(Dan Jaksich)、黛比·博萨内克(Debbie Bosanek)、马克·西斯利(Mark Sisley)、马克·汉堡(Marc Hamburg)、克尔比·哈姆(Kerby Ham)、马克·米勒德(Mark Millard)、艾莉森·巴拉德(Allyson Ballard)、斯泰茜·戈特沙尔克(Stacy Gottschalk)、蒂法妮·沃克特(Tiffany Vokt)
Front Row – Becki Amick, Sharon Heck, Melissa Hawk, Jalayna Busse, Warren Buffett, Angie Wells, Alisa Krueger, Deb Ray, Carrie Sova, Ellen Schmidt Back Row – Tracy Britt Cool, Jennifer Tselentis, Ted Weschler, Joanne Manhart, Bob Reeson, Todd Combs, Dan Jaksich, Debbie Bosanek, Mark Sisley, Marc Hamburg, Kerby Ham, Mark Millard, Allyson Ballard, Stacy Gottschalk, Tiffany Vokt
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